New Approaches to Robust Confidence Intervals for Location: A Simulation Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

obtain a denominator for the test statistic. Those statistics based on location estimates derived from Hampel’s redescending influence function or v...defined an influence function for a test in terms of the behavior of its P-values when the data are sampled from a model distribution modified by point...proposal could be used for interval estimation as well as hypothesis testing, the extension is immediate. Once an influence function has been defined

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with CKD.

PubMed

Liang, Chih-Chia; Wang, Su-Ming; Kuo, Huey-Liang; Chang, Chiz-Tzung; Liu, Jiung-Hsiun; Lin, Hsin-Hung; Wang, I-Kuan; Yang, Ya-Fei; Lu, Yueh-Ju; Chou, Che-Yi; Huang, Chiu-Ching

2014-08-07

Patients with CKD receiving maintenance dialysis are at risk for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with early CKD who are not receiving dialysis is unknown. The hypothesis was that their risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding is negatively linked to renal function. To test this hypothesis, the association between eGFR and risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with stages 3-5 CKD who were not receiving dialysis was analyzed. Patients with stages 3-5 CKD in the CKD program from 2003 to 2009 were enrolled and prospectively followed until December of 2012 to monitor the development of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding was analyzed using competing-risks regression with time-varying covariates. In total, 2968 patients with stages 3-5 CKD who were not receiving dialysis were followed for a median of 1.9 years. The incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding per 100 patient-years was 3.7 (95% confidence interval, 3.5 to 3.9) in patients with stage 3 CKD, 5.0 (95% confidence interval, 4.8 to 5.3) in patients with stage 4 CKD, and 13.9 (95% confidence interval, 13.1 to 14.8) in patients with stage 5 CKD. Higher eGFR was associated with a lower risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (P=0.03), with a subdistribution hazard ratio of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 0.99) for every 5 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) higher eGFR. A history of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (P<0.001) and lower serum albumin (P=0.004) were independently associated with higher upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk. In patients with CKD who are not receiving dialysis, lower renal function is associated with higher risk for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The risk is higher in patients with previous upper gastrointestinal bleeding history and low serum albumin. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Nephrology.

The association of drinking water quality and sewage disposal with Helicobacter pylori incidence in infants: the potential role of water-borne transmission.

PubMed

Travis, Penny B; Goodman, Karen J; O'Rourke, Kathleen M; Groves, Frank D; Sinha, Debajyoti; Nicholas, Joyce S; VanDerslice, Jim; Lackland, Daniel; Mena, Kristina D

2010-03-01

The mode of transmission of Helicobacter pylori, a bacterium causing gastric cancer and peptic ulcer disease, is unknown although waterborne transmission is a likely pathway. This study investigated the hypothesis that access to treated water and a sanitary sewerage system reduces the H. pylori incidence rate, using data from 472 participants in a cohort study that followed children in Juarez, Mexico, and El Paso, Texas, from April 1998, with caretaker interviews and the urea breath test for detecting H. pylori infection at target intervals of six months from birth through 24 months of age. The unadjusted hazard ratio comparing bottled/vending machine water to a municipal water supply was 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50, 1.01) and comparing a municipal sewer connection to a septic tank or cesspool, 0.85 (95% CI: 0.60, 1.20). After adjustment for maternal education and country, the hazard ratios decreased slightly to 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.49, 1.00) and 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.50, 1.21), respectively. These results provide moderate support for potential waterborne transmission of H. pylori.

Maternal lung cancer and testicular cancer risk in the offspring.

PubMed

Kaijser, Magnus; Akre, Olof; Cnattingius, Sven; Ekbom, Anders

2003-07-01

It has been hypothesized that smoking during pregnancy could increase the offspring's risk for testicular cancer. This hypothesis is indirectly supported by both ecological studies and studies of cancer aggregations within families. However, results from analytical epidemiological studies are not consistent, possibly due to methodological difficulties. To further study the association between smoking during pregnancy and testicular cancer, we did a population-based cohort study on cancer risk among offspring of women diagnosed with lung cancer. Through the use of the Swedish Cancer Register and the Swedish Second-Generation Register, we identified 8,430 women who developed lung cancer between 1958 and 1997 and delivered sons between 1941 and 1979. Cancer cases among the male offspring were then identified through the Swedish Cancer Register. Standardized incidence ratios were computed, using 95% confidence intervals. We identified 12,592 male offspring of mothers with a subsequent diagnosis of lung cancer, and there were 40 cases of testicular cancer (standardized incidence ratio, 1.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.58). The association was independent of maternal lung cancer subtype, and the risk of testicular cancer increased stepwise with decreasing time interval between birth and maternal lung cancer diagnosis. Our results support the hypothesis that exposure to cigarette smoking in utero increases the risk of testicular cancer.

Guide for Calculating and Interpreting Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals in Intellectual and Developmental Disability Research Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunst, Carl J.; Hamby, Deborah W.

2012-01-01

This paper includes a nontechnical description of methods for calculating effect sizes in intellectual and developmental disability studies. Different hypothetical studies are used to illustrate how null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and effect size findings can result in quite different outcomes and therefore conflicting results. Whereas…

Confidence interval or p-value?: part 4 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.

PubMed

du Prel, Jean-Baptist; Hommel, Gerhard; Röhrig, Bernd; Blettner, Maria

2009-05-01

An understanding of p-values and confidence intervals is necessary for the evaluation of scientific articles. This article will inform the reader of the meaning and interpretation of these two statistical concepts. The uses of these two statistical concepts and the differences between them are discussed on the basis of a selective literature search concerning the methods employed in scientific articles. P-values in scientific studies are used to determine whether a null hypothesis formulated before the performance of the study is to be accepted or rejected. In exploratory studies, p-values enable the recognition of any statistically noteworthy findings. Confidence intervals provide information about a range in which the true value lies with a certain degree of probability, as well as about the direction and strength of the demonstrated effect. This enables conclusions to be drawn about the statistical plausibility and clinical relevance of the study findings. It is often useful for both statistical measures to be reported in scientific articles, because they provide complementary types of information.

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

TI-59 Programs for Multiple Regression.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-01

general linear hypothesis model of full rank [ Graybill , 19611 can be written as Y = x 8 + C , s-N(O,o 2I) nxl nxk kxl nxl where Y is the vector of n...a "reduced model " solution, and confidence intervals for linear functions of the coefficients can be obtained using (x’x) and a2, based on the t...O107)l UA.LLL. Library ModuIe NASTER -Puter 0NTINA Cards 1 PROGRAM DESCRIPTION (s s 2 ror the general linear hypothesis model Y - XO + C’ calculates

Biostatistics Series Module 2: Overview of Hypothesis Testing.

PubMed

Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

2016-01-01

Hypothesis testing (or statistical inference) is one of the major applications of biostatistics. Much of medical research begins with a research question that can be framed as a hypothesis. Inferential statistics begins with a null hypothesis that reflects the conservative position of no change or no difference in comparison to baseline or between groups. Usually, the researcher has reason to believe that there is some effect or some difference which is the alternative hypothesis. The researcher therefore proceeds to study samples and measure outcomes in the hope of generating evidence strong enough for the statistician to be able to reject the null hypothesis. The concept of the P value is almost universally used in hypothesis testing. It denotes the probability of obtaining by chance a result at least as extreme as that observed, even when the null hypothesis is true and no real difference exists. Usually, if P is < 0.05 the null hypothesis is rejected and sample results are deemed statistically significant. With the increasing availability of computers and access to specialized statistical software, the drudgery involved in statistical calculations is now a thing of the past, once the learning curve of the software has been traversed. The life sciences researcher is therefore free to devote oneself to optimally designing the study, carefully selecting the hypothesis tests to be applied, and taking care in conducting the study well. Unfortunately, selecting the right test seems difficult initially. Thinking of the research hypothesis as addressing one of five generic research questions helps in selection of the right hypothesis test. In addition, it is important to be clear about the nature of the variables (e.g., numerical vs. categorical; parametric vs. nonparametric) and the number of groups or data sets being compared (e.g., two or more than two) at a time. The same research question may be explored by more than one type of hypothesis test. While this may be of utility in highlighting different aspects of the problem, merely reapplying different tests to the same issue in the hope of finding a P < 0.05 is a wrong use of statistics. Finally, it is becoming the norm that an estimate of the size of any effect, expressed with its 95% confidence interval, is required for meaningful interpretation of results. A large study is likely to have a small (and therefore "statistically significant") P value, but a "real" estimate of the effect would be provided by the 95% confidence interval. If the intervals overlap between two interventions, then the difference between them is not so clear-cut even if P < 0.05. The two approaches are now considered complementary to one another.

Biostatistics Series Module 2: Overview of Hypothesis Testing

PubMed Central

Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

2016-01-01

Hypothesis testing (or statistical inference) is one of the major applications of biostatistics. Much of medical research begins with a research question that can be framed as a hypothesis. Inferential statistics begins with a null hypothesis that reflects the conservative position of no change or no difference in comparison to baseline or between groups. Usually, the researcher has reason to believe that there is some effect or some difference which is the alternative hypothesis. The researcher therefore proceeds to study samples and measure outcomes in the hope of generating evidence strong enough for the statistician to be able to reject the null hypothesis. The concept of the P value is almost universally used in hypothesis testing. It denotes the probability of obtaining by chance a result at least as extreme as that observed, even when the null hypothesis is true and no real difference exists. Usually, if P is < 0.05 the null hypothesis is rejected and sample results are deemed statistically significant. With the increasing availability of computers and access to specialized statistical software, the drudgery involved in statistical calculations is now a thing of the past, once the learning curve of the software has been traversed. The life sciences researcher is therefore free to devote oneself to optimally designing the study, carefully selecting the hypothesis tests to be applied, and taking care in conducting the study well. Unfortunately, selecting the right test seems difficult initially. Thinking of the research hypothesis as addressing one of five generic research questions helps in selection of the right hypothesis test. In addition, it is important to be clear about the nature of the variables (e.g., numerical vs. categorical; parametric vs. nonparametric) and the number of groups or data sets being compared (e.g., two or more than two) at a time. The same research question may be explored by more than one type of hypothesis test. While this may be of utility in highlighting different aspects of the problem, merely reapplying different tests to the same issue in the hope of finding a P < 0.05 is a wrong use of statistics. Finally, it is becoming the norm that an estimate of the size of any effect, expressed with its 95% confidence interval, is required for meaningful interpretation of results. A large study is likely to have a small (and therefore “statistically significant”) P value, but a “real” estimate of the effect would be provided by the 95% confidence interval. If the intervals overlap between two interventions, then the difference between them is not so clear-cut even if P < 0.05. The two approaches are now considered complementary to one another. PMID:27057011

Glucocorticosteroids associated with a decreased risk of psychosis.

PubMed

Laan, Wijnand; Smeets, Hugo; de Wit, Niek J; Kahn, René S; Grobbee, Diederick E; Burger, Huibert

2009-06-01

The hypothesis that chronic inflammation may play a role in psychosis receives increasing attention. In this study, we aim to investigate whether the use of steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs is associated with a decreased risk of psychosis.A longitudinal nested case-control study was performed investigating the association of glucocorticosteroid (GCS) consumption with a new diagnosis of a psychotic disorder. Significantly reduced odds ratios of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.75) were found for GCS in men only (odds ratio in women, 0.84 [95% confidence interval, 0.590-1.20]). Similar risk reductions were present for the inhaled and systemic GCSs. A dose-response relationship was present. Our finding of an inverse relation between GCS consumption and new psychotic episodes may promote further research into inflammation in schizophrenia.

A spreadsheet template compatible with Microsoft Excel and iWork Numbers that returns the simultaneous confidence intervals for all pairwise differences between multiple sample means.

PubMed

Brown, Angus M

2010-04-01

The objective of the method described in this paper is to develop a spreadsheet template for the purpose of comparing multiple sample means. An initial analysis of variance (ANOVA) test on the data returns F--the test statistic. If F is larger than the critical F value drawn from the F distribution at the appropriate degrees of freedom, convention dictates rejection of the null hypothesis and allows subsequent multiple comparison testing to determine where the inequalities between the sample means lie. A variety of multiple comparison methods are described that return the 95% confidence intervals for differences between means using an inclusive pairwise comparison of the sample means. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the Log-Normality of Historical Magnetic-Storm Intensity Statistics: Implications for Extreme-Event Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to -Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, -Dst > 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a -Dst > 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT. This work is partially motivated by United States National Science and Technology Council and Committee on Space Research and International Living with a Star priorities and strategic plans for the assessment and mitigation of space-weather hazards.

Use of mobile phones in Norway and risk of intracranial tumours.

PubMed

Klaeboe, Lars; Blaasaas, Karl Gerhard; Tynes, Tore

2007-04-01

To test the hypothesis that exposure to radio-frequency electromagnetic fields from mobile phones increases the incidence of gliomas, meningiomas and acoustic neuromas in adults. The incident cases were of patients aged 19-69 years who were diagnosed during 2001-2002 in Southern Norway. Population controls were selected and frequency-matched for age, sex, and residential area. Detailed information about mobile phone use was collected from 289 glioma (response rate 77%), 207 meningioma patients (71%), and 45 acoustic neuroma patients (68%) and from 358 (69%) controls. For regular mobile phone use, defined as use on average at least once a week or more for at least 6 months, the odds ratio was 0.6 (95% confidence interval 0.4-0.9) for gliomas, 0.8 (95% confidence interval 0.5-1.1) for meningiomas and 0.5 (95% confidence interval 0.2-1.0) for acoustic neuromas. Similar results were found with mobile phone use for 6 years or more for gliomas and acoustic neuromas. An exception was meningiomas, where the odds ratio was 1.2 (95% confidence interval 0.6-2.2). Furthermore, no increasing trend was observed for gliomas or acoustic neuromas by increasing duration of regular use, the time since first regular use or cumulative use of mobile phones. The results from the present study indicate that use of mobile phones is not associated with an increased risk of gliomas, meningiomas or acoustic neuromas.

High Impact = High Statistical Standards? Not Necessarily So

PubMed Central

Tressoldi, Patrizio E.; Giofré, David; Sella, Francesco; Cumming, Geoff

2013-01-01

What are the statistical practices of articles published in journals with a high impact factor? Are there differences compared with articles published in journals with a somewhat lower impact factor that have adopted editorial policies to reduce the impact of limitations of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing? To investigate these questions, the current study analyzed all articles related to psychological, neuropsychological and medical issues, published in 2011 in four journals with high impact factors: Science, Nature, The New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet, and three journals with relatively lower impact factors: Neuropsychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology-Applied and the American Journal of Public Health. Results show that Null Hypothesis Significance Testing without any use of confidence intervals, effect size, prospective power and model estimation, is the prevalent statistical practice used in articles published in Nature, 89%, followed by articles published in Science, 42%. By contrast, in all other journals, both with high and lower impact factors, most articles report confidence intervals and/or effect size measures. We interpreted these differences as consequences of the editorial policies adopted by the journal editors, which are probably the most effective means to improve the statistical practices in journals with high or low impact factors. PMID:23418533

High impact  =  high statistical standards? Not necessarily so.

PubMed

Tressoldi, Patrizio E; Giofré, David; Sella, Francesco; Cumming, Geoff

2013-01-01

What are the statistical practices of articles published in journals with a high impact factor? Are there differences compared with articles published in journals with a somewhat lower impact factor that have adopted editorial policies to reduce the impact of limitations of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing? To investigate these questions, the current study analyzed all articles related to psychological, neuropsychological and medical issues, published in 2011 in four journals with high impact factors: Science, Nature, The New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet, and three journals with relatively lower impact factors: Neuropsychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology-Applied and the American Journal of Public Health. Results show that Null Hypothesis Significance Testing without any use of confidence intervals, effect size, prospective power and model estimation, is the prevalent statistical practice used in articles published in Nature, 89%, followed by articles published in Science, 42%. By contrast, in all other journals, both with high and lower impact factors, most articles report confidence intervals and/or effect size measures. We interpreted these differences as consequences of the editorial policies adopted by the journal editors, which are probably the most effective means to improve the statistical practices in journals with high or low impact factors.

Exploring students’ perceived and actual ability in solving statistical problems based on Rasch measurement tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azila Che Musa, Nor; Mahmud, Zamalia; Baharun, Norhayati

2017-09-01

One of the important skills that is required from any student who are learning statistics is knowing how to solve statistical problems correctly using appropriate statistical methods. This will enable them to arrive at a conclusion and make a significant contribution and decision for the society. In this study, a group of 22 students majoring in statistics at UiTM Shah Alam were given problems relating to topics on testing of hypothesis which require them to solve the problems using confidence interval, traditional and p-value approach. Hypothesis testing is one of the techniques used in solving real problems and it is listed as one of the difficult concepts for students to grasp. The objectives of this study is to explore students’ perceived and actual ability in solving statistical problems and to determine which item in statistical problem solving that students find difficult to grasp. Students’ perceived and actual ability were measured based on the instruments developed from the respective topics. Rasch measurement tools such as Wright map and item measures for fit statistics were used to accomplish the objectives. Data were collected and analysed using Winsteps 3.90 software which is developed based on the Rasch measurement model. The results showed that students’ perceived themselves as moderately competent in solving the statistical problems using confidence interval and p-value approach even though their actual performance showed otherwise. Item measures for fit statistics also showed that the maximum estimated measures were found on two problems. These measures indicate that none of the students have attempted these problems correctly due to reasons which include their lack of understanding in confidence interval and probability values.

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

PubMed Central

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2016-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful because it can be used to test specific questions of central interest in studies with factorial designs. It weighs several means and combines them into one or two sets that can be tested with t tests. The effect size produced by a contrast analysis is simply the difference between means. The CI of the effect size informs directly about direction, hypothesis exclusion, and the relevance of the effects of interest. However, any interpretation in terms of precision or likelihood requires the use of likelihood intervals or credible intervals (Bayesian). These various intervals and even a Bayesian t test can be obtained easily with free software. This tutorial reviews these methods to guide researchers in answering the following questions: When I analyze mean differences in factorial designs, where can I find the effects of central interest, and what can I learn about their effect sizes? PMID:29805179

Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

PubMed

Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

2015-01-01

The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

Zero- vs. one-dimensional, parametric vs. non-parametric, and confidence interval vs. hypothesis testing procedures in one-dimensional biomechanical trajectory analysis.

PubMed

Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A

2015-05-01

Biomechanical processes are often manifested as one-dimensional (1D) trajectories. It has been shown that 1D confidence intervals (CIs) are biased when based on 0D statistical procedures, and the non-parametric 1D bootstrap CI has emerged in the Biomechanics literature as a viable solution. The primary purpose of this paper was to clarify that, for 1D biomechanics datasets, the distinction between 0D and 1D methods is much more important than the distinction between parametric and non-parametric procedures. A secondary purpose was to demonstrate that a parametric equivalent to the 1D bootstrap exists in the form of a random field theory (RFT) correction for multiple comparisons. To emphasize these points we analyzed six datasets consisting of force and kinematic trajectories in one-sample, paired, two-sample and regression designs. Results showed, first, that the 1D bootstrap and other 1D non-parametric CIs were qualitatively identical to RFT CIs, and all were very different from 0D CIs. Second, 1D parametric and 1D non-parametric hypothesis testing results were qualitatively identical for all six datasets. Last, we highlight the limitations of 1D CIs by demonstrating that they are complex, design-dependent, and thus non-generalizable. These results suggest that (i) analyses of 1D data based on 0D models of randomness are generally biased unless one explicitly identifies 0D variables before the experiment, and (ii) parametric and non-parametric 1D hypothesis testing provide an unambiguous framework for analysis when one׳s hypothesis explicitly or implicitly pertains to whole 1D trajectories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suicides in Active-Duty Enlisted Navy Personnel

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-07-03

percent confidence intervals (95 percent CI) were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution ( Lilienfeld & Lilienfeld , 1980). Variables analyzed in this...34efforts to improve the status of women in the Army played a role in this reduction but we lack data to test this hypothesis (Rothberg et al., 1988...recruit population. Military Medicine, 141:327-331. Jobes, D.A., Berman, A.L., & Josselsen, A.R. (1986). The impact of psychological autopsies on

Long-term mobile phone use and brain tumor risk.

PubMed

Lönn, Stefan; Ahlbom, Anders; Hall, Per; Feychting, Maria

2005-03-15

Handheld mobile phones were introduced in Sweden during the late 1980s. The purpose of this population-based, case-control study was to test the hypothesis that long-term mobile phone use increases the risk of brain tumors. The authors identified all cases aged 20-69 years who were diagnosed with glioma or meningioma during 2000-2002 in certain parts of Sweden. Randomly selected controls were stratified on age, gender, and residential area. Detailed information about mobile phone use was collected from 371 (74%) glioma and 273 (85%) meningioma cases and 674 (71%) controls. For regular mobile phone use, the odds ratio was 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 0.6, 1.0) for glioma and 0.7 (95% confidence interval: 0.5, 0.9) for meningioma. Similar results were found for more than 10 years' duration of mobile phone use. No risk increase was found for ipsilateral phone use for tumors located in the temporal and parietal lobes. Furthermore, the odds ratio did not increase, regardless of tumor histology, type of phone, and amount of use. This study includes a large number of long-term mobile phone users, and the authors conclude that the data do not support the hypothesis that mobile phone use is related to an increased risk of glioma or meningioma.

Colon cancer in Chile before and after the start of the flour fortification program with folic acid.

PubMed

Hirsch, Sandra; Sanchez, Hugo; Albala, Cecilia; de la Maza, María Pía; Barrera, Gladys; Leiva, Laura; Bunout, Daniel

2009-04-01

Folate depletion is associated with an increased risk of colorectal carcinogenesis. A temporal association between folic acid fortification of enriched cereal grains and an increase in the incidence of colorectal cancer in the USA and Canada has, however, been recently reported. To compare the rates of hospital discharges owing to colon cancer in Chile before and after the start of the mandatory flour fortification program with 220 microg of synthetic folic acid/100 g of wheat flour. Cancer and cardiovascular hospital discharge rates were compared using rate ratios between two study periods, 1992-1996, before folic acid fortification and 2001-2004, after the flour fortification with folic acid was established in the country. Standard errors of the log rate ratio to derive confidence intervals, and to test the null hypothesis of no difference, were calculated. The highest rate ratio between the two periods was for colon cancer in the group aged 45-64 years (rate ratio: 2.6, confidence interval: 99% 2.93-2.58) and in the 65-79 years (rate ratio: 2.9, confidence interval: 99% 3.25-2.86). Our data provide new evidence that a folate fortification program could be associated with an additional risk of colon cancer.

Exposure to diesel and gasoline engine emissions and the risk of lung cancer.

PubMed

Parent, Marie-Elise; Rousseau, Marie-Claude; Boffetta, Paolo; Cohen, Aaron; Siemiatycki, Jack

2007-01-01

Pollution from motor vehicles constitutes a major environmental health problem. The present paper describes associations between diesel and gasoline engine emissions and lung cancer, as evidenced in a 1979-1985 population-based case-control study in Montreal, Canada. Cases were 857 male lung cancer patients. Controls were 533 population controls and 1,349 patients with other cancer types. Subjects were interviewed to obtain a detailed lifetime job history and relevant data on potential confounders. Industrial hygienists translated each job description into indices of exposure to several agents, including engine emissions. There was no evidence of excess risks of lung cancer with exposure to gasoline exhaust. For diesel engine emissions, results differed by control group. When cancer controls were considered, there was no excess risk. When population controls were studied, the odds ratios, after adjustments for potential confounders, were 1.2 (95% confidence interval: 0.8, 1.8) for any exposure and 1.6 (95% confidence interval: 0.9, 2.8) for substantial exposure. Confidence intervals between risk estimates derived from the two control groups overlapped considerably. These results provide some limited support for the hypothesis of an excess lung cancer risk due to diesel exhaust but no support for an increase in risk due to gasoline exhaust.

Antenatal Steroid Therapy for Fetal Lung Maturation and the Subsequent Risk of Childhood Asthma: A Longitudinal Analysis

PubMed Central

Pole, Jason D.; Mustard, Cameron A.; To, Teresa; Beyene, Joseph; Allen, Alexander C.

2010-01-01

This study was designed to test the hypothesis that fetal exposure to corticosteroids in the antenatal period is an independent risk factor for the development of asthma in early childhood with little or no effect in later childhood. A population-based cohort study of all pregnant women who resided in Nova Scotia, Canada, and gave birth to a singleton fetus between 1989 and 1998 was undertaken. After a priori specified exclusions, 80,448 infants were available for analysis. Using linked health care utilization records, incident asthma cases developed after 36 months of age were identified. Extended Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios while controlling for confounders. Exposure to corticosteroids during pregnancy was associated with a risk of asthma in childhood between 3–5 years of age: adjusted hazard ratio of 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.39), with no association noted after 5 years of age: adjusted hazard ratio for 5–7 years was 1.06 (95% confidence interval: 0.86, 1.30) and for 8 or greater years was 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 1.03). Antenatal steroid therapy appears to be an independent risk factor for the development of asthma between 3 and 5 years of age. PMID:21490744

Stapled versus handsewn methods for colorectal anastomosis surgery.

PubMed

Lustosa, S A; Matos, D; Atallah, A N; Castro, A A

2001-01-01

Randomized controlled trials comparing stapled with handsewn colorectal anastomosis have not shown either technique to be superior, perhaps because individual studies lacked statistical power. A systematic review, with pooled analysis of results, might provide a more definitive answer. To compare the safety and effectiveness of stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. The following primary hypothesis was tested: the stapled technique is more effective because it decreases the level of complications. The RCT register of the Cochrane Review Group was searched for any trial or reference to a relevant trial (published, in-press, or in progress). All publications were sought through computerised searches of EMBASE, LILACS, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trials Database, and through letters to industrial companies and authors. There were no limits upon language, date, or other criteria. All randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in which stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis were compared. Adult patients submitted electively to colorectal anastomosis. Endoluminal circular stapler and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. a) Mortality b) Overall Anastomotic Dehiscence c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence e) Stricture f) Anastomotic Haemorrhage g) Reoperation h) Wound Infection i) Anastomosis Duration j) Hospital Stay. Data were independently extracted by the two reviewers (SASL, DM) and cross-checked. The methodological quality of each trial was assessed by the same two reviewers. Details of the randomization (generation and concealment), blinding, whether an intention-to-treat analysis was done, and the number of patients lost to follow-up were recorded. The results of each RCT were summarised on an intention-to-treat basis in 2 x 2 tables for each outcome. External validity was defined by characteristics of the participants, the interventions and the outcomes. The RCTs were stratified according to the level of colorectal anastomosis. The Risk Difference method (random effects model) and NNT for dichotomous outcomes measures and weighted mean difference for continuous outcomes measures, with the corresponding 95% confidence interval, were presented in this review. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated by using funnel plot and chi-square testing. Of the 1233 patients enrolled ( in 9 trials), 622 were treated with stapled, and 611 with manual, suture. The following main results were obtained: a) Mortality: result based on 901 patients; Risk Difference - 0.6% Confidence Interval -2.8% to +1.6%. b) Overall Dehiscence: result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference 0.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.0% to +5.3%. c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference -1.4%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.2 to +2.3%. d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 825 patients; Risk Difference 1.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -4.8% to +7.3%. e) Stricture: result based on 1042 patients; Risk Difference 4.6%, 95% Confidence Interval 1.2% to 8.1%. Number needed to treat 17, 95% confidence interval 12 to 31. f) Anastomotic Hemorrhage: result based on 662 patients; Risk Difference 2.7%, 95% Confidence Interval - 0.1% to +5.5%. g) Reoperation: result based on 544 patients; Risk Difference 3.9%, 95% Confidence Interval 0.3% to 7.4%. h) Wound Infection: result based on 567 patients; Risk Difference 1.0%, 95% Confidence Interval -2.2% to +4.3%. i) Anastomosis duration: result based on one study (159 patients); Weighted Mean Difference -7.6 minutes, 95% Confidence Interval -12.9 to -2.2 minutes. j) Hospital Stay: result based on one study (159 patients), Weighted Mean Difference 2.0 days, 95% Confidence Interval -3.27 to +7.2 days. The evidence found was insufficient to demonstrate any superiority of stapled over handsewn techniques in colorectal anastomosis, regardless of the level of anastomosis.

Midlife Systemic Inflammation, Late-Life White Matter Integrity, and Cerebral Small Vessel Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

PubMed

Walker, Keenan A; Power, Melinda C; Hoogeveen, Ron C; Folsom, Aaron R; Ballantyne, Christie M; Knopman, David S; Windham, B Gwen; Selvin, Elizabeth; Jack, Clifford R; Gottesman, Rebecca F

2017-12-01

It is currently unclear whether midlife systemic inflammation promotes the development of white matter (WM) abnormalities and small vessel disease in the elderly. We examined the association of midlife systemic inflammation with late-life WM hyperintensity volume, deep and periventricular WM microstructural integrity (fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity [MD]), cerebral infarcts, and microbleeds in a biracial prospective cohort study. Linear and logistic regression examined the relation between midlife high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP)-a nonspecific marker of inflammation-and brain magnetic resonance imaging markers assessed 21 years later in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We included 1485 participants (baseline age, 56[5]; 28% black). After adjusting for demographic factors and cardiovascular disease, each SD increase in midlife CRP was associated with lower fractional anisotropy (-0.09 SD; 95% confidence interval, -0.15 to -0.02) and greater MD (0.08 SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.15) in deep WM and lower fractional anisotropy (-0.07 SD; 95% confidence interval, -0.13 to 0.00) in periventricular WM. We found stronger associations between CRP and periventricular WM microstructural integrity among black participants ( P interaction=0.011). Although an association between higher CRP levels and greater WM hyperintensity volume was found only among APOE ε4-positive participants in our primary analysis (0.14 SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.01-0.26; P interaction=0.028), this relationship extended to the entire sample after accounting for differential attrition. Midlife CRP was not associated with the presence of cerebral infarcts or microbleeds in late life. Our findings support the hypothesis that midlife systemic inflammation may promote the development of chronic microangiopathic structural WM abnormalities in the elderly. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Differences in neurohormonal activity partially explain the obesity paradox in patients with heart failure: The role of sympathetic activation.

PubMed

Farré, Núria; Aranyó, Júlia; Enjuanes, Cristina; Verdú-Rotellar, José María; Ruiz, Sonia; Gonzalez-Robledo, Gina; Meroño, Oona; de Ramon, Marta; Moliner, Pedro; Bruguera, Jordi; Comin-Colet, Josep

2015-02-15

Obese patients with chronic Heart Failure (HF) have better outcome than their lean counterparts, although little is known about the pathophysiology of this obesity paradox. Our aim was to evaluate the hypothesis that patients with chronic HF and obesity (defined as body mass index (BMI)≥30kg/m(2)), may have an attenuated neurohormonal activation in comparison with non-obese patients. The present study is the post-hoc analysis of a cohort of 742 chronic HF patients from a single-center study evaluating sympathetic activation by measuring baseline levels of norepinephrine (NE). Obesity was present in 33% of patients. Higher BMI and obesity were significantly associated with lower NE levels in multivariable linear regression models adjusted for covariates (p<0.001). Addition to NE in multivariate Cox proportional hazard models attenuated the prognostic impact of BMI in terms of outcomes. Finally, when we explored the prognosis impact of raised NE levels (>70th percentile) carrying out a separate analysis in obese and non-obese patients we found that in both groups NE remained a significant independent predictor of poorer outcomes, despite the lower NE levels in patients with chronic HF and obesity: all-cause mortality hazard ratio=2.37 (95% confidence interval, 1.14-4.94) and hazard ratio=1.59 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.4) in obese and non-obese respectively; and cardiovascular mortality hazard ratio=3.08 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-9.01) in obese patients and hazard ratio=2.08 (95% confidence interval, 1.42-3.05) in non-obese patients. Patients with chronic HF and obesity have significantly lower sympathetic activation. This finding may partially explain the obesity paradox described in chronic HF patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association of Parental Hypertension With Arterial Stiffness in Nonhypertensive Offspring: The Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Andersson, Charlotte; Quiroz, Rene; Enserro, Danielle; Larson, Martin G; Hamburg, Naomi M; Vita, Joseph A; Levy, Daniel; Benjamin, Emelia J; Mitchell, Gary F; Vasan, Ramachandran S

2016-09-01

High arterial stiffness seems to be causally involved in the pathogenesis of hypertension. We tested the hypothesis that offspring of parents with hypertension may display higher arterial stiffness before clinically manifest hypertension, given that hypertension is a heritable condition. We compared arterial tonometry measures in a sample of 1564 nonhypertensive Framingham Heart Study third-generation cohort participants (mean age: 38 years; 55% women) whose parents were enrolled in the Framingham Offspring Study. A total of 468, 715, and 381 participants had 0 (referent), 1, and 2 parents with hypertension. Parental hypertension was associated with greater offspring mean arterial pressure (multivariable-adjusted estimate=2.9 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-3.9, and 4.2 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-5.5, for 1 and 2 parents with hypertension, respectively; P<0.001 for both) and with greater forward pressure wave amplitude (1.6 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-2.7, and 1.9 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-3.2, for 1 and 2 parents with hypertension, respectively; P=0.003 for both). Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity and augmentation index displayed similar dose-dependent relations with parental hypertension in sex-, age-, and height-adjusted models, but associations were attenuated on further adjustment. Offspring with at least 1 parent in the upper quartile of augmentation index and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity had significantly higher values themselves (P≤0.02). In conclusion, in this community-based sample of young, nonhypertensive adults, we observed greater arterial stiffness in offspring of parents with hypertension. These observations are consistent with higher vascular stiffness at an early stage in the pathogenesis of hypertension. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Abnormal P-Wave Axis and Ischemic Stroke: The ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities).

PubMed

Maheshwari, Ankit; Norby, Faye L; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Koene, Ryan J; Rooney, Mary R; O'Neal, Wesley T; Alonso, Alvaro; Chen, Lin Y

2017-08-01

Abnormal P-wave axis (aPWA) has been linked to incident atrial fibrillation and mortality; however, the relationship between aPWA and stroke has not been reported. We hypothesized that aPWA is associated with ischemic stroke independent of atrial fibrillation and other stroke risk factors and tested our hypothesis in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities), a community-based prospective cohort study. We included 15 102 participants (aged 54.2±5.7 years; 55.2% women; 26.5% blacks) who attended the baseline examination (1987-1989) and without prevalent stroke. We defined aPWA as any value outside 0 to 75° using 12-lead ECGs obtained during study visits. Each case of incident ischemic stroke was classified in accordance with criteria from the National Survey of Stroke by a computer algorithm and adjudicated by physician review. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of aPWA with stroke. During a mean follow-up of 20.2 years, there were 657 incident ischemic stroke cases. aPWA was independently associated with a 1.50-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.85) increased risk of ischemic stroke in the multivariable model that included atrial fibrillation. When subtyped, aPWA was associated with a 2.04-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.42-2.95) increased risk of cardioembolic stroke and a 1.32-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.71) increased risk of thrombotic stroke. aPWA is independently associated with ischemic stroke. This association seems to be stronger for cardioembolic strokes. Collectively, our findings suggest that alterations in atrial electric activation may predispose to cardiac thromboembolism independent of atrial fibrillation. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Association of Air Pollution Exposures With High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Particle Number: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Bell, Griffith; Mora, Samia; Greenland, Philip; Tsai, Michael; Gill, Ed; Kaufman, Joel D

2017-05-01

The relationship between air pollution and cardiovascular disease may be explained by changes in high-density lipoprotein (HDL). We examined the cross-sectional relationship between air pollution and both HDL cholesterol and HDL particle number in the MESA Air study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Air Pollution). Study participants were 6654 white, black, Hispanic, and Chinese men and women aged 45 to 84 years. We estimated individual residential ambient fine particulate pollution exposure (PM 2.5 ) and black carbon concentrations using a fine-scale likelihood-based spatiotemporal model and cohort-specific monitoring. Exposure periods were averaged to 12 months, 3 months, and 2 weeks prior to examination. HDL cholesterol and HDL particle number were measured in the year 2000 using the cholesterol oxidase method and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, respectively. We used multivariable linear regression to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and HDL measures. A 0.7×10 - 6 m - 1 higher exposure to black carbon (a marker of traffic-related pollution) averaged over a 1-year period was significantly associated with a lower HDL cholesterol (-1.68 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, -2.86 to -0.50) and approached significance with HDL particle number (-0.55 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, -1.13 to 0.03). In the 3-month averaging time period, a 5 μg/m 3 higher PM 2.5 was associated with lower HDL particle number (-0.64 μmol/L; 95% confidence interval, -1.01 to -0.26), but not HDL cholesterol (-0.05 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, -0.82 to 0.71). These data are consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to air pollution is adversely associated with measures of HDL. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Quantile regression models of animal habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.

2003-01-01

Typically, all factors that limit an organism are not measured and included in statistical models used to investigate relationships with their environment. If important unmeasured variables interact multiplicatively with the measured variables, the statistical models often will have heterogeneous response distributions with unequal variances. Quantile regression is an approach for estimating the conditional quantiles of a response variable distribution in the linear model, providing a more complete view of possible causal relationships between variables in ecological processes. Chapter 1 introduces quantile regression and discusses the ordering characteristics, interval nature, sampling variation, weighting, and interpretation of estimates for homogeneous and heterogeneous regression models. Chapter 2 evaluates performance of quantile rankscore tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). A permutation F test maintained better Type I errors than the Chi-square T test for models with smaller n, greater number of parameters p, and more extreme quantiles τ. Both versions of the test required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when there was heterogeneity under the alternative model. An example application related trout densities to stream channel width:depth. Chapter 3 evaluates a drop in dispersion, F-ratio like permutation test for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). Chapter 4 simulates from a large (N = 10,000) finite population representing grid areas on a landscape to demonstrate various forms of hidden bias that might occur when the effect of a measured habitat variable on some animal was confounded with the effect of another unmeasured variable (spatially and not spatially structured). Depending on whether interactions of the measured habitat and unmeasured variable were negative (interference interactions) or positive (facilitation interactions), either upper (τ > 0.5) or lower (τ < 0.5) quantile regression parameters were less biased than mean rate parameters. Sampling (n = 20 - 300) simulations demonstrated that confidence intervals constructed by inverting rankscore tests provided valid coverage of these biased parameters. Quantile regression was used to estimate effects of physical habitat resources on a bivalve mussel (Macomona liliana) in a New Zealand harbor by modeling the spatial trend surface as a cubic polynomial of location coordinates.

Dynamic association rules for gene expression data analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Shu-Chuan; Tsai, Tsung-Hsien; Chung, Cheng-Han; Li, Wen-Hsiung

2015-10-14

The purpose of gene expression analysis is to look for the association between regulation of gene expression levels and phenotypic variations. This association based on gene expression profile has been used to determine whether the induction/repression of genes correspond to phenotypic variations including cell regulations, clinical diagnoses and drug development. Statistical analyses on microarray data have been developed to resolve gene selection issue. However, these methods do not inform us of causality between genes and phenotypes. In this paper, we propose the dynamic association rule algorithm (DAR algorithm) which helps ones to efficiently select a subset of significant genes for subsequent analysis. The DAR algorithm is based on association rules from market basket analysis in marketing. We first propose a statistical way, based on constructing a one-sided confidence interval and hypothesis testing, to determine if an association rule is meaningful. Based on the proposed statistical method, we then developed the DAR algorithm for gene expression data analysis. The method was applied to analyze four microarray datasets and one Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) dataset: the Mice Apo A1 dataset, the whole genome expression dataset of mouse embryonic stem cells, expression profiling of the bone marrow of Leukemia patients, Microarray Quality Control (MAQC) data set and the RNA-seq dataset of a mouse genomic imprinting study. A comparison of the proposed method with the t-test on the expression profiling of the bone marrow of Leukemia patients was conducted. We developed a statistical way, based on the concept of confidence interval, to determine the minimum support and minimum confidence for mining association relationships among items. With the minimum support and minimum confidence, one can find significant rules in one single step. The DAR algorithm was then developed for gene expression data analysis. Four gene expression datasets showed that the proposed DAR algorithm not only was able to identify a set of differentially expressed genes that largely agreed with that of other methods, but also provided an efficient and accurate way to find influential genes of a disease. In the paper, the well-established association rule mining technique from marketing has been successfully modified to determine the minimum support and minimum confidence based on the concept of confidence interval and hypothesis testing. It can be applied to gene expression data to mine significant association rules between gene regulation and phenotype. The proposed DAR algorithm provides an efficient way to find influential genes that underlie the phenotypic variance.

Welding and Lung Cancer in a Pooled Analysis of Case-Control Studies

PubMed Central

Kendzia, Benjamin; Behrens, Thomas; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Siemiatycki, Jack; Kromhout, Hans; Vermeulen, Roel; Peters, Susan; Van Gelder, Rainer; Olsson, Ann; Brüske, Irene; Wichmann, H.-Erich; Stücker, Isabelle; Guida, Florence; Tardón, Adonina; Merletti, Franco; Mirabelli, Dario; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Pohlabeln, Hermann; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Landi, Maria Teresa; Caporaso, Neil; Consonni, Dario; Zaridze, David; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Lissowska, Jolanta; Gustavsson, Per; Marcus, Michael; Fabianova, Eleonora; ‘t Mannetje, Andrea; Pearce, Neil; Tse, Lap Ah; Yu, Ignatius Tak-sun; Rudnai, Peter; Bencko, Vladimir; Janout, Vladimir; Mates, Dana; Foretova, Lenka; Forastiere, Francesco; McLaughlin, John; Demers, Paul; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas; Boffetta, Paolo; Schüz, Joachim; Straif, Kurt; Pesch, Beate; Brüning, Thomas

2013-01-01

Several epidemiologic studies have indicated an increased risk of lung cancer among welders. We used the SYNERGY project database to assess welding as a risk factor for developing lung cancer. The database includes data on 15,483 male lung cancer cases and 18,388 male controls from 16 studies in Europe, Canada, China, and New Zealand conducted between 1985 and 2010. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals between regular or occasional welding and lung cancer were estimated, with adjustment for smoking, age, study center, and employment in other occupations associated with lung cancer risk. Overall, 568 cases and 427 controls had ever worked as welders and had an odds ratio of developing lung cancer of 1.44 (95% confidence interval: 1.25, 1.67) with the odds ratio increasing for longer duration of welding. In never and light smokers, the odds ratio was 1.96 (95% confidence interval: 1.37, 2.79). The odds ratios were somewhat higher for squamous and small cell lung cancers than for adenocarcinoma. Another 1,994 cases and 1,930 controls had ever worked in occupations with occasional welding. Work in any of these occupations was associated with some elevation of risk, though not as much as observed in regular welders. Our findings lend further support to the hypothesis that welding is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer. PMID:24052544

Welding and lung cancer in a pooled analysis of case-control studies.

PubMed

Kendzia, Benjamin; Behrens, Thomas; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Siemiatycki, Jack; Kromhout, Hans; Vermeulen, Roel; Peters, Susan; Van Gelder, Rainer; Olsson, Ann; Brüske, Irene; Wichmann, H-Erich; Stücker, Isabelle; Guida, Florence; Tardón, Adonina; Merletti, Franco; Mirabelli, Dario; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Pohlabeln, Hermann; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Landi, Maria Teresa; Caporaso, Neil; Consonni, Dario; Zaridze, David; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Lissowska, Jolanta; Gustavsson, Per; Marcus, Michael; Fabianova, Eleonora; 't Mannetje, Andrea; Pearce, Neil; Tse, Lap Ah; Yu, Ignatius Tak-Sun; Rudnai, Peter; Bencko, Vladimir; Janout, Vladimir; Mates, Dana; Foretova, Lenka; Forastiere, Francesco; McLaughlin, John; Demers, Paul; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas; Boffetta, Paolo; Schüz, Joachim; Straif, Kurt; Pesch, Beate; Brüning, Thomas

2013-11-15

Several epidemiologic studies have indicated an increased risk of lung cancer among welders. We used the SYNERGY project database to assess welding as a risk factor for developing lung cancer. The database includes data on 15,483 male lung cancer cases and 18,388 male controls from 16 studies in Europe, Canada, China, and New Zealand conducted between 1985 and 2010. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals between regular or occasional welding and lung cancer were estimated, with adjustment for smoking, age, study center, and employment in other occupations associated with lung cancer risk. Overall, 568 cases and 427 controls had ever worked as welders and had an odds ratio of developing lung cancer of 1.44 (95% confidence interval: 1.25, 1.67) with the odds ratio increasing for longer duration of welding. In never and light smokers, the odds ratio was 1.96 (95% confidence interval: 1.37, 2.79). The odds ratios were somewhat higher for squamous and small cell lung cancers than for adenocarcinoma. Another 1,994 cases and 1,930 controls had ever worked in occupations with occasional welding. Work in any of these occupations was associated with some elevation of risk, though not as much as observed in regular welders. Our findings lend further support to the hypothesis that welding is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer.

Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia and Indicators of Early Immune Stimulation: A Childhood Leukemia International Consortium Study

PubMed Central

Rudant, Jérémie; Lightfoot, Tracy; Urayama, Kevin Y.; Petridou, Eleni; Dockerty, John D.; Magnani, Corrado; Milne, Elizabeth; Spector, Logan G.; Ashton, Lesley J.; Dessypris, Nikolaos; Kang, Alice Y.; Miller, Margaret; Rondelli, Roberto; Simpson, Jill; Stiakaki, Eftichia; Orsi, Laurent; Roman, Eve; Metayer, Catherine; Infante-Rivard, Claire; Clavel, Jacqueline

2015-01-01

The associations between childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and several proxies of early stimulation of the immune system, that is, day-care center attendance, birth order, maternally reported common infections in infancy, and breastfeeding, were investigated by using data from 11 case-control studies participating in the Childhood Leukemia International Consortium (enrollment period: 1980–2010). The sample included 7,399 ALL cases and 11,181 controls aged 2–14 years. The data were collected by questionnaires administered to the parents. Pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated by unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, study, maternal education, and maternal age. Day-care center attendance in the first year of life was associated with a reduced risk of ALL (odds ratio = 0.77, 95% confidence interval: 0.71, 0.84), with a marked inverse trend with earlier age at start (P < 0.0001). An inverse association was also observed with breastfeeding duration of 6 months or more (odds ratio = 0.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 0.94). No significant relationship with a history of common infections in infancy was observed even though the odds ratio was less than 1 for more than 3 infections. The findings of this large pooled analysis reinforce the hypothesis that day-care center attendance in infancy and prolonged breastfeeding are associated with a decreased risk of ALL. PMID:25731888

Low vs. higher-dose dark chocolate and blood pressure in cardiovascular high-risk patients.

PubMed

Desch, Steffen; Kobler, Daniela; Schmidt, Johanna; Sonnabend, Melanie; Adams, Volker; Sareban, Mahdi; Eitel, Ingo; Blüher, Matthias; Schuler, Gerhard; Thiele, Holger

2010-06-01

Dark chocolate may have blood pressure-lowering properties. We conducted a prospective randomized open-label blinded end-point design trial to study a potential dose dependency of the presumed antihypertensive effect of dark chocolate by directly comparing low vs. higher doses of dark chocolate over the course of 3 months. We enrolled a total of 102 patients with prehypertension/stage 1 hypertension and established cardiovascular end-organ damage or diabetes mellitus. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either 6 or 25 g/day of flavanol-rich dark chocolate for 3 months. The difference in 24-h mean blood pressure between groups was defined as the primary outcome measure. Significant reductions in mean ambulatory 24-h blood pressure were observed between baseline and follow-up in both groups (6 g/day: -2.3 mm Hg, 95% confidence interval -4.1 to -0.4; 25 g/day: -1.9 mm Hg, 95% confidence interval -3.6 to -0.2). There were no significant differences in blood pressure changes between groups. In the higher-dose group, a slight increase in body weight was noted (0.8 kg, 95% confidence interval 0.06 to 1.6). The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that dark chocolate may be associated with a reduction in blood pressure (BP). However, due to the lack of a control group, confounding may be possible and the results should be interpreted with caution.

Education and the risk for Alzheimer's disease: sex makes a difference. EURODEM pooled analyses. EURODEM Incidence Research Group.

PubMed

Letenneur, L; Launer, L J; Andersen, K; Dewey, M E; Ott, A; Copeland, J R; Dartigues, J F; Kragh-Sorensen, P; Baldereschi, M; Brayne, C; Lobo, A; Martinez-Lage, J M; Stijnen, T; Hofman, A

2000-06-01

The hypothesis that a low educational level increases the risk for Alzheimer's disease remains controversial. The authors studied the association of years of schooling with the risk for incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease by using pooled data from four European population-based follow-up studies. Dementia cases were identified in a two-stage procedure that included a detailed diagnostic assessment of screen-positive subjects. Dementia and Alzheimer's disease were diagnosed by using international research criteria. Educational level was categorized by years of schooling as low (< or =7), middle (8-11), or high (> or =12). Relative risks (95% confidence intervals) were estimated by using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, study center, smoking status, and self-reported myocardial infarction and stroke. There were 493 (328) incident cases of dementia (Alzheimer's disease) and 28,061 (27,839) person-years of follow-up. Compared with women with a high level of education, those with low and middle levels of education had 4.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.5, 11.9) and 2.6 (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 7.1) times increased risks, respectively, for Alzheimer's disease. The risk estimates for men were close to 1.0. Finding an association of education with Alzheimer's disease for women only raises the possibility that unmeasured confounding explains the previously reported increased risk for Alzheimer's disease for persons with low levels of education.

Harnessing Multivariate Statistics for Ellipsoidal Data in Structural Geology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, N.; Davis, J. R.; Titus, S.; Tikoff, B.

2015-12-01

Most structural geology articles do not state significance levels, report confidence intervals, or perform regressions to find trends. This is, in part, because structural data tend to include directions, orientations, ellipsoids, and tensors, which are not treatable by elementary statistics. We describe a full procedural methodology for the statistical treatment of ellipsoidal data. We use a reconstructed dataset of deformed ooids in Maryland from Cloos (1947) to illustrate the process. Normalized ellipsoids have five degrees of freedom and can be represented by a second order tensor. This tensor can be permuted into a five dimensional vector that belongs to a vector space and can be treated with standard multivariate statistics. Cloos made several claims about the distribution of deformation in the South Mountain fold, Maryland, and we reexamine two particular claims using hypothesis testing: 1) octahedral shear strain increases towards the axial plane of the fold; 2) finite strain orientation varies systematically along the trend of the axial trace as it bends with the Appalachian orogen. We then test the null hypothesis that the southern segment of South Mountain is the same as the northern segment. This test illustrates the application of ellipsoidal statistics, which combine both orientation and shape. We report confidence intervals for each test, and graphically display our results with novel plots. This poster illustrates the importance of statistics in structural geology, especially when working with noisy or small datasets.

Statistical power analysis in wildlife research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steidl, R.J.; Hayes, J.P.

1997-01-01

Statistical power analysis can be used to increase the efficiency of research efforts and to clarify research results. Power analysis is most valuable in the design or planning phases of research efforts. Such prospective (a priori) power analyses can be used to guide research design and to estimate the number of samples necessary to achieve a high probability of detecting biologically significant effects. Retrospective (a posteriori) power analysis has been advocated as a method to increase information about hypothesis tests that were not rejected. However, estimating power for tests of null hypotheses that were not rejected with the effect size observed in the study is incorrect; these power estimates will always be a??0.50 when bias adjusted and have no relation to true power. Therefore, retrospective power estimates based on the observed effect size for hypothesis tests that were not rejected are misleading; retrospective power estimates are only meaningful when based on effect sizes other than the observed effect size, such as those effect sizes hypothesized to be biologically significant. Retrospective power analysis can be used effectively to estimate the number of samples or effect size that would have been necessary for a completed study to have rejected a specific null hypothesis. Simply presenting confidence intervals can provide additional information about null hypotheses that were not rejected, including information about the size of the true effect and whether or not there is adequate evidence to 'accept' a null hypothesis as true. We suggest that (1) statistical power analyses be routinely incorporated into research planning efforts to increase their efficiency, (2) confidence intervals be used in lieu of retrospective power analyses for null hypotheses that were not rejected to assess the likely size of the true effect, (3) minimum biologically significant effect sizes be used for all power analyses, and (4) if retrospective power estimates are to be reported, then the I?-level, effect sizes, and sample sizes used in calculations must also be reported.

Statistical Validation of Surrogate Endpoints: Another Look at the Prentice Criterion and Other Criteria.

PubMed

Saraf, Sanatan; Mathew, Thomas; Roy, Anindya

2015-01-01

For the statistical validation of surrogate endpoints, an alternative formulation is proposed for testing Prentice's fourth criterion, under a bivariate normal model. In such a setup, the criterion involves inference concerning an appropriate regression parameter, and the criterion holds if the regression parameter is zero. Testing such a null hypothesis has been criticized in the literature since it can only be used to reject a poor surrogate, and not to validate a good surrogate. In order to circumvent this, an equivalence hypothesis is formulated for the regression parameter, namely the hypothesis that the parameter is equivalent to zero. Such an equivalence hypothesis is formulated as an alternative hypothesis, so that the surrogate endpoint is statistically validated when the null hypothesis is rejected. Confidence intervals for the regression parameter and tests for the equivalence hypothesis are proposed using bootstrap methods and small sample asymptotics, and their performances are numerically evaluated and recommendations are made. The choice of the equivalence margin is a regulatory issue that needs to be addressed. The proposed equivalence testing formulation is also adopted for other parameters that have been proposed in the literature on surrogate endpoint validation, namely, the relative effect and proportion explained.

Hazard ratio estimation and inference in clinical trials with many tied event times.

PubMed

Mehrotra, Devan V; Zhang, Yiwei

2018-06-13

The medical literature contains numerous examples of randomized clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints in which large numbers of events accrued over relatively short follow-up periods, resulting in many tied event times. A generally common feature across such examples was that the logrank test was used for hypothesis testing and the Cox proportional hazards model was used for hazard ratio estimation. We caution that this common practice is particularly risky in the setting of many tied event times for two reasons. First, the estimator of the hazard ratio can be severely biased if the Breslow tie-handling approximation for the Cox model (the default in SAS and Stata software) is used. Second, the 95% confidence interval for the hazard ratio can include one even when the corresponding logrank test p-value is less than 0.05. To help establish a better practice, with applicability for both superiority and noninferiority trials, we use theory and simulations to contrast Wald and score tests based on well-known tie-handling approximations for the Cox model. Our recommendation is to report the Wald test p-value and corresponding confidence interval based on the Efron approximation. The recommended test is essentially as powerful as the logrank test, the accompanying point and interval estimates of the hazard ratio have excellent statistical properties even in settings with many tied event times, inferential alignment between the p-value and confidence interval is guaranteed, and implementation is straightforward using commonly used software. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stochastic convergence of renewable energy consumption in OECD countries: a fractional integration approach.

PubMed

Solarin, Sakiru Adebola; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko; Al-Mulali, Usama

2018-04-13

In this article, we have examined the hypothesis of convergence of renewable energy consumption in 27 OECD countries. However, instead of relying on classical techniques, which are based on the dichotomy between stationarity I(0) and nonstationarity I(1), we consider a more flexible approach based on fractional integration. We employ both parametric and semiparametric techniques. Using parametric methods, evidence of convergence is found in the cases of Mexico, Switzerland and Sweden along with the USA, Portugal, the Czech Republic, South Korea and Spain, and employing semiparametric approaches, we found evidence of convergence in all these eight countries along with Australia, France, Japan, Greece, Italy and Poland. For the remaining 13 countries, even though the orders of integration of the series are smaller than one in all cases except Germany, the confidence intervals are so wide that we cannot reject the hypothesis of unit roots thus not finding support for the hypothesis of convergence.

Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Yunfei

This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

2007-01-01

A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

Urinary Cadmium and Risk of Invasive Breast Cancer in the Women's Health Initiative

PubMed Central

Adams, Scott V.; Shafer, Martin M.; Bonner, Matthew R.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Meliker, Jaymie R.; Neuhouser, Marian L.; Newcomb, Polly A.

2016-01-01

Cadmium is a widespread heavy metal pollutant that may act as an exogenous estrogenic hormone. Environmental cadmium exposure has been associated with risk of breast cancer in retrospective studies. We prospectively assessed the relationship between cadmium exposure, evaluated by creatinine-normalized urinary cadmium concentration, and invasive breast cancer among 12,701 postmenopausal women aged ≥50 years in a Women's Health Initiative study of bone mineral density. After a median of 13.2 years of follow-up (1993–2010), 508 cases of invasive breast cancer and 1,050 comparison women were identified for a case-cohort analysis. Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Risk of breast cancer was not associated with urinary cadmium parameterized either in quartiles (comparing highest quartile with lowest, hazard ratio = 0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.56, 1.14; P for trend = 0.20) or as a log-transformed continuous variable (per 2-fold higher urinary cadmium concentration, hazard ratio = 0.94, 95% confidence interval: 0.86, 1.03). We did not observe an association between urinary cadmium and breast cancer risk in any subgroup examined, including never smokers and women with body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2) less than 25. Results were consistent in both estrogen receptor–positive and estrogen receptor–negative tumors. Our results do not support the hypothesis that environmental cadmium exposure is associated with risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. PMID:27037269

An evaluation of inferential procedures for adaptive clinical trial designs with pre-specified rules for modifying the sample size.

PubMed

Levin, Gregory P; Emerson, Sarah C; Emerson, Scott S

2014-09-01

Many papers have introduced adaptive clinical trial methods that allow modifications to the sample size based on interim estimates of treatment effect. There has been extensive commentary on type I error control and efficiency considerations, but little research on estimation after an adaptive hypothesis test. We evaluate the reliability and precision of different inferential procedures in the presence of an adaptive design with pre-specified rules for modifying the sampling plan. We extend group sequential orderings of the outcome space based on the stage at stopping, likelihood ratio statistic, and sample mean to the adaptive setting in order to compute median-unbiased point estimates, exact confidence intervals, and P-values uniformly distributed under the null hypothesis. The likelihood ratio ordering is found to average shorter confidence intervals and produce higher probabilities of P-values below important thresholds than alternative approaches. The bias adjusted mean demonstrates the lowest mean squared error among candidate point estimates. A conditional error-based approach in the literature has the benefit of being the only method that accommodates unplanned adaptations. We compare the performance of this and other methods in order to quantify the cost of failing to plan ahead in settings where adaptations could realistically be pre-specified at the design stage. We find the cost to be meaningful for all designs and treatment effects considered, and to be substantial for designs frequently proposed in the literature. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Daily home gardening improved survival for older people with mobility limitations: an 11-year follow-up study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lêng, Chhian Hūi; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-01-01

To test the hypothesis that gardening is beneficial for survival after taking time-dependent comorbidities, mobility, and depression into account in a longitudinal middle-aged (50-64 years) and older (≥65 years) cohort in Taiwan. The cohort contained 5,058 nationally sampled adults ≥50 years old from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging (1996-2007). Gardening was defined as growing flowers, gardening, or cultivating potted plants for pleasure with five different frequencies. We calculated hazard ratios for the mortality risks of gardening and adjusted the analysis for socioeconomic status, health behaviors and conditions, depression, mobility limitations, and comorbidities. Survival models also examined time-dependent effects and risks in each stratum contingent upon baseline mobility and depression. Sensitivity analyses used imputation methods for missing values. Daily home gardening was associated with a high survival rate (hazard ratio: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.94). The benefits were robust for those with mobility limitations, but without depression at baseline (hazard ratio: 0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.48-0.87) when adjusted for time-dependent comorbidities, mobility limitations, and depression. Chronic or relapsed depression weakened the protection of gardening. For those without mobility limitations and not depressed at baseline, gardening had no effect. Sensitivity analyses using different imputation methods yielded similar results and corroborated the hypothesis. Daily gardening for pleasure was associated with reduced mortality for Taiwanese >50 years old with mobility limitations but without depression.

Assessing Mediational Models: Testing and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects.

PubMed

Biesanz, Jeremy C; Falk, Carl F; Savalei, Victoria

2010-08-06

Theoretical models specifying indirect or mediated effects are common in the social sciences. An indirect effect exists when an independent variable's influence on the dependent variable is mediated through an intervening variable. Classic approaches to assessing such mediational hypotheses ( Baron & Kenny, 1986 ; Sobel, 1982 ) have in recent years been supplemented by computationally intensive methods such as bootstrapping, the distribution of the product methods, and hierarchical Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These different approaches for assessing mediation are illustrated using data from Dunn, Biesanz, Human, and Finn (2007). However, little is known about how these methods perform relative to each other, particularly in more challenging situations, such as with data that are incomplete and/or nonnormal. This article presents an extensive Monte Carlo simulation evaluating a host of approaches for assessing mediation. We examine Type I error rates, power, and coverage. We study normal and nonnormal data as well as complete and incomplete data. In addition, we adapt a method, recently proposed in statistical literature, that does not rely on confidence intervals (CIs) to test the null hypothesis of no indirect effect. The results suggest that the new inferential method-the partial posterior p value-slightly outperforms existing ones in terms of maintaining Type I error rates while maximizing power, especially with incomplete data. Among confidence interval approaches, the bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrapping approach often has inflated Type I error rates and inconsistent coverage and is not recommended; In contrast, the bootstrapped percentile confidence interval and the hierarchical Bayesian MCMC method perform best overall, maintaining Type I error rates, exhibiting reasonable power, and producing stable and accurate coverage rates.

Using Bayes to get the most out of non-significant results.

PubMed

Dienes, Zoltan

2014-01-01

No scientific conclusion follows automatically from a statistically non-significant result, yet people routinely use non-significant results to guide conclusions about the status of theories (or the effectiveness of practices). To know whether a non-significant result counts against a theory, or if it just indicates data insensitivity, researchers must use one of: power, intervals (such as confidence or credibility intervals), or else an indicator of the relative evidence for one theory over another, such as a Bayes factor. I argue Bayes factors allow theory to be linked to data in a way that overcomes the weaknesses of the other approaches. Specifically, Bayes factors use the data themselves to determine their sensitivity in distinguishing theories (unlike power), and they make use of those aspects of a theory's predictions that are often easiest to specify (unlike power and intervals, which require specifying the minimal interesting value in order to address theory). Bayes factors provide a coherent approach to determining whether non-significant results support a null hypothesis over a theory, or whether the data are just insensitive. They allow accepting and rejecting the null hypothesis to be put on an equal footing. Concrete examples are provided to indicate the range of application of a simple online Bayes calculator, which reveal both the strengths and weaknesses of Bayes factors.

Effect of aspirin in pregnant women is dependent on increase in bleeding time.

PubMed

Dumont, A; Flahault, A; Beaufils, M; Verdy, E; Uzan, S

1999-01-01

Randomized trials with low-dose aspirin to prevent preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction have yielded conflicting results. In particular, 3 recent large trials were not conclusive. Study designs, however, varied greatly regarding selection of patients, dose of aspirin, and timing of treatment, all of which can be determinants of the results. Retrospectively analyzing the conditions associated with failure or success of aspirin may therefore help to draw up new hypotheses and prepare for more specific randomized trials. We studied a historical cohort of 187 pregnant women who were considered at high risk for preeclampsia, intrauterine growth restriction, or both and were therefore treated with low-dose aspirin between 1989 and 1994. Various epidemiologic, clinical, and laboratory data were extracted from the files. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to search for independent parameters associated with the outcome of pregnancy. Age, parity, weight, height, and race had no influence on the outcome. The success rate was higher when treatment was given because of previous poor pregnancy outcomes than when it was given for other indications, and the patients with successful therapy had started aspirin earlier than had those with therapy failure (17.7 vs 20.0 weeks' gestation, P =.04). After multivariate analysis an increase in Ivy bleeding time after 10 days of treatment by >2 minutes was an independent predictor of a better outcome (odds ratio 0.22, 95% confidence interval 0.09-0.51). Borderline statistical significance was observed for aspirin initiation before 17 weeks' gestation (odds ratio 0.44, 95% confidence interval 0.18-1. 08). Abnormal uterine artery Doppler velocimetric scan at 20-24 weeks' gestation (odds ratio 3.31, 95% confidence interval 1.41-7.7), abnormal umbilical artery Doppler velocimetric scan after 26 weeks' gestation (odds ratio 37.6, 95% confidence interval 3.96-357), and use of antihypertensive therapy (odds ratio 6.06, 95% confidence interval 2.45-15) were independent predictors of poor outcome. Efficacy of aspirin seems optimal when bleeding time increases >/=2 minutes with treatment, indicating a more powerful antiplatelet effect. This suggests that the dose of aspirin should be adjusted according to a biologic marker of the antiplatelet effect. A prospective trial is warranted to test this hypothesis.

Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

PubMed

Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2014-10-01

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

Reducing the width of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means by inverting adaptive tests.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Thomas W

2018-05-01

In the last decade, it has been shown that an adaptive testing method could be used, along with the Robbins-Monro search procedure, to obtain confidence intervals that are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals. However, these confidence interval limits require a great deal of computation and some familiarity with stochastic search methods. We propose a method for estimating the limits of confidence intervals that uses only a few tests of significance. We compare these limits to those obtained by a lengthy Robbins-Monro stochastic search and find that the proposed method is nearly as accurate as the Robbins-Monro search. Adaptive confidence intervals that are produced by the proposed method are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals when the distributions are long-tailed, skewed, or bimodal. Moreover, the proposed method of estimating confidence interval limits is easy to understand, because it is based solely on the p-values from a few tests of significance.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

PubMed

Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

2017-11-10

In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Test by Any Other Name: P Values, Bayes Factors, and Statistical Inference.

PubMed

Stern, Hal S

2016-01-01

Procedures used for statistical inference are receiving increased scrutiny as the scientific community studies the factors associated with insuring reproducible research. This note addresses recent negative attention directed at p values, the relationship of confidence intervals and tests, and the role of Bayesian inference and Bayes factors, with an eye toward better understanding these different strategies for statistical inference. We argue that researchers and data analysts too often resort to binary decisions (e.g., whether to reject or accept the null hypothesis) in settings where this may not be required.

Confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes, with applications to survey sampling.

PubMed

Rosenblum, Michael A; Laan, Mark J van der

2009-01-07

The validity of standard confidence intervals constructed in survey sampling is based on the central limit theorem. For small sample sizes, the central limit theorem may give a poor approximation, resulting in confidence intervals that are misleading. We discuss this issue and propose methods for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes. We present a simple approach for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean based on tail bounds for the sample mean that are correct for all sample sizes. Bernstein's inequality provides one such tail bound. The resulting confidence intervals have guaranteed coverage probability under much weaker assumptions than are required for standard methods. A drawback of this approach, as we show, is that these confidence intervals are often quite wide. In response to this, we present a method for constructing much narrower confidence intervals, which are better suited for practical applications, and that are still more robust than confidence intervals based on standard methods, when dealing with small sample sizes. We show how to extend our approaches to much more general estimation problems than estimating the sample mean. We describe how these methods can be used to obtain more reliable confidence intervals in survey sampling. As a concrete example, we construct confidence intervals using our methods for the number of violent deaths between March 2003 and July 2006 in Iraq, based on data from the study "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross sectional cluster sample survey," by Burnham et al. (2006).

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Deborah A.

Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

Can 3-dimensional power Doppler indices improve the prenatal diagnosis of a potentially morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa?

PubMed

Haidar, Ziad A; Papanna, Ramesha; Sibai, Baha M; Tatevian, Nina; Viteri, Oscar A; Vowels, Patricia C; Blackwell, Sean C; Moise, Kenneth J

2017-08-01

Traditionally, 2-dimensional ultrasound parameters have been used for the diagnosis of a suspected morbidly adherent placenta previa. More objective techniques have not been well studied yet. The objective of the study was to determine the ability of prenatal 3-dimensional power Doppler analysis of flow and vascular indices to predict the morbidly adherent placenta objectively. A prospective cohort study was performed in women between 28 and 32 gestational weeks with known placenta previa. Patients underwent a two-dimensional gray-scale ultrasound that determined management decisions. 3-Dimensional power Doppler volumes were obtained during the same examination and vascular, flow, and vascular flow indices were calculated after manual tracing of the viewed placenta in the sweep; data were blinded to obstetricians. Morbidly adherent placenta was confirmed by histology. Severe morbidly adherent placenta was defined as increta/percreta on histology, blood loss >2000 mL, and >2 units of PRBC transfused. Sensitivities, specificities, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Student t and χ 2 tests, logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristic curves, and intra- and interrater agreements using Kappa statistics were performed. The following results were found: (1) 50 women were studied: 23 had morbidly adherent placenta, of which 12 (52.2%) were severe morbidly adherent placenta; (2) 2-dimensional parameters diagnosed morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity of 82.6% (95% confidence interval, 60.4-94.2), a specificity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 69.7-97.1), a positive predictive value of 86.3% (95% confidence interval, 64.0-96.4), a negative predictive value of 85.7% (95% confidence interval, 66.4-95.3), a positive likelihood ratio of 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-21.9), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.2 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.48); (3) mean values of the vascular index (32.8 ± 7.4) and the vascular flow index (14.2 ± 3.8) were higher in morbidly adherent placenta (P < .001); (4) area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the vascular and vascular flow indices were 0.99 and 0.97, respectively; (5) the vascular index ≥21 predicted morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity and a specificity of 95% (95% confidence interval, 88.2-96.9) and 91%, respectively (95% confidence interval, 87.5-92.4), 92% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 85.5-94.3), 90% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 79.9-95.3), positive likelihood ratio of 10.55 (95% confidence interval, 7.06-12.75), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.13); and (6) for the severe morbidly adherent placenta, 2-dimensional ultrasound had a sensitivity of 33.3% (95% confidence interval, 11.3-64.6), a specificity of 81.8% (95% confidence interval, 47.8-96.8), a positive predictive value of 66.7% (95% confidence interval, 24.1-94.1), a negative predictive value of 52.9% (95% confidence interval, 28.5-76.1), a positive likelihood ratio of 1.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-8.11), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-1.26). A vascular index ≥31 predicted the diagnosis of a severe morbidly adherent placenta with a 100% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 72-100), a 90% specificity (95% confidence interval, 81.7-93.8), an 88% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 55.0-91.3), a 100% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 90.9-100), a positive likelihood ratio of 10.0 (95% confidence interval, 3.93-16.13), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0 (95% confidence interval, 0-0.34). Intrarater and interrater agreements were 94% (P < .001) and 93% (P < .001), respectively. The vascular index accurately predicts the morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa. In addition, 3-dimensional power Doppler vascular and vascular flow indices were more predictive of severe cases of morbidly adherent placenta compared with 2-dimensional ultrasound. This objective technique may limit the variations in diagnosing morbidly adherent placenta because of the subjectivity of 2-dimensional ultrasound interpretations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Extended Contact Hypothesis: A Meta-Analysis on 20 Years of Research.

