Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

Can 3-dimensional power Doppler indices improve the prenatal diagnosis of a potentially morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa?

PubMed

Haidar, Ziad A; Papanna, Ramesha; Sibai, Baha M; Tatevian, Nina; Viteri, Oscar A; Vowels, Patricia C; Blackwell, Sean C; Moise, Kenneth J

2017-08-01

Traditionally, 2-dimensional ultrasound parameters have been used for the diagnosis of a suspected morbidly adherent placenta previa. More objective techniques have not been well studied yet. The objective of the study was to determine the ability of prenatal 3-dimensional power Doppler analysis of flow and vascular indices to predict the morbidly adherent placenta objectively. A prospective cohort study was performed in women between 28 and 32 gestational weeks with known placenta previa. Patients underwent a two-dimensional gray-scale ultrasound that determined management decisions. 3-Dimensional power Doppler volumes were obtained during the same examination and vascular, flow, and vascular flow indices were calculated after manual tracing of the viewed placenta in the sweep; data were blinded to obstetricians. Morbidly adherent placenta was confirmed by histology. Severe morbidly adherent placenta was defined as increta/percreta on histology, blood loss >2000 mL, and >2 units of PRBC transfused. Sensitivities, specificities, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Student t and χ 2 tests, logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristic curves, and intra- and interrater agreements using Kappa statistics were performed. The following results were found: (1) 50 women were studied: 23 had morbidly adherent placenta, of which 12 (52.2%) were severe morbidly adherent placenta; (2) 2-dimensional parameters diagnosed morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity of 82.6% (95% confidence interval, 60.4-94.2), a specificity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 69.7-97.1), a positive predictive value of 86.3% (95% confidence interval, 64.0-96.4), a negative predictive value of 85.7% (95% confidence interval, 66.4-95.3), a positive likelihood ratio of 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-21.9), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.2 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.48); (3) mean values of the vascular index (32.8 ± 7.4) and the vascular flow index (14.2 ± 3.8) were higher in morbidly adherent placenta (P < .001); (4) area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the vascular and vascular flow indices were 0.99 and 0.97, respectively; (5) the vascular index ≥21 predicted morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity and a specificity of 95% (95% confidence interval, 88.2-96.9) and 91%, respectively (95% confidence interval, 87.5-92.4), 92% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 85.5-94.3), 90% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 79.9-95.3), positive likelihood ratio of 10.55 (95% confidence interval, 7.06-12.75), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.13); and (6) for the severe morbidly adherent placenta, 2-dimensional ultrasound had a sensitivity of 33.3% (95% confidence interval, 11.3-64.6), a specificity of 81.8% (95% confidence interval, 47.8-96.8), a positive predictive value of 66.7% (95% confidence interval, 24.1-94.1), a negative predictive value of 52.9% (95% confidence interval, 28.5-76.1), a positive likelihood ratio of 1.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-8.11), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-1.26). A vascular index ≥31 predicted the diagnosis of a severe morbidly adherent placenta with a 100% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 72-100), a 90% specificity (95% confidence interval, 81.7-93.8), an 88% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 55.0-91.3), a 100% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 90.9-100), a positive likelihood ratio of 10.0 (95% confidence interval, 3.93-16.13), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0 (95% confidence interval, 0-0.34). Intrarater and interrater agreements were 94% (P < .001) and 93% (P < .001), respectively. The vascular index accurately predicts the morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa. In addition, 3-dimensional power Doppler vascular and vascular flow indices were more predictive of severe cases of morbidly adherent placenta compared with 2-dimensional ultrasound. This objective technique may limit the variations in diagnosing morbidly adherent placenta because of the subjectivity of 2-dimensional ultrasound interpretations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

PubMed

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

Treesearch

Steve Verrill

2003-01-01

This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

VizieR Online Data Catalog: TROY project. I. (Lillo-Box+, 2018)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillo-Box, J.; Barrado, D.; Figueira, P.; Leleu, A.; Santos, N. C.; Correia, A. C. M.; Robutel, P.; Faria, J. P.

2017-11-01

tablea4.dat: Posterior confidence intervals of the parameters explored to fit the radial velocity data according to equation 9 in the paper. tablea6.dat: Maximum mass of possible trojan bodies for the six tested models assuming their presence. We present the 95% confidence intervals of the mass computed from random samplings of the radial velocity semi-amplitude K2, the inclination i, the eccentricity e (when applicable), and the stellar mass obtained from the literature. (2 data files).

Using a Nonparametric Bootstrap to Obtain a Confidence Interval for Pearson's "r" with Cluster Randomized Data: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagstaff, David A.; Elek, Elvira; Kulis, Stephen; Marsiglia, Flavio

2009-01-01

A nonparametric bootstrap was used to obtain an interval estimate of Pearson's "r," and test the null hypothesis that there was no association between 5th grade students' positive substance use expectancies and their intentions to not use substances. The students were participating in a substance use prevention program in which the unit of…

Estimation of the uncertainty of analyte concentration from the measurement uncertainty.

PubMed

Brown, Simon; Cooke, Delwyn G; Blackwell, Leonard F

2015-09-01

Ligand-binding assays, such as immunoassays, are usually analysed using standard curves based on the four-parameter and five-parameter logistic models. An estimate of the uncertainty of an analyte concentration obtained from such curves is needed for confidence intervals or precision profiles. Using a numerical simulation approach, it is shown that the uncertainty of the analyte concentration estimate becomes significant at the extremes of the concentration range and that this is affected significantly by the steepness of the standard curve. We also provide expressions for the coefficient of variation of the analyte concentration estimate from which confidence intervals and the precision profile can be obtained. Using three examples, we show that the expressions perform well.

Exposure to power frequency electric fields and the risk of childhood cancer in the UK

PubMed Central

Skinner, J; Mee, T J; Blackwell, R P; Maslanyj, M P; Simpson, J; Allen, S G; Day, N E

2002-01-01

The United Kingdom Childhood Cancer Study, a population-based case–control study covering the whole of Great Britain, incorporated a pilot study measuring electric fields. Measurements were made in the homes of 473 children who were diagnosed with a malignant neoplasm between 1992 and 1996 and who were aged 0–14 at diagnosis, together with 453 controls matched on age, sex and geographical location. Exposure assessments comprised resultant spot measurements in the child's bedroom and the family living-room. Temporal stability of bedroom fields was investigated through continuous logging of the 48-h vertical component at the child's bedside supported by repeat spot measurements. The principal exposure metric used was the mean of the pillow and bed centre measurements. For the 273 cases and 276 controls with fully validated measures, comparing those with a measured electric field exposure ⩾20 V m−1 to those in a reference category of exposure <10 V m−1, odds ratios of 1.31 (95% confidence interval 0.68–2.54) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.73–2.39) for total leukaemia, 2.12 (95% confidence interval 0.78–5.78) for central nervous system cancers and 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.77–2.07) for all malignancies were obtained. When considering the 426 cases and 419 controls with no invalid measures, the corresponding odds ratios were 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.49–1.51) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.56–1.54) for total leukaemia, 1.43 (95% confidence interval 0.68–3.02) for central nervous system cancers and 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.59–1.35) for all malignancies. With exposure modelled as a continuous variable, odds ratios for an increase in the principal metric of 10 V m−1 were close to unity for all disease categories, never differing significantly from one. British Journal of Cancer (2002) 87, 1257–1266. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600602 www.bjcancer.com © 2002 Cancer Research UK PMID:12439715

Confidence limit calculation for antidotal potency ratio derived from lethal dose 50

PubMed Central

Manage, Ananda; Petrikovics, Ilona

2013-01-01

AIM: To describe confidence interval calculation for antidotal potency ratios using bootstrap method. METHODS: We can easily adapt the nonparametric bootstrap method which was invented by Efron to construct confidence intervals in such situations like this. The bootstrap method is a resampling method in which the bootstrap samples are obtained by resampling from the original sample. RESULTS: The described confidence interval calculation using bootstrap method does not require the sampling distribution antidotal potency ratio. This can serve as a substantial help for toxicologists, who are directed to employ the Dixon up-and-down method with the application of lower number of animals to determine lethal dose 50 values for characterizing the investigated toxic molecules and eventually for characterizing the antidotal protections by the test antidotal systems. CONCLUSION: The described method can serve as a useful tool in various other applications. Simplicity of the method makes it easier to do the calculation using most of the programming software packages. PMID:25237618

On Latent Change Model Choice in Longitudinal Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Zajacova, Anna

2012-01-01

An interval estimation procedure for proportion of explained observed variance in latent curve analysis is discussed, which can be used as an aid in the process of choosing between linear and nonlinear models. The method allows obtaining confidence intervals for the R[squared] indexes associated with repeatedly followed measures in longitudinal…

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

The statistical significance of error probability as determined from decoding simulations for long codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massey, J. L.

1976-01-01

The very low error probability obtained with long error-correcting codes results in a very small number of observed errors in simulation studies of practical size and renders the usual confidence interval techniques inapplicable to the observed error probability. A natural extension of the notion of a 'confidence interval' is made and applied to such determinations of error probability by simulation. An example is included to show the surprisingly great significance of as few as two decoding errors in a very large number of decoding trials.

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

Estimation of parameters of dose volume models and their confidence limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Luijk, P.; Delvigne, T. C.; Schilstra, C.; Schippers, J. M.

2003-07-01

Predictions of the normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) for the ranking of treatment plans are based on fits of dose-volume models to clinical and/or experimental data. In the literature several different fit methods are used. In this work frequently used methods and techniques to fit NTCP models to dose response data for establishing dose-volume effects, are discussed. The techniques are tested for their usability with dose-volume data and NTCP models. Different methods to estimate the confidence intervals of the model parameters are part of this study. From a critical-volume (CV) model with biologically realistic parameters a primary dataset was generated, serving as the reference for this study and describable by the NTCP model. The CV model was fitted to this dataset. From the resulting parameters and the CV model, 1000 secondary datasets were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. All secondary datasets were fitted to obtain 1000 parameter sets of the CV model. Thus the 'real' spread in fit results due to statistical spreading in the data is obtained and has been compared with estimates of the confidence intervals obtained by different methods applied to the primary dataset. The confidence limits of the parameters of one dataset were estimated using the methods, employing the covariance matrix, the jackknife method and directly from the likelihood landscape. These results were compared with the spread of the parameters, obtained from the secondary parameter sets. For the estimation of confidence intervals on NTCP predictions, three methods were tested. Firstly, propagation of errors using the covariance matrix was used. Secondly, the meaning of the width of a bundle of curves that resulted from parameters that were within the one standard deviation region in the likelihood space was investigated. Thirdly, many parameter sets and their likelihood were used to create a likelihood-weighted probability distribution of the NTCP. It is concluded that for the type of dose response data used here, only a full likelihood analysis will produce reliable results. The often-used approximations, such as the usage of the covariance matrix, produce inconsistent confidence limits on both the parameter sets and the resulting NTCP values.

Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Yunfei

This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

2007-01-01

A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

Statistical inferences with jointly type-II censored samples from two Pareto distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abu-Zinadah, Hanaa H.

2017-08-01

In the several fields of industries the product comes from more than one production line, which is required to work the comparative life tests. This problem requires sampling of the different production lines, then the joint censoring scheme is appeared. In this article we consider the life time Pareto distribution with jointly type-II censoring scheme. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the corresponding approximate confidence intervals as well as the bootstrap confidence intervals of the model parameters are obtained. Also Bayesian point and credible intervals of the model parameters are presented. The life time data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes. Monte Carlo results from simulation studies are presented to assess the performance of our proposed method.

National Practice Patterns of Obtaining Informed Consent for Stroke Thrombolysis.

PubMed

Mendelson, Scott J; Courtney, D Mark; Gordon, Elisa J; Thomas, Leena F; Holl, Jane L; Prabhakaran, Shyam

2018-03-01

No standard approach to obtaining informed consent for stroke thrombolysis with tPA (tissue-type plasminogen activator) currently exists. We aimed to assess current nationwide practice patterns of obtaining informed consent for tPA. An online survey was developed and distributed by e-mail to clinicians involved in acute stroke care. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine independent factors contributing to always obtaining informed consent for tPA. Among 268 respondents, 36.7% reported always obtaining informed consent and 51.8% reported the informed consent process caused treatment delays. Being an emergency medicine physician (odds ratio, 5.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-11.5) and practicing at a nonacademic medical center (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-4.3) were independently associated with always requiring informed consent. The most commonly cited cause of delay was waiting for a patient's family to reach consensus about treatment. Most clinicians always or often require informed consent for stroke thrombolysis. Future research should focus on standardizing content and delivery of tPA information to reduce delays. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Experimental optimization of the number of blocks by means of algorithms parameterized by confidence interval in popcorn breeding.

PubMed

Paula, T O M; Marinho, C D; Amaral Júnior, A T; Peternelli, L A; Gonçalves, L S A

2013-06-27

The objective of this study was to determine the optimal number of repetitions to be used in competition trials of popcorn traits related to production and quality, including grain yield and expansion capacity. The experiments were conducted in 3 environments representative of the north and northwest regions of the State of Rio de Janeiro with 10 Brazilian genotypes of popcorn, consisting by 4 commercial hybrids (IAC 112, IAC 125, Zélia, and Jade), 4 improved varieties (BRS Ângela, UFVM-2 Barão de Viçosa, Beija-flor, and Viçosa) and 2 experimental populations (UNB2U-C3 and UNB2U-C4). The experimental design utilized was a randomized complete block design with 7 repetitions. The Bootstrap method was employed to obtain samples of all of the possible combinations within the 7 blocks. Subsequently, the confidence intervals of the parameters of interest were calculated for all simulated data sets. The optimal number of repetition for all of the traits was considered when all of the estimates of the parameters in question were encountered within the confidence interval. The estimates of the number of repetitions varied according to the parameter estimated, variable evaluated, and environment cultivated, ranging from 2 to 7. It is believed that only the expansion capacity traits in the Colégio Agrícola environment (for residual variance and coefficient of variation), and number of ears per plot, in the Itaocara environment (for coefficient of variation) needed 7 repetitions to fall within the confidence interval. Thus, for the 3 studies conducted, we can conclude that 6 repetitions are optimal for obtaining high experimental precision.

Prediction of the distillation temperatures of crude oils using ¹H NMR and support vector regression with estimated confidence intervals.

PubMed

Filgueiras, Paulo R; Terra, Luciana A; Castro, Eustáquio V R; Oliveira, Lize M S L; Dias, Júlio C M; Poppi, Ronei J

2015-09-01

This paper aims to estimate the temperature equivalent to 10% (T10%), 50% (T50%) and 90% (T90%) of distilled volume in crude oils using (1)H NMR and support vector regression (SVR). Confidence intervals for the predicted values were calculated using a boosting-type ensemble method in a procedure called ensemble support vector regression (eSVR). The estimated confidence intervals obtained by eSVR were compared with previously accepted calculations from partial least squares (PLS) models and a boosting-type ensemble applied in the PLS method (ePLS). By using the proposed boosting strategy, it was possible to identify outliers in the T10% property dataset. The eSVR procedure improved the accuracy of the distillation temperature predictions in relation to standard PLS, ePLS and SVR. For T10%, a root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 11.6°C was obtained in comparison with 15.6°C for PLS, 15.1°C for ePLS and 28.4°C for SVR. The RMSEPs for T50% were 24.2°C, 23.4°C, 22.8°C and 14.4°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. For T90%, the values of RMSEP were 39.0°C, 39.9°C and 39.9°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. The confidence intervals calculated by the proposed boosting methodology presented acceptable values for the three properties analyzed; however, they were lower than those calculated by the standard methodology for PLS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fetal sex determination in twin pregnancies using cell free fetal DNA analysis.

PubMed

Milan, Miguel; Mateu, Emilia; Blesa, David; Clemente-Ciscar, Monica; Simon, Carlos

2018-04-23

We sought to develop an accurate sex classification method in twin pregnancies using data obtained from a standard commercial non-invasive prenatal test. A total of 706 twin pregnancies were included in this retrospective analytical data study. Normalized chromosome values for chromosomes X and Y were used and adapted into a sex-score to predict fetal sex in each fetus, and results were compared with the clinical outcome at birth. Outcome information at birth for sex chromosomes was available for 232 twin pregnancies. From these, a total of 173 twin pregnancies with a Y chromosome identified in non-invasive pregnancy testing were used for the development of a predictive model. Global accuracy for sex classification in the testing set with 51 samples was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [0.90,0.99]), with a specificity and sensitivity of 1 (95% confidence interval [0.82,1.00]) and 0.97 (95% confidence interval [0.84,0.99]), respectively. While non-invasive prenatal testing is a screening method and confirmatory results must be obtained by ultrasound or genetic diagnosis, the sex-score determination presented herein offers an accurate and useful approach to characterizing fetus sex in twin pregnancies in a non-invasive manner early on in pregnancy. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accurate estimation of normal incidence absorption coefficients with confidence intervals using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuye, Cedric; Vanlanduit, Steve; Guillaume, Patrick

2009-06-01

When using optical measurements of the sound fields inside a glass tube, near the material under test, to estimate the reflection and absorption coefficients, not only these acoustical parameters but also confidence intervals can be determined. The sound fields are visualized using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV). In this paper the influence of different test signals on the quality of the results, obtained with this technique, is examined. The amount of data gathered during one measurement scan makes a thorough statistical analysis possible leading to the knowledge of confidence intervals. The use of a multi-sine, constructed on the resonance frequencies of the test tube, shows to be a very good alternative for the traditional periodic chirp. This signal offers the ability to obtain data for multiple frequencies in one measurement, without the danger of a low signal-to-noise ratio. The variability analysis in this paper clearly shows the advantages of the proposed multi-sine compared to the periodic chirp. The measurement procedure and the statistical analysis are validated by measuring the reflection ratio at a closed end and comparing the results with the theoretical value. Results of the testing of two building materials (an acoustic ceiling tile and linoleum) are presented and compared to supplier data.

Combining benefits of an adrenergic and a muscarinic blocker in a single formulation - a pharmacokinetic evaluation.

PubMed

Nazarudheen, Shabana; Dey, Surajit; Kandhwal, Kirti; Arora, Rachna; Reyar, Simrit; Khuroo, Arshad H; Monif, Tausif; Madan, Sumit; Arora, Vinod

2013-11-01

A pharmacokinetic bioequivalence study was conducted in Asian subjects, to compare a fixed dose combination capsule single oral dose of alpha adrenoceptor blocker-Alfuzosin hydrochloride 10mg extended release and muscarinic antagonists-Solifenacin succinate 5mg against individually administered Xatral XL 10mg tablets (Alfuzosin) of Sanofi Synthelabo Limited, United Kingdom (UK) and Vesicare 5mg tablets (Solifenacin) of Astellas Pharma Limited, UK under fed conditions. Blood samples were collected pre-dose up to 72 h post dose for determination of plasma Alfuzosin and Solifenacin concentrations and calculation of the pharmacokinetic parameters. ANOVA was performed on the log (natural)-transformed pharmacokinetic parameters. A 90% confidence interval for the ratios of the test and reference product averages (least square means) were calculated for alfuzosin and solifenacin. The 90% confidence intervals obtained for alfuzosin for Cmax, AUC0-t and AUC0-∞ were 102.74-122.75%, 95.84-116.96% and 95.82-116.76%, respectively. The 90% confidence intervals obtained for Solifenacin for Cmax, and AUC0-72 were 89.55-97.91% and 90.47-99.38%, respectively. Based on the results, the fixed dose combination was concluded to be bioequivalent to individually administered products. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data: Methods and Software.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2016-06-01

Cronbach's coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald's omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega.

Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2015-01-01

Cronbach’s coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald’s omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega. PMID:29795870

Biomass Thermogravimetric Analysis: Uncertainty Determination Methodology and Sampling Maps Generation

PubMed Central

Pazó, Jose A.; Granada, Enrique; Saavedra, Ángeles; Eguía, Pablo; Collazo, Joaquín

2010-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a methodology for the determination of the maximum sampling error and confidence intervals of thermal properties obtained from thermogravimetric analysis (TG), including moisture, volatile matter, fixed carbon and ash content. The sampling procedure of the TG analysis was of particular interest and was conducted with care. The results of the present study were compared to those of a prompt analysis, and a correlation between the mean values and maximum sampling errors of the methods were not observed. In general, low and acceptable levels of uncertainty and error were obtained, demonstrating that the properties evaluated by TG analysis were representative of the overall fuel composition. The accurate determination of the thermal properties of biomass with precise confidence intervals is of particular interest in energetic biomass applications. PMID:20717532

Analysis of routine histological evaluation of tissues removed during primary hip and knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Lawrence, T; Moskal, J T; Diduch, D R

1999-07-01

It has often been hospital policy to send all resected specimens obtained during a total hip or knee arthroplasty for histological evaluation. This practice is expensive and may be unnecessary. We sought to determine the ability of surgeons to diagnose primary joint conditions correctly, and we attempted to identify any possible risks to the patient resulting from the omission of routine histological evaluation of specimens at the surgeon's discretion. Our objective was to ascertain whether routine histological evaluation could be safely omitted from the protocol for primary hip and knee arthroplasty without compromising the care of the patient. A total of 1388 consecutive arthroplasties in 1136 patients were identified from a database of primary total hip and knee arthroplasties that was prospectively maintained by the senior one of us. Follow-up data obtained at a mean of 5.5 years (range, two to ten years) were available after 92 percent (1273) of the 1388 arthroplasties. The preoperative diagnosis was determined from the history, findings on clinical examination, and radiographs. The intraoperative diagnosis was determined by gross inspection of joint fluid, articular cartilage, synovial tissue, and the cut surfaces of resected specimens. The combination of the preoperative and intraoperative diagnoses was considered to be the surgeon's clinical diagnosis. All resected specimens were sent for routine histological evaluation, and a pathological diagnosis was made. Attention was given to whether a discrepancy between the surgeon's clinical diagnosis and the pathological diagnosis altered the management of the patient. The original diagnoses were updated with use of annual radiographs and clinical assessments. The cost of histological examination of specimens obtained at arthroplasty was determined by consultation with hospital administration, accounting, and pathology department personnel. A pathological fracture or an impending fracture was diagnosed preoperatively and confirmed intraoperatively during twelve of the 1388 arthroplasties. Histological analysis demonstrated malignancy in specimens obtained during eleven of these arthroplasties and evidence of a benign rheumatoid geode in the specimen obtained during the twelfth arthroplasty. The preoperative and intraoperative diagnoses made before and during the remaining 1376 arthroplasties were benign conditions, which were confirmed histologically in all patients. No diagnosis changed during the follow-up period. As demonstrated by a comparison with the histological diagnosis, the surgeon's clinical diagnosis of malignancy had a sensitivity of 100 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 74.0 to 100 percent), a specificity of 99.9 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 99.6 to 100 percent), a positive predictive value of 91.7 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 64.6 to 98.5 percent), and a negative predictive value of 100 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 99.7 to 100 percent). There was a discrepancy between the preoperative and intraoperative diagnoses associated with eleven arthroplasties. All eleven intraoperative diagnoses were correct, as confirmed histologically. Excluding the patients who had a pathological or impending fracture, the accuracy of the surgeon's preoperative diagnosis was 99.2 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 98.6 to 99.5 percent). When the intraoperative and preoperative diagnoses were combined, the accuracy was 100 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 99.7 to 100 percent). Histological evaluation at our hospital resulted in total charges, including hospital costs and professional fees, of $196.27 and a mean total reimbursement of $102.59 per evaluation. In our series of 1136 patients with 1388 arthroplasties, these costs could have been eliminated for all but the twelve patients who had a suspected malignant lesion and the one patient in whom pigmented villonodular synovitis was found. (ABSTRACT

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

PubMed

Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

2017-11-10

In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The association between the metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score and pulmonary function in non-smoking adults.

PubMed

Yoon, Hyun; Gi, Mi Young; Cha, Ju Ae; Yoo, Chan Uk; Park, Sang Muk

2018-03-01

This study assessed the association of metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score with the predicted forced vital capacity and predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s) values in Korean non-smoking adults. We analysed data obtained from 6684 adults during the 2013-2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. After adjustment for related variables, metabolic syndrome ( p < 0.001) and metabolic syndrome score ( p < 0.001) were found to be inversely associated with the predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 s values. The odds ratios of restrictive pulmonary disease (the predicted forced vital capacity < 80.0% with forced expiratory volume in 1 s/FVC ⩾ 70.0%) by metabolic syndrome score with metabolic syndrome score 0 as a reference group showed no significance for metabolic syndrome score 1 [1.061 (95% confidence interval, 0.755-1.490)] and metabolic syndrome score 2 [1.247 (95% confidence interval, 0.890-1.747)], but showed significant for metabolic syndrome score 3 [1.433 (95% confidence interval, 1.010-2.033)] and metabolic syndrome score ⩾ 4 [1.760 (95% confidence interval, 1.216-2.550)]. In addition, the odds ratio of restrictive pulmonary disease of the metabolic syndrome [1.360 (95% confidence interval, 1.118-1.655)] was significantly higher than those of non-metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score were inversely associated with the predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 s values in Korean non-smoking adults. In addition, metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score were positively associated with the restrictive pulmonary disease.

Educational achievement among long-term survivors of congenital heart defects: a Danish population-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Olsen, Morten; Hjortdal, Vibeke E; Mortensen, Laust H; Christensen, Thomas D; Sørensen, Henrik T; Pedersen, Lars

2011-04-01

Congenital heart defect patients may experience neurodevelopmental impairment. We investigated their educational attainments from basic schooling to higher education. Using administrative databases, we identified all Danish patients with a cardiac defect diagnosis born from 1 January, 1977 to 1 January, 1991 and alive at age 13 years. As a comparison cohort, we randomly sampled 10 persons per patient. We obtained information on educational attainment from Denmark's Database for Labour Market Research. The study population was followed until achievement of educational levels, death, emigration, or 1 January, 2006. We estimated the hazard ratio of attaining given educational levels, conditional on completing preceding levels, using discrete-time Cox regression and adjusting for socio-economic factors. Analyses were repeated for a sub-cohort of patients and controls born at term and without extracardiac defects or chromosomal anomalies. We identified 2986 patients. Their probability of completing compulsory basic schooling was approximately 10% lower than that of control individuals (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.79, ranged from 0.75 to 0.82 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.82). Their subsequent probability of completing secondary school was lower than that of the controls, both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.80) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.86). The probability of attaining a higher degree, conditional on completion of youth education, was affected both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.01) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.92; 95% confidence interval: 0.79-1.07). The probability of educational attainment was reduced among long-term congenital heart defect survivors.

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Deborah A.

Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

The Valsalva manoeuvre versus tourniquet for venipuncture.

PubMed

Villa, Gianluca; Chelazzi, Cosimo; Giua, Rosa; Lavacchini, Laura; Tofani, Lorenzo; Zagli, Giovanni; Barbani, Francesco; De Gaudio, A Raffaele; Romagnoli, Stefano; Pinelli, Fulvio

2018-03-01

During ultrasound-guided cannulation, venous filling is required for venipuncture. Tourniquet with an elastic tube at the axilla is the most common method to induce venous stasis for cannulation of the deep veins of the arm. Although effective, this method might be associated with short- and long-term complications. Valsalva manoeuvre has been used to produce venous filling in other extrathoracic veins. The aim of this observational study is to demonstrate the effect of Valsalva manoeuvre in respect of the elastic tourniquet on venous distention during echography-guided cannulation of the deep veins of the arm. Sixty-nine patients scheduled for cannulation of basilic or brachial vein were prospectively observed. Vein diameters were recorded at rest and after 10 s of Valsalva or tourniquet placement. The mean difference between basilic vein diameters during tourniquet and Valsalva manoeuvre was 0.006 mm (95% confidence interval = -inf, 0.09) with a standard deviation of 0.5 mm (95% confidence interval = 0.5, 0.7; p > 0.01). The mean difference between brachial vein diameters during tourniquet and Valsalva manoeuvre was 0.04 mm (95% confidence interval = -0.23, 0.15) with a standard deviation of 0.8 mm (95% confidence interval = 0.7, 0.9; p > 0.01). This increase in cross-sectional basilic and brachial vein diameters was not different to that obtained with the elastic tube tourniquet.

Aortic stiffness and the balance between cardiac oxygen supply and demand: the Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Guelen, Ilja; Mattace-Raso, Francesco Us; van Popele, Nicole M; Westerhof, Berend E; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline Cm; Bos, Willem Jan W

2008-06-01

Aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether aortic stiffness, estimated as aortic pulse wave velocity, is associated with decreased perfusion pressure estimated as the cardiac oxygen supply potential. Aortic stiffness and aortic pressure waves, reconstructed from finger blood pressure waves, were obtained in 2490 older adults within the framework of the Rotterdam Study, a large population-based study. Cardiac oxygen supply and demand were estimated using pulse wave analysis techniques, and related to aortic stiffness by linear regression analyses after adjustment for age, sex, mean arterial pressure and heart rate. Cardiac oxygen demand, estimated as the Systolic Pressure Time Index and the Rate Pressure Product, increased with increasing aortic stiffness [0.27 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: 0.21; 0.34)] and [42.2 mmHg/min (95% confidence interval: 34.1; 50.3)], respectively. Cardiac oxygen supply potential estimated as the Diastolic Pressure Time Index decreased [-0.70 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: -0.86; -0.54)] with aortic stiffening. Accordingly, the supply/demand ratio Diastolic Pressure Time Index/Systolic Pressure Time Index -1.11 (95% confidence interval: -0.14; -0.009) decreased with increasing aortic stiffness. Aortic stiffness is associated with estimates of increased cardiac oxygen demand and a decreased cardiac oxygen supply potential. These results may offer additional explanation for the relation between aortic stiffness and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

PubMed

Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

2015-06-01

Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparison of WBRT alone, SRS alone, and their combination in the treatment of one or more brain metastases: Review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Muhammad; Lin, Jie; Liao, Guixiang; Li, Rong; Wang, Baiyao; Xie, Guozhu; Zheng, Jieling; Yuan, Yawei

2017-07-01

Whole brain radiotherapy has been a standard treatment of brain metastases. Stereotactic radiosurgery provides more focal and aggressive radiation and normal tissue sparing but worse local and distant control. This meta-analysis was performed to assess and compare the effectiveness of whole brain radiotherapy alone, stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and their combination in the treatment of brain metastases based on randomized controlled trial studies. Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library) were searched to identify randomized controlled trial studies that compared treatment outcome of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiosurgery. This meta-analysis was performed using the Review Manager (RevMan) software (version 5.2) that is provided by the Cochrane Collaboration. The data used were hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated for time-to-event data extracted from survival curves and local tumor control rate curves. Odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for dichotomous data, while mean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for continuous data. Fixed-effects or random-effects models were adopted according to heterogeneity. Five studies (n = 763) were included in this meta-analysis meeting the inclusion criteria. All the included studies were randomized controlled trials. The sample size ranged from 27 to 331. In total 202 (26%) patients with whole brain radiotherapy alone, 196 (26%) patients receiving stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and 365 (48%) patients were in whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery group. No significant survival benefit was observed for any treatment approach; hazard ratio was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.43, p = 0.12) based on three randomized controlled trials for whole brain radiotherapy only compared to whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery and hazard ratio was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.29, p = 0.81) for stereotactic radiosurgery only compared to combined approach. Local control was best achieved when whole brain radiotherapy was combined with stereotactic radiosurgery. Hazard ratio 2.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.36-3.09, p = 0.0006) and hazard ratio 1.84 (95% confidence interval: 1.26-2.70, p = 0.002) were obtained from comparing whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only to whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery, respectively. No difference in adverse events for treatment difference; odds ratio 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-1.76, p = 0.48) and odds ratio 0.92 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-1.42, p = 71) for whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole brain radiotherapy only and whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus stereotactic radiosurgery only, respectively. Adding stereotactic radiosurgery to whole brain radiotherapy provides better local control as compared to whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only with no difference in radiation related toxicities.

[Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

PubMed

Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

2012-04-01

Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

Stapled versus handsewn methods for colorectal anastomosis surgery.

PubMed

Lustosa, S A; Matos, D; Atallah, A N; Castro, A A

2001-01-01

Randomized controlled trials comparing stapled with handsewn colorectal anastomosis have not shown either technique to be superior, perhaps because individual studies lacked statistical power. A systematic review, with pooled analysis of results, might provide a more definitive answer. To compare the safety and effectiveness of stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. The following primary hypothesis was tested: the stapled technique is more effective because it decreases the level of complications. The RCT register of the Cochrane Review Group was searched for any trial or reference to a relevant trial (published, in-press, or in progress). All publications were sought through computerised searches of EMBASE, LILACS, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trials Database, and through letters to industrial companies and authors. There were no limits upon language, date, or other criteria. All randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in which stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis were compared. Adult patients submitted electively to colorectal anastomosis. Endoluminal circular stapler and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. a) Mortality b) Overall Anastomotic Dehiscence c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence e) Stricture f) Anastomotic Haemorrhage g) Reoperation h) Wound Infection i) Anastomosis Duration j) Hospital Stay. Data were independently extracted by the two reviewers (SASL, DM) and cross-checked. The methodological quality of each trial was assessed by the same two reviewers. Details of the randomization (generation and concealment), blinding, whether an intention-to-treat analysis was done, and the number of patients lost to follow-up were recorded. The results of each RCT were summarised on an intention-to-treat basis in 2 x 2 tables for each outcome. External validity was defined by characteristics of the participants, the interventions and the outcomes. The RCTs were stratified according to the level of colorectal anastomosis. The Risk Difference method (random effects model) and NNT for dichotomous outcomes measures and weighted mean difference for continuous outcomes measures, with the corresponding 95% confidence interval, were presented in this review. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated by using funnel plot and chi-square testing. Of the 1233 patients enrolled ( in 9 trials), 622 were treated with stapled, and 611 with manual, suture. The following main results were obtained: a) Mortality: result based on 901 patients; Risk Difference - 0.6% Confidence Interval -2.8% to +1.6%. b) Overall Dehiscence: result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference 0.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.0% to +5.3%. c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference -1.4%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.2 to +2.3%. d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 825 patients; Risk Difference 1.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -4.8% to +7.3%. e) Stricture: result based on 1042 patients; Risk Difference 4.6%, 95% Confidence Interval 1.2% to 8.1%. Number needed to treat 17, 95% confidence interval 12 to 31. f) Anastomotic Hemorrhage: result based on 662 patients; Risk Difference 2.7%, 95% Confidence Interval - 0.1% to +5.5%. g) Reoperation: result based on 544 patients; Risk Difference 3.9%, 95% Confidence Interval 0.3% to 7.4%. h) Wound Infection: result based on 567 patients; Risk Difference 1.0%, 95% Confidence Interval -2.2% to +4.3%. i) Anastomosis duration: result based on one study (159 patients); Weighted Mean Difference -7.6 minutes, 95% Confidence Interval -12.9 to -2.2 minutes. j) Hospital Stay: result based on one study (159 patients), Weighted Mean Difference 2.0 days, 95% Confidence Interval -3.27 to +7.2 days. The evidence found was insufficient to demonstrate any superiority of stapled over handsewn techniques in colorectal anastomosis, regardless of the level of anastomosis.

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

Long-term prediction of creep strains of mineral wool slabs under constant compressive stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnip, Ivan; Vaitkus, Saulius; Keršulis, Vladislovas; Vėjelis, Sigitas

2012-02-01

The results obtained in determining the creep strain of mineral wool slabs under compressive stress, used for insulating flat roofs and facades, cast-in-place floors, curtain and external basement walls, as well as for sound insulation of floors, are presented. The creep strain tests were conducted under a compressive stress of σ c =0.35 σ 10%. Interval forecasting of creep strain was made by extrapolating the creep behaviour and approximated in accordance with EN 1606 by a power equation and reduced to a linear form using logarithms. This was performed for a lead time of 10 years. The extension of the range of the confidence interval due to discount of the prediction data, i.e. a decrease in their informativity was allowed for by an additional coefficient. Analysis of the experimental data obtained from the tests having 65 and 122 days duration showed that the prediction of creep strains for 10 years can be made based on data obtained in experiments with durations shorter than the 122 days as specified by EN 13162. Interval prediction of creep strains (with a confidence probability of 90%) was based on using the mean square deviation of the actual direct observations of creep strains in logarithmic form to have the linear trend in a retrospective area.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B

2007-02-01

Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

Accurate and consistent automatic seismocardiogram annotation without concurrent ECG.

PubMed

Laurin, A; Khosrow-Khavar, F; Blaber, A P; Tavakolian, Kouhyar

2016-09-01

Seismocardiography (SCG) is the measurement of vibrations in the sternum caused by the beating of the heart. Precise cardiac mechanical timings that are easily obtained from SCG are critically dependent on accurate identification of fiducial points. So far, SCG annotation has relied on concurrent ECG measurements. An algorithm capable of annotating SCG without the use any other concurrent measurement was designed. We subjected 18 participants to graded lower body negative pressure. We collected ECG and SCG, obtained R peaks from the former, and annotated the latter by hand, using these identified peaks. We also annotated the SCG automatically. We compared the isovolumic moment timings obtained by hand to those obtained using our algorithm. Mean  ±  confidence interval of the percentage of accurately annotated cardiac cycles were [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] for levels of negative pressure 0, -20, -30, -40, and  -50 mmHg. LF/HF ratios, the relative power of low-frequency variations to high-frequency variations in heart beat intervals, obtained from isovolumic moments were also compared to those obtained from R peaks. The mean differences  ±  confidence interval were [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] for increasing levels of negative pressure. The accuracy and consistency of the algorithm enables the use of SCG as a stand-alone heart monitoring tool in healthy individuals at rest, and could serve as a basis for an eventual application in pathological cases.

Complications following incident stroke resulting in readmissions: an analysis of data from three Scottish health surveys.

PubMed

Ponomarev, Dmitry; Miller, Claire; Govan, Lindsay; Haig, Caroline; Wu, Olivia; Langhorne, Peter

2015-08-01

Stroke is widely recognized as the major contributor to morbidity and mortality in the United Kingdom. We analyzed the data obtained from the three consecutive Scottish Health Surveys and the Scottish Morbidity records, with the aim of identifying risk factors for, and timing of, common poststroke complications. There were 19434 individuals sampled during three Scottish Health Surveys in 1995, 1998, and 2001. For these individuals their morbidity and mortality outcomes were obtained in 2007. Incident stroke prevalence, risk factors for a range of poststroke complications, and average times until such complications in the sample were established. Of the total of 168 incident stroke admissions (0·86% of the survey), 16·1% people died during incident stroke hospitalization. Of the remaining 141 stroke survivors, 75·2% were rehospitalized at least once. The most frequent reason for readmission after stroke was a cardiovascular complication (28·6%), median time until event 1412 days, followed by infection (17·3%, median 1591 days). The risk of cardiovascular readmission was higher in those with 'poor' self-assessed health (odds ratio 7·70; 95% confidence interval 1·64-43·27), smokers (odds ratio 4·24; 95% confidence interval 1·11-21·59), and doubled with every five years increase in age (odds ratio 1·97; 95% confidence interval 1·46-2·65). 'Poor' self-assessed health increased chance of readmission for infection (odds ratio 14·11; 95% confidence interval 2·27-276·56). Cardiovascular events and infections are the most frequent poststroke complications resulting in readmissions. The time period until event provides a possibility to focus monitoring on those people at risk of readmission and introduce preventative measures, thereby reducing readmission-associated costs. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging using sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction for detection of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ma, Heng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Jing; Ge, Lan; An, Jing; Tang, Qing; Li, Han; Zhang, Yu; Chen, David; Wang, Yong; Liu, Jiabin; Liang, Zhigang; Lin, Kai; Jin, Lixin; Bi, Xiaoming; Li, Kuncheng; Li, Debiao

2012-04-15

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction (SW-CG-HYPR) allows whole left ventricular coverage, improved temporal and spatial resolution and signal/noise ratio, and reduced cardiac motion-related image artifacts. The accuracy of this technique for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been determined in a large number of patients. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR in patients with suspected CAD. A total of 50 consecutive patients who were scheduled for coronary angiography with suspected CAD underwent myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR at 3.0 T. The perfusion defects were interpreted qualitatively by 2 blinded observers and were correlated with x-ray angiographic stenoses ≥50%. The prevalence of CAD was 56%. In the per-patient analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of SW-CG-HYPR was 96% (95% confidence interval 82% to 100%), 82% (95% confidence interval 60% to 95%), 87% (95% confidence interval 70% to 96%), 95% (95% confidence interval 74% to100%), and 90% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%), respectively. In the per-vessel analysis, the corresponding values were 98% (95% confidence interval 91% to 100%), 89% (95% confidence interval 80% to 94%), 86% (95% confidence interval 76% to 93%), 99% (95% confidence interval 93% to 100%), and 93% (95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), respectively. In conclusion, myocardial perfusion MRI using SW-CG-HYPR allows whole left ventricular coverage and high resolution and has high diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative Diagnostic Performance of Ultrasonography and 99mTc-Sestamibi Scintigraphy for Parathyroid Adenoma in Primary Hyperparathyroidism; Systematic Review and Meta- Analysis

PubMed

Nafisi Moghadam, Reza; Amlelshahbaz, Amir Pasha; Namiranian, Nasim; Sobhan-Ardekani, Mohammad; Emami-Meybodi, Mahmood; Dehghan, Ali; Rahmanian, Masoud; Razavi-Ratki, Seid Kazem

2017-12-28

Objective: Ultrasonography (US) and parathyroid scintigraphy (PS) with 99mTc-MIBI are common methods for preoperative localization of parathyroid adenomas but there discrepancies exist with regard to diagnostic accuracy. The aim of the study was to compare PS and US for localization of parathyroid adenoma with a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature. Methods: Pub Med, Scopus (EMbase), Web of Science and the reference lists of all included studies were searched up to 1st January 2016. The search strategy was according PICO characteristics. Heterogeneity between the studies was accounted by P < 0.1. Point estimates were pooled estimate of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of SPECT and ultrasonography with 99% confidence intervals (CIs) by pooling available data. Data analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software (version 1.4). Results: Among 188 studies and after deletion of duplicated studies (75), a total of 113 titles and abstracts were studied. From these, 12 studies were selected. The meta-analysis determined a pooled sensitivity for scintigraphy of 83% [99% confidence interval (CI) 96.358 -97.412] and for ultra-sonography of 80% [99% confidence interval (CI) 76-83]. Similar results for specificity were also obtained for both approache. Conclusion: According this meta- analysis, there were no significant differences between the two methods in terms of sensitivity and specificity. There were overlaps in 99% confidence intervals. Also features of the two methods are similar. Creative Commons Attribution License

Assessment of the Thematic Accuracy of Land Cover Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höhle, J.

2015-08-01

Several land cover maps are generated from aerial imagery and assessed by different approaches. The test site is an urban area in Europe for which six classes (`building', `hedge and bush', `grass', `road and parking lot', `tree', `wall and car port') had to be derived. Two classification methods were applied (`Decision Tree' and `Support Vector Machine') using only two attributes (height above ground and normalized difference vegetation index) which both are derived from the images. The assessment of the thematic accuracy applied a stratified design and was based on accuracy measures such as user's and producer's accuracy, and kappa coefficient. In addition, confidence intervals were computed for several accuracy measures. The achieved accuracies and confidence intervals are thoroughly analysed and recommendations are derived from the gained experiences. Reliable reference values are obtained using stereovision, false-colour image pairs, and positioning to the checkpoints with 3D coordinates. The influence of the training areas on the results is studied. Cross validation has been tested with a few reference points in order to derive approximate accuracy measures. The two classification methods perform equally for five classes. Trees are classified with a much better accuracy and a smaller confidence interval by means of the decision tree method. Buildings are classified by both methods with an accuracy of 99% (95% CI: 95%-100%) using independent 3D checkpoints. The average width of the confidence interval of six classes was 14% of the user's accuracy.

A method to deconvolve stellar rotational velocities II. The probability distribution function via Tikhonov regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christen, Alejandra; Escarate, Pedro; Curé, Michel; Rial, Diego F.; Cassetti, Julia

2016-10-01

Aims: Knowing the distribution of stellar rotational velocities is essential for understanding stellar evolution. Because we measure the projected rotational speed v sin I, we need to solve an ill-posed problem given by a Fredholm integral of the first kind to recover the "true" rotational velocity distribution. Methods: After discretization of the Fredholm integral we apply the Tikhonov regularization method to obtain directly the probability distribution function for stellar rotational velocities. We propose a simple and straightforward procedure to determine the Tikhonov parameter. We applied Monte Carlo simulations to prove that the Tikhonov method is a consistent estimator and asymptotically unbiased. Results: This method is applied to a sample of cluster stars. We obtain confidence intervals using a bootstrap method. Our results are in close agreement with those obtained using the Lucy method for recovering the probability density distribution of rotational velocities. Furthermore, Lucy estimation lies inside our confidence interval. Conclusions: Tikhonov regularization is a highly robust method that deconvolves the rotational velocity probability density function from a sample of v sin I data directly without the need for any convergence criteria.

Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

Pulmonary disease in cystic fibrosis: assessment with chest CT at chest radiography dose levels.

PubMed

Ernst, Caroline W; Basten, Ines A; Ilsen, Bart; Buls, Nico; Van Gompel, Gert; De Wachter, Elke; Nieboer, Koenraad H; Verhelle, Filip; Malfroot, Anne; Coomans, Danny; De Maeseneer, Michel; de Mey, Johan

2014-11-01

To investigate a computed tomographic (CT) protocol with iterative reconstruction at conventional radiography dose levels for the assessment of structural lung abnormalities in patients with cystic fibrosis ( CF cystic fibrosis ). In this institutional review board-approved study, 38 patients with CF cystic fibrosis (age range, 6-58 years; 21 patients <18 years and 17 patients >18 years) underwent investigative CT (at minimal exposure settings combined with iterative reconstruction) as a replacement of yearly follow-up posteroanterior chest radiography. Verbal informed consent was obtained from all patients or their parents. CT images were randomized and rated independently by two radiologists with use of the Bhalla scoring system. In addition, mosaic perfusion was evaluated. As reference, the previous available conventional chest CT scan was used. Differences in Bhalla scores were assessed with the χ(2) test and intraclass correlation coefficients ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient s). Radiation doses for CT and radiography were assessed for adults (>18 years) and children (<18 years) separately by using technical dose descriptors and estimated effective dose. Differences in dose were assessed with the Mann-Whitney U test. The median effective dose for the investigative protocol was 0.04 mSv (95% confidence interval [ CI confidence interval ]: 0.034 mSv, 0.10 mSv) for children and 0.05 mSv (95% CI confidence interval : 0.04 mSv, 0.08 mSv) for adults. These doses were much lower than those with conventional CT (median: 0.52 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.31 mSv, 3.90 mSv] for children and 1.12 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.57 mSv, 3.15 mSv] for adults) and of the same order of magnitude as those for conventional radiography (median: 0.012 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.006 mSv, 0.022 mSv] for children and 0.012 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.005 mSv, 0.031 mSv] for adults). All images were rated at least as diagnostically acceptable. Very good agreement was found in overall Bhalla score ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.96) with regard to the severity of bronchiectasis ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.87) and sacculations and abscesses ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.84). Interobserver agreement was excellent ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.86-1). For patients with CF cystic fibrosis , a dedicated chest CT protocol can replace the two yearly follow-up chest radiographic examinations without major dose penalty and with similar diagnostic quality compared with conventional CT.

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

PubMed

Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

PubMed Central

Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for correlating two autocorrelated climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olafsdottir, Kristin B.; Mudelsee, Manfred

2013-04-01

Estimation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between two time series to evaluate the influences of one time depended variable on another is one of the most often used statistical method in climate sciences. Various methods are used to estimate confidence interval to support the correlation point estimate. Many of them make strong mathematical assumptions regarding distributional shape and serial correlation, which are rarely met. More robust statistical methods are needed to increase the accuracy of the confidence intervals. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, 2003), where the main intention was to get an accurate confidence interval for correlation coefficient between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the process that generated the data into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy for smaller data sizes can be improved. Here we adapt the PearsonT program into a new version called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique, which basically performs a second bootstrap loop or resamples from the bootstrap resamples. It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap is used to preserve the serial correlation of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error based bootstrap Student's t confidence intervals. The performances of the calibrated confidence intervals are examined with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared with the performances of confidence intervals without calibration, that is, PearsonT. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small (i.e., within a few percentage points) already for data sizes as small as 20. One form of climate time series is output from numerical models which simulate the climate system. The method is applied to model data from the high resolution ocean model, INALT01 where the relationship between the Agulhas Leakage and the North Brazil Current is evaluated. Preliminary results show significant correlation between the two variables when there is 10 year lag between them, which is more or less the time that takes the Agulhas Leakage water to reach the North Brazil Current. Mudelsee, M., 2003. Estimating Pearson's correlation coefficient with bootstrap confidence interval from serially dependent time series. Mathematical Geology 35, 651-665.

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamkins, J.

2015-05-01

We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

New Approaches to Robust Confidence Intervals for Location: A Simulation Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

obtain a denominator for the test statistic. Those statistics based on location estimates derived from Hampel’s redescending influence function or v...defined an influence function for a test in terms of the behavior of its P-values when the data are sampled from a model distribution modified by point...proposal could be used for interval estimation as well as hypothesis testing, the extension is immediate. Once an influence function has been defined

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

PubMed Central

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2016-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful because it can be used to test specific questions of central interest in studies with factorial designs. It weighs several means and combines them into one or two sets that can be tested with t tests. The effect size produced by a contrast analysis is simply the difference between means. The CI of the effect size informs directly about direction, hypothesis exclusion, and the relevance of the effects of interest. However, any interpretation in terms of precision or likelihood requires the use of likelihood intervals or credible intervals (Bayesian). These various intervals and even a Bayesian t test can be obtained easily with free software. This tutorial reviews these methods to guide researchers in answering the following questions: When I analyze mean differences in factorial designs, where can I find the effects of central interest, and what can I learn about their effect sizes? PMID:29805179

Quantitative Myocardial Perfusion Imaging Versus Visual Analysis in Diagnosing Myocardial Ischemia: A CE-MARC Substudy.

PubMed

Biglands, John D; Ibraheem, Montasir; Magee, Derek R; Radjenovic, Aleksandra; Plein, Sven; Greenwood, John P

2018-05-01

This study sought to compare the diagnostic accuracy of visual and quantitative analyses of myocardial perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance against a reference standard of quantitative coronary angiography. Visual analysis of perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance studies for assessing myocardial perfusion has been shown to have high diagnostic accuracy for coronary artery disease. However, only a few small studies have assessed the diagnostic accuracy of quantitative myocardial perfusion. This retrospective study included 128 patients randomly selected from the CE-MARC (Clinical Evaluation of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Coronary Heart Disease) study population such that the distribution of risk factors and disease status was proportionate to the full population. Visual analysis results of cardiovascular magnetic resonance perfusion images, by consensus of 2 expert readers, were taken from the original study reports. Quantitative myocardial blood flow estimates were obtained using Fermi-constrained deconvolution. The reference standard for myocardial ischemia was a quantitative coronary x-ray angiogram stenosis severity of ≥70% diameter in any coronary artery of >2 mm diameter, or ≥50% in the left main stem. Diagnostic performance was calculated using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. The area under the curve for visual analysis was 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.81 to 0.95) with a sensitivity of 81.0% (95% confidence interval: 69.1% to 92.8%) and specificity of 86.0% (95% confidence interval: 78.7% to 93.4%). For quantitative stress myocardial blood flow the area under the curve was 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 0.96) with a sensitivity of 87.5% (95% confidence interval: 77.3% to 97.7%) and specificity of 84.5% (95% confidence interval: 76.8% to 92.3%). There was no statistically significant difference between the diagnostic performance of quantitative and visual analyses (p = 0.72). Incorporating rest myocardial blood flow values to generate a myocardial perfusion reserve did not significantly increase the quantitative analysis area under the curve (p = 0.79). Quantitative perfusion has a high diagnostic accuracy for detecting coronary artery disease but is not superior to visual analysis. The incorporation of rest perfusion imaging does not improve diagnostic accuracy in quantitative perfusion analysis. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors influencing repeated teenage pregnancy: a review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Maravilla, Joemer C; Betts, Kim S; Couto E Cruz, Camila; Alati, Rosa

2017-11-01

Existing evidence of predictors of repeated teenage pregnancy has not been assessed rigorously. This systematic review provides a comprehensive evaluation of protective and risk factors that are associated with repeated teenage pregnancy through a metaanalytical consensus. We used PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, ProQuest, PsychINFO, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Web of Science databases from 1997-2015 and the reference list of other relevant research papers and related reviews. Eligibility criteria included (1) epidemiologic studies that analyzed factors associated with repeated pregnancy or birth among adolescents <20 years of age who were nulliparous or experienced at least 1 pregnancy, and (2) experimental studies with an observational component that was adjusted for the intervention. We performed narrative synthesis of study characteristics, participant characteristics, study results, and quality assessment. We also conducted random-effects and quality-effects metaanalyses with meta-regression to obtain pooled odds ratios of identified factors and to determine sources of between-study heterogeneity. Twenty-six eligible epidemiologic studies, most from the United States (n=24), showed >47 factors with no evidence of publication bias for each metaanalysis. Use of contraception (pooled odds ratio, 0.60; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-1.02), particularly long-acting reversible contraceptives (pooled odds ratio, 0.19; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.45), considerably reduced repeated teenage pregnancy risk. Among studies about contraception, the number of follow-up visits (adjusted coefficient, 0.72; P=.102) and country of study (unadjusted coefficient, 2.57; permuted P=.071) explained between-study heterogeneity. Education-related factors, which included higher level of education (pooled odds ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.91) and school continuation (pooled odds ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.84), were found to be protective. Conversely, depression (pooled odds ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.87), history of abortion (pooled odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.54), and relationship factors, such as partner support, increased the repeated teenage pregnancy risk. Contraceptive use, educational factors, depression, and a history of abortion are the highly influential predictors of repeated teenage pregnancy. However, there is a lack of epidemiologic studies in low- and middle-income countries to measure the extent and characteristics of repeated teenage pregnancy across more varied settings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increase in Ischemic Stroke Incident Hospitalizations Among Bedouin Arabs During Ramadan Month.

PubMed

Zimhony, Noa; Abu-Salameh, Ibrahim; Sagy, Iftach; Dizitzer, Yotam; Oxman, Liat; Yitshak-Sade, Maayan; Novack, Victor; Horev, Anat; Ifergane, Gal

2018-05-03

Previous studies have not shown any significant effect on stroke incidence during Ramadan. We aimed to investigate the association between ischemic stroke incident hospitalizations and Ramadan, accounting for seasonality and temperature. This retrospective cohort study included all patients admitted with acute ischemic stroke to Soroka University Medical Center from June 2012 to June 2016. We obtained daily mean temperatures and relative humidity rates from 2 monitoring stations in South Israel. We analyzed the association between stroke incidence and Ramadan month, adjusting for weekly temperature and seasonality using Poisson regression models. We compared the first versus the last Ramadan fortnight. We performed an effect specificity analysis by assessing stroke incidence in the non-Bedouin population. We identified 4727 cases of ischemic stroke, 564 cases of which were Bedouin Arabs. Fifty-one cases occurred during Ramadan. Ramadan was significantly associated with an increased risk for ischemic stroke (RR 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-2.09), mainly during the first fortnight (RR 1.73, 95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.66) when compared with non-Ramadan periods. Mean weekly temperatures and the summer season were not associated with stroke incidence among Bedouin Arabs (RR 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.18 and RR 0.77; confidence interval 0.56-1.06 accordingly). Such association was not observed in the non-Bedouin population. The Ramadan month, particularly in its first 2 weeks, is an independent and ethnicity specific risk factor for ischemic stroke hospitalizations among the Bedouin Arab fasting population. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

CYP17 genetic polymorphism, breast cancer, and breast cancer risk factors.

PubMed

Ambrosone, Christine B; Moysich, Kirsten B; Furberg, Helena; Freudenheim, Jo L; Bowman, Elise D; Ahmed, Sabrina; Graham, Saxon; Vena, John E; Shields, Peter G

2003-01-01

Findings from previous studies regarding the association between the CYP17 genotype and breast cancer are inconsistent. We investigated the role of the MspAI genetic polymorphism in the 5' region of CYP17 on risk of breast cancer and as a modifier of reproductive risk factors. Questionnaire and genotyping data were obtained from a population-based, case-control study of premenopausal (n = 182) and postmenopausal (n = 214) European-American Caucasian women in western New York. Cases and controls were frequency matched by age and by county of residence. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were used to estimate relative risks. The CYP17 genotype was not associated with breast cancer risk; however, controls with the A2/A2 genotype (associated with higher estrogens) had earlier menarche and earlier first full-term pregnancy. Premenopausal women with A1/A1 genotypes, but not with A2 alleles, were at significantly decreased risk with late age at menarche (odds ratio = 0.37, 95% confidence interval = 0.14-0.99), and at increased risk with late age at first full-term pregnancy (odds ratio = 4.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.46-12.67) and with use of oral contraceptives (odds ratio = 3.24, 95% confidence interval = 1.08-9.73). Associations were weaker among postmenopausal women. These results suggest that the effects of factors that may alter breast cancer risk through a hormonal mechanism may be less important among premenopausal women with putative higher lifetime exposures to circulating estrogens related to the CYP17 A2 allele.

Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stark, Philip B.

1992-01-01

The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

2013-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousins, R. D.

The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jason E.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

2016-01-01

As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2009-01-01

Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

Spoiled gradient recalled acquisition in the steady state technique is superior to conventional postcontrast spin echo technique for magnetic resonance imaging detection of adrenocorticotropin-secreting pituitary tumors.

PubMed

Patronas, Nicholas; Bulakbasi, Nail; Stratakis, Constantine A; Lafferty, Antony; Oldfield, Edward H; Doppman, John; Nieman, Lynnette K

2003-04-01

Recent studies show that the standard T1-weighted spin echo (SE) technique for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) fails to identify 40% of corticotrope adenomas. We hypothesized that the superior soft tissue contrast and thinner sections obtained with spoiled gradient recalled acquisition in the steady state (SPGR) would improve tumor detection. We compared the performance of SE and SPGR MRI in 50 patients (age, 7-67 yr) with surgically confirmed corticotrope adenoma. Coronal SE and SPGR MR images were obtained before and after administration of gadolinium contrast, using a 1.5 T scanner. SE scans were obtained over 5.1 min (12-cm field of view; interleaved sections, 3 mm). SPGR scans were obtained over 3.45 min (12- or 18-cm field of view, contiguous 1- or 2-mm slices). The MRI interpretations of two radiologists were compared with findings at surgical resection. Compared with SE for detection of tumor, SPGR had superior sensitivity (80%; confidence interval, 68-91; vs. 49%; confidence interval, 34-63%), but a higher false positive rate (2% vs. 4%). We recommend the addition of SPGR to SE sequences using pituitary-specific technical parameters to improve the MRI detection of ACTH-secreting pituitary tumors.

Monitoring the Foetal Phase of Gestation in the Queen With a 12.5-MHz Ultrasound Probe and Prediction of the Parturition by Combining the Measurements of Head and Abdominal Diameters.

PubMed

Topie, E; Bencharif, D; Briand, L; Tainturier, D

2015-08-01

Ten gestations in six domestic shorthair cats (Europeans) were monitored daily during the foetal phase of gestation, from the 28th day after the first mating until parturition, using ultrasound with a 12.5-MHz probe. The development of the various organs over this period was recorded. The diameters of the head (HD) and abdomen (AD) were measured. Skeletal calcification visible on ultrasound occurred in a defined order between the 34th and 40th day of gestation. During the last 30 days of gestation, there was a significant correlation between HD and days before parturition (DBP) (r(2)  = 0.99) and between AD and DBP (r(2)  = 0.98). The following equations were obtained: DBP = -2.10*HD (mm) + 50.74; DBP = -1.01*AD (mm) + 42.19. The confidence intervals were stable over the last 30 days of gestation. For the HD, the confidence interval was ±1 day in 53% of cases and ±2 days in 85% of cases. For the AD, the confidence interval was ±1 day in 45% of cases and ±2 days in 77% of cases. A table obtained by combining the HD and AD measurements made it possible to estimate the date of parturition within 2 days with a reliability of over 85%. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Race, Ethnicity, Language, Social Class, and Health Communication Inequalities: A Nationally-Representative Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Viswanath, Kasisomayajula; Ackerson, Leland K.

2011-01-01

Background While mass media communications can be an important source of health information, there are substantial social disparities in health knowledge that may be related to media use. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the use of cancer-related health communications is patterned by race, ethnicity, language, and social class. Methodology/Principal Findings In a nationally-representative cross-sectional telephone survey, 5,187 U.S. adults provided information about demographic characteristics, cancer information seeking, and attention to and trust in health information from television, radio, newspaper, magazines, and the Internet. Cancer information seeking was lowest among Spanish-speaking Hispanics (odds ratio: 0.42; 95% confidence interval: 0.28–0.63) compared to non-Hispanic whites. Spanish-speaking Hispanics were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 3.10; 95% confidence interval: 2.07–4.66) and trust (odds ratio: 2.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.53–4.47) health messages from the radio. Non-Hispanic blacks were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 2.39; 95% confidence interval: 1.88–3.04) and trust (odds ratio: 2.16; 95% confidence interval: 1.61–2.90) health messages on television. Those who were college graduates tended to pay more attention to health information from newspapers (odds ratio: 1.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.42–2.75), magazines (odds ratio: 1.86; 95% confidence interval: 1.32–2.60), and the Internet (odds ratio: 4.74; 95% confidence interval: 2.70–8.31) and had less trust in cancer-related health information from television (odds ratio: 0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.32–0.62) and radio (odds ratio: 0.54; 95% confidence interval: 0.34–0.86) compared to those who were not high school graduates. Conclusions/Significance Health media use is patterned by race, ethnicity, language and social class. Providing greater access to and enhancing the quality of health media by taking into account factors associated with social determinants may contribute to addressing social disparities in health. PMID:21267450

Factors affecting blood sample haemolysis: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Barnard, Ed B G; Potter, David L; Ayling, Ruth M; Higginson, Ian; Bailey, Andrew G; Smith, Jason E

2016-04-01

To determine the effect of blood sampling through an intravenous catheter compared with a needle in Emergency Department blood sampling. We undertook a prospective, cross-sectional study in a UK university teaching hospital Emergency Department. A convenience sample of 985 patients who required blood sampling via venepuncture was collected. A total of 844 complete sets of data were analysed. The median age was 63 years, and 57% of patients were male. The primary outcome measure was the incidence of haemolysis in blood samples obtained via a needle compared with samples obtained via an intravenous catheter. Secondary outcome measures defined the effect on sample haemolysis of the side of the patient the sample was obtained from, the anatomical location of sampling, the perceived difficulty in obtaining the sample, the order of sample tubes collected, estimated tourniquet time and bench time. Data were analysed with logistic regression, and expressed as odds ratios (95% confidence intervals; P-values). Blood samples obtained through an intravenous catheter were more likely to be haemolysed than those obtained via a needle, odds ratio 5.63 (95% confidence interval 2.49-12.73; P<0.001). Blood sampling via an intravenous catheter was significantly associated with an increase in the likelihood of sample haemolysis compared with sampling with a needle. Wherever practicable, blood samples should be obtained via a needle in preference to an intravenous catheter. Future research should include both an economic evaluation, and staff and patient satisfaction of separating blood sampling and intravenous catheter placement.

Applying Bootstrap Resampling to Compute Confidence Intervals for Various Statistics with R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogan, C. Deha

2017-01-01

Background: Most of the studies in academic journals use p values to represent statistical significance. However, this is not a good indicator of practical significance. Although confidence intervals provide information about the precision of point estimation, they are, unfortunately, rarely used. The infrequent use of confidence intervals might…

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

2016-01-01

Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ordinary Least Squares Factor Loadings and Correlations in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Luo, Shanhong

2010-01-01

This article is concerned with using the bootstrap to assign confidence intervals for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in ordinary least squares exploratory factor analysis. Coverage performances of "SE"-based intervals, percentile intervals, bias-corrected percentile intervals, bias-corrected accelerated percentile…

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

2008-08-01

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rukuni, Ruramayi; Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Murphy, Michael F; Roberts, David; Stanworth, Simon J; Knight, Marian

2016-05-01

Antenatal anemia is a major public health problem in the UK, yet there is limited high quality evidence for associated poor clinical outcomes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence and clinical outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population. A retrospective cohort study of 80 422 singleton pregnancies was conducted using data from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank between 1995 and 2012. Antenatal anemia was defined as haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl during pregnancy. Incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals and compared over time using a chi-squared test for trend. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding variables. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval. The overall incidence of antenatal anemia was 9.3 cases/100 singleton pregnancies (95% confidence interval 9.1-9.5), decreasing from 16.9/100 to 4.1/100 singleton pregnancies between 1995 and 2012 (p < 0.001). Maternal anemia was associated with antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.36), postpartum infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.39-2.57), transfusion (adjusted odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.65-2.13) and stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.94), reduced odds of postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86-0.98) and low birthweight (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.86). No other outcomes were statistically significant. This study shows the incidence of antenatal anemia is decreasing steadily within this Scottish population. However, given that anemia is a readily correctable risk factor for major causes of morbidity and mortality in the UK, further work is required to investigate appropriate preventive measures. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Opioid analgesia in mechanically ventilated children: results from the multicenter Measuring Opioid Tolerance Induced by Fentanyl study.

PubMed

Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Clark, Amy E; Willson, Douglas F; Berger, John; Meert, Kathleen L; Zimmerman, Jerry J; Harrison, Rick; Carcillo, Joseph A; Newth, Christopher J L; Bisping, Stephanie; Holubkov, Richard; Dean, J Michael; Nicholson, Carol E

2013-01-01

To examine the clinical factors associated with increased opioid dose among mechanically ventilated children in the pediatric intensive care unit. Prospective, observational study with 100% accrual of eligible patients. Seven pediatric intensive care units from tertiary-care children's hospitals in the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. Four hundred nineteen children treated with morphine or fentanyl infusions. None. Data on opioid use, concomitant therapy, demographic and explanatory variables were collected. Significant variability occurred in clinical practices, with up to 100-fold differences in baseline opioid doses, average daily or total doses, or peak infusion rates. Opioid exposure for 7 or 14 days required doubling of the daily opioid dose in 16% patients (95% confidence interval 12%-19%) and 20% patients (95% confidence interval 16%-24%), respectively. Among patients receiving opioids for longer than 3 days (n = 225), this occurred in 28% (95% confidence interval 22%-33%) and 35% (95% confidence interval 29%-41%) by 7 or 14 days, respectively. Doubling of the opioid dose was more likely to occur following opioid infusions for 7 days or longer (odds ratio 7.9, 95% confidence interval 4.3-14.3; p < 0.001) or co-therapy with midazolam (odds ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4-12.9; p < 0.001), and it was less likely to occur if morphine was used as the primary opioid (vs. fentanyl) (odds ratio 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.25-0.92; p = 0.03), for patients receiving higher initial doses (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98; p < 0.001), or if patients had prior pediatric intensive care unit admissions (odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.89; p = 0.03). Mechanically ventilated children require increasing opioid doses, often associated with prolonged opioid exposure or the need for additional sedation. Efforts to reduce prolonged opioid exposure and clinical practice variation may prevent the complications of opioid therapy.

Estimation of aquifer scale proportion using equal area grids: assessment of regional scale groundwater quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belitz, Kenneth; Jurgens, Bryant C.; Landon, Matthew K.; Fram, Miranda S.; Johnson, Tyler D.

2010-01-01

The proportion of an aquifer with constituent concentrations above a specified threshold (high concentrations) is taken as a nondimensional measure of regional scale water quality. If computed on the basis of area, it can be referred to as the aquifer scale proportion. A spatially unbiased estimate of aquifer scale proportion and a confidence interval for that estimate are obtained through the use of equal area grids and the binomial distribution. Traditionally, the confidence interval for a binomial proportion is computed using either the standard interval or the exact interval. Research from the statistics literature has shown that the standard interval should not be used and that the exact interval is overly conservative. On the basis of coverage probability and interval width, the Jeffreys interval is preferred. If more than one sample per cell is available, cell declustering is used to estimate the aquifer scale proportion, and Kish's design effect may be useful for estimating an effective number of samples. The binomial distribution is also used to quantify the adequacy of a grid with a given number of cells for identifying a small target, defined as a constituent that is present at high concentrations in a small proportion of the aquifer. Case studies illustrate a consistency between approaches that use one well per grid cell and many wells per cell. The methods presented in this paper provide a quantitative basis for designing a sampling program and for utilizing existing data.

Education level and inequalities in stroke reperfusion therapy: observations in the Swedish stroke register.

PubMed

Stecksén, Anna; Glader, Eva-Lotta; Asplund, Kjell; Norrving, Bo; Eriksson, Marie

2014-09-01

Previous studies have revealed inequalities in stroke treatment based on demographics, hospital type, and region. We used the Swedish Stroke Register (Riksstroke) to test whether patient education level is associated with reperfusion (either or both of thrombolysis and thrombectomy) treatment. We included 85 885 patients with ischemic stroke aged 18 to 80 years registered in Riksstroke between 2003 and 2009. Education level was retrieved from Statistics Sweden, and thrombolysis, thrombectomy, patient, and hospital data were obtained from Riksstroke. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyze the association between reperfusion therapy and patient education. A total of 3649 (4.2%) of the patients received reperfusion therapy. University-educated patients were more likely to be treated (5.5%) than patients with secondary (4.6%) or primary education (3.6%; P<0.001). The inequality associated with education was still present after adjustment for patient characteristics; university education odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.26 and secondary education odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.17 compared with primary education. Higher hospital specialization level was also associated with higher reperfusion levels (P<0.001). In stratified multivariable analyses by hospital type, significant treatment differences by education level existed only among large nonuniversity hospitals (university education odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.40; secondary education odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.29). We demonstrated a social stratification in reperfusion, partly explained by patient characteristics and the local hospital specialization level. Further studies should address treatment delays, stroke knowledge, and means to improve reperfusion implementation in less specialized hospitals. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Potassium intake and risk of stroke in women with hypertension and nonhypertension in the Women's Health Initiative.

