Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejduk, M.; Laporte, F.; Moury, M.; Newman, L.; Shepperd, R.

2017-01-01

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

Practical Consequences of Item Response Theory Model Misfit in the Context of Test Equating with Mixed-Format Test Data

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yue; Hambleton, Ronald K.

2017-01-01

In item response theory (IRT) models, assessing model-data fit is an essential step in IRT calibration. While no general agreement has ever been reached on the best methods or approaches to use for detecting misfit, perhaps the more important comment based upon the research findings is that rarely does the research evaluate IRT misfit by focusing on the practical consequences of misfit. The study investigated the practical consequences of IRT model misfit in examining the equating performance and the classification of examinees into performance categories in a simulation study that mimics a typical large-scale statewide assessment program with mixed-format test data. The simulation study was implemented by varying three factors, including choice of IRT model, amount of growth/change of examinees’ abilities between two adjacent administration years, and choice of IRT scaling methods. Findings indicated that the extent of significant consequences of model misfit varied over the choice of model and IRT scaling methods. In comparison with mean/sigma (MS) and Stocking and Lord characteristic curve (SL) methods, separate calibration with linking and fixed common item parameter (FCIP) procedure was more sensitive to model misfit and more robust against various amounts of ability shifts between two adjacent administrations regardless of model fit. SL was generally the least sensitive to model misfit in recovering equating conversion and MS was the least robust against ability shifts in recovering the equating conversion when a substantial degree of misfit was present. The key messages from the study are that practical ways are available to study model fit, and, model fit or misfit can have consequences that should be considered when choosing an IRT model. Not only does the study address the consequences of IRT model misfit, but also it is our hope to help researchers and practitioners find practical ways to study model fit and to investigate the validity of particular IRT models for achieving a specified purpose, to assure that the successful use of the IRT models are realized, and to improve the applications of IRT models with educational and psychological test data. PMID:28421011

Assessing the Potential Environmental Consequences of a New Energetic Material: A Phased Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

Melting point • Ionization potential (2) QSAR approaches can also be used to estimate toxicological impact. Toxicity QSAR models can often... TOXICOLOGY STUDY NO. 87-XE-03N3-05 ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF A NEW ENERGETIC MATERIAL: A PHASED APPROACH...SEPTEMBER 2005 Published: December 2007 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Toxicology Study No. 87-XE-03N3-05

The Impact of Parental Modeling and Permissibility on Alcohol Use and Experienced Negative Drinking Consequences in College

PubMed Central

Abar, Caitlin; Abar, Beau; Turrisi, Rob

2009-01-01

This study examined the impact of parental modeled behavior and permissibility of alcohol use in late high school on the alcohol use and experienced negative drinking consequences of college students. Two-hundred ninety college freshmen at a large university were assessed for perceptions of their parents’ permissibility of alcohol use, parents’ alcohol-related behavior, and own experienced negative consequences associated with alcohol use. Results indicate that parental permissibility of alcohol use is a consistent predictor of teen drinking behaviors, which was strongly associated with experienced negative consequences. Parental modeled use of alcohol was also found to be a risk factor, with significant differences being seen across the gender of the parents and teens. Discussion focuses on risk factors and avenues for prevention research. PMID:19398278

Assessing Model Data Fit of Unidimensional Item Response Theory Models in Simulated Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kose, Ibrahim Alper

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to give an example of how to assess the model-data fit of unidimensional IRT models in simulated data. Also, the present research aims to explain the importance of fit and the consequences of misfit by using simulated data sets. Responses of 1000 examinees to a dichotomously scoring 20 item test were simulated with 25…

Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

PubMed

Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

2015-04-01

A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk analysis of urban gas pipeline network based on improved bow-tie model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, M. J.; You, Q. J.; Yue, Z.

2017-11-01

Gas pipeline network is a major hazard source in urban areas. In the event of an accident, there could be grave consequences. In order to understand more clearly the causes and consequences of gas pipeline network accidents, and to develop prevention and mitigation measures, the author puts forward the application of improved bow-tie model to analyze risks of urban gas pipeline network. The improved bow-tie model analyzes accident causes from four aspects: human, materials, environment and management; it also analyzes the consequences from four aspects: casualty, property loss, environment and society. Then it quantifies the causes and consequences. Risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control, and risk management will be clearly shown in the model figures. Then it can suggest prevention and mitigation measures accordingly to help reduce accident rate of gas pipeline network. The results show that the whole process of an accident can be visually investigated using the bow-tie model. It can also provide reasons for and predict consequences of an unfortunate event. It is of great significance in order to analyze leakage failure of gas pipeline network.

Assessing the Potential Environmental Consequences of a New Energetic Material: A Phased Approach, September 2005

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

there are no reliable alternatives to animal testing in the determination of toxicity. QSARs are only as reliable as the corroborating toxicological ...2) QSAR approaches can also be used to estimate toxicological impact. Toxicity QSAR models can often predict many toxicity parameters without... Toxicology Study No. 87-XE-03N3-05, Assessing the Potential Environmental Consequences of a New Energetic Material: A Phased Approach, September 2005 1

STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING PARAMETERS IN PBPK/PD MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

PBPK/PD models are large dynamic models that predict tissue concentration and biological effects of a toxicant before PBPK/PD models can be used in risk assessments in the arena of toxicological hypothesis testing, models allow the consequences of alternative mechanistic hypothes...

A novel in vivo model for assessing the impact of geophagic earth on iron status

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The causes and consequences of geophagy, the craving and consumption of earth, remain enigmatic, despite its recognition as a behavior with public health implications. Iron deficiency has been proposed as both a cause and consequence of geophagy, but methodological limitations have precluded a decis...

Social Causes and Consequences of Rejection Sensitivity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

London, Bonita; Downey, Geraldine; Bonica, Cheryl; Paltin, Iris

2007-01-01

Predictions from the Rejection Sensitivity (RS) model concerning the social causes and consequences of RS were examined in a longitudinal study of 150 middle school students. Peer nominations of rejection, self-report measures of anxious and angry rejection expectations, and social anxiety, social withdrawal, and loneliness were assessed at two…

Retrospective fire modeling: Quantifying the impacts of fire suppression

Treesearch

Brett H. Davis; Carol Miller; Sean A. Parks

2010-01-01

Land management agencies need to understand and monitor the consequences of their fire suppression decisions. We developed a framework for retrospective fire behavior modeling and impact assessment to determine where ignitions would have spread had they not been suppressed and to assess the cumulative effects that would have resulted. This document is a general...

Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments

Treesearch

Yohay Carmel; Curtis H. Flather

2006-01-01

Modeling the future distribution of keystone species has proved to be an important approach to assessing the potential ecological consequences of climate change (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996; Hansen et al. 2001). Predictions of range shifts are typically based on empirical models derived from simple correlative relationships between climatic characteristics of occupied and...

A landscape based, systems dynamic model for assessing impacts of urban development on water quality for sustainable seagrass growth in Tampa Bay, Florida

EPA Science Inventory

We present an integrated assessment model to predict potential unintended consequences of urban development on the sustainability of seagrasses and preservation of ecosystem services, such as catchable fish, in Tampa Bay. Ecosystem services are those ecological functions and pro...

A model of the pre-assessment learning effects of assessment is operational in an undergraduate clinical context

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background No validated model exists to explain the learning effects of assessment, a problem when designing and researching assessment for learning. We recently developed a model explaining the pre-assessment learning effects of summative assessment in a theory teaching context. The challenge now is to validate this model. The purpose of this study was to explore whether the model was operational in a clinical context as a first step in this process. Methods Given the complexity of the model, we adopted a qualitative approach. Data from in-depth interviews with eighteen medical students were subject to content analysis. We utilised a code book developed previously using grounded theory. During analysis, we remained alert to data that might not conform to the coding framework and open to the possibility of deploying inductive coding. Ethical clearance and informed consent were obtained. Results The three components of the model i.e., assessment factors, mechanism factors and learning effects were all evident in the clinical context. Associations between these components could all be explained by the model. Interaction with preceptors was identified as a new subcomponent of assessment factors. The model could explain the interrelationships of the three facets of this subcomponent i.e., regular accountability, personal consequences and emotional valence of the learning environment, with previously described components of the model. Conclusions The model could be utilized to analyse and explain observations in an assessment context different to that from which it was derived. In the clinical setting, the (negative) influence of preceptors on student learning was particularly prominent. In this setting, learning effects resulted not only from the high-stakes nature of summative assessment but also from personal stakes, e.g. for esteem and agency. The results suggest that to influence student learning, consequences should accrue from assessment that are immediate, concrete and substantial. The model could have utility as a planning or diagnostic tool in practice and research settings. PMID:22420839

Physiological consequences of CPAP therapy withdrawal in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea-an opportunity for an efficient experimental model.

PubMed

Schwarz, Esther I; Stradling, John R; Kohler, Malcolm

2018-01-01

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) in obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) are time consuming, and their findings often inconclusive or limited due to suboptimal CPAP adherence in CPAP-naïve patients with OSA. Short-term CPAP withdrawal in patients with prior optimal CPAP adherence results in recurrence of OSA and its consequences. Thus, this experimental model serves as an efficient tool to investigate both the consequences of untreated OSA, and potential treatment alternatives to CPAP. The CPAP withdrawal protocol has been thoroughly validated, and applied in several RCTs focusing on cardiovascular and metabolic consequences of untreated OSA, as well as the assessment of treatment alternatives to CPAP.

Physiological consequences of CPAP therapy withdrawal in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea—an opportunity for an efficient experimental model

PubMed Central

Stradling, John R.; Kohler, Malcolm

2018-01-01

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) in obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) are time consuming, and their findings often inconclusive or limited due to suboptimal CPAP adherence in CPAP-naïve patients with OSA. Short-term CPAP withdrawal in patients with prior optimal CPAP adherence results in recurrence of OSA and its consequences. Thus, this experimental model serves as an efficient tool to investigate both the consequences of untreated OSA, and potential treatment alternatives to CPAP. The CPAP withdrawal protocol has been thoroughly validated, and applied in several RCTs focusing on cardiovascular and metabolic consequences of untreated OSA, as well as the assessment of treatment alternatives to CPAP. PMID:29445525

Perceived racism and alcohol consequences among African American and Caucasian college students.

PubMed

Grekin, Emily R

2012-12-01

Few studies have assessed relationships between perceived racism, racism-related stress, and alcohol problems. The current study examined these relationships within the context of tension reduction models of alcohol consumption. Participants were 94 African American and 189 Caucasian college freshmen who completed an online survey assessing perceived racism, alcohol consequences, alcohol consumption, negative affect, and deviant behavior. Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated that racism-related stress predicted alcohol consequences for both African American and Caucasian college students, even after controlling for alcohol consumption, negative affect, and behavioral deviance. The frequency of racist events predicted alcohol consequences for Caucasian but not African American students. These findings highlight the need to address racism and racism-related stress in college-based alcohol prevention and intervention efforts. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Modelling consequences of change in biodiversity and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This chapter offers an assessment of the rapidly changing landscape of methods assessing and forecasting the benefits that people receive from nature and how these benefits are shaped by institutions and various anthropogenic assets. There has been an explosion of activity in understanding and modeling the benefits that people receive from nature, and this explosion has provided a diversity of approaches that are both complementary and contradictory. However, there remain major gaps in what current models can do. They are not well suited to estimate most types of benefits at national, regional, or global scales. they are focused on decision analysis, but have not focused on implementation, learning, or dialogue. This hap in particular means that current models are not well suited to bridging among multiple knowledge systems, however, there are initial efforts made towards this goal. Furthermore, while participatory social-ecological scenarios are able to bridge multiple knowledge systems in their assessment and analysis of multiple ecosystem series, the social-ecological scenarios community is fragmented and not well connected. Consequently, IPBES has an excellent knowledge base to build upon, but a real investment in building a more integrated modeling and scenarios community of practice is needed to produce a more complete and useful toolbox of approaches to meet the needs of IPBES assessment and other assessment of nature benefits. This Chapter describes

Student Self-Assessment: Processes and Consequences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taras, Maddalena

2010-01-01

Empirical research signals that self-assessment is an important factor supporting and engaging students with learning. Despite this, there has been no explicit comparison or evaluation of recent models used across educational sectors or within them. To the uninitiated, self-assessment often appears as an amorphous, unique process. This paper…

Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security.

PubMed

Kumar, Manoj

2016-08-01

In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of agricultural productivity to sustain food security for generations is essential to maintain a collective knowledge and resources for preventing negative impact as well as managing crop practises.

Variable thickness transient ground-water flow model. Volume 3. Program listings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reisenauer, A.E.

1979-12-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (OWNI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologicmore » systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. Hydrologic and transport models are available at several levels of complexity or sophistication. Model selection and use are determined by the quantity and quality of input data. Model development under AEGIS and related programs provides three levels of hydrologic models, two levels of transport models, and one level of dose models (with several separate models). This is the third of 3 volumes of the description of the VTT (Variable Thickness Transient) Groundwater Hydrologic Model - second level (intermediate complexity) two-dimensional saturated groundwater flow.« less

Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis [Chapter 2

Treesearch

Matthew Thompson; Jord J. Warmink

2017-01-01

Modeling can play a critical role in assessing and mitigating risks posed by natural hazards. These modeling efforts generally aim to characterize the occurrence, intensity, and potential consequences of natural hazards. Uncertainties surrounding the modeling process can have important implications for the development, application, evaluation, and interpretation of...

Statistical Tools for Fitting Models of the Population Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance to Data from Marine Mammal Populations (PCAD Tools II)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Interim PCOD approach. In both of these case studies we relied on expert knowledge to link disturbance to vital rates. In the right whale case study...the Interim Population Consequences of Disturbance ( PCoD ) Approach: Quantifying and Assessing the Effects of UK Offshore Renewable Energy

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.; Bixler, Nathan E.

2014-02-01

This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the modelmore » response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)« less

Questioning Needs Assessment: Some Limitations and Positive Alternatives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hannum, Wallace

2013-01-01

This article raises questions about the use of needs assessment by those seeking to improve the performance of organizations and individuals. While the discrepancy model of needs assessment has enjoyed a long history and is widely accepted, the author states that it has several undesirable consequences in terms of its impact. This article offers…

Research Note: The consequences of different methods for handling missing network data in Stochastic Actor Based Models

PubMed Central

Hipp, John R.; Wang, Cheng; Butts, Carter T.; Jose, Rupa; Lakon, Cynthia M.

2015-01-01

Although stochastic actor based models (e.g., as implemented in the SIENA software program) are growing in popularity as a technique for estimating longitudinal network data, a relatively understudied issue is the consequence of missing network data for longitudinal analysis. We explore this issue in our research note by utilizing data from four schools in an existing dataset (the AddHealth dataset) over three time points, assessing the substantive consequences of using four different strategies for addressing missing network data. The results indicate that whereas some measures in such models are estimated relatively robustly regardless of the strategy chosen for addressing missing network data, some of the substantive conclusions will differ based on the missing data strategy chosen. These results have important implications for this burgeoning applied research area, implying that researchers should more carefully consider how they address missing data when estimating such models. PMID:25745276

Research Note: The consequences of different methods for handling missing network data in Stochastic Actor Based Models.

PubMed

Hipp, John R; Wang, Cheng; Butts, Carter T; Jose, Rupa; Lakon, Cynthia M

2015-05-01

Although stochastic actor based models (e.g., as implemented in the SIENA software program) are growing in popularity as a technique for estimating longitudinal network data, a relatively understudied issue is the consequence of missing network data for longitudinal analysis. We explore this issue in our research note by utilizing data from four schools in an existing dataset (the AddHealth dataset) over three time points, assessing the substantive consequences of using four different strategies for addressing missing network data. The results indicate that whereas some measures in such models are estimated relatively robustly regardless of the strategy chosen for addressing missing network data, some of the substantive conclusions will differ based on the missing data strategy chosen. These results have important implications for this burgeoning applied research area, implying that researchers should more carefully consider how they address missing data when estimating such models.

Mental health, sleep quality, drinking motives, and alcohol-related consequences: a path-analytic model.

PubMed

Kenney, Shannon R; Lac, Andrew; Labrie, Joseph W; Hummer, Justin F; Pham, Andy

2013-11-01

Poor mental health, sleep problems, drinking motivations, and high-risk drinking are prevalent among college students. However, research designed to explicate the interrelationships among these health risk behaviors is lacking. This study was designed to assess the direct and indirect influences of poor mental health (a latent factor consisting of depression, anxiety, and stress) to alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences through the mediators of global sleep quality and drinking motives in a comprehensive model. Participants were 1,044 heavy-drinking college students (66.3% female) who completed online surveys. A hybrid structural equation model tested hypotheses involving relations leading from poor mental health to drinking motives and poorer global sleep quality to drinking outcomes. Results showed that poor mental health significantly predicted all four subscales of drinking motivations (social, coping, conformity, and enhancement) as well as poor sleep. Most of the drinking motives and poor sleep were found to explain alcohol use and negative alcohol consequences. Poor sleep predicted alcohol consequences, even after controlling for all other variables in the model. The hypothesized mediational pathways were examined with tests of indirect effects. This is the first study to assess concomitantly the relationships among three vital health-related domains (mental health, sleep behavior, and alcohol risk) in college students. Findings offer important implications for college personnel and interventionists interested in reducing alcohol risk by focusing on alleviating mental health problems and poor sleep quality.

Statistical surrogate models for prediction of high-consequence climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Constantine, Paul; Field, Richard V., Jr.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2011-09-01

In safety engineering, performance metrics are defined using probabilistic risk assessments focused on the low-probability, high-consequence tail of the distribution of possible events, as opposed to best estimates based on central tendencies. We frame the climate change problem and its associated risks in a similar manner. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We therefore propose the use of specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) for the purpose of exploring the probability law of various climate variables of interest.more » A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, e.g., the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), or to a collection of outputs from a General Circulation Model (GCM), e.g., the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and its predecessors. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework is developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, in the use of the proposed approach to assess these risks.« less

Assessing biocomputational modelling in transforming clinical guidelines for osteoporosis management.

PubMed

Thiel, Rainer; Viceconti, Marco; Stroetmann, Karl

2011-01-01

Biocomputational modelling as developed by the European Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) Initiative is the area of ICT most likely to revolutionise in the longer term the practice of medicine. Using the example of osteoporosis management, a socio-economic assessment framework is presented that captures how the transformation of clinical guidelines through VPH models can be evaluated. Applied to the Osteoporotic Virtual Physiological Human Project, a consequent benefit-cost analysis delivers promising results, both methodologically and substantially.

Modelling of environmental impacts of solid waste landfilling within the life-cycle analysis program EASEWASTE.

PubMed

Kirkeby, Janus T; Birgisdottir, Harpa; Bhander, Gurbakash Singh; Hauschild, Michael; Christensen, Thomas H

2007-01-01

A new computer-based life-cycle assessment model (EASEWASTE) has been developed to evaluate resource and environmental consequences of solid waste management systems. This paper describes the landfilling sub-model used in the life-cycle assessment program EASEWASTE, and examines some of the implications of this sub-model. All quantities and concentrations of leachate and landfill gas can be modified by the user in order to bring them in agreement with the actual landfill that is assessed by the model. All emissions, except the generation of landfill gas, are process specific. The landfill gas generation is calculated on the basis of organic matter in the landfilled waste. A landfill assessment example is provided. For this example, the normalised environmental effects of landfill gas on global warming and photochemical smog are much greater than the environmental effects for landfill leachate or for landfill construction. A sensitivity analysis for this example indicates that the overall environmental impact is sensitive to the gas collection efficiency and the use of the gas, but not to the amount of leachate generated, or the amount of soil or liner material used in construction. The landfill model can be used for evaluating different technologies with different liners, gas and leachate collection efficiencies, and to compare the environmental consequences of landfilling with alternative waste treatment options such as incineration or anaerobic digestion.

A new assessment method for urbanization environmental impact: urban environment entropy model and its application.

PubMed

Ouyang, Tingping; Fu, Shuqing; Zhu, Zhaoyu; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Wu, Zhifeng

2008-11-01

The thermodynamic law is one of the most widely used scientific principles. The comparability between the environmental impact of urbanization and the thermodynamic entropy was systematically analyzed. Consequently, the concept "Urban Environment Entropy" was brought forward and the "Urban Environment Entropy" model was established for urbanization environmental impact assessment in this study. The model was then utilized in a case study for the assessment of river water quality in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. The results indicated that the assessing results of the model are consistent to that of the equalized synthetic pollution index method. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Urban Environment Entropy model has high reliability and can be applied widely in urbanization environmental assessment research using many different environmental parameters.

Finite-element three-dimensional ground-water (FE3DGW) flow model - formulation, program listings and users' manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gupta, S.K.; Cole, C.R.; Bond, F.W.

1979-12-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (OWNI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologicmore » systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. Hydrologic and transport models are available at several levels of complexity or sophistication. Model selection and use are determined by the quantity and quality of input data. Model development under AEGIS and related programs provides three levels of hydrologic models, two levels of transport models, and one level of dose models (with several separate models). This document consists of the description of the FE3DGW (Finite Element, Three-Dimensional Groundwater) Hydrologic model third level (high complexity) three-dimensional, finite element approach (Galerkin formulation) for saturated groundwater flow.« less

A Model for Long Term Assessment of Computing and Information Systems Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Mubaid, Hisham; Kim, Dan J.; Yue, Kwok-Bun; Hall, Sharon; Abeysekera, Krishani

2011-01-01

Assessment practices and requirements are very broad and vary widely among academic programs and from one institution to the other. Consequently, we noticed, in the recent years, increased volumes of research and interest geared into the assessment process and procedures in various disciplines in higher education. In this paper, we present and…

INTEGRATING LANDSCAPE AND HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENT IN AN AMERICAN SEMI-ARID BIOREGION

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study is to demonstrate the application of operational hydrologic modeling and landscape assessment tools to investigate the temporal and spatial effects of varying levels of anthropogenic disturbance in a semi-arid catchment and examine the consequences of ...

The impact of sleep and psychiatric symptoms on alcohol consequences among young adults.

PubMed

Miller, Mary Beth; Van Reen, Eliza; Barker, David H; Roane, Brandy M; Borsari, Brian; McGeary, John E; Seifer, Ronald; Carskadon, Mary A

2017-03-01

Independent lines of research have documented links between psychiatric symptoms and poor sleep quality, psychiatric symptoms and alcohol use, and alcohol use and poor sleep quality. The current study examined the synergistic effect of poor sleep quality and psychiatric symptoms on alcohol-related consequences in heavy-drinking young adults. Matriculating college students reporting at least one heavy drinking episode over the first nine weeks of the semester (N=385, 52% female) were categorized as experiencing 'good' (n=280) versus 'poor' sleep quality (n=105) and screening 'positive' (n=203) or 'negative' (n=182) for a psychiatric disorder. Sleep quality was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index; psychiatric diagnosis was assessed using the Psychiatric Diagnostic Screening Questionnaire; and alcohol-related consequences were assessed using the Brief Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire. General linear models were used to examine the main effects and interaction between sleep quality and psychiatric symptoms on alcohol-related consequences. Sleep quality moderated the association between psychiatric screen and alcohol-related consequences among heavy-drinking college students, such that psychiatric symptoms were associated with more alcohol-related consequences in the context of poor sleep quality. The combination of poor sleep quality and psychiatric symptoms is associated with increased alcohol-related consequences among heavy-drinking college students. Given the significant interaction between these symptoms, healthcare providers are encouraged to screen for the presence of sleep and psychiatric disorders among heavy-drinking young adults and to provide empirically-supported treatments as appropriate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional abundance of on-premise outlets and drinking patterns among Swiss young men: district level analyses and geographic adjustments.

PubMed

Astudillo, Mariana; Kuendig, Hervé; Centeno-Gil, Adriana; Wicki, Matthias; Gmel, Gerhard

2014-09-01

This study investigated the associations of alcohol outlet density with specific alcohol outcomes (consumption and consequences) among young men in Switzerland and assessed the possible geographically related variations. Alcohol consumption and drinking consequences were measured in a 2010-2011 study assessing substance use risk factors (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors) among 5519 young Swiss men. Outlet density was based on the number of on- and off-premise outlets in the district of residence. Linear regression models were run separately for drinking level, heavy episodic drinking (HED) and drinking consequences. Geographically weighted regression models were estimated when variations were recorded at the district level. No consistent association was found between outlet density and drinking consequences. A positive association between drinking level and HED with on-premise outlet density was found. Geographically weighted regressions were run for drinking level and HED. The predicted values for HED were higher in the southwest part of Switzerland (French-speaking part). Among Swiss young men, the density of outlets and, in particular, the abundance of bars, clubs and other on-premise outlets was associated with drinking level and HED, even when drinking consequences were not significantly affected. These findings support the idea that outlet density needs to be considered when developing and implementing regional-based prevention initiatives. © 2014 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

Dispersal and extrapolation on the accuracy of temporal predictions from distribution models for the Darwin's frog.

PubMed

Uribe-Rivera, David E; Soto-Azat, Claudio; Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Bizama, Gustavo; Simonetti, Javier A; Pliscoff, Patricio

2017-07-01

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity; the development of models that reliably predict its effects on species distributions is a priority for conservation biogeography. Two of the main issues for accurate temporal predictions from Species Distribution Models (SDM) are model extrapolation and unrealistic dispersal scenarios. We assessed the consequences of these issues on the accuracy of climate-driven SDM predictions for the dispersal-limited Darwin's frog Rhinoderma darwinii in South America. We calibrated models using historical data (1950-1975) and projected them across 40 yr to predict distribution under current climatic conditions, assessing predictive accuracy through the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS), contrasting binary model predictions against temporal-independent validation data set (i.e., current presences/absences). To assess the effects of incorporating dispersal processes we compared the predictive accuracy of dispersal constrained models with no dispersal limited SDMs; and to assess the effects of model extrapolation on the predictive accuracy of SDMs, we compared this between extrapolated and no extrapolated areas. The incorporation of dispersal processes enhanced predictive accuracy, mainly due to a decrease in the false presence rate of model predictions, which is consistent with discrimination of suitable but inaccessible habitat. This also had consequences on range size changes over time, which is the most used proxy for extinction risk from climate change. The area of current climatic conditions that was absent in the baseline conditions (i.e., extrapolated areas) represents 39% of the study area, leading to a significant decrease in predictive accuracy of model predictions for those areas. Our results highlight (1) incorporating dispersal processes can improve predictive accuracy of temporal transference of SDMs and reduce uncertainties of extinction risk assessments from global change; (2) as geographical areas subjected to novel climates are expected to arise, they must be reported as they show less accurate predictions under future climate scenarios. Consequently, environmental extrapolation and dispersal processes should be explicitly incorporated to report and reduce uncertainties in temporal predictions of SDMs, respectively. Doing so, we expect to improve the reliability of the information we provide for conservation decision makers under future climate change scenarios. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Decision Support System For Management Of Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal At The Nevada Test Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shott, G.; Yucel, V.; Desotell, L.

2006-07-01

The long-term safety of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) low-level radioactive disposal facilities is assessed by conducting a performance assessment -- a systematic analysis that compares estimated risks to the public and the environment with performance objectives contained in DOE Manual 435.1-1, Radioactive Waste Management Manual. Before site operations, facilities design features such as final inventory, waste form characteristics, and closure cover design may be uncertain. Site operators need a modeling tool that can be used throughout the operational life of the disposal site to guide decisions regarding the acceptance of problematic waste streams, new disposal cell design, environmental monitoringmore » program design, and final site closure. In response to these needs the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office (NNSA/NSO) has developed a decision support system for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site in Frenchman Flat on the Nevada Test Site. The core of the system is a probabilistic inventory and performance assessment model implemented in the GoldSim{sup R} simulation platform. The modeling platform supports multiple graphic capabilities that allow clear documentation of the model data sources, conceptual model, mathematical implementation, and results. The combined models have the capability to estimate disposal site inventory, contaminant concentrations in environmental media, and radiological doses to members of the public engaged in various activities at multiple locations. The model allows rapid assessment and documentation of the consequences of waste management decisions using the most current site characterization information, radionuclide inventory, and conceptual model. The model is routinely used to provide annual updates of site performance, evaluate the consequences of disposal of new waste streams, develop waste concentration limits, optimize the design of new disposal cells, and assess the adequacy of environmental monitoring programs. (authors)« less

Seed-parent fecundity distributions in bee-pollinated forage legume polycrosses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Modeling expected fecundity distributions in bee-pollinated forage legume polycrosses allows more accurate assessment of effective polycross size and its inbreeding consequences. In this study, polycross size (N) standardized seed-parent fecundity frequencies [(Pfi – (1/N))/(1/N)] were modeled on 16...

A Novel in Vivo Model for Assessing the Impact of Geophagic Earth on Iron Status

PubMed Central

Seim, Gretchen L.; Tako, Elad; Ahn, Cedric; Glahn, Raymond P.; Young, Sera L.

2016-01-01

The causes and consequences of geophagy, the craving and consumption of earth, remain enigmatic, despite its recognition as a behavior with public health implications. Iron deficiency has been proposed as both a cause and consequence of geophagy, but methodological limitations have precluded a decisive investigation into this relationship. Here we present a novel in vivo model for assessing the impact of geophagic earth on iron status: Gallus gallus (broiler chicken). For four weeks, animals were gavaged daily with varying dosages of geophagic material or pure clay mineral. Differences in haemoglobin (Hb) across treatment groups were assessed weekly and differences in liver ferritin, liver iron, and gene expression of the iron transporters divalent metal transporter 1 (DMT1), duodenal cytochrome B (DcytB) and ferroportin were assessed at the end of the study. Minimal impact on iron status indicators was observed in all non-control groups, suggesting dosing of geophagic materials may need refining in future studies. However, this model shows clear advantages over prior methods used both in vitro and in humans, and represents an important step in explaining the public health impact of geophagy on iron status. PMID:27304966

Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

PubMed

Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

2016-10-01

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 7-factor hybrid model of DSM-5 PTSD symptoms and alcohol consumption and consequences in a national sample of trauma-exposed veterans.

PubMed

Claycomb Erwin, Meredith; Charak, Ruby; Durham, Tory A; Armour, Cherie; Lv, Xin; Southwick, Steven M; Elhai, Jon D; Pietrzak, Robert H

2017-10-01

The purpose of the present study was to investigate associations between the 7-factor hybrid model of DSM-5 posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, which includes intrusions, avoidance, negative affect, anhedonia, externalizing behaviors, anxious arousal, and dysphoric arousal symptoms, and alcohol consumption and consequences. A nationally representative sample of 916 trauma-exposed U.S. military veterans were administered the Trauma History Screen, PTSD Checklist-5, and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. Confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to determine associations between the 7-factor hybrid model of PTSD symptoms, and alcohol consumption and consequences. Results revealed that lifetime dysphoric arousal (r=0.31), negative affect (r=0.30), and anhedonia (r=0.29) symptom clusters were most strongly associated with past-year alcohol consequences. No significant associations were observed for alcohol consumption. While the cross-sectional study design does not allow one to ascertain causative associations between PTSD factors and alcohol consumption and consequences, results generally align with the self-medication hypothesis, as PTSD factors reflecting internalizing were most strongly related to alcohol-related consequences. These results underscore the importance of assessing for alcohol use problems in veterans who score highly on PTSD symptoms reflecting internalizing symptomatology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling consequences of change in biodiversity and ecosystems for nature's benefits to people

EPA Science Inventory

This chapter offers an assessment of the rapidly changing landscape of methods assessing and forecasting the benefits that people receive from nature and how these benefits are shaped by institutions and various anthropogenic assets. There has been an explosion of activity in un...

Assessing Environmental Consequences of Ticcing in Youth with Chronic Tic Disorders: The Tic Accommodation and Reactions Scale

PubMed Central

Capriotti, Matthew R.; Piacentini, John C.; Himle, Michael B.; Ricketts, Emily J.; Espil, Flint M.; Lee, Han Joo; Turkel, Jennifer E.; Woods, Douglas W.

2015-01-01

Tics associated with Tourette syndrome and other chronic tic disorders (CTDs) often draw social reactions and disrupt ongoing behavior. In some cases, such tic-related consequences may function to alter moment-to-moment and future tic severity. These observations have been incorporated into contemporary biopsychosocial models of CTD phenomenology, but systematic research detailing the nature of the relationship between environmental consequences and ticcing remains scarce. This study describes the development of the Tic Accommodation and Reactions Scale (TARS), a measure of the number and frequency of immediate consequences for ticcing experienced by youth with CTDs. Thirty eight youth with CTDs and their parents completed the TARS as part of a broader assessment of CTD symptoms and psychosocial functioning. The TARS demonstrated good psychometric properties (i.e., internal consistency, parent-child agreement, convergent validity, discriminant validity). Differences between parent-reported and child-reported data indicated that children may provide more valid reports of tic-contingent consequences than parents. Although preliminary, results of this study suggest that the TARS is a psychometrically sound measure of tic-related consequences suited for future research in youth with CTDs. PMID:27076696

The psychometric properties of a shortened Dutch version of the consequences scale used in the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey.

PubMed

De Bruyn, Sara; Wouters, Edwin; Ponnet, Koen; Van Damme, Joris; Van Hal, Guido

2017-01-01

Alcohol and drug misuse among college students has been studied extensively and has been clearly identified as a public health problem. Within more general populations alcohol misuse remains one of the leading causes of disease, disability and death worldwide. Conducting research on alcohol misuse requires valid and reliable instruments to measure its consequences. One scale that is often used is the consequences scale in the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey (CADS). However, psychometric studies on the CADS are rare and the ones that do exist report varying results. This article aims to address this imbalance by examining the psychometric properties of a Dutch version of the CADS in a large sample of Flemish university and college students. The analyses are based on data collected by the inter-university project 'Head in the clouds', measuring alcohol use among students. In total, 19,253 students participated (22.1% response rate). The CADS scale was measured using 19 consequences, and participants were asked how often they had experienced these on a 6-point scale. Firstly, the factor structure of the CADS was examined. Two models from literature were compared by performing confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) and were adapted if necessary. Secondly, we assessed the composite reliability as well as the convergent, discriminant and concurrent validity. The two-factor model, identifying personal consequences (had a hangover; got nauseated or vomited; missed a class) and social consequences (got into an argument or fight; been criticized by someone I know; done something I later regretted; been hurt or injured) was indicated to be the best model, having both a good model fit and an acceptable composite reliability. In addition, construct validity was evaluated to be acceptable, with good discriminant validity, although the convergent validity of the factor measuring 'social consequences' could be improved. Concurrent validity was evaluated as good. In deciding which model best represents the data, it is crucial that not only the model fit is evaluated, but the importance of factor reliability and validity issues is also taken into account. The two-factor model, identifying personal consequences and social consequences, was concluded to be the best model. This shortened Dutch version of the CADS (CADS_D) is a useful tool to screen alcohol-related consequences among college students.

Effects of organizational complexity and resources on construction site risk.

PubMed

Forteza, Francisco J; Carretero-Gómez, Jose M; Sesé, Albert

2017-09-01

Our research is aimed at studying the relationship between risk level and organizational complexity and resources on constructions sites. Our general hypothesis is that site complexity increases risk, whereas more resources of the structure decrease risk. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) approach was adopted to validate our theoretical model. To develop our study, 957 building sites in Spain were visited and assessed in 2003-2009. All needed data were obtained using a specific tool developed by the authors to assess site risk, structure and resources (Construction Sites Risk Assessment Tool, or CONSRAT). This tool operationalizes the variables to fit our model, specifically, via a site risk index (SRI) and 10 organizational variables. Our random sample is composed largely of small building sites with general high levels of risk, moderate complexity, and low resources on site. The model obtained adequate fit, and results showed empirical evidence that the factors of complexity and resources can be considered predictors of site risk level. Consequently, these results can help companies, managers of construction and regulators to identify which organizational aspects should be improved to prevent risks on sites and consequently accidents. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global sleep quality as a moderator of alcohol consumption and consequences in college students.

PubMed

Kenney, Shannon R; LaBrie, Joseph W; Hummer, Justin F; Pham, Andy T

2012-04-01

The authors examined the relationship between global sleep quality and alcohol risk, including the extent to which global sleep quality moderated the relationship between alcohol use and drinking-related consequences. Global sleep quality was measured using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and alcohol-related consequences were assessed using the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index (RAPI). The sample consisted of 261 college students (61.3% female, 58.2% Caucasian) who completed online surveys. Using a four-step hierarchical multiple regression model, global sleep quality was found to predict alcohol consequences, over and above assessed covariates (demographics and weekly drinking). Further, global sleep quality emerged as a strong moderator in the drinking-consequences relationship such that among heavier drinkers, those with poorer global sleep quality experienced significantly greater alcohol-related harm. Campus health education and alcohol interventions may be adapted to address the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle, both in terms of healthful sleeping and drinking behaviors, which appear to play a strong synergistic role in alcohol-related risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. CIRMIS data system. Volume 4. Driller's logs, stratigraphic cross section and utility routines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedrichs, D.R.

1980-01-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologicmore » systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. The various input parameters required in the analysis are compiled in data systems. The data are organized and prepared by various input subroutines for use by the hydrologic and transport codes. The hydrologic models simulate the groundwater flow systems and provide water flow directions, rates, and velocities as inputs to the transport models. Outputs from the transport models are basically graphs of radionuclide concentration in the groundwater plotted against time. After dilution in the receiving surface-water body (e.g., lake, river, bay), these data are the input source terms for the dose models, if dose assessments are required. The dose models calculate radiation dose to individuals and populations. CIRMIS (Comprehensive Information Retrieval and Model Input Sequence) Data System is a storage and retrieval system for model input and output data, including graphical interpretation and display. This is the fourth of four volumes of the description of the CIRMIS Data System.« less

A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

2010-01-01

The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

Methods applied in cost-effectiveness models for treatment strategies in type 2 diabetes mellitus and their use in Health Technology Assessments: a systematic review of the literature from 2008 to 2013.

PubMed

Charokopou, M; Sabater, F J; Townsend, R; Roudaut, M; McEwan, P; Verheggen, B G

2016-01-01

To identify and compare health-economic models that were developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatments for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and their use within Health Technology Assessments (HTAs). In total, six commonly used databases were searched for articles published between October 2008 and January 2013, using a protocolized search strategy and inclusion criteria. The websites of HTA organizations in nine countries, and proceedings from five relevant conferences, were also reviewed. The identified new health-economic models were qualitatively assessed using six criteria that were developed based on technical components, and characteristics related to the disease or the treatments being assessed. Finally, the number of times the models were applied within HTA reports, published literature, and/or major conferences was determined. Thirteen new models were identified and reviewed in depth. Most of these were based on identical key data sources, and applied a similar model structure, either using Markov modeling or microsimulation techniques. The UKPDS equations and panel regressions were frequently used to estimate the occurrence of diabetes-related complications and the probability of developing risk factors in the long term. The qualitative assessment demonstrated that the CARDIFF, Sheffield T2DM and ECHO T2DM models seem technically equipped to appropriately assess the long-term health-economic consequences of chronic treatments for patients with T2DM. It was observed that the CORE model is the most widely described in literature and conferences, and the most often applied model within HTA submissions, followed by the CARDIFF and UKPDS models. This research provides an overview of T2DM models that were developed between 2008 and January 2013. The outcomes of the qualitative assessments, combined with frequent use in local reimbursement decisions, prove the applicability of the CORE, CARDIFF and UKPDS models to address decision problems related to the long-term clinical and economic consequences of new and existing T2DM treatments.

The implications of rebasing global mean temperature timeseries for GCM based climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2017-04-01

Global climate and earth system models are assessed by comparison with observations through a number of metrics. The InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights in particular their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. This focus on annual mean global mean temperature (hereafter GMT) change is presented as an important element in demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Any new model or new model version whose historic simulations fail to reproduce the "general features " and 20th century trends is likely therefore to undergo further tuning. Thus this focus could have implications for model development. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies i.e. changes with respect to some period. Since the models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K (roughly observed GMT +/- 1.5K) this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We present timeseries of the slow timescale response of the CMIP5 models rebased to late-20th century temperatures and to mid-19th century temperatures. We provide a mathematical interpretation of this approach to model assessment and discuss two consequences. First is a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. Second, is an implication of linearity in the GMT response (to the extent that the slow-timescale response of the historic simulations is consistent with observations, and given their uncertainties). For each individual model these consequences only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a much wider range of GMTs. The analysis suggests that this aspect of model evaluation risks providing a model development pressure which acts against a wide exploration of physically plausible responses; in particular against an exploration of potentially globally significant nonlinear responses and feedbacks. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

Traumatic Brain Injury among US Active Duty Military Personnel and Negative Drinking-Related Consequences

PubMed Central

Adams, Rachel Sayko; Larson, Mary Jo; Corrigan, John D.; Ritter, Grant A.; Williams, Thomas V.

2013-01-01

This study used the 2008 Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors among Active Duty Military Personnel to determine whether traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with past year drinking-related consequences. The study sample included currently-drinking personnel who had a combat deployment in the past year and were home for ≥6 months (N = 3,350). Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the incidence rate ratios of consequences, by TBI-level. Experiencing a TBI with a loss of consciousness >20 minutes was significantly associated with consequences independent of demographics, combat exposure, posttraumatic stress disorder, and binge drinking. The study’s limitations are noted. PMID:23869456

The Role of Citizenship Performance in Academic Achievement and Graduate Employability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poropat, Arthur E.

2011-01-01

Purpose: Employability is a major educational goal, but employability programmes emphasise skill development, while employers value performance. Education acts as a model for employment, so educational performance assessment should be aligned with employment models. Consequently, the aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between…

Quality assessment of protein model-structures based on structural and functional similarities.

PubMed

Konopka, Bogumil M; Nebel, Jean-Christophe; Kotulska, Malgorzata

2012-09-21

Experimental determination of protein 3D structures is expensive, time consuming and sometimes impossible. A gap between number of protein structures deposited in the World Wide Protein Data Bank and the number of sequenced proteins constantly broadens. Computational modeling is deemed to be one of the ways to deal with the problem. Although protein 3D structure prediction is a difficult task, many tools are available. These tools can model it from a sequence or partial structural information, e.g. contact maps. Consequently, biologists have the ability to generate automatically a putative 3D structure model of any protein. However, the main issue becomes evaluation of the model quality, which is one of the most important challenges of structural biology. GOBA--Gene Ontology-Based Assessment is a novel Protein Model Quality Assessment Program. It estimates the compatibility between a model-structure and its expected function. GOBA is based on the assumption that a high quality model is expected to be structurally similar to proteins functionally similar to the prediction target. Whereas DALI is used to measure structure similarity, protein functional similarity is quantified using standardized and hierarchical description of proteins provided by Gene Ontology combined with Wang's algorithm for calculating semantic similarity. Two approaches are proposed to express the quality of protein model-structures. One is a single model quality assessment method, the other is its modification, which provides a relative measure of model quality. Exhaustive evaluation is performed on data sets of model-structures submitted to the CASP8 and CASP9 contests. The validation shows that the method is able to discriminate between good and bad model-structures. The best of tested GOBA scores achieved 0.74 and 0.8 as a mean Pearson correlation to the observed quality of models in our CASP8 and CASP9-based validation sets. GOBA also obtained the best result for two targets of CASP8, and one of CASP9, compared to the contest participants. Consequently, GOBA offers a novel single model quality assessment program that addresses the practical needs of biologists. In conjunction with other Model Quality Assessment Programs (MQAPs), it would prove useful for the evaluation of single protein models.

Workplace-Based Competence Measurement: Developing Innovative Assessment Systems for Tomorrow's VET Programmes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Achtenhagen, Frank; Winther, Esther

2014-01-01

As a consequence of the large-scale assessment studies (TIMMS; PISA) in compulsory schooling, attention is now being given to the modelling and measurement of competencies in initial vocational education and training. This new output-led perspective of teaching/training and learning/working processes demands new approaches to research. Using the…

The application of consequence models in risk assessment: A regulator`s view

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nussey, C.; Carter, D.A.; Cassidy, K.

1995-12-31

Quantified risk assessment (QRA) is a technique for aiding decision making. The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) uses QRA in the Major Hazards (MH) area to formulate advice to Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) on the siting of MH installations and the development of land in the vicinity of existing MH installations. The region around UK MH sites within which LPAs are required to consult HSE on land-use planning matters (i.e. the Consultation Distance (CD)) is increasingly being redefined by adopting a risk based approach. The authors are now in the process of conducting or updated site specific QRAs tomore » redefine CDs. This process enables them to identify risk reduction measures and discuss them with companies, taking into consideration the ALARP--as low as is reasonably practicable--philosophy. The paper outlines the basis of the QRAs and the role of consequence assessment models and procedures in this process, and illustrates by examples the setting of CDs and the application of the ALARP philosophy.« less

Mouse and Rat Models of Induction of Hepatic Fibrosis and Assessment of Portal Hypertension.

PubMed

Klein, Sabine; Schierwagen, Robert; Uschner, Frank Erhard; Trebicka, Jonel

2017-01-01

Portal hypertension either develops due to progressive liver fibrosis or is the consequence of vascular liver diseases such as portal vein thrombosis or non-cirrhotic portal hypertension. This chapter focuses on different rodent models of liver fibrosis with portal hypertension and also in few non-cirrhotic portal hypertension models. Importantly, after the development of portal hypertension, the proper assessment of drug effects in the portal and systemic circulation should be discussed. The last part of the chapter is dedicated in these techniques to assess the in vivo hemodynamics and the ex vivo techniques of the isolated liver perfusion and vascular contractility.

A probabilistic asteroid impact risk model: assessment of sub-300 m impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

2017-06-01

A comprehensive asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain input parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions for objects up to 300 m in diameter. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data have little effect on the metrics of interest.

The Population Consequences of Disturbance Model Application to North Atlantic Right Whales (Eubalaena glacialis)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

from individuals to the population by way of changes in either behavior or physiology, and the revised approach is called PCOD (Population...include modeling fecundity, and exploring the feasibility of incorporating acoustic disturbance and prey variability into the PCOD model...the applicability of the model to assessing the effects of acoustics on the population. We have refined and applied the PCOD model developed for

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Poor adjustment to college life mediates the relationship between drinking motives and alcohol consequences: a look at college adjustment, drinking motives, and drinking outcomes.