PubMed

Zhou, Shelly; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Aron, Arthur; Moyer, Anne; Hewstone, Miles

2018-04-01

According to the extended contact hypothesis, knowing that in-group members have cross-group friends improves attitudes toward this out-group. This meta-analysis covers the 20 years of research that currently exists on the extended contact hypothesis, and consists of 248 effect sizes from 115 studies. The aggregate relationship between extended contact and intergroup attitudes was r = .25, 95% confidence interval (CI) = [.22, .27], which reduced to r = .17, 95% CI = [.14, .19] after removing direct friendship's contribution; these results suggest that extended contact's hypothesized relationship to intergroup attitudes is small-to-medium and exists independently of direct friendship. This relationship was larger when extended contact was perceived versus actual, highlighting the importance of perception in extended contact. Current results on extended contact mostly resembled their direct friendship counterparts, suggesting similarity between these contact types. These unique insights about extended contact and its relationship with direct friendship should enrich and spur growth within this literature.

Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

PubMed

Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

2015-06-01

Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Interaction of soy food and tea consumption with CYP19A1 genetic polymorphisms in the development of endometrial cancer.

PubMed

Xu, Wang Hong; Dai, Qi; Xiang, Yong Bing; Long, Ji Rong; Ruan, Zhi Xian; Cheng, Jia Rong; Zheng, Wei; Shu, Xiao Ou

2007-12-15

Certain polyphenols inhibit the activity of aromatase, a critical enzyme in estrogen synthesis that is coded by the CYP19A1 gene. Consumption of polyphenol-rich foods and beverages, thus, may interact with CYP19A1 genetic polymorphisms in the development of endometrial cancer. The authors tested this hypothesis in the Shanghai Endometrial Cancer Study (1997-2003), a population-based case-control study of 1,204 endometrial cancer cases and 1,212 controls. Dietary information was obtained by use of a validated food frequency questionnaire. Genotypes of CYP19A1 at rs28566535, rs1065779, rs752760, rs700519, and rs1870050 were available for 1,042 cases and 1,035 controls. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals after adjustment for potential confounding factors. Higher intake of soy foods and tea consumption were both inversely associated with the risk of endometrial cancer, with odds ratios of 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 0.6, 1.0) for the highest versus the lowest tertiles of intake of soy and 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 06, 0.9) for ever tea consumption. The association of single nucleotide polymorphisms rs1065779, rs752760, and rs1870050 with endometrial cancer was modified by tea consumption (p(interaction) < 0.05) but not by soy isoflavone intake. The authors' findings suggest that tea polyphenols may modify the effect of CYP19A1 genetic polymorphisms on the development of endometrial cancer.

Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

2014-01-01

Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

Late-Life Depression is Not Associated with Dementia Related Pathology

PubMed Central

Wilson, Robert S.; Boyle, Patricia A.; Capuano, Ana W.; Shah, Raj C.; Hoganson, George M.; Nag, Sukriti; Bennett, David A.

2015-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that late-life depression is associated with dementia related pathology. Method Older participants (n=1,965) in 3 longitudinal clinical-pathologic cohort studies who had no cognitive impairment at baseline underwent annual clinical evaluations for a mean of 8.0 years (SD = 5.0). We defined depression diagnostically, as major depression during the study period, and psychometrically, as elevated depressive symptoms during the study period, and established their relation to cognitive outcomes (incident dementia, rate of cognitive decline). A total of 657 participants died and underwent a uniform neuropathologic examination. We estimated the association of depression with 6 dementia related markers (tau tangles, beta-amyloid plaques, Lewy bodies, hippocampal sclerosis, gross and microscopic infarcts) in logistic regression models. Results In the full cohort, 9.4% were diagnosed with major depression and 8.6% had chronically elevated depressive symptoms, both of which were related to adverse cognitive outcomes. In the 657 persons who died and had a neuropathologic examination, higher beta-amyloid plaque burden was associated with higher likelihood of major depression (present in 11.0%; odds ratio = 1.392, 95% confidence interval = 1.088, 1.780) but not with elevated depressive symptoms (present in 11.3%; odds ratio = 0.919, 95% confidence interval = 0.726, 1.165). None of the other pathologic markers was related to either of the depression measures. Neither dementia nor antidepressant medication modified the relation of pathology to depression. Conclusion The results do not support the hypothesis that major depression is associated with dementia related pathology. PMID:26237627

Hydrogen-rich water affected blood alkalinity in physically active men.

PubMed

Ostojic, Sergej M; Stojanovic, Marko D

2014-01-01

Possible appliance of effective and safe alkalizing agent in the treatment of metabolic acidosis could be of particular interest to humans experiencing an increase in plasma acidity, such as exercise-induced acidosis. In the present study we tested the hypothesis that the daily oral intake of 2L of hydrogen-rich water (HRW) for 14 days would increase arterial blood alkalinity at baseline and post-exercise as compared with the placebo. This study was a randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 52 presumably healthy physically active male volunteers. Twenty-six participants received HRW and 26 a placebo (tap water) for 14 days. Arterial blood pH, partial pressure for carbon dioxide (pCO2), and bicarbonates were measured at baseline and postexercise at the start (day 0) and at the end of the intervention period (day 14). Intake of HRW significantly increased fasting arterial blood pH by 0.04 (95% confidence interval; 0.01 - 0.08; p < 0.001), and postexercise pH by 0.07 (95% confidence interval; 0.01 - 0.10; p = 0.03) after 14 days of intervention. Fasting bicarbonates were significantly higher in the HRW trial after the administration regimen as compared with the preadministration (30.5 ± 1.9 mEq/L vs. 28.3 ± 2.3 mEq/L; p < 0.0001). No volunteers withdrew before the end of the study, and no participant reported any vexatious side effects of supplementation. These results support the hypothesis that HRW administration is safe and may have an alkalizing effect in young physically active men.

A probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations

PubMed Central

He, Yungang; Wang, Minxian; Huang, Xin; Li, Ran; Xu, Hongyang; Xu, Shuhua; Jin, Li

2015-01-01

Human populations around the world encounter various environmental challenges and, consequently, develop genetic adaptations to different selection forces. Identifying the differences in natural selection between populations is critical for understanding the roles of specific genetic variants in evolutionary adaptation. Although numerous methods have been developed to detect genetic loci under recent directional selection, a probabilistic solution for testing and quantifying selection differences between populations is lacking. Here we report the development of a probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations. By use of a probabilistic model of genetic drift and selection, we showed that logarithm odds ratios of allele frequencies provide estimates of the differences in selection coefficients between populations. The estimates approximate a normal distribution, and variance can be estimated using genome-wide variants. This allows us to quantify differences in selection coefficients and to determine the confidence intervals of the estimate. Our work also revealed the link between genetic association testing and hypothesis testing of selection differences. It therefore supplies a solution for hypothesis testing of selection differences. This method was applied to a genome-wide data analysis of Han and Tibetan populations. The results confirmed that both the EPAS1 and EGLN1 genes are under statistically different selection in Han and Tibetan populations. We further estimated differences in the selection coefficients for genetic variants involved in melanin formation and determined their confidence intervals between continental population groups. Application of the method to empirical data demonstrated the outstanding capability of this novel approach for testing and quantifying differences in natural selection. PMID:26463656

Daily home gardening improved survival for older people with mobility limitations: an 11-year follow-up study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lêng, Chhian Hūi; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-01-01

Aims To test the hypothesis that gardening is beneficial for survival after taking time-dependent comorbidities, mobility, and depression into account in a longitudinal middle-aged (50–64 years) and older (≥65 years) cohort in Taiwan. Methods The cohort contained 5,058 nationally sampled adults ≥50 years old from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging (1996–2007). Gardening was defined as growing flowers, gardening, or cultivating potted plants for pleasure with five different frequencies. We calculated hazard ratios for the mortality risks of gardening and adjusted the analysis for socioeconomic status, health behaviors and conditions, depression, mobility limitations, and comorbidities. Survival models also examined time-dependent effects and risks in each stratum contingent upon baseline mobility and depression. Sensitivity analyses used imputation methods for missing values. Results Daily home gardening was associated with a high survival rate (hazard ratio: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71–0.94). The benefits were robust for those with mobility limitations, but without depression at baseline (hazard ratio: 0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.48–0.87) when adjusted for time-dependent comorbidities, mobility limitations, and depression. Chronic or relapsed depression weakened the protection of gardening. For those without mobility limitations and not depressed at baseline, gardening had no effect. Sensitivity analyses using different imputation methods yielded similar results and corroborated the hypothesis. Conclusion Daily gardening for pleasure was associated with reduced mortality for Taiwanese >50 years old with mobility limitations but without depression. PMID:27486315

Two-condition within-participant statistical mediation analysis: A path-analytic framework.

PubMed

Montoya, Amanda K; Hayes, Andrew F

2017-03-01

Researchers interested in testing mediation often use designs where participants are measured on a dependent variable Y and a mediator M in both of 2 different circumstances. The dominant approach to assessing mediation in such a design, proposed by Judd, Kenny, and McClelland (2001), relies on a series of hypothesis tests about components of the mediation model and is not based on an estimate of or formal inference about the indirect effect. In this article we recast Judd et al.'s approach in the path-analytic framework that is now commonly used in between-participant mediation analysis. By so doing, it is apparent how to estimate the indirect effect of a within-participant manipulation on some outcome through a mediator as the product of paths of influence. This path-analytic approach eliminates the need for discrete hypothesis tests about components of the model to support a claim of mediation, as Judd et al.'s method requires, because it relies only on an inference about the product of paths-the indirect effect. We generalize methods of inference for the indirect effect widely used in between-participant designs to this within-participant version of mediation analysis, including bootstrap confidence intervals and Monte Carlo confidence intervals. Using this path-analytic approach, we extend the method to models with multiple mediators operating in parallel and serially and discuss the comparison of indirect effects in these more complex models. We offer macros and code for SPSS, SAS, and Mplus that conduct these analyses. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Experimental design, power and sample size for animal reproduction experiments.

PubMed

Chapman, Phillip L; Seidel, George E

2008-01-01

The present paper concerns statistical issues in the design of animal reproduction experiments, with emphasis on the problems of sample size determination and power calculations. We include examples and non-technical discussions aimed at helping researchers avoid serious errors that may invalidate or seriously impair the validity of conclusions from experiments. Screen shots from interactive power calculation programs and basic SAS power calculation programs are presented to aid in understanding statistical power and computing power in some common experimental situations. Practical issues that are common to most statistical design problems are briefly discussed. These include one-sided hypothesis tests, power level criteria, equality of within-group variances, transformations of response variables to achieve variance equality, optimal specification of treatment group sizes, 'post hoc' power analysis and arguments for the increased use of confidence intervals in place of hypothesis tests.

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B

2007-02-01

Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

Using Bayes to get the most out of non-significant results

PubMed Central

Dienes, Zoltan

2014-01-01

No scientific conclusion follows automatically from a statistically non-significant result, yet people routinely use non-significant results to guide conclusions about the status of theories (or the effectiveness of practices). To know whether a non-significant result counts against a theory, or if it just indicates data insensitivity, researchers must use one of: power, intervals (such as confidence or credibility intervals), or else an indicator of the relative evidence for one theory over another, such as a Bayes factor. I argue Bayes factors allow theory to be linked to data in a way that overcomes the weaknesses of the other approaches. Specifically, Bayes factors use the data themselves to determine their sensitivity in distinguishing theories (unlike power), and they make use of those aspects of a theory’s predictions that are often easiest to specify (unlike power and intervals, which require specifying the minimal interesting value in order to address theory). Bayes factors provide a coherent approach to determining whether non-significant results support a null hypothesis over a theory, or whether the data are just insensitive. They allow accepting and rejecting the null hypothesis to be put on an equal footing. Concrete examples are provided to indicate the range of application of a simple online Bayes calculator, which reveal both the strengths and weaknesses of Bayes factors. PMID:25120503

Population-wide folic acid fortification and preterm birth: testing the folate depletion hypothesis.

PubMed

Naimi, Ashley I; Auger, Nathalie

2015-04-01

We assess whether population-wide folic acid fortification policies were followed by a reduction of preterm and early-term birth rates in Québec among women with short and optimal interpregnancy intervals. We extracted birth certificate data for 1.3 million births between 1981 and 2010 to compute age-adjusted preterm and early-term birth rates stratified by short and optimal interpregnancy intervals. We used Joinpoint regression to detect changes in the preterm and early term birth rates and assess whether these changes coincide with the implementation of population-wide folic acid fortification. A change in the preterm birth rate occurred in 2000 among women with short (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1994, 2005) and optimal (95% CI = 1995, 2008) interpregnancy intervals. Changes in early term birth rates did not coincide with the implementation of folic acid fortification. Our results do not indicate a link between folic acid fortification and early term birth but suggest an improvement in preterm birth rates after implementation of a nationwide folic acid fortification program.

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging using sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction for detection of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ma, Heng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Jing; Ge, Lan; An, Jing; Tang, Qing; Li, Han; Zhang, Yu; Chen, David; Wang, Yong; Liu, Jiabin; Liang, Zhigang; Lin, Kai; Jin, Lixin; Bi, Xiaoming; Li, Kuncheng; Li, Debiao

2012-04-15

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction (SW-CG-HYPR) allows whole left ventricular coverage, improved temporal and spatial resolution and signal/noise ratio, and reduced cardiac motion-related image artifacts. The accuracy of this technique for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been determined in a large number of patients. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR in patients with suspected CAD. A total of 50 consecutive patients who were scheduled for coronary angiography with suspected CAD underwent myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR at 3.0 T. The perfusion defects were interpreted qualitatively by 2 blinded observers and were correlated with x-ray angiographic stenoses ≥50%. The prevalence of CAD was 56%. In the per-patient analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of SW-CG-HYPR was 96% (95% confidence interval 82% to 100%), 82% (95% confidence interval 60% to 95%), 87% (95% confidence interval 70% to 96%), 95% (95% confidence interval 74% to100%), and 90% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%), respectively. In the per-vessel analysis, the corresponding values were 98% (95% confidence interval 91% to 100%), 89% (95% confidence interval 80% to 94%), 86% (95% confidence interval 76% to 93%), 99% (95% confidence interval 93% to 100%), and 93% (95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), respectively. In conclusion, myocardial perfusion MRI using SW-CG-HYPR allows whole left ventricular coverage and high resolution and has high diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interaction between caffeine and polymorphisms of glutamate ionotropic receptor NMDA type subunit 2A (GRIN2A) and cytochrome P450 1A2 (CYP1A2) on Parkinson's disease risk.

PubMed

Kim, Iris Y; O'Reilly, Éilis J; Hughes, Katherine C; Gao, Xiang; Schwarzschild, Michael A; McCullough, Marjorie L; Hannan, Marian T; Betensky, Rebecca A; Ascherio, Alberto

2018-03-01

Caffeine intake has been inversely associated with Parkinson's disease (PD) risk. This relationship may be modified by polymorphisms of glutamate ionotropic receptor NMDA type subunit 2A (GRIN2A) and cytochrome P450 1A2 (CYP1A2), but the results of previous studies have been inconsistent. We examined the interaction of caffeine intake with GRIN2A-rs4998386 and CYP1A2-rs762551 polymorphisms in influencing PD risk among 829 incident cases of PD and 2,754 matched controls selected among participants in the following 3 large prospective ongoing cohorts: the Nurses' Health Study, the Health Professionals' Follow-up Study, and the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort. Matching factors included cohort, birth year, source of DNA, date of DNA collection, and race. Relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using conditional logistic models. Interactions were tested both on the multiplicative scale and on the additive scale. Overall, caffeine intake was associated with a lower PD risk (adjusted relative risk for highest versus lowest tertile = 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.86; p < .001). In analyses stratified by the GRIN2A-rs4998386 genotype, the multivariable-adjusted relative risk of PD comparing the highest to the lowest tertile of caffeine was 0.69 (95% confidence interval, 0.55-0.88; p < .01) among individuals homozygous for the C allele, and 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.55-1.32; p = .47; p RERI  = .43) among carriers for the T allele. Interactions between caffeine and GRIN2A were not significant in either the multiplicative or additive scales. We also did not observe significant interactions for CYP1A2-rs762551 and incident PD risk. Our findings do not support the hypothesis of an interaction between the GRIN2A-rs4998386 or CYP1A2-rs762551 polymorphism and caffeine intake in determining PD risk. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Circulating Biomarkers of Dairy Fat and Risk of Incident Diabetes Mellitus Among Men and Women in the United States in Two Large Prospective Cohorts.

PubMed

Yakoob, Mohammad Y; Shi, Peilin; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Campos, Hannia; Orav, E John; Hu, Frank B; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-04-26

In prospective studies, the relationship of self-reported consumption of dairy foods with risk of diabetes mellitus is inconsistent. Few studies have assessed dairy fat, using circulating biomarkers, and incident diabetes mellitus. We tested the hypothesis that circulating fatty acid biomarkers of dairy fat, 15:0, 17:0, and t-16:1n-7, are associated with lower incident diabetes mellitus. Among 3333 adults aged 30 to 75 years and free of prevalent diabetes mellitus at baseline, total plasma and erythrocyte fatty acids were measured in blood collected in 1989 to 1990 (Nurses' Health Study) and 1993 to 1994 (Health Professionals Follow-Up Study). Incident diabetes mellitus through 2010 was confirmed by a validated supplementary questionnaire based on symptoms, diagnostic tests, and medications. Risk was assessed by using Cox proportional hazards, with cohort findings combined by meta-analysis. During mean±standard deviation follow-up of 15.2±5.6 years, 277 new cases of diabetes mellitus were diagnosed. In pooled multivariate analyses adjusting for demographics, metabolic risk factors, lifestyle, diet, and other circulating fatty acids, individuals with higher plasma 15:0 had a 44% lower risk of diabetes mellitus (quartiles 4 versus 1, hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.37-0.86; P-trend=0.01); higher plasma 17:0, 43% lower risk (hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.83; P-trend=0.01); and higher t-16:1n-7, 52% lower risk (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.70; P-trend <0.001). Findings were similar for erythrocyte 15:0, 17:0, and t-16:1n-7, although with broader confidence intervals that only achieved statistical significance for 17:0. In 2 prospective cohorts, higher plasma dairy fatty acid concentrations were associated with lower incident diabetes mellitus. Results were similar for erythrocyte 17:0. Our findings highlight the need to better understand the potential health effects of dairy fat, and the dietary and metabolic determinants of these fatty acids. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

Evaluation and Prediction of Henry’s Law Constants and Aqueous Solubilities for Solvents and Hydrocarbon Fuel Components. Volume 2. Experimental Henry’s Law Data

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-09-01

Pollutants by Gas Chromatographic Headspace Analysis. J. Chrom . 260:23-32. Miller, R. E. 1984. Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests. Chem. Engr...tabulation of the injection peak areas, Henry’s law constant estimates, and Coefficient of Variation (COV) values for the component at five temperatures...I 15.1897 (4) I 14.5788 I 19.7121 1 16 6428 Injection: (1) 1 16158 I 2596 38628 Peak Area] (2) 1 154846 1 281438 1 261148 (3) 4673 1 64736 1 63322 (4

An alternative approach to confidence interval estimation for the win ratio statistic.

PubMed

Luo, Xiaodong; Tian, Hong; Mohanty, Surya; Tsai, Wei Yann

2015-03-01

Pocock et al. (2012, European Heart Journal 33, 176-182) proposed a win ratio approach to analyzing composite endpoints comprised of outcomes with different clinical priorities. In this article, we establish a statistical framework for this approach. We derive the null hypothesis and propose a closed-form variance estimator for the win ratio statistic in all pairwise matching situation. Our simulation study shows that the proposed variance estimator performs well regardless of the magnitude of treatment effect size and the type of the joint distribution of the outcomes. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Verification of a model for the detection of intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) by receiver operating characteristics (ROC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Pengbo; Mongelli, Max; Mondry, Adrian

2004-07-01

The purpose of this study is to verify by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) a mathematical model supporting the hypothesis that IUGR can be diagnosed by estimating growth velocity. The ROC compare computerized simulation results with clinical data from 325 pregnant British women. Each patient had 6 consecutive ultrasound examinations for fetal abdominal circumference (fac). Customized and un-customized fetal weights were calculated according to Hadlock"s formula. IUGR was diagnosed by the clinical standard, i.e. estimated weight below the tenth percentile. Growth velocity was estimated by calculating the changes of fac (Dzfac/dt) at various time intervals from 3 to 10 weeks. Finally, ROC was used to compare the methods. At 3~4 weeks scan interval, the area under the ROC curve is 0.68 for customized data and 0.66 for the uncustomized data with 95% confidence interval. Comparison between simulation data and real pregnancies verified that the model is clinically acceptable.

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

PubMed Central

Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

Task shifting to clinical officer-led echocardiography screening for detecting rheumatic heart disease in Malawi, Africa.

PubMed

Sims Sanyahumbi, Amy; Sable, Craig A; Karlsten, Melissa; Hosseinipour, Mina C; Kazembe, Peter N; Minard, Charles G; Penny, Daniel J

2017-08-01

Echocardiographic screening for rheumatic heart disease in asymptomatic children may result in early diagnosis and prevent progression. Physician-led screening is not feasible in Malawi. Task shifting to mid-level providers such as clinical officers may enable more widespread screening. Hypothesis With short-course training, clinical officers can accurately screen for rheumatic heart disease using focussed echocardiography. A total of eight clinical officers completed three half-days of didactics and 2 days of hands-on echocardiography training. Clinical officers were evaluated by performing screening echocardiograms on 20 children with known rheumatic heart disease status. They indicated whether children should be referred for follow-up. Referral was indicated if mitral regurgitation measured more than 1.5 cm or there was any measurable aortic regurgitation. The κ statistic was calculated to measure referral agreement with a paediatric cardiologist. Sensitivity and specificity were estimated using a generalised linear mixed model, and were calculated on the basis of World Heart Federation diagnostic criteria. The mean κ statistic comparing clinical officer referrals with the paediatric cardiologist was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.82). The κ value ranged from a minimum of 0.57 to a maximum of 0.90. For rheumatic heart disease diagnosis, sensitivity was 0.91 (95% confidence interval: 0.86, 0.95) and specificity was 0.65 (95% confidence interval: 0.57, 0.72). There was substantial agreement between clinical officers and paediatric cardiologists on whether to refer. Clinical officers had a high sensitivity in detecting rheumatic heart disease. With short-course training, clinical officer-led echo screening for rheumatic heart disease is a viable alternative to physician-led screening in resource-limited settings.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

PubMed

Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

PubMed Central

Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

NADiA ProsVue prostate-specific antigen slope is an independent prognostic marker for identifying men at reduced risk of clinical recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Moul, Judd W; Lilja, Hans; Semmes, O John; Lance, Raymond S; Vessella, Robert L; Fleisher, Martin; Mazzola, Clarisse; Sarno, Mark J; Stevens, Barbara; Klem, Robert E; McDermed, Jonathan E; Triebell, Melissa T; Adams, Thomas H

2012-12-01

To validate the hypothesis that men displaying serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) slopes ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo after prostatectomy, measured using a new immuno-polymerase chain reaction diagnostic test (NADiA ProsVue), have a reduced risk of clinical recurrence as determined by positive biopsy, imaging findings, or death from prostate cancer. From 4 clinical sites, we selected a cohort of 304 men who had been followed up for 17.6 years after prostatectomy for clinical recurrence. We assessed the prognostic value of a PSA slope cutpoint of 2.0 pg/mL/mo against established risk factors to identify men at low risk of clinical recurrence using uni- and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The univariate hazard ratio of a PSA slope >2.0 pg/mL/mo was 18.3 (95% confidence interval 10.6-31.8) compared with a slope ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo (P <.0001). The median disease-free survival interval was 4.8 years vs >10 years in the 2 groups (P <.0001). The multivariate hazard ratio for PSA slope with the covariates of preprostatectomy PSA, pathologic stage, and Gleason score was 9.8 (95% confidence interval 5.4-17.8), an 89.8% risk reduction for men with PSA slopes ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo (P <.0001). The Gleason score (<7 vs ≥ 7) was the only other significant predictor (hazard ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 2.1-13.8, P = .0004). Clinical recurrence after radical prostatectomy is difficult to predict using established risk factors. We have demonstrated that a NADiA ProsVue PSA slope of ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo after prostatectomy is prognostic for a reduced risk of prostate cancer recurrence and adds predictive power to the established risk factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for correlating two autocorrelated climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olafsdottir, Kristin B.; Mudelsee, Manfred

2013-04-01

Estimation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between two time series to evaluate the influences of one time depended variable on another is one of the most often used statistical method in climate sciences. Various methods are used to estimate confidence interval to support the correlation point estimate. Many of them make strong mathematical assumptions regarding distributional shape and serial correlation, which are rarely met. More robust statistical methods are needed to increase the accuracy of the confidence intervals. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, 2003), where the main intention was to get an accurate confidence interval for correlation coefficient between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the process that generated the data into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy for smaller data sizes can be improved. Here we adapt the PearsonT program into a new version called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique, which basically performs a second bootstrap loop or resamples from the bootstrap resamples. It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap is used to preserve the serial correlation of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error based bootstrap Student's t confidence intervals. The performances of the calibrated confidence intervals are examined with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared with the performances of confidence intervals without calibration, that is, PearsonT. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small (i.e., within a few percentage points) already for data sizes as small as 20. One form of climate time series is output from numerical models which simulate the climate system. The method is applied to model data from the high resolution ocean model, INALT01 where the relationship between the Agulhas Leakage and the North Brazil Current is evaluated. Preliminary results show significant correlation between the two variables when there is 10 year lag between them, which is more or less the time that takes the Agulhas Leakage water to reach the North Brazil Current. Mudelsee, M., 2003. Estimating Pearson's correlation coefficient with bootstrap confidence interval from serially dependent time series. Mathematical Geology 35, 651-665.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jakobsson, R.; Bellander, T.; Lundberg, I.

The risk of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) within different occupations was studied, using occupational information obtained from the Swedish 1970 census. Follow-up in the Swedish Cancer Register was carried out from 1971 to 1984. Among male petrol station attendants, 10 cases were observed versus 2.8 expected (observed/expected = 3.6, 95% confidence interval 1.7--6.6). For several decades, Swedish petrol has contained 3--5% of benzene. Thus, a hypothesis was that benzene had contributed to the excess risk. The work histories of the 10 cases were reconstructed through interviews with surviving relatives and were compatible with the hypothesis. However, because the air benzenemore » exposures at petrol stations always have been lower than benzene exposures associated previously with an increased risk of AML, the leukemogenic effect of benzene may have been potentiated by other petrol or vehicle exhaust components. 23 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.« less

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamkins, J.

2015-05-01

We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

A new modeling and inference approach for the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial outcomes.

PubMed

Yang, Song; Ambrosius, Walter T; Fine, Lawrence J; Bress, Adam P; Cushman, William C; Raj, Dominic S; Rehman, Shakaib; Tamariz, Leonardo

2018-06-01

Background/aims In clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes, usually the significance tests and confidence intervals are based on a proportional hazards model. Thus, the temporal pattern of the treatment effect is not directly considered. This could be problematic if the proportional hazards assumption is violated, as such violation could impact both interim and final estimates of the treatment effect. Methods We describe the application of inference procedures developed recently in the literature for time-to-event outcomes when the treatment effect may or may not be time-dependent. The inference procedures are based on a new model which contains the proportional hazards model as a sub-model. The temporal pattern of the treatment effect can then be expressed and displayed. The average hazard ratio is used as the summary measure of the treatment effect. The test of the null hypothesis uses adaptive weights that often lead to improvement in power over the log-rank test. Results Without needing to assume proportional hazards, the new approach yields results consistent with previously published findings in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial. It provides a visual display of the time course of the treatment effect. At four of the five scheduled interim looks, the new approach yields smaller p values than the log-rank test. The average hazard ratio and its confidence interval indicates a treatment effect nearly a year earlier than a restricted mean survival time-based approach. Conclusion When the hazards are proportional between the comparison groups, the new methods yield results very close to the traditional approaches. When the proportional hazards assumption is violated, the new methods continue to be applicable and can potentially be more sensitive to departure from the null hypothesis.

A probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations.

PubMed

He, Yungang; Wang, Minxian; Huang, Xin; Li, Ran; Xu, Hongyang; Xu, Shuhua; Jin, Li

2015-12-01

Human populations around the world encounter various environmental challenges and, consequently, develop genetic adaptations to different selection forces. Identifying the differences in natural selection between populations is critical for understanding the roles of specific genetic variants in evolutionary adaptation. Although numerous methods have been developed to detect genetic loci under recent directional selection, a probabilistic solution for testing and quantifying selection differences between populations is lacking. Here we report the development of a probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations. By use of a probabilistic model of genetic drift and selection, we showed that logarithm odds ratios of allele frequencies provide estimates of the differences in selection coefficients between populations. The estimates approximate a normal distribution, and variance can be estimated using genome-wide variants. This allows us to quantify differences in selection coefficients and to determine the confidence intervals of the estimate. Our work also revealed the link between genetic association testing and hypothesis testing of selection differences. It therefore supplies a solution for hypothesis testing of selection differences. This method was applied to a genome-wide data analysis of Han and Tibetan populations. The results confirmed that both the EPAS1 and EGLN1 genes are under statistically different selection in Han and Tibetan populations. We further estimated differences in the selection coefficients for genetic variants involved in melanin formation and determined their confidence intervals between continental population groups. Application of the method to empirical data demonstrated the outstanding capability of this novel approach for testing and quantifying differences in natural selection. © 2015 He et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: A prospective study from 1964 to 2014.

PubMed

Suárez-Medina, Ramón; Venero-Fernández, Silvia Josefina; Britton, John; Fogarty, Andrew W

2016-09-01

The increase in prevalence of obesity is a possible risk factor for asthma in developed countries. As the people of Cuba experienced an acute population-based decrease in weight in the 1990s, we tested the hypothesis that national weight loss and subsequent weight gain was associated a reciprocal changes in asthma mortality. Data were obtained on mortality rates from asthma and COPD in Cuba from 1964 to 2014, along with data on prevalence of obesity for this period. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify inflexion points in the data. Although the prevalence of obesity from 1990 to 1995 decreased from 14% to 7%, over the same time period the rate of asthma mortality increased from 4.5 deaths per 100,000 population to 5.4 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2010, the obesity prevalence subsequently increased to 15% in 2010, while the asthma mortality rate dropped to 2.3 deaths per 100,000 population. The optimal model for fit of asthma mortality over time gave an increasing linear association from 1964 to 1995 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1993 to 1997), followed by a decrease in asthma mortality rates from 1995 to 1999 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1997 to 2002). These national data do not support the hypothesis that population-based changes in weight are associated with asthma mortality. Other possible explanations for the large decreases in asthma mortality rates include changes in pollution or better delivery of medical care over the same time period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deterministic versus evidence-based attitude towards clinical diagnosis.

PubMed

Soltani, Akbar; Moayyeri, Alireza

2007-08-01

Generally, two basic classes have been proposed for scientific explanation of events. Deductive reasoning emphasizes on reaching conclusions about a hypothesis based on verification of universal laws pertinent to that hypothesis, while inductive or probabilistic reasoning explains an event by calculation of some probabilities for that event to be related to a given hypothesis. Although both types of reasoning are used in clinical practice, evidence-based medicine stresses on the advantages of the second approach for most instances in medical decision making. While 'probabilistic or evidence-based' reasoning seems to involve more mathematical formulas at the first look, this attitude is more dynamic and less imprisoned by the rigidity of mathematics comparing with 'deterministic or mathematical attitude'. In the field of medical diagnosis, appreciation of uncertainty in clinical encounters and utilization of likelihood ratio as measure of accuracy seem to be the most important characteristics of evidence-based doctors. Other characteristics include use of series of tests for refining probability, changing diagnostic thresholds considering external evidences and nature of the disease, and attention to confidence intervals to estimate uncertainty of research-derived parameters.

Knee Instability and Basic and Advanced Function Decline in Knee Osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Sharma, Leena; Chmiel, Joan S; Almagor, Orit; Moisio, Kirsten; Chang, Alison H; Belisle, Laura; Zhang, Yunhui; Hayes, Karen W

2015-08-01

Manifestations of instability in knee osteoarthritis (OA) include low overall knee confidence, low confidence that the knees will not buckle, buckling, and excessive motion during gait. Confidence and buckling may particularly influence activity choices, contributing to events leading to disability. Buckling is more likely to affect advanced than basic functional tasks. In this prospective longitudinal study, we tested the hypothesis that overall knee confidence, buckling confidence, buckling, and frontal plane motion during gait are associated with advanced 2-year function outcomes in persons with knee OA. Persons with knee OA were queried about overall knee confidence (higher score = worse confidence), buckling confidence, and knee buckling, and underwent quantitative gait analysis to quantify varus-valgus excursion and angular velocity. Physical function was assessed using the Late-Life Function and Disability Instrument Basic and Advanced Lower Extremity Domain scores. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the relationship between baseline instability measures and baseline-to-2-year function outcome, adjusting for potential confounders. The sample was comprised of 212 persons (mean age 64.6 years, 76.9% women). Buckling was significantly associated with poor advanced function outcome (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.08, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.03-4.20) but not basic function outcome. Overall knee confidence was significantly associated with advanced outcome (adjusted OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.01-2.70), while associations between buckling confidence and both outcomes approached significance. Neither varus-valgus excursion nor angular velocity during gait was associated with either outcome. Knee buckling and low knee confidence were each associated with poor 2-year advanced function outcomes. Current treatment does not address these modifiable factors; interventions to address them may improve outcome in knee OA. © 2015, American College of Rheumatology.

Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stark, Philip B.

1992-01-01

The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

Multiplicity: discussion points from the Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry multiplicity expert group.

PubMed

Phillips, Alan; Fletcher, Chrissie; Atkinson, Gary; Channon, Eddie; Douiri, Abdel; Jaki, Thomas; Maca, Jeff; Morgan, David; Roger, James Henry; Terrill, Paul

2013-01-01

In May 2012, the Committee of Health and Medicinal Products issued a concept paper on the need to review the points to consider document on multiplicity issues in clinical trials. In preparation for the release of the updated guidance document, Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry held a one-day expert group meeting in January 2013. Topics debated included multiplicity and the drug development process, the usefulness and limitations of newly developed strategies to deal with multiplicity, multiplicity issues arising from interim decisions and multiregional development, and the need for simultaneous confidence intervals (CIs) corresponding to multiple test procedures. A clear message from the meeting was that multiplicity adjustments need to be considered when the intention is to make a formal statement about efficacy or safety based on hypothesis tests. Statisticians have a key role when designing studies to assess what adjustment really means in the context of the research being conducted. More thought during the planning phase needs to be given to multiplicity adjustments for secondary endpoints given these are increasing in importance in differentiating products in the market place. No consensus was reached on the role of simultaneous CIs in the context of superiority trials. It was argued that unadjusted intervals should be employed as the primary purpose of the intervals is estimation, while the purpose of hypothesis testing is to formally establish an effect. The opposing view was that CIs should correspond to the test decision whenever possible. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

2013-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

Attribution of Responsibility and Valence of Success and Failure in Relation to Initial Confidence and Task Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feather, N. T.

1969-01-01

Deals with the hypothesis that initial self-confidence and actual task performance determine whether the subject will attribute responsibility to himself or to luck. The data support the hypothesis and reveal distinct differences between males and female subjects in self-confidence and attribution of responsibility. Tables, graphs, and…

Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousins, R. D.

The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jason E.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

2016-01-01

As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2009-01-01

Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

Statistical inference for tumor growth inhibition T/C ratio.

PubMed

Wu, Jianrong

2010-09-01

The tumor growth inhibition T/C ratio is commonly used to quantify treatment effects in drug screening tumor xenograft experiments. The T/C ratio is converted to an antitumor activity rating using an arbitrary cutoff point and often without any formal statistical inference. Here, we applied a nonparametric bootstrap method and a small sample likelihood ratio statistic to make a statistical inference of the T/C ratio, including both hypothesis testing and a confidence interval estimate. Furthermore, sample size and power are also discussed for statistical design of tumor xenograft experiments. Tumor xenograft data from an actual experiment were analyzed to illustrate the application.

Traumatic Brain Injury, Sleep Quality, and Suicidal Ideation in Iraq/Afghanistan Era Veterans.

PubMed

DeBeer, Bryann B; Kimbrel, Nathan A; Mendoza, Corina; Davidson, Dena; Meyer, Eric C; La Bash, Heidi; Gulliver, Suzy Bird; Morissette, Sandra B

2017-07-01

The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that sleep quality mediates the association between traumatic brain injury (TBI) history and current suicidal ideation. Measures of TBI history, sleep quality, and suicidal ideation were administered to 130 Iraq/Afghanistan veterans. As expected, sleep quality mediated the effect of TBI history on current suicidal ideation (indirect effect, 0.0082; 95% confidence interval, 0.0019-0.0196), such that history of TBI was associated with worse sleep quality, which was, in turn, associated with increased suicidal ideation. These findings highlight the importance of assessing TBI history and sleep quality during suicide risk assessments for veterans.

After p Values: The New Statistics for Undergraduate Neuroscience Education.

PubMed

Calin-Jageman, Robert J

2017-01-01

Statistical inference is a methodological cornerstone for neuroscience education. For many years this has meant inculcating neuroscience majors into null hypothesis significance testing with p values. There is increasing concern, however, about the pervasive misuse of p values. It is time to start planning statistics curricula for neuroscience majors that replaces or de-emphasizes p values. One promising alternative approach is what Cumming has dubbed the "New Statistics", an approach that emphasizes effect sizes, confidence intervals, meta-analysis, and open science. I give an example of the New Statistics in action and describe some of the key benefits of adopting this approach in neuroscience education.

Common Genetic Variant Risk Score Is Associated With Drug-Induced QT Prolongation and Torsade de Pointes Risk: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Strauss, David G; Vicente, Jose; Johannesen, Lars; Blinova, Ksenia; Mason, Jay W; Weeke, Peter; Behr, Elijah R; Roden, Dan M; Woosley, Ray; Kosova, Gulum; Rosenberg, Michael A; Newton-Cheh, Christopher

2017-04-04

Drug-induced QT interval prolongation, a risk factor for life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias, is a potential side effect of many marketed and withdrawn medications. The contribution of common genetic variants previously associated with baseline QT interval to drug-induced QT prolongation and arrhythmias is not known. We tested the hypothesis that a weighted combination of common genetic variants contributing to QT interval at baseline, identified through genome-wide association studies, can predict individual response to multiple QT-prolonging drugs. Genetic analysis of 22 subjects was performed in a secondary analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover trial of 3 QT-prolonging drugs with 15 time-matched QT and plasma drug concentration measurements. Subjects received single doses of dofetilide, quinidine, ranolazine, and placebo. The outcome was the correlation between a genetic QT score comprising 61 common genetic variants and the slope of an individual subject's drug-induced increase in heart rate-corrected QT (QTc) versus drug concentration. The genetic QT score was correlated with drug-induced QTc prolongation. Among white subjects, genetic QT score explained 30% of the variability in response to dofetilide ( r =0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.81; P =0.02), 23% in response to quinidine ( r =0.48; 95% confidence interval, -0.03 to 0.79; P =0.06), and 27% in response to ranolazine ( r =0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.05-0.80; P =0.03). Furthermore, the genetic QT score was a significant predictor of drug-induced torsade de pointes in an independent sample of 216 cases compared with 771 controls ( r 2 =12%, P =1×10 -7 ). We demonstrate that a genetic QT score comprising 61 common genetic variants explains a significant proportion of the variability in drug-induced QT prolongation and is a significant predictor of drug-induced torsade de pointes. These findings highlight an opportunity for recent genetic discoveries to improve individualized risk-benefit assessment for pharmacological therapies. Replication of these findings in larger samples is needed to more precisely estimate variance explained and to establish the individual variants that drive these effects. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01873950. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Race, Ethnicity, Language, Social Class, and Health Communication Inequalities: A Nationally-Representative Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Viswanath, Kasisomayajula; Ackerson, Leland K.

2011-01-01

Background While mass media communications can be an important source of health information, there are substantial social disparities in health knowledge that may be related to media use. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the use of cancer-related health communications is patterned by race, ethnicity, language, and social class. Methodology/Principal Findings In a nationally-representative cross-sectional telephone survey, 5,187 U.S. adults provided information about demographic characteristics, cancer information seeking, and attention to and trust in health information from television, radio, newspaper, magazines, and the Internet. Cancer information seeking was lowest among Spanish-speaking Hispanics (odds ratio: 0.42; 95% confidence interval: 0.28–0.63) compared to non-Hispanic whites. Spanish-speaking Hispanics were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 3.10; 95% confidence interval: 2.07–4.66) and trust (odds ratio: 2.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.53–4.47) health messages from the radio. Non-Hispanic blacks were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 2.39; 95% confidence interval: 1.88–3.04) and trust (odds ratio: 2.16; 95% confidence interval: 1.61–2.90) health messages on television. Those who were college graduates tended to pay more attention to health information from newspapers (odds ratio: 1.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.42–2.75), magazines (odds ratio: 1.86; 95% confidence interval: 1.32–2.60), and the Internet (odds ratio: 4.74; 95% confidence interval: 2.70–8.31) and had less trust in cancer-related health information from television (odds ratio: 0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.32–0.62) and radio (odds ratio: 0.54; 95% confidence interval: 0.34–0.86) compared to those who were not high school graduates. Conclusions/Significance Health media use is patterned by race, ethnicity, language and social class. Providing greater access to and enhancing the quality of health media by taking into account factors associated with social determinants may contribute to addressing social disparities in health. PMID:21267450

Preconceptional and prenatal supplementary folic acid and multivitamin intake and autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Virk, Jasveer; Liew, Zeyan; Olsen, Jørn; Nohr, Ellen A; Catov, Janet M; Ritz, Beate

2016-08-01

To evaluate whether early folic acid supplementation during pregnancy prevents diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders in offspring. Information on autism spectrum disorder diagnosis was obtained from the National Hospital Register and the Central Psychiatric Register. We estimated risk ratios for autism spectrum disorders for children whose mothers took folate or multivitamin supplements from 4 weeks prior from the last menstrual period through to 8 weeks after the last menstrual period (-4 to 8 weeks) by three 4-week periods. We did not find an association between early folate or multivitamin intake for autism spectrum disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.36; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.22), autistic disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.84; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.87-1.69), Asperger's syndrome (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.53; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.46), or pervasive developmental disorder-not otherwise specified (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.54; multivitamin: adjusted risk ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.65-1.17) compared with women reporting no supplement use in the same period. We did not find any evidence to corroborate previous reports of a reduced risk for autism spectrum disorders in offspring of women using folic acid supplements in early pregnancy. © The Author(s) 2015.

Applying Bootstrap Resampling to Compute Confidence Intervals for Various Statistics with R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogan, C. Deha

2017-01-01

Background: Most of the studies in academic journals use p values to represent statistical significance. However, this is not a good indicator of practical significance. Although confidence intervals provide information about the precision of point estimation, they are, unfortunately, rarely used. The infrequent use of confidence intervals might…

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ordinary Least Squares Factor Loadings and Correlations in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Luo, Shanhong

2010-01-01

This article is concerned with using the bootstrap to assign confidence intervals for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in ordinary least squares exploratory factor analysis. Coverage performances of "SE"-based intervals, percentile intervals, bias-corrected percentile intervals, bias-corrected accelerated percentile…

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

2008-08-01

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rukuni, Ruramayi; Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Murphy, Michael F; Roberts, David; Stanworth, Simon J; Knight, Marian

2016-05-01

Antenatal anemia is a major public health problem in the UK, yet there is limited high quality evidence for associated poor clinical outcomes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence and clinical outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population. A retrospective cohort study of 80 422 singleton pregnancies was conducted using data from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank between 1995 and 2012. Antenatal anemia was defined as haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl during pregnancy. Incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals and compared over time using a chi-squared test for trend. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding variables. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval. The overall incidence of antenatal anemia was 9.3 cases/100 singleton pregnancies (95% confidence interval 9.1-9.5), decreasing from 16.9/100 to 4.1/100 singleton pregnancies between 1995 and 2012 (p < 0.001). Maternal anemia was associated with antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.36), postpartum infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.39-2.57), transfusion (adjusted odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.65-2.13) and stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.94), reduced odds of postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86-0.98) and low birthweight (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.86). No other outcomes were statistically significant. This study shows the incidence of antenatal anemia is decreasing steadily within this Scottish population. However, given that anemia is a readily correctable risk factor for major causes of morbidity and mortality in the UK, further work is required to investigate appropriate preventive measures. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Opioid analgesia in mechanically ventilated children: results from the multicenter Measuring Opioid Tolerance Induced by Fentanyl study.

PubMed

Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Clark, Amy E; Willson, Douglas F; Berger, John; Meert, Kathleen L; Zimmerman, Jerry J; Harrison, Rick; Carcillo, Joseph A; Newth, Christopher J L; Bisping, Stephanie; Holubkov, Richard; Dean, J Michael; Nicholson, Carol E

2013-01-01

To examine the clinical factors associated with increased opioid dose among mechanically ventilated children in the pediatric intensive care unit. Prospective, observational study with 100% accrual of eligible patients. Seven pediatric intensive care units from tertiary-care children's hospitals in the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. Four hundred nineteen children treated with morphine or fentanyl infusions. None. Data on opioid use, concomitant therapy, demographic and explanatory variables were collected. Significant variability occurred in clinical practices, with up to 100-fold differences in baseline opioid doses, average daily or total doses, or peak infusion rates. Opioid exposure for 7 or 14 days required doubling of the daily opioid dose in 16% patients (95% confidence interval 12%-19%) and 20% patients (95% confidence interval 16%-24%), respectively. Among patients receiving opioids for longer than 3 days (n = 225), this occurred in 28% (95% confidence interval 22%-33%) and 35% (95% confidence interval 29%-41%) by 7 or 14 days, respectively. Doubling of the opioid dose was more likely to occur following opioid infusions for 7 days or longer (odds ratio 7.9, 95% confidence interval 4.3-14.3; p < 0.001) or co-therapy with midazolam (odds ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4-12.9; p < 0.001), and it was less likely to occur if morphine was used as the primary opioid (vs. fentanyl) (odds ratio 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.25-0.92; p = 0.03), for patients receiving higher initial doses (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98; p < 0.001), or if patients had prior pediatric intensive care unit admissions (odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.89; p = 0.03). Mechanically ventilated children require increasing opioid doses, often associated with prolonged opioid exposure or the need for additional sedation. Efforts to reduce prolonged opioid exposure and clinical practice variation may prevent the complications of opioid therapy.

An analysis of the readability of patient information and consent forms used in research studies in anaesthesia in Australia and New Zealand.

PubMed

Taylor, H E; Bramley, D E P

2012-11-01

The provision of written information is a component of the informed consent process for research participants. We conducted a readability analysis to test the hypothesis that the language used in patient information and consent forms in anaesthesia research in Australia and New Zealand does not meet the readability standards or expectations of the Good Clinical Practice Guidelines, the National Health and Medical Research Council in Australia and the Health Research Council of New Zealand. We calculated readability scores for 40 patient information and consent forms using the Simple Measure of Gobbledygook and Flesch-Kincaid formulas. The mean grade level of patient information and consent forms when using the Simple Measure of Gobbledygook and Flesch-Kincaid readability formulas was 12.9 (standard deviation of 0.8, 95% confidence interval 12.6 to 13.1) and 11.9 (standard deviation 1.1, 95% confidence interval 11.6 to 12.3), respectively. This exceeds the average literacy and comprehension of the general population in Australia and New Zealand. Complex language decreases readability and negatively impacts on the informed consent process. Care should be exercised when providing written information to research participants to ensure language and readability is appropriate for the audience.

Occupational Exposure to Magnetic Fields and Breast Cancer Among Women Textile Workers in Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Li, Wenjin; Ray, Roberta M.; Thomas, David B.; Yost, Michael; Davis, Scott; Breslow, Norman; Gao, Dao Li; Fitzgibbons, E. Dawn; Camp, Janice E.; Wong, Eva; Wernli, Karen J.; Checkoway, Harvey

2013-01-01

Exposure to magnetic fields (MFs) is hypothesized to increase the risk of breast cancer by reducing production of melatonin by the pineal gland. A nested case-cohort study was conducted to investigate the association between occupational exposure to MFs and the risk of breast cancer within a cohort of 267,400 female textile workers in Shanghai, China. The study included 1,687 incident breast cancer cases diagnosed from 1989 to 2000 and 4,702 noncases selected from the cohort. Subjects’ complete work histories were linked to a job–exposure matrix developed specifically for the present study to estimate cumulative MF exposure. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Cox proportional hazards modeling that was adapted for the case-cohort design. Hazard ratios were estimated in relation to cumulative exposure during a woman's entire working years. No association was observed between cumulative exposure to MFs and overall risk of breast cancer. The hazard ratio for the highest compared with the lowest quartile of cumulative exposure was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.87, 1.21). Similar null findings were observed when exposures were lagged and stratified by age at breast cancer diagnosis. The findings do not support the hypothesis that MF exposure increases the risk of breast cancer. PMID:24043439

Heavy rainfall events and diarrhea incidence: the role of social and environmental factors.

PubMed

Carlton, Elizabeth J; Eisenberg, Joseph N S; Goldstick, Jason; Cevallos, William; Trostle, James; Levy, Karen

2014-02-01

The impact of heavy rainfall events on waterborne diarrheal diseases is uncertain. We conducted weekly, active surveillance for diarrhea in 19 villages in Ecuador from February 2004 to April 2007 in order to evaluate whether biophysical and social factors modify vulnerability to heavy rainfall events. A heavy rainfall event was defined as 24-hour rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile value (56 mm) in a given 7-day period within the study period. Mixed-effects Poisson regression was used to test the hypothesis that rainfall in the prior 8 weeks, water and sanitation conditions, and social cohesion modified the relationship between heavy rainfall events and diarrhea incidence. Heavy rainfall events were associated with increased diarrhea incidence following dry periods (incidence rate ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.87) and decreased diarrhea incidence following wet periods (incidence rate ratio = 0.74, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.92). Drinking water treatment reduced the deleterious impacts of heavy rainfall events following dry periods. Sanitation, hygiene, and social cohesion did not modify the relationship between heavy rainfall events and diarrhea. Heavy rainfall events appear to affect diarrhea incidence through contamination of drinking water, and they present the greatest health risks following periods of low rainfall. Interventions designed to increase drinking water treatment may reduce climate vulnerability.

Association of Intrauterine and Early-Life Exposures With Age at Menopause in the Sister Study

PubMed Central

Steiner, Anne Z.; D'Aloisio, Aimee A.; DeRoo, Lisa A.; Sandler, Dale P.; Baird, Donna D.

2010-01-01

Oocytes are formed in utero; menopause occurs when the oocyte pool is depleted. The authors hypothesized that early-life events could affect the number of a woman's oocytes and determine age at menopause. To test their hypothesis, the authors conducted a secondary analysis of baseline data from 22,165 participants in the Sister Study (2003–2007) who were aged 35–59 years at enrollment. To estimate the association between early-life events and age at natural menopause, the authors used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals, adjusting for current age, race/ethnicity, education, childhood family income, and smoking history. Earlier menopause was associated with in-utero diethylstilbestrol exposure (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27, 1.65). Suggestive associations included maternal prepregnancy diabetes (HR = 1.33, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.98) and low birth weight (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.20). Having a mother aged 35 years or older at birth appeared to be associated with a later age at menopause (HR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.01). Birth order, in-utero smoke exposure, and having been breastfed were not related to age at menopause. In-utero and perinatal events may subsequently influence age at menopause. PMID:20534821

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

2007-01-01

Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnette, J. Jackson

2005-01-01

An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

1991-01-01

A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

Depressive symptoms in nonresident african american fathers and involvement with their sons.

PubMed

Davis, R Neal; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Clark, Sarah J; Davis, Matthew M

2009-12-01

Our objective was to determine whether paternal depressive symptoms were associated with less father involvement among African American fathers not living with their children (ie, nonresident fathers). We analyzed survey data for 345 fathers enrolled in a program for nonresident African American fathers and their preteen sons. Father involvement included measures of contact, closeness, monitoring, communication, and conflict. We used bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analysis to examine associations between father involvement and depressive symptoms. Thirty-six percent of fathers reported moderate depressive symptoms, and 11% reported severe depressive symptoms. In bivariate analyses, depressive symptoms were associated with less contact, less closeness, low monitoring, and increased conflict. In multivariate analyses controlling for basic demographic features, fathers with moderate depressive symptoms were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-2.8]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.5]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.2]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-3.6]). Fathers with severe depressive symptoms also were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 3.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-7.2]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.7]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-7.1]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-5.9]). Paternal depressive symptoms may be an important, but modifiable, barrier for nonresident African American fathers willing to be more involved with their children.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Steiner, Markus Fc; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. A retrospective, cohort study. Scotland. 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73-86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56-84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136-169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56-82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120-175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39-74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18-53) was better than the reference population. Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Risk factors of childhood asthma in children attending Lyari General Hospital.

PubMed

Kamran, Amber; Hanif, Shahina; Murtaza, Ghulam

2015-06-01

To determine the factors associated with asthma in children. The case-control study was conducted in the paediatrics clinic of Lyari General Hospital, Karachi, from May to October 2010. Children 1-15 years of age attending the clinic represented the cases, while the control group had children who were closely related (sibling or cousin) to the cases but did not have the symptoms of disease at the time. Data was collected through a proforma and analysed using SPSS 10. Of the total 346 subjects, 173(50%) each comprised the two groups. According to univariable analysis the risk factors were presence of at least one smoker (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-5.8), resident of kacha house (odds ratio: 16.2; 95% confidence interval: 3.8-69.5),living in room without windows (odds ratio: 9.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-40.9) and living in houses without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-2.4).Using multivariable modelling, family history of asthma (odds ratio: 5.9; 95% confidence interval: 3.1-11.6), presence of at least one smoker at home (odds ratio: 4.1; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-7.2), people living in a room without a window (odds ratio: 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-26.3) and people living in an area without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-4.31) were found to be independent risk factors of asthma in children adjusting for age, gender and history of weaning. Family history of asthma, children living with at least one smoker at home, room without windows and people living in an area without sunlight were major risk factors of childhood asthma.

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

Risk factors for low birth weight according to the multiple logistic regression model. A retrospective cohort study in José María Morelos municipality, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Franco Monsreal, José; Tun Cobos, Miriam Del Ruby; Hernández Gómez, José Ricardo; Serralta Peraza, Lidia Esther Del Socorro

2018-01-17

Low birth weight has been an enigma for science over time. There have been many researches on its causes and its effects. Low birth weight is an indicator that predicts the probability of a child surviving. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. Multiple logistic regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for the analysis of data in both clinical and epidemiology settings, as well as in public health. To assess in a multivariate fashion the importance of 17 independent variables in low birth weight (dependent variable) of children born in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Analytical observational epidemiological cohort study with retrospective temporality. Births that met the inclusion criteria occurred in the "Hospital Integral Jose Maria Morelos" of the Ministry of Health corresponding to the Maya municipality of Jose Maria Morelos during the period from August 1, 2014 to July 31, 2015. The total number of newborns recorded was 1,147; 84 of which (7.32%) had low birth weight. To estimate the independent association between the explanatory variables (potential risk factors) and the response variable, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software. In ascending numerical order values of odds ratio > 1 indicated the positive contribution of explanatory variables or possible risk factors: "unmarried" marital status (1.076, 95% confidence interval: 0.550 to 2.104); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.08, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 1.84); history of abortion(s) (1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.44 to 2.93); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 2.76); number of prenatal consultations ≤ 5 (1.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.94 to 3.66); maternal age ≥ 36 years (3.5, 95% confidence interval: 0.40 to 30.47); maternal age ≤ 19 years (3.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 29.87); number of deliveries = 1 (3.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 44.85); personal pathological history (4.78, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 10.59); pathological obstetric history (5.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.66 to 15.18); maternal height < 150 cm (5.16, 95% confidence interval: 3.08 to 8.65); number of births ≥ 5 (5.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.51 to 69.99); and smoking (15.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 227.97). Four of the independent variables (personal pathological history, obstetric pathological history, maternal stature <150 centimeters and smoking) showed a significant positive contribution, thus they can be considered as clear risk factors for low birth weight. The use of the logistic regression model in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, will allow estimating the probability of low birth weight for each pregnant woman in the future, which will be useful for the health authorities of the region.

Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

2000-01-01

In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oranje, Andreas

2006-01-01

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Patient, surgeon, and hospital disparities associated with benign hysterectomy approach and perioperative complications.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Hutfless, Susan; Makary, Martin A; Sinno, Abdulrahman K; Tanner, Edward J; Stone, Rebecca L; Wang, Karen; Fader, Amanda N

2017-05-01

Hysterectomy is among the most common major surgical procedures performed in women. Approximately 450,000 hysterectomy procedures are performed each year in the United States for benign indications. However, little is known regarding contemporary US hysterectomy trends for women with benign disease with respect to operative technique and perioperative complications, and the association between these 2 factors with patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics. We sought to describe contemporary hysterectomy trends and explore associations between patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics with surgical approach and perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by general gynecologists from July 2012 through September 2014 were analyzed in the all-payer Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. We excluded hysterectomies performed by gynecologic oncologists, reproductive endocrinologists, and female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgeons. We included both open hysterectomies and those performed by minimally invasive surgery, which included vaginal hysterectomies. Perioperative complications were defined using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators. Surgeon hysterectomy volume during the 2-year study period was analyzed (0-5 cases annually = very low, 6-10 = low, 11-20 = medium, and ≥21 = high). We utilized logistic regression and negative binomial regression to identify patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics associated with minimally invasive surgery utilization and perioperative complications, respectively. A total of 5660 hospitalizations were identified during the study period. Most patients (61.5%) had an open hysterectomy; 38.5% underwent a minimally invasive surgery procedure (25.1% robotic, 46.6% laparoscopic, 28.3% vaginal). Most surgeons (68.2%) were very low- or low-volume surgeons. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing minimally invasive surgery included older patient age (reference 45-64 years; 20-44 years: adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28), black race (reference white; adjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.78), Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.80), smaller hospital (reference large; small: adjusted odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.45; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.96), medium hospital hysterectomy volume (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 100-200: adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87), and medium vs high surgeon volume (reference high; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). Complications occurred in 25.8% of open and 8.2% of minimally invasive hysterectomies (P < .0001). Minimally invasive hysterectomy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.27) and large hysterectomy volume hospitals (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 1-100: adjusted odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-3.20; 101-200: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.16) were associated with fewer complications, while patient payer, including Medicare (reference private; adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.61), Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.04), and self-pay status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.12), and very-low and low surgeon hysterectomy volume (reference ≥21 cases; 1-5 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.47; 6-10 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.23) were associated with perioperative complications. Use of minimally invasive hysterectomy for benign indications remains variable, with most patients undergoing open, more morbid procedures. Older and black patients and smaller hospitals are associated with open hysterectomy. Patient race and payer status, hysterectomy approach, and surgeon volume were associated with perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by high-volume surgeons or by minimally invasive techniques may represent an opportunity to reduce preventable harm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Registered Replication Report: Strack, Martin, & Stepper (1988).

PubMed

Acosta, Alberto; Adams, Reginald B; Albohn, Daniel N; Allard, Eric S; Beek, Titia; Benning, Stephen D; Blouin- Hudon, Eve-Marie; Bulnes, Luis Carlo; Caldwell, Tracy L; Calin-Jageman, Robert J; Capaldi, Colin A; Carfagno, Nicholas S; Chasten, Kelsie T; Cleeremans, Axel; Connell, Louise; DeCicco, Jennifer M.; Dijkhoff, Laura; Dijkstra, Katinka; Fischer, Agneta H; Foroni, Francesco; Gronau, Quentin F; Hess, Ursula; Holmes, Kevin J; Jones, Jacob L H; Klein, Olivier; Koch, Christopher; Korb, Sebastian; Lewinski, Peter; Liao, Julia D; Lund, Sophie; Lupiáñez, Juan; Lynott, Dermot; Nance, Christin N; Oosterwijk, Suzanne; Özdog˘ru, Asil Ali; Pacheco-Unguetti, Antonia Pilar; Pearson, Bethany; Powis, Christina; Riding, Sarah; Roberts, Tomi-Ann; Rumiati, Raffaella I; Senden, Morgane; Shea-Shumsky, Noah B; Sobocko, Karin; Soto, Jose A; Steiner, Troy G; Talarico, Jennifer M; vanAllen, Zack M; Wagenmakers, E-J; Vandekerckhove, Marie; Wainwright, Bethany; Wayand, Joseph F; Zeelenberg, Rene; Zetzer, Emily E; Zwaan, Rolf A

2016-11-01

According to the facial feedback hypothesis, people's affective responses can be influenced by their own facial expression (e.g., smiling, pouting), even when their expression did not result from their emotional experiences. For example, Strack, Martin, and Stepper (1988) instructed participants to rate the funniness of cartoons using a pen that they held in their mouth. In line with the facial feedback hypothesis, when participants held the pen with their teeth (inducing a "smile"), they rated the cartoons as funnier than when they held the pen with their lips (inducing a "pout"). This seminal study of the facial feedback hypothesis has not been replicated directly. This Registered Replication Report describes the results of 17 independent direct replications of Study 1 from Strack et al. (1988), all of which followed the same vetted protocol. A meta-analysis of these studies examined the difference in funniness ratings between the "smile" and "pout" conditions. The original Strack et al. (1988) study reported a rating difference of 0.82 units on a 10-point Likert scale. Our meta-analysis revealed a rating difference of 0.03 units with a 95% confidence interval ranging from -0.11 to 0.16. © The Author(s) 2016.

Combining evidence using likelihood ratios in writer verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srihari, Sargur; Kovalenko, Dimitry; Tang, Yi; Ball, Gregory

2013-01-01

Forensic identification is the task of determining whether or not observed evidence arose from a known source. It involves determining a likelihood ratio (LR) - the ratio of the joint probability of the evidence and source under the identification hypothesis (that the evidence came from the source) and under the exclusion hypothesis (that the evidence did not arise from the source). In LR- based decision methods, particularly handwriting comparison, a variable number of input evidences is used. A decision based on many pieces of evidence can result in nearly the same LR as one based on few pieces of evidence. We consider methods for distinguishing between such situations. One of these is to provide confidence intervals together with the decisions and another is to combine the inputs using weights. We propose a new method that generalizes the Bayesian approach and uses an explicitly defined discount function. Empirical evaluation with several data sets including synthetically generated ones and handwriting comparison shows greater flexibility of the proposed method.

Statistics for Radiology Research.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Subhas, Naveen; Polster, Joshua

2017-02-01

Biostatistics is an essential component in most original research studies in imaging. In this article we discuss five key statistical concepts for study design and analyses in modern imaging research: statistical hypothesis testing, particularly focusing on noninferiority studies; imaging outcomes especially when there is no reference standard; dealing with the multiplicity problem without spending all your study power; relevance of confidence intervals in reporting and interpreting study results; and finally tools for assessing quantitative imaging biomarkers. These concepts are presented first as examples of conversations between investigator and biostatistician, and then more detailed discussions of the statistical concepts follow. Three skeletal radiology examples are used to illustrate the concepts. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Opioid Analgesics and Adverse Outcomes among Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Ishida, Julie H; McCulloch, Charles E; Steinman, Michael A; Grimes, Barbara A; Johansen, Kirsten L

2018-05-07

Patients on hemodialysis frequently experience pain and may be particularly vulnerable to opioid-related complications. However, data evaluating the risks of opioid use in patients on hemodialysis are limited. Using the US Renal Data System, we conducted a cohort study evaluating the association between opioid use (modeled as a time-varying exposure and expressed in standardized oral morphine equivalents) and time to first emergency room visit or hospitalization for altered mental status, fall, and fracture among 140,899 Medicare-covered adults receiving hemodialysis in 2011. We evaluated risk according to average daily total opioid dose (>60 mg, ≤60 mg, and per 60-mg dose increment) and specific agents (per 60-mg dose increment). The median age was 61 years old, 52% were men, and 50% were white. Sixty-four percent received opioids, and 17% had an episode of altered mental status (15,658 events), fall (7646 events), or fracture (4151 events) in 2011. Opioid use was associated with risk for all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner: altered mental status (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.34; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 1.78; hazard ratio, 1.29 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.33), fall (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.36; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.61; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.05), and fracture (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.33 to 1.56; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.44 to 1.89; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.05). All agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of altered mental status, and several agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of fall and fracture. Opioids were associated with adverse outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, and this risk was present even at lower dosing and for agents that guidelines have recommended for use. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Pregnancy outcome in joint hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Sundelin, Heléne E K; Stephansson, Olof; Johansson, Kari; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-01-01

An increased risk of preterm birth in women with joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is suspected. In this nationwide cohort study from 1997 through 2011, women with either joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome or both disorders were identified through the Swedish Patient Register, and linked to the Medical Birth Register. Thereby, 314 singleton births to women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome before delivery were identified. These births were compared with 1 247 864 singleton births to women without a diagnosis of joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. We used logistic regression, adjusted for maternal age, smoking, parity, and year of birth, to calculate adjusted odds ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome was not associated with any of our outcomes: preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.2), preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-2.2), cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.2), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.2-7.9), low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.7-3.6), small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4-1.8) or large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6-2.1). Examining only women with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (n = 62), we found a higher risk of induction of labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.6) and amniotomy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.0-7.1). No excess risks for adverse pregnancy outcome were seen in joint hypermobility syndrome. Women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome do not seem to be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2016-09-20

Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire's internal consistency was moderate (Cronbach's alpha = 0.56). The pilot-phase shows promising results concerning acceptability and feasibility. Pilot randomised controlled trial results indicate that the patient information is well understood and that knowledge gain on confidence intervals can be assessed with a set of six questions. German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00008561 . Registered 8th of June 2015.

Ethnic Differences in Incidence and Outcomes of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome.

