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Sample records for conjunctive bayesian networks

  1. Fuzzy associative conjuncted maps network.

    PubMed

    Goh, Hanlin; Lim, Joo-Hwee; Quek, Chai

    2009-08-01

    The fuzzy associative conjuncted maps (FASCOM) is a fuzzy neural network that associates data of nonlinearly related inputs and outputs. In the network, each input or output dimension is represented by a feature map that is partitioned into fuzzy or crisp sets. These fuzzy sets are then conjuncted to form antecedents and consequences, which are subsequently associated to form if-then rules. The associative memory is encoded through an offline batch mode learning process consisting of three consecutive phases. The initial unsupervised membership function initialization phase takes inspiration from the organization of sensory maps in our brains by allocating membership functions based on uniform information density. Next, supervised Hebbian learning encodes synaptic weights between input and output nodes. Finally, a supervised error reduction phase fine-tunes the network, which allows for the discovery of the varying levels of influence of each input dimension across an output feature space in the encoded memory. In the series of experiments, we show that each phase in the learning process contributes significantly to the final accuracy of prediction. Further experiments using both toy problems and real-world data demonstrate significant superiority in terms of accuracy of nonlinear estimation when benchmarked against other prominent architectures and exhibit the network's suitability to perform analysis and prediction on real-world applications, such as traffic density prediction as shown in this paper.

  2. Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

  3. Adaptive Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Ng, B M

    2007-10-26

    A discrete-time Markov process can be compactly modeled as a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)--a graphical model with nodes representing random variables and directed edges indicating causality between variables. Each node has a probability distribution, conditional on the variables represented by the parent nodes. A DBN's graphical structure encodes fixed conditional dependencies between variables. But in real-world systems, conditional dependencies between variables may be unknown a priori or may vary over time. Model errors can result if the DBN fails to capture all possible interactions between variables. Thus, we explore the representational framework of adaptive DBNs, whose structure and parameters can change from one time step to the next: a distribution's parameters and its set of conditional variables are dynamic. This work builds on recent work in nonparametric Bayesian modeling, such as hierarchical Dirichlet processes, infinite-state hidden Markov networks and structured priors for Bayes net learning. In this paper, we will explain the motivation for our interest in adaptive DBNs, show how popular nonparametric methods are combined to formulate the foundations for adaptive DBNs, and present preliminary results.

  4. Conjunctivitis

    PubMed Central

    Azari, Amir A.; Barney, Neal P.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Conjunctivitis is a common problem. OBJECTIVE To examine the diagnosis, management, and treatment of conjunctivitis, including various antibiotics and alternatives to antibiotic use in infectious conjunctivitis and use of antihistamines and mast cell stabilizers in allergic conjunctivitis. EVIDENCE REVIEW A search of the literature published through March 2013, using PubMed, the ISI Web of Knowledge database, and the Cochrane Library was performed. Eligible articles were selected after review of titles, abstracts, and references. FINDINGS Viral conjunctivitis is the most common overall cause of infectious conjunctivitis and usually does not require treatment; the signs and symptoms at presentation are variable. Bacterial conjunctivitis is the second most common cause of infectious conjunctivitis, with most uncomplicated cases resolving in 1 to 2 weeks. Mattering and adherence of the eyelids on waking, lack of itching, and absence of a history of conjunctivitis are the strongest factors associated with bacterial conjunctivitis. Topical antibiotics decrease the duration of bacterial conjunctivitis and allow earlier return to school or work. Conjunctivitis secondary to sexually transmitted diseases such as chlamydia and gonorrhea requires systemic treatment in addition to topical antibiotic therapy. Allergic conjunctivitis is encountered in up to 40% of the population, but only a small proportion of these individuals seek medical help; itching is the most consistent sign in allergic conjunctivitis, and treatment consists of topical antihistamines and mast cell inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The majority of cases in bacterial conjunctivitis are self-limiting and no treatment is necessary in uncomplicated cases. However, conjunctivitis caused by gonorrhea or chlamydia and conjunctivitis in contact lens wearers should be treated with antibiotics. Treatment for viral conjunctivitis is supportive. Treatment with antihistamines and mast cell stabilizers

  5. Maximum margin Bayesian network classifiers.

    PubMed

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael; Tschiatschek, Sebastian

    2012-03-01

    We present a maximum margin parameter learning algorithm for Bayesian network classifiers using a conjugate gradient (CG) method for optimization. In contrast to previous approaches, we maintain the normalization constraints on the parameters of the Bayesian network during optimization, i.e., the probabilistic interpretation of the model is not lost. This enables us to handle missing features in discriminatively optimized Bayesian networks. In experiments, we compare the classification performance of maximum margin parameter learning to conditional likelihood and maximum likelihood learning approaches. Discriminative parameter learning significantly outperforms generative maximum likelihood estimation for naive Bayes and tree augmented naive Bayes structures on all considered data sets. Furthermore, maximizing the margin dominates the conditional likelihood approach in terms of classification performance in most cases. We provide results for a recently proposed maximum margin optimization approach based on convex relaxation. While the classification results are highly similar, our CG-based optimization is computationally up to orders of magnitude faster. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve classification performance comparable to support vector machines (SVMs) using fewer parameters. Moreover, we show that unanticipated missing feature values during classification can be easily processed by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  6. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  7. Conjunctivitis.

    PubMed

    Alfonso, Susana A; Fawley, Jonie D; Alexa Lu, Xiaoqin

    2015-09-01

    Conjunctivitis is the most common cause of red eye in primary care. The 3 most common types of conjunctivitis are viral, allergic, and bacterial, and they can present in either acute or chronic forms; the age of the patient, time of year and physical examination findings are paramount to distinguish the different types of conjunctivitis. Distinguishing between acute viral and bacterial conjunctivitis remains difficult. Patients with prolonged symptoms, poor response to initial management, or evidence of severe disease should be referred to ophthalmology for consultation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Pedestrian dynamics via Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venkat, Ibrahim; Khader, Ahamad Tajudin; Subramanian, K. G.

    2014-06-01

    Studies on pedestrian dynamics have vital applications in crowd control management relevant to organizing safer large scale gatherings including pilgrimages. Reasoning pedestrian motion via computational intelligence techniques could be posed as a potential research problem within the realms of Artificial Intelligence. In this contribution, we propose a "Bayesian Network Model for Pedestrian Dynamics" (BNMPD) to reason the vast uncertainty imposed by pedestrian motion. With reference to key findings from literature which include simulation studies, we systematically identify: What are the various factors that could contribute to the prediction of crowd flow status? The proposed model unifies these factors in a cohesive manner using Bayesian Networks (BNs) and serves as a sophisticated probabilistic tool to simulate vital cause and effect relationships entailed in the pedestrian domain.

  9. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  10. Quantum Inference on Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, Theodore; Low, Guang Hao; Chuang, Isaac

    2014-03-01

    Because quantum physics is naturally probabilistic, it seems reasonable to expect physical systems to describe probabilities and their evolution in a natural fashion. Here, we use quantum computation to speedup sampling from a graphical probability model, the Bayesian network. A specialization of this sampling problem is approximate Bayesian inference, where the distribution on query variables is sampled given the values e of evidence variables. Inference is a key part of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence tasks, but is known to be NP-hard. Classically, a single unbiased sample is obtained from a Bayesian network on n variables with at most m parents per node in time (nmP(e) - 1 / 2) , depending critically on P(e) , the probability the evidence might occur in the first place. However, by implementing a quantum version of rejection sampling, we obtain a square-root speedup, taking (n2m P(e) -1/2) time per sample. The speedup is the result of amplitude amplification, which is proving to be broadly applicable in sampling and machine learning tasks. In particular, we provide an explicit and efficient circuit construction that implements the algorithm without the need for oracle access.

  11. Building classifiers using Bayesian networks

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, N.; Goldszmidt, M.

    1996-12-31

    Recent work in supervised learning has shown that a surprisingly simple Bayesian classifier with strong assumptions of independence among features, called naive Bayes, is competitive with state of the art classifiers such as C4.5. This fact raises the question of whether a classifier with less restrictive assumptions can perform even better. In this paper we examine and evaluate approaches for inducing classifiers from data, based on recent results in the theory of learning Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks are factored representations of probability distributions that generalize the naive Bayes classifier and explicitly represent statements about independence. Among these approaches we single out a method we call Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN), which outperforms naive Bayes, yet at the same time maintains the computational simplicity (no search involved) and robustness which are characteristic of naive Bayes. We experimentally tested these approaches using benchmark problems from the U. C. Irvine repository, and compared them against C4.5, naive Bayes, and wrapper-based feature selection methods.

  12. Network vulnerability assessment using Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yu; Man, Hong

    2005-03-01

    While computer vulnerabilities have been continually reported in laundry-list format by most commercial scanners, a comprehensive network vulnerability assessment has been an increasing challenge to security analysts. Researchers have proposed a variety of methods to build attack trees with chains of exploits, based on which post-graph vulnerability analysis can be performed. The most recent approaches attempt to build attack trees by enumerating all potential attack paths, which are space consuming and result in poor scalability. This paper presents an approach to use Bayesian network to model potential attack paths. We call such graph as "Bayesian attack graph". It provides a more compact representation of attack paths than conventional methods. Bayesian inference methods can be conveniently used for probabilistic analysis. In particular, we use the Bucket Elimination algorithm for belief updating, and we use Maximum Probability Explanation algorithm to compute an optimal subset of attack paths relative to prior knowledge on attackers and attack mechanisms. We tested our model on an experimental network. Test results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

  13. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Treesearch

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  14. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  15. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  16. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  17. Bayesian Networks for Social Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Brothers, Alan J.

    2011-03-28

    This paper describes a body of work developed over the past five years. The work addresses the use of Bayesian network (BN) models for representing and predicting social/organizational behaviors. The topics covered include model construction, validation, and use. These topics show the bulk of the lifetime of such model, beginning with construction, moving to validation and other aspects of model ‘critiquing’, and finally demonstrating how the modeling approach might be used to inform policy analysis. To conclude, we discuss limitations of using BN for this activity and suggest remedies to address those limitations. The primary benefits of using a well-developed computational, mathematical, and statistical modeling structure, such as BN, are 1) there are significant computational, theoretical and capability bases on which to build 2) ability to empirically critique the model, and potentially evaluate competing models for a social/behavioral phenomena.

  18. Induction of selective Bayesian networks from data

    SciTech Connect

    Singh, M.

    1996-12-31

    Bayesian networks, which provide a compact graphical way to express complex probabilistic relationships among several random variables, are rapidly becoming the tool of choice for dealing with uncertainty in knowledge based systems. Amongst the many advantages offered by Bayesian networks over other representations such as decision trees and neural networks are the ease of comprehensibility to humans, effectiveness as complex decision making models and elicitability of informative prior distributions.

  19. Domino effect analysis using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Cozzani, Valerio

    2013-02-01

    A new methodology is introduced based on Bayesian network both to model domino effect propagation patterns and to estimate the domino effect probability at different levels. The flexible structure and the unique modeling techniques offered by Bayesian network make it possible to analyze domino effects through a probabilistic framework, considering synergistic effects, noisy probabilities, and common cause failures. Further, the uncertainties and the complex interactions among the domino effect components are captured using Bayesian network. The probabilities of events are updated in the light of new information, and the most probable path of the domino effect is determined on the basis of the new data gathered. This study shows how probability updating helps to update the domino effect model either qualitatively or quantitatively. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical example and also to an earlier-studied case study. These examples accentuate the effectiveness of Bayesian network in modeling domino effects in processing facility. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Diagnosis of Subtraction Bugs Using Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Jihyun; Corter, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Diagnosis of misconceptions or "bugs" in procedural skills is difficult because of their unstable nature. This study addresses this problem by proposing and evaluating a probability-based approach to the diagnosis of bugs in children's multicolumn subtraction performance using Bayesian networks. This approach assumes a causal network relating…

  1. Neural network classification - A Bayesian interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wan, Eric A.

    1990-01-01

    The relationship between minimizing a mean squared error and finding the optimal Bayesian classifier is reviewed. This provides a theoretical interpretation for the process by which neural networks are used in classification. A number of confidence measures are proposed to evaluate the performance of the neural network classifier within a statistical framework.

  2. Automatic Thesaurus Construction Using Bayesian Networks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Young C.; Choi, Key-Sun

    1996-01-01

    Discusses automatic thesaurus construction and characterizes the statistical behavior of terms by using an inference network. Highlights include low-frequency terms and data sparseness, Bayesian networks, collocation maps and term similarity, constructing a thesaurus from a collocation map, and experiments with test collections. (Author/LRW)

  3. Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

  4. Diagnosis of Subtraction Bugs Using Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Jihyun; Corter, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Diagnosis of misconceptions or "bugs" in procedural skills is difficult because of their unstable nature. This study addresses this problem by proposing and evaluating a probability-based approach to the diagnosis of bugs in children's multicolumn subtraction performance using Bayesian networks. This approach assumes a causal network relating…

  5. Efficient inference for hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Kuo Chu; Chen, Hongda

    2005-07-01

    This paper is a revision of a paper presented at the SPIE conference on Signal Processing, Senior Fusion, and Target Recognition XII, Aug. 2004, Orlando, Florida. The paper presented there appears (unrefereed) in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 5429. Bayesian networks for static as well as for dynamic cases have been the subject of a great deal of theoretical analysis and practical inference-algorithm development in the research community of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and pattern recognition. After summarizing the well-known theory of discrete and continuous Bayesian networks, we introduce an efficient reasoning scheme into hybrid Bayesian networks. In addition to illustrating the similarities between the dynamic Bayesian networks and the Kalman filter, we present a computationally efficient approach for the inference problem of hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks (HDBNs). The proposed method is based on the separation of the dynamic and static nodes, and subsequent hypercubic partitions via the decision tree algorithm. Experiments show that with high statistical confidence the novel algorithm used in the HDBN performs favorably in the trade-offs of computational complexity and accuracy performance, compared to other exact and approximate methods for applications with uncertainty in a dynamic system.

  6. Learning Bayesian Networks from Correlated Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bae, Harold; Monti, Stefano; Montano, Monty; Steinberg, Martin H.; Perls, Thomas T.; Sebastiani, Paola

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian networks are probabilistic models that represent complex distributions in a modular way and have become very popular in many fields. There are many methods to build Bayesian networks from a random sample of independent and identically distributed observations. However, many observational studies are designed using some form of clustered sampling that introduces correlations between observations within the same cluster and ignoring this correlation typically inflates the rate of false positive associations. We describe a novel parameterization of Bayesian networks that uses random effects to model the correlation within sample units and can be used for structure and parameter learning from correlated data without inflating the Type I error rate. We compare different learning metrics using simulations and illustrate the method in two real examples: an analysis of genetic and non-genetic factors associated with human longevity from a family-based study, and an example of risk factors for complications of sickle cell anemia from a longitudinal study with repeated measures.

  7. Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey.

    PubMed

    Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind-morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging-, thereby broadening the scope-molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical- of the brain aspects to be studied.

  8. Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey

    PubMed Central

    Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind–morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging–, thereby broadening the scope–molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical– of the brain aspects to be studied. PMID:25360109

  9. Bayesian networks in overlay recipe optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Binns, Lewis A.; Reynolds, Greg; Rigden, Timothy C.; Watkins, Stephen; Soroka, Andrew

    2005-05-01

    Currently, overlay measurements are characterized by "recipe", which defines both physical parameters such as focus, illumination et cetera, and also the software parameters such as algorithm to be used and regions of interest. Setting up these recipes requires both engineering time and wafer availability on an overlay tool, so reducing these requirements will result in higher tool productivity. One of the significant challenges to automating this process is that the parameters are highly and complexly correlated. At the same time, a high level of traceability and transparency is required in the recipe creation process, so a technique that maintains its decisions in terms of well defined physical parameters is desirable. Running time should be short, given the system (automatic recipe creation) is being implemented to reduce overheads. Finally, a failure of the system to determine acceptable parameters should be obvious, so a certainty metric is also desirable. The complex, nonlinear interactions make solution by an expert system difficult at best, especially in the verification of the resulting decision network. The transparency requirements tend to preclude classical neural networks and similar techniques. Genetic algorithms and other "global minimization" techniques require too much computational power (given system footprint and cost requirements). A Bayesian network, however, provides a solution to these requirements. Such a network, with appropriate priors, can be used during recipe creation / optimization not just to select a good set of parameters, but also to guide the direction of search, by evaluating the network state while only incomplete information is available. As a Bayesian network maintains an estimate of the probability distribution of nodal values, a maximum-entropy approach can be utilized to obtain a working recipe in a minimum or near-minimum number of steps. In this paper we discuss the potential use of a Bayesian network in such a capacity

  10. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  11. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  12. Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

    2013-09-01

    Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

  13. BNFinder2: Faster Bayesian network learning and Bayesian classification.

    PubMed

    Dojer, Norbert; Bednarz, Pawel; Podsiadlo, Agnieszka; Wilczynski, Bartek

    2013-08-15

    Bayesian Networks (BNs) are versatile probabilistic models applicable to many different biological phenomena. In biological applications the structure of the network is usually unknown and needs to be inferred from experimental data. BNFinder is a fast software implementation of an exact algorithm for finding the optimal structure of the network given a number of experimental observations. Its second version, presented in this article, represents a major improvement over the previous version. The improvements include (i) a parallelized learning algorithm leading to an order of magnitude speed-ups in BN structure learning time; (ii) inclusion of an additional scoring function based on mutual information criteria; (iii) possibility of choosing the resulting network specificity based on statistical criteria and (iv) a new module for classification by BNs, including cross-validation scheme and classifier quality measurements with receiver operator characteristic scores. BNFinder2 is implemented in python and freely available under the GNU general public license at the project Web site https://launchpad.net/bnfinder, together with a user's manual, introductory tutorial and supplementary methods.

  14. Network Plasticity as Bayesian Inference

    PubMed Central

    Legenstein, Robert; Maass, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    General results from statistical learning theory suggest to understand not only brain computations, but also brain plasticity as probabilistic inference. But a model for that has been missing. We propose that inherently stochastic features of synaptic plasticity and spine motility enable cortical networks of neurons to carry out probabilistic inference by sampling from a posterior distribution of network configurations. This model provides a viable alternative to existing models that propose convergence of parameters to maximum likelihood values. It explains how priors on weight distributions and connection probabilities can be merged optimally with learned experience, how cortical networks can generalize learned information so well to novel experiences, and how they can compensate continuously for unforeseen disturbances of the network. The resulting new theory of network plasticity explains from a functional perspective a number of experimental data on stochastic aspects of synaptic plasticity that previously appeared to be quite puzzling. PMID:26545099

  15. Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogel, Kristin

    2016-04-01

    Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

  16. Deep Space Network to Viking Orbiter telecommunication link effects during 1976 superior conjunction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, F. H. J.

    1977-01-01

    Planning of the Viking superior conjunction by the Viking Project and the Deep Space Network is reviewed. Spacecraft and ground station activities and configuration during the three month superior conjunction period are presented and observations made are described.

  17. Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann

    2011-01-01

    Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.

  18. Integrative bayesian network analysis of genomic data.

    PubMed

    Ni, Yang; Stingo, Francesco C; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran

    2014-01-01

    Rapid development of genome-wide profiling technologies has made it possible to conduct integrative analysis on genomic data from multiple platforms. In this study, we develop a novel integrative Bayesian network approach to investigate the relationships between genetic and epigenetic alterations as well as how these mutations affect a patient's clinical outcome. We take a Bayesian network approach that admits a convenient decomposition of the joint distribution into local distributions. Exploiting the prior biological knowledge about regulatory mechanisms, we model each local distribution as linear regressions. This allows us to analyze multi-platform genome-wide data in a computationally efficient manner. We illustrate the performance of our approach through simulation studies. Our methods are motivated by and applied to a multi-platform glioblastoma dataset, from which we reveal several biologically relevant relationships that have been validated in the literature as well as new genes that could potentially be novel biomarkers for cancer progression.

  19. Bayesian belief networks in business continuity.

    PubMed

    Phillipson, Frank; Matthijssen, Edwin; Attema, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Business continuity professionals aim to mitigate the various challenges to the continuity of their company. The goal is a coherent system of measures that encompass detection, prevention and recovery. Choices made in one part of the system affect other parts as well as the continuity risks of the company. In complex organisations, however, these relations are far from obvious. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks to expose these relations, and presents a modelling framework for this approach.

  20. Node Augmentation Technique in Bayesian Network Evidence Analysis and Marshaling

    SciTech Connect

    Keselman, Dmitry; Tompkins, George H; Leishman, Deborah A

    2010-01-01

    Given a Bayesian network, sensitivity analysis is an important activity. This paper begins by describing a network augmentation technique which can simplifY the analysis. Next, we present two techniques which allow the user to determination the probability distribution of a hypothesis node under conditions of uncertain evidence; i.e. the state of an evidence node or nodes is described by a user specified probability distribution. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of three criteria for ranking evidence nodes based on their influence on a hypothesis node. All of these techniques have been used in conjunction with a commercial software package. A Bayesian network based on a directed acyclic graph (DAG) G is a graphical representation of a system of random variables that satisfies the following Markov property: any node (random variable) is independent of its non-descendants given the state of all its parents (Neapolitan, 2004). For simplicities sake, we consider only discrete variables with a finite number of states, though most of the conclusions may be generalized.

  1. Modeling Unreliable Observations in Bayesian Networks by Credal Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antonucci, Alessandro; Piatti, Alberto

    Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models widely employed in AI for the implementation of knowledge-based systems. Standard inference algorithms can update the beliefs about a variable of interest in the network after the observation of some other variables. This is usually achieved under the assumption that the observations could reveal the actual states of the variables in a fully reliable way. We propose a procedure for a more general modeling of the observations, which allows for updating beliefs in different situations, including various cases of unreliable, incomplete, uncertain and also missing observations. This is achieved by augmenting the original Bayesian network with a number of auxiliary variables corresponding to the observations. For a flexible modeling of the observational process, the quantification of the relations between these auxiliary variables and those of the original Bayesian network is done by credal sets, i.e., convex sets of probability mass functions. Without any lack of generality, we show how this can be done by simply estimating the bounds of likelihoods of the observations for the different values of the observed variables. Overall, the Bayesian network is transformed into a credal network, for which a standard updating problem has to be solved. Finally, a number of transformations that might simplify the updating of the resulting credal network is provided.

  2. Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

    PubMed

    Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

    2016-02-01

    A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

  3. Bayesian information fusion networks for biosurveillance applications.

    PubMed

    Mnatsakanyan, Zaruhi R; Burkom, Howard S; Coberly, Jacqueline S; Lombardo, Joseph S

    2009-01-01

    This study introduces new information fusion algorithms to enhance disease surveillance systems with Bayesian decision support capabilities. A detection system was built and tested using chief complaints from emergency department visits, International Classification of Diseases Revision 9 (ICD-9) codes from records of outpatient visits to civilian and military facilities, and influenza surveillance data from health departments in the National Capital Region (NCR). Data anomalies were identified and distribution of time offsets between events in the multiple data streams were established. The Bayesian Network was built to fuse data from multiple sources and identify influenza-like epidemiologically relevant events. Results showed increased specificity compared with the alerts generated by temporal anomaly detection algorithms currently deployed by NCR health departments. Further research should be done to investigate correlations between data sources for efficient fusion of the collected data.

  4. Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-07-01

    Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data Guy Van den Broeck∗ and Karthika Mohan∗ and Arthur Choi and Adnan...We propose a family of efficient algorithms for learning the parameters of a Bayesian network from incomplete data. Our approach is based on recent...algorithms like EM (which require inference). 1 INTRODUCTION When learning the parameters of a Bayesian network from data with missing values, the

  5. Inference of Gene Regulatory Network Based on Local Bayesian Networks.

    PubMed

    Liu, Fei; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Guo, Wei-Feng; Wei, Ze-Gang; Chen, Luonan

    2016-08-01

    The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from expression data can mine the direct regulations among genes and gain deep insights into biological processes at a network level. During past decades, numerous computational approaches have been introduced for inferring the GRNs. However, many of them still suffer from various problems, e.g., Bayesian network (BN) methods cannot handle large-scale networks due to their high computational complexity, while information theory-based methods cannot identify the directions of regulatory interactions and also suffer from false positive/negative problems. To overcome the limitations, in this work we present a novel algorithm, namely local Bayesian network (LBN), to infer GRNs from gene expression data by using the network decomposition strategy and false-positive edge elimination scheme. Specifically, LBN algorithm first uses conditional mutual information (CMI) to construct an initial network or GRN, which is decomposed into a number of local networks or GRNs. Then, BN method is employed to generate a series of local BNs by selecting the k-nearest neighbors of each gene as its candidate regulatory genes, which significantly reduces the exponential search space from all possible GRN structures. Integrating these local BNs forms a tentative network or GRN by performing CMI, which reduces redundant regulations in the GRN and thus alleviates the false positive problem. The final network or GRN can be obtained by iteratively performing CMI and local BN on the tentative network. In the iterative process, the false or redundant regulations are gradually removed. When tested on the benchmark GRN datasets from DREAM challenge as well as the SOS DNA repair network in E.coli, our results suggest that LBN outperforms other state-of-the-art methods (ARACNE, GENIE3 and NARROMI) significantly, with more accurate and robust performance. In particular, the decomposition strategy with local Bayesian networks not only effectively reduce

  6. Drug delivery optimization through Bayesian networks.

    PubMed Central

    Bellazzi, R.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes how Bayesian Networks can be used in combination with compartmental models to plan Recombinant Human Erythropoietin (r-HuEPO) delivery in the treatment of anemia of chronic uremic patients. Past measurements of hematocrit or hemoglobin concentration in a patient during the therapy can be exploited to adjust the parameters of a compartmental model of the erythropoiesis. This adaptive process allows more accurate patient-specific predictions, and hence a more rational dosage planning. We describe a drug delivery optimization protocol, based on our approach. Some results obtained on real data are presented. PMID:1482938

  7. Bayesian neural networks for internet traffic classification.

    PubMed

    Auld, Tom; Moore, Andrew W; Gull, Stephen F

    2007-01-01

    Internet traffic identification is an important tool for network management. It allows operators to better predict future traffic matrices and demands, security personnel to detect anomalous behavior, and researchers to develop more realistic traffic models. We present here a traffic classifier that can achieve a high accuracy across a range of application types without any source or destination host-address or port information. We use supervised machine learning based on a Bayesian trained neural network. Though our technique uses training data with categories derived from packet content, training and testing were done using features derived from packet streams consisting of one or more packet headers. By providing classification without access to the contents of packets, our technique offers wider application than methods that require full packet/payloads for classification. This is a powerful advantage, using samples of classified traffic to permit the categorization of traffic based only upon commonly available information.

  8. Bayesian Inference Networks and Spreading Activation in Hypertext Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Savoy, Jacques

    1992-01-01

    Describes a method based on Bayesian networks for searching hypertext systems. Discussion covers the use of Bayesian networks for structuring index terms and representing user information needs; use of link semantics based on constrained spreading activation to find starting points for browsing; and evaluation of a prototype system. (64…

  9. Implementing Relevance Feedback in the Bayesian Network Retrieval Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Campos, Luis M.; Fernandez-Luna, Juan M.; Huete, Juan F.

    2003-01-01

    Discussion of relevance feedback in information retrieval focuses on a proposal for the Bayesian Network Retrieval Model. Bases the proposal on the propagation of partial evidences in the Bayesian network, representing new information obtained from the user's relevance judgments to compute the posterior relevance probabilities of the documents…

  10. Fuzzy Naive Bayesian for constructing regulated network with weights.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Xi Y; Tian, Xue W; Lim, Joon S

    2015-01-01

    In the data mining field, classification is a very crucial technology, and the Bayesian classifier has been one of the hotspots in classification research area. However, assumptions of Naive Bayesian and Tree Augmented Naive Bayesian (TAN) are unfair to attribute relations. Therefore, this paper proposes a new algorithm named Fuzzy Naive Bayesian (FNB) using neural network with weighted membership function (NEWFM) to extract regulated relations and weights. Then, we can use regulated relations and weights to construct a regulated network. Finally, we will classify the heart and Haberman datasets by the FNB network to compare with experiments of Naive Bayesian and TAN. The experiment results show that the FNB has a higher classification rate than Naive Bayesian and TAN.

  11. Stochastic margin-based structure learning of Bayesian network classifiers.

    PubMed

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael

    2013-02-01

    The margin criterion for parameter learning in graphical models gained significant impact over the last years. We use the maximum margin score for discriminatively optimizing the structure of Bayesian network classifiers. Furthermore, greedy hill-climbing and simulated annealing search heuristics are applied to determine the classifier structures. In the experiments, we demonstrate the advantages of maximum margin optimized Bayesian network structures in terms of classification performance compared to traditionally used discriminative structure learning methods. Stochastic simulated annealing requires less score evaluations than greedy heuristics. Additionally, we compare generative and discriminative parameter learning on both generatively and discriminatively structured Bayesian network classifiers. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve similar classification performance as support vector machines. Moreover, missing feature values during classification can be handled by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where purely discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  12. Stochastic margin-based structure learning of Bayesian network classifiers

    PubMed Central

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The margin criterion for parameter learning in graphical models gained significant impact over the last years. We use the maximum margin score for discriminatively optimizing the structure of Bayesian network classifiers. Furthermore, greedy hill-climbing and simulated annealing search heuristics are applied to determine the classifier structures. In the experiments, we demonstrate the advantages of maximum margin optimized Bayesian network structures in terms of classification performance compared to traditionally used discriminative structure learning methods. Stochastic simulated annealing requires less score evaluations than greedy heuristics. Additionally, we compare generative and discriminative parameter learning on both generatively and discriminatively structured Bayesian network classifiers. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve similar classification performance as support vector machines. Moreover, missing feature values during classification can be handled by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where purely discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first. PMID:24511159

  13. Efficient inference algorithms for hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks (HDBN)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, KuoChu; Chen, Hongda

    2004-08-01

    Bayesian networks for the static as well as for the dynamic cases have been the subject of a great deal of theoretical analysis and practical inference approximations in the research community of artificial intelligence, machine learning and pattern recognition. After exploring the quite well known theory of discrete and continuous Bayesian networks, we introduce an almost instant reasoning scheme to the hybrid Bayesian networks. In addition to illustrate the similarities of the dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) and the Kalman filter, we present a computationally efficient approach for the inference problem of hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks (HDBN). The proposed method is based on the separations of the dynamic and static nodes, and following hypercubic partitions via the Decision tree algorithm (DT). Experiments show that with high statistical confidence the novel algorithm used in the HDBN performs favorably in the tradeoffs of computational complexities and accuracy performance when compared to Junction tree and Gaussian mixture models on the task of classifications.

  14. Calibrating Bayesian Network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models

    SciTech Connect

    Whitney, Paul D.; Walsh, Stephen J.

    2010-04-08

    While human behavior has long been studied, recent and ongoing advances in computational modeling present opportunities for recasting research outcomes in human behavior. In this paper we describe how Bayesian networks can represent outcomes of human behavior research. We demonstrate a Bayesian network that represents political radicalization research – and show a corresponding visual representation of aspects of this research outcome. Since Bayesian networks can be quantitatively compared with external observations, the representation can also be used for empirical assessments of the research which the network summarizes. For a political radicalization model based on published research, we show this empirical comparison with data taken from the Minorities at Risk Organizational Behaviors database.

  15. Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

    PubMed

    Hu, Liangdong; Wang, Limin

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

  16. Using Consensus Bayesian Network to Model the Reactive Oxygen Species Regulatory Pathway

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Liangdong; Wang, Limin

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the Bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of Bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn Bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn Bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus Bayesian network which is constructed by combining Bayesian networks from relevant literatures and Bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the Bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the Bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus Bayesian network to model the 's ROS pathway. PMID:23457624

  17. [Logistic regression against a divergent Bayesian network].

    PubMed

    Sánchez Trujillo, Noel Antonio

    2015-02-03

    This article is a discussion about two statistical tools used for prediction and causality assessment: logistic regression and Bayesian networks. Using data of a simulated example from a study assessing factors that might predict pulmonary emphysema (where fingertip pigmentation and smoking are considered); we posed the following questions. Is pigmentation a confounding, causal or predictive factor? Is there perhaps another factor, like smoking, that confounds? Is there a synergy between pigmentation and smoking? The results, in terms of prediction, are similar with the two techniques; regarding causation, differences arise. We conclude that, in decision-making, the sum of both: a statistical tool, used with common sense, and previous evidence, taking years or even centuries to develop; is better than the automatic and exclusive use of statistical resources.

  18. Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Orum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2000-01-01

    We implement a 2-time slice dynamic Bayesian network (2T-DBN) framework and make a 1-D state estimation simulation, an extension of the experiment in (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000) and compare different filtering techniques. Furthermore, we demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid DBN is possible by simulating fault detection in a watertank system, an extension of the experiment in (Koller & Lerner, 2000) using a hybrid 2T-DBN. In both experiments, we perform approximate inference using standard filtering techniques, Monte Carlo methods and combinations of these. In the watertank simulation, we also demonstrate the use of 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation. We show that the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and UKF in a particle filtering framework outperform the generic particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and EKF in a particle filtering framework with respect to accuracy in terms of estimation RMSE and sensitivity with respect to choice of network structure. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the watertank simulation using UKF and PFUKD and show that the algorithms are more sensitive to changes in the measurement noise level that the process noise level. Theory and implementation is based on (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000).

  19. Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Orum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2004-01-01

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2 - T i e Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from [Koller & Lerner, 20001 to model fault detection in a watertank system. In [Koller & Lerner, 20001 a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for inference. We extend the experiment and perform approximate inference using The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Furthermore, we combine these techniques in a 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation framework and apply it to the watertank system. We show that UKF and UKF in a PF framework outperfom the generic PF, EKF and EKF in a PF framework with respect to accuracy and robustness in terms of estimation RMSE. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. We also show that the choice of network structure is very important for the performance of the generic PF and the EKF algorithms, but not for the UKF algorithms. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the water[ank simulation. Theory and implementation is based on the theory presented.

  20. Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Orum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2004-01-01

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2 - T i e Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from [Koller & Lerner, 20001 to model fault detection in a watertank system. In [Koller & Lerner, 20001 a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for inference. We extend the experiment and perform approximate inference using The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Furthermore, we combine these techniques in a 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation framework and apply it to the watertank system. We show that UKF and UKF in a PF framework outperfom the generic PF, EKF and EKF in a PF framework with respect to accuracy and robustness in terms of estimation RMSE. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. We also show that the choice of network structure is very important for the performance of the generic PF and the EKF algorithms, but not for the UKF algorithms. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the water[ank simulation. Theory and implementation is based on the theory presented.

  1. Bayesian network approach to spatial data mining: a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Jiejun; Wan, Youchuan

    2006-10-01

    Spatial data mining is a process of discovering interesting, novel, and potentially useful information or knowledge hidden in spatial data sets. It involves different techniques and different methods from various areas of research. A Bayesian network is a graphical model that encodes causal probabilistic relationships among variables of interest, which has a powerful ability for representing and reasoning and provides an effective way to spatial data mining. In this paper we give an introduction to Bayesian networks, and discuss using Bayesian networks for spatial data mining. We propose a framework of spatial data mining based on Bayesian networks. Then we show a case study and use the experimental results to validate the practical viability of the proposed approach to spatial data mining. Finally, the paper gives a summary and some remarks.

  2. An empirical evaluation of Bayesian networks derived from fault trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strasser, Shane; Sheppard, John

    Fault Isolation Manuals (FIMs) are derived from a type of decision tree and play an important role in maintenance troubleshooting of large systems. However, there are some drawbacks to using decision trees for maintenance, such as requiring a static order of tests to reach a conclusion. One method to overcome these limitations is by converting FIMs to Bayesian networks. However, it has been shown that Bayesian networks derived from FIMs will not contain the entire set of fault and alarm relationships present in the system from which the FIM was developed. In this paper we analyze Bayesian networks that have been derived from FIMs and report on several measurements, such as accuracy, relative probability of target diagnoses, diagnosis rank, and KL-divergence. Based on our results, we found that even with incomplete information, the Bayesian networks derived from the FIMs were still able to perform reasonably well.

  3. Bayesian Network Webserver: a comprehensive tool for biological network modeling.

    PubMed

    Ziebarth, Jesse D; Bhattacharya, Anindya; Cui, Yan

    2013-11-01

    The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW) is a platform for comprehensive network modeling of systems genetics and other biological datasets. It allows users to quickly and seamlessly upload a dataset, learn the structure of the network model that best explains the data and use the model to understand relationships between network variables. Many datasets, including those used to create genetic network models, contain both discrete (e.g. genotype) and continuous (e.g. gene expression traits) variables, and BNW allows for modeling hybrid datasets. Users of BNW can incorporate prior knowledge during structure learning through an easy-to-use structural constraint interface. After structure learning, users are immediately presented with an interactive network model, which can be used to make testable hypotheses about network relationships. BNW, including a downloadable structure learning package, is available at http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW. (The BNW interface for adding structural constraints uses HTML5 features that are not supported by current version of Internet Explorer. We suggest using other browsers (e.g. Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox) when accessing BNW). ycui2@uthsc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  4. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  5. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  6. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  7. Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

    PubMed

    Hänninen, Maria

    2014-12-01

    Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A mixture copula Bayesian network model for multimodal genomic data.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qingyang; Shi, Xuan

    2017-01-01

    Gaussian Bayesian networks have become a widely used framework to estimate directed associations between joint Gaussian variables, where the network structure encodes the decomposition of multivariate normal density into local terms. However, the resulting estimates can be inaccurate when the normality assumption is moderately or severely violated, making it unsuitable for dealing with recent genomic data such as the Cancer Genome Atlas data. In the present paper, we propose a mixture copula Bayesian network model which provides great flexibility in modeling non-Gaussian and multimodal data for causal inference. The parameters in mixture copula functions can be efficiently estimated by a routine expectation-maximization algorithm. A heuristic search algorithm based on Bayesian information criterion is developed to estimate the network structure, and prediction can be further improved by the best-scoring network out of multiple predictions from random initial values. Our method outperforms Gaussian Bayesian networks and regular copula Bayesian networks in terms of modeling flexibility and prediction accuracy, as demonstrated using a cell signaling data set. We apply the proposed methods to the Cancer Genome Atlas data to study the genetic and epigenetic pathways that underlie serous ovarian cancer.

  9. Overlapping community detection in weighted networks via a Bayesian approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yi; Wang, Xiaolong; Xiang, Xin; Tang, Buzhou; Chen, Qingcai; Fan, Shixi; Bu, Junzhao

    2017-02-01

    Complex networks as a powerful way to represent complex systems have been widely studied during the past several years. One of the most important tasks of complex network analysis is to detect communities embedded in networks. In the real world, weighted networks are very common and may contain overlapping communities where a node is allowed to belong to multiple communities. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian approach, called the Bayesian mixture network (BMN) model, to detect overlapping communities in weighted networks. The advantages of our method are (i) providing soft-partition solutions in weighted networks; (ii) providing soft memberships, which quantify 'how strongly' a node belongs to a community. Experiments on a large number of real and synthetic networks show that our model has the ability in detecting overlapping communities in weighted networks and is competitive with other state-of-the-art models at shedding light on community partition.

  10. Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.

  11. Empirical evaluation of scoring functions for Bayesian network model selection.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhifa; Malone, Brandon; Yuan, Changhe

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we empirically evaluate the capability of various scoring functions of Bayesian networks for recovering true underlying structures. Similar investigations have been carried out before, but they typically relied on approximate learning algorithms to learn the network structures. The suboptimal structures found by the approximation methods have unknown quality and may affect the reliability of their conclusions. Our study uses an optimal algorithm to learn Bayesian network structures from datasets generated from a set of gold standard Bayesian networks. Because all optimal algorithms always learn equivalent networks, this ensures that only the choice of scoring function affects the learned networks. Another shortcoming of the previous studies stems from their use of random synthetic networks as test cases. There is no guarantee that these networks reflect real-world data. We use real-world data to generate our gold-standard structures, so our experimental design more closely approximates real-world situations. A major finding of our study suggests that, in contrast to results reported by several prior works, the Minimum Description Length (MDL) (or equivalently, Bayesian information criterion (BIC)) consistently outperforms other scoring functions such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian Dirichlet equivalence score (BDeu), and factorized normalized maximum likelihood (fNML) in recovering the underlying Bayesian network structures. We believe this finding is a result of using both datasets generated from real-world applications rather than from random processes used in previous studies and learning algorithms to select high-scoring structures rather than selecting random models. Other findings of our study support existing work, e.g., large sample sizes result in learning structures closer to the true underlying structure; the BDeu score is sensitive to the parameter settings; and the fNML performs pretty well on small datasets. We also

  12. Empirical evaluation of scoring functions for Bayesian network model selection

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we empirically evaluate the capability of various scoring functions of Bayesian networks for recovering true underlying structures. Similar investigations have been carried out before, but they typically relied on approximate learning algorithms to learn the network structures. The suboptimal structures found by the approximation methods have unknown quality and may affect the reliability of their conclusions. Our study uses an optimal algorithm to learn Bayesian network structures from datasets generated from a set of gold standard Bayesian networks. Because all optimal algorithms always learn equivalent networks, this ensures that only the choice of scoring function affects the learned networks. Another shortcoming of the previous studies stems from their use of random synthetic networks as test cases. There is no guarantee that these networks reflect real-world data. We use real-world data to generate our gold-standard structures, so our experimental design more closely approximates real-world situations. A major finding of our study suggests that, in contrast to results reported by several prior works, the Minimum Description Length (MDL) (or equivalently, Bayesian information criterion (BIC)) consistently outperforms other scoring functions such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian Dirichlet equivalence score (BDeu), and factorized normalized maximum likelihood (fNML) in recovering the underlying Bayesian network structures. We believe this finding is a result of using both datasets generated from real-world applications rather than from random processes used in previous studies and learning algorithms to select high-scoring structures rather than selecting random models. Other findings of our study support existing work, e.g., large sample sizes result in learning structures closer to the true underlying structure; the BDeu score is sensitive to the parameter settings; and the fNML performs pretty well on small datasets. We also

  13. Study of the most probable explanation in hybrid Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Wei; Chang, KC

    2011-06-01

    In addition to computing the posterior distributions for hidden variables in Bayesian networks, one other important inference task is to find the most probable explanation (MPE). MPE provides the most likely configurations to explain away the evidence and helps to manage hypotheses for decision making. In recent years, researchers have proposed a few methods to find the MPE for discrete Bayesian networks. However, finding the MPE for hybrid networks remains challenging. In this paper, we first briefy review the current state-of-the-art in the literature regarding various explanation methods. We then present an algorithm by using a modified max-product clique tree to find the MPE for accommodating the needs in hybrid Bayesian networks. A detailed example is demonstrated to show the algorithm.

  14. Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

    2012-04-01

    Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a

  15. Common quandaries and their practical solutions in Bayesian network modeling

    Treesearch

    Bruce G. Marcot

    2017-01-01

    Use and popularity of Bayesian network (BN) modeling has greatly expanded in recent years, but many common problems remain. Here, I summarize key problems in BN model construction and interpretation,along with suggested practical solutions. Problems in BN model construction include parameterizing probability values, variable definition, complex network structures,...

  16. Bayesian networks as a tool for epidemiological systems analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, F. I.

    2012-11-01

    Bayesian network analysis is a form of probabilistic modeling which derives from empirical data a directed acyclic graph (DAG) describing the dependency structure between random variables. Bayesian networks are increasingly finding application in areas such as computational and systems biology, and more recently in epidemiological analyses. The key distinction between standard empirical modeling approaches, such as generalised linear modeling, and Bayesian network analyses is that the latter attempts not only to identify statistically associated variables, but to additionally, and empirically, separate these into those directly and indirectly dependent with one or more outcome variables. Such discrimination is vastly more ambitious but has the potential to reveal far more about key features of complex disease systems. Applying Bayesian network modeling to biological and medical data has considerable computational demands, combined with the need to ensure robust model selection given the vast model space of possible DAGs. These challenges require the use of approximation techniques, such as the Laplace approximation, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and parametric bootstrapping, along with computational parallelization. A case study in structure discovery - identification of an optimal DAG for given data - is presented which uses additive Bayesian networks to explore veterinary disease data of industrial and medical relevance.

  17. Python Environment for Bayesian Learning: Inferring the Structure of Bayesian Networks from Knowledge and Data

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Abhik; Woolf, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Summary In this paper, we introduce pebl, a Python library and application for learning Bayesian network structure from data and prior knowledge that provides features unmatched by alternative software packages: the ability to use interventional data, flexible specification of structural priors, modeling with hidden variables and exploitation of parallel processing. PMID:20161541

  18. Python Environment for Bayesian Learning: Inferring the Structure of Bayesian Networks from Knowledge and Data.

    PubMed

    Shah, Abhik; Woolf, Peter

    2009-06-01

    In this paper, we introduce pebl, a Python library and application for learning Bayesian network structure from data and prior knowledge that provides features unmatched by alternative software packages: the ability to use interventional data, flexible specification of structural priors, modeling with hidden variables and exploitation of parallel processing.

  19. Bayesian-network-based soccer video event detection and retrieval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Xinghua; Jin, Guoying; Huang, Mei; Xu, Guangyou

    2003-09-01

    This paper presents an event based soccer video retrieval method, where the scoring even is detected based on Bayesian network from six kinds of cue information including gate, face, audio, texture, caption and text. The topology within the Bayesian network is predefined by hand according to the domain knowledge and the probability distributions are learned in the case of the known structure and full observability. The resulting event probability from the Bayesian network is used as the feature vector to perform the video retrieval. Experiments show that the true and false detection rations for the scoring event are about 90% and 16.67% respectively, and that the video retrieval result based on event is superior to that based on low-level features in the human visual perception.

  20. Exploring the Noisy Threshold Function in Designing Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jurgelenaite, Rasa; Lucas, Peter; Heskes, Tom

    Causal independence modelling is a well-known method both for reducing the size of probability tables and for explaining the underlying mechanisms in Bayesian networks. Many Bayesian network models incorporate causal independence assumptions; however, only the noisy OR and noisy AND, two examples of causal independence models, are used in practice. Their underlying assumption that either at least one cause, or all causes together, give rise to an effect, however, seems unnecessarily restrictive. In the present paper a new, more flexible, causal independence model is proposed, based on the Boolean threshold function. A connection is established between conditional probability distributions based on the noisy threshold model and Poisson binomial distributions, and the basic properties of this probability distribution are studied in some depth. The successful application of the noisy threshold model in the refinement of a Bayesian network for the diagnosis and treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia demo nstrates the practical value of the presented theory.

  1. Prediction of oral cancer recurrence using dynamic Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Kourou, Konstantina; Rigas, George; Exarchos, Konstantinos P; Papaloukas, Costas; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

    2016-08-01

    We propose a methodology for predicting oral cancer recurrence using Dynamic Bayesian Networks. The methodology takes into consideration time series gene expression data collected at the follow-up study of patients that had or had not suffered a disease relapse. Based on that knowledge, our aim is to infer the corresponding dynamic Bayesian networks and subsequently conjecture about the causal relationships among genes within the same time-slice and between consecutive time-slices. Moreover, the proposed methodology aims to (i) assess the prognosis of patients regarding oral cancer recurrence and at the same time, (ii) provide important information about the underlying biological processes of the disease.

  2. Kaolin Quality Prediction from Samples: A Bayesian Network Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Rivas, T.; Taboada, J.; Ordonez, C.; Matias, J. M.

    2009-08-13

    We describe the results of an expert system applied to the evaluation of samples of kaolin for industrial use in paper or ceramic manufacture. Different machine learning techniques - classification trees, support vector machines and Bayesian networks - were applied with the aim of evaluating and comparing their interpretability and prediction capacities. The predictive capacity of these models for the samples analyzed was highly satisfactory, both for ceramic quality and paper quality. However, Bayesian networks generally proved to be the most useful technique for our study, as this approach combines good predictive capacity with excellent interpretability of the kaolin quality structure, as it graphically represents relationships between variables and facilitates what-if analyses.

  3. Antibiotic Prescription Fills for Acute Conjunctivitis among Enrollees in a Large United States Managed Care Network.

    PubMed

    Shekhawat, Nakul S; Shtein, Roni M; Blachley, Taylor S; Stein, Joshua D

    2017-08-01

    Antibiotics are seldom necessary to treat acute conjunctivitis. We assessed how frequently patients with newly diagnosed acute conjunctivitis fill prescriptions for topical antibiotics and factors associated with antibiotic prescription fills. Retrospective, observational cohort study. A total of 340 372 enrollees in a large nationwide United States managed care network with newly diagnosed acute conjunctivitis, from 2001 through 2014. We identified all enrollees newly diagnosed with acute conjunctivitis, calculating the proportion filling 1 or more topical antibiotic prescription within 14 days of initial diagnosis. Multivariate logistic regression assessed sociodemographic, medical, and other factors associated with antibiotic prescription fills for acute conjunctivitis. Geographic variation in prescription fills also was studied. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for filling an antibiotic prescription for acute conjunctivitis. Among 340 372 enrollees with acute conjunctivitis, 198 462 (58%) filled ≥1 topical antibiotic prescriptions; 38 774 filled prescriptions for antibiotic-corticosteroid combination products. Compared with whites, blacks (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.86-0.92) and Latinos (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.86) had lower odds of filling antibiotic prescriptions. More affluent and educated enrollees had higher odds of filling antibiotic prescriptions compared with those with lesser affluence and education (P < 0.01 for all). Compared with persons initially diagnosed with acute conjunctivitis by ophthalmologists, enrollees had considerably higher odds of antibiotic prescription fills if first diagnosed by an optometrist (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.21-1.31), urgent care physician (OR, 3.29; 95% CI, 3.17-3.41), internist (OR, 2.79; 95% CI, 2.69-2.90), pediatrician (OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 2.13-2.43), or family practitioner (OR, 2.46; 95% CI, 2.37-2.55). Antibiotic prescription fills did not differ for persons with versus without risk factors for

  4. Bayesian model averaging of Bayesian network classifiers over multiple node-orders: application to sparse datasets.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Kyu-Baek; Zhang, Byoung-Tak

    2005-12-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) can resolve the overfitting problem by explicitly incorporating the model uncertainty into the analysis procedure. Hence, it can be used to improve the generalization performance of Bayesian network classifiers. Until now, BMA of Bayesian network classifiers has only been performed in some restricted forms, e.g., the model is averaged given a single node-order, because of its heavy computational burden. However, it can be hard to obtain a good node-order when the available training dataset is sparse. To alleviate this problem, we propose BMA of Bayesian network classifiers over several distinct node-orders obtained using the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. The proposed method was examined using two synthetic problems and four real-life datasets. First, we show that the proposed method is especially effective when the given dataset is very sparse. The classification accuracy of averaging over multiple node-orders was higher in most cases than that achieved using a single node-order in our experiments. We also present experimental results for test datasets with unobserved variables, where the quality of the averaged node-order is more important. Through these experiments, we show that the difference in classification performance between the cases of multiple node-orders and single node-order is related to the level of noise, confirming the relative benefit of averaging over multiple node-orders for incomplete data. We conclude that BMA of Bayesian network classifiers over multiple node-orders has an apparent advantage when the given dataset is sparse and noisy, despite the method's heavy computational cost.

  5. Nursing Home Care Quality: Insights from a Bayesian Network Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodson, Justin; Jang, Wooseung; Rantz, Marilyn

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is twofold. The first purpose is to utilize a new methodology (Bayesian networks) for aggregating various quality indicators to measure the overall quality of care in nursing homes. The second is to provide new insight into the relationships that exist among various measures of quality and how such measures…

  6. Implementation of an Adaptive Learning System Using a Bayesian Network

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yasuda, Keiji; Kawashima, Hiroyuki; Hata, Yoko; Kimura, Hiroaki

    2015-01-01

    An adaptive learning system is proposed that incorporates a Bayesian network to efficiently gauge learners' understanding at the course-unit level. Also, learners receive content that is adapted to their measured level of understanding. The system works on an iPad via the Edmodo platform. A field experiment using the system in an elementary school…

  7. Student Performance Assessment Using Bayesian Network and Web Portfolios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Chen-Chung; Chen, Gwo-Dong; Wang, Chin-Yeh; Lu, Ching-Fang

    2002-01-01

    Proposes a novel methodology that employs Bayesian network software to assist teachers in efficiently deriving and utilizing the student model of activity performance from Web portfolios online. This system contains Web portfolios that record in detail students' learning activities, peer interaction, and knowledge progress. (AEF)

  8. Model Criticism of Bayesian Networks with Latent Variables.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williamson, David M.; Mislevy, Robert J.; Almond, Russell G.

