Frigm, Ryan Clayton; Newman, Lauri K.
The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.
Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.
An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.
Vallejo, J.J.; Hejduk, M.D.; Stamey, J. D.
Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?
Hejduk, M.; Laporte, F.; Moury, M.; Newman, L.; Shepperd, R.
Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.
Narvet, Steven W.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Hejduk, Matthew D.
Conjunction Assessment operations require screening assets against the space object catalog by placing a pre-determined spatial volume around each asset and predicting when another object will violate that volume. The selection of the screening volume used for each spacecraft is a trade-off between observing all conjunction events that may pose a potential risk to the primary spacecraft and the ability to analyze those predicted events. If the screening volumes are larger, then more conjunctions can be observed and therefore the probability of a missed detection of a high risk conjunction event is small; however, the amount of data which needs to be analyzed increases. This paper characterizes the sensitivity of screening volume size to capturing typical orbit uncertainties and the expected number of conjunction events observed. These sensitivities are quantified in the form of a trade space that allows for selection of appropriate screen-ing volumes to fit the desired concept of operations, system limitations, and tolerable analyst workloads. This analysis will specifically highlight the screening volume determination and selection process for use in the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis process but will also provide a general framework for other Owner / Operators faced with similar decisions.
Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.
Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.
Hejduk, M. D.; Frigm, Ryan C.
Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest growing area in space situational awareness and protection with military, civil and commercial satellite owner-operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to avoid the avoidable - namely collisions between high value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunctions assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory. Joint Space Operations Center (JsPOC) conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.
Frigm, Ryan C.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.; Plakalovic, Dragan
On-orbit collision risk is becoming an increasing mission risk to all operational satellites in Earth orbit. Managing this risk can be disruptive to mission and operations, present challenges for decision-makers, and is time-consuming for all parties involved. With the planned capability improvements to detecting and tracking smaller orbital debris and capacity improvements to routinely predict on-orbit conjunctions, this mission risk will continue to grow in terms of likelihood and effort. It is very real possibility that the future space environment will not allow collision risk management and mission operations to be conducted in the same manner as it is today. This paper presents the concept of a finite conjunction assessment-one where each discrete conjunction is not treated separately but, rather, as a continuous event that must be managed concurrently. The paper also introduces the Total Probability of Collision as an analogous metric for finite conjunction assessment operations and provides several options for its usage in a Concept of Operations.
Frigm, R.; Johnson, L.
The Probability of Collision (Pc) has become a universal metric and statement of on-orbit collision risk. Although several flavors of the computation exist and are well-documented in the literature, the basic calculation requires the same input: estimates for the position, position uncertainty, and sizes of the two objects involved. The Pc is used operationally to make decisions on whether a given conjunction poses significant collision risk to the primary object (or space asset of concern). It is also used to determine necessity and degree of mitigative action (typically in the form of an orbital maneuver) to be performed. The predicted post-maneuver Pc also informs the maneuver planning process into regarding the timing, direction, and magnitude of the maneuver needed to mitigate the collision risk. Although the data sources, techniques, decision calculus, and workflows vary for different agencies and organizations, they all have a common thread. The standard conjunction assessment and collision risk concept of operations (CONOPS) predicts conjunctions, assesses the collision risk (typically, via the Pc), and plans and executes avoidance activities for conjunctions as a discrete events. As the space debris environment continues to increase and improvements are made to remote sensing capabilities and sensitivities to detect, track, and predict smaller debris objects, the number of conjunctions will in turn continue to increase. The expected order-of-magnitude increase in the number of predicted conjunctions will challenge the paradigm of treating each conjunction as a discrete event. The challenge will not be limited to workload issues, such as manpower and computing performance, but also the ability for satellite owner/operators to successfully execute their mission while also managing on-orbit collision risk. Executing a propulsive maneuver occasionally can easily be absorbed into the mission planning and operations tempo; whereas, continuously planning evasive
Plakaloic, D.; Hejduk, M. D.; Frigm, R. C.; Newman, L. K.
Satellite conjunction assessment risk analysis is a subjective enterprise that can benefit from quantitative aids and, to this end, NASA/GSFC has developed a fuzzy logic construct - called the F-value - to attempt to provide a statement of conjunction risk that amalgamates multiple indices and yields a more stable intra-event assessment. This construct has now sustained an extended tuning procedure against heuristic analyst assessment of event risk. The tuning effort has resulted in modifications to the calculation procedure and the adjustment of tuning coefficients, producing a construct with both more predictive force and a better statement of its error.
Ghrist, Richard W.; Plakalovic, Dragan
An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.
Newman, Lauri K.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Duncan, Matthew G.; Hejduk, Matthew D.
Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.
Hejduk, M. D.
The manipulation of space object covariances to try to provide additional or improved information to conjunction risk assessment is not an uncommon practice. Types of manipulation include fabricating a covariance when it is missing or unreliable to force the probability of collision (Pc) to a maximum value ('PcMax'), scaling a covariance to try to improve its realism or see the effect of covariance volatility on the calculated Pc, and constructing the equivalent of an epoch covariance at a convenient future point in the event ('covariance forecasting'). In bringing these methods to bear for Conjunction Assessment (CA) operations, however, some do not remain fully consistent with best practices for conducting risk management, some seem to be of relatively low utility, and some require additional information before they can contribute fully to risk analysis. This study describes some basic principles of modern risk management (following the Kaplan construct) and then examines the PcMax and covariance forecasting paradigms for alignment with these principles; it then further examines the expected utility of these methods in the modern CA framework. Both paradigms are found to be not without utility, but only in situations that are somewhat carefully circumscribed.
Newman, L.; Hejduk, M.; Frigm, R.; Duncan, M.
On-orbit collisions pose a significant mission risk to satellites operating in the space environment. Recognizing the likelihood and consequence of on-orbit collisions, NASA has taken several proactive measures to mitigate the risk of both a catastrophic loss of mission and the increase in the space debris population. In fall 2004, NASA GSFC established an Agency-wide, institutionalized process and service for identifying and reacting to predicted close approaches. The team responsible for executing this mission is the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team. By fall 2005, this process had resulted in the execution of the first collision avoidance maneuver by a NASA unmanned satellite. In February 2008, NASA adopted a policy, documented in NASA Procedural Requirement 8715.6a Process for Limiting Orbital Debris that directed maneuverable satellites to have such an on-orbit collision mitigation process. In 2009, NASA decided to require support for all operational satellites. By January 2014, the CARA team has processed nearly 500,000 close approach messages from the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) and has assisted our mission customers with planning and executing over 75 collision avoidance maneuvers for unmanned satellites in LEO, GEO, and HEO orbital regimes. With the increase in number of operational missions supported; growth in the orbital debris environment due to events such as the intentional destruction of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in 2007 and collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251; and improvements to the United States Space Surveillance Network (SSN) and its ability to track, catalog, and screen against small debris objects, the demands on the CARA process have consequently required the CARA Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to evolve to manage those demands. This evolution is centered on the ability to effectively and efficiently manage JSpOC, CARA, and Mission Operations resources, applying operational and analytical
Browns, Ansley C.
This viewgraph presentation discusses a brief history of NASA Human Spaceflight Conjunction Assessment (CA) activities, an overview of NASA CA process for ISS and Shuttle, and recent examples from Human Spaceflight conjunctions.
Ghrist, Richard; Ghrist, Richard; DeHart, Russel; Newman, Lauri
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognizes the risk of on-orbit collisions from other satellites and debris objects and has instituted a process to identify and react to close approaches. The charter of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) task is to protect NASA robotic (unmanned) assets from threats posed by other space objects. Monitoring for potential collisions requires formulating close-approach predictions a week or more in the future to determine analyze, and respond to orbital conjunction events of interest. These predictions require propagation of the latest state vector and covariance assuming a predicted atmospheric density and ballistic coefficient. Any differences between the predicted drag used for propagation and the actual drag experienced by the space objects can potentially affect the conjunction event. Therefore, the space environment itself, in particular how space weather impacts atmospheric drag, is an essential element to understand in order effectively to assess the risk of conjunction events. The focus of this research is to develop a better understanding of the impact of space weather on conjunction assessment activities: both accurately determining the current risk and assessing how that risk may change under dynamic space weather conditions. We are engaged in a data-- ]mining exercise to corroborate whether or not observed changes in a conjunction event's dynamics appear consistent with space weather changes and are interested in developing a framework to respond appropriately to uncertainty in predicted space weather. In particular, we use historical conjunction event data products to search for dynamical effects on satellite orbits from changing atmospheric drag. Increased drag is expected to lower the satellite specific energy and will result in the satellite's being 'later' than expected, which can affect satellite conjunctions in a number of ways depending on the two satellites' orbits
Newman, Lauri Kraft
Orbital debris poses a significant threat to spacecraft health and safety. Recent events such as China's anti-satellite test and the Breeze-M rocket explosion have led to an even greater awareness and concern in the satellite community. Therefore, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has established requirements that routine conjunction assessment screening shall be performed for all maneuverable spacecraft having perigees less than 2000 km or within 200 km of geosynchronous altitude. NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has developed an operational collision risk assessment process to protect NASA s high-value unmanned (robotic) assets that has been in use since January 2005. This paper provides an overview of the NASA robotic conjunction assessment process, including descriptions of the new tools developed to analyze close approach data and of the risk mitigation strategies employed. In addition, statistical data describing the number of conjunctions experienced are presented. A debris avoidance maneuver performed by Aura in June of 2008 is described in detail to illustrate the process.
Carpenter, James R.; Markley, F Landis
This paper shows how satellite owner/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.
Smith, Jason T.
This viewgraph presentation reviews the process of a human space flight conjunction assessment and lessons learned from the more than twelve years of International Space Station (ISS) operations. Also, the application of these lessons learned to a recent ISS conjunction assessment with object 84180 on July 16, 2009 is also presented.
Sabey, Nickolas J.
The latest Java and JavaFX technologies are very attractive software platforms for customers involved in space mission operations such as those of NASA and the US Air Force. For NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA), the NetBeans platform provided an environment in which scalable software solutions could be developed quickly and efficiently. Both Java 8 and the NetBeans platform are in the process of simplifying CARA development in secure environments by providing a significant amount of capability in a single accredited package, where accreditation alone can account for 6-8 months for each library or software application. Capabilities either in use or being investigated by CARA include: 2D and 3D displays with JavaFX, parallelization with the new Streams API, and scalability through the NetBeans plugin architecture.
Frigm, Ryan Clayton; McKinley, David P.
Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis relies heavily on the computation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) and the understanding of the sensitivity of this calculation to the position errors as defined by the covariance. In Low Earth Orbit (LEO), covariance is predominantly driven by perturbations due to atmospheric drag. This paper describes the effects of increasing atmospheric drag through Solar Cycle 24 on Pc calculations. The process of determining these effects is found through analyzing solar flux predictions on Energy Dissipation Rate (EDR), historical relationship between EDR and covariance, and the sensitivity of Pc to covariance. It is discovered that while all LEO satellites will be affected by the increase in solar activity, the relative effect is more significant in the LEO regime around 700 kilometers in altitude compared to 400 kilometers. Furthermore, it is shown that higher Pc values can be expected at larger close approach miss distances. Understanding these counter-intuitive results is important to setting Owner/Operator expectations concerning conjunctions as solar maximum approaches.
Nicolls, M.; Vittaldev, V.; Ceperley, D.; Creus-Costa, J.; Foster, C.; Griffith, N.; Lu, E.; Mason, J.; Park, I.; Rosner, C.; Stepan, L.
For companies with multiple orbital assets, managing the risk of collision with other low-Earth orbit (LEO) Resident Space Objects (RSOs) can amount to a significant operational burden. LeoLabs and Planet investigate the impact of a workflow that integrates commercial Space Situational Awareness (SSA) data into conjunction assessments for large satellite constellations. Radar measurements from LeoLabs are validated against truth orbits provided by the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) and to measurements from Planet’s on-board GPS instrumentation. The radar data is then used as input for orbit fits in order to form the basis of a conjunction assessment. To confirm the reliability of the orbit determination (OD), the generated ephemerides are validated against ILRS and GPS-derived orbits. In addition, a covariance realism assessment is performed in order to check for self-consistency by comparing the propagated orbit and the associated covariance against later measurements. Several cases are investigated to assess the benefits of integrating radar-derived products with Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs) received on Planet spacecraft. Conjunction assessment is refined using onboard GPS measurements from Planet satellites along with tracking measurements of the secondary RSO by LeoLabs. This study demonstrates that commercial data provided by LeoLabs is reliable, accurate, and timely, and that ephemeris generated from LeoLabs data provides solutions and insights which are consistent with those provided in CDMs. For the cases analyzed, the addition of commercial SSA data from LeoLabs has a positive impact on operations due to the additional information on the state of the secondary RSO which can lead to increased confidence in any maneuver-related decisions. Measurements from LeoLabs can also be used to improve conjunction assessment for commercial satellites that do not have any operator OD.
Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.
NASA is committed to safety of flight for all of its operational assets Performed by CARA at NASA GSFC for robotic satellites Focus of this briefing Performed by TOPO at NASA JSC for human spaceflight he Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) was stood up to offer this service to all NASA robotic satellites Currently provides service to 70 operational satellites NASA unmanned operational assets Other USG assets (USGS, USAF, NOAA) International partner assets Conjunction Assessment (CA) is the process of identifying close approaches between two orbiting objects; sometimes called conjunction screening The Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) a USAF unit at Vandenberg AFB, maintains the high accuracy catalog of space objects, screens CARA-supported assets against the catalog, performs OD tasking, and generates close approach data.
Berry, David; Guinn, Joseph; Tarzi, Zahi; Demcak, Stuart
Conjunction assessment and collision avoidance are areas of current high interest in space operations. Most current conjunction assessment activity focuses on the Earth orbital environment. Several of the world's space agencies have satellites in orbit at Mars and the Moon, and avoiding collisions there is important too. Smaller number of assets than Earth, and smaller number of organizations involved, but consequences similar to Earth scenarios.This presentation will examine conjunction assessment processes implemented at JPL for spacecraft in orbit at Mars and the Moon.
Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.
Kelso, T. S.; Alfano, S.
While many satellite operators are aware of the possibility of a collision between their satellite and another object in earth orbit, most seem unaware of the frequency of near misses occurring each day. Until recently, no service existed to advise satellite operators of an impending conjunction of a satellite payload with another satellite, putting the responsibility for determining these occurrences squarely on the satellite operator's shoulders. This problem has been further confounded by the lack of a timely, comprehensive data set of satellite orbital element sets and computationally efficient tools to provide predictions using industry-standard software. As a result, hundreds of conjunctions within 1 km occur each week, with little or no intervention, putting billions of dollars of space hardware at risk, along with their associated missions. As a service to the satellite operator community, the Center for Space Standards & Innovation (CSSI) offers SOCRATES-Satellite Orbital Conjunction Reports Assessing Threatening Encounters in Space. Twice each day, CSSI runs a list of all satellite payloads on orbit against a list of all objects on orbit using the catalog of all unclassified NORAD two-line element sets to look for conjunctions over the next seven days. The runs are made using STK/CAT-Satellite Tool Kit's Conjunction Analysis Tools-together with the NORAD SGP4 propagator in STK. This paper will discuss how SOCRATES works and how it can help satellite operators avoid undesired close approaches through advanced mission planning.
Newman, Lauri Kraft
This viewgraph presentation discusses NASA's processes and tools used to mitigate threats to NASA's robotic assets. The topics include: 1) Background; 2) Goddard Stakeholders and Mission Support; 3) ESC and TDRS Mission Descriptions; 4) TDRS Conjunction Assessment Process; 5) ESMO Conjunction Assessment Process; 6) Recent Operations Experiences; 7) Statistics Collected for ESC Regime; and 8) Current and Future Analysis Items.
Tarzi, Zahi B.; Berry, David S.; Roncoli, Ralph B.
There is currently a high level of interest in the areas of conjunction assessment and collision avoidance from organizations conducting space operations. Current conjunction assessment activity is mainly focused on spacecraft and debris in the Earth orbital environment . However, collisions are possible in other orbital environments as well . This paper will focus on the current operations of and recent updates to the Multimission Automated Deep Space Conjunction Assessment Process (MADCAP) used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory for NASA to perform conjunction assessment at Mars and the Moon. Various space agencies have satellites in orbit at Mars and the Moon with additional future missions planned. The consequences of collisions are catastrophically high. Intuitive notions predict low probability of collisions in these sparsely populated environments, but may be inaccurate due to several factors. Orbits of scientific interest often tend to have similar characteristics as do the orbits of spacecraft that provide a communications relay for surface missions. The MADCAP process is controlled by an automated scheduler which initializes analysis based on a set timetable or the appearance of new ephemeris files either locally or on the Deep Space Network (DSN) Portal. The process then generates and communicates reports which are used to facilitate collision avoidance decisions. The paper also describes the operational experience and utilization of the automated tool during periods of high activity and interest such as: the close approaches of NASA's Lunar Atmosphere & Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) during the LADEE mission. In addition, special consideration was required for the treatment of missions with rapidly varying orbits and less reliable long term downtrack estimates; in particular this was necessitated by perturbations to MAVEN's orbit induced by the Martian atmosphere. The application of special techniques to non
Hejduk, M. D.; Pachura, D. A.
Conjunction Assessment screening volumes used in the protection of NASA satellites are constructed as geometric volumes about these satellites, of a size expected to capture a certain percentage of the serious conjunction events by a certain time before closest approach. However, the analyses that established these sizes were grounded on covariance-based projections rather than empirical screening results, did not tailor the volume sizes to ensure operational actionability of those results, and did not consider the adjunct ability to produce data that could provide prevenient assistance for maneuver planning. The present study effort seeks to reconsider these questions based on a six-month dataset of empirical screening results using an extremely large screening volume. The results, pursued here for a highly-populated orbit regime near 700 km altitude, identify theoretical limits of screening volume performance, explore volume configuration to facilitate both maneuver remediation planning as well as basic asset protection, and recommend sizing principles that maximize volume performance while minimizing the capture of "chaff" conjunctions that are unlikely ever to become serious events.
The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.
Kline, Nancy E; Davis, Mary Elizabeth; Thom, Bridgette
Patient falls are a common cause of morbidity and are the leading cause of injury deaths in adults age 65 years and older. Injuries sustained as result of falls in a cancer hospital are often severe, regardless of patient age, due to the nature of the underlying cancer. Falls are a nursing-sensitive indicator and nurses are in a unique position to assess, design, implement, and evaluate programs for fall risk reduction. We analyzed our nursing processes related to falls and fall prevention in conjunction with an evidence-based review, a research study to improve our fall risk-assessment process, and development of a comprehensive fall-reduction program. This article outlines how our institution developed a fall risk assessment for the oncology patient population, and utilized this assessment in a comprehensive nursing approach to fall prevention in both inpatient and outpatient settings.
Williams, Trevor; Carpenter, Russell; Farahmand, Mitra; Ottenstein, Neil; Demoret, Michael; Godine, Dominic
This paper will describe the results that have been obtained to date during the MMS mission concerning conjunction assessment. MMS navigation makes use of a weak-signal GPS-based system: this allows signals to be received even when MMS is flying above the GPS orbits, producing a highly accurate determination of the four MMS orbits. This data is downlinked to the MMS Mission Operations Center (MOC) and used by the Flight Dynamics Operations Area (FDOA) for both maneuver design and conjunction assessment. The MMS fly in tetrahedron formations around apogee, in order to collect simultaneous particles and fields science data. The original plan was to fly tetrahedra between 10 and 160 km in size; however, after Phase 1a of the mission, the science team requested that smaller sizes be flown if feasible. After analysis (to be detailed in a companion paper), a new minimum size of 7 km was decided upon. Flying at this reduced scale size makes conjunction assessment between the MMS spacecraft even more important: the methods that are used by the MMS FDOA to address this problem will be described in the paper, and a summary given of the previous analyses that went into the development of these techniques. Details will also be given of operational experiences to date. Finally, two CA mitigation maneuver types that have been designed (but never yet required to actually be performed) will also be outlined.
Hall, Doyle T.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.
The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has recently implemented updated software to calculate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm can employ complex dynamical models for orbital motion, and account for the effects of non-linear trajectories as well as both position and velocity uncertainties. This “3D P (sub c)” method entails computing a 3-dimensional numerical integral for each estimated probability. Our analysis indicates that the 3D method provides several new insights over the traditional “2D P (sub c)” method, even when approximating the orbital motion using the relatively simple Keplerian two-body dynamical model. First, the formulation provides the means to estimate variations in the time derivative of the collision probability, or the probability rate, R (sub c). For close-proximity satellites, such as those orbiting in formations or clusters, R (sub c) variations can show multiple peaks that repeat or blend with one another, providing insight into the ongoing temporal distribution of risk. For single, isolated conjunctions, R (sub c) analysis provides the means to identify and bound the times of peak collision risk. Additionally, analysis of multiple actual archived conjunctions demonstrates that the commonly used “2D P (sub c)” approximation can occasionally provide inaccurate estimates. These include cases in which the 2D method yields negligibly small probabilities (e.g., P (sub c)) is greater than 10 (sup -10)), but the 3D estimates are sufficiently large to prompt increased monitoring or collision mitigation (e.g., P (sub c) is greater than or equal to 10 (sup -5)). Finally, the archive analysis indicates that a relatively efficient calculation can be used to identify which conjunctions will have negligibly small probabilities. This small-P (sub c) screening test can significantly speed the overall risk analysis computation for large numbers of conjunctions.
Hejduk, M. D.; Duncan, M.
Primary and secondary covariances combined and projected into conjunction plane (plane perpendicular to relative velocity vector at TCA) Primary placed on x-axis at (miss distance, 0) and represented by circle of radius equal to sum of both spacecraft circumscribing radiiZ-axis perpendicular to x-axis in conjunction plane Pc is portion of combined error ellipsoid that falls within the hard-body radius circle
Varzakas, Theodoros H
The Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) model has been applied for the risk assessment of pastry processing. A tentative approach of FMEA application to the pastry industry was attempted in conjunction with ISO22000. Preliminary Hazard Analysis was used to analyze and predict the occurring failure modes in a food chain system (pastry processing plant), based on the functions, characteristics, and/or interactions of the ingredients or the processes, upon which the system depends. Critical Control points have been identified and implemented in the cause and effect diagram (also known as Ishikawa, tree diagram, and fishbone diagram). In this work a comparison of ISO22000 analysis with HACCP is carried out over pastry processing and packaging. However, the main emphasis was put on the quantification of risk assessment by determining the Risk Priority Number (RPN) per identified processing hazard. Storage of raw materials and storage of final products at -18°C followed by freezing were the processes identified as the ones with the highest RPN (225, 225, and 144 respectively) and corrective actions were undertaken. Following the application of corrective actions, a second calculation of RPN values was carried out leading to considerably lower values (below the upper acceptable limit of 130). It is noteworthy that the application of Ishikawa (Cause and Effect or Tree diagram) led to converging results thus corroborating the validity of conclusions derived from risk assessment and FMEA. Therefore, the incorporation of FMEA analysis within the ISO22000 system of a pastry processing industry is considered imperative.
Lund, Bodil; Hultin, Margareta; Tranaeus, Sofia; Naimi-Akbar, Aron; Klinge, Björn
The aim of this study was to revisit the available scientific literature regarding perioperative antibiotics in conjunction with implant placement by combining the recommended methods for systematic reviews and complex systematic reviews. A search of Medline (OVID), The Cochrane Library (Wiley), EMBASE, PubMed and Health technology assessment (HTA) organizations was performed, in addition to a complementary hand-search. Selected systematic reviews and primary studies were assessed using GRADE and AMSTAR, respectively. A meta-analysis was performed. The literature search identified 846 papers of which 10 primary studies and seven systematic reviews were included. Quality assessment of the systematic reviews revealed two studies of moderate risk of bias and five with high risk of bias. The two systematic reviews of moderate risk of bias stated divergent numbers needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one patient from implant failure. Four of the primary studies comparing antibiotic prophylaxis with placebo were estimated to be of low, or moderate, risk of bias and subjected to meta-analysis. The NNT was 50 (pooled RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.18, 0.84; P = 0.02). None of these four studies individually show a statistical significant benefit of antibiotic prophylaxis. Furthermore, narrative analysis of the studies eligible for meta-analysis reveals clinical heterogeneity regarding intervention and smoking. Antibiotic prophylaxis in conjunction with implant placement reduced the risk for implant loss by 2%. However, the sub-analysis of the primary studies suggests that there is no benefit of antibiotic prophylaxis in uncomplicated implant surgery in healthy patient. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Mattfeld, Bryan; Stromgren, Chel; Shyface, Hilary; Komar, David R.; Cirillo, William; Goodliff, Kandyce
Candidate human missions to Mars, including NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, have focused on conjunction-class missions with long crewed durations and minimum energy trajectories to reduce total propellant requirements and total launch mass. However, in order to progressively reduce risk and gain experience in interplanetary mission operations, it may be desirable that initial human missions to Mars, whether to the surface or to Mars orbit, have shorter total crewed durations and minimal stay times at the destination. Opposition-class missions require larger total energy requirements relative to conjunction-class missions but offer the potential for much shorter mission durations, potentially reducing risk and overall systems performance requirements. This paper will present a detailed comparison of conjunction-class and opposition-class human missions to Mars vicinity with a focus on how such missions could be integrated into the initial phases of a Mars exploration campaign. The paper will present the results of a trade study that integrates trajectory/propellant analysis, element design, logistics and sparing analysis, and risk assessment to produce a comprehensive comparison of opposition and conjunction exploration mission constructs. Included in the trade study is an assessment of the risk to the crew and the trade offs between the mission duration and element, logistics, and spares mass. The analysis of the mission trade space was conducted using four simulation and analysis tools developed by NASA. Trajectory analyses for Mars destination missions were conducted using VISITOR (Versatile ImpulSive Interplanetary Trajectory OptimizeR), an in-house tool developed by NASA Langley Research Center. Architecture elements were evaluated using EXploration Architecture Model for IN-space and Earth-to-orbit (EXAMINE), a parametric modeling tool that generates exploration architectures through an integrated systems model. Logistics analysis was conducted using
Brainerd, C. J.; Holliday, R. E.; Nakamura, K.; Reyna, V. F.
Recent research on the overdistribution principle implies that episodic memory is infected by conjunction illusions. These are instances in which an item that was presented in a single context (e.g., List 1) is falsely remembered as having been presented in multiple contexts (e.g., List 1 and List 2). Robust conjunction illusions were detected in source-monitoring designs in which conjunctive probes (Was bagpipe presented on List 1 and List 2?) were added to the traditional nonconjunctive probes (Was bagpipe presented on List 1?). In Experiment 1, the levels of those illusions were comparable to what would be expected on the basis of results from prior overdistribution experiments. In Experiments 2 and 3, conjunction illusions were neither eliminated nor reduced by a manipulation that should have had such effects if the illusions are by-products of subjective differences in retrieved memory support. Also, conjunction illusions sometimes rose to the level of conjunction fallacies: In certain conditions, subjects thought that items were more likely to have occurred in all the presentation contexts than in any single context, which is impossible. Two general approaches to explaining overdistribution, representational accounts and retrieval accounts, are considered. PMID:24911136
Tagliaferri, Angela; Love, Thomas E.; Szczotka-Flynn, Loretta
BACKGROUND Contact lens induced papillary conjunctivitis (CLPC) continues to be a major cause of dropout during contact lens extended wear. This retrospective study explores risk factors for the development of CLPC during silicone hydrogel lens extended wear. METHODS Data from 205 subjects enrolled in the Longitudinal Analysis of Silicone Hydrogel Contact Lens (LASH) study wearing lotrafilcon A silicone hydrogel lenses for up to 30 days of continuous wear were used to determine risk factors for CLPC in this secondary analysis of the main cohort. The main covariates of interest included substantial lens-associated bacterial bioburden, and topographically determined lens base curve-to-cornea fitting relationships. Additional covariates of interest included history of prior adverse events, time of year, race, education level, gender and other subject demographics. Statistical analyses included univariate logistic regression to assess the impact of potential risk factors on the binary CLPC outcome, and Cox proportional hazards regression to describe the impact of those factors on time-to-CLPC diagnosis. RESULTS Across 12 months of follow-up, 52 subjects (25%) experienced CLPC. No associations were found between CLPC development and the presence of bacterial bioburden, lens-to-cornea fitting relationships, history of prior adverse events, gender or race. CLPC development followed the same seasonal trends as the local peaks in environmental allergans. CONCLUSIONS Lens fit and biodeposits, in the form of lens associated bacterial bioburden, were not associated with the development of CLPC during extended wear with lotrafilcon A silicone hydrogel lenses. PMID:24681609
Hejduk, M. D.
Use of probability of collision (Pc) has brought sophistication to CA. Made possible by JSpOC precision catalogue because provides covariance. Has essentially replaced miss distance as basic CA parameter. Embrace of Pc has elevated methods to 'manipulate' covariance to enable/improve CA calculations. Two such methods to be examined here; compensation for absent or unreliable covariances through 'Maximum Pc' calculation constructs, projection (not propagation) of epoch covariances forward in time to try to enable better risk assessments. Two questions to be answered about each; situations to which such approaches are properly applicable, amount of utility that such methods offer.
Hong, Jiaxu; Zhong, Taoling; Li, Huili; Xu, Jianming; Ye, Xiaofang; Mu, Zhe; Lu, Yi; Mashaghi, Alireza; Zhou, Ying; Tan, Mengxi; Li, Qiyuan; Sun, Xinghuai; Liu, Zuguo; Xu, Jianjiang
Allergic conjunctivitis is a common problem that significantly impairs patients’ quality of life. Whether air pollution serves as a risk factor for the development of allergic conjunctivitis remains elusive. In this paper, we assess the relationship between air pollutants and weather conditions with outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis. By using a time-series analysis based on the largest dataset ever assembled to date, we found that the number of outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis was significantly correlated with the levels of NO2, O3, and temperature, while its association with humidity was statistically marginal. No associations between PM10, PM2.5, SO2, or wind velocity and outpatient visits were seen. Subgroup analyses showed that sex seemed to modify the effects of humidity on outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis, but not for NO2, O3, or temperature. People younger than 40 were found to be susceptible to changes of all four parameters, while those older than 40 were only consistently affected by NO2 levels. Our findings revealed that higher levels of ambient NO2, O3, and temperature increase the chances of outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis. Ambient air pollution and weather changes may contribute to the worsening of allergic conjunctivitis.