PubMed

Banh, Tonny H M; Hussain-Shamsy, Neesha; Patel, Viral; Vasilevska-Ristovska, Jovanka; Borges, Karlota; Sibbald, Cathryn; Lipszyc, Deborah; Brooke, Josefina; Geary, Denis; Langlois, Valerie; Reddon, Michele; Pearl, Rachel; Levin, Leo; Piekut, Monica; Licht, Christoph P B; Radhakrishnan, Seetha; Aitken-Menezes, Kimberly; Harvey, Elizabeth; Hebert, Diane; Piscione, Tino D; Parekh, Rulan S

2016-10-07

Ethnic differences in outcomes among children with nephrotic syndrome are unknown. We conducted a longitudinal study at a single regional pediatric center comparing ethnic differences in incidence from 2001 to 2011 census data and longitudinal outcomes, including relapse rates, time to first relapse, frequently relapsing disease, and use of cyclophosphamide. Among 711 children, 24% were European, 33% were South Asian, 10% were East/Southeast Asian, and 33% were of other origins. Over 10 years, the overall incidence increased from 1.99/100,000 to 4.71/100,000 among children ages 1-18 years old. In 2011, South Asians had a higher incidence rate ratio of 6.61 (95% confidence interval, 3.16 to 15.1) compared with Europeans. East/Southeast Asians had a similar incidence rate ratio (0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 2.94) to Europeans. We determined outcomes in 455 children from the three largest ethnic groups with steroid-sensitive disease over a median of 4 years. South Asian and East/Southeast Asian children had significantly lower odds of frequently relapsing disease at 12 months (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.77; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 0.51), fewer subsequent relapses (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.81; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 0.91), lower risk of a first relapse (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.83; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.68), and lower use of cyclophosphamide (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.53 to 1.28; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.71) compared with European children. Despite the higher incidence among South Asians, South and East/Southeast Asian children have significantly less complicated clinical outcomes compared with Europeans. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

Route of Delivery Modulates the Efficacy of Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy for Myocardial Infarction: A Meta-Analysis of Preclinical Studies and Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Kanelidis, Anthony J; Premer, Courtney; Lopez, Juan; Balkan, Wayne; Hare, Joshua M

2017-03-31

Accumulating data support a therapeutic role for mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) therapy; however, there is no consensus on the optimal route of delivery. We tested the hypothesis that the route of MSC delivery influences the reduction in infarct size and improvement in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). We performed a meta-analysis investigating the effect of MSC therapy in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and chronic ischemic cardiomyopathy preclinical studies (58 studies; n=1165 mouse, rat, swine) which revealed a reduction in infarct size and improvement of LVEF in all animal models. Route of delivery was analyzed in AMI swine studies and clinical trials (6 clinical trials; n=334 patients). In AMI swine studies, transendocardial stem cell injection reduced infarct size (n=49, 9.4% reduction; 95% confidence interval, -15.9 to -3.0), whereas direct intramyocardial injection, intravenous infusion, and intracoronary infusion indicated no improvement. Similarly, transendocardial stem cell injection improved LVEF (n=65, 9.1% increase; 95% confidence interval, 3.7 to 14.5), as did direct intramyocardial injection and intravenous infusion, whereas intracoronary infusion demonstrated no improvement. In humans, changes of LVEF paralleled these results, with transendocardial stem cell injection improving LVEF (n=46, 7.0% increase; 95% confidence interval, 2.7 to 11.3), as did intravenous infusion, but again intracoronary infusion demonstrating no improvement. MSC therapy improves cardiac function in animal models of both AMI and chronic ischemic cardiomyopathy. The route of delivery seems to play a role in modulating the efficacy of MSC therapy in AMI swine studies and clinical trials, suggesting the superiority of transendocardial stem cell injection because of its reduction in infarct size and improvement of LVEF, which has important implications for the design of future studies. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Burden of Intracranial Atherosclerosis Is Associated With Long-Term Vascular Outcome in Patients With Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Kim, Byung-Su; Chung, Pil-Wook; Park, Kwang-Yeol; Won, Hong-Hee; Bang, Oh Young; Chung, Chin-Sang; Lee, Kwang Ho; Kim, Gyeong-Moon

2017-10-01

Ischemic stroke patients often have intracranial atherosclerosis (ICAS), despite heterogeneity in the cause of stroke. We tested the hypothesis that ICAS burden can independently reflect the risk of long-term vascular outcome. This was a retrospective cohort study analyzing data from a prospective stroke registry enrolling consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. A total of 1081 patients were categorized into no ICAS, single ICAS, and advanced ICAS (ICAS ≥2 different intracranial arteries) groups. Primary and secondary end points were time to occurrence of recurrent ischemic stroke and composite vascular outcome, respectively. Study end points by ICAS burden were compared using Cox proportional hazards models in overall and propensity-matched patients. ICAS was present in 405 patients (37.3%). During a median 5-year follow-up, recurrent stroke and composite vascular outcome occurred in 6.8% and 16.8% of patients, respectively. As the number of ICAS increased, the risk for study end points increased after adjustment of potential covariates (hazard ratio per 1 increase in ICAS, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.42 for recurrent ischemic stroke and hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.33 for composite vascular outcome). The hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for recurrent stroke and composite vascular outcome in patients with advanced ICAS compared with those without ICAS were 1.56 (0.88-2.74) and 1.72 (1.17-2.53), respectively, in the overall patients. The corresponding values in the propensity-matched patients were 1.28 (0.71-2.30) and 1.95 (1.27-2.99), respectively. ICAS burden was independently associated with the risk of subsequent composite vascular outcome in patients with ischemic stroke. These findings suggest that ICAS burden can reflect the risk of long-term vascular outcome. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Rate of Contrast Extravasation on Computed Tomographic Angiography Predicts Hematoma Expansion and Mortality in Primary Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Brouwers, H Bart; Battey, Thomas W K; Musial, Hayley H; Ciura, Viesha A; Falcone, Guido J; Ayres, Alison M; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Schwab, Kristin; Viswanathan, Anand; Anderson, Christopher D; Greenberg, Steven M; Pomerantz, Stuart R; Ortiz, Claudia J; Goldstein, Joshua N; Gonzalez, R Gilberto; Rosand, Jonathan; Romero, Javier M

2015-09-01

In primary intracerebral hemorrhage, the presence of contrast extravasation after computed tomographic angiography (CTA), termed the spot sign, predicts hematoma expansion and mortality. Because the biological underpinnings of the spot sign are not fully understood, we investigated whether the rate of contrast extravasation, which may reflect the rate of bleeding, predicts expansion and mortality beyond the simple presence of the spot sign. Consecutive intracerebral hemorrhage patients with first-pass CTA followed by a 90-second delayed postcontrast CT (delayed CTA) were included. CTAs were reviewed for spot sign presence by 2 blinded readers. Spot sign volumes on first-pass and delayed CTA and intracerebral hemorrhage volumes were measured using semiautomated software. Extravasation rates were calculated and tested for association with hematoma expansion and mortality using uni- and multivariable logistic regressions. One hundred and sixty-two patients were included, 48 (30%) of whom had ≥1 spot sign. Median spot sign volume was 0.04 mL on first-pass CTA and 0.4 mL on delayed CTA. Median extravasation rate was 0.23 mL/min overall and 0.30 mL/min among expanders versus 0.07 mL/min in nonexpanders. Extravasation rates were also significantly higher in patients who died in hospital: 0.27 mL/min versus 0.04 mL/min. In multivariable analysis, the extravasation rate was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.09 [95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.18], P=0.004), 90-day mortality (odds ratio, 1.15 [95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.27]; P=0.0004), and hematoma expansion (odds ratio, 1.03 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.08]; P=0.047). Contrast extravasation rate, or spot sign growth, further refines the ability to predict hematoma expansion and mortality. Our results support the hypothesis that the spot sign directly measures active bleeding in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Role of right ventricle and dynamic pulmonary hypertension on determining ΔVO2/ΔWork Rate flattening: insights from cardiopulmonary exercise test combined with exercise echocardiography.

PubMed

Bandera, Francesco; Generati, Greta; Pellegrino, Marta; Donghi, Valeria; Alfonzetti, Eleonora; Gaeta, Maddalena; Villani, Simona; Guazzi, Marco

2014-09-01

Several cardiovascular diseases are characterized by an impaired O2 kinetic during exercise. The lack of a linear increase of Δoxygen consumption (VO2)/ΔWork Rate (WR) relationship, as assessed by expired gas analysis, is considered an indicator of abnormal cardiovascular efficiency. We aimed at describing the frequency of ΔVO2/ΔWR flattening in a symptomatic population of cardiac patients, characterizing its functional profile, and testing the hypothesis that dynamic pulmonary hypertension and right ventricular contractile reserve play a major role as cardiac determinants. We studied 136 patients, with different cardiovascular diseases, referred for exertional dyspnoea. Cardiopulmonary exercise test combined with simultaneous exercise echocardiography was performed using a symptom-limited protocol. ΔVO2/ΔWR flattening was observed in 36 patients (group A, 26.5% of population) and was associated with a globally worse functional profile (reduced peak VO2, anaerobic threshold, O2 pulse, impaired VE/VCO2). At univariate analysis, exercise ejection fraction, exercise mitral regurgitation, rest and exercise tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, exercise systolic pulmonary artery pressure, and exercise cardiac output were all significantly (P<0.05) impaired in group A. The multivariate analysis identified exercise systolic pulmonary artery pressure (odds ratio, 1.06; confidence interval, 1.01-1.11; P=0.01) and exercise tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (odds ratio, 0.88; confidence interval, 0.80-0.97; P=0.01) as main cardiac determinants of ΔVO2/ΔWR flattening; female sex was strongly associated (odds ratio, 6.10; confidence interval, 2.11-17.7; P<0.01). In patients symptomatic for dyspnea, the occurrence of ΔVO2/ΔWR flattening reflects a significantly impaired functional phenotype whose main cardiac determinants are the excessive systolic pulmonary artery pressure increase and the reduced peak right ventricular longitudinal systolic function. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Short communication: use of a mechanical brush by Holstein dairy cattle around parturition.

PubMed

Newby, Nathalie C; Duffield, Todd F; Pearl, David L; Leslie, Ken E; LeBlanc, Stephen J; von Keyserlingk, Marina A G

2013-04-01

Grooming is a normal behavior that may contribute to relief of stress. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of access to a mechanical brush on auto-grooming behavior in parturient cows. The hypothesis was that cows would increase the total time spent scratching using the brush if they had access to a brush around the time of calving, whereas auto-grooming would be lower for the brush group compared with the no-brush group. The use of a mechanical brush was analyzed both in a group-housed pen (72 to 48 h before calving) and in an individual maternity pen (6h before to 6h after calving) in 16 multiparous Holstein cows. In the maternity pen, cows were randomly assigned to have access to the brush or not. The provision of a mechanical brush in the individual maternity pen did not change the amount of time spent auto-grooming but cows did use the brush before calving and after the calf was removed. Despite being housed in pens containing a brush, cows failed to use it when the calf was present. However, cows with access to a brush spent more time licking their calves in the first hour postcalving (β=8.7 min; 95% confidence interval: 1.5, 15.8) than cows that did not have access to a brush. Regardless of treatment, cows increased the time spent auto-grooming and scratching following separation of their newborn calf (β=1.4 min; 95% confidence interval: 0.46, 2.3 and β=0.07 min; 95% confidence interval: 0.02, 0.12, respectively). Further research is warranted to investigate possible benefits of mechanical brush devices at the time of calving, particularly for cows that experience difficult calving and require manual or mechanical assistance. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of Lifecourse Socioeconomic Status with Chronic Inflammation and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: The Whitehall II Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Stringhini, Silvia; Batty, G. David; Bovet, Pascal; Shipley, Martin J.; Marmot, Michael G.; Kumari, Meena; Tabak, Adam G.; Kivimäki, Mika

2013-01-01

Background Socioeconomic adversity in early life has been hypothesized to “program” a vulnerable phenotype with exaggerated inflammatory responses, so increasing the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in adulthood. The aim of this study is to test this hypothesis by assessing the extent to which the association between lifecourse socioeconomic status and type 2 diabetes incidence is explained by chronic inflammation. Methods and Findings We use data from the British Whitehall II study, a prospective occupational cohort of adults established in 1985. The inflammatory markers C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 were measured repeatedly and type 2 diabetes incidence (new cases) was monitored over an 18-year follow-up (from 1991–1993 until 2007–2009). Our analytical sample consisted of 6,387 non-diabetic participants (1,818 women), of whom 731 (207 women) developed type 2 diabetes over the follow-up. Cumulative exposure to low socioeconomic status from childhood to middle age was associated with an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes in adulthood (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.96, 95% confidence interval: 1.48–2.58 for low cumulative lifecourse socioeconomic score and HR = 1.55, 95% confidence interval: 1.26–1.91 for low-low socioeconomic trajectory). 25% of the excess risk associated with cumulative socioeconomic adversity across the lifecourse and 32% of the excess risk associated with low-low socioeconomic trajectory was attributable to chronically elevated inflammation (95% confidence intervals 16%–58%). Conclusions In the present study, chronic inflammation explained a substantial part of the association between lifecourse socioeconomic disadvantage and type 2 diabetes. Further studies should be performed to confirm these findings in population-based samples, as the Whitehall II cohort is not representative of the general population, and to examine the extent to which social inequalities attributable to chronic inflammation are reversible. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23843750

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

2016-04-01

Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith's method provide nominal or close to nominal coverage when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05), as is the case in most community intervention trials. This study concludes that when a binary outcome variable is measured in a small number of large clusters, confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient may be constructed by dividing existing clusters into sub-clusters (e.g. groups of 5) and using Smith's method. The resulting confidence intervals provide nominal or close to nominal coverage across a wide range of parameters when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05). Application of this method should provide investigators with a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with a point estimator of the intraclass correlation coefficient used for determining the sample size needed for a newly designed community-based trial. © The Author(s) 2015.

Stratified exact tests for the weak causal null hypothesis in randomized trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Chiba, Yasutaka

2017-09-01

Fisher's exact test is commonly used to compare two groups when the outcome is binary in randomized trials. In the context of causal inference, this test explores the sharp causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal effect of treatment is the same for all subjects), but not the weak causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal risks are the same in the two groups). Therefore, in general, rejection of the null hypothesis by Fisher's exact test does not mean that the causal risk difference is not zero. Recently, Chiba (Journal of Biometrics and Biostatistics 2015; 6: 244) developed a new exact test for the weak causal null hypothesis when the outcome is binary in randomized trials; the new test is not based on any large sample theory and does not require any assumption. In this paper, we extend the new test; we create a version of the test applicable to a stratified analysis. The stratified exact test that we propose is general in nature and can be used in several approaches toward the estimation of treatment effects after adjusting for stratification factors. The stratified Fisher's exact test of Jung (Biometrical Journal 2014; 56: 129-140) tests the sharp causal null hypothesis. This test applies a crude estimator of the treatment effect and can be regarded as a special case of our proposed exact test. Our proposed stratified exact test can be straightforwardly extended to analysis of noninferiority trials and to construct the associated confidence interval. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Fathy, Cherie; Kim, Jessica; Niemeyer, Katherine; Ramirez, David; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-11-01

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Singer, Marc A; Nelson, Richard L

2002-12-01

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries is an appealing management option; however, uncertainty about its safety persists. This study was conducted to compare the morbidity and mortality of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries by use of a meta-analysis of randomized, prospective trials. We searched for prospective, randomized trials in MEDLINE (1966 to November 2001), the Cochrane Library, and EMBase using the terms colon, penetrating, injury, colostomy, prospective, and randomized. Studies were included if they were randomized, controlled trials that compared the outcomes of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries. Five studies were included. Reviewers performed data extraction independently. Outcomes evaluated from each trial included mortality, total complications, infectious complications, intra-abdominal infections, wound complications, penetrating abdominal trauma index, and length of stay. Peto odds ratios for combined effect were calculated with a 95 percent confidence interval for each outcome. Heterogeneity was also assessed for each outcome. The penetrating abdominal trauma index of included subjects did not differ significantly between studies. Mortality was not significantly different between groups (odds ratio, 1.70; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51-5.66). However, total complications (odds ratio, 0.28; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.18-0.42), total infectious complications (odds ratio, 0.41; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.27-0.63), abdominal infections including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.59; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.38-0.94), abdominal infections excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.52; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.31-0.86), wound complications including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.55; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.34-0.89), and wound complications excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.43; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.25-0.76) all significantly favored primary repair. Meta-analysis of currently published randomized, controlled trials favors primary repair over fecal diversion for penetrating colon injuries.

Bullying and mental health and suicidal behaviour among 14- to 15-year-olds in a representative sample of Australian children.

PubMed

Ford, Rebecca; King, Tania; Priest, Naomi; Kavanagh, Anne

2017-09-01

To provide the first Australian population-based estimates of the association between bullying and adverse mental health outcomes and suicidality among Australian adolescents. Analysis of data from 3537 adolescents, aged 14-15 years from Wave 6 of the K-cohort of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children was conducted. We used Poisson and linear regression to estimate associations between bullying type (none, relational-verbal, physical, both types) and role (no role, victim, bully, victim and bully), and mental health (measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, symptoms of anxiety and depression) and suicidality. Adolescents involved in bullying had significantly increased Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, depression and anxiety scores in all bullying roles and types. In terms of self-harm and suicidality, bully-victims had the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval [3.26, 6.83]), suicidal ideation (prevalence rate ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval [2.83, 6.49]), suicidal plan (prevalence rate ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval [2.54, 6.58]) and attempts (prevalence rate ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [1.39, 5.13]), followed by victims then bullies. The experience of both relational-verbal and physical bullying was associated with the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.15, 6.60]), suicidal ideation or plans (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.05, 6.95]; and 4.8, 95% confidence interval [3.01, 7.64], respectively) or suicide attempts (prevalence rate ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval [1.90, 6.30]). This study presents the first national, population-based estimates of the associations between bullying by peers and mental health outcomes in Australian adolescents. The markedly increased risk of poor mental health outcomes, self-harm and suicidal ideation and behaviours among adolescents who experienced bullying highlights the importance of addressing bullying in school settings.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Steiner, Markus FC; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-01-01

Objective There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. Design A retrospective, cohort study. Setting Scotland. Participants 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Main outcome measures Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population’s risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Results Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73–86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56–84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136–169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56–82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120–175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39–74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18–53) was better than the reference population. Conclusions Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. PMID:26152675

Diagnostic accuracy of the Amsler grid and the preferential hyperacuity perimetry in the screening of patients with age-related macular degeneration: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Faes, L; Bodmer, N S; Bachmann, L M; Thiel, M A; Schmid, M K

2014-07-01

To clarify the screening potential of the Amsler grid and preferential hyperacuity perimetry (PHP) in detecting or ruling out wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Medline, Scopus and Web of Science (by citation of reference) were searched. Checking of reference lists of review articles and of included articles complemented electronic searches. Papers were selected, assessed, and extracted in duplicate. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Twelve included studies enrolled 903 patients and allowed constructing 27 two-by-two tables. Twelve tables reported on the Amsler grid and its modifications, twelve tables reported on the PHP, one table assessed the MCPT and two tables assessed the M-charts. All but two studies had a case-control design. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the Amsler grid was 0.78 (95% confidence intervals; 0.64-0.87), and the pooled specificity was 0.97 (95% confidence intervals; 0.91-0.99). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 23.1 (95% confidence intervals; 8.4-64.0) and 0.23 (95% confidence intervals; 0.14-0.39), respectively. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the PHP was 0.85 (95% confidence intervals; 0.80-0.89), and specificity was 0.87 (95% confidence intervals; 0.82-0.91). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.7 (95% confidence intervals; 4.6-9.8) and 0.17 (95% confidence intervals; 0.13-0.23). No pooling was possible for MCPT and M-charts. Results from small preliminary studies show promising test performance characteristics both for the Amsler grid and PHP to rule out wet AMD in the screening setting. To what extent these findings can be transferred to a real clinic practice still needs to be established.

Evaluation of a 15-week CHOP protocol for the treatment of canine multicentric lymphoma.

PubMed

Burton, J H; Garrett-Mayer, E; Thamm, D H

2013-12-01

Dose intense CHOP protocols have been shown to improve outcome for people with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, but evaluation of dose intense CHOP protocols for canine lymphoma is currently limited. The hypothesis of this retrospective study was that a 15-week dose intense CHOP protocol would have shorter treatment duration with similar efficacy to other doxorubicin-based multidrug protocols. Thirty-one client owned dogs with multicentric lymphoma were treated with a 15-week CHOP chemotherapy protocol with an overall response rate of 100% and a median progression-free interval (PFI) of 140 days [95% confidence interval (CI) 91-335 days]. Dogs that had two or more treatment delays had significantly prolonged PFI and overall survival in multivariate analysis. Dose intensity did not correlate with patient outcome. Dogs experiencing multiple treatment delays secondary to adverse events may receive their individual maximally tolerated dose while dogs with no adverse events may be underdosed. Future studies should focus on individual patient dose optimization. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

PubMed

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

Fructose content and composition of commercial HFCS-sweetened carbonated beverages.

PubMed

White, J S; Hobbs, L J; Fernandez, S

2015-01-01

The obesigenic and related health effects of caloric sweeteners are subjects of much current research. Consumers can properly adjust their diets to conform to nutritional recommendations only if the sugars composition of foods and beverages is accurately measured and reported, a matter of recent concern. We tested the hypothesis that high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) used in commercial carbonated beverages conforms to commonly assumed fructose percentages and industry technical specifications, and fulfills beverage product label regulations and Food Chemicals Codex-stipulated standards. A high-pressure liquid chromatography method was developed and verified for analysis of sugars in carbonated beverages sweetened with HFCS-55. The method was used to measure percent fructose in three carbonated beverage categories. Method verification was demonstrated by acceptable linearity (R(2)>0.99), accuracy (94-104% recovery) and precision (RSD < 2%). Fructose comprised 55.58% of total sugars (95% confidence interval 55.51-55.65%), based on 160 total measurements by 2 independent laboratories of 80 randomly selected carbonated beverages sweetened with HFCS-55. The difference in fructose measurements between laboratories was significant but small (0.1%), and lacked relevance. Differences in fructose by product category or by product age were not statistically significant. Total sugars content of carbonated beverages showed close agreement within product categories (95% confidence interval = 0.01-0.54%). Using verified analytical methodology for HFCS-sweetened carbonated beverages, this study confirmed the hypothesis that fructose as a percentage of total sugars is in close agreement with published specifications in industry technical data sheets, published literature values and governmental standards and requirements. Furthermore, total sugars content of commercial beverages is consistent with common industry practices for canned and bottled products and met the US Federal requirements for nutritional labeling and nutrient claims. Prior concerns about composition were likely owing to use of improper and unverified methodology.

Net Reclassification Indices for Evaluating Risk-Prediction Instruments: A Critical Review

PubMed Central

Kerr, Kathleen F.; Wang, Zheyu; Janes, Holly; McClelland, Robyn L.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Pepe, Margaret S.

2014-01-01

Net reclassification indices have recently become popular statistics for measuring the prediction increment of new biomarkers. We review the various types of net reclassification indices and their correct interpretations. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of quantifying the prediction increment with these indices. For pre-defined risk categories, we relate net reclassification indices to existing measures of the prediction increment. We also consider statistical methodology for constructing confidence intervals for net reclassification indices and evaluate the merits of hypothesis testing based on such indices. We recommend that investigators using net reclassification indices should report them separately for events (cases) and nonevents (controls). When there are two risk categories, the components of net reclassification indices are the same as the changes in the true-positive and false-positive rates. We advocate use of true- and false-positive rates and suggest it is more useful for investigators to retain the existing, descriptive terms. When there are three or more risk categories, we recommend against net reclassification indices because they do not adequately account for clinically important differences in shifts among risk categories. The category-free net reclassification index is a new descriptive device designed to avoid pre-defined risk categories. However, it suffers from many of the same problems as other measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the category-free index can mislead investigators by overstating the incremental value of a biomarker, even in independent validation data. When investigators want to test a null hypothesis of no prediction increment, the well-established tests for coefficients in the regression model are superior to the net reclassification index. If investigators want to use net reclassification indices, confidence intervals should be calculated using bootstrap methods rather than published variance formulas. The preferred single-number summary of the prediction increment is the improvement in net benefit. PMID:24240655

Estrogen receptor β expression and colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Niv, Yaron

2015-12-01

Estrogen receptor β (ERβ) is a potential tumor-suppressor gene in colorectal cancer (CRC). This hypothesis is supported by clinical and laboratory observations. In this meta-analysis, we looked at studies that investigated the relationship between ERβ protein expression and CRC, comparing the lesion with normal adjacent mucosa. English medical literature searches were performed for ERβ expression in patients with CRC, tumor tissue versus normal mucosa. Searches were performed up to 31 May 2015, using MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and CENTRAL. Meta-analysis was carried out using Comprehensive Meta-analysis Software. Pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated and ERβ expression was compared in individual studies using the fixed-effects model. The odds ratio of ERβ expression was 0.216 (95% confidence interval 0.152-0.307, P<0.0001), lower in cancer tissue than normal mucosa. Funnel plot did not indicate a significant publication bias. There was no significant heterogeneity in the studies included: Q=5.897, d.f.(Q)=9, I=0.000, P=0.750. In this meta-analysis, we confirm the observation of decreased ERβ expression in CRC. Our results support the hypothesis of ERβ being a tumor-suppressor gene in the large bowel, and the ERβ protein protects against carcinogenesis and development of CRC when activated by estrogen. Further studies are needed to examine the potential of selective/specific ligands to activate ERβ without the side effects found with estrogen and without activating ERα. In this meta-analysis, we looked at studies that investigated the relationship between CRC and ERβ expression in the tumor and normal mucosa of CRC patients. English medical literature searches were performed for studies comparing ERβ expression in the cancer and normal colonic mucosa in patients with CRC. Meta-analysis was carried out, pooled odds ratios were calculated, and ERβ expression was compared in individual studies.

Fructose content and composition of commercial HFCS-sweetened carbonated beverages

PubMed Central

White, J S; Hobbs, L J; Fernandez, S

2015-01-01

Objective: The obesigenic and related health effects of caloric sweeteners are subjects of much current research. Consumers can properly adjust their diets to conform to nutritional recommendations only if the sugars composition of foods and beverages is accurately measured and reported, a matter of recent concern. We tested the hypothesis that high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) used in commercial carbonated beverages conforms to commonly assumed fructose percentages and industry technical specifications, and fulfills beverage product label regulations and Food Chemicals Codex-stipulated standards. Design: A high-pressure liquid chromatography method was developed and verified for analysis of sugars in carbonated beverages sweetened with HFCS-55. The method was used to measure percent fructose in three carbonated beverage categories. Method verification was demonstrated by acceptable linearity (R2>0.99), accuracy (94–104% recovery) and precision (RSD<2%). Result: Fructose comprised 55.58% of total sugars (95% confidence interval 55.51–55.65%), based on 160 total measurements by 2 independent laboratories of 80 randomly selected carbonated beverages sweetened with HFCS-55. The difference in fructose measurements between laboratories was significant but small (0.1%), and lacked relevance. Differences in fructose by product category or by product age were not statistically significant. Total sugars content of carbonated beverages showed close agreement within product categories (95% confidence interval=0.01–0.54%). Conclusions: Using verified analytical methodology for HFCS-sweetened carbonated beverages, this study confirmed the hypothesis that fructose as a percentage of total sugars is in close agreement with published specifications in industry technical data sheets, published literature values and governmental standards and requirements. Furthermore, total sugars content of commercial beverages is consistent with common industry practices for canned and bottled products and met the US Federal requirements for nutritional labeling and nutrient claims. Prior concerns about composition were likely owing to use of improper and unverified methodology. PMID:24798032

Choline and betaine intake and the risk of colorectal cancer in men.

PubMed

Lee, Jung Eun; Giovannucci, Edward; Fuchs, Charles S; Willett, Walter C; Zeisel, Steven H; Cho, Eunyoung

2010-03-01

Dietary choline and betaine have been hypothesized to decrease the risk of cancer because of their role as methyl donors in the one-carbon metabolism. However, it remains unknown whether dietary intake of choline and betaine is associated with colorectal cancer risk. We prospectively examined the associations between dietary choline and betaine intake and risk of colorectal cancer in men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. We followed 47,302 men and identified a total of 987 incident colorectal cancer cases from 1986 to 2004. We assessed dietary and supplemental choline and betaine intake every 4 years using a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate multivariate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals. All statistical tests were two-sided. We did not find any statistically significant associations between choline intake or betaine intake and risk of colorectal cancer. Comparing the top quintile with bottom quintile, multivariate relative risks (95% confidence interval) were 0.97 (0.79-1.20; P(trend) = 0.87) for choline intake and 0.94 (0.77-1.16; P(trend) = 0.79) for betaine intake. Similarly, we observed no associations between colorectal cancer risk and choline from free choline, glycerophosphocholine, phosphocholine, phosphatidylcholine, or sphingomyelin. Our data do not support the hypothesis that choline and betaine intake is inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk.

Dental hygiene students' perceptions of older adults.

PubMed

Wiener, R Constance; Shockey, Alcinda Trickett; Long, D Leann

2014-12-01

Geriatric education is an important component of the dental hygiene curriculum because, in it, students acquire skills and attitudes to help provide quality care to older adults. The purpose of this study was to determine if off-site exposure to nursing home residents with supervised oversight had the potential to improve dental hygiene students' attitudes toward older adults. Senior dental hygiene students at one school completed a pre-nursing home experience questionnaire. A series of geriatric lectures and discussions, which included discussions about students' anxieties of working with institutionalized older adults, were held prior to the nursing home experience. The students then participated in two supervised four-hour nursing home experiences, were debriefed after the experiences, and completed a second questionnaire. Of thirty-nine potential participants in the study, thirty-two took part in the pre-nursing home experience questionnaire (82.1 percent). They had a mean split Fabroni score of 34.2 (95 percent confidence interval: 32.2, 36.3). The thirty participants in the post-experience questionnaire (76.9 percent of total) had a mean split score of 32.7 (95 percent confidence interval: 30.1, 35.3). This study failed to reject the null hypothesis of no mean difference between the pre- and post-nursing home experience; however, the post-experience mean score was lower than the pre-nursing home experience mean score, indicating a more positive attitude toward older adults after the experience.

Simplified Estimation and Testing in Unbalanced Repeated Measures Designs.

PubMed

Spiess, Martin; Jordan, Pascal; Wendt, Mike

2018-05-07

In this paper we propose a simple estimator for unbalanced repeated measures design models where each unit is observed at least once in each cell of the experimental design. The estimator does not require a model of the error covariance structure. Thus, circularity of the error covariance matrix and estimation of correlation parameters and variances are not necessary. Together with a weak assumption about the reason for the varying number of observations, the proposed estimator and its variance estimator are unbiased. As an alternative to confidence intervals based on the normality assumption, a bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap technique is considered. We also propose the naive percentile bootstrap for Wald-type tests where the standard Wald test may break down when the number of observations is small relative to the number of parameters to be estimated. In a simulation study we illustrate the properties of the estimator and the bootstrap techniques to calculate confidence intervals and conduct hypothesis tests in small and large samples under normality and non-normality of the errors. The results imply that the simple estimator is only slightly less efficient than an estimator that correctly assumes a block structure of the error correlation matrix, a special case of which is an equi-correlation matrix. Application of the estimator and the bootstrap technique is illustrated using data from a task switch experiment based on an experimental within design with 32 cells and 33 participants.

Pancreatic cancer and exposure to dietary nitrate and nitrite in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

PubMed

Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Cross, Amanda J; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael Z; Schatzkin, Arthur; Hollenbeck, Albert R; Sinha, Rashmi; Ward, Mary H

2011-08-01

Nitrate and nitrite are precursors of N-nitroso compounds, which induce tumors of the pancreas in animals. The authors evaluated the relation of dietary nitrate and nitrite to pancreatic cancer risk in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. Nitrate and nitrite intakes were assessed at baseline using a 124-item food frequency questionnaire. During approximately 10 years of follow-up between 1995 and 2006, 1,728 incident pancreatic cancer cases were identified. There was no association between total nitrate or nitrite intake and pancreatic cancer in men or women. However, men in the highest quintile of summed nitrate/nitrite intake from processed meat had a nonsignificantly elevated risk of pancreatic cancer (hazard ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.95, 1.47; P-trend = 0.11). The authors observed a stronger increase in risk among men for nitrate/nitrite intake from processed meat at ages 12-13 years (highest quintile vs. lowest: hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% confidence interval: 0.99, 1.76; P-trend = 0.11), though the relation did not achieve statistical significance. The authors found no associations between adult or adolescent nitrate or nitrite intake from processed meats and pancreatic cancer among women. These results provide modest evidence that processed meat sources of dietary nitrate and nitrite may be associated with pancreatic cancer among men and provide no support for the hypothesis in women.

Birth Weight, Physical Morbidity, and Mortality: A Population-based Sibling-Comparison Study

PubMed Central

Class, Quetzal A.; Rickert, Martin E.; Lichtenstein, Paul; D'Onofrio, Brian M.

2014-01-01

Associations between low birth weight (≤2,500 g) and increased risk of mortality and morbidity provided the foundation for the “developmental origins of health and disease” hypothesis. Previous between-family studies could not control for unmeasured confounders. Therefore, we compared differentially exposed siblings to estimate the extent to which the associations were due to uncontrolled factors. Our population cohort included 3,291,773 persons born in Sweden from 1973 to 2008. Analyses controlled for gestational age, among other covariates, and considered birth weight as both an ordinal and a continuous variable. Outcomes included mortality after 1 year, cardiac-related death, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, pulmonary circulation problems, stroke, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. We fitted fixed-effects models to compare siblings and conducted sensitivity analyses to test alternative explanations. Across the population, the lower the birth weight, the greater the risk of mortality (e.g., cardiac-related death (low birth weight hazard ratio = 2.69, 95% confidence interval: 2.05, 3.53)) and morbidity (e.g., type 2 diabetes mellitus (low birth weight hazard ratio = 1.79, 95% confidence interval: 1.50, 2.14)) outcomes in comparison with normal birth weight. All associations were independent of shared familial confounders and measured covariates. Results emphasize the importance of birth weight as a risk factor for subsequent mortality and morbidity. PMID:24355331

Biomechanical Cadaveric Evaluation of Partial Acute Peroneal Tendon Tears.

PubMed

Wagner, Emilio; Wagner, Pablo; Ortiz, Cristian; Radkievich, Ruben; Palma, Felipe; Guzmán-Venegas, Rodrigo

2018-06-01

No clear guideline or solid evidence exists for peroneal tendon tears to determine when to repair, resect, or perform a tenodesis on the damaged tendon. The objective of this study was to analyze the mechanical behavior of cadaveric peroneal tendons artificially damaged and tested in a cyclic and failure mode. The hypothesis was that no failure would be observed in the cyclic phase. Eight cadaveric long leg specimens were tested on a specially designed frame. A longitudinal full thickness tendon defect was created, 3 cm in length, behind the tip of the fibula, compromising 66% of the visible width of the peroneal tendons. Cyclic testing was initially performed between 50 and 200 N, followed by a load-to-failure test. Tendon elongation and load to rupture were measured. No tendon failed or lengthened during cyclic testing. The mean load to failure for peroneus brevis was 416 N (95% confidence interval, 351-481 N) and for the peroneus longus was 723 N (95% confidence interval, 578-868 N). All failures were at the level of the defect created. In a cadaveric model of peroneal tendon tears, 33% of remaining peroneal tendon could resist high tensile forces, above the physiologic threshold. Some peroneal tendon tears can be treated conservatively without risking spontaneous ruptures. When surgically treating a symptomatic peroneal tendon tear, increased efforts may be undertaken to repair tears previously considered irreparable.

Dental Hygiene Students’ Perceptions of Older Adults

PubMed Central

Wiener, R. Constance; Shockey, Alcinda Trickett; Long, D. Leann

2015-01-01

Geriatric education is an important component of the dental hygiene curriculum because, in it, students acquire skills and attitudes to help provide quality care to older adults. The purpose of this study was to determine if off-site exposure to nursing home residents with supervised oversight had the potential to improve dental hygiene students’ attitudes toward older adults. Senior dental hygiene students at one school completed a pre-nursing home experience questionnaire. A series of geriatric lectures and discussions, which included discussions about students’ anxieties of working with institutionalized older adults, were held prior to the nursing home experience. The students then participated in two supervised four-hour nursing home experiences, were debriefed after the experiences, and completed a second questionnaire. Of thirty-nine potential participants in the study, thirty-two took part in the pre-nursing home experience questionnaire (82.1 percent). They had a mean split Fabroni score of 34.2 (95 percent confidence interval: 32.2, 36.3). The thirty participants in the post-experience questionnaire (76.9 percent of total) had a mean split score of 32.7 (95 percent confidence interval: 30.1, 35.3). This study failed to reject the null hypothesis of no mean difference between the pre- and post-nursing home experience; however, the post-experience mean score was lower than the pre-nursing home experience mean score, indicating a more positive attitude toward older adults after the experience. PMID:25480277

Inconsistent survey reporting in anesthesia journals.

PubMed

Story, David A; Gin, Veronica; na Ranong, Vanida; Poustie, Stephanie; Jones, Daryl

2011-09-01

As with other types of research, there are concerns about reporting of survey research in anesthesia journals. We hypothesized that use of survey reporting items would be inconsistent in survey research reported in anesthesia journals. After a literature review we constructed a 17-item reporting list for a limited systematic review of survey reporting in 6 anesthesia journals. We identified survey reports by MEDLINE (PubMed) search for January 2000 to April 2009. The initial search identified 347 publications. Of these, we excluded 107 because they were not questionnaire surveys (often audits), were reviews, or were letters. We therefore identified 240 surveys published as full survey reports. From the 17-item reporting list, the median number of items recorded was 9 (interquartile range: 7 to 10; range 2 to 15). The number (and percentage) of surveys reporting specific items ranged widely for different items: from 9 surveys (4%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2% to 7%) for sample size to 240 surveys (100%; 95% CI: 98% to 100%) for response rate. In addition to sample size, the 5 least frequently reported items included the following: reporting confidence intervals, 21 surveys (9%; 95% CI: 6% to 13%); stating a hypothesis, 23 of 240 surveys (10%; 95% CI: 7% to 14%); accounting for nonresponders, 61 surveys (25%; 95% CI: 20% to 31%); and survey design, 67 surveys (28%; 95% CI: 33% to 34%). Inconsistent reporting may compromise the transparency and reproducibility of survey reports.

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium and the risk of stroke among men.

PubMed

Adebamowo, Sally N; Spiegelman, Donna; Flint, Alan J; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium have been inversely associated with the incidence of hypertension, a known risk factor for stroke. However, only a few studies have examined intakes of these cations in relation to risk of stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate whether high intake of magnesium, potassium, and calcium is associated with reduced stroke risk among men. We prospectively examined the associations between intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium from diet and supplements, and the risk of incident stroke among 42 669 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, aged 40 to 75 years and free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in 1986. We calculated the hazard ratio of total, ischemic, and haemorrhagic strokes by quintiles of each cation intake, and of a combined dietary score of all three cations, using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. During 24 years of follow-up, 1547 total stroke events were documented. In multivariate analyses, the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile were 0·87 (95% confidence interval, 0·74-1·02; P, trend = 0·04) for dietary magnesium, 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·76-1·05; P, trend = 0·10) for dietary potassium, and 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-1·04; P, trend = 0·25) for dietary calcium intake. The relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·74 (95% confidence interval, 0·59-0·93; P, trend = 0·003) for supplemental magnesium, 0·66 (95% confidence interval, 0·50-0·86; P, trend = 0·002) for supplemental potassium, and 1·01 (95% confidence interval, 0·84-1·20; P, trend = 0·83) for supplemental calcium intake. For total intake (dietary and supplemental), the relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·83 (95% confidence interval, 0·70-0·99; P, trend = 0·04) for magnesium, 0·88 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-4; P, trend = 6) for potassium, and 3 (95% confidence interval, 79-09; P, trend = 84) for calcium. Men in the highest quintile for a combined dietary score of all three cations had a multivariate relative risk of 0·79 (95% confidence interval, 0·67-0·92; P, trend = 0·008) for total stroke, compared with those in the lowest. A diet rich in magnesium, potassium, and calcium may contribute to reduced risk of stroke among men. Because of significant collinearity, the independent contribution of each cation is difficult to define. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Neuraxial analgesia to increase the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Mele, Michele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

External cephalic version is a medical procedure in which the fetus is externally manipulated to assume the cephalic presentation. The use of neuraxial analgesia for facilitating the version has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials, but its potential effects are still controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of neuraxial analgesia as an intervention to increase the success rate of external cephalic version. Searches were performed in electronic databases with the use of a combination of text words related to external cephalic version and neuraxial analgesia from the inception of each database to January 2016. We included all randomized clinical trials of women, with a gestational age ≥36 weeks and breech or transverse fetal presentation, undergoing external cephalic version who were randomized to neuraxial analgesia, including spinal, epidural, or combined spinal-epidural techniques (ie, intervention group) or to a control group (either intravenous analgesia or no treatment). The primary outcome was the successful external cephalic version. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean differences with a 95% confidence interval. Nine randomized clinical trials (934 women) were included in this review. Women who received neuraxial analgesia had a significantly higher incidence of successful external cephalic version (58.4% vs 43.1%; relative risk, 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.64), cephalic presentation in labor (55.1% vs 40.2%; relative risk, 1.37, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.73), and vaginal delivery (54.0% vs 44.6%; relative risk, 1.21, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.41) compared with those who did not. Women who were randomized to the intervention group also had a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (46.0% vs 55.3%; relative risk, 0.83, 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), maternal discomfort (1.2% vs 9.3%; relative risk, 0.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.99), and lower pain, assessed by the visual analog scale pain score (mean difference, -4.52 points, 95% confidence interval, -5.35 to 3.69) compared with the control group. The incidences of emergency cesarean delivery (1.6% vs 2.5%; relative risk, 0.63, 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.70), transient bradycardia (11.8% vs 8.3%; relative risk, 1.42, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-2.80), nonreassuring fetal testing, excluding transient bradycardia, after external cephalic version (6.9% vs 7.4%; relative risk, 0.93, 95% confidence interval, 0.53-1.64), and abruption placentae (0.4% vs 0.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.06-16.1) were similar. Administration of neuraxial analgesia significantly increases the success rate of external cephalic version among women with malpresentation at term or late preterm, which then significantly increases the incidence of vaginal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Add-On Antihypertensive Medications to Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Blockers in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study.

PubMed

Schroeder, Emily B; Chonchol, Michel; Shetterly, Susan M; Powers, J David; Adams, John L; Schmittdiel, Julie A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J; Steiner, John F

2018-05-07

In individuals with diabetes, the comparative effectiveness of add-on antihypertensive medications added to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker on the risk of significant kidney events is unknown. We used an observational, multicenter cohort of 21,897 individuals with diabetes to compare individuals who added β -blockers, dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, loop diuretics, or thiazide diuretics to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. We examined the hazard of significant kidney events, cardiovascular events, and death using Cox proportional hazard models with propensity score weighting. The composite significant kidney event end point was defined as the first occurrence of a ≥30% decline in eGFR to an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , initiation of dialysis, or kidney transplant. The composite cardiovascular event end point was defined as the first occurrence of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or congestive heart failure; coronary artery bypass grafting; or percutaneous coronary intervention, and it was only examined in those free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Over a maximum of 5 years, there were 4707 significant kidney events, 1498 deaths, and 818 cardiovascular events. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios for significant kidney events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.89), 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.78), and 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.41), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of mortality for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.44), 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.03), and 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 2.13), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of cardiovascular events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics compared with thiazide diuretics were 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 1.96), 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.80 to 1.39), and 1.55 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 2.27), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, calcium channel blockers were associated with a lower risk of significant kidney events and a similar risk of cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Maternal steroid therapy for fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ciardulli, Andrea; D'Antonio, Francesco; Magro-Malosso, Elena R; Manzoli, Lamberto; Anisman, Paul; Saccone, Gabriele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2018-03-07

To explore the effect of maternal fluorinated steroid therapy on fetuses affected by second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. Studies reporting the outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block diagnosed on prenatal ultrasound and treated with fluorinated steroids compared with those not treated were included. The primary outcome was the overall progression of congenital atrioventricular block to either continuous or intermittent third-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth. Meta-analyses of proportions using random effect model and meta-analyses using individual data random-effect logistic regression were used. Five studies (71 fetuses) were included. The progression rate to congenital atrioventricular block at birth in fetuses treated with steroids was 52% (95% confidence interval 23-79) and in fetuses not receiving steroid therapy 73% (95% confidence interval 39-94). The overall rate of regression to either first-degree, intermittent first-/second-degree or sinus rhythm in fetuses treated with steroids was 25% (95% confidence interval 12-41) compared with 23% (95% confidence interval 8-44) in those not treated. Stable (constant) second-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth was present in 11% (95% confidence interval 2-27) of cases in the treated group and in none of the newborns in the untreated group, whereas complete regression to sinus rhythm occurred in 21% (95% confidence interval 6-42) of fetuses receiving steroids vs. 9% (95% confidence interval 0-41) of those untreated. There is still limited evidence as to the benefit of administered fluorinated steroids in terms of affecting outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Active management of the third stage of labor with and without controlled cord traction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Du, Yongming; Ye, Man; Zheng, Feiyun

2014-07-01

To determine the specific effect of controlled cord traction in the third stage of labor in the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage. We searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science (inception to 30 October 2013). Randomized controlled trials comparing controlled cord traction with hands-off management in the third stage of labor were included. Five randomized controlled trials involving a total of 30 532 participants were eligible. No significant difference was found between controlled cord traction and hands-off management groups with respect to the incidence of severe postpartum hemorrhage (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.77-1.08), need for blood transfusion (relative risk 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.69-1.33) or therapeutic uterotonics (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.01). However, controlled cord traction reduced the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in general (relative risk 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99; number-needed-to-treat 111, 95% confidence interval 61-666), as well manual removal of the placenta (relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.84) and duration of the third stage of labor (mean difference -3.20, 95% confidence interval -3.21 to -3.19). Controlled cord traction appears to reduce the risk of any postpartum hemorrhage in a general sense, as well as manual removal of the placenta and the duration of the third stage of labor. However, the reduction in the occurrence of severe postpartum hemorrhage, need for additional uterotonics and blood transfusion is not statistically significant. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors is associated with cancer-related death after resection.

PubMed

Roland, Christina L; Starker, Lee F; Kang, Y; Chatterjee, Deyali; Estrella, Jeannelyn; Rashid, Asif; Katz, Matthew H; Aloia, Thomas A; Lee, Jeffrey E; Dasari, Arvind; Yao, James C; Fleming, Jason B

2017-03-01

Gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors have frequent loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression, a known tumor suppressor. The impact of SMAD4 loss on gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors aggressiveness or cancer-related patient outcomes is not defined. We examined the expression of SMAD4 in resected gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors and its impact on oncologic outcomes. Patients who underwent complete curative operative resection of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were identified retrospectively (n = 38). Immunohistochemical staining for SMAD4 expression was scored by a blinded pathologist and correlated with clinicopathologic features and oncologic outcomes. Twenty-nine percent of the gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were SMAD4-negative and 71% SMAD4-positive. Median overall survival was 155 months (95% confidence interval, 102-208 months). Loss of SMAD4 was associated with both decreased median disease-free survival (28 months; 95% confidence interval, 16-40) months compared with 223 months (95% confidence interval, 3-443 months) for SMAD4-positive patients (P = .03) and decreased median disease-specific survival (SMAD4: 137 [95% confidence interval, 81-194] months versus SMAD4-positive: 204 [95% confidence interval, 143-264] months; P = .04). This translated into a decrease in median overall survival (SMAD4-negative: 125 (95% confidence interval, 51-214) months versus SMAD4-positive: 185 (95% confidence interval, 138-232) months; P = .02). Consistent with the known biology of the DPC4/SMAD4 gene, an absence of its protein expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors was negatively associated with outcomes after curative operative resection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculation of the confidence intervals for transformation parameters in the registration of medical images

PubMed Central

Bansal, Ravi; Staib, Lawrence H.; Laine, Andrew F.; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Jun; Posecion, Lainie F.; Peterson, Bradley S.

2010-01-01

Images from different individuals typically cannot be registered precisely because anatomical features within the images differ across the people imaged and because the current methods for image registration have inherent technological limitations that interfere with perfect registration. Quantifying the inevitable error in image registration is therefore of crucial importance in assessing the effects that image misregistration may have on subsequent analyses in an imaging study. We have developed a mathematical framework for quantifying errors in registration by computing the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters (3 translations, 3 rotations, and 1 global scale) for the similarity transformation. The presence of noise in images and the variability in anatomy across individuals ensures that estimated registration parameters are always random variables. We assume a functional relation among intensities across voxels in the images, and we use the theory of nonlinear, least-squares estimation to show that the parameters are multivariate Gaussian distributed. We then use the covariance matrix of this distribution to compute the confidence intervals of the transformation parameters. These confidence intervals provide a quantitative assessment of the registration error across the images. Because transformation parameters are nonlinearly related to the coordinates of landmark points in the brain, we subsequently show that the coordinates of those landmark points are also multivariate Gaussian distributed. Using these distributions, we then compute the confidence intervals of the coordinates for landmark points in the image. Each of these confidence intervals in turn provides a quantitative assessment of the registration error at a particular landmark point. Because our method is computationally intensive, however, its current implementation is limited to assessing the error of the parameters in the similarity transformation across images. We assessed the performance of our method in computing the error in estimated similarity parameters by applying that method to real world dataset. Our results showed that the size of the confidence intervals computed using our method decreased – i.e. our confidence in the registration of images from different individuals increased – for increasing amounts of blur in the images. Moreover, the size of the confidence intervals increased for increasing amounts of noise, misregistration, and differing anatomy. Thus, our method precisely quantified confidence in the registration of images that contain varying amounts of misregistration and varying anatomy across individuals. PMID:19138877

Reliability of the identification of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children.

PubMed

Juskewitch, Justin E; Prasad, Swati; Salas, Carlos F Santillan; Huskins, W Charles

2012-01-01

To assess interobserver reliability of the identification of episodes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill hospitalized infants and children. Retrospective, cross-sectional study of the application of the 2005 consensus definition of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in infants and children by two independent, trained reviewers using information in the electronic medical record. Eighteen-bed pediatric multidisciplinary medical/surgical pediatric intensive care unit. A randomly selected sample of children admitted consecutively to the pediatric intensive care unit between May 1 and September 30, 2009. None. Sixty infants and children were selected from a total of 343 admitted patients. Their median age was 3.9 yrs (interquartile range, 1.5-12.7), 57% were female, and 68% were Caucasian. Nineteen (32%) children were identified by both reviewers as having an episode of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (88% agreement, 95% confidence interval 78-94; κ = 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.92). Among these 19 children, agreement between the reviewers for individual systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was: temperature (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); white blood cell count (89%, 95% confidence interval 67-99); respiratory rate (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); and heart rate (68%, 95% confidence interval 33-87). Episodes of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children can be identified reproducibly using the consensus definition.

What was different about exposures reported by male Australian Gulf War veterans for the 1991 Persian Gulf War, compared with exposures reported for other deployments?

PubMed

Glass, Deborah C; Sim, Malcolm R; Kelsall, Helen L; Ikin, Jill F; McKenzie, Dean; Forbes, Andrew; Ittak, Peter

2006-07-01

This study identified chemical and environmental exposures specifically associated with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Exposures were self-reported in a postal questionnaire, in the period of 2000-2002, by 1,424 Australian male Persian Gulf War veterans in relation to their 1991 Persian Gulf War deployment and by 625 Persian Gulf War veterans and 514 members of a military comparison group in relation to other active deployments. Six of 28 investigated exposures were experienced more frequently during the Persian Gulf War than during other deployments; these were exposure to smoke (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-6.6), exposure to dust (OR, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-5.3), exposure to chemical warfare agents (OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-7.9), use of respiratory protective equipment (OR, 13.6; 95% confidence interval, 7.6-26.8), use of nuclear, chemical, and biological protective suits (OR, 8.9; 95% confidence interval, 5.4-15.4), and entering/inspecting enemy equipment (OR, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-4.8). Other chemical and environmental exposures were not specific to the Persian Gulf War deployment but were also reported in relation to other deployments. The number of exposures reported was related to service type and number of deployments but not to age or rank.

Statin therapy in lower limb peripheral arterial disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Antoniou, George A; Fisher, Robert K; Georgiadis, George S; Antoniou, Stavros A; Torella, Francesco

2014-11-01

To investigate and analyse the existing evidence supporting statin therapy in patients with lower limb atherosclerotic arterial disease. A systematic search of electronic information sources was undertaken to identify studies comparing cardiovascular outcomes in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease treated with a statin and those not receiving a statin. Estimates were combined applying fixed- or random-effects models. Twelve observational cohort studies and two randomised trials reporting 19,368 patients were selected. Statin therapy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.78) and incidence of stroke (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89). A trend towards improved cardiovascular mortality (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.35-1.11), myocardial infarction (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.38-1.01), and the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.03), was identified. Meta-analyses of studies performing adjustments showed decreased all-cause mortality in statin users (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.86). Evidence supporting statins' protective role in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease is insufficient. Statin therapy seems to be effective in reducing all-cause mortality and the incidence cerebrovascular events in patients diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the appropriateness of applying chi-square distribution based confidence intervals to spectral estimates of helicopter flyover data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutledge, Charles K.

1988-01-01

The validity of applying chi-square based confidence intervals to far-field acoustic flyover spectral estimates was investigated. Simulated data, using a Kendall series and experimental acoustic data from the NASA/McDonnell Douglas 500E acoustics test, were analyzed. Statistical significance tests to determine the equality of distributions of the simulated and experimental data relative to theoretical chi-square distributions were performed. Bias and uncertainty errors associated with the spectral estimates were easily identified from the data sets. A model relating the uncertainty and bias errors to the estimates resulted, which aided in determining the appropriateness of the chi-square distribution based confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals were appropriate for nontonally associated frequencies of the experimental data but were inappropriate for tonally associated estimate distributions. The appropriateness at the tonally associated frequencies was indicated by the presence of bias error and noncomformity of the distributions to the theoretical chi-square distribution. A technique for determining appropriate confidence intervals at the tonally associated frequencies was suggested.

Seizure burden is independently associated with short term outcome in critically ill children

PubMed Central

Payne, Eric T.; Zhao, Xiu Yan; Frndova, Helena; McBain, Kristin; Sharma, Rohit; Hutchison, James S.

2014-01-01

Seizures are common among critically ill children, but their relationship to outcome remains unclear. We sought to quantify the relationship between electrographic seizure burden and short-term neurological outcome, while controlling for diagnosis and illness severity. Furthermore, we sought to determine whether there is a seizure burden threshold above which there is an increased probability of neurological decline. We prospectively evaluated all infants and children admitted to our paediatric and cardiac intensive care units who underwent clinically ordered continuous video-electroencephalography monitoring over a 3-year period. Seizure burden was quantified by calculating the maximum percentage of any hour that was occupied by electrographic seizures. Outcome measures included neurological decline, defined as a worsening Paediatric Cerebral Performance Category score between hospital admission and discharge, and in-hospital mortality. Two hundred and fifty-nine subjects were evaluated (51% male) with a median age of 2.2 years (interquartile range: 0.3 days–9.7 years). The median duration of continuous video-electroencephalography monitoring was 37 h (interquartile range: 21–56 h). Seizures occurred in 93 subjects (36%, 95% confidence interval = 30–42%), with 23 (9%, 95% confidence interval = 5–12%) experiencing status epilepticus. Neurological decline was observed in 174 subjects (67%), who had a mean maximum seizure burden of 15.7% per hour, compared to 1.8% per hour for those without neurological decline (P < 0.0001). Above a maximum seizure burden threshold of 20% per hour (12 min), both the probability and magnitude of neurological decline rose sharply (P < 0.0001) across all diagnostic categories. On multivariable analysis adjusting for diagnosis and illness severity, the odds of neurological decline increased by 1.13 (95% confidence interval = 1.05–1.21, P = 0.0016) for every 1% increase in maximum hourly seizure burden. Seizure burden was not associated with mortality (odds ratio: 1.003, 95% confidence interval: 0.99–1.02, P = 0.613). We conclude that in this cohort of critically ill children, increasing seizure burden was independently associated with a greater probability and magnitude of neurological decline. Our observation that a seizure burden of more than 12 min in a given hour was strongly associated with neurological decline suggests that early antiepileptic drug management is warranted in this population, and identifies this seizure burden threshold as a potential therapeutic target. These findings support the hypothesis that electrographic seizures independently contribute to brain injury and worsen outcome. Our results motivate and inform the design of future studies to determine whether more aggressive seizure treatment can improve outcome. PMID:24595203

A comparison of statistical methods for evaluating matching performance of a biometric identification device: a preliminary report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuckers, Michael E.; Hawley, Anne; Livingstone, Katie; Mramba, Nona

2004-08-01

Confidence intervals are an important way to assess and estimate a parameter. In the case of biometric identification devices, several approaches to confidence intervals for an error rate have been proposed. Here we evaluate six of these methods. To complete this evaluation, we simulate data from a wide variety of parameter values. This data are simulated via a correlated binary distribution. We then determine how well these methods do at what they say they do: capturing the parameter inside the confidence interval. In addition, the average widths of the various confidence intervals are recorded for each set of parameters. The complete results of this simulation are presented graphically for easy comparison. We conclude by making a recommendation regarding which method performs best.

Measurement of neutrino and antineutrino oscillations by the T2K experiment including a new additional sample of νe interactions at the far detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, K.; Amey, J.; Andreopoulos, C.; Antonova, M.; Aoki, S.; Ariga, A.; Ashida, Y.; Ban, S.; Barbi, M.; Barker, G. J.; Barr, G.; Barry, C.; Batkiewicz, M.; Berardi, V.; Berkman, S.; Bhadra, S.; Bienstock, S.; Blondel, A.; Bolognesi, S.; Bordoni, S.; Boyd, S. B.; Brailsford, D.; Bravar, A.; Bronner, C.; Buizza Avanzini, M.; Calland, R. G.; Campbell, T.; Cao, S.; Cartwright, S. L.; Catanesi, M. G.; Cervera, A.; Chappell, A.; Checchia, C.; Cherdack, D.; Chikuma, N.; Christodoulou, G.; Coleman, J.; Collazuol, G.; Coplowe, D.; Cudd, A.; Dabrowska, A.; De Rosa, G.; Dealtry, T.; Denner, P. F.; Dennis, S. R.; Densham, C.; Di Lodovico, F.; Dolan, S.; Drapier, O.; Duffy, K. E.; Dumarchez, J.; Dunne, P.; Emery-Schrenk, S.; Ereditato, A.; Feusels, T.; Finch, A. J.; Fiorentini, G. A.; Fiorillo, G.; Friend, M.; Fujii, Y.; Fukuda, D.; Fukuda, Y.; Garcia, A.; Giganti, C.; Gizzarelli, F.; Golan, T.; Gonin, M.; Hadley, D. R.; Haegel, L.; Haigh, J. T.; Hansen, D.; Harada, J.; Hartz, M.; Hasegawa, T.; Hastings, N. C.; Hayashino, T.; Hayato, Y.; Hillairet, A.; Hiraki, T.; Hiramoto, A.; Hirota, S.; Hogan, M.; Holeczek, J.; Hosomi, F.; Huang, K.; Ichikawa, A. K.; Ikeda, M.; Imber, J.; Insler, J.; Intonti, R. A.; Ishida, T.; Ishii, T.; Iwai, E.; Iwamoto, K.; Izmaylov, A.; Jamieson, B.; Jiang, M.; Johnson, S.; Jonsson, P.; Jung, C. K.; Kabirnezhad, M.; Kaboth, A. C.; Kajita, T.; Kakuno, H.; Kameda, J.; Karlen, D.; Katori, T.; Kearns, E.; Khabibullin, M.; Khotjantsev, A.; Kim, H.; Kim, J.; King, S.; Kisiel, J.; Knight, A.; Knox, A.; Kobayashi, T.; Koch, L.; Koga, T.; Koller, P. P.; Konaka, A.; Kormos, L. L.; Koshio, Y.; Kowalik, K.; Kudenko, Y.; Kurjata, R.; Kutter, T.; Lagoda, J.; Lamont, I.; Lamoureux, M.; Lasorak, P.; Laveder, M.; Lawe, M.; Licciardi, M.; Lindner, T.; Liptak, Z. J.; Litchfield, R. P.; Li, X.; Longhin, A.; Lopez, J. P.; Lou, T.; Ludovici, L.; Lu, X.; Magaletti, L.; Mahn, K.; Malek, M.; Manly, S.; Maret, L.; Marino, A. D.; Martin, J. F.; Martins, P.; Martynenko, S.; Maruyama, T.; Matveev, V.; Mavrokoridis, K.; Ma, W. Y.; Mazzucato, E.; McCarthy, M.; McCauley, N.; McFarland, K. S.; McGrew, C.; Mefodiev, A.; Metelko, C.; Mezzetto, M.; Minamino, A.; Mineev, O.; Mine, S.; Missert, A.; Miura, M.; Moriyama, S.; Morrison, J.; Mueller, Th. A.; Nakadaira, T.; Nakahata, M.; Nakamura, K. G.; Nakamura, K.; Nakamura, K. D.; Nakanishi, Y.; Nakayama, S.; Nakaya, T.; Nakayoshi, K.; Nantais, C.; Nielsen, C.; Nishikawa, K.; Nishimura, Y.; Novella, P.; Nowak, J.; O'Keeffe, H. M.; Okumura, K.; Okusawa, T.; Oryszczak, W.; Oser, S. M.; Ovsyannikova, T.; Owen, R. A.; Oyama, Y.; Palladino, V.; Palomino, J. L.; Paolone, V.; Patel, N. D.; Paudyal, P.; Pavin, M.; Payne, D.; Petrov, Y.; Pickering, L.; Pinzon Guerra, E. S.; Pistillo, C.; Popov, B.; Posiadala-Zezula, M.; Poutissou, J.-M.; Pritchard, A.; Przewlocki, P.; Quilain, B.; Radermacher, T.; Radicioni, E.; Ratoff, P. N.; Rayner, M. A.; Reinherz-Aronis, E.; Riccio, C.; Rodrigues, P. A.; Rondio, E.; Rossi, B.; Roth, S.; Ruggeri, A. C.; Rychter, A.; Sakashita, K.; Sánchez, F.; Scantamburlo, E.; Scholberg, K.; Schwehr, J.; Scott, M.; Seiya, Y.; Sekiguchi, T.; Sekiya, H.; Sgalaberna, D.; Shah, R.; Shaikhiev, A.; Shaker, F.; Shaw, D.; Shiozawa, M.; Shirahige, T.; Smy, M.; Sobczyk, J. T.; Sobel, H.; Steinmann, J.; Stewart, T.; Stowell, P.; Suda, Y.; Suvorov, S.; Suzuki, A.; Suzuki, S. Y.; Suzuki, Y.; Tacik, R.; Tada, M.; Takeda, A.; Takeuchi, Y.; Tamura, R.; Tanaka, H. K.; Tanaka, H. A.; Thakore, T.; Thompson, L. F.; Tobayama, S.; Toki, W.; Tomura, T.; Tsukamoto, T.; Tzanov, M.; Vagins, M.; Vallari, Z.; Vasseur, G.; Vilela, C.; Vladisavljevic, T.; Wachala, T.; Walter, C. W.; Wark, D.; Wascko, M. O.; Weber, A.; Wendell, R.; Wilking, M. J.; Wilkinson, C.; Wilson, J. R.; Wilson, R. J.; Wret, C.; Yamada, Y.; Yamamoto, K.; Yanagisawa, C.; Yano, T.; Yen, S.; Yershov, N.; Yokoyama, M.; Yu, M.; Zalewska, A.; Zalipska, J.; Zambelli, L.; Zaremba, K.; Ziembicki, M.; Zimmerman, E. D.; Zito, M.; T2K Collaboration

2017-11-01

The T2K experiment reports an updated analysis of neutrino and antineutrino oscillations in appearance and disappearance channels. A sample of electron neutrino candidates at Super-Kamiokande in which a pion decay has been tagged is added to the four single-ring samples used in previous T2K oscillation analyses. Through combined analyses of these five samples, simultaneous measurements of four oscillation parameters, |Δ m322 |, sin2θ23, sin2θ13, and δCP and of the mass ordering are made. A set of studies of simulated data indicates that the sensitivity to the oscillation parameters is not limited by neutrino interaction model uncertainty. Multiple oscillation analyses are performed, and frequentist and Bayesian intervals are presented for combinations of the oscillation parameters with and without the inclusion of reactor constraints on sin2θ13. When combined with reactor measurements, the hypothesis of C P conservation (δCP=0 or π ) is excluded at 90% confidence level. The 90% confidence region for δCP is [-2.95 ,-0.44 ] ([-1.47 ,-1.27 ] ) for normal (inverted) ordering. The central values and 68% confidence intervals for the other oscillation parameters for normal (inverted) ordering are Δ m322=2.54 ±0.08 (2.51 ±0.08 )×10-3 eV2/c4 and sin2θ23 =0.5 5-0.09+0.05 (0.5 5-0.08+0.05), compatible with maximal mixing. In the Bayesian analysis, the data weakly prefer normal ordering (Bayes factor 3.7) and the upper octant for sin2θ23 (Bayes factor 2.4).

Fundamentals in Biostatistics for Research in Pediatric Dentistry: Part I - Basic Concepts.

PubMed

Garrocho-Rangel, J A; Ruiz-Rodríguez, M S; Pozos-Guillén, A J

The purpose of this report was to provide the reader with some basic concepts in order to better understand the significance and reliability of the results of any article on Pediatric Dentistry. Currently, Pediatric Dentists need the best evidence available in the literature on which to base their diagnoses and treatment decisions for the children's oral care. Basic understanding of Biostatistics plays an important role during the entire Evidence-Based Dentistry (EBD) process. This report describes Biostatistics fundamentals in order to introduce the basic concepts used in statistics, such as summary measures, estimation, hypothesis testing, effect size, level of significance, p value, confidence intervals, etc., which are available to Pediatric Dentists interested in reading or designing original clinical or epidemiological studies.

Effective field theory search for high-energy nuclear recoils using the XENON100 dark matter detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aprile, E.; Aalbers, J.; Agostini, F.; Alfonsi, M.; Amaro, F. D.; Anthony, M.; Arneodo, F.; Barrow, P.; Baudis, L.; Bauermeister, B.; Benabderrahmane, M. L.; Berger, T.; Breur, P. A.; Brown, A.; Brown, E.; Bruenner, S.; Bruno, G.; Budnik, R.; Bütikofer, L.; Calvén, J.; Cardoso, J. M. R.; Cervantes, M.; Cichon, D.; Coderre, D.; Colijn, A. P.; Conrad, J.; Cussonneau, J. P.; Decowski, M. P.; de Perio, P.; di Gangi, P.; di Giovanni, A.; Diglio, S.; Eurin, G.; Fei, J.; Ferella, A. D.; Fieguth, A.; Fulgione, W.; Gallo Rosso, A.; Galloway, M.; Gao, F.; Garbini, M.; Geis, C.; Goetzke, L. W.; Greene, Z.; Grignon, C.; Hasterok, C.; Hogenbirk, E.; Itay, R.; Kaminsky, B.; Kazama, S.; Kessler, G.; Kish, A.; Landsman, H.; Lang, R. F.; Lellouch, D.; Levinson, L.; Lin, Q.; Lindemann, S.; Lindner, M.; Lombardi, F.; Lopes, J. A. M.; Manfredini, A.; Maris, I.; Marrodán Undagoitia, T.; Masbou, J.; Massoli, F. V.; Masson, D.; Mayani, D.; Messina, M.; Micheneau, K.; Molinario, A.; Morâ, K.; Murra, M.; Naganoma, J.; Ni, K.; Oberlack, U.; Pakarha, P.; Pelssers, B.; Persiani, R.; Piastra, F.; Pienaar, J.; Pizzella, V.; Piro, M.-C.; Plante, G.; Priel, N.; Rauch, L.; Reichard, S.; Reuter, C.; Rizzo, A.; Rosendahl, S.; Rupp, N.; Dos Santos, J. M. F.; Sartorelli, G.; Scheibelhut, M.; Schindler, S.; Schreiner, J.; Schumann, M.; Scotto Lavina, L.; Selvi, M.; Shagin, P.; Silva, M.; Simgen, H.; Sivers, M. V.; Stein, A.; Thers, D.; Tiseni, A.; Trinchero, G.; Tunnell, C.; Vargas, M.; Wang, H.; Wang, Z.; Wei, Y.; Weinheimer, C.; Wulf, J.; Ye, J.; Zhang., Y.; Farmer, B.; Xenon Collaboration

2017-08-01

We report on weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) search results in the XENON100 detector using a nonrelativistic effective field theory approach. The data from science run II (34 kg ×224.6 live days) were reanalyzed, with an increased recoil energy interval compared to previous analyses, ranging from (6.6 -240 ) keVnr . The data are found to be compatible with the background-only hypothesis. We present 90% confidence level exclusion limits on the coupling constants of WIMP-nucleon effective operators using a binned profile likelihood method. We also consider the case of inelastic WIMP scattering, where incident WIMPs may up-scatter to a higher mass state, and set exclusion limits on this model as well.

Expression of Proteins Involved in Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition as Predictors of Metastasis and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Ptrend 0.78 0.62 0.75 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of node...Ptrend 0.71 0.67 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of high-grade tumors... logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between each of the seven SNPs and

Supporting shared hypothesis testing in the biomedical domain.

PubMed

Agibetov, Asan; Jiménez-Ruiz, Ernesto; Ondrésik, Marta; Solimando, Alessandro; Banerjee, Imon; Guerrini, Giovanna; Catalano, Chiara E; Oliveira, Joaquim M; Patanè, Giuseppe; Reis, Rui L; Spagnuolo, Michela

2018-02-08

Pathogenesis of inflammatory diseases can be tracked by studying the causality relationships among the factors contributing to its development. We could, for instance, hypothesize on the connections of the pathogenesis outcomes to the observed conditions. And to prove such causal hypotheses we would need to have the full understanding of the causal relationships, and we would have to provide all the necessary evidences to support our claims. In practice, however, we might not possess all the background knowledge on the causality relationships, and we might be unable to collect all the evidence to prove our hypotheses. In this work we propose a methodology for the translation of biological knowledge on causality relationships of biological processes and their effects on conditions to a computational framework for hypothesis testing. The methodology consists of two main points: hypothesis graph construction from the formalization of the background knowledge on causality relationships, and confidence measurement in a causality hypothesis as a normalized weighted path computation in the hypothesis graph. In this framework, we can simulate collection of evidences and assess confidence in a causality hypothesis by measuring it proportionally to the amount of available knowledge and collected evidences. We evaluate our methodology on a hypothesis graph that represents both contributing factors which may cause cartilage degradation and the factors which might be caused by the cartilage degradation during osteoarthritis. Hypothesis graph construction has proven to be robust to the addition of potentially contradictory information on the simultaneously positive and negative effects. The obtained confidence measures for the specific causality hypotheses have been validated by our domain experts, and, correspond closely to their subjective assessments of confidences in investigated hypotheses. Overall, our methodology for a shared hypothesis testing framework exhibits important properties that researchers will find useful in literature review for their experimental studies, planning and prioritizing evidence collection acquisition procedures, and testing their hypotheses with different depths of knowledge on causal dependencies of biological processes and their effects on the observed conditions.

Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

PubMed

Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

2012-08-01

Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

Exposure to power frequency electric fields and the risk of childhood cancer in the UK

PubMed Central

Skinner, J; Mee, T J; Blackwell, R P; Maslanyj, M P; Simpson, J; Allen, S G; Day, N E

2002-01-01

The United Kingdom Childhood Cancer Study, a population-based case–control study covering the whole of Great Britain, incorporated a pilot study measuring electric fields. Measurements were made in the homes of 473 children who were diagnosed with a malignant neoplasm between 1992 and 1996 and who were aged 0–14 at diagnosis, together with 453 controls matched on age, sex and geographical location. Exposure assessments comprised resultant spot measurements in the child's bedroom and the family living-room. Temporal stability of bedroom fields was investigated through continuous logging of the 48-h vertical component at the child's bedside supported by repeat spot measurements. The principal exposure metric used was the mean of the pillow and bed centre measurements. For the 273 cases and 276 controls with fully validated measures, comparing those with a measured electric field exposure ⩾20 V m−1 to those in a reference category of exposure <10 V m−1, odds ratios of 1.31 (95% confidence interval 0.68–2.54) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.73–2.39) for total leukaemia, 2.12 (95% confidence interval 0.78–5.78) for central nervous system cancers and 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.77–2.07) for all malignancies were obtained. When considering the 426 cases and 419 controls with no invalid measures, the corresponding odds ratios were 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.49–1.51) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.56–1.54) for total leukaemia, 1.43 (95% confidence interval 0.68–3.02) for central nervous system cancers and 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.59–1.35) for all malignancies. With exposure modelled as a continuous variable, odds ratios for an increase in the principal metric of 10 V m−1 were close to unity for all disease categories, never differing significantly from one. British Journal of Cancer (2002) 87, 1257–1266. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600602 www.bjcancer.com © 2002 Cancer Research UK PMID:12439715

A risk score for predicting coronary artery disease in women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test finding.

PubMed

Lo, Monica Y; Bonthala, Nirupama; Holper, Elizabeth M; Banks, Kamakki; Murphy, Sabina A; McGuire, Darren K; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit

2013-03-15

Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do physical leisure time activities prevent fatigue? A 15 month prospective study of nurses' aides.

PubMed

Eriksen, W; Bruusgaard, D

2004-06-01

To test the hypothesis that physical leisure time activities reduce the risk of developing persistent fatigue. The hypothesis was tested in a sample that was homogeneous with respect to sex and occupation, with a prospective cohort design. Of 6234 vocationally active, female, Norwegian nurses' aides, not on leave because of illness or pregnancy when they completed a mailed questionnaire in 1999, 5341 (85.7%) completed a second questionnaire 15 months later. The main outcome measure was the prevalence of persistent fatigue-that is, always or usually feeling fatigued in the daytime during the preceding 14 days. In participants without persistent fatigue at baseline, reported engagement in physical leisure time activities for 20 minutes or more at least once a week during the three months before baseline was associated with a reduced risk of persistent fatigue at the follow up (odds ratio = 0.70; 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 0.89), after adjustments for age, affective symptoms, sleeping problems, musculoskeletal pain, long term health problems of any kind, smoking, marital status, tasks of a caring nature during leisure time, and work factors at baseline. The study supports the hypothesis that physical leisure time activities reduce the risk of developing persistent fatigue.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

The Role of Short-Term Memory Capacity and Task Experience for Overconfidence in Judgment under Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansson, Patrik; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

2008-01-01

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from…

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Towards the estimation of effect measures in studies using respondent-driven sampling.

PubMed

Rotondi, Michael A

2014-06-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an increasingly common sampling technique to recruit hidden populations. Statistical methods for RDS are not straightforward due to the correlation between individual outcomes and subject weighting; thus, analyses are typically limited to estimation of population proportions. This manuscript applies the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) to construct confidence intervals for effect measures such as risk difference (difference of proportions) or relative risk in studies using RDS. To illustrate the approach, MOVER is used to construct confidence intervals for differences in the prevalence of demographic characteristics between an RDS study and convenience study of injection drug users. MOVER is then applied to obtain a confidence interval for the relative risk between education levels and HIV seropositivity and current infection with syphilis, respectively. This approach provides a simple method to construct confidence intervals for effect measures in RDS studies. Since it only relies on a proportion and appropriate confidence limits, it can also be applied to previously published manuscripts.

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tully, Phillip J; Cosh, Suzanne M

2013-12-01

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease patients remain unquantified. Systematic searching of Medline, Embase, SCOPUS and PsycINFO databases revealed 1025 unique citations. Aggregate generalized anxiety disorder prevalence (12 studies, N = 3485) was 10.94 per cent (95% confidence interval: 7.8-13.99) and 13.52 per cent (95% confidence interval: 8.39-18.66) employing Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria (random effects). Lifetime generalized anxiety disorder prevalence was 25.80 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20.84-30.77). In seven studies, modest correlation was evident between generalized anxiety disorder and depression, Fisher's Z = .30 (95% confidence interval: .19-.42), suggesting that each psychiatric disorder is best conceptualized as contributing unique variance to coronary heart disease prognosis.

Autonomous motivation mediates the relation between goals for physical activity and physical activity behavior in adolescents.

PubMed

Duncan, Michael J; Eyre, Emma Lj; Bryant, Elizabeth; Seghers, Jan; Galbraith, Niall; Nevill, Alan M

2017-04-01

Overall, 544 children (mean age ± standard deviation = 14.2 ± .94 years) completed self-report measures of physical activity goal content, behavioral regulations, and physical activity behavior. Body mass index was determined from height and mass. The indirect effect of intrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 162.27; 95% confidence interval [89.73, 244.70]), but not controlled motivation ( b = 5.30; 95% confidence interval [-39.05, 45.16]). The indirect effect of extrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 106.25; 95% confidence interval [63.74, 159.13]) but not controlled motivation ( b = 17.28; 95% confidence interval [-31.76, 70.21]). Weight status did not alter these findings.

Confidence intervals for a difference between lognormal means in cluster randomization trials.

PubMed

Poirier, Julia; Zou, G Y; Koval, John

2017-04-01

Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia.

One-way ANOVA based on interval information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hesamian, Gholamreza

2016-08-01

This paper deals with extending the one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) to the case where the observed data are represented by closed intervals rather than real numbers. In this approach, first a notion of interval random variable is introduced. Especially, a normal distribution with interval parameters is introduced to investigate hypotheses about the equality of interval means or test the homogeneity of interval variances assumption. Moreover, the least significant difference (LSD method) for investigating multiple comparison of interval means is developed when the null hypothesis about the equality of means is rejected. Then, at a given interval significance level, an index is applied to compare the interval test statistic and the related interval critical value as a criterion to accept or reject the null interval hypothesis of interest. Finally, the method of decision-making leads to some degrees to accept or reject the interval hypotheses. An applied example will be used to show the performance of this method.

Bruxism and Dental Implants: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Chrcanovic, Bruno Ramos; Albrektsson, Tomas; Wennerberg, Ann

2015-10-01

To test the null hypothesis of no difference in the implant failure rates, postoperative infection, and marginal bone loss after the insertion of dental implants in bruxers compared with the insertion in non-bruxers against the alternative hypothesis of a difference. An electronic search was undertaken in June 2014. Eligibility criteria included clinical studies, either randomized or not. Ten publications were included with a total of 760 implants inserted in bruxers (49 failures; 6.45%) and 2989 in non-bruxers (109 failures; 3.65%). Due to lack of information, meta-analyses for the outcomes "postoperative infection" and "marginal bone loss" were not possible. A risk ratio of 2.93 was found (95% confidence interval, 1.48-5.81; P = 0.002). These results cannot suggest that the insertion of dental implants in bruxers affects the implant failure rates due to a limited number of published studies, all characterized by a low level of specificity, and most of them deal with a limited number of cases without a control group. Therefore, the real effect of bruxing habits on the osseointegration and survival of endosteal dental implants is still not well established.

A large Great Britain-wide outbreak of STEC O157 phage type 8 linked to handling of raw leeks and potatoes.

PubMed

Launders, N; Locking, M E; Hanson, M; Willshaw, G; Charlett, A; Salmon, R; Cowden, J; Harker, K S; Adak, G K

2016-01-01

Between December 2010 and July 2011, 252 cases of STEC O157 PT8 stx1 + 2 infection were reported in England, Scotland and Wales. This was the largest outbreak of STEC reported in England and the second largest in the UK to date. Eighty cases were hospitalized, with two cases of haemolytic uraemic syndrome and one death reported. Routine investigative data were used to generate a hypothesis but the subsequent case-control study was inconclusive. A second, more detailed, hypothesis generation exercise identified consumption or handling of vegetables as a potential mode of transmission. A second case-control study demonstrated that cases were more likely than controls to live in households whose members handled or prepared leeks bought unwrapped [odds ratio (OR) 40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·08-769·4], and potatoes bought in sacks (OR 13·13, 95% CI 1·19-145·3). This appears to be the first outbreak of STEC O157 infection linked to the handling of leeks.

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

PubMed

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Statistical inference for the within-device precision of quantitative measurements in assay validation.

PubMed

Liu, Jen-Pei; Lu, Li-Tien; Liao, C T

2009-09-01

Intermediate precision is one of the most important characteristics for evaluation of precision in assay validation. The current methods for evaluation of within-device precision recommended by the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) guideline EP5-A2 are based on the point estimator. On the other hand, in addition to point estimators, confidence intervals can provide a range for the within-device precision with a probability statement. Therefore, we suggest a confidence interval approach for assessment of the within-device precision. Furthermore, under the two-stage nested random-effects model recommended by the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2, in addition to the current Satterthwaite's approximation and the modified large sample (MLS) methods, we apply the technique of generalized pivotal quantities (GPQ) to derive the confidence interval for the within-device precision. The data from the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2 illustrate the applications of the confidence interval approach and comparison of results between the three methods. Results of a simulation study on the coverage probability and expected length of the three methods are reported. The proposed method of the GPQ-based confidence intervals is also extended to consider the between-laboratories variation for precision assessment.

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English

2000-01-01

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

Does blood transfusion affect intermediate survival after coronary artery bypass surgery?

PubMed

Mikkola, R; Heikkinen, J; Lahtinen, J; Paone, R; Juvonen, T; Biancari, F

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of transfusion of blood products on intermediate outcome after coronary artery bypass surgery. Complete data on perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery were available from 2001 patients who were operated at our institution. Transfusion of any blood product (relative risk = 1.678, 95% confidence interval = 1.087-2.590) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The additive effect of each blood product on all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.401, 95% confidence interval = 1.203-1.630) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 1.553, 95% confidence interval = 1.273-1.895) was evident when the sum of each blood product was included in the regression models. However, when single blood products were included in the regression model, transfusion of fresh frozen plasma/Octaplas® was the only blood product associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.692, 95% confidence interval = 1.222-2.344) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 2.125, 95% confidence interval = 1.414-3.194). The effect of blood product transfusion was particularly evident during the first three postoperative months. Since follow-up was truncated at 3 months, transfusion of any blood product was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 2.998, 95% confidence interval = 1.053-0.537). Analysis of patients who survived or had at least 3 months of potential follow-up showed that transfusion of any blood product was not associated with a significantly increased risk of intermediate all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.430, 95% confidence interval = 0.880-2.323). Transfusion of any blood product is associated with a significant risk of all-cause and cardiac mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery. Such a risk seems to be limited to the early postoperative period and diminishes later on. Among blood products, perioperative use of fresh frozen plasma or Octaplas seems to be the main determinant of mortality.

Rapid Contour-based Segmentation for 18F-FDG PET Imaging of Lung Tumors by Using ITK-SNAP: Comparison to Expert-based Segmentation.

PubMed

Besson, Florent L; Henry, Théophraste; Meyer, Céline; Chevance, Virgile; Roblot, Victoire; Blanchet, Elise; Arnould, Victor; Grimon, Gilles; Chekroun, Malika; Mabille, Laurence; Parent, Florence; Seferian, Andrei; Bulifon, Sophie; Montani, David; Humbert, Marc; Chaumet-Riffaud, Philippe; Lebon, Vincent; Durand, Emmanuel

2018-04-03

Purpose To assess the performance of the ITK-SNAP software for fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) segmentation of complex-shaped lung tumors compared with an optimized, expert-based manual reference standard. Materials and Methods Seventy-six FDG PET images of thoracic lesions were retrospectively segmented by using ITK-SNAP software. Each tumor was manually segmented by six raters to generate an optimized reference standard by using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimate algorithm. Four raters segmented 76 FDG PET images of lung tumors twice by using ITK-SNAP active contour algorithm. Accuracy of ITK-SNAP procedure was assessed by using Dice coefficient and Hausdorff metric. Interrater and intrarater reliability were estimated by using intraclass correlation coefficients of output volumes. Finally, the ITK-SNAP procedure was compared with currently recommended PET tumor delineation methods on the basis of thresholding at 41% volume of interest (VOI; VOI 41 ) and 50% VOI (VOI 50 ) of the tumor's maximal metabolism intensity. Results Accuracy estimates for the ITK-SNAP procedure indicated a Dice coefficient of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.89) and a Hausdorff distance of 12.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 9.82, 15.32). Interrater reliability was an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 0.96). The intrarater reliabilities were intraclass correlation coefficients above 0.97. Finally, VOI 41 and VOI 50 accuracy metrics were as follows: Dice coefficient, 0.48 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.51) and 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.30, 0.38), respectively, and Hausdorff distance, 25.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 21.7, 31.4) and 31.3 mm (95% confidence interval: 26.8, 38.4), respectively. Conclusion ITK-SNAP is accurate and reliable for active-contour-based segmentation of heterogeneous thoracic PET tumors. ITK-SNAP surpassed the recommended PET methods compared with ground truth manual segmentation. © RSNA, 2018.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Ten studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0. 90); and a trend to reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.00). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0. 12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2002-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in order to provide robust estimates of bias and precision for constructing confidence intervals for new patients. Assumptions of linearity and non-proportional bias should be assessed thoroughly.

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

Influence of platform switching on bone-level alterations: a three-year randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Enkling, N; Jöhren, P; Katsoulis, J; Bayer, S; Jervøe-Storm, P-M; Mericske-Stern, R; Jepsen, S

2013-12-01

The concept of platform switching has been introduced to implant dentistry based on clinical observations of reduced peri-implant crestal bone loss. However, published data are controversial, and most studies are limited to 12 months. The aim of the present randomized clinical trial was to test the hypothesis that platform switching has a positive impact on crestal bone-level changes after 3 years. Two implants with a diameter of 4 mm were inserted crestally in the posterior mandible of 25 patients. The intraindividual allocation of platform switching (3.3-mm platform) and the standard implant (4-mm platform) was randomized. After 3 months of submerged healing, single-tooth crowns were cemented. Patients were followed up at short intervals for monitoring of healing and oral hygiene. Statistical analysis for the influence of time and platform type on bone levels employed the Brunner-Langer model. At 3 years, the mean radiographic peri-implant bone loss was 0.69 ± 0.43 mm (platform switching) and 0.74 ± 0.57 mm (standard platform). The mean intraindividual difference was 0.05 ± 0.58 mm (95% confidence interval: -0.19, 0.29). Crestal bone-level alteration depended on time (p < .001) but not on platform type (p = .363). The present randomized clinical trial could not confirm the hypothesis of a reduced peri-implant crestal bone loss, when implants had been restored according to the concept of platform switching.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Fermi/GBM GRB time-resolved spectral catalog (Yu+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-F.; Preece, R. D.; Greiner, J.; Bhat, P. N.; Bissaldi, E.; Briggs, M. S.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V.; Goldstein, A.; von Kienlin; A.; Kouveliotou, C.; Mailyan, B.; Meegan, C. A.; Paciesas, W. S.; Rau, A.; Roberts, O. J.; Veres, P.; Wilson-Hodge, C.; Zhang, B.-B.; van Eerten, H. J.

2016-01-01

Time-resolved spectral analysis results of BEST models: for each spectrum GRB name using the Fermi GBM trigger designation, spectrum number within individual burst, start time Tstart and end time Tstop for the time bin, BEST model, best-fit parameters of the BEST model, value of CSTAT per degrees of freedom, 10keV-1MeV photon and energy flux are given. Ep evolutionary trends: for each burst GRB name, number of spectra with Ep, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep_ and photon flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep and energy flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Ep and time and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by computer for 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by human eyes are given. (2 data files).

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Pregnancy and birth outcomes in couples with infertility with and without assisted reproductive technology: with an emphasis on US population-based studies.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara

2017-09-01

Infertility, defined as the inability to conceive within 1 year of unprotected intercourse, affects an estimated 80 million individuals worldwide, or 10-15% of couples of reproductive age. Assisted reproductive technology includes all infertility treatments to achieve conception; in vitro fertilization is the process by which an oocyte is fertilized by semen outside the body; non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology treatments include ovulation induction, artificial insemination, and intrauterine insemination. Use of assisted reproductive technology has risen steadily in the United States during the past 2 decades due to several reasons, including childbearing at older maternal ages and increasing insurance coverage. The number of in vitro fertilization cycles in the United States has nearly doubled from 2000 through 2013 and currently 1.7% of all live births in the United States are the result of this technology. Since the birth of the first child from in vitro fertilization >35 years ago, >5 million babies have been born from in vitro fertilization, half within the past 6 years. It is estimated that 1% of singletons, 19% of twins, and 25% of triplet or higher multiples are due to in vitro fertilization, and 4%, 21%, and 52%, respectively, are due to non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology. Higher plurality at birth results in a >10-fold increase in the risks for prematurity and low birthweight in twins vs singletons (adjusted odds ratio, 11.84; 95% confidence interval, 10.56-13.27 and adjusted odds ratio, 10.68; 95% confidence interval, 9.45-12.08, respectively). The use of donor oocytes is associated with increased risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.78) and prematurity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.83). The use of thawed embryos is associated with higher risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.57) and large-for-gestation birthweight (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.08). Among singletons, in vitro fertilization is associated with increased risk of severe maternal morbidity compared with fertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.88; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.98, respectively) and subfertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-3.00; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.35, respectively). Among twins, cesarean in vitro fertilization deliveries have significantly greater severe maternal morbidity compared to cesarean fertile deliveries (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.93). Subfertility, with or without in vitro fertilization or non-in vitro fertilization infertility treatments to achieve a pregnancy, is associated with increased risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. The major risk from in vitro fertilization treatments of multiple births (and the associated excess of perinatal morbidity) has been reduced over time, with fewer and better-quality embryos being transferred. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Family environment, hobbies and habits as psychosocial predictors of survival for surgically treated patients with breast cancer.

PubMed

Tominaga, K; Andow, J; Koyama, Y; Numao, S; Kurokawa, E; Ojima, M; Nagai, M

1998-01-01

Many psychosocial factors have been reported to influence the duration of survival of breast cancer patients. We have studied how family members, hobbies and habits of the patients may alter their psychosocial status. Female patients with surgically treated breast cancer diagnosed between 1986 and 1995 at the Tochigi Cancer Center Hospital, who provided information on the above-mentioned factors, were used. Their subsequent physical status was followed up in the outpatients clinic. The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between the results of the factors examined and the duration of the patients' survival, adjusting for the patients' age, stage of disease at diagnosis and curability, as judged by the physician in charge after the treatment. The following factors were revealed to be significant with regard to the survival of surgically treated breast cancer patients: being a widow (hazard ratio 3.29; 95% confidence interval 1.32-8.20), having a hobby (hazard ratio 0.43; 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.82), number of hobbies (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.41-1.00), number of female children (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.42-0.98), smoker (hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval 1.02-4.26) and alcohol consumption (hazard ratio 0.10; 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.72). These results suggest that psychosocial factors, including the family environment, where patients receive emotional support from their spouse and children, hobbies and the patients' habits, may influence the duration of survival in surgically treated breast cancer patients.

Limits, discovery and cut optimization for a Poisson process with uncertainty in background and signal efficiency: TRolke 2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundberg, J.; Conrad, J.; Rolke, W.; Lopez, A.

2010-03-01

A C++ class was written for the calculation of frequentist confidence intervals using the profile likelihood method. Seven combinations of Binomial, Gaussian, Poissonian and Binomial uncertainties are implemented. The package provides routines for the calculation of upper and lower limits, sensitivity and related properties. It also supports hypothesis tests which take uncertainties into account. It can be used in compiled C++ code, in Python or interactively via the ROOT analysis framework. Program summaryProgram title: TRolke version 2.0 Catalogue identifier: AEFT_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEFT_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: MIT license No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 3431 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 21 789 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: ISO C++. Computer: Unix, GNU/Linux, Mac. Operating system: Linux 2.6 (Scientific Linux 4 and 5, Ubuntu 8.10), Darwin 9.0 (Mac-OS X 10.5.8). RAM:˜20 MB Classification: 14.13. External routines: ROOT ( http://root.cern.ch/drupal/) Nature of problem: The problem is to calculate a frequentist confidence interval on the parameter of a Poisson process with statistical or systematic uncertainties in signal efficiency or background. Solution method: Profile likelihood method, Analytical Running time:<10 seconds per extracted limit.

Statistical inference for extended or shortened phase II studies based on Simon's two-stage designs.

PubMed

Zhao, Junjun; Yu, Menggang; Feng, Xi-Ping

2015-06-07

Simon's two-stage designs are popular choices for conducting phase II clinical trials, especially in the oncology trials to reduce the number of patients placed on ineffective experimental therapies. Recently Koyama and Chen (2008) discussed how to conduct proper inference for such studies because they found that inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan used. In particular, they proposed an inference method for studies when the actual second stage sample sizes differ from planned ones. We consider an alternative inference method based on likelihood ratio. In particular, we order permissible sample paths under Simon's two-stage designs using their corresponding conditional likelihood. In this way, we can calculate p-values using the common definition: the probability of obtaining a test statistic value at least as extreme as that observed under the null hypothesis. In addition to providing inference for a couple of scenarios where Koyama and Chen's method can be difficult to apply, the resulting estimate based on our method appears to have certain advantage in terms of inference properties in many numerical simulations. It generally led to smaller biases and narrower confidence intervals while maintaining similar coverages. We also illustrated the two methods in a real data setting. Inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan. Reported P-values, point estimates and confidence intervals for the response rate are not usually adjusted for the design's adaptiveness. Proper statistical inference procedures should be used.

Pancreatic Cancer and Exposure to Dietary Nitrate and Nitrite in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

PubMed Central

Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Cross, Amanda J.; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael Z.; Schatzkin, Arthur; Hollenbeck, Albert R.; Sinha, Rashmi; Ward, Mary H.

2011-01-01

Nitrate and nitrite are precursors of N-nitroso compounds, which induce tumors of the pancreas in animals. The authors evaluated the relation of dietary nitrate and nitrite to pancreatic cancer risk in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. Nitrate and nitrite intakes were assessed at baseline using a 124-item food frequency questionnaire. During approximately 10 years of follow-up between 1995 and 2006, 1,728 incident pancreatic cancer cases were identified. There was no association between total nitrate or nitrite intake and pancreatic cancer in men or women. However, men in the highest quintile of summed nitrate/nitrite intake from processed meat had a nonsignificantly elevated risk of pancreatic cancer (hazard ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.95, 1.47; P-trend = 0.11). The authors observed a stronger increase in risk among men for nitrate/nitrite intake from processed meat at ages 12–13 years (highest quintile vs. lowest: hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% confidence interval: 0.99, 1.76; P-trend = 0.11), though the relation did not achieve statistical significance. The authors found no associations between adult or adolescent nitrate or nitrite intake from processed meats and pancreatic cancer among women. These results provide modest evidence that processed meat sources of dietary nitrate and nitrite may be associated with pancreatic cancer among men and provide no support for the hypothesis in women. PMID:21685410

Dismounted Blast Injuries in Patients Treated at a Role 3 Military Hospital in Afghanistan: Patterns of Injury and Mortality.

PubMed

Oh, John S; Tubb, Creighton C; Poepping, Thomas P; Ryan, Paul; Clasper, Jonathan C; Katschke, Adrian R; Tuman, Caroline; Murray, Michael J

2016-09-01

The purposes of this study are to define the pattern of injuries sustained by dismounted troops exposed to improvised explosive devices blasts treated at a Role 3 combat support hospital and to assess injury patterns and mortality associated with the mechanism. Our hypothesis was that mortality is associated with pelvic fracture, massive transfusion, high Injury Severity Score (ISS), multiple limb amputations, and transfer from a Role 2 facility. Retrospective study of 457 patients. Analysis performed on trauma registry data and systematic review of radiographs. 99.9% were men with a median age of 23 years and median ISS 10. 141 patients (30.9%) required massive blood transfusion. Limb amputations were frequently observed injuries, 109 of 172 amputees (63.4%) had a double amputation. 34 subjects (7.4%) had pelvic fractures; majority of pelvic fractures (88%) were unstable (Tile B or C). Risk factors associated with the overall mortality rate of 1.8% were an ISS greater than 15 (odds ratio: 11.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.38, 533; p = 0.009), need for massive transfusion (p < 0.0001), and the presence of a pelvic fracture (odds ratio: 7.63; 95% confidence interval: 1.13, 41.3; p = 0.018). Dismounted improvised explosive devices blast injuries result in devastating multiple limb amputations and unstable pelvic fractures, which are associated with mortality after initial trauma resuscitation at a Role 3 hospital. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Association of adherence to the seventh report of the Joint National Committee guidelines with hypertension in Korean men and women.

PubMed

Kim, Hye In; Song, Yoonju; Kim, Woo-Young; Lee, Jung Eun

2013-10-01

Whether the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC-7) guidelines can be applied to the Asian population remains unclear. We aim to test the hypothesis that adherence to the JNC-7 guidelines is associated with hypertension in a representative sample of the Korean population in the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Participants completed a non-quantitative food frequency questionnaire and 24-hour diet recall through interviews. Blood pressure, height, and weight were directly measured, and questions about physical activity and other lifestyle factors were administered. A total of 500 hypertensive and 4567 normotensive participants were identified. We estimated the odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals using a multivariate logistic regression. The following components of the JNC-7 guidelines were considered: dietary approaches to stop a hypertension style diet, moderate consumption of alcohol, adequate physical activity, and a normal body mass index. Those individuals who fell in the low-risk category for all 4 lifestyle components had an odds ratio of 0.48 (95% confidence interval, 0.30-0.78) compared with the remainder of the participants. In conclusion, we found an inverse association between adherence to the JNC-7 guidelines and hypertension prevalence among Korean adults, suggesting the importance of lifestyle modification for the prevention and management of hypertension. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Alloimmune responses and atherosclerotic disease after kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Ducloux, Didier; Courivaud, Cécile; Bamoulid, Jamal; Bisaccia, Vincent; Roubiou, Caroline; Crepin, Thomas; Gaugler, Béatrice; Laheurte, Caroline; Rebibou, Jean-Michel; Chalopin, Jean-Marc; Saas, Philippe

2015-01-01

Chronic exposure to exogenous antigens causes accumulation of proinflammatory CD57(+)CD28(-) hyperactivated CD8(+) T cells that may promote atherosclerosis. We hypothesized that persistent alloimmune responses may induce immune activation and contribute to posttransplant atherosclerosis. This hypothesis was tested in a single-center cohort of 577 kidney transplant patients. Propensity score analysis was performed to address potential confounding variables by indication. Immune exhaustion was studied in subcohort of 103 patients. Five hundred seventy-seven consecutive renal transplant recipients were included. Seventy-seven atherosclerotic events (AE) (12.3%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 7 years. The cumulative incidence of AE increased with the number of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatches (18%, 10%, and 5% in patients with 5-6, 3-4, and 0-2 mismatches, respectively; P=0.012). Human leukocyte antigen mismatch number (hazards ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.66, for each supplementary mismatch; P=0.005) was an independent risk factor for AE. In the propensity score match analysis, having received a well-matched kidney conferred a reduced risk of AE (hazards ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.05-0.95; P=0.044). We observed a significant correlation between HLA mismatch numbers and circulating CD57(+)CD28(-) CD8(+) T cells (R=0.31; P=0.017). These CD8(+) T cells were more frequent in patients with more HLA mismatches (P<0.0001). Overall, our results suggest that chronic allogeneic stimulation participates to accelerated atherosclerosis observed after transplantation.

Association of Hormonal Contraceptive Use With Reduced Levels of Depressive Symptoms: A National Study of Sexually Active Women in the United States

PubMed Central

Keyes, Katherine M.; Cheslack-Postava, Keely; Westhoff, Carolyn; Heim, Christine M.; Haloossim, Michelle; Walsh, Kate; Koenen, Karestan

2013-01-01

An estimated 80% of sexually active young women in the United States use hormonal contraceptives during their reproductive years. Associations between hormonal contraceptive use and mood disturbances remain understudied, despite the hypothesis that estrogen and progesterone play a role in mood problems. In this study, we used data from 6,654 sexually active nonpregnant women across 4 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (1994–2008), focusing on women aged 25–34 years. Women were asked about hormonal contraceptive use in the context of a current sexual partnership; thus, contraceptive users were compared with other sexually active women who were using either nonhormonal contraception or no contraception. Depressive symptoms were assessed with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. At ages 25–34 years, hormonal contraceptive users had lower mean levels of concurrent depressive symptoms (β = −1.04, 95% confidence interval: −1.73, −0.35) and were less likely to report a past-year suicide attempt (odds ratio = 0.37, 95% confidence interval: 0.14, 0.95) than women using low-efficacy contraception or no contraception, in models adjusted for propensity scores for hormonal contraceptive use. Longitudinal analyses indicated that associations between hormonal contraception and depressive symptoms were stable. Hormonal contraception may reduce levels of depressive symptoms among young women. Systematic investigation of exogenous hormones as a potential preventive factor in psychiatric epidemiology is warranted. PMID:24043440

Mobile phone use and risk for intracranial tumors and salivary gland tumors - A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bortkiewicz, Alicja; Gadzicka, Elżbieta; Szymczak, Wiesław

2017-02-21

Results of epidemiological studies on the association between use of mobile phone and brain cancer are ambiguous, as well as the results of 5 meta-analysis studies published to date. Since the last meta-analysis (2009), new case-control studies have been published, which theoretically could affect the conclusions on this relationship. Therefore, we decided to perform a new meta-analysis. We conducted a systematic review of multiple electronic data bases for relevant publications. The inclusion criteria were: original papers, case-control studies, published till the end of March 2014, measures of association (point estimates as odds ratio and confidence interval of the effect measured), data on individual exposure. Twenty four studies (26 846 cases, 50 013 controls) were included into the meta-analysis. A significantly higher risk of an intracranial tumor (all types) was noted for the period of mobile phone use over 10 years (odds ratio (OR) = 1.324, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.028-1.704), and for the ipsilateral location (OR = 1.249, 95% CI: 1.022-1.526). The results support the hypothesis that long-term use of mobile phone increases risk of intracranial tumors, especially in the case of ipsilateral exposure. Further studies are needed to confirm this relationship. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2017;30(1)27-43. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

The Weather and Ménière’s Disease: A Longitudinal Analysis in the UK

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Wiebke; Sarran, Christophe; Ronan, Natalie; Barrett, George; Whinney, David J.; Fleming, Lora E.; Osborne, Nicholas J.; Tyrrell, Jessica

2016-01-01

Hypothesis Changes in the weather influence symptom severity in Ménière’s disease (MD). Background MD is an unpredictable condition that significantly impacts on quality of life. It is suggested that fluctuations in the weather, especially atmospheric pressure may influence the symptoms of MD. However, to date, limited research has investigated the impact of the weather on MD. Methods In a longitudinal study, a mobile phone application collected data from 397 individuals (277 females and 120 males with an average age of 50 yr) from the UK reporting consultant-diagnosed MD. Daily symptoms (vertigo, aural fullness, tinnitus, hearing loss, and attack prevalence) and GPS locations were collected; these data were linked with Met Office weather data (including atmospheric pressure, humidity, temperature, visibility, and wind speed). Results Symptom severity and attack prevalence were reduced on days when atmospheric pressure was higher. When atmospheric pressure was below 1,013 hectopascals, the risk of an attack was 1.30 (95% confidence interval: 1.10, 1.54); when the humidity was above 90%, the risk of an attack was 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.49). Conclusion This study provides the strongest evidence to date that changes in atmospheric pressure and humidity are associated with symptom exacerbation in MD. Improving our understanding of the role of weather and other environmental triggers in Ménière’s may reduce the uncertainty associated with living with this condition, significantly contributing to improved quality of life. PMID:27861300

Hair relaxer use and risk of uterine leiomyomata in African-American women.

PubMed

Wise, Lauren A; Palmer, Julie R; Reich, David; Cozier, Yvette C; Rosenberg, Lynn

2012-03-01

Hair relaxers are used by millions of black women, possibly exposing them to various chemicals through scalp lesions and burns. In the Black Women's Health Study, the authors assessed hair relaxer use in relation to uterine leiomyomata incidence. In 1997, participants reported on hair relaxer use (age at first use, frequency, duration, number of burns, and type of formulation). From 1997 to 2009, 23,580 premenopausal women were followed for incident uterine leiomyomata. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals. During 199,991 person-years, 7,146 cases of uterine leiomyomata were reported as confirmed by ultrasound (n = 4,630) or surgery (n = 2,516). The incidence rate ratio comparing ever with never use of relaxers was 1.17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.30). Positive trends were observed for frequency of use (P(trend) < 0.001), duration of use (P(trend) = 0.015), and number of burns (P(trend) < 0.001). Among long-term users (≥10 years), the incidence rate ratios for frequency of use categories 3-4, 5-6, and ≥7 versus 1-2 times/year were 1.04 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.19), 1.12 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.27), and 1.15 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.31), respectively (P(trend) = 0.002). Risk was unrelated to age at first use or type of formulation. These findings raise the hypothesis that hair relaxer use increases uterine leiomyomata risk.

Low-level lead exposure and the IQ of children. A meta-analysis of modern studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Needleman, H.L.; Gatsonis, C.A.

1990-02-02

We identified 24 modern studies of childhood exposures to lead in relation to IQ. From this population, 12 that employed multiple regression analysis with IQ as the dependent variable and lead as the main effect and that controlled for nonlead covariates were selected for a quantitative, integrated review or meta-analysis. The studies were grouped according to type of tissue analyzed for lead. There were 7 blood and 5 tooth lead studies. Within each group, we obtained joint P values by two different methods and average effect sizes as measured by the partial correlation coefficients. We also investigated the sensitivity ofmore » the results to any single study. The sample sizes ranged from 75 to 724. The sign of the regression coefficient for lead was negative in 11 of 12 studies. The negative partial r's for lead ranged from -.27 to -.003. The power to find an effect was limited, below 0.6 in 7 of 12 studies. The joint P values for the blood lead studies were less than .0001 for both methods of analysis (95% confidence interval for group partial r, -.15 {plus minus} .05), while for the tooth lead studies they were .0005 and .004, respectively (95% confidence interval for group partial r, -.08 {plus minus} .05). The hypothesis that lead impairs children's IQ at low dose is strongly supported by this quantitative review. The effect is robust to the impact of any single study.« less

Hair Relaxer Use and Risk of Uterine Leiomyomata in African-American Women

PubMed Central

Wise, Lauren A.; Palmer, Julie R.; Reich, David; Cozier, Yvette C.; Rosenberg, Lynn

2012-01-01

Hair relaxers are used by millions of black women, possibly exposing them to various chemicals through scalp lesions and burns. In the Black Women’s Health Study, the authors assessed hair relaxer use in relation to uterine leiomyomata incidence. In 1997, participants reported on hair relaxer use (age at first use, frequency, duration, number of burns, and type of formulation). From 1997 to 2009, 23,580 premenopausal women were followed for incident uterine leiomyomata. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals. During 199,991 person-years, 7,146 cases of uterine leiomyomata were reported as confirmed by ultrasound (n = 4,630) or surgery (n = 2,516). The incidence rate ratio comparing ever with never use of relaxers was 1.17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.30). Positive trends were observed for frequency of use (Ptrend < 0.001), duration of use (Ptrend = 0.015), and number of burns (Ptrend < 0.001). Among long-term users (≥10 years), the incidence rate ratios for frequency of use categories 3–4, 5–6, and ≥7 versus 1–2 times/year were 1.04 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.19), 1.12 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.27), and 1.15 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.31), respectively (Ptrend = 0.002). Risk was unrelated to age at first use or type of formulation. These findings raise the hypothesis that hair relaxer use increases uterine leiomyomata risk. PMID:22234483

Common Immune-Related Exposures/Conditions and Risk of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: A Case-Control Study of Disease-Discordant Twin Pairs

PubMed Central

Wang, Jun; Mack, Thomas M.; Hamilton, Ann S.; Hwang, Amie E.; Nathwani, Bharat N.; Masood, Kamil; Buchanan, Laura H.; Bernstein, Leslie; Deapen, Dennis M.; Martínez-Maza, Otoniel; Cozen, Wendy

2015-01-01

We evaluated the association between common immune system–altering experiences and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) risk using a case-control study of 162 like-sex twin pairs discordant for NHL, identified from the International Twin Study. Information on medical history and evidence of childhood exposure to microbes was obtained by questionnaire from 1998 to 2002. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Intra-twin-pair agreement between twins on individual exposures was high (76%–97%). A negative association between NHL and seasonal hay fever (odds ratio (OR) = 0.28, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10, 0.75) and certain allergies (OR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.13, 0.68) was observed. The number of atopic diseases was negatively associated with NHL (P for trend = 0.0003). A history of infectious mononucleosis was negatively associated with NHL risk (OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.90). NHL risk was associated with more frequent childhood exposure to microbes during early life (P for trend = 0.04). No differences in association by NHL subtype were observed, although statistical power for these comparisons was low. These observations support the hypothesis that immune-related exposures, especially atopy, are associated with decreased NHL risk. Use of the within-twin-pair study design mitigates confounding by genome, family structure, and unmeasured characteristics of early childhood factors. PMID:26271116

Taichi exercise for self-rated sleep quality in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Du, Shizheng; Dong, Jianshu; Zhang, Heng; Jin, Shengji; Xu, Guihua; Liu, Zengxia; Chen, Lixia; Yin, Haiyan; Sun, Zhiling

2015-01-01

Self-reported sleep disorders are common in older adults, resulting in serious consequences. Non-pharmacological measures are important complementary interventions, among which Taichi exercise is a popular alternative. Some experiments have been performed; however, the effect of Taichi exercise in improving sleep quality in older people has yet to be validated by systematic review. Using systematic review and meta-analysis, this study aimed to examine the efficacy of Taichi exercise in promoting self-reported sleep quality in older adults. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies. 4 English databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL, and 4 Chinese databases: CBMdisc, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang database were searched through December 2013. Two reviewers independently selected eligible trials, conducted critical appraisal of the methodological quality by using the quality appraisal criteria for randomized controlled studies recommended by Cochrane Handbook. A standardized data form was used to extract information. Meta-analysis was performed. Five randomized controlled studies met inclusion criteria. All suffered from some methodological flaws. The results of this study showed that Taichi has large beneficial effect on sleep quality in older people, as indicated by decreases in the global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score [standardized mean difference=-0.87, 95% confidence intervals (95% confidence interval) (-1.25, -0.49)], as well as its sub-domains of subjective sleep quality [standardized mean difference=-0.83, 95% confidence interval (-1.08, -0.57)], sleep latency [standardized mean difference=-0.75, 95% confidence interval (-1.42, -0.07)], sleep duration [standardized mean difference=-0.55, 95% confidence interval (-0.90, -0.21)], habitual sleep efficiency [standardized mean difference=-0.49, 95% confidence interval (-0.74, -0.23)], sleep disturbance [standardized mean difference=-0.44, 95% confidence interval (-0.69, -0.19)], and daytime dysfunction [standardized mean difference=-0.34, 95% confidence interval (-0.59, -0.09)]. Daytime sleepiness improvement was also observed. Weak evidence shows that Taichi exercise has a beneficial effect in improving self-rated sleep quality for older adults, suggesting that Taichi could be an effective alternative and complementary approach to existing therapies for older people with sleep problems. More rigorous experimental studies are required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Previous treatment, sputum-smear nonconversion, and suburban living: The risk factors of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysians.

PubMed

Mohd Shariff, Noorsuzana; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Kamaludin, Fadzilah

2016-03-01

The number of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients is increasing each year in many countries all around the globe. Malaysia has no exception in facing this burdensome health problem. We aimed to investigate the factors that contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysian tuberculosis patients. An unmatched case-control study was conducted among tuberculosis patients who received antituberculosis treatments from April 2013 until April 2014. Cases are those diagnosed as pulmonary tuberculosis patients clinically, radiologically, and/or bacteriologically, and who were confirmed to be resistant to both isoniazid and rifampicin through drug-sensitivity testing. On the other hand, pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were sensitive to all first-line antituberculosis drugs and were treated during the same time period served as controls. A total of 150 tuberculosis patients were studied, of which the susceptible cases were 120. Factors found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis are being Indian or Chinese (odds ratio 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.04-9.68; and odds ratio 6.23, 95% confidence interval 2.24-17.35, respectively), unmarried (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.09-6.09), living in suburban areas (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.08-6.19), are noncompliant (odds ratio 4.50, 95% confidence interval 1.71-11.82), were treated previously (odds ratio 8.91, 95% confidence interval 3.66-21.67), and showed positive sputum smears at the 2nd (odds ratio 7.00, 95% confidence interval 2.46-19.89) and 6th months of treatment (odds ratio 17.96, 95% confidence interval 3.51-91.99). Living in suburban areas, positive sputum smears in the 2nd month of treatment, and was treated previously are factors that independently contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Those with positive smears in the second month of treatment, have a history of previous treatment, and live in suburban areas are found to have a higher probability of becoming multidrug resistant. The results presented here may facilitate improvements in the screening and detection process of drug-resistant patients in Malaysia in the future. Copyright © 2015 Asian-African Society for Mycobacteriology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A statistical approach to identify, monitor, and manage incomplete curated data sets.

PubMed

Howe, Douglas G

2018-04-02

Many biological knowledge bases gather data through expert curation of published literature. High data volume, selective partial curation, delays in access, and publication of data prior to the ability to curate it can result in incomplete curation of published data. Knowing which data sets are incomplete and how incomplete they are remains a challenge. Awareness that a data set may be incomplete is important for proper interpretation, to avoiding flawed hypothesis generation, and can justify further exploration of published literature for additional relevant data. Computational methods to assess data set completeness are needed. One such method is presented here. In this work, a multivariate linear regression model was used to identify genes in the Zebrafish Information Network (ZFIN) Database having incomplete curated gene expression data sets. Starting with 36,655 gene records from ZFIN, data aggregation, cleansing, and filtering reduced the set to 9870 gene records suitable for training and testing the model to predict the number of expression experiments per gene. Feature engineering and selection identified the following predictive variables: the number of journal publications; the number of journal publications already attributed for gene expression annotation; the percent of journal publications already attributed for expression data; the gene symbol; and the number of transgenic constructs associated with each gene. Twenty-five percent of the gene records (2483 genes) were used to train the model. The remaining 7387 genes were used to test the model. One hundred and twenty-two and 165 of the 7387 tested genes were identified as missing expression annotations based on their residuals being outside the model lower or upper 95% confidence interval respectively. The model had precision of 0.97 and recall of 0.71 at the negative 95% confidence interval and precision of 0.76 and recall of 0.73 at the positive 95% confidence interval. This method can be used to identify data sets that are incompletely curated, as demonstrated using the gene expression data set from ZFIN. This information can help both database resources and data consumers gauge when it may be useful to look further for published data to augment the existing expertly curated information.

Supervision and computerized neurocognitive baseline test performance in high school athletes: an initial investigation.

PubMed

Kuhn, Andrew Warren; Solomon, Gary S

2014-01-01

Computerized neuropsychological testing batteries have provided a time-efficient and cost-efficient way to assess and manage the neurocognitive aspects of patients with sport-related concussion. These tests are straightforward and mostly self-guided, reducing the degree of clinician involvement required by traditional clinical neuropsychological paper-and-pencil tests. To determine if self-reported supervision status affected computerized neurocognitive baseline test performance in high school athletes. Retrospective cohort study. Supervised testing took place in high school computer libraries or sports medicine clinics. Unsupervised testing took place at the participant's home or another location with computer access. From 2007 to 2012, high school athletes across middle Tennessee (n = 3771) completed computerized neurocognitive baseline testing (Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing [ImPACT]). They reported taking the test either supervised by a sports medicine professional or unsupervised. These athletes (n = 2140) were subjected to inclusion and exclusion criteria and then matched based on age, sex, and number of prior concussions. We extracted demographic and performance-based data from each de-identified baseline testing record. Paired t tests were performed between the self-reported supervised and unsupervised groups, comparing the following ImPACT baseline composite scores: verbal memory, visual memory, visual motor (processing) speed, reaction time, impulse control, and total symptom score. For differences that reached P < .05, the Cohen d was calculated to measure the effect size. Lastly, a χ(2) analysis was conducted to compare the rate of invalid baseline testing between the groups. All statistical tests were performed at the 95% confidence interval level. Self-reported supervised athletes demonstrated better visual motor (processing) speed (P = .004; 95% confidence interval [0.28, 1.52]; d = 0.12) and faster reaction time (P < .001; 95% confidence interval [-0.026, -0.014]; d = 0.21) composite scores than self-reported unsupervised athletes. Speed-based tasks were most affected by self-reported supervision status, although the effect sizes were relatively small. These data lend credence to the hypothesis that supervision status may be a factor in the evaluation of ImPACT baseline test scores.

Birth defects in relation to Bendectin use in pregnancy. II. Pyloric stenosis.

PubMed

Mitchell, A A; Schwingl, P J; Rosenberg, L; Louik, C; Shapiro, S

1983-12-01

To test the hypothesis that the use of Bendectin in pregnancy increases the risk of pyloric stenosis, we determined rates of antenatal Bendectin exposure among 325 infants with pyloric stenosis and among two control groups comprising infants with other defects; one consisted of 3,153 infants with other conditions, and the other, a subset of that group, consisted of 724 infants with defects that may have had their origins at any time in pregnancy. Comparisons between the cases and the two control series yielded estimated relative risks of 0.9 (95% confidence interval, 0.6 to 1.2) and 1.0 (0.7 to 1.4), respectively. The findings from this large case-control study suggest that Bendectin does not increase the risk of pyloric stenosis.

Repeated significance tests of linear combinations of sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic biomarker

PubMed Central

Wu, Mixia; Shu, Yu; Li, Zhaohai; Liu, Aiyi

2016-01-01

A sequential design is proposed to test whether the accuracy of a binary diagnostic biomarker meets the minimal level of acceptance. The accuracy of a binary diagnostic biomarker is a linear combination of the marker’s sensitivity and specificity. The objective of the sequential method is to minimize the maximum expected sample size under the null hypothesis that the marker’s accuracy is below the minimal level of acceptance. The exact results of two-stage designs based on Youden’s index and efficiency indicate that the maximum expected sample sizes are smaller than the sample sizes of the fixed designs. Exact methods are also developed for estimation, confidence interval and p-value concerning the proposed accuracy index upon termination of the sequential testing. PMID:26947768

On the analysis of studies of choice

PubMed Central

Mullins, Eamonn; Agunwamba, Christian C.; Donohoe, Anthony J.

1982-01-01

In a review of 103 sets of data from 23 different studies of choice, Baum (1979) concluded that whereas undermatching was most commonly observed for responses, the time measure generally conformed to the matching relation. A reexamination of the evidence presented by Baum concludes that undermatching is the most commonly observed finding for both measures. Use of the coefficient of determination by both Baum (1979) and de Villiers (1977) for assessing when matching occurs is criticized on statistical grounds. An alternative to the loss-in-predictability criterion used by Baum (1979) is proposed. This alternative statistic has a simple operational meaning and is related to the usual F-ratio test. It can therefore be used as a formal test of the hypothesis that matching occurs. Baum (1979) also suggests that slope values of between .90 and 1.11 can be considered good approximations to matching. It is argued that the establishment of a fixed interval as a criterion for determining when matching occurs, is inappropriate. A confidence interval based on the data from any given experiment is suggested as a more useful method of assessment. PMID:16812271

Etiological classifications of transient ischemic attacks: subtype classification by TOAST, CCS and ASCO--a pilot study.

PubMed

Amort, Margareth; Fluri, Felix; Weisskopf, Florian; Gensicke, Henrik; Bonati, Leo H; Lyrer, Philippe A; Engelter, Stefan T

2012-01-01

In patients with transient ischemic attacks (TIA), etiological classification systems are not well studied. The Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST), the Causative Classification System (CCS), and the Atherosclerosis Small Vessel Disease Cardiac Source Other Cause (ASCO) classification may be useful to determine the underlying etiology. We aimed at testing the feasibility of each of the 3 systems. Furthermore, we studied and compared their prognostic usefulness. In a single-center TIA registry prospectively ascertained over 2 years, we applied 3 etiological classification systems. We compared the distribution of underlying etiologies, the rates of patients with determined versus undetermined etiology, and studied whether etiological subtyping distinguished TIA patients with versus without subsequent stroke or TIA within 3 months. The 3 systems were applicable in all 248 patients. A determined etiology with the highest level of causality was assigned similarly often with TOAST (35.9%), CCS (34.3%), and ASCO (38.7%). However, the frequency of undetermined causes differed significantly between the classification systems and was lowest for ASCO (TOAST: 46.4%; CCS: 37.5%; ASCO: 18.5%; p < 0.001). In TOAST, CCS, and ASCO, cardioembolism (19.4/14.5/18.5%) was the most common etiology, followed by atherosclerosis (11.7/12.9/14.5%). At 3 months, 33 patients (13.3%, 95% confidence interval 9.3-18.2%) had recurrent cerebral ischemic events. These were strokes in 13 patients (5.2%; 95% confidence interval 2.8-8.8%) and TIAs in 20 patients (8.1%, 95% confidence interval 5.0-12.2%). Patients with a determined etiology (high level of causality) had higher rates of subsequent strokes than those without a determined etiology [TOAST: 6.7% (95% confidence interval 2.5-14.1%) vs. 4.4% (95% confidence interval 1.8-8.9%); CSS: 9.3% (95% confidence interval 4.1-17.5%) vs. 3.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0-7.1%); ASCO: 9.4% (95% confidence interval 4.4-17.1%) vs. 2.6% (95% confidence interval 0.7-6.6%)]. However, this difference was only significant in the ASCO classification (p = 0.036). Using ASCO, there was neither an increase in risk of subsequent stroke among patients with incomplete diagnostic workup (at least one subtype scored 9) compared with patients with adequate workup (no subtype scored 9), nor among patients with multiple causes compared with patients with a single cause. In TIA patients, all etiological classification systems provided a similar distribution of underlying etiologies. The increase in stroke risk in TIA patients with determined versus undetermined etiology was most evident using the ASCO classification. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

1993-06-01

This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

Treesearch

Steve Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

2007-01-01

For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations.

Fasting glucose levels, incident diabetes, subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in apparently healthy adults: A 12-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Sitnik, Debora; Santos, Itamar S; Goulart, Alessandra C; Staniak, Henrique L; Manson, JoAnn E; Lotufo, Paulo A; Bensenor, Isabela M

2016-11-01

We aimed to study the association between fasting plasma glucose, diabetes incidence and cardiovascular burden after 10-12 years. We evaluated diabetes and cardiovascular events incidences, carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium scores in ELSA-Brasil (the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health) baseline (2008-2010) of 1536 adults without diabetes in 1998. We used regression models to estimate association with carotid intima-media thickness (in mm), coronary artery calcium scores (in Agatston points) and cardiovascular events according to fasting plasma glucose in 1998. Adjusted diabetes incidence rate was 9.8/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval: 7.7-13.6/1000 person-years). Incident diabetes was positively associated with higher fasting plasma glucose. Fasting plasma glucose levels 110-125 mg/dL were associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.028; 95% confidence interval: 0.003-0.053). Excluding those with incident diabetes, there was a borderline association between higher carotid intima-media thickness and fasting plasma glucose 110-125 mg/dL (β = 0.030; 95% confidence interval: -0.005 to 0.065). Incident diabetes was associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.034; 95% confidence interval: 0.015-0.053), coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 (odds ratio = 2.84; 95% confidence interval: 1.17-6.91) and the combined outcome of a coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 or incident cardiovascular event (odds ratio = 3.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-7.65). In conclusion, fasting plasma glucose in 1998 and incident diabetes were associated with higher cardiovascular burden. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of infections among residents of Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Choy, C Sm; Chen, H; Yau, C Sw; Hsu, E K; Chik, N Y; Wong, A Ty

2016-08-01

A point prevalence study was conducted to study the epidemiology of common infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong and their associated factors. Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong were selected by stratified single-stage cluster random sampling. All residents aged 65 years or above from the recruited homes were surveyed. Infections were identified using standardised definitions. Demographic and health information-including medical history, immunisation record, antibiotic use, and activities of daily living (as measured by Barthel Index)-was collected by a survey team to determine any associated factors. Data were collected from 3857 residents in 46 Residential Care Homes for the Elderly from February to May 2014. A total of 105 residents had at least one type of infection based on the survey definition. The overall prevalence of all infections was 2.7% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-3.4%). The three most common infections were of the respiratory tract (1.3%; 95% confidence interval, 0.9%-1.9%), skin and soft tissue (0.7%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5%-1.0%), and urinary tract (0.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-0.9%). Total dependence in activities of daily living, as indicated by low Barthel Index score of 0 to 20 (odds ratio=3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.2), and presence of a wound or stoma (odds ratio=2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.9) were significantly associated with presence of infection. This survey provides information about infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in the territory. Local data enable us to understand the burden of infections and formulate targeted measures for prevention.

Influence of Objective Three-Dimensional Measures and Movement Images on Surgeon Treatment Planning for Lip Revision Surgery

PubMed Central

Trotman, Carroll-Ann; Phillips, Ceib; Faraway, Julian J.; Hartman, Terry; van Aalst, John A.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine whether a systematic evaluation of facial soft tissues of patients with cleft lip and palate, using facial video images and objective three-dimensional measurements of movement, change surgeons’ treatment plans for lip revision surgery. Design Prospective longitudinal study. Setting The University of North Carolina School of Dentistry. Patients, Participants A group of patients with repaired cleft lip and palate (n = 21), a noncleft control group (n = 37), and surgeons experienced in cleft care. Interventions Lip revision. Main Outcome Measures (1) facial photographic images; (2) facial video images during animations; (3) objective three-dimensional measurements of upper lip movement based on z scores; and (4) objective dynamic and visual three-dimensional measurement of facial soft tissue movement. Results With the use of the video images plus objective three-dimensional measures, changes were made to the problem list of the surgical treatment plan for 86% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.97) and the surgical goals for 71% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.48 to 0.89). The surgeon group varied in the percentage of patients for whom the problem list was modified, ranging from 24% (95% confidence interval, 8% to 47%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients, and the percentage for whom the surgical goals were modified, ranging from 14% (94% confidence interval, 3% to 36%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients. Conclusions For all surgeons, the additional assessment components of the systematic valuation resulted in a change in clinical decision making for some patients. PMID:23855676

Lower hospital mortality and complications after pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Bratton, Susan L; Van Duker, Heather; Statler, Kimberly D; Pulsipher, Michael A; McArthur, Jennifer; Keenan, Heather T

2008-03-01

To assess protective and risk factors for mortality among pediatric patients during initial care after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and to evaluate changes in hospital mortality. Retrospective cohort using the 1997, 2000, and 2003 Kids Inpatient Database, a probabilistic sample of children hospitalized in the United States with a procedure code for HSCT. Hospitalized patients in the United States submitted to the database. Age, <19 yrs. None. Hospital mortality significantly decreased from 12% in 1997 to 6% in 2003. Source of stem cells changed with increased use of cord blood. Rates of sepsis, graft versus host disease, and mechanical ventilation significantly decreased. Compared with autologous HSCT, patients who received an allogenic HSCT without T-cell depletion were more likely to die (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.5, 3.9), while children who received cord blood HSCT were at the greatest risk of hospital death (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.6, 9.1). Mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio, 26.32; 95% confidence interval, 16.3-42.2), dialysis (adjusted odds ratio, 12.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.7-35.4), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-6.1) were all independently associated with death, while care in 2003 was associated with decreased risk (adjusted odds ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.7) of death. Hospital mortality after HSCT in children decreased over time as did complications including need for mechanical ventilation, graft versus host disease, and sepsis. Prevention of complications is essential as the need for invasive support continues to be associated with high mortality risk.

High prevalence of refractive errors in a rural population: 'Nooravaran Salamat' Mobile Eye Clinic experience.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Rezvan, Farhad; Ostadimoghaddam, Hadi; Abdollahi, Majid; Hashemi, Maryam; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi

2013-01-01

The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia and determinants were determined in a rural population of Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Using random cluster sampling, 13 of the 83 villages of Khaf County in the north east of Iran were selected. Data from 2001 people over the age of 15 years were analysed. Visual acuity measurement, non-cycloplegic refraction and eye examinations were done at the Mobile Eye Clinic. The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia based on spherical equivalent worse than -0.5 dioptre and +0.5 dioptre, respectively. The prevalence of myopia, hyperopia and anisometropia in the total study sample was 28% (95% confidence interval: 25.9-30.2), 19.2% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-21.1), and 11.5% (95% confidence interval: 10.0-13.1), respectively. In the over 40 population, the prevalence of myopia and hyperopia was 32.5% (95% confidence interval: 28.9-36.1) and 27.9% (95% confidence interval: 24.5-31.3), respectively. In the multiple regression model for this group, myopia strongly correlated with cataract (odds ratio = 1.98 and 95% confidence interval: 1.33-2.93), and hyperopia only correlated with age (P < 0.001). The prevalence of high myopia and high hyperopia was 1.5% and 4.6%. In the multiple regression model, anisometropia significantly correlated with age (odds ratio = 1.04) and cataract (odds ratio = 5.2) (P < 0.001). The prevalence of myopia and anisometropia was higher than that in previous studies in urban population of Iran, especially in the elderly. Cataract was the only variable that correlated with myopia and anisometropia. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The Association Between Maternal Age and Cerebral Palsy Risk Factors.

PubMed

Schneider, Rilla E; Ng, Pamela; Zhang, Xun; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael I; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-05-01

Advanced maternal age is associated with higher frequencies of antenatal and perinatal conditions, as well as a higher risk of cerebral palsy in offspring. We explore the association between maternal age and specific cerebral palsy risk factors. Data were extracted from the Canadian Cerebral Palsy Registry. Maternal age was categorized as ≥35 years of age and less than 20 years of age at the time of birth. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to calculate odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. The final sample consisted of 1391 children with cerebral palsy, with 19% of children having mothers aged 35 or older and 4% of children having mothers below the age of 20. Univariate analyses showed that mothers aged 35 or older were more likely to have gestational diabetes (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.8), to have a history of miscarriage (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.4), to have undergone fertility treatments (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.9), and to have delivered by Caesarean section (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 2.2). These findings were supported by multivariate analyses. Children with mothers below the age of 20 were more likely to have a congenital malformation (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.2), which is also supported by multivariate analysis. The risk factor profiles of children with cerebral palsy vary by maternal age. Future studies are warranted to further our understanding of the compound causal pathways leading to cerebral palsy and the observed greater prevalence of cerebral palsy with increasing maternal age. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Priorities for treatment, care and information if faced with serious illness: a comparative population-based survey in seven European countries.

PubMed

Higginson, Irene J; Gomes, Barbara; Calanzani, Natalia; Gao, Wei; Bausewein, Claudia; Daveson, Barbara A; Deliens, Luc; Ferreira, Pedro L; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Simon, Steffen T; Cohen, Joachim; Harding, Richard

2014-02-01

Health-care costs are growing, with little population-based data about people's priorities for end-of-life care, to guide service development and aid discussions. We examined variations in people's priorities for treatment, care and information across seven European countries. Telephone survey of a random sample of households; we asked respondents their priorities if 'faced with a serious illness, like cancer, with limited time to live' and used multivariable logistic regressions to identify associated factors. Members of the general public aged ≥ 16 years residing in England, Flanders, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In total, 9344 individuals were interviewed. Most people chose 'improve quality of life for the time they had left', ranging from 57% (95% confidence interval: 55%-60%, Italy) to 81% (95% confidence interval: 79%-83%, Spain). Only 2% (95% confidence interval: 1%-3%, England) to 6% (95% confidence interval: 4%-7%, Flanders) said extending life was most important, and 15% (95% confidence interval: 13%-17%, Spain) to 40% (95% confidence interval: 37%-43%, Italy) said quality and extension were equally important. Prioritising quality of life was associated with higher education in all countries (odds ratio = 1.3 (Flanders) to 7.9 (Italy)), experience of caregiving or bereavement (England, Germany, Portugal), prioritising pain/symptom control over having a positive attitude and preferring death in a hospice/palliative care unit. Those prioritising extending life had the highest home death preference of all groups. Health status did not affect priorities. Across all countries, extending life was prioritised by a minority, regardless of health status. Treatment and care needs to be reoriented with patient education and palliative care becoming mainstream for serious conditions such as cancer.

Air pollution attributable postneonatal infant mortality in U.S. metropolitan areas: a risk assessment study

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Reinhard; Romieu, Isabelle; Medina, Sylvia; Schwartz, Joel; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino

2004-01-01

Background The impact of outdoor air pollution on infant mortality has not been quantified. Methods Based on exposure-response functions from a U.S. cohort study, we assessed the attributable risk of postneonatal infant mortality in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas related to particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10) as a surrogate of total air pollution. Results The estimated proportion of all cause mortality, sudden infant death syndrome (normal birth weight infants only) and respiratory disease mortality (normal birth weight) attributable to PM10 above a chosen reference value of 12.0 μg/m3 PM10 was 6% (95% confidence interval 3–11%), 16% (95% confidence interval 9–23%) and 24% (95% confidence interval 7–44%), respectively. The expected number of infant deaths per year in the selected areas was 106 (95% confidence interval 53–185), 79 (95% confidence interval 46–111) and 15 (95% confidence interval 5–27), respectively. Approximately 75% of cases were from areas where the current levels are at or below the new U.S. PM2.5 standard of 15 μg/m3 (equivalent to 25 μg/m3 PM10). In a country where infant mortality rates and air pollution levels are relatively low, ambient air pollution as measured by particulate matter contributes to a substantial fraction of infant death, especially for those due to sudden infant death syndrome and respiratory disease. Even if all counties would comply to the new PM2.5 standard, the majority of the estimated burden would remain. Conclusion Given the inherent limitations of risk assessments, further studies are needed to support and quantify the relationship between infant mortality and air pollution. PMID:15128459

Association of High-Dose Ibuprofen Use, Lung Function Decline, and Long-Term Survival in Children with Cystic Fibrosis.

PubMed

Konstan, Michael W; VanDevanter, Donald R; Sawicki, Gregory S; Pasta, David J; Foreman, Aimee J; Neiman, Evgueni A; Morgan, Wayne J

2018-04-01

Cystic fibrosis deaths result primarily from lung function loss, so chronic respiratory therapies, intended to preserve lung function, are cornerstones of cystic fibrosis care. Although treatment-associated reduction in rate of lung function loss should ultimately improve cystic fibrosis survival, no such relationship has been described for any chronic cystic fibrosis therapy. In part, this is because the ages of most rapid lung function decline-early adolescence-precede the median age of cystic fibrosis deaths by more than a decade. To study associations of high-dose ibuprofen treatment with the rate of forced expiratory volume in 1 second decline and mortality among children followed in the Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis and subsequently in the U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry. We performed a matched cohort study using data from Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis. Exposure was defined as high-dose ibuprofen use reported at ≥80% of encounters over 2 years. Unexposed children were matched to exposed children 5:1 using propensity scores on the basis of demographic, clinical, and treatment covariates. The rate of decline of percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second during the 2-year follow-up period was estimated by mixed-effects modeling with random slopes and intercepts. Survival over 16 follow-up years in the U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry was compared between treatment groups by using proportional hazards modeling controlling for matching and covariates. We included 775 high-dose ibuprofen users and 3,665 nonusers who were well matched on demographic, clinical, and treatment variables. High-dose ibuprofen users declined on average 1.10 percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second/yr (95% confidence interval; 0.51, 1.69) during the 2-year treatment period, whereas nonusers declined at a rate of 1.76% percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second/yr (95% confidence interval; 1.48, 2.04) during the corresponding 2-year period, a 37.5% slower decline among users compared with nonusers (95% confidence interval; 0.4%, 71.3%; P = 0.046). The users had better subsequent survival (P < 0.001): the unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios for mortality (high-dose ibuprofen/non-high-dose ibuprofen) (95% confidence interval) were 0.75 (0.64, 0.87) and 0.82 (0.69, 0.96). In a propensity-score matched cohort study of children with cystic fibrosis, we observed an association between high-dose ibuprofen use and both slower lung function decline and improved long-term survival. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that treatment-associated reduction of lung function decline in children with cystic fibrosis leads to improved survival.

Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

2012-01-01

Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

Teach a Confidence Interval for the Median in the First Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howington, Eric B.

2017-01-01

Few introductory statistics courses consider statistical inference for the median. This article argues in favour of adding a confidence interval for the median to the first statistics course. Several methods suitable for introductory statistics students are identified and briefly reviewed.

Victim Responses to Violence: The Effect of Alcohol Context on Crime Labeling.

PubMed

Brennan, Iain

2016-03-01

The labeling of an incident as a crime is an essential precursor to the use of criminal law, but the contextual factors that influence this decision are unknown. One such context that is a frequent setting for violence is the barroom. This study explored how the setting of a violent incident is related to the decision by victims to label it as a crime. It tested the hypothesis that violent incidents that took place in or around a licensed premises were less likely to be regarded as crimes than violence in other settings. The hypothesis was tested using a pooled sample of respondents from successive waves of the British Crime Survey (2002/2003-2010/2011). Logistic regression models controlled for demographic factors, victim behavioral characteristics, and incident-specific factors including the seriousness of the violence. Respondents who were in or around a licensed premises at the time of victimization were less likely to regard that violence as a crime (adjusted odds ratio = 0.48, 95% confidence intervals [CIs] = [0.34, 0.67]) than respondents who were victimized in other locations. Despite a disproportionate amount of violence taking place in barrooms, it appears that the criminal nature of violence in these spaces is discounted by victims. The findings emphasize how context affects victim interpretations of crime and suggest a victim-centered reconceptualization of the "moral holiday" hypothesis of alcohol settings. © The Author(s) 2015.

Cheap Talk and Credibility: The Consequences of Confidence and Accuracy on Advisor Credibility and Persuasiveness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sah, Sunita; Moore, Don A.; MacCoun, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Is it possible to increase one's influence simply by behaving more confidently? Prior research presents two competing hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the…

Increased calcium supplementation is associated with morbidity and mortality in the infant postoperative cardiac patient.

PubMed

Dyke, Peter C; Yates, Andrew R; Cua, Clifford L; Hoffman, Timothy M; Hayes, John; Feltes, Timothy F; Springer, Michelle A; Taeed, Roozbeh

2007-05-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the association of calcium replacement therapy with morbidity and mortality in infants after cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass. Retrospective chart review. The cardiac intensive care unit at a tertiary care children's hospital. Infants undergoing cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass between October 2002 and August 2004. None. Total calcium replacement (mg/kg calcium chloride given) for the first 72 postoperative hours was measured. Morbidity and mortality data were collected. The total volume of blood products given during the first 72 hrs was recorded. Infants with confirmed chromosomal deletions at the 22q11 locus were noted. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were used to generate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, with p < .05 being significant. One hundred seventy-one infants met inclusion criteria. Age was 4 +/- 3 months and weight was 4.9 +/- 1.7 kg at surgery. Six infants had deletions of chromosome 22q11. Infants who weighed less required more calcium replacement (r = -.28, p < .001). Greater calcium replacement correlated with a longer intensive care unit length of stay (r = .27, p < .001) and a longer total hospital length of stay (r = .23, p = .002). Greater calcium replacement was significantly associated with morbidity (liver dysfunction [odds ratio, 3.9; confidence interval, 2.1-7.3; p < .001], central nervous system complication [odds ratio, 1.8; confidence interval, 1.1-3.0; p = .02], infection [odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 1.0-2.2; p < .04], extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [odds ratio, 5.0; confidence interval, 2.3-10.6; p < .001]) and mortality (odds ratio, 5.8; confidence interval, 5.8-5.9; p < .001). Greater calcium replacement was not associated with renal insufficiency (odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 0.9-2.3; p = .07). Infants with >1 sd above the mean of total calcium replacement received on average fewer blood products than the total study population. Greater calcium replacement is associated with increasing morbidity and mortality. Further investigation of the etiology and therapy of hypocalcemia in this population is warranted.

WITHDRAWN: Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G Justus

2009-01-21

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Reliability of clinical findings and magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae.

PubMed

Pihlajamäki, Harri K; Kuikka, Paavo-Ilari; Leppänen, Vesa-Veikko; Kiuru, Martti J; Mattila, Ville M

2010-04-01

This diagnostic study was performed to determine the correlation between anterior knee pain and chondromalacia patellae and to define the reliability of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae. Fifty-six young adults (median age, 19.5 years) with anterior knee pain had magnetic resonance imaging of the knee followed by arthroscopy. The patellar chondral lesions identified by magnetic resonance imaging were compared with the arthroscopic findings. Arthroscopy confirmed the presence of chondromalacia patellae in twenty-five (45%) of the fifty-six knees, a synovial plica in twenty-five knees, a meniscal tear in four knees, and a femorotibial chondral lesion in four knees; normal anatomy was seen in six knees. No association was found between the severity of the chondromalacia patellae seen at arthroscopy and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome (p = 0.83). The positive predictive value for the ability of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging to detect chondromalacia patellae was 75% (95% confidence interval, 53% to 89%), the negative predictive value was 72% (95% confidence interval, 56% to 84%), the sensitivity was 60% (95% confidence interval, 41% to 77%), the specificity was 84% (95% confidence interval, 67% to 93%), and the diagnostic accuracy was 73% (95% confidence interval, 60% to 83%). The sensitivity was 13% (95% confidence interval, 2% to 49%) for grade-I lesions and 83% (95% confidence interval, 59% to 94%) for grade-II, III, or IV lesions. Chondromalacia patellae cannot be diagnosed on the basis of symptoms or with current physical examination methods. The present study demonstrated no correlation between the severity of chondromalacia patellae and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome. Thus, symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome should not be used as an indication for knee arthroscopy. The sensitivity of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging was low for grade-I lesions but considerably higher for more severe (grade-II, III, or IV) lesions. Magnetic resonance imaging may be considered an accurate diagnostic tool for identification of more severe cases of chondromalacia patellae.