    This study investigated statistical methods for identifying errors in Bayesian networks (BN) with latent variables, as found in intelligent cognitive assessments. BN, commonly used in artificial intelligence systems, are promising mechanisms for scoring constructed-response examinations. The success of an intelligent assessment or tutoring system…

  9. Nursing Home Care Quality: Insights from a Bayesian Network Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodson, Justin; Jang, Wooseung; Rantz, Marilyn

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is twofold. The first purpose is to utilize a new methodology (Bayesian networks) for aggregating various quality indicators to measure the overall quality of care in nursing homes. The second is to provide new insight into the relationships that exist among various measures of quality and how such measures…

  10. Bayesian Network Models for Local Dependence among Observable Outcome Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almond, Russell G.; Mulder, Joris; Hemat, Lisa A.; Yan, Duanli

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian network models offer a large degree of flexibility for modeling dependence among observables (item outcome variables) from the same task, which may be dependent. This article explores four design patterns for modeling locally dependent observations: (a) no context--ignores dependence among observables; (b) compensatory context--introduces…

  11. Bayesian belief networks: applications in ecology and natural resource management.

    Treesearch

    R.K. McCann; B.G. Marcot; R. Ellis

    2006-01-01

    We review the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) in natural resource management and ecology. We suggest that BBNs are useful tools for representing expert knowledge of a system, evaluating potential effects of alternative management decisions, and communicating to nonexperts about resource decision issues. BBNs can be used effectively to represent uncertainty in...

  12. Bayesian Network Models for Local Dependence among Observable Outcome Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almond, Russell G.; Mulder, Joris; Hemat, Lisa A.; Yan, Duanli

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian network models offer a large degree of flexibility for modeling dependence among observables (item outcome variables) from the same task, which may be dependent. This article explores four design patterns for modeling locally dependent observations: (a) no context--ignores dependence among observables; (b) compensatory context--introduces…

  13. Using Bayesian neural networks to classify forest scenes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vehtari, Aki; Heikkonen, Jukka; Lampinen, Jouko; Juujarvi, Jouni

    1998-10-01

    We present results that compare the performance of Bayesian learning methods for neural networks on the task of classifying forest scenes into trees and background. Classification task is demanding due to the texture richness of the trees, occlusions of the forest scene objects and diverse lighting conditions under operation. This makes it difficult to determine which are optimal image features for the classification. A natural way to proceed is to extract many different types of potentially suitable features, and to evaluate their usefulness in later processing stages. One approach to cope with large number of features is to use Bayesian methods to control the model complexity. Bayesian learning uses a prior on model parameters, combines this with evidence from a training data, and the integrates over the resulting posterior to make predictions. With this method, we can use large networks and many features without fear of overfitting. For this classification task we compare two Bayesian learning methods for multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks: (1) The evidence framework of MacKay uses a Gaussian approximation to the posterior weight distribution and maximizes with respect to hyperparameters. (2) In a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method due to Neal, the posterior distribution of the network parameters is numerically integrated using the MCMC method. As baseline classifiers for comparison we use (3) MLP early stop committee, (4) K-nearest-neighbor and (5) Classification And Regression Tree.

  14. Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models

    Treesearch

    Bruce G. Marcot

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a selected set of existing and new metrics for gauging Bayesian network model performance and uncertainty. Selected existing and new metrics are discussed for conducting model sensitivity analysis (variance reduction, entropy reduction, case file simulation); evaluating scenarios (influence analysis); depicting model complexity (numbers of model...

  15. Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

    PubMed

    Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

  16. High-Level Fusion using Bayesian Networks: Applications in Command and Control

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-12-01

    prior knowledge into the process. In recent years Bayesian probability theory, which provides a consistent framework for reasoning with uncertain...incorporated into the decision process. Bayesian probability theory provides a consistent mathematical framework for representing and manipulating...assessment process. Bayesian networks provide a computationally tractable method of implementing Bayesian probability theory [5, 6]. In recent years, they

  17. Bayesian Computational Sensor Networks for Aircraft Structural Health Monitoring

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-02-02

    grid due to error in node placement. SLAMBOT: Structural Health Monitoring Robot using Lamb Waves We developed the combination of a mobile robot and...a computational sensor network approach to perform structural health monitoring of structures. The robot is equipped with piezoelectric sensor...The Bayesian Computational Sensor Network methodology is applied to small-scale structural health monitoring. A mobile robot , equipped with vision and

  18. Robust full Bayesian learning for radial basis networks.

    PubMed

    Andrieu, C; de Freitas, N; Doucet, A

    2001-10-01

    We propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for radial basis networks. This model treats the model dimension (number of neurons), model parameters, regularization parameters, and noise parameters as unknown random variables. We develop a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to perform the Bayesian computation. We find that the results obtained using this method are not only better than the ones reported previously, but also appear to be robust with respect to the prior specification. In addition, we propose a novel and computationally efficient reversible-jump MCMC simulated annealing algorithm to optimize neural networks. This algorithm enables us to maximize the joint posterior distribution of the network parameters and the number of basis function. It performs a global search in the joint space of the parameters and number of parameters, thereby surmounting the problem of local minima to a large extent. We show that by calibrating the full hierarchical Bayesian prior, we can obtain the classical Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and minimum description length model selection criteria within a penalized likelihood framework. Finally, we present a geometric convergence theorem for the algorithm with homogeneous transition kernel and a convergence theorem for the reversible-jump MCMC simulated annealing method.

  19. THREAT ANTICIPATION AND DECEPTIVE REASONING USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS

    SciTech Connect

    Allgood, Glenn O; Olama, Mohammed M; Lake, Joe E

    2009-01-01

    Recent events highlight the need for tools to anticipate threats posed by terrorists. Assessing these threats requires combining information from disparate data sources such as analytic models, simulations, historical data, sensor networks, and user judgments. These disparate data can be combined in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner using a Bayesian belief network (BBN). In this paper, we develop a BBN threat anticipatory model based on a deceptive reasoning algorithm using a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of the BBN nodes within the broader context of the system development process.

  20. Relationships between probabilistic Boolean networks and dynamic Bayesian networks as models of gene regulatory networks

    PubMed Central

    Lähdesmäki, Harri; Hautaniemi, Sampsa; Shmulevich, Ilya; Yli-Harja, Olli

    2006-01-01

    A significant amount of attention has recently been focused on modeling of gene regulatory networks. Two frequently used large-scale modeling frameworks are Bayesian networks (BNs) and Boolean networks, the latter one being a special case of its recent stochastic extension, probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs). PBN is a promising model class that generalizes the standard rule-based interactions of Boolean networks into the stochastic setting. Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) is a general and versatile model class that is able to represent complex temporal stochastic processes and has also been proposed as a model for gene regulatory systems. In this paper, we concentrate on these two model classes and demonstrate that PBNs and a certain subclass of DBNs can represent the same joint probability distribution over their common variables. The major benefit of introducing the relationships between the models is that it opens up the possibility of applying the standard tools of DBNs to PBNs and vice versa. Hence, the standard learning tools of DBNs can be applied in the context of PBNs, and the inference methods give a natural way of handling the missing values in PBNs which are often present in gene expression measurements. Conversely, the tools for controlling the stationary behavior of the networks, tools for projecting networks onto sub-networks, and efficient learning schemes can be used for DBNs. In other words, the introduced relationships between the models extend the collection of analysis tools for both model classes. PMID:17415411

  1. A Full Bayesian Approach for Boolean Genetic Network Inference

    PubMed Central

    Han, Shengtong; Wong, Raymond K. W.; Lee, Thomas C. M.; Shen, Linghao; Li, Shuo-Yen R.; Fan, Xiaodan

    2014-01-01

    Boolean networks are a simple but efficient model for describing gene regulatory systems. A number of algorithms have been proposed to infer Boolean networks. However, these methods do not take full consideration of the effects of noise and model uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a full Bayesian approach to infer Boolean genetic networks. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to obtain the posterior samples of both the network structure and the related parameters. In addition to regular link addition and removal moves, which can guarantee the irreducibility of the Markov chain for traversing the whole network space, carefully constructed mixture proposals are used to improve the Markov chain Monte Carlo convergence. Both simulations and a real application on cell-cycle data show that our method is more powerful than existing methods for the inference of both the topology and logic relations of the Boolean network from observed data. PMID:25551820

  2. Predicting Software Suitability Using a Bayesian Belief Network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beaver, Justin M.; Schiavone, Guy A.; Berrios, Joseph S.

    2005-01-01

    The ability to reliably predict the end quality of software under development presents a significant advantage for a development team. It provides an opportunity to address high risk components earlier in the development life cycle, when their impact is minimized. This research proposes a model that captures the evolution of the quality of a software product, and provides reliable forecasts of the end quality of the software being developed in terms of product suitability. Development team skill, software process maturity, and software problem complexity are hypothesized as driving factors of software product quality. The cause-effect relationships between these factors and the elements of software suitability are modeled using Bayesian Belief Networks, a machine learning method. This research presents a Bayesian Network for software quality, and the techniques used to quantify the factors that influence and represent software quality. The developed model is found to be effective in predicting the end product quality of small-scale software development efforts.

  3. A system for automated general medical diagnosis using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Zagorecki, Adam; Orzechowski, Piotr; Hołownia, Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present a computer-assisted diagnostic system for general medical diagnosis developed using Bayesian network methodology and a medical data base created by experts. The system is intended for the general public as a self-diagnostic tool and is available online free of charge (currently only in Polish, with an English version to be released soon). It serves as an educational self-diagnostic tool intended to encourage the user to visit a doctor if the system so suggests, as is most often the case. In this paper we discuss the underlying modeling principles: assumptions behind Bayesian network architecture, solutions to scalability challenges, and computation performance. The distributed software architecture is presented, and finally, initial results based on over 97,000 diagnoses are discussed. The results suggest that the most common health problems for the young generation in Poland (typical user profile) are those resulting from stress and an unhealthy lifestyle.

  4. Situation assessment for air combat based on the Bayesian networks technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Zhaolin; Yang, Hongwen; Hu, Weidong; Yu, Wenxian

    2005-11-01

    This paper researches on the method of situation assessment for the air combat based on the Bayesian networks technology. It analyzes the events occur in the process of air combat, and presents a hybrid method of fuzzy sets and Bayesian networks to detect these events. Then, it presents a method to construct Bayesian networks using the events and then uses the networks to reason the purpose of enemy fighter pilots. Finally, it shows the method by an illustrative example.

  5. Understanding disease processes by partitioned dynamic Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Bueno, Marcos L P; Hommersom, Arjen; Lucas, Peter J F; Lappenschaar, Martijn; Janzing, Joost G E

    2016-06-01

    For many clinical problems in patients the underlying pathophysiological process changes in the course of time as a result of medical interventions. In model building for such problems, the typical scarcity of data in a clinical setting has been often compensated by utilizing time homogeneous models, such as dynamic Bayesian networks. As a consequence, the specificities of the underlying process are lost in the obtained models. In the current work, we propose the new concept of partitioned dynamic Bayesian networks to capture distribution regime changes, i.e. time non-homogeneity, benefiting from an intuitive and compact representation with the solid theoretical foundation of Bayesian network models. In order to balance specificity and simplicity in real-world scenarios, we propose a heuristic algorithm to search and learn these non-homogeneous models taking into account a preference for less complex models. An extensive set of experiments were ran, in which simulating experiments show that the heuristic algorithm was capable of constructing well-suited solutions, in terms of goodness of fit and statistical distance to the original distributions, in consonance with the underlying processes that generated data, whether it was homogeneous or non-homogeneous. Finally, a study case on psychotic depression was conducted using non-homogeneous models learned by the heuristic, leading to insightful answers for clinically relevant questions concerning the dynamics of this mental disorder.

  6. Nursing home care quality: insights from a Bayesian network approach.

    PubMed

    Goodson, Justin; Jang, Wooseung; Rantz, Marilyn

    2008-06-01

    The purpose of this research is twofold. The first purpose is to utilize a new methodology (Bayesian networks) for aggregating various quality indicators to measure the overall quality of care in nursing homes. The second is to provide new insight into the relationships that exist among various measures of quality and how such measures affect the overall quality of nursing home care as measured by the Observable Indicators of Nursing Home Care Quality Instrument. In contrast to many methods used for the same purpose, our method yields both qualitative and quantitative insight into nursing home care quality. We construct several Bayesian networks to study the influences among factors associated with the quality of nursing home care; we compare and measure their accuracy against other predictive models. We find the best Bayesian network to perform better than other commonly used methods. We also identify key factors, including number of certified nurse assistant hours, prevalence of bedfast residents, and prevalence of daily physical restraints, that significantly affect the quality of nursing home care. Furthermore, the results of our analysis identify their probabilistic relationships. The findings of this research indicate that nursing home care quality is most accurately represented through a mix of structural, process, and outcome measures of quality. We also observe that the factors affecting the quality of nursing home care collectively determine the overall quality. Hence, focusing on only key factors without addressing other related factors may not substantially improve the quality of nursing home care.

  7. Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans.

    PubMed

    Kalet, Alan M; Gennari, John H; Ford, Eric C; Phillips, Mark H

    2015-04-07

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network's conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.

  8. A Bayesian regularized artificial neural network for adaptive optics forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Zhi; Chen, Ying; Li, Xinyang; Qin, Xiaolin; Wang, Huiyong

    2017-01-01

    Real-time adaptive optics is a technology for enhancing the resolution of ground-based optical telescopes and overcoming the disturbance of atmospheric turbulence. The performance of the system is limited by delay errors induced by the servo system and photoelectrons noise of wavefront sensor. In order to cut these delay errors, this paper proposes a novel model to forecast the future control voltages of the deformable mirror. The predictive model is constructed by a multi-layered back propagation network with Bayesian regularization (BRBP). For the purpose of parallel computation and less disturbance, we adopt a number of sub-BP neural networks to substitute the whole network. The Bayesian regularized network assigns a probability to the network weights, allowing the network to automatically and optimally penalize excessively complex models. The simulation results show that the BRBP introduces smaller mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square errors (MSE) than other typical algorithms. Meanwhile, real data analysis results show that the BRBP model has strong generalization capability and parallelism.

  9. Continuous Attractor Network Model for Conjunctive Position-by-Velocity Tuning of Grid Cells

    PubMed Central

    Si, Bailu; Romani, Sandro; Tsodyks, Misha

    2014-01-01

    The spatial responses of many of the cells recorded in layer II of rodent medial entorhinal cortex (MEC) show a triangular grid pattern, which appears to provide an accurate population code for animal spatial position. In layer III, V and VI of the rat MEC, grid cells are also selective to head-direction and are modulated by the speed of the animal. Several putative mechanisms of grid-like maps were proposed, including attractor network dynamics, interactions with theta oscillations or single-unit mechanisms such as firing rate adaptation. In this paper, we present a new attractor network model that accounts for the conjunctive position-by-velocity selectivity of grid cells. Our network model is able to perform robust path integration even when the recurrent connections are subject to random perturbations. PMID:24743341

  10. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodrich, Michael S.

    2011-01-01

    Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

  11. Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. Results We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism’s metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. Conclusions After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis. PMID:22784571

  12. Bayesian Network Expansion Identifies New ROS and Biofilm Regulators

    PubMed Central

    Xiang, Zuoshuang; Woolf, Peter; Xi, Chuanwu; He, Yongqun

    2010-01-01

    Signaling and regulatory pathways that guide gene expression have only been partially defined for most organisms. However, given the increasing number of microarray measurements, it may be possible to reconstruct such pathways and uncover missing connections directly from experimental data. Using a compendium of microarray gene expression data obtained from Escherichia coli, we constructed a series of Bayesian network models for the reactive oxygen species (ROS) pathway as defined by EcoCyc. A consensus Bayesian network model was generated using those networks sharing the top recovered score. This microarray-based network only partially agreed with the known ROS pathway curated from the literature and databases. A top network was then expanded to predict genes that could enhance the Bayesian network model using an algorithm we termed ‘BN+1’. This expansion procedure predicted many stress-related genes (e.g., dusB and uspE), and their possible interactions with other ROS pathway genes. A term enrichment method discovered that biofilm-associated microarray data usually contained high expression levels of both uspE and gadX. The predicted involvement of gene uspE in the ROS pathway and interactions between uspE and gadX were confirmed experimentally using E. coli reporter strains. Genes gadX and uspE showed a feedback relationship in regulating each other's expression. Both genes were verified to regulate biofilm formation through gene knockout experiments. These data suggest that the BN+1 expansion method can faithfully uncover hidden or unknown genes for a selected pathway with significant biological roles. The presently reported BN+1 expansion method is a generalized approach applicable to the characterization and expansion of other biological pathways and living systems. PMID:20209085

  13. SAGA: a hybrid search algorithm for Bayesian Network structure learning of transcriptional regulatory networks.

    PubMed

    Adabor, Emmanuel S; Acquaah-Mensah, George K; Oduro, Francis T

    2015-02-01

    Bayesian Networks have been used for the inference of transcriptional regulatory relationships among genes, and are valuable for obtaining biological insights. However, finding optimal Bayesian Network (BN) is NP-hard. Thus, heuristic approaches have sought to effectively solve this problem. In this work, we develop a hybrid search method combining Simulated Annealing with a Greedy Algorithm (SAGA). SAGA explores most of the search space by undergoing a two-phase search: first with a Simulated Annealing search and then with a Greedy search. Three sets of background-corrected and normalized microarray datasets were used to test the algorithm. BN structure learning was also conducted using the datasets, and other established search methods as implemented in BANJO (Bayesian Network Inference with Java Objects). The Bayesian Dirichlet Equivalence (BDe) metric was used to score the networks produced with SAGA. SAGA predicted transcriptional regulatory relationships among genes in networks that evaluated to higher BDe scores with high sensitivities and specificities. Thus, the proposed method competes well with existing search algorithms for Bayesian Network structure learning of transcriptional regulatory networks.

  14. Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalet, Alan M.; Gennari, John H.; Ford, Eric C.; Phillips, Mark H.

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network’s conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.

  15. Detecting communities in networks using a Bayesian nonparametric method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Shengze; Wang, Zhenwen

    2014-07-01

    In the real world, a large amount of systems can be described by networks where nodes represent entities and edges the interconnections between them. Community structure in networks is one of the interesting properties revealed in the study of networks. Many methods have been developed to extract communities from networks using the generative models which give the probability of generating networks based on some assumption about the communities. However, many generative models require setting the number of communities in the network. The methods based on such models are lack of practicality, because the number of communities is unknown before determining the communities. In this paper, the Bayesian nonparametric method is used to develop a new community detection method. First, a generative model is built to give the probability of generating the network and its communities. Next, the model parameters and the number of communities are calculated by fitting the model to the actual network. Finally, the communities in the network can be determined using the model parameters. In the experiments, we apply the proposed method to the synthetic and real-world networks, comparing with some other community detection methods. The experimental results show that the proposed method is efficient to detect communities in networks.

  16. Unifying acute stroke treatment guidelines for a Bayesian belief network.

    PubMed

    Love, Alexa; Arnold, Corey W; El-Saden, Suzie; Liebeskind, David S; Andrada, Lewellyn; Saver, Jeffrey; Bui, Alex A T

    2013-01-01

    With the large number of clinical practice guidelines available, there is an increasing need for a comprehensive unified model for acute ischemic stroke treatment to assist in clinical decision making. We present a unified treatment model derived through review of existing clinical practice guidelines, meta-analyses, and clinical trials. Using logic from the treatment model, a Bayesian belief network was defined and fitted to data from our institution's observational quality improvement database for acute stroke patients. The resulting network validates known relationships between variables, treatment decisions and outcomes, and enables the exploration of new correlative relationships not defined in current guidelines.

  17. Conjunctive management of multi-reservoir network system and groundwater system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mani, A.; Tsai, F. T. C.

    2015-12-01

    This study develops a successive mixed-integer linear fractional programming (successive MILFP) method to conjunctively manage water resources provided by a multi-reservoir network system and a groundwater system. The conjunctive management objectives are to maximize groundwater withdrawals and maximize reservoir storages while satisfying water demands and raising groundwater level to a target level. The decision variables in the management problem are reservoir releases and spills, network flows and groundwater pumping rates. Using the fractional programming approach, the objective function is defined as a ratio of total groundwater withdraws to total reservoir storage deficits from the maximum storages. Maximizing this ratio function tends to maximizing groundwater use and minimizing surface water use. This study introduces a conditional constraint on groundwater head in order to sustain aquifers from overpumping: if current groundwater level is less than a target level, groundwater head at the next time period has to be raised; otherwise, it is allowed to decrease up to a certain extent. This conditional constraint is formulated into a set of mixed binary nonlinear constraints and results in a mixed-integer nonlinear fractional programming (MINLFP) problem. To solve the MINLFP problem, we first use the response matrix approach to linearize groundwater head with respect to pumping rate and reduce the problem to an MILFP problem. Using the Charnes-Cooper transformation, the MILFP is transformed to an equivalent mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). The solution of the MILP is successively updated by updating the response matrix in every iteration. The study uses IBM CPLEX to solve the MILP problem. The methodology is applied to water resources management in northern Louisiana. This conjunctive management approach aims to recover the declining groundwater level of the stressed Sparta aquifer by using surface water from a network of four reservoirs as an

  18. Discovering human immunodeficiency virus mutational pathways using temporal Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Hernandez-Leal, Pablo; Rios-Flores, Alma; Avila-Rios, Santiago; Reyes-Terán, Gustavo; Gonzalez, Jesus A; Fiedler-Cameras, Lindsey; Orihuela-Espina, Felipe; Morales, Eduardo F; Sucar, L Enrique

    2013-03-01

    The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is one of the fastest evolving organisms in the planet. Its remarkable variation capability makes HIV able to escape from multiple evolutionary forces naturally or artificially acting on it, through the development and selection of adaptive mutations. Although most drug resistance mutations have been well identified, the dynamics and temporal patterns of appearance of these mutations can still be further explored. The use of models to predict mutational pathways as well as temporal patterns of appearance of adaptive mutations could greatly benefit clinical management of individuals under antiretroviral therapy. We apply a temporal nodes Bayesian network (TNBN) model to data extracted from the Stanford HIV drug resistance database in order to explore the probabilistic relationships between drug resistance mutations and antiretroviral drugs unveiling possible mutational pathways and establishing their probabilistic-temporal sequence of appearance. In a first experiment, we compared the TNBN approach with other models such as static Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks and association rules. TNBN achieved a 64.2% sparser structure over the static network. In a second experiment, the TNBN model was applied to a dataset associating antiretroviral drugs with mutations developed under different antiretroviral regimes. The learned models captured previously described mutational pathways and associations between antiretroviral drugs and drug resistance mutations. Predictive accuracy reached 90.5%. Our results suggest possible applications of TNBN for studying drug-mutation and mutation-mutation networks in the context of antiretroviral therapy, with direct impact on the clinical management of patients under antiretroviral therapy. This opens new horizons for predicting HIV mutational pathways in immune selection with relevance for antiretroviral drug development and therapy plan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  19. Mobile sensor network noise reduction and recalibration using a Bayesian network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, Y.; Tang, Y.; Zhu, W.

    2016-02-01

    People are becoming increasingly interested in mobile air quality sensor network applications. By eliminating the inaccuracies caused by spatial and temporal heterogeneity of pollutant distributions, this method shows great potential for atmospheric research. However, systems based on low-cost air quality sensors often suffer from sensor noise and drift. For the sensing systems to operate stably and reliably in real-world applications, those problems must be addressed. In this work, we exploit the correlation of different types of sensors caused by cross sensitivity to help identify and correct the outlier readings. By employing a Bayesian network based system, we are able to recover the erroneous readings and recalibrate the drifted sensors simultaneously. Our method improves upon the state-of-art Bayesian belief network techniques by incorporating the virtual evidence and adjusting the sensor calibration functions recursively.Specifically, we have (1) designed a system based on the Bayesian belief network to detect and recover the abnormal readings, (2) developed methods to update the sensor calibration functions infield without requirement of ground truth, and (3) extended the Bayesian network with virtual evidence for infield sensor recalibration. To validate our technique, we have tested our technique with metal oxide sensors measuring NO2, CO, and O3 in a real-world deployment. Compared with the existing Bayesian belief network techniques, results based on our experiment setup demonstrate that our system can reduce error by 34.1 % and recover 4 times more data on average.

  20. MarketBayes: A distributed, market-based Bayesian network

    SciTech Connect

    Pennock, D.M.

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents initial work on a system called MarketBayes, a computational market economy where distributed agents trade in uncertain propositions. For any Bayesian network, we have defined a corresponding economy of goods, consumers and producers that essentially {open_quotes}computes{close_quotes} the same information. Although our research thus far has only verified the existence of a market structure capable of Bayesian calculations, our hope is that such a system may address a variety of interesting problems of distributed uncertain reasoning. For example, the economic framework should be well suited for belief aggregation, since the bids of numerous agents with varying beliefs, confidence levels and wealth are concisely {open_quotes}summarized{close_quotes} in the going prices of goods.

  1. Kaolin Quality Prediction from Samples: A Bayesian Network Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivas, T.; Matías, J. M.; Taboada, J.; Ordóñez, C.

    2009-08-01

    We describe the results of an expert system applied to the evaluation of samples of kaolin for industrial use in paper or ceramic manufacture. Different machine learning techniques—classification trees, support vector machines and Bayesian networks—were applied with the aim of evaluating and comparing their interpretability and prediction capacities. The predictive capacity of these models for the samples analyzed was highly satisfactory, both for ceramic quality and paper quality. However, Bayesian networks generally proved to be the most useful technique for our study, as this approach combines good predictive capacity with excellent interpretability of the kaolin quality structure, as it graphically represents relationships between variables and facilitates what-if analyses.

  2. Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai

    2016-05-01

    Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well.

  3. Discriminating complex networks through supervised NDR and Bayesian classifier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Ke-Sheng; Rong, Li-Li; Yu, Kai

    2016-12-01

    Discriminating complex networks is a particularly important task for the purpose of the systematic study of networks. In order to discriminate unknown networks exactly, a large set of network measurements are needed to be taken into account for comprehensively considering network properties. However, as we demonstrate in this paper, these measurements are nonlinear correlated with each other in general, resulting in a wide variety of redundant measurements which unintentionally explain the same aspects of network properties. To solve this problem, we adopt supervised nonlinear dimensionality reduction (NDR) to eliminate the nonlinear redundancy and visualize networks in a low-dimensional projection space. Though unsupervised NDR can achieve the same aim, we illustrate that supervised NDR is more appropriate than unsupervised NDR for discrimination task. After that, we perform Bayesian classifier (BC) in the projection space to discriminate the unknown network by considering the projection score vectors as the input of the classifier. We also demonstrate the feasibility and effectivity of this proposed method in six extensive research real networks, ranging from technological to social or biological. Moreover, the effectiveness and advantage of the proposed method is proved by the contrast experiments with the existing method.

  4. Bayesian blind source separation for data with network structure.

    PubMed

    Illner, Katrin; Fuchs, Christiane; Theis, Fabian J

    2014-11-01

    In biology, more and more information about the interactions in regulatory systems becomes accessible, and this often leads to prior knowledge for recent data interpretations. In this work we focus on multivariate signaling data, where the structure of the data is induced by a known regulatory network. To extract signals of interest we assume a blind source separation (BSS) model, and we capture the structure of the source signals in terms of a Bayesian network. To keep the parameter space small, we consider stationary signals, and we introduce the new algorithm emGrade, where model parameters and source signals are estimated using expectation maximization. For network data, we find an improved estimation performance compared to other BSS algorithms, and the flexible Bayesian modeling enables us to deal with repeated and missing observation values. The main advantage of our method is the statistically interpretable likelihood, and we can use model selection criteria to determine the (in general unknown) number of source signals or decide between different given networks. In simulations we demonstrate the recovery of the source signals dependent on the graph structure and the dimensionality of the data.

  5. High-throughput Bayesian Network Learning using Heterogeneous Multicore Computers.

    PubMed

    Linderman, Michael D; Athalye, Vivek; Meng, Teresa H; Asadi, Narges Bani; Bruggner, Robert; Nolan, Garry P

    2010-06-01

    Aberrant intracellular signaling plays an important role in many diseases. The causal structure of signal transduction networks can be modeled as Bayesian Networks (BNs), and computationally learned from experimental data. However, learning the structure of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is an NP-hard problem that, even with fast heuristics, is too time consuming for large, clinically important networks (20-50 nodes). In this paper, we present a novel graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated implementation of a Monte Carlo Markov Chain-based algorithm for learning BNs that is up to 7.5-fold faster than current general-purpose processor (GPP)-based implementations. The GPU-based implementation is just one of several implementations within the larger application, each optimized for a different input or machine configuration. We describe the methodology we use to build an extensible application, assembled from these variants, that can target a broad range of heterogeneous systems, e.g., GPUs, multicore GPPs. Specifically we show how we use the Merge programming model to efficiently integrate, test and intelligently select among the different potential implementations.

  6. A Dynamic Bayesian Network for Mt. Etna Volcano State Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannavo', Flavio; Cassisi, Carmelo; Aliotta, Marco; Cannata, Andrea; Montalto, Placido; Prestifilippo, Michele

    2015-04-01

    Nowadays, the real-time monitoring of Mt. Etna volcano is mostly delegated to one or more human experts in volcanology, who interpret the data coming from different kind of monitoring networks. Among their duties, the evaluation of the volcano state is one of the most critical task for civil protection purposes. Unfortunately, the coupling of highly non-linear and complex volcanic dynamic processes leads to measurable effects that can show a large variety of different behaviors. Moreover, due to intrinsic uncertainties and possible failures in some recorded data the volcano state needs to be expressed in probabilistic terms, thus making the fast volcano state assessment sometimes impracticable for the personnel on duty at the 24h control room. With the aim of aiding the personnel on duty in volcano monitoring, here we present an expert system approach based on Bayesian networks to estimate automatically the ongoing volcano state from all the available different kind of measurements. A Bayesian network is a static probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph. We consider model variables both the measurements and the possible states of the volcano. In order to include the time in the model, we use a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) which relates variables to each other over adjacent time steps. The model output consists of an estimation of the probability distribution of the feasible volcano states. We build the model by considering the long record of data from 2011 to 2014 and we cross-validate it by considering 3 years for parameter estimation and 1 year for testing in simulated real-time mode.

  7. A Bayesian Network Approach to Modeling Learning Progressions and Task Performance. CRESST Report 776

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    West, Patti; Rutstein, Daisy Wise; Mislevy, Robert J.; Liu, Junhui; Choi, Younyoung; Levy, Roy; Crawford, Aaron; DiCerbo, Kristen E.; Chappel, Kristina; Behrens, John T.

    2010-01-01

    A major issue in the study of learning progressions (LPs) is linking student performance on assessment tasks to the progressions. This report describes the challenges faced in making this linkage using Bayesian networks to model LPs in the field of computer networking. The ideas are illustrated with exemplar Bayesian networks built on Cisco…

  8. Pinkeye (Conjunctivitis)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Loss Surgery? A Week of Healthy Breakfasts Shyness Pinkeye (Conjunctivitis) KidsHealth > For Teens > Pinkeye (Conjunctivitis) A A A ... are common with allergic conjunctivitis. How Long Is Conjunctivitis Contagious? Conjunctivitis that's caused by bacteria is contagious ...

  9. BN+1 Bayesian network expansion for identifying molecular pathway elements

    PubMed Central

    Hodges, Andrew P; Woolf, Peter

    2010-01-01

    A Bayesian network expansion algorithm called BN+1 was developed to identify undocumented gene interactions in a known pathway using microarray gene expression data. In our recent paper, the BN+1 algorithm has been successfully used to identify key regulators including uspE in the E. coli ROS pathway and biofilm formation.18 In this report, a synthetic network was designed to further evaluate this algorithm. The BN+1 method was found to identify both linear and nonlinear relationships and correctly identify variables near the starting network. Using experimentally derived data, the BN+1 method identifies the gene fdhE as a potentially new ROS regulator. Finally, a range of possible score cutoff methods are explored to identify a set of criteria for selecting BN+1 calls. PMID:21331236

  10. Bayesian Inference of Natural Rankings in Incomplete Competition Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Juyong; Yook, Soon-Hyung

    2014-08-01

    Competition between a complex system's constituents and a corresponding reward mechanism based on it have profound influence on the functioning, stability, and evolution of the system. But determining the dominance hierarchy or ranking among the constituent parts from the strongest to the weakest - essential in determining reward and penalty - is frequently an ambiguous task due to the incomplete (partially filled) nature of competition networks. Here we introduce the ``Natural Ranking,'' an unambiguous ranking method applicable to a round robin tournament, and formulate an analytical model based on the Bayesian formula for inferring the expected mean and error of the natural ranking of nodes from an incomplete network. We investigate its potential and uses in resolving important issues of ranking by applying it to real-world competition networks.

  11. Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zeigler, Sara; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan K.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

    2017-01-01

    Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection

  12. Multiscale Bayesian neural networks for soil water content estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jana, Raghavendra B.; Mohanty, Binayak P.; Springer, Everett P.

    2008-08-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been used for some time now to estimate soil hydraulic parameters from other available or more easily measurable soil properties. However, most such uses of ANNs as pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have been at matching spatial scales (1:1) of inputs and outputs. This approach assumes that the outputs are only required at the same scale as the input data. Unfortunately, this is rarely true. Different hydrologic, hydroclimatic, and contaminant transport models require soil hydraulic parameter data at different spatial scales, depending upon their grid sizes. While conventional (deterministic) ANNs have been traditionally used in these studies, the use of Bayesian training of ANNs is a more recent development. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework to derive soil water retention function including its uncertainty at the point or local scale using PTFs trained with coarser-scale Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO)-based soil data. The approach includes an ANN trained with Bayesian techniques as a PTF tool with training and validation data collected across spatial extents (scales) in two different regions in the United States. The two study areas include the Las Cruces Trench site in the Rio Grande basin of New Mexico, and the Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP97) hydrology experimental region in Oklahoma. Each region-specific Bayesian ANN is trained using soil texture and bulk density data from the SSURGO database (scale 1:24,000), and predictions of the soil water contents at different pressure heads with point scale data (1:1) inputs are made. The resulting outputs are corrected for bias using both linear and nonlinear correction techniques. The results show good agreement between the soil water content values measured at the point scale and those predicted by the Bayesian ANN-based PTFs for both the study sites. Overall, Bayesian ANNs coupled with nonlinear bias correction are found to be very suitable tools for deriving soil

  13. Predicting forest insect flight activity: A Bayesian network approach.

    PubMed

    Pawson, Stephen M; Marcot, Bruce G; Woodberry, Owen G

    2017-01-01

    Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight activity of three exotic insects, Hylurgus ligniperda, Hylastes ater, and Arhopalus ferus in a managed plantation forest context. Models were built from 7,144 individual hours of insect sampling, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, photon flux density, and temporal data. Discretized meteorological and temporal variables were used to build naïve Bayes tree augmented networks. Calibration results suggested that the H. ater and A. ferus Bayesian network models had the best fit for low Type I and overall errors, and H. ligniperda had the best fit for low Type II errors. Maximum hourly temperature and time since sunrise had the largest influence on H. ligniperda flight activity predictions, whereas time of day and year had the greatest influence on H. ater and A. ferus activity. Type II model errors for the prediction of no flight activity is improved by increasing the model's predictive threshold. Improvements in model performance can be made by further sampling, increasing the sensitivity of the flight intercept traps, and replicating sampling in other regions. Predicting insect flight informs an assessment of the potential phytosanitary risks of wood exports. Quantifying this risk allows mitigation treatments to be targeted to prevent the spread of invasive species via international trade pathways.

  14. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  15. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios. PMID:26858669

  16. Diagnosing Intermittent and Persistent Faults using Static Bayesian Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Megshoel, Ole Jakob

    2010-01-01

    Both intermittent and persistent faults may occur in a wide range of systems. We present in this paper the introduction of intermittent fault handling techniques into ProDiagnose, an algorithm that previously only handled persistent faults. We discuss novel algorithmic techniques as well as how our static Bayesian networks help diagnose, in an integrated manner, a range of intermittent and persistent faults. Through experiments with data from the ADAPT electrical power system test bed, generated as part of the Second International Diagnostic Competition (DXC-10), we show that this novel variant of ProDiagnose diagnoses intermittent faults accurately and quickly, while maintaining strong performance on persistent faults.

  17. Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Paulson, Patrick R; Carroll, Thomas E; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A; Unwin, Stephen D; Hossain, Shamina S

    2011-04-16

    In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The first method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

  18. Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Kathleen E.; Adams, Peter N.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lentz, Erika E.; Brenner, Owen T.

    2015-01-01

    We refine a preliminary Bayesian Network by 1) increasing model experience through additional observations, 2) including anthropogenic modification history, and 3) replacing parameterized wave impact values with maximum run-up elevation. Further, we develop and train a pair of generalized models with an additional dataset encompassing a different storm event, which expands the observations beyond our hindcast objective. We compare the skill of the generalized models against the Nor'Ida specific model formulation, balancing the reduced skill with an expectation of increased transferability. Results of Nor'Ida hindcasts ranged in skill from 0.37 to 0.51 and accuracy of 65.0 to 81.9%.

  19. Immune allied genetic algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Qin; Lin, Feng; Sun, Wei; Chang, KC

    2012-06-01

    Bayesian network (BN) structure learning is a NP-hard problem. In this paper, we present an improved approach to enhance efficiency of BN structure learning. To avoid premature convergence in traditional single-group genetic algorithm (GA), we propose an immune allied genetic algorithm (IAGA) in which the multiple-population and allied strategy are introduced. Moreover, in the algorithm, we apply prior knowledge by injecting immune operator to individuals which can effectively prevent degeneration. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique, we present some experimental results.

  20. Bayesian neural-networks-based evaluation of binary speckle data.

    PubMed

    Toussaint, Udo V; Gori, Silvio; Dose, Volker

    2004-10-01

    We present a new method using Bayesian probability theory and neural networks for the evaluation of speckle interference patterns for an automated analysis of deformation and erosion measurements. The method is applied to the fringe pattern reconstruction of speckle measurements with a Twyman-Green interferometer. Given a binary speckle image, the method returns the fringe pattern without noise, thus removing the need for smoothing and allowing a straightforward unwrapping procedure and determination of the surface shape. Because no parameters have to be adjusted, the method is especially suited for continuous and automated monitoring of surface changes.

  1. Application of Bayesian networks in quantitative risk assessment of subsea blowout preventer operations.

    PubMed

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Zengkai; Tian, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yanzhen; Ji, Renjie

    2013-07-01

    This article proposes a methodology for the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of operations in offshore oil and gas industry. The method involves translating a flow chart of operations into the Bayesian network directly. The proposed methodology consists of five steps. First, the flow chart is translated into a Bayesian network. Second, the influencing factors of the network nodes are classified. Third, the Bayesian network for each factor is established. Fourth, the entire Bayesian network model is established. Lastly, the Bayesian network model is analyzed. Subsequently, five categories of influencing factors, namely, human, hardware, software, mechanical, and hydraulic, are modeled and then added to the main Bayesian network. The methodology is demonstrated through the evaluation of a case study that shows the probability of failure on demand in closing subsea ram blowout preventer operations. The results show that mechanical and hydraulic factors have the most important effects on operation safety. Software and hardware factors have almost no influence, whereas human factors are in between. The results of the sensitivity analysis agree with the findings of the quantitative analysis. The three-axiom-based analysis partially validates the correctness and rationality of the proposed Bayesian network model. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Precise Network Modeling of Systems Genetics Data Using the Bayesian Network Webserver.

    PubMed

    Ziebarth, Jesse D; Cui, Yan

    2017-01-01

    The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW, http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW ) is an integrated platform for Bayesian network modeling of biological datasets. It provides a web-based network modeling environment that seamlessly integrates advanced algorithms for probabilistic causal modeling and reasoning with Bayesian networks. BNW is designed for precise modeling of relatively small networks that contain less than 20 nodes. The structure learning algorithms used by BNW guarantee the discovery of the best (most probable) network structure given the data. To facilitate network modeling across multiple biological levels, BNW provides a very flexible interface that allows users to assign network nodes into different tiers and define the relationships between and within the tiers. This function is particularly useful for modeling systems genetics datasets that often consist of multiscalar heterogeneous genotype-to-phenotype data. BNW enables users to, within seconds or minutes, go from having a simply formatted input file containing a dataset to using a network model to make predictions about the interactions between variables and the potential effects of experimental interventions. In this chapter, we will introduce the functions of BNW and show how to model systems genetics datasets with BNW.

  3. Applying Naive Bayesian Networks to Disease Prediction: a Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Langarizadeh, Mostafa; Moghbeli, Fateme

    2016-10-01

    Naive Bayesian networks (NBNs) are one of the most effective and simplest Bayesian networks for prediction. This paper aims to review published evidence about the application of NBNs in predicting disease and it tries to show NBNs as the fundamental algorithm for the best performance in comparison with other algorithms. PubMed was electronically checked for articles published between 2005 and 2015. For characterizing eligible articles, a comprehensive electronic searching method was conducted. Inclusion criteria were determined based on NBN and its effects on disease prediction. A total of 99 articles were found. After excluding the duplicates (n= 5), the titles and abstracts of 94 articles were skimmed according to the inclusion criteria. Finally, 38 articles remained. They were reviewed in full text and 15 articles were excluded. Eventually, 23 articles were selected which met our eligibility criteria and were included in this study. In this article, the use of NBN in predicting diseases was described. Finally, the results were reported in terms of Accuracy, Sensitivity, Specificity and Area under ROC curve (AUC). The last column in Table 2 shows the differences between NBNs and other algorithms. This systematic review (23 studies, 53,725 patients) indicates that predicting diseases based on a NBN had the best performance in most diseases in comparison with the other algorithms. Finally in most cases NBN works better than other algorithms based on the reported accuracy. The method, termed NBNs is proposed and can efficiently construct a prediction model for disease.

  4. Nuclear charge radii: density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Utama, R.; Chen, Wei-Chia; Piekarewicz, J.

    2016-11-01

    The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. The aim of this study is to explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonstrated the ability of the BNN approach to significantly increase the accuracy of nuclear models in the predictions of nuclear charge radii. However, as many before us, we failed to uncover the underlying physics behind the intriguing behavior of charge radii along the calcium isotopic chain.

  5. Learning Bayesian networks for clinical time series analysis.

    PubMed

    van der Heijden, Maarten; Velikova, Marina; Lucas, Peter J F

    2014-04-01

    Autonomous chronic disease management requires models that are able to interpret time series data from patients. However, construction of such models by means of machine learning requires the availability of costly health-care data, often resulting in small samples. We analysed data from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients with the goal of constructing a model to predict the occurrence of exacerbation events, i.e., episodes of decreased pulmonary health status. Data from 10 COPD patients, gathered with our home monitoring system, were used for temporal Bayesian network learning, combined with bootstrapping methods for data analysis of small data samples. For comparison a temporal variant of augmented naive Bayes models and a temporal nodes Bayesian network (TNBN) were constructed. The performances of the methods were first tested with synthetic data. Subsequently, different COPD models were compared to each other using an external validation data set. The model learning methods are capable of finding good predictive models for our COPD data. Model averaging over models based on bootstrap replications is able to find a good balance between true and false positive rates on predicting COPD exacerbation events. Temporal naive Bayes offers an alternative that trades some performance for a reduction in computation time and easier interpretation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Applying Naive Bayesian Networks to Disease Prediction: a Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Langarizadeh, Mostafa; Moghbeli, Fateme

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Naive Bayesian networks (NBNs) are one of the most effective and simplest Bayesian networks for prediction. Objective: This paper aims to review published evidence about the application of NBNs in predicting disease and it tries to show NBNs as the fundamental algorithm for the best performance in comparison with other algorithms. Methods: PubMed was electronically checked for articles published between 2005 and 2015. For characterizing eligible articles, a comprehensive electronic searching method was conducted. Inclusion criteria were determined based on NBN and its effects on disease prediction. A total of 99 articles were found. After excluding the duplicates (n= 5), the titles and abstracts of 94 articles were skimmed according to the inclusion criteria. Finally, 38 articles remained. They were reviewed in full text and 15 articles were excluded. Eventually, 23 articles were selected which met our eligibility criteria and were included in this study. Result: In this article, the use of NBN in predicting diseases was described. Finally, the results were reported in terms of Accuracy, Sensitivity, Specificity and Area under ROC curve (AUC). The last column in Table 2 shows the differences between NBNs and other algorithms. Discussion: This systematic review (23 studies, 53,725 patients) indicates that predicting diseases based on a NBN had the best performance in most diseases in comparison with the other algorithms. Finally in most cases NBN works better than other algorithms based on the reported accuracy. Conclusion: The method, termed NBNs is proposed and can efficiently construct a prediction model for disease. PMID:28077895

  7. Integrating Bayesian networks and geographic information systems: good practice examples.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Sandra; Low-Choy, Sama; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2012-07-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) are becoming increasingly common in problems with spatial aspects. The degree of spatial involvement may range from spatial mapping of BN outputs based on nodes in the BN that explicitly involve geographic features, to integration of different networks based on geographic information. In these situations, it is useful to consider how geographic information systems (GISs) could be used to enhance the conceptualization, quantification, and prediction of BNs. Here, we discuss some techniques that may be used to integrate GIS and BN models, with reference to some recent literature which illustrate these approaches. We then reflect on 2 case studies based on our own experience. The first involves the integration of GIS and a BN to assess the scientific factors associated with initiation of Lyngbya majuscula, a cyanobacterium that occurs in coastal waterways around the world. The 2nd case study involves the use of GISs as an aid for eliciting spatially informed expert opinion and expressing this information as prior distributions for a Bayesian model and as input into a BN. Elicitator, the prototype software package we developed for achieving this, is also briefly described. Whereas the 1st case study demonstrates a GIS-data driven specification of conditional probability tables for BNs with complete geographical coverage for all the data layers involved, the 2nd illustrates a situation in which we do not have complete coverage and we are forced to extrapolate based on expert judgement.

  8. Learning Bayesian networks from big meteorological spatial datasets. An alternative to complex network analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutiérrez, Jose Manuel; San Martín, Daniel; Herrera, Sixto; Santiago Cofiño, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The growing availability of spatial datasets (observations, reanalysis, and regional and global climate models) demands efficient multivariate spatial modeling techniques for many problems of interest (e.g. teleconnection analysis, multi-site downscaling, etc.). Complex networks have been recently applied in this context using graphs built from pairwise correlations between the different stations (or grid boxes) forming the dataset. However, this analysis does not take into account the full dependence structure underlying the data, gien by all possible marginal and conditional dependencies among the stations, and does not allow a probabilistic analysis of the dataset. In this talk we introduce Bayesian networks as an alternative multivariate analysis and modeling data-driven technique which allows building a joint probability distribution of the stations including all relevant dependencies in the dataset. Bayesian networks is a sound machine learning technique using a graph to 1) encode the main dependencies among the variables and 2) to obtain a factorization of the joint probability distribution of the stations given by a reduced number of parameters. For a particular problem, the resulting graph provides a qualitative analysis of the spatial relationships in the dataset (alternative to complex network analysis), and the resulting model allows for a probabilistic analysis of the dataset. Bayesian networks have been widely applied in many fields, but their use in climate problems is hampered by the large number of variables (stations) involved in this field, since the complexity of the existing algorithms to learn from data the graphical structure grows nonlinearly with the number of variables. In this contribution we present a modified local learning algorithm for Bayesian networks adapted to this problem, which allows inferring the graphical structure for thousands of stations (from observations) and/or gridboxes (from model simulations) thus providing new

  9. An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

    2006-01-01

    Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

  10. A Comparison of General Diagnostic Models (GDM) and Bayesian Networks Using a Middle School Mathematics Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Haiyan

    2013-01-01

    General diagnostic models (GDMs) and Bayesian networks are mathematical frameworks that cover a wide variety of psychometric models. Both extend latent class models, and while GDMs also extend item response theory (IRT) models, Bayesian networks can be parameterized using discretized IRT. The purpose of this study is to examine similarities and…

  11. A Comparison of General Diagnostic Models (GDM) and Bayesian Networks Using a Middle School Mathematics Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Haiyan

    2013-01-01

    General diagnostic models (GDMs) and Bayesian networks are mathematical frameworks that cover a wide variety of psychometric models. Both extend latent class models, and while GDMs also extend item response theory (IRT) models, Bayesian networks can be parameterized using discretized IRT. The purpose of this study is to examine similarities and…

  12. Neonatal conjunctivitis

    MedlinePlus

    Newborn conjunctivitis; Conjunctivitis of the newborn; Ophthalmia neonatorum; Eye infection - neonatal conjunctivitis ... diseases spread through sexual contact to prevent newborn conjunctivitis caused by these infections. Putting eye drops into ...

  13. Estimating genome-wide gene networks using nonparametric Bayesian network models on massively parallel computers.

    PubMed

    Tamada, Yoshinori; Imoto, Seiya; Araki, Hiromitsu; Nagasaki, Masao; Print, Cristin; Charnock-Jones, D Stephen; Miyano, Satoru

    2011-01-01

    We present a novel algorithm to estimate genome-wide gene networks consisting of more than 20,000 genes from gene expression data using nonparametric Bayesian networks. Due to the difficulty of learning Bayesian network structures, existing algorithms cannot be applied to more than a few thousand genes. Our algorithm overcomes this limitation by repeatedly estimating subnetworks in parallel for genes selected by neighbor node sampling. Through numerical simulation, we confirmed that our algorithm outperformed a heuristic algorithm in a shorter time. We applied our algorithm to microarray data from human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) treated with siRNAs, to construct a human genome-wide gene network, which we compared to a small gene network estimated for the genes extracted using a traditional bioinformatics method. The results showed that our genome-wide gene network contains many features of the small network, as well as others that could not be captured during the small network estimation. The results also revealed master-regulator genes that are not in the small network but that control many of the genes in the small network. These analyses were impossible to realize without our proposed algorithm.

  14. Bayesian Inference for Duplication–Mutation with Complementarity Network Models

    PubMed Central

    Persing, Adam; Beskos, Alexandros; Heine, Kari; De Iorio, Maria

    2015-01-01

    Abstract We observe an undirected graph G without multiple edges and self-loops, which is to represent a protein–protein interaction (PPI) network. We assume that G evolved under the duplication–mutation with complementarity (DMC) model from a seed graph, G0, and we also observe the binary forest Γ that represents the duplication history of G. A posterior density for the DMC model parameters is established, and we outline a sampling strategy by which one can perform Bayesian inference; that sampling strategy employs a particle marginal Metropolis–Hastings (PMMH) algorithm. We test our methodology on numerical examples to demonstrate a high accuracy and precision in the inference of the DMC model's mutation and homodimerization parameters. PMID:26355682

  15. Aggregated Residential Load Modeling Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Chin, George; Fuller, Jason C.; Lu, Shuai

    2014-09-28

    Abstract—It is already obvious that the future power grid will have to address higher demand for power and energy, and to incorporate renewable resources of different energy generation patterns. Demand response (DR) schemes could successfully be used to manage and balance power supply and demand under operating conditions of the future power grid. To achieve that, more advanced tools for DR management of operations and planning are necessary that can estimate the available capacity from DR resources. In this research, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is derived, trained, and tested that can model aggregated load of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. DBNs can provide flexible and powerful tools for both operations and planing, due to their unique analytical capabilities. The DBN model accuracy and flexibility of use is demonstrated by testing the model under different operational scenarios.

  16. Assessing Requirements Volatility and Risk Using Bayesian Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, Michael S.