PubMed

Seth, Arjun; Mossavar-Rahmani, Yasmin; Kamensky, Victor; Silver, Brian; Lakshminarayan, Kamakshi; Prentice, Ross; Van Horn, Linda; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia

2014-10-01

Dietary potassium has been associated with lower risk of stroke, but there are little data on dietary potassium effects on different stroke subtypes or in older women with hypertension and nonhypertension. The study population consisted of 90 137 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 at enrollment, free of stroke history at baseline, followed up prospectively for an average of 11 years. Outcome variables were total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke, and all-cause mortality. Incidence was compared across quartiles of dietary potassium intake, and hazard ratios were obtained from Cox proportional hazards models after adjusting for potential confounding variables, and in women with hypertension and nonhypertension separately. Mean dietary potassium intake was 2611 mg/d. Highest quartile of potassium intake was associated with lower incidence of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and total mortality. Multivariate analyses comparing highest to lowest quartile of potassium intake indicated a hazard ratio of 0.90 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.95) for all-cause mortality, 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.98) for all stroke, and 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.96) for ischemic stroke. The effect on ischemic stroke was more apparent in women with nonhypertension among whom there was a 27% lower risk with hazard ratio of 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.88), interaction P<0.10. There was no association with hemorrhagic stroke. High potassium intake is associated with a lower risk of all stroke and ischemic stroke, as well as all-cause mortality in older women, particularly those who are not hypertensive. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Effect of Intensive Versus Standard Clinic-Based Hypertension Management on Ambulatory Blood Pressure: Results From the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) Ambulatory Blood Pressure Study.

PubMed

Drawz, Paul E; Pajewski, Nicholas M; Bates, Jeffrey T; Bello, Natalie A; Cushman, William C; Dwyer, Jamie P; Fine, Lawrence J; Goff, David C; Haley, William E; Krousel-Wood, Marie; McWilliams, Andrew; Rifkin, Dena E; Slinin, Yelena; Taylor, Addison; Townsend, Raymond; Wall, Barry; Wright, Jackson T; Rahman, Mahboob

2017-01-01

The effect of clinic-based intensive hypertension treatment on ambulatory blood pressure (BP) is unknown. The goal of the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) ambulatory BP ancillary study was to evaluate the effect of intensive versus standard clinic-based BP targets on ambulatory BP. Ambulatory BP was obtained within 3 weeks of the 27-month study visit in 897 SPRINT participants. Intensive treatment resulted in lower clinic systolic BP (mean difference between groups=16.0 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 14.1-17.8 mm Hg), nighttime systolic BP (mean difference=9.6 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 7.7-11.5 mm Hg), daytime systolic BP (mean difference=12.3 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 10.6-13.9 mm Hg), and 24-hour systolic BP (mean difference=11.2 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 9.7-12.8 mm Hg). The night/day systolic BP ratio was similar between the intensive (0.92±0.09) and standard-treatment groups (0.91±0.09). There was considerable lack of agreement within participants between clinic systolic BP and daytime ambulatory systolic BP with wide limits of agreement on Bland-Altman plots. In conclusion, targeting a systolic BP of <120 mm Hg, when compared with <140 mm Hg, resulted in lower nighttime, daytime, and 24-hour systolic BP, but did not change the night/day systolic BP ratio. Ambulatory BP monitoring may be required to assess the effect of targeted hypertension therapy on out of office BP. Further studies are needed to assess whether targeting hypertension therapy based on ambulatory BP improves clinical outcomes. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01835249. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Abnormal P-Wave Axis and Ischemic Stroke: The ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities).

PubMed

Maheshwari, Ankit; Norby, Faye L; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Koene, Ryan J; Rooney, Mary R; O'Neal, Wesley T; Alonso, Alvaro; Chen, Lin Y

2017-08-01

Abnormal P-wave axis (aPWA) has been linked to incident atrial fibrillation and mortality; however, the relationship between aPWA and stroke has not been reported. We hypothesized that aPWA is associated with ischemic stroke independent of atrial fibrillation and other stroke risk factors and tested our hypothesis in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities), a community-based prospective cohort study. We included 15 102 participants (aged 54.2±5.7 years; 55.2% women; 26.5% blacks) who attended the baseline examination (1987-1989) and without prevalent stroke. We defined aPWA as any value outside 0 to 75° using 12-lead ECGs obtained during study visits. Each case of incident ischemic stroke was classified in accordance with criteria from the National Survey of Stroke by a computer algorithm and adjudicated by physician review. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of aPWA with stroke. During a mean follow-up of 20.2 years, there were 657 incident ischemic stroke cases. aPWA was independently associated with a 1.50-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.85) increased risk of ischemic stroke in the multivariable model that included atrial fibrillation. When subtyped, aPWA was associated with a 2.04-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.42-2.95) increased risk of cardioembolic stroke and a 1.32-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.71) increased risk of thrombotic stroke. aPWA is independently associated with ischemic stroke. This association seems to be stronger for cardioembolic strokes. Collectively, our findings suggest that alterations in atrial electric activation may predispose to cardiac thromboembolism independent of atrial fibrillation. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

2012-01-01

The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnette, J. Jackson

2005-01-01

An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

1991-01-01

A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

Variance estimates and confidence intervals for the Kappa measure of classification accuracy

Treesearch

M. A. Kalkhan; R. M. Reich; R. L. Czaplewski

1997-01-01

The Kappa statistic is frequently used to characterize the results of an accuracy assessment used to evaluate land use and land cover classifications obtained by remotely sensed data. This statistic allows comparisons of alternative sampling designs, classification algorithms, photo-interpreters, and so forth. In order to make these comparisons, it is...

Depressive symptoms in nonresident african american fathers and involvement with their sons.

PubMed

Davis, R Neal; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Clark, Sarah J; Davis, Matthew M

2009-12-01

Our objective was to determine whether paternal depressive symptoms were associated with less father involvement among African American fathers not living with their children (ie, nonresident fathers). We analyzed survey data for 345 fathers enrolled in a program for nonresident African American fathers and their preteen sons. Father involvement included measures of contact, closeness, monitoring, communication, and conflict. We used bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analysis to examine associations between father involvement and depressive symptoms. Thirty-six percent of fathers reported moderate depressive symptoms, and 11% reported severe depressive symptoms. In bivariate analyses, depressive symptoms were associated with less contact, less closeness, low monitoring, and increased conflict. In multivariate analyses controlling for basic demographic features, fathers with moderate depressive symptoms were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-2.8]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.5]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.2]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-3.6]). Fathers with severe depressive symptoms also were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 3.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-7.2]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.7]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-7.1]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-5.9]). Paternal depressive symptoms may be an important, but modifiable, barrier for nonresident African American fathers willing to be more involved with their children.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Steiner, Markus Fc; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. A retrospective, cohort study. Scotland. 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73-86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56-84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136-169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56-82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120-175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39-74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18-53) was better than the reference population. Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Risk factors of childhood asthma in children attending Lyari General Hospital.

PubMed

Kamran, Amber; Hanif, Shahina; Murtaza, Ghulam

2015-06-01

To determine the factors associated with asthma in children. The case-control study was conducted in the paediatrics clinic of Lyari General Hospital, Karachi, from May to October 2010. Children 1-15 years of age attending the clinic represented the cases, while the control group had children who were closely related (sibling or cousin) to the cases but did not have the symptoms of disease at the time. Data was collected through a proforma and analysed using SPSS 10. Of the total 346 subjects, 173(50%) each comprised the two groups. According to univariable analysis the risk factors were presence of at least one smoker (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-5.8), resident of kacha house (odds ratio: 16.2; 95% confidence interval: 3.8-69.5),living in room without windows (odds ratio: 9.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-40.9) and living in houses without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-2.4).Using multivariable modelling, family history of asthma (odds ratio: 5.9; 95% confidence interval: 3.1-11.6), presence of at least one smoker at home (odds ratio: 4.1; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-7.2), people living in a room without a window (odds ratio: 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-26.3) and people living in an area without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-4.31) were found to be independent risk factors of asthma in children adjusting for age, gender and history of weaning. Family history of asthma, children living with at least one smoker at home, room without windows and people living in an area without sunlight were major risk factors of childhood asthma.

Peaks Over Threshold (POT): A methodology for automatic threshold estimation using goodness of fit p-value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solari, Sebastián.; Egüen, Marta; Polo, María. José; Losada, Miguel A.

2017-04-01

Threshold estimation in the Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method and the impact of the estimation method on the calculation of high return period quantiles and their uncertainty (or confidence intervals) are issues that are still unresolved. In the past, methods based on goodness of fit tests and EDF-statistics have yielded satisfactory results, but their use has not yet been systematized. This paper proposes a methodology for automatic threshold estimation, based on the Anderson-Darling EDF-statistic and goodness of fit test. When combined with bootstrapping techniques, this methodology can be used to quantify both the uncertainty of threshold estimation and its impact on the uncertainty of high return period quantiles. This methodology was applied to several simulated series and to four precipitation/river flow data series. The results obtained confirmed its robustness. For the measured series, the estimated thresholds corresponded to those obtained by nonautomatic methods. Moreover, even though the uncertainty of the threshold estimation was high, this did not have a significant effect on the width of the confidence intervals of high return period quantiles.

Exposure to diesel and gasoline engine emissions and the risk of lung cancer.

PubMed

Parent, Marie-Elise; Rousseau, Marie-Claude; Boffetta, Paolo; Cohen, Aaron; Siemiatycki, Jack

2007-01-01

Pollution from motor vehicles constitutes a major environmental health problem. The present paper describes associations between diesel and gasoline engine emissions and lung cancer, as evidenced in a 1979-1985 population-based case-control study in Montreal, Canada. Cases were 857 male lung cancer patients. Controls were 533 population controls and 1,349 patients with other cancer types. Subjects were interviewed to obtain a detailed lifetime job history and relevant data on potential confounders. Industrial hygienists translated each job description into indices of exposure to several agents, including engine emissions. There was no evidence of excess risks of lung cancer with exposure to gasoline exhaust. For diesel engine emissions, results differed by control group. When cancer controls were considered, there was no excess risk. When population controls were studied, the odds ratios, after adjustments for potential confounders, were 1.2 (95% confidence interval: 0.8, 1.8) for any exposure and 1.6 (95% confidence interval: 0.9, 2.8) for substantial exposure. Confidence intervals between risk estimates derived from the two control groups overlapped considerably. These results provide some limited support for the hypothesis of an excess lung cancer risk due to diesel exhaust but no support for an increase in risk due to gasoline exhaust.

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Risk factors for low birth weight according to the multiple logistic regression model. A retrospective cohort study in José María Morelos municipality, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Franco Monsreal, José; Tun Cobos, Miriam Del Ruby; Hernández Gómez, José Ricardo; Serralta Peraza, Lidia Esther Del Socorro

2018-01-17

Low birth weight has been an enigma for science over time. There have been many researches on its causes and its effects. Low birth weight is an indicator that predicts the probability of a child surviving. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. Multiple logistic regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for the analysis of data in both clinical and epidemiology settings, as well as in public health. To assess in a multivariate fashion the importance of 17 independent variables in low birth weight (dependent variable) of children born in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Analytical observational epidemiological cohort study with retrospective temporality. Births that met the inclusion criteria occurred in the "Hospital Integral Jose Maria Morelos" of the Ministry of Health corresponding to the Maya municipality of Jose Maria Morelos during the period from August 1, 2014 to July 31, 2015. The total number of newborns recorded was 1,147; 84 of which (7.32%) had low birth weight. To estimate the independent association between the explanatory variables (potential risk factors) and the response variable, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software. In ascending numerical order values of odds ratio > 1 indicated the positive contribution of explanatory variables or possible risk factors: "unmarried" marital status (1.076, 95% confidence interval: 0.550 to 2.104); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.08, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 1.84); history of abortion(s) (1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.44 to 2.93); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 2.76); number of prenatal consultations ≤ 5 (1.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.94 to 3.66); maternal age ≥ 36 years (3.5, 95% confidence interval: 0.40 to 30.47); maternal age ≤ 19 years (3.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 29.87); number of deliveries = 1 (3.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 44.85); personal pathological history (4.78, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 10.59); pathological obstetric history (5.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.66 to 15.18); maternal height < 150 cm (5.16, 95% confidence interval: 3.08 to 8.65); number of births ≥ 5 (5.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.51 to 69.99); and smoking (15.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 227.97). Four of the independent variables (personal pathological history, obstetric pathological history, maternal stature <150 centimeters and smoking) showed a significant positive contribution, thus they can be considered as clear risk factors for low birth weight. The use of the logistic regression model in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, will allow estimating the probability of low birth weight for each pregnant woman in the future, which will be useful for the health authorities of the region.

Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

2000-01-01

In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oranje, Andreas

2006-01-01

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Alternative methods to evaluate trial level surrogacy.

PubMed

Abrahantes, Josè Cortiñas; Shkedy, Ziv; Molenberghs, Geert

2008-01-01

The evaluation and validation of surrogate endpoints have been extensively studied in the last decade. Prentice [1] and Freedman, Graubard and Schatzkin [2] laid the foundations for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in randomized clinical trials. Later, Buyse et al. [5] proposed a meta-analytic methodology, producing different methods for different settings, which was further studied by Alonso and Molenberghs [9], in their unifying approach based on information theory. In this article, we focus our attention on the trial-level surrogacy and propose alternative procedures to evaluate such surrogacy measure, which do not pre-specify the type of association. A promising correction based on cross-validation is investigated. As well as the construction of confidence intervals for this measure. In order to avoid making assumption about the type of relationship between the treatment effects and its distribution, a collection of alternative methods, based on regression trees, bagging, random forests, and support vector machines, combined with bootstrap-based confidence interval and, should one wish, in conjunction with a cross-validation based correction, will be proposed and applied. We apply the various strategies to data from three clinical studies: in opthalmology, in advanced colorectal cancer, and in schizophrenia. The results obtained for the three case studies are compared; they indicate that using random forest or bagging models produces larger estimated values for the surrogacy measure, which are in general stabler and the confidence interval narrower than linear regression and support vector regression. For the advanced colorectal cancer studies, we even found the trial-level surrogacy is considerably different from what has been reported. In general the alternative methods are more computationally demanding, and specially the calculation of the confidence intervals, require more computational time that the delta-method counterpart. First, more flexible modeling techniques can be used, allowing for other type of association. Second, when no cross-validation-based correction is applied, overly optimistic trial-level surrogacy estimates will be found, thus cross-validation is highly recommendable. Third, the use of the delta method to calculate confidence intervals is not recommendable since it makes assumptions valid only in very large samples. It may also produce range-violating limits. We therefore recommend alternatives: bootstrap methods in general. Also, the information-theoretic approach produces comparable results with the bagging and random forest approaches, when cross-validation correction is applied. It is also important to observe that, even for the case in which the linear model might be a good option too, bagging methods perform well too, and their confidence intervals were more narrow.

Factors associated with the health and nutritional status of children under 5 years of age in Afghanistan: family behaviour related to women and past experience of war-related hardships.

PubMed

Mashal, Taufiq; Takano, Takehito; Nakamura, Keiko; Kizuki, Masashi; Hemat, Shafiqullah; Watanabe, Masafumi; Seino, Kaoruko

2008-08-29

The present study was performed to assess, beyond socio-economic factors, independent associations between the health and nutritional status of children under 5 years old and (1) family behavioural factors related to women with regard to child care and (2) war-related experience by the household of hardships in Afghanistan. The subjects were all children born during the previous 5 years from 1400 households in Kabul Province, Afghanistan and were selected by multistage sampling in March 2006. Height and weight measurements of the children and culturally sensitive interviews with their mothers were conducted by household visits. Child mortality, morbidity and nutritional status were evaluated. Four areas were assessed as variables for family behavioural factors related to women: education of mothers, child marriage of the mothers, maternal autonomy in obtaining healthcare for children and preference for a female physician. Hardships experienced by the family were examined by determining their satisfaction of basic material needs and by any experience of being forced to leave a preferred residence. A total of 2474 children from 1327 households completed the examinations and interviews; among them, 101 children were deceased by the time of the interview visits. Diarrhoea (32.5%) and acute respiratory infection (41.0%) were common child health problems and both emaciation (12.4%) and linear growth retardation (39.9%) were prevalent. Regardless of the influence of economic, demographic, family behavioural or hardships experience factors, a lack of maternal autonomy (79.1%) was associated with the occurrence of acute respiratory infection (odds-ratio = 1.72; 95% confidence interval = 1.23, 2.40), and linear growth retardation of children (odds-ratio = 1.38; 95% confidence interval = 1.01, 1.90); a lack of education of the mother (71.7%) and child marriage of the mothers (18.3%) were associated with diarrhoea (odds-ratio = 1.84; 95% confidence interval = 1.40, 2.41; odds-ratio = 1.46; 95% confidence interval = 1.08, 1.96, respectively); a shortage of basic material needs (59.1%) was associated with diarrhoea (odds-ratio = 1.35; 95% confidence interval = 1.08, 1.68); and migration inside the country (52.9%) was associated with underweight children (odds-ratio = 2.48; 95% confidence interval = 1.13, 5.44). A lack of education of the mothers, child marriage, lack of maternal autonomy, shortage of basic material needs and internal displacement showed independent and significant negative associations with child health and nutritional variables in this country that has experienced a long period of conflict.

Markov chains for testing redundant software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.; Sjogren, Jon A.

1988-01-01

A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

Patient, surgeon, and hospital disparities associated with benign hysterectomy approach and perioperative complications.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Hutfless, Susan; Makary, Martin A; Sinno, Abdulrahman K; Tanner, Edward J; Stone, Rebecca L; Wang, Karen; Fader, Amanda N

2017-05-01

Hysterectomy is among the most common major surgical procedures performed in women. Approximately 450,000 hysterectomy procedures are performed each year in the United States for benign indications. However, little is known regarding contemporary US hysterectomy trends for women with benign disease with respect to operative technique and perioperative complications, and the association between these 2 factors with patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics. We sought to describe contemporary hysterectomy trends and explore associations between patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics with surgical approach and perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by general gynecologists from July 2012 through September 2014 were analyzed in the all-payer Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. We excluded hysterectomies performed by gynecologic oncologists, reproductive endocrinologists, and female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgeons. We included both open hysterectomies and those performed by minimally invasive surgery, which included vaginal hysterectomies. Perioperative complications were defined using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators. Surgeon hysterectomy volume during the 2-year study period was analyzed (0-5 cases annually = very low, 6-10 = low, 11-20 = medium, and ≥21 = high). We utilized logistic regression and negative binomial regression to identify patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics associated with minimally invasive surgery utilization and perioperative complications, respectively. A total of 5660 hospitalizations were identified during the study period. Most patients (61.5%) had an open hysterectomy; 38.5% underwent a minimally invasive surgery procedure (25.1% robotic, 46.6% laparoscopic, 28.3% vaginal). Most surgeons (68.2%) were very low- or low-volume surgeons. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing minimally invasive surgery included older patient age (reference 45-64 years; 20-44 years: adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28), black race (reference white; adjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.78), Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.80), smaller hospital (reference large; small: adjusted odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.45; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.96), medium hospital hysterectomy volume (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 100-200: adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87), and medium vs high surgeon volume (reference high; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). Complications occurred in 25.8% of open and 8.2% of minimally invasive hysterectomies (P < .0001). Minimally invasive hysterectomy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.27) and large hysterectomy volume hospitals (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 1-100: adjusted odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-3.20; 101-200: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.16) were associated with fewer complications, while patient payer, including Medicare (reference private; adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.61), Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.04), and self-pay status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.12), and very-low and low surgeon hysterectomy volume (reference ≥21 cases; 1-5 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.47; 6-10 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.23) were associated with perioperative complications. Use of minimally invasive hysterectomy for benign indications remains variable, with most patients undergoing open, more morbid procedures. Older and black patients and smaller hospitals are associated with open hysterectomy. Patient race and payer status, hysterectomy approach, and surgeon volume were associated with perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by high-volume surgeons or by minimally invasive techniques may represent an opportunity to reduce preventable harm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Funding policies and postabortion long-acting reversible contraception: results from a cluster randomized trial.

PubMed

Rocca, Corinne H; Thompson, Kirsten M J; Goodman, Suzan; Westhoff, Carolyn L; Harper, Cynthia C

2016-06-01

Almost one-half of women having an abortion in the United States have had a previous procedure, which highlights a failure to provide adequate preventive care. Provision of intrauterine devices and implants, which have high upfront costs, can be uniquely challenging in the abortion care setting. We conducted a study of a clinic-wide training intervention on long-acting reversible contraception and examined the effect of the intervention, insurance coverage, and funding policies on the use of long-acting contraceptives after an abortion. This subanalysis of a cluster, randomized trial examines data from the 648 patients who had undergone an abortion who were recruited from 17 reproductive health centers across the United States. The trial followed participants 18-25 years old who did not desire pregnancy for a year. We measured the effect of the intervention, health insurance, and funding policies on contraceptive outcomes, which included intrauterine device and implant counseling and selection at the abortion visit, with the use of logistic regression with generalized estimating equations for clustering. We used survival analysis to model the actual initiation of these methods over 1 year. Women who obtained abortion care at intervention sites were more likely to report intrauterine device and implant counseling (70% vs 41%; adjusted odds ratio, 3.83; 95% confidence interval, 2.37-6.19) and the selection of these methods (36% vs 21%; adjusted odds ratio, 2.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.39-3.21). However, the actual initiation of methods was similar between study arms (22/100 woman-years each; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-1.51). Health insurance and funding policies were important for the initiation of intrauterine devices and implants. Compared with uninsured women, those women with public health insurance had a far higher initiation rate (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-3.62). Women at sites that provide state Medicaid enrollees abortion coverage also had a higher initiation rate (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-2.88), as did those at sites with state mandates for private health insurance to cover contraception (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-3.07). Few of the women with private insurance used it to pay for the abortion (28%), but those who did initiated long-acting contraceptive methods at almost twice the rate as women who paid for it themselves or with donated funds (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-3.43). The clinic-wide training increased long-acting reversible contraceptive counseling and selection but did not change initiation for abortion patients. Long-acting method use after abortion was associated strongly with funding. Restrictions on the coverage of abortion and contraceptives in abortion settings prevent the initiation of desired long-acting methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in a psychiatric hospital in Mexico.

PubMed

Díaz-Castro, Lina; Cabello-Rangel, Héctor; Cuevas-Pineda, Guillermo J; Reza-Garduño, Horacio; Castañeda-González, Carlos J

2011-01-01

The metabolic syndrome (MS) is formed by elevated blood pressure, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemía, hyperglycemia and abdominal obesity. Mexico occupies the second place worldwide in prevalence of obesity. It has been reported that the use of psychopharmaceuticals increase the risk of MS. To detect prevalence of MS in patients with a psychiatric diagnosis with or without psychopharmaceutical treatment. An observational, descriptive study was designed. Informed consent was obtained, enrolling a sample of 216 patients in the six-month period, all of them over 18 years of age. The following variables were measured: blood pressure, weight, height, waist circumference, triglyceride, glucose and high-density lipoprotein serum levels, by colorimetric enzyme assay in Roche analyzer. Student's t-test, and Cochran-Mantel- Haenszel and Fisher's exact test. A total of 50% of the sample had a waist circumference >88 cm; 10% glycemia superior to 110 mg/dl, 30% triglycerides >150 mg/dl; 14% met the MS criteria. When patients with and without MS were grouped, and glucose and triglycerides were compared, a p 0.0001 was obtained. With a 93.4% confidence interval, the relationship between sedentary life and MS was accepted. Women, aged 40-59 years tended to have MS, with 98.4% CI. The only family background associated to MS was obesity (97.7% CI). There is a positive relationship between MS and the use of typical or atypical antipsychotics. SSRIs are significantly related with MS: p 0.072 and 91.5% confidence interval, benzodiazepines with p 0.073 and 92.7% confidence interval. Only 14% of the sample had MS. Psychopharmaceuticals were associated to MS, women between 40 to 59 years having a greater risk.

Bronchiolitis in US emergency departments 1992 to 2000: epidemiology and practice variation.

PubMed

Mansbach, Jonathan M; Emond, Jennifer A; Camargo, Carlos A

2005-04-01

To describe the epidemiology of US emergency department (ED) visits for bronchiolitis, including the characteristics of children presenting to the ED and the variability in bronchiolitis care in the ED. Data were obtained from the 1992 to 2000 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. Cases had International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification code 466 and were younger than 2 years. National estimates were obtained using assigned patient visit weights; 95% confidence intervals were calculated using the relative standard error of the estimate; analysis used chi2 and logistic regression. From 1992 to 2000, bronchiolitis accounted for approximately 1,868,000 ED visits for children younger than 2 years. Among this same age group, the overall rate was 26 (95% confidence interval 22-31) per 1000 US population and 31 (95% confidence interval 26-36) per 1000 ED visits. These rates were stable over the 9-year period. Comparing children with bronchiolitis to those presenting with other problems, children with bronchiolitis were more likely boys (61% vs. 53%; P = 0.01) and Hispanic (27% vs. 20%; P = 0.008). Therapeutic interventions varied and 19% were admitted to the hospital. The multivariate predictor for receiving systemic steroids was urgent/emergent status at triage (odds ratio 4.0, 1.9-8.4). Multivariate predictors for admission were Hispanic ethnicity (odds ratio 2.3, 1.1-5.0) and urgent/emergent status at triage (odds ratio 3.7, 2.0-6.9). ED visit rates for bronchiolitis among children younger than 2 years were stable between 1992 and 2000. The observed ED practice variation demonstrates that children are receiving medications for which there is little supporting evidence. Boys and Hispanics are at-risk groups for presentation to the ED, and Hispanics are more likely to be hospitalized.

Opioid Analgesics and Adverse Outcomes among Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Ishida, Julie H; McCulloch, Charles E; Steinman, Michael A; Grimes, Barbara A; Johansen, Kirsten L

2018-05-07

Patients on hemodialysis frequently experience pain and may be particularly vulnerable to opioid-related complications. However, data evaluating the risks of opioid use in patients on hemodialysis are limited. Using the US Renal Data System, we conducted a cohort study evaluating the association between opioid use (modeled as a time-varying exposure and expressed in standardized oral morphine equivalents) and time to first emergency room visit or hospitalization for altered mental status, fall, and fracture among 140,899 Medicare-covered adults receiving hemodialysis in 2011. We evaluated risk according to average daily total opioid dose (>60 mg, ≤60 mg, and per 60-mg dose increment) and specific agents (per 60-mg dose increment). The median age was 61 years old, 52% were men, and 50% were white. Sixty-four percent received opioids, and 17% had an episode of altered mental status (15,658 events), fall (7646 events), or fracture (4151 events) in 2011. Opioid use was associated with risk for all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner: altered mental status (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.34; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 1.78; hazard ratio, 1.29 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.33), fall (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.36; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.61; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.05), and fracture (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.33 to 1.56; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.44 to 1.89; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.05). All agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of altered mental status, and several agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of fall and fracture. Opioids were associated with adverse outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, and this risk was present even at lower dosing and for agents that guidelines have recommended for use. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Pregnancy outcome in joint hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Sundelin, Heléne E K; Stephansson, Olof; Johansson, Kari; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-01-01

An increased risk of preterm birth in women with joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is suspected. In this nationwide cohort study from 1997 through 2011, women with either joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome or both disorders were identified through the Swedish Patient Register, and linked to the Medical Birth Register. Thereby, 314 singleton births to women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome before delivery were identified. These births were compared with 1 247 864 singleton births to women without a diagnosis of joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. We used logistic regression, adjusted for maternal age, smoking, parity, and year of birth, to calculate adjusted odds ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome was not associated with any of our outcomes: preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.2), preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-2.2), cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.2), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.2-7.9), low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.7-3.6), small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4-1.8) or large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6-2.1). Examining only women with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (n = 62), we found a higher risk of induction of labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.6) and amniotomy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.0-7.1). No excess risks for adverse pregnancy outcome were seen in joint hypermobility syndrome. Women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome do not seem to be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2016-09-20

Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire's internal consistency was moderate (Cronbach's alpha = 0.56). The pilot-phase shows promising results concerning acceptability and feasibility. Pilot randomised controlled trial results indicate that the patient information is well understood and that knowledge gain on confidence intervals can be assessed with a set of six questions. German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00008561 . Registered 8th of June 2015.

Ethnic Differences in Incidence and Outcomes of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome.

PubMed

Banh, Tonny H M; Hussain-Shamsy, Neesha; Patel, Viral; Vasilevska-Ristovska, Jovanka; Borges, Karlota; Sibbald, Cathryn; Lipszyc, Deborah; Brooke, Josefina; Geary, Denis; Langlois, Valerie; Reddon, Michele; Pearl, Rachel; Levin, Leo; Piekut, Monica; Licht, Christoph P B; Radhakrishnan, Seetha; Aitken-Menezes, Kimberly; Harvey, Elizabeth; Hebert, Diane; Piscione, Tino D; Parekh, Rulan S

2016-10-07

Ethnic differences in outcomes among children with nephrotic syndrome are unknown. We conducted a longitudinal study at a single regional pediatric center comparing ethnic differences in incidence from 2001 to 2011 census data and longitudinal outcomes, including relapse rates, time to first relapse, frequently relapsing disease, and use of cyclophosphamide. Among 711 children, 24% were European, 33% were South Asian, 10% were East/Southeast Asian, and 33% were of other origins. Over 10 years, the overall incidence increased from 1.99/100,000 to 4.71/100,000 among children ages 1-18 years old. In 2011, South Asians had a higher incidence rate ratio of 6.61 (95% confidence interval, 3.16 to 15.1) compared with Europeans. East/Southeast Asians had a similar incidence rate ratio (0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 2.94) to Europeans. We determined outcomes in 455 children from the three largest ethnic groups with steroid-sensitive disease over a median of 4 years. South Asian and East/Southeast Asian children had significantly lower odds of frequently relapsing disease at 12 months (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.77; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 0.51), fewer subsequent relapses (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.81; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 0.91), lower risk of a first relapse (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.83; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.68), and lower use of cyclophosphamide (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.53 to 1.28; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.71) compared with European children. Despite the higher incidence among South Asians, South and East/Southeast Asian children have significantly less complicated clinical outcomes compared with Europeans. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2017-02-01

With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

Rates and determinants of informed consent: a case study of an international thromboprophylaxis trial.

PubMed

Smith, Orla M; McDonald, Ellen; Zytaruk, Nicole; Foster, Denise; Matte, Andrea; Clarke, France; Meade, Laurie; O'Callaghan, Nicole; Vallance, Shirley; Galt, Pauline; Rajbhandari, Dorrilyn; Rocha, Marcelo; Mehta, Sangeeta; Ferguson, Niall D; Hall, Richard; Fowler, Robert; Burns, Karen; Qushmaq, Ismael; Ostermann, Marlies; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Cook, Deborah

2013-02-01

Successful completion of randomized trials depends upon efficiently and ethically screening patients and obtaining informed consent. Awareness of modifiable barriers to obtaining consent may inform ongoing and future trials. The objective of this study is to describe and examine determinants of consent rates in an international heparin thromboprophylaxis trial (Prophylaxis for ThromboEmbolism in Critical Care Trial, clinicaltrials.gov NCT00182143). Throughout the 4-year trial, research personnel approached eligible critically ill patients or their substitute decision makers for informed consent. Whether consent was obtained or declined was documented daily. The trial was conducted in 67 centers in 6 countries. A total of 3764 patients were randomized. The overall consent rate was 82.2% (range, 50%-100%) across participating centers. Consent was obtained from substitute decision makers and patients in 90.1% and 9.9% of cases, respectively. Five factors were independently associated with consent rates. Research coordinators with more experience achieved higher consent rates (odds ratio [OR], 3.43; 95% confidence interval, 2.42-4.86; P < .001 for those with >10 years of experience). Consent rates were higher in smaller intensive care units with less than 15 beds compared with intensive care units with 15 to 20 beds, 21 to 25 beds, and greater than 25 beds (all ORs, <0.5; P < .001) and were higher in centers with more than 1 full-time research staff (OR, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.99; P < .001). Consent rates were lower in centers affiliated with the Canadian Critical Care Trials Group or the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Clinical Trials Group compared with other centers (OR, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.42-0.77; P < .001). Finally, consent rates were highest during the pilot trial, lowest during the initiation of the full trial, and increased over years of recruitment (P < .001). Characteristics of study centers, research infrastructure, and experience were important factors associated with successfully procuring informed consent to participate in this thromboprophylaxis trial. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems. Ph.D. Thesis - George Washington Univ., Apr. 1985

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, P. C.

1986-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates.

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

2016-04-01

Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith's method provide nominal or close to nominal coverage when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05), as is the case in most community intervention trials. This study concludes that when a binary outcome variable is measured in a small number of large clusters, confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient may be constructed by dividing existing clusters into sub-clusters (e.g. groups of 5) and using Smith's method. The resulting confidence intervals provide nominal or close to nominal coverage across a wide range of parameters when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05). Application of this method should provide investigators with a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with a point estimator of the intraclass correlation coefficient used for determining the sample size needed for a newly designed community-based trial. © The Author(s) 2015.

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Fathy, Cherie; Kim, Jessica; Niemeyer, Katherine; Ramirez, David; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-11-01

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.

Virtual reality for improving balance in patients after stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Zhen; Han, Xiu-Guo; Sheng, Jing; Ma, Shao-Jun

2016-05-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of virtual reality interventions for improving balance in people after stroke. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Studies were obtained by searching the following databases: MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, Web of Science and CENTRAL. Two reviewers assessed studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed trial quality. Sixteen studies involving 428 participants were included. People who received virtual reality interventions showed marked improvements in Berg Balance Scale (mean difference: 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 0.09-2.83, P<0.05, I²=0%) and Timed Up and Go Test (mean difference: -1.62, 95% confidence interval: -3.07- -0.16, P<0.05, I²=24%) compared with controls. This meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials supports the use of virtual reality to improve balance after stroke. © The Author(s) 2015.

Is what Filipino children eat between meals associated with body mass index?

PubMed

Gonzalez-Suarez, Consuelo B; Lee-Pineda, Karen; Caralipio, Nenita D; Grimmer-Somers, Karen; Sibug, Eleanor O; Velasco, Zenaida F

2015-03-01

The study aimed to assess the association between childhood obesity and snacking. A total of 396 students in grades 4 to 6 enrolled in an elementary school in the Philippines were the participants in this study. Demographic profile; anthropometric measures of height, weight, body mass index; and information about snacking were gathered. Obese group had statistically more servings of sweetened drinks and low-quality snacks. Female obese subjects have statistically more servings at nighttime and greater total snack servings. For the whole cohort, the odds ratio of being overweight with high total snack servings was 2.12 (95% confidence interval = 1.25-3.62) whereas the odds ratio of being obese with calories obtained from snacking was 2.08 (95% confidence interval = 1.01-4.26). Nighttime snacks and bad-quality foods should be minimized. Moreover, reducing food portions at any snack time will protect children from being overweight. © 2013 APJPH.

Substantiating the concept of work strain: its implication for the assessment of work stressors.

PubMed

Szerencsi, Karolina; van Amelsvoort, Ludovic; Kant, Ijmert

2012-03-01

To assess which work stressors are substantially contributing to work strain and examine their relative contribution. We prospectively examined the association between work stressors and work strain, which was defined as employees reporting ill due to work stress. Relevant work stressors were combined into a stressor score with each stressor having its own relevance. Standardized odds ratios (SORs) were calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to compare the associations obtained between already existing scales and the stressor score with work strain. The stressor score yielded an SOR of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.49 to 2.41) for work strain, while psychological demands (JCQ) yielded an SOR of 1.46 (95% confidence interval: 1.09 to 1.88) for work strain. We were able to extend and substantiate the range of relevant work stressors into a more comprehensive measure, which should be used to optimize prevention strategies.

Job control, psychological demand, and farmworker health: evidence from the national agricultural workers survey.

PubMed

Grzywacz, Joseph G; Alterman, Toni; Gabbard, Susan; Shen, Rui; Nakamoto, Jorge; Carroll, Daniel J; Muntaner, Carles

2014-01-01

Improve understanding of the potential occupational health impact of how agricultural jobs are organized. Exposure to low job control, high psychological demands, and high job strain were hypothesized to have greater risk for poor self-rated physical health and elevated depressive symptoms. Cross-sectional data (N = 3691) obtained using the Work Organization and Psychosocial Factors module of the US National Agricultural Workers Survey fielded in 2009-2010. More than one fifth (22.4%) of farmworkers reported fair/poor health, and 8.7% reported elevated depressive symptoms. High psychological demand was associated with increased risk of fair/poor health (odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.4 to 2.2) and elevated depressive symptoms (odds ratio, 2.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.9 to 3.8). The organization of work in field agriculture may pose risks for poor occupational health outcomes among a vulnerable worker population.

Risk factors for urinary bladder cancer in Baluchistan.

PubMed

Ahmad, Muhammad Riaz; Pervaiz, Muhammad Khalid; Chawala, Javed Akhtar

2012-01-01

Urinary Bladder cancer is a life threatening and aggressive disease. This retrospective study was conducted in Baluchistan for assessing the risk factors for urinary bladder cancer. A questionnaire was developed in order to collect the requisite information about the characteristics like age, drinking habits, smoking history, family history of cancer and others factors. Interview method was used to obtain the information from 50 cases and 100 controls from two hospitals of the province. Binary logistic regression model was run to study the odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. The odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for cigarette smoking, fluid consumption and higher use of fruits were [26.064; 7.645-88.856], [0.161; 0.059-0.441], and [0.206; 0.059-0.725] respectively. The higher risk of urinary bladder cancer was observed in smokers as compared to non-smokers. Higher consumption of fluid and fruits are protective factors against the disease.

Occupational Exposure to Pesticides With Occupational Sun Exposure Increases the Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma.

PubMed

Fortes, Cristina; Mastroeni, Simona; Segatto M, Marjorie; Hohmann, Clarissa; Miligi, Lucia; Bakos, Lucio; Bonamigo, Renan

2016-04-01

The objective of the study was to examine the association between occupational exposure to pesticides and cutaneous melanoma, controlling for all possible confounders. A pooled analysis of two case-control studies was conducted in two different geographic areas (Italy and Brazil). Detailed pesticides exposure histories were obtained. Ever use of any pesticide was associated with a high risk of cutaneous melanoma (odds ratio 2.58; 95% confidence interval 1.18-5.65) in particular exposure to herbicides (glyphosate) and fungicides (mancozeb, maneb), after controlling for confounding factors. When subjects were exposed to both pesticides and occupational sun exposure, the risk increased even more (odds ratio 4.68; 95% confidence interval 1.29-17.0). The study suggests an augmented risk of cutaneous melanoma among subjects with exposure to pesticides, in particular among those exposed to occupational sun exposure.

Clinically significant weight gain 1 year after occupational back injury.

PubMed

Keeney, Benjamin J; Fulton-Kehoe, Deborah; Wickizer, Thomas M; Turner, Judith A; Chan, Kwun Chuen Gary; Franklin, Gary M

2013-03-01

To examine the incidence of clinically significant weight gain 1 year after occupational back injury, and risk factors for that gain. A cohort of Washington State workers with wage-replacement benefits for back injuries completed baseline and 1-year follow-up telephone interviews. We obtained additional measures from claims and medical records. Among 1263 workers, 174 (13.8%) reported clinically significant weight gain (≥7%) 1 year after occupational back injury. Women and workers who had more than 180 days on wage replacement at 1 year were twice as likely (adjusted odds ratio = 2.17, 95% confidence interval = 1.54 to 3.07; adjusted odds ratio = 2.40, 95% confidence interval = 1.63 to 3.53, respectively; both P < 0.001) to have clinically significant weight gain. Women and workers on wage replacement for more than 180 days may be susceptible to clinically significant weight gain after occupational back injury.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Age-dependent biochemical quantities: an approach for calculating reference intervals.

PubMed

Bjerner, J

2007-01-01

A parametric method is often preferred when calculating reference intervals for biochemical quantities, as non-parametric methods are less efficient and require more observations/study subjects. Parametric methods are complicated, however, because of three commonly encountered features. First, biochemical quantities seldom display a Gaussian distribution, and there must either be a transformation procedure to obtain such a distribution or a more complex distribution has to be used. Second, biochemical quantities are often dependent on a continuous covariate, exemplified by rising serum concentrations of MUC1 (episialin, CA15.3) with increasing age. Third, outliers often exert substantial influence on parametric estimations and therefore need to be excluded before calculations are made. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) currently recommends that confidence intervals be calculated for the reference centiles obtained. However, common statistical packages allowing for the adjustment of a continuous covariate do not make this calculation. In the method described in the current study, Tukey's fence is used to eliminate outliers and two-stage transformations (modulus-exponential-normal) in order to render Gaussian distributions. Fractional polynomials are employed to model functions for mean and standard deviations dependent on a covariate, and the model is selected by maximum likelihood. Confidence intervals are calculated for the fitted centiles by combining parameter estimation and sampling uncertainties. Finally, the elimination of outliers was made dependent on covariates by reiteration. Though a good knowledge of statistical theory is needed when performing the analysis, the current method is rewarding because the results are of practical use in patient care.

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Singer, Marc A; Nelson, Richard L

2002-12-01

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries is an appealing management option; however, uncertainty about its safety persists. This study was conducted to compare the morbidity and mortality of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries by use of a meta-analysis of randomized, prospective trials. We searched for prospective, randomized trials in MEDLINE (1966 to November 2001), the Cochrane Library, and EMBase using the terms colon, penetrating, injury, colostomy, prospective, and randomized. Studies were included if they were randomized, controlled trials that compared the outcomes of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries. Five studies were included. Reviewers performed data extraction independently. Outcomes evaluated from each trial included mortality, total complications, infectious complications, intra-abdominal infections, wound complications, penetrating abdominal trauma index, and length of stay. Peto odds ratios for combined effect were calculated with a 95 percent confidence interval for each outcome. Heterogeneity was also assessed for each outcome. The penetrating abdominal trauma index of included subjects did not differ significantly between studies. Mortality was not significantly different between groups (odds ratio, 1.70; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51-5.66). However, total complications (odds ratio, 0.28; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.18-0.42), total infectious complications (odds ratio, 0.41; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.27-0.63), abdominal infections including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.59; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.38-0.94), abdominal infections excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.52; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.31-0.86), wound complications including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.55; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.34-0.89), and wound complications excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.43; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.25-0.76) all significantly favored primary repair. Meta-analysis of currently published randomized, controlled trials favors primary repair over fecal diversion for penetrating colon injuries.

Bullying and mental health and suicidal behaviour among 14- to 15-year-olds in a representative sample of Australian children.

PubMed

Ford, Rebecca; King, Tania; Priest, Naomi; Kavanagh, Anne

2017-09-01

To provide the first Australian population-based estimates of the association between bullying and adverse mental health outcomes and suicidality among Australian adolescents. Analysis of data from 3537 adolescents, aged 14-15 years from Wave 6 of the K-cohort of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children was conducted. We used Poisson and linear regression to estimate associations between bullying type (none, relational-verbal, physical, both types) and role (no role, victim, bully, victim and bully), and mental health (measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, symptoms of anxiety and depression) and suicidality. Adolescents involved in bullying had significantly increased Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, depression and anxiety scores in all bullying roles and types. In terms of self-harm and suicidality, bully-victims had the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval [3.26, 6.83]), suicidal ideation (prevalence rate ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval [2.83, 6.49]), suicidal plan (prevalence rate ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval [2.54, 6.58]) and attempts (prevalence rate ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [1.39, 5.13]), followed by victims then bullies. The experience of both relational-verbal and physical bullying was associated with the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.15, 6.60]), suicidal ideation or plans (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.05, 6.95]; and 4.8, 95% confidence interval [3.01, 7.64], respectively) or suicide attempts (prevalence rate ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval [1.90, 6.30]). This study presents the first national, population-based estimates of the associations between bullying by peers and mental health outcomes in Australian adolescents. The markedly increased risk of poor mental health outcomes, self-harm and suicidal ideation and behaviours among adolescents who experienced bullying highlights the importance of addressing bullying in school settings.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Steiner, Markus FC; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-01-01

Objective There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. Design A retrospective, cohort study. Setting Scotland. Participants 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Main outcome measures Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population’s risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Results Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73–86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56–84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136–169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56–82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120–175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39–74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18–53) was better than the reference population. Conclusions Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. PMID:26152675

Diagnostic accuracy of the Amsler grid and the preferential hyperacuity perimetry in the screening of patients with age-related macular degeneration: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Faes, L; Bodmer, N S; Bachmann, L M; Thiel, M A; Schmid, M K

2014-07-01

To clarify the screening potential of the Amsler grid and preferential hyperacuity perimetry (PHP) in detecting or ruling out wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Medline, Scopus and Web of Science (by citation of reference) were searched. Checking of reference lists of review articles and of included articles complemented electronic searches. Papers were selected, assessed, and extracted in duplicate. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Twelve included studies enrolled 903 patients and allowed constructing 27 two-by-two tables. Twelve tables reported on the Amsler grid and its modifications, twelve tables reported on the PHP, one table assessed the MCPT and two tables assessed the M-charts. All but two studies had a case-control design. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the Amsler grid was 0.78 (95% confidence intervals; 0.64-0.87), and the pooled specificity was 0.97 (95% confidence intervals; 0.91-0.99). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 23.1 (95% confidence intervals; 8.4-64.0) and 0.23 (95% confidence intervals; 0.14-0.39), respectively. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the PHP was 0.85 (95% confidence intervals; 0.80-0.89), and specificity was 0.87 (95% confidence intervals; 0.82-0.91). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.7 (95% confidence intervals; 4.6-9.8) and 0.17 (95% confidence intervals; 0.13-0.23). No pooling was possible for MCPT and M-charts. Results from small preliminary studies show promising test performance characteristics both for the Amsler grid and PHP to rule out wet AMD in the screening setting. To what extent these findings can be transferred to a real clinic practice still needs to be established.

Conformal Regression for Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship Modeling-Quantifying Prediction Uncertainty.

PubMed

Svensson, Fredrik; Aniceto, Natalia; Norinder, Ulf; Cortes-Ciriano, Isidro; Spjuth, Ola; Carlsson, Lars; Bender, Andreas

2018-05-29

Making predictions with an associated confidence is highly desirable as it facilitates decision making and resource prioritization. Conformal regression is a machine learning framework that allows the user to define the required confidence and delivers predictions that are guaranteed to be correct to the selected extent. In this study, we apply conformal regression to model molecular properties and bioactivity values and investigate different ways to scale the resultant prediction intervals to create as efficient (i.e., narrow) regressors as possible. Different algorithms to estimate the prediction uncertainty were used to normalize the prediction ranges, and the different approaches were evaluated on 29 publicly available data sets. Our results show that the most efficient conformal regressors are obtained when using the natural exponential of the ensemble standard deviation from the underlying random forest to scale the prediction intervals, but other approaches were almost as efficient. This approach afforded an average prediction range of 1.65 pIC50 units at the 80% confidence level when applied to bioactivity modeling. The choice of nonconformity function has a pronounced impact on the average prediction range with a difference of close to one log unit in bioactivity between the tightest and widest prediction range. Overall, conformal regression is a robust approach to generate bioactivity predictions with associated confidence.

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

PubMed

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

Stroke Self-Management Support Improves Survivors' Self-Efficacy and Outcome Expectation of Self-Management Behaviors.

PubMed

Lo, Suzanne H S; Chang, Anne M; Chau, Janita P C

2018-03-01

Evidence shows self-management programs are associated with improved recovery outcomes. This article reports on the effectiveness of a new nurse-led self-efficacy-based stroke self-management program. A randomized controlled trial of participants recruited from 3 acute stroke units was conducted. The intervention group received the 4-week stroke self-management program. The control group received usual care. All participants were assessed at baseline and 8 weeks after randomization. Data were analyzed using generalized estimating equations. Outcomes included self-efficacy, outcome expectation, and satisfaction with performance of self-management behaviors. One hundred twenty-eight participants were randomized with mean age, 67.46 years (SD, 11.95); 59% men; and mean duration poststroke, 45 days (SD, 26.16). At 8 weeks of follow-up in the intention-to-treat population, the intervention group improved significantly in self-efficacy (95% confidence interval, 2.55-12.45; P <0.01), outcome expectation (95% confidence interval, 5.47-14.01; P <0.01), and satisfaction with performance of self-management behaviors (95% confidence interval, 3.38-13.87; P <0.01) compared with the control. Similar results were obtained at 8 weeks of follow-up in the per-protocol population. The stroke self-management program improved survivors' self-efficacy, outcome expectation, and satisfaction with performance of self-management behaviors. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02112955. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Induced abortion and breast cancer among parous women: a Danish cohort study.

PubMed

Braüner, Christina Marie; Overvad, Kim; Tjønneland, Anne; Attermann, Jørn

2013-06-01

We investigated whether induced abortion is associated with breast cancer when lifestyle confounders, including smoking and alcohol consumption, are adjusted for. Design. Prospective cohort study. Danish women from the Diet, Cancer and Health study. A total of 25,576 women. We obtained exposure data from baseline questionnaires filled in by the women between 1993 and 1997. Information on breast cancer and emigration was retrieved from Danish national registries. The study power was approximately 85% when applying a minimum detection hazard ratio of 1.2. Long-term effects of induced abortion on the risk of breast cancer among women above 50 years of age. During a follow up of approximately 12 years, 1215 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. When comparing parous women who had an abortion with parous women who never had an abortion, there was no association between breast cancer risk and induced abortion (ever vs. never), with a hazard ratio 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.83-1.09), regardless of whether the abortion occurred before the first birth (hazard ratio 0.86; 95% confidence interval 0.65-1.14), or after the first birth (hazard ratio 0.97; 95% confidence interval 0.84-1.13). Our study did not show evidence of an association between induced abortion and breast cancer risk. © 2013 The Authors Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica © 2013 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Hypocalcaemia as a prognostic factor of early mortality in moderate and severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Vinas-Rios, Juan Manuel; Sanchez-Aguilar, Martin; Sanchez-Rodriguez, Jose Juan; Gonzalez-Aguirre, Daniel; Heinen, Christian; Meyer, Frerk; Kretschmer, Thomas

2014-02-01

Our main objective was to evaluate whether serum hypocalcaemia on the third day [defined as < 2.1 mmol/l (8.5 mg/dl)] is a prognostic factor for early mortality after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). We developed an ambispective comparative case control study. We evaluated clinical profiles from included patients from January 2005 to July 2009 and we prospectively recruited additional patients from August 2009 to July 2011. Patients were between 1 and 89 years old and had a Glasgow Coma Scale of 3-12 points following TBI. We calculated an Odds Ratio of 5.2 (Confidence Intervals 95%: 4.48 to 6.032) for hypocalcaemia on day three, which was associated with death. Retrospectively (January 2005 to July 2009) we compiled data from 81 patients. Prospectively (August 2009 to July 2011) we recruited 41 patients. The adjusted variables in the logistic regression final model were: serum calcium on day three (Odds Ratio 3.5, Confidence Intervals 95%: 1·12 to 13·61, P < 0·028) and anisocoria (Odds Ratio 8·24, Confidence Intervals 95%: 1·3 to 67·35, P < 0·019) obtaining an adjusted R2 of 0·22 (P < 0·005). The serum levels of calcium on day three could be useful for the prediction of mortality in patients with moderate and severe TBI.

Night-shift work and breast cancer risk in a cohort of Chinese women.

PubMed

Pronk, Anjoeka; Ji, Bu-Tian; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Xue, Shouzheng; Yang, Gong; Li, Hong-Lan; Rothman, Nathaniel; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Chow, Wong-Ho

2010-05-01

Shift work involving disruption of circadian rhythms has been classified as a probable cause of human cancer by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, based on limited epidemiologic evidence and abundant experimental evidence. The authors investigated this association in a population-based prospective cohort study of Chinese women. At baseline (1996-2000), information on lifetime occupational history was obtained from 73,049 women. Lifetime night-shift exposure indices were created using a job exposure matrix. During 2002-2004, self-reported data on frequency and duration of night-shift work were collected. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for major breast cancer risk factors, were calculated. During follow-up through 2007, 717 incident cases of breast cancer were diagnosed. Breast cancer risk was not associated with ever working the night shift on the basis of the job exposure matrix (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.0, 95% confidence interval: 0.9, 1.2) or self-reported history of night-shift work (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval: 0.7, 1.1). Risk was also not associated with frequency, duration, or cumulative amount of night-shift work. There were no indications of effect modification. The lack of an association between night-shift work and breast cancer adds to the inconsistent epidemiologic evidence. It may be premature to consider shift work a cause of cancer.

Association Between Intimate Partner Violence and Breastfeeding Duration: Results From the 2004-2014 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System.

PubMed

Wallenborn, Jordyn T; Cha, Susan; Masho, Saba W

2018-05-01

Intimate partner violence is a major public health problem that disproportionately affects women. Current literature investigating the relationship between intimate partner violence and breastfeeding is inconsistent. Research aim: This study aims to investigate the relationship between physical intimate partner violence that occurs in the preconception or prenatal period and any breastfeeding duration. Data from the retrospective, cross-sectional 2004-2014 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System were analyzed ( N = 195,264). The outcome, breastfeeding duration, was categorized as never breastfed, breastfed 8 weeks or less, and breastfeed more than 8 weeks. Multinomial logistic regression was used to obtain crude and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Approximately 6% ( n = 11,766) of survey respondents reported preconception and/or prenatal intimate partner violence, and 36.3% ( n = 67,667) of women reported never breastfeeding. The odds of discontinuing breastfeeding before 8 weeks were 18% higher among women who reported experiencing abuse 12 months before pregnancy compared with women who did not report intimate partner violence (adjusted odds ratio = 1.18; 95% confidence interval [1.01, 1.37]). All other estimates showed an overlapping 95% confidence interval. Breastfeeding is essential in improving maternal and child health; however, women in abusive relationships may face additional barriers to breastfeeding. Further research is needed to better understand the impact of violence on breastfeeding behaviors to inform healthcare practices and interventions.

Selecting Sensitive Parameter Subsets in Dynamical Models With Application to Biomechanical System Identification.

PubMed

Ramadan, Ahmed; Boss, Connor; Choi, Jongeun; Peter Reeves, N; Cholewicki, Jacek; Popovich, John M; Radcliffe, Clark J

2018-07-01

Estimating many parameters of biomechanical systems with limited data may achieve good fit but may also increase 95% confidence intervals in parameter estimates. This results in poor identifiability in the estimation problem. Therefore, we propose a novel method to select sensitive biomechanical model parameters that should be estimated, while fixing the remaining parameters to values obtained from preliminary estimation. Our method relies on identifying the parameters to which the measurement output is most sensitive. The proposed method is based on the Fisher information matrix (FIM). It was compared against the nonlinear least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to guide modelers on the pros and cons of our FIM method. We present an application identifying a biomechanical parametric model of a head position-tracking task for ten human subjects. Using measured data, our method (1) reduced model complexity by only requiring five out of twelve parameters to be estimated, (2) significantly reduced parameter 95% confidence intervals by up to 89% of the original confidence interval, (3) maintained goodness of fit measured by variance accounted for (VAF) at 82%, (4) reduced computation time, where our FIM method was 164 times faster than the LASSO method, and (5) selected similar sensitive parameters to the LASSO method, where three out of five selected sensitive parameters were shared by FIM and LASSO methods.

Reanalysis of cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to low doses of radiation: bootstrap and simulation methods

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommended annual occupational dose limit is 20 mSv. Cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation in 1945 was analysed previously, using a latency model with non-linear dose response. Questions were raised regarding statistical inference with this model. Methods Cancers with over 100 deaths in the 0 - 20 mSv subcohort of the 1950-1990 Life Span Study are analysed with Poisson regression models incorporating latency, allowing linear and non-linear dose response. Bootstrap percentile and Bias-corrected accelerated (BCa) methods and simulation of the Likelihood Ratio Test lead to Confidence Intervals for Excess Relative Risk (ERR) and tests against the linear model. Results The linear model shows significant large, positive values of ERR for liver and urinary cancers at latencies from 37 - 43 years. Dose response below 20 mSv is strongly non-linear at the optimal latencies for the stomach (11.89 years), liver (36.9), lung (13.6), leukaemia (23.66), and pancreas (11.86) and across broad latency ranges. Confidence Intervals for ERR are comparable using Bootstrap and Likelihood Ratio Test methods and BCa 95% Confidence Intervals are strictly positive across latency ranges for all 5 cancers. Similar risk estimates for 10 mSv (lagged dose) are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv data for the stomach, liver, lung and leukaemia. Dose response for the latter 3 cancers is significantly non-linear in the 5 - 500 mSv range. Conclusion Liver and urinary cancer mortality risk is significantly raised using a latency model with linear dose response. A non-linear model is strongly superior for the stomach, liver, lung, pancreas and leukaemia. Bootstrap and Likelihood-based confidence intervals are broadly comparable and ERR is strictly positive by bootstrap methods for all 5 cancers. Except for the pancreas, similar estimates of latency and risk from 10 mSv are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv subcohorts. Large and significant cancer risks for Japanese survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation from the atomic bombs in 1945 cast doubt on the ICRP recommended annual occupational dose limit. PMID:20003238

Influence of air quality model resolution on uncertainty associated with health impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

2012-06-01

We use regional air quality modeling to evaluate the impact of model resolution on uncertainty associated with the human health benefits resulting from proposed air quality regulations. Using a regional photochemical model (CAMx), we ran a modeling episode with meteorological inputs representing conditions as they occurred during August through September 2006, and two emissions inventories (a 2006 base case and a 2018 proposed control scenario, both for Houston, Texas) at 36, 12, 4 and 2 km resolution. The base case model performance was evaluated for each resolution against daily maximum 8-h averaged ozone measured at monitoring stations. Results from each resolution were more similar to each other than they were to measured values. Population-weighted ozone concentrations were calculated for each resolution and applied to concentration response functions (with 95% confidence intervals) to estimate the health impacts of modeled ozone reduction from the base case to the control scenario. We found that estimated avoided mortalities were not significantly different between 2, 4 and 12 km resolution runs, but 36 km resolution may over-predict some potential health impacts. Given the cost/benefit analysis requirements of the Clean Air Act, the uncertainty associated with human health impacts and therefore the results reported in this study, we conclude that health impacts calculated from population weighted ozone concentrations obtained using regional photochemical models at 36 km resolution fall within the range of values obtained using fine (12 km or finer) resolution modeling. However, in some cases, 36 km resolution may not be fine enough to statistically replicate the results achieved using 2 and 4 km resolution. On average, when modeling at 36 km resolution, 7 deaths per ozone month were avoided because of ozone reductions resulting from the proposed emissions reductions (95% confidence interval was 2-9). When modeling at 2, 4 or 12 km finer scale resolution, on average 5 deaths were avoided due to the same reductions (95% confidence interval was 2-7). Initial results for this specific region show that modeling at a resolution finer than 12 km is unlikely to improve uncertainty in benefits analysis. We suggest that 12 km resolution may be appropriate for uncertainty analyses in areas with similar chemistry, but that resolution requirements should be assessed on a case-by-case basis and revised as confidence intervals for concentration-response functions are updated.

Test of a mosquito eggshell isolation method and subsampling procedure.

PubMed

Turner, P A; Streever, W J

1997-03-01

Production of Aedes vigilax, the common salt-marsh mosquito, can be assessed by determining eggshell densities found in soil. In this study, 14 field-collected eggshell samples were used to test a subsampling technique and compare eggshell counts obtained with a flotation method to those obtained by direct examination of sediment (DES). Relative precision of the subsampling technique was assessed by determining the minimum number of subsamples required to estimate the true mean and confidence interval of a sample at a predetermined confidence level. A regression line was fitted to cube-root transformed eggshell counts obtained from flotation and DES and found to be significant (P < 0.001, r2 = 0.97). The flotation method allowed processing of samples in about one-third of the time required by DES, but recovered an average of 44% of the eggshells present. Eggshells obtained with the flotation method can be used to predict those from DES using the following equation: DES count = [1.386 x (flotation count)0.33 - 0.01]3.

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium and the risk of stroke among men.

PubMed

Adebamowo, Sally N; Spiegelman, Donna; Flint, Alan J; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium have been inversely associated with the incidence of hypertension, a known risk factor for stroke. However, only a few studies have examined intakes of these cations in relation to risk of stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate whether high intake of magnesium, potassium, and calcium is associated with reduced stroke risk among men. We prospectively examined the associations between intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium from diet and supplements, and the risk of incident stroke among 42 669 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, aged 40 to 75 years and free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in 1986. We calculated the hazard ratio of total, ischemic, and haemorrhagic strokes by quintiles of each cation intake, and of a combined dietary score of all three cations, using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. During 24 years of follow-up, 1547 total stroke events were documented. In multivariate analyses, the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile were 0·87 (95% confidence interval, 0·74-1·02; P, trend = 0·04) for dietary magnesium, 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·76-1·05; P, trend = 0·10) for dietary potassium, and 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-1·04; P, trend = 0·25) for dietary calcium intake. The relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·74 (95% confidence interval, 0·59-0·93; P, trend = 0·003) for supplemental magnesium, 0·66 (95% confidence interval, 0·50-0·86; P, trend = 0·002) for supplemental potassium, and 1·01 (95% confidence interval, 0·84-1·20; P, trend = 0·83) for supplemental calcium intake. For total intake (dietary and supplemental), the relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·83 (95% confidence interval, 0·70-0·99; P, trend = 0·04) for magnesium, 0·88 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-4; P, trend = 6) for potassium, and 3 (95% confidence interval, 79-09; P, trend = 84) for calcium. Men in the highest quintile for a combined dietary score of all three cations had a multivariate relative risk of 0·79 (95% confidence interval, 0·67-0·92; P, trend = 0·008) for total stroke, compared with those in the lowest. A diet rich in magnesium, potassium, and calcium may contribute to reduced risk of stroke among men. Because of significant collinearity, the independent contribution of each cation is difficult to define. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Neuraxial analgesia to increase the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Mele, Michele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

External cephalic version is a medical procedure in which the fetus is externally manipulated to assume the cephalic presentation. The use of neuraxial analgesia for facilitating the version has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials, but its potential effects are still controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of neuraxial analgesia as an intervention to increase the success rate of external cephalic version. Searches were performed in electronic databases with the use of a combination of text words related to external cephalic version and neuraxial analgesia from the inception of each database to January 2016. We included all randomized clinical trials of women, with a gestational age ≥36 weeks and breech or transverse fetal presentation, undergoing external cephalic version who were randomized to neuraxial analgesia, including spinal, epidural, or combined spinal-epidural techniques (ie, intervention group) or to a control group (either intravenous analgesia or no treatment). The primary outcome was the successful external cephalic version. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean differences with a 95% confidence interval. Nine randomized clinical trials (934 women) were included in this review. Women who received neuraxial analgesia had a significantly higher incidence of successful external cephalic version (58.4% vs 43.1%; relative risk, 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.64), cephalic presentation in labor (55.1% vs 40.2%; relative risk, 1.37, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.73), and vaginal delivery (54.0% vs 44.6%; relative risk, 1.21, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.41) compared with those who did not. Women who were randomized to the intervention group also had a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (46.0% vs 55.3%; relative risk, 0.83, 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), maternal discomfort (1.2% vs 9.3%; relative risk, 0.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.99), and lower pain, assessed by the visual analog scale pain score (mean difference, -4.52 points, 95% confidence interval, -5.35 to 3.69) compared with the control group. The incidences of emergency cesarean delivery (1.6% vs 2.5%; relative risk, 0.63, 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.70), transient bradycardia (11.8% vs 8.3%; relative risk, 1.42, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-2.80), nonreassuring fetal testing, excluding transient bradycardia, after external cephalic version (6.9% vs 7.4%; relative risk, 0.93, 95% confidence interval, 0.53-1.64), and abruption placentae (0.4% vs 0.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.06-16.1) were similar. Administration of neuraxial analgesia significantly increases the success rate of external cephalic version among women with malpresentation at term or late preterm, which then significantly increases the incidence of vaginal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Add-On Antihypertensive Medications to Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Blockers in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study.

PubMed

Schroeder, Emily B; Chonchol, Michel; Shetterly, Susan M; Powers, J David; Adams, John L; Schmittdiel, Julie A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J; Steiner, John F

2018-05-07

In individuals with diabetes, the comparative effectiveness of add-on antihypertensive medications added to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker on the risk of significant kidney events is unknown. We used an observational, multicenter cohort of 21,897 individuals with diabetes to compare individuals who added β -blockers, dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, loop diuretics, or thiazide diuretics to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. We examined the hazard of significant kidney events, cardiovascular events, and death using Cox proportional hazard models with propensity score weighting. The composite significant kidney event end point was defined as the first occurrence of a ≥30% decline in eGFR to an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , initiation of dialysis, or kidney transplant. The composite cardiovascular event end point was defined as the first occurrence of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or congestive heart failure; coronary artery bypass grafting; or percutaneous coronary intervention, and it was only examined in those free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Over a maximum of 5 years, there were 4707 significant kidney events, 1498 deaths, and 818 cardiovascular events. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios for significant kidney events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.89), 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.78), and 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.41), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of mortality for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.44), 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.03), and 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 2.13), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of cardiovascular events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics compared with thiazide diuretics were 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 1.96), 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.80 to 1.39), and 1.55 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 2.27), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, calcium channel blockers were associated with a lower risk of significant kidney events and a similar risk of cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Maternal steroid therapy for fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ciardulli, Andrea; D'Antonio, Francesco; Magro-Malosso, Elena R; Manzoli, Lamberto; Anisman, Paul; Saccone, Gabriele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2018-03-07

To explore the effect of maternal fluorinated steroid therapy on fetuses affected by second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. Studies reporting the outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block diagnosed on prenatal ultrasound and treated with fluorinated steroids compared with those not treated were included. The primary outcome was the overall progression of congenital atrioventricular block to either continuous or intermittent third-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth. Meta-analyses of proportions using random effect model and meta-analyses using individual data random-effect logistic regression were used. Five studies (71 fetuses) were included. The progression rate to congenital atrioventricular block at birth in fetuses treated with steroids was 52% (95% confidence interval 23-79) and in fetuses not receiving steroid therapy 73% (95% confidence interval 39-94). The overall rate of regression to either first-degree, intermittent first-/second-degree or sinus rhythm in fetuses treated with steroids was 25% (95% confidence interval 12-41) compared with 23% (95% confidence interval 8-44) in those not treated. Stable (constant) second-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth was present in 11% (95% confidence interval 2-27) of cases in the treated group and in none of the newborns in the untreated group, whereas complete regression to sinus rhythm occurred in 21% (95% confidence interval 6-42) of fetuses receiving steroids vs. 9% (95% confidence interval 0-41) of those untreated. There is still limited evidence as to the benefit of administered fluorinated steroids in terms of affecting outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Active management of the third stage of labor with and without controlled cord traction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Du, Yongming; Ye, Man; Zheng, Feiyun

2014-07-01

To determine the specific effect of controlled cord traction in the third stage of labor in the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage. We searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science (inception to 30 October 2013). Randomized controlled trials comparing controlled cord traction with hands-off management in the third stage of labor were included. Five randomized controlled trials involving a total of 30 532 participants were eligible. No significant difference was found between controlled cord traction and hands-off management groups with respect to the incidence of severe postpartum hemorrhage (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.77-1.08), need for blood transfusion (relative risk 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.69-1.33) or therapeutic uterotonics (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.01). However, controlled cord traction reduced the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in general (relative risk 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99; number-needed-to-treat 111, 95% confidence interval 61-666), as well manual removal of the placenta (relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.84) and duration of the third stage of labor (mean difference -3.20, 95% confidence interval -3.21 to -3.19). Controlled cord traction appears to reduce the risk of any postpartum hemorrhage in a general sense, as well as manual removal of the placenta and the duration of the third stage of labor. However, the reduction in the occurrence of severe postpartum hemorrhage, need for additional uterotonics and blood transfusion is not statistically significant. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors is associated with cancer-related death after resection.

PubMed

Roland, Christina L; Starker, Lee F; Kang, Y; Chatterjee, Deyali; Estrella, Jeannelyn; Rashid, Asif; Katz, Matthew H; Aloia, Thomas A; Lee, Jeffrey E; Dasari, Arvind; Yao, James C; Fleming, Jason B

2017-03-01

Gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors have frequent loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression, a known tumor suppressor. The impact of SMAD4 loss on gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors aggressiveness or cancer-related patient outcomes is not defined. We examined the expression of SMAD4 in resected gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors and its impact on oncologic outcomes. Patients who underwent complete curative operative resection of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were identified retrospectively (n = 38). Immunohistochemical staining for SMAD4 expression was scored by a blinded pathologist and correlated with clinicopathologic features and oncologic outcomes. Twenty-nine percent of the gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were SMAD4-negative and 71% SMAD4-positive. Median overall survival was 155 months (95% confidence interval, 102-208 months). Loss of SMAD4 was associated with both decreased median disease-free survival (28 months; 95% confidence interval, 16-40) months compared with 223 months (95% confidence interval, 3-443 months) for SMAD4-positive patients (P = .03) and decreased median disease-specific survival (SMAD4: 137 [95% confidence interval, 81-194] months versus SMAD4-positive: 204 [95% confidence interval, 143-264] months; P = .04). This translated into a decrease in median overall survival (SMAD4-negative: 125 (95% confidence interval, 51-214) months versus SMAD4-positive: 185 (95% confidence interval, 138-232) months; P = .02). Consistent with the known biology of the DPC4/SMAD4 gene, an absence of its protein expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors was negatively associated with outcomes after curative operative resection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculation of the confidence intervals for transformation parameters in the registration of medical images

PubMed Central

Bansal, Ravi; Staib, Lawrence H.; Laine, Andrew F.; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Jun; Posecion, Lainie F.; Peterson, Bradley S.

2010-01-01

Images from different individuals typically cannot be registered precisely because anatomical features within the images differ across the people imaged and because the current methods for image registration have inherent technological limitations that interfere with perfect registration. Quantifying the inevitable error in image registration is therefore of crucial importance in assessing the effects that image misregistration may have on subsequent analyses in an imaging study. We have developed a mathematical framework for quantifying errors in registration by computing the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters (3 translations, 3 rotations, and 1 global scale) for the similarity transformation. The presence of noise in images and the variability in anatomy across individuals ensures that estimated registration parameters are always random variables. We assume a functional relation among intensities across voxels in the images, and we use the theory of nonlinear, least-squares estimation to show that the parameters are multivariate Gaussian distributed. We then use the covariance matrix of this distribution to compute the confidence intervals of the transformation parameters. These confidence intervals provide a quantitative assessment of the registration error across the images. Because transformation parameters are nonlinearly related to the coordinates of landmark points in the brain, we subsequently show that the coordinates of those landmark points are also multivariate Gaussian distributed. Using these distributions, we then compute the confidence intervals of the coordinates for landmark points in the image. Each of these confidence intervals in turn provides a quantitative assessment of the registration error at a particular landmark point. Because our method is computationally intensive, however, its current implementation is limited to assessing the error of the parameters in the similarity transformation across images. We assessed the performance of our method in computing the error in estimated similarity parameters by applying that method to real world dataset. Our results showed that the size of the confidence intervals computed using our method decreased – i.e. our confidence in the registration of images from different individuals increased – for increasing amounts of blur in the images. Moreover, the size of the confidence intervals increased for increasing amounts of noise, misregistration, and differing anatomy. Thus, our method precisely quantified confidence in the registration of images that contain varying amounts of misregistration and varying anatomy across individuals. PMID:19138877

Reliability of the identification of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children.