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis

PubMed Central

Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M.; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long–term prognostic value. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Results Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). Conclusions The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. PMID:27697781

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis.

PubMed

Verde, Eduardo; Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-12-07

Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long-term prognostic value. We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

PubMed Central

Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

Direct Contra Naïve-Indirect Comparison of Clinical Failure Rates between High-Viscosity GIC and Conventional Amalgam Restorations: An Empirical Study

PubMed Central

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2013-01-01

Background Naïve-indirect comparisons are comparisons between competing clinical interventions’ evidence from separate (uncontrolled) trials. Direct comparisons are comparisons within randomised control trials (RCTs). The objective of this empirical study is to test the null-hypothesis that trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparisons and from direct comparisons/RCTs regarding the failure rates of amalgam and direct high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement (HVGIC) restorations in permanent posterior teeth have similar direction and magnitude. Methods A total of 896 citations were identified through systematic literature search. From these, ten and two uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies for HVGIC and amalgam, respectively, were included for naïve-indirect comparison and could be matched with three out twenty RCTs. Summary effects sizes were computed as Odds ratios (OR; 95% Confidence intervals) and compared with those from RCTs. Trend directions were inferred from 95% Confidence interval overlaps and direction of point estimates; magnitudes of performance differences were inferred from the median point estimates (OR) with 25% and 75% percentile range, for both types of comparison. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to test for statistically significant differences between point estimates of both comparison types. Results Trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparison based on evidence from uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies and from direct comparisons based on RCT evidence are not the same. The distributions of the point estimates differed significantly for both comparison types (Mann–Whitney U  =  25, nindirect  =  26; ndirect  =  8; p  =  0.0013, two-tailed). Conclusion The null-hypothesis was rejected. Trends and performance differences inferred from either comparison between HVGIC and amalgam restorations failure rates in permanent posterior teeth are not the same. It is recommended that clinical practice guidance regarding HVGICs should rest on direct comparisons via RCTs and not on naïve-indirect comparisons based on uncontrolled longitudinal studies in order to avoid inflation of effect estimates. PMID:24205220

Recent advances in and limitations of cardiac output monitoring by means of electrical impedance tomography.

PubMed

Pikkemaat, Robert; Lundin, Stefan; Stenqvist, Ola; Hilgers, Ralf-Dieter; Leonhardt, Steffen

2014-07-01

Currently, the monitoring of cardiac output (CO) and stroke volume (SV) is mainly performed using invasive techniques. Therefore, performing CO monitoring noninvasively by means of electrical impedance tomography (EIT) would be advantageous for intensive care. Our hypothesis was that, by means of EIT, it is possible to assess heart rate (HR) and to quantify changes in SV due to changes in ventilator settings. CO (HR and SV) of 14 pigs (32-40 kg body weight) was changed by incremental increases in positive end-expiratory pressure levels (0, 5, 10, 15, and 20 cm·H2O; ramp maneuver). This ramp maneuver was applied 4 times in each animal, yielding 43 evaluable single experiments. At each positive end-expiratory pressure level, SV was assessed by transpulmonary thermodilution using a PiCCO device. EIT data were acquired using a Dräger EIT Evaluation Kit 2. The EIT-based SV-related signal, Z(SV) (in [AU]), showed only a weak correlation (after excluding 2 measurements) with SV(TTD) of r = 0.58 (95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.71). If Z(SV) is calibrated by the reference 1 time for each experiment (defined as SVEIT), the correlation is approximately 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.90). A possible reason for the moderate correlation is the unexpected scaling pattern, leading to amplification of the cardiac impedance signal, found in some animals. The scaling is probably due to the imperfect reconstruction (i.e., a change of sensitivity) of the EIT images or to a change in the position of the heart. The hypothesis that EIT can be used to monitor CO and SV was confirmed, but further studies are required before this technique can be applied in clinical practice. HR was determined robustly and accurately. For SV monitoring, promising results were obtained in 80% of the experiments. However, unexpected scaling of the cardiac EIT signal causing inaccurate estimation of SV remains an issue. Before robust assessment of SV by EIT is suitable for clinical practice, the cause of and compensation for undesired scaling effects need to be investigated.

Direct contra naïve-indirect comparison of clinical failure rates between high-viscosity GIC and conventional amalgam restorations: an empirical study.

PubMed

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2013-01-01

Naïve-indirect comparisons are comparisons between competing clinical interventions' evidence from separate (uncontrolled) trials. Direct comparisons are comparisons within randomised control trials (RCTs). The objective of this empirical study is to test the null-hypothesis that trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparisons and from direct comparisons/RCTs regarding the failure rates of amalgam and direct high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement (HVGIC) restorations in permanent posterior teeth have similar direction and magnitude. A total of 896 citations were identified through systematic literature search. From these, ten and two uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies for HVGIC and amalgam, respectively, were included for naïve-indirect comparison and could be matched with three out twenty RCTs. Summary effects sizes were computed as Odds ratios (OR; 95% Confidence intervals) and compared with those from RCTs. Trend directions were inferred from 95% Confidence interval overlaps and direction of point estimates; magnitudes of performance differences were inferred from the median point estimates (OR) with 25% and 75% percentile range, for both types of comparison. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to test for statistically significant differences between point estimates of both comparison types. Trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparison based on evidence from uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies and from direct comparisons based on RCT evidence are not the same. The distributions of the point estimates differed significantly for both comparison types (Mann-Whitney U  =  25, n(indirect)  =  26; n(direct)  =  8; p  =  0.0013, two-tailed). The null-hypothesis was rejected. Trends and performance differences inferred from either comparison between HVGIC and amalgam restorations failure rates in permanent posterior teeth are not the same. It is recommended that clinical practice guidance regarding HVGICs should rest on direct comparisons via RCTs and not on naïve-indirect comparisons based on uncontrolled longitudinal studies in order to avoid inflation of effect estimates.

Psychosocial and nonclinical factors predicting hospital utilization in patients of a chronic disease management program: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Tran, Mark W; Weiland, Tracey J; Phillips, Georgina A

2015-01-01

Psychosocial factors such as marital status (odds ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-8.69; P = .006) and nonclinical factors such as outpatient nonattendances (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.23; P = .013) and referrals made (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35; P = .003) predict hospital utilization for patients in a chronic disease management program. Along with optimizing patients' clinical condition by prescribed medical guidelines and supporting patient self-management, addressing psychosocial and nonclinical issues are important in attempting to avoid hospital utilization for people with chronic illnesses.

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population…

Persistent opioid use following Cesarean delivery: patterns and predictors among opioid naïve women

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T.; Franklin, Jessica M.; Bykov, Katsiaryna; Avorn, Jerry; Shrank, William H.; Brennan, Troyen A.; Landon, Joan E.; Rathmell, James P.; Huybrechts, Krista F.; Fischer, Michael A.; Choudhry, Niteesh K.

2016-01-01

Background The incidence of opioid-related death in women has increased five-fold over the past decade. For many women, their initial opioid exposure will occur in the setting of routine medical care. Approximately 1 in 3 deliveries in the U.S. is by Cesarean and opioids are commonly prescribed for post-surgical pain management. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the risk that opioid naïve women prescribed opioids after Cesarean delivery will subsequently become consistent prescription opioid users in the year following delivery, and to identify predictors for this behavior. Study Design We identified women in a database of commercial insurance beneficiaries who underwent Cesarean delivery and who were opioid-naïve in the year prior to delivery. To identify persistent users of opioids, we used trajectory models, which group together patients with similar patterns of medication filling during follow-up, based on patterns of opioid dispensing in the year following Cesarean delivery. We then constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for membership in the persistent user group. Results 285 of 80,127 (0.36%, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.40), opioid-naïve women became persistent opioid users (identified using trajectory models based on monthly patterns of opioid dispensing) following Cesarean delivery. Demographics and baseline comorbidity predicted such use with moderate discrimination (c statistic = 0.73). Significant predictors included a history of cocaine abuse (risk 7.41%; adjusted odds ratio 6.11, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 36.31) and other illicit substance abuse (2.36%; adjusted odds ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 6.91), tobacco use (1.45%; adjusted odds ratio 3.04, 95% confidence interval 2.03 to 4.55), back pain (0.69%; adjusted odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.29), migraines (0.91%; adjusted odds ratio 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 2.90), antidepressant use (1.34%; adjusted odds ratio 3.19, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 4.23) and benzodiazepine use (1.99%; adjusted odds ratio 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.64 to 5.26) in the year prior to Cesarean delivery. Conclusions A very small proportion of opioid-naïve women (approximately 1 in 300) become persistent prescription opioid users following Cesarean delivery. Pre-existing psychiatric comorbidity, certain pain conditions, and substance use/abuse conditions identifiable at the time of initial opioid prescribing were predictors of persistent use. PMID:26996986

Emergency department patient satisfaction survey in Imam Reza Hospital, Tabriz, Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Patient satisfaction is an important indicator of the quality of care and service delivery in the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to evaluate patient satisfaction with the Emergency Department of Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz, Iran. Methods This study was carried out for 1 week during all shifts. Trained researchers used the standard Press Ganey questionnaire. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire prior to discharge. The study questionnaire included 30 questions based on a Likert scale. Descriptive and analytical statistics were used throughout data analysis in a number of ways using SPSS version 13. Results Five hundred patients who attended our ED were included in this study. The highest satisfaction rates were observed in the terms of physicians' communication with patients (82.5%), security guards' courtesy (78.3%) and nurses' communication with patients (78%). The average waiting time for the first visit to a physician was 24 min 15 s. The overall satisfaction rate was dependent on the mean waiting time. The mean waiting time for a low rate of satisfaction was 47 min 11 s with a confidence interval of (19.31, 74.51), and for very good level of satisfaction it was 14 min 57 s with a (10.58, 18.57) confidence interval. Approximately 63% of the patients rated their general satisfaction with the emergency setting as good or very good. On the whole, the patient satisfaction rate at the lowest level was 7.7 with a confidence interval of (5.1, 10.4), and at the low level it was 5.8% with a confidence interval of (3.7, 7.9). The rate of satisfaction for the mediocre level was 23.3 with a confidence interval of (19.1, 27.5); for the high level of satisfaction it was 28.3 with a confidence interval of (22.9, 32.8), and for the very high level of satisfaction, this rate was 32.9% with a confidence interval of (28.4, 37.4). Conclusion The study findings indicated the need for evidence-based interventions in emergency care services in areas such as medical care, nursing care, courtesy of staff, physical comfort and waiting time. Efforts should focus on shortening waiting intervals and improving patients' perceptions about waiting in the ED, and also improving the overall cleanliness of the emergency room. PMID:21407998

Inhomogeneity of the density of Parascaris spp. eggs in faeces of individual foals and the use of hypothesis testing for treatment decision making.

PubMed

Wilkes, E J A; Cowling, A; Woodgate, R G; Hughes, K J

2016-10-15

Faecal egg counts (FEC) are used widely for monitoring of parasite infection in animals, treatment decision-making and estimation of anthelmintic efficacy. When a single count or sample mean is used as a point estimate of the expectation of the egg distribution over some time interval, the variability in the egg density is not accounted for. Although variability, including quantifying sources, of egg count data has been described, the spatiotemporal distribution of nematode eggs in faeces is not well understood. We believe that statistical inference about the mean egg count for treatment decision-making has not been used previously. The aim of this study was to examine the density of Parascaris eggs in solution and faeces and to describe the use of hypothesis testing for decision-making. Faeces from two foals with Parascaris burdens were mixed with magnesium sulphate solution and 30 McMaster chambers were examined to determine the egg distribution in a well-mixed solution. To examine the distribution of eggs in faeces from an individual animal, three faecal piles from a foal with a known Parascaris burden were obtained, from which 81 counts were performed. A single faecal sample was also collected daily from 20 foals on three consecutive days and a FEC was performed on three separate portions of each sample. As appropriate, Poisson or negative binomial confidence intervals for the distribution mean were calculated. Parascaris eggs in a well-mixed solution conformed to a homogeneous Poisson process, while the egg density in faeces was not homogeneous, but aggregated. This study provides an extension from homogeneous to inhomogeneous Poisson processes, leading to an understanding of why Poisson and negative binomial distributions correspondingly provide a good fit for egg count data. The application of one-sided hypothesis tests for decision-making is presented. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing Ødegaard's selective migration hypothesis: a longitudinal cohort study of risk factors for non-affective psychotic disorders among prospective emigrants.

PubMed

van der Ven, E; Dalman, C; Wicks, S; Allebeck, P; Magnusson, C; van Os, J; Selten, J P

2015-03-01

The selection hypothesis posits that the increased rates of psychosis observed among migrants are due to selective migration of people who are predisposed to develop the disorder. To test this hypothesis, we examined whether risk factors for psychosis are more prevalent among future emigrants. A cohort of 49,321 Swedish military conscripts was assessed at age 18 years on cannabis use, IQ, psychiatric diagnosis, social adjustment, history of trauma and urbanicity of place of upbringing. Through data linkage we examined whether these exposures predicted emigration out of Sweden. We also calculated the emigrants' hypothetical relative risk compared with non-emigrants for developing a non-affective psychotic disorder. Low IQ [odds ratio (OR) 0.5, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.3-0.9] and 'poor social adjustment' (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.8) were significantly less prevalent among prospective emigrants, whereas a history of urban upbringing (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.4-3.7) was significantly more common. Apart from a non-significant increase in cannabis use among emigrants (OR 1.6, 95% CI 0.8-3.1), there were no major group differences in any other risk factors. Compared to non-emigrants, hypothetical relative risks for developing non-affective psychotic disorder were 0.7 (95% CI 0.4-1.2) and 0.8 (95% CI 0.7-1.0), respectively, for emigrants narrowly and broadly defined. This study adds to an increasing body of evidence opposing the selection hypothesis.

Comparison of WBRT alone, SRS alone, and their combination in the treatment of one or more brain metastases: Review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Muhammad; Lin, Jie; Liao, Guixiang; Li, Rong; Wang, Baiyao; Xie, Guozhu; Zheng, Jieling; Yuan, Yawei

2017-07-01

Whole brain radiotherapy has been a standard treatment of brain metastases. Stereotactic radiosurgery provides more focal and aggressive radiation and normal tissue sparing but worse local and distant control. This meta-analysis was performed to assess and compare the effectiveness of whole brain radiotherapy alone, stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and their combination in the treatment of brain metastases based on randomized controlled trial studies. Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library) were searched to identify randomized controlled trial studies that compared treatment outcome of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiosurgery. This meta-analysis was performed using the Review Manager (RevMan) software (version 5.2) that is provided by the Cochrane Collaboration. The data used were hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated for time-to-event data extracted from survival curves and local tumor control rate curves. Odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for dichotomous data, while mean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for continuous data. Fixed-effects or random-effects models were adopted according to heterogeneity. Five studies (n = 763) were included in this meta-analysis meeting the inclusion criteria. All the included studies were randomized controlled trials. The sample size ranged from 27 to 331. In total 202 (26%) patients with whole brain radiotherapy alone, 196 (26%) patients receiving stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and 365 (48%) patients were in whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery group. No significant survival benefit was observed for any treatment approach; hazard ratio was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.43, p = 0.12) based on three randomized controlled trials for whole brain radiotherapy only compared to whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery and hazard ratio was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.29, p = 0.81) for stereotactic radiosurgery only compared to combined approach. Local control was best achieved when whole brain radiotherapy was combined with stereotactic radiosurgery. Hazard ratio 2.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.36-3.09, p = 0.0006) and hazard ratio 1.84 (95% confidence interval: 1.26-2.70, p = 0.002) were obtained from comparing whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only to whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery, respectively. No difference in adverse events for treatment difference; odds ratio 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-1.76, p = 0.48) and odds ratio 0.92 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-1.42, p = 71) for whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole brain radiotherapy only and whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus stereotactic radiosurgery only, respectively. Adding stereotactic radiosurgery to whole brain radiotherapy provides better local control as compared to whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only with no difference in radiation related toxicities.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes after bariatric surgery; a systematic review and meta-analysis: do the benefits outweigh the risks?

PubMed

Kwong, Wilson; Tomlinson, George; Feig, Denice S

2018-02-15

Obesity during pregnancy is associated with a number of adverse obstetric outcomes that include gestational diabetes mellitus, macrosomia, and preeclampsia. Increasing evidence shows that bariatric surgery may decrease the risk of these outcomes. Our aim was to evaluate the benefits and risks of bariatric surgery in obese women according to obstetric outcomes. We performed a systematic literature search using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, and PubMed from inception up to December 12, 2016. Studies were included if they evaluated patients who underwent bariatric surgery, reported subsequent pregnancy outcomes, and compared these outcomes with a control group. Two reviewers extracted study outcomes independently, and risk of bias was assessed with the use of the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Pooled odds ratios for each outcome were estimated with the Dersimonian and Laird random effects model. After a review of 2616 abstracts, 20 cohort studies and approximately 2.8 million subjects (8364 of whom had bariatric surgery) were included in the metaanalysis. In our primary analysis, patients who underwent bariatric surgery showed reduced rates of gestational diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.37, number needed to benefit, 5), large-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.59; number needed to benefit, 6), gestational hypertension (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.76; number needed to benefit, 11), all hypertensive disorders (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.53; number needed to benefit, 8), postpartum hemorrhage (odds ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-1.37; number needed to benefit, 21), and caesarean delivery rates (odds ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.67; number needed to benefit, 9); however, group of patients showed an increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 21), intrauterine growth restriction (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 66), and preterm deliveries (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.79; number needed to harm, 35) when compared with control subjects who were matched for presurgery body mass index. There were no differences in rates of preeclampsia, neonatal intensive care unit admissions, stillbirths, malformations, and neonatal death. Malabsorptive surgeries resulted in a greater increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (P=.0466) and a greater decrease in large-for-gestational-age infants (P=<.0001) compared with restrictive surgeries. There were no differences in outcomes when we used administrative databases vs clinical charts. Although bariatric surgery is associated with a reduction in the risk of several adverse obstetric outcomes, there is a potential for an increased risk of other important outcomes that should be considered when bariatric surgery is discussed with reproductive-age women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Teaching alternatives to the standard inferior alveolar nerve block in dental education: outcomes in clinical practice.

PubMed

Johnson, Thomas M; Badovinac, Rachel; Shaefer, Jeffry

2007-09-01

Surveys were sent to Harvard School of Dental Medicine students and graduates from the classes of 2000 through 2006 to determine their current primary means of achieving mandibular anesthesia. Orthodontists and orthodontic residents were excluded. All subjects received clinical training in the conventional inferior alveolar nerve block and two alternative techniques (the Akinosi mandibular block and the Gow-Gates mandibular block) during their predoctoral dental education. This study tests the hypothesis that students and graduates who received training in the conventional inferior alveolar nerve block, the Akinosi mandibular block, and the Gow-Gates mandibular block will report more frequent current utilization of alternatives to the conventional inferior alveolar nerve block than clinicians trained in the conventional technique only. At the 95 percent confidence level, we estimated that between 3.7 percent and 16.1 percent (mean=8.5 percent) of clinicians trained in using the Gow-Gates technique use this injection technique primarily, and between 35.4 percent and 56.3 percent (mean=47.5 percent) of those trained in the Gow-Gates method never use this technique. At the same confidence level, between 0.0 percent and 3.8 percent (mean=0.0 percent) of clinicians trained in using the Akinosi technique use this injection clinical technique primarily, and between 62.2 percent and 81.1 percent (mean=72.3 percent) of those trained in the Akinosi method never use this technique. No control group that was completely untrained in the Gow-Gates or Akinosi techniques was available for comparison. However, we presume that zero percent of clinicians who have not been trained in a given technique will use the technique in clinical practice. The confidence interval for the Gow-Gates method excludes this value, while the confidence interval for the Akinosi technique includes zero percent. We conclude that, in the study population, formal clinical training in the Gow-Gates and Akinosi injection techniques lead to a small but significant increase in current primary utilization of the Gow-Gates technique. No significant increase in current primary utilization of the Akinosi technique was found.

Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

2013-01-01

The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2006-01-01

Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

The microcomputer scientific software series 2: general linear model--regression.

Treesearch

Harold M. Rauscher

1983-01-01

The general linear model regression (GLMR) program provides the microcomputer user with a sophisticated regression analysis capability. The output provides a regression ANOVA table, estimators of the regression model coefficients, their confidence intervals, confidence intervals around the predicted Y-values, residuals for plotting, a check for multicollinearity, a...

Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zou, Guang Yong

2007-01-01

Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and quality of life.

PubMed

Jelovsek, J Eric; Barber, Matthew D

2006-05-01

Women who seek treatment for pelvic organ prolapse strive for an improvement in quality of life. Body image has been shown to be an important component of differences in quality of life. To date, there are no data on body image in patients with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Our objective was to compare body image and quality of life in women with advanced pelvic organ prolapse with normal controls. We used a case-control study design. Cases were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary urogynecology clinic with advanced pelvic organ prolapse (stage 3 or 4). Controls were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary care gynecology or women's health clinic for an annual visit with normal pelvic floor support (stage 0 or 1) and without urinary incontinence. All patients completed a valid and reliable body image scale and a generalized (Short Form Health Survey) and condition-specific (Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20) quality-of-life scale. Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to adjust for possible confounding variables. Forty-seven case and 51 control subjects were enrolled. After controlling for age, race, parity, previous hysterectomy, and medical comorbidities, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse were more likely to feel self-conscious (adjusted odds ratio 4.7; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 18, P = .02), less likely to feel physically attractive (adjusted odds ratio 11; 95% confidence interval 2.9 to 51, P < .001), less likely to feel feminine (adjusted odds ratio 4.0; 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 15, P = .03), and less likely to feel sexually attractive (adjusted odds ratio 4.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 17, P = .02) than normal controls. The groups were similar in their feeling of dissatisfaction with appearance when dressed, difficulty looking at themselves naked, avoiding people because of appearance, and overall dissatisfaction with their body. Subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse suffered significantly lower quality of life on the physical scale of the SF-12 (mean 42; 95% confidence interval 39 to 45 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 53, P < .009). However, no differences between groups were noted on the mental scale of the SF-12 (mean 51; 95% confidence interval 50 to 54 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 52, P = .56). Additionally, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse scored significantly worse on the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 than normal controls (mean summary score 104; 95% confidence interval 90 to 118 versus mean 29; 95% confidence interval 16 to 43, P < .0001), indicating a decrease in condition-specific quality of life. Worsening body image correlated with lower quality of life on both the physical and mental scales of the SF-12 as well as the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 in subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and overall quality of life. Body image may be a key determinant for quality of life in patients with advanced prolapse and may be an important outcome measure for treatment evaluation in clinical trials.

Exercise during pregnancy in normal-weight women and risk of preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Di Mascio, Daniele; Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Marhefka, Gregary D; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-11-01

Preterm birth is the major cause of perinatal mortality in the United States. In the past, pregnant women have been recommended to not exercise because of presumed risks of preterm birth. Physical activity has been theoretically related to preterm birth because it increases the release of catecholamines, especially norepinephrine, which might stimulate myometrial activity. Conversely, exercise may reduce the risk of preterm birth by other mechanisms such as decreased oxidative stress or improved placenta vascularization. Therefore, the safety of exercise regarding preterm birth and its effects on gestational age at delivery remain controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of exercise during pregnancy on the risk of preterm birth. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Sciences, Scopus, ClinicalTrial.gov, OVID, and Cochrane Library were searched from the inception of each database to April 2016. Selection criteria included only randomized clinical trials of pregnant women randomized before 23 weeks to an aerobic exercise regimen or not. Types of participants included women of normal weight with uncomplicated, singleton pregnancies without any obstetric contraindication to physical activity. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean difference with 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcome was the incidence of preterm birth <37 weeks. Of the 2059 women included in the meta-analysis, 1022 (49.6%) were randomized to the exercise group and 1037 (50.4%) to the control group. Aerobic exercise lasted about 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week. Women who were randomized to aerobic exercise had a similar incidence of preterm birth of <37 weeks (4.5% vs 4.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.50) and a similar mean gestational age at delivery (mean difference, 0.05 week, 95% confidence interval, -0.07 to 0.17) compared with controls. Women in the exercise group had a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery (73.6% vs 67.5%; relative risk, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.15) and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (17.9% vs 22%; relative risk, 0.82, 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.97) compared with controls. The incidence of operative vaginal delivery (12.9% vs 16.5%; relative risk, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.01) was similar in both groups. Women in the exercise group had a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (2.9% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.51, 95% confidence interval, 0.31-0.82) and a significantly lower incidence of hypertensive disorders (1.0% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.21, 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.45) compared with controls. No differences in low birthweight (5.2% vs 4.7%; relative risk, 1.11, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.73) and mean birthweight (mean difference, -10.46 g, 95% confidence interval, -47.10 to 26.21) between the exercise group and controls were found. Aerobic exercise for 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week during pregnancy can be safely performed by normal-weight women with singleton, uncomplicated gestations because this is not associated with an increased risk of preterm birth or with a reduction in mean gestational age at delivery. Exercise was associated with a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery, with a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders and therefore should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

2007-01-01

For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations. To develop these confidence bounds and test, we first establish that estimators based on Newton steps from n-...

A simple method for assessing occupational exposure via the one-way random effects model.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Mathew, Thomas; Peng, Jie

2016-11-01

A one-way random effects model is postulated for the log-transformed shift-long personal exposure measurements, where the random effect in the model represents an effect due to the worker. Simple closed-form confidence intervals are proposed for the relevant parameters of interest using the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER). The performance of the confidence bounds is evaluated and compared with those based on the generalized confidence interval approach. Comparison studies indicate that the proposed MOVER confidence bounds are better than the generalized confidence bounds for the overall mean exposure and an upper percentile of the exposure distribution. The proposed methods are illustrated using a few examples involving industrial hygiene data.

Occupational Lifting Tasks and Retinal Detachment in Non-Myopics and Myopics: Extended Analysis of a Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Mattioli, Stefano; Curti, Stefania; De Fazio, Rocco; Mt Cooke, Robin; Zanardi, Francesca; Bonfiglioli, Roberta; Violante, Francesco S

2012-01-01

Objectives Lifting heavy weights involves the Valsalva manoeuvre, which leads to intraocular pressure spikes. We used data from a case-control study to further investigate the hypothesis that occupational lifting is a risk factor for retinal detachment. Methods The study population included 48 cases (patients operated for retinal detachment) and 84 controls (outpatients attending an eye clinic). The odds ratios (OR) of idiopathic retinal detachment were estimated with a logistic regression model (adjusted for age, sex and body mass index). Three indexes were used to examine exposure to lifting; 1) maximum load lifted, 2) average weekly lifting, 3) lifelong cumulative lifting. Results For all indexes, the most exposed subjects showed an increased risk of retinal detachment compared with the unexposed (index 1: OR 3.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-10.48; index 2: OR 3.24, 95% CI 1.32-7.97; index 3: OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.27-8.74) and dose-response relationships were apparent. Conclusion These results reinforce the hypothesis that heavy occupational lifting may be a relevant risk factor for retinal detachment. PMID:22953231

Profile local linear estimation of generalized semiparametric regression model for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Sun, Yanqing; Sun, Liuquan; Zhou, Jie

2013-07-01

This paper studies the generalized semiparametric regression model for longitudinal data where the covariate effects are constant for some and time-varying for others. Different link functions can be used to allow more flexible modelling of longitudinal data. The nonparametric components of the model are estimated using a local linear estimating equation and the parametric components are estimated through a profile estimating function. The method automatically adjusts for heterogeneity of sampling times, allowing the sampling strategy to depend on the past sampling history as well as possibly time-dependent covariates without specifically model such dependence. A [Formula: see text]-fold cross-validation bandwidth selection is proposed as a working tool for locating an appropriate bandwidth. A criteria for selecting the link function is proposed to provide better fit of the data. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated. Large sample pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals for the regression coefficients are constructed. Formal hypothesis testing procedures are proposed to check for the covariate effects and whether the effects are time-varying. A simulation study is conducted to examine the finite sample performances of the proposed estimation and hypothesis testing procedures. The methods are illustrated with a data example.

Multireader multicase reader studies with binary agreement data: simulation, analysis, validation, and sizing.

PubMed

Chen, Weijie; Wunderlich, Adam; Petrick, Nicholas; Gallas, Brandon D

2014-10-01

We treat multireader multicase (MRMC) reader studies for which a reader's diagnostic assessment is converted to binary agreement (1: agree with the truth state, 0: disagree with the truth state). We present a mathematical model for simulating binary MRMC data with a desired correlation structure across readers, cases, and two modalities, assuming the expected probability of agreement is equal for the two modalities ([Formula: see text]). This model can be used to validate the coverage probabilities of 95% confidence intervals (of [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], or [Formula: see text] when [Formula: see text]), validate the type I error of a superiority hypothesis test, and size a noninferiority hypothesis test (which assumes [Formula: see text]). To illustrate the utility of our simulation model, we adapt the Obuchowski-Rockette-Hillis (ORH) method for the analysis of MRMC binary agreement data. Moreover, we use our simulation model to validate the ORH method for binary data and to illustrate sizing in a noninferiority setting. Our software package is publicly available on the Google code project hosting site for use in simulation, analysis, validation, and sizing of MRMC reader studies with binary agreement data.

Multireader multicase reader studies with binary agreement data: simulation, analysis, validation, and sizing

PubMed Central

Chen, Weijie; Wunderlich, Adam; Petrick, Nicholas; Gallas, Brandon D.

2014-01-01

Abstract. We treat multireader multicase (MRMC) reader studies for which a reader’s diagnostic assessment is converted to binary agreement (1: agree with the truth state, 0: disagree with the truth state). We present a mathematical model for simulating binary MRMC data with a desired correlation structure across readers, cases, and two modalities, assuming the expected probability of agreement is equal for the two modalities (P1=P2). This model can be used to validate the coverage probabilities of 95% confidence intervals (of P1, P2, or P1−P2 when P1−P2=0), validate the type I error of a superiority hypothesis test, and size a noninferiority hypothesis test (which assumes P1=P2). To illustrate the utility of our simulation model, we adapt the Obuchowski–Rockette–Hillis (ORH) method for the analysis of MRMC binary agreement data. Moreover, we use our simulation model to validate the ORH method for binary data and to illustrate sizing in a noninferiority setting. Our software package is publicly available on the Google code project hosting site for use in simulation, analysis, validation, and sizing of MRMC reader studies with binary agreement data. PMID:26158051

Household contact with pets and birds and risk of lymphoma.

PubMed

Bellizzi, Saverio; Cocco, Pierluigi; Zucca, Mariagrazia; D'Andrea, Ileana; Sesler, Simonetta; Monne, Maria; Onida, Angela; Piras, Giovanna; Uras, Antonella; Angelucci, Emanuele; Gabbas, Attilio; Rais, Marco; Nitsch, Dorothea; Ennas, Maria G

2011-02-01

Contact with household pets has been suggested to be inversely associated with lymphoma risk. We tested the hypothesis in a case-control study of lymphoma in the Sardinia region of Italy. Cases were 326 patients, first diagnosed with lymphoma in 1999-2003. Controls were 464 population controls, frequency matched to cases by age, gender, and area of residence. In person interviews included self-reported household contact with pets and birds, type of pet(s), and age at starting contact. Frequent contact with birds was inversely associated with lymphoma, and particularly B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma (odds ratio [OR] = 0.6, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.4, 0.9). Contact with chickens accounted for this inverse association, which was strongest for first contact occurring at age ≤8 years (OR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2, 1.0). No association was observed when first contact occurred at age 9 or older. Contact with any pets was inversely associated with risk of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (OR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2, 1.0), but not other lymphoma subtypes. Our results support the hypothesis that early-life exposure to pets, birds and particularly with chickens might be associated with a reduced risk of lymphoma.

Sequential parallel comparison design with binary and time-to-event outcomes.

PubMed

Silverman, Rachel Kloss; Ivanova, Anastasia; Fine, Jason

2018-04-30

Sequential parallel comparison design (SPCD) has been proposed to increase the likelihood of success of clinical trials especially trials with possibly high placebo effect. Sequential parallel comparison design is conducted with 2 stages. Participants are randomized between active therapy and placebo in stage 1. Then, stage 1 placebo nonresponders are rerandomized between active therapy and placebo. Data from the 2 stages are pooled to yield a single P value. We consider SPCD with binary and with time-to-event outcomes. For time-to-event outcomes, response is defined as a favorable event prior to the end of follow-up for a given stage of SPCD. We show that for these cases, the usual test statistics from stages 1 and 2 are asymptotically normal and uncorrelated under the null hypothesis, leading to a straightforward combined testing procedure. In addition, we show that the estimators of the treatment effects from the 2 stages are asymptotically normal and uncorrelated under the null and alternative hypothesis, yielding confidence interval procedures with correct coverage. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate the utility of the binary and time-to-event SPCD. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Continuous Transversus Abdominis Plane Nerve Blocks: Does Varying Local Anesthetic Delivery Method-Automatic Repeated Bolus Versus Continuous Basal Infusion-Influence the Extent of Sensation to Cold?: A Randomized, Triple-Masked, Crossover Study in Volunteers.

PubMed

Khatibi, Bahareh; Said, Engy T; Sztain, Jacklynn F; Monahan, Amanda M; Gabriel, Rodney A; Furnish, Timothy J; Tran, Johnathan T; Donohue, Michael C; Ilfeld, Brian M

2017-04-01

It remains unknown whether continuous or scheduled intermittent bolus local anesthetic administration is preferable for transversus abdominis plane (TAP) catheters. We therefore tested the hypothesis that when using TAP catheters, providing local anesthetic in repeated bolus doses increases the cephalad-caudad cutaneous effects compared with a basal-only infusion. Bilateral TAP catheters (posterior approach) were inserted in 24 healthy volunteers followed by ropivacaine 2 mg/mL administration for a total of 6 hours. The right side was randomly assigned to either a basal infusion (8 mL/h) or bolus doses (24 mL administered every 3 hours for a total of 2 bolus doses) in a double-masked manner. The left side received the alternate treatment. The primary end point was the extent of sensory deficit as measured by cool roller along the axillary line at hour 6 (6 hours after the local anesthetic administration was initiated). Secondary end points included the extent of sensory deficit as measured by cool roller and Von Frey filaments along the axillary line and along a transverse line at the level of the anterior superior iliac spine at hours 0 to 6. Although there were statistically significant differences between treatments within the earlier part of the administration period, by hour 6 the difference in extent of sensory deficit to cold failed to reach statistical significance along the axillary line (mean = 0.9 cm; SD = 6.8; 95% confidence interval -2.0 to 3.8; P = .515) and transverse line (mean = 2.5 cm; SD = 10.1; 95% confidence interval -1.8 to 6.8; P = .244). Although the difference between treatments was statistically significant at various early time points for the horizontal, vertical, and estimated area measurements of both cold and mechanical pressure sensory deficits, no comparison remained statistically significant by hour 6. No evidence was found in this study involving healthy volunteers to support the hypothesis that changing the local anesthetic administration technique (continuous basal versus hourly bolus) when using ropivacaine 0.2% and TAP catheters at 8 mL/h and 24 mL every 3 hours significantly influences the cutaneous effects after 6 hours of administration. Additional research is required to determine whether changing variables (eg, local anesthetic concentration, basal infusion rate, bolus dose volume, and/or interval) would provide different results.

Late winter survival of female mallards in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dugger, B.D.; Reinecke, K.J.; Fredrickson, L.H.

1994-01-01

Determining factors that limit winter survival of waterfowl is necessary to develop effective management plans. We radiomarked immature and adult female mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) after the 1988 and 1989 hunting seasons in eastcentral Arkansas to test whether natural mortality sources and habitat conditions during late winter limit seasonal survival. We used data from 92 females to calculate survival estimates. We observed no mortalities during 2,510 exposure days, despite differences in habitat conditions between years. We used the binomial distribution to calculate daily and 30-day survival estimates plus 95% confidence intervals of 0.9988 ltoreq 0.9997 ltoreq 1.00 and 0.9648 ltoreq 0.9925 ltoreq 1.00, respectively. Our data indirectly support the hypothesis that hunting mortality and habitat conditions during the hunting season are the major determinants of winter survival for female mallards in Arkansas.

Echolocation system of the bottlenose dolphin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, N. A.

2004-05-01

The hypothesis put forward by Vel’min and Dubrovsky [1] is discussed. The hypothesis suggests that bottlenose dolphins possess two functionally separate auditory subsystems: one of them serves for analyzing extraneous sounds, as in nonecholocating terrestrial animals, and the other performs the analysis of echoes caused by the echolocation clicks of the animal itself. The first subsystem is called passive hearing, and the second, active hearing. The results of experimental studies of dolphin’s echolocation system are discussed to confirm the proposed hypothesis. For the active hearing of dolphins, the notion of a critical interval is considered as the interval of time within which the formation of a merged auditory image of the echolocation object is formed when all echo highlights of the echo from this object fall within the critical interval.

Increased sex ratio in Russia and Cuba after Chernobyl: a radiological hypothesis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The ratio of male to female offspring at birth may be a simple and non-invasive way to monitor the reproductive health of a population. Except in societies where selective abortion skews the sex ratio, approximately 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. Generally, the human sex ratio at birth is remarkably constant in large populations. After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in April 1986, a long lasting significant elevation in the sex ratio has been found in Russia, i.e. more boys or fewer girls compared to expectation were born. Recently, also for Cuba an escalated sex ratio from 1987 onward has been documented and discussed in the scientific literature. Presentation of the hypothesis By the end of the eighties of the last century in Cuba as much as about 60% of the food imports were provided by the former Soviet Union. Due to its difficult economic situation, Cuba had neither the necessary insight nor the political strength to circumvent the detrimental genetic effects of imported radioactively contaminated foodstuffs after Chernobyl. We propose that the long term stable sex ratio increase in Cuba is essentially due to ionizing radiation. Testing of the hypothesis A synoptic trend analysis of Russian and Cuban annual sex ratios discloses upward jumps in 1987. The estimated jump height from 1986 to 1987 in Russia measures 0.51% with a 95% confidence interval (0.28, 0.75), p value < 0.0001. In Cuba the estimated jump height measures 2.99% (2.39, 3.60), p value < 0.0001. The hypothesis may be tested by reconstruction of imports from the world markets to Cuba and by radiological analyses of remains in Cuba for Cs-137 and Sr-90. Implications of the hypothesis If the evidence for the hypothesis is strengthened, there is potential to learn about genetic radiation risks and to prevent similar effects in present and future exposure situations. PMID:23947741

Précis of statistical significance: rationale, validity, and utility.

PubMed

Chow, S L

1998-04-01

The null-hypothesis significance-test procedure (NHSTP) is defended in the context of the theory-corroboration experiment, as well as the following contrasts: (a) substantive hypotheses versus statistical hypotheses, (b) theory corroboration versus statistical hypothesis testing, (c) theoretical inference versus statistical decision, (d) experiments versus nonexperimental studies, and (e) theory corroboration versus treatment assessment. The null hypothesis can be true because it is the hypothesis that errors are randomly distributed in data. Moreover, the null hypothesis is never used as a categorical proposition. Statistical significance means only that chance influences can be excluded as an explanation of data; it does not identify the nonchance factor responsible. The experimental conclusion is drawn with the inductive principle underlying the experimental design. A chain of deductive arguments gives rise to the theoretical conclusion via the experimental conclusion. The anomalous relationship between statistical significance and the effect size often used to criticize NHSTP is more apparent than real. The absolute size of the effect is not an index of evidential support for the substantive hypothesis. Nor is the effect size, by itself, informative as to the practical importance of the research result. Being a conditional probability, statistical power cannot be the a priori probability of statistical significance. The validity of statistical power is debatable because statistical significance is determined with a single sampling distribution of the test statistic based on H0, whereas it takes two distributions to represent statistical power or effect size. Sample size should not be determined in the mechanical manner envisaged in power analysis. It is inappropriate to criticize NHSTP for nonstatistical reasons. At the same time, neither effect size, nor confidence interval estimate, nor posterior probability can be used to exclude chance as an explanation of data. Neither can any of them fulfill the nonstatistical functions expected of them by critics.

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

Depressive symptoms and the incidence of adult-onset asthma in African American women

PubMed Central

Coogan, Patricia F.; Yu, Jeffrey; O’Connor, George T.; Brown, Timothy A.; Palmer, Julie R.; Rosenberg, Lynn

2014-01-01

Background Some evidence suggests that depression may increase the risk of adult-onset asthma. No data are available for African American women, in whom the prevalence of depression and asthma is high. Objective To conduct prospective analyses of the relation of depressive symptoms to asthma incidence in the Black Women’s Health Study, a prospective cohort of US black women followed since 1995 with mailed biennial questionnaires. Methods Of 31,848 participants followed from 1999 to 2011, 771 reported incident asthma. Depressive symptoms were ascertained on 1999 and 2005 follow-up questionnaires with the Center for Epidemiological Studies–Depression Scale (CES-D). Participants rated the frequency of 20 symptoms. A score was calculated by summing the responses to all questions. Cox regression models were used to derive incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals for 4 categories of the CES-D score in relation to incident asthma, adjusted for body mass index, smoking, and other covariates. Results The multivariable incidence rate ratio in the highest category of CES-D score (≥33) compared with the lowest (<16) was 2.08 (95% confidence interval 1.58–2.74), with a significant trend (P < .0001). The incidence rate ratio was higher in women who took antidepressants, were current or former smokers, were not obese, and were at least 40 years old, although there were no statistically significant interactions. Conclusion A positive association was observed between CES-D score and the incidence of adult-onset asthma. If the hypothesis is confirmed, depression could contribute substantially to the burden of asthma in adults. PMID:24440322

Prophylactic Antiepileptic Drug Use and Outcome in the Ethnic/Racial Variations of Intracerebral Hemorrhage Study.

PubMed

Sheth, Kevin N; Martini, Sharyl R; Moomaw, Charles J; Koch, Sebastian; Elkind, Mitchell S V; Sung, Gene; Kittner, Steven J; Frankel, Michael; Rosand, Jonathan; Langefeld, Carl D; Comeau, Mary E; Waddy, Salina P; Osborne, Jennifer; Woo, Daniel

2015-12-01

The role of antiepileptic drug (AED) prophylaxis after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) remains unclear. This analysis describes prevalence of prophylactic AED use, as directed by treating clinicians, in a prospective ICH cohort and tests the hypothesis that it is associated with poor outcome. Analysis included 744 patients with ICH enrolled in the Ethnic/Racial Variations of Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ERICH) study before November 2012. Baseline clinical characteristics and AED use were recorded in standardized fashion. ICH location and volume were recorded from baseline neuroimaging. We analyzed differences in patient characteristics by AED prophylaxis, and we used logistic regression to test whether AED prophylaxis was associated with poor outcome. The primary outcome was 3-month modified Rankin Scale score, with 4 to 6 considered poor outcome. AEDs were used for prophylaxis in 289 (39%) of the 744 subjects; of these, levetiracetam was used in 89%. Patients with lobar ICH, craniotomy, or larger hematomas were more likely to receive prophlyaxis. Although prophylactic AED use was associated with poor outcome in an unadjusted model (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.88; P=0.03), this association was no longer significant after adjusting for clinical and demographic characteristics (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.65; P=0.62). We found no evidence that AED use (predominantly levetiracetam) is independently associated with poor outcome. A prospective study is required to assess for a more modest effect of AED use on outcome after ICH. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Intrapulmonary percussive ventilation vs incentive spirometry for children with neuromuscular disease.

PubMed

Reardon, Christine Campbell; Christiansen, Demian; Barnett, Elizabeth D; Cabral, Howard J

2005-06-01

Pulmonary infections can be life threatening for children with neuromuscular diseases who have impaired ability to clear secretions. Intrapulmonary percussive ventilation (IPV) is a pneumatic device that delivers air and aerosol to the lungs at frequencies of 200 to 300 cycles per minute at peak pressures from 20 to 40 cm H(2)O. Anecdotal reports and pilot studies show its safety and effectiveness in mobilizing secretions in patients with cystic fibrosis. To test the hypothesis that IPV used in a pulmonary program for adolescents with neuromuscular disease would reduce the number of days of antibiotic use for pulmonary infection. A randomized, controlled study was conducted to compare efficacy of IPV with incentive spirometry (IS) in reducing number of days of antibiotic use in adolescents with neuromuscular disease. The secondary endpoints were the number of respiratory infections, hospitalizations, and school days missed. A total of 18 patients were enrolled (9 IPV, 9 IS). Antibiotic use was significantly higher with IS (24/1000 patient-days) compared with IPV (0/1000 patient-days), (incidence rate ratio, 43; 95% confidence interval, 6-333). The IS group spent more days hospitalized (4.4/1000 patient-days vs 0/1000 patient-days) than the IPV group (incidence rate ratio, 8.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-67). The IPV group had 0 episodes of pneumonia or bacterial bronchitis compared with 3 events in the IS group, although this did not meet statistical significance. Intrapulmonary percussive ventilation as part of a preventive pulmonary regimen reduced days of antibiotic use and hospitalization for respiratory illness in adolescents with neuromuscular disease.

What everyone else is eating: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of informational eating norms on eating behavior.

PubMed

Robinson, Eric; Thomas, Jason; Aveyard, Paul; Higgs, Suzanne

2014-03-01

There is interest in the hypothesis that social norms are a determinant of healthy and unhealthy dietary practices. The objective of our work was to assess the weight of evidence that experimentally manipulated information about eating norms influences food intake and choice. This systematic review of experimental studies examined whether providing information about other peoples' eating habits influences food intake or choices. To inform the review, three electronic databases (PsycINFO, MEDLINE, and the Social Sciences Citation Index) were searched during July 2012. A narrative approach was used to synthesize studies that examined the influence of norms on food choice and meta-analyses were used to synthesize the effect that informational eating norms have on quantity of food consumed. Fifteen experimental studies were reviewed. There was evidence that both high intake norms (Z=3.84; P=0.0001; standardized mean difference 0.41, 95% confidence interval 0.20 to 0.63) and low intake norms (Z=2.78; P=0.005; standard mean difference -0.35, 95% confidence interval -0.59 to -0.10) exerted moderate influence on amounts of food eaten. There was consistent evidence that norms influenced food choices; norm information indicating that others make low-energy or high-energy food choices significantly increased the likelihood that participants made similar choices. Information about eating norms influences choice and quantity of food eaten, which could be used to promote healthy changes to dietary behavior. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Space-time distribution of the ALS incident cases by onset type in the Health District of Ferrara, Italy.

PubMed

Govoni, V; Della Coletta, E; Cesnik, E; Casetta, I; Tugnoli, V; Granieri, E

2015-04-01

An ecological study in the resident population of the Health District (HD) of Ferrara, Italy, has been carried out to establish the distribution in space and time of the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incident cases according to the disease onset type and gender in the period 1964-2009. The hypothesis of a uniform distribution was assumed. The incident cases of spinal onset ALS and bulbar onset ALS were evenly distributed in space and time in both men and women. The spinal onset ALS incident cases distribution according to gender was significantly different from the expected in the extra-urban population (20 observed cases in men 95% Poisson confidence interval 12.22-30.89, expected cases in men 12.19; six observed cases in women 95% Poisson confidence interval 2.20-13.06, expected cases in women 13.81), whereas no difference was found in the urban population. The spinal onset ALS incidence was higher in men than in women in the extra-urban population (difference between the rates = 1.53, 95% CI associated with the difference 0.52-2.54), whereas no difference between sexes was found in the urban population. The uneven distribution according to gender of the spinal onset ALS incident cases only in the extra-urban population suggests the involvement of a gender related environmental risk factor associated with the extra-urban environment. Despite some limits of the spatial analysis in the study of rare diseases, the results appear consistent with the literature data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Association between exposure to noise and risk of hypertension: a meta-analysis of observational epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Fu, Wenning; Wang, Chao; Zou, Li; Liu, Qiaoyan; Gan, Yong; Yan, Shijiao; Song, Fujian; Wang, Zhihong; Lu, Zuxun; Cao, Shiyi

2017-12-01

An increasing amount of original studies suggested that exposure to noise could be associated with the risk of hypertension, but the results remain inconsistent and inconclusive. We aimed to synthesize available epidemiological evidence about the relationship between various types of noise and hypertension, and to explore the potential dose-response relationship between them in an up-to-date meta-analysis. We conducted a literature search of PubMed and Embase from these databases' inception through December 2016 to identify observational epidemiological studies examining the association between noise and risk of hypertension. A random effects model was used to combine the results of included studies. Dose-response meta-analysis was conducted to examine the potential dose-response relationship. In total, 32 studies (five cohort studies, one case-control study, and 26 cross-section studies) involving 264 678 participants were eligible for inclusion. Pooled result showed that living or working in environment with noise exposure was significantly associated with increased risk of hypertension (odds ratio 1.62; 95% confidence interval: 1.40-1.88). We found no evidence of a curve linear association between noise and risk of hypertension. A dose-response analysis suggested that, for an increment of per 10 dB(A) of noise, the combined odds ratio of hypertension was 1.06 (95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.08). Integrated epidemiological evidence supports the hypothesis that exposure to noise may be a risk factor of hypertension, and there is a positive dose-response association between them.

Usefulness of Myeloperoxidase Levels in Healthy Elderly Subjects to Predict Risk of Developing Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Tang, W.H. Wilson; Katz, Ronit; Brennan, Marie-Luise; Aviles, Ronnier J.; Tracy, Russell P.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Hazen, Stanley L.

2009-01-01

Increased systemic myeloperoxidase (MPO) has been associated with both the presence and severity of heart failure (HF). This study tested the hypothesis that increased systemic MPO in apparently healthy elderly subjects may predict increased risk of developing HF. Systemic MPO was measured in all available samples from the 1992 to 1993 visit of the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). After excluding subjects without available blood samples or with a history of prevalent HF, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke, 3,733 subjects were included. A total of 569 subjects developed incident HF during 7.2 ± 2.3 years of follow-up. Patients in the highest MPO quartile (>432 pmol/L) showed higher risk of developing incident HF after adjusting for MI, age, gender, systolic blood pressure, smoking, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and any subclinical cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio 1.34, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.72, p = 0.013). However, the relation was more apparent after censoring subjects with incident MI before incident HF, even when adjusted for C-reactive protein and cystatin C (hazard ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.97, p = 0.02). Interestingly, stratified analyses showed that the relation between increased MPO and HF risk was stronger in subjects without traditional cardiovascular risk factors (≤75 years old, systolic blood pressure ≤136 mm Hg, no subclinical cardiovascular disease, and no diabetes mellitus). In conclusion, an independent association between increased MPO and the development of HF in apparently healthy elderly subjects was observed, particularly beyond MI and traditional cardiac risk factors. PMID:19406270

Perinatal determinants of germ-cell testicular cancer in relation to histological subtypes

PubMed Central

Richiardi, L; Akre, O; Bellocco, R; Ekbom, A

2002-01-01

We aimed to investigate the role of perinatal determinants on the risk for germ-cell testicular cancer, with respect to the aetiological heterogeneity between seminomas and non-seminomas. A case–control study of 628 case patients with testicular cancer (308 seminomas and 320 non-seminomas) and 2309 individually matched controls was nested within a cohort of boys born from 1920 to 1980 in two Swedish regions (Uppsala-Örebro Health Care Region and Stockholm). Cases were diagnosed from 1958 to 1998 and were identified through the Swedish National Cancer Registry. Perinatal information on cases and controls was collected through charts available at maternity wards. Gestational duration, categorised in three categories (<37, 37–41, >41 weeks), was negatively associated with the risk for testicular cancer (P value for linear trend=0.008). A protective effect of long gestational duration and an increased risk for high birth weight were found for seminomas. Non-seminomas were associated with short gestational duration, particularly among those with low birth order (odds ratio: 3.02, 95% confidence intervals: 1.53–5.97) and high maternal age (odds ratio: 2.33, 95% confidence intervals: 1.19–4.55). No significant differences were found in tests for heterogeneity between the two histological groups. Our data support the hypothesis that intrauterine environment affects the risk for germ-cell testicular cancer. Seminomas and non-seminomas seemed to have similar risk patterns, although they are not entirely congruent. British Journal of Cancer (2002) 87, 545–550. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600470 www.bjcancer.com © 2002 Cancer Research UK PMID:12189554

Mothers' Own Recollections Of Being Parented And Risk Of Offspring Depression 18 Years Later: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Mahedy, Liam; Heron, Jon; Stapinski, Lexine A; Pearson, Rebecca M; Evans, Jonathan; Joinson, Carol; Bowes, Lucy; Lewis, Glyn

2014-01-01

Background Although the relationship between maternal bonding and risk of offspring depression has been demonstrated, it is unclear whether this risk exists for subsequent generations. This study examines the association between maternal reports of her own mother's parenting and later risk of depression in offspring at age 18. Method This study is based on data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Mothers enrolled in the study, completed the Parental Bonding Instrument to provide an assessment of how they were parented by their own mothers up to the age of 16. Offspring depression was assessed at age of 18 using the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised. The sample comprised 10,405 respondents who had completed the Parental Bonding Instrument during the antenatal period. Results were adjusted for grandmother's history of depression, maternal depression, and a range of socioeconomic variables. Results A one standard deviation increase in mothers’ perceived lack of care in their own childhood was associated with a 16% increase in the odds of offspring depression at age 18 (odds ratios = 1.16, 95% confidence intervals = [1.04, 1.30]). This effect remained following adjustment for potential confounders (odds ratios = 1.14, 95% confidence intervals = [1.02, 1.27]). There was no evidence for an association between overprotection and offspring depression. Conclusions This study is consistent with the hypothesis that sensitive caregiving is important to future risk of depression across generations. Preventative interventions could be aimed at promoting positive parenting practices, which may help to reduce the risk of depression in subsequent generations. PMID:24105778

Do Psychosocial Stress and Social Disadvantage Modify the Association Between Air Pollution and Blood Pressure?

PubMed Central

Hicken, Margaret T.; Adar, Sara D.; Diez Roux, Ana V.; O'Neill, Marie S.; Magzamen, Sheryl; Auchincloss, Amy H.; Kaufman, Joel D.

2013-01-01

Researchers have theorized that social and psychosocial factors increase vulnerability to the deleterious health effects of environmental hazards. We used baseline examination data (2000–2002) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Participants were 45–84 years of age and free of clinical cardiovascular disease at enrollment (n = 6814). The modifying role of social and psychosocial factors on the association between exposure to air pollution comprising particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and blood pressure measures were examined using linear regression models. There was no evidence of synergistic effects of higher PM2.5 and adverse social/psychosocial factors on blood pressure. In contrast, there was weak evidence of stronger associations of PM2.5 with blood pressure in higher socioeconomic status groups. For example, those in the 10th percentile of the income distribution (i.e., low income) showed no association between PM2.5 and diastolic blood pressure (b = −0.41 mmHg; 95% confidence interval: −1.40, 0.61), whereas those in the 90th percentile of the income distribution (i.e., high income) showed a 1.52-mmHg increase in diastolic blood pressure for each 10-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 (95% confidence interval: 0.22, 2.83). Our results are not consistent with the hypothesis that there are stronger associations between PM2.5 exposures and blood pressure in persons of lower socioeconomic status or those with greater psychosocial adversity. PMID:24064742

Mortality after endophthalmitis following contemporary phacoemulsification cataract surgery.

PubMed

Crosby, Niall; Polkinghorne, Philip J; Kim, Bia; McGhee, Charles; Welch, Sarah; Riley, Andrew

2018-04-24

To determine if endophthalmitis following cataract surgery is linked to increased mortality. Increased mortality has been linked to patients with cataract and cataract surgery. We tested the hypothesis that post-cataract endophthalmitis has a greater risk of death than pseudophakes who do not develop this complication. Case-control study conducted in a tertiary public hospital. The study group comprised 50 consecutive patients with post-cataract endophthalmitis, and these were matched with selected controls. Patients with endophthalmitis following cataract surgery were identified from a prospective electronic surgical database. Subsequently, it was determined if the patient was deceased at the time of sequestration (September 2015), and the date of death was recorded. A previously described population who had undergone cataract surgery in the same facility was selected as a control group, and the population was case-matched in terms age, gender, presence or absence of diabetes and/or hypertension. The median survival rates were determined for the control group and the patients with post-cataract endophthalmitis. Fifty patients were identified as undergoing endophthalmitis post-cataract surgery, and 48 (n = 48) met inclusion criteria (mean age 72 years ±12 SD with 30:18 F:M); 17% were diabetic, and 50% had systemic hypertension. No statistically significant difference in median survival between the study and control cases was identified (100 months (95% confidence interval 86-114) vs. 106 months (95% confidence interval 66-146), respectively, P = 0.756). Post-cataract endophthalmitis was not associated with an increased rate of mortality in this study. © 2018 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Sweetened carbonated beverage consumption and cancer risk: meta-analysis and review.

PubMed

Boyle, Peter; Koechlin, Alice; Autier, Philippe

2014-09-01

There is speculation on an association between sweetened, carbonated beverage consumption and cancer risk. This study aimed to examine this issue. Over 50 independent estimates of risk were available, 11 for colas specifically. A random-effects meta-analysis was carried out with tests for publication bias performed as well as Higgins and Thompson's I measure of the percentage of heterogeneity between studies that could not be explained by chance. Over all the different sites of cancer, the summary relative risk (SRR), when all 55 independent estimates were considered together, was SRR=1.03 [95% confidence interval (0.96; 1.11)]. When individual cancer sites were considered, there was no significant increase or decrease in the meta-analysis estimate of risk of cancer of the pancreas, bladder, kidney, squamous cell or adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus, colon, gastric cardia, gastric noncardia, prostate, breast, larynx and ovary or of the oral cavity, pharynx or glioma. There was no evidence in a sensitivity analysis from those studies that reported results separately for colas of an associated risk of pancreas cancer [SRR=1.00, 95% confidence interval (0.61; 1.65)]. The results for all other forms of cancers were considerably hampered by poor methodology and small numbers of studies (mainly one report on each cancer site studied). Overall, the findings are reassuring in terms of the association between soft drinks, including colas, and cancer risk, although the quality of many of the studies is quite poor by acceptable, modern standards and no study has been carried out with use of carbonated beverages as a primary hypothesis.

Do psychosocial stress and social disadvantage modify the association between air pollution and blood pressure?: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Hicken, Margaret T; Adar, Sara D; Diez Roux, Ana V; O'Neill, Marie S; Magzamen, Sheryl; Auchincloss, Amy H; Kaufman, Joel D

2013-11-15

Researchers have theorized that social and psychosocial factors increase vulnerability to the deleterious health effects of environmental hazards. We used baseline examination data (2000-2002) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Participants were 45-84 years of age and free of clinical cardiovascular disease at enrollment (n = 6814). The modifying role of social and psychosocial factors on the association between exposure to air pollution comprising particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and blood pressure measures were examined using linear regression models. There was no evidence of synergistic effects of higher PM2.5 and adverse social/psychosocial factors on blood pressure. In contrast, there was weak evidence of stronger associations of PM2.5 with blood pressure in higher socioeconomic status groups. For example, those in the 10th percentile of the income distribution (i.e., low income) showed no association between PM2.5 and diastolic blood pressure (b = -0.41 mmHg; 95% confidence interval: -1.40, 0.61), whereas those in the 90th percentile of the income distribution (i.e., high income) showed a 1.52-mmHg increase in diastolic blood pressure for each 10-µg/m(3) increase in PM2.5 (95% confidence interval: 0.22, 2.83). Our results are not consistent with the hypothesis that there are stronger associations between PM2.5 exposures and blood pressure in persons of lower socioeconomic status or those with greater psychosocial adversity.

Randomised controlled trial of homoeopathy versus placebo in perennial allergic rhinitis with overview of four trial series.

PubMed

Taylor, M A; Reilly, D; Llewellyn-Jones, R H; McSharry, C; Aitchison, T C

To test the hypothesis that homoeopathy is a placebo by examining its effect in patients with allergic rhinitis and so contest the evidence from three previous trials in this series. Randomised, double blind, placebo controlled, parallel group, multicentre study. Four general practices and a hospital ear, nose, and throat outpatient department. 51 patients with perennial allergic rhinitis. Random assignment to an oral 30c homoeopathic preparation of principal inhalant allergen or to placebo. Changes from baseline in nasal inspiratory peak flow and symptom visual analogue scale score over third and fourth weeks after randomisation. Fifty patients completed the study. The homoeopathy group had a significant objective improvement in nasal airflow compared with the placebo group (mean difference 19.8 l/min, 95% confidence interval 10.4 to 29.1, P=0.0001). Both groups reported improvement in symptoms, with patients taking homoeopathy reporting more improvement in all but one of the centres, which had more patients with aggravations. On average no significant difference between the groups was seen on visual analogue scale scores. Initial aggravations of rhinitis symptoms were more common with homoeopathy than placebo (7 (30%) v 2 (7%), P=0.04). Addition of these results to those of three previous trials (n=253) showed a mean symptom reduction on visual analogue scores of 28% (10.9 mm) for homoeopathy compared with 3% (1.1 mm) for placebo (95% confidence interval 4.2 to 15.4, P=0.0007). The objective results reinforce earlier evidence that homoeopathic dilutions differ from placebo.

Fluoride-Releasing Materials to Prevent White Spot Lesions around Orthodontic Brackets: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Nascimento, Patrícia Layane de Menezes Macêdo; Fernandes, Micaelle Tenório Guedes; Figueiredo, Fabricio Eneas Diniz de; Faria-E-Silva, André Luis

2016-01-01

The relation between orthodontic fixed appliances use and enamel demineralization is well established. Different preventive approaches have been suggested to this problem, but controversy remains about which is the best. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review of clinical trials that investigated the effectiveness of materials containing fluorides to lute brackets or cover the bonding interface in order to inhibit the development and progression of white spot lesions. The null hypothesis was that fluoride materials do not affect the incidence of white spot lesions around brackets. A MEDLINE search was conducted for randomized clinical trials evaluating the development of white spot lesions in patients using fixed orthodontic appliances, followed by meta-analysis comparing the results for patients for whom dental materials containing fluorides were used (experimental group) to those for whom these materials were not used (control group). The pooled relative risk of developing white spot lesions for the experimental group was 0.42 (95% confidence interval: 0.25 to 0.72); hence, when fluoride-releasing materials are used, the patient has 58% less risk of white spot lesion development. Regarding white spot lesion extent, the pooled mean difference between the experimental and control groups was not statistically significant (-0.12; 95% confidence interval: -0.29 to 0.04). In conclusion, the results of the present systematic review suggest that fluoride-releasing materials can reduce the risk of white spot lesions around brackets. However, when white spot lesions had already occurred, there is no evidence that fluoride-releasing materials reduce the extent of these lesions.

The effect of race on postsurgical ambulatory medical follow-up among United States Veterans.

PubMed

Schonberger, Robert B; Dai, Feng; Brandt, Cynthia; Burg, Matthew M

2017-08-01

To investigate the association between self-identified black or African American race and the presence of ambulatory internal medicine follow-up in the year after surgery. Our hypothesis was that among US Veterans who presented for surgery, black or African American race would be associated with a decreased likelihood to receive ambulatory internal medicine follow-up in the year after surgery. Retrospective observational. All US Veterans Affairs hospitals. A total of 236,200 Veterans undergoing surgery between 2006 and 2011 who were discharged within 10 days of surgery and survived the full 1-year exposure period. None. Attendance at an internal medicine follow-up appointment within 1 year after surgery. After controlling for year of surgery, age, age ≥65 years, sex, Hispanic ethnicity, and number of inpatient days, black or African American patients were 11% more likely to lack internal medicine follow-up after surgery (adjusted odds ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.16). When accounting for geographic region, this difference remained significant at the Bonferoni-corrected P < .007 level only in the Midwest United States where black or African American patients were 28% more likely to lack medical follow-up in the year after surgery (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-1.42; P < .0001). The disparity in ambulatory medical follow-up following surgery among black or African American vs nonblack or non-African American Veterans in the Midwest region deserves further study and may lead to important quality improvement initiatives aimed specifically at this population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Breast cancer and ages at first marriage and first birth: a new hypothesis.

PubMed

Kinlen, Leo J

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine available data on breast cancer and age at first marriage from a new perspective: that is, marriage involves the closest contact and contact effects are relevant to the question of infection, a possibility long considered in this disorder. The large Seven Country Study, carried out in 1964-1968, investigated age at first marriage; its reports were examined carefully for details of possible relevance. Intriguing gaps were noted in the grounds for the conclusion by this study that late age at first birth explained an earlier reported association with late age at marriage, with risks presented by age at first marriage for nulliparous, but not for parous, married women. Only in one centre, Glamorgan Wales, and only for two age groups could risks by combined ages at first marriage and first birth be derived. When both events occurred at age 30 or older, the risk estimate was 7.0 (95% confidence interval: 5.2, 9.1) relative to when both events occurred younger than age 20, whereas the corresponding risk was 1.4 (95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.8) when age at first birth was 30 or older but marriage was younger than age 30. The above findings are consistent with an effect of age at first marriage, and a basis in contacts or infection is considered plausible. However, other explanations may exist, and this report primarily aims to encourage examination of the subject in other datasets, particularly where intersexual contrasts in infective exposures have probably existed.

Cardiovascular performance of adult breeding sows fails to obey allometric scaling laws.

PubMed

van Essen, G J; Vernooij, J C M; Heesterbeek, J A P; Anjema, D; Merkus, D; Duncker, D J

2011-02-01

In view of the remarkable decrease of the relative heart weight (HW) and the relative blood volume in growing pigs, we investigated whether HW, cardiac output (CO), and stroke volume (SV) of modern growing pigs are proportional to BW, as predicted by allometric scaling laws: HW (or CO or SV) = a·BW(b), in which a and b are constants, and constant b is a multiple of 0.25 (quarter-power scaling law). Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that both HW and CO scale with BW to the power of 0.75 (HW or CO = a·BW(0.75)) and SV scales with BW to the power of 1.00 (SV = a·BW(1.0)). For this purpose, 2 groups of pigs (group 1, consisting of 157 pigs of 50 ± 1 kg; group 2, consisting of 45 pigs of 268 ± 18 kg) were surgically instrumented with a flow probe or a thermodilution dilution catheter, under open-chest anesthetized conditions to measure CO and SV, after which HW was determined. The 95% confidence intervals of power-coefficient b for HW were 0.74 to 0.80, encompassing the predicted value of 0.75, suggesting that HW increased proportionally with BW, as predicted by the allometric scaling laws. In contrast, the 95% confidence intervals of power-coefficient b for CO and SV as measured with flow probes were 0.40 to 0.56 and 0.39 to 0.61, respectively, and values obtained with the thermodilution technique were 0.34 to 0.53 and 0.40 to 0.62, respectively. Thus, the 95% confidence limits failed to encompass the predicted values of b for CO and SV of 0.75 and 1.0, respectively. In conclusion, although adult breeding sows display normal heart growth, cardiac performance appears to be disproportionately low for BW. This raises concern regarding the health status of adult breeding sows.

Small sample mediation testing: misplaced confidence in bootstrapped confidence intervals.

PubMed

Koopman, Joel; Howe, Michael; Hollenbeck, John R; Sin, Hock-Peng

2015-01-01

Bootstrapping is an analytical tool commonly used in psychology to test the statistical significance of the indirect effect in mediation models. Bootstrapping proponents have particularly advocated for its use for samples of 20-80 cases. This advocacy has been heeded, especially in the Journal of Applied Psychology, as researchers are increasingly utilizing bootstrapping to test mediation with samples in this range. We discuss reasons to be concerned with this escalation, and in a simulation study focused specifically on this range of sample sizes, we demonstrate not only that bootstrapping has insufficient statistical power to provide a rigorous hypothesis test in most conditions but also that bootstrapping has a tendency to exhibit an inflated Type I error rate. We then extend our simulations to investigate an alternative empirical resampling method as well as a Bayesian approach and demonstrate that they exhibit comparable statistical power to bootstrapping in small samples without the associated inflated Type I error. Implications for researchers testing mediation hypotheses in small samples are presented. For researchers wishing to use these methods in their own research, we have provided R syntax in the online supplemental materials. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Amy E.

2014-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.

2011-01-01

In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

Characterizing the Mathematics Anxiety Literature Using Confidence Intervals as a Literature Review Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Yetkiner, Z. Ebrar; Thompson, Bruce

2010-01-01

The authors report the contextualization of effect sizes within mathematics anxiety research, and more specifically within research using the Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) and the MARS for Adolescents (MARS-A). The effect sizes from 45 studies were characterized by graphing confidence intervals (CIs) across studies involving (a) adults…

Statistical inference for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Statistical inference requires expression of an estimate in probabilistic terms, usually in the form of a confidence interval. An approach to constructing confidence intervals for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation is illustrated. The approach is based on post-classification methods using two independent forest/non-forest classifications because...