Hong, Jiaxu; Zhong, Taoling; Li, Huili; Xu, Jianming; Ye, Xiaofang; Mu, Zhe; Lu, Yi; Mashaghi, Alireza; Zhou, Ying; Tan, Mengxi; Li, Qiyuan; Sun, Xinghuai; Liu, Zuguo; Xu, Jianjiang
Allergic conjunctivitis is a common problem that significantly impairs patients' quality of life. Whether air pollution serves as a risk factor for the development of allergic conjunctivitis remains elusive. In this paper, we assess the relationship between air pollutants and weather conditions with outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis. By using a time-series analysis based on the largest dataset ever assembled to date, we found that the number of outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis was significantly correlated with the levels of NO2, O3, and temperature, while its association with humidity was statistically marginal. No associations between PM10, PM2.5, SO2, or wind velocity and outpatient visits were seen. Subgroup analyses showed that sex seemed to modify the effects of humidity on outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis, but not for NO2, O3, or temperature. People younger than 40 were found to be susceptible to changes of all four parameters, while those older than 40 were only consistently affected by NO2 levels. Our findings revealed that higher levels of ambient NO2, O3, and temperature increase the chances of outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis. Ambient air pollution and weather changes may contribute to the worsening of allergic conjunctivitis.
Meyers-Schoene, L.; Fischer, N.T.; Rabe, J.J.
Mather Air Force Base (AFB) is among the numerous facilities scheduled for closure under the US Air Force (USAF) Installation Restoration Program (IRP). A component of the Mather AFB IRP is to prepare risk assessments for each of the chemically contaminated sites. Because no previous ecological risk related studies have been conducted on Mather AFB, the authors proposed a phased approach to assessing ecological risks at the base. Phase 1 consisted of baseline ecological surveys that collected data over a 12-month period. In addition, benchmark screening criteria were used in conjunction with modeling results that utilized measured concentrations of chemicalmore » analytes in abiotic samples. Phase 2 may consist of the collection of more site-specific data and toxicity testing, if warranted by the Phase 1 screening analysis. This approach was in agreement with the USAF`s ecological risk assessment guidance and met the approval of the Air Force and USEPA Region 9. The authors found the use of established and derived screening values to effectively aid in the focusing of the ecological risk assessment on those chemicals most likely to be hazardous to ecological receptors at the base. Disadvantages in the use of screening values include the uncertainties associated with the conservative assumptions inherent in the derivation of benchmark values and the difficulty in extrapolating from laboratory determined benchmark values to impacts in the field.« less
This project will evaluate the current state of quantitative models that simulate physiological processes, and the how these models might be used in conjunction with the current use of PBPK and BBDR models in risk assessment. The work will include a literature search to identify...
Tentori, Katya; Bonini, Nicolao; Osherson, Daniel
It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X, Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. Whether an error is thereby committed depends on reasoners' interpretation of the expressions "probability" and "and." We report two experiments designed to clarify the normative status of…
Jadhav, Sachin; Sattar, Naveed; Petrie, John R; Cobbe, Stuart M; Ferrell, William R
Interrogation of peripheral vascular function is increasingly recognized as a noninvasive surrogate marker for coronary vascular function and carries with it important prognostic information regarding future cardiovascular risk. Laser Doppler imaging (LDI) is a completely noninvasive method for looking at peripheral microvascular function. We sought to look at reproducibility and repeatability of LDI-derived assessment of peripheral microvascular function between arms and 8 weeks apart. We used LDI in conjunction with iontophoretic application of ACh and SNP to look at endothelium-dependent and -independent microvascular function, respectively, in a mixture of women with cardiac syndrome X and healthy volunteers. We looked at variation between arms (n = 40) and variation at 8 weeks apart (n = 22). When measurements were corrected for skin resistance, there was nonsignificant variation between arms for ACh (2.7%) and SNP (3.8%) and nonsignificant temporal variation for ACh (3.5%) and SNP (4.7%). Construction of Bland-Altman plots reinforce that measurements have good repeatability. Elimination of the baseline perfusion response had deleterious effects on repeatability. LDI can be used to assess peripheral vascular response with good repeatability as long as measurements are corrected for skin resistance, which affects drug delivery. This has important implications for the future use of LDI.
Lidtke, Aleksander A.; Lewis, Hugh G.; Armellin, Roberto
Space debris simulations show that if current space launches continue unchanged, spacecraft operations might become difficult in the congested space environment. It has been suggested that Active Debris Removal (ADR) might be necessary in order to prevent such a situation. Selection of objects to be targeted by ADR is considered important because removal of non-relevant objects will unnecessarily increase the cost of ADR. One of the factors to be used in this ADR target selection is the collision probability accumulated by every object. This paper shows the impact of high-probability conjunctions on the collision probability accumulated by individual objects as well as the probability of any collision occurring in orbit. Such conjunctions cannot be predicted far in advance and, consequently, not all the objects that will be involved in such dangerous conjunctions can be removed through ADR. Therefore, a debris remediation method that would address such events at short notice, and thus help prevent likely collisions, is suggested.
Parra, Mario A; Fabi, Katia; Luzzi, Simona; Cubelli, Roberto; Hernandez Valdez, Maria; Della Sala, Sergio
Remembering complex events requires binding features within unified objects (conjunctions) and holding associations between objects (relations). Recent studies suggest that the two functions dissociate in long-term memory (LTM). Less is known about their functional organization in short-term memory (STM). The present study investigated this issue in patient AE affected by a stroke which caused damage to brain regions known to be relevant for relational functions both in LTM and in STM (i.e., the hippocampus). The assessment involved a battery of standard neuropsychological tasks and STM binding tasks. One STM binding task (Experiment 1) presented common objects and common colors forming either pairs (relations) or integrated objects (conjunctions). Free recall of relations or conjunctions was assessed. A second STM binding task used random polygons and non-primary colors instead (Experiment 2). Memory was assessed by selecting the features that made up the relations or the conjunctions from a set of single polygons and a set of single colors. The neuropsychological assessment revealed impaired delayed memory in AE. AE's pronounced relational STM binding deficits contrasted with his completely preserved conjunctive binding functions in both Experiments 1 and 2. Only 2.35% and 1.14% of the population were expected to have a discrepancy more extreme than that presented by AE in Experiments 1 and 2, respectively. Processing relations and conjunctions of very elementary nonspatial features in STM led to dissociating performances in AE. These findings may inform current theories of memory decline such as those linked to cognitive aging.
Brainerd, C. J.; Holliday, Robyn E.; Nakamura, Koyuki; Reyna, Valerie F.
Recent research on the overdistribution principle implies that episodic memory is infected by conjunction illusions. These are instances in which an item that was presented in a single context (e.g., List 1) is falsely remembered as having been presented in multiple contexts (e.g., List 1 and List 2). Robust conjunction illusions were detected in…
Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo; Russo, Selena
Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such…
DiGerolamo, Kimberly; Davis, Katherine Finn
Patient fall prevention begins with accurate risk assessment. However, sustained improvements in prevention and quality of care include use of validated fall risk assessment tools (FRATs). The goal of FRATs is to identify patients at highest risk. Adult FRATs are often borrowed from to create tools for pediatric patients. Though factors associated with pediatric falls in the hospital setting are similar to those in adults, such as mobility, medication use, and cognitive impairment, adult FRATs and the factors associated with them do not adequately assess risk in children. Articles were limited to English language, ages 0-21years, and publish date 2006-2015. The search yielded 22 articles. Ten were excluded as the population was primarily adult or lacked discussion of a FRAT. Critical appraisal and findings were synthesized using the Johns Hopkins Nursing evidence appraisal system. Twelve articles relevant to fall prevention in the pediatric hospital setting that discussed fall risk assessment and use of a FRAT were reviewed. Comparison between and accuracy of FRATs is challenged when different classifications, definitions, risk stratification, and inclusion criteria are used. Though there are several pediatric FRATs published in the literature, none have been found to be reliable and valid across institutions and diverse populations. This integrative review highlights the importance of choosing a FRAT based on an institution's identified risk factors and validating the tool for one's own patient population as well as using the tool in conjunction with nursing clinical judgment to guide interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological features were extracted; including, sensor placement, derived parameters used to assess fall risk, fall risk classification method, and fall risk classification model outcomes. Results Inertial sensors were placed only on the lower back in the majority of papers (65%). One hundred and thirty distinct variables were assessed, which were categorized as position and angle (7.7%), angular velocity (11.5%), linear acceleration (20%), spatial (3.8%), temporal (23.1%), energy (3.8%), frequency (15.4%), and other (14.6%). Fallers were classified using retrospective fall history (30%), prospective fall occurrence (15%), and clinical assessment (32.5%), with 22.5% using a combination of retrospective fall occurrence and clinical assessments. Half of the studies derived models for fall risk prediction, which reached high levels of accuracy (62-100%), specificity (35-100%), and sensitivity (55-99%). Conclusions Inertial sensors are promising sensors for fall risk assessment. Future studies should identify fallers using prospective techniques and focus on determining the most promising sensor sites, in conjunction with determination of optimally predictive variables. Further research should also attempt to link predictive variables to specific fall risk factors and investigate disease populations that are at high risk of falls. PMID:23927446
Yoon, Jin Ho; Branch, Marc N
Under multiple schedules of reinforcement, previous research has generally observed tolerance to the rate-decreasing effects of cocaine that has been dependent on schedule-parameter size in the context of fixed-ratio (FR) schedules, but not under the context of fixed-interval (FI) schedules of reinforcement. The current experiment examined the effects of cocaine on key-pecking responses of White Carneau pigeons maintained under a three-component multiple conjunctive FI (10 s, 30 s, & 120 s) FR (5 responses) schedule of food presentation. Dose-effect curves representing the effects of presession cocaine on responding were assessed in the context of (1) acute administration of cocaine (2) chronic administration of cocaine and (3) daily administration of saline. Chronic administration of cocaine generally resulted in tolerance to the response-rate decreasing effects of cocaine, and that tolerance was generally independent of relative FI value, as measured by changes in ED50 values. Daily administration of saline decreased ED50 values to those observed when cocaine was administered acutely. The results show that adding a FR requirement to FI schedules is not sufficient to produce schedule-parameter-specific tolerance. Tolerance to cocaine was generally independent of FI-parameter under the present conjunctive schedules, indicating that a ratio requirement, per se, is not sufficient for tolerance to be dependent on FI parameter.
Wilson, Vickie S., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan
The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanismmore » or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.« less
Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.
A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.
Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo; Russo, Selena
Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such accounts with a different reading of the phenomenon based on the notion of inductive confirmation as defined by contemporary Bayesian theorists. Averaging rule hypotheses along with the random error model and many other existing proposals are shown to all imply that conjunction fallacy rates would rise as the perceived probability of the added conjunct does. By contrast, our account predicts that the conjunction fallacy depends on the added conjunct being perceived as inductively confirmed. Four studies are reported in which the judged probability versus confirmation of the added conjunct have been systematically manipulated and dissociated. The results consistently favor a confirmation-theoretic account of the conjunction fallacy against competing views. Our proposal is also discussed in connection with related issues in the study of human inductive reasoning. 2013 APA, all rights reserved
... you can put on your web pages. Conjunctivitis (Pink Eye) One-Page Overview Pink, itchy eyes? Conjunctivitis – or ... protect yourself from getting and spreading pink eye . Pink Eye: What To Do Discusses causes and treatment, when ...
Treisman, A; Sato, S
Search for conjunctions of highly discriminable features can be rapid or even parallel. This article explores three possible accounts based on (a) perceptual segregation, (b) conjunction detectors, and (c) inhibition controlled separately by two or more distractor features. Search rates for conjunctions of color, size, orientation, and direction of motion correlated closely with an independent measure of perceptual segregation. However, they appeared unrelated to the physiology of single-unit responses. Each dimension contributed additively to conjunction search rates, suggesting that each was checked independently of the others. Unknown targets appear to be found only by serial search for each in turn. Searching through 4 sets of distractors was slower than searching through 2. The results suggest a modification of feature integration theory, in which attention is controlled not only by a unitary "window" but also by a form of feature-based inhibition.
Wolf, Sebastian I; Fradet, Laetitia; Rettig, Oliver
This contribution mathematically formalizes Codman's idea of conjunct rotation, a term he used in 1934 to describe a paradoxical phenomenon arising from a closed-loop arm movement. Real (axial) rotation is distinguished from conjunct rotation. For characterizing the latter, the idea of reference vector fields is developed to define the neutral axial position of the humerus for any given orientation of its long axis. This concept largely avoids typical coordinate singularities arising from decomposition of 3D joint motion and therefore can be used for postural (axial) assessment of the shoulder joint both clinically and in sports science in almost the complete accessible range of motion. The concept, even though algebraic rather complex, might help to get an easier and more intuitive understanding of axial rotation of the shoulder in complex movements present in daily life and in sports.
Kelly, A.; Watson, W.
This paper describes one of the challenges facing the flight operations teams of the International Earth Observing constellation satellites at the 705 km orbit, including NASAs satellites. The NASA Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Project has been dealing with predicted conjunctions (close approach) between operational/non-operational space objects and the satellites in the International Earth observing constellations for several years. Constellation satellites include: NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra, Aqua, and Aura, CloudSat, the joint NASA/CNES CALIPSO mission, Earth Observing 1 (EO-1), the Japan Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAXA) Global Change Observation Mission-Water 1 (GCOM-W1) mission, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Landsat 7 and Landsat 8, and until 2013, Argentinas SAC-C mission and the CNES PARASOL mission. The NASA Conjunction Analysis and Risk Assessment (CARA) team provides daily reports to the ESMO Project regarding any high interest close approach events (HIEs) involving the constellation satellites. The daily CARA reports provide risk assessment results that help the operations teams to determine if there is a need to perform a risk mitigation action. If the conjuncting space object is an operational satellite that is capable of maneuvering, the affected satellite team needs to coordinate their action plan with the owner operator of the conjuncting satellite. It is absolutely critical for the two teams to communicate as soon as possible. The goal is to minimize the collision risk; this can happen if both satellite operators do not coordinate their maneuver plans. The constellation teams have established guidelines for coordinating HIEs. This coordination process has worked successfully for several years for satellites that are operated by other organizations in the United States and by NASAs international partners, all with whom NASA has a cooperative agreement. However, the situation is different for HIEs with
Bredehoeft, John D.; Young, Richard A.
In examining the South Platte system in Colorado where surface water and groundwater are used conjunctively for irrigation, we find the actual installed well capacity is approximately sufficient to irrigate the entire area. This would appear to be an overinvestment in well capacity. In this paper we examine to what extent groundwater is being developed as insurance against periods of low streamflow. Using a simulation model which couples the hydrology of a conjunctive stream aquifer system to a behavioral-economic model which incorporates farmer behavior in such a system, we have investigated the economics of an area patterned after a reach of the South Platte Valley in Colorado. The results suggest that under current economic conditions the most reasonable groundwater pumping capacity is a total capacity capable of irrigating the available acreage with groundwater. Installing sufficient well capacity to irrigate all available acreage has two benefits: (1) this capacity maximizes the expected net benefits and (2) this capacity also minimizes the variation in annual income: it reduces the variance to essentially zero. As pumping capacity is installed in a conjunctive use system, the value of flow forecasts is diminished. Poor forecasts are compensated for by pumping groundwater.
Bott, Lewis; Frisson, Steven; Murphy, Gregory L
The interpretation generated from a sentence of the form P and Q can often be different to that generated by Q and P, despite the fact that and has a symmetric truth-conditional meaning. We experimentally investigated to what extent this difference in meaning is due to the connective and and to what extent it is due to order of mention of the events in the sentence. In three experiments, we collected interpretations of sentences in which we varied the presence of the conjunction, the order of mention of the events, and the type of relation holding between the events (temporally vs. causally related events). The results indicated that the effect of using a conjunction was dependent on the discourse relation between the events. Our findings contradict a narrative marker theory of and, but provide partial support for a single-unit theory derived from Carston (2002). The results are discussed in terms of conjunction processing and implicatures of temporal order.
Chen, Yin-Huei; Lin, Cheng-Li; Bau, Da-Tian; Hung, Yi-Chih
In accordance with the dichotomy between T helper type 1(Th1) and T helper type 2 (Th2) responses, the occurrence of allergic conjunctivitis (AC) and type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is, in theory, inversely related in the individual. However, recent studies investigating the association between the two diseases are controversial. Population-based cohort study. We used claims data of the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan. We identified 4160 patients aged 1-30 years with newly diagnosed T1DM and no history of AC at baseline. For each patient with T1DM, four non-T1DM controls (n=16,640) were matched by sex. The mean follow-up time was 6 years. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to evaluate the risk of AC. We additionally evaluated the association between risk of AC and T1DM progression by examining Diabetes Complications Severity Index (aDCSI) changes from the date of diagnosis until the end of follow-up. The overall incidence of allergic conjunctivitis (AC) was higher in the type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) cohort than in the control cohort (23.0 vs 13.5 per 1000 person-years, adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR): 1.59, 95% CI 1.47 to 1.71). Relative to that in patients with mildly progressive T1DM, the risk of AC increased as the adapted Diabetes Complications Severity Index (aDCSI) increased (aIRR: 1.68, 3.78 and 18.8, with yearly changes in aDCSI score: 0.51 to 1.00, 1.01 to 2.00, and >2.00 vs <0.51, respectively; for trend <0.001). Patients with T1DM are at an elevated risk of developing AC; this risk increases with T1DM progression. The T helper type 1/T helper type 2 hypothesis is an overly simplistic explanation for this association. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
Shekhawat, Nakul S; Shtein, Roni M; Blachley, Taylor S; Stein, Joshua D
Antibiotics are seldom necessary to treat acute conjunctivitis. We assessed how frequently patients with newly diagnosed acute conjunctivitis fill prescriptions for topical antibiotics and factors associated with antibiotic prescription fills. Retrospective, observational cohort study. A total of 340 372 enrollees in a large nationwide United States managed care network with newly diagnosed acute conjunctivitis, from 2001 through 2014. We identified all enrollees newly diagnosed with acute conjunctivitis, calculating the proportion filling 1 or more topical antibiotic prescription within 14 days of initial diagnosis. Multivariate logistic regression assessed sociodemographic, medical, and other factors associated with antibiotic prescription fills for acute conjunctivitis. Geographic variation in prescription fills also was studied. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for filling an antibiotic prescription for acute conjunctivitis. Among 340 372 enrollees with acute conjunctivitis, 198 462 (58%) filled ≥1 topical antibiotic prescriptions; 38 774 filled prescriptions for antibiotic-corticosteroid combination products. Compared with whites, blacks (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.86-0.92) and Latinos (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.86) had lower odds of filling antibiotic prescriptions. More affluent and educated enrollees had higher odds of filling antibiotic prescriptions compared with those with lesser affluence and education (P < 0.01 for all). Compared with persons initially diagnosed with acute conjunctivitis by ophthalmologists, enrollees had considerably higher odds of antibiotic prescription fills if first diagnosed by an optometrist (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.21-1.31), urgent care physician (OR, 3.29; 95% CI, 3.17-3.41), internist (OR, 2.79; 95% CI, 2.69-2.90), pediatrician (OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 2.13-2.43), or family practitioner (OR, 2.46; 95% CI, 2.37-2.55). Antibiotic prescription fills did not differ for persons with versus without risk factors for
This paper proposes an explanation for the limited possibilities of realized conjunctions in multitermed coordinations. It argues that conjunction "&" heads a fully articulated phrase (&P), which can iterate &P shells, similar to "V" in Larson's (1988) VP-shell hypothesis. This structure enables a single & to unify any number of conjuncts, and…
Jönsson, Martin L
Hampton (1988) discovered that people are subject to overextension-they categorize some things as falling under a conjunction (e.g., they categorize chess as a sport which is also a game) but not as falling under both of the corresponding conjuncts (e.g., they do not categorize chess as a sport). Although subsequent literature has replicated this effect with a wider range of constructions than those originally used by Hampton, the research so far has been exclusively concerned with various forms of noun compounds. This article generalizes the previous findings to the domain of verb conjunctions. By using a novel paradigm for studying overextension effects, this study demonstrates a very strong overextension effect for conjunctions of gerunds (e.g., walking and smoking). The author discusses the implications of the new findings for available explanations of overextension. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
Speers, Christopher; Seth, Ajai Narain; Patel, Kiran Chhaganbhai; Rakhit, Dhrubo Jyoti; Gillett, Mark James
Retrospectively analyze the cardiac assessment process for elite soccer players, and provide team physicians with a systematic guide to managing longitudinal cardiac risk. Descriptive Epidemiology Study. Cardiac assessments incorporating clinical examination, 12-lead ECG, echocardiography, and health questionnaire. Soccer players at 5 professional clubs in England, the United Kingdom. Data was retrospectively collected, inspected, and analyzed to determine their clinical management and subsequent follow-up. Over 2 years, 265 soccer players, aged 13 to 37 years with 66% of white European ethnicity, were included in the cohort. Eleven percent had "not-normal" assessments, of these assessments, 83% were considered gray screens, falling into three broad categories: structural cardiac features (including valvular abnormalities), functional cardiac features, and electrocardiogram changes. After cardiology consultation, all assessments were grouped into low, enhanced and high-risk categories for ongoing longitudinal risk management. Overall clear-cut pathology was identified in 2%. Cardiovascular assessment is a vital tool in identifying athletes at risk of sudden cardiac death to mitigate their risk through surveillance, intervention, or participation restriction. The decision whether a player is fit to play or not requires a robust risk assessment followed by input from a multidisciplinary team that includes both the team physician and cardiologist. This educational article proposes a clinical management pathway to aid clinicians with this process. Sudden cardiac death is the important medical cause of death during exercise. The team physician should assume responsibility for the management of the longitudinal risk of their players' cardiac assessments in conjunction with sports cardiologist.
Choi, Edmond P H; Wong, Janet Y H; Lo, Herman H M; Wong, Wendy; Chio, Jasmine H M; Fong, Daniel Y T
The association between using smartphone dating applications (apps) and substance use in conjunction with sexual activities was only examined in homosexual men. This association was poorly understood in heterosexual samples. To explore the association between using dating apps and alcohol, and use of recreational drug in conjunction with sexual activities in college students. 666 students from four universities in Hong Kong were recruited in this cross-sectional study in the year 2015. Outcome measures included the use of dating apps, sexual history, and drug and alcohol use. Multivariable logistic regressions were employed. The use of dating apps for more than 1 year was found to be associated with recreational drug use in conjunction with sexual activities (adjusted odds ratio: 7.23). Other risk factors of recreational drug use in conjunction with sexual activities included being bisexual/homosexual male, a smoker, and having one's first sexual intercourse at the age of less than 16 years. The use of dating apps was not a risk factor for alcohol consumption in conjunction with sexual activities. Risk factors for alcohol consumption in conjunction with sexual activities included being older, having monthly income more than HKD5,000, and a smoker. Furthermore, risk factors for alcohol consumption in conjunction with the last sexual activity included currently being in a dating relationship, a smoker, and having sex with a casual partner. Using dating apps is an emerging risk factor of drug misuse. Interventions for practising safe sex and preventing drug use should be targeted at dating app users.
Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: email@example.com; Thompson, Chad M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.
An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A descriptionmore » of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.« less
Carr, V J; Dewis, S A; Lewin, T J
This report describes part of a series of experiments, conducted within the framework of feature integration theory, to determine whether patients with schizophrenia show deficits in preattentive processing. Thirty subjects with a DSM-III-R diagnosis of schizophrenia and 30 age-, gender-, and education-matched normal control subjects completed two computerized experimental tasks, a visual search task assessing the frequency of illusory conjunctions (i.e. false perceptions) under conditions of divided attention (Experiment 3) and a task which examined the effects of perceptual grouping on illusory conjunctions (Experiment 4). We also assessed current symptomatology and its relationship to task performance. Contrary to our hypotheses, schizophrenia subjects did not show higher rates of illusory conjunctions, and the influence of perceptual grouping on the frequency of illusory conjunctions was similar for schizophrenia and control subjects. Nonetheless, specific predictions from feature integration theory about the impact of different target types (Experiment 3) and perceptual groups (Experiment 4) on the likelihood of forming an illusory conjunction were strongly supported, thereby confirming the integrity of the experimental procedures. Overall, these studies revealed no firm evidence that schizophrenia is associated with a preattentive abnormality in visual search using stimuli that differ on the basis of physical characteristics.
Botella, Juan; Suero, Manuel; Durán, Juan I
The reality of illusory conjunctions in perception has been sometimes questioned, arguing that they can be explained by other mechanisms. Most relevant experiments are based on migrations along the space dimension. But the low rate of illusory conjunctions along space can easily hide them among other types of errors. As migrations over time are a more frequent phenomenon, illusory conjunctions can be disentangled from other errors. We report an experiment in which series of colored letters were presented in several spatial locations, allowing for migrations over both space and time. The distribution of frequencies were fit by several multinomial tree models based on alternative hypothesis about illusory conjunctions and the potential sources of free-floating features. The best-fit model acknowledges that most illusory conjunctions are migrations in the time domain. Migrations in space are probably present, but the rate is very low. Other conjunction errors, as those produced by guessing or miscategorizations of the to-be-reported feature, are also present in the experiment. The main conclusion is that illusory conjunctions do exist.
Taylor, M J; Chevalier, H; Lobaugh, N J
Stimuli that are discriminated by a conjunction of features can show more rapid early processing in adults. To determine how this facilitation effect develops, the processing of visual features and their conjunction was examined in 7-12-year-old children. The children completed a series of tasks in which they made a target-non-target judgement as a function of shape only, colour only or shape and colour features, while event-related potentials were recorded. To assess early stages of feature processing the posteriorly distributed P1 and N1 were analysed. Attentional effects were seen for both components. P1 had a shorter latency and P1 and N1 had larger amplitudes to targets than non-targets. Task effects were driven by the conjunction task. P1 amplitude was largest, while N1 amplitude was smallest for the conjunction targets. In contrast to larger left-sided N1 in adults, N1 had a symmetrical distribution in the children. N1 latency was shortest for the conjunction targets in the 9-10-year olds and 11-12-year olds, demonstrating facilitation in children, but which continued to develop over the pre-teen years. These data underline the sensitivity of early stages of processing to both top-down modulations and the parallel binding of non-spatial features in young children. Furthermore, facilitation effects, increased speed of processing when features need to be conjoined, mature in mid-childhood, arguing against a hierarchical model of visual processing, and supporting a rapid, integrated facilitative model.
Jönsson, Martin L.
Hampton (1988) discovered that people are subject to "overextension"--they categorize some things as falling under a conjunction (e.g., they categorize chess as a "sport which is also a game") but not as falling under both of the corresponding conjuncts (e.g., they do not categorize chess as a "sport"). Although…
Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.
Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.
Sides, Ashley; Osherson, Daniel; Bonini, Nicolao; Viale, Riccardo
Attributing higher "probability" to a sentence of form p-and-q, relative to p, is a reasoning fallacy only if (1) the word probability carries its modern, technical meaning and (2) the sentence p is interpreted as a conjunct of the conjunction p-and-q. Legitimate doubts arise about both conditions in classic demonstrations of the conjunction fallacy. We used betting paradigms and unambiguously conjunctive statements to reduce these sources of ambiguity about conjunctive reasoning. Despite the precautions, conjunction fallacies were as frequent under betting instructions as under standard probability instructions.
Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew
Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698
Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A
WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional
2004-01-0128 September 2004 For the past several weeks, Mars was on the other side of the Sun relative to Earth. During this period, known as solar conjunction, radio communication with spacecraft orbiting and roving on Mars was limited. As is always done during solar conjunction, on 7 September 2004, the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) was turned off. On Saturday, 25 September 2004, the MOC team gathered at Malin Space Science Systems to command the instrument to turn back on again. After a successful turn-on, MOC acquired its first narrow angle camera image, shown here, on orbit 24808 (24,808th orbit since the start of the Mapping phase of the MGS mission in March 1999). The 25 September image shows a portion of Nirgal Vallis, an ancient valley system in the Mare Erythraeum region of Mars. The valley floor is covered by large, ripple-like bedforms created by wind. This early southern winter image is located near 27.4oS, 42.9oW, and covers an area approximately 3 km (1.9 mi) across. Sunlight illuminates the scene from the upper left. This was the 4th solar conjunction period that MGS and MOC have been through since the spacecraft reached the red planet in September 1997. The four solar conjunction periods, where MOC was turned off, were: First solar conjunction: 29 April - 1 June 1998 Second solar conjunction: 22 June - 12 July 2000 Third solar conjunction: 1 August - 18 August 2002 Fourth solar conjunction: 7 September - 25 September 2004. In late October, MGS MOC will mark the start of its fourth Mars year since the beginning of the Mapping Phase of the mission in March 1999. MGS and MOC have already been orbiting Mars for more than 4 Mars years, including the pre-Mapping aerobrake and science phasing orbit insertion periods.
component on the critical path is relatively more important in a risk-informed environment. Significance of multi-hazard risk is also illustrated for uncorrelated hazards of earthquakes and high winds which may result in competing design objectives. It is also illustrated that the number of computationally intensive nonlinear simulations needed in performance-based risk assessment for external hazards can be significantly reduced by using the power of Bayesian updating in conjunction with the concept of equivalent limit-state.
Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J
Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions
Charalambous, Charalambos; Koulori, Agoritsa; Vasilopoulos, Aristidis; Roupa, Zoe
Introduction Prevention is the ideal strategy to tackle the problem of pressure ulcers. Pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are one of the most pivotal measures applied to tackle the problem, much criticisms has been developed regarding the validity and reliability of these scales. Objective To investigate the validity and reliability of the Waterlow pressure ulcer risk assessment scale. Method The methodology used is a narrative literature review, the bibliography was reviewed through Cinahl, Pubmed, EBSCO, Medline and Google scholar, 26 scientific articles where identified. The articles where chosen due to their direct correlation with the objective under study and their scientific relevance. Results The construct and face validity of the Waterlow appears adequate, but with regards to content validity changes in the category age and gender can be beneficial. The concurrent validity cannot be assessed. The predictive validity of the Waterlow is characterized by high specificity and low sensitivity. The inter-rater reliability has been demonstrated to be inadequate, this may be due to lack of clear definitions within the categories and differentiating level of knowledge between the users. Conclusion Due to the limitations presented regarding the validity and reliability of the Waterlow pressure ulcer risk assessment scale, the scale should be used in conjunction with clinical assessment to provide optimum results. PMID:29736104
Charalambous, Charalambos; Koulori, Agoritsa; Vasilopoulos, Aristidis; Roupa, Zoe
Prevention is the ideal strategy to tackle the problem of pressure ulcers. Pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are one of the most pivotal measures applied to tackle the problem, much criticisms has been developed regarding the validity and reliability of these scales. To investigate the validity and reliability of the Waterlow pressure ulcer risk assessment scale. The methodology used is a narrative literature review, the bibliography was reviewed through Cinahl, Pubmed, EBSCO, Medline and Google scholar, 26 scientific articles where identified. The articles where chosen due to their direct correlation with the objective under study and their scientific relevance. The construct and face validity of the Waterlow appears adequate, but with regards to content validity changes in the category age and gender can be beneficial. The concurrent validity cannot be assessed. The predictive validity of the Waterlow is characterized by high specificity and low sensitivity. The inter-rater reliability has been demonstrated to be inadequate, this may be due to lack of clear definitions within the categories and differentiating level of knowledge between the users. Due to the limitations presented regarding the validity and reliability of the Waterlow pressure ulcer risk assessment scale, the scale should be used in conjunction with clinical assessment to provide optimum results.
Vernal conjunctivitis often occurs in people with a strong family history of allergies. These may include allergic rhinitis , asthma , and eczema. It is most common in young males, and most often occurs during the spring and ...
McKim, Vicky L
In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.
Nippold, Marilyn A.; And Others
Adolescents and young adults (n=120) were assessed on their use and understanding of concordant and discordant adverbial conjuncts. Results demonstrated an increasing ability with age to use and understand these words in the written mode, with mastery in usage trailing understanding. Concordant and discordant conjuncts were equally difficult.…
... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...
Sparrow, Penny A. C.
GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.
Howdeshell, Kembra L; Hotchkiss, Andrew K; Gray, L Earl
Toxicological studies of defined chemical mixtures assist human health risk assessment by establishing how chemicals interact with one another to induce an effect. This paper reviews how antiandrogenic chemical mixtures can alter reproductive tract development in rats with a focus on the reproductive toxicant phthalates. The reviewed studies compare observed mixture data to mathematical mixture model predictions based on dose addition or response addition to determine how the individual chemicals in a mixture interact (e.g., additive, greater, or less than additive). Phthalate mixtures were observed to act in a dose additive manner based on the relative potency of the individual phthalates to suppress fetal testosterone production. Similar dose additive effects have been reported for mixtures of phthalates with antiandrogenic pesticides of differing mechanisms of action. Overall, data from these phthalate experiments in rats can be used in conjunction with human biomonitoring data to determine individual hazard indices, and recent cumulative risk assessments in humans indicate an excess risk to antiandrogenic chemical mixtures that include phthalates only or phthalates in combination with other antiandrogenic chemicals. Published by Elsevier GmbH.
Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin
Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions
Schedule risk assessments determine the likelihood of finishing on time. Each task in a schedule has a varying degree of probability of being finished on time. A schedule risk assessment quantifies these probabilities by assigning values to each task. This viewgraph presentation contains a flow chart for conducting a schedule risk assessment, and profiles applicable several methods of data analysis.
Esterman, Michael; Prinzmetal, William; Robertson, Lynn
Illusory conjunctions (ICs) provide evidence for a binding problem that must be resolved in vision. Objects that are perceptually grouped are more likely to have their features erroneously conjoined. We examined whether semantic grouping, determined by category membership (letter vs. number), also influences illusory conjunction rates. Participants were instructed to detect an "L" or a "7" among briefly presented character strings and to report its color. Despite high shape discrimination accuracy, participants often made color conjunction errors, reporting instead the color of a distractor character, "O". This distractor could be ambiguously interpreted as a letter or a number. The status of the "O" was determined by other noncolored flanker characters, which were either letters or numbers. When both the target and flankers were of the same category, participants made more ICs than when the target and flankers were of different categories. This finding demonstrates that alphanumeric categorization can precede and subsequently influence binding.
To assess the efficacy of motivational interviewing in conjuction with a caries risk assessment (MICRA) programme to improve the dental health status of preschool children. A randomised controlled trial was conducted among 214 parents or caregivers and their children at Health Centre 54, Bangkok, Thailand, from September 2015 to February 2016. The participants were randomised to the intervention and the control groups (107 participants per group). At baseline, the intervention group received a caries risk assessment, individual counseling by using motivational interviewing, and oral hygiene instruction. The intervention group received reinforcement education and individual counseling by motivational interviewing every 3 months. The control group received a routine programme. Participants were assessed at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months for plaque index and caries. The data were analysed by using descriptive statistics, the chi-squared test, Fisher's exact test, t-test, repeated-measures ANOVA, and negative binomial distribution. After the 6-month follow-up, participants in the intervention group had a significantly lower plaque index, non-cavitated plus cavitated carious lesions, and cavitated carious lesions when compared to the control group. The intervention group had a lower caries incidence, non-cavitated plus cavitated carious lesions (1.81 times) and cavitated carious lesions (2.04 times) than the control group. The combination of motivational interviewing and caries risk assessment in one programme decreased early childhood caries in preschool children. It is not known whether the effects are due to the motivational interviewing, the caries risk assessment, or the combination of both.
Barlow, P.M.; Ahlfeld, D.P.; Dickerman, D.C.
Conjunctive-management models that couple numerical simulation with linear optimization were developed to evaluate trade-offs between groundwater withdrawals and streamflow depletions for alluvial-valley stream-aquifer systems representative of those of the northeastern United States. A conjunctive-management model developed for a hypothetical stream-aquifer system was used to assess the effect of interannual hydrologic variability on minimum monthly streamflow requirements. The conjunctive-management model was applied to the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt stream-aquifer system of central Rhode Island. Results show that it is possible to increase the amount of current withdrawal from the aquifer by as much as 50% by modifying current withdrawal schedules, modifying the number and configuration of wells in the supply-well network, or allowing increased streamflow depletion in the Annaquatucket and Pettaquamscutt rivers. Alternatively, it is possible to reduce current rates of streamflow depletion in the Hunt River by as much as 35% during the summer, but such reductions would result increases in groundwater withdrawals.
Tsal, Y; Meiran, N; Lavie, N
In five experiments, we investigated the effects of attention on illusory conjunctions formed between features of unrelated objects. The first three experiments used a weak manipulation of attention and found that illusory conjunctions formed either among features receiving high attentional priority or among features receiving low attentional priority were not more frequent than were conjunctions formed between mixed features of different attentional priority. The last two experiments used a strong manipulation of attention and failed to reveal any evidence of true illusory conjunctions. The results are inconsistent with the feature-integration theory, which predicts that when attention is focused on a subset of items, illusory conjunctions ought to occur within and outside of the attended subset, but not between the attended and unattended items.
Nordfang, Maria; Wolfe, Jeremy M
A key tenet of Feature Integration Theory and related theories such as Guided Search (GS) is that the binding of basic features requires attention. This would seem to predict that conjunctions of features of objects that have not been attended should not influence search. However, Found (1998) reported that an irrelevant feature (size) improved the efficiency of search for a color × orientation conjunction if it was correlated with the other two features across the display compared to the case where size was not correlated with color and orientation features. We examine this issue with somewhat different stimuli. We use triple conjunctions of color, orientation and shape (e.g. search for a red, vertical, oval-shaped item). This allows us to manipulate the number of features that each distractor shares with the target (Sharing) and it allows us to vary the total number of distractor types (and, thus, the number of groups of identical items; Grouping). We find these triple conjunction searches are generally very efficient – producing very shallow reaction time (RT) × set size slopes, consistent with strong guidance by basic features. Nevertheless, both of these variables, Sharing and Grouping modulate performance. These influences are not predicted by previous accounts of GS. However, both can be accommodated in a GS framework. Alternatively, it is possible, if not necessary, to see these effects as evidence for “preattentive binding” of conjunctions. PMID:25005070
Nordfang, Maria; Wolfe, Jeremy M
A key tenet of feature integration theory and of related theories such as guided search (GS) is that the binding of basic features requires attention. This would seem to predict that conjunctions of features of objects that have not been attended should not influence search. However, Found (1998) reported that an irrelevant feature (size) improved the efficiency of search for a Color × Orientation conjunction if it was correlated with the other two features across the display, as compared to the case in which size was not correlated with color and orientation features. We examined this issue with somewhat different stimuli. We used triple conjunctions of color, orientation, and shape (e.g., search for a red, vertical, oval-shaped item). This allowed us to manipulate the number of features that each distractor shared with the target (sharing) and it allowed us to vary the total number of distractor types (and, thus, the number of groups of identical items: grouping). We found that these triple conjunction searches were generally very efficient--producing very shallow Reaction Time × Set Size slopes, consistent with strong guidance by basic features. Nevertheless, both of the variables, sharing and grouping, modulated performance. These influences were not predicted by previous accounts of GS; however, both can be accommodated in a GS framework. Alternatively, it is possible, though not necessary, to see these effects as evidence for "preattentive binding" of conjunctions.
Hutter, Russell R C; Crisp, Richard J
In three experiments, the authors investigated the impression formation process resulting from the perception of familiar or unfamiliar social category combinations. In Experiment 1, participants were asked to generate attributes associated with either a familiar or unfamiliar social category conjunction. Compared to familiar combinations, the authors found that when the conjunction was unfamiliar, participants formed their impression less from the individual constituent categories and relatively more from novel emergent attributes. In Experiment 2, the authors replicated this effect using alternative experimental materials. In Experiment 3, the effect generalized to additional (orthogonally combined) gender and occupation categories. The implications of these findings for understanding the processes involved in the conjunction of social categories, and the formation of new stereotypes, are discussed.
Monti, Gianna S; Filzmoser, Peter; Deutsch, Roland C
The guidelines for setting environmental quality standards are increasingly based on probabilistic risk assessment due to a growing general awareness of the need for probabilistic procedures. One of the commonly used tools in probabilistic risk assessment is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which represents the proportion of species affected belonging to a biological assemblage as a function of exposure to a specific toxicant. Our focus is on the inverse use of the SSD curve with the aim of estimating the concentration, HCp, of a toxic compound that is hazardous to p% of the biological community under study. Toward this end, we propose the use of robust statistical methods in order to take into account the presence of outliers or apparent skew in the data, which may occur without any ecological basis. A robust approach exploits the full neighborhood of a parametric model, enabling the analyst to account for the typical real-world deviations from ideal models. We examine two classic HCp estimation approaches and consider robust versions of these estimators. In addition, we also use data transformations in conjunction with robust estimation methods in case of heteroscedasticity. Different scenarios using real data sets as well as simulated data are presented in order to illustrate and compare the proposed approaches. These scenarios illustrate that the use of robust estimation methods enhances HCp estimation. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.
Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.
Mimura, Tatsuya; Yamagami, Satoru; Kamei, Yuko; Goto, Mari; Matsubara, Masao
The level of specific class E immunoglobulins (IgE) in tear fluid is a useful diagnostic indicator for allergic conjunctivitis, but it is still unclear whether the measurement of tear fluid IgE is helpful for assessing the severity of allergic conjunctivitis. In this study, we evaluated the relation between tear fluid levels of specific IgE and features of allergic conjunctivitis. A prospective, nonrandomized, cross-sectional study was conducted in patients with allergic conjunctivitis (n = 55, allergic group) and age- and sex-matched healthy control subjects (n = 50, control group). Levels of specific IgE for cedar pollen, cat epithelium/dander and Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus were measured in tear fluid with the Immfast Check J1®. A severity score (0, 1, 2 or 3) was assigned for various changes of the palpebral and bulbar conjunctiva, as well as for limbal and corneal lesions. The levels of specific IgE for both cedar pollen, and D. pteronyssinus were significantly higher in the allergic group compared with the control group (p < 0.0001), while the level of specific IgE for cat epithelium/dander showed no significant difference between the two groups (p = 0.0777). When IgE levels were divided into four classes, the classes for both D. Pteronyssinus and cat epithelium/dander IgE were correlated with four features of allergic conjunctivitis. On the other hand, no correlation was found between the class of cedar pollen IgE and any of the features of allergic conjunctivitis. This study demonstrated that measurement of specific IgE in tear fluid may be useful for determining the severity of allergic conjunctivitis induced by indoor allergens. Although measurement of IgE in tear fluid is only a supplemental tool for evaluating the clinical activity of allergic conjunctivitis, the test can be useful for detecting specific IgE antibodies responsible for this condition.
This spring, as the school year starts to wind down, there will be many opportunities for students to observe bright planets and to wrap up the year with some great conjunctions and close occultation with the Moon, planets, bright stars, and star clusters). These observations can be coordinated with student observations of the Moon's phase cycle…
Rounce, David R.; McKinney, Daene C.; Lala, Jonathan M.; Byers, Alton C.; Watson, C. Scott
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure due to their potential to rapidly unleash stored lake water. The most common triggers of these GLOFs are mass movement entering the lake and/or the self-destruction of the terminal moraine due to hydrostatic pressures or a buried ice core. This study initially uses previous qualitative and quantitative assessments to understand the hazards associated with eight glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya that are widely considered to be highly dangerous. The previous assessments yield conflicting classifications with respect to each glacial lake, which spurred the development of a new holistic, reproducible, and objective approach based solely on remotely sensed data. This remote hazard assessment analyzes mass movement entering the lake, the stability of the moraine, and lake growth in conjunction with a geometric GLOF to determine the downstream impacts such that the present and future risk associated with each glacial lake may be quantified. The new approach is developed within a hazard, risk, and management action framework with the aim that this remote assessment may guide future field campaigns, modeling efforts, and ultimately risk-mitigation strategies. The remote assessment was found to provide valuable information regarding the hazards faced by each glacial lake and results were discussed within the context of the current state of knowledge to help guide future efforts.
Hampton, James A
I consider the general problem of category conjunctions in the light of Pothos & Busemeyer (P&B)'s quantum probability (QP) account of the conjunction fallacy. I argue that their account as presented cannot capture the "guppy effect" - the case in which a class is a better member of a conjunction A^B than it is of either A or B alone.
Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L
The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.
EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:
Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson
Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less
How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.
Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley
Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of
Fisk, John E; Slattery, Rachel
While adults are known to exhibit biases when making conjunctive probability judgments, little is known about childhood competencies in this area. Participants (aged between four and five years, eight and ten years, and a group of young adults) attempted to select the more likely of two events, a single event, and a conjunctive event containing, as one of its components, the single event. The problems were such that the objective probabilities of the component events were potentially available. Children in both age groups were generally successful when the single event was likely. However, when it was unlikely, a majority of children rejected it, choosing the conjunctive event instead, thereby committing the conjunction fallacy. A substantial minority of adults also committed the fallacy under equivalent conditions. It is concluded that under certain conditions children are capable of normative conjunctive judgments but that the mechanisms underpinning this capacity remain to be fully understood.
With its long duration and high gain antenna (HGA) feed thermal constraint; the NASA Solar-TErestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) solar conjunction mission phase is quite unique to deep space operations. Originally designed for a two year heliocentric orbit mission to primarily study coronal mass ejection propagation, after 8 years of continuous science data collection, the twin STEREO observatories entered the solar conjunction mission phase, for which they were not designed. Nine months before entering conjunction, an unforeseen thermal constraint threatened to stop daily communications and science data collection for 15months. With a 3.5 month long communication blackout from the superior solar conjunction, without ground commands, each observatory will reset every 3 days, resulting in 35 system resets at an Earth range of 2 AU. As the observatories will be conjoined for the first time in 8 years, a unique opportunity for calibrating the same instruments on identical spacecraft will occur. As each observatory has lost redundancy, and with only a limited fidelity hardware simulator, how can the new observatory configuration be adequately and safely tested on each spacecraft? Without ground commands, how would a 3-axis stabilized spacecraft safely manage the ever accumulating system momentum without using propellant for thrusters? Could science data still be collected for the duration of the solar conjunction mission phase? Would the observatories survive? In its second extended mission, operational resources were limited at best. This paper discusses the solutions to the STEREO superior solar conjunction operational challenges, science data impact, testing, mission operations, results, and lessons learned while implementing.
Kelso, T. S.
In an effort to mitigate the risks associated with satellite close approaches in the geostationary belt, several satellite operators came together in early 2008 to establish what is now known as the GEO Data Center. The GEO Data Center initially provided a framework for satellite operators to share orbital data for their fleets of satellites to be used to perform conjunction analysis and provide automated notification of close approaches via the SOCRATES-GEO system. After two years of operations, the GEO Data Center now has 14 members providing data for 186 satellites. Since the Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 collision, a parallel system was set up with a LEO Data Center, which already has seven members providing data for 101 satellites. These data centers have already shown the significant benefit of sharing orbital data, particularly in terms of reducing positional uncertainty and, thereby, the number of false alarms. This paper will address the current framework for these efforts, highlighting how a service-oriented architecture is used to support orbital operations and increase efficiency of analysis and resolution of risk-mitigation tasks. It will show how the interactive work flow is used to quickly assess new maneuvers to determine whether they have successfully reduced the chances of a particular close approach without causing other close approaches elsewhere. It will also show how independent space situational awareness organizations can be employed to provide a more complete picture of the threat from nonparticipating satellites and the debris population.
Su, Yuling; Lai, Yunpeng; Huang, Wanyi; Tan, Wei; Qu, Zhe; Ding, Yulong
Although some studies showed that training can improve the ability of cross-dimension conjunction search, less is known about the underlying mechanism. Specifically, it remains unclear whether training of visual conjunction search can successfully bind different features of separated dimensions into a new function unit at early stages of visual processing. In the present study, we utilized stimulus specificity and generalization to provide a new approach to investigate the mechanisms underlying perceptual learning (PL) in visual conjunction search. Five experiments consistently showed that after 40 to 50 min of training of color-shape/orientation conjunction search, the ability to search for a certain conjunction target improved significantly and the learning effects did not transfer to a new target that differed from the trained target in both color and shape/orientation features. However, the learning effects were not strictly specific. In color-shape conjunction search, although the learning effect could not transfer to a same-shape different-color target, it almost completely transferred to a same-color different-shape target. In color-orientation conjunction search, the learning effect partly transferred to a new target that shared same color or same orientation with the trained target. Moreover, the sum of transfer effects for the same color target and the same orientation target in color-orientation conjunction search was algebraically equivalent to the learning effect for trained target, showing an additive transfer effect. The different transfer patterns in color-shape and color-orientation conjunction search learning might reflect the different complexity and discriminability between feature dimensions. These results suggested a feature-based attention enhancement mechanism rather than a unitization mechanism underlying the short-term PL of color-shape/orientation conjunction search.
Jefferis, Joanna; Perera, Rafael; Everitt, Hazel; van Weert, Henk; Rietveld, Remco; Glasziou, Paul; Rose, Peter
Background Acute infective conjunctivitis is a common problem in primary care, traditionally managed with topical antibiotics. A number of clinical trials have questioned the benefit of topical antibiotics for patients with acute infective conjunctivitis Aim To determine the benefit of antibiotics for the treatment of acute infective conjunctivitis in primary care and which subgroups benefit most Design An individual patient data meta-analysis Method Relevant trials were identified and individual patient data gathered for meta-analysis and subgroup analysis Results Three eligible trials were identified. Individual patient data were available from all primary care trials and data were available for analysis in 622 patients. Eighty per cent (246/308) of patients who received antibiotics and 74% (233/314) of controls were cured at day 7. There was a significant benefit of antibiotics versus control for cure at seven days in all cases combined (risk difference 0.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.01 to 0.14). Subgroups that showed a significant benefit from antibiotics were patients with purulent discharge (risk difference 0.09, 95% CI = 0.01 to 0.17) and patients with mild severity of red eye (risk difference 0.10, 95% CI = 0.02 to 0.18), while the type of control used (placebo drops versus nothing) showed a statistically significant interaction (P=0.03) Conclusion Acute conjunctivitis seen in primary care can be thought of as a self-limiting condition, with most patients getting better regardless of antibiotic therapy. Patients with purulent discharge or a mild severity of red eye may have a small benefit from antibiotics. Prescribing practices need to be updated, taking into account these results PMID:22152728
Armentia, Alicia; Sanchís, Eugenia; Montero, Javier A
Conventional diagnostic tests in allergy are insufficient to clarify the cause of vernal conjunctivitis. Component-resolved diagnostic (CRD) by microarray allergen assay may be useful in detecting allergens that might be involved in the inflammatory process. In a recent trial in patients suffered from eosinophilic esophagitis, after 2 years of the CRD-guided exclusion diet and specific immunotherapy, significant clinical improvement was observed, and 68% of patients were discharged (cure based on negative biopsy, no symptoms, and no medication intake). Our new objective was to evaluate IgE-mediated hypersensitivity by CRD in tears and serum from patients with vernal conjunctivitis and treat patients with identified triggering allergens by specific immunotherapy. Twenty-five patients with vernal conjunctivitis were evaluated. The identified triggering allergens were n Lol p 1 (11 cases), n Cyn d 1 (eight cases), group 4 and 6 grasses (six cases) and group 5 of grasses (five cases). Prick test and pollen IgE were positive in one case. Clinical improvement was observed in 13/25 vernal conjunctivitis patients after 1-year specific immunotherapy. CRD seems to be a more sensitive diagnostic tool compared with prick test and IgE detection. Specific CRD-led immunotherapy may achieve clinical improvements in vernal conjunctivitis patients.
Hemenway, B.; Welser, B.; Baiocchi, D.
Coordination of operations between satellite operators is becoming increasingly important to prevent collisions. Unfortunately, this coordination is often handicapped by a lack of trust. Coordination and cooperation between satellite operators can take many forms, however, one specific area where cooperation between operators would yield significant benefits is in the computation of conjunction analyses. Passively collected orbital are of generally of too low fidelity to be of use in conjunction analyses. Each operator, however, maintains high fidelity data about their own satellites. These high fidelity data are significantly more valuable in calculating conjunction analyses than the lower-fidelity data. If operators were to share their high fidelity data overall space situational awareness could be improved. At present, many operators do not share data and as a consequence space situational awareness suffers. Restrictive data sharing policies are primarily motivated by privacy concerns on the part of the satellite operators, as each operator is reluctant or unwilling to share data that might compromise its political or commercial interests. In order to perform the necessary conjunction analyses while still maintaining the privacy of their own data, a few operators have entered data sharing agreements. These operators provide their private data to a trusted outside party, who then performs the conjunction analyses and reports the results to the operators. These types of agreements are not an ideal solution as they require a degree of trust between the parties, and the cost of employing the trusted party can be large. In this work, we present and analyze cryptographic tools that would allow satellite operators to securely calculate conjunction analyses without the help of a trusted outside party, while provably maintaining the privacy of their own orbital information. For example, recent advances in cryptographic protocols, specifically in the area of secure
Revold, Tobias; Abayneh, Takele; Brun-Hansen, Hege; Kleppe, Signe L; Ropstad, Ernst-Otto; Hellings, Robert A; Sørum, Henning
Listeria monocytogenes has been reported to cause various infectious diseases in both humans and animals. More rarely, ocular infections have been reported. To our knowledge, only two cases of Listeria keratitis have been described in horses. We report kerato-conjunctivitis in four Norwegian horses associated with L. monocytogenes. Clinically, all cases were presented with recurrent unilateral kerato-conjunctivitis. L. monocytogenes bacteria were isolated from swab samples from all cases, and cytology carried out in 3 cases was indicative of L. monocytogenes infection. The present report describes the first known cases in which L. monocytogenes has been isolated from keratitic lesions in horses in Norway. A potential risk factor may be feeding of silage or haylage, but other sources of infection cannot be ruled out. The phenotypic features including antimicrobial susceptibility and serotype of the isolates are described. Laboratory detection of L. monocytogenes demands extra caution since only low numbers of bacteria were detected in the eye-swabs, probably due to the low volume of sample material and the intracellular niche of the bacterium. A general poor response to treatment in all these cases indicates that clinicians should pay extra attention to intensity and duration of treatment if L. monocytogenes is identified in connection with equine kerato-conjunctivitis.
Iliadis, L. S.; Spartalis, S. I.
This paper describes the construction of three Artificial Neural Networks with fuzzy input and output, imitating the performance of fuzzy algebra conjunction operators. More specifically, it is applied over the results of a previous research effort that used T-Norms in order to produce a characteristic torrential risk index that unified the partial risk indices for the area of Xanthi. Each one of the three networks substitutes a T-Norm and consequently they can be used as equivalent operators. This means that ANN performing Fuzzy Algebra operations can be designed and developed.
This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...
Fehr, M.; Navarro, V.; Martin, L.; Fletcher, E.
Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is defined as the comprehensive knowledge, understanding and maintained awareness of the population of space objects, the space environment and existing threats and risks. As ESA's SSA Conjunction Prediction Service (CPS) requires the repetitive application of a processing algorithm against a data set of man-made space objects, it is crucial to exploit the highly parallelizable nature of this problem. Currently the CPS system makes use of OpenMP for parallelization purposes using CPU threads, but only a GPU with its hundreds of cores can fully benefit from such high levels of parallelism. This paper presents the adaptation of several core algorithms of the CPS for general-purpose computing on graphics processing units (GPGPU) using NVIDIAs Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA).
Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.
Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.
Hsieh, Vivian Chia-Rong; Liu, Chin-Chen; Hsiao, Yu-Chen; Wu, Trong-Neng
Despite links between maternal and child health status, evidence on the association between gum infection in pregnant mothers and childhood allergies is scarce. We aim to evaluate the risk of developing allergy in children born to periodontal mothers in a nationwide study. We conducted a 9-year population-based, retrospective cohort study using Taiwan's National Health Insurance database. A study cohort of 42,217 newborns born to mothers with periodontal disease during pregnancy was identified in 2001 and matched with 42,334 babies born to mothers without any infection (control) by mother's age at delivery and baby sex. With a follow-up period from 2001 to 2010, we observed the incidence of allergic rhinitis (AR), allergic conjunctivitis (AC), and eczema in these children. Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed with premature deaths as competing risk for the estimation of allergic disease risks. Nine-year cumulative incidences were the highest among children born to periodontal mothers; they reached 46.8%, 24.2%, and 40.4% (vs. 39.5%, 18.3% and 34.8% in control) for AR, AC, and eczema, respectively. Our results showed moderately increased risks for the allergies in children born to periodontal mothers relative to their matched non-inflammatory control (adjusted HRs: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.15-1.20; 1.27, 1.24-1.31; 1.14, 1.12-1.17, respectively). Because the impact of food consumption and living environment cannot be considered using insurance data, we attempted to control it by adjusting for parental income and mother's residential area. Overall cumulative incidence and risks of children born to periodontal mothers for AR, AC, and eczema are significantly higher than those born to non-inflammatory mothers. Gum infection in women during pregnancy is an independent risk factor for allergic diseases in children, thus its intergenerational consequences should be considered in gestational care.
Lloyd, Marianne E.
Four experiments were conducted to test whether conjunction errors were reduced after pictorial encoding and whether the semantic overlap between study and conjunction items would impact error rates. Across 4 experiments, compound words studied with a single-picture had lower conjunction error rates during a recognition test than those words…
Palmieri, Luigi; Rielli, Rita; Demattè, Luca; Donfrancesco, Chiara; La Terza, Giampaolo; De Sanctis Caiola, Patrizia; Dima, Francesco; Lo Noce, Cinzia; Giannelli, Anna Maria; Brignoli, Ovidio; Cuffari, Alfredo; De Rosa, Marisa; Addis, Antonio; Laurendi, Giovanna; Giampaoli, Simona
The Italian National Prevention plan includes 10-year cardiovascular risk (CR) assessment of the Italian general population aged 35-69 years using the CUORE Project risk score. A national training program for general practitioners (GPs) was launched by the Ministry of Health in 2003. GPs were encouraged to collect data on risk factors and risk assessment and to contribute to the CUORE Project Cardiovascular Risk Observatory (CRO). The aim of this analysis is to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of risk assessment in primary care. The cuore.exe software, free of charge for GPs and easily downloadable from the CUORE Project web site (www.cuore.iss.it), is the frame for the GP data collection. The CRO provides a platform to analyze data collected on risk assessment and risk factors, and compare results at regional and national level in order to support health policy makers in their decision process. From January 2007 to April 2009, 2858 GPs have downloaded the cuore.exe software; 102,113 risk assessments were sent to the CRO based on risk factors profile of 87,556 persons (3617 persons had more than 1 risk assessment). Mean level of CR was 3.1% in women and 8.4% in men; 30% of men and 65% of women were at low risk (CR < 3%), 9% of men and 0.4% of women were found at high risk (CR > or = 20%). Among those with at least 2 risk assessments, 8% shifted to a lower class of risk after 1 year. Mean level of systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased by about 1% in 1 year; total cholesterol more than 2%, and prevalence of smokers decreased by about 3% in the second risk assessment. These data demonstrate that risk assessment can be included as a first step of prevention in primary care. The CUORE Project individual score is expected to become an important tool for GPs to assess their patients' CR, to promote primary prevention, and to focus attention to healthy lifestyle adoption.
de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.
Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the
This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.
Hanson, R.T.; Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Faunt, C.C.; Cayan, D.; Schmid, W.
Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater-surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.
Glória, Yasmin Alves Leão; Hanauer, Letícia Pessota; Wiethan, Fernanda Marafiga; Nóro, Letícia Arruda; Mota, Helena Bolli
To investigate the use of conjunctions in the spontaneous speech of three years old children with typical language development, who live in Santa Maria - RS. 45 children, aged 3:0;0 - 3:11;29 (years:months;days) from the database of the Center for the Study of Language and Speech (CELF) participated of this study. The spontaneous speech of each child was transcribed and followed by analysis of the samples to identify the types of conjunctions for each age group. The samples were statistically analyzed using the R software that allowed the evaluation of the number and type of conjunctions used in each age group by comparing them with each other. The data indicated that the higher the age of the child, the greater the number of types of conjunctions used by them. The comparison between age groups showed significant differences when comparing the average number of conjunctions per age group, as well as for additive conjunctions and subordinating conjunctions. At age of three the children begin to develop the grammatical use of conjunctions, early appearing additive, adversative and explanatory coordinating conjunctions, and at 3:6 they are able to use the most complex conjunctions, as subordinating conjunctions.