PubMed

LaBrie, Joseph W; Ehret, Phillip J; Hummer, Justin F; Prenovost, Katherine

2012-04-01

The current study examined whether the relationship between drinking motives and alcohol-related outcomes was mediated by college adjustment. Participants (N=253) completed an online survey that assessed drinking motives, degree of both positive and negative college adjustment, typical weekly drinking, and past month negative alcohol-related consequences. Structural equation modeling examined negative alcohol consequences as a function of college adjustment, drinking motives, and weekly drinking behavior in college students. Negative college adjustment mediated the relationship between coping drinking motives and drinking consequences. Positive college adjustment was not related to alcohol consumption or consequences. Positive reinforcement drinking motives (i.e. social and enhancement) not only directly predicted consequences, but were partially mediated by weekly drinking and degree of negative college adjustment. Gender specific models revealed that males exhibited more variability in drinking and their positive reinforcement drinking motives were more strongly associated with weekly drinking. Uniquely for females, coping motives were directly and indirectly (via negative adjustment) related to consequences. These findings suggest that interventions which seek to decrease alcohol-related risk may wish to incorporate discussions about strategies for decreasing stress and increasing other factors associated with better college adjustment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CIRMIS Data system. Volume 2. Program listings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedrichs, D.R.

1980-01-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (OWNI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologicmore » systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. The various input parameters required in the analysis are compiled in data systems. The data are organized and prepared by various input subroutines for utilization by the hydraulic and transport codes. The hydrologic models simulate the groundwater flow systems and provide water flow directions, rates, and velocities as inputs to the transport models. Outputs from the transport models are basically graphs of radionuclide concentration in the groundwater plotted against time. After dilution in the receiving surface-water body (e.g., lake, river, bay), these data are the input source terms for the dose models, if dose assessments are required.The dose models calculate radiation dose to individuals and populations. CIRMIS (Comprehensive Information Retrieval and Model Input Sequence) Data System is a storage and retrieval system for model input and output data, including graphical interpretation and display. This is the second of four volumes of the description of the CIRMIS Data System.« less

Integrated Assessment of Health-related Economic Impacts of U.S. Air Pollution Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saari, R. K.; Rausch, S.; Selin, N. E.

2012-12-01

We examine the environmental impacts, health-related economic benefits, and distributional effects of new US regulations to reduce smog from power plants, namely: the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. Using integrated assessment methods, linking atmospheric and economic models, we assess the magnitude of economy-wide effects and distributional consequences that are not captured by traditional regulatory impact assessment methods. We study the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, a modified allowance trading scheme that caps emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide from power plants in the eastern United States and thus reduces ozone and particulate matter pollution. We use results from the regulatory regional air quality model, CAMx (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions), and epidemiologic studies in BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program), to quantify differences in morbidities and mortalities due to this policy. To assess the economy-wide and distributional consequences of these health impacts, we apply a recently developed economic and policy model, the US Regional Energy and Environmental Policy Model (USREP), a multi-region, multi-sector, multi-household, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium economic model of the US that provides a detailed representation of the energy sector, and the ability to represent energy and environmental policies. We add to USREP a representation of air pollution impacts, including the estimation and valuation of health outcomes and their effects on health services, welfare, and factor markets. We find that the economic welfare benefits of the Rule are underestimated by traditional methods, which omit economy-wide impacts. We also quantify the distribution of benefits, which have varying effects across US regions, income groups, and pollutants, and we identify factors influencing this distribution, including the geographic variation of pollution and population as well as underlying economic conditions.

A coupled modeling approach to assess the impact of fuel treatments on post-wildfire runoff and erosion

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The hydrological consequences of wildfires are some of the most significant and long-lasting effects. Since wildfire severity impacts post-fire hydrological response, fuel treatments can be a useful tool for land managers to moderate this response. However, current models focus on only one aspect of...

USE OF REPEATED BRONCHOALVEOLAR LAVAGE IN RABBITS TO ASSESS POLLUTANT-INDUCED LUNG CHANGES IN AN ANIMAL MODEL OF CARDIOVASCULAR (CV) DISEASE.

EPA Science Inventory

Animal models of coronary heart disease (e.g., hyperlipidemic rabbits) are being used to investigate epidemiologic associations between higher levels of air pollution and adverse CV consequences. Mechanisms by which pollutant-induced lung or systemic inflammation leads to acute C...

Summer Versus School-Year Alcohol Use Among Mandated College Students

PubMed Central

Miller, Mary Beth; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Yurasek, Ali M.; Mastroleo, Nadine R.; Borsari, Brian

2016-01-01

Objective: Longitudinal research examining college students’ alcohol use during the summer months, especially in at-risk individuals, is limited. The current study evaluated changes in mandated college students’ alcohol use and related consequences over the summer. Method: Participants (n = 305, 67% male) who had violated campus alcohol policy and were subsequently mandated to treatment completed follow-up assessments at 3, 6, and 9 months. For the majority of students, one of these follow-up assessments occurred over the summer. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to examine changes in alcohol use and related consequences during the school year and summer. Results: Participants reported consuming significantly fewer drinks per occasion, reaching lower peak blood alcohol concentrations, and experiencing fewer alcohol-related consequences during the summer months. All outcomes were mediated by summer housing, indicating that summer influenced alcohol use indirectly through participants’ tendency to live at home. Conclusions: Despite small but significant decreases in alcohol consumption and related consequences when living with a parent/guardian, mandated college students continue to exhibit risky drinking and consequences during the summer months. Given these findings, summer may be an appropriate time to implement prevention and intervention strategies with mandated and other at-risk populations. PMID:26751354

Summer Versus School-Year Alcohol Use Among Mandated College Students.

PubMed

Miller, Mary Beth; Merrill, Jennifer E; Yurasek, Ali M; Mastroleo, Nadine R; Borsari, Brian

2016-01-01

Longitudinal research examining college students' alcohol use during the summer months, especially in at-risk individuals, is limited. The current study evaluated changes in mandated college students' alcohol use and related consequences over the summer. Participants (n = 305, 67% male) who had violated campus alcohol policy and were subsequently mandated to treatment completed follow-up assessments at 3, 6, and 9 months. For the majority of students, one of these follow-up assessments occurred over the summer. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to examine changes in alcohol use and related consequences during the school year and summer. Participants reported consuming significantly fewer drinks per occasion, reaching lower peak blood alcohol concentrations, and experiencing fewer alcohol-related consequences during the summer months. All outcomes were mediated by summer housing, indicating that summer influenced alcohol use indirectly through participants' tendency to live at home. Despite small but significant decreases in alcohol consumption and related consequences when living with a parent/guardian, mandated college students continue to exhibit risky drinking and consequences during the summer months. Given these findings, summer may be an appropriate time to implement prevention and intervention strategies with mandated and other at-risk populations.

The consequences of landscape change on ecological resources: An assessment of the United States mid-Atlantic region, 1973-1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, K.B.; Neale, A.C.; Wade, T.G.; Wickham, J.D.; Cross, C.L.; Edmonds, C.M.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Nash, M.S.; Riitters, K.H.; Smith, E.R.

2001-01-01

Spatially explicit identification of changes in ecological conditions over large areas is key to targeting and prioritizing areas for environmental protection and restoration by managers at watershed, basin, and regional scales. A critical limitation to this point has been the development of methods to conduct such broad-scale assessments. Field-based methods have proven to be too costly and too inconsistent in their application to make estimates of ecological conditions over large areas. New spatial data derived from satellite imagery and other sources, the development of statistical models relating landscape composition and pattern to ecological endpoints, and geographic information systems (GIS) make it possible to evaluate ecological conditions at multiple scales over broad geographic regions. In this study, we demonstrate the application of spatially distributed models for bird habitat quality and nitrogen yield to streams to assess the consequences of landcover change across the mid-Atlantic region between the 1970s and 1990s. Moreover, we present a way to evaluate spatial concordance between models related to different environmental endpoints. Results of this study should help environmental managers in the mid-Atlantic region target those areas in need of conservation and protection.

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

2016-01-01

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Modeling the Severity of Drinking Consequences in First-Year College Women: An Item Response Theory Analysis of the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index*

PubMed Central

Cohn, Amy M.; Hagman, Brett T.; Graff, Fiona S.; Noel, Nora E.

2011-01-01

Objective: The present study examined the latent continuum of alcohol-related negative consequences among first-year college women using methods from item response theory and classical test theory. Method: Participants (N = 315) were college women in their freshman year who reported consuming any alcohol in the past 90 days and who completed assessments of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related negative consequences using the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index. Results: Item response theory analyses showed poor model fit for five items identified in the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index. Two-parameter item response theory logistic models were applied to the remaining 18 items to examine estimates of item difficulty (i.e., severity) and discrimination parameters. The item difficulty parameters ranged from 0.591 to 2.031, and the discrimination parameters ranged from 0.321 to 2.371. Classical test theory analyses indicated that the omission of the five misfit items did not significantly alter the psychometric properties of the construct. Conclusions: Findings suggest that those consequences that had greater severity and discrimination parameters may be used as screening items to identify female problem drinkers at risk for an alcohol use disorder. PMID:22051212

Potential Future Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cline, M.; Perry, F. V.; Valentine, G. A.; Smistad, E.

2005-12-01

Location, timing, and volumes of post-Miocene volcanic activity, along with expert judgement, provide the basis for assessing the probability of future volcanism intersecting a proposed repository for nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Analog studies of eruptive centers in the region that may represent the style and extent of possible future igneous activity at Yucca Mountain have aided in defining the consequence scenarios for intrusion into and eruption through a proposed repository. Modeling of magmatic processes related to magma/proposed repository interactions has been used to assess the potential consequences of a future igneous event through a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. Results of work to date indicate future igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region has a very low probability of intersecting the proposed repository. Probability of a future event intersecting a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain is approximately 1.7 X 10-8 per year. Since completion of the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) in 1996, anomalies representing potential buried volcanic centers have been identified from aeromagnetic surveys. A re-assessment of the hazard is currently underway to evaluate the probability of intersection in light of new information and to estimate the probability of one or more volcanic conduits located in the proposed repository along a dike that intersects the proposed repository. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations for siting and licensing a proposed repository require that the consequences of a disruptive event (igneous event) with annual probability greater than 1 X 10-8 be evaluated. Two consequence scenarios are considered; 1) igneous intrusion-groundwater transport case and 2) volcanic eruptive case. These scenarios equate to a dike or dike swarm intersecting repository drifts containing waste packages, formation of a conduit leading to a volcanic eruption through the repository that carries the contents of the waste packages into the atmosphere, deposition of a tephra sheet, and redistribution of the contaminated ash. In both cases radioactive material is released to the accessible environment either through groundwater transport or through the atmospheric dispersal and deposition. Six Quaternary volcanic centers exist within 20 km of Yucca Mountain. Lathrop Wells cone (LWC), the youngest (approximately 75,000 yrs), is a well-preserved cinder cone with associated flows and tephra sheet that provides an excellent analogue for consequence studies related to future volcanism. Cone, lavas, hydrovolcanic ash, and ash-fall tephra have been examined to estimate eruptive volume and eruption type. LWC ejecta volumes suggest basaltic volcanism may be waning in the Yucca Mountain region.. The eruptive products indicate a sequence of initial fissure fountaining, early Strombolian ash and lapilli deposition forming the scoria cone, a brief hydrovolcanic pulse (possibly limited to the NW sector), and a violent Strombolian phase. Mathematical models have been developed to represent magmatic processes and their consequences on proposed repository performance. These models address dike propagation, magma interaction and flow into drifts, eruption through the proposed repository, and post intrusion/eruption effects. These models continue to be refined to reduce the uncertainty associated with the consequences from a possible future igneous event.

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tavoni, Massimo; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan

2014-12-15

Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

Assessing Students' Sentiments towards the Use of a Building Information Modelling (BIM) Learning Platform in a Construction Project Management Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suwal, Sunil; Singh, Vishal

2018-01-01

Building Information Modelling (BIM) tools and processes are increasingly adopted and implemented in the construction industry. Consequently, BIM education is considered increasingly important in Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) education. While most of the research and literature on BIM education in engineering studies has focused…

Evaluating the effects of dam breach methodologies on Consequence Estimation through Sensitivity Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalyanapu, A. J.; Thames, B. A.

2013-12-01

Dam breach modeling often includes application of models that are sophisticated, yet computationally intensive to compute flood propagation at high temporal and spatial resolutions. This results in a significant need for computational capacity that requires development of newer flood models using multi-processor and graphics processing techniques. Recently, a comprehensive benchmark exercise titled the 12th Benchmark Workshop on Numerical Analysis of Dams, is organized by the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD) to evaluate the performance of these various tools used for dam break risk assessment. The ICOLD workshop is focused on estimating the consequences of failure of a hypothetical dam near a hypothetical populated area with complex demographics, and economic activity. The current study uses this hypothetical case study and focuses on evaluating the effects of dam breach methodologies on consequence estimation and analysis. The current study uses ICOLD hypothetical data including the topography, dam geometric and construction information, land use/land cover data along with socio-economic and demographic data. The objective of this study is to evaluate impacts of using four different dam breach methods on the consequence estimates used in the risk assessments. The four methodologies used are: i) Froehlich (1995), ii) MacDonald and Langridge-Monopolis 1984 (MLM), iii) Von Thun and Gillete 1990 (VTG), and iv) Froehlich (2008). To achieve this objective, three different modeling components were used. First, using the HEC-RAS v.4.1, dam breach discharge hydrographs are developed. These hydrographs are then provided as flow inputs into a two dimensional flood model named Flood2D-GPU, which leverages the computer's graphics card for much improved computational capabilities of the model input. Lastly, outputs from Flood2D-GPU, including inundated areas, depth grids, velocity grids, and flood wave arrival time grids, are input into HEC-FIA, which provides the consequence assessment for the solution to the problem statement. For the four breach methodologies, a sensitivity analysis of four breach parameters, breach side slope (SS), breach width (Wb), breach invert elevation (Elb), and time of failure (tf), is conducted. Up to, 68 simulations are computed to produce breach hydrographs in HEC-RAS for input into Flood2D-GPU. The Flood2D-GPU simulation results were then post-processed in HEC-FIA to evaluate: Total Population at Risk (PAR), 14-yr and Under PAR (PAR14-), 65-yr and Over PAR (PAR65+), Loss of Life (LOL) and Direct Economic Impact (DEI). The MLM approach resulted in wide variability in simulated minimum and maximum values of PAR, PAR 65+ and LOL estimates. For PAR14- and DEI, Froehlich (1995) resulted in lower values while MLM resulted in higher estimates. This preliminary study demonstrated the relative performance of four commonly used dam breach methodologies and their impacts on consequence estimation.

Quality assessment of protein model-structures based on structural and functional similarities

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Experimental determination of protein 3D structures is expensive, time consuming and sometimes impossible. A gap between number of protein structures deposited in the World Wide Protein Data Bank and the number of sequenced proteins constantly broadens. Computational modeling is deemed to be one of the ways to deal with the problem. Although protein 3D structure prediction is a difficult task, many tools are available. These tools can model it from a sequence or partial structural information, e.g. contact maps. Consequently, biologists have the ability to generate automatically a putative 3D structure model of any protein. However, the main issue becomes evaluation of the model quality, which is one of the most important challenges of structural biology. Results GOBA - Gene Ontology-Based Assessment is a novel Protein Model Quality Assessment Program. It estimates the compatibility between a model-structure and its expected function. GOBA is based on the assumption that a high quality model is expected to be structurally similar to proteins functionally similar to the prediction target. Whereas DALI is used to measure structure similarity, protein functional similarity is quantified using standardized and hierarchical description of proteins provided by Gene Ontology combined with Wang's algorithm for calculating semantic similarity. Two approaches are proposed to express the quality of protein model-structures. One is a single model quality assessment method, the other is its modification, which provides a relative measure of model quality. Exhaustive evaluation is performed on data sets of model-structures submitted to the CASP8 and CASP9 contests. Conclusions The validation shows that the method is able to discriminate between good and bad model-structures. The best of tested GOBA scores achieved 0.74 and 0.8 as a mean Pearson correlation to the observed quality of models in our CASP8 and CASP9-based validation sets. GOBA also obtained the best result for two targets of CASP8, and one of CASP9, compared to the contest participants. Consequently, GOBA offers a novel single model quality assessment program that addresses the practical needs of biologists. In conjunction with other Model Quality Assessment Programs (MQAPs), it would prove useful for the evaluation of single protein models. PMID:22998498

An occurrence model for the national assessment of volcanogenic beryllium deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foley, Nora K.; Seal, Robert R.; Piatak, Nadine M.; Hetland, Brianna

2010-01-01

The general occurrence model summarized here is intended to provide a descriptive basis for the identification and assessment of undiscovered beryllium deposits of a type and style similar to those found at Spor Mountain, Juab County, Utah. The assessment model is restricted in its application in order to provide a coherent basis for assessing the probability of the occurrence of similar economic deposits using the current U.S. Geological Survey methodology. The model is intended to be used to identify tracts of land where volcanogenic epithermal replacement-type beryllium deposits hosted by metaluminous to peraluminous rhyolite are most likely to occur. Only a limited number of deposits or districts of this type are known, and only the ores of the Spor Mountain district have been studied in detail. The model highlights those distinctive aspects and features of volcanogenic epithermal beryllium deposits that pertain to the development of assessment criteria and puts forward a baseline analysis of the geoenvironmental consequences of mining deposits of this type.

A forecast of broadcast satellite communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martino, J. P.; Lenz, R. C., Jr.

1977-01-01

This paper presents forecasts of likely changes in broadcast satellite technology, the technology of ground terminals, and the technology of terrestrial communications competitive with satellites. The impacts of these changes in technology are then assessed, using a cross-impact model of U.S. domestic telecommunications, to determine the consequences of various possible changes in communications satellite technology. These consequences are discussed in terms of various possible services, for households, businesses, and specialized customers, which might become economically viable as a result of improvements in satellite technology.

Compulsive methamphetamine taking under punishment is associated with greater cue-induced drug seeking in rats.

PubMed

Torres, Oscar V; Jayanthi, Subramanian; Ladenheim, Bruce; McCoy, Michael T; Krasnova, Irina N; Cadet, Jean Lud

2017-05-30

Methamphetamine (METH) addicts lose control over drug consumption despite suffering multiple adverse medicolegal consequences. To mimic the negative events associated with drug addiction in humans, we recently introduced a rat model of self-administration (SA) with response-contingent punishment on METH intake. These procedures allowed us to distinguish between two addiction-like phenotypes in rats, those that sustained METH taking despite negative consequences (shock-resistant, SR) and rats that significantly reduced their METH intake (shock-sensitive, SS). Here, we further developed our adverse consequence model and examined incubation of METH craving by measuring cue-induced drug seeking in SR and SS rats. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were trained to self-administer METH (0.1mg/kg/injection) or saline intravenously (i.v.) during twenty-two 9-h sessions that consisted of 3 separate 3-h sessions separated by 30min. Subsequently, rats were subjected to incremental footshocks during thirteen additional 9-h METH SA sessions performed in a fashion identical to the training phase. Cue-induced drug craving was then assessed at 2 and 21days after the footshock phase. All rats escalated their intake of METH, with both phenotypes showing similar drug taking patterns during SA training. In addition, rats that continued their METH intake despite negative consequences showed even greater cue-induced drug craving following withdrawal than the rats that reduced METH intake following negative consequences. Taken together, our adverse consequence-based model highlights the possibility of identifying rats by addiction-like phenotypes and subsequent vulnerability to relapse-like behaviors. The use of similar SA models should help in the development of better therapeutic approaches to treat different stages of METH addiction. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessment of ecologic regression in the study of lung cancer and indoor radon.

PubMed

Stidley, C A; Samet, J M

1994-02-01

Ecologic regression studies conducted to assess the cancer risk of indoor radon to the general population are subject to methodological limitations, and they have given seemingly contradictory results. The authors use simulations to examine the effects of two major methodological problems that affect these studies: measurement error and misspecification of the risk model. In a simulation study of the effect of measurement error caused by the sampling process used to estimate radon exposure for a geographic unit, both the effect of radon and the standard error of the effect estimate were underestimated, with greater bias for smaller sample sizes. In another simulation study, which addressed the consequences of uncontrolled confounding by cigarette smoking, even small negative correlations between county geometric mean annual radon exposure and the proportion of smokers resulted in negative average estimates of the radon effect. A third study considered consequences of using simple linear ecologic models when the true underlying model relation between lung cancer and radon exposure is nonlinear. These examples quantify potential biases and demonstrate the limitations of estimating risks from ecologic studies of lung cancer and indoor radon.

The relationship between frequency of performance and perceived importance of health behaviours.

PubMed

Nudelman, Gabriel; Ivanova, Eliza

2018-04-01

The relationship between performance of health behaviours and their perceived importance was examined among 250 adults. Frequency of performance and perceived importance of 21 health behaviours, self-assessed health and the Big Five personality traits were measured. As expected, importance and performance were positively correlated. Self-assessed health was more strongly associated with performance than importance, and a model wherein importance affects performance, which in turn affects self-assessed health, was superior to a model wherein performance affects importance. The Big Five significantly explained performance, particularly conscientiousness, and importance explained performance beyond this effect. Consequently, importance perceptions should be considered when developing behavioural interventions.

Beyond drinking: differential effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors on alcohol-related adverse consequences across European countries.

PubMed

Kuendig, Hervé; Plant, Moira L; Plant, Martin A; Kuntsche, Sandra; Miller, Patrick; Gmel, Gerhard; Ahlström, Salme; Bergmark, Karin Helmersson; Olafsdóttir, Hildigunnur; Elekes, Zsuzsanna; Csemy, Ladislav; Knibbe, Ronald

2008-01-01

Evidence underlines the importance of drinking patterns and individual characteristics in experiencing adverse alcohol-related consequences; however, little research has been conducted to explore who does and who does not experience consequences with similar drinking patterns. Using data from seven European countries, this study assesses the association between demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and six adverse consequences. Conditional logistic regression models were estimated, cases (experiencing a consequence) being matched to controls (not experiencing the consequence) by drinking patterns. In general, protective effects with increasing age and being in a partnership were consistent. Gender effects were mixed, but mainly protective for women. Educational achievement and economic status showed consistent effects across countries, but different directions of effect across consequences. Consequences mostly associated with individual drinking pattern (injury, blackout, and loss of control over drinking) exhibited similar patterns of associations, but varying ones arose for consequences additionally influenced by societal reaction to drinking (guilt, role failure, and pressure to cut down drinking). Differences in strengths and directions of effects across consequences pointed to the possibility that the reporting of adverse consequences is not only influenced by alcohol consumption, but also by attributional processes related to demographic and socioeconomic statuses. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Assessing watershed-wildfire risks on National Forest System lands in the Rocky Mountain Region of the United States

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Paul G. Langowski; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Jessica R. Haas; Elise M. Bowne

2013-01-01

Wildfires can cause significant negative impacts to water quality with resultant consequences for the environment and human health and safety, as well as incurring substantial rehabilitation and water treatment costs. In this paper we will illustrate how state-of-the-art wildfire simulation modeling and geospatial risk assessment methods can be brought to bear to...

Evidence from clinical and animal model studies of the long-term and transgenerational impact of stress on DNA methylation

PubMed Central

Blaze, Jennifer; Roth, Tania L.

2015-01-01

While it is well-known that stress during development and adulthood can confer long-term neurobiological and behavioral consequences, investigators have only recently begun to assess epigenetic modifications associated with these consequences. In this review, we highlight clinical research and work with animal models that provide evidence of the impact of stressful experiences either during the perinatal period or adulthood on DNA methylation and behavior. Additionally, we explore the more controversial concept of transgenerational inheritance, including that associated with preconception stress experienced by the mother or father. Finally, we discuss challenges associated with the idea of transgenerational epigenetics and for the field of epigenetics in general. PMID:25917771

Unintended environmental consequences and co-benefits of economic restructuring.

PubMed

Liang, Sai; Xu, Ming; Suh, Sangwon; Tan, Raymond R

2013-11-19

Current economic restructuring policies have ignored unintended environmental consequences and cobenefits, the understanding of which can provide foundations for effective policy decisions for green economy transformation. Using the input-output life cycle assessment model and taking China as an example, we find that household consumption, fixed capital formation, and export are main drivers to China's environmental impacts. At the product scale, major contributors to environmental impacts vary across different types of impacts. Stimulating the development of seven strategic emerging industries will cause unintended consequences, such as increasing nonferrous metal ore usage, terrestrial acidification, photochemical oxidant formation, human toxicity, and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Limiting the surplus outputs in the construction materials industry and metallurgy industry may only help mitigate some of the environmental impacts caused by China's regulated pollutants, with little effect on reducing other impacts, such as marine eutrophication, terrestrial acidification, photochemical oxidant formation, and particulate matter formation. However, it will bring cobenefits by simultaneously reducing mineral ore usage, human toxicity, marine ecotoxicity, and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Sustainable materials management and integrated policy modeling are possible ways for policy-making to avoid unintended consequences and effectively utilize cobenefits.

Weather modeling for hazard and consequence assessment operations during the 2006 Winter Olympic Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, P.; Trigg, J. L.; Stauffer, D.; Hunter, G.; McQueen, J.

2006-05-01

Consequence assessment (CA) operations are those processes that attempt to mitigate negative impacts of incidents involving hazardous materials such as chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high explosive (CBRNE) agents, facilities, weapons, or transportation. Incident types range from accidental spillage of chemicals at/en route to/from a manufacturing plant, to the deliberate use of radiological or chemical material as a weapon in a crowded city. The impacts of these incidents are highly variable, from little or no impact to catastrophic loss of life and property. Local and regional scale atmospheric conditions strongly influence atmospheric transport and dispersion processes in the boundary layer, and the extent and scope of the spread of dangerous materials in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, CA personnel charged with managing the consequences of CBRNE incidents must have detailed knowledge of current and future weather conditions to accurately model potential effects. A meteorology team was established at the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) to provide weather support to CA personnel operating DTRA's CA tools, such as the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) tool. The meteorology team performs three main functions: 1) regular provision of meteorological data for use by personnel using HPAC, 2) determination of the best performing medium-range model forecast for the 12 - 48 hour timeframe and 3) provision of real-time help-desk support to users regarding acquisition and use of weather in HPAC CA applications. The normal meteorology team operations were expanded during a recent modeling project which took place during the 2006 Winter Olympic Games. The meteorology team took advantage of special weather observation datasets available in the domain of the Winter Olympic venues and undertook a project to improve weather modeling at high resolution. The varied and complex terrain provided a special challenge to the modelers on the meteorology team. Some of the Olympic venues were located in the mountains to the west of Torino, while the rest were located on the relatively flat plain in and around the cities of Pinerolo and Torino to the east. DTRA partners at Pennsylvania State University (PSU) and the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) established data collection and assimilation, and forecast modeling processes that used special weather station observations provided by the Area Previsione e Monitoraggio Ambientale of Italy's ARPA Piemonte. At PSU a version of the MM5 was especially prepared to use observation data to forecast weather in a four-nest configuration. Two other DTRA partners provided independent weather forecast models against which the PSU model data were compared. The U.S. Air Force Weather Agency provided its MM5 forecast model data and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction provided data from a special version of their WRF model. The project produced many opportunities to improve the modeling and forecasting capability at DTRA. DTRA and its partners plan to expand upon this experience during upcoming field tests, and to further improve and expand the capability to provide accurate high-resolution weather forecast information to hazard and consequence assessment operations.

APPLICATION OF LAND-COVER DATA FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

In many parts of the United States, urbanization is a pervasive dynamic that has many environmental consequences. Land-cover and related (e.g. Landsat) data are fundamental for studying urbanization itself and its environmental effects.

Well established models in economic...

RiskScape Volcano: Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligne, Natalia; King, Andrew; Jolly, Gill; Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Tom; Lindsay, Jan

2013-04-01

RiskScape is a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand that models the risk and impact of various natural hazards on a given built environment. RiskScape has a modular structure: the hazard module models hazard exposure (e.g., ash thickness at a given location), the asset module catalogues assets (built environment, infrastructure, and people) and their attributes exposed to the hazard, and the vulnerability module models the consequences of asset exposure to the hazard. Hazards presently included in RiskScape are earthquakes, river floods, tsunamis, windstorms, and ash from volcanic eruptions (specifically from Ruapehu). Here we present our framework for incorporating other volcanic hazards (e.g., pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, lahars, ground deformation) into RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability. We also will discuss the challenges of evaluating risk for 'point source' (e.g., stratovolcanoes) vs 'diffuse' (e.g., volcanic fields) volcanism using Ruapehu and the Auckland volcanic field as examples. Once operational, RiskScape Volcano will be a valuable resource both in New Zealand and internationally as a practical tool for evaluating risk and also as an example for how to predict the consequences of volcanic eruptions on both rural and urban environments.

Fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of radioactive material railway transportation.

PubMed

Avramenko, M; Bolyatko, V; Kosterev, V

2005-01-01

Transportation of radioactive materials is obviously accompanied by a certain risk. A model for risk assessment of emergency situations and terrorist attacks may be useful for choosing possible routes and for comparing the various defence strategies. In particular, risk assessment is crucial for safe transportation of excess weapons-grade plutonium arising from the removal of plutonium from military employment. A fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of railway transportation has been developed taking into account the different natures of risk-affecting parameters (probabilistic and not probabilistic but fuzzy). Fuzzy set theory methods as well as standard methods of probability theory have been used for quantitative risk assessment. Information-preserving transformations are applied to realise the correct aggregation of probabilistic and fuzzy parameters. Estimations have also been made of the inhalation doses resulting from possible accidents during plutonium transportation. The obtained data show the scale of possible consequences that may arise from plutonium transportation accidents.

The Common Risk Model for Dams: A Portfolio Approach to Security Risk Assessments

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

and threat estimates in a way that accounts for the relationships among these variables. The CRM -D can effectively quantify the benefits of...consequence, vulnerability, and threat estimates in a way that properly accounts for the relationships among these variables. The CRM -D can effectively...Common RiskModel ( CRM ) for evaluating and comparing risks associated with the nation’s critical infrastructure. This model incorporates commonly used risk

Gender matters: the relationship between social anxiety and alcohol-related consequences.

PubMed

Schry, Amie R; Norberg, Melissa M; Maddox, Brenna B; White, Susan W

2014-01-01

Identification of risk factors for alcohol-related consequences is an important public health concern. Both gender and social anxiety have been associated with alcohol-related consequences broadly, but it is unknown whether these variables are differentially related to specific types of alcohol-related consequences for American college students. In the present study, 573 undergraduate students (M(age) = 19.86 years, SD = 1.40; range 18 to 25; 68.9% female) completed an on-line assessment of social anxiety, alcohol use, and four types of alcohol-related consequences (personal, social, physical, and role). Poisson regressions were run to examine social anxiety, gender, and the interaction between social anxiety and gender as predictors of each type of alcohol-related consequences. After controlling for alcohol use, social anxiety was positively associated with all four types of consequences, and females endorsed higher rates of physical, personal, and role consequences. The interaction between social anxiety and gender was statistically significant only for physical consequences, with social anxiety having a stronger effect for males. These findings, which diverge somewhat from those of a prior study with Australian college students, are discussed in the context of a biopsychosocial model of social anxiety and substance use problems. This study highlights the importance of further investigating cultural differences in the relationships among social anxiety, gender, and alcohol-related consequences.

A tutorial on count regression and zero-altered count models for longitudinal substance use data

PubMed Central

Atkins, David C.; Baldwin, Scott A.; Zheng, Cheng; Gallop, Robert J.; Neighbors, Clayton

2012-01-01

Critical research questions in the study of addictive behaviors concern how these behaviors change over time - either as the result of intervention or in naturalistic settings. The combination of count outcomes that are often strongly skewed with many zeroes (e.g., days using, number of total drinks, number of drinking consequences) with repeated assessments (e.g., longitudinal follow-up after intervention or daily diary data) present challenges for data analyses. The current article provides a tutorial on methods for analyzing longitudinal substance use data, focusing on Poisson, zero-inflated, and hurdle mixed models, which are types of hierarchical or multilevel models. Two example datasets are used throughout, focusing on drinking-related consequences following an intervention and daily drinking over the past 30 days, respectively. Both datasets as well as R, SAS, Mplus, Stata, and SPSS code showing how to fit the models are available on a supplemental website. PMID:22905895

Modeling a Civil Event Case Study for Consequence Management Using the IMPRINT Forces Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gacy, Marc; Gosakan, Mala; Eckdahl, Angela; Miller, Jeffrey R.

2012-01-01

A critical challenge in the Consequence Management (CM) domain is the appropriate allocation of necessary and skilled military and civilian personnel and materiel resources in unexpected emergencies. To aid this process we used the Forces module in the Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT). This module enables analysts to enter personnel and equipment capabilities, prioritized schedules and numbers available, along with unexpected emergency requirements in order to assess force response requirements. Using a suspected terrorist threat on a college campus, we developed a test case model which exercised the capabilities of the module, including the scope and scale of operations. The model incorporates data from multiple sources, including daily schedules and frequency of events such as fire calls. Our preliminary results indicate that the model can predict potential decreases in civilian emergency response coverage due to an involved unplanned incident requiring significant portions of police, fire and civil responses teams.

Nachlassender Nitratabbau im Grundwasser und deren Folgen - abgestufte modellgestützte Bewertungsansätze

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilde, Siegfried; Hansen, Carsten; Bergmann, Axel

2017-11-01

In many water catchment areas, denitrification processes in aquifers ensure lower nitrate contamination in groundwater. The denitrification capacity of aquifers mainly depends on organic carbon and iron disulfide which, being finite resources, are susceptible to depletion. This will generally result in increasing nitrate concentrations in groundwater. Within the scope of a DVGW-supported research project, consequences of a decreasing denitrification capacity in aquifers have been investigated and evaluated in 38 water catchment areas. A scaled four-stage evaluation procedure enables adapting to specific regional settings and assessment requirements. Based on measured and predicted nitrate concentrations in raw water, the "sustainability" of groundwater resources management has been assessed. Hydrogeochemical models and methods of varying complexity were applied. Thus, consequences and risks of nitrate pollution in raw water can be identified and assessed, and effects of groundwater protection measures can be shown.

Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farcas, Adrian; Thompson, Paul M.; Merchant, Nathan D., E-mail: nathan.merchant@cefas.co.uk

Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliarmore » with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.« less

Preliminary results of consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident using Thai meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, K.; Lawawirojwong, S.; Promping, J.

2017-06-01

Consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident is one of the important elements of the risk assessment of a nuclear power plant. It is widely known that the meteorological conditions can significantly influence the outcomes of such assessment, since it determines the results of the calculation of the radionuclide environmental transport. This study aims to assess the impacts of the meteorological conditions to the results of the consequence assessment. The consequence assessment code, OSCAAR, of Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is used for the assessment. The results of the consequence assessment using Thai meteorological data are compared with those using Japanese meteorological data. The Thai case has following characteristics. Low wind speed made the radionuclides concentrate at the center comparing to the Japanese case. The squalls induced the peaks in the ground concentration distribution. The evacuated land is larger than the Japanese case though the relocated land is smaller, which is attributed to the concentration of the radionuclides near the release point.

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto andmore » away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.« less

Consequences of land-cover misclassification in models of impervious surface

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, G.

2007-01-01

Model estimates of impervious area as a function of landcover area may be biased and imprecise because of errors in the land-cover classification. This investigation of the effects of land-cover misclassification on impervious surface models that use National Land Cover Data (NLCD) evaluates the consequences of adjusting land-cover within a watershed to reflect uncertainty assessment information. Model validation results indicate that using error-matrix information to adjust land-cover values used in impervious surface models does not substantially improve impervious surface predictions. Validation results indicate that the resolution of the landcover data (Level I and Level II) is more important in predicting impervious surface accurately than whether the land-cover data have been adjusted using information in the error matrix. Level I NLCD, adjusted for land-cover misclassification, is preferable to the other land-cover options for use in models of impervious surface. This result is tied to the lower classification error rates for the Level I NLCD. ?? 2007 American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing.

Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

2015-07-01

The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable shoreline risk levels from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - Portuguese Continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time. Shoreline risks can be computed in real-time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns, "hot spots" or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug positioning and implementation of dynamic risk-based vessel traffic monitoring.

Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creutzig, Felix; Corbera, Esteve; Bolwig, Simon; Hunsberger, Carol

2013-09-01

Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods that these models do not consider. Maintaining and enhancing robust livelihoods upon bioenergy deployment is an equally important sustainability goal that warrants greater attention. The social implications of biofuel production are complex, varied and place-specific, difficult to model, operationalize and quantify. However, a rapidly developing body of social science literature is advancing the understanding of these interactions. In this letter we link human geography research on the interaction between biofuel crops and livelihoods in developing countries to integrated assessments on biofuels. We review case-study research focused on first-generation biofuel crops to demonstrate that food, income, land and other assets such as health are key livelihood dimensions that can be impacted by such crops and we highlight how place-specific and global dynamics influence both aggregate and distributional outcomes across these livelihood dimensions. We argue that place-specific production models and land tenure regimes mediate livelihood outcomes, which are also in turn affected by global and regional markets and their resulting equilibrium dynamics. The place-specific perspective suggests that distributional consequences are a crucial complement to aggregate outcomes; this has not been given enough weight in comprehensive assessments to date. By narrowing the gap between place-specific case studies and global models, our discussion offers a route towards integrating livelihood and equity considerations into scenarios of future bioenergy deployment, thus contributing to a key challenge in sustainability sciences.

Short Course Introduction to Quantitative Mineral Resource Assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Donald A.

2007-01-01

This is an abbreviated text supplementing the content of three sets of slides used in a short course that has been presented by the author at several workshops. The slides should be viewed in the order of (1) Introduction and models, (2) Delineation and estimation, and (3) Combining estimates and summary. References cited in the slides are listed at the end of this text. The purpose of the three-part form of mineral resource assessments discussed in the accompanying slides is to make unbiased quantitative assessments in a format needed in decision-support systems so that consequences of alternative courses of action can be examined. The three-part form of mineral resource assessments was developed to assist policy makers evaluate the consequences of alternative courses of action with respect to land use and mineral-resource development. The audience for three-part assessments is a governmental or industrial policy maker, a manager of exploration, a planner of regional development, or similar decision-maker. Some of the tools and models presented here will be useful for selection of exploration sites, but that is a side benefit, not the goal. To provide unbiased information, we recommend the three-part form of mineral resource assessments where general locations of undiscovered deposits are delineated from a deposit type's geologic setting, frequency distributions of tonnages and grades of well-explored deposits serve as models of grades and tonnages of undiscovered deposits, and number of undiscovered deposits are estimated probabilistically by type. The internally consistent descriptive, grade and tonnage, deposit density, and economic models used in the design of the three-part form of assessments reduce the chances of biased estimates of the undiscovered resources. What and why quantitative resource assessments: The kind of assessment recommended here is founded in decision analysis in order to provide a framework for making decisions concerning mineral resources under conditions of uncertainty. What this means is that we start with the question of what kinds of questions is the decision maker trying to resolve and what forms of information would aid in resolving these questions. Some applications of mineral resource assessments: To plan and guide exploration programs, to assist in land use planning, to plan the location of infrastructure, to estimate mineral endowment, and to identify deposits that present special environmental challenges. Why not just rank prospects / areas? Need for financial analysis, need for comparison with other land uses, need for comparison with distant tracts of land, need to know how uncertain the estimates are, need for consideration of economic and environmental consequences of possible development. Our goal is to provide unbiased information useful to decision-makers.

Evaluating Adult's Competency: Application of the Competency Assessment Process

PubMed Central

Tétreault, Sylvie; Landry, Marie-Pier

2015-01-01

Competency assessment of adults with cognitive impairment or mental illness is a complex process that can have significant consequences for their rights. Some models put forth in the scientific literature have been proposed to guide health and social service professionals with this assessment process, but none of these appear to be complete. A new model, the Competency Assessment Process (CAP), was presented and validated in other studies. This paper adds to this corpus by presenting both the CAP model and the results of a survey given to health and social service professionals on its practical application in their clinical practice. The survey was administered to 35 participants trained in assessing competency following the CAP model. The results show that 40% of participants use the CAP to guide their assessment and the majority of those who do not yet use it plan to do so in the future. A large majority of participants consider this to be a relevant model and believe that all interdisciplinary teams should use it. These results support the relevance of the CAP model. Further research is planned to continue the study of the application of CAP in healthcare facilities. PMID:26257978

GIS-based integrated assessment and decision support system for land use planning in consideration of carbon sequestration benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Chen, J. M.; Li, Manchun; Ju, Weimin

2007-06-01

As the major eligible land use activities in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), afforestation and reforestation offer opportunities and potential economic benefits for developing countries to participate in carbon-trade in the potential international carbon (C) sink markets. However, the design and selection of appropriate afforestation and reforestation locations in CDM are complex processes which need integrated assessment (IA) of C sequestration (CS) potential, environmental effects, and socio-economic impacts. This paper promotes the consideration of CS benefits in local land use planning and presents a GIS-based integrated assessment and spatial decision support system (IA-SDSS) to support decision-making on 'where' and 'how' to afforest. It integrates an Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Model (InTEC) and a GIS platform for modeling regional long-term CS potential and assessment of geo-referenced land use criteria including CS consequence, and produces ranking of plantation schemes with different tree species using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Three land use scenarios are investigated: (i) traditional land use planning criteria without C benefits, (ii) land use for CS with low C price, and (iii) land use for CS with high price. Different scenarios and consequences will influence the weights of tree-species selection in the AHP decision process.

Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Daniel McKenney; John Pedlar; Frank Koch; David Cook

2009-01-01

In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economic consequences associated with non-indigenous species in north america and elsewhere. Assessments of risk and impacts remain difficult due to...

Assessing the Impacts of Multiple Breadbasket Failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casellas Connors, J. P.; Janetos, A.

2016-12-01

A relatively small area of the world accounts for a large proportion of total global cereal production, with most of the area devoted to the production of the world's three major cereal crops, rice, wheat and maize. An extensive literature of the sensitivity of agricultural productivity of these crops, and many others, has arisen over the past 25 years, with a general consensus that continued change in the physical climate system will very likely increase the difficulty of agricultural production in areas of the world that are already marginal with respect to production. But what this research only rarely does is assess the influence of extreme events in shocking agricultural production, and how the rest of the agricultural system reacts, in terms of prices, food insecurity, subsequent land-use change, and terrestrial carbon emissions, among many other possible responses. Because the agricultural system is interlinked with energy systems, food distribution and transportation systems, and economic systems, models that focus only on agricultural productivity can only provide a unidimensional view of the magnitude of potential impacts. We know such impacts can occur as a consequence of extreme climatic events, because they have - the impact of the severe regional drought and heat wave on the Russian and Ukrainian wheat harvests in 2010 had global consequences for food prices, just as one example. In this paper, we use an Integrated Assessment Model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to investigate the potential outcomes of both moderate and severe shocks to agricultural productivity in the major breadbaskets of the world - both singly and in combination. The results demonstrate clearly that there are likely to be multidimensional consequences from the kinds of shocks that are possible from a rapidly changing climate system, especially when combined with other demographic and economic trends in the coming decades. These results are only one aspect of calculating a risk profile - it will require process, modeling, and statistical research to calculate the probability of such events occurring, but it is a first attempt to understand their potential magnitude.

Is there a metric for mineral deposit occurrence probabilities?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, L.J.; Menzie, W.D.

1993-01-01

Traditionally, mineral resource assessments have been used to estimate the physical inventory of critical and strategic mineral commodities that occur in pieces of land and to assess the consequences of supply disruptions of these commodities. More recently, these assessments have been used to estimate the undiscovered mineral wealth in such pieces of land to assess the opportunity cost of using the land for purposes other than mineral production. The field of mineral resource assessment is an interdisciplinary field that draws elements from the disciplines of geology, economic geology (descriptive models), statistics and management science (grade and tonnage models), mineral economics, and operations research (computer simulation models). The purpose of this study is to assert that an occurrenceprobability metric exists that is useful in "filling out" an assessment both for areas in which only a trivial probability exists that a new mining district could be present and for areas where nontrivial probabilities exist for such districts. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

Public health consequences of macrolide use in food animals: a deterministic risk assessment.

PubMed

Hurd, H Scott; Doores, Stephanie; Hayes, Dermot; Mathew, Alan; Maurer, John; Silley, Peter; Singer, Randall S; Jones, Ronald N

2004-05-01

The potential impact on human health from antibiotic-resistant bacteria selected by use of antibiotics in food animals has resulted in many reports and recommended actions. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Center for Veterinary Medicine has issued Guidance Document 152, which advises veterinary drug sponsors of one potential process for conducting a qualitative risk assessment of drug use in food animals. Using this guideline, we developed a deterministic model to assess the risk from two macrolide antibiotics, tylosin and tilmicosin. The scope of modeling included all label claim uses of both macrolides in poultry, swine, and beef cattle. The Guidance Document was followed to define the hazard, which is illness (i) caused by foodborne bacteria with a resistance determinant, (ii) attributed to a specified animal-derived meat commodity, and (iii) treated with a human use drug of the same class. Risk was defined as the probability of this hazard combined with the consequence of treatment failure due to resistant Campylobacter spp. or Enterococcus faecium. A binomial event model was applied to estimate the annual risk for the U.S. general population. Parameters were derived from industry drug use surveys, scientific literature, medical guidelines, and government documents. This unique farm-to-patient risk assessment demonstrated that use of tylosin and tilmicosin in food animals presents a very low risk of human treatment failure, with an approximate annual probability of less than 1 in 10 million Campylobacter-derived and approximately 1 in 3 billion E. faecium-derived risk.

Healthy Eating--A Human Development Intervention Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

D'Augelli, Anthony R.