Estimating Standardized Linear Contrasts of Means with Desired Precision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2009-01-01

L. Wilkinson and the Task Force on Statistical Inference (1999) recommended reporting confidence intervals for measures of effect sizes. If the sample size is too small, the confidence interval may be too wide to provide meaningful information. Recently, K. Kelley and J. R. Rausch (2006) used an iterative approach to computer-generate tables of…

UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMATIC MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THERMAL-OPTICAL ANALYSIS FOR PM BLACK CARBON USING RESPONSE SURFACES AND SURFACE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

EPA Science Inventory

Results from a NIST-EPA Interagency Agreement on Understanding Systematic Measurement Error in Thermal-Optical Analysis for PM Black Carbon Using Response Surfaces and Surface Confidence Intervals will be presented at the American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) 24th Annu...

The impact of effort-reward imbalance on quality of life among Japanese working men.

PubMed

Watanabe, Mayumi; Tanaka, Katsutoshi; Aratake, Yutaka; Kato, Noritada; Sakata, Yumi

2008-07-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQL) is an important measure of health outcome in working and healthy populations. Here, we investigated the impact of effort-reward imbalance (ERI), a representative work-stress model, on HRQL of Japanese working men. The study targeted 1,096 employees from a manufacturing plant in Japan. To assess HRQL and ERI, participants were surveyed using the Japanese version of the Short-Form 8 Health Survey (SF-8) and effort-reward imbalance model. Of the 1,096 employees, 1,057 provided valid responses to the questionnaire. For physical summary scores, the adjusted effort-reward imbalance odds ratios of middle vs. bottom and top vs. bottom tertiles were 0.24 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.70) and 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.28), respectively. For mental summary scores, ratios were 0.21 (95% confidence interval, 0.07-0.63) and 0.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.25), respectively. These findings demonstrate that effort-reward imbalance is independently associated with HRQL among Japanese employees.

Sex hormones and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 9-year follow up among elderly men in Finland.

PubMed

Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Räihä, Ismo; Niskanen, Leo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Irjala, Kerttu

2015-05-01

To analyze whether sex hormone levels predict the incidence of type2 diabetes among elderly Finnish men. This was a prospective population-based study, with a 9-year follow up period. The study population in the municipality of Lieto, Finland, consisted of elderly (age ≥64 years) men free of type 2 diabetes at baseline in 1998-1999 (n = 430). Body mass index and cardiovascular disease-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for type 2 diabetes predicted by testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, luteinizing hormone, and testosterone/luteinizing hormone were estimated. A total of 30 new cases of type 2 diabetes developed during the follow-up period. After adjustment, only higher levels of testosterone (hazard ratio for one-unit increase 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99, P = 0.020) and free testosterone (hazard ratio for 10-unit increase 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00, P = 0.044) were associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes during the follow up. These associations (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.00, P = 0.050 and 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.00, P = 0.035, respectively) persisted even after additional adjustment of sex hormone-binding globulin. Higher levels of testosterone and free testosterone independently predicted a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes in the elderly men. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

N-acetyltransferase 2 gene polymorphism as a biomarker for susceptibility to bladder cancer in Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Hosen, Md Bayejid; Islam, Jahidul; Salam, Md Abdus; Islam, Md Fakhrul; Hawlader, M Zakir Hossain; Kabir, Yearul

2015-03-01

To investigate the association between the three most common single nucleotide polymorphisms of the N-acetyltransferase 2 gene together with cigarette smoking and the risk of developing bladder cancer and its aggressiveness. A case-control study on 102 bladder cancer patients and 140 control subjects was conducted. The genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells and N-acetyltransferase 2 alleles were differentiated by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism methods. Bladder cancer risk was estimated as odds ratio and 95% confidence interval using binary logistic regression models adjusting for age and gender. Overall, N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were associated with bladder cancer risk (odds ratio=4.45; 95% confidence interval=2.26-8.77). The cigarette smokers with slow genotypes were found to have a sixfold increased risk to develop bladder cancer (odds ratio=6.05; 95% confidence interval=2.23-15.82). Patients with slow acetylating genotypes were more prone to develop high-grade (odds ratio=6.63; 95% confidence interval=1.15-38.13; P<0.05) and invasive (odds ratio=10.6; 95% confidence interval=1.00-111.5; P=0.05) tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype together with tobacco smoking increases bladder cancer risk. Patients with N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were more likely to develop a high-grade and invasive tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype is an important genetic determinant for bladder cancer in Bangladesh population. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ruanpeng, Darin; Ungprasert, Patompong; Sangtian, Jutarat; Harindhanavudhi, Tasma

2017-09-01

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors could potentially alter calcium and phosphate homeostasis and may increase the risk of bone fracture. The current meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the fracture risk among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors. Randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors to placebo were identified. The risk ratios of fracture among patients who received SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo were extracted from each study. Pooled risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a random-effect, Mantel-Haenszel analysis. A total of 20 studies with 8286 patients treated with SGLT2 inhibitors were included. The pooled risk ratio of bone fracture in patients receiving SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo was 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.42-1.07). The pooled risk ratio for canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and empagliflozin was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.37-1.19), 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.22-3.18), and 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-1.59), respectively. Increased risk of bone fracture among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with placebo was not observed in this meta-analysis. However, the results were limited by short duration of treatment/follow-up and low incidence of the event of interest. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of gender role attitudes on smoking and drinking among girls from Jujuy, Argentina.

PubMed

Mejia, Raul; Kaplan, Celia P; Alderete, Ethel; Gregorich, Steven E; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

2013-09-01

Evaluate effect of gender role attitudes on tobacco and alcohol use among Argentinean girls. Cross-sectional survey of 10th grade students attending 27 randomly selected schools in Jujuy, Argentina. Questions about tobacco and alcohol use were adapted from global youth surveys. Five items with 5-point response options of agreement-disagreement assessed attitude towards egalitarian (higher score) gender roles. 2133 girls, aged 13-18 years, 71% Indigenous, 22% mixed Indigenous/European, and 7% European responded. Of these, 60% had ever smoked, 32% were current smokers, 58% ever drinkers, 27% drank in previous month, and 13% had ≥5 drinks on one occasion. Mean response to the gender role scale was 3.49 (95% Confidence Intervals = 3.41-3.57) out of 5 tending toward egalitarian attitudes. Logistic regression models using the gender role scale score as the main predictor and adjusting for demographic and social confounders showed that egalitarian gender role was associated with ever smoking (Odds Ratio = 1.25; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.09-1.44), ever drinking (Odds Ratio = 1.24; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.10-1.40), drinking in prior month (Odds Ratio = 1.21; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.07-1.37) and ≥5 drinks on one occasion (Odds Ratio = 1.15; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.00-1.33), but was not significant for current smoking. Girls in Jujuy who reported more egalitarian gender role attitudes had higher odds of smoking or drinking. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hostility and the risk of peptic ulcer in the GAZEL cohort.

PubMed

Lemogne, Cédric; Schuster, Jean-Pierre; Levenstein, Susan; Melchior, Maria; Nabi, Hermann; Ducimetière, Pierre; Limosin, Frédéric; Goldberg, Marcel; Zins, Marie; Consoli, Silla M

2015-02-01

Evidence for an association between hostility and peptic ulcer mainly relies on cross-sectional studies. Prospective studies are rare and have not used a validated measure of hostility. This prospective study aimed to examine the association between hostility and peptic ulcer in the large-scale French GAZEL cohort. In 1993, 14,674 participants completed the Buss and Durkee Hostility Inventory. Participants were annually followed-up from 1994 to 2011. Diagnosis of peptic ulcer was self-reported. The association between hostility scores and ulcer incidence was measured by hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals computed through Cox regression. Among 13,539 participants free of peptic ulcer history at baseline, 816 reported a peptic ulcer during a mean follow-up of 16.8 years. Adjusting for potential confounders, including smoking, occupational grade, and a proxy for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug exposure, ulcer incidence was positively associated with total hostility (HR per SD: 1.23, confidence interval: 1.14-1.31), behavioral hostility (HR per SD: 1.13, confidence interval: 1.05-1.21), cognitive hostility (HR per SD: 1.26, confidence interval: 1.18-1.35), and irritability (HR per SD: 1.20, confidence interval: 1.12-1.29). The risk of peptic ulcer increased from the lowest to the highest quartile for all hostility measures (p for linear trend < .05). Hostility might be associated with an increased risk of peptic ulcer. Should these results be replicated, further studies would be needed to explore the underlying mechanisms.

Rank score and permutation testing alternatives for regression quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Richards, J.D.; Mielke, P.W.

2006-01-01

Performance of quantile rank score tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1) were evaluated by simulation for models with p = 2 and 6 predictors, moderate collinearity among predictors, homogeneous and hetero-geneous errors, small to moderate samples (n = 20–300), and central to upper quantiles (0.50–0.99). Test statistics evaluated were the conventional quantile rank score T statistic distributed as χ2 random variable with q degrees of freedom (where q parameters are constrained by H 0:) and an F statistic with its sampling distribution approximated by permutation. The permutation F-test maintained better Type I errors than the T-test for homogeneous error models with smaller n and more extreme quantiles τ. An F distributional approximation of the F statistic provided some improvements in Type I errors over the T-test for models with > 2 parameters, smaller n, and more extreme quantiles but not as much improvement as the permutation approximation. Both rank score tests required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when heterogeneity under the alternative model increased to 5 standard deviations across the domain of X. A double permutation procedure was developed to provide valid Type I errors for the permutation F-test when null models were forced through the origin. Power was similar for conditions where both T- and F-tests maintained correct Type I errors but the F-test provided some power at smaller n and extreme quantiles when the T-test had no power because of excessively conservative Type I errors. When the double permutation scheme was required for the permutation F-test to maintain valid Type I errors, power was less than for the T-test with decreasing sample size and increasing quantiles. Confidence intervals on parameters and tolerance intervals for future predictions were constructed based on test inversion for an example application relating trout densities to stream channel width:depth.

Albumin treatment regimen for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome: a dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Salerno, Francesco; Navickis, Roberta J; Wilkes, Mahlon M

2015-11-25

Recommended treatment for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome consists of albumin and vasoconstrictor. The optimal albumin dose remains poorly characterized. This meta-analysis aimed to determine the impact of albumin dose on treatment outcomes. Clinical studies of type 1 hepatorenal syndrome treatment with albumin and vasoconstrictor were sought. Search terms included: hepatorenal syndrome; albumin; vasoconstrictor; terlipressin; midodrine; octreotide; noradrenaline; and norepinephrine. A meta-analysis was performed of hepatorenal syndrome reversal and survival in relation to albumin dose. Nineteen clinical studies with 574 total patients were included, comprising 8 randomized controlled trials, 8 prospective studies and 3 retrospective studies. The pooled percentage of patients achieving hepatorenal syndrome reversal was 49.5% (95% confidence interval, 40.0-59.1%). Increments of 100 g in cumulative albumin dose were accompanied by significantly increased survival (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.31; p = 0.023). A non-significant increase of similar magnitude in hepatorenal syndrome reversal was also observed (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.37; p = 0.10). Expected survival rates at 30 days among patients receiving cumulative albumin doses of 200, 400 and 600 g were 43.2% (95% confidence interval, 36.4-51.3%), 51.4% (95% confidence interval, 46.3-57.1%) and 59.0% (95% confidence interval, 51.9-67.2), respectively. Neither survival nor hepatorenal syndrome reversal was significantly affected by vasoconstrictor dose or type, treatment duration, age, baseline serum creatinine, bilirubin or albumin, baseline mean arterial pressure, or study design, size or time period. This meta-analysis suggests a dose-response relationship between infused albumin and survival in patients with type 1 hepatorenal syndrome. The meta-analysis provides the best current evidence on the potential role of albumin dose selection in improving outcomes of treatment for type 1 HRS and furnishes guidance for the design of future dose-ranging studies.

Prevalence of orofacial clefts and risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in newborns at a university hospital from West Mexico.

PubMed

Corona-Rivera, Jorge Román; Bobadilla-Morales, Lucina; Corona-Rivera, Alfredo; Peña-Padilla, Christian; Olvera-Molina, Sandra; Orozco-Martín, Miriam A; García-Cruz, Diana; Ríos-Flores, Izabel M; Gómez-Rodríguez, Brian Gabriel; Rivas-Soto, Gemma; Pérez-Molina, J Jesús

2018-02-19

We determined the overall prevalence of typical orofacial clefts and the potential risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in a university hospital from West México. For the prevalence, 227 liveborn infants with typical orofacial clefts were included from a total of 81,193 births occurred during the period 2009-2016 at the "Dr. Juan I. Menchaca" Civil Hospital of Guadalajara (Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico). To evaluate potential risks, a case-control study was conducted among 420 newborns, including only those 105 patients with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (cases), and 315 infants without birth defects (controls). Data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis expressed as adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals . The overall prevalence for typical orofacial clefts was 28 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval: 24.3-31.6), or 1 per 358 live births. The mean values for the prepregnancy weight, antepartum weight, and pre-pregnancy body mass index were statistically higher among the mothers of cases. Infants with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate had a significantly higher risk for previous history of any type of congenital anomaly (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7; 95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.1), history of a relative with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (adjusted odds ratio: 19.6; 95% confidence interval: 8.2-47.1), and first-trimester exposures to progestogens (adjusted odds ratio: 6.8; 95% CI 1.8-25.3), hyperthermia (adjusted odds ratio: 3.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-10.6), and common cold (adjusted odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-11.9). These risks could have contributed to explain the high prevalence of orofacial clefts in our region of Mexico, emphasizing that except for history of relatives with cleft lip with or without cleft palate, most are susceptible of modification. © 2018 Japanese Teratology Society.

Fixed ratio combinations of glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists with basal insulin: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liakopoulou, Paraskevi; Liakos, Aris; Vasilakou, Despoina; Athanasiadou, Eleni; Bekiari, Eleni; Kazakos, Kyriakos; Tsapas, Apostolos

2017-06-01

Basal insulin controls primarily fasting plasma glucose but causes hypoglycaemia and weight gain, whilst glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists induce weight loss without increasing risk for hypoglycaemia. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials to investigate the efficacy and safety of fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library as well as conference abstracts up to December 2016. We assessed change in haemoglobin A 1c , body weight, and incidence of hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal adverse events. We included eight studies with 5732 participants in the systematic review. Switch from basal insulin to fixed ratio combinations with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist was associated with 0.72% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c [95% confidence interval -1.03 to -0.41; I 2  = 93%] and 2.35 kg reduction in body weight (95% confidence interval -3.52 to -1.19; I 2  = 93%), reducing also risk for hypoglycaemia [odds ratio 0.70; 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.86; I 2  = 85%] but increasing incidence of nausea (odds ratio 6.89; 95% confidence interval 3.73-12.74; I 2  = 79%). Similarly, switching patients from treatment with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist to a fixed ratio combination with basal insulin was associated with 0.94% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c (95% confidence interval -1.11 to -0.77) and an increase in body weight by 2.89 kg (95% confidence interval 2.17-3.61). Fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists improve glycaemic control whilst balancing out risk for hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal side effects.

Neonatal Infection in Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Smilga, Anne-Sophie; Garfinkle, Jarred; Ng, Pamela; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-03-01

The goal of this study was to explore the association between neonatal infection and outcomes in children with cerebral palsy. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Canadian CP Registry. Neonatal infection was defined as meeting one of the following criteria: (1) septicemia, (2) septic shock, or (3) administration of antibiotics for ≥10 days. Phenotypic profiles of children with cerebral palsy with and without an antecedent neonatal infection were compared. Subgroup analysis was performed, stratified by gestational age (term versus preterm). Of the 1229 registry participants, 505 (41.1%) were preterm, and 192 (15.6%) met the criteria for neonatal infection with 29% of preterm children having a neonatal infection compared with 6.5% in term-born children. Children with prior neonatal infection were more likely to have a white matter injury (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.2), spastic diplegic neurological subtype (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.3), and sensorineural auditory impairment (odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 3.3). Among preterm children, neonatal infection was not associated with a difference in phenotypic profile. Term-born children with neonatal infection were more likely to have spastic triplegia or quadriplegia (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.3), concomitant white matter and cortical injury (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6 to 10.3), and more severe gross motor ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System IV to V) (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8) compared with preterm children. Findings suggest a role of systemic infection on the developing brain in term-born infants, and the possibility to develop targeted therapeutic and preventive strategies to reduce cerebral palsy morbidity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

T-category remains an important prognostic factor for oropharyngeal carcinoma in the era of human papillomavirus.

PubMed

Mackenzie, P; Pryor, D; Burmeister, E; Foote, M; Panizza, B; Burmeister, B; Porceddu, S

2014-10-01

To determine prognostic factors for locoregional relapse (LRR), distant relapse and all-cause death in a contemporary cohort of locoregionally advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone. OSCC patients treated with definitive radiotherapy between 2005 and 2010 were identified from a prospective head and neck database. Patient age, gender, smoking history, human papillomavirus (HPV) status, T- and N-category, lowest involved nodal level and gross tumour volume of the primary (GTV-p) and nodal (GTV-n) disease were analysed in relation to LRR, distant relapse and death by way of univariate and multivariate analysis. In total, 130 patients were identified, 88 HPV positive, with a median follow-up of 42 months. On multivariate analysis HPV status was a significant predictor of LRR (hazard ratio 0.15; 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.51) and death (hazard ratio 0.29; 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.59) but not distant relapse (hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.22-1.27). Increasing T-category was associated with a higher risk of LRR (hazard ratio 1.80 for T3/4 versus T1/2; 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.99), death (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.77) and distant relapse (hazard ratio 1.35; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.83). Increasing GTV-p was associated with increased risk of distant relapse and death. N3 disease and low neck nodes were significant for LRR, distant relapse and death on univariate analysis only. Tumour HPV status was the strongest predictor of LRR and death. T-category is more predictive of distant relapse and may provide additional prognostic value for LRR and death when accounting for HPV status. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) as screening instruments for depression in patients with cancer.

PubMed

Hartung, Tim J; Friedrich, Michael; Johansen, Christoffer; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Faller, Herman; Koch, Uwe; Brähler, Elmar; Härter, Martin; Keller, Monika; Schulz, Holger; Wegscheider, Karl; Weis, Joachim; Mehnert, Anja

2017-11-01

Depression screening in patients with cancer is recommended by major clinical guidelines, although the evidence on individual screening tools is limited for this population. Here, the authors assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of 2 established screening instruments: the depression modules of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D), in a representative sample of patients with cancer. This multicenter study was conducted with a proportional, stratified, random sample of 2141 patients with cancer across all major tumor sites and treatment settings. The PHQ-9 and HADS-D were assessed and compared in terms of diagnostic accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition diagnosis of major depressive disorder using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview for Oncology as the criterion standard. The diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-9 and HADS-D was fair for diagnosing major depressive disorder, with areas under the ROC curves of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.79) and 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.77), respectively. The 2 questionnaires did not differ significantly in their areas under the ROC curves (P = .15). The PHQ-9 with a cutoff score ≥7 had the best screening performance, with a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 78%-89%) and a specificity of 61% (95% confidence interval, 59%-63%). The American Society of Clinical Oncology guideline screening algorithm had a sensitivity of 44% (95% confidence interval, 36%-51%) and a specificity of 84% (95% confidence interval, 83%-85%). In patients with cancer, the screening performance of both the PHQ-9 and the HADS-D was limited compared with a standardized diagnostic interview. Costs and benefits of routinely screening all patients with cancer should be weighed carefully. Cancer 2017;123:4236-4243. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal.

PubMed

Mocroft, Amanda; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Egger, Matthias; May, Margaret; Grabar, Sophie; Furrer, Hansjakob; Sabin, Caroline; Fatkenheuer, Gerd; Justice, Amy; Reiss, Peter; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Gill, John; Hogg, Robert; Bonnet, Fabrice; Kitahata, Mari; Staszewski, Schlomo; Casabona, Jordi; Harris, Ross; Saag, Michael

2009-04-15

The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

Out-of-range INR values and outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Nelson, Winnie W; Wang, Li; Baser, Onur; Damaraju, Chandrasekharrao V; Schein, Jeffrey R

2015-02-01

Although efficacious in stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation, many warfarin patients are sub-optimally managed. To evaluate the association of international normalized ratio control and clinical outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Adult non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients (≥18 years) initiating warfarin treatment were selected from the US Veterans Health Administration dataset between 10/2007 and 9/2012. Valid international normalized ratio values were examined from the warfarin initiation date through the earlier of the first clinical outcome, end of warfarin exposure or death. Each patient contributed multiple in-range and out-of-range time periods. The relative risk ratios of clinical outcomes associated with international normalized ratio control were estimated. 34,346 patients were included for analysis. During the warfarin exposure period, the incidence of events per 100 person-years was highest when patients had international normalized ratio <2:13.66 for acute coronary syndrome; 10.30 for ischemic stroke; 2.93 for transient ischemic attack; 1.81 for systemic embolism; and 4.55 for major bleeding. Poisson regression confirmed that during periods with international normalized ratio <2, patients were at increased risk of developing acute coronary syndrome (relative risk ratio: 7.9; 95 % confidence interval 6.9-9.1), ischemic stroke (relative risk ratio: 7.6; 95 % confidence interval 6.5-8.9), transient ischemic attack (relative risk ratio: 8.2; 95 % confidence interval 6.1-11.2), systemic embolism (relative risk ratio: 6.3; 95 % confidence interval 4.4-8.9) and major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 2.6; 95 % confidence interval 2.2-3.0). During time periods with international normalized ratio >3, patients had significantly increased risk of major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 1.5; 95 % confidence interval 1.2-2.0). In a Veterans Health Administration non-valvular atrial fibrillation population, exposure to out-of-range international normalized ratio values was associated with significantly increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes.

The prevalence of diagnosed tourette syndrome in Canada: A national population-based study.

PubMed

Yang, Jaeun; Hirsch, Lauren; Martino, Davide; Jette, Nathalie; Roberts, Jodie; Pringsheim, Tamara

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine: (1) the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome in Canada by sex in youth (aged 12-17) and adults and (2) socioeconomic factors in this population. The majority of epidemiological studies of tics have focused on children and youth, with few studies describing the prevalence of tics in adult populations. Canadian data on Tourette syndrome prevalence were derived from the Canadian Community Health Survey 2010 and 2011 cycles, a Statistics Canada population-based cross-sectional survey that collects information related to health status. We determined the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome and examined sociodemographic factors, including age, sex, education, income, employment, and birthplace. Overall, 122,884 Canadians participated in the surveys, with 122 participants diagnosed with Tourette syndrome. The prevalence of Tourette syndrome was higher in males in youth: 6.03 per 1000 (95% confidence interval: 3.24-8.81) in males versus 0.48 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.91) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 5.31 (95% confidence interval: 2.38-11.81). In adults, the prevalence of Tourette syndrome was 0.89 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.48-1.29) in males versus 0.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.16.0-0.71) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 1.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-3.08). After adjusting for age and sex, adults with Tourette syndrome had lower odds of receiving postsecondary education or being employed and higher odds of having income lower than the median and receiving governmental support. Data on the prevalence of Tourette syndrome in adults are scarce because most studies focus on children. Our data demonstrate a decreasing prevalence risk ratio for sex in adults compared to children. A diagnosis of Tourette syndrome is associated with lower education, income, and employment in adulthood. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Stroke preparedness in children: translating knowledge into behavioral intent: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ottawa, Cassandra; Sposato, Luciano A; Nabbouh, Fadl; Saposnik, Gustavo

2015-10-01

If translated into behavioral intent, improving stroke knowledge may potentially impact on better outcomes. Children are an attractive target population since they can drive familial behavioral changes. However, the impact of interventions on stroke knowledge among children is unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether educational interventions targeting children improve stroke knowledge and lead to behavioral changes. We searched Ovid, PubMed, and Embase between January 2000 and December 2014. We included studies written in English reporting the number of children aged 6-15 years undergoing educational interventions on stroke and providing the results for baseline and early and late postintervention tests. We compared the proportion of correct answers between baseline, early, and late responses for two endpoints: knowledge and behavioral intent. Of the initial 58 articles found, we included nine that met the inclusion criteria. Compared with baseline tests (51·7%, 95% confidence interval 40·9-62·4), there was improvement in stroke knowledge in early (74·0%, 95% confidence interval 64·4-82·5, P = 0·002) and late (67·3%, 95% confidence interval 55·4-78·2, P = 0·027) responses. There was improvement in the early (92·1%, 95% confidence interval 86·0-96·6, P < 0·001) and late (83·9%, 95% confidence interval 73·5-92·1, P = 0·001) responses for behavioral intent compared with the baseline assessment (63·8%, 95% confidence interval 53·5-73·4). Children are a potentially attractive target population for improvement in stroke knowledge and behavioral intent, both in the short and long term. Our findings may support the implementation of large-scale stroke educational initiatives targeting children. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Suicide in patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sugawara, Akitomo; Kunieda, Etsuo

2016-09-01

We conducted this study to examine the rate of suicide in patients with gastric cancer and to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The database was queried for patients who were diagnosed with gastric cancer from 1998 to 2011. The rate of suicide and standardized mortality ratio were calculated. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide. A total of 65 535 patients with 109 597 person-years of follow-up were included. A total of 68 patients died of suicide. The age-adjusted rate of suicide was 34.6 per 100 000 person-years (standardized mortality ratios, 4.07; 95% confidence interval, 3.18-5.13). The rate of suicide was highest within the first 3 months after cancer diagnosis (standardized mortality ratios, 67.67; 95% confidence interval, 40.74-106.15). Results of multivariable analyses showed that male sex (incidence rate ratio, 7.15; 95% confidence interval, 3.05-16.78; P < 0.0001), White race (incidence rate ratio, 3.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-10.35; P = 0.0491), unmarried status (incidence rate ratio, 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.30; P = 0.0060) and distant stage disease (incidence rate ratio, 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.72-4.92; P < 0.0001) were significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. Patients with gastric cancer have an ~4-fold higher risk of suicide compared with the general US population. The suicide risk is highest within the first 3 months after diagnosis. Male sex, White race, unmarried status and distant stage disease are significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Integrating palliative care across settings: A retrospective cohort study of a hospice home care programme for cancer patients.

PubMed

Tan, Woan Shin; Lee, Angel; Yang, Sze Yee; Chan, Susan; Wu, Huei Yaw; Ng, Charis Wei Ling; Heng, Bee Hoon

2016-07-01

Terminally ill patients at the end-of-life do transit between care settings due to their complex care needs. Problems of care fragmentation could result in poor quality of care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of an integrated hospice home care programme on acute care service usage and on the share of home deaths. The retrospective study cohort comprised patients who were diagnosed with cancer, had an expected prognosis of 1 year or less, and were referred to a home hospice. The intervention group comprised deceased patients enrolled in the integrated hospice home care programme between September 2012 and June 2014. The historical comparison group comprised deceased patients who were referred to other home hospices between January 2007 and January 2011. There were 321 cases and 593 comparator subjects. Relative to the comparator group, the share of hospital deaths was significantly lower for programme participants (12.1% versus 42.7%). After adjusting for differences at baseline, the intervention group had statistically significantly lower emergency department visits at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.38; 95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.47), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.69) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.77) prior to death. Similar results held for the number of hospitalisations at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.48; 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.58), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.82) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.88) prior to death. Our results demonstrated that by integrating services between acute care and home hospice care, a reduction in acute care service usage could occur. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of dry eye syndrome in an adult population.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Mehravaran, Shiva; Shariati, Mohammad; Fotouhi, Akbar

2014-04-01

To determine the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the general 40- to 64-year-old population of Shahroud, Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Through cluster sampling, 6311 people were selected and 5190 participated. Assessment of dry eye was done in a random subsample of 1008 people. Subjective assessment for dry eye syndrome was performed using Ocular Surface Disease Index questionnaire. In addition, the following objective tests of dry eye syndrome were employed: Schirmer test, tear break-up time, and fluorescein and Rose Bengal staining using the Oxford grading scheme. Those with an Ocular Surface Disease Index score ≥23 were considered symptomatic, and dry eye syndrome was defined as having symptoms and at least one positive objective sign. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 6.9-10.6). Assessment of signs showed an abnormal Schirmer score in 17.8% (95% confidence interval 15.5-20.0), tear break-up time in 34.2% (95% confidence interval 29.5-38.8), corneal fluorescein staining (≥1) in 11.3% (95% confidence interval 8.5-14.1) and Rose Bengal staining (≥3 for cornea and/or conjunctiva) in 4.9% (95% confidence interval 3.4-6.5). According to the Ocular Surface Disease Index scores, 18.3% (95% confidence interval 15.9-20.6) had dry eye syndrome symptoms. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was significantly higher in women (P = 0.010) and not significantly associated with age (P = 0.291). The objective dry eye syndrome signs significantly increased with age. Based on the findings, the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the studied population is in the mid-range. The prevalence is higher in women. Also, objective tests tend to turn abnormal at higher age. Pterygium is associated with dry eye syndrome and increased its symptoms. © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The diagnostic value of narrow-band imaging for early and invasive lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Juanjuan; Li, Wei; Zhou, Jihong; Chen, Yuqing; Zhao, Chenling; Zhang, Ting; Peng, Wenjia; Wang, Xiaojing

2017-07-01

This study aimed to compare the ability of narrow-band imaging to detect early and invasive lung cancer with that of conventional pathological analysis and white-light bronchoscopy. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Sinomed, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases for relevant studies. Meta-disc software was used to perform data analysis, meta-regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and heterogeneity testing, and STATA software was used to determine if publication bias was present, as well as to calculate the relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs those of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer. A random-effects model was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the above modalities in cases in which a high degree of between-study heterogeneity was noted with respect to their diagnostic efficacies. The database search identified six studies including 578 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging were 86% (95% confidence interval: 83-88%) and 81% (95% confidence interval: 77-84%), respectively, and the pooled sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy were 70% (95% confidence interval: 66-74%) and 66% (95% confidence interval: 62-70%), respectively. The pooled relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs the sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer were 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.67) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.42), respectively, and sensitivity analysis showed that narrow-band imaging exhibited good diagnostic efficacy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer and that the results of the study were stable. Narrow-band imaging was superior to white light bronchoscopy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer; however, the specificities of the two modalities did not differ significantly.

Antecedents and neuroimaging patterns in cerebral palsy with epilepsy and cognitive impairment: a population-based study in children born at term.

PubMed

Ahlin, Kristina; Jacobsson, Bo; Nilsson, Staffan; Himmelmann, Kate

2017-07-01

Antecedents of accompanying impairments in cerebral palsy and their relation to neuroimaging patterns need to be explored. A population-based study of 309 children with cerebral palsy born at term between 1983 and 1994. Prepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum variables previously studied as antecedents of cerebral palsy type and motor severity were analyzed in children with cerebral palsy and cognitive impairment and/or epilepsy, and in children with cerebral palsy without these accompanying impairments. Neuroimaging patterns and their relation to identified antecedents were analyzed. Data were retrieved from the cerebral palsy register of western Sweden, and from obstetric and neonatal records. Children with cerebral palsy and accompanying impairments more often had low birthweight (kg) (odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3-0.8), brain maldevelopment known at birth (p = 0.007, odds ratio ∞) and neonatal infection (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.04-28.4). Moreover, neuroimaging patterns of maldevelopment (odds ratio 7.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-17.2), cortical/subcortical lesions (odds ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 2.3-12.2) and basal ganglia lesions (odds ratio 7.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-41.3) were more common, wheras white matter injury was found significantly less often (odds ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.5). In most children with maldevelopment, the intrapartum and postpartum periods were uneventful (p < 0.05). Cerebral maldevelopment was associated with prepartum antecedents, whereas subcortical/cortical and basal ganglia lesions were associated with intrapartum and postpartum antecedents. No additional factor other than those related to motor impairment was associated with epilepsy and cognitive impairment in cerebral palsy. Timing of antecedents deemed important for the development of cerebral palsy with accompanying impairments were supported by neuroimaging patterns. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Breast cancer biology varies by method of detection and may contribute to overdiagnosis.

PubMed

Hayse, Brandon; Hooley, Regina J; Killelea, Brigid K; Horowitz, Nina R; Chagpar, Anees B; Lannin, Donald R

2016-08-01

Recently, it has been suggested that screening mammography may result in some degree of overdiagnosis (ie, detection of breast cancers that would never become clinically important within the lifespan of the patient). The extent and biology of these overdiagnosed cancers, however, is not well understood, and the effect of newer screening modalities on overdiagnosis is unknown. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database of breast cancers diagnosed at the Yale Breast Center from 2004-2014. The mode of initial presentation was categorized into 5 groups: screening mammogram, screening magnetic resonance imaging, screening ultrasonography, self-detected masses, and physician-detected masses. Compared with cancers presenting with masses, cancers detected by image-based screening were more likely to present with ductal carcinoma-in-situ or T1 cancers (P < .001). In addition to a simple stage shift, however, cancers detected by image-based screening were also more likely to be luminal and low-grade cancers; symptomatic cancers were more likely high-grade and triple-negative (P < .001, respectively). On a multivariate analysis, adjusting for age, race, and tumor size, cancers detected by mammogram, US, and magnetic resonance imaging had greater odds of being luminal (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.3; odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-4.7; and odds ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval, 2.1-10.6, respectively), and low-grade (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.9; odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval, 2.7-8.9; and odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval, 2.6-8.1, respectively) compared with cancers presenting with self-detected masses. Screening detects cancers with more indolent biology, potentially contributing to the observed rate of overdiagnosis. With magnetic resonance imaging and US being used more commonly for screening, the rate of overdiagnosis may increase further. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Individuals with high obsessive-compulsive tendencies or undermined confidence rely more on external proxies to access their internal states.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongming; Wang, Mengyun; Miao, Xiaocui; Li, Yijuan; Hitchman, Glenn; Yuan, Zhen

2017-03-01

The Seeking Proxies for Internal States (SPIS) hypothesis predicts that obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is associated with a deficit in subjective convictions, which may lead to a reliance on external substitutes for the perceptions of an individual's internal states. Two well-designed studies were performed for the present work that adopted a false bio-feedback procedure in a muscle tension task to examine the SPIS hypothesis. The false bio-feedback paradigm was used to investigate our hypothesis. NeXus-10 Mark II hardware and V2011 BioTrace + software (Mind Media B.V., Herten, Netherlands) were utilized to measure the muscle tension of the flexor carpiulnaris muscle, which characterized the target's internal state. In addition, false EMG changes were recorded and displayed on a computer monitor and were considered external proxies. Study 1 demonstrated that the participants with high obsessive-compulsive (OC) tendencies were more affected by the false bio-feedback and exhibited lower confidence in their judgments regarding their muscle tension compared with the participants with low OC tendencies. These findings indicate that subjects with high OC tendencies were more influenced by self-perception effects. In contrast, the subjects in the undermined confidence group in Study 2 were more easily influenced by the false bio-feedback compared with the control group, which suggests that the subjects in the undermined confidence group were more affected by self-perception effects. We did not combine the undermined confidence with OC tendencies or OCD symptoms in our paradigm to investigate their joint effects on self-perception. Our findings provide further evidence that supports the SPIS hypothesis, which indicates that OC tendencies and the confidence in an individual's recognition of internal states appear to have similar effects on the assessment of internal states and reliance on proxies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes.

PubMed

Borzych-Duzalka, Dagmara; Aki, T Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A

2017-01-06

Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes

PubMed Central

Aki, T. Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. Results In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Conclusions Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. PMID:27899416

Toxoplasma gondii exposure and epilepsy: A matched case-control study in a public hospital in northern Mexico.

PubMed

Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Rico-Almochantaf, Yazmin Del Rosario; Hernández-Tinoco, Jesús; Quiñones-Canales, Gerardo; Sánchez-Anguiano, Luis Francisco; Torres-González, Jorge; Ramírez-Valles, Eda Guadalupe; Minjarez-Veloz, Andrea

2018-01-01

This study aimed to determine the association between infection with Toxoplasma gondii and epilepsy in patients attended to in a public hospital in the northern Mexican city of Durango. We performed an age- and gender-matched case-control study of 99 patients suffering from epilepsy and 99 without epilepsy. Sera of participants were analyzed for anti- T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies using commercially available enzyme-linked immunoassays. Seropositive samples to T. gondii were further analyzed for detection of T. gondii DNA by polymerase chain reaction. Anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 10 (10.1%) of the 99 cases and in 6 (6.1%) of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.60-4.99; p = 0.43). High (> 150 IU/mL) levels of anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 6 of the 99 cases and in 4 of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval: 0.41-5.60; p = 0.74). Anti- T. gondii IgM antibodies were found in 2 of the 10 IgG seropositive cases, and in 2 of the 6 IgG seropositive controls (odds ratio = 0.50; 95% confidence interval: 0.05-4.97; p = 0.60). T. gondii DNA was not found in any of the 10 anti- T. gondii IgG positive patients. Bivariate analysis of IgG seropositivity to T. gondii and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and related Health Problems, 10th Edition codes of epilepsy showed an association between seropositivity and G40.1 code (odds ratio = 22.0; 95% confidence interval: 2.59-186.5; p = 0.008). Logistic regression analysis showed an association between T. gondii infection and consumption of goat meat (odds ratio = 6.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-34.64; p = 0.02), unwashed raw vegetables (odds ratio = 26.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.61-265.23; p = 0.006), and tobacco use (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-36.66; p = 0.04). Results suggest that T. gondii infection does not increase the risk of epilepsy in our setting; however, infection might be linked to specific types of epilepsy. Factors associated with T. gondii infection found in this study may aid in the design of preventive measures against toxoplasmosis.

Association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and susceptibility to vitiligo: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Silky; Changotra, Harish

2017-01-01

Protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 gene, which translates to lymphoid tyrosine phosphatase, is considered to be a susceptibility gene marker associated with several autoimmune diseases. Several studies have demonstrated the association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo. However, these studies showed conflicting results. Meta-analysis of the same was conducted earlier that included fewer number of publications in their study. We performed a meta-analysis of a total of seven studies consisting of 2094 cases and 3613 controls to evaluate the possible association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C>T polymorphism with vitiligo susceptibility. We conducted a literature search in PubMed, Google Scholar and Dogpile for all published paper on protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and vitiligo risk till June 2016. Data analysis was performed by RevMan 5.3 and comprehensive meta-analysis v3.0 software. Meta-analysis showed an overall significant association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non- receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo in all models (allelic model [T vs. C]: odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [1.32-1.71], P< 0.001; dominant model [TT + CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [1.16-2.24], P = 0.004; recessive model [TT vs. CT + CC]: odds ratio = 4.82, 95% confidence interval [1.11-20.92], P = 0.04; homozygous model [TT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 5.34, 95% confidence interval [1.23-23.24], P = 0.03; co-dominant model [CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.52, 95% confidence interval [1.09-2.13], P = 0.01). No publication bias was detected in the funnel plot study. Limited ethnic-based studies, unable to satisfy data by gender or vitiligo-type are some limitations of the present meta-analysis. Stratifying data by ethnicity showed an association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T with vitiligo in European population (odds ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [1.34-1.75], P< 0.001) but not in Asian population (odds ratio = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [0.26-1.32], P = 0.2). In conclusion, protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858 T allele predisposes European individuals to vitiligo.

Are non-human primates capable of rhythmic entrainment? Evidence for the gradual audiomotor evolution hypothesis.

PubMed

Merchant, Hugo; Honing, Henkjan

2013-01-01

We propose a decomposition of the neurocognitive mechanisms that might underlie interval-based timing and rhythmic entrainment. Next to reviewing the concepts central to the definition of rhythmic entrainment, we discuss recent studies that suggest rhythmic entrainment to be specific to humans and a selected group of bird species, but, surprisingly, is not obvious in non-human primates. On the basis of these studies we propose the gradual audiomotor evolution hypothesis that suggests that humans fully share interval-based timing with other primates, but only partially share the ability of rhythmic entrainment (or beat-based timing). This hypothesis accommodates the fact that non-human primates (i.e., macaques) performance is comparable to humans in single interval tasks (such as interval reproduction, categorization, and interception), but show differences in multiple interval tasks (such as rhythmic entrainment, synchronization, and continuation). Furthermore, it is in line with the observation that macaques can, apparently, synchronize in the visual domain, but show less sensitivity in the auditory domain. And finally, while macaques are sensitive to interval-based timing and rhythmic grouping, the absence of a strong coupling between the auditory and motor system of non-human primates might be the reason why macaques cannot rhythmically entrain in the way humans do.

Characterization of Myocardial Repolarization Reserve in Adolescent Females With Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

Padfield, Gareth J; Escudero, Carolina A; DeSouza, Astrid M; Steinberg, Christian; Gibbs, Karen; Puyat, Joseph H; Lam, Pei Yoong; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Sherwin, Elizabeth; Potts, James E; Sandor, George; Krahn, Andrew D

2016-02-09

Patients with anorexia nervosa exhibit abnormal myocardial repolarization and are susceptible to sudden cardiac death. Exercise testing is useful in unmasking QT prolongation in disorders associated with abnormal repolarization. We characterized QT adaptation during exercise in anorexia. Sixty-one adolescent female patients with anorexia nervosa and 45 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers performed symptom-limited cycle ergometry during 12-lead ECG monitoring. Changes in the QT interval during exercise were measured, and QT/RR-interval slopes were determined by using mixed-effects regression modeling. Patients had significantly lower body mass index than controls; however, resting heart rates and QT/QTc intervals were similar at baseline. Patients had shorter exercise times (13.7±4.5 versus 20.6±4.5 minutes; P<0.001) and lower peak heart rates (159±20 versus 184±9 beats/min; P<0.001). The mean QTc intervals were longer at peak exercise in patients (442±29 versus 422±19 ms; P<0.001). During submaximal exertion at comparable heart rates (114±6 versus 115±11 beats/min; P=0.54), the QTc interval had prolonged significantly more in patients than controls (37±28 versus 24±25 ms; P<0.016). The RR/QT slope, best described by a curvilinear relationship, was more gradual in patients than in controls (13.4; 95% confidence interval, 12.8-13.9 versus 15.8; 95% confidence interval, 15.3-16.4 ms QT change per 10% change in RR interval; P<0.001) and steepest in patients within the highest body mass index tertile versus the lowest (13.9; 95% confidence interval, 12.9-14.9 versus 12.3; 95% confidence interval, 11.3-13.3; P=0.026). Despite the absence of manifest QT prolongation, adolescent anorexic females have impaired repolarization reserve in comparison with healthy controls. Further study may identify impaired QT dynamics as a risk factor for arrhythmias in anorexia nervosa. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Accuracy assessment of percent canopy cover, cover type, and size class

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; S. Bain; R. C. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

Truth for vegetation cover percent and type is obtained from very large-scale photography (VLSP), stand structure as measured by size classes, and vegetation types from a combination of VLSP and ground sampling. We recommend using the Kappa statistic with bootstrap confidence intervals for overall accuracy, and similarly bootstrap confidence intervals for percent...

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz

2013-01-01

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…

SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurdugul, Halil

2009-01-01

This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2017-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

Association of Serum Magnesium on Mortality in Patients Admitted to the Intensive Cardiac Care Unit.

PubMed

Naksuk, Niyada; Hu, Tiffany; Krittanawong, Chayakrit; Thongprayoon, Charat; Sharma, Sunita; Park, Jae Yoon; Rosenbaum, Andrew N; Gaba, Prakriti; Killu, Ammar M; Sugrue, Alan M; Peeraphatdit, Thoetchai; Herasevich, Vitaly; Bell, Malcolm R; Brady, Peter A; Kapa, Suraj; Asirvatham, Samuel J

2017-02-01

Although electrolyte disturbances may affect cardiac action potential, little is known about the association between serum magnesium and corrected QT (QTc) interval as well as clinical outcomes. A consecutive 8498 patients admitted to the Mayo Clinic Hospital-Rochester cardiac care unit (CCU) from January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2013 with 2 or more documented serum magnesium levels, were studied to test the hypothesis that serum magnesium levels are associated with in-hospital mortality, sudden cardiac death, and QTc interval. Patients were 67 ± 15 years; 62.2% were male. The primary diagnoses for CCU admissions were acute myocardial infarction (50.7%) and acute decompensated heart failure (42.5%), respectively. Patients with higher magnesium levels were older, more likely male, and had lower glomerular filtration rates. After multivariate analyses adjusted for clinical characteristics including kidney disease and serum potassium, admission serum magnesium levels were not associated with QTc interval or sudden cardiac death. However, the admission magnesium levels ≥2.4 mg/dL were independently associated with an increase in mortality when compared with the reference level (2.0 to <2.2 mg/dL), having an adjusted odds ratio of 1.80 and a 95% confidence interval of 1.25-2.59. The sensitivity analysis examining the association between postadmission magnesium and analysis that excluded patients with kidney failure and those with abnormal serum potassium yielded similar results. This retrospective study unexpectedly observed no association between serum magnesium levels and QTc interval or sudden cardiac death. However, serum magnesium ≥2.4 mg/dL was an independent predictor of increased hospital morality among CCU patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in oral health status and behavior of Greek dental students: A meta-analysis of 1981, 2000, and 2010 data

PubMed Central

Mamai-Homata, Eleni; Koletsi-Kounari, Haroula; Margaritis, Vasileios

2016-01-01

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the oral health status and behavior of Greek dental students over time, and to meta-analyze these findings to test the widely documented hypothesis that women have better oral health behavior, oral hygiene, and periodontal status but higher dental caries rates than men. Materials and Methods: A total sample of 385 students was examined using identical indices to assess oral health and behavioral data initially in 1981 while the years 2000 and 2010 were selected due to significant changes that took place in the dental curriculum in the 1990s and 2000s. Data by gender concerning the outcome variables recorded in every one of the three surveys were analyzed using Mantel–Haenszel and continuous outcomes methods. Results: A significant improvement in the oral health status and behavior of students was observed over time. The meta-analysis of data by gender showed that females brushed their teeth significantly more often than males [summary odds ratio (OR): 1.95 and 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08–3.54]. Males and females were found to have a similar risk of developing dental caries. Conclusion: The hypothesis that young women have better oral hygiene habits compared to men was confirmed. However, the hypothesis that women have better oral hygiene and periodontal status but exhibit higher dental caries experience than men was not supported by the findings of the study. PMID:27011935

Statistical significance versus clinical relevance.

PubMed

van Rijn, Marieke H C; Bech, Anneke; Bouyer, Jean; van den Brand, Jan A J G

2017-04-01

In March this year, the American Statistical Association (ASA) posted a statement on the correct use of P-values, in response to a growing concern that the P-value is commonly misused and misinterpreted. We aim to translate these warnings given by the ASA into a language more easily understood by clinicians and researchers without a deep background in statistics. Moreover, we intend to illustrate the limitations of P-values, even when used and interpreted correctly, and bring more attention to the clinical relevance of study findings using two recently reported studies as examples. We argue that P-values are often misinterpreted. A common mistake is saying that P < 0.05 means that the null hypothesis is false, and P ≥0.05 means that the null hypothesis is true. The correct interpretation of a P-value of 0.05 is that if the null hypothesis were indeed true, a similar or more extreme result would occur 5% of the times upon repeating the study in a similar sample. In other words, the P-value informs about the likelihood of the data given the null hypothesis and not the other way around. A possible alternative related to the P-value is the confidence interval (CI). It provides more information on the magnitude of an effect and the imprecision with which that effect was estimated. However, there is no magic bullet to replace P-values and stop erroneous interpretation of scientific results. Scientists and readers alike should make themselves familiar with the correct, nuanced interpretation of statistical tests, P-values and CIs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Dietary nucleotides and early growth in formula-fed infants: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Singhal, Atul; Kennedy, Kathy; Lanigan, J; Clough, Helen; Jenkins, Wendy; Elias-Jones, Alun; Stephenson, Terrence; Dudek, Peter; Lucas, Alan

2010-10-01

Dietary nucleotides are nonprotein nitrogenous compounds that are found in high concentrations in breast milk and are thought to be conditionally essential nutrients in infancy. A high nucleotide intake has been suggested to explain some of the benefits of breastfeeding compared with formula feeding and to promote infant growth. However, relatively few large-scale randomized trials have tested this hypothesis in healthy infants. We tested the hypothesis that nucleotide supplementation of formula benefits early infant growth. Occipitofrontal head circumference, weight, and length were assessed in infants who were randomly assigned to groups fed nucleotide-supplemented (31 mg/L; n=100) or control formula without nucleotide supplementation (n=100) from birth to the age of 20 weeks, and in infants who were breastfed (reference group; n=101). Infants fed with nucleotide-supplemented formula had greater occipitofrontal head circumference at ages 8, 16, and 20 weeks than infants fed control formula (mean difference in z scores at 8 weeks: 0.4 [95% confidence interval: 0.1-0.7]; P=.006) even after adjustment for potential confounding factors (P=.002). Weight at 8 weeks and the increase in both occipitofrontal head circumference and weight from birth to 8 weeks were also greater in infants fed nucleotide-supplemented formula than in those fed control formula. Our data support the hypothesis that nucleotide supplementation leads to increased weight gain and head growth in formula-fed infants. Therefore, nucleotides could be conditionally essential for optimal infant growth in some formula-fed populations. Additional research is needed to test the hypothesis that the benefits of nucleotide supplementation for early head growth, a critical period for brain growth, have advantages for long-term cognitive development.

Using the Coefficient of Confidence to Make the Philosophical Switch from a Posteriori to a Priori Inferential Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trafimow, David

2017-01-01

There has been much controversy over the null hypothesis significance testing procedure, with much of the criticism centered on the problem of inverse inference. Specifically, p gives the probability of the finding (or one more extreme) given the null hypothesis, whereas the null hypothesis significance testing procedure involves drawing a…

Frequency of depression in type 2 diabetes mellitus and an analysis of predictive factors.

PubMed

Arshad, Abdul Rehman; Alvi, Kamran Yousaf

2016-04-01

To determine frequency of depression in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and to identify predictive factors. The observational study was carried out at 1 Mountain Medical Battalion, Bagh, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan, from June 2013 to May 2014, and comprised type 2 diabetic patients who were not using anti-depressants and did not have history of other psychiatric illnesses. Demographic data, duration of diabetes, presence of hypertension and type of treatment were recorded and body mass index was calculated. Patient Health Questionnaire-9, translated into Urdu, was administered during face-to-face interviews. Scores >5 indicated depression, which was classified into different grades of severity using standard cut-off values. Of the 133 patients, 51(38.35%) were depressed. Depression was mild in 34(26%), moderate in 12(9.6%), moderately severe in 4(2.9%) and severe in 1(0.7%) patient. On univariate binary logistic regression, female gender (odds ratio=3.07; 95% confidence interval = 1.43, 6.59), lesser education (odds ratio = 0.90; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 0.97) shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.80, 0.96) and higher body mass index (odds ratio=1.41; 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.25) were significantly associated with depression. Only shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.90; 95% confidence interval = 0.82, 0.99) remained significant after adjustment for confounders. Age, level of education, glycaemic control and type of treatment did not predict depression. A significant proportion of type 2 diabetics were depressed. Shorter duration of diabetes reliably predicted depression in these patients.

EXACT DISTRIBUTIONS OF INTRACLASS CORRELATION AND CRONBACH'S ALPHA WITH GAUSSIAN DATA AND GENERAL COVARIANCE.

PubMed

Kistner, Emily O; Muller, Keith E

2004-09-01

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact results allow calculating the exact distribution function and other properties of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha, for Gaussian data with any covariance pattern, not just compound symmetry. Probabilities are computed in terms of the distribution function of a weighted sum of independent chi-square random variables. New F approximations for the distribution functions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are much simpler and faster to compute than the exact forms. Assuming the covariance matrix is known, the approximations typically provide sufficient accuracy, even with as few as ten observations. Either the exact or approximate distributions may be used to create confidence intervals around an estimate of reliability. Monte Carlo simulations led to a number of conclusions. Correctly assuming that the covariance matrix is compound symmetric leads to accurate confidence intervals, as was expected from previously known results. However, assuming and estimating a general covariance matrix produces somewhat optimistically narrow confidence intervals with 10 observations. Increasing sample size to 100 gives essentially unbiased coverage. Incorrectly assuming compound symmetry leads to pessimistically large confidence intervals, with pessimism increasing with sample size. In contrast, incorrectly assuming general covariance introduces only a modest optimistic bias in small samples. Hence the new methods seem preferable for creating confidence intervals, except when compound symmetry definitely holds.

A prospective observational cohort study to assess the incidence of acute otitis media among children 0-5 years of age in Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Lanzieri, Tatiana M; Cunha, Clóvis Arns da; Cunha, Rejane B; Arguello, D Fermin; Devadiga, Raghavendra; Sanchez, Nervo; Barria, Eduardo Ortega

To estimate acute otitis media incidence among young children and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers in a southern Brazilian city. Prospective cohort study including children 0-5 years of age registered at a private pediatric practice. Acute otitis media episodes diagnosed by a pediatrician and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers were assessed during a 12-month follow-up. During September 2008-March 2010, of 1,136 children enrolled in the study, 1074 (95%) were followed: 55.0% were ≤2 years of age, 52.3% males, 94.7% white, and 69.2% had previously received pneumococcal vaccine in private clinics. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 95.7 (95% confidence interval: 77.2-117.4) overall, 105.5 (95% confidence interval: 78.3-139.0) in children ≤2 years of age and 63.6 (95% confidence interval: 43.2-90.3) in children 3-5 years of age. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 86.3 (95% confidence interval: 65.5-111.5) and 117.1 (95% confidence interval: 80.1-165.3) among vaccinated and unvaccinated children, respectively. Nearly 68.9% of parents reported worsening of their overall quality of life. Acute otitis media incidence among unvaccinated children in our study may be useful as baseline data to assess impact of pneumococcal vaccine introduction in the Brazilian National Immunization Program in April 2010. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for gametocyte carriage in uncomplicated falciparum malaria in children before and after artemisinin-based combination treatments.

PubMed

Sowunmi, Akintunde; Okuboyejo, Titilope M; Gbotosho, Grace O; Happi, Christian T

2011-01-01

Artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) are the recommended first-line antimalarials globally, but their influence on the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage has had little evaluation in endemic areas. The risk factors associated with gametocytaemia at presentation and after ACTs were evaluated in 835 children assigned to artesunate, artesunate-amodiaquine, artesunate-mefloquine or artemether-lumefantrine. Gametocyte carriage at enrolment was 8.4%. During follow-up, 24 patients (2.8%) developed gametocytaemia, which in 83% (20 patients) had developed by day 7 following treatment. In a multiple regression model, 2 factors were independent risk factors for the presence of gametocytaemia at enrolment, namely age <3 years (adjusted odds ratio 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01-4.05; p = 0.04) and enrolment before 2009 (adjusted odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 2.09-8.44; p < 0.001). Haematocrit <25% and parasitaemia <50,000/μl blood were associated with an increased risk of gametocytaemia. Following treatment, 3 factors were independent risk factors for gametocytaemia, namely gametocytaemia at enrolment (adjusted odds ratio 46.39, 95% confidence interval 22.3-96.46; p < 0.0001) and treatment with artesunate (adjusted odds ratio 6.74, 95% confidence interval 1.79-25.27; p = 0.005) or artesunate-mefloquine (adjusted odds ratio 9.66, 95% confidence interval 2.87-32.46; p < 0.0.0001) relative to other ACTs. ACTs modified the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage after use. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Weighted regression analysis and interval estimators

Treesearch

Donald W. Seegrist

1974-01-01

A method for deriving the weighted least squares estimators for the parameters of a multiple regression model. Confidence intervals for expected values, and prediction intervals for the means of future samples are given.

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of the Tamarisk Leaf Beetle (Diorhabda carinulata) on the diet of insectivorous birds along the Dolores River in Southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puckett, Sarah L.; van Riper, Charles

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of a biologic control agent, the tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), on native avifauna in southwestern Colorado, specifically, addressing whether and to what degree birds eat tamarisk leaf beetles. In 2010, we documented avian foraging behavior, characterized the arthropod community, sampled bird diets, and undertook an experiment to determine whether tamarisk leaf beetles are palatable to birds. We observed that tamarisk leaf beetles compose 24.0 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 19.9-27.4 percent) and 35.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 32.4-45.1 percent) of arthropod abundance and biomass in the study area, respectively. Birds ate few tamarisk leaf beetles, despite a superabundance of D. carinulata in the environment. The frequency of occurrence of tamarisk leaf beetles in bird diets was 2.1 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 1.3- 2.9 percent) by abundance and 3.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 2.6-4.2 percent) by biomass. Thus, tamarisk leaf beetles probably do not contribute significantly to the diets of birds in areas where biologic control of tamarisk is being applied.

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents after a hurricane.

PubMed

Garrison, C Z; Weinrich, M W; Hardin, S B; Weinrich, S; Wang, L

1993-10-01

A school-based study conducted in 1990, 1 year after Hurricane Hugo, investigated the frequency and correlates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 1,264 adolescents aged 11-17 years residing in selected South Carolina communities. Data were collected via a 174-item self-administered questionnaire that included a PTSD symptom scale. A computer algorithm that applied decision rules of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised to the symptoms reported was used to assign a diagnosis of PTSD and to designate the number of individuals who met the reexperiencing (20%), avoidance (9%), and arousal (18%) criteria. Rates of PTSD were lowest in black males (1.5%) and higher, but similar, in the remaining groups (3.8-6.2%). Results from a multivariable logistic model indicated that exposure to the hurricane (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.41), experiencing other violent traumatic events (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.75-3.44), being white (OR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.69) and being female (OR = 2.17, 95% confidence interval 1.15-4.10) were significant correlates of PTSD.

Bendectin and human congenital malformations.

PubMed

Shiono, P H; Klebanoff, M A

1989-08-01

The relationship between Bendectin exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy and the occurrence of congenital malformations was prospectively studied in 31,564 newborns registered in the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Birth Defects Study. The odds ratio for any major malformation and Bendectin use was 1.0 (95% confidence interval 0.8-1.4). There were 58 categories of congenital malformations; three of them were statistically associated with Bendectin exposure (microcephaly--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.8-15.6; congenital cataract--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.2-24.3; lung malformations (ICD-8 codes 484.4-484.8)--odds ratio = 4.6, 95% confidence interval = 1.9-10.9). This is exactly the number of associations that would be expected by chance. An independent study (the Collaborative Perinatal Project) was used to determine whether vomiting during pregnancy in the absence of Bendectin use was associated with these three malformations. Two of the three (microcephaly and cataract) had strong positive associations with vomiting in the absence of Bendectin use. We conclude that there is no increase in the overall rate of major malformations after exposure to Bendectin and that the three associations found between Bendectin and individual malformations are unlikely to be causal.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

[On the effectiveness of the homeopathic remedy Arnica montana].

PubMed

Lüdtke, Rainer; Hacke, Daniela

2005-11-01

Arnica montana is a homeopathic remedy often prescribed after traumata and injuries. To assess whether Arnica is effective beyond placebo and to identify factors which support or contradict this effectiveness. All prospective, controlled trials on the effectiveness of homeopathic Arnica were included. Overall effectiveness was assessed by meta-analysis and meta-regression techniques. 68 comparisons from 49 clinical trials show a significant effectiveness of Arnica in traumatic injuries in random effects meta-analysis (odds ratio [OR], 0.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24-0.55), but not in meta-regression models (OR, 0.37; CI, 0.11-1.24). We found no evidence for publication bias. Studies from Medline-listed journals and high-quality studies are less likely to report positive results (p = 0.0006 and p = 0.0167). The hypothesis that homeopathic Arnica is effective could neither be proved nor rejected. All trials were highly heterogeneous, meta-regression does not help to explain this heterogeneity substantially.

Type I error probabilities based on design-stage strategies with applications to noninferiority trials.

PubMed

Rothmann, Mark

2005-01-01

When testing the equality of means from two different populations, a t-test or large sample normal test tend to be performed. For these tests, when the sample size or design for the second sample is dependent on the results of the first sample, the type I error probability is altered for each specific possibility in the null hypothesis. We will examine the impact on the type I error probabilities for two confidence interval procedures and procedures using test statistics when the design for the second sample or experiment is dependent on the results from the first sample or experiment (or series of experiments). Ways for controlling a desired maximum type I error probability or a desired type I error rate will be discussed. Results are applied to the setting of noninferiority comparisons in active controlled trials where the use of a placebo is unethical.

EGFR Somatic Mutations in Lung Tumors: Radon Exposure and Passive-smoking in Former- and Never-smoking U.S. Women

PubMed Central

Taga, Masataka; Mechanic, Leah E.; Hagiwara, Nobutoshi; Vähäkangas, Kirsi H.; Bennett, William P.; Alavanja, Michael C. R.; Welsh, Judith A.; Khan, Mohammed A.; Lee, Adam; Diasio, Robert; Edell, Eric; Bungum, Aaron; Jang, Jin Sung; Yang, Ping; Jen, Jin; Harris, Curtis C.

2012-01-01

Background Lung cancer patients with mutations in EGFR tyrosine kinase have improved prognosis when treated with EGFR inhibitors. We hypothesized that EGFR mutations may be related to residential radon or passive tobacco smoke. Methods This hypothesis was investigated by analyzing EGFR mutations in seventy lung tumors from a population of never and long-term former female smokers from Missouri with detailed exposure assessments. The relationship with passive-smoking was also examined in never-smoking female lung cancer cases from the Mayo clinic. Results Overall, the frequency of EGFR mutation was 41% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 32-49%]. Neither radon nor passive-smoking exposure was consistently associated with EGFR mutations in lung tumors. Conclusions The results suggest that EGFR mutations are common in female, never-smoking, lung cancer cases from the U.S, and EGFR mutations are unlikely due to exposure to radon or passive-smoking. PMID:22523180

The influence of journal submission guidelines on authors' reporting of statistics and use of open research practices.

PubMed

Giofrè, David; Cumming, Geoff; Fresc, Luca; Boedker, Ingrid; Tressoldi, Patrizio

2017-01-01

From January 2014, Psychological Science introduced new submission guidelines that encouraged the use of effect sizes, estimation, and meta-analysis (the "new statistics"), required extra detail of methods, and offered badges for use of open science practices. We investigated the use of these practices in empirical articles published by Psychological Science and, for comparison, by the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, during the period of January 2013 to December 2015. The use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) was extremely high at all times and in both journals. In Psychological Science, the use of confidence intervals increased markedly overall, from 28% of articles in 2013 to 70% in 2015, as did the availability of open data (3 to 39%) and open materials (7 to 31%). The other journal showed smaller or much smaller changes. Our findings suggest that journal-specific submission guidelines may encourage desirable changes in authors' practices.

Evaluating elements of trust: Race and class in risk communication in post-Katrina New Orleans.

PubMed

Battistoli, B F

2016-05-01

This study seeks to determine the relative influence of race and class on trust in sources of messages of environmental risk in post-Katrina New Orleans. It poses two hypotheses to test that influence: H1-African-Americans ("Blacks") trust risk message sources less than European American ("Whites") do and H2-The higher the socioeconomic class, the lower the trust in risk message sources. A 37-question telephone survey (landlines and cellphones) was conducted in Orleans Parish in 2012 (n = 414). The overall margin of error was ±4.8% at a 95% confidence interval. A hierarchical regression analysis revealed that the first hypothesis was rejected, while the second was supported. Additional data analysis revealed that frequency of use of sources of risk information appears to be a positive factor in building trust. © The Author(s) 2015.

Combined Analysis of Neutrino and Antineutrino Oscillations at T2K

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, K.; Amey, J.; Andreopoulos, C.; Antonova, M.; Aoki, S.; Ariga, A.; Autiero, D.; Ban, S.; Barbi, M.; Barker, G. J.; Barr, G.; Barry, C.; Bartet-Friburg, P.; Batkiewicz, M.; Berardi, V.; Berkman, S.; Bhadra, S.; Bienstock, S.; Blondel, A.; Bolognesi, S.; Bordoni, S.; Boyd, S. B.; Brailsford, D.; Bravar, A.; Bronner, C.; Buizza Avanzini, M.; Calland, R. G.; Campbell, T.; Cao, S.; Cartwright, S. L.; Catanesi, M. G.; Cervera, A.; Checchia, C.; Cherdack, D.; Chikuma, N.; Christodoulou, G.; Clifton, A.; Coleman, J.; Collazuol, G.; Coplowe, D.; Cudd, A.; Dabrowska, A.; De Rosa, G.; Dealtry, T.; Denner, P. F.; Dennis, S. R.; Densham, C.; Dewhurst, D.; Di Lodovico, F.; Di Luise, S.; Dolan, S.; Drapier, O.; Duffy, K. E.; Dumarchez, J.; Dziewiecki, M.; Emery-Schrenk, S.; Ereditato, A.; Feusels, T.; Finch, A. J.; Fiorentini, G. A.; Friend, M.; Fujii, Y.; Fukuda, D.; Fukuda, Y.; Galymov, V.; Garcia, A.; Giganti, C.; Gizzarelli, F.; Golan, T.; Gonin, M.; Hadley, D. R.; Haegel, L.; Haigh, M. D.; Hansen, D.; Harada, J.; Hartz, M.; Hasegawa, T.; Hastings, N. C.; Hayashino, T.; Hayato, Y.; Helmer, R. L.; Hillairet, A.; Hiraki, T.; Hiramoto, A.; Hirota, S.; Hogan, M.; Holeczek, J.; Hosomi, F.; Huang, K.; Ichikawa, A. K.; Ikeda, M.; Imber, J.; Insler, J.; Intonti, R. A.; Ishida, T.; Ishii, T.; Iwai, E.; Iwamoto, K.; Izmaylov, A.; Jamieson, B.; Jiang, M.; Johnson, S.; Jonsson, P.; Jung, C. K.; Kabirnezhad, M.; Kaboth, A. C.; Kajita, T.; Kakuno, H.; Kameda, J.; Karlen, D.; Katori, T.; Kearns, E.; Khabibullin, M.; Khotjantsev, A.; Kim, H.; Kim, J.; King, S.; Kisiel, J.; Knight, A.; Knox, A.; Kobayashi, T.; Koch, L.; Koga, T.; Konaka, A.; Kondo, K.; Kormos, L. L.; Korzenev, A.; Koshio, Y.; Kowalik, K.; Kropp, W.; Kudenko, Y.; Kurjata, R.; Kutter, T.; Lagoda, J.; Lamont, I.; Lamoureux, M.; Larkin, E.; Lasorak, P.; Laveder, M.; Lawe, M.; Licciardi, M.; Lindner, T.; Liptak, Z. J.; Litchfield, R. P.; Li, X.; Longhin, A.; Lopez, J. P.; Lou, T.; Ludovici, L.; Lu, X.; Magaletti, L.; Mahn, K.; Malek, M.; Manly, S.; Marino, A. D.; Martin, J. F.; Martins, P.; Martynenko, S.; Maruyama, T.; Matveev, V.; Mavrokoridis, K.; Ma, W. Y.; Mazzucato, E.; McCarthy, M.; McCauley, N.; McFarland, K. S.; McGrew, C.; Mefodiev, A.; Metelko, C.; Mezzetto, M.; Mijakowski, P.; Minamino, A.; Mineev, O.; Mine, S.; Missert, A.; Miura, M.; Moriyama, S.; Mueller, Th. A.; Myslik, J.; Nakadaira, T.; Nakahata, M.; Nakamura, K. G.; Nakamura, K.; Nakamura, K. D.; Nakanishi, Y.; Nakayama, S.; Nakaya, T.; Nakayoshi, K.; Nantais, C.; Nielsen, C.; Nirkko, M.; Nishikawa, K.; Nishimura, Y.; Novella, P.; Nowak, J.; O'Keeffe, H. M.; Okumura, K.; Okusawa, T.; Oryszczak, W.; Oser, S. M.; Ovsyannikova, T.; Owen, R. A.; Oyama, Y.; Palladino, V.; Palomino, J. L.; Paolone, V.; Patel, N. D.; Paudyal, P.; Pavin, M.; Payne, D.; Perkin, J. D.; Petrov, Y.; Pickard, L.; Pickering, L.; Pinzon Guerra, E. S.; Pistillo, C.; Popov, B.; Posiadala-Zezula, M.; Poutissou, J.-M.; Poutissou, R.; Przewlocki, P.; Quilain, B.; Radermacher, T.; Radicioni, E.; Ratoff, P. N.; Ravonel, M.; Rayner, M. A.; Redij, A.; Reinherz-Aronis, E.; Riccio, C.; Rodrigues, P. A.; Rondio, E.; Rossi, B.; Roth, S.; Rubbia, A.; Rychter, A.; Sakashita, K.; Sánchez, F.; Scantamburlo, E.; Scholberg, K.; Schwehr, J.; Scott, M.; Seiya, Y.; Sekiguchi, T.; Sekiya, H.; Sgalaberna, D.; Shah, R.; Shaikhiev, A.; Shaker, F.; Shaw, D.; Shiozawa, M.; Shirahige, T.; Short, S.; Smy, M.; Sobczyk, J. T.; Sobel, H.; Sorel, M.; Southwell, L.; Steinmann, J.; Stewart, T.; Stowell, P.; Suda, Y.; Suvorov, S.; Suzuki, A.; Suzuki, S. Y.; Suzuki, Y.; Tacik, R.; Tada, M.; Takeda, A.; Takeuchi, Y.; Tanaka, H. K.; Tanaka, H. A.; Terhorst, D.; Terri, R.; Thakore, T.; Thompson, L. F.; Tobayama, S.; Toki, W.; Tomura, T.; Touramanis, C.; Tsukamoto, T.; Tzanov, M.; Uchida, Y.; Vagins, M.; Vallari, Z.; Vasseur, G.; Vladisavljevic, T.; Wachala, T.; Walter, C. W.; Wark, D.; Wascko, M. O.; Weber, A.; Wendell, R.; Wilkes, R. J.; Wilking, M. J.; Wilkinson, C.; Wilson, J. R.; Wilson, R. J.; Wret, C.; Yamada, Y.; Yamamoto, K.; Yamamoto, M.; Yanagisawa, C.; Yano, T.; Yen, S.; Yershov, N.; Yokoyama, M.; Yoshida, K.; Yuan, T.; Yu, M.; Zalewska, A.; Zalipska, J.; Zambelli, L.; Zaremba, K.; Ziembicki, M.; Zimmerman, E. D.; Zito, M.; Żmuda, J.; T2K Collaboration

2017-04-01

T2K reports its first results in the search for C P violation in neutrino oscillations using appearance and disappearance channels for neutrino- and antineutrino-mode beams. The data include all runs from January 2010 to May 2016 and comprise 7.482 ×1 020 protons on target in neutrino mode, which yielded in the far detector 32 e -like and 135 μ -like events, and 7.471 ×1 020 protons on target in antineutrino mode, which yielded 4 e -like and 66 μ -like events. Reactor measurements of sin22 θ13 have been used as an additional constraint. The one-dimensional confidence interval at 90% for the phase δC P spans the range (-3.13 , -0.39 ) for normal mass ordering. The C P conservation hypothesis (δC P=0 , π ) is excluded at 90% C.L.