Nakamura, K; Brainerd, C J
It has recently been found that episodic memory displays analogues of the well-known disjunction and conjunction fallacies of probability judgement. The aim of the present research was, for the first time, to study these memory fallacies together under the same conditions, and test theoretical predictions about the reasons for each. The focus was on predictions about the influence of semantic gist, target versus context recollection, and proactive versus retroactive interference. Disjunction and conjunction fallacies increased in conditions in which subjects were able to form semantic connections among list words. In addition, disjunction fallacies were increased by manipulations that minimised proactive interference, whereas conjunction fallacies were increased by manipulations that minimised retroactive interference. That pattern suggests that disjunction fallacies are more dependent on target recollection, whereas conjunction fallacies are more dependent on context recollection.
Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.
Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.
The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.
Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W
Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.
Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.
Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose
Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus
This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.
Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad
The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.
Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi
With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.
Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L
Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.
Moury, Monique; Newman, Lauri K.; Laporte, Francois
This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.
Baptista, Pedro Viana
Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed.
Febbo, E.J.; Arnold, W.R.; Biddinger, G.R.
As part of the Regional Monitoring Program administered by the San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI), sediment samples were collected at 20 stations in San Francisco Bay and analyzed to determine concentrations of 43 PAHs. These data were obtained from SFEI and used to calculate the potential risk to aquatic organisms using probabilistic modeling and Monte Carlo statistical procedures. Sediment chemistry data were used in conjunction with a sediment equilibrium model, a bioconcentration model, biota-sediment accumulation factors, and critical body burden effects concentrations to assess potential risk to bivalves. Bivalves were the chosen receptors because they lack a well-developed enzymatic systemmore » for metabolizing PAHs. Thus, they more readily accumulate PAHs and represent a species at greater risk than other taxa, such as fish and crustaceans. PAHs considered in this study span a broad range of octanol-water partition coefficients. Results indicate that risk of non-polar narcotic effects from PAHs was low in the Northern Bay Area, but higher in the South Bay near the more urbanized sections of the drainage basin.« less
Baptista, Pedro Viana
Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed. PMID:18360538
Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin
Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.
Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin
Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217
Schwalbe, Craig S.
The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…
Ocular allergy represents one of the most common conditions encountered by allergists and ophthalmologists. Allergic conjunctivitis is often underdiagnosed and consequently undertreated. Basic and clinical research has provided a better understanding of the cells, mediators, and immunologic events, which occur in ocular allergy. New pharmacological agents have improved the efficacy and safety of ocular allergy treatment. An understanding of the immunologic mechanisms, clinical features, differential diagnosis, and treatment of ocular allergy may be useful to all specialists who deal with these patients. The purpose of this review is to systematically review literature underlining all the forms classified as ocular allergy: seasonal allergic conjunctivitis, perennial allergic conjunctivitis, vernal keratoconjunctivitis, atopic keratocongiuntivitis, contact allergy, and giant papillary conjunctivitis. PMID:23497516
visualization tool. Version 13.1.4 for Linux was tested. The SOAP conjunction analysis function does not have the capacity to perform the large...was examined by SOAP to confirm the conjunction. STK Advanced CAT STK Advanced CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) is an add-on module for the STK ...run with each tool. When attempting to perform the seven day all vs all analysis with STK Advanced CAT, the program consistently crashed during report
Hsieh, Vivian Chia-Rong; Liu, Chin-Chen; Hsiao, Yu-Chen; Wu, Trong-Neng
Purpose Despite links between maternal and child health status, evidence on the association between gum infection in pregnant mothers and childhood allergies is scarce. We aim to evaluate the risk of developing allergy in children born to periodontal mothers in a nationwide study. Methods We conducted a 9-year population-based, retrospective cohort study using Taiwan’s National Health Insurance database. A study cohort of 42,217 newborns born to mothers with periodontal disease during pregnancy was identified in 2001 and matched with 42,334 babies born to mothers without any infection (control) by mother’s age at delivery and baby sex. With a follow-up period from 2001 to 2010, we observed the incidence of allergic rhinitis (AR), allergic conjunctivitis (AC), and eczema in these children. Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed with premature deaths as competing risk for the estimation of allergic disease risks. Results Nine-year cumulative incidences were the highest among children born to periodontal mothers; they reached 46.8%, 24.2%, and 40.4% (vs. 39.5%, 18.3% and 34.8% in control) for AR, AC, and eczema, respectively. Our results showed moderately increased risks for the allergies in children born to periodontal mothers relative to their matched non-inflammatory control (adjusted HRs: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.15–1.20; 1.27, 1.24–1.31; 1.14, 1.12–1.17, respectively). Because the impact of food consumption and living environment cannot be considered using insurance data, we attempted to control it by adjusting for parental income and mother’s residential area. Conclusions Overall cumulative incidence and risks of children born to periodontal mothers for AR, AC, and eczema are significantly higher than those born to non-inflammatory mothers. Gum infection in women during pregnancy is an independent risk factor for allergic diseases in children, thus its intergenerational consequences should be considered in gestational care. PMID:27224053
Tales, A; Butler, S R; Fossey, J; Gilchrist, I D; Jones, R W; Troscianko, T
Human vision often needs to encode multiple characteristics of many elements of the visual field, for example their lightness and orientation. The paradigm of visual search allows a quantitative assessment of the function of the underlying mechanisms. It measures the ability to detect a target element among a set of distractor elements. We asked whether Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients are particularly affected in one type of search, where the target is defined by a conjunction of features (orientation and lightness) and where performance depends on some shifting of attention. Two non-conjunction control conditions were employed. The first was a pre-attentive, single-feature, "pop-out" task, detecting a vertical target among horizontal distractors. The second was a single-feature, partly attentive task in which the target element was slightly larger than the distractors-a "size" task. This was chosen to have a similar level of attentional load as the conjunction task (for the control group), but lacked the conjunction of two features. In an experiment, 15 AD patients were compared to age-matched controls. The results suggested that AD patients have a particular impairment in the conjunction task but not in the single-feature size or pre-attentive tasks. This may imply that AD particularly affects those mechanisms which compare across more than one feature type, and spares the other systems and is not therefore simply an 'attention-related' impairment. Additionally, these findings show a double dissociation with previous data on visual search in Parkinson's disease (PD), suggesting a different effect of these diseases on the visual pathway.
The first step to take in order to prevent and minimize the dangers of disasters or attacks, is risk assessment, followed closely by prioritization. This article discusses key vulnerability and risk assessment that Volpe Center has conducted in suppo...
The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d
Bloom, Ronald J.; And Others
Examines the use and understanding of concordant and discordant adverbial conjuncts in the latter part of the life span. Young, middle-aged, and elderly adults, matched for education level, were studied. Results indicate a significant decline in processing adverbial conjuncts in the elderly, due to a deficit in linguistic processing rather than a…
Woodman, Alan J
Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.
Koltiska, M.; Du, H.; Prochoda, D.; Kelly, K.
The Space Fence System is a ground-based space surveillance radar system designed to detect and track all objects in Low Earth Orbit the size of a softball or larger. The system detects many objects that are not currently in the catalog of satellites and space debris that is maintained by the US Air Force. In addition, it will also be capable of tracking many of the deep space objects in the catalog. By providing daily updates of the orbits of these new objects along with updates of most of the objects in the catalog, it will enhance Space Situational Awareness and significantly improve our ability to predict close approaches, aka conjunctions, of objects in space. With this additional capacity for tracking objects in space the Space Surveillance Network has significantly more resources for monitoring orbital debris, especially for debris that could collide with active satellites and other debris.
Khemlani, Sangeet; Orenes, Isabel; Johnson-Laird, P N
How do reasoners understand and formulate denials of compound assertions, such as conjunctions and disjunctions? A theory based on mental models postulates that individuals enumerate models of the various possibilities consistent with the assertions. It therefore predicts a novel interaction: in affirmations, conjunctions, A and B, which refer to one possibility, should be easier to understand than disjunctions, A or B, which refer to more than one possibility; in denials, conjunctions, not(A and B), which refer to more than one possibility, should be harder to understand than disjunctions, not(A or B), which do not. Conditionals are ambiguous and they should be of intermediate difficulty. Experiment 1 corroborated this trend with a task in which the participants selected which possibilities were consistent with assertions, such as: Bob denied that he wore a yellow shirt and he wore blue pants on Tuesday. Experiment 2 likewise showed that participants' own formulations of verbal denials yielded the same trend in which denials of conjunctions were harder than denials of conditionals, which in turn were harder than denials of disjunctions. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Escobar, D.; Sancho, A. Tirado, J.; Agueda, A.; Martin, L.; Luque, F.; Fletcher, E.; Navarro, V.
This paper presents the recent evolution of ESA's SSA Conjunction Prediction Service (CPS) as a result of an on-going activity in the Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) Segment of ESA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme. The CPS is one of a number of precursor services being developed as part of the SST segment. It has been implemented as a service to provide external users with web-based access to conjunction information and designed with a service-oriented architecture. The paper encompasses the following topics: service functionality enhancements, integration with a live objects catalogue, all vs. all analyses supporting an operational concept based on low and high fidelity screenings, and finally conjunction detection and probability algorithms.
Asymmetry is demonstrated between conjunctive targets in visual search with no detectable asymmetries between the individual features that compose these targets. Experiment 1 demonstrated this phenomenon for targets composed of color and shape. Experiment 2 and 4 demonstrate this asymmetry for targets composed of size and orientation and for targets composed of contrast level and orientation, respectively. Experiment 3 demonstrates that search rate of individual features cannot predict search rate for conjunctive targets. These results demonstrate the need for 2 levels of representations: one of features and one of conjunction of features. A model related to the modified feature integration theory is proposed to account for these results. The proposed model and other models of visual search are discussed.
Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)
Leung, Alexander Kc; Hon, Kam Lun; Wong, Alex H C; Wong, Andrew S
Bacterial conjunctivitis is a common reason for children to be seen in pediatric practices A correct diagnosis is important so that appropriate treatment can be instituted. To provide an update on the evaluation, diagnosis, and treatment of bacterial conjunctivitis in children. A PubMed search was completed in Clinical Queries using the key term "bacterial conjunctivitis". Patents were searched using the key term "bacterial conjunctivitis" from www.freepatentsonline.com and www.google.com/patents. In the neonatal period, bacterial conjunctivitis is rare and the most common cause of organism is Staphylococcus aureus, followed by Chlamydia trachomatis. In infants and older children, bacterial conjunctivitis is most often caused by Haemophilus influenzae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Moraxella catarrhalis. Clinically, bacterial conjunctivitis is characterized by a purulent eye discharge, or sticky eyes on awakening, a foreign body sensation and conjunctival injection (pink eye). The diagnosis is made clinically. Cultures are unnecessary. Some authors suggest a watchful observation approach as most cases of bacterial conjunctivitis are self-limited. A Cochrane review suggests the use of antibiotic eye drops is associated with modestly improved rates of clinical and microbiological omission as compared to the use of placebo. Various investigators have also disclosed patents for the treatment of conjunctivitis. The present consensus supports the use of topical antibiotics for bacterial conjunctivitis. Topical antibiotics shorten the course of the disease, reduce discomfort, prevent person-to-person transmission and reduce the rate of reinfection. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.
The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287
Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla
The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended
Loftus, Hayley L; Astell, Katie J; Mathai, Michael L; Su, Xiao Q
Limited studies have shown that Coleus forskohlii extract may aid in weight management. This randomized, double blind placebo-controlled clinical study assessed the effects of supplementation with C. forskohlii extract on key markers of obesity and metabolic parameters in overweight and obese individuals. Thirty participants completed the trial and they were randomly assigned to receive either 250 mg of C. forskohlii extract (n = 15) or a placebo twice daily for 12 weeks. All participants were advised to follow a hypocaloric diet throughout the study. Body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumference, and waist to hip ratio, were monitored fortnightly. Dietary intake was assessed at the baseline and weeks 4, 8 and 12. Appetite was assessed using visual analogue scales and blood samples were analyzed for plasma lipids, ghrelin, leptin, glucose and insulin at the baseline and end of the intervention. Significant reductions to waist and hip circumference (p = 0.02; p = 0.01, respectively) were recorded in both experimental and placebo groups after the 12 week intervention. Furthermore, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) was significantly increased (p = 0.01) in both groups. The experimental group showed a favorable improvement in insulin concentration and insulin resistance (p = 0.001; 0.01 respectively) compared to the placebo group. These findings suggest that C. forskohlii extract in conjunction with a hypocaloric diet may be useful in the management of metabolic risk factors.
Loftus, Hayley L.; Astell, Katie J.; Mathai, Michael L.; Su, Xiao Q.
Limited studies have shown that Coleus forskohlii extract may aid in weight management. This randomized, double blind placebo-controlled clinical study assessed the effects of supplementation with C. forskohlii extract on key markers of obesity and metabolic parameters in overweight and obese individuals. Thirty participants completed the trial and they were randomly assigned to receive either 250 mg of C. forskohlii extract (n = 15) or a placebo twice daily for 12 weeks. All participants were advised to follow a hypocaloric diet throughout the study. Body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumference, and waist to hip ratio, were monitored fortnightly. Dietary intake was assessed at the baseline and weeks 4, 8 and 12. Appetite was assessed using visual analogue scales and blood samples were analyzed for plasma lipids, ghrelin, leptin, glucose and insulin at the baseline and end of the intervention. Significant reductions to waist and hip circumference (p = 0.02; p = 0.01, respectively) were recorded in both experimental and placebo groups after the 12 week intervention. Furthermore, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) was significantly increased (p = 0.01) in both groups. The experimental group showed a favorable improvement in insulin concentration and insulin resistance (p = 0.001; 0.01 respectively) compared to the placebo group. These findings suggest that C. forskohlii extract in conjunction with a hypocaloric diet may be useful in the management of metabolic risk factors. PMID:26593941
Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar
Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.
Virzi, R A; Egeth, H E
According to feature-integration theory, when attention is diverted from a display, features from different objects in that display may be wrongly recombined, giving rise to "illusory conjunctions" (Treisman & Schmidt, 1982). Two experiments are reported that examine the nature of these illusory conjunctions. In displays that contain color names and adjectives printed in colored ink, subjects made two kinds of interesting and previously unreported errors. Consider, for example, a display that included the word BROWN in red ink and the word HEAVY in green ink. Subjects would sometimes incorrectly report that the word RED or the ink color brown had appeared in the display (e.g., RED in green ink or HEAVY in brown ink). It appears that subjects extract semantic representations from input and are sometimes confused about whether a particular representation has been extracted from a word or a color patch. Contrary to feature-integration theory, these findings suggest that illusory conjunctions may occur with high-level codes as well as with perceptual features.
Dumitru, Magda L.; Joergensen, Gitte H.
Reasoning, solving mathematical equations, or planning written and spoken sentences all must factor in stimuli perceptual properties. Indeed, thinking processes are inspired by and subsequently fitted to concrete objects and situations. It is therefore reasonable to expect that the mental representations evoked when people solve these seemingly abstract tasks should interact with the properties of the manipulated stimuli. Here, we investigated the mental representations evoked by conjunction and disjunction expressions in language-picture matching tasks. We hypothesised that, if these representations have been derived using key Gestalt principles, reasoners should use perceptual compatibility to gauge the goodness of fit between conjunction/disjunction descriptions (e.g., the purple and/ or the green) and corresponding binary visual displays. Indeed, the results of three experimental studies demonstrate that reasoners associate conjunction descriptions with perceptually-dependent stimuli and disjunction descriptions with perceptually-independent stimuli, where visual dependency status follows the key Gestalt principles of common fate, proximity, and similarity. PMID:26986760
Erez, Jonathan; Cusack, Rhodri; Kendall, William; Barense, Morgan D.
Critical to perceiving an object is the ability to bind its constituent features into a cohesive representation, yet the manner by which the visual system integrates object features to yield a unified percept remains unknown. Here, we present a novel application of multivoxel pattern analysis of neuroimaging data that allows a direct investigation of whether neural representations integrate object features into a whole that is different from the sum of its parts. We found that patterns of activity throughout the ventral visual stream (VVS), extending anteriorly into the perirhinal cortex (PRC), discriminated between the same features combined into different objects. Despite this sensitivity to the unique conjunctions of features comprising objects, activity in regions of the VVS, again extending into the PRC, was invariant to the viewpoints from which the conjunctions were presented. These results suggest that the manner in which our visual system processes complex objects depends on the explicit coding of the conjunctions of features comprising them. PMID:25921583
Dumitru, Magda L; Joergensen, Gitte H
Reasoning, solving mathematical equations, or planning written and spoken sentences all must factor in stimuli perceptual properties. Indeed, thinking processes are inspired by and subsequently fitted to concrete objects and situations. It is therefore reasonable to expect that the mental representations evoked when people solve these seemingly abstract tasks should interact with the properties of the manipulated stimuli. Here, we investigated the mental representations evoked by conjunction and disjunction expressions in language-picture matching tasks. We hypothesised that, if these representations have been derived using key Gestalt principles, reasoners should use perceptual compatibility to gauge the goodness of fit between conjunction/disjunction descriptions (e.g., the purple and/ or the green) and corresponding binary visual displays. Indeed, the results of three experimental studies demonstrate that reasoners associate conjunction descriptions with perceptually-dependent stimuli and disjunction descriptions with perceptually-independent stimuli, where visual dependency status follows the key Gestalt principles of common fate, proximity, and similarity.
Lobaugh, N J; Cole, S; Rovet, J F
Visual search performance was examined in three groups of children 7 to 12 years of age and in young adults. Colour and orientation feature searches and a conjunction search were conducted. Reaction time (RT) showed expected improvements in processing speed with age. Comparisons of RT's on target-present and target-absent trials were consistent with parallel search on the two feature conditions and with serial search in the conjunction condition. The RT results indicated searches for feature and conjunctions were treated similarly for children and adults. However, the youngest children missed more targets at the largest array sizes, most strikingly in conjunction search. Based on an analysis of speed/accuracy trade-offs, we suggest that low target-distractor discriminability leads to an undersampling of array elements, and is responsible for the high number of misses in the youngest children.
In vitro assays are increasingly being used in risk assessments Uncertainty in assays leads to uncertainty in models used for risk assessments. This poster assesses uncertainty in the ER and AR models.
The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.
Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.
As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.
Gomes, H; Bernstein, R; Ritter, W; Vaughan, H G; Miller, J
The purpose of this study was to determine whether feature conjunctions are stored in transient auditory memory. The mismatch negativity (MMN), an event-related potential that is elicited by stimuli that differ from a series of preceding stimuli, was used in this endeavour. A tone that differed from the preceding series of stimuli in the conjunction of two of its features, both present in preceding stimuli but in different combinations, was found to elicit the MMN. The data are interpreted to indicate that information about the conjunction of features is stored in the memory.
Goldstein, Bernard D
Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.
van Geldorp, Bonnie; Parra, Mario A; Kessels, Roy P C
The ability to form associations (i.e., binding) is critical for memory formation. Recent studies suggest that aging specifically affects relational binding (associating separate features) but not conjunctive binding (integrating features within an object). Possibly, this dissociation may be driven by the spatial nature of the studies so far. Alternatively, relational binding may simply require more attentional resources. We assessed relational and conjunctive binding in three age groups and we included an interfering task (i.e., an articulatory suppression task). Binding was examined in a working memory (WM) task using non-spatial features: shape and colour. Thirty-one young adults (mean age = 22.35), 30 middle-aged adults (mean age = 54.80) and 30 older adults (mean age = 70.27) performed the task. Results show an effect of type of binding and an effect of age but no interaction between type of binding and age. The interaction between type of binding and interference was significant. These results indicate that aging affects relational binding and conjunctive binding similarly. However, relational binding is more susceptible to interference than conjunctive binding, which suggests that relational binding may require more attentional resources. We suggest that a general decline in WM resources associated with frontal dysfunction underlies age-related deficits in WM binding.
Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".
Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Lambert, Ronald J W
In this communication, examples of applications of predictive microbiology in industrial contexts (i.e. Nestlé and Unilever) are presented which cover a range of applications in food safety from formulation and process design to consumer safety risk assessment. A tailor-made, private expert system, developed to support safe product/process design assessment is introduced as an example of how predictive models can be deployed for use by non-experts. Its use in conjunction with other tools and software available in the public domain is discussed. Specific applications of predictive microbiology techniques are presented relating to investigations of either growth or limits to growth with respect to product formulation or process conditions. An example of a probabilistic exposure assessment model for chilled food application is provided and its potential added value as a food safety management tool in an industrial context is weighed against its disadvantages. The role of predictive microbiology in the suite of tools available to food industry and some of its advantages and constraints are discussed.
Berman, A. L.; Rockwell, S. T.
The results of a study of Doppler data noise during solar conjunctions were presented. During the first half of 1975, a sizeable data base of Doppler data noise (estimates) for the Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11, and Helios 1 solar conjunctions was accumulated. To analyze this data, certain physical assumptions are made, leading to the development of a geometric parameter ("ISI") which correlates strongly with Doppler data noise under varying sun-earth-spacecraft geometries. Doppler noise models are then constructed from this parameter, resulting in the newfound ability to predict Doppler data noise during solar conjunctions, and hence to additionally be in a position to validate Doppler data acquired during solar conjunctions.
... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...
Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben
The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…
The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.
It is a widely accepted claim that scientific practice contains value judgments, i.e. decisions made on the basis of values. This paper clarifies the concepts involved in this claim and explains its implications for risk assessment. It is explained why values are necessarily a part of science and of risk assessment. A certain type of values that contribute to the aim of science, so-called epistemic values, are identified as rationally justified as basis for judgment in science. It is argued that the aims of pure science and risk assessment differ in some aspects and that consequently pure science's epistemic values are not sufficient for risk assessment. I suggest how the epistemic values may be supplemented in order to align better with the aim of risk assessment. It is concluded that since risk assessment is no less value-laden than pure science, it is important (a) that risk assessors become aware of what values they are (often implicitly) relying on, (b) that the values are justifiable, and (c) that transparency is ensured, i.e. that the values and value-based assumptions applied in particular risk assessments are explicitly acknowledged.
Tieu, Lyn; Romoli, Jacopo; Poortman, Eva; Winter, Yoad; Crain, Stephen
Previous developmental studies of conjunction have focused on the syntax of phrasal and sentential coordination (Lust, 1977; de Villiers, Tager-Flusberg & Hakuta, 1977; Bloom, Lahey, Hood, Lifter & Fiess, 1980, among others). The present study examined the flexibility of children's interpretation of conjunction. Specifically, when two…
Devitt, Aleea L; Monk-Fromont, Edwin; Schacter, Daniel L; Addis, Donna Rose
The constructive nature of memory is generally adaptive, allowing us to efficiently store, process and learn from life events, and simulate future scenarios to prepare ourselves for what may come. However, the cost of a flexibly constructive memory system is the occasional conjunction error, whereby the components of an event are authentic, but the combination of those components is false. Using a novel recombination paradigm, it was demonstrated that details from one autobiographical memory (AM) may be incorrectly incorporated into another, forming AM conjunction errors that elude typical reality monitoring checks. The factors that contribute to the creation of these conjunction errors were examined across two experiments. Conjunction errors were more likely to occur when the corresponding details were partially rather than fully recombined, likely due to increased plausibility and ease of simulation of partially recombined scenarios. Brief periods of imagination increased conjunction error rates, in line with the imagination inflation effect. Subjective ratings suggest that this inflation is due to similarity of phenomenological experience between conjunction and authentic memories, consistent with a source monitoring perspective. Moreover, objective scoring of memory content indicates that increased perceptual detail may be particularly important for the formation of AM conjunction errors.
... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...
The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...
Linnell, K J; Humphreys, G W
Within-dimension conjunction search for red-green targets amongst red-blue, and blue-green, nontargets is extremely inefficient (Wolfe et al, 1990 Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 16 879-892). We tested whether pairs of red-green conjunction targets can nevertheless be processed spatially in parallel. Participants made speeded detection responses whenever a red-green target was present. Across trials where a second identical target was present, the distribution of detection times was compatible with the assumption that targets were processed in parallel (Miller, 1982 Cognitive Psychology 14 247-279). We show that this was not an artifact of response-competition or feature-based processing. We suggest that within-dimension conjunctions can be processed spatially in parallel. Visual search for such items may be inefficient owing to within-dimension grouping between items.
Kaur, Ravinder; Paul, Madhumita; Malik, Rashmi
Conjunctive use of saline/non-saline irrigation waters is generally aimed at minimizing yield losses and enhancing flexibility of cropping, without much alteration in farming operations. Recommendation of location-specific suitable conjunctive water use plans requires assessment of their long-term impacts on soil salinization/sodification and crop yield reductions. This is conventionally achieved through long-term field experiments. However such impact evaluations are site specific, expensive and time consuming. Appropriate decision support systems (DSS) can be time-efficient and cost-effective means for such long-term impact evaluations. This study demonstrates the application of one such (indigenously developed) DSS for recommending best conjunctive water use plans for a, rice-wheat growing, salt affected farmer's field in Gurgaon district of Haryana (India). Before application, the DSS was extensively validated on several farmers and controlled experimental fields in Gurgaon and Karnal districts of Haryana (India). Validation of DSS showed its potential to give realistic estimates of root zone soil salinity (with R = 0.76-0.94; AMRE = 0.03-0.06; RMSPD = 0.51-0.90); sodicity (with R = 0.99; AMRE = 0.02; RMSPD = 0.84) and relative crop yield reductions (AMRE = 0.24), under existing (local) resource management practices. Long term (10 years) root zone salt build ups and associated rice/wheat crop yield reductions, in a salt affected farmer's field, under varied conjunctive water use scenarios were evaluated with the validated DSS. It was observed that long-term applications of canal (CW) and tube well (TW) waters in a cycle and in 1:1 mixed mode, during Kharif season, predicted higher average root zone salt reductions (2-9%) and lower rice crop yield reductions (4-5%) than the existing practice of 3-CW, 3-TW, 3-CW. Besides this, long-term application of 75% CW mixed with 25% TW, during Rabi season, predicted about 17% lower average root-zone salt reductions than
Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel
Judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule of probability. Representativeness and availability heuristics can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents. Alternative interpretations of this conjunction fallacy are discussed and attempts to combat it…
Yang, S; Jiang, Y; Jin, Y M; Zhang, J Y; Li, Y
Objective: To observe the clinical characteristics of allergic conjunctivitis, and the correlations with skin prick test results. Methods: A retrospective study. Forty patients with positive skin prick test result were included. Patients underwent an ophthalmologic examination to identify their primary presenting signs and symptoms. The allergy types were divided into 5 groups. All dates were analyzed for the dependence, normality and homogeneity of variance. Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis H test and Spearman correlation analysis were performed accordingly. Results: Among 40 patients, 18(45.0%) had a clinical diagnosis of seasonal allergic conjunctivitis, 14(35.0%) had perennial allergic conjunctivitis, 5(12.5%) had vernal keratoconjunctivitis, and 2(5.0%) had atopic keratoconjunctivits, and 1(2.5%) had giant papillary conjunctivitis. There was no significant difference in the number of symptoms and signs score among different types of allergic conjunctivitis, the score of itching and hyperemia had a positive relationship with the number of positive allergens ( r =0.74, P< 0.05. r =0.96, P< 0.05). The primary symptoms and signs are itching and hyperemia; dust and pollens are the most common allergens. The more positive result of the test of the allergen, the more symptoms and signs encountered in terms of severity. Conclusion: Seasonal allergic conjunctivitis was the most prevalent disorder, the most important clinical characteristics of allergic conjunctivitis are itching and conjunctival congestion, the main allergens are dust and pollens, patients may be sensitive to multiple allergens. (Chin J Ophthalmol, 2017, 53: 689-693) .
In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...
Bos, Peter M. J.; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F.; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C. E.; Oomen, Agnes G.
An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430
Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G
An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.
Monzón, Susana; Arrondo, Elena; Bartra, Joan; Torres, Ferran; Basagaña, María; San Miguel, M. del Mar; Alonso, Rosario; Cisteró-Bahima, Anna
Total tear IgE has been considered to play an important role in allergic conjunctivitis, and measurement has been considered useful for diagnosis. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether Lacrytest®, a new commercialised method to detect IgE levels in lacrimal fluid, could constitute a screening test for the diagnosis of allergic conjunctivitis. This was a cross-sectional study. Patients with seasonal and perennial allergic conjunctivitis, vernal keratoconjunctivitis and a control group were included. Clinical history, ophthalmic examination, skin prick test and conjunctival provocation test were obtained. Lacrytest® was later performed in all groups. Fifty-four patients were enrolled: thirty with IgE-mediated conjunctivitis and, nine with vernal keratoconjunctivitis and fifteen controls. Lacrytest® was negative in all controls, positive in 20% of the IgE-mediated conjunctivitis group and in 88.9% of the vernal keratoconjunctivitis group. Global statistically-significant differences were found among the three groups (P = .003). Sensitivity of the test in the IgE-mediated conjunctivitis group was 20%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 38.46%, while in VKC sensitivity was 88.88%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 93.75%. Our data confirm that this test is not useful for screening allergic conjunctivitis. Lacrytest®, while not providing any useful information to an allergist, could be helpful for ophthalmologists to confirm an IgE-mediated or VKC conjunctivitis. PMID:20975798
Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.
This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.
Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.
The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.
Davis, Donald R.
With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.