1981-01-01

Describes limitations of the psychological view that has dominated obesity research. The "brand" of psychology represented is assessed on its conceptual strengths, its implications for intervention program development, and its consequences for the delivery of services to people in communities. Suggests use of a human development model.…

The Importance of Considering the Temporal Distribution of Climate Variables for Ecological-Economic Modeling to Calculate the Consequences of Climate Change for Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plegnière, Sabrina; Casper, Markus; Hecker, Benjamin; Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg

2014-05-01

The basis of many models to calculate and assess climate change and its consequences are annual means of temperature and precipitation. This method leads to many uncertainties especially at the regional or local level: the results are not realistic or too coarse. Particularly in agriculture, single events and the distribution of precipitation and temperature during the growing season have enormous influences on plant growth. Therefore, the temporal distribution of climate variables should not be ignored. To reach this goal, a high-resolution ecological-economic model was developed which combines a complex plant growth model (STICS) and an economic model. In this context, input data of the plant growth model are daily climate values for a specific climate station calculated by the statistical climate model (WETTREG). The economic model is deduced from the results of the plant growth model STICS. The chosen plant is corn because corn is often cultivated and used in many different ways. First of all, a sensitivity analysis showed that the plant growth model STICS is suitable to calculate the influences of different cultivation methods and climate on plant growth or yield as well as on soil fertility, e.g. by nitrate leaching, in a realistic way. Additional simulations helped to assess a production function that is the key element of the economic model. Thereby the problems when using mean values of temperature and precipitation in order to compute a production function by linear regression are pointed out. Several examples show why a linear regression to assess a production function based on mean climate values or smoothed natural distribution leads to imperfect results and why it is not possible to deduce a unique climate factor in the production function. One solution for this problem is the additional consideration of stress indices that show the impairment of plants by water or nitrate shortage. Thus, the resulting model takes into account not only the ecological factors (e.g. the plant growth) or the economical factors as a simple monetary calculation, but also their mutual influences. Finally, the ecological-economic model enables us to make a risk assessment or evaluate adaptation strategies.

Hemodynamic consequences of LPA stenosis in single ventricle stage 2 LPN circulation with automatic registration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiavazzi, Daniele E.; Kung, Ethan O.; Dorfman, Adam L.; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Baretta, Alessia; Arbia, Gregory; Marsden, Alison L.

2013-11-01

Congenital heart diseases such as hypoplastic left heart syndrome annually affect about 3% of births in the US alone. Surgical palliation of single ventricle patients is performed in stages. Consequently to the stage 2 surgical procedure or other previous conditions, a stenosis of the left pulmonary artery (LPA) is often observed, raising the clinical question of whether or not it should be treated. The severity of stenoses are commonly assessed through geometric inspection or catheter in-vivo pressure measurements with limited quantitative information about patient-specific physiology. The present study uses a multiscale CFD approach to provide an assessment of the severity of LPA stenoses. A lumped parameter 0D model is used to simulate stage 2 circulation, and parameters are automatically identified accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data available for a cohort of patients. The importance of the latter parameters, whether alone or in groups, is also ranked using forward uncertainty propagation methods. Various stenosis levels are applied to the three-dimensional SVC-PA junction model using a dual mesh-morphing approach. Traditional assessments methodologies are compared to the results of our findings and critically discussed.

Mineral resource models and the Alaskan Mineral Resource Assessment Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Donald A.; Vogely, W. A.

1975-01-01

The least exacting demand that can be made of any model is that it serves as a device whereby we can predict actual physical happenings. Another demand which could be made is that the physical happenings predicted be in some way relevant to man, either by allowing him to anticipate future uncontrollable events or by demonstrating the possible consequences of various decisions. To date, many mineral resource models have been deficient in meeting these demands.

Hall Thruster Thermal Modeling and Test Data Correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, James; Kamhawi, Hani; Yim, John; Clayman, Lauren

2016-01-01

The life of Hall Effect thrusters are primarily limited by plasma erosion and thermal related failures. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have recently completed development of a Hall thruster with specific emphasis to mitigate these limitations. Extending the operational life of Hall thursters makes them more suitable for some of NASA's longer duration interplanetary missions. This paper documents the thermal model development, refinement and correlation of results with thruster test data. Correlation was achieved by minimizing uncertainties in model input and recognizing the relevant parameters for effective model tuning. Throughout the thruster design phase the model was used to evaluate design options and systematically reduce component temperatures. Hall thrusters are inherently complex assemblies of high temperature components relying on internal conduction and external radiation for heat dispersion and rejection. System solutions are necessary in most cases to fully assess the benefits and/or consequences of any potential design change. Thermal model correlation is critical since thruster operational parameters can push some components/materials beyond their temperature limits. This thruster incorporates a state-of-the-art magnetic shielding system to reduce plasma erosion and to a lesser extend power/heat deposition. Additionally a comprehensive thermal design strategy was employed to reduce temperatures of critical thruster components (primarily the magnet coils and the discharge channel). Long term wear testing is currently underway to assess the effectiveness of these systems and consequently thruster longevity.

Promotion orientation explains why future-oriented people exercise and eat healthy: evidence from the two-factor consideration of future consequences-14 scale.

PubMed

Joireman, Jeff; Shaffer, Monte J; Balliet, Daniel; Strathman, Alan

2012-10-01

The authors extended research linking individual differences in consideration of future consequences (CFC) with health behaviors by (a) testing whether individual differences in regulatory focus would mediate that link and (b) highlighting the value of a revised, two-factor CFC-14 scale with subscales assessing concern with future consequences (CFC-Future) and concern with immediate consequences (CFC-Immediate) proper. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses of the revised CFC-14 scale supported the presence of two highly reliable factors (CFC-Future and CFC-Immediate; αs from .80 to .84). Moreover, structural equation modeling showed that those high in CFC-Future engage in exercise and healthy eating because they adopt a promotion orientation. Future use of the two-factor CFC-14 scale is encouraged to shed additional light on how concern with future and concern with immediate consequences (proper) differentially impact the way people resolve a host of intertemporal dilemmas (e.g., health, financial, and environmental behavior).

MQAPRank: improved global protein model quality assessment by learning-to-rank.

PubMed

Jing, Xiaoyang; Dong, Qiwen

2017-05-25

Protein structure prediction has achieved a lot of progress during the last few decades and a greater number of models for a certain sequence can be predicted. Consequently, assessing the qualities of predicted protein models in perspective is one of the key components of successful protein structure prediction. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue, which could be roughly divided into three categories: single methods, quasi-single methods and clustering (or consensus) methods. Although these methods achieve much success at different levels, accurate protein model quality assessment is still an open problem. Here, we present the MQAPRank, a global protein model quality assessment program based on learning-to-rank. The MQAPRank first sorts the decoy models by using single method based on learning-to-rank algorithm to indicate their relative qualities for the target protein. And then it takes the first five models as references to predict the qualities of other models by using average GDT_TS scores between reference models and other models. Benchmarked on CASP11 and 3DRobot datasets, the MQAPRank achieved better performances than other leading protein model quality assessment methods. Recently, the MQAPRank participated in the CASP12 under the group name FDUBio and achieved the state-of-the-art performances. The MQAPRank provides a convenient and powerful tool for protein model quality assessment with the state-of-the-art performances, it is useful for protein structure prediction and model quality assessment usages.

A Population Consequence of Acoustic Disturbance Model for Cuviers beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris) in Southern California

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

two sources. The energetics model that will underpin both PCoD models for Md and Zc has also been published (New et al 2013). The full PCoD model...to Zc on SCORE. We will also be able to use the simplified PCoD model for beaked whales currently being developed under the ONR-funded project...34Using an interim PCoD protocol to assess the effects of disturbance associated with US Navy exercises on marine mammal populations”. This project will

A combined model to assess technical and economic consequences of changing conditions and management options for wastewater utilities.

PubMed

Giessler, Mathias; Tränckner, Jens

2018-02-01

The paper presents a simplified model that quantifies economic and technical consequences of changing conditions in wastewater systems on utility level. It has been developed based on data from stakeholders and ministries, collected by a survey that determined resulting effects and adapted measures. The model comprises all substantial cost relevant assets and activities of a typical German wastewater utility. It consists of three modules: i) Sewer for describing the state development of sewer systems, ii) WWTP for process parameter consideration of waste water treatment plants (WWTP) and iii) Cost Accounting for calculation of expenses in the cost categories and resulting charges. Validity and accuracy of this model was verified by using historical data from an exemplary wastewater utility. Calculated process as well as economic parameters shows a high accuracy compared to measured parameters and given expenses. Thus, the model is proposed to support strategic, process oriented decision making on utility level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New drug adoption models: a review and assessment of future needs.

PubMed

Agrawal, M; Calantone, R J

1995-01-01

New drug products today are the key to survival in the pharmaceutical industry. However, the new product development process in the pharmaceutical industry also happens to be one of the riskiest and most expensive undertakings because of the huge research and development costs involved. Consequently market forecasting of new pharmaceutical products takes on added importance if the formidable investments are to be recovered. New drug adoption models provide the marketer with a means to assess new product potential. Although several adoption models are available in the marketing literature for assessing potential of common consumer goods, the unique characteristics of the prescription drug market makes it necessary to examine the current state of pharmaceutical innovations. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to: (1) review new drug adoption models in the pharmaceutical literature, (2) evaluate the existing models of new drug adoption using the ten criteria for a good model as prescribed by Zaltman and Wallendorf (1983), and (3) provide an overall assessment and a ¿prescription¿ for better forecasting of new drug products.

"The Day After": The Organizational Consequences of Innovation Implementation in Experimental Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilad-Hai, Smadar; Somech, Anit

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of implementing innovation in experimental schools (focussing on R & D) for school effectiveness post-intervention (five years). Based on theoretical models of social exchange and "conservation of resources" (Hobfoll, 1989), the authors focussed on assessing the…

INTEGRATING SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS TO IMPROVE WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT IN THE U.S.: TESTING A NEW ORGANIZING APPROACH FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Conducting an integrated analysis to evaluate the societal and ecological consequences of environmental management actions requires decisions about data collection, theory development, modeling and valuation. Approaching these decisions in coordinated fashion necessitates a syste...

Computational Modeling and Simulation of Developmental Toxicity: what can we learn from a virtual embryo? (RIVM, Brussels)

EPA Science Inventory

Developmental and Reproductive Toxicity (DART) testing is important for assessing the potential consequences of drug and chemical exposure on human health and well-being. Complexity of pregnancy and the reproductive cycle makes DART testing challenging and costly for traditional ...

Some consequences of using the Horsfall-Barratt scale for hypothesis testing

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Comparing treatment effects by hypothesis testing is a common practice in plant pathology. Nearest percent estimates (NPEs) of disease severity were compared to Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) scale data to explore whether there was an effect of assessment method on hypothesis testing. A simulation model ba...

Understanding the Process Model of Leadership: Follower Attribute Design and Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Antelo, Absael; Henderson, Richard L.; St. Clair, Norman

2010-01-01

Early leadership studies produced significant research findings that have helped differentiate between leader and follower personal attributes and their consequent behaviors (SEDL, 1992), but little attention was given to the follower's contribution to the leadership process. This study represents a continuation of research by Henderson, Antelo, &…

A SIMPLE MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE EFFECTS OF NITROGEN LOADS ON CHESAPEAKE BAY HYPOXIA

EPA Science Inventory

The causes and consequences of oxygen depletion in Chesapeake Bay have been the focus of research, assessment, and policy action over the past several decades. An ongoing scientific re-evaluation of what nutrients load reductions are necessary to meet the water quality goals is ...

An integrated model-based approach to the risk assessment of pesticide drift from vineyards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pivato, Alberto; Barausse, Alberto; Zecchinato, Francesco; Palmeri, Luca; Raga, Roberto; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina; Cossu, Raffaello

2015-06-01

The inhalation of pesticide in air is of particular concern for people living in close contact with intensive agricultural activities. This study aims to develop an integrated modelling methodology to assess whether pesticides pose a risk to the health of people living near vineyards, and apply this methodology in the world-renowned Prosecco DOCG (Italian label for protection of origin and geographical indication of wines) region. A sample field in Bigolino di Valdobbiadene (North-Eastern Italy) was selected to perform the pesticide fate modellization and the consequent inhalation risk assessment for people living in the area. The modellization accounts for the direct pesticide loss during the treatment of vineyards and for the volatilization from soil after the end of the treatment. A fugacity model was used to assess the volatilization flux from soil. The Gaussian puff air dispersion model CALPUFF was employed to assess the airborne concentration of the emitted pesticide over the simulation domain. The subsequent risk assessment integrates the HArmonised environmental Indicators for pesticide Risk (HAIR) and US-EPA guidelines. In this case study the modelled situation turned to be safe from the point of view of human health in the case of non-carcinogenic compounds, and additional improvements were suggested to further mitigate the effect of the most critical compound.

Mexico’s Drug War and Its Unintended Regional Consequences

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

multiple approaches are designed to solve the problem.9 Analysis of the current strategic environment, relying on the environmental assessment model...current environmental assessment, this paper will provide a brief description of a more desired environment and also a problem statement that depicts...the 1980s the U.S. focused its counter drug efforts in Peru and Bolivia, then the world’s leaders in coca leaf supply. In the meantime, Colombian

The Grand Challenges of Command and Control Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

Memetic Warfare Memes are ideas that can be modeled and simulated. In a modern journalistic environment, dynamic information feedback from the theater...output type such that both adversarial meme processes and our counter anti- memetic activity could be modeled, simulated, and assessed. I am now...opposing force of the consequence of using biological or chemical weapons on the invading American forces. Do we have the proper memetic dynamics

Ontology for assessment studies of human-computer-interaction in surgery.

PubMed

Machno, Andrej; Jannin, Pierre; Dameron, Olivier; Korb, Werner; Scheuermann, Gerik; Meixensberger, Jürgen

2015-02-01

New technologies improve modern medicine, but may result in unwanted consequences. Some occur due to inadequate human-computer-interactions (HCI). To assess these consequences, an investigation model was developed to facilitate the planning, implementation and documentation of studies for HCI in surgery. The investigation model was formalized in Unified Modeling Language and implemented as an ontology. Four different top-level ontologies were compared: Object-Centered High-level Reference, Basic Formal Ontology, General Formal Ontology (GFO) and Descriptive Ontology for Linguistic and Cognitive Engineering, according to the three major requirements of the investigation model: the domain-specific view, the experimental scenario and the representation of fundamental relations. Furthermore, this article emphasizes the distinction of "information model" and "model of meaning" and shows the advantages of implementing the model in an ontology rather than in a database. The results of the comparison show that GFO fits the defined requirements adequately: the domain-specific view and the fundamental relations can be implemented directly, only the representation of the experimental scenario requires minor extensions. The other candidates require wide-ranging extensions, concerning at least one of the major implementation requirements. Therefore, the GFO was selected to realize an appropriate implementation of the developed investigation model. The ensuing development considered the concrete implementation of further model aspects and entities: sub-domains, space and time, processes, properties, relations and functions. The investigation model and its ontological implementation provide a modular guideline for study planning, implementation and documentation within the area of HCI research in surgery. This guideline helps to navigate through the whole study process in the form of a kind of standard or good clinical practice, based on the involved foundational frameworks. Furthermore, it allows to acquire the structured description of the applied assessment methods within a certain surgical domain and to consider this information for own study design or to perform a comparison of different studies. The investigation model and the corresponding ontology can be used further to create new knowledge bases of HCI assessment in surgery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence Theory Based Uncertainty Quantification in Radiological Risk due to Accidental Release of Radioactivity from a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingale, S. V.; Datta, D.

2010-10-01

Consequence of the accidental release of radioactivity from a nuclear power plant is assessed in terms of exposure or dose to the members of the public. Assessment of risk is routed through this dose computation. Dose computation basically depends on the basic dose assessment model and exposure pathways. One of the exposure pathways is the ingestion of contaminated food. The aim of the present paper is to compute the uncertainty associated with the risk to the members of the public due to the ingestion of contaminated food. The governing parameters of the ingestion dose assessment model being imprecise, we have approached evidence theory to compute the bound of the risk. The uncertainty is addressed by the belief and plausibility fuzzy measures.

Gender Matters: The Relationship between Social Anxiety and Alcohol-Related Consequences

PubMed Central

Schry, Amie R.; Norberg, Melissa M.; Maddox, Brenna B.; White, Susan W.

2014-01-01

Background and Objectives Identification of risk factors for alcohol-related consequences is an important public health concern. Both gender and social anxiety have been associated with alcohol-related consequences broadly, but it is unknown whether these variables are differentially related to specific types of alcohol-related consequences for American college students. Methods In the present study, 573 undergraduate students (M age = 19.86 years, SD = 1.40; range 18 to 25; 68.9% female) completed an on-line assessment of social anxiety, alcohol use, and four types of alcohol-related consequences (personal, social, physical, and role). Poisson regressions were run to examine social anxiety, gender, and the interaction between social anxiety and gender as predictors of each type of alcohol-related consequences. Results After controlling for alcohol use, social anxiety was positively associated with all four types of consequences, and females endorsed higher rates of physical, personal, and role consequences. The interaction between social anxiety and gender was statistically significant only for physical consequences, with social anxiety having a stronger effect for males. Discussion and Conclusions These findings, which diverge somewhat from those of a prior study with Australian college students, are discussed in the context of a biopsychosocial model of social anxiety and substance use problems. Scientific Significance This study highlights the importance of further investigating cultural differences in the relationships among social anxiety, gender, and alcohol-related consequences. PMID:25541722

Associations of patient safety outcomes with models of nursing care organization at unit level in hospitals.

PubMed

Dubois, Carl-Ardy; D'amour, Danielle; Tchouaket, Eric; Clarke, Sean; Rivard, Michèle; Blais, Régis

2013-04-01

To examine the associations of four distinct nursing care organizational models with patient safety outcomes. Cross-sectional correlational study. Using a standardized protocol, patients' records were screened retrospectively to detect occurrences of patient safety-related events. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the associations of those events with four nursing care organizational models. Twenty-two medical units in 11 hospitals in Quebec, Canada, were clustered into 4 nursing care organizational models: 2 professional models and 2 functional models. Two thousand six hundred and ninety-nine were patients hospitalized for at least 48 h on the selected units. Composite of six safety-related events widely-considered sensitive to nursing care: medication administration errors, falls, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, unjustified restraints and pressure ulcers. Events were ultimately sorted into two categories: events 'without major' consequences for patients and events 'with' consequences. After controlling for patient characteristics, patient risk of experiencing one or more events (of any severity) and of experiencing an event with consequences was significantly lower, by factors of 25-52%, in both professional models than in the functional models. Event rates for both functional models were statistically indistinguishable from each other. Data suggest that nursing care organizational models characterized by contrasting staffing, work environment and innovation characteristics may be associated with differential risk for hospitalized patients. The two professional models, which draw mainly on registered nurses (RNs) to deliver nursing services and reflect stronger support for nurses' professional practice, were associated with lower risks than are the two functional models.

A sequence-dependent rigid-base model of DNA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, O.; Petkevičiutė, D.; Maddocks, J. H.

2013-02-01

A novel hierarchy of coarse-grain, sequence-dependent, rigid-base models of B-form DNA in solution is introduced. The hierarchy depends on both the assumed range of energetic couplings, and the extent of sequence dependence of the model parameters. A significant feature of the models is that they exhibit the phenomenon of frustration: each base cannot simultaneously minimize the energy of all of its interactions. As a consequence, an arbitrary DNA oligomer has an intrinsic or pre-existing stress, with the level of this frustration dependent on the particular sequence of the oligomer. Attention is focussed on the particular model in the hierarchy that has nearest-neighbor interactions and dimer sequence dependence of the model parameters. For a Gaussian version of this model, a complete coarse-grain parameter set is estimated. The parameterized model allows, for an oligomer of arbitrary length and sequence, a simple and explicit construction of an approximation to the configuration-space equilibrium probability density function for the oligomer in solution. The training set leading to the coarse-grain parameter set is itself extracted from a recent and extensive database of a large number of independent, atomic-resolution molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of short DNA oligomers immersed in explicit solvent. The Kullback-Leibler divergence between probability density functions is used to make several quantitative assessments of our nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model, which is compared against others in the hierarchy to assess various assumptions pertaining both to the locality of the energetic couplings and to the level of sequence dependence of its parameters. It is also compared directly against all-atom MD simulation to assess its predictive capabilities. The results show that the nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model can successfully resolve sequence effects both within and between oligomers. For example, due to the presence of frustration, the model can successfully predict the nonlocal changes in the minimum energy configuration of an oligomer that are consequent upon a local change of sequence at the level of a single point mutation.

A sequence-dependent rigid-base model of DNA.

PubMed

Gonzalez, O; Petkevičiūtė, D; Maddocks, J H

2013-02-07

A novel hierarchy of coarse-grain, sequence-dependent, rigid-base models of B-form DNA in solution is introduced. The hierarchy depends on both the assumed range of energetic couplings, and the extent of sequence dependence of the model parameters. A significant feature of the models is that they exhibit the phenomenon of frustration: each base cannot simultaneously minimize the energy of all of its interactions. As a consequence, an arbitrary DNA oligomer has an intrinsic or pre-existing stress, with the level of this frustration dependent on the particular sequence of the oligomer. Attention is focussed on the particular model in the hierarchy that has nearest-neighbor interactions and dimer sequence dependence of the model parameters. For a Gaussian version of this model, a complete coarse-grain parameter set is estimated. The parameterized model allows, for an oligomer of arbitrary length and sequence, a simple and explicit construction of an approximation to the configuration-space equilibrium probability density function for the oligomer in solution. The training set leading to the coarse-grain parameter set is itself extracted from a recent and extensive database of a large number of independent, atomic-resolution molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of short DNA oligomers immersed in explicit solvent. The Kullback-Leibler divergence between probability density functions is used to make several quantitative assessments of our nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model, which is compared against others in the hierarchy to assess various assumptions pertaining both to the locality of the energetic couplings and to the level of sequence dependence of its parameters. It is also compared directly against all-atom MD simulation to assess its predictive capabilities. The results show that the nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model can successfully resolve sequence effects both within and between oligomers. For example, due to the presence of frustration, the model can successfully predict the nonlocal changes in the minimum energy configuration of an oligomer that are consequent upon a local change of sequence at the level of a single point mutation.

CONSTELL: NASA's Satellite Constellation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Theall, Jeffrey R.; Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; McKay, Gordon A. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

The CONSTELL program represents an initial effort by the orbital debris modeling group at NASA/JSC to address the particular issues and problems raised by the presence of LEO satellite constellations. It was designed to help NASA better understand the potential orbital debris consequences of having satellite constellations operating in the future in LEO. However, it could also be used by constellation planners to evaluate architecture or design alternatives that might lessen debris consequences for their constellation or lessen the debris effects on other users of space. CONSTELL is designed to perform debris environment projections rapidly so it can support parametric assessments involving either the constellations themselves or the background environment which represents non-constellation users of the space. The projections need to be calculated quickly because a number of projections are often required to adequately span the parameter space of interest. To this end CONSTELL uses the outputs of other NASA debris environment models as inputs, thus doing away with the need for time consuming upfront calculations. Specifically, CONSTELL uses EVOLVE or ORDEM96 debris spatial density results as its background environment, debris cloud snapshot templates to simulate debris cloud propagation, and time dependent orbit profiles of the intact non- functional constellation spacecraft and upper stages. In this paper the environmental consequences of the deployment of particular LEO satellite constellations using the CONSTELL model will be evaluated. Constellations that will undergo a parametric assessment will reflect realistic parameter values. Among other results the increase in loss rate of non-constellation spacecraft, the number of collisions involving constellation elements, and the replacement rate of constellation satellites as a result of debris impact will be presented.

Traumatic physical health consequences of intimate partner violence against women: what is the role of community-level factors?

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women is a serious public health issue with recognizable direct health consequences. This study assessed the association between IPV and traumatic physical health consequences on women in Nigeria, given that communities exert significant influence on the individuals that are embedded within them, with the nature of influence varying between communities. Methods Cross-sectional nationally-representative data of women aged 15 - 49 years in the 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey was used in this study. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between IPV and several forms of physical health consequences. Results Bruises were the most common form of traumatic physical health consequences. In the adjusted models, the likelihood of sustaining bruises (OR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.05 - 3.46), wounds (OR = 2.54, 95% CI = 1.31 - 4.95), and severe burns (OR = 3.20, 95% CI = 1.63 - 6.28) was significantly higher for women exposed to IPV compared to those not exposed to IPV. However, after adjusting for individual- and community-level factors, women with husbands/partners with controlling behavior, those with primary or no education, and those resident in communities with high tolerance for wife beating had a higher likelihood of experiencing IPV, whilst mean community-level education and women 24 years or younger were at lower likelihood of experiencing IPV. Conclusions Evidence from this study shows that exposure to IPV is associated with increased likelihood of traumatic physical consequences for women in Nigeria. Education and justification of wife beating were significant community-level factors associated with traumatic physical consequences, suggesting the importance of increasing women's levels of education and changing community norms that justify controlling behavior and IPV. PMID:22185323

Integrated modelling for the evaluation of infiltration effects.

PubMed

Schulz, N; Baur, R; Krebs, P

2005-01-01

The objective of the present study is the estimation of the potential benefits of sewer pipe rehabilitation for the performance of the drainage system and the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) as well as for the receiving water quality. The relation of sewer system status and the infiltration rate is assessed based on statistical analysis of 470 km of CCTV (Closed Circuit Television) inspected sewers of the city of Dresden. The potential reduction of infiltration rates and the consequent performance improvements of the urban wastewater system are simulated as a function of rehabilitation activities in the network. The integrated model is applied to an artificial system with input from a real sewer network. In this paper, the general design of the integrated model and its data requirements are presented. For an exemplary study, the consequences of the simulations are discussed with respect to the prioritisation of rehabilitation activities in the network.

Critical asset and portfolio risk analysis: an all-hazards framework.

PubMed

Ayyub, Bilal M; McGill, William L; Kaminskiy, Mark

2007-08-01

This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.

Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.

2012-01-01

Management decisions will often be directly informed by model predictions. However, we now know there can be no expectation of a single ‘true’ model; thus, model results are uncertain. Understandable reporting of underlying uncertainty provides necessary context to decision-makers, as model results are used for management decisions. This, in turn, forms a mechanism by which groundwater models inform a risk-management framework because uncertainty around a prediction provides the basis for estimating the probability or likelihood of some event occurring. Given that the consequences of management decisions vary, it follows that the extent of and resources devoted to an uncertainty analysis may depend on the consequences. For events with low impact, a qualitative, limited uncertainty analysis may be sufficient for informing a decision. For events with a high impact, on the other hand, the risks might be better assessed and associated decisions made using a more robust and comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The purpose of this chapter is to provide guidance on uncertainty analysis through discussion of concepts and approaches, which can vary from heuristic (i.e. the modeller’s assessment of prediction uncertainty based on trial and error and experience) to a comprehensive, sophisticated, statistics-based uncertainty analysis. Most of the material presented here is taken from Doherty et al. (2010) if not otherwise cited. Although the treatment here is necessarily brief, the reader can find citations for the source material and additional references within this chapter.

Why is impaired sexual function distressing to women? The primacy of pleasure in female sexual dysfunction.

PubMed

Stephenson, Kyle R; Meston, Cindy M

2015-03-01

Recent research has highlighted a complex association between female sexual function and subjective distress regarding sexual activity. These findings are difficult to explain given limited knowledge as to the mechanisms through which impaired sexual function causes distress. The current study assessed whether a number of specific consequences of impaired sexual function, including decreased physical pleasure, disruption of sexual activity, and negative partner responses, mediated the association between sexual function and distress. Eighty-seven women in sexually active relationships reporting impairments in sexual function completed validated self-report measures and daily online assessments of sexual experiences. Participants completed the Sexual Satisfaction Scale for Women, the Female Sexual Function Index, and the Measure of Sexual Consequences. Results suggested that decreased physical pleasure and disruption of sexual activity, but not partner responses, statistically mediated the association between sexual function and distress. Sexual consequences represent potential maintaining factors of sexual dysfunction that are highly distressing to women. Results are discussed in the context of theoretical models of sexual dysfunction and related treatments. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Why is impaired sexual function distressing to women? The primacy of pleasure in female sexual dysfunction

PubMed Central

Stephenson, Kyle R.; Meston, Cindy M.

2015-01-01

Introduction Recent research has highlighted a complex association between female sexual function and subjective distress regarding sexual activity. These findings are difficult to explain given limited knowledge as to the mechanisms through which impaired sexual function causes distress. Aim The current study assessed whether a number of specific consequences of impaired sexual function, including decreased physical pleasure, disruption of sexual activity, and negative partner responses, mediated the association between sexual function and distress. Methods Eighty seven women in sexually active relationships reporting impairments in sexual function completed validated self-report measures and daily online assessments of sexual experiences. Main Outcome Measures Participants completed the Sexual Satisfaction Scale for Women (SSS-W), the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI), and the Measure of Sexual Consequences (MSC). Results Results suggested that decreased physical pleasure and disruption of sexual activity, but not partner responses, statistically mediated the association between sexual function and distress. Conclusion Sexual consequences represent potential maintaining factors of sexual dysfunction that are highly distressing to women. Results are discussed in the context of theoretical models of sexual dysfunction and related treatments. PMID:25556719

Reinforcer pathologies: Predicting alcohol related problems in college drinking men and women.

PubMed

Lemley, Shea M; Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D; Darden, Alexandria C; Jarmolowicz, David P

2016-10-01

Alcohol use in college is common, and problematic consequences of alcohol may affect college men and women differently. Approaches within behavioral economics have been used to improve our understanding of alcohol use in college students. The current study assessed relations between college students' delay discounting, demand for alcohol, and alcohol problems as measured by the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire (YAACQ). In this study, 80 college drinkers completed a monetary choice questionnaire that assessed delay discounting of money, a novel beer choice questionnaire that evaluated delay discounting of beer, and an alcohol purchase task that measured demand for alcohol. Behavioral economic measures associated with the reinforcer pathologies model (i.e., demand and discounting) predicted alcohol consequences as measured by the YAACQ. For men, these significant predictor variables included money discounting, beer discounting, and intensity of alcohol demand, whereas for women money discounting and essential value were significant predictors. These findings highlight the utility of the reinforcer pathologies approach for the study of alcohol use and the importance of considering gender differences in examining college drinking. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

The potential of smoking cessation programmes and a smoking ban in public places: comparing gain in life expectancy and cost effectiveness.

PubMed

Højgaard, Betina; Olsen, Kim Rose; Pisinger, Charlotta; Tønnesen, Hanne; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte

2011-12-01

Interventions aimed at reducing the number of smokers are generally believed to be cost effective. However as the cost of the interventions should be paid up front whereas the gains in life years only appear in the future--the budgetary consequences might be a barrier to implementing such interventions. The aim of the present paper was to assess the long-term cost effectiveness as well as the short-term (10 years) budget consequences of cessation programmes and a smoking ban in enclosed public places. We develop a population-based Markov model capable of analyzing both interventions and assess long-term costs effectiveness as well as short-term budgetary consequences and outcome gains. The smoking cessation programme model was based on data from the Danish National Smoking Cessation Database (SCDB), while the model of the smoking ban was based on effect estimates found in the literature. On a population level the effect of a smoking ban has the largest potential compared with the effect of smoking cessation programmes. Our results suggest that smoking cessation programmes are cost saving and generate life-years, whereas the costs per life-year gained by a smoking ban are 40,645 to 64,462 DKK (100 DKK = €13.4). These results are conservative as they do not include the healthcare cost saving related to reduced passive smoking. Our results indicate that smoking cessation programmes and a smoking ban in enclosed public places both in the short term and the long term are cost-effective strategies compared with the status quo.

British Military Mission (BMM) to Greece, 1942-44

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-21

Terrorism. Failure to take into account and accurately assess political and military actions in such environments can lead to unintended consequences ...such environments can lead to unintended consequences (potential civil war) affecting the stability of a country. Accurate assessment of the political...take into account and accurately assess political and military actions in such environments can lead to unintended consequences (potential civil war

Economic modeling of fault tolerant flight control systems in commercial applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finelli, G. B.

1982-01-01

This paper describes the current development of a comprehensive model which will supply the assessment and analysis capability to investigate the economic viability of Fault Tolerant Flight Control Systems (FTFCS) for commercial aircraft of the 1990's and beyond. An introduction to the unique attributes of fault tolerance and how they will influence aircraft operations and consequent airline costs and benefits is presented. Specific modeling issues and elements necessary for accurate assessment of all costs affected by ownership and operation of FTFCS are delineated. Trade-off factors are presented, aimed at exposing economically optimal realizations of system implementations, resource allocation, and operating policies. A trade-off example is furnished to graphically display some of the analysis capabilities of the comprehensive simulation model now being developed.

Recent developments in imaging system assessment methodology, FROC analysis and the search model.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Dev P

2011-08-21

A frequent problem in imaging is assessing whether a new imaging system is an improvement over an existing standard. Observer performance methods, in particular the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) paradigm, are widely used in this context. In ROC analysis lesion location information is not used and consequently scoring ambiguities can arise in tasks, such as nodule detection, involving finding localized lesions. This paper reviews progress in the free-response ROC (FROC) paradigm in which the observer marks and rates suspicious regions and the location information is used to determine whether lesions were correctly localized. Reviewed are FROC data analysis, a search-model for simulating FROC data, predictions of the model and a method for estimating the parameters. The search model parameters are physically meaningful quantities that can guide system optimization.

Distributed Leadership and Teacher Job Satisfaction in Singapore

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

García Torres, Darlene

2018-01-01

Purpose: Singapore is a country with low teacher attrition rates and high performance on international assessments (TIMSS 2011/2015 and PISA 2012/2015). Consequently, its education system is often considered as a model for other nations. The purpose of this paper is to extend research on teacher job satisfaction in Singapore and provide…

Predicting fecundity of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) exposed toeEndocrine-disrupting chemicals using a MATLAB®-based model of oocyte growth dynamics

EPA Science Inventory

Fish spawning is often used as an integrated measure of reproductive toxicity, and an indicator of aquatic ecosystem health in the context of forecasting potential population-level effects considered important for ecological risk assessment. Consequently, there is a need for fle...

Development and Validation of the Information Literacy Assessment Scale for Education (ILAS-ED)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beile, Penny

2005-01-01

No population exists where it is more important to produce information literate individuals than teacher candidates, yet few would suggest that practitioners newly entering the field are adequately prepared to model and teach information literacy to their students. Consequently, information literacy has recently been established as a key outcome…

Social Skills Assessment and Training for the Learning Disabled: Who's on First and What's on Second? Part II.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schumaker, Jean B.; Hazel, J. Stephen

1984-01-01

The authors review research on techniques to change social behavior, ranging from relatively simple manipulations of antecedent and consequent conditions to complex instructional "packages" involving didactic, modeling, rehearsal, and feedback procedures and examine issues involved in generalization of social skills training as well as ethical…

Assessing Antecedents and Consequences of Student Satisfaction in Higher Education: Evidence from Malaysia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lai, M. M.; Lau, S. H.; Yusof, N. A. Mohamad; Chew, K. W.

2015-01-01

This paper explores the interrelationships of the key influences on student satisfaction via multivariate analysis from three groups of university students in two popular private universities in Malaysia. The correlation coefficient and structural model indicated that student satisfaction is influenced not only by academic quality, but also by the…

Patterns and Consequences of in ovo Exposure to Methylmercury in Common Loons, poster presentation

EPA Science Inventory

A critical component of a common loon/mercury (Hg) risk assessment model under development is the determination of the concentration of Hg in eggs that poses a population level risk. We conducted a field study to (1) characterize in ovo methylmercury (MeHg) exposure in Wisconsin...

Simulating the Effects of Alternative Forest Management Strategies on Landscape Structure

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Thomas Crow

1996-01-01

Quantitative, spatial tools are needed to assess the long-term spatial consequences of alternative management strategies for land use planning and resource management. We constructed a timber harvest allocation model (HARVEST) that provides a visual and quantitative means to predict the spatial pattern of forest openings produced by alternative harvest strategies....

Assessment of an explosive LPG release accident: a case study.

PubMed

Bubbico, Roberto; Marchini, Mauro

2008-07-15

In the present paper, an accident occurred during a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tank filling activity has been taken into consideration. During the transfer of LPG from the source road tank car to the receiving fixed storage vessel, an accidental release of LPG gave rise to different final consequences ranging from a pool fire, to a fireball and to the catastrophic rupture of the tank with successive explosion of its contents. The sequence of events has been investigated by using some of the consequence calculation models most commonly adopted in risk analysis and accident investigation. On one hand, this allows to better understand the link between the various events of the accident. On the other hand, a comparison between the results of the calculations and the damages actually observed after the accident, allows to check the accuracy of the prediction models and to critically assess their validity. In particular, it was shown that the largest uncertainty is associated with the calculation of the energy involved in the physical expansion of the fluid (both liquid and vapor) after the catastrophic rupture of the tank.

IPECAD5--Fifth International Pharmaco-Economic Conference on Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Gustavsson, A; Jonsson, L; Fillit, H; Johansson, G; Wimo, A; Winblad, B

2010-05-01

The Fifth International Pharmaco-Economic Conference on Alzheimer's Disease was held in New York, on March 27-29 in 2008. The attendees included researchers and key opinion leaders within the academia, pharmaceutical industry, patient organizations and regulatory bodies, collecting the worldwide leading expertise in Alzheimer research today. A summary of the presentations and conclusions from the discussions are presented in this publication. Pharmaco-economics need to play a leading role in developing and communicating evidence of the value of anti-dementia drugs, now and in the future. For the development of evidence, the challenges include transparency and standardization of costs of care assessment, improved diagnostics for identifying target patient groups, improved endpoints for assessing outcomes and improved models for assessing the long term consequences of competing treatment strategies. For the communication of evidence, the challenge lies in convincing decision makers to recognize the integrated burden of the disease, including its interaction with co-morbidities and burden on caregivers, and to consider the consequences of competing treatment strategies from a societal perspective.

Testing relationships from the hierarchical model of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation using flow as a motivational consequence.

PubMed

Kowal, J; Fortier, M S

2000-06-01

The purpose of this study was to test a motivational model based on Vallerand's (1997) Hierarchical Model of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation. This model incorporates situational and contextual motivational variables, and was tested using a time-lagged design. Master's level swimmers (N = 104) completed a questionnaire on two separate occasions. At Time 1, situational social factors (perceptions of success and perceptions of the motivational climate), situational motivational mediators (perceptions of autonomy, competence, and relatedness), situational motivation, and flow were assessed immediately following a swim practice. Contextual measures of these same variables were assessed at Time 2, 1 week later, with the exception of flow. Results of a path analysis supported numerous links in the hypothesized model. Findings are discussed in light of research and theory on motivation and flow.

Dynamical consequences of mantle heterogeneity in two-phase models of mid-ocean ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, R. F.

2010-12-01

The mid-ocean ridge system, over 50,000 km in length, samples the magmatic products of a large swath of the asthenosphere. It provides our best means to assess the heterogeneity structure of the upper mantle. Interpretation of the diverse array of observations of MOR petrology, geochemistry, tomography, etc requires models that can map heterogeneity structure onto predictions testable by comparison with these observations. I report on progress to this end; in particular, I describe numerical models of coupled magma/mantle dynamics at mid-ocean ridges [1,2]. These models incorporate heterogeneity in terms of a simple, two-component thermochemical system with specified amplitude and spatial distribution. They indicate that mantle heterogeneity has significant fluid-dynamical consequences for both mantle and magmatic flow. Models show that the distribution of enrichment can lead to asymmetry in the strength of upwelling across the ridge-axis and channelised magmatic transport to the axis. Furthermore, heterogeneity can cause off-axis upwelling of partially molten diapirs, trapping of enriched melts off-axis, and re-fertilization of the mantle by pooled and refrozen melts. Predicted consequences of geochemical heterogeneity may also be considered. References: [1] Katz, RF, (2008); Magma dynamics with the Enthalpy Method: Benchmark Solutions and Magmatic Focusing at Mid-ocean Ridges. Journal of Petrology, doi: 10.1093/petrology/egn058. [2] Katz RF, (2010); Porosity-driven convection and asymmetry beneath mid-ocean ridges. Submitted to G3.

Homeland Biological Warfare Consequence Management: Capabilities and Needs Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-04-01

AU/ACSC/105/2001-04 AIR COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE AIR UNIVERSITY HOMELAND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT: CAPABILITIES AND NEEDS...Dates Covered (from... to) - Title and Subtitle Homeland biological Warfare Consequence Management: Capabilities and Needs Assessment Contract...FEMA, DoJ, DoD, HHS, etc.) make a comprehensive, organized solution to the problem difficult. Focusing on the consequence management functions

Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama was chosen as study area, and further application of PyDEM was discussed.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertain assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R.; Goossens, L.H.J.

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the expert panel on late health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

1998-04-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

DOE PAGES

McCollum, David L.; Wilson, Charlie; Pettifor, Hazel; ...

2016-05-03

A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. Anmore » innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and behaviorally-realistic model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. Moreover, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.« less

A three-dimensional model to assess the effect of ankle joint axis misalignments in ankle-foot orthoses.

PubMed

Fatone, Stefania; Johnson, William Brett; Tucker, Kerice

2016-04-01

Misalignment of an articulated ankle-foot orthosis joint axis with the anatomic joint axis may lead to discomfort, alterations in gait, and tissue damage. Theoretical, two-dimensional models describe the consequences of misalignments, but cannot capture the three-dimensional behavior of ankle-foot orthosis use. The purpose of this project was to develop a model to describe the effects of ankle-foot orthosis ankle joint misalignment in three dimensions. Computational simulation. Three-dimensional scans of a leg and ankle-foot orthosis were incorporated into a link segment model where the ankle-foot orthosis joint axis could be misaligned with the anatomic ankle joint axis. The leg/ankle-foot orthosis interface was modeled as a network of nodes connected by springs to estimate interface pressure. Motion between the leg and ankle-foot orthosis was calculated as the ankle joint moved through a gait cycle. While the three-dimensional model corroborated predictions of the previously published two-dimensional model that misalignments in the anterior -posterior direction would result in greater relative motion compared to misalignments in the proximal -distal direction, it provided greater insight showing that misalignments have asymmetrical effects. The three-dimensional model has been incorporated into a freely available computer program to assist others in understanding the consequences of joint misalignments. Models and simulations can be used to gain insight into functioning of systems of interest. We have developed a three-dimensional model to assess the effect of ankle joint axis misalignments in ankle-foot orthoses. The model has been incorporated into a freely available computer program to assist understanding of trainees and others interested in orthotics. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2014.

How would I live with a disability? Expectations of bio-psychosocial consequences and assistive technology use.

PubMed

Parant, Aymeric; Schiano-Lomoriello, Sandrine; Marchan, Francis

2017-10-01

It is widely accepted that social dimensions are crucial when facing a disability. More specifically, a normative incentive to conceal one's disability, which can lead to abandonment of assistive technology devices (ATD), is often reported. This study seeks to examine this norm. The expected consequences of having a disability were measured using a sample of 549 able-bodied students from three groups. The results showed that the expected consequences of having a disability and therefore the descriptive norms associated with disability were less negative for the participants who were familiar with disability, but higher for sports students. Furthermore, the relation between objective and subjective consequences (having a disability and feeling disabled, respectively) and public and private use of ATD were modelled. The model shows that both higher objective and lower subjective consequences were linked to higher ATD use in public and, indirectly, in private. The present study contributes to the literature on the normative elements related to the use of ATD. Indeed, it shows that when a person makes his/her disability a part of him/herself, she/he is expected to hide it and therefore to avoid using ATD. However, this assessment proves to be context-dependent and calls for the implementation of handicap awareness programs. Implications for Rehabilitation If faced with a disability, expecting to feel disabled and expecting lower objective consequences are linked to lower ATD use. Expected ATD use in private seems to be related to ATD use in public but not to the expected consequences of the disability. Expectations and therefore social norms about having a disability are highly context-dependent which encourages the implementation of handicap awareness programs.

Auditory processing deficits are sometimes necessary and sometimes sufficient for language difficulties in children: Evidence from mild to moderate sensorineural hearing loss.

PubMed

Halliday, Lorna F; Tuomainen, Outi; Rosen, Stuart

2017-09-01

There is a general consensus that many children and adults with dyslexia and/or specific language impairment display deficits in auditory processing. However, how these deficits are related to developmental disorders of language is uncertain, and at least four categories of model have been proposed: single distal cause models, risk factor models, association models, and consequence models. This study used children with mild to moderate sensorineural hearing loss (MMHL) to investigate the link between auditory processing deficits and language disorders. We examined the auditory processing and language skills of 46, 8-16year-old children with MMHL and 44 age-matched typically developing controls. Auditory processing abilities were assessed using child-friendly psychophysical techniques in order to obtain discrimination thresholds. Stimuli incorporated three different timescales (µs, ms, s) and three different levels of complexity (simple nonspeech tones, complex nonspeech sounds, speech sounds), and tasks required discrimination of frequency or amplitude cues. Language abilities were assessed using a battery of standardised assessments of phonological processing, reading, vocabulary, and grammar. We found evidence that three different auditory processing abilities showed different relationships with language: Deficits in a general auditory processing component were necessary but not sufficient for language difficulties, and were consistent with a risk factor model; Deficits in slow-rate amplitude modulation (envelope) detection were sufficient but not necessary for language difficulties, and were consistent with either a single distal cause or a consequence model; And deficits in the discrimination of a single speech contrast (/bɑ/ vs /dɑ/) were neither necessary nor sufficient for language difficulties, and were consistent with an association model. Our findings suggest that different auditory processing deficits may constitute distinct and independent routes to the development of language difficulties in children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Consequence assessment of large rock slope failures in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppikofer, Thierry; Hermanns, Reginald L.; Horton, Pascal; Sandøy, Gro; Roberts, Nicholas J.; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Böhme, Martina; Yugsi Molina, Freddy X.