Combined Analysis of Neutrino and Antineutrino Oscillations at T2K.

PubMed

Abe, K; Amey, J; Andreopoulos, C; Antonova, M; Aoki, S; Ariga, A; Autiero, D; Ban, S; Barbi, M; Barker, G J; Barr, G; Barry, C; Bartet-Friburg, P; Batkiewicz, M; Berardi, V; Berkman, S; Bhadra, S; Bienstock, S; Blondel, A; Bolognesi, S; Bordoni, S; Boyd, S B; Brailsford, D; Bravar, A; Bronner, C; Buizza Avanzini, M; Calland, R G; Campbell, T; Cao, S; Cartwright, S L; Catanesi, M G; Cervera, A; Checchia, C; Cherdack, D; Chikuma, N; Christodoulou, G; Clifton, A; Coleman, J; Collazuol, G; Coplowe, D; Cudd, A; Dabrowska, A; De Rosa, G; Dealtry, T; Denner, P F; Dennis, S R; Densham, C; Dewhurst, D; Di Lodovico, F; Di Luise, S; Dolan, S; Drapier, O; Duffy, K E; Dumarchez, J; Dziewiecki, M; Emery-Schrenk, S; Ereditato, A; Feusels, T; Finch, A J; Fiorentini, G A; Friend, M; Fujii, Y; Fukuda, D; Fukuda, Y; Galymov, V; Garcia, A; Giganti, C; Gizzarelli, F; Golan, T; Gonin, M; Hadley, D R; Haegel, L; Haigh, M D; Hansen, D; Harada, J; Hartz, M; Hasegawa, T; Hastings, N C; Hayashino, T; Hayato, Y; Helmer, R L; Hillairet, A; Hiraki, T; Hiramoto, A; Hirota, S; Hogan, M; Holeczek, J; Hosomi, F; Huang, K; Ichikawa, A K; Ikeda, M; Imber, J; Insler, J; Intonti, R A; Ishida, T; Ishii, T; Iwai, E; Iwamoto, K; Izmaylov, A; Jamieson, B; Jiang, M; Johnson, S; Jonsson, P; Jung, C K; Kabirnezhad, M; Kaboth, A C; Kajita, T; Kakuno, H; Kameda, J; Karlen, D; Katori, T; Kearns, E; Khabibullin, M; Khotjantsev, A; Kim, H; Kim, J; King, S; Kisiel, J; Knight, A; Knox, A; Kobayashi, T; Koch, L; Koga, T; Konaka, A; Kondo, K; Kormos, L L; Korzenev, A; Koshio, Y; Kowalik, K; Kropp, W; Kudenko, Y; Kurjata, R; Kutter, T; Lagoda, J; Lamont, I; Lamoureux, M; Larkin, E; Lasorak, P; Laveder, M; Lawe, M; Licciardi, M; Lindner, T; Liptak, Z J; Litchfield, R P; Li, X; Longhin, A; Lopez, J P; Lou, T; Ludovici, L; Lu, X; Magaletti, L; Mahn, K; Malek, M; Manly, S; Marino, A D; Martin, J F; Martins, P; Martynenko, S; Maruyama, T; Matveev, V; Mavrokoridis, K; Ma, W Y; Mazzucato, E; McCarthy, M; McCauley, N; McFarland, K S; McGrew, C; Mefodiev, A; Metelko, C; Mezzetto, M; Mijakowski, P; Minamino, A; Mineev, O; Mine, S; Missert, A; Miura, M; Moriyama, S; Mueller, Th A; Myslik, J; Nakadaira, T; Nakahata, M; Nakamura, K G; Nakamura, K; Nakamura, K D; Nakanishi, Y; Nakayama, S; Nakaya, T; Nakayoshi, K; Nantais, C; Nielsen, C; Nirkko, M; Nishikawa, K; Nishimura, Y; Novella, P; Nowak, J; O'Keeffe, H M; Okumura, K; Okusawa, T; Oryszczak, W; Oser, S M; Ovsyannikova, T; Owen, R A; Oyama, Y; Palladino, V; Palomino, J L; Paolone, V; Patel, N D; Paudyal, P; Pavin, M; Payne, D; Perkin, J D; Petrov, Y; Pickard, L; Pickering, L; Pinzon Guerra, E S; Pistillo, C; Popov, B; Posiadala-Zezula, M; Poutissou, J-M; Poutissou, R; Przewlocki, P; Quilain, B; Radermacher, T; Radicioni, E; Ratoff, P N; Ravonel, M; Rayner, M A; Redij, A; Reinherz-Aronis, E; Riccio, C; Rodrigues, P A; Rondio, E; Rossi, B; Roth, S; Rubbia, A; Rychter, A; Sakashita, K; Sánchez, F; Scantamburlo, E; Scholberg, K; Schwehr, J; Scott, M; Seiya, Y; Sekiguchi, T; Sekiya, H; Sgalaberna, D; Shah, R; Shaikhiev, A; Shaker, F; Shaw, D; Shiozawa, M; Shirahige, T; Short, S; Smy, M; Sobczyk, J T; Sobel, H; Sorel, M; Southwell, L; Steinmann, J; Stewart, T; Stowell, P; Suda, Y; Suvorov, S; Suzuki, A; Suzuki, S Y; Suzuki, Y; Tacik, R; Tada, M; Takeda, A; Takeuchi, Y; Tanaka, H K; Tanaka, H A; Terhorst, D; Terri, R; Thakore, T; Thompson, L F; Tobayama, S; Toki, W; Tomura, T; Touramanis, C; Tsukamoto, T; Tzanov, M; Uchida, Y; Vagins, M; Vallari, Z; Vasseur, G; Vladisavljevic, T; Wachala, T; Walter, C W; Wark, D; Wascko, M O; Weber, A; Wendell, R; Wilkes, R J; Wilking, M J; Wilkinson, C; Wilson, J R; Wilson, R J; Wret, C; Yamada, Y; Yamamoto, K; Yamamoto, M; Yanagisawa, C; Yano, T; Yen, S; Yershov, N; Yokoyama, M; Yoshida, K; Yuan, T; Yu, M; Zalewska, A; Zalipska, J; Zambelli, L; Zaremba, K; Ziembicki, M; Zimmerman, E D; Zito, M; Żmuda, J

2017-04-14

T2K reports its first results in the search for CP violation in neutrino oscillations using appearance and disappearance channels for neutrino- and antineutrino-mode beams. The data include all runs from January 2010 to May 2016 and comprise 7.482×10^{20} protons on target in neutrino mode, which yielded in the far detector 32 e-like and 135  μ-like events, and 7.471×10^{20} protons on target in antineutrino mode, which yielded 4 e-like and 66  μ-like events. Reactor measurements of sin^{2}2θ_{13} have been used as an additional constraint. The one-dimensional confidence interval at 90% for the phase δ_{CP} spans the range (-3.13, -0.39) for normal mass ordering. The CP conservation hypothesis (δ_{CP}=0, π) is excluded at 90% C.L.

Do Generous Unemployment Benefit Programs Reduce Suicide Rates? A State Fixed-Effect Analysis Covering 1968–2008

PubMed Central

Cylus, Jonathan; Glymour, M. Maria; Avendano, Mauricio

2014-01-01

The recent economic recession has led to increases in suicide, but whether US state unemployment insurance programs ameliorate this association has not been examined. Exploiting US state variations in the generosity of benefit programs between 1968 and 2008, we tested the hypothesis that more generous unemployment benefit programs reduce the impact of economic downturns on suicide. Using state linear fixed-effect models, we found a negative additive interaction between unemployment rates and benefits among the US working-age (20–64 years) population (β = −0.57, 95% confidence interval: −0.86, −0.27; P < 0.001). The finding of a negative additive interaction was robust across multiple model specifications. Our results suggest that the impact of unemployment rates on suicide is offset by the presence of generous state unemployment benefit programs, though estimated effects are small in magnitude. PMID:24939978

Incidence of lung cancer among subway drivers in Stockholm.

PubMed

Gustavsson, Per; Bigert, Carolina; Pollán, Marina

2008-07-01

Very high levels of airborne particles have been detected in the subway system in Stockholm. Subway particles are more toxic to DNA in cultured human lung cells than particles from ambient air. This cohort comprised all men in Stockholm County who were gainfully employed in 1970. They were followed for cancer incidence until 1989. Lung cancer cases were identified from the national cancer register. Subway drivers were identified from the census in 1970. The reference cohort comprised all transport and communication workers in Stockholm. There were nine cases of lung cancer among the subway drivers, giving a SIR of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.38-1.56). The lung cancer incidence was not increased among the subway drivers. The study gives some evidence against the hypothesis that subway particles would be more potent in inducing lung cancer than particles in ambient air. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Associations between maternal periconceptional exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and major birth defects.

PubMed

Hoyt, Adrienne T; Canfield, Mark A; Romitti, Paul A; Botto, Lorenzo D; Anderka, Marlene T; Krikov, Sergey V; Tarpey, Morgan K; Feldkamp, Marcia L

2016-11-01

While associations between secondhand smoke and a few birth defects (namely, oral clefts and neural tube defects) have been noted in the scientific literature, to our knowledge, there is no single or comprehensive source of population-based information on its associations with a range of birth defects among nonsmoking mothers. We utilized data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a large population-based multisite case-control study, to examine associations between maternal reports of periconceptional exposure to secondhand smoke in the household or workplace/school and major birth defects. The multisite National Birth Defects Prevention Study is the largest case-control study of birth defects to date in the United States. We selected cases from birth defect groups having >100 total cases, as well as all nonmalformed controls (10,200), from delivery years 1997 through 2009; 44 birth defects were examined. After excluding cases and controls from multiple births and whose mothers reported active smoking or pregestational diabetes, we analyzed data on periconceptional secondhand smoke exposure-encompassing the period 1 month prior to conception through the first trimester. For the birth defect craniosynostosis, we additionally examined the effect of exposure in the second and third trimesters as well due to the potential sensitivity to teratogens for this defect throughout pregnancy. Covariates included in all final models of birth defects with ≥5 exposed mothers were study site, previous live births, time between estimated date of delivery and interview date, maternal age at estimated date of delivery, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, nativity, household income divided by number of people supported by this income, periconceptional alcohol consumption, and folic acid supplementation. For each birth defect examined, we used logistic regression analyses to estimate both crude and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for both isolated and total case groups for various sources of exposure (household only; workplace/school only; household and workplace/school; household or workplace/school). The prevalence of secondhand smoke exposure only across all sources ranged from 12.9-27.8% for cases and 14.5-15.8% for controls. The adjusted odds ratios for any vs no secondhand smoke exposure in the household or workplace/school and isolated birth defects were significantly elevated for neural tube defects (anencephaly: adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.25; and spina bifida: adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.86); orofacial clefts (cleft lip without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.81; cleft lip with or without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.46; cleft palate alone: adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.63); bilateral renal agenesis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.75); amniotic band syndrome-limb body wall complex (adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.51); and atrial septal defects, secundum (adjusted odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.72). There were no significant inverse associations observed. Additional studies replicating the findings are needed to better understand the moderate positive associations observed between periconceptional secondhand smoke and several birth defects in this analysis. Increased odds ratios resulting from chance (eg, multiple comparisons) or recall bias cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

2011-12-01

Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0.204)], respectively. Income elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.098 [95% confidence interval (0.018, 0.178)], 0.136 [95% confidence interval (0.028, 0.245)] and 0.521 [95% confidence interval (0.438, 0.605)], respectively. The aforementioned results are in 2008, which hold similar pattern as results in 2003 as well as results from pooled data of two periods. First, no significant difference is detected between sensitivity of outpatient services and sensitivity of inpatient services, responding to own-price change. Second, inpatient services are substitutes to outpatient services. Third, the growth of inpatient services is faster than the growth in outpatient services in response to income growth. The major findings from this paper suggest refining insurance policy in rural China. First, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, changing outpatient price is at least as effective as changing inpatient price to adjust demand of health care. Second, the current national guideline of healthcare reform to increase the reimbursement rate for inpatient services will crowd out outpatient services; however, we have no evidence about the change in demand for inpatient service if insurance covers outpatient services. Third, a referral system and gate-keeping system should be established to guide rural patients to utilize outpatient service. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A test of the reward-value hypothesis.

PubMed

Smith, Alexandra E; Dalecki, Stefan J; Crystal, Jonathon D

2017-03-01

Rats retain source memory (memory for the origin of information) over a retention interval of at least 1 week, whereas their spatial working memory (radial maze locations) decays within approximately 1 day. We have argued that different forgetting functions dissociate memory systems. However, the two tasks, in our previous work, used different reward values. The source memory task used multiple pellets of a preferred food flavor (chocolate), whereas the spatial working memory task provided access to a single pellet of standard chow-flavored food at each location. Thus, according to the reward-value hypothesis, enhanced performance in the source memory task stems from enhanced encoding/memory of a preferred reward. We tested the reward-value hypothesis by using a standard 8-arm radial maze task to compare spatial working memory accuracy of rats rewarded with either multiple chocolate or chow pellets at each location using a between-subjects design. The reward-value hypothesis predicts superior accuracy for high-valued rewards. We documented equivalent spatial memory accuracy for high- and low-value rewards. Importantly, a 24-h retention interval produced equivalent spatial working memory accuracy for both flavors. These data are inconsistent with the reward-value hypothesis and suggest that reward value does not explain our earlier findings that source memory survives unusually long retention intervals.

Confidence limit calculation for antidotal potency ratio derived from lethal dose 50

PubMed Central

Manage, Ananda; Petrikovics, Ilona

2013-01-01

AIM: To describe confidence interval calculation for antidotal potency ratios using bootstrap method. METHODS: We can easily adapt the nonparametric bootstrap method which was invented by Efron to construct confidence intervals in such situations like this. The bootstrap method is a resampling method in which the bootstrap samples are obtained by resampling from the original sample. RESULTS: The described confidence interval calculation using bootstrap method does not require the sampling distribution antidotal potency ratio. This can serve as a substantial help for toxicologists, who are directed to employ the Dixon up-and-down method with the application of lower number of animals to determine lethal dose 50 values for characterizing the investigated toxic molecules and eventually for characterizing the antidotal protections by the test antidotal systems. CONCLUSION: The described method can serve as a useful tool in various other applications. Simplicity of the method makes it easier to do the calculation using most of the programming software packages. PMID:25237618

Pulmonary disease in cystic fibrosis: assessment with chest CT at chest radiography dose levels.

PubMed

Ernst, Caroline W; Basten, Ines A; Ilsen, Bart; Buls, Nico; Van Gompel, Gert; De Wachter, Elke; Nieboer, Koenraad H; Verhelle, Filip; Malfroot, Anne; Coomans, Danny; De Maeseneer, Michel; de Mey, Johan

2014-11-01

To investigate a computed tomographic (CT) protocol with iterative reconstruction at conventional radiography dose levels for the assessment of structural lung abnormalities in patients with cystic fibrosis ( CF cystic fibrosis ). In this institutional review board-approved study, 38 patients with CF cystic fibrosis (age range, 6-58 years; 21 patients <18 years and 17 patients >18 years) underwent investigative CT (at minimal exposure settings combined with iterative reconstruction) as a replacement of yearly follow-up posteroanterior chest radiography. Verbal informed consent was obtained from all patients or their parents. CT images were randomized and rated independently by two radiologists with use of the Bhalla scoring system. In addition, mosaic perfusion was evaluated. As reference, the previous available conventional chest CT scan was used. Differences in Bhalla scores were assessed with the χ(2) test and intraclass correlation coefficients ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient s). Radiation doses for CT and radiography were assessed for adults (>18 years) and children (<18 years) separately by using technical dose descriptors and estimated effective dose. Differences in dose were assessed with the Mann-Whitney U test. The median effective dose for the investigative protocol was 0.04 mSv (95% confidence interval [ CI confidence interval ]: 0.034 mSv, 0.10 mSv) for children and 0.05 mSv (95% CI confidence interval : 0.04 mSv, 0.08 mSv) for adults. These doses were much lower than those with conventional CT (median: 0.52 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.31 mSv, 3.90 mSv] for children and 1.12 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.57 mSv, 3.15 mSv] for adults) and of the same order of magnitude as those for conventional radiography (median: 0.012 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.006 mSv, 0.022 mSv] for children and 0.012 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.005 mSv, 0.031 mSv] for adults). All images were rated at least as diagnostically acceptable. Very good agreement was found in overall Bhalla score ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.96) with regard to the severity of bronchiectasis ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.87) and sacculations and abscesses ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.84). Interobserver agreement was excellent ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.86-1). For patients with CF cystic fibrosis , a dedicated chest CT protocol can replace the two yearly follow-up chest radiographic examinations without major dose penalty and with similar diagnostic quality compared with conventional CT.

Nondepressive Psychosocial Factors and CKD Outcomes in Black Americans.

PubMed

Lunyera, Joseph; Davenport, Clemontina A; Bhavsar, Nrupen A; Sims, Mario; Scialla, Julia; Pendergast, Jane; Hall, Rasheeda; Tyson, Crystal C; Russell, Jennifer St Clair; Wang, Wei; Correa, Adolfo; Boulware, L Ebony; Diamantidis, Clarissa J

2018-02-07

Established risk factors for CKD do not fully account for risk of CKD in black Americans. We studied the association of nondepressive psychosocial factors with risk of CKD in the Jackson Heart Study. We used principal component analysis to identify underlying constructs from 12 psychosocial baseline variables (perceived daily, lifetime, and burden of lifetime discrimination; stress; anger in; anger out; hostility; pessimism; John Henryism; spirituality; perceived social status; and social support). Using multivariable models adjusted for demographics and comorbidity, we examined the association of psychosocial variables with baseline CKD prevalence, eGFR decline, and incident CKD during follow-up. Of 3390 (64%) Jackson Heart Study participants with the required data, 656 (19%) had prevalent CKD. Those with CKD (versus no CKD) had lower perceived daily (mean [SD] score =7.6 [8.5] versus 9.7 [9.0]) and lifetime discrimination (2.5 [2.0] versus 3.1 [2.2]), lower perceived stress (4.2 [4.0] versus 5.2 [4.4]), higher hostility (12.1 [5.2] versus 11.5 [4.8]), higher John Henryism (30.0 [4.8] versus 29.7 [4.4]), and higher pessimism (2.3 [2.2] versus 2.0 [2.1]; all P <0.05). Principal component analysis identified three factors from the 12 psychosocial variables: factor 1, life stressors (perceived discrimination, stress); factor 2, moods (anger, hostility); and, factor 3, coping strategies (John Henryism, spirituality, social status, social support). After adjustments, factor 1 (life stressors) was negatively associated with prevalent CKD at baseline among women only: odds ratio, 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.89). After a median follow-up of 8 years, identified psychosocial factors were not significantly associated with eGFR decline (life stressors: β =0.08; 95% confidence interval, -0.02 to 0.17; moods: β =0.03; 95% confidence interval, -0.06 to 0.13; coping: β =-0.02; 95% confidence interval, -0.12 to 0.08) or incident CKD (life stressors: odds ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 1.29; moods: odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.84 to 1.24; coping: odds ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.11). Greater life stressors were associated with lower prevalence of CKD at baseline in the Jackson Heart Study. However, psychosocial factors were not associated with risk of CKD over a median follow-up of 8 years. This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2018_01_03_CJASNPodcast_18_2_L.mp3. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Depression and Oxidative Stress: Results From a Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

PubMed Central

Palta, Priya; Samuel, Laura J.; Miller, Edgar R.; Szanton, Sarah L.

2014-01-01

Objective To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis that quantitatively tests and summarizes the hypothesis that depression results in elevated oxidative stress and lower antioxidant levels. Methods We performed a meta-analysis of studies that reported an association between depression and oxidative stress and/or antioxidant status markers. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched for articles published from January 1980 through December 2012. A random-effects model, weighted by inverse variance, was performed to pool standard deviation (Cohen’s d) effect size estimates across studies for oxidative stress and antioxidant status measures, separately. Results Twenty-three studies with 4980 participants were included in the meta-analysis. Depression was most commonly measured using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria. A Cohen’s d effect size of 0.55 (95% confidence interval = 0.47–0.63) was found for the association between depression and oxidative stress, indicating a roughly 0.55 of 1-standard-deviation increase in oxidative stress among individuals with depression compared with those without depression. The results of the studies displayed significant heterogeneity (I2 = 80.0%, p < .001). A statistically significant effect was also observed for the association between depression and antioxidant status markers (Cohen’s d = −0.24, 95% confidence interval = −0.33 to −0.15). Conclusions This meta-analysis observed an association between depression and oxidative stress and antioxidant status across many different studies. Differences in measures of depression and markers of oxidative stress and antioxidant status markers could account for the observed heterogeneity. These findings suggest that well-established associations between depression and poor heath outcomes may be mediated by high oxidative stress. PMID:24336428

Depression and oxidative stress: results from a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Palta, Priya; Samuel, Laura J; Miller, Edgar R; Szanton, Sarah L

2014-01-01

To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis that quantitatively tests and summarizes the hypothesis that depression results in elevated oxidative stress and lower antioxidant levels. We performed a meta-analysis of studies that reported an association between depression and oxidative stress and/or antioxidant status markers. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched for articles published from January 1980 through December 2012. A random-effects model, weighted by inverse variance, was performed to pool standard deviation (Cohen's d) effect size estimates across studies for oxidative stress and antioxidant status measures, separately. Twenty-three studies with 4980 participants were included in the meta-analysis. Depression was most commonly measured using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria. A Cohen's d effect size of 0.55 (95% confidence interval = 0.47-0.63) was found for the association between depression and oxidative stress, indicating a roughly 0.55 of 1-standard-deviation increase in oxidative stress among individuals with depression compared with those without depression. The results of the studies displayed significant heterogeneity (I(2) = 80.0%, p < .001). A statistically significant effect was also observed for the association between depression and antioxidant status markers (Cohen's d = -0.24, 95% confidence interval = -0.33 to -0.15). This meta-analysis observed an association between depression and oxidative stress and antioxidant status across many different studies. Differences in measures of depression and markers of oxidative stress and antioxidant status markers could account for the observed heterogeneity. These findings suggest that well-established associations between depression and poor heath outcomes may be mediated by high oxidative stress.

Purpose in Life and Cerebral Infarcts in Community Dwelling Older Persons

PubMed Central

Yu, Lei; Boyle, Patricia A.; Wilson, Robert S.; Levine, Steven R.; Schneider, Julie A.; Bennett, David A.

2015-01-01

Background and Purpose Purpose in life, the sense that life has meaning and direction, is associated with reduced risks of adverse health outcomes. However, it remains unknown whether purpose in life protects against the risk of cerebral infarcts among community-dwelling older persons. We tested the hypothesis that greater purpose in life is associated with lower risk of cerebral infarcts. Methods Participants came from the Rush Memory and Aging Project. Each participant completed a standard measure of purpose in life. Uniform neuropathologic examination identified macroscopic infarcts and microinfarcts, blinded to clinical information. Association of purpose in life with cerebral infarcts was examined in ordinal logistic regression models using a semiquantitative outcome. Results 453 participants were included in the analyses. The mean score on the measure of purpose was 3.5 (Standard Deviation=0.47, range=2.1-5.0). Macroscopic infarcts were found in 154 (34.0 %) persons, and microinfarcts were found in 128 (28.3%) persons. Greater purpose in life was associated with a lower odds of having one or more macroscopic infarcts (Odds Ratio=0.535, 95% Confidence Interval=0.346-0.826, p=.005), but we did not find association with microinfarcts (Odds Ratio=0.780, 95% Confidence Interval=0.495-1.229, p=.283). These results persisted after adjusting for vascular risk factors of body mass index, history of smoking, diabetes, and blood pressure, as well as measures of negative affect, physical activity, and clinical stroke. The association with macroscopic infarcts was driven by lacunar infarcts, and was independent of cerebral atherosclerosis and arteriolosclerosis. Conclusions Purpose in life may affect risk for cerebral infarcts, specifically macroscopic lacunar infarcts. PMID:25791714

Genetic and Environmental Influences on Sleep, Pain, and Depression Symptoms in a Community Sample of Twins.

PubMed

Gasperi, Marianna; Herbert, Matthew; Schur, Ellen; Buchwald, Dedra; Afari, Niloofar

We used quantitative genetic methods to evaluate whether sleep quality, pain, and depression symptoms share a common genetic diathesis, to estimate the genetic and environmental sources of covariance among these symptoms, and to test for possible causal relationships. A community sample of 400 twins from the University of Washington Twin Registry completed standardized self-report questionnaires. We used biometric modeling to assess genetic and environmental contribution to the association between sleep quality measured by the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, pain measured by the Brief Pain Inventory, and depression symptoms measured by the Brief Symptom Inventory. Trivariate Cholesky structural equation models were used to decompose correlations among the phenotypes. Heritability was estimated at 37% (95% confidence interval = 20%-51%) for sleep quality, 25% (9%-41%) for pain, and 39% (22%-53%) for depression. Nonshared environmental influences accounted for the remaining variance. The genetic correlation between sleep quality and pain had an rg value of .69 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.33-0.97), rg value of .56 (95% CI = 0.55-0.98) between pain and depression, and rg value of .61 (95% CI = 0.44-0.88) between depression and sleep quality. Nonshared environmental overlap was present between pain and sleep quality as well as depression and sleep quality. The link between sleep quality, pain, and depression was primarily explained by shared genetic influences. The genetic factors influencing sleep quality and pain were highly correlated even when accounting for depression. Findings support the hypothesis of a genetic link between depression and pain as well as potential causality for the association of sleep quality with pain and depression.

Randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial of an aerosolized β₂-agonist for treatment of acute lung injury.

PubMed

Matthay, Michael A; Brower, Roy G; Carson, Shannon; Douglas, Ivor S; Eisner, Mark; Hite, Duncan; Holets, Steven; Kallet, Richard H; Liu, Kathleen D; MacIntyre, Neil; Moss, Marc; Schoenfeld, David; Steingrub, Jay; Thompson, B Taylor

2011-09-01

β₂-Adrenergic receptor agonists accelerate resolution of pulmonary edema in experimental and clinical studies. This clinical trial was designed to test the hypothesis that an aerosolized β₂-agonist, albuterol, would improve clinical outcomes in patients with acute lung injury (ALI). We conducted a multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial in which 282 patients with ALI receiving mechanical ventilation were randomized to receive aerosolized albuterol (5 mg) or saline placebo every 4 hours for up to 10 days. The primary outcome variable for the trial was ventilator-free days. Ventilator-free days were not significantly different between the albuterol and placebo groups (means of 14.4 and 16.6 d, respectively; 95% confidence interval for the difference, -4.7 to 0.3 d; P = 0.087). Rates of death before hospital discharge were not significantly different between the albuterol and placebo groups (23.0 and 17.7%, respectively; 95%confidence interval for the difference,-4.0 to 14.7%;P = 0.30). In the subset of patients with shock before randomization, the number of ventilator-free days was lower with albuterol, although mortality was not different. Overall, heart rates were significantly higher in the albuterol group by approximately 4 beats/minute in the first 2 days after randomization, but rates of new atrial fibrillation (10% in both groups) and other cardiac dysrhythmias were not significantly different. These results suggest that aerosolized albuterol does not improve clinical outcomes in patients with ALI. Routine use of β₂-agonist therapy in mechanically ventilated patients with ALI cannot be recommended. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00434993).

Portrayal of alcohol consumption in movies and drinking initiation in low-risk adolescents.

PubMed

Hanewinkel, Reiner; Sargent, James D; Hunt, Kate; Sweeting, Helen; Engels, Rutger C M E; Scholte, Ron H J; Mathis, Federica; Florek, Ewa; Morgenstern, Matthis

2014-06-01

To investigate the hypothesis that exposure to alcohol consumption in movies affects the likelihood that low-risk adolescents will start to drink alcohol. Longitudinal study of 2346 adolescent never drinkers who also reported at baseline intent to not to do so in the next 12 months (mean age 12.9 years, SD = 1.08). Recruitment was carried out in 2009 and 2010 in 112 state-funded schools in Germany, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, and Scotland. Exposure to movie alcohol consumption was estimated from 250 top-grossing movies in each country in the years 2004 to 2009. Multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regressions assessed the relationship between baseline exposure to movie alcohol consumption and initiation of trying alcohol, and binge drinking (≥ 5 consecutive drinks) at follow-up. Overall, 40% of the sample initiated alcohol use and 6% initiated binge drinking by follow-up. Estimated mean exposure to movie alcohol consumption was 3653 (SD = 2448) occurrences. After age, gender, family affluence, school performance, TV screen time, personality characteristics, and drinking behavior of peers, parents, and siblings were controlled for, exposure to each additional 1000 movie alcohol occurrences was significantly associated with increased relative risk for trying alcohol, incidence rate ratio = 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.08; P = .003), and for binge drinking, incidence rate ratio = 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.20; P < .001). Seeing alcohol depictions in movies is an independent predictor of drinking initiation, particularly for more risky patterns of drinking. This result was shown in a heterogeneous sample of European youths who had a low affinity for drinking alcohol at the time of exposure. Copyright © 2014 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Echocardiographic strain and mortality in Black Americans with end-stage renal disease on hemodialysis.

PubMed

Pressman, Gregg S; Seetha Rammohan, Harish Raj; Romero-Corral, Abel; Fumo, Peter; Figueredo, Vincent M; Gorcsan, John

2015-11-15

End-stage renal disease (ESRD) presents a significant health burden and is associated with high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. This is particularly true in African Americans who generally have higher rates of cardiovascular mortality. Outcomes in ESRD are related to extent of cardiovascular disease, but markers for outcome are not clearly established. Global longitudinal strain (GLS) has emerged as an important measure of left ventricular systolic function that is additive to traditional ejection fraction (EF). It can be measured on routine digital echocardiography and is reproducible. This study tested the hypothesis that GLS is associated with mortality in black Americans with ESRD and preserved EF. Forty-eight outpatients undergoing hemodialysis, 59.4 ± 13.3 years, with EF ≥50% were prospectively enrolled. GLS, measured by an offline speckle tracking algorithm, ranged from -8.6% to -22.0% with a mean of -13.4%, substantially below normal (-16% or more negative). The prevalence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction, as determined by GLS, was 89%. Patients were followed for an average of 1.9 years; all-cause mortality was 19% (9 deaths). GLS was significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.30, p = 0.02), whereas EF was not. After adjustment for multiple potential confounders (age, gender, race, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, coronary disease, heart failure, and EF), GLS remained strongly associated with mortality (hazard ratio 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.56, p = 0.002). In conclusion, GLS is an important index in patients with ESRD, which is additive to EF as a marker for mortality in this high-risk group. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Vitamin D Deficiency in Adult Outpatients With Bipolar Disorder or Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Boerman, Remco; Cohen, Dan; Schulte, Peter F J; Nugter, Annet

2016-12-01

Several studies show an association between schizophrenia and low levels of vitamin D. To date, there are only few studies about the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in patients with bipolar disorder. We hypothesized that vitamin D deficiency is less common among patients with bipolar disorder than among patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. A second hypothesis is that vitamin D deficiency is more prevalent among patients with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or bipolar disorders than among the general Dutch population.Most studies have been conducted with hospitalized patients; in this study, we only included outpatients. All outpatients of a center for bipolar disorders and all outpatients of 3 flexible assertive community treatment teams were asked to participate in this cross-sectional study. We included 118 patients with bipolar disorder and 202 patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. Vitamin D levels were deficient in 30.3% (95% confidence interval, 25.5-35.6) of the cases. The type of psychiatric disorder was not a predictor of vitamin D deficiency. The absolute difference in risk of deficiency between the study population and the Dutch Caucasian population was 23.8% (95% confidence interval, 18.3%-29.3%). In this study, vitamin D deficiency was 4.7 times more common among outpatients with bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, or schizoaffective disorder than among the Dutch general population.Given the high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency, we believe that outpatients with bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, or schizoaffective disorder should be considered at risk of having low levels of vitamin D. Annual measurement of vitamin D levels in psychiatric outpatients with these disorders seems to be justified to maintain bone health, muscle strength, and to prevent osteoporosis.

Functional recovery after moderate/severe traumatic brain injury

PubMed Central

Sur, Sandeepa; Raymont, Vanessa; Duckworth, Josh; Kowalski, Robert G.; Efron, David T.; Hui, Xuan; Selvarajah, Shalini; Hambridge, Hali L.; Stevens, Robert D.

2014-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the hypothesis that educational attainment, a marker of cognitive reserve, is a predictor of disability-free recovery (DFR) after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Methods: Retrospective study of the TBI Model Systems Database, a prospective multicenter cohort funded by the National Institute on Disability and Rehabilitation Research. Patients were included if they were admitted for rehabilitation after moderate to severe TBI, were aged 23 years or older, and had at least 1 year of follow-up. The main outcome measure was DFR 1 year postinjury, defined as a Disability Rating Scale score of zero. Results: Of 769 patients included, 214 (27.8%) achieved DFR at 1 year. In total, 185 patients (24.1%) had <12 years of education, while 390 (50.7%) and 194 patients (25.2%) had 12 to 15 years and ≥16 years of education, respectively. DFR was achieved by 18 patients (9.7%) with <12 years, 120 (30.8%) with 12 to 15 years, and 76 (39.2%) with ≥16 years of education (p < 0.001). In a logistic regression model controlling for age, sex, and injury- and rehabilitation-specific factors, duration of education of ≥12 years was independently associated with DFR (odds ratio 4.74, 95% confidence interval 2.70–8.32 for 12–15 years; odds ratio 7.24, 95% confidence interval 3.96–13.23 for ≥16 years). Conclusion: Educational attainment was a robust independent predictor of 1-year DFR even when adjusting for other prognostic factors. A dose-response relationship was noted, with longer educational exposure associated with increased odds of DFR. This suggests that cognitive reserve could be a factor driving neural adaptation during recovery from TBI. PMID:24759845

Sodium Valproate, a Histone Deacetylase Inhibitor, Is Associated With Reduced Stroke Risk After Previous Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack.

PubMed

Brookes, Rebecca L; Crichton, Siobhan; Wolfe, Charles D A; Yi, Qilong; Li, Linxin; Hankey, Graeme J; Rothwell, Peter M; Markus, Hugh S

2018-01-01

A variant in the histone deacetylase 9 ( HDAC9 ) gene is associated with large artery stroke. Therefore, inhibiting HDAC9 might offer a novel secondary preventative treatment for ischemic stroke. The antiepileptic drug sodium valproate (SVA) is a nonspecific inhibitor of HDAC9. We tested whether SVA therapy given after ischemic stroke was associated with reduced recurrent stroke rate. Data were pooled from 3 prospective studies recruiting patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack and long-term follow-up: the South London Stroke Register, The Vitamins to Prevent Stroke Study, and the Oxford Vascular Study. Patients receiving SVA were compared with patients who received antiepileptic drugs other than SVA using survival analysis and Cox Regression. A total of 11 949 patients with confirmed ischemic event were included. Recurrent stroke rate was lower in patient taking SVA (17 of 168) than other antiepileptic drugs (105 of 530; log-rank survival analysis P =0.002). On Cox regression, controlling for potential cofounders, SVA remained associated with reduced stroke (hazard ratio=0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.3-0.7; P =0.002). A similar result was obtained when patients taking SVA were compared with all cases not taking SVA (Cox regression, hazard ratio=0.47; 95% confidence interval: 0.29-0.77; P =0.003). These results suggest that exposure to SVA, an inhibitor of HDAC, may be associated with a lower recurrent stroke risk although we cannot exclude residual confounding in this study design. This supports the hypothesis that HDAC9 is important in the ischemic stroke pathogenesis and that its inhibition, by SVA or a more specific HDAC9 inhibitor, is worthy of evaluation as a treatment to prevent recurrent ischemic stroke. © 2017 The Authors.

Indoor Tanning and Melanoma Risk: Long-Term Evidence From a Prospective Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Ghiasvand, Reza; Rueegg, Corina S; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Green, Adele C; Lund, Eiliv; Veierød, Marit B

2017-02-01

Indoor tanning is associated with increased risk of melanoma, but most evidence comes from case-control studies. Using data from the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study, a large prospective cohort study, we investigated the associations of age at initiation of indoor tanning, duration of tanning-device use, and dose response with melanoma risk and examined the role of indoor tanning in age at melanoma diagnosis. We used Poisson regression to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for the relationship of indoor tanning to melanoma risk and linear regression to examine age of indoor tanning initiation in relation to age at diagnosis. During follow-up of 141,045 women (1991-2012; mean duration follow-up = 13.7 years), 861 women were diagnosed with melanoma. Melanoma risk increased with increasing cumulative number of tanning sessions (for highest tertile of use vs. never use, adjusted relative risk = 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.63); P-trend = 0.006. Age at initiation <30 years was associated with a higher risk in comparison with never use (adjusted relative risk = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.59). Moreover, women who started indoor tanning prior to 30 years of age were 2.2 years (95% CI: 0.9, 3.4) younger at diagnosis, on average, than never users. This cohort study provides strong evidence of a dose-response association between indoor tanning and risk of melanoma and supports the hypothesis that vulnerability to the harmful effects of indoor tanning is greater at a younger age. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mandatory Physician Reporting of At-Risk Drivers: The Older Driver Example.

PubMed

Agimi, Yll; Albert, Steven M; Youk, Ada O; Documet, Patricia I; Steiner, Claudia A

2018-05-08

In a number of states, physicians are mandated by state law to report at-risk drivers to licensing authorities. Often these patients are older adult drivers who may exhibit unsafe driving behaviors, have functional/cognitive impairments, or are diagnosed with conditions such as Alzheimer's disease and/or seizure disorders. The hypothesis that mandatory physician reporting laws reduce the rate of crash-related hospitalizations among older adult drivers was tested. Using retrospective data (2004-2009), this study identified 176,066 older driver crash-related hospitalizations, from the State Inpatient Databases. Three age-specific negative binomial generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate the effect of physician reporting laws on state's incidence rate of crash-related hospitalizations among older drivers. No evidence was found for an independent association between mandatory physician reporting laws and a lower crash hospitalization rate among any of the age groups examined. The main predictor of interest, mandatory physician reporting, failed to explain any significant variation in crash hospitalization rates, when adjusting for other state-specific laws and characteristics. Vision testing at in-person license renewal was a significant predictor of lower crash hospitalization rate, ranging from incidence rate ratio of 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.62-0.94) among 60- to 64-year olds to 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.67-0.97) among 80- to 84-year olds. Physician reporting laws and age-based licensing requirements are often at odds with older driver's need to maintain independence. This study examines this balance and finds no evidence of the benefits of mandatory physician reporting requirements on driver crash hospitalizations, suggesting that physician mandates do not yet yield significant older driver safety benefits, possibly to the detriment of older driver's well-being and independence.

Helicobacter pylori infection in women with Hashimoto thyroiditis

PubMed Central

Shmuely, Haim; Shimon, Ilan; Gitter, Limor Azulay

2016-01-01

Abstract An association between Helicobacter pylori (H pylori) infection as environmental risk factors for Hashimoto thyroiditis (HT) has been reported. We investigated this hypothesis in women in which HT is more common. Serum immunoglobulin G antibodies against H pylori (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay), CagA protein (Western blot assay), circulating antibodies to thyroid antigens, mainly thyroperoxidase (TPOAbs) and thyroglobulin (TgAbs), were tested in 101 females with HT and 111 non-HT control women without a history of autoimmune disease. Thyroid function, socioeconomic status at childhood, and family history of thyroid malfunction were also studied. Forty-seven HT women (46.5%) tested seropositive for H pylori versus 48 controls (43.2%; P = 0.63). The prevalence of anti-CagA antibodies was 21.3% in HT-infected patients and 31.2% in infected controls (P = 0.352). Women with HT were older than the controls at a significance level of 0.03, and higher prevalence of hypothyroidism (69% vs 13.5%, respectively) and family history of thyroid malfunction (59% vs 34%, respectively) (P < 0.001 in both). Body mass index, diaphragmatic hernia, peptic ulcer, heartburn, use of proton pump inhibitors, childhood socioeconomic background, and crowding index showed no significant difference between HT-positive or negative individuals. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that H pylori seropositivity was not associated with HT (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.57–1.83, P = 0.95) and that family thyroid malfunction was independently associated with an increased risk of HT (odds ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 1.86–6.18, P < 0.001). No association was found between H pylori infection and HT in women. Family history of thyroid malfunction is a risk factor for HT. PMID:27442635

Helicobacter pylori infection in women with Hashimoto thyroiditis: A case-control study.

PubMed

Shmuely, Haim; Shimon, Ilan; Gitter, Limor Azulay

2016-07-01

An association between Helicobacter pylori (H pylori) infection as environmental risk factors for Hashimoto thyroiditis (HT) has been reported. We investigated this hypothesis in women in which HT is more common. Serum immunoglobulin G antibodies against H pylori (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay), CagA protein (Western blot assay), circulating antibodies to thyroid antigens, mainly thyroperoxidase (TPOAbs) and thyroglobulin (TgAbs), were tested in 101 females with HT and 111 non-HT control women without a history of autoimmune disease. Thyroid function, socioeconomic status at childhood, and family history of thyroid malfunction were also studied. Forty-seven HT women (46.5%) tested seropositive for H pylori versus 48 controls (43.2%; P = 0.63). The prevalence of anti-CagA antibodies was 21.3% in HT-infected patients and 31.2% in infected controls (P = 0.352). Women with HT were older than the controls at a significance level of 0.03, and higher prevalence of hypothyroidism (69% vs 13.5%, respectively) and family history of thyroid malfunction (59% vs 34%, respectively) (P < 0.001 in both). Body mass index, diaphragmatic hernia, peptic ulcer, heartburn, use of proton pump inhibitors, childhood socioeconomic background, and crowding index showed no significant difference between HT-positive or negative individuals. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that H pylori seropositivity was not associated with HT (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.57-1.83, P = 0.95) and that family thyroid malfunction was independently associated with an increased risk of HT (odds ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 1.86-6.18, P < 0.001). No association was found between H pylori infection and HT in women. Family history of thyroid malfunction is a risk factor for HT.

Medicaid Coverage Expansions and Cigarette Smoking Cessation Among Low-income Adults.

PubMed

Koma, Jonathan W; Donohue, Julie M; Barry, Colleen L; Huskamp, Haiden A; Jarlenski, Marian

2017-12-01

Expanding Medicaid coverage to low-income adults may have increased smoking cessation through improved access to evidence-based treatments. Our study sought to determine if states' decisions to expand Medicaid increased recent smoking cessation. Using pooled cross-sectional data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey for the years 2011-2015, we examined the association between state Medicaid coverage and the probability of recent smoking cessation among low-income adults without dependent children who were current or former smokers (n=36,083). We used difference-in-differences estimation to examine the effects of Medicaid coverage on smoking cessation, comparing low-income adult smokers in states with Medicaid coverage to comparable adults in states without Medicaid coverage, with ages 18-64 years to those ages 65 years and above. Analyses were conducted for the full sample and stratified by sex. Residence in a state with Medicaid coverage among low-income adult smokers ages 18-64 years was associated with an increase in recent smoking cessation of 2.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 0.25-3.9). In the comparison group of individuals ages 65 years and above, residence in a state with Medicaid coverage expansion was not associated with a change in recent smoking cessation (-0.1 percentage point, 95% confidence interval, -2.1 to 1.8). Similar increases in smoking cessation among those ages 18-64 years were estimated for females and males (1.9 and 2.2 percentage point, respectively). Findings are consistent with the hypothesis that Medicaid coverage expansions may have increased smoking cessation among low-income adults without dependent children via greater access to preventive health care services, including evidence-based smoking cessation services.

Reduction of duration and cost of mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit by use of a ventilatory management team.

PubMed

Cohen, I L; Bari, N; Strosberg, M A; Weinberg, P F; Wacksman, R M; Millstein, B H; Fein, I A

1991-10-01

To test the hypothesis that a formal interdisciplinary team approach to managing ICU patients requiring mechanical ventilation enhances ICU efficiency. Retrospective review with cost-effectiveness analysis. A 20-bed medical-surgical ICU in a 450-bed community referral teaching hospital with a critical care fellowship training program. All patients requiring mechanical ventilation in the ICU were included, comparing patients admitted 1 yr before the inception of the ventilatory management team (group 1) with those patients admitted for 1 yr after the inception of the team (group 2). Group 1 included 198 patients with 206 episodes of mechanical ventilation and group 2 included 165 patients with 183 episodes of mechanical ventilation. A team consisting of an ICU attending physician, nurse, and respiratory therapist was formed to conduct rounds regularly and supervise the ventilatory management of ICU patients who were referred to the critical care service. The two study groups were demographically comparable. However, there were significant reductions in resource use in group 2. The number of days on mechanical ventilation decreased (3.9 days per episode of mechanical ventilation [95% confidence interval 0.3 to 7.5 days]), as did days in the ICU (3.3 days per episode of mechanical ventilation [90% confidence interval 0.3 to 6.3 days]), numbers of arterial blood gases (23.2 per episode of mechanical ventilation; p less than .001), and number of indwelling arterial catheters (1 per episode of mechanical ventilation; p less than .001). The estimated cost savings from these reductions was $1,303 per episode of mechanical ventilation. We conclude that a ventilatory management team, or some component thereof, can significantly and safely expedite the process of "weaning" patients from mechanical ventilatory support in the ICU.

Associations of serum adiponectin with skeletal muscle morphology and insulin sensitivity.

PubMed

Ingelsson, Erik; Arnlöv, Johan; Zethelius, Björn; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Flyvbjerg, Allan; Frystyk, Jan; Berne, Christian; Hänni, Arvo; Lind, Lars; Sundström, Johan

2009-03-01

Skeletal muscle morphology and function are strongly associated with insulin sensitivity. The objective of the study was to test the hypothesis that circulating adiponectin is associated with skeletal muscle morphology and that adiponectin mediates the relation of muscle morphology to insulin sensitivity. This was a cross-sectional investigation of 461 men aged 71 yr, participants of the community-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men study. Measures included serum adiponectin, insulin sensitivity measured with euglycemic insulin clamp technique, and capillary density and muscle fiber composition determined from vastus lateralis muscle biopsies. In multivariable linear regression models (adjusting for age, physical activity, fasting glucose, and pharmacological treatment for diabetes), serum adiponectin levels rose with increasing capillary density (beta, 0.30 per 50 capillaries per square millimeter increase; P = 0.041) and higher proportion of type I muscle fibers (beta, 0.27 per 10% increase; P = 0.036) but declined with a higher proportion of type IIb fibers (beta, -0.39 per 10% increase; P = 0.014). Using bootstrap methods to examine the potential role of adiponectin in associations between muscle morphology and insulin sensitivity and the associations of capillary density (beta difference, 0.041; 95% confidence interval 0.001, 0.085) and proportion of type IIb muscle fibers (beta difference, -0.053; 95% confidence interval -0.107, -0.002) with insulin sensitivity were significantly attenuated when adiponectin was included in the models. Circulating adiponectin concentrations were higher with increasing skeletal muscle capillary density and in individuals with higher proportion of slow oxidative muscle fibers. Furthermore, our results indicate that adiponectin could be a partial mediator of the relations between skeletal muscle morphology and insulin sensitivity.

A Comparison Between the Conventional and the Laryngoscope-Assisted Lightwand Intubation Techniques in Patients With Cervical Immobilization: A Prospective Randomized Study.

PubMed

Kim, Eugene; Kim, Byung-Gun; Lim, Young-Jin; Jeon, Young-Tae; Hwang, Jung-Won; Lee, Seo-Yun; Park, Hee-Pyoung

2017-09-01

Positioning of a lightwand in the midline of the oral cavity can be challenging in patients with cervical immobilization. Direct laryngoscopy may permit the lightwand tip to more easily access the glottic opening. We tested our hypothesis that a laryngoscope-assisted lightwand technique allows more successful endotracheal intubation than does a conventional lightwand approach. A total of 162 patients requiring cervical immobilization during intubation for cervical spine surgery were allocated randomly to 2 groups. The conventional lightwand technique (group C, n = 80) or the laryngoscope-assisted lightwand technique (group L, n = 82) was used for endotracheal intubation. In the group L, a Macintosh laryngoscope was inserted into the oral cavity, advanced until the epiglottis tip was visible, but not used to lift the epiglottis tip. The lightwand tip was placed below the epiglottis under direct view of the epiglottis tip. The primary outcome (the initial intubation success rate) and secondary outcomes (intubation time, hemodynamic changes, and postoperative airway complications) were evaluated. The initial intubation success rate was significantly lower (75% vs 89%; relative risk [95% confidence interval]: 1.2 [1.0-1.4]; P = .034) in group C than group L. The intubation time (22 ± 13 vs 24 ± 12 seconds; mean difference [98.33% confidence interval]: 2.4 [-2.3 to 7.2]; P = .217) did not differ between groups. Postoperative sore throat score, incidences of hypertension and tachycardia, postoperative oral mucosal bleeding, and hoarseness also did not differ between groups. Laryngoscope-assisted lightwand intubation did not increase intubation time, and it increased first attempt intubation rates compared with traditional lightwand intubation in patients requiring cervical immobilization for cervical spine surgery.

Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonism in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Findings From the ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) Registry.

PubMed

Fudim, Marat; Liu, Peter R; Shrader, Peter; Blanco, Rosalia G; Allen, Larry A; Fonarow, Gregg C; Gersh, Bernard J; Kowey, Peter R; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Hylek, Elaine; Go, Alan S; Thomas, Laine; Peterson, Eric D; Piccini, Jonathan P

2018-04-13

Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) therapy may be beneficial to patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but little is known about their use in patients with AF and subsequent outcomes. In order to better understand MRA use and subsequent outcomes, we performed a retrospective cohort study of the contemporary ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) registry. AF progression and cardiovascular outcomes were compared using propensity-matched Cox proportional hazards modeling according to MRA use at baseline and new MRA use at follow-up versus patients with no MRA use. Among 7012 patients with nonpermanent AF, 320 patients were taking MRA at enrollment, and 416 patients initiated MRA use during follow-up. The mean patient age was 72.5 years, 56.3% were men, and 70.4% had paroxysmal AF. Among all patients taking MRAs, 434 (59.0%) had heart failure, 655 (89.0%) had hypertension, and 380 (51.6%) had both. After adjustment, new MRA use was not associated with reduced AF progression (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.58; P =0.27) but showed a trend towards lower risk of stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic embolism (hazard ratio, 0.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.02-1.23; P =0.08). Results were similar for a comparison of new MRA users and baseline MRA users compared with nonusers. In community-based outpatients with AF, the majority of MRA use was for heart failure and hypertension. MRA use also trended towards lower adjusted stroke risk. Future studies should test the hypothesis that MRA use may decrease the risk of stroke in patients with AF. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

The association between dentition status and sarcopenia in Japanese adults aged ≥75 years.

PubMed

Iwasaki, M; Kimura, Y; Ogawa, H; Wada, T; Sakamoto, R; Ishimoto, Y; Fujisawa, M; Okumiya, K; Ansai, T; Miyazaki, H; Matsubayashi, K

2017-01-01

Sarcopenia is an age-related loss of muscle mass and muscle strength or physical performance. There are limited data on the association between oral health and sarcopenia. To test the hypothesis that impaired dentition status was associated with sarcopenia, we conducted a cross-sectional study. A total of 272 community-dwelling Japanese adults aged ≥75 years for whom data were available from comprehensive health examinations conducted in 2015 were included in this study. During dental examination, the number of natural teeth and occluding pairs of natural teeth was counted. In denture wearers, the fit of the removable dentures was also evaluated. The criteria proposed by the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia were used to define sarcopenia. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to evaluate the association between dentition status and the presence of sarcopenia. The prevalence of sarcopenia was 25·7% (70/272). Compared to individuals with ≥10 occluding pairs of natural teeth, those with no occluding pairs of natural teeth had significantly higher risk of having sarcopenia (adjusted odds ratio, 3·37; 95% confidence interval, 1·07-10·61), after adjusting for possible confounders. In addition, compared to individuals with well-fitting dentures, those with ill-fitting dentures had significantly higher risk of having sarcopenia (adjusted odds ratio, 5·07; 95% confidence interval, 1·59-16·19). Our findings suggest that impaired dentition status is significantly associated with sarcopenia among community-dwelling Japanese adults aged ≥75 years. Future longitudinal studies with larger, more diverse populations are necessary to validate our findings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mothers' own recollections of being parented and risk of offspring depression 18 years later: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Mahedy, Liam; Heron, Jon; Stapinski, Lexine A; Pearson, Rebecca M; Evans, Jonathan; Joinson, Carol; Bowes, Lucy; Lewis, Glyn

2014-01-01

Although the relationship between maternal bonding and risk of offspring depression has been demonstrated, it is unclear whether this risk exists for subsequent generations. This study examines the association between maternal reports of her own mother's parenting and later risk of depression in offspring at age 18. This study is based on data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Mothers enrolled in the study, completed the Parental Bonding Instrument to provide an assessment of how they were parented by their own mothers up to the age of 16. Offspring depression was assessed at age of 18 using the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised. The sample comprised 10,405 respondents who had completed the Parental Bonding Instrument during the antenatal period. Results were adjusted for grandmother's history of depression, maternal depression, and a range of socioeconomic variables. A one standard deviation increase in mothers' perceived lack of care in their own childhood was associated with a 16% increase in the odds of offspring depression at age 18 (odds ratios = 1.16, 95% confidence intervals = [1.04, 1.30]). This effect remained following adjustment for potential confounders (odds ratios = 1.14, 95% confidence intervals = [1.02, 1.27]). There was no evidence for an association between overprotection and offspring depression. This study is consistent with the hypothesis that sensitive caregiving is important to future risk of depression across generations. Preventative interventions could be aimed at promoting positive parenting practices, which may help to reduce the risk of depression in subsequent generations. © 2013 The Authors. Depression and Anxiety published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

European ancestry as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation in African Americans.

PubMed

Marcus, Gregory M; Alonso, Alvaro; Peralta, Carmen A; Lettre, Guillaume; Vittinghoff, Eric; Lubitz, Steven A; Fox, Ervin R; Levitzky, Yamini S; Mehra, Reena; Kerr, Kathleen F; Deo, Rajat; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Akylbekova, Meggie; Ellinor, Patrick T; Paltoo, Dina N; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Benjamin, Emelia J; Heckbert, Susan R

2010-11-16

Despite a higher burden of standard atrial fibrillation (AF) risk factors, African Americans have a lower risk of AF than whites. It is unknown whether the higher risk is due to genetic or environmental factors. Because African Americans have varying degrees of European ancestry, we sought to test the hypothesis that European ancestry is an independent risk factor for AF. We studied whites (n=4543) and African Americans (n=822) in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and whites (n=10 902) and African Americans (n=3517) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (n=3517). Percent European ancestry in African Americans was estimated with 1747 ancestry informative markers from the Illumina custom ITMAT-Broad-CARe array. Among African Americans without baseline AF, 120 of 804 CHS participants and 181 of 3517 ARIC participants developed incident AF. A meta-analysis from the 2 studies revealed that every 10% increase in European ancestry increased the risk of AF by 13% (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.23; P=0.007). After adjustment for potential confounders, European ancestry remained a predictor of incident AF in each cohort alone, with a combined estimated hazard ratio for each 10% increase in European ancestry of 1.17 (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.29; P=0.001). A second analysis using 3192 ancestry informative markers from a genome-wide Affymetrix 6.0 array in ARIC African Americans yielded similar results. European ancestry predicted risk of incident AF. Our study suggests that investigating genetic variants contributing to differential AF risk in individuals of African versus European ancestry will be informative.

Dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitor use associated with increased risk of ACE inhibitor-associated angioedema.

PubMed

Brown, Nancy J; Byiers, Stuart; Carr, David; Maldonado, Mario; Warner, Barbara Ann

2009-09-01

Dipeptidyl peptidase-IV (DPP-IV) inhibitors decrease degradation of the incretins. DPP-IV inhibitors also decrease degradation of peptides, such as substance P, that may be involved in the pathogenesis of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor-associated angioedema. This study tested the hypothesis that DPP-IV inhibition affects risk of clinical angioedema, by comparing the incidence of angioedema in patients treated with the DPP-IV inhibitor vildagliptin versus those treated with comparator in Phase III randomized clinical trials. Prospectively defined angioedema-related events were adjudicated in a blinded fashion by an internal medicine adjudication committee and expert reviewer. Concurrent ACE inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker exposure was ascertained from case report forms. Study drug exposure was ascertained from unblinded data from phase III studies. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals comparing angioedema risk in vildagliptin-treated and comparator-treated patients were calculated for the overall population and for patients taking ACE inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers, using both an analysis of pooled data and a meta-analysis (Peto method). Overall, there was no association between vildagliptin use and angioedema. Among individuals taking an ACE inhibitor, however, vildagliptin use was associated with an increased risk of angioedema (14 confirmed cases among 2754 vildagliptin users versus 1 case among 1819 comparator users: odds ratio 4.57 [95% confidence interval 1.57 to 13.28]) in the meta-analysis. Vildagliptin use may be associated with increased risk of angioedema among patients taking ACE inhibitors, although absolute risk is small. Physicians confronted with angioedema in a patient taking an ACE inhibitor and DPP-IV inhibitor should consider this possible drug-drug interaction.

Studying Life Effects & Effectiveness of Palatopharyngoplasty (SLEEP) Study: Subjective Outcomes of Isolated Uvulopalatopharyngoplasty

PubMed Central

Weaver, Edward M.; Woodson, B. Tucker; Yueh, Bevan; Smith, Timothy; Stewart, Michael G.; Hannley, Maureen; Schulz, Kristine; Patel, Milesh M.; Witsell, David

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE To test the hypothesis that uvulopalatopharyngoplasty (UPPP) improves sleep apnea-related quality of life (measured on the Functional Outcomes of Sleep Questionnaire [FOSQ]) at three-month follow-up. Secondary objectives were to test: 1) the stability of the outcomes at six months, 2) the effect on global sleep apnea quality of life change, and 3) the effect on sleep apnea symptoms. STUDY DESIGN Multicenter, prospective, longitudinal case series. SETTING Diverse university- and community-based otolaryngology practices. SUBJECTS AND METHODS The cohort included 68 patients from 17 practices, with a mean±standard deviation age of 44±12 years and mean apnea-hypopnea index 35±32 events/hour. All patients underwent UPPP, defined as an open procedure modifying the shape and size of the palate, pharynx, and uvula, with or without tonsillectomy. Baseline data were collected on-site before surgery, and outcome data were collected by mail three and six months after surgery, with follow-up rates of 51% and 50%, respectively. RESULTS FOSQ scores improved from 14.3±3.4 (scale 5–20, normal ≥17.9) at baseline to 17.2±2.7 at three months (mean improvement 2.9, 95% confidence interval [1.8, 4.0], p<0.001) and 17.5±2.5 at six months (mean improvement 3.1, 95% confidence interval [2.0, 4.2], p<0.001). All quality of life and symptom measures improved significantly at three and six months (all p<0.05). CONCLUSION This prospective, multicenter, university- and community-based study provides evidence that UPPP significantly improves disease-specific quality of life and sleep apnea symptoms in patients with sleep apnea. Validity may be limited by significant loss to follow-up and absence of an unoperated control group. PMID:21493246

Association Between Coronary Artery Disease Genetic Variants and Subclinical Atherosclerosis: An Association Study and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zabalza, Michel; Subirana, Isaac; Lluis-Ganella, Carla; Sayols-Baixeras, Sergi; de Groot, Eric; Arnold, Roman; Cenarro, Ana; Ramos, Rafel; Marrugat, Jaume; Elosua, Roberto

2015-10-01

Recent studies have identified several genetic variants associated with coronary artery disease. Some of these genetic variants are not associated with classical cardiovascular risk factors and the mechanism of such associations is unclear. The aim of the study was to determine whether these genetic variants are related to subclinical atherosclerosis measured by carotid intima media thickness, carotid stiffness, and ankle brachial index. A cross-sectional study nested in the follow-up of the REGICOR cohort was undertaken. The study included 2667 individuals. Subclinical atherosclerosis measurements were performed with standardized methods. Nine genetic variants were genotyped to assess associations with subclinical atherosclerosis, individually and in a weighted genetic risk score. A systematic review and meta-analysis of previous studies that analyzed these associations was undertaken. Neither the selected genetic variants nor the genetic risk score were significantly associated with subclinical atherosclerosis. In the meta-analysis, the rs1746048 (CXCL12; n = 10581) risk allele was directly associated with carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.008; 95% confidence interval, 0.001-0.015), whereas the rs6725887 (WDR12; n = 7801) risk allele was inversely associated with this thickness (β = -0.013; 95% confidence interval, -0.024 to -0.003). The analyzed genetic variants seem to mediate their association with coronary artery disease through different mechanisms. Our results generate the hypothesis that the CXCL12 variant appears to influence coronary artery disease risk through arterial remodeling and thickening, whereas the WDR12 risk variant could be related to higher plaque vulnerability. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Safety of a rapid diagnostic protocol with accelerated stress testing.

PubMed

Soremekun, Olan A; Hamedani, Azita; Shofer, Frances S; O'Conor, Katie J; Svenson, James; Hollander, Judd E

2014-02-01

Most patients at low to intermediate risk for an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) receive a 12- to 24-hour "rule out." Recently, trials have found that a coronary computed tomographic angiography-based strategy is more efficient. If stress testing were performed within the same time frame as coronary computed tomographic angiography, the 2 strategies would be more similar. We tested the hypothesis that stress testing can safely be performed within several hours of presentation. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting to a university hospital from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2011, with potential ACS. Patients placed in a clinical pathway that performed stress testing after 2 negative troponin values 2 hours apart were included. We excluded patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction or with an elevated initial troponin. The main outcome was safety of immediate stress testing defined as the absence of death or acute myocardial infarction (defined as elevated troponin within 24 hours after the test). A total of 856 patients who presented with potential ACS were enrolled in the clinical pathway and included in this study. Patients had a median age of 55.0 (interquartile range, 48-62) years. Chest pain was the chief concern in 86%, and pain was present on arrival in 73% of the patients. There were no complications observed during the stress test. There were 0 deaths (95% confidence interval, 0%-0.46%) and 4 acute myocardial infarctions within 24 hours (0.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.14%-1.27%). The peak troponins were small (0.06, 0.07, 0.07, and 0.19 ng/mL). Patients who present to the ED with potential ACS can safely undergo a rapid diagnostic protocol with stress testing. © 2013.

Perinatal Complications and Aging Indicators by Midlife

PubMed Central

Caspi, Avshalom; Ambler, Antony; Belsky, Daniel W.; Chapple, Simon; Cohen, Harvey Jay; Israel, Salomon; Poulton, Richie; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Rivera, Christine D.; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Wolke, Dieter; Moffitt, Terrie E.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Perinatal complications predict increased risk for morbidity and early mortality. Evidence of perinatal programming of adult mortality raises the question of what mechanisms embed this long-term effect. We tested a hypothesis related to the theory of developmental origins of health and disease: that perinatal complications assessed at birth predict indicators of accelerated aging by midlife. METHODS: Perinatal complications, including both maternal and neonatal complications, were assessed in the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study cohort (N = 1037), a 38-year, prospective longitudinal study of a representative birth cohort. Two aging indicators were assessed at age 38 years, objectively by leukocyte telomere length (TL) and subjectively by perceived facial age. RESULTS: Perinatal complications predicted both leukocyte TL (β = −0.101; 95% confidence interval, −0.169 to −0.033; P = .004) and perceived age (β = 0.097; 95% confidence interval, 0.029 to 0.165; P = .005) by midlife. We repeated analyses with controls for measures of family history and social risk that could predispose to perinatal complications and accelerated aging, and for measures of poor health taken in between birth and the age-38 follow-up. These covariates attenuated, but did not fully explain the associations observed between perinatal complications and aging indicators. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide support for early-life developmental programming by linking newborns’ perinatal complications to accelerated aging at midlife. We observed indications of accelerated aging “inside,” as measured by leukocyte TL, an indicator of cellular aging, and “outside,” as measured by perceived age, an indicator of declining tissue integrity. A better understanding of mechanisms underlying perinatal programming of adult aging is needed. PMID:25349321

Body Mass Index and Physical Activity at Different Ages and Risk of Multiple Myeloma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Jonathan N.; Moore, Steven C.; Lim, Unhee; Park, Yikyung; Baris, Dalsu; Hollenbeck, Albert R.; Matthews, Charles E.; Gibson, Todd M.; Hartge, Patricia; Purdue, Mark P.

2013-01-01

Several studies have reported an increased risk of multiple myeloma associated with excess body weight. We investigated the risk of multiple myeloma in relation to separate measures of adiposity and energy balance at different ages in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study, a large prospective cohort study in the United States. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire (1995–1996; n = 485,049), and a subset of participants completed a second questionnaire (1996–1997; n = 305,618) in which we solicited more detailed exposure information. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for the risk of multiple myeloma (overall, n = 813; subset, n = 489) in relation to several measures of obesity and leisure time physical activity. Multiple myeloma risk was associated with increasing body mass index (BMI) at cohort entry (per 5-kg/m2 increase, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.22); similar associations were observed for BMI at age 50 years (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.28), age 35 years (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.36), and age 18 years (HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.32) without adjustment for baseline BMI. Risk of multiple myeloma was not associated with physical activity level at any age. These findings support the hypothesis that excess body weight, both in early adulthood and later in life, is a risk factor for multiple myeloma and suggest that maintaining a healthy body weight throughout life may reduce multiple myeloma risk. PMID:23543160

Association of Neuraxial Anesthesia With Postoperative Venous Thromboembolism After Noncardiac Surgery: A Propensity-Matched Analysis of ACS-NSQIP Database.

PubMed

Turan, Alparslan; Bajracharya, Gausan R; Leung, Steve; Yazici Kara, Merve; Mao, Guangmei; Botsford, Thomas; Ruetzler, Kurt; Maheshwari, Kamal; Ali Sakr Esa, Wael; Elsharkawy, Hesham; Sessler, Daniel I

2018-04-23

Neuraxial anesthesia improves components of the Virchow's triad (hypercoagulability, venous stasis, and endothelial injury) which are key pathogenic contributors to venous thrombosis in surgical patients. However, whether neuraxial anesthesia reduces the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) remain unclear. We therefore tested the primary hypothesis that neuraxial anesthesia reduces the incidence of 30-day VTE in adults recovering from orthopedic surgery. Secondarily, we tested the hypotheses that neuraxial anesthesia reduces 30-day readmission, 30-day mortality, and the duration of postoperative hospitalization. Inpatient orthopedic surgeries from American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2011-2015) in adults lasting more than 1 hour with either neuraxial or general anesthesia were included. Groups were matched 1:1 by propensity score matching for appropriate confounders. Logistic regression model was used to assess the effect of neuraxial anesthesia on 30-day VTE, 30-day mortality, and readmission, while Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to assess its effect on length of stay. Neuraxial anesthesia decreased odds of 30-day VTE (odds ratio 0.85, 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.95; P = .002) corresponding to number-needed-to-treat of 500. Although there was no difference in 30-day mortality, neuraxial anesthesia reduced 30-day readmission (odds ratio 0.90, 98.3% confidence interval, 0.85-0.95; P < .001) corresponding to number-needed-to-treat of 250 and had a shortened hospitalization (2.87 vs 3.11; P < .001). Neuraxial anesthesia appears to provide only weak VTE prophylaxis, but can be offered as an adjuvant to current thromboprophylaxis in high-risk patients.

Thermophilization of adult and juvenile tree communities in the northern tropical Andes.

PubMed

Duque, Alvaro; Stevenson, Pablo R; Feeley, Kenneth J

2015-08-25

Climate change is expected to cause shifts in the composition of tropical montane forests towards increased relative abundances of species whose ranges were previously centered at lower, hotter elevations. To investigate this process of "thermophilization," we analyzed patterns of compositional change over the last decade using recensus data from a network of 16 adult and juvenile tree plots in the tropical forests of northern Andes Mountains and adjacent lowlands in northwestern Colombia. Analyses show evidence that tree species composition is strongly linked to temperature and that composition is changing directionally through time, potentially in response to climate change and increasing temperatures. Mean rates of thermophilization [thermal migration rate (TMR), °C ⋅ y(-1)] across all censuses were 0.011 °C ⋅ y(-1) (95% confidence interval = 0.002-0.022 °C ⋅ y(-1)) for adult trees and 0.027 °C ⋅ y(-1) (95% confidence interval = 0.009-0.050 °C ⋅ y(-1)) for juvenile trees. The fact that thermophilization is occurring in both the adult and juvenile trees and at rates consistent with concurrent warming supports the hypothesis that the observed compositional changes are part of a long-term process, such as global warming, and are not a response to any single episodic event. The observed changes in composition were driven primarily by patterns of tree mortality, indicating that the changes in composition are mostly via range retractions, rather than range shifts or expansions. These results all indicate that tropical forests are being strongly affected by climate change and suggest that many species will be at elevated risk for extinction as warming continues.