    2010-01-01

    There are many factors that affect the level of requirements volatility a system experiences over its lifecycle and the risk that volatility imparts. Improper requirements generation, undocumented user expectations, conflicting design decisions, and anticipated / unanticipated world states are representative of these volatility factors. Combined, these volatility factors can increase programmatic risk and adversely affect successful system development. This paper proposes that a Bayesian Network can be used to support reasonable judgments concerning the most likely sources and types of requirements volatility a developing system will experience prior to starting development and by doing so it is possible to predict the level of requirements volatility the system will experience over its lifecycle. This assessment offers valuable insight to the system's developers, particularly by providing a starting point for risk mitigation planning and execution.

  17. The neighborhood MCMC sampler for learning Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alyami, Salem A.; Azad, A. K. M.; Keith, Jonathan M.

    2016-07-01

    Getting stuck in local maxima is a problem that arises while learning Bayesian networks (BNs) structures. In this paper, we studied a recently proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, called the Neighbourhood sampler (NS), and examined how efficiently it can sample BNs when local maxima are present. We assume that a posterior distribution f(N,E|D) has been defined, where D represents data relevant to the inference, N and E are the sets of nodes and directed edges, respectively. We illustrate the new approach by sampling from such a distribution, and inferring BNs. The simulations conducted in this paper show that the new learning approach substantially avoids getting stuck in local modes of the distribution, and achieves a more rapid rate of convergence, compared to other common algorithms e.g. the MCMC Metropolis-Hastings sampler.

  18. Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Context-Aware Fall Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Koshmak, Gregory; Linden, Maria; Loutfi, Amy

    2014-01-01

    Fall incidents among the elderly often occur in the home and can cause serious injuries affecting their independent living. This paper presents an approach where data from wearable sensors integrated in a smart home environment is combined using a dynamic Bayesian network. The smart home environment provides contextual data, obtained from environmental sensors, and contributes to assessing a fall risk probability. The evaluation of the developed system is performed through simulation. Each time step is represented by a single user activity and interacts with a fall sensors located on a mobile device. A posterior probability is calculated for each recognized activity or contextual information. The output of the system provides a total risk assessment of falling given a response from the fall sensor. PMID:24859032

  19. Bayesian networks in infectious disease eco-epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Lau, Colleen L; Smith, Carl S

    2016-03-01

    Globally, infectious diseases are responsible for a significant burden on human health. Drivers of disease transmission depend on interactions between humans, the environment, vectors, carriers, and pathogens; transmission dynamics are therefore potentially highly complex. Research in infectious disease eco-epidemiology has been rapidly gaining momentum because of the rising global importance of disease emergence and outbreaks, and growing understanding of the intimate links between human health and the environment. The scientific community is increasingly recognising the need for multidisciplinary translational research, integrated approaches, and innovative methods and tools to optimise risk prediction and control measures. Environmental health experts have also identified the need for more advanced analytical and biostatistical approaches to better determine causality, and deal with unknowns and uncertainties inherent in complex systems. In this paper, we discuss the use of Bayesian networks in infectious disease eco-epidemiology, and the potential for developing dynamic tools for public health decision-making and improving intervention strategies.

  20. Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Lawrence L.

    2014-01-01

    In a previous paper, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) events was conducted to ascertain their relevance to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to perhaps several of the AvSP top ten TC. That data also identified several primary causes and contributing factors for RI events that served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events. The system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of RI events in particular, and to improve runway safety in general. The development, structure and assessment of that BBN for RI events by a Subject Matter Expert panel are documented in this paper.

  1. On the Classification Performance of TAN and General Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madden, Michael G.

    Over a decade ago, Friedmanet al. introduced the Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes (TAN) classifier, with experiments indicating that it significantly outperformed Naïve Bayes (NB) in terms of classification accuracy, whereas general Bayesian network (GBN) classifiers performed no better than NB. This paper challenges those claims, using a careful experimental analysis to show that GBN classifiers significantly outperform NB on datasets analyzed, and are comparable to TAN performance. It is found that the poor performance reported by Friedman et al. are not attributable to the GBN per se, but rather to their use of simple empirical frequencies to estimate GBN parameters, whereas basic parameter smoothing (used in their TAN analyses but not their GBN analyses) improves GBN performance significantly. It is concluded that, while GBN classifiers may have some limitations, they deserve greater attention, particularly in domains where insight into classification decisions, as well as good accuracy, is required.

  2. General inference algorithm of Bayesian networks based on clique tree

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Haijun; Liu, Xiao

    2008-10-01

    A general inference algorithm which based on exact algorithm of clique tree and importance sampling principle was put forward this article. It applied advantages of two algorithms, made information transfer from one clique to another, but don't calculate exact interim result. It calculated and dealt with the information using approximate algorithm, calculated the information from one clique to another using current potential. Because this algorithm was an iterative course of improvement, this continuous ran could increases potential of each clique, and produced much more exact information. Hybrid Bayesian Networks inference algorithm based on general softmax function could deal whit any function for CPD, and could be applicable for any models. Simulation test proved that the effect of classification was fine.

  3. Modeling the user preference on broadcasting contents using Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Sanggil; Lim, Jeongyeon; Kim, Munchurl

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new supervised learning method of a Bayesian network for user preference models. Unlike other preference models, our method traces the trend of a user preference as time passes. It allows us to do online learning so we do not need the exhaustive data collection. The tracing of the trend can be done by modifying the frequency of attributes in order to force the old preference to be correlated with the current preference under the assumption that the current preference is correlated with the near future preference. The objective of our learning method is to force the mutual information to be reinforced by modifying the frequency of the attributes in the old preference by providing weights to the attributes. With developing mathematical derivation of our learning method, experimental results on the learning and reasoning performance on TV genre preference using a real set of TV program watching history data.

  4. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures.

  5. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    SciTech Connect

    Price, Layne C.; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Frazer, Jonathan; Easther, Richard E-mail: h.peiris@ucl.ac.uk E-mail: r.easther@auckland.ac.nz

    2016-02-01

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use N{sub f}-quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of e-folds N{sub *} between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  6. Modeling Women's Menstrual Cycles using PICI Gates in Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Zagorecki, Adam; Łupińska-Dubicka, Anna; Voortman, Mark; Druzdzel, Marek J

    2016-03-01

    A major difficulty in building Bayesian network (BN) models is the size of conditional probability tables, which grow exponentially in the number of parents. One way of dealing with this problem is through parametric conditional probability distributions that usually require only a number of parameters that is linear in the number of parents. In this paper, we introduce a new class of parametric models, the Probabilistic Independence of Causal Influences (PICI) models, that aim at lowering the number of parameters required to specify local probability distributions, but are still capable of efficiently modeling a variety of interactions. A subset of PICI models is decomposable and this leads to significantly faster inference as compared to models that cannot be decomposed. We present an application of the proposed method to learning dynamic BNs for modeling a woman's menstrual cycle. We show that PICI models are especially useful for parameter learning from small data sets and lead to higher parameter accuracy than when learning CPTs.

  7. Discrete Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis of fMRI Data

    PubMed Central

    Burge, John; Lane, Terran; Link, Hamilton; Qiu, Shibin; Clark, Vincent P.

    2010-01-01

    We examine the efficacy of using discrete Dynamic Bayesian Networks (dDBNs), a data-driven modeling technique employed in machine learning, to identify functional correlations among neuroanatomical regions of interest. Unlike many neuroimaging analysis techniques, this method is not limited by linear and/or Gaussian noise assumptions. It achieves this by modeling the time series of neuroanatomical regions as discrete, as opposed to continuous, random variables with multinomial distributions. We demonstrated this method using an fMRI dataset collected from healthy and demented elderly subjects and identify correlates based on a diagnosis of dementia. The results are validated in three ways. First, the elicited correlates are shown to be robust over leave-one-out cross-validation and, via a Fourier bootstrapping method, that they were not likely due to random chance. Second, the dDBNs identified correlates that would be expected given the experimental paradigm. Third, the dDBN's ability to predict dementia is competitive with two commonly employed machine-learning classifiers: the support vector machine and the Gaussian naïve Bayesian network. We also verify that the dDBN selects correlates based on non-linear criteria. Finally, we provide a brief analysis of the correlates elicited from Buckner et al.'s data that suggests that demented elderly subjects have reduced involvement of entorhinal and occipital cortex and greater involvement of the parietal lobe and amygdala in brain activity compared with healthy elderly (as measured via functional correlations among BOLD measurements). Limitations and extensions to the dDBN method are discussed. PMID:17990301

  8. Bayesian network analyses of resistance pathways against efavirenz and nevirapine.

    PubMed

    Deforche, Koen; Camacho, Ricardo J; Grossman, Zehave; Soares, Marcelo A; Van Laethem, Kristel; Katzenstein, David A; Harrigan, P Richard; Kantor, Rami; Shafer, Robert; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke

    2008-10-18

    To clarify the role of novel mutations selected by treatment with efavirenz or nevirapine, and investigate the influence of HIV-1 subtype on nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (nNRTI) resistance pathways. By finding direct dependencies between treatment-selected mutations, the involvement of these mutations as minor or major resistance mutations against efavirenz, nevirapine, or coadministrated nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) is hypothesized. In addition, direct dependencies were investigated between treatment-selected mutations and polymorphisms, some of which are linked with subtype, and between NRTI and nNRTI resistance pathways. Sequences from a large collaborative database of various subtypes were jointly analyzed to detect mutations selected by treatment. Using Bayesian network learning, direct dependencies were investigated between treatment-selected mutations, NRTI and nNRTI treatment history, and known NRTI resistance mutations. Several novel minor resistance mutations were found: 28K and 196R (for resistance against efavirenz), 101H and 138Q (nevirapine), and 31L (lamivudine). Robust interactions between NRTI mutations (65R, 74V, 75I/M, and 184V) and nNRTI resistance mutations (100I, 181C, 190E and 230L) may affect resistance development to particular treatment combinations. For example, an interaction between 65R and 181C predicts that the nevirapine and tenofovir and lamivudine/emtricitabine combination should be more prone to failure than efavirenz and tenofovir and lamivudine/emtricitabine. Bayesian networks were helpful in untangling the selection of mutations by NRTI versus nNRTI treatment, and in discovering interactions between resistance mutations within and between these two classes of inhibitors.

  9. Learning Predictive Interactions Using Information Gain and Bayesian Network Scoring

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Xia; Jao, Jeremy; Neapolitan, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Background The problems of correlation and classification are long-standing in the fields of statistics and machine learning, and techniques have been developed to address these problems. We are now in the era of high-dimensional data, which is data that can concern billions of variables. These data present new challenges. In particular, it is difficult to discover predictive variables, when each variable has little marginal effect. An example concerns Genome-wide Association Studies (GWAS) datasets, which involve millions of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs), where some of the SNPs interact epistatically to affect disease status. Towards determining these interacting SNPs, researchers developed techniques that addressed this specific problem. However, the problem is more general, and so these techniques are applicable to other problems concerning interactions. A difficulty with many of these techniques is that they do not distinguish whether a learned interaction is actually an interaction or whether it involves several variables with strong marginal effects. Methodology/Findings We address this problem using information gain and Bayesian network scoring. First, we identify candidate interactions by determining whether together variables provide more information than they do separately. Then we use Bayesian network scoring to see if a candidate interaction really is a likely model. Our strategy is called MBS-IGain. Using 100 simulated datasets and a real GWAS Alzheimer’s dataset, we investigated the performance of MBS-IGain. Conclusions/Significance When analyzing the simulated datasets, MBS-IGain substantially out-performed nine previous methods at locating interacting predictors, and at identifying interactions exactly. When analyzing the real Alzheimer’s dataset, we obtained new results and results that substantiated previous findings. We conclude that MBS-IGain is highly effective at finding interactions in high-dimensional datasets. This result is

  10. Bayesian Neural Networks for Ray Reconstruction of Spectrographs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchera, M. P.; Bazin, D.; Sherrill, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    Spectrograph ray reconstruction is an important consideration for data analysis of many modern spectrometer experiments. Typically, calculated inverse ion-optical maps are used to reconstruct ion trajectories through a magnetic system. A standard practice is to calculate ion-optical maps using programs such as COSY Infinity and then use a procedure to invert these maps. The inverse maps are used to reconstruct ion parameters at the object location from measurements at the spectrograph focal plane. This presentation will present our exploration of an alternate method, namely, the use of Bayesian Neural Networks, BNN, for the construction of transport maps using experimental data. In order to study the effectiveness of the training of the neural network, COSY Infinity maps were used to generate training data for the S800 spectrograph at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory. BNNs were trained from this generated data, where the exact map is known, and a study of the method will be presented. Among the factors that will be reported are an accuracy of the BNN mapping, a study of the amount of training data necessary to construct an accurate BNN, and what level of precision in the training data is necessary for an accurate mapping. Spectrograph ray reconstruction is an important consideration for data analysis of many modern spectrometer experiments. Typically, calculated inverse ion-optical maps are used to reconstruct ion trajectories through a magnetic system. A standard practice is to calculate ion-optical maps using programs such as COSY Infinity and then use a procedure to invert these maps. The inverse maps are used to reconstruct ion parameters at the object location from measurements at the spectrograph focal plane. This presentation will present our exploration of an alternate method, namely, the use of Bayesian Neural Networks, BNN, for the construction of transport maps using experimental data. In order to study the effectiveness of the training

  11. Construction of gene regulatory networks using biclustering and bayesian networks

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Understanding gene interactions in complex living systems can be seen as the ultimate goal of the systems biology revolution. Hence, to elucidate disease ontology fully and to reduce the cost of drug development, gene regulatory networks (GRNs) have to be constructed. During the last decade, many GRN inference algorithms based on genome-wide data have been developed to unravel the complexity of gene regulation. Time series transcriptomic data measured by genome-wide DNA microarrays are traditionally used for GRN modelling. One of the major problems with microarrays is that a dataset consists of relatively few time points with respect to the large number of genes. Dimensionality is one of the interesting problems in GRN modelling. Results In this paper, we develop a biclustering function enrichment analysis toolbox (BicAT-plus) to study the effect of biclustering in reducing data dimensions. The network generated from our system was validated via available interaction databases and was compared with previous methods. The results revealed the performance of our proposed method. Conclusions Because of the sparse nature of GRNs, the results of biclustering techniques differ significantly from those of previous methods. PMID:22018164

  12. Technical Topic 3.2.2.d Bayesian and Non-Parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural Networks with Bayesian Networks for Data Fusion and Predictive Modeling

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-05-31

    information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. West Virginia University...Integration of Neural Networks with Bayesian Networks for Data Fusion and Predictive Modeling Dr. Suzanne Bell, West Virginia University 1. Basis of the

  13. PedExpert: a computer program for the application of Bayesian networks to human paternity testing.

    PubMed

    Gomes, R R; Campos, S V A; Pena, S D J

    2009-01-01

    PedExpert is a Windows-based Bayesian network software, especially constructed to solve problems in parentage testing that are complex because of missing genetic information on the alleged father and/or because they involve genetic mutations. PedExpert automates the creation and manipulation of Bayesian networks, implementing algorithms that convert pedigrees and sets of indispensable information (genotypes, allele frequencies, mutation rates) into Bayesian networks. This program has a novel feature that can incorporate information about gene mutations into tables of conditional probabilities of transmission of alleles from the alleged father to the child, without adding new nodes to the network. This permits using the same Bayesian network in different modes, for analysis of cases that include mutations or not. PedExpert is user-friendly and greatly reduces the time of analysis for complex cases of paternity testing, eliminating most sources of logical and operational error.

  14. Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy

    2014-01-01

    Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

  15. Learning genetic epistasis using Bayesian network scoring criteria

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Gene-gene epistatic interactions likely play an important role in the genetic basis of many common diseases. Recently, machine-learning and data mining methods have been developed for learning epistatic relationships from data. A well-known combinatorial method that has been successfully applied for detecting epistasis is Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR). Jiang et al. created a combinatorial epistasis learning method called BNMBL to learn Bayesian network (BN) epistatic models. They compared BNMBL to MDR using simulated data sets. Each of these data sets was generated from a model that associates two SNPs with a disease and includes 18 unrelated SNPs. For each data set, BNMBL and MDR were used to score all 2-SNP models, and BNMBL learned significantly more correct models. In real data sets, we ordinarily do not know the number of SNPs that influence phenotype. BNMBL may not perform as well if we also scored models containing more than two SNPs. Furthermore, a number of other BN scoring criteria have been developed. They may detect epistatic interactions even better than BNMBL. Although BNs are a promising tool for learning epistatic relationships from data, we cannot confidently use them in this domain until we determine which scoring criteria work best or even well when we try learning the correct model without knowledge of the number of SNPs in that model. Results We evaluated the performance of 22 BN scoring criteria using 28,000 simulated data sets and a real Alzheimer's GWAS data set. Our results were surprising in that the Bayesian scoring criterion with large values of a hyperparameter called α performed best. This score performed better than other BN scoring criteria and MDR at recall using simulated data sets, at detecting the hardest-to-detect models using simulated data sets, and at substantiating previous results using the real Alzheimer's data set. Conclusions We conclude that representing epistatic interactions using BN models

  16. Gene network inference using continuous time Bayesian networks: a comparative study and application to Th17 cell differentiation.

    PubMed

    Acerbi, Enzo; Zelante, Teresa; Narang, Vipin; Stella, Fabio

    2014-12-11

    Dynamic aspects of gene regulatory networks are typically investigated by measuring system variables at multiple time points. Current state-of-the-art computational approaches for reconstructing gene networks directly build on such data, making a strong assumption that the system evolves in a synchronous fashion at fixed points in time. However, nowadays omics data are being generated with increasing time course granularity. Thus, modellers now have the possibility to represent the system as evolving in continuous time and to improve the models' expressiveness. Continuous time Bayesian networks are proposed as a new approach for gene network reconstruction from time course expression data. Their performance was compared to two state-of-the-art methods: dynamic Bayesian networks and Granger causality analysis. On simulated data, the methods comparison was carried out for networks of increasing size, for measurements taken at different time granularity densities and for measurements unevenly spaced over time. Continuous time Bayesian networks outperformed the other methods in terms of the accuracy of regulatory interactions learnt from data for all network sizes. Furthermore, their performance degraded smoothly as the size of the network increased. Continuous time Bayesian networks were significantly better than dynamic Bayesian networks for all time granularities tested and better than Granger causality for dense time series. Both continuous time Bayesian networks and Granger causality performed robustly for unevenly spaced time series, with no significant loss of performance compared to the evenly spaced case, while the same did not hold true for dynamic Bayesian networks. The comparison included the IRMA experimental datasets which confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed method. Continuous time Bayesian networks were then applied to elucidate the regulatory mechanisms controlling murine T helper 17 (Th17) cell differentiation and were found to be effective in

  17. Making Supply Chains Resilient to Floods Using a Bayesian Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haraguchi, M.

    2015-12-01

    Natural hazards distress the global economy by disrupting the interconnected supply chain networks. Manufacturing companies have created cost-efficient supply chains by reducing inventories, streamlining logistics and limiting the number of suppliers. As a result, today's supply chains are profoundly susceptible to systemic risks. In Thailand, for example, the GDP growth rate declined by 76 % in 2011 due to prolonged flooding. Thailand incurred economic damage including the loss of USD 46.5 billion, approximately 70% of which was caused by major supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing sector. Similar problems occurred after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, the Mississippi River floods and droughts during 2011 - 2013, and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This study proposes a methodology for modeling supply chain disruptions using a Bayesian network analysis (BNA) to estimate expected values of countermeasures of floods, such as inventory management, supplier management and hard infrastructure management. We first performed a spatio-temporal correlation analysis between floods and extreme precipitation data for the last 100 years at a global scale. Then we used a BNA to create synthetic networks that include variables associated with the magnitude and duration of floods, major components of supply chains and market demands. We also included decision variables of countermeasures that would mitigate potential losses caused by supply chain disruptions. Finally, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis by estimating the expected values of these potential countermeasures while conducting a sensitivity analysis. The methodology was applied to supply chain disruptions caused by the 2011 Thailand floods. Our study demonstrates desirable typical data requirements for the analysis, such as anonymized supplier network data (i.e. critical dependencies, vulnerability information of suppliers) and sourcing data(i.e. locations of suppliers, and production rates and

  18. Enhancing debris flow modeling parameters integrating Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graf, C.; Stoffel, M.; Grêt-Regamey, A.

    2009-04-01

    Applied debris-flow modeling requires suitably constraint input parameter sets. Depending on the used model, there is a series of parameters to define before running the model. Normally, the data base describing the event, the initiation conditions, the flow behavior, the deposition process and mainly the potential range of possible debris flow events in a certain torrent is limited. There are only some scarce places in the world, where we fortunately can find valuable data sets describing event history of debris flow channels delivering information on spatial and temporal distribution of former flow paths and deposition zones. Tree-ring records in combination with detailed geomorphic mapping for instance provide such data sets over a long time span. Considering the significant loss potential associated with debris-flow disasters, it is crucial that decisions made in regard to hazard mitigation are based on a consistent assessment of the risks. This in turn necessitates a proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the modeling of the debris-flow frequencies and intensities, the possible run out extent, as well as the estimations of the damage potential. In this study, we link a Bayesian network to a Geographic Information System in order to assess debris-flow risk. We identify the major sources of uncertainty and show the potential of Bayesian inference techniques to improve the debris-flow model. We model the flow paths and deposition zones of a highly active debris-flow channel in the Swiss Alps using the numerical 2-D model RAMMS. Because uncertainties in run-out areas cause large changes in risk estimations, we use the data of flow path and deposition zone information of reconstructed debris-flow events derived from dendrogeomorphological analysis covering more than 400 years to update the input parameters of the RAMMS model. The probabilistic model, which consistently incorporates this available information, can serve as a basis for spatial risk

  19. Rational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks.

    PubMed

    Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    Belief polarization is said to occur when two people respond to the same evidence by updating their beliefs in opposite directions. This response is considered to be "irrational" because it involves contrary updating, a form of belief updating that appears to violate normatively optimal responding, as for example dictated by Bayes' theorem. In light of much evidence that people are capable of normatively optimal behavior, belief polarization presents a puzzling exception. We show that Bayesian networks, or Bayes nets, can simulate rational belief updating. When fit to experimental data, Bayes nets can help identify the factors that contribute to polarization. We present a study into belief updating concerning the reality of climate change in response to information about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The study used representative samples of Australian and U.S. Among Australians, consensus information partially neutralized the influence of worldview, with free-market supporters showing a greater increase in acceptance of human-caused global warming relative to free-market opponents. In contrast, while consensus information overall had a positive effect on perceived consensus among U.S. participants, there was a reduction in perceived consensus and acceptance of human-caused global warming for strong supporters of unregulated free markets. Fitting a Bayes net model to the data indicated that under a Bayesian framework, free-market support is a significant driver of beliefs about climate change and trust in climate scientists. Further, active distrust of climate scientists among a small number of U.S. conservatives drives contrary updating in response to consensus information among this particular group. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  20. Knowledge Discovery Using Bayesian Network Framework for Intelligent Telecommunication Network Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bashar, Abul; Parr, Gerard; McClean, Sally; Scotney, Bryan; Nauck, Detlef

    The ever-evolving nature of telecommunication networks has put enormous pressure on contemporary Network Management Systems (NMSs) to come up with improved functionalities for efficient monitoring, control and management. In such a context, the rapid deployments of Next Generation Networks (NGN) and their management requires intelligent, autonomic and resilient mechanisms to guarantee Quality of Service (QoS) to the end users and at the same time to maximize revenue for the service/network providers. We present a framework for evaluating a Bayesian Networks (BN) based Decision Support System (DSS) for assisting and improving the performance of a Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP) based NMS. More specifically, we describe our methodology through a case study which implements the function of Call Admission Control (CAC) in a multi-class video conferencing service scenario. Simulation results are presented for a proof of concept, followed by a critical analysis of our proposed approach and its application.

  1. A Bayesian Belief Network of Threat Anticipation and Terrorist Motivations

    SciTech Connect

    Olama, Mohammed M; Allgood, Glenn O; Davenport, Kristen M; Schryver, Jack C

    2010-01-01

    Recent events highlight the need for efficient tools for anticipating the threat posed by terrorists, whether individual or groups. Antiterrorism includes fostering awareness of potential threats, deterring aggressors, developing security measures, planning for future events, halting an event in process, and ultimately mitigating and managing the consequences of an event. To analyze such components, one must understand various aspects of threat elements like physical assets and their economic and social impacts. To this aim, we developed a three-layer Bayesian belief network (BBN) model that takes into consideration the relative threat of an attack against a particular asset (physical layer) as well as the individual psychology and motivations that would induce a person to either act alone or join a terrorist group and commit terrorist acts (social and economic layers). After researching the many possible motivations to become a terrorist, the main factors are compiled and sorted into categories such as initial and personal indicators, exclusion factors, and predictive behaviors. Assessing such threats requires combining information from disparate data sources most of which involve uncertainties. BBN combines these data in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner. The developed BBN model takes into consideration the likelihood and consequence of a threat in order to draw inferences about the risk of a terrorist attack so that mitigation efforts can be optimally deployed. The model is constructed using a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of all the BBN nodes within the broader context of the system development process.

  2. A Bayesian belief network of threat anticipation and terrorist motivations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olama, Mohammed M.; Allgood, Glenn O.; Davenport, Kristen M.; Schryver, Jack C.

    2010-04-01

    Recent events highlight the need for efficient tools for anticipating the threat posed by terrorists, whether individual or groups. Antiterrorism includes fostering awareness of potential threats, deterring aggressors, developing security measures, planning for future events, halting an event in process, and ultimately mitigating and managing the consequences of an event. To analyze such components, one must understand various aspects of threat elements like physical assets and their economic and social impacts. To this aim, we developed a three-layer Bayesian belief network (BBN) model that takes into consideration the relative threat of an attack against a particular asset (physical layer) as well as the individual psychology and motivations that would induce a person to either act alone or join a terrorist group and commit terrorist acts (social and economic layers). After researching the many possible motivations to become a terrorist, the main factors are compiled and sorted into categories such as initial and personal indicators, exclusion factors, and predictive behaviors. Assessing such threats requires combining information from disparate data sources most of which involve uncertainties. BBN combines these data in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner. The developed BBN model takes into consideration the likelihood and consequence of a threat in order to draw inferences about the risk of a terrorist attack so that mitigation efforts can be optimally deployed. The model is constructed using a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of all the BBN nodes within the broader context of the system development process.

  3. On Bayesian Network Classifiers with Reduced Precision Parameters.

    PubMed

    Tschiatschek, Sebastian; Pernkopf, Franz

    2015-04-01

    Bayesian network classifier (BNCs) are typically implemented on nowadays desktop computers. However, many real world applications require classifier implementation on embedded or low power systems. Aspects for this purpose have not been studied rigorously. We partly close this gap by analyzing reduced precision implementations of BNCs. In detail, we investigate the quantization of the parameters of BNCs with discrete valued nodes including the implications on the classification rate (CR). We derive worst-case and probabilistic bounds on the CR for different bit-widths. These bounds are evaluated on several benchmark datasets. Furthermore, we compare the classification performance and the robustness of BNCs with generatively and discriminatively optimized parameters, i.e. parameters optimized for high data likelihood and parameters optimized for classification, with respect to parameter quantization. Generatively optimized parameters are more robust for very low bit-widths, i.e. less classifications change because of quantization. However, classification performance is better for discriminatively optimized parameters for all but very low bit-widths. Additionally, we perform analysis for margin-optimized tree augmented network (TAN) structures which outperform generatively optimized TAN structures in terms of CR and robustness.

  4. Deformable Bayesian networks for data clustering and fusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kampa, Kittipat; Principe, Jose C.; Cobb, J. Tory; Rangarajan, Anand

    2011-06-01

    In this work, we propose DEformable BAyesian Networks (DEBAN), a probabilistic graphical model framework where model selection and statistical inference can be viewed as two key ingredients in the same iterative process. While this concept has shown successful results in computer vision community,1-4 our proposed approach generalizes the concept such that it is applicable to any data type. Our goal is to infer the optimal structure/model to fit the given observations. The optimal structure conveys an automatic way to find not only the number of clusters in the data set, but also the multiscale graph structure illustrating the dependence relationship among the variables in the network. Finally, the marginal posterior distribution at each root node is regarded as the fused information of its corresponding observations, and the most probable state can be found from the maximum a posteriori (MAP) solution with the uncertainty of the estimate in the form of a probability distribution which is desired for a variety of applications.

  5. Bayesian Networks for Clinical Decision Support in Lung Cancer Care

    PubMed Central

    Sesen, M. Berkan; Nicholson, Ann E.; Banares-Alcantara, Rene; Kadir, Timor; Brady, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Survival prediction and treatment selection in lung cancer care are characterised by high levels of uncertainty. Bayesian Networks (BNs), which naturally reason with uncertain domain knowledge, can be applied to aid lung cancer experts by providing personalised survival estimates and treatment selection recommendations. Based on the English Lung Cancer Database (LUCADA), we evaluate the feasibility of BNs for these two tasks, while comparing the performances of various causal discovery approaches to uncover the most feasible network structure from expert knowledge and data. We show first that the BN structure elicited from clinicians achieves a disappointing area under the ROC curve of 0.75 (± 0.03), whereas a structure learned by the CAMML hybrid causal discovery algorithm, which adheres with the temporal restrictions, achieves 0.81 (± 0.03). Second, our causal intervention results reveal that BN treatment recommendations, based on prescribing the treatment plan that maximises survival, can only predict the recorded treatment plan 29% of the time. However, this percentage rises to 76% when partial matches are included. PMID:24324773

  6. Bayesian network prior: network analysis of biological data using external knowledge

    PubMed Central

    Isci, Senol; Dogan, Haluk; Ozturk, Cengizhan; Otu, Hasan H.

    2014-01-01

    Motivation: Reverse engineering GI networks from experimental data is a challenging task due to the complex nature of the networks and the noise inherent in the data. One way to overcome these hurdles would be incorporating the vast amounts of external biological knowledge when building interaction networks. We propose a framework where GI networks are learned from experimental data using Bayesian networks (BNs) and the incorporation of external knowledge is also done via a BN that we call Bayesian Network Prior (BNP). BNP depicts the relation between various evidence types that contribute to the event ‘gene interaction’ and is used to calculate the probability of a candidate graph (G) in the structure learning process. Results: Our simulation results on synthetic, simulated and real biological data show that the proposed approach can identify the underlying interaction network with high accuracy even when the prior information is distorted and outperforms existing methods. Availability: Accompanying BNP software package is freely available for academic use at http://bioe.bilgi.edu.tr/BNP. Contact: hasan.otu@bilgi.edu.tr Supplementary Information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:24215027

  7. SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Diamant, A; Ybarra, N; Seuntjens, J; El Naqa, I

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible

  8. Reconstruction of Biological Networks by Incorporating Prior Knowledge into Bayesian Network Models

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Dong-Guk

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Bayesian network model is widely used for reverse engineering of biological network structures. An advantage of this model is its capability to integrate prior knowledge into the model learning process, which can lead to improving the quality of the network reconstruction outcome. Some previous works have explored this area with focus on using prior knowledge of the direct molecular links, except for a few recent ones proposing to examine the effects of molecular orderings. In this study, we propose a Bayesian network model that can integrate both direct links and orderings into the model. Random weights are assigned to these two types of prior knowledge to alleviate bias toward certain types of information. We evaluate our model performance using both synthetic data and biological data for the RAF signaling network, and illustrate the significant improvement on network structure reconstruction of the proposing models over the existing methods. We also examine the correlation between the improvement and the abundance of ordering prior knowledge. To address the issue of generating prior knowledge, we propose an approach to automatically extract potential molecular orderings from knowledge resources such as Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) database and Gene Ontology (GO) annotation. PMID:23210479

  9. Bayesian network modeling applied to coastal geomorphology: lessons learned from a decade of experimentation and application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Gutierrez, B.; Lentz, E. E.; Zeigler, S. L.; Van Dongeren, A.; Fienen, M. N.

    2016-12-01

    We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian networks that have been used to address scientific and decision-support questions related to coastal geomorphology. We will provide an overview of coastal geomorphology research that has used Bayesian networks and describe what this approach can do and when it works (or fails to work). Over the past decade, Bayesian networks have been formulated to analyze the multi-variate structure and evolution of coastal morphology and associated human and ecological impacts. The approach relates observable system variables to each other by estimating discrete correlations. The resulting Bayesian-networks make predictions that propagate errors, conduct inference via Bayes rule, or both. In scientific applications, the model results are useful for hypothesis testing, using confidence estimates to gage the strength of tests while applications to coastal resource management are aimed at decision-support, where the probabilities of desired ecosystems outcomes are evaluated. The range of Bayesian-network applications to coastal morphology includes emulation of high-resolution wave transformation models to make oceanographic predictions, morphologic response to storms and/or sea-level rise, groundwater response to sea-level rise and morphologic variability, habitat suitability for endangered species, and assessment of monetary or human-life risk associated with storms. All of these examples are based on vast observational data sets, numerical model output, or both. We will discuss the progression of our experiments, which has included testing whether the Bayesian-network approach can be implemented and is appropriate for addressing basic and applied scientific problems and evaluating the hindcast and forecast skill of these implementations. We will present and discuss calibration/validation tests that are used to assess the robustness of Bayesian-network models and we will compare these results to tests of other models. This will

  10. Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Make Complex Decisions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-05

    Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Make Complex Decisions A White Paper Highlighting the Capabilities of the...2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Make Complex Decisions 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b...GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S

  11. Probabilistic neural networks using Bayesian decision strategies and a modified Gompertz model for growth phase classification in the batch culture of Bacillus subtilis.

    PubMed

    Simon; Nazmul Karim M

    2001-01-01

    Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) were used in conjunction with the Gompertz model for bacterial growth to classify the lag, logarithmic, and stationary phases in a batch process. Using the fermentation time and the optical density of diluted cell suspensions, sampled from a culture of Bacillus subtilis, PNNs enabled a reliable determination of the growth phases. Based on a Bayesian decision strategy, the Gompertz based PNN used newly proposed definition of the lag and logarithmic phases to estimate the latent, logarithmic and stationary phases. This network topology has the potential for use with on-line turbidimeter for the automation and control of cultivation processes.

  12. Search-and-score structure learning algorithm for Bayesian network classifiers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pernkopf, Franz; O'Leary, Paul

    2003-04-01

    This paper presents a search-and-score approach for determining the network structure of Bayesian network classifiers. A selective unrestricted Bayesian network classifier is used which in combination with the search algorithm allows simultaneous feature selection and determination of the structure of the classifier. The introduced search algorithm enables conditional exclusions of previously added attributes and/or arcs from the network classifier. Hence, this algorithm is able to correct the network structure by removing attributes and/or arcs between the nodes if they become superfluous at a later stage of the search. Classification results of selective unrestricted Bayesian network classifiers are compared to naive Bayes classifiers and tree augmented naive Bayes classifiers. Experiments on different data sets show that selective unrestricted Bayesian network classifiers achieve a better classification accuracy estimate in two domains compared to tree augmented naive Bayes classifiers, whereby in the remaining domains the performance is similar. However, the achieved network structure of selective unrestricted Bayesian network classifiers is simpler and computationally more efficient.

  13. Evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

    PubMed

    Du, Yuanwei; Guo, Yubin

    2015-01-01

    The intrinsic mechanism of multimorbidity is difficult to recognize and prediction and diagnosis are difficult to carry out accordingly. Bayesian networks can help to diagnose multimorbidity in health care, but it is difficult to obtain the conditional probability table (CPT) because of the lack of clinically statistical data. Today, expert knowledge and experience are increasingly used in training Bayesian networks in order to help predict or diagnose diseases, but the CPT in Bayesian networks is usually irrational or ineffective for ignoring realistic constraints especially in multimorbidity. In order to solve these problems, an evidence reasoning (ER) approach is employed to extract and fuse inference data from experts using a belief distribution and recursive ER algorithm, based on which evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in Bayesian network of multimorbidity is presented step by step. A multimorbidity numerical example is used to demonstrate the method and prove its feasibility and application. Bayesian network can be determined as long as the inference assessment is inferred by each expert according to his/her knowledge or experience. Our method is more effective than existing methods for extracting expert inference data accurately and is fused effectively for constructing CPTs in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

  14. Utilization of extended bayesian networks in decision making under uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Van Eeckhout, Edward M; Leishman, Deborah A; Gibson, William L

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian network tool (called IKE for Integrated Knowledge Engine) has been developed to assess the probability of undesirable events. The tool allows indications and observables from sensors and/or intelligence to feed directly into hypotheses of interest, thus allowing one to quantify the probability and uncertainty of these events resulting from very disparate evidence. For example, the probability that a facility is processing nuclear fuel or assembling a weapon can be assessed by examining the processes required, establishing the observables that should be present, then assembling information from intelligence, sensors and other information sources related to the observables. IKE also has the capability to determine tasking plans, that is, prioritize which observable should be collected next to most quickly ascertain the 'true' state and drive the probability toward 'zero' or 'one.' This optimization capability is called 'evidence marshaling.' One example to be discussed is a denied facility monitoring situation; there is concern that certain process(es) are being executed at the site (due to some intelligence or other data). We will show how additional pieces of evidence will then ascertain with some degree of certainty the likelihood of this process(es) as each piece of evidence is obtained. This example shows how both intelligence and sensor data can be incorporated into the analysis. A second example involves real-time perimeter security. For this demonstration we used seismic, acoustic, and optical sensors linked back to IKE. We show how these sensors identified and assessed the likelihood of 'intruder' versus friendly vehicles.

  15. Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fienen, Michael N.; Masterson, John P.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

  16. Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

  17. Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.

    PubMed

    Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj

    2017-01-05

    Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Bayesian network models in brain functional connectivity analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Sheng; Li, Chiang-shan R.

    2013-01-01

    Much effort has been made to better understand the complex integration of distinct parts of the human brain using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Altered functional connectivity between brain regions is associated with many neurological and mental illnesses, such as Alzheimer and Parkinson diseases, addiction, and depression. In computational science, Bayesian networks (BN) have been used in a broad range of studies to model complex data set in the presence of uncertainty and when expert prior knowledge is needed. However, little is done to explore the use of BN in connectivity analysis of fMRI data. In this paper, we present an up-to-date literature review and methodological details of connectivity analyses using BN, while highlighting caveats in a real-world application. We present a BN model of fMRI dataset obtained from sixty healthy subjects performing the stop-signal task (SST), a paradigm widely used to investigate response inhibition. Connectivity results are validated with the extant literature including our previous studies. By exploring the link strength of the learned BN’s and correlating them to behavioral performance measures, this novel use of BN in connectivity analysis provides new insights to the functional neural pathways underlying response inhibition. PMID:24319317

  19. Heterogeneous multimodal biomarkers analysis for Alzheimer's disease via Bayesian network.

    PubMed

    Jin, Yan; Su, Yi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Huang, Shuai

    2016-12-01

    By 2050, it is estimated that the number of worldwide Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients will quadruple from the current number of 36 million, while no proven disease-modifying treatments are available. At present, the underlying disease mechanisms remain under investigation, and recent studies suggest that the disease involves multiple etiological pathways. To better understand the disease and develop treatment strategies, a number of ongoing studies including the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) enroll many study participants and acquire a large number of biomarkers from various modalities including demographic, genotyping, fluid biomarkers, neuroimaging, neuropsychometric test, and clinical assessments. However, a systematic approach that can integrate all the collected data is lacking. The overarching goal of our study is to use machine learning techniques to understand the relationships among different biomarkers and to establish a system-level model that can better describe the interactions among biomarkers and provide superior diagnostic and prognostic information. In this pilot study, we use Bayesian network (BN) to analyze multimodal data from ADNI, including demographics, volumetric MRI, PET, genotypes, and neuropsychometric measurements and demonstrate our approach to have superior prediction accuracy.

  20. Classification of Maize and Weeds by Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapron, Michel; Oprea, Alina; Sultana, Bogdan; Assemat, Louis

    2007-11-01

    Precision Agriculture is concerned with all sorts of within-field variability, spatially and temporally, that reduces the efficacy of agronomic practices applied in a uniform way all over the field. Because of these sources of heterogeneity, uniform management actions strongly reduce the efficiency of the resource input to the crop (i.e. fertilization, water) or for the agrochemicals use for pest control (i.e. herbicide). Moreover, this low efficacy means high environmental cost (pollution) and reduced economic return for the farmer. Weed plants are one of these sources of variability for the crop, as they occur in patches in the field. Detecting the location, size and internal density of these patches, along with identification of main weed species involved, open the way to a site-specific weed control strategy, where only patches of weeds would receive the appropriate herbicide (type and dose). Herein, an automatic recognition method of vegetal species is described. First, the pixels of soil and vegetation are classified in two classes, then the vegetation part of the input image is segmented from the distance image by using the watershed method and finally the leaves of the vegetation are partitioned in two parts maize and weeds thanks to the two Bayesian networks.

  1. Structure Learning of Bayesian Networks Using Dual Genetic Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jaehun; Chung, Wooyong; Kim, Euntai

    A new structure learning approach for Bayesian networks (BNs) based on dual genetic algorithm (DGA) is proposed in this paper. An individual of the population is represented as a dual chromosome composed of two chromosomes. The first chromosome represents the ordering among the BN nodes and the second represents the conditional dependencies among the ordered BN nodes. It is rigorously shown that there is no BN structure that cannot be encoded by the proposed dual genetic encoding and the proposed encoding explores the entire solution space of the BN structures. In contrast with existing GA-based structure learning methods, the proposed method learns not only the topology of the BN nodes, but also the ordering among the BN nodes, thereby, exploring the wider solution space of a given problem than the existing method. The dual genetic operators are closed in the set of the admissible individuals. The proposed method is applied to real-world and benchmark applications, while its effectiveness is demonstrated through computer simulation.

  2. A Tractable Method for Measuring Nanomaterial Risk Using Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, Finbarr; Sheehan, Barry; Mullins, Martin; Bouwmeester, Hans; Marvin, Hans J. P.; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Costa, Anna L.; Das, Rasel; Stone, Vicki; Tofail, Syed A. M.

    2016-11-01

    While control banding has been identified as a suitable framework for the evaluation and the determination of potential human health risks associated with exposure to nanomaterials (NMs), the approach currently lacks any implementation that enjoys widespread support. Large inconsistencies in characterisation data, toxicological measurements and exposure scenarios make it difficult to map and compare the risk associated with NMs based on physicochemical data, concentration and exposure route. Here we demonstrate the use of Bayesian networks as a reliable tool for NM risk estimation. This tool is tractable, accessible and scalable. Most importantly, it captures a broad span of data types, from complete, high quality data sets through to data sets with missing data and/or values with a relatively high spread of probability distribution. The tool is able to learn iteratively in order to further refine forecasts as the quality of data available improves. We demonstrate how this risk measurement approach works on NMs with varying degrees of risk potential, namely, carbon nanotubes, silver and titanium dioxide. The results afford even non-experts an accurate picture of the occupational risk probabilities associated with these NMs and, in doing so, demonstrated how NM risk can be evaluated into a tractable, quantitative risk comparator.

  3. CRAFFT: An Activity Prediction Model based on Bayesian Networks.

    PubMed

    Nazerfard, Ehsan; Cook, Diane J

    2015-04-01

    Recent advances in the areas of pervasive computing, data mining, and machine learning offer unique opportunities to provide health monitoring and assistance for individuals facing difficulties to live independently in their homes. Several components have to work together to provide health monitoring for smart home residents including, but not limited to, activity recognition, activity discovery, activity prediction, and prompting system. Compared to the significant research done to discover and recognize activities, less attention has been given to predict the future activities that the resident is likely to perform. Activity prediction components can play a major role in design of a smart home. For instance, by taking advantage of an activity prediction module, a smart home can learn context-aware rules to prompt individuals to initiate important activities. In this paper, we propose an activity prediction model using Bayesian networks together with a novel two-step inference process to predict both the next activity features and the next activity label. We also propose an approach to predict the start time of the next activity which is based on modeling the relative start time of the predicted activity using the continuous normal distribution and outlier detection. To validate our proposed models, we used real data collected from physical smart environments.

  4. CRAFFT: An Activity Prediction Model based on Bayesian Networks

    PubMed Central

    Nazerfard, Ehsan; Cook, Diane J.

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in the areas of pervasive computing, data mining, and machine learning offer unique opportunities to provide health monitoring and assistance for individuals facing difficulties to live independently in their homes. Several components have to work together to provide health monitoring for smart home residents including, but not limited to, activity recognition, activity discovery, activity prediction, and prompting system. Compared to the significant research done to discover and recognize activities, less attention has been given to predict the future activities that the resident is likely to perform. Activity prediction components can play a major role in design of a smart home. For instance, by taking advantage of an activity prediction module, a smart home can learn context-aware rules to prompt individuals to initiate important activities. In this paper, we propose an activity prediction model using Bayesian networks together with a novel two-step inference process to predict both the next activity features and the next activity label. We also propose an approach to predict the start time of the next activity which is based on modeling the relative start time of the predicted activity using the continuous normal distribution and outlier detection. To validate our proposed models, we used real data collected from physical smart environments. PMID:25937847

  5. Trust-Based Security Level Evaluation Using Bayesian Belief Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houmb, Siv Hilde; Ray, Indrakshi; Ray, Indrajit; Chakraborty, Sudip

    Security is not merely about technical solutions and patching vulnerabilities. Security is about trade-offs and adhering to realistic security needs, employed to support core business processes. Also, modern systems are subject to a highly competitive market, often demanding rapid development cycles, short life-time, short time-to-market, and small budgets. Security evaluation standards, such as ISO 14508 Common Criteria and ISO/IEC 27002, are not adequate for evaluating the security of many modern systems for resource limitations, time-to-market, and other constraints. Towards this end, we propose an alternative time and cost effective approach for evaluating the security level of a security solution, system or part thereof. Our approach relies on collecting information from different sources, who are trusted to varying degrees, and on using a trust measure to aggregate available information when deriving security level. Our approach is quantitative and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) topology, allowing us to reason over uncertain information and seemingly aggregating disparate information. We illustrate our approach by deriving the security level of two alternative Denial of Service (DoS) solutions. Our approach can also be used in the context of security solution trade-off analysis.

  6. Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fienen, Michael N.; Masterson, John P.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-10-01

    Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

  7. Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

    2015-12-01

    Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

  8. Using satellite imagery for stormwater pollution management with Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Park, Mi-Hyun; Stenstrom, Michael K

    2006-10-01

    Urban stormwater runoff is the primary source of many pollutants to Santa Monica Bay, but its monitoring and modeling is inherently difficult and often requires land use information as an intermediate process. Many approaches have been developed to estimate stormwater pollutant loading from land use. This research investigates an alternative approach, which estimates stormwater pollutant loadings directly from satellite imagery. We proposed a Bayesian network approach to classify a Landsat ETM(+) image of the Marina del Rey area in the Santa Monica Bay watershed. Eight water quality parameters were examined, including: total suspended solids, chemical oxygen demand, nutrients, heavy metals, and oil and grease. The pollutant loads for each parameter were classified into six levels: very low, low, medium low, medium high, high, and very high. The results provided spatial estimates of each pollutant load as thematic maps from which the greatest pollutant loading areas were identified. These results may be useful in developing best management strategies for stormwater pollution at regional and global scales and in establishing total maximum daily loads in the watershed. The approach can also be used for areas without ground-survey land use data.

  9. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently published dataset containing over one thousand chemicals with MoA assignments for aquatic animal toxicity. Two dimensional theoretical chemical descriptors were generated for each chemical using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool. The model was developed through augmented Markov blanket discovery from the dataset of 1098 chemicals with the MoA broad classifications as a target node. From cross validation, the overall precision for the model was 80.2%. The best precision was for the AChEI MoA (93.5%) where 257 chemicals out of 275 were correctly classified. Model precision was poorest for the reactivity MoA (48.5%) where 48 out of 99 reactive chemicals were correctly classified. Narcosis represented the largest class within the MoA dataset and had a precision and reliability of 80.0%, reflecting the global precision across all of the MoAs. False negatives for narcosis most often fell into electron transport inhibition, neurotoxicity or reactivity MoAs. False negatives for all other MoAs were most often narcosis. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken for each MoA to examine the sensitivity to individual and multiple descriptor findings. The results show that the Markov blank

  10. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently published dataset containing over one thousand chemicals with MoA assignments for aquatic animal toxicity. Two dimensional theoretical chemical descriptors were generated for each chemical using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool. The model was developed through augmented Markov blanket discovery from the dataset of 1098 chemicals with the MoA broad classifications as a target node. From cross validation, the overall precision for the model was 80.2%. The best precision was for the AChEI MoA (93.5%) where 257 chemicals out of 275 were correctly classified. Model precision was poorest for the reactivity MoA (48.5%) where 48 out of 99 reactive chemicals were correctly classified. Narcosis represented the largest class within the MoA dataset and had a precision and reliability of 80.0%, reflecting the global precision across all of the MoAs. False negatives for narcosis most often fell into electron transport inhibition, neurotoxicity or reactivity MoAs. False negatives for all other MoAs were most often narcosis. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken for each MoA to examine the sensitivity to individual and multiple descriptor findings. The results show that the Markov blank

  11. Bayesian Model Selection with Network Based Diffusion Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Whalen, Andrew; Hoppitt, William J. E.

    2016-01-01

    A number of recent studies have used Network Based Diffusion Analysis (NBDA) to detect the role of social transmission in the spread of a novel behavior through a population. In this paper we present a unified framework for performing NBDA in a Bayesian setting, and demonstrate how the Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC) can be used for model selection. We present a specific example of applying this method to Time to Acquisition Diffusion Analysis (TADA). To examine the robustness of this technique, we performed a large scale simulation study and found that NBDA using WAIC could recover the correct model of social transmission under a wide range of cases, including under the presence of random effects, individual level variables, and alternative models of social transmission. This work suggests that NBDA is an effective and widely applicable tool for uncovering whether social transmission underpins the spread of a novel behavior, and may still provide accurate results even when key model assumptions are relaxed. PMID:27092089

  12. Bayesian network model of crowd emotion and negative behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramli, Nurulhuda; Ghani, Noraida Abdul; Hatta, Zulkarnain Ahmad; Hashim, Intan Hashimah Mohd; Sulong, Jasni; Mahudin, Nor Diana Mohd; Rahman, Shukran Abd; Saad, Zarina Mat

    2014-12-01

    The effects of overcrowding have become a major concern for event organizers. One aspect of this concern has been the idea that overcrowding can enhance the occurrence of serious incidents during events. As one of the largest Muslim religious gathering attended by pilgrims from all over the world, Hajj has become extremely overcrowded with many incidents being reported. The purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of human emotion and negative behavior resulting from overcrowding during Hajj events from data gathered in Malaysian Hajj Experience Survey in 2013. The sample comprised of 147 Malaysian pilgrims (70 males and 77 females). Utilizing a probabilistic model called Bayesian network, this paper models the dependence structure between different emotions and negative behaviors of pilgrims in the crowd. The model included the following variables of emotion: negative, negative comfortable, positive, positive comfortable and positive spiritual and variables of negative behaviors; aggressive and hazardous acts. The study demonstrated that emotions of negative, negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive emotion have a direct influence on aggressive behavior whereas emotion of negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive have a direct influence on hazardous acts behavior. The sensitivity analysis showed that a low level of negative and negative comfortable emotions leads to a lower level of aggressive and hazardous behavior. Findings of the study can be further improved to identify the exact cause and risk factors of crowd-related incidents in preventing crowd disasters during the mass gathering events.

  13. Estimation of incident clearance times using Bayesian Networks approach.

    PubMed

    Ozbay, Kaan; Noyan, Nebahat

    2006-05-01

    Effective incident management requires a full understanding of various characteristics of incidents to accurately estimate incident durations and to help make more efficient decisions to reduce the impact of non-recurring congestion due to these accidents. Our goal is thus to have a comprehensive and clear description of incident clearance patterns and to represent these patterns with formalisms based on Bayesian Networks (BNs). BNs can be used to create dynamic incident duration estimation trees that can be extracted in the presence of a real incident for which data might only be partially available. This capability will enable traffic operators to create case-specific incident management strategies in the presence of incomplete information. In this paper, we employ a unique database created using incident data collected in Northern Virginia. This database is then used to demonstrate the advantages of employing BNs as a powerful modeling and analysis tool especially due to their ability to consider the stochastic variations of the data and to allow bi-directional induction in decision-making. In addition to the presentation of the basic theory behind BNs in the context of our problem and the validation of our estimation results, the dependency relations among all variables in the estimated BN that can be used for both quantitative and qualitative analysis are also discussed in detail.

