The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) as screening instruments for depression in patients with cancer.

PubMed

Hartung, Tim J; Friedrich, Michael; Johansen, Christoffer; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Faller, Herman; Koch, Uwe; Brähler, Elmar; Härter, Martin; Keller, Monika; Schulz, Holger; Wegscheider, Karl; Weis, Joachim; Mehnert, Anja

2017-11-01

Depression screening in patients with cancer is recommended by major clinical guidelines, although the evidence on individual screening tools is limited for this population. Here, the authors assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of 2 established screening instruments: the depression modules of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D), in a representative sample of patients with cancer. This multicenter study was conducted with a proportional, stratified, random sample of 2141 patients with cancer across all major tumor sites and treatment settings. The PHQ-9 and HADS-D were assessed and compared in terms of diagnostic accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition diagnosis of major depressive disorder using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview for Oncology as the criterion standard. The diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-9 and HADS-D was fair for diagnosing major depressive disorder, with areas under the ROC curves of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.79) and 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.77), respectively. The 2 questionnaires did not differ significantly in their areas under the ROC curves (P = .15). The PHQ-9 with a cutoff score ≥7 had the best screening performance, with a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 78%-89%) and a specificity of 61% (95% confidence interval, 59%-63%). The American Society of Clinical Oncology guideline screening algorithm had a sensitivity of 44% (95% confidence interval, 36%-51%) and a specificity of 84% (95% confidence interval, 83%-85%). In patients with cancer, the screening performance of both the PHQ-9 and the HADS-D was limited compared with a standardized diagnostic interview. Costs and benefits of routinely screening all patients with cancer should be weighed carefully. Cancer 2017;123:4236-4243. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Maternal steroid therapy for fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ciardulli, Andrea; D'Antonio, Francesco; Magro-Malosso, Elena R; Manzoli, Lamberto; Anisman, Paul; Saccone, Gabriele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2018-03-07

To explore the effect of maternal fluorinated steroid therapy on fetuses affected by second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. Studies reporting the outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block diagnosed on prenatal ultrasound and treated with fluorinated steroids compared with those not treated were included. The primary outcome was the overall progression of congenital atrioventricular block to either continuous or intermittent third-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth. Meta-analyses of proportions using random effect model and meta-analyses using individual data random-effect logistic regression were used. Five studies (71 fetuses) were included. The progression rate to congenital atrioventricular block at birth in fetuses treated with steroids was 52% (95% confidence interval 23-79) and in fetuses not receiving steroid therapy 73% (95% confidence interval 39-94). The overall rate of regression to either first-degree, intermittent first-/second-degree or sinus rhythm in fetuses treated with steroids was 25% (95% confidence interval 12-41) compared with 23% (95% confidence interval 8-44) in those not treated. Stable (constant) second-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth was present in 11% (95% confidence interval 2-27) of cases in the treated group and in none of the newborns in the untreated group, whereas complete regression to sinus rhythm occurred in 21% (95% confidence interval 6-42) of fetuses receiving steroids vs. 9% (95% confidence interval 0-41) of those untreated. There is still limited evidence as to the benefit of administered fluorinated steroids in terms of affecting outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Opioid Analgesics and Adverse Outcomes among Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Ishida, Julie H; McCulloch, Charles E; Steinman, Michael A; Grimes, Barbara A; Johansen, Kirsten L

2018-05-07

Patients on hemodialysis frequently experience pain and may be particularly vulnerable to opioid-related complications. However, data evaluating the risks of opioid use in patients on hemodialysis are limited. Using the US Renal Data System, we conducted a cohort study evaluating the association between opioid use (modeled as a time-varying exposure and expressed in standardized oral morphine equivalents) and time to first emergency room visit or hospitalization for altered mental status, fall, and fracture among 140,899 Medicare-covered adults receiving hemodialysis in 2011. We evaluated risk according to average daily total opioid dose (>60 mg, ≤60 mg, and per 60-mg dose increment) and specific agents (per 60-mg dose increment). The median age was 61 years old, 52% were men, and 50% were white. Sixty-four percent received opioids, and 17% had an episode of altered mental status (15,658 events), fall (7646 events), or fracture (4151 events) in 2011. Opioid use was associated with risk for all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner: altered mental status (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.34; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 1.78; hazard ratio, 1.29 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.33), fall (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.36; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.61; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.05), and fracture (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.33 to 1.56; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.44 to 1.89; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.05). All agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of altered mental status, and several agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of fall and fracture. Opioids were associated with adverse outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, and this risk was present even at lower dosing and for agents that guidelines have recommended for use. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and susceptibility to vitiligo: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Silky; Changotra, Harish

2017-01-01

Protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 gene, which translates to lymphoid tyrosine phosphatase, is considered to be a susceptibility gene marker associated with several autoimmune diseases. Several studies have demonstrated the association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo. However, these studies showed conflicting results. Meta-analysis of the same was conducted earlier that included fewer number of publications in their study. We performed a meta-analysis of a total of seven studies consisting of 2094 cases and 3613 controls to evaluate the possible association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C>T polymorphism with vitiligo susceptibility. We conducted a literature search in PubMed, Google Scholar and Dogpile for all published paper on protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and vitiligo risk till June 2016. Data analysis was performed by RevMan 5.3 and comprehensive meta-analysis v3.0 software. Meta-analysis showed an overall significant association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non- receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo in all models (allelic model [T vs. C]: odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [1.32-1.71], P< 0.001; dominant model [TT + CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [1.16-2.24], P = 0.004; recessive model [TT vs. CT + CC]: odds ratio = 4.82, 95% confidence interval [1.11-20.92], P = 0.04; homozygous model [TT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 5.34, 95% confidence interval [1.23-23.24], P = 0.03; co-dominant model [CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.52, 95% confidence interval [1.09-2.13], P = 0.01). No publication bias was detected in the funnel plot study. Limited ethnic-based studies, unable to satisfy data by gender or vitiligo-type are some limitations of the present meta-analysis. Stratifying data by ethnicity showed an association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T with vitiligo in European population (odds ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [1.34-1.75], P< 0.001) but not in Asian population (odds ratio = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [0.26-1.32], P = 0.2). In conclusion, protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858 T allele predisposes European individuals to vitiligo.

Combined metformin-clomiphene in clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Abu Hashim, Hatem; Foda, Osama; Ghayaty, Essam

2015-09-01

Our objective was to compare the effectiveness of metformin plus clomiphene citrate vs. gonadotrophins, laparoscopic ovarian diathermy, aromatase inhibitors, N-acetyl-cysteine and other insulin sensitizers+clomiphene for improving fertility outcomes in women with clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome. PubMed, SCOPUS and CENTRAL databases were searched until April 2014 with the key words: PCOS, polycystic ovary syndrome, metformin, clomiphene citrate, ovulation induction and pregnancy. The search was limited to articles conducted with humans and published in English. The PRISMA statement was followed. Twelve randomized controlled trials (n = 1411 women) were included. Ovulation and clinical pregnancy rates per woman randomized. Compared with gonadotrophins, the metformin+clomiphene combination resulted in significantly fewer ovulations (odds ratio 0.25; 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.41; p < 0.00001, 3 trials, I(2) = 85%, n = 323) and pregnancies (odds ratio 0.45; 95% confidence interval 0.27-0.75; p = 0.002, 3 trials, I(2) = 0%, n = 323). No significant differences were found when metformin+clomiphene was compared with laparoscopic ovarian diathermy (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.47; p = 0.62, 1 trial, n = 282; odds ratio 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.60-1.54; p = 0.88, 2 trials, I(2) = 0%, n = 332, for ovulation and pregnancy rates, respectively). Likewise, no differences were observed in comparison with aromatase inhibitors (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.58-1.34; p = 0.55, 3 trials, I(2) = 3%, n = 409; odds ratio 0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.36; p = 0.50, 2 trials, n = 309, for ovulation and pregnancy rates, respectively). There is evidence for the superiority of gonadotrophins, but the metformin+clomiphene combination is mainly relevant for clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome patients and, if not effective, a next step could be gonadotrophins. More attempts with metformin+clomiphene are only relevant if there is limited access to gonadotrophins. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Radiation therapy and surgery for fibrosarcoma in 33 cats.

PubMed

Cronin, K; Page, R L; Spodnick, G; Dodge, R; Hardie, E N; Price, G S; Ruslander, D; Thrall, D E

1998-01-01

Thirty-three cats with histologically confirmed fibrosarcomas were treated with radiation therapy followed by surgery. The median (95% confidence interval) disease free interval and overall survival were 398 (261,924) and 600 (lower limit 515) days, respectively. There were 19 treatment failures; 11 cats had only local recurrence, 4 cats developed metastatic disease, 3 cats had local recurrence followed by metastasis, and 1 cat developed simultaneous local and distant disease. Twelve cats are alive and disease free. Two cats died without evidence of treatment failure. The presence of tumor cells at the margin of resected tissue after radiation was the only variable which influenced treatment success. The median (95% confidence interval) disease free interval in 5 cats with tumor cells at the margin of the resected specimen was 112 (94,150) days versus 700 (lower limit 328) days for 26 cats with negative tumor margins, p < 0.0001. We did not identify a relationship between tumor volume, number of prior tumor excisions, concomitant use of chemotherapy or various descriptors of the radiation therapy technique and disease free interval.

A numerical approach to 14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits: best fits and confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaauw, Maarten; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Mauquoy, Dmitri; van der Plicht, Johannes; van Geel, Bas

2003-06-01

14C wiggle-match dating (WMD) of peat deposits uses the non-linear relationship between 14C age and calendar age to match the shape of a sequence of closely spaced peat 14C dates with the 14C calibration curve. A numerical approach to WMD enables the quantitative assessment of various possible wiggle-match solutions and of calendar year confidence intervals for sequences of 14C dates. We assess the assumptions, advantages, and limitations of the method. Several case-studies show that WMD results in more precise chronologies than when individual 14C dates are calibrated. WMD is most successful during periods with major excursions in the 14C calibration curve (e.g., in one case WMD could narrow down confidence intervals from 230 to 36 yr).

Transverse micro-erosion meter measurements; determining minimum sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenhaile, Alan S.; Lakhan, V. Chris

2011-11-01

Two transverse micro-erosion meter (TMEM) stations were installed in each of four rock slabs, a slate/shale, basalt, phyllite/schist, and sandstone. One station was sprayed each day with fresh water and the other with a synthetic sea water solution (salt water). To record changes in surface elevation (usually downwearing but with some swelling), 100 measurements (the pilot survey), the maximum for the TMEM used in this study, were made at each station in February 2010, and then at two-monthly intervals until February 2011. The data were normalized using Box-Cox transformations and analyzed to determine the minimum number of measurements needed to obtain station means that fall within a range of confidence limits of the population means, and the means of the pilot survey. The effect on the confidence limits of reducing an already small number of measurements (say 15 or less) is much greater than that of reducing a much larger number of measurements (say more than 50) by the same amount. There was a tendency for the number of measurements, for the same confidence limits, to increase with the rate of downwearing, although it was also dependent on whether the surface was treated with fresh or salt water. About 10 measurements often provided fairly reasonable estimates of rates of surface change but with fairly high percentage confidence intervals in slowly eroding rocks; however, many more measurements were generally needed to derive means within 10% of the population means. The results were tabulated and graphed to provide an indication of the approximate number of measurements required for given confidence limits, and the confidence limits that might be attained for a given number of measurements.

Does blood transfusion affect intermediate survival after coronary artery bypass surgery?

PubMed

Mikkola, R; Heikkinen, J; Lahtinen, J; Paone, R; Juvonen, T; Biancari, F

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of transfusion of blood products on intermediate outcome after coronary artery bypass surgery. Complete data on perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery were available from 2001 patients who were operated at our institution. Transfusion of any blood product (relative risk = 1.678, 95% confidence interval = 1.087-2.590) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The additive effect of each blood product on all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.401, 95% confidence interval = 1.203-1.630) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 1.553, 95% confidence interval = 1.273-1.895) was evident when the sum of each blood product was included in the regression models. However, when single blood products were included in the regression model, transfusion of fresh frozen plasma/Octaplas® was the only blood product associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.692, 95% confidence interval = 1.222-2.344) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 2.125, 95% confidence interval = 1.414-3.194). The effect of blood product transfusion was particularly evident during the first three postoperative months. Since follow-up was truncated at 3 months, transfusion of any blood product was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 2.998, 95% confidence interval = 1.053-0.537). Analysis of patients who survived or had at least 3 months of potential follow-up showed that transfusion of any blood product was not associated with a significantly increased risk of intermediate all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.430, 95% confidence interval = 0.880-2.323). Transfusion of any blood product is associated with a significant risk of all-cause and cardiac mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery. Such a risk seems to be limited to the early postoperative period and diminishes later on. Among blood products, perioperative use of fresh frozen plasma or Octaplas seems to be the main determinant of mortality.

Confidence limit calculation for antidotal potency ratio derived from lethal dose 50

PubMed Central

Manage, Ananda; Petrikovics, Ilona

2013-01-01

AIM: To describe confidence interval calculation for antidotal potency ratios using bootstrap method. METHODS: We can easily adapt the nonparametric bootstrap method which was invented by Efron to construct confidence intervals in such situations like this. The bootstrap method is a resampling method in which the bootstrap samples are obtained by resampling from the original sample. RESULTS: The described confidence interval calculation using bootstrap method does not require the sampling distribution antidotal potency ratio. This can serve as a substantial help for toxicologists, who are directed to employ the Dixon up-and-down method with the application of lower number of animals to determine lethal dose 50 values for characterizing the investigated toxic molecules and eventually for characterizing the antidotal protections by the test antidotal systems. CONCLUSION: The described method can serve as a useful tool in various other applications. Simplicity of the method makes it easier to do the calculation using most of the programming software packages. PMID:25237618

Priorities for treatment, care and information if faced with serious illness: a comparative population-based survey in seven European countries.

PubMed

Higginson, Irene J; Gomes, Barbara; Calanzani, Natalia; Gao, Wei; Bausewein, Claudia; Daveson, Barbara A; Deliens, Luc; Ferreira, Pedro L; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Simon, Steffen T; Cohen, Joachim; Harding, Richard

2014-02-01

Health-care costs are growing, with little population-based data about people's priorities for end-of-life care, to guide service development and aid discussions. We examined variations in people's priorities for treatment, care and information across seven European countries. Telephone survey of a random sample of households; we asked respondents their priorities if 'faced with a serious illness, like cancer, with limited time to live' and used multivariable logistic regressions to identify associated factors. Members of the general public aged ≥ 16 years residing in England, Flanders, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In total, 9344 individuals were interviewed. Most people chose 'improve quality of life for the time they had left', ranging from 57% (95% confidence interval: 55%-60%, Italy) to 81% (95% confidence interval: 79%-83%, Spain). Only 2% (95% confidence interval: 1%-3%, England) to 6% (95% confidence interval: 4%-7%, Flanders) said extending life was most important, and 15% (95% confidence interval: 13%-17%, Spain) to 40% (95% confidence interval: 37%-43%, Italy) said quality and extension were equally important. Prioritising quality of life was associated with higher education in all countries (odds ratio = 1.3 (Flanders) to 7.9 (Italy)), experience of caregiving or bereavement (England, Germany, Portugal), prioritising pain/symptom control over having a positive attitude and preferring death in a hospice/palliative care unit. Those prioritising extending life had the highest home death preference of all groups. Health status did not affect priorities. Across all countries, extending life was prioritised by a minority, regardless of health status. Treatment and care needs to be reoriented with patient education and palliative care becoming mainstream for serious conditions such as cancer.

Air pollution attributable postneonatal infant mortality in U.S. metropolitan areas: a risk assessment study

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Reinhard; Romieu, Isabelle; Medina, Sylvia; Schwartz, Joel; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino

2004-01-01

Background The impact of outdoor air pollution on infant mortality has not been quantified. Methods Based on exposure-response functions from a U.S. cohort study, we assessed the attributable risk of postneonatal infant mortality in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas related to particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10) as a surrogate of total air pollution. Results The estimated proportion of all cause mortality, sudden infant death syndrome (normal birth weight infants only) and respiratory disease mortality (normal birth weight) attributable to PM10 above a chosen reference value of 12.0 μg/m3 PM10 was 6% (95% confidence interval 3–11%), 16% (95% confidence interval 9–23%) and 24% (95% confidence interval 7–44%), respectively. The expected number of infant deaths per year in the selected areas was 106 (95% confidence interval 53–185), 79 (95% confidence interval 46–111) and 15 (95% confidence interval 5–27), respectively. Approximately 75% of cases were from areas where the current levels are at or below the new U.S. PM2.5 standard of 15 μg/m3 (equivalent to 25 μg/m3 PM10). In a country where infant mortality rates and air pollution levels are relatively low, ambient air pollution as measured by particulate matter contributes to a substantial fraction of infant death, especially for those due to sudden infant death syndrome and respiratory disease. Even if all counties would comply to the new PM2.5 standard, the majority of the estimated burden would remain. Conclusion Given the inherent limitations of risk assessments, further studies are needed to support and quantify the relationship between infant mortality and air pollution. PMID:15128459

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ruanpeng, Darin; Ungprasert, Patompong; Sangtian, Jutarat; Harindhanavudhi, Tasma

2017-09-01

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors could potentially alter calcium and phosphate homeostasis and may increase the risk of bone fracture. The current meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the fracture risk among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors. Randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors to placebo were identified. The risk ratios of fracture among patients who received SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo were extracted from each study. Pooled risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a random-effect, Mantel-Haenszel analysis. A total of 20 studies with 8286 patients treated with SGLT2 inhibitors were included. The pooled risk ratio of bone fracture in patients receiving SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo was 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.42-1.07). The pooled risk ratio for canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and empagliflozin was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.37-1.19), 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.22-3.18), and 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-1.59), respectively. Increased risk of bone fracture among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with placebo was not observed in this meta-analysis. However, the results were limited by short duration of treatment/follow-up and low incidence of the event of interest. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prospective study of physical activity and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer

PubMed Central

Leitzmann, Michael F; Moore, Steven C; Peters, Tricia M; Lacey, James V; Schatzkin, Arthur; Schairer, Catherine; Brinton, Louise A; Albanes, Demetrius

2008-01-01

Introduction To prospectively examine the relation of total, vigorous and non-vigorous physical activity to postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Methods We studied 32,269 women enrolled in the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project Follow-up Study. Usual physical activity (including household, occupational and leisure activities) throughout the previous year was assessed at baseline using a self-administered questionnaire. Postmenopausal breast cancer cases were identified through self-reports, death certificates and linkage to state cancer registries. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the relative risk and 95% confidence intervals of postmenopausal breast cancer associated with physical activity. Results During 269,792 person-years of follow-up from 1987 to 1998, 1506 new incident cases of postmenopausal breast cancer were ascertained. After adjusting for potential risk factors of breast cancer, a weak inverse association between total physical activity and postmenopausal breast cancer was suggested (relative risk comparing extreme quintiles = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.74 to 1.02; p for trend = 0.21). That relation was almost entirely contributed by vigorous activity (relative risk comparing extreme categories = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.74 to 1.02; p for trend = 0.08). The inverse association with vigorous activity was limited to women who were lean (ie, body mass index <25.0 kg/m2: relative risk = 0.68; 95% confidence interval = 0.54 to 0.85). In contrast, no association with vigorous activity was noted among women who were overweight or obese (ie, body mass index ≥ 25.0 kg/m2: relative risk = 1.18; 95% confidence interval = 0.93 to 1.49; p for interaction = 0.008). Non-vigorous activity showed no relation to breast cancer (relative risk comparing extreme quintiles = 1.02; 95% confidence interval = 0.87 to 1.19; p for trend = 0.86). The physical activity and breast cancer relation was not specific to a certain hormone receptor subtype. Conclusions In this cohort of postmenopausal women, breast cancer risk reduction appeared to be limited to vigorous forms of activity; it was apparent among normal weight women but not overweight women, and the relation did not vary by hormone receptor status. Our findings suggest that physical activity acts through underlying biological mechanisms that are independent of body weight control. PMID:18976449

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity.

PubMed

Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi

2011-06-01

For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.

Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Yunfei

This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

2007-01-01

A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

On the log-normality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: implications for extreme-event probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Riley, Pete

2015-01-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to −Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst≥850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42,2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst≥880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490,1187] nT.

Estimated Magnitudes and Recurrence Intervals of Peak Flows on the Mousam and Little Ossipee Rivers for the Flood of April 2007 in Southern Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Stewart, Gregory J.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Large amounts of rain fell on southern Maine from the afternoon of April 15, 2007, to the afternoon of April 16, 2007, causing substantial damage to houses, roads, and culverts. This report provides an estimate of the peak flows on two rivers in southern Maine--the Mousam River and the Little Ossipee River--because of their severe flooding. The April 2007 estimated peak flow of 9,230 ft3/s at the Mousam River near West Kennebunk had a recurrence interval between 100 and 500 years; 95-percent confidence limits for this flow ranged from 25 years to greater than 500 years. The April 2007 estimated peak flow of 8,220 ft3/s at the Little Ossipee River near South Limington had a recurrence interval between 100 and 500 years; 95-percent confidence limits for this flow ranged from 50 years to greater than 500 years.

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

PubMed

Cochrane, Shannon K; Chen, Shyh-Huei; Fitzgerald, Jodi D; Dodson, John A; Fielding, Roger A; King, Abby C; McDermott, Mary M; Manini, Todd M; Marsh, Anthony P; Newman, Anne B; Pahor, Marco; Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Ambrosius, Walter T; Buford, Thomas W

2017-12-02

Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500 steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P =0.001). At baseline, every 30 minutes spent performing activities ≥500 counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [ P =0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24 months), both the number of steps per day (per 500 steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [ P =0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500 counts per minute (per 30 minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [ P =0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score >10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Accuracy and precision of as-received implant torque wrenches.

PubMed

Britton-Vidal, Eduardo; Baker, Philip; Mettenburg, Donald; Pannu, Darshanjit S; Looney, Stephen W; Londono, Jimmy; Rueggeberg, Frederick A

2014-10-01

Previous implant torque evaluation did not determine if the target value fell within a confidence interval for the population mean of the test groups, disallowing determination of whether a specific type of wrench met a standardized goal value. The purpose of this study was to measure both the accuracy and precision of 2 different configurations (spring style and peak break) of as-received implant torque wrenches and compare the measured values to manufacturer-stated values. Ten wrenches from 4 manufacturers, representing a variety of torque-limiting mechanisms and specificity of use (with either a specific brand or universally with any brand of implant product). Drivers were placed into the wrench, and tightening torque was applied to reach predetermined values using a NIST-calibrated digital torque wrench. Five replications of measurement were made for each wrench and averaged to provide a single value from that instrument. The target torque value for each wrench brand was compared to the 95% confidence interval for the true population mean of measured values to see if it fell within the measured range. Only 1 wrench brand (Nobel Biocare) demonstrated the target torque value falling within the 95% confidence interval for the true population mean. For others, the targeted torque value fell above the 95% confidence interval (Straumann and Imtec) or below (Salvin Torq). Neither type of torque-limiting mechanism nor designation of a wrench to be used as a dedicated brand-only product or to be used as a universal product on many brands affected the ability of a wrench to deliver torque values where the true population mean included the target torque level. Copyright © 2014 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining benefits of an adrenergic and a muscarinic blocker in a single formulation - a pharmacokinetic evaluation.

PubMed

Nazarudheen, Shabana; Dey, Surajit; Kandhwal, Kirti; Arora, Rachna; Reyar, Simrit; Khuroo, Arshad H; Monif, Tausif; Madan, Sumit; Arora, Vinod

2013-11-01

A pharmacokinetic bioequivalence study was conducted in Asian subjects, to compare a fixed dose combination capsule single oral dose of alpha adrenoceptor blocker-Alfuzosin hydrochloride 10mg extended release and muscarinic antagonists-Solifenacin succinate 5mg against individually administered Xatral XL 10mg tablets (Alfuzosin) of Sanofi Synthelabo Limited, United Kingdom (UK) and Vesicare 5mg tablets (Solifenacin) of Astellas Pharma Limited, UK under fed conditions. Blood samples were collected pre-dose up to 72 h post dose for determination of plasma Alfuzosin and Solifenacin concentrations and calculation of the pharmacokinetic parameters. ANOVA was performed on the log (natural)-transformed pharmacokinetic parameters. A 90% confidence interval for the ratios of the test and reference product averages (least square means) were calculated for alfuzosin and solifenacin. The 90% confidence intervals obtained for alfuzosin for Cmax, AUC0-t and AUC0-∞ were 102.74-122.75%, 95.84-116.96% and 95.82-116.76%, respectively. The 90% confidence intervals obtained for Solifenacin for Cmax, and AUC0-72 were 89.55-97.91% and 90.47-99.38%, respectively. Based on the results, the fixed dose combination was concluded to be bioequivalent to individually administered products. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The freckle plot (daily turnaround time chart): a technique for timely and effective quality improvement of test turnaround times.

PubMed

Pellar, T G; Ward, P J; Tuckerman, J F; Henderson, A R

1993-06-01

Test turnaround times are often monitored on a monthly basis. However, such an interval usually means that not all causes for delay in test reporting can be unequivocally identified for institution of remedial action. We have devised a daily chart--the freckle plot--that graphically displays the test turnaround times by laboratory receipt time. Different symbols are used to designate specimens reported within the test's turnaround time limit, those within 10 min beyond that limit, and those well outside the limit. These categories are adjustable to suit different limits of stringency. Freckle plots are produced on a daily basis and can be used to track down causes for test delays. Using the 1-h turnaround time "stat" potassium test as a model, we found 16 causes for test delay, of which 9 were potentially remediable. By applying these remedies, we were able to increase test compliance, in the day shift, from 91.5% (95% confidence interval 88.8%-93.7%) to 97.6% (95% confidence interval 96.4-98.55%), which is significant at P < 10(-7). This daily plot is a useful quality assurance tool, supplementing the more conventional tests used to ensure laboratory quality improvement.

Characterization of Myocardial Repolarization Reserve in Adolescent Females With Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

Padfield, Gareth J; Escudero, Carolina A; DeSouza, Astrid M; Steinberg, Christian; Gibbs, Karen; Puyat, Joseph H; Lam, Pei Yoong; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Sherwin, Elizabeth; Potts, James E; Sandor, George; Krahn, Andrew D

2016-02-09

Patients with anorexia nervosa exhibit abnormal myocardial repolarization and are susceptible to sudden cardiac death. Exercise testing is useful in unmasking QT prolongation in disorders associated with abnormal repolarization. We characterized QT adaptation during exercise in anorexia. Sixty-one adolescent female patients with anorexia nervosa and 45 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers performed symptom-limited cycle ergometry during 12-lead ECG monitoring. Changes in the QT interval during exercise were measured, and QT/RR-interval slopes were determined by using mixed-effects regression modeling. Patients had significantly lower body mass index than controls; however, resting heart rates and QT/QTc intervals were similar at baseline. Patients had shorter exercise times (13.7±4.5 versus 20.6±4.5 minutes; P<0.001) and lower peak heart rates (159±20 versus 184±9 beats/min; P<0.001). The mean QTc intervals were longer at peak exercise in patients (442±29 versus 422±19 ms; P<0.001). During submaximal exertion at comparable heart rates (114±6 versus 115±11 beats/min; P=0.54), the QTc interval had prolonged significantly more in patients than controls (37±28 versus 24±25 ms; P<0.016). The RR/QT slope, best described by a curvilinear relationship, was more gradual in patients than in controls (13.4; 95% confidence interval, 12.8-13.9 versus 15.8; 95% confidence interval, 15.3-16.4 ms QT change per 10% change in RR interval; P<0.001) and steepest in patients within the highest body mass index tertile versus the lowest (13.9; 95% confidence interval, 12.9-14.9 versus 12.3; 95% confidence interval, 11.3-13.3; P=0.026). Despite the absence of manifest QT prolongation, adolescent anorexic females have impaired repolarization reserve in comparison with healthy controls. Further study may identify impaired QT dynamics as a risk factor for arrhythmias in anorexia nervosa. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

2017-01-01

Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

Estimation of parameters of dose volume models and their confidence limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Luijk, P.; Delvigne, T. C.; Schilstra, C.; Schippers, J. M.

2003-07-01

Predictions of the normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) for the ranking of treatment plans are based on fits of dose-volume models to clinical and/or experimental data. In the literature several different fit methods are used. In this work frequently used methods and techniques to fit NTCP models to dose response data for establishing dose-volume effects, are discussed. The techniques are tested for their usability with dose-volume data and NTCP models. Different methods to estimate the confidence intervals of the model parameters are part of this study. From a critical-volume (CV) model with biologically realistic parameters a primary dataset was generated, serving as the reference for this study and describable by the NTCP model. The CV model was fitted to this dataset. From the resulting parameters and the CV model, 1000 secondary datasets were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. All secondary datasets were fitted to obtain 1000 parameter sets of the CV model. Thus the 'real' spread in fit results due to statistical spreading in the data is obtained and has been compared with estimates of the confidence intervals obtained by different methods applied to the primary dataset. The confidence limits of the parameters of one dataset were estimated using the methods, employing the covariance matrix, the jackknife method and directly from the likelihood landscape. These results were compared with the spread of the parameters, obtained from the secondary parameter sets. For the estimation of confidence intervals on NTCP predictions, three methods were tested. Firstly, propagation of errors using the covariance matrix was used. Secondly, the meaning of the width of a bundle of curves that resulted from parameters that were within the one standard deviation region in the likelihood space was investigated. Thirdly, many parameter sets and their likelihood were used to create a likelihood-weighted probability distribution of the NTCP. It is concluded that for the type of dose response data used here, only a full likelihood analysis will produce reliable results. The often-used approximations, such as the usage of the covariance matrix, produce inconsistent confidence limits on both the parameter sets and the resulting NTCP values.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

PubMed

Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

2017-11-10

In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2011-04-15

The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Deborah A.

Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

SLDAssay: A software package and web tool for analyzing limiting dilution assays.

PubMed

Trumble, Ilana M; Allmon, Andrew G; Archin, Nancie M; Rigdon, Joseph; Francis, Owen; Baldoni, Pedro L; Hudgens, Michael G

2017-11-01

Serial limiting dilution (SLD) assays are used in many areas of infectious disease related research. This paper presents SLDAssay, a free and publicly available R software package and web tool for analyzing data from SLD assays. SLDAssay computes the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for the concentration of target cells, with corresponding exact and asymptotic confidence intervals. Exact and asymptotic goodness of fit p-values, and a bias-corrected (BC) MLE are also provided. No other publicly available software currently implements the BC MLE or the exact methods. For validation of SLDAssay, results from Myers et al. (1994) are replicated. Simulations demonstrate the BC MLE is less biased than the MLE. Additionally, simulations demonstrate that exact methods tend to give better confidence interval coverage and goodness-of-fit tests with lower type I error than the asymptotic methods. Additional advantages of using exact methods are also discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

PubMed

Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

2015-06-01

Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

[Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

PubMed

Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

2012-04-01

Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

The association of ambient air pollution and traffic exposures with selected congenital anomalies in the San Joaquin Valley of California.

PubMed

Padula, Amy M; Tager, Ira B; Carmichael, Suzan L; Hammond, S Katharine; Lurmann, Frederick; Shaw, Gary M

2013-05-15

Congenital anomalies are a leading cause of infant mortality and are important contributors to subsequent morbidity. Studies suggest associations between environmental contaminants and some anomalies, although evidence is limited. We aimed to investigate whether ambient air pollutant and traffic exposures in early gestation contribute to the risk of selected congenital anomalies in the San Joaquin Valley of California, 1997-2006. Seven exposures and 5 outcomes were included for a total of 35 investigated associations. We observed increased odds of neural tube defects when comparing the highest with the lowest quartile of exposure for several pollutants after adjusting for maternal race/ethnicity, education, and multivitamin use. The adjusted odds ratio for neural tube defects among those with the highest carbon monoxide exposure was 1.9 (95% confidence interval: 1.1, 3.2) compared with those with the lowest exposure, and there was a monotonic exposure-response across quartiles. The highest quartile of nitrogen oxide exposure was associated with neural tube defects (adjusted odds ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 2.8). The adjusted odds ratio for the highest quartile of nitrogen dioxide exposure was 1.7 (95% confidence interval: 1.1, 2.7). Ozone was associated with decreased odds of neural tube defects. Our results extend the limited body of evidence regarding air pollution exposure and adverse birth outcomes.

The Association of Ambient Air Pollution and Traffic Exposures With Selected Congenital Anomalies in the San Joaquin Valley of California

PubMed Central

Padula, Amy M.; Tager, Ira B.; Carmichael, Suzan L.; Hammond, S. Katharine; Lurmann, Frederick; Shaw, Gary M.

2013-01-01

Congenital anomalies are a leading cause of infant mortality and are important contributors to subsequent morbidity. Studies suggest associations between environmental contaminants and some anomalies, although evidence is limited. We aimed to investigate whether ambient air pollutant and traffic exposures in early gestation contribute to the risk of selected congenital anomalies in the San Joaquin Valley of California, 1997–2006. Seven exposures and 5 outcomes were included for a total of 35 investigated associations. We observed increased odds of neural tube defects when comparing the highest with the lowest quartile of exposure for several pollutants after adjusting for maternal race/ethnicity, education, and multivitamin use. The adjusted odds ratio for neural tube defects among those with the highest carbon monoxide exposure was 1.9 (95% confidence interval: 1.1, 3.2) compared with those with the lowest exposure, and there was a monotonic exposure-response across quartiles. The highest quartile of nitrogen oxide exposure was associated with neural tube defects (adjusted odds ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 2.8). The adjusted odds ratio for the highest quartile of nitrogen dioxide exposure was 1.7 (95% confidence interval: 1.1, 2.7). Ozone was associated with decreased odds of neural tube defects. Our results extend the limited body of evidence regarding air pollution exposure and adverse birth outcomes. PMID:23538941

Do physiotherapy staff record treatment time accurately? An observational study.

PubMed

Bagley, Pam; Hudson, Mary; Green, John; Forster, Anne; Young, John

2009-09-01

To assess the reliability of duration of treatment time measured by physiotherapy staff in early-stage stroke patients. Comparison of physiotherapy staff's recording of treatment sessions and video recording. Rehabilitation stroke unit in a general hospital. Thirty-nine stroke patients without trunk control or who were unable to stand with an erect trunk without the support of two therapists recruited to a randomized trial evaluating the Oswestry Standing Frame. Twenty-six physiotherapy staff who were involved in patient treatment. Contemporaneous recording by physiotherapy staff of treatment time (in minutes) compared with video recording. Intraclass correlation with 95% confidence interval and the Bland and Altman method for assessing agreement by calculating the mean difference (standard deviation; 95% confidence interval), reliability coefficient and 95% limits of agreement for the differences between the measurements. The mean duration (standard deviation, SD) of treatment time recorded by physiotherapy staff was 32 (11) minutes compared with 25 (9) minutes as evidenced in the video recording. The mean difference (SD) was -6 (9) minutes (95% confidence interval (CI) -9 to -3). The reliability coefficient was 18 minutes and the 95% limits of agreement were -24 to 12 minutes. Intraclass correlation coefficient for agreement between the two methods was 0.50 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.73). Physiotherapy staff's recording of duration of treatment time was not reliable and was systematically greater than the video recording.

Stapled versus handsewn methods for colorectal anastomosis surgery.

PubMed

Lustosa, S A; Matos, D; Atallah, A N; Castro, A A

2001-01-01

Randomized controlled trials comparing stapled with handsewn colorectal anastomosis have not shown either technique to be superior, perhaps because individual studies lacked statistical power. A systematic review, with pooled analysis of results, might provide a more definitive answer. To compare the safety and effectiveness of stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. The following primary hypothesis was tested: the stapled technique is more effective because it decreases the level of complications. The RCT register of the Cochrane Review Group was searched for any trial or reference to a relevant trial (published, in-press, or in progress). All publications were sought through computerised searches of EMBASE, LILACS, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trials Database, and through letters to industrial companies and authors. There were no limits upon language, date, or other criteria. All randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in which stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis were compared. Adult patients submitted electively to colorectal anastomosis. Endoluminal circular stapler and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. a) Mortality b) Overall Anastomotic Dehiscence c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence e) Stricture f) Anastomotic Haemorrhage g) Reoperation h) Wound Infection i) Anastomosis Duration j) Hospital Stay. Data were independently extracted by the two reviewers (SASL, DM) and cross-checked. The methodological quality of each trial was assessed by the same two reviewers. Details of the randomization (generation and concealment), blinding, whether an intention-to-treat analysis was done, and the number of patients lost to follow-up were recorded. The results of each RCT were summarised on an intention-to-treat basis in 2 x 2 tables for each outcome. External validity was defined by characteristics of the participants, the interventions and the outcomes. The RCTs were stratified according to the level of colorectal anastomosis. The Risk Difference method (random effects model) and NNT for dichotomous outcomes measures and weighted mean difference for continuous outcomes measures, with the corresponding 95% confidence interval, were presented in this review. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated by using funnel plot and chi-square testing. Of the 1233 patients enrolled ( in 9 trials), 622 were treated with stapled, and 611 with manual, suture. The following main results were obtained: a) Mortality: result based on 901 patients; Risk Difference - 0.6% Confidence Interval -2.8% to +1.6%. b) Overall Dehiscence: result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference 0.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.0% to +5.3%. c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference -1.4%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.2 to +2.3%. d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 825 patients; Risk Difference 1.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -4.8% to +7.3%. e) Stricture: result based on 1042 patients; Risk Difference 4.6%, 95% Confidence Interval 1.2% to 8.1%. Number needed to treat 17, 95% confidence interval 12 to 31. f) Anastomotic Hemorrhage: result based on 662 patients; Risk Difference 2.7%, 95% Confidence Interval - 0.1% to +5.5%. g) Reoperation: result based on 544 patients; Risk Difference 3.9%, 95% Confidence Interval 0.3% to 7.4%. h) Wound Infection: result based on 567 patients; Risk Difference 1.0%, 95% Confidence Interval -2.2% to +4.3%. i) Anastomosis duration: result based on one study (159 patients); Weighted Mean Difference -7.6 minutes, 95% Confidence Interval -12.9 to -2.2 minutes. j) Hospital Stay: result based on one study (159 patients), Weighted Mean Difference 2.0 days, 95% Confidence Interval -3.27 to +7.2 days. The evidence found was insufficient to demonstrate any superiority of stapled over handsewn techniques in colorectal anastomosis, regardless of the level of anastomosis.

Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

2014-01-01

Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

Radon exposure and cancers other than lung cancer in Swedish iron miners.

PubMed Central

Darby, S C; Radford, E P; Whitley, E

1995-01-01

Data are presented on the risks of cancers other than lung cancer in a cohort of iron miners from northern Sweden occupationally exposed to elevated levels of the radioactive gas radon. Compared with rates for the four northernmost counties of Sweden, mortality was increased for all cancers other than lung cancer (ratio of observed to expected deaths 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.41), stomach cancer (ratio of observed to expected deaths 1.45, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.98), and rectal cancer (ratio of observed to expected deaths 1.94, 95% confidence interval 1.03-3.31). Despite these overall increases, mortality was not significantly associated with cumulative exposure to radon, either for all cancers other than lung cancer or for any site of cancer other than lung cancer individually. However, the data from this cohort on its own have limited power; and for several sites of cancer the data in this study would be consistent with a radon-related increase. Further study of cancers other than lung cancer in populations exposed to radon is required. PMID:7614946

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random-effects meta-analysis using generalised heterogeneity statistics: should we use unequal tails?

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack

2016-09-07

Confidence intervals for the between study variance are useful in random-effects meta-analyses because they quantify the uncertainty in the corresponding point estimates. Methods for calculating these confidence intervals have been developed that are based on inverting hypothesis tests using generalised heterogeneity statistics. Whilst, under the random effects model, these new methods furnish confidence intervals with the correct coverage, the resulting intervals are usually very wide, making them uninformative. We discuss a simple strategy for obtaining 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance with a markedly reduced width, whilst retaining the nominal coverage probability. Specifically, we consider the possibility of using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics with unequal tail probabilities, where the tail probability used to compute the upper bound is greater than 2.5 %. This idea is assessed using four real examples and a variety of simulation studies. Supporting analytical results are also obtained. Our results provide evidence that using unequal tail probabilities can result in shorter 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance. We also show some further results for a real example that illustrates how shorter confidence intervals for the between-study variance can be useful when performing sensitivity analyses for the average effect, which is usually the parameter of primary interest. We conclude that using unequal tail probabilities when computing 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance, when using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics, can result in shorter confidence intervals. We suggest that those who find the case for using unequal tail probabilities convincing should use the '1-4 % split', where greater tail probability is allocated to the upper confidence bound. The 'width-optimal' interval that we present deserves further investigation.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

Utilization of sentinel lymph node biopsy for uterine cancer.

PubMed

Wright, Jason D; Cham, Stephanie; Chen, Ling; Burke, William M; Hou, June Y; Tergas, Ana I; Desai, Vrunda; Hu, Jim C; Ananth, Cande V; Neugut, Alfred I; Hershman, Dawn L

2017-06-01

To limit the potential short and long-term morbidity of lymphadenectomy, sentinel lymph node biopsy has been proposed for endometrial cancer. The principle of sentinel lymph node biopsy relies on removal of a small number of lymph nodes that are the first drainage basins from a tumor and thus the most likely to harbor tumor cells. While the procedure may reduce morbidity, efficacy data are limited and little is known about how commonly the procedure is performed. We examined the patterns and predictors of use of sentinel lymph node biopsy and outcomes of the procedure in women with endometrial cancer who underwent hysterectomy. We used the Perspective database to identify women with uterine cancer who underwent hysterectomy from 2011 through 2015. Billing and charge codes were used to classify women as having undergone lymphadenectomy, sentinel lymph node biopsy, or no nodal assessment. Multivariable models were used to examine clinical, demographic, and hospital characteristics with use of sentinel lymph node biopsy. Length of stay and cost were compared among the different methods of nodal assessment. Among 28,362 patients, 9327 (32.9%) did not undergo nodal assessment, 17,669 (62.3%) underwent lymphadenectomy, and 1366 (4.8%) underwent sentinel lymph node biopsy. Sentinel lymph node biopsy was performed in 1.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.0-1.6%) of abdominal hysterectomies, 3.4% (95% confidence interval, 2.7-4.1%) of laparoscopic hysterectomies, and 7.5% (95% confidence interval, 7.0-8.0%) of robotic-assisted hysterectomies. In a multivariable model, more recent year of surgery was associated with performance of sentinel lymph node biopsy. Compared to abdominal hysterectomy, those undergoing laparoscopic (adjusted risk ratio, 2.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.89-3.18) and robotic-assisted (adjusted risk ratio, 2.69; 95% confidence interval, 2.19-3.30) hysterectomy were more likely to undergo sentinel lymph node biopsy. Among women who underwent minimally invasive hysterectomy, length of stay and cost were lower for sentinel lymph node biopsy compared to lymphadenectomy. The use of sentinel lymph node biopsy for endometrial cancer increased from 2011 through 2015. The increased use was most notable in women who underwent a robotic-assisted hysterectomy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B

2007-02-01

Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

Invasive adenocarcinoma with bronchoalveolar features: a population-based evaluation of the extent of resection in bronchoalveolar cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Whitson, Bryan A; Groth, Shawn S; Andrade, Rafael S; Mitiek, Mohi O; Maddaus, Michael A; D'Cunha, Jonathan

2012-03-01

We used a population-based data set to assess the association between the extent of pulmonary resection for bronchoalveolar carcinoma and survival. The reports thus far have been limited to small, institutional series. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1988-2007), we identified patients with bronchoalveolar carcinoma who had undergone wedge resection, segmentectomy, or lobectomy. The bronchoalveolar carcinoma histologic findings were mucinous, nonmucinous, mixed, not otherwise specified, and alveolar carcinoma. To adjust for potential confounders, we used a Cox proportional hazards regression model. A total of 6810 patients met the inclusion criteria. Compared with the sublobar resections (wedge resections and segmentectomies), lobectomy conferred superior 5-year overall (59.5% vs 43.9%) and cancer-specific (67.1% vs 53.1%) survival (P < .0001). After adjusting for potential confounding patient and tumor characteristics, we found that patients who underwent an anatomic resection had significantly better overall (segmentectomy: hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.81; lobectomy: hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.57) and cancer-specific (segmentectomy: hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.75; lobectomy: hazard ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.40-0.53) survival compared with patients who underwent wedge resection. Additionally, gender, race, tumor size, and degree of tumor de-differentiation were negative prognostic factors. Our results were unchanged when we limited our analysis to early-stage disease. Using a population-based data set, we found that anatomic resections for bronchoalveolar carcinoma conferred superior overall and cancer-specific survival rates compared with wedge resection. Bronchoalveolar carcinoma's propensity for intraparenchymal spread might be the underlying biologic basis of our observation of improved survival after anatomic resection. Copyright © 2012 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Implementation of a pilot accountable care organization payment model and the use of discretionary and nondiscretionary cardiovascular care.

PubMed

Colla, Carrie H; Goodney, Philip P; Lewis, Valerie A; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Meara, Ellen

2014-11-25

Accountable care organizations (ACOs) seek to reduce growth in healthcare spending while ensuring high-quality care. We hypothesized that accountable care organization implementation would selectively limit the use of discretionary cardiovascular care (defined as care occurring in the absence of indications such as myocardial infarction or stroke), while maintaining high-quality care, such as nondiscretionary cardiovascular imaging and procedures. The intervention group was composed of fee-for-service Medicare patients (n=819 779) from 10 groups participating in a Medicare pilot accountable care organization, the Physician Group Practice Demonstration (PGPD). Matched controls were patients (n=934 621) from nonparticipating groups in the same regions. We compared use of cardiovascular care before (2002-2004) and after (2005-2009) PGPD implementation, studying both discretionary and nondiscretionary carotid and coronary imaging and procedures. Our main outcome measure was the difference in the proportion of patients treated with imaging and procedures among patients of PGPD practices compared with patients in control practices, before and after PGPD implementation (difference-in-difference). For discretionary imaging, the difference-in-difference between PGPD practices and controls was not statistically significant for discretionary carotid imaging (0.17%; 95% confidence interval, -0.51% to 0.85%; P=0.595) or discretionary coronary imaging (-0.19%; 95% confidence interval, -0.73% to 0.35%; P=0.468). Similarly, the difference-in-difference was also minimal for discretionary carotid revascularization (0.003%; 95% confidence interval, -0.008% to 0.002%; P=0.705) and coronary revascularization (-0.02%; 95% confidence interval, -0.11% to 0.07%; P=0.06). The difference-in-difference associated with PGPD implementation was also essentially 0 for nondiscretionary cardiovascular imaging or procedures. Implementation of a pilot accountable care organization did not limit the use of discretionary or nondiscretionary cardiovascular care in 10 large health systems. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

On the Log-Normality of Historical Magnetic-Storm Intensity Statistics: Implications for Extreme-Event Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to -Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, -Dst > 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a -Dst > 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT. This work is partially motivated by United States National Science and Technology Council and Committee on Space Research and International Living with a Star priorities and strategic plans for the assessment and mitigation of space-weather hazards.

Test Accuracy of Informant-Based Cognitive Screening Tests for Diagnosis of Dementia and Multidomain Cognitive Impairment in Stroke.

PubMed

McGovern, Aine; Pendlebury, Sarah T; Mishra, Nishant K; Fan, Yuhua; Quinn, Terence J

2016-02-01

Poststroke cognitive assessment can be performed using standardized questionnaires designed for family or care givers. We sought to describe the test accuracy of such informant-based assessments for diagnosis of dementia/multidomain cognitive impairment in stroke. We performed a systematic review using a sensitive search strategy across multidisciplinary electronic databases. We created summary test accuracy metrics and described reporting and quality using STARDdem and Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) tools, respectively. From 1432 titles, we included 11 studies. Ten papers used the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). Four studies described IQCODE for diagnosis of poststroke dementia (n=1197); summary sensitivity: 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.93); summary specificty: 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.93). Five studies described IQCODE as tool for predicting future dementia (n=837); summary sensitivity: 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.83); summary specificity: 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-1.00). All papers had issues with at least 1 aspect of study reporting or quality. There is a limited literature on informant cognitive assessments in stroke. IQCODE as a diagnostic tool has test properties similar to other screening tools, IQCODE as a prognostic tool is specific but insensitive. We found no papers describing test accuracy of informant tests for diagnosis of prestroke cognitive decline, few papers on poststroke dementia and all included papers had issues with potential bias. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging using sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction for detection of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ma, Heng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Jing; Ge, Lan; An, Jing; Tang, Qing; Li, Han; Zhang, Yu; Chen, David; Wang, Yong; Liu, Jiabin; Liang, Zhigang; Lin, Kai; Jin, Lixin; Bi, Xiaoming; Li, Kuncheng; Li, Debiao

2012-04-15

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction (SW-CG-HYPR) allows whole left ventricular coverage, improved temporal and spatial resolution and signal/noise ratio, and reduced cardiac motion-related image artifacts. The accuracy of this technique for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been determined in a large number of patients. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR in patients with suspected CAD. A total of 50 consecutive patients who were scheduled for coronary angiography with suspected CAD underwent myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR at 3.0 T. The perfusion defects were interpreted qualitatively by 2 blinded observers and were correlated with x-ray angiographic stenoses ≥50%. The prevalence of CAD was 56%. In the per-patient analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of SW-CG-HYPR was 96% (95% confidence interval 82% to 100%), 82% (95% confidence interval 60% to 95%), 87% (95% confidence interval 70% to 96%), 95% (95% confidence interval 74% to100%), and 90% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%), respectively. In the per-vessel analysis, the corresponding values were 98% (95% confidence interval 91% to 100%), 89% (95% confidence interval 80% to 94%), 86% (95% confidence interval 76% to 93%), 99% (95% confidence interval 93% to 100%), and 93% (95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), respectively. In conclusion, myocardial perfusion MRI using SW-CG-HYPR allows whole left ventricular coverage and high resolution and has high diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An approach for sample size determination of average bioequivalence based on interval estimation.

PubMed

Chiang, Chieh; Hsiao, Chin-Fu

2017-03-30

In 1992, the US Food and Drug Administration declared that two drugs demonstrate average bioequivalence (ABE) if the log-transformed mean difference of pharmacokinetic responses lies in (-0.223, 0.223). The most widely used approach for assessing ABE is the two one-sided tests procedure. More specifically, ABE is concluded when a 100(1 - 2α) % confidence interval for mean difference falls within (-0.223, 0.223). As known, bioequivalent studies are usually conducted by crossover design. However, in the case that the half-life of a drug is long, a parallel design for the bioequivalent study may be preferred. In this study, a two-sided interval estimation - such as Satterthwaite's, Cochran-Cox's, or Howe's approximations - is used for assessing parallel ABE. We show that the asymptotic joint distribution of the lower and upper confidence limits is bivariate normal, and thus the sample size can be calculated based on the asymptotic power so that the confidence interval falls within (-0.223, 0.223). Simulation studies also show that the proposed method achieves sufficient empirical power. A real example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

The Effect of Geographic Location on Circannual Adrenocorticotropic Hormone Plasma Concentrations in Horses in Australia.

PubMed

Secombe, C J; Tan, R H H; Perara, D I; Byrne, D P; Watts, S P; Wearn, J G

2017-09-01

Longitudinal evaluation of plasma endogenous ACTH concentration in clinically normal horses has not been investigated in the Southern Hemisphere. To longitudinally determine monthly upper reference limits for plasma ACTH in 2 disparate Australian geographic locations and to examine whether location affected the circannual rhythm of endogenous ACTH in the 2 groups of horses over a 12-month period. Clinically normal horses <20 years of age from 4 properties (institutional herd and client owned animals) in Perth (n = 40) and Townsville (n = 41) were included in the study. A prospective longitudinal descriptive study to determine the upper reference limit and confidence intervals for plasma ACTH in each geographic location using the ASVCP reference interval (RI) guidelines, for individual months and monthly groupings for 12 consecutive months. Plasma endogenous ACTH concentrations demonstrated a circannual rhythm. The increase in endogenous ACTH was not confined to the autumnal months but was associated with changes in photoperiod. During the quiescent period, plasma ACTH concentrations were lower, ≤43 pg/mL (upper limit of the 90% confidence interval (CI)) in horses from Perth and ≤67 pg/mL (upper limit of the 90% CI) in horses from Townsville, than at the acrophase, ≤94 pg/mL (upper limit of the 90% CI) in horses from Perth, ≤101 pg/mL (upper limit of the 90% CI) in horses from Townsville. Circannual rhythms of endogenous ACTH concentrations vary between geographic locations, this could be due to changes in photoperiod or other unknown factors, and upper reference limits should be determined for specific locations. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Hypnotherapy for disability-related pain: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bowker, Emma; Dorstyn, Diana

2016-04-01

Hypnotherapy can address the biopsychosocial aspects of disability-related pain, although the available evidence is limited in quality and quantity. Meta-analytic techniques were utilised to evaluate 10 controlled studies. Hypnotherapy produced significant short-term improvements in fatigue, pain experience and affect. However, a lack of significance was noted at 3- to 6-month follow-up. A beneficial effect size (d(w)= 0.53; confidence interval = 0.28-0.84) in comparison to control conditions was reported, although comparability with other cognitive-behavioural treatments could not be confirmed across the few studies reporting this data (d(w)= 0.06; confidence interval = -0.33 to 0.45). The findings highlight the need for further controlled and longitudinal research in this area. © The Author(s) 2014.

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

PubMed Central

Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

PubMed

Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

PubMed Central

Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

Confidence in Altman-Bland plots: a critical review of the method of differences.

PubMed

Ludbrook, John

2010-02-01

1. Altman and Bland argue that the virtue of plotting differences against averages in method-comparison studies is that 95% confidence limits for the differences can be constructed. These allow authors and readers to judge whether one method of measurement could be substituted for another. 2. The technique is often misused. So I have set out, by statistical argument and worked examples, to advise pharmacologists and physiologists how best to construct these limits. 3. First, construct a scattergram of differences on averages, then calculate the line of best fit for the linear regression of differences on averages. If the slope of the regression is shown to differ from zero, there is proportional bias. 4. If there is no proportional bias and if the scatter of differences is uniform (homoscedasticity), construct 'classical' 95% confidence limits. 5. If there is proportional bias yet homoscedasticity, construct hyperbolic 95% confidence limits (prediction interval) around the line of best fit. 6. If there is proportional bias and the scatter of values for differences increases progressively as the average values increase (heteroscedasticity), log-transform the raw values from the two methods and replot differences against averages. If this eliminates proportional bias and heteroscedasticity, construct 'classical' 95% confidence limits. Otherwise, construct horizontal V-shaped 95% confidence limits around the line of best fit of differences on averages or around the weighted least products line of best fit to the original data. 7. In designing a method-comparison study, consult a qualified biostatistician, obey the rules of randomization and make replicate observations.

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Involving American Indians and medically underserved rural populations in cancer clinical trials

PubMed Central

Guadagnolo, B Ashleigh; Petereit, Daniel G; Helbig, Petra; Koop, David; Kussman, Patricia; Dunn, Emily Fox; Patnaik, Asha

2010-01-01

Purpose To assess cancer clinical trial recruitment and reasons for nonaccrual among a rural, medically underserved population served by a community-based cancer care center. Methods We prospectively tracked clinical trial enrollment incidence among all new patients presenting at the Rapid City Regional Cancer Care Institute. Evaluating physicians completed questionnaires for each patient regarding clinical trial enrollment status and primary reasons for nonenrollment. Patients who identified as American Indian were referred to a program where patients were assisted in navigating the medical system by trained, culturally competent staff. Results Between September 2006 and January 2008, 891 new cancer patients were evaluated. Seventy-eight patients (9%; 95% confidence intervals, 7–11%) were enrolled on a clinical treatment trial. For 73% (95% confidence intervals, 69–75%) of patients (646 of 891) lack of relevant protocol availability or protocol inclusion criteria restrictiveness was the reason for nonenrollment. Only 45 (5%; 95% confidence intervals, 4–7%) patients refused enrollment on a trial. Of the 78 enrolled on a trial, 6 (8%; 95% confidence intervals, 3–16%) were American Indian. Three additional American Indian patients were enrolled under a nontreatment cancer control trial, bringing the total percentage enrolled of the 94 American Indians who presented to the clinic to 10% (95% confidence intervals, 5–17%). Limitations Eligibility rates were unable to be calculated and cross validation of the number in the cohort via registries or ICD-9 codes was not performed. Conclusion Clinical trial participation in this medically underserved population was low overall, but approximately 3-fold higher than reported national accrual rates. Lack of availability of protocols for common cancer sites as well as stringent protocol inclusion criteria were the primary obstacles to clinical trial enrollment. Targeted interventions using a Patient Navigation program were used to engage AI patients and may have resulted in higher clinical trial enrollment among this racial/ethnic group. PMID:19933720

More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for correlating two autocorrelated climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olafsdottir, Kristin B.; Mudelsee, Manfred

2013-04-01

Estimation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between two time series to evaluate the influences of one time depended variable on another is one of the most often used statistical method in climate sciences. Various methods are used to estimate confidence interval to support the correlation point estimate. Many of them make strong mathematical assumptions regarding distributional shape and serial correlation, which are rarely met. More robust statistical methods are needed to increase the accuracy of the confidence intervals. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, 2003), where the main intention was to get an accurate confidence interval for correlation coefficient between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the process that generated the data into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy for smaller data sizes can be improved. Here we adapt the PearsonT program into a new version called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique, which basically performs a second bootstrap loop or resamples from the bootstrap resamples. It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap is used to preserve the serial correlation of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error based bootstrap Student's t confidence intervals. The performances of the calibrated confidence intervals are examined with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared with the performances of confidence intervals without calibration, that is, PearsonT. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small (i.e., within a few percentage points) already for data sizes as small as 20. One form of climate time series is output from numerical models which simulate the climate system. The method is applied to model data from the high resolution ocean model, INALT01 where the relationship between the Agulhas Leakage and the North Brazil Current is evaluated. Preliminary results show significant correlation between the two variables when there is 10 year lag between them, which is more or less the time that takes the Agulhas Leakage water to reach the North Brazil Current. Mudelsee, M., 2003. Estimating Pearson's correlation coefficient with bootstrap confidence interval from serially dependent time series. Mathematical Geology 35, 651-665.

Contraceptive confidence and timing of first birth in Moldova: an event history analysis of retrospective data.

PubMed

Lyons-Amos, Mark; Padmadas, Sabu S; Durrant, Gabriele B

2014-08-11

To test the contraceptive confidence hypothesis in a modern context. The hypothesis is that women using effective or modern contraceptive methods have increased contraceptive confidence and hence a shorter interval between marriage and first birth than users of ineffective or traditional methods. We extend the hypothesis to incorporate the role of abortion, arguing that it acts as a substitute for contraception in the study context. Moldova, a country in South-East Europe. Moldova exhibits high use of traditional contraceptive methods and abortion compared with other European countries. Data are from a secondary analysis of the 2005 Moldovan Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative sample survey. 5377 unmarried women were selected. The outcome measure was the interval between marriage and first birth. This was modelled using a piecewise-constant hazard regression, with abortion and contraceptive method types as primary variables along with relevant sociodemographic controls. Women with high contraceptive confidence (modern method users) have a higher cumulative hazard of first birth 36 months following marriage (0.88 (0.87 to 0.89)) compared with women with low contraceptive confidence (traditional method users, cumulative hazard: 0.85 (0.84 to 0.85)). This is consistent with the contraceptive confidence hypothesis. There is a higher cumulative hazard of first birth among women with low (0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)) and moderate abortion propensities (0.76 (0.75 to 0.77)) than women with no abortion propensity (0.73 (0.72 to 0.74)) 24 months after marriage. Effective contraceptive use tends to increase contraceptive confidence and is associated with a shorter interval between marriage and first birth. Increased use of abortion also tends to increase contraceptive confidence and shorten birth duration, although this effect is non-linear-women with a very high use of abortion tend to have lengthy intervals between marriage and first birth. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamkins, J.

2015-05-01

We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick Charles

1985-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

Retained asymptomatic third molars and risk for second molar pathology.

PubMed

Nunn, M E; Fish, M D; Garcia, R I; Kaye, E K; Figueroa, R; Gohel, A; Ito, M; Lee, H J; Williams, D E; Miyamoto, T

2013-12-01

Prophylactic extraction of unerupted asymptomatic third molars is the most common oral surgery procedure in the United States. However, limited evidence exists to justify its costs and associated morbidity. We analyzed data collected over 25 years from 416 adult men enrolled in the Veterans Affairs Dental Longitudinal Study to evaluate the association of retained asymptomatic third molars with risk of adjacent second molar pathology (caries and/or periodontitis), based on third molar status (i.e., absent, erupted, or unerupted). Unerupted molars were further categorized as either "soft tissue" or "bony" impacted. We found that the lowest prevalence and incidence of second molar pathology occurred when the adjacent third molar was absent. The presence of a third molar that was soft tissue impacted increased the risk of incident second molar pathology 4.88-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.62, 9.08). Having an erupted or "bony" impacted third molar increased the risk of incident second molar pathology by 1.74 (95% confidence interval: 1.34, 2.25) and 2.16 (95% confidence interval: 1.56, 2.99), respectively. The retention of third molars is associated with increased risk of second molar pathology in middle-aged and older adult men.

Retained Asymptomatic Third Molars and Risk for Second Molar Pathology

PubMed Central

Nunn, M.E.; Fish, M.D.; Garcia, R.I.; Kaye, E.K.; Figueroa, R.; Gohel, A.; Ito, M.; Lee, H.J.; Williams, D.E.; Miyamoto, T.

2013-01-01

Prophylactic extraction of unerupted asymptomatic third molars is the most common oral surgery procedure in the United States. However, limited evidence exists to justify its costs and associated morbidity. We analyzed data collected over 25 years from 416 adult men enrolled in the Veterans Affairs Dental Longitudinal Study to evaluate the association of retained asymptomatic third molars with risk of adjacent second molar pathology (caries and/or periodontitis), based on third molar status (i.e., absent, erupted, or unerupted). Unerupted molars were further categorized as either “soft tissue” or “bony” impacted. We found that the lowest prevalence and incidence of second molar pathology occurred when the adjacent third molar was absent. The presence of a third molar that was soft tissue impacted increased the risk of incident second molar pathology 4.88-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.62, 9.08). Having an erupted or “bony” impacted third molar increased the risk of incident second molar pathology by 1.74 (95% confidence interval: 1.34, 2.25) and 2.16 (95% confidence interval: 1.56, 2.99), respectively. The retention of third molars is associated with increased risk of second molar pathology in middle-aged and older adult men. PMID:24132082

Detecting long-duration cloud contamination in hyper-temporal NDVI imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Amjad; de Bie, C. A. J. M.; Skidmore, A. K.

2013-10-01

Cloud contamination impacts on the quality of hyper-temporal NDVI imagery and its subsequent interpretation. Short-duration cloud impacts are easily removed by using quality flags and an upper envelope filter, but long-duration cloud contamination of NDVI imagery remains. In this paper, an approach that goes beyond the use of quality flags and upper envelope filtering is tested to detect when and where long-duration clouds are responsible for unreliable NDVI readings, so that a user can flag those data as missing. The study is based on MODIS Terra and the combined Terra-Aqua 16-day NDVI product for the south of Ghana, where persistent cloud cover occurs throughout the year. The combined product could be assumed to have less cloud contamination, since it is based on two images per day. Short-duration cloud effects were removed from the two products through using the adaptive Savitzky-Golay filter. Then for each 'cleaned' product an unsupervised classified map was prepared using the ISODATA algorithm, and, by class, plots were prepared to depict changes over time of the means and the standard deviations in NDVI values. By comparing plots of similar classes, long-duration cloud contamination appeared to display a decline in mean NDVI below the lower limit 95% confidence interval with a coinciding increase in standard deviation above the upper limit 95% confidence interval. Regression analysis was carried out per NDVI class in two randomly selected groups in order to statistically test standard deviation values related to long-duration cloud contamination. A decline in seasonal NDVI values (growing season) were below the lower limit of 95% confidence interval as well as a concurrent increase in standard deviation values above the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval were noted in 34 NDVI classes. The regression analysis results showed that differences in NDVI class values between the Terra and the Terra-Aqua imagery were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with the corresponding standard deviation values of the Terra imagery in case of all NDVI classes of two selected NDVI groups. The method successfully detects long-duration cloud contamination that results in unreliable NDVI values. The approach offers scientists interested in time series analysis a method of masking by area (class) the periods when pre-cleaned NDVI values remain affected by clouds. The approach requires no additional data for execution purposes but involves unsupervised classification of the imagery to carry out the evaluation of class-specific mean NDVI and standard deviation values over time.

Cardiac Outcomes After Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: Effects of Pioglitazone in Patients With Insulin Resistance Without Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Young, Lawrence H; Viscoli, Catherine M; Curtis, Jeptha P; Inzucchi, Silvio E; Schwartz, Gregory G; Lovejoy, Anne M; Furie, Karen L; Gorman, Mark J; Conwit, Robin; Abbott, J Dawn; Jacoby, Daniel L; Kolansky, Daniel M; Pfau, Steven E; Ling, Frederick S; Kernan, Walter N

2017-05-16

Insulin resistance is highly prevalent among patients with atherosclerosis and is associated with an increased risk for myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. The IRIS trial (Insulin Resistance Intervention after Stroke) demonstrated that pioglitazone decreased the composite risk for fatal or nonfatal stroke and MI in patients with insulin resistance without diabetes mellitus, after a recent ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. The type and severity of cardiac events in this population and the impact of pioglitazone on these events have not been described. We performed a secondary analysis of the effects of pioglitazone, in comparison with placebo, on acute coronary syndromes (MI and unstable angina) among IRIS participants. All potential acute coronary syndrome episodes were adjudicated in a blinded fashion by an independent clinical events committee. The study cohort was composed of 3876 IRIS participants, mean age 63 years, 65% male, 89% white race, and 12% with a history of coronary artery disease. Over a median follow-up of 4.8 years, there were 225 acute coronary syndrome events, including 141 MIs and 84 episodes of unstable angina. The MIs included 28 (19%) with ST-segment elevation. The majority of MIs were type 1 (94, 65%), followed by type 2 (45, 32%). Serum troponin was 10× to 100× upper limit of normal in 49 (35%) and >100× upper limit of normal in 39 (28%). Pioglitazone reduced the risk of acute coronary syndrome (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.94; P =0.02). Pioglitazone also reduced the risk of type 1 MI (hazard ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.40-0.96; log-rank P =0.03), but not type 2 MI (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.58-1.91; P =0.87). Similarly, pioglitazone reduced the risk of large MIs with serum troponin >100× upper limit of normal (hazard ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.22-0.87; P =0.02), but not smaller MIs. Among patients with insulin resistance without diabetes mellitus, pioglitazone reduced the risk for acute coronary syndromes after a recent cerebrovascular event. Pioglitazone appeared to have its most prominent effect in preventing spontaneous type 1 MIs. URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00091949. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

A Prospective, Randomized Trial of Routine Duplex Ultrasound Surveillance on Arteriovenous Fistula Maturation.

PubMed

Han, Ahram; Min, Seung-Kee; Kim, Mi-Sook; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Jungsun; Ha, Jongwon; Lee, Joongyub; Min, Sang-Il

2016-10-07

Use of arteriovenous fistulas, the most preferred type of access for hemodialysis, is limited by their high maturation failure rate. The aim of this study was to assess whether aggressive surveillance with routine duplex ultrasound and intervention can decrease the maturation failure rate of arteriovenous fistulas. We conducted a single-center, parallel-group, randomized, controlled trial of patients undergoing autogenous arteriovenous fistula. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either the routine duplex or selective duplex group. In the routine duplex group, duplex ultrasound and physical examination were performed 2, 4, and 8 weeks postoperatively. In the selective duplex group, duplex examination was performed only when physical examination detected an abnormality. The primary end point was the maturation failure rate 8 weeks after fistula creation. Maturation failure was defined as the inability to achieve clinical maturation ( i.e. , a successful first use) and failure to achieve sonographic maturation (fistula flow >500 ml/min and diameter >6 mm) within 8 weeks. Between June 14, 2012, and June 25, 2014, 150 patients were enrolled (75 patients in each group), and 118 of those were included in the final analysis. The maturation failure rate was lower in the routine duplex group (8 of 59; 13.6%) than in the selective duplex group (15 of 59; 25.4%), but the difference was not statistically significant (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 1.19; P =0.10). Factors associated with maturation failure were women (odds ratio, 3.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 14.06; P =0.04), coronary artery disease (odds ratio, 6.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 24.95; P <0.01), diabetes (odds ratio, 6.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.76 to 21.19; P <0.01), and the preoperative cephalic vein diameter (odds ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 0.71; P <0.01). Postoperative routine duplex surveillance failed to prove superiority compared with selective duplex after physical examination for reducing arteriovenous fistula maturation failure. However, the wide 95% confidence interval for the effect of intervention precludes a firm conclusion that routine duplex surveillance was not beneficial. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Effects of weight loss interventions for adults who are obese on mortality, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Chenhan; Avenell, Alison; Bolland, Mark; Hudson, Jemma; Stewart, Fiona; Robertson, Clare; Sharma, Pawana; Fraser, Cynthia; MacLennan, Graeme

2017-11-14

Objective  To assess whether weight loss interventions for adults with obesity affect all cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and body weight. Design  Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) using random effects, estimating risk ratios, and mean differences. Heterogeneity investigated using Cochran's Q and I 2 statistics. Quality of evidence assessed by GRADE criteria. Data sources  Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and full texts in our trials' registry for data not evident in databases. Authors were contacted for unpublished data. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies  RCTs of dietary interventions targeting weight loss, with or without exercise advice or programmes, for adults with obesity and follow-up ≥1 year. Results  54 RCTs with 30 206 participants were identified. All but one trial evaluated low fat, weight reducing diets. For the primary outcome, high quality evidence showed that weight loss interventions decrease all cause mortality (34 trials, 685 events; risk ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.95), with six fewer deaths per 1000 participants (95% confidence interval two to 10). For other primary outcomes moderate quality evidence showed an effect on cardiovascular mortality (eight trials, 134 events; risk ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 1.31), and very low quality evidence showed an effect on cancer mortality (eight trials, 34 events; risk ratio 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.30 to 1.11). Twenty four trials (15 176 participants) reported high quality evidence on participants developing new cardiovascular events (1043 events; risk ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.04). Nineteen trials (6330 participants) provided very low quality evidence on participants developing new cancers (103 events; risk ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.36). Conclusions  Weight reducing diets, usually low in fat and saturated fat, with or without exercise advice or programmes, may reduce premature all cause mortality in adults with obesity. Systematic review registration  PROSPERO CRD42016033217. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

2011-12-01

Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0.204)], respectively. Income elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.098 [95% confidence interval (0.018, 0.178)], 0.136 [95% confidence interval (0.028, 0.245)] and 0.521 [95% confidence interval (0.438, 0.605)], respectively. The aforementioned results are in 2008, which hold similar pattern as results in 2003 as well as results from pooled data of two periods. First, no significant difference is detected between sensitivity of outpatient services and sensitivity of inpatient services, responding to own-price change. Second, inpatient services are substitutes to outpatient services. Third, the growth of inpatient services is faster than the growth in outpatient services in response to income growth. The major findings from this paper suggest refining insurance policy in rural China. First, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, changing outpatient price is at least as effective as changing inpatient price to adjust demand of health care. Second, the current national guideline of healthcare reform to increase the reimbursement rate for inpatient services will crowd out outpatient services; however, we have no evidence about the change in demand for inpatient service if insurance covers outpatient services. Third, a referral system and gate-keeping system should be established to guide rural patients to utilize outpatient service. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stark, Philip B.

1992-01-01

The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

2013-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

2014-01-01

Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of probands with focal epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 1.0 (95% confidence interval 0.00–2.19) for generalized epilepsy and 2.6 (95% confidence interval 1.19–4.26) for focal epilepsy. Epilepsy incidence was greater in offspring of female probands than in offspring of male probands, and this maternal effect was restricted to offspring of probands with focal epilepsy. The results suggest that risks for epilepsies of unknown and prenatal/developmental cause may be influenced by shared genetic mechanisms. They also suggest that some of the genetic influences on generalized and focal epilepsies are distinct. However, the similar increase in risk for focal epilepsy among relatives of probands with either generalized (2.5-fold) or focal epilepsy (2.6-fold) may reflect some coexisting shared genetic influences. PMID:24468822

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jason E.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2009-01-01

Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

Race, Ethnicity, Language, Social Class, and Health Communication Inequalities: A Nationally-Representative Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Viswanath, Kasisomayajula; Ackerson, Leland K.