Portrayal of Alcohol Consumption in Movies and Drinking Initiation in Low-Risk Adolescents

PubMed Central

Sargent, James D.; Hunt, Kate; Sweeting, Helen; Engels, Rutger C.M.E.; Scholte, Ron H.J.; Mathis, Federica; Florek, Ewa; Morgenstern, Matthis

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the hypothesis that exposure to alcohol consumption in movies affects the likelihood that low-risk adolescents will start to drink alcohol. METHODS: Longitudinal study of 2346 adolescent never drinkers who also reported at baseline intent to not to do so in the next 12 months (mean age 12.9 years, SD = 1.08). Recruitment was carried out in 2009 and 2010 in 112 state-funded schools in Germany, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, and Scotland. Exposure to movie alcohol consumption was estimated from 250 top-grossing movies in each country in the years 2004 to 2009. Multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regressions assessed the relationship between baseline exposure to movie alcohol consumption and initiation of trying alcohol, and binge drinking (≥ 5 consecutive drinks) at follow-up. RESULTS: Overall, 40% of the sample initiated alcohol use and 6% initiated binge drinking by follow-up. Estimated mean exposure to movie alcohol consumption was 3653 (SD = 2448) occurrences. After age, gender, family affluence, school performance, TV screen time, personality characteristics, and drinking behavior of peers, parents, and siblings were controlled for, exposure to each additional 1000 movie alcohol occurrences was significantly associated with increased relative risk for trying alcohol, incidence rate ratio = 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.08; P = .003), and for binge drinking, incidence rate ratio = 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 1.06–1.20; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Seeing alcohol depictions in movies is an independent predictor of drinking initiation, particularly for more risky patterns of drinking. This result was shown in a heterogeneous sample of European youths who had a low affinity for drinking alcohol at the time of exposure. PMID:24799536

Relationship between plethysmographic waveform changes and hemodynamic variables in anesthetized, mechanically ventilated patients undergoing continuous cardiac output monitoring.

PubMed

Thiele, Robert H; Colquhoun, Douglas A; Patrie, James; Nie, Sarah H; Huffmyer, Julie L

2011-12-01

To assess the relation between photoplethysmographically-derived parameters and invasively-determined hemodynamic variables. After induction of anesthesia and placement of a Swan-Ganz CCOmbo catheter, a Nonin OEM III probe was placed on each patient's earlobe. Photoplethysmographic signals were recorded in conjunction with cardiac output. Photoplethysmographic metrics (amplitude of absorbance waveform, maximal slope of absorbance waveform, area under the curve, and width) were calculated offline and compared with invasively determined hemodynamic variables. Subject-specific associations between each dependent and independent variable pair were summarized on a per-subject basis by the nonparametric Spearman rank correlation coefficient. The bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap resampling procedure of Efron and Tibshirani was used to obtain a 95% confidence interval for the median subject-specific correlation coefficient, and Wilcoxon sign-rank tests were conducted to test the null hypothesis that the median of the subject-specific correlation coefficients were equal to 0. University hospital. Eighteen patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Placement of a Swan-Ganz CCOmbo catheter and a Nonin OEM III pulse oximetry probe. There was a positive, statistically significant correlation between stroke volume and width (median correlation coefficient, 0.29; confidence interval, 0.01-0.46; p = 0.034). The concordance between changes in stroke volume and changes in width was 53%. No other correlations achieved statistical significance. This study was unable to reproduce the results of prior studies. Only stroke volume and photoplethysmographic width were correlated in this study; however, the correlation and concordance (based on analysis of a 4-quadrant plot) were too weak to be clinically useful. Future studies in patients undergoing low-to-moderate risk surgery may result in improved correlations and clinical utility. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thermophilization of adult and juvenile tree communities in the northern tropical Andes

PubMed Central

Duque, Alvaro; Stevenson, Pablo R.; Feeley, Kenneth J.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to cause shifts in the composition of tropical montane forests towards increased relative abundances of species whose ranges were previously centered at lower, hotter elevations. To investigate this process of “thermophilization,” we analyzed patterns of compositional change over the last decade using recensus data from a network of 16 adult and juvenile tree plots in the tropical forests of northern Andes Mountains and adjacent lowlands in northwestern Colombia. Analyses show evidence that tree species composition is strongly linked to temperature and that composition is changing directionally through time, potentially in response to climate change and increasing temperatures. Mean rates of thermophilization [thermal migration rate (TMR), °C⋅y−1] across all censuses were 0.011 °C⋅y−1 (95% confidence interval = 0.002–0.022 °C⋅y−1) for adult trees and 0.027 °C⋅y−1 (95% confidence interval = 0.009–0.050 °C⋅y−1) for juvenile trees. The fact that thermophilization is occurring in both the adult and juvenile trees and at rates consistent with concurrent warming supports the hypothesis that the observed compositional changes are part of a long-term process, such as global warming, and are not a response to any single episodic event. The observed changes in composition were driven primarily by patterns of tree mortality, indicating that the changes in composition are mostly via range retractions, rather than range shifts or expansions. These results all indicate that tropical forests are being strongly affected by climate change and suggest that many species will be at elevated risk for extinction as warming continues. PMID:26261350

The Prospective Association of the Diurnal Cortisol Rhythm With Sleep Duration and Perceived Sleeping Problems in Preschoolers: The Generation R Study.

PubMed

Saridjan, Nathalie S; Kocevska, Desana; Luijk, Maartje P C M; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Verhulst, Frank C; Tiemeier, Henning

2017-06-01

Cortisol, the end product of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, plays an important role in modulating sleep. Yet, studies investigating the association between diurnal cortisol rhythm and sleep patterns in young children are scarce. We tested the hypothesis that the diurnal cortisol rhythm is associated with shorter sleep duration and more sleep problems across early childhood. This study was embedded in Generation R, a population-based cohort from fetal life onward. Parents collected saliva samples from their infant at five moments during day 1. In 322 infants aged 12 to 20 months, we determined the diurnal cortisol rhythm by calculating the area under the curve (AUC), the cortisol awakening response (CAR), and the diurnal slope. Sleep duration and sleep behavior were repeatedly assessed across ages of 14 months to 5 years. Generalized estimating equation models were used to assess related cortisol measures to sleep duration and sleep behavior. The diurnal cortisol slope and the CAR, but not the AUC, were associated with sleep duration across childhood. Children with flatter slopes and children with a more positive CAR were more likely to have shorter nighttime sleep duration (β per nmol/L/h slope = -0.12, 95% confidence interval = -0.19 to -0.05, p = .001; β per nmol/L CAR = -0.01, 95% confidence interval = -0.02 to 0.00, p = .04). Cortisol measures did not predict sleep problems. The present study suggests that a flatter diurnal cortisol slope and a more marked morning rise, which can indicate stress (or hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal dysregulation), have a long-term association with sleep regulation.

Concurrency and HIV transmission network characteristics among MSM with recent HIV infection.

PubMed

Pines, Heather A; Wertheim, Joel O; Liu, Lin; Garfein, Richard S; Little, Susan J; Karris, Maile Y

2016-11-28

Sexual partner concurrency is common among MSM and may increase the probability of HIV transmission during recent (acute or early) infection. We examined the relationship between concurrency and HIV transmission network characteristics (proxies for HIV transmission) among MSM with recent HIV infection. Observational study integrating behavioral, clinical, and molecular epidemiology. We inferred a partial HIV transmission network using 986 HIV-1 pol sequences obtained from HIV-infected individuals in San Diego, California (1996-2015). We further analyzed data from 285 recently HIV-infected MSM in the network who provided information on up to three sexual partners in the past 3 months, including the timing of intercourse with each partner. Concurrency was defined as sexual partners overlapping in time. Logistic and negative binomial regressions were used to investigate the link between concurrency and HIV transmission network characteristics (i.e. clustering and degree or number of connections to others in the network) among these MSM. Of recently HIV-infected MSM (n = 285), 54% reported concurrent partnerships and 54% were connected by at least one putative transmission link to others (i.e. clustered) in the network (median degree = 1.0; interquartile range: 0.0-3.0). Concurrency was positively associated with HIV transmission network clustering (adjusted odds ratio = 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.08, 3.10) and degree (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 1.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 2.15). Our findings provide empirical evidence consistent with the hypothesis that concurrency facilitates HIV transmission during recent infection. Interventions to mitigate the impact of concurrency on HIV transmission may help curb the HIV epidemic among MSM.

The Cricoid Force Necessary to Occlude the Esophageal Entrance: Is There a Gender Difference?

PubMed

Zeidan, Ahed M; Salem, M Ramez; Bamadhaj, Munir; Mazoit, Jean-Xavier; Sadek, Hussein; Houjairy, Hassan; Abdulkhaleq, Kamal; Bamadhaj, Nabil

2017-04-01

We tested the hypothesis whether gender differences exist in the applied cricoid force necessary to prevent regurgitation. Real-time visual and dynamic means were used to assess the effectiveness of different applied cricoid forces in occluding the esophageal entrance in men (group 1) and in women (group 2). In anesthetized and paralyzed patients, the glottis and esophageal entrance were visualized with a Glidescope video laryngoscope. Trained operators performed cricoid pressure (CP) and gastric tube insertion trials. Successful gastric tube insertion in the presence of CP was considered ineffective CP, whereas unsuccessful insertion was considered effective CP. The applied cricoid forces were measured with a novel instrument, the cricometer. The first patient in each group received 20 N. The applied cricoid force in successive patients was determined by the response of the previous patient within the same group, using the up-and-down sequential allocation technique. In the 30 men and 30 women who qualified for the study, the median cricoid force (cricoid force = 50) that occluded the esophageal entrance was 30.8 N (95% confidence interval = 28.15-33.5) in men, and 18.7 N in women (95% confidence interval = 17.1-20.3; P < .0001). Patency of the esophageal entrance was observed when CP was not applied and when inadequate forces that allowed successful esophageal cannulation were used. The current study provides evidence that the median force necessary to occlude the esophageal entrance to prevent regurgitation is less in women compared with men. Applying the appropriate cricoid force in women should also decrease airway-related problems that tend to occur with the use of excessive forces. The findings of the current study may only be applicable to patients with normal body habitus.

Female Urethral Diverticulum: Presentation, Diagnosis, and Predictors of Outcomes After Surgery

PubMed Central

El-Nashar, Sherif A.; Singh, Ruchira; Bacon, Melissa M.; Kim-Fine, Shunaha; Occhino, John A.; Gebhart, John B.; Klingele, Christopher J.

2017-01-01

Introduction and Hypothesis To report on clinical presentation, diagnosis, and outcomes after treatment of female urethral diverticulum (UD). Methods Using a record linkage system, women with a new diagnosis of UD at Mayo Clinic from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2011, were identified. The presenting symptoms, clinical characteristics, diagnosis, and management of women presenting with UD were recorded. Outcomes after surgery were assessed using survival analysis. All statistical analyses were 2-sided and P values less than 0.05 were considered significant. Statistical analysis was done using SAS version 9.2 and JMP version 9.0 (SAS Institute Inc.). Results A total of 164 cases were identified. Median age at diagnosis was 46 years (range, 21–83). The most common presenting symptom was recurrent urinary tract infection (98, 59.8%), followed by urinary incontinence (81, 49.4%), dysuria (62, 37.8%), dyspareunia (37, 22.6%), and hematuria (15, 9.1%). Examination revealed vaginal mass in 55 (33.5%) of the women. A significant trend was noted toward an increase in use of both magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography (P < 0.001) along with a progressive decrease in use of urethrogram (P < 0.001) for diagnosis of UD over the years. Among 114 women who underwent surgical treatment for UD, 14(12.3%) women presented with recurrent UD and the 5-year recurrence rate after surgery for UD was 23.4% (95% confidence interval, 13.9–37.0) and a reoperation rate of 17.0% (95% confidence interval, 8.8–30.2) at 5 years. Conclusions Female UD is a rare and unique condition. Clinical presentation is usually nonspecific, and magnetic resonance imaging is commonly used for confirming the diagnosis. Recurrence is not uncommon, and repeat surgical intervention might be needed. PMID:27636213

Randomised controlled trial of homoeopathy versus placebo in perennial allergic rhinitis with overview of four trial series

PubMed Central

Taylor, Morag A; Reilly, David; Llewellyn-Jones, Robert H; McSharry, Charles; Aitchison, Tom C

2000-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that homoeopathy is a placebo by examining its effect in patients with allergic rhinitis and so contest the evidence from three previous trials in this series. Design Randomised, double blind, placebo controlled, parallel group, multicentre study. Setting Four general practices and a hospital ear, nose, and throat outpatient department. Participants 51 patients with perennial allergic rhinitis. Intervention Random assignment to an oral 30c homoeopathic preparation of principal inhalant allergen or to placebo. Main outcome measures Changes from baseline in nasal inspiratory peak flow and symptom visual analogue scale score over third and fourth weeks after randomisation. Results Fifty patients completed the study. The homoeopathy group had a significant objective improvement in nasal airflow compared with the placebo group (mean difference 19.8 l/min, 95% confidence interval 10.4 to 29.1, P=0.0001). Both groups reported improvement in symptoms, with patients taking homoeopathy reporting more improvement in all but one of the centres, which had more patients with aggravations. On average no significant difference between the groups was seen on visual analogue scale scores. Initial aggravations of rhinitis symptoms were more common with homoeopathy than placebo (7 (30%) v 2 (7%), P=0.04). Addition of these results to those of three previous trials (n=253) showed a mean symptom reduction on visual analogue scores of 28% (10.9 mm) for homoeopathy compared with 3% (1.1 mm) for placebo (95% confidence interval 4.2 to 15.4, P=0.0007). Conclusion The objective results reinforce earlier evidence that homoeopathic dilutions differ from placebo. PMID:10948025

A blinded randomised controlled trial to determine the effect of enteric coating on enzyme treatment for canine exocrine pancreatic efficiency.

PubMed

Mas, Aran; Noble, Peter-John M; Cripps, Peter J; Batchelor, Daniel J; Graham, Peter; German, Alexander J

2012-07-28

Enzyme treatment is the mainstay for management of exocrine pancreatic insufficiency (EPI) in dogs. 'Enteric-coated' preparations have been developed to protect the enzyme from degradation in the stomach, but their efficacy has not been critically evaluated. The hypothesis of the current study was that enteric coating would have no effect on the efficacy of pancreatic enzyme treatment for dogs with EPI.Thirty-eight client-owned dogs with naturally occurring EPI were included in this multicentre, blinded, randomised controlled trial. Dogs received either an enteric-coated enzyme preparation (test treatment) or an identical preparation without the enteric coating (control treatment) over a period of 56 days. There were no significant differences in either signalment or cobalamin status (where cobalamin deficient or not) between the dogs on the test and control treatments. Body weight and body condition score increased in both groups during the trial (P<0.001) but the magnitude of increase was greater for the test treatment compared with the control treatment (P<0.001). By day 56, mean body weight increase was 17% (95% confidence interval 11-23%) in the test treatment group and 9% (95% confidence interval 4-15%) in the control treatment group. The dose of enzyme required increased over time (P<0.001) but there was no significant difference between treatments at any time point (P=0.225). Clinical disease severity score decreased over time for both groups (P=0.011) and no difference was noted between groups (P=0.869). No significant adverse effects were reported, for either treatment, for the duration of the trial. Enteric coating a pancreatic enzyme treatment improves response in canine EPI.

Confidence Intervals for the Probability of Superiority Effect Size Measure and the Area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruscio, John; Mullen, Tara

2012-01-01

It is good scientific practice to the report an appropriate estimate of effect size and a confidence interval (CI) to indicate the precision with which a population effect was estimated. For comparisons of 2 independent groups, a probability-based effect size estimator (A) that is equal to the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve…

The bacterial meningitis score to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis in children from Sao Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Mekitarian Filho, Eduardo; Horita, Sérgio Massaru; Gilio, Alfredo Elias; Alves, Anna Cláudia Dominguez; Nigrovic, Lise E

2013-09-01

In a retrospective cohort of 494 children with meningitis in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the Bacterial Meningitis Score identified all the children with bacterial meningitis (sensitivity 100%, 95% confidence interval: 92-100% and negative predictive value 100%, 95% confidence interval: 98-100%). Addition of cerebrospinal fluid lactate to the score did not improve clinical prediction rule performance.

Spacecraft utility and the development of confidence intervals for criticality of anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. E.

1980-01-01

The concept of spacecraft utility, a measure of its performance in orbit, is discussed and its formulation is described. Performance is defined in terms of the malfunctions that occur and the criticality to the mission of these malfunctions. Different approaches to establishing average or expected values of criticality are discussed and confidence intervals are developed for parameters used in the computation of utility.

Prevalence Estimates of Complicated Syphilis.

PubMed

Dombrowski, Julia C; Pedersen, Rolf; Marra, Christina M; Kerani, Roxanne P; Golden, Matthew R

2015-12-01

We reviewed 68 cases of possible neurosyphilis among 573 syphilis cases in King County, WA, from 3rd January 2012 to 30th September 2013; 7.9% (95% confidence interval, 5.8%-10.5%) had vision or hearing changes, and 3.5% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-5.4%) had both symptoms and objective confirmation of complicated syphilis with either abnormal cerebrospinal fluid or an abnormal ophthalmologic examination.

Speech and language adverse effects after thalamotomy and deep brain stimulation in patients with movement disorders: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Alomar, Soha; King, Nicolas K K; Tam, Joseph; Bari, Ausaf A; Hamani, Clement; Lozano, Andres M

2017-01-01

The thalamus has been a surgical target for the treatment of various movement disorders. Commonly used therapeutic modalities include ablative and nonablative procedures. A major clinical side effect of thalamic surgery is the appearance of speech problems. This review summarizes the data on the development of speech problems after thalamic surgery. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using nine databases, including Medline, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. We also checked for articles by searching citing and cited articles. We retrieved studies between 1960 and September 2014. Of a total of 2,320 patients, 19.8% (confidence interval: 14.8-25.9) had speech difficulty after thalamotomy. Speech difficulty occurred in 15% (confidence interval: 9.8-22.2) of those treated with a unilaterally and 40.6% (confidence interval: 29.5-52.8) of those treated bilaterally. Speech impairment was noticed 2- to 3-fold more commonly after left-sided procedures (40.7% vs. 15.2%). Of the 572 patients that underwent DBS, 19.4% (confidence interval: 13.1-27.8) experienced speech difficulty. Subgroup analysis revealed that this complication occurs in 10.2% (confidence interval: 7.4-13.9) of patients treated unilaterally and 34.6% (confidence interval: 21.6-50.4) treated bilaterally. After thalamotomy, the risk was higher in Parkinson's patients compared to patients with essential tremor: 19.8% versus 4.5% in the unilateral group and 42.5% versus 13.9% in the bilateral group. After DBS, this rate was higher in essential tremor patients. Both lesioning and stimulation thalamic surgery produce adverse effects on speech. Left-sided and bilateral procedures are approximately 3-fold more likely to cause speech difficulty. This effect was higher after thalamotomy compared to DBS. In the thalamotomy group, the risk was higher in Parkinson's patients, whereas in the DBS group it was higher in patients with essential tremor. Understanding the pathophysiology of speech disturbance after thalamic procedures is a priority. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Outcomes after helicopter versus ground emergency medical services for major trauma--propensity score and instrumental variable analyses: a retrospective nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Tsuchiya, Asuka; Tsutsumi, Yusuke; Yasunaga, Hideo

2016-11-29

Because of a lack of randomized controlled trials and the methodological weakness of currently available observational studies, the benefits of helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) over ground emergency medical services (GEMS) for major trauma patients remain uncertain. The aim of this retrospective nationwide cohort study was to compare the mortality of adults with serious traumatic injuries who were transported by HEMS and GEMS, and to analyze the effects of HEMS in various subpopulations. Using the Japan Trauma Data Bank, we evaluated all adult patients who had an injury severity score ≥ 16 transported by HEMS or GEMS during the daytime between 2004 and 2014. We compared in-hospital mortality between patients transported by HEMS and GEMS using propensity score matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting and instrumental variable analyses to adjust for measured and unmeasured confounding factors. Eligible patients (n = 21,286) from 192 hospitals included 4128 transported by HEMS and 17,158 transported by GEMS. In the propensity score-matched model, there was a significant difference in the in-hospital mortality between HEMS and GEMS groups (22.2 vs. 24.5%, risk difference -2.3% [95% confidence interval, -4.2 to -0.5]; number needed to treat, 43 [95% confidence interval, 24 to 220]). The inverse probability of treatment weighting (20.8% vs. 23.9%; risk difference, -3.9% [95% confidence interval, -5.7 to -2.1]; number needed to treat, 26 [95% confidence interval, 17 to 48]) and instrumental variable analyses showed similar results (risk difference, -6.5% [95% confidence interval, -9.2 to -3.8]; number needed to treat, 15 [95% confidence interval, 11 to 27]). HEMS transport was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality after falls, compression injuries, severe chest injuries, extremity (including pelvic) injuries, and traumatic arrest on arrival to the emergency department. HEMS was associated with a significantly lower mortality than GEMS in adult patients with major traumatic injuries after adjusting for measured and unmeasured confounders.

Determinants of waterpipe use amongst adolescents in Northern Sweden: a survey of use pattern, risk perception, and environmental factors.

PubMed

Ramji, Rathi; Arnetz, Judy; Nilsson, Maria; Jamil, Hikmet; Norström, Fredrik; Maziak, Wasim; Wiklund, Ywonne; Arnetz, Bengt

2015-09-15

Determinants of waterpipe use in adolescents are believed to differ from those for other tobacco products, but there is a lack of studies of possible social, cultural, or psychological aspects of waterpipe use in this population. This study applied a socioecological model to explore waterpipe use, and its relationship to other tobacco use in Swedish adolescents. A total of 106 adolescents who attended an urban high-school in northern Sweden responded to an anonymous questionnaire. Prevalence rates for waterpipe use were examined in relation to socio-demographics, peer pressure, sensation seeking behavior, harm perception, environmental factors, and depression. Thirty-three percent reported ever having smoked waterpipe (ever use), with 30% having done so during the last 30 days (current use). Among waterpipe ever users, 60% had ever smoked cigarettes in comparison to 32% of non-waterpipe smokers (95% confidence interval 1.4-7.9). The odds of having ever smoked waterpipe were three times higher among male high school seniors as well as students with lower grades. Waterpipe ever users had three times higher odds of having higher levels of sensation-seeking (95% confidence interval 1.2-9.5) and scored high on the depression scales (95% confidence interval 1.6-6.8) than non-users. The odds of waterpipe ever use were four times higher for those who perceived waterpipe products to have pleasant smell compared to cigarettes (95% confidence interval 1.7-9.8). Waterpipe ever users were twice as likely to have seen waterpipe use on television compared to non-users (95% confidence interval 1.1-5.7). The odds of having friends who smoked regularly was eight times higher for waterpipe ever users than non-users (95% confidence interval 2.1-31.2). The current study reports a high use of waterpipe in a select group of students in northern Sweden. The study adds the importance of looking at socioecological determinants of use, including peer pressure and exposure to media marketing, as well as mental health among users.

To be involved or not to be involved: a survey of public preferences for self-involvement in decision-making involving mental capacity (competency) within Europe.

PubMed

Daveson, Barbara A; Bausewein, Claudia; Murtagh, Fliss E M; Calanzani, Natalia; Higginson, Irene J; Harding, Richard; Cohen, Joachim; Simon, Steffen T; Deliens, Luc; Bechinger-English, Dorothee; Hall, Sue; Koffman, Jonathan; Ferreira, Pedro Lopes; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Haugen, Dagny F; Gomes, Barbara

2013-05-01

The Council of Europe has recommended that member states of European Union encourage their citizens to make decisions about their healthcare before they lose capacity to do so. However, it is unclear whether the public wants to make such decisions beforehand. To examine public preferences for self-involvement in end-of-life care decision-making and identify associated factors. A population-based survey with 9344 adults in England, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Across countries, 74% preferred self-involvement when capable; 44% preferred self-involvement when incapable through, for example, a living will. Four factors were associated with a preference for self-involvement across capacity and incapacity scenarios, respectively: higher educational attainment ((odds ratio = 1.93-2.77), (odds ratio = 1.33-1.80)); female gender ((odds ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval = 1.14-1.41), (odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.20-1.42)); younger-middle age ((30-59 years: odds ratio = 1.24-1.40), (50-59 years: odds ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.46)) and valuing quality over quantity of life or valuing both equally ((odds ratio = 1.49-1.58), (odds ratio = 1.35-1.53)). Those with increased financial hardship (odds ratio = 0.64-0.83) and a preference to die in hospital (not a palliative care unit) (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.88), a nursing home or residential care (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.54-0.99) were less likely to prefer self-involvement when capable. For the incapacity scenario, single people were more likely to prefer self-involvement (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval = 1.18-1.53). Self-involvement in decision-making is important to the European public. However, a large proportion of the public prefer to not make decisions about their care in advance of incapacity. Financial hardship, educational attainment, age, and preferences regarding quality and quantity of life require further examination; these factors should be considered in relation to policy.

Practice Patterns and Outcomes for Pemetrexed Plus Platinum Doublet as Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Adenocarcinomas of Lung: Looking Beyond the Usual Paradigm.

PubMed

Noronha, V; Zanwar, S; Joshi, A; Patil, V M; Mahajan, A; Janu, A; Agarwal, J P; Bhargava, P; Kapoor, A; Prabhash, K

2018-01-01

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is the standard of care in non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) with locally advanced N2 disease. There is a scarcity of data for the pemetrexed-platinum regimen as NACT. Also, apart from N2 disease, the role of NACT in locally advanced NSCLCs for tumour downstaging is unclear. Non-metastatic adenocarcinomas of lung treated with pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT were analysed. The patients with locoregionally advanced N2 disease and those who were borderline candidates for upfront definitive treatment were planned for NACT after discussion in a multidisciplinary clinic. In total, four cycles of 3-weekly pemetrexed and platinum were delivered in the combined neoadjuvant and adjuvant setting. A response assessment was carried out using RECIST criteria. Progression-free (PFS) and overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Of 114 patients, 96 evaluable patients received NACT with pemetrexed-platinum. The most common indication for NACT was N2 disease at baseline (46.8%). The objective response rate was 36.4% (95% confidence interval 22-52%), including two complete and 32 partial responses, whereas 12.5% of patients had progressive disease on NACT. The median PFS was 14 months (95% confidence interval 10.7-17.3) and the median overall survival was 22 months (95% confidence interval 15.6-28.4) at a median follow-up of 16 months. There was a significant improvement in the overall survival of patients undergoing definitive therapy versus no definitive therapy (median overall survival 25 months [95% confidence interval 19.6-30.4] versus 12 months [95% confidence interval 3.2-20.7], respectively; P = 0.015, hazard ratio 0.56 [95% confidence interval 0.3-0.9]). Among patients who could not undergo definitive chemoradiation upfront due to dosimetric constraints (n = 34), 24 (70.6%) patients finally underwent definitive therapy after NACT. Pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT seems to be an effective option and many borderline cases, where upfront definitive therapy is not feasible, may become amenable to the same after incorporation of NACT. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Provider use of a participatory decision-making style with youth and caregivers and satisfaction with pediatric asthma visits.

PubMed

Sleath, Betsy; Carpenter, Delesha M; Coyne, Imelda; Davis, Scott A; Hayes Watson, Claire; Loughlin, Ceila E; Garcia, Nacire; Reuland, Daniel S; Tudor, Gail E

2018-01-01

We conducted a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of an asthma question prompt list with video intervention to engage the youth during clinic visits. We examined whether the intervention was associated with 1) providers including youth and caregiver inputs more into asthma treatment regimens, 2) youth and caregivers rating providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style, and 3) youth and caregivers being more satisfied with visits. English- or Spanish-speaking youth aged 11-17 years with persistent asthma and their caregivers were recruited from four pediatric clinics and randomized to the intervention or usual care groups. The youth in the intervention group watched the video with their caregivers on an iPad and completed a one-page asthma question prompt list before their clinic visits. All visits were audiotaped. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data. Forty providers and their patients (n=359) participated in this study. Providers included youth input into the asthma management treatment regimens during 2.5% of visits and caregiver input during 3.3% of visits. The youth in the intervention group were significantly more likely to rate their providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style (odds ratio=1.7, 95% confidence interval=1.1, 2.5). White caregivers were significantly more likely to rate the providers as more participatory (odds ratio=2.3, 95% confidence interval=1.2, 4.4). Youth (beta=4.9, 95% confidence interval=3.3, 6.5) and caregivers (beta=7.5, 95% confidence interval=3.1, 12.0) who rated their providers as being more participatory were significantly more satisfied with their visits. Youth (beta=-1.9, 95% confidence interval=-3.4, -0.4) and caregivers (beta=-8.8, 95% confidence interval=-16.2, -1.3) who spoke Spanish at home were less satisfied with visits. The intervention did not increase the inclusion of youth and caregiver inputs into asthma treatment regimens. However, it did increase the youth's perception of participatory decision-making style of the providers, and this in turn was associated with greater satisfaction.

Clinical impact and predictors of complete ST segment resolution after primary percutaneous coronary intervention: A subanalysis of the ATLANTIC Trial.

PubMed

Fabris, Enrico; van 't Hof, Arnoud; Hamm, Christian W; Lapostolle, Frédéric; Lassen, Jens F; Goodman, Shaun G; Ten Berg, Jurriën M; Bolognese, Leonardo; Cequier, Angel; Chettibi, Mohamed; Hammett, Christopher J; Huber, Kurt; Janzon, Magnus; Merkely, Béla; Storey, Robert F; Zeymer, Uwe; Cantor, Warren J; Tsatsaris, Anne; Kerneis, Mathieu; Diallo, Abdourahmane; Vicaut, Eric; Montalescot, Gilles

2017-08-01

In the ATLANTIC (Administration of Ticagrelor in the catheterization laboratory or in the Ambulance for New ST elevation myocardial Infarction to open the Coronary artery) trial the early use of aspirin, anticoagulation, and ticagrelor coupled with very short medical contact-to-balloon times represent good indicators of optimal treatment of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and an ideal setting to explore which factors may influence coronary reperfusion beyond a well-established pre-hospital system. This study sought to evaluate predictors of complete ST-segment resolution after percutaneous coronary intervention in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients enrolled in the ATLANTIC trial. ST-segment analysis was performed on electrocardiograms recorded at the time of inclusion (pre-hospital electrocardiogram), and one hour after percutaneous coronary intervention (post-percutaneous coronary intervention electrocardiogram) by an independent core laboratory. Complete ST-segment resolution was defined as ≥70% ST-segment resolution. Complete ST-segment resolution occurred post-percutaneous coronary intervention in 54.9% ( n=800/1456) of patients and predicted lower 30-day composite major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (odds ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.65; p<0.01), definite stent thrombosis (odds ratio 0.18, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.88; p=0.03), and total mortality (odds ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.97; p=0.04). In multivariate analysis, independent negative predictors of complete ST-segment resolution were the time from symptoms to pre-hospital electrocardiogram (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.98; p<0.01) and diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.83; p<0.01); pre-hospital ticagrelor treatment showed a favorable trend for complete ST-segment resolution (odds ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.51; p=0.06). This study confirmed that post-percutaneous coronary intervention complete ST-segment resolution is a valid surrogate marker for cardiovascular clinical outcomes. In the current era of ST-elevation myocardial infarction reperfusion, patients' delay and diabetes mellitus are independent predictors of poor reperfusion and need specific attention in the future.

Circulating tocopherols and risk of coronary artery disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Guangxiao; Li, Ying; Chen, Xin; Sun, Hao; Hou, Xiaowen; Shi, Jingpu

2016-05-01

Circulating level of tocopherols was supposed to be associated with risk of coronary artery disease. However, the results from previous studies remain controversial. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis based on observational studies to evaluate the association between circulating tocopherols and coronary artery disease risk for the first time. Meta-analysis. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched to retrieve articles published during January 1995 and May 2015. Articles were included if they provided sufficient information to calculate the weighted mean difference and its corresponding 95% confidence interval. Circulating level of total tocopherols was significantly lower in coronary artery disease patients than that in controls (weighted mean difference -4.33 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -6.74 to -1.91, P < 0.01). However, circulating α-tocopherol alone was not significantly associated with coronary artery disease risk. Results from subgroup analyses showed that a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was merely associated with higher coronary artery disease risk in studies with higher sex ratio in cases (<2, weighted mean difference -0.07 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -1.15 to 1.00, P = 0.90; ≥ 2, weighted mean difference -6.00 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.76 to -2.22, P < 0.01). Similarly, a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was associated with early onset coronary artery disease rather than late onset coronary artery disease (<60 years, weighted mean difference -5.40 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.22 to -1.57, P < 0.01; ≥ 60 years, weighted mean difference -1.37 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -3.48 to 0.74, P = 0.20). We also found some discrepancies in circulating total tocopherols when the studies were stratified by matching status and assay methods. Our findings suggest that a deficiency in circulating total tocopherols might be associated with higher coronary artery disease risk. Whereas circulating α-tocopherol alone could not protect us from developing coronary artery disease. Further prospective studies were warranted to confirm our findings. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Garimella, Pranav S; Jaber, Bertrand L; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M; Sarnak, Mark J

2017-01-06

AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery

PubMed Central

Garimella, Pranav S.; Jaber, Bertrand L.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R.; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. Design, setting, participants, & measurements A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on–pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Results Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Conclusions Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. PMID:27797887

Association of CKD with Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

PubMed Central

Kaier, Klaus; Kaleschke, Gerrit; Gebauer, Katrin; Meyborg, Matthias; Malyar, Nasser M.; Freisinger, Eva; Baumgartner, Helmut; Reinecke, Holger; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Despitethe multiple depicted associations of CKD with reduced cardiovascular and overall prognoses, the association of CKD with outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation has still not been well described. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data from all hospitalized patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in Germany were evaluated regarding influence of CKD, even in the earlier stages, on morbidity, in-hospital outcomes, and costs. Results A total of 28,716 patients were treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. A total of 11,189 (39.0%) suffered from CKD. Patients with CKD were predominantly women; had higher rates of comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, heart failure at New York Heart Association 3/4, peripheral artery disease, and diabetes; and had a 1.3-fold higher estimated logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation value. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with CKD stage ≥3 (up to odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.17; P<0.05), bleeding was independently associated with CKD stage ≥4 (up to odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.47 to 2.24; P<0.001), and AKI was independently associated with CKD stages 3 (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 2.06) and 4 (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.83 both P<0.001). The stroke risk, in contrast, was lower for patients with CKD stages 4 (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.33) and 5 (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.39; both P<0.001). Lengths of hospital stay were, on average, 1.2-fold longer, whereas reimbursements were, on average, only 1.03-fold higher in patients who suffered from CKD. Conclusions This analysis illustrates for the first time on a nationwide basis the association of CKD with adverse outcomes in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Thus, classification of CKD stages before transcatheter aortic valve implantation is important for appropriate risk stratification. PMID:28289067

Association of CKD with Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

PubMed

Lüders, Florian; Kaier, Klaus; Kaleschke, Gerrit; Gebauer, Katrin; Meyborg, Matthias; Malyar, Nasser M; Freisinger, Eva; Baumgartner, Helmut; Reinecke, Holger; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-05-08

Despitethe multiple depicted associations of CKD with reduced cardiovascular and overall prognoses, the association of CKD with outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation has still not been well described. Data from all hospitalized patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in Germany were evaluated regarding influence of CKD, even in the earlier stages, on morbidity, in-hospital outcomes, and costs. A total of 28,716 patients were treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. A total of 11,189 (39.0%) suffered from CKD. Patients with CKD were predominantly women; had higher rates of comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, heart failure at New York Heart Association 3/4, peripheral artery disease, and diabetes; and had a 1.3-fold higher estimated logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation value. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with CKD stage ≥3 (up to odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.17; P <0.05), bleeding was independently associated with CKD stage ≥4 (up to odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.47 to 2.24; P <0.001), and AKI was independently associated with CKD stages 3 (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 2.06) and 4 (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.83 both P <0.001). The stroke risk, in contrast, was lower for patients with CKD stages 4 (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.33) and 5 (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.39; both P <0.001). Lengths of hospital stay were, on average, 1.2-fold longer, whereas reimbursements were, on average, only 1.03-fold higher in patients who suffered from CKD. This analysis illustrates for the first time on a nationwide basis the association of CKD with adverse outcomes in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Thus, classification of CKD stages before transcatheter aortic valve implantation is important for appropriate risk stratification. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Combined metformin-clomiphene in clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Abu Hashim, Hatem; Foda, Osama; Ghayaty, Essam

2015-09-01

Our objective was to compare the effectiveness of metformin plus clomiphene citrate vs. gonadotrophins, laparoscopic ovarian diathermy, aromatase inhibitors, N-acetyl-cysteine and other insulin sensitizers+clomiphene for improving fertility outcomes in women with clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome. PubMed, SCOPUS and CENTRAL databases were searched until April 2014 with the key words: PCOS, polycystic ovary syndrome, metformin, clomiphene citrate, ovulation induction and pregnancy. The search was limited to articles conducted with humans and published in English. The PRISMA statement was followed. Twelve randomized controlled trials (n = 1411 women) were included. Ovulation and clinical pregnancy rates per woman randomized. Compared with gonadotrophins, the metformin+clomiphene combination resulted in significantly fewer ovulations (odds ratio 0.25; 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.41; p < 0.00001, 3 trials, I(2) = 85%, n = 323) and pregnancies (odds ratio 0.45; 95% confidence interval 0.27-0.75; p = 0.002, 3 trials, I(2) = 0%, n = 323). No significant differences were found when metformin+clomiphene was compared with laparoscopic ovarian diathermy (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.47; p = 0.62, 1 trial, n = 282; odds ratio 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.60-1.54; p = 0.88, 2 trials, I(2) = 0%, n = 332, for ovulation and pregnancy rates, respectively). Likewise, no differences were observed in comparison with aromatase inhibitors (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.58-1.34; p = 0.55, 3 trials, I(2) = 3%, n = 409; odds ratio 0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.36; p = 0.50, 2 trials, n = 309, for ovulation and pregnancy rates, respectively). There is evidence for the superiority of gonadotrophins, but the metformin+clomiphene combination is mainly relevant for clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome patients and, if not effective, a next step could be gonadotrophins. More attempts with metformin+clomiphene are only relevant if there is limited access to gonadotrophins. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

A Bayesian bird's eye view of ‘Replications of important results in social psychology’

PubMed Central

Schönbrodt, Felix D.; Yao, Yuling; Gelman, Andrew; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2017-01-01

We applied three Bayesian methods to reanalyse the preregistered contributions to the Social Psychology special issue ‘Replications of Important Results in Social Psychology’ (Nosek & Lakens. 2014 Registered reports: a method to increase the credibility of published results. Soc. Psychol. 45, 137–141. (doi:10.1027/1864-9335/a000192)). First, individual-experiment Bayesian parameter estimation revealed that for directed effect size measures, only three out of 44 central 95% credible intervals did not overlap with zero and fell in the expected direction. For undirected effect size measures, only four out of 59 credible intervals contained values greater than 0.10 (10% of variance explained) and only 19 intervals contained values larger than 0.05. Second, a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis for all 38 t-tests showed that only one out of the 38 hierarchically estimated credible intervals did not overlap with zero and fell in the expected direction. Third, a Bayes factor hypothesis test was used to quantify the evidence for the null hypothesis against a default one-sided alternative. Only seven out of 60 Bayes factors indicated non-anecdotal support in favour of the alternative hypothesis (BF10>3), whereas 51 Bayes factors indicated at least some support for the null hypothesis. We hope that future analyses of replication success will embrace a more inclusive statistical approach by adopting a wider range of complementary techniques. PMID:28280547

[Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

PubMed

Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

2012-04-01

Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

An evolutionary approach to mania studying Sardinian immigrants to Argentina.

PubMed

Carta, Mauro G; Perra, Alessandra; Atzeni, Michela; D'Oca, Silvia; Moro, Maria F; Kurotschka, Peter K; Moro, Daniela; Sancassiani, Federica; Minerba, Luigi; Brasesco, Maria V; Mausel, Gustavo; Nardi, Antonio E; Tondo, Leonardo

2017-01-01

To ascertain lifetime prevalence of positivity to a screening questionnaire for bipolar disorders (BD) in Sardinian immigrants to Argentina and residents of Sardinia and assess whether such positivity affects quality of life (QoL) in either group. Our hypothesis is that screen positivity for BD may be more frequent in immigrants. Observational study. Subjects were randomly selected from the membership lists of associations of Sardinian immigrants in Argentina. A study carried out in Sardinia using the same methodology was used for comparison. The Mood Disorder Questionnaire was used to screen for mania/hypomania and the Short-Form Health Survey-12 to measure QoL. A higher prevalence of manic/hypomanic episodes was found in Sardinian immigrants to Argentina (p < 0.0001; odds ratio = 3.0, 95% confidence interval 1.87-4.77). Positivity at screening was associated with a lower QoL both in Sardinian immigrants to Argentina and in residents of Sardinia. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to show a higher lifetime prevalence of manic/hypomanic episodes in a general-population sample of individuals who migrated to a foreign country. Our results are in agreement with the hypothesis that hyperactive/novelty-seeking features may represent an adaptive substrate in certain conditions of social change.

No association between gender inequality and peak HIV prevalence in developing countries - an ecological study.

PubMed

Kenyon, Chris R; Buyze, Jozefien

2015-01-01

The prevalence of both gender inequality and HIV prevalence vary considerably both within all developing countries and within those in sub-Saharan Africa. We test the hypothesis that the extent of gender inequality is associated with national peak HIV prevalence. Linear regression was used to test the association between national peak HIV prevalence and three markers of gender equality - the gender-related development index (GDI), the gender empowerment measure (GEM), and the gender inequality index (GII). No evidence was found of a positive relationship between gender inequality and HIV prevalence, either in the analyses of all developing countries or those limited to Africa. In the bivariate analyses limited to Africa, there was a positive association between the two measures of gender "equality" and peak HIV prevalence (GDI: coefficient 28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.1-46.8; GEM: coefficient 54.8, 95% CI 20.5-89.1). There was also a negative association between the marker of gender "inequality" and peak HIV prevalence (GII: coefficient -66.9, 95% CI -112.8 to -21.0). These associations all disappeared on multivariate analyses. We could not find any evidence to support the hypothesis that variations in the extent of gender inequality explain variations in HIV prevalence in developing countries.

Associations of High-Grade Glioma With Glioma Risk Alleles and Histories of Allergy and Smoking

PubMed Central

Lachance, Daniel H.; Yang, Ping; Johnson, Derek R.; Decker, Paul A.; Kollmeyer, Thomas M.; McCoy, Lucie S.; Rice, Terri; Xiao, Yuanyuan; Ali-Osman, Francis; Wang, Frances; Stoddard, Shawn M.; Sprau, Debra J.; Kosel, Matthew L.; Wiencke, John K.; Wiemels, Joseph L.; Patoka, Joseph S.; Davis, Faith; McCarthy, Bridget; Rynearson, Amanda L.; Worra, Joel B.; Fridley, Brooke L.; O’Neill, Brian Patrick; Buckner, Jan C.; Il’yasova, Dora; Jenkins, Robert B.; Wrensch, Margaret R.

2011-01-01

Glioma risk has consistently been inversely associated with allergy history but not with smoking history despite putative biologic plausibility. Data from 855 high-grade glioma cases and 1,160 controls from 4 geographic regions of the United States during 1997–2008 were analyzed for interactions between allergy and smoking histories and inherited variants in 5 established glioma risk regions: 5p15.3 (TERT), 8q24.21 (CCDC26/MLZE), 9p21.3 (CDKN2B), 11q23.3 (PHLDB1/DDX6), and 20q13.3 (RTEL1). The inverse relation between allergy and glioma was stronger among those who did not (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.28, 0.58) versus those who did (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.97; Pinteraction = 0.02) carry the 9p21.3 risk allele. However, the inverse association with allergy was stronger among those who carried (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.44, 95% confidence interval: 0.29, 0.68) versus those who did not carry (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.86) the 20q13.3 glioma risk allele, but this interaction was not statistically significant (P = 0.14). No relation was observed between glioma risk and smoking (odds ratio = 0.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.77, 1.10; P = 0.37), and there were no interactions for glioma risk of smoking history with any of the risk alleles. The authors’ observations are consistent with a recent report that the inherited glioma risk variants in chromosome regions 9p21.3 and 20q13.3 may modify the inverse association of allergy and glioma. PMID:21742680

Gastric dilation-volvulus in dogs attending UK emergency-care veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors and survival.

PubMed

O'Neill, D G; Case, J; Boag, A K; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

2017-11-01

To report prevalence, risk factors and clinical outcomes for presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus diagnosed among an emergency-care population of UK dogs. The study used a cross-sectional design using emergency-care veterinary clinical records from the VetCompass Programme spanning September 1, 2012 to February 28, 2014 and risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression modelling. The study population comprised 77,088 dogs attending 50 Vets Now clinics. Overall, 492 dogs had presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus diagnoses, giving a prevalence of 0·64% (95% Confidence interval: 0·58 to 0·70%). Compared with cross-bred dogs, breeds with the highest odds ratios for the diagnosis of presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus were the great Dane (odds ratio: 114·3, 95% Confidence interval 55·1 to 237·1, P<0·001), akita (odds ratio: 84·4, 95% Confidence interval 33·6 to 211·9, P<0·001) and dogue de Bordeaux (odds ratio: 82·9, 95% Confidence interval 39·0 to 176·3, P<0·001). Odds increased as dogs aged up to 12 years and neutered male dogs had 1·3 (95% Confidence interval 1·0 to 1·8, P=0·041) times the odds compared with entire females. Of the cases that were presented alive, 49·7% survived to discharge overall, but 79·3% of surgical cases survived to discharge. Approximately 80% of surgically managed cases survived to discharge. Certain large breeds were highly predisposed. © 2017 British Small Animal Veterinary Association.

Diagnostic accuracy of intracellular mycobacterium tuberculosis detection for tuberculous meningitis.

PubMed

Feng, Guo-dong; Shi, Ming; Ma, Lei; Chen, Ping; Wang, Bing-ju; Zhang, Min; Chang, Xiao-lin; Su, Xiu-chu; Yang, Yi-ning; Fan, Xin-hong; Dai, Wen; Liu, Ting-ting; He, Ying; Bian, Ting; Duan, Li-xin; Li, Jin-ge; Hao, Xiao-ke; Liu, Jia-yun; Xue, Xin; Song, Yun-zhang; Wu, Hai-qin; Niu, Guo-qiang; Zhang, Li; Han, Cui-juan; Lin, Hong; Lin, Zhi-hui; Liu, Jian-jun; Jian, Qian; Zhang, Jin-she; Tian, Ye; Zhou, Bai-yu; Wang, Jing; Xue, Chang-hu; Han, Xiao-fang; Wang, Jian-feng; Wang, Shou-lian; Thwaites, Guy E; Zhao, Gang

2014-02-15

Early diagnosis and treatment of tuberculous meningitis saves lives, but current laboratory diagnostic tests lack sensitivity. We investigated whether the detection of intracellular bacteria by a modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain and early secretory antigen target (ESAT)-6 in cerebrospinal fluid leukocytes improves tuberculous meningitis diagnosis. Cerebrospinal fluid specimens from patients with suspected tuberculous meningitis were stained by conventional Ziehl-Neelsen stain, a modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain involving cytospin slides with Triton processing, and an ESAT-6 immunocytochemical stain. Acid-fast bacteria and ESAT-6-expressing leukocytes were detected by microscopy. All tests were performed prospectively in a central laboratory by experienced technicians masked to the patients' final diagnosis. Two hundred and eighty patients with suspected tuberculous meningitis were enrolled. Thirty-seven had Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultured from cerebrospinal fluid; 40 had a microbiologically confirmed alternative diagnosis; the rest had probable or possible tuberculous meningitis according to published criteria. Against a clinical diagnostic gold standard the sensitivity of conventional Ziehl-Neelsen stain was 3.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.6-6.7%), compared with 82.9% (95% confidence interval, 77.4-87.3%) for modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain and 75.1% (95% confidence interval, 68.8-80.6%) for ESAT-6 immunostain. Intracellular bacteria were seen in 87.8% of the slides positive by the modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain. The specificity of modified Ziehl-Neelsen and ESAT-6 stain was 85.0% (95% confidence interval, 69.4-93.8%) and 90.0% (95% confidence interval, 75.4-96.7%), respectively. Enhanced bacterial detection by simple modification of the Ziehl-Neelsen stain and an ESAT-6 intracellular stain improve the laboratory diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis.

Dietary acid, age, and serum bicarbonate levels among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Amodu, Afolarin; Abramowitz, Matthew K

2013-12-01

Greater dietary acid has been associated with lower serum bicarbonate levels in patients with CKD. Whether this association extends to the general population and if it is modified by age are unknown. This study examined the association of the dietary acid load, estimated by net endogenous acid production, with serum bicarbonate levels in adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004. The mean serum bicarbonate was 24.9 mEq/L (SEM=0.1), and the mean estimated net endogenous acid production was 57.4 mEq/d (SEM=0.4). Serum bicarbonate was linearly associated with age, such that the oldest participants had the highest serum bicarbonate levels. After multivariable adjustment, participants in the highest quartile of net endogenous acid production had 0.40 mEq/L (95% confidence interval, -0.55 to -0.26) lower serum bicarbonate and a 33% (95% confidence interval, 3 to 72) higher likelihood of acidosis compared with those participants in the lowest quartile. There was a significant interaction by age of the association of net endogenous acid production with serum bicarbonate (P=0.005). Among participants 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 years old, those participants in the highest net endogenous acid production quartile had 0.26 (95% confidence interval, -0.49 to -0.03), 0.60 (95% confidence interval, -0.92 to -0.29), and 0.49 (95% confidence interval, -0.84 to -0.14) mEq/L lower serum bicarbonate, respectively, compared with participants in the lowest quartile. Greater dietary acid is associated with lower serum bicarbonate in the general US population, and the magnitude of this association is greater among middle-aged and elderly persons than younger adults.

Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2011-04-15

The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

Comparative factor analysis of the effect of postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition on recovery of right lobe liver donors.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chia-En; Lin, Kuo-Hua; Lin, Chia-Cheng; Hwu, Yueh-Juen; Lin, Ping-Yi; Lin, Hui-Chuan; Ko, Chih-Jan; Wang, Su-Han; Chen, Yao-Li

2015-04-01

Intensive nutritional support can reduce the catabolic response, improve protein synthesis, and promote liver regeneration. This study examined whether postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition may improve recovery and reduce the length of hospital stay in right lobe liver donors. In this retrospective study, we enrolled liver donors with residual liver volume < 50%. Donors were classified into 2 groups: donors who received (n = 44) or did not receive (n = 40) postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition. Liver function tests included alanine aminotransferase and total bilirubin levels, and postoperative complications included pleural effusion, atelectasis, and wound complications. Hospital length of stay was included as a potential risk factor for the evaluation of the effect of postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition on recovery of right lobe liver donors. Male sex (β, 22.04; 95% confidence interval: 6.22 - 37.86) was a significant predictor of changes in postoperative alanine aminotransferase level. Male sex (β, 0.045; 95% confidence interval: 0.16 - 37.86) and receipt of peripheral parenteral nutrition (β, -0.045; 95% confidence interval: -0.72 - 0.17) were significant predictors of changes in total bilirubin level. Postoperative atelectasis (P < .001), pleural effusion (P < .011), and total complications (P = .015) had significantly lower incidence in the peripheral parenteral nutrition than control group. Multivariate logistic regression showed that recipients of peripheral parenteral nutrition (odds ratio, 0.161; 95% confidence interval: 0.043 - 0.598) and age (odds ratio, 0.870; 95% confidence interval: 0.782 - 0.968) were significant preoperative risk factors for postoperative complications. Postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition is associated with a lower incidence of pleural effusion and atelectasis, a more rapid recovery of hyperbilirubinemia, and shorter length of stay in right lobe liver donors.

Intrauterine fetal death and risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery.

PubMed

Larsen, Sandra; Dobbin, Joanna; McCallion, Oliver; Eskild, Anne

2016-12-01

Vaginal delivery is recommended after intrauterine fetal death. However, little is known about the risk of shoulder dystocia in these deliveries. We studied whether intrauterine fetal death increases the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery. In this population-based register study using the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, we included all singleton pregnancies with vaginal delivery of offspring in cephalic presentation in Norway during the period 1967-2012 (n = 2 266 118). Risk of shoulder dystocia was estimated as absolute risk (%) and odds ratio with 95% confidence interval. Adjustment was made for offspring birthweight (in grams). We performed sub-analyses within categories of birthweight (<4000 and ≥4000 g) and in pregnancies with maternal diabetes. Shoulder dystocia occurred in 1.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 0.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.0001) (crude odds ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2-4.9). After adjustment for birthweight, the odds ratio was 5.9 (95% confidence interval 4.7-7.4). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g, shoulder dystocia occurred in 14.6% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 2.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 5.9, 95% confidence interval 4.5-7.9). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g and concurrent maternal diabetes, shoulder dystocia occurred in 57.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and 9.6% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 12.6, 95% confidence interval 5.9-26.9). Intrauterine fetal death increased the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery, and the absolute risk of shoulder dystocia was particularly high if offspring birthweight was high and the mother had diabetes. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology after childbirth - A Croatian longitudinal study.

PubMed

Srkalović Imširagić, Azijada; Begić, Dražen; Šimičević, Livija; Bajić, Žarko

2017-02-01

Following childbirth, a vast number of women experience some degree of mood swings, while some experience symptoms of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder. Using a biopsychosocial model, the primary aim of this study was to identify predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder and its symptomatology following childbirth. This observational, longitudinal study included 372 postpartum women. In order to explore biopsychosocial predictors, participants completed several questionnaires 3-5 days after childbirth: the Impact of Events Scale Revised, the Big Five Inventory, The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, breastfeeding practice and social and demographic factors. Six to nine weeks after childbirth, participants re-completed the questionnaires regarding psychiatric symptomatology and breastfeeding practice. Using a multivariate level of analysis, the predictors that increased the likelihood of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the first study phase were: emergency caesarean section (odds ratio 2.48; confidence interval 1.13-5.43) and neuroticism personality trait (odds ratio 1.12; confidence interval 1.05-1.20). The predictor that increased the likelihood of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the second study phase was the baseline Impact of Events Scale Revised score (odds ratio 12.55; confidence interval 4.06-38.81). Predictors that decreased the likelihood of symptomatology at the second study phase were life in a nuclear family (odds ratio 0.27; confidence interval 0.09-0.77) and life in a city (odds ratio 0.29; confidence interval 0.09-0.94). Biopsychosocial theory is applicable to postpartum psychiatric disorders. In addition to screening for depression amongst postpartum women, there is a need to include other postpartum psychiatric symptomatology screenings in routine practice. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The association between the metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score and pulmonary function in non-smoking adults.

PubMed

Yoon, Hyun; Gi, Mi Young; Cha, Ju Ae; Yoo, Chan Uk; Park, Sang Muk

2018-03-01

This study assessed the association of metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score with the predicted forced vital capacity and predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s) values in Korean non-smoking adults. We analysed data obtained from 6684 adults during the 2013-2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. After adjustment for related variables, metabolic syndrome ( p < 0.001) and metabolic syndrome score ( p < 0.001) were found to be inversely associated with the predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 s values. The odds ratios of restrictive pulmonary disease (the predicted forced vital capacity < 80.0% with forced expiratory volume in 1 s/FVC ⩾ 70.0%) by metabolic syndrome score with metabolic syndrome score 0 as a reference group showed no significance for metabolic syndrome score 1 [1.061 (95% confidence interval, 0.755-1.490)] and metabolic syndrome score 2 [1.247 (95% confidence interval, 0.890-1.747)], but showed significant for metabolic syndrome score 3 [1.433 (95% confidence interval, 1.010-2.033)] and metabolic syndrome score ⩾ 4 [1.760 (95% confidence interval, 1.216-2.550)]. In addition, the odds ratio of restrictive pulmonary disease of the metabolic syndrome [1.360 (95% confidence interval, 1.118-1.655)] was significantly higher than those of non-metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score were inversely associated with the predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 s values in Korean non-smoking adults. In addition, metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score were positively associated with the restrictive pulmonary disease.

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam

PubMed Central

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-01-01

Background To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12–15 years of age in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Design Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants 2238 secondary school children. Methods Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Main Outcome Measures Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. Results The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5–26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8–15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (–0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8–28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0–0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2–1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Conclusions Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. PMID:24299145

High definition versus standard definition white light endoscopy for detecting dysplasia in patients with Barrett's esophagus.

PubMed

Sami, S S; Subramanian, V; Butt, W M; Bejkar, G; Coleman, J; Mannath, J; Ragunath, K

2015-01-01

High-definition endoscopy systems provide superior image resolution. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of high definition compared with standard definition endoscopy system for detecting dysplastic lesions in patients with Barrett's esophagus. A retrospective cohort study of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus undergoing routine surveillance was performed. Data were retrieved from the central hospital electronic database. Procedures performed for non-surveillance indications, Barrett's esophagus Prague C0M1 classification with no specialized intestinal metaplasia on histology, patients diagnosed with any dysplasia or cancer on index endoscopy, and procedures using advanced imaging techniques were excluded. Logistic regression models were constructed to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals comparing outcomes with standard definition and high-definition systems. The high definition was superior to standard definition system in targeted detection of all dysplastic lesions (odds ratio 3.27, 95% confidence interval 1.27-8.40) as well as overall dysplasia detected on both random and target biopsies (odds ratio 2.36, 95% confidence interval 1.50-3.72). More non-dysplastic lesions were detected with the high-definition system (odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.33). There was no difference between high definition and standard definition endoscopy in the overall (random and target) high-grade dysplasia or cancers detected (odds ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.83-1.04). Trainee endoscopists, number of biopsies taken, and male sex were all significantly associated with a higher yield for dysplastic lesions. The use of the high-definition endoscopy system is associated with better targeted detection of any dysplasia during routine Barrett's esophagus surveillance. However, high-definition endoscopy cannot replace random biopsies at present time. © 2014 International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam.

PubMed

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-04-01

To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12-15 years of age in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Prospective, cross-sectional study. 2238 secondary school children. Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5-26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8-15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (-0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8-28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0-0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical & Experimental Ophthalmology published by Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd on behalf of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Impact of Time to Treatment Initiation in Patients with Human Papillomavirus-positive and -negative Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Grønhøj, C; Jensen, D; Dehlendorff, C; Nørregaard, C; Andersen, E; Specht, L; Charabi, B; von Buchwald, C

2018-06-01

The distinct difference in disease phenotype of human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) and -negative (HPV-) oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) patients might also be apparent when assessing the effect of time to treatment initiation (TTI). We assessed the overall survival and progression-free survival (PFS) effect from increasing TTI for HPV+ and HPV- OPSCC patients. We examined patients who received curative-intended therapy for OPSCC in eastern Denmark between 2000 and 2014. TTI was the number of days from diagnosis to the initiation of curative treatment. Overall survival and PFS were measured from the start of treatment and estimated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated with Cox proportional hazard regression. At a median follow-up of 3.6 years (interquartile range 1.86-6.07 years), 1177 patients were included (59% HPV+). In the adjusted analysis for the HPV+ and HPV- patient population, TTI influenced overall survival and PFS, most evident in the HPV- group, where TTI >60 days statistically significantly influenced overall survival but not PFS (overall survival: hazard ratio 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.04-2.45; PFS: hazard ratio 1.46; 95% confidence interval 0.96-2.22). For patients with a TTI >60 days in the HPV+ group, TTI affected overall survival and PFS similarly, with slightly lower hazard ratio estimates of 1.44 (95% confidence interval 0.83-2.51) and 1.15 (95% confidence interval 0.70-1.88), respectively. For patients treated for a HPV+ or HPV- OPSCC, TTI affects outcome, with the strongest effect for overall survival among HPV- patients. Reducing TTI is an important tool to improve the prognosis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Gene polymorphisms in folate metabolizing enzymes in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia: effects on methotrexate-related toxicity and survival

PubMed Central

Ongaro, Alessia; De Mattei, Monica; Della Porta, Matteo Giovanni; Rigolin, GianMatteo; Ambrosio, Cristina; Di Raimondo, Francesco; Pellati, Agnese; Masieri, Federica Francesca; Caruso, Angelo; Catozzi, Linda; Gemmati, Donato

2009-01-01

Background The antifolate agent methotrexate is an important component of maintenance therapy in acute lymphoblastic leukemia, although methotrexate-related toxicity is often a reason for interruption of chemotherapy. Prediction of toxicity is difficult because of inter-individual variability susceptibility to antileukemic agents. Methotrexate interferes with folate metabolism leading to depletion of reduced folates. Design and Methods The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of polymorphisms for folate metabolizing enzymes with respect to toxicity and survival in adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with methotrexate maintenance therapy. To this purpose, we evaluated possible associations between genotype and hematologic and non-hematologic toxicity and effects on survival at 2 years of follow-up in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Results Polymorphisms in the genes encoding for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR 677C>T) and in dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR 19 bp deletion) significantly increased the risk of hepatotoxicity in single (odds ratio 5.23, 95% confidence interval 1.13–21.95 and odds ratio 4.57, 95% confidence interval 1.01–20.77, respectively) and in combined analysis (odds ratio 6.82, 95% confidence interval 1.38–33.59). MTHFR 677C>T also increased the risk of leukopenia and gastrointestinal toxicity, whilst thymidylate synthase 28 bp repeat polymorphism increased the risk of anemia (odds ratio 8.48, 95% confidence interval 2.00–36.09). Finally, patients with MTHFR 677TT had a decreased overall survival rate (hazard ratio 2.37, 95% confidence interval 1.46–8.45). Conclusions Genotyping of folate polymorphisms might be useful in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia to optimize methotrexate therapy, reducing the associated toxicity with possible effects on survival. PMID:19648163

Parental use of sun protection for their children-does skin color matter?

PubMed

Tan, Marcus G; Nag, Shudeshna; Weinstein, Miriam

2018-03-01

Excessive sun exposure during childhood is a risk factor for skin cancer. This study aimed to compare the frequency of ideal sun protection use between parents with lighter- and darker-skinned children and explore their attitudes and beliefs on sun safety and their choice of sun protection. Parents of children aged 6 months to 6 years completed self-administered questionnaires about sun protection practices for their children. Parents assessed their child's Fitzpatrick phototype and were divided into lighter- (Fitzpatrick phototype I-III) and darker-skinned (Fitzpatrick phototype IV-VI) groups. Sun safety guidelines from the Canadian Dermatology Association were used to qualify ideal sun protection. A total of 183 parents were included. Overall, 31 parents (17%) used ideal sun protection for their children. As their children grew older, parents were less likely to use ideal sun protection (odds ratio = 0.69, 95% confidence interval = 0.53-0.90). Parents in the lighter-skinned group were more likely to use ideal sun protection for their children (odds ratio = 7.4, 95% confidence interval = 2.7-20.1), believe that sun exposure was harmful (odds ratio = 17.2, 95% confidence interval = 4.0-74.9), and perceive value in sun protection (odds ratio = 11.4, 95% confidence interval = 3.3-39.0); the darker-skinned group believed that darker skin tones provided more sun protection (odds ratio = 12.4, 95% confidence interval = 6.1-25.4). Ideal parental sun protection efforts are overall low, particularly in parents of darker-skinned children. The identified attitudes toward and beliefs about sun safety may aid in delivery of future sun protection interventions, especially in multiracial populations. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dietary Pattern and Risk of Hodgkin Lymphoma in a Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Epstein, Mara M.; Chang, Ellen T.; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T.; Batista, Julie L.; Ambinder, Richard F.; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E.; Birmann, Brenda M.

2015-01-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997–2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns (“vegetable,” “high meat,” “fruit/low-fat dairy,” “desserts/sweets”) using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. PMID:26182945

Dietary pattern and risk of hodgkin lymphoma in a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Epstein, Mara M; Chang, Ellen T; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T; Batista, Julie L; Ambinder, Richard F; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E; Birmann, Brenda M

2015-09-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997-2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns ("vegetable," "high meat," "fruit/low-fat dairy," "desserts/sweets") using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Educational achievement among long-term survivors of congenital heart defects: a Danish population-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Olsen, Morten; Hjortdal, Vibeke E; Mortensen, Laust H; Christensen, Thomas D; Sørensen, Henrik T; Pedersen, Lars

2011-04-01

Congenital heart defect patients may experience neurodevelopmental impairment. We investigated their educational attainments from basic schooling to higher education. Using administrative databases, we identified all Danish patients with a cardiac defect diagnosis born from 1 January, 1977 to 1 January, 1991 and alive at age 13 years. As a comparison cohort, we randomly sampled 10 persons per patient. We obtained information on educational attainment from Denmark's Database for Labour Market Research. The study population was followed until achievement of educational levels, death, emigration, or 1 January, 2006. We estimated the hazard ratio of attaining given educational levels, conditional on completing preceding levels, using discrete-time Cox regression and adjusting for socio-economic factors. Analyses were repeated for a sub-cohort of patients and controls born at term and without extracardiac defects or chromosomal anomalies. We identified 2986 patients. Their probability of completing compulsory basic schooling was approximately 10% lower than that of control individuals (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.79, ranged from 0.75 to 0.82 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.82). Their subsequent probability of completing secondary school was lower than that of the controls, both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.80) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.86). The probability of attaining a higher degree, conditional on completion of youth education, was affected both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.01) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.92; 95% confidence interval: 0.79-1.07). The probability of educational attainment was reduced among long-term congenital heart defect survivors.

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, W.; Ratkiewicz, A.; Ressler, J. J.

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

A numerical approach to 14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits: best fits and confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaauw, Maarten; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Mauquoy, Dmitri; van der Plicht, Johannes; van Geel, Bas

2003-06-01

14C wiggle-match dating (WMD) of peat deposits uses the non-linear relationship between 14C age and calendar age to match the shape of a sequence of closely spaced peat 14C dates with the 14C calibration curve. A numerical approach to WMD enables the quantitative assessment of various possible wiggle-match solutions and of calendar year confidence intervals for sequences of 14C dates. We assess the assumptions, advantages, and limitations of the method. Several case-studies show that WMD results in more precise chronologies than when individual 14C dates are calibrated. WMD is most successful during periods with major excursions in the 14C calibration curve (e.g., in one case WMD could narrow down confidence intervals from 230 to 36 yr).

Proportion of general factor variance in a hierarchical multiple-component measuring instrument: a note on a confidence interval estimation procedure.

PubMed

Raykov, Tenko; Zinbarg, Richard E

2011-05-01

A confidence interval construction procedure for the proportion of explained variance by a hierarchical, general factor in a multi-component measuring instrument is outlined. The method provides point and interval estimates for the proportion of total scale score variance that is accounted for by the general factor, which could be viewed as common to all components. The approach may also be used for testing composite (one-tailed) or simple hypotheses about this proportion, and is illustrated with a pair of examples. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

2014-05-01

One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input variable of different ANN structures [3]. The performance of each ANN structure is evaluated by the voting analysis based on eleven criteria, which are the root mean square error (RMSE), the correlation index (R), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the mean percentage error (MPE), the mean percentage error (ME), the percentage volume in errors (VE), the percentage error in peak (MF), the normalized mean bias error (NMBE), the normalized root mean bias error (NRMSE), the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) and the modified Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E1). The next day flow for the test set is calculated using the best ANN structure's model. Consequently, the confidence intervals of various confidence levels for training, evaluation and test sets are compared in order to explore the generalisation dynamics of confidence intervals from training and evaluation sets. [1] H.S. Hippert, C.E. Pedreira, R.C. Souza, "Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: A review and evaluation," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 16, no. 1, 2001, pp. 44-55. [2] G. J. Tsekouras, N.E. Mastorakis, F.D. Kanellos, V.T. Kontargyri, C.D. Tsirekis, I.S. Karanasiou, Ch.N. Elias, A.D. Salis, P.A. Kontaxis, A.A. Gialketsi: "Short term load forecasting in Greek interconnected power system using ANN: Confidence Interval using a novel re-sampling technique with corrective Factor", WSEAS International Conference on Circuits, Systems, Electronics, Control & Signal Processing, (CSECS '10), Vouliagmeni, Athens, Greece, December 29-31, 2010. [3] D. Panagoulia, I. Trichakis, G. J. Tsekouras: "Flow Forecasting via Artificial Neural Networks - A Study for Input Variables conditioned on atmospheric circulation", European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2012 (NH1.1 / AS1.16 - Extreme meteorological and hydrological events induced by severe weather and climate change), Vienna, Austria, 22-27 April 2012.

Razonamiento de Estudiantes Universitarios sobre Variabilidad e Intervalos de Confianza en un Contexto Inferencial Informal = University Students' Reasoning on Variability and Confidence Intervals in Inferential Informal Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inzunsa Cazares, Santiago

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a qualitative research with a group of 15 university students of social sciences on informal inferential reasoning developed in a computer environment on concepts involved in the confidence intervals. The results indicate that students developed a correct reasoning about sampling variability and visualized…