  14. Evidence for single top quark production using Bayesian neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Kau, Daekwang

    2007-01-01

    We present results of a search for single top quark production in p$\\bar{p}$ collisions using a dataset of approximately 1 fb-1 collected with the D0 detector. This analysis considers the muon+jets and electron+jets final states and makes use of Bayesian neural networks to separate the expected signals from backgrounds. The observed excess is associated with a p-value of 0.081%, assuming the background-only hypothesis, which corresponds to an excess over background of 3.2 standard deviations for a Gaussian density. The p-value computed using the SM signal cross section of 2.9 pb is 1.6%, corresponding to an expected significance of 2.2 standard deviations. Assuming the observed excess is due to single top production, we measure a single top quark production cross section of σ(p$\\bar{p}$ → tb + X, tqb + X) = 4.4 ± 1.5 pb.

  15. Using multi-step proposal distribution for improved MCMC convergence in Bayesian network structure learning.

    PubMed

    Larjo, Antti; Lähdesmäki, Harri

    2015-12-01

    Bayesian networks have become popular for modeling probabilistic relationships between entities. As their structure can also be given a causal interpretation about the studied system, they can be used to learn, for example, regulatory relationships of genes or proteins in biological networks and pathways. Inference of the Bayesian network structure is complicated by the size of the model structure space, necessitating the use of optimization methods or sampling techniques, such Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, convergence of MCMC chains is in many cases slow and can become even a harder issue as the dataset size grows. We show here how to improve convergence in the Bayesian network structure space by using an adjustable proposal distribution with the possibility to propose a wide range of steps in the structure space, and demonstrate improved network structure inference by analyzing phosphoprotein data from the human primary T cell signaling network.

  16. A Bayesian Network approach for flash flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boutkhamouine, Brahim; Roux, Hélène; Pérès, François

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is contributing to the increase of natural disasters such as extreme weather events. Sometimes, these events lead to sudden flash floods causing devastating effects on life and property. Most recently, many regions of the French Mediterranean perimeter have endured such catastrophic flood events; Var (October 2015), Ardèche (November 2014), Nîmes (October 2014), Hérault, Gard and Languedoc (September 2014), and Pyrenees mountains (Jun 2013). Altogether, it resulted in dozens of victims and property damages amounting to millions of euros. With this heavy loss in mind, development of hydrological forecasting and warning systems is becoming an essential element in regional and national strategies. Flash flood forecasting but also monitoring is a difficult task because small ungauged catchments ( 10 km2) are often the most destructive ones as for the extreme flash flood event of September 2002 in the Cévennes region (France) (Ruin et al., 2008). The problem of measurement/prediction uncertainty is particularly crucial when attempting to develop operational flash-flood forecasting methods. Taking into account the uncertainty related to the model structure itself, to the model parametrization or to the model forcing (spatio-temporal rainfall, initial conditions) is crucial in hydrological modelling. Quantifying these uncertainties is of primary importance for risk assessment and decision making. Although significant improvements have been made in computational power and distributed hydrologic modelling, the issue dealing with integration of uncertainties into flood forecasting remains up-to-date and challenging. In order to develop a framework which could handle these uncertainties and explain their propagation through the model, we propose to explore the potential of graphical models (GMs) and, more precisely, Bayesian Networks (BNs). These networks are Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) in which knowledge of a certain phenomenon is represented by

  17. Estimating extreme river discharges in Europe through a Bayesian network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo

    2017-06-01

    Large-scale hydrological modelling of flood hazards requires adequate extreme discharge data. In practise, models based on physics are applied alongside those utilizing only statistical analysis. The former require enormous computational power, while the latter are mostly limited in accuracy and spatial coverage. In this paper we introduce an alternate, statistical approach based on Bayesian networks (BNs), a graphical model for dependent random variables. We use a non-parametric BN to describe the joint distribution of extreme discharges in European rivers and variables representing the geographical characteristics of their catchments. Annual maxima of daily discharges from more than 1800 river gauges (stations with catchment areas ranging from 1.4 to 807 000 km2) were collected, together with information on terrain, land use and local climate. The (conditional) correlations between the variables are modelled through copulas, with the dependency structure defined in the network. The results show that using this method, mean annual maxima and return periods of discharges could be estimated with an accuracy similar to existing studies using physical models for Europe and better than a comparable global statistical model. Performance of the model varies slightly between regions of Europe, but is consistent between different time periods, and remains the same in a split-sample validation. Though discharge prediction under climate change is not the main scope of this paper, the BN was applied to a large domain covering all sizes of rivers in the continent both for present and future climate, as an example. Results show substantial variation in the influence of climate change on river discharges. The model can be used to provide quick estimates of extreme discharges at any location for the purpose of obtaining input information for hydraulic modelling.

  18. Recognizing recurrent neural networks (rRNN): Bayesian inference for recurrent neural networks.

    PubMed

    Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2012-07-01

    Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are widely used in computational neuroscience and machine learning applications. In an RNN, each neuron computes its output as a nonlinear function of its integrated input. While the importance of RNNs, especially as models of brain processing, is undisputed, it is also widely acknowledged that the computations in standard RNN models may be an over-simplification of what real neuronal networks compute. Here, we suggest that the RNN approach may be made computationally more powerful by its fusion with Bayesian inference techniques for nonlinear dynamical systems. In this scheme, we use an RNN as a generative model of dynamic input caused by the environment, e.g. of speech or kinematics. Given this generative RNN model, we derive Bayesian update equations that can decode its output. Critically, these updates define a 'recognizing RNN' (rRNN), in which neurons compute and exchange prediction and prediction error messages. The rRNN has several desirable features that a conventional RNN does not have, e.g. fast decoding of dynamic stimuli and robustness to initial conditions and noise. Furthermore, it implements a predictive coding scheme for dynamic inputs. We suggest that the Bayesian inversion of RNNs may be useful both as a model of brain function and as a machine learning tool. We illustrate the use of the rRNN by an application to the online decoding (i.e. recognition) of human kinematics.

  19. An Anticipatory and Deceptive AI Utilizing Bayesian Belief Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Lake, Joe E; Allgood, Glenn O; Olama, Mohammed M; Saffold, JAy

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. military defines antiterrorism as the defensive posture taken against terrorist threats. Antiterrorism includes fostering awareness of potential threats, deterring aggressors, developing security measures, planning for future events, interdicting an event in progress, and ultimately mitigating and managing the consequences of an event. Recent events highlight the need for efficient tools for training our military and homeland security officers for anticipating threats posed by terrorists. These tools need to be easy enough so that they are readily usable without substantial training, but still maintain the complexity to allow for a level of deceptive reasoning on the part of the opponent. To meet this need, we propose to integrate a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for threat anticipation and deceptive reasoning into training simulation environments currently utilized by several organizations within the Department of Defense (DoD). BBNs have the ability to deal with various types of uncertainties; such as identities, capabilities, target attractiveness, and the combinations of the previous. They also allow for disparate types of data to be fused in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner. A BBN has been developed by ORNL uses a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of each node with in the broader context of the system development effort as a whole, and not in isolation. The network will be integrated into the Research Network Inc,(RNI) developed Game Distributed Interactive Simulation (GDIS) as a smart artificial intelligence module. GDIS is utilized by several DoD and civilian organizations as a distributed training tool for a multiplicity of reasons. It has garnered several awards for its realism, ease of use, and popularity. One area that it still has room to excel in, as most video training tools do, is in the area of artificial intelligence of opponent combatants. It is believed that by

  20. Bayesian Belief Networks Approach for Modeling Irrigation Behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andriyas, S.; McKee, M.

    2012-12-01

    Canal operators need information to manage water deliveries to irrigators. Short-term irrigation demand forecasts can potentially valuable information for a canal operator who must manage an on-demand system. Such forecasts could be generated by using information about the decision-making processes of irrigators. Bayesian models of irrigation behavior can provide insight into the likely criteria which farmers use to make irrigation decisions. This paper develops a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to learn irrigation decision-making behavior of farmers and utilizes the resulting model to make forecasts of future irrigation decisions based on factor interaction and posterior probabilities. Models for studying irrigation behavior have been rarely explored in the past. The model discussed here was built from a combination of data about biotic, climatic, and edaphic conditions under which observed irrigation decisions were made. The paper includes a case study using data collected from the Canal B region of the Sevier River, near Delta, Utah. Alfalfa, barley and corn are the main crops of the location. The model has been tested with a portion of the data to affirm the model predictive capabilities. Irrigation rules were deduced in the process of learning and verified in the testing phase. It was found that most of the farmers used consistent rules throughout all years and across different types of crops. Soil moisture stress, which indicates the level of water available to the plant in the soil profile, was found to be one of the most significant likely driving forces for irrigation. Irrigations appeared to be triggered by a farmer's perception of soil stress, or by a perception of combined factors such as information about a neighbor irrigating or an apparent preference to irrigate on a weekend. Soil stress resulted in irrigation probabilities of 94.4% for alfalfa. With additional factors like weekend and irrigating when a neighbor irrigates, alfalfa irrigation

  1. Order priors for Bayesian network discovery with an application to malware phylogeny

    DOE PAGES

    Oyen, Diane; Anderson, Blake; Sentz, Kari; ...

    2017-09-15

    Here, Bayesian networks have been used extensively to model and discover dependency relationships among sets of random variables. We learn Bayesian network structure with a combination of human knowledge about the partial ordering of variables and statistical inference of conditional dependencies from observed data. Our approach leverages complementary information from human knowledge and inference from observed data to produce networks that reflect human beliefs about the system as well as to fit the observed data. Applying prior beliefs about partial orderings of variables is an approach distinctly different from existing methods that incorporate prior beliefs about direct dependencies (or edges)more » in a Bayesian network. We provide an efficient implementation of the partial-order prior in a Bayesian structure discovery learning algorithm, as well as an edge prior, showing that both priors meet the local modularity requirement necessary for an efficient Bayesian discovery algorithm. In benchmark studies, the partial-order prior improves the accuracy of Bayesian network structure learning as well as the edge prior, even though order priors are more general. Our primary motivation is in characterizing the evolution of families of malware to aid cyber security analysts. For the problem of malware phylogeny discovery, we find that our algorithm, compared to existing malware phylogeny algorithms, more accurately discovers true dependencies that are missed by other algorithms.« less

  2. Effective connectivity analysis of default mode network based on the Bayesian network learning approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Rui; Chen, Kewei; Zhang, Nan; Fleisher, Adam S.; Li, Yao; Wu, Xia

    2009-02-01

    This work proposed to use the linear Gaussian Bayesian network (BN) to construct the effective connectivity model of the brain's default mode network (DMN), a set of regions characterized by more increased neural activity during rest-state than most goal-oriented tasks. In a complete unsupervised data-driven manner, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) based learning approach was utilized to identify a highest scored network whose nodes (brain regions) were selected based on the result from the group independent component analysis (Group ICA) examining the DMN. We put forward to adopt the statistical significance testing method for regression coefficients used in stepwise regression analysis to further refine the network identified by BIC. The final established BN, learned from the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquired from 12 healthy young subjects during rest-state, revealed that the hippocampus (HC) was the most influential brain region that affected activities in all other regions included in the BN. In contrast, the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) was influenced by other regions, but had no reciprocal effects on any other region. Overall, the configuration of our BN illustrated that a prominent connection from HC to PCC existed in the DMN.

  3. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity but MoA classification in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity mode of action using a recently published dataset containing over one thousand chemicals with MoA assignments for aquatic animal toxicity. Two dimensional theoretical chemical descriptors were generated for each chemical using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool. The model was developed through augmented Markov blanket discovery from the data set with the MoA broad classifications as a target node. From cross validation, the overall precision for the model was 80.2% with a R2 of 0.959. The best precision was for the AChEI MoA (93.5%) where 257 chemicals out of 275 were correctly classified. Model precision was poorest for the reactivity MoA (48.5%) where 48 out of 99 reactive chemicals were correctly classified. Narcosis represented the largest class within the MoA dataset and had a precision and reliability of 80.0%, reflecting the global precision across all of the MoAs. False negatives for narcosis most often fell into electron transport inhibition, neurotoxicity or reactivity MoAs. False negatives for all other MoAs were most often narcosis. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken for each MoA to examine the sensitivity to individual and multiple descriptor findings. The results show that the Markov blanket of a structurally

  4. Emulation Modeling with Bayesian Networks for Efficient Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fienen, M. N.; Masterson, J.; Plant, N. G.; Gutierrez, B. T.; Thieler, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    Bayesian decision networks (BDN) have long been used to provide decision support in systems that require explicit consideration of uncertainty; applications range from ecology to medical diagnostics and terrorism threat assessments. Until recently, however, few studies have applied BDNs to the study of groundwater systems. BDNs are particularly useful for representing real-world system variability by synthesizing a range of hydrogeologic situations within a single simulation. Because BDN output is cast in terms of probability—an output desired by decision makers—they explicitly incorporate the uncertainty of a system. BDNs can thus serve as a more efficient alternative to other uncertainty characterization methods such as computationally demanding Monte Carlo analyses and others methods restricted to linear model analyses. We present a unique application of a BDN to a groundwater modeling analysis of the hydrologic response of Assateague Island, Maryland to sea-level rise. Using both input and output variables of the modeled groundwater response to different sea-level (SLR) rise scenarios, the BDN predicts the probability of changes in the depth to fresh water, which exerts an important influence on physical and biological island evolution. Input variables included barrier-island width, maximum island elevation, and aquifer recharge. The variability of these inputs and their corresponding outputs are sampled along cross sections in a single model run to form an ensemble of input/output pairs. The BDN outputs, which are the posterior distributions of water table conditions for the sea-level rise scenarios, are evaluated through error analysis and cross-validation to assess both fit to training data and predictive power. The key benefit for using BDNs in groundwater modeling analyses is that they provide a method for distilling complex model results into predictions with associated uncertainty, which is useful to decision makers. Future efforts incorporate

  5. Bayesian network classifiers for categorizing cortical GABAergic interneurons.

    PubMed

    Mihaljević, Bojan; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; Bielza, Concha; DeFelipe, Javier; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2015-04-01

    An accepted classification of GABAergic interneurons of the cerebral cortex is a major goal in neuroscience. A recently proposed taxonomy based on patterns of axonal arborization promises to be a pragmatic method for achieving this goal. It involves characterizing interneurons according to five axonal arborization features, called F1-F5, and classifying them into a set of predefined types, most of which are established in the literature. Unfortunately, there is little consensus among expert neuroscientists regarding the morphological definitions of some of the proposed types. While supervised classifiers were able to categorize the interneurons in accordance with experts' assignments, their accuracy was limited because they were trained with disputed labels. Thus, here we automatically classify interneuron subsets with different label reliability thresholds (i.e., such that every cell's label is backed by at least a certain (threshold) number of experts). We quantify the cells with parameters of axonal and dendritic morphologies and, in order to predict the type, also with axonal features F1-F4 provided by the experts. Using Bayesian network classifiers, we accurately characterize and classify the interneurons and identify useful predictor variables. In particular, we discriminate among reliable examples of common basket, horse-tail, large basket, and Martinotti cells with up to 89.52% accuracy, and single out the number of branches at 180 μm from the soma, the convex hull 2D area, and the axonal features F1-F4 as especially useful predictors for distinguishing among these types. These results open up new possibilities for an objective and pragmatic classification of interneurons.

  6. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity but MoA classification in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity mode of action using a recently published dataset containing over one thousand chemicals with MoA assignments for aquatic animal toxicity. Two dimensional theoretical chemical descriptors were generated for each chemical using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool. The model was developed through augmented Markov blanket discovery from the data set with the MoA broad classifications as a target node. From cross validation, the overall precision for the model was 80.2% with a R2 of 0.959. The best precision was for the AChEI MoA (93.5%) where 257 chemicals out of 275 were correctly classified. Model precision was poorest for the reactivity MoA (48.5%) where 48 out of 99 reactive chemicals were correctly classified. Narcosis represented the largest class within the MoA dataset and had a precision and reliability of 80.0%, reflecting the global precision across all of the MoAs. False negatives for narcosis most often fell into electron transport inhibition, neurotoxicity or reactivity MoAs. False negatives for all other MoAs were most often narcosis. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken for each MoA to examine the sensitivity to individual and multiple descriptor findings. The results show that the Markov blanket of a structurally

  7. A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

  8. A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information. PMID:25938760

  9. Evaluation of a partial genome screening of two asthma susceptibility regions using bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance.

    PubMed

    Ungvári, Ildikó; Hullám, Gábor; Antal, Péter; Kiszel, Petra Sz; Gézsi, András; Hadadi, Éva; Virág, Viktor; Hajós, Gergely; Millinghoffer, András; Nagy, Adrienne; Kiss, András; Semsei, Ágnes F; Temesi, Gergely; Melegh, Béla; Kisfali, Péter; Széll, Márta; Bikov, András; Gálffy, Gabriella; Tamási, Lilla; Falus, András; Szalai, Csaba

    2012-01-01

    Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). This method uses bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated.With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene) provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2-1.8); p = 3×10(-4)). The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics.In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance.

  10. Guidance on the implementation and reporting of a drug safety Bayesian network meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Ohlssen, David; Price, Karen L; Xia, H Amy; Hong, Hwanhee; Kerman, Jouni; Fu, Haoda; Quartey, George; Heilmann, Cory R; Ma, Haijun; Carlin, Bradley P

    2014-01-01

    The Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG) was formed in 2011 with a vision to ensure that Bayesian methods are well understood and broadly utilized for design and analysis and throughout the medical product development process, and to improve industrial, regulatory, and economic decision making. The group, composed of individuals from academia, industry, and regulatory, has as its mission to facilitate the appropriate use and contribute to the progress of Bayesian methodology. In this paper, the safety sub-team of the BSWG explores the use of Bayesian methods when applied to drug safety meta-analysis and network meta-analysis. Guidance is presented on the conduct and reporting of such analyses. We also discuss different structural model assumptions and provide discussion on prior specification. The work is illustrated through a case study involving a network meta-analysis related to the cardiovascular safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.

  11. Method for Building a Medical Training Simulator with Bayesian Networks: SimDeCS.

    PubMed

    Flores, Cecilia Dias; Fonseca, João Marcelo; Bez, Marta Rosecler; Respício, Ana; Coelho, Helder

    2014-01-01

    Distance education has grown in importance with the advent of the internet. An adequate evaluation of students in this mode is still difficult. Distance tests or occasional on-site exams do not meet the needs of evaluation of the learning process for distance education. Bayesian networks are adequate for simulating several aspects of clinical reasoning. The possibility of integrating them in distance education student evaluation has not yet been explored much. The present work describes a Simulator based on probabilistic networks built to represent knowledge of clinical practice guidelines in Family and Community Medicine. The Bayesian Network, the basis of the simulator, was modeled to playable by the student, to give immediate feedback according to pedagogical strategies adapted to the student according to past performance, and to give a broad evaluation of performance at the end of the game. Simulators structured by Bayesian Networks may become alternatives in the evaluation of students of Medical Distance Education.

  12. A Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for the Production and Inventory Control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, Ji-Sun; Takazaki, Noriyuki; Lee, Tae-Hong; Kim, Jin-Il; Lee, Hee-Hyol

    In general, the production quantities and delivered goods are changed randomly and then the total stock is also changed randomly. This paper deals with the production and inventory control using the Dynamic Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probabilistic model which represents the qualitative dependence between two or more random variables by the graph structure, and indicates the quantitative relations between individual variables by the conditional probability. The probabilistic distribution of the total stock is calculated through the propagation of the probability on the network. Moreover, an adjusting rule of the production quantities to maintain the probability of a lower limit and a ceiling of the total stock to certain values is shown.

  13. Explaining Inference on a Population of Independent Agents Using Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sutovsky, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The main goal of this research is to design, implement, and evaluate a novel explanation method, the hierarchical explanation method (HEM), for explaining Bayesian network (BN) inference when the network is modeling a population of conditionally independent agents, each of which is modeled as a subnetwork. For example, consider disease-outbreak…

  14. Expectation propagation for large scale Bayesian inference of non-linear molecular networks from perturbation data.

    PubMed

    Narimani, Zahra; Beigy, Hamid; Ahmad, Ashar; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; Fröhlich, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Inferring the structure of molecular networks from time series protein or gene expression data provides valuable information about the complex biological processes of the cell. Causal network structure inference has been approached using different methods in the past. Most causal network inference techniques, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks and ordinary differential equations, are limited by their computational complexity and thus make large scale inference infeasible. This is specifically true if a Bayesian framework is applied in order to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty about the correct model. We devise a novel Bayesian network reverse engineering approach using ordinary differential equations with the ability to include non-linearity. Besides modeling arbitrary, possibly combinatorial and time dependent perturbations with unknown targets, one of our main contributions is the use of Expectation Propagation, an algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference over large scale network structures in short computation time. We further explore the possibility of integrating prior knowledge into network inference. We evaluate the proposed model on DREAM4 and DREAM8 data and find it competitive against several state-of-the-art existing network inference methods.

  15. Explaining Inference on a Population of Independent Agents Using Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sutovsky, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The main goal of this research is to design, implement, and evaluate a novel explanation method, the hierarchical explanation method (HEM), for explaining Bayesian network (BN) inference when the network is modeling a population of conditionally independent agents, each of which is modeled as a subnetwork. For example, consider disease-outbreak…

  16. Expectation propagation for large scale Bayesian inference of non-linear molecular networks from perturbation data

    PubMed Central

    Beigy, Hamid; Ahmad, Ashar; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; Fröhlich, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Inferring the structure of molecular networks from time series protein or gene expression data provides valuable information about the complex biological processes of the cell. Causal network structure inference has been approached using different methods in the past. Most causal network inference techniques, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks and ordinary differential equations, are limited by their computational complexity and thus make large scale inference infeasible. This is specifically true if a Bayesian framework is applied in order to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty about the correct model. We devise a novel Bayesian network reverse engineering approach using ordinary differential equations with the ability to include non-linearity. Besides modeling arbitrary, possibly combinatorial and time dependent perturbations with unknown targets, one of our main contributions is the use of Expectation Propagation, an algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference over large scale network structures in short computation time. We further explore the possibility of integrating prior knowledge into network inference. We evaluate the proposed model on DREAM4 and DREAM8 data and find it competitive against several state-of-the-art existing network inference methods. PMID:28166542

  17. Predictive models for pressure ulcers from intensive care unit electronic health records using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Kaewprag, Pacharmon; Newton, Cheryl; Vermillion, Brenda; Hyun, Sookyung; Huang, Kun; Machiraju, Raghu

    2017-07-05

    We develop predictive models enabling clinicians to better understand and explore patient clinical data along with risk factors for pressure ulcers in intensive care unit patients from electronic health record data. Identifying accurate risk factors of pressure ulcers is essential to determining appropriate prevention strategies; in this work we examine medication, diagnosis, and traditional Braden pressure ulcer assessment scale measurements as patient features. In order to predict pressure ulcer incidence and better understand the structure of related risk factors, we construct Bayesian networks from patient features. Bayesian network nodes (features) and edges (conditional dependencies) are simplified with statistical network techniques. Upon reviewing a network visualization of our model, our clinician collaborators were able to identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. We present a three-stage framework for predictive analysis of patient clinical data: 1) Developing electronic health record feature extraction functions with assistance of clinicians, 2) simplifying features, and 3) building Bayesian network predictive models. We evaluate all combinations of Bayesian network models from different search algorithms, scoring functions, prior structure initializations, and sets of features. From the EHRs of 7,717 ICU patients, we construct Bayesian network predictive models from 86 medication, diagnosis, and Braden scale features. Our model not only identifies known and suspected high PU risk factors, but also substantially increases sensitivity of the prediction - nearly three times higher comparing to logistical regression models - without sacrificing the overall accuracy. We visualize a representative model with which our clinician collaborators identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. Given the strong adverse effect of pressure ulcers

  18. Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature.

    PubMed

    Biedermann, A; Taroni, F

    2012-03-01

    Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Analysis of Climate Change on Hydrologic Components by using Bayesian Neural Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, K.

    2012-12-01

    Representation of hydrologic analysis in climate change is a challenging task. Hydrologic outputs in regional climate models (RCMs) from general circulation models (GCMs) have difficult representation due to several uncertainties in hydrologic impacts of climate change. To overcome this problem, this research presents practical options for hydrological climate change with Bayesian and Neural networks approached to regional adaption to climate change. Bayesian and Neural networks analysis to climate hydrologic components is one of new frontier researches considering to climate change expectation. Strong advantage in Bayesian Neural networks is detecting time series in hydrologic components, which is complicated due to data, parameter, and model hypothesis on climate change scenario, through changing steps by removing and adding connections in Neural network process that combined Bayesian concept from parameter, predict and update process. As an example study, Mekong River Watershed, which is surrounded by four countries (Myanmar, Laos, Thailand and Cambodia), is selected. Results will show understanding of hydrologic components trend on climate model simulations through Bayesian Neural networks.

  20. [Meta analysis of the use of Bayesian networks in breast cancer diagnosis].

    PubMed

    Simões, Priscyla Waleska; Silva, Geraldo Doneda da; Moretti, Gustavo Pasquali; Simon, Carla Sasso; Winnikow, Erik Paul; Nassar, Silvia Modesto; Medeiros, Lidia Rosi; Rosa, Maria Inês

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of Bayesian networks in supporting breast cancer diagnoses. Systematic review and meta-analysis were carried out, including articles and papers published between January 1990 and March 2013. We included prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies of the accuracy of diagnoses of breast lesions (target conditions) made using Bayesian networks (index test). Four primary studies that included 1,223 breast lesions were analyzed, 89.52% (444/496) of the breast cancer cases and 6.33% (46/727) of the benign lesions were positive based on the Bayesian network analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) was 0.97, with a Q* value of 0.92. Using Bayesian networks to diagnose malignant lesions increased the pretest probability of a true positive from 40.03% to 90.05% and decreased the probability of a false negative to 6.44%. Therefore, our results demonstrated that Bayesian networks provide an accurate and non-invasive method to support breast cancer diagnosis.

  1. Implementing relevance feedback in ligand-based virtual screening using Bayesian inference network.

    PubMed

    Abdo, Ammar; Salim, Naomie; Ahmed, Ali

    2011-10-01

    Recently, the use of the Bayesian network as an alternative to existing tools for similarity-based virtual screening has received noticeable attention from researchers in the chemoinformatics field. The main aim of the Bayesian network model is to improve the retrieval effectiveness of similarity-based virtual screening. To this end, different models of the Bayesian network have been developed. In our previous works, the retrieval performance of the Bayesian network was observed to improve significantly when multiple reference structures or fragment weightings were used. In this article, the authors enhance the Bayesian inference network (BIN) using the relevance feedback information. In this approach, a few high-ranking structures of unknown activity were filtered from the outputs of BIN, based on a single active reference structure, to form a set of active reference structures. This set of active reference structures was used in two distinct techniques for carrying out such BIN searching: reweighting the fragments in the reference structures and group fusion techniques. Simulated virtual screening experiments with three MDL Drug Data Report data sets showed that the proposed techniques provide simple ways of enhancing the cost-effectiveness of ligand-based virtual screening searches, especially for higher diversity data sets.

  2. Diagnosis and Reconfiguration using Bayesian Networks: An Electrical Power System Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knox, W. Bradley; Mengshoel, Ole

    2009-01-01

    Automated diagnosis and reconfiguration are important computational techniques that aim to minimize human intervention in autonomous systems. In this paper, we develop novel techniques and models in the context of diagnosis and reconfiguration reasoning using causal Bayesian networks (BNs). We take as starting point a successful diagnostic approach, using a static BN developed for a real-world electrical power system. We discuss in this paper the extension of this diagnostic approach along two dimensions, namely: (i) from a static BN to a dynamic BN; and (ii) from a diagnostic task to a reconfiguration task. More specifically, we discuss the auto-generation of a dynamic Bayesian network from a static Bayesian network. In addition, we discuss subtle, but important, differences between Bayesian networks when used for diagnosis versus reconfiguration. We discuss a novel reconfiguration agent, which models a system causally, including effects of actions through time, using a dynamic Bayesian network. Though the techniques we discuss are general, we demonstrate them in the context of electrical power systems (EPSs) for aircraft and spacecraft. EPSs are vital subsystems on-board aircraft and spacecraft, and many incidents and accidents of these vehicles have been attributed to EPS failures. We discuss a case study that provides initial but promising results for our approach in the setting of electrical power systems.

  3. A new research tool for hybrid Bayesian networks using script language

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Wei; Park, Cheol Young; Carvalho, Rommel

    2011-06-01

    While continuous variables become more and more inevitable in Bayesian networks for modeling real-life applications in complex systems, there are not much software tools to support it. Popular commercial Bayesian network tools such as Hugin, and Netica etc., are either expensive or have to discretize continuous variables. In addition, some free programs existing in the literature, commonly known as BNT, GeNie/SMILE, etc, have their own advantages and disadvantages respectively. In this paper, we introduce a newly developed Java tool for model construction and inference for hybrid Bayesian networks. Via the representation power of the script language, this tool can build the hybrid model automatically based on a well defined string that follows the specific grammars. Furthermore, it implements several inference algorithms capable to accommodate hybrid Bayesian networks, including Junction Tree algorithm (JT) for conditional linear Gaussian model (CLG), and Direct Message Passing (DMP) for general hybrid Bayesian networks with CLG structure. We believe this tool will be useful for researchers in the field.

  4. Impact of precision of Bayesian networks parameters on accuracy of medical diagnostic systems

    PubMed Central

    Oniśko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective One of the hardest technical tasks in employing Bayesian network models in practice is obtaining their numerical parameters. In the light of this difficulty, a pressing question, one that has immediate implications on the knowledge engineering effort, is whether precision of these parameters is important. In this paper, we address experimentally the question whether medical diagnostic systems based on Bayesian networks are sensitive to precision of their parameters. Methods and Materials The test networks include Hepar II, a sizeable Bayesian network model for diagnosis of liver disorders and six other medical diagnostic networks constructed from medical data sets available through the Irvine Machine Learning Repository. Assuming that the original model parameters are perfectly accurate, we lower systematically their precision by rounding them to progressively courser scales and check the impact of this rounding on the models' accuracy. Results Our main result, consistent across all tested networks, is that imprecision in numerical parameters has minimal impact on the diagnostic accuracy of models, as long as we avoid zeroes among parameters. Conclusion The experiments' results provide evidence that as long as we avoid zeroes among model parameters, diagnostic accuracy of Bayesian network models does not suffer from decreased precision of their parameters. PMID:23466438

  5. Hidden Markov induced Dynamic Bayesian Network for recovering time evolving gene regulatory networks.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Shijia; Wang, Yadong

    2015-12-18

    Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) have been widely used to recover gene regulatory relationships from time-series data in computational systems biology. Its standard assumption is 'stationarity', and therefore, several research efforts have been recently proposed to relax this restriction. However, those methods suffer from three challenges: long running time, low accuracy and reliance on parameter settings. To address these problems, we propose a novel non-stationary DBN model by extending each hidden node of Hidden Markov Model into a DBN (called HMDBN), which properly handles the underlying time-evolving networks. Correspondingly, an improved structural EM algorithm is proposed to learn the HMDBN. It dramatically reduces searching space, thereby substantially improving computational efficiency. Additionally, we derived a novel generalized Bayesian Information Criterion under the non-stationary assumption (called BWBIC), which can help significantly improve the reconstruction accuracy and largely reduce over-fitting. Moreover, the re-estimation formulas for all parameters of our model are derived, enabling us to avoid reliance on parameter settings. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, the experimental evaluation of our proposed method on both synthetic and real biological data demonstrates more stably high prediction accuracy and significantly improved computation efficiency, even with no prior knowledge and parameter settings.

  6. Hidden Markov induced Dynamic Bayesian Network for recovering time evolving gene regulatory networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Shijia; Wang, Yadong

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) have been widely used to recover gene regulatory relationships from time-series data in computational systems biology. Its standard assumption is ‘stationarity’, and therefore, several research efforts have been recently proposed to relax this restriction. However, those methods suffer from three challenges: long running time, low accuracy and reliance on parameter settings. To address these problems, we propose a novel non-stationary DBN model by extending each hidden node of Hidden Markov Model into a DBN (called HMDBN), which properly handles the underlying time-evolving networks. Correspondingly, an improved structural EM algorithm is proposed to learn the HMDBN. It dramatically reduces searching space, thereby substantially improving computational efficiency. Additionally, we derived a novel generalized Bayesian Information Criterion under the non-stationary assumption (called BWBIC), which can help significantly improve the reconstruction accuracy and largely reduce over-fitting. Moreover, the re-estimation formulas for all parameters of our model are derived, enabling us to avoid reliance on parameter settings. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, the experimental evaluation of our proposed method on both synthetic and real biological data demonstrates more stably high prediction accuracy and significantly improved computation efficiency, even with no prior knowledge and parameter settings.

  7. Applications of Bayesian Networks in Geo-Sciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogel, Kristin; Riggelsen, Carsten; Kuehn, Nicolas; Scherbaum, Frank; Merz, Bruno; Kreibich, Heidi; Schroeter, Kai; Korup, Oliver

    2013-04-01

    For complex systems as encountered in geo-sciences the knowledge about the underlying mechanism is often lacking and much effort is being put into obtaining an improved understanding of the dependencies of involved variables and parameters. However, gaining insight into the "working" of a system is just one aspect: often one is also (or perhaps more) interested in being able to predict one or several target variables given a set of measurements on some other variables of the system(s), e.g., forward or inverse problems. Moreover, both epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) and/or aleatoric uncertainty (uncontrollable/nature's randomness) associated with complex systems and measurements play an important role and should not be neglected when dealing with complex systems. Using the all-round probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks (BNs) we faced the above mentioned challenges, considering modelling problems coming from different geo-scientific domains: 1) We simplified a complex so-called stochastic model for a better understanding of the driving forces behind Ground Motion caused by Earthquakes. 2) For the prediction of damage caused by floods and for an improved understanding about the influencing factors we learned a BN based on data collected after the 2002 and 2005/2006 floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments. 3) First steps have been undertaken to learn a BN from landslide data from Japan. In contrast to classical approaches like regression, where the functional form is derived from already existing expert knowledge, BNs allow an entirely data-driven approach and can provide additional understanding of the underlying complex system. Capturing the (in-)dependencies of the involved variables, BNs describe a joint probability distribution, decomposing it into a product of (local) conditional probability distributions according to a directed acyclic graph. In particular, this allows to infer about any conditional or marginal distribution in an efficient

  8. Using Bayesian Networks for Candidate Generation in Consistency-based Diagnosis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Narasimhan, Sriram; Mengshoel, Ole

    2008-01-01

    Consistency-based diagnosis relies heavily on the assumption that discrepancies between model predictions and sensor observations can be detected accurately. When sources of uncertainty like sensor noise and model abstraction exist robust schemes have to be designed to make a binary decision on whether predictions are consistent with observations. This risks the occurrence of false alarms and missed alarms when an erroneous decision is made. Moreover when multiple sensors (with differing sensing properties) are available the degree of match between predictions and observations can be used to guide the search for fault candidates. In this paper we propose a novel approach to handle this problem using Bayesian networks. In the consistency- based diagnosis formulation, automatically generated Bayesian networks are used to encode a probabilistic measure of fit between predictions and observations. A Bayesian network inference algorithm is used to compute most probable fault candidates.

  9. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  10. Prediction in Health Domain Using Bayesian Networks Optimization Based on Induction Learning Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Felgaer, Pablo; Britos, Paola; García-Martínez, Ramón

    A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph in which each node represents a variable and each arc a probabilistic dependency; they are used to provide: a compact form to represent the knowledge and flexible methods of reasoning. Obtaining it from data is a learning process that is divided in two steps: structural learning and parametric learning. In this paper we define an automatic learning method that optimizes the Bayesian networks applied to classification, using a hybrid method of learning that combines the advantages of the induction techniques of the decision trees (TDIDT-C4.5) with those of the Bayesian networks. The resulting method is applied to prediction in health domain.

  11. The research of elevator health diagnosis method based on Bayesian network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Chang; Zhang, Xinzheng; Liu, Xindong; Chen, Can

    2017-08-01

    Elevator, as a complex mechanical system, is hard to determine the factors that affect components’ status. In accordance with this special characteristic, the Elevator Fault Diagnosis Model is proposed based on Bayesian Network in this paper. The method uses different samples of the elevator and adopts Monte Carlo inference mechanism for Bayesian Network Model structure and parameter learning. Eventually, an elevator fault diagnosis model based on Bayesian network is established, which accords with the theory of elevator operation. In this paper, we use different kinds of fault data samples to test the method. Experimental results demonstrate the higher accuracy of our method. This paper provides a good assistant method by means of Fault prediction and Health diagnosis of elevator system at present.

  12. Estimating uncertainty and reliability of social network data using Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Farine, Damien R; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana

    2015-09-01

    Social network analysis provides a useful lens through which to view the structure of animal societies, and as a result its use is increasingly widespread. One challenge that many studies of animal social networks face is dealing with limited sample sizes, which introduces the potential for a high level of uncertainty in estimating the rates of association or interaction between individuals. We present a method based on Bayesian inference to incorporate uncertainty into network analyses. We test the reliability of this method at capturing both local and global properties of simulated networks, and compare it to a recently suggested method based on bootstrapping. Our results suggest that Bayesian inference can provide useful information about the underlying certainty in an observed network. When networks are well sampled, observed networks approach the real underlying social structure. However, when sampling is sparse, Bayesian inferred networks can provide realistic uncertainty estimates around edge weights. We also suggest a potential method for estimating the reliability of an observed network given the amount of sampling performed. This paper highlights how relatively simple procedures can be used to estimate uncertainty and reliability in studies using animal social network analysis.

  13. Estimating uncertainty and reliability of social network data using Bayesian inference

    PubMed Central

    Farine, Damien R.; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana

    2015-01-01

    Social network analysis provides a useful lens through which to view the structure of animal societies, and as a result its use is increasingly widespread. One challenge that many studies of animal social networks face is dealing with limited sample sizes, which introduces the potential for a high level of uncertainty in estimating the rates of association or interaction between individuals. We present a method based on Bayesian inference to incorporate uncertainty into network analyses. We test the reliability of this method at capturing both local and global properties of simulated networks, and compare it to a recently suggested method based on bootstrapping. Our results suggest that Bayesian inference can provide useful information about the underlying certainty in an observed network. When networks are well sampled, observed networks approach the real underlying social structure. However, when sampling is sparse, Bayesian inferred networks can provide realistic uncertainty estimates around edge weights. We also suggest a potential method for estimating the reliability of an observed network given the amount of sampling performed. This paper highlights how relatively simple procedures can be used to estimate uncertainty and reliability in studies using animal social network analysis. PMID:26473059

  14. Variational Bayesian Inference Algorithms for Infinite Relational Model of Network Data.

    PubMed

    Konishi, Takuya; Kubo, Takatomi; Watanabe, Kazuho; Ikeda, Kazushi

    2015-09-01

    Network data show the relationship among one kind of objects, such as social networks and hyperlinks on the Web. Many statistical models have been proposed for analyzing these data. For modeling cluster structures of networks, the infinite relational model (IRM) was proposed as a Bayesian nonparametric extension of the stochastic block model. In this brief, we derive the inference algorithms for the IRM of network data based on the variational Bayesian (VB) inference methods. After showing the standard VB inference, we derive the collapsed VB (CVB) inference and its variant called the zeroth-order CVB inference. We compared the performances of the inference algorithms using six real network datasets. The CVB inference outperformed the VB inference in most of the datasets, and the differences were especially larger in dense networks.

  15. Detection of clinically important colorectal surgical site infection using Bayesian network.

    PubMed

    Sohn, Sunghwan; Larson, David W; Habermann, Elizabeth B; Naessens, James M; Alabbad, Jasim Y; Liu, Hongfang

    2017-03-01

    Despite extensive efforts to monitor and prevent surgical site infections (SSIs), real-time surveillance of clinical practice has been sparse and expensive or nonexistent. However, natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning (i.e., Bayesian network analysis) may provide the methodology necessary to approach this issue in a new way. We investigated the ability to identify SSIs after colorectal surgery (CRS) through an automated detection system using a Bayesian network. Patients who underwent CRS from 2010 to 2012 and were captured in our institutional American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) comprised our cohort. A Bayesian network was applied to detect SSIs using risk factors from ACS-NSQIP data and keywords extracted from clinical notes by NLP. Two surgeons provided expertise informing the Bayesian network to identify clinically meaningful SSIs (CM-SSIs) occurring within 30 d after surgery. We used data from 751 CRS cases experiencing 67 (8.9%) SSIs and 78 (10.4%) CM-SSIs. Our Bayesian network detected ACS-NSQIP-captured SSIs with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.827, but this value increased to 0.892 when using surgeon-identified CM-SSIs. A Bayesian network coupled with NLP has the potential to be used in real-time SSI surveillance. Moreover, surgeons identified CM-SSI not captured under current NSQIP definitions. Future efforts to expand CM-SSI identification may lead to improved and potentially automated approaches to survey for postoperative SSI in clinical practice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Virtual Representation of IID Observations in Bayesian Belief Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-04-01

    programs for structuring and using Bayesian inference include ERGO ( Noetic Systems, Inc., 1991) and HUGIN (Andersen, Jensen, Olesen, & Jensen, 1989...Nichols, S.. Chipman, & R. Brennan (Eds.), Cognitively diagnostic assessment. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Noetic Systems, Inc. (1991). ERGO [computer...Dr Geore Eageiard Jr Chicago IL 60612 US Naval Academy Division of Educational Studies Annapolis MD 21402-5002 Emory University Dr Janice Gifford 210

  17. Learn the effective connectivity pattern of attention networks: a resting functional MRI and Bayesian network study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Juan; Li, Rui; Yao, Li; Wu, Xia

    2011-03-01

    Task-based neuroimaging studies revealed that different attention operations were carried out by the functional interaction and cooperation between two attention systems: the dorsal attention network (DAN) and the ventral attention network (VAN), which were respectively involved in the "top-down" endogenous attention orienting and the "bottomup" exogenous attention reorienting process. Recent focused resting functional MRI (fMRI) studies found the two attention systems were inherently organized in the human brain regardless of whether or not the attention process were required, but how the two attention systems interact with each other in the absence of task is yet to be investigated. In this study, we first separated the DAN and VAN by applying the group independent component analysis (ICA) to the resting fMRI data acquired from 12 healthy young subjects, then used Gaussian Bayesian network (BN) learning approach to explore the plausible effective connectivity pattern of the two attention systems. It was found regions from the same attention network were strongly intra-dependent, and all the connections were located in the information flow from VAN to DAN, which suggested that an orderly functional interactions and information exchanges between the two attention networks existed in the intrinsic spontaneous brain activity, and the inherent connections might benefit the efficient cognitive process between DAN and VAN, such as the "top-down" and "bottom-up" reciprocal interaction when attention-related tasks were involved.

  18. [Cicatricial conjunctivitis].

    PubMed

    Gueudry, J; Vera, L; Muraine, M

    2010-10-01

    Cicatricial conjunctivitis is chronic conjunctivitis with conjunctival fibrosis and may lead to alterations of conjunctival architecture, which are potentially sight-threatening. The patient's medical history, physical exam, and laboratory tests often provide the diagnosis of the underlying disease. Causes of conjunctival cicatrization are autoimmune diseases such as ocular cicatricial pemphigoid, thermal and chemical burns, postinfectious conjunctivitis, Stevens-Johnson syndrome, etc. Medical management varies according to specific causes and may lead to severe side effects. Furthermore, strategies may be necessary to restore corneal transparency and normal palpebral architecture.

  19. miniTUBA: medical inference by network integration of temporal data using Bayesian analysis.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Zuoshuang; Minter, Rebecca M; Bi, Xiaoming; Woolf, Peter J; He, Yongqun

    2007-09-15

    Many biomedical and clinical research problems involve discovering causal relationships between observations gathered from temporal events. Dynamic Bayesian networks are a powerful modeling approach to describe causal or apparently causal relationships, and support complex medical inference, such as future response prediction, automated learning, and rational decision making. Although many engines exist for creating Bayesian networks, most require a local installation and significant data manipulation to be practical for a general biologist or clinician. No software pipeline currently exists for interpretation and inference of dynamic Bayesian networks learned from biomedical and clinical data. miniTUBA is a web-based modeling system that allows clinical and biomedical researchers to perform complex medical/clinical inference and prediction using dynamic Bayesian network analysis with temporal datasets. The software allows users to choose different analysis parameters (e.g. Markov lags and prior topology), and continuously update their data and refine their results. miniTUBA can make temporal predictions to suggest interventions based on an automated learning process pipeline using all data provided. Preliminary tests using synthetic data and laboratory research data indicate that miniTUBA accurately identifies regulatory network structures from temporal data. miniTUBA is available at http://www.minituba.org.

  20. Probabilistic inference using linear Gaussian importance sampling for hybrid Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Wei; Chang, K. C.

    2005-05-01

    Probabilistic inference for Bayesian networks is in general NP-hard using either exact algorithms or approximate methods. However, for very complex networks, only the approximate methods such as stochastic sampling could be used to provide a solution given any time constraint. There are several simulation methods currently available. They include logic sampling (the first proposed stochastic method for Bayesian networks, the likelihood weighting algorithm) the most commonly used simulation method because of its simplicity and efficiency, the Markov blanket scoring method, and the importance sampling algorithm. In this paper, we first briefly review and compare these available simulation methods, then we propose an improved importance sampling algorithm called linear Gaussian importance sampling algorithm for general hybrid model (LGIS). LGIS is aimed for hybrid Bayesian networks consisting of both discrete and continuous random variables with arbitrary distributions. It uses linear function and Gaussian additive noise to approximate the true conditional probability distribution for continuous variable given both its parents and evidence in a Bayesian network. One of the most important features of the newly developed method is that it can adaptively learn the optimal important function from the previous samples. We test the inference performance of LGIS using a 16-node linear Gaussian model and a 6-node general hybrid model. The performance comparison with other well-known methods such as Junction tree (JT) and likelihood weighting (LW) shows that LGIS-GHM is very promising.

  1. Aging Influence on Gray Matter Structural Associations within the Default Mode Network Utilizing Bayesian Network Modeling.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yan; Chen, Kewei; Zhang, Jiacai; Yao, Li; Li, Ke; Jin, Zhen; Ye, Qing; Guo, Xiaojuan

    2014-01-01

    Recent neuroimaging studies have revealed normal aging-related alterations in functional and structural brain networks such as the default mode network (DMN). However, less is understood about specific brain structural dependencies or interactions between brain regions within the DMN in the normal aging process. In this study, using Bayesian network (BN) modeling, we analyzed gray matter volume data from 109 young and 82 old subjects to characterize the influence of aging on associations between core brain regions within the DMN. Furthermore, we investigated the discriminability of the aging-associated BN models for the young and old groups. Compared to their young counterparts, the old subjects showed significant reductions in connections from right inferior temporal cortex (ITC) to medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), right hippocampus (HP) to right ITC, and mPFC to posterior cingulate cortex and increases in connections from left HP to mPFC and right inferior parietal cortex to right ITC. Moreover, the classification results showed that the aging-related BN models could predict group membership with 88.48% accuracy, 88.07% sensitivity, and 89.02% specificity. Our findings suggest that structural associations within the DMN may be affected by normal aging and provide crucial information about aging effects on brain structural networks.

  2. On The Use of Dynamic Bayesian Networks in Reconstructing Functional Neuronal Networks from Spike Train Ensembles

    PubMed Central

    Eldawlatly, Seif; Zhou, Yang; Jin, Rong; Oweiss, Karim G.

    2009-01-01

    Coordination among cortical neurons is believed to be key element in mediating many high level cortical processes such as perception, attention, learning and memory formation. Inferring the topology of the neural circuitry underlying this coordination is important to characterize the highly non-linear, time-varying interactions between cortical neurons in the presence of complex stimuli. In this work, we investigate the applicability of Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) in inferring the effective connectivity between spiking cortical neurons from their observed spike trains. We demonstrate that DBNs can infer the underlying non-linear and time-varying causal interactions between these neurons and can discriminate between mono and polysynaptic links between them under certain constraints governing their putative connectivity. We analyzed conditionally-Poisson spike train data mimicking spiking activity of cortical networks of small and moderately-large sizes. The performance was assessed and compared to other methods under systematic variations of the network structure to mimic a wide range of responses typically observed in the cortex. Results demonstrate the utility of DBN in inferring the effective connectivity in cortical networks. PMID:19852619

  3. Applying Bayesian belief networks in rapid response situations

    SciTech Connect

    Gibson, William L; Deborah, Leishman, A.; Van Eeckhout, Edward

    2008-01-01

    The authors have developed an enhanced Bayesian analysis tool called the Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) for monitoring and surveillance. The enhancements are suited for Rapid Response Situations where decisions must be made based on uncertain and incomplete evidence from many diverse and heterogeneous sources. The enhancements extend the probabilistic results of the traditional Bayesian analysis by (1) better quantifying uncertainty arising from model parameter uncertainty and uncertain evidence, (2) optimizing the collection of evidence to reach conclusions more quickly, and (3) allowing the analyst to determine the influence of the remaining evidence that cannot be obtained in the time allowed. These extended features give the analyst and decision maker a better comprehension of the adequacy of the acquired evidence and hence the quality of the hurried decisions. They also describe two example systems where the above features are highlighted.

  4. Allergic Conjunctivitis

    MedlinePlus

    ... conjunctivitis is not contagious.Some common allergens include:Pollen fromtrees, grass and ragweedAnimal skin andsecretions such as ... symptoms. For example, if you are allergic to pollen or mold, stay indoors when pollen and mold ...

  5. Learning ensembles of neural networks by means of a Bayesian artificial immune system.

    PubMed

    Castro, Pablo A Dalbem; Von Zuben, Fernando José

    2011-02-01

    In this paper, we apply an immune-inspired approach to design ensembles of heterogeneous neural networks for classification problems. Our proposal, called Bayesian artificial immune system, is an estimation of distribution algorithm that replaces the traditional mutation and cloning operators with a probabilistic model, more specifically a Bayesian network, representing the joint distribution of promising solutions. Among the additional attributes provided by the Bayesian framework inserted into an immune-inspired search algorithm are the automatic control of the population size along the search and the inherent ability to promote and preserve diversity among the candidate solutions. Both are attributes generally absent from alternative estimation of distribution algorithms, and both were shown to be useful attributes when implementing the generation and selection of components of the ensemble, thus leading to high-performance classifiers. Several aspects of the design are illustrated in practical applications, including a comparative analysis with other attempts to synthesize ensembles.

  6. Bayesian networks for evaluation of evidence from forensic entomology.

    PubMed

    Andersson, M Gunnar; Sundström, Anders; Lindström, Anders

    2013-09-01

    In the aftermath of a CBRN incident, there is an urgent need to reconstruct events in order to bring the perpetrators to court and to take preventive actions for the future. The challenge is to discriminate, based on available information, between alternative scenarios. Forensic interpretation is used to evaluate to what extent results from the forensic investigation favor the prosecutors' or the defendants' arguments, using the framework of Bayesian hypothesis testing. Recently, several new scientific disciplines have been used in a forensic context. In the AniBioThreat project, the framework was applied to veterinary forensic pathology, tracing of pathogenic microorganisms, and forensic entomology. Forensic entomology is an important tool for estimating the postmortem interval in, for example, homicide investigations as a complement to more traditional methods. In this article we demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian framework for evaluating entomological evidence in a forensic investigation through the analysis of a hypothetical scenario involving suspect movement of carcasses from a clandestine laboratory. Probabilities of different findings under the alternative hypotheses were estimated using a combination of statistical analysis of data, expert knowledge, and simulation, and entomological findings are used to update the beliefs about the prosecutors' and defendants' hypotheses and to calculate the value of evidence. The Bayesian framework proved useful for evaluating complex hypotheses using findings from several insect species, accounting for uncertainty about development rate, temperature, and precolonization. The applicability of the forensic statistic approach to evaluating forensic results from a CBRN incident is discussed.