PubMed

Juskewitch, Justin E; Prasad, Swati; Salas, Carlos F Santillan; Huskins, W Charles

2012-01-01

To assess interobserver reliability of the identification of episodes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill hospitalized infants and children. Retrospective, cross-sectional study of the application of the 2005 consensus definition of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in infants and children by two independent, trained reviewers using information in the electronic medical record. Eighteen-bed pediatric multidisciplinary medical/surgical pediatric intensive care unit. A randomly selected sample of children admitted consecutively to the pediatric intensive care unit between May 1 and September 30, 2009. None. Sixty infants and children were selected from a total of 343 admitted patients. Their median age was 3.9 yrs (interquartile range, 1.5-12.7), 57% were female, and 68% were Caucasian. Nineteen (32%) children were identified by both reviewers as having an episode of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (88% agreement, 95% confidence interval 78-94; κ = 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.92). Among these 19 children, agreement between the reviewers for individual systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was: temperature (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); white blood cell count (89%, 95% confidence interval 67-99); respiratory rate (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); and heart rate (68%, 95% confidence interval 33-87). Episodes of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children can be identified reproducibly using the consensus definition.

What was different about exposures reported by male Australian Gulf War veterans for the 1991 Persian Gulf War, compared with exposures reported for other deployments?

PubMed

Glass, Deborah C; Sim, Malcolm R; Kelsall, Helen L; Ikin, Jill F; McKenzie, Dean; Forbes, Andrew; Ittak, Peter

2006-07-01

This study identified chemical and environmental exposures specifically associated with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Exposures were self-reported in a postal questionnaire, in the period of 2000-2002, by 1,424 Australian male Persian Gulf War veterans in relation to their 1991 Persian Gulf War deployment and by 625 Persian Gulf War veterans and 514 members of a military comparison group in relation to other active deployments. Six of 28 investigated exposures were experienced more frequently during the Persian Gulf War than during other deployments; these were exposure to smoke (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-6.6), exposure to dust (OR, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-5.3), exposure to chemical warfare agents (OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-7.9), use of respiratory protective equipment (OR, 13.6; 95% confidence interval, 7.6-26.8), use of nuclear, chemical, and biological protective suits (OR, 8.9; 95% confidence interval, 5.4-15.4), and entering/inspecting enemy equipment (OR, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-4.8). Other chemical and environmental exposures were not specific to the Persian Gulf War deployment but were also reported in relation to other deployments. The number of exposures reported was related to service type and number of deployments but not to age or rank.

Statin therapy in lower limb peripheral arterial disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Antoniou, George A; Fisher, Robert K; Georgiadis, George S; Antoniou, Stavros A; Torella, Francesco

2014-11-01

To investigate and analyse the existing evidence supporting statin therapy in patients with lower limb atherosclerotic arterial disease. A systematic search of electronic information sources was undertaken to identify studies comparing cardiovascular outcomes in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease treated with a statin and those not receiving a statin. Estimates were combined applying fixed- or random-effects models. Twelve observational cohort studies and two randomised trials reporting 19,368 patients were selected. Statin therapy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.78) and incidence of stroke (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89). A trend towards improved cardiovascular mortality (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.35-1.11), myocardial infarction (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.38-1.01), and the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.03), was identified. Meta-analyses of studies performing adjustments showed decreased all-cause mortality in statin users (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.86). Evidence supporting statins' protective role in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease is insufficient. Statin therapy seems to be effective in reducing all-cause mortality and the incidence cerebrovascular events in patients diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the appropriateness of applying chi-square distribution based confidence intervals to spectral estimates of helicopter flyover data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutledge, Charles K.

1988-01-01

The validity of applying chi-square based confidence intervals to far-field acoustic flyover spectral estimates was investigated. Simulated data, using a Kendall series and experimental acoustic data from the NASA/McDonnell Douglas 500E acoustics test, were analyzed. Statistical significance tests to determine the equality of distributions of the simulated and experimental data relative to theoretical chi-square distributions were performed. Bias and uncertainty errors associated with the spectral estimates were easily identified from the data sets. A model relating the uncertainty and bias errors to the estimates resulted, which aided in determining the appropriateness of the chi-square distribution based confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals were appropriate for nontonally associated frequencies of the experimental data but were inappropriate for tonally associated estimate distributions. The appropriateness at the tonally associated frequencies was indicated by the presence of bias error and noncomformity of the distributions to the theoretical chi-square distribution. A technique for determining appropriate confidence intervals at the tonally associated frequencies was suggested.

Factors associated with the health and nutritional status of children under 5 years of age in Afghanistan: family behaviour related to women and past experience of war-related hardships

PubMed Central

Mashal, Taufiq; Takano, Takehito; Nakamura, Keiko; Kizuki, Masashi; Hemat, Shafiqullah; Watanabe, Masafumi; Seino, Kaoruko

2008-01-01

Background The present study was performed to assess, beyond socio-economic factors, independent associations between the health and nutritional status of children under 5 years old and (1) family behavioural factors related to women with regard to child care and (2) war-related experience by the household of hardships in Afghanistan. Methods The subjects were all children born during the previous 5 years from 1400 households in Kabul Province, Afghanistan and were selected by multistage sampling in March 2006. Height and weight measurements of the children and culturally sensitive interviews with their mothers were conducted by household visits. Child mortality, morbidity and nutritional status were evaluated. Four areas were assessed as variables for family behavioural factors related to women: education of mothers, child marriage of the mothers, maternal autonomy in obtaining healthcare for children and preference for a female physician. Hardships experienced by the family were examined by determining their satisfaction of basic material needs and by any experience of being forced to leave a preferred residence. Results A total of 2474 children from 1327 households completed the examinations and interviews; among them, 101 children were deceased by the time of the interview visits. Diarrhoea (32.5%) and acute respiratory infection (41.0%) were common child health problems and both emaciation (12.4%) and linear growth retardation (39.9%) were prevalent. Regardless of the influence of economic, demographic, family behavioural or hardships experience factors, a lack of maternal autonomy (79.1%) was associated with the occurrence of acute respiratory infection (odds-ratio = 1.72; 95% confidence interval = 1.23, 2.40), and linear growth retardation of children (odds-ratio = 1.38; 95% confidence interval = 1.01, 1.90); a lack of education of the mother (71.7%) and child marriage of the mothers (18.3%) were associated with diarrhoea (odds-ratio = 1.84; 95% confidence interval = 1.40, 2.41; odds-ratio = 1.46; 95% confidence interval = 1.08, 1.96, respectively); a shortage of basic material needs (59.1%) was associated with diarrhoea (odds-ratio = 1.35; 95% confidence interval = 1.08, 1.68); and migration inside the country (52.9%) was associated with underweight children (odds-ratio = 2.48; 95% confidence interval = 1.13, 5.44). Conclusion A lack of education of the mothers, child marriage, lack of maternal autonomy, shortage of basic material needs and internal displacement showed independent and significant negative associations with child health and nutritional variables in this country that has experienced a long period of conflict. PMID:18759988

Comparison of Modified-ETDRS and Mild Macular Grid Laser Photocoagulation Strategies for Diabetic Macular Edema

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Purpose To compare two laser photocoagulation techniques for treatment of diabetic macular edema (DME): modified-ETDRS direct/grid photocoagulation (mETDRS) and a, potentially milder, but potentially more extensive, mild macular grid (MMG) laser technique in which small mild burns are placed throughout the macula, whether or not edema is present, and microaneurysms are not treated directly. Methods 263 subjects (mean age 59 years) with previously untreated DME were randomly assigned to receive laser photocoagulation by mETDRS (N=162 eyes) or MMG (N=161 eyes) technique. Visual acuity, fundus photographs and OCT measurements were obtained at baseline and after 3.5, 8, and 12 months. Treatment was repeated if DME persisted. Main Outcome Measure Change in OCT measures at 12-months follow up. Results From baseline to 12 months, among eyes with baseline central subfield thickness ≥ 250 microns, central subfield thickening decreased by an average of 88 microns in the mETDRS group and decreased by 49 microns in the MMG group (adjusted mean difference: 33 microns, 95% confidence interval 5 to 61 microns, P=0.02). Weighted inner zone thickening by OCT decreased by 42 and 28 microns, respectively (adjusted mean difference: 14 microns, 95% confidence interval 1 to 27 microns, P=0.04), maximum retinal thickening (maximum of the central and four inner subfields) decreased by 66 and 39 microns, respectively (adjusted mean difference: 27 microns, 95% confidence interval 6 to 47 microns, P=0.01), and retinal volume decreased by 0.8 and 0.4 mm3, respectively (adjusted mean difference: 0.3 mm3, 95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.53 mm3, P=0.03). At 12 months, the mean change in visual acuity was 0 letters in the mETDRS group and 2 letters worse in the MMG group (adjusted mean difference: 2 letters, 95% confidence interval −0.5 to 5 letters, P=0.10). Conclusions At 12 months after treatment, the MMG technique is less effective at reducing OCT measured retinal thickening than the more extensively evaluated current mETDRS laser photocoagulation approach. However, the visual acuity outcome with both approaches is not substantially different. Given these findings a larger long-term trial of the MMG technique is not justified. Application to Clinical Practice Modified ETDRS focal photocoagulation should continue as a standard approach for treating diabetic macular edema. PMID:17420366

The role of aspirin dose on the prevention of preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Roberge, Stéphanie; Nicolaides, Kypros; Demers, Suzanne; Hyett, Jon; Chaillet, Nils; Bujold, Emmanuel

2017-02-01

Preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction are major causes of perinatal death and handicap in survivors. Randomized clinical trials have reported that the risk of preeclampsia, severe preeclampsia, and fetal growth restriction can be reduced by the prophylactic use of aspirin in high-risk women, but the appropriate dose of the drug to achieve this objective is not certain. We sought to estimate the impact of aspirin dosage on the prevention of preeclampsia, severe preeclampsia, and fetal growth restriction. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing the effect of daily aspirin or placebo (or no treatment) during pregnancy. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials up to December 2015, and study bibliographies were reviewed. Authors were contacted to obtain additional data when needed. Relative risks for preeclampsia, severe preeclampsia, and fetal growth restriction were calculated with 95% confidence intervals using random-effect models. Dose-response effect was evaluated using meta-regression and reported as adjusted R 2 . Analyses were stratified according to gestational age at initiation of aspirin (≤16 and >16 weeks) and repeated after exclusion of studies at high risk of biases. In all, 45 randomized controlled trials included a total of 20,909 pregnant women randomized to between 50-150 mg of aspirin daily. When aspirin was initiated at ≤16 weeks, there was a significant reduction and a dose-response effect for the prevention of preeclampsia (relative risk, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.75; P < .001; R 2 , 44%; P = .036), severe preeclampsia (relative risk, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-0.83; P = .009; R 2 , 100%; P = .008), and fetal growth restriction (relative risk, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.70; P < .001; R 2 , 100%; P = .044) with higher dosages of aspirin being associated with greater reduction of the 3 outcomes. Similar results were observed after the exclusion of studies at high risk of biases. When aspirin was initiated at >16 weeks, there was a smaller reduction of preeclampsia (relative risk, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.99; P = .04) without relationship with aspirin dosage (R 2 , 0%; P = .941). Aspirin initiated at >16 weeks was not associated with a risk reduction or a dose-response effect for severe preeclampsia (relative risk, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-1.14; P = .28; R 2 , 0%; P = .838) and fetal growth restriction (relative risk, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-1.05; P = .34; R 2 , not available; P = .563). Prevention of preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction using aspirin in early pregnancy is associated with a dose-response effect. Low-dose aspirin initiated at >16 weeks' gestation has a modest or no impact on the risk of preeclampsia, severe preeclampsia, and fetal growth restriction. Women at high risk for those outcomes should be identified in early pregnancy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of statistical methods for evaluating matching performance of a biometric identification device: a preliminary report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuckers, Michael E.; Hawley, Anne; Livingstone, Katie; Mramba, Nona

2004-08-01

Confidence intervals are an important way to assess and estimate a parameter. In the case of biometric identification devices, several approaches to confidence intervals for an error rate have been proposed. Here we evaluate six of these methods. To complete this evaluation, we simulate data from a wide variety of parameter values. This data are simulated via a correlated binary distribution. We then determine how well these methods do at what they say they do: capturing the parameter inside the confidence interval. In addition, the average widths of the various confidence intervals are recorded for each set of parameters. The complete results of this simulation are presented graphically for easy comparison. We conclude by making a recommendation regarding which method performs best.

Prognostic value of fasting versus nonfasting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels on long-term mortality: insight from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES-III).

PubMed

Doran, Bethany; Guo, Yu; Xu, Jinfeng; Weintraub, Howard; Mora, Samia; Maron, David J; Bangalore, Sripal

2014-08-12

National and international guidelines recommend fasting lipid panel measurement for risk stratification of patients for prevention of cardiovascular events. However, the prognostic value of fasting versus nonfasting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is uncertain. Patients enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES-III), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey performed from 1988 to 1994, were stratified on the basis of fasting status (≥8 or <8 hours) and followed for a mean of 14.0 (±0.22) years. Propensity score matching was used to assemble fasting and nonfasting cohorts with similar baseline characteristics. The risk of outcomes as a function of LDL-C and fasting status was assessed with the use of receiver operating characteristic curves and bootstrapping methods. The interaction between fasting status and LDL-C was assessed with Cox proportional hazards modeling. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. One-to-one matching based on propensity score yielded 4299 pairs of fasting and nonfasting individuals. For the primary outcome, fasting LDL-C yielded prognostic value similar to that for nonfasting LDL-C (C statistic=0.59 [95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.61] versus 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.60]; P=0.73), and LDL-C by fasting status interaction term in the Cox proportional hazards model was not significant (Pinteraction=0.11). Similar results were seen for the secondary outcome (fasting versus nonfasting C statistic=0.62 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66] versus 0.62 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66]; P=0.96; Pinteraction=0.34). Nonfasting LDL-C has prognostic value similar to that of fasting LDL-C. National and international agencies should consider reevaluating the recommendation that patients fast before obtaining a lipid panel. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

An Incident Cohort Study Comparing Survival on Home Hemodialysis and Peritoneal Dialysis (Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplantation Registry)

PubMed Central

Nadeau-Fredette, Annie-Claire; Hawley, Carmel M.; Pascoe, Elaine M.; Chan, Christopher T.; Clayton, Philip A.; Polkinghorne, Kevan R.; Boudville, Neil; Leblanc, Martine

2015-01-01

Background and objectives Home dialysis is often recognized as a first-choice therapy for patients initiating dialysis. However, studies comparing clinical outcomes between peritoneal dialysis and home hemodialysis have been very limited. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplantation Registry study assessed all Australian and New Zealand adult patients receiving home dialysis on day 90 after initiation of RRT between 2000 and 2012. The primary outcome was overall survival. The secondary outcomes were on-treatment survival, patient and technique survival, and death-censored technique survival. All results were adjusted with three prespecified models: multivariable Cox proportional hazards model (main model), propensity score quintile–stratified model, and propensity score–matched model. Results The study included 10,710 patients on incident peritoneal dialysis and 706 patients on incident home hemodialysis. Treatment with home hemodialysis was associated with better patient survival than treatment with peritoneal dialysis (5-year survival: 85% versus 44%, respectively; log-rank P<0.001). Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, home hemodialysis was associated with superior patient survival (hazard ratio for overall death, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.38 to 0.59) as well as better on-treatment survival (hazard ratio for on-treatment death, 0.34; 95% confidence interval, 0.26 to 0.45), composite patient and technique survival (hazard ratio for death or technique failure, 0.34; 95% confidence interval, 0.29 to 0.40), and death-censored technique survival (hazard ratio for technique failure, 0.34; 95% confidence interval, 0.28 to 0.41). Similar results were obtained with the propensity score models as well as sensitivity analyses using competing risks models and different definitions for technique failure and lag period after modality switch, during which events were attributed to the initial modality. Conclusions Home hemodialysis was associated with superior patient and technique survival compared with peritoneal dialysis. PMID:26068181

Postnatal depression in a community-based study of women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

March, Wendy A; Whitrow, Melissa J; Davies, Michael J; Fernandez, Renae C; Moore, Vivienne M

2018-07-01

Women with polycystic ovary syndrome are susceptible to depression and anxiety and so may also be at risk for postnatal depression. This study investigates whether women with polycystic ovary syndrome have an elevated risk of postnatal depression. Cross-sectional data for parous women (n = 566) were available from a birth cohort. Polycystic ovary syndrome was diagnosed using the Rotterdam criteria. Details of reproductive history, pregnancy, birth, and postnatal depression were obtained through structured interview. Comparisons were made between women with and without polycystic ovary syndrome using logistic regression analysis, including the investigation of interactions. A positive but statistically non-significant association was found between polycystic ovary syndrome and postnatal depression (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.9-2.9). Compared with their counterparts, women with polycystic ovary syndrome were substantially more likely: to have difficulty conceiving (odds ratio 5.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-9.4), to have conceived with medical assistance (odds ratio 11.6, 95% confidence interval 5.5-24.4), and to have pregnancy complications (gestational diabetes, pregnancy-induced hypertension, or preeclampsia; odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.1-3.5). Where women with polycystic ovary syndrome had a history of miscarriage or conceived with medical assistance, the combination interacted (p = 0.06 and p < 0.05, respectively), with over half of such women having postnatal depression. Although women with polycystic ovary syndrome may not have an excess risk of postnatal depression overall, those who had suffered a miscarriage or required medical assistance to conceive were at substantially elevated risk. Findings point to vulnerability inherent in polycystic ovary syndrome being amplified, either by stressful experiences on the pathway to pregnancy/childbirth or by specific fertility treatment regimens. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Sample variance in weak lensing: How many simulations are required?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petri, Andrea; May, Morgan; Haiman, Zoltan

Constraining cosmology using weak gravitational lensing consists of comparing a measured feature vector of dimension N b with its simulated counterpart. An accurate estimate of the N b × N b feature covariance matrix C is essential to obtain accurate parameter confidence intervals. When C is measured from a set of simulations, an important question is how large this set should be. To answer this question, we construct different ensembles of N r realizations of the shear field, using a common randomization procedure that recycles the outputs from a smaller number N s ≤ N r of independent ray-tracing N-bodymore » simulations. We study parameter confidence intervals as a function of (N s, N r) in the range 1 ≤ N s ≤ 200 and 1 ≤ N r ≲ 105. Previous work [S. Dodelson and M. D. Schneider, Phys. Rev. D 88, 063537 (2013)] has shown that Gaussian noise in the feature vectors (from which the covariance is estimated) lead, at quadratic order, to an O(1/N r) degradation of the parameter confidence intervals. Using a variety of lensing features measured in our simulations, including shear-shear power spectra and peak counts, we show that cubic and quartic covariance fluctuations lead to additional O(1/N 2 r) error degradation that is not negligible when N r is only a factor of few larger than N b. We study the large N r limit, and find that a single, 240 Mpc/h sized 512 3-particle N-body simulation (N s = 1) can be repeatedly recycled to produce as many as N r = few × 10 4 shear maps whose power spectra and high-significance peak counts can be treated as statistically independent. Lastly, a small number of simulations (N s = 1 or 2) is sufficient to forecast parameter confidence intervals at percent accuracy.« less

Sample variance in weak lensing: How many simulations are required?

DOE PAGES

Petri, Andrea; May, Morgan; Haiman, Zoltan

2016-03-24

Constraining cosmology using weak gravitational lensing consists of comparing a measured feature vector of dimension N b with its simulated counterpart. An accurate estimate of the N b × N b feature covariance matrix C is essential to obtain accurate parameter confidence intervals. When C is measured from a set of simulations, an important question is how large this set should be. To answer this question, we construct different ensembles of N r realizations of the shear field, using a common randomization procedure that recycles the outputs from a smaller number N s ≤ N r of independent ray-tracing N-bodymore » simulations. We study parameter confidence intervals as a function of (N s, N r) in the range 1 ≤ N s ≤ 200 and 1 ≤ N r ≲ 105. Previous work [S. Dodelson and M. D. Schneider, Phys. Rev. D 88, 063537 (2013)] has shown that Gaussian noise in the feature vectors (from which the covariance is estimated) lead, at quadratic order, to an O(1/N r) degradation of the parameter confidence intervals. Using a variety of lensing features measured in our simulations, including shear-shear power spectra and peak counts, we show that cubic and quartic covariance fluctuations lead to additional O(1/N 2 r) error degradation that is not negligible when N r is only a factor of few larger than N b. We study the large N r limit, and find that a single, 240 Mpc/h sized 512 3-particle N-body simulation (N s = 1) can be repeatedly recycled to produce as many as N r = few × 10 4 shear maps whose power spectra and high-significance peak counts can be treated as statistically independent. Lastly, a small number of simulations (N s = 1 or 2) is sufficient to forecast parameter confidence intervals at percent accuracy.« less

Bias and uncertainty in regression-calibrated models of groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, R.L.; Christensen, S.

2006-01-01

Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector ?? that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation ????*, where ?? is an interpolation matrix and ??* is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector ??* has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(????*) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of ??, ??,f(??), which is assumed to be nearly exact. The difference f(??) - f(????*), termed model error, is spatially correlated, generates prediction biases, and causes standard confidence and prediction intervals to be too small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate ??* and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear regression methods are extended to analyze the revised method. The analysis develops analytical expressions for bias terms reflecting the interaction of model nonlinearity and model error, for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for this interaction, and for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for possible use of a diagonal weight matrix in place of the correct one. If terms expressing the degree of intrinsic nonlinearity for f(??) and f(????*) are small, then most of the biases are small and the correction factors are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated external defibrillators in National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Athletics.

PubMed

Coris, Eric E; Sahebzamani, Frances; Walz, Steve; Ramirez, Arnold M

2004-01-01

Sudden cardiac death is the leading cause of death in athletes. Evidence on current sudden cardiac death prevention through preparticipation history, physicals, and noninvasive cardiovascular diagnostics has demonstrated a low sensitivity for detection of athletes at high risk of sudden cardiac death. Data are lacking on automated external defibrillator programs specifically initiated to respond to rare dysrhythmia in younger, relatively low-risk populations. Surveys were mailed to the head athletic trainers of all National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I athletics programs listed in the National Athletic Trainers' Association directory. In all, 303 surveys were mailed; 186 departments (61%) responded. Seventy-two percent (133) of responding National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I athletics programs have access to automated external defibrillator units; 54% (101) own their units. Proven medical benefit (55%), concern for liability (51%), and affordability (29%) ranked highest in frequency of reasons for automated external defibrillator purchase. Unit cost (odds ratio = 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.0), donated units (odds ratio = 1.92; confidence interval, 3.66-1.01), institution size (odds ratio =.0001; confidence interval, 1.3 E-4 to 2.2E-05), and proven medical benefit of automated external defibrillators (odds ratio = 24; confidence interval, 72-8.1) were the most significant predictors of departmental defibrillator ownership. Emergency medical service response time and sudden cardiac death event history were not significantly predictive of departmental defibrillator ownership. The majority of automated external defibrillator interventions occurred on nonathletes. Many athletics medicine programs are obtaining automated external defibrillators without apparent criteria for determination of need. Usage and maintenance policies vary widely among departments with unit ownership or access. Programs need to approach the issue of unit acquisition and implementation with knowledge of the surrounding emergency medical service system, geography of their individual sports medicine facilities, numbers and relative risk of their athletes, and budgetary constraints.

Contact-Free Screening of Atrial Fibrillation by a Smartphone Using Facial Pulsatile Photoplethysmographic Signals.

PubMed

Yan, Bryan P; Lai, William H S; Chan, Christy K Y; Chan, Stephen Chun-Hin; Chan, Lok-Hei; Lam, Ka-Ming; Lau, Ho-Wang; Ng, Chak-Ming; Tai, Lok-Yin; Yip, Kin-Wai; To, Olivia T L; Freedman, Ben; Poh, Yukkee C; Poh, Ming-Zher

2018-04-05

We aimed to evaluate a novel method of atrial fibrillation (AF) screening using an iPhone camera to detect and analyze photoplethysmographic signals from the face without physical contact by extracting subtle beat-to-beat variations of skin color that reflect the cardiac pulsatile signal. Patients admitted to the cardiology ward of the hospital for clinical reasons were recruited. Simultaneous facial and fingertip photoplethysmographic measurements were obtained from 217 hospital inpatients (mean age, 70.3±13.9 years; 71.4% men) facing the front camera and with an index finger covering the back camera of 2 independent iPhones before a 12-lead ECG was recorded. Backdrop and background light intensity was monitored during signal acquisition. Three successive 20-second (total, 60 seconds) recordings were acquired per patient and analyzed for heart rate regularity by Cardiio Rhythm (Cardiio Inc, Cambridge, MA) smartphone application. Pulse irregularity in ≥1 photoplethysmographic readings or 3 uninterpretable photoplethysmographic readings were considered a positive AF screening result. AF was present on 12-lead ECG in 34.6% (n=75/217) patients. The Cardiio Rhythm facial photoplethysmographic application demonstrated high sensitivity (95%; 95% confidence interval, 87%-98%) and specificity (96%; 95% confidence interval, 91%-98%) in discriminating AF from sinus rhythm compared with 12-lead ECG. The positive and negative predictive values were 92% (95% confidence interval, 84%-96%) and 97% (95% confidence interval, 93%-99%), respectively. Detection of a facial photoplethysmographic signal to determine pulse irregularity attributable to AF is feasible. The Cardiio Rhythm smartphone application showed high sensitivity and specificity, with low negative likelihood ratio for AF from facial photoplethysmographic signals. The convenience of a contact-free approach is attractive for community screening and has the potential to be useful for distant AF screening. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Validity of self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection.

PubMed

Frisse, Ann C; Marrazzo, Jeanne M; Tutlam, Nhial T; Schreiber, Courtney A; Teal, Stephanie B; Turok, David K; Peipert, Jeffrey F

2017-04-01

Chlamydia trachomatis infection is common and largely asymptomatic in women. If untreated, it can lead to sequelae such as pelvic inflammatory disease and infertility. It is unknown whether a patient's self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection is a valid marker of past infection. Our objective was to evaluate the validity of women's self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection compared with Chlamydia trachomatis serology, a marker for previous infection. We analyzed data from the Fertility After Contraception Termination study. We compared participants' survey responses with the question, "Have you ever been told by a health care provider that you had Chlamydia?" to serological test results indicating the presence or absence of antibodies to Chlamydia trachomatis as assessed by a microimmunofluorescence assay. Prevalence of past infection, sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. The Cohen's kappa statistic was computed to assess agreement between self-report and serology. Among 409 participants, 108 (26%) reported having a history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection, whereas 146 (36%) had positive serological test results. Relative to positive microimmunofluorescence assay, the sensitivity and specificity of self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection were 52.1% (95% confidence interval, 43.6-60.4%) and 87.8% (95% confidence interval, 83.3-91.5%), respectively. The positive predictive value of the self-report was 70.4% (95% confidence interval, 60.8-78.8%), and the negative predictive value was 76.7% (95% confidence interval, 71.6-81.4%). The likelihood ratio was found to be 4.28. Agreement between self-report and serology was found to be moderate (kappa = 0.42, P < .001). Self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection commonly yields false-negative and false-positive results. When definitive status of past Chlamydia trachomatis infection is needed, serology should be obtained. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expression of Proteins Involved in Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition as Predictors of Metastasis and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Ptrend 0.78 0.62 0.75 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of node...Ptrend 0.71 0.67 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of high-grade tumors... logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between each of the seven SNPs and

Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

PubMed

Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

2012-08-01

Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

A risk score for predicting coronary artery disease in women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test finding.

PubMed

Lo, Monica Y; Bonthala, Nirupama; Holper, Elizabeth M; Banks, Kamakki; Murphy, Sabina A; McGuire, Darren K; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit

2013-03-15

Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of activity classification in younger and older cohorts using a smartphone.

PubMed

Del Rosario, Michael B; Wang, Kejia; Wang, Jingjing; Liu, Ying; Brodie, Matthew; Delbaere, Kim; Lovell, Nigel H; Lord, Stephen R; Redmond, Stephen J

2014-11-01

Automatic recognition of human activity is useful as a means of estimating energy expenditure and has potential for use in fall detection and prediction. The emergence of the smartphone as a ubiquitous device presents an opportunity to utilize its embedded sensors, computational power and data connectivity as a platform for continuous health monitoring. In the study described herein, 37 older people (83.9  ±  3.4 years) performed a series of activities of daily living (ADLs) while a smartphone (containing a triaxial accelerometer, triaxial gyroscope and barometric pressure sensor) was placed in the front pocket of their trousers. These results are compared to a similar trial conducted previously in which 20 young people (21.9  ±  1.65 years) were asked to perform the same ADLs using the same smartphone (again in the front pocket of their trousers).In each trial, the participants were asked to perform several activities (standing, sitting, lying, walking on level ground, up and down staircases, and riding an elevator up and down) in a free-living environment. During each acquisition session, the internal sensor signals were recorded and subsequently used to develop activity classifiers based on a decision tree algorithm that classified ADL in epochs of ~1.25 s. When training and testing with the younger cohort, using a leave-one-out cross validation procedure, a total classification sensitivity of 80.9% ± 9.57% ([Formula: see text] = 0.75  ±  0.12) was obtained. Retraining and testing on the older cohort, again using cross validation, gives a comparable total class sensitivity of 82.0% ± 8.88% ([Formula: see text] =0.74  ±  0.12).When trained with the younger group and tested on the older group, a total class sensitivity of 69.2% ± 24.8% (95% confidence interval [69.6%, 70.6%]) and [Formula: see text] = 0.60  ±  0.27 (95% confidence interval [0.58, 0.59]) was obtained. When trained on the older group and tested on the younger group, a total class sensitivity of 80.5% ± 6.80% (95% confidence interval [79.0%, 80.6%]) and [Formula: see text] = 0.74  ±  0.08 (95% confidence interval [0.73, 0.75]) was obtained.An instance of the decision tree classifier developed was implemented on the smartphone as a software application. It was capable of performing real-time activity classification for a period of 17 h on a single battery charge, illustrating that smartphone technology provides a viable platform on which to perform long-term activity monitoring.

Comparative bioavailability of 4 amoxicillin formulations in healthy human volunteers after a single dose administration.

PubMed

Oliveira, C H; Abib, E; Vannuchi, Y B; Sucupira, M; Ilha, J; De Nucci, G

2001-04-01

To compare the bioavailability of two amoxicillin oral suspension (250 mg/5 ml) formulations and two amoxicillin capsule (500 mg) formulations (Amoxicilina from Medley S/A Indústria Farmaceûtica, Brazil, as test formulations and Amoxil from SmithKline Beecham Laboratórios Ltda., Brazil, as reference formulations) in 48 volunteers of both sexes. The study was conducted open with a randomized two-period crossover design and a one-week washout period. Plasma samples were obtained over a 12-hour interval. Amoxicillin concentrations were analyzed by combined reversed phase liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS-MS) with positive ion electrospray ionization using the selected ion monitoring method. From the amoxicillin plasma concentration vs. time curves the following pharmacokinetic parameters were obtained: AUC(last), AUC(0-infinity) and Cmax. Geometric mean of Amoxicilina/Amoxil 250 mg/5 ml individual percent ratio was 103.70% for AUC(last), 103.15% for AUC(0-infinity) and 106.79% for Cmax. The 90% confidence intervals were 97.82-109.94%, 97.40 to 109.24%, and 96.38-118.33%, respectively. Geometric mean of Amoxicilina/Amoxil 500 mg capsule individual percent ratio was 93.26% for AUC(last), 93.27% for AUC(0-infinity) and 90.74% for Cmax. The 90% confidence intervals were 85.0-102.33%, 85.12-102.31%, and 80.14-102.73%, respectively. Since the 90% CI for both Cmax, AUC(last) and AUC(0-inifnity) were within the 80-125% interval proposed by the Food and Drug Administration, it was concluded that Amoxicilina 250 mg/5 ml oral suspension and Amoxicilina 500 mg capsule were bioequivalent to Amoxil 250 mg/5 ml oral suspension and to Amoxil capsule 500 mg, respectively, with regard to both the rate and extent of absorption.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

The Role of Short-Term Memory Capacity and Task Experience for Overconfidence in Judgment under Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansson, Patrik; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

2008-01-01

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from…

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tully, Phillip J; Cosh, Suzanne M

2013-12-01

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease patients remain unquantified. Systematic searching of Medline, Embase, SCOPUS and PsycINFO databases revealed 1025 unique citations. Aggregate generalized anxiety disorder prevalence (12 studies, N = 3485) was 10.94 per cent (95% confidence interval: 7.8-13.99) and 13.52 per cent (95% confidence interval: 8.39-18.66) employing Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria (random effects). Lifetime generalized anxiety disorder prevalence was 25.80 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20.84-30.77). In seven studies, modest correlation was evident between generalized anxiety disorder and depression, Fisher's Z = .30 (95% confidence interval: .19-.42), suggesting that each psychiatric disorder is best conceptualized as contributing unique variance to coronary heart disease prognosis.

Autonomous motivation mediates the relation between goals for physical activity and physical activity behavior in adolescents.

PubMed

Duncan, Michael J; Eyre, Emma Lj; Bryant, Elizabeth; Seghers, Jan; Galbraith, Niall; Nevill, Alan M

2017-04-01

Overall, 544 children (mean age ± standard deviation = 14.2 ± .94 years) completed self-report measures of physical activity goal content, behavioral regulations, and physical activity behavior. Body mass index was determined from height and mass. The indirect effect of intrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 162.27; 95% confidence interval [89.73, 244.70]), but not controlled motivation ( b = 5.30; 95% confidence interval [-39.05, 45.16]). The indirect effect of extrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 106.25; 95% confidence interval [63.74, 159.13]) but not controlled motivation ( b = 17.28; 95% confidence interval [-31.76, 70.21]). Weight status did not alter these findings.

A Direct Method for Obtaining Approximate Standard Error and Confidence Interval of Maximal Reliability for Composites with Congeneric Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Penev, Spiridon

2006-01-01

Unlike a substantial part of reliability literature in the past, this article is concerned with weighted combinations of a given set of congeneric measures with uncorrelated errors. The relationship between maximal coefficient alpha and maximal reliability for such composites is initially dealt with, and it is shown that the former is a lower…

PGS-FISH in reproductive medicine and perspective directions for improvement: a systematic review.

PubMed

Zamora, Sandra; Clavero, Ana; Gonzalvo, M Carmen; de Dios Luna Del Castillo, Juan; Roldán-Nofuentes, Jose Antonio; Mozas, Juan; Castilla, Jose Antonio

2011-08-01

Embryo selection can be carried out via morphological criteria or by using genetic studies based on Preimplantation Genetic Screening. In the present study, we evaluate the clinical validity of Preimplantation Genetic Screening with fluorescence in situ hybridization (PGS-FISH) compared with morphological embryo criteria. A systematic review was made of the bibliography, with the following goals: firstly, to determine the prevalence of embryo chromosome alteration in clinical situations in which the PGS-FISH technique has been used; secondly, to calculate the statistics of diagnostic efficiency (negative Likelihood Ratio), using 2 × 2 tables, derived from PGS-FISH. The results obtained were compared with those obtained from embryo morphology. We calculated the probability of transferring at least one chromosome-normal embryo when it was selected using either morphological criteria or PGS-FISH, and considered what diagnostic performance should be expected of an embryo selection test with respect to achieving greater clinical validity than that obtained from embryo morphology. After an embryo morphology selection that produced a negative result (normal morphology), the likelihood of embryo aneuploidies was found to range from a pre-test value of 65% (prevalence of embryo chromosome alteration registered in all the study groups) to a post-test value of 55% (Confidence interval: 50-61), while after PGS-FISH with a negative result (euploid), the post-test probability was 42% (Confidence interval: 35-49) (p < 0.05). The probability of transferring at least one euploid embryo was the same whether 3 embryos were selected according to morphological criteria or whether 2, selected by PGS-FISH, were transferred. Any embryo selection test, if it is to provide greater clinical validity than embryo morphology, must present a LR-value of 0.40 (Confidence interval: 0.32-0.51) in single embryo transfer, and 0.06 (CI: 0.05-0.07) in double embryo transfer. With currently available technology, and taking into account the number of embryos to be transferred, the clinical validity of PGS-FISH, although superior to that of morphological criteria, does not appear to be clinically relevant.

Statistical variability and confidence intervals for planar dose QA pass rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, Daniel W.; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Attwood, Kristopher

Purpose: The most common metric for comparing measured to calculated dose, such as for pretreatment quality assurance of intensity-modulated photon fields, is a pass rate (%) generated using percent difference (%Diff), distance-to-agreement (DTA), or some combination of the two (e.g., gamma evaluation). For many dosimeters, the grid of analyzed points corresponds to an array with a low areal density of point detectors. In these cases, the pass rates for any given comparison criteria are not absolute but exhibit statistical variability that is a function, in part, on the detector sampling geometry. In this work, the authors analyze the statistics ofmore » various methods commonly used to calculate pass rates and propose methods for establishing confidence intervals for pass rates obtained with low-density arrays. Methods: Dose planes were acquired for 25 prostate and 79 head and neck intensity-modulated fields via diode array and electronic portal imaging device (EPID), and matching calculated dose planes were created via a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates for each dose plane pair (both centered to the beam central axis) were calculated with several common comparison methods: %Diff/DTA composite analysis and gamma evaluation, using absolute dose comparison with both local and global normalization. Specialized software was designed to selectively sample the measured EPID response (very high data density) down to discrete points to simulate low-density measurements. The software was used to realign the simulated detector grid at many simulated positions with respect to the beam central axis, thereby altering the low-density sampled grid. Simulations were repeated with 100 positional iterations using a 1 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, a 2 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, and similar random detector grids. For each simulation, %/DTA composite pass rates were calculated with various %Diff/DTA criteria and for both local and global %Diff normalization techniques. Results: For the prostate and head/neck cases studied, the pass rates obtained with gamma analysis of high density dose planes were 2%-5% higher than respective %/DTA composite analysis on average (ranging as high as 11%), depending on tolerances and normalization. Meanwhile, the pass rates obtained via local normalization were 2%-12% lower than with global maximum normalization on average (ranging as high as 27%), depending on tolerances and calculation method. Repositioning of simulated low-density sampled grids leads to a distribution of possible pass rates for each measured/calculated dose plane pair. These distributions can be predicted using a binomial distribution in order to establish confidence intervals that depend largely on the sampling density and the observed pass rate (i.e., the degree of difference between measured and calculated dose). These results can be extended to apply to 3D arrays of detectors, as well. Conclusions: Dose plane QA analysis can be greatly affected by choice of calculation metric and user-defined parameters, and so all pass rates should be reported with a complete description of calculation method. Pass rates for low-density arrays are subject to statistical uncertainty (vs. the high-density pass rate), but these sampling errors can be modeled using statistical confidence intervals derived from the sampled pass rate and detector density. Thus, pass rates for low-density array measurements should be accompanied by a confidence interval indicating the uncertainty of each pass rate.« less

Statistical inference for the within-device precision of quantitative measurements in assay validation.

PubMed

Liu, Jen-Pei; Lu, Li-Tien; Liao, C T

2009-09-01

Intermediate precision is one of the most important characteristics for evaluation of precision in assay validation. The current methods for evaluation of within-device precision recommended by the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) guideline EP5-A2 are based on the point estimator. On the other hand, in addition to point estimators, confidence intervals can provide a range for the within-device precision with a probability statement. Therefore, we suggest a confidence interval approach for assessment of the within-device precision. Furthermore, under the two-stage nested random-effects model recommended by the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2, in addition to the current Satterthwaite's approximation and the modified large sample (MLS) methods, we apply the technique of generalized pivotal quantities (GPQ) to derive the confidence interval for the within-device precision. The data from the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2 illustrate the applications of the confidence interval approach and comparison of results between the three methods. Results of a simulation study on the coverage probability and expected length of the three methods are reported. The proposed method of the GPQ-based confidence intervals is also extended to consider the between-laboratories variation for precision assessment.

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Proposed method to estimate the liquid-vapor accommodation coefficient based on experimental sonoluminescence data.

PubMed

Puente, Gabriela F; Bonetto, Fabián J

2005-05-01

We used the temporal evolution of the bubble radius in single-bubble sonoluminescence to estimate the water liquid-vapor accommodation coefficient. The rapid changes in the bubble radius that occur during the bubble collapse and rebounds are a function of the actual value of the accommodation coefficient. We selected bubble radius measurements obtained from two different experimental techniques in conjunction with a robust parameter estimation strategy and we obtained that for water at room temperature the mass accommodation coefficient is in the confidence interval [0.217,0.329].

The probability of being identified as an outlier with commonly used funnel plot control limits for the standardised mortality ratio.

PubMed

Seaton, Sarah E; Manktelow, Bradley N

2012-07-16

Emphasis is increasingly being placed on the monitoring of clinical outcomes for health care providers. Funnel plots have become an increasingly popular graphical methodology used to identify potential outliers. It is assumed that a provider only displaying expected random variation (i.e. 'in-control') will fall outside a control limit with a known probability. In reality, the discrete count nature of these data, and the differing methods, can lead to true probabilities quite different from the nominal value. This paper investigates the true probability of an 'in control' provider falling outside control limits for the Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR). The true probabilities of an 'in control' provider falling outside control limits for the SMR were calculated and compared for three commonly used limits: Wald confidence interval; 'exact' confidence interval; probability-based prediction interval. The probability of falling above the upper limit, or below the lower limit, often varied greatly from the nominal value. This was particularly apparent when there were a small number of expected events: for expected events ≤ 50 the median probability of an 'in-control' provider falling above the upper 95% limit was 0.0301 (Wald), 0.0121 ('exact'), 0.0201 (prediction). It is important to understand the properties and probability of being identified as an outlier by each of these different methods to aid the correct identification of poorly performing health care providers. The limits obtained using probability-based prediction limits have the most intuitive interpretation and their properties can be defined a priori. Funnel plot control limits for the SMR should not be based on confidence intervals.

Measurement of the CKM angle γ from a combination of B±→Dh± analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaij, R.; Abellan Beteta, C.; Adeva, B.; Adinolfi, M.; Adrover, C.; Affolder, A.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Albrecht, J.; Alessio, F.; Alexander, M.; Ali, S.; Alkhazov, G.; Alvarez Cartelle, P.; Alves, A. A.; Amato, S.; Amerio, S.; Amhis, Y.; Anderlini, L.; Anderson, J.; Andreassen, R.; Appleby, R. B.; Aquines Gutierrez, O.; Archilli, F.; Artamonov, A.; Artuso, M.; Aslanides, E.; Auriemma, G.; Bachmann, S.; Back, J. J.; Baesso, C.; Balagura, V.; Baldini, W.; Barlow, R. J.; Barschel, C.; Barsuk, S.; Barter, W.; Bauer, Th.; Bay, A.; Beddow, J.; Bedeschi, F.; Bediaga, I.; Belogurov, S.; Belous, K.; Belyaev, I.; Ben-Haim, E.; Bencivenni, G.; Benson, S.; Benton, J.; Berezhnoy, A.; Bernet, R.; Bettler, M.-O.; van Beuzekom, M.; Bien, A.; Bifani, S.; Bird, T.; Bizzeti, A.; Bjørnstad, P. M.; Blake, T.; Blanc, F.; Blouw, J.; Blusk, S.; Bocci, V.; Bondar, A.; Bondar, N.; Bonivento, W.; Borghi, S.; Borgia, A.; Bowcock, T. J. V.; Bowen, E.; Bozzi, C.; Brambach, T.; van den Brand, J.; Bressieux, J.; Brett, D.; Britsch, M.; Britton, T.; Brook, N. H.; Brown, H.; Burducea, I.; Bursche, A.; Busetto, G.; Buytaert, J.; Cadeddu, S.; Callot, O.; Calvi, M.; Calvo Gomez, M.; Camboni, A.; Campana, P.; Campora Perez, D.; Carbone, A.; Carboni, G.; Cardinale, R.; Cardini, A.; Carranza-Mejia, H.; Carson, L.; Carvalho Akiba, K.; Casse, G.; Castillo Garcia, L.; Cattaneo, M.; Cauet, Ch.; Charles, M.; Charpentier, Ph.; Chen, P.; Chiapolini, N.; Chrzaszcz, M.; Ciba, K.; Cid Vidal, X.; Ciezarek, G.; Clarke, P. E. L.; Clemencic, M.; Cliff, H. V.; Closier, J.; Coca, C.; Coco, V.; Cogan, J.; Cogneras, E.; Collins, P.; Comerma-Montells, A.; Contu, A.; Cook, A.; Coombes, M.; Coquereau, S.; Corti, G.; Couturier, B.; Cowan, G. A.; Craik, D. C.; Cunliffe, S.; Currie, R.; D'Ambrosio, C.; David, P.; David, P. N. Y.; Davis, A.; De Bonis, I.; De Bruyn, K.; De Capua, S.; De Cian, M.; De Miranda, J. M.; De Paula, L.; De Silva, W.; De Simone, P.; Decamp, D.; Deckenhoff, M.; Del Buono, L.; Déléage, N.; Derkach, D.; Deschamps, O.; Dettori, F.; Di Canto, A.; Dijkstra, H.; Dogaru, M.; Donleavy, S.; Dordei, F.; Dosil Suárez, A.; Dossett, D.; Dovbnya, A.; Dupertuis, F.; Dzhelyadin, R.; Dziurda, A.; Dzyuba, A.; Easo, S.; Egede, U.; Egorychev, V.; Eidelman, S.; van Eijk, D.; Eisenhardt, S.; Eitschberger, U.; Ekelhof, R.; Eklund, L.; El Rifai, I.; Elsasser, Ch.; Elsby, D.; Falabella, A.; Färber, C.; Fardell, G.; Farinelli, C.; Farry, S.; Fave, V.; Ferguson, D.; Fernandez Albor, V.; Ferreira Rodrigues, F.; Ferro-Luzzi, M.; Filippov, S.; Fiore, M.; Fitzpatrick, C.; Fontana, M.; Fontanelli, F.; Forty, R.; Francisco, O.; Frank, M.; Frei, C.; Frosini, M.; Furcas, S.; Furfaro, E.; Gallas Torreira, A.; Galli, D.; Gandelman, M.; Gandini, P.; Gao, Y.; Garofoli, J.; Garosi, P.; Garra Tico, J.; Garrido, L.; Gaspar, C.; Gauld, R.; Gersabeck, E.; Gersabeck, M.; Gershon, T.; Ghez, Ph.; Gibson, V.; Gligorov, V. V.; Göbel, C.; Golubkov, D.; Golutvin, A.; Gomes, A.; Gordon, H.; Grabalosa Gándara, M.; Graciani Diaz, R.; Granado Cardoso, L. A.; Graugés, E.; Graziani, G.; Grecu, A.; Greening, E.; Gregson, S.; Griffith, P.; Grünberg, O.; Gui, B.; Gushchin, E.; Guz, Yu.; Gys, T.; Hadjivasiliou, C.; Haefeli, G.; Haen, C.; Haines, S. C.; Hall, S.; Hampson, T.; Hansmann-Menzemer, S.; Harnew, N.; Harnew, S. T.; Harrison, J.; Hartmann, T.; He, J.; Heijne, V.; Hennessy, K.; Henrard, P.; Hernando Morata, J. A.; van Herwijnen, E.; Hicheur, A.; Hicks, E.; Hill, D.; Hoballah, M.; Hombach, C.; Hopchev, P.; Hulsbergen, W.; Hunt, P.; Huse, T.; Hussain, N.; Hutchcroft, D.; Hynds, D.; Iakovenko, V.; Idzik, M.; Ilten, P.; Jacobsson, R.; Jaeger, A.; Jans, E.; Jaton, P.; Jawahery, A.; Jing, F.; John, M.; Johnson, D.; Jones, C. R.; Joram, C.; Jost, B.; Kaballo, M.; Kandybei, S.; Karacson, M.; Karbach, T. M.; Kenyon, I. R.; Kerzel, U.; Ketel, T.; Keune, A.; Khanji, B.; Kochebina, O.; Komarov, I.; Koopman, R. F.; Koppenburg, P.; Korolev, M.; Kozlinskiy, A.; Kravchuk, L.; Kreplin, K.; Kreps, M.; Krocker, G.; Krokovny, P.; Kruse, F.; Kucharczyk, M.; Kudryavtsev, V.; Kvaratskheliya, T.; La Thi, V. N.; Lacarrere, D.; Lafferty, G.; Lai, A.; Lambert, D.; Lambert, R. W.; Lanciotti, E.; Lanfranchi, G.; Langenbruch, C.; Latham, T.; Lazzeroni, C.; Le Gac, R.; van Leerdam, J.; Lees, J.-P.; Lefèvre, R.; Leflat, A.; Lefrançois, J.; Leo, S.; Leroy, O.; Lesiak, T.; Leverington, B.; Li, Y.; Li Gioi, L.; Liles, M.; Lindner, R.; Linn, C.; Liu, B.; Liu, G.; Lohn, S.; Longstaff, I.; Lopes, J. H.; Lopez Asamar, E.; Lopez-March, N.; Lu, H.; Lucchesi, D.; Luisier, J.; Luo, H.; Machefert, F.; Machikhiliyan, I. V.; Maciuc, F.; Maev, O.; Malde, S.; Manca, G.; Mancinelli, G.; Marconi, U.; Märki, R.; Marks, J.; Martellotti, G.; Martens, A.; Martín Sánchez, A.; Martinelli, M.; Martinez Santos, D.; Martins Tostes, D.; Massafferri, A.; Matev, R.; Mathe, Z.; Matteuzzi, C.; Maurice, E.; Mazurov, A.; Mc Skelly, B.; McCarthy, J.; McNab, A.; McNulty, R.; Meadows, B.; Meier, F.; Meissner, M.; Merk, M.; Milanes, D. A.; Minard, M.-N.; Molina Rodriguez, J.; Monteil, S.; Moran, D.; Morawski, P.; Morello, M. J.; Mountain, R.; Mous, I.; Muheim, F.; Müller, K.; Muresan, R.; Muryn, B.; Muster, B.; Naik, P.; Nakada, T.; Nandakumar, R.; Nasteva, I.; Needham, M.; Neufeld, N.; Nguyen, A. D.; Nguyen, T. D.; Nguyen-Mau, C.; Nicol, M.; Niess, V.; Niet, R.; Nikitin, N.; Nikodem, T.; Nomerotski, A.; Novoselov, A.; Oblakowska-Mucha, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Oggero, S.; Ogilvy, S.; Okhrimenko, O.; Oldeman, R.; Orlandea, M.; Otalora Goicochea, J. M.; Owen, P.; Oyanguren, A.; Pal, B. K.; Palano, A.; Palutan, M.; Panman, J.; Papanestis, A.; Pappagallo, M.; Parkes, C.; Parkinson, C. J.; Passaleva, G.; Patel, G. D.; Patel, M.; Patrick, G. N.; Patrignani, C.; Pavel-Nicorescu, C.; Pazos Alvarez, A.; Pellegrino, A.; Penso, G.; Pepe Altarelli, M.; Perazzini, S.; Perego, D. L.; Perez Trigo, E.; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, A.; Perret, P.; Perrin-Terrin, M.; Pessina, G.; Petridis, K.; Petrolini, A.; Phan, A.; Picatoste Olloqui, E.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pilař, T.; Pinci, D.; Playfer, S.; Plo Casasus, M.; Polci, F.; Polok, G.; Poluektov, A.; Polycarpo, E.; Popov, A.; Popov, D.; Popovici, B.; Potterat, C.; Powell, A.; Prisciandaro, J.; Pritchard, A.; Prouve, C.; Pugatch, V.; Puig Navarro, A.; Punzi, G.; Qian, W.; Rademacker, J. H.; Rakotomiaramanana, B.; Rama, M.; Rangel, M. S.; Raniuk, I.; Rauschmayr, N.; Raven, G.; Redford, S.; Reid, M. M.; dos Reis, A. C.; Ricciardi, S.; Richards, A.; Rinnert, K.; Rives Molina, V.; Roa Romero, D. A.; Robbe, P.; Rodrigues, E.; Rodriguez Perez, P.; Roiser, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Romero Vidal, A.; Rouvinet, J.; Ruf, T.; Ruffini, F.; Ruiz, H.; Ruiz Valls, P.; Sabatino, G.; Saborido Silva, J. J.; Sagidova, N.; Sail, P.; Saitta, B.; Salustino Guimaraes, V.; Salzmann, C.; Sanmartin Sedes, B.; Sannino, M.; Santacesaria, R.; Santamarina Rios, C.; Santovetti, E.; Sapunov, M.; Sarti, A.; Satriano, C.; Satta, A.; Savrie, M.; Savrina, D.; Schaack, P.; Schiller, M.; Schindler, H.; Schlupp, M.; Schmelling, M.; Schmidt, B.; Schneider, O.; Schopper, A.; Schune, M.-H.; Schwemmer, R.; Sciascia, B.; Sciubba, A.; Seco, M.; Semennikov, A.; Senderowska, K.; Sepp, I.; Serra, N.; Serrano, J.; Seyfert, P.; Shapkin, M.; Shapoval, I.; Shatalov, P.; Shcheglov, Y.; Shears, T.; Shekhtman, L.; Shevchenko, O.; Shevchenko, V.; Shires, A.; Silva Coutinho, R.; Skwarnicki, T.; Smith, N. A.; Smith, E.; Smith, M.; Sokoloff, M. D.; Soler, F. J. P.; Soomro, F.; Souza, D.; Souza De Paula, B.; Spaan, B.; Sparkes, A.; Spradlin, P.; Stagni, F.; Stahl, S.; Steinkamp, O.; Stoica, S.; Stone, S.; Storaci, B.; Straticiuc, M.; Straumann, U.; Subbiah, V. K.; Sun, L.; Swientek, S.; Syropoulos, V.; Szczekowski, M.; Szczypka, P.; Szumlak, T.; T'Jampens, S.; Teklishyn, M.; Teodorescu, E.; Teubert, F.; Thomas, C.; Thomas, E.; van Tilburg, J.; Tisserand, V.; Tobin, M.; Tolk, S.; Tonelli, D.; Topp-Joergensen, S.; Torr, N.; Tournefier, E.; Tourneur, S.; Tran, M. T.; Tresch, M.; Tsaregorodtsev, A.; Tsopelas, P.; Tuning, N.; Ubeda Garcia, M.; Ukleja, A.; Urner, D.; Uwer, U.; Vagnoni, V.; Valenti, G.; Vazquez Gomez, R.; Vazquez Regueiro, P.; Vecchi, S.; Velthuis, J. J.; Veltri, M.; Veneziano, G.; Vesterinen, M.; Viaud, B.; Vieira, D.; Vilasis-Cardona, X.; Vollhardt, A.; Volyanskyy, D.; Voong, D.; Vorobyev, A.; Vorobyev, V.; Voß, C.; Voss, H.; Waldi, R.; Wallace, R.; Wandernoth, S.; Wang, J.; Ward, D. R.; Watson, N. K.; Webber, A. D.; Websdale, D.; Whitehead, M.; Wicht, J.; Wiechczynski, J.; Wiedner, D.; Wiggers, L.; Wilkinson, G.; Williams, M. P.; Williams, M.; Wilson, F. F.; Wishahi, J.; Witek, M.; Wotton, S. A.; Wright, S.; Wu, S.; Wyllie, K.; Xie, Y.; Xing, Z.; Yang, Z.; Young, R.; Yuan, X.; Yushchenko, O.; Zangoli, M.; Zavertyaev, M.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, W. C.; Zhang, Y.; Zhelezov, A.; Zhokhov, A.; Zhong, L.; Zvyagin, A.

2013-10-01

A combination of three LHCb measurements of the CKM angle γ is presented. The decays B±→DK± and B±→Dπ± are used, where D denotes an admixture of D0 and D mesons, decaying into K+K-, π+π-, K±π∓, K±π∓π±π∓, KS0π+π-, or KS0K+K- final states. All measurements use a dataset corresponding to 1.0 fb of integrated luminosity. Combining results from B±→DK± decays alone a best-fit value of γ=72.0° is found, and confidence intervals are set γ∈[56.4,86.7]° at 68% CL, γ∈[42.6,99.6]° at 95% CL. The best-fit value of γ found from a combination of results from B±→Dπ± decays alone, is γ=18.9°, and the confidence intervals γ∈[7.4,99.2]°∪[167.9,176.4]° at 68% CL are set, without constraint at 95% CL. The combination of results from B±→DK± and B±→Dπ± decays gives a best-fit value of γ=72.6° and the confidence intervals γ∈[55.4,82.3]° at 68% CL, γ∈[40.2,92.7]° at 95% CL are set. All values are expressed modulo 180°, and are obtained taking into account the effect of D0-D mixing.

Stability of INFIT and OUTFIT Compared to Simulated Estimates in Applied Setting.

PubMed

Hodge, Kari J; Morgan, Grant B

Residual-based fit statistics are commonly used as an indication of the extent to which the item response data fit the Rash model. Fit statistic estimates are influenced by sample size and rules-of thumb estimates may result in incorrect conclusions about the extent to which the model fits the data. Estimates obtained in this analysis were compared to 250 simulated data sets to examine the stability of the estimates. All INFIT estimates were within the rule-of-thumb range of 0.7 to 1.3. However, only 82% of the INFIT estimates fell within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of the simulated item's INFIT distributions using this 95% confidence-like interval. This is a 18 percentage point difference in items that were classified as acceptable. Fourty-eight percent of OUTFIT estimates fell within the 0.7 to 1.3 rule- of-thumb range. Whereas 34% of OUTFIT estimates fell within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of the simulated item's OUTFIT distributions. This is a 13 percentage point difference in items that were classified as acceptable. When using the rule-of- thumb ranges for fit estimates the magnitude of misfit was smaller than with the 95% confidence interval of the simulated distribution. The findings indicate that the use of confidence intervals as critical values for fit statistics leads to different model data fit conclusions than traditional rule of thumb critical values.

Tablet potency of Tianeptine in coated tablets by near infrared spectroscopy: model optimisation, calibration transfer and confidence intervals.

PubMed

Boiret, Mathieu; Meunier, Loïc; Ginot, Yves-Michel

2011-02-20

A near infrared (NIR) method was developed for determination of tablet potency of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in a complex coated tablet matrix. The calibration set contained samples from laboratory and production scale batches. The reference values were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and partial least squares (PLS) regression was used to establish a model. The model was challenged by calculating tablet potency of two external test sets. Root mean square errors of prediction were respectively equal to 2.0% and 2.7%. To use this model with a second spectrometer from the production field, a calibration transfer method called piecewise direct standardisation (PDS) was used. After the transfer, the root mean square error of prediction of the first test set was 2.4% compared to 4.0% without transferring the spectra. A statistical technique using bootstrap of PLS residuals was used to estimate confidence intervals of tablet potency calculations. This method requires an optimised PLS model, selection of the bootstrap number and determination of the risk. In the case of a chemical analysis, the tablet potency value will be included within the confidence interval calculated by the bootstrap method. An easy to use graphical interface was developed to easily determine if the predictions, surrounded by minimum and maximum values, are within the specifications defined by the regulatory organisation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

HISTORY OF SUNLIGHT EXPOSURE IS A RISK FACTOR FOR AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATION.

PubMed

Schick, Tina; Ersoy, Lebriz; Lechanteur, Yara T E; Saksens, Nicole T M; Hoyng, Carel B; den Hollander, Anneke I; Kirchhof, Bernd; Fauser, Sascha

2016-04-01

To evaluate effects of current and past sunlight exposure and iris color on early and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Of 3,701 individuals from the EUGENDA database, 752 (20.3%) showed early AMD, 1,179 (31.9%) late AMD, and 1,770 (47.8%) were controls. Information about current and past sunlight exposure, former occupation type, subdivided in indoor working and outdoor working, and iris color were obtained by standardized interviewer-assisted questionnaires. Associations between environmental factors adjusted for age, gender, and smoking and early and late AMD were performed by multivariate regression analysis. Current sunlight exposure showed no association with early AMD or late AMD, but past sunlight exposure (≥8 hours outside daily) was significantly associated with early AMD (odds ratio: 5.54, 95% confidence interval 1.25-24.58, P = 0.02) and late AMD (odds ratio: 2.77, 95% confidence interval 1.25-6.16, P = 0.01). Outside working was found to be associated with late AMD (odds ratio: 2.57, 95% confidence interval 1.89-3.48, P = 1.58 × 10). No association was observed between iris color and early or late AMD. Sunlight exposure during working life is an important risk factor for AMD, whereas sunlight exposure after retirement seems to have less influence on the disease development. Therefore, preventive measures, for example, wearing sunglasses to minimize sunlight exposure, should start early to prevent development of AMD later in life.

Training with video imaging improves the initial intubation success rates of paramedic trainees in an operating room setting.

PubMed

Levitan, R M; Goldman, T S; Bryan, D A; Shofer, F; Herlich, A

2001-01-01

Video imaging of intubation as seen by the laryngoscopist has not been a part of traditional instruction methods, and its potential impact on novice intubation success rates has not been evaluated. We prospectively tracked the success rates of novice intubators in paramedic classes who were required to watch a 26-minute instructional videotape made with a direct laryngoscopy imaging system (video group). We compared the prospectively obtained intubation success rate of the video group against retrospectively collected data from prior classes of paramedic students (traditional group) in the same training program. All classes received the same didactic airway instruction, same mannequin practice time, same paramedic textbook, and were trained in the same operating room with the same teaching staff. The traditional group (n=113, total attempts 783) had a mean individual intubation success rate of 46.7% (95% confidence interval 42.2% to 51.3%). The video group (n=36, total attempts 102) had a mean individual intubation success rate of 88.1% (95% confidence interval 79.6% to 96.5%). The difference in mean intubation success rates between the 2 groups was 41.4% (95% confidence interval 31.1% to 50.7%, P <.0001). The 2 groups did not differ in respect to age, male sex, or level of education. An instructional videotape made with the direct laryngoscopy video system significantly improved the initial success rates of novice intubators in an operating room setting.

Validity and applicability of a new recording method for hypertension.

PubMed

Mas-Heredia, Minerva; Molés-Moliner, Eloisa; González-de Paz, Luis; Kostov, Belchin; Ortiz-Molina, Jacinto; Mauri-Vázquez, Vanesa; Menacho-Pascual, Ignacio; Cararach-Salami, Daniel; Sierra-Benito, Cristina; Sisó-Almirall, Antoni

2014-09-01

Blood pressure measurement methods and conditions are determinants of hypertension diagnosis. A recent British guideline recommends systematic 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. However, these devices are not available at all health centers and they can only be used by 1 patient per day. The aim of this study was to test a new blood pressure recording method to see if it gave the same diagnostic results as 24-h blood pressure monitoring. One-hour blood pressure monitoring under routine clinical practice conditions was compared with standard method of day time recording by analyzing the coefficient of correlation and Bland-Altman plots. The Kappa index was used to calculate degree of agreement. Method sensitivity and specificity were also analyzed. Of the 102 participants, 89 (87.3%) obtained the same diagnosis regardless of method, with high between-method agreement (κ= 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.91). We observed robust correlations between diastolic (r=0.85) and systolic blood pressure (r=0.76) readings. Sensitivity and specificity for the new method for diagnosing white coat hypertension were 85.2% (95% confidence interval 67.5%-94.1%) and 92% (95% confidence interval, 83.6%-96.3%), respectively. One-hour blood pressure monitoring is a valid and reliable method for diagnosing hypertension and for classifying hypertension subpopulations, especially in white coat hypertension and refractory hypertension. This also leads to a more productive use of monitoring instruments. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic position and education in patients with coeliac disease.

PubMed

Olén, Ola; Bihagen, Erik; Rasmussen, Finn; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2012-06-01

Socioeconomic position and education are strongly associated with several chronic diseases, but their relation to coeliac disease is unclear. We examined educational level and socioeconomic position in patients with coeliac disease. We identified 29,096 patients with coeliac disease through biopsy reports (defined as Marsh 3: villous atrophy) from all Swedish pathology departments (n=28). Age- and sex-matched controls were randomly sampled from the Swedish Total Population Register (n=145,090). Data on level of education and socioeconomic position were obtained from the Swedish Education Register and the Occupational Register. We calculated odds ratios for the risk of having coeliac disease based on socioeconomic position according to the European Socioeconomic Classification (9 levels) and education. Compared to individuals with high socioeconomic position (level 1 of 9) coeliac disease was less common in the lowest socioeconomic stratum (routine occupations=level 9 of 9: adjusted odds ratio=0.89; 95% confidence interval=0.84-0.94) but not less common in individuals with moderately low socioeconomic position: (level 7/9: adjusted odds ratio=0.96; 95% confidence interval=0.91-1.02; and level 8/9: adjusted odds ratio=0.99; 95% confidence interval=0.93-1.05). Coeliac disease was not associated with educational level. In conclusion, diagnosed coeliac disease was slightly less common in individuals with low socioeconomic position but not associated with educational level. Coeliac disease may be unrecognised in individuals of low socioeconomic position. Copyright © 2012 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new framework of statistical inferences based on the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in an incomplete contingency table.

PubMed

Tian, Guo-Liang; Li, Hui-Qiong

2017-08-01

Some existing confidence interval methods and hypothesis testing methods in the analysis of a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins entirely depend on an underlying assumption that the sampling distribution of the observed counts is a product of independent multinomial/binomial distributions for complete and incomplete counts. However, it can be shown that this independency assumption is incorrect and can result in unreliable conclusions because of the under-estimation of the uncertainty. Therefore, the first objective of this paper is to derive the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins. The second objective is to provide a new framework for analyzing incomplete contingency tables based on the derived joint sampling distribution of the observed counts by developing a Fisher scoring algorithm to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of interest, the bootstrap confidence interval methods, and the bootstrap testing hypothesis methods. We compare the differences between the valid sampling distribution and the sampling distribution under the independency assumption. Simulation studies showed that average/expected confidence-interval widths of parameters based on the sampling distribution under the independency assumption are shorter than those based on the new sampling distribution, yielding unrealistic results. A real data set is analyzed to illustrate the application of the new sampling distribution for incomplete contingency tables and the analysis results again confirm the conclusions obtained from the simulation studies.

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English

2000-01-01

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

Long-term heart disease and stroke mortality among former American prisoners of war of World War II and the Korean Conflict: results of a 50-year follow-up.

PubMed

Page, W F; Brass, L M

2001-09-01

For the first 30 years after repatriation, former American prisoners of war (POWs) of World War II and the Korean Conflict had lower death rates for heart disease and stroke than non-POW veteran controls and the U.S. population, but subsequent morbidity data suggested that this survival advantage may have disappeared. We used U.S. federal records to obtain death data through 1996 and used proportional hazards analysis to compare the mortality experience of POWs and controls. POWs aged 75 years and older showed a significantly higher risk of heart disease deaths than controls (hazard ratio = 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.56), and their stroke mortality was also increased, although not significantly (hazard ratio = 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-1.91). These results suggest that circulatory disease sequelae of serious, acute malnutrition and the stresses associated with imprisonment may not appear until after many decades.

Consecutive salmonella outbreaks traced to the same bakery.

PubMed Central

Evans, M. R.; Tromans, J. P.; Dexter, E. L.; Ribeiro, C. D.; Gardner, D.

1996-01-01

Two consecutive community outbreaks of Salmonella enteritidis phage type 4 (PT4) traced to the same bakery occurred in Cardiff, Wales during August-September 1992. In the first outbreak, illness was associated with eating custard slices (odds ratio 23.8, 95% confidence interval 6.5-94.4, P < 0.0001), and in the second, with eating fresh cream cakes (odds ratio 15.8, 95% confidence interval 1.6-374, P = 0.004). Environmental investigations implicated cross-contamination during preparation of the cold-custard mix as the cause of the first outbreak, and inadequate cleaning and disinfection of nozzles used for piping cream in the second outbreak. S. enteritidis PT4 was isolated from fresh cream sponge cake retained by a case and from two fresh cream cakes and four environmental swabs obtained at the bakery. This incident illustrates the hazard of widespread environmental contamination with salmonella and the need for thorough environmental cleansing for any premises implicated in an outbreak of food poisoning. PMID:8620907

Applying Emax model and bivariate thin plate splines to assess drug interactions

PubMed Central

Kong, Maiying; Lee, J. Jack

2014-01-01

We review the semiparametric approach previously proposed by Kong and Lee and extend it to a case in which the dose-effect curves follow the Emax model instead of the median effect equation. When the maximum effects for the investigated drugs are different, we provide a procedure to obtain the additive effect based on the Loewe additivity model. Then, we apply a bivariate thin plate spline approach to estimate the effect beyond additivity along with its 95% point-wise confidence interval as well as its 95% simultaneous confidence interval for any combination dose. Thus, synergy, additivity, and antagonism can be identified. The advantages of the method are that it provides an overall assessment of the combination effect on the entire two-dimensional dose space spanned by the experimental doses, and it enables us to identify complex patterns of drug interaction in combination studies. In addition, this approach is robust to outliers. To illustrate this procedure, we analyzed data from two case studies. PMID:20036878

Applying Emax model and bivariate thin plate splines to assess drug interactions.

PubMed

Kong, Maiying; Lee, J Jack

2010-01-01

We review the semiparametric approach previously proposed by Kong and Lee and extend it to a case in which the dose-effect curves follow the Emax model instead of the median effect equation. When the maximum effects for the investigated drugs are different, we provide a procedure to obtain the additive effect based on the Loewe additivity model. Then, we apply a bivariate thin plate spline approach to estimate the effect beyond additivity along with its 95 per cent point-wise confidence interval as well as its 95 per cent simultaneous confidence interval for any combination dose. Thus, synergy, additivity, and antagonism can be identified. The advantages of the method are that it provides an overall assessment of the combination effect on the entire two-dimensional dose space spanned by the experimental doses, and it enables us to identify complex patterns of drug interaction in combination studies. In addition, this approach is robust to outliers. To illustrate this procedure, we analyzed data from two case studies.

Prepregnancy obesity and complement system activation in early pregnancy and the subsequent development of preeclampsia.