2011-01-01

Background While mass media communications can be an important source of health information, there are substantial social disparities in health knowledge that may be related to media use. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the use of cancer-related health communications is patterned by race, ethnicity, language, and social class. Methodology/Principal Findings In a nationally-representative cross-sectional telephone survey, 5,187 U.S. adults provided information about demographic characteristics, cancer information seeking, and attention to and trust in health information from television, radio, newspaper, magazines, and the Internet. Cancer information seeking was lowest among Spanish-speaking Hispanics (odds ratio: 0.42; 95% confidence interval: 0.28–0.63) compared to non-Hispanic whites. Spanish-speaking Hispanics were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 3.10; 95% confidence interval: 2.07–4.66) and trust (odds ratio: 2.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.53–4.47) health messages from the radio. Non-Hispanic blacks were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 2.39; 95% confidence interval: 1.88–3.04) and trust (odds ratio: 2.16; 95% confidence interval: 1.61–2.90) health messages on television. Those who were college graduates tended to pay more attention to health information from newspapers (odds ratio: 1.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.42–2.75), magazines (odds ratio: 1.86; 95% confidence interval: 1.32–2.60), and the Internet (odds ratio: 4.74; 95% confidence interval: 2.70–8.31) and had less trust in cancer-related health information from television (odds ratio: 0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.32–0.62) and radio (odds ratio: 0.54; 95% confidence interval: 0.34–0.86) compared to those who were not high school graduates. Conclusions/Significance Health media use is patterned by race, ethnicity, language and social class. Providing greater access to and enhancing the quality of health media by taking into account factors associated with social determinants may contribute to addressing social disparities in health. PMID:21267450

Analysis of adverse events of renal impairment related to platinum-based compounds using the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database.

PubMed

Naganuma, Misa; Motooka, Yumi; Sasaoka, Sayaka; Hatahira, Haruna; Hasegawa, Shiori; Fukuda, Akiho; Nakao, Satoshi; Shimada, Kazuyo; Hirade, Koseki; Mori, Takayuki; Yoshimura, Tomoaki; Kato, Takeshi; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro

2018-01-01

Platinum compounds cause several adverse events, such as nephrotoxicity, gastrointestinal toxicity, myelosuppression, ototoxicity, and neurotoxicity. We evaluated the incidence of renal impairment as adverse events are related to the administration of platinum compounds using the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database. We analyzed adverse events associated with the use of platinum compounds reported from April 2004 to November 2016. The reporting odds ratio at 95% confidence interval was used to detect the signal for each renal impairment incidence. We evaluated the time-to-onset profile of renal impairment and assessed the hazard type using Weibull shape parameter and used the applied association rule mining technique to discover undetected relationships such as possible risk factor. In total, 430,587 reports in the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database were analyzed. The reporting odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for renal impairment resulting from the use of cisplatin, oxaliplatin, carboplatin, and nedaplatin were 2.7 (2.5-3.0), 0.6 (0.5-0.7), 0.8 (0.7-1.0), and 1.3 (0.8-2.1), respectively. The lower limit of the reporting odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for cisplatin was >1. The median (lower-upper quartile) onset time of renal impairment following the use of platinum-based compounds was 6.0-8.0 days. The Weibull shape parameter β and 95% confidence interval upper limit of oxaliplatin were <1. In the association rule mining, the score of lift for patients who were treated with cisplatin and co-administered furosemide, loxoprofen, or pemetrexed was high. Similarly, the scores for patients with hypertension or diabetes mellitus were high. Our findings suggest a potential risk of renal impairment during cisplatin use in real-world setting. The present findings demonstrate that the incidence of renal impairment following cisplatin use should be closely monitored when patients are hypertensive or diabetic, or when they are co-administered furosemide, loxoprofen, or pemetrexed. In addition, healthcare professionals should closely assess a patient's background prior to treatment.

Preconceptional and prenatal supplementary folic acid and multivitamin intake and autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Virk, Jasveer; Liew, Zeyan; Olsen, Jørn; Nohr, Ellen A; Catov, Janet M; Ritz, Beate

2016-08-01

To evaluate whether early folic acid supplementation during pregnancy prevents diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders in offspring. Information on autism spectrum disorder diagnosis was obtained from the National Hospital Register and the Central Psychiatric Register. We estimated risk ratios for autism spectrum disorders for children whose mothers took folate or multivitamin supplements from 4 weeks prior from the last menstrual period through to 8 weeks after the last menstrual period (-4 to 8 weeks) by three 4-week periods. We did not find an association between early folate or multivitamin intake for autism spectrum disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.36; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.22), autistic disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.84; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.87-1.69), Asperger's syndrome (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.53; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.46), or pervasive developmental disorder-not otherwise specified (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.54; multivitamin: adjusted risk ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.65-1.17) compared with women reporting no supplement use in the same period. We did not find any evidence to corroborate previous reports of a reduced risk for autism spectrum disorders in offspring of women using folic acid supplements in early pregnancy. © The Author(s) 2015.

Applying Bootstrap Resampling to Compute Confidence Intervals for Various Statistics with R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogan, C. Deha

2017-01-01

Background: Most of the studies in academic journals use p values to represent statistical significance. However, this is not a good indicator of practical significance. Although confidence intervals provide information about the precision of point estimation, they are, unfortunately, rarely used. The infrequent use of confidence intervals might…

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

2016-01-01

Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ordinary Least Squares Factor Loadings and Correlations in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Luo, Shanhong

2010-01-01

This article is concerned with using the bootstrap to assign confidence intervals for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in ordinary least squares exploratory factor analysis. Coverage performances of "SE"-based intervals, percentile intervals, bias-corrected percentile intervals, bias-corrected accelerated percentile…

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

2008-08-01

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

Evaluation of a single-item screening question to detect limited health literacy in peritoneal dialysis patients.

PubMed

Jain, Deepika; Sheth, Heena; Bender, Filitsa H; Weisbord, Steven D; Green, Jamie A

2014-01-01

Studies have shown that a single-item question might be useful in identifying patients with limited health literacy. However, the utility of the approach has not been studied in patients receiving maintenance peritoneal dialysis (PD). We assessed health literacy in a cohort of 31 PD patients by administering the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine (REALM) and a single-item health literacy (SHL) screening question "How confident are you filling out medical forms by yourself?" (Extremely, Quite a bit, Somewhat, A little bit, or Not at all). To determine the accuracy of the single-item question for detecting limited health literacy, we performed sensitivity and specificity analyses of the SHL and plotted the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve using the REALM as a reference standard. Using a cut-off of "Somewhat" or less confident, the sensitivity of the SHL for detecting limited health literacy was 80%, and the specificity was 88%. The positive likelihood ratio was 6.9. The SHL had an AUROC of 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.52 to 1.00). Our results show that the SHL could be effective in detecting limited health literacy in PD patients.

Hematology and biochemistry reference intervals for Ontario commercial nursing pigs close to the time of weaning

PubMed Central

Perri, Amanda M.; O’Sullivan, Terri L.; Harding, John C.S.; Wood, R. Darren; Friendship, Robert M.

2017-01-01

The evaluation of pig hematology and biochemistry parameters is rarely done largely due to the costs associated with laboratory testing and labor, and the limited availability of reference intervals needed for interpretation. Within-herd and between-herd biological variation of these values also make it difficult to establish reference intervals. Regardless, baseline reference intervals are important to aid veterinarians in the interpretation of blood parameters for the diagnosis and treatment of diseased swine. The objective of this research was to provide reference intervals for hematology and biochemistry parameters of 3-week-old commercial nursing piglets in Ontario. A total of 1032 pigs lacking clinical signs of disease from 20 swine farms were sampled for hematology and iron panel evaluation, with biochemistry analysis performed on a subset of 189 randomly selected pigs. The 95% reference interval, mean, median, range, and 90% confidence intervals were calculated for each parameter. PMID:28373729

Opioid analgesia in mechanically ventilated children: results from the multicenter Measuring Opioid Tolerance Induced by Fentanyl study.

PubMed

Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Clark, Amy E; Willson, Douglas F; Berger, John; Meert, Kathleen L; Zimmerman, Jerry J; Harrison, Rick; Carcillo, Joseph A; Newth, Christopher J L; Bisping, Stephanie; Holubkov, Richard; Dean, J Michael; Nicholson, Carol E

2013-01-01

To examine the clinical factors associated with increased opioid dose among mechanically ventilated children in the pediatric intensive care unit. Prospective, observational study with 100% accrual of eligible patients. Seven pediatric intensive care units from tertiary-care children's hospitals in the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. Four hundred nineteen children treated with morphine or fentanyl infusions. None. Data on opioid use, concomitant therapy, demographic and explanatory variables were collected. Significant variability occurred in clinical practices, with up to 100-fold differences in baseline opioid doses, average daily or total doses, or peak infusion rates. Opioid exposure for 7 or 14 days required doubling of the daily opioid dose in 16% patients (95% confidence interval 12%-19%) and 20% patients (95% confidence interval 16%-24%), respectively. Among patients receiving opioids for longer than 3 days (n = 225), this occurred in 28% (95% confidence interval 22%-33%) and 35% (95% confidence interval 29%-41%) by 7 or 14 days, respectively. Doubling of the opioid dose was more likely to occur following opioid infusions for 7 days or longer (odds ratio 7.9, 95% confidence interval 4.3-14.3; p < 0.001) or co-therapy with midazolam (odds ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4-12.9; p < 0.001), and it was less likely to occur if morphine was used as the primary opioid (vs. fentanyl) (odds ratio 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.25-0.92; p = 0.03), for patients receiving higher initial doses (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98; p < 0.001), or if patients had prior pediatric intensive care unit admissions (odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.89; p = 0.03). Mechanically ventilated children require increasing opioid doses, often associated with prolonged opioid exposure or the need for additional sedation. Efforts to reduce prolonged opioid exposure and clinical practice variation may prevent the complications of opioid therapy.

Optimal Measurement Interval for Emergency Department Crowding Estimation Tools.

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Ojha, Rohit P; Robinson, Richard D; Jackson, Bradford E; Shaikh, Sajid A; Cowden, Chad D; Shyamanand, Rath; Leuck, JoAnna; Schrader, Chet D; Zenarosa, Nestor R

2017-11-01

Emergency department (ED) crowding is a barrier to timely care. Several crowding estimation tools have been developed to facilitate early identification of and intervention for crowding. Nevertheless, the ideal frequency is unclear for measuring ED crowding by using these tools. Short intervals may be resource intensive, whereas long ones may not be suitable for early identification. Therefore, we aim to assess whether outcomes vary by measurement interval for 4 crowding estimation tools. Our eligible population included all patients between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, who were admitted to the JPS Health Network ED, which serves an urban population. We generated 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-hour ED crowding scores for each patient, using 4 crowding estimation tools (National Emergency Department Overcrowding Scale [NEDOCS], Severely Overcrowded, Overcrowded, and Not Overcrowded Estimation Tool [SONET], Emergency Department Work Index [EDWIN], and ED Occupancy Rate). Our outcomes of interest included ED length of stay (minutes) and left without being seen or eloped within 4 hours. We used accelerated failure time models to estimate interval-specific time ratios and corresponding 95% confidence limits for length of stay, in which the 1-hour interval was the reference. In addition, we used binomial regression with a log link to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and corresponding confidence limit for left without being seen. Our study population comprised 117,442 patients. The time ratios for length of stay were similar across intervals for each crowding estimation tool (time ratio=1.37 to 1.30 for NEDOCS, 1.44 to 1.37 for SONET, 1.32 to 1.27 for EDWIN, and 1.28 to 1.23 for ED Occupancy Rate). The RRs of left without being seen differences were also similar across intervals for each tool (RR=2.92 to 2.56 for NEDOCS, 3.61 to 3.36 for SONET, 2.65 to 2.40 for EDWIN, and 2.44 to 2.14 for ED Occupancy Rate). Our findings suggest limited variation in length of stay or left without being seen between intervals (1 to 4 hours) regardless of which of the 4 crowding estimation tools were used. Consequently, 4 hours may be a reasonable interval for assessing crowding with these tools, which could substantially reduce the burden on ED personnel by requiring less frequent assessment of crowding. Copyright © 2017 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of growth hormone replacement in patients with hypopituitarism on pituitary tumor recurrence, secondary cancer, and stroke.

PubMed

Jasim, Sina; Alahdab, Fares; Ahmed, Ahmed T; Tamhane, Shrikant U; Sharma, Anu; Donegan, Diane; Nippoldt, Todd B; Murad, M Hassan

2017-05-01

Growth hormone replacement therapy has benefits for patients with hypopituitarism. The safety profile in regard to tumor recurrence or progression, development of secondary malignancies, or cerebrovascular stroke is still an area of debate. A comprehensive search of multiple databases-MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus was conducted through August 2015. Eligible studies that evaluated long-term adverse events in adult patients with hypopituitarism treated with growth hormone replacement therapy and reported development of pituitary tumor recurrence or progression, secondary malignancies, or cerebrovascular stroke were selected following a predefined protocol. Reviewers, independently and in duplicate, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool relative risks and 95 % confidence intervals. We included 15 studies (published 1995-2015) that reported on 46,148 patients. Compared to non-replacement, growth hormone replacement therapy in adults with hypopituitarism was not associated with statistically significant change in pituitary tumor progression or recurrence (relative risk, 0.77; 95 % confidence interval, 0.53-1.13) or development of secondary malignancy (relative risk, 0.99; 95 % confidence interval, 0.70-1.39). In two retrospective studies, there was higher risk of stroke in patients who did not receive replacement (relative risk, 2.07; 95 % confidence interval, 1.51-2.83). The quality of evidence is low due to study limitations and imprecision. This systematic review and meta-analysis supports the overall safety of growth hormone therapeutic use in adults with hypopituitarism with no clear evidence of increased risk of pituitary tumor recurrence, malignancy, or stroke.

Acupuncture for the sequelae of Bell's palsy: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Kwon, Hyo-Jung; Choi, Jun-Yong; Lee, Myeong Soo; Kim, Yong-Suk; Shin, Byung-Cheul; Kim, Jong-In

2015-06-03

Incomplete recovery from facial palsy results in social and physical disabilities, and the medical options for the sequelae of Bell's palsy are limited. Acupuncture is widely used for Bell's palsy patients in East Asia, but its efficacy is unclear. We performed a randomized controlled trial including participants with the sequelae of Bell's palsy with the following two parallel arms: an acupuncture group (n = 26) and a waiting list group (n = 13). The acupuncture group received acupuncture treatments for 8 weeks, whereas the waiting list group did not receive acupuncture treatments during the 8-week period after randomization. The primary outcome measure was change in the Facial Disability Index (FDI) social and well-being subscale at week 8. We also analyzed changes in the FDI physical function subscale, the House-Brackmann score, the Sunnybrook Facial Nerve Grading system, lip mobility and stiffness at 5 and 8 weeks after randomization. An intention-to-treat analysis was applied. The acupuncture group exhibited greater improvements in the FDI social score (mean difference, 23.54; 95% confidence interval, 12.99 to 34.08) and better results on the FDI physical function subscale (mean difference, 21.54; 95% confidence interval, 7.62 to 35.46), Sunnybrook Facial Nerve Grading score (mean difference, 14.77; 95% confidence interval, 5.05 to 24.49), and stiffness scale (mean difference, -1.58; 95% confidence interval,-2.26 to -0.89) compared with the waiting list group after 8 weeks. No severe adverse event occurred in either group. Compared with the waiting list group, acupuncture had better therapeutic effects on the social and physical aspects of sequelae of Bell's palsy. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN43104115.

[Association between chronic periodontitis and hyperlipidemia: a Meta-analysis based on observational studies].

PubMed

Lianhui, Yang; Meifei, Lian; Zhongyue, Hu; Yunzhi, Feng

2017-08-01

Objective The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship between periodontitis and hyperlipidemia risks through Meta-analysis. Methods Two researchers conducted an electronic search on PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, CBM, CNKI, Wanfang and VIP databases established until July 2016 for observational studies on the association between periodontitis and hyperlipidemia. The language used was limited to Chinese and English. After data extraction and quality evaluation of included trials, Meta-analysis was conducted using the RevMan 5.3 software. The GRADE 3.6 software was used to evaluate the quality level of the evidence. Results Six case-control studies and one cohort study were included. The results of Meta-analysis showed that serum triglyceride (TG) in patients with periodontitis was significantly higher than that of the periodontal health group (MD=50.50, 95% confidence interval=39.57-61.42, P<0.000 01), as well as serum total cholesterol (TC) (MD=17.54, 95% confidence interval=10.91-24.18, P<0.000 01). Furthermore, the risks of TG and TC in the serum of patients with chronic periodontitis were 4.73 times (OR=4.73, 95% confidence interval=2.74-8.17, P<0.000 01) and 3.62 times (OR=3.62, 95% confidence interval=2.18-6.03, P<0.000 01) of that of periodontal healthy patients. No significant difference was observed between the group with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and that with low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Conclusion Current evidence indicates that a correlation exists between chronic periodontitis and hyperlipidemia, and chronic periodontitis is an independent risk factor for hyperlipidemia, especially for TC and TG in serum.

Intermediate outcomes of rheumatic mitral stenosis post-balloon mitral valvotomy.

PubMed

Sharma, Jugal; Goel, Pravin K; Pandey, Chandra Mani; Awasthi, Ashish; Kapoor, Aditya; Tewari, Satyendra; Garg, Naveen; Kumar, Sudeep; Khanna, Roopali

2015-10-01

Balloon mitral valvotomy is a standard therapeutic modality for managing rheumatic mitral stenosis. Data on intermediate outcomes of this procedure are limited. Thus we investigated the intermediate outcome after balloon mitral valvotomy performed at a large tertiary center in India. Case records and follow-up data of 2330 patients who underwent valvotomy from June 1999 to December 2005 were retrieved from the hospital information system and analyzed. The median age of the patients was 32 ± 11 years, 1363 were female including 36 who were pregnant, and 379 were in atrial fibrillation. Follow-up ranged from 1 to 14 years (mean 4.5 years, median 4.0 years). The procedural success rate was 93%. Atrial fibrillation, higher functional class, and worse valve morphology were independent predictors of a poor procedural outcome. Patients with sinus rhythm had better event-free survival (10.43 years, 95% confidence interval: 10.1-10.7) compared to those with atrial fibrillation (8.17 years, 95% confidence interval: 7.5-8.8). Patients who achieved a valve area >1.75 cm(2) had a better event-free survival (11.7 years, 95% confidence interval: 11.4-12.0) than those with a valve area of 1.5-1.74 cm(2) (9.3 years, 95% confidence interval: 9.0-9.7). On multivariate analysis, higher functional class, worse valve morphology, and new significant mitral regurgitation were predictors of a poor outcome. Achieved mitral valve area >1.75 cm(2) was an independent predictor of a good outcome. Patients with sinus rhythm, less gross valve deformity, and a post-balloon mitral valvotomy area >1.75 cm(2) had better intermediate outcomes. © The Author(s) 2015.

Transvenous Lead Extraction in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease: Insights From a 20-Year Single-Center Experience.

PubMed

Gourraud, Jean-Baptiste; Chaix, Marie-A; Shohoudi, Azadeh; Pagé, Pierre; Dubuc, Marc; Thibault, Bernard; Poirier, Nancy C; Dore, Annie; Marcotte, François; Mongeon, François-Pierre; Asgar, Anita W; Ibrahim, Réda; Khairy, Paul; Mondésert, Blandine

2018-02-01

Safety and feasibility data on transvenous lead extraction (TLE) in the challenging population of adults with congenital heart disease (A-CHD) are limited. Herein, we report the results of TLE in A-CHD during a 20-year period. All consecutive TLE procedures in A-CHD were included in a monocentric prospective registry from 1996. A total of 121 leads were extracted in 49 A-CHD (median age, 38 years; 51% men) during 71 TLE procedures. Twenty-four (49%) patients had transposition of the great arteries. Main indications for extraction were infection in 34 (48%) and lead failure in 22 (31%). A laser sheath was required for 56 (46%) leads and a femoral approach for 10 (8%). Complete TLE was achieved for 111 leads (92%). In multivariable analysis, lead duration (odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.04; P <0.01) and number of previous cardiac surgeries (odds ratio, 2.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.52-4.67; P <0.01) were predictive of TLE failure. No perioperative death or pericardial effusion was observed. Subpulmonary atrioventricular valve regurgitation increased in 8 patients (5 with transposition of the great arteries) and was independently associated with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator lead (odds ratio, 9.69; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-71.64; P =0.03) and valvular vegetation (odds ratio, 7.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-40.51; P =0.02). After a median of 54 (19-134) months of follow-up after the first TLE, 3 deaths occurred independently from lead management. Despite complex anatomic issues, TLE can be achieved successfully in most A-CHD using advanced extraction techniques. Subpulmonary atrioventricular valve regurgitation is a prevalent complication, particularly in patients with transposition of the great arteries. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Effects of advanced life support on patients who suffered cardiac arrest outside of hospital and were defibrillated.

PubMed

Hagihara, Akihito; Onozuka, Daisuke; Nagata, Takashi; Hasegawa, Manabu

2018-01-01

The effects and relative benefits of advanced airway management and epinephrine on patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) who were defibrillated are not well understood. This was a prospective observational study. Using data of all out-of-hospital cardiac arrest cases occurring between 2005 and 2013 in Japan, hierarchical logistic regression and conditional logistic regression along with time-dependent propensity matching were performed. Outcome measures were survival and minimal neurological impairment [cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 or 2] at 1month after the event. We analyzed 37,873 cases that met the inclusion criteria. Among propensity-matched patients, advanced airway management and/or prehospital epinephrine use was related to decreased rates of 1-month survival (adjusted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 0.97) and CPC (1, 2) (adjusted odds ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.48 to 0.66). Advanced airway management was related to decreased rates of 1-month survival (adjusted odds ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.81to 0.98) and CPC (1, 2) (adjusted odds ratio 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.64) in patients who did not receive epinephrine, whereas epinephrine use was not related to the outcome measures. In defibrillated patients with OHCA, advanced airway management and/or epinephrine are related to reduced long-term survival, and advanced airway management is less beneficial than epinephrine. However, the proportion of patients with OHCA who responded to an initial shock was very low in the study subjects, and the external validity of our findings might be limited. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical Outcomes of Transplanted Modified Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Stroke: A Phase 1/2a Study.

PubMed

Steinberg, Gary K; Kondziolka, Douglas; Wechsler, Lawrence R; Lunsford, L Dade; Coburn, Maria L; Billigen, Julia B; Kim, Anthony S; Johnson, Jeremiah N; Bates, Damien; King, Bill; Case, Casey; McGrogan, Michael; Yankee, Ernest W; Schwartz, Neil E

2016-07-01

Preclinical data suggest that cell-based therapies have the potential to improve stroke outcomes. Eighteen patients with stable, chronic stroke were enrolled in a 2-year, open-label, single-arm study to evaluate the safety and clinical outcomes of surgical transplantation of modified bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (SB623). All patients in the safety population (N=18) experienced at least 1 treatment-emergent adverse event. Six patients experienced 6 serious treatment-emergent adverse events; 2 were probably or definitely related to surgical procedure; none were related to cell treatment. All serious treatment-emergent adverse events resolved without sequelae. There were no dose-limiting toxicities or deaths. Sixteen patients completed 12 months of follow-up at the time of this analysis. Significant improvement from baseline (mean) was reported for: (1) European Stroke Scale: mean increase 6.88 (95% confidence interval, 3.5-10.3; P<0.001), (2) National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale: mean decrease 2.00 (95% confidence interval, -2.7 to -1.3; P<0.001), (3) Fugl-Meyer total score: mean increase 19.20 (95% confidence interval, 11.4-27.0; P<0.001), and (4) Fugl-Meyer motor function total score: mean increase 11.40 (95% confidence interval, 4.6-18.2; P<0.001). No changes were observed in modified Rankin Scale. The area of magnetic resonance T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery signal change in the ipsilateral cortex 1 week after implantation significantly correlated with clinical improvement at 12 months (P<0.001 for European Stroke Scale). In this interim report, SB623 cells were safe and associated with improvement in clinical outcome end points at 12 months. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01287936. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Effect of Intensive Versus Standard Clinic-Based Hypertension Management on Ambulatory Blood Pressure: Results From the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) Ambulatory Blood Pressure Study.

PubMed

Drawz, Paul E; Pajewski, Nicholas M; Bates, Jeffrey T; Bello, Natalie A; Cushman, William C; Dwyer, Jamie P; Fine, Lawrence J; Goff, David C; Haley, William E; Krousel-Wood, Marie; McWilliams, Andrew; Rifkin, Dena E; Slinin, Yelena; Taylor, Addison; Townsend, Raymond; Wall, Barry; Wright, Jackson T; Rahman, Mahboob

2017-01-01

The effect of clinic-based intensive hypertension treatment on ambulatory blood pressure (BP) is unknown. The goal of the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) ambulatory BP ancillary study was to evaluate the effect of intensive versus standard clinic-based BP targets on ambulatory BP. Ambulatory BP was obtained within 3 weeks of the 27-month study visit in 897 SPRINT participants. Intensive treatment resulted in lower clinic systolic BP (mean difference between groups=16.0 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 14.1-17.8 mm Hg), nighttime systolic BP (mean difference=9.6 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 7.7-11.5 mm Hg), daytime systolic BP (mean difference=12.3 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 10.6-13.9 mm Hg), and 24-hour systolic BP (mean difference=11.2 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 9.7-12.8 mm Hg). The night/day systolic BP ratio was similar between the intensive (0.92±0.09) and standard-treatment groups (0.91±0.09). There was considerable lack of agreement within participants between clinic systolic BP and daytime ambulatory systolic BP with wide limits of agreement on Bland-Altman plots. In conclusion, targeting a systolic BP of <120 mm Hg, when compared with <140 mm Hg, resulted in lower nighttime, daytime, and 24-hour systolic BP, but did not change the night/day systolic BP ratio. Ambulatory BP monitoring may be required to assess the effect of targeted hypertension therapy on out of office BP. Further studies are needed to assess whether targeting hypertension therapy based on ambulatory BP improves clinical outcomes. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01835249. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Coffee Consumption and Coronary Artery Calcium Score: Cross-Sectional Results of ELSA-Brasil (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health).

PubMed

Miranda, Andreia M; Steluti, Josiane; Goulart, Alessandra C; Benseñor, Isabela M; Lotufo, Paulo A; Marchioni, Dirce M

2018-03-24

Available evidence for the relationship between coffee intake and subclinical atherosclerosis is limited and inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate the association between coffee consumption and coronary artery calcium (CAC) in ELSA-Brasil (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health). This cross-sectional study is based on baseline data from participants of the ELSA-Brasil cohort. Only participants living in São Paulo, Brazil, who underwent a CAC measurement (n=4426) were included. Coffee consumption was collected using a food frequency questionnaire. CAC was detected with computed tomography and expressed as Agatston units. CAC was further categorized as an Agatson score ≥100 (CAC ≥100). In multiple logistic regression analysis considering intake of coffee and smoking status interaction, significant inverse associations were observed between coffee consumption (>3 cups/d) and CAC≥100 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.85 [95% confidence interval, 0.58-1.24] for ≤1 cup/d; OR: 0.73 [95% confidence interval, 0.51-1.05] for 1-3 cups/d; OR: 0.33 [95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.65] for >3 cups/d). Moreover, there was a statistically significant interaction effect for coffee consumption and smoking status ( P =0.028 for interaction). After stratification by smoking status, the analysis revealed a lower OR of coronary calcification in never smokers drinking >3 cups/d (OR: 0.37 [95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.91]), whereas among current and former smokers, the intake of coffee was not significantly associated with coronary calcification. Habitual consumption of >3 cups/d of coffee decreased odds of subclinical atherosclerosis among never smokers. The consumption of coffee could exert a potential beneficial effect against coronary calcification, particularly in nonsmokers. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Outcomes of Peripheral Vascular Interventions in Select Patients With Lower Extremity Acute Limb Ischemia.

PubMed

Inagaki, Elica; Farber, Alik; Kalish, Jeffrey A; Eslami, Mohammad H; Siracuse, Jeffrey J; Eberhardt, Robert T; Rybin, Denis V; Doros, Gheorghe; Hamburg, Naomi M

2018-04-12

Contemporary data on patients presenting with acute limb ischemia (ALI), who are selected for treatment with endovascular peripheral vascular interventions (PVI), are limited. Our study examined outcomes following endovascular PVI in patients with ALI by comparing with patients treated for chronic critical limb ischemia using a regional quality improvement registry. Of the 11 035 patients in the Vascular Study Group of New England PVI database (2010-2014), we identified 365 patients treated for lower extremity ALI who were 5:1 frequency matched (by procedure year and arterial segments treated) to 1808 patients treated for critical limb ischemia. ALI patients treated with PVI had high burden of atherosclerotic risk factors and were more likely to have had prior ipsilateral revascularizations. ALI patients were less likely to be treated with self-expanding stents and more likely to undergo thrombolysis than patients with critical limb ischemia. In multivariable analysis, ALI was associated with higher technical failure (odds ratio 1.7, 95% confidence interval, 1.1%-2.5%), increased rate of distal embolization (odds ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval, 1.5%-4.9%), longer length of stay (means ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval, 1.4%-1.8%), and higher in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval, 1.3%-5.9%). ALI was not associated with risk of major amputation or mortality at 1 year. In a multicenter cohort of patients treated with PVI, we found that ALI patients selected for treatment with endovascular techniques experienced greater short-term adverse events but similar long-term outcomes as their critical limb ischemia counterparts. Further studies are needed to refine the selection of ALI patients who are best served by PVI. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Impact of partner bereavement on quality of cardiovascular disease management.

PubMed

Shah, Sunil M; Carey, Iain M; Harris, Tess; Dewilde, Stephen; Victor, Christina R; Cook, Derek G

2013-12-24

Bereavement is a period of increased risk of cardiovascular death. There is limited understanding of the potential contribution of quality of cardiovascular disease management to this increased risk. In a UK primary-care database, 12 722 older individuals with preexisting cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, stroke) and a partner bereavement were matched with a non-bereaved control group (n=33 911). We examined key routine annual process measures of care in the year before and after bereavement and cardiovascular medication prescribing (lipid-lowering, antiplatelet, renin-angiotensin system drugs). Odds ratios for change after bereavement compared with the change in non-bereaved matched controls are presented. In the bereaved, uptake of all annual measures was lower in the year before bereavement, with improvement in the year after, whereas in the controls, uptake was relatively stable. The odds ratio for change was 1.30 (95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.46) for cholesterol measurement and 1.40 (95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.61) for blood pressure measurement. For all medication, there was a transient fall in prescribing in the peri-bereavement period lasting until about 3 months after bereavement. The odds ratio for at least 80% prescription coverage in the 30 days after bereavement was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.88) for lipid-lowering medication and 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.91) for antiplatelet medication compared with the change in non-bereaved individuals. Lower uptake of key cardiovascular care measures in the year before bereavement and reduced medication coverage after bereavement may contribute to increased cardiovascular risk. Clinicians need to ensure that quality of cardiovascular care is maintained in the pre- and post-bereavement periods.

40 CFR 91.506 - Engine sample selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... paragraph (b)(2) of this section. It defines one-tail, 95 percent confidence intervals. σ=actual test sample... individual engine x=mean of emission test results of the actual sample FEL=Family Emission Limit n=The actual... carry-over engine families: After one engine is tested, the manufacturer will combine the test with the...

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

2012-01-01

The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

2007-01-01

Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnette, J. Jackson

2005-01-01

An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

1991-01-01

A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

Effects of aerodynamic heating and TPS thermal performance uncertainties on the Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodrich, W. D.; Derry, S. M.; Maraia, R. J.

1980-01-01

A procedure for estimating uncertainties in the aerodynamic-heating and thermal protection system (TPS) thermal-performance methodologies developed for the Shuttle Orbiter is presented. This procedure is used in predicting uncertainty bands around expected or nominal TPS thermal responses for the Orbiter during entry. Individual flowfield and TPS parameters that make major contributions to these uncertainty bands are identified and, by statistical considerations, combined in a manner suitable for making engineering estimates of the TPS thermal confidence intervals and temperature margins relative to design limits. Thus, for a fixed TPS design, entry trajectories for future Orbiter missions can be shaped subject to both the thermal-margin and confidence-interval requirements. This procedure is illustrated by assessing the thermal margins offered by selected areas of the existing Orbiter TPS design for an entry trajectory typifying early flight test missions.

Daily home gardening improved survival for older people with mobility limitations: an 11-year follow-up study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lêng, Chhian Hūi; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-01-01

To test the hypothesis that gardening is beneficial for survival after taking time-dependent comorbidities, mobility, and depression into account in a longitudinal middle-aged (50-64 years) and older (≥65 years) cohort in Taiwan. The cohort contained 5,058 nationally sampled adults ≥50 years old from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging (1996-2007). Gardening was defined as growing flowers, gardening, or cultivating potted plants for pleasure with five different frequencies. We calculated hazard ratios for the mortality risks of gardening and adjusted the analysis for socioeconomic status, health behaviors and conditions, depression, mobility limitations, and comorbidities. Survival models also examined time-dependent effects and risks in each stratum contingent upon baseline mobility and depression. Sensitivity analyses used imputation methods for missing values. Daily home gardening was associated with a high survival rate (hazard ratio: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.94). The benefits were robust for those with mobility limitations, but without depression at baseline (hazard ratio: 0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.48-0.87) when adjusted for time-dependent comorbidities, mobility limitations, and depression. Chronic or relapsed depression weakened the protection of gardening. For those without mobility limitations and not depressed at baseline, gardening had no effect. Sensitivity analyses using different imputation methods yielded similar results and corroborated the hypothesis. Daily gardening for pleasure was associated with reduced mortality for Taiwanese >50 years old with mobility limitations but without depression.

Improvements in absolute seismometer sensitivity calibration using local earth gravity measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, Robert E.; Ringler, Adam; Wilson, David

2018-01-01

The ability to determine both absolute and relative seismic amplitudes is fundamentally limited by the accuracy and precision with which scientists are able to calibrate seismometer sensitivities and characterize their response. Currently, across the Global Seismic Network (GSN), errors in midband sensitivity exceed 3% at the 95% confidence interval and are the least‐constrained response parameter in seismic recording systems. We explore a new methodology utilizing precise absolute Earth gravity measurements to determine the midband sensitivity of seismic instruments. We first determine the absolute sensitivity of Kinemetrics EpiSensor accelerometers to 0.06% at the 99% confidence interval by inverting them in a known gravity field at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL). After the accelerometer is calibrated, we install it in its normal configuration next to broadband seismometers and subject the sensors to identical ground motions to perform relative calibrations of the broadband sensors. Using this technique, we are able to determine the absolute midband sensitivity of the vertical components of Nanometrics Trillium Compact seismometers to within 0.11% and Streckeisen STS‐2 seismometers to within 0.14% at the 99% confidence interval. The technique enables absolute calibrations from first principles that are traceable to National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) measurements while providing nearly an order of magnitude more precision than step‐table calibrations.

Exposure to diesel and gasoline engine emissions and the risk of lung cancer.

PubMed

Parent, Marie-Elise; Rousseau, Marie-Claude; Boffetta, Paolo; Cohen, Aaron; Siemiatycki, Jack

2007-01-01

Pollution from motor vehicles constitutes a major environmental health problem. The present paper describes associations between diesel and gasoline engine emissions and lung cancer, as evidenced in a 1979-1985 population-based case-control study in Montreal, Canada. Cases were 857 male lung cancer patients. Controls were 533 population controls and 1,349 patients with other cancer types. Subjects were interviewed to obtain a detailed lifetime job history and relevant data on potential confounders. Industrial hygienists translated each job description into indices of exposure to several agents, including engine emissions. There was no evidence of excess risks of lung cancer with exposure to gasoline exhaust. For diesel engine emissions, results differed by control group. When cancer controls were considered, there was no excess risk. When population controls were studied, the odds ratios, after adjustments for potential confounders, were 1.2 (95% confidence interval: 0.8, 1.8) for any exposure and 1.6 (95% confidence interval: 0.9, 2.8) for substantial exposure. Confidence intervals between risk estimates derived from the two control groups overlapped considerably. These results provide some limited support for the hypothesis of an excess lung cancer risk due to diesel exhaust but no support for an increase in risk due to gasoline exhaust.

Incidence, Determinants, and Outcomes of Coronary Perforation During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in the United Kingdom Between 2006 and 2013: An Analysis of 527 121 Cases From the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society Database.

PubMed

Kinnaird, Tim; Kwok, Chun Shing; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Ossei-Gerning, Nicholas; Ludman, Peter; deBelder, Mark; Anderson, Richard; Mamas, Mamas A

2016-08-01

As coronary perforation (CP) is a rare but serious complication of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) the current evidence base is limited to small series. Using a national PCI database, the incidence, predictors, and outcomes of CP as a complication of PCI were defined. Data were prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed from the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society data set on all PCI procedures performed in England and Wales between 2006 and 2013. Multivariate logistic regressions and propensity scores were used to identify predictors of CP and its association with outcomes. In total, 1762 CPs were recorded from 527 121 PCI procedures (incidence of 0.33%). Patients with CP were more often women or older, with a greater burden of comorbidity and underwent more complex PCI procedures. Factors predictive of CP included age per year (odds ratio [OR], 1.03; 95% confidence intervals, 1.02-1.03; P<0.001), previous coronary artery bypass graft (OR, 1.44; 95% confidence intervals, 1.17-1.77; P<0.001), left main (OR, 1.54; 95% confidence intervals, 1.21-1.96; P<0.001), use of rotational atherectomy (OR, 2.37; 95% confidence intervals, 1.80-3.11; P<0.001), and chronic total occlusions intervention (OR, 3.96; 95% confidence intervals, 3.28-4.78; P<0.001). Adjusted odds of adverse outcomes were higher in patients with CP for all major adverse coronary events, including stroke, bleeding, and mortality. Emergency surgery was required in 3% of cases. Predictors of mortality in patients with CP included age, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, renal disease, ventilatory support, use of circulatory support, glycoprotein inhibitor use, and stent type. Using a national PCI database for the first time, the incidence, predictors, and outcomes of CP were defined. Although CP as a complication of PCI occurred rarely, it was strongly associated with poor outcomes. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Impact of paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation on relapse prevention in patients with schizophrenia: A post-hoc analysis of a one-year, open-label study stratified by medication adherence.

PubMed

Si, Tianmei; Li, Nan; Lu, Huafei; Cai, Shangli; Zhuo, Jianmin; Correll, Christoph U; Zhang, Lili; Feng, Yu

2018-06-01

Limited data are available to help identify patients with schizophrenia who are most likely to benefit from long-acting injectable antipsychotics. To investigate the efficacy of long-acting injectable antipsychotic paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation for preventing relapses, factors influencing time to first relapse, and the effect of different antipsychotic adherence levels on time to first relapse in Chinese patients with schizophrenia. This was a post-hoc analysis from an open-label, single-arm study of stable patients (Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale total score <70; n=367) receiving paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation at the end of an acute 13-week treatment phase, who entered a naturalistic one-year follow-up period, either continuing with flexibly dosed paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation (75-150 mg eq.) or switching to another antipsychotic(s). There were 362/367 patients (age=31.4±10.75 years) included in the analysis of time to first relapse (primary outcome) and 327/362 patients (39/327, poor antipsychotic adherence (<80%)) willing to receive antipsychotics were included in the exposure/adherence analysis. Overall, 84.6% (95% confidence interval=79.2-88.7) patients remained relapse-free. Poor adherence during follow-up (hazard ratio=2.97, 95% confidence interval=1.48-5.98, p=0.002) and frequent hospitalizations in the previous year (hazard ratio=1.29, 95% confidence interval=1.02-1.62, p=0.03) were associated with a significant risk of shorter time to first relapse in the univariate analysis. In patients with poor adherence, 'no use' (hazard ratio=13.13, 95% confidence interval=1.33-129.96, p=0.03) and 'interrupted use' (hazard ratio=11.04, 95% confidence interval=1.03-118.60, p=0.047) of paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation (vs continued use) showed a significantly higher risk of relapse; this was not observed in patients with good (≥80%) antipsychotic adherence. No new safety concerns were identified. Continued use of paliperidone palmitate one-month formulation/long-acting injectable antipsychotic was effective in preventing schizophrenia relapses, especially in patients with suboptimal antipsychotic adherence.

Depressive symptoms in nonresident african american fathers and involvement with their sons.

PubMed

Davis, R Neal; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Clark, Sarah J; Davis, Matthew M

2009-12-01

Our objective was to determine whether paternal depressive symptoms were associated with less father involvement among African American fathers not living with their children (ie, nonresident fathers). We analyzed survey data for 345 fathers enrolled in a program for nonresident African American fathers and their preteen sons. Father involvement included measures of contact, closeness, monitoring, communication, and conflict. We used bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analysis to examine associations between father involvement and depressive symptoms. Thirty-six percent of fathers reported moderate depressive symptoms, and 11% reported severe depressive symptoms. In bivariate analyses, depressive symptoms were associated with less contact, less closeness, low monitoring, and increased conflict. In multivariate analyses controlling for basic demographic features, fathers with moderate depressive symptoms were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-2.8]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.5]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.2]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-3.6]). Fathers with severe depressive symptoms also were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 3.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-7.2]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.7]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-7.1]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-5.9]). Paternal depressive symptoms may be an important, but modifiable, barrier for nonresident African American fathers willing to be more involved with their children.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Steiner, Markus Fc; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. A retrospective, cohort study. Scotland. 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73-86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56-84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136-169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56-82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120-175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39-74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18-53) was better than the reference population. Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Risk factors of childhood asthma in children attending Lyari General Hospital.

PubMed

Kamran, Amber; Hanif, Shahina; Murtaza, Ghulam

2015-06-01

To determine the factors associated with asthma in children. The case-control study was conducted in the paediatrics clinic of Lyari General Hospital, Karachi, from May to October 2010. Children 1-15 years of age attending the clinic represented the cases, while the control group had children who were closely related (sibling or cousin) to the cases but did not have the symptoms of disease at the time. Data was collected through a proforma and analysed using SPSS 10. Of the total 346 subjects, 173(50%) each comprised the two groups. According to univariable analysis the risk factors were presence of at least one smoker (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-5.8), resident of kacha house (odds ratio: 16.2; 95% confidence interval: 3.8-69.5),living in room without windows (odds ratio: 9.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-40.9) and living in houses without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-2.4).Using multivariable modelling, family history of asthma (odds ratio: 5.9; 95% confidence interval: 3.1-11.6), presence of at least one smoker at home (odds ratio: 4.1; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-7.2), people living in a room without a window (odds ratio: 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-26.3) and people living in an area without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-4.31) were found to be independent risk factors of asthma in children adjusting for age, gender and history of weaning. Family history of asthma, children living with at least one smoker at home, room without windows and people living in an area without sunlight were major risk factors of childhood asthma.

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Risk factors for low birth weight according to the multiple logistic regression model. A retrospective cohort study in José María Morelos municipality, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Franco Monsreal, José; Tun Cobos, Miriam Del Ruby; Hernández Gómez, José Ricardo; Serralta Peraza, Lidia Esther Del Socorro

2018-01-17

Low birth weight has been an enigma for science over time. There have been many researches on its causes and its effects. Low birth weight is an indicator that predicts the probability of a child surviving. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. Multiple logistic regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for the analysis of data in both clinical and epidemiology settings, as well as in public health. To assess in a multivariate fashion the importance of 17 independent variables in low birth weight (dependent variable) of children born in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Analytical observational epidemiological cohort study with retrospective temporality. Births that met the inclusion criteria occurred in the "Hospital Integral Jose Maria Morelos" of the Ministry of Health corresponding to the Maya municipality of Jose Maria Morelos during the period from August 1, 2014 to July 31, 2015. The total number of newborns recorded was 1,147; 84 of which (7.32%) had low birth weight. To estimate the independent association between the explanatory variables (potential risk factors) and the response variable, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software. In ascending numerical order values of odds ratio > 1 indicated the positive contribution of explanatory variables or possible risk factors: "unmarried" marital status (1.076, 95% confidence interval: 0.550 to 2.104); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.08, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 1.84); history of abortion(s) (1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.44 to 2.93); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 2.76); number of prenatal consultations ≤ 5 (1.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.94 to 3.66); maternal age ≥ 36 years (3.5, 95% confidence interval: 0.40 to 30.47); maternal age ≤ 19 years (3.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 29.87); number of deliveries = 1 (3.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 44.85); personal pathological history (4.78, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 10.59); pathological obstetric history (5.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.66 to 15.18); maternal height < 150 cm (5.16, 95% confidence interval: 3.08 to 8.65); number of births ≥ 5 (5.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.51 to 69.99); and smoking (15.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 227.97). Four of the independent variables (personal pathological history, obstetric pathological history, maternal stature <150 centimeters and smoking) showed a significant positive contribution, thus they can be considered as clear risk factors for low birth weight. The use of the logistic regression model in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, will allow estimating the probability of low birth weight for each pregnant woman in the future, which will be useful for the health authorities of the region.

Search for dijet resonances in 7 TeV pp collisions at CMS.

PubMed

Khachatryan, V; Sirunyan, A M; Tumasyan, A; Adam, W; Bergauer, T; Dragicevic, M; Erö, J; Fabjan, C; Friedl, M; Frühwirth, R; Ghete, V M; Hammer, J; Hänsel, S; Hartl, C; Hoch, M; Hörmann, N; Hrubec, J; Jeitler, M; Kasieczka, G; Kiesenhofer, W; Krammer, M; Liko, D; Mikulec, I; Pernicka, M; Rohringer, H; Schöfbeck, R; Strauss, J; Taurok, A; Teischinger, F; Waltenberger, W; Walzel, G; Widl, E; Wulz, C-E; Mossolov, V; Shumeiko, N; Suarez Gonzalez, J; Benucci, L; Ceard, L; De Wolf, E A; Janssen, X; Maes, T; Mucibello, L; Ochesanu, S; Roland, B; Rougny, R; Selvaggi, M; Van Haevermaet, H; Van Mechelen, P; Van Remortel, N; Adler, V; Beauceron, S; Blyweert, S; D'Hondt, J; Devroede, O; Kalogeropoulos, A; Maes, J; Maes, M; Tavernier, S; Van Doninck, W; Van Mulders, P; Villella, I; Chabert, E C; Charaf, O; Clerbaux, B; De Lentdecker, G; Dero, V; Gay, A P R; Hammad, G H; Hreus, T; Marage, P E; Thomas, L; Vander Velde, C; Vanlaer, P; Wickens, J; Costantini, S; Grunewald, M; Klein, B; Marinov, A; Ryckbosch, D; 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Sanchez, A K; Sawley, M-C; Stieger, B; Tauscher, L; Thea, A; Theofilatos, K; Treille, D; Urscheler, C; Wallny, R; Weber, M; Wehrli, L; Weng, J; Aguiló, E; Amsler, C; Chiochia, V; De Visscher, S; Favaro, C; Ivova Rikova, M; Jaeger, A; Millan Mejias, B; Regenfus, C; Robmann, P; Rommerskirchen, T; Schmidt, A; Snoek, H; Wilke, L; Chang, Y H; Chen, K H; Chen, W T; Dutta, S; Go, A; Kuo, C M; Li, S W; Lin, W; Liu, M H; Liu, Z K; Lu, Y J; Wu, J H; Yu, S S; Bartalini, P; Chang, P; Chang, Y H; Chang, Y W; Chao, Y; Chen, K F; Hou, W-S; Hsiung, Y; Kao, K Y; Lei, Y J; Lu, R-S; Shiu, J G; Tzeng, Y M; Wang, M; Wei, J T; Adiguzel, A; Bakirci, M N; Cerci, S; Demir, Z; Dozen, C; Dumanoglu, I; Eskut, E; Girgis, S; Gökbulut, G; Güler, Y; Gurpinar, E; Hos, I; Kangal, E E; Karaman, T; Kayis Topaksu, A; Nart, A; Onengüt, G; Ozdemir, K; Ozturk, S; Polatöz, A; Sogut, K; Tali, B; Topakli, H; Uzun, D; Vergili, L N; Vergili, M; Zorbilmez, C; Akin, I V; Aliev, T; Bilmis, S; Deniz, M; Gamsizkan, H; Guler, A M; Ocalan, K; Ozpineci, A; Serin, M; Sever, R; Surat, U E; Yildirim, E; Zeyrek, M; Deliomeroglu, M; Demir, D; Gülmez, E; Halu, A; Isildak, B; Kaya, M; Kaya, O; Ozbek, M; Ozkorucuklu, S; Sonmez, N; Levchuk, L; Bell, P; Bostock, F; Brooke, J J; Cheng, T L; Cussans, D; Frazier, R; Goldstein, J; Grimes, M; Hansen, M; Heath, G P; Heath, H F; Huckvale, B; Jackson, J; Kreczko, L; Metson, S; Newbold, D M; Nirunpong, K; Poll, A; Smith, V J; Ward, S; Basso, L; Bell, K W; Belyaev, A; Brew, C; Brown, R M; Camanzi, B; Cockerill, D J A; Coughlan, J A; Harder, K; Harper, S; Kennedy, B W; Olaiya, E; Petyt, D; Radburn-Smith, B C; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C H; Tomalin, I R; Womersley, W J; Worm, S D; Bainbridge, R; Ball, G; Ballin, J; Beuselinck, R; Buchmuller, O; Colling, D; Cripps, N; Cutajar, M; Davies, G; Della Negra, M; Foudas, C; Fulcher, J; Futyan, D; Guneratne Bryer, A; Hall, G; Hatherell, Z; Hays, J; Iles, G; Karapostoli, G; Lyons, L; Magnan, A-M; Marrouche, J; Nandi, R; Nash, J; Nikitenko, A; Papageorgiou, A; Pesaresi, M; Petridis, K; Pioppi, M; Raymond, D M; Rompotis, N; Rose, A; Ryan, M J; Seez, C; Sharp, P; Sparrow, A; Tapper, A; Tourneur, S; Vazquez Acosta, M; Virdee, T; Wakefield, S; Wardrope, D; Whyntie, T; Barrett, M; Chadwick, M; Cole, J E; Hobson, P R; Khan, A; Kyberd, P; Leslie, D; Martin, W; Reid, I D; Teodorescu, L; Hatakeyama, K; Bose, T; Carrera Jarrin, E; Clough, A; Fantasia, C; Heister, A; St John, J; Lawson, P; Lazic, D; Rohlf, J; Sperka, D; Sulak, L; Andrea, J; Avetisyan, A; Bhattacharya, S; Chou, J P; Cutts, D; Esen, S; Ferapontov, A; Heintz, U; Jabeen, S; Kukartsev, G; Landsberg, G; Narain, M; Nguyen, D; Segala, M; Speer, T; Tsang, K V; Borgia, M A; Breedon, R; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, M; Cebra, D; Chertok, M; Conway, J; Cox, P T; Dolen, J; Erbacher, R; Friis, E; Ko, W; Kopecky, A; Lander, R; Liu, H; Maruyama, S; Miceli, T; Nikolic, M; Pellett, D; Robles, J; Schwarz, T; Searle, M; Smith, J; Squires, M; Tripathi, M; Vasquez Sierra, R; Veelken, C; Andreev, V; Arisaka, K; Cline, D; Cousins, R; Deisher, A; Duris, J; Erhan, S; Farrell, C; Hauser, J; Ignatenko, M; Jarvis, C; Plager, C; Rakness, G; Schlein, P; Tucker, J; Valuev, V; Babb, J; Clare, R; Ellison, J; Gary, J W; Giordano, F; Hanson, G; Jeng, G Y; Kao, S C; Liu, F; Liu, H; Luthra, A; Nguyen, H; Pasztor, G; Satpathy, A; Shen, B C; Stringer, R; Sturdy, J; Sumowidagdo, S; Wilken, R; Wimpenny, S; Andrews, W; Branson, J G; Dusinberre, E; Evans, D; Golf, F; Holzner, A; Kelley, R; Lebourgeois, M; Letts, J; Mangano, B; Muelmenstaedt, J; Padhi, S; Palmer, C; Petrucciani, G; Pi, H; Pieri, M; Ranieri, R; Sani, M; Sharma, V; Simon, S; Tu, Y; Vartak, A; Würthwein, F; Yagil, A; Barge, D; Bellan, R; Campagnari, C; D'Alfonso, M; Danielson, T; Geffert, P; Incandela, J; Justus, C; Kalavase, P; Koay, S A; Kovalskyi, D; Krutelyov, V; Lowette, S; McColl, N; Pavlunin, V; Rebassoo, F; Ribnik, J; Richman, J; Rossin, R; Stuart, D; To, W; Vlimant, J R; Witherell, M; Bornheim, A; Bunn, J; Chen, Y; Gataullin, M; Kcira, D; Litvine, V; Ma, Y; Mott, A; Newman, H B; Rogan, C; Shin, K; Timciuc, V; Traczyk, P; Veverka, J; Wilkinson, R; Yang, Y; Zhu, R Y; Akgun, B; Calamba, A; Carroll, R; Ferguson, T; Iiyama, Y; Jang, D W; Jun, S Y; Liu, Y F; Paulini, M; Russ, J; Terentyev, N; Vogel, H; Vorobiev, I; Cumalat, J P; Dinardo, M E; Drell, B R; Edelmaier, C J; Ford, W T; Heyburn, B; Luiggi Lopez, E; Nauenberg, U; Smith, J G; Stenson, K; Ulmer, K A; Wagner, S R; Zang, S L; Agostino, L; Alexander, J; Blekman, F; Chatterjee, A; Das, S; Eggert, N; Fields, L J; Gibbons, L K; Heltsley, B; Henriksson, K; Hopkins, W; Khukhunaishvili, A; Kreis, B; Kuznetsov, V; Liu, Y; Nicolas Kaufman, G; Patterson, J R; Puigh, D; Riley, D; Ryd, A; Saelim, M; Shi, X; Sun, W; Teo, W D; Thom, J; Thompson, J; Vaughan, J; Weng, Y; Winstrom, L; Wittich, P; Biselli, A; Cirino, G; Winn, D; Abdullin, S; Albrow, M; Anderson, J; Apollinari, G; Atac, M; Bakken, J A; Banerjee, S; Bauerdick, L A T; Beretvas, A; Berryhill, J; Bhat, P C; Bloch, I; Borcherding, F; Burkett, K; Butler, J N; Chetluru, V; Cheung, H W K; Chlebana, F; Cihangir, S; Demarteau, M; Eartly, D P; Elvira, V D; Fisk, I; Freeman, J; Gao, Y; Gottschalk, E; Green, D; Gunthoti, K; Gutsche, O; Hahn, A; Hanlon, J; Harris, R M; Hirschauer, J; Hooberman, B; James, E; Jensen, H; Johnson, M; Joshi, U; Khatiwada, R; Kilminster, B; Klima, B; Kousouris, K; Kunori, S; Kwan, S; Limon, P; Lipton, R; Lykken, J; Maeshima, K; Marraffino, J M; Mason, D; McBride, P; McCauley, T; Miao, T; Mishra, K; Mrenna, S; Musienko, Y; Newman-Holmes, C; O'Dell, V; Popescu, S; Pordes, R; Prokofyev, O; Saoulidou, N; Sexton-Kennedy, E; Sharma, S; Soha, A; Spalding, W J; Spiegel, L; Tan, P; Taylor, L; Tkaczyk, S; Uplegger, L; Vaandering, E W; Vidal, R; Whitmore, J; Wu, W; Yang, F; Yumiceva, F; Yun, J C; Acosta, D; Avery, P; Bourilkov, D; Chen, M; Di Giovanni, G P; Dobur, D; Drozdetskiy, A; Field, R D; Fisher, M; Fu, Y; Furic, I K; Gartner, J; Goldberg, S; Kim, B; Klimenko, S; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kotov, K; Kropivnitskaya, A; Kypreos, T; Matchev, K; Mitselmakher, G; Muniz, L; Pakhotin, Y; Petterson, M; Prescott, C; Remington, R; Schmitt, M; Scurlock, B; Sellers, P; Snowball, M; Wang, D; Yelton, J; Zakaria, M; Ceron, C; Gaultney, V; Kramer, L; Lebolo, L M; Linn, S; Markowitz, P; Martinez, G; Mesa, D; Rodriguez, J L; Adams, T; Askew, A; Bochenek, J; Chen, J; Diamond, B; Gleyzer, S V; Haas, J; Hagopian, S; Hagopian, V; Jenkins, M; Johnson, K F; Prosper, H; Sekmen, S; Veeraraghavan, V; Baarmand, M M; Dorney, B; Guragain, S; Hohlmann, M; Kalakhety, H; Mermerkaya, H; Ralich, R; Vodopiyanov, I; Adams, M R; Anghel, I M; Apanasevich, L; Bai, Y; Bazterra, V E; Betts, R R; Callner, J; Cavanaugh, R; Dragoiu, C; Garcia-Solis, E J; Gerber, C E; Hofman, D J; Khalatyan, S; Lacroix, F; O'Brien, C; Silvestre, C; Smoron, A; Strom, D; Varelas, N; Akgun, U; Albayrak, E A; Bilki, B; Cankocak, K; Clarida, W; Duru, F; Lae, C K; McCliment, E; Merlo, J-P; Mestvirishvili, A; Moeller, A; Nachtman, J; Newsom, C R; Norbeck, E; Olson, J; Onel, Y; Ozok, F; Sen, S; Wetzel, J; Yetkin, T; Yi, K; Barnett, B A; Blumenfeld, B; Bonato, A; Eskew, C; Fehling, D; Giurgiu, G; Gritsan, A V; Guo, Z J; Hu, G; Maksimovic, P; Rappoccio, S; Swartz, M; Tran, N V; Whitbeck, A; Baringer, P; Bean, A; Benelli, G; Grachov, O; Murray, M; Noonan, D; Radicci, V; Sanders, S; Wood, J S; Zhukova, V; Bandurin, D; Bolton, T; Chakaberia, I; Ivanov, A; Makouski, M; Maravin, Y; Shrestha, S; Svintradze, I; Wan, Z; Gronberg, J; Lange, D; Wright, D; Baden, A; Boutemeur, M; Eno, S C; Ferencek, D; Gomez, J A; Hadley, N J; Kellogg, R G; Kirn, M; Lu, Y; Mignerey, A C; Rossato, K; Rumerio, P; Santanastasio, F; Skuja, A; Temple, J; Tonjes, M B; Tonwar, S C; Twedt, E; Alver, B; Bauer, G; Bendavid, J; Busza, W; Butz, E; Cali, I A; Chan, M; Dutta, V; Everaerts, P; Gomez Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; Hahn, K A; Harris, P; Kim, Y; Klute, M; Lee, Y-J; Li, W; Loizides, C; Luckey, P D; Ma, T; Nahn, S; Paus, C; Roland, C; Roland, G; Rudolph, M; Stephans, G S F; Sumorok, K; Sung, K; Wenger, E A; Wyslouch, B; Xie, S; Yang, M; Yilmaz, Y; Yoon, A S; Zanetti, M; Cole, P; Cooper, S I; Cushman, P; Dahmes, B; De Benedetti, A; Dudero, P R; Franzoni, G; Haupt, J; Klapoetke, K; Kubota, Y; Mans, J; Rekovic, V; Rusack, R; Sasseville, M; Singovsky, A; Cremaldi, L M; Godang, R; Kroeger, R; Perera, L; Rahmat, R; Sanders, D A; Summers, D; Bloom, K; Bose, S; Butt, J; Claes, D R; Dominguez, A; Eads, M; Keller, J; Kelly, T; Kravchenko, I; Lazo-Flores, J; Lundstedt, C; Malbouisson, H; Malik, S; Snow, G R; Baur, U; Godshalk, A; Iashvili, I; Kharchilava, A; Kumar, A; Smith, K; Zennamo, J; Alverson, G; Barberis, E; Baumgartel, D; Boeriu, O; Chasco, M; Kaadze, K; Reucroft, S; Swain, J; Wood, D; Zhang, J; Anastassov, A; Kubik, A; Odell, N; Ofierzynski, R A; Pollack, B; Pozdnyakov, A; Schmitt, M; Stoynev, S; Velasco, M; Won, S; Antonelli, L; Berry, D; Hildreth, M; Jessop, C; Karmgard, D J; Kolb, J; Kolberg, T; Lannon, K; Luo, W; Lynch, S; Marinelli, N; Morse, D M; Pearson, T; Ruchti, R; Slaunwhite, J; Valls, N; Warchol, J; Wayne, M; Ziegler, J; Bylsma, B; Durkin, L S; Gu, J; Hill, C; Killewald, P; Ling, T Y; Rodenburg, M; Williams, G; Adam, N; Berry, E; Elmer, P; Gerbaudo, D; Halyo, V; Hebda, P; Hunt, A; Jones, J; Laird, E; Lopes Pegna, D; Marlow, D; Medvedeva, T; Mooney, M; Olsen, J; Piroué, P; Saka, H; Stickland, D; Tully, C; Werner, J S; Zuranski, A; Acosta, J G; Huang, X T; Lopez, A; Mendez, H; Oliveros, S; Ramirez Vargas, J E; Zatserklyaniy, A; Alagoz, E; Barnes, V E; Bolla, G; Borrello, L; Bortoletto, D; Everett, A; Garfinkel, A F; Gecse, Z; Gutay, L; Jones, M; Koybasi, O; Laasanen, A T; Leonardo, N; Liu, C; Maroussov, V; Meier, M; Merkel, P; Miller, D H; Neumeister, N; Potamianos, K; Shipsey, I; Silvers, D; Svyatkovskiy, A; Yoo, H D; Zablocki, J; Zheng, Y; Jindal, P; Parashar, N; Boulahouache, C; Cuplov, V; Ecklund, K M; Geurts, F J M; Liu, J H; Morales, J; Padley, B P; Redjimi, R; Roberts, J; Zabel, J; Betchart, B; Bodek, A; Chung, Y S; de Barbaro, P; Demina, R; Eshaq, Y; Flacher, H; Garcia-Bellido, A; Goldenzweig, P; Gotra, Y; Han, J; Harel, A; Miner, D C; Orbaker, D; Petrillo, G; Vishnevskiy, D; Zielinski, M; Bhatti, A; Demortier, L; Goulianos, K; Lungu, G; Mesropian, C; Yan, M; Atramentov, O; Barker, A; Duggan, D; Gershtein, Y; Gray, R; Halkiadakis, E; Hidas, D; Hits, D; Lath, A; Panwalkar, S; Patel, R; Richards, A; Rose, K; Schnetzer, S; Somalwar, S; Stone, R; Thomas, S; Cerizza, G; Hollingsworth, M; Spanier, S; Yang, Z C; York, A; Asaadi, J; Eusebi, R; Gilmore, J; Gurrola, A; Kamon, T; Khotilovich, V; Montalvo, R; Nguyen, C N; Pivarski, J; Safonov, A; Sengupta, S; Tatarinov, A; Toback, D; Weinberger, M; Akchurin, N; Bardak, C; Damgov, J; Jeong, C; Kovitanggoon, K; Lee, S W; Mane, P; Roh, Y; Sill, A; Volobouev, I; Wigmans, R; Yazgan, E; Appelt, E; Brownson, E; Engh, D; Florez, C; Gabella, W; Johns, W; Kurt, P; Maguire, C; Melo, A; Sheldon, P; Velkovska, J; Arenton, M W; Balazs, M; Boutle, S; Buehler, M; Conetti, S; Cox, B; Francis, B; Hirosky, R; Ledovskoy, A; Lin, C; Neu, C; Patel, T; Yohay, R; Gollapinni, S; Harr, R; Karchin, P E; Loggins, V; Mattson, M; Milstène, C; Sakharov, A; Anderson, M; Bachtis, M; Bellinger, J N; Carlsmith, D; Dasu, S; Efron, J; Gray, L; Grogg, K S; Grothe, M; Hall-Wilton, R; Herndon, M; Klabbers, P; Klukas, J; Lanaro, A; Lazaridis, C; Leonard, J; Liu, J; Lomidze, D; Loveless, R; Mohapatra, A; Parker, W; Reeder, D; Ross, I; Savin, A; Smith, W H; Swanson, J; Weinberg, M

2010-11-19

A search for narrow resonances in the dijet mass spectrum is performed using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.9 pb⁻¹ collected by the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level are presented on the product of the resonance cross section, branching fraction into dijets, and acceptance, separately for decays into quark-quark, quark-gluon, or gluon-gluon pairs. The data exclude new particles predicted in the following models at the 95% confidence level: string resonances, with mass less than 2.50 TeV, excited quarks, with mass less than 1.58 TeV, and axigluons, colorons, and E6 diquarks, in specific mass intervals. This extends previously published limits on these models.

Alternative methods to evaluate trial level surrogacy.

PubMed

Abrahantes, Josè Cortiñas; Shkedy, Ziv; Molenberghs, Geert

2008-01-01

The evaluation and validation of surrogate endpoints have been extensively studied in the last decade. Prentice [1] and Freedman, Graubard and Schatzkin [2] laid the foundations for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in randomized clinical trials. Later, Buyse et al. [5] proposed a meta-analytic methodology, producing different methods for different settings, which was further studied by Alonso and Molenberghs [9], in their unifying approach based on information theory. In this article, we focus our attention on the trial-level surrogacy and propose alternative procedures to evaluate such surrogacy measure, which do not pre-specify the type of association. A promising correction based on cross-validation is investigated. As well as the construction of confidence intervals for this measure. In order to avoid making assumption about the type of relationship between the treatment effects and its distribution, a collection of alternative methods, based on regression trees, bagging, random forests, and support vector machines, combined with bootstrap-based confidence interval and, should one wish, in conjunction with a cross-validation based correction, will be proposed and applied. We apply the various strategies to data from three clinical studies: in opthalmology, in advanced colorectal cancer, and in schizophrenia. The results obtained for the three case studies are compared; they indicate that using random forest or bagging models produces larger estimated values for the surrogacy measure, which are in general stabler and the confidence interval narrower than linear regression and support vector regression. For the advanced colorectal cancer studies, we even found the trial-level surrogacy is considerably different from what has been reported. In general the alternative methods are more computationally demanding, and specially the calculation of the confidence intervals, require more computational time that the delta-method counterpart. First, more flexible modeling techniques can be used, allowing for other type of association. Second, when no cross-validation-based correction is applied, overly optimistic trial-level surrogacy estimates will be found, thus cross-validation is highly recommendable. Third, the use of the delta method to calculate confidence intervals is not recommendable since it makes assumptions valid only in very large samples. It may also produce range-violating limits. We therefore recommend alternatives: bootstrap methods in general. Also, the information-theoretic approach produces comparable results with the bagging and random forest approaches, when cross-validation correction is applied. It is also important to observe that, even for the case in which the linear model might be a good option too, bagging methods perform well too, and their confidence intervals were more narrow.

Comparison of five-year outcomes of coronary artery bypass grafting versus percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with left ventricular ejection fractions≤50% versus >50% (from the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG Registry Cohort-2).

PubMed

Marui, Akira; Kimura, Takeshi; Nishiwaki, Noboru; Mitsudo, Kazuaki; Komiya, Tatsuhiko; Hanyu, Michiya; Shiomi, Hiroki; Tanaka, Shiro; Sakata, Ryuzo

2014-10-01

Coronary heart disease is a major risk factor for left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction. However, limited data are available regarding long-term benefits of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the era of drug-eluting stent or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with LV systolic dysfunction with severe coronary artery disease. We identified 3,584 patients with 3-vessel and/or left main disease of 15,939 patients undergoing first myocardial revascularization enrolled in the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG Registry Cohort-2. Of them, 2,676 patients had preserved LV systolic function, defined as an LV ejection fraction (LVEF) of >50% and 908 had impaired LV systolic function (LVEF≤50%). In patients with preserved LV function, 5-year outcomes were not different between PCI and CABG regarding propensity score-adjusted risk of all-cause and cardiac deaths. In contrast, in patients with impaired LV systolic function, the risks of all-cause and cardiac deaths after PCI were significantly greater than those after CABG (hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 2.14, p=0.03 and hazard ratio 2.39, 95% confidence interval 1.43 to 3.98, p<0.01). In both patients with moderate (35%

Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

2000-01-01

In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oranje, Andreas

2006-01-01

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Patient, surgeon, and hospital disparities associated with benign hysterectomy approach and perioperative complications.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Hutfless, Susan; Makary, Martin A; Sinno, Abdulrahman K; Tanner, Edward J; Stone, Rebecca L; Wang, Karen; Fader, Amanda N

2017-05-01

Hysterectomy is among the most common major surgical procedures performed in women. Approximately 450,000 hysterectomy procedures are performed each year in the United States for benign indications. However, little is known regarding contemporary US hysterectomy trends for women with benign disease with respect to operative technique and perioperative complications, and the association between these 2 factors with patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics. We sought to describe contemporary hysterectomy trends and explore associations between patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics with surgical approach and perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by general gynecologists from July 2012 through September 2014 were analyzed in the all-payer Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. We excluded hysterectomies performed by gynecologic oncologists, reproductive endocrinologists, and female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgeons. We included both open hysterectomies and those performed by minimally invasive surgery, which included vaginal hysterectomies. Perioperative complications were defined using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators. Surgeon hysterectomy volume during the 2-year study period was analyzed (0-5 cases annually = very low, 6-10 = low, 11-20 = medium, and ≥21 = high). We utilized logistic regression and negative binomial regression to identify patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics associated with minimally invasive surgery utilization and perioperative complications, respectively. A total of 5660 hospitalizations were identified during the study period. Most patients (61.5%) had an open hysterectomy; 38.5% underwent a minimally invasive surgery procedure (25.1% robotic, 46.6% laparoscopic, 28.3% vaginal). Most surgeons (68.2%) were very low- or low-volume surgeons. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing minimally invasive surgery included older patient age (reference 45-64 years; 20-44 years: adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28), black race (reference white; adjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.78), Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.80), smaller hospital (reference large; small: adjusted odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.45; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.96), medium hospital hysterectomy volume (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 100-200: adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87), and medium vs high surgeon volume (reference high; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). Complications occurred in 25.8% of open and 8.2% of minimally invasive hysterectomies (P < .0001). Minimally invasive hysterectomy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.27) and large hysterectomy volume hospitals (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 1-100: adjusted odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-3.20; 101-200: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.16) were associated with fewer complications, while patient payer, including Medicare (reference private; adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.61), Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.04), and self-pay status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.12), and very-low and low surgeon hysterectomy volume (reference ≥21 cases; 1-5 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.47; 6-10 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.23) were associated with perioperative complications. Use of minimally invasive hysterectomy for benign indications remains variable, with most patients undergoing open, more morbid procedures. Older and black patients and smaller hospitals are associated with open hysterectomy. Patient race and payer status, hysterectomy approach, and surgeon volume were associated with perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by high-volume surgeons or by minimally invasive techniques may represent an opportunity to reduce preventable harm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating Counterfactual Risk Under Hypothetical Interventions in the Presence of Competing Events: Crystalline Silica Exposure and Mortality From two Causes of Death.

PubMed

Neophytou, Andreas M; Picciotto, Sally; Brown, Daniel M; Gallagher, Lisa E; Checkoway, Harvey; Eisen, Ellen A; Costello, Sadie

2018-04-03

Exposure to silica has been linked to excess risk of lung cancer and non-malignant respiratory disease mortality. In this study we estimated risk for both these outcomes in relation to occupational silica exposure as well as the reduction in risk that would result from hypothetical interventions on exposure in a cohort of exposed workers. Analyses were carried out in an all-male study population consisting of 2342 California diatomaceous earth workers regularly exposed to crystalline silica, followed between 1942 and 2011. We estimated subdistribution risk for each event under the natural course and interventions of interest using the parametric g-formula to adjust for healthy worker survivor bias. The risk ratio for lung cancer mortality comparing an intervention in which a theoretical maximum exposure limit was set at 0.05 mg/m3 (the current U.S. regulatory limit) to the observed exposure concentrations was 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.63, 1.22). The corresponding risk ratio for non-malignant respiratory disease mortality was 0.69 (95% confidence interval: 0.52, 0.93). Our findings suggest that risks from both outcomes would have been considerably lower if historical silica exposures in this cohort had not exceeded current regulatory limits.

Pregnancy outcome in joint hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Sundelin, Heléne E K; Stephansson, Olof; Johansson, Kari; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-01-01

An increased risk of preterm birth in women with joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is suspected. In this nationwide cohort study from 1997 through 2011, women with either joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome or both disorders were identified through the Swedish Patient Register, and linked to the Medical Birth Register. Thereby, 314 singleton births to women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome before delivery were identified. These births were compared with 1 247 864 singleton births to women without a diagnosis of joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. We used logistic regression, adjusted for maternal age, smoking, parity, and year of birth, to calculate adjusted odds ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome was not associated with any of our outcomes: preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.2), preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-2.2), cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.2), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.2-7.9), low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.7-3.6), small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4-1.8) or large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6-2.1). Examining only women with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (n = 62), we found a higher risk of induction of labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.6) and amniotomy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.0-7.1). No excess risks for adverse pregnancy outcome were seen in joint hypermobility syndrome. Women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome do not seem to be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2016-09-20

Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire's internal consistency was moderate (Cronbach's alpha = 0.56). The pilot-phase shows promising results concerning acceptability and feasibility. Pilot randomised controlled trial results indicate that the patient information is well understood and that knowledge gain on confidence intervals can be assessed with a set of six questions. German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00008561 . Registered 8th of June 2015.