2014-05-01

Steep glacially carved valleys and fjords in Norway are prone to many landslide types, including large rockslides, rockfalls, and debris flows. Large rockslides and their secondary effects (rockslide-triggered displacement waves, inundation behind landslide dams and outburst floods from failure of landslide dams) pose a significant hazard to the population living in the valleys and along the fjords shoreline. The Geological Survey of Norway performs systematic mapping of unstable rock slopes in Norway and has detected more than 230 unstable slopes with significant postglacial deformation. This large number necessitates prioritisation of follow-up activities, such as more detailed investigations, periodic displacement measurements, continuous monitoring and early-warning systems. Prioritisation is achieved through a hazard and risk classification system, which has been developed by a panel of international and Norwegian experts (www.ngu.no/en-gb/hm/Publications/Reports/2012/2012-029). The risk classification system combines a qualitative hazard assessment with a consequences assessment focusing on potential life losses. The hazard assessment is based on a series of nine geomorphological, engineering geological and structural criteria, as well as displacement rates, past events and other signs of activity. We present a method for consequence assessment comprising four main steps: 1. computation of the volume of the unstable rock slope; 2. run-out assessment based on the volume-dependent angle of reach (Fahrböschung) or detailed numerical run-out modelling; 3. assessment of possible displacement wave propagation and run-up based on empirical relations or modelling in 2D or 3D; and 4. estimation of the number of persons exposed to rock avalanches or displacement waves. Volume computation of an unstable rock slope is based on the sloping local base level technique, which uses a digital elevation model to create a second-order curved surface between the mapped extent of the unstable rock slope. This surface represents the possible basal sliding surface of an unstable rock slope. The elevation difference between this surface and the topographic surface estimates the volume of the unstable rock slope. A tool has been developed for the present study to adapt the curvature parameters of the computed surface to local geological and structural conditions. The obtained volume is then used to define the angle of reach of a possible rock avalanche from the unstable rock slope by using empirical derived values of angle of reach vs. volume relations. Run-out area is calculated using FlowR; the software is widely used for run-out assessment of debris flows and is adapted here for assessment of rock avalanches, including their potential to ascend opposing slopes. Under certain conditions, more sophisticated and complex numerical run-out models are also used. For rock avalanches with potential to reach a fjord or a lake the propagation and run-up area of triggered displacement waves is assessed. Empirical relations of wave run-up height as a function of rock avalanche volume and distance from impact location are derived from a national and international inventory of landslide-triggered displacement waves. These empirical relations are used in first-level hazard assessment and where necessary, followed by 2D or 3D displacement wave modelling. Finally, the population exposed in the rock avalanche run-out area and in the run-up area of a possible displacement wave is assessed taking into account different population groups: inhabitants, persons in critical infrastructure (hospitals and other emergency services), persons in schools and kindergartens, persons at work or in shops, tourists, persons on ferries and so on. Exposure levels are defined for each population group and vulnerability values are set for the rock avalanche run-out area (100%) and the run-up area of a possible displacement wave (70%). Finally, the total number of persons within the hazard area is calculated taking into account exposure and vulnerability. The method for consequence assessment is currently tested through several case studies in Norway and, thereafter, applied to all unstable rock slopes in the country to assess their risk level. Follow-up activities (detailed investigations, periodic displacement measurements or continuous monitoring and early-warning systems) can then be prioritized based on the risk level and with a standard approach for whole Norway.

Mouse Models for Bone Research to Assess Military Stress Fracture Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-04-01

analyses. DEXA scanning by PIXImus: The PIXImus densitometer (GE-Lunar, Madison , WI) was used to assess whole body areal (a)BMD and body composition...between sexes in 18 of the 28 strains. Sex differences for whole body BMD (aBMD) and BcD of the lumbar spine are not congruent, consequently predicting...cannot be used to predict aBMD, either whole body or at the lumbar spine, or body cornposition compartments. It is important to note that in this

Speculations on the consequences to biology of space shuttle-associated increases in global UV-B radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Averner, M. M.; Macelroy, R. D.

1977-01-01

Various aspects of the impact of ozone depletion on the biosphere are assessed and discussed. Speculations on the factors which determine the extent and nature of biological damage due to an increased flux of ultra violet light are presented. It is concluded that a complete assessment must consider both direct effects (organisms) as well as indirect effects (ecosystems). The role of computer simulation of ecosystem models as a predictive tool is examined.

Seven basic dimensions of personality pathology and their clinical consequences: Are all personalities equally harmful?

PubMed

Vall, Gemma; Gutiérrez, Fernando; Peri, Josep M; Gárriz, Miguel; Ferraz, Liliana; Baillés, Eva; Obiols, Jordi E

2015-11-01

Dimensional pathology models are increasingly being accepted for the assessment of disordered personalities, but their ability to predict negative outcomes is yet to be studied. We examine the relative clinical impact of seven basic dimensions of personality pathology through their associations with a wide range of clinical outcomes. A sample of 960 outpatients was assessed through a 7-factor model integrating the Cloninger, the Livesley, and the DSM taxonomies. Thirty-six indicators of clinical outcome covering three areas - dissatisfaction, functional difficulties, and clinical severity - were also assessed. The unique contribution of each personality dimension to clinical outcome was estimated through multiple regressions. Overall, personality dimensions explained 17.6% of the variance of clinical outcome, but varied substantially in terms of their unique contributions. Negative Emotionality had the greatest impact in all areas, contributing 43.9% of the explained variance. The remaining dimensions led to idiosyncratic patterns of clinical outcomes but had a comparatively minor clinical impact. A certain effect was also found for combinations of dimensions such as Negative Emotionality × Impulsive Sensation Seeking, but most interactions were clinically irrelevant. Our findings suggest that the most relevant dimensions of personality pathology are associated with very different clinical consequences and levels of harmfulness. The relative clinical impact of seven basic dimensions of personality pathology is examined. Negative Emotionality (Neuroticism) is 6-14 times as harmful as other pathological dimensions. The remaining dimensions and their interactions have very specific and comparatively minor clinical consequences. We examine only a handful of clinical outcomes. Our results may not be generalizable to other clinical or life outcomes. Our variables are self-reported and hence susceptible to bias. Our design does not allow us to establish causal relationships between personality and clinical outcomes. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Developing perturbations for Climate Change Impact Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitson, Bruce

Following the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report [TAR; IPCC, 2001], and the paucity of climate change impact assessments from developing nations, there has been a significant growth in activities to redress this shortcoming. However, undertaking impact assessments (in relation to malaria, crop stress, regional water supply, etc.) is contingent on available climate-scale scenarios at time and space scales of relevance to the regional issues of importance. These scales are commonly far finer than even the native resolution of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) (the principal tools for climate change research), let alone the skillful resolution (scales of aggregation at which GCM observational error is acceptable for a given application) of GCMs.Consequently, there is a growing demand for regional-scale scenarios, which in turn are reliant on techniques to downscale from GCMs, such as empirical downscaling or nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs). These methods require significant skill, experiential knowledge, and computational infrastructure in order to derive credible regional-scale scenarios. In contrast, it is often the case that impact assessment researchers in developing nations have inadequate resources with limited access to scientists in the broader international scientific community who have the time and expertise to assist. However, where developing effective downscaled scenarios is problematic, it is possible that much useful information can still be obtained for impact assessments by examining the system sensitivity to largerscale climate perturbations. Consequently, one may argue that the early phase of assessing sensitivity and vulnerability should first be characterized by evaluation of the first-order impacts, rather than immediately addressing the finer, secondary factors that are dependant on scenarios derived through downscaling.

Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

2016-02-01

The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real-time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug positioning and implementation of dynamic risk-based vessel traffic monitoring.

Assessment of vulnerability zones for ground water pollution using GIS-DRASTIC-EC model: A field-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantha Rao, D.; Naik, Pradeep K.; Jain, Sunil K.; Vinod Kumar, K.; Dhanamjaya Rao, E. N.

2018-06-01

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution is an essential pre-requisite for better planning of an area. We present the groundwater vulnerability assessment in parts of the Yamuna Nagar District, Haryana State, India in an area of about 800 km2, considered to be a freshwater zone in the foothills of the Siwalik Hill Ranges. Such areas in the Lower Himalayas form good groundwater recharge zones, and should always be free from contamination. But, the administration has been trying to promote industrialization along these foothill zones without actually assessing the environmental consequences such activities may invite in the future. GIS-DRASTIC model has been used with field based data inputs for studying the vulnerability assessment. But, we find that inclusion electrical conductivity (EC) as a model parameter makes it more robust. Therefore, we rename it as GIS-DRASTIC-EC model. The model identifies three vulnerability zones such as low, moderate and high with an areal extent of 5%, 80% and 15%, respectively. On the basis of major chemical parameters alone, the groundwater in the foothill zones apparently looks safe, but analysis with the help of GIS-DRASTIC-EC model gives a better perspective of the groundwater quality in terms of identifying the vulnerable areas.

Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VII - Tritium Transport Model Documentation Package

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Volume VII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the tritium transport model documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

Assessing the consequences of unrealistic optimism: Challenges and recommendations.

PubMed

Shepperd, James A; Pogge, Gabrielle; Howell, Jennifer L

2017-04-01

Of the hundreds of studies published on unrealistic optimism (i.e., expecting a better personal future than is reasonably likely), most have focused on demonstrating the phenomenon, examining boundary conditions, or documenting causes. Few studies have examined the consequences of unrealistic optimism. In this article, we provide an overview of the measurement of unrealistic optimism, review possible consequences, and identify numerous challenges confronting investigators attempting to understand the consequences. Assessing the consequences of unrealistic optimism is tricky, and ultimately probably impossible when researchers assess unrealistic optimism at the group level (which reveals if a group of people is displaying unrealistic optimism on average) rather than the individual level (which reveals whether a specific individual displays unrealistic optimism). We offer recommendations to researchers who wish to examine the consequences of unrealistic optimism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining agent-based modeling and life cycle assessment for the evaluation of mobility policies.

PubMed

Florent, Querini; Enrico, Benetto

2015-02-03

This article presents agent-based modeling (ABM) as a novel approach for consequential life cycle assessment (C-LCA) of large scale policies, more specifically mobility-related policies. The approach is validated at the Luxembourgish level (as a first case study). The agent-based model simulates the car market (sales, use, and dismantling) of the population of users in the period 2013-2020, following the implementation of different mobility policies and available electric vehicles. The resulting changes in the car fleet composition as well as the hourly uses of the vehicles are then used to derive consistent LCA results, representing the consequences of the policies. Policies will have significant environmental consequences: when using ReCiPe2008, we observe a decrease of global warming, fossil depletion, acidification, ozone depletion, and photochemical ozone formation and an increase of metal depletion, ionizing radiations, marine eutrophication, and particulate matter formation. The study clearly shows that the extrapolation of LCA results for the circulating fleet at national scale following the introduction of the policies from the LCAs of single vehicles by simple up-scaling (using hypothetical deployment scenarios) would be flawed. The inventory has to be directly conducted at full scale and to this aim, ABM is indeed a promising approach, as it allows identifying and quantifying emerging effects while modeling the Life Cycle Inventory of vehicles at microscale through the concept of agents.

Assessing Homeland Chemical Hazards Outside the Military Gates: Industrial Hazard Threat Assessments for Department of Defense Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-01-01

catastrophic health consequences , resulting from potential exposures to industrial chemicals (Armed Forces Medical Intelligence Center, 1998). These...susceptible to damage from a toxic industrial material release. For this second component, the Consequence Assessment Tools Set (CATS) (Defense Threat...accidental toxic industrial material release, the severity of the release, and any associated consequences that might occur. These are based on estimated

Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High-Consequence Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, R.; Constantine, P.; Boslough, M.

2011-12-01

We have posed the climate change problem in a framework similar to that used in safety engineering, by acknowledging that probabilistic risk assessments focused on low-probability, high-consequence climate events are perhaps more appropriate than studies focused simply on best estimates. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We have developed specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) that can be used to make predictions about the tails of the associated probability distributions. A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field, that is, a random variable for every fixed location in the atmosphere at all times. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, or to a collection of outputs from general circulation models. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework was also developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, to assess these risks. To illustrate the use of the SSM, we considered two collections of NCAR CCSM 3.0 output data. The first collection corresponds to average December surface temperature for years 1990-1999 based on a collection of 8 different model runs obtained from the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). We calibrated the surrogate model to the available model data and make various point predictions. We also analyzed average precipitation rate in June, July, and August over a 54-year period assuming a cyclic Y2K ocean model. We applied the calibrated surrogate model to study the probability that the precipitation rate falls below certain thresholds and utilized the Bayesian approach to quantify our confidence in these predictions. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spickett, Jeffery, E-mail: J.Spickett@curtin.edu.au; Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia; Katscherian, Dianne

2012-01-15

Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component alsomore » identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.« less

Institutional Consequences of Quality Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joao Rosa, Maria; Tavares, Diana; Amaral, Alberto

2006-01-01

This paper analyses the opinions of Portuguese university rectors and academics on the quality assessment system and its consequences at the institutional level. The results obtained show that university staff (rectors and academics, with more of the former than the latter) held optimistic views of the positive consequences of quality assessment…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, Mark A.; Zak, Bernard Daniel; Backus, George A.

The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine themore » latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long-range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia's future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security. Accurate and credible regional-scale climate models are still several years in the future, and those models are essential for estimating climate impacts around the globe. This study demonstrates how a scenario-based method may be used to give insights into climate impacts on a regional scale and possible mitigation. Because of our experience in the Arctic and widespread recognition of the Arctic's importance in the Earth climate system we chose the Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security. Sandia can make a swift and significant contribution by applying modeling and simulation tools with internal collaborations as well as with outside organizations. Because changes in the Arctic environment are happening so rapidly, a successful program will be one that can adapt very quickly to new information as it becomes available, and can provide decision makers with projections on the 1-5 year time scale over which the most disruptive, high-consequence changes are likely to occur. The greatest short-term impact would be to initiate exploratory simulations to discover new emergent and robust phenomena associated with one or more of the following changing systems: Arctic hydrological cycle, sea ice extent, ocean and atmospheric circulation, permafrost deterioration, carbon mobilization, Greenland ice sheet stability, and coastal erosion. Sandia can also contribute to new technology solutions for improved observations in the Arctic, which is currently a data-sparse region. Sensitivity analyses have the potential to identify thresholds which would enable the collaborative development of 'early warning' sensor systems to seek predicted phenomena that might be precursory to major, high-consequence changes. Much of this work will require improved regional climate models and advanced computing capabilities. Socio-economic modeling tools can help define human and national security consequences. Formal uncertainty quantification must be an integral part of any results that emerge from this work.« less

"Cigarettes Are Priority": A Qualitative Study of How Australian Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Smokers Respond to Rising Cigarette Prices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guillaumier, Ashleigh; Bonevski, Billie; Paul, Christine

2015-01-01

Despite substantial modelling research assessing the impact of cigarette taxes on smoking rates across income groups, few studies have examined the broader financial effects and unintended consequences on very low-income smokers. This study explored how socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers in a high-income country manage smoking costs on…

When Moral Awareness Isn't Enough: Teaching Our Students to Recognize Social Influence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Diane F.

2014-01-01

The traditional case-based method used to teach ethics in business classrooms gives students valuable practice identifying and applying key moral principles. This approach builds on a rational model of decision making and emphasizes moral awareness and moral judgment, encouraging students to describe moral dilemmas and assess the consequences of…

Assessing conservation lands for forest birds in an exurban landscape

Treesearch

Paige F.B. Ferguson; Michael J. Conroy; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman

2017-01-01

Exurban development is the fastest growing type of land use in the United States and is prominent in the southern Appalachian region. A potential consequence of exurban development is the loss and fragmentation of wildlife habitat. We used a Bayesian model that accounts for false positive and false negative detections to make inferences about how the occupancy...

Effect of inlet cone pipe angle in catalytic converter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amira Zainal, Nurul; Farhain Azmi, Ezzatul; Arifin Samad, Mohd

2018-03-01

The catalytic converter shows significant consequence to improve the performance of the vehicle start from it launched into production. Nowadays, the geometric design of the catalytic converter has become critical to avoid the behavior of backpressure in the exhaust system. The backpressure essentially reduced the performance of vehicles and increased the fuel consumption gradually. Consequently, this study aims to design various models of catalytic converter and optimize the volume of fluid flow inside the catalytic converter by changing the inlet cone pipe angles. Three different geometry angles of the inlet cone pipe of the catalytic converter were assessed. The model is simulated in Solidworks software to determine the optimum geometric design of the catalytic converter. The result showed that by decreasing the divergence angle of inlet cone pipe will upsurge the performance of the catalytic converter.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulatedmore » jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.« less

A General Model of Distant Hybridization Reveals the Conditions for Extinction in Atlantic Salmon and Brown Trout

PubMed Central

Quilodrán, Claudio S.; Currat, Mathias; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I.

2014-01-01

Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as “distant hybridization,” the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action. PMID:25003336

A general model of distant hybridization reveals the conditions for extinction in Atlantic salmon and brown trout.

PubMed

Quilodrán, Claudio S; Currat, Mathias; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I

2014-01-01

Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as "distant hybridization," the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action.

Thermal Modeling of Resistance Spot Welding and Prediction of Weld Microstructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheikhi, M.; Valaee Tale, M.; Usefifar, GH. R.; Fattah-Alhosseini, Arash

2017-11-01

The microstructure of nuggets in resistance spot welding can be influenced by the many variables involved. This study aimed at examining such a relationship and, consequently, put forward an analytical model to predict the thermal history and microstructure of the nugget zone. Accordingly, a number of numerical simulations and experiments were conducted and the accuracy of the model was assessed. The results of this assessment revealed that the proposed analytical model could accurately predict the cooling rate in the nugget and heat-affected zones. Moreover, both analytical and numerical models confirmed that sheet thickness and electrode-sheet interface temperature were the most important factors influencing the cooling rate at temperatures lower than about T l/2. Decomposition of austenite is one of the most important transformations in steels occurring over this temperature range. Therefore, an easy-to-use map was designed against these parameters to predict the weld microstructure.

Climate Change: Modeling the Human Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.

2012-12-01

Integrated assessment models have historically relied on forward modeling including, where possible, process-based representations to project climate change impacts. Some recent impact studies incorporate the effects of human responses to initial physical impacts, such as adaptation in agricultural systems, migration in response to drought, and climate-related changes in worker productivity. Sometimes the human response ameliorates the initial physical impacts, sometimes it aggravates it, and sometimes it displaces it onto others. In these arenas, understanding of underlying socioeconomic mechanisms is extremely limited. Consequently, for some sectors where sufficient data has accumulated, empirically based statistical models of human responses to past climate variability and change have been used to infer response sensitivities which may apply under certain conditions to future impacts, allowing a broad extension of integrated assessment into the realm of human adaptation. We discuss the insights gained from and limitations of such modeling for benefit-cost analysis of climate change.

Potential application of ecological models in the European environmental risk assessment of chemicals. I. Review of protection goals in EU directives and regulations.

PubMed

Hommen, Udo; Baveco, J M Hans; Galic, Nika; van den Brink, Paul J

2010-07-01

Several European directives and regulations address the environmental risk assessment of chemicals. We used the protection of freshwater ecosystems against plant protection products, biocidal products, human and veterinary pharmaceuticals, and other chemicals and priority substances under the Water Framework Directive as examples to explore the potential of ecological effect models for a refined risk assessment. Our analysis of the directives, regulations, and related guidance documents lead us to distinguish the following 5 areas for the application of ecological models in chemical risk assessment: 1) Extrapolation of organism-level effects to the population level: The protection goals are formulated in general terms, e.g., avoiding "unacceptable effects" or "adverse impact" on the environment or the "viability of exposed species." In contrast, most of the standard ecotoxicological tests provide data only on organism-level endpoints and are thus not directly linked to the protection goals which focus on populations and communities. 2) Extrapolation of effects between different exposure profiles: Especially for plant protection products, exposure profiles can be very variable and impossible to cover in toxicological tests. 3) Extrapolation of recovery processes: As a consequence of the often short-term exposures to plant protection products, the risk assessment is based on the community recovery principle. On the other hand, assessments under the other directives assume a more or less constant exposure and are based on the ecosystem threshold principle. 4) Analysis and prediction of indirect effects: Because effects on 1 or a few taxa might have consequences on other taxa that are not directly affected by the chemical, such indirect effects on communities have to be considered. 5) Prediction of bioaccumulation within food chains: All directives take the possibility of bioaccumulation, and thus secondary poisoning within the food chain, into account. (c) 2010 SETAC.

Normative Perceptions and Past-year Consequences as Predictors of Subjective Evaluations and Weekly Drinking Behavior

PubMed Central

Merrill, Jennifer E.; Read, Jennifer P.; Colder, Craig R.

2013-01-01

Problem drinking during the college years continues to be an important area of study. Subjective evaluations of consequences have recently been demonstrated to predict future drinking behavior; however, what predicts those evaluations is yet unknown. Social Learning Theory (SLT) provides a guiding framework in this study with primary aims to investigate whether individual differences in past experience with and normative perceptions of alcohol consequences predict subjective evaluations (i.e., the extent to which consequences are perceived as negative, aversive, or severe) and weekly drinking behavior. We also test whether evaluations mediate the influence of past consequences and norms on weekly drinking behavior. Following a baseline assessment, participants (N=96 regularly drinking college students, 52% female) completed ten weekly web-based surveys on previous week alcohol use, consequences, and subjective evaluations of those consequences. A series of hierarchical linear models were used to test hypotheses. Most mediational pathways were not supported – weekly level evaluations do not appear to fully explain the effect of norms or past experience on weekly level drinking behavior. However, results demonstrated that normative perceptions of and past experience with consequences were associated with both weekly drinking behavior and subjective evaluations, and evaluations remained significant predictors of alcohol use behavior after accounting for these important between-person influences. Findings support the importance placed by SLT on cognition in drinking behavior, and suggest that norms for consequences and subjective evaluations may be appropriate targets of intervention in college students. PMID:23899424

Is Readiness to Change Drinking Related to Reductions in Alcohol Use and Consequences? A Week-to-Week Analysis

PubMed Central

Merrill, Jennifer E.; Wardell, Jeffrey D.; Read, Jennifer P.

2015-01-01

Objective: The literature on whether readiness to change (RTC) alcohol use translates into actual change among college students is both limited and mixed, despite the importance of understanding naturalistic change processes. Few studies have used fine-grained, prospective data to examine the link between RTC and subsequent drinking behavior, and alcohol consequences in particular. The present study involves tests of whether (a) intraindividual changes in RTC are negatively associated with alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences from week to week, (b) the effect of RTC on use and consequences is direct versus mediated by change in alcohol use, and (c) the association between RTC and drinking behavior is moderated by gender. Method: Participants were 96 college student drinkers who completed a baselinesurvey and 10 weekly web-based assessments of RTC, alcohol use, and consequences. Results: Hierarchical linear models indicated that, as hypothesized, reporting greater RTC on a given week (relative to one’s average level of RTC) was negatively associated with alcohol use (measured by either drinks per week or frequency of heavy episodic drinking) and alcohol consequences the following week. Changes in use fully mediated the relationship between RTC and consequences. The prospective association between RTC and both alcohol use and consequences did not differ by gender. Conclusions: Findings suggest that higher RTC translates into short-term reductions in alcohol use and in turn alcohol consequences, and highlight important avenues for future research. PMID:26402360

Assessing the Risk of Catastrophic Cyber Attack: Lessons from the Electromagnetic Pulse Commission

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-15

need to address whether it would do so? Fourth, the question of consequences must include not only the direct effects of any attack but also potential...inform cyber consequence assessments. Sixth, EMP effects are difficult to characterize but ultimately are knowable at the device level. The effects ...that the approach the EMP Commission used to assess the likelihood and consequences of EMP attacks could provide useful lessons for analysts grappling

A cross-sectional survey on consequences of nurses' burnout: moderating role of organizational politics.

PubMed

Basar, Ufuk; Basim, Nejat

2016-08-01

The aim of the study was to assess whether perceptions of organizational politics (defined as self-serving behaviours at the expense of others) influence the prospective associations between nurses' burnout and its consequences, namely, intention to quit and neglect of work. Researchers have previously investigated relationships between nurses' burnout, intention to quit, neglect of work and perceptions of organizational politics in different research models and from different perspectives. As far as we know, no studies have considered whether nurses' perceptions of organizational politics moderate the influence of burnout. A cross-sectional survey using self-report questionnaires. Data were collected by questionnaire from a sample of 456 nurses from six private hospitals in Ankara, Turkey in March 2015. Four different previously designed scales were used to measure research variables (burnout, intention to quit, neglect of work and perceptions of organizational politics). Following confirmatory validity and reliability analyses of data collection instruments, descriptive statistics for each research variable were analysed. Structural regression models were created to assess relationships among variables. Burnout resulted in intention to quit and neglect. Intention to quit partially mediated the association between burnout and neglect. Burnout gave rise to intention to quit slightly more strongly in nurses who had greater perceptions of organizational politics. This study uncovers and emphasizes the moderating role of perceptions of organizational politics in consequences of burnout. This may help hospital managers and nurses to improve costs, efficiency, satisfaction and productivity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Techniques and strategies for data integration in mineral resource assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trautwein, Charles M.; Dwyer, John L.

1991-01-01

The Geologic and the National Mapping divisions of the U.S. Geological Survey have been involved formally in cooperative research and development of computer-based geographic information systems (GISs) applied to mineral-resource assessment objectives since 1982. Experience in the Conterminous United States Mineral Assessment Program (CUSMAP) projects including the Rolla, Missouri; Dillon, Montana; Butte, Montana; and Tonopah, Nevada 1?? ?? 2?? quadrangles, has resulted in the definition of processing requirements for geographically and mineral-resource data that are common to these studies. The diverse formats of data sets collected and compiled for regional mineral-resource assessments necessitate capabilities for digitally encoding and entering data into appropriate tabular, vector, and raster subsystems of the GIS. Although many of the required data sets are either available or can be provided in a digital format suitable for direct entry, their utility is largely dependent on the original intent and consequent preprocessing of the data. In this respect, special care must be taken to ensure the digital data type, encoding, and format will meet assessment objectives. Data processing within the GIS is directed primarily toward the development and application of models that can be used to describe spatially geological, geophysical, and geochemical environments either known or inferred to be associated with specific types of mineral deposits. Consequently, capabilities to analyze spatially, aggregate, and display relations between data sets are principal processing requirements. To facilitate the development of these models within the GIS, interfaces must be developed among vector-, raster-, and tabular-based processing subsystems to reformat resident data sets for comparative analyses and multivariate display of relations.

Discrete two-sex models of population dynamics: On modelling the mating function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Legendre, Stéphane; Clobert, Jean

2010-09-01

Although sexual reproduction has long been a central subject of theoretical ecology, until recently its consequences for population dynamics were largely overlooked. This is now changing, and many studies have addressed this issue, showing that when the mating system is taken into account, the population dynamics depends on the relative abundance of males and females, and is non-linear. Moreover, sexual reproduction increases the extinction risk, namely due to the Allee effect. Nevertheless, different studies have identified diverse potential consequences, depending on the choice of mating function. In this study, we investigate the consequences of three alternative mating functions that are frequently used in discrete population models: the minimum; the harmonic mean; and the modified harmonic mean. We consider their consequences at three levels: on the probability that females will breed; on the presence and intensity of the Allee effect; and on the extinction risk. When we consider the harmonic mean, the number of times the individuals of the least abundant sex mate exceeds their mating potential, which implies that with variable sex-ratios the potential reproductive rate is no longer under the modeller's control. Consequently, the female breeding probability exceeds 1 whenever the sex-ratio is male-biased, which constitutes an obvious problem. The use of the harmonic mean is thus only justified if we think that this parameter should be re-defined in order to represent the females' breeding rate and the fact that females may reproduce more than once per breeding season. This phenomenon buffers the Allee effect, and reduces the extinction risk. However, when we consider birth-pulse populations, such a phenomenon is implausible because the number of times females can reproduce per birth season is limited. In general, the minimum or modified harmonic mean mating functions seem to be more suitable for assessing the impact of mating systems on population dynamics.

Aerosol Absorption in the Atmosphere: Perspectives from Global Model, Ground-Based Measurements, and Field Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Dubovik, Oleg; Holben, Brent; Torres, Omar; Anderson, Tad; Quinn, Patricia; Ginoux, Paul

2004-01-01

Aerosol absorption in the atmosphere poses a major uncertainty in assessing the aerosol climate effects. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, and our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt. We compare the model calculated total aerosol optical thickness, extinction, and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET, satellite retrievals from the TOMS instrument, and field observations from ACE-Asia. We will examine the most sensitive factors in determining the aerosol absorption. and the consequences of assessing the aerosol radiative forcing and atmospheric heating associated with those factors.

Aerosol Absorption in the Atmosphere: Perspectives from Global Model, Ground-Based Measurements, and Field Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Dubovik, Oleg; Holben, Brent; Anderson, Tad; Quinn, Patricia; Duncan, Bryan; Ginoux, Paul

2003-01-01

Aerosol absorption in the atmosphere poses a major uncertainty in assessing the aerosol climate effects. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, and our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt. We compare the model calculated total aerosol optical thickness, extinction, and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia. We will examine what are the most sensitive factors in determining the aerosol absorption, and the consequences of assessing the aerosol radiative forcing and atmospheric heating associated with those factors.

Aerosol Absorption in the Atmosphere: Perspectives from Global Model, Ground-Based Measurements, and Field Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Main; Dubovik, Oleg; Holben, Brent; Anderson, Tad; Quinn, Patricia; Duncan, Bryan; Ginoux, Paul

2004-01-01

Aerosol absorption in the atmosphere poses a major uncertainty in assessing the aerosol climate effects. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, and our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt. We compare the model calculated total aerosol optical thickness, extinction, and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia. We will examine the most sensitive factors in determining the aerosol absorption, and the consequences of assessing the aerosol radiative forcing and atmospheric heating associated with those factors.

Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

PubMed

Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

2005-01-01

Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

9th International Symposium on the Biosafety of Genetically Modified Organisms. Session II: Identifying and defining hazards and potential consequences I: Concepts for problem formulation and non-target risk assessment.

PubMed

Bigler, Franz

2006-01-01

The scientific organizers of the symposium put much emphasis on the identification and definition of hazard and the potential consequences thereof and three full sessions with a total of 13 presentations encompassing a wide range of related themes were planned for this topic. Unfortunately, one talk had to be cancelled because of illness of the speaker (BM Khadi, India). Some presentations covered conceptual approaches for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of GM plants (problem formulation in the risk assessment framework, familiarity approach, tiered and methodological frameworks, non-target risk assessment) and the use of models in assessing invasiveness and weediness of GM plants. Other presentations highlighted the lessons learned for future ERA from case studies and commercialized GM crops, and from monitoring of unintended releases to the environment. When the moderators of the three sessions came together after the presentations to align their summaries, there was an obvious need to restructure the 12 presentations in a way that allowed for a consistent summarizing discussion. The following new organization of the 12 talks was chosen: (1) Concepts for problem formulation and non-target risk assessment, (2) Modeling as a tool for predicting invasiveness of GM plants, (3) Case-studies of ERA of large-scale release, (4) Lessons learned for ERA from a commercialized GM plant, (5) Monitoring of unintended release of Bt maize in Mexico. The new thematic structure facilitates a more in-depth discussion of the presentations related to a specific topic, and the conclusions to be drawn are thus more consistent. Each moderator agreed to take responsibility for summarizing one or more themes and to prepare the respective report.

Normative perceptions and past-year consequences as predictors of subjective evaluations and weekly drinking behavior.

PubMed

Merrill, Jennifer E; Read, Jennifer P; Colder, Craig R

2013-11-01

Problem drinking during the college years continues to be an important area of study. Subjective evaluations of consequences have recently been demonstrated to predict future drinking behavior; however, what predicts those evaluations is yet unknown. Social Learning Theory (SLT) provides a guiding framework in this study. Primary aims are to investigate whether individual differences in past experience with alcohol consequences and normative perceptions of alcohol consequences predict subjective evaluations (i.e., the extent to which consequences are perceived as negative, aversive, or severe) and weekly drinking behavior. We also test whether evaluations mediate the influence of past consequences and norms on weekly drinking behavior. Following a baseline assessment, participants (N = 96 regularly drinking college students, 52% female) completed ten weekly web-based surveys on previous week alcohol use, consequences, and subjective evaluations of those consequences. A series of hierarchical linear models were used to test hypotheses. Most mediational pathways were not supported - weekly level evaluations do not appear to fully explain the effect of norms or past experience on weekly level drinking behavior. However, results demonstrated that normative perceptions of and past experience with consequences were associated with both weekly drinking behavior and subjective evaluations, and evaluations remained significant predictors of alcohol use behavior after accounting for these important between-person influences. Findings support the importance placed by SLT on cognition in drinking behavior, and suggest that norms for consequences and subjective evaluations may be appropriate targets of intervention in college students. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Trivialization of Workplace Violence on Its Victims: Profession and Sex Differences in a Cross-Sectional Study among Healthcare and Law Enforcement Workers.

PubMed

Geoffrion, Steve; Goncalves, Jane; Boyer, Richard; Marchand, André; Guay, Stéphane

2017-04-01

Workers from the law enforcement and healthcare sectors tend to normalize or mute their victimization from workplace violence (WPV). This study aims to assess the impact of the trivialization of WPV on psychological consequences for workers who have been affected by a WPV incident. The second aim is to assess the moderating effect of sex on the trivialization of WPV. The third and overarching aim is to assess the moderating effect of professional identity on the relations between individual and organizational factors and psychological consequences following a WPV incident. The findings are based on a convenience sample of 377 (204 female and 173 male) workers from the law enforcement and healthcare sectors. Individual factors (sex, age, professional identity, prior victimization, witnessing WPV, injuries, and trivialization of violence) and perceived support factors (colleagues' support and employer's support) were used as predictor variables of psychological consequences in hierarchical linear regression models. Sex was used as a moderator of trivialization while professional identity was used as a moderator of all predictors. When individual and social support factors were controlled for, normalizing violence was negatively associated with psychological consequences while perceiving a taboo associated with complaining about WPV was positively associated for all participants. When these relations were moderated by the sex of the participants and then by their professional identity, normalization was found to decrease psychological consequences only for male healthcare workers. To help employees cope with WPV, organizations should promote strategies adapted to profession and sex differences. For male healthcare workers, normalization as a cognitive coping strategy should be formally recognized. For both professions and sexes, organizational strategies that counter the perceived taboo of complaining about violence should be reinforced. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Integrated modeling for assessment of energy-water system resilience under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, E.; Veselka, T.; Zhou, Z.; Koritarov, V.; Mahalik, M.; Qiu, F.; Mahat, V.; Betrie, G.; Clark, C.

2016-12-01

Energy and water systems are intrinsically interconnected. Due to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events, interdependency between these two systems has been recently intensified resulting significant impacts on both systems and energy output. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. The IWESAF currently includes an extreme climate event generator to predict future extreme weather events, hydrologic and reservoir models, riverine temperature model, power plant water use simulator, and power grid operation and cost optimization model. The IWESAF can facilitate the interaction among the modeling systems and provide insights of the sustainability and resilience of the energy-water system under extreme climate events and economic consequence. The regional case demonstration in the Midwest region will be presented. The detailed information on some of individual modeling components will also be presented in several other abstracts submitted to AGU this year.

Breaking the Model Minority Stereotype: An Exploration of Asian American and Pacific Islander Student Substance Abuse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sabato, Todd

2016-01-01

Objective: To compare alcohol, tobacco, and illicit or nonmedical drug use behaviors and self-reported consequences of Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) students to cross-ethnic peers. Participants: A sample of 114,816 undergraduates between 18 and 24 completing the National College Health Assessment between 2011 and 2014 were used.…

Development and Validation of the Meaning of Work Inventory among French Workers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnoux-Nicolas, Caroline; Sovet, Laurent; Lhotellier, Lin; Bernaud, Jean-Luc

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to validate a psychometric instrument among French workers for assessing the meaning of work. Following an empirical framework, a two-step procedure consisted of exploring and then validating the scale among distinctive samples. The consequent Meaning of Work Inventory is a 15-item scale based on a four-factor model,…

Can landscape-level ecological restoration influence fire risk? A spatially-explicit assessment of a northern temperate-southern boreal forest landscape

Treesearch

Douglas J. Shinneman; Brian J. Palik; Meredith W. Cornett

2012-01-01

Management strategies to restore forest landscapes are often designed to concurrently reduce fire risk. However, the compatibility of these two objectives is not always clear, and uncoordinated management among landowners may have unintended consequences. We used a forest landscape simulation model to compare the effects of contemporary management and hypothetical...

Assessing Explosives Safety Risks, Deviations, And Consequences

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-31

Technical Paper 23 31 July 2009 DDESB Assessing Explosives Safety Risks, Deviations, And Consequences ...Deviations, And Consequences 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER...and approaches to assist warfighters in executing their mission, conserving resources, and maximizing operational effectiveness . When mission risk

Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2009-04-01

Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary technological hazards at regional and urban levels. The individual risk is understood as the probability of death (or injuries) due to possible hazardous event within one year in a given territory. It is determined through mathematical expectation of social losses taking into account the number of inhabitants in the considered settlement and probability of natural and/or technological disaster.

Chronobiological factors for compassion satisfaction and fatigue among ambulatory oncology caregivers.

PubMed

Bellicoso, Daniela; Trudeau, Maureen; Fitch, Margaret I; Ralph, Martin R

2017-01-01

Primary caregivers for victims of chronic illness and or trauma experience both positive and negative emotional consequences. These are broadly classified as compassion satisfaction (CS) and compassion fatigue (CF). Because one of the components of CF, burnout, varies with chronotype and sleep quality, we assessed the influence of chronobiological features on the broader constructs of CS and CF. Responses from primary ambulatory care oncology staff working dayshifts were assessed for potential relationships of chronotype and sleep quality with CS and CF using the professional quality of life scale. These were analyzed further in a multivariate model that included personality and job satisfaction as cofactors. We found that sleep quality was a key contributor to CS development and CF reduction. Morningness was positively linked to CS, but the univariate association was masked in the multivariate model. Job satisfaction (contingent rewards, nature of work and operating procedures) heavily influenced CS and CF development. Agreeableness and openness showed positive correlations with CS and negative with burnout, while emotional stability was linked to reduced CF. While job satisfaction and personality predictably played roles in the development of CS and CF, sleep quality and chronotype contributed significantly to benefits and negative consequences of providing care.

An epidemiologic simulation model of the spread and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) among commercial and backyard poultry flocks in South Carolina, United States.

PubMed

Patyk, Kelly A; Helm, Julie; Martin, Michael K; Forde-Folle, Kimberly N; Olea-Popelka, Francisco J; Hokanson, John E; Fingerlin, Tasha; Reeves, Aaron

2013-07-01

Epidemiologic simulation modeling of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks provides a useful conceptual framework with which to estimate the consequences of HPAI outbreaks and to evaluate disease control strategies. The purposes of this study were to establish detailed and informed input parameters for an epidemiologic simulation model of the H5N1 strain of HPAI among commercial and backyard poultry in the state of South Carolina in the United States using a highly realistic representation of this poultry population; to estimate the consequences of an outbreak of HPAI in this population with a model constructed from these parameters; and to briefly evaluate the sensitivity of model outcomes to several parameters. Parameters describing disease state durations; disease transmission via direct contact, indirect contact, and local-area spread; and disease detection, surveillance, and control were established through consultation with subject matter experts, a review of the current literature, and the use of several computational tools. The stochastic model constructed from these parameters produced simulated outbreaks ranging from 2 to 111 days in duration (median 25 days), during which 1 to 514 flocks were infected (median 28 flocks). Model results were particularly sensitive to the rate of indirect contact that occurs among flocks. The baseline model established in this study can be used in the future to evaluate various control strategies, as a tool for emergency preparedness and response planning, and to assess the costs associated with disease control and the economic consequences of a disease outbreak. Published by Elsevier B.V.

International Large-Scale Assessments: What Uses, What Consequences?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johansson, Stefan

2016-01-01

Background: International large-scale assessments (ILSAs) are a much-debated phenomenon in education. Increasingly, their outcomes attract considerable media attention and influence educational policies in many jurisdictions worldwide. The relevance, uses and consequences of these assessments are often the focus of research scrutiny. Whilst some…

Consequence analysis in LPG installation using an integrated computer package.

PubMed

Ditali, S; Colombi, M; Moreschini, G; Senni, S

2000-01-07

This paper presents the prototype of the computer code, Atlantide, developed to assess the consequences associated with accidental events that can occur in a LPG storage plant. The characteristic of Atlantide is to be simple enough but at the same time adequate to cope with consequence analysis as required by Italian legislation in fulfilling the Seveso Directive. The application of Atlantide is appropriate for LPG storage/transferring installations. The models and correlations implemented in the code are relevant to flashing liquid releases, heavy gas dispersion and other typical phenomena such as BLEVE/Fireball. The computer code allows, on the basis of the operating/design characteristics, the study of the relevant accidental events from the evaluation of the release rate (liquid, gaseous and two-phase) in the unit involved, to the analysis of the subsequent evaporation and dispersion, up to the assessment of the final phenomena of fire and explosion. This is done taking as reference simplified Event Trees which describe the evolution of accidental scenarios, taking into account the most likely meteorological conditions, the different release situations and other features typical of a LPG installation. The limited input data required and the automatic linking between the single models, that are activated in a defined sequence, depending on the accidental event selected, minimize both the time required for the risk analysis and the possibility of errors. Models and equations implemented in Atlantide have been selected from public literature or in-house developed software and tailored with the aim to be easy to use and fast to run but, nevertheless, able to provide realistic simulation of the accidental event as well as reliable results, in terms of physical effects and hazardous areas. The results have been compared with those of other internationally recognized codes and with the criteria adopted by Italian authorities to verify the Safety Reports for LPG installations. A brief of the theoretical basis of each model implemented in Atlantide and an example of application are included in the paper.

A comparative ecological risk assessment of Orimulsion and Fuel Oil No. 6 in the coastal marine environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harwell, M.; Ault, J.; Gentile, J.

1995-12-31

The conduct of comparative ecological risk assessments (CERA) resulting from the release of anthropogenic stressors into coastal marine environments requires theoretical and methodological innovations to integrate contaminant exposure with populations at risk over time and space scales. Consequently, predicted risks must be scaled to allow comparisons of relative ecological impacts in three physical dimensions plus time. This study was designed to compare the risks from hypothetical spills of Orimulsion and Fuel Oil No. 6 into the Tampa Bay ecosystem. The CERA framework used in this study integrates numerical hydrodynamic and transport-and-fate, toxicological, and biological models with extensive spatially explicit databasesmore » that describe the distributions of critical species and habitats. The presentation of the comparative ecological risks is facilitated by visualization and GIS techniques to allow realistic comparisons of toxicant exposures and their co-occurrence with key biological resources over time and across the seascape. A scaling methodology is presented that uses toxicological data as scalars for graphically representing the ecological effects associated with exposure levels for each scenario simulation. The CERA model serves as an interactive tool for assessing the relative ecological consequences of a range of potential exposure scenarios and for forecasting the longer-term productivity of critical biological resources and habitats that are key to ecosystem structure and function.« less

Violence against young women attending primary care services in Spain: prevalence and health consequences.

PubMed

Martín-Baena, David; Montero-Piñar, Isabel; Escribà-Agüir, Vicenta; Vives-Cases, Carmen

2015-08-01

There are a significant number of studies assessing the negative health consequences of violence against women. However, a limited number of studies analyse the health consequences of violence committed against young women by different types of aggressors. The goal of this study is to assess the prevalence of interpersonal violence against young women in Spain and analyse its impact on the physical and mental health of the victims. A total of 1076 women aged 18-25 years attending Spanish primary care services were selected. We estimated the prevalence of interpersonal violence and compared the health data and demographic characteristics of abused and non-abused young women, multi-logistic regression models were fitted. The Wald test was used to assess whether there were differences in the negative health consequences of intimate partner (IPV) versus non-IPV. As many as 27.6% young women reported a history of abuse, of whom 42.7% had been assaulted by their partner, 41.1% by someone other than their partner and 16.2% both by their partner and another person. The distribution of social and demographic characteristics was similar for IPV and non-IPV victims. Young abused women were three times more likely to suffer psychological distress and have somatic complaints, and they were four times more likely to use medication as compared to non-abused women. Our results suggest that all forms of violence compromise young women's health seriously. Including patients' history of abuse in their health record may help make more informed clinical decisions and provide a more integrated care. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Umyuangcaryaraq "Reflecting": multidimensional assessment of reflective processes on the consequences of alcohol use among rural Yup'ik Alaska Native youth.

PubMed

Allen, James; Fok, Carlotta Ching Ting; Henry, David; Skewes, Monica

2012-09-01

Concerns in some settings regarding the accuracy and ethics of employing direct questions about alcohol use suggest need for alternative assessment approaches with youth. Umyuangcaryaraq is a Yup'ik Alaska Native word meaning "Reflecting." The Reflective Processes Scale was developed as a youth measure tapping awareness and thinking over potential negative consequences of alcohol misuse as a protective factor that includes cultural elements often shared by many other Alaska Native and American Indian cultures. This study assessed multidimensional structure, item functioning, and validity. Responses from 284 rural Alaska Native youth allowed bifactor analysis to assess structure, estimates of location and discrimination parameters, and convergent and discriminant validity. A bifactor model of the scale items with three content factors provided excellent fit to observed data. Item response theory analysis suggested a binary response format as optimal. Evidence of convergent and discriminant validity was established. The measure provides an assessment of reflective processes about alcohol that Alaska Native youth engage in when thinking about reasons not to drink. The concept of reflective processes has potential to extend understandings of cultural variation in mindfulness, alcohol expectancies research, and culturally mediated protective factors in Alaska Native and American Indian youth.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration into A Naturally Fractured Reservoir at Kevin Dome, Montana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Minh; Onishi, Tsubasa; Carey, James William

In this report, we describe risk assessment work done using the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) applied to CO 2 storage at Kevin Dome, Montana. Geologic CO 2 sequestration in saline aquifers poses certain risks including CO 2/brine leakage through wells or non-sealing faults into groundwater or to the land surface. These risks are difficult to quantify due to data availability and uncertainty. One solution is to explore the consequences of these limitations by running large numbers of numerical simulations on the primary CO2 injection reservoir, shallow reservoirs/aquifers, faults, and wells to assess leakage risks and uncertainties. However, a largemore » number of full-physics simulations is usually too computationally expensive. The NRAP integrated assessment model (NRAP-IAM) uses reduced order models (ROMs) developed from full-physics simulations to address this issue. A powerful stochastic framework allows NRAPIAM to explore complex interactions among many uncertain variables and evaluate the likely performance of potential sequestration sites.« less

Do open-cycle hatcheries relying on tourism conserve sea turtles? Sri Lankan developments and economic-ecological considerations.