PubMed

Lynch, Anne M; Eckel, Robert H; Murphy, James R; Gibbs, Ronald S; West, Nancy A; Giclas, Patricia C; Salmon, Jane E; Holers, V Michael

2012-05-01

We hypothesized that women who are obese before they become pregnant and also have elevations of complement Bb and C3a in the top quartile in early pregnancy would have the highest risk of preeclampsia compared with a referent group of women who were not obese and had levels of complement less than the top quartile. This was a prospective study of 1013 women recruited at less than 20 weeks' gestation. An EDTA-plasma sample was obtained, and complement fragments were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. The data were analyzed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Women who were obese with levels of Bb or C3a in the top quartile were 10.0 (95% confidence interval, 3.3-30) and 8.8 (95% confidence interval, 3-24) times, respectively, more likely to develop preeclampsia compared with the referent group. We demonstrate a combined impact of obesity and elevated complement on the development of preeclampsia. Copyright © 2012. Published by Mosby, Inc.

Efficient bootstrap estimates for tail statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan

2017-03-01

Bootstrap resamples can be used to investigate the tail of empirical distributions as well as return value estimates from the extremal behaviour of the sample. Specifically, the confidence intervals on return value estimates or bounds on in-sample tail statistics can be obtained using bootstrap techniques. However, non-parametric bootstrapping from the entire sample is expensive. It is shown here that it suffices to bootstrap from a small subset consisting of the highest entries in the sequence to make estimates that are essentially identical to bootstraps from the entire sample. Similarly, bootstrap estimates of confidence intervals of threshold return estimates are found to be well approximated by using a subset consisting of the highest entries. This has practical consequences in fields such as meteorology, oceanography and hydrology where return values are calculated from very large gridded model integrations spanning decades at high temporal resolution or from large ensembles of independent and identically distributed model fields. In such cases the computational savings are substantial.

Overlap between treatment and control distributions as an effect size measure in experiments.

PubMed

Hedges, Larry V; Olkin, Ingram

2016-03-01

The proportion π of treatment group observations that exceed the control group mean has been proposed as an effect size measure for experiments that randomly assign independent units into 2 groups. We give the exact distribution of a simple estimator of π based on the standardized mean difference and use it to study the small sample bias of this estimator. We also give the minimum variance unbiased estimator of π under 2 models, one in which the variance of the mean difference is known and one in which the variance is unknown. We show how to use the relation between the standardized mean difference and the overlap measure to compute confidence intervals for π and show that these results can be used to obtain unbiased estimators, large sample variances, and confidence intervals for 3 related effect size measures based on the overlap. Finally, we show how the effect size π can be used in a meta-analysis. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

On correct evaluation techniques of brightness enhancement effect measurement data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukačka, Leoš; Dupuis, Pascal; Motomura, Hideki; Rozkovec, Jiří; Kolář, Milan; Zissis, Georges; Jinno, Masafumi

2017-11-01

This paper aims to establish confidence intervals of the quantification of brightness enhancement effects resulting from the use of pulsing bright light. It is found that the methods used so far may yield significant bias in the published results, overestimating or underestimating the enhancement effect. The authors propose to use a linear algebra method called the total least squares. Upon an example dataset, it is shown that this method does not yield biased results. The statistical significance of the results is also computed. It is concluded over an observation set that the currently used linear algebra methods present many patterns of noise sensitivity. Changing algorithm details leads to inconsistent results. It is thus recommended to use the method with the lowest noise sensitivity. Moreover, it is shown that this method also permits one to obtain an estimate of the confidence interval. This paper neither aims to publish results about a particular experiment nor to draw any particular conclusion about existence or nonexistence of the brightness enhancement effect.

Bootstrap investigation of the stability of a Cox regression model.

PubMed

Altman, D G; Andersen, P K

1989-07-01

We describe a bootstrap investigation of the stability of a Cox proportional hazards regression model resulting from the analysis of a clinical trial of azathioprine versus placebo in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. We have considered stability to refer both to the choice of variables included in the model and, more importantly, to the predictive ability of the model. In stepwise Cox regression analyses of 100 bootstrap samples using 17 candidate variables, the most frequently selected variables were those selected in the original analysis, and no other important variable was identified. Thus there was no reason to doubt the model obtained in the original analysis. For each patient in the trial, bootstrap confidence intervals were constructed for the estimated probability of surviving two years. It is shown graphically that these intervals are markedly wider than those obtained from the original model.

Does blood transfusion affect intermediate survival after coronary artery bypass surgery?

PubMed

Mikkola, R; Heikkinen, J; Lahtinen, J; Paone, R; Juvonen, T; Biancari, F

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of transfusion of blood products on intermediate outcome after coronary artery bypass surgery. Complete data on perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery were available from 2001 patients who were operated at our institution. Transfusion of any blood product (relative risk = 1.678, 95% confidence interval = 1.087-2.590) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The additive effect of each blood product on all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.401, 95% confidence interval = 1.203-1.630) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 1.553, 95% confidence interval = 1.273-1.895) was evident when the sum of each blood product was included in the regression models. However, when single blood products were included in the regression model, transfusion of fresh frozen plasma/Octaplas® was the only blood product associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.692, 95% confidence interval = 1.222-2.344) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 2.125, 95% confidence interval = 1.414-3.194). The effect of blood product transfusion was particularly evident during the first three postoperative months. Since follow-up was truncated at 3 months, transfusion of any blood product was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 2.998, 95% confidence interval = 1.053-0.537). Analysis of patients who survived or had at least 3 months of potential follow-up showed that transfusion of any blood product was not associated with a significantly increased risk of intermediate all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.430, 95% confidence interval = 0.880-2.323). Transfusion of any blood product is associated with a significant risk of all-cause and cardiac mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery. Such a risk seems to be limited to the early postoperative period and diminishes later on. Among blood products, perioperative use of fresh frozen plasma or Octaplas seems to be the main determinant of mortality.

Rapid Contour-based Segmentation for 18F-FDG PET Imaging of Lung Tumors by Using ITK-SNAP: Comparison to Expert-based Segmentation.

PubMed

Besson, Florent L; Henry, Théophraste; Meyer, Céline; Chevance, Virgile; Roblot, Victoire; Blanchet, Elise; Arnould, Victor; Grimon, Gilles; Chekroun, Malika; Mabille, Laurence; Parent, Florence; Seferian, Andrei; Bulifon, Sophie; Montani, David; Humbert, Marc; Chaumet-Riffaud, Philippe; Lebon, Vincent; Durand, Emmanuel

2018-04-03

Purpose To assess the performance of the ITK-SNAP software for fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) segmentation of complex-shaped lung tumors compared with an optimized, expert-based manual reference standard. Materials and Methods Seventy-six FDG PET images of thoracic lesions were retrospectively segmented by using ITK-SNAP software. Each tumor was manually segmented by six raters to generate an optimized reference standard by using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimate algorithm. Four raters segmented 76 FDG PET images of lung tumors twice by using ITK-SNAP active contour algorithm. Accuracy of ITK-SNAP procedure was assessed by using Dice coefficient and Hausdorff metric. Interrater and intrarater reliability were estimated by using intraclass correlation coefficients of output volumes. Finally, the ITK-SNAP procedure was compared with currently recommended PET tumor delineation methods on the basis of thresholding at 41% volume of interest (VOI; VOI 41 ) and 50% VOI (VOI 50 ) of the tumor's maximal metabolism intensity. Results Accuracy estimates for the ITK-SNAP procedure indicated a Dice coefficient of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.89) and a Hausdorff distance of 12.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 9.82, 15.32). Interrater reliability was an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 0.96). The intrarater reliabilities were intraclass correlation coefficients above 0.97. Finally, VOI 41 and VOI 50 accuracy metrics were as follows: Dice coefficient, 0.48 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.51) and 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.30, 0.38), respectively, and Hausdorff distance, 25.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 21.7, 31.4) and 31.3 mm (95% confidence interval: 26.8, 38.4), respectively. Conclusion ITK-SNAP is accurate and reliable for active-contour-based segmentation of heterogeneous thoracic PET tumors. ITK-SNAP surpassed the recommended PET methods compared with ground truth manual segmentation. © RSNA, 2018.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Ten studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0. 90); and a trend to reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.00). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0. 12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2002-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in order to provide robust estimates of bias and precision for constructing confidence intervals for new patients. Assumptions of linearity and non-proportional bias should be assessed thoroughly.

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Fermi/GBM GRB time-resolved spectral catalog (Yu+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-F.; Preece, R. D.; Greiner, J.; Bhat, P. N.; Bissaldi, E.; Briggs, M. S.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V.; Goldstein, A.; von Kienlin; A.; Kouveliotou, C.; Mailyan, B.; Meegan, C. A.; Paciesas, W. S.; Rau, A.; Roberts, O. J.; Veres, P.; Wilson-Hodge, C.; Zhang, B.-B.; van Eerten, H. J.

2016-01-01

Time-resolved spectral analysis results of BEST models: for each spectrum GRB name using the Fermi GBM trigger designation, spectrum number within individual burst, start time Tstart and end time Tstop for the time bin, BEST model, best-fit parameters of the BEST model, value of CSTAT per degrees of freedom, 10keV-1MeV photon and energy flux are given. Ep evolutionary trends: for each burst GRB name, number of spectra with Ep, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep_ and photon flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep and energy flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Ep and time and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by computer for 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by human eyes are given. (2 data files).

PREDICT: a diagnostic accuracy study of a tool for predicting mortality within one year: who should have an advance healthcare directive?

PubMed

Richardson, Philip; Greenslade, Jaimi; Shanmugathasan, Sulochana; Doucet, Katherine; Widdicombe, Neil; Chu, Kevin; Brown, Anthony

2015-01-01

CARING is a screening tool developed to identify patients who have a high likelihood of death in 1 year. This study sought to validate a modified CARING tool (termed PREDICT) using a population of patients presenting to the Emergency Department. In total, 1000 patients aged over 55 years who were admitted to hospital via the Emergency Department between January and June 2009 were eligible for inclusion in this study. Data on the six prognostic indicators comprising PREDICT were obtained retrospectively from patient records. One-year mortality data were obtained from the State Death Registry. Weights were applied to each PREDICT criterion, and its final score ranged from 0 to 44. Receiver operator characteristic analyses and diagnostic accuracy statistics were used to assess the accuracy of PREDICT in identifying 1-year mortality. The sample comprised 976 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 71 years (62-81 years) and a 1-year mortality of 23.4%. In total, 50% had ≥1 PREDICT criteria with a 1-year mortality of 40.4%. Receiver operator characteristic analysis gave an area under the curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.89). Using a cut-off of 13 points, PREDICT had a 95.3% (95% confidence interval: 93.6-96.6) specificity and 53.9% (95% confidence interval: 47.5-60.3) sensitivity for predicting 1-year mortality. PREDICT was simpler than the CARING criteria and identified 158 patients per 1000 admitted who could benefit from advance care planning. PREDICT was successfully applied to the Australian healthcare system with findings similar to the original CARING study conducted in the United States. This tool could improve end-of-life care by identifying who should have advance care planning or an advance healthcare directive. © The Author(s) 2014.

A web search on environmental topics: what is the role of ranking?

PubMed

Covolo, Loredana; Filisetti, Barbara; Mascaretti, Silvia; Limina, Rosa Maria; Gelatti, Umberto

2013-12-01

Although the Internet is easy to use, the mechanisms and logic behind a Web search are often unknown. Reliable information can be obtained, but it may not be visible as the Web site is not located in the first positions of search results. The possible risks of adverse health effects arising from environmental hazards are issues of increasing public interest, and therefore the information about these risks, particularly on topics for which there is no scientific evidence, is very crucial. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the presentation of information on some environmental health topics differed among various search engines, assuming that the most reliable information should come from institutional Web sites. Five search engines were used: Google, Yahoo!, Bing, Ask, and AOL. The following topics were searched in combination with the word "health": "nuclear energy," "electromagnetic waves," "air pollution," "waste," and "radon." For each topic three key words were used. The first 30 search results for each query were considered. The ranking variability among the search engines and the type of search results were analyzed for each topic and for each key word. The ranking of institutional Web sites was given particular consideration. Variable results were obtained when surfing the Internet on different environmental health topics. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that, when searching for radon and air pollution topics, it is more likely to find institutional Web sites in the first 10 positions compared with nuclear power (odds ratio=3.4, 95% confidence interval 2.1-5.4 and odds ratio=2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.8-4.7, respectively) and also when using Google compared with Bing (odds ratio=3.1, 95% confidence interval 1.9-5.1). The increasing use of online information could play an important role in forming opinions. Web users should become more aware of the importance of finding reliable information, and health institutions should be able to make that information more visible.

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Assessing Interval Estimation Methods for Hill Model ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Hill model of concentration-response is ubiquitous in toxicology, perhaps because its parameters directly relate to biologically significant metrics of toxicity such as efficacy and potency. Point estimates of these parameters obtained through least squares regression or maximum likelihood are commonly used in high-throughput risk assessment, but such estimates typically fail to include reliable information concerning confidence in (or precision of) the estimates. To address this issue, we examined methods for assessing uncertainty in Hill model parameter estimates derived from concentration-response data. In particular, using a sample of ToxCast concentration-response data sets, we applied four methods for obtaining interval estimates that are based on asymptotic theory, bootstrapping (two varieties), and Bayesian parameter estimation, and then compared the results. These interval estimation methods generally did not agree, so we devised a simulation study to assess their relative performance. We generated simulated data by constructing four statistical error models capable of producing concentration-response data sets comparable to those observed in ToxCast. We then applied the four interval estimation methods to the simulated data and compared the actual coverage of the interval estimates to the nominal coverage (e.g., 95%) in order to quantify performance of each of the methods in a variety of cases (i.e., different values of the true Hill model paramet

Pregnancy and birth outcomes in couples with infertility with and without assisted reproductive technology: with an emphasis on US population-based studies.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara

2017-09-01

Infertility, defined as the inability to conceive within 1 year of unprotected intercourse, affects an estimated 80 million individuals worldwide, or 10-15% of couples of reproductive age. Assisted reproductive technology includes all infertility treatments to achieve conception; in vitro fertilization is the process by which an oocyte is fertilized by semen outside the body; non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology treatments include ovulation induction, artificial insemination, and intrauterine insemination. Use of assisted reproductive technology has risen steadily in the United States during the past 2 decades due to several reasons, including childbearing at older maternal ages and increasing insurance coverage. The number of in vitro fertilization cycles in the United States has nearly doubled from 2000 through 2013 and currently 1.7% of all live births in the United States are the result of this technology. Since the birth of the first child from in vitro fertilization >35 years ago, >5 million babies have been born from in vitro fertilization, half within the past 6 years. It is estimated that 1% of singletons, 19% of twins, and 25% of triplet or higher multiples are due to in vitro fertilization, and 4%, 21%, and 52%, respectively, are due to non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology. Higher plurality at birth results in a >10-fold increase in the risks for prematurity and low birthweight in twins vs singletons (adjusted odds ratio, 11.84; 95% confidence interval, 10.56-13.27 and adjusted odds ratio, 10.68; 95% confidence interval, 9.45-12.08, respectively). The use of donor oocytes is associated with increased risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.78) and prematurity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.83). The use of thawed embryos is associated with higher risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.57) and large-for-gestation birthweight (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.08). Among singletons, in vitro fertilization is associated with increased risk of severe maternal morbidity compared with fertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.88; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.98, respectively) and subfertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-3.00; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.35, respectively). Among twins, cesarean in vitro fertilization deliveries have significantly greater severe maternal morbidity compared to cesarean fertile deliveries (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.93). Subfertility, with or without in vitro fertilization or non-in vitro fertilization infertility treatments to achieve a pregnancy, is associated with increased risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. The major risk from in vitro fertilization treatments of multiple births (and the associated excess of perinatal morbidity) has been reduced over time, with fewer and better-quality embryos being transferred. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Inverse modeling with RZWQM2 to predict water quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, Bernard T.; Malone, Robert W.; Ma, Liwang; Green, Christopher T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Jaynes, Dan B.

2011-01-01

This chapter presents guidelines for autocalibration of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) by inverse modeling using PEST parameter estimation software (Doherty, 2010). Two sites with diverse climate and management were considered for simulation of N losses by leaching and in drain flow: an almond [Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D.A. Webb] orchard in the San Joaquin Valley, California and the Walnut Creek watershed in central Iowa, which is predominantly in corn (Zea mays L.)–soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation. Inverse modeling provides an objective statistical basis for calibration that involves simultaneous adjustment of model parameters and yields parameter confidence intervals and sensitivities. We describe operation of PEST in both parameter estimation and predictive analysis modes. The goal of parameter estimation is to identify a unique set of parameters that minimize a weighted least squares objective function, and the goal of predictive analysis is to construct a nonlinear confidence interval for a prediction of interest by finding a set of parameters that maximizes or minimizes the prediction while maintaining the model in a calibrated state. We also describe PEST utilities (PAR2PAR, TSPROC) for maintaining ordered relations among model parameters (e.g., soil root growth factor) and for post-processing of RZWQM2 outputs representing different cropping practices at the Iowa site. Inverse modeling provided reasonable fits to observed water and N fluxes and directly benefitted the modeling through: (i) simultaneous adjustment of multiple parameters versus one-at-a-time adjustment in manual approaches; (ii) clear indication by convergence criteria of when calibration is complete; (iii) straightforward detection of nonunique and insensitive parameters, which can affect the stability of PEST and RZWQM2; and (iv) generation of confidence intervals for uncertainty analysis of parameters and model predictions. Composite scaled sensitivities, which reflect the total information provided by the observations for a parameter, indicated that most of the RZWQM2 parameters at the California study site (CA) and Iowa study site (IA) could be reliably estimated by regression. Correlations obtained in the CA case indicated that all model parameters could be uniquely estimated by inverse modeling. Although water content at field capacity was highly correlated with bulk density (−0.94), the correlation is less than the threshold for nonuniqueness (0.95, absolute value basis). Additionally, we used truncated singular value decomposition (SVD) at CA to mitigate potential problems with highly correlated and insensitive parameters. Singular value decomposition estimates linear combinations (eigenvectors) of the original process-model parameters. Parameter confidence intervals (CIs) at CA indicated that parameters were reliably estimated with the possible exception of an organic pool transfer coefficient (R45), which had a comparatively wide CI. However, the 95% confidence interval for R45 (0.03–0.35) is mostly within the range of values reported for this parameter. Predictive analysis at CA generated confidence intervals that were compared with independently measured annual water flux (groundwater recharge) and median nitrate concentration in a collocated monitoring well as part of model evaluation. Both the observed recharge (42.3 cm yr−1) and nitrate concentration (24.3 mg L−1) were within their respective 90% confidence intervals, indicating that overall model error was within acceptable limits.

Family environment, hobbies and habits as psychosocial predictors of survival for surgically treated patients with breast cancer.

PubMed

Tominaga, K; Andow, J; Koyama, Y; Numao, S; Kurokawa, E; Ojima, M; Nagai, M

1998-01-01

Many psychosocial factors have been reported to influence the duration of survival of breast cancer patients. We have studied how family members, hobbies and habits of the patients may alter their psychosocial status. Female patients with surgically treated breast cancer diagnosed between 1986 and 1995 at the Tochigi Cancer Center Hospital, who provided information on the above-mentioned factors, were used. Their subsequent physical status was followed up in the outpatients clinic. The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between the results of the factors examined and the duration of the patients' survival, adjusting for the patients' age, stage of disease at diagnosis and curability, as judged by the physician in charge after the treatment. The following factors were revealed to be significant with regard to the survival of surgically treated breast cancer patients: being a widow (hazard ratio 3.29; 95% confidence interval 1.32-8.20), having a hobby (hazard ratio 0.43; 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.82), number of hobbies (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.41-1.00), number of female children (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.42-0.98), smoker (hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval 1.02-4.26) and alcohol consumption (hazard ratio 0.10; 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.72). These results suggest that psychosocial factors, including the family environment, where patients receive emotional support from their spouse and children, hobbies and the patients' habits, may influence the duration of survival in surgically treated breast cancer patients.

An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick Charles

1985-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

Transverse micro-erosion meter measurements; determining minimum sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenhaile, Alan S.; Lakhan, V. Chris

2011-11-01

Two transverse micro-erosion meter (TMEM) stations were installed in each of four rock slabs, a slate/shale, basalt, phyllite/schist, and sandstone. One station was sprayed each day with fresh water and the other with a synthetic sea water solution (salt water). To record changes in surface elevation (usually downwearing but with some swelling), 100 measurements (the pilot survey), the maximum for the TMEM used in this study, were made at each station in February 2010, and then at two-monthly intervals until February 2011. The data were normalized using Box-Cox transformations and analyzed to determine the minimum number of measurements needed to obtain station means that fall within a range of confidence limits of the population means, and the means of the pilot survey. The effect on the confidence limits of reducing an already small number of measurements (say 15 or less) is much greater than that of reducing a much larger number of measurements (say more than 50) by the same amount. There was a tendency for the number of measurements, for the same confidence limits, to increase with the rate of downwearing, although it was also dependent on whether the surface was treated with fresh or salt water. About 10 measurements often provided fairly reasonable estimates of rates of surface change but with fairly high percentage confidence intervals in slowly eroding rocks; however, many more measurements were generally needed to derive means within 10% of the population means. The results were tabulated and graphed to provide an indication of the approximate number of measurements required for given confidence limits, and the confidence limits that might be attained for a given number of measurements.

Taichi exercise for self-rated sleep quality in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Du, Shizheng; Dong, Jianshu; Zhang, Heng; Jin, Shengji; Xu, Guihua; Liu, Zengxia; Chen, Lixia; Yin, Haiyan; Sun, Zhiling

2015-01-01

Self-reported sleep disorders are common in older adults, resulting in serious consequences. Non-pharmacological measures are important complementary interventions, among which Taichi exercise is a popular alternative. Some experiments have been performed; however, the effect of Taichi exercise in improving sleep quality in older people has yet to be validated by systematic review. Using systematic review and meta-analysis, this study aimed to examine the efficacy of Taichi exercise in promoting self-reported sleep quality in older adults. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies. 4 English databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL, and 4 Chinese databases: CBMdisc, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang database were searched through December 2013. Two reviewers independently selected eligible trials, conducted critical appraisal of the methodological quality by using the quality appraisal criteria for randomized controlled studies recommended by Cochrane Handbook. A standardized data form was used to extract information. Meta-analysis was performed. Five randomized controlled studies met inclusion criteria. All suffered from some methodological flaws. The results of this study showed that Taichi has large beneficial effect on sleep quality in older people, as indicated by decreases in the global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score [standardized mean difference=-0.87, 95% confidence intervals (95% confidence interval) (-1.25, -0.49)], as well as its sub-domains of subjective sleep quality [standardized mean difference=-0.83, 95% confidence interval (-1.08, -0.57)], sleep latency [standardized mean difference=-0.75, 95% confidence interval (-1.42, -0.07)], sleep duration [standardized mean difference=-0.55, 95% confidence interval (-0.90, -0.21)], habitual sleep efficiency [standardized mean difference=-0.49, 95% confidence interval (-0.74, -0.23)], sleep disturbance [standardized mean difference=-0.44, 95% confidence interval (-0.69, -0.19)], and daytime dysfunction [standardized mean difference=-0.34, 95% confidence interval (-0.59, -0.09)]. Daytime sleepiness improvement was also observed. Weak evidence shows that Taichi exercise has a beneficial effect in improving self-rated sleep quality for older adults, suggesting that Taichi could be an effective alternative and complementary approach to existing therapies for older people with sleep problems. More rigorous experimental studies are required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Previous treatment, sputum-smear nonconversion, and suburban living: The risk factors of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysians.

PubMed

Mohd Shariff, Noorsuzana; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Kamaludin, Fadzilah

2016-03-01

The number of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients is increasing each year in many countries all around the globe. Malaysia has no exception in facing this burdensome health problem. We aimed to investigate the factors that contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysian tuberculosis patients. An unmatched case-control study was conducted among tuberculosis patients who received antituberculosis treatments from April 2013 until April 2014. Cases are those diagnosed as pulmonary tuberculosis patients clinically, radiologically, and/or bacteriologically, and who were confirmed to be resistant to both isoniazid and rifampicin through drug-sensitivity testing. On the other hand, pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were sensitive to all first-line antituberculosis drugs and were treated during the same time period served as controls. A total of 150 tuberculosis patients were studied, of which the susceptible cases were 120. Factors found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis are being Indian or Chinese (odds ratio 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.04-9.68; and odds ratio 6.23, 95% confidence interval 2.24-17.35, respectively), unmarried (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.09-6.09), living in suburban areas (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.08-6.19), are noncompliant (odds ratio 4.50, 95% confidence interval 1.71-11.82), were treated previously (odds ratio 8.91, 95% confidence interval 3.66-21.67), and showed positive sputum smears at the 2nd (odds ratio 7.00, 95% confidence interval 2.46-19.89) and 6th months of treatment (odds ratio 17.96, 95% confidence interval 3.51-91.99). Living in suburban areas, positive sputum smears in the 2nd month of treatment, and was treated previously are factors that independently contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Those with positive smears in the second month of treatment, have a history of previous treatment, and live in suburban areas are found to have a higher probability of becoming multidrug resistant. The results presented here may facilitate improvements in the screening and detection process of drug-resistant patients in Malaysia in the future. Copyright © 2015 Asian-African Society for Mycobacteriology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Should Security Researchers Experiment More and Draw More Inferences?

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

knowledge would be enormous. To obtain a large and representative sample of keystroke-dynamics research papers, we consulted the IEEE Xplore database... IEEE Xplore are similar to those published elsewhere), these confidence intervals estimate the re- gions where those true percentages would lie with 95...of articles and conference pro- ceedings published by the IEEE , to which our university maintains a subscription. We conducted two keyword searches for

Optimal experimental design for improving the estimation of growth parameters of Lactobacillus viridescens from data under non-isothermal conditions.

PubMed

Longhi, Daniel Angelo; Martins, Wiaslan Figueiredo; da Silva, Nathália Buss; Carciofi, Bruno Augusto Mattar; de Aragão, Gláucia Maria Falcão; Laurindo, João Borges

2017-01-02

In predictive microbiology, the model parameters have been estimated using the sequential two-step modeling (TSM) approach, in which primary models are fitted to the microbial growth data, and then secondary models are fitted to the primary model parameters to represent their dependence with the environmental variables (e.g., temperature). The Optimal Experimental Design (OED) approach allows reducing the experimental workload and costs, and the improvement of model identifiability because primary and secondary models are fitted simultaneously from non-isothermal data. Lactobacillus viridescens was selected to this study because it is a lactic acid bacterium of great interest to meat products preservation. The objectives of this study were to estimate the growth parameters of L. viridescens in culture medium from TSM and OED approaches and to evaluate both the number of experimental data and the time needed in each approach and the confidence intervals of the model parameters. Experimental data for estimating the model parameters with TSM approach were obtained at six temperatures (total experimental time of 3540h and 196 experimental data of microbial growth). Data for OED approach were obtained from four optimal non-isothermal profiles (total experimental time of 588h and 60 experimental data of microbial growth), two profiles with increasing temperatures (IT) and two with decreasing temperatures (DT). The Baranyi and Roberts primary model and the square root secondary model were used to describe the microbial growth, in which the parameters b and T min (±95% confidence interval) were estimated from the experimental data. The parameters obtained from TSM approach were b=0.0290 (±0.0020) [1/(h 0.5 °C)] and T min =-1.33 (±1.26) [°C], with R 2 =0.986 and RMSE=0.581, and the parameters obtained with the OED approach were b=0.0316 (±0.0013) [1/(h 0.5 °C)] and T min =-0.24 (±0.55) [°C], with R 2 =0.990 and RMSE=0.436. The parameters obtained from OED approach presented smaller confidence intervals and best statistical indexes than those from TSM approach. Besides, less experimental data and time were needed to estimate the model parameters with OED than TSM. Furthermore, the OED model parameters were validated with non-isothermal experimental data with great accuracy. In this way, OED approach is feasible and is a very useful tool to improve the prediction of microbial growth under non-isothermal condition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Consumer Choice Between Hospital-Based and Freestanding Facilities for Arthroscopy: Impact on Prices, Spending, and Surgical Complications.

PubMed

Robinson, James C; Brown, Timothy T; Whaley, Christopher; Bozic, Kevin J

2015-09-16

Hospital-based outpatient departments traditionally charge higher prices for ambulatory procedures, compared with freestanding surgery centers. Under emerging reference-based benefit designs, insurers establish a contribution limit that they will pay, requiring the patient to pay the difference between that contribution limit and the actual price charged by the facility. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical outcomes for orthopaedic procedures performed at ambulatory surgery centers. We obtained data on 3962 patients covered by the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) who underwent arthroscopy of the knee or shoulder in the three years prior to the implementation of reference-based benefits in January 2012 and on 2505 patients covered by CalPERS who underwent arthroscopy in the two years after implementation. Control group data were obtained on 57,791 patients who underwent arthroscopy and were not subject to reference-based benefits. The impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices between hospital-based and freestanding facilities, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical complications was assessed with use of difference-in-differences multivariable regressions to adjust for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geographic location. By the second year of the program, the shift to reference-based benefits was associated with an increase in the utilization of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers by 14.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 8.1 to 20.5 percentage points) for knee arthroscopy and by 9.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 16.7 percentage points) for shoulder arthroscopy and a corresponding decrease in the use of hospital-based facilities. The mean price paid by CalPERS fell by 17.6% (95% confidence interval, -24.9% to -9.6%) for knee procedures and by 17.0% (95% confidence interval, -29.3% to -2.5%) for shoulder procedures. The shift to reference-based benefits was not associated with a change in the rate of surgical complications. In the first two years after the implementation of reference-based benefits, CalPERS saved $2.3 million (13%) on these two orthopaedic procedures. Reference-based benefits increase consumer sensitivity to price differences between freestanding and hospital-based surgical facilities. This study shows that the implementation of reference-based benefits does not result in a significant increase in measured complication rates for those subject to reference-based benefits. Copyright © 2015 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Consumer Choice Between Hospital-Based and Freestanding Facilities for Arthroscopy

PubMed Central

Robinson, James C.; Brown, Timothy T.; Whaley, Christopher; Bozic, Kevin J.

2015-01-01

Background: Hospital-based outpatient departments traditionally charge higher prices for ambulatory procedures, compared with freestanding surgery centers. Under emerging reference-based benefit designs, insurers establish a contribution limit that they will pay, requiring the patient to pay the difference between that contribution limit and the actual price charged by the facility. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical outcomes for orthopaedic procedures performed at ambulatory surgery centers. Methods: We obtained data on 3962 patients covered by the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) who underwent arthroscopy of the knee or shoulder in the three years prior to the implementation of reference-based benefits in January 2012 and on 2505 patients covered by CalPERS who underwent arthroscopy in the two years after implementation. Control group data were obtained on 57,791 patients who underwent arthroscopy and were not subject to reference-based benefits. The impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices between hospital-based and freestanding facilities, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical complications was assessed with use of difference-in-differences multivariable regressions to adjust for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geographic location. Results: By the second year of the program, the shift to reference-based benefits was associated with an increase in the utilization of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers by 14.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 8.1 to 20.5 percentage points) for knee arthroscopy and by 9.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 16.7 percentage points) for shoulder arthroscopy and a corresponding decrease in the use of hospital-based facilities. The mean price paid by CalPERS fell by 17.6% (95% confidence interval, −24.9% to −9.6%) for knee procedures and by 17.0% (95% confidence interval, −29.3% to −2.5%) for shoulder procedures. The shift to reference-based benefits was not associated with a change in the rate of surgical complications. In the first two years after the implementation of reference-based benefits, CalPERS saved $2.3 million (13%) on these two orthopaedic procedures. Conclusions: Reference-based benefits increase consumer sensitivity to price differences between freestanding and hospital-based surgical facilities. Clinical Relevance: This study shows that the implementation of reference-based benefits does not result in a significant increase in measured complication rates for those subject to reference-based benefits. PMID:26378263

Burden of Dengue Infection and Disease in a Pediatric Cohort in Urban Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

Tissera, Hasitha; Amarasinghe, Ananda; De Silva, Aruna Dharshan; Kariyawasam, Pradeep; Corbett, Kizzmekia S.; Katzelnick, Leah; Tam, Clarence; Letson, G. William; Margolis, Harold S.; de Silva, Aravinda M.

2014-01-01

Dengue is the most significant arthropod-borne viral infection of humans. Persons infected with dengue viruses (DENV) have subclinical or clinically apparent infections ranging from undifferentiated fever to dengue hemorrhagic fever/shock syndrome. Although recent studies estimated that the Indian subcontinent has the greatest burden of DENV infection and disease worldwide, we do not have reliable, population-based estimates of the incidence of infection and disease in this region. The goal of this study was to follow-up a cohort of 800 children living in a heavily urbanized area of Colombo, Sri Lanka to obtain accurate estimates of the incidence of DENV infection and disease. Annual blood samples were obtained from all children to estimate dengue seroprevalence at enrollment and to identify children exposed to new DENV infections during the study year. Blood was also obtained from any child in whom fever developed over the course of the study year to identify clinically apparent DENV infections. At enrollment, dengue seroprevalence was 53.07%, which indicated high transmission in this population. Over the study year, the incidence of DENV infection and disease were 8.39 (95% confidence interval = 6.56–10.53) and 3.38 (95% confidence interval = 2.24–4.88), respectively, per 100 children per year. The ratio of clinically inapparent to apparent infections was 1.48. These results will be useful for obtaining more accurate estimates of the burden of dengue in the region and for making decisions about testing and introduction of vaccines. PMID:24865684

Etiological classifications of transient ischemic attacks: subtype classification by TOAST, CCS and ASCO--a pilot study.

PubMed

Amort, Margareth; Fluri, Felix; Weisskopf, Florian; Gensicke, Henrik; Bonati, Leo H; Lyrer, Philippe A; Engelter, Stefan T

2012-01-01

In patients with transient ischemic attacks (TIA), etiological classification systems are not well studied. The Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST), the Causative Classification System (CCS), and the Atherosclerosis Small Vessel Disease Cardiac Source Other Cause (ASCO) classification may be useful to determine the underlying etiology. We aimed at testing the feasibility of each of the 3 systems. Furthermore, we studied and compared their prognostic usefulness. In a single-center TIA registry prospectively ascertained over 2 years, we applied 3 etiological classification systems. We compared the distribution of underlying etiologies, the rates of patients with determined versus undetermined etiology, and studied whether etiological subtyping distinguished TIA patients with versus without subsequent stroke or TIA within 3 months. The 3 systems were applicable in all 248 patients. A determined etiology with the highest level of causality was assigned similarly often with TOAST (35.9%), CCS (34.3%), and ASCO (38.7%). However, the frequency of undetermined causes differed significantly between the classification systems and was lowest for ASCO (TOAST: 46.4%; CCS: 37.5%; ASCO: 18.5%; p < 0.001). In TOAST, CCS, and ASCO, cardioembolism (19.4/14.5/18.5%) was the most common etiology, followed by atherosclerosis (11.7/12.9/14.5%). At 3 months, 33 patients (13.3%, 95% confidence interval 9.3-18.2%) had recurrent cerebral ischemic events. These were strokes in 13 patients (5.2%; 95% confidence interval 2.8-8.8%) and TIAs in 20 patients (8.1%, 95% confidence interval 5.0-12.2%). Patients with a determined etiology (high level of causality) had higher rates of subsequent strokes than those without a determined etiology [TOAST: 6.7% (95% confidence interval 2.5-14.1%) vs. 4.4% (95% confidence interval 1.8-8.9%); CSS: 9.3% (95% confidence interval 4.1-17.5%) vs. 3.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0-7.1%); ASCO: 9.4% (95% confidence interval 4.4-17.1%) vs. 2.6% (95% confidence interval 0.7-6.6%)]. However, this difference was only significant in the ASCO classification (p = 0.036). Using ASCO, there was neither an increase in risk of subsequent stroke among patients with incomplete diagnostic workup (at least one subtype scored 9) compared with patients with adequate workup (no subtype scored 9), nor among patients with multiple causes compared with patients with a single cause. In TIA patients, all etiological classification systems provided a similar distribution of underlying etiologies. The increase in stroke risk in TIA patients with determined versus undetermined etiology was most evident using the ASCO classification. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

1993-06-01

This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

Induction of labor before 40 weeks is associated with lower rate of cesarean delivery in women with gestational diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Melamed, Nir; Ray, Joel G; Geary, Michael; Bedard, Daniel; Yang, Cathy; Sprague, Ann; Murray-Davis, Beth; Barrett, Jon; Berger, Howard

2016-03-01

In women with gestational diabetes mellitus, it is not clear whether routine induction of labor at <40 weeks of gestation is beneficial to mother and newborn infant. The purpose of this study was to compare outcomes among women with gestational diabetes mellitus who had induction of labor at either 38 or 39 weeks with those whose pregnancy was managed expectantly. We included all women in Ontario, Canada, with diagnosed gestational diabetes mellitus who had a singleton hospital birth at ≥38 + 0 weeks of gestation between April 2012 and March 2014. Data were obtained from the Better Outcomes Registry & Network Ontario, which is a province-wide registry of all births in Ontario, Canada. Women who underwent induction of labor at 38 + 0 to 38 + 6 weeks of gestation (38-IOL; n = 1188) were compared with those who remained undelivered until 39 + 0 weeks of gestation (38-Expectant; n = 5229). Separately, those women who underwent induction of labor at 39 + 0 to 39 + 6 weeks of gestation (39-IOL; n = 1036) were compared with women who remained undelivered until 40 + 0 weeks of gestation (39-Expectant; n = 2162). Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were adjusted for maternal age, parity, insulin treatment, and prepregnancy body mass index. Of 281,480 women who gave birth during the study period, 14,600 women (5.2%) had gestational diabetes mellitus; of these, 8392 women (57.5%) met all inclusion criteria. Compared with the 38-Expectant group, those women in the 38-IOL group had lower odds for cesarean delivery (adjusted odds ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.90), higher odds for neonatal intensive care unit admission (adjusted odds ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.69), and no difference in other maternal-newborn infant outcomes. Compared with the 39-Expectant group, women in the 39-IOL group likewise had lower odds for cesarean delivery (adjusted odds ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.93) but no difference in neonatal intensive care unit admission (adjusted odds ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.11). In women with gestational diabetes mellitus, the routine induction of labor at 38 or 39 weeks is associated with a lower risk of cesarean delivery compared with expectant management but may increase the risk of neonatal intensive care unit admission when done at <39 weeks of gestation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fasting glucose levels, incident diabetes, subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in apparently healthy adults: A 12-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Sitnik, Debora; Santos, Itamar S; Goulart, Alessandra C; Staniak, Henrique L; Manson, JoAnn E; Lotufo, Paulo A; Bensenor, Isabela M

2016-11-01

We aimed to study the association between fasting plasma glucose, diabetes incidence and cardiovascular burden after 10-12 years. We evaluated diabetes and cardiovascular events incidences, carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium scores in ELSA-Brasil (the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health) baseline (2008-2010) of 1536 adults without diabetes in 1998. We used regression models to estimate association with carotid intima-media thickness (in mm), coronary artery calcium scores (in Agatston points) and cardiovascular events according to fasting plasma glucose in 1998. Adjusted diabetes incidence rate was 9.8/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval: 7.7-13.6/1000 person-years). Incident diabetes was positively associated with higher fasting plasma glucose. Fasting plasma glucose levels 110-125 mg/dL were associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.028; 95% confidence interval: 0.003-0.053). Excluding those with incident diabetes, there was a borderline association between higher carotid intima-media thickness and fasting plasma glucose 110-125 mg/dL (β = 0.030; 95% confidence interval: -0.005 to 0.065). Incident diabetes was associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.034; 95% confidence interval: 0.015-0.053), coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 (odds ratio = 2.84; 95% confidence interval: 1.17-6.91) and the combined outcome of a coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 or incident cardiovascular event (odds ratio = 3.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-7.65). In conclusion, fasting plasma glucose in 1998 and incident diabetes were associated with higher cardiovascular burden. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of infections among residents of Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Choy, C Sm; Chen, H; Yau, C Sw; Hsu, E K; Chik, N Y; Wong, A Ty

2016-08-01

A point prevalence study was conducted to study the epidemiology of common infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong and their associated factors. Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong were selected by stratified single-stage cluster random sampling. All residents aged 65 years or above from the recruited homes were surveyed. Infections were identified using standardised definitions. Demographic and health information-including medical history, immunisation record, antibiotic use, and activities of daily living (as measured by Barthel Index)-was collected by a survey team to determine any associated factors. Data were collected from 3857 residents in 46 Residential Care Homes for the Elderly from February to May 2014. A total of 105 residents had at least one type of infection based on the survey definition. The overall prevalence of all infections was 2.7% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-3.4%). The three most common infections were of the respiratory tract (1.3%; 95% confidence interval, 0.9%-1.9%), skin and soft tissue (0.7%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5%-1.0%), and urinary tract (0.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-0.9%). Total dependence in activities of daily living, as indicated by low Barthel Index score of 0 to 20 (odds ratio=3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.2), and presence of a wound or stoma (odds ratio=2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.9) were significantly associated with presence of infection. This survey provides information about infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in the territory. Local data enable us to understand the burden of infections and formulate targeted measures for prevention.

Influence of Objective Three-Dimensional Measures and Movement Images on Surgeon Treatment Planning for Lip Revision Surgery

PubMed Central

Trotman, Carroll-Ann; Phillips, Ceib; Faraway, Julian J.; Hartman, Terry; van Aalst, John A.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine whether a systematic evaluation of facial soft tissues of patients with cleft lip and palate, using facial video images and objective three-dimensional measurements of movement, change surgeons’ treatment plans for lip revision surgery. Design Prospective longitudinal study. Setting The University of North Carolina School of Dentistry. Patients, Participants A group of patients with repaired cleft lip and palate (n = 21), a noncleft control group (n = 37), and surgeons experienced in cleft care. Interventions Lip revision. Main Outcome Measures (1) facial photographic images; (2) facial video images during animations; (3) objective three-dimensional measurements of upper lip movement based on z scores; and (4) objective dynamic and visual three-dimensional measurement of facial soft tissue movement. Results With the use of the video images plus objective three-dimensional measures, changes were made to the problem list of the surgical treatment plan for 86% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.97) and the surgical goals for 71% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.48 to 0.89). The surgeon group varied in the percentage of patients for whom the problem list was modified, ranging from 24% (95% confidence interval, 8% to 47%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients, and the percentage for whom the surgical goals were modified, ranging from 14% (94% confidence interval, 3% to 36%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients. Conclusions For all surgeons, the additional assessment components of the systematic valuation resulted in a change in clinical decision making for some patients. PMID:23855676

Lower hospital mortality and complications after pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Bratton, Susan L; Van Duker, Heather; Statler, Kimberly D; Pulsipher, Michael A; McArthur, Jennifer; Keenan, Heather T

2008-03-01

To assess protective and risk factors for mortality among pediatric patients during initial care after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and to evaluate changes in hospital mortality. Retrospective cohort using the 1997, 2000, and 2003 Kids Inpatient Database, a probabilistic sample of children hospitalized in the United States with a procedure code for HSCT. Hospitalized patients in the United States submitted to the database. Age, <19 yrs. None. Hospital mortality significantly decreased from 12% in 1997 to 6% in 2003. Source of stem cells changed with increased use of cord blood. Rates of sepsis, graft versus host disease, and mechanical ventilation significantly decreased. Compared with autologous HSCT, patients who received an allogenic HSCT without T-cell depletion were more likely to die (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.5, 3.9), while children who received cord blood HSCT were at the greatest risk of hospital death (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.6, 9.1). Mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio, 26.32; 95% confidence interval, 16.3-42.2), dialysis (adjusted odds ratio, 12.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.7-35.4), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-6.1) were all independently associated with death, while care in 2003 was associated with decreased risk (adjusted odds ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.7) of death. Hospital mortality after HSCT in children decreased over time as did complications including need for mechanical ventilation, graft versus host disease, and sepsis. Prevention of complications is essential as the need for invasive support continues to be associated with high mortality risk.

High prevalence of refractive errors in a rural population: 'Nooravaran Salamat' Mobile Eye Clinic experience.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Rezvan, Farhad; Ostadimoghaddam, Hadi; Abdollahi, Majid; Hashemi, Maryam; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi

2013-01-01

The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia and determinants were determined in a rural population of Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Using random cluster sampling, 13 of the 83 villages of Khaf County in the north east of Iran were selected. Data from 2001 people over the age of 15 years were analysed. Visual acuity measurement, non-cycloplegic refraction and eye examinations were done at the Mobile Eye Clinic. The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia based on spherical equivalent worse than -0.5 dioptre and +0.5 dioptre, respectively. The prevalence of myopia, hyperopia and anisometropia in the total study sample was 28% (95% confidence interval: 25.9-30.2), 19.2% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-21.1), and 11.5% (95% confidence interval: 10.0-13.1), respectively. In the over 40 population, the prevalence of myopia and hyperopia was 32.5% (95% confidence interval: 28.9-36.1) and 27.9% (95% confidence interval: 24.5-31.3), respectively. In the multiple regression model for this group, myopia strongly correlated with cataract (odds ratio = 1.98 and 95% confidence interval: 1.33-2.93), and hyperopia only correlated with age (P < 0.001). The prevalence of high myopia and high hyperopia was 1.5% and 4.6%. In the multiple regression model, anisometropia significantly correlated with age (odds ratio = 1.04) and cataract (odds ratio = 5.2) (P < 0.001). The prevalence of myopia and anisometropia was higher than that in previous studies in urban population of Iran, especially in the elderly. Cataract was the only variable that correlated with myopia and anisometropia. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The Association Between Maternal Age and Cerebral Palsy Risk Factors.

PubMed

Schneider, Rilla E; Ng, Pamela; Zhang, Xun; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael I; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-05-01

Advanced maternal age is associated with higher frequencies of antenatal and perinatal conditions, as well as a higher risk of cerebral palsy in offspring. We explore the association between maternal age and specific cerebral palsy risk factors. Data were extracted from the Canadian Cerebral Palsy Registry. Maternal age was categorized as ≥35 years of age and less than 20 years of age at the time of birth. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to calculate odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. The final sample consisted of 1391 children with cerebral palsy, with 19% of children having mothers aged 35 or older and 4% of children having mothers below the age of 20. Univariate analyses showed that mothers aged 35 or older were more likely to have gestational diabetes (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.8), to have a history of miscarriage (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.4), to have undergone fertility treatments (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.9), and to have delivered by Caesarean section (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 2.2). These findings were supported by multivariate analyses. Children with mothers below the age of 20 were more likely to have a congenital malformation (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.2), which is also supported by multivariate analysis. The risk factor profiles of children with cerebral palsy vary by maternal age. Future studies are warranted to further our understanding of the compound causal pathways leading to cerebral palsy and the observed greater prevalence of cerebral palsy with increasing maternal age. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Priorities for treatment, care and information if faced with serious illness: a comparative population-based survey in seven European countries.

PubMed

Higginson, Irene J; Gomes, Barbara; Calanzani, Natalia; Gao, Wei; Bausewein, Claudia; Daveson, Barbara A; Deliens, Luc; Ferreira, Pedro L; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Simon, Steffen T; Cohen, Joachim; Harding, Richard

2014-02-01

Health-care costs are growing, with little population-based data about people's priorities for end-of-life care, to guide service development and aid discussions. We examined variations in people's priorities for treatment, care and information across seven European countries. Telephone survey of a random sample of households; we asked respondents their priorities if 'faced with a serious illness, like cancer, with limited time to live' and used multivariable logistic regressions to identify associated factors. Members of the general public aged ≥ 16 years residing in England, Flanders, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In total, 9344 individuals were interviewed. Most people chose 'improve quality of life for the time they had left', ranging from 57% (95% confidence interval: 55%-60%, Italy) to 81% (95% confidence interval: 79%-83%, Spain). Only 2% (95% confidence interval: 1%-3%, England) to 6% (95% confidence interval: 4%-7%, Flanders) said extending life was most important, and 15% (95% confidence interval: 13%-17%, Spain) to 40% (95% confidence interval: 37%-43%, Italy) said quality and extension were equally important. Prioritising quality of life was associated with higher education in all countries (odds ratio = 1.3 (Flanders) to 7.9 (Italy)), experience of caregiving or bereavement (England, Germany, Portugal), prioritising pain/symptom control over having a positive attitude and preferring death in a hospice/palliative care unit. Those prioritising extending life had the highest home death preference of all groups. Health status did not affect priorities. Across all countries, extending life was prioritised by a minority, regardless of health status. Treatment and care needs to be reoriented with patient education and palliative care becoming mainstream for serious conditions such as cancer.

Air pollution attributable postneonatal infant mortality in U.S. metropolitan areas: a risk assessment study

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Reinhard; Romieu, Isabelle; Medina, Sylvia; Schwartz, Joel; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino

2004-01-01

Background The impact of outdoor air pollution on infant mortality has not been quantified. Methods Based on exposure-response functions from a U.S. cohort study, we assessed the attributable risk of postneonatal infant mortality in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas related to particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10) as a surrogate of total air pollution. Results The estimated proportion of all cause mortality, sudden infant death syndrome (normal birth weight infants only) and respiratory disease mortality (normal birth weight) attributable to PM10 above a chosen reference value of 12.0 μg/m3 PM10 was 6% (95% confidence interval 3–11%), 16% (95% confidence interval 9–23%) and 24% (95% confidence interval 7–44%), respectively. The expected number of infant deaths per year in the selected areas was 106 (95% confidence interval 53–185), 79 (95% confidence interval 46–111) and 15 (95% confidence interval 5–27), respectively. Approximately 75% of cases were from areas where the current levels are at or below the new U.S. PM2.5 standard of 15 μg/m3 (equivalent to 25 μg/m3 PM10). In a country where infant mortality rates and air pollution levels are relatively low, ambient air pollution as measured by particulate matter contributes to a substantial fraction of infant death, especially for those due to sudden infant death syndrome and respiratory disease. Even if all counties would comply to the new PM2.5 standard, the majority of the estimated burden would remain. Conclusion Given the inherent limitations of risk assessments, further studies are needed to support and quantify the relationship between infant mortality and air pollution. PMID:15128459

Landslide susceptibility near highways is increased by one order of magnitude in the Andes of southern Ecuador, Loja province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenning, A.; Schwinn, M.; Ruiz-Páez, A. P.; Muenchow, J.

2014-03-01

Mountain roads in developing countries are known to increase landslide occurrence due to often inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading. This study empirically investigates landslide initiation frequency along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador across different climatic regimes. Generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM) were used to analyze the relationship between mapped landslide initiation points and distance to highway while accounting for topographic, climatic and geological predictors as possible confounders. A spatial block bootstrap was used to obtain non-parametric confidence intervals for the odds ratio of landslide occurrence near the highways (25 m distance) compared to a 200 m distance. The estimated odds ratio was 18-21 with lower 95% confidence bounds > 13 in all analyses. Spatial bootstrap estimation using the GAM supports the higher odds ratio estimate of 21.2 (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). The highway-related effects were observed to fade at about 150 m distance. Road effects appear to be enhanced in geological units characterized by Holocene gravels and Laramide andesite/basalt. Overall, landslide susceptibility was found to be more than one order of magnitude higher in close proximity to paved interurban highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador.

Landslide susceptibility near highways is increased by 1 order of magnitude in the Andes of southern Ecuador, Loja province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenning, A.; Schwinn, M.; Ruiz-Páez, A. P.; Muenchow, J.

2015-01-01

Mountain roads in developing countries are known to increase landslide occurrence due to often inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading. This study empirically investigates landslide initiation frequency along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador across different climatic regimes. Generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM) were used to analyze the relationship between mapped landslide initiation points and distance to highway while accounting for topographic, climatic, and geological predictors as possible confounders. A spatial block bootstrap was used to obtain nonparametric confidence intervals for the odds ratio of landslide occurrence near the highways (25 m distance) compared to a 200 m distance. The estimated odds ratio was 18-21, with lower 95% confidence bounds >13 in all analyses. Spatial bootstrap estimation using the GAM supports the higher odds ratio estimate of 21.2 (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). The highway-related effects were observed to fade at about 150 m distance. Road effects appear to be enhanced in geological units characterized by Holocene gravels and Laramide andesite/basalt. Overall, landslide susceptibility was found to be more than 1 order of magnitude higher in close proximity to paved interurban highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador.

Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

2012-01-01

Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

Teach a Confidence Interval for the Median in the First Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howington, Eric B.

2017-01-01

Few introductory statistics courses consider statistical inference for the median. This article argues in favour of adding a confidence interval for the median to the first statistics course. Several methods suitable for introductory statistics students are identified and briefly reviewed.

United States Air Force Graduate Student Summer Support Program 1986. Program Management Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

ng cond iaorns. -: i s ; L s : & i ;al Ii i t r-Lk...reliable technique for obtaining confidence intervals for the population correlation under most selection situations. 197 I . I I .. AN ANALYSIS .r...colIlected Over’ tie. Six analyses were evaiyaterd an ~d sc:me were tested fr effective u.se in :,rilire v-ea It i we aral i s . Recoririlendat i :.ris

Incidence of Mastitis in the Neonatal Period in a Traditional Breastfeeding Society: Results of a Cohort Study.

PubMed

Khanal, Vishnu; Scott, Jane A; Lee, Andy H; Binns, Colin W

2015-12-01

Mastitis is a painful problem experienced by breastfeeding women, especially in the first few weeks postpartum. There have been limited studies of the incidence of mastitis from traditionally breastfeeding societies in South Asia. This study investigated the incidence, determinants, and management of mastitis in the first month postpartum, as well as its association with breastfeeding outcomes at 4 and 6 months postpartum, in western Nepal. Subjects were a subsample of 338 mothers participating in a larger prospective cohort study conducted in 2014 in western Nepal. Mothers were interviewed during the first month postpartum and again at 4 and 6 months to obtain information on breastfeeding practices. The association of mastitis and determinant variables was investigated using multivariable logistic regression, and the association with breastfeeding duration was examined using Kaplan-Meier estimation. The incidence of mastitis was 8.0% (95% confidence interval, 5.1%, 10.8%) in the first month postpartum. Prelacteal feeding (adjusted odds ratio = 2.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.03, 7.40) and cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.09, 11.42) were associated with a higher likelihood of mastitis. Kaplan-Meier estimation showed no significant difference in the duration of exclusive breastfeeding among the mothers who experienced an episode of mastitis and those who did not. Roughly one in 10 (8.0%) women experienced mastitis in the first month postpartum, and there appeared to be little effect of mastitis on breastfeeding outcomes. Traditional breastfeeding practices should be encouraged, and the management of mastitis should be included as a part of lactation promotion.

The Skin Cancer Objective Structured Clinical Examination (SCOSCE): A multi-institutional collaboration to develop and validate a clinical skills assessment for melanoma.

PubMed

Garg, Amit; Biello, Katie; Hoot, Joyce W; Reddy, Shalini B; Wilson, Lindsay; George, Paul; Robinson-Bostom, Leslie; Belazarian, Leah; Domingues, Erik; Powers, Jennifer; Jacob, Reza; Powers, Michael; Besen, Justin; Geller, Alan C

2015-12-01

Assessing medical students on core skills related to melanoma detection is challenging in the absence of a well-developed instrument. We sought to develop an objective structured clinical examination for the detection and evaluation of melanoma among medical students. This was a prospective cohort analysis of student and objective rater agreement on performance of clinical skills and assessment of differences in performance across 3 schools. Kappa coefficients indicated excellent agreement for 3 of 5 core skills including commenting on the presence of the moulage (k = 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.77-0.96), obtaining a history for the moulage (k = 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.74-0.94), and making a clinical impression (k = 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.92). There were no differences in performance across schools with respect to 3 of 5 core skills: commenting on the presence of the moulage (P = .15), initiating a history (P = .53), and managing the suspicious lesion (P value range .07-.17). Overall, 54.2% and 44.7% of students commented on the presence of the moulage and achieved maximum performance of core skills, respectively, with no difference in performance across schools. Limitations include overall sample size of students and schools. The Skin Cancer Objective Structured Clinical Examination represents a potentially important instrument to measure students' performance on the optimal step-by-step evaluation of a melanoma. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Solitary Pure Ground-Glass Nodules 5 mm or Smaller: Frequency of Growth.

PubMed

Kakinuma, Ryutaro; Muramatsu, Yukio; Kusumoto, Masahiko; Tsuchida, Takaaki; Tsuta, Koji; Maeshima, Akiko Miyagi; Asamura, Hisao; Moriyama, Noriyuki

2015-09-01

To clarify the percentage of solitary pure ground-glass nodules (SPGGNs) 5 mm or smaller that grow and develop into invasive adenocarcinomas. This study was approved by the institutional review board, and informed consent was obtained from all people who were screened. From February 2004 through December 2007, 7294 participants underwent screening for lung cancer with computed tomographic (CT) imaging. The nodule database was reviewed to identify SPGGNs 5 mm or smaller. Growth of the SPGGNs was evaluated as of March 31, 2013. In cases of pathologic analysis-proven adenocarcinomas that developed from SPGGNs 5 mm or smaller, solid components were evaluated. Percentages, 95% confidence intervals, and means were calculated. At baseline screening, 438 SPGGNs 5 mm or smaller were identified, and during the study period one SPGGN 5 mm or smaller developed de novo. Of the 439 SPGGNs, 394 were stable and 45 (10.3% [95% confidence interval: 7.5%, 13.7%]), including newly developed SPGGN, grew. Of the 45 SPGGNs that grew, 0.9% (four of 439 [95% confidence interval: 0.3%, 2.3%]) developed into adenocarcinomas (two minimally invasive [including the newly developed SPGGN] and two invasive). The mean period between baseline CT screening and the appearance of solid components in the four adenocarcinomas was 3.6 years. Of SPGGNs 5 mm or smaller, approximately 10% will grow and 1% will develop into invasive adenocarcinomas or minimally invasive adenocarcinomas. SPGGNs 5 mm or smaller should be rescanned 3.5 years later to look for development of a solid component.

The effect of aromatherapy massage on the psychological symptoms of postmenopausal Iranian women.

PubMed

Taavoni, S; Darsareh, F; Joolaee, S; Haghani, H

2013-06-01

Menopausal symptoms experienced by women vary widely, and while many women transition through menopause with manageable symptoms, others experience severe symptoms, which may impair their quality of life. A randomized clinical trial was conducted to determine the effect of aromatherapy massage on psychological symptoms during menopause. The study population comprised 90 women. Each subject in the aromatherapy massage group received 30 min aromatherapy sessions with aroma oil, twice a week, for four weeks; each subject in the massage therapy group received the same treatment with odorless oil, while no treatment was provided to subjects in the control group. The outcome measures were psychological symptoms, as obtained through the psychological subscale of the Menopause Rating Scale. A total of 87 women were evaluated. A statistically significant difference was found between the participants' pre- and post-application psychological score in intervention groups, whereas the score in the control group did not differ significantly. Aromatherapy massage decreased the psychological score MD: -3.49 (95% Confidence Interval of Difference: -4.52 to -2.47). Massage therapy also decreased the psychological score MD: -1.20 (95% Confidence Interval of Difference: -2.19 to -0.08). To distinguish the effect of aromatherapy from massage separately, we compared the reduction in the psychological score. Aromatherapy massage decreased the psychological score more than massage therapy MD: -2.29 (95% Confidence Interval of Difference: -3.01 to -0.47). Both aromatherapy massage and massage were effective in reducing psychological symptoms, but, the effect of aromatherapy massage was higher than massage. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using known populations of pronghorn to evaluate sampling plans and estimators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kraft, K.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Samuelson, J.M.; Allen, S.H.

1995-01-01

Although sampling plans and estimators of abundance have good theoretical properties, their performance in real situations is rarely assessed because true population sizes are unknown. We evaluated widely used sampling plans and estimators of population size on 3 known clustered distributions of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). Our criteria were accuracy of the estimate, coverage of 95% confidence intervals, and cost. Sampling plans were combinations of sampling intensities (16, 33, and 50%), sample selection (simple random sampling without replacement, systematic sampling, and probability proportional to size sampling with replacement), and stratification. We paired sampling plans with suitable estimators (simple, ratio, and probability proportional to size). We used area of the sampling unit as the auxiliary variable for the ratio and probability proportional to size estimators. All estimators were nearly unbiased, but precision was generally low (overall mean coefficient of variation [CV] = 29). Coverage of 95% confidence intervals was only 89% because of the highly skewed distribution of the pronghorn counts and small sample sizes, especially with stratification. Stratification combined with accurate estimates of optimal stratum sample sizes increased precision, reducing the mean CV from 33 without stratification to 25 with stratification; costs increased 23%. Precise results (mean CV = 13) but poor confidence interval coverage (83%) were obtained with simple and ratio estimators when the allocation scheme included all sampling units in the stratum containing most pronghorn. Although areas of the sampling units varied, ratio estimators and probability proportional to size sampling did not increase precision, possibly because of the clumped distribution of pronghorn. Managers should be cautious in using sampling plans and estimators to estimate abundance of aggregated populations.

Interaction of soy food and tea consumption with CYP19A1 genetic polymorphisms in the development of endometrial cancer.

PubMed

Xu, Wang Hong; Dai, Qi; Xiang, Yong Bing; Long, Ji Rong; Ruan, Zhi Xian; Cheng, Jia Rong; Zheng, Wei; Shu, Xiao Ou

2007-12-15

Certain polyphenols inhibit the activity of aromatase, a critical enzyme in estrogen synthesis that is coded by the CYP19A1 gene. Consumption of polyphenol-rich foods and beverages, thus, may interact with CYP19A1 genetic polymorphisms in the development of endometrial cancer. The authors tested this hypothesis in the Shanghai Endometrial Cancer Study (1997-2003), a population-based case-control study of 1,204 endometrial cancer cases and 1,212 controls. Dietary information was obtained by use of a validated food frequency questionnaire. Genotypes of CYP19A1 at rs28566535, rs1065779, rs752760, rs700519, and rs1870050 were available for 1,042 cases and 1,035 controls. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals after adjustment for potential confounding factors. Higher intake of soy foods and tea consumption were both inversely associated with the risk of endometrial cancer, with odds ratios of 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 0.6, 1.0) for the highest versus the lowest tertiles of intake of soy and 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 06, 0.9) for ever tea consumption. The association of single nucleotide polymorphisms rs1065779, rs752760, and rs1870050 with endometrial cancer was modified by tea consumption (p(interaction) < 0.05) but not by soy isoflavone intake. The authors' findings suggest that tea polyphenols may modify the effect of CYP19A1 genetic polymorphisms on the development of endometrial cancer.

Lipid-Lowering Agents and High HDL (High-Density Lipoprotein) Are Inversely Associated With Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture.

PubMed

Can, Anil; Castro, Victor M; Dligach, Dmitriy; Finan, Sean; Yu, Sheng; Gainer, Vivian; Shadick, Nancy A; Savova, Guergana; Murphy, Shawn; Cai, Tianxi; Weiss, Scott T; Du, Rose

2018-05-01

Growing evidence from experimental animal models and clinical studies suggests the protective effect of statin use against rupture of intracranial aneurysms; however, results from large studies detailing the relationship between intracranial aneurysm rupture and total cholesterol, HDL (high-density lipoprotein), LDL (low-density lipoprotein), and lipid-lowering agent use are lacking. The medical records of 4701 patients with 6411 intracranial aneurysms diagnosed at the Massachusetts General Hospital and the Brigham and Women's Hospital between 1990 and 2016 were reviewed and analyzed. Patients were separated into ruptured and nonruptured groups. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the effects of lipids (total cholesterol, LDL, and HDL) and lipid-lowering medications on intracranial aneurysm rupture risk. Propensity score weighting was used to account for differences in baseline characteristics of the cohorts. Lipid-lowering agent use was significantly inversely associated with rupture status (odds ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.71). In a subgroup analysis of complete cases that includes both lipid-lowering agent use and lipid values, higher HDL levels (odds ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.93-0.98) and lipid-lowering agent use (odds ratio, 0.41; 95% confidence interval, 0.23-0.73) were both significantly and inversely associated with rupture status, whereas total cholesterol and LDL levels were not significant. A monotonic exposure-response curve between HDL levels and risk of aneurysmal rupture was obtained. Higher HDL values and the use of lipid-lowering agents are significantly inversely associated with ruptured intracranial aneurysms. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Obesity and Prostate Cancer Risk According to Tumor TMPRSS2:ERG Gene Fusion Status

PubMed Central

Egbers, Lieke; Luedeke, Manuel; Rinckleb, Antje; Kolb, Suzanne; Wright, Jonathan L.; Maier, Christiane; Neuhouser, Marian L.; Stanford, Janet L.

2015-01-01

The T2E gene fusion, formed by fusion of the transmembrane protease, serine 2, gene (TMPRSS2) with the erythroblast transformation-specific (ETS)-related gene (ERG), is found in approximately 50% of prostate cancers and may characterize distinct molecular subtypes of prostate cancer with different etiologies. We investigated the relationship between body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) and prostate cancer risk by T2E status. Study participants were residents of King County, Washington, recruited for 2 population-based case-control studies conducted in 1993–1996 and 2002–2005. Tumor T2E status was determined for 563 prostate cancer patients who underwent radical prostatectomy. Information on weight, height, and covariables was obtained through in-person interviews. We performed polytomous logistic regression to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for T2E-positive and -negative prostate cancer. Comparing the highest BMI quartile with the lowest, inverse associations were observed between recent (≥29.7 vs. <24.5: odds ratio = 0.66, 95% confidence interval: 0.45, 0.97) and maximum (≥31.8 vs. <25.9: odds ratio = 0.69, 95% confidence interval: 0.47, 1.02) BMI and the risk of T2E-positive prostate cancer. No significant associations were seen for men with T2E-negative tumors. This study provides evidence that obesity is specifically associated with reduced risk of developing androgen-responsive T2E fusion–positive tumors. The altered steroid hormone profile in obese men may contribute to this inverse association. PMID:25852077

Factors associated with patients' choice of physician in the Korean population: Database analyses of a tertiary hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Kidong; Ahn, Soyeon; Lee, Banghyun; Lee, Kibeom; Yoo, Sooyoung; Lee, Kyogu; Suh, Dong Hoon; No, Jae Hong; Kim, Yong Beom

2018-01-01

This study aimed to determine the factors influencing patients' choice of physician at the first visit through database analysis of a tertiary hospital in South Korea. We collected data on the first treatments performed by physicians who had treated patients for at least 3 consecutive years over 10 years (from 2003 to 2012) from the database of Seoul National University's affiliated tertiary hospital. Ultimately, we obtained data on 524,012 first treatments of 319,004 patients performed by 115 physicians. Variables including physicians' age and medical school and patients' age were evaluated as influencing factors for the number of first treatments performed by each physician in each year using a Poisson regression through generalized estimating equations with a log link. The number of first treatments decreased over the study period. Notably, the relative risk for first treatments was lower among older physicians than among younger physicians (relative risk 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.95 to 0.98). Physicians graduating from Seoul National University (SNU) also had a higher risk for performing first treatments than did those not from SNU (relative risk 1.58; 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 2.10). Finally, relative risk was also higher among older patients than among younger patients (relative risk 1.03; 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.04). This study systematically demonstrated that physicians' age, whether the physician graduated from the highest-quality university, and patients' age all related to patients' choice of physician at the first visit in a tertiary university hospital. These findings might be due to Korean cultural factors.

The Perceived Socioeconomic Status Is an Important Factor of Health Recovery for Victims of Occupational Accidents in Korea.

PubMed

Seok, Hongdeok; Yoon, Jin-Ha; Lee, Wanhyung; Lee, June-Hee; Jung, Pil Kyun; Roh, Jaehoon; Won, Jong-Uk

2016-02-01

We aimed to examine whether there is a correlation between the health recovery of industrial accident victims and their perceived socioeconomic status. Data were obtained from the first Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance, which included 2,000 participants. We performed multivariate regression analysis and determined the odds ratios for participants with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status and for those with a subjectively lower middle socioeconomic status using 95% confidence intervals. An additional multivariate regression analysis yielded the odds ratios for participants with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status and those with a subjectively upper middle socioeconomic class using 95% confidence intervals. Of all participants, 299 reported a full recovery, whereas 1,701 did not. We examined the odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) for participants' health recovery according to their subjective socioeconomic status while controlling for sex, age, education, tobacco use, alcohol use, subjective state of health prior to the accident, chronic disease, employment duration, recovery period, accident type, disability status, disability rating, and economic participation. The odds of recovery in participants with a subjectively lower middle socioeconomic status were 1.707 times greater (1.264-2.305) than that of those with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status. Similarly, the odds of recovery in participants with a subjectively upper middle socioeconomic status were 3.124 times greater (1.795-5.438) than that of those with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status. Our findings indicate that participants' perceived socioeconomic disparities extend to disparities in their health status. The reinforcement of welfare measures is greatly needed to temper these disparities.

Increased calcium supplementation is associated with morbidity and mortality in the infant postoperative cardiac patient.

PubMed

Dyke, Peter C; Yates, Andrew R; Cua, Clifford L; Hoffman, Timothy M; Hayes, John; Feltes, Timothy F; Springer, Michelle A; Taeed, Roozbeh

2007-05-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the association of calcium replacement therapy with morbidity and mortality in infants after cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass. Retrospective chart review. The cardiac intensive care unit at a tertiary care children's hospital. Infants undergoing cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass between October 2002 and August 2004. None. Total calcium replacement (mg/kg calcium chloride given) for the first 72 postoperative hours was measured. Morbidity and mortality data were collected. The total volume of blood products given during the first 72 hrs was recorded. Infants with confirmed chromosomal deletions at the 22q11 locus were noted. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were used to generate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, with p < .05 being significant. One hundred seventy-one infants met inclusion criteria. Age was 4 +/- 3 months and weight was 4.9 +/- 1.7 kg at surgery. Six infants had deletions of chromosome 22q11. Infants who weighed less required more calcium replacement (r = -.28, p < .001). Greater calcium replacement correlated with a longer intensive care unit length of stay (r = .27, p < .001) and a longer total hospital length of stay (r = .23, p = .002). Greater calcium replacement was significantly associated with morbidity (liver dysfunction [odds ratio, 3.9; confidence interval, 2.1-7.3; p < .001], central nervous system complication [odds ratio, 1.8; confidence interval, 1.1-3.0; p = .02], infection [odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 1.0-2.2; p < .04], extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [odds ratio, 5.0; confidence interval, 2.3-10.6; p < .001]) and mortality (odds ratio, 5.8; confidence interval, 5.8-5.9; p < .001). Greater calcium replacement was not associated with renal insufficiency (odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 0.9-2.3; p = .07). Infants with >1 sd above the mean of total calcium replacement received on average fewer blood products than the total study population. Greater calcium replacement is associated with increasing morbidity and mortality. Further investigation of the etiology and therapy of hypocalcemia in this population is warranted.

WITHDRAWN: Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G Justus

2009-01-21

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Reliability of clinical findings and magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae.