Ethnic Differences in Incidence and Outcomes of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome.

PubMed

Banh, Tonny H M; Hussain-Shamsy, Neesha; Patel, Viral; Vasilevska-Ristovska, Jovanka; Borges, Karlota; Sibbald, Cathryn; Lipszyc, Deborah; Brooke, Josefina; Geary, Denis; Langlois, Valerie; Reddon, Michele; Pearl, Rachel; Levin, Leo; Piekut, Monica; Licht, Christoph P B; Radhakrishnan, Seetha; Aitken-Menezes, Kimberly; Harvey, Elizabeth; Hebert, Diane; Piscione, Tino D; Parekh, Rulan S

2016-10-07

Ethnic differences in outcomes among children with nephrotic syndrome are unknown. We conducted a longitudinal study at a single regional pediatric center comparing ethnic differences in incidence from 2001 to 2011 census data and longitudinal outcomes, including relapse rates, time to first relapse, frequently relapsing disease, and use of cyclophosphamide. Among 711 children, 24% were European, 33% were South Asian, 10% were East/Southeast Asian, and 33% were of other origins. Over 10 years, the overall incidence increased from 1.99/100,000 to 4.71/100,000 among children ages 1-18 years old. In 2011, South Asians had a higher incidence rate ratio of 6.61 (95% confidence interval, 3.16 to 15.1) compared with Europeans. East/Southeast Asians had a similar incidence rate ratio (0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 2.94) to Europeans. We determined outcomes in 455 children from the three largest ethnic groups with steroid-sensitive disease over a median of 4 years. South Asian and East/Southeast Asian children had significantly lower odds of frequently relapsing disease at 12 months (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.77; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 0.51), fewer subsequent relapses (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.81; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 0.91), lower risk of a first relapse (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.83; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.68), and lower use of cyclophosphamide (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.53 to 1.28; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.71) compared with European children. Despite the higher incidence among South Asians, South and East/Southeast Asian children have significantly less complicated clinical outcomes compared with Europeans. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2017-02-01

With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems. Ph.D. Thesis - George Washington Univ., Apr. 1985

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, P. C.

1986-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates.

Estimation of treatment effect in a subpopulation: An empirical Bayes approach.

PubMed

Shen, Changyu; Li, Xiaochun; Jeong, Jaesik

2016-01-01

It is well recognized that the benefit of a medical intervention may not be distributed evenly in the target population due to patient heterogeneity, and conclusions based on conventional randomized clinical trials may not apply to every person. Given the increasing cost of randomized trials and difficulties in recruiting patients, there is a strong need to develop analytical approaches to estimate treatment effect in subpopulations. In particular, due to limited sample size for subpopulations and the need for multiple comparisons, standard analysis tends to yield wide confidence intervals of the treatment effect that are often noninformative. We propose an empirical Bayes approach to combine both information embedded in a target subpopulation and information from other subjects to construct confidence intervals of the treatment effect. The method is appealing in its simplicity and tangibility in characterizing the uncertainty about the true treatment effect. Simulation studies and a real data analysis are presented.

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

2016-04-01

Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith's method provide nominal or close to nominal coverage when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05), as is the case in most community intervention trials. This study concludes that when a binary outcome variable is measured in a small number of large clusters, confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient may be constructed by dividing existing clusters into sub-clusters (e.g. groups of 5) and using Smith's method. The resulting confidence intervals provide nominal or close to nominal coverage across a wide range of parameters when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05). Application of this method should provide investigators with a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with a point estimator of the intraclass correlation coefficient used for determining the sample size needed for a newly designed community-based trial. © The Author(s) 2015.

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Fathy, Cherie; Kim, Jessica; Niemeyer, Katherine; Ramirez, David; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-11-01

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Singer, Marc A; Nelson, Richard L

2002-12-01

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries is an appealing management option; however, uncertainty about its safety persists. This study was conducted to compare the morbidity and mortality of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries by use of a meta-analysis of randomized, prospective trials. We searched for prospective, randomized trials in MEDLINE (1966 to November 2001), the Cochrane Library, and EMBase using the terms colon, penetrating, injury, colostomy, prospective, and randomized. Studies were included if they were randomized, controlled trials that compared the outcomes of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries. Five studies were included. Reviewers performed data extraction independently. Outcomes evaluated from each trial included mortality, total complications, infectious complications, intra-abdominal infections, wound complications, penetrating abdominal trauma index, and length of stay. Peto odds ratios for combined effect were calculated with a 95 percent confidence interval for each outcome. Heterogeneity was also assessed for each outcome. The penetrating abdominal trauma index of included subjects did not differ significantly between studies. Mortality was not significantly different between groups (odds ratio, 1.70; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51-5.66). However, total complications (odds ratio, 0.28; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.18-0.42), total infectious complications (odds ratio, 0.41; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.27-0.63), abdominal infections including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.59; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.38-0.94), abdominal infections excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.52; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.31-0.86), wound complications including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.55; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.34-0.89), and wound complications excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.43; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.25-0.76) all significantly favored primary repair. Meta-analysis of currently published randomized, controlled trials favors primary repair over fecal diversion for penetrating colon injuries.

Bullying and mental health and suicidal behaviour among 14- to 15-year-olds in a representative sample of Australian children.

PubMed

Ford, Rebecca; King, Tania; Priest, Naomi; Kavanagh, Anne

2017-09-01

To provide the first Australian population-based estimates of the association between bullying and adverse mental health outcomes and suicidality among Australian adolescents. Analysis of data from 3537 adolescents, aged 14-15 years from Wave 6 of the K-cohort of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children was conducted. We used Poisson and linear regression to estimate associations between bullying type (none, relational-verbal, physical, both types) and role (no role, victim, bully, victim and bully), and mental health (measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, symptoms of anxiety and depression) and suicidality. Adolescents involved in bullying had significantly increased Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, depression and anxiety scores in all bullying roles and types. In terms of self-harm and suicidality, bully-victims had the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval [3.26, 6.83]), suicidal ideation (prevalence rate ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval [2.83, 6.49]), suicidal plan (prevalence rate ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval [2.54, 6.58]) and attempts (prevalence rate ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [1.39, 5.13]), followed by victims then bullies. The experience of both relational-verbal and physical bullying was associated with the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.15, 6.60]), suicidal ideation or plans (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.05, 6.95]; and 4.8, 95% confidence interval [3.01, 7.64], respectively) or suicide attempts (prevalence rate ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval [1.90, 6.30]). This study presents the first national, population-based estimates of the associations between bullying by peers and mental health outcomes in Australian adolescents. The markedly increased risk of poor mental health outcomes, self-harm and suicidal ideation and behaviours among adolescents who experienced bullying highlights the importance of addressing bullying in school settings.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Steiner, Markus FC; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-01-01

Objective There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. Design A retrospective, cohort study. Setting Scotland. Participants 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Main outcome measures Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population’s risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Results Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73–86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56–84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136–169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56–82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120–175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39–74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18–53) was better than the reference population. Conclusions Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. PMID:26152675

Diagnostic accuracy of the Amsler grid and the preferential hyperacuity perimetry in the screening of patients with age-related macular degeneration: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Faes, L; Bodmer, N S; Bachmann, L M; Thiel, M A; Schmid, M K

2014-07-01

To clarify the screening potential of the Amsler grid and preferential hyperacuity perimetry (PHP) in detecting or ruling out wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Medline, Scopus and Web of Science (by citation of reference) were searched. Checking of reference lists of review articles and of included articles complemented electronic searches. Papers were selected, assessed, and extracted in duplicate. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Twelve included studies enrolled 903 patients and allowed constructing 27 two-by-two tables. Twelve tables reported on the Amsler grid and its modifications, twelve tables reported on the PHP, one table assessed the MCPT and two tables assessed the M-charts. All but two studies had a case-control design. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the Amsler grid was 0.78 (95% confidence intervals; 0.64-0.87), and the pooled specificity was 0.97 (95% confidence intervals; 0.91-0.99). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 23.1 (95% confidence intervals; 8.4-64.0) and 0.23 (95% confidence intervals; 0.14-0.39), respectively. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the PHP was 0.85 (95% confidence intervals; 0.80-0.89), and specificity was 0.87 (95% confidence intervals; 0.82-0.91). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.7 (95% confidence intervals; 4.6-9.8) and 0.17 (95% confidence intervals; 0.13-0.23). No pooling was possible for MCPT and M-charts. Results from small preliminary studies show promising test performance characteristics both for the Amsler grid and PHP to rule out wet AMD in the screening setting. To what extent these findings can be transferred to a real clinic practice still needs to be established.

Daily home gardening improved survival for older people with mobility limitations: an 11-year follow-up study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lêng, Chhian Hūi; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-01-01

Aims To test the hypothesis that gardening is beneficial for survival after taking time-dependent comorbidities, mobility, and depression into account in a longitudinal middle-aged (50–64 years) and older (≥65 years) cohort in Taiwan. Methods The cohort contained 5,058 nationally sampled adults ≥50 years old from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging (1996–2007). Gardening was defined as growing flowers, gardening, or cultivating potted plants for pleasure with five different frequencies. We calculated hazard ratios for the mortality risks of gardening and adjusted the analysis for socioeconomic status, health behaviors and conditions, depression, mobility limitations, and comorbidities. Survival models also examined time-dependent effects and risks in each stratum contingent upon baseline mobility and depression. Sensitivity analyses used imputation methods for missing values. Results Daily home gardening was associated with a high survival rate (hazard ratio: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71–0.94). The benefits were robust for those with mobility limitations, but without depression at baseline (hazard ratio: 0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.48–0.87) when adjusted for time-dependent comorbidities, mobility limitations, and depression. Chronic or relapsed depression weakened the protection of gardening. For those without mobility limitations and not depressed at baseline, gardening had no effect. Sensitivity analyses using different imputation methods yielded similar results and corroborated the hypothesis. Conclusion Daily gardening for pleasure was associated with reduced mortality for Taiwanese >50 years old with mobility limitations but without depression. PMID:27486315

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

PubMed

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

Replication of long-bone length QTL in the F9-F10 LG,SM advanced intercross.

PubMed

Norgard, Elizabeth A; Jarvis, Joseph P; Roseman, Charles C; Maxwell, Taylor J; Kenney-Hunt, Jane P; Samocha, Kaitlin E; Pletscher, L Susan; Wang, Bing; Fawcett, Gloria L; Leatherwood, Christopher J; Wolf, Jason B; Cheverud, James M

2009-04-01

Quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping techniques are frequently used to identify genomic regions associated with variation in phenotypes of interest. However, the F(2) intercross and congenic strain populations usually employed have limited genetic resolution resulting in relatively large confidence intervals that greatly inhibit functional confirmation of statistical results. Here we use the increased resolution of the combined F(9) and F(10) generations (n = 1455) of the LG,SM advanced intercross to fine-map previously identified QTL associated with the lengths of the humerus, ulna, femur, and tibia. We detected 81 QTL affecting long-bone lengths. Of these, 49 were previously identified in the combined F(2)-F(3) population of this intercross, while 32 represent novel contributors to trait variance. Pleiotropy analysis suggests that most QTL affect three to four long bones or serially homologous limb segments. We also identified 72 epistatic interactions involving 38 QTL and 88 novel regions. This analysis shows that using later generations of an advanced intercross greatly facilitates fine-mapping of confidence intervals, resolving three F(2)-F(3) QTL into multiple linked loci and narrowing confidence intervals of other loci, as well as allowing identification of additional QTL. Further characterization of the biological bases of these QTL will help provide a better understanding of the genetics of small variations in long-bone length.

Night-shift work and breast cancer risk in a cohort of Chinese women.

PubMed

Pronk, Anjoeka; Ji, Bu-Tian; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Xue, Shouzheng; Yang, Gong; Li, Hong-Lan; Rothman, Nathaniel; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Chow, Wong-Ho

2010-05-01

Shift work involving disruption of circadian rhythms has been classified as a probable cause of human cancer by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, based on limited epidemiologic evidence and abundant experimental evidence. The authors investigated this association in a population-based prospective cohort study of Chinese women. At baseline (1996-2000), information on lifetime occupational history was obtained from 73,049 women. Lifetime night-shift exposure indices were created using a job exposure matrix. During 2002-2004, self-reported data on frequency and duration of night-shift work were collected. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for major breast cancer risk factors, were calculated. During follow-up through 2007, 717 incident cases of breast cancer were diagnosed. Breast cancer risk was not associated with ever working the night shift on the basis of the job exposure matrix (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.0, 95% confidence interval: 0.9, 1.2) or self-reported history of night-shift work (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval: 0.7, 1.1). Risk was also not associated with frequency, duration, or cumulative amount of night-shift work. There were no indications of effect modification. The lack of an association between night-shift work and breast cancer adds to the inconsistent epidemiologic evidence. It may be premature to consider shift work a cause of cancer.

Selecting Sensitive Parameter Subsets in Dynamical Models With Application to Biomechanical System Identification.

PubMed

Ramadan, Ahmed; Boss, Connor; Choi, Jongeun; Peter Reeves, N; Cholewicki, Jacek; Popovich, John M; Radcliffe, Clark J

2018-07-01

Estimating many parameters of biomechanical systems with limited data may achieve good fit but may also increase 95% confidence intervals in parameter estimates. This results in poor identifiability in the estimation problem. Therefore, we propose a novel method to select sensitive biomechanical model parameters that should be estimated, while fixing the remaining parameters to values obtained from preliminary estimation. Our method relies on identifying the parameters to which the measurement output is most sensitive. The proposed method is based on the Fisher information matrix (FIM). It was compared against the nonlinear least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to guide modelers on the pros and cons of our FIM method. We present an application identifying a biomechanical parametric model of a head position-tracking task for ten human subjects. Using measured data, our method (1) reduced model complexity by only requiring five out of twelve parameters to be estimated, (2) significantly reduced parameter 95% confidence intervals by up to 89% of the original confidence interval, (3) maintained goodness of fit measured by variance accounted for (VAF) at 82%, (4) reduced computation time, where our FIM method was 164 times faster than the LASSO method, and (5) selected similar sensitive parameters to the LASSO method, where three out of five selected sensitive parameters were shared by FIM and LASSO methods.

Reanalysis of cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to low doses of radiation: bootstrap and simulation methods

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommended annual occupational dose limit is 20 mSv. Cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation in 1945 was analysed previously, using a latency model with non-linear dose response. Questions were raised regarding statistical inference with this model. Methods Cancers with over 100 deaths in the 0 - 20 mSv subcohort of the 1950-1990 Life Span Study are analysed with Poisson regression models incorporating latency, allowing linear and non-linear dose response. Bootstrap percentile and Bias-corrected accelerated (BCa) methods and simulation of the Likelihood Ratio Test lead to Confidence Intervals for Excess Relative Risk (ERR) and tests against the linear model. Results The linear model shows significant large, positive values of ERR for liver and urinary cancers at latencies from 37 - 43 years. Dose response below 20 mSv is strongly non-linear at the optimal latencies for the stomach (11.89 years), liver (36.9), lung (13.6), leukaemia (23.66), and pancreas (11.86) and across broad latency ranges. Confidence Intervals for ERR are comparable using Bootstrap and Likelihood Ratio Test methods and BCa 95% Confidence Intervals are strictly positive across latency ranges for all 5 cancers. Similar risk estimates for 10 mSv (lagged dose) are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv data for the stomach, liver, lung and leukaemia. Dose response for the latter 3 cancers is significantly non-linear in the 5 - 500 mSv range. Conclusion Liver and urinary cancer mortality risk is significantly raised using a latency model with linear dose response. A non-linear model is strongly superior for the stomach, liver, lung, pancreas and leukaemia. Bootstrap and Likelihood-based confidence intervals are broadly comparable and ERR is strictly positive by bootstrap methods for all 5 cancers. Except for the pancreas, similar estimates of latency and risk from 10 mSv are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv subcohorts. Large and significant cancer risks for Japanese survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation from the atomic bombs in 1945 cast doubt on the ICRP recommended annual occupational dose limit. PMID:20003238

Adherence to Healthy Lifestyle and Cardiovascular Diseases in the Chinese Population.

PubMed

Lv, Jun; Yu, Canqing; Guo, Yu; Bian, Zheng; Yang, Ling; Chen, Yiping; Tang, Xuefeng; Zhang, Weiyuan; Qian, Yijian; Huang, Yuelong; Wang, Xiaoping; Chen, Junshi; Chen, Zhengming; Qi, Lu; Li, Liming

2017-03-07

Adherence to a combination of healthy lifestyle factors has been related to a considerable reduction of cardiovascular risk in white populations; however, little is known whether such associations persist in nonwhite populations like the Asian population. This study aimed to examine the associations of a combination of modifiable, healthy lifestyle factors with the risks of ischemic cardiovascular diseases and estimate the proportion of diseases that could potentially be prevented by adherence to these healthy lifestyle patterns. This study examined the associations of 6 lifestyle factors with ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke (IS) in the China Kadoorie Biobank of 461,211 participants 30 to 79 years of age who did not have cardiovascular diseases, cancer, or diabetes at baseline. Low-risk lifestyle factors were defined as nonsmoking status or having stopped smoking for reasons other than illness, alcohol consumption of <30 g/day, a median or higher level of physical activity, a diet rich in vegetables and fruits and limited in red meat, a body mass index of 18.5 to 23.9 kg/m 2 , and a waist-to-hip ratio <0.90 for men and <0.85 for women. During a median of 7.2 years (3.3 million person-years) of follow-up, this study documented 3,331 incident major coronary events (MCE) and 19,348 incident ISs. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, current nonsmoking status, light to moderate alcohol consumption, high physical activity, a diet rich in vegetables and fruits and limited in red meat, and low adiposity were independently associated with reduced risks of MCE and IS. Compared with participants without any low-risk factors, the hazard ratio for participants with ≥4 low-risk factors was 0.42 (95% confidence interval: 0.34 to 0.52) for MCE and 0.61 (95% confidence interval: 0.56 to 0.66) for IS. Approximately 67.9% (95% confidence interval: 46.5% to 81.9%) of the MCE and 39.1% (95% confidence interval: 26.4% to 50.4%) of the IS cases were attributable to poor adherence to healthy lifestyle. Adherence to healthy lifestyle may substantially lower the burden of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical procedures for determination and verification of minimum reporting levels for drinking water methods.

PubMed

Winslow, Stephen D; Pepich, Barry V; Martin, John J; Hallberg, George R; Munch, David J; Frebis, Christopher P; Hedrick, Elizabeth J; Krop, Richard A

2006-01-01

The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water has developed a single-laboratory quantitation procedure: the lowest concentration minimum reporting level (LCMRL). The LCMRL is the lowest true concentration for which future recovery is predicted to fall, with high confidence (99%), between 50% and 150%. The procedure takes into account precision and accuracy. Multiple concentration replicates are processed through the entire analytical method and the data are plotted as measured sample concentration (y-axis) versus true concentration (x-axis). If the data support an assumption of constant variance over the concentration range, an ordinary least-squares regression line is drawn; otherwise, a variance-weighted least-squares regression is used. Prediction interval lines of 99% confidence are drawn about the regression. At the points where the prediction interval lines intersect with data quality objective lines of 50% and 150% recovery, lines are dropped to the x-axis. The higher of the two values is the LCMRL. The LCMRL procedure is flexible because the data quality objectives (50-150%) and the prediction interval confidence (99%) can be varied to suit program needs. The LCMRL determination is performed during method development only. A simpler procedure for verification of data quality objectives at a given minimum reporting level (MRL) is also presented. The verification procedure requires a single set of seven samples taken through the entire method procedure. If the calculated prediction interval is contained within data quality recovery limits (50-150%), the laboratory performance at the MRL is verified.

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium and the risk of stroke among men.

PubMed

Adebamowo, Sally N; Spiegelman, Donna; Flint, Alan J; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium have been inversely associated with the incidence of hypertension, a known risk factor for stroke. However, only a few studies have examined intakes of these cations in relation to risk of stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate whether high intake of magnesium, potassium, and calcium is associated with reduced stroke risk among men. We prospectively examined the associations between intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium from diet and supplements, and the risk of incident stroke among 42 669 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, aged 40 to 75 years and free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in 1986. We calculated the hazard ratio of total, ischemic, and haemorrhagic strokes by quintiles of each cation intake, and of a combined dietary score of all three cations, using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. During 24 years of follow-up, 1547 total stroke events were documented. In multivariate analyses, the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile were 0·87 (95% confidence interval, 0·74-1·02; P, trend = 0·04) for dietary magnesium, 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·76-1·05; P, trend = 0·10) for dietary potassium, and 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-1·04; P, trend = 0·25) for dietary calcium intake. The relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·74 (95% confidence interval, 0·59-0·93; P, trend = 0·003) for supplemental magnesium, 0·66 (95% confidence interval, 0·50-0·86; P, trend = 0·002) for supplemental potassium, and 1·01 (95% confidence interval, 0·84-1·20; P, trend = 0·83) for supplemental calcium intake. For total intake (dietary and supplemental), the relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·83 (95% confidence interval, 0·70-0·99; P, trend = 0·04) for magnesium, 0·88 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-4; P, trend = 6) for potassium, and 3 (95% confidence interval, 79-09; P, trend = 84) for calcium. Men in the highest quintile for a combined dietary score of all three cations had a multivariate relative risk of 0·79 (95% confidence interval, 0·67-0·92; P, trend = 0·008) for total stroke, compared with those in the lowest. A diet rich in magnesium, potassium, and calcium may contribute to reduced risk of stroke among men. Because of significant collinearity, the independent contribution of each cation is difficult to define. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Neuraxial analgesia to increase the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Mele, Michele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

External cephalic version is a medical procedure in which the fetus is externally manipulated to assume the cephalic presentation. The use of neuraxial analgesia for facilitating the version has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials, but its potential effects are still controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of neuraxial analgesia as an intervention to increase the success rate of external cephalic version. Searches were performed in electronic databases with the use of a combination of text words related to external cephalic version and neuraxial analgesia from the inception of each database to January 2016. We included all randomized clinical trials of women, with a gestational age ≥36 weeks and breech or transverse fetal presentation, undergoing external cephalic version who were randomized to neuraxial analgesia, including spinal, epidural, or combined spinal-epidural techniques (ie, intervention group) or to a control group (either intravenous analgesia or no treatment). The primary outcome was the successful external cephalic version. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean differences with a 95% confidence interval. Nine randomized clinical trials (934 women) were included in this review. Women who received neuraxial analgesia had a significantly higher incidence of successful external cephalic version (58.4% vs 43.1%; relative risk, 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.64), cephalic presentation in labor (55.1% vs 40.2%; relative risk, 1.37, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.73), and vaginal delivery (54.0% vs 44.6%; relative risk, 1.21, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.41) compared with those who did not. Women who were randomized to the intervention group also had a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (46.0% vs 55.3%; relative risk, 0.83, 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), maternal discomfort (1.2% vs 9.3%; relative risk, 0.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.99), and lower pain, assessed by the visual analog scale pain score (mean difference, -4.52 points, 95% confidence interval, -5.35 to 3.69) compared with the control group. The incidences of emergency cesarean delivery (1.6% vs 2.5%; relative risk, 0.63, 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.70), transient bradycardia (11.8% vs 8.3%; relative risk, 1.42, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-2.80), nonreassuring fetal testing, excluding transient bradycardia, after external cephalic version (6.9% vs 7.4%; relative risk, 0.93, 95% confidence interval, 0.53-1.64), and abruption placentae (0.4% vs 0.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.06-16.1) were similar. Administration of neuraxial analgesia significantly increases the success rate of external cephalic version among women with malpresentation at term or late preterm, which then significantly increases the incidence of vaginal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Point and interval estimation of pollinator importance: a study using pollination data of Silene caroliniana.

PubMed

Reynolds, Richard J; Fenster, Charles B

2008-05-01

Pollinator importance, the product of visitation rate and pollinator effectiveness, is a descriptive parameter of the ecology and evolution of plant-pollinator interactions. Naturally, sources of its variation should be investigated, but the SE of pollinator importance has never been properly reported. Here, a Monte Carlo simulation study and a result from mathematical statistics on the variance of the product of two random variables are used to estimate the mean and confidence limits of pollinator importance for three visitor species of the wildflower, Silene caroliniana. Both methods provided similar estimates of mean pollinator importance and its interval if the sample size of the visitation and effectiveness datasets were comparatively large. These approaches allowed us to determine that bumblebee importance was significantly greater than clearwing hawkmoth, which was significantly greater than beefly. The methods could be used to statistically quantify temporal and spatial variation in pollinator importance of particular visitor species. The approaches may be extended for estimating the variance of more than two random variables. However, unless the distribution function of the resulting statistic is known, the simulation approach is preferable for calculating the parameter's confidence limits.

TARGETED SEQUENTIAL DESIGN FOR TARGETED LEARNING INFERENCE OF THE OPTIMAL TREATMENT RULE AND ITS MEAN REWARD.

PubMed

Chambaz, Antoine; Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark J

2017-01-01

This article studies the targeted sequential inference of an optimal treatment rule (TR) and its mean reward in the non-exceptional case, i.e. , assuming that there is no stratum of the baseline covariates where treatment is neither beneficial nor harmful, and under a companion margin assumption. Our pivotal estimator, whose definition hinges on the targeted minimum loss estimation (TMLE) principle, actually infers the mean reward under the current estimate of the optimal TR. This data-adaptive statistical parameter is worthy of interest on its own. Our main result is a central limit theorem which enables the construction of confidence intervals on both mean rewards under the current estimate of the optimal TR and under the optimal TR itself. The asymptotic variance of the estimator takes the form of the variance of an efficient influence curve at a limiting distribution, allowing to discuss the efficiency of inference. As a by product, we also derive confidence intervals on two cumulated pseudo-regrets, a key notion in the study of bandits problems. A simulation study illustrates the procedure. One of the corner-stones of the theoretical study is a new maximal inequality for martingales with respect to the uniform entropy integral.

Software for illustrative presentation of basic clinical characteristics of laboratory tests--GraphROC for Windows.

PubMed

Kairisto, V; Poola, A

1995-01-01

GraphROC for Windows is a program for clinical test evaluation. It was designed for the handling of large datasets obtained from clinical laboratory databases. In the user interface, graphical and numerical presentations are combined. For simplicity, numerical data is not shown unless requested. Relevant numbers can be "picked up" from the graph by simple mouse operations. Reference distributions can be displayed by using automatically optimized bin widths. Any percentile of the distribution with corresponding confidence limits can be chosen for display. In sensitivity-specificity analysis, both illness- and health-related distributions are shown in the same graph. The following data for any cutoff limit can be shown in a separate click window: clinical sensitivity and specificity with corresponding confidence limits, positive and negative likelihood ratios, positive and negative predictive values and efficiency. Predictive values and clinical efficiency of the cutoff limit can be updated for any prior probability of disease. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves can be generated and combined into the same graph for comparison of several different tests. The area under the curve with corresponding confidence interval is calculated for each ROC curve. Numerical results of analyses and graphs can be printed or exported to other Microsoft Windows programs. GraphROC for Windows also employs a new method, developed by us, for the indirect estimation of health-related limits and change limits from mixed distributions of clinical laboratory data.

Add-On Antihypertensive Medications to Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Blockers in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study.

PubMed

Schroeder, Emily B; Chonchol, Michel; Shetterly, Susan M; Powers, J David; Adams, John L; Schmittdiel, Julie A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J; Steiner, John F

2018-05-07

In individuals with diabetes, the comparative effectiveness of add-on antihypertensive medications added to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker on the risk of significant kidney events is unknown. We used an observational, multicenter cohort of 21,897 individuals with diabetes to compare individuals who added β -blockers, dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, loop diuretics, or thiazide diuretics to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. We examined the hazard of significant kidney events, cardiovascular events, and death using Cox proportional hazard models with propensity score weighting. The composite significant kidney event end point was defined as the first occurrence of a ≥30% decline in eGFR to an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , initiation of dialysis, or kidney transplant. The composite cardiovascular event end point was defined as the first occurrence of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or congestive heart failure; coronary artery bypass grafting; or percutaneous coronary intervention, and it was only examined in those free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Over a maximum of 5 years, there were 4707 significant kidney events, 1498 deaths, and 818 cardiovascular events. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios for significant kidney events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.89), 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.78), and 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.41), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of mortality for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.44), 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.03), and 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 2.13), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of cardiovascular events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics compared with thiazide diuretics were 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 1.96), 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.80 to 1.39), and 1.55 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 2.27), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, calcium channel blockers were associated with a lower risk of significant kidney events and a similar risk of cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Active management of the third stage of labor with and without controlled cord traction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Du, Yongming; Ye, Man; Zheng, Feiyun

2014-07-01

To determine the specific effect of controlled cord traction in the third stage of labor in the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage. We searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science (inception to 30 October 2013). Randomized controlled trials comparing controlled cord traction with hands-off management in the third stage of labor were included. Five randomized controlled trials involving a total of 30 532 participants were eligible. No significant difference was found between controlled cord traction and hands-off management groups with respect to the incidence of severe postpartum hemorrhage (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.77-1.08), need for blood transfusion (relative risk 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.69-1.33) or therapeutic uterotonics (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.01). However, controlled cord traction reduced the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in general (relative risk 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99; number-needed-to-treat 111, 95% confidence interval 61-666), as well manual removal of the placenta (relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.84) and duration of the third stage of labor (mean difference -3.20, 95% confidence interval -3.21 to -3.19). Controlled cord traction appears to reduce the risk of any postpartum hemorrhage in a general sense, as well as manual removal of the placenta and the duration of the third stage of labor. However, the reduction in the occurrence of severe postpartum hemorrhage, need for additional uterotonics and blood transfusion is not statistically significant. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors is associated with cancer-related death after resection.

PubMed

Roland, Christina L; Starker, Lee F; Kang, Y; Chatterjee, Deyali; Estrella, Jeannelyn; Rashid, Asif; Katz, Matthew H; Aloia, Thomas A; Lee, Jeffrey E; Dasari, Arvind; Yao, James C; Fleming, Jason B

2017-03-01

Gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors have frequent loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression, a known tumor suppressor. The impact of SMAD4 loss on gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors aggressiveness or cancer-related patient outcomes is not defined. We examined the expression of SMAD4 in resected gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors and its impact on oncologic outcomes. Patients who underwent complete curative operative resection of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were identified retrospectively (n = 38). Immunohistochemical staining for SMAD4 expression was scored by a blinded pathologist and correlated with clinicopathologic features and oncologic outcomes. Twenty-nine percent of the gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were SMAD4-negative and 71% SMAD4-positive. Median overall survival was 155 months (95% confidence interval, 102-208 months). Loss of SMAD4 was associated with both decreased median disease-free survival (28 months; 95% confidence interval, 16-40) months compared with 223 months (95% confidence interval, 3-443 months) for SMAD4-positive patients (P = .03) and decreased median disease-specific survival (SMAD4: 137 [95% confidence interval, 81-194] months versus SMAD4-positive: 204 [95% confidence interval, 143-264] months; P = .04). This translated into a decrease in median overall survival (SMAD4-negative: 125 (95% confidence interval, 51-214) months versus SMAD4-positive: 185 (95% confidence interval, 138-232) months; P = .02). Consistent with the known biology of the DPC4/SMAD4 gene, an absence of its protein expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors was negatively associated with outcomes after curative operative resection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability of the identification of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children.

PubMed

Juskewitch, Justin E; Prasad, Swati; Salas, Carlos F Santillan; Huskins, W Charles

2012-01-01

To assess interobserver reliability of the identification of episodes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill hospitalized infants and children. Retrospective, cross-sectional study of the application of the 2005 consensus definition of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in infants and children by two independent, trained reviewers using information in the electronic medical record. Eighteen-bed pediatric multidisciplinary medical/surgical pediatric intensive care unit. A randomly selected sample of children admitted consecutively to the pediatric intensive care unit between May 1 and September 30, 2009. None. Sixty infants and children were selected from a total of 343 admitted patients. Their median age was 3.9 yrs (interquartile range, 1.5-12.7), 57% were female, and 68% were Caucasian. Nineteen (32%) children were identified by both reviewers as having an episode of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (88% agreement, 95% confidence interval 78-94; κ = 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.92). Among these 19 children, agreement between the reviewers for individual systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was: temperature (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); white blood cell count (89%, 95% confidence interval 67-99); respiratory rate (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); and heart rate (68%, 95% confidence interval 33-87). Episodes of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children can be identified reproducibly using the consensus definition.

What was different about exposures reported by male Australian Gulf War veterans for the 1991 Persian Gulf War, compared with exposures reported for other deployments?

PubMed

Glass, Deborah C; Sim, Malcolm R; Kelsall, Helen L; Ikin, Jill F; McKenzie, Dean; Forbes, Andrew; Ittak, Peter

2006-07-01

This study identified chemical and environmental exposures specifically associated with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Exposures were self-reported in a postal questionnaire, in the period of 2000-2002, by 1,424 Australian male Persian Gulf War veterans in relation to their 1991 Persian Gulf War deployment and by 625 Persian Gulf War veterans and 514 members of a military comparison group in relation to other active deployments. Six of 28 investigated exposures were experienced more frequently during the Persian Gulf War than during other deployments; these were exposure to smoke (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-6.6), exposure to dust (OR, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-5.3), exposure to chemical warfare agents (OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-7.9), use of respiratory protective equipment (OR, 13.6; 95% confidence interval, 7.6-26.8), use of nuclear, chemical, and biological protective suits (OR, 8.9; 95% confidence interval, 5.4-15.4), and entering/inspecting enemy equipment (OR, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-4.8). Other chemical and environmental exposures were not specific to the Persian Gulf War deployment but were also reported in relation to other deployments. The number of exposures reported was related to service type and number of deployments but not to age or rank.

Statin therapy in lower limb peripheral arterial disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Antoniou, George A; Fisher, Robert K; Georgiadis, George S; Antoniou, Stavros A; Torella, Francesco

2014-11-01

To investigate and analyse the existing evidence supporting statin therapy in patients with lower limb atherosclerotic arterial disease. A systematic search of electronic information sources was undertaken to identify studies comparing cardiovascular outcomes in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease treated with a statin and those not receiving a statin. Estimates were combined applying fixed- or random-effects models. Twelve observational cohort studies and two randomised trials reporting 19,368 patients were selected. Statin therapy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.78) and incidence of stroke (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89). A trend towards improved cardiovascular mortality (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.35-1.11), myocardial infarction (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.38-1.01), and the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.03), was identified. Meta-analyses of studies performing adjustments showed decreased all-cause mortality in statin users (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.86). Evidence supporting statins' protective role in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease is insufficient. Statin therapy seems to be effective in reducing all-cause mortality and the incidence cerebrovascular events in patients diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Agreement and accuracy using the FIGO, ACOG and NICE cardiotocography interpretation guidelines.

PubMed

Santo, Susana; Ayres-de-Campos, Diogo; Costa-Santos, Cristina; Schnettler, William; Ugwumadu, Austin; Da Graça, Luís M

2017-02-01

One of the limitations reported with cardiotocography is the modest interobserver agreement observed in tracing interpretation. This study compared agreement, reliability and accuracy of cardiotocography interpretation using the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics, American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines. A total of 151 tracings were evaluated by 27 clinicians from three centers where International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics, American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines were routinely used. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using the proportions of agreement and reliability with the κ statistic. The accuracy of tracings classified as "pathological/category III" was assessed for prediction of newborn acidemia. For all measures, 95% confidence interval were calculated. Cardiotocography classifications were more distributed with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (9, 52, 39%) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (30, 33, 37%) than with American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology (13, 81, 6%). The category with the highest agreement was American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology category II (proportions of agreement = 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.70-76), and the ones with the lowest agreement were American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology categories I and III. Reliability was significantly higher with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (κ = 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.31-0.43), and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (κ = 0.33, 95% confidence interval 0.28-0.39) than with American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology (κ = 0.15, 95% confidence interval 0.10-0.21); however, all represent only slight/fair reliability. International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence showed a trend towards higher sensitivities in prediction of newborn acidemia (89 and 97%, respectively) than American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology (32%), but the latter achieved a significantly higher specificity (95%). With American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology guidelines there is high agreement in category II, low reliability, low sensitivity and high specificity in prediction of acidemia. With International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines there is higher reliability, a trend towards higher sensitivity, and lower specificity in prediction of acidemia. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

A prospective study of the natural history of urinary incontinence in women.

PubMed

Hagan, Kaitlin A; Erekson, Elisabeth; Austin, Andrea; Minassian, Vatche A; Townsend, Mary K; Bynum, Julie P W; Grodstein, Francine

2018-05-01

Symptoms of urinary incontinence are commonly perceived to vary over time; yet, there is limited quantitative evidence regarding the natural history of urinary incontinence, especially over the long term. We sought to delineate the course of urinary incontinence symptoms over time, using 2 large cohorts of middle-aged and older women, with data collected over 10 years. We studied 9376 women from the Nurses' Health Study, age 56-81 years at baseline, and 7491 women from the Nurses' Health Study II, age 39-56 years, with incident urinary incontinence in 2002 through 2003. Urinary incontinence severity was measured by the Sandvik severity index. We tracked persistence, progression, remission, and improvement of symptoms over 10 years. We also examined risk factors for urinary incontinence progression using logistic regression models. Among women age 39-56 years, 39% had slight, 45% had moderate, and 17% had severe urinary incontinence at onset. Among women age 56-81 years, 34% had slight, 45% had moderate, and 21% had severe urinary incontinence at onset. Across ages, most women reported persistence or progression of symptoms over follow-up; few (3-11%) reported remission. However, younger women and women with less severe urinary incontinence at onset were more likely to report remission or improvement of symptoms. We found that increasing age was associated with higher odds of progression only among older women (age 75-81 vs 56-60 years; odds ratio, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.51-2.25). Among all women, higher body mass index was strongly associated with progression (younger women: odds ratio, 2.37; 95% confidence interval, 2.00-2.81; body mass index ≥30 vs <25 kg/m 2 ; older women: odds ratio, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.62-2.22). Additionally, greater physical activity was associated with lower odds of progression to severe urinary incontinence (younger women: odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-1.03; highest vs lowest quartile of activity; older women: odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-0.80). Most women with incident urinary incontinence continued to experience symptoms over 10 years; few had complete remission. Identification of risk factors for urinary incontinence progression, such as body mass index and physical activity, could be important for reducing symptoms over time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the appropriateness of applying chi-square distribution based confidence intervals to spectral estimates of helicopter flyover data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutledge, Charles K.

1988-01-01

The validity of applying chi-square based confidence intervals to far-field acoustic flyover spectral estimates was investigated. Simulated data, using a Kendall series and experimental acoustic data from the NASA/McDonnell Douglas 500E acoustics test, were analyzed. Statistical significance tests to determine the equality of distributions of the simulated and experimental data relative to theoretical chi-square distributions were performed. Bias and uncertainty errors associated with the spectral estimates were easily identified from the data sets. A model relating the uncertainty and bias errors to the estimates resulted, which aided in determining the appropriateness of the chi-square distribution based confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals were appropriate for nontonally associated frequencies of the experimental data but were inappropriate for tonally associated estimate distributions. The appropriateness at the tonally associated frequencies was indicated by the presence of bias error and noncomformity of the distributions to the theoretical chi-square distribution. A technique for determining appropriate confidence intervals at the tonally associated frequencies was suggested.

Age and fecundability in a North American preconception cohort study.

PubMed

Wesselink, Amelia K; Rothman, Kenneth J; Hatch, Elizabeth E; Mikkelsen, Ellen M; Sørensen, Henrik T; Wise, Lauren A

2017-12-01

There is a well-documented decline in fertility treatment success with increasing female age; however, there are few preconception cohort studies that have examined female age and natural fertility. In addition, data on male age and fertility are inconsistent. Given the increasing number of couples who are attempting conception at older ages, a more detailed characterization of age-related fecundability in the general population is of great clinical utility. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between female and male age with fecundability. We conducted a web-based preconception cohort study of pregnancy planners from the United States and Canada. Participants were enrolled between June 2013 and July 2017. Eligible participants were 21-45 years old (female) or ≥21 years old (male) and had not been using fertility treatments. Couples were followed until pregnancy or for up to 12 menstrual cycles. We analyzed data from 2962 couples who had been trying to conceive for ≤3 cycles at study entry and reported no history of infertility. We used life-table methods to estimate the unadjusted cumulative pregnancy proportion at 6 and 12 cycles by female and male age. We used proportional probabilities regression models to estimate fecundability ratios, the per-cycle probability of conception for each age category relative to the referent (21-24 years old), and 95% confidence intervals. Among female patients, the unadjusted cumulative pregnancy proportion at 6 cycles of attempt time ranged from 62.0% (age 28-30 years) to 27.6% (age 40-45 years); the cumulative pregnancy proportion at 12 cycles of attempt time ranged from 79.3% (age 25-27 years old) to 55.5% (age 40-45 years old). Similar patterns were observed among male patients, although differences between age groups were smaller. After adjusting for potential confounders, we observed a nearly monotonic decline in fecundability with increasing female age, with the exception of 28-33 years, at which point fecundability was relatively stable. Fecundability ratios were 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.11) for ages 25-27, 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.08) for ages 28-30, 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-1.08) for ages 31-33, 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-1.05) for ages 34-36, 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.81) for ages 37-39, and 0.40 (95% confidence interval, 0.22-0.73) for ages 40-45, compared with the reference group (age, 21-24 years). The association was stronger among nulligravid women. Male age was not associated appreciably with fecundability after adjustment for female age, although the number of men >45 years old was small (n=37). In this preconception cohort study of North American pregnancy planners, increasing female age was associated with an approximately linear decline in fecundability. Although we found little association between male age and fecundability, the small number of men in our study >45 years old limited our ability to draw conclusions on fecundability in older men. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of statistical methods for evaluating matching performance of a biometric identification device: a preliminary report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuckers, Michael E.; Hawley, Anne; Livingstone, Katie; Mramba, Nona

2004-08-01

Confidence intervals are an important way to assess and estimate a parameter. In the case of biometric identification devices, several approaches to confidence intervals for an error rate have been proposed. Here we evaluate six of these methods. To complete this evaluation, we simulate data from a wide variety of parameter values. This data are simulated via a correlated binary distribution. We then determine how well these methods do at what they say they do: capturing the parameter inside the confidence interval. In addition, the average widths of the various confidence intervals are recorded for each set of parameters. The complete results of this simulation are presented graphically for easy comparison. We conclude by making a recommendation regarding which method performs best.

Solid recovered fuel: influence of waste stream composition and processing on chlorine content and fuel quality.

PubMed

Velis, Costas; Wagland, Stuart; Longhurst, Phil; Robson, Bryce; Sinfield, Keith; Wise, Stephen; Pollard, Simon

2012-02-07

Solid recovered fuel (SRF) produced by mechanical-biological treatment (MBT) of municipal waste can replace fossil fuels, being a CO(2)-neutral, affordable, and alternative energy source. SRF application is limited by low confidence in quality. We present results for key SRF properties centered on the issue of chlorine content. A detailed investigation involved sampling, statistical analysis, reconstruction of composition, and modeling of SRF properties. The total chlorine median for a typical plant during summer operation was 0.69% w/w(d), with lower/upper 95% confidence intervals of 0.60% w/w(d) and 0.74% w/w(d) (class 3 of CEN Cl indicator). The average total chlorine can be simulated, using a reconciled SRF composition before shredding to <40 mm. The relative plastics vs paper mass ratios in particular result in an SRF with a 95% upper confidence limit for ash content marginally below the 20% w/w(d) deemed suitable for certain power plants; and a lower 95% confidence limit of net calorific value (NCV) at 14.5 MJ kg(ar)(-1). The data provide, for the first time, a high level of confidence on the effects of SRF composition on its chlorine content, illustrating interrelationships with other fuel properties. The findings presented here allow rational debate on achievable vs desirable MBT-derived SRF quality, informing the development of realistic SRF quality specifications, through modeling exercises, needed for effective thermal recovery.

An Incident Cohort Study Comparing Survival on Home Hemodialysis and Peritoneal Dialysis (Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplantation Registry)

PubMed Central

Nadeau-Fredette, Annie-Claire; Hawley, Carmel M.; Pascoe, Elaine M.; Chan, Christopher T.; Clayton, Philip A.; Polkinghorne, Kevan R.; Boudville, Neil; Leblanc, Martine

2015-01-01

Background and objectives Home dialysis is often recognized as a first-choice therapy for patients initiating dialysis. However, studies comparing clinical outcomes between peritoneal dialysis and home hemodialysis have been very limited. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplantation Registry study assessed all Australian and New Zealand adult patients receiving home dialysis on day 90 after initiation of RRT between 2000 and 2012. The primary outcome was overall survival. The secondary outcomes were on-treatment survival, patient and technique survival, and death-censored technique survival. All results were adjusted with three prespecified models: multivariable Cox proportional hazards model (main model), propensity score quintile–stratified model, and propensity score–matched model. Results The study included 10,710 patients on incident peritoneal dialysis and 706 patients on incident home hemodialysis. Treatment with home hemodialysis was associated with better patient survival than treatment with peritoneal dialysis (5-year survival: 85% versus 44%, respectively; log-rank P<0.001). Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, home hemodialysis was associated with superior patient survival (hazard ratio for overall death, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.38 to 0.59) as well as better on-treatment survival (hazard ratio for on-treatment death, 0.34; 95% confidence interval, 0.26 to 0.45), composite patient and technique survival (hazard ratio for death or technique failure, 0.34; 95% confidence interval, 0.29 to 0.40), and death-censored technique survival (hazard ratio for technique failure, 0.34; 95% confidence interval, 0.28 to 0.41). Similar results were obtained with the propensity score models as well as sensitivity analyses using competing risks models and different definitions for technique failure and lag period after modality switch, during which events were attributed to the initial modality. Conclusions Home hemodialysis was associated with superior patient and technique survival compared with peritoneal dialysis. PMID:26068181

Sample variance in weak lensing: How many simulations are required?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petri, Andrea; May, Morgan; Haiman, Zoltan

Constraining cosmology using weak gravitational lensing consists of comparing a measured feature vector of dimension N b with its simulated counterpart. An accurate estimate of the N b × N b feature covariance matrix C is essential to obtain accurate parameter confidence intervals. When C is measured from a set of simulations, an important question is how large this set should be. To answer this question, we construct different ensembles of N r realizations of the shear field, using a common randomization procedure that recycles the outputs from a smaller number N s ≤ N r of independent ray-tracing N-bodymore » simulations. We study parameter confidence intervals as a function of (N s, N r) in the range 1 ≤ N s ≤ 200 and 1 ≤ N r ≲ 105. Previous work [S. Dodelson and M. D. Schneider, Phys. Rev. D 88, 063537 (2013)] has shown that Gaussian noise in the feature vectors (from which the covariance is estimated) lead, at quadratic order, to an O(1/N r) degradation of the parameter confidence intervals. Using a variety of lensing features measured in our simulations, including shear-shear power spectra and peak counts, we show that cubic and quartic covariance fluctuations lead to additional O(1/N 2 r) error degradation that is not negligible when N r is only a factor of few larger than N b. We study the large N r limit, and find that a single, 240 Mpc/h sized 512 3-particle N-body simulation (N s = 1) can be repeatedly recycled to produce as many as N r = few × 10 4 shear maps whose power spectra and high-significance peak counts can be treated as statistically independent. Lastly, a small number of simulations (N s = 1 or 2) is sufficient to forecast parameter confidence intervals at percent accuracy.« less

Sexual activity and counseling in the first month after acute myocardial infarction among younger adults in the United States and Spain: a prospective, observational study.

PubMed

Lindau, Stacy Tessler; Abramsohn, Emily M; Bueno, Héctor; D'Onofrio, Gail; Lichtman, Judith H; Lorenze, Nancy P; Mehta Sanghani, Rupa; Spatz, Erica S; Spertus, John A; Strait, Kelly; Wroblewski, Kristen; Zhou, Shengfan; Krumholz, Harlan M

2014-12-23

United States and European cardiovascular society guidelines recommend physicians counsel patients about resuming sexual activity after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), but little is known about patients' experience with counseling about sexual activity after AMI. The prospective, longitudinal Variation in Recovery: Role of Gender on Outcomes of Young AMI Patients (VIRGO) study, conducted at 127 hospitals in the United States and Spain, was designed, in part, to evaluate gender differences in baseline sexual activity, function, and patient experience with physician counseling about sexual activity after an AMI. This study used baseline and 1-month data collected from the 2:1 sample of women (N=2349) and men (N=1152) ages 18 to 55 years with AMI. Median age was 48 years. Among those who reported discussing sexual activity with a physician in the month after AMI (12% of women, 19% of men), 68% were given restrictions: limit sex (35%), take a more passive role (26%), and/or keep the heart rate down (23%). In risk-adjusted analyses, factors associated with not discussing sexual activity with a physician included female gender (relative risk, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.11), age (relative risk, 1.05 per 10 years; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.08), and sexual inactivity at baseline (relative risk, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.15). Among patients who received counseling, women in Spain were significantly more likely to be given restrictions than U.S. women (relative risk; 1.36, 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.66). Very few patients reported counseling for sexual activity after AMI. Those who did were commonly given restrictions not supported by evidence or guidelines. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00597922. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Lansoprazole use and tuberculosis incidence in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink: A population based cohort

PubMed Central

Yates, Tom A.; Tomlinson, Laurie A.; Bhaskaran, Krishnan; Langan, Sinead; Thomas, Sara; Smeeth, Liam

2017-01-01

Background Recent in vitro and animal studies have found the proton pump inhibitor (PPI) lansoprazole to be highly active against Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Omeprazole and pantoprazole have no activity. There is no evidence that, in clinical practice, lansoprazole can treat or prevent incident tuberculosis (TB) disease. Methods and findings We studied a cohort of new users of lansoprazole, omeprazole, or pantoprazole from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink to determine whether lansoprazole users have a lower incidence of TB disease than omeprazole or pantoprazole users. Negative control outcomes of myocardial infarction (MI) and herpes zoster were also studied. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to adjust for potential confounding by a wide range of factors. We identified 527,364 lansoprazole initiators and 923,500 omeprazole or pantoprazole initiators. Lansoprazole users had a lower rate of TB disease (n = 86; 10.0 cases per 100,000 person years; 95% confidence interval 8.1–12.4) than omeprazole or pantoprazole users (n = 193; 15.3 cases per 100,000 person years; 95% confidence interval 13.3–17.7), with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.68 (0.52–0.89). No association was found with MI (adjusted HR 1.04; 95% confidence interval 1.00–1.08) or herpes zoster (adjusted HR 1.03; 95% confidence interval 1.00–1.06). Limitations of this study are that we could not determine whether TB disease was due to reactivation of latent infection or a result of recent transmission, nor could we determine whether lansoprazole would have a beneficial effect if given to people presenting with TB disease. Conclusions In this study, use of the commonly prescribed and cheaply available PPI lansoprazole was associated with reduced incidence of TB disease. Given the serious problem of drug resistance and the adverse side effect profiles of many TB drugs, further investigation of lansoprazole as a potential antituberculosis agent is warranted. PMID:29161254

Sample variance in weak lensing: How many simulations are required?

DOE PAGES

Petri, Andrea; May, Morgan; Haiman, Zoltan

2016-03-24

Constraining cosmology using weak gravitational lensing consists of comparing a measured feature vector of dimension N b with its simulated counterpart. An accurate estimate of the N b × N b feature covariance matrix C is essential to obtain accurate parameter confidence intervals. When C is measured from a set of simulations, an important question is how large this set should be. To answer this question, we construct different ensembles of N r realizations of the shear field, using a common randomization procedure that recycles the outputs from a smaller number N s ≤ N r of independent ray-tracing N-bodymore » simulations. We study parameter confidence intervals as a function of (N s, N r) in the range 1 ≤ N s ≤ 200 and 1 ≤ N r ≲ 105. Previous work [S. Dodelson and M. D. Schneider, Phys. Rev. D 88, 063537 (2013)] has shown that Gaussian noise in the feature vectors (from which the covariance is estimated) lead, at quadratic order, to an O(1/N r) degradation of the parameter confidence intervals. Using a variety of lensing features measured in our simulations, including shear-shear power spectra and peak counts, we show that cubic and quartic covariance fluctuations lead to additional O(1/N 2 r) error degradation that is not negligible when N r is only a factor of few larger than N b. We study the large N r limit, and find that a single, 240 Mpc/h sized 512 3-particle N-body simulation (N s = 1) can be repeatedly recycled to produce as many as N r = few × 10 4 shear maps whose power spectra and high-significance peak counts can be treated as statistically independent. Lastly, a small number of simulations (N s = 1 or 2) is sufficient to forecast parameter confidence intervals at percent accuracy.« less

Independent and Joint Effect of Brachial-Ankle Pulse Wave Velocity and Blood Pressure Control on Incident Stroke in Hypertensive Adults.

PubMed

Song, Yun; Xu, Benjamin; Xu, Richard; Tung, Renee; Frank, Eric; Tromble, Wayne; Fu, Tong; Zhang, Weiyi; Yu, Tao; Zhang, Chunyan; Fan, Fangfang; Zhang, Yan; Li, Jianping; Bao, Huihui; Cheng, Xiaoshu; Qin, Xianhui; Tang, Genfu; Chen, Yundai; Yang, Tianlun; Sun, Ningling; Li, Xiaoying; Zhao, Lianyou; Hou, Fan Fan; Ge, Junbo; Dong, Qiang; Wang, Binyan; Xu, Xiping; Huo, Yong

2016-07-01

Pulse wave velocity (PWV) has been shown to influence the effects of antihypertensive drugs in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Data are limited on whether PWV is an independent predictor of stroke above and beyond hypertension control. This longitudinal analysis examined the independent and joint effect of brachial-ankle PWV (baPWV) with hypertension control on the risk of first stroke. This report included 3310 hypertensive adults, a subset of the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT) with baseline measurements for baPWV. During a median follow-up of 4.5 years, 111 participants developed first stroke. The risk of stroke was higher among participants with baPWV in the highest quartile than among those in the lower quartiles (6.3% versus 2.4%; hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.60). Similarly, the participants with inadequate hypertension control had a higher risk of stroke than those with adequate control (5.1% versus 1.8%; hazard ratio, 2.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.49-3.61). When baPWV and hypertension control were examined jointly, participants in the highest baPWV quartile and with inadequate hypertension control had the highest risk of stroke compared with their counterparts (7.5% versus 1.3%; hazard ratio, 3.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.88-6.77). There was a significant and independent effect of high baPWV on stroke as shown among participants with adequate hypertension control (4.2% versus 1.3%; hazard ratio, 2.29, 95% confidence interval, 1.09-4.81). In summary, among hypertensive patients, baPWV and hypertension control were found to independently and jointly affect the risk of first stroke. Participants with high baPWV and inadequate hypertension control had the highest risk of stroke compared with other groups. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Predictors of long-term recurrent vascular events after ischemic stroke at young age: the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults.

PubMed

Pezzini, Alessandro; Grassi, Mario; Lodigiani, Corrado; Patella, Rosalba; Gandolfo, Carlo; Zini, Andrea; Delodovici, Maria Luisa; Paciaroni, Maurizio; Del Sette, Massimo; Toriello, Antonella; Musolino, Rossella; Calabrò, Rocco Salvatore; Bovi, Paolo; Adami, Alessandro; Silvestrelli, Giorgio; Sessa, Maria; Cavallini, Anna; Marcheselli, Simona; Bonifati, Domenico Marco; Checcarelli, Nicoletta; Tancredi, Lucia; Chiti, Alberto; Del Zotto, Elisabetta; Spalloni, Alessandra; Giossi, Alessia; Volonghi, Irene; Costa, Paolo; Giacalone, Giacomo; Ferrazzi, Paola; Poli, Loris; Morotti, Andrea; Rasura, Maurizia; Simone, Anna Maria; Gamba, Massimo; Cerrato, Paolo; Micieli, Giuseppe; Melis, Maurizio; Massucco, Davide; De Giuli, Valeria; Iacoviello, Licia; Padovani, Alessandro

2014-04-22

Data on long-term risk and predictors of recurrent thrombotic events after ischemic stroke at a young age are limited. We followed 1867 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke who were 18 to 45 years of age (mean age, 36.8±7.1 years; women, 49.0%), as part of the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults (IPSYS). Median follow-up was 40 months (25th to 75th percentile, 53). The primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or other arterial events. One hundred sixty-three patients had recurrent thrombotic events (average rate, 2.26 per 100 person-years at risk). At 10 years, cumulative risk was 14.7% (95% confidence interval, 12.2%-17.9%) for primary end point, 14.0% (95% confidence interval, 11.4%-17.1%) for brain ischemia, and 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.4%-1.3%) for myocardial infarction or other arterial events. Familial history of stroke, migraine with aura, circulating antiphospholipid antibodies, discontinuation of antiplatelet and antihypertensive medications, and any increase of 1 traditional vascular risk factor were independent predictors of the composite end point in multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis. A point-scoring system for each variable was generated by their β-coefficients, and a predictive score (IPSYS score) was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the 0- to 5-year score was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.71; mean, 10-fold internally cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.65). Among patients with ischemic stroke aged 18 to 45 years, the long-term risk of recurrent thrombotic events is associated with modifiable, age-specific risk factors. The IPSYS score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation.

Expression of Proteins Involved in Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition as Predictors of Metastasis and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Ptrend 0.78 0.62 0.75 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of node...Ptrend 0.71 0.67 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of high-grade tumors... logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between each of the seven SNPs and

BK Virus-Associated Nephropathy: Current Situation in a Resource-Limited Country.

PubMed

Yooprasert, P; Rotjanapan, P

Data on BK virus-associated nephropathy (BKVAN) and treatment strategy in a resource-limited country are scarce. This study aimed to evaluate epidemiology of BKVAN and its situation in Thailand. A retrospective analysis was conducted among adult kidney transplant recipients at Ramathibodi Hospital from October 2011 to September 2016. Patients' demographic data, information on kidney transplantation, immunosuppressive therapy, cytomegalovirus and BK virus infections, and allograft outcomes were retrieved and analyzed. This study included 623 kidney transplant recipients. Only 327 patients (52.49%) received BK virus infection screening, and 176 of 327 patients had allograft dysfunction as a trigger for screening. BKVAN was identified in 39 of 327 patients (11.93%). Deceased donor transplantation and cytomegalovirus infection were associated with a higher risk of BKVAN (odds ratio = 2.2, P = .024, 95% confidence intervals [1.1, 4.43], and odds ratio = 2.6, P = .006, 95% confidence intervals [1.29, 5.26], respectively). BKVAN patients were at significantly higher risk for allograft rejection (P < .001) and allograft failure (P = .036). At the end of the study, 4 graft losses were documented (12.12%). BKVAN was associated with high rate of allograft rejection and failure. However, surveillance of its complications has been underperformed at our facility. Implementing a formal practice guideline may improve allograft outcome in resource-limited countries. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

Exposure to power frequency electric fields and the risk of childhood cancer in the UK

PubMed Central

Skinner, J; Mee, T J; Blackwell, R P; Maslanyj, M P; Simpson, J; Allen, S G; Day, N E

2002-01-01

The United Kingdom Childhood Cancer Study, a population-based case–control study covering the whole of Great Britain, incorporated a pilot study measuring electric fields. Measurements were made in the homes of 473 children who were diagnosed with a malignant neoplasm between 1992 and 1996 and who were aged 0–14 at diagnosis, together with 453 controls matched on age, sex and geographical location. Exposure assessments comprised resultant spot measurements in the child's bedroom and the family living-room. Temporal stability of bedroom fields was investigated through continuous logging of the 48-h vertical component at the child's bedside supported by repeat spot measurements. The principal exposure metric used was the mean of the pillow and bed centre measurements. For the 273 cases and 276 controls with fully validated measures, comparing those with a measured electric field exposure ⩾20 V m−1 to those in a reference category of exposure <10 V m−1, odds ratios of 1.31 (95% confidence interval 0.68–2.54) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.73–2.39) for total leukaemia, 2.12 (95% confidence interval 0.78–5.78) for central nervous system cancers and 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.77–2.07) for all malignancies were obtained. When considering the 426 cases and 419 controls with no invalid measures, the corresponding odds ratios were 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.49–1.51) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.56–1.54) for total leukaemia, 1.43 (95% confidence interval 0.68–3.02) for central nervous system cancers and 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.59–1.35) for all malignancies. With exposure modelled as a continuous variable, odds ratios for an increase in the principal metric of 10 V m−1 were close to unity for all disease categories, never differing significantly from one. British Journal of Cancer (2002) 87, 1257–1266. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600602 www.bjcancer.com © 2002 Cancer Research UK PMID:12439715

A risk score for predicting coronary artery disease in women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test finding.

PubMed

Lo, Monica Y; Bonthala, Nirupama; Holper, Elizabeth M; Banks, Kamakki; Murphy, Sabina A; McGuire, Darren K; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit

2013-03-15

Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in Body Weight and Health-Related Quality of Life: 2 Cohorts of US Women

PubMed Central

Pan, An; Kawachi, Ichiro; Luo, Nan; Manson, JoAnn E.; Willett, Walter C.; Hu, Frank B.; Okereke, Olivia I.

2014-01-01

Studies have shown that body weight is a determinant of health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, few studies have examined long-term weight change with changes in HRQoL. We followed 52,682 women aged 46–71 years in the Nurses' Health Study (in 1992–2000) and 52,587 women aged 29–46 years in the Nurses’ Health Study II (in 1993–2001). Body weight was self-reported, HRQoL was measured by the Medical Outcomes Study's 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, and both were updated every 4 years. The relationship between changes in weight and HRQoL scores was evaluated at 4-year intervals by using a generalized linear regression model with multivariate adjustment for baseline age, ethnicity, menopausal status, and changes in comorbidities and lifestyle factors. Weight gain of 15 lbs (1 lb = 0.45 kg) or more over a 4-year period was associated with 2.05-point lower (95% confidence interval: 2.14, 1.95) physical component scores, whereas weight loss of 15 lbs or more was associated with 0.89-point higher (95% confidence interval: 0.75, 1.03) physical component scores. Inverse associations were also found between weight change and physical function, role limitations due to physical problems, bodily pain, general health, and vitality. However, the relations of weight change with mental component scores, social functioning, mental health, and role limitations due to emotional problems were small. PMID:24966215

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

The Role of Short-Term Memory Capacity and Task Experience for Overconfidence in Judgment under Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansson, Patrik; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

2008-01-01

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from…

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

PRIMUS/NAVCARE Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-04-08

ICD-9-CM diagnosis codes that occurred most frequently in the medical record sample - 328.9 ( otitis media , unspecified) and 465.9 (upper...when attention is focused upon a single diagnosis, the MTF CECs are no longer consistently above the PRIMUS CECs. For otitis media , the MTF CECs are...CHAMPUS-EQUIVALENT COSTS FOR SELECTED DIAGNOSES 328.9 OTITIS MEDIA , UNSPECIFIED Sample Size Mean 95% Confidence Interval Upper Limit Lower

TSP Symposium 2012 Proceedings

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-01

and Statistical Model 78 7.3 Analysis and Results 79 7.4 Threats to Validity and Limitations 85 7.5 Conclusions 86 7.6 Acknowledgments 87 7.7...Table 12: Overall Statistics of the Experiment 32 Table 13: Results of Pairwise ANOVA Analysis, Highlighting Statistically Significant Differences...we calculated the percentage of defects injected. The distribution statistics are shown in Table 2. Table 2: Mean Lower, Upper Confidence Interval

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tully, Phillip J; Cosh, Suzanne M

2013-12-01

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease patients remain unquantified. Systematic searching of Medline, Embase, SCOPUS and PsycINFO databases revealed 1025 unique citations. Aggregate generalized anxiety disorder prevalence (12 studies, N = 3485) was 10.94 per cent (95% confidence interval: 7.8-13.99) and 13.52 per cent (95% confidence interval: 8.39-18.66) employing Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria (random effects). Lifetime generalized anxiety disorder prevalence was 25.80 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20.84-30.77). In seven studies, modest correlation was evident between generalized anxiety disorder and depression, Fisher's Z = .30 (95% confidence interval: .19-.42), suggesting that each psychiatric disorder is best conceptualized as contributing unique variance to coronary heart disease prognosis.

Autonomous motivation mediates the relation between goals for physical activity and physical activity behavior in adolescents.

PubMed

Duncan, Michael J; Eyre, Emma Lj; Bryant, Elizabeth; Seghers, Jan; Galbraith, Niall; Nevill, Alan M

2017-04-01

Overall, 544 children (mean age ± standard deviation = 14.2 ± .94 years) completed self-report measures of physical activity goal content, behavioral regulations, and physical activity behavior. Body mass index was determined from height and mass. The indirect effect of intrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 162.27; 95% confidence interval [89.73, 244.70]), but not controlled motivation ( b = 5.30; 95% confidence interval [-39.05, 45.16]). The indirect effect of extrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 106.25; 95% confidence interval [63.74, 159.13]) but not controlled motivation ( b = 17.28; 95% confidence interval [-31.76, 70.21]). Weight status did not alter these findings.

Confidence intervals for a difference between lognormal means in cluster randomization trials.

PubMed

Poirier, Julia; Zou, G Y; Koval, John

2017-04-01

Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia.

Simplifying Chandra aperture photometry with srcflux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotfelty, Kenny

2014-11-01

This poster will highlight some of the features of the srcflux script in CIAO. This script combines many threads and tools together to compute photometric properties for sources: counts, rates, various fluxes, and confidence intervals or upper limits. Beginning and casual X-ray astronomers greatly benefit from the simple interface: just specify the event file and a celestial location, while power-users and X-ray astronomy experts can take advantage of the all the parameters to automatically produce catalogs for entire fields. Current limitations and future enhancements of the script will also be presented.

Appendectomy in patients with human immunodeficiency virus: Not as bad as we once thought.

PubMed

Smith, Michael C; Chung, Paul J; Constable, Yohannes C; Boylan, Matthew R; Alfonso, Antonio E; Sugiyama, Gainosuke

2017-04-01

The number of patients living with human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is growing due to advances in antiretroviral therapy. Existing literature on appendectomy within this patient population has been limited by small sample sizes. Therefore, we used a large, multiyear, nationwide database to study this topic comprehensively. Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified 338,805 patients between 2005 and 2012 who underwent laparoscopic or open appendectomy for acute appendicitis. Interval appendectomies were excluded. We used multivariable adjusted regression models to test differences between patients with human immunodeficiency virus without acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and a reference group, as well as human immunodeficiency virus with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and a reference group, with regard to duration of stay, hospital charges, in-hospital complications, and in-hospital mortality. Models were adjusted for patient age, sex, race, insurance, socioeconomic status, Elixhauser comorbidity score, and appendix perforation. There were 1,291 (0.38%) patients with human immunodeficiency virus, among which 497 (0.15%) patients had acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. In regression analysis, human immunodeficiency virus alone was not associated with adverse outcomes, while acquired immunodeficiency syndrome alone was associated with longer duration of stay (incidence rate ratio 1.40 [1.37-1.57 95% confidence interval], P < .0001), increased total charges (exponentiated coefficient 1.16 [1.10-1.23 95% confidence interval], P < .0001), and increased risk of postoperative infection (odds ratio 2.12 [1.44-3.13 95% confidence interval], P = .0002). Patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome who undergo appendectomy for acute appendicitis are subject to longer and more expensive hospital admissions and have greater rates of postoperative infections while patients with human immunodeficiency virus alone are not at risk for adverse outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

PubMed

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Statistical inference for the within-device precision of quantitative measurements in assay validation.

PubMed

Liu, Jen-Pei; Lu, Li-Tien; Liao, C T

2009-09-01

Intermediate precision is one of the most important characteristics for evaluation of precision in assay validation. The current methods for evaluation of within-device precision recommended by the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) guideline EP5-A2 are based on the point estimator. On the other hand, in addition to point estimators, confidence intervals can provide a range for the within-device precision with a probability statement. Therefore, we suggest a confidence interval approach for assessment of the within-device precision. Furthermore, under the two-stage nested random-effects model recommended by the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2, in addition to the current Satterthwaite's approximation and the modified large sample (MLS) methods, we apply the technique of generalized pivotal quantities (GPQ) to derive the confidence interval for the within-device precision. The data from the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2 illustrate the applications of the confidence interval approach and comparison of results between the three methods. Results of a simulation study on the coverage probability and expected length of the three methods are reported. The proposed method of the GPQ-based confidence intervals is also extended to consider the between-laboratories variation for precision assessment.

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Hidradenitis Suppurativa Is Associated with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: A Population-Based Analysis in the United States.

PubMed

Garg, Amit; Neuren, Erica; Strunk, Andrew

2018-06-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) has been linked to hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). However, evidence establishing a relationship between the two conditions is limited. We sought to determine the prevalence of PCOS among patients with HS and the strength of the association. We performed a cross-sectional analysis involving 22,990 patients with HS using clinical data from a multihealth system analytics platform comprising more than 55 million unique patients across all census regions of the United States. The prevalence of PCOS among patients with HS was 9.0%, compared with 2.9% in patients without HS (P < 0.0001). The likelihood of patients with HS having PCOS was 2.14 (95% confidence interval 2.04-2.24) times that of patients without HS, and PCOS was associated with HS across all subgroups. The strength of the HS association with PCOS was similar to that of diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 2.88, 95% confidence interval 2.83-2.93) and obesity (odds ratio 3.93, 95% confidence interval 3.87-3.99) with PCOS. The influence of disease severity on the strength of association with PCOS could not be assessed, nor could an HS phenotype for patients also having PCOS. This analysis could not establish directionality of relationship, nor causal link. In conclusion, PCOS is associated with HS, and patients with HS who have symptoms or signs of androgen excess should be screened for PCOS. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Stochastic Approximation Techniques to Efficiently Construct Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

PubMed

Schweiger, Regev; Fisher, Eyal; Rahmani, Elior; Shenhav, Liat; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

2018-06-22

Estimation of heritability is an important task in genetics. The use of linear mixed models (LMMs) to determine narrow-sense single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-heritability and related quantities has received much recent attention, due of its ability to account for variants with small effect sizes. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. The common way to report the uncertainty in REML estimation uses standard errors (SEs), which rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, for larger data sets (e.g., tens of thousands of individuals), the construction of SEs itself may require considerable time, as it requires expensive matrix inversions and multiplications. Here, we present FIESTA (Fast confidence IntErvals using STochastic Approximation), a method for constructing accurate CIs. FIESTA is based on parametric bootstrap sampling, and, therefore, avoids unjustified assumptions on the distribution of the heritability estimator. FIESTA uses stochastic approximation techniques, which accelerate the construction of CIs by several orders of magnitude, compared with previous approaches as well as to the analytical approximation used by SEs. FIESTA builds accurate CIs rapidly, for example, requiring only several seconds for data sets of tens of thousands of individuals, making FIESTA a very fast solution to the problem of building accurate CIs for heritability for all data set sizes.

Detection of atrial fibrillation after ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kishore, Amit; Vail, Andy; Majid, Arshad; Dawson, Jesse; Lees, Kennedy R; Tyrrell, Pippa J; Smith, Craig J

2014-02-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) confers a high risk of recurrent stroke, although detection methods and definitions of paroxysmal AF during screening vary. We therefore undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the frequency of newly detected AF using noninvasive or invasive cardiac monitoring after ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. Prospective observational studies or randomized controlled trials of patients with ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or both, who underwent any cardiac monitoring for a minimum of 12 hours, were included after electronic searches of multiple databases. The primary outcome was detection of any new AF during the monitoring period. We prespecified subgroup analysis of selected (prescreened or cryptogenic) versus unselected patients and according to duration of monitoring. A total of 32 studies were analyzed. The overall detection rate of any AF was 11.5% (95% confidence interval, 8.9%-14.3%), although the timing, duration, method of monitoring, and reporting of diagnostic criteria used for paroxysmal AF varied. Detection rates were higher in selected (13.4%; 95% confidence interval, 9.0%-18.4%) than in unselected patients (6.2%; 95% confidence interval, 4.4%-8.3%). There was substantial heterogeneity even within specified subgroups. Detection of AF was highly variable, and the review was limited by small sample sizes and marked heterogeneity. Further studies are required to inform patient selection, optimal timing, methods, and duration of monitoring for detection of AF/paroxysmal AF.

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English

2000-01-01

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

Modified Dempster-Shafer approach using an expected utility interval decision rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheaito, Ali; Lecours, Michael; Bosse, Eloi

1999-03-01

The combination operation of the conventional Dempster- Shafer algorithm has a tendency to increase exponentially the number of propositions involved in bodies of evidence by creating new ones. The aim of this paper is to explore a 'modified Dempster-Shafer' approach of fusing identity declarations emanating form different sources which include a number of radars, IFF and ESM systems in order to limit the explosion of the number of propositions. We use a non-ad hoc decision rule based on the expected utility interval to select the most probable object in a comprehensive Platform Data Base containing all the possible identity values that a potential target may take. We study the effect of the redistribution of the confidence levels of the eliminated propositions which otherwise overload the real-time data fusion system; these eliminated confidence levels can in particular be assigned to ignorance, or uniformly added to the remaining propositions and to ignorance. A scenario has been selected to demonstrate the performance of our modified Dempster-Shafer method of evidential reasoning.