PubMed

Tisdell, Clem; Wilson, Clevo

2005-04-01

By combining economic analysis of markets with ecological parameters, this article considers the role that tourism-based sea turtle hatcheries (of an open-cycle type) can play in conserving populations of sea turtles. Background is provided on the nature and development of such hatcheries in Sri Lanka. The modeling facilitates the assessment of the impacts of turtle hatcheries on the conservation of sea turtles and enables the economic and ecological consequences of tourism, based on such hatcheries, to be better appreciated. The results demonstrate that sea turtle hatcheries serving tourists can make a positive contribution to sea turtle conservation, but that their conservation effectiveness depends on the way they are managed. Possible negative effects are also identified. Economic market models are combined with turtle population survival relationships to predict the conservation impact of turtle hatcheries and their consequence for the total economic value obtained from sea turtle populations.

An intelligent healthcare management system: a new approach in work-order prioritization for medical equipment maintenance requests.

PubMed

Hamdi, Naser; Oweis, Rami; Abu Zraiq, Hamzeh; Abu Sammour, Denis

2012-04-01

The effective maintenance management of medical technology influences the quality of care delivered and the profitability of healthcare facilities. Medical equipment maintenance in Jordan lacks an objective prioritization system; consequently, the system is not sensitive to the impact of equipment downtime on patient morbidity and mortality. The current work presents a novel software system (EQUIMEDCOMP) that is designed to achieve valuable improvements in the maintenance management of medical technology. This work-order prioritization model sorts medical maintenance requests by calculating a priority index for each request. Model performance was assessed by utilizing maintenance requests from several Jordanian hospitals. The system proved highly efficient in minimizing equipment downtime based on healthcare delivery capacity, and, consequently, patient outcome. Additionally, a preventive maintenance optimization module and an equipment quality control system are incorporated. The system is, therefore, expected to improve the reliability of medical equipment and significantly improve safety and cost-efficiency.

Back to "the Future": Evidence of a Bifactor Solution for Scores on the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale.

PubMed

McKay, Michael T; Morgan, Grant B; van Exel, N Job; Worrell, Frank C

2015-01-01

Despite its widespread use, disagreement remains regarding the structure of the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFCS). In particular there is disagreement regarding whether the scale assesses future orientation as a unidimensional or multidimensional (immediate and future) construct. Using 2 samples of high school students in the United Kingdom, 4 models were tested. The totality of results including item loadings, goodness-of-fit indexes, and reliability estimates all supported the bifactor model, suggesting that the 2 hypothesized factors are better understood as grouping or method factors rather than as representative of latent constructs. Accordingly this study supports the unidimensionality of the CFCS and the scoring of all 12 items to produce a global future orientation score. Researchers intending to use the CFCS, and those with existing data, are encouraged to examine a bifactor solution for the scale.

Wellbeing Impacts of City Policies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

PubMed Central

Hiscock, Rosemary; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Braubach, Matthias; Martuzzi, Marco; Perez, Laura; Sabel, Clive

2014-01-01

To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing of their populations for example through changes in opportunities to take physical exercise. In order to explore the potential consequences for wellbeing, we first explore what ‘wellbeing’ is and how it can be operationalized for urban planners. In this paper, we illustrate how wellbeing can be divided into objective and subjective aspects which can be measured quantitatively; our review of measures informs the development of a theoretical model linking wellbeing to policies which cities use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, we discuss the extent to which the links proposed in the conceptual model are supported by the literature and how cities can assess wellbeing implications of policies. PMID:25464129

The impact of corruption on the sustainable development of human capital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Absalyamova, Svetlana; Absalyamov, Timur; Khusnullova, Asiya; Mukhametgalieva, Chulpan

2016-08-01

The article explains the use of the human capital sustainable development index (HCSDI) to assess the quality of the reproduction of human capital. The paper provides the algorithm for calculating HCSDI and its components. Authors estimated cross-country differences of HCSDI and developed econometric model of the impact of corruption on HCSDI. The use of this model has allowed to reveal the mechanism and assess the impact of corruption on HCSDI and its components. The results of econometric analysis revealed a negative multiplier effect: an increase in the corruption of the socio-economic system of the state by 1% caused HCSDI reduce by more than 1%. The results and conclusions may be proxy-assessments of the socio-economic consequences of violations of the stability of reproduction of human capital in the conditions of the growth of corruption in the country

The Impact of Marijuana Legalization on Adolescent Use, Consequences, and Perceived Risk.

PubMed

Estoup, Ashley C; Moise-Campbell, Claudine; Varma, Malini; Stewart, David G

2016-12-05

Currently, only four states have legalized recreational marijuana use for adults over 21 years of age. Therefore, little is known about the influence that legalization will have on adolescent marijuana use. This study examines how marijuana legalization has impacted the frequency and consequences of adolescent use in a sample of participants in a school-based, substance use intervention. We hypothesized that adolescents enrolled in the intervention in years after marijuana legalization would present with more problematic use compared to those enrolled prior, and that changes in the perceived risk of marijuana would be a mechanism of problematic use. Participants were 262 students enrolled in a school-based substance use intervention in 2010 to 2015. The Customary Drinking and Drug Use Record, Alcohol and Drug Use Consequences Questionnaire, and a decisional balance matrix were used to assess marijuana frequency, negative consequences, and perceived risk of use. A mediation model was used to test the degree to which marijuana legalization may lead to increased frequency and consequences of use through perceived risk. Findings indicated a significantly positive correlation between marijuana-related consequences and perceived risk post legalization. Despite relatively equal use between both groups, adolescents in the legalization group experienced higher levels of perceived risk and increased negative consequences. Due to the rising legalization status of marijuana in the United States, it is imperative that psychoeducation is provided to adults and adolescents about the consequences of underage marijuana use.

Analysis of flood modeling through innovative geomatic methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zazo, Santiago; Molina, José-Luis; Rodríguez-Gonzálvez, Pablo

2015-05-01

A suitable assessment and management of the exposure level to natural flood risks necessarily requires an exhaustive knowledge of the terrain. This study, primarily aimed to evaluate flood risk, firstly assesses the suitability of an innovative technique, called Reduced Cost Aerial Precision Photogrammetry (RC-APP), based on a motorized technology ultra-light aircraft ULM (Ultra-Light Motor), together with the hybridization of reduced costs sensors, for the acquisition of geospatial information. Consequently, this research generates the RC-APP technique which is found to be a more accurate-precise, economical and less time consuming geomatic product. This technique is applied in river engineering for the geometric modeling and risk assessment to floods. Through the application of RC-APP, a high spatial resolution image (orthophoto of 2.5 cm), and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of 0.10 m mesh size and high density points (about 100 points/m2), with altimetric accuracy of -0.02 ± 0.03 m have been obtained. These products have provided a detailed knowledge of the terrain, afterward used for the hydraulic simulation which has allowed a better definition of the inundated area, with important implications for flood risk assessment and management. In this sense, it should be noted that the achieved spatial resolution of DEM is 0.10 m which is especially interesting and useful in hydraulic simulations through 2D software. According to the results, the developed methodology and technology allows for a more accurate riverbed representation, compared with other traditional techniques such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), with a Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE ± 0.50 m). This comparison has revealed that RC-APP has one lower magnitude order of error than the LiDAR method. Consequently, this technique arises as an efficient and appropriate tool, especially in areas with high exposure to risk of flooding. In hydraulic terms, the degree of detail achieved in the 3D model, has allowed reaching a significant increase in the knowledge of hydraulic variables in natural waterways.

Study on the Application of the Kent Index Method on the Risk Assessment of Disastrous Accidents in Subway Engineering

PubMed Central

Lu, Hao; Wang, Mingyang; Yang, Baohuai; Rong, Xiaoli

2013-01-01

With the development of subway engineering, according to uncertain factors and serious accidents involved in the construction of subways, implementing risk assessment is necessary and may bring a number of benefits for construction safety. The Kent index method extensively used in pipeline construction is improved to make risk assessment much more practical for the risk assessment of disastrous accidents in subway engineering. In the improved method, the indexes are divided into four categories, namely, basic, design, construction, and consequence indexes. In this study, a risk assessment model containing four kinds of indexes is provided. Three kinds of risk occurrence modes are listed. The probability index model which considers the relativity of the indexes is established according to the risk occurrence modes. The model provides the risk assessment process through the fault tree method and has been applied in the risk assessment of Nanjing subway's river-crossing tunnel construction. Based on the assessment results, the builders were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. The need for further research is discussed. Overall, this method may provide a tool for the builders, and improve the safety of the construction. PMID:23710136

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 6: Impact assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Consequences that might occur if certain technological developments take place in intercity transportation are described. These consequences are broad ranging, and include economic, environmental, social, institutional, energy-related, and transportation service implications. The possible consequences are traced through direct (primary) impacts to indirect (secondary, tertiary, etc.) impacts. Chains of consequences are traced, reaching as far beyond the original transportation cause as is necessary to identify all impacts felt to be influenced significantly by the technological development considered.

R&D for computational cognitive and social models : foundations for model evaluation through verification and validation (final LDRD report).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slepoy, Alexander; Mitchell, Scott A.; Backus, George A.

2008-09-01

Sandia National Laboratories is investing in projects that aim to develop computational modeling and simulation applications that explore human cognitive and social phenomena. While some of these modeling and simulation projects are explicitly research oriented, others are intended to support or provide insight for people involved in high consequence decision-making. This raises the issue of how to evaluate computational modeling and simulation applications in both research and applied settings where human behavior is the focus of the model: when is a simulation 'good enough' for the goals its designers want to achieve? In this report, we discuss two years' worthmore » of review and assessment of the ASC program's approach to computational model verification and validation, uncertainty quantification, and decision making. We present a framework that extends the principles of the ASC approach into the area of computational social and cognitive modeling and simulation. In doing so, we argue that the potential for evaluation is a function of how the modeling and simulation software will be used in a particular setting. In making this argument, we move from strict, engineering and physics oriented approaches to V&V to a broader project of model evaluation, which asserts that the systematic, rigorous, and transparent accumulation of evidence about a model's performance under conditions of uncertainty is a reasonable and necessary goal for model evaluation, regardless of discipline. How to achieve the accumulation of evidence in areas outside physics and engineering is a significant research challenge, but one that requires addressing as modeling and simulation tools move out of research laboratories and into the hands of decision makers. This report provides an assessment of our thinking on ASC Verification and Validation, and argues for further extending V&V research in the physical and engineering sciences toward a broader program of model evaluation in situations of high consequence decision-making.« less

Adverse consequences of student drinking: the role of sex, social anxiety, drinking motives.

PubMed

Norberg, Melissa M; Olivier, Jake; Alperstein, Dion M; Zvolensky, Michael J; Norton, Alice R

2011-08-01

This study examined whether biological sex, social anxiety, and drinking motives relate differently to distinct types of alcohol-related consequences using Poisson regression. One hundred eighteen college students completed self-report measures assessing drinking motives and social anxiety and an interview assessing alcohol consumption and consequences. Highly socially anxious women were particularly apt to experience adverse role functioning consequences, while men were particularly apt to experience physical consequences. Although highly socially anxious women reported more personal consequences than did women with low to moderate social anxiety, men with low to moderate social anxiety reported experiencing more social and personal consequences than did women with low to moderate social anxiety. When taking into consideration the above associations, coping motives were statistically associated with social consequences and marginally related to personal consequences, while enhancement motives were significantly associated with physical consequences. Targeting these factors may lead to effective interventions for individuals with co-occurring social anxiety and drinking problems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advanced Booster Liquid Engine Combustion Stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Kevin; Gentz, Steve; Nettles, Mindy

2015-01-01

Combustion instability is a phenomenon in liquid rocket engines caused by complex coupling between the time-varying combustion processes and the fluid dynamics in the combustor. Consequences of the large pressure oscillations associated with combustion instability often cause significant hardware damage and can be catastrophic. The current combustion stability assessment tools are limited by the level of empiricism in many inputs and embedded models. This limited predictive capability creates significant uncertainty in stability assessments. This large uncertainty then increases hardware development costs due to heavy reliance on expensive and time-consuming testing.

Spatially distributed model calibration of flood inundation guided by consequences such as loss of property

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, F.; Beven, K. J.; Frodsham, K.; Matgen, P.

2005-12-01

Flood inundation models play an increasingly important role in assessing flood risk. The growth of 2D inundation models that are intimately related to raster maps of floodplains is occurring at the same time as an increase in the availability of 2D remote data (e.g. SAR images and aerial photographs), against which model performancee can be evaluated. This requires new techniques to be explored in order to evaluate model performance in two dimensional space. In this paper we present a fuzzified pattern matching algorithm which compares favorably to a set of traditional measures. However, we further argue that model calibration has to go beyond the comparison of physical properties and should demonstrate how a weighting towards consequences, such as loss of property, can enhance model focus and prediction. Indeed, it will be necessary to abandon a fully spatial comparison in many scenarios to concentrate the model calibration exercise on specific points such as hospitals, police stations or emergency response centers. It can be shown that such point evaluations lead to significantly different flood hazard maps due to the averaging effect of a spatial performance measure. A strategy to balance the different needs (accuracy at certain spatial points and acceptable spatial performance) has to be based in a public and political decision making process.

Drinking Water Consequences Tools. A Literature Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pasqualini, Donatella

2016-05-12

In support of the goals of Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) National Protection and Programs Directorate and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the DHS Office of Science and Technology is seeking to develop and/or modify consequence assessment tools to enable drinking water systems owner/operators to estimate the societal and economic consequences of drinking water disruption due to the threats and hazards. This work will expand the breadth of consequence estimation methods and tools using the best-available data describing water distribution infrastructure, owner/assetlevel economic losses, regional-scale economic activity, and health. In addition, this project will deploy the consequence methodology and capabilitymore » within a Web-based platform. This report is intended to support DHS effort providing a review literature review of existing assessment tools of water and wastewater systems consequences to disruptions. The review includes tools that assess water systems resilience, vulnerability, and risk. This will help to understand gaps and limitations of these tools in order to plan for the development of the next-generation consequences tool for water and waste water systems disruption.« less

A Longitudinal Study of Risk-Glorifying Video Games and Behavioral Deviance

PubMed Central

Hull, Jay G.; Brunelle, Timothy J.; Prescott, Anna T.; Sargent, James D.

2014-01-01

Character-based video games do more than allow one to practice various kinds of behaviors in a virtual environment, they allow one to practice being a different kind of person. As such, we propose that games can alter self-perceptions of personal characteristics, attitudes, and values with broad consequences for behavior. In a multiwave, longitudinal study of adolescents, we examined the extent to which play of mature-rated, risk-glorifying (MRRG) games was associated with increases in alcohol use, cigarette smoking, aggression, delinquency, and risky sex as a consequence of its effects on personality, attitudes, and affiliations indicative of increased tolerance of deviance. Participants were selected using random digit dial procedures and followed for four years. Data were analyzed using linear mixed modeling to assess change over time and structural equation modeling with latent variables to test hypothesized mediational processes. Among those who play video games, playing MRRG games was associated with increases in all measures of behavioral deviance. Mediational models support the hypothesis that these effects are in part a consequence of the effects of such gameplay on sensation seeking and rebelliousness, attitudes toward deviant behavior in oneself and others, and affiliation with deviant peers. Effects were similar for males and females, and strongest for those who reported heavy play of mature-rated games and games that involved protagonists who represent non-normative and anti-social values. In sum, the current research supports the perspective that MRRG gameplay can have consequences for deviant behavior broadly defined by affecting the personality, attitudes, and values of the player. PMID:25090130

A longitudinal study of risk-glorifying video games and behavioral deviance.

PubMed

Hull, Jay G; Brunelle, Timothy J; Prescott, Anna T; Sargent, James D

2014-08-01

Character-based video games do more than allow one to practice various kinds of behaviors in a virtual environment; they allow one to practice being a different kind of person. As such, we propose that games can alter self-perceptions of personal characteristics, attitudes, and values with broad consequences for behavior. In a multiwave, longitudinal study of adolescents, we examined the extent to which play of mature-rated, risk-glorifying (MRRG) games was associated with increases in alcohol use, cigarette smoking, aggression, delinquency, and risky sex as a consequence of its effects on personality, attitudes, and affiliations indicative of increased tolerance of deviance. Participants were selected with random-digit-dial procedures and followed for 4 years. Data were analyzed with linear mixed modeling to assess change over time and structural equation modeling with latent variables to test hypothesized mediational processes. Among those who play video games, playing MRRG games was associated with increases in all measures of behavioral deviance. Mediational models support the hypothesis that these effects are in part a consequence of the effects of such gameplay on sensation seeking and rebelliousness, attitudes toward deviant behavior in oneself and others, and affiliation with deviant peers. Effects were similar for males and females and were strongest for those who reported heavy play of mature-rated games and games that involved protagonists who represent nonnormative and antisocial values. In sum, the current research supports the perspective that MRRG gameplay can have consequences for deviant behavior broadly defined by affecting the personality, attitudes, and values of the player.

Who gets evicted? Assessing individual, neighborhood, and network factors.

PubMed

Desmond, Matthew; Gershenson, Carl

2017-02-01

The prevalence and consequences of eviction have transformed the lived experience of urban poverty in America, yet little is known about why some families avoid eviction while others do not. Applying discrete hazard models to a unique dataset of renters, this study empirically evaluates individual, neighborhood, and social network characteristics that explain disparities in displacement from housing. Family size, job loss, neighborhood crime and eviction rates, and network disadvantage are identified as significant and robust predictors of eviction, net of missed rental payments and other relevant factors. This study advances urban sociology and inequality research and informs policy interventions designed to prevent eviction and stem its consequences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gap models and their individual-based relatives in the assessment of the consequences of global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shugart, Herman H.; Wang, Bin; Fischer, Rico; Ma, Jianyong; Fang, Jing; Yan, Xiaodong; Huth, Andreas; Armstrong, Amanda H.

2018-03-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) of complex systems emerged in the 1960s and early 1970s, across diverse disciplines from astronomy to zoology. Ecological IBMs arose with seemingly independent origins out of the tradition of understanding the ecosystems dynamics of ecosystems from a ‘bottom-up’ accounting of the interactions of the parts. Individual trees are principal among the parts of forests. Because these models are computationally demanding, they have prospered as the power of digital computers has increased exponentially over the decades following the 1970s. This review will focus on a class of forest IBMs called gap models. Gap models simulate the changes in forests by simulating the birth, growth and death of each individual tree on a small plot of land. The summation of these plots comprise a forest (or set of sample plots on a forested landscape or region). Other, more aggregated forest IBMs have been used in global applications including cohort-based models, ecosystem demography models, etc. Gap models have been used to provide the parameters for these bulk models. Currently, gap models have grown from local-scale to continental-scale and even global-scale applications to assess the potential consequences of climate change on natural forests. Modifications to the models have enabled simulation of disturbances including fire, insect outbreak and harvest. Our objective in this review is to provide the reader with an overview of the history, motivation and applications, including theoretical applications, of these models. In a time of concern over global changes, gap models are essential tools to understand forest responses to climate change, modified disturbance regimes and other change agents. Development of forest surveys to provide the starting points for simulations and better estimates of the behavior of the diversity of tree species in response to the environment are continuing needs for improvement for these and other IBMs.

Fishing in acid waters: A vulnerability assessment of the Norwegian fishing industry in the face of increasing ocean acidification.

PubMed

Heinrich, Luise; Krause, Torsten

2017-07-01

Ocean acidification (OA) describes a change in the ocean's carbonate chemistry. Whereas its chemical processes are largely understood, the biological and socioeconomic consequences particularly in relation to fisheries are less known. Norway is a major fishing nation worldwide and is potentially affected by OA. To improve the understanding of the socioeconomic consequences of OA, we conducted a risk assessment among the Norwegian counties using a modified version of a risk assessment framework introduced in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's "Special Report: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation," which considers risk to be the sum of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Our results show that about 13 of 19 counties are likely to experience moderate to high risk from OA. We highlight that the success of integrated risk assessments highly depends on the availability of detailed environmental, economic, and societal data. In the case of Norway, modeling data regarding the progress of OA, improved information on potential biological impacts on a larger number of species, and statistical data on social variables are required. We conclude that although still in its infancy, integrated risk assessments are important prerequisites for any form of interdisciplinary research on OA and the development of successful response strategies. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:778-789. ©2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Evaluating the temporal variability of concentrations of POPs in a glacier-fed stream food chain using a combined modeling approach.

PubMed

Morselli, Melissa; Semplice, Matteo; Villa, Sara; Di Guardo, Antonio

2014-09-15

Falling snow acts as an efficient scavenger of contaminants from the atmosphere and, accumulating on the ground surface, behaves as a temporary storage reservoir; during snow aging and metamorphosis, contaminants may concentrate and be subject to pulsed release during intense snow melt events. In high-mountain areas, firn and ice play a similar role. The consequent concentration peaks in surface waters can pose a risk to high-altitude ecosystems, since snow and ice melt often coincide with periods of intense biological activity. In such situations, the role of dynamic models can be crucial when assessing environmental behavior of contaminants and their accumulation patterns in aquatic organisms. In the present work, a dynamic fate modeling approach was combined to a hydrological module capable of estimating water discharge and snow/ice melt contributions on an hourly basis, starting from hourly air temperatures. The model was applied to the case study of the Frodolfo glacier-fed stream (Italian Alps), for which concentrations of a number of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs) and p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p'-DDE) in stream water and four macroinvertebrate groups were available. Considering the uncertainties in input data, results showed a satisfying agreement for both water and organism concentrations. This study showed the model adequacy for the estimation of pollutant concentrations in surface waters and bioaccumulation in aquatic organisms, as well as its possible role in assessing the consequences of climate change on the cycle of POPs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The family receiving home care: functional health pattern assessment.

PubMed

Hooper, J I

1996-01-01

The winds of change in health care make assessment of the family more important than ever as a tool for health care providers seeking to assist the family move themselves toward high-level wellness. Limited medical care and imposed self-responsibility for health promotion and illness prevention, which are natural consequences of these changes, move the locus of control for health management back to the family. The family's teachings, modeling, and interactions are greater influences than ever on the health of the patient. Gordon's functional health patterns provide a holistic model for assessment of the family because assessment data are classified under 11 headings: health perception and health management, nutritional-metabolic, elimination, activity and exercise, sleep and rest, cognition and perception, self-perception and self-concept, roles and relationships, sexuality and reproduction, coping and stress tolerance, and values and beliefs. Questions posed under each of the health patterns can be varied to reflect the uniqueness of the individual family as well as to inquire about family strengths and weaknesses in all patterns. Data using this model provide a comprehensive base for including the family in designing a plan of care.

Investigating the potential of e-Learning in healthcare postgraduate curricula: a structural equation model.

PubMed

Katharaki, Maria; Daskalakis, Stelios; Mantas, John

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to assess the future adaptability of e-Learning platforms within postgraduate modules. An ongoing empirical assessment was conducted amongst postgraduate students, based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The current paper presents the outcomes from the second phase of a survey, involving fifty six participants. Data analysis was performed using a structural equation model, based on partial least squares. Results highlighted the very strong effect of perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use to attitude towards using e-Learning platforms. Consequently, attitude towards use proved to be a very strong predictor of behavioral intention. Perceived usefulness, on the contrary, did not prove to have an effect to behavioral intention. Implications on the potential of using e-Learning platforms are discussed along with limitations and future directions of the study.

Estimating Fallout Building Attributes from Architectural Features and Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Building Descriptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dillon, Michael B.; Kane, Staci R.

A nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill tens to hundreds of thousands (or more) of people through exposure to fallout (external gamma) radiation. Existing buildings can protect their occupants (reducing fallout radiation exposures) by placing material and distance between fallout particles and individuals indoors. Prior efforts have determined an initial set of building attributes suitable to reasonably assess a given building’s protection against fallout radiation. The current work provides methods to determine the quantitative values for these attributes from (a) common architectural features and data and (b) buildings described using the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) taxonomy. Thesemore » methods will be used to improve estimates of fallout protection for operational US Department of Defense (DoD) and US Department of Energy (DOE) consequence assessment models.« less

Risk analysis for roadways subjected to multiple landslide-related hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corominas, Jordi; Mavrouli, Olga

2014-05-01

Roadways through mountainous terrain often involve cuts and landslide areas whose stability is precarious and require protection and stabilization works. To optimize the allocation of resources, government and technical offices are increasingly interested in both the risk analysis and assessment. Risk analysis has to consider the hazard occurrence and the consequences. The consequences can be both direct and indirect. The former include the costs regarding the repair of the roadway, the damage of vehicles and the potential fatalities, while the latter refer to the costs related to the diversion of vehicles, the excess of distance travelled, the time differences, and tolls. The type of slope instabilities that may affect a roadway may vary and its effects as well. Most current approaches either consider a single hazardous phenomenon each time, or if applied at small (for example national) scale, they do not take into account local conditions at each section of the roadway. The objective of this work is the development of a simple and comprehensive methodology for the assessment of the risk due to multiple hazards along roadways, integrating different landslide types that include rockfalls, debris flows and considering as well the potential failure of retaining walls. To quantify risk, all hazards are expressed with a common term: their probability of occurrence. The methodology takes into consideration the specific local conditions along the roadway. For rockfalls and debris flow a variety of methods for assessing the probability of occurrence exists. To assess the annual probability of failure of retaining walls we use an indicator-based model that provides a hazard index. The model parameters consist in the design safety factor, and further anchorage design and construction parameters. The probability of failure is evaluated in function of the hazard index and next corrected (in terms of order of magnitude) according to in situ observations for increase of two dynamic factors: the service load and the wall deformation. The consequences are then calculated for each hazard type according to its characteristics (mechanism, magnitude, frequency). The difference of this method in comparison with other methodologies for landslide-related hazards lies in the hazard scenarios and consequence profiles that are investigated. The depth of analysis permits to account for local conditions either concerning the hazard or the consequences (the latter with respect to the very particular characteristics of the roadway such as traffic, number of lanes, velocity…). Furthermore it provides an extensive list of quantitative risk descriptors, including both individual and collective ones. The methodology was made automatic using the data sheets by Microsoft Excel. The results can be used to support decision-taking for the planning of protection measures. Gaps in knowledge and restrictions are discussed as well.

Symmetrical and asymmetrical outcomes of leader anger expression: A qualitative study of army personnel

PubMed Central

Lindebaum, Dirk; Jordan, Peter J; Morris, Lucy

2016-01-01

Recent studies have highlighted the utility of anger at work, suggesting that anger can have positive outcomes. Using the Dual Threshold Model, we assess the positive and negative consequences of anger expressions at work and focus on the conditions under which expressions of anger crossing the impropriety threshold are perceived as productive or counterproductive by observers or targets of that anger. To explore this phenomenon, we conducted a phenomenological study (n = 20) to probe the lived experiences of followers (as observers and targets) associated with anger expressions by military leaders. The nature of task (e.g. the display rules prescribed for combat situations) emerged as one condition under which the crossing of the impropriety threshold leads to positive outcomes of anger expressions. Our data reveal tensions between emotional display rules and emotional display norms in the military, thereby fostering paradoxical attitudes toward anger expression and its consequences among followers. Within this paradoxical space, anger expressions have both positive (asymmetrical) and negative (symmetrical) consequences. We place our findings in the context of the Dual Threshold Model, discuss the practical implications of our research and offer avenues for future studies. PMID:26900171

Symmetrical and asymmetrical outcomes of leader anger expression: A qualitative study of army personnel.

PubMed

Lindebaum, Dirk; Jordan, Peter J; Morris, Lucy

2016-02-01

Recent studies have highlighted the utility of anger at work, suggesting that anger can have positive outcomes. Using the Dual Threshold Model, we assess the positive and negative consequences of anger expressions at work and focus on the conditions under which expressions of anger crossing the impropriety threshold are perceived as productive or counterproductive by observers or targets of that anger. To explore this phenomenon, we conducted a phenomenological study ( n = 20) to probe the lived experiences of followers (as observers and targets) associated with anger expressions by military leaders. The nature of task (e.g. the display rules prescribed for combat situations) emerged as one condition under which the crossing of the impropriety threshold leads to positive outcomes of anger expressions. Our data reveal tensions between emotional display rules and emotional display norms in the military, thereby fostering paradoxical attitudes toward anger expression and its consequences among followers. Within this paradoxical space, anger expressions have both positive (asymmetrical) and negative (symmetrical) consequences. We place our findings in the context of the Dual Threshold Model, discuss the practical implications of our research and offer avenues for future studies.

A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

PubMed

Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

2015-09-15

Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

Decision curve analysis: a novel method for evaluating prediction models.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Elkin, Elena B

2006-01-01

Diagnostic and prognostic models are typically evaluated with measures of accuracy that do not address clinical consequences. Decision-analytic techniques allow assessment of clinical outcomes but often require collection of additional information and may be cumbersome to apply to models that yield a continuous result. The authors sought a method for evaluating and comparing prediction models that incorporates clinical consequences,requires only the data set on which the models are tested,and can be applied to models that have either continuous or dichotomous results. The authors describe decision curve analysis, a simple, novel method of evaluating predictive models. They start by assuming that the threshold probability of a disease or event at which a patient would opt for treatment is informative of how the patient weighs the relative harms of a false-positive and a false-negative prediction. This theoretical relationship is then used to derive the net benefit of the model across different threshold probabilities. Plotting net benefit against threshold probability yields the "decision curve." The authors apply the method to models for the prediction of seminal vesicle invasion in prostate cancer patients. Decision curve analysis identified the range of threshold probabilities in which a model was of value, the magnitude of benefit, and which of several models was optimal. Decision curve analysis is a suitable method for evaluating alternative diagnostic and prognostic strategies that has advantages over other commonly used measures and techniques.

Moving toward a standard for spinal fusion outcomes assessment.

PubMed

Blount, Kevin J; Krompinger, W Jay; Maljanian, Rose; Browner, Bruce D

2002-02-01

Previous spinal fusion outcomes assessment studies have been complicated by inconsistencies in evaluative criteria and consequent variations in results. As a result, a general consensus is lacking on how to achieve comprehensive outcomes assessment for spinal fusion surgeries. The purpose of this article is to report the most validated and frequently used assessment measures to facilitate comparable outcomes studies in the future. Twenty-seven spinal fusion outcomes studies published between 1990 and 2000 were retrospectively reviewed. Study characteristics such as design, evaluative measures, and assessment tools were recorded and analyzed. Based on the reviewed literature, an outcomes assessment model is proposed including the Short Form-36 Health Survey, the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire, the North American Spine Society Patient Satisfaction Index, the Prolo Economic Scale, a 0-10 analog pain scale, medication use, radiographically assessed fusion status, and a generalized complication rate.

Software development: Stratosphere modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, H. C.

1977-01-01

A more comprehensive model for stratospheric chemistry and transport theory was developed for the purpose of aiding predictions of changes in the stratospheric ozone content as a consequence of natural and anthropogenic processes. This new and more advanced stratospheric model is time dependent and the dependent variables are zonal means of the relevant meteorological quantities which are functions of latitude and height. The model was constructed by the best mathematical approach on a large IBM S360 in American National Standard FORTRAN. It will be both a scientific tool and an assessment device used to evaluate other models. The interactions of dynamics, photochemistry and radiation in the stratosphere can be governed by a set of fundamental dynamical equations.

Can Simulation Credibility Be Improved Using Sensitivity Analysis to Understand Input Data Effects on Model Outcome?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, Jerry G.; Young, M.; Goodenow, Debra A.; Keenan, A.; Walton, M.; Boley, L.

2015-01-01

Model and simulation (MS) credibility is defined as, the quality to elicit belief or trust in MS results. NASA-STD-7009 [1] delineates eight components (Verification, Validation, Input Pedigree, Results Uncertainty, Results Robustness, Use History, MS Management, People Qualifications) that address quantifying model credibility, and provides guidance to the model developers, analysts, and end users for assessing the MS credibility. Of the eight characteristics, input pedigree, or the quality of the data used to develop model input parameters, governing functions, or initial conditions, can vary significantly. These data quality differences have varying consequences across the range of MS application. NASA-STD-7009 requires that the lowest input data quality be used to represent the entire set of input data when scoring the input pedigree credibility of the model. This requirement provides a conservative assessment of model inputs, and maximizes the communication of the potential level of risk of using model outputs. Unfortunately, in practice, this may result in overly pessimistic communication of the MS output, undermining the credibility of simulation predictions to decision makers. This presentation proposes an alternative assessment mechanism, utilizing results parameter robustness, also known as model input sensitivity, to improve the credibility scoring process for specific simulations.

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE PAGES

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; ...

2017-08-25

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

How Harmonious and Obsessive Passion for Alcohol and Marijuana Relate to Consumption and Negative Consequences

PubMed Central

Steers, Mai-Ly N.; Neighbors, Clayton; Christina Hove, M.; Olson, Nichole; Lee, Christine M.

2015-01-01

Objective: Although the concepts of harmonious and obsessive passion have been productive in explaining why people eagerly engage in such activities as sports, Internet use, and gambling, previous research has not yet extended these models to explain alcohol and marijuana use among college students. The current research was conducted to clarify the relationships among harmonious and obsessive passion, alcohol and marijuana use, and negative consequences. Method: Two studies were conducted using online assessments. In Study 1, 748 heavy drinking college students (58% female) were recruited and completed measures of passion for drinking alcohol, alcohol use, and alcohol-related negative consequences. In Study 2, 352 regular marijuana-using students (54% female) were recruited and completed assessments of marijuana passion, marijuana use, and marijuana-related consequences. Results: Study 1 found that among heavy drinking college students, harmonious passion was a stronger predictor of increased consumption than was obsessive passion, whereas obsessive passion was a stronger predictor of alcohol-related problems than was harmonious passion. Study 2 revealed similar findings with regard to harmonious passion predicting marijuana consumption; however, unlike Study 1, no significant difference between the passions was found in predicting marijuana-related problems. Conclusions: This research provides a novel perspective on motivation for alcohol and marijuana use. Findings suggest that understanding the locus of young adults’ passion for substance use may be helpful in identifying those who are likely to develop a substance use disorder and therefore may be the most in need of assistance and intervention. PMID:26402355

How Harmonious and Obsessive Passion for Alcohol and Marijuana Relate to Consumption and Negative Consequences.

PubMed

Steers, Mai-Ly N; Neighbors, Clayton; Hove, M Christina; Olson, Nichole; Lee, Christine M

2015-09-01

Although the concepts of harmonious and obsessive passion have been productive in explaining why people eagerly engage in such activities as sports, Internet use, and gambling, previous research has not yet extended these models to explain alcohol and marijuana use among college students. The current research was conducted to clarify the relationships among harmonious and obsessive passion, alcohol and marijuana use, and negative consequences. Two studies were conducted using online assessments. In Study 1, 748 heavy drinking college students (58% female) were recruited and completed measures of passion for drinking alcohol, alcohol use, and alcohol-related negative consequences. In Study 2, 352 regular marijuana-using students (54% female) were recruited and completed assessments of marijuana passion, marijuana use, and marijuana-related consequences. Study 1 found that among heavy drinking college students, harmonious passion was a stronger predictor of increased consumption than was obsessive passion, whereas obsessive passion was a stronger predictor of alcohol-related problems than was harmonious passion. Study 2 revealed similar findings with regard to harmonious passion predicting marijuana consumption; however, unlike Study 1, no significant difference between the passions was found in predicting marijuana-related problems. This research provides a novel perspective on motivation for alcohol and marijuana use. Findings suggest that understanding the locus of young adults' passion for substance use may be helpful in identifying those who are likely to develop a substance use disorder and therefore may be the most in need of assistance and intervention.

Water stress projections for the northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: anthropogenic and ecological consequences

Treesearch

Brian G. Tavernia; Mark D. Nelson; Peter Caldwell; Ge Sun

2013-01-01

Future climate and land-use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast...

[Organization of the drug supply chain in state health services: potential consequences of the public-private mix].

PubMed

López-Moreno, Sergio; Martínez-Ojeda, Rosa Haydeé; López-Arellano, Oliva; Jarillo-Soto, Edgar; Castro-Albarrán, Juan Manuel

2011-01-01

To assess the consequences of private outsourcing on the overall supply and filling of prescriptions in state health services. The research was conducted using quantitative and qualitative techniques in 13 states. The information was collected through interviews and direct observation. The interviews were carried on staff of state health services related to the drug supply chain and users of health services. The quantitative approach examined the percentage of stocked full recipes in a sample of users. States that have opted for the fully outsourced model, and properly monitored this choice, have increased the supply of drugs to their users and guaranteed the supply in the care units in charge. Other states with the outsourced model have multiple problems: direct purchase of drugs not included in the basic drugs catalogue, failure of suppliers and shortage of supplies in the laboratories that provide the company. The main disadvantages identified in all models were: the subordination of the medical criteria to administrative criteria, insufficient planning based on local care needs, heterogeneous procedures, insufficient knowledge of regulations and lack of normativity. The results indicate that the incorporation of private providers in the drug supply chain may not be the solution to bring down the shortage faced by health services, especially at the hospital level. The shift to outsourcing models has developed without incorporating evaluation mechanisms and the consequences that this transition can have on state health systems must be investigated more deeply.

Designing sustainable and economically attractive brownfield revitalization options using an integrated assessment model.

PubMed

Schädler, S; Morio, M; Bartke, S; Rohr-Zänker, R; Finkel, M

2011-03-01

We describe the development of an integrated assessment model which evaluates redevelopment options of large contaminated brownfields and we present the application of the model in a case study. Aiming to support efficient and sustainable revitalization and communication between stakeholders, the presented assessment model integrates three pinnacles of brownfield revitalization: (i) subsurface remediation and site preparation costs, (ii) market-oriented economic appraisal, and (iii) the expected contribution of planned future land use to sustainable community and regional development. For the assessment, focus is set on the early stage of the brownfield redevelopment process, which is characterized by limited data availability and by flexibility in land use planning and development scope. At this stage, revealing the consequences of adjustments and alterations in planning options can foster efficiency in communication between the involved parties and thereby facilitates the brownfield revitalization process. Results from the case-study application indicate that the integrated assessment provides help in the identification of land use options beneficial in both a sustainable and an economical sense. For the study site it is shown on one hand that brownfield redevelopment is not automatically in line with sustainable regional development, and on the other hand it is demonstrated that additional contributions to sustainability are not intrinsically tied to increased costs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving the Sensitivity of Needs Assessment for Substance Abuse Prevention Planning: The Measurement of Differential Severity of Consequences for Individual Substance Types

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shamblen, Stephen R.; Springer, J. Fred

2007-01-01

There is an absence of systematic, comparative research examining the negative consequences that are experienced as a result of using specific substances. Further, techniques typically used for needs assessment (i.e., prevalence proportions) do not take into account the probability of experiencing a negative consequence as a result of using…

Clinically assessed consequences of workplace physical violence.

PubMed

De Puy, Jacqueline; Romain-Glassey, Nathalie; Gut, Melody; Wild, Pascal; Pascal, Wild; Mangin, Patrice; Danuser, Brigitta

2015-02-01

To assess consequences of physical violence at work and identify their predictors. Among the patients in a medicolegal consultation from 2007 to 2010, the subsample of workplace violence victims (n = 185) was identified and contacted again in average 30 months after the assault. Eighty-six victims (47 %) participated. Ordinal logistic regression analyses assessed the effect of 9 potential risk factors on physical, psychological and work consequences summarized in a severity score (0-9). Severity score distribution was as follows: 4+: 14 %; 1-3: 42 %; and 0: 44 %. Initial psychological distress resulting from the violence was a strong predictor (p < 0.001) of the severity score both on work and long-term psychological consequences. Gender and age did not reach significant levels in multivariable analyses even though female victims had overall more severe consequences. Unexpectedly, only among workers whose jobs implied high awareness of the risk of violence, first-time violence was associated with long-term psychological and physical consequences (p = 0.004). Among the factors assessed at follow-up, perceived lack of employers' support or absence of employer was associated with higher values on the severity score. The seven other assessed factors (initial physical injuries; previous experience of violence; preexisting health problems; working alone; internal violence; lack of support from colleagues; and lack of support from family or friends) were not significantly associated with the severity score. Being a victim of workplace violence can result in long-term consequences on health and employment, their severity increases with the seriousness of initial psychological distress. Support from the employer can help prevent negative outcomes.

Effects of sexual assault on alcohol use and consequences among young adult sexual minority women

PubMed Central

Rhew, Isaac. C.; Stappenbeck, Cynthia A.; Bedard-Gilligan, Michele; Hughes, Tonda; Kaysen, Debra

2017-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to examine effects of sexual assault victimization on later typical alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences among young sexual minority women (SMW). Method Data were collected over four annual assessments from a national sample of 1,057 women who identified as lesbian or bisexual and were 18 to 25 years-old at baseline. Marginal structural modeling, an analytic approach that accounts for time-varying confounding through the use of inverse probability weighting, was used to examine effects of sexual assault and its severity (none, moderate, severe) on typical weekly number of drinks consumed and number of alcohol-related consequences one-year later as well as two-year cumulative sexual assault severity on alcohol outcomes at 36-month follow-up. Results Findings showed that compared to not experiencing any sexual assault, severe sexual assault at the prior assessment was associated with a 71% higher number of typical weekly drinks (Count Ratio [CR] = 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27, 2.31) and 63% higher number of alcohol-related consequences (CR = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.21, 2.20). Effects were attenuated when comparing moderate to no sexual assault; however, the linear trend across sexual assault categories was statistically significant for both outcomes. There were also effects of cumulative levels of sexual assault severity over two years on increased typical drinking and alcohol-related consequences at end of follow-up. Conclusions Sexual assault may be an important cause of alcohol misuse among SMW. These findings further highlight the need for strategies to reduce the risk of sexual assault among SMW. PMID:28287804

Effects of sexual assault on alcohol use and consequences among young adult sexual minority women.

PubMed

Rhew, Isaac C; Stappenbeck, Cynthia A; Bedard-Gilligan, Michele; Hughes, Tonda; Kaysen, Debra

2017-05-01

The purpose of this study was to examine effects of sexual assault victimization on later typical alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences among young sexual minority women (SMW). Data were collected over 4 annual assessments from a national sample of 1,057 women who identified as lesbian or bisexual and were 18- to 25-years-old at baseline. Marginal structural modeling, an analytic approach that accounts for time-varying confounding through the use of inverse probability weighting, was used to examine effects of sexual assault and its severity (none, moderate, severe) on typical weekly number of drinks consumed and number of alcohol-related consequences 1-year later as well as 2-year cumulative sexual assault severity on alcohol outcomes at 36-month follow-up. Findings showed that compared with not experiencing any sexual assault, severe sexual assault at the prior assessment was associated with a 71% higher number of typical weekly drinks (count ratio [CR] = 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.27, 2.31]) and 63% higher number of alcohol-related consequences (CR = 1.63; 95% CI [1.21, 2.20]). Effects were attenuated when comparing moderate to no sexual assault; however, the linear trend across sexual assault categories was statistically significant for both outcomes. There were also effects of cumulative levels of sexual assault severity over 2 years on increased typical drinking and alcohol-related consequences at end of follow-up. Sexual assault may be an important cause of alcohol misuse among SMW. These findings further highlight the need for strategies to reduce the risk of sexual assault among SMW. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

On the complex quantification of risk: systems-based perspective on terrorism.

PubMed

Haimes, Yacov Y

2011-08-01

This article highlights the complexity of the quantification of the multidimensional risk function, develops five systems-based premises on quantifying the risk of terrorism to a threatened system, and advocates the quantification of vulnerability and resilience through the states of the system. The five premises are: (i) There exists interdependence between a specific threat to a system by terrorist networks and the states of the targeted system, as represented through the system's vulnerability, resilience, and criticality-impact. (ii) A specific threat, its probability, its timing, the states of the targeted system, and the probability of consequences can be interdependent. (iii) The two questions in the risk assessment process: "What is the likelihood?" and "What are the consequences?" can be interdependent. (iv) Risk management policy options can reduce both the likelihood of a threat to a targeted system and the associated likelihood of consequences by changing the states (including both vulnerability and resilience) of the system. (v) The quantification of risk to a vulnerable system from a specific threat must be built on a systemic and repeatable modeling process, by recognizing that the states of the system constitute an essential step to construct quantitative metrics of the consequences based on intelligence gathering, expert evidence, and other qualitative information. The fact that the states of all systems are functions of time (among other variables) makes the time frame pivotal in each component of the process of risk assessment, management, and communication. Thus, risk to a system, caused by an initiating event (e.g., a threat) is a multidimensional function of the specific threat, its probability and time frame, the states of the system (representing vulnerability and resilience), and the probabilistic multidimensional consequences. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Regulatory Technology Development Plan - Sodium Fast Reactor: Mechanistic Source Term – Trial Calculation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Jerden, James

2016-10-01

The potential release of radioactive material during a plant incident, referred to as the source term, is a vital design metric and will be a major focus of advanced reactor licensing. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has stated an expectation for advanced reactor vendors to present a mechanistic assessment of the potential source term in their license applications. The mechanistic source term presents an opportunity for vendors to realistically assess the radiological consequences of an incident, and may allow reduced emergency planning zones and smaller plant sites. However, the development of a mechanistic source term for advanced reactors is notmore » without challenges, as there are often numerous phenomena impacting the transportation and retention of radionuclides. This project sought to evaluate U.S. capabilities regarding the mechanistic assessment of radionuclide release from core damage incidents at metal fueled, pool-type sodium fast reactors (SFRs). The purpose of the analysis was to identify, and prioritize, any gaps regarding computational tools or data necessary for the modeling of radionuclide transport and retention phenomena. To accomplish this task, a parallel-path analysis approach was utilized. One path, led by Argonne and Sandia National Laboratories, sought to perform a mechanistic source term assessment using available codes, data, and models, with the goal to identify gaps in the current knowledge base. The second path, performed by an independent contractor, performed sensitivity analyses to determine the importance of particular radionuclides and transport phenomena in regards to offsite consequences. The results of the two pathways were combined to prioritize gaps in current capabilities.« less

Disease risk curves.