Devitt, Aleea L.; Monk-Fromont, Edwin; Schacter, Daniel L.; Addis, Donna Rose
The constructive nature of memory is generally adaptive, allowing us to efficiently store, process and learn from life events, and simulate future scenarios to prepare ourselves for what may come. However, the cost of a flexibly constructive memory system is the occasional conjunction error, whereby the components of an event are authentic, but the combination of those components is false. Using a novel recombination paradigm, it was demonstrated that details from one autobiographical memory may be incorrectly incorporated into another, forming autobiographical memory conjunction errors that elude typical reality monitoring checks. The factors that contribute to the creation of these conjunction errors were examined across two experiments. Conjunction errors were more likely to occur when the corresponding details were partially rather than fully recombined, likely due to increased plausibility and ease of simulation of partially recombined scenarios. Brief periods of imagination increased conjunction error rates, in line with the imagination inflation effect. Subjective ratings suggest that this inflation is due to similarity of phenomenological experience between conjunction and authentic memories, consistent with a source monitoring perspective. Moreover, objective scoring of memory content indicates that increased perceptual detail may be particularly important for the formation of autobiographical memory conjunction errors. PMID:25611492
This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.
This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.
... passed from the mother to her baby during childbirth. Even mothers without symptoms (asymptomatic) at the time ... can pass the bacteria to her baby during childbirth. Symptoms of inclusion conjunctivitis include redness of the ...
Mishra, Gyan P.; Tamboli, Viral; Jwala, Jwala; Mitra, Ashim K.
Ocular allergy is an inflammatory response of the conjunctival mucosa that also affects the cornea and eyelids. Allergic conjunctivitis includes seasonal allergic conjunctivitis (SAC), perennial allergic conjunctivitis (PAC), vernal keratoconjunctivitis (VKC), atopic keratoconjunctivitis (AKC) and giant papillary conjunctivitis (GPC). In general, allergic conditions involve mast cell degranulation that leads to release of inflammatory mediators and activation of enzymatic cascades generating pro-inflammatory mediators. In chronic ocular inflammatory disorders associated with mast cell activation such as VKC and AKC constant inflammatory response is observed due to predominance of inflammatory mediators such as eosinophils and Th2-generated cytokines. Antihistamines, mast-cell stabilizers, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents, corticosteroids and immunomodulatory agents are commonly indicated for the treatment of acute and chronic allergic conjunctivitis. In recent years newer drug molecules have been introduced in the treatment of allergic conjunctivitis. This article reviews recent patents and emerging therapeutics in the treatment of allergic conjunctivitis. PMID:21171952
This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.
Wojciechowski, Bartosz W; Pothos, Emmanuel M
Classical probability theory (CPT) has represented the rational standard for decision making in human cognition. Even though CPT has provided many descriptively excellent decision models, there have also been some empirical results persistently problematic for CPT accounts. The tension between the normative prescription of CPT and human behavior is particularly acute in cases where we have higher expectations for rational decisions. One such case concerns legal decision making from legal experts, such as attorneys and prosecutors and, more so, judges. In the present research we explore one of the most influential CPT decision fallacies, the conjunction fallacy (CF), in a legal decision making task, involving assessing evidence that the same suspect had committed two separate crimes. The information for the two crimes was presented consecutively. Each participant was asked to provide individual ratings for the two crimes in some cases and conjunctive probability rating for both crimes in other cases, after all information had been presented. Overall, 360 probability ratings for guilt were collected from 120 participants, comprised of 40 judges, 40 attorneys and prosecutors, and 40 individuals without legal education. Our results provide evidence for a double conjunction fallacy (in this case, a higher probability of committing both crimes than the probability of committing either crime individually), in the group of individuals without legal education. These results are discussed in terms of their applied implications and in relation to a recent framework for understanding such results, quantum probability theory (QPT).
Wojciechowski, Bartosz W.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.
Classical probability theory (CPT) has represented the rational standard for decision making in human cognition. Even though CPT has provided many descriptively excellent decision models, there have also been some empirical results persistently problematic for CPT accounts. The tension between the normative prescription of CPT and human behavior is particularly acute in cases where we have higher expectations for rational decisions. One such case concerns legal decision making from legal experts, such as attorneys and prosecutors and, more so, judges. In the present research we explore one of the most influential CPT decision fallacies, the conjunction fallacy (CF), in a legal decision making task, involving assessing evidence that the same suspect had committed two separate crimes. The information for the two crimes was presented consecutively. Each participant was asked to provide individual ratings for the two crimes in some cases and conjunctive probability rating for both crimes in other cases, after all information had been presented. Overall, 360 probability ratings for guilt were collected from 120 participants, comprised of 40 judges, 40 attorneys and prosecutors, and 40 individuals without legal education. Our results provide evidence for a double conjunction fallacy (in this case, a higher probability of committing both crimes than the probability of committing either crime individually), in the group of individuals without legal education. These results are discussed in terms of their applied implications and in relation to a recent framework for understanding such results, quantum probability theory (QPT). PMID:29674983
Brockmeier, Erica K.; Hodges, Geoff; Hutchinson, Thomas H.; Butler, Emma; Hecker, Markus; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Garcia-Reyero, Natalia; Kille, Peter; Becker, Dörthe; Chipman, Kevin; Colbourne, John; Collette, Timothy W.; Cossins, Andrew; Cronin, Mark; Graystock, Peter; Gutsell, Steve; Knapen, Dries; Katsiadaki, Ioanna; Lange, Anke; Marshall, Stuart; Owen, Stewart F.; Perkins, Edward J.; Plaistow, Stewart; Schroeder, Anthony; Taylor, Daisy; Viant, Mark; Ankley, Gerald; Falciani, Francesco
Abstract In conjunction with the second International Environmental Omics Symposium (iEOS) conference, held at the University of Liverpool (United Kingdom) in September 2014, a workshop was held to bring together experts in toxicology and regulatory science from academia, government and industry. The purpose of the workshop was to review the specific roles that high-content omics datasets (eg, transcriptomics, metabolomics, lipidomics, and proteomics) can hold within the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework for supporting ecological and human health risk assessments. In light of the growing number of examples of the application of omics data in the context of ecological risk assessment, we considered how omics datasets might continue to support the AOP framework. In particular, the role of omics in identifying potential AOP molecular initiating events and providing supportive evidence of key events at different levels of biological organization and across taxonomic groups was discussed. Areas with potential for short and medium-term breakthroughs were also discussed, such as providing mechanistic evidence to support chemical read-across, providing weight of evidence information for mode of action assignment, understanding biological networks, and developing robust extrapolations of species-sensitivity. Key challenges that need to be addressed were considered, including the need for a cohesive approach towards experimental design, the lack of a mutually agreed framework to quantitatively link genes and pathways to key events, and the need for better interpretation of chemically induced changes at the molecular level. This article was developed to provide an overview of ecological risk assessment process and a perspective on how high content molecular-level datasets can support the future of assessment procedures through the AOP framework. PMID:28525648
Mehrens, William A.; And Others
A study was undertaken to explore cost-effective ways of making career ladder teacher evaluation system decisions based on fewer measures, assessing the relationship of observational variables to other data and final decisions, and comparison of compensatory and conjunctive decision models. Data included multiple scores from eight data sources in…
Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C
To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.
EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.
Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...
Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.
Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.
Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.
Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.
Saiki, J; Hummel, J E
Five experiments demonstrated that in object category learning people are particularly sensitive to conjunctions of part shapes and relative locations. Participants learned categories defined by a part's shape and color (part-color conjunctions) or by a part's shape and its location relative to another part (part-location conjunctions). The statistical properties of the categories were identical across these conditions, as were the salience of color and relative location. Participants were better at classifying objects defined by part-location conjunctions than objects defined by part-color conjunctions. Subsequent experiments revealed that this effect was not due to the specific color manipulation or the role of location per se. These results suggest that the shape bias in object categorization is at least partly due to sensitivity to part-location conjunctions and suggest a new processing constraint on category learning.
Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)
A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.
Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.
Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.
Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G
Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag
Cosman, Joshua D; Lees, Monica N; Lee, John D; Rizzo, Matthew; Vecera, Shaun P
BACKGROUND/STUDY CONTEXT: Typical measures for assessing the useful field (UFOV) of view involve many components of attention. The objective of the current experiment was to examine differences in visual search efficiency for older individuals with and without UFOV impairment. The authors used a computerized screening instrument to assess the useful field of view and to characterize participants as having an impaired or normal UFOV. Participants also performed two visual search tasks, a feature search (e.g., search for a green target among red distractors) or a conjunction search (e.g., a green target with a gap on its left or right side among red distractors with gaps on the left or right and green distractors with gaps on the top or bottom). Visual search performance did not differ between UFOV impaired and unimpaired individuals when searching for a basic feature. However, search efficiency was lower for impaired individuals than unimpaired individuals when searching for a conjunction of features. The results suggest that UFOV decline in normal aging is associated with conjunction search. This finding suggests that the underlying cause of UFOV decline may arise from an overall decline in attentional efficiency. Because the useful field of view is a reliable predictor of driving safety, the results suggest that decline in the everyday visual behavior of older adults might arise from attentional declines.
Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck
The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.
Tausworthe, Robert C.
This report introduces a technique of software documentation called conjunctive programming and discusses its role in the development and maintenance of software systems. The report also describes the conjoin tool, an adjunct to assist practitioners. Aimed at supporting software reuse while conforming with conventional development practices, conjunctive programming is defined as the extraction, integration, and embellishment of pertinent information obtained directly from an existing database of software artifacts, such as specifications, source code, configuration data, link-edit scripts, utility files, and other relevant information, into a product that achieves desired levels of detail, content, and production quality. Conjunctive programs typically include automatically generated tables of contents, indexes, cross references, bibliographic citations, tables, and figures (including graphics and illustrations). This report presents an example of conjunctive programming by documenting the use and implementation of the conjoin program.
Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel
Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the
2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.
Belfrage, Henrik; Strand, Susanne; Storey, Jennifer E; Gibas, Andrea L; Kropp, P Randall; Hart, Stephen D
Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.
Prinzmetal, W; Diedrichsen, J; Ivry, R B
When presented with a red T and a green O, observers occasionally make conjunction responses and indicate that they saw a green T. These errors have been interpreted as reflecting separable processing stages of feature detection and integration with the illusory conjunctions arising from a failure at the integration stage. Recently, M. Donk (1999) asserted that the phenomenon of illusory conjunctions is an artifact. Conjunction reports are actually the result of confusing a nontarget item (O in the example above) for a target item (the letter T) and (correctly) reporting the color associated with the (incorrectly) selected target. The authors demonstrate that although target-nontarget confusion errors are a potential source of conjunction reports, there is a plethora of findings that cannot be accounted for by this confusion model. A review of the literature indicates that in many studies, illusory conjunctions do result from a failure to properly integrate features.
Two experiments investigated whether the conjunctive nature of nontarget items influenced search for a conjunction target. Each experiment consisted of two conditions. In both conditions, the target item was a red bar tilted to the right, among white tilted bars and vertical red bars. As well as color and orientation, display items also differed in terms of size. Size was irrelevant to search in that the size of the target varied randomly from trial to trial. In one condition, the size of items correlated with the other attributes of display items (e.g., all red items were big and all white items were small). In the other condition, the size of items varied randomly (i.e., some red items were small and some were big, and some white items were big and some were small). Search was more efficient in the size-correlated condition, consistent with the parallel coding of conjunctions in visual search.
Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.
The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…
Guidotti, Tee L; Pacha, Laura
Health threats place the military mission and deployed service members at risk. A commander's focus is on preventing acute health risks, such as diarrhea, because these quickly compromise the mission. However, in recent conflicts chronic and long-term illness risks have emerged as concerns. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff mandates require documentation of exposures and environmental conditions to reconstruct exposures and evaluate future health risks. Current processes for identifying and assessing hazards, including identification and assessment before deployment and in time to take action to prevent or reduce exposures, when followed, are generally adequate for known hazards. Identifying and addressing novel, unexpected risks remain challenges. Armed conflicts are associated with rapidly changing conditions, making ongoing hazard identification and assessment difficult. Therefore, surveillance of the environment for hazards and surveillance of personnel for morbidity must be practiced at all times. Communication of risk information to decision makers is critical but problematic. Preventive Medicine (PM) personnel should take responsibility for communicating this information to non-PM military medical people and to military commanders. Communication of risks identified and lessons learned between PM personnel of different military units is extremely important when one military unit replaces another in a deployed environment.
Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto
Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.
Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.
A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of
van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul
Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…
Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L
The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would
MacPhail, Robert C; Grulke, Eric A; Yokel, Robert A
Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug, or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of practice. The precision with which risk can be estimated is inevitably constrained, however, by uncertainties arising from the lack of pertinent data. Developing accurate risk assessments for nanoparticles and nanoparticle-containing products may present further challenges because of the unique properties of the particles, uncertainties about their composition and the populations exposed to them, and how these may change throughout the particle's life cycle. This review introduces the evolving practice of risk assessment followed by some of the uncertainties that need to be addressed to improve our understanding of nanoparticle risks. Given the clarion call for life-cycle assessments of nanoparticles, an unprecedented degree of national and international coordination between scientific organizations, regulatory agencies, and stakeholders will be required to achieve this goal. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Proulx, Michael J
Understanding the relative role of top-down and bottom-up guidance is crucial for models of visual search. Previous studies have addressed the role of top-down and bottom-up processes in search for a conjunction of features but with inconsistent results. Here, the author used an attentional capture method to address the role of top-down and bottom-up processes in conjunction search. The role of bottom-up processing was assayed by inclusion of an irrelevant-size singleton in a search for a conjunction of color and orientation. One object was uniquely larger on each trial, with chance probability of coinciding with the target; thus, the irrelevant feature of size was not predictive of the target's location. Participants searched more efficiently for the target when it was also the size singleton, and they searched less efficiently for the target when a nontarget was the size singleton. Although a conjunction target cannot be detected on the basis of bottom-up processing alone, participants used search strategies that relied significantly on bottom-up guidance in finding the target, resulting in interference from the irrelevant-size singleton.
This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.
Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: email@example.com; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C.; Renn, Ortwin
An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the socialmore » impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.« less
Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens
What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...
... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Examinations made in conjunction with other... § 452.5 Examinations made in conjunction with other inspections. (a) Periodic examinations may be made in conjunction with or as part of routine change-of-custody inspections, or in any other manner...
Browns, Ansley C.
I. During each nine-hour shift (or upon request), the Orbital Safety Analyst (OSA) at JSpOC updates the entire tracked catalog with the latest tracking data from the SSN and screens this catalog against NASA s assets. a) For ISS operations, a 72-hour advance screening is performed. b) For Shuttle orbit operations, a 36-hour advance screening is performed. c) If a vehicle is performing a maneuver during the screening period, OSA uses post-reboost-trajectory data supplied by Mission Control Center-Houston (MCC-H) for screening. II. An automated process is used to detect any conjunctions within 10 x 40 x 40 km box (centered on the vehicle) using Special Perturbation (SP) processing: a) Box dimensions are Radial x Downtrack x Crosstrack. b) Any object found within this box has the tracking tasking level increased to improve (hopefully) its uncertainty in its current and predicted orbital trajectory. c) OSA informs NASA if any object is found inside a 2 x 25 x 25 km box then creates and sends an Orbital Conjunction Message (OCM) to NASA which contains detailed information about the conjunction. d) For Shuttle, the box size used for screening and reporting is altered for special operations (day of rendezvous, launch screening, etc.).
The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...
Budianto-Ho, I.; Johnson, S.; Sivilli, R.; Alberty, C.; Scarberry, R.
The collision warnings produced by the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) are of critical importance in protecting U.S. and allied spacecraft against destructive collisions and protecting the lives of astronauts during space flight. As the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) improves its sensor capabilities for tracking small and dim space objects, the number of tracked objects increases from thousands to hundreds of thousands of objects, while the number of potential conjunctions increases with the square of the number of tracked objects. Classical filtering techniques such as apogee and perigee filters have proven insufficient. Novel and orders of magnitude faster conjunction analysis algorithms are required to find conjunctions in a timely manner. Stellar Science has developed innovative filtering techniques for satellite conjunction processing using spatiotemporally indexed ephemeris data that efficiently and accurately reduces the number of objects requiring high-fidelity and computationally-intensive conjunction analysis. Two such algorithms, one based on the k-d Tree pioneered in robotics applications and the other based on Spatial Hash Tables used in computer gaming and animation, use, at worst, an initial O(N log N) preprocessing pass (where N is the number of tracked objects) to build large O(N) spatial data structures that substantially reduce the required number of O(N^2) computations, substituting linear memory usage for quadratic processing time. The filters have been implemented as Open Services Gateway initiative (OSGi) plug-ins for the Continuous Anomalous Orbital Situation Discriminator (CAOS-D) conjunction analysis architecture. We have demonstrated the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of the techniques using a catalog of 100,000 objects, an analysis window of one day, on a 64-core computer with 1TB shared memory. Each algorithm can process the full catalog in 6 minutes or less, almost a twenty-fold performance improvement over the
Bassett, J; McClure, P
To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.
These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of DCM, there are human health concerns for both cancer and non-cancer effects. This DCM assessment of paint stripping uses will focus only on inhalation exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of DCM will be discussed in the assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.
Hall, Michael J; Forman, Andrea D; Pilarski, Robert; Wiesner, Georgia; Giri, Veda N
Next-generation sequencing technologies have ushered in the capability to assess multiple genes in parallel for genetic alterations that may contribute to inherited risk for cancers in families. Thus, gene panel testing is now an option in the setting of genetic counseling and testing for cancer risk. This article describes the many gene panel testing options clinically available to assess inherited cancer susceptibility, the potential advantages and challenges associated with various types of panels, clinical scenarios in which gene panels may be particularly useful in cancer risk assessment, and testing and counseling considerations. Given the potential issues for patients and their families, gene panel testing for inherited cancer risk is recommended to be offered in conjunction or consultation with an experienced cancer genetic specialist, such as a certified genetic counselor or geneticist, as an integral part of the testing process. Copyright © 2014 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.
Barker, Jason H.; Musher, Daniel M.; Silberman, Ronald; Phan, Hoang M.; Watson, David A.
Nontypeable Streptococcus pneumoniae is a common cause of epidemic conjunctivitis. A previous molecular fingerprinting study identified a clone of nontypeable pneumococcus that was responsible for a recent outbreak of conjunctivitis. In the present study, we examined the extent to which pneumococci that cause sporadic cases of conjunctivitis are related to this epidemic strain. Using arbitrarily primed BOX-PCR, we have determined that, of 10 nontypeable pneumococci causing sporadic conjunctivitis, 5 were clonal and closely related to a previous outbreak strain, whereas 5 others were genetically diverse. PMID:10565927
Brockmeier, Erica K; Hodges, Geoff; Hutchinson, Thomas H; Butler, Emma; Hecker, Markus; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Garcia-Reyero, Natalia; Kille, Peter; Becker, Dörthe; Chipman, Kevin; Colbourne, John; Collette, Timothy W; Cossins, Andrew; Cronin, Mark; Graystock, Peter; Gutsell, Steve; Knapen, Dries; Katsiadaki, Ioanna; Lange, Anke; Marshall, Stuart; Owen, Stewart F; Perkins, Edward J; Plaistow, Stewart; Schroeder, Anthony; Taylor, Daisy; Viant, Mark; Ankley, Gerald; Falciani, Francesco
In conjunction with the second International Environmental Omics Symposium (iEOS) conference, held at the University of Liverpool (United Kingdom) in September 2014, a workshop was held to bring together experts in toxicology and regulatory science from academia, government and industry. The purpose of the workshop was to review the specific roles that high-content omics datasets (eg, transcriptomics, metabolomics, lipidomics, and proteomics) can hold within the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework for supporting ecological and human health risk assessments. In light of the growing number of examples of the application of omics data in the context of ecological risk assessment, we considered how omics datasets might continue to support the AOP framework. In particular, the role of omics in identifying potential AOP molecular initiating events and providing supportive evidence of key events at different levels of biological organization and across taxonomic groups was discussed. Areas with potential for short and medium-term breakthroughs were also discussed, such as providing mechanistic evidence to support chemical read-across, providing weight of evidence information for mode of action assignment, understanding biological networks, and developing robust extrapolations of species-sensitivity. Key challenges that need to be addressed were considered, including the need for a cohesive approach towards experimental design, the lack of a mutually agreed framework to quantitatively link genes and pathways to key events, and the need for better interpretation of chemically induced changes at the molecular level. This article was developed to provide an overview of ecological risk assessment process and a perspective on how high content molecular-level datasets can support the future of assessment procedures through the AOP framework. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology.
Ruilope, Luis M; Segura, Julian
Accurate assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with hypertension is important when planning appropriate treatment of modifiable risk factors. The causes of CVD are multifactorial, and hypertension seldom exists as an isolated risk factor. Classic models of risk assessment are more accurate than a simple counting of risk factors, but they are not generalizable to all populations. In addition, the risk associated with hypertension is graded, continuous, and independent of other risk factors, and this is not reflected in classic models of risk assessment. This article is intended to review both classic and newer models of CVD risk assessment. MEDLINE was searched for articles published between 1990 and 2005 that contained the terms cardiovascular disease, hypertension, or risk assessment. Articles describing major clinical trials, new data about cardiovascular risk, or global risk stratification were selected for review. Some patients at high long-term risk for CVD events (eg, patients aged <50 years with multiple risk factors) may go untreated because they do not meet the absolute risk-intervention threshold of 20% risk over 10 years with the classic model. Recognition of the limitations of classic risk-assessment models led to new guidelines, particularly those of the European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology. These guidelines view hypertension as one of many risk and disease factors that require treatment to decrease risk. These newer guidelines include a more comprehensive range of risk factors and more finely graded blood pressure ranges to stratify patients by degree of risk. Whether they accurately predict CVD risk in most populations is not known. Evidence from the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) study, which stratified patients by several risk and disease factors, highlights the predictive value of some newer CVD risk assessments. Modern risk assessments, which include blood pressure
Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao
Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.
Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S
To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.
The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.
Cain, Kate; Patson, Nikole; Andrews, Leanne
Two studies investigating young readers' use of conjunctions are reported. In Study One, 145 eight- to ten-year-olds completed one of two narrative cloze tasks in which different types of conjunction were deleted. Performance for additive conjunctions was not affected by age in this study, but older children were more likely to select the target conjunction than were younger children for temporal, causal, and adversative terms. Performance was superior in the cloze task in which they were given a restricted choice of responses (three vs. seven). In Study Two, 35 eight- and nine-year-old good and poor comprehenders completed the three-choice cloze task. The poor comprehenders were less likely to select the target terms in general. Sentence-level comprehension skills did not account for their poor performance. The results indicate that understanding of the semantic relations expressed by conjunctions is still developing long after these terms are used correctly in children's speech. The findings are discussed in relation to the role of conjunctions in text comprehension.
Reavis, Eric A; Frank, Sebastian M; Tse, Peter U
Useful information in the visual environment is often contained in specific conjunctions of visual features (e.g., color and shape). The ability to quickly and accurately process such conjunctions can be learned. However, the neural mechanisms responsible for such learning remain largely unknown. It has been suggested that some forms of visual learning might involve the dopaminergic neuromodulatory system (Roelfsema et al., 2010; Seitz and Watanabe, 2005), but this hypothesis has not yet been directly tested. Here we test the hypothesis that learning visual feature conjunctions involves the dopaminergic system, using functional neuroimaging, genetic assays, and behavioral testing techniques. We use a correlative approach to evaluate potential associations between individual differences in visual feature conjunction learning rate and individual differences in dopaminergic function as indexed by neuroimaging and genetic markers. We find a significant correlation between activity in the caudate nucleus (a component of the dopaminergic system connected to visual areas of the brain) and visual feature conjunction learning rate. Specifically, individuals who showed a larger difference in activity between positive and negative feedback on an unrelated cognitive task, indicative of a more reactive dopaminergic system, learned visual feature conjunctions more quickly than those who showed a smaller activity difference. This finding supports the hypothesis that the dopaminergic system is involved in visual learning, and suggests that visual feature conjunction learning could be closely related to associative learning. However, no significant, reliable correlations were found between feature conjunction learning and genotype or dopaminergic activity in any other regions of interest. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef
Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.
Barlow, Susan, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org; Schlatter, Josef; Federal Office of Public Health, Consumer Protection Directorate, Stauffacherstrasse 101, CH-8004 Zuerich
Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitudemore » below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.« less
Coffey, Patrick S.
Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721
Oboni, Franco; Oboni, Cesar
We will use throught this paper a "dialogue" between two professionals. One is aware of the misleading character of many risk assessments and wants to foster better approaches. A discomforting set of statements sets the background of the "story": public reactions to risk assessments are generally negative, the developer find it difficult to understand the reasons for general public negative reactions, many projects get often rejected without valid reasons by the public, anywhere in the world. Common practice approaches in Risk Assessment are discussed from the angle of public rejection, taking into account various studies that explicitly expose common practices limitations and voids. The hiatus between rational and well-balanced risk assessments and common practices is explored. Finally solutions to overcome the limitations of common practices and deliver to the public more realistic risk assessment on which to build a widespread consensus are reviewed. The paper conclusions relate to the need of: properly communicating risk throughout the life of a project, from cradle to grave, avoiding conflict of interest, having estimates that are understandable to foster good understanding of what a risk assessment can bring to better Human existence, in an ethical and fair way. The paper delivers a list of possible remedies and shows that "Common Practices" do not equate to "Best Practices": common practices are not to be proposed/used any longer if we want to avoid public distrust and misrepresentations. Many of the "modern" issues ranging from public distrust to insurance denial could be relieved or mitigated ahead of time if misrepresentation was kept at bay using five simple rules. Common practice Risk Assessments, especially those developed under conflict of interest situations, generally misrepresent risks and fail to give the "big picture", hence do not help taking valid decision and are prone to generating/fostering public distrust.
Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy
Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?
Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan
Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859
Alsuwaidi, Ahmed R.; Wiebe, Deborah; Burdz, Tamara; Ng, Betty; Reimer, Aleisha; Singh, Cathleen; Bernard, Kathryn
This report describes for the first time Corynebacterium macginleyi as a cause of conjunctivitis in Canada, where menaquinone analysis was done as part of the strain characterization. This species is typically isolated from ocular surfaces of patients from Europe and Japan. The isolate was resistant to erythromycin and clindamycin. PMID:20702661
This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks f...
17 5.4.2 Step 2: Gather relevant technology and alternative information............... 17 5.4.3 Step 3: Secure SME support for readiness...level assessment. ................... 17 5.4.4 Step 4: SMEs assess TRL, IRL, and MRL for each technology. .............. 17 5.4.5 Step 5: Identify...technical risks, risk ratings, and mitigations. .................. 20 5.4.6 Step 6: SMEs identify key technologies
Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.
This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less
Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata
Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence.
The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...
Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W
Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180
Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali
Background: With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples. This study has tried to investigate preconception risk assessment in infertile couples. Materials and Methods: This is a descriptive analytical survey conducted on 268 subjects, selected by convenient sampling, referring to Isfahan infertility centers (Iran). The data were collected by questionnaires through interview and clients’ medical records. Pre-pregnancy risk assessment including history taking (personal, familial, medical, medications, menstruation, and pregnancy), exams (physical, genital, and vital signs), and routine test requests (routine, cervix, infections, and biochemical tests) was performed in the present study. Results: The results showed that the lowest percentage of taking a complete history was for personal history (0.4%) and the highest was for history of menstruation (100%). The lowest percentage of complete exam was for physical exam (3.4%) and the highest for genital exam (100%). With regard to laboratory assessment, the highest percentage was for routine tests (36.6%) and the lowest was for infection tests (0.4%). Conclusion: Based o the results of the present study, most of the risk assessment components are poorly assessed in infertile couples. With regard to the importance of infertility treatment, spending high costs and time on that, and existence of high-risk individuals as well as treatment failures, health providers should essentially pay special attention to preconception risk assessment in infertile couples in order to enhance the chance of success and promote treatment outcome. PMID:23983724
Newman, Lauri K.
Since 1957, humankind's reliance on the space domain for military, humanitarian, and commercial applications has continued to increase. 1960 first successful use of a meteorological satellite,1963 first use of a geosynchronous communications satellite, 1985 Block I of GPS fielded, 1998 first module of ISS, 2001 first satellite radio broadcast over North America. What you take into space, stays in space: launch vehicle, rocket-bodies, mission-related debris. Debris can also be generated on-orbit: fuel/battery explosions, collisions. Only naturally-occurring retarding effect is orbital decay due to atmospheric drag: some remediation measures available, active debris removal not yet viable option. Because of our reliance on space and the fact that space really isn't limitless, the Big Sky theory is no longer an acceptable risk posture. There have been eight (8) on-orbit collisions reported to date, half of which occurred in the last 10 years.
Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)
A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.
Schwalbe, Craig S
Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.
Hazeltine, R E; Prinzmetal, W; Elliott, W
There is evidence that complex objects are decomposed by the visual system into features, such as shape and color. Consistent with this theory is the phenomenon of illusory conjunctions, which occur when features are incorrectly combined to form an illusory object. We analyzed the perceived location of illusory conjunctions to study the roles of color and shape in the location of visual objects. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants located illusory conjunctions about halfway between the veridical locations of the component features. Experiment 3 showed that the distribution of perceived locations was not the mixture of two distributions centered at the 2 feature locations. Experiment 4 replicated these results with an identification task rather than a detection task. We concluded that the locations of illusory conjunctions were not arbitrary but were determined by both constituent shape and color.
Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.
Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.
Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
Francisco, D.; Romero, E.
NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary
September 26, 1997. The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, which was mandated as part of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, was disbanded on August 31, 1997, with some staff work continuing into September. The reports and asso...
Tucker, William; And Others
This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)
Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael
A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…
Before the ecological risk assessment is conducted, risk assessors and risk managers engage in a planning dialogue to ensure that the risk assessment will enable the risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.
Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.
Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items
Tanaka, A.; Sakamoto, Y.; Kano, Y.; Higashino, H.; Suzumura, M.; Tosha, T.; Nakao, S.; Komai, T.
We have started a new R&D project titled 'Energy resources creation by geo-microbes and CCS'. It is new concept of a technology which cultivate methanogenic geo-microbes in reservoirs of geological CCS conditions to produce methane gas effectively and safely. As one of feasibility studies, we are evaluating risks around its new Bio-CCS technology. Our consideration involves risk scenarios about Bio-CCS in geological strata, marine environment, surface facilities, ambient air and injection sites. To cover risk scenarios in these areas, we are carrying out a sub-project with five sub-themes. Four sub-themes out of five are researches for identifying risk scenarios: A) Underground strata and injection well, B) Ambient air, C) Surface facilities and D) Seabed. We are developing risk assessment tool,named GERAS-CO2GS (Geo-environmental Risk Assessment System,CO2 Geological Storage Risk Assessment System. We are going to combine identified risk scenarios into GERAS-CO2GS accordingly. It is expected that new GERAS-CO2GS will contribute to risk assessment and management for not only Bio-CCS but also individual injection sites, and facilitate under standing of risks among legislators and concerned peoples around injection site.
Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments
On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.
Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L
Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.
Page, Guy; Ratchada, Phachareeya; Miron, Yannick; Steiner, Guido; Ghetti, Andre; Miller, Paul E; Reynolds, Jack A; Wang, Ken; Greiter-Wilke, Andrea; Polonchuk, Liudmila; Traebert, Martin; Gintant, Gary A; Abi-Gerges, Najah
While current S7B/E14 guidelines have succeeded in protecting patients from QT-prolonging drugs, the absence of a predictive paradigm identifying pro-arrhythmic risks has limited the development of valuable drug programs. We investigated if a human ex-vivo action potential (AP)-based model could provide a more predictive approach for assessing pro-arrhythmic risk in man. Human ventricular trabeculae from ethically consented organ donors were used to evaluate the effects of dofetilide, d,l-sotalol, quinidine, paracetamol and verapamil on AP duration (APD) and recognized pro-arrhythmia predictors (short-term variability of APD at 90% repolarization (STV(APD90)), triangulation (ADP90-APD30) and incidence of early afterdepolarizations at 1 and 2Hz to quantitatively identify the pro-arrhythmic risk. Each drug was blinded and tested separately with 3 concentrations in triplicate trabeculae from 5 hearts, with one vehicle time control per heart. Electrophysiological stability of the model was not affected by sequential applications of vehicle (0.1% dimethyl sulfoxide). Paracetamol and verapamil did not significantly alter anyone of the AP parameters and were classified as devoid of pro-arrhythmic risk. Dofetilide, d,l-sotalol and quinidine exhibited an increase in the manifestation of pro-arrhythmia markers. The model provided quantitative and actionable activity flags and the relatively low total variability in tissue response allowed for the identification of pro-arrhythmic signals. Power analysis indicated that a total of 6 trabeculae derived from 2 hearts are sufficient to identify drug-induced pro-arrhythmia. Thus, the human ex-vivo AP-based model provides an integrative translational assay assisting in shaping clinical development plans that could be used in conjunction with the new CiPA-proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Page, Guy; Ratchada, Phachareeya; Miron, Yannick; Steiner, Guido; Ghetti, Andre; Miller, Paul E; Reynolds, Jack A; Wang, Ken; Greiter-Wilke, Andrea; Polonchuk, Liudmila; Traebert, Martin; Gintant, Gary A; Abi-Gerges, Najah
While current S7B/E14 guidelines have succeeded in protecting patients from QT-prolonging drugs, the absence of a predictive paradigm identifying pro-arrhythmic risks has limited the development of valuable drug programs. We investigated if a human ex-vivo action potential (AP)-based model could provide a more predictive approach for assessing pro-arrhythmic risk in man. Human ventricular trabeculae from ethically consented organ donors were used to evaluate the effects of dofetilide, d,l-sotalol, quinidine, paracetamol and verapamil on AP duration (APD) and recognized pro-arrhythmia predictors (short-term variability of APD at 90% repolarization (STV(APD90)), triangulation (ADP90-APD30) and incidence of early afterdepolarizations at 1 and 2 Hz to quantitatively identify the pro-arrhythmic risk. Each drug was blinded and tested separately with 3 concentrations in triplicate trabeculae from 5 hearts, with one vehicle time control per heart. Electrophysiological stability of the model was not affected by sequential applications of vehicle (0.1% dimethyl sulfoxide). Paracetamol and verapamil did not significantly alter anyone of the AP parameters and were classified as devoid of pro-arrhythmic risk. Dofetilide, d,l-sotalol and quinidine exhibited an increase in the manifestation of pro-arrhythmia markers. The model provided quantitative and actionable activity flags and the relatively low total variability in tissue response allowed for the identification of pro-arrhythmic signals. Power analysis indicated that a total of 6 trabeculae derived from 2 hearts are sufficient to identify drug-induced pro-arrhythmia. Thus, the human ex-vivo AP-based model provides an integrative translational assay assisting in shaping clinical development plans that could be used in conjunction with the new CiPA-proposed approach. PMID:27235787
Ko, Ryota; Hayashi, Masahiko; Hayashi, Hideyuki; Hayashi, Kazue; Kato, Hitoshi; Kurata, Yoshinori; Fuchino, Yuki; Nakamichi, Toshifumi; Migita, Hironori; Yano, Hiroko; Sakata, Tetsuya; Uchio, Eiichi
The aim of this study was to determine the presence of Asian dust particles (ADP) in patients suffering from conjunctivitis and its correlation with clinical scores for conjunctivitis. Forty-five patients from the Fukuoka area who were newly diagnosed acute conjunctivitis were selected. The degrees of inflammatory reaction, itchy sensation, hyperemia, eye discharge, and foreign body sensation were clinically recorded and scored. Eyes were washed with physiological solution. Solid particles collected from the washing solution were observed using a scanning electron microscope. Of the 45 samples, 44 were positive for the elements silicon (Si) and aluminum (Al), which are components of ambient Asian dust. Higher conjunctivitis scores were found in the subgroup in which the Asian dust/whole particle ratio was greater than average. This is the first apparent report on the correlation between amount of ADP exposure at the ocular surface and severity of ocular symptoms.
The paper is to be published in the proceedings of a conference on learning disabilities. It summarizes the need for neurotoxicology data in risk assessment, the regulatory agencies which have authority to require toxicity testing, the overall process of risk assessment and the p...
Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...
Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.
Tully, Ruth J; Browne, Kevin D
This critical appraisal explores the reliability and validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool that is widely used in the United Kingdom. The Risk Matrix 2000 has to some extent been empirically validated for use with adult male sex offenders; however, this review highlights that further research into the validity of this static tool with sex offender subgroups or types is necessary in order to improve practical utility. The Risk Matrix 2000 relies on static risk predictors, thus it is limited in scope. This article argues that the addition of dynamic items that have been shown to be predictive of sexual recidivism would further enhance the tool. The paper argues that adding dynamic risk items would fit better with a rehabilitative approach to sex offender risk management and assessment. This would also provide a means by which to effectively plan sex offender treatment and evaluate individual offenders' progress in treatment; however, difficulties remain in identifying and assessing dynamic risk factors of sexual offending and so further research is required. © The Author(s) 2013.
Coleman, Susanne; Nelson, E Andrea; Keen, Justin; Wilson, Lyn; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Dealey, Carol; Stubbs, Nikki; Muir, Delia; Farrin, Amanda; Dowding, Dawn; Schols, Jos M G A; Cuddigan, Janet; Berlowitz, Dan; Jude, Edward; Vowden, Peter; Bader, Dan L; Gefen, Amit; Oomens, Cees W J; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Nixon, Jane
To agree a draft pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set to underpin the development of a new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Framework. A recent systematic review identified the need for a pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set and development and validation of an evidenced-based pressure ulcer Risk Assessment Framework. This was undertaken through the Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research and incorporates five phases. This article reports phase two, a consensus study. Consensus study. A modified nominal group technique based on the Research and Development/University of California at Los Angeles appropriateness method. This incorporated an expert group, review of the evidence and the views of a Patient and Public Involvement service user group. Data were collected December 2010-December 2011. The risk factors and assessment items of the Minimum Data Set (including immobility, pressure ulcer and skin status, perfusion, diabetes, skin moisture, sensory perception and nutrition) were agreed. In addition, a draft Risk Assessment Framework incorporating all Minimum Data Set items was developed, comprising a two stage assessment process (screening and detailed full assessment) and decision pathways. The draft Risk Assessment Framework will undergo further design and pre-testing with clinical nurses to assess and improve its usability. It will then be evaluated in clinical practice to assess its validity and reliability. The Minimum Data Set could be used in future for large scale risk factor studies informing refinement of the Risk Assessment Framework. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...
Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A
Liederman, J; Sohn, Y S
We tested the hypothesis that division of inputs between the hemispheres could prevent interword letter migrations in the form of illusory conjunctions. The task was to decide whether a centrally-presented consonant-vowel-consonant (CVC) target word matched one of four CVC words presented to a single hemisphere or divided between the hemispheres in a subsequent test display. During half of the target-absent trials, known as conjunction trials, letters from two separate words (e.g., "tag" and "cop") in the test display could be mistaken for a target word (e.g., "top"). For the other half of the target-absent trails, the test display did not match any target consonants (Experiment 1, N = 16) or it matched one target consonant (Experiment 2, N = 29), the latter constituting true "feature" trials. Bi- as compared to unihemispheric presentation significantly reduced the number of conjunction, but not feature, errors. Illusory conjunctions did not occur when the words were presented to separate hemispheres.
The empirical focus of this paper is a conversational turn-taking phenomenon in which conjunctions produced immediately after a point of possible syntactic and pragmatic completion are treated by co-participants as points of possible completion and transition relevance. The data for this study are audio-video recordings of 5 unscripted face-to-face interactions involving native speakers of US English, yielding 28 'trail-off' conjunctions. Detailed sequential analysis of talk is combined with analysis of visible features (including gaze, posture, gesture and involvement with material objects) and technical phonetic analysis. A range of phonetic and visible features are shown to regularly co-occur in the production of 'trail-off' conjunctions. These features distinguish them from other conjunctions followed by the cessation of talk.
The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sources. This national-scale effort will be initiated for the base year 1996 and repeated every three years thereafter to track trends and inform program development. Provide broad-scale understanding of inhalation risks for a subset of atmospherically-emitted air toxics to inform further data-gathering efforts and priority-setting for the EPA's Air Toxics Programs.
Kim, Tae Hyung; Moon, Nam Ju
Clinical patterns in pediatric patients with dry eye syndrome and allergic conjunctivitis were investigated. Children aged 6 to 15 years with dry eye symptoms were included. Slit-lamp examinations including tear film break-up time, Schirmer's test, and fluorescent staining were performed, and subjective symptoms were investigated. Patients with allergic conjunctivitis were subjected to skin prick tests. Tear film break-up time was shorter and the number of symptoms related to dry eyes was higher in pediatric patients with allergic conjunctivitis than in those without allergic conjunctivitis. Patients with allergic conjunctivitis who had higher numbers of positive allergens on the skin prick test also had shorter tear film break-up time. Because pediatric patients with dry eye syndrome tend to complain less about their symptoms than adult patients, dry eye syndrome is commonly overlooked. This study showed that dry eyes tended to be more severe with the presence of allergic conjunctivitis; the more allergens present, the more severe the dry eyes. More attention should be paid to the treatment of pediatric patients with dry eyes accompanied by allergies. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.
Elwood, Richard W
There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.
Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma
There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.
Turturro, A; Hart, R W
A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.
Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei
Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M
Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.
Ibrahim, Osama M A; Dogru, Murat; Ward, Samantha K; Matsumoto, Yukihiro; Wakamatsu, Tais Hitomi; Ishida, Katsushi; Tsuyama, Atsushi; Kojima, Takashi; Shimazaki, Jun; Tsubota, Kazuo
To evaluate the specificity and sensitivity of strip meniscometry (SM) testing in conjunction with tear function tests in the diagnosis of dry eye (DE) disease and to investigate the effect of SM on reflex tearing. One hundred seven left eyes of 107 patients with definite DE disease according to the Japanese DE diagnostic criteria and 68 left eyes of 68 age- and sex-matched control subjects were studied. Tear meniscus height (TMH) measurements, fluorescein tear film break-up time (FTBUT), fluorescein (F) and rose bengal (RB) staining, and Schirmer's test-1 (ST) were also performed. The assessment of reflex tearing before and after SM application was assessed with a graticule scale at the slit lamp and by optical coherence tomography. The sensitivity and specificity of SM alone and in combination with tear function tests were also sought. The SM scores, TMH measurements, FTBUTs, and STs were significantly lower in dry eye patients than in the controls (P < 0.001). The RB and F staining scores were significantly higher in the dry eye group than in the control group (P < 0.001). The meniscometry strips did not induce significant changes in relation to reflex tearing. SM had an acceptable sensitivity and specificity. SM is a swift, noninvasive, promising method of assessing tear meniscus volume. The combined SM and FTBUT examination appears to be a sensitive approach to the assessment of dry eye disease.
Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace
Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.
Wallace, W Jon
Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.
M. Donk (1999) showed that various data patterns that have been considered as evidence for the existence of illusory conjunctions may be due to errors of target-nontarget confusion, an account that challenges the mere existence of illusory conjunction. In a reply, W. Prinzmetal, J. Diedrichsen, and R. B. Ivry (2001) argued against this conclusion, claiming that some earlier findings can be explained only when one assumes that illusory conjunctions exist. The current article shows that Prinzmetal et al.'s claims cannot refute any of Donk's earlier conclusions, suggesting indeed that one can only conclude that "illusory conjunctions are an illusion."
Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...
Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con
This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.
Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe
Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.
Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen
Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503
Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c
Tagawa, Yoshiaki; Namba, Kenichi; Nakazono, Yumi; Iwata, Daiju; Ishida, Susumu
The efficacy of epinastine 0.05% ophthalmic solution for pollen allergic conjunctivitis has already been shown in a conjunctival allergen challenge (CAC) test using cedar pollen as a challenge. The present study investigated the efficacy of this solution against birch pollen conjunctivitis in a CAC test. Ten adult subjects (eight males and two females) with asymptomatic birch pollen conjunctivitis were enrolled in this study. The average age of the subjects was 41.1 years. This study was conducted during a period without birch pollen dispersion. In each subject, the epinastine 0.05% ophthalmic solution was instilled in one eye, and an artificial tear fluid was instilled in the fellow eye in a double-blind manner. Five minutes or 4 h after the drug instillation, both eyes were challenged with an optimal concentration of birch pollen, and ocular itching and conjunctival hyperemia were then graded. Tears were collected before the drug instillation and 20 min after the pollen challenge, and the histamine level was measured. The ocular itching scores and palpebral conjunctival hyperemia scores of the epinastine-treated eyes were significantly lower than those of the contralateral control eyes when the eyes were pretreated with the drug 4 h before the CAC. There was a significant correlation between the tear histamine level and mean ocular itching score of three time points (3, 5 and 10 min) following the CAC in the control eyes but not the epinastine-treated eyes. Epinastine is effective in suppressing ocular itching and conjunctival hyperemia in birch pollen conjunctivitis. Copyright © 2017 Japanese Society of Allergology. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.
NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.
Gong, Lu; Amut, Aniwaer; Shi, Qingdong; Wang, Gary Z.
The ecosystem risk assessment is an essential decision making system for predicting the reconstruction and recovery of a damaged ecosystem after intensive mankind activities. The sustainability of environment and resources of the lake ecosystem in arid districts have been paid close attention to by international communities as well as numerous experts and scholars. The ecological risk assessment offered a scientific foundation for making the decision and execution of ecological risk management. Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, is the main water source of the industrial and agricultural production as well as the local residence in Yanqi basin, Kuara city and Yuri County in the southern Xinjiang. Bosten Lake also provides a direct water source for emergency transportation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River. However, with the intensive utilizations of water and soil resources, the environmental condition in the Bosten Lake has become more and more serious. In this study, the theory and method of landscape ecological risk assessment has been practiced using 3S technologies combined with the frontier theory of landscape ecology. Defining the mainly risk resource including flood, drought, water pollution and rich nutrition of water has been evaluated based on the ecosystem risk assessment system. The main process includes five stages: regional natural resources analysis, risk receptor selection, risk sources evaluation, exposure and hazard analysis, and integrated risk assessment. Based on the risk assessment results, the environmental risk management countermeasure has been determined.
Ruusuvirta, Timo; Huotilainen, Minna; Fellman, Vineta; Näätänen, Risto
Natural environments are usually composed of multiple sources for sounds. The sounds might physically differ from one another only as feature conjunctions, and several of them might occur repeatedly in the short term. Nevertheless, the detection of rare sounds requires the identification of the repeated ones. Adults have some limited ability to effortlessly identify repeated sounds in such acoustically complex environments, but the developmental onset of this finite ability is unknown. Sleeping newborn infants were presented with a repeated tone carrying six frequent (P = 0.15 each) and six rare (P approximately 0.017 each) conjunctions of its frequency, intensity and duration. Event-related potentials recorded from the infants' scalp were found to shift in amplitude towards positive polarity selectively in response to rare conjunctions. This finding suggests that humans are relatively hard-wired to preattentively identify repeated auditory feature conjunctions even when such conjunctions occur rarely among other similar ones.
Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.
The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.
We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...
Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol
, Parkinson's disease, poor mobility, rheumatoid arthritis, chronic kidney disease, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, venous thromboembolism, anaemia, abnormal liver function test result, high platelet count, visited doctor in the past year with either appetite loss, unexpected weight loss, or breathlessness. The model had good calibration and high levels of explained variation and discrimination. In women, the equation explained 55.6% of the variation in time to death (R 2 ), and had very good discrimination-the D statistic was 2.29, and Harrell's C statistic value was 0.85. The corresponding values for men were 53.1%, 2.18, and 0.84. By combining predicted risks of mortality and unplanned hospital admissions, 2.7% of patients (n=13 665) were classified as severely frail, 9.4% (n=46 770) as moderately frail, 43.1% (n=215 253) as mildly frail, and 44.8% (n=223 790) as fit. Conclusions We have developed new equations to predict the short term risk of death in men and women aged 65 or more, taking account of demographic, social, and clinical variables. The equations had good performance on a separate validation cohort. The QMortality equations can be used in conjunction with the QAdmissions equations, to classify patients into four frailty groups (known as QFrailty categories) to enable patients to be identified for further assessment or interventions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
Jaykus, L A
Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data
DeMott, D. L.
Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.
180 ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS ............ oee-eesessese..........182 EFFECTS OF FACILITIES...184 EFFECTS OF APPLICATION OF WATER .................. 191 EFFECTS OF GROUNDWATER PUMPING ........................ 197 AIR QUALITY, NOISE...those involved in conjunctive use planning to more effectively and quickly focus on the necessary tasks. The major elements are described and important
Navon, David; Ehrlich, Baruch
Results of a study with 48 Israeli college students cast doubt on feature integration theory. Subjects searching for a probe in an array of three stimuli in two attention conditions, attention being manipulated by a dual-task requirement, made more conjunction errors than feature errors. (SLD)
Brock, Stephen E.; Louvar Reeves, Melissa A.
Suicide is a leading cause of death among youth ages 10 years and older. Further, recent federal surveillance data suggest the rates of suicidal ideation and behaviors to be increasing. With these facts in mind, in this paper, we examine the school psychologist's role in suicide risk assessment; which assesses the degree to which students, who…
For persons who have followed the environmental movement in the US and in other countries, it comes as no revelation that the general public has been, and remains, quite concerned about environmental hazards. This concern has in turn led to national and local legislation that is intended to protect the environment and public health. In a parallel way, transnational public concerns have fostered international agreements on controlling such environmental hazards as shipments of hazardous wastes and ocean pollution. Over time, as governments have attempted to come to grips with controlling various environmental hazards, the development and use of health riskmore » assessment has become a well-favored practice by government and some private sector agencies. Because health risk assessment is used to ultimately manage environmental hazards that impact the well-being of people, it seems timely to raise the questions of to what extent are ethical considerations incorporated into health risk assessments and risk management actions.« less
Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much
Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca
Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.
Olson, Ingrid R; Page, Katie; Moore, Katherine Sledge; Chatterjee, Anjan; Verfaellie, Mieke
A prominent theory of hippocampal function proposes that the hippocampus is importantly involved in relating or binding together separate pieces of information to form an episodic representation. This hypothesis has only been applied to studies of long-term memory because the paradigmatic view of the hippocampus is that it is not critical for short-term forms of memory. However, relational processing is important in many working memory tasks, especially tasks using visual stimuli. Here, we test the hypothesis that the medial temporal lobes are important for relational memory even over short delays. The task required patients with medial temporal lobe amnesia and controls to remember three objects, locations, or object-location conjunctions over 1 or 8 s delays. The results show that working memory for objects and locations was at normal levels, but that memory for conjunctions was severely impaired at 8 s delays. Additional analyses suggest that the hippocampus per se is critical for accurate conjunction working memory. We propose that the hippocampus is critically involved in memory for conjunctions at both short and long delays.
Olson, Ingrid R.; Page, Katie; Moore, Katherine Sledge; Chatterjee, Anjan; Verfaellie, Mieke
A prominent theory of hippocampal function proposes that the hippocampus is importantly involved in relating or binding together separate pieces of information to form an episodic representation. This hypothesis has only been applied to studies of long-term memory because the paradigmatic view of the hippocampus is that it is not critical for short-term forms of memory. However, relational processing is important in many working memory tasks, especially tasks using visual stimuli. Here, we test the hypothesis that the medial temporal lobes are important for relational memory even over short delays. The task required patients with medial temporal lobe amnesia and controls to remember three objects, locations, or object-location conjunctions over 1 or 8 s delays. The results show that working memory for objects and locations was at normal levels, but that memory for conjunctions was severely impaired at 8 s delays. Additional analyses suggest that the hippocampus per se is critical for accurate conjunction working memory. We propose that the hippocampus is critically involved in memory for conjunctions at both short and long delays. PMID:16641239
Qin, Shuo; Ray, Nicholas R; Ramakrishnan, Nithya; Nashiro, Kaoru; O'Connell, Margaret A; Basak, Chandramallika
Overloading the capacity of visual attention can result in mistakenly combining the various features of an object, that is, illusory conjunctions. We hypothesize that if the two hemispheres separately process visual information by splitting attention, connectivity of corpus callosum-a brain structure integrating the two hemispheres-would predict the degree of illusory conjunctions. In the current study, we assessed two types of illusory conjunctions using a memory-scanning paradigm; the features were either presented across the two opposite hemifields or within the same hemifield. Four objects, each with two visual features, were briefly presented together followed by a probe-recognition and a confidence rating for the recognition accuracy. MRI scans were also obtained. Results indicated that successful recollection during probe recognition was better for across hemifields conjunctions compared to within hemifield conjunctions, lending support to the bilateral advantage of the two hemispheres in visual short-term memory. Age-related differences regarding the underlying mechanisms of the bilateral advantage indicated greater reliance on recollection-based processing in young and on familiarity-based processing in old. Moreover, the integrity of the posterior corpus callosum was more predictive of opposite hemifield illusory conjunctions compared to within hemifield illusory conjunctions, even after controlling for age. That is, individuals with lesser posterior corpus callosum connectivity had better recognition for objects when their features were recombined from the opposite hemifields than from the same hemifield. This study is the first to investigate the role of the corpus callosum in splitting attention between versus within hemifields. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.
Eckstein, M. P.; Thomas, J. P.; Palmer, J.; Shimozaki, S. S.
Recently, quantitative models based on signal detection theory have been successfully applied to the prediction of human accuracy in visual search for a target that differs from distractors along a single attribute (feature search). The present paper extends these models for visual search accuracy to multidimensional search displays in which the target differs from the distractors along more than one feature dimension (conjunction, disjunction, and triple conjunction displays). The model assumes that each element in the display elicits a noisy representation for each of the relevant feature dimensions. The observer combines the representations across feature dimensions to obtain a single decision variable, and the stimulus with the maximum value determines the response. The model accurately predicts human experimental data on visual search accuracy in conjunctions and disjunctions of contrast and orientation. The model accounts for performance degradation without resorting to a limited-capacity spatially localized and temporally serial mechanism by which to bind information across feature dimensions.
Feeney, Aidan; Shafto, Patrick; Dunning, Darren
Recent evidence suggests that the conjunction fallacy observed in people's probabilistic reasoning is also to be found in their evaluations of inductive argument strength. We presented 130 participants with materials likely to produce a conjunction fallacy either by virtue of a shared categorical or a causal relationship between the categories in the argument. We also took a measure of participants' cognitive ability. We observed conjunction fallacies overall with both sets of materials but found an association with ability for the categorical materials only. Our results have implications for accounts of individual differences in reasoning, for the relevance theory of induction, and for the recent claim that causal knowledge is important in inductive reasoning.
Moudgal, Chandrika J; Garrahan, Kevin; Brady-Roberts, Eletha; Gavrelis, Naida; Arbogast, Michelle; Dun, Sarah
The toxicity value database of the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Homeland Security Research Center has been in development since 2004. The toxicity value database includes a compilation of agent property, toxicity, dose-response, and health effects data for 96 agents: 84 chemical and radiological agents and 12 biotoxins. The database is populated with multiple toxicity benchmark values and agent property information from secondary sources, with web links to the secondary sources, where available. A selected set of primary literature citations and associated dose-response data are also included. The toxicity value database offers a powerful means to quickly and efficiently gather pertinent toxicity and dose-response data for a number of agents that are of concern to the nation's security. This database, in conjunction with other tools, will play an important role in understanding human health risks, and will provide a means for risk assessors and managers to make quick and informed decisions on the potential health risks and determine appropriate responses (e.g., cleanup) to agent release. A final, stand alone MS ACESSS working version of the toxicity value database was completed in November, 2007.
Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...
Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John
Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for threemore » water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.« less
Risk assessment is a process that defines the adverse health consequences of exposure to toxic or pathogenic agents. hen used in regulatory decision making, risk assessment is an important component of risk management, which "combines the risk assessment with the directives of re...
Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S
The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K
Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.
Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I
This assessment will focus on the ecological hazards that may be associated with ATO use in flame retardants. Because ATO’s use in PET plastics was previously evaluated and determined to present minimal concerns for human health and the environment (EU, 2008), this use scenario will not be evaluated here. Human health risks have been evaluated previously and will be summarized in this assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.
Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja
Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).
Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja
Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.
Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja
Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800
Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: email@example.com; Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen; Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca
The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidancemore » and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.« less
Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M
Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.
Kong, Lingyue; Zhang, John X; Zhang, Yongwei
The present study used an online grammaticality judgment task to examine whether Chinese discontinuous correlative conjunctions are psychologically real in mental lexicon. High- and low-frequency discontinuous correlative conjunctions were compared with random combinations differing in combination frequencies but matched for constituent word frequency. Forty graduate students participated in the study. Results showed that responses were faster and more accurate for high-frequency correlative conjunctions than low-frequency ones, but the effects were absent for random combinations. The results indicate that Chinese discontinuous correlative conjunctions have psychological reality in mental lexicon in addition to the representation of their constituent words, and that grammatical functions of correlative conjunctions may be a critical factor for the formation of such holistic representations. © The Author(s) 2016.
Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad
E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.
Wolt, Jeffrey D
Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization. PMID:19883509
Leonardi, Andrea; Castegnaro, Angela; Valerio, Alvise La Gloria; Lazzarini, Daniela
To analyse the most recently published studies on the prevalence of allergic conjunctivitis alone or in association with allergic rhinitis, and the clinical and demographic aspects of the disease. Allergic conjunctivitis or conjunctival symptoms are present in 30-71% of patients with allergic rhinitis. Allergic conjunctivitis alone has been estimated in 6-30% of the general population and in up to 30% in children alone or in association with allergic rhinitis. Seasonal allergic conjunctivitis is the most frequent form; however, studies from tertiary, ophthalmology referral centers report that the chronic forms, such as vernal and atopic keratoconjunctivitis, are the most frequently seen by ophthalmologists. A recent large survey performed at a national level involving 304 ophthalmologists showed that the majority of patients with allergic conjunctivitis suffer annually of few episodes of mild ,intermittent conjunctivitis. However, 30% of patients are affected by frequent episodes with intense and persistent symptoms. Treatment is frequently not appropriate. Even though allergic conjunctivitis is often associated to allergic rhinitis, epidemiology studies frequently do not include specific ophthalmological evaluations. An understanding of allergic conjunctivitis disease, its prevalence, demographics and treatment paradigms will provide important information towards understanding its pharmacoeconomics and burden on the national health systems.
Landis, Wayne G
This article addresses the application of ecological risk assessment at the regional scale to the prediction of impacts due to invasive or nonindigenous species (NIS). The first section describes risk assessment, the decision-making process, and introduces regional risk assessment. A general conceptual model for the risk assessment of NIS is then presented based upon the regional risk assessment approach. Two diverse examples of the application of this approach are presented. The first example is based upon the dynamics of introduced plasmids into bacteria populations. The second example is the application risk assessment approach to the invasion of a coastal marine site of Cherry Point, Washington, USA by the European green crab. The lessons learned from the two examples demonstrate that assessment of the risks of invasion of NIS will have to incorporate not only the characteristics of the invasive species, but also the other stresses and impacts affecting the region of interest.
EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.
Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian
Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.
Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.
Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.
Looman, Jan; Abracen, Jeffrey
There has been relatively little research on the degree to which measures of lifetime history of substance abuse add to the prediction of risk based on actuarial measures alone among sexual offenders. This issue is of relevance in that a history of substance abuse is related to relapse to substance using behavior. Furthermore, substance use has been found to be related to recidivism among sexual offenders. To investigate whether lifetime history of substance abuse adds to prediction over and above actuarial instruments alone, several measures of substance abuse were administered in conjunction with the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). The SORAG was found to be the most accurate actuarial instrument for the prediction of serious recidivism (i.e., sexual or violent) among the sample included in the present investigation. Complete information, including follow-up data, were available for 250 offenders who attended the Regional Treatment Centre Sex Offender Treatment Program (RTCSOTP). The Michigan Alcohol Screening Test (MAST) and the Drug Abuse Screening Test (DAST) were used to assess lifetime history of substance abuse. The results of logistic regression procedures indicated that both the SORAG and the MAST independently added to the prediction of serious recidivism. The DAST did not add to prediction over the use of the SORAG alone. Implications for both the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders are discussed.
Recent advances in genetic toxicity (mutagenicity) testing methods and in approaches to performing risk assessment are prompting a renewed effort to harmonize genotoxicity risk assessment across the world. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first published Guidelines fo...