PubMed

Pihlajamäki, Harri K; Kuikka, Paavo-Ilari; Leppänen, Vesa-Veikko; Kiuru, Martti J; Mattila, Ville M

2010-04-01

This diagnostic study was performed to determine the correlation between anterior knee pain and chondromalacia patellae and to define the reliability of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae. Fifty-six young adults (median age, 19.5 years) with anterior knee pain had magnetic resonance imaging of the knee followed by arthroscopy. The patellar chondral lesions identified by magnetic resonance imaging were compared with the arthroscopic findings. Arthroscopy confirmed the presence of chondromalacia patellae in twenty-five (45%) of the fifty-six knees, a synovial plica in twenty-five knees, a meniscal tear in four knees, and a femorotibial chondral lesion in four knees; normal anatomy was seen in six knees. No association was found between the severity of the chondromalacia patellae seen at arthroscopy and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome (p = 0.83). The positive predictive value for the ability of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging to detect chondromalacia patellae was 75% (95% confidence interval, 53% to 89%), the negative predictive value was 72% (95% confidence interval, 56% to 84%), the sensitivity was 60% (95% confidence interval, 41% to 77%), the specificity was 84% (95% confidence interval, 67% to 93%), and the diagnostic accuracy was 73% (95% confidence interval, 60% to 83%). The sensitivity was 13% (95% confidence interval, 2% to 49%) for grade-I lesions and 83% (95% confidence interval, 59% to 94%) for grade-II, III, or IV lesions. Chondromalacia patellae cannot be diagnosed on the basis of symptoms or with current physical examination methods. The present study demonstrated no correlation between the severity of chondromalacia patellae and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome. Thus, symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome should not be used as an indication for knee arthroscopy. The sensitivity of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging was low for grade-I lesions but considerably higher for more severe (grade-II, III, or IV) lesions. Magnetic resonance imaging may be considered an accurate diagnostic tool for identification of more severe cases of chondromalacia patellae.

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis

PubMed Central

Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M.; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long–term prognostic value. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Results Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). Conclusions The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. PMID:27697781

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis.

PubMed

Verde, Eduardo; Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-12-07

Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long-term prognostic value. We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

PubMed Central

Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

Impact of a pilot pharmacy health-care professional out-of-school time physical activity and nutrition education program with exercise on fourth and fifth graders in a rural Texas community.

PubMed

Robles, Janie; Gutierrez, Ashley; Seifert, Charles F

2014-01-01

Childhood obesity continues to be a problem. Children in rural populations are more likely to be overweight or obese and a lack of resources in those areas may contribute to this problem. We aimed to assess the impact of a pilot pharmacy health-care professional out-of-school time vigorous physical activity and nutrition education program on fourth and fifth graders in a rural Texas community. We conducted a prospective 12-week cohort study from August to November 2012. Thirty-three children, aged 8-11 years, in Bailey County, Texas, were enrolled in the study. Body mass index, body mass index percentile, blood pressure, waist circumference, and a diet preferences and activities knowledge survey were obtained at 0, 4, 8, and 12 weeks. Study participants completed a twice weekly physical activity and nutrition education program with exercise over weeks 1-4 with no intervention during weeks 5-12. Thirty-one (94%) of the 33 children, predominately Hispanic girls, completed the program. Body mass index (-0.30 (95% confidence interval, -0.44 to -0.17); P = <0.0001), body mass index percentile (-2.75 (95% confidence interval, -4.89 to -0.62); P = 0.0026), systolic blood pressure (-1.9 (95% confidence interval, -2.9 to -0.9); P = <0.0001), and waist circumference (-0.47 (95% confidence interval, -0.85 to -0.10); P = <0.0001) mean change decreased between baseline and week 12 with no intervention for 8 weeks. Positive survey results at 3 months indicated a decrease in fried/sweet foods; increase in exercise; decreases in video games and computer use; and a change in knowledge regarding the selection of the most healthy food group servings per day. In this pharmacy health-care directed pilot study, participants had a reduction of body mass index, body mass index percentile, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, and improvement in certain survey results at the end of 12 weeks despite no further intervention after 4 weeks.

The Liverpool Care Pathway for cancer patients dying in hospital medical wards: a before-after cluster phase II trial of outcomes reported by family members.

PubMed

Costantini, Massimo; Pellegrini, Fabio; Di Leo, Silvia; Beccaro, Monica; Rossi, Carla; Flego, Guia; Romoli, Vittoria; Giannotti, Michela; Morone, Paola; Ivaldi, Giovanni P; Cavallo, Laura; Fusco, Flavio; Higginson, Irene J

2014-01-01

Hospital is the most common place of cancer death but concerns regarding the quality of end-of-life care remain. Preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of the Liverpool Care Pathway on the quality of end-of-life care provided to adult cancer patients during their last week of life in hospital. Uncontrolled before-after intervention cluster trial. The trial was performed within four hospital wards participating in the pilot implementation of the Italian version of the Liverpool Care Pathway programme. All cancer patients who died in the hospital wards 2-4 months before and after the implementation of the Italian version of Liverpool Care Pathway were identified. A total of 2 months after the patient's death, bereaved family members were interviewed using the Toolkit After-Death Family Interview (seven 0-100 scales assessing the quality of end-of-life care) and the Italian version of the Views of Informal Carers - Evaluation of Services (VOICES) (three items assessing pain, breathlessness and nausea-vomiting). An interview was obtained for 79 family members, 46 (73.0%) before and 33 (68.8%) after implementation of the Italian version of Liverpool Care Pathway. Following Italian version of Liverpool Care Pathway implementation, there was a significant improvement in the mean scores of four Toolkit scales: respect, kindness and dignity (+16.8; 95% confidence interval = 3.6-30.0; p = 0.015); family emotional support (+20.9; 95% confidence interval = 9.6-32.3; p < 0.001); family self-efficacy (+14.3; 95% confidence interval = 0.3-28.2; p = 0.049) and coordination of care (+14.3; 95% confidence interval = 4.2-24.3; p = 0.007). No significant improvement in symptom' control was observed. These results provide the first robust data collected from family members of a preliminary clinically significant improvement, in some aspects, of quality of care after the implementation of the Italian version of Liverpool Care Pathway programme. The poor effect for symptom control suggests areas for further innovation and development.

Recent age- and gender-specific trends in mortality during stroke hospitalization in the United States.

PubMed

Ovbiagele, Bruce; Markovic, Daniela; Towfighi, Amytis

2011-10-01

Advancements in diagnosis and treatment have resulted in better clinical outcomes after stroke; however, the influence of age and gender on recent trends in death during stroke hospitalization has not been specifically investigated. We assessed the impact of age and gender on nationwide patterns of in-hospital mortality after stroke. Data were obtained from all US states that contributed to the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. All patients admitted to hospitals between 1997 and 1998 (n=1 351 293) and 2005 and 2006 (n=1 202 449), with a discharge diagnosis of stroke (identified by the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision procedure codes), were included. Time trends for in-hospital mortality after stroke were evaluated by gender and age group based on 10-year age increments (<55, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, >84) using multivariable logistic regression. Between 1997 and 2006, in-hospital mortality rates decreased across time in all sub-groups (all P<0·01), except in men >84 years. In unadjusted analysis, men aged >84 years in 1997-1998 had poorer mortality outcomes than similarly aged women (odds ratio 0·93, 95% confidence interval=0·88-0·98). This disparity worsened by 2005-2006 (odds ratio 0·88, 95% confidence interval=0·84-0·93). After adjusting for confounders, compared with similarly aged women, the mortality outcomes among men aged >84 years were poorer in 1997-1998 (odds ratio 0·97, 95% confidence interval=0·92-1·02) and were poorer in 2005-2006 (odds ratio 0·92, 95% confidence interval=0·87-0·96), P=0·04, for gender × time trend. Over the last decade, in-hospital mortality rates after stroke in the United States have declined for every age/gender group, except men aged >84 years. Given the rapidly ageing US population, avenues for boosting in-hospital survival among very elderly men with stroke need to be explored. © 2011 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2011 World Stroke Organization.

Psychosocial and nonclinical factors predicting hospital utilization in patients of a chronic disease management program: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Tran, Mark W; Weiland, Tracey J; Phillips, Georgina A

2015-01-01

Psychosocial factors such as marital status (odds ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-8.69; P = .006) and nonclinical factors such as outpatient nonattendances (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.23; P = .013) and referrals made (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35; P = .003) predict hospital utilization for patients in a chronic disease management program. Along with optimizing patients' clinical condition by prescribed medical guidelines and supporting patient self-management, addressing psychosocial and nonclinical issues are important in attempting to avoid hospital utilization for people with chronic illnesses.

Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population…

Persistent opioid use following Cesarean delivery: patterns and predictors among opioid naïve women

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T.; Franklin, Jessica M.; Bykov, Katsiaryna; Avorn, Jerry; Shrank, William H.; Brennan, Troyen A.; Landon, Joan E.; Rathmell, James P.; Huybrechts, Krista F.; Fischer, Michael A.; Choudhry, Niteesh K.

2016-01-01

Background The incidence of opioid-related death in women has increased five-fold over the past decade. For many women, their initial opioid exposure will occur in the setting of routine medical care. Approximately 1 in 3 deliveries in the U.S. is by Cesarean and opioids are commonly prescribed for post-surgical pain management. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the risk that opioid naïve women prescribed opioids after Cesarean delivery will subsequently become consistent prescription opioid users in the year following delivery, and to identify predictors for this behavior. Study Design We identified women in a database of commercial insurance beneficiaries who underwent Cesarean delivery and who were opioid-naïve in the year prior to delivery. To identify persistent users of opioids, we used trajectory models, which group together patients with similar patterns of medication filling during follow-up, based on patterns of opioid dispensing in the year following Cesarean delivery. We then constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for membership in the persistent user group. Results 285 of 80,127 (0.36%, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.40), opioid-naïve women became persistent opioid users (identified using trajectory models based on monthly patterns of opioid dispensing) following Cesarean delivery. Demographics and baseline comorbidity predicted such use with moderate discrimination (c statistic = 0.73). Significant predictors included a history of cocaine abuse (risk 7.41%; adjusted odds ratio 6.11, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 36.31) and other illicit substance abuse (2.36%; adjusted odds ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 6.91), tobacco use (1.45%; adjusted odds ratio 3.04, 95% confidence interval 2.03 to 4.55), back pain (0.69%; adjusted odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.29), migraines (0.91%; adjusted odds ratio 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 2.90), antidepressant use (1.34%; adjusted odds ratio 3.19, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 4.23) and benzodiazepine use (1.99%; adjusted odds ratio 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.64 to 5.26) in the year prior to Cesarean delivery. Conclusions A very small proportion of opioid-naïve women (approximately 1 in 300) become persistent prescription opioid users following Cesarean delivery. Pre-existing psychiatric comorbidity, certain pain conditions, and substance use/abuse conditions identifiable at the time of initial opioid prescribing were predictors of persistent use. PMID:26996986

Emergency department patient satisfaction survey in Imam Reza Hospital, Tabriz, Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Patient satisfaction is an important indicator of the quality of care and service delivery in the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to evaluate patient satisfaction with the Emergency Department of Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz, Iran. Methods This study was carried out for 1 week during all shifts. Trained researchers used the standard Press Ganey questionnaire. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire prior to discharge. The study questionnaire included 30 questions based on a Likert scale. Descriptive and analytical statistics were used throughout data analysis in a number of ways using SPSS version 13. Results Five hundred patients who attended our ED were included in this study. The highest satisfaction rates were observed in the terms of physicians' communication with patients (82.5%), security guards' courtesy (78.3%) and nurses' communication with patients (78%). The average waiting time for the first visit to a physician was 24 min 15 s. The overall satisfaction rate was dependent on the mean waiting time. The mean waiting time for a low rate of satisfaction was 47 min 11 s with a confidence interval of (19.31, 74.51), and for very good level of satisfaction it was 14 min 57 s with a (10.58, 18.57) confidence interval. Approximately 63% of the patients rated their general satisfaction with the emergency setting as good or very good. On the whole, the patient satisfaction rate at the lowest level was 7.7 with a confidence interval of (5.1, 10.4), and at the low level it was 5.8% with a confidence interval of (3.7, 7.9). The rate of satisfaction for the mediocre level was 23.3 with a confidence interval of (19.1, 27.5); for the high level of satisfaction it was 28.3 with a confidence interval of (22.9, 32.8), and for the very high level of satisfaction, this rate was 32.9% with a confidence interval of (28.4, 37.4). Conclusion The study findings indicated the need for evidence-based interventions in emergency care services in areas such as medical care, nursing care, courtesy of staff, physical comfort and waiting time. Efforts should focus on shortening waiting intervals and improving patients' perceptions about waiting in the ED, and also improving the overall cleanliness of the emergency room. PMID:21407998

Maternal and neonatal outcomes after bariatric surgery; a systematic review and meta-analysis: do the benefits outweigh the risks?

PubMed

Kwong, Wilson; Tomlinson, George; Feig, Denice S

2018-02-15

Obesity during pregnancy is associated with a number of adverse obstetric outcomes that include gestational diabetes mellitus, macrosomia, and preeclampsia. Increasing evidence shows that bariatric surgery may decrease the risk of these outcomes. Our aim was to evaluate the benefits and risks of bariatric surgery in obese women according to obstetric outcomes. We performed a systematic literature search using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, and PubMed from inception up to December 12, 2016. Studies were included if they evaluated patients who underwent bariatric surgery, reported subsequent pregnancy outcomes, and compared these outcomes with a control group. Two reviewers extracted study outcomes independently, and risk of bias was assessed with the use of the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Pooled odds ratios for each outcome were estimated with the Dersimonian and Laird random effects model. After a review of 2616 abstracts, 20 cohort studies and approximately 2.8 million subjects (8364 of whom had bariatric surgery) were included in the metaanalysis. In our primary analysis, patients who underwent bariatric surgery showed reduced rates of gestational diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.37, number needed to benefit, 5), large-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.59; number needed to benefit, 6), gestational hypertension (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.76; number needed to benefit, 11), all hypertensive disorders (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.53; number needed to benefit, 8), postpartum hemorrhage (odds ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-1.37; number needed to benefit, 21), and caesarean delivery rates (odds ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.67; number needed to benefit, 9); however, group of patients showed an increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 21), intrauterine growth restriction (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 66), and preterm deliveries (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.79; number needed to harm, 35) when compared with control subjects who were matched for presurgery body mass index. There were no differences in rates of preeclampsia, neonatal intensive care unit admissions, stillbirths, malformations, and neonatal death. Malabsorptive surgeries resulted in a greater increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (P=.0466) and a greater decrease in large-for-gestational-age infants (P=<.0001) compared with restrictive surgeries. There were no differences in outcomes when we used administrative databases vs clinical charts. Although bariatric surgery is associated with a reduction in the risk of several adverse obstetric outcomes, there is a potential for an increased risk of other important outcomes that should be considered when bariatric surgery is discussed with reproductive-age women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

2013-01-01

The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2006-01-01

Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

The microcomputer scientific software series 2: general linear model--regression.

Treesearch

Harold M. Rauscher

1983-01-01

The general linear model regression (GLMR) program provides the microcomputer user with a sophisticated regression analysis capability. The output provides a regression ANOVA table, estimators of the regression model coefficients, their confidence intervals, confidence intervals around the predicted Y-values, residuals for plotting, a check for multicollinearity, a...

Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zou, Guang Yong

2007-01-01

Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

Inexact nonlinear improved fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for irrigation water management under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chenglong; Zhang, Fan; Guo, Shanshan; Liu, Xiao; Guo, Ping

2018-01-01

An inexact nonlinear mλ-measure fuzzy chance-constrained programming (INMFCCP) model is developed for irrigation water allocation under uncertainty. Techniques of inexact quadratic programming (IQP), mλ-measure, and fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FCCP) are integrated into a general optimization framework. The INMFCCP model can deal with not only nonlinearities in the objective function, but also uncertainties presented as discrete intervals in the objective function, variables and left-hand side constraints and fuzziness in the right-hand side constraints. Moreover, this model improves upon the conventional fuzzy chance-constrained programming by introducing a linear combination of possibility measure and necessity measure with varying preference parameters. To demonstrate its applicability, the model is then applied to a case study in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwest China. An interval regression analysis method is used to obtain interval crop water production functions in the whole growth period under uncertainty. Therefore, more flexible solutions can be generated for optimal irrigation water allocation. The variation of results can be examined by giving different confidence levels and preference parameters. Besides, it can reflect interrelationships among system benefits, preference parameters, confidence levels and the corresponding risk levels. Comparison between interval crop water production functions and deterministic ones based on the developed INMFCCP model indicates that the former is capable of reflecting more complexities and uncertainties in practical application. These results can provide more reliable scientific basis for supporting irrigation water management in arid areas.

Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and quality of life.

PubMed

Jelovsek, J Eric; Barber, Matthew D

2006-05-01

Women who seek treatment for pelvic organ prolapse strive for an improvement in quality of life. Body image has been shown to be an important component of differences in quality of life. To date, there are no data on body image in patients with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Our objective was to compare body image and quality of life in women with advanced pelvic organ prolapse with normal controls. We used a case-control study design. Cases were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary urogynecology clinic with advanced pelvic organ prolapse (stage 3 or 4). Controls were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary care gynecology or women's health clinic for an annual visit with normal pelvic floor support (stage 0 or 1) and without urinary incontinence. All patients completed a valid and reliable body image scale and a generalized (Short Form Health Survey) and condition-specific (Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20) quality-of-life scale. Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to adjust for possible confounding variables. Forty-seven case and 51 control subjects were enrolled. After controlling for age, race, parity, previous hysterectomy, and medical comorbidities, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse were more likely to feel self-conscious (adjusted odds ratio 4.7; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 18, P = .02), less likely to feel physically attractive (adjusted odds ratio 11; 95% confidence interval 2.9 to 51, P < .001), less likely to feel feminine (adjusted odds ratio 4.0; 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 15, P = .03), and less likely to feel sexually attractive (adjusted odds ratio 4.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 17, P = .02) than normal controls. The groups were similar in their feeling of dissatisfaction with appearance when dressed, difficulty looking at themselves naked, avoiding people because of appearance, and overall dissatisfaction with their body. Subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse suffered significantly lower quality of life on the physical scale of the SF-12 (mean 42; 95% confidence interval 39 to 45 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 53, P < .009). However, no differences between groups were noted on the mental scale of the SF-12 (mean 51; 95% confidence interval 50 to 54 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 52, P = .56). Additionally, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse scored significantly worse on the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 than normal controls (mean summary score 104; 95% confidence interval 90 to 118 versus mean 29; 95% confidence interval 16 to 43, P < .0001), indicating a decrease in condition-specific quality of life. Worsening body image correlated with lower quality of life on both the physical and mental scales of the SF-12 as well as the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 in subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and overall quality of life. Body image may be a key determinant for quality of life in patients with advanced prolapse and may be an important outcome measure for treatment evaluation in clinical trials.

Exercise during pregnancy in normal-weight women and risk of preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Di Mascio, Daniele; Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Marhefka, Gregary D; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-11-01

Preterm birth is the major cause of perinatal mortality in the United States. In the past, pregnant women have been recommended to not exercise because of presumed risks of preterm birth. Physical activity has been theoretically related to preterm birth because it increases the release of catecholamines, especially norepinephrine, which might stimulate myometrial activity. Conversely, exercise may reduce the risk of preterm birth by other mechanisms such as decreased oxidative stress or improved placenta vascularization. Therefore, the safety of exercise regarding preterm birth and its effects on gestational age at delivery remain controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of exercise during pregnancy on the risk of preterm birth. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Sciences, Scopus, ClinicalTrial.gov, OVID, and Cochrane Library were searched from the inception of each database to April 2016. Selection criteria included only randomized clinical trials of pregnant women randomized before 23 weeks to an aerobic exercise regimen or not. Types of participants included women of normal weight with uncomplicated, singleton pregnancies without any obstetric contraindication to physical activity. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean difference with 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcome was the incidence of preterm birth <37 weeks. Of the 2059 women included in the meta-analysis, 1022 (49.6%) were randomized to the exercise group and 1037 (50.4%) to the control group. Aerobic exercise lasted about 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week. Women who were randomized to aerobic exercise had a similar incidence of preterm birth of <37 weeks (4.5% vs 4.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.50) and a similar mean gestational age at delivery (mean difference, 0.05 week, 95% confidence interval, -0.07 to 0.17) compared with controls. Women in the exercise group had a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery (73.6% vs 67.5%; relative risk, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.15) and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (17.9% vs 22%; relative risk, 0.82, 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.97) compared with controls. The incidence of operative vaginal delivery (12.9% vs 16.5%; relative risk, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.01) was similar in both groups. Women in the exercise group had a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (2.9% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.51, 95% confidence interval, 0.31-0.82) and a significantly lower incidence of hypertensive disorders (1.0% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.21, 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.45) compared with controls. No differences in low birthweight (5.2% vs 4.7%; relative risk, 1.11, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.73) and mean birthweight (mean difference, -10.46 g, 95% confidence interval, -47.10 to 26.21) between the exercise group and controls were found. Aerobic exercise for 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week during pregnancy can be safely performed by normal-weight women with singleton, uncomplicated gestations because this is not associated with an increased risk of preterm birth or with a reduction in mean gestational age at delivery. Exercise was associated with a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery, with a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders and therefore should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Lower Leg Injury Reference Values and Risk Curves from Survival Analysis for Male and Female Dummies: Meta-analysis of Postmortem Human Subject Tests.

PubMed

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W J; Pintar, Frank A; Banerjee, Anjishnu

2015-01-01

Derive lower leg injury risk functions using survival analysis and determine injury reference values (IRV) applicable to human mid-size male and small-size female anthropometries by conducting a meta-analysis of experimental data from different studies under axial impact loading to the foot-ankle-leg complex. Specimen-specific dynamic peak force, age, total body mass, and injury data were obtained from tests conducted by applying the external load to the dorsal surface of the foot of postmortem human subject (PMHS) foot-ankle-leg preparations. Calcaneus and/or tibia injuries, alone or in combination and with/without involvement of adjacent articular complexes, were included in the injury group. Injury and noninjury tests were included. Maximum axial loads recorded by a load cell attached to the proximal end of the preparation were used. Data were analyzed by treating force as the primary variable. Age was considered as the covariate. Data were censored based on the number of tests conducted on each specimen and whether it remained intact or sustained injury; that is, right, left, and interval censoring. The best fits from different distributions were based on the Akaike information criterion; mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained; and normalized confidence interval sizes (quality indices) were determined at 5, 10, 25, and 50% risk levels. The normalization was based on the mean curve. Using human-equivalent age as 45 years, data were normalized and risk curves were developed for the 50th and 5th percentile human size of the dummies. Out of the available 114 tests (76 fracture and 38 no injury) from 5 groups of experiments, survival analysis was carried out using 3 groups consisting of 62 tests (35 fracture and 27 no injury). Peak forces associated with 4 specific risk levels at 25, 45, and 65 years of age are given along with probability curves (mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals) for PMHS and normalized data applicable to male and female dummies. Quality indices increased (less tightness-of-fit) with decreasing age and risk level for all age groups and these data are given for all chosen risk levels. These PMHS-based probability distributions at different ages using information from different groups of researchers constituting the largest body of data can be used as human tolerances to lower leg injury from axial loading. Decreasing quality indices (increasing index value) at lower probabilities suggest the need for additional tests. The anthropometry-specific mid-size male and small-size female mean human risk curves along with plus and minus 95% confidence intervals from survival analysis and associated IRV data can be used as a first step in studies aimed at advancing occupant safety in automotive and other environments.

Big endothelin-1 as a tumour marker for canine haemangiosarcoma.

PubMed

Fukumoto, Shinya; Miyasho, Taku; Hanazono, Kiwamu; Saida, Kaname; Kadosawa, Tsuyoshi; Iwano, Hidetomo; Uchide, Tsuyoshi

2015-06-01

Haemangiosarcoma (HSA) is an important malignant neoplasm of dogs that originates from vascular endothelial cells. This study explored the suitability of using serum big endothelin-1 (ET-1) as a tumour marker for canine spontaneous HSA. Serum big ET-1 was measured in dogs with splenic HSA (n = 14), splenic malignant tumours other than HSA (n = 10), benign splenic lesions (n = 11) and normal healthy dogs (n = 17) by ELISA. Serum big ET-1 levels in dogs with HSA were significantly (P < 0.01) higher than in other dogs. High sensitivity (100%, 95% confidence interval 86-100%) and specificity (95%, 95% confidence interval 86-95%) for HSA diagnosis were obtained using a cut-off of 17 pg/mL according to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (area under ROC curve 0.93). PPET1, ETA, VEGF and Hif1-α mRNA expression, measured by real-time PCR, were elevated in HSA compared with normal tissues. These findings suggest that elevated serum big ET-1 could be used as a diagnostic marker for canine HSA. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methods for estimating confidence intervals in interrupted time series analyses of health interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Soumerai, Stephen B; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2009-02-01

Interrupted time series (ITS) is a strong quasi-experimental research design, which is increasingly applied to estimate the effects of health services and policy interventions. We describe and illustrate two methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) around absolute and relative changes in outcomes calculated from segmented regression parameter estimates. We used multivariate delta and bootstrapping methods (BMs) to construct CIs around relative changes in level and trend, and around absolute changes in outcome based on segmented linear regression analyses of time series data corrected for autocorrelated errors. Using previously published time series data, we estimated CIs around the effect of prescription alerts for interacting medications with warfarin on the rate of prescriptions per 10,000 warfarin users per month. Both the multivariate delta method (MDM) and the BM produced similar results. BM is preferred for calculating CIs of relative changes in outcomes of time series studies, because it does not require large sample sizes when parameter estimates are obtained correctly from the model. Caution is needed when sample size is small.

Coffee and risk of death from hepatocellular carcinoma in a large cohort study in Japan.

PubMed

Kurozawa, Y; Ogimoto, I; Shibata, A; Nose, T; Yoshimura, T; Suzuki, H; Sakata, R; Fujita, Y; Ichikawa, S; Iwai, N; Tamakoshi, A

2005-09-05

We examined the relation between coffee drinking and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk (JACC Study). In total, 110,688 cohort members (46,399 male and 64,289 female subjects) aged 40-79 years were grouped by coffee intake into three categories: one or more cups per day, less than one cup per day and non-coffee drinkers. Cox proportional hazards model by SAS was used to obtain hazard ratio of HCC mortality for each coffee consumption categories. The hazard ratios were adjusted for age, gender, educational status, history of diabetes and liver diseases, smoking habits and alcohol. The hazard ratio of death due to HCC for drinkers of one and more cups of coffee per day, compared with non-coffee drinkers, was 0.50 (95% confidence interval 0.31-0.79), and the ratio for drinkers of less than one cup per day was 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.54-1.25). Our data confirmed an inverse association between coffee consumption and HCC mortality.

Coffee and risk of death from hepatocellular carcinoma in a large cohort study in Japan

PubMed Central

Kurozawa, Y; Ogimoto, I; Shibata, A; Nose, T; Yoshimura, T; Suzuki, H; Sakata, R; Fujita, Y; Ichikawa, S; Iwai, N; Tamakoshi, A

2005-01-01

We examined the relation between coffee drinking and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk (JACC Study). In total, 110 688 cohort members (46 399 male and 64 289 female subjects) aged 40–79 years were grouped by coffee intake into three categories: one or more cups per day, less than one cup per day and non-coffee drinkers. Cox proportional hazards model by SAS was used to obtain hazard ratio of HCC mortality for each coffee consumption categories. The hazard ratios were adjusted for age, gender, educational status, history of diabetes and liver diseases, smoking habits and alcohol. The hazard ratio of death due to HCC for drinkers of one and more cups of coffee per day, compared with non-coffee drinkers, was 0.50 (95% confidence interval 0.31–0.79), and the ratio for drinkers of less than one cup per day was 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.54–1.25). Our data confirmed an inverse association between coffee consumption and HCC mortality. PMID:16091758

Special physical examination tests for superior labrum anterior posterior shoulder tears are clinically limited and invalid: a diagnostic systematic review.

PubMed

Calvert, Eric; Chambers, Gordon Keith; Regan, William; Hawkins, Robert H; Leith, Jordan M

2009-05-01

The diagnosis of a superior labrum anterior posterior (SLAP) lesion through physical examination has been widely reported in the literature. Most of these studies report high sensitivities and specificities, and claim to be accurate, valid, and reliable. The purpose of this study was to critically evaluate these studies to determine if there was sufficient evidence to support the use of the SLAP physical examination tests as valid and reliable diagnostic test procedures. Strict epidemiologic methodology was used to obtain and collate all relevant articles. Sackett's guidelines were applied to all articles. Confidence intervals and likelihood ratios were determined. Fifteen of 29 relevant studies met the criteria for inclusion. Only one article met all of Sackett's critical appraisal criteria. Confidence intervals for both the positive and negative likelihood ratios contained the value 1. The current literature being used as a resource for teaching in medical schools and continuing education lacks the validity necessary to be useful. There are no good physical examination tests that exist for effectively diagnosing a SLAP lesion.

Multidisciplinary perspective intervention with community involvement to decrease antibiotic sales in village groceries in Thailand.

PubMed

Arparsrithongsagul, Somsak; Kulsomboon, Vithaya; Zuckerman, Ilene H

2015-03-01

In Thailand, antibiotics are rampantly available in village groceries, despite the fact that it is illegal to sell antibiotics without a pharmacy license. This study implemented a multidisciplinary perspectives intervention with community involvement (MPI&CI), which was developed based on information obtained from focus groups that included multidisciplinary stakeholders. Community leaders in the intervention group were trained to implement MPI&CI in their villages. A quasi-experiment with a pretest-posttest design was conducted. Data were collected from 20 villages in Mahasarakham Province (intervention group) along with another 20 villages (comparison group). Using a generalized linear mixed model Poisson regression with repeated measures, groceries in the intervention group had 87% fewer antibiotics available at postintervention compared with preintervention (relative rate = 0.13; 95% confidence interval = 0.07-0.23), whereas the control group had only an 8% reduction in antibiotic availability (relative rate = 0.92; 95% confidence interval = 0.88-0.97) between the 2 time periods. Further study should be made to assess the sustainability and long-term effectiveness of MPI&CI. © 2013 APJPH.

Genetic influences on variation in female orgasmic function: a twin study

PubMed Central

Dunn, Kate M; Cherkas, Lynn F; Spector, Tim D

2005-01-01

Orgasmic dysfunction in females is commonly reported in the general population with little consensus on its aetiology. We performed a classical twin study to explore whether there were observable genetic influences on female orgasmic dysfunction. Adult females from the TwinsUK register were sent a confidential survey including questions on sexual problems. Complete responses to the questions on orgasmic dysfunction were obtained from 4037 women consisting of 683 monozygotic and 714 dizygotic pairs of female twins aged between 19 and 83 years. One in three women (32%) reported never or infrequently achieving orgasm during intercourse, with a corresponding figure of 21% during masturbation. A significant genetic influence was seen with an estimated heritability for difficulty reaching orgasm during intercourse of 34% (95% confidence interval 27–40%) and 45% (95% confidence interval 38–52%) for orgasm during masturbation. These results show that the wide variation in orgasmic dysfunction in females has a genetic basis and cannot be attributed solely to cultural influences. These results should stimulate further research into the biological and perhaps evolutionary processes governing female sexual function. PMID:17148182

Genetic influences on variation in female orgasmic function: a twin study.

PubMed

Dunn, Kate M; Cherkas, Lynn F; Spector, Tim D

2005-09-22

Orgasmic dysfunction in females is commonly reported in the general population with little consensus on its aetiology. We performed a classical twin study to explore whether there were observable genetic influences on female orgasmic dysfunction. Adult females from the TwinsUK register were sent a confidential survey including questions on sexual problems. Complete responses to the questions on orgasmic dysfunction were obtained from 4037 women consisting of 683 monozygotic and 714 dizygotic pairs of female twins aged between 19 and 83 years. One in three women (32%) reported never or infrequently achieving orgasm during intercourse, with a corresponding figure of 21% during masturbation. A significant genetic influence was seen with an estimated heritability for difficulty reaching orgasm during intercourse of 34% (95% confidence interval 27-40%) and 45% (95% confidence interval 38-52%) for orgasm during masturbation. These results show that the wide variation in orgasmic dysfunction in females has a genetic basis and cannot be attributed solely to cultural influences. These results should stimulate further research into the biological and perhaps evolutionary processes governing female sexual function.

A simple method for assessing occupational exposure via the one-way random effects model.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Mathew, Thomas; Peng, Jie

2016-11-01

A one-way random effects model is postulated for the log-transformed shift-long personal exposure measurements, where the random effect in the model represents an effect due to the worker. Simple closed-form confidence intervals are proposed for the relevant parameters of interest using the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER). The performance of the confidence bounds is evaluated and compared with those based on the generalized confidence interval approach. Comparison studies indicate that the proposed MOVER confidence bounds are better than the generalized confidence bounds for the overall mean exposure and an upper percentile of the exposure distribution. The proposed methods are illustrated using a few examples involving industrial hygiene data.

Prostate Cancer and Ambient Pesticide Exposure in Agriculturally Intensive Areas in California

PubMed Central

Cockburn, Myles; Mills, Paul; Zhang, Xinbo; Zadnick, John; Goldberg, Dan; Ritz, Beate

2011-01-01

In a population-based case-control study in California's intensely agricultural Central Valley (2005–2006), the authors investigated relations between environmental pesticide/fungicide exposure and prostate cancer. Cases (n = 173) were obtained from a population-based cancer registry, and controls (n = 162) were obtained from Medicare listings and tax assessor mailings. Past ambient exposures to pesticides/fungicides were derived from residential history and independently recorded pesticide and land-use data, using a novel geographic information systems approach. In comparison with unexposed persons, increased risks of prostate cancer were observed among persons exposed to compounds which may have prostate-specific biologic effects (methyl bromide (odds ratio = 1.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 2.59) and a group of organochlorines (odds ratio = 1.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 2.63)) but not among those exposed to other compounds that were included as controls (simazine, maneb, and paraquat dichloride). The authors assessed the possibility of selection bias due to less-than-100% enrollment of eligible cases and controls (a critical methodological concern in studies of this kind) and determined that there was little evidence of bias affecting the estimated effect size. This study provides evidence of an association between prostate cancer and ambient pesticide exposures in and around homes in intensely agricultural areas. The associations appear specific to compounds with a plausible biologic role in prostate carcinogenesis. PMID:21447478

The regression discontinuity design showed to be a valid alternative to a randomized controlled trial for estimating treatment effects.

PubMed

Maas, Iris L; Nolte, Sandra; Walter, Otto B; Berger, Thomas; Hautzinger, Martin; Hohagen, Fritz; Lutz, Wolfgang; Meyer, Björn; Schröder, Johanna; Späth, Christina; Klein, Jan Philipp; Moritz, Steffen; Rose, Matthias

2017-02-01

To compare treatment effect estimates obtained from a regression discontinuity (RD) design with results from an actual randomized controlled trial (RCT). Data from an RCT (EVIDENT), which studied the effect of an Internet intervention on depressive symptoms measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), were used to perform an RD analysis, in which treatment allocation was determined by a cutoff value at baseline (PHQ-9 = 10). A linear regression model was fitted to the data, selecting participants above the cutoff who had received the intervention (n = 317) and control participants below the cutoff (n = 187). Outcome was PHQ-9 sum score 12 weeks after baseline. Robustness of the effect estimate was studied; the estimate was compared with the RCT treatment effect. The final regression model showed a regression coefficient of -2.29 [95% confidence interval (CI): -3.72 to -.85] compared with a treatment effect found in the RCT of -1.57 (95% CI: -2.07 to -1.07). Although the estimates obtained from two designs are not equal, their confidence intervals overlap, suggesting that an RD design can be a valid alternative for RCTs. This finding is particularly important for situations where an RCT may not be feasible or ethical as is often the case in clinical research settings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Glutathione S-transferase M1 genotypes and the risk of vulvar cancer: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Chen, C; Madeleine, M M; Weiss, N S; Daling, J R

1999-09-01

Glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) facilitate the excretion of a variety of potential carcinogens. Some 50-60% of Caucasians are homozygous for the null allele of GSTM1, a gene responsible for the presence of one of these enzymes. The authors examined whether women with the GSTM1 null genotype are at altered risk of vulvar cancer. They obtained peripheral blood specimens from 18- to 79-year-old residents of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties of western Washington who were diagnosed with vulvar cancer between April 1991 and June 1994. Blood specimens were also obtained from controls identified via random digit telephone dialing of western Washington households. The authors determined the GSTM1 genotype of 137 cases (120 in situ and 17 invasive cases) and 248 controls. The frequency of the GSTM1 null genotype was 46.7% among cases and 57.3% among controls. The age-adjusted odds ratio associated with the GSTM1 null genotype was 0.7 (95% confidence interval: 0.4, 1.0). Among current smokers of cigarettes, the age-adjusted odds ratio associated with the GSTM1 null genotype was 0.5 (95% confidence interval: 0.2, 0.9), differing little between heavy and light smokers. Our data suggest that women with the GSTM1 null genotype are not at increased risk of vulvar cancer.

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

Impact of Prior Platinum-Based Therapy on Patients Receiving Salvage Systemic Treatment for Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma.

PubMed

Sonpavde, G; Pond, G R; Di Lorenzo, G; Buonerba, C; Rozzi, A; Lanzetta, G; Necchi, A; Giannatempo, P; Raggi, D; Matsumoto, K; Choueiri, T K; Mullane, S; Niegisch, G; Albers, P; Lee, J L; Kitamura, H; Kume, H; Bellmunt, J

2016-12-01

Trials of salvage therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma have required prior platinum-based therapy. This practice requires scrutiny because non-platinum-based first-line therapy may be offered to cisplatin-ineligible patients. Data of patients receiving salvage systemic chemotherapy were collected. Data on prior first-line platinum exposure were required in addition to treatment-free interval, hemoglobin, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, albumin, and liver metastasis status. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate their association with overall survival (OS) after accounting for salvage single-agent or combination chemotherapy. Data were obtained from 455 patients previously exposed to platinum-based therapy and 37 not exposed to platinum. In the group exposed to prior platinum therapy, salvage therapy consisted of a single-agent taxane (n = 184) or a taxane-containing combination chemotherapy (n = 271). In the group not exposed to prior platinum therapy, salvage therapy consisted of taxane or vinflunine (n = 20), 5-fluorouracil (n = 1), taxane-containing combination chemotherapy (n = 12), carboplatin-based combinations (n = 2), and cisplatin-based combinations (n = 2). The median OS for the prior platinum therapy group was 7.8 months (95% confidence interval, 7.0, 8.1), and for the group that had not received prior platinum therapy was 9.0 months (95% confidence interval, 6.0, 11.0; P = .50). In the multivariable analysis, prior platinum therapy versus no prior platinum exposure did not confer an independent impact on OS (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.75, 1.64; P = .62). Prior platinum- versus non-platinum-based chemotherapy did not have a prognostic impact on OS after accounting for major prognostic factors in patients receiving salvage systemic chemotherapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma. Lack of prior platinum therapy should not disqualify patients from inclusion onto trials of salvage therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Amy E.

2014-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

Characterizing the Mathematics Anxiety Literature Using Confidence Intervals as a Literature Review Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Yetkiner, Z. Ebrar; Thompson, Bruce

2010-01-01

The authors report the contextualization of effect sizes within mathematics anxiety research, and more specifically within research using the Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) and the MARS for Adolescents (MARS-A). The effect sizes from 45 studies were characterized by graphing confidence intervals (CIs) across studies involving (a) adults…

Statistical inference for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Statistical inference requires expression of an estimate in probabilistic terms, usually in the form of a confidence interval. An approach to constructing confidence intervals for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation is illustrated. The approach is based on post-classification methods using two independent forest/non-forest classifications because...

Estimating Standardized Linear Contrasts of Means with Desired Precision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2009-01-01

L. Wilkinson and the Task Force on Statistical Inference (1999) recommended reporting confidence intervals for measures of effect sizes. If the sample size is too small, the confidence interval may be too wide to provide meaningful information. Recently, K. Kelley and J. R. Rausch (2006) used an iterative approach to computer-generate tables of…

UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMATIC MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THERMAL-OPTICAL ANALYSIS FOR PM BLACK CARBON USING RESPONSE SURFACES AND SURFACE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

EPA Science Inventory

Results from a NIST-EPA Interagency Agreement on Understanding Systematic Measurement Error in Thermal-Optical Analysis for PM Black Carbon Using Response Surfaces and Surface Confidence Intervals will be presented at the American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) 24th Annu...

The impact of effort-reward imbalance on quality of life among Japanese working men.

PubMed

Watanabe, Mayumi; Tanaka, Katsutoshi; Aratake, Yutaka; Kato, Noritada; Sakata, Yumi

2008-07-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQL) is an important measure of health outcome in working and healthy populations. Here, we investigated the impact of effort-reward imbalance (ERI), a representative work-stress model, on HRQL of Japanese working men. The study targeted 1,096 employees from a manufacturing plant in Japan. To assess HRQL and ERI, participants were surveyed using the Japanese version of the Short-Form 8 Health Survey (SF-8) and effort-reward imbalance model. Of the 1,096 employees, 1,057 provided valid responses to the questionnaire. For physical summary scores, the adjusted effort-reward imbalance odds ratios of middle vs. bottom and top vs. bottom tertiles were 0.24 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.70) and 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.28), respectively. For mental summary scores, ratios were 0.21 (95% confidence interval, 0.07-0.63) and 0.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.25), respectively. These findings demonstrate that effort-reward imbalance is independently associated with HRQL among Japanese employees.

Factors associated with pregnancy intention among women who have experienced a short birth interval: findings from the 2009 to 2011 Mississippi and 2009 Tennessee Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System.

PubMed

Brunner Huber, Larissa R; Smith, Kenesha; Sha, Wei; Zhao, Liang; Vick, Tara

2018-06-01

One-third of all pregnancies in the United States are conceived within 18 months of a prior live birth. Preventing unintended pregnancies may help to decrease the prevalence of pregnancies with these short interpregnancy intervals. However, data on factors associated with pregnancy intention among women who have had short birth intervals are sparse. Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System data were used to further evaluate these associations. Because only Mississippi and Tennessee Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System include a survey question about birth interval length, this analysis was limited to women from those states who recently had a short birth interval (n = 384). Pregnancy intention and demographic, lifestyle, and reproductive data were obtained from surveys and birth certificates. Logistic regression was used to obtain odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Nearly 76% of women with short birth intervals reported their pregnancy as unintended. Women who were non-Hispanic black or consumed alcohol during pregnancy had statistically significant increased odds of reporting the pregnancy with a short birth interval as being unintended (OR = 3.98; 95% CI: 1.73-9.16 and OR = 10.56; 95% CI: 1.80-61.83, respectively). Although all women should be counseled on postpartum contraceptive use, findings suggest that important subpopulations of women may benefit from more targeted counseling during prenatal care visits and the immediate postpartum hospital stay regarding the importance of using contraception to not only better space pregnancies but also prevent unintended pregnancies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Proposal for the systematization of the elastographic study of mammary lesions through ultrasound scan].

PubMed

Fleury, Eduardo de Faria Castro; Fleury, Jose Carlos Vendramini; Oliveira, Vilmar Marques de; Rinaldi, Jose Francisco; Piato, Sebastiao; Roveda Junior, Decio

2009-01-01

Proposal of systematization for the elastographic study in the ultrasound routine. Evaluation was made of 308 patients forwarded to the breast intervention service in the CTC-Genesis from May 1, 2007 to March 1, 2008 to perform percutaneous breast biopsy. Prior to the percutaneous biopsy, an ultrasound study and an elastography were performed. Lesions were primarily analyzed and classified according to the Bi-Rads lexicon criteria by the conventional ultrasound scan (B mode). The elastography was then performed and analyzed in accordance with the systematization proposed by the authors, using images obtained during compression and after decompression of the area of interest. Lesions were classified following the system developed by the authors using a four-point scale, where scores (1) and (2) were considered benign, score (3) probably benign and score (4) suspicion of malignancy. Results obtained by the two methods were compared with the histological results using the areas within the ROC (receiver operator curves) curves. The area within the curve for elastography was of 0.952 with a confidence interval between 0.910 and 0.966, error of 0.023, and of 0.867 with a confidence interval between 0.823 and 0.903, error of 0.0333 for the ultrasound. When the areas were compared, a difference between the curves of 0.026 was observed, which was statistically significant. This work shows the systematization of the elastographic study using information obtained during compression and after decompression of the ultrasound scan sample, thus showing that elastography might enhance the assessment of risk of malignancy for lesions characterized by the ultrasound.

Sex hormones and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 9-year follow up among elderly men in Finland.

PubMed

Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Räihä, Ismo; Niskanen, Leo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Irjala, Kerttu

2015-05-01

To analyze whether sex hormone levels predict the incidence of type2 diabetes among elderly Finnish men. This was a prospective population-based study, with a 9-year follow up period. The study population in the municipality of Lieto, Finland, consisted of elderly (age ≥64 years) men free of type 2 diabetes at baseline in 1998-1999 (n = 430). Body mass index and cardiovascular disease-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for type 2 diabetes predicted by testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, luteinizing hormone, and testosterone/luteinizing hormone were estimated. A total of 30 new cases of type 2 diabetes developed during the follow-up period. After adjustment, only higher levels of testosterone (hazard ratio for one-unit increase 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99, P = 0.020) and free testosterone (hazard ratio for 10-unit increase 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00, P = 0.044) were associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes during the follow up. These associations (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.00, P = 0.050 and 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.00, P = 0.035, respectively) persisted even after additional adjustment of sex hormone-binding globulin. Higher levels of testosterone and free testosterone independently predicted a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes in the elderly men. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

N-acetyltransferase 2 gene polymorphism as a biomarker for susceptibility to bladder cancer in Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Hosen, Md Bayejid; Islam, Jahidul; Salam, Md Abdus; Islam, Md Fakhrul; Hawlader, M Zakir Hossain; Kabir, Yearul

2015-03-01

To investigate the association between the three most common single nucleotide polymorphisms of the N-acetyltransferase 2 gene together with cigarette smoking and the risk of developing bladder cancer and its aggressiveness. A case-control study on 102 bladder cancer patients and 140 control subjects was conducted. The genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells and N-acetyltransferase 2 alleles were differentiated by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism methods. Bladder cancer risk was estimated as odds ratio and 95% confidence interval using binary logistic regression models adjusting for age and gender. Overall, N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were associated with bladder cancer risk (odds ratio=4.45; 95% confidence interval=2.26-8.77). The cigarette smokers with slow genotypes were found to have a sixfold increased risk to develop bladder cancer (odds ratio=6.05; 95% confidence interval=2.23-15.82). Patients with slow acetylating genotypes were more prone to develop high-grade (odds ratio=6.63; 95% confidence interval=1.15-38.13; P<0.05) and invasive (odds ratio=10.6; 95% confidence interval=1.00-111.5; P=0.05) tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype together with tobacco smoking increases bladder cancer risk. Patients with N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were more likely to develop a high-grade and invasive tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype is an important genetic determinant for bladder cancer in Bangladesh population. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ruanpeng, Darin; Ungprasert, Patompong; Sangtian, Jutarat; Harindhanavudhi, Tasma

2017-09-01

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors could potentially alter calcium and phosphate homeostasis and may increase the risk of bone fracture. The current meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the fracture risk among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors. Randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors to placebo were identified. The risk ratios of fracture among patients who received SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo were extracted from each study. Pooled risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a random-effect, Mantel-Haenszel analysis. A total of 20 studies with 8286 patients treated with SGLT2 inhibitors were included. The pooled risk ratio of bone fracture in patients receiving SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo was 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.42-1.07). The pooled risk ratio for canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and empagliflozin was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.37-1.19), 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.22-3.18), and 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-1.59), respectively. Increased risk of bone fracture among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with placebo was not observed in this meta-analysis. However, the results were limited by short duration of treatment/follow-up and low incidence of the event of interest. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of gender role attitudes on smoking and drinking among girls from Jujuy, Argentina.

PubMed

Mejia, Raul; Kaplan, Celia P; Alderete, Ethel; Gregorich, Steven E; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

2013-09-01

Evaluate effect of gender role attitudes on tobacco and alcohol use among Argentinean girls. Cross-sectional survey of 10th grade students attending 27 randomly selected schools in Jujuy, Argentina. Questions about tobacco and alcohol use were adapted from global youth surveys. Five items with 5-point response options of agreement-disagreement assessed attitude towards egalitarian (higher score) gender roles. 2133 girls, aged 13-18 years, 71% Indigenous, 22% mixed Indigenous/European, and 7% European responded. Of these, 60% had ever smoked, 32% were current smokers, 58% ever drinkers, 27% drank in previous month, and 13% had ≥5 drinks on one occasion. Mean response to the gender role scale was 3.49 (95% Confidence Intervals = 3.41-3.57) out of 5 tending toward egalitarian attitudes. Logistic regression models using the gender role scale score as the main predictor and adjusting for demographic and social confounders showed that egalitarian gender role was associated with ever smoking (Odds Ratio = 1.25; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.09-1.44), ever drinking (Odds Ratio = 1.24; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.10-1.40), drinking in prior month (Odds Ratio = 1.21; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.07-1.37) and ≥5 drinks on one occasion (Odds Ratio = 1.15; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.00-1.33), but was not significant for current smoking. Girls in Jujuy who reported more egalitarian gender role attitudes had higher odds of smoking or drinking. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hostility and the risk of peptic ulcer in the GAZEL cohort.

PubMed

Lemogne, Cédric; Schuster, Jean-Pierre; Levenstein, Susan; Melchior, Maria; Nabi, Hermann; Ducimetière, Pierre; Limosin, Frédéric; Goldberg, Marcel; Zins, Marie; Consoli, Silla M

2015-02-01

Evidence for an association between hostility and peptic ulcer mainly relies on cross-sectional studies. Prospective studies are rare and have not used a validated measure of hostility. This prospective study aimed to examine the association between hostility and peptic ulcer in the large-scale French GAZEL cohort. In 1993, 14,674 participants completed the Buss and Durkee Hostility Inventory. Participants were annually followed-up from 1994 to 2011. Diagnosis of peptic ulcer was self-reported. The association between hostility scores and ulcer incidence was measured by hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals computed through Cox regression. Among 13,539 participants free of peptic ulcer history at baseline, 816 reported a peptic ulcer during a mean follow-up of 16.8 years. Adjusting for potential confounders, including smoking, occupational grade, and a proxy for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug exposure, ulcer incidence was positively associated with total hostility (HR per SD: 1.23, confidence interval: 1.14-1.31), behavioral hostility (HR per SD: 1.13, confidence interval: 1.05-1.21), cognitive hostility (HR per SD: 1.26, confidence interval: 1.18-1.35), and irritability (HR per SD: 1.20, confidence interval: 1.12-1.29). The risk of peptic ulcer increased from the lowest to the highest quartile for all hostility measures (p for linear trend < .05). Hostility might be associated with an increased risk of peptic ulcer. Should these results be replicated, further studies would be needed to explore the underlying mechanisms.

Influence of air quality model resolution on uncertainty associated with health impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

2012-10-01

We use regional air quality modeling to evaluate the impact of model resolution on uncertainty associated with the human health benefits resulting from proposed air quality regulations. Using a regional photochemical model (CAMx), we ran a modeling episode with meteorological inputs simulating conditions as they occurred during August through September 2006 (a period representative of conditions leading to high ozone), and two emissions inventories (a 2006 base case and a 2018 proposed control scenario, both for Houston, Texas) at 36, 12, 4 and 2 km resolution. The base case model performance was evaluated for each resolution against daily maximum 8-h averaged ozone measured at monitoring stations. Results from each resolution were more similar to each other than they were to measured values. Population-weighted ozone concentrations were calculated for each resolution and applied to concentration response functions (with 95% confidence intervals) to estimate the health impacts of modeled ozone reduction from the base case to the control scenario. We found that estimated avoided mortalities were not significantly different between the 2, 4 and 12 km resolution runs, but the 36 km resolution may over-predict some potential health impacts. Given the cost/benefit analysis requirements motivated by Executive Order 12866 as it applies to the Clean Air Act, the uncertainty associated with human health impacts and therefore the results reported in this study, we conclude that health impacts calculated from population weighted ozone concentrations obtained using regional photochemical models at 36 km resolution fall within the range of values obtained using fine (12 km or finer) resolution modeling. However, in some cases, 36 km resolution may not be fine enough to statistically replicate the results achieved using 2, 4 or 12 km resolution. On average, when modeling at 36 km resolution, an estimated 5 deaths per week during the May through September ozone season are avoided because of ozone reductions resulting from the proposed emissions reductions (95% confidence interval was 2-8). When modeling at 2, 4 or 12 km finer scale resolution, on average 4 deaths are avoided due to the same reductions (95% confidence interval was 1-7). Study results show that ozone modeling at a resolution finer than 12 km is unlikely to reduce uncertainty in benefits analysis for this specific region. We suggest that 12 km resolution may be appropriate for uncertainty analyses of health impacts due to ozone control scenarios, in areas with similar chemistry, meteorology and population density, but that resolution requirements should be assessed on a case-by-case basis and revised as confidence intervals for concentration-response functions are updated.

Albumin treatment regimen for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome: a dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Salerno, Francesco; Navickis, Roberta J; Wilkes, Mahlon M

2015-11-25

Recommended treatment for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome consists of albumin and vasoconstrictor. The optimal albumin dose remains poorly characterized. This meta-analysis aimed to determine the impact of albumin dose on treatment outcomes. Clinical studies of type 1 hepatorenal syndrome treatment with albumin and vasoconstrictor were sought. Search terms included: hepatorenal syndrome; albumin; vasoconstrictor; terlipressin; midodrine; octreotide; noradrenaline; and norepinephrine. A meta-analysis was performed of hepatorenal syndrome reversal and survival in relation to albumin dose. Nineteen clinical studies with 574 total patients were included, comprising 8 randomized controlled trials, 8 prospective studies and 3 retrospective studies. The pooled percentage of patients achieving hepatorenal syndrome reversal was 49.5% (95% confidence interval, 40.0-59.1%). Increments of 100 g in cumulative albumin dose were accompanied by significantly increased survival (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.31; p = 0.023). A non-significant increase of similar magnitude in hepatorenal syndrome reversal was also observed (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.37; p = 0.10). Expected survival rates at 30 days among patients receiving cumulative albumin doses of 200, 400 and 600 g were 43.2% (95% confidence interval, 36.4-51.3%), 51.4% (95% confidence interval, 46.3-57.1%) and 59.0% (95% confidence interval, 51.9-67.2), respectively. Neither survival nor hepatorenal syndrome reversal was significantly affected by vasoconstrictor dose or type, treatment duration, age, baseline serum creatinine, bilirubin or albumin, baseline mean arterial pressure, or study design, size or time period. This meta-analysis suggests a dose-response relationship between infused albumin and survival in patients with type 1 hepatorenal syndrome. The meta-analysis provides the best current evidence on the potential role of albumin dose selection in improving outcomes of treatment for type 1 HRS and furnishes guidance for the design of future dose-ranging studies.

Prevalence of orofacial clefts and risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in newborns at a university hospital from West Mexico.

PubMed

Corona-Rivera, Jorge Román; Bobadilla-Morales, Lucina; Corona-Rivera, Alfredo; Peña-Padilla, Christian; Olvera-Molina, Sandra; Orozco-Martín, Miriam A; García-Cruz, Diana; Ríos-Flores, Izabel M; Gómez-Rodríguez, Brian Gabriel; Rivas-Soto, Gemma; Pérez-Molina, J Jesús

2018-02-19

We determined the overall prevalence of typical orofacial clefts and the potential risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in a university hospital from West México. For the prevalence, 227 liveborn infants with typical orofacial clefts were included from a total of 81,193 births occurred during the period 2009-2016 at the "Dr. Juan I. Menchaca" Civil Hospital of Guadalajara (Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico). To evaluate potential risks, a case-control study was conducted among 420 newborns, including only those 105 patients with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (cases), and 315 infants without birth defects (controls). Data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis expressed as adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals . The overall prevalence for typical orofacial clefts was 28 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval: 24.3-31.6), or 1 per 358 live births. The mean values for the prepregnancy weight, antepartum weight, and pre-pregnancy body mass index were statistically higher among the mothers of cases. Infants with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate had a significantly higher risk for previous history of any type of congenital anomaly (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7; 95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.1), history of a relative with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (adjusted odds ratio: 19.6; 95% confidence interval: 8.2-47.1), and first-trimester exposures to progestogens (adjusted odds ratio: 6.8; 95% CI 1.8-25.3), hyperthermia (adjusted odds ratio: 3.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-10.6), and common cold (adjusted odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-11.9). These risks could have contributed to explain the high prevalence of orofacial clefts in our region of Mexico, emphasizing that except for history of relatives with cleft lip with or without cleft palate, most are susceptible of modification. © 2018 Japanese Teratology Society.

Fixed ratio combinations of glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists with basal insulin: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liakopoulou, Paraskevi; Liakos, Aris; Vasilakou, Despoina; Athanasiadou, Eleni; Bekiari, Eleni; Kazakos, Kyriakos; Tsapas, Apostolos

2017-06-01

Basal insulin controls primarily fasting plasma glucose but causes hypoglycaemia and weight gain, whilst glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists induce weight loss without increasing risk for hypoglycaemia. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials to investigate the efficacy and safety of fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library as well as conference abstracts up to December 2016. We assessed change in haemoglobin A 1c , body weight, and incidence of hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal adverse events. We included eight studies with 5732 participants in the systematic review. Switch from basal insulin to fixed ratio combinations with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist was associated with 0.72% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c [95% confidence interval -1.03 to -0.41; I 2  = 93%] and 2.35 kg reduction in body weight (95% confidence interval -3.52 to -1.19; I 2  = 93%), reducing also risk for hypoglycaemia [odds ratio 0.70; 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.86; I 2  = 85%] but increasing incidence of nausea (odds ratio 6.89; 95% confidence interval 3.73-12.74; I 2  = 79%). Similarly, switching patients from treatment with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist to a fixed ratio combination with basal insulin was associated with 0.94% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c (95% confidence interval -1.11 to -0.77) and an increase in body weight by 2.89 kg (95% confidence interval 2.17-3.61). Fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists improve glycaemic control whilst balancing out risk for hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal side effects.

Neonatal Infection in Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Smilga, Anne-Sophie; Garfinkle, Jarred; Ng, Pamela; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-03-01

The goal of this study was to explore the association between neonatal infection and outcomes in children with cerebral palsy. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Canadian CP Registry. Neonatal infection was defined as meeting one of the following criteria: (1) septicemia, (2) septic shock, or (3) administration of antibiotics for ≥10 days. Phenotypic profiles of children with cerebral palsy with and without an antecedent neonatal infection were compared. Subgroup analysis was performed, stratified by gestational age (term versus preterm). Of the 1229 registry participants, 505 (41.1%) were preterm, and 192 (15.6%) met the criteria for neonatal infection with 29% of preterm children having a neonatal infection compared with 6.5% in term-born children. Children with prior neonatal infection were more likely to have a white matter injury (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.2), spastic diplegic neurological subtype (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.3), and sensorineural auditory impairment (odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 3.3). Among preterm children, neonatal infection was not associated with a difference in phenotypic profile. Term-born children with neonatal infection were more likely to have spastic triplegia or quadriplegia (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.3), concomitant white matter and cortical injury (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6 to 10.3), and more severe gross motor ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System IV to V) (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8) compared with preterm children. Findings suggest a role of systemic infection on the developing brain in term-born infants, and the possibility to develop targeted therapeutic and preventive strategies to reduce cerebral palsy morbidity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

T-category remains an important prognostic factor for oropharyngeal carcinoma in the era of human papillomavirus.

PubMed

Mackenzie, P; Pryor, D; Burmeister, E; Foote, M; Panizza, B; Burmeister, B; Porceddu, S

2014-10-01

To determine prognostic factors for locoregional relapse (LRR), distant relapse and all-cause death in a contemporary cohort of locoregionally advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone. OSCC patients treated with definitive radiotherapy between 2005 and 2010 were identified from a prospective head and neck database. Patient age, gender, smoking history, human papillomavirus (HPV) status, T- and N-category, lowest involved nodal level and gross tumour volume of the primary (GTV-p) and nodal (GTV-n) disease were analysed in relation to LRR, distant relapse and death by way of univariate and multivariate analysis. In total, 130 patients were identified, 88 HPV positive, with a median follow-up of 42 months. On multivariate analysis HPV status was a significant predictor of LRR (hazard ratio 0.15; 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.51) and death (hazard ratio 0.29; 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.59) but not distant relapse (hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.22-1.27). Increasing T-category was associated with a higher risk of LRR (hazard ratio 1.80 for T3/4 versus T1/2; 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.99), death (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.77) and distant relapse (hazard ratio 1.35; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.83). Increasing GTV-p was associated with increased risk of distant relapse and death. N3 disease and low neck nodes were significant for LRR, distant relapse and death on univariate analysis only. Tumour HPV status was the strongest predictor of LRR and death. T-category is more predictive of distant relapse and may provide additional prognostic value for LRR and death when accounting for HPV status. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) as screening instruments for depression in patients with cancer.

PubMed

Hartung, Tim J; Friedrich, Michael; Johansen, Christoffer; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Faller, Herman; Koch, Uwe; Brähler, Elmar; Härter, Martin; Keller, Monika; Schulz, Holger; Wegscheider, Karl; Weis, Joachim; Mehnert, Anja

2017-11-01

Depression screening in patients with cancer is recommended by major clinical guidelines, although the evidence on individual screening tools is limited for this population. Here, the authors assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of 2 established screening instruments: the depression modules of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D), in a representative sample of patients with cancer. This multicenter study was conducted with a proportional, stratified, random sample of 2141 patients with cancer across all major tumor sites and treatment settings. The PHQ-9 and HADS-D were assessed and compared in terms of diagnostic accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition diagnosis of major depressive disorder using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview for Oncology as the criterion standard. The diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-9 and HADS-D was fair for diagnosing major depressive disorder, with areas under the ROC curves of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.79) and 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.77), respectively. The 2 questionnaires did not differ significantly in their areas under the ROC curves (P = .15). The PHQ-9 with a cutoff score ≥7 had the best screening performance, with a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 78%-89%) and a specificity of 61% (95% confidence interval, 59%-63%). The American Society of Clinical Oncology guideline screening algorithm had a sensitivity of 44% (95% confidence interval, 36%-51%) and a specificity of 84% (95% confidence interval, 83%-85%). In patients with cancer, the screening performance of both the PHQ-9 and the HADS-D was limited compared with a standardized diagnostic interview. Costs and benefits of routinely screening all patients with cancer should be weighed carefully. Cancer 2017;123:4236-4243. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal.

PubMed

Mocroft, Amanda; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Egger, Matthias; May, Margaret; Grabar, Sophie; Furrer, Hansjakob; Sabin, Caroline; Fatkenheuer, Gerd; Justice, Amy; Reiss, Peter; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Gill, John; Hogg, Robert; Bonnet, Fabrice; Kitahata, Mari; Staszewski, Schlomo; Casabona, Jordi; Harris, Ross; Saag, Michael

2009-04-15

The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

Out-of-range INR values and outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Nelson, Winnie W; Wang, Li; Baser, Onur; Damaraju, Chandrasekharrao V; Schein, Jeffrey R

2015-02-01

Although efficacious in stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation, many warfarin patients are sub-optimally managed. To evaluate the association of international normalized ratio control and clinical outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Adult non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients (≥18 years) initiating warfarin treatment were selected from the US Veterans Health Administration dataset between 10/2007 and 9/2012. Valid international normalized ratio values were examined from the warfarin initiation date through the earlier of the first clinical outcome, end of warfarin exposure or death. Each patient contributed multiple in-range and out-of-range time periods. The relative risk ratios of clinical outcomes associated with international normalized ratio control were estimated. 34,346 patients were included for analysis. During the warfarin exposure period, the incidence of events per 100 person-years was highest when patients had international normalized ratio <2:13.66 for acute coronary syndrome; 10.30 for ischemic stroke; 2.93 for transient ischemic attack; 1.81 for systemic embolism; and 4.55 for major bleeding. Poisson regression confirmed that during periods with international normalized ratio <2, patients were at increased risk of developing acute coronary syndrome (relative risk ratio: 7.9; 95 % confidence interval 6.9-9.1), ischemic stroke (relative risk ratio: 7.6; 95 % confidence interval 6.5-8.9), transient ischemic attack (relative risk ratio: 8.2; 95 % confidence interval 6.1-11.2), systemic embolism (relative risk ratio: 6.3; 95 % confidence interval 4.4-8.9) and major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 2.6; 95 % confidence interval 2.2-3.0). During time periods with international normalized ratio >3, patients had significantly increased risk of major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 1.5; 95 % confidence interval 1.2-2.0). In a Veterans Health Administration non-valvular atrial fibrillation population, exposure to out-of-range international normalized ratio values was associated with significantly increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes.

The prevalence of diagnosed tourette syndrome in Canada: A national population-based study.

PubMed

Yang, Jaeun; Hirsch, Lauren; Martino, Davide; Jette, Nathalie; Roberts, Jodie; Pringsheim, Tamara

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine: (1) the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome in Canada by sex in youth (aged 12-17) and adults and (2) socioeconomic factors in this population. The majority of epidemiological studies of tics have focused on children and youth, with few studies describing the prevalence of tics in adult populations. Canadian data on Tourette syndrome prevalence were derived from the Canadian Community Health Survey 2010 and 2011 cycles, a Statistics Canada population-based cross-sectional survey that collects information related to health status. We determined the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome and examined sociodemographic factors, including age, sex, education, income, employment, and birthplace. Overall, 122,884 Canadians participated in the surveys, with 122 participants diagnosed with Tourette syndrome. The prevalence of Tourette syndrome was higher in males in youth: 6.03 per 1000 (95% confidence interval: 3.24-8.81) in males versus 0.48 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.91) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 5.31 (95% confidence interval: 2.38-11.81). In adults, the prevalence of Tourette syndrome was 0.89 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.48-1.29) in males versus 0.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.16.0-0.71) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 1.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-3.08). After adjusting for age and sex, adults with Tourette syndrome had lower odds of receiving postsecondary education or being employed and higher odds of having income lower than the median and receiving governmental support. Data on the prevalence of Tourette syndrome in adults are scarce because most studies focus on children. Our data demonstrate a decreasing prevalence risk ratio for sex in adults compared to children. A diagnosis of Tourette syndrome is associated with lower education, income, and employment in adulthood. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Stroke preparedness in children: translating knowledge into behavioral intent: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ottawa, Cassandra; Sposato, Luciano A; Nabbouh, Fadl; Saposnik, Gustavo

2015-10-01

If translated into behavioral intent, improving stroke knowledge may potentially impact on better outcomes. Children are an attractive target population since they can drive familial behavioral changes. However, the impact of interventions on stroke knowledge among children is unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether educational interventions targeting children improve stroke knowledge and lead to behavioral changes. We searched Ovid, PubMed, and Embase between January 2000 and December 2014. We included studies written in English reporting the number of children aged 6-15 years undergoing educational interventions on stroke and providing the results for baseline and early and late postintervention tests. We compared the proportion of correct answers between baseline, early, and late responses for two endpoints: knowledge and behavioral intent. Of the initial 58 articles found, we included nine that met the inclusion criteria. Compared with baseline tests (51·7%, 95% confidence interval 40·9-62·4), there was improvement in stroke knowledge in early (74·0%, 95% confidence interval 64·4-82·5, P = 0·002) and late (67·3%, 95% confidence interval 55·4-78·2, P = 0·027) responses. There was improvement in the early (92·1%, 95% confidence interval 86·0-96·6, P < 0·001) and late (83·9%, 95% confidence interval 73·5-92·1, P = 0·001) responses for behavioral intent compared with the baseline assessment (63·8%, 95% confidence interval 53·5-73·4). Children are a potentially attractive target population for improvement in stroke knowledge and behavioral intent, both in the short and long term. Our findings may support the implementation of large-scale stroke educational initiatives targeting children. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Suicide in patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sugawara, Akitomo; Kunieda, Etsuo

2016-09-01

We conducted this study to examine the rate of suicide in patients with gastric cancer and to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The database was queried for patients who were diagnosed with gastric cancer from 1998 to 2011. The rate of suicide and standardized mortality ratio were calculated. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide. A total of 65 535 patients with 109 597 person-years of follow-up were included. A total of 68 patients died of suicide. The age-adjusted rate of suicide was 34.6 per 100 000 person-years (standardized mortality ratios, 4.07; 95% confidence interval, 3.18-5.13). The rate of suicide was highest within the first 3 months after cancer diagnosis (standardized mortality ratios, 67.67; 95% confidence interval, 40.74-106.15). Results of multivariable analyses showed that male sex (incidence rate ratio, 7.15; 95% confidence interval, 3.05-16.78; P < 0.0001), White race (incidence rate ratio, 3.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-10.35; P = 0.0491), unmarried status (incidence rate ratio, 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.30; P = 0.0060) and distant stage disease (incidence rate ratio, 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.72-4.92; P < 0.0001) were significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. Patients with gastric cancer have an ~4-fold higher risk of suicide compared with the general US population. The suicide risk is highest within the first 3 months after diagnosis. Male sex, White race, unmarried status and distant stage disease are significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Integrating palliative care across settings: A retrospective cohort study of a hospice home care programme for cancer patients.