PubMed

Hughes, G; Burnett, F J; Havis, N D

2013-11-01

Disease risk curves are simple graphical relationships between the probability of need for treatment and evidence related to risk factors. In the context of the present article, our focus is on factors related to the occurrence of disease in crops. Risk is the probability of adverse consequences; specifically in the present context it denotes the chance that disease will reach a threshold level at which crop protection measures can be justified. This article describes disease risk curves that arise when risk is modeled as a function of more than one risk factor, and when risk is modeled as a function of a single factor (specifically the level of disease at an early disease assessment). In both cases, disease risk curves serve as calibration curves that allow the accumulated evidence related to risk to be expressed on a probability scale. When risk is modeled as a function of the level of disease at an early disease assessment, the resulting disease risk curve provides a crop loss assessment model in which the downside is denominated in terms of risk rather than in terms of yield loss.

Hypoxia monitoring activities within the FP7 EU-project HYPOX: diverse approaches to understand a complex phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janssen, F.; Waldmann, C.; Boetius, A.

2012-04-01

Hypoxic conditions in aquatic systems and the occurrence of 'dead zones' increase worldwide due to man-made eutrophication and global warming with consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services such as fisheries, aquaculture and tourism. Monitoring of hypoxia and its consequences has to (1) account for the appropriate temporal and spatial scales, (2) separate anthropogenic from natural drivers and long-term trends from natural variations, (3) assess ecosystem response, (4) use modeling tools for generalization and prediction, and (5) share data and obtained knowledge. In 2009 the EU FP7 project HYPOX (www.hypox.net) started out as a pioneering attempt to improve and integrate hypoxia observation capacities addressing these requirements. Target ecosystems selected for HYPOX cover a broad range of settings (e.g., hydrography, oxygenation status, biological activity, anthropogenic impact) and differ in their sensitivity towards change. Semi-enclosed basins with permanent anoxia (Black Sea, Baltic Sea), are included as well as seasonally or locally hypoxic land-locked systems (fjords, lagoons, lakes) and open ocean systems with high sensitivity to global warming (North Atlantic - Arctic transition). Adopted monitoring approaches involve autonomous, cabled, and shipboard instruments and include static and profiling moorings, benthic observatories, drifters, as well as classical CTD surveys. In order to improve observatory performance, project activities encompass developments of oxygen sensors as well as calibration procedures and technologies to reduce biofouling. Modeling and data assimilation are used to synthesize findings, to obtain an in-depth understanding of hypoxia causes and consequences, and to improve forecasting capacities. For integration of the collected information into a global oxygen observing system, results are disseminated through the HYPOX portal following GEOSS data sharing principles. This presentation will give an overview of the scientific approach of HYPOX and highlight some key results comprising findings from individual ecosystems and indentified general patterns. The driving forces that lead to hypoxia are assessed as well as consequences of oxygen depletion for aquatic life and biogeochemical processes.

Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of Semiarid Basins in Arizona: A Platform for Land Cover and Climate Change Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, G. A.; Vivoni, E. R.

2011-12-01

Watershed management is challenged by rising concerns over climate change and its potential to interact with land cover alterations to impact regional water supplies and hydrologic processes. The inability to conduct experimental manipulations that address climate and land cover change at watershed scales limits the capacity of water managers to make decisions to protect future supplies. As a result, spatially-explicit, physically-based models possess value for predicting the possible consequences on watershed hydrology. In this study, we apply a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, soils distribution and availability of hydrologic data in forested regions of northern Arizona. As such, it can serve as a demonstration study in the broader region to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Through a model application to summertime conditions, we compare the hydrologic response from three sources of meteorological input: (1) an available network of ground-based stations, (2) weather radar rainfall estimates, and (3) the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on analysis of spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff generation, evapotranspiration and recharge from the root zone at high resolution for an assessment of sustainable water supplies for agricultural and domestic purposes. We also present a preliminary analysis of the impact of vegetation change arising from historical treatments in the Beaver Creek to inform the hydrologic consequences in the form of soil moisture and evapotranspiration patterns with differing degrees of proposed forest thinning. Our results are discussed in the context of improved hydrologic predictions for sustainability and decision-making under the uncertainties induced by combined climate and land cover change.

Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menoni, Scira; Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Minucci, Guido; Mejri, Ouejdane; Atun, Funda; Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia

2016-12-01

Effective flood risk mitigation requires the impacts of flood events to be much better and more reliably known than is currently the case. Available post-flood damage assessments usually supply only a partial vision of the consequences of the floods as they typically respond to the specific needs of a particular stakeholder. Consequently, they generally focus (i) on particular items at risk, (ii) on a certain time window after the occurrence of the flood, (iii) on a specific scale of analysis or (iv) on the analysis of damage only, without an investigation of damage mechanisms and root causes. This paper responds to the necessity of a more integrated interpretation of flood events as the base to address the variety of needs arising after a disaster. In particular, a model is supplied to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios. The model organizes available information after the event according to five logical axes. This way post-flood damage assessments can be developed that (i) are multisectoral, (ii) consider physical as well as functional and systemic damage, (iii) address the spatial scales that are relevant for the event at stake depending on the type of damage that has to be analyzed, i.e., direct, functional and systemic, (iv) consider the temporal evolution of damage and finally (v) allow damage mechanisms and root causes to be understood. All the above features are key for the multi-usability of resulting flood scenarios. The model allows, on the one hand, the rationalization of efforts currently implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local decision makers in implementing specific prevention and mitigation measures that are consistent with a broad risk reduction strategy.

Design and Application of a Community Land Benchmarking System for Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Riley, W. J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Koven, C. D.; Kluzek, E. B.; Mao, J.; Randerson, J. T.

2015-12-01

Benchmarking has been widely used to assess the ability of climate models to capture the spatial and temporal variability of observations during the historical era. For the carbon cycle and terrestrial ecosystems, the design and development of an open-source community platform has been an important goal as part of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Here we developed a new benchmarking software system that enables the user to specify the models, benchmarks, and scoring metrics, so that results can be tailored to specific model intercomparison projects. Evaluation data sets included soil and aboveground carbon stocks, fluxes of energy, carbon and water, burned area, leaf area, and climate forcing and response variables. We used this system to evaluate simulations from the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with prognostic atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the period from 1850 to 2005 (i.e., esmHistorical simulations archived on the Earth System Grid Federation). We found that the multi-model ensemble had a high bias in incoming solar radiation across Asia, likely as a consequence of incomplete representation of aerosol effects in this region, and in South America, primarily as a consequence of a low bias in mean annual precipitation. The reduced precipitation in South America had a larger influence on gross primary production than the high bias in incoming light, and as a consequence gross primary production had a low bias relative to the observations. Although model to model variations were large, the multi-model mean had a positive bias in atmospheric carbon dioxide that has been attributed in past work to weak ocean uptake of fossil emissions. In mid latitudes of the northern hemisphere, most models overestimate latent heat fluxes in the early part of the growing season, and underestimate these fluxes in mid-summer and early fall, whereas sensible heat fluxes show the opposite trend.

Assessing the ability of operational snow models to predict snowmelt runoff extremes (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Restrepo, P. J.; Clark, M. P.

2013-12-01

In the western US, the snow accumulation and melt cycle of winter and spring plays a critical role in the region's water management strategies. Consequently, the ability to predict snowmelt runoff at time scales from days to seasons is a key input for decisions in reservoir management, whether for avoiding flood hazards or supporting environmental flows through the scheduling of releases in spring, or for allocating releases for multi-state water distribution in dry seasons of year (using reservoir systems to provide an invaluable buffer for many sectors against drought). Runoff forecasts thus have important benefits at both wet and dry extremes of the climatological spectrum. The importance of the prediction of the snow cycle motivates an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the US's central operational snow model, SNOW17, in contrast to process-modeling alternatives, as they relate to simulating observed snowmelt variability and extremes. To this end, we use a flexible modeling approach that enables an investigation of different choices in model structure, including model physics, parameterization and degree of spatiotemporal discretization. We draw from examples of recent extreme events in western US watersheds and an overall assessment of retrospective model performance to identify fruitful avenues for advancing the modeling basis for the operational prediction of snow-related runoff extremes.

The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahfouz, Amr; Arisha, Amr

2011-01-01

Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

The Viareggio LPG railway accident: event reconstruction and modeling.

PubMed

Brambilla, Sara; Manca, Davide

2010-10-15

This manuscript describes in detail the LPG accident occurred in Viareggio on June 2009 and its modeling. The accident investigation highlighted the uncertainty and complexity of assessing and modeling what happened in the congested environment close to the Viareggio railway station. Nonetheless, the analysis allowed comprehending the sequence of events, the way they influenced each other, and the different possible paths/evolutions. The paper describes suitable models for the quantitative assessment of the consequences of the most probable accidental dynamics and its outcomes. The main finding is that after about 80 s from the beginning of the release the dense-gas cloud reached the surrounding houses that were destroyed successively by internal explosions. This fact has two main implications. First, it shows that the adopted modeling framework can give a correct picture of what happened in Viareggio. Second, it confirms the need to develop effective mitigation measures because, in case of this kind of accidents, there is no time to apply any protective emergency plans/actions. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Investigation of Bomb Cyclogenesis in NCEP's CFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, F. M.; Eichler, T.; Gottschalck, J.

2008-12-01

With the concerns, impacts and consequences of climate change increasing, the need for climate models to simulate daily weather is very important. Given the improvements in resolution and physical parameterizations, climate models are becoming capable of resolving extreme weather events. A particular type of extreme event which has large impacts on transportation, industry and the general public is a rapidly intensifying cyclone referred to as a "bomb." In this study, bombs are investigated using the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. We generate storm tracks based on 6-hourly sea-level pressure (SLP) from long-term climate runs of the CFS model. Investigation of this dataset has revealed that the CFS model is capable of producing bombs. We show a case study of a bomb in the CFS model and demonstrate that it has characteristics similar to the observed. Since the CFS model is capable of producing bombs, future work will focus on trends in their frequency and intensity so that an assessment of the potential role of the bomb in climate change can be assessed.

Modeling of GCR Environment Variations and Interpretation for Human Explorations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saganti, Premkumar

We currently have wealth of data with several short duration Space Shuttle (STS) flights to the low earth orbit (LEO) and long duration International Space Station (ISS) expeditions as well as Shuttle-Mir missions over the past few solar cycles. Assessment of such radiation risk is very important particularly for the anticipated long-term and deep-space human explorations. Recently, we have developed a database of first 500 + human explorers and their space travel logs from space exploration missions during the past four decades. Many have traveled into space for only few days while others have been in space for several months. We present the time-line distribution of the space travelers log along with the time correlated radiation en-vironment changes in to aid in the radiation risk assessment for human explorations. These model calculated results and assessment of radiation exposure helps in our understanding of radiation risk and biological consequences.

40 CFR 68.22 - Offsite consequence analysis parameters.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Hazard Assessment § 68.22 Offsite consequence analysis parameters. (a) Endpoints. For analyses of offsite consequences, the following endpoints shall be...

Mine safety assessment using gray relational analysis and bow tie model

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Mine safety assessment is a precondition for ensuring orderly and safety in production. The main purpose of this study was to prevent mine accidents more effectively by proposing a composite risk analysis model. First, the weights of the assessment indicators were determined by the revised integrated weight method, in which the objective weights were determined by a variation coefficient method and the subjective weights determined by the Delphi method. A new formula was then adopted to calculate the integrated weights based on the subjective and objective weights. Second, after the assessment indicator weights were determined, gray relational analysis was used to evaluate the safety of mine enterprises. Mine enterprise safety was ranked according to the gray relational degree, and weak links of mine safety practices identified based on gray relational analysis. Third, to validate the revised integrated weight method adopted in the process of gray relational analysis, the fuzzy evaluation method was used to the safety assessment of mine enterprises. Fourth, for first time, bow tie model was adopted to identify the causes and consequences of weak links and allow corresponding safety measures to be taken to guarantee the mine’s safe production. A case study of mine safety assessment was presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed composite risk analysis model, which can be applied to other related industries for safety evaluation. PMID:29561875

The development of personal models of diabetes in the first 2 years after diagnosis: a prospective longitudinal study.

PubMed

Lawson, V L; Bundy, C; Harvey, J N

2008-04-01

Personal models of diabetes comprise beliefs about symptoms, treatment effectiveness, consequences and emotional responses to possible future complications. They are associated with, and influence, self-care behaviour. Little work has examined potential influences on the development and maintenance of personal models. The aims of this study were: (i) to assess changes in personal models over 2 years from diagnosis of diabetes; and (ii) to examine the relative contributions of health threat communication (at diagnosis, since diagnosis, during follow-up care) and personality to personal models of diabetes 2 years post-diagnosis. Newly diagnosed patients were interviewed at diagnosis (< 3 months; time 1) and 6 months (time 2), 1 year (time 3) and 2 years (time 4) after diagnosis. Data were available for 158 patients at time 1 (32 Type 1 patients and 126 Type 2 patients), 147 at time 2, 142 at time 3 and 138 at time 4. Perceptions of symptoms, consequences, course and control of diabetes remained stable over time. Emotional responses decreased and illness coherence (perceived understanding) increased over time. Health threat communication was a stronger predictor of personal models than personality. Emotional responses to diabetes 2 years after diagnosis were predicted by perceptions of a threatening health message (at diagnosis 18%, at follow-up 5%). Health threat communication predicted perceptions of serious consequences (at diagnosis 5%, at follow-up 9%). Perceptions of a reassuring message during follow-up were related to beliefs of treatment effectiveness (26%). The communication of information and the way it is perceived is an important determinant of the patient's view of their diabetes. The initial effects of the education process at diagnosis persisted 2 years after diagnosis.

The consequences of using advanced physical assessment skills in medical and surgical nursing: A hermeneutic pragmatic study.

PubMed

Zambas, Shelaine I; Smythe, Elizabeth A; Koziol-Mclain, Jane

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the consequences of the nurse's use of advanced assessment skills on medical and surgical wards. Appropriate, accurate, and timely assessment by nurses is the cornerstone of maintaining patient safety in hospitals. The inclusion of "advanced" physical assessment skills such as auscultation, palpation, and percussion is thought to better prepare nurses for complex patient presentations within a wide range of clinical situations. This qualitative study used a hermeneutic pragmatic approach. Unstructured interviews were conducted with five experienced medical and surgical nurses to obtain 13 detailed narratives of assessment practice. Narratives were analyzed using Van Manen's six-step approach to identify the consequences of the nurse's use of advanced assessment skills. The consequences of using advanced assessment skills include looking for more, challenging interpretations, and perseverance. The use of advanced assessment skills directs what the nurse looks for, what she sees, interpretation of the findings, and her response. It is the interpretation of what is seen, heard, or felt within the full context of the patient situation, which is the advanced skill. Advanced assessment skill is the means to an accurate interpretation of the clinical situation and contributes to appropriate diagnosis and medical management in complex patient situations. The nurse's use of advanced assessment skills enables her to contribute to diagnostic reasoning within the acute medical and surgical setting.

The factor structure of the Spanish version of the Work-Family Culture Scale in a sample of workers from the advertising sector.

PubMed

Beléndez Vázquez, Marina; Martín Llaguno, Marta; Hernández Ruiz, Alejandra

2013-01-01

The Work-Family Culture Scale (WFCS) was designed to assess employee perceptions of the extent to which their organizations facilitates a work-family balance. The WFCS comprises three dimensions: Oorganizational time demands, Managerial support and Negative career consequences. The primary purpose of the present study was to analyze the factor structure and reliability of the Spanish version of the Work-Family Culture Scale in a sample of 795 employees (447 females and 348 males) working for twenty-three firms in the Spanish advertising sector. Both EFA and CFA using split-half data sets yielded an 11-item three-factor model (Managerial support, Career consequences and Organizational time demands) that fits the data very well. The findings for structural equation modeling were as follows: χ(2) (41) = 63.85; CFI = .99; GFI = .97; and RMSEA = .038. Internal consistency for the WFCS factors proved adequate. The results of the analysis indicate that this three-factor model confirms previous exploratory analyses of the original scale.

North Atlantic deep water formation and AMOC in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heuzé, Céline

2017-07-01

Deep water formation in climate models is indicative of their ability to simulate future ocean circulation, carbon and heat uptake, and sea level rise. Present-day temperature, salinity, sea ice concentration and ocean transport in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas from 23 CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) models are compared with observations to assess the biases, causes and consequences of North Atlantic deep convection in models. The majority of models convect too deep, over too large an area, too often and too far south. Deep convection occurs at the sea ice edge and is most realistic in models with accurate sea ice extent, mostly those using the CICE model. Half of the models convect in response to local cooling or salinification of the surface waters; only a third have a dynamic relationship between freshwater coming from the Arctic and deep convection. The models with the most intense deep convection have the warmest deep waters, due to a redistribution of heat through the water column. For the majority of models, the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is explained by the volumes of deep water produced in the subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas up to 2 years before. In turn, models with the strongest AMOC have the largest heat export to the Arctic. Understanding the dynamical drivers of deep convection and AMOC in models is hence key to realistically forecasting Arctic oceanic warming and its consequences for the global ocean circulation, cryosphere and marine life.

Minority stress is longitudinally associated with alcohol-related problems among sexual minority women.

PubMed

Wilson, Sarah M; Gilmore, Amanda K; Rhew, Isaac C; Hodge, Kimberley A; Kaysen, Debra L

2016-10-01

Compared to sexual minority men and heterosexual women, sexual minority women report elevated alcohol use in young adulthood. Heavy alcohol use and alcohol use disorders disproportionately affect sexual minority women across the lifespan, yet there is limited research investigating reasons for such associations. The present study investigates longitudinal associations between minority stress and both alcohol use as well as self-rated drinking consequences. Participants (N=1057) were self-identified lesbian (40.5%) and bisexual (59.5%) women between the ages of 18 to 25 recruited from across the U.S. using online advertisements. Participants completed four annual surveys. Hurdle mixed effects models were used to assess associations between minority stress and typical weekly drinking and drinking consequences one year later. Minority stress was not significantly associated with subsequent typical drinking. However, minority stress was significantly associated with having any alcohol consequences as well as the count of alcohol consequences one year later after controlling for covariates. Consistent with extant literature, this study provides evidence for a prospective association between minority stress experienced by sexual minority women and drinking consequences. This study also provides support for the potential impact of efforts to reduce minority stress faced by sexual minority women. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Activity limitation and participation restriction in adults seeking hearing aid fitting and rehabilitation.

PubMed

Helvik, Anne-Sofie; Jacobsen, Geir; Wennberg, Siri; Arnesen, Haakon; Ringdahl, Anders; Hallberg, Lillemor R-M

2006-03-15

We first aimed to describe demographic and audiological characteristics of adults referred to a university hospital for hearing aid (HA) fitting and rehabilitation. Our second aim was to employ an inventory that assesses life consequences of hearing impairment (HI) in terms of perceived activity limitation and participation restriction for the first time in a Norwegian adult outpatient population. A third aim was to study life consequences by audiological and demographic characteristics. During one year consecutive patients (n = 343) were requested to answer the Hearing Disability and Handicap Scale (HDHS) assessing activity limitation and participation restriction in relation to an audiological examination and medical consultation. The mean threshold of hearing (MTH) was ascertained by pure tone thresholds at 0.5 - 1 - 2 - 4 kHz in the better ear. Activity limitation and participation restriction were both higher for HA experienced than HA naïve subjects ( p < 0.01). In a multivariable model, the explained adjusted variance of activity limitation (R2) was 43.4% with MTH, perceived duration, and severity of hearing problems as predictor variables. Correspondingly, the explained adjusted variance of participation restriction was 28.4% for a model with MTH, age, gender and perceived severity of hearing problems as predictors. As a standard supplement to audiometric tests, HDHS may be successfully applied as a clinical tool among similar hearing impaired outpatients in order to assess activity limitation and participation restriction as part of audiological rehabilitation.

Individuals with clinically significant insomnia symptoms are characterised by a negative sleep-related expectancy bias: Results from a cognitive-experimental assessment.

PubMed

Courtauld, Hannah; Notebaert, Lies; Milkins, Bronwyn; Kyle, Simon D; Clarke, Patrick J F

2017-08-01

Cognitive models of insomnia consistently suggest that negative expectations regarding the consequences of poor sleep contribute to the maintenance of insomnia. To date, however, no research has sought to determine whether insomnia is indeed characterised by such a negative sleep-related expectancy bias, using objective cognitive assessment tasks which are more immune to response biases than questionnaire assessments. Therefore, the current study employed a reaction-time task assessing biased expectations among a group with clinically significant insomnia symptoms (n = 30) and a low insomnia symptoms group (n = 40). The task involved the presentation of scenarios describing the consequences of poor sleep, and non-sleep related activities, which could be resolved in a benign or a negative manner. The results demonstrated that the high insomnia symptoms group were disproportionately fast to resolve sleep-related scenarios in line with negative outcomes, as compared to benign outcomes, relative to the low insomnia symptoms group. The two groups did not differ in their pattern of resolving non-sleep related scenarios. This pattern of findings is entirely consistent with a sleep-specific expectancy bias operating in individuals with clinically significant insomnia symptoms, and highlights the potential of cognitive-experimental assessment tasks to objectively index patterns of biased cognition in insomnia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insight in psychosis: Standards, science, ethics and value judgment.

PubMed

Jacob, K S

2017-06-01

The clinical assessment of insight solely employs biomedical perspectives and criteria to the complete exclusion of context and culture and to the disregard of values and value judgments. The aim of this discussion article is to examine recent research from India on insight and explanatory models in psychosis and re-examine the framework of assessment, diagnosis and management of insight and explanatory models. Recent research from India on insight in psychosis and explanatory models is reviewed. Recent research, which has used longitudinal data and adjusted for pretreatment variables, suggests that insight and explanatory models of illness at baseline do not predict course, outcome and treatment response in schizophrenia, which seem to be dependent on the severity and quality of the psychosis. It supports the view that people with psychosis simultaneously hold multiple and contradictory explanatory models of illness, which change over time and with the trajectory of the illness. It suggests that insight, like all explanatory models, is a narrative of the person's reality and a coping strategy to handle with the varied impact of the illness. This article argues that the assessment of insight necessarily involves value entailments, commitments and consequences. It supports a need for a broad-based approach to assess awareness, attribution and action related to mental illness and to acknowledge the role of values and value judgment in the evaluation of insight in psychosis.

The margin of internal exposure (MOIE) concept for dermal risk assessment based on oral toxicity data - A case study with caffeine.

PubMed

Bessems, Jos G M; Paini, Alicia; Gajewska, Monika; Worth, Andrew

2017-12-01

Route-to-route extrapolation is a common part of human risk assessment. Data from oral animal toxicity studies are commonly used to assess the safety of various but specific human dermal exposure scenarios. Using theoretical examples of various user scenarios, it was concluded that delineation of a generally applicable human dermal limit value is not a practicable approach, due to the wide variety of possible human exposure scenarios, including its consequences for internal exposure. This paper uses physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling approaches to predict animal as well as human internal exposure dose metrics and for the first time, introduces the concept of Margin of Internal Exposure (MOIE) based on these internal dose metrics. Caffeine was chosen to illustrate this approach. It is a substance that is often found in cosmetics and for which oral repeated dose toxicity data were available. A rat PBK model was constructed in order to convert the oral NOAEL to rat internal exposure dose metrics, i.e. the area under the curve (AUC) and the maximum concentration (C max ), both in plasma. A human oral PBK model was constructed and calibrated using human volunteer data and adapted to accommodate dermal absorption following human dermal exposure. Use of the MOIE approach based on internal dose metrics predictions provides excellent opportunities to investigate the consequences of variations in human dermal exposure scenarios. It can accommodate within-day variation in plasma concentrations and is scientifically more robust than assuming just an exposure in mg/kg bw/day. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adolescent peer-rejection persistently alters pain perception and CB1 receptor expression in female rats.

PubMed

Schneider, Peggy; Hannusch, Christin; Schmahl, Christian; Bohus, Martin; Spanagel, Rainer; Schneider, Miriam

2014-02-01

Peer-interactions are particularly important during adolescence and teenagers display enhanced sensitivity toward rejection by peers. Social rejection has been shown to induce alterations in pain perception in humans. However, the neurobiological consequences of adolescent social rejection have yet to be extensively characterized, and no appropriate animal model is available. Here, we propose inadequate playful interactions in adolescent rats as a novel animal model for social peer-rejection and examine potential long-term consequences into adulthood. Acute social pairing of female adolescent Wistar rats with an age-matched rat from the less playful Fischer344 strain was found to alter social play and decrease pain reactivity, indicating Fischer rats as inadequate social partners for Wistar animals. Therefore, in a second experiment, adolescent female Wistar rats were either reared with another Wistar rat (adequate social rearing; control) or with a Fischer rat (inadequate social rearing; play-deprived). Beginning on day 50, all Wistar rats were group housed with same-strain partners and tested for behavioral, neurobiological and endocrine differences in adulthood. Playful peer-interactions were decreased during adolescence in play-deprived animals, without affecting social contact behavior. Consequently, adult play-deprived rats showed decreased pain sensitivity and increased startle reactivity compared to controls, but did not differ in activity, anxiety-related behavior or social interaction. Both groups also differed in their endocrine stress-response, and expression levels of the cannabinoid CB1 receptor were increased in the thalamus, whereas FAAH levels were decreased in the amygdala. The present animal model therefore represents a novel approach to assess the long-term consequences of peer-rejection during adolescence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Women Living with HIV in Rural Areas. Implementing a Response using the HIV and AIDS Risk Assessment and Reduction Model

PubMed Central

Bandali, Sarah

2014-01-01

The global fight against HIV is progressing; however, women living in rural areas particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continue to face the devastating consequences of HIV and AIDS. Lack of knowledge and geographical barriers to HIV services are compounded by gender norms often limiting the negotiation of safe sexual practices among women living in rural areas. This paper discusses findings from a qualitative study conducted in rural areas of Mozambique examining factors that influenced women to engage in HIV risk-reduction practices. The findings from this study led to the emergence of an HIV and AIDS risk assessment and reduction (HARAR) model, which is described in detail. The model helps in understanding gender-related factors influencing men and women to engage in risk-reduction practices, which can be used as a framework in other settings to design more nuanced and contextual policies and programs. PMID:25089093

Drought allocations using the Systems Impact Assessment Model: Klamath River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flug, M.; Campbell, S.G.

2005-01-01

Water supply and allocation scenarios for the Klamath River, Ore. and Calif., were evaluated using the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM), a decision support system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. SIAM is a set of models with a graphical user interface that simulates water supply and delivery in a managed river system, water quality, and fish production. Simulation results are presented for drought conditions, one aspect of Klamath River water operations. The Klamath River Basin has experienced critically dry conditions in 1992, 1994, and 2001. Drought simulations are useful to estimate the impacts of specific legal or institutional flow constraints. In addition, simulations help to identify potential adverse water quality consequences including evaluating the potential for reducing adverse temperature impacts on anadromous fish. In all drought simulations, water supply was insufficient to fully meet upstream and downstream targets for endangered species.

The modelling and assessment of whale-watching impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

New, Leslie; Hall, Ailsa J.; Harcourt, Robert; Kaufman, Greg; Parsons, E.C.M.; Pearson, Heidi C.; Cosentino, A. Mel; Schick, Robert S

2015-01-01

In recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as ‘green’ or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.

Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

PubMed

Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W; Brown, Ross D; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L H; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V

2016-09-01

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Hojlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne;

PFLOTRAN-RepoTREND Source Term Comparison Summary.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frederick, Jennifer M.

Code inter-comparison studies are useful exercises to verify and benchmark independently developed software to ensure proper function, especially when the software is used to model high-consequence systems which cannot be physically tested in a fully representative environment. This summary describes the results of the first portion of the code inter-comparison between PFLOTRAN and RepoTREND, which compares the radionuclide source term used in a typical performance assessment.

Assessment of Protocol Designed to Detect Endocine Disrupting Effects of Flutamide in Xenopus Tropicalis

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Endocrine Disruptor Screening and Testing Program. The frogs were exposed to the model anti- androgenic...the study were to develop a protocol that could be used for a standard U.S. EPA testing procedure in the Endocrine Disruptor Screening and Testing...compounds. As a consequence of this requirement, the USEPA established an Endocrine Disruptor Screening and Testing Advisory Committee (EDSTAC

Can a Supervisor’s Ethical Character be Assessed Objectively?

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-12

continues to evolve throughout people’s lives.21 Lawrence Kohlberg argued that children generate their own moral judgments motivated by social...explained a person determines their decisions based on the physical consequences. In order to prove his theory, Kohlberg created a three level/six stage...model to explain the distinct steps people progress through in their life. Kohlbergs theorized people progress through the moral stages one at a

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

A Heuristic Decision Making Model to Mitigate Adverse Consequences in a Network Centric Warfare/Sense and Respond System

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-01

made. 4. Do military decision makers identify / analyze adverse consequences presently? Few do based on this research and most don’t do it effectively ...A HEURISTIC DECISION MAKING MODEL TO MITIGATE ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES IN A NETWORK CENTRIC WARFARE / SENSE AND RESPOND SYSTEM...ENS/05-01 A HEURISTIC DECISION MAKING MODEL TO MITIGATE ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES IN A NETWORK CENTRIC WARFARE / SENSE AND RESPOND SYSTEM

Development and preliminary validation of the young adult alcohol consequences questionnaire.

PubMed

Read, Jennifer P; Kahler, Christopher W; Strong, David R; Colder, Craig R

2006-01-01

A substantial proportion of U.S. college students drink alcoholic beverages and report significant deleterious effects. The present study describes the development and initial validation of a measure designed to capture a broad range of alcohol-related consequences experienced by male and female college students. College students (N=340, 176 women) completed a self-report questionnaire battery consisting of information about demographic characteristics, drinking behaviors, and drinking consequences. Drinking consequences were assessed with a composite measure based on the Drinker Inventory of Consequences, the Young Adult Alcohol Problem Screening Test (YAAPST) and items developed by the researchers. To assess concurrent validity, a subset of the total sample (n=126) also completed the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index (RAPI). Confirmatory factor analyses supported an eight-factor solution (Social-Interpersonal Consequences, Impaired Control, Self-Perception, Self-Care, Risk Behaviors, Academic/Occupational Consequences, Physical Dependence, and Blackout Drinking), with all factors loading on a single, higher-order factor. YAACQ total scores correlated with alcohol quantity and frequency, and the RAPI. Gender comparisons suggest that the YAACQ assesses constructs of interest equally well for women and men. These results offer preliminary support for this measure. Research and clinical applications include the potential to predict future problems by specific type of consequence and to offer detailed feedback about drinking consequences to students as part of a preventive intervention. As such, the YAACQ may serve as an aid in both the description of and intervention for heavy drinking in college.

Matrix approaches to assess terrestrial nitrogen scheme in CLM4.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Z.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been commonly represented by a series of balance equations to track their influxes into and effluxes out of individual pools in earth system models (ESMs). This representation matches our understanding of C and N cycle processes well but makes it difficult to track model behaviors. To overcome these challenges, we developed a matrix approach, which reorganizes the series of terrestrial C and N balance equations in the CLM4.5 into two matrix equations based on original representation of C and N cycle processes and mechanisms. The matrix approach would consequently help improve the comparability of models and data, evaluate impacts of additional model components, facilitate benchmark analyses, model intercomparisons, and data-model fusion, and improve model predictive power.

Research in Mental Health: Social Etiology versus Social Consequences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aneshensel, Carol S.

2005-01-01

This article differentiates a social etiology model focused on identifying the social antecedents of one particular mental disorder from a social consequences model concerned with the overall mental health consequences of various social arrangements. In the social etiology model, people with disorders other than the one particular disorder singled…

Development and application of a coupled bio-geochmical and hydrological model for point and non-point source river water pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohlert, T.

2007-12-01

The aim of this paper is to present recent developments of an integrated water- and N-balance model for the assessment of land use changes on water and N-fluxes for meso-scale river catchments. The semi-distributed water-balance model SWAT was coupled with algorithms of the bio-geochemical model DNDC as well as the model CropSyst. The new model that is further denoted as SWAT-N was tested with leaching data from a long- term lysimeter experiment as well as results from a 5-years sampling campaign that was conducted at the outlet of the meso-scale catchment of the River Dill (Germany). The model efficiency for N-load as well as the spatial representation of N-load along the river channel that was tested with results taken from longitudinal profiles show that the accuracy of the model has improved due to the integration of the aforementioned process-oriented models. After model development and model testing, SWAT-N was then used for the assessment of the EU agricultural policy (CAP reform) on land use change and consequent changes on N-fluxes within the Dill Catchment. giessen.de/geb/volltexte/2007/4531/

Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe.

PubMed

Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Iglesias, Ana; Feyen, Luc; Szabó, László; Van Regemorter, Denise; Amelung, Bas; Nicholls, Robert; Watkiss, Paul; Christensen, Ole B; Dankers, Rutger; Garrote, Luis; Goodess, Clare M; Hunt, Alistair; Moreno, Alvaro; Richards, Julie; Soria, Antonio

2011-02-15

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2-1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

PubMed Central

Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Iglesias, Ana; Feyen, Luc; Szabó, László; Van Regemorter, Denise; Amelung, Bas; Nicholls, Robert; Watkiss, Paul; Christensen, Ole B.; Dankers, Rutger; Garrote, Luis; Goodess, Clare M.; Hunt, Alistair; Moreno, Alvaro; Richards, Julie; Soria, Antonio

2011-01-01

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed. PMID:21282624

Risks from Solar Particle Events for Long Duration Space Missions Outside Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Over, S.; Myers, J.; Ford, J.

2016-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) simulates the medical occurrences and mission outcomes for various mission profiles using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. As part of the work with the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), this project focuses on radiation risks from acute events during extended human missions outside low Earth orbit (LEO). Of primary importance in acute risk assessment are solar particle events (SPEs), which are low probability, high consequence events that could adversely affect mission outcomes through acute radiation damage to astronauts. SPEs can be further classified into coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares/impulsive events (Fig. 1). CMEs are an eruption of solar material and have shock enhancements that contribute to make these types of events higher in total fluence than impulsive events.

Solid lipid nanoparticles by coacervation loaded with a methotrexate prodrug: preliminary study for glioma treatment.

PubMed

Battaglia, Luigi; Muntoni, Elisabetta; Chirio, Daniela; Peira, Elena; Annovazzi, Laura; Schiffer, Davide; Mellai, Marta; Riganti, Chiara; Salaroglio, Iris Chiara; Lanotte, Michele; Panciani, Pierpaolo; Capucchio, Maria Teresa; Valazza, Alberto; Biasibetti, Elena; Gallarate, Marina

2017-03-01

Methotrexate-loaded biocompatible nanoparticles were tested for preliminary efficacy in glioma treatment. Behenic acid nanoparticles, prepared by the coacervation method, were loaded with the ester prodrug didodecylmethotrexate, which was previously tested in vitro against glioblastoma human primary cultures. Nanoparticle conjugation with an ApoE mimicking chimera peptide was performed to obtain active targeting to the brain. Biodistribution studies in healthy rats assessed the superiority of ApoE-conjugated formulation, which was tested on an F98/Fischer glioma model. Differences were observed in tumor growth rate (measured by MRI) between control and treated rats. In vitro tests on F98 cultured cells assessed their susceptibility to treatment, with consequent apoptosis, and allowed us to explain the apoptosis observed in glioma models.

Modeling the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, T. S.; Backus, G.; Warren, D.

2010-12-01

Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

Minimising twins in in vitro fertilisation: a modelling study assessing the costs, consequences and cost-utility of elective single versus double embryo transfer over a 20-year time horizon.

PubMed

Scotland, G S; McLernon, D; Kurinczuk, J J; McNamee, P; Harrild, K; Lyall, H; Rajkhowa, M; Hamilton, M; Bhattacharya, S

2011-08-01

To assess the cumulative costs and consequences of double embryo transfer (DET) or elective single embryo transfer (eSET) in women commencing in vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment aged 32, 36 and 39 years. Microsimulation model. Three assisted reproduction centres in Scotland. A total of 6153 women undergoing treatment at one of three Scottish IVF clinics, between January 1997 and June 2007. A microsimulation model, populated using data inputs derived from a large clinical data set and published literature, was developed to compare the costs and consequences of using eSET or DET over multiple treatment cycles. Disability-free live births; twin pregnancy rate; women's quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); health service costs. Not only did DET produce a higher cumulative live birth rate compared with eSET for women of all three ages, but also a higher twin pregnancy rate. Compared with eSET, DET ranged from costing an additional £ 27,356 per extra live birth in women commencing treatment aged 32 years, to costing £ 15,539 per extra live birth in 39-year-old women. DET cost ∼ £ 28,300 and ∼ £ 20,300 per additional QALY in women commencing treatment aged 32 and 39 years, respectively. Considering the high twin pregnancy rate associated with DET, coupled with uncertainty surrounding QALY gains, eSET is likely to be the preferred option for most women aged ≤ 36 years. The cost-effectiveness of DET improves with age, and may be considered cost-effective in some groups of older women. The decision may best be considered on a case-by-case basis for women aged 37-39 years. © 2011 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2011 RCOG.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

PubMed Central

Jones, Miranda C.; Dye, Stephen R.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Pinnegar, John K.; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W. L.

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). PMID:23349829

A conflict rat model of cue-induced relapse to cocaine seeking.

PubMed

Cooper, Ayelet; Barnea-Ygael, Noam; Levy, Dino; Shaham, Yavin; Zangen, Abraham

2007-09-01

Relapse to drug use in humans can be induced by exposure to drug-associated cues. The ability of drug cues to provoke 'relapse' has been studied in laboratory animals using a reinstatement model in which resumption of drug seeking is assessed after extinction of drug-reinforced responding. In this model, there are no adverse consequences of drug-seeking behavior. However, in humans, abstinence is often self-imposed, and relapse episodes likely involve making a choice between the desire for the drug and the negative consequences of pursuing it (a conflict situation). In this paper, we describe a conflict model of cue-induced relapse in rats that approximate the human condition. Rats were trained to lever press for cocaine; infusions were paired with a discrete light cue. An 'electric barrier' was then introduced by electrifying the floor area near the levers. Responding decreased over days with increasing shock intensities, until the rats did not approach the levers for 3 days. Subsequently, the effect of intermittent noncontingent light-cue presentations on resumption of lever responding (relapse) was assessed in extinction tests, with the electric barrier remaining activated; during testing, lever presses led to contingent light-cue presentations. Noncontingent cue exposure led to resumption of lever presses during the relapse tests in 14 of the 24 rats. Surprisingly, 24 h later, 11 of the 24 rats resumed lever responding in a subsequent post-noncontingent cue test under similar extinction conditions. Large individual differences in responding were observed during both tests. At its current stage of development, the conflict relapse model appears particularly suitable for studying individual differences in cue-induced relapse to cocaine seeking or factors that promote this relapse.

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

PubMed

Jones, Miranda C; Dye, Stephen R; Fernandes, Jose A; Frölicher, Thomas L; Pinnegar, John K; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W L

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Verburg, Peter H; Koomen, Eric; Hilferink, Maarten; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Lesschen, Jan Peter

Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal demands.

PRospective Observational POLIsh Study on post-stroke delirium (PROPOLIS): methodology of hospital-based cohort study on delirium prevalence, predictors and diagnostic tools.

PubMed

Klimiec, Elzbieta; Dziedzic, Tomasz; Kowalska, Katarzyna; Szyper, Aleksandra; Pera, Joanna; Potoczek, Paulina; Slowik, Agnieszka; Klimkowicz-Mrowiec, Aleksandra

2015-06-19

Between 10 % to 48 % of patients develop delirium in acute phase of stroke. Delirium determinants and its association with other neuropsychiatric disturbances in stroke are poorly understood. The wildly accepted predictive model of post-stroke delirium is still lacking. This is a prospective, observational, single-center study in patients with acute phase of stroke. We aim to include 750 patients ≥18 years with acute stroke or transient ischemic attack admitted to the stroke unit within 48 hours after stroke onset. The goals of the study are: 1) to determine frequency of delirium and subsyndromal delirium in Polish stroke patients within 7 days after admission to the hospital; 2) to determine factors associated with incidence, severity and duration of delirium and subsyndromal delirium and to create a predictive model for post-stroke delirium; 3) to determine the association between delirium and its cognitive, psychiatric, behavioral and functional short and long-term consequences; 4) to validate scales used for delirium diagnosis in stroke population. Patients will be screened for delirium on daily basis. The diagnosis of delirium will be based on DSM-V criteria. Abbreviated version of Confusion Assessment Method and Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit will be used for delirium and sub-delirium screening. Severity of delirium symptoms will be assessed by Delirium Rating Scale Revised 98 and Cognitive Test for Delirium. Patients who survive will undergo extensive neuropsychological, neuropsychiatric and functional assessment 3 and 12 months after the stroke. This study is designed to provide information on clinical manifestation, diagnostic methods and determinants of delirium spectrum disorders in acute stroke phase and their short and long-term consequences. Collected information allow us to create a predictive model for post-stroke delirium.

Assessment of methods used to determine the safety of the topical insect repellent N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET).

PubMed

Chen-Hussey, Vanessa; Behrens, Ron; Logan, James G

2014-06-03

N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET) has been registered for commercial use as an insect repellent for over five decades, and is used widely across the world. Concerns over the safety of DEET first emerged during the 1980s after reports of encephalopathy following DEET exposure, particularly in children. However, the role of DEET in either the illness or deaths was and remains purely speculative. In response to these cases a number of reviews and investigations of DEET safety were carried out. Here we examine the methods used and information available to determine the safety of DEET in humans. Animal testing, observational studies and intervention trials have found no evidence of severe adverse events associated with recommended DEET use. Minor adverse effects noted in animal trials were associated with very large doses and were not replicated between different test species. The safety surveillance from extensive humans use reveals no association with severe adverse events. This review compares the toxicity assessment using three different models to define the risk assessment and safety threshold for DEET use in humans and discusses the clinical consequences of the thresholds derived from the models.The theoretical risks associated with wearing an insect repellent should be weighed against the reduction or prevention of the risk of fatal or debilitating diseases including malaria, dengue, yellow fever and filariasis. With over 48 million European residents travelling to regions where vector borne diseases are a threat in 2009, restricting the concentration of DEET containing repellents to 15% or less, as modelled in the 2010 EU directive, is likely to result in extensive sub-therapeutic activity where repellents are infrequently applied. Future European travellers, as a consequence of inadequate personal protection, could potentially be at increased risk of vector borne diseases. Risk assessments of repellents should take these factors into account when setting safe limits.

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Discharge and Water Quality in an Arid, Urbanized Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranatunga, T.; Tong, S.; Yang, J.

2011-12-01

Hydrologic and water quality models can provide a general framework to conceptualize and investigate the relationships between climate and water resources. Under a hot and dry climate, highly urbanized watersheds are more vulnerable to changes in climate, such as excess heat and drought. In this study, a comprehensive watershed model, Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF), is used to assess the impacts of future climate change on the stream discharge and water quality in Las Vegas Wash in Nevada, the only surface water body that drains from the Las Vegas Valley (an area with rapid population growth and urbanization) to Lake Mead. In this presentation, the process of model building, calibration and validation, the generation of climate change scenarios, and the assessment of future climate change effects on stream hydrology and quality are demonstrated. The hydrologic and water quality model is developed based on the data from current national databases and existing major land use categories of the watershed. The model is calibrated for stream discharge, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment yield. The climate change scenarios are derived from the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM) simulations, and from the recent assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Climate Assessment Tool from US EPA's BASINS is used to assess the effects of likely future climate scenarios on the water quantity and quality in Las Vegas Wash. Also the presentation discusses the consequences of these hydrologic changes, including the deficit supplies of clean water during peak seasons of water demand, increased eutrophication potentials, wetland deterioration, and impacts on wild life habitats.

A study on the use and modeling of geographical information system for combating forest crimes: an assessment of crimes in the eastern Mediterranean forests.

PubMed

Pak, Mehmet; Gülci, Sercan; Okumuş, Arif

2018-01-06

This study focuses on the geo-statistical assessment of spatial estimation models in forest crimes. Used widely in the assessment of crime and crime-dependent variables, geographic information system (GIS) helps the detection of forest crimes in rural regions. In this study, forest crimes (forest encroachment, illegal use, illegal timber logging, etc.) are assessed holistically and modeling was performed with ten different independent variables in GIS environment. The research areas are three Forest Enterprise Chiefs (Baskonus, Cinarpinar, and Hartlap) affiliated to Kahramanmaras Forest Regional Directorate in Kahramanmaras. An estimation model was designed using ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods, which are often used in spatial association. Three different models were proposed in order to increase the accuracy of the estimation model. The use of variables with a variance inflation factor (VIF) value of lower than 7.5 in Model I and lower than 4 in Model II and dependent variables with significant robust probability values in Model III are associated with forest crimes. Afterwards, the model with the lowest corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC c ), and the highest R 2 value was selected as the comparison criterion. Consequently, Model III proved to be more accurate compared to other models. For Model III, while AIC c was 328,491 and R 2 was 0.634 for OLS-3 model, AIC c was 318,489 and R 2 was 0.741 for GWR-3 model. In this respect, the uses of GIS for combating forest crimes provide different scenarios and tangible information that will help take political and strategic measures.