Rapid Contour-based Segmentation for 18F-FDG PET Imaging of Lung Tumors by Using ITK-SNAP: Comparison to Expert-based Segmentation.

PubMed

Besson, Florent L; Henry, Théophraste; Meyer, Céline; Chevance, Virgile; Roblot, Victoire; Blanchet, Elise; Arnould, Victor; Grimon, Gilles; Chekroun, Malika; Mabille, Laurence; Parent, Florence; Seferian, Andrei; Bulifon, Sophie; Montani, David; Humbert, Marc; Chaumet-Riffaud, Philippe; Lebon, Vincent; Durand, Emmanuel

2018-04-03

Purpose To assess the performance of the ITK-SNAP software for fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) segmentation of complex-shaped lung tumors compared with an optimized, expert-based manual reference standard. Materials and Methods Seventy-six FDG PET images of thoracic lesions were retrospectively segmented by using ITK-SNAP software. Each tumor was manually segmented by six raters to generate an optimized reference standard by using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimate algorithm. Four raters segmented 76 FDG PET images of lung tumors twice by using ITK-SNAP active contour algorithm. Accuracy of ITK-SNAP procedure was assessed by using Dice coefficient and Hausdorff metric. Interrater and intrarater reliability were estimated by using intraclass correlation coefficients of output volumes. Finally, the ITK-SNAP procedure was compared with currently recommended PET tumor delineation methods on the basis of thresholding at 41% volume of interest (VOI; VOI 41 ) and 50% VOI (VOI 50 ) of the tumor's maximal metabolism intensity. Results Accuracy estimates for the ITK-SNAP procedure indicated a Dice coefficient of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.89) and a Hausdorff distance of 12.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 9.82, 15.32). Interrater reliability was an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 0.96). The intrarater reliabilities were intraclass correlation coefficients above 0.97. Finally, VOI 41 and VOI 50 accuracy metrics were as follows: Dice coefficient, 0.48 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.51) and 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.30, 0.38), respectively, and Hausdorff distance, 25.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 21.7, 31.4) and 31.3 mm (95% confidence interval: 26.8, 38.4), respectively. Conclusion ITK-SNAP is accurate and reliable for active-contour-based segmentation of heterogeneous thoracic PET tumors. ITK-SNAP surpassed the recommended PET methods compared with ground truth manual segmentation. © RSNA, 2018.

Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in order to provide robust estimates of bias and precision for constructing confidence intervals for new patients. Assumptions of linearity and non-proportional bias should be assessed thoroughly.

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

Childhood Lung Function Predicts Adult Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma-Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Overlap Syndrome.

PubMed

Bui, Dinh S; Burgess, John A; Lowe, Adrian J; Perret, Jennifer L; Lodge, Caroline J; Bui, Minh; Morrison, Stephen; Thompson, Bruce R; Thomas, Paul S; Giles, Graham G; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Jarvis, Debbie; Abramson, Michael J; Walters, E Haydn; Matheson, Melanie C; Dharmage, Shyamali C

2017-07-01

The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasing, yet there are limited data on early life risk factors. To investigate the role of childhood lung function in adult COPD phenotypes. Prebronchodilator spirometry was performed for a cohort of 7-year-old Tasmanian children (n = 8,583) in 1968 who were resurveyed at 45 years, and a selected subsample (n = 1,389) underwent prebronchodilator and post-bronchodilator spirometry. For this analysis, COPD was spirometrically defined as a post-bronchodilator FEV 1 /FVC less than the lower limit of normal. Asthma-COPD overlap syndrome (ACOS) was defined as the coexistence of both COPD and current asthma. Associations between childhood lung function and asthma/COPD/ACOS were examined using multinomial regression. At 45 years, 959 participants had neither current asthma nor COPD (unaffected), 269 had current asthma alone, 59 had COPD alone, and 68 had ACOS. The reweighted prevalence of asthma alone was 13.5%, COPD alone 4.1%, and ACOS 2.9%. The lowest quartile of FEV 1 at 7 years was associated with ACOS (odds ratio, 2.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-6.52), but not COPD or asthma alone. The lowest quartile of FEV 1 /FVC ratio at 7 years was associated with ACOS (odds ratio, 16.3; 95% confidence interval, 4.7-55.9) and COPD (odds ratio, 5.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-17.4), but not asthma alone. Being in the lowest quartile for lung function at age 7 may have long-term consequences for the development of COPD and ACOS by middle age. Screening of lung function in school age children may identify a high-risk group that could be targeted for intervention. Further research is needed to understand possible modifiers of these associations and develop interventions for children with impaired lung function.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Fermi/GBM GRB time-resolved spectral catalog (Yu+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-F.; Preece, R. D.; Greiner, J.; Bhat, P. N.; Bissaldi, E.; Briggs, M. S.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V.; Goldstein, A.; von Kienlin; A.; Kouveliotou, C.; Mailyan, B.; Meegan, C. A.; Paciesas, W. S.; Rau, A.; Roberts, O. J.; Veres, P.; Wilson-Hodge, C.; Zhang, B.-B.; van Eerten, H. J.

2016-01-01

Time-resolved spectral analysis results of BEST models: for each spectrum GRB name using the Fermi GBM trigger designation, spectrum number within individual burst, start time Tstart and end time Tstop for the time bin, BEST model, best-fit parameters of the BEST model, value of CSTAT per degrees of freedom, 10keV-1MeV photon and energy flux are given. Ep evolutionary trends: for each burst GRB name, number of spectra with Ep, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep_ and photon flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep and energy flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Ep and time and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by computer for 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by human eyes are given. (2 data files).

Evaluating the utility of hexapod species for calculating a confidence interval about a succession based postmortem interval estimate.

PubMed

Perez, Anne E; Haskell, Neal H; Wells, Jeffrey D

2014-08-01

Carrion insect succession patterns have long been used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) during a death investigation. However, no published carrion succession study included sufficient replication to calculate a confidence interval about a PMI estimate based on occurrence data. We exposed 53 pig carcasses (16±2.5 kg), near the likely minimum needed for such statistical analysis, at a site in north-central Indiana, USA, over three consecutive summer seasons. Insects and Collembola were sampled daily from each carcass for a total of 14 days, by this time each was skeletonized. The criteria for judging a life stage of a given species to be potentially useful for succession-based PMI estimation were (1) nonreoccurrence (observed during a single period of presence on a corpse), and (2) found in a sufficiently large proportion of carcasses to support a PMI confidence interval. For this data set that proportion threshold is 45/53. Of the 266 species collected and identified, none was nonreoccuring in that each showed at least a gap of one day on a single carcass. If the definition of nonreoccurrence is relaxed to include such a single one-day gap the larval forms of Necrophilaamericana, Fanniascalaris, Cochliomyia macellaria, Phormiaregina, and Luciliaillustris satisfied these two criteria. Adults of Creophilus maxillosus, Necrobiaruficollis, and Necrodessurinamensis were common and showed only a few, single-day gaps in occurrence. C.maxillosus, P.regina, and L.illustris displayed exceptional forensic utility in that they were observed on every carcass. Although these observations were made at a single site during one season of the year, the species we found to be useful have large geographic ranges. We suggest that future carrion insect succession research focus only on a limited set of species with high potential forensic utility so as to reduce sample effort per carcass and thereby enable increased experimental replication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Inverse modeling with RZWQM2 to predict water quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, Bernard T.; Malone, Robert W.; Ma, Liwang; Green, Christopher T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Jaynes, Dan B.

2011-01-01

This chapter presents guidelines for autocalibration of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) by inverse modeling using PEST parameter estimation software (Doherty, 2010). Two sites with diverse climate and management were considered for simulation of N losses by leaching and in drain flow: an almond [Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D.A. Webb] orchard in the San Joaquin Valley, California and the Walnut Creek watershed in central Iowa, which is predominantly in corn (Zea mays L.)–soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation. Inverse modeling provides an objective statistical basis for calibration that involves simultaneous adjustment of model parameters and yields parameter confidence intervals and sensitivities. We describe operation of PEST in both parameter estimation and predictive analysis modes. The goal of parameter estimation is to identify a unique set of parameters that minimize a weighted least squares objective function, and the goal of predictive analysis is to construct a nonlinear confidence interval for a prediction of interest by finding a set of parameters that maximizes or minimizes the prediction while maintaining the model in a calibrated state. We also describe PEST utilities (PAR2PAR, TSPROC) for maintaining ordered relations among model parameters (e.g., soil root growth factor) and for post-processing of RZWQM2 outputs representing different cropping practices at the Iowa site. Inverse modeling provided reasonable fits to observed water and N fluxes and directly benefitted the modeling through: (i) simultaneous adjustment of multiple parameters versus one-at-a-time adjustment in manual approaches; (ii) clear indication by convergence criteria of when calibration is complete; (iii) straightforward detection of nonunique and insensitive parameters, which can affect the stability of PEST and RZWQM2; and (iv) generation of confidence intervals for uncertainty analysis of parameters and model predictions. Composite scaled sensitivities, which reflect the total information provided by the observations for a parameter, indicated that most of the RZWQM2 parameters at the California study site (CA) and Iowa study site (IA) could be reliably estimated by regression. Correlations obtained in the CA case indicated that all model parameters could be uniquely estimated by inverse modeling. Although water content at field capacity was highly correlated with bulk density (−0.94), the correlation is less than the threshold for nonuniqueness (0.95, absolute value basis). Additionally, we used truncated singular value decomposition (SVD) at CA to mitigate potential problems with highly correlated and insensitive parameters. Singular value decomposition estimates linear combinations (eigenvectors) of the original process-model parameters. Parameter confidence intervals (CIs) at CA indicated that parameters were reliably estimated with the possible exception of an organic pool transfer coefficient (R45), which had a comparatively wide CI. However, the 95% confidence interval for R45 (0.03–0.35) is mostly within the range of values reported for this parameter. Predictive analysis at CA generated confidence intervals that were compared with independently measured annual water flux (groundwater recharge) and median nitrate concentration in a collocated monitoring well as part of model evaluation. Both the observed recharge (42.3 cm yr−1) and nitrate concentration (24.3 mg L−1) were within their respective 90% confidence intervals, indicating that overall model error was within acceptable limits.

Pregnancy and birth outcomes in couples with infertility with and without assisted reproductive technology: with an emphasis on US population-based studies.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara

2017-09-01

Infertility, defined as the inability to conceive within 1 year of unprotected intercourse, affects an estimated 80 million individuals worldwide, or 10-15% of couples of reproductive age. Assisted reproductive technology includes all infertility treatments to achieve conception; in vitro fertilization is the process by which an oocyte is fertilized by semen outside the body; non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology treatments include ovulation induction, artificial insemination, and intrauterine insemination. Use of assisted reproductive technology has risen steadily in the United States during the past 2 decades due to several reasons, including childbearing at older maternal ages and increasing insurance coverage. The number of in vitro fertilization cycles in the United States has nearly doubled from 2000 through 2013 and currently 1.7% of all live births in the United States are the result of this technology. Since the birth of the first child from in vitro fertilization >35 years ago, >5 million babies have been born from in vitro fertilization, half within the past 6 years. It is estimated that 1% of singletons, 19% of twins, and 25% of triplet or higher multiples are due to in vitro fertilization, and 4%, 21%, and 52%, respectively, are due to non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology. Higher plurality at birth results in a >10-fold increase in the risks for prematurity and low birthweight in twins vs singletons (adjusted odds ratio, 11.84; 95% confidence interval, 10.56-13.27 and adjusted odds ratio, 10.68; 95% confidence interval, 9.45-12.08, respectively). The use of donor oocytes is associated with increased risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.78) and prematurity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.83). The use of thawed embryos is associated with higher risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.57) and large-for-gestation birthweight (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.08). Among singletons, in vitro fertilization is associated with increased risk of severe maternal morbidity compared with fertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.88; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.98, respectively) and subfertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-3.00; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.35, respectively). Among twins, cesarean in vitro fertilization deliveries have significantly greater severe maternal morbidity compared to cesarean fertile deliveries (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.93). Subfertility, with or without in vitro fertilization or non-in vitro fertilization infertility treatments to achieve a pregnancy, is associated with increased risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. The major risk from in vitro fertilization treatments of multiple births (and the associated excess of perinatal morbidity) has been reduced over time, with fewer and better-quality embryos being transferred. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Family environment, hobbies and habits as psychosocial predictors of survival for surgically treated patients with breast cancer.

PubMed

Tominaga, K; Andow, J; Koyama, Y; Numao, S; Kurokawa, E; Ojima, M; Nagai, M

1998-01-01

Many psychosocial factors have been reported to influence the duration of survival of breast cancer patients. We have studied how family members, hobbies and habits of the patients may alter their psychosocial status. Female patients with surgically treated breast cancer diagnosed between 1986 and 1995 at the Tochigi Cancer Center Hospital, who provided information on the above-mentioned factors, were used. Their subsequent physical status was followed up in the outpatients clinic. The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between the results of the factors examined and the duration of the patients' survival, adjusting for the patients' age, stage of disease at diagnosis and curability, as judged by the physician in charge after the treatment. The following factors were revealed to be significant with regard to the survival of surgically treated breast cancer patients: being a widow (hazard ratio 3.29; 95% confidence interval 1.32-8.20), having a hobby (hazard ratio 0.43; 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.82), number of hobbies (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.41-1.00), number of female children (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.42-0.98), smoker (hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval 1.02-4.26) and alcohol consumption (hazard ratio 0.10; 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.72). These results suggest that psychosocial factors, including the family environment, where patients receive emotional support from their spouse and children, hobbies and the patients' habits, may influence the duration of survival in surgically treated breast cancer patients.

Pneumothorax size measurements on digital chest radiographs: Intra- and inter- rater reliability.

PubMed

Thelle, Andreas; Gjerdevik, Miriam; Grydeland, Thomas; Skorge, Trude D; Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Bakke, Per S

2015-10-01

Detailed and reliable methods may be important for discussions on the importance of pneumothorax size in clinical decision-making. Rhea's method is widely used to estimate pneumothorax size in percent based on chest X-rays (CXRs) from three measure points. Choi's addendum is used for anterioposterior projections. The aim of this study was to examine the intrarater and interrater reliability of the Rhea and Choi method using digital CXR in the ward based PACS monitors. Three physicians examined a retrospective series of 80 digital CXRs showing pneumothorax, using Rhea and Choi's method, then repeated in a random order two weeks later. We used the analysis of variance technique by Eliasziw et al. to assess the intrarater and interrater reliability in altogether 480 estimations of pneumothorax size. Estimated pneumothorax sizes ranged between 5% and 100%. The intrarater reliability coefficient was 0.98 (95% one-sided lower-limit confidence interval C 0.96), and the interrater reliability coefficient was 0.95 (95% one-sided lower-limit confidence interval 0.93). This study has shown that the Rhea and Choi method for calculating pneumothorax size has high intrarater and interrater reliability. These results are valid across gender, side of pneumothorax and whether the patient is diagnosed with primary or secondary pneumothorax. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Obesity and disability: relation among older adults living in Latin America and the Caribbean.

PubMed

Al Snih, Soham; Graham, James E; Kuo, Yong-Fang; Goodwin, James S; Markides, Kyriakos S; Ottenbacher, Kenneth J

2010-06-15

The prevalence and incidence of both obesity and disability are projected to increase in the coming decades. The authors examined the relation between obesity and disability in older adults from 6 Latin American cities participating in the Health, Well-Being and Aging in Latin America and the Caribbean (SABE) Study (1999-2000). The sample included 6,166 participants aged 65 years or more. Data on sociodemographic factors, smoking status, medical conditions, body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)(2)), and self-reported activities of daily living (ADL) were obtained. The prevalence of obesity (BMI > or = 30) ranged from 13.3% in Havana, Cuba, to 37.6% in Montevideo, Uruguay. Using a BMI of 18.5-<25 as the reference category and controlling for all covariates, the lowest odds ratio for ADL limitation was for a BMI of 25-<30 (odds ratio = 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 0.93, 1.30), and the highest odds ratio for ADL limitation was for a BMI of 35 or higher (odds ratio = 1.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.26, 2.11). The results indicated that obesity is an independent factor contributing to ADL disability in these populations and should be included in future planning to reduce the impact of disability on global health.

Taichi exercise for self-rated sleep quality in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Du, Shizheng; Dong, Jianshu; Zhang, Heng; Jin, Shengji; Xu, Guihua; Liu, Zengxia; Chen, Lixia; Yin, Haiyan; Sun, Zhiling

2015-01-01

Self-reported sleep disorders are common in older adults, resulting in serious consequences. Non-pharmacological measures are important complementary interventions, among which Taichi exercise is a popular alternative. Some experiments have been performed; however, the effect of Taichi exercise in improving sleep quality in older people has yet to be validated by systematic review. Using systematic review and meta-analysis, this study aimed to examine the efficacy of Taichi exercise in promoting self-reported sleep quality in older adults. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies. 4 English databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL, and 4 Chinese databases: CBMdisc, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang database were searched through December 2013. Two reviewers independently selected eligible trials, conducted critical appraisal of the methodological quality by using the quality appraisal criteria for randomized controlled studies recommended by Cochrane Handbook. A standardized data form was used to extract information. Meta-analysis was performed. Five randomized controlled studies met inclusion criteria. All suffered from some methodological flaws. The results of this study showed that Taichi has large beneficial effect on sleep quality in older people, as indicated by decreases in the global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score [standardized mean difference=-0.87, 95% confidence intervals (95% confidence interval) (-1.25, -0.49)], as well as its sub-domains of subjective sleep quality [standardized mean difference=-0.83, 95% confidence interval (-1.08, -0.57)], sleep latency [standardized mean difference=-0.75, 95% confidence interval (-1.42, -0.07)], sleep duration [standardized mean difference=-0.55, 95% confidence interval (-0.90, -0.21)], habitual sleep efficiency [standardized mean difference=-0.49, 95% confidence interval (-0.74, -0.23)], sleep disturbance [standardized mean difference=-0.44, 95% confidence interval (-0.69, -0.19)], and daytime dysfunction [standardized mean difference=-0.34, 95% confidence interval (-0.59, -0.09)]. Daytime sleepiness improvement was also observed. Weak evidence shows that Taichi exercise has a beneficial effect in improving self-rated sleep quality for older adults, suggesting that Taichi could be an effective alternative and complementary approach to existing therapies for older people with sleep problems. More rigorous experimental studies are required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Previous treatment, sputum-smear nonconversion, and suburban living: The risk factors of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysians.

PubMed

Mohd Shariff, Noorsuzana; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Kamaludin, Fadzilah

2016-03-01

The number of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients is increasing each year in many countries all around the globe. Malaysia has no exception in facing this burdensome health problem. We aimed to investigate the factors that contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysian tuberculosis patients. An unmatched case-control study was conducted among tuberculosis patients who received antituberculosis treatments from April 2013 until April 2014. Cases are those diagnosed as pulmonary tuberculosis patients clinically, radiologically, and/or bacteriologically, and who were confirmed to be resistant to both isoniazid and rifampicin through drug-sensitivity testing. On the other hand, pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were sensitive to all first-line antituberculosis drugs and were treated during the same time period served as controls. A total of 150 tuberculosis patients were studied, of which the susceptible cases were 120. Factors found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis are being Indian or Chinese (odds ratio 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.04-9.68; and odds ratio 6.23, 95% confidence interval 2.24-17.35, respectively), unmarried (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.09-6.09), living in suburban areas (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.08-6.19), are noncompliant (odds ratio 4.50, 95% confidence interval 1.71-11.82), were treated previously (odds ratio 8.91, 95% confidence interval 3.66-21.67), and showed positive sputum smears at the 2nd (odds ratio 7.00, 95% confidence interval 2.46-19.89) and 6th months of treatment (odds ratio 17.96, 95% confidence interval 3.51-91.99). Living in suburban areas, positive sputum smears in the 2nd month of treatment, and was treated previously are factors that independently contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Those with positive smears in the second month of treatment, have a history of previous treatment, and live in suburban areas are found to have a higher probability of becoming multidrug resistant. The results presented here may facilitate improvements in the screening and detection process of drug-resistant patients in Malaysia in the future. Copyright © 2015 Asian-African Society for Mycobacteriology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consumer Choice Between Hospital-Based and Freestanding Facilities for Arthroscopy: Impact on Prices, Spending, and Surgical Complications.

PubMed

Robinson, James C; Brown, Timothy T; Whaley, Christopher; Bozic, Kevin J

2015-09-16

Hospital-based outpatient departments traditionally charge higher prices for ambulatory procedures, compared with freestanding surgery centers. Under emerging reference-based benefit designs, insurers establish a contribution limit that they will pay, requiring the patient to pay the difference between that contribution limit and the actual price charged by the facility. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical outcomes for orthopaedic procedures performed at ambulatory surgery centers. We obtained data on 3962 patients covered by the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) who underwent arthroscopy of the knee or shoulder in the three years prior to the implementation of reference-based benefits in January 2012 and on 2505 patients covered by CalPERS who underwent arthroscopy in the two years after implementation. Control group data were obtained on 57,791 patients who underwent arthroscopy and were not subject to reference-based benefits. The impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices between hospital-based and freestanding facilities, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical complications was assessed with use of difference-in-differences multivariable regressions to adjust for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geographic location. By the second year of the program, the shift to reference-based benefits was associated with an increase in the utilization of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers by 14.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 8.1 to 20.5 percentage points) for knee arthroscopy and by 9.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 16.7 percentage points) for shoulder arthroscopy and a corresponding decrease in the use of hospital-based facilities. The mean price paid by CalPERS fell by 17.6% (95% confidence interval, -24.9% to -9.6%) for knee procedures and by 17.0% (95% confidence interval, -29.3% to -2.5%) for shoulder procedures. The shift to reference-based benefits was not associated with a change in the rate of surgical complications. In the first two years after the implementation of reference-based benefits, CalPERS saved $2.3 million (13%) on these two orthopaedic procedures. Reference-based benefits increase consumer sensitivity to price differences between freestanding and hospital-based surgical facilities. This study shows that the implementation of reference-based benefits does not result in a significant increase in measured complication rates for those subject to reference-based benefits. Copyright © 2015 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Consumer Choice Between Hospital-Based and Freestanding Facilities for Arthroscopy

PubMed Central

Robinson, James C.; Brown, Timothy T.; Whaley, Christopher; Bozic, Kevin J.

2015-01-01

Background: Hospital-based outpatient departments traditionally charge higher prices for ambulatory procedures, compared with freestanding surgery centers. Under emerging reference-based benefit designs, insurers establish a contribution limit that they will pay, requiring the patient to pay the difference between that contribution limit and the actual price charged by the facility. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical outcomes for orthopaedic procedures performed at ambulatory surgery centers. Methods: We obtained data on 3962 patients covered by the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) who underwent arthroscopy of the knee or shoulder in the three years prior to the implementation of reference-based benefits in January 2012 and on 2505 patients covered by CalPERS who underwent arthroscopy in the two years after implementation. Control group data were obtained on 57,791 patients who underwent arthroscopy and were not subject to reference-based benefits. The impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices between hospital-based and freestanding facilities, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical complications was assessed with use of difference-in-differences multivariable regressions to adjust for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geographic location. Results: By the second year of the program, the shift to reference-based benefits was associated with an increase in the utilization of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers by 14.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 8.1 to 20.5 percentage points) for knee arthroscopy and by 9.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 16.7 percentage points) for shoulder arthroscopy and a corresponding decrease in the use of hospital-based facilities. The mean price paid by CalPERS fell by 17.6% (95% confidence interval, −24.9% to −9.6%) for knee procedures and by 17.0% (95% confidence interval, −29.3% to −2.5%) for shoulder procedures. The shift to reference-based benefits was not associated with a change in the rate of surgical complications. In the first two years after the implementation of reference-based benefits, CalPERS saved $2.3 million (13%) on these two orthopaedic procedures. Conclusions: Reference-based benefits increase consumer sensitivity to price differences between freestanding and hospital-based surgical facilities. Clinical Relevance: This study shows that the implementation of reference-based benefits does not result in a significant increase in measured complication rates for those subject to reference-based benefits. PMID:26378263

The effect of English language proficiency on length of stay and in-hospital mortality.

PubMed

John-Baptiste, Ava; Naglie, Gary; Tomlinson, George; Alibhai, Shabbir M H; Etchells, Edward; Cheung, Angela; Kapral, Moira; Gold, Wayne L; Abrams, Howard; Bacchus, Maria; Krahn, Murray

2004-03-01

In ambulatory care settings, patients with limited English proficiency receive lower quality of care. Limited information is available describing outcomes for inpatients. To investigate the effect of English proficiency on length of stay (LOS) and in-hospital mortality. Retrospective analysis of administrative data at 3 tertiary care teaching hospitals (University Health Network) in Toronto, Canada. Consecutive inpatient admissions from April 1993 to December 1999 were analyzed for LOS differences first by looking at 23 medical and surgical conditions (59,547 records) and then by a meta-analysis of 220 case mix groups (189,119 records). We performed a similar analysis for in-hospital mortality. LOS and odds of in-hospital death for limited English-proficient (LEP) patients relative to English-proficient (EP) patients. LEP patients stayed in hospital longer for 7 of 23 conditions (unstable coronary syndromes and chest pain, coronary artery bypass grafting, stroke, craniotomy procedures, diabetes mellitus, major intestinal and rectal procedures, and elective hip replacement), with LOS differences ranging from approximately 0.7 to 4.3 days. A meta-analysis using all admission data demonstrated that LEP patients stayed 6% (approximately 0.5 days) longer overall than EP patients (95% confidence interval, 0.04 to 0.07). LEP patients were not at increased risk of in-hospital death (relative odds, 1.0; 95% confidence interval, 0.9 to 1.1). Patients with limited English proficiency have longer hospital stays for some medical and surgical conditions. Limited English proficiency does not affect in-hospital mortality. The effect of communication barriers on outcomes of care in the inpatient setting requires further exploration, particularly for selected conditions in which length of stay is significantly prolonged.

Limited Abdominal Sonography for Evaluation of Children With Right Lower Quadrant Pain.

PubMed

Munden, Martha M; Wai, Shannon; DiStefano, Michael C; Zhang, Wei

2017-01-01

To determine whether a complete abdominal sonographic examination is necessary in the evaluation of children with right lower quadrant pain that is suspicious for appendicitis in the emergency department and whether performing a limited, more-focused study would miss clinically important disease. With Institutional Review Board approval, a retrospective study was performed of 704 patients, from ages 5-19 years, presenting to the emergency department with right lower quadrant pain that was suspicious for appendicitis who underwent a complete abdominal sonographic examination. Data were extracted from the complete abdominal sonographic examination to see whether abnormalities were noted in the pancreas, spleen, and left kidney. Patients' medical charts were reviewed to see whether any positive findings in these organs were clinically important. Of the 65 studies with a finding that would have been missed with a limited study, only 6 were found to be clinically important. Of those, 5 were managed medically and 1 surgically. The chance of missing a potentially important finding using a limited study with our group of patients was 65 of 704 patients (9.2%), with a 95% confidence interval of 7.2% to 11.7%. The chance of missing an abnormality that was clinically important was 6 of 704 patients (0.85%), with a 95% confidence interval of 0.35% to 1.94%. In children older than 5 years with abdominal pain that is suspicious for appendicitis, performing only a limited abdominal sonographic examination that excludes the pancreas, left kidney, and spleen will yield a miss rate for clinically important disease that is acceptably low to justify the savings of examination time. © 2016 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

Improving chronic lung disease management in rural and remote Australia: the Breathe Easy Walk Easy programme.

PubMed

Johnston, Catherine L; Maxwell, Lyndal J; Boyle, Eileen; Maguire, Graeme P; Alison, Jennifer A

2013-01-01

To evaluate the impact of a chronic lung disease management training programme, Breathe Easy Walk Easy (BEWE), for rural and remote health-care practitioners. Quasi-experimental, before and after repeated measures design. Health-care practitioners (n = 33) from various professional backgrounds who attended the BEWE training workshop were eligible to participate. Breathe Easy Walk Easy, an interactive educational programme, consisted of a training workshop, access to online resources, provision of community awareness-raising materials and ongoing telephone/email support. Participant confidence, knowledge and attitudes were assessed via anonymous questionnaire before, immediately after and at 3 and 12 months following the BEWE workshop. At 12 months, local provision of pulmonary rehabilitation services and patient outcome data (6-min walk test results before and after pulmonary rehabilitation) were also recorded. Measured knowledge (score out of 19) improved significantly after the workshop (mean difference 7.6 correct answers, 95% confidence interval: 5.8-9.3). Participants' self-rated confidence and knowledge also increased. At 12-month follow up, three locally run pulmonary rehabilitation programmes had been established. For completing patients, there was a significant increase in 6-min walk distance following rehabilitation of 48 m (95% confidence interval: 18-70 m). The BEWE programme increased rural and remote health-care practitioner knowledge and confidence in delivering management for people living with chronic lung disease and facilitated the establishment of effective pulmonary rehabilitation programmes in regional and remote Australian settings where access to such programmes is limited. © 2012 The Authors. Respirology © 2012 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Etiological classifications of transient ischemic attacks: subtype classification by TOAST, CCS and ASCO--a pilot study.

PubMed

Amort, Margareth; Fluri, Felix; Weisskopf, Florian; Gensicke, Henrik; Bonati, Leo H; Lyrer, Philippe A; Engelter, Stefan T

2012-01-01

In patients with transient ischemic attacks (TIA), etiological classification systems are not well studied. The Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST), the Causative Classification System (CCS), and the Atherosclerosis Small Vessel Disease Cardiac Source Other Cause (ASCO) classification may be useful to determine the underlying etiology. We aimed at testing the feasibility of each of the 3 systems. Furthermore, we studied and compared their prognostic usefulness. In a single-center TIA registry prospectively ascertained over 2 years, we applied 3 etiological classification systems. We compared the distribution of underlying etiologies, the rates of patients with determined versus undetermined etiology, and studied whether etiological subtyping distinguished TIA patients with versus without subsequent stroke or TIA within 3 months. The 3 systems were applicable in all 248 patients. A determined etiology with the highest level of causality was assigned similarly often with TOAST (35.9%), CCS (34.3%), and ASCO (38.7%). However, the frequency of undetermined causes differed significantly between the classification systems and was lowest for ASCO (TOAST: 46.4%; CCS: 37.5%; ASCO: 18.5%; p < 0.001). In TOAST, CCS, and ASCO, cardioembolism (19.4/14.5/18.5%) was the most common etiology, followed by atherosclerosis (11.7/12.9/14.5%). At 3 months, 33 patients (13.3%, 95% confidence interval 9.3-18.2%) had recurrent cerebral ischemic events. These were strokes in 13 patients (5.2%; 95% confidence interval 2.8-8.8%) and TIAs in 20 patients (8.1%, 95% confidence interval 5.0-12.2%). Patients with a determined etiology (high level of causality) had higher rates of subsequent strokes than those without a determined etiology [TOAST: 6.7% (95% confidence interval 2.5-14.1%) vs. 4.4% (95% confidence interval 1.8-8.9%); CSS: 9.3% (95% confidence interval 4.1-17.5%) vs. 3.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0-7.1%); ASCO: 9.4% (95% confidence interval 4.4-17.1%) vs. 2.6% (95% confidence interval 0.7-6.6%)]. However, this difference was only significant in the ASCO classification (p = 0.036). Using ASCO, there was neither an increase in risk of subsequent stroke among patients with incomplete diagnostic workup (at least one subtype scored 9) compared with patients with adequate workup (no subtype scored 9), nor among patients with multiple causes compared with patients with a single cause. In TIA patients, all etiological classification systems provided a similar distribution of underlying etiologies. The increase in stroke risk in TIA patients with determined versus undetermined etiology was most evident using the ASCO classification. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Proton pump inhibitors versus histamine 2 receptor antagonists for stress ulcer prophylaxis in critically ill patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Alhazzani, Waleed; Alenezi, Farhan; Jaeschke, Roman Z; Moayyedi, Paul; Cook, Deborah J

2013-03-01

Critically ill patients may develop bleeding caused by stress ulceration. Acid suppression is commonly prescribed for patients at risk of stress ulcer bleeding. Whether proton pump inhibitors are more effective than histamine 2 receptor antagonists is unclear. To determine the efficacy and safety of proton pump inhibitors vs. histamine 2 receptor antagonists for the prevention of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in the ICU. We searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, ACPJC, CINHAL, online trials registries (clinicaltrials.gov, ISRCTN Register, WHO ICTRP), conference proceedings databases, and reference lists of relevant articles. Randomized controlled parallel group trials comparing proton pump inhibitors to histamine 2 receptor antagonists for the prevention of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in critically ill patients, published before March 2012. Two reviewers independently applied eligibility criteria, assessed quality, and extracted data. The primary outcomes were clinically important upper gastrointestinal bleeding and overt upper gastrointestinal bleeding; secondary outcomes were nosocomial pneumonia, ICU mortality, ICU length of stay, and Clostridium difficile infection. Trial authors were contacted for additional or clarifying information. Fourteen trials enrolling a total of 1,720 patients were included. Proton pump inhibitors were more effective than histamine 2 receptor antagonists at reducing clinically important upper gastrointestinal bleeding (relative risk 0.36; 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.68; p = 0.002; I = 0%) and overt upper gastrointestinal bleeding (relative risk 0.35; 95% confidence interval 0.21-0.59; p < 0.0001; I = 15%). There were no differences between proton pump inhibitors and histamine 2 receptor antagonists in the risk of nosocomial pneumonia (relative risk 1.06; 95% confidence interval 0.73-1.52; p = 0.76; I = 0%), ICU mortality (relative risk 1.01; 95% confidence interval 0.83-1.24; p = 0.91; I = 0%), or ICU length of stay (mean difference -0.54 days; 95% confidence interval -2.20 to 1.13; p = 0.53; I = 39%). No trials reported on C. difficile infection. In critically ill patients, proton pump inhibitors seem to be more effective than histamine 2 receptor antagonists in preventing clinically important and overt upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The robustness of this conclusion is limited by the trial methodology, differences between lower and higher quality trials, sparse data, and possible publication bias. We observed no differences between drugs in the risk of pneumonia, death, or ICU length of stay.

Comparative bioavailability of two oral formulations of ketorolac tromethamine: Dolac and Exodol.

PubMed

Flores-Murrieta, F J; Granados-Soto, V; Castañeda-Hernández, G; Herrera, J E; Hong, E

1994-03-01

The bioavailability of ketorolac after administration of two oral formulations containing 10 mg of ketorolac tromethamine, Exodol and Dolac, to 12 healthy Mexican volunteers was compared. Subjects received both formulations according to a randomized crossover design and blood samples were drawn at selected times during 24 h. Ketorolac plasma concentrations were determined by HPLC and individual plasma-concentration-against-time curves were constructed. Maximal plasma concentration and AUC0-24 values were compared by analysis of variance followed by Westlake's confidence interval test. 90% confidence limits ranged from 80 to 125% for Cmax and from 85 to 118% for AUC0-24. It is concluded that the two assayed formulations are bioequivalent.

Limits, discovery and cut optimization for a Poisson process with uncertainty in background and signal efficiency: TRolke 2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundberg, J.; Conrad, J.; Rolke, W.; Lopez, A.

2010-03-01

A C++ class was written for the calculation of frequentist confidence intervals using the profile likelihood method. Seven combinations of Binomial, Gaussian, Poissonian and Binomial uncertainties are implemented. The package provides routines for the calculation of upper and lower limits, sensitivity and related properties. It also supports hypothesis tests which take uncertainties into account. It can be used in compiled C++ code, in Python or interactively via the ROOT analysis framework. Program summaryProgram title: TRolke version 2.0 Catalogue identifier: AEFT_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEFT_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: MIT license No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 3431 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 21 789 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: ISO C++. Computer: Unix, GNU/Linux, Mac. Operating system: Linux 2.6 (Scientific Linux 4 and 5, Ubuntu 8.10), Darwin 9.0 (Mac-OS X 10.5.8). RAM:˜20 MB Classification: 14.13. External routines: ROOT ( http://root.cern.ch/drupal/) Nature of problem: The problem is to calculate a frequentist confidence interval on the parameter of a Poisson process with statistical or systematic uncertainties in signal efficiency or background. Solution method: Profile likelihood method, Analytical Running time:<10 seconds per extracted limit.

Feasibility of abbreviated cycles of immunochemotherapy for completely resected limited-stage CD20+ diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (CISL 12-09).

PubMed

Yoon, Dok Hyun; Sohn, Byeong Seok; Oh, Sung Yong; Lee, Won-Sik; Lee, Sang Min; Yang, Deok-Hwan; Huh, Jooryung; Suh, Cheolwon

2017-02-21

The appropriate number of chemotherapy cycles for limited stage diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients without gross residual lesions after complete resection, has not been specifically questioned. We performed a multicenter, single-arm, phase 2 study to investigate the feasibility of 3 cycles of abbreviated R-CHOP chemotherapy in low-risk patients with completely resected localized CD20+ DLBCL. Between December 2010 and May 2013, we recruited 23 patients. One was excluded due to ineligibility, and hence, 22 were included in the final analysis. The primary sites comprised the intestine (n = 15), cervical lymph nodes (n = 4), stomach (n = 1), tonsil (n = 1), and spleen (n = 1). All patients successfully completed the 3 cycles of planned R-CHOP chemotherapy. Over a median follow-up of 39.5 months (95% confidence interval, 29.9-47.1 months), both the estimated 2-year disease-free survival and overall survival rates was 95% confidence interval, 85.9-104.1%. Only one patient with an international prognostic index of 2 experienced relapse and died. The most common grade 3 or 4 toxicity condition included neutropenia (n = 8, 36.4%). Three patients experienced grade 3 febrile neutropenia, but no grade 3 or 4 non-hematologic toxicity was observed. DLBCL patients without residual lesions after resection were enrolled and R-CHOP chemotherapy was repeated at 3-week-intervals over 3 cycles. The primary endpoint was 2-year disease-free survival. Three cycles of abbreviated R-CHOP immunochemotherapy is feasible for completely resected low risk localized DLBCL.

Normative values for the unipedal stance test with eyes open and closed.

PubMed

Springer, Barbara A; Marin, Raul; Cyhan, Tamara; Roberts, Holly; Gill, Norman W

2007-01-01

Limited normative data are available for the unipedal stance test (UPST), making it difficult for clinicians to use it confidently to detect subtle balance impairments. The purpose of this study was to generate normative values for repeated trials of the UPST with eyes opened and eyes closed across age groups and gender. This prospective, mixed-model design was set in a tertiary care medical center. Healthy subjects (n= 549), 18 years or older, performed the UPST with eyes open and closed. Mean and best of 3 UPST times for males and females of 6 age groups (18-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and 80+) were documented and inter-rater reliability was tested. There was a significant age dependent decrease in UPST time during both conditions. Inter-rater reliability for the best of 3 trials was determined to be excellent with an intra-class correlation coefficient of 0.994 (95% confidence interval 0.989-0.996) for eyes open and 0.998 (95% confidence interval 0.996-0.999) for eyes closed. This study adds to the understanding of typical performance on the UPST. Performance is age-specific and not related to gender. Clinicians now have more extensive normative values to which individuals can be compared.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fasting glucose levels, incident diabetes, subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in apparently healthy adults: A 12-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Sitnik, Debora; Santos, Itamar S; Goulart, Alessandra C; Staniak, Henrique L; Manson, JoAnn E; Lotufo, Paulo A; Bensenor, Isabela M

2016-11-01

We aimed to study the association between fasting plasma glucose, diabetes incidence and cardiovascular burden after 10-12 years. We evaluated diabetes and cardiovascular events incidences, carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium scores in ELSA-Brasil (the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health) baseline (2008-2010) of 1536 adults without diabetes in 1998. We used regression models to estimate association with carotid intima-media thickness (in mm), coronary artery calcium scores (in Agatston points) and cardiovascular events according to fasting plasma glucose in 1998. Adjusted diabetes incidence rate was 9.8/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval: 7.7-13.6/1000 person-years). Incident diabetes was positively associated with higher fasting plasma glucose. Fasting plasma glucose levels 110-125 mg/dL were associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.028; 95% confidence interval: 0.003-0.053). Excluding those with incident diabetes, there was a borderline association between higher carotid intima-media thickness and fasting plasma glucose 110-125 mg/dL (β = 0.030; 95% confidence interval: -0.005 to 0.065). Incident diabetes was associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.034; 95% confidence interval: 0.015-0.053), coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 (odds ratio = 2.84; 95% confidence interval: 1.17-6.91) and the combined outcome of a coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 or incident cardiovascular event (odds ratio = 3.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-7.65). In conclusion, fasting plasma glucose in 1998 and incident diabetes were associated with higher cardiovascular burden. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of infections among residents of Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Choy, C Sm; Chen, H; Yau, C Sw; Hsu, E K; Chik, N Y; Wong, A Ty

2016-08-01

A point prevalence study was conducted to study the epidemiology of common infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong and their associated factors. Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong were selected by stratified single-stage cluster random sampling. All residents aged 65 years or above from the recruited homes were surveyed. Infections were identified using standardised definitions. Demographic and health information-including medical history, immunisation record, antibiotic use, and activities of daily living (as measured by Barthel Index)-was collected by a survey team to determine any associated factors. Data were collected from 3857 residents in 46 Residential Care Homes for the Elderly from February to May 2014. A total of 105 residents had at least one type of infection based on the survey definition. The overall prevalence of all infections was 2.7% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-3.4%). The three most common infections were of the respiratory tract (1.3%; 95% confidence interval, 0.9%-1.9%), skin and soft tissue (0.7%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5%-1.0%), and urinary tract (0.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-0.9%). Total dependence in activities of daily living, as indicated by low Barthel Index score of 0 to 20 (odds ratio=3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.2), and presence of a wound or stoma (odds ratio=2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.9) were significantly associated with presence of infection. This survey provides information about infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in the territory. Local data enable us to understand the burden of infections and formulate targeted measures for prevention.

Influence of Objective Three-Dimensional Measures and Movement Images on Surgeon Treatment Planning for Lip Revision Surgery

PubMed Central

Trotman, Carroll-Ann; Phillips, Ceib; Faraway, Julian J.; Hartman, Terry; van Aalst, John A.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine whether a systematic evaluation of facial soft tissues of patients with cleft lip and palate, using facial video images and objective three-dimensional measurements of movement, change surgeons’ treatment plans for lip revision surgery. Design Prospective longitudinal study. Setting The University of North Carolina School of Dentistry. Patients, Participants A group of patients with repaired cleft lip and palate (n = 21), a noncleft control group (n = 37), and surgeons experienced in cleft care. Interventions Lip revision. Main Outcome Measures (1) facial photographic images; (2) facial video images during animations; (3) objective three-dimensional measurements of upper lip movement based on z scores; and (4) objective dynamic and visual three-dimensional measurement of facial soft tissue movement. Results With the use of the video images plus objective three-dimensional measures, changes were made to the problem list of the surgical treatment plan for 86% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.97) and the surgical goals for 71% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.48 to 0.89). The surgeon group varied in the percentage of patients for whom the problem list was modified, ranging from 24% (95% confidence interval, 8% to 47%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients, and the percentage for whom the surgical goals were modified, ranging from 14% (94% confidence interval, 3% to 36%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients. Conclusions For all surgeons, the additional assessment components of the systematic valuation resulted in a change in clinical decision making for some patients. PMID:23855676

Lower hospital mortality and complications after pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Bratton, Susan L; Van Duker, Heather; Statler, Kimberly D; Pulsipher, Michael A; McArthur, Jennifer; Keenan, Heather T

2008-03-01

To assess protective and risk factors for mortality among pediatric patients during initial care after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and to evaluate changes in hospital mortality. Retrospective cohort using the 1997, 2000, and 2003 Kids Inpatient Database, a probabilistic sample of children hospitalized in the United States with a procedure code for HSCT. Hospitalized patients in the United States submitted to the database. Age, <19 yrs. None. Hospital mortality significantly decreased from 12% in 1997 to 6% in 2003. Source of stem cells changed with increased use of cord blood. Rates of sepsis, graft versus host disease, and mechanical ventilation significantly decreased. Compared with autologous HSCT, patients who received an allogenic HSCT without T-cell depletion were more likely to die (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.5, 3.9), while children who received cord blood HSCT were at the greatest risk of hospital death (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.6, 9.1). Mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio, 26.32; 95% confidence interval, 16.3-42.2), dialysis (adjusted odds ratio, 12.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.7-35.4), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-6.1) were all independently associated with death, while care in 2003 was associated with decreased risk (adjusted odds ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.7) of death. Hospital mortality after HSCT in children decreased over time as did complications including need for mechanical ventilation, graft versus host disease, and sepsis. Prevention of complications is essential as the need for invasive support continues to be associated with high mortality risk.

High prevalence of refractive errors in a rural population: 'Nooravaran Salamat' Mobile Eye Clinic experience.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Rezvan, Farhad; Ostadimoghaddam, Hadi; Abdollahi, Majid; Hashemi, Maryam; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi

2013-01-01

The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia and determinants were determined in a rural population of Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Using random cluster sampling, 13 of the 83 villages of Khaf County in the north east of Iran were selected. Data from 2001 people over the age of 15 years were analysed. Visual acuity measurement, non-cycloplegic refraction and eye examinations were done at the Mobile Eye Clinic. The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia based on spherical equivalent worse than -0.5 dioptre and +0.5 dioptre, respectively. The prevalence of myopia, hyperopia and anisometropia in the total study sample was 28% (95% confidence interval: 25.9-30.2), 19.2% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-21.1), and 11.5% (95% confidence interval: 10.0-13.1), respectively. In the over 40 population, the prevalence of myopia and hyperopia was 32.5% (95% confidence interval: 28.9-36.1) and 27.9% (95% confidence interval: 24.5-31.3), respectively. In the multiple regression model for this group, myopia strongly correlated with cataract (odds ratio = 1.98 and 95% confidence interval: 1.33-2.93), and hyperopia only correlated with age (P < 0.001). The prevalence of high myopia and high hyperopia was 1.5% and 4.6%. In the multiple regression model, anisometropia significantly correlated with age (odds ratio = 1.04) and cataract (odds ratio = 5.2) (P < 0.001). The prevalence of myopia and anisometropia was higher than that in previous studies in urban population of Iran, especially in the elderly. Cataract was the only variable that correlated with myopia and anisometropia. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The Association Between Maternal Age and Cerebral Palsy Risk Factors.

PubMed

Schneider, Rilla E; Ng, Pamela; Zhang, Xun; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael I; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-05-01

Advanced maternal age is associated with higher frequencies of antenatal and perinatal conditions, as well as a higher risk of cerebral palsy in offspring. We explore the association between maternal age and specific cerebral palsy risk factors. Data were extracted from the Canadian Cerebral Palsy Registry. Maternal age was categorized as ≥35 years of age and less than 20 years of age at the time of birth. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to calculate odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. The final sample consisted of 1391 children with cerebral palsy, with 19% of children having mothers aged 35 or older and 4% of children having mothers below the age of 20. Univariate analyses showed that mothers aged 35 or older were more likely to have gestational diabetes (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.8), to have a history of miscarriage (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.4), to have undergone fertility treatments (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.9), and to have delivered by Caesarean section (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 2.2). These findings were supported by multivariate analyses. Children with mothers below the age of 20 were more likely to have a congenital malformation (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.2), which is also supported by multivariate analysis. The risk factor profiles of children with cerebral palsy vary by maternal age. Future studies are warranted to further our understanding of the compound causal pathways leading to cerebral palsy and the observed greater prevalence of cerebral palsy with increasing maternal age. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

2012-01-01

Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

Teach a Confidence Interval for the Median in the First Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howington, Eric B.

2017-01-01

Few introductory statistics courses consider statistical inference for the median. This article argues in favour of adding a confidence interval for the median to the first statistics course. Several methods suitable for introductory statistics students are identified and briefly reviewed.

Incidence of Mastitis in the Neonatal Period in a Traditional Breastfeeding Society: Results of a Cohort Study.

PubMed

Khanal, Vishnu; Scott, Jane A; Lee, Andy H; Binns, Colin W

2015-12-01

Mastitis is a painful problem experienced by breastfeeding women, especially in the first few weeks postpartum. There have been limited studies of the incidence of mastitis from traditionally breastfeeding societies in South Asia. This study investigated the incidence, determinants, and management of mastitis in the first month postpartum, as well as its association with breastfeeding outcomes at 4 and 6 months postpartum, in western Nepal. Subjects were a subsample of 338 mothers participating in a larger prospective cohort study conducted in 2014 in western Nepal. Mothers were interviewed during the first month postpartum and again at 4 and 6 months to obtain information on breastfeeding practices. The association of mastitis and determinant variables was investigated using multivariable logistic regression, and the association with breastfeeding duration was examined using Kaplan-Meier estimation. The incidence of mastitis was 8.0% (95% confidence interval, 5.1%, 10.8%) in the first month postpartum. Prelacteal feeding (adjusted odds ratio = 2.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.03, 7.40) and cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.09, 11.42) were associated with a higher likelihood of mastitis. Kaplan-Meier estimation showed no significant difference in the duration of exclusive breastfeeding among the mothers who experienced an episode of mastitis and those who did not. Roughly one in 10 (8.0%) women experienced mastitis in the first month postpartum, and there appeared to be little effect of mastitis on breastfeeding outcomes. Traditional breastfeeding practices should be encouraged, and the management of mastitis should be included as a part of lactation promotion.

The Skin Cancer Objective Structured Clinical Examination (SCOSCE): A multi-institutional collaboration to develop and validate a clinical skills assessment for melanoma.

PubMed

Garg, Amit; Biello, Katie; Hoot, Joyce W; Reddy, Shalini B; Wilson, Lindsay; George, Paul; Robinson-Bostom, Leslie; Belazarian, Leah; Domingues, Erik; Powers, Jennifer; Jacob, Reza; Powers, Michael; Besen, Justin; Geller, Alan C

2015-12-01

Assessing medical students on core skills related to melanoma detection is challenging in the absence of a well-developed instrument. We sought to develop an objective structured clinical examination for the detection and evaluation of melanoma among medical students. This was a prospective cohort analysis of student and objective rater agreement on performance of clinical skills and assessment of differences in performance across 3 schools. Kappa coefficients indicated excellent agreement for 3 of 5 core skills including commenting on the presence of the moulage (k = 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.77-0.96), obtaining a history for the moulage (k = 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.74-0.94), and making a clinical impression (k = 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.92). There were no differences in performance across schools with respect to 3 of 5 core skills: commenting on the presence of the moulage (P = .15), initiating a history (P = .53), and managing the suspicious lesion (P value range .07-.17). Overall, 54.2% and 44.7% of students commented on the presence of the moulage and achieved maximum performance of core skills, respectively, with no difference in performance across schools. Limitations include overall sample size of students and schools. The Skin Cancer Objective Structured Clinical Examination represents a potentially important instrument to measure students' performance on the optimal step-by-step evaluation of a melanoma. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Indoor tanning in businesses and homes and risk of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer in 2 US case-control studies.

PubMed

Ferrucci, Leah M; Vogel, Rachel Isaksson; Cartmel, Brenda; Lazovich, DeAnn; Mayne, Susan T

2014-11-01

Indoor tanning increases skin cancer risk. Beyond early research describing melanoma and sun lamps, few recent reports describe where individuals indoor tan and whether skin cancer risk varies by location (business, home-based). We sought to assess where individuals tanned indoors and skin cancer risk by tanning device location. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted in 2 US case-control studies of melanoma (1161 cases, 1083 controls, ages 25-59 years) and early-onset basal cell carcinoma (375 cases, 382 controls, age<40 years) conducted between 2004 and 2010. Most indoor tanners (86.4%-95.1%), especially younger individuals, tanned exclusively in businesses. Persons who used indoor tanning exclusively in businesses were at increased risk of melanoma (odds ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.47-2.26) and basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio 1.69, 95% confidence interval 1.15-2.48) compared with non-users. Melanoma risk was also increased in the small number who reported tanning indoors only at home relative to non-users (odds ratio 4.14, 95% confidence interval 1.75-9.78); 67.6% used sun lamps. Self-reported tanning and potential recall bias are limitations. Business-only tanning, despite claims of "safe" tanning, was positively associated with a significant risk of melanoma and basal cell carcinoma. Home tanning was uncommon and mostly from sun lamps, which were rarely used by younger participants. Regardless of location, indoor tanning was associated with increased risk of skin cancer. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Glycopeptides versus β-lactams for the prevention of surgical site infections in cardiovascular and orthopedic surgery: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Saleh, Anas; Khanna, Ashish; Chagin, Kevin M; Klika, Alison K; Johnston, Douglas; Barsoum, Wael K

2015-01-01

To compare the efficacy of glycopeptides and β-lactams in preventing surgical site infections (SSIs) in cardiac, vascular, and orthopedic surgery. The cost-effectiveness of switching from β-lactams to glycopeptides for preoperative antibiotic prophylaxis has been controversial. β-Lactams are generally recommended in clean surgical procedures, but they are ineffective against resistant gram-positive bacteria. PubMed, International Pharmaceuticals Abstracts, Scopus, and Cochrane were searched for randomized clinical trials comparing glycopeptides and β-lactams for prophylaxis in adults undergoing cardiac, vascular, or orthopedic surgery. Abstracts and conference proceedings were included. Two independent reviewers performed study selection, data extraction, and assessment of risk of bias. Fourteen studies with a total of 8952 patients were analyzed. No difference was detected in overall SSIs between antibiotic types. However, compared with β-lactams, glycopeptides reduced the risk of resistant staphylococcal SSIs by 48% (relative risk, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.93; P = 0.03) and enterococcal SSIs by 64% (relative risk, 0.36; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.80; P = 0.01), but increased respiratory tract infections by 54% (relative risk, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.01; P ≤ 0.01). Subgroup analysis of cardiac procedures showed superiority of β-lactams in preventing superficial and deep chest SSIs, susceptible staphylococcal SSIs, and respiratory tract infections. Glycopeptides reduce the risk of resistant staphylococcal SSIs and enterococcal SSIs, but increase the risk of respiratory tract infections. Additional high-quality randomized clinical trials are needed as these results are limited by high risk of bias.

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of CT Features for Differentiating Complicated and Uncomplicated Appendicitis.

PubMed

Kim, Hae Young; Park, Ji Hoon; Lee, Yoon Jin; Lee, Sung Soo; Jeon, Jong-June; Lee, Kyoung Ho

2018-04-01

Purpose To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify computed tomographic (CT) features for differentiating complicated appendicitis in patients suspected of having appendicitis and to summarize their diagnostic accuracy. Materials and Methods Studies on diagnostic accuracy of CT features for differentiating complicated appendicitis (perforated or gangrenous appendicitis) in patients suspected of having appendicitis were searched in Ovid-MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library. Overlapping descriptors used in different studies to denote the same image finding were subsumed under a single CT feature. Pooled diagnostic accuracy of the CT features was calculated by using a bivariate random effects model. CT features with pooled diagnostic odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals not including 1 were considered as informative. Results Twenty-three studies were included, and 184 overlapping descriptors for various CT findings were subsumed under 14 features. Of these, 10 features were informative for complicated appendicitis. There was a general tendency for these features to show relatively high specificity but low sensitivity. Extraluminal appendicolith, abscess, appendiceal wall enhancement defect, extraluminal air, ileus, periappendiceal fluid collection, ascites, intraluminal air, and intraluminal appendicolith showed pooled specificity greater than 70% (range, 74%-100%), but sensitivity was limited (range, 14%-59%). Periappendiceal fat stranding was the only feature that showed high sensitivity (94%; 95% confidence interval: 86%, 98%) but low specificity (40%; 95% confidence interval, 23%, 60%). Conclusion Ten informative CT features for differentiating complicated appendicitis were identified in this study, nine of which showed high specificity, but low sensitivity. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Adult Henoch-Schönlein purpura: Clinical and histopathological predictors of systemic disease and profound renal disease.

PubMed

Cao, Ruoxi; Lau, Sandra; Tan, Virlynn; Tey, Hong Liang

2017-01-01

A major challenge in the management of adult Henoch-Schönlein purpura is the difficulty in assessing the risk of systemic involvement. There is currently a paucity of data in this area. This study sought to determine specific clinical and histopathological features associated with systemic involvement in adult Henoch-Schönlein purpura. We reviewed the records of 99 adult Henoch-Schönlein purpura patients who presented at the National Skin Centre, Singapore, between January 2008 and May 2015. Renal involvement was found in 56 (56.6%) patients, joint involvement in 21 (21.2%) and gastrointestinal involvement in 13 (13.1%). Age > 30 years was an independent predictor of renal involvement with an adjusted odds ratio of 2.97 (95% confidence interval, 1.08-8.16; P = 0.04). Risk factors for significant renal involvement necessitating nephrology referral were further evaluated: the odds were approximately 60% higher for every 10-year increase in age (95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.57; P = 0.04) and patients with cutaneous bullae and/or necrosis had an almost six times higher risk (95% confidence interval, 1.43-25.00; P = 0.01). This study was limited by its retrospective design. We also lacked long-term data to examine how clinical and histopathological characteristics correlated with long-term disease outcomes. Adult Henoch-Schönlein purpura patients older than 30 years have a threefold increased risk of renal involvement. The risk of profound renal disease necessitating nephrology referral rose significantly with age and the presence of cutaneous bullae and/or necrosis.

Relationship between major dietary patterns and metabolic syndrome among individuals with impaired glucose tolerance.

PubMed

Amini, Massoud; Esmaillzadeh, Ahmad; Shafaeizadeh, Shila; Behrooz, Jhila; Zare, Maryam

2010-10-01

Dietary habits have been associated with the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and limited data are available in this field for individuals with impaired glucose tolerance. This study focused on the association between major dietary patterns and prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance. This cross-sectional study was done in 425 subjects 35 to 55 y of age. Dietary data were collected using a food-frequency questionnaire. Blood pressure, waist circumference, glucose, triacylglycerols, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were measured and metabolic syndrome was defined based on Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. Five major dietary patterns were found: a western pattern (high in sweets, butter, soda, mayonnaise, sugar, cookies, tail of a lamb, hydrogenated fat, and eggs), a prudent pattern (high in fish, peas, honey, nuts, juice, dry fruits, vegetable oil, liver and organic meat, and coconuts and low in hydrogenated fat and non-leafy vegetables), a vegetarian pattern (high in potatoes, legumes, fruits rich in vitamin C, rice, green leafy vegetables, and fruits rich in vitamin A), a high-fat dairy pattern (high in high-fat yogurt and high-fat milk and low in low-fat yogurt, peas, and bread), and a chicken and plant pattern (high in chicken, fruits rich in vitamin A, green leafy vegetables, and mayonnaise and low in beef, liver, and organic meat). After adjusting for confounding variables, the western pattern was associated with greater odds of having increased triacylglycerol (odds ratio 1.76, 95% confidence interval 1.01-3.07) and blood pressure (odds ratio 2.62, 95% confidence interval 1.32-5.23). The prudent pattern was positively associated with a prevalence of low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (odds ratio 0.55, 95% confidence interval 0.31-0.96). The vegetarian dietary pattern was inversely associated with a risk of an abnormal fasting blood glucose level (odds ratio 2.26, 95% confidence interval 1.25-4.06). Major dietary patterns were significantly associated with the risk of metabolic syndrome. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of carbohydrate benefits associated with randomized controlled competition-based performance trials.

PubMed

Pöchmüller, Martin; Schwingshackl, Lukas; Colombani, Paolo C; Hoffmann, Georg

2016-01-01

Carbohydrate supplements are widely used by athletes as an ergogenic aid before and during sports events. The present systematic review and meta-analysis aimed at synthesizing all available data from randomized controlled trials performed under real-life conditions. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched systematically up to February 2015. Study groups were categorized according to test mode and type of performance measurement. Subgroup analyses were done with reference to exercise duration and range of carbohydrate concentration. Random effects and fixed effect meta-analyses were performed using the Software package by the Cochrane Collaboration Review Manager 5.3. Twenty-four randomized controlled trials met the objectives and were included in the present systematic review, 16 of which provided data for meta-analyses. Carbohydrate supplementations were associated with a significantly shorter exercise time in groups performing submaximal exercise followed by a time trial [mean difference -0.9 min (95 % confidence interval -1.7, -0.2), p = 0.02] as compared to controls. Subgroup analysis showed that improvements were specific for studies administering a concentration of carbohydrates between 6 and 8 % [mean difference -1.0 min (95 % confidence interval -1.9, -0.0), p = 0.04]. Concerning groups with submaximal exercise followed by a time trial measuring power accomplished within a fixed time or distance, mean power output was significantly higher following carbohydrate load (mean difference 20.2 W (95 % confidence interval 9.0, 31.5), p = 0.0004]. Likewise, mean power output was significantly increased following carbohydrate intervention in groups with time trial measuring power within a fixed time or distance (mean difference 8.1 W (95 % confidence interval 0.5, 15.7) p = 0.04]. Due to the limitations of this systematic review, results can only be applied to a subset of athletes (trained male cyclists). For those, we could observe a potential ergogenic benefit of carbohydrate supplementation especially in a concentration range between 6 and 8 % when exercising longer than 90 min.

Red and processed meat consumption and risk of incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Micha, Renata; Wallace, Sarah K; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2010-06-01

Meat consumption is inconsistently associated with development of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and diabetes mellitus, limiting quantitative recommendations for consumption levels. Effects of meat intake on these different outcomes, as well as of red versus processed meat, may also vary. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence for relationships of red (unprocessed), processed, and total meat consumption with incident CHD, stroke, and diabetes mellitus. We searched for any cohort study, case-control study, or randomized trial that assessed these exposures and outcomes in generally healthy adults. Of 1598 identified abstracts, 20 studies met inclusion criteria, including 17 prospective cohorts and 3 case-control studies. All data were abstracted independently in duplicate. Random-effects generalized least squares models for trend estimation were used to derive pooled dose-response estimates. The 20 studies included 1 218 380 individuals and 23 889 CHD, 2280 stroke, and 10 797 diabetes mellitus cases. Red meat intake was not associated with CHD (n=4 studies; relative risk per 100-g serving per day=1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.81 to 1.23; P for heterogeneity=0.36) or diabetes mellitus (n=5; relative risk=1.16; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 1.46; P=0.25). Conversely, processed meat intake was associated with 42% higher risk of CHD (n=5; relative risk per 50-g serving per day=1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.89; P=0.04) and 19% higher risk of diabetes mellitus (n=7; relative risk=1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 1.27; P<0.001). Associations were intermediate for total meat intake. Consumption of red and processed meat were not associated with stroke, but only 3 studies evaluated these relationships. Consumption of processed meats, but not red meats, is associated with higher incidence of CHD and diabetes mellitus. These results highlight the need for better understanding of potential mechanisms of effects and for particular focus on processed meats for dietary and policy recommendations.

Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation and acupuncture-like transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation for chronic low back pain.

PubMed

Gadsby, J G; Flowerdew, M W

2000-01-01

Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS), originally based on the gate-control theory of pain, is widely used for the treatment of chronic low back pain. Despite its wide use and theoretical rationale, there appears at first glance little scientific evidence to support its use. This Cochrane review examines the available evidence on TENS for the treatment of chronic back pain through an exhaustive search of the literature. Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) and acupuncture-like transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (ALTENS) for chronic low back pain management have experienced a tremendous growth over the past 25 years. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of TENS and ALTENS for reducing pain and improving function in patients with chronic back pain. We searched MEDLINE up to November 1997, EMBASE from 1985 to September 1995, Amed and Ciscom to January 1995, reference lists of the retrieved articles, proceedings of conferences and contacted investigators in the field. Randomised trials comparing TENS or ALTENS therapy to placebo in patients with chronic low back pain. Two reviewers independently assessed trial quality and extracted data on pain reduction, range of movement, functional and work status. Six trials were included. The trials included 288 participants with an average age range of 45 to 50 years and approximately equal numbers of women and men. The overall odds ratio for improvement in pain for each comparison was: TENS/ALTENS versus placebo 2.11 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 3. 38), ALTENS versus placebo 7.22 (95% confidence interval 2.60 to 20.01) and TENS versus placebo 1.52 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 2.58). The odds ration for improvement in range of motion on ALTENS versus placebo was 6.61 (95% confidence interval 2.36 to 18.55). There is evidence from the limited data available that TENS/ALTENS reduces pain and improves range of motion in chronic back pain patients, at least in the short term. A large trial of ALTENS and TENS is needed to confirm these findings.

Performance of an automated electronic acute lung injury screening system in intensive care unit patients.

PubMed

Koenig, Helen C; Finkel, Barbara B; Khalsa, Satjeet S; Lanken, Paul N; Prasad, Meeta; Urbani, Richard; Fuchs, Barry D

2011-01-01

Lung protective ventilation reduces mortality in patients with acute lung injury, but underrecognition of acute lung injury has limited its use. We recently validated an automated electronic acute lung injury surveillance system in patients with major trauma in a single intensive care unit. In this study, we assessed the system's performance as a prospective acute lung injury screening tool in a diverse population of intensive care unit patients. Patients were screened prospectively for acute lung injury over 21 wks by the automated system and by an experienced research coordinator who manually screened subjects for enrollment in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Clinical Trials Network (ARDSNet) trials. Performance of the automated system was assessed by comparing its results with the manual screening process. Discordant results were adjudicated blindly by two physician reviewers. In addition, a sensitivity analysis using a range of assumptions was conducted to better estimate the system's performance. The Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, an academic medical center and ARDSNet center (1994-2006). Intubated patients in medical and surgical intensive care units. None. Of 1270 patients screened, 84 were identified with acute lung injury (incidence of 6.6%). The automated screening system had a sensitivity of 97.6% (95% confidence interval, 96.8-98.4%) and a specificity of 97.6% (95% confidence interval, 96.8-98.4%). The manual screening algorithm had a sensitivity of 57.1% (95% confidence interval, 54.5-59.8%) and a specificity of 99.7% (95% confidence interval, 99.4-100%). Sensitivity analysis demonstrated a range for sensitivity of 75.0-97.6% of the automated system under varying assumptions. Under all assumptions, the automated system demonstrated higher sensitivity than and comparable specificity to the manual screening method. An automated electronic system identified patients with acute lung injury with high sensitivity and specificity in diverse intensive care units of a large academic medical center. Further studies are needed to evaluate the effect of automated prompts that such a system can initiate on the use of lung protective ventilation in patients with acute lung injury.

Asymptomatic peripheral artery disease can limit maximal exercise capacity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients regardless of airflow obstruction and lung hyperinflation.

PubMed

Crisafulli, Ernesto; Scelfo, Chiara; Tzani, Panagiota; Aiello, Marina; Bertorelli, Giuseppina; Chetta, Alfredo

2017-06-01

Background Silent/asymptomatic peripheral artery disease may occur in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but it is poorly investigated. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients the impact of asymptomatic/silent peripheral artery disease on maximal exercise capacity; the secondary aim was to search for predictors of peripheral artery disease. Methods We prospectively enrolled chronic obstructive pulmonary disease outpatients. Data on anthropometric characteristics, lung function, cardiopulmonary exercise test and ankle-brachial index were recorded. The cut-off of ankle-brachial index used to define patients with peripheral artery disease was ≤0.90. Results We studied 47 patients and found 24 patients (51%) who showed peripheral artery disease. As compared to patients without peripheral artery disease, patients with peripheral artery disease had lower values of peak oxygen uptake, peak workload, energy expenditure (metabolic equivalents) and heart rate recovery, but showed the same degree of airflow obstruction and static and dynamic hyperinflation. In a multivariate linear regression model performed to identify variables predicting metabolic equivalents, ankle-brachial index (β 2.59; 95% confidence interval 0.51-4.67; p = 0.016) was an independent variable. In the search for predictors of peripheral artery disease, heart rate recovery (odds ratio 8.80; 95% confidence interval 1.30-59.35; p = 0.026) increased the risk of peripheral artery disease, whereas metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 0.50; 95% confidence interval 0.26-0.94, p = 0.033) and inhaled corticosteroids+long-acting β 2 agonists (odds ratio 0.13; 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.83; p = 0.030) reduced this risk. Conclusions In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease outpatients, asymptomatic/silent peripheral artery disease affects the maximal exercise capacity regardless of airflow obstruction and lung hyperinflation. A delay of heart rate recovery increase the risk of peripheral artery disease, whereas high values of metabolic equivalents and the use of inhaled corticosteroids+long-acting β 2 agonists reduces this risk.

Low dose aspirin as adjuvant treatment for venous leg ulceration: pragmatic, randomised, double blind, placebo controlled trial (Aspirin4VLU).

PubMed

Jull, Andrew; Wadham, Angela; Bullen, Chris; Parag, Varsha; Kerse, Ngaire; Waters, Jill

2017-11-24

Objective  To determine the effect of low dose aspirin on ulcer healing in patients with venous leg ulcers. Design  Pragmatic, community based, parallel group, double blind, randomised controlled trial. Setting  Five community nursing centres in New Zealand. Participants  251 adults with venous leg ulcers who could safely be treated with aspirin or placebo: 125 were randomised to aspirin and 126 to placebo. Interventions  150 mg oral aspirin daily or matching placebo for up to 24 weeks treatment, with compression therapy as standard background treatment. Main outcome measures  The primary outcome was time to complete healing of the reference ulcer (largest ulcer if more than one ulcer was present). Secondary outcomes included proportion of participants healed, change in ulcer area, change in health related quality of life, and adverse events. Analysis was by intention to treat. Results  The median number of days to healing of the reference ulcer was 77 in the aspirin group and 69 in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 1.13, P=0.25). The number of participants healed at the endpoint was 88 (70%) in the aspirin group and 101 (80%) in the placebo group (risk difference -9.8%, 95% confidence interval -20.4% to 0.9%, P=0.07). Estimated change in ulcer area was 4.1 cm 2 in the aspirin group and 4.8 cm 2 in the placebo group (mean difference -0.7 cm 2 , 95% confidence interval -1.9 to 0.5 cm 2 , P=0.25). 40 adverse events occurred among 29 participants in the aspirin group and 37 adverse events among 27 participants in the placebo group (incidence rate ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.7 to 1.7, P=0.71). Conclusion  Our findings do not support the use of low dose aspirin as adjuvant treatment for venous leg ulcers. Trial registration  ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02158806. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation.

PubMed

Atchison, Christie M; Amankwah, Ernest; Wilhelm, Jean; Arlikar, Shilpa; Branchford, Brian R; Stock, Arabela; Streiff, Michael; Takemoto, Clifford; Ayala, Irmel; Everett, Allen; Stapleton, Gary; Jacobs, Marshall L; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Goldenberg, Neil A

2018-02-01

Paediatric hospital-associated venous thromboembolism is a leading quality and safety concern at children's hospitals. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation. We conducted a retrospective, case-control study of children admitted to the cardiovascular intensive care unit at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital (St. Petersburg, Florida, United States of America) from 2006 to 2013. Hospital-associated venous thromboembolism cases were identified based on ICD-9 discharge codes and validated using radiological record review. We randomly selected two contemporaneous cardiovascular intensive care unit controls without hospital-associated venous thromboembolism for each hospital-associated venous thromboembolism case, and limited the study population to patients who had undergone cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between putative risk factors and hospital-associated venous thromboembolism were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Among 2718 admissions to the cardiovascular intensive care unit during the study period, 65 met the criteria for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (occurrence rate, 2%). Restriction to cases and controls having undergone the procedures of interest yielded a final study population of 57 hospital-associated venous thromboembolism cases and 76 controls. In a multiple logistic regression model, major infection (odds ratio=5.77, 95% confidence interval=1.06-31.4), age ⩽1 year (odds ratio=6.75, 95% confidence interval=1.13-160), and central venous catheterisation (odds ratio=7.36, 95% confidence interval=1.13-47.8) were found to be statistically significant independent risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in these children. Patients with all three factors had a markedly increased post-test probability of having hospital-associated venous thromboembolism. Major infection, infancy, and central venous catheterisation are independent risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or cardiac catheter-based intervention, which, in combination, define a high-risk group for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism.

Awareness of Racial Disparities in Kidney Transplantation among Health Care Providers in Dialysis Facilities.