  7. MapReduce Based Parallel Bayesian Network for Manufacturing Quality Control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Mao-Kuan; Ming, Xin-Guo; Zhang, Xian-Yu; Li, Guo-Ming

    2017-09-01

    Increasing complexity of industrial products and manufacturing processes have challenged conventional statistics based quality management approaches in the circumstances of dynamic production. A Bayesian network and big data analytics integrated approach for manufacturing process quality analysis and control is proposed. Based on Hadoop distributed architecture and MapReduce parallel computing model, big volume and variety quality related data generated during the manufacturing process could be dealt with. Artificial intelligent algorithms, including Bayesian network learning, classification and reasoning, are embedded into the Reduce process. Relying on the ability of the Bayesian network in dealing with dynamic and uncertain problem and the parallel computing power of MapReduce, Bayesian network of impact factors on quality are built based on prior probability distribution and modified with posterior probability distribution. A case study on hull segment manufacturing precision management for ship and offshore platform building shows that computing speed accelerates almost directly proportionally to the increase of computing nodes. It is also proved that the proposed model is feasible for locating and reasoning of root causes, forecasting of manufacturing outcome, and intelligent decision for precision problem solving. The integration of bigdata analytics and BN method offers a whole new perspective in manufacturing quality control.

  8. Bayesian Network Model with Application to Smart Power Semiconductor Lifetime Data.

    PubMed

    Plankensteiner, Kathrin; Bluder, Olivia; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-09-01

    In this article, Bayesian networks are used to model semiconductor lifetime data obtained from a cyclic stress test system. The data of interest are a mixture of log-normal distributions, representing two dominant physical failure mechanisms. Moreover, the data can be censored due to limited test resources. For a better understanding of the complex lifetime behavior, interactions between test settings, geometric designs, material properties, and physical parameters of the semiconductor device are modeled by a Bayesian network. Statistical toolboxes in MATLAB® have been extended and applied to find the best structure of the Bayesian network and to perform parameter learning. Due to censored observations Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are employed to determine the posterior distributions. For model selection the automatic relevance determination (ARD) algorithm and goodness-of-fit criteria such as marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, posterior predictive density distributions, and sum of squared errors of prediction (SSEP) are applied and evaluated. The results indicate that the application of Bayesian networks to semiconductor reliability provides useful information about the interactions between the significant covariates and serves as a reliable alternative to currently applied methods.

  9. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental assessments for evidence-based policy

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the p...

  10. Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis for Unordered Categorical Outcomes with Incomplete Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmid, Christopher H.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Olkin, Ingram

    2014-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of…

  11. Prediction and Assessment of Student Behaviour in Open and Distance Education in Computers Using Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xenos, Michalis

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a methodological approach based on Bayesian Networks for modelling the behaviour of the students of a bachelor course in computers in an Open University that deploys distance educational methods. It describes the structure of the model, its application for modelling the behaviour of student groups in the Informatics Course of…

  12. A General Structure for Legal Arguments about Evidence Using Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Lagnado, David A.

    2013-01-01

    A Bayesian network (BN) is a graphical model of uncertainty that is especially well suited to legal arguments. It enables us to visualize and model dependencies between different hypotheses and pieces of evidence and to calculate the revised probability beliefs about all uncertain factors when any piece of new evidence is presented. Although BNs…

  13. Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

    2009-01-01

    In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

  14. Potential Uses of Bayesian Networks as Tools for Synthesis of Systematic Reviews of Complex Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, G. B.; Mengersen, K.; Meader, N.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention.…

  15. GPU Implementation of Bayesian Neural Network Construction for Data-Intensive Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, Michelle; Prosper, Harrison B.; Meyer-Baese, Anke

    2014-06-01

    We describe a graphical processing unit (GPU) implementation of the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo (HMC) method for training Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN). Our implementation uses NVIDIA's parallel computing architecture, CUDA. We briefly review BNNs and the HMC method and we describe our implementations and give preliminary results.

  16. Potential Uses of Bayesian Networks as Tools for Synthesis of Systematic Reviews of Complex Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, G. B.; Mengersen, K.; Meader, N.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention.…

  17. A Bayesian network approach for causal inferences in pesticide risk assessment and management

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pesticide risk assessment and management must balance societal benefits and ecosystem protection, based on quantified risks and the strength of the causal linkages between uses of the pesticide and socioeconomic and ecological endpoints of concern. A Bayesian network (BN) is a gr...

  18. A General Structure for Legal Arguments about Evidence Using Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Lagnado, David A.

    2013-01-01

    A Bayesian network (BN) is a graphical model of uncertainty that is especially well suited to legal arguments. It enables us to visualize and model dependencies between different hypotheses and pieces of evidence and to calculate the revised probability beliefs about all uncertain factors when any piece of new evidence is presented. Although BNs…

  19. Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2013-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was to establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.

  20. Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks. Research Report. ETS RR-04-17

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2004-01-01

    Assessing fit of psychometric models has always been an issue of enormous interest, but there exists no unanimously agreed upon item fit diagnostic for the models. Bayesian networks, frequently used in educational assessments (see, for example, Mislevy, Almond, Yan, & Steinberg, 2001) primarily for learning about students' knowledge and…

  1. Comparison of a Bayesian network with a logistic regression model to forecast IgA nephropathy.

    PubMed

    Ducher, Michel; Kalbacher, Emilie; Combarnous, François; Finaz de Vilaine, Jérome; McGregor, Brigitte; Fouque, Denis; Fauvel, Jean Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Models are increasingly used in clinical practice to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. The aim of our work was to compare a Bayesian network to logistic regression to forecast IgA nephropathy (IgAN) from simple clinical and biological criteria. Retrospectively, we pooled the results of all biopsies (n = 155) performed by nephrologists in a specialist clinical facility between 2002 and 2009. Two groups were constituted at random. The first subgroup was used to determine the parameters of the models adjusted to data by logistic regression or Bayesian network, and the second was used to compare the performances of the models using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. IgAN was found (on pathology) in 44 patients. Areas under the ROC curves provided by both methods were highly significant but not different from each other. Based on the highest Youden indices, sensitivity reached (100% versus 67%) and specificity (73% versus 95%) using the Bayesian network and logistic regression, respectively. A Bayesian network is at least as efficient as logistic regression to estimate the probability of a patient suffering IgAN, using simple clinical and biological data obtained during consultation.

  2. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

    Treesearch

    B.G. Marcot; J.D. Steventon; G.D. Sutherland; R.K. McCann

    2006-01-01

    We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model...

  3. Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis for Unordered Categorical Outcomes with Incomplete Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmid, Christopher H.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Olkin, Ingram

    2014-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of…

  4. Comparison of a Bayesian Network with a Logistic Regression Model to Forecast IgA Nephropathy

    PubMed Central

    Ducher, Michel; Kalbacher, Emilie; Combarnous, François; Finaz de Vilaine, Jérome; McGregor, Brigitte; Fouque, Denis; Fauvel, Jean Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Models are increasingly used in clinical practice to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. The aim of our work was to compare a Bayesian network to logistic regression to forecast IgA nephropathy (IgAN) from simple clinical and biological criteria. Retrospectively, we pooled the results of all biopsies (n = 155) performed by nephrologists in a specialist clinical facility between 2002 and 2009. Two groups were constituted at random. The first subgroup was used to determine the parameters of the models adjusted to data by logistic regression or Bayesian network, and the second was used to compare the performances of the models using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. IgAN was found (on pathology) in 44 patients. Areas under the ROC curves provided by both methods were highly significant but not different from each other. Based on the highest Youden indices, sensitivity reached (100% versus 67%) and specificity (73% versus 95%) using the Bayesian network and logistic regression, respectively. A Bayesian network is at least as efficient as logistic regression to estimate the probability of a patient suffering IgAN, using simple clinical and biological data obtained during consultation. PMID:24328031

  5. A Bayesian network approach for causal inferences in pesticide risk assessment and management

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pesticide risk assessment and management must balance societal benefits and ecosystem protection, based on quantified risks and the strength of the causal linkages between uses of the pesticide and socioeconomic and ecological endpoints of concern. A Bayesian network (BN) is a gr...

  6. Geometry on the parameter space of the belief propagation algorithm on Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watanabe, Yodai

    2006-01-01

    This Letter considers a geometrical structure on the parameter space of the belief propagation algorithm on Bayesian networks. The statistical manifold of posterior distributions is introduced, and the expression for the information metric on the manifold is derived. The expression is used to construct a cost function which can be regarded as a measure of the distance in the parameter space.

  7. Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network.

    PubMed

    Takiyama, Ken

    2016-05-01

    Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

  8. Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takiyama, Ken

    2016-05-01

    Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

  9. [Allergic conjunctivitis].

    PubMed

    Del Río-Navarro, B E; Sienra-Monge, J J; Castellanos, A; Williams-Gotti, M J

    1992-04-01

    The eye reacts to foreign substances through a variety of specific and non-specific defense mechanisms. Constantly exposed to a great variety of microorganisms, the eye is capable of protecting itself without altering its own structure and function. Its resistance relies upon anatomic and physiological properties of its external components (eyelids, tears, conjunctiva and cornea). Most of the times, the conjunctiva becomes affected, resulting in a clinical picture of conjunctivitis where allergy predominates, expressed as allergic rhinoconjunctivitis, allergic conjunctivitis, vernal keratoconjunctivitis, giant papillary conjunctivitis and flictenular conjunctivitis. The physiopathology is considered to be of type I reaction (IgE mediated). Frequent complains often associated with other allergic diseases are: pruritus, tearing, photofobia and ocular redness. The diagnosis of allergic conjunctivitis in done by means of a throughout clinical history, conjunctival citology and evaluation of specific IgE with immediate skin tests. Treatment is symptomatic (antihistamines, antibiotics and/or topic steroids), but prevention (environmental control and sodium cromoglycate) and specific immunotherapy must be considered.

  10. Bacterial conjunctivitis

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Most cases of conjunctivitis in adults are probably due to viral infection, but children are more likely to develop bacterial conjunctivitis than they are viral forms. The main bacterial pathogens are Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae in adults and children, and Moraxella catarrhalis in children. Contact lens wearers may be more likely to develop gram-negative infections. Bacterial keratitis occurs in up to 30 per 100,000 contact lens wearers. Methods and outcomes We conducted a systematic review and aimed to answer the following clinical questions: What are the effects of empirical treatment in adults and children with suspected bacterial conjunctivitis? What are the effects of treatment in adults and children with bacteriologically confirmed bacterial conjunctivitis? What are the effects of treatment in adults and children with clinically confirmed gonococcal conjunctivitis? We searched: Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library, and other important databases up to July 2011 (Clinical Evidence reviews are updated periodically; please check our website for the most up-to-date version of this review). We included harms alerts from relevant organisations such as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). Results We found 44 systematic reviews, RCTs, or observational studies that met our inclusion criteria. We performed a GRADE evaluation of the quality of evidence for interventions. Conclusions In this systematic review we present information relating to the effectiveness and safety of the following interventions: ocular decongestants, oral antibiotics, parenteral antibiotics, saline, topical antibiotics, and warm compresses. PMID:22348418

  11. Bacterial conjunctivitis.

    PubMed

    Epling, John

    2012-02-20

    Most cases of conjunctivitis in adults are probably due to viral infection, but children are more likely to develop bacterial conjunctivitis than they are viral forms. The main bacterial pathogens are Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae in adults and children, and Moraxella catarrhalis in children. Contact lens wearers may be more likely to develop gram-negative infections. Bacterial keratitis occurs in up to 30 per 100,000 contact lens wearers. We conducted a systematic review and aimed to answer the following clinical questions: What are the effects of empirical treatment in adults and children with suspected bacterial conjunctivitis? What are the effects of treatment in adults and children with bacteriologically confirmed bacterial conjunctivitis? What are the effects of treatment in adults and children with clinically confirmed gonococcal conjunctivitis? We searched: Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library, and other important databases up to July 2011 (Clinical Evidence reviews are updated periodically; please check our website for the most up-to-date version of this review). We included harms alerts from relevant organisations such as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). We found 44 systematic reviews, RCTs, or observational studies that met our inclusion criteria. We performed a GRADE evaluation of the quality of evidence for interventions. In this systematic review we present information relating to the effectiveness and safety of the following interventions: ocular decongestants, oral antibiotics, parenteral antibiotics, saline, topical antibiotics, and warm compresses.

  12. A Bayesian network approach to the database search problem in criminal proceedings

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The ‘database search problem’, that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions

  13. Prediction of annual water consumption in Guangdong Province based on Bayesian neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Tao; Xue, Huifeng

    2017-06-01

    In the context of the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system, the role of water demand forecasting for regional water resources management is becoming increasingly significant. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of water consumption in Guangdong Province, we made the forecast index system of annual water consumption, and constructed the forecast model of annual water consumption of BP neural network, then optimized the regularization BP neural network in utilization rate of water. The results showed that the average absolute percentage error of Bayesian neural network prediction model and BP neural network prediction model is 0.70% and 0.46% respectively. BP neural network model by Bayesian regularization is more ability to improve the accuracy of about 0.24%, more in line with the regional annual water demand forecast high precision requirements. Take the planning index value of Guangdong Province’s thirteen five plan into Bayesian neural network forecasting model, and its forecast value is 45.432 billion cubic meters, which will reach 456.04 billion cubic meters of red water in Guangdong Province in 2020.

  14. Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report).

    SciTech Connect

    Marzouk, Youssef M.; Zurn, Rena M.; Boggs, Paul T.; Diegert, Kathleen V.; Red-Horse, John Robert; Pebay, Philippe Pierre

    2007-05-01

    Current work on the Integrated Stockpile Evaluation (ISE) project is evidence of Sandia's commitment to maintaining the integrity of the nuclear weapons stockpile. In this report, we undertake a key element in that process: development of an analytical framework for determining the reliability of the stockpile in a realistic environment of time-variance, inherent uncertainty, and sparse available information. This framework is probabilistic in nature and is founded on a novel combination of classical and computational Bayesian analysis, Bayesian networks, and polynomial chaos expansions. We note that, while the focus of the effort is stockpile-related, it is applicable to any reasonably-structured hierarchical system, including systems with feedback.

  15. Apathy and impaired emotional facial recognition networks overlap in Parkinson's disease: a PET study with conjunction analyses.

    PubMed

    Robert, Gabriel; Le Jeune, Florence; Dondaine, Thibault; Drapier, Sophie; Péron, Julie; Lozachmeur, Clément; Sauleau, Paul; Houvenaghel, Jean-François; Travers, David; Millet, Bruno; Vérin, Marc; Drapier, Dominique

    2014-10-01

    Apathy is a disabling non-motor symptom that is frequently observed in Parkinson's disease (PD). Its description and physiopathology suggest that it is partially mediated by emotional impairment, but this research issue has never been addressed at a clinical and metabolic level. We therefore conducted a metabolic study using (18)fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography ((18)FDG PET) in 36 PD patients without depression and dementia. Apathy was assessed on the Apathy Evaluation Scale (AES), and emotional facial recognition (EFR) performances (ie, percentage of correct responses) were calculated for each patient. Confounding factors such as age, antiparkinsonian and antidepressant medication, global cognitive functions and depressive symptoms were controlled for. We found a significant negative correlation between AES scores and performances on the EFR task. The apathy network was characterised by increased metabolism within the left posterior cingulate (PC) cortex (Brodmann area (BA) 31). The impaired EFR network was characterised by decreased metabolism within the bilateral PC gyrus (BA 31), right superior frontal gyrus (BAs 10, 9 and 6) and left superior frontal gyrus (BA 10 and 11). By applying conjunction analyses to both networks, we identified the right premotor cortex (BA 6), right orbitofrontal cortex (BA 10), left middle frontal gyrus (BA 8) and left posterior cingulate gyrus (BA 31) as the structures supporting the association between apathy and impaired EFR. These results confirm that apathy in PD is partially mediated by impaired EFR, opening up new prospects for alleviating apathy in PD, such as emotional rehabilitation.

  16. A Graphical Approach to Diagnosing the Validity of the Conditional Independence Assumptions of a Bayesian Network Given Data

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Whitney, Paul D.

    2012-12-14

    Bayesian networks have attained widespread use in data analysis and decision making. Well studied topics include: efficient inference, evidence propagation, parameter learning from data for complete and incomplete data scenarios, expert elicitation for calibrating Bayesian network probabilities, and structure learning. It is not uncommon for the researcher to assume the structure of the Bayesian network or to glean the structure from expert elicitation or domain knowledge. In this scenario, the model may be calibrated through learning the parameters from relevant data. There is a lack of work on model diagnostics for fitted Bayesian networks; this is the contribution of this paper. We key on the definition of (conditional) independence to develop a graphical diagnostic method which indicates if the conditional independence assumptions imposed when one assumes the structure of the Bayesian network are supported by the data. We develop the approach theoretically and describe a Monte Carlo method to generate uncertainty measures for the consistency of the data with conditional independence assumptions under the model structure. We describe how this theoretical information and the data are presented in a graphical diagnostic tool. We demonstrate the approach through data simulated from Bayesian networks under different conditional independence assumptions. We also apply the diagnostic to a real world data set. The results indicate that our approach is a reasonable way of visualizing and inspecting the conditional independence assumption of a Bayesian network given data.

  17. Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

    2003-01-01

    Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

  18. Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

    2003-01-01

    Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

  19. Clinical outcome prediction in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences.

    PubMed

    Lo, Benjamin W Y; Macdonald, R Loch; Baker, Andrew; Levine, Mitchell A H

    2013-01-01

    The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients). Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs). Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique) denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication.

  20. Conjunction Functions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riddle, Bob

    2007-01-01

    This spring, as the school year starts to wind down, there will be many opportunities for students to observe bright planets and to wrap up the year with some great conjunctions and close occultation with the Moon, planets, bright stars, and star clusters). These observations can be coordinated with student observations of the Moon's phase cycle…

  1. Conjunction Functions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riddle, Bob

    2007-01-01

    This spring, as the school year starts to wind down, there will be many opportunities for students to observe bright planets and to wrap up the year with some great conjunctions and close occultation with the Moon, planets, bright stars, and star clusters). These observations can be coordinated with student observations of the Moon's phase cycle…

  2. Interactive Naive Bayesian network: A new approach of constructing gene-gene interaction network for cancer classification.

    PubMed

    Tian, Xue W; Lim, Joon S

    2015-01-01

    Naive Bayesian (NB) network classifier is a simple and well-known type of classifier, which can be easily induced from a DNA microarray data set. However, a strong conditional independence assumption of NB network sometimes can lead to weak classification performance. In this paper, we propose a new approach of interactive naive Bayesian (INB) network to weaken the conditional independence of NB network and classify cancers using DNA microarray data set. We selected the differently expressed genes (DEGs) to reduce the dimension of the microarray data set. Then, an interactive parent which has the biggest influence among all DEGs is searched for each DEG. And then we calculate a weight to represent the interactive relationship between a DEG and its parent. Finally, the gene-gene interaction network is constructed. We experimentally test the INB network in terms of classification accuracy using leukemia and colon DNA microarray data sets, then we compare it with the NB network. The INB network can get higher classification accuracies than NB network. And INB network can show the gene-gene interactions visually.

  3. High-accuracy Decision of Call-triage by Using Bayesian Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yunoki, Shota; Hamagami, Tomoki; Oshige, Kenji; Kawakami, Chihiro; Suzuki, Noriyuki

    A new call-triage system, a key part of emergency support system with stochastic network model is examined. The call-triage is an operation allowing the efficient decision of service grade and dispatching of suitable rescue team service from phone call information. Nowadays, the call-triage is being trialed on a few cities and is achieving an effect. However, there is the issue that if under-triage in which the condition of sick person is estimated more lightly is eliminated, the efficiency is degraded (over-triage). In this report, in order to overcome the issue, the Bayesian network scheme is examined to the call-triage system. The experiments with real call-triage data set results show the Bayesian network achieves precision enhancement.

  4. Bayesian Computation Methods for Inferring Regulatory Network Models Using Biomedical Data.

    PubMed

    Tian, Tianhai

    2016-01-01

    The rapid advancement of high-throughput technologies provides huge amounts of information for gene expression and protein activity in the genome-wide scale. The availability of genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics dataset gives an unprecedented opportunity to study detailed molecular regulations that is very important to precision medicine. However, it is still a significant challenge to design effective and efficient method to infer the network structure and dynamic property of regulatory networks. In recent years a number of computing methods have been designed to explore the regulatory mechanisms as well as estimate unknown model parameters. Among them, the Bayesian inference method can combine both prior knowledge and experimental data to generate updated information regarding the regulatory mechanisms. This chapter gives a brief review for Bayesian statistical methods that are used to infer the network structure and estimate model parameters based on experimental data.

  5. A sparse structure learning algorithm for Gaussian Bayesian Network identification from high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Huang, Shuai; Li, Jing; Ye, Jieping; Fleisher, Adam; Chen, Kewei; Wu, Teresa; Reiman, Eric

    2013-06-01

    Structure learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is an important topic in machine learning. Driven by modern applications in genetics and brain sciences, accurate and efficient learning of large-scale BN structures from high-dimensional data becomes a challenging problem. To tackle this challenge, we propose a Sparse Bayesian Network (SBN) structure learning algorithm that employs a novel formulation involving one L1-norm penalty term to impose sparsity and another penalty term to ensure that the learned BN is a Directed Acyclic Graph--a required property of BNs. Through both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on 11 moderate and large benchmark networks with various sample sizes, we show that SBN leads to improved learning accuracy, scalability, and efficiency as compared with 10 existing popular BN learning algorithms. We apply SBN to a real-world application of brain connectivity modeling for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and reveal findings that could lead to advancements in AD research.

  6. Improved head direction command classification using an optimised Bayesian neural network.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Son T; Nguyen, Hung T; Taylor, Philip B; Middleton, James

    2006-01-01

    Assistive technologies have recently emerged to improve the quality of life of severely disabled people by enhancing their independence in daily activities. Since many of those individuals have limited or non-existing control from the neck downward, alternative hands-free input modalities have become very important for these people to access assistive devices. In hands-free control, head movement has been proved to be a very effective user interface as it can provide a comfortable, reliable and natural way to access the device. Recently, neural networks have been shown to be useful not only for real-time pattern recognition but also for creating user-adaptive models. Since multi-layer perceptron neural networks trained using standard back-propagation may cause poor generalisation, the Bayesian technique has been proposed to improve the generalisation and robustness of these networks. This paper describes the use of Bayesian neural networks in developing a hands-free wheelchair control system. The experimental results show that with the optimised architecture, classification Bayesian neural networks can detect head commands of wheelchair users accurately irrespective to their levels of injuries.

  7. Uncovering robust patterns of microRNA co-expression across cancers using Bayesian Relevance Networks

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Co-expression networks have long been used as a tool for investigating the molecular circuitry governing biological systems. However, most algorithms for constructing co-expression networks were developed in the microarray era, before high-throughput sequencing—with its unique statistical properties—became the norm for expression measurement. Here we develop Bayesian Relevance Networks, an algorithm that uses Bayesian reasoning about expression levels to account for the differing levels of uncertainty in expression measurements between highly- and lowly-expressed entities, and between samples with different sequencing depths. It combines data from groups of samples (e.g., replicates) to estimate group expression levels and confidence ranges. It then computes uncertainty-moderated estimates of cross-group correlations between entities, and uses permutation testing to assess their statistical significance. Using large scale miRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that our Bayesian update of the classical Relevance Networks algorithm provides improved reproducibility in co-expression estimates and lower false discovery rates in the resulting co-expression networks. Software is available at www.perkinslab.ca. PMID:28817636

  8. Uncovering robust patterns of microRNA co-expression across cancers using Bayesian Relevance Networks.

    PubMed

    Ramachandran, Parameswaran; Sánchez-Taltavull, Daniel; Perkins, Theodore J

    2017-01-01

    Co-expression networks have long been used as a tool for investigating the molecular circuitry governing biological systems. However, most algorithms for constructing co-expression networks were developed in the microarray era, before high-throughput sequencing-with its unique statistical properties-became the norm for expression measurement. Here we develop Bayesian Relevance Networks, an algorithm that uses Bayesian reasoning about expression levels to account for the differing levels of uncertainty in expression measurements between highly- and lowly-expressed entities, and between samples with different sequencing depths. It combines data from groups of samples (e.g., replicates) to estimate group expression levels and confidence ranges. It then computes uncertainty-moderated estimates of cross-group correlations between entities, and uses permutation testing to assess their statistical significance. Using large scale miRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that our Bayesian update of the classical Relevance Networks algorithm provides improved reproducibility in co-expression estimates and lower false discovery rates in the resulting co-expression networks. Software is available at www.perkinslab.ca.

  9. [Using the Tabu-search-algorithm-based Bayesian network to analyze the risk factors of coronary heart diseases].

    PubMed

    Wei, Z; Zhang, X L; Rao, H X; Wang, H F; Wang, X; Qiu, L X

    2016-06-01

    Under the available data gathered from a coronary study questionnaires with 10 792 cases, this article constructs a Bayesian network model based on the tabu search algorithm and calculates the conditional probability of each node, using the Maximum-likelihood. Pros and cons of the Bayesian network model are evaluated to compare against the logistic regression model in the analysis of coronary factors. Applicability of this network model in clinical study is also investigated. Results show that Bayesian network model can reveal the complex correlations among influencing factors on the coronary and the relationship with coronary heart diseases. Bayesian network model seems promising and more practical than the logistic regression model in analyzing the influencing factors of coronary heart disease.

  10. Bayesian Networks Illustrate Genomic and Residual Trait Connections in Maize (Zea mays L.)

    PubMed Central

    Töpner, Katrin; Rosa, Guilherme J. M.; Gianola, Daniel; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2017-01-01

    Relationships among traits were investigated on the genomic and residual levels using novel methodology. This included inference on these relationships via Bayesian networks and an assessment of the networks with structural equation models. The methodology employed three steps. First, a Bayesian multiple-trait Gaussian model was fitted to the data to decompose phenotypic values into their genomic and residual components. Second, genomic and residual network structures among traits were learned from estimates of these two components. Network learning was performed using six different algorithmic settings for comparison, of which two were score-based and four were constraint-based approaches. Third, structural equation model analyses ranked the networks in terms of goodness of fit and predictive ability, and compared them with the standard multiple-trait fully recursive network. The methodology was applied to experimental data representing the European heterotic maize pools Dent and Flint (Zea mays L.). Inferences on genomic and residual trait connections were depicted separately as directed acyclic graphs. These graphs provide information beyond mere pairwise genetic or residual associations between traits, illustrating for example conditional independencies and hinting at potential causal links among traits. Network analysis suggested some genetic correlations as potentially spurious. Genomic and residual networks were compared between Dent and Flint. PMID:28637811

  11. Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

    PubMed

    Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

    2016-08-01

    Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

  12. CGBayesNets: Conditional Gaussian Bayesian Network Learning and Inference with Mixed Discrete and Continuous Data

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Scott T.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian Networks (BN) have been a popular predictive modeling formalism in bioinformatics, but their application in modern genomics has been slowed by an inability to cleanly handle domains with mixed discrete and continuous variables. Existing free BN software packages either discretize continuous variables, which can lead to information loss, or do not include inference routines, which makes prediction with the BN impossible. We present CGBayesNets, a BN package focused around prediction of a clinical phenotype from mixed discrete and continuous variables, which fills these gaps. CGBayesNets implements Bayesian likelihood and inference algorithms for the conditional Gaussian Bayesian network (CGBNs) formalism, one appropriate for predicting an outcome of interest from, e.g., multimodal genomic data. We provide four different network learning algorithms, each making a different tradeoff between computational cost and network likelihood. CGBayesNets provides a full suite of functions for model exploration and verification, including cross validation, bootstrapping, and AUC manipulation. We highlight several results obtained previously with CGBayesNets, including predictive models of wood properties from tree genomics, leukemia subtype classification from mixed genomic data, and robust prediction of intensive care unit mortality outcomes from metabolomic profiles. We also provide detailed example analysis on public metabolomic and gene expression datasets. CGBayesNets is implemented in MATLAB and available as MATLAB source code, under an Open Source license and anonymous download at http://www.cgbayesnets.com. PMID:24922310

  13. Bayesian Network Inference Enables Unbiased Phenotypic Anchoring of Transcriptomic Responses to Cigarette Smoke in Humans.

    PubMed

    Jennen, Danyel G J; van Leeuwen, Danitsja M; Hendrickx, Diana M; Gottschalk, Ralph W H; van Delft, Joost H M; Kleinjans, Jos C S

    2015-10-19

    Microarray-based transcriptomic analysis has been demonstrated to hold the opportunity to study the effects of human exposure to, e.g., chemical carcinogens at the whole genome level, thus yielding broad-ranging molecular information on possible carcinogenic effects. Since genes do not operate individually but rather through concerted interactions, analyzing and visualizing networks of genes should provide important mechanistic information, especially upon connecting them to functional parameters, such as those derived from measurements of biomarkers for exposure and carcinogenic risk. Conventional methods such as hierarchical clustering and correlation analyses are frequently used to address these complex interactions but are limited as they do not provide directional causal dependence relationships. Therefore, our aim was to apply Bayesian network inference with the purpose of phenotypic anchoring of modified gene expressions. We investigated a use case on transcriptomic responses to cigarette smoking in humans, in association with plasma cotinine levels as biomarkers of exposure and aromatic DNA-adducts in blood cells as biomarkers of carcinogenic risk. Many of the genes that appear in the Bayesian networks surrounding plasma cotinine, and to a lesser extent around aromatic DNA-adducts, hold biologically relevant functions in inducing severe adverse effects of smoking. In conclusion, this study shows that Bayesian network inference enables unbiased phenotypic anchoring of transcriptomics responses. Furthermore, in all inferred Bayesian networks several dependencies are found which point to known but also to new relationships between the expression of specific genes, cigarette smoke exposure, DNA damaging-effects, and smoking-related diseases, in particular associated with apoptosis, DNA repair, and tumor suppression, as well as with autoimmunity.

  14. From complex questionnaire and interviewing data to intelligent Bayesian Network models for medical decision support

    PubMed Central

    Constantinou, Anthony Costa; Fenton, Norman; Marsh, William; Radlinski, Lukasz

    2016-01-01

    Objectives 1) To develop a rigorous and repeatable method for building effective Bayesian network (BN) models for medical decision support from complex, unstructured and incomplete patient questionnaires and interviews that inevitably contain examples of repetitive, redundant and contradictory responses; 2) To exploit expert knowledge in the BN development since further data acquisition is usually not possible; 3) To ensure the BN model can be used for interventional analysis; 4) To demonstrate why using data alone to learn the model structure and parameters is often unsatisfactory even when extensive data is available. Method The method is based on applying a range of recent BN developments targeted at helping experts build BNs given limited data. While most of the components of the method are based on established work, its novelty is that it provides a rigorous consolidated and generalised framework that addresses the whole life-cycle of BN model development. The method is based on two original and recent validated BN models in forensic psychiatry, known as DSVM-MSS and DSVM-P. Results When employed with the same datasets, the DSVM-MSS demonstrated competitive to superior predictive performance (AUC scores 0.708 and 0.797) against the state-of-the-art (AUC scores ranging from 0.527 to 0.705), and the DSVM-P demonstrated superior predictive performance (cross-validated AUC score of 0.78) against the state-of-the-art (AUC scores ranging from 0.665 to 0.717). More importantly, the resulting models go beyond improving predictive accuracy and into usefulness for risk management purposes through intervention, and enhanced decision support in terms of answering complex clinical questions that are based on unobserved evidence. Conclusions This development process is applicable to any application domain which involves large-scale decision analysis based on such complex information, rather than based on data with hard facts, and in conjunction with the incorporation of

  15. From complex questionnaire and interviewing data to intelligent Bayesian network models for medical decision support.

    PubMed

    Constantinou, Anthony Costa; Fenton, Norman; Marsh, William; Radlinski, Lukasz

    2016-02-01

    (1) To develop a rigorous and repeatable method for building effective Bayesian network (BN) models for medical decision support from complex, unstructured and incomplete patient questionnaires and interviews that inevitably contain examples of repetitive, redundant and contradictory responses; (2) To exploit expert knowledge in the BN development since further data acquisition is usually not possible; (3) To ensure the BN model can be used for interventional analysis; (4) To demonstrate why using data alone to learn the model structure and parameters is often unsatisfactory even when extensive data is available. The method is based on applying a range of recent BN developments targeted at helping experts build BNs given limited data. While most of the components of the method are based on established work, its novelty is that it provides a rigorous consolidated and generalised framework that addresses the whole life-cycle of BN model development. The method is based on two original and recent validated BN models in forensic psychiatry, known as DSVM-MSS and DSVM-P. When employed with the same datasets, the DSVM-MSS demonstrated competitive to superior predictive performance (AUC scores 0.708 and 0.797) against the state-of-the-art (AUC scores ranging from 0.527 to 0.705), and the DSVM-P demonstrated superior predictive performance (cross-validated AUC score of 0.78) against the state-of-the-art (AUC scores ranging from 0.665 to 0.717). More importantly, the resulting models go beyond improving predictive accuracy and into usefulness for risk management purposes through intervention, and enhanced decision support in terms of answering complex clinical questions that are based on unobserved evidence. This development process is applicable to any application domain which involves large-scale decision analysis based on such complex information, rather than based on data with hard facts, and in conjunction with the incorporation of expert knowledge for decision support

  16. SU-E-T-51: Bayesian Network Models for Radiotherapy Error Detection

    SciTech Connect

    Kalet, A; Phillips, M; Gennari, J

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To develop a probabilistic model of radiotherapy plans using Bayesian networks that will detect potential errors in radiation delivery. Methods: Semi-structured interviews with medical physicists and other domain experts were employed to generate a set of layered nodes and arcs forming a Bayesian Network (BN) which encapsulates relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies. Concepts in the final network were limited to those whose parameters are represented in the institutional database at a level significant enough to develop mathematical distributions. The concept-relation knowledge base was constructed using the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and translated into Hugin Expert Bayes Network files via the the RHugin package in the R statistical programming language. A subset of de-identified data derived from a Mosaiq relational database representing 1937 unique prescription cases was processed and pre-screened for errors and then used by the Hugin implementation of the Estimation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for machine learning all parameter distributions. Individual networks were generated for each of several commonly treated anatomic regions identified by ICD-9 neoplasm categories including lung, brain, lymphoma, and female breast. Results: The resulting Bayesian networks represent a large part of the probabilistic knowledge inherent in treatment planning. By populating the networks entirely with data captured from a clinical oncology information management system over the course of several years of normal practice, we were able to create accurate probability tables with no additional time spent by experts or clinicians. These probabilistic descriptions of the treatment planning allow one to check if a treatment plan is within the normal scope of practice, given some initial set of clinical evidence and thereby detect for potential outliers to be flagged for further investigation. Conclusion: The networks developed here support the

  17. Costal vulnerability systems-network using Fuzzy and Bayesian approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taramelli, A.; Valentini, E.; Filipponi, F.; Nguyen Xuan, A.; Arosio, M.

    2016-12-01

    Marine drivers such as surge in the context of SLR, are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assesment, management and planning (e.g. the role of dune ridges in surge mitigation and climate adaptation) can enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing the vulnerability is a key concern of many SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables, etc.. To this end it is unclear how SLR, subsidence and erosion might affect coastal subsistence resources because of highly complex interactions and because of the subjective system of weighting many variables and their interaction within the systems. In this contribution, making the best use of many EO products, in situ data and modelling, we propose a multidimensional surge vulnerability assessment that aims at combining together geophysical and socioeconomic variable on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian approach. The final goal is providing insight in understanding how to quantify regulating ecosystem services.

  18. NetDiff – Bayesian model selection for differential gene regulatory network inference

    PubMed Central

    Thorne, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Differential networks allow us to better understand the changes in cellular processes that are exhibited in conditions of interest, identifying variations in gene regulation or protein interaction between, for example, cases and controls, or in response to external stimuli. Here we present a novel methodology for the inference of differential gene regulatory networks from gene expression microarray data. Specifically we apply a Bayesian model selection approach to compare models of conserved and varying network structure, and use Gaussian graphical models to represent the network structures. We apply a variational inference approach to the learning of Gaussian graphical models of gene regulatory networks, that enables us to perform Bayesian model selection that is significantly more computationally efficient than Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches. Our method is demonstrated to be more robust than independent analysis of data from multiple conditions when applied to synthetic network data, generating fewer false positive predictions of differential edges. We demonstrate the utility of our approach on real world gene expression microarray data by applying it to existing data from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis cases with and without mutations in C9orf72, and controls, where we are able to identify differential network interactions for further investigation. PMID:27982083

  19. NetDiff - Bayesian model selection for differential gene regulatory network inference.

    PubMed

    Thorne, Thomas

    2016-12-16

    Differential networks allow us to better understand the changes in cellular processes that are exhibited in conditions of interest, identifying variations in gene regulation or protein interaction between, for example, cases and controls, or in response to external stimuli. Here we present a novel methodology for the inference of differential gene regulatory networks from gene expression microarray data. Specifically we apply a Bayesian model selection approach to compare models of conserved and varying network structure, and use Gaussian graphical models to represent the network structures. We apply a variational inference approach to the learning of Gaussian graphical models of gene regulatory networks, that enables us to perform Bayesian model selection that is significantly more computationally efficient than Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches. Our method is demonstrated to be more robust than independent analysis of data from multiple conditions when applied to synthetic network data, generating fewer false positive predictions of differential edges. We demonstrate the utility of our approach on real world gene expression microarray data by applying it to existing data from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis cases with and without mutations in C9orf72, and controls, where we are able to identify differential network interactions for further investigation.

  20. The Max-Min High-Order Dynamic Bayesian Network for Learning Gene Regulatory Networks with Time-Delayed Regulations.

    PubMed

    Li, Yifeng; Chen, Haifen; Zheng, Jie; Ngom, Alioune

    2016-01-01

    Accurately reconstructing gene regulatory network (GRN) from gene expression data is a challenging task in systems biology. Although some progresses have been made, the performance of GRN reconstruction still has much room for improvement. Because many regulatory events are asynchronous, learning gene interactions with multiple time delays is an effective way to improve the accuracy of GRN reconstruction. Here, we propose a new approach, called Max-Min high-order dynamic Bayesian network (MMHO-DBN) by extending the Max-Min hill-climbing Bayesian network technique originally devised for learning a Bayesian network's structure from static data. Our MMHO-DBN can explicitly model the time lags between regulators and targets in an efficient manner. It first uses constraint-based ideas to limit the space of potential structures, and then applies search-and-score ideas to search for an optimal HO-DBN structure. The performance of MMHO-DBN to GRN reconstruction was evaluated using both synthetic and real gene expression time-series data. Results show that MMHO-DBN is more accurate than current time-delayed GRN learning methods, and has an intermediate computing performance. Furthermore, it is able to learn long time-delayed relationships between genes. We applied sensitivity analysis on our model to study the performance variation along different parameter settings. The result provides hints on the setting of parameters of MMHO-DBN.

  1. A Bayesian network model of proteins' association with promyelocytic leukemia (PML) nuclear bodies.

    PubMed

    Bodén, Mikael; Dellaire, Graham; Burrage, Kevin; Bailey, Timothy L

    2010-04-01

    The modularity that nuclear organization brings has the potential to explain the function of aggregates of proteins and RNA. Promyelocytic leukemia nuclear bodies are implicated in important regulatory processes. To understand the complement of proteins associated with these intra-nuclear bodies, we construct a Bayesian network model that integrates sequence and protein-protein interaction data. The model predicts association with promyelocytic leukemia nuclear bodies accurately when interaction data is available. At a false positive rate of 10%, the true positive rate is almost 50%, indicated by an independent nuclear proteome reference set. The model provides strong support for further expanding the protein complement with several important regulators and a richer functional repertoire. Using special support vector machine (SVM)-nodes (equipped with string kernels), the Bayesian network is also able to produce predictions on the basis of sequence only, with an accuracy superior to that of baseline models. Supplementary Material is available online at www.liebertonline.com.

  2. Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

    2009-01-01

    This CD contains files that support the talk (see CASI ID 20100021404). There are 24 models that relate to the ADAPT system and 1 Excel worksheet. In the paper an investigation into the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems is described. The high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems are described in the talk. The data in the CD are the models of the 24 different power systems.

  3. Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

    2009-01-01

    This CD contains files that support the talk (see CASI ID 20100021404). There are 24 models that relate to the ADAPT system and 1 Excel worksheet. In the paper an investigation into the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems is described. The high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems are described in the talk. The data in the CD are the models of the 24 different power systems.

  4. Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference Using Clique Tree Growth Curves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mengshoel, Ole J.

    2010-01-01

    One of the main approaches to performing computation in Bayesian networks (BNs) is clique tree clustering and propagation. The clique tree approach consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network, and while it was introduced in the 1980s, there is still a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time depends on variations in BN size and structure. In this article, we improve this understanding by developing an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN s non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, and (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for the total size of each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, there are two sets and two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, where random bipartite BNs generated using the BPART algorithm are studied, we systematically increase the out-degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, by increasing the number of leaf nodes. Surprisingly, root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves, an S-shaped family of curves that has previously been used to describe growth processes in biology, medicine, and neuroscience. We believe that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering for a certain class of Bayesian networks; presents an aid for trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves; and ultimately provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms.

  5. Hybrid ICA-Bayesian network approach reveals distinct effective connectivity differences in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Kim, D; Burge, J; Lane, T; Pearlson, G D; Kiehl, K A; Calhoun, V D

    2008-10-01

    We utilized a discrete dynamic Bayesian network (dDBN) approach (Burge, J., Lane, T., Link, H., Qiu, S., Clark, V.P., 2007. Discrete dynamic Bayesian network analysis of fMRI data. Hum Brain Mapp.) to determine differences in brain regions between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls on a measure of effective connectivity, termed the approximate conditional likelihood score (ACL) (Burge, J., Lane, T., 2005. Learning Class-Discriminative Dynamic Bayesian Networks. Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, Bonn, Germany, pp. 97-104.). The ACL score represents a class-discriminative measure of effective connectivity by measuring the relative likelihood of the correlation between brain regions in one group versus another. The algorithm is capable of finding non-linear relationships between brain regions because it uses discrete rather than continuous values and attempts to model temporal relationships with a first-order Markov and stationary assumption constraint (Papoulis, A., 1991. Probability, random variables, and stochastic processes. McGraw-Hill, New York.). Since Bayesian networks are overly sensitive to noisy data, we introduced an independent component analysis (ICA) filtering approach that attempted to reduce the noise found in fMRI data by unmixing the raw datasets into a set of independent spatial component maps. Components that represented noise were removed and the remaining components reconstructed into the dimensions of the original fMRI datasets. We applied the dDBN algorithm to a group of 35 patients with schizophrenia and 35 matched healthy controls using an ICA filtered and unfiltered approach. We determined that filtering the data significantly improved the magnitude of the ACL score. Patients showed the greatest ACL scores in several regions, most markedly the cerebellar vermis and hemispheres. Our findings suggest that schizophrenia patients exhibit weaker connectivity than healthy controls in multiple regions

  6. Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks and Monte Carlo Simulation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-07-01

    specific organization. Others have tried to solve this problem with technologies to quantify expertise, such as Bayesian belief networks [ Bibi 2004...planning, control, and operational management of the process‖ [ Bibi 2004]. The paper shows a generalized model usable for effort estimation. With...make it impossible to deploy them at an organizational level [Neil 1996, Bibi 2004, Ziv 1997, Wooff 2002]. A usable model should include only the

  7. Study on uncertainty of geospatial semantic Web services composition based on broker approach and Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xiaodong; Cui, Weihong; Liu, Zhen; Ouyang, Fucheng

    2008-10-01

    The Semantic Web has a major weakness which is lacking of a principled means to represent and reason about uncertainty. This is also located in the services composition approaches such as BPEL4WS and Semantic Description Model. We analyze the uncertainty of Geospatial Web Service composition through mining the knowledge in historical records of composition based on Broker approach and Bayesian Networks. We proved this approach is effective and efficient through a sample scenario in this paper.

  8. Combat Identification of Synthetic Aperture Radar Images Using Contextual Features and Bayesian Belief Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-03-01

    classifiers. 2.6.1 MCS Methods. Ruta and Gabrys [26] state there are three types of methods for classifier fusion. They differ by the type of...a probability for each class. The outputs, which range from 0 to 1, are also called possibility, necessity, belief or plausibility. Ruta and Gabrys ...and Gabrys [26]. The first one named Bayes Average is a simple average of posterior probabilities. The second method uses Bayesian Belief Network to

  9. Online variational Bayesian filtering-based mobile target tracking in wireless sensor networks.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

    2014-11-11

    The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying.

  10. Online Variational Bayesian Filtering-Based Mobile Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

    2014-01-01

    The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer–Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying. PMID:25393784

  11. Construction of monitoring model and algorithm design on passenger security during shipping based on improved Bayesian network.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jiali; Zhang, Qingnian; Ji, Wenfeng

    2014-01-01

    A large number of data is needed by the computation of the objective Bayesian network, but the data is hard to get in actual computation. The calculation method of Bayesian network was improved in this paper, and the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was obtained. Then, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was used to reason Bayesian network model when the data is limited. The security of passengers during shipping is affected by various factors, and it is hard to predict and control. The index system that has the impact on the passenger safety during shipping was established on basis of the multifield coupling theory in this paper. Meanwhile, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was applied to monitor the security of passengers in the shipping process. The model was applied to monitor the passenger safety during shipping of a shipping company in Hainan, and the effectiveness of this model was examined. This research work provides guidance for guaranteeing security of passengers during shipping.

  12. Construction of Monitoring Model and Algorithm Design on Passenger Security during Shipping Based on Improved Bayesian Network

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jiali; Zhang, Qingnian; Ji, Wenfeng

    2014-01-01

    A large number of data is needed by the computation of the objective Bayesian network, but the data is hard to get in actual computation. The calculation method of Bayesian network was improved in this paper, and the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was obtained. Then, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was used to reason Bayesian network model when the data is limited. The security of passengers during shipping is affected by various factors, and it is hard to predict and control. The index system that has the impact on the passenger safety during shipping was established on basis of the multifield coupling theory in this paper. Meanwhile, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was applied to monitor the security of passengers in the shipping process. The model was applied to monitor the passenger safety during shipping of a shipping company in Hainan, and the effectiveness of this model was examined. This research work provides guidance for guaranteeing security of passengers during shipping. PMID:25254227

  13. Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

    2016-06-01

    This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Urban land use extraction from Very High Resolution remote sensing imagery using a Bayesian network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Mengmeng; Stein, Alfred; Bijker, Wietske; Zhan, Qingming

    2016-12-01

    Urban land use extraction from Very High Resolution (VHR) remote sensing images is important in many applications. This study explores a novel way to characterize the spatial arrangement of land cover features, and to integrate it with commonly used land use indicators. Characterization is done based upon building objects, taking their functional properties into account. We categorize the objects to a set of building types according to their geometrical, morphological, and contextual attributes. The spatial arrangement is characterized by quantifying the distribution of building types within a land use unit. Moreover, a set of existing land use indicators primarily based upon the coverage ratio and density of land cover features is investigated. A Bayesian network integrates the spatial arrangement and land use indicators, by which the urban land use is inferred. We applied urban land use extraction to a Pléiades VHR image over the city of Wuhan, China. Our results showed that integrating the spatial arrangement significantly improved the accuracy of urban land use extraction as compared with using land use indicators alone. Moreover, the Bayesian network method produced results comparable to other commonly used classifiers. We concluded that the proposed characterization of spatial arrangement and Bayesian network integration was effective for urban land use extraction from VHR images.

  15. A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

  16. Bayesian GWAS and network analysis revealed new candidate genes for number of teats in pigs.

    PubMed

    Verardo, L L; Silva, F F; Varona, L; Resende, M D V; Bastiaansen, J W M; Lopes, P S; Guimarães, S E F

    2015-02-01

    The genetic improvement of reproductive traits such as the number of teats is essential to the success of the pig industry. As opposite to most SNP association studies that consider continuous phenotypes under Gaussian assumptions, this trait is characterized as a discrete variable, which could potentially follow other distributions, such as the Poisson. Therefore, in order to access the complexity of a counting random regression considering all SNPs simultaneously as covariate under a GWAS modeling, the Bayesian inference tools become necessary. Currently, another point that deserves to be highlighted in GWAS is the genetic dissection of complex phenotypes through candidate genes network derived from significant SNPs. We present a full Bayesian treatment of SNP association analysis for number of teats assuming alternatively Gaussian and Poisson distributions for this trait. Under this framework, significant SNP effects were identified by hypothesis tests using 95% highest posterior density intervals. These SNPs were used to construct associated candidate genes network aiming to explain the genetic mechanism behind this reproductive trait. The Bayesian model comparisons based on deviance posterior distribution indicated the superiority of Gaussian model. In general, our results suggest the presence of 19 significant SNPs, which mapped 13 genes. Besides, we predicted gene interactions through networks that are consistent with the mammals known breast biology (e.g., development of prolactin receptor signaling, and cell proliferation), captured known regulation binding sites, and provided candidate genes for that trait (e.g., TINAGL1 and ICK).

  17. Reconstruction of digit images from human brain fMRI activity through connectivity informed Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yargholi, Elahe'; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali

    2016-01-15

    Newly emerged developments in decoding of stimulus images from fMRI measurements have shown promising results. Decoding-classification has been the main concern of decoding studies, whereas the matter of reconstruction (decoding) of stimulus images from fMRI data, especially natural images, lacks adequate examination and it requires plenty of efforts to improve. The present study employs Bayesian networks for decoding-reconstruction which is a novel application of this tool. Moreover, as a novel approach, we exploit the brain connectivity information in decoding-reconstruction procedure through Bayesian networks. The proposed method was applied to reconstruct 100 images of digits 6 and 9 from the fMRI measurements obtained when showing some handwritten images of 6 and 9 to the subject. The information of only 10 brain voxels were exploited and an average (standard deviation) city-block distance error of 0.1071(0.0134) was obtained for all stimuli's reconstruction. In comparison with current common methods: The results reveal that Bayesian networks are successful in decoding-reconstruction of handwritten digits and inclusion of brain connectivity information makes them perform even more efficiently and improves decoding-reconstruction as well (reducing average error by almost 5%). In the task of decoding-reconstruction, the models including brain connectivity appear significantly superior to other existing models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Scaling Up the Accuracy of Bayesian Network Classifiers by M-Estimate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Liangxiao; Wang, Dianhong; Cai, Zhihua

    In learning Bayesian network classifiers, estimating probabilities from a given set of training examples is crucial. In many cases, we can estimate probabilities by the fraction of times the events is observed to occur over the total number of opportunities. However, when the training examples are not enough, this probability estimation method inevitably suffers from the zero-frequency problem. To avoid this practical problem, Laplace estimate is usually used to estimate probabilities. Just as we all know, m-estimate is another probability estimation method. Thus, a natural question is whether a Bayesian network classifier with m-estimate can perform even better. Responding to this question, we single out a special m-estimate method and empirically investigate its effect on various Bayesian network classifiers, such as Naive Bayes (NB), Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN), Averaged One-Dependence Estimators (AODE), and Hidden Naive Bayes (HNB). Our experiments show that the classifiers with our m-estimate perform better than the ones with Laplace estimate.

  19. Latent structure analysis in pharmaceutical formulations using Kohonen's self-organizing map and a Bayesian network.

    PubMed

    Kikuchi, Shingo; Onuki, Yoshinori; Yasuda, Akihito; Hayashi, Yoshihiro; Takayama, Kozo

    2011-03-01

    A latent structure analysis of pharmaceutical formulations was performed using Kohonen's self-organizing map (SOM) and a Bayesian network. A hydrophilic matrix tablet containing diltiazem hydrochloride (DTZ), a highly water-soluble model drug, was used as a model formulation. Nonlinear relationship correlations among formulation factors (oppositely charged dextran derivatives and hydroxypropyl methylcellulose), latent variables (turbidity and viscosity of the polymer mixtures and binding affinity of DTZ to polymers), and release properties [50% dissolution times (t50s) and similarity factor] were clearly visualized by self organizing feature maps. The quantities of dextran derivatives forming polyion complexes were strongly related to the binding affinity of DTZ to polymers and t50s. The latent variables were classified into five characteristic clusters with similar properties by SOM clustering. The probabilistic graphical model of the latent structure was successfully constructed using a Bayesian network. The causal relationships among the factors were quantitatively estimated by inferring conditional probability distributions. Moreover, these causal relationships estimated by the Bayesian network coincided well with estimations by SOM clustering, and the probabilistic graphical model was reflected in the characteristics of SOM clusters. These techniques provide a better understanding of the latent structure between formulation factors and responses in DTZ hydrophilic matrix tablet formulations.