Radiological assessment. A textbook on environmental dose analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Till, J.E.; Meyer, H.R.

1983-09-01

Radiological assessment is the quantitative process of estimating the consequences to humans resulting from the release of radionuclides to the biosphere. It is a multidisciplinary subject requiring the expertise of a number of individuals in order to predict source terms, describe environmental transport, calculate internal and external dose, and extrapolate dose to health effects. Up to this time there has been available no comprehensive book describing, on a uniform and comprehensive level, the techniques and models used in radiological assessment. Radiological Assessment is based on material presented at the 1980 Health Physics Society Summer School held in Seattle, Washington. Themore » material has been expanded and edited to make it comprehensive in scope and useful as a text. Topics covered include (1) source terms for nuclear facilities and Medical and Industrial sites; (2) transport of radionuclides in the atmosphere; (3) transport of radionuclides in surface waters; (4) transport of radionuclides in groundwater; (5) terrestrial and aquatic food chain pathways; (6) reference man; a system for internal dose calculations; (7) internal dosimetry; (8) external dosimetry; (9) models for special-case radionuclides; (10) calculation of health effects in irradiated populations; (11) evaluation of uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models; (12) regulatory standards for environmental releases of radionuclides; (13) development of computer codes for radiological assessment; and (14) assessment of accidental releases of radionuclides.« less

Is the gap between micro- and macroeconomic assessments in health care well understood? The case of vaccination and potential remedies

PubMed Central

Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Connolly, Mark P.

2014-01-01

Vaccination is an established intervention that reduces the burden and prevents the spread of infectious diseases. Investing in vaccination is known to offer a wide range of economic and intangible benefits that can potentiate gains for the individual and for society. The discipline of economics provides us with microeconomic and macroeconomic methods for evaluating the economic gains attributed to health status changes. However, the observed gap between micro and macro estimates attributed to health presents challenges to our understanding of health-related productivity changes and, consequently, economic benefits. The gap suggests that the manner in which health-related productive output is quantified in microeconomic models might not adequately reflect the broader economic benefit. We propose that there is a transitional domain that links the micro- and macroeconomic improvement attributed to health status changes. Currently available economic evaluation methods typically omit these consequences, however; they may be adjusted to integrate these transitional consequences. In practical terms, this may give rise to multipliers to apply toward indirect costs to account for the broader macroeconomic benefits linked to changes in health status. In addition, it is possible to consider that different medical conditions and health care interventions may pose different multiplying effects, suggesting that the manner in which resources are allocated within health services gives rise to variation in the amount of the micro–macro gap. An interesting way to move forward in integrating the micro- and macro-level assessment might be by integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as part of the evaluation framework, as was recently performed for pandemic flu and malaria vaccination. PMID:27226842

Is the gap between micro- and macroeconomic assessments in health care well understood? The case of vaccination and potential remedies.

PubMed

Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Connolly, Mark P

2014-01-01

Vaccination is an established intervention that reduces the burden and prevents the spread of infectious diseases. Investing in vaccination is known to offer a wide range of economic and intangible benefits that can potentiate gains for the individual and for society. The discipline of economics provides us with microeconomic and macroeconomic methods for evaluating the economic gains attributed to health status changes. However, the observed gap between micro and macro estimates attributed to health presents challenges to our understanding of health-related productivity changes and, consequently, economic benefits. The gap suggests that the manner in which health-related productive output is quantified in microeconomic models might not adequately reflect the broader economic benefit. We propose that there is a transitional domain that links the micro- and macroeconomic improvement attributed to health status changes. Currently available economic evaluation methods typically omit these consequences, however; they may be adjusted to integrate these transitional consequences. In practical terms, this may give rise to multipliers to apply toward indirect costs to account for the broader macroeconomic benefits linked to changes in health status. In addition, it is possible to consider that different medical conditions and health care interventions may pose different multiplying effects, suggesting that the manner in which resources are allocated within health services gives rise to variation in the amount of the micro-macro gap. An interesting way to move forward in integrating the micro- and macro-level assessment might be by integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as part of the evaluation framework, as was recently performed for pandemic flu and malaria vaccination.

Assessment of Cognitive Function in the Water Maze Task: Maximizing Data Collection and Analysis in Animal Models of Brain Injury.

PubMed

Whiting, Mark D; Kokiko-Cochran, Olga N

2016-01-01

Animal models play a critical role in understanding the biomechanical, pathophysiological, and behavioral consequences of traumatic brain injury (TBI). In preclinical studies, cognitive impairment induced by TBI is often assessed using the Morris water maze (MWM). Frequently described as a hippocampally dependent spatial navigation task, the MWM is a highly integrative behavioral task that requires intact functioning in numerous brain regions and involves an interdependent set of mnemonic and non-mnemonic processes. In this chapter, we review the special considerations involved in using the MWM in animal models of TBI, with an emphasis on maximizing the degree of information extracted from performance data. We include a theoretical framework for examining deficits in discrete stages of cognitive function and offer suggestions for how to make inferences regarding the specific nature of TBI-induced cognitive impairment. The ultimate goal is more precise modeling of the animal equivalents of the cognitive deficits seen in human TBI.

Cost-effectiveness in Clostridium difficile treatment decision-making

PubMed Central

Nuijten, Mark JC; Keller, Josbert J; Visser, Caroline E; Redekop, Ken; Claassen, Eric; Speelman, Peter; Pronk, Marja H

2015-01-01

AIM: To develop a framework for the clinical and health economic assessment for management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). METHODS: CDI has vast economic consequences emphasizing the need for innovative and cost effective solutions, which were aim of this study. A guidance model was developed for coverage decisions and guideline development in CDI. The model included pharmacotherapy with oral metronidazole or oral vancomycin, which is the mainstay for pharmacological treatment of CDI and is recommended by most treatment guidelines. RESULTS: A design for a patient-based cost-effectiveness model was developed, which can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current and future treatment strategies in CDI. Patient-based outcomes were extrapolated to the population by including factors like, e.g., person-to-person transmission, isolation precautions and closing and cleaning wards of hospitals. CONCLUSION: The proposed framework for a population-based CDI model may be used for clinical and health economic assessments of CDI guidelines and coverage decisions for emerging treatments for CDI. PMID:26601096

The effects of types of social networks, perceived social support, and loneliness on the health of older people: accounting for the social context.

PubMed

Stephens, Christine; Alpass, Fiona; Towers, Andy; Stevenson, Brendan

2011-09-01

To use an ecological model of ageing (Berkman, Glass, Brissette, & Seeman, 2000) which includes upstream social context factors and downstream social support factors to examine the effects of social networks on health. Postal survey responses from a representative population sample of New Zealanders aged 55 to 70 years (N = 6,662). Correlations and multiple regression analyses provided support for a model in which social context contributes to social network type, which affects perceived social support and loneliness, and consequent mental and physical health. Ethnicity was related to social networks and health but this was largely accounted for by other contextual variables measuring socioeconomic status. Gender and age were also significant variables in the model. Social network type is a useful way to assess social integration within this model of cascading effects. More detailed information could be gained through the development of our network assessment instruments for older people.

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2016-09-01

Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

Cost-effectiveness in Clostridium difficile treatment decision-making.

PubMed

Nuijten, Mark Jc; Keller, Josbert J; Visser, Caroline E; Redekop, Ken; Claassen, Eric; Speelman, Peter; Pronk, Marja H

2015-11-16

To develop a framework for the clinical and health economic assessment for management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). CDI has vast economic consequences emphasizing the need for innovative and cost effective solutions, which were aim of this study. A guidance model was developed for coverage decisions and guideline development in CDI. The model included pharmacotherapy with oral metronidazole or oral vancomycin, which is the mainstay for pharmacological treatment of CDI and is recommended by most treatment guidelines. A design for a patient-based cost-effectiveness model was developed, which can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current and future treatment strategies in CDI. Patient-based outcomes were extrapolated to the population by including factors like, e.g., person-to-person transmission, isolation precautions and closing and cleaning wards of hospitals. The proposed framework for a population-based CDI model may be used for clinical and health economic assessments of CDI guidelines and coverage decisions for emerging treatments for CDI.

Cross-cultural undergraduate medical education in North America: theoretical concepts and educational approaches.

PubMed

Reitmanova, Sylvia

2011-04-01

Cross-cultural undergraduate medical education in North America lacks conceptual clarity. Consequently, school curricula are unsystematic, nonuniform, and fragmented. This article provides a literature review about available conceptual models of cross-cultural medical education. The clarification of these models may inform the development of effective educational programs to enable students to provide better quality care to patients from diverse sociocultural backgrounds. The approaches to cross-cultural health education can be organized under the rubric of two specific conceptual models: cultural competence and critical culturalism. The variation in the conception of culture adopted in these two models results in differences in all curricular components: learning outcomes, content, educational strategies, teaching methods, student assessment, and program evaluation. Medical schools could benefit from more theoretical guidance on the learning outcomes, content, and educational strategies provided to them by governing and licensing bodies. More student assessments and program evaluations are needed in order to appraise the effectiveness of cross-cultural undergraduate medical education.

Children's understanding of mental illness: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Fox, C; Buchanan-Barrow, E; Barrett, M

2008-01-01

This study aimed to investigate children's thinking about mental illness by employing a well-established framework of adult illness understanding. The study adopted a semistructured interview technique and a card selection task to assess children's responses to causes, consequences, timeline and curability of the different types of mental illness. The children were aged between 5 and 11 years. Results indicated a developmental trend in the children's thinking about mental illness; there was an increase in the children's understanding of the causes, consequences, curability and timeline of mental illness with age. The older children demonstrated a more sophisticated and accurate thinking about mental illness compared with the younger children, who tended to rely on a medical model in order to comprehend novel mental illnesses. Furthermore, the girls exhibited more compassion, showing greater social acceptance compared with the boys. The Leventhal model provides a useful framework within which to investigate children's knowledge and understanding of mental illness. Limitations of the study and implications for future research are discussed.

Positive-Themed Suicide Prevention Messages Delivered by Adolescent Peer Leaders: Proximal Impact on Classmates' Coping Attitudes and Perceptions of Adult Support.

PubMed

Petrova, Mariya; Wyman, Peter A; Schmeelk-Cone, Karen; Pisani, Anthony R

2015-12-01

Developing science-based communication guidance and positive-themed messages for suicide prevention are important priorities. Drawing on social learning and elaboration likelihood models, we designed and tested two positive-focused presentations by high school peer leaders delivered in the context of a suicide prevention program (Sources of Strength). Thirty-six classrooms in four schools (N = 706 students) were randomized to (1) peer leader modeling of healthy coping, (2) peer leader modeling plus audience involvement to identify trusted adults, or (3) control condition. Students' attitudes and norms were assessed by immediate post-only assessments. Exposure to either presentation enhanced positive coping attitudes and perceptions of adult support. Students who reported suicide ideation in the past 12 months benefited more than nonsuicidal students. Beyond modeling alone, audience involvement modestly enhanced expectations of adult support, congruent with the elaboration likelihood model. Positive peer modeling is a promising alternative to communications focused on negative consequences and directives and may enhance social-interpersonal factors linked to reduced suicidal behaviors. © 2015 The American Association of Suicidology.

Positive-Themed Suicide Prevention Messages Delivered by Adolescent Peer Leaders: Proximal Impact on Classmates’ Coping Attitudes and Perceptions of Adult Support

PubMed Central

Petrova, Mariya; Wyman, Peter A.; Schmeelk-Cone, Karen; Pisani, Anthony R.

2015-01-01

Developing science-based communication guidance and positive-themed messages for suicide prevention are important priorities. Drawing on social learning and elaboration likelihood models, we designed and tested two positive-focused presentations by high school peer leaders delivered in the context of a suicide prevention program (Sources of Strength). Thirty six classrooms in four schools (N=706 students) were randomized to: (a) peer leader modeling of healthy coping, (b) peer leader modeling plus audience involvement to identify trusted adults, or (c) control condition. Students’ attitudes and norms were assessed by immediate post-only assessments. Exposure to either presentation enhanced positive coping attitudes and perceptions of adult support. Students who reported suicide ideation in the past 12 months benefited more than non-suicidal students. Beyond modeling alone, audience involvement modestly enhanced expectations of adult support, congruent with the elaboration likelihood model. Positive peer modeling is a promising alternative to communications focused on negative consequences and directives and may enhance social-interpersonal factors linked to reduced suicidal behaviors. PMID:25692382

Analyzing the sensitivity of a flood risk assessment model towards its input data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glas, Hanne; Deruyter, Greet; De Maeyer, Philippe; Mandal, Arpita; James-Williamson, Sherene

2016-11-01

The Small Island Developing States are characterized by an unstable economy and low-lying, densely populated cities, resulting in a high vulnerability to natural hazards. Flooding affects more people than any other hazard. To limit the consequences of these hazards, adequate risk assessments are indispensable. Satisfactory input data for these assessments are hard to acquire, especially in developing countries. Therefore, in this study, a methodology was developed and evaluated to test the sensitivity of a flood model towards its input data in order to determine a minimum set of indispensable data. In a first step, a flood damage assessment model was created for the case study of Annotto Bay, Jamaica. This model generates a damage map for the region based on the flood extent map of the 2001 inundations caused by Tropical Storm Michelle. Three damages were taken into account: building, road and crop damage. Twelve scenarios were generated, each with a different combination of input data, testing one of the three damage calculations for its sensitivity. One main conclusion was that population density, in combination with an average number of people per household, is a good parameter in determining the building damage when exact building locations are unknown. Furthermore, the importance of roads for an accurate visual result was demonstrated.

EVALUATING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits or consequences. Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving toward complex, spatially explicit regional assessments. These problems have to be addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial and temporal scales. The extensive data requirements and the difficult task of building input parameter files, however, have long been an obstacle to the timely and cost-effective use of such complex models by resource managers. The U.S. EPA Landscape Ecology Branch in collaboration with the USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center has developed a geographic information system (GIS) tool to facilitate this process. A GIS provides the framework within which spatially distributed data are collected and used to prepare model input files, and model results are evaluated. The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool uses widely available standardized spatial datasets that can be obtained via the internet at no cost to the user. The data are used to develop input parameter files for KINEROS2 and SWAT, two watershed runoff and erosion simulation models that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. AGWA automates the process of transforming digital data into simulation model results and provides a visualization tool

Comparative assessment of analytical approaches to quantify the risk for introduction of rare animal diseases: the example of avian influenza in Spain.

PubMed

Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Fernando; Perez, Andrés; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

2012-08-01

Trade of animals and animal products imposes an uncertain and variable risk for exotic animal diseases introduction into importing countries. Risk analysis provides importing countries with an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted method for assessing that risk. Over the last decades, European Union countries have conducted probabilistic risk assessments quite frequently to quantify the risk for rare animal diseases introduction into their territories. Most probabilistic animal health risk assessments have been typically classified into one-level and multilevel binomial models. One-level models are more simple than multilevel models because they assume that animals or products originate from one single population. However, it is unknown whether such simplification may result in substantially different results compared to those obtained through the use of multilevel models. Here, data used on a probabilistic multilevel binomial model formulated to assess the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain were reanalyzed using a one-level binomial model and their outcomes were compared. An alternative ordinal model is also proposed here, which makes use of simpler assumptions and less information compared to those required by traditional one-level and multilevel approaches. Results suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, results of the one-level and ordinal approaches are similar to those obtained using multilevel models. Consequently, we argue that, when data are insufficient to run traditional probabilistic models, the ordinal approach presented here may be a suitable alternative to rank exporting countries in terms of the risk that they impose for the spread of rare animal diseases into disease-free countries. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

DOE PAGES

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.; ...

2017-11-15

Climate change is projected to increase hydropower generation in some parts of the world and decrease it in others. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector at the global scale. Regional hydropower projections are developed by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We find that climate-driven changes in hydropower generation may shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies. This then causes significantlymore » altered power sector CO 2 emissions in several hydro-dependent regions, although the net global impact is modest. For drying regions, we estimate a global, cumulative investment need of approximately one trillion dollars (±$500 billion) this century to make up for deteriorated hydropower generation caused by climate change. Total investments avoided are of a similar magnitude across regions projected to experience increased precipitation. Investment risks and opportunities are concentrated in hydro-dependent countries for which significant climate change is expected. Various countries throughout the Balkans, Latin America and Southern Africa are most vulnerable, whilst Norway, Canada, and Bhutan emerge as clear beneficiaries.« less

Validation of a condition-specific measure for women having an abnormal screening mammography.

PubMed

Brodersen, John; Thorsen, Hanne; Kreiner, Svend

2007-01-01

The aim of this study is to assess the validity of a new condition-specific instrument measuring psychosocial consequences of abnormal screening mammography (PCQ-DK33). The draft version of the PCQ-DK33 was completed on two occasions by 184 women who had received an abnormal screening mammography and on one occasion by 240 women who had received a normal screening result. Item Response Theories and Classical Test Theories were used to analyze data. Construct validity, concurrent validity, known group validity, objectivity and reliability were established by item analysis examining the fit between item responses and Rasch models. Six dimensions covering anxiety, behavioral impact, sense of dejection, impact on sleep, breast examination, and sexuality were identified. One item belonging to the dejection dimension had uniform differential item functioning. Two items not fitting the Rasch models were retained because of high face validity. A sick leave item added useful information when measuring side effects and socioeconomic consequences of breast cancer screening. Five "poor items" were identified and should be deleted from the final instrument. Preliminary evidence for a valid and reliable condition-specific measure for women having an abnormal screening mammography was established. The measure includes 27 "good" items measuring different attributes of the same overall latent structure-the psychosocial consequences of abnormal screening mammography.

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.

Climate change is projected to increase hydropower generation in some parts of the world and decrease it in others. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector at the global scale. Regional hydropower projections are developed by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We find that climate-driven changes in hydropower generation may shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies. This then causes significantlymore » altered power sector CO 2 emissions in several hydro-dependent regions, although the net global impact is modest. For drying regions, we estimate a global, cumulative investment need of approximately one trillion dollars (±$500 billion) this century to make up for deteriorated hydropower generation caused by climate change. Total investments avoided are of a similar magnitude across regions projected to experience increased precipitation. Investment risks and opportunities are concentrated in hydro-dependent countries for which significant climate change is expected. Various countries throughout the Balkans, Latin America and Southern Africa are most vulnerable, whilst Norway, Canada, and Bhutan emerge as clear beneficiaries.« less

Identifying high energy density stream-reaches through refined geospatial resolution in hydropower resource assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pasha, M. Fayzul K.; Yang, Majntxov; Yeasmin, Dilruba

Benefited from the rapid development of multiple geospatial data sets on topography, hydrology, and existing energy-water infrastructures, the reconnaissance level hydropower resource assessment can now be conducted using geospatial models in all regions of the US. Furthermore, the updated techniques can be used to estimate the total undeveloped hydropower potential across all regions, and may eventually help identify further hydropower opportunities that were previously overlooked. To enhance the characterization of higher energy density stream-reaches, this paper explored the sensitivity of geospatial resolution on the identification of hydropower stream-reaches using the geospatial merit matrix based hydropower resource assessment (GMM-HRA) model. GMM-HRAmore » model simulation was conducted with eight different spatial resolutions on six U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 8-digit hydrologic units (HUC8) located at three different terrains; Flat, Mild, and Steep. The results showed that more hydropower potential from higher energy density stream-reaches can be identified with increasing spatial resolution. Both Flat and Mild terrains exhibited lower impacts compared to the Steep terrain. Consequently, greater attention should be applied when selecting the discretization resolution for hydropower resource assessments in the future study.« less

Identifying high energy density stream-reaches through refined geospatial resolution in hydropower resource assessment

DOE PAGES

Pasha, M. Fayzul K.; Yang, Majntxov; Yeasmin, Dilruba; ...

2016-01-07

Benefited from the rapid development of multiple geospatial data sets on topography, hydrology, and existing energy-water infrastructures, the reconnaissance level hydropower resource assessment can now be conducted using geospatial models in all regions of the US. Furthermore, the updated techniques can be used to estimate the total undeveloped hydropower potential across all regions, and may eventually help identify further hydropower opportunities that were previously overlooked. To enhance the characterization of higher energy density stream-reaches, this paper explored the sensitivity of geospatial resolution on the identification of hydropower stream-reaches using the geospatial merit matrix based hydropower resource assessment (GMM-HRA) model. GMM-HRAmore » model simulation was conducted with eight different spatial resolutions on six U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 8-digit hydrologic units (HUC8) located at three different terrains; Flat, Mild, and Steep. The results showed that more hydropower potential from higher energy density stream-reaches can be identified with increasing spatial resolution. Both Flat and Mild terrains exhibited lower impacts compared to the Steep terrain. Consequently, greater attention should be applied when selecting the discretization resolution for hydropower resource assessments in the future study.« less

The German-Chinese research collaboration YANGTZE-GEO: Assessing the geo-risks in the Three Gorges Reservoir area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schönbrodt, S.; Behrens, T.; Bieger, K.; Ehret, D.; Frei, M.; Hörmann, G.; Seeber, C.; Schleier, M.; Schmalz, B.; Fohrer, N.; Kaufmann, H.; King, L.; Rohn, J.; Subklew, G.; Xiang, W.

2012-04-01

The river impoundment by The Three Gorges Dam leads to resettlement and land reclamation on steep slopes. As a consequence, ecosystem changes such as soil erosion, mass movements, and diffuse sediment and matter fluxes are widely expected to increase rapidly. In order to assess and analyse those ecosystem changes, the German-Chinese joint research project YANGTZE-GEO was set up in 2008. Within the framework of YANGTZE-GEO five German universities (Tuebingen, Erlangen, Giessen, Kiel, Potsdam) conducted studies on soil erosion, mass movements, diffuse matter inputs, and land use change and vulnerability in close collaboration with Chinese scientists. The Chinese partners and institutions are according to their alphabetic order of hometown the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CRAES; Beijing), the Standing Office of the State Council Three Gorges Project Construction Committee (Beijing), the National Climate Centre (NCC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA; Beijing), the Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing for Land and Resources (AES; Beijing), the Nanjing University, the CAS Institute of Soil Science (Nanjing), the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology at CAS (NIGLAS; Nanjing), the China University of Geosciences (CUG; Wuhan), the CAS Institute of Hydrobiology (Wuhan), and the China Three Gorges University (Yichang). The overall aim of YANGTZE-GEO is the development of a risk assessment and forecasting system to locate high risk areas using GIS-based erosion modelling, data mining tools for terrace condition analysis and landslide recognition, eco-hydrological modelling for diffuse matter inputs, and state-of-the-art remote sensing to assess the landscape's vulnerability. Furthermore, the project aims at the recommendation of sustainable land management systems. YANGTZE-GEO showed the relevance of such research and crucially contributes to the understanding of the dimension and dynamics of the ecological consequences of large dam projects.

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. CIRMIS data system. Volume 3. Generator routines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedrichs, D.R.; Argo, R.S.

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. The various input parameters required in the analysis are compiled in data systems. The data are organized and preparedmore » by various input subroutines for utilization by the hydraulic and transport codes. The hydrologic models simulate the groundwater flow systems and provide water flow directions, rates, and velocities as inputs to the transport models. Outputs from the transport models are basically graphs of radionuclide concentration in the groundwater plotted against time. After dilution in the receiving surface-water body (e.g., lake, river, bay), these data are the input source terms for the dose models, if dose assessments are required. The dose models calculate radiation dose to individuals and populations. CIRMIS (Comprehensive Information Retrieval and Model Input Sequence) Data System, a storage and retrieval system for model input and output data, including graphical interpretation and display is described. This is the third of four volumes of the description of the CIRMIS Data System.« less

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. CIRMIS data system. Volume 1. Initialization, operation, and documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedrichs, D.R.

1980-01-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. The various input parameters required in the analysis are compiled in data systems. The data are organized and preparedmore » by various input subroutines for use by the hydrologic and transport codes. The hydrologic models simulate the groundwater flow systems and provide water flow directions, rates, and velocities as inputs to the transport models. Outputs from the transport models are basically graphs of radionuclide concentration in the groundwater plotted against time. After dilution in the receiving surface-water body (e.g., lake, river, bay), these data are the input source terms for the dose models, if dose assessments are required. The dose models calculate radiation dose to individuals and populations. CIRMIS (Comprehensive Information Retrieval and Model Input Sequence) Data System, a storage and retrieval system for model input and output data, including graphical interpretation and display is described. This is the first of four volumes of the description of the CIRMIS Data System.« less

Description and predictors of positive and negative alcohol-related consequences in the first year of college.

PubMed

Barnett, Nancy P; Clerkin, Elise M; Wood, Mark; Monti, Peter M; O'Leary Tevyaw, Tracy; Corriveau, Donald; Fingeret, Allan; Kahler, Christopher W

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to establish the frequency of positive and negative alcohol-related consequences during the first year of college and to evaluate gender, race/ethnicity, time of year, alcohol use, and intoxication as predictors of consequences using frequent assessments. Participants (N = 1,053; 57.5% female) completed biweekly assessments of alcohol use and positive and negative alcohol-related consequences throughout the year. The majority of drinkers reported both positive and negative consequences. Having a good time and feeling less stressed were the most commonly reported positive consequences. Blackouts and getting physically sick were the most commonly endorsed negative consequences. At the weekly level, number of drinking days, drinks per drinking day, and estimated blood alcohol concentration (eBAC, reflecting intoxication) were significantly related to all consequences after controlling for demographics and time of year. Negative consequences had stronger associations with number of drinks and eBAC than positive consequences did. With each additional drink consumed on a drinking day, the incidence of negative consequences more than doubled (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 2.34, 95% CI [2.19, 2.50]), whereas the incidence of positive consequences increased by about half (IRR = 1.51, 95% CI [1.47, 1.56]). The consequence with the largest gender difference was regretted sex, with women reporting it more often. Few racial/ethnic differences were found in report of negative consequences. Greater positive and negative consequences were endorsed at the beginning of both academic semesters. As number of drinks and eBAC increase, the relative odds of a negative consequence are higher than that of a positive consequence. Alcohol interventions could promote greater awareness of the likelihood of specific consequences and could highlight that positive consequences are associated with lower levels of drinking.

Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thompson, Sandra E.; Whitney, Paul D.; Weimar, Mark R.

2011-09-29

This paper represents the Department of Energy Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development (NA-22) Simulations, Algorithms and Modeling (SAM) Program's first effort to identify and frame analytical methods and tools to aid export control professionals in effectively predicting proliferation intent; a complex, multi-step and multi-agency process. The report focuses on analytical modeling methodologies that alone, or combined, may improve the proliferation export control license approval process. It is a follow-up to an earlier paper describing information sources and environments related to international nuclear technology transfer. This report describes the decision criteria used to evaluate modeling techniques and tools to determinemore » which approaches will be investigated during the final 2 years of the project. The report also details the motivation for why new modeling techniques and tools are needed. The analytical modeling methodologies will enable analysts to evaluate the information environment for relevance to detecting proliferation intent, with specific focus on assessing risks associated with transferring dual-use technologies. Dual-use technologies can be used in both weapons and commercial enterprises. A decision-framework was developed to evaluate which of the different analytical modeling methodologies would be most appropriate conditional on the uniqueness of the approach, data availability, laboratory capabilities, relevance to NA-22 and Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation (NA-24) research needs and the impact if successful. Modeling methodologies were divided into whether they could help micro-level assessments (e.g., help improve individual license assessments) or macro-level assessment. Macro-level assessment focuses on suppliers, technology, consumers, economies, and proliferation context. Macro-level assessment technologies scored higher in the area of uniqueness because less work has been done at the macro level. An approach to developing testable hypotheses for the macro-level assessment methodologies is provided. The outcome of this works suggests that we should develop a Bayes Net for micro-level analysis and continue to focus on Bayes Net, System Dynamics and Economic Input/Output models for assessing macro-level problems. Simultaneously, we need to develop metrics for assessing intent in export control, including the risks and consequences associated with all aspects of export control.« less

Implementation of the NEMO model for estimating the spread of leakage from chemical munitions in the Baltic Sea - the first approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrzejewski, Jan

2017-04-01

After the Second World War, during the Potsdam Conference a decision about demilitarization of Germany was made, and as a consequence, ammunition including chemical warfare agents (CWA) was dumped into the basins of the Baltic Sea. This type of weapon was stored in metal barrels that were under strong influence of electrochemical oxidation, also known as corrosion. Several tens years later, scientists were wondering what consequences for marine ecosystem could a leakage from this weapon bring. Although over 70 years passed since the Second World War, the influence of potential leakage of the CWA has not been properly estimated. Thus, the main goal of this work is to estimate dangerous area caused by potential leakage using the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean model. The NEMO ocean model is developed by the European Consortium including research institutes from France, England and Italy. The first step of this work is to implement the model for the area of the Baltic Sea. It requires generation of horizontal and vertical grid, bathymetry, atmospheric forces and lateral boundary conditions. Implemented model will have to be checked - it means it will have to pass a validation process. The Baltic Sea is one of the best measured sea in the World - as a consequence a lot of data are freely available for researchers. After validation and tuning up the model, implementation of passive tracer is planned. Passive tracer is the prognostic variable that could represent concentration of potential leakage and does not have influence on the density of the model. Based on distribution of the passive tracer, dangerous areas in the locations of dumpsites will be assessed. The research work was funded by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) under the Interreg Baltic Sea Region Programme 2014-2020, project #R013 DAIMON (Decision Aid for Marine Munitions).

[Caregiving consequences in mental disorders--definitions and instruments of assessment].

PubMed

Ciałkowska-Kuźmińska, Magdalena; Kiejna, Andrzej

2010-01-01

Severe mental illnesses have far-reaching consequences for both patients and their relatives. This paper reviews literature on the measures of caregiving consequences. Authors provide a condensed knowledge and research results in the area of caregiving consequences, especially both subjective and objective caregivers' burden. The consequences of care apply to carers' social and leisure activities, financial status, health condition. The burden of care has three fundamental causes: the reorganisation of mental health services, a social isolation of patients and their families and the lack of systemic support for caregivers. The problem of caregiving consequences has been investigated in several studies. In order to identify factors, which have impact on caregiver distress, a variety instruments have been developed. This paper focuses on questionnaires useful for the systematic assessment of both objective and subjective burden: Involvement Evaluation Questionnaire (IEQ), Perceived Family Burden Scale (PFBS), Zarit Caregiver Burden Scale (ZCBS), Experience of Caregiving Inventory (ECI), Family Problems Questionnaire (FPQ). The mentioned instruments proved to be a reliable instrument for measuring caregiver consequences in mental healthcare.

Assessing work disability for social security benefits: international models for the direct assessment of work capacity.

PubMed

Geiger, Ben Baumberg; Garthwaite, Kayleigh; Warren, Jon; Bambra, Clare

2017-08-25

It has been argued that social security disability assessments should directly assess claimants' work capacity, rather than relying on proxies such as on functioning. However, there is little academic discussion of how such assessments could be conducted. The article presents an account of different models of direct disability assessments based on case studies of the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Norway, the United States of America, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, utilising over 150 documents and 40 expert interviews. Three models of direct work disability assessments can be observed: (i) structured assessment, which measures the functional demands of jobs across the national economy and compares these to claimants' functional capacities; (ii) demonstrated assessment, which looks at claimants' actual experiences in the labour market and infers a lack of work capacity from the failure of a concerned rehabilitation attempt; and (iii) expert assessment, based on the judgement of skilled professionals. Direct disability assessment within social security is not just theoretically desirable, but can be implemented in practice. We have shown that there are three distinct ways that this can be done, each with different strengths and weaknesses. Further research is needed to clarify the costs, validity/legitimacy, and consequences of these different models. Implications for rehabilitation It has recently been argued that social security disability assessments should directly assess work capacity rather than simply assessing functioning - but we have no understanding about how this can be done in practice. Based on case studies of nine countries, we show that direct disability assessment can be implemented, and argue that there are three different ways of doing it. These are "demonstrated assessment" (using claimants' experiences in the labour market), "structured assessment" (matching functional requirements to workplace demands), and "expert assessment" (the judgement of skilled professionals). While it is possible to implement a direct assessment of work capacity for social security benefits, further research is necessary to understand how best to maximise validity, legitimacy, and cost-effectiveness.

An assessment of global meteorological droughts based on HAPPI experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie

2017-04-01

Droughts caused water shortages could lead to serious consequences on the socioeconomic and environmental well-being. In the context of changing climate, droughts monitoring, attributions and impact assessments have been performed using observations (e.g., Sun et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2016) and climate model projections (e.g., Liu et al., 2016, 2017); with expectation that such scientific knowledge would feed into long-term adaptation and mitigation plans to tackle potentially unfavorable future drought impacts in a warming world. Inspired by the 2015 Paris Agreement, the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts) experiments were set up to better inform international policymakers about the socioeconomic and environmental impacts under less severe global warming conditions. This study aims to understand the potential shift in meteorological droughts from the past into the future on a global scale. Based on the HAPPI data, we evaluate the change in drought related indices (i.e., PET/P, PDSI) from the past to the future scenarios (1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius warming). Here we present some early results (MIROC5 as demonstration) on identified hotspots and discuss the differences in severity of droughts between these warming worlds and associated consequences. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1 Liu W, and Sun F, 2016. Assessing estimates of evaporative demand in climate models using observed pan evaporation over China. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere 121, 8329-8349 Zhang J, Sun F, Xu J, Chen Y, Sang Y, -F, and Liu C, 2016. Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 206-213 Sun F, Roderick M, Farquhar G, 2012. Changes in the variability of global land precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters 39, L19402

Energy production, distribution, and pollution controls: Combining engineering and economic analysis to enhance efficiency and policy design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkis, David F.

Three published articles are presented which focus on enhancing various aspects of the energy supply chain. While each paper adopts a different methodology, all three combine engineering data and/or techniques with economic analysis to improve efficiency or policy design within energy markets. The first paper combines a chemical engineering plant design model with an economic assessment of product enhancements within an ethanol production facility. While a new chemical process is shown to achieve greater ethanol yields, the animal feed by-products are denatured and decrease in value due to the degradation of a key nutritional amino acid. Overall, yield increases outweigh any costs, providing additional value to firms adopting this process. The second paper uses a mixed integer linear model to assess the optimal location of cellulosic ethanol production facilities within the state of Indiana. Desired locations with low costs are linked to regions with high yield corn growth, as these areas provide an abundance of corn stover, a by-product of corn and a cellulosic source of ethanol. The third paper implements experimental economic methods to assess the effectiveness of policies intended to control prices in emissions permit markets. When utilizing reserve permit auctions as an alternative to setting explicit maximum prices, prices are elevated beyond the theoretical predictions of the model within the conditions of the experiment. The most likely cause of higher prices is the negotiating power provided to sellers by grandfathering permits as evidenced by higher than expected welfare gains to sellers. Before presenting the articles, a discussion is introduced regarding the role of assumptions used by economists. For each article, a key assumption is highlighted and the consequences of making a different assumption are provided. Whether the consequences are large or small, the benefits of elucidating our models with assumptions based on real world behaviors are clearly demonstrated.

Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter-model uncertainties for extreme sea-levels at large spatial scales and compare them to the uncertainties in mean sea level projections.

Robust Emergent Climate Phenomena Associated with the High-Sensitivity Tail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boslough, M.; Levy, M.; Backus, G.

2010-12-01

Because the potential effects of climate change are more severe than had previously been thought, increasing focus on uncertainty quantification is required for risk assessment needed by policy makers. Current scientific efforts focus almost exclusively on establishing best estimates of future climate change. However, the greatest consequences occur in the extreme tail of the probability density functions for climate sensitivity (the “high-sensitivity tail”). To this end, we are exploring the impacts of newly postulated, highly uncertain, but high-consequence physical mechanisms to better establish the climate change risk. We define consequence in terms of dramatic change in physical conditions and in the resulting socioeconomic impact (hence, risk) on populations. Although we are developing generally applicable risk assessment methods, we have focused our initial efforts on uncertainty and risk analyses for the Arctic region. Instead of focusing on best estimates, requiring many years of model parameterization development and evaluation, we are focusing on robust emergent phenomena (those that are not necessarily intuitive and are insensitive to assumptions, subgrid-parameterizations, and tunings). For many physical systems, under-resolved models fail to generate such phenomena, which only develop when model resolution is sufficiently high. Our ultimate goal is to discover the patterns of emergent climate precursors (those that cannot be predicted with lower-resolution models) that can be used as a "sensitivity fingerprint" and make recommendations for a climate early warning system that would use satellites and sensor arrays to look for the various predicted high-sensitivity signatures. Our initial simulations are focused on the Arctic region, where underpredicted phenomena such as rapid loss of sea ice are already emerging, and because of major geopolitical implications associated with increasing Arctic accessibility to natural resources, shipping routes, and strategic locations. We anticipate that regional climate will be strongly influenced by feedbacks associated with a seasonally ice-free Arctic, but with unknown emergent phenomena. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Knowledge base about earthquakes as a tool to minimize strong events consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, Nina; Bonnin, Jean; Larionov, Valery; Ugarov, Alexander; Kijko, Andrzej

2017-04-01

The paper describes the structure and content of the knowledge base on physical and socio-economical consequences of damaging earthquakes, which may be used for calibration of near real-time loss assessment systems based on simulation models for shaking intensity, damage to buildings and casualties estimates. Such calibration allows to compensate some factors which influence on reliability of expected damage and loss assessment in "emergency" mode. The knowledge base contains the description of past earthquakes' consequences for the area under study. It also includes the current distribution of built environment and population at the time of event occurrence. Computer simulation of the recorded in knowledge base events allow to determine the sets of regional calibration coefficients, including rating of seismological surveys, peculiarities of shaking intensity attenuation and changes in building stock and population distribution, in order to provide minimum error of damaging earthquakes loss estimations in "emergency" mode. References 1. Larionov, V., Frolova, N: Peculiarities of seismic vulnerability estimations. In: Natural Hazards in Russia, volume 6: Natural Risks Assessment and Management, Publishing House "Kruk", Moscow, 120-131, 2003. 2. Frolova, N., Larionov, V., Bonnin, J.: Data Bases Used In Worlwide Systems For Earthquake Loss Estimation In Emergency Mode: Wenchuan Earthquake. In Proc. TIEMS2010 Conference, Beijing, China, 2010. 3. Frolova N. I., Larionov V. I., Bonnin J., Sushchev S. P., Ugarov A. N., Kozlov M. A. Loss Caused by Earthquakes: Rapid Estimates. Natural Hazards Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol.84, ISSN 0921-030, Nat Hazards DOI 10.1007/s11069-016-2653

Assessing Stress Responses in Beaked and Sperm Whales in the Bahamas

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

consequences for individual or population health (NRC 2005). Therefore, developing methods to better understand the sub-lethal, physiologic consequences...used to assess physiologic responses in beaked whales in environments with elevated acoustic exposures from naval activities. RELATED PROJECTS...Stress Assessment in Baleen Whales (K. Hunt, PI; ONR #N000141310639). This research project is developing the use of fecal aldosterone assays as an

Radiation Measurements Performed with Active Detectors Relevant for Human Space Exploration

PubMed Central

Narici, Livio; Berger, Thomas; Matthiä, Daniel; Reitz, Günther

2015-01-01

A reliable radiation risk assessment in space is a mandatory step for the development of countermeasures and long-duration mission planning in human spaceflight. Research in radiobiology provides information about possible risks linked to radiation. In addition, for a meaningful risk evaluation, the radiation exposure has to be assessed to a sufficient level of accuracy. Consequently, both the radiation models predicting the risks and the measurements used to validate such models must have an equivalent precision. Corresponding measurements can be performed both with passive and active devices. The former is easier to handle, cheaper, lighter, and smaller but they measure neither the time dependence of the radiation environment nor some of the details useful for a comprehensive radiation risk assessment. Active detectors provide most of these details and have been extensively used in the International Space Station. To easily access such an amount of data, a single point access is becoming essential. This review presents an ongoing work on the development of a tool that allows obtaining information about all relevant measurements performed with active detectors providing reliable inputs for radiation model validation. PMID:26697408

Radiation Measurements Performed with Active Detectors Relevant for Human Space Exploration.

PubMed

Narici, Livio; Berger, Thomas; Matthiä, Daniel; Reitz, Günther

2015-01-01

A reliable radiation risk assessment in space is a mandatory step for the development of countermeasures and long-duration mission planning in human spaceflight. Research in radiobiology provides information about possible risks linked to radiation. In addition, for a meaningful risk evaluation, the radiation exposure has to be assessed to a sufficient level of accuracy. Consequently, both the radiation models predicting the risks and the measurements used to validate such models must have an equivalent precision. Corresponding measurements can be performed both with passive and active devices. The former is easier to handle, cheaper, lighter, and smaller but they measure neither the time dependence of the radiation environment nor some of the details useful for a comprehensive radiation risk assessment. Active detectors provide most of these details and have been extensively used in the International Space Station. To easily access such an amount of data, a single point access is becoming essential. This review presents an ongoing work on the development of a tool that allows obtaining information about all relevant measurements performed with active detectors providing reliable inputs for radiation model validation.

Assessing Exposure and Health Consequences of Chemicals in Drinking Water: Current State of Knowledge and Research Needs

PubMed Central

Kogevinas, Manolis; Cordier, Sylvaine; Templeton, Michael R.; Vermeulen, Roel; Nuckols, John R.; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.; Levallois, Patrick

2014-01-01

Background: Safe drinking water is essential for well-being. Although microbiological contamination remains the largest cause of water-related morbidity and mortality globally, chemicals in water supplies may also cause disease, and evidence of the human health consequences is limited or lacking for many of them. Objectives: We aimed to summarize the state of knowledge, identify gaps in understanding, and provide recommendations for epidemiological research relating to chemicals occurring in drinking water. Discussion: Assessing exposure and the health consequences of chemicals in drinking water is challenging. Exposures are typically at low concentrations, measurements in water are frequently insufficient, chemicals are present in mixtures, exposure periods are usually long, multiple exposure routes may be involved, and valid biomarkers reflecting the relevant exposure period are scarce. In addition, the magnitude of the relative risks tends to be small. Conclusions: Research should include well-designed epidemiological studies covering regions with contrasting contaminant levels and sufficient sample size; comprehensive evaluation of contaminant occurrence in combination with bioassays integrating the effect of complex mixtures; sufficient numbers of measurements in water to evaluate geographical and temporal variability; detailed information on personal habits resulting in exposure (e.g., ingestion, showering, swimming, diet); collection of biological samples to measure relevant biomarkers; and advanced statistical models to estimate exposure and relative risks, considering methods to address measurement error. Last, the incorporation of molecular markers of early biological effects and genetic susceptibility is essential to understand the mechanisms of action. There is a particular knowledge gap and need to evaluate human exposure and the risks of a wide range of emerging contaminants. Citation: Villanueva CM, Kogevinas M, Cordier S, Templeton MR, Vermeulen R, Nuckols JR, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Levallois P. 2014. Assessing exposure and health consequences of chemicals in drinking water: current state of knowledge and research needs. Environ Health Perspect 122:213–221; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206229 PMID:24380896

The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth

Treesearch

Kevin Ford; Joshua H. Ness; Judith L. Bronstein; William F. Morris

2015-01-01

The impact of mutualists on a partner’s demography depends on how they affect the partner’s multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and...

Modeling the ductile fracture and the plastic anisotropy of DC01 steel at room temperature and low strain rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuninetti, V.; Yuan, S.; Gilles, G.; Guzmán, C. F.; Habraken, A. M.; Duchêne, L.

2016-08-01

This paper presents different extensions of the classical GTN damage model implemented in a finite element code. The goal of this study is to assess these extensions for the numerical prediction of failure of a DC01 steel sheet during a single point incremental forming process, after a proper identification of the material parameters. It is shown that the prediction of failure appears too early compared to experimental results. Though, the use of the Thomason criterion permitted to delay the onset of coalescence and consequently the final failure.

Neuroethics vs neurophysiologically and neuropsychologically uninformed influences in child-rearing, education, emerging hunter-gatherers, and artificial intelligence models of the brain.

PubMed

Pontius, A A

1993-04-01

Potentially negative long-term consequences in four areas are emphasized, if specific neuromaturational, neurophysiological, and neuropsychological facts within a neurodevelopmental and ecological context are neglected in normal functional levels of child development and maturational lag of the frontal lobe system in "Attention Deficit Disorder," in education (reading/writing and arithmetic), in assessment of cognitive functioning in hunter-gatherer populations, specifically modified in the service of their survival, and in constructing computer models of the brain, neglecting consciousness and intentionality as criticized recently by Searle.

Human exposure and internal dose assessments of acrylamide in food.

PubMed

Dybing, E; Farmer, P B; Andersen, M; Fennell, T R; Lalljie, S P D; Müller, D J G; Olin, S; Petersen, B J; Schlatter, J; Scholz, G; Scimeca, J A; Slimani, N; Törnqvist, M; Tuijtelaars, S; Verger, P

2005-03-01

This review provides a framework contributing to the risk assessment of acrylamide in food. It is based on the outcome of the ILSI Europe FOSIE process, a risk assessment framework for chemicals in foods and adds to the overall framework by focusing especially on exposure assessment and internal dose assessment of acrylamide in food. Since the finding that acrylamide is formed in food during heat processing and preparation of food, much effort has been (and still is being) put into understanding its mechanism of formation, on developing analytical methods and determination of levels in food, and on evaluation of its toxicity and potential toxicity and potential human health consequences. Although several exposure estimations have been proposed, a systematic review of key information relevant to exposure assessment is currently lacking. The European and North American branches of the International Life Sciences Institute, ILSI, discussed critical aspects of exposure assessment, parameters influencing the outcome of exposure assessment and summarised data relevant to the acrylamide exposure assessment to aid the risk characterisation process. This paper reviews the data on acrylamide levels in food including its formation and analytical methods, the determination of human consumption patterns, dietary intake of the general population, estimation of maximum intake levels and identification of groups of potentially high intakes. Possible options and consequences of mitigation efforts to reduce exposure are discussed. Furthermore the association of intake levels with biomarkers of exposure and internal dose, considering aspects of bioavailability, is reviewed, and a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) model is described that provides a good description of the kinetics of acrylamide in the rat. Each of the sections concludes with a summary of remaining gaps and uncertainties.