PubMed

Tan, Woan Shin; Lee, Angel; Yang, Sze Yee; Chan, Susan; Wu, Huei Yaw; Ng, Charis Wei Ling; Heng, Bee Hoon

2016-07-01

Terminally ill patients at the end-of-life do transit between care settings due to their complex care needs. Problems of care fragmentation could result in poor quality of care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of an integrated hospice home care programme on acute care service usage and on the share of home deaths. The retrospective study cohort comprised patients who were diagnosed with cancer, had an expected prognosis of 1 year or less, and were referred to a home hospice. The intervention group comprised deceased patients enrolled in the integrated hospice home care programme between September 2012 and June 2014. The historical comparison group comprised deceased patients who were referred to other home hospices between January 2007 and January 2011. There were 321 cases and 593 comparator subjects. Relative to the comparator group, the share of hospital deaths was significantly lower for programme participants (12.1% versus 42.7%). After adjusting for differences at baseline, the intervention group had statistically significantly lower emergency department visits at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.38; 95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.47), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.69) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.77) prior to death. Similar results held for the number of hospitalisations at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.48; 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.58), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.82) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.88) prior to death. Our results demonstrated that by integrating services between acute care and home hospice care, a reduction in acute care service usage could occur. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of dry eye syndrome in an adult population.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Mehravaran, Shiva; Shariati, Mohammad; Fotouhi, Akbar

2014-04-01

To determine the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the general 40- to 64-year-old population of Shahroud, Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Through cluster sampling, 6311 people were selected and 5190 participated. Assessment of dry eye was done in a random subsample of 1008 people. Subjective assessment for dry eye syndrome was performed using Ocular Surface Disease Index questionnaire. In addition, the following objective tests of dry eye syndrome were employed: Schirmer test, tear break-up time, and fluorescein and Rose Bengal staining using the Oxford grading scheme. Those with an Ocular Surface Disease Index score ≥23 were considered symptomatic, and dry eye syndrome was defined as having symptoms and at least one positive objective sign. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 6.9-10.6). Assessment of signs showed an abnormal Schirmer score in 17.8% (95% confidence interval 15.5-20.0), tear break-up time in 34.2% (95% confidence interval 29.5-38.8), corneal fluorescein staining (≥1) in 11.3% (95% confidence interval 8.5-14.1) and Rose Bengal staining (≥3 for cornea and/or conjunctiva) in 4.9% (95% confidence interval 3.4-6.5). According to the Ocular Surface Disease Index scores, 18.3% (95% confidence interval 15.9-20.6) had dry eye syndrome symptoms. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was significantly higher in women (P = 0.010) and not significantly associated with age (P = 0.291). The objective dry eye syndrome signs significantly increased with age. Based on the findings, the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the studied population is in the mid-range. The prevalence is higher in women. Also, objective tests tend to turn abnormal at higher age. Pterygium is associated with dry eye syndrome and increased its symptoms. © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The diagnostic value of narrow-band imaging for early and invasive lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Juanjuan; Li, Wei; Zhou, Jihong; Chen, Yuqing; Zhao, Chenling; Zhang, Ting; Peng, Wenjia; Wang, Xiaojing

2017-07-01

This study aimed to compare the ability of narrow-band imaging to detect early and invasive lung cancer with that of conventional pathological analysis and white-light bronchoscopy. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Sinomed, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases for relevant studies. Meta-disc software was used to perform data analysis, meta-regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and heterogeneity testing, and STATA software was used to determine if publication bias was present, as well as to calculate the relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs those of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer. A random-effects model was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the above modalities in cases in which a high degree of between-study heterogeneity was noted with respect to their diagnostic efficacies. The database search identified six studies including 578 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging were 86% (95% confidence interval: 83-88%) and 81% (95% confidence interval: 77-84%), respectively, and the pooled sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy were 70% (95% confidence interval: 66-74%) and 66% (95% confidence interval: 62-70%), respectively. The pooled relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs the sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer were 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.67) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.42), respectively, and sensitivity analysis showed that narrow-band imaging exhibited good diagnostic efficacy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer and that the results of the study were stable. Narrow-band imaging was superior to white light bronchoscopy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer; however, the specificities of the two modalities did not differ significantly.

Antecedents and neuroimaging patterns in cerebral palsy with epilepsy and cognitive impairment: a population-based study in children born at term.

PubMed

Ahlin, Kristina; Jacobsson, Bo; Nilsson, Staffan; Himmelmann, Kate

2017-07-01

Antecedents of accompanying impairments in cerebral palsy and their relation to neuroimaging patterns need to be explored. A population-based study of 309 children with cerebral palsy born at term between 1983 and 1994. Prepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum variables previously studied as antecedents of cerebral palsy type and motor severity were analyzed in children with cerebral palsy and cognitive impairment and/or epilepsy, and in children with cerebral palsy without these accompanying impairments. Neuroimaging patterns and their relation to identified antecedents were analyzed. Data were retrieved from the cerebral palsy register of western Sweden, and from obstetric and neonatal records. Children with cerebral palsy and accompanying impairments more often had low birthweight (kg) (odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3-0.8), brain maldevelopment known at birth (p = 0.007, odds ratio ∞) and neonatal infection (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.04-28.4). Moreover, neuroimaging patterns of maldevelopment (odds ratio 7.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-17.2), cortical/subcortical lesions (odds ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 2.3-12.2) and basal ganglia lesions (odds ratio 7.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-41.3) were more common, wheras white matter injury was found significantly less often (odds ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.5). In most children with maldevelopment, the intrapartum and postpartum periods were uneventful (p < 0.05). Cerebral maldevelopment was associated with prepartum antecedents, whereas subcortical/cortical and basal ganglia lesions were associated with intrapartum and postpartum antecedents. No additional factor other than those related to motor impairment was associated with epilepsy and cognitive impairment in cerebral palsy. Timing of antecedents deemed important for the development of cerebral palsy with accompanying impairments were supported by neuroimaging patterns. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Breast cancer biology varies by method of detection and may contribute to overdiagnosis.

PubMed

Hayse, Brandon; Hooley, Regina J; Killelea, Brigid K; Horowitz, Nina R; Chagpar, Anees B; Lannin, Donald R

2016-08-01

Recently, it has been suggested that screening mammography may result in some degree of overdiagnosis (ie, detection of breast cancers that would never become clinically important within the lifespan of the patient). The extent and biology of these overdiagnosed cancers, however, is not well understood, and the effect of newer screening modalities on overdiagnosis is unknown. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database of breast cancers diagnosed at the Yale Breast Center from 2004-2014. The mode of initial presentation was categorized into 5 groups: screening mammogram, screening magnetic resonance imaging, screening ultrasonography, self-detected masses, and physician-detected masses. Compared with cancers presenting with masses, cancers detected by image-based screening were more likely to present with ductal carcinoma-in-situ or T1 cancers (P < .001). In addition to a simple stage shift, however, cancers detected by image-based screening were also more likely to be luminal and low-grade cancers; symptomatic cancers were more likely high-grade and triple-negative (P < .001, respectively). On a multivariate analysis, adjusting for age, race, and tumor size, cancers detected by mammogram, US, and magnetic resonance imaging had greater odds of being luminal (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.3; odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-4.7; and odds ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval, 2.1-10.6, respectively), and low-grade (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.9; odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval, 2.7-8.9; and odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval, 2.6-8.1, respectively) compared with cancers presenting with self-detected masses. Screening detects cancers with more indolent biology, potentially contributing to the observed rate of overdiagnosis. With magnetic resonance imaging and US being used more commonly for screening, the rate of overdiagnosis may increase further. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes.

PubMed

Borzych-Duzalka, Dagmara; Aki, T Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A

2017-01-06

Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes

PubMed Central

Aki, T. Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. Results In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Conclusions Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. PMID:27899416

Toxoplasma gondii exposure and epilepsy: A matched case-control study in a public hospital in northern Mexico.

PubMed

Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Rico-Almochantaf, Yazmin Del Rosario; Hernández-Tinoco, Jesús; Quiñones-Canales, Gerardo; Sánchez-Anguiano, Luis Francisco; Torres-González, Jorge; Ramírez-Valles, Eda Guadalupe; Minjarez-Veloz, Andrea

2018-01-01

This study aimed to determine the association between infection with Toxoplasma gondii and epilepsy in patients attended to in a public hospital in the northern Mexican city of Durango. We performed an age- and gender-matched case-control study of 99 patients suffering from epilepsy and 99 without epilepsy. Sera of participants were analyzed for anti- T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies using commercially available enzyme-linked immunoassays. Seropositive samples to T. gondii were further analyzed for detection of T. gondii DNA by polymerase chain reaction. Anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 10 (10.1%) of the 99 cases and in 6 (6.1%) of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.60-4.99; p = 0.43). High (> 150 IU/mL) levels of anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 6 of the 99 cases and in 4 of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval: 0.41-5.60; p = 0.74). Anti- T. gondii IgM antibodies were found in 2 of the 10 IgG seropositive cases, and in 2 of the 6 IgG seropositive controls (odds ratio = 0.50; 95% confidence interval: 0.05-4.97; p = 0.60). T. gondii DNA was not found in any of the 10 anti- T. gondii IgG positive patients. Bivariate analysis of IgG seropositivity to T. gondii and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and related Health Problems, 10th Edition codes of epilepsy showed an association between seropositivity and G40.1 code (odds ratio = 22.0; 95% confidence interval: 2.59-186.5; p = 0.008). Logistic regression analysis showed an association between T. gondii infection and consumption of goat meat (odds ratio = 6.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-34.64; p = 0.02), unwashed raw vegetables (odds ratio = 26.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.61-265.23; p = 0.006), and tobacco use (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-36.66; p = 0.04). Results suggest that T. gondii infection does not increase the risk of epilepsy in our setting; however, infection might be linked to specific types of epilepsy. Factors associated with T. gondii infection found in this study may aid in the design of preventive measures against toxoplasmosis.

Association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and susceptibility to vitiligo: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Silky; Changotra, Harish

2017-01-01

Protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 gene, which translates to lymphoid tyrosine phosphatase, is considered to be a susceptibility gene marker associated with several autoimmune diseases. Several studies have demonstrated the association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo. However, these studies showed conflicting results. Meta-analysis of the same was conducted earlier that included fewer number of publications in their study. We performed a meta-analysis of a total of seven studies consisting of 2094 cases and 3613 controls to evaluate the possible association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C>T polymorphism with vitiligo susceptibility. We conducted a literature search in PubMed, Google Scholar and Dogpile for all published paper on protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and vitiligo risk till June 2016. Data analysis was performed by RevMan 5.3 and comprehensive meta-analysis v3.0 software. Meta-analysis showed an overall significant association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non- receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo in all models (allelic model [T vs. C]: odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [1.32-1.71], P< 0.001; dominant model [TT + CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [1.16-2.24], P = 0.004; recessive model [TT vs. CT + CC]: odds ratio = 4.82, 95% confidence interval [1.11-20.92], P = 0.04; homozygous model [TT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 5.34, 95% confidence interval [1.23-23.24], P = 0.03; co-dominant model [CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.52, 95% confidence interval [1.09-2.13], P = 0.01). No publication bias was detected in the funnel plot study. Limited ethnic-based studies, unable to satisfy data by gender or vitiligo-type are some limitations of the present meta-analysis. Stratifying data by ethnicity showed an association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T with vitiligo in European population (odds ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [1.34-1.75], P< 0.001) but not in Asian population (odds ratio = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [0.26-1.32], P = 0.2). In conclusion, protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858 T allele predisposes European individuals to vitiligo.

A Web Search on Environmental Topics: What Is the Role of Ranking?

PubMed Central

Filisetti, Barbara; Mascaretti, Silvia; Limina, Rosa Maria; Gelatti, Umberto

2013-01-01

Abstract Background: Although the Internet is easy to use, the mechanisms and logic behind a Web search are often unknown. Reliable information can be obtained, but it may not be visible as the Web site is not located in the first positions of search results. The possible risks of adverse health effects arising from environmental hazards are issues of increasing public interest, and therefore the information about these risks, particularly on topics for which there is no scientific evidence, is very crucial. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the presentation of information on some environmental health topics differed among various search engines, assuming that the most reliable information should come from institutional Web sites. Materials and Methods: Five search engines were used: Google, Yahoo!, Bing, Ask, and AOL. The following topics were searched in combination with the word “health”: “nuclear energy,” “electromagnetic waves,” “air pollution,” “waste,” and “radon.” For each topic three key words were used. The first 30 search results for each query were considered. The ranking variability among the search engines and the type of search results were analyzed for each topic and for each key word. The ranking of institutional Web sites was given particular consideration. Results: Variable results were obtained when surfing the Internet on different environmental health topics. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that, when searching for radon and air pollution topics, it is more likely to find institutional Web sites in the first 10 positions compared with nuclear power (odds ratio=3.4, 95% confidence interval 2.1–5.4 and odds ratio=2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.8–4.7, respectively) and also when using Google compared with Bing (odds ratio=3.1, 95% confidence interval 1.9–5.1). Conclusions: The increasing use of online information could play an important role in forming opinions. Web users should become more aware of the importance of finding reliable information, and health institutions should be able to make that information more visible. PMID:24083368

Strain Gauge Balance Uncertainty Analysis at NASA Langley: A Technical Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tripp, John S.

1999-01-01

This paper describes a method to determine the uncertainties of measured forces and moments from multi-component force balances used in wind tunnel tests. A multivariate regression technique is first employed to estimate the uncertainties of the six balance sensitivities and 156 interaction coefficients derived from established balance calibration procedures. These uncertainties are then employed to calculate the uncertainties of force-moment values computed from observed balance output readings obtained during tests. Confidence and prediction intervals are obtained for each computed force and moment as functions of the actual measurands. Techniques are discussed for separate estimation of balance bias and precision uncertainties.

Literacy, race, and PSA level among low-income men newly diagnosed with prostate cancer.

PubMed

Wolf, Michael S; Knight, Sara J; Lyons, E Allison; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramón; Pickard, Simon A; Arseven, Adnan; Arozullah, Ahsan; Colella, Kathleen; Ray, Paul; Bennett, Charles L

2006-07-01

Among men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels are higher and the cancer stage more advanced for African Americans than for whites. An earlier study found that after adjustment for literacy, race was no longer a significant predictor of advanced stage at presentation. We investigated whether, after adjusting for literacy, race was a significant independent predictor of greater PSA levels among men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer. Consecutive patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer from four outpatient care facilities in Chicago were interviewed and given a literacy assessment (n = 308). The PSA level at diagnosis was obtained from the medical charts. Logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of high PSA levels (greater than 20 ng/mL) at presentation. African-American men were three times more likely to have low literacy skills (sixth grade or less: 22.9% versus 7.1%; P <0.001) than were white men. In turn, men with low literacy skills were more than twice as likely to have a PSA level greater than 20 ng/mL at diagnosis (33.3% versus 13.5%; P = 0.009). On multivariate analyses, significant predictors of high PSA levels included low literacy (adjusted odds ratio 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 4.2) and older age (age 65 to 74 years, adjusted odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 2.1 to 3.1 versus older than 74 years, adjusted odds ratio 3.4, 95% confidence interval 1.8 to 6.6), but not African-American race. In the current era in which PSA testing is common, low literacy may be an important and potentially overlooked factor associated with higher PSA levels at prostate cancer diagnosis among African-American and white men.

Likelihood ratio meta-analysis: New motivation and approach for an old method.

PubMed

Dormuth, Colin R; Filion, Kristian B; Platt, Robert W

2016-03-01

A 95% confidence interval (CI) in an updated meta-analysis may not have the expected 95% coverage. If a meta-analysis is simply updated with additional data, then the resulting 95% CI will be wrong because it will not have accounted for the fact that the earlier meta-analysis failed or succeeded to exclude the null. This situation can be avoided by using the likelihood ratio (LR) as a measure of evidence that does not depend on type-1 error. We show how an LR-based approach, first advanced by Goodman, can be used in a meta-analysis to pool data from separate studies to quantitatively assess where the total evidence points. The method works by estimating the log-likelihood ratio (LogLR) function from each study. Those functions are then summed to obtain a combined function, which is then used to retrieve the total effect estimate, and a corresponding 'intrinsic' confidence interval. Using as illustrations the CAPRIE trial of clopidogrel versus aspirin in the prevention of ischemic events, and our own meta-analysis of higher potency statins and the risk of acute kidney injury, we show that the LR-based method yields the same point estimate as the traditional analysis, but with an intrinsic confidence interval that is appropriately wider than the traditional 95% CI. The LR-based method can be used to conduct both fixed effect and random effects meta-analyses, it can be applied to old and new meta-analyses alike, and results can be presented in a format that is familiar to a meta-analytic audience. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incidence of Mastitis in the Neonatal Period in a Traditional Breastfeeding Society: Results of a Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Scott, Jane A.; Lee, Andy H.; Binns, Colin W.

2015-01-01

Abstract Background: Mastitis is a painful problem experienced by breastfeeding women, especially in the first few weeks postpartum. There have been limited studies of the incidence of mastitis from traditionally breastfeeding societies in South Asia. This study investigated the incidence, determinants, and management of mastitis in the first month postpartum, as well as its association with breastfeeding outcomes at 4 and 6 months postpartum, in western Nepal. Subjects and Methods: Subjects were a subsample of 338 mothers participating in a larger prospective cohort study conducted in 2014 in western Nepal. Mothers were interviewed during the first month postpartum and again at 4 and 6 months to obtain information on breastfeeding practices. The association of mastitis and determinant variables was investigated using multivariable logistic regression, and the association with breastfeeding duration was examined using Kaplan–Meier estimation. Results: The incidence of mastitis was 8.0% (95% confidence interval, 5.1%, 10.8%) in the first month postpartum. Prelacteal feeding (adjusted odds ratio = 2.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.03, 7.40) and cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.09, 11.42) were associated with a higher likelihood of mastitis. Kaplan–Meier estimation showed no significant difference in the duration of exclusive breastfeeding among the mothers who experienced an episode of mastitis and those who did not. Conclusions: Roughly one in 10 (8.0%) women experienced mastitis in the first month postpartum, and there appeared to be little effect of mastitis on breastfeeding outcomes. Traditional breastfeeding practices should be encouraged, and the management of mastitis should be included as a part of lactation promotion. PMID:26488802

Diagnostic capability of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography for glaucoma.

PubMed

Wu, Huijuan; de Boer, Johannes F; Chen, Teresa C

2012-05-01

To determine the diagnostic capability of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography in glaucoma patients with visual field defects. Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants were recruited from a university hospital clinic. One eye of 85 normal subjects and 61 glaucoma patients with average visual field mean deviation of -9.61 ± 8.76 dB was selected randomly for the study. A subgroup of the glaucoma patients with early visual field defects was calculated separately. Spectralis optical coherence tomography (Heidelberg Engineering, Inc) circular scans were performed to obtain peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thicknesses. The RNFL diagnostic parameters based on the normative database were used alone or in combination for identifying glaucomatous RNFL thinning. To evaluate diagnostic performance, calculations included areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio. Overall RNFL thickness had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values: 0.952 for all patients and 0.895 for the early glaucoma subgroup. For all patients, the highest sensitivity (98.4%; 95% confidence interval, 96.3% to 100%) was achieved by using 2 criteria: ≥ 1 RNFL sectors being abnormal at the < 5% level and overall classification of borderline or outside normal limits, with specificities of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 84.0% to 94.0%) and 87.1% (95% confidence interval, 81.6% to 92.5%), respectively, for these 2 criteria. Statistical parameters for evaluating the diagnostic performance of the Spectralis spectral-domain optical coherence tomography were good for early perimetric glaucoma and were excellent for moderately advanced perimetric glaucoma. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dolichoectasia and Small Vessel Disease in Young Patients With Transient Ischemic Attack and Stroke.

PubMed

Thijs, Vincent; Grittner, Ulrike; Fazekas, Franz; McCabe, Dominick J H; Giese, Anne-Katrin; Kessler, Christof; Martus, Peter; Norrving, Bo; Ringelstein, Erich Bernd; Schmidt, Reinhold; Tanislav, Christian; Putaala, Jukka; Tatlisumak, Turgut; von Sarnowski, Bettina; Rolfs, Arndt; Enzinger, Christian

2017-09-01

We evaluated whether basilar dolichoectasia is associated with markers of cerebral small vessel disease in younger transient ischemic attack and ischemic stroke patients. We used data from the SIFAP1 study (Stroke in Young Fabry Patients), a large prospective, hospital-based, screening study for Fabry disease in young (<55 years) transient ischemic attack/stroke patients in whom detailed clinical data and brain MRI were obtained, and stroke subtyping with TOAST classification (Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) was performed. Dolichoectasia was found in 508 of 3850 (13.2%) of patients. Dolichoectasia was associated with older age (odds ratio per decade, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.44), male sex (odds ratio, 1.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.59-2.42), and hypertension (odds ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.70). Dolichoectasia was more common in patients with small infarctions (33.9% versus 29.8% for acute lesions, P =0.065; 29.1% versus 16.5% for old lesions, P <0.001), infarct location in the brain stem (12.4% versus 6.9%, P <0.001), and in white matter (27.8% versus 21.1%, P =0.001). Microbleeds (16.3% versus 4.7%, P =0.001), higher grades of white matter hyperintensities ( P <0.001), and small vessel disease subtype (18.1% versus 12.4%, overall P for differences in TOAST ( P =0.018) were more often present in patients with dolichoectasia. Dolichoectasia is associated with imaging markers of small vessel disease and brain stem localization of acute and old infarcts in younger patients with transient ischemic attack and ischemic stroke. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00414583. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Is it possible to identify a risk factor condition of hypocalcemia in patients candidates to thyroidectomy for benign disease?

PubMed

Del Rio, Paolo; Iapichino, Gioacchino; De Simone, Belinda; Bezer, Lamia; Arcuri, MariaFrancesca; Sianesi, Mario

2010-01-01

Hypocalcaemia is the most frequent complication after total thyroidectomy. The incidence of postoperative hypocalcaemia is reported with different percentages in literature. We report 227 patients undergoing surgery for benign thyroid disease. After obtaining patient's informed consent, we collected and analyzed prospectively the following data: calcium serum levels pre and postoperative in the first 24 hours after surgery according to sex, age, duration of surgery, number of parathyroids identified by the surgeon, surgical technique (open and minimally invasive video-assisted thyroidectomy, i.e., MIVAT). We have considered cases treated consecutively from the same two experienced endocrine surgeons. Hypocalcaemia is assumed when the value of serum calcium is below 7.5 mg/dL. Pre-and post-operative mean serum calcium, with confidence intervals at 99% divided by sex, revealed a statistically significant difference in the ANOVA test (p < 0.01) in terms of incidence. Female sex has higher incidence of hypocalcemia. The evaluation of the mean serum calcium in pre-and post-operative period, with confidence intervals at 95%, depending on the number of identified parathyroid glands by surgeon, showed that the result is not correlated with values of postoperative serum calcium. Age and pre-and postoperative serum calcium values with confidence intervals at 99% based on sex of patients, didn't show statistically significant differences. We haven't highlighted a significant difference in postoperative hypocalcemia in patients treated with conventional thyroidectomy versus MIVAT. A difference in pre- and postoperative mean serum calcium occurs in all patients surgically treated. The only statistical meaningful risk factor for hypocalcemia has been the female sex.

Health effects of the September 2009 dust storm in Sydney, Australia: did emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase?

PubMed

Merrifield, Alistair; Schindeler, Suzanne; Jalaludin, Bin; Smith, Wayne

2013-04-16

During September 2009, a large dust storm was experienced in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Extremely high levels of particulate matter were recorded, with daily average levels of coarse matter (<10 μm) peaking over 11,000 μg/m3 and fine (<2.5 μm) over 1,600 μg/m3. We conducted an analysis to determine whether the dust storm was associated with increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory and asthma-related emergency department presentations and hospital admissions. We used distributed-lag Poisson generalized models to analyse the emergency department presentations and hospital admissions adjusted for pollutants, humidity, temperature and day of week and seasonal effects to obtain estimates of relative risks associated with the dust storm. The dust storm period was associated with large increases in asthma emergency department visits (relative risk 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.38, p < 0.01), and to a lesser extent, all emergency department visits (relative risk 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.06, p < 0.01) and respiratory emergency department visits (relative risk 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.26, p < 0.01). There was no significant increase in cardiovascular emergency department visits (p = 0.09) or hospital admissions for any reason. Age-specific analyses showed the dust storm was associated with increases in all-cause and respiratory emergency department visits in the ≥65 year age group; the ≤5 year group had higher risks of all-cause, respiratory and asthma-related emergency department presentations. We recommend public health measures, especially targeting asthmatics, should be implemented during future dust storm events.

Incidence of myocardial infarction with shifts to and from daylight savings time.

PubMed

Jiddou, Monica R; Pica, Mark; Boura, Judy; Qu, Lihua; Franklin, Barry A

2013-03-01

Modulators of normal bodily functions such as the duration and quality of sleep might transiently influence cardiovascular risk. The transition to daylight savings time (DST) has been associated with a short-term increased incidence ratio (IR) of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The present retrospective study examined the IR of AMIs that presented to our hospitals the week after DST and after the autumn switch to standard time, October 2006 to April 2012, with specific reference to the AMI type. Our study population (n = 935 patients; 59% men, 41% women) was obtained from the electronic medical records of the Royal Oak and Troy campuses of the Beaumont Hospitals in Michigan. Overall, the frequency of AMI was similar in the spring and autumn, 463 (49.5%) and 472 (50.5%), respectively. The IR for the first week after the spring shift was 1.17 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.36). After the transition from DST in the autumn, the IR for the same period was lower, but not significantly different, 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.16). Nevertheless, the greatest increase in AMI occurred on the first day (Sunday) after the spring shift to DST (1.71, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 2.02; p <0.05). Also, a significantly greater incidence was found of non-ST-segment myocardial infarction after the transition to DST in the study group compared with that in the control group (p = 0.022). In conclusion, these data suggest that shifts to and from DST might transiently affect the incidence and type of acute cardiac events, albeit modestly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Common y-intercept and single compound regressions of gas-particle partitioning data vs 1/T

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankow, James F.

Confidence intervals are placed around the log Kp vs 1/ T correlation equations obtained using simple linear regressions (SLR) with the gas-particle partitioning data set of Yamasaki et al. [(1982) Env. Sci. Technol.16, 189-194]. The compounds and groups of compounds studied include the polycylic aromatic hydrocarbons phenanthrene + anthracene, me-phenanthrene + me-anthracene, fluoranthene, pyrene, benzo[ a]fluorene + benzo[ b]fluorene, chrysene + benz[ a]anthracene + triphenylene, benzo[ b]fluoranthene + benzo[ k]fluoranthene, and benzo[ a]pyrene + benzo[ e]pyrene (note: me = methyl). For any given compound, at equilibrium, the partition coefficient Kp equals ( F/ TSP)/ A where F is the particulate-matter associated concentration (ng m -3), A is the gas-phase concentration (ng m -3), and TSP is the concentration of particulate matter (μg m -3). At temperatures more than 10°C from the mean sampling temperature of 17°C, the confidence intervals are quite wide. Since theory predicts that similar compounds sorbing on the same particulate matter should possess very similar y-intercepts, the data set was also fitted using a special common y-intercept regression (CYIR). For most of the compounds, the CYIR equations fell inside of the SLR 95% confidence intervals. The CYIR y-intercept value is -18.48, and is reasonably close to the type of value that can be predicted for PAH compounds. The set of CYIR regression equations is probably more reliable than the set of SLR equations. For example, the CYIR-derived desorption enthalpies are much more highly correlated with vaporization enthalpies than are the SLR-derived desorption enthalpies. It is recommended that the CYIR approach be considered whenever analysing temperature-dependent gas-particle partitioning data.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: MR imaging of liver proton density fat fraction to assess hepatic steatosis.

PubMed

Tang, An; Tan, Justin; Sun, Mark; Hamilton, Gavin; Bydder, Mark; Wolfson, Tanya; Gamst, Anthony C; Middleton, Michael; Brunt, Elizabeth M; Loomba, Rohit; Lavine, Joel E; Schwimmer, Jeffrey B; Sirlin, Claude B

2013-05-01

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging-estimated proton density fat fraction (PDFF) for assessing hepatic steatosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) by using centrally scored histopathologic validation as the reference standard. This prospectively designed, cross-sectional, internal review board-approved, HIPAA-compliant study was conducted in 77 patients who had NAFLD and liver biopsy. MR imaging-PDFF was estimated from magnitude-based low flip angle multiecho gradient-recalled echo images after T2* correction and multifrequency fat modeling. Histopathologic scoring was obtained by consensus of the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) Clinical Research Network Pathology Committee. Spearman correlation, additivity and variance stabilization for regression for exploring the effect of a number of potential confounders, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed. Liver MR imaging-PDFF was systematically higher, with higher histologic steatosis grade (P < .001), and was significantly correlated with histologic steatosis grade (ρ = 0.69, P < .001). The correlation was not confounded by age, sex, lobular inflammation, hepatocellular ballooning, NASH diagnosis, fibrosis, or magnetic field strength (P = .65). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves was 0.989 (95% confidence interval: 0.968, 1.000) for distinguishing patients with steatosis grade 0 (n = 5) from those with grade 1 or higher (n = 72), 0.825 (95% confidence interval: 0.734, 0.915) to distinguish those with grade 1 or lower (n = 31) from those with grade 2 or higher (n = 46), and 0.893 (95% confidence interval: 0.809, 0.977) to distinguish those with grade 2 or lower (n = 58) from those with grade 3 (n = 19). MR imaging-PDFF showed promise for assessment of hepatic steatosis grade in patients with NAFLD. For validation, further studies with larger sample sizes are needed. © RSNA, 2013.

Association between Lithium Use and Melanoma Risk and Mortality: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Asgari, Maryam M; Chien, Andy J; Tsai, Ai Lin; Fireman, Bruce; Quesenberry, Charles P

2017-10-01

Laboratory studies show that lithium, an activator of the Wnt/ß-catenin signaling pathway, slows melanoma progression, but to our knowledge no published epidemiologic studies have explored this association. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult white Kaiser Permanente Northern California members (n = 2,213,848) from 1997-2012 to examine the association between lithium use and melanoma risk. Lithium exposure (n = 11,317) was assessed from pharmacy databases, serum lithium levels were obtained from electronic laboratory databases, and incident cutaneous melanomas (n = 14,056) were identified from an established cancer registry. In addition to examining melanoma incidence, melanoma hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for lithium exposure were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for potential confounders. Melanoma incidence per 100,000 person-years among lithium-exposed individuals was 67.4, compared with 92.5 in unexposed individuals (P = 0.027). Lithium-exposed individuals had a 32% lower risk of melanoma (hazard ratio = 0.68, 95% confidence interval = 0.51-0.90) in unadjusted analysis, but the estimate was attenuated and nonsignificant in adjusted analysis (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.77, 95% confidence interval = 0.58-1.02). No lithium-exposed individuals presented with thick (>4 mm) or advanced-stage melanoma at diagnosis. Among melanoma patients, lithium-exposed individuals were less likely to suffer melanoma-associated mortality (rate = 4.68/1,000 person-years) compared with the unexposed (rate = 7.21/1,000 person-years). Our findings suggest that lithium may reduce melanoma risk and associated mortality. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Drugs use in pregnancy in the Valencia Region and the risk of congenital anomalies].

PubMed

Cavero-Carbonell, Clara; Gimeno-Martos, Silvia; Páramo-Rodríguez, Lucía; Rabanaque-Hernández, María José; Martos-Jiménez, Carmen; Zurriaga, Óscar

2017-09-01

Despite the potential risks of drug use during pregnancy, consumption has increased in recent decades. To identify the risk of congenital anomalies (CA) associated with the use of drugs in primary care in pregnant women residents in the Valencia Region. A case-control study, considering a case as a less than one year old live birth in 2009-2010, diagnosed with a CA and resident in the Valencia Region, obtained from the CA population-based registry. Controls were selected from the Metabolic Disease Registry, and the drugs prescribed and dispensed from the Integral Management of Pharmaceutical Services. Crude odds ratio (OR) was calculated with its 95% confidence intervals and adjusted OR was calculated using logistic regression. A total of 1,913 cases and 3,826 controls were identified. The most frequently used drug groups were those acting on the musculoskeletal, nervous and respiratory systems, on the blood and blood forming organs, and anti-infection drugs. The most common drugs used were ibuprofen, dexketoprofen, paracetamol, amoxicillin, ferrous sulphate, and a combination of folic acid. A significantly increased risk of CA was identified for drugs acting on the musculoskeletal system (adjusted OR 1.14 [95% confidence interval 1.02-1.28]). A significantly decreased risk was observed for drugs acting on the blood and blood forming organs (adjusted OR 0.87 [95% confidence interval 0.78-0.98]). Associations between drugs and CA in pregnant women resident in the Valencia Region have been identified for drugs that act as risk factors of CA, and for drugs that act as protective factors of CA. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Mass drug administration and the sustainable control of schistosomiasis: Community health workers are vital for global elimination efforts.

PubMed

Inobaya, Marianette T; Chau, Thao N; Ng, Shu-Kay; MacDougall, Colin; Olveda, Remigio M; Tallo, Veronica L; Landicho, Jhoys M; Malacad, Carol M; Aligato, Mila F; Guevarra, Jerric R; Ross, Allen G

2018-01-01

Schistosomiasis control is centred on preventive chemotherapy through mass drug administration (MDA). However, endemic countries continue to struggle to attain target coverage rates and patient compliance. In the Philippines, barangay health workers (BHWs) play a vital role in the coordination of MDA, acting as advocates, implementers, and educators. The aim of this study was to determine whether BHW knowledge and attitudes towards schistosomiasis and MDA is sufficient and correlated with resident knowledge and drug compliance. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2015 among 2186 residents and 224 BHWs in the province of Northern Samar, the Philippines using a structured survey questionnaire. BHWs showed good familiarity on how schistosomiasis is acquired and diagnosed. Nevertheless, both BHWs and residents had poor awareness of the signs and symptoms of schistosomiasis, disease prevention, and treatment options. There was no correlation between the knowledge scores of the BHWs and the residents (r=0.080, p=0.722). Kruskal-Wallis analysis revealed significant differences in BHW knowledge scores between the low (3.29, 95% confidence interval 3.16-3.36), moderate (3.61, 95% confidence interval 3.49-3.69), and high (4.05, 95% confidence interval 3.77-4.13) compliance village groups (p=0.002), with the high compliance areas having the highest mean knowledge scores. This study highlights the importance of community health workers in obtaining the World Health Organization drug coverage rate of 75% and improving compliance with MDA in the community. Investing in the education of community health workers with appropriate disease-specific training is crucial if disease elimination is ultimately to be achieved. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Substitution of Linoleic Acid for Other Macronutrients and the Risk of Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Venø, Stine K; Schmidt, Erik B; Jakobsen, Marianne U; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Bach, Flemming W; Overvad, Kim

2017-12-01

Ischemic stroke is a major health problem worldwide, but the influence of dietary factors on stroke risk is not well known. This study aimed to investigate the risk of ischemic stroke and its subtypes with a higher intake from linoleic acid and a concomitant lower intake from saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, or glycemic carbohydrates. In the Danish prospective Diet, Cancer, and Health Study of 57 053 participants aged 50 to 64 years at baseline, information on diet was collected using a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Information on ischemic stroke was obtained from the Danish National Patient Register, and cases were all validated and subclassified according to the TOAST (Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) classification. Substitution of linoleic acid for saturated fatty acid, monounsaturated fatty acid, or glycemic carbohydrates was investigated in relation to the risk of ischemic stroke and subtypes. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the associations with ischemic stroke adjusting for appropriate confounders. During 13.5 years of follow-up 1879 participants developed ischemic stroke. A slightly lower risk of ischemic stroke was found with a 5% higher intake of linoleic acid and a concomitant lower intake of saturated fatty acid (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.16), monounsaturated fatty acid (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-1.02), and glycemic carbohydrates (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.09), although not statistically significant. Similar patterns of association were found for large-artery atherosclerosis and small-vessel occlusions. This study suggests that replacing saturated fatty acid, glycemic carbohydrate, or monounsaturated fatty acid with linoleic acid may be associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Cost Implications of Less Tight Versus Tight Control of Hypertension in Pregnancy (CHIPS Trial).

PubMed

Ahmed, Rashid J; Gafni, Amiram; Hutton, Eileen K; Hu, Zheng Jing; Pullenayegum, Eleanor; von Dadelszen, Peter; Rey, Evelyne; Ross, Susan; Asztalos, Elizabeth; Murphy, Kellie E; Menzies, Jennifer; Sanchez, J Johanna; Ganzevoort, Wessel; Helewa, Michael; Lee, Shoo K; Lee, Terry; Logan, Alexander G; Moutquin, Jean-Marie; Singer, Joel; Thornton, Jim G; Welch, Ross; Magee, Laura A

2016-10-01

The CHIPS randomized controlled trial (Control of Hypertension in Pregnancy Study) found no difference in the primary perinatal or secondary maternal outcomes between planned "less tight" (target diastolic 100 mm Hg) and "tight" (target diastolic 85 mm Hg) blood pressure management strategies among women with chronic or gestational hypertension. This study examined which of these management strategies is more or less costly from a third-party payer perspective. A total of 981 women with singleton pregnancies and nonsevere, nonproteinuric chronic or gestational hypertension were randomized at 14 to 33 weeks to less tight or tight control. Resources used were collected from 94 centers in 15 countries and costed as if the trial took place in each of 3 Canadian provinces as a cost-sensitivity analysis. Eleven hospital ward and 24 health service costs were obtained from a similar trial and provincial government health insurance schedules of medical benefits. The mean total cost per woman-infant dyad was higher in less tight versus tight control, but the difference in mean total cost (DM) was not statistically significant in any province: Ontario ($30 191.62 versus $24 469.06; DM $5723, 95% confidence interval, -$296 to $12 272; P=0.0725); British Columbia ($30 593.69 versus $24 776.51; DM $5817; 95% confidence interval, -$385 to $12 349; P=0.0725); or Alberta ($31 510.72 versus $25 510.49; DM $6000.23; 95% confidence interval, -$154 to $12 781; P=0.0637). Tight control may benefit women without increasing risk to neonates (as shown in the main CHIPS trial), without additional (and possibly lower) cost to the healthcare system. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01192412. © 2016 The Authors.

Effect of Opuntia ficus indica on symptoms of the alcohol hangover.

PubMed

Wiese, Jeff; McPherson, Steve; Odden, Michelle C; Shlipak, Michael G

2004-06-28

The severity of the alcohol hangover may be related to inflammation induced by impurities in the alcohol beverage and byproducts of alcohol metabolism. An extract of the Opuntia ficus indica (OFI) plant diminishes the inflammatory response to stressful stimuli. In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover trial, 64 healthy, young adult volunteers were randomly assigned to receive OFI (1600 IU) and identical placebo, given 5 hours before alcohol consumption. During 4 hours, subjects consumed up to 1.75 g of alcohol per kilogram of body weight. Hangover severity (9 symptoms) and overall well-being were assessed on a scale (0-6), and blood and urine samples were obtained the following morning. Two weeks later, the study protocol was repeated with OFI and placebo reversed. Fifty-five subjects completed both the OFI and placebo arms of the study. Three of the 9 symptoms-nausea, dry mouth, and anorexia-were significantly reduced by OFI (all P<.05). Overall, the symptom index was reduced by 2.7 points on average (95% confidence interval, -0.2 to 5.5; P =.07), and the risk of a severe hangover (>/=18 points) was reduced by half (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.88; P =.02). C-reactive protein levels were strongly associated with hangover severity; the mean symptom index was 4.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.2-7.1; P =.007) higher in subjects with morning C-reactive protein levels greater than 1.0 mg/L. In addition, C-reactive protein levels were 40% higher after subjects consumed placebo compared with OFI. The symptoms of the alcohol hangover are largely due to the activation of inflammation. An extract of the OFI plant has a moderate effect on reducing hangover symptoms, apparently by inhibiting the production of inflammatory mediators.

Health effects of the September 2009 dust storm in Sydney, Australia: did emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase?

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background During September 2009, a large dust storm was experienced in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Extremely high levels of particulate matter were recorded, with daily average levels of coarse matter (<10 μm) peaking over 11,000 μg/m3 and fine (<2.5 μm) over 1,600 μg/m3. We conducted an analysis to determine whether the dust storm was associated with increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory and asthma-related emergency department presentations and hospital admissions. Methods We used distributed-lag Poisson generalized models to analyse the emergency department presentations and hospital admissions adjusted for pollutants, humidity, temperature and day of week and seasonal effects to obtain estimates of relative risks associated with the dust storm. Results The dust storm period was associated with large increases in asthma emergency department visits (relative risk 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.38, p < 0.01), and to a lesser extent, all emergency department visits (relative risk 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.06, p < 0.01) and respiratory emergency department visits (relative risk 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.26, p < 0.01). There was no significant increase in cardiovascular emergency department visits (p = 0.09) or hospital admissions for any reason. Age-specific analyses showed the dust storm was associated with increases in all-cause and respiratory emergency department visits in the ≥65 year age group; the ≤5 year group had higher risks of all-cause, respiratory and asthma-related emergency department presentations. Conclusions We recommend public health measures, especially targeting asthmatics, should be implemented during future dust storm events. PMID:23587335

Exercise in pregnancy: an association with placental weight?

PubMed

Hilde, Gunvor; Eskild, Anne; Owe, Katrine Mari; Bø, Kari; Bjelland, Elisabeth K

2017-02-01

Women with high levels of physical exercise have an increased demand for oxygen and nutrients. Thus, in pregnancies of women with high levels of exercise, it is conceivable that the supply of oxygen and nutrients to the placenta is suboptimal, and growth could be impaired. The objective was to study the association of frequency of exercise during pregnancy with placental weight and placental to birthweight ratio. This was a prospective study of 80,515 singleton pregnancies in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. Frequency of exercise was self-reported by a questionnaire at pregnancy weeks 17 and 30. Information on placental weight and birthweight was obtained by linkage to the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. Placental weight decreased with increasing frequency of exercise (tests for trend, P < .001). For nonexercisers in pregnancy week 17, the crude mean placental weight was 686.1 g compared with 667.3 g in women exercising ≥6 times weekly (difference, 18.8 g; 95% confidence interval, 12.0-25.5). Likewise, in nonexercisers in pregnancy week 30, crude mean placental weight was 684.9 g compared with 661.6 g in women exercising ≥6 times weekly (difference, 23.3 g; 95% confidence interval, 14.9-31.6). The largest difference in crude mean placental weight was seen between nonexercisers at both time points and women exercising ≥6 times weekly at both time points (difference, 31.7 g; 95% confidence interval, 19.2-44.2). Frequency of exercise was not associated with placental to birthweight ratio. We found decreasing placental weight with increasing frequency of exercise in pregnancy. The difference in placental weight between nonexercisers and women with exercising ≥6 times weekly was small and may have no clinical implications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integral field spectroscopy of the low-mass companion HD 984 B with the Gemini Planet Imager

DOE PAGES

Johnson-Groh, Mara; Marois, Christian; De Rosa, Robert J.; ...

2017-03-31

We present new observations of the low-mass companion to HD 984 taken with the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) as a part of the GPI Exoplanet Survey campaign. Images of HD 984 B were obtained in the J (1.12–1.3 μm) and H (1.50–1.80 μm) bands. Combined with archival epochs from 2012 and 2014, we fit the first orbit to the companion to find an 18 au (70-year) orbit with a 68% confidence interval between 14 and 28 au, an eccentricity of 0.18 with a 68% confidence interval between 0.05 and 0.47, and an inclination of 119° with a 68% confidence interval between 114° and 125°. To address the considerable spectral covariance in both spectra, we present a method of splitting the spectra into low and high frequencies to analyze the spectral structure at different spatial frequencies with the proper spectral noise correlation. Using the split spectra, we compare them to known spectral types using field brown dwarf and low-mass star spectra and find a best-fit match of a field gravity M6.5 ± 1.5 spectral type with a corresponding temperature ofmore » $${2730}_{-180}^{+120}$$ K. Photometry of the companion yields a luminosity of $$\\mathrm{log}({L}_{\\mathrm{bol}}$$/$${L}_{\\odot })=-2.88\\pm 0.07$$ dex with DUSTY models. Mass estimates, again from DUSTY models, find an age-dependent mass of 34 ± 1 to 95 ± 4 M Jup. Lastly, these results are consistent with previous measurements of the object.« less

Post-nuclear disaster evacuation and survival amongst elderly people in Fukushima: A comparative analysis between evacuees and non-evacuees.

PubMed

Nomura, Shuhei; Blangiardo, Marta; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nishikawa, Yoshitaka; Gilmour, Stuart; Kami, Masahiro; Hodgson, Susan

2016-01-01

Considering the health impacts of evacuation is fundamental to disaster planning especially for vulnerable elderly populations; however, evacuation-related mortality risks have not been well-investigated. We conducted an analysis to compare survival of evacuated and non-evacuated residents of elderly care facilities, following the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant incident on 11th March 2011. To assess associations between evacuation and mortality after the Fukushima nuclear incident; and to present discussion points on disaster planning, with reference to vulnerable elderly populations. The study population comprised 1,215 residents admitted to seven elderly care facilities located 20-40km from the nuclear plant in the five years before the incident. Demographic and clinical characteristics were obtained from medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until mid 2013. Main outcome measures are hazard ratios in evacuees versus non-evacuees using random-effects Cox proportional hazards models, and pre- and post-disaster survival probabilities and relative mortality incidence. Experiencing the disasters did not have a significant influence on mortality (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.43). Evacuation was associated with 1.82 times higher mortality (95% confidence interval: 1.22-2.70) after adjusting for confounders, with the initial evacuation from the original facility associated with 3.37 times higher mortality risk (95% confidence interval: 1.66-6.81) than non evacuation. The government should consider updating its requirements for emergency planning for elderly facilities and ensure that, in a disaster setting, these facilities have the capacity and support to shelter in place for at least sufficient time to adequately prepare initial evacuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of repeated gas sterilization on closure rates of ameroid ring constrictors in vitro.

PubMed

Kimberlin, William W; Wardlaw, Jennifer L; Madsen, Richard W

2016-01-01

To determine the effect of repeated gas sterilization on rate of closure of ameroid ring constrictors in vitro. Twenty-four 3.5-mm ameroid ring constrictors. Ameroid ring constrictors were allocated to 1 of 4 treatment groups (6/group) to undergo gas sterilization 0, 1, 5, or 10 times. After sterilization, constrictors were incubated in canine plasma at a protein concentration of 3 g/dL for 27 days. A digital camera was used to obtain images of the constrictors prior to and at various points during incubation, and lumen diameter was measured. Mean ± SD percentage of lumen closure for all groups of ameroid ring constrictors combined was 85.2 ± 1.6% at day 0 (prior to plasma incubation) and 95.4 ± 0.8% at day 27. Mean lumen area was 3.64 ± 0.43 mm(2) (95% confidence interval, 2.67 to 4.77 mm(2)) at day 0 and 1.32 ± 0.25 mm(2) (95% confidence interval, 0.76 to 2.04 mm(2)) at day 27. None of the ameroid ring constrictors had closed completely by day 27. Overall closure rates for ameroid ring constrictors appeared to be unaffected by repeated gas sterilization up to 10 times. Findings suggested that veterinary surgeons can resterilize ameroid ring constrictors up to 10 times with confidence that ring properties would remain suitable for clinical use.

Characterization of Myocardial Repolarization Reserve in Adolescent Females With Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

Padfield, Gareth J; Escudero, Carolina A; DeSouza, Astrid M; Steinberg, Christian; Gibbs, Karen; Puyat, Joseph H; Lam, Pei Yoong; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Sherwin, Elizabeth; Potts, James E; Sandor, George; Krahn, Andrew D

2016-02-09

Patients with anorexia nervosa exhibit abnormal myocardial repolarization and are susceptible to sudden cardiac death. Exercise testing is useful in unmasking QT prolongation in disorders associated with abnormal repolarization. We characterized QT adaptation during exercise in anorexia. Sixty-one adolescent female patients with anorexia nervosa and 45 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers performed symptom-limited cycle ergometry during 12-lead ECG monitoring. Changes in the QT interval during exercise were measured, and QT/RR-interval slopes were determined by using mixed-effects regression modeling. Patients had significantly lower body mass index than controls; however, resting heart rates and QT/QTc intervals were similar at baseline. Patients had shorter exercise times (13.7±4.5 versus 20.6±4.5 minutes; P<0.001) and lower peak heart rates (159±20 versus 184±9 beats/min; P<0.001). The mean QTc intervals were longer at peak exercise in patients (442±29 versus 422±19 ms; P<0.001). During submaximal exertion at comparable heart rates (114±6 versus 115±11 beats/min; P=0.54), the QTc interval had prolonged significantly more in patients than controls (37±28 versus 24±25 ms; P<0.016). The RR/QT slope, best described by a curvilinear relationship, was more gradual in patients than in controls (13.4; 95% confidence interval, 12.8-13.9 versus 15.8; 95% confidence interval, 15.3-16.4 ms QT change per 10% change in RR interval; P<0.001) and steepest in patients within the highest body mass index tertile versus the lowest (13.9; 95% confidence interval, 12.9-14.9 versus 12.3; 95% confidence interval, 11.3-13.3; P=0.026). Despite the absence of manifest QT prolongation, adolescent anorexic females have impaired repolarization reserve in comparison with healthy controls. Further study may identify impaired QT dynamics as a risk factor for arrhythmias in anorexia nervosa. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz

2013-01-01

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…

SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurdugul, Halil

2009-01-01

This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2017-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

Using Landsat data to estimate evapotranspiration of winter wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanemasu, E. T.; Heilman, J. L.; Bagley, J. O.; Powers, W. L.

1977-01-01

Results obtained from an evapotranspiration model as applied to Kansas winter wheatfields were compared with results determined by a weighing lysimeter, and the standard deviation was found to be less than 0.5 mm/day (however, the 95% confidence interval was between plus and minus 0.2 mm/day). Model inputs are solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, and leaf area index; an equation was developed to estimate the leaf area index from Landsat data. The model provides estimates of transpiration, evaporation, and soil moisture.

Unit Hydrograph Peaking Analysis for Goose Creek Watershed in Virginia: A Case Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-01

increment would not exceed 1.5 times the designed unit peak. The purpose of this study is to analyze the validity of this UHPF range of the Goose...confidence interval precipitation depths to the watershed in addition to the 50% value. This study concluded that a design event with a return period greater...In this study , the physically based GSSHA model was deployed to obtain corresponding design discharge from probable rainfall events. 3.2.1 GSSHA

Frequency of depression in type 2 diabetes mellitus and an analysis of predictive factors.

PubMed

Arshad, Abdul Rehman; Alvi, Kamran Yousaf

2016-04-01

To determine frequency of depression in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and to identify predictive factors. The observational study was carried out at 1 Mountain Medical Battalion, Bagh, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan, from June 2013 to May 2014, and comprised type 2 diabetic patients who were not using anti-depressants and did not have history of other psychiatric illnesses. Demographic data, duration of diabetes, presence of hypertension and type of treatment were recorded and body mass index was calculated. Patient Health Questionnaire-9, translated into Urdu, was administered during face-to-face interviews. Scores >5 indicated depression, which was classified into different grades of severity using standard cut-off values. Of the 133 patients, 51(38.35%) were depressed. Depression was mild in 34(26%), moderate in 12(9.6%), moderately severe in 4(2.9%) and severe in 1(0.7%) patient. On univariate binary logistic regression, female gender (odds ratio=3.07; 95% confidence interval = 1.43, 6.59), lesser education (odds ratio = 0.90; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 0.97) shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.80, 0.96) and higher body mass index (odds ratio=1.41; 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.25) were significantly associated with depression. Only shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.90; 95% confidence interval = 0.82, 0.99) remained significant after adjustment for confounders. Age, level of education, glycaemic control and type of treatment did not predict depression. A significant proportion of type 2 diabetics were depressed. Shorter duration of diabetes reliably predicted depression in these patients.

EXACT DISTRIBUTIONS OF INTRACLASS CORRELATION AND CRONBACH'S ALPHA WITH GAUSSIAN DATA AND GENERAL COVARIANCE.

PubMed

Kistner, Emily O; Muller, Keith E

2004-09-01

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact results allow calculating the exact distribution function and other properties of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha, for Gaussian data with any covariance pattern, not just compound symmetry. Probabilities are computed in terms of the distribution function of a weighted sum of independent chi-square random variables. New F approximations for the distribution functions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are much simpler and faster to compute than the exact forms. Assuming the covariance matrix is known, the approximations typically provide sufficient accuracy, even with as few as ten observations. Either the exact or approximate distributions may be used to create confidence intervals around an estimate of reliability. Monte Carlo simulations led to a number of conclusions. Correctly assuming that the covariance matrix is compound symmetric leads to accurate confidence intervals, as was expected from previously known results. However, assuming and estimating a general covariance matrix produces somewhat optimistically narrow confidence intervals with 10 observations. Increasing sample size to 100 gives essentially unbiased coverage. Incorrectly assuming compound symmetry leads to pessimistically large confidence intervals, with pessimism increasing with sample size. In contrast, incorrectly assuming general covariance introduces only a modest optimistic bias in small samples. Hence the new methods seem preferable for creating confidence intervals, except when compound symmetry definitely holds.

A prospective observational cohort study to assess the incidence of acute otitis media among children 0-5 years of age in Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Lanzieri, Tatiana M; Cunha, Clóvis Arns da; Cunha, Rejane B; Arguello, D Fermin; Devadiga, Raghavendra; Sanchez, Nervo; Barria, Eduardo Ortega

To estimate acute otitis media incidence among young children and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers in a southern Brazilian city. Prospective cohort study including children 0-5 years of age registered at a private pediatric practice. Acute otitis media episodes diagnosed by a pediatrician and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers were assessed during a 12-month follow-up. During September 2008-March 2010, of 1,136 children enrolled in the study, 1074 (95%) were followed: 55.0% were ≤2 years of age, 52.3% males, 94.7% white, and 69.2% had previously received pneumococcal vaccine in private clinics. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 95.7 (95% confidence interval: 77.2-117.4) overall, 105.5 (95% confidence interval: 78.3-139.0) in children ≤2 years of age and 63.6 (95% confidence interval: 43.2-90.3) in children 3-5 years of age. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 86.3 (95% confidence interval: 65.5-111.5) and 117.1 (95% confidence interval: 80.1-165.3) among vaccinated and unvaccinated children, respectively. Nearly 68.9% of parents reported worsening of their overall quality of life. Acute otitis media incidence among unvaccinated children in our study may be useful as baseline data to assess impact of pneumococcal vaccine introduction in the Brazilian National Immunization Program in April 2010. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for gametocyte carriage in uncomplicated falciparum malaria in children before and after artemisinin-based combination treatments.

PubMed

Sowunmi, Akintunde; Okuboyejo, Titilope M; Gbotosho, Grace O; Happi, Christian T

2011-01-01

Artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) are the recommended first-line antimalarials globally, but their influence on the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage has had little evaluation in endemic areas. The risk factors associated with gametocytaemia at presentation and after ACTs were evaluated in 835 children assigned to artesunate, artesunate-amodiaquine, artesunate-mefloquine or artemether-lumefantrine. Gametocyte carriage at enrolment was 8.4%. During follow-up, 24 patients (2.8%) developed gametocytaemia, which in 83% (20 patients) had developed by day 7 following treatment. In a multiple regression model, 2 factors were independent risk factors for the presence of gametocytaemia at enrolment, namely age <3 years (adjusted odds ratio 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01-4.05; p = 0.04) and enrolment before 2009 (adjusted odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 2.09-8.44; p < 0.001). Haematocrit <25% and parasitaemia <50,000/μl blood were associated with an increased risk of gametocytaemia. Following treatment, 3 factors were independent risk factors for gametocytaemia, namely gametocytaemia at enrolment (adjusted odds ratio 46.39, 95% confidence interval 22.3-96.46; p < 0.0001) and treatment with artesunate (adjusted odds ratio 6.74, 95% confidence interval 1.79-25.27; p = 0.005) or artesunate-mefloquine (adjusted odds ratio 9.66, 95% confidence interval 2.87-32.46; p < 0.0.0001) relative to other ACTs. ACTs modified the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage after use. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Weighted regression analysis and interval estimators

Treesearch

Donald W. Seegrist

1974-01-01

A method for deriving the weighted least squares estimators for the parameters of a multiple regression model. Confidence intervals for expected values, and prediction intervals for the means of future samples are given.

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Influences of the Tamarisk Leaf Beetle (Diorhabda carinulata) on the diet of insectivorous birds along the Dolores River in Southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puckett, Sarah L.; van Riper, Charles

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of a biologic control agent, the tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), on native avifauna in southwestern Colorado, specifically, addressing whether and to what degree birds eat tamarisk leaf beetles. In 2010, we documented avian foraging behavior, characterized the arthropod community, sampled bird diets, and undertook an experiment to determine whether tamarisk leaf beetles are palatable to birds. We observed that tamarisk leaf beetles compose 24.0 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 19.9-27.4 percent) and 35.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 32.4-45.1 percent) of arthropod abundance and biomass in the study area, respectively. Birds ate few tamarisk leaf beetles, despite a superabundance of D. carinulata in the environment. The frequency of occurrence of tamarisk leaf beetles in bird diets was 2.1 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 1.3- 2.9 percent) by abundance and 3.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 2.6-4.2 percent) by biomass. Thus, tamarisk leaf beetles probably do not contribute significantly to the diets of birds in areas where biologic control of tamarisk is being applied.

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents after a hurricane.

PubMed

Garrison, C Z; Weinrich, M W; Hardin, S B; Weinrich, S; Wang, L

1993-10-01

A school-based study conducted in 1990, 1 year after Hurricane Hugo, investigated the frequency and correlates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 1,264 adolescents aged 11-17 years residing in selected South Carolina communities. Data were collected via a 174-item self-administered questionnaire that included a PTSD symptom scale. A computer algorithm that applied decision rules of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised to the symptoms reported was used to assign a diagnosis of PTSD and to designate the number of individuals who met the reexperiencing (20%), avoidance (9%), and arousal (18%) criteria. Rates of PTSD were lowest in black males (1.5%) and higher, but similar, in the remaining groups (3.8-6.2%). Results from a multivariable logistic model indicated that exposure to the hurricane (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.41), experiencing other violent traumatic events (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.75-3.44), being white (OR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.69) and being female (OR = 2.17, 95% confidence interval 1.15-4.10) were significant correlates of PTSD.

Bendectin and human congenital malformations.

PubMed

Shiono, P H; Klebanoff, M A

1989-08-01

The relationship between Bendectin exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy and the occurrence of congenital malformations was prospectively studied in 31,564 newborns registered in the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Birth Defects Study. The odds ratio for any major malformation and Bendectin use was 1.0 (95% confidence interval 0.8-1.4). There were 58 categories of congenital malformations; three of them were statistically associated with Bendectin exposure (microcephaly--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.8-15.6; congenital cataract--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.2-24.3; lung malformations (ICD-8 codes 484.4-484.8)--odds ratio = 4.6, 95% confidence interval = 1.9-10.9). This is exactly the number of associations that would be expected by chance. An independent study (the Collaborative Perinatal Project) was used to determine whether vomiting during pregnancy in the absence of Bendectin use was associated with these three malformations. Two of the three (microcephaly and cataract) had strong positive associations with vomiting in the absence of Bendectin use. We conclude that there is no increase in the overall rate of major malformations after exposure to Bendectin and that the three associations found between Bendectin and individual malformations are unlikely to be causal.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Temporary Hearing Threshold Shift in Healthy Volunteers with Hearing Protection Caused by Acoustic Noise Exposure during 3-T Multisequence MR Neuroimaging.

PubMed

Jin, Chao; Li, Huan; Li, Xianjun; Wang, Miaomiao; Liu, Congcong; Guo, Jianxin; Yang, Jian

2018-02-01

Purpose To determine whether a single 51-minute exposure to acoustic noise during 3-T multisequence magnetic resonance (MR) neuroimaging could affect the hearing threshold of healthy adults with earplugs and sponge mats as hearing protection. Materials and Methods With earplugs and motion-refraining sponge mats as hearing protection, 26 healthy young adults underwent 3-T MR neuroimaging imaging that included T1-weighted three-dimensional gradient-echo sequence, T2-weighted fast spin-echo sequence, diffusion-tensor imaging, diffusion-kurtosis imaging, T2*-weighted three-dimensional multiecho gradient-echo sequence, and blood oxygen level-dependent imaging. Automated auditory brainstem response (ABR) was used to measure the hearing thresholds within 24 hours before, within 20 minutes after, and 25 days after the MR examination. One-way repeated-measure analysis of variance with Bonferroni adjustment was used to compare automated ABR results among the three tests and partial η 2 (η p 2 ) was reported as a measure of effect size. Results Automated ABR results showed significantly increased mean threshold shift of 5.0 dB ± 8.1 (standard deviation) (left ear: 4.8 dB ± 9.2 [95% confidence interval: 1.09, 8.53], η p 2 = 0.221, P = .013; right ear: 5.2 dB ± 6.9 [95% confidence interval: 2.36, 8.02], η p 2 = 0.364, P = .001) immediately after the MR examination compared with the baseline study. This shift is below the temporary threshold shift of 40-50 dB that is associated with cochlea nerve changes. Automated ABR obtained at day 25 after MR imaging showed no significant differences from baseline (left ear: -2.3 dB ± 8.6 [95% confidence interval: -5.79, 1.78], η p 2 = 0.069, P = .185; right ear: 0.4 dB ± 7.3 [95% confidence interval: -3.35, 2.58], η p 2 = 0.003, P = .791). Conclusion A 3-T MR neuroimaging examination with the acoustic noise at equivalent sound pressure level of 103.5-111.3 dBA lasting 51 minutes can cause temporary hearing threshold shift in healthy volunteers with hearing protection. © RSNA, 2017.

Global longitudinal strain corrected by RR interval is a superior predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with systolic heart failure and atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Modin, Daniel; Sengeløv, Morten; Jørgensen, Peter Godsk; Bruun, Niels Eske; Olsen, Flemming Javier; Dons, Maria; Fritz Hansen, Thomas; Jensen, Jan Skov; Biering-Sørensen, Tor

2018-04-01

Quantification of systolic function in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is challenging. A novel approach, based on RR interval correction, to counteract the varying heart cycle lengths in AF has recently been proposed. Whether this method is superior in patients with systolic heart failure (HFrEF) with AF remains unknown. This study investigates the prognostic value of RR interval-corrected peak global longitudinal strain {GLSc = GLS/[RR^(1/2)]} in relation to all-cause mortality in HFrEF patients displaying AF during echocardiographic examination. Echocardiograms from 151 patients with HFrEF and AF during examination were analysed offline. Peak global longitudinal strain (GLS) was averaged from 18 myocardial segments obtained from three apical views. GLS was indexed with the square root of the RR interval {GLSc = GLS/[RR^(1/2)]}. Endpoint was all-cause mortality. During a median follow-up of 2.7 years, 40 patients (26.5%) died. Neither uncorrected GLS (P = 0.056) nor left ventricular ejection fraction (P = 0.053) was significantly associated with all-cause mortality. After RR^(1/2) indexation, GLSc became a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.22, P = 0.014, per %/s^(1/2) decrease). GLSc remained an independent predictor of mortality after multivariable adjustment (age, sex, mean heart rate, mean arterial blood pressure, left atrial volume index, and E/e') (hazard ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.31, P = 0.005 per %/s^(1/2) decrease). Decreasing {GLSc = GLS/[RR^(1/2)]}, but not uncorrected GLS nor left ventricular ejection fraction, was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in HFrEF patients with AF and remained an independent predictor after multivariable adjustment. © 2017 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Associations between maternal periconceptional exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and major birth defects.

PubMed

Hoyt, Adrienne T; Canfield, Mark A; Romitti, Paul A; Botto, Lorenzo D; Anderka, Marlene T; Krikov, Sergey V; Tarpey, Morgan K; Feldkamp, Marcia L

2016-11-01

While associations between secondhand smoke and a few birth defects (namely, oral clefts and neural tube defects) have been noted in the scientific literature, to our knowledge, there is no single or comprehensive source of population-based information on its associations with a range of birth defects among nonsmoking mothers. We utilized data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a large population-based multisite case-control study, to examine associations between maternal reports of periconceptional exposure to secondhand smoke in the household or workplace/school and major birth defects. The multisite National Birth Defects Prevention Study is the largest case-control study of birth defects to date in the United States. We selected cases from birth defect groups having >100 total cases, as well as all nonmalformed controls (10,200), from delivery years 1997 through 2009; 44 birth defects were examined. After excluding cases and controls from multiple births and whose mothers reported active smoking or pregestational diabetes, we analyzed data on periconceptional secondhand smoke exposure-encompassing the period 1 month prior to conception through the first trimester. For the birth defect craniosynostosis, we additionally examined the effect of exposure in the second and third trimesters as well due to the potential sensitivity to teratogens for this defect throughout pregnancy. Covariates included in all final models of birth defects with ≥5 exposed mothers were study site, previous live births, time between estimated date of delivery and interview date, maternal age at estimated date of delivery, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, nativity, household income divided by number of people supported by this income, periconceptional alcohol consumption, and folic acid supplementation. For each birth defect examined, we used logistic regression analyses to estimate both crude and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for both isolated and total case groups for various sources of exposure (household only; workplace/school only; household and workplace/school; household or workplace/school). The prevalence of secondhand smoke exposure only across all sources ranged from 12.9-27.8% for cases and 14.5-15.8% for controls. The adjusted odds ratios for any vs no secondhand smoke exposure in the household or workplace/school and isolated birth defects were significantly elevated for neural tube defects (anencephaly: adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.25; and spina bifida: adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.86); orofacial clefts (cleft lip without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.81; cleft lip with or without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.46; cleft palate alone: adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.63); bilateral renal agenesis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.75); amniotic band syndrome-limb body wall complex (adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.51); and atrial septal defects, secundum (adjusted odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.72). There were no significant inverse associations observed. Additional studies replicating the findings are needed to better understand the moderate positive associations observed between periconceptional secondhand smoke and several birth defects in this analysis. Increased odds ratios resulting from chance (eg, multiple comparisons) or recall bias cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

2011-12-01

Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0.204)], respectively. Income elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.098 [95% confidence interval (0.018, 0.178)], 0.136 [95% confidence interval (0.028, 0.245)] and 0.521 [95% confidence interval (0.438, 0.605)], respectively. The aforementioned results are in 2008, which hold similar pattern as results in 2003 as well as results from pooled data of two periods. First, no significant difference is detected between sensitivity of outpatient services and sensitivity of inpatient services, responding to own-price change. Second, inpatient services are substitutes to outpatient services. Third, the growth of inpatient services is faster than the growth in outpatient services in response to income growth. The major findings from this paper suggest refining insurance policy in rural China. First, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, changing outpatient price is at least as effective as changing inpatient price to adjust demand of health care. Second, the current national guideline of healthcare reform to increase the reimbursement rate for inpatient services will crowd out outpatient services; however, we have no evidence about the change in demand for inpatient service if insurance covers outpatient services. Third, a referral system and gate-keeping system should be established to guide rural patients to utilize outpatient service. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnosis and management of bacteremic urinary tract infection in infants.

PubMed

Roman, Heidi K; Chang, Pearl W; Schroeder, Alan R

2015-01-01

To report the prevalence of bacteremia by age in a sample of infants<1 year of age with urinary tract infections (UTIs), to compare characteristics of infants with UTIs with and without bacteremia, and to describe treatment courses and 30-day outcomes in infants with UTIs with and without bacteremia. We used a retrospective cross-sectional design to determine the prevalence of bacteremia in infants with UTIs at our institution. A double cohort design matching for age and gender was used to compare clinical characteristics and outcomes between infants with bacteremic versus nonbacteremic UTIs. We identified 1379 UTIs, with blood cultures obtained in 52% of cases. The prevalence of bacteremia was 4.1% (95% confidence interval 3.1%-5.3%) for all UTIs and 8% (95% confidence interval 6.1%-10.2%) for UTIs in which blood culture was obtained. Fifty-five infants with bacteremic UTIs were compared with 110 infants with nonbacteremic UTIs. Except for minor differences in the urinalysis and serum band count, there were no significant differences in clinical presentation between the 2 groups. Bacteremic infants received longer parenteral treatment courses than nonbacteremic infants (mean 6.7 vs 2.4 days, P<.001). Treatment courses in the bacteremic group were variable and predicted by age but not severity of illness. No bacteremic infant had recurrent UTI or bacteremia with the same organism within 30 days of discharge. Treatment was variable but outcomes were excellent in infants with bacteremic UTIs. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Bioequivalence and Pharmacokinetic Evaluation Study of Acetaminophen vs. Acetaminophen Plus Caffeine Tablets in Healthy Mexican Volunteers.

PubMed

Guzmán, Nora Angélica Núñez; Molina, Daniel Ruiz; Núñez, Benigno Figueroa; Soto-Sosa, Juan Carlos; Abarca, Jorge Eduardo Herrera

2016-12-01

The aim of this clinical trial was to establish the bioequivalence of two tablets containing acetaminophen 650 mg (reference) and acetaminophen 650 mg plus caffeine 65 mg (test), administered orally, in fasting conditions in healthy Mexican volunteers. Blood samples were taken from 21 male and five female individuals, during a 24-h period, to characterize the pharmacokinetic profile of acetaminophen. Plasma samples were quantified by ultra-performance liquid chromatography, tandem mass spectrometry. Pharmacokinetic metrics (maximum plasma concentration, area under the curve from time zero to the last sampling time, and area under the curve from time zero to infinity) were used to determine the 90 % confidence interval of the test/reference coefficient. The geometric mean values for maximum plasma concentration obtained for the reference and test products were 9.46 ± 34.21 and 9.72 ± 32.38 µg/mL, respectively, whereas for the area under the curve from time zero to the last sampling time the values obtained were 34.93 ± 32.58 and 35.89 ± 31.03 µg h/mL for the reference and test formulations, respectively. The 90 % confidence intervals were within the acceptance range (80-125 %). The test product was bioequivalent to the reference product. A faster absorption was seen in the test formulation in the Mexican population.

First approach to exhaust emissions characterization of light vehicles in Montevideo, Uruguay.

PubMed

D'Angelo, Mauro; González, Alice Elizabeth; Rezzano Tizze, Nicolás

2018-03-15

According to Act No. 17283 of November 28th, 2000, air quality protection is a general concern in Uruguay. Road transport is the main emitter of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), as the National Inventory of Air Emissions 2006 stated. Actually, it is responsible for the emissions of 59.8% of NO x and 28% of carbon monoxide (CO). The number of households owning a car in Uruguay increased from 29% in 2005 to 39% in 2013, enhancing the importance of characterizing the vehicular emissions of the national fleet. In this paper, a first approach for this characterization is presented. It was carried out on a sample of 11 light vehicles currently in use in Montevideo city, Uruguay. On-road emissions measurements of nitrogen monoxide (NO), carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were carried out for calculating the emission factors. The fitness of the set of calculated emission factors values to different probability distributions was tested. When possible, the 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the mean emission factors (CO: 2.0g/km±0.3g/km; NO: 0.05g/km±0.01g/km). This procedure was useful to obtaining accurate confidence intervals from a relatively small sample size. Finally, the link between atmospheric emissions and some other parameters of the tested vehicles was studied using a multivariate statistical tool, highlighting the strong increase in carbon monoxide emissions observed for low vehicles speeds and fuel efficiencies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exemptions From Mandatory Immunization After Legally Mandated Parental Counseling.