  20. Models and simulation of 3D neuronal dendritic trees using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    López-Cruz, Pedro L; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier

    2011-12-01

    Neuron morphology is crucial for neuronal connectivity and brain information processing. Computational models are important tools for studying dendritic morphology and its role in brain function. We applied a class of probabilistic graphical models called Bayesian networks to generate virtual dendrites from layer III pyramidal neurons from three different regions of the neocortex of the mouse. A set of 41 morphological variables were measured from the 3D reconstructions of real dendrites and their probability distributions used in a machine learning algorithm to induce the model from the data. A simulation algorithm is also proposed to obtain new dendrites by sampling values from Bayesian networks. The main advantage of this approach is that it takes into account and automatically locates the relationships between variables in the data instead of using predefined dependencies. Therefore, the methodology can be applied to any neuronal class while at the same time exploiting class-specific properties. Also, a Bayesian network was defined for each part of the dendrite, allowing the relationships to change in the different sections and to model heterogeneous developmental factors or spatial influences. Several univariate statistical tests and a novel multivariate test based on Kullback-Leibler divergence estimation confirmed that virtual dendrites were similar to real ones. The analyses of the models showed relationships that conform to current neuroanatomical knowledge and support model correctness. At the same time, studying the relationships in the models can help to identify new interactions between variables related to dendritic morphology.

  1. Parameter estimation of brain tumors using intraoperative thermal imaging based on artificial tactile sensing in conjunction with artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadeghi-Goughari, M.; Mojra, A.; Sadeghi, S.

    2016-02-01

    Intraoperative Thermal Imaging (ITI) is a new minimally invasive diagnosis technique that can potentially locate margins of brain tumor in order to achieve maximum tumor resection with least morbidity. This study introduces a new approach to ITI based on artificial tactile sensing (ATS) technology in conjunction with artificial neural networks (ANN) and feasibility and applicability of this method in diagnosis and localization of brain tumors is investigated. In order to analyze validity and reliability of the proposed method, two simulations were performed. (i) An in vitro experimental setup was designed and fabricated using a resistance heater embedded in agar tissue phantom in order to simulate heat generation by a tumor in the brain tissue; and (ii) A case report patient with parafalcine meningioma was presented to simulate ITI in the neurosurgical procedure. In the case report, both brain and tumor geometries were constructed from MRI data and tumor temperature and depth of location were estimated. For experimental tests, a novel assisted surgery robot was developed to palpate the tissue phantom surface to measure temperature variations and ANN was trained to estimate the simulated tumor’s power and depth. Results affirm that ITI based ATS is a non-invasive method which can be useful to detect, localize and characterize brain tumors.

  2. Static and transient performance prediction for CFB boilers using a Bayesian-Gaussian Neural Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Haiwen; Ni, Weidou

    1997-06-01

    A Bayesian-Gaussian Neural Network (BGNN) is put forward in this paper to predict the static and transient performance of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) boilers. The advantages of this network over Back-Propagation Neural Networks (BPNNs), easier determination of topology, simpler and time saving in training process as well as self-organizing ability, make this network more practical in on-line performance prediction for complicated processes. Simulation shows that this network is comparable to the BPNNs in predicting the performance of CFB boilers. Good and practical on-line performance predictions are essential for operation guide and model predictive control of CFB boilers, which are under research by the authors.

  3. Joint Bayesian variable and graph selection for regression models with network-structured predictors.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Christine B; Stingo, Francesco C; Vannucci, Marina

    2016-03-30

    In this work, we develop a Bayesian approach to perform selection of predictors that are linked within a network. We achieve this by combining a sparse regression model relating the predictors to a response variable with a graphical model describing conditional dependencies among the predictors. The proposed method is well-suited for genomic applications because it allows the identification of pathways of functionally related genes or proteins that impact an outcome of interest. In contrast to previous approaches for network-guided variable selection, we infer the network among predictors using a Gaussian graphical model and do not assume that network information is available a priori. We demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in identifying network-structured predictors in simulation settings and illustrate our proposed model with an application to inference of proteins relevant to glioblastoma survival.

  4. Joint Bayesian variable and graph selection for regression models with network-structured predictors

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, C. B.; Stingo, F. C.; Vannucci, M.

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we develop a Bayesian approach to perform selection of predictors that are linked within a network. We achieve this by combining a sparse regression model relating the predictors to a response variable with a graphical model describing conditional dependencies among the predictors. The proposed method is well-suited for genomic applications since it allows the identification of pathways of functionally related genes or proteins which impact an outcome of interest. In contrast to previous approaches for network-guided variable selection, we infer the network among predictors using a Gaussian graphical model and do not assume that network information is available a priori. We demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in identifying network-structured predictors in simulation settings, and illustrate our proposed model with an application to inference of proteins relevant to glioblastoma survival. PMID:26514925

  5. Detecting ‘Wrong Blood in Tube’ Errors: Evaluation of a Bayesian Network Approach

    PubMed Central

    Doctor, Jason N.; Strylewicz, Greg

    2010-01-01

    Objective In an effort to address the problem of laboratory errors, we develop and evaluate a method to detect mismatched specimens from nationally collected blood laboratory data in two experiments. Methods In Experiment 1 and 2 using blood labs from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and values derived from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) respectively, a proportion of glucose and HbA1c specimens were randomly mismatched. A Bayesian network that encoded probabilistic relationships among analytes was used to predict mismatches. In Experiment 1 the performance of the network was compared against existing error detection software. In Experiment 2 the network was compared against 11 human experts recruited from the American Academy of Clinical Chemists. Results were compared via area under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUCs) and with agreement statistics. Results In Experiment 1 the network was most predictive of mismatches that produced clinically significant discrepancies between true and mismatched scores ((AUC of 0.87 (±0.04) for HbA1c and 0.83 (±0.02) for glucose), performed well in identifying errors among those self-reporting diabetes (N = 329) (AUC = 0.79 (± 0.02)) and performed significantly better than the established approach it was tested against (in all cases p < .0.05). In Experiment 2 it performed better (and in no case worse) than 7 of the 11 human experts. Average percent agreement was 0.79. and Kappa (κ) was 0.59, between experts and the Bayesian network. Conclusions Bayesian network can accurately identify mismatched specimens. The algorithm is best at identifying mismatches that result in a clinically significant magnitude of error. PMID:20566275

  6. Model averaging strategies for structure learning in Bayesian networks with limited data

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Considerable progress has been made on algorithms for learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data. Model averaging by using bootstrap replicates with feature selection by thresholding is a widely used solution for learning features with high confidence. Yet, in the context of limited data many questions remain unanswered. What scoring functions are most effective for model averaging? Does the bias arising from the discreteness of the bootstrap significantly affect learning performance? Is it better to pick the single best network or to average multiple networks learnt from each bootstrap resample? How should thresholds for learning statistically significant features be selected? Results The best scoring functions are Dirichlet Prior Scoring Metric with small λ and the Bayesian Dirichlet metric. Correcting the bias arising from the discreteness of the bootstrap worsens learning performance. It is better to pick the single best network learnt from each bootstrap resample. We describe a permutation based method for determining significance thresholds for feature selection in bagged models. We show that in contexts with limited data, Bayesian bagging using the Dirichlet Prior Scoring Metric (DPSM) is the most effective learning strategy, and that modifying the scoring function to penalize complex networks hampers model averaging. We establish these results using a systematic study of two well-known benchmarks, specifically ALARM and INSURANCE. We also apply our network construction method to gene expression data from the Cancer Genome Atlas Glioblastoma multiforme dataset and show that survival is related to clinical covariates age and gender and clusters for interferon induced genes and growth inhibition genes. Conclusions For small data sets, our approach performs significantly better than previously published methods. PMID:23320818

  7. Bayesian Mixed-Membership Models of Complex and Evolving Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-12-01

    in human dynamics. Nature, 435:207–211, 2005a. A. L. Barabasi. Network theory—the emergence of the creative enterprise. Science , 308:639–641, 2005b. A...Kidd, L. A. Zhivotovsky, and M. W. Feldman. Genetic structure of human populations. Science , 298:2381–2385, 2002. S. T. Roweis and L. K. Saul...Software Research Program in Computation, Organizations and Society School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University 5000 Forbes Avenue Pittsburgh

  8. Quantifying structural uncertainty on fault networks using a marked point process within a Bayesian framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aydin, Orhun; Caers, Jef Karel

    2017-08-01

    Faults are one of the building-blocks for subsurface modeling studies. Incomplete observations of subsurface fault networks lead to uncertainty pertaining to location, geometry and existence of faults. In practice, gaps in incomplete fault network observations are filled based on tectonic knowledge and interpreter's intuition pertaining to fault relationships. Modeling fault network uncertainty with realistic models that represent tectonic knowledge is still a challenge. Although methods that address specific sources of fault network uncertainty and complexities of fault modeling exists, a unifying framework is still lacking. In this paper, we propose a rigorous approach to quantify fault network uncertainty. Fault pattern and intensity information are expressed by means of a marked point process, marked Strauss point process. Fault network information is constrained to fault surface observations (complete or partial) within a Bayesian framework. A structural prior model is defined to quantitatively express fault patterns, geometries and relationships within the Bayesian framework. Structural relationships between faults, in particular fault abutting relations, are represented with a level-set based approach. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler is used to sample posterior fault network realizations that reflect tectonic knowledge and honor fault observations. We apply the methodology to a field study from Nankai Trough & Kumano Basin. The target for uncertainty quantification is a deep site with attenuated seismic data with only partially visible faults and many faults missing from the survey or interpretation. A structural prior model is built from shallow analog sites that are believed to have undergone similar tectonics compared to the site of study. Fault network uncertainty for the field is quantified with fault network realizations that are conditioned to structural rules, tectonic information and partially observed fault surfaces. We show the proposed

  9. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

  10. Investigating the Effects of Imputation Methods for Modelling Gene Networks Using a Dynamic Bayesian Network from Gene Expression Data

    PubMed Central

    CHAI, Lian En; LAW, Chow Kuan; MOHAMAD, Mohd Saberi; CHONG, Chuii Khim; CHOON, Yee Wen; DERIS, Safaai; ILLIAS, Rosli Md

    2014-01-01

    Background: Gene expression data often contain missing expression values. Therefore, several imputation methods have been applied to solve the missing values, which include k-nearest neighbour (kNN), local least squares (LLS), and Bayesian principal component analysis (BPCA). However, the effects of these imputation methods on the modelling of gene regulatory networks from gene expression data have rarely been investigated and analysed using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). Methods: In the present study, we separately imputed datasets of the Escherichia coli S.O.S. DNA repair pathway and the Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell cycle pathway with kNN, LLS, and BPCA, and subsequently used these to generate gene regulatory networks (GRNs) using a discrete DBN. We made comparisons on the basis of previous studies in order to select the gene network with the least error. Results: We found that BPCA and LLS performed better on larger networks (based on the S. cerevisiae dataset), whereas kNN performed better on smaller networks (based on the E. coli dataset). Conclusion: The results suggest that the performance of each imputation method is dependent on the size of the dataset, and this subsequently affects the modelling of the resultant GRNs using a DBN. In addition, on the basis of these results, a DBN has the capacity to discover potential edges, as well as display interactions, between genes. PMID:24876803

  11. Nonlinear inversion of electrical resistivity imaging using pruning Bayesian neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Fei-Bo; Dai, Qian-Wei; Dong, Li

    2016-06-01

    Conventional artificial neural networks used to solve electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) inversion problem suffer from overfitting and local minima. To solve these problems, we propose to use a pruning Bayesian neural network (PBNN) nonlinear inversion method and a sample design method based on the K-medoids clustering algorithm. In the sample design method, the training samples of the neural network are designed according to the prior information provided by the K-medoids clustering results; thus, the training process of the neural network is well guided. The proposed PBNN, based on Bayesian regularization, is used to select the hidden layer structure by assessing the effect of each hidden neuron to the inversion results. Then, the hyperparameter α k , which is based on the generalized mean, is chosen to guide the pruning process according to the prior distribution of the training samples under the small-sample condition. The proposed algorithm is more efficient than other common adaptive regularization methods in geophysics. The inversion of synthetic data and field data suggests that the proposed method suppresses the noise in the neural network training stage and enhances the generalization. The inversion results with the proposed method are better than those of the BPNN, RBFNN, and RRBFNN inversion methods as well as the conventional least squares inversion.

  12. A bayesian network for comparing dissolved nitrogen exports from high rainfall cropping in southeastern Australia.

    PubMed

    Nash, David; Hannah, Murray; Robertson, Fiona; Rifkin, Penny

    2010-01-01

    Best management practices are often used to mitigate nutrient exports from agricultural systems. The effectiveness of these measures can vary depending on the natural attributes of the land in question (e.g., soil type, slope, and drainage class). In this paper we use a Bayesian Network to combine experiential data (expert opinion) and experimental data to compare farm-scale management for different high-rainfall cropping farms in the Hamilton region of southern Australia. In the absence of appropriate data for calibration, the network was tested against various scenarios in a predictive and in a diagnostic way. In general, the network suggests that transport factors related to total surface water (i.e., surface and near surface interflow) runoff, which are largely unrelated to Site Variables, have the biggest effect on N exports. Source factors, especially those related to fertilizer applications at planting, also appear to be important. However, the effects of fertilizer depend on when runoff occurs, and, of the major factors under management control, only the Fertilizer Rate at Sowing had a notable effect. When used in a predictive capacity, the network suggests that, compared with other scenarios, high N loads are likely when fertilizer applications at sowing and runoff coincide. In this paper we have used a Bayesian Network to describe many of the dependencies between some of the major factors affecting N exports from high rainfall cropping. This relatively simple approach has been shown to be a useful tool for comparing management practices in data-poor environments.

  13. Experimental design and Bayesian networks for enhancement of delta-endotoxin production by Bacillus thuringiensis.

    PubMed

    Ennouri, Karim; Ayed, Rayda Ben; Hassen, Hanen Ben; Mazzarello, Maura; Ottaviani, Ennio

    2015-12-01

    Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is a Gram-positive bacterium. The entomopathogenic activity of Bt is related to the existence of the crystal consisting of protoxins, also called delta-endotoxins. In order to optimize and explain the production of delta-endotoxins of Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki, we studied seven medium components: soybean meal, starch, KH₂PO₄, K₂HPO₄, FeSO₄, MnSO₄, and MgSO₄and their relationships with the concentration of delta-endotoxins using an experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) and Bayesian networks modelling. The effects of the ingredients of the culture medium on delta-endotoxins production were estimated. The developed model showed that different medium components are important for the Bacillus thuringiensis fermentation. The most important factors influenced the production of delta-endotoxins are FeSO₄, K2HPO₄, starch and soybean meal. Indeed, it was found that soybean meal, K₂HPO₄, KH₂PO₄and starch also showed positive effect on the delta-endotoxins production. However, FeSO4 and MnSO4 expressed opposite effect. The developed model, based on Bayesian techniques, can automatically learn emerging models in data to serve in the prediction of delta-endotoxins concentrations. The constructed model in the present study implies that experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) joined with Bayesian networks method could be used for identification of effect variables on delta-endotoxins variation.

  14. Using mechanistic Bayesian networks to identify downstream targets of the sonic hedgehog pathway.

    PubMed

    Shah, Abhik; Tenzen, Toyoaki; McMahon, Andrew P; Woolf, Peter J

    2009-12-18

    The topology of a biological pathway provides clues as to how a pathway operates, but rationally using this topology information with observed gene expression data remains a challenge. We introduce a new general-purpose analytic method called Mechanistic Bayesian Networks (MBNs) that allows for the integration of gene expression data and known constraints within a signal or regulatory pathway to predict new downstream pathway targets. The MBN framework is implemented in an open-source Bayesian network learning package, the Python Environment for Bayesian Learning (PEBL). We demonstrate how MBNs can be used by modeling the early steps of the sonic hedgehog pathway using gene expression data from different developmental stages and genetic backgrounds in mouse. Using the MBN approach we are able to automatically identify many of the known downstream targets of the hedgehog pathway such as Gas1 and Gli1, along with a short list of likely targets such as Mig12. The MBN approach shown here can easily be extended to other pathways and data types to yield a more mechanistic framework for learning genetic regulatory models.

  15. Learning an L1-regularized Gaussian Bayesian network in the equivalence class space.

    PubMed

    Vidaurre, Diego; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2010-10-01

    Learning the structure of a graphical model from data is a common task in a wide range of practical applications. In this paper, we focus on Gaussian Bayesian networks, i.e., on continuous data and directed acyclic graphs with a joint probability density of all variables given by a Gaussian. We propose to work in an equivalence class search space, specifically using the k-greedy equivalence search algorithm. This, combined with regularization techniques to guide the structure search, can learn sparse networks close to the one that generated the data. We provide results on some synthetic networks and on modeling the gene network of the two biological pathways regulating the biosynthesis of isoprenoids for the Arabidopsis thaliana plant.

  16. Inference of Gene Regulatory Networks Using Bayesian Nonparametric Regression and Topology Information.

    PubMed

    Fan, Yue; Wang, Xiao; Peng, Qinke

    2017-01-01

    Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) play an important role in cellular systems and are important for understanding biological processes. Many algorithms have been developed to infer the GRNs. However, most algorithms only pay attention to the gene expression data but do not consider the topology information in their inference process, while incorporating this information can partially compensate for the lack of reliable expression data. Here we develop a Bayesian group lasso with spike and slab priors to perform gene selection and estimation for nonparametric models. B-spline basis functions are used to capture the nonlinear relationships flexibly and penalties are used to avoid overfitting. Further, we incorporate the topology information into the Bayesian method as a prior. We present the application of our method on DREAM3 and DREAM4 datasets and two real biological datasets. The results show that our method performs better than existing methods and the topology information prior can improve the result.

  17. A method for integrating expert knowledge when learning Bayesian networks from data.

    PubMed

    Cano, Andrés; Masegosa, Andrés R; Moral, Serafín

    2011-10-01

    Automatic learning of Bayesian networks from data is a challenging task, particularly when the data are scarce and the problem domain contains a high number of random variables. The introduction of expert knowledge is recognized as an excellent solution for reducing the inherent uncertainty of the models retrieved by automatic learning methods. Previous approaches to this problem based on Bayesian statistics introduce the expert knowledge by the elicitation of informative prior probability distributions of the graph structures. In this paper, we present a new methodology for integrating expert knowledge, based on Monte Carlo simulations and which avoids the costly elicitation of these prior distributions and only requests from the expert information about those direct probabilistic relationships between variables which cannot be reliably discerned with the help of the data.

  18. The Appeal to Expert Opinion: Quantitative Support for a Bayesian Network Approach.

    PubMed

    Harris, Adam J L; Hahn, Ulrike; Madsen, Jens K; Hsu, Anne S

    2016-08-01

    The appeal to expert opinion is an argument form that uses the verdict of an expert to support a position or hypothesis. A previous scheme-based treatment of the argument form is formalized within a Bayesian network that is able to capture the critical aspects of the argument form, including the central considerations of the expert's expertise and trustworthiness. We propose this as an appropriate normative framework for the argument form, enabling the development and testing of quantitative predictions as to how people evaluate this argument, suggesting that such an approach might be beneficial to argumentation research generally. We subsequently present two experiments as an example of the potential for future research in this vein, demonstrating that participants' quantitative ratings of the convincingness of a proposition that has been supported with an appeal to expert opinion were broadly consistent with the predictions of the Bayesian model.

  19. Inference of Gene Regulatory Networks Using Bayesian Nonparametric Regression and Topology Information

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) play an important role in cellular systems and are important for understanding biological processes. Many algorithms have been developed to infer the GRNs. However, most algorithms only pay attention to the gene expression data but do not consider the topology information in their inference process, while incorporating this information can partially compensate for the lack of reliable expression data. Here we develop a Bayesian group lasso with spike and slab priors to perform gene selection and estimation for nonparametric models. B-spline basis functions are used to capture the nonlinear relationships flexibly and penalties are used to avoid overfitting. Further, we incorporate the topology information into the Bayesian method as a prior. We present the application of our method on DREAM3 and DREAM4 datasets and two real biological datasets. The results show that our method performs better than existing methods and the topology information prior can improve the result. PMID:28133490

  20. Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Tegucigalpa, Honduras Using Artificial Neural Network, Bayesian Network and Decision Trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia Urquia, E. L.; Braun, A.; Yamagishi, H.

    2016-12-01

    Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras, experiences rainfall-induced landslides on a yearly basis. The high precipitation regime and the rugged topography the city has been built in couple with the lack of a proper urban expansion plan to contribute to the occurrence of landslides during the rainy season. Thousands of inhabitants live at risk of losing their belongings due to the construction of precarious shelters in landslide-prone areas on mountainous terrains and next to the riverbanks. Therefore, the city is in the need for landslide susceptibility and hazard maps to aid in the regulation of future development. Major challenges in the context of highly dynamic urbanizing areas are the overlap of natural and anthropogenic slope destabilizing factors, as well as the availability and accuracy of data. Data-driven multivariate techniques have proven to be powerful in discovering interrelations between factors, identifying important factors in large datasets, capturing non-linear problems and coping with noisy and incomplete data. This analysis focuses on the creation of a landslide susceptibility map using different methods from the field of data mining, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Bayesian Networks (BN) and Decision Trees (DT). The input dataset of the study contains geomorphological and hydrological factors derived from a digital elevation model with a 10 m resolution, lithological factors derived from a geological map, and anthropogenic factors, such as information on the development stage of the neighborhoods in Tegucigalpa and road density. Moreover, a landslide inventory map that was developed in 2014 through aerial photo interpretation was used as target variable in the analysis. The analysis covers an area of roughly 100 km2, while 8.95 km2 are occupied by landslides. In a first step, the dataset was explored by assessing and improving the data quality, identifying unimportant variables and finding interrelations. Then, based on a training

  1. Identifying causal networks linking cancer processes and anti-tumor immunity using Bayesian network inference and metagene constructs

    PubMed Central

    Kaiser, Jacob L.; Bland, Cassidy L.; Klinke, David J.

    2017-01-01

    Cancer arises from a deregulation of both intracellular and intercellular networks that maintain system homeostasis. Identifying the architecture of these networks and how they are changed in cancer is a pre-requisite for designing drugs to restore homeostasis. Since intercellular networks only appear in intact systems, it is difficult to identify how these networks become altered in human cancer using many of the common experimental models. To overcome this, we used the diversity in normal and malignant human tissue samples from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database of human breast cancer to identify the topology associated with intercellular networks in vivo. To improve the underlying biological signals, we constructed Bayesian networks using metagene constructs, which represented groups of genes that are concomitantly associated with different immune and cancer states. We also used bootstrap resampling to establish the significance associated with the inferred networks. In short, we found opposing relationships between cell proliferation and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transformation (EMT) with regards to macrophage polarization. These results were consistent across multiple carcinomas in that proliferation was associated with a type 1 cell-mediated anti-tumor immune response and EMT was associated with a pro-tumor anti-inflammatory response. To address the identifiability of these networks from other datasets, we could identify the relationship between EMT and macrophage polarization with fewer samples when the Bayesian network was generated from malignant samples alone. However, the relationship between proliferation and macrophage polarization was identified with fewer samples when the samples were taken from a combination of the normal and malignant samples. PMID:26785356

  2. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R2 = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.

  3. Binary tissue classification on wound images with neural networks and bayesian classifiers.

    PubMed

    Veredas, Francisco; Mesa, Héctor; Morente, Laura

    2010-02-01

    A pressure ulcer is a clinical pathology of localized damage to the skin and underlying tissue caused by pressure, shear, or friction. Diagnosis, treatment, and care of pressure ulcers are costly for health services. Accurate wound evaluation is a critical task for optimizing the efficacy of treatment and care. Clinicians usually evaluate each pressure ulcer by visual inspection of the damaged tissues, which is an imprecise manner of assessing the wound state. Current computer vision approaches do not offer a global solution to this particular problem. In this paper, a hybrid approach based on neural networks and Bayesian classifiers is used in the design of a computational system for automatic tissue identification in wound images. A mean shift procedure and a region-growing strategy are implemented for effective region segmentation. Color and texture features are extracted from these segmented regions. A set of k multilayer perceptrons is trained with inputs consisting of color and texture patterns, and outputs consisting of categorical tissue classes which are determined by clinical experts. This training procedure is driven by a k-fold cross-validation method. Finally, a Bayesian committee machine is formed by training a Bayesian classifier to combine the classifications of the k neural networks. Specific heuristics based on the wound topology are designed to significantly improve the results of the classification. We obtain high efficiency rates from a binary cascade approach for tissue identification. Results are compared with other similar machine-learning approaches, including multiclass Bayesian committee machine classifiers and support vector machines. The different techniques analyzed in this paper show high global classification accuracy rates. Our binary cascade approach gives high global performance rates (average sensitivity =78.7% , specificity =94.7% , and accuracy =91.5% ) and shows the highest average sensitivity score ( =86.3%) when detecting

  4. Detecting Asthma Exacerbations in a Pediatric Emergency Department Using a Bayesian Network

    PubMed Central

    Sanders, David L; Aronsky, Dominik

    2006-01-01

    Objective To develop and evaluate a Bayesian network to identify patients eligible for an asthma-care guideline using only data available electronically at the time of patient triage. Population Consecutive patients 2–18 years old who presented to a pediatric emergency department during a 2-month period. Methods A network was developed and evaluated using clinical data from patient visits. An independent reference standard for asthma guideline eligibility was established and verified for each patient through chart review. Outcome measures were area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios. Results We enrolled 3,023 patient visits, including 385 who were eligible for guideline-based care. Area under the receiver operating curve for the network was 0.959 (95% CI = 0.933 – 0.977). At a fixed 90% sensitivity, specificity was 88.3%, positive predictive value was 44.7% and negative predictive value was 98.8%. The positive likelihood ratio was 7.69 and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.11. Conclusion The Bayesian network was able to detect patients eligible for an asthma guideline with high accuracy suggesting that this technique could be used to automatically initiate guideline use for eligible patients. PMID:17238428

  5. Learning Discriminative Bayesian Networks from High-Dimensional Continuous Neuroimaging Data.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Luping; Wang, Lei; Liu, Lingqiao; Ogunbona, Philip; Shen, Dinggang

    2016-11-01

    Due to its causal semantics, Bayesian networks (BN) have been widely employed to discover the underlying data relationship in exploratory studies, such as brain research. Despite its success in modeling the probability distribution of variables, BN is naturally a generative model, which is not necessarily discriminative. This may cause the ignorance of subtle but critical network changes that are of investigation values across populations. In this paper, we propose to improve the discriminative power of BN models for continuous variables from two different perspectives. This brings two general discriminative learning frameworks for Gaussian Bayesian networks (GBN). In the first framework, we employ Fisher kernel to bridge the generative models of GBN and the discriminative classifiers of SVMs, and convert the GBN parameter learning to Fisher kernel learning via minimizing a generalization error bound of SVMs. In the second framework, we employ the max-margin criterion and build it directly upon GBN models to explicitly optimize the classification performance of the GBNs. The advantages and disadvantages of the two frameworks are discussed and experimentally compared. Both of them demonstrate strong power in learning discriminative parameters of GBNs for neuroimaging based brain network analysis, as well as maintaining reasonable representation capacity. The contributions of this paper also include a new Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) constraint with theoretical guarantee to ensure the graph validity of GBN.

  6. Learning Discriminative Bayesian Networks from High-dimensional Continuous Neuroimaging Data.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Luping; Wang, Lei; Liu, Lingqiao; Ogunbona, Philip; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-12-23

    Due to its causal semantics, Bayesian networks (BN) have been widely employed to discover the underlying data relationship in exploratory studies, such as brain research. Despite its success in modeling the probability distribution of variables, BN is naturally a generative model, which is not necessarily discriminative. This may cause the ignorance of subtle but critical network changes that are of investigation values across populations. In this paper, we propose to improve the discriminative power of BN models for continuous variables from two different perspectives. This brings two general discriminative learning frameworks for Gaussian Bayesian networks (GBN). In the first framework, we employ Fisher kernel to bridge the generative models of GBN and the discriminative classifiers of SVMs, and convert the GBN parameter learning to Fisher kernel learning via minimizing a generalization error bound of SVMs. In the second framework, we employ the max-margin criterion and build it directly upon GBN models to explicitly optimize the classification performance of the GBNs. The advantages and disadvantages of the two frameworks are discussed and experimentally compared. Both of them demonstrate strong power in learning discriminative parameters of GBNs for neuroimaging based brain network analysis, as well as maintaining reasonable representation capacity. The contributions of this paper also include a new Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) constraint with theoretical guarantee to ensure the graph validity of GBN.

  7. Bayesian network reconstruction using systems genetics data: comparison of MCMC methods.

    PubMed

    Tasaki, Shinya; Sauerwine, Ben; Hoff, Bruce; Toyoshiba, Hiroyoshi; Gaiteri, Chris; Chaibub Neto, Elias

    2015-04-01

    Reconstructing biological networks using high-throughput technologies has the potential to produce condition-specific interactomes. But are these reconstructed networks a reliable source of biological interactions? Do some network inference methods offer dramatically improved performance on certain types of networks? To facilitate the use of network inference methods in systems biology, we report a large-scale simulation study comparing the ability of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers to reverse engineer Bayesian networks. The MCMC samplers we investigated included foundational and state-of-the-art Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs sampling approaches, as well as novel samplers we have designed. To enable a comprehensive comparison, we simulated gene expression and genetics data from known network structures under a range of biologically plausible scenarios. We examine the overall quality of network inference via different methods, as well as how their performance is affected by network characteristics. Our simulations reveal that network size, edge density, and strength of gene-to-gene signaling are major parameters that differentiate the performance of various samplers. Specifically, more recent samplers including our novel methods outperform traditional samplers for highly interconnected large networks with strong gene-to-gene signaling. Our newly developed samplers show comparable or superior performance to the top existing methods. Moreover, this performance gain is strongest in networks with biologically oriented topology, which indicates that our novel samplers are suitable for inferring biological networks. The performance of MCMC samplers in this simulation framework can guide the choice of methods for network reconstruction using systems genetics data.

  8. Analysis of molecular expression patterns and integration with other knowledge bases using probabilistic Bayesian network models

    SciTech Connect

    Moler, Edward J.; Mian, I.S.

    2000-03-01

    How can molecular expression experiments be interpreted with greater than ten to the fourth measurements per chip? How can one get the most quantitative information possible from the experimental data with good confidence? These are important questions whose solutions require an interdisciplinary combination of molecular and cellular biology, computer science, statistics, and complex systems analysis. The explosion of data from microarray techniques present the problem of interpreting the experiments. The availability of large-scale knowledge bases provide the opportunity to maximize the information extracted from these experiments. We have developed new methods of discovering biological function, metabolic pathways, and regulatory networks from these data and knowledge bases. These techniques are applicable to analyses for biomedical engineering, clinical, and fundamental cell and molecular biology studies. Our approach uses probabilistic, computational methods that give quantitative interpretations of data in a biological context. We have selected Bayesian statistical models with graphical network representations as a framework for our methods. As a first step, we use a nave Bayesian classifier to identify statistically significant patterns in gene expression data. We have developed methods which allow us to (a) characterize which genes or experiments distinguish each class from the others, (b) cross-index the resulting classes with other databases to assess biological meaning of the classes, and (c) display a gross overview of cellular dynamics. We have developed a number of visualization tools to convey the results. We report here our methods of classification and our first attempts at integrating the data and other knowledge bases together with new visualization tools. We demonstrate the utility of these methods and tools by analysis of a series of yeast cDNA microarray data and to a set of cancerous/normal sample data from colon cancer patients. We discuss

  9. Using Object Oriented Bayesian Networks to Model Linkage, Linkage Disequilibrium and Mutations between STR Markers

    PubMed Central

    Kling, Daniel; Egeland, Thore; Mostad, Petter

    2012-01-01

    In a number of applications there is a need to determine the most likely pedigree for a group of persons based on genetic markers. Adequate models are needed to reach this goal. The markers used to perform the statistical calculations can be linked and there may also be linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the population. The purpose of this paper is to present a graphical Bayesian Network framework to deal with such data. Potential LD is normally ignored and it is important to verify that the resulting calculations are not biased. Even if linkage does not influence results for regular paternity cases, it may have substantial impact on likelihood ratios involving other, more extended pedigrees. Models for LD influence likelihoods for all pedigrees to some degree and an initial estimate of the impact of ignoring LD and/or linkage is desirable, going beyond mere rules of thumb based on marker distance. Furthermore, we show how one can readily include a mutation model in the Bayesian Network; extending other programs or formulas to include such models may require considerable amounts of work and will in many case not be practical. As an example, we consider the two STR markers vWa and D12S391. We estimate probabilities for population haplotypes to account for LD using a method based on data from trios, while an estimate for the degree of linkage is taken from the literature. The results show that accounting for haplotype frequencies is unnecessary in most cases for this specific pair of markers. When doing calculations on regular paternity cases, the markers can be considered statistically independent. In more complex cases of disputed relatedness, for instance cases involving siblings or so-called deficient cases, or when small differences in the LR matter, independence should not be assumed. (The networks are freely available at http://arken.umb.no/~dakl/BayesianNetworks.) PMID:22984448

  10. Development of a combined GIS, neural network and Bayesian classifier methodology for classifying remotely sensed data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Claudio Albert

    This research is aimed at the solution of two common but still largely unsolved problems in the classification of remotely sensed data: (1) Classification accuracy of remotely sensed data decreases significantly in mountainous terrain, where topography strongly influences the spectral response of the features on the ground; and (2) when attempting to obtain more detailed classifications, e.g. forest cover types or species, rather than just broad categories of forest such as coniferous or deciduous, the accuracy of the classification generally decreases significantly. The main objective of the study was to develop a widely applicable and efficient classification procedure for mapping forest and other cover types in mountainous terrain, using an integrated GIS/neural network/Bayesian classification approach. The performance of this new technique was compared to a standard supervised Maximum Likelihood classification technique, a "conventional" Bayesian/Maximum Likelihood classification, and to a "conventional" neural network classifier. Results indicate a considerable improvement of the new technique over the standard Maximum Likelihood classification technique, as well as a better accuracy than the "conventional" Bayesian/Maximum Likelihood classifier (13.08 percent improvement in overall accuracy), but the "conventional" neural network classifiers outperformed all the techniques compared in this study, with an overall accuracy improvement of 15.94 percent as compared to the standard Maximum Likelihood classifier (from 46.77 percent to 62.71 percent). However, the overall accuracies of all the classification techniques compared in this study were relative low. It is believed that this was caused by problems related to the inadequacy of the reference data. On the other hand, the results also indicate the need to develop a different sampling design to more effectively cover the variability across all the parameters needed by the neural network classification technique

  11. Using Stochastic Causal Trees to Augment Bayesian Networks for Modeling eQTL Datasets

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The combination of genotypic and genome-wide expression data arising from segregating populations offers an unprecedented opportunity to model and dissect complex phenotypes. The immense potential offered by these data derives from the fact that genotypic variation is the sole source of perturbation and can therefore be used to reconcile changes in gene expression programs with the parental genotypes. To date, several methodologies have been developed for modeling eQTL data. These methods generally leverage genotypic data to resolve causal relationships among gene pairs implicated as associates in the expression data. In particular, leading studies have augmented Bayesian networks with genotypic data, providing a powerful framework for learning and modeling causal relationships. While these initial efforts have provided promising results, one major drawback associated with these methods is that they are generally limited to resolving causal orderings for transcripts most proximal to the genomic loci. In this manuscript, we present a probabilistic method capable of learning the causal relationships between transcripts at all levels in the network. We use the information provided by our method as a prior for Bayesian network structure learning, resulting in enhanced performance for gene network reconstruction. Results Using established protocols to synthesize eQTL networks and corresponding data, we show that our method achieves improved performance over existing leading methods. For the goal of gene network reconstruction, our method achieves improvements in recall ranging from 20% to 90% across a broad range of precision levels and for datasets of varying sample sizes. Additionally, we show that the learned networks can be utilized for expression quantitative trait loci mapping, resulting in upwards of 10-fold increases in recall over traditional univariate mapping. Conclusions Using the information from our method as a prior for Bayesian network

  12. Bayesian WLS/GLS regression for regional skewness analysis for regions with large crest stage gage networks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Veilleux, Andrea G.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Eash, David A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper summarizes methodological advances in regional log-space skewness analyses that support flood-frequency analysis with the log Pearson Type III (LP3) distribution. A Bayesian Weighted Least Squares/Generalized Least Squares (B-WLS/B-GLS) methodology that relates observed skewness coefficient estimators to basin characteristics in conjunction with diagnostic statistics represents an extension of the previously developed B-GLS methodology. B-WLS/B-GLS has been shown to be effective in two California studies. B-WLS/B-GLS uses B-WLS to generate stable estimators of model parameters and B-GLS to estimate the precision of those B-WLS regression parameters, as well as the precision of the model. The study described here employs this methodology to develop a regional skewness model for the State of Iowa. To provide cost effective peak-flow data for smaller drainage basins in Iowa, the U.S. Geological Survey operates a large network of crest stage gages (CSGs) that only record flow values above an identified recording threshold (thus producing a censored data record). CSGs are different from continuous-record gages, which record almost all flow values and have been used in previous B-GLS and B-WLS/B-GLS regional skewness studies. The complexity of analyzing a large CSG network is addressed by using the B-WLS/B-GLS framework along with the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA). Because EMA allows for the censoring of low outliers, as well as the use of estimated interval discharges for missing, censored, and historic data, it complicates the calculations of effective record length (and effective concurrent record length) used to describe the precision of sample estimators because the peak discharges are no longer solely represented by single values. Thus new record length calculations were developed. The regional skewness analysis for the State of Iowa illustrates the value of the new B-WLS/BGLS methodology with these new extensions.

  13. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  14. Object-oriented Bayesian networks for paternity cases with allelic dependencies

    PubMed Central

    Hepler, Amanda B.; Weir, Bruce S.

    2008-01-01

    This study extends the current use of Bayesian networks by incorporating the effects of allelic dependencies in paternity calculations. The use of object-oriented networks greatly simplify the process of building and interpreting forensic identification models, allowing researchers to solve new, more complex problems. We explore two paternity examples: the most common scenario where DNA evidence is available from the alleged father, the mother and the child; a more complex casewhere DNA is not available from the alleged father, but is available from the alleged father’s brother. Object-oriented networks are built, using HUGIN, for each example which incorporate the effects of allelic dependence caused by evolutionary relatedness. PMID:19079769

  15. Discovering complex interrelationships between socioeconomic status and health in Europe: A case study applying Bayesian Networks.

    PubMed

    Alvarez-Galvez, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Studies assume that socioeconomic status determines individuals' states of health, but how does health determine socioeconomic status? And how does this association vary depending on contextual differences? To answer this question, our study uses an additive Bayesian Networks model to explain the interrelationships between health and socioeconomic determinants using complex and messy data. This model has been used to find the most probable structure in a network to describe the interdependence of these factors in five European welfare state regimes. The advantage of this study is that it offers a specific picture to describe the complex interrelationship between socioeconomic determinants and health, producing a network that is controlled by socio-demographic factors such as gender and age. The present work provides a general framework to describe and understand the complex association between socioeconomic determinants and health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. A Bayesian Framework for Combining Protein and Network Topology Information for Predicting Protein-Protein Interactions.

    PubMed

    Birlutiu, Adriana; d'Alché-Buc, Florence; Heskes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Computational methods for predicting protein-protein interactions are important tools that can complement high-throughput technologies and guide biologists in designing new laboratory experiments. The proteins and the interactions between them can be described by a network which is characterized by several topological properties. Information about proteins and interactions between them, in combination with knowledge about topological properties of the network, can be used for developing computational methods that can accurately predict unknown protein-protein interactions. This paper presents a supervised learning framework based on Bayesian inference for combining two types of information: i) network topology information, and ii) information related to proteins and the interactions between them. The motivation of our model is that by combining these two types of information one can achieve a better accuracy in predicting protein-protein interactions, than by using models constructed from these two types of information independently.

  17. Constructing a Bayesian network model for improving safety behavior of employees at workplaces.

    PubMed

    Mohammadfam, Iraj; Ghasemi, Fakhradin; Kalatpour, Omid; Moghimbeigi, Abbas

    2017-01-01

    Unsafe behavior increases the risk of accident at workplaces and needs to be managed properly. The aim of the present study was to provide a model for managing and improving safety behavior of employees using the Bayesian networks approach. The study was conducted in several power plant construction projects in Iran. The data were collected using a questionnaire composed of nine factors, including management commitment, supporting environment, safety management system, employees' participation, safety knowledge, safety attitude, motivation, resource allocation, and work pressure. In order for measuring the score of each factor assigned by a responder, a measurement model was constructed for each of them. The Bayesian network was constructed using experts' opinions and Dempster-Shafer theory. Using belief updating, the best intervention strategies for improving safety behavior also were selected. The result of the present study demonstrated that the majority of employees do not tend to consider safety rules, regulation, procedures and norms in their behavior at the workplace. Safety attitude, safety knowledge, and supporting environment were the best predictor of safety behavior. Moreover, it was determined that instantaneous improvement of supporting environment and employee participation is the best strategy to reach a high proportion of safety behavior at the workplace. The lack of a comprehensive model that can be used for explaining safety behavior was one of the most problematic issues of the study. Furthermore, it can be concluded that belief updating is a unique feature of Bayesian networks that is very useful in comparing various intervention strategies and selecting the best one form them. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Utility of Bayesian networks in QMRA-based evaluation of risk reduction options for recycled water.

    PubMed

    Beaudequin, Denise; Harden, Fiona; Roiko, Anne; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2016-01-15

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), the current method of choice for evaluating human health risks associated with disease-causing microorganisms, is often constrained by issues such as availability of required data, and inability to incorporate the multitude of factors influencing risk. Bayesian networks (BNs), with their ability to handle data paucity, combine quantitative and qualitative information including expert opinions, and ability to offer a systems approach to characterisation of complexity, are increasingly recognised as a powerful, flexible tool that overcomes these limitations. We present a QMRA expressed as a Bayesian network (BN) in a wastewater reuse context, with the objective of demonstrating the utility of the BN method in health risk assessments, particularly for evaluating a range of exposure and risk mitigation scenarios. As a case study, we examine the risk of norovirus infection associated with wastewater-irrigated lettuce. A Bayesian network was developed following a QMRA approach, using published data, and reviewed by domain experts using a participatory process. Employment of a BN facilitated rapid scenario evaluations, risk minimisation, and predictive comparisons. The BN supported exploration of conditions required for optimal outcomes, as well as investigation of the effect on the reporting nodes of changes in 'upstream' conditions. A significant finding was the indication that if maximum post-treatment risk mitigation measures were implemented, there was a high probability (0.84) of a low risk of infection regardless of fluctuations in other variables, including norovirus concentration in treated wastewater. BNs are useful in situations where insufficient empirical data exist to satisfy QMRA requirements and they are exceptionally suited to the integration of risk assessment and risk management in the QMRA context. They allow a comprehensive visual appraisal of major influences in exposure pathways, and rapid interactive

  19. Predicting Football Matches Results using Bayesian Networks for English Premier League (EPL)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razali, Nazim; Mustapha, Aida; Yatim, Faiz Ahmad; Aziz, Ruhaya Ab

    2017-08-01

    The issues of modeling asscoiation football prediction model has become increasingly popular in the last few years and many different approaches of prediction models have been proposed with the point of evaluating the attributes that lead a football team to lose, draw or win the match. There are three types of approaches has been considered for predicting football matches results which include statistical approaches, machine learning approaches and Bayesian approaches. Lately, many studies regarding football prediction models has been produced using Bayesian approaches. This paper proposes a Bayesian Networks (BNs) to predict the results of football matches in term of home win (H), away win (A) and draw (D). The English Premier League (EPL) for three seasons of 2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 has been selected and reviewed. K-fold cross validation has been used for testing the accuracy of prediction model. The required information about the football data is sourced from a legitimate site at http://www.football-data.co.uk. BNs achieved predictive accuracy of 75.09% in average across three seasons. It is hoped that the results could be used as the benchmark output for future research in predicting football matches results.

  20. Forensic Signature Detection of Yersinia Pestis Culturing Practices Across Institutions Using a Bayesian Network

    SciTech Connect

    Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Corley, Courtney D.; McCue, Lee Ann; Clowers, Brian H.; Dowling, Chase P.; Wahl, Karen L.; Wunschel, David S.; Kreuzer, Helen W.

    2014-03-21

    The field of bioforensics is focused on the analysis of evidence from a biocrime. Existing laboratory analyses can identify the specific strain of an organism in the evidence, as well signatures of the specific culture batch of organisms, such as low-frequency contaminants or indicators of growth and processing methods. To link these disparate types of physical data to potential suspects, investigators may need to identify institutions or individuals whose access to strains and culturing practices match those identified from the evidence. In this work we present a Bayesian statistical network to fuse different types of analytical measurements that predict the production environment of a Yersinia pestis sample under investigation with automated test processing of scientific publications to identify institutions with a history of growing Y. pestis under similar conditions. Furthermore, the textual and experimental signatures were evaluated recursively to determine the overall sensitivity of the network across all levels of false positives. We illustrate that institutions associated with several specific culturing practices can be accurately selected based on the experimental signature from only a few analytical measurements. These findings demonstrate that similar Bayesian networks can be generated generically for many organisms of interest and their deployment is not prohibitive due to either computational or experimental factors.

  1. Assessment of catastrophic risk using Bayesian network constructed from domain knowledge and spatial data.

    PubMed

    Li, Lianfa; Wang, Jinfeng; Leung, Hareton; Jiang, Chengsheng

    2010-07-01

    Prediction of natural disasters and their consequences is difficult due to the uncertainties and complexity of multiple related factors. This article explores the use of domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for assessment of catastrophic risk. A BN is chosen due to its advantages such as merging multiple source data and domain knowledge in a consistent system, learning from the data set, inference with missing data, and support of decision making. A key advantage of our methodology is the combination of domain knowledge and learning from the data to construct a robust network. To improve the assessment, we employ spatial data analysis and data mining to extend the training data set, select risk factors, and fine-tune the network. Another major advantage of our methodology is the integration of an optimal discretizer, informative feature selector, learners, search strategies for local topologies, and Bayesian model averaging. These techniques all contribute to a robust prediction of risk probability of natural disasters. In the flood disaster's study, our methodology achieved a better probability of detection of high risk, a better precision, and a better ROC area compared with other methods, using both cross-validation and prediction of catastrophic risk based on historic data. Our results suggest that BN is a good alternative for risk assessment and as a decision tool in the management of catastrophic risk.

  2. A Sparse Structure Learning Algorithm for Gaussian Bayesian Network Identification from High-Dimensional Data

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Shuai; Li, Jing; Ye, Jieping; Fleisher, Adam; Chen, Kewei; Wu, Teresa; Reiman, Eric

    2014-01-01

    Structure learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is an important topic in machine learning. Driven by modern applications in genetics and brain sciences, accurate and efficient learning of large-scale BN structures from high-dimensional data becomes a challenging problem. To tackle this challenge, we propose a Sparse Bayesian Network (SBN) structure learning algorithm that employs a novel formulation involving one L1-norm penalty term to impose sparsity and another penalty term to ensure that the learned BN is a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG)—a required property of BNs. Through both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on 11 moderate and large benchmark networks with various sample sizes, we show that SBN leads to improved learning accuracy, scalability, and efficiency as compared with 10 existing popular BN learning algorithms. We apply SBN to a real-world application of brain connectivity modeling for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and reveal findings that could lead to advancements in AD research. PMID:22665720

  3. Prediction of HLA-A2 binding peptides using Bayesian network.

    PubMed

    Astakhov, Vadim; Cherkasov, Artem

    2005-10-11

    Prediction of peptides binding to HLA (human leukocyte antigen) finds application in peptide vaccine design. A number of statistical and structural models have been developed in recent years for HLA binding peptide prediction. However, a Bayesian Network (BNT) model is not available. In this study we describe a BNT model for HLA-A2 binding peptide prediction. It has been demonstrated that the BNT model allows up to 99 % accurate identification of the HLA-A2 binding peptides and provides similar prediction accuracy compared to HMM (Hidden Markov Model) and ANN (Artificial Neural Network). At the same time, it has been shown that the BNT has that advantage that it allows more accurate performance for smaller sets of empirical data compared to the HMM and the ANN methods. When the size of the training set has been reduced to 40% from the original data, the identification of the HLA-A2 binding peptides by the BNT, ANN and HMM methods produced ARoc (area under receiver operating characteristic) values 0.88, 0.85, 0.85 respectively. The results of the work demonstrate certain advantages of using the Bayesian Networks in predicting the HLA binding peptides using smaller datasets.

  4. Prediction of HLA-A2 binding peptides using Bayesian network

    PubMed Central

    Astakhov, Vadim; Cherkasov, Artem

    2005-01-01

    Prediction of peptides binding to HLA (human leukocyte antigen) finds application in peptide vaccine design. A number of statistical and structural models have been developed in recent years for HLA binding peptide prediction. However, a Bayesian Network (BNT) model is not available. In this study we describe a BNT model for HLA-A2 binding peptide prediction. It has been demonstrated that the BNT model allows up to 99 % accurate identification of the HLA-A2 binding peptides and provides similar prediction accuracy compared to HMM (Hidden Markov Model) and ANN (Artificial Neural Network). At the same time, it has been shown that the BNT has that advantage that it allows more accurate performance for smaller sets of empirical data compared to the HMM and the ANN methods. When the size of the training set has been reduced to 40% from the original data, the identification of the HLA-A2 binding peptides by the BNT, ANN and HMM methods produced ARoc (area under receiver operating characteristic) values 0.88, 0.85, 0.85 respectively. The results of the work demonstrate certain advantages of using the Bayesian Networks in predicting the HLA binding peptides using smaller datasets. PMID:17597855

  5. Object-oriented Bayesian networks for complex forensic DNA profiling problems.

    PubMed

    Dawid, A P; Mortera, J; Vicard, P

    2007-07-04

    We describe a flexible computational toolkit, based on object-oriented Bayesian networks, that can be used to model and solve a wide variety of complex problems of relationship testing using DNA profiles. In particular this can account for such complicating features as missing individuals, mutation and null alleles. We illustrate the use of this toolkit with several examples, including disputed paternity with missing or additional measurements, and criminal identification. We investigate the effects on likelihood ratios of introducing mutation and/or null alleles, and show that this can be substantial even when the underlying perturbations are small.

  6. Spatial component analysis of MRI data for Alzheimer's disease diagnosis: a Bayesian network approach

    PubMed Central

    Illan, Ignacio A.; Górriz, Juan M.; Ramírez, Javier; Meyer-Base, Anke

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a spatial-component (SC) based approach to aid the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) using magnetic resonance images. In this approach, the whole brain image is subdivided in regions or spatial components, and a Bayesian network is used to model the dependencies between affected regions of AD. The structure of relations between affected regions allows to detect neurodegeneration with an estimated performance of 88% on more than 400 subjects and predict neurodegeneration with 80% accuracy, supporting the conclusion that modeling the dependencies between components increases the recognition of different patterns of brain degeneration in AD. PMID:25505408

  7. Motif-Based Classification of Time Series with Bayesian Networks and SVMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buza, Krisztian; Schmidt-Thieme, Lars

    Classification of time series is an important task with many challenging applications like brain wave (EEG) analysis, signature verification or speech recognition. In this paper we show how characteristic local patterns (motifs) can improve the classification accuracy. We introduce a new motif class, generalized semi-continuous motifs. To allow flexibility and noise robustness, these motifs may include gaps of various lengths, generic and more specific wildcards. We propose an efficient algorithm for mining generalized sequential motifs. In experiments on real medical data, we show how generalized semi-continuous motifs improve the accuracy of SVMs and Bayesian Networks for time series classification.