Labrador Velandia, S; García Lagarto, E; Saornil, M A; García Álvarez, C; Cuello, R; Diezhandino, P
The case is presented of a 43 year-old male patient with chronic follicular conjunctivitis, negative bacterial serology, and refractory to local treatment. The incisional biopsy performed showed to be consistent with reactive lymphoid hyperplasia. A year later, a new incisional biopsy showed follicular lymphoma, with no systemic involvement, and he was treated with local radiotherapy. When a chronic follicular conjunctivitis is refractory to treatment, it is essential to perform an incisional biopsy to establish the histopathological diagnosis that can range from chronic inflammation, reactive lymphoid hyperplasia to lymphoma. Follicular lymphoma is rare among conjunctival lymphomas, and the staging is indispensable for the correct therapeutic approach. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted
Morrill, Patricia W
This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.
Driver, J; McLeod, P; Dienes, Z
Feature integration theory has recently been revised with two proposals that visual conjunction search can be parallel under some circumstances--either because items with nontarget features are inhibited, or because items with target features are excited. We examined whether excitatory or inhibitory guidance controlled conjunction search for an X oscillating in one direction among Os oscillating in that direction and Xs oscillating in another. Search was affected by whether items oscillated in phase with each other, and it was exceptionally difficult when items with target motion moved out of phase with each other and items with nontarget motion moved out of phase. The results suggest that conjunction search can be guided both by excitation of target features and by inhibition of nontarget features.
Hanson, R. Karl
Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…
Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...
Dent, Kevin; Allen, Harriet A; Braithwaite, Jason J; Humphreys, Glyn W
We used a probe-dot procedure to examine the roles of excitatory attentional guidance and distractor suppression in search for movement-form conjunctions. Participants in Experiment 1 completed a conjunction (moving X amongst moving Os and static Xs) and two single-feature (moving X amongst moving Os, and static X amongst static Os) conditions. "Active" participants searched for the target, whereas "passive" participants viewed the displays without responding. Subsequently, both groups located (left or right) a probe dot appearing in either an occupied or an unoccupied location. In the conjunction condition, the active group located probes presented on static distractors more slowly than probes presented on moving distractors, reversing the direction of the difference found within the passive group. This disadvantage for probes on static items was much stronger in conjunction than in single-feature search. The same pattern of results was replicated in Experiment 2, which used a go/no-go procedure. Experiment 3 extended the go/no-go procedure to the case of search for a static target and revealed increased probe localisation times as a consequence of active search, primarily for probes on moving distractor items. The results demonstrated attentional guidance by inhibition of distractors in conjunction search.
Morabito, D.; Hastrup, R.
During the initial phase of the human exploration of Mars, a reliable communications link to and from Earth will be required. The direct link can easily be maintained during most of the 780-day Earth-Mars synodic period. However, during periods in which the direct Earth-Mars link encounters increased intervening charged particles during superior solar conjunctions of Mars, the resultant effects are expected to corrupt the data signals to varying degrees. The purpose of this article is to explore possible strategies, provide recommendations, and identify options for communicating over this link during periods of solar conjunctions. A significant improvement in telemetry data return can be realized by using the higher frequency 32 GHz (Ka-band), which is less susceptible to solar effects. During the era of the onset of probable human exploration of Mars, six superior conjunctions were identified from 2015 to 2026. For five of these six conjunctions, where the signal source is not occulted by the disk of the Sun, continuous communications with Mars should be achievable. Only during the superior conjunction of 2023 is the signal source at Mars expected to lie behind the disk of the Sun for about one day and within two solar radii (0. 5 deg) for about three days.
Remington, Benjamin C.
Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.
Dorsey, Shannon; Mustillo, Sarah A; Farmer, Elizabeth M Z; Elbogen, Eric
This article focuses on caseworkers' assessments of risk of maltreatment recurrence among families in contact with social services. Specifically, the article has two primary goals: (1) to examine the association between caseworkers' risk assessments and demographic, child, parent and family-level risk factors; and (2) to examine agreement between caseworkers' risk assessments and any subsequent report, or reports, of maltreatment. Data are from the baseline, 12-month, and 18-month assessments of the National Survey for Child and Adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW), a nationally representative sample of youth and families who were the subjects of allegations of maltreatment investigated by child welfare agencies. The sample consisted of a subset of NSCAW participants: cases with a report of child physical abuse or neglect who were not placed in out-of-home care (N=2,139). Analyses indicated that parent-level risk factors and a prior report of maltreatment were most strongly associated with caseworkers' assessments of risk for both physical abuse and neglect cases. A smaller set of factors, which varied by the type of maltreatment, were associated with a subsequent report of maltreatment. Despite some overlap in correlates of risk assessment and subsequent reports, analyses indicated that agreement between caseworkers' assessments of risk and re-reports was low. Findings suggest that although caseworkers' assessments were associated with a limited set of risk factors from the literature, few of these factors also were associated with a recurrent report of maltreatment. Correspondence between caseworkers' assessments of risk and a subsequent report of maltreatment was low, suggesting that considerable work may be needed to improve accuracy and identification of cases most at risk. This study provides information to assist caseworkers, administrators, and policymakers in thinking critically about risk assessment policies and procedures. Although caseworkers' assessments of
Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.
Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree
Higgins, Agnes; Doyle, Louise; Downes, Carmel; Morrissey, Jean; Costello, Paul; Brennan, Michael; Nash, Michael
Risk assessment and safety planning are considered a cornerstone of mental health practice, yet limited research exists into how mental health nurses conceptualize 'risk' and how they engage with risk assessment and safety planning. The aim of the present study was to explore mental health nurses' practices and confidence in risk assessment and safety planning. A self-completed survey was administered to 381 mental health nurses in Ireland. The findings indicate that nurses focus on risk to self and risk to others, with the risk of suicide, self-harm, substance abuse, and violence being most frequently assessed. Risk from others and 'iatrogenic' risk were less frequently considered. Overall, there was limited evidence of recovery-oriented practice in relation to risk. The results demonstrate a lack of meaningful engagement with respect to collaborative safety planning, the identification and inclusion of protective factors, and the inclusion of positive risk-taking opportunities. In addition, respondents report a lack of confidence working with positive risk taking and involving family/carers in the risk-assessment and safety-planning process. Gaps in knowledge about risk-assessment and safety-planning practice, which could be addressed through education, are identified, as are the implications of the findings for practice and research. © 2015 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.
Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.
Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.
Väänänen, Kristiina; Kauppila, Tommi; Mäkinen, Jari; Leppänen, Matti T; Lyytikäinen, Merja; Akkanen, Jarkko
The mining industry is a common source of environmental metal emissions, which cause long-lasting effects in aquatic ecosystems. Metal risk assessment is challenging due to variations in metal distribution, speciation, and bioavailability. Therefore, seasonal effects must be better understood, especially in boreal regions in which seasonal changes are large. We sampled 4 Finnish lakes and sediments affected by mining for metals and geochemical characteristics in autumn and late winter, to evaluate seasonal changes in metal behavior, the importance of seasonality in risk assessment, and the sensitivity and suitability of different risk assessment methods. We compared metal concentrations in sediment, overlying water, and porewater against environmental quality guidelines (EQGs). We also evaluated the toxicity of metal mixtures using simultaneously extracted metals and an acid volatile sulfides (SEM-AVS) approach together with water quality criteria (US Environmental Protection Agency equilibrium partitioning benchmarks). Finally, site-specific risks for 3 metals (Cu, Ni, Zn) were assessed using 2 biotic ligand models (BLMs). The metal concentrations in the impacted lakes were elevated. During winter stratification, the hypolimnetic O2 saturation levels were low (<6%) and the pH was acidic (3.5-6.5); however, abundant O2 (>89%) and neutral pH (6.1-7.5) were found after the autumnal water overturn. Guidelines were the most conservative benchmark for showing an increased risk of toxicity in the all of the lakes. The situation remained stable between seasons. On the other hand, SEM-AVS, equilibrium partition sediment benchmarks (ESBs), and BLMs provided a clearer distinction between lakes and revealed a seasonal variation in risk among some of the lakes, which evidenced a higher risk during late winter. If a sediment risk assessment is based on the situation in the autumn, the overall risk may be underestimated. It is advisable to carry out sampling and risk assessment
Craig, Leam A; Rettenberger, Martin
Case formulations (CF) have been the cornerstone of effective practice in clinical psychology since the 1950s and now form one of the core competencies in clinical and forensic assessment. The use of CFs within forensic settings is becoming more relevant when working with offenders who have experienced significant trauma, suffered from personality disorder, and have displayed sexually abusive behavior. Furthermore, most North American and European jurisdictions insist that expert witnesses adopt an idiosyncratic approach to risk assessment and consider the characteristics of the individual as part of a wider formulation of the problem behavior. This article focuses specifically on CF incorporating risk assessment procedures of sexual offenders. While empirical support for the use of risk analysis and formulation in managing offending behavior generally, and sexual offending behavior in particular, is limited, there is mounting evidence to suggest that CF can improve understanding of an individual's problem sexual behaviors. We argue that by integrating risk formulations into the CF provides a conceptually robust link between the etiologically development of the problem sexual behavior and effective assessment and risk management of sexual offenders. As forensic treatment programs increasingly moved toward strength-based approaches, in keeping with the Risk-Need-Responsivity principles Andrews and Bonta (2004), and the Good Lives Model Ward and Stewart (Prof Psychol Res Pract 34:353-60, 2003) of offender rehabilitation, the use of CFs in the assessment, treatment, and management of sexual offenders is indispensable. We present an etiological framework for understanding risk in an individual sexual offender by integrating a case formulation model to include the use of (static, stable, and acute) actuarial and clinical risk assessment measures as well as protective risk factors, referred to as the CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA) model.
Chamis, C. C.
Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.
Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip
Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.
Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis
We propose a filter bank consisting of an ordinary current-state extended Kalman filter, and two similar but constrained filters: one is constrained by a null hypothesis that the miss distance between two conjuncting spacecraft is inside their combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one is constrained by an alternative complementary hypothesis. The unconstrained filter is the basis of an initial screening for close approaches of interest. Once the initial screening detects a possibly risky conjunction, the unconstrained filter also governs measurement editing for all three filters, and predicts the time of closest approach. The constrained filters operate only when conjunctions of interest occur. The computed likelihoods of the innovations of the two constrained filters form a ratio for a Wald sequential probability ratio test. The Wald test guides risk mitigation maneuver decisions based on explicit false alarm and missed detection criteria. Since only current-state Kalman filtering is required to compute the innovations for the likelihood ratio, the present approach does not require the mapping of probability density forward to the time of closest approach. Instead, the hard-body constraint manifold is mapped to the filter update time by applying a sigma-point transformation to a projection function. Although many projectors are available, we choose one based on Lambert-style differential correction of the current-state velocity. We have tested our method using a scenario based on the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission, scheduled for launch in late 2014. This mission involves formation flight in highly elliptical orbits of four spinning spacecraft equipped with antennas extending 120 meters tip-to-tip. Eccentricities range from 0.82 to 0.91, and close approaches generally occur in the vicinity of perigee, where rapid changes in geometry may occur. Testing the method using two 12,000-case Monte Carlo simulations, we found the
Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.
The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.
Graham, J D
This article traces the evolution of risk assessment as an essential analytical tool in the federal government. In many programs and agencies, decisions cannot be made without the benefit of information from risk assessment. Although this analytical tool influences important public health and economic decisions, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the day-to-day practice of risk assessment. The article describes the sources of dissatisfaction that have been voiced by scientists, regulators, interest groups and ordinary citizens. Problems include the use of arbitrary exposure scenarios, the misuse of the 'carcinogen' label, the excessive reliance on animal cancer tests, the lack of formal uncertainty analysis the low priority assigned to noncancer endpoints, the poor communication of risk estimates and the neglect of inequities in the distribution of risk. Despite these limitations, the article argues that more danger rests in efforts to make decisions without any risk assessment. Recent Congressional and Administration interest in risk assessment is encouraging because it offers promise to learn from past mistakes and set in motion steps to enhance the risk assessment process.
Suter II, G.W.
The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management.more » It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.« less
Axelrad, Daniel A.; Bahadori, Tina; Bussard, David; Cascio, Wayne E.; Deener, Kacee; Dix, David; Thomas, Russell S.; Kavlock, Robert J.; Burke, Thomas A.
Preventing adverse health effects of environmental chemical exposure is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and effects of environmentally induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Considering these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. PMID:28520487
Harris, S.P.; Stover, R.L.; Hashimoto, P.S.
Natural phenomena analyses were performed on the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations were made to determine the risks resulting from earthquakes, high winds, and tornadoes. Analytic methods in conjunction with field evaluations and an earthquake experience data base evaluation methods were used to provide more realistic results in a shorter amount of time. Plant modifications completed in preparation for HFIR restart and potential future enhancements are discussed. 5 figs.
Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.
ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the ECOTOXicology Database (ECOTOX; Risk assessment of ritual use of oral dimethyltryptamine (DMT) and harmala alkaloids.
Gable, Robert S
To extend previous reviews by assessing the acute systemic toxicity and psychological hazards of a dimethyltryptamine and beta-carboline brew (ayahuasca/hoasca) used in religious ceremonies. A systematic literature search, supplemented by interviews with ceremony participants. No laboratory animal models were located that tested the acute toxicity or the abuse potential of ayahuasca. Separate animal studies of the median lethal dose of dimethyltryptamine (DMT) and of several harmala alkaloids indicated that a lethal dose of these substances in humans is probably greater than 20 times the typical ceremonial dose. Adverse health effects may occur from casual use of ayahuasca, particularly when serotonergic substances are used in conjunction. DMT is capable of inducing aversive psychological reactions or transient psychotic episodes that resolve spontaneously in a few hours. There was no evidence that ayahuasca has substantial or persistent abuse potential. Long-term psychological benefits have been documented when ayahuasca is used in a well-established social context. A decoction of DMT and harmala alkaloids used in religious ceremonies has a safety margin comparable to codeine, mescaline or methadone. The dependence potential of oral DMT and the risk of sustained psychological disturbance are minimal.
The Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office (ECAO) in Cincinnati has developed health risk assessment methods for chronic exposure to single chemical from a single route of exposure. Risk assessments for carcinogens associated an exposure level with a particular incidence of...
Homaifar, Beeta; Matarazzo, Bridget; Wortzel, Hal S
This column is the second in a series presenting a model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient. As discussed in the first part of the series, the model involves several elements including augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. This column explores in more detail how to augment clinical risk assessment with structured instruments. Unstructured clinical interviews have the potential to miss important aspects of suicide risk assessment. By augmenting the free-form clinical interview with structured instruments that demonstrate reliability and validity, a more nuanced and multifaceted approach to suicide risk assessment is achieved. Incorporating structured instruments into practice also serves a medicolegal function, since these instruments may become a living part of the medical record, establishing baseline levels of suicidal thoughts and behaviors and facilitating future clinical determinations regarding safety needs. We describe several instruments used in a multidisciplinary suicide consultation service, each of which has demonstrated relevance to suicide risk assessment and screening, ease of administration, and strong psychometric properties. In addition, we emphasize the importance of viewing suicide risk assessment as an ongoing process rather than as a singular event. Finally, we discuss special considerations in the evolving practice of risk assessment.
Carter, Jace A.; Thomas, Michael; Goswami, Tarun; Fecke, Ted
Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotor design certification practices risk assessment using a probabilistic framework focused on only the life-limiting defect location of a component. This method generates conservative approximations of the operational risk. The first section of this article covers a discretization method, which allows for a transition from this relative risk to an absolute risk where the component is discretized into regions called zones. General guidelines were established for the zone-refinement process based on the stress gradient topology in order to reach risk convergence. The second section covers a risk assessment method for predicting the total fatigue life due to fatigue induced damage. The total fatigue life incorporates a dual mechanism approach including the crack initiation life and propagation life while simultaneously determining the associated initial flaw sizes. A microstructure-based model was employed to address uncertainties in material response and relate crack initiation life with crack size, while propagation life was characterized large crack growth laws. The two proposed methods were applied to a representative Inconel 718 turbine disk. The zone-based method reduces the conservative approaches, while showing effects of feature-based inspection on the risk assessment. In the fatigue damage assessment, the predicted initial crack distribution was found to be the most sensitive probabilistic parameter and can be used to establish an enhanced inspection planning.
0721 TITLE: Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Kathleen F. Arcaro...Annual 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15 Sept 2008 - 14 Sept 2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk 5a...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to determine if exfoliated epithelial cells present in breast milk can be used to assess
Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.
The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.
Coronary heart disease (CHD) poses a special challenge for risk assessments. Various kinds of diagnostic or therapeutic procedures, concomitant diseases, risk factors and symptoms need to be connected logically in order to assess the risk of each individual applicant. "Reinsurance manuals" are available to risk assessors in life insurance for this purpose. Using these manuals, the risk assessor can calculate the risk loadings for applicants with specific pre-existing conditions, e.g., CHD. Various tasks thus fall to the reinsurer, which must be able to give grounds for the increased risk loadings, provide the manuals with a process-oriented structure and simultaneously support the primary insurer's business objectives via an intelligent risk assessment. Taking CHD as an example, the following article explains how these tasks can be solved with the aid of medical and mathematical approaches, and how the insurability of applicants with CHD can be extended via the re-evaluation of risks.
Gonzalez, Deborah Oliveira; Cáceres, Ana Manhani; Bento-Gaz, Ana Carolina Paiva; Befi-Lopes, Debora Maria
To verify the use of conjunctions in narratives, and to investigate the influence of stimuli's complexity over the type of conjunctions used by children with specific language impairment (SLI) and children with typical language development. Participants were 40 children (20 with typical language development and 20 with SLI) with ages between 7 and 10 years, paired by age range. Fifteen stories with increasing of complexity were used to obtain the narratives; stories were classified into mechanical, behavioral and intentional, and each of them was represented by four scenes. Narratives were analyzed according to occurrence and classification of conjunctions. Both groups used more coordinative than subordinate conjunctions, with significant decrease in the use of conjunctions in the discourse of SLI children. The use of conjunctions varied according to the type of narrative: for coordinative conjunctions, both groups differed only between intentional and behavioral narratives, with higher occurrence in behavioral ones; for subordinate conjunctions, typically developing children's performance did not show differences between narratives, while SLI children presented fewer occurrences in intentional narratives, which was different from other narratives. Both groups used more coordinative than subordinate conjunctions; however, typically developing children presented more conjunctions than SLI children. The production of children with SLI was influenced by stimulus, since more complex narratives has less use of subordinate conjunctions.
Mullins, Joanna M; Even, Joshua B; White, Joel M
An evidence-based periodontal disease risk assessment and diagnosis system has been developed and combined with a clinical decision support and management program to improve treatment and measure patient outcomes. There is little agreement on a universally accepted periodontal risk assessment, periodontal diagnosis, and treatment management tool and their incorporation into dental practice to improve patient care. This article highlights the development and use of a practical periodontal management and risk assessment program that can be implemented in dental settings. The approach taken by Willamette Dental Group to develop a periodontal disease risk assessment, periodontal diagnosis, and treatment management tool is described using evidence-based best practices. With goals of standardized treatment interventions while maintaining personalized care and improved communication, this process is described to facilitate its incorporation into other dental settings. Current electronic health records can be leveraged to enhance patient-centered care through the use of risk assessments and standardized guidelines to more effectively assess, diagnose, and treat patients to improve outcomes. Dental hygienists, and other committed providers, with their emphasis on prevention of periodontal disease can be principal drivers in creation and implementation of periodontal risk assessments and personalized treatment planning. Willamette Dental Group believes that such evidence-based tools can advance dentistry to new diagnostic and treatment standards. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Sheppard, Justine Joan; Malandraki, Georgia A; Pifer, Paula; Cuff, Jill; Troche, Michelle; Hemsley, Bronwyn; Balandin, Susan; Mishra, Avinash; Hochman, Roberta
Risk assessments are needed to identify adults with intellectual and developmental disability (IDD) at high risk of choking and pneumonia. To describe the development and validation of the Choking Risk Assessment (CRA) and the Pneumonia Risk Assessment (PRA) for adults with IDD. Test items were identified through literature review and focus groups. Five-year retrospective chart reviews identified a positive choking group (PCG), a negative choking group (NCG), a positive pneumonia group (PPG), and a negative pneumonia group (NPG). Participants were tested with the CRA and PRA by clinicians blind to these testing conditions. The CRA and PRA differentiated the PCG (n=93) from the NCG (n=526) and the PPG (n=63) from the NPG (n=209) with high specificity (0.91 and 0.92 respectively) and moderate to average sensitivity (0.53 and 0.62 respectively). Further analyses revealed associations between clinical diagnoses of dysphagia and choking (p=0.043), and pneumonia (p<0.001). The CRA and PRA are reliable, valid risk indicators for choking and pneumonia in adults with IDD. Precautions for mitigating choking and pneumonia risks can be applied selectively thus avoiding undue impacts on quality of life and unnecessary interventions for low risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Yanagisawa, S; Nagaki, Y; Hiraki, S; Kadoi, C; Hayasaka, S; Teranishi, H
To evaluate the ocular findings in patients with Japanese pear (Pyrus pyrifolia Nakai) pollinosis. Twenty-two farmers working on artificial pollination in Japanese pear orchards were examined for ocular itching, conjunctival conditions, presence of eosinophils in the conjunctival specimen, and nasal symptoms. Serum IgE antibody to Japanese pear pollen was determined in 16 farmers. Of the 22 subjects, 3 (Nos. 3, 4, and 13) exhibited ocular itching, conjunctival hyperemia, eosinophils in the conjunctival specimen, and positive serum IgE antibodies to Japanese pear pollen. In these patients, the conjunctivitis disappeared after treatment with topical cromoglycate. The present study demonstrated that seasonal allergic conjunctivitis may be induced by Japanese pear pollen (entomophilous flower pollen).
An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.
EPA released the final report entitled, A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental Exposures to Children, which examines the impact of potential exposures during developmental lifestages and subsequent lifestages, while emphasizing the iterative nature of the analysis phase with a multidisciplinary team. Major findings and conclusions: This report outlines the framework in which mode of action(s) (MOA) can be considered across life stages. The framework is based upon existing approaches adopted in the Framework on Cumulative Risk Assessment and identifies existing guidance, guidelines and policy papers that relate to children's health risk assessment. It emphasizes the importance of an iterative approach between hazard, dose response, and exposure analyses. In addition, it includes discussion of principles for weight of evidence consideration across life stages for the hazard characterization database.Key science/assessment issues:This framework addresses the questions of why and how an improved children's health risk assessment will strengthen the overall risk assessment process across the Agency. This approach improves the scientific explanation of children's risk and will add value by: 1) providing for a more complete evaluation of the potential for vulnerability at different life stages, including a focus on the underlying biological events and critical developmental periods for incorporating MOA considerations; 2) evaluating of the potential fo
Smith-Millman, Marissa K.; Flaspohler, Paul D.; Maras, Melissa A.; Splett, Joni Williams; Warmbold, Kristy; Dinnen, Hannah; Luebbe, Aaron
Some universal behavioural screening processes require classroom teachers to complete a risk assessment measure on each student in their class, leading to a possible, but unexplored, problem: risk assessment scores may be influenced by the teacher completing the measure. The current study investigated whether teacher-reported risk assessment…
1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a
Singh, Jay P.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Sellers, Brian G.; Hylton, Tatiana; Tirotti, Melissa; Van Dorn, Richard A.
Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention. PMID:25346561
Elliott, R; Dolan, R J
Short-term visual memory has been widely studied in humans and animals using delayed matching paradigms. The present study used positron emission tomography (PET) to determine the neural substrates of delayed matching to sample for complex abstract patterns over a 5-s delay. More specifically, the study assessed any differential neural response associated with remembering individual perceptual properties (color only and shape only) compared to conjunction between these properties. Significant activations associated with short-term visual memory (all memory conditions compared to perceptuomotor control) were observed in extrastriate cortex, medial and lateral parietal cortex, anterior cingulate, inferior frontal gyrus, and the thalamus. Significant deactivations were observed throughout the temporal cortex. Although the requirement to remember color compared to shape was associated with subtly different patterns of blood flow, the requirement to remember perceptual conjunctions between these features was not associated with additional specific activations. These data suggest that visual memory over a delay of the order of 5 s is mainly dependent on posterior perceptual regions of the cortex, with the exact regions depending on the perceptual aspect of the stimuli to be remembered.
...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... environmental assessment, or plant pest risk assessment, contact Ms. Cindy Eck at (301) 734-0667; email: cynthia... event MON 87701 is unlikely to pose a plant pest risk. APHIS has also prepared a draft environmental...
Nucci, Paolo; Sacchi, Matteo; Pichi, Francesco; Allegri, Pia; Serafino, Massimiliano; Dello Strologo, Marika; De Cillà, Stefano; Villani, Edoardo
To investigate, in pediatric patients, the rate and clinical features of unspecific conjunctivitis of unknown origin (UCUO) and to evaluate their relationship with air pollution. From January to December 2013, we consecutively screened all of the patients referred for symptomatic ocular surface inflammation. Inclusion criteria for this study were age<14, diagnosis of conjunctivitis, residence in the Lombardia region. UCUO was defined as conjunctivitis of unknown etiology, not clearly due to infection or allergy. Based on addresses of residence and sites of 73 automatic air pollution monitoring stations (locations and mean annual particulate matter (PM) 10 and 2.5 concentrations were provided by the Regional Environmental Protection Agency (ARPA) Lombardia), each patient was paired with a value of exposure to PM. Relationship between UCUO and PM exposure was investigated. A total of 132 of 251 screened children were included in this study. UCUO was diagnosed in 48/132 patients. The most common symptoms and signs in UCUO children were foreign body sensation (37/48) and conjunctival hyperemia (45/48), respectively. PM10 exposure value was significantly higher in UCUO (33.5±5.4µg/m3) compared to other groups (P<0.001, ANOVA). UCUO/total conjunctivitis ratio was significantly higher in residents in areas with more than 75 (Q3) days/year exceeding 50µg/m3 (EU legal limit) compared to areas with less than 45 (Q1) exceedances/year: 24/39: 61% vs 8/35: 23%; P>0.001, Chi-square test. Our data suggest a relationship between UCUO and air pollution. This form of conjunctivitis is not rare in pediatric patients and may be the most frequent in most polluted areas.
Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla
Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.
Chiras, Daniel D.
Risk assessment (the identification of hazards, the determination of the probability of a hazardous event occurring, and an estimation of the severity of such an event's occurrence) is suggested as a technique to be used to analyze current issues in environmental education in an objective manner. (PEB)
Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L
Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a
Bobba, Samantha; Devlin, Connor; Di Girolamo, Nick; Wakefield, Denis; McCluskey, Peter; Chan, Elsie; Daniell, Mark; Watson, Stephanie
This study aimed to determine the incidence, clinical features and management of cicatrising conjunctivitis in Australia and New Zealand, also enabling comparison with data from the United Kingdom. A prospective surveillance study was conducted over 17 months via the Australian and New Zealand Ophthalmic Surveillance Unit with a one-year follow-up period. Practicing ophthalmologists on the Surveillance Unit's database were asked to report recently diagnosed cases of cicatrising conjunctivitis on a monthly basis. Initial and follow-up questionnaires were sent to ophthalmologists who had reported positive cases to obtain demographic and clinical data. The minimum incidence of cicatrising conjunctivitis was calculated based on cases reported during the study period and from population data. During the 17-month study period (December 2011-April 2013), 56 cases of cicatrising conjunctivitis were reported. Data was obtained for 35 cases (62%) with a mean age of 74 years (range, 28-94 years). The most common aetiologies were ocular mucus membrane pemphigoid (n = 18 cases, 51.4%), Stevens-Johnson Syndrome (n = 3, 8.6%) and graft versus host disease (n = 3, 8.6%). The minimum incidence of cicatrising conjunctivitis in Australia and New Zealand was 1.5 per million, comparable to incidence data from the United Kingdom. This study is the first to prospectively record the incidence of cicatrising conjunctivitis in Australia and New Zealand and the second worldwide. It provides novel data on demographics and management of cicatrising conjunctivitis, as reported by treating ophthalmologists.
"Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…
Duzgun, H. S. B.
Rock slides can be better managed by systematic risk assessments. Any risk assessment methodology for rock slides involves identification of rock slide risk components, which are hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability. For a quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment for rock slides, a mathematical value the risk has to be computed and evaluated. The quantitative evaluation of risk for rock slides enables comparison of the computed risk with the risk of other natural and/or human-made hazards and providing better decision support and easier communication for the decision makers. A quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment procedure involves: Danger Identification, Hazard Assessment, Elements at Risk Identification, Vulnerability Assessment, Risk computation, Risk Evaluation. On the other hand, the steps of this procedure require adaptation of existing or development of new implementation methods depending on the type of landslide, data availability, investigation scale and nature of consequences. In study, a generic semi-quantitative risk assessment (SQRA) procedure for rock slides is proposed. The procedure has five consecutive stages: Data collection and analyses, hazard assessment, analyses of elements at risk and vulnerability and risk assessment. The implementation of the procedure for a single rock slide case is illustrated for a rock slope in Norway. Rock slides from mountain Ramnefjell to lake Loen are considered to be one of the major geohazards in Norway. Lake Loen is located in the inner part of Nordfjord in Western Norway. Ramnefjell Mountain is heavily jointed leading to formation of vertical rock slices with height between 400-450 m and width between 7-10 m. These slices threaten the settlements around Loen Valley and tourists visiting the fjord during summer season, as the released slides have potential of creating tsunami. In the past, several rock slides had been recorded from the Mountain Ramnefjell between 1905 and 1950. Among them
Cucinotta, Francis A.
Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.
Munday, Rex; Reeve, John
Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039
Becker, Stefanie I; Horstmann, Gernot
Previous research on the priming effect in conjunction search has shown that repeating the target and distractor features across displays speeds mean response times but does not improve search efficiency: Repetitions do not reduce the set size effect-that is, the effect of the number of distractor items-but only modulate the intercept of the search function. In the present study, we investigated whether priming modulates search efficiency when a conjunctively defined target randomly changes between red and green. The results from an eyetracking experiment show that repeating the target across trials reduced the set size effect and, thus, did enhance search efficiency. Moreover, the probability of selecting the target as the first item in the display was higher when the target-distractor displays were repeated across trials than when they changed. Finally, red distractors were selected more frequently than green distractors when the previous target had been red (and vice versa). Taken together, these results indicate that priming in conjunction search modulates processes concerned with guiding attention to the target, by assigning more attentional weight to features sharing the previous target's color.