PubMed

Omer, Saad B; Allen, Kristen; Chang, D H; Guterman, L Beryl; Bednarczyk, Robert A; Jordan, Alex; Buttenheim, Alison; Jones, Malia; Hannan, Claire; deHart, M Patricia; Salmon, Daniel A

2018-01-01

The success of health care provider counseling-based interventions to address vaccine hesitancy is not clear. In 2011, Washington State implemented Senate Bill 5005 (SB5005), requiring counseling and a signed form from a licensed health care provider to obtain an exemption. Evaluating the impact of a counseling intervention can provide important insight into population-level interventions that focus on interpersonal communication by a health care provider. We used segmented regression and interaction and aggregation indices to assess the impact of SB5005 on immunization coverage and exemption rates in Washington State from school years 1997-1998 through 2013-2014. After SB5005 was implemented, there was a significant relative decrease of 40.2% (95% confidence interval: -43.6% to -36.6%) in exemption rates. This translates to a significant absolute reduction of 2.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval: -4.2% to -1.7%) in exemption rates. There were increases in vaccine coverage for all vaccines required for school entrance, with the exception of the hepatitis B vaccine. The probability that kindergarteners without exemptions would encounter kindergarteners with exemptions (interaction index) decreased, and the probability that kindergarteners with exemptions would encounter other such kindergarteners (aggregation index) also decreased after SB5005. Moreover, SB5005 was associated with a decline in geographic clustering of vaccine exemptors. States in the United States and jurisdictions in other countries should consider adding parental counseling by health care provider as a requirement for obtaining exemptions to vaccination requirements. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Influence of exercise, walking, cycling, and overall nonexercise physical activity on mortality in Chinese women.

PubMed

Matthews, Charles E; Jurj, Adriana L; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Li, Hong-Lan; Yang, Gong; Li, Qi; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei

2007-06-15

This investigation described the effects of exercise, walking, and cycling for transportation, as well as the effect of overall nonexercise physical activity, on mortality in the Shanghai Women's Health Study (1997-2004). Women without heart disease, stroke, or cancer were followed for an average of 5.7 years (n = 67,143), and there were 1,091 deaths from all causes, 537 deaths from cancer, and 251 deaths from cardiovascular diseases. Information about physical activity and relevant covariates was obtained by interview. Proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Exercise and cycling for transportation were both inversely and independently associated with all-cause mortality (p(trend) < 0.05), but walking for transportation was less strongly associated with reduced risk (p(trend) = 0.07). Women reporting no regular exercise but who reported 10 or more metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours/day of nonexercise activity were at 25-50% reduced risk (p(trend) < 0.01) relative to less active women (0-9.9 MET-hours/day). Among women reporting the least nonexercise activity (0-9.9 MET-hours/day) but reporting regular exercise participation, exercise was associated with reduced mortality (hazard ratio = 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.99). These findings add new evidence that overall physical activity levels are an important determinant of longevity, and that health benefit can be obtained through an active lifestyle, exercise, or combinations of both.

Nondepressive Psychosocial Factors and CKD Outcomes in Black Americans.

PubMed

Lunyera, Joseph; Davenport, Clemontina A; Bhavsar, Nrupen A; Sims, Mario; Scialla, Julia; Pendergast, Jane; Hall, Rasheeda; Tyson, Crystal C; Russell, Jennifer St Clair; Wang, Wei; Correa, Adolfo; Boulware, L Ebony; Diamantidis, Clarissa J

2018-02-07

Established risk factors for CKD do not fully account for risk of CKD in black Americans. We studied the association of nondepressive psychosocial factors with risk of CKD in the Jackson Heart Study. We used principal component analysis to identify underlying constructs from 12 psychosocial baseline variables (perceived daily, lifetime, and burden of lifetime discrimination; stress; anger in; anger out; hostility; pessimism; John Henryism; spirituality; perceived social status; and social support). Using multivariable models adjusted for demographics and comorbidity, we examined the association of psychosocial variables with baseline CKD prevalence, eGFR decline, and incident CKD during follow-up. Of 3390 (64%) Jackson Heart Study participants with the required data, 656 (19%) had prevalent CKD. Those with CKD (versus no CKD) had lower perceived daily (mean [SD] score =7.6 [8.5] versus 9.7 [9.0]) and lifetime discrimination (2.5 [2.0] versus 3.1 [2.2]), lower perceived stress (4.2 [4.0] versus 5.2 [4.4]), higher hostility (12.1 [5.2] versus 11.5 [4.8]), higher John Henryism (30.0 [4.8] versus 29.7 [4.4]), and higher pessimism (2.3 [2.2] versus 2.0 [2.1]; all P <0.05). Principal component analysis identified three factors from the 12 psychosocial variables: factor 1, life stressors (perceived discrimination, stress); factor 2, moods (anger, hostility); and, factor 3, coping strategies (John Henryism, spirituality, social status, social support). After adjustments, factor 1 (life stressors) was negatively associated with prevalent CKD at baseline among women only: odds ratio, 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.89). After a median follow-up of 8 years, identified psychosocial factors were not significantly associated with eGFR decline (life stressors: β =0.08; 95% confidence interval, -0.02 to 0.17; moods: β =0.03; 95% confidence interval, -0.06 to 0.13; coping: β =-0.02; 95% confidence interval, -0.12 to 0.08) or incident CKD (life stressors: odds ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 1.29; moods: odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.84 to 1.24; coping: odds ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.11). Greater life stressors were associated with lower prevalence of CKD at baseline in the Jackson Heart Study. However, psychosocial factors were not associated with risk of CKD over a median follow-up of 8 years. This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2018_01_03_CJASNPodcast_18_2_L.mp3. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Polysubstance use and misuse or abuse of prescription opioid analgesics: a multi-level analysis of international data.

PubMed

Morley, Katherine I; Ferris, Jason A; Winstock, Adam R; Lynskey, Michael T

2017-06-01

Increasing mortality and morbidity associated with opioid analgesics has led to concerns about their misuse and abuse, even when obtained through a prescription. These concerns have been most pronounced in the United States, but limited data make it difficult to determine whether it is a problem in other countries. We investigated opioid analgesic misuse and abuse in participants from the Global Drug Survey 2015 resident in the United States (N = 1334), United Kingdom (N = 1199), France (N = 1258), Germany (N = 866), and Australia (N = 1013) who had used at least 1 prescription opioid analgesic medication in the past year. We also investigated the relationship with polysubstance use, one of the most consistent predictors of problematic opioid analgesic use. Data included misuse and abuse of codeine, hydrocodone, oxycodone, and tramadol; ability to obtain a prescription; different sources for obtaining drugs; and past-year use of benzodiazepines and illicit drugs. In multilevel models, country of residence accounted for less than 3% of the variance in opioid analgesic misuse or abuse. Adjusting for country of residence and sociodemographic factors, use of illicit drugs and benzodiazepines was associated with 4-fold greater odds of misuse (odds ratio 4.36, 95% confidence interval 3.29-5.93) and 6-fold greater odds of abuse compared with not using either drug (odds ratio 6.49, 95% confidence interval 4.0-10.48), although the strength of the association with abuse varied by country. Misuse and abuse by those prescribed opioid analgesics seem to be a problem that is not limited to the United States and warrant attention on an international scale.

Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and other lipid indices vs elevated glucose risk in Arab adolescents.

PubMed

Al-Daghri, Nasser M; Aljohani, Naji J; Al-Attas, Omar S; Al-Saleh, Yousef; Wani, Kaiser; Alnaami, Abdullah M; Alfawaz, Hanan; Al-Ajlan, Abdulrahman S M; Kumar, Sudhesh; Chrousos, George P; Alokail, Majed S

2015-01-01

Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) has been identified as a significant predictor of various cardiovascular events in adults. Limited studies have been conducted in the pediatric population with diverse results, depending on ethnic origin. None has been conducted in the Arabic adolescent population so far; this study aims to fill this gap. In this cross-sectional study, 1690 Saudi school adolescents (968 boys [mean age 14.8 ± 1.7] and 722 girls [mean age 14.6 ± 1.7]) were recruited. Anthropometrics were obtained. Fasting blood glucose and lipid profiles were quantified routinely. Non-HDL-C was calculated and screening was done for dyslipidemia using cutoffs obtained from the cohort and elevated fasting glucose. Using the 90th percentile cutoff obtained, the overall prevalence of high non-HDL-C (≥4.26 mmol/L) was 10.1%. Prevalence was slightly higher in girls (10.5%) than boys (9.9%). Non-HDL-C was similar to other lipids in terms of significant associations with anthropometric measures and glucose in both boys and girls. Elevated triglycerides was most predictive of elevated glucose in both girls (odds ratio 2.41; confidence interval 1.43-4.08; P = .001) and boys (odds ratio 2.61; confidence interval 1.70-4.0); P < .001). Non-HDL-C appears to be gender-specific and is cardiometabolically more associated with Saudi boys, despite higher levels in girls. It is inferior compared with triglycerides in assessing elevated glucose risk. Further investigations may provide a more definite value for non-HDL-C use as a biomarker in assessing cardiometabolic risk in the Arab adolescent population. Copyright © 2015 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Women's awareness of liberalization of abortion law and knowledge of place for obtaining services in Nepal.

PubMed

Thapa, Shyam; Sharma, Sharad K

2015-03-01

In Nepal, following the liberalization of the abortion law, expansion and scaling up of services proceeded in parallel with efforts to create awareness of the legalization status of abortion and provide women with information about where services are available. This article assesses the effectiveness of these programmatic interventions in the early years of the country's abortion program. Data from a 2006 national survey are analyzed with 2 outcome measures-awareness of the legal status of abortion and knowledge of places to obtain abortion services among women ages 15 to 44 years. The variations in the outcomes are analyzed by ecological-development subregion, residence, education, household wealth quintile, age, and number of living children. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression techniques are used. Overall 32.3% (95% confidence interval = 31.4% to 33.2%) of the respondents were aware of the legal status of abortion and 56.5% (95% confidence interval = 55.5% to 57.4%) knew of a place where they could obtain an abortion. Both outcome measures showed considerable variations by the covariates. Women with secondary or higher level of education had the highest odds ratio of being aware of the law and having knowledge of a source for abortion services. Ecological-development subregions showed the second highest levels of odds ratios. Significant disparities among the population subgroups existed in the diffusion of awareness of the legal status of abortion and having knowledge of a place for abortion services in Nepal. The results point to which population subgroups to focus on and also serve as a baseline for assessing future progress in the diffusion process. © 2012 APJPH.

"Magnitude-based inference": a statistical review.

PubMed

Welsh, Alan H; Knight, Emma J

2015-04-01

We consider "magnitude-based inference" and its interpretation by examining in detail its use in the problem of comparing two means. We extract from the spreadsheets, which are provided to users of the analysis (http://www.sportsci.org/), a precise description of how "magnitude-based inference" is implemented. We compare the implemented version of the method with general descriptions of it and interpret the method in familiar statistical terms. We show that "magnitude-based inference" is not a progressive improvement on modern statistics. The additional probabilities introduced are not directly related to the confidence interval but, rather, are interpretable either as P values for two different nonstandard tests (for different null hypotheses) or as approximate Bayesian calculations, which also lead to a type of test. We also discuss sample size calculations associated with "magnitude-based inference" and show that the substantial reduction in sample sizes claimed for the method (30% of the sample size obtained from standard frequentist calculations) is not justifiable so the sample size calculations should not be used. Rather than using "magnitude-based inference," a better solution is to be realistic about the limitations of the data and use either confidence intervals or a fully Bayesian analysis.

Criterion validity study of the cervical range of motion (CROM) device for rotational range of motion on healthy adults.

PubMed

Tousignant, Michel; Smeesters, Cécil; Breton, Anne-Marie; Breton, Emilie; Corriveau, Hélène

2006-04-01

This study compared range of motion (ROM) measurements using a cervical range of motion device (CROM) and an optoelectronic system (OPTOTRAK). To examine the criterion validity of the CROM for the measurement of cervical ROM on healthy adults. Whereas measurements of cervical ROM are recognized as part of the assessment of patients with neck pain, few devices are available in clinical settings. Two papers published previously showed excellent criterion validity for measurements of cervical flexion/extension and lateral flexion using the CROM. Subjects performed neck rotation, flexion/extension, and lateral flexion while sitting on a wooden chair. The ROM values were measured by the CROM as well as the OPTOTRAK. The cervical rotational ROM values using the CROM demonstrated a good to excellent linear relationship with those using the OPTOTRAK: right rotation, r = 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.94), and left rotation, r = 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.90-0.97). Similar results were also obtained for flexion/extension and lateral flexion ROM values. The CROM showed excellent criterion validity for measurements of cervical rotation. We propose using ROM values measured by the CROM as outcome measures for patients with neck pain.

Cost Analysis of a Novel Enzymatic Debriding Agent for Management of Burn Wounds.

PubMed

Giudice, Giuseppe; Filoni, Angela; Maggio, Giulio; Bonamonte, Domenico; Vestita, Michelangelo

2017-01-01

Introduction . Given its efficacy and safety, NexoBrid™ (NXB) has become part of our therapeutic options in burns treatment with satisfactory results. However, no cost analysis comparing NXB to the standard of care (SOC) has been carried out as of today. Aim . To assess the cost of treatment with NXB and compare it to the SOC cost. Methods . 20 patients with 14-22% of TBSA with an intermediate-deep thermal burn related injury were retrospectively and consecutively included. 10 of these patients were treated with the SOC, while the other 10 with NXB. The cost analysis was performed in accordance with the weighted average Italian Health Ministry DRGs and with Conferenza Stato/Regioni 2003 and the study by Tan et al. For each cost, 95% confidence intervals have been evaluated. Results . Considering the 10 patients treated with NXB, the overall savings (total net saving) amounted to 53300 euros. The confidence interval analysis confirmed the savings. Discussion . As shown by our preliminary results, significant savings are obtained with the use of NXB. The limit of our study is that it is based on Italian health care costs and assesses a relative small cohort of patients. Further studies on larger multinational cohorts are warranted.

Methodical aspects of rearing decapod larvae, Pagurus bernhardus (Paguridae) and Carcinus maenas (Portunidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawirs, R. R.

1982-12-01

Improved methods for experimental rearing of Pagurus bernhardus and Carcinus maenas larvae are presented. Isolated maintenance was found essential for reliable statistical evaluation of results obtained from stages older than zoea-1. Only by isolated rearing is it possible to calculate mean values ±95% confidence intervals of stage duration. Mean values (without confidence intervals) can only be given for group-reared larvae if mortality is zero. Compared to group rearing, isolated rearing led to better survival, shorter periods of development and stimulated growth. Due to different swimming behavior P. bernhardus zoeae needed larger water volumes than Carcinus maenas larvae. P. bernhardus zoeae were reared with best results when isolated in Petri dishes (ca. 50 ml). They fed on newly hatched brine shrimp nauplii ( Artemia spp.). P. bernhardus megalopa did not require any gastropod shell or substratum; it developed best in glass vials without any food. C. maenas larvae could be reared most sucessfully in glass vials (ca 20 ml) under a simulated day-night regime (LD 16:8); constant darkness had a detrimental effect on development, leading to prolonged stage-duration times. C. maenas larvae were fed a mixture of newly hatched brine shrimp naupli and rotifers ( Brachionus plicatilis).

Detection of human papillomavirus DNA in patients referred to a family practice colposcopy clinic.

PubMed

Holman, J R

1996-01-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is strongly implicated in the pathogenesis of cervical neoplasia. The ability of a commercially available kit (Virapap/Viratype) to detect evidence of HPV is compared with cervical cytology, colposcopy, and directed biopsies. During a period of 16 months, cervical samples from 241 consecutive new patients referred for a colposcopy examination were obtained for HPV-DNA hybridization typing according to the kit instructions. Samples were sent to a reference laboratory for testing. The results were compared with results of the colposcopy examination, cervical cytology, and directed cervical biopsy samples processed and evaluated by our hospital laboratory. HPV DNA was detected in 27 of 107 patients who had abnormal colposcopy findings for a sensitivity of 25 +/- 7.5 percent at the 90 percent confidence interval. One of 134 patients with normal findings was positive for a specificity of 99 +/- 5 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. Based on a 75 percent probability of HPV in the population, the positive predictive value was 99 percent and the negative predictive value 30 percent. With the low negative predictive value and sensitivity, HPV-DNA testing by this commercial kit is not an adequate tool for screening HPV in this population.

Performance analysis of complex repairable industrial systems using PSO and fuzzy confidence interval based methodology.

PubMed

Garg, Harish

2013-03-01

The main objective of the present paper is to propose a methodology for analyzing the behavior of the complex repairable industrial systems. In real-life situations, it is difficult to find the most optimal design policies for MTBF (mean time between failures), MTTR (mean time to repair) and related costs by utilizing available resources and uncertain data. For this, the availability-cost optimization model has been constructed for determining the optimal design parameters for improving the system design efficiency. The uncertainties in the data related to each component of the system are estimated with the help of fuzzy and statistical methodology in the form of the triangular fuzzy numbers. Using these data, the various reliability parameters, which affects the system performance, are obtained in the form of the fuzzy membership function by the proposed confidence interval based fuzzy Lambda-Tau (CIBFLT) methodology. The computed results by CIBFLT are compared with the existing fuzzy Lambda-Tau methodology. Sensitivity analysis on the system MTBF has also been addressed. The methodology has been illustrated through a case study of washing unit, the main part of the paper industry. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is fertility reduced among men exposed to radiofrequency fields in the Norwegian Navy?

PubMed

Møllerløkken, Ole J; Moen, Bente E

2008-07-01

The effects of radiofrequency fields on human health are not well understood, and public concern about negative health effects has been rising. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between workers exposed to electromagnetic fields and their reproductive health. We obtained data using a questionnaire in a cross-sectional study of naval military men, response rate 63% (n = 1487). We asked the respondents about exposure, lifestyle, reproductive health, previous diseases, work and education. An expert group categorized the work categories related to electromagnetic field exposure. We categorized the work categories "tele/communication," "electronics" and "radar/sonar" as being exposed to electromagnetic fields. Logistic regression adjusted for age, ever smoked, military education, and physical exercise at work showed increased risk of infertility among tele/communication odds ratio (OR = 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.04-2.85), and radar/sonar odds ratio (OR = 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.27-4.09). The electronics group had no increased risk. This study shows a possible relationship between exposure to radiofrequency fields during work with radiofrequency equipment and radar and reduced fertility. However, the results must be interpreted with caution.

Papanicolaou Society of Cytopathology new guidelines have a greater ability of risk stratification for pancreatic endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration specimens

PubMed Central

Chen, Bo; Zhao, Yu; Gu, Jiangang; Wu, Huanwen; Liang, Zhiyong; Meng, Zhilan

2017-01-01

The Papanicolaou Society of Cytopathology has recently proposed a standardized terminology and nomenclature guidelines for pancreatic cytology. However the risk of malignancy associated with the new guidelines has been scarcely studied. In this study, a series of pancreatic cytology cases obtained by endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration from 294 Chinese patients were retrospectively re-categorized into six categories according the new guidelines. The risks of malignancy were 18.1% for “negative,” 20.0% for “neoplastic,” 57.1% for “nondiagnostic,” 69.2% for “atypical,” 87.5% for “suspicious,” and 100.0% for “positive” respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.90-0.96), which was significantly higher than that associated with old classification system (0.82; 95% Confidence Interval, 0.77-0.87) conventionally used in China. Our investigation demonstrated that the new guidelines have a greater ability of risk stratification than the old classification system conventionally used in China. This may be helpful in giving better predictions of malignancy, thus leading to more personalized treatment strategies. PMID:28042957

Decline in lung function among cement production workers: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Moghadam, Somayeh Rahimi; Abedi, Siavosh; Afshari, Mahdi; Abedini, Ehsan; Moosazadeh, Mahmood

2017-12-20

Several studies with different results have been performed regarding cement dust exposure and its pathogenic outcomes during the previous years. This study aims to combine these results to obtain a reliable estimate of the effect of exposure to cement dust. PubMed and other data banks were searched to identify required electronic articles. The search was extended interviewing with relevant experts and research centers. Point and pooled estimates of outcome with 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Participants were 5371 exposed and 2650 unexposed persons. Total mean differences (95% confidence intervals) were estimated as of -0.48 (-0.71 to -0.25) L for forced vital capacity (FVC), -0.7 (-0.92 to -0.47) L for forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), -0.43 (-0.68 to -0.19) L for FEV1/FVC%, -0.73 (-1.15 to -0.30) L/min for PEFR and -0.36 (-0.51 to -0.21) L/s for FEF25-75. Our meta-analysis showed that cement dust has significant impact on lung function and reduces the indicators of FVC, FEV1, FEV1/FVC, PEFR and FEF25-75.

Nonprescribed hormone use and self-performed surgeries: "do-it-yourself" transitions in transgender communities in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Rotondi, Nooshin Khobzi; Bauer, Greta R; Scanlon, Kyle; Kaay, Matthias; Travers, Robb; Travers, Anna

2013-10-01

We examined the extent of nonprescribed hormone use and self-performed surgeries among transgender or transsexual (trans) people in Ontario, Canada. We present original survey research from the Trans PULSE Project. A total of 433 participants were recruited from 2009 to 2010 through respondent-driven sampling. We used a case series design to characterize those currently taking nonprescribed hormones and participants who had ever self-performed sex-reassignment surgeries. An estimated 43.0% (95% confidence interval = 34.9, 51.5) of trans Ontarians were currently using hormones; of these, a quarter had ever obtained hormones from nonmedical sources (e.g., friend or relative, street or strangers, Internet pharmacy, herbals or supplements). Fourteen participants (6.4%; 95% confidence interval = 0.8, 9.0) reported currently taking nonprescribed hormones. Five indicated having performed or attempted surgical procedures on themselves (orchiectomy or mastectomy). Past negative experiences with providers, along with limited financial resources and a lack of access to transition-related services, may contribute to nonprescribed hormone use and self-performed surgeries. Promoting training initiatives for health care providers and jurisdictional support for more accessible services may help to address trans people's specific needs.

Serum uric acid and cancer mortality and incidence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dovell, Frances; Boffetta, Paolo

2018-07-01

Elevated serum uric acid (SUA) is a marker of chronic inflammation and has been suggested to be associated with increased risk of cancer, but its antioxidant capacity would justify an anticancer effect. Previous meta-analyses did not include all available results. We conducted a systematic review of prospective studies on SUA level and risk of all cancers and specific cancers, a conducted a meta-analysis based on random-effects models for high versus low SUA level as well as for an increase in 1 mg/dl SUA. The relative risk of all cancers for high versus low SUA level was 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 0.94-1.27; 11 risk estimates); that for a mg/dl increase in SUA level was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.99-1.07). Similar results were obtained for lung cancer (six risk estimates) and colon cancer (four risk estimates). Results for other cancers were sparse. Elevated SUA levels appear to be associated with a modest increase in overall cancer risk, although the combined risk estimate did not reach the formal level of statistical significance. Results for specific cancers were limited and mainly negative.

Food intake, oral hygiene and gingival bleeding in pregnancy: does lifestyle make a difference? A cross sectional exploratory study

PubMed Central

Gaffar, Balgis O.; El Tantawi, Maha M.A.; AlAgl, Adel S.; Al-Ansari, Asim

2016-01-01

Objectives To investigate the association between lifestyle factors (food intake, sugary snacks consumption and oral health practices) and gingival bleeding during pregnancy. Methods A cross sectional exploratory study was conducted in the Maternity hospital, Dammam, Saudi Arabia. It included pregnant Saudi women selected using a convenience sample. Information was collected concerning participants’ background, oral hygiene practices and visits to dentists. They were asked about the amount of food they consumed and their use of sugary snacks. Logistic regression analysis assessed the association between lifestyle factors and gingival bleeding. Results Responses were obtained from 197 women (92.1% response rate). Most women brushed their teeth but had < the recommended intake in the various food groups. Brushing was associated with lower odd of gingival bleeding (odds ratio= 0.47, 95% confidence interval= 0.23, 0.93) whereas intake of fewer servings than the recommended amounts in all food groups was associated with higher odds (odds ratio = 3.64, 95% confidence interval = 1.12, 11.82) Conclusion Brushing and food intake during pregnancy are associated with gingival bleeding. Pregnant women can potentially improve their oral health by modifying their lifestyle and following healthier practices. PMID:27004053

Confidence Intervals for the Probability of Superiority Effect Size Measure and the Area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruscio, John; Mullen, Tara

2012-01-01

It is good scientific practice to the report an appropriate estimate of effect size and a confidence interval (CI) to indicate the precision with which a population effect was estimated. For comparisons of 2 independent groups, a probability-based effect size estimator (A) that is equal to the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve…

The bacterial meningitis score to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis in children from Sao Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Mekitarian Filho, Eduardo; Horita, Sérgio Massaru; Gilio, Alfredo Elias; Alves, Anna Cláudia Dominguez; Nigrovic, Lise E

2013-09-01

In a retrospective cohort of 494 children with meningitis in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the Bacterial Meningitis Score identified all the children with bacterial meningitis (sensitivity 100%, 95% confidence interval: 92-100% and negative predictive value 100%, 95% confidence interval: 98-100%). Addition of cerebrospinal fluid lactate to the score did not improve clinical prediction rule performance.

Spacecraft utility and the development of confidence intervals for criticality of anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. E.

1980-01-01

The concept of spacecraft utility, a measure of its performance in orbit, is discussed and its formulation is described. Performance is defined in terms of the malfunctions that occur and the criticality to the mission of these malfunctions. Different approaches to establishing average or expected values of criticality are discussed and confidence intervals are developed for parameters used in the computation of utility.

Prevalence Estimates of Complicated Syphilis.

PubMed

Dombrowski, Julia C; Pedersen, Rolf; Marra, Christina M; Kerani, Roxanne P; Golden, Matthew R

2015-12-01

We reviewed 68 cases of possible neurosyphilis among 573 syphilis cases in King County, WA, from 3rd January 2012 to 30th September 2013; 7.9% (95% confidence interval, 5.8%-10.5%) had vision or hearing changes, and 3.5% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-5.4%) had both symptoms and objective confirmation of complicated syphilis with either abnormal cerebrospinal fluid or an abnormal ophthalmologic examination.

Speech and language adverse effects after thalamotomy and deep brain stimulation in patients with movement disorders: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Alomar, Soha; King, Nicolas K K; Tam, Joseph; Bari, Ausaf A; Hamani, Clement; Lozano, Andres M

2017-01-01

The thalamus has been a surgical target for the treatment of various movement disorders. Commonly used therapeutic modalities include ablative and nonablative procedures. A major clinical side effect of thalamic surgery is the appearance of speech problems. This review summarizes the data on the development of speech problems after thalamic surgery. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using nine databases, including Medline, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. We also checked for articles by searching citing and cited articles. We retrieved studies between 1960 and September 2014. Of a total of 2,320 patients, 19.8% (confidence interval: 14.8-25.9) had speech difficulty after thalamotomy. Speech difficulty occurred in 15% (confidence interval: 9.8-22.2) of those treated with a unilaterally and 40.6% (confidence interval: 29.5-52.8) of those treated bilaterally. Speech impairment was noticed 2- to 3-fold more commonly after left-sided procedures (40.7% vs. 15.2%). Of the 572 patients that underwent DBS, 19.4% (confidence interval: 13.1-27.8) experienced speech difficulty. Subgroup analysis revealed that this complication occurs in 10.2% (confidence interval: 7.4-13.9) of patients treated unilaterally and 34.6% (confidence interval: 21.6-50.4) treated bilaterally. After thalamotomy, the risk was higher in Parkinson's patients compared to patients with essential tremor: 19.8% versus 4.5% in the unilateral group and 42.5% versus 13.9% in the bilateral group. After DBS, this rate was higher in essential tremor patients. Both lesioning and stimulation thalamic surgery produce adverse effects on speech. Left-sided and bilateral procedures are approximately 3-fold more likely to cause speech difficulty. This effect was higher after thalamotomy compared to DBS. In the thalamotomy group, the risk was higher in Parkinson's patients, whereas in the DBS group it was higher in patients with essential tremor. Understanding the pathophysiology of speech disturbance after thalamic procedures is a priority. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Outcomes after helicopter versus ground emergency medical services for major trauma--propensity score and instrumental variable analyses: a retrospective nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Tsuchiya, Asuka; Tsutsumi, Yusuke; Yasunaga, Hideo

2016-11-29

Because of a lack of randomized controlled trials and the methodological weakness of currently available observational studies, the benefits of helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) over ground emergency medical services (GEMS) for major trauma patients remain uncertain. The aim of this retrospective nationwide cohort study was to compare the mortality of adults with serious traumatic injuries who were transported by HEMS and GEMS, and to analyze the effects of HEMS in various subpopulations. Using the Japan Trauma Data Bank, we evaluated all adult patients who had an injury severity score ≥ 16 transported by HEMS or GEMS during the daytime between 2004 and 2014. We compared in-hospital mortality between patients transported by HEMS and GEMS using propensity score matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting and instrumental variable analyses to adjust for measured and unmeasured confounding factors. Eligible patients (n = 21,286) from 192 hospitals included 4128 transported by HEMS and 17,158 transported by GEMS. In the propensity score-matched model, there was a significant difference in the in-hospital mortality between HEMS and GEMS groups (22.2 vs. 24.5%, risk difference -2.3% [95% confidence interval, -4.2 to -0.5]; number needed to treat, 43 [95% confidence interval, 24 to 220]). The inverse probability of treatment weighting (20.8% vs. 23.9%; risk difference, -3.9% [95% confidence interval, -5.7 to -2.1]; number needed to treat, 26 [95% confidence interval, 17 to 48]) and instrumental variable analyses showed similar results (risk difference, -6.5% [95% confidence interval, -9.2 to -3.8]; number needed to treat, 15 [95% confidence interval, 11 to 27]). HEMS transport was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality after falls, compression injuries, severe chest injuries, extremity (including pelvic) injuries, and traumatic arrest on arrival to the emergency department. HEMS was associated with a significantly lower mortality than GEMS in adult patients with major traumatic injuries after adjusting for measured and unmeasured confounders.

Determinants of waterpipe use amongst adolescents in Northern Sweden: a survey of use pattern, risk perception, and environmental factors.

PubMed

Ramji, Rathi; Arnetz, Judy; Nilsson, Maria; Jamil, Hikmet; Norström, Fredrik; Maziak, Wasim; Wiklund, Ywonne; Arnetz, Bengt

2015-09-15

Determinants of waterpipe use in adolescents are believed to differ from those for other tobacco products, but there is a lack of studies of possible social, cultural, or psychological aspects of waterpipe use in this population. This study applied a socioecological model to explore waterpipe use, and its relationship to other tobacco use in Swedish adolescents. A total of 106 adolescents who attended an urban high-school in northern Sweden responded to an anonymous questionnaire. Prevalence rates for waterpipe use were examined in relation to socio-demographics, peer pressure, sensation seeking behavior, harm perception, environmental factors, and depression. Thirty-three percent reported ever having smoked waterpipe (ever use), with 30% having done so during the last 30 days (current use). Among waterpipe ever users, 60% had ever smoked cigarettes in comparison to 32% of non-waterpipe smokers (95% confidence interval 1.4-7.9). The odds of having ever smoked waterpipe were three times higher among male high school seniors as well as students with lower grades. Waterpipe ever users had three times higher odds of having higher levels of sensation-seeking (95% confidence interval 1.2-9.5) and scored high on the depression scales (95% confidence interval 1.6-6.8) than non-users. The odds of waterpipe ever use were four times higher for those who perceived waterpipe products to have pleasant smell compared to cigarettes (95% confidence interval 1.7-9.8). Waterpipe ever users were twice as likely to have seen waterpipe use on television compared to non-users (95% confidence interval 1.1-5.7). The odds of having friends who smoked regularly was eight times higher for waterpipe ever users than non-users (95% confidence interval 2.1-31.2). The current study reports a high use of waterpipe in a select group of students in northern Sweden. The study adds the importance of looking at socioecological determinants of use, including peer pressure and exposure to media marketing, as well as mental health among users.

To be involved or not to be involved: a survey of public preferences for self-involvement in decision-making involving mental capacity (competency) within Europe.

PubMed

Daveson, Barbara A; Bausewein, Claudia; Murtagh, Fliss E M; Calanzani, Natalia; Higginson, Irene J; Harding, Richard; Cohen, Joachim; Simon, Steffen T; Deliens, Luc; Bechinger-English, Dorothee; Hall, Sue; Koffman, Jonathan; Ferreira, Pedro Lopes; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Haugen, Dagny F; Gomes, Barbara

2013-05-01

The Council of Europe has recommended that member states of European Union encourage their citizens to make decisions about their healthcare before they lose capacity to do so. However, it is unclear whether the public wants to make such decisions beforehand. To examine public preferences for self-involvement in end-of-life care decision-making and identify associated factors. A population-based survey with 9344 adults in England, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Across countries, 74% preferred self-involvement when capable; 44% preferred self-involvement when incapable through, for example, a living will. Four factors were associated with a preference for self-involvement across capacity and incapacity scenarios, respectively: higher educational attainment ((odds ratio = 1.93-2.77), (odds ratio = 1.33-1.80)); female gender ((odds ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval = 1.14-1.41), (odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.20-1.42)); younger-middle age ((30-59 years: odds ratio = 1.24-1.40), (50-59 years: odds ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.46)) and valuing quality over quantity of life or valuing both equally ((odds ratio = 1.49-1.58), (odds ratio = 1.35-1.53)). Those with increased financial hardship (odds ratio = 0.64-0.83) and a preference to die in hospital (not a palliative care unit) (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.88), a nursing home or residential care (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.54-0.99) were less likely to prefer self-involvement when capable. For the incapacity scenario, single people were more likely to prefer self-involvement (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval = 1.18-1.53). Self-involvement in decision-making is important to the European public. However, a large proportion of the public prefer to not make decisions about their care in advance of incapacity. Financial hardship, educational attainment, age, and preferences regarding quality and quantity of life require further examination; these factors should be considered in relation to policy.

Practice Patterns and Outcomes for Pemetrexed Plus Platinum Doublet as Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Adenocarcinomas of Lung: Looking Beyond the Usual Paradigm.

PubMed

Noronha, V; Zanwar, S; Joshi, A; Patil, V M; Mahajan, A; Janu, A; Agarwal, J P; Bhargava, P; Kapoor, A; Prabhash, K

2018-01-01

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is the standard of care in non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) with locally advanced N2 disease. There is a scarcity of data for the pemetrexed-platinum regimen as NACT. Also, apart from N2 disease, the role of NACT in locally advanced NSCLCs for tumour downstaging is unclear. Non-metastatic adenocarcinomas of lung treated with pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT were analysed. The patients with locoregionally advanced N2 disease and those who were borderline candidates for upfront definitive treatment were planned for NACT after discussion in a multidisciplinary clinic. In total, four cycles of 3-weekly pemetrexed and platinum were delivered in the combined neoadjuvant and adjuvant setting. A response assessment was carried out using RECIST criteria. Progression-free (PFS) and overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Of 114 patients, 96 evaluable patients received NACT with pemetrexed-platinum. The most common indication for NACT was N2 disease at baseline (46.8%). The objective response rate was 36.4% (95% confidence interval 22-52%), including two complete and 32 partial responses, whereas 12.5% of patients had progressive disease on NACT. The median PFS was 14 months (95% confidence interval 10.7-17.3) and the median overall survival was 22 months (95% confidence interval 15.6-28.4) at a median follow-up of 16 months. There was a significant improvement in the overall survival of patients undergoing definitive therapy versus no definitive therapy (median overall survival 25 months [95% confidence interval 19.6-30.4] versus 12 months [95% confidence interval 3.2-20.7], respectively; P = 0.015, hazard ratio 0.56 [95% confidence interval 0.3-0.9]). Among patients who could not undergo definitive chemoradiation upfront due to dosimetric constraints (n = 34), 24 (70.6%) patients finally underwent definitive therapy after NACT. Pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT seems to be an effective option and many borderline cases, where upfront definitive therapy is not feasible, may become amenable to the same after incorporation of NACT. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Provider use of a participatory decision-making style with youth and caregivers and satisfaction with pediatric asthma visits.

PubMed

Sleath, Betsy; Carpenter, Delesha M; Coyne, Imelda; Davis, Scott A; Hayes Watson, Claire; Loughlin, Ceila E; Garcia, Nacire; Reuland, Daniel S; Tudor, Gail E

2018-01-01

We conducted a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of an asthma question prompt list with video intervention to engage the youth during clinic visits. We examined whether the intervention was associated with 1) providers including youth and caregiver inputs more into asthma treatment regimens, 2) youth and caregivers rating providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style, and 3) youth and caregivers being more satisfied with visits. English- or Spanish-speaking youth aged 11-17 years with persistent asthma and their caregivers were recruited from four pediatric clinics and randomized to the intervention or usual care groups. The youth in the intervention group watched the video with their caregivers on an iPad and completed a one-page asthma question prompt list before their clinic visits. All visits were audiotaped. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data. Forty providers and their patients (n=359) participated in this study. Providers included youth input into the asthma management treatment regimens during 2.5% of visits and caregiver input during 3.3% of visits. The youth in the intervention group were significantly more likely to rate their providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style (odds ratio=1.7, 95% confidence interval=1.1, 2.5). White caregivers were significantly more likely to rate the providers as more participatory (odds ratio=2.3, 95% confidence interval=1.2, 4.4). Youth (beta=4.9, 95% confidence interval=3.3, 6.5) and caregivers (beta=7.5, 95% confidence interval=3.1, 12.0) who rated their providers as being more participatory were significantly more satisfied with their visits. Youth (beta=-1.9, 95% confidence interval=-3.4, -0.4) and caregivers (beta=-8.8, 95% confidence interval=-16.2, -1.3) who spoke Spanish at home were less satisfied with visits. The intervention did not increase the inclusion of youth and caregiver inputs into asthma treatment regimens. However, it did increase the youth's perception of participatory decision-making style of the providers, and this in turn was associated with greater satisfaction.

Clinical impact and predictors of complete ST segment resolution after primary percutaneous coronary intervention: A subanalysis of the ATLANTIC Trial.

PubMed

Fabris, Enrico; van 't Hof, Arnoud; Hamm, Christian W; Lapostolle, Frédéric; Lassen, Jens F; Goodman, Shaun G; Ten Berg, Jurriën M; Bolognese, Leonardo; Cequier, Angel; Chettibi, Mohamed; Hammett, Christopher J; Huber, Kurt; Janzon, Magnus; Merkely, Béla; Storey, Robert F; Zeymer, Uwe; Cantor, Warren J; Tsatsaris, Anne; Kerneis, Mathieu; Diallo, Abdourahmane; Vicaut, Eric; Montalescot, Gilles

2017-08-01

In the ATLANTIC (Administration of Ticagrelor in the catheterization laboratory or in the Ambulance for New ST elevation myocardial Infarction to open the Coronary artery) trial the early use of aspirin, anticoagulation, and ticagrelor coupled with very short medical contact-to-balloon times represent good indicators of optimal treatment of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and an ideal setting to explore which factors may influence coronary reperfusion beyond a well-established pre-hospital system. This study sought to evaluate predictors of complete ST-segment resolution after percutaneous coronary intervention in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients enrolled in the ATLANTIC trial. ST-segment analysis was performed on electrocardiograms recorded at the time of inclusion (pre-hospital electrocardiogram), and one hour after percutaneous coronary intervention (post-percutaneous coronary intervention electrocardiogram) by an independent core laboratory. Complete ST-segment resolution was defined as ≥70% ST-segment resolution. Complete ST-segment resolution occurred post-percutaneous coronary intervention in 54.9% ( n=800/1456) of patients and predicted lower 30-day composite major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (odds ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.65; p<0.01), definite stent thrombosis (odds ratio 0.18, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.88; p=0.03), and total mortality (odds ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.97; p=0.04). In multivariate analysis, independent negative predictors of complete ST-segment resolution were the time from symptoms to pre-hospital electrocardiogram (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.98; p<0.01) and diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.83; p<0.01); pre-hospital ticagrelor treatment showed a favorable trend for complete ST-segment resolution (odds ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.51; p=0.06). This study confirmed that post-percutaneous coronary intervention complete ST-segment resolution is a valid surrogate marker for cardiovascular clinical outcomes. In the current era of ST-elevation myocardial infarction reperfusion, patients' delay and diabetes mellitus are independent predictors of poor reperfusion and need specific attention in the future.

Circulating tocopherols and risk of coronary artery disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Guangxiao; Li, Ying; Chen, Xin; Sun, Hao; Hou, Xiaowen; Shi, Jingpu

2016-05-01

Circulating level of tocopherols was supposed to be associated with risk of coronary artery disease. However, the results from previous studies remain controversial. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis based on observational studies to evaluate the association between circulating tocopherols and coronary artery disease risk for the first time. Meta-analysis. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched to retrieve articles published during January 1995 and May 2015. Articles were included if they provided sufficient information to calculate the weighted mean difference and its corresponding 95% confidence interval. Circulating level of total tocopherols was significantly lower in coronary artery disease patients than that in controls (weighted mean difference -4.33 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -6.74 to -1.91, P < 0.01). However, circulating α-tocopherol alone was not significantly associated with coronary artery disease risk. Results from subgroup analyses showed that a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was merely associated with higher coronary artery disease risk in studies with higher sex ratio in cases (<2, weighted mean difference -0.07 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -1.15 to 1.00, P = 0.90; ≥ 2, weighted mean difference -6.00 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.76 to -2.22, P < 0.01). Similarly, a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was associated with early onset coronary artery disease rather than late onset coronary artery disease (<60 years, weighted mean difference -5.40 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.22 to -1.57, P < 0.01; ≥ 60 years, weighted mean difference -1.37 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -3.48 to 0.74, P = 0.20). We also found some discrepancies in circulating total tocopherols when the studies were stratified by matching status and assay methods. Our findings suggest that a deficiency in circulating total tocopherols might be associated with higher coronary artery disease risk. Whereas circulating α-tocopherol alone could not protect us from developing coronary artery disease. Further prospective studies were warranted to confirm our findings. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Garimella, Pranav S; Jaber, Bertrand L; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M; Sarnak, Mark J

2017-01-06

AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery

PubMed Central

Garimella, Pranav S.; Jaber, Bertrand L.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R.; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. Design, setting, participants, & measurements A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on–pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Results Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Conclusions Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. PMID:27797887

Association of CKD with Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

PubMed Central

Kaier, Klaus; Kaleschke, Gerrit; Gebauer, Katrin; Meyborg, Matthias; Malyar, Nasser M.; Freisinger, Eva; Baumgartner, Helmut; Reinecke, Holger; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Despitethe multiple depicted associations of CKD with reduced cardiovascular and overall prognoses, the association of CKD with outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation has still not been well described. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data from all hospitalized patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in Germany were evaluated regarding influence of CKD, even in the earlier stages, on morbidity, in-hospital outcomes, and costs. Results A total of 28,716 patients were treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. A total of 11,189 (39.0%) suffered from CKD. Patients with CKD were predominantly women; had higher rates of comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, heart failure at New York Heart Association 3/4, peripheral artery disease, and diabetes; and had a 1.3-fold higher estimated logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation value. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with CKD stage ≥3 (up to odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.17; P<0.05), bleeding was independently associated with CKD stage ≥4 (up to odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.47 to 2.24; P<0.001), and AKI was independently associated with CKD stages 3 (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 2.06) and 4 (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.83 both P<0.001). The stroke risk, in contrast, was lower for patients with CKD stages 4 (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.33) and 5 (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.39; both P<0.001). Lengths of hospital stay were, on average, 1.2-fold longer, whereas reimbursements were, on average, only 1.03-fold higher in patients who suffered from CKD. Conclusions This analysis illustrates for the first time on a nationwide basis the association of CKD with adverse outcomes in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Thus, classification of CKD stages before transcatheter aortic valve implantation is important for appropriate risk stratification. PMID:28289067

Association of CKD with Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

PubMed

Lüders, Florian; Kaier, Klaus; Kaleschke, Gerrit; Gebauer, Katrin; Meyborg, Matthias; Malyar, Nasser M; Freisinger, Eva; Baumgartner, Helmut; Reinecke, Holger; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-05-08

Despitethe multiple depicted associations of CKD with reduced cardiovascular and overall prognoses, the association of CKD with outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation has still not been well described. Data from all hospitalized patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in Germany were evaluated regarding influence of CKD, even in the earlier stages, on morbidity, in-hospital outcomes, and costs. A total of 28,716 patients were treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. A total of 11,189 (39.0%) suffered from CKD. Patients with CKD were predominantly women; had higher rates of comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, heart failure at New York Heart Association 3/4, peripheral artery disease, and diabetes; and had a 1.3-fold higher estimated logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation value. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with CKD stage ≥3 (up to odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.17; P <0.05), bleeding was independently associated with CKD stage ≥4 (up to odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.47 to 2.24; P <0.001), and AKI was independently associated with CKD stages 3 (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 2.06) and 4 (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.83 both P <0.001). The stroke risk, in contrast, was lower for patients with CKD stages 4 (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.33) and 5 (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.39; both P <0.001). Lengths of hospital stay were, on average, 1.2-fold longer, whereas reimbursements were, on average, only 1.03-fold higher in patients who suffered from CKD. This analysis illustrates for the first time on a nationwide basis the association of CKD with adverse outcomes in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Thus, classification of CKD stages before transcatheter aortic valve implantation is important for appropriate risk stratification. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Combined metformin-clomiphene in clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Abu Hashim, Hatem; Foda, Osama; Ghayaty, Essam

2015-09-01

Our objective was to compare the effectiveness of metformin plus clomiphene citrate vs. gonadotrophins, laparoscopic ovarian diathermy, aromatase inhibitors, N-acetyl-cysteine and other insulin sensitizers+clomiphene for improving fertility outcomes in women with clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome. PubMed, SCOPUS and CENTRAL databases were searched until April 2014 with the key words: PCOS, polycystic ovary syndrome, metformin, clomiphene citrate, ovulation induction and pregnancy. The search was limited to articles conducted with humans and published in English. The PRISMA statement was followed. Twelve randomized controlled trials (n = 1411 women) were included. Ovulation and clinical pregnancy rates per woman randomized. Compared with gonadotrophins, the metformin+clomiphene combination resulted in significantly fewer ovulations (odds ratio 0.25; 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.41; p < 0.00001, 3 trials, I(2) = 85%, n = 323) and pregnancies (odds ratio 0.45; 95% confidence interval 0.27-0.75; p = 0.002, 3 trials, I(2) = 0%, n = 323). No significant differences were found when metformin+clomiphene was compared with laparoscopic ovarian diathermy (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.47; p = 0.62, 1 trial, n = 282; odds ratio 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.60-1.54; p = 0.88, 2 trials, I(2) = 0%, n = 332, for ovulation and pregnancy rates, respectively). Likewise, no differences were observed in comparison with aromatase inhibitors (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.58-1.34; p = 0.55, 3 trials, I(2) = 3%, n = 409; odds ratio 0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.36; p = 0.50, 2 trials, n = 309, for ovulation and pregnancy rates, respectively). There is evidence for the superiority of gonadotrophins, but the metformin+clomiphene combination is mainly relevant for clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome patients and, if not effective, a next step could be gonadotrophins. More attempts with metformin+clomiphene are only relevant if there is limited access to gonadotrophins. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Extreme Mean and Its Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.

1979-01-01

Extreme value statistics obtained from normally distributed data are considered. An extreme mean is defined as the mean of p-th probability truncated normal distribution. An unbiased estimate of this extreme mean and its large sample distribution are derived. The distribution of this estimate even for very large samples is found to be nonnormal. Further, as the sample size increases, the variance of the unbiased estimate converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The computer program used to obtain the density and distribution functions of the standardized unbiased estimate, and the confidence intervals of the extreme mean for any data are included for ready application. An example is included to demonstrate the usefulness of extreme mean application.

An empirical Bayes method for updating inferences in analysis of quantitative trait loci using information from related genome scans.

PubMed

Zhang, Kui; Wiener, Howard; Beasley, Mark; George, Varghese; Amos, Christopher I; Allison, David B

2006-08-01

Individual genome scans for quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping often suffer from low statistical power and imprecise estimates of QTL location and effect. This lack of precision yields large confidence intervals for QTL location, which are problematic for subsequent fine mapping and positional cloning. In prioritizing areas for follow-up after an initial genome scan and in evaluating the credibility of apparent linkage signals, investigators typically examine the results of other genome scans of the same phenotype and informally update their beliefs about which linkage signals in their scan most merit confidence and follow-up via a subjective-intuitive integration approach. A method that acknowledges the wisdom of this general paradigm but formally borrows information from other scans to increase confidence in objectivity would be a benefit. We developed an empirical Bayes analytic method to integrate information from multiple genome scans. The linkage statistic obtained from a single genome scan study is updated by incorporating statistics from other genome scans as prior information. This technique does not require that all studies have an identical marker map or a common estimated QTL effect. The updated linkage statistic can then be used for the estimation of QTL location and effect. We evaluate the performance of our method by using extensive simulations based on actual marker spacing and allele frequencies from available data. Results indicate that the empirical Bayes method can account for between-study heterogeneity, estimate the QTL location and effect more precisely, and provide narrower confidence intervals than results from any single individual study. We also compared the empirical Bayes method with a method originally developed for meta-analysis (a closely related but distinct purpose). In the face of marked heterogeneity among studies, the empirical Bayes method outperforms the comparator.

Reflexion on linear regression trip production modelling method for ensuring good model quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suprayitno, Hitapriya; Ratnasari, Vita

2017-11-01

Transport Modelling is important. For certain cases, the conventional model still has to be used, in which having a good trip production model is capital. A good model can only be obtained from a good sample. Two of the basic principles of a good sampling is having a sample capable to represent the population characteristics and capable to produce an acceptable error at a certain confidence level. It seems that this principle is not yet quite understood and used in trip production modeling. Therefore, investigating the Trip Production Modelling practice in Indonesia and try to formulate a better modeling method for ensuring the Model Quality is necessary. This research result is presented as follows. Statistics knows a method to calculate span of prediction value at a certain confidence level for linear regression, which is called Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. The common modeling practice uses R2 as the principal quality measure, the sampling practice varies and not always conform to the sampling principles. An experiment indicates that small sample is already capable to give excellent R2 value and sample composition can significantly change the model. Hence, good R2 value, in fact, does not always mean good model quality. These lead to three basic ideas for ensuring good model quality, i.e. reformulating quality measure, calculation procedure, and sampling method. A quality measure is defined as having a good R2 value and a good Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. Calculation procedure must incorporate statistical calculation method and appropriate statistical tests needed. A good sampling method must incorporate random well distributed stratified sampling with a certain minimum number of samples. These three ideas need to be more developed and tested.

Associations of High-Grade Glioma With Glioma Risk Alleles and Histories of Allergy and Smoking

PubMed Central

Lachance, Daniel H.; Yang, Ping; Johnson, Derek R.; Decker, Paul A.; Kollmeyer, Thomas M.; McCoy, Lucie S.; Rice, Terri; Xiao, Yuanyuan; Ali-Osman, Francis; Wang, Frances; Stoddard, Shawn M.; Sprau, Debra J.; Kosel, Matthew L.; Wiencke, John K.; Wiemels, Joseph L.; Patoka, Joseph S.; Davis, Faith; McCarthy, Bridget; Rynearson, Amanda L.; Worra, Joel B.; Fridley, Brooke L.; O’Neill, Brian Patrick; Buckner, Jan C.; Il’yasova, Dora; Jenkins, Robert B.; Wrensch, Margaret R.

2011-01-01

Glioma risk has consistently been inversely associated with allergy history but not with smoking history despite putative biologic plausibility. Data from 855 high-grade glioma cases and 1,160 controls from 4 geographic regions of the United States during 1997–2008 were analyzed for interactions between allergy and smoking histories and inherited variants in 5 established glioma risk regions: 5p15.3 (TERT), 8q24.21 (CCDC26/MLZE), 9p21.3 (CDKN2B), 11q23.3 (PHLDB1/DDX6), and 20q13.3 (RTEL1). The inverse relation between allergy and glioma was stronger among those who did not (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.28, 0.58) versus those who did (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.97; Pinteraction = 0.02) carry the 9p21.3 risk allele. However, the inverse association with allergy was stronger among those who carried (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.44, 95% confidence interval: 0.29, 0.68) versus those who did not carry (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.86) the 20q13.3 glioma risk allele, but this interaction was not statistically significant (P = 0.14). No relation was observed between glioma risk and smoking (odds ratio = 0.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.77, 1.10; P = 0.37), and there were no interactions for glioma risk of smoking history with any of the risk alleles. The authors’ observations are consistent with a recent report that the inherited glioma risk variants in chromosome regions 9p21.3 and 20q13.3 may modify the inverse association of allergy and glioma. PMID:21742680

Gastric dilation-volvulus in dogs attending UK emergency-care veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors and survival.

PubMed

O'Neill, D G; Case, J; Boag, A K; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

2017-11-01

To report prevalence, risk factors and clinical outcomes for presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus diagnosed among an emergency-care population of UK dogs. The study used a cross-sectional design using emergency-care veterinary clinical records from the VetCompass Programme spanning September 1, 2012 to February 28, 2014 and risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression modelling. The study population comprised 77,088 dogs attending 50 Vets Now clinics. Overall, 492 dogs had presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus diagnoses, giving a prevalence of 0·64% (95% Confidence interval: 0·58 to 0·70%). Compared with cross-bred dogs, breeds with the highest odds ratios for the diagnosis of presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus were the great Dane (odds ratio: 114·3, 95% Confidence interval 55·1 to 237·1, P<0·001), akita (odds ratio: 84·4, 95% Confidence interval 33·6 to 211·9, P<0·001) and dogue de Bordeaux (odds ratio: 82·9, 95% Confidence interval 39·0 to 176·3, P<0·001). Odds increased as dogs aged up to 12 years and neutered male dogs had 1·3 (95% Confidence interval 1·0 to 1·8, P=0·041) times the odds compared with entire females. Of the cases that were presented alive, 49·7% survived to discharge overall, but 79·3% of surgical cases survived to discharge. Approximately 80% of surgically managed cases survived to discharge. Certain large breeds were highly predisposed. © 2017 British Small Animal Veterinary Association.

Diagnostic accuracy of intracellular mycobacterium tuberculosis detection for tuberculous meningitis.

PubMed

Feng, Guo-dong; Shi, Ming; Ma, Lei; Chen, Ping; Wang, Bing-ju; Zhang, Min; Chang, Xiao-lin; Su, Xiu-chu; Yang, Yi-ning; Fan, Xin-hong; Dai, Wen; Liu, Ting-ting; He, Ying; Bian, Ting; Duan, Li-xin; Li, Jin-ge; Hao, Xiao-ke; Liu, Jia-yun; Xue, Xin; Song, Yun-zhang; Wu, Hai-qin; Niu, Guo-qiang; Zhang, Li; Han, Cui-juan; Lin, Hong; Lin, Zhi-hui; Liu, Jian-jun; Jian, Qian; Zhang, Jin-she; Tian, Ye; Zhou, Bai-yu; Wang, Jing; Xue, Chang-hu; Han, Xiao-fang; Wang, Jian-feng; Wang, Shou-lian; Thwaites, Guy E; Zhao, Gang

2014-02-15

Early diagnosis and treatment of tuberculous meningitis saves lives, but current laboratory diagnostic tests lack sensitivity. We investigated whether the detection of intracellular bacteria by a modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain and early secretory antigen target (ESAT)-6 in cerebrospinal fluid leukocytes improves tuberculous meningitis diagnosis. Cerebrospinal fluid specimens from patients with suspected tuberculous meningitis were stained by conventional Ziehl-Neelsen stain, a modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain involving cytospin slides with Triton processing, and an ESAT-6 immunocytochemical stain. Acid-fast bacteria and ESAT-6-expressing leukocytes were detected by microscopy. All tests were performed prospectively in a central laboratory by experienced technicians masked to the patients' final diagnosis. Two hundred and eighty patients with suspected tuberculous meningitis were enrolled. Thirty-seven had Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultured from cerebrospinal fluid; 40 had a microbiologically confirmed alternative diagnosis; the rest had probable or possible tuberculous meningitis according to published criteria. Against a clinical diagnostic gold standard the sensitivity of conventional Ziehl-Neelsen stain was 3.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.6-6.7%), compared with 82.9% (95% confidence interval, 77.4-87.3%) for modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain and 75.1% (95% confidence interval, 68.8-80.6%) for ESAT-6 immunostain. Intracellular bacteria were seen in 87.8% of the slides positive by the modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain. The specificity of modified Ziehl-Neelsen and ESAT-6 stain was 85.0% (95% confidence interval, 69.4-93.8%) and 90.0% (95% confidence interval, 75.4-96.7%), respectively. Enhanced bacterial detection by simple modification of the Ziehl-Neelsen stain and an ESAT-6 intracellular stain improve the laboratory diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis.

Dietary acid, age, and serum bicarbonate levels among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Amodu, Afolarin; Abramowitz, Matthew K

2013-12-01

Greater dietary acid has been associated with lower serum bicarbonate levels in patients with CKD. Whether this association extends to the general population and if it is modified by age are unknown. This study examined the association of the dietary acid load, estimated by net endogenous acid production, with serum bicarbonate levels in adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004. The mean serum bicarbonate was 24.9 mEq/L (SEM=0.1), and the mean estimated net endogenous acid production was 57.4 mEq/d (SEM=0.4). Serum bicarbonate was linearly associated with age, such that the oldest participants had the highest serum bicarbonate levels. After multivariable adjustment, participants in the highest quartile of net endogenous acid production had 0.40 mEq/L (95% confidence interval, -0.55 to -0.26) lower serum bicarbonate and a 33% (95% confidence interval, 3 to 72) higher likelihood of acidosis compared with those participants in the lowest quartile. There was a significant interaction by age of the association of net endogenous acid production with serum bicarbonate (P=0.005). Among participants 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 years old, those participants in the highest net endogenous acid production quartile had 0.26 (95% confidence interval, -0.49 to -0.03), 0.60 (95% confidence interval, -0.92 to -0.29), and 0.49 (95% confidence interval, -0.84 to -0.14) mEq/L lower serum bicarbonate, respectively, compared with participants in the lowest quartile. Greater dietary acid is associated with lower serum bicarbonate in the general US population, and the magnitude of this association is greater among middle-aged and elderly persons than younger adults.

Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2011-04-15

The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

Comparative factor analysis of the effect of postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition on recovery of right lobe liver donors.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chia-En; Lin, Kuo-Hua; Lin, Chia-Cheng; Hwu, Yueh-Juen; Lin, Ping-Yi; Lin, Hui-Chuan; Ko, Chih-Jan; Wang, Su-Han; Chen, Yao-Li

2015-04-01

Intensive nutritional support can reduce the catabolic response, improve protein synthesis, and promote liver regeneration. This study examined whether postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition may improve recovery and reduce the length of hospital stay in right lobe liver donors. In this retrospective study, we enrolled liver donors with residual liver volume < 50%. Donors were classified into 2 groups: donors who received (n = 44) or did not receive (n = 40) postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition. Liver function tests included alanine aminotransferase and total bilirubin levels, and postoperative complications included pleural effusion, atelectasis, and wound complications. Hospital length of stay was included as a potential risk factor for the evaluation of the effect of postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition on recovery of right lobe liver donors. Male sex (β, 22.04; 95% confidence interval: 6.22 - 37.86) was a significant predictor of changes in postoperative alanine aminotransferase level. Male sex (β, 0.045; 95% confidence interval: 0.16 - 37.86) and receipt of peripheral parenteral nutrition (β, -0.045; 95% confidence interval: -0.72 - 0.17) were significant predictors of changes in total bilirubin level. Postoperative atelectasis (P < .001), pleural effusion (P < .011), and total complications (P = .015) had significantly lower incidence in the peripheral parenteral nutrition than control group. Multivariate logistic regression showed that recipients of peripheral parenteral nutrition (odds ratio, 0.161; 95% confidence interval: 0.043 - 0.598) and age (odds ratio, 0.870; 95% confidence interval: 0.782 - 0.968) were significant preoperative risk factors for postoperative complications. Postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition is associated with a lower incidence of pleural effusion and atelectasis, a more rapid recovery of hyperbilirubinemia, and shorter length of stay in right lobe liver donors.

Intrauterine fetal death and risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery.

PubMed

Larsen, Sandra; Dobbin, Joanna; McCallion, Oliver; Eskild, Anne

2016-12-01

Vaginal delivery is recommended after intrauterine fetal death. However, little is known about the risk of shoulder dystocia in these deliveries. We studied whether intrauterine fetal death increases the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery. In this population-based register study using the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, we included all singleton pregnancies with vaginal delivery of offspring in cephalic presentation in Norway during the period 1967-2012 (n = 2 266 118). Risk of shoulder dystocia was estimated as absolute risk (%) and odds ratio with 95% confidence interval. Adjustment was made for offspring birthweight (in grams). We performed sub-analyses within categories of birthweight (<4000 and ≥4000 g) and in pregnancies with maternal diabetes. Shoulder dystocia occurred in 1.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 0.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.0001) (crude odds ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2-4.9). After adjustment for birthweight, the odds ratio was 5.9 (95% confidence interval 4.7-7.4). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g, shoulder dystocia occurred in 14.6% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 2.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 5.9, 95% confidence interval 4.5-7.9). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g and concurrent maternal diabetes, shoulder dystocia occurred in 57.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and 9.6% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 12.6, 95% confidence interval 5.9-26.9). Intrauterine fetal death increased the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery, and the absolute risk of shoulder dystocia was particularly high if offspring birthweight was high and the mother had diabetes. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology after childbirth - A Croatian longitudinal study.

PubMed

Srkalović Imširagić, Azijada; Begić, Dražen; Šimičević, Livija; Bajić, Žarko

2017-02-01

Following childbirth, a vast number of women experience some degree of mood swings, while some experience symptoms of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder. Using a biopsychosocial model, the primary aim of this study was to identify predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder and its symptomatology following childbirth. This observational, longitudinal study included 372 postpartum women. In order to explore biopsychosocial predictors, participants completed several questionnaires 3-5 days after childbirth: the Impact of Events Scale Revised, the Big Five Inventory, The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, breastfeeding practice and social and demographic factors. Six to nine weeks after childbirth, participants re-completed the questionnaires regarding psychiatric symptomatology and breastfeeding practice. Using a multivariate level of analysis, the predictors that increased the likelihood of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the first study phase were: emergency caesarean section (odds ratio 2.48; confidence interval 1.13-5.43) and neuroticism personality trait (odds ratio 1.12; confidence interval 1.05-1.20). The predictor that increased the likelihood of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the second study phase was the baseline Impact of Events Scale Revised score (odds ratio 12.55; confidence interval 4.06-38.81). Predictors that decreased the likelihood of symptomatology at the second study phase were life in a nuclear family (odds ratio 0.27; confidence interval 0.09-0.77) and life in a city (odds ratio 0.29; confidence interval 0.09-0.94). Biopsychosocial theory is applicable to postpartum psychiatric disorders. In addition to screening for depression amongst postpartum women, there is a need to include other postpartum psychiatric symptomatology screenings in routine practice. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam

PubMed Central

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-01-01

Background To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12–15 years of age in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Design Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants 2238 secondary school children. Methods Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Main Outcome Measures Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. Results The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5–26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8–15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (–0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8–28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0–0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2–1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Conclusions Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. PMID:24299145

High definition versus standard definition white light endoscopy for detecting dysplasia in patients with Barrett's esophagus.

PubMed

Sami, S S; Subramanian, V; Butt, W M; Bejkar, G; Coleman, J; Mannath, J; Ragunath, K

2015-01-01

High-definition endoscopy systems provide superior image resolution. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of high definition compared with standard definition endoscopy system for detecting dysplastic lesions in patients with Barrett's esophagus. A retrospective cohort study of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus undergoing routine surveillance was performed. Data were retrieved from the central hospital electronic database. Procedures performed for non-surveillance indications, Barrett's esophagus Prague C0M1 classification with no specialized intestinal metaplasia on histology, patients diagnosed with any dysplasia or cancer on index endoscopy, and procedures using advanced imaging techniques were excluded. Logistic regression models were constructed to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals comparing outcomes with standard definition and high-definition systems. The high definition was superior to standard definition system in targeted detection of all dysplastic lesions (odds ratio 3.27, 95% confidence interval 1.27-8.40) as well as overall dysplasia detected on both random and target biopsies (odds ratio 2.36, 95% confidence interval 1.50-3.72). More non-dysplastic lesions were detected with the high-definition system (odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.33). There was no difference between high definition and standard definition endoscopy in the overall (random and target) high-grade dysplasia or cancers detected (odds ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.83-1.04). Trainee endoscopists, number of biopsies taken, and male sex were all significantly associated with a higher yield for dysplastic lesions. The use of the high-definition endoscopy system is associated with better targeted detection of any dysplasia during routine Barrett's esophagus surveillance. However, high-definition endoscopy cannot replace random biopsies at present time. © 2014 International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam.

PubMed

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-04-01

To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12-15 years of age in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Prospective, cross-sectional study. 2238 secondary school children. Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5-26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8-15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (-0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8-28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0-0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical & Experimental Ophthalmology published by Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd on behalf of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Impact of Time to Treatment Initiation in Patients with Human Papillomavirus-positive and -negative Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Grønhøj, C; Jensen, D; Dehlendorff, C; Nørregaard, C; Andersen, E; Specht, L; Charabi, B; von Buchwald, C

2018-06-01

The distinct difference in disease phenotype of human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) and -negative (HPV-) oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) patients might also be apparent when assessing the effect of time to treatment initiation (TTI). We assessed the overall survival and progression-free survival (PFS) effect from increasing TTI for HPV+ and HPV- OPSCC patients. We examined patients who received curative-intended therapy for OPSCC in eastern Denmark between 2000 and 2014. TTI was the number of days from diagnosis to the initiation of curative treatment. Overall survival and PFS were measured from the start of treatment and estimated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated with Cox proportional hazard regression. At a median follow-up of 3.6 years (interquartile range 1.86-6.07 years), 1177 patients were included (59% HPV+). In the adjusted analysis for the HPV+ and HPV- patient population, TTI influenced overall survival and PFS, most evident in the HPV- group, where TTI >60 days statistically significantly influenced overall survival but not PFS (overall survival: hazard ratio 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.04-2.45; PFS: hazard ratio 1.46; 95% confidence interval 0.96-2.22). For patients with a TTI >60 days in the HPV+ group, TTI affected overall survival and PFS similarly, with slightly lower hazard ratio estimates of 1.44 (95% confidence interval 0.83-2.51) and 1.15 (95% confidence interval 0.70-1.88), respectively. For patients treated for a HPV+ or HPV- OPSCC, TTI affects outcome, with the strongest effect for overall survival among HPV- patients. Reducing TTI is an important tool to improve the prognosis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Gene polymorphisms in folate metabolizing enzymes in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia: effects on methotrexate-related toxicity and survival

PubMed Central

Ongaro, Alessia; De Mattei, Monica; Della Porta, Matteo Giovanni; Rigolin, GianMatteo; Ambrosio, Cristina; Di Raimondo, Francesco; Pellati, Agnese; Masieri, Federica Francesca; Caruso, Angelo; Catozzi, Linda; Gemmati, Donato

2009-01-01

Background The antifolate agent methotrexate is an important component of maintenance therapy in acute lymphoblastic leukemia, although methotrexate-related toxicity is often a reason for interruption of chemotherapy. Prediction of toxicity is difficult because of inter-individual variability susceptibility to antileukemic agents. Methotrexate interferes with folate metabolism leading to depletion of reduced folates. Design and Methods The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of polymorphisms for folate metabolizing enzymes with respect to toxicity and survival in adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with methotrexate maintenance therapy. To this purpose, we evaluated possible associations between genotype and hematologic and non-hematologic toxicity and effects on survival at 2 years of follow-up in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Results Polymorphisms in the genes encoding for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR 677C>T) and in dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR 19 bp deletion) significantly increased the risk of hepatotoxicity in single (odds ratio 5.23, 95% confidence interval 1.13–21.95 and odds ratio 4.57, 95% confidence interval 1.01–20.77, respectively) and in combined analysis (odds ratio 6.82, 95% confidence interval 1.38–33.59). MTHFR 677C>T also increased the risk of leukopenia and gastrointestinal toxicity, whilst thymidylate synthase 28 bp repeat polymorphism increased the risk of anemia (odds ratio 8.48, 95% confidence interval 2.00–36.09). Finally, patients with MTHFR 677TT had a decreased overall survival rate (hazard ratio 2.37, 95% confidence interval 1.46–8.45). Conclusions Genotyping of folate polymorphisms might be useful in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia to optimize methotrexate therapy, reducing the associated toxicity with possible effects on survival. PMID:19648163

The thresholds for statistical and clinical significance – a five-step procedure for evaluation of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Thresholds for statistical significance are insufficiently demonstrated by 95% confidence intervals or P-values when assessing results from randomised clinical trials. First, a P-value only shows the probability of getting a result assuming that the null hypothesis is true and does not reflect the probability of getting a result assuming an alternative hypothesis to the null hypothesis is true. Second, a confidence interval or a P-value showing significance may be caused by multiplicity. Third, statistical significance does not necessarily result in clinical significance. Therefore, assessment of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials deserves more rigour in order to become more valid. Methods Several methodologies for assessing the statistical and clinical significance of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials were considered. Balancing simplicity and comprehensiveness, a simple five-step procedure was developed. Results For a more valid assessment of results from a randomised clinical trial we propose the following five-steps: (1) report the confidence intervals and the exact P-values; (2) report Bayes factor for the primary outcome, being the ratio of the probability that a given trial result is compatible with a ‘null’ effect (corresponding to the P-value) divided by the probability that the trial result is compatible with the intervention effect hypothesised in the sample size calculation; (3) adjust the confidence intervals and the statistical significance threshold if the trial is stopped early or if interim analyses have been conducted; (4) adjust the confidence intervals and the P-values for multiplicity due to number of outcome comparisons; and (5) assess clinical significance of the trial results. Conclusions If the proposed five-step procedure is followed, this may increase the validity of assessments of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials. PMID:24588900

Parental use of sun protection for their children-does skin color matter?