  8. Spectrum Identification using a Dynamic Bayesian Network Model of Tandem Mass Spectra

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Ajit P.; Halloran, John; Bilmes, Jeff A.; Kirchoff, Katrin; Noble, William S.

    2013-01-01

    Shotgun proteomics is a high-throughput technology used to identify unknown proteins in a complex mixture. At the heart of this process is a prediction task, the spectrum identification problem, in which each fragmentation spectrum produced by a shotgun proteomics experiment must be mapped to the peptide (protein subsequence) which generated the spectrum. We propose a new algorithm for spectrum identification, based on dynamic Bayesian networks, which significantly out-performs the de-facto standard tools for this task: SEQUEST and Mascot. PMID:25383048

  9. Reinforced concrete corrosion: Application of Bayesian networks to the risk management of a cooling tower

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capra, B.; Le Drogo, J.; Wolff, V.

    2006-11-01

    Degradation modelling of concrete structures uses uncertain variables and leads, using reliability assessment, to time dependant evolution of failure probabilities. However, only few data are generally available to feed models leading to two types of uncertainties: an intrinsic one depending on the modelled phenomena and one related to the precision of the measurement. Each new data available is a piece of information which allows to update the initial prediction. In this article, an example of updating process, based on a Bayesian network, is presented and applied on the corrosion risk of a cooling tower.

  10. Context Relevant Prediction Model for COPD Domain Using Bayesian Belief Network

    PubMed Central

    Saleh, Lokman; Ajami, Hicham; Mili, Hafedh

    2017-01-01

    In the last three decades, researchers have examined extensively how context-aware systems can assist people, specifically those suffering from incurable diseases, to help them cope with their medical illness. Over the years, a huge number of studies on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) have been published. However, how to derive relevant attributes and early detection of COPD exacerbations remains a challenge. In this research work, we will use an efficient algorithm to select relevant attributes where there is no proper approach in this domain. Such algorithm predicts exacerbations with high accuracy by adding discretization process, and organizes the pertinent attributes in priority order based on their impact to facilitate the emergency medical treatment. In this paper, we propose an extension of our existing Helper Context-Aware Engine System (HCES) for COPD. This project uses Bayesian network algorithm to depict the dependency between the COPD symptoms (attributes) in order to overcome the insufficiency and the independency hypothesis of naïve Bayesian. In addition, the dependency in Bayesian network is realized using TAN algorithm rather than consulting pneumologists. All these combined algorithms (discretization, selection, dependency, and the ordering of the relevant attributes) constitute an effective prediction model, comparing to effective ones. Moreover, an investigation and comparison of different scenarios of these algorithms are also done to verify which sequence of steps of prediction model gives more accurate results. Finally, we designed and validated a computer-aided support application to integrate different steps of this model. The findings of our system HCES has shown promising results using Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC = 81.5%). PMID:28644419

  11. Context Specific and Differential Gene Co-expression Networks via Bayesian Biclustering

    PubMed Central

    McDowell, Ian C.; Zhao, Shiwen; Brown, Christopher D.; Engelhardt, Barbara E.

    2016-01-01

    Identifying latent structure in high-dimensional genomic data is essential for exploring biological processes. Here, we consider recovering gene co-expression networks from gene expression data, where each network encodes relationships between genes that are co-regulated by shared biological mechanisms. To do this, we develop a Bayesian statistical model for biclustering to infer subsets of co-regulated genes that covary in all of the samples or in only a subset of the samples. Our biclustering method, BicMix, allows overcomplete representations of the data, computational tractability, and joint modeling of unknown confounders and biological signals. Compared with related biclustering methods, BicMix recovers latent structure with higher precision across diverse simulation scenarios as compared to state-of-the-art biclustering methods. Further, we develop a principled method to recover context specific gene co-expression networks from the estimated sparse biclustering matrices. We apply BicMix to breast cancer gene expression data and to gene expression data from a cardiovascular study cohort, and we recover gene co-expression networks that are differential across ER+ and ER- samples and across male and female samples. We apply BicMix to the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) pilot data, and we find tissue specific gene networks. We validate these findings by using our tissue specific networks to identify trans-eQTLs specific to one of four primary tissues. PMID:27467526

  12. Building a Model Using Bayesian Network for Assessment of Posterior Probabilities of Falling From Height at Workplaces

    PubMed Central

    Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi

    2014-01-01

    Background: Falls from height are one of the main causes of fatal occupational injuries. The objective of this study was to present a model for estimating occurrence probability of falling from height. Methods: In order to make a list of factors affecting falls, we used four expert group's judgment, literature review and an available database. Then the validity and reliability of designed questionnaire were determined and Bayesian networks were built. The built network, nodes and curves were quantified. For network sensitivity analysis, four types of analysis carried out. Results: A Bayesian network for assessment of posterior probabilities of falling from height proposed. The presented Bayesian network model shows the interrelationships among 37 causes affecting the falling from height and can calculate its posterior probabilities. The most important factors affecting falling were Non-compliance with safety instructions for work at height (0.127), Lack of safety equipment for work at height (0.094) and Lack of safety instructions for work at height (0.071) respectively. Conclusion: The proposed Bayesian network used to determine how different causes could affect the falling from height at work. The findings of this study can be used to decide on the falling accident prevention programs. PMID:25648498

  13. A Bayesian network decision model for supporting the diagnosis of dementia, Alzheimer׳s disease and mild cognitive impairment.

    PubMed

    Seixas, Flávio Luiz; Zadrozny, Bianca; Laks, Jerson; Conci, Aura; Muchaluat Saade, Débora Christina

    2014-08-01

    Population aging has been occurring as a global phenomenon with heterogeneous consequences in both developed and developing countries. Neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer׳s Disease (AD), have high prevalence in the elderly population. Early diagnosis of this type of disease allows early treatment and improves patient quality of life. This paper proposes a Bayesian network decision model for supporting diagnosis of dementia, AD and Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Bayesian networks are well-suited for representing uncertainty and causality, which are both present in clinical domains. The proposed Bayesian network was modeled using a combination of expert knowledge and data-oriented modeling. The network structure was built based on current diagnostic criteria and input from physicians who are experts in this domain. The network parameters were estimated using a supervised learning algorithm from a dataset of real clinical cases. The dataset contains data from patients and normal controls from the Duke University Medical Center (Washington, USA) and the Center for Alzheimer׳s Disease and Related Disorders (at the Institute of Psychiatry of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). The dataset attributes consist of predisposal factors, neuropsychological test results, patient demographic data, symptoms and signs. The decision model was evaluated using quantitative methods and a sensitivity analysis. In conclusion, the proposed Bayesian network showed better results for diagnosis of dementia, AD and MCI when compared to most of the other well-known classifiers. Moreover, it provides additional useful information to physicians, such as the contribution of certain factors to diagnosis.

  14. A Bayesian Network of Eutrophication Models for Synthesis, Prediction, and Uncertainty Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stow, C. A.; Borsuk, M. E.; Reckhow, K. H.

    2005-05-01

    Accurate prediction in complex adaptive systems is difficult. Even in a simple programmed system where all the rules of interaction are known exactly, unexpected behavior can arise. Thus, forecasting in real ecological systems, where system behavior is often poorly understood, requires characterization of the inherent prediction uncertainty. We developed a Bayesian probability network to predict the effect of nitrogen load reductions on eutrophication symptoms in the Neuse River Estuary, NC. The model consists of a set of sub-models, each independently estimated, and capable of probabilistic prediction. Probabilistic forecasts are propagated through the network in accordance with fundamental probability rules. This approach is extremely flexible as it can accommodate information from detailed process-based models, empirically-based models, probabilistic knowledge elicited from experts, or any combination of these sources. Additionally, the Bayesian framework facilitates model updating, in an Adaptive Management context. As management actions to reduce nitrogen inputs become effective the response of system can be monitored and the new data rigorously assimilated into the model via Bayes Theorem. In the Neuse Estuary this latter feature should be particularly informative because the influences of river flow and nitrogen input are highly confounded making their independent effects difficult to estimate.

  15. Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures. PMID:27463975

  16. Assessing State Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: Using Bayesian Network Analysis of Social Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Olson, Jarrod; Whitney, Paul D.

    2010-04-16

    A Bayesian network (BN) model of social factors can support proliferation assessments by estimating the likelihood that a state will pursue a nuclear weapon. Social factors including political, economic, nuclear capability, security, and national identity and psychology factors may play as important a role in whether a State pursues nuclear weapons as more physical factors. This paper will show how using Bayesian reasoning on a generic case of a would-be proliferator State can be used to combine evidence that supports proliferation assessment. Theories and analysis by political scientists can be leveraged in a quantitative and transparent way to indicate proliferation risk. BN models facilitate diagnosis and inference in a probabilistic environment by using a network of nodes and acyclic directed arcs between the nodes whose connections, or absence of, indicate probabilistic relevance, or independence. We propose a BN model that would use information from both traditional safeguards and the strengthened safeguards associated with the Additional Protocol to indicate countries with a high risk of proliferating nuclear weapons. This model could be used in a variety of applications such a prioritization tool and as a component of state safeguards evaluations. This paper will discuss the benefits of BN reasoning, the development of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) BN state proliferation model and how it could be employed as an analytical tool.

  17. In-Hospital Death Caused by Pancreatic Cancer in Spain: Application with a Bayesian Network

    PubMed Central

    Álvaro-Meca, A.; Gil-Prieto, R.; Gil de Miguel, A.

    2011-01-01

    Pancreatic cancer is one of the least common tumors (2.1%), but it remains one of the most lethal. This lethality is primarily due to late stage diagnosis in the vast majority of patients. Here we demonstrate, using a Bayesian network, that we can determine a posteriori, with a high probability of success, the probability of in-hospital death of pancreatic cancer in hospitals across Spain with information related to the type of admission, the type of procedure, the primary diagnosis or the Charlson co-morbidity index. The advantages of using a Bayesian network are that it allows us to examine multiple hypotheses and to measure the effect of the introduction of variables on our hypotheses. Being able to determine deceases in the probability of survival based on hospital admission data, such as the diagnosis resulting in the present admission or the presence of co-morbidities, could facilitate the detection of deficiencies in the patient treatment and improve hospital management. Moreover, the control of related co-morbidities may have an impact on the in-hospital deaths of these patients. PMID:23675228

  18. A Bayesian network approach to knowledge integration and representation of farm irrigation: 1. Model development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Haines, C. L.

    2009-02-01

    Irrigation is important to many agricultural businesses but also has implications for catchment health. A considerable body of knowledge exists on how irrigation management affects farm business and catchment health. However, this knowledge is fragmentary; is available in many forms such as qualitative and quantitative; is dispersed in scientific literature, technical reports, and the minds of individuals; and is of varying degrees of certainty. Bayesian networks allow the integration of dispersed knowledge into quantitative systems models. This study describes the development, validation, and application of a Bayesian network model of farm irrigation in the Shepparton Irrigation Region of northern Victoria, Australia. In this first paper we describe the process used to integrate a range of sources of knowledge to develop a model of farm irrigation. We describe the principal model components and summarize the reaction to the model and its development process by local stakeholders. Subsequent papers in this series describe model validation and the application of the model to assess the regional impact of historical and future management intervention.

  19. Predicting Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Clades Using Knowledge-Based Bayesian Networks

    PubMed Central

    Bennett, Kristin P.

    2014-01-01

    We develop a novel approach for incorporating expert rules into Bayesian networks for classification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) clades. The proposed knowledge-based Bayesian network (KBBN) treats sets of expert rules as prior distributions on the classes. Unlike prior knowledge-based support vector machine approaches which require rules expressed as polyhedral sets, KBBN directly incorporates the rules without any modification. KBBN uses data to refine rule-based classifiers when the rule set is incomplete or ambiguous. We develop a predictive KBBN model for 69 MTBC clades found in the SITVIT international collection. We validate the approach using two testbeds that model knowledge of the MTBC obtained from two different experts and large DNA fingerprint databases to predict MTBC genetic clades and sublineages. These models represent strains of MTBC using high-throughput biomarkers called spacer oligonucleotide types (spoligotypes), since these are routinely gathered from MTBC isolates of tuberculosis (TB) patients. Results show that incorporating rules into problems can drastically increase classification accuracy if data alone are insufficient. The SITVIT KBBN is publicly available for use on the World Wide Web. PMID:24864238

  20. Assessment of successful smoking cessation by psychological factors using the Bayesian network approach.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xiaorong; Li, Suyun; Pan, Lulu; Wang, Qiang; Li, Huijie; Han, Mingkui; Zhang, Nan; Jiang, Fan; Jia, Chongqi

    2016-07-01

    The association between psychological factors and smoking cessation is complicated and inconsistent in published researches, and the joint effect of psychological factors on smoking cessation is unclear. This study explored how psychological factors jointly affect the success of smoking cessation using a Bayesian network approach. A community-based case control study was designed with 642 adult male successful smoking quitters as the cases, and 700 adult male failed smoking quitters as the controls. General self-efficacy (GSE), trait coping style (positive-trait coping style (PTCS) and negative-trait coping style (NTCS)) and self-rating anxiety (SA) were evaluated by GSE Scale, Trait Coping Style Questionnaire and SA Scale, respectively. Bayesian network was applied to evaluate the relationship between psychological factors and successful smoking cessation. The local conditional probability table of smoking cessation indicated that different joint conditions of psychological factors led to different outcomes for smoking cessation. Among smokers with high PTCS, high NTCS and low SA, only 36.40% successfully quitted smoking. However, among smokers with low pack-years of smoking, high GSE, high PTCS and high SA, 63.64% successfully quitted smoking. Our study indicates psychological factors jointly influence smoking cessation outcome. According to different joint situations, different solutions should be developed to control tobacco in practical intervention.

  1. A dynamic Bayesian network for estimating the risk of falls from real gait data.

    PubMed

    Cuaya, German; Muñoz-Meléndez, Angélica; Nuñez Carrera, Lidia; Morales, Eduardo F; Quiñones, Ivett; Pérez, Alberto I; Alessi, Aldo

    2013-02-01

    Pathological and age-related changes may affect an individual's gait, in turn raising the risk of falls. In elderly, falls are common and may eventuate in severe injuries, long-term disabilities, and even death. Thus, there is interest in estimating the risk of falls from gait analysis. Estimation of the risk of falls requires consideration of the longitudinal evolution of different variables derived from human gait. Bayesian networks are probabilistic models which graphically express dependencies among variables. Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are a type of BN adequate for modeling the dynamics of the statistical dependencies in a set of variables. In this work, a DBN model incorporates gait derived variables to predict the risk of falls in elderly within 6 months subsequent to gait assessment. Two DBNs were developed; the first (DBN1; expert-guided) was built using gait variables identified by domain experts, whereas the second (DBN2; strictly computational) was constructed utilizing gait variables picked out by a feature selection algorithm. The effectiveness of the second model to predict falls in the 6 months following assessment is 72.22%. These results are encouraging and supply evidence regarding the usefulness of dynamic probabilistic models in the prediction of falls from pathological gait.

  2. Using robust Bayesian network to estimate the residuals of fluoroquinolone antibiotic in soil.

    PubMed

    Li, Xuewen; Xie, Yunfeng; Li, Lianfa; Yang, Xunfeng; Wang, Ning; Wang, Jinfeng

    2015-11-01

    Prediction of antibiotic pollution and its consequences is difficult, due to the uncertainties and complexities associated with multiple related factors. This article employed domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) model to assess fluoroquinolone antibiotic (FQs) pollution in the soil of an intensive vegetable cultivation area. The results show: (1) The relationships between FQs pollution and contributory factors: Three factors (cultivation methods, crop rotations, and chicken manure types) were consistently identified as predictors in the topological structures of three FQs, indicating their importance in FQs pollution; deduced with domain knowledge, the cultivation methods are determined by the crop rotations, which require different nutrients (derived from the manure) according to different plant biomass. (2) The performance of BN model: The integrative robust Bayesian network model achieved the highest detection probability (pd) of high-risk and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area, since it incorporates domain knowledge and model uncertainty. Our encouraging findings have implications for the use of BN as a robust approach to assessment of FQs pollution and for informing decisions on appropriate remedial measures.

  3. A real-time fault diagnosis methodology of complex systems using object-oriented Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Hanlin; Xie, Min

    2016-12-01

    Bayesian network (BN) is a commonly used tool in probabilistic reasoning of uncertainty in industrial processes, but it requires modeling of large and complex systems, in situations such as fault diagnosis and reliability evaluation. Motivated by reduction of the overall complexities of BNs for fault diagnosis, and the reporting of faults that immediately occur, a real-time fault diagnosis methodology of complex systems with repetitive structures is proposed using object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs). The modeling methodology consists of two main phases: an off-line OOBN construction phase and an on-line fault diagnosis phase. In the off-line phase, sensor historical data and expert knowledge are collected and processed to determine the faults and symptoms, and OOBN-based fault diagnosis models are developed subsequently. In the on-line phase, operator experience and sensor real-time data are placed in the OOBNs to perform the fault diagnosis. According to engineering experience, the judgment rules are defined to obtain the fault diagnosis results.

  4. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents.

  5. Neural network-aided variational Bayesian adaptive cubature Kalman filtering for nonlinear state estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miao, Zhiyong; Shi, Hongyang; Zhang, Yi; Xu, Fan

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, a new variational Bayesian adaptive cubature Kalman filter (VBACKF) is proposed for nonlinear state estimation. Although the conventional VBACKF performs better than cubature Kalman filtering (CKF) in solving nonlinear systems with time-varying measurement noise, its performance may degrade due to the uncertainty of the system model. To overcome this drawback, a multilayer feed-forward neural network (MFNN) is used to aid the conventional VBACKF, generalizing it to attain higher estimation accuracy and robustness. In the proposed neural-network-aided variational Bayesian adaptive cubature Kalman filter (NN-VBACKF), the MFNN is used to turn the state estimation of the VBACKF adaptively, and it is used for both state estimation and in the online training paradigm simultaneously. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, it is compared with CKF and VBACKF via target tracking problems. The simulation results demonstrate that the estimation accuracy and robustness of the proposed method are better than those of the CKF and VBACKF.

  6. Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network

    PubMed Central

    de Nijs, Patrick J.; Berry, Nicholas J.; Wells, Geoff J.; Reay, Dave S.

    2014-01-01

    The need for smallholder farmers to adapt their practices to a changing climate is well recognised, particularly in Africa. The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa is estimated to be $20 to $30 billion per year, but the total amount pledged to finance adaptation falls significantly short of this requirement. The difficulty of assessing and monitoring when adaptation is achieved is one of the key barriers to the disbursement of performance-based adaptation finance. To demonstrate the potential of Bayesian Belief Networks for describing the impacts of specific activities on climate change resilience, we developed a simple model that incorporates climate projections, local environmental data, information from peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion to account for the adaptation benefits derived from Climate-Smart Agriculture activities in Malawi. This novel approach allows assessment of vulnerability to climate change under different land use activities and can be used to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and to quantify biophysical adaptation benefits from activities that are implemented. We suggest that multiple-indicator Bayesian Belief Network approaches can provide insights into adaptation planning for a wide range of applications and, if further explored, could be part of a set of important catalysts for the expansion of adaptation finance. PMID:25327826

  7. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

    2016-01-08

    A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  8. Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions.

    PubMed

    Stewart, G B; Mengersen, K; Meader, N

    2014-03-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention. Bayesian networks are useful extensions to logic maps when initiating a review or to facilitate synthesis and bridge the gap between evidence acquisition and decision-making. Formal elicitation techniques allow development of BNs on the basis of expert opinion. Such applications are useful alternatives to 'empty' reviews, which identify knowledge gaps but fail to support decision-making. Where review evidence exists, it can inform the development of a BN. We illustrate the construction of a BN using a motivating example that demonstrates how BNs can ensure coherence, transparently structure the problem addressed by a complex intervention and assess sensitivity to context, all of which are critical components of robust reviews of complex interventions. We suggest that BNs should be utilised to routinely synthesise reviews of complex interventions or empty reviews where decisions must be made despite poor evidence. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification.

    PubMed

    Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures.

  10. Towards optimization of chemical testing under REACH: a Bayesian network approach to Integrated Testing Strategies.

    PubMed

    Jaworska, Joanna; Gabbert, Silke; Aldenberg, Tom

    2010-01-01

    Integrated Testing Strategies (ITSs) are considered tools for guiding resource efficient decision-making on chemical hazard and risk management. Originating in the mid-nineties from research initiatives on minimizing animal use in toxicity testing, ITS development still lacks a methodologically consistent framework for incorporating all relevant information, for updating and reducing uncertainty across testing stages, and for handling conditionally dependent evidence. This paper presents a conceptual and methodological proposal for improving ITS development. We discuss methodological shortcomings of current ITS approaches, and we identify conceptual requirements for ITS development and optimization. First, ITS development should be based on probabilistic methods in order to quantify and update various uncertainties across testing stages. Second, reasoning should reflect a set of logic rules for consistently combining probabilities of related events. Third, inference should be hypothesis-driven and should reflect causal relationships in order to coherently guide decision-making across testing stages. To meet these requirements, we propose an information-theoretic approach to ITS development, the "ITS inference framework", which can be made operational by using Bayesian networks. As an illustration, we examine a simple two-test battery for assessing rodent carcinogenicity. Finally, we demonstrate how running the Bayesian network reveals a quantitative measure of Weight-of-Evidence.

  11. Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Nijs, Patrick J.; Berry, Nicholas J.; Wells, Geoff J.; Reay, Dave S.

    2014-10-01

    The need for smallholder farmers to adapt their practices to a changing climate is well recognised, particularly in Africa. The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa is estimated to be $20 to $30 billion per year, but the total amount pledged to finance adaptation falls significantly short of this requirement. The difficulty of assessing and monitoring when adaptation is achieved is one of the key barriers to the disbursement of performance-based adaptation finance. To demonstrate the potential of Bayesian Belief Networks for describing the impacts of specific activities on climate change resilience, we developed a simple model that incorporates climate projections, local environmental data, information from peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion to account for the adaptation benefits derived from Climate-Smart Agriculture activities in Malawi. This novel approach allows assessment of vulnerability to climate change under different land use activities and can be used to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and to quantify biophysical adaptation benefits from activities that are implemented. We suggest that multiple-indicator Bayesian Belief Network approaches can provide insights into adaptation planning for a wide range of applications and, if further explored, could be part of a set of important catalysts for the expansion of adaptation finance.

  12. Developing a Validation Methodology for Expert-Informed Bayesian Network Models Supporting Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    White, Amanda M.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Whitney, Paul D.

    2014-05-13

    Under the auspices of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Signature Discovery Initiative (SDI), the research team developed a series of Bayesian Network models to assess multi-source signatures of nuclear programs. A Bayesian network is a mathematical model that can be used to marshal evidence to assess competing hypotheses. The purpose of the models was to allow non-expert analysts to benefit from the use of expert-informed mathematical models to assess nuclear programs, because such assessments require significant technical expertise ranging from the nuclear fuel cycle, construction and engineering, imagery analysis, and so forth. One such model developed under this research was aimed at assessing the consistency of open-source information about a nuclear facility with the facility’s declared use. The model incorporates factors such as location, security and safety features among others identified by subject matter experts as crucial to their assessments. The model includes key features, observables and their relationships. The model also provides documentation, which serves as training materials for the non-experts.

  13. Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network.

    PubMed

    de Nijs, Patrick J; Berry, Nicholas J; Wells, Geoff J; Reay, Dave S

    2014-10-20

    The need for smallholder farmers to adapt their practices to a changing climate is well recognised, particularly in Africa. The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa is estimated to be $20 to $30 billion per year, but the total amount pledged to finance adaptation falls significantly short of this requirement. The difficulty of assessing and monitoring when adaptation is achieved is one of the key barriers to the disbursement of performance-based adaptation finance. To demonstrate the potential of Bayesian Belief Networks for describing the impacts of specific activities on climate change resilience, we developed a simple model that incorporates climate projections, local environmental data, information from peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion to account for the adaptation benefits derived from Climate-Smart Agriculture activities in Malawi. This novel approach allows assessment of vulnerability to climate change under different land use activities and can be used to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and to quantify biophysical adaptation benefits from activities that are implemented. We suggest that multiple-indicator Bayesian Belief Network approaches can provide insights into adaptation planning for a wide range of applications and, if further explored, could be part of a set of important catalysts for the expansion of adaptation finance.

  14. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

    PubMed Central

    Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

    2016-01-01

    A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:26761006

  15. Classification of EEG based-mental fatigue using principal component analysis and Bayesian neural network.

    PubMed

    Rifai Chai; Tran, Yvonne; Naik, Ganesh R; Nguyen, Tuan N; Sai Ho Ling; Craig, Ashley; Nguyen, Hung T

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents an electroencephalography (EEG) based-classification of between pre- and post-mental load tasks for mental fatigue detection from 65 healthy participants. During the data collection, eye closed and eye open tasks were collected before and after conducting the mental load tasks. For the computational intelligence, the system uses the combination of principal component analysis (PCA) as the dimension reduction method of the original 26 channels of EEG data, power spectral density (PSD) as feature extractor and Bayesian neural network (BNN) as classifier. After applying the PCA, the dimension of the data is reduced from 26 EEG channels in 6 principal components (PCs) with above 90% of information retained. Based on this reduced dimension of 6 PCs of data, during eyes open, the classification pre-task (alert) vs. post-task (fatigue) using Bayesian neural network resulted in sensitivity of 76.8 %, specificity of 75.1% and accuracy of 76% Also based on data from the 6 PCs, during eye closed, the classification between pre- and post-task resulted in a sensitivity of 76.1%, specificity of 74.5% and accuracy of 75.3%. Further, the classification results of using only 6 PCs data are comparable to the result using the original 26 EEG channels. This finding will help in reducing the computational complexity of data analysis based on 26 channels of EEG for mental fatigue detection.

  16. Automated high resolution mapping of coffee in Rwanda using an expert Bayesian network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukashema, A.; Veldkamp, A.; Vrieling, A.

    2014-12-01

    African highland agro-ecosystems are dominated by small-scale agricultural fields that often contain a mix of annual and perennial crops. This makes such systems difficult to map by remote sensing. We developed an expert Bayesian network model to extract the small-scale coffee fields of Rwanda from very high resolution data. The model was subsequently applied to aerial orthophotos covering more than 99% of Rwanda and on one QuickBird image for the remaining part. The method consists of a stepwise adjustment of pixel probabilities, which incorporates expert knowledge on size of coffee trees and fields, and on their location. The initial naive Bayesian network, which is a spectral-based classification, yielded a coffee map with an overall accuracy of around 50%. This confirms that standard spectral variables alone cannot accurately identify coffee fields from high resolution images. The combination of spectral and ancillary data (DEM and a forest map) allowed mapping of coffee fields and associated uncertainties with an overall accuracy of 87%. Aggregated to district units, the mapped coffee areas demonstrated a high correlation with the coffee areas reported in the detailed national coffee census of 2009 (R2 = 0.92). Unlike the census data our map provides high spatial resolution of coffee area patterns of Rwanda. The proposed method has potential for mapping other perennial small scale cropping systems in the East African Highlands and elsewhere.

  17. The Lifecycle of Bayesian Network Models Developed for Multi-Source Signature Assessment of Nuclear Programs

    SciTech Connect

    Gastelum, Zoe N.; White, Amanda M.; Whitney, Paul D.; Gosink, Luke J.; Sego, Landon H.

    2013-06-04

    The Multi-Source Signatures for Nuclear Programs project, part of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) Signature Discovery Initiative, seeks to computationally capture expert assessment of multi-type information such as text, sensor output, imagery, or audio/video files, to assess nuclear activities through a series of Bayesian network (BN) models. These models incorporate knowledge from a diverse range of information sources in order to help assess a country’s nuclear activities. The models span engineering topic areas, state-level indicators, and facility-specific characteristics. To illustrate the development, calibration, and use of BN models for multi-source assessment, we present a model that predicts a country’s likelihood to participate in the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. We validate this model by examining the extent to which the model assists non-experts arrive at conclusions similar to those provided by nuclear proliferation experts. We also describe the PNNL-developed software used throughout the lifecycle of the Bayesian network model development.

  18. The evaluation of evidence in the forensic investigation of fire incidents (Part I): an approach using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Biedermann, A; Taroni, F; Delemont, O; Semadeni, C; Davison, A C

    2005-01-06

    The forensic investigation of the origin and cause of a fire incident is a particularly demanding area of expertise. As the available evidence is often incomplete or vague, uncertainty is a key element. The present study is an attempt to approach this through the use of Bayesian networks, which have been found useful in assisting human reasoning in a variety of disciplines in which uncertainty plays a central role. The present paper describes the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) and its use for drawing inferences about propositions of interest, based upon a single, possibly non replicable item of evidence: detected residual quantities of a flammable liquid in fire debris.

  19. Bayesian network meta-analysis for unordered categorical outcomes with incomplete data.

    PubMed

    Schmid, Christopher H; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Olkin, Ingram

    2014-06-01

    We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of treatment effects across multiple treatments and multiple outcome categories. We apply the model to analyze 17 trials, each of which compares two of three treatments (high and low dose statins and standard care/control) for three outcomes for which data are complete: cardiovascular death, non-cardiovascular death and no death. We also analyze the cardiovascular death category divided into the three subcategories (coronary heart disease, stroke and other cardiovascular diseases) that are not completely observed. The multinomial and network representations show that high dose statins are effective in reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease.

  20. Building method of diagnostic model of Bayesian networks based on fault tree

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xiao; Li, Haijun; Li, Lin

    2008-10-01

    Fault tree (FT) is usually a reliability and security analysis and diagnoses decision model. It is also in common use that expressing fault diagnosis question with fault tree model. But it will not be changed easily if fault free model was built, and it could not accept and deal with new information easily. It is difficult to put the information which have nothing to do with equipment fault but can be used to fault diagnosis into diagnostic course. Bayesian Networks (BN) can learn and improve its network architecture and parameters at any time by way of practice accumulation, and raises the ability of fault diagnosis. The method of building BN based on FT is researched on this article, this method could break through the limitations of FT itself, make BN be more extensively applied to the domain of fault diagnosis and gains much better ability of fault analysis and diagnosis.

  1. Gene regulatory network inference and validation using relative change ratio analysis and time-delayed dynamic Bayesian network.

    PubMed

    Li, Peng; Gong, Ping; Li, Haoni; Perkins, Edward J; Wang, Nan; Zhang, Chaoyang

    2014-12-01

    The Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) project was initiated in 2006 as a community-wide effort for the development of network inference challenges for rigorous assessment of reverse engineering methods for biological networks. We participated in the in silico network inference challenge of DREAM3 in 2008. Here we report the details of our approach and its performance on the synthetic challenge datasets. In our methodology, we first developed a model called relative change ratio (RCR), which took advantage of the heterozygous knockdown data and null-mutant knockout data provided by the challenge, in order to identify the potential regulators for the genes. With this information, a time-delayed dynamic Bayesian network (TDBN) approach was then used to infer gene regulatory networks from time series trajectory datasets. Our approach considerably reduced the searching space of TDBN; hence, it gained a much higher efficiency and accuracy. The networks predicted using our approach were evaluated comparatively along with 29 other submissions by two metrics (area under the ROC curve and area under the precision-recall curve). The overall performance of our approach ranked the second among all participating teams.

  2. Gene Regulatory Network Reconstruction Using Bayesian Networks, the Dantzig Selector, the Lasso and Their Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Vignes, Matthieu; Vandel, Jimmy; Allouche, David; Ramadan-Alban, Nidal; Cierco-Ayrolles, Christine; Schiex, Thomas; Mangin, Brigitte; de Givry, Simon

    2011-01-01

    Modern technologies and especially next generation sequencing facilities are giving a cheaper access to genotype and genomic data measured on the same sample at once. This creates an ideal situation for multifactorial experiments designed to infer gene regulatory networks. The fifth “Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods” (DREAM5) challenges are aimed at assessing methods and associated algorithms devoted to the inference of biological networks. Challenge 3 on “Systems Genetics” proposed to infer causal gene regulatory networks from different genetical genomics data sets. We investigated a wide panel of methods ranging from Bayesian networks to penalised linear regressions to analyse such data, and proposed a simple yet very powerful meta-analysis, which combines these inference methods. We present results of the Challenge as well as more in-depth analysis of predicted networks in terms of structure and reliability. The developed meta-analysis was ranked first among the teams participating in Challenge 3A. It paves the way for future extensions of our inference method and more accurate gene network estimates in the context of genetical genomics. PMID:22216195

  3. Bayesian Network Structure Learning for Urban Land Use Classification from Landsat ETM+ and Ancillary Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, M.; Stenstrom, M. K.

    2004-12-01

    Recognizing urban information from the satellite imagery is problematic due to the diverse features and dynamic changes of urban landuse. The use of Landsat imagery for urban land use classification involves inherent uncertainty due to its spatial resolution and the low separability among land uses. To resolve the uncertainty problem, we investigated the performance of Bayesian networks to classify urban land use since Bayesian networks provide a quantitative way of handling uncertainty and have been successfully used in many areas. In this study, we developed the optimized networks for urban land use classification from Landsat ETM+ images of Marina del Rey area based on USGS land cover/use classification level III. The networks started from a tree structure based on mutual information between variables and added the links to improve accuracy. This methodology offers several advantages: (1) The network structure shows the dependency relationships between variables. The class node value can be predicted even with particular band information missing due to sensor system error. The missing information can be inferred from other dependent bands. (2) The network structure provides information of variables that are important for the classification, which is not available from conventional classification methods such as neural networks and maximum likelihood classification. In our case, for example, bands 1, 5 and 6 are the most important inputs in determining the land use of each pixel. (3) The networks can be reduced with those input variables important for classification. This minimizes the problem without considering all possible variables. We also examined the effect of incorporating ancillary data: geospatial information such as X and Y coordinate values of each pixel and DEM data, and vegetation indices such as NDVI and Tasseled Cap transformation. The results showed that the locational information improved overall accuracy (81%) and kappa coefficient (76%), and

  4. Predicting the functions of long noncoding RNAs using RNA-seq based on Bayesian network.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Yun; Lv, Yanling; Zhao, Hongying; Gong, Yonghui; Hu, Jing; Li, Feng; Xu, Jinyuan; Bai, Jing; Yu, Fulong; Li, Xia

    2015-01-01

    Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been shown to play key roles in various biological processes. However, functions of most lncRNAs are poorly characterized. Here, we represent a framework to predict functions of lncRNAs through construction of a regulatory network between lncRNAs and protein-coding genes. Using RNA-seq data, the transcript profiles of lncRNAs and protein-coding genes are constructed. Using the Bayesian network method, a regulatory network, which implies dependency relations between lncRNAs and protein-coding genes, was built. In combining protein interaction network, highly connected coding genes linked by a given lncRNA were subsequently used to predict functions of the lncRNA through functional enrichment. Application of our method to prostate RNA-seq data showed that 762 lncRNAs in the constructed regulatory network were assigned functions. We found that lncRNAs are involved in diverse biological processes, such as tissue development or embryo development (e.g., nervous system development and mesoderm development). By comparison with functions inferred using the neighboring gene-based method and functions determined using lncRNA knockdown experiments, our method can provide comparable predicted functions of lncRNAs. Overall, our method can be applied to emerging RNA-seq data, which will help researchers identify complex relations between lncRNAs and coding genes and reveal important functions of lncRNAs.

  5. Estimating survival in patients with operable skeletal metastases: an application of a bayesian belief network.

    PubMed

    Forsberg, Jonathan Agner; Eberhardt, John; Boland, Patrick J; Wedin, Rikard; Healey, John H

    2011-01-01

    Accurate estimations of life expectancy are important in the management of patients with metastatic cancer affecting the extremities, and help set patient, family, and physician expectations. Clinically, the decision whether to operate on patients with skeletal metastases, as well as the choice of surgical procedure, are predicated on an individual patient's estimated survival. Currently, there are no reliable methods for estimating survival in this patient population. Bayesian classification, which includes bayesian belief network (BBN) modeling, is a statistical method that explores conditional, probabilistic relationships between variables to estimate the likelihood of an outcome using observed data. Thus, BBN models are being used with increasing frequency in a variety of diagnoses to codify complex clinical data into prognostic models. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of developing bayesian classifiers to estimate survival in patients undergoing surgery for metastases of the axial and appendicular skeleton. We searched an institution-owned patient management database for all patients who underwent surgery for skeletal metastases between 1999 and 2003. We then developed and trained a machine-learned BBN model to estimate survival in months using candidate features based on historical data. Ten-fold cross-validation and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were performed to evaluate the BNN model's accuracy and robustness. A total of 189 consecutive patients were included. First-degree predictors of survival differed between the 3-month and 12-month models. Following cross validation, the area under the ROC curve was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.80-0.93) for 3-month probability of survival and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.77-0.90) for 12-month probability of survival. A robust, accurate, probabilistic naïve BBN model was successfully developed using observed clinical data to estimate individualized survival in patients with operable skeletal

  6. Predicting complex quantitative traits with Bayesian neural networks: a case study with Jersey cows and wheat

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background In the study of associations between genomic data and complex phenotypes there may be relationships that are not amenable to parametric statistical modeling. Such associations have been investigated mainly using single-marker and Bayesian linear regression models that differ in their distributions, but that assume additive inheritance while ignoring interactions and non-linearity. When interactions have been included in the model, their effects have entered linearly. There is a growing interest in non-parametric methods for predicting quantitative traits based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regressions on markers and radial basis functions. Artificial neural networks (ANN) provide an alternative, because these act as universal approximators of complex functions and can capture non-linear relationships between predictors and responses, with the interplay among variables learned adaptively. ANNs are interesting candidates for analysis of traits affected by cryptic forms of gene action. Results We investigated various Bayesian ANN architectures using for predicting phenotypes in two data sets consisting of milk production in Jersey cows and yield of inbred lines of wheat. For the Jerseys, predictor variables were derived from pedigree and molecular marker (35,798 single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPS) information on 297 individually cows. The wheat data represented 599 lines, each genotyped with 1,279 markers. The ability of predicting fat, milk and protein yield was low when using pedigrees, but it was better when SNPs were employed, irrespective of the ANN trained. Predictive ability was even better in wheat because the trait was a mean, as opposed to an individual phenotype in cows. Non-linear neural networks outperformed a linear model in predictive ability in both data sets, but more clearly in wheat. Conclusion Results suggest that neural networks may be useful for predicting complex traits using high-dimensional genomic information, a situation

  7. Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference using Clique Tree Growth Curves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mengshoel, Ole Jakob

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to represent and efficiently compute with multi-variate probability distributions in a wide range of disciplines. One of the main approaches to perform computation in BNs is clique tree clustering and propagation. In this approach, BN computation consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. There is a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time, and BN computation time in more general, depends on variations in BN size and structure. On the one hand, complexity results tell us that many interesting BN queries are NP-hard or worse to answer, and it is not hard to find application BNs where the clique tree approach in practice cannot be used. On the other hand, it is well-known that tree-structured BNs can be used to answer probabilistic queries in polynomial time. In this article, we develop an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN's non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, or (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Our approach is based on combining analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, we consequently have two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, we systematically increase the degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, and find that root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves. It is believed that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering, provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms, and presents an aid for analytical trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using

  8. Bayesian network structure learning based on the chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Q; Li, Z; Zhou, C J; Wei, X P

    2013-10-10

    The Bayesian network (BN) is a knowledge representation form, which has been proven to be valuable in the gene regulatory network reconstruction because of its capability of capturing causal relationships between genes. Learning BN structures from a database is a nondeterministic polynomial time (NP)-hard problem that remains one of the most exciting challenges in machine learning. Several heuristic searching techniques have been used to find better network structures. Among these algorithms, the classical K2 algorithm is the most successful. Nonetheless, the performance of the K2 algorithm is greatly affected by a prior ordering of input nodes. The proposed method in this paper is based on the chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) and the K2 algorithm. Because the PSO algorithm completely entraps the local minimum in later evolutions, we combined the PSO algorithm with the chaos theory, which has the properties of ergodicity, randomness, and regularity. Experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the convergence rate of particles and identify networks more efficiently and accurately.

  9. A Bayesian maximum entropy-based methodology for optimal spatiotemporal design of groundwater monitoring networks.

    PubMed

    Hosseini, Marjan; Kerachian, Reza

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing the spatiotemporal variability of water table levels and redesigning a groundwater level monitoring network (GLMN) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) technique and a multi-criteria decision-making approach based on ordered weighted averaging (OWA). The spatial sampling is determined using a hexagonal gridding pattern and a new method, which is proposed to assign a removal priority number to each pre-existing station. To design temporal sampling, a new approach is also applied to consider uncertainty caused by lack of information. In this approach, different time lag values are tested by regarding another source of information, which is simulation result of a numerical groundwater flow model. Furthermore, to incorporate the existing uncertainties in available monitoring data, the flexibility of the BME interpolation technique is taken into account in applying soft data and improving the accuracy of the calculations. To examine the methodology, it is applied to the Dehgolan plain in northwestern Iran. Based on the results, a configuration of 33 monitoring stations for a regular hexagonal grid of side length 3600 m is proposed, in which the time lag between samples is equal to 5 weeks. Since the variance estimation errors of the BME method are almost identical for redesigned and existing networks, the redesigned monitoring network is more cost-effective and efficient than the existing monitoring network with 52 stations and monthly sampling frequency.

  10. Elucidation of Genetic Interactions in the Yeast GATA-Factor Network Using Bayesian Model Selection

    PubMed Central

    Milias-Argeitis, Andreas; Oliveira, Ana Paula; Gerosa, Luca; Falter, Laura; Sauer, Uwe; Lygeros, John

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the structure and function of complex gene regulatory networks using classical genetic assays is an error-prone procedure that frequently generates ambiguous outcomes. Even some of the best-characterized gene networks contain interactions whose validity is not conclusively proven. Founded on dynamic experimental data, mechanistic mathematical models are able to offer detailed insights that would otherwise require prohibitively large numbers of genetic experiments. Here we attempt mechanistic modeling of the transcriptional network formed by the four GATA-factor proteins, a well-studied system of central importance for nitrogen-source regulation of transcription in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. To resolve ambiguities in the network organization, we encoded a set of five interactions hypothesized in the literature into a set of 32 mathematical models, and employed Bayesian model selection to identify the most plausible set of interactions based on dynamic gene expression data. The top-ranking model was validated on newly generated GFP reporter dynamic data and was subsequently used to gain a better understanding of how yeast cells organize their transcriptional response to dynamic changes of nitrogen sources. Our work constitutes a necessary and important step towards obtaining a holistic view of the yeast nitrogen regulation mechanisms; on the computational side, it provides a demonstration of how powerful Monte Carlo techniques can be creatively combined and used to address the great challenges of large-scale dynamical system inference. PMID:26967983

  11. Signal-BNF: a Bayesian network fusing approach to predict signal peptides.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Zhi; Chen, Youying; Chen, Liping; Guo, Gongde; Fan, Yongxian; Kong, Xiangzeng

    2012-01-01

    A signal peptide is a short peptide chain that directs the transport of a protein and has become the crucial vehicle in finding new drugs or reprogramming cells for gene therapy. As the avalanche of new protein sequences generated in the postgenomic era, the challenge of identifying new signal sequences has become even more urgent and critical in biomedical engineering. In this paper, we propose a novel predictor called Signal-BNF to predict the N-terminal signal peptide as well as its cleavage site based on Bayesian reasoning network. Signal-BNF is formed by fusing the results of different Bayesian classifiers which used different feature datasets as its input through weighted voting system. Experiment results show that Signal-BNF is superior to the popular online predictors such as Signal-3L and PrediSi. Signal-BNF is featured by high prediction accuracy that may serve as a useful tool for further investigating many unclear details regarding the molecular mechanism of the zip code protein-sorting system in cells.

  12. Signal-BNF: A Bayesian Network Fusing Approach to Predict Signal Peptides

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Zhi; Chen, Youying; Chen, Liping; Guo, Gongde; Fan, Yongxian; Kong, Xiangzeng

    2012-01-01

    A signal peptide is a short peptide chain that directs the transport of a protein and has become the crucial vehicle in finding new drugs or reprogramming cells for gene therapy. As the avalanche of new protein sequences generated in the postgenomic era, the challenge of identifying new signal sequences has become even more urgent and critical in biomedical engineering. In this paper, we propose a novel predictor called Signal-BNF to predict the N-terminal signal peptide as well as its cleavage site based on Bayesian reasoning network. Signal-BNF is formed by fusing the results of different Bayesian classifiers which used different feature datasets as its input through weighted voting system. Experiment results show that Signal-BNF is superior to the popular online predictors such as Signal-3L and PrediSi. Signal-BNF is featured by high prediction accuracy that may serve as a useful tool for further investigating many unclear details regarding the molecular mechanism of the zip code protein-sorting system in cells. PMID:23118510

  13. Bayesian model selection applied to artificial neural networks used for water resources modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kingston, Greer B.; Maier, Holger R.; Lambert, Martin F.

    2008-04-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be extremely valuable tools in the field of water resources engineering. However, one of the most difficult tasks in developing an ANN is determining the optimum level of complexity required to model a given problem, as there is no formal systematic model selection method. This paper presents a Bayesian model selection (BMS) method for ANNs that provides an objective approach for comparing models of varying complexity in order to select the most appropriate ANN structure. The approach uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior simulations to estimate the evidence in favor of competing models and, in this study, three known methods for doing this are compared in terms of their suitability for being incorporated into the proposed BMS framework for ANNs. However, it is acknowledged that it can be particularly difficult to accurately estimate the evidence of ANN models. Therefore, the proposed BMS approach for ANNs incorporates a further check of the evidence results by inspecting the marginal posterior distributions of the hidden-to-output layer weights, which unambiguously indicate any redundancies in the hidden layer nodes. The fact that this check is available is one of the greatest advantages of the proposed approach over conventional model selection methods, which do not provide such a test and instead rely on the modeler's subjective choice of selection criterion. The advantages of a total Bayesian approach to ANN development, including training and model selection, are demonstrated on two synthetic and one real world water resources case study.

  14. A Bayesian framework for cell-level protein network analysis for multivariate proteomics image data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovacheva, Violet N.; Sirinukunwattana, Korsuk; Rajpoot, Nasir M.

    2014-03-01

    The recent development of multivariate imaging techniques, such as the Toponome Imaging System (TIS), has facilitated the analysis of multiple co-localisation of proteins. This could hold the key to understanding complex phenomena such as protein-protein interaction in cancer. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework for cell level network analysis allowing the identification of several protein pairs having significantly higher co-expression levels in cancerous tissue samples when compared to normal colon tissue. It involves segmenting the DAPI-labeled image into cells and determining the cell phenotypes according to their protein-protein dependence profile. The cells are phenotyped using Gaussian Bayesian hierarchical clustering (GBHC) after feature selection is performed. The phenotypes are then analysed using Difference in Sums of Weighted cO-dependence Profiles (DiSWOP), which detects differences in the co-expression patterns of protein pairs. We demonstrate that the pairs highlighted by the proposed framework have high concordance with recent results using a different phenotyping method. This demonstrates that the results are independent of the clustering method used. In addition, the highlighted protein pairs are further analysed via protein interaction pathway databases and by considering the localization of high protein-protein dependence within individual samples. This suggests that the proposed approach could identify potentially functional protein complexes active in cancer progression and cell differentiation.

  15. Bayesian network as an aid for Food Chain Information use for meat inspection.

    PubMed

    Lupo, C; Le Bouquin, S; Balaine, L; Michel, V; Péraste, J; Petetin, I; Colin, P; Jouffe, L; Chauvin, C

    2013-04-01

    Current ante mortem inspection involves a check of relevant Food Chain Information (FCI) transmitted by the farmer to the slaughterhouse on a regulatory FCI document. Since 2000, a farm sanitary form with FCI data has been used for all consignments of broiler chickens in France. However, the FCI needs to be standardized for the collection and interpretation of data. A study was conducted to develop an expert system, undertaken to elaborate on a simple decision support system capable of predicting whether the flocks will present a high condemnation risk, based on FCI. For this, 'optimal' (i.e. on-farm survey data) and 'worthy' (i.e. farmers' declaration on existing farm sanitary form) data quality conditions were considered to estimate the lower and upper reference bounds of the confidence that the decision-makers could have in such a tool. Chicken broiler flocks (404) were randomly selected in 15 slaughterhouses located in Western France in 2005. Condemnation proportion and farm sanitary form were collected for each selected flock. Information about health history and technical performances were also specifically collected on farm. Condemnation risk category was modelled from the on-farm collected information, using a Bayesian network and assuming this represented the optimal data quality conditions. Corresponding information declared by the farmer on the existing farm sanitary form was secondly used in the network to evaluate the impact of the uncertainty of such information on the condemnation classification obtained with the expert system. The learnt Bayesian network had 16 explanatory variables pertaining to technical characteristics and sanitary features of the flock. Using a threshold of 1% of condemned carcases to define high risk, the network sensitivity and specificity were 55% and 93%, respectively, corresponding to positive and negative predictive values of 70% and 87%. When declared existing information was used in the network, the sensitivity and

  16. A Measure of Systems Engineering Effectiveness in Government Acquisition of Complex Information Systems: A Bayesian Belief Network-Based Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doskey, Steven Craig

    2014-01-01

    This research presents an innovative means of gauging Systems Engineering effectiveness through a Systems Engineering Relative Effectiveness Index (SE REI) model. The SE REI model uses a Bayesian Belief Network to map causal relationships in government acquisitions of Complex Information Systems (CIS), enabling practitioners to identify and…

  17. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors-abstract

    EPA Science Inventory

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity but MoA classification in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity mode of action using a recently published dataset contain...

  18. A multinomial logit model-Bayesian network hybrid approach for driver injury severity analyses in rear-end crashes.

    PubMed

    Chen, Cong; Zhang, Guohui; Tarefder, Rafiqul; Ma, Jianming; Wei, Heng; Guan, Hongzhi

    2015-07-01

    Rear-end crash is one of the most common types of traffic crashes in the U.S. A good understanding of its characteristics and contributing factors is of practical importance. Previously, both multinomial Logit models and Bayesian network methods have been used in crash modeling and analysis, respectively, although each of them has its own application restrictions and limitations. In this study, a hybrid approach is developed to combine multinomial logit models and Bayesian network methods for comprehensively analyzing driver injury severities in rear-end crashes based on state-wide crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011. A multinomial logit model is developed to investigate and identify significant contributing factors for rear-end crash driver injury severities classified into three categories: no injury, injury, and fatality. Then, the identified significant factors are utilized to establish a Bayesian network to explicitly formulate statistical associations between injury severity outcomes and explanatory attributes, including driver behavior, demographic features, vehicle factors, geometric and environmental characteristics, etc. The test results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid approach performs reasonably well. The Bayesian network reference analyses indicate that the factors including truck-involvement, inferior lighting conditions, windy weather conditions, the number of vehicles involved, etc. could significantly increase driver injury severities in rear-end crashes. The developed methodology and estimation results provide insights for developing effective countermeasures to reduce rear-end crash injury severities and improve traffic system safety performance.

  19. Assessment of Matrix Multiplication Learning with a Rule-Based Analytical Model--"A Bayesian Network Representation"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Zhidong

    2016-01-01

    This study explored an alternative assessment procedure to examine learning trajectories of matrix multiplication. It took rule-based analytical and cognitive task analysis methods specifically to break down operation rules for a given matrix multiplication. Based on the analysis results, a hierarchical Bayesian network, an assessment model,…

  20. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors-abstract

    EPA Science Inventory

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity but MoA classification in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity mode of action using a recently published dataset contain...

  1. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors

    EPA Science Inventory

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently pu...

  2. Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems. In particular, we consider the development of large-scale Bayesian networks by composition. This compositional approach reflects how (often redundant) subsystems are architected to form systems such as electrical power systems. We develop high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems. The largest among these 24 Bayesian networks contains over 1,000 random variables. Another BN represents the real-world electrical power system ADAPT, which is representative of electrical power systems deployed in aerospace vehicles. In addition to demonstrating the scalability of the compositional approach, we briefly report on experimental results from the diagnostic competition DXC, where the ProADAPT team, using techniques discussed here, obtained the highest scores in both Tier 1 (among 9 international competitors) and Tier 2 (among 6 international competitors) of the industrial track. While we consider diagnosis of power systems specifically, we believe this work is relevant to other system health management problems, in particular in dependable systems such as aircraft and spacecraft. (See CASI ID 20100021910 for supplemental data disk.)