PubMed

Kim, Joyce J; Basu, Mohua; Plantinga, Laura; Pastan, Stephen O; Mohan, Sumit; Smith, Kayla; Melanson, Taylor; Escoffery, Cam; Patzer, Rachel E

2018-05-07

Despite the important role that health care providers at dialysis facilities have in reducing racial disparities in access to kidney transplantation in the United States, little is known about provider awareness of these disparities. We aimed to evaluate health care providers' awareness of racial disparities in kidney transplant waitlisting and identify factors associated with awareness. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a survey of providers from low-waitlisting dialysis facilities ( n =655) across all 18 ESRD networks administered in 2016 in the United States merged with 2014 US Renal Data System and 2014 US Census data. Awareness of national racial disparity in waitlisting was defined as responding "yes" to the question: "Nationally, do you think that African Americans currently have lower waitlisting rates than white patients on average?" The secondary outcome was providers' perceptions of racial difference in waitlisting at their own facilities. Among 655 providers surveyed, 19% were aware of the national racial disparity in waitlisting: 50% (57 of 113) of medical directors, 11% (35 of 327) of nurse managers, and 16% (35 of 215) of other providers. In analyses adjusted for provider and facility characteristics, nurse managers (versus medical directors; odds ratio, 7.33; 95% confidence interval, 3.35 to 16.0) and white providers (versus black providers; odds ratio, 2.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 5.02) were more likely to be unaware of a national racial disparity in waitlisting. Facilities in the South (versus the Northeast; odds ratio, 3.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 8.94) and facilities with a low percentage of blacks (versus a high percentage of blacks; odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 3.39) were more likely to be unaware. One quarter of facilities had >5% racial difference in waitlisting within their own facilities, but only 5% were aware of the disparity. Among a limited sample of dialysis facilities with low waitlisting, provider awareness of racial disparities in kidney transplant waitlisting was low, particularly among staff who may have more routine contact with patients. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Cerebrovascular Accidents During Mechanical Circulatory Support: New Predictors of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Strokes and Outcome.

PubMed

Izzy, Saef; Rubin, Daniel B; Ahmed, Firas S; Akbik, Feras; Renault, Simone; Sylvester, Katelyn W; Vaitkevicius, Henrikas; Smallwood, Jennifer A; Givertz, Michael M; Feske, Steven K

2018-05-01

Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) have emerged as an effective treatment for patients with advanced heart failure refractory to medical therapy. Post-LVAD strokes are an important cause of morbidity and reduced quality of life. Data on risks that distinguish between ischemic and hemorrhagic post-LVAD strokes are limited. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of post-LVAD ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes, their association with stroke risk factors, and their effect on mortality. Data are collected prospectively on all patients with LVADs implanted at Brigham and Women's Hospital. We added retrospectively collected clinical data for these analyses. From 2007 to 2016, 183 patients (median age, 57; 80% male) underwent implantation of HeartMate II LVAD as a bridge to transplant (52%), destination therapy (39%), or bridge to transplant candidacy (8%). A total of 48 strokes occurred in 39 patients (21%): 28 acute ischemic strokes in 24 patients (13%) and 20 intracerebral hemorrhages in 19 patients (10.3%). First events occurred at a median of 238 days from implantation (interquartile range, 93-515) among those who developed post-LVAD stroke. All but 9 patients (4.9%) were on warfarin (goal international normalized ratio, 2-3.5) and all received aspirin (81-325 mg). Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were more likely to have an ischemic stroke (odds ratio, 2.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-7.70). Dialysis-dependent patients showed a trend toward a higher risk of hemorrhagic stroke (odds ratio, 6.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-40.47). Hemorrhagic stroke was associated with higher mortality (odds ratio, 3.92; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-11.45) than ischemic stroke (odds ratio, 3.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-8.85). Stroke is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients on LVAD support. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease increases the risk of ischemic stroke, whereas dialysis may increase the risk of hemorrhagic stroke. Although any stroke increases mortality, post-LVAD hemorrhagic stroke was associated with higher mortality compared with ischemic stroke. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Prevalence of Hypertension in Children with Early-Stage ADPKD.

PubMed

Massella, Laura; Mekahli, Djalila; Paripović, Dušan; Prikhodina, Larisa; Godefroid, Nathalie; Niemirska, Anna; Ağbaş, Ayşe; Kalicka, Karolina; Jankauskiene, Augustina; Mizerska-Wasiak, Malgorzata; Afonso, Alberto Caldas; Salomon, Rémi; Deschênes, Georges; Ariceta, Gema; Özçakar, Z Birsin; Teixeira, Ana; Duzova, Ali; Harambat, Jérôme; Seeman, Tomáš; Hrčková, Gabriela; Lungu, Adrian Catalin; Papizh, Svetlana; Peco-Antic, Amira; De Rechter, Stéphanie; Giordano, Ugo; Kirchner, Marietta; Lutz, Teresa; Schaefer, Franz; Devuyst, Olivier; Wühl, Elke; Emma, Francesco

2018-04-19

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease is the most common inheritable kidney disease, frequently thought to become symptomatic in adulthood. However, patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease may develop signs or symptoms during childhood, in particular hypertension. Although ambulatory BP monitoring is the preferred method to diagnose hypertension in pediatrics, data in children with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease are limited. Our retrospective multicenter study was conducted to collect ambulatory BP monitoring recordings from patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease age <18 years old. Basic anthropometric parameters as well as data on kidney function, BP treatment, and kidney ultrasound were also collected. Data from 310 children with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease with a mean age of 11.5±4.1 years old were collected at 22 European centers. At the time when ambulatory BP monitoring was performed, 95% of children had normal kidney function. Reference data for ambulatory BP monitoring were available for 292 patients. The prevalence rates of children with hypertension and/or those who were treated with antihypertensive drugs were 31%, 42%, and 35% during daytime, nighttime, or the entire 24-hour cycle, respectively. In addition, 52% of participants lacked a physiologic nocturnal BP dipping, and 18% had isolated nocturnal hypertension. Logistic regression analysis showed a significant association between a categorical cyst score that was calculated on the basis of the number of cysts >1 cm per kidney and daytime hypertension (odds ratio, 1.70; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 2.4; P =0.002), nighttime hypertension (odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 1.63; P =0.02), or 24-hour hypertension (odds ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.81; P =0.01). Kidney length, expressed as SD score, was also significantly associated with nighttime hypertension (odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.06 to 1.42; P =0.10). These data indicate high prevalence of hypertension in children with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease starting at young ages. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Prevalence of Barriers and Facilitators to Enhancing Conservative Kidney Management for Older Adults in the Primary Care Setting.

PubMed

Tam-Tham, Helen; King-Shier, Kathryn M; Thomas, Chandra M; Quinn, Robert R; Fruetel, Karen; Davison, Sara N; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R

2016-11-07

Conservative management of adults with stage 5 CKD (eGFR<15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) is increasingly being provided in the primary care setting. We aimed to examine perceived barriers and facilitators for conservative management of older adults by primary care physicians. In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, population-based survey of all primary care physicians in Alberta, Canada. Eligible participants had experience caring for adults ages ≥75 years old with stage 5 CKD not planning on initiating dialysis. Questionnaire items were on the basis of a qualitative descriptive study informed by the Behavior Change Wheel and tested for face and content validity. Physicians were contacted via postal mail and/or fax on the basis of a modified Dillman method. Four hundred nine eligible primary care physicians completed the questionnaire (9.6% response rate). The majority of respondents were men (61.6%), were ages 40-60 years old (62.6%), and practiced in a large/medium population center (68.0%). The most common barrier to providing conservative care in the primary care setting was the inability to access support to maintain patients in the home setting (39.1% of respondents; 95% confidence interval, 34.6% to 43.6%). The second most common barrier was working with nonphysician providers with limited kidney-specific clinical expertise (32.3%; 95% confidence interval, 28.0% to 36.7%). Primary care physicians indicated that the two most common strategies that would enhance their ability to provide conservative management would be the ability to use the telephone to contact a nephrologist or clinical staff from the conservative care clinic (86.9%; 95% confidence interval, 83.7% to 90.0% and 85.6%; 95% confidence interval, 82.4% to 88.9%, respectively). We identified important areas to inform clinical programs to reduce barriers and enhance facilitators to improve primary care physicians' provision of conservative kidney care. In particular, primary care physicians require additional resources for maintaining patients in their home and telephone access to nephrologists and conservative care specialists. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Prevalence of Barriers and Facilitators to Enhancing Conservative Kidney Management for Older Adults in the Primary Care Setting

PubMed Central

Tam-Tham, Helen; King-Shier, Kathryn M.; Thomas, Chandra M.; Quinn, Robert R.; Fruetel, Karen; Davison, Sara N.

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Conservative management of adults with stage 5 CKD (eGFR<15 ml/min per 1.73 m2) is increasingly being provided in the primary care setting. We aimed to examine perceived barriers and facilitators for conservative management of older adults by primary care physicians. Design, setting, participants, & measurements In 2015, we conducted a cross–sectional, population–based survey of all primary care physicians in Alberta, Canada. Eligible participants had experience caring for adults ages ≥75 years old with stage 5 CKD not planning on initiating dialysis. Questionnaire items were on the basis of a qualitative descriptive study informed by the Behavior Change Wheel and tested for face and content validity. Physicians were contacted via postal mail and/or fax on the basis of a modified Dillman method. Results Four hundred nine eligible primary care physicians completed the questionnaire (9.6% response rate). The majority of respondents were men (61.6%), were ages 40–60 years old (62.6%), and practiced in a large/medium population center (68.0%). The most common barrier to providing conservative care in the primary care setting was the inability to access support to maintain patients in the home setting (39.1% of respondents; 95% confidence interval, 34.6% to 43.6%). The second most common barrier was working with nonphysician providers with limited kidney–specific clinical expertise (32.3%; 95% confidence interval, 28.0% to 36.7%). Primary care physicians indicated that the two most common strategies that would enhance their ability to provide conservative management would be the ability to use the telephone to contact a nephrologist or clinical staff from the conservative care clinic (86.9%; 95% confidence interval, 83.7% to 90.0% and 85.6%; 95% confidence interval, 82.4% to 88.9%, respectively). Conclusions We identified important areas to inform clinical programs to reduce barriers and enhance facilitators to improve primary care physicians’ provision of conservative kidney care. In particular, primary care physicians require additional resources for maintaining patients in their home and telephone access to nephrologists and conservative care specialists. PMID:27551007

Increased calcium supplementation is associated with morbidity and mortality in the infant postoperative cardiac patient.

PubMed

Dyke, Peter C; Yates, Andrew R; Cua, Clifford L; Hoffman, Timothy M; Hayes, John; Feltes, Timothy F; Springer, Michelle A; Taeed, Roozbeh

2007-05-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the association of calcium replacement therapy with morbidity and mortality in infants after cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass. Retrospective chart review. The cardiac intensive care unit at a tertiary care children's hospital. Infants undergoing cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass between October 2002 and August 2004. None. Total calcium replacement (mg/kg calcium chloride given) for the first 72 postoperative hours was measured. Morbidity and mortality data were collected. The total volume of blood products given during the first 72 hrs was recorded. Infants with confirmed chromosomal deletions at the 22q11 locus were noted. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were used to generate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, with p < .05 being significant. One hundred seventy-one infants met inclusion criteria. Age was 4 +/- 3 months and weight was 4.9 +/- 1.7 kg at surgery. Six infants had deletions of chromosome 22q11. Infants who weighed less required more calcium replacement (r = -.28, p < .001). Greater calcium replacement correlated with a longer intensive care unit length of stay (r = .27, p < .001) and a longer total hospital length of stay (r = .23, p = .002). Greater calcium replacement was significantly associated with morbidity (liver dysfunction [odds ratio, 3.9; confidence interval, 2.1-7.3; p < .001], central nervous system complication [odds ratio, 1.8; confidence interval, 1.1-3.0; p = .02], infection [odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 1.0-2.2; p < .04], extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [odds ratio, 5.0; confidence interval, 2.3-10.6; p < .001]) and mortality (odds ratio, 5.8; confidence interval, 5.8-5.9; p < .001). Greater calcium replacement was not associated with renal insufficiency (odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 0.9-2.3; p = .07). Infants with >1 sd above the mean of total calcium replacement received on average fewer blood products than the total study population. Greater calcium replacement is associated with increasing morbidity and mortality. Further investigation of the etiology and therapy of hypocalcemia in this population is warranted.

Reliability of clinical findings and magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae.

PubMed

Pihlajamäki, Harri K; Kuikka, Paavo-Ilari; Leppänen, Vesa-Veikko; Kiuru, Martti J; Mattila, Ville M

2010-04-01

This diagnostic study was performed to determine the correlation between anterior knee pain and chondromalacia patellae and to define the reliability of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae. Fifty-six young adults (median age, 19.5 years) with anterior knee pain had magnetic resonance imaging of the knee followed by arthroscopy. The patellar chondral lesions identified by magnetic resonance imaging were compared with the arthroscopic findings. Arthroscopy confirmed the presence of chondromalacia patellae in twenty-five (45%) of the fifty-six knees, a synovial plica in twenty-five knees, a meniscal tear in four knees, and a femorotibial chondral lesion in four knees; normal anatomy was seen in six knees. No association was found between the severity of the chondromalacia patellae seen at arthroscopy and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome (p = 0.83). The positive predictive value for the ability of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging to detect chondromalacia patellae was 75% (95% confidence interval, 53% to 89%), the negative predictive value was 72% (95% confidence interval, 56% to 84%), the sensitivity was 60% (95% confidence interval, 41% to 77%), the specificity was 84% (95% confidence interval, 67% to 93%), and the diagnostic accuracy was 73% (95% confidence interval, 60% to 83%). The sensitivity was 13% (95% confidence interval, 2% to 49%) for grade-I lesions and 83% (95% confidence interval, 59% to 94%) for grade-II, III, or IV lesions. Chondromalacia patellae cannot be diagnosed on the basis of symptoms or with current physical examination methods. The present study demonstrated no correlation between the severity of chondromalacia patellae and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome. Thus, symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome should not be used as an indication for knee arthroscopy. The sensitivity of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging was low for grade-I lesions but considerably higher for more severe (grade-II, III, or IV) lesions. Magnetic resonance imaging may be considered an accurate diagnostic tool for identification of more severe cases of chondromalacia patellae.

Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

PubMed Central

Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

Associations of Parent Health Behaviors and Parenting Practices with Sleep Duration in Overweight and Obese Children

PubMed Central

Rea, Corinna J.; Smith, Renata L.; Taveras, Elsie M.

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: To examine the extent to which parent health behaviors and parenting practices are associated with school-age children's sleep duration. Methods: We surveyed 790 parents of children, aged 6 to 12 y, who had a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 90th percentile and were participating in a randomized controlled obesity trial. The main exposures were parent sleep duration, screen time and physical activity, parental limits placed on child TV viewing time and TV content, and parents' confidence regarding their ability to help their child get enough sleep. The primary outcome was child sleep duration. We used linear regression models to examine associations of parent behaviors and parenting practices with child sleep duration. Results: On average, children slept 9.2 h per night, whereas parents slept 6.9 h. Parents reported having an average of 1.9 h of screen time per day and 0.6 h of physical activity. There were 57.3% of parents who reported feeling very/extremely confident that they could help their child get enough sleep. In adjusted multivariate analyses, child sleep duration was 0.09 h/day (95% confidence interval: 0.03, 0.15) longer for each 1-h increment in parent sleep duration. Additionally, children whose parents reported being very/extremely confident they could help their child get age-appropriate sleep duration slept 0.67 h/day longer (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.81) than those whose parents were not/somewhat confident. Conclusions: Educating parents about their own sleep health and enhancing parent confidence to help their children get enough sleep are potential areas of intervention to increase child sleep duration. Citation: Rea CJ, Smith RL, Taveras EM. Associations of parent health behaviors and parenting practices with sleep duration in overweight and obese children. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(11):1493–1498. PMID:27655464

Psychosocial and nonclinical factors predicting hospital utilization in patients of a chronic disease management program: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Tran, Mark W; Weiland, Tracey J; Phillips, Georgina A

2015-01-01

Psychosocial factors such as marital status (odds ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-8.69; P = .006) and nonclinical factors such as outpatient nonattendances (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.23; P = .013) and referrals made (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35; P = .003) predict hospital utilization for patients in a chronic disease management program. Along with optimizing patients' clinical condition by prescribed medical guidelines and supporting patient self-management, addressing psychosocial and nonclinical issues are important in attempting to avoid hospital utilization for people with chronic illnesses.

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population…

Persistent opioid use following Cesarean delivery: patterns and predictors among opioid naïve women

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T.; Franklin, Jessica M.; Bykov, Katsiaryna; Avorn, Jerry; Shrank, William H.; Brennan, Troyen A.; Landon, Joan E.; Rathmell, James P.; Huybrechts, Krista F.; Fischer, Michael A.; Choudhry, Niteesh K.

2016-01-01

Background The incidence of opioid-related death in women has increased five-fold over the past decade. For many women, their initial opioid exposure will occur in the setting of routine medical care. Approximately 1 in 3 deliveries in the U.S. is by Cesarean and opioids are commonly prescribed for post-surgical pain management. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the risk that opioid naïve women prescribed opioids after Cesarean delivery will subsequently become consistent prescription opioid users in the year following delivery, and to identify predictors for this behavior. Study Design We identified women in a database of commercial insurance beneficiaries who underwent Cesarean delivery and who were opioid-naïve in the year prior to delivery. To identify persistent users of opioids, we used trajectory models, which group together patients with similar patterns of medication filling during follow-up, based on patterns of opioid dispensing in the year following Cesarean delivery. We then constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for membership in the persistent user group. Results 285 of 80,127 (0.36%, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.40), opioid-naïve women became persistent opioid users (identified using trajectory models based on monthly patterns of opioid dispensing) following Cesarean delivery. Demographics and baseline comorbidity predicted such use with moderate discrimination (c statistic = 0.73). Significant predictors included a history of cocaine abuse (risk 7.41%; adjusted odds ratio 6.11, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 36.31) and other illicit substance abuse (2.36%; adjusted odds ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 6.91), tobacco use (1.45%; adjusted odds ratio 3.04, 95% confidence interval 2.03 to 4.55), back pain (0.69%; adjusted odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.29), migraines (0.91%; adjusted odds ratio 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 2.90), antidepressant use (1.34%; adjusted odds ratio 3.19, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 4.23) and benzodiazepine use (1.99%; adjusted odds ratio 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.64 to 5.26) in the year prior to Cesarean delivery. Conclusions A very small proportion of opioid-naïve women (approximately 1 in 300) become persistent prescription opioid users following Cesarean delivery. Pre-existing psychiatric comorbidity, certain pain conditions, and substance use/abuse conditions identifiable at the time of initial opioid prescribing were predictors of persistent use. PMID:26996986

Emergency department patient satisfaction survey in Imam Reza Hospital, Tabriz, Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Patient satisfaction is an important indicator of the quality of care and service delivery in the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to evaluate patient satisfaction with the Emergency Department of Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz, Iran. Methods This study was carried out for 1 week during all shifts. Trained researchers used the standard Press Ganey questionnaire. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire prior to discharge. The study questionnaire included 30 questions based on a Likert scale. Descriptive and analytical statistics were used throughout data analysis in a number of ways using SPSS version 13. Results Five hundred patients who attended our ED were included in this study. The highest satisfaction rates were observed in the terms of physicians' communication with patients (82.5%), security guards' courtesy (78.3%) and nurses' communication with patients (78%). The average waiting time for the first visit to a physician was 24 min 15 s. The overall satisfaction rate was dependent on the mean waiting time. The mean waiting time for a low rate of satisfaction was 47 min 11 s with a confidence interval of (19.31, 74.51), and for very good level of satisfaction it was 14 min 57 s with a (10.58, 18.57) confidence interval. Approximately 63% of the patients rated their general satisfaction with the emergency setting as good or very good. On the whole, the patient satisfaction rate at the lowest level was 7.7 with a confidence interval of (5.1, 10.4), and at the low level it was 5.8% with a confidence interval of (3.7, 7.9). The rate of satisfaction for the mediocre level was 23.3 with a confidence interval of (19.1, 27.5); for the high level of satisfaction it was 28.3 with a confidence interval of (22.9, 32.8), and for the very high level of satisfaction, this rate was 32.9% with a confidence interval of (28.4, 37.4). Conclusion The study findings indicated the need for evidence-based interventions in emergency care services in areas such as medical care, nursing care, courtesy of staff, physical comfort and waiting time. Efforts should focus on shortening waiting intervals and improving patients' perceptions about waiting in the ED, and also improving the overall cleanliness of the emergency room. PMID:21407998

Reference values for 34 frequently used laboratory tests in 80-year-old men and women.

PubMed

Helmersson-Karlqvist, Johanna; Ridefelt, Peter; Lind, Lars; Larsson, Anders

2016-10-01

Reference values are usually based on blood samples from healthy individuals in the age range 20-50 years. Most patients seeking health care are older than this reference population. Many reference intervals are age dependent and there is thus a need to have appropriate reference intervals also for elderly individuals. We analyzed a group of frequently used laboratory tests in an 80-year-old population (n=531, 266 females and 265 males). The 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles for these markers were calculated according to the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry guidelines on the statistical treatment of reference values. Reference values are reported for serum alanine transaminase (ALT), albumin, alkaline phosphatase, pancreatic amylase, apolipoprotein A1, apolipoprotein B, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1 ratio, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), AST/ALT ratio, bilirubin, calcium, calprotectin, cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, creatinine kinase (CK), creatinine, creatinine estimated GFR, C-reactive protein, cystatin C, cystatin C estimated GFR, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), iron, iron saturation, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), magnesium, phosphate, transferrin, triglycerides, urate, urea, zinc, hemoglobin, platelet count and white blood cell count. The upper reference limit for creatinine and urea was significantly increased while the lower limit for iron and albumin was decreased in this elderly population in comparison with the population in the Nordic Reference Interval Project (NORIP). Reference values calculated from the whole population and a subpopulation without cardiovascular disease showed strong concordance. Several of the reference interval limits were outside the 90% confidence interval of NORIP. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Confidence Intervals and Recurrence Intervals to Determine Precipitation Delivery Mechanisms Responsible for Mass Wasting Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulizio, T. P.; Bilbrey, C.; Stoyanoff, N.; Dixon, J. L.

2015-12-01

Mass wasting events are geologic hazards that impact human life and property across a variety of landscapes. These movements can be triggered by tectonic activity, anomalous precipitation events, or both; acting to decrease the factor of safety ratio on a hillslope to the point of failure. There exists an active hazard landscape in the West Boulder River drainage of Park Co., MT in which the mechanisms of slope failure are unknown. It is known that region has not seen significant tectonic activity within the last decade, leaving anomalous precipitation events as the likely trigger for slope failures in the landscape. Precipitation can be delivered to a landscape via rainfall or snow; it was the aim of this study to determine the precipitation delivery mechanism most likely responsible for movements in the West Boulder drainage following the Jungle Wildfire of 2006. Data was compiled from four SNOTEL sites in the surrounding area, spanning 33 years, focusing on, but not limited to; maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) values in a water year, median SWE values on the date which maximum SWE was recorded in a water year, the total precipitation accumulated in a water year, etc. Means were computed and 99% confidence intervals were constructed around these means. Recurrence intervals and exceedance probabilities were computed for maximum SWE values and total precipitation accumulated in a water year to determine water years with anomalous precipitation. It was determined that the water year 2010-2011 received an anomalously high amount of SWE, and snow melt in the spring of this water year likely triggered recent mass waste movements. This data is further supported by Google Earth imagery, showing movements between 2009 and 2011. Return intervals for the maximum SWE value in 2010-11 for the Placer Basin SNOTEL site was 34 years, while return intervals for the Box Canyon and Monument Peak SNOTEL sites were 17.5 and 17 years respectively. Max SWE values lie outside the upper bound of the 99% confidence interval at all SNOTEL sites while precipitation accumulated in the form of rain is within the expected average, indicating an anomalously snow year and average amounts of rainfall during the same water year. This information can be used to better predict circumstances leading to slope failures in northern latitude alpine landscapes.

Comparison of WBRT alone, SRS alone, and their combination in the treatment of one or more brain metastases: Review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Muhammad; Lin, Jie; Liao, Guixiang; Li, Rong; Wang, Baiyao; Xie, Guozhu; Zheng, Jieling; Yuan, Yawei

2017-07-01

Whole brain radiotherapy has been a standard treatment of brain metastases. Stereotactic radiosurgery provides more focal and aggressive radiation and normal tissue sparing but worse local and distant control. This meta-analysis was performed to assess and compare the effectiveness of whole brain radiotherapy alone, stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and their combination in the treatment of brain metastases based on randomized controlled trial studies. Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library) were searched to identify randomized controlled trial studies that compared treatment outcome of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiosurgery. This meta-analysis was performed using the Review Manager (RevMan) software (version 5.2) that is provided by the Cochrane Collaboration. The data used were hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated for time-to-event data extracted from survival curves and local tumor control rate curves. Odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for dichotomous data, while mean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for continuous data. Fixed-effects or random-effects models were adopted according to heterogeneity. Five studies (n = 763) were included in this meta-analysis meeting the inclusion criteria. All the included studies were randomized controlled trials. The sample size ranged from 27 to 331. In total 202 (26%) patients with whole brain radiotherapy alone, 196 (26%) patients receiving stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and 365 (48%) patients were in whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery group. No significant survival benefit was observed for any treatment approach; hazard ratio was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.43, p = 0.12) based on three randomized controlled trials for whole brain radiotherapy only compared to whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery and hazard ratio was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.29, p = 0.81) for stereotactic radiosurgery only compared to combined approach. Local control was best achieved when whole brain radiotherapy was combined with stereotactic radiosurgery. Hazard ratio 2.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.36-3.09, p = 0.0006) and hazard ratio 1.84 (95% confidence interval: 1.26-2.70, p = 0.002) were obtained from comparing whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only to whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery, respectively. No difference in adverse events for treatment difference; odds ratio 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-1.76, p = 0.48) and odds ratio 0.92 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-1.42, p = 71) for whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole brain radiotherapy only and whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus stereotactic radiosurgery only, respectively. Adding stereotactic radiosurgery to whole brain radiotherapy provides better local control as compared to whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only with no difference in radiation related toxicities.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes after bariatric surgery; a systematic review and meta-analysis: do the benefits outweigh the risks?

PubMed

Kwong, Wilson; Tomlinson, George; Feig, Denice S

2018-02-15

Obesity during pregnancy is associated with a number of adverse obstetric outcomes that include gestational diabetes mellitus, macrosomia, and preeclampsia. Increasing evidence shows that bariatric surgery may decrease the risk of these outcomes. Our aim was to evaluate the benefits and risks of bariatric surgery in obese women according to obstetric outcomes. We performed a systematic literature search using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, and PubMed from inception up to December 12, 2016. Studies were included if they evaluated patients who underwent bariatric surgery, reported subsequent pregnancy outcomes, and compared these outcomes with a control group. Two reviewers extracted study outcomes independently, and risk of bias was assessed with the use of the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Pooled odds ratios for each outcome were estimated with the Dersimonian and Laird random effects model. After a review of 2616 abstracts, 20 cohort studies and approximately 2.8 million subjects (8364 of whom had bariatric surgery) were included in the metaanalysis. In our primary analysis, patients who underwent bariatric surgery showed reduced rates of gestational diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.37, number needed to benefit, 5), large-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.59; number needed to benefit, 6), gestational hypertension (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.76; number needed to benefit, 11), all hypertensive disorders (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.53; number needed to benefit, 8), postpartum hemorrhage (odds ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-1.37; number needed to benefit, 21), and caesarean delivery rates (odds ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.67; number needed to benefit, 9); however, group of patients showed an increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 21), intrauterine growth restriction (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 66), and preterm deliveries (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.79; number needed to harm, 35) when compared with control subjects who were matched for presurgery body mass index. There were no differences in rates of preeclampsia, neonatal intensive care unit admissions, stillbirths, malformations, and neonatal death. Malabsorptive surgeries resulted in a greater increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (P=.0466) and a greater decrease in large-for-gestational-age infants (P=<.0001) compared with restrictive surgeries. There were no differences in outcomes when we used administrative databases vs clinical charts. Although bariatric surgery is associated with a reduction in the risk of several adverse obstetric outcomes, there is a potential for an increased risk of other important outcomes that should be considered when bariatric surgery is discussed with reproductive-age women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of referral letters on scheduling of hospital appointments: a randomised control trial.

PubMed

Jiwa, Moyez; Meng, Xingqiong; O'Shea, Carolyn; Magin, Parker; Dadich, Ann; Pillai, Vinita

2014-07-01

Communication is essential for triage, but intervention trials to improve it are scarce. Referral Writer (RW), a referral letter software program, enables documentation of clinical data and extracts relevant patient details from clinical software. To evaluate whether specialists are more confident about scheduling appointments when they receive more information in referral letters. Single-blind, parallel-groups, controlled design with a 1:1 randomisation. Australian GPs watched video vignettes virtually. GPs wrote referral letters after watching vignettes of patients with cancer symptoms. Letter content was scored against a benchmark. The proportions of referral letters triagable by a specialist with confidence, and in which the specialist was confident the patient had potentially life-limiting pathology were determined. Categorical outcomes were tested with χ(2) and continuous outcomes with t-tests. A random-effects logistic model assessed the influence of group randomisation (RW versus control), GP demographics, clinical specialty, and specialist referral assessor on specialist confidence in the information provided. The intervention (RW) group referred more patients and scored significantly higher on information relayed (mean difference 21.6 [95% confidence intervals {CI} = 20.1 to 23.2]). There was no difference in the proportion of letters for which specialists were confident they had sufficient information for appointment scheduling (RW 77.7% versus control 80.6%, P = 0.16). In the logistic model, limited agreement among specialists contributed substantially to the observed differences in appointment scheduling (P = 35% [95% CI 16% to 59%]). In isolation, referral letter templates are unlikely to improve the scheduling of specialist appointments, even when more information is relayed. © British Journal of General Practice 2014.

Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

2013-01-01

The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2006-01-01

Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

The microcomputer scientific software series 2: general linear model--regression.

Treesearch

Harold M. Rauscher

1983-01-01

The general linear model regression (GLMR) program provides the microcomputer user with a sophisticated regression analysis capability. The output provides a regression ANOVA table, estimators of the regression model coefficients, their confidence intervals, confidence intervals around the predicted Y-values, residuals for plotting, a check for multicollinearity, a...

Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zou, Guang Yong

2007-01-01

Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and quality of life.

PubMed

Jelovsek, J Eric; Barber, Matthew D

2006-05-01

Women who seek treatment for pelvic organ prolapse strive for an improvement in quality of life. Body image has been shown to be an important component of differences in quality of life. To date, there are no data on body image in patients with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Our objective was to compare body image and quality of life in women with advanced pelvic organ prolapse with normal controls. We used a case-control study design. Cases were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary urogynecology clinic with advanced pelvic organ prolapse (stage 3 or 4). Controls were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary care gynecology or women's health clinic for an annual visit with normal pelvic floor support (stage 0 or 1) and without urinary incontinence. All patients completed a valid and reliable body image scale and a generalized (Short Form Health Survey) and condition-specific (Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20) quality-of-life scale. Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to adjust for possible confounding variables. Forty-seven case and 51 control subjects were enrolled. After controlling for age, race, parity, previous hysterectomy, and medical comorbidities, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse were more likely to feel self-conscious (adjusted odds ratio 4.7; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 18, P = .02), less likely to feel physically attractive (adjusted odds ratio 11; 95% confidence interval 2.9 to 51, P < .001), less likely to feel feminine (adjusted odds ratio 4.0; 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 15, P = .03), and less likely to feel sexually attractive (adjusted odds ratio 4.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 17, P = .02) than normal controls. The groups were similar in their feeling of dissatisfaction with appearance when dressed, difficulty looking at themselves naked, avoiding people because of appearance, and overall dissatisfaction with their body. Subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse suffered significantly lower quality of life on the physical scale of the SF-12 (mean 42; 95% confidence interval 39 to 45 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 53, P < .009). However, no differences between groups were noted on the mental scale of the SF-12 (mean 51; 95% confidence interval 50 to 54 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 52, P = .56). Additionally, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse scored significantly worse on the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 than normal controls (mean summary score 104; 95% confidence interval 90 to 118 versus mean 29; 95% confidence interval 16 to 43, P < .0001), indicating a decrease in condition-specific quality of life. Worsening body image correlated with lower quality of life on both the physical and mental scales of the SF-12 as well as the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 in subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and overall quality of life. Body image may be a key determinant for quality of life in patients with advanced prolapse and may be an important outcome measure for treatment evaluation in clinical trials.

Exercise during pregnancy in normal-weight women and risk of preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Di Mascio, Daniele; Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Marhefka, Gregary D; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-11-01

Preterm birth is the major cause of perinatal mortality in the United States. In the past, pregnant women have been recommended to not exercise because of presumed risks of preterm birth. Physical activity has been theoretically related to preterm birth because it increases the release of catecholamines, especially norepinephrine, which might stimulate myometrial activity. Conversely, exercise may reduce the risk of preterm birth by other mechanisms such as decreased oxidative stress or improved placenta vascularization. Therefore, the safety of exercise regarding preterm birth and its effects on gestational age at delivery remain controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of exercise during pregnancy on the risk of preterm birth. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Sciences, Scopus, ClinicalTrial.gov, OVID, and Cochrane Library were searched from the inception of each database to April 2016. Selection criteria included only randomized clinical trials of pregnant women randomized before 23 weeks to an aerobic exercise regimen or not. Types of participants included women of normal weight with uncomplicated, singleton pregnancies without any obstetric contraindication to physical activity. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean difference with 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcome was the incidence of preterm birth <37 weeks. Of the 2059 women included in the meta-analysis, 1022 (49.6%) were randomized to the exercise group and 1037 (50.4%) to the control group. Aerobic exercise lasted about 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week. Women who were randomized to aerobic exercise had a similar incidence of preterm birth of <37 weeks (4.5% vs 4.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.50) and a similar mean gestational age at delivery (mean difference, 0.05 week, 95% confidence interval, -0.07 to 0.17) compared with controls. Women in the exercise group had a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery (73.6% vs 67.5%; relative risk, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.15) and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (17.9% vs 22%; relative risk, 0.82, 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.97) compared with controls. The incidence of operative vaginal delivery (12.9% vs 16.5%; relative risk, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.01) was similar in both groups. Women in the exercise group had a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (2.9% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.51, 95% confidence interval, 0.31-0.82) and a significantly lower incidence of hypertensive disorders (1.0% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.21, 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.45) compared with controls. No differences in low birthweight (5.2% vs 4.7%; relative risk, 1.11, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.73) and mean birthweight (mean difference, -10.46 g, 95% confidence interval, -47.10 to 26.21) between the exercise group and controls were found. Aerobic exercise for 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week during pregnancy can be safely performed by normal-weight women with singleton, uncomplicated gestations because this is not associated with an increased risk of preterm birth or with a reduction in mean gestational age at delivery. Exercise was associated with a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery, with a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders and therefore should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Changes in the Neighborhood Food Store Environment and Children's Body Mass Index at Peripuberty in the United States.

PubMed

Chen, Hsin-Jen; Wang, Youfa

2016-01-01

Little is known about the relationship between changes in food store environment and children's obesity risk in the United States. This study examines children's weight status associated with the changes in the quantity of food stores in their neighborhoods. A nationally representative cohort of schoolchildren in the United States was followed from fifth grade in 2004 to eighth grade in 2007 (n = 7,090). In 2004 and 2007, children's body mass index (BMI) was directly measured in schools. ZIP Code Business Patterns data from the Census Bureau in 2004 and 2007 characterized the numbers of food stores in every ZIP code area by type of store: supermarkets, limited-service restaurants, small-size grocery, and convenience stores. Baseline and change in the numbers of stores were the major exposures of interest. Girls living in neighborhoods with three or more supermarkets had a lower BMI 3 years later (by -.62 kg/m(2); 95% confidence interval = -1.05 to -.18) than did those living in neighborhoods without any supermarkets. Girls living in neighborhoods with many limited-service restaurants had a greater BMI 3 years later (by 1.02 kg/m(2); 95% confidence interval = .36-1.68) than did those living in neighborhoods with less than or equal to one limited-service restaurant. Exposure to a decreased quantity of small-size grocery stores in neighborhoods was associated with girls' lower BMI by eighth grade. The longitudinal association between neighborhood food environment and children's BMI differed by gender. For girls, supermarkets in neighborhoods seemed protective against obesity, whereas small-size grocery stores and limited-service restaurants in neighborhoods increased obesity risk. There was no significant longitudinal finding for boys. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Practice, clinical management, and financial arrangements of practicing generalists.

PubMed

Keating, Nancy L; Landon, Bruce E; Ayanian, John Z; Borbas, Catherine; Guadagnoli, Edward

2004-05-01

To describe the practice settings, financial arrangements, and management strategies experienced by generalist physicians and identify factors associated with reporting pressure to limit referrals, pressure to see more patients, and career dissatisfaction. Cross-sectional mail survey. Six hundred nineteen generalist physicians (62% response rate) caring for managed care patients in 3 Minnesota health plans during 1999. Twenty-six percent of physicians reported pressure to limit referrals. In adjusted analyses, female physicians and those who were board certified acted as gatekeepers for most of their patients, received incentives based on performance reports and quality profiles, and received direct income from capitation, and were more likely than others to report this pressure (all P <.05). Sixty-two percent reported pressure to see more patients. In adjusted analyses, this pressure was more frequent among physicians in practices owned by health systems, those using physician extenders, and among physicians paid by salary with performance adjustment or those receiving at least some capitation (all P <.05). One-quarter (24%) of physicians were dissatisfied with their career in medicine. In adjusted analyses, physicians reporting pressure to limit referrals (risk ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.19) and those reporting pressure to see more patients (risk ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.66) were more likely to be dissatisfied than other physicians. Pressures to limit referrals and to see more patients are common, particularly among physicians paid based on productivity or capitation, and they are associated with career dissatisfaction. Whether future changes in practice arrangements or compensation strategies can decrease such physician-reported pressures, and ultimately improve physician satisfaction, will be an important area for future study.

The holy grail of soil metal contamination site assessment: reducing risk and increasing confidence of decision making using infield portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouillon, M.; Taylor, M. P.; Dong, C.

2016-12-01

This research assesses the advantages of integrating field portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) technology for reducing the risk and increase confidence of decision making for metal-contaminated site assessments. Metal-contaminated sites are often highly heterogeneous and require a high sampling density to accurately characterize the distribution and concentration of contaminants. The current regulatory assessment approaches rely on a small number of samples processed using standard wet-chemistry methods. In New South Wales (NSW), Australia, the current notification trigger for characterizing metal-contaminated sites require the upper 95% confidence interval of the site mean to equal or exceed the relevant guidelines. The method's low `minimum' sampling requirements can misclassify sites due to the heterogeneous nature of soil contamination, leading to inaccurate decision making. To address this issue, we propose integrating infield pXRF analysis with the established sampling method to overcome sampling limitations. This approach increases the minimum sampling resolution and reduces the 95% CI of the site mean. Infield pXRF analysis at contamination hotspots enhances sample resolution efficiently and without the need to return to the site. In this study, the current and proposed pXRF site assessment methods are compared at five heterogeneous metal-contaminated sites by analysing the spatial distribution of contaminants, 95% confidence intervals of site means, and the sampling and analysis uncertainty associated with each method. Finally, an analysis of costs associated with both the current and proposed methods is presented to demonstrate the advantages of incorporating pXRF into metal-contaminated site assessments. The data shows that pXRF integrated site assessments allows for faster, cost-efficient, characterisation of metal-contaminated sites with greater confidence for decision making.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shaffer, Richard, E-mail: rickyshaffer@yahoo.co.u; Department of Clinical Oncology, Imperial College London National Health Service Trust, London; Pickles, Tom

Purpose: Prior studies have derived low values of alpha-beta ratio (a/ss) for prostate cancer of approximately 1-2 Gy. These studies used poorly matched groups, differing definitions of biochemical failure, and insufficient follow-up. Methods and Materials: National Comprehensive Cancer Network low- or low-intermediate risk prostate cancer patients, treated with external beam radiotherapy or permanent prostate brachytherapy, were matched for prostate-specific antigen, Gleason score, T-stage, percentage of positive cores, androgen deprivation therapy, and era, yielding 118 patient pairs. The Phoenix definition of biochemical failure was used. The best-fitting value for a/ss was found for up to 90-month follow-up using maximum likelihood analysis,more » and the 95% confidence interval using the profile likelihood method. Linear quadratic formalism was applied with the radiobiological parameters of relative biological effectiveness = 1.0, potential doubling time = 45 days, and repair half-time = 1 hour. Bootstrap analysis was performed to estimate uncertainties in outcomes, and hence in a/ss. Sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the values of the radiobiological parameters to extreme values. Results: The value of a/ss best fitting the outcomes data was >30 Gy, with lower 95% confidence limit of 5.2 Gy. This was confirmed on bootstrap analysis. Varying parameters to extreme values still yielded best-fit a/ss of >30 Gy, although the lower 95% confidence interval limit was reduced to 0.6 Gy. Conclusions: Using carefully matched groups, long follow-up, the Phoenix definition of biochemical failure, and well-established statistical methods, the best estimate of a/ss for low and low-tier intermediate-risk prostate cancer is likely to be higher than that of normal tissues, although a low value cannot be excluded.« less

A randomized controlled non-inferiority study comparing the antiemetic effect between intravenous granisetron and oral azasetron based on estimated 5-HT3 receptor occupancy.

PubMed

Endo, Junki; Iihara, Hirotoshi; Yamada, Maya; Yanase, Koumei; Kamiya, Fumihiko; Ito, Fumitaka; Funaguchi, Norihiko; Ohno, Yasushi; Minatoguchi, Shinya; Itoh, Yoshinori

2012-09-01

The acute antiemetic effect was compared between oral azasetron and intravenous granisetron based on the 5-hydroxytryptamine(3) (5-HT(3)) receptor occupancy theory. Receptor occupancy was estimated from reported data on plasma concentrations and affinity constants to 5-HT(3) receptor. A randomized non-inferiority study comparing acute antiemetic effects between oral azasetron and intravenous granisetron was performed in 105 patients receiving the first course of carboplatin-based chemotherapy for lung cancer. Azasetron exhibited the highest 5-HT(3) receptor occupancy among various first-generation 5-HT(3) antagonists. The complete response to oral azasetron was shown to be non-inferior to that of intravenous granisetron, in which the risk difference was 0.0004 (95% confidence interval: -0.0519-0.0527). The lower limit of the confidence intervals did not exceed the negative non-inferiority margin (-0.1). The complete response during the overall period was not different (68% versus 67%). Oral azasetron was found to be non-inferior to intravenous granisetron in the acute antiemetic effect against moderately emetogenic chemotherapy.

Special physical examination tests for superior labrum anterior posterior shoulder tears are clinically limited and invalid: a diagnostic systematic review.

PubMed

Calvert, Eric; Chambers, Gordon Keith; Regan, William; Hawkins, Robert H; Leith, Jordan M

2009-05-01

The diagnosis of a superior labrum anterior posterior (SLAP) lesion through physical examination has been widely reported in the literature. Most of these studies report high sensitivities and specificities, and claim to be accurate, valid, and reliable. The purpose of this study was to critically evaluate these studies to determine if there was sufficient evidence to support the use of the SLAP physical examination tests as valid and reliable diagnostic test procedures. Strict epidemiologic methodology was used to obtain and collate all relevant articles. Sackett's guidelines were applied to all articles. Confidence intervals and likelihood ratios were determined. Fifteen of 29 relevant studies met the criteria for inclusion. Only one article met all of Sackett's critical appraisal criteria. Confidence intervals for both the positive and negative likelihood ratios contained the value 1. The current literature being used as a resource for teaching in medical schools and continuing education lacks the validity necessary to be useful. There are no good physical examination tests that exist for effectively diagnosing a SLAP lesion.

Rethinking indicators of microbial drinking water quality for health studies in tropical developing countries: case study in northern coastal Ecuador.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Nelson, Kara L; Hubbard, Alan; Eisenberg, Joseph N S

2012-03-01

To address the problem of the health impacts of unsafe drinking water, methods are needed to assess microbiologic contamination in water. However, indicators of water quality have provided mixed results. We evaluate five assays (three for Escherichia coli and one each for enterococci and somatic coliphage) of microbial contamination in villages in rural Ecuador that rely mostly on untreated drinking water. Only membrane filtration for E. coli using mI agar detected a significant association with household diarrheal disease outcome (odds ratio = 1.29, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.65 in household containers and odds ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.37) in source samples. Our analysis and other published research points to the need for further consideration of study design factors, such as sample size and variability in measurements, when using indicator organisms, especially when relating water quality exposure to health outcomes. Although indicator organisms are used extensively in health studies, we argue that their use requires a full understanding of their purposes and limitations.

Rethinking Indicators of Microbial Drinking Water Quality for Health Studies in Tropical Developing Countries: Case Study in Northern Coastal Ecuador

PubMed Central

Levy, Karen; Nelson, Kara L.; Hubbard, Alan; Eisenberg, Joseph N. S.

2012-01-01

To address the problem of the health impacts of unsafe drinking water, methods are needed to assess microbiologic contamination in water. However, indicators of water quality have provided mixed results. We evaluate five assays (three for Escherichia coli and one each for enterococci and somatic coliphage) of microbial contamination in villages in rural Ecuador that rely mostly on untreated drinking water. Only membrane filtration for E. coli using mI agar detected a significant association with household diarrheal disease outcome (odds ratio = 1.29, 95% confidence interval = 1.02–1.65 in household containers and odds ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.02–1.37) in source samples. Our analysis and other published research points to the need for further consideration of study design factors, such as sample size and variability in measurements, when using indicator organisms, especially when relating water quality exposure to health outcomes. Although indicator organisms are used extensively in health studies, we argue that their use requires a full understanding of their purposes and limitations. PMID:22403326

Online physician review websites poorly correlate to a validated metric of patient satisfaction.

PubMed

Chen, Jennwood; Presson, Angela; Zhang, Chong; Ray, David; Finlayson, Samuel; Glasgow, Robert

2018-07-01

Physician review websites such as Vitals and Healthgrades are becoming an increasingly popular tool for patients to choose providers. We hypothesized that the scores of these surveys poorly represent the true value of patient satisfaction when compared to a validated survey instrument. Answers from Vitals and Healthgrades online surveys were compared to the Press Ganey Medical Practice Survey (PGMPS) for 200 faculty members at a university hospital for FY15. Weighted Pearson's correlation was used to compare Healthgrades and Vitals to PGMPS. While statistically significant, both Vitals and Healthgrades had very low correlations with the PGMPS with weighted coefficients of 0.18 (95% confidence interval: 0.02-0.34, P = 0.025) and 0.27 (95% confidence interval: 0.12-0.42, P < 0.001), respectively. Online physician rating websites such as Vitals and Healthgrades poorly correlate with the PGMPS, a validated measure of patient satisfaction. Patients should be aware of these limitations and, consequently, should have access to the most accurate measure of patient satisfaction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Grid Resolution Study over Operability Space for a Mach 1.7 Low Boom External Compression Inlet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Bernhard H.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a statistical methodology whereby the probability limits associated with CFD grid resolution of inlet flow analysis can be determined which provide quantitative information on the distribution of that error over the specified operability range. The objectives of this investigation is to quantify the effects of both random (accuracy) and systemic (biasing) errors associated with grid resolution in the analysis of the Lockheed Martin Company (LMCO) N+2 Low Boom external compression supersonic inlet. The study covers the entire operability space as defined previously by the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) High Speed Research (HSR) program goals. The probability limits in terms of a 95.0% confidence interval on the analysis data were evaluated for four ARP1420 inlet metrics, namely (1) total pressure recovery (PFAIP), (2) radial hub distortion (DPH/P), (3) ) radial tip distortion (DPT/P), and (4) ) circumferential distortion (DPC/P). In general, the resulting +/-0.95 delta Y interval was unacceptably large in comparison to the stated goals of the HSCT program. Therefore, the conclusion was reached that the "standard grid" size was insufficient for this type of analysis. However, in examining the statistical data, it was determined that the CFD analysis results at the outer fringes of the operability space were the determining factor in the measure of statistical uncertainty. Adequate grids are grids that are free of biasing (systemic) errors and exhibit low random (precision) errors in comparison to their operability goals. In order to be 100% certain that the operability goals have indeed been achieved for each of the inlet metrics, the Y+/-0.95 delta Y limit must fall inside the stated operability goals. For example, if the operability goal for DPC/P circumferential distortion is =0.06, then the forecast Y for DPC/P plus the 95% confidence interval on DPC/P, i.e. +/-0.95 delta Y, must all be less than or equal to 0.06.

A simple method for assessing occupational exposure via the one-way random effects model.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Mathew, Thomas; Peng, Jie

2016-11-01

A one-way random effects model is postulated for the log-transformed shift-long personal exposure measurements, where the random effect in the model represents an effect due to the worker. Simple closed-form confidence intervals are proposed for the relevant parameters of interest using the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER). The performance of the confidence bounds is evaluated and compared with those based on the generalized confidence interval approach. Comparison studies indicate that the proposed MOVER confidence bounds are better than the generalized confidence bounds for the overall mean exposure and an upper percentile of the exposure distribution. The proposed methods are illustrated using a few examples involving industrial hygiene data.

Red meat and processed meat intake and risk for cutaneous melanoma in white women and men: Two prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Yen, Hsi; Li, Wen-Qing; Dhana, Ashar; Li, Tricia; Qureshi, Abrar; Cho, Eunyoung

2018-04-24

Red and processed meat consumption has been associated with increased risk for several cancers, but the association with cutaneous melanoma risk has been inconclusive. To investigate the association between red and processed meat intake and melanoma risk. Dietary information was assessed by using food frequency questionnaires in 2 prospective cohorts: 75,263 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2010) and 48,523 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2010). Melanoma cases were confirmed by reviewing pathology records. Pooled multivariable hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated by using Cox proportional hazards models. A total of 679 female and 639 male melanoma cases were documented during follow-up. Red and processed meat intake was inversely associated with melanoma risk (P = .002 for trend); the pooled hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of the 2 cohorts were 1.00 (reference), 1.00 (0.87-1.14), 0.98 (0.86-1.13), 0.89 (0.77-1.02), and 0.81 (0.70-0.95) for increasing quintiles of intake. Findings might have limited generalizability, considering that the cohorts were limited to white health professionals. Red and processed meat intake was inversely associated with melanoma risk in these 2 cohorts. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

A bioequivalence study of gliclazide based on quantification by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray tandem mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Mendes, G D; Moreira, L D; Pereira, A dos S; Borges, A; Yui, F; Mendes, F D; de Nucci, G

2007-03-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate, in human volunteers, the performance of one gliclazide tablet formulation (gliclazide 80 mg tablet from EMS Indústria Farmacêutica Ltda.) against two reference gliclazide tablet formulations (Diamicron 80 mg tablet from Servier do Brazil Ltda. and Diamicron 80 mg tablet from Servier (Ireland) Industries Limited). The study had an open, randomized, three-period crossover design with a one-week washout interval between doses. The samples were obtained over a 48-h interval after each oral administration of gliclazide. The samples were extracted from plasma using diethylether : hexane (80 : 20, v/v) and the extracts were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/ MS). Chromatography was performed isocratically using a Jones Chromatography Genesis C8 120A 4u. The method had a chromatographic run-time of 2.5 min and a calibration curve of the range of 0.02- 10 microg x ml(-1) (r(2) > 0.9993). The limit of quantification was 0.02 microg x ml(-1). The geometric mean and 90% confidence intervals (CI) for the Gliclazide/Diamicron (Ireland) ratio were 588.68% (90% CI= 491.16, 705.58%) for AUClast, 423.50% (90% CI = 338.25, 530.23%) for AUCinf, and 1395.77% (90% CI= 1116.62, 1744.72%) for Cmax. The geometric mean and 90% confidence intervals (CI) for the Gliclazide/Diamicron (Brazil) ratio were 249.16% (90% CI = 207.96, 298.54%) for AUCiast, 249.16% (90% CI = 207.96 - 298.54%) for AUCinf, and 188.04% (90% CI - 151.72, 233.05%) for Cmax. Since the 90% CI for Cmax, AUClast and AUC(0-infinity) ratios were all outside the 125% interval proposed by the US Food and Drug Administration, we concluded that the gliclazide test formulation were not bioequivalent to either reference formulation. Interestingly, the pharmacokinetic parameters such as Cmax, AUClast of both reference formulations are compatible with neither the literature nor the profile of an immediate release formulation. In addition, both reference formulations were not bioequivalent in themselves, indicating significant differences in reference product formulation.

Statistical evaluation of time-dependent metabolite concentrations: estimation of post-mortem intervals based on in situ 1H-MRS of the brain.

PubMed

Scheurer, Eva; Ith, Michael; Dietrich, Daniel; Kreis, Roland; Hüsler, Jürg; Dirnhofer, Richard; Boesch, Chris

2005-05-01

Knowledge of the time interval from death (post-mortem interval, PMI) has an enormous legal, criminological and psychological impact. Aiming to find an objective method for the determination of PMIs in forensic medicine, 1H-MR spectroscopy (1H-MRS) was used in a sheep head model to follow changes in brain metabolite concentrations after death. Following the characterization of newly observed metabolites (Ith et al., Magn. Reson. Med. 2002; 5: 915-920), the full set of acquired spectra was analyzed statistically to provide a quantitative estimation of PMIs with their respective confidence limits. In a first step, analytical mathematical functions are proposed to describe the time courses of 10 metabolites in the decomposing brain up to 3 weeks post-mortem. Subsequently, the inverted functions are used to predict PMIs based on the measured metabolite concentrations. Individual PMIs calculated from five different metabolites are then pooled, being weighted by their inverse variances. The predicted PMIs from all individual examinations in the sheep model are compared with known true times. In addition, four human cases with forensically estimated PMIs are compared with predictions based on single in situ MRS measurements. Interpretation of the individual sheep examinations gave a good correlation up to 250 h post-mortem, demonstrating that the predicted PMIs are consistent with the data used to generate the model. Comparison of the estimated PMIs with the forensically determined PMIs in the four human cases shows an adequate correlation. Current PMI estimations based on forensic methods typically suffer from uncertainties in the order of days to weeks without mathematically defined confidence information. In turn, a single 1H-MRS measurement of brain tissue in situ results in PMIs with defined and favorable confidence intervals in the range of hours, thus offering a quantitative and objective method for the determination of PMIs. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Amy E.

2014-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.

2011-01-01

In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

Characterizing the Mathematics Anxiety Literature Using Confidence Intervals as a Literature Review Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Yetkiner, Z. Ebrar; Thompson, Bruce

2010-01-01

The authors report the contextualization of effect sizes within mathematics anxiety research, and more specifically within research using the Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) and the MARS for Adolescents (MARS-A). The effect sizes from 45 studies were characterized by graphing confidence intervals (CIs) across studies involving (a) adults…

Statistical inference for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Statistical inference requires expression of an estimate in probabilistic terms, usually in the form of a confidence interval. An approach to constructing confidence intervals for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation is illustrated. The approach is based on post-classification methods using two independent forest/non-forest classifications because...

Estimating Standardized Linear Contrasts of Means with Desired Precision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2009-01-01

L. Wilkinson and the Task Force on Statistical Inference (1999) recommended reporting confidence intervals for measures of effect sizes. If the sample size is too small, the confidence interval may be too wide to provide meaningful information. Recently, K. Kelley and J. R. Rausch (2006) used an iterative approach to computer-generate tables of…

UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMATIC MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THERMAL-OPTICAL ANALYSIS FOR PM BLACK CARBON USING RESPONSE SURFACES AND SURFACE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

EPA Science Inventory

Results from a NIST-EPA Interagency Agreement on Understanding Systematic Measurement Error in Thermal-Optical Analysis for PM Black Carbon Using Response Surfaces and Surface Confidence Intervals will be presented at the American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) 24th Annu...

The impact of effort-reward imbalance on quality of life among Japanese working men.

PubMed

Watanabe, Mayumi; Tanaka, Katsutoshi; Aratake, Yutaka; Kato, Noritada; Sakata, Yumi

2008-07-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQL) is an important measure of health outcome in working and healthy populations. Here, we investigated the impact of effort-reward imbalance (ERI), a representative work-stress model, on HRQL of Japanese working men. The study targeted 1,096 employees from a manufacturing plant in Japan. To assess HRQL and ERI, participants were surveyed using the Japanese version of the Short-Form 8 Health Survey (SF-8) and effort-reward imbalance model. Of the 1,096 employees, 1,057 provided valid responses to the questionnaire. For physical summary scores, the adjusted effort-reward imbalance odds ratios of middle vs. bottom and top vs. bottom tertiles were 0.24 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.70) and 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.28), respectively. For mental summary scores, ratios were 0.21 (95% confidence interval, 0.07-0.63) and 0.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.25), respectively. These findings demonstrate that effort-reward imbalance is independently associated with HRQL among Japanese employees.

Detecting reliable cognitive change in individual patients with the MATRICS Consensus Cognitive Battery.

PubMed

Gray, Bradley E; McMahon, Robert P; Green, Michael F; Seidman, Larry J; Mesholam-Gately, Raquelle I; Kern, Robert S; Nuechterlein, Keith H; Keefe, Richard S; Gold, James M

2014-10-01

Clinicians often need to evaluate the treatment response of an individual person and to know that observed change is true improvement or worsening beyond usual week-to-week changes. This paper gives clinicians tools to evaluate individual changes on the MATRICS Consensus Cognitive Battery (MCCB). We compare three different approaches: a descriptive analysis of MCCB test-retest performance with no intervention, a reliable change index (RCI) approach controlling for average practice effects, and a regression approach. Data were gathered as part of the MATRICS PASS study (Nuechterlein et al., 2008). A total of 159 people with schizophrenia completed the MCCB at baseline and 4weeks later. Data were analyzed using an RCI and a regression formula establishing confidence intervals. The RCI and regression approaches agree within one point when baseline values are close to the sample mean. However, the regression approach offers more accurate limits for expected change at the tails of the distribution of baseline scores. Although both approaches have their merits, the regression approach provides the most accurate measure of significant change across the full range of scores. As the RCI does not account for regression to the mean and has confidence limits that remain constant across baseline scores, the RCI approach effectively gives narrower confidence limits around an inaccurately predicted average change value. Further, despite the high test-retest reliability of the MCCB, a change in an individual's score must be relatively large to be confident that it is beyond normal month-to-month variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sex hormones and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 9-year follow up among elderly men in Finland.

PubMed

Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Räihä, Ismo; Niskanen, Leo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Irjala, Kerttu

2015-05-01

To analyze whether sex hormone levels predict the incidence of type2 diabetes among elderly Finnish men. This was a prospective population-based study, with a 9-year follow up period. The study population in the municipality of Lieto, Finland, consisted of elderly (age ≥64 years) men free of type 2 diabetes at baseline in 1998-1999 (n = 430). Body mass index and cardiovascular disease-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for type 2 diabetes predicted by testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, luteinizing hormone, and testosterone/luteinizing hormone were estimated. A total of 30 new cases of type 2 diabetes developed during the follow-up period. After adjustment, only higher levels of testosterone (hazard ratio for one-unit increase 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99, P = 0.020) and free testosterone (hazard ratio for 10-unit increase 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00, P = 0.044) were associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes during the follow up. These associations (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.00, P = 0.050 and 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.00, P = 0.035, respectively) persisted even after additional adjustment of sex hormone-binding globulin. Higher levels of testosterone and free testosterone independently predicted a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes in the elderly men. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

N-acetyltransferase 2 gene polymorphism as a biomarker for susceptibility to bladder cancer in Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Hosen, Md Bayejid; Islam, Jahidul; Salam, Md Abdus; Islam, Md Fakhrul; Hawlader, M Zakir Hossain; Kabir, Yearul

2015-03-01

To investigate the association between the three most common single nucleotide polymorphisms of the N-acetyltransferase 2 gene together with cigarette smoking and the risk of developing bladder cancer and its aggressiveness. A case-control study on 102 bladder cancer patients and 140 control subjects was conducted. The genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells and N-acetyltransferase 2 alleles were differentiated by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism methods. Bladder cancer risk was estimated as odds ratio and 95% confidence interval using binary logistic regression models adjusting for age and gender. Overall, N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were associated with bladder cancer risk (odds ratio=4.45; 95% confidence interval=2.26-8.77). The cigarette smokers with slow genotypes were found to have a sixfold increased risk to develop bladder cancer (odds ratio=6.05; 95% confidence interval=2.23-15.82). Patients with slow acetylating genotypes were more prone to develop high-grade (odds ratio=6.63; 95% confidence interval=1.15-38.13; P<0.05) and invasive (odds ratio=10.6; 95% confidence interval=1.00-111.5; P=0.05) tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype together with tobacco smoking increases bladder cancer risk. Patients with N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were more likely to develop a high-grade and invasive tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype is an important genetic determinant for bladder cancer in Bangladesh population. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Influence of gender role attitudes on smoking and drinking among girls from Jujuy, Argentina.

PubMed

Mejia, Raul; Kaplan, Celia P; Alderete, Ethel; Gregorich, Steven E; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

2013-09-01

Evaluate effect of gender role attitudes on tobacco and alcohol use among Argentinean girls. Cross-sectional survey of 10th grade students attending 27 randomly selected schools in Jujuy, Argentina. Questions about tobacco and alcohol use were adapted from global youth surveys. Five items with 5-point response options of agreement-disagreement assessed attitude towards egalitarian (higher score) gender roles. 2133 girls, aged 13-18 years, 71% Indigenous, 22% mixed Indigenous/European, and 7% European responded. Of these, 60% had ever smoked, 32% were current smokers, 58% ever drinkers, 27% drank in previous month, and 13% had ≥5 drinks on one occasion. Mean response to the gender role scale was 3.49 (95% Confidence Intervals = 3.41-3.57) out of 5 tending toward egalitarian attitudes. Logistic regression models using the gender role scale score as the main predictor and adjusting for demographic and social confounders showed that egalitarian gender role was associated with ever smoking (Odds Ratio = 1.25; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.09-1.44), ever drinking (Odds Ratio = 1.24; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.10-1.40), drinking in prior month (Odds Ratio = 1.21; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.07-1.37) and ≥5 drinks on one occasion (Odds Ratio = 1.15; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.00-1.33), but was not significant for current smoking. Girls in Jujuy who reported more egalitarian gender role attitudes had higher odds of smoking or drinking. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hostility and the risk of peptic ulcer in the GAZEL cohort.

PubMed

Lemogne, Cédric; Schuster, Jean-Pierre; Levenstein, Susan; Melchior, Maria; Nabi, Hermann; Ducimetière, Pierre; Limosin, Frédéric; Goldberg, Marcel; Zins, Marie; Consoli, Silla M

2015-02-01

Evidence for an association between hostility and peptic ulcer mainly relies on cross-sectional studies. Prospective studies are rare and have not used a validated measure of hostility. This prospective study aimed to examine the association between hostility and peptic ulcer in the large-scale French GAZEL cohort. In 1993, 14,674 participants completed the Buss and Durkee Hostility Inventory. Participants were annually followed-up from 1994 to 2011. Diagnosis of peptic ulcer was self-reported. The association between hostility scores and ulcer incidence was measured by hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals computed through Cox regression. Among 13,539 participants free of peptic ulcer history at baseline, 816 reported a peptic ulcer during a mean follow-up of 16.8 years. Adjusting for potential confounders, including smoking, occupational grade, and a proxy for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug exposure, ulcer incidence was positively associated with total hostility (HR per SD: 1.23, confidence interval: 1.14-1.31), behavioral hostility (HR per SD: 1.13, confidence interval: 1.05-1.21), cognitive hostility (HR per SD: 1.26, confidence interval: 1.18-1.35), and irritability (HR per SD: 1.20, confidence interval: 1.12-1.29). The risk of peptic ulcer increased from the lowest to the highest quartile for all hostility measures (p for linear trend < .05). Hostility might be associated with an increased risk of peptic ulcer. Should these results be replicated, further studies would be needed to explore the underlying mechanisms.

Association of serum bicarbonate with incident functional limitation in older adults.

PubMed

Yenchek, Robert; Ix, Joachim H; Rifkin, Dena E; Shlipak, Michael G; Sarnak, Mark J; Garcia, Melissa; Patel, Kushang V; Satterfield, Suzanne; Harris, Tamara B; Newman, Anne B; Fried, Linda F

2014-12-05

Cross-sectional studies have found that low serum bicarbonate is associated with slower gait speed. Whether bicarbonate levels independently predict the development of functional limitation has not been previously studied. Whether bicarbonate was associated with incident persistent lower extremity functional limitation and whether the relationship differed in individuals with and without CKD were assessed in participants in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study, a prospective study of well functioning older individuals Functional limitation was defined as difficulty in walking 0.25 miles or up 10 stairs on two consecutive reports 6 months apart in the same activity (stairs or walking). Kidney function was measured using eGFR by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine equation, and CKD was defined as an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). Serum bicarbonate was measured using arterialized venous blood gas. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to assess the association of bicarbonate (<23, 23-25.9, and ≥26 mEq/L) with functional limitation. Mixed model linear regression was performed to assess the association of serum bicarbonate on change in gait speed over time. Of 1544 participants, 412 participants developed incident persistent functional limitation events over a median 4.4 years (interquartile range, 3.1 to 4.5). Compared with ≥26 mEq/L, lower serum bicarbonate was associated with functional limitation. After adjustment for demographics, CKD, diabetes, body mass index, smoking, diuretic use, and gait speed, lower serum bicarbonate was significantly associated with functional limitation (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.68 and hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 2.22 for bicarbonate levels from 23 to 25.9 and <23, respectively). There was not a significant interaction of bicarbonate with CKD. In addition, bicarbonate was not significantly associated with change in gait speed. Lower serum bicarbonate was associated with greater risk of incident, persistent functional limitation. This association was present in individuals with and without CKD. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Association of Serum Bicarbonate with Incident Functional Limitation in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Yenchek, Robert; Ix, Joachim H.; Rifkin, Dena E.; Shlipak, Michael G.; Sarnak, Mark J.; Garcia, Melissa; Patel, Kushang V.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Harris, Tamara B.; Newman, Anne B.

2014-01-01

Background and objectives Cross-sectional studies have found that low serum bicarbonate is associated with slower gait speed. Whether bicarbonate levels independently predict the development of functional limitation has not been previously studied. Whether bicarbonate was associated with incident persistent lower extremity functional limitation and whether the relationship differed in individuals with and without CKD were assessed in participants in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study, a prospective study of well functioning older individuals Design, setting, participants, & measurements Functional limitation was defined as difficulty in walking 0.25 miles or up 10 stairs on two consecutive reports 6 months apart in the same activity (stairs or walking). Kidney function was measured using eGFR by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine equation, and CKD was defined as an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Serum bicarbonate was measured using arterialized venous blood gas. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to assess the association of bicarbonate (<23, 23–25.9, and ≥26 mEq/L) with functional limitation. Mixed model linear regression was performed to assess the association of serum bicarbonate on change in gait speed over time. Results Of 1544 participants, 412 participants developed incident persistent functional limitation events over a median 4.4 years (interquartile range, 3.1 to 4.5). Compared with ≥26 mEq/L, lower serum bicarbonate was associated with functional limitation. After adjustment for demographics, CKD, diabetes, body mass index, smoking, diuretic use, and gait speed, lower serum bicarbonate was significantly associated with functional limitation (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.68 and hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 2.22 for bicarbonate levels from 23 to 25.9 and <23, respectively). There was not a significant interaction of bicarbonate with CKD. In addition, bicarbonate was not significantly associated with change in gait speed. Conclusions Lower serum bicarbonate was associated with greater risk of incident, persistent functional limitation. This association was present in individuals with and without CKD. PMID:25381341

Associations between environmental factors and hospital admissions for sickle cell disease

PubMed Central

Piel, Frédéric B.; Tewari, Sanjay; Brousse, Valentine; Analitis, Antonis; Font, Anna; Menzel, Stephan; Chakravorty, Subarna; Thein, Swee Lay; Inusa, Baba; Telfer, Paul; de Montalembert, Mariane; Fuller, Gary W.; Katsouyanni, Klea; Rees, David C.

2017-01-01

Sickle cell disease is an increasing global health burden. This inherited disease is characterized by a remarkable phenotypic heterogeneity, which can only partly be explained by genetic factors. Environmental factors are likely to play an important role but studies of their impact on disease severity are limited and their results are often inconsistent. This study investigated associations between a range of environmental factors and hospital admissions of young patients with sickle cell disease in London and in Paris between 2008 and 2012. Specific analyses were conducted for subgroups of patients with different genotypes and for the main reasons for admissions. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models were used to assess the magnitude of the associations and to calculate relative risks. Some environmental factors significantly influence the numbers of hospital admissions of children with sickle cell disease, although the associations identified are complicated. Our study suggests that meteorological factors are more likely to be associated with hospital admissions for sickle cell disease than air pollutants. It confirms previous reports of risks associated with wind speed (risk ratio: 1.06/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 1.00–1.12) and also with rainfall (1.06/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 1.01–1.12). Maximum atmospheric pressure was found to be a protective factor (0.93/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 0.88–0.99). Weak or no associations were found with temperature. Divergent associations were identified for different genotypes or reasons for admissions, which could partly explain the lack of consistency in earlier studies. Advice to patients with sickle cell disease usually includes avoiding a range of environmental conditions that are believed to trigger acute complications, including extreme temperatures and high altitudes. Scientific evidence to support such advice is limited and sometimes confusing. This study shows that environmental factors do explain some of the variations in rates of admission to hospital with acute symptoms in sickle cell disease, but the associations are complex, and likely to be specific to different environments and the individual’s exposure to them. Furthermore, this study highlights the need for prospective studies with large numbers of patients and standardized protocols across Europe. PMID:27909222

Associations between environmental factors and hospital admissions for sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Piel, Frédéric B; Tewari, Sanjay; Brousse, Valentine; Analitis, Antonis; Font, Anna; Menzel, Stephan; Chakravorty, Subarna; Thein, Swee Lay; Inusa, Baba; Telfer, Paul; de Montalembert, Mariane; Fuller, Gary W; Katsouyanni, Klea; Rees, David C

2017-04-01

Sickle cell disease is an increasing global health burden. This inherited disease is characterized by a remarkable phenotypic heterogeneity, which can only partly be explained by genetic factors. Environmental factors are likely to play an important role but studies of their impact on disease severity are limited and their results are often inconsistent. This study investigated associations between a range of environmental factors and hospital admissions of young patients with sickle cell disease in London and in Paris between 2008 and 2012. Specific analyses were conducted for subgroups of patients with different genotypes and for the main reasons for admissions. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models were used to assess the magnitude of the associations and to calculate relative risks. Some environmental factors significantly influence the numbers of hospital admissions of children with sickle cell disease, although the associations identified are complicated. Our study suggests that meteorological factors are more likely to be associated with hospital admissions for sickle cell disease than air pollutants. It confirms previous reports of risks associated with wind speed (risk ratio: 1.06/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 1.00-1.12) and also with rainfall (1.06/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.12). Maximum atmospheric pressure was found to be a protective factor (0.93/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 0.88-0.99). Weak or no associations were found with temperature. Divergent associations were identified for different genotypes or reasons for admissions, which could partly explain the lack of consistency in earlier studies. Advice to patients with sickle cell disease usually includes avoiding a range of environmental conditions that are believed to trigger acute complications, including extreme temperatures and high altitudes. Scientific evidence to support such advice is limited and sometimes confusing. This study shows that environmental factors do explain some of the variations in rates of admission to hospital with acute symptoms in sickle cell disease, but the associations are complex, and likely to be specific to different environments and the individual's exposure to them. Furthermore, this study highlights the need for prospective studies with large numbers of patients and standardized protocols across Europe. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

Validity and test–retest reliability of a novel simple back extensor muscle strength test

PubMed Central

Harding, Amy T; Weeks, Benjamin Kurt; Horan, Sean A; Little, Andrew; Watson, Steven L; Beck, Belinda Ruth

2017-01-01

Objectives: To develop and determine convergent validity and reliability of a simple and inexpensive clinical test to quantify back extensor muscle strength. Methods: Two testing sessions were conducted, 7 days apart. Each session involved three trials of standing maximal isometric back extensor muscle strength using both the novel test and isokinetic dynamometry. Lumbar spine bone mineral density was examined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Validation was examined with Pearson correlations (r). Test–retest reliability was examined with intraclass correlation coefficients and limits of agreement. Pearson correlations and intraclass correlation coefficients are presented with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Linear regression was used to examine the ability of peak back extensor muscle strength to predict indices of lumbar spine bone mineral density and strength. Results: A total of 52 healthy adults (26 men, 26 women) aged 46.4 ± 20.4 years were recruited from the community. A strong positive relationship was observed between peak back extensor strength from hand-held and isokinetic dynamometry (r = 0.824, p < 0.001). For the novel back extensor strength test, short- and long-term reliability was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.983 (95% confidence interval, 0.971–0.990), p < 0.001 and intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.901 (95% confidence interval, 0.833–0.943), p < 0.001, respectively). Limits of agreement for short-term repeated back extensor strength measures with the novel back extensor strength protocol were −6.63 to 7.70 kg, with a mean bias of +0.71 kg. Back extensor strength predicted 11% of variance in lumbar spine bone mineral density (p < 0.05) and 9% of lumbar spine index of bone structural strength (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Our novel hand-held dynamometer method to determine back extensor muscle strength is quick, relatively inexpensive, and reliable; demonstrates initial convergent validity in a healthy population; and is associated with bone mass at a clinically important site. PMID:28255442

Preprocedural High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease Undergoing Elective Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

PubMed

Zanchin, Thomas; Räber, Lorenz; Koskinas, Konstantinos C; Piccolo, Raffaele; Jüni, Peter; Pilgrim, Thomas; Stortecky, Stefan; Khattab, Ahmed A; Wenaweser, Peter; Bloechlinger, Stefan; Moschovitis, Aris; Frenk, Andre; Moro, Christina; Meier, Bernhard; Fiedler, Georg M; Heg, Dik; Windecker, Stephan

2016-06-01

Cardiac troponin detected by new-generation, highly sensitive assays predicts clinical outcomes among patients with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD) treated medically. The prognostic value of baseline high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) elevation in SCAD patients undergoing elective percutaneous coronary interventions is not well established. This study assessed the association of preprocedural levels of hs-cTnT with 1-year clinical outcomes among SCAD patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Between 2010 and 2014, 6974 consecutive patients were prospectively enrolled in the Bern Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Registry. Among patients with SCAD (n=2029), 527 (26%) had elevated preprocedural hs-cTnT above the upper reference limit of 14 ng/L. The primary end point, mortality within 1 year, occurred in 20 patients (1.4%) with normal hs-cTnT versus 39 patients (7.7%) with elevated baseline hs-cTnT (P<0.001). Patients with elevated hs-cTnT had increased risks of all-cause (hazard ratio 5.73; 95% confidence intervals 3.34-9.83; P<0.001) and cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 4.68; 95% confidence interval 2.12-10.31; P<0.001). Preprocedural hs-TnT elevation remained an independent predictor of 1-year mortality after adjustment for relevant risk factors, including age, sex, and renal failure (adjusted hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval 1.10-3.92; P=0.024). A graded mortality risk was observed across higher tertiles of elevated preprocedural hs-cTnT, but not among patients with hs-cTnT below the upper reference limit. Preprocedural elevation of hs-cTnT is observed in one fourth of SCAD patients undergoing elective percutaneous coronary intervention. Increased levels of preprocedural hs-cTnT are proportionally related to the risk of death and emerged as independent predictors of all-cause mortality within 1 year. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02241291. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Albumin treatment regimen for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome: a dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Salerno, Francesco; Navickis, Roberta J; Wilkes, Mahlon M

2015-11-25

Recommended treatment for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome consists of albumin and vasoconstrictor. The optimal albumin dose remains poorly characterized. This meta-analysis aimed to determine the impact of albumin dose on treatment outcomes. Clinical studies of type 1 hepatorenal syndrome treatment with albumin and vasoconstrictor were sought. Search terms included: hepatorenal syndrome; albumin; vasoconstrictor; terlipressin; midodrine; octreotide; noradrenaline; and norepinephrine. A meta-analysis was performed of hepatorenal syndrome reversal and survival in relation to albumin dose. Nineteen clinical studies with 574 total patients were included, comprising 8 randomized controlled trials, 8 prospective studies and 3 retrospective studies. The pooled percentage of patients achieving hepatorenal syndrome reversal was 49.5% (95% confidence interval, 40.0-59.1%). Increments of 100 g in cumulative albumin dose were accompanied by significantly increased survival (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.31; p = 0.023). A non-significant increase of similar magnitude in hepatorenal syndrome reversal was also observed (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.37; p = 0.10). Expected survival rates at 30 days among patients receiving cumulative albumin doses of 200, 400 and 600 g were 43.2% (95% confidence interval, 36.4-51.3%), 51.4% (95% confidence interval, 46.3-57.1%) and 59.0% (95% confidence interval, 51.9-67.2), respectively. Neither survival nor hepatorenal syndrome reversal was significantly affected by vasoconstrictor dose or type, treatment duration, age, baseline serum creatinine, bilirubin or albumin, baseline mean arterial pressure, or study design, size or time period. This meta-analysis suggests a dose-response relationship between infused albumin and survival in patients with type 1 hepatorenal syndrome. The meta-analysis provides the best current evidence on the potential role of albumin dose selection in improving outcomes of treatment for type 1 HRS and furnishes guidance for the design of future dose-ranging studies.