PubMed

Tan, Marcus G; Nag, Shudeshna; Weinstein, Miriam

2018-03-01

Excessive sun exposure during childhood is a risk factor for skin cancer. This study aimed to compare the frequency of ideal sun protection use between parents with lighter- and darker-skinned children and explore their attitudes and beliefs on sun safety and their choice of sun protection. Parents of children aged 6 months to 6 years completed self-administered questionnaires about sun protection practices for their children. Parents assessed their child's Fitzpatrick phototype and were divided into lighter- (Fitzpatrick phototype I-III) and darker-skinned (Fitzpatrick phototype IV-VI) groups. Sun safety guidelines from the Canadian Dermatology Association were used to qualify ideal sun protection. A total of 183 parents were included. Overall, 31 parents (17%) used ideal sun protection for their children. As their children grew older, parents were less likely to use ideal sun protection (odds ratio = 0.69, 95% confidence interval = 0.53-0.90). Parents in the lighter-skinned group were more likely to use ideal sun protection for their children (odds ratio = 7.4, 95% confidence interval = 2.7-20.1), believe that sun exposure was harmful (odds ratio = 17.2, 95% confidence interval = 4.0-74.9), and perceive value in sun protection (odds ratio = 11.4, 95% confidence interval = 3.3-39.0); the darker-skinned group believed that darker skin tones provided more sun protection (odds ratio = 12.4, 95% confidence interval = 6.1-25.4). Ideal parental sun protection efforts are overall low, particularly in parents of darker-skinned children. The identified attitudes toward and beliefs about sun safety may aid in delivery of future sun protection interventions, especially in multiracial populations. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dietary Pattern and Risk of Hodgkin Lymphoma in a Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Epstein, Mara M.; Chang, Ellen T.; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T.; Batista, Julie L.; Ambinder, Richard F.; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E.; Birmann, Brenda M.

2015-01-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997–2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns (“vegetable,” “high meat,” “fruit/low-fat dairy,” “desserts/sweets”) using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. PMID:26182945

Dietary pattern and risk of hodgkin lymphoma in a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Epstein, Mara M; Chang, Ellen T; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T; Batista, Julie L; Ambinder, Richard F; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E; Birmann, Brenda M

2015-09-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997-2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns ("vegetable," "high meat," "fruit/low-fat dairy," "desserts/sweets") using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, W.; Ratkiewicz, A.; Ressler, J. J.

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

A numerical approach to 14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits: best fits and confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaauw, Maarten; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Mauquoy, Dmitri; van der Plicht, Johannes; van Geel, Bas

2003-06-01

14C wiggle-match dating (WMD) of peat deposits uses the non-linear relationship between 14C age and calendar age to match the shape of a sequence of closely spaced peat 14C dates with the 14C calibration curve. A numerical approach to WMD enables the quantitative assessment of various possible wiggle-match solutions and of calendar year confidence intervals for sequences of 14C dates. We assess the assumptions, advantages, and limitations of the method. Several case-studies show that WMD results in more precise chronologies than when individual 14C dates are calibrated. WMD is most successful during periods with major excursions in the 14C calibration curve (e.g., in one case WMD could narrow down confidence intervals from 230 to 36 yr).

Proportion of general factor variance in a hierarchical multiple-component measuring instrument: a note on a confidence interval estimation procedure.

PubMed

Raykov, Tenko; Zinbarg, Richard E

2011-05-01

A confidence interval construction procedure for the proportion of explained variance by a hierarchical, general factor in a multi-component measuring instrument is outlined. The method provides point and interval estimates for the proportion of total scale score variance that is accounted for by the general factor, which could be viewed as common to all components. The approach may also be used for testing composite (one-tailed) or simple hypotheses about this proportion, and is illustrated with a pair of examples. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Classical and Bayesian Seismic Yield Estimation: The 1998 Indian and Pakistani Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shumway, R. H.

2001-10-01

- The nuclear tests in May, 1998, in India and Pakistan have stimulated a renewed interest in yield estimation, based on limited data from uncalibrated test sites. We study here the problem of estimating yields using classical and Bayesian methods developed by Shumway (1992), utilizing calibration data from the Semipalatinsk test site and measured magnitudes for the 1998 Indian and Pakistani tests given by Murphy (1998). Calibration is done using multivariate classical or Bayesian linear regression, depending on the availability of measured magnitude-yield data and prior information. Confidence intervals for the classical approach are derived applying an extension of Fieller's method suggested by Brown (1982). In the case where prior information is available, the posterior predictive magnitude densities are inverted to give posterior intervals for yield. Intervals obtained using the joint distribution of magnitudes are comparable to the single-magnitude estimates produced by Murphy (1998) and reinforce the conclusion that the announced yields of the Indian and Pakistani tests were too high.

Classical and Bayesian Seismic Yield Estimation: The 1998 Indian and Pakistani Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shumway, R. H.

The nuclear tests in May, 1998, in India and Pakistan have stimulated a renewed interest in yield estimation, based on limited data from uncalibrated test sites. We study here the problem of estimating yields using classical and Bayesian methods developed by Shumway (1992), utilizing calibration data from the Semipalatinsk test site and measured magnitudes for the 1998 Indian and Pakistani tests given by Murphy (1998). Calibration is done using multivariate classical or Bayesian linear regression, depending on the availability of measured magnitude-yield data and prior information. Confidence intervals for the classical approach are derived applying an extension of Fieller's method suggested by Brown (1982). In the case where prior information is available, the posterior predictive magnitude densities are inverted to give posterior intervals for yield. Intervals obtained using the joint distribution of magnitudes are comparable to the single-magnitude estimates produced by Murphy (1998) and reinforce the conclusion that the announced yields of the Indian and Pakistani tests were too high.

Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

2014-05-01

One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input variable of different ANN structures [3]. The performance of each ANN structure is evaluated by the voting analysis based on eleven criteria, which are the root mean square error (RMSE), the correlation index (R), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the mean percentage error (MPE), the mean percentage error (ME), the percentage volume in errors (VE), the percentage error in peak (MF), the normalized mean bias error (NMBE), the normalized root mean bias error (NRMSE), the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) and the modified Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E1). The next day flow for the test set is calculated using the best ANN structure's model. Consequently, the confidence intervals of various confidence levels for training, evaluation and test sets are compared in order to explore the generalisation dynamics of confidence intervals from training and evaluation sets. [1] H.S. Hippert, C.E. Pedreira, R.C. Souza, "Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: A review and evaluation," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 16, no. 1, 2001, pp. 44-55. [2] G. J. Tsekouras, N.E. Mastorakis, F.D. Kanellos, V.T. Kontargyri, C.D. Tsirekis, I.S. Karanasiou, Ch.N. Elias, A.D. Salis, P.A. Kontaxis, A.A. Gialketsi: "Short term load forecasting in Greek interconnected power system using ANN: Confidence Interval using a novel re-sampling technique with corrective Factor", WSEAS International Conference on Circuits, Systems, Electronics, Control & Signal Processing, (CSECS '10), Vouliagmeni, Athens, Greece, December 29-31, 2010. [3] D. Panagoulia, I. Trichakis, G. J. Tsekouras: "Flow Forecasting via Artificial Neural Networks - A Study for Input Variables conditioned on atmospheric circulation", European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2012 (NH1.1 / AS1.16 - Extreme meteorological and hydrological events induced by severe weather and climate change), Vienna, Austria, 22-27 April 2012.

Razonamiento de Estudiantes Universitarios sobre Variabilidad e Intervalos de Confianza en un Contexto Inferencial Informal = University Students' Reasoning on Variability and Confidence Intervals in Inferential Informal Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inzunsa Cazares, Santiago

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a qualitative research with a group of 15 university students of social sciences on informal inferential reasoning developed in a computer environment on concepts involved in the confidence intervals. The results indicate that students developed a correct reasoning about sampling variability and visualized…

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 52 - Determination of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions From Stationary Sources by Continuous Monitors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean value... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean and... operation when the pollutant concentration at the time for the measurement is zero. 1.6Calibration Drift...

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 52 - Determination of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions From Stationary Sources by Continuous Monitors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean value... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean and... operation when the pollutant concentration at the time for the measurement is zero. 1.6Calibration Drift...

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 52 - Determination of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions From Stationary Sources by Continuous Monitors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean value... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean and... operation when the pollutant concentration at the time for the measurement is zero. 1.6Calibration Drift...

Lower Plasma Fetuin-A Levels Are Associated With a Higher Mortality Risk in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Chen, Xuechen; Zhang, Yuan; Chen, Qian; Li, Qing; Li, Yanping; Ling, Wenhua

2017-11-01

The present study was designed to evaluate the association of circulating fetuin-A with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. We measured plasma fetuin-A in 1620 patients using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. The patients were members of the Guangdong coronary artery disease cohort and were recruited between October 2008 and December 2011. Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between plasma fetuin-A and the risk of mortality. A total of 206 deaths were recorded during a median follow-up of 5.9 years, 146 of whom died from CVD. The hazard ratios for the second and third tertiles of the fetuin-A levels (using the first tertile as a reference) were 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.96) and 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.78) for CVD mortality ( P =0.005) and 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.91) and 0.48 (95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.70) for all-cause mortality ( P <0.001), respectively. Lower plasma fetuin-A levels were associated with an increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality in patients with coronary artery disease independently of traditional CVD risk factors. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Physical activity and mortality: is the association explained by genetic selection?

PubMed

Carlsson, Sofia; Andersson, Tomas; Lichtenstein, Paul; Michaëlsson, Karl; Ahlbom, Anders

2007-08-01

Public health recommendations promote physical activity to improve health and longevity. Recent data suggest that the association between physical activity and mortality may be due to genetic selection. Using data on twins, the authors investigated whether genetic selection explains the association between physical activity and mortality. Data were based on a postal questionnaire answered by 13,109 Swedish twin pairs in 1972. The national Cause of Death Register was used for information about all-cause mortality (n=1,800) and cardiovascular disease mortality (n=638) during 1975-2004. The risk of death was reduced by 34% for men (relative risk=0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 0.83) and by 25% for women (relative risk=0.75, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 1.14) reporting high physical activity levels. Within-pair comparisons of monozygotic twins showed that, compared with their less active co-twin, the more active twin had a 20% (odds ratio=0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.65, 0.99) reduced risk of all-cause mortality and a 32% (odds ratio=0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.49, 0.95) reduced risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. Results indicate that physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of mortality not due to genetic selection. This finding supports a causal link between physical activity and mortality.

Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

2017-01-01

Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

Statistical inference based on the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator under double-truncation.

PubMed

Emura, Takeshi; Konno, Yoshihiko; Michimae, Hirofumi

2015-07-01

Doubly truncated data consist of samples whose observed values fall between the right- and left- truncation limits. With such samples, the distribution function of interest is estimated using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) that is obtained through a self-consistency algorithm. Owing to the complicated asymptotic distribution of the NPMLE, the bootstrap method has been suggested for statistical inference. This paper proposes a closed-form estimator for the asymptotic covariance function of the NPMLE, which is computationally attractive alternative to bootstrapping. Furthermore, we develop various statistical inference procedures, such as confidence interval, goodness-of-fit tests, and confidence bands to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed covariance estimator. Simulations are performed to compare the proposed method with both the bootstrap and jackknife methods. The methods are illustrated using the childhood cancer dataset.

Factors Associated With Bites to a Child From a Dog Living in the Same Home: A Bi-National Comparison.

PubMed

Messam, Locksley L McV; Kass, Philip H; Chomel, Bruno B; Hart, Lynette A

2018-01-01

We conducted a veterinary clinic-based retrospective cohort study aimed at identifying child-, dog-, and home-environment factors associated with dog bites to children aged 5-15 years old living in the same home as a dog in Kingston, Jamaica (236) and San Francisco, USA (61). Secondarily, we wished to compare these factors to risk factors for dog bites to the general public. Participant information was collected via interviewer-administered questionnaire using proxy respondents. Data were analyzed using log-binomial regression to estimate relative risks and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each exposure-dog bite relationship. Exploiting the correspondence between X% confidence intervals and X% Bayesian probability intervals obtained using a uniform prior distribution, for each exposure, we calculated probabilities of the true (population) RRs ≥ 1.25 or ≤0.8, for positive or negative associations, respectively. Boys and younger children were at higher risk for bites, than girls and older children, respectively. Dogs living in a home with no yard space were at an elevated risk (RR = 2.97; 95% CI: 1.06-8.33) of biting a child living in the same home, compared to dogs that had yard space. Dogs routinely allowed inside for some portion of the day (RR = 3.00; 95% CI: 0.94-9.62) and dogs routinely allowed to sleep in a family member's bedroom (RR = 2.82; 95% CI: 1.17-6.81) were also more likely to bite a child living in the home than those that were not. In San Francisco, but less so in Kingston, bites were inversely associated with the number of children in the home. While in Kingston, but not in San Francisco, smaller breeds and dogs obtained for companionship were at higher risk for biting than larger breeds and dogs obtained for protection, respectively. Overall, for most exposures, the observed associations were consistent with population RRs of practical importance (i.e., RRs ≥ 1.25 or ≤0.8). Finally, we found substantial consistency between risk factors for bites to children and previously reported risk factors for general bites.

Data free inference with processed data products

DOE PAGES

Chowdhary, K.; Najm, H. N.

2014-07-12

Here, we consider the context of probabilistic inference of model parameters given error bars or confidence intervals on model output values, when the data is unavailable. We introduce a class of algorithms in a Bayesian framework, relying on maximum entropy arguments and approximate Bayesian computation methods, to generate consistent data with the given summary statistics. Once we obtain consistent data sets, we pool the respective posteriors, to arrive at a single, averaged density on the parameters. This approach allows us to perform accurate forward uncertainty propagation consistent with the reported statistics.

A short note on jackknifing the concordance correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Feng, Dai; Baumgartner, Richard; Svetnik, Vladimir

2014-02-10

Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) is a very popular scaled index of agreement used in applied statistics. To obtain a confidence interval (CI) for the estimate of CCC, jackknifing was proposed and shown to perform well in simulation as well as in applications. However, a theoretical proof of the validity of the jackknife CI for the CCC has not been presented yet. In this note, we establish a sufficient condition for using the jackknife method to construct the CI for the CCC. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

TI-59 Programs for Multiple Regression.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-01

general linear hypothesis model of full rank [ Graybill , 19611 can be written as Y = x 8 + C , s-N(O,o 2I) nxl nxk kxl nxl where Y is the vector of n...a "reduced model " solution, and confidence intervals for linear functions of the coefficients can be obtained using (x’x) and a2, based on the t...O107)l UA.LLL. Library ModuIe NASTER -Puter 0NTINA Cards 1 PROGRAM DESCRIPTION (s s 2 ror the general linear hypothesis model Y - XO + C’ calculates

Chest x-ray as a screening tool for blunt thoracic trauma in children.

PubMed

Yanchar, Natalie L; Woo, Kenneth; Brennan, Maureen; Palmer, Cameron S; Zs Ee, Michael; Sweeney, Brian; Crameri, Joe

2013-10-01

With the increasing use of thoracic computed tomography (CT) to screen for injuries in pediatric blunt thoracic trauma (BTT), we determined whether chest x-ray (CXR) and other clinical and epidemiologic variables could be used to predict significant thoracic injuries, to inform the selective use of CT in pediatric BTT. We further queried if these were discrepant from factors associated with the decision to obtain a thoracic CT. This retrospective cohort study included cases of BTT from three Level I pediatric trauma centers between April 1999 and March 2008. Pre-CT epidemiologic, clinical, and radiologic variables associated with CT findings of any thoracic injury or a significant thoracic injury as well as the decision to obtain a thoracic CT were determined using logistic regression. Of 425 patients, 40% patients had a significant thoracic injury, 49% had nonsignificant thoracic injury, and 11% had no thoracic injury at all. Presence of hydrothorax and/or pneumothorax on CXR significantly increased the likelihood of significant chest injury visualized by CT (adjusted odds ratio 10.8; 95% confidence interval, 6.5-18), as did the presence of isolated subcutaneous emphysema (adjusted odds ratio, 19.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.3-168). Although a normal CXR finding was not statistically associated with a reduced risk of significant thoracic injury, 8 of the 9 cases with normal CXR findings and significant injuries involved occult pneumothoraces or hemothoraces not requiring intervention. Converse to features suggesting increased risk of significant injury, the decision to obtain a thoracic CT was only associated with later period in the study and obtaining a CT scan of another body region. CXR can be used to screen for significant thoracic injuries and direct the selective use of thoracic CT in pediatric BTT. Prospective studies are needed to validate these findings and develop guidelines that include CXR to define indications for thoracic CT in pediatric BTT. Prognostic study, level III.

Comparison of two color-difference formulas using the Bland-Altman approach based on gingiva color space.

PubMed

Gómez Polo, Cristina; Montero, Javier; Martín Casado, Ana Maria

2018-04-23

The objectives of this study were to determine the relationship between the results provided by the classical CIELab (ΔE ab *) and the CIEDE2000 (ΔE00) formulas and the gingival color space using the Bland and Altman limits of agreement, to use this relationship to establish the equivalences between the gingival color thresholds of perceptibility of both formulas, and to evaluate whether the relationship between ΔE ab * and ΔE00 is modified depending on the axis in which the changes occur. The means of the L*, a*, and b* coordinates of the 21 gingiva porcelain samples (Heraceram, Heraeus Kulzer Mitsui Chemical Groups) were used and the differences in color were calculated in 210 pairs of samples using the CIELab (ΔE*ab) and CIEDE2000 (ΔE00) color-difference formulas. The results obtained with these formulas were compared and the limits of agreement after a logarithmic transformation of the data were obtained. The relationship between both formulas was ln ΔE 00  = - 0.22 + ln ΔE ab *. The results obtained with the CIELab formula were between 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.98-1.03) and 1.54 (95% confidence interval 1.52-1.59) times higher than those obtained with the CIEDE200 formula. In the gingiva color space, the scale factor between the CIEDE2000 and CIELab values changes from 0.63 to 1.02, such that providing an accurate scale factor between both values proves difficult. The pairs with the highest ratio were those where the difference in color was mainly due to changes in lightness, whereas the pairs with the smallest ratio were those where the difference in color was mainly due to changes in the blue-yellow or green-red axes.

A Comparison of Elbow Range of Motion Measurements: Smartphone-Based Digital Photography Versus Goniometric Measurements.

PubMed

Meislin, Megan A; Wagner, Eric R; Shin, Alexander Y

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study was to validate elbow flexion and extension measured from smartphone photography obtained by participants and compared them with photographs obtained by surgeons and goniometric measurements. We enrolled 32 participants with a total of 64 elbows, aged 25 to 68 years. Participants obtained smartphone photographs of full elbow flexion and extension. Then surgeons obtained the same photographs and goniometric measurement of elbow range of motion (ROM). We measured ROM from the photographs using Adobe Photoshop and calculated average ROM. Comparisons of manual goniometer versus digital measurements, participant versus surgeon photograph measurements, and interobserver measurements were statistically analyzed. Average ROM measured by manual goniometer and digital photographs was 0° to 129° (range, 0° to 140°) and 0° to 129° (range, 0° to 145°), respectively. The goniometer versus digital measurements interclass correlation was 0.828 (L) and 0.740 (R). Pearson coefficient was 0.845 (L) and 0.757 (R). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated that 30 of 32 digital measurements (L) and 31 of 32 measurements (R) were within the 95% confidence interval. Participant-obtained photographs compared with researcher's photographs interclass correlation was 0.955 (L) and 0.941 (R), with a Pearson coefficient of 0.962 (L) and 0.957 (R), respectively. Reviewing interobserver reliability, concordance coefficients were 0.793 (L) and 0.767 (R) and Pearson coefficients were 0.811 (L) and 0.780 (R). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated that 28 of 32 digital measurements (L) and 26 of 32 measurements (R) were within the 95% confidence interval. Measuring elbow ROM using smartphone digital photography is valid and reliable. Participants were able to obtain accurate photographs and the measurements based on these photographs show no statistical difference from those taken by surgeons or goniometric measurement. This study validates using smartphone photography for measuring elbow ROM by laymen in a remote setting. Diagnostic II. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of predictive performance in incomplete data by combining internal validation and multiple imputation.

PubMed

Wahl, Simone; Boulesteix, Anne-Laure; Zierer, Astrid; Thorand, Barbara; van de Wiel, Mark A

2016-10-26

Missing values are a frequent issue in human studies. In many situations, multiple imputation (MI) is an appropriate missing data handling strategy, whereby missing values are imputed multiple times, the analysis is performed in every imputed data set, and the obtained estimates are pooled. If the aim is to estimate (added) predictive performance measures, such as (change in) the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), internal validation strategies become desirable in order to correct for optimism. It is not fully understood how internal validation should be combined with multiple imputation. In a comprehensive simulation study and in a real data set based on blood markers as predictors for mortality, we compare three combination strategies: Val-MI, internal validation followed by MI on the training and test parts separately, MI-Val, MI on the full data set followed by internal validation, and MI(-y)-Val, MI on the full data set omitting the outcome followed by internal validation. Different validation strategies, including bootstrap und cross-validation, different (added) performance measures, and various data characteristics are considered, and the strategies are evaluated with regard to bias and mean squared error of the obtained performance estimates. In addition, we elaborate on the number of resamples and imputations to be used, and adopt a strategy for confidence interval construction to incomplete data. Internal validation is essential in order to avoid optimism, with the bootstrap 0.632+ estimate representing a reliable method to correct for optimism. While estimates obtained by MI-Val are optimistically biased, those obtained by MI(-y)-Val tend to be pessimistic in the presence of a true underlying effect. Val-MI provides largely unbiased estimates, with a slight pessimistic bias with increasing true effect size, number of covariates and decreasing sample size. In Val-MI, accuracy of the estimate is more strongly improved by increasing the number of bootstrap draws rather than the number of imputations. With a simple integrated approach, valid confidence intervals for performance estimates can be obtained. When prognostic models are developed on incomplete data, Val-MI represents a valid strategy to obtain estimates of predictive performance measures.

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

On the log-normality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: implications for extreme-event probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Riley, Pete

2015-01-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to −Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst≥850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42,2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst≥880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490,1187] nT.

Role of Blood Lipids in the Development of Ischemic Stroke and its Subtypes

PubMed Central

Engström, Gunnar; Larsson, Susanna C.; Traylor, Matthew; Markus, Hugh S.; Melander, Olle; Orho-Melander, Marju

2018-01-01

Background and Purpose— Statin therapy is associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke supporting a causal role of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. However, more evidence is needed to answer the question whether LDL cholesterol plays a causal role in ischemic stroke subtypes. In addition, it is unknown whether high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides have a causal relationship to ischemic stroke and its subtypes. Our aim was to investigate the causal role of LDL cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides in ischemic stroke and its subtypes through Mendelian randomization (MR). Methods— Summary data on 185 genome-wide lipids-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms were obtained from the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium and the Stroke Genetics Network for their association with ischemic stroke (n=16 851 cases and 32 473 controls) and its subtypes, including large artery atherosclerosis (n=2410), small artery occlusion (n=3186), and cardioembolic (n=3427) stroke. Inverse-variance–weighted MR was used to obtain the causal estimates. Inverse-variance–weighted multivariable MR, MR-Egger, and sensitivity exclusion of pleiotropic single nucleotide polymorphisms after Steiger filtering and MR-Pleiotropy Residual Sum and Outlier test were used to adjust for pleiotropic bias. Results— A 1-SD genetically elevated LDL cholesterol was associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (odds ratio: 1.12; 95% confidence interval: 1.04–1.20) and large artery atherosclerosis stroke (odds ratio: 1.28; 95% confidence interval: 1.10–1.49) but not with small artery occlusion or cardioembolic stroke in multivariable MR. A 1-SD genetically elevated high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with a decreased risk of small artery occlusion stroke (odds ratio: 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.67–0.90) in multivariable MR. MR-Egger indicated no pleiotropic bias, and results did not markedly change after sensitivity exclusion of pleiotropic single nucleotide polymorphisms. Genetically elevated triglycerides did not associate with ischemic stroke or its subtypes. Conclusions— LDL cholesterol lowering is likely to prevent large artery atherosclerosis but may not prevent small artery occlusion nor cardioembolic strokes. High-density lipoprotein cholesterol elevation may lead to benefits in small artery disease prevention. Finally, triglyceride lowering may not yield benefits in ischemic stroke and its subtypes. PMID:29535274

Acute toxicity of diazinon is similar for eight stocks of bobwhite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, E.F.; Camardese, M.B.; Heinz, G.H.; Spann, J.W.; DeBevec, A.B.

1984-01-01

Nine-week-old bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) from eight different game farms were tested for their sensitivity to an acute oral exposure of technical-grade diazinon (phosphorothioic acid O, O-diethyl-O-[6-methyl- 2-(1 -methylethy 1)-4-pyrimidinyl]ester). Extraneous variables associated with interlaboratory differences in husbandry were eliminated by incubating eggs and rearing chicks to test age for all stocks simultaneously in the same facilities at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Under this single set of conditions, the responses of the eight stocks of bobwhite to diazinon were statistically inseparable, with LD50 values varying from 13 mg/kg (95% confidence interval, 8-21 mg/kg) to 17 mg/kg (95% confidence interval, 11-25 mg/kg). The pooled LD50 for the eight stocks was 14.7 mg/kg (95% confidence interval,13.1-16.5 mg/kg).

Relationship Between Maximum Tsunami Amplitude and Duration of Signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yoo Yin; Whitmore, Paul M.

2014-12-01

All available tsunami observations at tide gauges situated along the North American coast were examined to determine if there is any clear relationship between maximum amplitude and signal duration. In total, 89 historical tsunami recordings generated by 13 major earthquakes between 1952 and 2011 were investigated. Tidal variations were filtered out of the signal and the duration between the arrival time and the time at which the signals drops and stays below 0.3 m amplitude was computed. The processed tsunami time series were evaluated and a linear least-squares fit with a 95 % confidence interval was examined to compare tsunami durations with maximum tsunami amplitude in the study region. The confidence interval is roughly 20 h over the range of maximum tsunami amplitudes in which we are interested. This relatively large confidence interval likely results from variations in local resonance effects, late-arriving reflections, and other effects.

Return on Investment of a Work-Family Intervention: Evidence From the Work, Family, and Health Network.

PubMed

Barbosa, Carolina; Bray, Jeremy W; Dowd, William N; Mills, Michael J; Moen, Phyllis; Wipfli, Brad; Olson, Ryan; Kelly, Erin L

2015-09-01

To estimate the return on investment (ROI) of a workplace initiative to reduce work-family conflict in a group-randomized 18-month field experiment in an information technology firm in the United States. Intervention resources were micro-costed; benefits included medical costs, productivity (presenteeism), and turnover. Regression models were used to estimate the ROI, and cluster-robust bootstrap was used to calculate its confidence interval. For each participant, model-adjusted costs of the intervention were $690 and company savings were $1850 (2011 prices). The ROI was 1.68 (95% confidence interval, -8.85 to 9.47) and was robust in sensitivity analyses. The positive ROI indicates that employers' investment in an intervention to reduce work-family conflict can enhance their business. Although this was the first study to present a confidence interval for the ROI, results are comparable with the literature.

Predictors of successful closure of patent ductus arteriosus with indomethacin.

PubMed

Ahamed, M F; Verma, P; Lee, S; Vega, M; Wang, D; Kim, M; Fuloria, M

2015-09-01

To determine whether platelet counts can predict the likelihood of successful closure of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) with indomethacin. This was a retrospective cohort study of infants <32 weeks' gestational age (GA) and birth weight <1500 g with PDA. Clinical characteristics between infants who achieved ductal closure with indomethacin and those who failed were compared. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of successful ductal closure. In infants with hemodynamically significant PDA, older GA (odds ratio=1.54; 95% confidence interval: 1.12 to 2.13), male gender (odds ratio=3.02; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 8.49) and higher platelet count (odds ratio=1.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 2.17) prior to indomethacin treatment were associated with successful ductal closure with indomethacin. Older GA, male gender and higher platelet count at time of treatment of hemodynamically significant PDA are predictors of successful ductal closure with indomethacin.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 and Kidney Disease Progression in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Chonchol, Michel; Gitomer, Berenice; Isakova, Tamara; Cai, Xuan; Salusky, Isidro; Pereira, Renata; Abebe, Kaleab; Torres, Vicente; Steinman, Theodor I; Grantham, Jared J; Chapman, Arlene B; Schrier, Robert W; Wolf, Myles

2017-09-07

Increases in fibroblast growth factor 23 precede kidney function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease; however, the role of fibroblast growth factor 23 in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease has not been well characterized. We measured intact fibroblast growth factor 23 levels in baseline serum samples from 1002 participants in the HALT-PKD Study A ( n =540; mean eGFR =91±17 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) and B ( n =462; mean eGFR =48±12 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ). We used linear mixed and Cox proportional hazards models to test associations between fibroblast growth factor 23 and eGFR decline, percentage change in height-adjusted total kidney volume, and composite of time to 50% reduction in eGFR, onset of ESRD, or death. Median (interquartile range) intact fibroblast growth factor 23 was 44 (33-56) pg/ml in HALT-PKD Study A and 69 (50-93) pg/ml in Study B. In adjusted models, annualized eGFR decline was significantly faster in the upper fibroblast growth factor 23 quartile (Study A: quartile 4, -3.62; 95% confidence interval, -4.12 to -3.12 versus quartile 1, -2.51; 95% confidence interval, -2.71 to -2.30 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; P for trend <0.001; Study B: quartile 4, -3.74; 95% confidence interval, -4.14 to -3.34 versus quartile 1, -2.78; 95% confidence interval, -2.92 to -2.63 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; P for trend <0.001). In Study A, higher fibroblast growth factor 23 quartiles were associated with greater longitudinal percentage increase in height-adjusted total kidney volume in adjusted models (quartile 4, 6.76; 95% confidence interval, 5.57 to 7.96 versus quartile 1, 6.04; 95% confidence interval, 5.55 to 6.54; P for trend =0.03). In Study B, compared with the lowest quartile, the highest fibroblast growth factor 23 quartile was associated with elevated risk for the composite outcome (hazard ratio, 3.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.84 to 5.25). Addition of fibroblast growth factor 23 to a model of annualized decline in eGFR≥3.0 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 did not improve risk prediction. Higher serum fibroblast growth factor 23 concentration was associated with kidney function decline, height-adjusted total kidney volume percentage increase, and death in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. However, fibroblast growth factor 23 did not substantially improve prediction of rapid kidney function decline. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Effect of modified bridge exercise on trunk muscle activity in healthy adults: a cross sectional study.

PubMed

Yoon, Jeong-Oh; Kang, Min-Hyeok; Kim, Jun-Seok; Oh, Jae-Seop

This is a cross-sectional study. University research laboratory. Fifteen healthy adults (mean age: 27.47 years) volunteered for this study. The individuals performed standard bridge exercise and modified bridge exercises with right leg-lift (single-leg-lift bridge exercise, single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface, and single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise). During the bridge exercises, electromyography of the rectus abdominis, internal oblique, erector spinae, and multifidus muscles was recorded using a wireless surface electromyography system. Two-way repeated-measures analysis of variance (exercise by side) with post hoc pairwise comparisons using Bonferroni correction was used to compare the electromyography data collected from each muscle. Bilateral internal oblique muscle activities showed significantly greater during single-leg-lift bridge exercise (95% confidence interval: right internal oblique=-8.99 to -1.08, left internal oblique=-6.84 to -0.10), single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface (95% confidence interval: right internal oblique=-7.32 to -1.78, left internal oblique=-5.34 to -0.99), and single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise (95% confidence interval: right internal oblique=-17.13 to -0.89, left internal oblique=-8.56 to -0.60) compared with standard bridge exercise. Bilateral rectus abdominis showed greater electromyography activity during single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface (95% confidence interval: right rectus abdominis=-9.33 to -1.13, left rectus abdominis=-4.80 to -0.64) and single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise (95% confidence interval: right rectus abdominis=-14.12 to -1.84, left rectus abdominis=-6.68 to -0.16) compared with standard bridge exercise. In addition, the right rectus abdominis muscle activity was greater during single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise compared with single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface (95% confidence interval=-7.51 to -0.89). For erector spinae, muscle activity was greater in right side compared with left side during all exercises (95% confidence interval: standard bridge exercise=0.19-4.53, single-leg-lift bridge exercise=0.24-10.49, single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface=0.74-8.55, single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise=0.47-11.43). There was no significant interaction and main effect for multifidus. Adding hip abduction and unstable conditions to bridge exercises may be useful strategy to facilitate the co-activation of trunk muscles. Copyright © 2017 Associação Brasileira de Pesquisa e Pós-Graduação em Fisioterapia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Patients with recurrent falls attending Accident & Emergency benefit from multifactorial intervention--a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Davison, John; Bond, John; Dawson, Pamela; Steen, I Nicholas; Kenny, Rose Anne

2005-03-01

To determine the effectiveness of multifactorial intervention to prevent falls in cognitively intact older persons with recurrent falls. Randomised controlled trial of multifactorial (medical, physiotherapy and occupational therapy) post-fall assessment and intervention compared with conventional care. Accident & Emergency departments in a university teaching hospital and associated district general hospital. 313 cognitively intact men and women aged over 65 years presenting to Accident & Emergency with a fall or fall-related injury and at least one additional fall in the preceding year; 159 randomised to assessment and intervention and 154 to conventional care. primary outcome was the number of falls and fallers in 1 year after recruitment. Secondary outcomes included injury rates, fall-related hospital admissions, mortality and fear of falling. There were 36% fewer falls in the intervention group (relative risk 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.90). The proportion of subjects continuing to fall (65% (94/144) compared with 68% (102/149) relative risk 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.12), and the number of fall-related attendances and hospital admissions was not different between groups. Duration of hospital admission was reduced (mean difference admission duration 3.6 days, 95% confidence interval 0.1-7.6) and falls efficacy was better in the intervention group (mean difference in Activities Specific Balance Confidence Score of 7.5, 95% confidence interval 0.72-14.2). Multifactorial intervention is effective at reducing the fall burden in cognitively intact older persons with recurrent falls attending Accident & Emergency, but does not reduce the proportion of subjects still falling.

Flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in Massachusetts: a case-crossover study.

PubMed

Wade, Timothy J; Lin, Cynthia J; Jagai, Jyotsna S; Hilborn, Elizabeth D

2014-01-01

Floods and other severe weather events are anticipated to increase as a result of global climate change. Floods can lead to outbreaks of gastroenteritis and other infectious diseases due to disruption of sewage and water infrastructure and impacts on sanitation and hygiene. Floods have also been indirectly associated with outbreaks through population displacement and crowding. We conducted a case-crossover study to investigate the association between flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness (ER-GI) in Massachusetts for the years 2003 through 2007. We obtained ER-GI visits from the State of Massachusetts and records of floods from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Storm Events Database. ER-GI visits were considered exposed if a flood occurred in the town of residence within three hazard periods of the visit: 0-4 days; 5-9 days; and 10-14 days. A time-stratified bi-directional design was used for control selection, matching on day of the week with two weeks lead or lag time from the ER-GI visit. Fixed effect logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk of ER-GI visits following the flood. A total of 270,457 ER-GI visits and 129 floods occurred in Massachusetts over the study period. Across all counties, flooding was associated with an increased risk for ER-GI in the 0-4 day period after flooding (Odds Ratio: 1.08; 95% Confidence Interval: 1.03-1.12); but not the 5-9 days (Odds Ratio: 0.995; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.955-1.04) or the 10-14 days after (Odds Ratio: 0.966, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.927-1.01). Similar results were observed for different definitions of ER-GI. The effect differed across counties, suggesting local differences in the risk and impact of flooding. Statewide, across the study period, an estimated 7% of ER-GI visits in the 0-4 days after a flood event were attributable to flooding.

Plasma Concentrations and Dietary Intakes of Choline and Betaine in Association With Atrial Fibrillation Risk: Results From 3 Prospective Cohorts With Different Health Profiles.

PubMed

Zuo, Hui; Svingen, Gard F T; Tell, Grethe S; Ueland, Per M; Vollset, Stein E; Pedersen, Eva R; Ulvik, Arve; Meyer, Klaus; Nordrehaug, Jan E; Nilsen, Dennis W T; Bønaa, Kaare H; Nygård, Ottar

2018-04-12

Although choline metabolism has been associated with atherosclerotic heart disease, less research attention has been paid to the associations of choline and its oxidative metabolite betaine with cardiac arrhythmias. We evaluated associations of plasma concentrations and dietary intakes of choline and betaine with long-term atrial fibrillation (AF) risk in a community-based cohort, HUSK ([the Hordaland Health Study] n=6949), and validated the findings in 2 patient cohorts: the Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort (n=4164) and the NORVIT (Norwegian B-Vitamin) Trial (n=3733). Information on AF was obtained from the CVDNOR (Cardiovascular Disease in Norway) project. In HUSK, WECAC (Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort), and NORVIT, 552, 411, and 663 AF cases were identified during a median follow-up time of 10.9, 7.3, and, 8.7 years, respectively. Plasma concentrations of choline and betaine were significantly positively associated with later AF risk after multivariable adjustments in HUSK. Such associations were independently replicated in the 2 external prospective patient cohorts. The pooled hazard ratio was 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.19, P <0.001) and 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.10-1.22, P <0.001) per SD increment for log-transformed choline and betaine, respectively. Moreover, dietary intake of choline was marginally associated with AF risk (pooled hazard ratio 1.29, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.66, fifth versus first quintile), whereas no significant association was observed between dietary betaine and AF risk. Our findings indicate that plasma concentrations as well as dietary intake of choline, but not betaine, are associated with subsequent risk of AF, suggesting a potential role of choline metabolism in the pathogenesis of AF. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov.Unique identifier: NCT00671346. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Workplace Determinants of Social Capital: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Evidence from a Finnish Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Oksanen, Tuula; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kouvonen, Anne; Takao, Soshi; Suzuki, Etsuji; Virtanen, Marianna; Pentti, Jaana; Kivimäki, Mika; Vahtera, Jussi

2013-01-01

Objective To examine which contextual features of the workplace are associated with social capital. Methods This is a cohort study of 43,167 employees in 3090 Finnish public sector workplaces who responded to a survey of individual workplace social capital in 2000–02 (response rate 68%). We used ecometrics approach to estimate social capital of work units. Features of the workplace were work unit's demographic and employment patterns and size, obtained from employers' administrative records. We used multilevel-multinomial logistic regression models to examine cross-sectionally whether these features were associated with social capital between individuals and work units. Fixed effects models were used for longitudinal analyses in a subsample of 12,108 individuals to examine the effects of changes in workplace characteristics on changes in social capital between 2000 and 2004. Results After adjustment for individual characteristics, an increase in work unit size reduced the odds of high levels of individual workplace social capital (odds ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.91–0.98 per 30-person-year increase). A 20% increase in the proportion of manual and male employees reduced the odds of high levels of social capital by 8% and 23%, respectively. A 30% increase in temporary employees and a 20% increase in employee turnover were associated with 11% (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.17) and 24% (95% confidence interval 1.18–1.30) higher odds of having high levels of social capital respectively). Results from fixed effects models within individuals, adjusted for time-varying covariates, and from social capital of the work units yielded consistent results. Conclusions These findings suggest that workplace social capital is contextually patterned. Workplace demographic and employment patterns as well as the size of the work unit are important in understanding variations in workplace social capital between individuals and workplaces. PMID:23776555

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: MR Imaging of Liver Proton Density Fat Fraction to Assess Hepatic Steatosis

PubMed Central

Tang, An; Tan, Justin; Sun, Mark; Hamilton, Gavin; Bydder, Mark; Wolfson, Tanya; Gamst, Anthony C.; Middleton, Michael; Brunt, Elizabeth M.; Loomba, Rohit; Lavine, Joel E.; Schwimmer, Jeffrey B.

2013-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging–estimated proton density fat fraction (PDFF) for assessing hepatic steatosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) by using centrally scored histopathologic validation as the reference standard. Materials and Methods: This prospectively designed, cross-sectional, internal review board–approved, HIPAA-compliant study was conducted in 77 patients who had NAFLD and liver biopsy. MR imaging–PDFF was estimated from magnitude-based low flip angle multiecho gradient-recalled echo images after T2* correction and multifrequency fat modeling. Histopathologic scoring was obtained by consensus of the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) Clinical Research Network Pathology Committee. Spearman correlation, additivity and variance stabilization for regression for exploring the effect of a number of potential confounders, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed. Results: Liver MR imaging–PDFF was systematically higher, with higher histologic steatosis grade (P < .001), and was significantly correlated with histologic steatosis grade (ρ = 0.69, P < .001). The correlation was not confounded by age, sex, lobular inflammation, hepatocellular ballooning, NASH diagnosis, fibrosis, or magnetic field strength (P = .65). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves was 0.989 (95% confidence interval: 0.968, 1.000) for distinguishing patients with steatosis grade 0 (n = 5) from those with grade 1 or higher (n = 72), 0.825 (95% confidence interval: 0.734, 0.915) to distinguish those with grade 1 or lower (n = 31) from those with grade 2 or higher (n = 46), and 0.893 (95% confidence interval: 0.809, 0.977) to distinguish those with grade 2 or lower (n = 58) from those with grade 3 (n = 19). Conclusion: MR imaging–PDFF showed promise for assessment of hepatic steatosis grade in patients with NAFLD. For validation, further studies with larger sample sizes are needed. © RSNA, 2013 PMID:23382291

Comparing the Use of 3D Photogrammetry and Computed Tomography in Assessing the Severity of Single-Suture Nonsyndromic Craniosynostosis

PubMed Central

Ho, Olivia A.; Saber, Nikoo; Stephens, Derek; Clausen, April; Drake, James; Forrest, Christopher

2017-01-01

Purpose: Single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis is diagnosed using clinical assessment and computed tomography (CT). With increasing awareness of the associated risks of radiation exposure, the use of CT is particularly concerning in patients with craniosynostosis since they are exposed at a younger age and more frequently than the average child. Three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetry is advantageous—it involves no radiation, is conveniently obtainable within clinic, and does not require general anaesthesia. This study aims to assess how 3D photogrammetry compares to CT in the assessment of craniosynostosis severity, to quantify surgical outcomes, and analyze the validity of 3D photogrammetry in craniosynostosis. Methods: Computed tomography images and 3D photographs of patients who underwent craniosynostosis surgery were assessed and aligned to best fit. The intervening area between the CT and 3D photogrammetry curves at the supraorbital bar (bandeau) level in axial view was calculated. Statistical analysis was performed using Student t test. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals were determined and equivalence margins were applied. Results: In total, 41 pairs of CTs and 3D photographs were analyzed. The 95% confidence interval was 198.16 to 264.18 mm2 and the mean was 231.17 mm2. When comparisons were made in the same bandeau region omitting the temporalis muscle, the 95% confidence interval was 108.94 to 147.38 mm2, and the mean was 128.16 mm2. Although statistically significant difference between the modalities was found, they can be attributable to the dampening effect of soft tissue. Conclusion: Within certain error margins, 3D photogrammetry is comparable to CT in assessing the severity of single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis. However, a dampening effect can be attributable to the soft tissue. Three-dimensional photogrammetry may be more applicable for severe cases of craniosynostosis but not milder deformity. It may also be beneficial for assessing the overall appearance and aesthetics but not for determining underlying bony severity. PMID:29026817

How do knee implants perform past the second decade? Nineteen- to 25-year followup of the Press-fit Condylar design TKA.

PubMed

Patil, Shantanu; McCauley, Julie C; Pulido, Pamela; Colwell, Clifford W

2015-01-01

At 14- to 17-year followup, we reported successful outcomes of the Press-fit Condylar total knee arthroplasty (TKA) system in 160 TKAs performed between 1986 and 1989. However, there are few published reports on TKA survivorship and patient function that include patients evaluated into the third decade after surgery. The study purpose was to determine (1) the survivorship of the implant; and (2) knee function in patients with this TKA system at a mean 20-year followup. We ascertained revision status of all living patients (42 of 160 knees) and all patients (22 knees) who died since the previous study. Among patients alive at the latest followup, Knee Society function scores were obtained and radiographs were evaluated. Kaplan-Meier survivorship analysis with 95% confidence intervals was performed with revision for any reason and aseptic loosening as endpoints. A competing risks analysis with 95% confidence intervals was also performed for revision for any reason as the endpoint. At the mean 20-year (range, 19-25 years) followup, all living patients retained their original implants from the index TKA, exclusive of three polyethylene exchanges. This study demonstrates an 87% Kaplan-Meier survivorship for revision for any reason (95% confidence interval [CI], 80%-92%) and a 98% Kaplan-Meier survivorship for revision for aseptic loosening (95% CI, 93%-99%). Competing risks survivorship was 79% (95% CI, 70%-85%) at 25 years for revision for any reason. Mean Knee Society function score was 46.9. Since the previous study, three revisions have been performed, all for polyethylene wear. The Press-fit Condylar implant system continues to be successful, maintaining longevity up to 25-year followup. This is one of the longest followup studies, reporting continued successes over 20 years, and should serve as a benchmark for current-generation implants. Level IV, therapeutic study. See Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

A multigene assay to predict recurrence of tamoxifen-treated, node-negative breast cancer.

PubMed

Paik, Soonmyung; Shak, Steven; Tang, Gong; Kim, Chungyeul; Baker, Joffre; Cronin, Maureen; Baehner, Frederick L; Walker, Michael G; Watson, Drew; Park, Taesung; Hiller, William; Fisher, Edwin R; Wickerham, D Lawrence; Bryant, John; Wolmark, Norman

2004-12-30

The likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with breast cancer who have no involved lymph nodes and estrogen-receptor-positive tumors is poorly defined by clinical and histopathological measures. We tested whether the results of a reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay of 21 prospectively selected genes in paraffin-embedded tumor tissue would correlate with the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with node-negative, tamoxifen-treated breast cancer who were enrolled in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project clinical trial B-14. The levels of expression of 16 cancer-related genes and 5 reference genes were used in a prospectively defined algorithm to calculate a recurrence score and to determine a risk group (low, intermediate, or high) for each patient. Adequate RT-PCR profiles were obtained in 668 of 675 tumor blocks. The proportions of patients categorized as having a low, intermediate, or high risk by the RT-PCR assay were 51, 22, and 27 percent, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the rates of distant recurrence at 10 years in the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 6.8 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 4.0 to 9.6), 14.3 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 8.3 to 20.3), and 30.5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 23.6 to 37.4). The rate in the low-risk group was significantly lower than that in the high-risk group (P<0.001). In a multivariate Cox model, the recurrence score provided significant predictive power that was independent of age and tumor size (P<0.001). The recurrence score was also predictive of overall survival (P<0.001) and could be used as a continuous function to predict distant recurrence in individual patients. The recurrence score has been validated as quantifying the likelihood of distant recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients with node-negative, estrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer. Copyright 2004 Massachusetts Medical Society.

Comparing the Use of 3D Photogrammetry and Computed Tomography in Assessing the Severity of Single-Suture Nonsyndromic Craniosynostosis.

PubMed

Ho, Olivia A; Saber, Nikoo; Stephens, Derek; Clausen, April; Drake, James; Forrest, Christopher; Phillips, John

2017-05-01

Single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis is diagnosed using clinical assessment and computed tomography (CT). With increasing awareness of the associated risks of radiation exposure, the use of CT is particularly concerning in patients with craniosynostosis since they are exposed at a younger age and more frequently than the average child. Three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetry is advantageous-it involves no radiation, is conveniently obtainable within clinic, and does not require general anaesthesia. This study aims to assess how 3D photogrammetry compares to CT in the assessment of craniosynostosis severity, to quantify surgical outcomes, and analyze the validity of 3D photogrammetry in craniosynostosis. Computed tomography images and 3D photographs of patients who underwent craniosynostosis surgery were assessed and aligned to best fit. The intervening area between the CT and 3D photogrammetry curves at the supraorbital bar (bandeau) level in axial view was calculated. Statistical analysis was performed using Student t test. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals were determined and equivalence margins were applied. In total, 41 pairs of CTs and 3D photographs were analyzed. The 95% confidence interval was 198.16 to 264.18 mm 2 and the mean was 231.17 mm 2 . When comparisons were made in the same bandeau region omitting the temporalis muscle, the 95% confidence interval was 108.94 to 147.38 mm 2 , and the mean was 128.16 mm 2 . Although statistically significant difference between the modalities was found, they can be attributable to the dampening effect of soft tissue. Within certain error margins, 3D photogrammetry is comparable to CT in assessing the severity of single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis. However, a dampening effect can be attributable to the soft tissue. Three-dimensional photogrammetry may be more applicable for severe cases of craniosynostosis but not milder deformity. It may also be beneficial for assessing the overall appearance and aesthetics but not for determining underlying bony severity.

Do one-time intracompartmental pressure measurements have a high false-positive rate in diagnosing compartment syndrome?

PubMed

Whitney, Augusta; O'Toole, Robert V; Hui, Emily; Sciadini, Marcus F; Pollak, Andrew N; Manson, Theodore T; Eglseder, W Andrew; Andersen, Romney C; Lebrun, Christopher; Doro, Christopher; Nascone, Jason W

2014-02-01

Intracompartmental pressure measurements are frequently used in the diagnosis of compartment syndrome, particularly in patients with equivocal or limited physical examination findings. Little clinical work has been done to validate the clinical use of intracompartmental pressures or identify associated false-positive rates. We hypothesized that diagnosis of compartment syndrome based on one-time pressure measurements alone is associated with a high false-positive rate. Forty-eight consecutive patients with tibial shaft fractures who were not suspected of having compartment syndrome based on physical examinations were prospectively enrolled. Pressure measurements were obtained in all four compartments at a single point in time immediately after induction of anesthesia using a pressure-monitoring device. Preoperative and intraoperative blood pressure measurements were recorded. The same standardized examination was performed by the attending surgeon preoperatively, postoperatively, and during clinical follow-up for 6 months to assess clinical evidence of acute or late compartment syndrome. No clinical evidence of compartment syndrome was observed postoperatively or during follow-up until 6 months after injury. Using the accepted criteria of delta P of 30 mm Hg from preoperative diastolic blood pressure, 35% of cases (n = 16; 95% confidence interval, 21.5-48.5%) met criteria for compartment syndrome. Raising the threshold to delta P of 20 mm Hg reduced the false-positive rate to 24% (n = 11; 95% confidence interval, 11.1-34.9%). Twenty-two percent (n = 10; 95% confidence interval, 9.5-32.5%) exceeded absolute pressure of 45 mm Hg. A 35% false-positive rate was found for the diagnosis of compartment syndrome in patients with tibial shaft fractures who were not thought to have compartment syndrome by using currently accepted criteria for diagnosis based solely on one-time compartment pressure measurements. Our data suggest that reliance on one-time intracompartmental pressure measurements can overestimate the rate of compartment syndrome and raise concern regarding unnecessary fasciotomies. Diagnostic study, level II.

Antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteremia in pediatric oncology patients--risk factors and outcomes.

PubMed

Haeusler, Gabrielle M; Mechinaud, Francoise; Daley, Andrew J; Starr, Mike; Shann, Frank; Connell, Thomas G; Bryant, Penelope A; Donath, Susan; Curtis, Nigel

2013-07-01

Infection with antibiotic-resistant (AR) Gram-negative (GN) bacteria is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors and outcomes associated with GN bacteremia with acquired resistance to antibiotics used in the empiric treatment of febrile neutropenia in pediatric oncology patients at our institution. All episodes of GN bacteremia in oncology patients at the Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne, from 2003 to 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. Information regarding age, diagnosis, phase of treatment, inpatient status, previous AR GN infection, treatment with inotropes or ventilatory support, admission to intensive care unit, and hospital and intensive care unit length of stay were obtained from electronic records. A total of 280 episodes of GN bacteremia in 210 patients were identified. Of these, 42 episodes in 35 patients were caused by an AR GN organism. Factors independently associated with AR GN bacteremia were high-intensity chemotherapy (odds ratio 3.7, 95% confidence interval: 1.2-11.4), hospital-acquired bacteremia (odds ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval: 2.0-9.6) and isolation of AR GN bacteria from any site within the preceding 12 months (odds ratio 9.9, 95% confidence interval: 3.8-25.5). Episodes of AR GN bacteremia were associated with longer median hospital length of stay (23.5 days versus 14.0 days; P = 0.0007), longer median intensive care unit length of stay (3.8 days versus 1.6 days; P = 0.02) and a higher rate of invasive ventilation (15% versus 5.2%; P = 0.03). No significant difference in infection-related or all-cause mortality between the 2 groups was identified. In pediatric oncology patients, AR GN bacteremia is associated with an increased rate of adverse outcomes and is more likely in patients who have received high-intensity chemotherapy, have been in hospital beyond 48 hours and who have had previous AR GN infection or colonization.

The Cost Implications of Less Tight Versus Tight Control of Hypertension in Pregnancy (CHIPS Trial)

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Rashid J.; Gafni, Amiram; Hu, Zheng Jing; Pullenayegum, Eleanor; von Dadelszen, Peter; Rey, Evelyne; Ross, Susan; Asztalos, Elizabeth; Murphy, Kellie E.; Menzies, Jennifer; Sanchez, J. Johanna; Ganzevoort, Wessel; Helewa, Michael; Lee, Shoo K.; Lee, Terry; Logan, Alexander G.; Moutquin, Jean-Marie; Singer, Joel; Thornton, Jim G.; Welch, Ross; Magee, Laura A.

2016-01-01

The CHIPS randomized controlled trial (Control of Hypertension in Pregnancy Study) found no difference in the primary perinatal or secondary maternal outcomes between planned “less tight” (target diastolic 100 mm Hg) and “tight” (target diastolic 85 mm Hg) blood pressure management strategies among women with chronic or gestational hypertension. This study examined which of these management strategies is more or less costly from a third-party payer perspective. A total of 981 women with singleton pregnancies and nonsevere, nonproteinuric chronic or gestational hypertension were randomized at 14 to 33 weeks to less tight or tight control. Resources used were collected from 94 centers in 15 countries and costed as if the trial took place in each of 3 Canadian provinces as a cost-sensitivity analysis. Eleven hospital ward and 24 health service costs were obtained from a similar trial and provincial government health insurance schedules of medical benefits. The mean total cost per woman–infant dyad was higher in less tight versus tight control, but the difference in mean total cost (DM) was not statistically significant in any province: Ontario ($30 191.62 versus $24 469.06; DM $5723, 95% confidence interval, −$296 to $12 272; P=0.0725); British Columbia ($30 593.69 versus $24 776.51; DM $5817; 95% confidence interval, −$385 to $12 349; P=0.0725); or Alberta ($31 510.72 versus $25 510.49; DM $6000.23; 95% confidence interval, −$154 to $12 781; P=0.0637). Tight control may benefit women without increasing risk to neonates (as shown in the main CHIPS trial), without additional (and possibly lower) cost to the healthcare system. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01192412. PMID:27550914

Nonparametric evaluation of quantitative traits in population-based association studies when the genetic model is unknown.

PubMed

Konietschke, Frank; Libiger, Ondrej; Hothorn, Ludwig A

2012-01-01

Statistical association between a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype and a quantitative trait in genome-wide association studies is usually assessed using a linear regression model, or, in the case of non-normally distributed trait values, using the Kruskal-Wallis test. While linear regression models assume an additive mode of inheritance via equi-distant genotype scores, Kruskal-Wallis test merely tests global differences in trait values associated with the three genotype groups. Both approaches thus exhibit suboptimal power when the underlying inheritance mode is dominant or recessive. Furthermore, these tests do not perform well in the common situations when only a few trait values are available in a rare genotype category (disbalance), or when the values associated with the three genotype categories exhibit unequal variance (variance heterogeneity). We propose a maximum test based on Marcus-type multiple contrast test for relative effect sizes. This test allows model-specific testing of either dominant, additive or recessive mode of inheritance, and it is robust against variance heterogeneity. We show how to obtain mode-specific simultaneous confidence intervals for the relative effect sizes to aid in interpreting the biological relevance of the results. Further, we discuss the use of a related all-pairwise comparisons contrast test with range preserving confidence intervals as an alternative to Kruskal-Wallis heterogeneity test. We applied the proposed maximum test to the Bogalusa Heart Study dataset, and gained a remarkable increase in the power to detect association, particularly for rare genotypes. Our simulation study also demonstrated that the proposed non-parametric tests control family-wise error rate in the presence of non-normality and variance heterogeneity contrary to the standard parametric approaches. We provide a publicly available R library nparcomp that can be used to estimate simultaneous confidence intervals or compatible multiplicity-adjusted p-values associated with the proposed maximum test.

A Prospective, Randomized Trial of Routine Duplex Ultrasound Surveillance on Arteriovenous Fistula Maturation.

PubMed

Han, Ahram; Min, Seung-Kee; Kim, Mi-Sook; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Jungsun; Ha, Jongwon; Lee, Joongyub; Min, Sang-Il

2016-10-07

Use of arteriovenous fistulas, the most preferred type of access for hemodialysis, is limited by their high maturation failure rate. The aim of this study was to assess whether aggressive surveillance with routine duplex ultrasound and intervention can decrease the maturation failure rate of arteriovenous fistulas. We conducted a single-center, parallel-group, randomized, controlled trial of patients undergoing autogenous arteriovenous fistula. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either the routine duplex or selective duplex group. In the routine duplex group, duplex ultrasound and physical examination were performed 2, 4, and 8 weeks postoperatively. In the selective duplex group, duplex examination was performed only when physical examination detected an abnormality. The primary end point was the maturation failure rate 8 weeks after fistula creation. Maturation failure was defined as the inability to achieve clinical maturation ( i.e. , a successful first use) and failure to achieve sonographic maturation (fistula flow >500 ml/min and diameter >6 mm) within 8 weeks. Between June 14, 2012, and June 25, 2014, 150 patients were enrolled (75 patients in each group), and 118 of those were included in the final analysis. The maturation failure rate was lower in the routine duplex group (8 of 59; 13.6%) than in the selective duplex group (15 of 59; 25.4%), but the difference was not statistically significant (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 1.19; P =0.10). Factors associated with maturation failure were women (odds ratio, 3.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 14.06; P =0.04), coronary artery disease (odds ratio, 6.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 24.95; P <0.01), diabetes (odds ratio, 6.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.76 to 21.19; P <0.01), and the preoperative cephalic vein diameter (odds ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 0.71; P <0.01). Postoperative routine duplex surveillance failed to prove superiority compared with selective duplex after physical examination for reducing arteriovenous fistula maturation failure. However, the wide 95% confidence interval for the effect of intervention precludes a firm conclusion that routine duplex surveillance was not beneficial. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length to predict preterm birth in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery.

PubMed

Vandermolen, Brooke I; Hezelgrave, Natasha L; Smout, Elizabeth M; Abbott, Danielle S; Seed, Paul T; Shennan, Andrew H

2016-10-01

Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing has demonstrated accuracy for prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic women with a history of preterm birth. Predictive accuracy in women with previous cervical surgery (a potentially different risk mechanism) is not known. We sought to compare the predictive accuracy of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length testing in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery to that in women with 1 previous preterm birth. We conducted a prospective blinded secondary analysis of a larger observational study of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in asymptomatic women measured with a Hologic 10Q system (Hologic, Marlborough, MA). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth (<30, <34, and <37 weeks) with cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in primiparous women who had undergone at least 1 invasive cervical procedure (n = 473) was compared with prediction in women who had previous spontaneous preterm birth, preterm prelabor rupture of membranes, or late miscarriage (n = 821). Relationship with cervical length was explored. The rate of spontaneous preterm birth <34 weeks in the cervical surgery group was 3% compared with 9% in previous spontaneous preterm birth group. Receiver operating characteristic curves comparing quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction at all 3 gestational end points were comparable between the cervical surgery and previous spontaneous preterm birth groups (34 weeks: area under the curve, 0.78 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.93] vs 0.71 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.78]; P = .39). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervical length compared with quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction of preterm birth <34 weeks of gestation offered similar prediction (area under the curve, 0.88 [95% confidence interval 0.79-0.96] vs 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.62-0.92], P = .12 in the cervical surgery group; and 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.70-0.84] vs 0.74 [95% confidence interval 0.67-0.81], P = .32 in the previous spontaneous preterm birth group). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin in asymptomatic women with cervical surgery is valid, and has comparative accuracy to that in women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Provider use of a participatory decision-making style with youth and caregivers and satisfaction with pediatric asthma visits

PubMed Central

Sleath, Betsy; Carpenter, Delesha M; Coyne, Imelda; Davis, Scott A; Hayes Watson, Claire; Loughlin, Ceila E; Garcia, Nacire; Reuland, Daniel S; Tudor, Gail E

2018-01-01

Background We conducted a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of an asthma question prompt list with video intervention to engage the youth during clinic visits. We examined whether the intervention was associated with 1) providers including youth and caregiver inputs more into asthma treatment regimens, 2) youth and caregivers rating providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style, and 3) youth and caregivers being more satisfied with visits. Methods English- or Spanish-speaking youth aged 11–17 years with persistent asthma and their caregivers were recruited from four pediatric clinics and randomized to the intervention or usual care groups. The youth in the intervention group watched the video with their caregivers on an iPad and completed a one-page asthma question prompt list before their clinic visits. All visits were audiotaped. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data. Results Forty providers and their patients (n=359) participated in this study. Providers included youth input into the asthma management treatment regimens during 2.5% of visits and caregiver input during 3.3% of visits. The youth in the intervention group were significantly more likely to rate their providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style (odds ratio=1.7, 95% confidence interval=1.1, 2.5). White caregivers were significantly more likely to rate the providers as more participatory (odds ratio=2.3, 95% confidence interval=1.2, 4.4). Youth (beta=4.9, 95% confidence interval=3.3, 6.5) and caregivers (beta=7.5, 95% confidence interval=3.1, 12.0) who rated their providers as being more participatory were significantly more satisfied with their visits. Youth (beta=−1.9, 95% confidence interval=−3.4, −0.4) and caregivers (beta=−8.8, 95% confidence interval=−16.2, −1.3) who spoke Spanish at home were less satisfied with visits. Conclusion The intervention did not increase the inclusion of youth and caregiver inputs into asthma treatment regimens. However, it did increase the youth’s perception of participatory decision-making style of the providers, and this in turn was associated with greater satisfaction. PMID:29785146

Epidemiology of 1.6 million pediatric soccer-related injuries presenting to US emergency departments from 1990 to 2003.

PubMed

Leininger, Robert E; Knox, Christy L; Comstock, R Dawn

2007-02-01

As soccer participation in the United States increases, so does the number of children at risk for injury. To examine pediatric soccer-related injuries presenting to US emergency departments from 1990 to 2003. Descriptive epidemiology study. A descriptive analysis of nationally representative, pediatric, soccer-related injury data from the US Consumer Product Safety Commission's National Electronic Injury Surveillance System. Among those 2 to 18 years of age, a nationally estimated 1597528 soccer-related injuries presented to US emergency departments from 1990 to 2003. Mean age was 13.2 years (range, 2-18 years); 58.6% were male. From 1990 to 2003, there was an increase in the absolute number of injuries among girls (P < .0001). The wrist/finger/hand (20.3%), ankle (18.2%), and knee (11.4%) were the most commonly injured body parts. The most common diagnoses were sprain/strain (35.9%), contusion/abrasion (24.1%), and fracture (23.2%). Boys were more likely to have face and head/neck injuries (17.7%; relative risk, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-1.49; P < .01) and lacerations/punctures (7.5%; relative risk, 3.31; 95% confidence interval, 2.93-3.74; P < .01) than were girls (12.7% and 2.3%, respectively). Girls were more likely to have ankle injuries (21.8%; relative risk, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-1.45; P < .01) and knee injuries (12.9%; relative risk, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.35; P < .01) than were boys (15.7% and 10.4%, respectively). Girls were more likely to have sprains or strains (42.4%) than were boys (31.3%; relative risk, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-1.40; P < .01). Children 2 to 4 years old sustained a higher proportion of face and head/neck injuries (41.0%) than did older children (15.5%; relative risk, 2.65; 95% confidence interval, 2.09-3.36; P < .01). When comparing these data to available national statistics that estimate participation in youth soccer, true injury rates may actually be decreasing for boys and girls. Young children should be closely supervised because of risk of head injuries and rate of hospitalization. The establishment of a national database of soccer participation and injury data is needed to better identify injury risks.

Effects of weight loss interventions for adults who are obese on mortality, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Chenhan; Avenell, Alison; Bolland, Mark; Hudson, Jemma; Stewart, Fiona; Robertson, Clare; Sharma, Pawana; Fraser, Cynthia; MacLennan, Graeme

2017-11-14

Objective  To assess whether weight loss interventions for adults with obesity affect all cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and body weight. Design  Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) using random effects, estimating risk ratios, and mean differences. Heterogeneity investigated using Cochran's Q and I 2 statistics. Quality of evidence assessed by GRADE criteria. Data sources  Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and full texts in our trials' registry for data not evident in databases. Authors were contacted for unpublished data. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies  RCTs of dietary interventions targeting weight loss, with or without exercise advice or programmes, for adults with obesity and follow-up ≥1 year. Results  54 RCTs with 30 206 participants were identified. All but one trial evaluated low fat, weight reducing diets. For the primary outcome, high quality evidence showed that weight loss interventions decrease all cause mortality (34 trials, 685 events; risk ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.95), with six fewer deaths per 1000 participants (95% confidence interval two to 10). For other primary outcomes moderate quality evidence showed an effect on cardiovascular mortality (eight trials, 134 events; risk ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 1.31), and very low quality evidence showed an effect on cancer mortality (eight trials, 34 events; risk ratio 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.30 to 1.11). Twenty four trials (15 176 participants) reported high quality evidence on participants developing new cardiovascular events (1043 events; risk ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.04). Nineteen trials (6330 participants) provided very low quality evidence on participants developing new cancers (103 events; risk ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.36). Conclusions  Weight reducing diets, usually low in fat and saturated fat, with or without exercise advice or programmes, may reduce premature all cause mortality in adults with obesity. Systematic review registration  PROSPERO CRD42016033217. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Prospective study of physical activity and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer

PubMed Central

Leitzmann, Michael F; Moore, Steven C; Peters, Tricia M; Lacey, James V; Schatzkin, Arthur; Schairer, Catherine; Brinton, Louise A; Albanes, Demetrius

2008-01-01

Introduction To prospectively examine the relation of total, vigorous and non-vigorous physical activity to postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Methods We studied 32,269 women enrolled in the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project Follow-up Study. Usual physical activity (including household, occupational and leisure activities) throughout the previous year was assessed at baseline using a self-administered questionnaire. Postmenopausal breast cancer cases were identified through self-reports, death certificates and linkage to state cancer registries. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the relative risk and 95% confidence intervals of postmenopausal breast cancer associated with physical activity. Results During 269,792 person-years of follow-up from 1987 to 1998, 1506 new incident cases of postmenopausal breast cancer were ascertained. After adjusting for potential risk factors of breast cancer, a weak inverse association between total physical activity and postmenopausal breast cancer was suggested (relative risk comparing extreme quintiles = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.74 to 1.02; p for trend = 0.21). That relation was almost entirely contributed by vigorous activity (relative risk comparing extreme categories = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.74 to 1.02; p for trend = 0.08). The inverse association with vigorous activity was limited to women who were lean (ie, body mass index <25.0 kg/m2: relative risk = 0.68; 95% confidence interval = 0.54 to 0.85). In contrast, no association with vigorous activity was noted among women who were overweight or obese (ie, body mass index ≥ 25.0 kg/m2: relative risk = 1.18; 95% confidence interval = 0.93 to 1.49; p for interaction = 0.008). Non-vigorous activity showed no relation to breast cancer (relative risk comparing extreme quintiles = 1.02; 95% confidence interval = 0.87 to 1.19; p for trend = 0.86). The physical activity and breast cancer relation was not specific to a certain hormone receptor subtype. Conclusions In this cohort of postmenopausal women, breast cancer risk reduction appeared to be limited to vigorous forms of activity; it was apparent among normal weight women but not overweight women, and the relation did not vary by hormone receptor status. Our findings suggest that physical activity acts through underlying biological mechanisms that are independent of body weight control. PMID:18976449

Contraceptive confidence and timing of first birth in Moldova: an event history analysis of retrospective data.

PubMed

Lyons-Amos, Mark; Padmadas, Sabu S; Durrant, Gabriele B

2014-08-11

To test the contraceptive confidence hypothesis in a modern context. The hypothesis is that women using effective or modern contraceptive methods have increased contraceptive confidence and hence a shorter interval between marriage and first birth than users of ineffective or traditional methods. We extend the hypothesis to incorporate the role of abortion, arguing that it acts as a substitute for contraception in the study context. Moldova, a country in South-East Europe. Moldova exhibits high use of traditional contraceptive methods and abortion compared with other European countries. Data are from a secondary analysis of the 2005 Moldovan Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative sample survey. 5377 unmarried women were selected. The outcome measure was the interval between marriage and first birth. This was modelled using a piecewise-constant hazard regression, with abortion and contraceptive method types as primary variables along with relevant sociodemographic controls. Women with high contraceptive confidence (modern method users) have a higher cumulative hazard of first birth 36 months following marriage (0.88 (0.87 to 0.89)) compared with women with low contraceptive confidence (traditional method users, cumulative hazard: 0.85 (0.84 to 0.85)). This is consistent with the contraceptive confidence hypothesis. There is a higher cumulative hazard of first birth among women with low (0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)) and moderate abortion propensities (0.76 (0.75 to 0.77)) than women with no abortion propensity (0.73 (0.72 to 0.74)) 24 months after marriage. Effective contraceptive use tends to increase contraceptive confidence and is associated with a shorter interval between marriage and first birth. Increased use of abortion also tends to increase contraceptive confidence and shorten birth duration, although this effect is non-linear-women with a very high use of abortion tend to have lengthy intervals between marriage and first birth. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Maternal Caffeine Consumption and Infant Nighttime Waking: Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Santos, Iná S.; Matijasevich, Alicia

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Coffee and other caffeinated beverages are commonly consumed in pregnancy. In adults, caffeine may interfere with sleep onset and have a dose-response effect similar to those seen during insomnia. In infancy, nighttime waking is a common event. With this study, we aimed to investigate if maternal caffeine consumption during pregnancy and lactation leads to frequent nocturnal awakening among infants at 3 months of age. METHODS: All children born in the city of Pelotas, Brazil, during 2004 were enrolled on a cohort study. Mothers were interviewed at delivery and after 3 months to obtain information on caffeine drinking consumption, sociodemographic, reproductive, and behavioral characteristics. Infant sleeping pattern in the previous 15 days was obtained from a subsample. Night waking was defined as an episode of infant arousal that woke the parents during nighttime. Multivariable analysis was performed by using Poisson regression. RESULTS: The subsample included 885 of the 4231 infants born in 2004. All but 1 mother consumed caffeine in pregnancy. Nearly 20% were heavy consumers (≥300 mg/day) during pregnancy and 14.3% at 3 months postpartum. Prevalence of frequent nighttime awakeners (>3 episodes per night) was 13.8% (95% confidence interval: 11.5%–16.0%). The highest prevalence ratio was observed among breastfed infants from mothers consuming ≥300 mg/day during the whole pregnancy and in the postpartum period (1.65; 95% confidence interval: 0.86–3.17) but at a nonsignificant level. CONCLUSIONS: Caffeine consumption during pregnancy and by nursing mothers seems not to have consequences on sleep of infants at the age of 3 months. PMID:22473365