  3. A Measure of Systems Engineering Effectiveness in Government Acquisition of Complex Information Systems: A Bayesian Belief Network-Based Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doskey, Steven Craig

    2014-01-01

    This research presents an innovative means of gauging Systems Engineering effectiveness through a Systems Engineering Relative Effectiveness Index (SE REI) model. The SE REI model uses a Bayesian Belief Network to map causal relationships in government acquisitions of Complex Information Systems (CIS), enabling practitioners to identify and…

  4. Bayesian Network Models for Local Dependence among Observable Outcome Variables. Research Report. ETS RR-06-36

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almond, Russell G.; Mulder, Joris; Hemat, Lisa A.; Yan, Duanli

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian network models offer a large degree of flexibility for modeling dependence among observables (item outcome variables) from the same task that may be dependent. This paper explores four design patterns for modeling locally dependent observations from the same task: (1) No context--Ignore dependence among observables; (2) Compensatory…

  5. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors

    EPA Science Inventory

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently pu...

  6. A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

    2017-07-01

    An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

  7. Online state-of-health estimation of lithium-ion batteries using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Zhiwei; Gao, Mingyu; Ma, Guojin; Liu, Yuanyuan; Chen, Sanxin

    2014-12-01

    Li-ion batteries are widely used in energy storage systems, electric vehicles, communication systems, etc. The State of Health (SOH) of batteries is of great importance to the safety of these systems. This paper presents a novel online method for the estimation of the SOH of Lithium (Li)-ion batteries based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). The structure of the DBN model is built according to the experience of experts, with the state of charges used as hidden states and the terminal voltages used as observations in the DBN. Parameters of the DBN model are learned based on training data collected through Li-ion battery aging experiments. A forward algorithm is applied for the inference of the DBN model in order to estimate the SOH in real-time. Experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and efficient in estimating the SOH of Li-ion batteries.

  8. A Bayesian network coding scheme for annotating biomedical information presented to genetic counseling clients.

    PubMed

    Green, Nancy

    2005-04-01

    We developed a Bayesian network coding scheme for annotating biomedical content in layperson-oriented clinical genetics documents. The coding scheme supports the representation of probabilistic and causal relationships among concepts in this domain, at a high enough level of abstraction to capture commonalities among genetic processes and their relationship to health. We are using the coding scheme to annotate a corpus of genetic counseling patient letters as part of the requirements analysis and knowledge acquisition phase of a natural language generation project. This paper describes the coding scheme and presents an evaluation of intercoder reliability for its tag set. In addition to giving examples of use of the coding scheme for analysis of discourse and linguistic features in this genre, we suggest other uses for it in analysis of layperson-oriented text and dialogue in medical communication.

  9. Evaluation of the Diagnostic Power of Thermography in Breast Cancer Using Bayesian Network Classifiers

    PubMed Central

    Nicandro, Cruz-Ramírez; Efrén, Mezura-Montes; María Yaneli, Ameca-Alducin; Enrique, Martín-Del-Campo-Mena; Héctor Gabriel, Acosta-Mesa; Nancy, Pérez-Castro; Alejandro, Guerra-Hernández; Guillermo de Jesús, Hoyos-Rivera; Rocío Erandi, Barrientos-Martínez

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of death among women worldwide. There are a number of techniques used for diagnosing this disease: mammography, ultrasound, and biopsy, among others. Each of these has well-known advantages and disadvantages. A relatively new method, based on the temperature a tumor may produce, has recently been explored: thermography. In this paper, we will evaluate the diagnostic power of thermography in breast cancer using Bayesian network classifiers. We will show how the information provided by the thermal image can be used in order to characterize patients suspected of having cancer. Our main contribution is the proposal of a score, based on the aforementioned information, that could help distinguish sick patients from healthy ones. Our main results suggest the potential of this technique in such a goal but also show its main limitations that have to be overcome to consider it as an effective diagnosis complementary tool. PMID:23762182

  10. Assessing land-use impacts on viability of intermountain trouts using Bayesian belief networks

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, D.C.

    1994-12-31

    Many salmonid populations of the intermountain region of North America are threatened by habitat degradation resulting from changing land-use practices. Public lands managed by the USDA Forest Service and USDI Bureau of Land Management comprise a significant portion of the remaining suitable habitat. Public land-use decisions must consider the potential effects on sensitive species. A computer-aided viability assessment model is presented which can help anticipate impacts of management actions on resident trout populations. Central to this system is a Bayesian belief network that links physical habitat characteristics directly to reproduction and survival parameters of a population viability model. Recognizing that such linkages are imprecise and knowledge is uncertain, this system provides probabilistic risk assessments of land-use impacts. Preliminary results suggest that the principal threats to population viability arise from a combination of chronic habitat degradation and increased risks of major or catastrophic disturbances.

  11. Bayesian network based on a fault tree and its application in diesel engine fault diagnosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Gang; Zheng, Shengguo; Cao, Longhan

    2005-12-01

    This paper discusses the faults diagnosis of diesel engine systems. This research aims at the optimization of the diagnosis results. Inspired by Bayesian Network (BN) possessing good performance in solving uncertainty problems, a new method was proposed for establishing a BN of diesel engine faults quickly, and diagnosing faults exactly. This method consisted of two stages,namely the establishment of a BN model, and a faults diagnosis of the diesel engine system using that BN mode. For the purpose of establishing the BN, a new algorithm, which can establish a BN quickly and easily, is presented. The Fault Tree (FT) diagnosis model of the diesel engine system was established first. Then it was transformed it into a BN by using our algorithm. Finally, the BN was used to diagnose the faults of a diesel engine system. Experimental results show that the diagnosis speed is increased and the accuracy is improved.

  12. Development of Bayesian network models for risk-based ship design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konovessis, Dimitris; Cai, Wenkui; Vassalos, Dracos

    2013-06-01

    In the past fifteen years, the attention of ship safety treatment as an objective rather than a constraint has started to sweep through the whole maritime industry. The risk-based ship design (RBD) methodology, advocating systematic integration of risk assessment within the conventional design process has started to takeoff. Despite this wide recognition and increasing popularity, important factors that could potentially undermine the quality of the results come from both quantitative and qualitative aspects during the risk assessment process. This paper details a promising solution by developing a formalized methodology for risk assessment through effective storing and processing of historical data combined with data generated through first-principle approaches. This method should help to generate appropriate risk models in the selected platform (Bayesian networks) which can be employed for decision making at design stage.

  13. Technical note: An R package for fitting Bayesian regularized neural networks with applications in animal breeding.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Rodríguez, P; Gianola, D; Weigel, K A; Rosa, G J M; Crossa, J

    2013-08-01

    In recent years, several statistical models have been developed for predicting genetic values for complex traits using information on dense molecular markers, pedigrees, or both. These models include, among others, the Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN) that have been widely used in prediction problems in other fields of application and, more recently, for genome-enabled prediction. The R package described here (brnn) implements BRNN models and extends these to include both additive and dominance effects. The implementation takes advantage of multicore architectures via a parallel computing approach using openMP (Open Multiprocessing) for the computations. This note briefly describes the classes of models that can be fitted using the brnn package, and it also illustrates its use through several real examples.

  14. Adaptive modelling of gene regulatory network using Bayesian information criterion-guided sparse regression approach.

    PubMed

    Shi, Ming; Shen, Weiming; Wang, Hong-Qiang; Chong, Yanwen

    2016-12-01

    Inferring gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from microarray expression data are an important but challenging issue in systems biology. In this study, the authors propose a Bayesian information criterion (BIC)-guided sparse regression approach for GRN reconstruction. This approach can adaptively model GRNs by optimising the l1-norm regularisation of sparse regression based on a modified version of BIC. The use of the regularisation strategy ensures the inferred GRNs to be as sparse as natural, while the modified BIC allows incorporating prior knowledge on expression regulation and thus avoids the overestimation of expression regulators as usual. Especially, the proposed method provides a clear interpretation of combinatorial regulations of gene expression by optimally extracting regulation coordination for a given target gene. Experimental results on both simulation data and real-world microarray data demonstrate the competent performance of discovering regulatory relationships in GRN reconstruction.

  15. Analysis of traffic accident injury severity on Spanish rural highways using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    de Oña, Juan; Mujalli, Randa Oqab; Calvo, Francisco J

    2011-01-01

    Several different factors contribute to injury severity in traffic accidents, such as driver characteristics, highway characteristics, vehicle characteristics, accidents characteristics, and atmospheric factors. This paper shows the possibility of using Bayesian Networks (BNs) to classify traffic accidents according to their injury severity. BNs are capable of making predictions without the need for pre assumptions and are used to make graphic representations of complex systems with interrelated components. This paper presents an analysis of 1536 accidents on rural highways in Spain, where 18 variables representing the aforementioned contributing factors were used to build 3 different BNs that classified the severity of accidents into slightly injured and killed or severely injured. The variables that best identify the factors that are associated with a killed or seriously injured accident (accident type, driver age, lighting and number of injuries) were identified by inference. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Evaluation of the diagnostic power of thermography in breast cancer using Bayesian network classifiers.

    PubMed

    Nicandro, Cruz-Ramírez; Efrén, Mezura-Montes; María Yaneli, Ameca-Alducin; Enrique, Martín-Del-Campo-Mena; Héctor Gabriel, Acosta-Mesa; Nancy, Pérez-Castro; Alejandro, Guerra-Hernández; Guillermo de Jesús, Hoyos-Rivera; Rocío Erandi, Barrientos-Martínez

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of death among women worldwide. There are a number of techniques used for diagnosing this disease: mammography, ultrasound, and biopsy, among others. Each of these has well-known advantages and disadvantages. A relatively new method, based on the temperature a tumor may produce, has recently been explored: thermography. In this paper, we will evaluate the diagnostic power of thermography in breast cancer using Bayesian network classifiers. We will show how the information provided by the thermal image can be used in order to characterize patients suspected of having cancer. Our main contribution is the proposal of a score, based on the aforementioned information, that could help distinguish sick patients from healthy ones. Our main results suggest the potential of this technique in such a goal but also show its main limitations that have to be overcome to consider it as an effective diagnosis complementary tool.

  17. U-BASE: General Bayesian Network-Driven Context Prediction for Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Kun Chang; Cho, Heeryon; Lee, Sunyoung

    We propose a new type of ubiquitous decision support system that is powered by a General Bayesian Network (GBN). Because complicated decision support problems are plagued by complexities when interpreting causal relationships among decision variables, GBNs have shown excellent decision support competence because of their flexible structure, which allows them to extract appropriate and robust causal relationships among target variables and related explanatory variables. The potential of GBNs, however, has not been sufficiently investigated in the field of ubiquitous decision support. Hence, we propose a new type of ubiquitous decision support mechanism called U-BASE, which uses a GBN for context prediction in order to improve decision support. To illustrate the validity of the proposed decision support mechanism, we collected a set of contextual data from college students and applied U-BASE to induce useful and robust results. The practical implications are fully discussed, and issues for future studies are suggested.

  18. Inferring Alcoholism SNPs and Regulatory Chemical Compounds Based on Ensemble Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Chen, Huan; Sun, Jiatong; Jiang, Hong; Wang, Xianyue; Wu, Lingxiang; Wu, Wei; Wang, Qh

    2016-12-20

    The disturbance of consciousness is one of the most common symptoms of those have alcoholism and may cause disability and mortality. Previous studies indicated that several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) increase the susceptibility of alcoholism. In this study, we utilized the Ensemble Bayesian Network (EBN) method to identify causal SNPs of alcoholism based on the verified GAW14 data. Thirteen out of eighteen SNPs directly connected with alcoholism were found concordance with potential risk regions of alcoholism in OMIM database. As a number of SNPs were found contributing to alteration on gene expression, known as expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs), we further sought to identify chemical compounds acting as regulators of alcoholism genes captured by causal SNPs. Chloroprene and valproic acid were identified as the expression regulators for genes C11orf66 and SALL3 which were captured by alcoholism SNPs, respectively.

  19. Predicting human immunodeficiency virus inhibitors using multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers.

    PubMed

    Borchani, Hanen; Bielza, Concha; Toro, Carlos; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2013-03-01

    Our aim is to use multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers in order to predict the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors given an input set of respective resistance mutations that an HIV patient carries. Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models especially designed to solve multi-dimensional classification problems, where each input instance in the data set has to be assigned simultaneously to multiple output class variables that are not necessarily binary. In this paper, we introduce a new method, named MB-MBC, for learning MBCs from data by determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm. Our method is applied to both reverse transcriptase and protease data sets obtained from the Stanford HIV-1 database. Regarding the prediction of antiretroviral combination therapies, the experimental study shows promising results in terms of classification accuracy compared with state-of-the-art MBC learning algorithms. For reverse transcriptase inhibitors, we get 71% and 11% in mean and global accuracy, respectively; while for protease inhibitors, we get more than 84% and 31% in mean and global accuracy, respectively. In addition, the analysis of MBC graphical structures lets us gain insight into both known and novel interactions between reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors and their respective resistance mutations. MB-MBC algorithm is a valuable tool to analyze the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors prediction problem and to discover interactions within and between these two classes of inhibitors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Multi-dimensional classification of GABAergic interneurons with Bayesian network-modeled label uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Mihaljević, Bojan; Bielza, Concha; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Interneuron classification is an important and long-debated topic in neuroscience. A recent study provided a data set of digitally reconstructed interneurons classified by 42 leading neuroscientists according to a pragmatic classification scheme composed of five categorical variables, namely, of the interneuron type and four features of axonal morphology. From this data set we now learned a model which can classify interneurons, on the basis of their axonal morphometric parameters, into these five descriptive variables simultaneously. Because of differences in opinion among the neuroscientists, especially regarding neuronal type, for many interneurons we lacked a unique, agreed-upon classification, which we could use to guide model learning. Instead, we guided model learning with a probability distribution over the neuronal type and the axonal features, obtained, for each interneuron, from the neuroscientists' classification choices. We conveniently encoded such probability distributions with Bayesian networks, calling them label Bayesian networks (LBNs), and developed a method to predict them. This method predicts an LBN by forming a probabilistic consensus among the LBNs of the interneurons most similar to the one being classified. We used 18 axonal morphometric parameters as predictor variables, 13 of which we introduce in this paper as quantitative counterparts to the categorical axonal features. We were able to accurately predict interneuronal LBNs. Furthermore, when extracting crisp (i.e., non-probabilistic) predictions from the predicted LBNs, our method outperformed related work on interneuron classification. Our results indicate that our method is adequate for multi-dimensional classification of interneurons with probabilistic labels. Moreover, the introduced morphometric parameters are good predictors of interneuron type and the four features of axonal morphology and thus may serve as objective counterparts to the subjective, categorical axonal features.

  1. Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains.

    PubMed

    Holt, J; Leach, A W; Johnson, S; Tu, D M; Nhu, D T; Anh, N T; Quinlan, M M; Whittle, P J L; Mengersen, K; Mumford, J D

    2017-07-13

    The production of an agricultural commodity involves a sequence of processes: planting/growing, harvesting, sorting/grading, postharvest treatment, packing, and exporting. A Bayesian network has been developed to represent the level of potential infestation of an agricultural commodity by a specified pest along an agricultural production chain. It reflects the dependency of this infestation on the predicted level of pest challenge, the anticipated susceptibility of the commodity to the pest, the level of impact from pest control measures as designed, and any variation from that due to uncertainty in measure efficacy. The objective of this Bayesian network is to facilitate agreement between national governments of the exporters and importers on a set of phytosanitary measures to meet specific phytosanitary measure requirements to achieve target levels of protection against regulated pests. The model can be used to compare the performance of different combinations of measures under different scenarios of pest challenge, making use of available measure performance data. A case study is presented using a model developed for a fruit fly pest on dragon fruit in Vietnam; the model parameters and results are illustrative and do not imply a particular level of fruit fly infestation of these exports; rather, they provide the most likely, alternative, or worst-case scenarios of the impact of measures. As a means to facilitate agreement for trade, the model provides a framework to support communication between exporters and importers about any differences in perceptions of the risk reduction achieved by pest control measures deployed during the commodity production chain. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Multi-dimensional classification of GABAergic interneurons with Bayesian network-modeled label uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Mihaljević, Bojan; Bielza, Concha; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Interneuron classification is an important and long-debated topic in neuroscience. A recent study provided a data set of digitally reconstructed interneurons classified by 42 leading neuroscientists according to a pragmatic classification scheme composed of five categorical variables, namely, of the interneuron type and four features of axonal morphology. From this data set we now learned a model which can classify interneurons, on the basis of their axonal morphometric parameters, into these five descriptive variables simultaneously. Because of differences in opinion among the neuroscientists, especially regarding neuronal type, for many interneurons we lacked a unique, agreed-upon classification, which we could use to guide model learning. Instead, we guided model learning with a probability distribution over the neuronal type and the axonal features, obtained, for each interneuron, from the neuroscientists' classification choices. We conveniently encoded such probability distributions with Bayesian networks, calling them label Bayesian networks (LBNs), and developed a method to predict them. This method predicts an LBN by forming a probabilistic consensus among the LBNs of the interneurons most similar to the one being classified. We used 18 axonal morphometric parameters as predictor variables, 13 of which we introduce in this paper as quantitative counterparts to the categorical axonal features. We were able to accurately predict interneuronal LBNs. Furthermore, when extracting crisp (i.e., non-probabilistic) predictions from the predicted LBNs, our method outperformed related work on interneuron classification. Our results indicate that our method is adequate for multi-dimensional classification of interneurons with probabilistic labels. Moreover, the introduced morphometric parameters are good predictors of interneuron type and the four features of axonal morphology and thus may serve as objective counterparts to the subjective, categorical axonal features

  3. Application of Bayesian Decision Networks for sustainable groundwater resources management in semi-arid regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohajerani, Hadis; Casper, Markus; Kholghi, Majid; Mosaedi, Abolfazl; Farmani, Raziyeh; Saadoddin, Amir; Meftah Halaghi, Mehdi

    2017-04-01

    This paper presents management of groundwater resource using a Bayesian Decision Network (BDN). The Kordkooy region in North East of Iran has been selected as study area. The region has been divided to three parts based on Transmissivity (T) and Electrical Conductivity (EC) values. The BDN parameters (prior probabilities and Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) have been identified for each of the three zones. Three groups of management scenarios have been developed based on the two decision variables including "Crop pattern" and "Domestic water demand" across the three zones of the study area: 1) status quo management for all three zones representing current conditions. 2) the effect of change in cropping pattern on management endpoints and 3) the effect of increasing domestic water demand on management endpoints in the future. The outcomes arising from implementing each scenario have been predicted using the BDN for each of the zones. Results reveal that probability of drawdown in groundwater levels of southern areas is relatively high compared with other zones. Groundwater withdrawal from northern and northwestern areas of the study area should be limited due to the groundwater quality problems associated with shallow groundwater of these two zones. The ability of the Bayesian Decision Network to take into account key uncertainties in natural resources and performing a meaningful analysis in cases where there is not vast amount of information and observed data available -even based partly on expert opinion- emphasizes the advantage of this approach in groundwater resources management process, as limited data availability was a serious problem faced by groundwater resources of the study area.

  4. Hybrid ICA-Bayesian Network approach reveals distinct effective connectivity differences in schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Kim, D.; Burge, J.; Lane, T.; Pearlson, G. D; Kiehl, K. A; Calhoun, V. D.

    2008-01-01

    We utilized a discrete dynamic Bayesian network (dDBN) approach (Burge et al., 2007) to determine differences in brain regions between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls on a measure of effective connectivity, termed the approximate conditional likelihood score (ACL) (Burge and Lane, 2005). The ACL score represents a class-discriminative measure of effective connectivity by measuring the relative likelihood of the correlation between brain regions in one group versus another. The algorithm is capable of finding non-linear relationships between brain regions because it uses discrete rather than continuous values and attempts to model temporal relationships with a first-order Markov and stationary assumption constraint (Papoulis, 1991). Since Bayesian networks are overly sensitive to noisy data, we introduced an independent component analysis (ICA) filtering approach that attempted to reduce the noise found in fMRI data by unmixing the raw datasets into a set of independent spatial component maps. Components that represented noise were removed and the remaining components reconstructed into the dimensions of the original fMRI datasets. We applied the dDBN algorithm to a group of 35 patients with schizophrenia and 35 matched healthy controls using an ICA filtered and unfiltered approach. We determined that filtering the data significantly improved the magnitude of the ACL score. Patients showed the greatest ACL scores in several regions, most markedly the cerebellar vermis and hemispheres. Our findings suggest that schizophrenia patients exhibit weaker connectivity than healthy controls in multiple regions, including bilateral temporal and frontal cortices, plus cerebellum during an auditory paradigm. PMID:18602482

  5. Bayesian belief network analysis applied to determine the progression of temporomandibular disorders using MRI.

    PubMed

    Iwasaki, H

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the applicability of a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to MR images to diagnose temporomandibular disorders (TMDs). Our aim was to determine the progression of TMDs, focusing on how each finding affects the other. We selected 1.5-T MRI findings (33 variables) and diagnoses (bone changes and disc displacement) of patients with TMD from 2007 to 2008. There were a total of 295 cases with 590 sides of temporomandibular joints (TMJs). The data were modified according to the research diagnostic criteria of TMD. We compared the accuracy of the BBN using 11 algorithms (necessary path condition, path condition, greedy search-and-score with Bayesian information criterion, Chow-Liu tree, Rebane-Pearl poly tree, tree augmented naïve Bayes model, maximum log likelihood, Akaike information criterion, minimum description length, K2 and C4.5), a multiple regression analysis and an artificial neural network using resubstitution validation and 10-fold cross-validation. There were 191 TMJs (32.4%) with bone changes and 340 (57.6%) with articular disc displacement. The BBN path condition algorithm using resubstitution validation and 10-fold cross-validation was >99% accurate. However, the main advantage of a BBN is that it can represent the causal relationships between different findings and assign conditional probabilities, which can then be used to interpret the progression of TMD. Osteoarthritic bone changes progressed from condyle to articular fossa and finally to mandibular bone contours. Disc displacement was directly related to severe bone changes. Early bone changes were not directly related to disc displacement. TMJ functional factors (condylar translation, bony space and disc form) and age mediated between bone changes and disc displacement.

  6. Bayesian belief network analysis applied to determine the progression of temporomandibular disorders using MRI

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: This study investigated the applicability of a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to MR images to diagnose temporomandibular disorders (TMDs). Our aim was to determine the progression of TMDs, focusing on how each finding affects the other. Methods: We selected 1.5-T MRI findings (33 variables) and diagnoses (bone changes and disc displacement) of patients with TMD from 2007 to 2008. There were a total of 295 cases with 590 sides of temporomandibular joints (TMJs). The data were modified according to the research diagnostic criteria of TMD. We compared the accuracy of the BBN using 11 algorithms (necessary path condition, path condition, greedy search-and-score with Bayesian information criterion, Chow–Liu tree, Rebane–Pearl poly tree, tree augmented naïve Bayes model, maximum log likelihood, Akaike information criterion, minimum description length, K2 and C4.5), a multiple regression analysis and an artificial neural network using resubstitution validation and 10-fold cross-validation. Results: There were 191 TMJs (32.4%) with bone changes and 340 (57.6%) with articular disc displacement. The BBN path condition algorithm using resubstitution validation and 10-fold cross-validation was >99% accurate. However, the main advantage of a BBN is that it can represent the causal relationships between different findings and assign conditional probabilities, which can then be used to interpret the progression of TMD. Conclusions: Osteoarthritic bone changes progressed from condyle to articular fossa and finally to mandibular bone contours. Disc displacement was directly related to severe bone changes. Early bone changes were not directly related to disc displacement. TMJ functional factors (condylar translation, bony space and disc form) and age mediated between bone changes and disc displacement. PMID:25472616

  7. Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host-pathogen system.

    PubMed

    Bower, D S; Mengersen, K; Alford, R A; Schwarzkopf, L

    2017-05-02

    Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease-driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host-pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for

  8. Bayesian experimental design of tracer studies to monitor wastewater leakage from sewer networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rieckermann, J.; Borsuk, M. E.; Sydler, D.; Gujer, W.; Reichert, P.

    2010-08-01

    Despite more than a decade of research, the magnitude of wastewater leakage from defective sewer systems into groundwater supplies is still largely unknown, partly because reliable measurement methods are lacking. Although recently suggested in-sewer tracer studies present a promising solution, it is unclear how to optimally design such studies in network settings. In this study we present a formal experimental design procedure, which uses Bayesian data analysis to improve the diagnosis of sewer leakage by combining tracer test data with prior knowledge on network topology and condition. From a simulation study, we show that (1) if a single sewer section is expected to have high leakage, that section should be distinguished in measurement layouts through isolated tests or appropriate overlapping of multiple tests; (2) if multiple sections are expected to have high leakage, layouts with tests that cover more than one high-leakage section should be avoided; and (3) if a robust experimental design is desired, a balanced layout of tests that overlap multiple sections of high leakage, yet minimizes stretch length, should be chosen. This design will have the additional benefit of inducing covariance in the posterior distribution of exfiltration estimates, which can be used to advantage in subsequent studies. We apply these guidelines to a case study of a catchment in Zurich, Switzerland, and find that optimal layout design can improve the anticipated gain of information substantially relative to designs based on practical considerations alone. Remaining concerns regarding the procedure include (1) the generally poor understanding of the mechanisms governing sewer leakage, which can hamper reliable prior information on exfiltration; (2) the currently low measurement precision of sewer tracer studies, which might only allow for the detection of large leaks; and (3) the need for numerical implementation of the Bayesian inference procedure, which requires careful tuning and

  9. Bayesian spatial joint modeling of traffic crashes on an urban road network.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Qiang; Huang, Helai

    2014-06-01

    This study proposes a Bayesian spatial joint model of crash prediction including both road segments and intersections located in an urban road network, through which the spatial correlations between heterogeneous types of entities could be considered. A road network in Hillsborough, Florida, with crash, road, and traffic characteristics data for a three-year period was selected in order to compare the proposed joint model with three site-level crash prediction models, that is, the Poisson, negative binomial (NB), and conditional autoregressive (CAR) models. According to the results, the CAR and Joint models outperform the Poisson and NB models in terms of model fitting and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering cross-entity spatial correlations. Although the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance of the CAR and Joint models are equivalent in this case study, spatial correlations between segments and the connected intersections are found to be more significant than those solely between segments or between intersections, which supports the employment of the Joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling.

  10. A Bayesian Framework That Integrates Heterogeneous Data for Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks

    PubMed Central

    Santra, Tapesh

    2014-01-01

    Reconstruction of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental data is a fundamental challenge in systems biology. A number of computational approaches have been developed to infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles. However, expression profiles alone are proving to be insufficient for inferring GRN topologies with reasonable accuracy. Recently, it has been shown that integration of external data sources (such as gene and protein sequence information, gene ontology data, protein–protein interactions) with mRNA expression profiles may increase the reliability of the inference process. Here, I propose a new approach that incorporates transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) and physical protein interactions (PPI) among transcription factors (TFs) in a Bayesian variable selection (BVS) algorithm which can infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles subjected to genetic perturbations. Using real experimental data, I show that the integration of TFBS and PPI data with mRNA expression profiles leads to significantly more accurate networks than those inferred from expression profiles alone. Additionally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with a series of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression-based network inference methods that can also incorporate prior knowledge in the inference framework. The results of this comparison suggest that BVS can outperform LASSO regression-based method in some circumstances. PMID:25152886

  11. Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion and Excursion Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Lawrence L.

    2014-01-01

    In a previous work, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) event data was conducted to ascertain the relevance of this data to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to several of the AvSP top ten TC and identified numerous primary causes and contributing factors of RI events. The statistical analysis served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events, also previously reported. Through literature searches and data analysis, this RI event network has now been extended to also model runway excursion (RE) events. These RI and RE event networks have been further modified and vetted by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel. The combined system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI and RE events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of runway safety incidents/accidents, and to improve runway safety in general. The development and structure of the BBN for both RI and RE events are documented in this paper.

  12. Bayesian prediction of earthquake network based on space-time influence domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ya; Zhao, Hai; He, Xuan; Pei, Fan-Dong; Li, Guang-Guang

    2016-03-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the conditional dependencies among different events, which are expressed by conditional probability. Scientists have already investigated the seismic activities by using BNs. Recently, earthquake network is used as a novel methodology to analyze the relationships among the earthquake events. In this paper, we propose a way to predict earthquake from a new perspective. The BN is constructed after processing, which is derived from the earthquake network based on space-time influence domain. And then, the BN parameters are learnt by using the cases which are designed from the seismic data in the period between 00:00:00 on January 1, 1992 and 00:00:00 on January 1, 2012. At last, predictions are done for the data in the period between 00:00:00 on January 1, 2012 and 00:00:00 on January 1, 2015 combining the BN with the parameters. The results show that the success rate of the prediction including delayed prediction is about 65%. It is also discovered that the predictions for some nodes have high rate of accuracy under investigation.

  13. An unbiased Bayesian approach to functional connectomics implicates social-communication networks in autism.

    PubMed

    Venkataraman, Archana; Duncan, James S; Yang, Daniel Y-J; Pelphrey, Kevin A

    2015-01-01

    Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) studies reveal a complex pattern of hyper- and hypo-connectivity in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Whereas rsfMRI findings tend to implicate the default mode network and subcortical areas in ASD, task fMRI and behavioral experiments point to social dysfunction as a unifying impairment of the disorder. Here, we leverage a novel Bayesian framework for whole-brain functional connectomics that aggregates population differences in connectivity to localize a subset of foci that are most affected by ASD. Our approach is entirely data-driven and does not impose spatial constraints on the region foci or dictate the trajectory of altered functional pathways. We apply our method to data from the openly shared Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) and pinpoint two intrinsic functional networks that distinguish ASD patients from typically developing controls. One network involves foci in the right temporal pole, left posterior cingulate cortex, left supramarginal gyrus, and left middle temporal gyrus. Automated decoding of this network by the Neurosynth meta-analytic database suggests high-level concepts of "language" and "comprehension" as the likely functional correlates. The second network consists of the left banks of the superior temporal sulcus, right posterior superior temporal sulcus extending into temporo-parietal junction, and right middle temporal gyrus. Associated functionality of these regions includes "social" and "person". The abnormal pathways emanating from the above foci indicate that ASD patients simultaneously exhibit reduced long-range or inter-hemispheric connectivity and increased short-range or intra-hemispheric connectivity. Our findings reveal new insights into ASD and highlight possible neural mechanisms of the disorder.

  14. An unbiased Bayesian approach to functional connectomics implicates social-communication networks in autism

    PubMed Central

    Venkataraman, Archana; Duncan, James S.; Yang, Daniel Y.-J.; Pelphrey, Kevin A.

    2015-01-01

    Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) studies reveal a complex pattern of hyper- and hypo-connectivity in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Whereas rsfMRI findings tend to implicate the default mode network and subcortical areas in ASD, task fMRI and behavioral experiments point to social dysfunction as a unifying impairment of the disorder. Here, we leverage a novel Bayesian framework for whole-brain functional connectomics that aggregates population differences in connectivity to localize a subset of foci that are most affected by ASD. Our approach is entirely data-driven and does not impose spatial constraints on the region foci or dictate the trajectory of altered functional pathways. We apply our method to data from the openly shared Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) and pinpoint two intrinsic functional networks that distinguish ASD patients from typically developing controls. One network involves foci in the right temporal pole, left posterior cingulate cortex, left supramarginal gyrus, and left middle temporal gyrus. Automated decoding of this network by the Neurosynth meta-analytic database suggests high-level concepts of “language” and “comprehension” as the likely functional correlates. The second network consists of the left banks of the superior temporal sulcus, right posterior superior temporal sulcus extending into temporo-parietal junction, and right middle temporal gyrus. Associated functionality of these regions includes “social” and “person”. The abnormal pathways emanating from the above foci indicate that ASD patients simultaneously exhibit reduced long-range or inter-hemispheric connectivity and increased short-range or intra-hemispheric connectivity. Our findings reveal new insights into ASD and highlight possible neural mechanisms of the disorder. PMID:26106561

  15. Bayesian approaches to reverse engineer cellular systems: a simulation study on nonlinear Gaussian networks.

    PubMed

    Ferrazzi, Fulvia; Sebastiani, Paola; Ramoni, Marco F; Bellazzi, Riccardo

    2007-05-24

    Reverse engineering cellular networks is currently one of the most challenging problems in systems biology. Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) seem to be particularly suitable for inferring relationships between cellular variables from the analysis of time series measurements of mRNA or protein concentrations. As evaluating inference results on a real dataset is controversial, the use of simulated data has been proposed. However, DBN approaches that use continuous variables, thus avoiding the information loss associated with discretization, have not yet been extensively assessed, and most of the proposed approaches have dealt with linear Gaussian models. We propose a generalization of dynamic Gaussian networks to accommodate nonlinear dependencies between variables. As a benchmark dataset to test the new approach, we used data from a mathematical model of cell cycle control in budding yeast that realistically reproduces the complexity of a cellular system. We evaluated the ability of the networks to describe the dynamics of cellular systems and their precision in reconstructing the true underlying causal relationships between variables. We also tested the robustness of the results by analyzing the effect of noise on the data, and the impact of a different sampling time. The results confirmed that DBNs with Gaussian models can be effectively exploited for a first level analysis of data from complex cellular systems. The inferred models are parsimonious and have a satisfying goodness of fit. Furthermore, the networks not only offer a phenomenological description of the dynamics of cellular systems, but are also able to suggest hypotheses concerning the causal interactions between variables. The proposed nonlinear generalization of Gaussian models yielded models characterized by a slightly lower goodness of fit than the linear model, but a better ability to recover the true underlying connections between variables.

  16. Portfolios in Stochastic Local Search: Efficiently Computing Most Probable Explanations in Bayesian Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mengshoel, Ole J.; Roth, Dan; Wilkins, David C.

    2001-01-01

    Portfolio methods support the combination of different algorithms and heuristics, including stochastic local search (SLS) heuristics, and have been identified as a promising approach to solve computationally hard problems. While successful in experiments, theoretical foundations and analytical results for portfolio-based SLS heuristics are less developed. This article aims to improve the understanding of the role of portfolios of heuristics in SLS. We emphasize the problem of computing most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). Algorithmically, we discuss a portfolio-based SLS algorithm for MPE computation, Stochastic Greedy Search (SGS). SGS supports the integration of different initialization operators (or initialization heuristics) and different search operators (greedy and noisy heuristics), thereby enabling new analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we introduce a novel Markov chain model tailored to portfolio-based SLS algorithms including SGS, thereby enabling us to analytically form expected hitting time results that explain empirical run time results. For a specific BN, we show the benefit of using a homogenous initialization portfolio. To further illustrate the portfolio approach, we consider novel additive search heuristics for handling determinism in the form of zero entries in conditional probability tables in BNs. Our additive approach adds rather than multiplies probabilities when computing the utility of an explanation. We motivate the additive measure by studying the dramatic impact of zero entries in conditional probability tables on the number of zero-probability explanations, which again complicates the search process. We consider the relationship between MAXSAT and MPE, and show that additive utility (or gain) is a generalization, to the probabilistic setting, of MAXSAT utility (or gain) used in the celebrated GSAT and WalkSAT algorithms and their descendants. Utilizing our Markov chain framework, we show that

  17. Untangling the role of one-carbon metabolism in colorectal cancer risk: a comprehensive Bayesian network analysis

    PubMed Central

    Myte, Robin; Gylling, Björn; Häggström, Jenny; Schneede, Jörn; Magne Ueland, Per; Hallmans, Göran; Johansson, Ingegerd; Palmqvist, Richard; Van Guelpen, Bethany

    2017-01-01

    The role of one-carbon metabolism (1CM), particularly folate, in colorectal cancer (CRC) development has been extensively studied, but with inconclusive results. Given the complexity of 1CM, the conventional approach, investigating components individually, may be insufficient. We used a machine learning-based Bayesian network approach to study, simultaneously, 14 circulating one-carbon metabolites, 17 related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and several environmental factors in relation to CRC risk in 613 cases and 1190 controls from the prospective Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. The estimated networks corresponded largely to known biochemical relationships. Plasma concentrations of folate (direct), vitamin B6 (pyridoxal 5-phosphate) (inverse), and vitamin B2 (riboflavin) (inverse) had the strongest independent associations with CRC risk. Our study demonstrates the importance of incorporating B-vitamins in future studies of 1CM and CRC development, and the usefulness of Bayesian network learning for investigating complex biological systems in relation to disease. PMID:28233834

  18. Bayesian Inference for Time Trends in Parameter Values: Case Study for the Ageing PSA Network of the European Commission

    SciTech Connect

    Dana L. Kelly; Albert Malkhasyan

    2010-06-01

    There is a nearly ubiquitous assumption in PSA that parameter values are at least piecewise-constant in time. As a result, Bayesian inference tends to incorporate many years of plant operation, over which there have been significant changes in plant operational and maintenance practices, plant management, etc. These changes can cause significant changes in parameter values over time; however, failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework can mask these changes. Failure to question the assumption of constant parameter values, and failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework were noted as important issues in NUREG/CR-6813, performed for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards in 2003. That report noted that “industry lacks tools to perform time-trend analysis with Bayesian updating.” This paper describes an application of time-dependent Bayesian inference methods developed for the European Commission Ageing PSA Network. These methods utilize open-source software, implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The paper also illustrates the development of a generic prior distribution, which incorporates multiple sources of generic data via weighting factors that address differences in key influences, such as vendor, component boundaries, conditions of the operating environment, etc.

  19. Assessing Vermont's stream health and biological integrity using artificial neural networks and Bayesian methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzo, D. M.; Fytilis, N.; Stevens, L.

    2012-12-01

    Environmental managers are increasingly required to monitor and forecast long-term effects and vulnerability of biophysical systems to human-generated stresses. Ideally, a study involving both physical and biological assessments conducted concurrently (in space and time) could provide a better understanding of the mechanisms and complex relationships. However, costs and resources associated with monitoring the complex linkages between the physical, geomorphic and habitat conditions and the biological integrity of stream reaches are prohibitive. Researchers have used classification techniques to place individual streams and rivers into a broader spatial context (hydrologic or health condition). Such efforts require environmental managers to gather multiple forms of information - quantitative, qualitative and subjective. We research and develop a novel classification tool that combines self-organizing maps with a Naïve Bayesian classifier to direct resources to stream reaches most in need. The Vermont Agency of Natural Resources has developed and adopted protocols for physical stream geomorphic and habitat assessments throughout the state of Vermont. Separate from these assessments, the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation monitors the biological communities and the water quality in streams. Our initial hypothesis is that the geomorphic reach assessments and water quality data may be leveraged to reduce error and uncertainty associated with predictions of biological integrity and stream health. We test our hypothesis using over 2500 Vermont stream reaches (~1371 stream miles) assessed by the two agencies. In the development of this work, we combine a Naïve Bayesian classifier with a modified Kohonen Self-Organizing Map (SOM). The SOM is an unsupervised artificial neural network that autonomously analyzes inherent dataset properties using input data only. It is typically used to cluster data into similar categories when a priori classes do not exist. The

  20. A Bayesian network meta-analysis on second-line systemic therapy in advanced gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Xiaofu; Ko, Yoo-Joung; Berry, Scott; Shah, Keya; Lee, Esther; Chan, Kelvin

    2017-07-01

    It is unclear which regimen is the most efficacious among the available therapies for advanced gastric cancer in the second-line setting. We performed a network meta-analysis to determine their relative benefits. We conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) through the MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases and American Society of Clinical Oncology abstracts up to June 2014 to identify phase III RCTs on advanced gastric cancer in the second-line setting. Overall survival (OS) data were the primary outcome of interest. Hazard ratios (HRs) were extracted from the publications on the basis of reported values or were extracted from survival curves by established methods. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed with WinBUGS to compare all regimens simultaneously. Eight RCTs (2439 patients) were identified and contained extractable data for quantitative analysis. Network meta-analysis showed that paclitaxel plus ramucirumab was superior to single-agent ramucirumab [OS HR 0.51, 95 % credible region (CR) 0.30-0.86], paclitaxel (OS HR 0.81, 95 % CR 0.68-0.96), docetaxel (OS HR 0.56, 95 % CR 0.33-0.94), and irinotecan (OS HR 0.71, 95 % CR 0.52-0.99). Paclitaxel plus ramucirumab also had an 89 % probability of being the best regimen among all these regimens. Single-agent ramucirumab, paclitaxel, docetaxel, and irinotecan were comparable to each other with respect to OS and were superior to best supportive care. This is the first network meta-analysis to compare all second-line regimens reported in phase III gastric cancer trials. The results suggest the paclitaxel plus ramucirumab combination is the most effective therapy and should be the reference regimen for future comparative trials.

  1. A Bayesian network approach for modeling local failure in lung cancer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, Jung Hun; Craft, Jeffrey; Lozi, Rawan Al; Vaidya, Manushka; Meng, Yifan; Deasy, Joseph O.; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

    2011-03-01

    Locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffer from a high local failure rate following radiotherapy. Despite many efforts to develop new dose-volume models for early detection of tumor local failure, there was no reported significant improvement in their application prospectively. Based on recent studies of biomarker proteins' role in hypoxia and inflammation in predicting tumor response to radiotherapy, we hypothesize that combining physical and biological factors with a suitable framework could improve the overall prediction. To test this hypothesis, we propose a graphical Bayesian network framework for predicting local failure in lung cancer. The proposed approach was tested using two different datasets of locally advanced NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. The first dataset was collected retrospectively, which comprises clinical and dosimetric variables only. The second dataset was collected prospectively in which in addition to clinical and dosimetric information, blood was drawn from the patients at various time points to extract candidate biomarkers as well. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can be used as an efficient method to develop predictive models of local failure in these patients and to interpret relationships among the different variables in the models. We also demonstrate the potential use of heterogeneous physical and biological variables to improve the model prediction. With the first dataset, we achieved better performance compared with competing Bayesian-based classifiers. With the second dataset, the combined model had a slightly higher performance compared to individual physical and biological models, with the biological variables making the largest contribution. Our preliminary results highlight the potential of the proposed integrated approach for predicting post-radiotherapy local failure in NSCLC patients.

  2. Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Model for personalized prognostic risk assessment in colon carcinomatosis.

    PubMed

    Stojadinovic, Alexander; Nissan, Aviram; Eberhardt, John; Chua, Terence C; Pelz, Joerg O W; Esquivel, Jesus

    2011-02-01

    Multimodality therapy in selected patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis is gaining acceptance. Treatment-directing decision support tools are needed to individualize care and select patients best suited for cytoreductive surgery +/- hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS +/- HIPEC). The purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model that could support surgical decisions in patients with colon carcinomatosis. Fifty-three patients were enrolled in a prospective study collecting 31 clinical-pathological, treatment-related, and outcome data. The population was characterized by disease presentation, performance status, extent of peritoneal cancer (Peritoneal Cancer Index, PCI), primary tumor histology, and nodal staging. These preoperative parameters were analyzed using step-wise machine-learned Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to develop a predictive model for overall survival (OS) in patients considered for CRS +/- HIPEC. Area-under-the-curve from receiver-operating-characteristics curves of OS predictions was calculated to determine the model's positive and negative predictive value. Model structure defined three predictors of OS: severity of symptoms (performance status), PCI, and ability to undergo CRS +/- HIPEC. Patients with PCI < 10, resectable disease, and excellent performance status who underwent CRS +/- HIPEC had 89 per cent probability of survival compared with 4 per cent for those with poor performance status, PCI > 20, who were not considered surgical candidates. Cross validation of the BBN model robustly classified OS (area-under-the-curve = 0.71). The model's positive predictive value and negative predictive value are 63.3 per cent and 68.3 per cent, respectively. This exploratory study supports the utility of Bayesian classification for developing decision support tools, which assess case-specific relative risk for a given patient for oncological outcomes based on clinically relevant classifiers of survival. Further prospective studies

  3. Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hargrave, C.; Moores, M.; Deegan, T.; Gibbs, A.; Poulsen, M.; Harden, F.; Mengersen, K.

    2014-03-01

    A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific subregions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

  4. Resident Space Object Characterization and Behavior Understanding via Machine Learning and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furfaro, R.; Linares, R.; Gaylor, D.; Jah, M.; Walls, R.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present an end-to-end approach that employs machine learning techniques and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks (BN) to characterize the behavior of resident space objects. State-of-the-Art machine learning architectures (e.g. Extreme Learning Machines, Convolutional Deep Networks) are trained on physical models to learn the Resident Space Object (RSO) features in the vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters. The mapping from measurements to vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters enables behavior characterization via clustering in the features space and subsequent RSO classification. Additionally, Space Object Behavioral Ontologies (SOBO) are employed to define and capture the domain knowledge-base (KB) and BNs are constructed from the SOBO in a semi-automatic fashion to execute probabilistic reasoning over conclusions drawn from trained classifiers and/or directly from processed data. Such an approach enables integrating machine learning classifiers and probabilistic reasoning to support higher-level decision making for space domain awareness applications. The innovation here is to use these methods (which have enjoyed great success in other domains) in synergy so that it enables a "from data to discovery" paradigm by facilitating the linkage and fusion of large and disparate sources of information via a Big Data Science and Analytics framework.

  5. A hybrid dynamic Bayesian network approach for modelling temporal associations of gene expressions for hypertension diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Akutekwe, Arinze; Seker, Huseyin

    2014-01-01

    Computational and machine learning techniques have been applied in identifying biomarkers and constructing predictive models for diagnosis of hypertension. Strategies such as improved classification rules based on decision trees have been proposed. Other techniques such as Fuzzy Expert Systems (FES) and Neuro-Fuzzy Systems (NFS) have recently been applied. However, these methods lack the ability to detect temporal relationships among biomarker genes that will aid better understanding of the mechanism of hypertension disease. In this paper we apply a proposed two-stage bio-network construction approach that combines the power and computational efficiency of classification methods with the well-established predictive ability of Dynamic Bayesian Network. We demonstrate our method using the analysis of male young-onset hypertension microarray dataset. Four key genes were identified by the Least Angle Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and three Support Vector Machine Recursive Feature Elimination (SVM-RFE) methods. Results show that cell regulation FOXQ1 may inhibit the expression of focusyltransferase-6 (FUT6) and that ABCG1 ATP-binding cassette sub-family G may also play inhibitory role against NR2E3 nuclear receptor sub-family 2 and CGB2 Chromatin Gonadotrophin.

  6. Exploiting missing clinical data in Bayesian network modeling for predicting medical problems.

    PubMed

    Lin, Jau-Huei; Haug, Peter J

    2008-02-01

    When machine learning algorithms are applied to data collected during the course of clinical care, it is generally accepted that the data has not been consistently collected. The absence of expected data elements is common and the mechanism through which a data element is missing often involves the clinical relevance of that data element in a specific patient. Therefore, the absence of data may have information value of its own. In the process of designing an application intended to support a medical problem list, we have studied whether the "missingness" of clinical data can provide useful information in building prediction models. In this study, we experimented with four methods of treating missing values in a clinical data set-two of them explicitly model the absence or "missingness" of data. Each of these data sets were used to build four different kinds of Bayesian classifiers-a naive Bayes structure, a human-composed network structure, and two networks based on structural learning algorithms. We compared the performance between groups with and without explicit models of missingness using the area under the ROC curve. The results showed that in most cases the classifiers trained using the explicit missing value treatments performed better. The result suggests that information may exist in "missingness" itself. Thus, when designing a decision support system, we suggest one consider explicitly representing the presence/absence of data in the underlying logic.

  7. Longitudinal Prediction of the Infant Gut Microbiome with Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    PubMed Central

    McGeachie, Michael J.; Sordillo, Joanne E.; Gibson, Travis; Weinstock, George M.; Liu, Yang-Yu; Gold, Diane R.; Weiss, Scott T.; Litonjua, Augusto

    2016-01-01

    Sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene allows comprehensive assessment of bacterial community composition from human body sites. Previously published and publicly accessible data on 58 preterm infants in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit who underwent frequent stool collection was used. We constructed Dynamic Bayesian Networks from the data and analyzed predictive performance and network characteristics. We constructed a DBN model of the infant gut microbial ecosystem, which explicitly captured specific relationships and general trends in the data: increasing amounts of Clostridia, residual amounts of Bacilli, and increasing amounts of Gammaproteobacteria that then give way to Clostridia. Prediction performance of DBNs with fewer edges were overall more accurate, although less so on harder-to-predict subjects (p = 0.045). DBNs provided quantitative likelihood estimates for rare abruptions events. Iterative prediction was less accurate (p < 0.001), but showed remarkable insensitivity to initial conditions and predicted convergence to a mix of Clostridia, Gammaproteobacteria, and Bacilli. DBNs were able to identify important relationships between microbiome taxa and predict future changes in microbiome composition from measured or synthetic initial conditions. DBNs also provided likelihood estimates for sudden, dramatic shifts in microbiome composition, which may be useful in guiding further analysis of those samples. PMID:26853461

  8. Exploring the utility of Bayesian Networks for modelling cultural ecosystem services: A canoeing case study.

    PubMed

    Shaw, Edward; Kumar, Vikas; Lange, Eckart; Lerner, David N

    2016-01-01

    Modelling cultural ecosystem services is challenging as they often involve subjective and intangible concepts. As a consequence they have been neglected in ecosystem service studies, something that needs remedying if environmental decision making is to be truly holistic. We suggest Bayesian Networks (BNs) have a number of qualities that may make them well-suited for dealing with cultural services. For example, they define relationships between variables probabilistically, enabling conceptual and physical variables to be linked, and therefore the numerical representation of stakeholder opinions. We assess whether BNs are a good method for modelling cultural services by building one collaboratively with canoeists to predict how the subjective concepts of fun and danger are impacted on by weir modification. The BN successfully captured the relationships between the variables, with model output being broadly consistent with verbal descriptions by the canoeists. There were however a number of discrepancies indicating imperfect knowledge capture. This is likely due to the structure of the network and the abstract and laborious nature of the probability elicitation stage. New techniques should be developed to increase the intuitiveness and efficiency of probability elicitation. The limitations we identified with BNs are avoided if their structure can be kept simple, and it is in such circumstances that BNs can offer a good method for modelling cultural ecosystem services.

  9. Identification of Functional Modules by Integration of Multiple Data Sources Using a Bayesian Network Classifier

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jinlian; Zuo, Yiming; Liu, Lun; Man, Yangao; Tadesse, Mahlet G.; Ressom, Habtom W

    2014-01-01

    Background Prediction of functional modules is indispensable for detecting protein deregulation in human complex diseases such as cancer. Bayesian network (BN) is one of the most commonly used models to integrate heterogeneous data from multiple sources such as protein domain, interactome, functional annotation, genome-wide gene expression, and the literature. Methods and Results In this paper, we present a BN classifier that is customized to: 1) increase the ability to integrate diverse information from different sources, 2) effectively predict protein-protein interactions, 3) infer aberrant networks with scale-free and small world properties, and 4) group molecules into functional modules or pathways based on the primary function and biological features. Application of this model on discovering protein biomarkers of hepatocelluar carcinoma (HCC) leads to the identification of functional modules that provide insights into the mechanism of the development and progression of HCC. These functional modules include cell cycle deregulation, increased angiogenesis (e.g., vascular endothelial growth factor, blood vessel morphogenesis), oxidative metabolic alterations, and aberrant activation of signaling pathways involved in cellular proliferation, survival, and differentiation. Conclusion The discoveries and conclusions derived from our customized BN classifier are consistent with previously published results. The proposed approach for determining BN structure facilitates the integration of heterogeneous data from multiple sources to elucidate the mechanisms of complex diseases. PMID:24736851

  10. How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

    PubMed

    Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

    2016-01-01

    Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

  11. How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling

    PubMed Central

    Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J.; Austin, R. Marshall

    2016-01-01

    Background: Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. Aim: The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. Materials and Methods: This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan–Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. Results: The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Conclusion: Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches. PMID:28163973