Wedell, Douglas H; Moro, Rodrigo
Two experiments used within-subject designs to examine how conjunction errors depend on the use of (1) choice versus estimation tasks, (2) probability versus frequency language, and (3) conjunctions of two likely events versus conjunctions of likely and unlikely events. All problems included a three-option format verified to minimize misinterpretation of the base event. In both experiments, conjunction errors were reduced when likely events were conjoined. Conjunction errors were also reduced for estimations compared with choices, with this reduction greater for likely conjuncts, an interaction effect. Shifting conceptual focus from probabilities to frequencies did not affect conjunction error rates. Analyses of numerical estimates for a subset of the problems provided support for the use of three general models by participants for generating estimates. Strikingly, the order in which the two tasks were carried out did not affect the pattern of results, supporting the idea that the mode of responding strongly determines the mode of thinking about conjunctions and hence the occurrence of the conjunction fallacy. These findings were evaluated in terms of implications for rationality of human judgment and reasoning.
Sedda, L; Morley, D W; Braks, M A H; De Simone, L; Benz, D; Rogers, D J
In the context of public health, risk governance (or risk analysis) is a framework for the assessment and subsequent management and/or control of the danger posed by an identified disease threat. Generic frameworks in which to carry out risk assessment have been developed by various agencies. These include monitoring, data collection, statistical analysis and dissemination. Due to the inherent complexity of disease systems, however, the generic approach must be modified for individual, disease-specific risk assessment frameworks. The analysis was based on the review of the current risk assessments of vector-borne diseases adopted by the main Public Health organisations (OIE, WHO, ECDC, FAO, CDC etc…). Literature, legislation and statistical assessment of the risk analysis frameworks. This review outlines the need for the development of a general public health risk assessment method for vector-borne diseases, in order to guarantee that sufficient information is gathered to apply robust models of risk assessment. Stochastic (especially spatial) methods, often in Bayesian frameworks are now gaining prominence in standard risk assessment procedures because of their ability to assess accurately model uncertainties. Risk assessment needs to be addressed quantitatively wherever possible, and submitted with its quality assessment in order to enable successful public health measures to be adopted. In terms of current practice, often a series of different models and analyses are applied to the same problem, with results and outcomes that are difficult to compare because of the unknown model and data uncertainties. Therefore, the risk assessment areas in need of further research are identified in this article. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Augustine, Kurt E.; Camp, Jon J.; Holmes, David R.; Huddleston, Paul M.; Lu, Lichun; Yaszemski, Michael J.; Robb, Richard A.
Failure of the spine's structural integrity from metastatic disease can lead to both pain and neurologic deficit. Fractures that require treatment occur in over 30% of bony metastases. Our objective is to use computed tomography (CT) in conjunction with analytic techniques that have been previously developed to predict fracture risk in cancer patients with metastatic disease to the spine. Current clinical practice for cancer patients with spine metastasis often requires an empirical decision regarding spinal reconstructive surgery. Early image-based software systems used for CT analysis are time consuming and poorly suited for clinical application. The Biomedical Image Resource (BIR) at Mayo Clinic, Rochester has developed an image analysis computer program that calculates from CT scans, the residual load-bearing capacity in a vertebra with metastatic cancer. The Spine Cancer Assessment (SCA) program is built on a platform designed for clinical practice, with a workflow format that allows for rapid selection of patient CT exams, followed by guided image analysis tasks, resulting in a fracture risk report. The analysis features allow the surgeon to quickly isolate a single vertebra and obtain an immediate pre-surgical multiple parallel section composite beam fracture risk analysis based on algorithms developed at Mayo Clinic. The analysis software is undergoing clinical validation studies. We expect this approach will facilitate patient management and utilization of reliable guidelines for selecting among various treatment option based on fracture risk.
Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen
The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310
Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge
Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.
Arguin, M; Joanette, Y; Cavanagh, P
Abstract Brain-damaged subjects who had previously been identified as suffering from a visual attention deficit for contralesional stimulation were tested on a series of visual search tasks. The experiments examined the hypothesis that the processing of single features is preattentive but that feature integration, necessary for the correct perception of conjunctions of features, requires attention (Treisman & Gelade, 1980 Treisman & Sato, 1990). Subjects searched for a feature target (orientation or color) or for a conjunction target (orientation and color) in unilateral displays in which the number of items presented was variable. Ocular fixation was controlled so that trials on which eye movements occurred were cancelled. While brain-damaged subjects with a visual attention disorder (VAD subjects) performed similarly to normal controls in feature search tasks, they showed a marked deficit in conjunction search. Specifically, VAD subjects exhibited an important reduction of their serial search rates for a conjunction target with contralesional displays. In support of Treisman's feature integration theory, a visual attention deficit leads to a marked impairment in feature integration whereas it does not appear to affect feature encoding.
Aerts, Diederik; Arguëlles, Jonito Aerts; Beltran, Lester; Beltran, Lyneth; de Bianchi, Massimiliano Sassoli; Sozzo, Sandro; Veloz, Tomas
The `conjunction fallacy' has been extensively debated by scholars in cognitive science and, in recent times, the discussion has been enriched by the proposal of modeling the fallacy using the quantum formalism. Two major quantum approaches have been put forward: the first assumes that respondents use a two-step sequential reasoning and that the fallacy results from the presence of `question order effects'; the second assumes that respondents evaluate the cognitive situation as a whole and that the fallacy results from the `emergence of new meanings', as an `effect of overextension' in the conceptual conjunction. Thus, the question arises as to determine whether and to what extent conjunction fallacies would result from `order effects' or, instead, from `emergence effects'. To help clarify this situation, we propose to use the World Wide Web as an `information space' that can be interrogated both in a sequential and non-sequential way, to test these two quantum approaches. We find that `emergence effects', and not `order effects', should be considered the main cognitive mechanism producing the observed conjunction fallacies.
BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.
EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.
EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.
EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.
Chan, Ko Ling
The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…
Risk assessments are needed for hundreds to thousands of chemicals, many of which do not have the rich data sets required, for instance, for IRIS or PPRTV assessments. EPA program offices and groups (OLEM, OPP Inerts, OPPT and others) still need to carry out to risk assessments f...
Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele
The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.
Preston, Benjamin L
Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whommore » they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.« less
Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.
Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.
EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.
Takegata, R; Huotilainen, M; Rinne, T; Näätänen, R; Winkler, I
We investigated the relationship between the neuronal populations involved in detecting change in two acoustic features and their conjunction. Equivalent current dipole (ECD) models of the magnetic mismatch negativity (MMNm) generators were calculated for infrequent changes in pitch, perceived sound source location, and the conjunction of these two features. All of these three changes elicited MMNms that were generated in the vicinity of auditory cortex. The location of the ECD best describing the MMNm to the conjunction deviant was anterior to those for the MMNm responses elicited by either one of the constituent features. The present data thus suggest that at least partially separate neuronal populations are involved in detecting change in acoustic features and feature conjunctions.
Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.
The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in themore » risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.« less
Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M
Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ray, Paul S.
Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.
Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Bo Lu; Ronald Fournier; Gericke Cook; Jean J. Turgeon
Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical...
Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves
This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.
Bodelón, Clara; Fallah, Mazyar; Reynolds, John H
The visual system decomposes stimuli into their constituent features, represented by neurons with different feature selectivities. How the signals carried by these feature-selective neurons are integrated into coherent object representations is unknown. To constrain the set of possible integrative mechanisms, we quantified the temporal resolution of perception for color, orientation, and conjunctions of these two features. We find that temporal resolution is measurably higher for each feature than for their conjunction, indicating that time is required to integrate features into a perceptual whole. This finding places temporal limits on the mechanisms that could mediate this form of perceptual integration.
In an effort to standardize academic risk assessment, the NCAA developed the graduation risk overview (GRO) model. Although this model was designed to assess graduation risk, its ability to predict grade-point average (GPA) remained unknown. Therefore, 134 individual risk assessments were made to determine GRO model effectiveness in the…
Potts, Geoffrey F; Wood, Susan M; Kothmann, Delia; Martin, Laura E
Attention directs limited-capacity information processing resources to a subset of available perceptual representations. The mechanisms by which attention selects task-relevant representations for preferential processing are not fully known. Triesman and Gelade's [Triesman, A., Gelade, G., 1980. A feature integration theory of attention. Cognit. Psychol. 12, 97-136.] influential attention model posits that simple features are processed preattentively, in parallel, but that attention is required to serially conjoin multiple features into an object representation. Event-related potentials have provided evidence for this model showing parallel processing of perceptual features in the posterior Selection Negativity (SN) and serial, hierarchic processing of feature conjunctions in the Frontal Selection Positivity (FSP). Most prior studies have been done on conjunctions within one sensory modality while many real-world objects have multimodal features. It is not known if the same neural systems of posterior parallel processing of simple features and frontal serial processing of feature conjunctions seen within a sensory modality also operate on conjunctions between modalities. The current study used ERPs and simultaneously presented auditory and visual stimuli in three task conditions: Attend Auditory (auditory feature determines the target, visual features are irrelevant), Attend Visual (visual features relevant, auditory irrelevant), and Attend Conjunction (target defined by the co-occurrence of an auditory and a visual feature). In the Attend Conjunction condition when the auditory but not the visual feature was a target there was an SN over auditory cortex, when the visual but not auditory stimulus was a target there was an SN over visual cortex, and when both auditory and visual stimuli were targets (i.e. conjunction target) there were SNs over both auditory and visual cortex, indicating parallel processing of the simple features within each modality. In contrast
Powell, Troy C.
Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind ofmore » r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.« less
Lévêque, N; Huguet, P; Norder, H; Chomel, J-J
Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) is an epidemic form of highly contagious conjunctivitis, characterized by conjunctival hemorrhages. The first AHC outbreak was described in 1969 in Ghana, West Africa, and was called Apollo disease, from the Apollo landing on the moon. This outbreak was caused by Enterovirus 70 (EV70) together with a Coxsackievirus A24 (CVA24v) variant, which are the major etiological agents involved in AHC outbreaks worldwide. AHC is known to be directly transmitted by close person-to-person contact or indirectly through soiled ophthalmological materials or unsafe recreational water. Recently, a possible airborne virus spread was suggested which could explain the high transmission rate of the disease. In the absence of a specific antiviral therapy, a rapid diagnosis of the causative agent is required to distinguish AHC due to enteroviruses from other ocular infectious diseases, for there are active drugs, or to quickly implement proper public health measures to limit the extension of the outbreak. However, virus identification remains difficult and time-consuming. Moreover, virological diagnosis is difficult to implement in developing countries where AHC has recently become a major problem for public health. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Infrastructure protection typifies a problem of risk assessment and management in a large-scale system. This study offers a methodological framework to identify, prioritize, assess, and manage risks. It includes the following major considerations: (1...
Saini, Pooja; While, David; Chantler, Khatidja; Windfuhr, Kirsten; Kapur, Navneet
Risk assessment and management of suicidal patients is emphasized as a key component of care in specialist mental health services, but these issues are relatively unexplored in primary care services. To examine risk assessment and management in primary and secondary care in a clinical sample of individuals who were in contact with mental health services and died by suicide. Data collection from clinical proformas, case records, and semistructured face-to-face interviews with general practitioners. Primary and secondary care data were available for 198 of the 336 cases (59%). The overall agreement in the rating of risk between services was poor (overall κ = .127, p = .10). Depression, care setting (after discharge), suicidal ideation at last contact, and a history of self-harm were associated with a rating of higher risk. Suicide prevention policies were available in 25% of primary care practices, and 33% of staff received training in suicide risk assessments. Risk is difficult to predict, but the variation in risk assessment between professional groups may reflect poor communication. Further research is required to understand this. There appears to be a relative lack of suicide risk assessment training in primary care.
Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge
Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…
Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new
Botella, Juan; Privado, Jesús; de Liaño, Beatriz Gil-Gómez; Suero, Manuel
Illusory conjunctions in the time domain are binding errors for features from stimuli presented sequentially but in the same spatial position. A similar experimental paradigm is employed for the attentional blink (AB), an impairment of performance for the second of two targets when it is presented 200-500 msec after the first target. The analysis of errors along the time course of the AB allows the testing of models of illusory conjunctions. In an experiment, observers identified one (control condition) or two (experimental condition) letters in a specified color, so that illusory conjunctions in each response could be linked to specific positions in the series. Two items in the target colors (red and white, embedded in distractors of different colors) were employed in four conditions defined according to whether both targets were in the same or different colors. Besides the U-shaped function for hits, the errors were analyzed by calculating several response parameters reflecting characteristics such as the average position of the responses or the attentional suppression during the blink. The several error parameters cluster in two time courses, as would be expected from prevailing models of the AB. Furthermore, the results match the predictions from Botella, Barriopedro, and Suero's (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 27, 1452-1467, 2001) model for illusory conjunctions.
Carrasco, M; Evert, D L; Chang, I; Katz, S M
The serial pattern found for conjunction visual-search tasks has been attributed to covert attentional shifts, even though the possible contributions of target location have not been considered. To investigate the effect of target location on orientation x color conjunction searches, the target's duration and its position in the display were manipulated. The display was present either until observers responded (Experiment 1), for 104 msec (Experiment 2), or for 62 msec (Experiment 3). Target eccentricity critically affected performance: A pronounced eccentricity effect was very similar for all three experiments; as eccentricity increased, reaction times and errors increased gradually. Furthermore, the set-size effect became more pronounced as target eccentricity increased, and the extent of the eccentricity effect increased for larger set sizes. In addition, according to stepwise regressions, target eccentricity as well as its interaction with set size were good predictors of performance. We suggest that these findings could be explained by spatial-resolution and lateral-inhibition factors. The serial self-terminating hypothesis for orientation x color conjunction searches was evaluated and rejected. We compared the eccentricity effect as well as the extent of the orientation asymmetry in these three conjunction experiments with those found in feature experiments (Carrasco & Katz, 1992). The roles of eye movements, spatial resolution, and covert attention in the eccentricity effect, as well as their implications, are discussed.
Elkovitch, Natasha; Viljoen, Jodi L; Scalora, Mario J; Ullman, Daniel
As courts often rely on clinicians when differentiating between sexually abusive youth at a low versus high risk of reoffense, understanding factors that contribute to accuracy in assessment of risk is imperative. The present study built on existing research by examining (1) the accuracy of clinical judgments of risk made after completing risk assessment instruments, (2) whether instrument-informed clinical judgments made with a high degree of confidence are associated with greater accuracy, and (3) the risk assessment instruments and subscales most predictive of clinical judgments. Raters assessed each youth's (n = 166) risk of reoffending after completing the SAVRY and J-SOAP-II. Raters were not able to predict detected cases of either sexual recidivism or nonsexual violent recidivism above chance, and a high degree of rater confidence was not associated with higher levels of accuracy. Total scores on the J-SOAP-II were predictive of instrument-informed clinical judgments of sexual risk, and total scores on the SAVRY of nonsexual risk.
Bodurtha Smith, Anna Jo; Holzman, Samuel B; Manesh, Reza Sedighi; Perl, Trish M
Outside of the newborn period, development of gonococcal conjunctivitis is rare and predominantly occurs through autoinoculation. We report an unusual case of gonococcal conjunctivitis in a young woman exposed through direct inoculation. A 19-year-old woman presented with purulent ocular discharge, severe pain, and decreased vision unresponsive to topical antibiotics or ganciclovir approximately 3 weeks after accidental ocular exposure to seminal fluid during unprotected oral sex. Cultured ocular drainage grew Neisseria gonorrhea; vaginal and throat cultures were negative. She was successfully treated with ceftriaxone and doxycycline for 10 days. Clinicians should be aware of the potential for vision-threatening gonococcal conjunctivitis from exposure during sexual contact. Copyright © 2016 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Luria, Paolo; Aspinall, Peter A
The aim of this paper is to describe a new approach to major industrial hazard assessment, which has been recently studied by the authors in conjunction with the Italian Environmental Protection Agency ('ARPAV'). The real opportunity for developing a different approach arose from the need of the Italian EPA to provide the Venice Port Authority with an appropriate estimation of major industrial hazards in Porto Marghera, an industrial estate near Venice (Italy). However, the standard model, the quantitative risk analysis (QRA), only provided a list of individual quantitative risk values, related to single locations. The experimental model is based onmore » a multi-criteria approach--the Analytic Hierarchy Process--which introduces the use of expert opinions, complementary skills and expertise from different disciplines in conjunction with quantitative traditional analysis. This permitted the generation of quantitative data on risk assessment from a series of qualitative assessments, on the present situation and on three other future scenarios, and use of this information as indirect quantitative measures, which could be aggregated for obtaining the global risk rate. This approach is in line with the main concepts proposed by the last European directive on Major Hazard Accidents, which recommends increasing the participation of operators, taking the other players into account and, moreover, paying more attention to the concepts of 'urban control', 'subjective risk' (risk perception) and intangible factors (factors not directly quantifiable)« less
Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin
An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.
Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G.; Bos, Peter M. J.
An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models. PMID:29048395
Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen
Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits
The purpose of the guidance document is to provide the site team--risk assessor, remedial project manager (RPM), and community involvement coordinator--with information to improve community involvement in the Superfund risk assessment process. Specifically, the document: provides suggestions for how Superfund staff and community members can work together during the early stages of Superfund cleanup; identifies where, within the framework of the human health risk assessment methodology, community input can augment and improve EPA`s estimates of exposure and risk; recommends questions the site team should ask the community; and illustrates why community involvement is valuable during the human health assessment atmore » Superfund sites.« less
Sun, Xin; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang
This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947
Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang
This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.
Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei
The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.
Nanotechnology is expected to present both benefits and risks to human health and the environment. The assessment of risks related to nanotechnology requires information on the potential for exposure to, and adverse effects of, nanomaterials and their by-products. To help ensure...
Lu, Sijin; Wang, Yeyao; Teng, Yanguo; Yu, Xuan
Soil pollution by Cd, Hg, As, Pb, Cr, Cu, and Zn was characterized in the area of the mining and smelting of metal ores at Guiyang, northeast of Hunan Province. A total of 150 topsoil (0-20 cm) samples were collected in May 2012 with a nominal density of one sample per 4 km(2). High concentrations of heavy metals especially, Cd, Zn, and Pb were found in many of the samples taken from surrounding paddy soil, indicating a certain extent of spreading of heavy metal pollution. Sequential extraction technique and risk assessment code (RAC) were used to study the mobility of chemical forms of heavy metals in the soils and their ecological risk. The results reveal that Cd represents a high ecological risk due to its highest percentage of the exchangeable and carbonate fractions. The metals of Zn and Cu pose a medium risk, and the rest of the metals represent a low environmental risk. The range of the potential ecological risk of soil calculated by risk index (RI) was 123.5~2791.2 and revealed a considerable-high ecological risk in study area especially in the neighboring and surrounding the mining activities area. Additionally, cluster analyses suggested that metals such as Pb, As, Hg, Zn, and Cd could be from the same sources probably related to the acidic drainage and wind transport of dust. Cluster analysis also clearly distinguishes the samples with similar characteristics according to their spatial distribution. The results could be used during the ecological risk screening stage, in conjunction with total concentrations and metal fractionation values to better estimate ecological risk.
Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.
According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.
Giant papillary conjunctivitis is an inflammation of the conjunctiva, which is associated with immunological-allergic disorders, but is difficult to integrate as a defined type of illness. The deposits of contact lenses are responsible in predisposed wearers. They induce a special immune answer to their biochemical ingredients. In addition, roughness of the superficial corneal layers and the conjunctiva, even without any contact lenses after filtrating glaucoma surgery, leads to mechanically induced papillary formations. In former days these symptoms of building giant papillae were seen mostly in wearers of soft hydrogel contact lenses. Nowadays manufacturers have developed contact lens systems with a variety of material components, with an increase of protein and lipid deposits. In combination with the observed non-compliance of wearers regarding lens exchange and contact lens hygiene, GPC is an issue which should be taken into consideration again. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
An age-related associative deficit has been described in visual short-term binding memory tasks. However, separate studies have suggested that ageing disrupts relational binding (to associate distinct items or item and context) more than conjunctive binding (to integrate features within an object). The current study directly compared relational and conjunctive binding with a short-term memory task for object-colour associations in 30 young and 30 older adults. Participants studied a number of object-colour associations corresponding to their individual object span level in a relational task in which objects were associated to colour patches and a conjunctive task where colour was integrated into the object. Memory for individual items and for associations was tested with a recognition memory test. Evidence for an age-related associative deficit was observed in the relational binding task, but not in the conjunctive binding task. This differential impact of ageing on relational and conjunctive short-term binding is discussed by reference to two underlying age-related cognitive difficulties: diminished hippocampally dependent binding and attentional resources.
EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume 3A provides policies and guiding principles on the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to human health and ecological risk assessment in the EPA Superfund Program.
Zernike, W; Henderson, A
This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.
Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.
The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.
Rechard, R P
This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty.
Risk assessments are based on questions that the assessor asks about scientific information that is relevant to human and/or environmental risk. The risk characterization also provides an evaluation of the assumptions, uncertainties, and selection of studies and models used in th...
The Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment were published in the Federal Register on April 23, 1996 (Federal Register: 17960-18011) for a 120-day public review and comment period. The Proposed Guidelines are a revision of EPA's 1986 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Ass...
Cirone, P A; Bruce Duncan, P
The interconnections between ecosystems, human health and welfare have been increasingly recognized by the US government, academia, and the public. This paper continues this theme by addressing the use of risk assessment to integrate people into a single assessment. In a broad overview of the risk assessment process we stress the need to build a conceptual model of the whole system including multiple species (humans and other ecological entities), stressors, and cumulative effects. We also propose converging landscape ecology and evaluation of ecosystem services with risk assessment to address these cumulative responses. We first look at how this integration can occur within the problem formulation step in risk assessment where the system is defined, a conceptual model created, a subset of components and functions selected, and the analytical framework decided in a context that includes the management decisions. A variety of examples of problem formulations (salmon, wild insects, hyporheic ecosystems, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, nitrogen fertilization, toxic chemicals, and oil spills) are presented to illustrate how treating humans as components of the landscape can add value to risk assessments. We conclude that the risk assessment process should help address the urgent needs of society in proportion to importance, to provide a format to communicate knowledge and understanding, and to inform policy and management decisions.
The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assess...
This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...
Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.
Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.
O'Brien, Terrence P
Acute bacterial conjunctivitis, the most common cause of conjunctivitis, is responsible for approximately 1% of all primary-care consultations. Of the topical ophthalmic antibiotics used to treat acute bacterial conjunctivitis, fluoroquinolones are especially useful because they possess a broad antibacterial spectrum, are bactericidal in action, are generally well tolerated, and have been less prone to development of bacterial resistance. Besifloxacin, the latest advanced fluoroquinolone approved for treating bacterial conjunctivitis, is the first fluoroquinolone developed specifically for topical ophthalmic use. It has a C-8 chlorine substituent and is known as a chloro-fluoroquinolone. Besifloxacin possesses relatively balanced dual-targeting activity against bacterial topoisomerase IV and DNA gyrase (topoisomerse II), two essential enzymes involved in bacterial DNA replication, leading to increased potency and decreased likelihood of bacterial resistance developing to besifloxacin. Microbiological data suggest a relatively high potency and rapid bactericidal activity for besifloxacin against common ocular pathogens, including bacteria resistant to other fluoroquinolones, especially resistant staphylococcal species. Randomized, double-masked, controlled clinical studies demonstrated the clinical efficacy of besifloxacin ophthalmic suspension 0.6% administered three-times daily for 5 days to be superior to the vehicle alone and similar to moxifloxacin ophthalmic solution 0.5% for bacterial conjunctivitis. In addition, besifloxacin ophthalmic suspension 0.6% administered two-times daily for 3 days was clinically more effective than the vehicle alone for bacterial conjunctivitis. Besifloxacin has also been shown in preclinical animal studies to be potentially effective for the "off-label" treatment of infections following ocular surgery, prophylaxis of endophthalmitis, and the treatment of bacterial keratitis. Taken together, clinical and preclinical animal studies
Khambhati, Jay; Allard-Ratick, Marc; Dhindsa, Devinder; Lee, Suegene; Chen, John; Sandesara, Pratik B; Quyyumi, Arshed A; Wong, Nathan D; Blumenthal, Roger S; Sperling, Laurence
The authors would like to submit two corrections on the recently published manuscript, Art of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment. In section 4, the original sentence states: "However, the SCCT does not recommend use of a CAC score in low-risk patients with an ASCVD risk of < 10%." We would like to correct this to "Furthermore, the SCCT recommends consideration of a CAC score in those with a risk score of 5-20% and selectively in those with lower predicted risk who have a family history of premature ASCVD or other risk conditions." This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of
Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol
In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.
Grandjean, P; White, R F; Weihe, P
Neurobehavioral epidemiology may contribute information to risk assessment in relation to a) characterization of neurotoxicity and its time course; b) the dose-effect relationship; c) the dose-response relationship; and d) predisposing factors. The quality of this information relies on the validity of the exposure data, the validity and sensitivity of neurobehavioral function tests, and the degree to which sources of bias are controlled. With epidemiologic studies of methylmercury-associated neurotoxicity as an example, the field of research involves numerous uncertainties that should be taken into account in the risk assessment process. PMID:9182047
On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead.
Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy ...
Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment encourages the use of mechanistic data in the assessment of human cancer risk at low (environmental) exposure levels. The key events that define a particular mode of action for tumor fo...
...-0010, sequence 1] RIN 3090-AJ02 Federal Travel Regulation (FTR); Transportation in Conjunction With... an employee's official station not in conjunction with TDY and/or relocation do not fall under the... transportation fares,'' for reimbursement that is not in conjunction with TDY and/or relocation. Federal...
In conducting risk/exposure assessments for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review, EPA will first develop a draft Scope and Methods Plan which will describe the proposed scope of the quantitative and qualitative analyses to be performed and the tools/methods that may be employed Provide opportunity for CASAC feedback on EPA's plans for the risk and exposure assessment for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review
Koller, J.; Brennan, S.; Godinez, H. C.; Higdon, D. M.; Klimenko, A.; Larsen, B.; Lawrence, E.; Linares, R.; McLaughlin, C. A.; Mehta, P. M.; Palmer, D.; Ridley, A. J.; Shoemaker, M.; Sutton, E.; Thompson, D.; Walker, A.; Wohlberg, B.
Low-Earth orbiting satellites suffer from atmospheric drag due to thermospheric density which changes on the order of several magnitudes especially during space weather events. Solar flares, precipitating particles and ionospheric currents cause the upper atmosphere to heat up, redistribute, and cool again. These processes are intrinsically included in empirical models, e.g. MSIS and Jacchia-Bowman type models. However, sensitivity analysis has shown that atmospheric drag has the highest influence on satellite conjunction analysis and empirical model still do not adequately represent a desired accuracy. Space debris and collision avoidance have become an increasingly operational reality. It is paramount to accurately predict satellite orbits and include drag effect driven by space weather. The IMPACT project (Integrated Modeling of Perturbations in Atmospheres for Conjunction Tracking), funded with over $5 Million by the Los Alamos Laboratory Directed Research and Development office, has the goal to develop an integrated system of atmospheric drag modeling, orbit propagation, and conjunction analysis with detailed uncertainty quantification to address the space debris and collision avoidance problem. Now with over two years into the project, we have developed an integrated solution combining physics-based density modeling of the upper atmosphere between 120-700 km altitude, satellite drag forecasting for quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions, and conjunction analysis with non-Gaussian uncertainty quantification. We are employing several novel approaches including a unique observational sensor developed at Los Alamos; machine learning with a support-vector machine approach of the coupling between solar drivers of the upper atmosphere and satellite drag; rigorous data assimilative modeling using a physics-based approach instead of empirical modeling of the thermosphere; and a computed-tomography method for extracting temporal maps of thermospheric densities
Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve
This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.
Vörösmarty, Charles J; Bravo de Guenni, Lelys; Wollheim, Wilfred M; Pellerin, Brian; Bjerklie, David; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Green, Pamela; Colon, Lilybeth
Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960-2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.
Vorosmarty, Charles J.; de Guenni, Lelys Bravo; Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Colon, Lilybeth
Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960–2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.
Auditing Health Care Organizations _________ 35 Special Fraud Risk Considerations When Auditing Government Contracts ______________ 36 iv │ DODIG-2014...Auditor Fraud Risk Assessment Special Considerations Special Fraud Risk Considerations When Auditing Health Care Organizations...Learning Opportunities 0 Government Relations (Public Policy and Strategic Relations) Government Relations 0 Health Care Affairs Health Care Affairs 0 Human
Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko
Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.
... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment for...
... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment for...
... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment for...
... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment for...
... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment for...
Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre-Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto
Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL-rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT-rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age- and sex-matched case-control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature-based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5-rs6025 and F2-rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.
Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto
Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889
In September 2013, EPA announced the availability of the final report, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments. This final report presents a case study of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs); it focuses on the specific example of MWCNTs as used in flame-retardant coatings applied to upholstery textiles. This case study is organized around the comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) framework, which structures available information pertaining to the product life cycle, environmental transport and fate, exposure-dose in receptors (i.e., humans, ecological populations, and the environment), and potential impacts in these receptors. A group of experts representing multiple disciplines and multiple sector perspectives used an earlier draft of the case study in conjunction with a structured workshop process to identify and prioritize research gaps that, if pursued, could inform future MWCNT assessment efforts. The final report is not a health, risk, or exposure assessment and as such does not draw conclusions about potential risks, or present an exhaustive review of the literature. Rather, it presents the MWCNT research priorities that experts identified in this application of CEA in order to aid research planning throughout the scientific community. The outcomes of these research efforts may subsequ
The goal of this study is to characterize the temporal phenomena in the Korean conjunctive constructions. These constructions consist of three components: a verbal stem, a clause medial temporal suffix, and a clause terminal suffix. This study focuses on both the temporality of the terminal connective suffixes and the grammatical meanings of the…
EPA has announced
The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...
EPA has announced
The Annual Toxicology and Risk ...
EPA has announced
The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...
Huang, Chongfu; Huang, Yundong
An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.
Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.
Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation
Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to