Prevalence of orofacial clefts and risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in newborns at a university hospital from West Mexico.

PubMed

Corona-Rivera, Jorge Román; Bobadilla-Morales, Lucina; Corona-Rivera, Alfredo; Peña-Padilla, Christian; Olvera-Molina, Sandra; Orozco-Martín, Miriam A; García-Cruz, Diana; Ríos-Flores, Izabel M; Gómez-Rodríguez, Brian Gabriel; Rivas-Soto, Gemma; Pérez-Molina, J Jesús

2018-02-19

We determined the overall prevalence of typical orofacial clefts and the potential risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in a university hospital from West México. For the prevalence, 227 liveborn infants with typical orofacial clefts were included from a total of 81,193 births occurred during the period 2009-2016 at the "Dr. Juan I. Menchaca" Civil Hospital of Guadalajara (Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico). To evaluate potential risks, a case-control study was conducted among 420 newborns, including only those 105 patients with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (cases), and 315 infants without birth defects (controls). Data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis expressed as adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals . The overall prevalence for typical orofacial clefts was 28 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval: 24.3-31.6), or 1 per 358 live births. The mean values for the prepregnancy weight, antepartum weight, and pre-pregnancy body mass index were statistically higher among the mothers of cases. Infants with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate had a significantly higher risk for previous history of any type of congenital anomaly (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7; 95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.1), history of a relative with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (adjusted odds ratio: 19.6; 95% confidence interval: 8.2-47.1), and first-trimester exposures to progestogens (adjusted odds ratio: 6.8; 95% CI 1.8-25.3), hyperthermia (adjusted odds ratio: 3.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-10.6), and common cold (adjusted odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-11.9). These risks could have contributed to explain the high prevalence of orofacial clefts in our region of Mexico, emphasizing that except for history of relatives with cleft lip with or without cleft palate, most are susceptible of modification. © 2018 Japanese Teratology Society.

Fixed ratio combinations of glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists with basal insulin: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liakopoulou, Paraskevi; Liakos, Aris; Vasilakou, Despoina; Athanasiadou, Eleni; Bekiari, Eleni; Kazakos, Kyriakos; Tsapas, Apostolos

2017-06-01

Basal insulin controls primarily fasting plasma glucose but causes hypoglycaemia and weight gain, whilst glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists induce weight loss without increasing risk for hypoglycaemia. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials to investigate the efficacy and safety of fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library as well as conference abstracts up to December 2016. We assessed change in haemoglobin A 1c , body weight, and incidence of hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal adverse events. We included eight studies with 5732 participants in the systematic review. Switch from basal insulin to fixed ratio combinations with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist was associated with 0.72% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c [95% confidence interval -1.03 to -0.41; I 2  = 93%] and 2.35 kg reduction in body weight (95% confidence interval -3.52 to -1.19; I 2  = 93%), reducing also risk for hypoglycaemia [odds ratio 0.70; 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.86; I 2  = 85%] but increasing incidence of nausea (odds ratio 6.89; 95% confidence interval 3.73-12.74; I 2  = 79%). Similarly, switching patients from treatment with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist to a fixed ratio combination with basal insulin was associated with 0.94% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c (95% confidence interval -1.11 to -0.77) and an increase in body weight by 2.89 kg (95% confidence interval 2.17-3.61). Fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists improve glycaemic control whilst balancing out risk for hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal side effects.

Neonatal Infection in Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Smilga, Anne-Sophie; Garfinkle, Jarred; Ng, Pamela; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-03-01

The goal of this study was to explore the association between neonatal infection and outcomes in children with cerebral palsy. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Canadian CP Registry. Neonatal infection was defined as meeting one of the following criteria: (1) septicemia, (2) septic shock, or (3) administration of antibiotics for ≥10 days. Phenotypic profiles of children with cerebral palsy with and without an antecedent neonatal infection were compared. Subgroup analysis was performed, stratified by gestational age (term versus preterm). Of the 1229 registry participants, 505 (41.1%) were preterm, and 192 (15.6%) met the criteria for neonatal infection with 29% of preterm children having a neonatal infection compared with 6.5% in term-born children. Children with prior neonatal infection were more likely to have a white matter injury (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.2), spastic diplegic neurological subtype (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.3), and sensorineural auditory impairment (odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 3.3). Among preterm children, neonatal infection was not associated with a difference in phenotypic profile. Term-born children with neonatal infection were more likely to have spastic triplegia or quadriplegia (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.3), concomitant white matter and cortical injury (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6 to 10.3), and more severe gross motor ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System IV to V) (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8) compared with preterm children. Findings suggest a role of systemic infection on the developing brain in term-born infants, and the possibility to develop targeted therapeutic and preventive strategies to reduce cerebral palsy morbidity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

T-category remains an important prognostic factor for oropharyngeal carcinoma in the era of human papillomavirus.

PubMed

Mackenzie, P; Pryor, D; Burmeister, E; Foote, M; Panizza, B; Burmeister, B; Porceddu, S

2014-10-01

To determine prognostic factors for locoregional relapse (LRR), distant relapse and all-cause death in a contemporary cohort of locoregionally advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone. OSCC patients treated with definitive radiotherapy between 2005 and 2010 were identified from a prospective head and neck database. Patient age, gender, smoking history, human papillomavirus (HPV) status, T- and N-category, lowest involved nodal level and gross tumour volume of the primary (GTV-p) and nodal (GTV-n) disease were analysed in relation to LRR, distant relapse and death by way of univariate and multivariate analysis. In total, 130 patients were identified, 88 HPV positive, with a median follow-up of 42 months. On multivariate analysis HPV status was a significant predictor of LRR (hazard ratio 0.15; 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.51) and death (hazard ratio 0.29; 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.59) but not distant relapse (hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.22-1.27). Increasing T-category was associated with a higher risk of LRR (hazard ratio 1.80 for T3/4 versus T1/2; 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.99), death (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.77) and distant relapse (hazard ratio 1.35; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.83). Increasing GTV-p was associated with increased risk of distant relapse and death. N3 disease and low neck nodes were significant for LRR, distant relapse and death on univariate analysis only. Tumour HPV status was the strongest predictor of LRR and death. T-category is more predictive of distant relapse and may provide additional prognostic value for LRR and death when accounting for HPV status. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal.

PubMed

Mocroft, Amanda; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Egger, Matthias; May, Margaret; Grabar, Sophie; Furrer, Hansjakob; Sabin, Caroline; Fatkenheuer, Gerd; Justice, Amy; Reiss, Peter; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Gill, John; Hogg, Robert; Bonnet, Fabrice; Kitahata, Mari; Staszewski, Schlomo; Casabona, Jordi; Harris, Ross; Saag, Michael

2009-04-15

The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

Out-of-range INR values and outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Nelson, Winnie W; Wang, Li; Baser, Onur; Damaraju, Chandrasekharrao V; Schein, Jeffrey R

2015-02-01

Although efficacious in stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation, many warfarin patients are sub-optimally managed. To evaluate the association of international normalized ratio control and clinical outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Adult non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients (≥18 years) initiating warfarin treatment were selected from the US Veterans Health Administration dataset between 10/2007 and 9/2012. Valid international normalized ratio values were examined from the warfarin initiation date through the earlier of the first clinical outcome, end of warfarin exposure or death. Each patient contributed multiple in-range and out-of-range time periods. The relative risk ratios of clinical outcomes associated with international normalized ratio control were estimated. 34,346 patients were included for analysis. During the warfarin exposure period, the incidence of events per 100 person-years was highest when patients had international normalized ratio <2:13.66 for acute coronary syndrome; 10.30 for ischemic stroke; 2.93 for transient ischemic attack; 1.81 for systemic embolism; and 4.55 for major bleeding. Poisson regression confirmed that during periods with international normalized ratio <2, patients were at increased risk of developing acute coronary syndrome (relative risk ratio: 7.9; 95 % confidence interval 6.9-9.1), ischemic stroke (relative risk ratio: 7.6; 95 % confidence interval 6.5-8.9), transient ischemic attack (relative risk ratio: 8.2; 95 % confidence interval 6.1-11.2), systemic embolism (relative risk ratio: 6.3; 95 % confidence interval 4.4-8.9) and major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 2.6; 95 % confidence interval 2.2-3.0). During time periods with international normalized ratio >3, patients had significantly increased risk of major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 1.5; 95 % confidence interval 1.2-2.0). In a Veterans Health Administration non-valvular atrial fibrillation population, exposure to out-of-range international normalized ratio values was associated with significantly increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes.

The prevalence of diagnosed tourette syndrome in Canada: A national population-based study.

PubMed

Yang, Jaeun; Hirsch, Lauren; Martino, Davide; Jette, Nathalie; Roberts, Jodie; Pringsheim, Tamara

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine: (1) the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome in Canada by sex in youth (aged 12-17) and adults and (2) socioeconomic factors in this population. The majority of epidemiological studies of tics have focused on children and youth, with few studies describing the prevalence of tics in adult populations. Canadian data on Tourette syndrome prevalence were derived from the Canadian Community Health Survey 2010 and 2011 cycles, a Statistics Canada population-based cross-sectional survey that collects information related to health status. We determined the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome and examined sociodemographic factors, including age, sex, education, income, employment, and birthplace. Overall, 122,884 Canadians participated in the surveys, with 122 participants diagnosed with Tourette syndrome. The prevalence of Tourette syndrome was higher in males in youth: 6.03 per 1000 (95% confidence interval: 3.24-8.81) in males versus 0.48 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.91) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 5.31 (95% confidence interval: 2.38-11.81). In adults, the prevalence of Tourette syndrome was 0.89 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.48-1.29) in males versus 0.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.16.0-0.71) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 1.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-3.08). After adjusting for age and sex, adults with Tourette syndrome had lower odds of receiving postsecondary education or being employed and higher odds of having income lower than the median and receiving governmental support. Data on the prevalence of Tourette syndrome in adults are scarce because most studies focus on children. Our data demonstrate a decreasing prevalence risk ratio for sex in adults compared to children. A diagnosis of Tourette syndrome is associated with lower education, income, and employment in adulthood. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Stroke preparedness in children: translating knowledge into behavioral intent: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ottawa, Cassandra; Sposato, Luciano A; Nabbouh, Fadl; Saposnik, Gustavo

2015-10-01

If translated into behavioral intent, improving stroke knowledge may potentially impact on better outcomes. Children are an attractive target population since they can drive familial behavioral changes. However, the impact of interventions on stroke knowledge among children is unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether educational interventions targeting children improve stroke knowledge and lead to behavioral changes. We searched Ovid, PubMed, and Embase between January 2000 and December 2014. We included studies written in English reporting the number of children aged 6-15 years undergoing educational interventions on stroke and providing the results for baseline and early and late postintervention tests. We compared the proportion of correct answers between baseline, early, and late responses for two endpoints: knowledge and behavioral intent. Of the initial 58 articles found, we included nine that met the inclusion criteria. Compared with baseline tests (51·7%, 95% confidence interval 40·9-62·4), there was improvement in stroke knowledge in early (74·0%, 95% confidence interval 64·4-82·5, P = 0·002) and late (67·3%, 95% confidence interval 55·4-78·2, P = 0·027) responses. There was improvement in the early (92·1%, 95% confidence interval 86·0-96·6, P < 0·001) and late (83·9%, 95% confidence interval 73·5-92·1, P = 0·001) responses for behavioral intent compared with the baseline assessment (63·8%, 95% confidence interval 53·5-73·4). Children are a potentially attractive target population for improvement in stroke knowledge and behavioral intent, both in the short and long term. Our findings may support the implementation of large-scale stroke educational initiatives targeting children. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Suicide in patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sugawara, Akitomo; Kunieda, Etsuo

2016-09-01

We conducted this study to examine the rate of suicide in patients with gastric cancer and to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The database was queried for patients who were diagnosed with gastric cancer from 1998 to 2011. The rate of suicide and standardized mortality ratio were calculated. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide. A total of 65 535 patients with 109 597 person-years of follow-up were included. A total of 68 patients died of suicide. The age-adjusted rate of suicide was 34.6 per 100 000 person-years (standardized mortality ratios, 4.07; 95% confidence interval, 3.18-5.13). The rate of suicide was highest within the first 3 months after cancer diagnosis (standardized mortality ratios, 67.67; 95% confidence interval, 40.74-106.15). Results of multivariable analyses showed that male sex (incidence rate ratio, 7.15; 95% confidence interval, 3.05-16.78; P < 0.0001), White race (incidence rate ratio, 3.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-10.35; P = 0.0491), unmarried status (incidence rate ratio, 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.30; P = 0.0060) and distant stage disease (incidence rate ratio, 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.72-4.92; P < 0.0001) were significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. Patients with gastric cancer have an ~4-fold higher risk of suicide compared with the general US population. The suicide risk is highest within the first 3 months after diagnosis. Male sex, White race, unmarried status and distant stage disease are significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Integrating palliative care across settings: A retrospective cohort study of a hospice home care programme for cancer patients.

PubMed

Tan, Woan Shin; Lee, Angel; Yang, Sze Yee; Chan, Susan; Wu, Huei Yaw; Ng, Charis Wei Ling; Heng, Bee Hoon

2016-07-01

Terminally ill patients at the end-of-life do transit between care settings due to their complex care needs. Problems of care fragmentation could result in poor quality of care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of an integrated hospice home care programme on acute care service usage and on the share of home deaths. The retrospective study cohort comprised patients who were diagnosed with cancer, had an expected prognosis of 1 year or less, and were referred to a home hospice. The intervention group comprised deceased patients enrolled in the integrated hospice home care programme between September 2012 and June 2014. The historical comparison group comprised deceased patients who were referred to other home hospices between January 2007 and January 2011. There were 321 cases and 593 comparator subjects. Relative to the comparator group, the share of hospital deaths was significantly lower for programme participants (12.1% versus 42.7%). After adjusting for differences at baseline, the intervention group had statistically significantly lower emergency department visits at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.38; 95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.47), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.69) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.77) prior to death. Similar results held for the number of hospitalisations at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.48; 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.58), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.82) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.88) prior to death. Our results demonstrated that by integrating services between acute care and home hospice care, a reduction in acute care service usage could occur. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of dry eye syndrome in an adult population.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Mehravaran, Shiva; Shariati, Mohammad; Fotouhi, Akbar

2014-04-01

To determine the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the general 40- to 64-year-old population of Shahroud, Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Through cluster sampling, 6311 people were selected and 5190 participated. Assessment of dry eye was done in a random subsample of 1008 people. Subjective assessment for dry eye syndrome was performed using Ocular Surface Disease Index questionnaire. In addition, the following objective tests of dry eye syndrome were employed: Schirmer test, tear break-up time, and fluorescein and Rose Bengal staining using the Oxford grading scheme. Those with an Ocular Surface Disease Index score ≥23 were considered symptomatic, and dry eye syndrome was defined as having symptoms and at least one positive objective sign. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 6.9-10.6). Assessment of signs showed an abnormal Schirmer score in 17.8% (95% confidence interval 15.5-20.0), tear break-up time in 34.2% (95% confidence interval 29.5-38.8), corneal fluorescein staining (≥1) in 11.3% (95% confidence interval 8.5-14.1) and Rose Bengal staining (≥3 for cornea and/or conjunctiva) in 4.9% (95% confidence interval 3.4-6.5). According to the Ocular Surface Disease Index scores, 18.3% (95% confidence interval 15.9-20.6) had dry eye syndrome symptoms. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was significantly higher in women (P = 0.010) and not significantly associated with age (P = 0.291). The objective dry eye syndrome signs significantly increased with age. Based on the findings, the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the studied population is in the mid-range. The prevalence is higher in women. Also, objective tests tend to turn abnormal at higher age. Pterygium is associated with dry eye syndrome and increased its symptoms. © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The diagnostic value of narrow-band imaging for early and invasive lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Juanjuan; Li, Wei; Zhou, Jihong; Chen, Yuqing; Zhao, Chenling; Zhang, Ting; Peng, Wenjia; Wang, Xiaojing

2017-07-01

This study aimed to compare the ability of narrow-band imaging to detect early and invasive lung cancer with that of conventional pathological analysis and white-light bronchoscopy. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Sinomed, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases for relevant studies. Meta-disc software was used to perform data analysis, meta-regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and heterogeneity testing, and STATA software was used to determine if publication bias was present, as well as to calculate the relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs those of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer. A random-effects model was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the above modalities in cases in which a high degree of between-study heterogeneity was noted with respect to their diagnostic efficacies. The database search identified six studies including 578 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging were 86% (95% confidence interval: 83-88%) and 81% (95% confidence interval: 77-84%), respectively, and the pooled sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy were 70% (95% confidence interval: 66-74%) and 66% (95% confidence interval: 62-70%), respectively. The pooled relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs the sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer were 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.67) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.42), respectively, and sensitivity analysis showed that narrow-band imaging exhibited good diagnostic efficacy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer and that the results of the study were stable. Narrow-band imaging was superior to white light bronchoscopy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer; however, the specificities of the two modalities did not differ significantly.

Antecedents and neuroimaging patterns in cerebral palsy with epilepsy and cognitive impairment: a population-based study in children born at term.

PubMed

Ahlin, Kristina; Jacobsson, Bo; Nilsson, Staffan; Himmelmann, Kate

2017-07-01

Antecedents of accompanying impairments in cerebral palsy and their relation to neuroimaging patterns need to be explored. A population-based study of 309 children with cerebral palsy born at term between 1983 and 1994. Prepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum variables previously studied as antecedents of cerebral palsy type and motor severity were analyzed in children with cerebral palsy and cognitive impairment and/or epilepsy, and in children with cerebral palsy without these accompanying impairments. Neuroimaging patterns and their relation to identified antecedents were analyzed. Data were retrieved from the cerebral palsy register of western Sweden, and from obstetric and neonatal records. Children with cerebral palsy and accompanying impairments more often had low birthweight (kg) (odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3-0.8), brain maldevelopment known at birth (p = 0.007, odds ratio ∞) and neonatal infection (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.04-28.4). Moreover, neuroimaging patterns of maldevelopment (odds ratio 7.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-17.2), cortical/subcortical lesions (odds ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 2.3-12.2) and basal ganglia lesions (odds ratio 7.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-41.3) were more common, wheras white matter injury was found significantly less often (odds ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.5). In most children with maldevelopment, the intrapartum and postpartum periods were uneventful (p < 0.05). Cerebral maldevelopment was associated with prepartum antecedents, whereas subcortical/cortical and basal ganglia lesions were associated with intrapartum and postpartum antecedents. No additional factor other than those related to motor impairment was associated with epilepsy and cognitive impairment in cerebral palsy. Timing of antecedents deemed important for the development of cerebral palsy with accompanying impairments were supported by neuroimaging patterns. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Breast cancer biology varies by method of detection and may contribute to overdiagnosis.

PubMed

Hayse, Brandon; Hooley, Regina J; Killelea, Brigid K; Horowitz, Nina R; Chagpar, Anees B; Lannin, Donald R

2016-08-01

Recently, it has been suggested that screening mammography may result in some degree of overdiagnosis (ie, detection of breast cancers that would never become clinically important within the lifespan of the patient). The extent and biology of these overdiagnosed cancers, however, is not well understood, and the effect of newer screening modalities on overdiagnosis is unknown. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database of breast cancers diagnosed at the Yale Breast Center from 2004-2014. The mode of initial presentation was categorized into 5 groups: screening mammogram, screening magnetic resonance imaging, screening ultrasonography, self-detected masses, and physician-detected masses. Compared with cancers presenting with masses, cancers detected by image-based screening were more likely to present with ductal carcinoma-in-situ or T1 cancers (P < .001). In addition to a simple stage shift, however, cancers detected by image-based screening were also more likely to be luminal and low-grade cancers; symptomatic cancers were more likely high-grade and triple-negative (P < .001, respectively). On a multivariate analysis, adjusting for age, race, and tumor size, cancers detected by mammogram, US, and magnetic resonance imaging had greater odds of being luminal (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.3; odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-4.7; and odds ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval, 2.1-10.6, respectively), and low-grade (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.9; odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval, 2.7-8.9; and odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval, 2.6-8.1, respectively) compared with cancers presenting with self-detected masses. Screening detects cancers with more indolent biology, potentially contributing to the observed rate of overdiagnosis. With magnetic resonance imaging and US being used more commonly for screening, the rate of overdiagnosis may increase further. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes.

PubMed

Borzych-Duzalka, Dagmara; Aki, T Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A

2017-01-06

Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes

PubMed Central

Aki, T. Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. Results In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Conclusions Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. PMID:27899416

Toxoplasma gondii exposure and epilepsy: A matched case-control study in a public hospital in northern Mexico.

PubMed

Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Rico-Almochantaf, Yazmin Del Rosario; Hernández-Tinoco, Jesús; Quiñones-Canales, Gerardo; Sánchez-Anguiano, Luis Francisco; Torres-González, Jorge; Ramírez-Valles, Eda Guadalupe; Minjarez-Veloz, Andrea

2018-01-01

This study aimed to determine the association between infection with Toxoplasma gondii and epilepsy in patients attended to in a public hospital in the northern Mexican city of Durango. We performed an age- and gender-matched case-control study of 99 patients suffering from epilepsy and 99 without epilepsy. Sera of participants were analyzed for anti- T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies using commercially available enzyme-linked immunoassays. Seropositive samples to T. gondii were further analyzed for detection of T. gondii DNA by polymerase chain reaction. Anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 10 (10.1%) of the 99 cases and in 6 (6.1%) of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.60-4.99; p = 0.43). High (> 150 IU/mL) levels of anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 6 of the 99 cases and in 4 of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval: 0.41-5.60; p = 0.74). Anti- T. gondii IgM antibodies were found in 2 of the 10 IgG seropositive cases, and in 2 of the 6 IgG seropositive controls (odds ratio = 0.50; 95% confidence interval: 0.05-4.97; p = 0.60). T. gondii DNA was not found in any of the 10 anti- T. gondii IgG positive patients. Bivariate analysis of IgG seropositivity to T. gondii and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and related Health Problems, 10th Edition codes of epilepsy showed an association between seropositivity and G40.1 code (odds ratio = 22.0; 95% confidence interval: 2.59-186.5; p = 0.008). Logistic regression analysis showed an association between T. gondii infection and consumption of goat meat (odds ratio = 6.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-34.64; p = 0.02), unwashed raw vegetables (odds ratio = 26.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.61-265.23; p = 0.006), and tobacco use (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-36.66; p = 0.04). Results suggest that T. gondii infection does not increase the risk of epilepsy in our setting; however, infection might be linked to specific types of epilepsy. Factors associated with T. gondii infection found in this study may aid in the design of preventive measures against toxoplasmosis.

Incidence of Mastitis in the Neonatal Period in a Traditional Breastfeeding Society: Results of a Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Scott, Jane A.; Lee, Andy H.; Binns, Colin W.

2015-01-01

Abstract Background: Mastitis is a painful problem experienced by breastfeeding women, especially in the first few weeks postpartum. There have been limited studies of the incidence of mastitis from traditionally breastfeeding societies in South Asia. This study investigated the incidence, determinants, and management of mastitis in the first month postpartum, as well as its association with breastfeeding outcomes at 4 and 6 months postpartum, in western Nepal. Subjects and Methods: Subjects were a subsample of 338 mothers participating in a larger prospective cohort study conducted in 2014 in western Nepal. Mothers were interviewed during the first month postpartum and again at 4 and 6 months to obtain information on breastfeeding practices. The association of mastitis and determinant variables was investigated using multivariable logistic regression, and the association with breastfeeding duration was examined using Kaplan–Meier estimation. Results: The incidence of mastitis was 8.0% (95% confidence interval, 5.1%, 10.8%) in the first month postpartum. Prelacteal feeding (adjusted odds ratio = 2.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.03, 7.40) and cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.09, 11.42) were associated with a higher likelihood of mastitis. Kaplan–Meier estimation showed no significant difference in the duration of exclusive breastfeeding among the mothers who experienced an episode of mastitis and those who did not. Conclusions: Roughly one in 10 (8.0%) women experienced mastitis in the first month postpartum, and there appeared to be little effect of mastitis on breastfeeding outcomes. Traditional breastfeeding practices should be encouraged, and the management of mastitis should be included as a part of lactation promotion. PMID:26488802

Diagnostic capability of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography for glaucoma.

PubMed

Wu, Huijuan; de Boer, Johannes F; Chen, Teresa C

2012-05-01

To determine the diagnostic capability of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography in glaucoma patients with visual field defects. Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants were recruited from a university hospital clinic. One eye of 85 normal subjects and 61 glaucoma patients with average visual field mean deviation of -9.61 ± 8.76 dB was selected randomly for the study. A subgroup of the glaucoma patients with early visual field defects was calculated separately. Spectralis optical coherence tomography (Heidelberg Engineering, Inc) circular scans were performed to obtain peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thicknesses. The RNFL diagnostic parameters based on the normative database were used alone or in combination for identifying glaucomatous RNFL thinning. To evaluate diagnostic performance, calculations included areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio. Overall RNFL thickness had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values: 0.952 for all patients and 0.895 for the early glaucoma subgroup. For all patients, the highest sensitivity (98.4%; 95% confidence interval, 96.3% to 100%) was achieved by using 2 criteria: ≥ 1 RNFL sectors being abnormal at the < 5% level and overall classification of borderline or outside normal limits, with specificities of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 84.0% to 94.0%) and 87.1% (95% confidence interval, 81.6% to 92.5%), respectively, for these 2 criteria. Statistical parameters for evaluating the diagnostic performance of the Spectralis spectral-domain optical coherence tomography were good for early perimetric glaucoma and were excellent for moderately advanced perimetric glaucoma. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with syphilis treatment failure and reinfection: a longitudinal cohort study in Shenzhen, China.

PubMed

Luo, Zhenzhou; Zhu, Lin; Ding, Yi; Yuan, Jun; Li, Wu; Wu, Qiuhong; Tian, Lishan; Zhang, Li; Zhou, Guomao; Zhang, Tao; Ma, Jianping; Chen, Zhongwei; Yang, Tubao; Feng, Tiejian; Zhang, Min

2017-09-13

The treatment failure and reinfection rates among syphilis patients are high, and relevant studies in China are limited. The aim of this study was to detect the rates of treatment failure and reinfection after syphilis treatment and to explore the potential associated factors. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study in a sexually transmitted disease clinic, the Department of Dermatology and Venereology in Nanshan Center for Chronic Disease Control. Serological testing was performed at baseline and throughout the 2-year follow-up for syphilis patients. To identify potential predictors of treatment outcomes, multivariate logistics analyses were utilized to compare the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with serological failure/reinfection to those with serological cure/serofast. From June 2011 to June 2016, a total of 1133 patients were screened for syphilis. Among the 770 patients who completed the 2-year follow-up, 510 first-diagnosed patients were included in the final analysis. Multivariate logistics analysis revealed the stage of syphilis (secondary syphilis VS. primary syphilis: adjusted odds ratio, 3.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-15.47; p = 0.04), HIV status (positive VS. negative: adjusted odds ratio, 3.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-8.04; p = 0.02) and frequency of condom use (always use VS. never use: adjusted odds ratio, 0.28; 95% confidence interval 0.08-0.75; p = 0.02) were significantly associated with the serological outcome. The clinical implications of our findings suggest that it is very important to perform regular clinical and serologic evaluations after treatment. Health counseling and safety education on sex activity should be intensified among HIV-infected patients and secondary syphilis patients after treatment.

Bariatric surgery in adolescents with severe obesity: Review and state of the art in France.

PubMed

Coutant, Régis; Bouhours-Nouet, Natacha; Donzeau, Aurélie; Fauchard, Mathilde; Decrequy, Anne; Malka, Jean; Riquin, Elise; Beaumesnil, Marion; Sallé, Agnès; Briet, Claire; Topart, Philippe; Schmitt, Françoise

2017-10-01

Severe obesity (body mass index>120% of BMI IOTF-30 cut off) and morbid obesity (BMI>140% of BMI IOTF-30 cut off) affect 5 to 10% of obese adolescents in France. Organic complications can be found in about 50% of these patients, and depressive symptoms in one-third of them. Finally, over 70% will suffer from adult morbid obesity associated with a marked increase in morbidity and mortality. However, the reversion of obesity strongly decreases, and may even cancels, these risks. In controlled randomized studies, lifestyle interventions have limited effectiveness on BMI in children (and none in adolescents). Bariatric surgery has been shown to have short-term effectiveness in adolescents with severe and morbid obesity: the average BMI loss after gastric banding was 11.6kg/m 2 (95% confidence interval from 9.8 to 13.4), 16.6kg/m 2 (95% confidence interval from 13.4 to 19.8) after bypass, and 14.1kg/m 2 (95% confidence interval 10.8 to 17.5) after sleeve gastrectomy. The resolution of comorbidities was the main aim, as well as the improvement of quality of life. This is not a simple surgical intervention, and minor side effects have been reported in approximately 10-15% of teenagers who underwent surgery (more common with the gastric band), and severe side effects in nearly 1-5% (mainly with bypass). In France, recommendations regarding indications, the care pathway, multidisciplinary meetings, reference management structures and postoperative care have been published by the French National Health Authority (HAS) in 2016 to provide a framework for bariatric surgery in underage patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Clinical Outcomes of Golimumab as First, Second or Third Anti-TNF Agent in Patients with Moderate-to-Severe Ulcerative Colitis.

PubMed

Taxonera, Carlos; Rodríguez, Cristina; Bertoletti, Federico; Menchén, Luís; Arribas, Julia; Sierra, Mónica; Arias, Lara; Martínez-Montiel, Pilar; Juan, Alba; Iglesias, Eva; Algaba, Alicia; Manceñido, Noemí; Rivero, Montserrat; Barreiro-de Acosta, Manuel; López-Serrano, Pilar; Argüelles-Arias, Federico; Gutierrez, Ana; Busquets, David; Gisbert, Javier P; Olivares, David; Calvo, Marta; Alba, Cristina

2017-08-01

Golimumab efficacy data in ulcerative colitis (UC) are limited to anti-tumor necrosis factor α (TNF)-naive patients. The aim of this study was to assess the short-term and long-term efficacy of golimumab used as first, second, or third anti-TNF in UC in a real-life clinical setting. This retrospective multicenter cohort study included patients with moderate-to-severe UC treated with golimumab. The primary efficacy endpoints were short-term partial Mayo score response, long-term golimumab failure-free survival, and colectomy-free survival. In 142 patients with UC, golimumab was administered as first (40%), second (23%), or third anti-TNF (37%). Ninety-two patients (65%, 95% confidence interval 56.6-73) achieved short-term clinical response. Forty-five patients (32%, 95% confidence interval 23.7-39.7) achieved clinical remission. Response rates for golimumab were 75% as first anti-TNF, 70% as second anti-TNF (ns versus first anti-TNF), and 50% as third anti-TNF (P = 0.007 versus first anti-TNF). After 12 months median follow-up (interquartile range 6-18), 60 patients (42%, 95% confidence interval 34-51) had golimumab failure, and 15 patients (11%) needed colectomy. Thirty-one patients (22%) needed golimumab dose escalation, and 71% of these regained response after escalation. Starting maintenance with 100 mg golimumab doses and short-term nonresponse were independent predictors of golimumab failure. In this real-life cohort of patients with UC, golimumab therapy was effective for inducing and maintaining clinical response. Although anti-TNF-naive patients had better outcomes, golimumab was also effective in anti-TNF-experienced patients. Only the patients given golimumab after previous failure of 2 anti-TNF agents had significantly worse outcomes. Golimumab dose escalation was beneficial and safe.

Propensity Score Analysis Comparing Videothoracoscopic Lobectomy With Thoracotomy: A French Nationwide Study.

PubMed

Pagès, Pierre-Benoit; Delpy, Jean-Philippe; Orsini, Bastien; Gossot, Dominique; Baste, Jean-Marc; Thomas, Pascal; Dahan, Marcel; Bernard, Alain

2016-04-01

Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy has recently become the recommended approach for stage I non-small cell lung cancer. However, these guidelines are not based on any large randomized control trial. Our study used propensity scores and a sensitivity analysis to compare VATS lobectomy with open thoracotomy. From 2005 to 2012, 24,811 patients (95.1%) were operated on by open thoracotomy and 1,278 (4.9%) by VATS. The end points were 30-day postoperative death, postoperative complications, hospital stay, overall survival, and disease-free survival. Two propensity scores analyses were performed: matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting, and one sensitivity analysis to unmask potential hidden bias. A subgroup analysis was performed to compare "high-risk" with "low-risk" patients. Results are reported by odds ratios or hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Postoperative death was not significantly reduced by VATS whatever the analysis. Concerning postoperative complications, VATS significantly decreased the occurrence of atelectasis and pneumopathy with both analysis methods, but there were no differences in the occurrence of other postoperative complications. VATS did not provide a benefit for high-risk patients. The VATS approach decreased the hospital length of stay from 2.4 days (95% confidence interval, -1.7 to -3 days) to -4.68 days (95% confidence interval, -8.5 to 0.9 days). Overall survival and disease-free survival were not influenced by the surgical approach. The sensitivity analysis showed potential biases. The results must be interpreted carefully because of the differences observed according to the propensity scores method used. A multicenter randomized controlled trial is necessary to limit the biases. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic utility of novel biomarkers of cardiovascular stress: the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Wang, Thomas J; Wollert, Kai C; Larson, Martin G; Coglianese, Erin; McCabe, Elizabeth L; Cheng, Susan; Ho, Jennifer E; Fradley, Michael G; Ghorbani, Anahita; Xanthakis, Vanessa; Kempf, Tibor; Benjamin, Emelia J; Levy, Daniel; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Januzzi, James L

2012-09-25

Biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular events in community-based populations have not consistently added information to standard risk factors. A limitation of many previously studied biomarkers is their lack of cardiovascular specificity. To determine the prognostic value of 3 novel biomarkers induced by cardiovascular stress, we measured soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity troponin I in 3428 participants (mean age, 59 years; 53% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. We performed multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models to assess the individual and combined ability of the biomarkers to predict adverse outcomes. We also constructed a "multimarker" score composed of the 3 biomarkers in addition to B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. During a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, there were 488 deaths, 336 major cardiovascular events, 162 heart failure events, and 142 coronary events. In multivariable-adjusted models, the 3 new biomarkers were associated with each end point (P<0.001) except coronary events. Individuals with multimarker scores in the highest quartile had a 3-fold risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-4.7; P<0.001), 6-fold risk of heart failure (6.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-14.8; P<0.001), and 2-fold risk of cardiovascular events (1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.7; P=0.001). Addition of the multimarker score to clinical variables led to significant increases in the c statistic (P=0.005 or lower) and net reclassification improvement (P=0.001 or lower). Multiple biomarkers of cardiovascular stress are detectable in ambulatory individuals and add prognostic value to standard risk factors for predicting death, overall cardiovascular events, and heart failure.

Abnormal Liver Biochemistry Is Common in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Prevalence and Associations.

PubMed

Valentino, Pamela L; Feldman, Brian M; Walters, Thomas D; Griffiths, Anne M; Ling, Simon C; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M; Kamath, Binita M

2015-12-01

Liver enzymes (LEs) abnormalities associated with pediatric inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) are understudied. We undertook to describe the development and associations of abnormal LEs in pediatric IBD. We ascertained a cohort of 300 children with IBD and collected retrospective data. A Kaplan-Meier analysis determined the time to development of different thresholds of abnormal LEs. Associations between clinical variables and the development of abnormal LEs were determined. The probability of developing the first episode of abnormal LEs above the upper limit of normal (ULN) within 150 months was 58.1% (16.3% by 1 mo post-IBD diagnosis). There was a 6% prevalence of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) or autoimmune sclerosing cholangitis (ASC) in this cohort. Of those diagnosed with PSC/ASC, 93% had persistent LE elevations at a threshold of >2× ULN, while those without PSC/ASC had a 4% probability of this abnormality. Elevated gamma glutamyltranspeptidase levels of 252 U/L had a 99% sensitivity and 71% specificity for PSC/ASC in IBD. After exclusion of patients with PSC/ASC, corticosteroids, antibiotics, and exclusive enteral nutrition demonstrated strongly positive associations with the first development of abnormal LEs >ULN (hazard ratio 2.1 [95% confidence interval, 1.3-3.3], hazard ratio 5.6 [95% confidence interval, 3.6-8.9], hazard ratio 4.2 [95% confidence interval, 1.6-11.3], respectively). Abnormal LEs are common in pediatric IBD and occur early. PSC/ASC is associated with persistently high LEs and gamma glutamyltranspeptidase levels >252 U/L. Children with IBD are at risk of elevated LEs if they require medications other than 5-ASA to induce IBD remission.

Pulmonary Vein Antral Isolation and Nonpulmonary Vein Trigger Ablation Are Sufficient to Achieve Favorable Long-Term Outcomes Including Transformation to Paroxysmal Arrhythmias in Patients With Persistent and Long-Standing Persistent Atrial Fibrillation.

PubMed

Liang, Jackson J; Elafros, Melissa A; Muser, Daniele; Pathak, Rajeev K; Santangeli, Pasquale; Zado, Erica S; Frankel, David S; Supple, Gregory E; Schaller, Robert D; Deo, Rajat; Garcia, Fermin C; Lin, David; Hutchinson, Mathew D; Riley, Michael P; Callans, David J; Marchlinski, Francis E; Dixit, Sanjay

2016-11-01

Transformation from persistent to paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) after ablation suggests modification of the underlying substrate. We examined the nature of initial arrhythmia recurrence in patients with nonparoxysmal AF undergoing antral pulmonary vein isolation and nonpulmonary vein trigger ablation and correlated recurrence type with long-term ablation efficacy after the last procedure. Three hundred and seventeen consecutive patients with persistent (n=200) and long-standing persistent (n=117) AF undergoing first ablation were included. AF recurrence was defined as early (≤6 weeks) or late (>6 weeks after ablation) and paroxysmal (either spontaneous conversion or treated with cardioversion ≤7 days) or persistent (lasting >7 days). During median follow-up of 29.8 (interquartile range: 14.8-49.9) months, 221 patients had ≥1 recurrence. Initial recurrence was paroxysmal in 169 patients (76%) and persistent in 52 patients (24%). Patients experiencing paroxysmal (versus persistent) initial recurrence were more likely to achieve long-term freedom off antiarrhythmic drugs (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.2; P<0.0001), freedom on/off antiarrhythmic drugs (hazard ratio, 2.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-3.8; P<0.0001), and arrhythmia control (hazard ratio, 5.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-9.2; P<0.0001) after last ablation. In patients with persistent and long-standing persistent AF, limited ablation targeting pulmonary veins and documented nonpulmonary vein triggers improves the maintenance of sinus rhythm and reverses disease progression. Transformation to paroxysmal AF after initial ablation may be a step toward long-term freedom from recurrent arrhythmia. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Hemoglobin Concentration and Risk of Incident Stroke in Community-Living Adults.

PubMed

Panwar, Bhupesh; Judd, Suzanne E; Warnock, David G; McClellan, William M; Booth, John N; Muntner, Paul; Gutiérrez, Orlando M

2016-08-01

In previous observational studies, hemoglobin concentrations have been associated with an increased risk of stroke. However, these studies were limited by a relatively low number of stroke events, making it difficult to determine whether the association of hemoglobin and stroke differed by demographic or clinical factors. Using Cox proportional hazards analysis and Kaplan-Meier plots, we examined the association of baseline hemoglobin concentrations with incident stroke in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, a cohort of black and white adults aged ≥45 years. A total of 518 participants developed stroke over a mean 7±2 years of follow-up. There was a statistically significant interaction between hemoglobin and sex (P=0.05) on the risk of incident stroke. In Cox regression models adjusted for demographic and clinical variables, there was no association of baseline hemoglobin concentration with incident stroke in men, whereas in women, the lowest (<12.4 g/dL) and highest (>14.0 g/dL) quartiles of hemoglobin were associated with higher risk of stroke when compared with the second quartile (12.4-13.2 g/dL; quartile 1: hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.31; quartile 2: referent; quartile 3: hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-1.38; quartile 4: hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.35). Similar results were observed in models stratified by hemoglobin and sex and when hemoglobin was modeled as a continuous variable using restricted quadratic spline regression. Lower and higher hemoglobin concentrations were associated with a higher risk of incident stroke in women. No such associations were found in men. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Responsiveness of outcome measures for upper limb prosthetic rehabilitation.

PubMed

Resnik, Linda; Borgia, Matthew

2016-02-01

There is limited research on responsiveness of prosthetic rehabilitation outcome measures. To examine responsiveness of the Box and Block test, Jebsen-Taylor Hand Function tests, Upper Extremity Functional Scale, University of New Brunswick skill and spontaneity tests, Activity Measure for Upper Limb Amputation, and the Patient-Specific Functional Scale. This was a quasi-experimental study with repeated measurements in a convenience sample of upper limb amputees. Measures were collected before, during, and after training with the DEKA Arm. Largest effect sizes were observed for Patient-Specific Functional Scale (effect size: 1.59, confidence interval: 1.00, 2.14), Activity Measure for Upper Limb Amputation (effect size: 1.33, confidence interval: 0.73, 1.90), and University of New Brunswick skill test (effect size: 1.18, confidence interval: 0.61, 1.73). Other measures that were responsive to change were Box and Block test, Jebsen-Taylor Hand Function light and heavy can tests, and University of New Brunswick spontaneity test. Responsiveness and pattern of responsiveness varied by prosthetic level. The Box and Block test, Jebsen-Taylor Hand Function light and heavy can tests, University of New Brunswick skill and spontaneity tests, Activities Measure for Upper Limb Amputation, and the Patient-Specific Functional Scale were responsive to change during prosthetic training. These findings have implications for choice of measures for research and practice and inform clinicians about the amount of training necessary to maximize outcomes with the DEKA Arm. Findings on responsiveness of outcome measures have implications for the choice of measures for clinical trials and practice. Findings regarding the responsiveness to change over the course of training can inform clinicians about the amount of training that may be necessary to maximize specific outcomes with the DEKA Arm. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2014.

Cross-cultural adaptation and measurement properties of the Brazilian Portuguese Version of the Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Patella (VISA-P) scale.

PubMed

Wageck, Bruna Borges; de Noronha, Marcos; Lopes, Alexandre Dias; da Cunha, Ronaldo Alves; Takahashi, Ricardo Hisayoshi; Costa, Leonardo Oliveira Pena

2013-03-01

Clinical measurement. To translate, adapt, and test the measurement properties of the Brazilian Portuguese version of the Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Patella (VISA-P) questionnaire. It is important to objectively measure symptoms and functional limitations related to patellar tendinopathy using outcome measures that have been validated in the language of the target population. Cross-cultural adaptations are also useful to enhance the understanding of the measurement properties of an assessment tool, regardless of the target language. The VISA-P questionnaire was translated into Brazilian Portuguese, culturally adapted, and titled VISA-P Brazil. It was then administered on 2 occasions with a 24- to 48-hour interval between them, and a third time after a month of physical therapy treatment. The following measurement properties were analyzed: internal consistency, test-retest reliability, agreement, construct validity, floor and ceiling effects, and responsiveness. The VISA-P Brazil had high internal consistency (Cronbach α = .76; if item deleted, Cronbach α = .69-.78), excellent reliability and agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91; 95% confidence interval: 0.85, 0.95; standard error of measurement, 5.2 points; minimal detectable change at the 90% confidence level, 12.2 points), and good construct validity (Pearson r = 0.60 compared to Lysholm). No ceiling and floor effects were detected for the VISA-P Brazil, and the responsiveness, based on 32 patients receiving physical therapy intervention for 1 month, demonstrated a large effect size of 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.68, 1.25). The VISA-P Brazil is a reproducible and responsive tool and can be used in clinical practice and research to assess the severity of pain and disability of patients with patellar tendinopathy.

Association Between Serum 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D Levels and Blood Pressure Among Adolescents in Two Resource-Limited Settings in Peru

PubMed Central

Tomaino, Katherine; Romero, Karina M.; Robinson, Colin L.; Baumann, Lauren M.; Hansel, Nadia N.; Pollard, Suzanne L.; Gilman, Robert H.; Mougey, Edward; Lima, John J.

2015-01-01

INTRODUCTION Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) deficiency (<50 nmol/l or 20ng/ml) has been associated with increased blood pressure (BP) in observational studies. A paucity of data on this relationship is available in Latin American or child populations. This study investigates the association between 25OHD levels and BP in adolescents at risk for vitamin D deficiency in 2 Peruvian settings. METHODS In a population-based study of 1,441 Peruvian adolescents aged 13–15 years, 1,074 (75%) provided a serum blood sample for 25OHD analysis and BP measurements. Relationships between 25OHD and BP metrics were assessed using multiple linear regressions, adjusted for anthropometrics and sociodemographic factors. RESULTS 25OHD deficiency was associated with an elevated diastolic BP (DBP) (1.09mm Hg increase, 95% confidence interval: 0.04 to 2.14; P = 0.04) compared to nondeficient adolescents. Systolic BP (SBP) trended to increase with vitamin D deficiency (1.30mm Hg increase, 95% confidence interval: −0.13 to 2.72; P = 0.08). Mean arterial pressure (MAP) was also greater in adolescents with 25OHD (1.16mm Hg increase, 95% confidence interval: 0.10 to 2.22; P = 0.03). SBP was found to demonstrate a U-shaped relationship with 25OHD, while DBP and MAP demonstrated inverse J-shaped relationships with serum 25OHD status. The association between 25OHD deficiency and BP was not different across study sites (all P ≥ 0.19). DISCUSSION Adolescents deficient in 25OHD demonstrated increased DBP and MAP and a trend toward increased SBP, when compared to nondeficient subjects. 25OHD deficiency early in life was associated with elevated BP metrics, which may predispose risk of hypertension later in adulthood. PMID:25600222

Exposure to 4,4'-methylene bis (2-chloroaniline) (MbOCA) in New South Wales, Australia

PubMed Central

Shankar, Kiran; Fung, Vivian; Seneviratne, Mahinda; O'Donnell, Gregory E

2017-01-01

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine the level of exposure of 4,4'-methylene bis (2-chloroaniline) (MbOCA) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Methods: An integrated occupational hygiene and biological monitoring program were used to assess the workers' exposure to MbOCA via inhalation, ingestion and dermal contact. This was conducted by personal air monitoring, static air monitoring and surface contamination monitoring of the work environment and biological monitoring of the workers' exposure to MbOCA at nine workplaces in NSW. Results: The air monitoring results for MbOCA gave a geometric mean (GM) of 0.06 μg/m3 and a geometric standard deviation (GSD) of 2.70 and a 95% confidence interval of 0.29 μg/m3. The surface contamination in the main work area showed the highest contamination with a GM of 74 ng/cm2 and a GSD of 17 and a 95% confidence interval of 7,751 ng/cm2. Biological monitoring showed a GM of 0.89 μmol/mol cr and a GSD of 11.9 and a 95% confidence interval of 52 μmol/mol cr. This indicated that 13% of the workers were over the SafeWork NSW Biological Occupational Exposure Limit of 15 μmol/mol cr. Conclusions: Workers' exposure through inhalation was minimal; however, evidence from biological monitoring of MbOCA suggested that the main contributing factor to exposure was skin absorption. This was attributed to poor housekeeping and inadequate personal protection. Improvements in these areas were recommended, and it was also recommended to improve the awareness of the workers to the adverse effects to their health of exposure to this carcinogen. PMID:28320979

Association Between Troponin Levels and Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

PubMed

Merkler, Alexander E; Gialdini, Gino; Murthy, Santosh B; Salehi Omran, Setareh; Moya, Antonio; Lerario, Michael P; Chong, Ji; Okin, Peter M; Weinsaft, Jonathan W; Safford, Monika M; Fink, Matthew E; Navi, Babak B; Iadecola, Costantino; Kamel, Hooman

2017-09-22

Our aim was to determine whether patients with embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS) have higher rates of elevated troponin than patients with noncardioembolic strokes. CAESAR (The Cornell Acute Stroke Academic Registry) prospectively enrolled all adults with acute stroke from 2011 to 2014. Two neurologists used standard definitions to retrospectively ascertain the etiology of stroke, with a third resolving disagreements. In this analysis we included patients with ESUS and, as controls, patients with small- and large-artery strokes; only patients with a troponin measured within 24 hours of stroke onset were included. A troponin elevation was defined as a value exceeding our laboratory's upper limit (0.04 ng/mL) without a clinically recognized acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between troponin elevation and ESUS after adjustment for demographics, stroke severity, insular infarction, and vascular risk factors. In a sensitivity analysis we excluded patients diagnosed with atrial fibrillation after discharge. Among 512 patients, 243 (47.5%) had ESUS, and 269 (52.5%) had small- or large-artery stroke. In multivariable analysis an elevated troponin was independently associated with ESUS (odds ratio 3.3; 95% confidence interval 1.2, 8.8). This result was unchanged after excluding patients diagnosed with atrial fibrillation after discharge (odds ratio 3.4; 95% confidence interval 1.3, 9.1), and the association remained significant when troponin was considered a continuous variable (odds ratio for log[troponin], 1.4; 95% confidence interval 1.1, 1.7). Elevations in cardiac troponin are more common in patients with ESUS than in those with noncardioembolic strokes. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Mechanism-based pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling of the antinociceptive effect of buprenorphine in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Yassen, Ashraf; Olofsen, Erik; Romberg, Raymonda; Sarton, Elise; Danhof, Meindert; Dahan, Albert

2006-06-01

The objective of this investigation was to characterize the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relation of buprenorphine's antinociceptive effect in healthy volunteers. Data on the time course of the antinociceptive effect after intravenous administration of 0.05-0.6 mg/70 kg buprenorphine in healthy volunteers was analyzed in conjunction with plasma concentrations by nonlinear mixed-effects analysis. A three-compartment pharmacokinetic model best described the concentration time course. Four structurally different pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models were evaluated for their appropriateness to describe the time course of buprenorphine's antinociceptive effect: (1) E(max) model with an effect compartment model, (2) "power" model with an effect compartment model, (3) receptor association-dissociation model with a linear transduction function, and (4) combined biophase equilibration/receptor association-dissociation model with a linear transduction function. The latter pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model described the time course of effect best and was used to explain time dependencies in buprenorphine's pharmacodynamics. The model converged, yielding precise estimation of the parameters characterizing hysteresis and the relation between relative receptor occupancy and antinociceptive effect. The rate constant describing biophase equilibration (k(eo)) was 0.00447 min(-1) (95% confidence interval, 0.00299-0.00595 min(-1)). The receptor dissociation rate constant (k(off)) was 0.0785 min(-1) (95% confidence interval, 0.0352-0.122 min(-1)), and k(on) was 0.0631 ml . ng(-1) . min(-1) (95% confidence interval, 0.0390-0.0872 ml . ng(-1) . min(-1)). This is consistent with observations in rats, suggesting that the rate-limiting step in the onset and offset of the antinociceptive effect is biophase distribution rather than slow receptor association-dissociation. In the dose range studied, no saturation of receptor occupancy occurred explaining the lack of a ceiling effect for antinociception.

Task shifting to clinical officer-led echocardiography screening for detecting rheumatic heart disease in Malawi, Africa.

PubMed

Sims Sanyahumbi, Amy; Sable, Craig A; Karlsten, Melissa; Hosseinipour, Mina C; Kazembe, Peter N; Minard, Charles G; Penny, Daniel J

2017-08-01

Echocardiographic screening for rheumatic heart disease in asymptomatic children may result in early diagnosis and prevent progression. Physician-led screening is not feasible in Malawi. Task shifting to mid-level providers such as clinical officers may enable more widespread screening. Hypothesis With short-course training, clinical officers can accurately screen for rheumatic heart disease using focussed echocardiography. A total of eight clinical officers completed three half-days of didactics and 2 days of hands-on echocardiography training. Clinical officers were evaluated by performing screening echocardiograms on 20 children with known rheumatic heart disease status. They indicated whether children should be referred for follow-up. Referral was indicated if mitral regurgitation measured more than 1.5 cm or there was any measurable aortic regurgitation. The κ statistic was calculated to measure referral agreement with a paediatric cardiologist. Sensitivity and specificity were estimated using a generalised linear mixed model, and were calculated on the basis of World Heart Federation diagnostic criteria. The mean κ statistic comparing clinical officer referrals with the paediatric cardiologist was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.82). The κ value ranged from a minimum of 0.57 to a maximum of 0.90. For rheumatic heart disease diagnosis, sensitivity was 0.91 (95% confidence interval: 0.86, 0.95) and specificity was 0.65 (95% confidence interval: 0.57, 0.72). There was substantial agreement between clinical officers and paediatric cardiologists on whether to refer. Clinical officers had a high sensitivity in detecting rheumatic heart disease. With short-course training, clinical officer-led echo screening for rheumatic heart disease is a viable alternative to physician-led screening in resource-limited settings.

Viral encephalitis after allogeneic stem cell transplantation: a rare complication with distinct characteristics of different causative agents

PubMed Central

Schmidt-Hieber, Martin; Schwender, Julie; Heinz, Werner J.; Zabelina, Tatjana; Kühl, Jörn S.; Mousset, Sabine; Schüttrumpf, Silke; Junghanss, Christian; Silling, Gerda; Basara, Nadezda; Neuburger, Stefan; Thiel, Eckhard; Blau, Igor W.

2011-01-01

Background Limited data are available on characteristics of viral encephalitis in patients after allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Design and Methods We analyzed 2,628 patients after allogeneic stem cell transplantation to identify risk factors and characteristics of viral encephalitis. Results Viral encephalitis occurred in 32 patients (1.2%, 95% confidence interval 0.8%–1.6%) and was associated with the use of OKT-3 or alemtuzumab for T-cell depletion (P<0.001) and an increased mortality (P=0.011) in comparison to patients without viral encephalitis. Detected viruses included human herpesvirus-6 (28%), Epstein-Barr virus (19%), herpes simplex virus (13%), JC virus (9%), varicella zoster virus (6%), cytomegalovirus (6%) and adenovirus (3%). More than one virus was identified in 16% of the patients. The median onset time was 106 days after allogeneic stem cell transplantation for the total group of 32 patients, but onset times were shortest in those with human herpesvirus-6 encephalitis and longest in those with JC virus-associated progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. The probability of a sustained response to treatment was 63% (95% confidence interval 44%–82%) with a median survival of 94 (95% confidence interval 36–152) days after onset, but significant variation was found when considering different causative viruses. Patients with herpes simplex virus encephalitis had the most favorable outcome with no encephalitis-related deaths. Conclusions The use of OKT-3 or alemtuzumab for in vivo T-cell depletion is associated with an increased risk of viral encephalitis after allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Different viruses are frequently associated with distinct characteristics such as onset time, response to treatment and outcome. PMID:20851868

The Safety and Efficacy of Approaches to Liver Resection: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Hauch, Adam; Hu, Tian; Buell, Joseph F.; Slakey, Douglas P.; Kandil, Emad

2015-01-01

Background: The aim of this study is to compare the safety and efficacy of conventional laparotomy with those of robotic and laparoscopic approaches to hepatectomy. Database: Independent reviewers conducted a systematic review of publications in PubMed and Embase, with searches limited to comparative articles of laparoscopic hepatectomy with either conventional or robotic liver approaches. Outcomes included total operative time, estimated blood loss, length of hospitalization, resection margins, postoperative complications, perioperative mortality rates, and cost measures. Outcome comparisons were calculated using random-effects models to pool estimates of mean net differences or of the relative risk between group outcomes. Forty-nine articles, representing 3702 patients, comprise this analysis: 1901 (51.35%) underwent a laparoscopic approach, 1741 (47.03%) underwent an open approach, and 60 (1.62%) underwent a robotic approach. There was no difference in total operative times, surgical margins, or perioperative mortality rates among groups. Across all outcome measures, laparoscopic and robotic approaches showed no difference. As compared with the minimally invasive groups, patients undergoing laparotomy had a greater estimated blood loss (pooled mean net change, 152.0 mL; 95% confidence interval, 103.3–200.8 mL), a longer length of hospital stay (pooled mean difference, 2.22 days; 95% confidence interval, 1.78–2.66 days), and a higher total complication rate (odds ratio, 0.5; 95% confidence interval, 0.42–0.57). Conclusion: Minimally invasive approaches to liver resection are as safe as conventional laparotomy, affording less estimated blood loss, shorter lengths of hospitalization, lower perioperative complication rates, and equitable oncologic integrity and postoperative mortality rates. There was no proven advantage of robotic approaches compared with laparoscopic approaches. PMID:25848191

Aspirin and Risk of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Phan, Kevin; Moore, Justin M; Griessenauer, Christoph J; Ogilvy, Christopher S; Thomas, Ajith J

2017-05-01

Recent studies have suggested that the use of low-dose aspirin may reduce the risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). We aimed to evaluate any association between aspirin use and risk of aSAH based on the literature, and whether this is influenced by duration or frequency of aspirin use. A search of electronic databases was done from inception to September 2016. For each study, data on risk of aSAH in aspirin versus nonaspirin users were used to generate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, and combined using inverse variance-weighted averages of logarithmic odds ratios in a random-effects models. From 7 included studies, no significant difference was noted between aspirin use of any duration or frequency and nonaspirin users (odds ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.24; P =0.99). We found a significant association between short-term use of aspirin (<3 months) and the risk of aSAH (odds ratio, 1.61; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.18; P =0.002). No significant difference was found in terms of risk of aSAH for 3 to 12 months, 1 to 3 years, and >3 years of durations of use. No significant association was found between infrequent aspirin use (≤2× per week) or frequent use (≥3× per week) with risk of aSAH. Current evidence suggests that short-term (<3 months) use of aspirin is associated with increased risk of aSAH. Limitations include substantial heterogenity of the included studies. The role of long-term aspirin in reducing risk of aSAH remains unclear and ideally should be addressed by an appropriately designed randomized controlled trial. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Deferasirox for managing transfusional iron overload in people with sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Meerpohl, Joerg J; Schell, Lisa K; Rücker, Gerta; Motschall, Edith; Fleeman, Nigel; Niemeyer, Charlotte M; Bassler, Dirk

2014-05-27

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a group of genetic haemoglobin disorders, that occurs in about 2.2 per 1000 births worldwide. Increasingly, some people with SCD develop secondary iron overload due to occasional red blood cell transfusions or are on long-term transfusion programmes for e.g. secondary stroke prevention. Iron chelation therapy can prevent long-term complications.Deferoxamine and deferiprone have been found to be efficacious. However, questions exist about the effectiveness and safety of the newer oral chelator deferasirox. To assess the effectiveness and safety of oral deferasirox in people with SCD and secondary iron overload. We searched the Cystic Fibrosis & Genetic Disorders Group's Haemoglobinopathies Trials Register: date of most recent search:13 March 2014.We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Biosis Previews, Web of Science, Derwent Drug File, XTOXLINE, EBMR and The Cochrane Library, respectively; date of most recent searches: 02 August 2013.We searched four trial registries: www.controlled-trials.com; www.clinicaltrials.gov; www.who.int./ictrp/en/; www.drks.de; date of most recent searches: 03 June 2013. Randomised controlled trials comparing deferasirox with no therapy or placebo or with another iron chelating treatment schedule. Two authors independently assessed risk of bias and extracted data. We contacted the corresponding study authors for additional information. Two studies (with 203 and 212 people) comparing the efficacy and safety of deferasirox and deferoxamine after 12 months and 24 weeks, respectively, were included. The overall quality, according to GRADE, for the main outcomes was moderate to low. Only limited data were available on mortality and end-organ damage, although one study did assess mortality, relative risk 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.05 to 30.41), the 24-week follow up was too short to allow us to draw firm conclusions. One study reported a relative risk of 1.26 for the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (95% confidence interval 0.05 to 30.41). Serum ferritin reduction was significantly greater with deferoxamine, mean difference of change of 440.69 µg/l (95% confidence interval 11.73 to 869.64). Liver iron concentration (reported in one study) measured by superconduction quantum interference device showed no significant difference for the overall group of patients adjusted for transfusion category, mean difference -0.20 mg Fe/g dry weight (95% confidence interval -3.15 to 2.75).The occurrence of serious adverse events did not differ between drugs. Nausea, diarrhoea and rash occurred significantly more often in people treated with deferasirox, while adverse events of any kind were more often reported for patients treated with deferoxamine (one study). The mean increase of creatinine was also significantly higher with deferasirox, mean difference 3.24 (95% confidence interval 0.45 to 6.03). Long-term adverse events could not be measured in the included studies (follow up 52 weeks and 24 weeks). Patient satisfaction and the likelihood of continuing treatment, were significantly better with deferasirox. Deferasirox appears to be of similar efficacy to deferoxamine depending on depending on the appropriate ratio of doses of deferoxamine and deferasirox being compared. However, only limited evidence is available assessing the efficacy regarding patient-important outcomes. The short-term safety of deferasirox seems to be acceptable, however, follow up in the available studies was too short to assess long-term side effects. Long-term safety and efficacy data are available from a non-controlled extension phase not included in our review; however, no valid comparative conclusions can be drawn and future studies should assess comparatively long-term outcomes both for safety and efficacy.

Accuracy assessment of percent canopy cover, cover type, and size class

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; S. Bain; R. C. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

Truth for vegetation cover percent and type is obtained from very large-scale photography (VLSP), stand structure as measured by size classes, and vegetation types from a combination of VLSP and ground sampling. We recommend using the Kappa statistic with bootstrap confidence intervals for overall accuracy, and similarly bootstrap confidence intervals for percent...

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz

2013-01-01

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…

SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurdugul, Halil

2009-01-01

This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2017-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

Impact of referral letters on scheduling of hospital appointments: a randomised control trial

PubMed Central

Jiwa, Moyez; Meng, Xingqiong; O’Shea, Carolyn; Magin, Parker; Dadich, Ann; Pillai, Vinita

2014-01-01

Background Communication is essential for triage, but intervention trials to improve it are scarce. Referral Writer (RW), a referral letter software program, enables documentation of clinical data and extracts relevant patient details from clinical software. Aim To evaluate whether specialists are more confident about scheduling appointments when they receive more information in referral letters. Design and setting Single-blind, parallel-groups, controlled design with a 1:1 randomisation. Australian GPs watched video vignettes virtually. Method GPs wrote referral letters after watching vignettes of patients with cancer symptoms. Letter content was scored against a benchmark. The proportions of referral letters triagable by a specialist with confidence, and in which the specialist was confident the patient had potentially life-limiting pathology were determined. Categorical outcomes were tested with χ2 and continuous outcomes with t-tests. A random-effects logistic model assessed the influence of group randomisation (RW versus control), GP demographics, clinical specialty, and specialist referral assessor on specialist confidence in the information provided. Results The intervention (RW) group referred more patients and scored significantly higher on information relayed (mean difference 21.6 [95% confidence intervals {CI} = 20.1 to 23.2]). There was no difference in the proportion of letters for which specialists were confident they had sufficient information for appointment scheduling (RW 77.7% versus control 80.6%, P = 0.16). In the logistic model, limited agreement among specialists contributed substantially to the observed differences in appointment scheduling (P = 35% [95% CI 16% to 59%]). Conclusion In isolation, referral letter templates are unlikely to improve the scheduling of specialist appointments, even when more information is relayed. PMID:24982494

Limited family structure and BRCA gene mutation status in single cases of breast cancer.

PubMed

Weitzel, Jeffrey N; Lagos, Veronica I; Cullinane, Carey A; Gambol, Patricia J; Culver, Julie O; Blazer, Kathleen R; Palomares, Melanie R; Lowstuter, Katrina J; MacDonald, Deborah J

2007-06-20

An autosomal dominant pattern of hereditary breast cancer may be masked by small family size or transmission through males given sex-limited expression. To determine if BRCA gene mutations are more prevalent among single cases of early onset breast cancer in families with limited vs adequate family structure than would be predicted by currently available probability models. A total of 1543 women seen at US high-risk clinics for genetic cancer risk assessment and BRCA gene testing were enrolled in a prospective registry study between April 1997 and February 2007. Three hundred six of these women had breast cancer before age 50 years and no first- or second-degree relatives with breast or ovarian cancers. The main outcome measure was whether family structure, assessed from multigenerational pedigrees, predicts BRCA gene mutation status. Limited family structure was defined as fewer than 2 first- or second-degree female relatives surviving beyond age 45 years in either lineage. Family structure effect and mutation probability by the Couch, Myriad, and BRCAPRO models were assessed with stepwise multiple logistic regression. Model sensitivity and specificity were determined and receiver operating characteristic curves were generated. Family structure was limited in 153 cases (50%). BRCA gene mutations were detected in 13.7% of participants with limited vs 5.2% with adequate family structure. Family structure was a significant predictor of mutation status (odds ratio, 2.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-6.73; P = .02). Although none of the models performed well, receiver operating characteristic analysis indicated that modification of BRCAPRO output by a corrective probability index accounting for family structure was the most accurate BRCA gene mutation status predictor (area under the curve, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.81; P<.001) for single cases of breast cancer. Family structure can affect the accuracy of mutation probability models. Genetic testing guidelines may need to be more inclusive for single cases of breast cancer when the family structure is limited and probability models need to be recreated using limited family history as an actual variable.

Influence of polymorphisms within the methotrexate pathway genes on the toxicity and efficacy of methotrexate in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

PubMed Central

Yanagimachi, Masakatsu; Naruto, Takuya; Hara, Takuma; Kikuchi, Masako; Hara, Ryoki; Miyamae, Takako; Imagawa, Tomoyuki; Mori, Masaaki; Kaneko, Tetsuji; Morita, Satoshi; Goto, Hiroaki; Yokota, Shumpei

2011-01-01

AIMS We investigated whether several polymorphisms within the methotrexate (MTX) pathway genes were related to the toxicity and efficacy of MTX in 92 Japanese patients with articular-type juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). METHODS Eight gene polymorphisms within the MTX pathway genes, namely, RFC, BCRP, MTHFR (two), FPGS, γ-glutamyl hydrolase (GGH; two) and ATIC, were genotyped using TaqMan assays. Liver dysfunction was defined as an increase in alanine transaminase to five times the normal upper limit. Non-responders to MTX were defined as patients refractory to MTX and were therefore treated with biologics. RESULTS The non-TT genotype at GGH T16C was associated with a high risk of liver dysfunction (P = 0.028, odds ratio = 6.90, 95% confidence interval 1.38–34.5), even after adjustment for the duration of MTX treatment. A longer interval from disease onset to treatment (8.5 and 21.3 months, P = 0.029) and rheumatoid factor positivity (P = 0.026, odds ratio = 2.87, 95% confidence interval 1.11–7.39) were associated with lower efficacy of MTX. CONCLUSIONS The non-TT genotype at GGH T16C was associated with a high risk of liver dysfunction, presumably because the C allele of GGH C16T may reduce the activity of GGH. The time interval before MTX treatment and rheumatoid factor positivity were associated with the efficacy of MTX treatment. The pharmacogenetics of the MTX pathway genes affects the toxicity and efficacy of MTX in Japanese JIA patients. PMID:21219404

Pediatric reference intervals for random urine calcium, phosphorus and total protein.

PubMed

Slev, Patricia R; Bunker, Ashley M; Owen, William E; Roberts, William L

2010-09-01

The aim of this study was to establish age appropriate reference intervals for calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P) and total protein (UTP) in random urine samples. All analytes were measured using the Roche MODULAR P analyzer and normalized to creatinine (Cr). Our study cohort consisted of 674 boys and 728 girls between 7 and 17 years old (y.o.), which allowed us to determine the central 95% reference intervals with 90% confidence intervals by non-parametric analysis partitioned by both gender and 2-year age intervals for each analyte [i.e. boys in age group 7-9 years (7-9 boys); girls in age group 7-9 years (7-9 girls), etc.]. Results for the upper limits of the central 95% reference interval were: for Ca/Cr, 0.27 (16,17 y.o.) to 0.46 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the girls and 0.26 (16,17 y.o.) to 0.43 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the boys; for P/Cr, 0.85 (16,17 y.o.) to 1.44 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the girls and 0.87 (16,17 y.o.) to 1.68 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the boys; for UTP/Cr, 0.30 (7-9 y.o.) to 0.34 mg/mg (10-12 y.o.) for the girls and 0.19 (16,17, y.o.) to 0.26 mg/mg (13-15 y.o.) for the boys. Upper reference limits decreased with increasing age, and age was a statistically significant variable for all analytes. Eight separate age- and gender-specific reference intervals are proposed per analyte.

Frequency of depression in type 2 diabetes mellitus and an analysis of predictive factors.

PubMed

Arshad, Abdul Rehman; Alvi, Kamran Yousaf

2016-04-01

To determine frequency of depression in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and to identify predictive factors. The observational study was carried out at 1 Mountain Medical Battalion, Bagh, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan, from June 2013 to May 2014, and comprised type 2 diabetic patients who were not using anti-depressants and did not have history of other psychiatric illnesses. Demographic data, duration of diabetes, presence of hypertension and type of treatment were recorded and body mass index was calculated. Patient Health Questionnaire-9, translated into Urdu, was administered during face-to-face interviews. Scores >5 indicated depression, which was classified into different grades of severity using standard cut-off values. Of the 133 patients, 51(38.35%) were depressed. Depression was mild in 34(26%), moderate in 12(9.6%), moderately severe in 4(2.9%) and severe in 1(0.7%) patient. On univariate binary logistic regression, female gender (odds ratio=3.07; 95% confidence interval = 1.43, 6.59), lesser education (odds ratio = 0.90; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 0.97) shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.80, 0.96) and higher body mass index (odds ratio=1.41; 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.25) were significantly associated with depression. Only shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.90; 95% confidence interval = 0.82, 0.99) remained significant after adjustment for confounders. Age, level of education, glycaemic control and type of treatment did not predict depression. A significant proportion of type 2 diabetics were depressed. Shorter duration of diabetes reliably predicted depression in these patients.

EXACT DISTRIBUTIONS OF INTRACLASS CORRELATION AND CRONBACH'S ALPHA WITH GAUSSIAN DATA AND GENERAL COVARIANCE.

PubMed

Kistner, Emily O; Muller, Keith E

2004-09-01

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact results allow calculating the exact distribution function and other properties of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha, for Gaussian data with any covariance pattern, not just compound symmetry. Probabilities are computed in terms of the distribution function of a weighted sum of independent chi-square random variables. New F approximations for the distribution functions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are much simpler and faster to compute than the exact forms. Assuming the covariance matrix is known, the approximations typically provide sufficient accuracy, even with as few as ten observations. Either the exact or approximate distributions may be used to create confidence intervals around an estimate of reliability. Monte Carlo simulations led to a number of conclusions. Correctly assuming that the covariance matrix is compound symmetric leads to accurate confidence intervals, as was expected from previously known results. However, assuming and estimating a general covariance matrix produces somewhat optimistically narrow confidence intervals with 10 observations. Increasing sample size to 100 gives essentially unbiased coverage. Incorrectly assuming compound symmetry leads to pessimistically large confidence intervals, with pessimism increasing with sample size. In contrast, incorrectly assuming general covariance introduces only a modest optimistic bias in small samples. Hence the new methods seem preferable for creating confidence intervals, except when compound symmetry definitely holds.

A prospective observational cohort study to assess the incidence of acute otitis media among children 0-5 years of age in Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Lanzieri, Tatiana M; Cunha, Clóvis Arns da; Cunha, Rejane B; Arguello, D Fermin; Devadiga, Raghavendra; Sanchez, Nervo; Barria, Eduardo Ortega

To estimate acute otitis media incidence among young children and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers in a southern Brazilian city. Prospective cohort study including children 0-5 years of age registered at a private pediatric practice. Acute otitis media episodes diagnosed by a pediatrician and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers were assessed during a 12-month follow-up. During September 2008-March 2010, of 1,136 children enrolled in the study, 1074 (95%) were followed: 55.0% were ≤2 years of age, 52.3% males, 94.7% white, and 69.2% had previously received pneumococcal vaccine in private clinics. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 95.7 (95% confidence interval: 77.2-117.4) overall, 105.5 (95% confidence interval: 78.3-139.0) in children ≤2 years of age and 63.6 (95% confidence interval: 43.2-90.3) in children 3-5 years of age. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 86.3 (95% confidence interval: 65.5-111.5) and 117.1 (95% confidence interval: 80.1-165.3) among vaccinated and unvaccinated children, respectively. Nearly 68.9% of parents reported worsening of their overall quality of life. Acute otitis media incidence among unvaccinated children in our study may be useful as baseline data to assess impact of pneumococcal vaccine introduction in the Brazilian National Immunization Program in April 2010. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for gametocyte carriage in uncomplicated falciparum malaria in children before and after artemisinin-based combination treatments.

PubMed

Sowunmi, Akintunde; Okuboyejo, Titilope M; Gbotosho, Grace O; Happi, Christian T

2011-01-01

Artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) are the recommended first-line antimalarials globally, but their influence on the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage has had little evaluation in endemic areas. The risk factors associated with gametocytaemia at presentation and after ACTs were evaluated in 835 children assigned to artesunate, artesunate-amodiaquine, artesunate-mefloquine or artemether-lumefantrine. Gametocyte carriage at enrolment was 8.4%. During follow-up, 24 patients (2.8%) developed gametocytaemia, which in 83% (20 patients) had developed by day 7 following treatment. In a multiple regression model, 2 factors were independent risk factors for the presence of gametocytaemia at enrolment, namely age <3 years (adjusted odds ratio 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01-4.05; p = 0.04) and enrolment before 2009 (adjusted odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 2.09-8.44; p < 0.001). Haematocrit <25% and parasitaemia <50,000/μl blood were associated with an increased risk of gametocytaemia. Following treatment, 3 factors were independent risk factors for gametocytaemia, namely gametocytaemia at enrolment (adjusted odds ratio 46.39, 95% confidence interval 22.3-96.46; p < 0.0001) and treatment with artesunate (adjusted odds ratio 6.74, 95% confidence interval 1.79-25.27; p = 0.005) or artesunate-mefloquine (adjusted odds ratio 9.66, 95% confidence interval 2.87-32.46; p < 0.0.0001) relative to other ACTs. ACTs modified the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage after use. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Weighted regression analysis and interval estimators

Treesearch

Donald W. Seegrist

1974-01-01

A method for deriving the weighted least squares estimators for the parameters of a multiple regression model. Confidence intervals for expected values, and prediction intervals for the means of future samples are given.

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of the Tamarisk Leaf Beetle (Diorhabda carinulata) on the diet of insectivorous birds along the Dolores River in Southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puckett, Sarah L.; van Riper, Charles

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of a biologic control agent, the tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), on native avifauna in southwestern Colorado, specifically, addressing whether and to what degree birds eat tamarisk leaf beetles. In 2010, we documented avian foraging behavior, characterized the arthropod community, sampled bird diets, and undertook an experiment to determine whether tamarisk leaf beetles are palatable to birds. We observed that tamarisk leaf beetles compose 24.0 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 19.9-27.4 percent) and 35.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 32.4-45.1 percent) of arthropod abundance and biomass in the study area, respectively. Birds ate few tamarisk leaf beetles, despite a superabundance of D. carinulata in the environment. The frequency of occurrence of tamarisk leaf beetles in bird diets was 2.1 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 1.3- 2.9 percent) by abundance and 3.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 2.6-4.2 percent) by biomass. Thus, tamarisk leaf beetles probably do not contribute significantly to the diets of birds in areas where biologic control of tamarisk is being applied.

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents after a hurricane.

PubMed

Garrison, C Z; Weinrich, M W; Hardin, S B; Weinrich, S; Wang, L

1993-10-01

A school-based study conducted in 1990, 1 year after Hurricane Hugo, investigated the frequency and correlates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 1,264 adolescents aged 11-17 years residing in selected South Carolina communities. Data were collected via a 174-item self-administered questionnaire that included a PTSD symptom scale. A computer algorithm that applied decision rules of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised to the symptoms reported was used to assign a diagnosis of PTSD and to designate the number of individuals who met the reexperiencing (20%), avoidance (9%), and arousal (18%) criteria. Rates of PTSD were lowest in black males (1.5%) and higher, but similar, in the remaining groups (3.8-6.2%). Results from a multivariable logistic model indicated that exposure to the hurricane (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.41), experiencing other violent traumatic events (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.75-3.44), being white (OR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.69) and being female (OR = 2.17, 95% confidence interval 1.15-4.10) were significant correlates of PTSD.

Bendectin and human congenital malformations.

PubMed

Shiono, P H; Klebanoff, M A

1989-08-01

The relationship between Bendectin exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy and the occurrence of congenital malformations was prospectively studied in 31,564 newborns registered in the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Birth Defects Study. The odds ratio for any major malformation and Bendectin use was 1.0 (95% confidence interval 0.8-1.4). There were 58 categories of congenital malformations; three of them were statistically associated with Bendectin exposure (microcephaly--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.8-15.6; congenital cataract--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.2-24.3; lung malformations (ICD-8 codes 484.4-484.8)--odds ratio = 4.6, 95% confidence interval = 1.9-10.9). This is exactly the number of associations that would be expected by chance. An independent study (the Collaborative Perinatal Project) was used to determine whether vomiting during pregnancy in the absence of Bendectin use was associated with these three malformations. Two of the three (microcephaly and cataract) had strong positive associations with vomiting in the absence of Bendectin use. We conclude that there is no increase in the overall rate of major malformations after exposure to Bendectin and that the three associations found between Bendectin and individual malformations are unlikely to be causal.

BRIEF REPORT: Screening Items to Identify Patients with Limited Health Literacy Skills

PubMed Central

Wallace, Lorraine S; Rogers, Edwin S; Roskos, Steven E; Holiday, David B; Weiss, Barry D

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND Patients with limited literacy skills are routinely encountered in clinical practice, but they are not always identified by clinicians. OBJECTIVE To evaluate 3 candidate questions to determine their accuracy in identifying patients with limited or marginal health literacy skills. METHODS We studied 305 English-speaking adults attending a university-based primary care clinic. Demographic items, health literacy screening questions, and the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine (REALM) were administered to patients. To determine the accuracy of the candidate questions for identifying limited or marginal health literacy skills, we plotted area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves for each item, using REALM scores as a reference standard. RESULTS The mean age of subjects was 49.5; 67.5% were female, 85.2% Caucasian, and 81.3% insured by TennCare and/or Medicare. Fifty-four (17.7%) had limited and 52 (17.0%) had marginal health literacy skills. One screening question, “How confident are you filling out medical forms by yourself?” was accurate in detecting limited (AUROC of 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.77 to 0.86) and limited/marginal (AUROC of 0.79; 95% CI=0.74 to 0.83) health literacy skills. This question had significantly greater AUROC than either of the other questions (P<.01) and also a greater AUROC than questions based on demographic characteristics. CONCLUSIONS One screening question may be sufficient for detecting limited and marginal health literacy skills in clinic populations. PMID:16881950

Characteristics of antibiotic prophylaxis and risk of surgical site infections in open colectomies

PubMed Central

Poeran, Jashvant; Wasserman, Isaac; Zubizarreta, Nicole; Mazumdar, Madhu

2016-01-01

Background Despite numerous trials assessing optimal antibiotic prophylaxis strategies for colorectal surgery, few studies have assessed real-world practice on a national scale with respect to risk of surgical site infections. Objective Using a large, national claims database we aimed to describe 1) current use of prophylactic antibiotics (type and duration) and 2) associations with surgical site infection after open colectomies. Design Retrospective study using the Premier Perspective database. Setting Patient hospitalizations nationwide from January 2006 to December 2013. Patients 90,725 patients that underwent an open colectomy in 445 different hospitals. Main Outcome Measures Multilevel multivariable logistic regressions measured associations between surgical site infection and 1) type of antibiotic used and 2) duration (day of surgery only, day of surgery and the day after, >1 day after surgery). Results Overall surgical site infection prevalence was 5.2% (n=4,750). Most patients (41.8%) received cefoxitin for prophylaxis; other choices were ertapenem (18.2%), cefotetan (10.3%), metronidazole+cefazolin (9.9%), ampicillin+sulbactam (7.6%), while 12.2% received other antibiotics. Distribution of prophylaxis duration was: 51.6%, 28.5%, and 19.9% for days 0, 0+1, and 1+, respectively. Compared to cefoxitin, lower odds for surgical site infection were observed for ampicillin+sulbactam (odds ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.63–0.82), ertapenem (odds ratio 0.65; 95% confidence interval 0.58–0.71) and metronidazole+cefazolin (odds ratio 0.56; 95% confidence interval 0.49–0.64), and “other” (odds ratio 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.73–0.90); duration was not significantly associated with altered odds for surgical site infection. Sensitivity analyses supported the main findings. Limitations Lack of detailed clinical information in the billing dataset used. Conclusions In this national study assessing real-world use of prophylactic antibiotics in open colectomies, type of antibiotic used appeared to be associated with up to 44% decreased odds for surgical site infections. While there are numerous trials on optimal prophylactic strategies, studies that particularly focus on factors that influence the choice of prophylactic antibiotic might provide insights into ways of reducing the burden of surgical site infections in colorectal surgeries. PMID:27384091

Lacosamide cardiac safety: a thorough QT/QTc trial in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Kropeit, D; Johnson, M; Cawello, W; Rudd, G D; Horstmann, R

2015-11-01

To determine whether lacosamide prolongs the corrected QT interval (QTc). In this randomized, double-blind, positive- and placebo-controlled, parallel-design trial, healthy volunteers were randomized to lacosamide 400 mg/day (maximum-recommended daily dose, 6 days), lacosamide 800 mg/day (supratherapeutic dose, 6 days), placebo (6 days), or moxifloxacin 400 mg/day (3 days). Variables included maximum time-matched change from baseline in QT interval individually corrected for heart rate ([HR] QTcI), other ECG parameters, pharmacokinetics (PK), and safety/tolerability. The QTcI mean maximum difference from placebo was -4.3 ms and -6.3 ms for lacosamide 400 and 800 mg/day; upper limits of the 2-sided 90% confidence interval were below the 10 ms non-inferiority margin (-0.5 and -2.5 ms, respectively). Placebo-corrected QTcI for moxifloxacin was +10.4 ms (lower 90% confidence bound >0 [6.6 ms]), which established assay sensitivity for this trial. As lacosamide did not increase QTcI, the trial is considered a negative QTc trial. There was no dose-related or clinically relevant effect on QRS duration. HR increased from baseline by ~5 bpm with lacosamide 800 mg/day versus placebo. Placebo-subtracted mean increases in PR interval at tmax were 7.3 ms (400 mg/day) and 11.9 ms (800 mg/day). There were no findings of second-degree or higher atrioventricular block. Adverse events (AEs) were dose related and most commonly involved the nervous and gastrointestinal systems. Lacosamide (≤ 800 mg/day) did not prolong the QTc interval. Lacosamide caused a small, dose-related increase in mean PR interval that was not associated with AEs. Cardiac, overall safety, and PK profiles for lacosamide in healthy volunteers were consistent with those observed in patients with partial-onset seizures. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Associations between maternal periconceptional exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and major birth defects.

PubMed

Hoyt, Adrienne T; Canfield, Mark A; Romitti, Paul A; Botto, Lorenzo D; Anderka, Marlene T; Krikov, Sergey V; Tarpey, Morgan K; Feldkamp, Marcia L

2016-11-01

While associations between secondhand smoke and a few birth defects (namely, oral clefts and neural tube defects) have been noted in the scientific literature, to our knowledge, there is no single or comprehensive source of population-based information on its associations with a range of birth defects among nonsmoking mothers. We utilized data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a large population-based multisite case-control study, to examine associations between maternal reports of periconceptional exposure to secondhand smoke in the household or workplace/school and major birth defects. The multisite National Birth Defects Prevention Study is the largest case-control study of birth defects to date in the United States. We selected cases from birth defect groups having >100 total cases, as well as all nonmalformed controls (10,200), from delivery years 1997 through 2009; 44 birth defects were examined. After excluding cases and controls from multiple births and whose mothers reported active smoking or pregestational diabetes, we analyzed data on periconceptional secondhand smoke exposure-encompassing the period 1 month prior to conception through the first trimester. For the birth defect craniosynostosis, we additionally examined the effect of exposure in the second and third trimesters as well due to the potential sensitivity to teratogens for this defect throughout pregnancy. Covariates included in all final models of birth defects with ≥5 exposed mothers were study site, previous live births, time between estimated date of delivery and interview date, maternal age at estimated date of delivery, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, nativity, household income divided by number of people supported by this income, periconceptional alcohol consumption, and folic acid supplementation. For each birth defect examined, we used logistic regression analyses to estimate both crude and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for both isolated and total case groups for various sources of exposure (household only; workplace/school only; household and workplace/school; household or workplace/school). The prevalence of secondhand smoke exposure only across all sources ranged from 12.9-27.8% for cases and 14.5-15.8% for controls. The adjusted odds ratios for any vs no secondhand smoke exposure in the household or workplace/school and isolated birth defects were significantly elevated for neural tube defects (anencephaly: adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.25; and spina bifida: adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.86); orofacial clefts (cleft lip without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.81; cleft lip with or without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.46; cleft palate alone: adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.63); bilateral renal agenesis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.75); amniotic band syndrome-limb body wall complex (adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.51); and atrial septal defects, secundum (adjusted odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.72). There were no significant inverse associations observed. Additional studies replicating the findings are needed to better understand the moderate positive associations observed between periconceptional secondhand smoke and several birth defects in this analysis. Increased odds ratios resulting from chance (eg, multiple comparisons) or recall bias cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Are CT Scans a Satisfactory Substitute for the Follow-Up of RSA Migration Studies of Uncemented Cups? A Comparison of RSA Double Examinations and CT Datasets of 46 Total Hip Arthroplasties

PubMed Central

Zeleznik, Michael P.; Nilsson, Kjell G.; Olivecrona, Henrik

2017-01-01

As part of the 14-year follow-up of a prospectively randomized radiostereometry (RSA) study on uncemented cup fixation, two pairs of stereo radiographs and a CT scan of 46 hips were compared. Tantalum beads, inserted during the primary operation, were detected in the CT volume and the stereo radiographs and used to produce datasets of 3D coordinates. The limit of agreement between the combined CT and RSA datasets was calculated in the same way as the precision of the double RSA examination. The precision of RSA corresponding to the 99% confidence interval was 1.36°, 1.36°, and 0.60° for X-, Y-, and Z-rotation and 0.40, 0.17, and 0.37 mm for X-, Y-, and Z-translation. The limit of agreement between CT and RSA was 1.51°, 2.17°, and 1.05° for rotation and 0.59, 0.56, and 0.74 mm for translation. The differences between CT and RSA are close to the described normal 99% confidence interval for precision in RSA: 0.3° to 2° for rotation and 0.15 to 0.6 mm for translation. We conclude that measurements using CT and RSA are comparable and that CT can be used for migration studies for longitudinal evaluations of patients with RSA markers. PMID:28243598

Melanoma risk prediction using a multilocus genetic risk score in the Women's Health Initiative cohort.

PubMed

Cho, Hyunje G; Ransohoff, Katherine J; Yang, Lingyao; Hedlin, Haley; Assimes, Themistocles; Han, Jiali; Stefanick, Marcia; Tang, Jean Y; Sarin, Kavita Y

2018-07-01

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with melanoma have been identified though genome-wide association studies. However, the combined impact of these SNPs on melanoma development remains unclear, particularly in postmenopausal women who carry a lower melanoma risk. We examine the contribution of a combined polygenic risk score on melanoma development in postmenopausal women. Genetic risk scores were calculated using 21 genome-wide association study-significant SNPs. Their combined effect on melanoma development was evaluated in 19,102 postmenopausal white women in the clinical trial and observational study arms of the Women's Health Initiative dataset. Compared to the tertile of weighted genetic risk score with the lowest genetic risk, the women in the tertile with the highest genetic risk were 1.9 times more likely to develop melanoma (95% confidence interval 1.50-2.42). The incremental change in c-index from adding genetic risk scores to age were 0.075 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.109) for incident melanoma. Limitations include a lack of information on nevi count, Fitzpatrick skin type, family history of melanoma, and potential reporting and selection bias in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. Higher genetic risk is associated with increased melanoma prevalence and incidence in postmenopausal women, but current genetic information may have a limited role in risk prediction when phenotypic information is available. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance-based Physical Functioning and Peripheral Neuropathy in a Population-based Cohort of Women at Midlife

PubMed Central

Ylitalo, Kelly R.; Herman, William H.; Harlow, Siobán D.

2013-01-01

Peripheral neuropathy is underappreciated as a potential cause of functional limitations. In the present article, we assessed the cross-sectional association between peripheral neuropathy and physical functioning and how the longitudinal association between age and functioning differed by neuropathy status. Physical functioning was measured in 1996–2008 using timed performances on stair-climb, walking, sit-to-stand, and balance tests at the Michigan site of the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation, a population-based cohort study of women at midlife (n = 396). Peripheral neuropathy was measured in 2008 and defined as having an abnormal monofilament test result or 4 or more symptoms. We used linear mixed models to determine whether trajectories of physical functioning differed by prevalent neuropathy status. Overall, 27.8% of the women had neuropathy. Stair-climb time differed by neuropathy status (P = 0.04), and for every 1-year increase in age, women with neuropathy had a 1.82% (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 2.21) increase compared with a 0.95% (95% confidence interval: 0.71, 1.20) increase for women without neuropathy. Sit-to-stand time differed by neuropathy status (P = 0.01), but the rate of change did not differ. No differences between neuropathy groups were observed for the walk test. For some performance-based tasks, poor functioning was maintained or exacerbated for women who had prevalent neuropathy. Peripheral neuropathy may play a role in physical functioning limitations and future disability. PMID:23524038

Early Onset of Distress Disorders and High-School Dropout: Prospective Evidence From a National Cohort of Australian Adolescents.

PubMed

Butterworth, Peter; Leach, Liana S

2018-06-01

Prior research examining whether depression and anxiety lead to high-school dropout has been limited by a reliance on retrospective reports, the assessment of mental health at a single point in time (often remote from the time of high-school exit), and the omission of important measures of the social and familial environment. The present study addressed these limitations by analyzing 8 waves of longitudinal data from a cohort of Australian adolescents (n = 1,057) in the Household, Income and Labor Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey (2001-2008). Respondents were followed from the age of 15 years through completion of or exit from high school. Discrete-time survival analysis was used to assess whether the early experience of a distress disorder (indicated by scores <50 on the 5-item Mental Health Inventory from the Short Form Health Survey) predicted subsequent high-school dropout, after controlling for household and parental socioeconomic characteristics and for tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Adolescents with a prior distress disorder had twice the odds of high-school dropout compared with those without (odds ratio = 1.99, 95% confidence interval: 1.24, 3.17). This association was somewhat attenuated but remained significant in models including tobacco and alcohol consumption (odds ratio = 1.74, 95% confidence interval: 1.74; 1.09, 2.78). These results suggest that improving the mental health of high-school students may promote better educational outcomes.

Exercise and insulin resistance in youth: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fedewa, Michael V; Gist, Nicholas H; Evans, Ellen M; Dishman, Rod K

2014-01-01

The prevalence of obesity and diabetes is increasing among children, adolescents, and adults. Although estimates of the efficacy of exercise training on fasting insulin and insulin resistance have been provided, for adults similar estimates have not been provided for youth. This systematic review and meta-analysis provides a quantitative estimate of the effectiveness of exercise training on fasting insulin and insulin resistance in children and adolescents. Potential sources were limited to peer-reviewed articles published before June 25, 2013, and gathered from the PubMed, SPORTDiscus, Physical Education Index, and Web of Science online databases. Analysis was limited to randomized controlled trials by using combinations of the terms adolescent, child, pediatric, youth, exercise training, physical activity, diabetes, insulin, randomized trial, and randomized controlled trial. The authors assessed 546 sources, of which 4.4% (24 studies) were eligible for inclusion. Thirty-two effects were used to estimate the effect of exercise training on fasting insulin, with 15 effects measuring the effect on insulin resistance. Estimated effects were independently calculated by multiple authors, and conflicts were resolved before calculating the overall effect. Based on the cumulative results from these studies, a small to moderate effect was found for exercise training on fasting insulin and improving insulin resistance in youth (Hedges' d effect size = 0.48 [95% confidence interval: 0.22-0.74], P < .001 and 0.31 [95% confidence interval: 0.06-0.56], P < .05, respectively). These results support the use of exercise training in the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes.

Are CT Scans a Satisfactory Substitute for the Follow-Up of RSA Migration Studies of Uncemented Cups? A Comparison of RSA Double Examinations and CT Datasets of 46 Total Hip Arthroplasties.

PubMed

Otten, Volker; Maguire, Gerald Q; Noz, Marilyn E; Zeleznik, Michael P; Nilsson, Kjell G; Olivecrona, Henrik

2017-01-01

As part of the 14-year follow-up of a prospectively randomized radiostereometry (RSA) study on uncemented cup fixation, two pairs of stereo radiographs and a CT scan of 46 hips were compared. Tantalum beads, inserted during the primary operation, were detected in the CT volume and the stereo radiographs and used to produce datasets of 3D coordinates. The limit of agreement between the combined CT and RSA datasets was calculated in the same way as the precision of the double RSA examination. The precision of RSA corresponding to the 99% confidence interval was 1.36°, 1.36°, and 0.60° for X -, Y -, and Z -rotation and 0.40, 0.17, and 0.37 mm for X -, Y -, and Z -translation. The limit of agreement between CT and RSA was 1.51°, 2.17°, and 1.05° for rotation and 0.59, 0.56, and 0.74 mm for translation. The differences between CT and RSA are close to the described normal 99% confidence interval for precision in RSA: 0.3° to 2° for rotation and 0.15 to 0.6 mm for translation. We conclude that measurements using CT and RSA are comparable and that CT can be used for migration studies for longitudinal evaluations of patients with RSA markers.

Treatment of vitiligo with the topical Janus kinase inhibitor ruxolitinib.

PubMed

Rothstein, Brooke; Joshipura, Deep; Saraiya, Ami; Abdat, Rana; Ashkar, Huda; Turkowski, Yana; Sheth, Vaneeta; Huang, Victor; Au, Shiu Chung; Kachuk, Courtney; Dumont, Nicole; Gottlieb, Alice B; Rosmarin, David

2017-06-01

Existing therapies for vitiligo are limited in efficacy and can be associated with undesirable side effects. Topical Janus kinase inhibitors may offer a new therapeutic option for vitiligo. We sought to assess the role of topical ruxolitinib 1.5% cream, a Janus kinase inhibitor, in vitiligo treatment. This 20-week, open-label, proof-of-concept trial of twice-daily topical ruxolitinib 1.5% cream was conducted in 12 patients with a minimum of 1% affected body surface area of vitiligo. The primary outcome was percent improvement in Vitiligo Area Scoring Index from baseline to week 20. Of 12 patients screened, 11 were enrolled and 9 completed the study (54.5% men; mean age, 52 years). Four patients with significant facial involvement at baseline had a 76% improvement in facial Vitiligo Area Scoring Index scores at week 20 (95% confidence interval, 53-99%; P = .001). A 23% improvement in overall Vitiligo Area Scoring Index scores was observed in all enrolled patients at week 20 (95% confidence interval, 4-43%; P = .02). Three of 8 patients responded on body surfaces and 1 of 8 patients responded on acral surfaces. Adverse events were minor, including erythema, hyperpigmentation, and transient acne. Limitations of the study include the small sample size and open-label study design. Topical ruxolitinib 1.5% cream provided significant repigmentation in facial vitiligo and may offer a valuable new treatment for vitiligo. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating effects of limiting factors with regression quantiles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Terrell, J.W.; Schroeder, R.L.

1999-01-01

In a recent Concepts paper in Ecology, Thomson et al. emphasized that assumptions of conventional correlation and regression analyses fundamentally conflict with the ecological concept of limiting factors, and they called for new statistical procedures to address this problem. The analytical issue is that unmeasured factors may be the active limiting constraint and may induce a pattern of unequal variation in the biological response variable through an interaction with the measured factors. Consequently, changes near the maxima, rather than at the center of response distributions, are better estimates of the effects expected when the observed factor is the active limiting constraint. Regression quantiles provide estimates for linear models fit to any part of a response distribution, including near the upper bounds, and require minimal assumptions about the form of the error distribution. Regression quantiles extend the concept of one-sample quantiles to the linear model by solving an optimization problem of minimizing an asymmetric function of absolute errors. Rank-score tests for regression quantiles provide tests of hypotheses and confidence intervals for parameters in linear models with heteroscedastic errors, conditions likely to occur in models of limiting ecological relations. We used selected regression quantiles (e.g., 5th, 10th, ..., 95th) and confidence intervals to test hypotheses that parameters equal zero for estimated changes in average annual acorn biomass due to forest canopy cover of oak (Quercus spp.) and oak species diversity. Regression quantiles also were used to estimate changes in glacier lily (Erythronium grandiflorum) seedling numbers as a function of lily flower numbers, rockiness, and pocket gopher (Thomomys talpoides fossor) activity, data that motivated the query by Thomson et al. for new statistical procedures. Both example applications showed that effects of limiting factors estimated by changes in some upper regression quantile (e.g., 90-95th) were greater than if effects were estimated by changes in the means from standard linear model procedures. Estimating a range of regression quantiles (e.g., 5-95th) provides a comprehensive description of biological response patterns for exploratory and inferential analyses in observational studies of limiting factors, especially when sampling large spatial and temporal scales.

Variation in Hospital Use and Outcomes Associated With Pulmonary Artery Catheterization in Heart Failure in the United States.

PubMed

Khera, Rohan; Pandey, Ambarish; Kumar, Nilay; Singh, Rajeev; Bano, Shah; Golwala, Harsh; Kumbhani, Dharam J; Girotra, Saket; Fonarow, Gregg C

2016-11-01

There has been an increase in the use of pulmonary artery (PA) catheters in heart failure (HF) in the United States in recent years. However, patterns of hospital use and trends in patient outcomes are not known. In the National Inpatient Sample 2001 to 2012, using International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision codes, we identified 11 888 525 adult (≥18 years) HF hospitalizations nationally, of which an estimated 75 209 (SE 0.6%) received a PA catheter. In 2001, the number of hospitals with ≥1 PA catheterization was 1753, decreasing to 1183 in 2011. The mean PA catheter use per hospital trended from 4.9 per year in 2001 (limits 1-133) to 3.8 per year in 2007 (limits 1-46), but increased to 5.5 per year in 2011 (limits 1-70). During 2001 to 2006, PA catheterization declined across hospitals; however, in 2007 to 2012, there was a disproportionate increase at hospitals with large bedsize, teaching programs, and advanced HF capabilities. The overall in-hospital mortality with PA catheter use was higher than without PA catheter use (13.1% versus 3.4%; P<0.0001); however, in propensity-matched analysis, differences in mortality between these groups have attenuated over time-risk-adjusted odds ratio for mortality for PA catheterization, 1.66 (95% confidence interval, 1.60-1.74) in 2001 to 2003 down to 1.04 (95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.12) in 2010 to 2012. There is substantial hospital-level variability in PA catheterization in HF along with increasing volume at fewer hospitals over-represented by large, academic hospitals with advanced HF capabilities. This is accompanied by a decline in excess mortality associated with PA catheterization. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Longitudinal study of astronaut health: Mortality in the years 1959-1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Leif E.

1993-01-01

We conducted a historical cohort study of mortality among 195 astronauts who were exposed to space and medical sources of radiation between 1959 and 1991. Cumulative occupational and medical radiation exposures were obtained from the astronaut radiation exposure history data base. Causes of death were obtained from obligatory death certificates and autopsy reports that were on file in the medical records. A total of 18 deaths occurred during the 32-year follow-up period for which the all-cause standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 142 (95 percent confidence interval 84 225). There was one cancer death in the buccal cavity and pharynegeal ICD-9 rubric whose occurrence was significantly beyond expectation. Mortality for coronary disease was 59 percent lower than expected (2 deaths; SMR = 41; 95 percent confidence limit 5 147). The crude death rate for 10 occupationally related accidents was 400 deaths per 100,000 person-years, which is an order of magnitude greater than accidental death rates in mining industries. The SMR of 1027 for fatal accidents was significantly beyond expectation (14 deaths; 95 percent confidence limit 561 1723) and was similar to SMRs for accidents among aerial pesticide applications. The 10-year cumulative risk of occupational fatalities based on the exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, and linear-exponential distributions was 10 percent. Mortality from motor vehicle accidents was slightly higher than expected but was not significant (1 death; SMR = 145; 95 percent confidence limit 2 808). Radiation exposures from medical procedures accounted for a majority of cumulative dose when compared with space radiation exposures. The results of the study do not confirm the impression that astronauts are at increased risk of cancer, but this does not obviate the need for further study. Overall, it was found that astronauts are at a health disadvantage as a result of catastrophic accidents.

Pulmonary disease in cystic fibrosis: assessment with chest CT at chest radiography dose levels.

PubMed

Ernst, Caroline W; Basten, Ines A; Ilsen, Bart; Buls, Nico; Van Gompel, Gert; De Wachter, Elke; Nieboer, Koenraad H; Verhelle, Filip; Malfroot, Anne; Coomans, Danny; De Maeseneer, Michel; de Mey, Johan

2014-11-01

To investigate a computed tomographic (CT) protocol with iterative reconstruction at conventional radiography dose levels for the assessment of structural lung abnormalities in patients with cystic fibrosis ( CF cystic fibrosis ). In this institutional review board-approved study, 38 patients with CF cystic fibrosis (age range, 6-58 years; 21 patients <18 years and 17 patients >18 years) underwent investigative CT (at minimal exposure settings combined with iterative reconstruction) as a replacement of yearly follow-up posteroanterior chest radiography. Verbal informed consent was obtained from all patients or their parents. CT images were randomized and rated independently by two radiologists with use of the Bhalla scoring system. In addition, mosaic perfusion was evaluated. As reference, the previous available conventional chest CT scan was used. Differences in Bhalla scores were assessed with the χ(2) test and intraclass correlation coefficients ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient s). Radiation doses for CT and radiography were assessed for adults (>18 years) and children (<18 years) separately by using technical dose descriptors and estimated effective dose. Differences in dose were assessed with the Mann-Whitney U test. The median effective dose for the investigative protocol was 0.04 mSv (95% confidence interval [ CI confidence interval ]: 0.034 mSv, 0.10 mSv) for children and 0.05 mSv (95% CI confidence interval : 0.04 mSv, 0.08 mSv) for adults. These doses were much lower than those with conventional CT (median: 0.52 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.31 mSv, 3.90 mSv] for children and 1.12 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.57 mSv, 3.15 mSv] for adults) and of the same order of magnitude as those for conventional radiography (median: 0.012 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.006 mSv, 0.022 mSv] for children and 0.012 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.005 mSv, 0.031 mSv] for adults). All images were rated at least as diagnostically acceptable. Very good agreement was found in overall Bhalla score ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.96) with regard to the severity of bronchiectasis ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.87) and sacculations and abscesses ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.84). Interobserver agreement was excellent ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.86-1). For patients with CF cystic fibrosis , a dedicated chest CT protocol can replace the two yearly follow-up chest radiographic examinations without major dose penalty and with similar diagnostic quality compared with conventional CT.

Nondepressive Psychosocial Factors and CKD Outcomes in Black Americans.

PubMed

Lunyera, Joseph; Davenport, Clemontina A; Bhavsar, Nrupen A; Sims, Mario; Scialla, Julia; Pendergast, Jane; Hall, Rasheeda; Tyson, Crystal C; Russell, Jennifer St Clair; Wang, Wei; Correa, Adolfo; Boulware, L Ebony; Diamantidis, Clarissa J

2018-02-07

Established risk factors for CKD do not fully account for risk of CKD in black Americans. We studied the association of nondepressive psychosocial factors with risk of CKD in the Jackson Heart Study. We used principal component analysis to identify underlying constructs from 12 psychosocial baseline variables (perceived daily, lifetime, and burden of lifetime discrimination; stress; anger in; anger out; hostility; pessimism; John Henryism; spirituality; perceived social status; and social support). Using multivariable models adjusted for demographics and comorbidity, we examined the association of psychosocial variables with baseline CKD prevalence, eGFR decline, and incident CKD during follow-up. Of 3390 (64%) Jackson Heart Study participants with the required data, 656 (19%) had prevalent CKD. Those with CKD (versus no CKD) had lower perceived daily (mean [SD] score =7.6 [8.5] versus 9.7 [9.0]) and lifetime discrimination (2.5 [2.0] versus 3.1 [2.2]), lower perceived stress (4.2 [4.0] versus 5.2 [4.4]), higher hostility (12.1 [5.2] versus 11.5 [4.8]), higher John Henryism (30.0 [4.8] versus 29.7 [4.4]), and higher pessimism (2.3 [2.2] versus 2.0 [2.1]; all P <0.05). Principal component analysis identified three factors from the 12 psychosocial variables: factor 1, life stressors (perceived discrimination, stress); factor 2, moods (anger, hostility); and, factor 3, coping strategies (John Henryism, spirituality, social status, social support). After adjustments, factor 1 (life stressors) was negatively associated with prevalent CKD at baseline among women only: odds ratio, 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.89). After a median follow-up of 8 years, identified psychosocial factors were not significantly associated with eGFR decline (life stressors: β =0.08; 95% confidence interval, -0.02 to 0.17; moods: β =0.03; 95% confidence interval, -0.06 to 0.13; coping: β =-0.02; 95% confidence interval, -0.12 to 0.08) or incident CKD (life stressors: odds ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 1.29; moods: odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.84 to 1.24; coping: odds ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.11). Greater life stressors were associated with lower prevalence of CKD at baseline in the Jackson Heart Study. However, psychosocial factors were not associated with risk of CKD over a median follow-up of 8 years. This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2018_01_03_CJASNPodcast_18_2_L.mp3. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

High Impact = High Statistical Standards? Not Necessarily So

PubMed Central

Tressoldi, Patrizio E.; Giofré, David; Sella, Francesco; Cumming, Geoff

2013-01-01

What are the statistical practices of articles published in journals with a high impact factor? Are there differences compared with articles published in journals with a somewhat lower impact factor that have adopted editorial policies to reduce the impact of limitations of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing? To investigate these questions, the current study analyzed all articles related to psychological, neuropsychological and medical issues, published in 2011 in four journals with high impact factors: Science, Nature, The New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet, and three journals with relatively lower impact factors: Neuropsychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology-Applied and the American Journal of Public Health. Results show that Null Hypothesis Significance Testing without any use of confidence intervals, effect size, prospective power and model estimation, is the prevalent statistical practice used in articles published in Nature, 89%, followed by articles published in Science, 42%. By contrast, in all other journals, both with high and lower impact factors, most articles report confidence intervals and/or effect size measures. We interpreted these differences as consequences of the editorial policies adopted by the journal editors, which are probably the most effective means to improve the statistical practices in journals with high or low impact factors. PMID:23418533

High impact  =  high statistical standards? Not necessarily so.

PubMed

Tressoldi, Patrizio E; Giofré, David; Sella, Francesco; Cumming, Geoff

2013-01-01

What are the statistical practices of articles published in journals with a high impact factor? Are there differences compared with articles published in journals with a somewhat lower impact factor that have adopted editorial policies to reduce the impact of limitations of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing? To investigate these questions, the current study analyzed all articles related to psychological, neuropsychological and medical issues, published in 2011 in four journals with high impact factors: Science, Nature, The New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet, and three journals with relatively lower impact factors: Neuropsychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology-Applied and the American Journal of Public Health. Results show that Null Hypothesis Significance Testing without any use of confidence intervals, effect size, prospective power and model estimation, is the prevalent statistical practice used in articles published in Nature, 89%, followed by articles published in Science, 42%. By contrast, in all other journals, both with high and lower impact factors, most articles report confidence intervals and/or effect size measures. We interpreted these differences as consequences of the editorial policies adopted by the journal editors, which are probably the most effective means to improve the statistical practices in journals with high or low impact factors.

"Magnitude-based inference": a statistical review.

PubMed

Welsh, Alan H; Knight, Emma J

2015-04-01

We consider "magnitude-based inference" and its interpretation by examining in detail its use in the problem of comparing two means. We extract from the spreadsheets, which are provided to users of the analysis (http://www.sportsci.org/), a precise description of how "magnitude-based inference" is implemented. We compare the implemented version of the method with general descriptions of it and interpret the method in familiar statistical terms. We show that "magnitude-based inference" is not a progressive improvement on modern statistics. The additional probabilities introduced are not directly related to the confidence interval but, rather, are interpretable either as P values for two different nonstandard tests (for different null hypotheses) or as approximate Bayesian calculations, which also lead to a type of test. We also discuss sample size calculations associated with "magnitude-based inference" and show that the substantial reduction in sample sizes claimed for the method (30% of the sample size obtained from standard frequentist calculations) is not justifiable so the sample size calculations should not be used. Rather than using "magnitude-based inference," a better solution is to be realistic about the limitations of the data and use either confidence intervals or a fully Bayesian analysis.

An evaluation of the NASA/GSFC Barnes field spectral reflectometer model 14-758, using signal/noise as a measure of utility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, R.; Labovitz, M. L.

1982-07-01

A Barnes field spectral reflectometer which collected information in 373 channels covering the region from 0.4 to 2.5 micrometers was assessed for signal utility. A band was judged unsatisfactory if the probability was 0.1 or greater than its signal to noise ratio was less than eight to one. For each of the bands the probability of a noisy observation was estimated under a binomial assumption from a set of field crop spectra covering an entire growing season. A 95% confidence interval was calculated about each estimate and bands whose lower confidence limits were greater than 0.1 were judged unacceptable. As a result, 283 channels were deemed statistically satisfactory. Excluded channels correspond to portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) where high atmospheric absorption and filter wheel overlap occur. In addition, the analyses uncovered intervals of unsatisfactory detection capability within the blue, red and far infrared regions of vegetation spectra. From the results of the analysis it was recommended that 90 channels monitored by the instrument under consideration be eliminated from future studies. These channels are tabulated and discussed.

The validity of visual acuity assessment using mobile technology devices in the primary care setting.

PubMed

O'Neill, Samuel; McAndrew, Darryl J

2016-04-01

The assessment of visual acuity is indicated in a number of clinical circumstances. It is commonly conducted through the use of a Snellen wall chart. Mobile technology developments and adoption rates by clinicians may potentially provide more convenient methods of assessing visual acuity. Limited data exist on the validity of these devices and applications. The objective of this study was to evaluate the assessment of distance visual acuity using mobile technology devices against the commonly used 3-metre Snellen chart in a primary care setting. A prospective quantitative comparative study was conducted at a regional medical practice. The visual acuity of 60 participants was assessed on a Snellen wall chart and two mobile technology devices (iPhone, iPad). Visual acuity intervals were converted to logarithm of minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) scores and subjected to intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) assessment. The results show a high level of general agreement between testing modality (ICC 0.917 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.887-0.940). The high level of agreement of visual acuity results between the Snellen wall chart and both mobile technology devices suggests that clinicians can use this technology with confidence in the primary care setting.

Fatal Drownings in Fiji.

PubMed

Murray, Kathryn; Carter, Peter

2017-01-01

Drowning is a newly comprehended public health concern in Fiji. Defined as "the process of experiencing respiratory impairment from submersions or immersion in liquid," drowning has been identified as one of Fiji's 5 leading causes of death for those aged 1 to 29 years. The aim of this article was to develop the most parsimonious model that can be used to explain the number of monthly fatal drowning cases in Fiji. Based on a cross-section of 187 drowning incidents from January 2012 to April 2015, this observational study found the number of monthly drownings in Fiji was significantly affected by monthly rainfall ( P = .008, 95% confidence interval = 0.10-0.62) and the number of days comprising public holidays/weekends ( P = .018, 95% confidence interval = 0.06-0.60). Furthermore, the multiple coefficient of determination ( r 2 = .4976) indicated that almost half the variation in drownings was explained by rainfall and public holidays/weekend periods. Inadequate supervision, an inability to identify or carry out safe rescue techniques, and limited water-safety knowledge were identified as common risk factors. To overcome this preventable cause of death, technically guided interventions need to be actively embedded into a range of government policies and community health promotions, disaster management, and education programs.

Cost Analysis of a Novel Enzymatic Debriding Agent for Management of Burn Wounds.

PubMed

Giudice, Giuseppe; Filoni, Angela; Maggio, Giulio; Bonamonte, Domenico; Vestita, Michelangelo

2017-01-01

Introduction . Given its efficacy and safety, NexoBrid™ (NXB) has become part of our therapeutic options in burns treatment with satisfactory results. However, no cost analysis comparing NXB to the standard of care (SOC) has been carried out as of today. Aim . To assess the cost of treatment with NXB and compare it to the SOC cost. Methods . 20 patients with 14-22% of TBSA with an intermediate-deep thermal burn related injury were retrospectively and consecutively included. 10 of these patients were treated with the SOC, while the other 10 with NXB. The cost analysis was performed in accordance with the weighted average Italian Health Ministry DRGs and with Conferenza Stato/Regioni 2003 and the study by Tan et al. For each cost, 95% confidence intervals have been evaluated. Results . Considering the 10 patients treated with NXB, the overall savings (total net saving) amounted to 53300 euros. The confidence interval analysis confirmed the savings. Discussion . As shown by our preliminary results, significant savings are obtained with the use of NXB. The limit of our study is that it is based on Italian health care costs and assesses a relative small cohort of patients. Further studies on larger multinational cohorts are warranted.

Utility of functioning in predicting costs of care for patients with mood and anxiety disorders: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Cieza, Alarcos; Baldwin, David S.

2017-01-01

Development of payment systems for mental health services has been hindered by limited evidence for the utility of diagnosis or symptoms in predicting costs of care. We investigated the utility of functioning information in predicting costs for patients with mood and anxiety disorders. This was a prospective cohort study involving 102 adult patients attending a tertiary referral specialist clinic for mood and anxiety disorders. The main outcome was total costs, calculated by applying unit costs to healthcare use data. After adjusting for covariates, a significant total costs association was yielded for functioning (eβ=1.02; 95% confidence interval: 1.01–1.03), but not depressive symptom severity or anxiety symptom severity. When we accounted for the correlations between the main independent variables by constructing an abridged functioning metric, a significant total costs association was again yielded for functioning (eβ=1.04; 95% confidence interval: 1.01–1.09), but not symptom severity. The utility of functioning in predicting costs for patients with mood and anxiety disorders was supported. Functioning information could be useful within mental health payment systems. PMID:28383309

Parity and risk of lung cancer in women.

PubMed

Paulus, Jessica K; Asomaning, Kofi; Kraft, Peter; Johnson, Bruce E; Lin, Xihong; Christiani, David C

2010-03-01

Patterns of lung cancer incidence suggest that gender-associated factors may influence lung cancer risk. Given the association of parity with risk of some women's cancers, the authors hypothesized that childbearing history may also be associated with lung cancer. Women enrolled in the Lung Cancer Susceptibility Study at Massachusetts General Hospital (Boston, Massachusetts) between 1992 and 2004 (1,004 cases, 848 controls) were available for analysis of the association between parity and lung cancer risk. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. After results were controlled for age and smoking history, women with at least 1 child had 0.71 times the odds of lung cancer as women without children (odds ratio = 0.71, 95% confidence interval: 0.52, 0.97). A significant linear trend was found: Lung cancer risk decreased with increasing numbers of children (P < 0.001). This inverse association was stronger in never smokers (P = 0.12) and was limited to women over age 50 years at diagnosis (P = 0.17). Age at first birth was not associated with risk. The authors observed a protective association between childbearing and lung cancer, adding to existing evidence that reproductive factors may moderate lung cancer risk in women.

Workplace exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and high density lipoprotein cholesterol among nonsmokers.

PubMed

Mizoue, T; Ueda, R; Hino, Y; Yoshimura, T

1999-11-15

There are few epidemiologic studies among adult nonsmokers on the effects of workplace environmental tobacco smoke on high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). The authors investigated this relation, using data from health examinations conducted in 1995 on 3,062 Japanese nonsmokers in a total of 27 municipal offices with few smoking restrictions. Multiple regression analysis with adjustments for age, body mass index, alcohol drinking, and sports activities showed that in women, and in men lacking both alcohol consumption and sports activities characteristics, there were inverse linear relations between workplace smoking indices and HDL-C levels. Multivariate logistic regression showed that nonsmoking women in the upper two thirds of offices ranked by smoking intensity had an increased risk of low HDL-C levels (<45 mg), taking those in the lowest third of offices as reference (the medium third: odds ratio = 1.7; 95% confidence interval: 1.2, 2.5; the highest third: odds ratio = 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 2.4). The results indicated that workplace environmental tobacco smoke exposure is associated with HDL-C among nonsmokers. However, the lack of data on home exposure limits causal inferences about the effects of workplace exposure.

Standard errors and confidence intervals for variable importance in random forest regression, classification, and survival.

PubMed

Ishwaran, Hemant; Lu, Min

2018-06-04

Random forests are a popular nonparametric tree ensemble procedure with broad applications to data analysis. While its widespread popularity stems from its prediction performance, an equally important feature is that it provides a fully nonparametric measure of variable importance (VIMP). A current limitation of VIMP, however, is that no systematic method exists for estimating its variance. As a solution, we propose a subsampling approach that can be used to estimate the variance of VIMP and for constructing confidence intervals. The method is general enough that it can be applied to many useful settings, including regression, classification, and survival problems. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the subsampling estimator and in particular find that the delete-d jackknife variance estimator, a close cousin, is especially effective under low subsampling rates due to its bias correction properties. These 2 estimators are highly competitive when compared with the .164 bootstrap estimator, a modified bootstrap procedure designed to deal with ties in out-of-sample data. Most importantly, subsampling is computationally fast, thus making it especially attractive for big data settings. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Nonprescribed hormone use and self-performed surgeries: "do-it-yourself" transitions in transgender communities in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Rotondi, Nooshin Khobzi; Bauer, Greta R; Scanlon, Kyle; Kaay, Matthias; Travers, Robb; Travers, Anna

2013-10-01

We examined the extent of nonprescribed hormone use and self-performed surgeries among transgender or transsexual (trans) people in Ontario, Canada. We present original survey research from the Trans PULSE Project. A total of 433 participants were recruited from 2009 to 2010 through respondent-driven sampling. We used a case series design to characterize those currently taking nonprescribed hormones and participants who had ever self-performed sex-reassignment surgeries. An estimated 43.0% (95% confidence interval = 34.9, 51.5) of trans Ontarians were currently using hormones; of these, a quarter had ever obtained hormones from nonmedical sources (e.g., friend or relative, street or strangers, Internet pharmacy, herbals or supplements). Fourteen participants (6.4%; 95% confidence interval = 0.8, 9.0) reported currently taking nonprescribed hormones. Five indicated having performed or attempted surgical procedures on themselves (orchiectomy or mastectomy). Past negative experiences with providers, along with limited financial resources and a lack of access to transition-related services, may contribute to nonprescribed hormone use and self-performed surgeries. Promoting training initiatives for health care providers and jurisdictional support for more accessible services may help to address trans people's specific needs.

An evaluation of the NASA/GSFC Barnes field spectral reflecometer model 14-758, using signal/noise as a measure of utility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, R.; Labovitz, M. L.

1982-01-01

A Barnes field spectral reflectometer which collected information in 373 channels covering the region from 0.4 to 2.5 micrometers was assessed for signal utility. A band was judged unsatisfactory if the probability was 0.1 or greater than its signal to noise ratio was less than eight to one. For each of the bands the probability of a noisy observation was estimated under a binomial assumption from a set of field crop spectra covering an entire growing season. A 95% confidence interval was calculated about each estimate and bands whose lower confidence limits were greater than 0.1 were judged unacceptable. As a result, 283 channels were deemed statistically satisfactory. Excluded channels correspond to portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) where high atmospheric absorption and filter wheel overlap occur. In addition, the analyses uncovered intervals of unsatisfactory detection capability within the blue, red and far infrared regions of vegetation spectra. From the results of the analysis it was recommended that 90 channels monitored by the instrument under consideration be eliminated from future studies. These channels are tabulated and discussed.

Serum uric acid and cancer mortality and incidence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dovell, Frances; Boffetta, Paolo

2018-07-01

Elevated serum uric acid (SUA) is a marker of chronic inflammation and has been suggested to be associated with increased risk of cancer, but its antioxidant capacity would justify an anticancer effect. Previous meta-analyses did not include all available results. We conducted a systematic review of prospective studies on SUA level and risk of all cancers and specific cancers, a conducted a meta-analysis based on random-effects models for high versus low SUA level as well as for an increase in 1 mg/dl SUA. The relative risk of all cancers for high versus low SUA level was 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 0.94-1.27; 11 risk estimates); that for a mg/dl increase in SUA level was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.99-1.07). Similar results were obtained for lung cancer (six risk estimates) and colon cancer (four risk estimates). Results for other cancers were sparse. Elevated SUA levels appear to be associated with a modest increase in overall cancer risk, although the combined risk estimate did not reach the formal level of statistical significance. Results for specific cancers were limited and mainly negative.

Confidence Intervals for the Probability of Superiority Effect Size Measure and the Area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruscio, John; Mullen, Tara

2012-01-01

It is good scientific practice to the report an appropriate estimate of effect size and a confidence interval (CI) to indicate the precision with which a population effect was estimated. For comparisons of 2 independent groups, a probability-based effect size estimator (A) that is equal to the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve…

The bacterial meningitis score to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis in children from Sao Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Mekitarian Filho, Eduardo; Horita, Sérgio Massaru; Gilio, Alfredo Elias; Alves, Anna Cláudia Dominguez; Nigrovic, Lise E

2013-09-01

In a retrospective cohort of 494 children with meningitis in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the Bacterial Meningitis Score identified all the children with bacterial meningitis (sensitivity 100%, 95% confidence interval: 92-100% and negative predictive value 100%, 95% confidence interval: 98-100%). Addition of cerebrospinal fluid lactate to the score did not improve clinical prediction rule performance.

Spacecraft utility and the development of confidence intervals for criticality of anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. E.

1980-01-01

The concept of spacecraft utility, a measure of its performance in orbit, is discussed and its formulation is described. Performance is defined in terms of the malfunctions that occur and the criticality to the mission of these malfunctions. Different approaches to establishing average or expected values of criticality are discussed and confidence intervals are developed for parameters used in the computation of utility.

Prevalence Estimates of Complicated Syphilis.

PubMed

Dombrowski, Julia C; Pedersen, Rolf; Marra, Christina M; Kerani, Roxanne P; Golden, Matthew R

2015-12-01

We reviewed 68 cases of possible neurosyphilis among 573 syphilis cases in King County, WA, from 3rd January 2012 to 30th September 2013; 7.9% (95% confidence interval, 5.8%-10.5%) had vision or hearing changes, and 3.5% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-5.4%) had both symptoms and objective confirmation of complicated syphilis with either abnormal cerebrospinal fluid or an abnormal ophthalmologic examination.

A possible simplification for the estimation of area under the curve (AUC₀₋₁₂) of enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium in renal transplant patients receiving tacrolimus.

PubMed

Fleming, Denise H; Mathew, Binu S; Prasanna, Samuel; Annapandian, Vellaichamy M; John, George T

2011-04-01

Enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) is widely used in renal transplantation. With a delayed absorption profile, it has not been possible to develop limited sampling strategies to estimate area under the curve (mycophenolic acid [MPA] AUC₀₋₁₂), which have limited time points and are completed in 2 hours. We developed and validated simplified strategies to estimate MPA AUC₀₋₁₂ in an Indian renal transplant population prescribed EC-MPS together with prednisolone and tacrolimus. Intensive pharmacokinetic sampling (17 samples each) was performed in 18 patients to measure MPA AUC₀₋₁₂. The profiles at 1 month were used to develop the simplified strategies and those at 5.5 months used for validation. We followed two approaches. In one, the AUC was calculated using the trapezoidal rule with fewer time points followed by an extrapolation. In the second approach, by stepwise multiple regression analysis, models with different time points were identified and linear regression analysis performed. Using the trapezoidal rule, two equations were developed with six time points and sampling to 6 or 8 hours (8hrAUC[₀₋₁₂exp]) after the EC-MPS dose. On validation, the 8hrAUC(₀₋₁₂exp) compared with total measured AUC₀₋₁₂ had a coefficient of correlation (r²) of 0.872 with a bias and precision (95% confidence interval) of 0.54% (-6.07-7.15) and 9.73% (5.37-14.09), respectively. Second, limited sampling strategies were developed with four, five, six, seven, and eight time points and completion within 2 hours, 4 hours, 6 hours, and 8 hours after the EC-MPS dose. On validation, six, seven, and eight time point equations, all with sampling to 8 hours, had an acceptable r with the total measured MPA AUC₀₋₁₂ (0.817-0.927). In the six, seven, and eight time points, the bias (95% confidence interval) was 3.00% (-4.59 to 10.59), 0.29% (-5.4 to 5.97), and -0.72% (-5.34 to 3.89) and the precision (95% confidence interval) was 10.59% (5.06-16.13), 8.33% (4.55-12.1), and 6.92% (3.94-9.90), respectively. Of the eight simplified approaches, inclusion of seven or eight time points improved the accuracy of the predicted AUC compared with the actual and can be advocated based on the priority of the user.

Speech and language adverse effects after thalamotomy and deep brain stimulation in patients with movement disorders: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Alomar, Soha; King, Nicolas K K; Tam, Joseph; Bari, Ausaf A; Hamani, Clement; Lozano, Andres M

2017-01-01

The thalamus has been a surgical target for the treatment of various movement disorders. Commonly used therapeutic modalities include ablative and nonablative procedures. A major clinical side effect of thalamic surgery is the appearance of speech problems. This review summarizes the data on the development of speech problems after thalamic surgery. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using nine databases, including Medline, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. We also checked for articles by searching citing and cited articles. We retrieved studies between 1960 and September 2014. Of a total of 2,320 patients, 19.8% (confidence interval: 14.8-25.9) had speech difficulty after thalamotomy. Speech difficulty occurred in 15% (confidence interval: 9.8-22.2) of those treated with a unilaterally and 40.6% (confidence interval: 29.5-52.8) of those treated bilaterally. Speech impairment was noticed 2- to 3-fold more commonly after left-sided procedures (40.7% vs. 15.2%). Of the 572 patients that underwent DBS, 19.4% (confidence interval: 13.1-27.8) experienced speech difficulty. Subgroup analysis revealed that this complication occurs in 10.2% (confidence interval: 7.4-13.9) of patients treated unilaterally and 34.6% (confidence interval: 21.6-50.4) treated bilaterally. After thalamotomy, the risk was higher in Parkinson's patients compared to patients with essential tremor: 19.8% versus 4.5% in the unilateral group and 42.5% versus 13.9% in the bilateral group. After DBS, this rate was higher in essential tremor patients. Both lesioning and stimulation thalamic surgery produce adverse effects on speech. Left-sided and bilateral procedures are approximately 3-fold more likely to cause speech difficulty. This effect was higher after thalamotomy compared to DBS. In the thalamotomy group, the risk was higher in Parkinson's patients, whereas in the DBS group it was higher in patients with essential tremor. Understanding the pathophysiology of speech disturbance after thalamic procedures is a priority. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Outcomes after helicopter versus ground emergency medical services for major trauma--propensity score and instrumental variable analyses: a retrospective nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Tsuchiya, Asuka; Tsutsumi, Yusuke; Yasunaga, Hideo

2016-11-29

Because of a lack of randomized controlled trials and the methodological weakness of currently available observational studies, the benefits of helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) over ground emergency medical services (GEMS) for major trauma patients remain uncertain. The aim of this retrospective nationwide cohort study was to compare the mortality of adults with serious traumatic injuries who were transported by HEMS and GEMS, and to analyze the effects of HEMS in various subpopulations. Using the Japan Trauma Data Bank, we evaluated all adult patients who had an injury severity score ≥ 16 transported by HEMS or GEMS during the daytime between 2004 and 2014. We compared in-hospital mortality between patients transported by HEMS and GEMS using propensity score matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting and instrumental variable analyses to adjust for measured and unmeasured confounding factors. Eligible patients (n = 21,286) from 192 hospitals included 4128 transported by HEMS and 17,158 transported by GEMS. In the propensity score-matched model, there was a significant difference in the in-hospital mortality between HEMS and GEMS groups (22.2 vs. 24.5%, risk difference -2.3% [95% confidence interval, -4.2 to -0.5]; number needed to treat, 43 [95% confidence interval, 24 to 220]). The inverse probability of treatment weighting (20.8% vs. 23.9%; risk difference, -3.9% [95% confidence interval, -5.7 to -2.1]; number needed to treat, 26 [95% confidence interval, 17 to 48]) and instrumental variable analyses showed similar results (risk difference, -6.5% [95% confidence interval, -9.2 to -3.8]; number needed to treat, 15 [95% confidence interval, 11 to 27]). HEMS transport was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality after falls, compression injuries, severe chest injuries, extremity (including pelvic) injuries, and traumatic arrest on arrival to the emergency department. HEMS was associated with a significantly lower mortality than GEMS in adult patients with major traumatic injuries after adjusting for measured and unmeasured confounders.

Determinants of waterpipe use amongst adolescents in Northern Sweden: a survey of use pattern, risk perception, and environmental factors.

PubMed

Ramji, Rathi; Arnetz, Judy; Nilsson, Maria; Jamil, Hikmet; Norström, Fredrik; Maziak, Wasim; Wiklund, Ywonne; Arnetz, Bengt

2015-09-15

Determinants of waterpipe use in adolescents are believed to differ from those for other tobacco products, but there is a lack of studies of possible social, cultural, or psychological aspects of waterpipe use in this population. This study applied a socioecological model to explore waterpipe use, and its relationship to other tobacco use in Swedish adolescents. A total of 106 adolescents who attended an urban high-school in northern Sweden responded to an anonymous questionnaire. Prevalence rates for waterpipe use were examined in relation to socio-demographics, peer pressure, sensation seeking behavior, harm perception, environmental factors, and depression. Thirty-three percent reported ever having smoked waterpipe (ever use), with 30% having done so during the last 30 days (current use). Among waterpipe ever users, 60% had ever smoked cigarettes in comparison to 32% of non-waterpipe smokers (95% confidence interval 1.4-7.9). The odds of having ever smoked waterpipe were three times higher among male high school seniors as well as students with lower grades. Waterpipe ever users had three times higher odds of having higher levels of sensation-seeking (95% confidence interval 1.2-9.5) and scored high on the depression scales (95% confidence interval 1.6-6.8) than non-users. The odds of waterpipe ever use were four times higher for those who perceived waterpipe products to have pleasant smell compared to cigarettes (95% confidence interval 1.7-9.8). Waterpipe ever users were twice as likely to have seen waterpipe use on television compared to non-users (95% confidence interval 1.1-5.7). The odds of having friends who smoked regularly was eight times higher for waterpipe ever users than non-users (95% confidence interval 2.1-31.2). The current study reports a high use of waterpipe in a select group of students in northern Sweden. The study adds the importance of looking at socioecological determinants of use, including peer pressure and exposure to media marketing, as well as mental health among users.

To be involved or not to be involved: a survey of public preferences for self-involvement in decision-making involving mental capacity (competency) within Europe.

PubMed

Daveson, Barbara A; Bausewein, Claudia; Murtagh, Fliss E M; Calanzani, Natalia; Higginson, Irene J; Harding, Richard; Cohen, Joachim; Simon, Steffen T; Deliens, Luc; Bechinger-English, Dorothee; Hall, Sue; Koffman, Jonathan; Ferreira, Pedro Lopes; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Haugen, Dagny F; Gomes, Barbara

2013-05-01

The Council of Europe has recommended that member states of European Union encourage their citizens to make decisions about their healthcare before they lose capacity to do so. However, it is unclear whether the public wants to make such decisions beforehand. To examine public preferences for self-involvement in end-of-life care decision-making and identify associated factors. A population-based survey with 9344 adults in England, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Across countries, 74% preferred self-involvement when capable; 44% preferred self-involvement when incapable through, for example, a living will. Four factors were associated with a preference for self-involvement across capacity and incapacity scenarios, respectively: higher educational attainment ((odds ratio = 1.93-2.77), (odds ratio = 1.33-1.80)); female gender ((odds ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval = 1.14-1.41), (odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.20-1.42)); younger-middle age ((30-59 years: odds ratio = 1.24-1.40), (50-59 years: odds ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.46)) and valuing quality over quantity of life or valuing both equally ((odds ratio = 1.49-1.58), (odds ratio = 1.35-1.53)). Those with increased financial hardship (odds ratio = 0.64-0.83) and a preference to die in hospital (not a palliative care unit) (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.88), a nursing home or residential care (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.54-0.99) were less likely to prefer self-involvement when capable. For the incapacity scenario, single people were more likely to prefer self-involvement (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval = 1.18-1.53). Self-involvement in decision-making is important to the European public. However, a large proportion of the public prefer to not make decisions about their care in advance of incapacity. Financial hardship, educational attainment, age, and preferences regarding quality and quantity of life require further examination; these factors should be considered in relation to policy.

Practice Patterns and Outcomes for Pemetrexed Plus Platinum Doublet as Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Adenocarcinomas of Lung: Looking Beyond the Usual Paradigm.

PubMed

Noronha, V; Zanwar, S; Joshi, A; Patil, V M; Mahajan, A; Janu, A; Agarwal, J P; Bhargava, P; Kapoor, A; Prabhash, K

2018-01-01

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is the standard of care in non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) with locally advanced N2 disease. There is a scarcity of data for the pemetrexed-platinum regimen as NACT. Also, apart from N2 disease, the role of NACT in locally advanced NSCLCs for tumour downstaging is unclear. Non-metastatic adenocarcinomas of lung treated with pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT were analysed. The patients with locoregionally advanced N2 disease and those who were borderline candidates for upfront definitive treatment were planned for NACT after discussion in a multidisciplinary clinic. In total, four cycles of 3-weekly pemetrexed and platinum were delivered in the combined neoadjuvant and adjuvant setting. A response assessment was carried out using RECIST criteria. Progression-free (PFS) and overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Of 114 patients, 96 evaluable patients received NACT with pemetrexed-platinum. The most common indication for NACT was N2 disease at baseline (46.8%). The objective response rate was 36.4% (95% confidence interval 22-52%), including two complete and 32 partial responses, whereas 12.5% of patients had progressive disease on NACT. The median PFS was 14 months (95% confidence interval 10.7-17.3) and the median overall survival was 22 months (95% confidence interval 15.6-28.4) at a median follow-up of 16 months. There was a significant improvement in the overall survival of patients undergoing definitive therapy versus no definitive therapy (median overall survival 25 months [95% confidence interval 19.6-30.4] versus 12 months [95% confidence interval 3.2-20.7], respectively; P = 0.015, hazard ratio 0.56 [95% confidence interval 0.3-0.9]). Among patients who could not undergo definitive chemoradiation upfront due to dosimetric constraints (n = 34), 24 (70.6%) patients finally underwent definitive therapy after NACT. Pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT seems to be an effective option and many borderline cases, where upfront definitive therapy is not feasible, may become amenable to the same after incorporation of NACT. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Provider use of a participatory decision-making style with youth and caregivers and satisfaction with pediatric asthma visits.

PubMed

Sleath, Betsy; Carpenter, Delesha M; Coyne, Imelda; Davis, Scott A; Hayes Watson, Claire; Loughlin, Ceila E; Garcia, Nacire; Reuland, Daniel S; Tudor, Gail E

2018-01-01

We conducted a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of an asthma question prompt list with video intervention to engage the youth during clinic visits. We examined whether the intervention was associated with 1) providers including youth and caregiver inputs more into asthma treatment regimens, 2) youth and caregivers rating providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style, and 3) youth and caregivers being more satisfied with visits. English- or Spanish-speaking youth aged 11-17 years with persistent asthma and their caregivers were recruited from four pediatric clinics and randomized to the intervention or usual care groups. The youth in the intervention group watched the video with their caregivers on an iPad and completed a one-page asthma question prompt list before their clinic visits. All visits were audiotaped. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data. Forty providers and their patients (n=359) participated in this study. Providers included youth input into the asthma management treatment regimens during 2.5% of visits and caregiver input during 3.3% of visits. The youth in the intervention group were significantly more likely to rate their providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style (odds ratio=1.7, 95% confidence interval=1.1, 2.5). White caregivers were significantly more likely to rate the providers as more participatory (odds ratio=2.3, 95% confidence interval=1.2, 4.4). Youth (beta=4.9, 95% confidence interval=3.3, 6.5) and caregivers (beta=7.5, 95% confidence interval=3.1, 12.0) who rated their providers as being more participatory were significantly more satisfied with their visits. Youth (beta=-1.9, 95% confidence interval=-3.4, -0.4) and caregivers (beta=-8.8, 95% confidence interval=-16.2, -1.3) who spoke Spanish at home were less satisfied with visits. The intervention did not increase the inclusion of youth and caregiver inputs into asthma treatment regimens. However, it did increase the youth's perception of participatory decision-making style of the providers, and this in turn was associated with greater satisfaction.

Clinical impact and predictors of complete ST segment resolution after primary percutaneous coronary intervention: A subanalysis of the ATLANTIC Trial.

PubMed

Fabris, Enrico; van 't Hof, Arnoud; Hamm, Christian W; Lapostolle, Frédéric; Lassen, Jens F; Goodman, Shaun G; Ten Berg, Jurriën M; Bolognese, Leonardo; Cequier, Angel; Chettibi, Mohamed; Hammett, Christopher J; Huber, Kurt; Janzon, Magnus; Merkely, Béla; Storey, Robert F; Zeymer, Uwe; Cantor, Warren J; Tsatsaris, Anne; Kerneis, Mathieu; Diallo, Abdourahmane; Vicaut, Eric; Montalescot, Gilles

2017-08-01

In the ATLANTIC (Administration of Ticagrelor in the catheterization laboratory or in the Ambulance for New ST elevation myocardial Infarction to open the Coronary artery) trial the early use of aspirin, anticoagulation, and ticagrelor coupled with very short medical contact-to-balloon times represent good indicators of optimal treatment of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and an ideal setting to explore which factors may influence coronary reperfusion beyond a well-established pre-hospital system. This study sought to evaluate predictors of complete ST-segment resolution after percutaneous coronary intervention in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients enrolled in the ATLANTIC trial. ST-segment analysis was performed on electrocardiograms recorded at the time of inclusion (pre-hospital electrocardiogram), and one hour after percutaneous coronary intervention (post-percutaneous coronary intervention electrocardiogram) by an independent core laboratory. Complete ST-segment resolution was defined as ≥70% ST-segment resolution. Complete ST-segment resolution occurred post-percutaneous coronary intervention in 54.9% ( n=800/1456) of patients and predicted lower 30-day composite major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (odds ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.65; p<0.01), definite stent thrombosis (odds ratio 0.18, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.88; p=0.03), and total mortality (odds ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.97; p=0.04). In multivariate analysis, independent negative predictors of complete ST-segment resolution were the time from symptoms to pre-hospital electrocardiogram (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.98; p<0.01) and diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.83; p<0.01); pre-hospital ticagrelor treatment showed a favorable trend for complete ST-segment resolution (odds ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.51; p=0.06). This study confirmed that post-percutaneous coronary intervention complete ST-segment resolution is a valid surrogate marker for cardiovascular clinical outcomes. In the current era of ST-elevation myocardial infarction reperfusion, patients' delay and diabetes mellitus are independent predictors of poor reperfusion and need specific attention in the future.

Circulating tocopherols and risk of coronary artery disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Guangxiao; Li, Ying; Chen, Xin; Sun, Hao; Hou, Xiaowen; Shi, Jingpu

2016-05-01

Circulating level of tocopherols was supposed to be associated with risk of coronary artery disease. However, the results from previous studies remain controversial. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis based on observational studies to evaluate the association between circulating tocopherols and coronary artery disease risk for the first time. Meta-analysis. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched to retrieve articles published during January 1995 and May 2015. Articles were included if they provided sufficient information to calculate the weighted mean difference and its corresponding 95% confidence interval. Circulating level of total tocopherols was significantly lower in coronary artery disease patients than that in controls (weighted mean difference -4.33 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -6.74 to -1.91, P < 0.01). However, circulating α-tocopherol alone was not significantly associated with coronary artery disease risk. Results from subgroup analyses showed that a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was merely associated with higher coronary artery disease risk in studies with higher sex ratio in cases (<2, weighted mean difference -0.07 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -1.15 to 1.00, P = 0.90; ≥ 2, weighted mean difference -6.00 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.76 to -2.22, P < 0.01). Similarly, a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was associated with early onset coronary artery disease rather than late onset coronary artery disease (<60 years, weighted mean difference -5.40 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.22 to -1.57, P < 0.01; ≥ 60 years, weighted mean difference -1.37 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -3.48 to 0.74, P = 0.20). We also found some discrepancies in circulating total tocopherols when the studies were stratified by matching status and assay methods. Our findings suggest that a deficiency in circulating total tocopherols might be associated with higher coronary artery disease risk. Whereas circulating α-tocopherol alone could not protect us from developing coronary artery disease. Further prospective studies were warranted to confirm our findings. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Garimella, Pranav S; Jaber, Bertrand L; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M; Sarnak, Mark J

2017-01-06

AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery

PubMed Central

Garimella, Pranav S.; Jaber, Bertrand L.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R.; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. Design, setting, participants, & measurements A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on–pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Results Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Conclusions Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. PMID:27797887

Association of CKD with Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

PubMed Central

Kaier, Klaus; Kaleschke, Gerrit; Gebauer, Katrin; Meyborg, Matthias; Malyar, Nasser M.; Freisinger, Eva; Baumgartner, Helmut; Reinecke, Holger; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Despitethe multiple depicted associations of CKD with reduced cardiovascular and overall prognoses, the association of CKD with outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation has still not been well described. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data from all hospitalized patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in Germany were evaluated regarding influence of CKD, even in the earlier stages, on morbidity, in-hospital outcomes, and costs. Results A total of 28,716 patients were treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. A total of 11,189 (39.0%) suffered from CKD. Patients with CKD were predominantly women; had higher rates of comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, heart failure at New York Heart Association 3/4, peripheral artery disease, and diabetes; and had a 1.3-fold higher estimated logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation value. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with CKD stage ≥3 (up to odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.17; P<0.05), bleeding was independently associated with CKD stage ≥4 (up to odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.47 to 2.24; P<0.001), and AKI was independently associated with CKD stages 3 (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 2.06) and 4 (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.83 both P<0.001). The stroke risk, in contrast, was lower for patients with CKD stages 4 (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.33) and 5 (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.39; both P<0.001). Lengths of hospital stay were, on average, 1.2-fold longer, whereas reimbursements were, on average, only 1.03-fold higher in patients who suffered from CKD. Conclusions This analysis illustrates for the first time on a nationwide basis the association of CKD with adverse outcomes in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Thus, classification of CKD stages before transcatheter aortic valve implantation is important for appropriate risk stratification. PMID:28289067

Association of CKD with Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

PubMed

Lüders, Florian; Kaier, Klaus; Kaleschke, Gerrit; Gebauer, Katrin; Meyborg, Matthias; Malyar, Nasser M; Freisinger, Eva; Baumgartner, Helmut; Reinecke, Holger; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-05-08

Despitethe multiple depicted associations of CKD with reduced cardiovascular and overall prognoses, the association of CKD with outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation has still not been well described. Data from all hospitalized patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in Germany were evaluated regarding influence of CKD, even in the earlier stages, on morbidity, in-hospital outcomes, and costs. A total of 28,716 patients were treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. A total of 11,189 (39.0%) suffered from CKD. Patients with CKD were predominantly women; had higher rates of comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, heart failure at New York Heart Association 3/4, peripheral artery disease, and diabetes; and had a 1.3-fold higher estimated logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation value. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with CKD stage ≥3 (up to odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.17; P <0.05), bleeding was independently associated with CKD stage ≥4 (up to odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.47 to 2.24; P <0.001), and AKI was independently associated with CKD stages 3 (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 2.06) and 4 (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.83 both P <0.001). The stroke risk, in contrast, was lower for patients with CKD stages 4 (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.33) and 5 (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.39; both P <0.001). Lengths of hospital stay were, on average, 1.2-fold longer, whereas reimbursements were, on average, only 1.03-fold higher in patients who suffered from CKD. This analysis illustrates for the first time on a nationwide basis the association of CKD with adverse outcomes in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Thus, classification of CKD stages before transcatheter aortic valve implantation is important for appropriate risk stratification. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Epidemiologic Evaluation of Measurement Data in the Presence of Detection Limits

PubMed Central

Lubin, Jay H.; Colt, Joanne S.; Camann, David; Davis, Scott; Cerhan, James R.; Severson, Richard K.; Bernstein, Leslie; Hartge, Patricia

2004-01-01

Quantitative measurements of environmental factors greatly improve the quality of epidemiologic studies but can pose challenges because of the presence of upper or lower detection limits or interfering compounds, which do not allow for precise measured values. We consider the regression of an environmental measurement (dependent variable) on several covariates (independent variables). Various strategies are commonly employed to impute values for interval-measured data, including assignment of one-half the detection limit to nondetected values or of “fill-in” values randomly selected from an appropriate distribution. On the basis of a limited simulation study, we found that the former approach can be biased unless the percentage of measurements below detection limits is small (5–10%). The fill-in approach generally produces unbiased parameter estimates but may produce biased variance estimates and thereby distort inference when 30% or more of the data are below detection limits. Truncated data methods (e.g., Tobit regression) and multiple imputation offer two unbiased approaches for analyzing measurement data with detection limits. If interest resides solely on regression parameters, then Tobit regression can be used. If individualized values for measurements below detection limits are needed for additional analysis, such as relative risk regression or graphical display, then multiple imputation produces unbiased estimates and nominal confidence intervals unless the proportion of missing data is extreme. We illustrate various approaches using measurements of pesticide residues in carpet dust in control subjects from a case–control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. PMID:15579415

Associations of High-Grade Glioma With Glioma Risk Alleles and Histories of Allergy and Smoking

PubMed Central

Lachance, Daniel H.; Yang, Ping; Johnson, Derek R.; Decker, Paul A.; Kollmeyer, Thomas M.; McCoy, Lucie S.; Rice, Terri; Xiao, Yuanyuan; Ali-Osman, Francis; Wang, Frances; Stoddard, Shawn M.; Sprau, Debra J.; Kosel, Matthew L.; Wiencke, John K.; Wiemels, Joseph L.; Patoka, Joseph S.; Davis, Faith; McCarthy, Bridget; Rynearson, Amanda L.; Worra, Joel B.; Fridley, Brooke L.; O’Neill, Brian Patrick; Buckner, Jan C.; Il’yasova, Dora; Jenkins, Robert B.; Wrensch, Margaret R.

2011-01-01

Glioma risk has consistently been inversely associated with allergy history but not with smoking history despite putative biologic plausibility. Data from 855 high-grade glioma cases and 1,160 controls from 4 geographic regions of the United States during 1997–2008 were analyzed for interactions between allergy and smoking histories and inherited variants in 5 established glioma risk regions: 5p15.3 (TERT), 8q24.21 (CCDC26/MLZE), 9p21.3 (CDKN2B), 11q23.3 (PHLDB1/DDX6), and 20q13.3 (RTEL1). The inverse relation between allergy and glioma was stronger among those who did not (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.28, 0.58) versus those who did (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.97; Pinteraction = 0.02) carry the 9p21.3 risk allele. However, the inverse association with allergy was stronger among those who carried (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.44, 95% confidence interval: 0.29, 0.68) versus those who did not carry (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.86) the 20q13.3 glioma risk allele, but this interaction was not statistically significant (P = 0.14). No relation was observed between glioma risk and smoking (odds ratio = 0.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.77, 1.10; P = 0.37), and there were no interactions for glioma risk of smoking history with any of the risk alleles. The authors’ observations are consistent with a recent report that the inherited glioma risk variants in chromosome regions 9p21.3 and 20q13.3 may modify the inverse association of allergy and glioma. PMID:21742680

Gastric dilation-volvulus in dogs attending UK emergency-care veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors and survival.

PubMed

O'Neill, D G; Case, J; Boag, A K; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

2017-11-01

To report prevalence, risk factors and clinical outcomes for presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus diagnosed among an emergency-care population of UK dogs. The study used a cross-sectional design using emergency-care veterinary clinical records from the VetCompass Programme spanning September 1, 2012 to February 28, 2014 and risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression modelling. The study population comprised 77,088 dogs attending 50 Vets Now clinics. Overall, 492 dogs had presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus diagnoses, giving a prevalence of 0·64% (95% Confidence interval: 0·58 to 0·70%). Compared with cross-bred dogs, breeds with the highest odds ratios for the diagnosis of presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus were the great Dane (odds ratio: 114·3, 95% Confidence interval 55·1 to 237·1, P<0·001), akita (odds ratio: 84·4, 95% Confidence interval 33·6 to 211·9, P<0·001) and dogue de Bordeaux (odds ratio: 82·9, 95% Confidence interval 39·0 to 176·3, P<0·001). Odds increased as dogs aged up to 12 years and neutered male dogs had 1·3 (95% Confidence interval 1·0 to 1·8, P=0·041) times the odds compared with entire females. Of the cases that were presented alive, 49·7% survived to discharge overall, but 79·3% of surgical cases survived to discharge. Approximately 80% of surgically managed cases survived to discharge. Certain large breeds were highly predisposed. © 2017 British Small Animal Veterinary Association.

Diagnostic accuracy of intracellular mycobacterium tuberculosis detection for tuberculous meningitis.

PubMed

Feng, Guo-dong; Shi, Ming; Ma, Lei; Chen, Ping; Wang, Bing-ju; Zhang, Min; Chang, Xiao-lin; Su, Xiu-chu; Yang, Yi-ning; Fan, Xin-hong; Dai, Wen; Liu, Ting-ting; He, Ying; Bian, Ting; Duan, Li-xin; Li, Jin-ge; Hao, Xiao-ke; Liu, Jia-yun; Xue, Xin; Song, Yun-zhang; Wu, Hai-qin; Niu, Guo-qiang; Zhang, Li; Han, Cui-juan; Lin, Hong; Lin, Zhi-hui; Liu, Jian-jun; Jian, Qian; Zhang, Jin-she; Tian, Ye; Zhou, Bai-yu; Wang, Jing; Xue, Chang-hu; Han, Xiao-fang; Wang, Jian-feng; Wang, Shou-lian; Thwaites, Guy E; Zhao, Gang

2014-02-15

Early diagnosis and treatment of tuberculous meningitis saves lives, but current laboratory diagnostic tests lack sensitivity. We investigated whether the detection of intracellular bacteria by a modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain and early secretory antigen target (ESAT)-6 in cerebrospinal fluid leukocytes improves tuberculous meningitis diagnosis. Cerebrospinal fluid specimens from patients with suspected tuberculous meningitis were stained by conventional Ziehl-Neelsen stain, a modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain involving cytospin slides with Triton processing, and an ESAT-6 immunocytochemical stain. Acid-fast bacteria and ESAT-6-expressing leukocytes were detected by microscopy. All tests were performed prospectively in a central laboratory by experienced technicians masked to the patients' final diagnosis. Two hundred and eighty patients with suspected tuberculous meningitis were enrolled. Thirty-seven had Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultured from cerebrospinal fluid; 40 had a microbiologically confirmed alternative diagnosis; the rest had probable or possible tuberculous meningitis according to published criteria. Against a clinical diagnostic gold standard the sensitivity of conventional Ziehl-Neelsen stain was 3.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.6-6.7%), compared with 82.9% (95% confidence interval, 77.4-87.3%) for modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain and 75.1% (95% confidence interval, 68.8-80.6%) for ESAT-6 immunostain. Intracellular bacteria were seen in 87.8% of the slides positive by the modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain. The specificity of modified Ziehl-Neelsen and ESAT-6 stain was 85.0% (95% confidence interval, 69.4-93.8%) and 90.0% (95% confidence interval, 75.4-96.7%), respectively. Enhanced bacterial detection by simple modification of the Ziehl-Neelsen stain and an ESAT-6 intracellular stain improve the laboratory diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis.

Dietary acid, age, and serum bicarbonate levels among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Amodu, Afolarin; Abramowitz, Matthew K

2013-12-01

Greater dietary acid has been associated with lower serum bicarbonate levels in patients with CKD. Whether this association extends to the general population and if it is modified by age are unknown. This study examined the association of the dietary acid load, estimated by net endogenous acid production, with serum bicarbonate levels in adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004. The mean serum bicarbonate was 24.9 mEq/L (SEM=0.1), and the mean estimated net endogenous acid production was 57.4 mEq/d (SEM=0.4). Serum bicarbonate was linearly associated with age, such that the oldest participants had the highest serum bicarbonate levels. After multivariable adjustment, participants in the highest quartile of net endogenous acid production had 0.40 mEq/L (95% confidence interval, -0.55 to -0.26) lower serum bicarbonate and a 33% (95% confidence interval, 3 to 72) higher likelihood of acidosis compared with those participants in the lowest quartile. There was a significant interaction by age of the association of net endogenous acid production with serum bicarbonate (P=0.005). Among participants 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 years old, those participants in the highest net endogenous acid production quartile had 0.26 (95% confidence interval, -0.49 to -0.03), 0.60 (95% confidence interval, -0.92 to -0.29), and 0.49 (95% confidence interval, -0.84 to -0.14) mEq/L lower serum bicarbonate, respectively, compared with participants in the lowest quartile. Greater dietary acid is associated with lower serum bicarbonate in the general US population, and the magnitude of this association is greater among middle-aged and elderly persons than younger adults.

Comparative factor analysis of the effect of postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition on recovery of right lobe liver donors.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chia-En; Lin, Kuo-Hua; Lin, Chia-Cheng; Hwu, Yueh-Juen; Lin, Ping-Yi; Lin, Hui-Chuan; Ko, Chih-Jan; Wang, Su-Han; Chen, Yao-Li

2015-04-01

Intensive nutritional support can reduce the catabolic response, improve protein synthesis, and promote liver regeneration. This study examined whether postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition may improve recovery and reduce the length of hospital stay in right lobe liver donors. In this retrospective study, we enrolled liver donors with residual liver volume < 50%. Donors were classified into 2 groups: donors who received (n = 44) or did not receive (n = 40) postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition. Liver function tests included alanine aminotransferase and total bilirubin levels, and postoperative complications included pleural effusion, atelectasis, and wound complications. Hospital length of stay was included as a potential risk factor for the evaluation of the effect of postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition on recovery of right lobe liver donors. Male sex (β, 22.04; 95% confidence interval: 6.22 - 37.86) was a significant predictor of changes in postoperative alanine aminotransferase level. Male sex (β, 0.045; 95% confidence interval: 0.16 - 37.86) and receipt of peripheral parenteral nutrition (β, -0.045; 95% confidence interval: -0.72 - 0.17) were significant predictors of changes in total bilirubin level. Postoperative atelectasis (P < .001), pleural effusion (P < .011), and total complications (P = .015) had significantly lower incidence in the peripheral parenteral nutrition than control group. Multivariate logistic regression showed that recipients of peripheral parenteral nutrition (odds ratio, 0.161; 95% confidence interval: 0.043 - 0.598) and age (odds ratio, 0.870; 95% confidence interval: 0.782 - 0.968) were significant preoperative risk factors for postoperative complications. Postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition is associated with a lower incidence of pleural effusion and atelectasis, a more rapid recovery of hyperbilirubinemia, and shorter length of stay in right lobe liver donors.

Intrauterine fetal death and risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery.

PubMed

Larsen, Sandra; Dobbin, Joanna; McCallion, Oliver; Eskild, Anne

2016-12-01

Vaginal delivery is recommended after intrauterine fetal death. However, little is known about the risk of shoulder dystocia in these deliveries. We studied whether intrauterine fetal death increases the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery. In this population-based register study using the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, we included all singleton pregnancies with vaginal delivery of offspring in cephalic presentation in Norway during the period 1967-2012 (n = 2 266 118). Risk of shoulder dystocia was estimated as absolute risk (%) and odds ratio with 95% confidence interval. Adjustment was made for offspring birthweight (in grams). We performed sub-analyses within categories of birthweight (<4000 and ≥4000 g) and in pregnancies with maternal diabetes. Shoulder dystocia occurred in 1.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 0.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.0001) (crude odds ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2-4.9). After adjustment for birthweight, the odds ratio was 5.9 (95% confidence interval 4.7-7.4). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g, shoulder dystocia occurred in 14.6% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 2.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 5.9, 95% confidence interval 4.5-7.9). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g and concurrent maternal diabetes, shoulder dystocia occurred in 57.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and 9.6% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 12.6, 95% confidence interval 5.9-26.9). Intrauterine fetal death increased the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery, and the absolute risk of shoulder dystocia was particularly high if offspring birthweight was high and the mother had diabetes. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology after childbirth - A Croatian longitudinal study.

PubMed

Srkalović Imširagić, Azijada; Begić, Dražen; Šimičević, Livija; Bajić, Žarko

2017-02-01

Following childbirth, a vast number of women experience some degree of mood swings, while some experience symptoms of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder. Using a biopsychosocial model, the primary aim of this study was to identify predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder and its symptomatology following childbirth. This observational, longitudinal study included 372 postpartum women. In order to explore biopsychosocial predictors, participants completed several questionnaires 3-5 days after childbirth: the Impact of Events Scale Revised, the Big Five Inventory, The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, breastfeeding practice and social and demographic factors. Six to nine weeks after childbirth, participants re-completed the questionnaires regarding psychiatric symptomatology and breastfeeding practice. Using a multivariate level of analysis, the predictors that increased the likelihood of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the first study phase were: emergency caesarean section (odds ratio 2.48; confidence interval 1.13-5.43) and neuroticism personality trait (odds ratio 1.12; confidence interval 1.05-1.20). The predictor that increased the likelihood of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the second study phase was the baseline Impact of Events Scale Revised score (odds ratio 12.55; confidence interval 4.06-38.81). Predictors that decreased the likelihood of symptomatology at the second study phase were life in a nuclear family (odds ratio 0.27; confidence interval 0.09-0.77) and life in a city (odds ratio 0.29; confidence interval 0.09-0.94). Biopsychosocial theory is applicable to postpartum psychiatric disorders. In addition to screening for depression amongst postpartum women, there is a need to include other postpartum psychiatric symptomatology screenings in routine practice. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The association between the metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score and pulmonary function in non-smoking adults.

PubMed

Yoon, Hyun; Gi, Mi Young; Cha, Ju Ae; Yoo, Chan Uk; Park, Sang Muk

2018-03-01

This study assessed the association of metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score with the predicted forced vital capacity and predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s) values in Korean non-smoking adults. We analysed data obtained from 6684 adults during the 2013-2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. After adjustment for related variables, metabolic syndrome ( p < 0.001) and metabolic syndrome score ( p < 0.001) were found to be inversely associated with the predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 s values. The odds ratios of restrictive pulmonary disease (the predicted forced vital capacity < 80.0% with forced expiratory volume in 1 s/FVC ⩾ 70.0%) by metabolic syndrome score with metabolic syndrome score 0 as a reference group showed no significance for metabolic syndrome score 1 [1.061 (95% confidence interval, 0.755-1.490)] and metabolic syndrome score 2 [1.247 (95% confidence interval, 0.890-1.747)], but showed significant for metabolic syndrome score 3 [1.433 (95% confidence interval, 1.010-2.033)] and metabolic syndrome score ⩾ 4 [1.760 (95% confidence interval, 1.216-2.550)]. In addition, the odds ratio of restrictive pulmonary disease of the metabolic syndrome [1.360 (95% confidence interval, 1.118-1.655)] was significantly higher than those of non-metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score were inversely associated with the predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 s values in Korean non-smoking adults. In addition, metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score were positively associated with the restrictive pulmonary disease.

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam

PubMed Central

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-01-01

Background To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12–15 years of age in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Design Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants 2238 secondary school children. Methods Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Main Outcome Measures Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. Results The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5–26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8–15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (–0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8–28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0–0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2–1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Conclusions Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. PMID:24299145

High definition versus standard definition white light endoscopy for detecting dysplasia in patients with Barrett's esophagus.

PubMed

Sami, S S; Subramanian, V; Butt, W M; Bejkar, G; Coleman, J; Mannath, J; Ragunath, K

2015-01-01

High-definition endoscopy systems provide superior image resolution. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of high definition compared with standard definition endoscopy system for detecting dysplastic lesions in patients with Barrett's esophagus. A retrospective cohort study of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus undergoing routine surveillance was performed. Data were retrieved from the central hospital electronic database. Procedures performed for non-surveillance indications, Barrett's esophagus Prague C0M1 classification with no specialized intestinal metaplasia on histology, patients diagnosed with any dysplasia or cancer on index endoscopy, and procedures using advanced imaging techniques were excluded. Logistic regression models were constructed to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals comparing outcomes with standard definition and high-definition systems. The high definition was superior to standard definition system in targeted detection of all dysplastic lesions (odds ratio 3.27, 95% confidence interval 1.27-8.40) as well as overall dysplasia detected on both random and target biopsies (odds ratio 2.36, 95% confidence interval 1.50-3.72). More non-dysplastic lesions were detected with the high-definition system (odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.33). There was no difference between high definition and standard definition endoscopy in the overall (random and target) high-grade dysplasia or cancers detected (odds ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.83-1.04). Trainee endoscopists, number of biopsies taken, and male sex were all significantly associated with a higher yield for dysplastic lesions. The use of the high-definition endoscopy system is associated with better targeted detection of any dysplasia during routine Barrett's esophagus surveillance. However, high-definition endoscopy cannot replace random biopsies at present time. © 2014 International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam.

PubMed

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-04-01

To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12-15 years of age in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Prospective, cross-sectional study. 2238 secondary school children. Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5-26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8-15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (-0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8-28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0-0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical & Experimental Ophthalmology published by Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd on behalf of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Impact of Time to Treatment Initiation in Patients with Human Papillomavirus-positive and -negative Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Grønhøj, C; Jensen, D; Dehlendorff, C; Nørregaard, C; Andersen, E; Specht, L; Charabi, B; von Buchwald, C

2018-06-01

The distinct difference in disease phenotype of human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) and -negative (HPV-) oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) patients might also be apparent when assessing the effect of time to treatment initiation (TTI). We assessed the overall survival and progression-free survival (PFS) effect from increasing TTI for HPV+ and HPV- OPSCC patients. We examined patients who received curative-intended therapy for OPSCC in eastern Denmark between 2000 and 2014. TTI was the number of days from diagnosis to the initiation of curative treatment. Overall survival and PFS were measured from the start of treatment and estimated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated with Cox proportional hazard regression. At a median follow-up of 3.6 years (interquartile range 1.86-6.07 years), 1177 patients were included (59% HPV+). In the adjusted analysis for the HPV+ and HPV- patient population, TTI influenced overall survival and PFS, most evident in the HPV- group, where TTI >60 days statistically significantly influenced overall survival but not PFS (overall survival: hazard ratio 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.04-2.45; PFS: hazard ratio 1.46; 95% confidence interval 0.96-2.22). For patients with a TTI >60 days in the HPV+ group, TTI affected overall survival and PFS similarly, with slightly lower hazard ratio estimates of 1.44 (95% confidence interval 0.83-2.51) and 1.15 (95% confidence interval 0.70-1.88), respectively. For patients treated for a HPV+ or HPV- OPSCC, TTI affects outcome, with the strongest effect for overall survival among HPV- patients. Reducing TTI is an important tool to improve the prognosis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Gene polymorphisms in folate metabolizing enzymes in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia: effects on methotrexate-related toxicity and survival

PubMed Central

Ongaro, Alessia; De Mattei, Monica; Della Porta, Matteo Giovanni; Rigolin, GianMatteo; Ambrosio, Cristina; Di Raimondo, Francesco; Pellati, Agnese; Masieri, Federica Francesca; Caruso, Angelo; Catozzi, Linda; Gemmati, Donato

2009-01-01

Background The antifolate agent methotrexate is an important component of maintenance therapy in acute lymphoblastic leukemia, although methotrexate-related toxicity is often a reason for interruption of chemotherapy. Prediction of toxicity is difficult because of inter-individual variability susceptibility to antileukemic agents. Methotrexate interferes with folate metabolism leading to depletion of reduced folates. Design and Methods The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of polymorphisms for folate metabolizing enzymes with respect to toxicity and survival in adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with methotrexate maintenance therapy. To this purpose, we evaluated possible associations between genotype and hematologic and non-hematologic toxicity and effects on survival at 2 years of follow-up in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Results Polymorphisms in the genes encoding for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR 677C>T) and in dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR 19 bp deletion) significantly increased the risk of hepatotoxicity in single (odds ratio 5.23, 95% confidence interval 1.13–21.95 and odds ratio 4.57, 95% confidence interval 1.01–20.77, respectively) and in combined analysis (odds ratio 6.82, 95% confidence interval 1.38–33.59). MTHFR 677C>T also increased the risk of leukopenia and gastrointestinal toxicity, whilst thymidylate synthase 28 bp repeat polymorphism increased the risk of anemia (odds ratio 8.48, 95% confidence interval 2.00–36.09). Finally, patients with MTHFR 677TT had a decreased overall survival rate (hazard ratio 2.37, 95% confidence interval 1.46–8.45). Conclusions Genotyping of folate polymorphisms might be useful in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia to optimize methotrexate therapy, reducing the associated toxicity with possible effects on survival. PMID:19648163

The thresholds for statistical and clinical significance – a five-step procedure for evaluation of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Thresholds for statistical significance are insufficiently demonstrated by 95% confidence intervals or P-values when assessing results from randomised clinical trials. First, a P-value only shows the probability of getting a result assuming that the null hypothesis is true and does not reflect the probability of getting a result assuming an alternative hypothesis to the null hypothesis is true. Second, a confidence interval or a P-value showing significance may be caused by multiplicity. Third, statistical significance does not necessarily result in clinical significance. Therefore, assessment of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials deserves more rigour in order to become more valid. Methods Several methodologies for assessing the statistical and clinical significance of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials were considered. Balancing simplicity and comprehensiveness, a simple five-step procedure was developed. Results For a more valid assessment of results from a randomised clinical trial we propose the following five-steps: (1) report the confidence intervals and the exact P-values; (2) report Bayes factor for the primary outcome, being the ratio of the probability that a given trial result is compatible with a ‘null’ effect (corresponding to the P-value) divided by the probability that the trial result is compatible with the intervention effect hypothesised in the sample size calculation; (3) adjust the confidence intervals and the statistical significance threshold if the trial is stopped early or if interim analyses have been conducted; (4) adjust the confidence intervals and the P-values for multiplicity due to number of outcome comparisons; and (5) assess clinical significance of the trial results. Conclusions If the proposed five-step procedure is followed, this may increase the validity of assessments of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials. PMID:24588900

Parental use of sun protection for their children-does skin color matter?

PubMed

Tan, Marcus G; Nag, Shudeshna; Weinstein, Miriam

2018-03-01

Excessive sun exposure during childhood is a risk factor for skin cancer. This study aimed to compare the frequency of ideal sun protection use between parents with lighter- and darker-skinned children and explore their attitudes and beliefs on sun safety and their choice of sun protection. Parents of children aged 6 months to 6 years completed self-administered questionnaires about sun protection practices for their children. Parents assessed their child's Fitzpatrick phototype and were divided into lighter- (Fitzpatrick phototype I-III) and darker-skinned (Fitzpatrick phototype IV-VI) groups. Sun safety guidelines from the Canadian Dermatology Association were used to qualify ideal sun protection. A total of 183 parents were included. Overall, 31 parents (17%) used ideal sun protection for their children. As their children grew older, parents were less likely to use ideal sun protection (odds ratio = 0.69, 95% confidence interval = 0.53-0.90). Parents in the lighter-skinned group were more likely to use ideal sun protection for their children (odds ratio = 7.4, 95% confidence interval = 2.7-20.1), believe that sun exposure was harmful (odds ratio = 17.2, 95% confidence interval = 4.0-74.9), and perceive value in sun protection (odds ratio = 11.4, 95% confidence interval = 3.3-39.0); the darker-skinned group believed that darker skin tones provided more sun protection (odds ratio = 12.4, 95% confidence interval = 6.1-25.4). Ideal parental sun protection efforts are overall low, particularly in parents of darker-skinned children. The identified attitudes toward and beliefs about sun safety may aid in delivery of future sun protection interventions, especially in multiracial populations. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dietary Pattern and Risk of Hodgkin Lymphoma in a Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Epstein, Mara M.; Chang, Ellen T.; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T.; Batista, Julie L.; Ambinder, Richard F.; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E.; Birmann, Brenda M.

2015-01-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997–2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns (“vegetable,” “high meat,” “fruit/low-fat dairy,” “desserts/sweets”) using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. PMID:26182945

Dietary pattern and risk of hodgkin lymphoma in a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Epstein, Mara M; Chang, Ellen T; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T; Batista, Julie L; Ambinder, Richard F; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E; Birmann, Brenda M

2015-09-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997-2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns ("vegetable," "high meat," "fruit/low-fat dairy," "desserts/sweets") using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Educational achievement among long-term survivors of congenital heart defects: a Danish population-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Olsen, Morten; Hjortdal, Vibeke E; Mortensen, Laust H; Christensen, Thomas D; Sørensen, Henrik T; Pedersen, Lars

2011-04-01

Congenital heart defect patients may experience neurodevelopmental impairment. We investigated their educational attainments from basic schooling to higher education. Using administrative databases, we identified all Danish patients with a cardiac defect diagnosis born from 1 January, 1977 to 1 January, 1991 and alive at age 13 years. As a comparison cohort, we randomly sampled 10 persons per patient. We obtained information on educational attainment from Denmark's Database for Labour Market Research. The study population was followed until achievement of educational levels, death, emigration, or 1 January, 2006. We estimated the hazard ratio of attaining given educational levels, conditional on completing preceding levels, using discrete-time Cox regression and adjusting for socio-economic factors. Analyses were repeated for a sub-cohort of patients and controls born at term and without extracardiac defects or chromosomal anomalies. We identified 2986 patients. Their probability of completing compulsory basic schooling was approximately 10% lower than that of control individuals (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.79, ranged from 0.75 to 0.82 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.82). Their subsequent probability of completing secondary school was lower than that of the controls, both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.80) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.86). The probability of attaining a higher degree, conditional on completion of youth education, was affected both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.01) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.92; 95% confidence interval: 0.79-1.07). The probability of educational attainment was reduced among long-term congenital heart defect survivors.

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, W.; Ratkiewicz, A.; Ressler, J. J.

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

Using confidence intervals to evaluate the focus alignment of spectrograph detector arrays.

PubMed

Sawyer, Travis W; Hawkins, Kyle S; Damento, Michael

2017-06-20

High-resolution spectrographs extract detailed spectral information of a sample and are frequently used in astronomy, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy. These instruments employ dispersive elements such as prisms and diffraction gratings to spatially separate different wavelengths of light, which are then detected by a charge-coupled device (CCD) or complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) detector array. Precise alignment along the optical axis (focus position) of the detector array is critical to maximize the instrumental resolution; however, traditional approaches of scanning the detector through focus lack a quantitative measure of precision, limiting the repeatability and relying on one's experience. Here we propose a method to evaluate the focus alignment of spectrograph detector arrays by establishing confidence intervals to measure the alignment precision. We show that propagation of uncertainty can be used to estimate the variance in an alignment, thus providing a quantitative and repeatable means to evaluate the precision and confidence of an alignment. We test the approach by aligning the detector array of a prototype miniature echelle spectrograph. The results indicate that the procedure effectively quantifies alignment precision, enabling one to objectively determine when an alignment has reached an acceptable level. This quantitative approach also provides a foundation for further optimization, including automated alignment. Furthermore, the procedure introduced here can be extended to other alignment techniques that rely on numerically fitting data to a model, providing a general framework for evaluating the precision of alignment methods.

ON COMPUTING UPPER LIMITS TO SOURCE INTENSITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kashyap, Vinay L.; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Van Dyk, David A.

2010-08-10

A common problem in astrophysics is determining how bright a source could be and still not be detected in an observation. Despite the simplicity with which the problem can be stated, the solution involves complicated statistical issues that require careful analysis. In contrast to the more familiar confidence bound, this concept has never been formally analyzed, leading to a great variety of often ad hoc solutions. Here we formulate and describe the problem in a self-consistent manner. Detection significance is usually defined by the acceptable proportion of false positives (background fluctuations that are claimed as detections, or Type I error),more » and we invoke the complementary concept of false negatives (real sources that go undetected, or Type II error), based on the statistical power of a test, to compute an upper limit to the detectable source intensity. To determine the minimum intensity that a source must have for it to be detected, we first define a detection threshold and then compute the probabilities of detecting sources of various intensities at the given threshold. The intensity that corresponds to the specified Type II error probability defines that minimum intensity and is identified as the upper limit. Thus, an upper limit is a characteristic of the detection procedure rather than the strength of any particular source. It should not be confused with confidence intervals or other estimates of source intensity. This is particularly important given the large number of catalogs that are being generated from increasingly sensitive surveys. We discuss, with examples, the differences between these upper limits and confidence bounds. Both measures are useful quantities that should be reported in order to extract the most science from catalogs, though they answer different statistical questions: an upper bound describes an inference range on the source intensity, while an upper limit calibrates the detection process. We provide a recipe for computing upper limits that applies to all detection algorithms.« less

Classical and Bayesian Seismic Yield Estimation: The 1998 Indian and Pakistani Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shumway, R. H.

2001-10-01

- The nuclear tests in May, 1998, in India and Pakistan have stimulated a renewed interest in yield estimation, based on limited data from uncalibrated test sites. We study here the problem of estimating yields using classical and Bayesian methods developed by Shumway (1992), utilizing calibration data from the Semipalatinsk test site and measured magnitudes for the 1998 Indian and Pakistani tests given by Murphy (1998). Calibration is done using multivariate classical or Bayesian linear regression, depending on the availability of measured magnitude-yield data and prior information. Confidence intervals for the classical approach are derived applying an extension of Fieller's method suggested by Brown (1982). In the case where prior information is available, the posterior predictive magnitude densities are inverted to give posterior intervals for yield. Intervals obtained using the joint distribution of magnitudes are comparable to the single-magnitude estimates produced by Murphy (1998) and reinforce the conclusion that the announced yields of the Indian and Pakistani tests were too high.

Classical and Bayesian Seismic Yield Estimation: The 1998 Indian and Pakistani Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shumway, R. H.

The nuclear tests in May, 1998, in India and Pakistan have stimulated a renewed interest in yield estimation, based on limited data from uncalibrated test sites. We study here the problem of estimating yields using classical and Bayesian methods developed by Shumway (1992), utilizing calibration data from the Semipalatinsk test site and measured magnitudes for the 1998 Indian and Pakistani tests given by Murphy (1998). Calibration is done using multivariate classical or Bayesian linear regression, depending on the availability of measured magnitude-yield data and prior information. Confidence intervals for the classical approach are derived applying an extension of Fieller's method suggested by Brown (1982). In the case where prior information is available, the posterior predictive magnitude densities are inverted to give posterior intervals for yield. Intervals obtained using the joint distribution of magnitudes are comparable to the single-magnitude estimates produced by Murphy (1998) and reinforce the conclusion that the announced yields of the Indian and Pakistani tests were too high.

The Locomotion of Mouse Fibroblasts in Tissue Culture

PubMed Central

Gail, Mitchell H.; Boone, Charles W.

1970-01-01

Time-lapse cinematography was used to investigate the motion of mouse fibroblasts in tissue culture. Observations over successive short time intervals revealed a tendency for the cells to persist in their direction of motion from one 2.5 hr time interval to the next. Over 5.0-hr time intervals, however, the direction of motion appeared random. This fact suggested that D, the diffusion constant of a random walk model, might serve to characterize cellular motility if suitably long observation times were used. We therefore investigated the effect of “persistence” on the pure random walk model, and we found theoretically and confirmed experimentally that the motility of a persisting cell could indeed be characterized by an augmented diffusion constant, D*. A method for determining confidence limits on D* was also developed. Thus a random walk model, modified to comprehend the persistence effect, was found to describe the motion of fibroblasts in tissue culture and to provide a numerical measure of cellular motility. PMID:5531614

Proportion of general factor variance in a hierarchical multiple-component measuring instrument: a note on a confidence interval estimation procedure.

PubMed

Raykov, Tenko; Zinbarg, Richard E

2011-05-01

A confidence interval construction procedure for the proportion of explained variance by a hierarchical, general factor in a multi-component measuring instrument is outlined. The method provides point and interval estimates for the proportion of total scale score variance that is accounted for by the general factor, which could be viewed as common to all components. The approach may also be used for testing composite (one-tailed) or simple hypotheses about this proportion, and is illustrated with a pair of examples. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

A Prospective Observational Comparison Between Arm and Wrist Blood Pressure During Scheduled Cesarean Delivery.

PubMed

Sebbag, Ilana; Massey, Simon R; Albert, Arianne Y K; Dube, Alison; Gunka, Vit; Douglas, M Joanne

2015-09-01

Shivering is common during cesarean delivery (CD) under neuraxial anesthesia and may disrupt the measurement of noninvasive blood pressure (BP). BP measured at the wrist may be less affected by shivering. There have been no studies comparing trends in BP measured on the upper arm and wrist. We hypothesized that wrist systolic blood pressure (sBP) would accurately trend with upper arm sBP measurements (agree within a limit of ±10%) in parturients undergoing elective CD under spinal anesthesia or combined spinal-epidural anesthesia. After initiation of spinal anesthesia, BP measurements were obtained simultaneously from the upper arm and wrist on opposite arms. The interval between measurements was 1 to 2 minutes, and data were collected for 20 minutes or until delivery. The primary outcome was agreement in dynamic changes in sBP measurements between the upper arm and the wrist. Bland-Altman plots indicating the levels of agreement between the methods were drawn for baseline measurements, over multiple measurements, and over multiple measurements on percentage change from baseline. Forty-nine patients were recruited and completed the study. The wrist sBP tended to overestimate the upper sBP for both baseline data (sBP bias = 13.4 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval = +10.4 to +16.4 mm Hg) and data obtained over multiple measurements (sBP bias = 12.8 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval = +9.3 to +16.3 mm Hg). For change in sBP from baseline over multiple measurements, the mean difference between the wrist and the arm sBP was -0.2 percentage points (99% limits of agreement -25 to +25 percentage points). The wrist measurement overestimated the reading relative to the upper arm measurement for multiple measurements over time. However, when the time series for each subject was examined for percentage change from baseline, the 2 methods mirrored each other in most cases. Nevertheless, our hypothesis was rejected as the limits of agreement were higher than ±10%. This finding suggests that wrist BP may not be an accurate method of detecting hypotension or hypertension during spinal or combined spinal-epidural anesthesia for CD.

Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

2014-05-01

One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input variable of different ANN structures [3]. The performance of each ANN structure is evaluated by the voting analysis based on eleven criteria, which are the root mean square error (RMSE), the correlation index (R), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the mean percentage error (MPE), the mean percentage error (ME), the percentage volume in errors (VE), the percentage error in peak (MF), the normalized mean bias error (NMBE), the normalized root mean bias error (NRMSE), the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) and the modified Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E1). The next day flow for the test set is calculated using the best ANN structure's model. Consequently, the confidence intervals of various confidence levels for training, evaluation and test sets are compared in order to explore the generalisation dynamics of confidence intervals from training and evaluation sets. [1] H.S. Hippert, C.E. Pedreira, R.C. Souza, "Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: A review and evaluation," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 16, no. 1, 2001, pp. 44-55. [2] G. J. Tsekouras, N.E. Mastorakis, F.D. Kanellos, V.T. Kontargyri, C.D. Tsirekis, I.S. Karanasiou, Ch.N. Elias, A.D. Salis, P.A. Kontaxis, A.A. Gialketsi: "Short term load forecasting in Greek interconnected power system using ANN: Confidence Interval using a novel re-sampling technique with corrective Factor", WSEAS International Conference on Circuits, Systems, Electronics, Control & Signal Processing, (CSECS '10), Vouliagmeni, Athens, Greece, December 29-31, 2010. [3] D. Panagoulia, I. Trichakis, G. J. Tsekouras: "Flow Forecasting via Artificial Neural Networks - A Study for Input Variables conditioned on atmospheric circulation", European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2012 (NH1.1 / AS1.16 - Extreme meteorological and hydrological events induced by severe weather and climate change), Vienna, Austria, 22-27 April 2012.

Comparison between auricular and standard rectal thermometers for the measurement of body temperature in dogs

PubMed Central

Sousa, Marlos G.; Carareto, Roberta; Pereira-Junior, Valdo A.; Aquino, Monally C.C.

2011-01-01

Although the rectal mucosa remains the traditional site for measuring body temperature in dogs, an increasing number of clinicians have been using auricular temperature to estimate core body temperature. In this study, 88 mature healthy dogs had body temperatures measured with auricular and rectal thermometers. The mean temperature and confidence intervals were similar for each method, but Bland-Altman plots showed high biases and limits of agreement unacceptable for clinical purposes. The results indicate that auricular and rectal temperatures should not be interpreted interchangeably. PMID:21731094

Comparison between auricular and standard rectal thermometers for the measurement of body temperature in dogs.

PubMed

Sousa, Marlos G; Carareto, Roberta; Pereira-Junior, Valdo A; Aquino, Monally C C

2011-04-01

Although the rectal mucosa remains the traditional site for measuring body temperature in dogs, an increasing number of clinicians have been using auricular temperature to estimate core body temperature. In this study, 88 mature healthy dogs had body temperatures measured with auricular and rectal thermometers. The mean temperature and confidence intervals were similar for each method, but Bland-Altman plots showed high biases and limits of agreement unacceptable for clinical purposes. The results indicate that auricular and rectal temperatures should not be interpreted interchangeably.

An empirical Bayes approach to analyzing recurring animal surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1989-01-01

Recurring estimates of the size of animal populations are often required by biologists or wildlife managers. Because of cost or other constraints, estimates frequently lack the accuracy desired but cannot readily be improved by additional sampling. This report proposes a statistical method employing empirical Bayes (EB) estimators as alternatives to those customarily used to estimate population size, and evaluates them by a subsampling experiment on waterfowl surveys. EB estimates, especially a simple limited-translation version, were more accurate and provided shorter confidence intervals with greater coverage probabilities than customary estimates.

Statistical inference based on the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator under double-truncation.

PubMed

Emura, Takeshi; Konno, Yoshihiko; Michimae, Hirofumi

2015-07-01

Doubly truncated data consist of samples whose observed values fall between the right- and left- truncation limits. With such samples, the distribution function of interest is estimated using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) that is obtained through a self-consistency algorithm. Owing to the complicated asymptotic distribution of the NPMLE, the bootstrap method has been suggested for statistical inference. This paper proposes a closed-form estimator for the asymptotic covariance function of the NPMLE, which is computationally attractive alternative to bootstrapping. Furthermore, we develop various statistical inference procedures, such as confidence interval, goodness-of-fit tests, and confidence bands to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed covariance estimator. Simulations are performed to compare the proposed method with both the bootstrap and jackknife methods. The methods are illustrated using the childhood cancer dataset.

Limitations of diagnostic precision and predictive utility in the individual case: a challenge for forensic practice.

PubMed

Cooke, David J; Michie, Christine

2010-08-01

Knowledge of group tendencies may not assist accurate predictions in the individual case. This has importance for forensic decision making and for the assessment tools routinely applied in forensic evaluations. In this article, we applied Monte Carlo methods to examine diagnostic agreement with different levels of inter-rater agreement given the distributional characteristics of PCL-R scores. Diagnostic agreement and score agreement were substantially less than expected. In addition, we examined the confidence intervals associated with individual predictions of violent recidivism. On the basis of empirical findings, statistical theory, and logic, we conclude that predictions of future offending cannot be achieved in the individual case with any degree of confidence. We discuss the problems identified in relation to the PCL-R in terms of the broader relevance to all instruments used in forensic decision making.

Razonamiento de Estudiantes Universitarios sobre Variabilidad e Intervalos de Confianza en un Contexto Inferencial Informal = University Students' Reasoning on Variability and Confidence Intervals in Inferential Informal Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inzunsa Cazares, Santiago

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a qualitative research with a group of 15 university students of social sciences on informal inferential reasoning developed in a computer environment on concepts involved in the confidence intervals. The results indicate that students developed a correct reasoning about sampling variability and visualized…

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 52 - Determination of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions From Stationary Sources by Continuous Monitors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean value... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean and... operation when the pollutant concentration at the time for the measurement is zero. 1.6Calibration Drift...

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 52 - Determination of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions From Stationary Sources by Continuous Monitors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean value... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean and... operation when the pollutant concentration at the time for the measurement is zero. 1.6Calibration Drift...

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 52 - Determination of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions From Stationary Sources by Continuous Monitors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean value... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean and... operation when the pollutant concentration at the time for the measurement is zero. 1.6Calibration Drift...

Lower Plasma Fetuin-A Levels Are Associated With a Higher Mortality Risk in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Chen, Xuechen; Zhang, Yuan; Chen, Qian; Li, Qing; Li, Yanping; Ling, Wenhua

2017-11-01

The present study was designed to evaluate the association of circulating fetuin-A with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. We measured plasma fetuin-A in 1620 patients using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. The patients were members of the Guangdong coronary artery disease cohort and were recruited between October 2008 and December 2011. Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between plasma fetuin-A and the risk of mortality. A total of 206 deaths were recorded during a median follow-up of 5.9 years, 146 of whom died from CVD. The hazard ratios for the second and third tertiles of the fetuin-A levels (using the first tertile as a reference) were 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.96) and 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.78) for CVD mortality ( P =0.005) and 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.91) and 0.48 (95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.70) for all-cause mortality ( P <0.001), respectively. Lower plasma fetuin-A levels were associated with an increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality in patients with coronary artery disease independently of traditional CVD risk factors. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Physical activity and mortality: is the association explained by genetic selection?

PubMed

Carlsson, Sofia; Andersson, Tomas; Lichtenstein, Paul; Michaëlsson, Karl; Ahlbom, Anders

2007-08-01

Public health recommendations promote physical activity to improve health and longevity. Recent data suggest that the association between physical activity and mortality may be due to genetic selection. Using data on twins, the authors investigated whether genetic selection explains the association between physical activity and mortality. Data were based on a postal questionnaire answered by 13,109 Swedish twin pairs in 1972. The national Cause of Death Register was used for information about all-cause mortality (n=1,800) and cardiovascular disease mortality (n=638) during 1975-2004. The risk of death was reduced by 34% for men (relative risk=0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 0.83) and by 25% for women (relative risk=0.75, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 1.14) reporting high physical activity levels. Within-pair comparisons of monozygotic twins showed that, compared with their less active co-twin, the more active twin had a 20% (odds ratio=0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.65, 0.99) reduced risk of all-cause mortality and a 32% (odds ratio=0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.49, 0.95) reduced risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. Results indicate that physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of mortality not due to genetic selection. This finding supports a causal link between physical activity and mortality.

The role of fire-return interval and season of burn in snag dynamics in a south Florida slash pine forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lloyd, John D.; Slater, Gary L.; Snyder, James R.

2012-01-01

Standing dead trees, or snags, are an important habitat element for many animal species. In many ecosystems, fire is a primary driver of snag population dynamics because it can both create and consume snags. The objective of this study was to examine how variation in two key components of the fire regime—fire-return interval and season of burn—affected population dynamics of snags. Using a factorial design, we exposed 1 ha plots, located within larger burn units in a south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Little and Dorman) forest, to prescribed fire applied at two intervals (approximately 3-year intervals vs. approximately 6-year intervals) and during two seasons (wet season vs. dry season) over a 12- to 13-year period. We found no consistent effect of fire season or frequency on the density of lightly to moderately decayed or heavily decayed snags, suggesting that variation in these elements of the fire regime at the scale we considered is relatively unimportant in the dynamics of snag populations. However, our confidence in these findings is limited by small sample sizes, potentially confounding effects of unmeasured variation in fire behavior and effects (e.g., intensity, severity, synergy with drought cycles) and wide variation in responses within a treatment level. The generalizing of our findings is also limited by the narrow range of treatment levels considered. Future experiments incorporating a wider range of fire regimes and directly quantifying fire intensity would prove useful in identifying more clearly the role of fire in shaping the dynamics of snag populations.

Oxygen Saturation Targets in Preterm Infants and Outcomes at 18–24 Months: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Manja, Veena; Saugstad, Ola D.

2017-01-01

CONTEXT: The optimal oxygen saturation target for extremely preterm infants remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review evidence evaluating the effect of lower (85%–89%) versus higher (91%–95%) pulse oxygen saturation (Spo2) target on mortality and neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) at 18 to 24 months. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases and all published randomized trials evaluating lower versus higher Spo2 target in preterm infants. STUDY SELECTION: A total of 2896 relevant citations were identified; 5 trials were included in the final analysis. DATA EXTRACTION: Data from 5 trials were analyzed for quality of evidence and risk of bias. LIMITATIONS: Limitations include heterogeneity in age at enrollment and comorbidities between trials and change in oximeter algorithm midway through 3 trials. RESULTS: There was no difference in the incidence of primary outcome (death/NDI at 18–24 months) in the 2 groups; risk ratio,1.05, 95% confidence interval 0.98–1.12, P = .18. Mortality before 18 to 24 months was higher in the lower-target group (risk ratio,1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.03–1.31, P = .02). Rates of NDI and severe visual loss did not differ between the 2 groups. Proportion of time infants spent outside the target range while on supplemental oxygen ranged from 8.2% to 27.4% <85% and 8.1% to 22.4% >95% with significant overlap between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: There was no difference in primary outcome between the 2 Spo2 target groups. The collective data suggest that risks associated with restricting the upper Spo2 target limit to 89% outweigh the benefits. The quality of evidence was moderate. We speculate that a wider target range (lower alarm limit, 89% and upper, 96%) may increase time spent within range, but the safety profile of this approach remains to be determined. PMID:27940510

Influence of polymorphisms within the methotrexate pathway genes on the toxicity and efficacy of methotrexate in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

PubMed

Yanagimachi, Masakatsu; Naruto, Takuya; Hara, Takuma; Kikuchi, Masako; Hara, Ryoki; Miyamae, Takako; Imagawa, Tomoyuki; Mori, Masaaki; Kaneko, Tetsuji; Morita, Satoshi; Goto, Hiroaki; Yokota, Shumpei

2011-02-01

We investigated whether several polymorphisms within the methotrexate (MTX) pathway genes were related to the toxicity and efficacy of MTX in 92 Japanese patients with articular-type juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Eight gene polymorphisms within the MTX pathway genes, namely, RFC, BCRP, MTHFR (two), FPGS, γ-glutamyl hydrolase (GGH; two) and ATIC, were genotyped using TaqMan assays. Liver dysfunction was defined as an increase in alanine transaminase to five times the normal upper limit. Non-responders to MTX were defined as patients refractory to MTX and were therefore treated with biologics. The non-TT genotype at GGH T16C was associated with a high risk of liver dysfunction (P=0.028, odds ratio=6.90, 95% confidence interval 1.38-34.5), even after adjustment for the duration of MTX treatment. A longer interval from disease onset to treatment (8.5 and 21.3 months, P=0.029) and rheumatoid factor positivity (P=0.026, odds ratio=2.87, 95% confidence interval 1.11-7.39) were associated with lower efficacy of MTX. The non-TT genotype at GGH T16C was associated with a high risk of liver dysfunction, presumably because the C allele of GGH C16T may reduce the activity of GGH. The time interval before MTX treatment and rheumatoid factor positivity were associated with the efficacy of MTX treatment. The pharmacogenetics of the MTX pathway genes affects the toxicity and efficacy of MTX in Japanese JIA patients. © 2011 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2011 The British Pharmacological Society.

Quantile regression models of animal habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.

2003-01-01

Typically, all factors that limit an organism are not measured and included in statistical models used to investigate relationships with their environment. If important unmeasured variables interact multiplicatively with the measured variables, the statistical models often will have heterogeneous response distributions with unequal variances. Quantile regression is an approach for estimating the conditional quantiles of a response variable distribution in the linear model, providing a more complete view of possible causal relationships between variables in ecological processes. Chapter 1 introduces quantile regression and discusses the ordering characteristics, interval nature, sampling variation, weighting, and interpretation of estimates for homogeneous and heterogeneous regression models. Chapter 2 evaluates performance of quantile rankscore tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). A permutation F test maintained better Type I errors than the Chi-square T test for models with smaller n, greater number of parameters p, and more extreme quantiles τ. Both versions of the test required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when there was heterogeneity under the alternative model. An example application related trout densities to stream channel width:depth. Chapter 3 evaluates a drop in dispersion, F-ratio like permutation test for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). Chapter 4 simulates from a large (N = 10,000) finite population representing grid areas on a landscape to demonstrate various forms of hidden bias that might occur when the effect of a measured habitat variable on some animal was confounded with the effect of another unmeasured variable (spatially and not spatially structured). Depending on whether interactions of the measured habitat and unmeasured variable were negative (interference interactions) or positive (facilitation interactions), either upper (τ > 0.5) or lower (τ < 0.5) quantile regression parameters were less biased than mean rate parameters. Sampling (n = 20 - 300) simulations demonstrated that confidence intervals constructed by inverting rankscore tests provided valid coverage of these biased parameters. Quantile regression was used to estimate effects of physical habitat resources on a bivalve mussel (Macomona liliana) in a New Zealand harbor by modeling the spatial trend surface as a cubic polynomial of location coordinates.

A hierarchical Bayesian GEV model for improving local and regional flood quantile estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; Lall, Upmanu; Troy, Tara; Devineni, Naresh

2016-10-01

We estimate local and regional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters for flood frequency analysis in a multilevel, hierarchical Bayesian framework, to explicitly model and reduce uncertainties. As prior information for the model, we assume that the GEV location and scale parameters for each site come from independent log-normal distributions, whose mean parameter scales with the drainage area. From empirical and theoretical arguments, the shape parameter for each site is shrunk towards a common mean. Non-informative prior distributions are assumed for the hyperparameters and the MCMC method is used to sample from the joint posterior distribution. The model is tested using annual maximum series from 20 streamflow gauges located in an 83,000 km2 flood prone basin in Southeast Brazil. The results show a significant reduction of uncertainty estimates of flood quantile estimates over the traditional GEV model, particularly for sites with shorter records. For return periods within the range of the data (around 50 years), the Bayesian credible intervals for the flood quantiles tend to be narrower than the classical confidence limits based on the delta method. As the return period increases beyond the range of the data, the confidence limits from the delta method become unreliable and the Bayesian credible intervals provide a way to estimate satisfactory confidence bands for the flood quantiles considering parameter uncertainties and regional information. In order to evaluate the applicability of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model for regional flood frequency analysis, we estimate flood quantiles for three randomly chosen out-of-sample sites and compare with classical estimates using the index flood method. The posterior distributions of the scaling law coefficients are used to define the predictive distributions of the GEV location and scale parameters for the out-of-sample sites given only their drainage areas and the posterior distribution of the average shape parameter is taken as the regional predictive distribution for this parameter. While the index flood method does not provide a straightforward way to consider the uncertainties in the index flood and in the regional parameters, the results obtained here show that the proposed Bayesian method is able to produce adequate credible intervals for flood quantiles that are in accordance with empirical estimates.

Reference Value Advisor: a new freeware set of macroinstructions to calculate reference intervals with Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Geffré, Anne; Concordet, Didier; Braun, Jean-Pierre; Trumel, Catherine

2011-03-01

International recommendations for determination of reference intervals have been recently updated, especially for small reference sample groups, and use of the robust method and Box-Cox transformation is now recommended. Unfortunately, these methods are not included in most software programs used for data analysis by clinical laboratories. We have created a set of macroinstructions, named Reference Value Advisor, for use in Microsoft Excel to calculate reference limits applying different methods. For any series of data, Reference Value Advisor calculates reference limits (with 90% confidence intervals [CI]) using a nonparametric method when n≥40 and by parametric and robust methods from native and Box-Cox transformed values; tests normality of distributions using the Anderson-Darling test and outliers using Tukey and Dixon-Reed tests; displays the distribution of values in dot plots and histograms and constructs Q-Q plots for visual inspection of normality; and provides minimal guidelines in the form of comments based on international recommendations. The critical steps in determination of reference intervals are correct selection of as many reference individuals as possible and analysis of specimens in controlled preanalytical and analytical conditions. Computing tools cannot compensate for flaws in selection and size of the reference sample group and handling and analysis of samples. However, if those steps are performed properly, Reference Value Advisor, available as freeware at http://www.biostat.envt.fr/spip/spip.php?article63, permits rapid assessment and comparison of results calculated using different methods, including currently unavailable methods. This allows for selection of the most appropriate method, especially as the program provides the CI of limits. It should be useful in veterinary clinical pathology when only small reference sample groups are available. ©2011 American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology.

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Acute toxicity of diazinon is similar for eight stocks of bobwhite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, E.F.; Camardese, M.B.; Heinz, G.H.; Spann, J.W.; DeBevec, A.B.

1984-01-01

Nine-week-old bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) from eight different game farms were tested for their sensitivity to an acute oral exposure of technical-grade diazinon (phosphorothioic acid O, O-diethyl-O-[6-methyl- 2-(1 -methylethy 1)-4-pyrimidinyl]ester). Extraneous variables associated with interlaboratory differences in husbandry were eliminated by incubating eggs and rearing chicks to test age for all stocks simultaneously in the same facilities at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Under this single set of conditions, the responses of the eight stocks of bobwhite to diazinon were statistically inseparable, with LD50 values varying from 13 mg/kg (95% confidence interval, 8-21 mg/kg) to 17 mg/kg (95% confidence interval, 11-25 mg/kg). The pooled LD50 for the eight stocks was 14.7 mg/kg (95% confidence interval,13.1-16.5 mg/kg).

Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

PubMed

Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

Relationship Between Maximum Tsunami Amplitude and Duration of Signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yoo Yin; Whitmore, Paul M.

2014-12-01

All available tsunami observations at tide gauges situated along the North American coast were examined to determine if there is any clear relationship between maximum amplitude and signal duration. In total, 89 historical tsunami recordings generated by 13 major earthquakes between 1952 and 2011 were investigated. Tidal variations were filtered out of the signal and the duration between the arrival time and the time at which the signals drops and stays below 0.3 m amplitude was computed. The processed tsunami time series were evaluated and a linear least-squares fit with a 95 % confidence interval was examined to compare tsunami durations with maximum tsunami amplitude in the study region. The confidence interval is roughly 20 h over the range of maximum tsunami amplitudes in which we are interested. This relatively large confidence interval likely results from variations in local resonance effects, late-arriving reflections, and other effects.

Return on Investment of a Work-Family Intervention: Evidence From the Work, Family, and Health Network.

PubMed

Barbosa, Carolina; Bray, Jeremy W; Dowd, William N; Mills, Michael J; Moen, Phyllis; Wipfli, Brad; Olson, Ryan; Kelly, Erin L

2015-09-01

To estimate the return on investment (ROI) of a workplace initiative to reduce work-family conflict in a group-randomized 18-month field experiment in an information technology firm in the United States. Intervention resources were micro-costed; benefits included medical costs, productivity (presenteeism), and turnover. Regression models were used to estimate the ROI, and cluster-robust bootstrap was used to calculate its confidence interval. For each participant, model-adjusted costs of the intervention were $690 and company savings were $1850 (2011 prices). The ROI was 1.68 (95% confidence interval, -8.85 to 9.47) and was robust in sensitivity analyses. The positive ROI indicates that employers' investment in an intervention to reduce work-family conflict can enhance their business. Although this was the first study to present a confidence interval for the ROI, results are comparable with the literature.

Predictors of successful closure of patent ductus arteriosus with indomethacin.

PubMed

Ahamed, M F; Verma, P; Lee, S; Vega, M; Wang, D; Kim, M; Fuloria, M

2015-09-01

To determine whether platelet counts can predict the likelihood of successful closure of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) with indomethacin. This was a retrospective cohort study of infants <32 weeks' gestational age (GA) and birth weight <1500 g with PDA. Clinical characteristics between infants who achieved ductal closure with indomethacin and those who failed were compared. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of successful ductal closure. In infants with hemodynamically significant PDA, older GA (odds ratio=1.54; 95% confidence interval: 1.12 to 2.13), male gender (odds ratio=3.02; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 8.49) and higher platelet count (odds ratio=1.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 2.17) prior to indomethacin treatment were associated with successful ductal closure with indomethacin. Older GA, male gender and higher platelet count at time of treatment of hemodynamically significant PDA are predictors of successful ductal closure with indomethacin.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 and Kidney Disease Progression in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Chonchol, Michel; Gitomer, Berenice; Isakova, Tamara; Cai, Xuan; Salusky, Isidro; Pereira, Renata; Abebe, Kaleab; Torres, Vicente; Steinman, Theodor I; Grantham, Jared J; Chapman, Arlene B; Schrier, Robert W; Wolf, Myles

2017-09-07

Increases in fibroblast growth factor 23 precede kidney function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease; however, the role of fibroblast growth factor 23 in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease has not been well characterized. We measured intact fibroblast growth factor 23 levels in baseline serum samples from 1002 participants in the HALT-PKD Study A ( n =540; mean eGFR =91±17 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) and B ( n =462; mean eGFR =48±12 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ). We used linear mixed and Cox proportional hazards models to test associations between fibroblast growth factor 23 and eGFR decline, percentage change in height-adjusted total kidney volume, and composite of time to 50% reduction in eGFR, onset of ESRD, or death. Median (interquartile range) intact fibroblast growth factor 23 was 44 (33-56) pg/ml in HALT-PKD Study A and 69 (50-93) pg/ml in Study B. In adjusted models, annualized eGFR decline was significantly faster in the upper fibroblast growth factor 23 quartile (Study A: quartile 4, -3.62; 95% confidence interval, -4.12 to -3.12 versus quartile 1, -2.51; 95% confidence interval, -2.71 to -2.30 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; P for trend <0.001; Study B: quartile 4, -3.74; 95% confidence interval, -4.14 to -3.34 versus quartile 1, -2.78; 95% confidence interval, -2.92 to -2.63 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; P for trend <0.001). In Study A, higher fibroblast growth factor 23 quartiles were associated with greater longitudinal percentage increase in height-adjusted total kidney volume in adjusted models (quartile 4, 6.76; 95% confidence interval, 5.57 to 7.96 versus quartile 1, 6.04; 95% confidence interval, 5.55 to 6.54; P for trend =0.03). In Study B, compared with the lowest quartile, the highest fibroblast growth factor 23 quartile was associated with elevated risk for the composite outcome (hazard ratio, 3.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.84 to 5.25). Addition of fibroblast growth factor 23 to a model of annualized decline in eGFR≥3.0 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 did not improve risk prediction. Higher serum fibroblast growth factor 23 concentration was associated with kidney function decline, height-adjusted total kidney volume percentage increase, and death in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. However, fibroblast growth factor 23 did not substantially improve prediction of rapid kidney function decline. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Effect of modified bridge exercise on trunk muscle activity in healthy adults: a cross sectional study.

PubMed

Yoon, Jeong-Oh; Kang, Min-Hyeok; Kim, Jun-Seok; Oh, Jae-Seop

This is a cross-sectional study. University research laboratory. Fifteen healthy adults (mean age: 27.47 years) volunteered for this study. The individuals performed standard bridge exercise and modified bridge exercises with right leg-lift (single-leg-lift bridge exercise, single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface, and single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise). During the bridge exercises, electromyography of the rectus abdominis, internal oblique, erector spinae, and multifidus muscles was recorded using a wireless surface electromyography system. Two-way repeated-measures analysis of variance (exercise by side) with post hoc pairwise comparisons using Bonferroni correction was used to compare the electromyography data collected from each muscle. Bilateral internal oblique muscle activities showed significantly greater during single-leg-lift bridge exercise (95% confidence interval: right internal oblique=-8.99 to -1.08, left internal oblique=-6.84 to -0.10), single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface (95% confidence interval: right internal oblique=-7.32 to -1.78, left internal oblique=-5.34 to -0.99), and single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise (95% confidence interval: right internal oblique=-17.13 to -0.89, left internal oblique=-8.56 to -0.60) compared with standard bridge exercise. Bilateral rectus abdominis showed greater electromyography activity during single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface (95% confidence interval: right rectus abdominis=-9.33 to -1.13, left rectus abdominis=-4.80 to -0.64) and single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise (95% confidence interval: right rectus abdominis=-14.12 to -1.84, left rectus abdominis=-6.68 to -0.16) compared with standard bridge exercise. In addition, the right rectus abdominis muscle activity was greater during single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise compared with single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface (95% confidence interval=-7.51 to -0.89). For erector spinae, muscle activity was greater in right side compared with left side during all exercises (95% confidence interval: standard bridge exercise=0.19-4.53, single-leg-lift bridge exercise=0.24-10.49, single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface=0.74-8.55, single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise=0.47-11.43). There was no significant interaction and main effect for multifidus. Adding hip abduction and unstable conditions to bridge exercises may be useful strategy to facilitate the co-activation of trunk muscles. Copyright © 2017 Associação Brasileira de Pesquisa e Pós-Graduação em Fisioterapia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Hypertension Among US Adults by Disability Status and Type, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2001–2010

PubMed Central

Courtney-Long, Elizabeth; Gillespie, Cathleen; Armour, Brian S.

2014-01-01

The prevalence of hypertension among people with disabilities is not well understood. We combined data from the 2001–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to obtain estimates of hypertension prevalence by disability status and type (cognitive, hearing, vision, or mobility limitation) and assess the association between disability and hypertension. Overall, 34% of adults with disabilities had hypertension compared with 27% of adults without disabilities; adults with mobility limitations were more likely to have hypertension than adults without disabilities (adjusted prevalence ratio: 1.23; 95% confidence interval: 1.16–1.32). Our results suggest that adults living with disabilities are an important subpopulation to include in hypertension reporting and intervention efforts. PMID:25121351

Hypertension among US adults by disability status and type, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2001-2010.

PubMed

Stevens, Alissa; Courtney-Long, Elizabeth; Gillespie, Cathleen; Armour, Brian S

2014-08-14

The prevalence of hypertension among people with disabilities is not well understood. We combined data from the 2001-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to obtain estimates of hypertension prevalence by disability status and type (cognitive, hearing, vision, or mobility limitation) and assess the association between disability and hypertension. Overall, 34% of adults with disabilities had hypertension compared with 27% of adults without disabilities; adults with mobility limitations were more likely to have hypertension than adults without disabilities (adjusted prevalence ratio: 1.23; 95% confidence interval: 1.16-1.32). Our results suggest that adults living with disabilities are an important subpopulation to include in hypertension reporting and intervention efforts.

Effective field theory search for high-energy nuclear recoils using the XENON100 dark matter detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aprile, E.; Aalbers, J.; Agostini, F.; Alfonsi, M.; Amaro, F. D.; Anthony, M.; Arneodo, F.; Barrow, P.; Baudis, L.; Bauermeister, B.; Benabderrahmane, M. L.; Berger, T.; Breur, P. A.; Brown, A.; Brown, E.; Bruenner, S.; Bruno, G.; Budnik, R.; Bütikofer, L.; Calvén, J.; Cardoso, J. M. R.; Cervantes, M.; Cichon, D.; Coderre, D.; Colijn, A. P.; Conrad, J.; Cussonneau, J. P.; Decowski, M. P.; de Perio, P.; di Gangi, P.; di Giovanni, A.; Diglio, S.; Eurin, G.; Fei, J.; Ferella, A. D.; Fieguth, A.; Fulgione, W.; Gallo Rosso, A.; Galloway, M.; Gao, F.; Garbini, M.; Geis, C.; Goetzke, L. W.; Greene, Z.; Grignon, C.; Hasterok, C.; Hogenbirk, E.; Itay, R.; Kaminsky, B.; Kazama, S.; Kessler, G.; Kish, A.; Landsman, H.; Lang, R. F.; Lellouch, D.; Levinson, L.; Lin, Q.; Lindemann, S.; Lindner, M.; Lombardi, F.; Lopes, J. A. M.; Manfredini, A.; Maris, I.; Marrodán Undagoitia, T.; Masbou, J.; Massoli, F. V.; Masson, D.; Mayani, D.; Messina, M.; Micheneau, K.; Molinario, A.; Morâ, K.; Murra, M.; Naganoma, J.; Ni, K.; Oberlack, U.; Pakarha, P.; Pelssers, B.; Persiani, R.; Piastra, F.; Pienaar, J.; Pizzella, V.; Piro, M.-C.; Plante, G.; Priel, N.; Rauch, L.; Reichard, S.; Reuter, C.; Rizzo, A.; Rosendahl, S.; Rupp, N.; Dos Santos, J. M. F.; Sartorelli, G.; Scheibelhut, M.; Schindler, S.; Schreiner, J.; Schumann, M.; Scotto Lavina, L.; Selvi, M.; Shagin, P.; Silva, M.; Simgen, H.; Sivers, M. V.; Stein, A.; Thers, D.; Tiseni, A.; Trinchero, G.; Tunnell, C.; Vargas, M.; Wang, H.; Wang, Z.; Wei, Y.; Weinheimer, C.; Wulf, J.; Ye, J.; Zhang., Y.; Farmer, B.; Xenon Collaboration

2017-08-01

We report on weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) search results in the XENON100 detector using a nonrelativistic effective field theory approach. The data from science run II (34 kg ×224.6 live days) were reanalyzed, with an increased recoil energy interval compared to previous analyses, ranging from (6.6 -240 ) keVnr . The data are found to be compatible with the background-only hypothesis. We present 90% confidence level exclusion limits on the coupling constants of WIMP-nucleon effective operators using a binned profile likelihood method. We also consider the case of inelastic WIMP scattering, where incident WIMPs may up-scatter to a higher mass state, and set exclusion limits on this model as well.

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, W. P.; Evans, H. J.; Williamsen, J. E; Boyer, R. L.; Nakayama, G. S.

2005-01-01

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA determines the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the ISS. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. In this paper, we present possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the Shuttle and Station versions of BUMPER II.

Upper limits to the quiet-time solar neutron flux from 10 to 100 MeV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moon, S.; Simnett, G. M.; White, R. S.

1975-01-01

The UCR large area solid-angle double scatter neutron telescope was flown to search for solar neutrons on 3 balloon flights on September 26, 1971, May 14, 1972 and September 19, 1972. The first two flights were launched from Palestine, Texas and the third from Cape Girardeau, Missouri. The float altitude on each flight was at about 5 g/sq cm residual atmosphere. Neutrons from 10 to 100 MeV were measured. No solar flares occurred during the flights. Upper limits to the quiet time solar neutron fluxes at the 95% confidence level are .00028, .00046, .00096 and .00090 neutrons/sq cm-sec in the energy intervals of 10-30, 30-50, 50-100 and 10-100 MeV, respectively.

Possible Health Benefits From Reducing Occupational Magnetic Fields

PubMed Central

Bowman, Joseph D.; Ray, Tapas K.; Park, Robert M.

2015-01-01

Background Magnetic fields (MF) from AC electricity are a Possible Human Carcinogen, based on limited epidemiologic evidence from exposures far below occupational health limits. Methods To help formulate government guidance on occupational MF, the cancer cases prevented and the monetary benefits accruing to society by reducing workplace exposures were determined. Life-table methods produced Disability Adjusted Life Years, which were converted to monetary values. Results Adjusted for probabilities of causality, the expected increase in a worker’s disability-free life are 0.04 year (2 weeks) from a 1 microtesla (μT) MF reduction in average worklife exposure, which is equivalent to $5,100/worker/μT in year 2010 U.S. dollars (95% confidence interval $1,000–$9,000/worker/μT). Where nine electrosteel workers had 13.8 μT exposures, for example, moving them to ambient MFs would provide $600,000 in benefits to society (uncertainty interval $0–$1,000,000). Conclusions When combined with the costs of controls, this analysis provides guidance for precautionary recommendations for managing occupational MF exposures. PMID:23129537

Possible health benefits from reducing occupational magnetic fields.

PubMed

Bowman, Joseph D; Ray, Tapas K; Park, Robert M

2013-07-01

Magnetic fields (MF) from AC electricity are a Possible Human Carcinogen, based on limited epidemiologic evidence from exposures far below occupational health limits. To help formulate government guidance on occupational MF, the cancer cases prevented and the monetary benefits accruing to society by reducing workplace exposures were determined. Life-table methods produced Disability Adjusted Life Years, which were converted to monetary values. Adjusted for probabilities of causality, the expected increase in a worker's disability-free life are 0.04 year (2 weeks) from a 1 microtesla (µT) MF reduction in average worklife exposure, which is equivalent to $5,100/worker/µT in year 2010 U.S. dollars (95% confidence interval $1,000-$9,000/worker/µT). Where nine electrosteel workers had 13.8 µT exposures, for example, moving them to ambient MFs would provide $600,000 in benefits to society (uncertainty interval $0-$1,000,000). When combined with the costs of controls, this analysis provides guidance for precautionary recommendations for managing occupational MF exposures. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Occupational Diesel Exposure, Duration of Employment, and Lung Cancer

PubMed Central

Picciotto, Sally; Costello, Sadie; Eisen, Ellen A.

2016-01-01

Background: If less healthy workers terminate employment earlier, thus accumulating less exposure, yet remain at greater risk of the health outcome, estimated health effects of cumulative exposure will be biased downward. If exposure also affects termination of employment, then the bias cannot be addressed using conventional methods. We examined these conditions as a prelude to a reanalysis of lung cancer mortality in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study. Methods: We applied an accelerated failure time model to assess the effect of exposures to respirable elemental carbon (a surrogate for diesel) on time to termination of employment among nonmetal miners who ever worked underground (n = 8,307). We then applied the parametric g-formula to assess how possible interventions setting respirable elemental carbon exposure limits would have changed lifetime risk of lung cancer, adjusting for time-varying employment status. Results: Median time to termination was 36% shorter (95% confidence interval = 33%, 39%), per interquartile range width increase in respirable elemental carbon exposure. Lung cancer risk decreased with more stringent interventions, with a risk ratio of 0.8 (95% confidence interval = 0.5, 1.1) comparing a limit of ≤25 µg/m3 respirable elemental carbon to no intervention. The fraction of cases attributable to diesel exposure was 27% in this population. Conclusions: The g-formula controlled for time-varying confounding by employment status, the signature of healthy worker survivor bias, which was also affected by diesel exposure. It also offers an alternative approach to risk assessment for estimating excess cumulative risk, and the impact of interventions based entirely on an observed population. PMID:26426944