Methodology for assessing the safety of Hydrogen Systems: HyRAM 1.1 technical reference manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina; Hecht, Ethan; Reynolds, John Thomas

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM is envisioned as a unifying platform combining validated, analytical models of hydrogen behavior, a stan- dardized, transparent QRA approach, and engineering models and generic data for hydrogen installations. HyRAM is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U. S. De- partment of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety andmore » to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in the HyRAM version 1.1. HyRAM 1.1 includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment fail- ures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and computa- tionally and experimentally validated analytical and first order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM 1.1 integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is a prototype software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals.« less

Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

PubMed

Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

2016-08-01

Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

A dynamic approach for the impact of a toxic gas dispersion hazard considering human behaviour and dispersion modelling.

PubMed

Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Ronchi, Enrico; Maragkos, Georgios; Beji, Tarek; Merci, Bart

2016-11-15

The release of toxic gases due to natural/industrial accidents or terrorist attacks in populated areas can have tragic consequences. To prevent and evaluate the effects of these disasters different approaches and modelling tools have been introduced in the literature. These instruments are valuable tools for risk managers doing risk assessment of threatened areas. Despite the significant improvements in hazard assessment in case of toxic gas dispersion, these analyses do not generally include the impact of human behaviour and people movement during emergencies. This work aims at providing an approach which considers both modelling of gas dispersion and evacuation movement in order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment for disasters involving toxic gases. The approach is applied to a hypothetical scenario including a ship releasing Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on a crowd attending a music festival. The difference between the results obtained with existing static methods (people do not move) and a dynamic approach (people move away from the danger) which considers people movement with different degrees of sophistication (either a simple linear path or more complex behavioural modelling) is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking masculinity to negative drinking consequences: the mediating roles of heavy episodic drinking and alcohol expectancies.

PubMed

Wells, Samantha; Flynn, Andrea; Tremblay, Paul F; Dumas, Tara; Miller, Peter; Graham, Kathryn

2014-05-01

This study extends previous research on masculinity and negative drinking consequences among young men by considering mediating effects of heavy episodic drinking (HED) and alcohol expectancies. We hypothesized that masculinity would have a direct relationship with negative consequences from drinking as well as indirect relationships mediated by HED and alcohol expectancies of courage, risk, and aggression. A random sample of 1,436 college and university men ages 19-25 years completed an online survey, including conformity to masculine norms, alcohol-related expectancies, HED, and negative drinking consequences. Regression analyses and structural equation modeling were used. Six of seven dimensions of masculinity and the alcohol expectancy scales were significantly associated with both HED and negative consequences. In multivariate regression models predicting HED and negative consequences, the playboy and violence dimensions of masculinity and the risk/aggression alcohol expectancy remained significant. HED and the risk-taking dimension of masculinity were also significant in the model predicting negative consequences. The structural equation model indicated that masculinity was directly associated with HED and negative consequences but also influenced negative consequences indirectly through HED and alcohol expectancies. The findings suggest that, among young adult male college and university students, masculinity is an important factor related to both HED and drinking consequences, with the latter effect partly mediated by HED and alcohol expectancies. Addressing male norms about masculinity may help to reduce HED and negative consequences from drinking.

Bringing Consequences and Side Effects of Testing and Assessment to the Foreground

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zumbo, Bruno D.; Hubley, Anita M.

2016-01-01

Ultimately, measures in research, testing, assessment and evaluation are used, or have implications, for ranking, intervention, feedback, decision-making or policy purposes. Explicit recognition of this fact brings the often-ignored and sometimes maligned concept of consequences to the fore. Given that measures have personal and social…

Looking Ahead: The Consequences of a Society with Less Cash/Less Checks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MOSAIC, 1976

1976-01-01

This technological assessment, conducted by the Arthur D. Little organization, studied the technology of electronic funds transfer. Technology assessment analyzes the economic, social, environmental, and institutional consequences of the introduction or expansion of a technology into society and alerts decision makers to the possible future…

Integrating Urban Infrastructure and Health System Impact Modeling for Disasters and Mass-Casualty Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbus, J. M.; Kirsch, T.; Mitrani-Reiser, J.

2017-12-01

Over recent decades, natural disasters and mass-casualty events in United States have repeatedly revealed the serious consequences of health care facility vulnerability and the subsequent ability to deliver care for the affected people. Advances in predictive modeling and vulnerability assessment for health care facility failure, integrated infrastructure, and extreme weather events have now enabled a more rigorous scientific approach to evaluating health care system vulnerability and assessing impacts of natural and human disasters as well as the value of specific interventions. Concurrent advances in computing capacity also allow, for the first time, full integration of these multiple individual models, along with the modeling of population behaviors and mass casualty responses during a disaster. A team of federal and academic investigators led by the National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health (NCDMPH) is develoing a platform for integrating extreme event forecasts, health risk/impact assessment and population simulations, critical infrastructure (electrical, water, transportation, communication) impact and response models, health care facility-specific vulnerability and failure assessments, and health system/patient flow responses. The integration of these models is intended to develop much greater understanding of critical tipping points in the vulnerability of health systems during natural and human disasters and build an evidence base for specific interventions. Development of such a modeling platform will greatly facilitate the assessment of potential concurrent or sequential catastrophic events, such as a terrorism act following a severe heat wave or hurricane. This presentation will highlight the development of this modeling platform as well as applications not just for the US health system, but also for international science-based disaster risk reduction efforts, such as the Sendai Framework and the WHO SMART hospital project.

Warning systems in risk management.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M E

1986-06-01

A method is presented here that allows probabilistic evaluation and optimization of warning systems, and comparison of their performance and cost-effectiveness with those of other means of risk management. The model includes an assessment of the signals, and of human response, given the memory that people have kept of the quality of previous alerts. The trade-off between the rate of false alerts and the length of the lead time is studied to account for the long-term effects of "crying wolf" and the effectiveness of emergency actions. An explicit formulation of the system's benefits, including inputs from a signal model, a response model, and a consequence model, is given to allow optimization of the warning threshold and of the system's sensitivity.

Risk Assessment on Constructors during Over-water Riprap Based on Entropy Weight and FAHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tongqing; Li, Liang; Liang, Zelong; Mao, Tian; Shao, Weifeng

2017-07-01

Being aimed at waterway regulation engineering, there exist risks of over-water riprap for constructors which keeps uncertainty and complexity. For the purpose of evaluating the possibility and consequence, this paper utilizes fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with abbreviation of FAHP to do empowerment on the related risk indicators, constructs FAHP under entropy weight and establishes relevant evaluation factor set and evaluation language for constructors during over-water riprap construction process. Through doing risk probability estimation and risk consequence size evaluation on the factor of constructors, this paper introduces this model into risk analysis on constructors during over-water riprap of Ching River waterway regulation project. Results show that evaluation of this method is so credible that it could be utilized in practical engineering.

Gravity Reception and Cardiac Function in the Spider

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finck, A.

1985-01-01

The following features of the arachnid gravity system were studied. (1) the absolute threshold to hyper-gz is quite low indicating fine proprioreceptive properties of the lyriform organ, the Gz/vibration detector; (2) the neurogenic heart of the spider is a good dependent variable for assessing its behavior to Gz and other stimuli which produce mechanical effects on the exoskeleton; (3) Not only is the cardiac response useful but it is now understood to be an integral part of the system which compensates for the consequences of gravity in the spider (an hydraulic leg extension); and (4) a theoretical model was proposed in which a mechanical amplifier, the leg lever, converts a weak force (at the tarsus) to a strong force (at the patella), capable of compressing the exoskeleton and consequently the lyriform receptor.

Development and validation of a physiology-based model for the prediction of pharmacokinetics/toxicokinetics in rabbits

PubMed Central

Hermes, Helen E.; Teutonico, Donato; Preuss, Thomas G.; Schneckener, Sebastian

2018-01-01

The environmental fates of pharmaceuticals and the effects of crop protection products on non-target species are subjects that are undergoing intense review. Since measuring the concentrations and effects of xenobiotics on all affected species under all conceivable scenarios is not feasible, standard laboratory animals such as rabbits are tested, and the observed adverse effects are translated to focal species for environmental risk assessments. In that respect, mathematical modelling is becoming increasingly important for evaluating the consequences of pesticides in untested scenarios. In particular, physiologically based pharmacokinetic/toxicokinetic (PBPK/TK) modelling is a well-established methodology used to predict tissue concentrations based on the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion of drugs and toxicants. In the present work, a rabbit PBPK/TK model is developed and evaluated with data available from the literature. The model predictions include scenarios of both intravenous (i.v.) and oral (p.o.) administration of small and large compounds. The presented rabbit PBPK/TK model predicts the pharmacokinetics (Cmax, AUC) of the tested compounds with an average 1.7-fold error. This result indicates a good predictive capacity of the model, which enables its use for risk assessment modelling and simulations. PMID:29561908

Evaluating the Impact of Intimate Partner Violence on the Perpetrator: The Perceived Consequences of Domestic Violence Questionnaire

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Denise D.; Neighbors, Clayton; Mbilinyi, Lyungai F.; O'Rourke, Allison; Zegree, Joan; Roffman, Roger A.; Edleson, Jeffrey L.

2010-01-01

Surprisingly, little is known about how IPV perpetrators perceive the consequences of their violent behavior. This article describes the development and evaluation of the Perceived Consequences of Domestic Violence Questionnaire (PCDVQ). The PCDVQ is a 27 item self report instrument designed to assess the consequences of intimate partner violence…

Uncertainty quantification's role in modeling and simulation planning, and credibility assessment through the predictive capability maturity model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rider, William J.; Witkowski, Walter R.; Mousseau, Vincent Andrew

2016-04-13

The importance of credible, trustworthy numerical simulations is obvious especially when using the results for making high-consequence decisions. Determining the credibility of such numerical predictions is much more difficult and requires a systematic approach to assessing predictive capability, associated uncertainties and overall confidence in the computational simulation process for the intended use of the model. This process begins with an evaluation of the computational modeling of the identified, important physics of the simulation for its intended use. This is commonly done through a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT). Then an assessment of the evidence basis supporting the ability to computationallymore » simulate these physics can be performed using various frameworks such as the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM). There were several critical activities that follow in the areas of code and solution verification, validation and uncertainty quantification, which will be described in detail in the following sections. Here, we introduce the subject matter for general applications but specifics are given for the failure prediction project. In addition, the first task that must be completed in the verification & validation procedure is to perform a credibility assessment to fully understand the requirements and limitations of the current computational simulation capability for the specific application intended use. The PIRT and PCMM are tools used at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to provide a consistent manner to perform such an assessment. Ideally, all stakeholders should be represented and contribute to perform an accurate credibility assessment. PIRTs and PCMMs are both described in brief detail below and the resulting assessments for an example project are given.« less

Towards Application of NASA Standard for Models and Simulations in Aeronautical Design Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Luc; Dunyach, Jean-Claude; Huet, Sandrine; Pelissier, Guillaume; Merlet, Joseph

2012-08-01

Even powerful computational techniques like simulation endure limitations in their validity domain. Consequently using simulation models requires cautions to avoid making biased design decisions for new aeronautical products on the basis of inadequate simulation results. Thus the fidelity, accuracy and validity of simulation models shall be monitored in context all along the design phases to build confidence in achievement of the goals of modelling and simulation.In the CRESCENDO project, we adapt the Credibility Assessment Scale method from NASA standard for models and simulations from space programme to the aircraft design in order to assess the quality of simulations. The proposed eight quality assurance metrics aggregate information to indicate the levels of confidence in results. They are displayed in management dashboard and can secure design trade-off decisions at programme milestones.The application of this technique is illustrated in aircraft design context with specific thermal Finite Elements Analysis. This use case shows how to judge the fitness- for-purpose of simulation as Virtual testing means and then green-light the continuation of Simulation Lifecycle Management (SLM) process.

[Radio-ecological and hygienic assessment of consequences of forest fires in the areas polluted during the Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Kashparov, V A; Lundin, S M; Kadygrib, A M; Protsak, V P; Levchuk, S E; Ioshchenko, V I; Kashpur, V A; Talerko, N N

2001-01-01

Retransfer of radionuclides on the condensation trails of Chernobyl radioactive fallouts during forest fires has been experimentally evaluated and their mathematical transfer model verified. It has been shown that radionuclide retransfer will make no great impact on additional pollution of an area even under the most unfavourable conditions. The contribution of convective and non-convective components of transfer to the formation of a radioactive aerosol concentration field has been assessed. Time course of changes in the concentration of radioactive aerosol and its dispersive composition are shown in different phases of fire and at different distance from its source.

Psychological and behavioral consequences of job loss: a covariance structure analysis using Weiner's (1985) attribution model.

PubMed

Prussia, G E; Kinicki, A J; Bracker, J S

1993-06-01

B. Weiner's (1985) attribution model of achievement motivation and emotion was used as a theoretical foundation to examine the mediating processes between involuntary job loss and employment status. Seventy-nine manufacturing employees were surveyed 1 month prior to permanent displacement, and finding another job was assessed 18 months later. Covariance structure analysis was used to evaluate goodness of fit and to compare the model to alternative measurement and structural representations. Discriminant validity analyses indicated that the causal dimensions underlying the model were not independent. Model predictions were supported in that internal and stable attributions for job loss negatively influenced finding another job through expectations for re-employment. These predictions held up even after controlling for influential unmeasured variables. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.

Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

2012-12-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

Methodologies for assessing the use-phase power consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of telecommunications network services.

PubMed

Chan, Chien A; Gygax, André F; Wong, Elaine; Leckie, Christopher A; Nirmalathas, Ampalavanapillai; Kilper, Daniel C

2013-01-02

Internet traffic has grown rapidly in recent years and is expected to continue to expand significantly over the next decade. Consequently, the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of telecommunications service-supporting infrastructures have become an important issue. In this study, we develop a set of models for assessing the use-phase power consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of telecom network services to help telecom providers gain a better understanding of the GHG emissions associated with the energy required for their networks and services. Due to the fact that measuring the power consumption and traffic in a telecom network is a challenging task, these models utilize different granularities of available network information. As the granularity of the network measurement information decreases, the corresponding models have the potential to produce larger estimation errors. Therefore, we examine the accuracy of these models under various network scenarios using two approaches: (i) a sensitivity analysis through simulations and (ii) a case study of a deployed network. Both approaches show that the accuracy of the models depends on the network size, the total amount of network service traffic (i.e., for the service under assessment), and the number of network nodes used to process the service.

Modeling good research practices--overview: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-1.

PubMed

Caro, J Jaime; Briggs, Andrew H; Siebert, Uwe; Kuntz, Karen M

2012-01-01

Models-mathematical frameworks that facilitate estimation of the consequences of health care decisions-have become essential tools for health technology assessment. Evolution of the methods since the first ISPOR modeling task force reported in 2003 has led to a new task force, jointly convened with the Society for Medical Decision Making, and this series of seven papers presents the updated recommendations for best practices in conceptualizing models; implementing state-transition approaches, discrete event simulations, or dynamic transmission models; dealing with uncertainty; and validating and reporting models transparently. This overview introduces the work of the task force, provides all the recommendations, and discusses some quandaries that require further elucidation. The audience for these papers includes those who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and, indeed, anyone concerned with the use of models to support decision making.

Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henze, Daven K.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Akhtar, Farhan; Spurr, Robert J. D.; Pinder, Robert W.; Loughlin, Dan; Kopacz, Monika; Singh, Kumaresh; Shim, Changsub

2012-01-01

Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary to assess realistic policy options. To address this challenge, here we show how adjoint model sensitivities can be used to provide highly spatially resolved estimates of the DRF from emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ammonia (NH3), using the example of emissions from each sector and country following multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). The radiative forcing efficiencies of many individual emissions are found to differ considerably from regional or sectoral averages for NH3, SO2 from the power sector, and BC from domestic, industrial, transportation and biomass burning sources. Consequently, the amount of emissions controls required to attain a specific DRF varies at intracontinental scales by up to a factor of 4. These results thus demonstrate both a need and means for incorporating spatially refined aerosol DRF into analysis of future emissions scenario and design of air quality and climate change mitigation policies.

Psychosocial approaches to dual diagnosis.

PubMed

Drake, R E; Mueser, K T

2000-01-01

Recent research elucidates many aspects of the problem of co-occurring substance use disorder (SUD) in patients with severe mental illness, which is often termed dual diagnosis. This paper provides a brief overview of current research on the epidemiology, adverse consequences, and phenomenology of dual diagnosis, followed by a more extensive review of current approaches to services, assessment, and treatment. Accumulating evidence shows that comorbid SUD is quite common among individuals with severe mental illness and that these individuals suffer serious adverse consequences of SUD. The research further suggests that traditional, separate services for individuals with dual disorders are ineffective, and that integrated treatment programs, which combine mental health and substance abuse interventions, offer more promise. In addition to a comprehensive integration of services, successful programs include assessment, assertive case management, motivational interventions for patients who do not recognize the need for substance abuse treatment, behavioral interventions for those who are trying to attain or maintain abstinence, family interventions, housing, rehabilitation, and psychopharmacology. Further research is needed on the organization and financing of dual-diagnosis services and on specific components of the integrated treatment model, such as group treatments, family interventions, and housing approaches.

On the use of drawing tasks in neuropsychological assessment.

PubMed

Smith, Alastair D

2009-03-01

Drawing tasks have attained a central position in neuropsychological assessment and are considered a rich source of information about the presence (or absence) of cognitive and perceptuo-motor abilities. However, unlike other tests of cognitive impairment, drawing tasks are often administered without reference to normative models of graphic production, and their results are often analyzed qualitatively. I begin this article by delineating the different ways in which drawing errors have been used to indicate particular functional deficits in neurological patients. I then describe models of drawing that have been explicitly based on the errors observed in patient drawings. Finally, the case is made for developing a more sensitive set of metrics in order to quantitatively assess patient performance. By providing a finer grain of analysis to assessment we will not only be better able to characterize the consequences of cognitive dysfunction, but may also be able to more subtly characterize and dissociate patients who would otherwise have been placed in the same broad category of impairment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

A GIS-based approach for the screening assessment of noise and vibration impacts from transit projects.

PubMed

Hamed, Maged; Effat, Waleed

2007-08-01

Urban transportation projects are essential in increasing the efficiency of moving people and goods within a city, and between cities. Environmental impacts from such projects must be evaluated and mitigated, as applicable. Spatial modeling is a valuable tool for quantifying the potential level of environmental consequences within the context of an environmental impact assessment (EIA) study. This paper presents a GIS-based tool for the assessment of airborne-noise and ground-borne vibration from public transit systems, and its application to an actual project. The tool is based on the US Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) approach, and incorporates spatial information, satellite imaging, geostatistical modeling, and software programming. The tool is applied on a case study of initial environmental evaluation of a light rail transit project in an urban city in the Middle East, to evaluate alternative layouts. The tool readily allowed the alternative evaluation and the results were used as input to a multi-criteria analytic framework.

Environmental compatibility of closed landfills - assessing future pollution hazards.

PubMed

Laner, David; Fellner, Johann; Brunner, Paul H

2011-01-01

Municipal solid waste landfills need to be managed after closure. This so-called aftercare comprises the treatment and monitoring of residual emissions as well as the maintenance and control of landfill elements. The measures can be terminated when a landfill does not pose a threat to the environment any more. Consequently, the evaluation of landfill environmental compatibility includes an estimation of future pollution hazards as well as an assessment of the vulnerability of the affected environment. An approach to assess future emission rates is presented and discussed in view of long-term environmental compatibility. The suggested method consists (a) of a continuous model to predict emissions under the assumption of constant landfill conditions, and (b) different scenarios to evaluate the effects of changing conditions within and around the landfill. The model takes into account the actual status of the landfill, hence different methods to gain information about landfill characteristics have to be applied. Finally, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of the methodology are discussed, and the need for future research is outlined.

A systems approach to the policy-level risk assessment of exotic animal diseases: network model and application to classical swine fever.

PubMed

Delgado, João; Pollard, Simon; Snary, Emma; Black, Edgar; Prpich, George; Longhurst, Phil

2013-08-01

Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy-level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessing the consequences of nonnative trout in headwater ecosystems in western North America

Treesearch

Jason B. Dunham; David S. Pilliod; Michael K. Young

2004-01-01

Intentional introductions of nonnative trout into headwater lakes and streams can have numerous effects on the receiving ecosystems, potentially threatening native species and disrupting key ecological processes. In this perspective, we focus on seven key issues for assessing the biological and economic consequences of nonnative trout in headwater ecosystems: (1)...

Policy Issues in Computer Education. Assessing the Cognitive Consequences of Computer Environments for Learning (ACCCEL).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linn, Marcia

This paper analyzes the capabilities of the computer learning environment identified by the Assessing the Cognitive Consequences of Computer Environments for Learning (ACCCEL) Project, augments the analysis with experimental work, and discusses how schools can implement policies which provide for the maximum potential of computers. The ACCCEL…

How can land-use modelling tools inform bioenergy policies?

PubMed Central

Davis, Sarah C.; House, Joanna I.; Diaz-Chavez, Rocio A.; Molnar, Andras; Valin, Hugo; DeLucia, Evan H.

2011-01-01

Targets for bioenergy have been set worldwide to mitigate climate change. Although feedstock sources are often ambiguous, pledges in European nations, the United States and Brazil amount to more than 100 Mtoe of biorenewable fuel production by 2020. As a consequence, the biofuel sector is developing rapidly, and it is increasingly important to distinguish bioenergy options that can address energy security and greenhouse gas mitigation from those that cannot. This paper evaluates how bioenergy production affects land-use change (LUC), and to what extent land-use modelling can inform sound decision-making. We identified local and global internalities and externalities of biofuel development scenarios, reviewed relevant data sources and modelling approaches, identified sources of controversy about indirect LUC (iLUC) and then suggested a framework for comprehensive assessments of bioenergy. Ultimately, plant biomass must be managed to produce energy in a way that is consistent with the management of food, feed, fibre, timber and environmental services. Bioenergy production provides opportunities for improved energy security, climate mitigation and rural development, but the environmental and social consequences depend on feedstock choices and geographical location. The most desirable solutions for bioenergy production will include policies that incentivize regionally integrated management of diverse resources with low inputs, high yields, co-products, multiple benefits and minimal risks of iLUC. Many integrated assessment models include energy resources, trade, technological development and regional environmental conditions, but do not account for biodiversity and lack detailed data on the location of degraded and underproductive lands that would be ideal for bioenergy production. Specific practices that would maximize the benefits of bioenergy production regionally need to be identified before a global analysis of bioenergy-related LUC can be accomplished. PMID:22482028

Burden of stroke in Italy: an economic model highlights savings arising from reduced disability following thrombolysis.

PubMed

Chiumente, M; Gianino, M M; Minniti, D; Mattei, T J; Spass, B; Kamal, K M; Zimmerman, D E; Muca, A; Luda, E

2015-08-01

The consequences of stroke must be assessed not only in terms of incidence and mortality rates, but also in terms of disability, which may persist long after the acute phase. Thrombolysis, if timely administered, can effectively reduce post-stroke disability. The economic model presented herein aims to evaluate, in eligible patients, the effects of alteplase on post-stroke disability and related costs over three-years. The economic analysis was developed on the basis of four key components: clinical outcomes from international trials, economic consequences extracted from cost of illness studies, regulatory data from national and international agencies, and national epidemiological data. A population-level model estimated the difference in disability costs between patients treated with standard care versus those receiving thrombolytic therapy within 4×5 h of acute ischemic stroke. The analysis covered 36 months from discharge. Reduced costs related to post-stroke disability were observed in treated patients compared with those receiving standard care (control). The overall savings were €2330×15 per average patient: €1445×81 during the first 18 months, €362×25 between 18 and 24 months, and €522×09 in the 24-36 months period. The overall savings on 3174 Italian treated patients in 2013 were €7 395 907 over three-years. Our study reveals that performing thrombolytic therapy in eligible patients improves economic outcomes compared with patients receiving standard care. This model is useful for decision makers, both within and outside of the Italian national context, as a tool to assess the cost-effectiveness of thrombolysis in both short- and long-term period. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Methods for nuclear air-cleaning-system accident-consequence assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrae, R.W.; Bolstad, J.W.; Gregory, W.S.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a multilaboratory research program that is directed toward addressing many questions that analysts face when performing air cleaning accident consequence assessments. The program involves developing analytical tools and supportive experimental data that will be useful in making more realistic assessments of accident source terms within and up to the atmospheric boundaries of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The types of accidents considered in this study includes fires, explosions, spills, tornadoes, criticalities, and equipment failures. The main focus of the program is developing an accident analysis handbook (AAH). We will describe the contents of the AAH, which include descriptionsmore » of selected nuclear fuel cycle facilities, process unit operations, source-term development, and accident consequence analyses. Three computer codes designed to predict gas and material propagation through facility air cleaning systems are described. These computer codes address accidents involving fires (FIRAC), explosions (EXPAC), and tornadoes (TORAC). The handbook relies on many illustrative examples to show the analyst how to approach accident consequence assessments. We will use the FIRAC code and a hypothetical fire scenario to illustrate the accident analysis capability.« less

Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

PubMed

Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

2010-01-01

In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Béchaux, Camille, E-mail: Camille.bechaux@anses.fr; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan

As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded inmore » the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.« less

Safety distance assessment of industrial toxic releases based on frequency and consequence: a case study in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Yu, Q; Zhang, Y; Wang, X; Ma, W C; Chen, L M

2009-09-15

A case study on the safety distance assessment of a chemical industry park in Shanghai, China, is presented in this paper. Toxic releases were taken into consideration. A safety criterion based on frequency and consequence of major hazard accidents was set up for consequence analysis. The exposure limits for the accidents with the frequency of more than 10(-4), 10(-5)-10(-4) and 10(-6)-10(-5) per year were mortalities of 1% (or SLOT), 50% (SLOD) and 75% (twice of SLOD) respectively. Accidents with the frequency of less than 10(-6) per year were considered incredible and ignored in the consequence analysis. Taking the safety distance of all the hazard installations in a chemical plant into consideration, the results based on the new criterion were almost smaller than those based on LC50 or SLOD. The combination of the consequence and risk based results indicated that the hazard installations in two of the chemical plants may be dangerous to the protection targets and measurements had to be taken to reduce the risk. The case study showed that taking account of the frequency of occurrence in the consequence analysis would give more feasible safety distances for major hazard accidents and the results were more comparable to those calculated by risk assessment.

Numerical and Experimental Methods for Wake Flow Analysis in Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellani, Francesco; Astolfi, Davide; Piccioni, Emanuele; Terzi, Ludovico

2015-06-01

Assessment and interpretation of the quality of wind farms power output is a non-trivial task, which poses at least three main challenges: reliable comprehension of free wind flow, which is stretched to the limit on very complex terrains, realistic model of how wake interactions resemble on the wind flow, awareness of the consequences on turbine control systems, including alignment patterns to the wind and, consequently, power output. The present work deals with an onshore wind farm in southern Italy, which has been a test case of IEA- Task 31 Wakebench project: 17 turbines, with 2.3 MW of rated power each, are sited on a very complex terrain. A cluster of machines is investigated through numerical and experimental methods: CFD is employed for simulating wind fields and power extraction, as well as wakes, are estimated through the Actuator Disc model. SCADA data mining techniques are employed for comparison between models and actual performances. The simulations are performed both on the real terrain and on flat terrain, in order to disentangle the effects of complex flow and wake effects. Attention is devoted to comparison between actual alignment patterns of the cluster of turbines and predicted flow deviation.

Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO₂ and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health.

PubMed

Rao, Meenakshi; George, Linda A; Shandas, Vivek; Rosenstiel, Todd N

2017-07-10

Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants-and thus human health-is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO₂ is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO₂ observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO₂ with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO 2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO₂ and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO₂, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO₂ associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4-12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and -1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health.

Developing a general conceptual framework for avian conservation science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.

2003-01-01

Avian conservation science in North America has produced a variety of monitoring programs designed to provide information on population status of birds. Waterfowl surveys provide population estimates for breeding ducks over most of the continent, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides indexes to population change for >400 breeding bird species, and many other surveys exist that index bird populations at a variety of scales and seasons. However, many fundamental questions about bird population change remain unanswered. I suggest that analyses of monitoring data provide limited understanding of causes of population change, and that the declining species paradigm (Caughley 1994) is sometimes an inefficient approach to increasing our understanding of causes of population change. In North America, the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI) provides an opportunity to implement alternative approaches that use management, modeling of population responses to management, and monitoring in combination to increase our understanding of bird populations. In adaptive resources management, modeling provides predictions about consequences of management, and monitoring data allow us to assess the population consequences of management. In this framework, alternative hypotheses about response of populations to management can be evaluated by formulating a series of models with differing structure, and management and monitoring provide information about which model best predicts population response.

Demographic and genetic connectivity: the role and consequences of reproduction, dispersal and recruitment in seagrasses.

PubMed

Kendrick, Gary A; Orth, Robert J; Statton, John; Hovey, Renae; Ruiz Montoya, Leonardo; Lowe, Ryan J; Krauss, Siegfried L; Sinclair, Elizabeth A

2017-05-01

Accurate estimation of connectivity among populations is fundamental for determining the drivers of population resilience, genetic diversity, adaptation and speciation. However the separation and quantification of contemporary versus historical connectivity remains a major challenge. This review focuses on marine angiosperms, seagrasses, that are fundamental to the health and productivity of temperate and tropical coastal marine environments globally. Our objective is to understand better the role of sexual reproduction and recruitment in influencing demographic and genetic connectivity among seagrass populations through an integrated multidisciplinary assessment of our present ecological, genetic, and demographic understanding, with hydrodynamic modelling of transport. We investigate (i) the demographic consequences of sexual reproduction, dispersal and recruitment in seagrasses, (ii) contemporary transport of seagrass pollen, fruits and seed, and vegetative fragments with a focus on hydrodynamic and particle transport models, and (iii) contemporary genetic connectivity among seagrass meadows as inferred through the application of genetic markers. New approaches are reviewed, followed by a summary outlining future directions for research: integrating seascape genetic approaches; incorporating hydrodynamic modelling for dispersal of pollen, seeds and vegetative fragments; integrating studies across broader geographic ranges; and incorporating non-equilibrium modelling. These approaches will lead to a more integrated understanding of the role of contemporary dispersal and recruitment in the persistence and evolution of seagrasses. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

The Population Consequences of Disturbance Model Application to North Atlantic Right Whales (Eubalaena Glacialis)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

the revised approach is called PCOD (Population Consequences Of Disturbance) . In North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis), extensive data on...disturbance and prey variability into the PCOD model. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Report...Figure 1. Modified model of population consequences of disturbance ( PCOD ) (Thomas et al. 2011). OBJECTIVES The objectives for this study are

Re-assessment of road accident data-analysis policy : applying theory from involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to voluntary, low-consequence, high-probability events like traffic accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-02-01

This report examines the literature on involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability (IHL) events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to determine what can be applied to the problem of voluntary, low-consequence high-probability (VLH) events like tra...

The influence of the perceived consequences of refusing to share injection equipment among injection drug users: Balancing competing risks

PubMed Central

Wagner, Karla D.; Lankenau, Stephen E.; Palinkas, Lawrence A.; Richardson, Jean L.; Chou, Chih-Ping; Unger, Jennifer B.

2011-01-01

Injection drug users (IDUs) are at risk for HIV and other bloodborne pathogens through receptive syringe sharing (RSS) and receptive paraphernalia sharing (RPS). Research into the influence of the perceived risk of HIV infection on injection risk behavior has yielded mixed findings. One explanation may be that consequences other than HIV infection are considered when IDUs are faced with decisions about whether or not to share equipment. We investigated the perceived consequences of refusing to share injection equipment among 187 IDUs recruited from a large syringe exchange program in Los Angeles, California, assessed their influence on RSS and RPS, and evaluated gender differences. Two sub-scales of perceived consequences were identified: structural/external consequences and social/internal consequences. In multiple linear regression, the perceived social/internal consequences of refusing to share were associated with both RSS and RPS, after controlling for other psychosocial constructs and demographic variables. Few statistically significant gender differences emerged. Assessing the consequences of refusing to share injection equipment may help explain persistent injection risk behavior, and may provide promising targets for comprehensive intervention efforts designed to address both individual and structural risk factors. PMID:21498004

SRNL PARTICIPATION IN THE MULTI-SCALE ENSEMBLE EXERCISES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buckley, R

2007-10-29

Consequence assessment during emergency response often requires atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling to guide decision making. A statistical analysis of the ensemble of results from several models is a useful way of estimating the uncertainty for a given forecast. ENSEMBLE is a European Union program that utilizes an internet-based system to ingest transport results from numerous modeling agencies. A recent set of exercises required output on three distinct spatial and temporal scales. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) uses a regional prognostic model nested within a larger-scale synoptic model to generate the meteorological conditions which are in turn used inmore » a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. A discussion of SRNL participation in these exercises is given, with particular emphasis on requirements for provision of results in a timely manner with regard to the various spatial scales.« less

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agriculturalmore » Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.« less

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold; Boote, Kenneth J.; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Martre, Pierre; McDermid, Sonali P.; Müller, Christoph; Snyder, Abigail; Thorburn, Peter J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.

Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

PubMed

Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2012-12-01

Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant outcomes from the described RRA application highlighted that potential climate change impacts will occur with different extension and magnitude in the case study area. Particularly, qualitative and quantitative impacts on groundwater will occur with more severe consequences in the wettest and in the driest scenario (respectively). Moreover, such impacts will likely have little direct effects on related ecosystems - croplands, forests and natural environments - lying along the spring area (about 12% of croplands and 2% of natural environments at risk) while more severe consequences will indirectly occur on natural and anthropic systems through the reduction in quality and quantity of water availability for agricultural and other uses (about 80% of agricultural areas and 27% of groundwater bodies at risk). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships.

PubMed

Wang, J

2002-01-01

Tragic marine and offshore accidents have caused serious consequences including loss of lives, loss of property, and damage of the environment. A proactive, risk-based "goal setting" regime is introduced to the marine and offshore industries to increase the level of safety. To maximize marine and offshore safety, risks need to be modeled and safety-based decisions need to be made in a logical and confident way. Risk modeling and decision-making tools need to be developed and applied in a practical environment. This paper describes both the offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships in detail with particular reference to the design aspects. The current practices and the latest development in safety assessment in both the marine and offshore industries are described. The relationship between the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment is described and discussed. Three examples are used to demonstrate both the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment. The study of risk criteria in marine and offshore safety assessment is carried out. The recommendations on further work required are given. This paper gives safety engineers in the marine and offshore industries an overview of the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment. The significance of moving toward a risk-based "goal setting" regime is given.

Representing Micro-Macro Linkages by Actor-Based Dynamic Network Models

PubMed Central

Snijders, Tom A.B.; Steglich, Christian E.G.

2014-01-01

Stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics have the primary aim of statistical inference about processes of network change, but may be regarded as a kind of agent-based models. Similar to many other agent-based models, they are based on local rules for actor behavior. Different from many other agent-based models, by including elements of generalized linear statistical models they aim to be realistic detailed representations of network dynamics in empirical data sets. Statistical parallels to micro-macro considerations can be found in the estimation of parameters determining local actor behavior from empirical data, and the assessment of goodness of fit from the correspondence with network-level descriptives. This article studies several network-level consequences of dynamic actor-based models applied to represent cross-sectional network data. Two examples illustrate how network-level characteristics can be obtained as emergent features implied by micro-specifications of actor-based models. PMID:25960578

Statistical models for fever forecasting based on advanced body temperature monitoring.

PubMed

Jordan, Jorge; Miro-Martinez, Pau; Vargas, Borja; Varela-Entrecanales, Manuel; Cuesta-Frau, David

2017-02-01

Body temperature monitoring provides health carers with key clinical information about the physiological status of patients. Temperature readings are taken periodically to detect febrile episodes and consequently implement the appropriate medical countermeasures. However, fever is often difficult to assess at early stages, or remains undetected until the next reading, probably a few hours later. The objective of this article is to develop a statistical model to forecast fever before a temperature threshold is exceeded to improve the therapeutic approach to the subjects involved. To this end, temperature series of 9 patients admitted to a general internal medicine ward were obtained with a continuous monitoring Holter device, collecting measurements of peripheral and core temperature once per minute. These series were used to develop different statistical models that could quantify the probability of having a fever spike in the following 60 minutes. A validation series was collected to assess the accuracy of the models. Finally, the results were compared with the analysis of some series by experienced clinicians. Two different models were developed: a logistic regression model and a linear discrimination analysis model. Both of them exhibited a fever peak forecasting accuracy greater than 84%. When compared with experts' assessment, both models identified 35 (97.2%) of 36 fever spikes. The models proposed are highly accurate in forecasting the appearance of fever spikes within a short period in patients with suspected or confirmed febrile-related illnesses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mental health consequences of weight cycling in the first-year post-treatment for breast cancer.

PubMed

Pila, Eva; Sabiston, Catherine M; Castonguay, Andrée L; Arbour-Nicitopoulos, Kelly; Taylor, Valerie H

2018-08-01

Weight cycling is linked with advanced breast cancer diagnosis, increased risk of cancer reoccurrence and cancer-related mortality. While women treated for breast cancer report challenges with navigating their post-treatment body shape and weight, the effects of weight cycling on body image and mental health have not been elucidated. This study examined associations between weight changes and weight cycling on psychological health (i.e. weight-related guilt, shame and depressive symptoms) among women in the first-year post-treatment. Self-reported assessments of pre-cancer weight cycling, post-treatment weight-related guilt, shame and depressive symptoms, and objective assessments of weight were assessed in a longitudinal sample of 173 women treated for breast cancer (M age  = 55.01 ± 10.96 years). Based on findings from multilevel models, women experienced the most weight-related shame when their weight was heavier than their personal average. Additionally, heavier weight was associated with worse psychological health, particularly for women with a history of stable (vs. cycling) weight pre-cancer. Weight cycling pre-cancer and post-treatment weight change have important implications for psychological well-being. Due to the potential psychological consequences associated with a history of weight cycling, targeted strategies are needed to improve overall health outcomes for women's survivorship after breast cancer.

The toxicology and immunology of detergent enzymes.

PubMed

Basketter, David; Berg, Ninna; Kruszewski, Francis H; Sarlo, Katherine; Concoby, Beth

2012-01-01

Detergent enzymes have a very good safety profile, with almost no capacity to generate adverse acute or chronic responses in humans. The exceptions are the limited ability of some proteases to produce irritating effects at high concentrations, and the intrinsic potential of these bacterial and fungal proteins to act as respiratory sensitizers, demonstrated in humans during the early phase of the industrial use of enzymes during the 1960s and 1970s. How enzymes generate these responses are beginning to become a little clearer, with a developing appreciation of the cell surface mechanism(s) by which the enzymatic activity promotes the T-helper (T(H))-2 cell responses, leading to the generation of IgE. It is a reasonable assumption that the majority of enzyme proteins possess this intrinsic hazard. However, toxicological methods for characterizing further the respiratory sensitization hazard of individual enzymes remains a problematic area, with the consequence that the information feeding into risk assessment/management, although sufficient, is limited. Most of this information was in the past generated in animal models and in vitro immunoassays that assess immunological cross-reactivity. Ultimately, by understanding more fully the mechanisms which drive the IgE response to enzymes, it will be possible to develop better methods for hazard characterization and consequently for risk assessment and management.

Agenda, extended abstracts, and bibliographies for a workshop on Deposit modeling, mineral resources assessment, and their role in sustainable development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briskey, Joseph A.; Schulz, Klaus J.

2002-01-01

Global demand for mineral resources continues to increase because of increasing global population and the desire and efforts to improve living standards worldwide. The ability to meet this growing demand for minerals is affected by the concerns about possible environmental degradation associated with minerals production and by competing land uses. Informed planning and decisions concerning sustainability and resource development require a long-term perspective and an integrated approach to land-use, resource, and environmental management worldwide. This, in turn, requires unbiased information on the global distribution of identified and especially undiscovered resources, the economic and political factors influencing their development, and the potential environmental consequences of their exploitation. The purpose of the IGC workshop is to review the state-of-the-art in mineral-deposit modeling and quantitative resource assessment and to examine their role in the sustainability of mineral use. The workshop will address such questions as: Which of the available mineral-deposit models and assessment methods are best suited for predicting the locations, deposit types, and amounts of undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources remaining in the world? What is the availability of global geologic, mineral deposit, and mineral-exploration information? How can mineral-resource assessments be used to address economic and environmental issues? Presentations will include overviews of assessment methods used in previous national and other small-scale assessments of large regions as well as resulting assessment products and their uses.

Forcing of global ocean models using an atmospheric boundary layer model: assessing consequences for the simulation of the AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abel, Rafael; Boening, Claus

2015-04-01

Current practice in the atmospheric forcing of ocean model simulations can lead to unphysical behaviours. The problem lies in the bulk formulation of the turbulent air-sea fluxes in conjunction with a prescribed, and unresponsive, atmospheric state as given, e.g., by reanalysis products. This forcing formulation corresponds to assuming an atmosphere with infinite heat capacity, and effectively damps SST anomalies even on basin scales. It thus curtails an important negative feedback between meridional ocean heat transport and SST in the North Atlantic, rendering simulations of the AMOC in such models excessively sensitive to details in the freshwater fluxes. As a consequence, such simulations are known for spurious drift behaviors which can only partially controlled by introducing some (and sometimes strong) unphysical restoring of sea surface salinity. There have been several suggestions during the last 20 years for at least partially alleviating the problem by including some simplified model of the atmospheric boundary layer (AML) which allows a feedback of SST anomalies on the near-surface air temperature and humidity needed to calculate the surface fluxes. We here present simulations with a simple, only thermally active AML formulation (based on the 'CheapAML' proposed by Deremble et al., 2013) implemented in a global model configuration based on NEMO (ORCA05). In a suite of experiments building on the CORE-bulk forcing methodology, we examine some general features of the AML-solutions (in which only the winds are prescribed) in comparison to solutions with a prescribed atmosperic state. The focus is on the North Atlantic, where we find that the adaptation of the atmospheric temperature the simulated ocean state can lead to strong local modifications in the surface heat fluxes in frontal regions (e.g., the 'Northwest Corner'). We particularly assess the potential of the AML-forcing concept for obtaining AMOC-simulations with reduced spurious drift, without employing the traditional remedy of salinity restoring.

Using Parental Profiles to Predict Membership in a Subset of College Students Experiencing Excessive Alcohol Consequences: Findings From a Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Varvil-Weld, Lindsey; Mallett, Kimberly A.; Turrisi, Rob; Abar, Caitlin C.

2012-01-01

Objective: Previous research identified a high-risk subset of college students experiencing a disproportionate number of alcohol-related consequences at the end of their first year. With the goal of identifying pre-college predictors of membership in this high-risk subset, the present study used a prospective design to identify latent profiles of student-reported maternal and paternal parenting styles and alcohol-specific behaviors and to determine whether these profiles were associated with membership in the high-risk consequences subset. Method: A sample of randomly selected 370 incoming first-year students at a large public university reported on their mothers’ and fathers’ communication quality, monitoring, approval of alcohol use, and modeling of drinking behaviors and on consequences experienced across the first year of college. Results: Students in the high-risk subset comprised 15.5% of the sample but accounted for almost half (46.6%) of the total consequences reported by the entire sample. Latent profile analyses identified four parental profiles: positive pro-alcohol, positive anti-alcohol, negative mother, and negative father. Logistic regression analyses revealed that students in the negative-father profile were at greatest odds of being in the high-risk consequences subset at a follow-up assessment 1 year later, even after drinking at baseline was controlled for. Students in the positive pro-alcohol profile also were at increased odds of being in the high-risk subset, although this association was attenuated after baseline drinking was controlled for. Conclusions: These findings have important implications for the improvement of existing parent- and individual-based college student drinking interventions designed to reduce alcohol-related consequences. PMID:22456248

Impact of untreated dental caries and its clinical consequences on the oral health-related quality of life of schoolchildren aged 8-10 years.

PubMed

Mota-Veloso, Isabella; Soares, Maria Eliza C; Alencar, Bruna Mota; Marques, Leandro Silva; Ramos-Jorge, Maria Letícia; Ramos-Jorge, Joana

2016-01-01

This study aims to evaluate the impact of untreated dental caries and its clinical consequences on the quality of life of Brazilian schoolchildren aged 8-10 years. A randomly selected sample of 587 children underwent a clinical oral examination for the assessment of untreated dental caries and clinical consequences. The WHO criteria (decayed component of the decayed, missing, and filled teeth--D-DMFT in permanent teeth or d-dfmt in primary teeth) and the PUFA index, which records the presence of severely decayed permanent (upper case) and primary (lower case) teeth with visible pulpal involvement (P/p), as well as ulceration caused by dislocated tooth fragments (U/u), fistula (F/f), and abscesses (A/a), were used for the oral examination. Oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) was evaluated using the Child's Perception Questionnaire (CPQ8-10). Poisson regression was employed to test unadjusted and adjusted associations between untreated dental caries/clinical consequences and OHRQoL. The prevalence of untreated dental caries was 64.6% (D/d component of DMFT/dmft > 0) and 17.9% of children exhibited clinical consequences of caries (PUFA/pufa index >0). In the adjusted models, untreated caries was significantly associated with the total CPQ8-10 score and all subscale scores. The clinical consequences of dental caries (PUFA/pufa index >0) were significantly associated with the total CPQ8-10 as well as the oral symptoms and functional limitations' subscales. Untreated dental caries and its clinical consequences exerted a negative impact on the OHRQoL of the schoolchildren analyzed.

Using parental profiles to predict membership in a subset of college students experiencing excessive alcohol consequences: findings from a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Varvil-Weld, Lindsey; Mallett, Kimberly A; Turrisi, Rob; Abar, Caitlin C

2012-05-01

Previous research identified a high-risk subset of college students experiencing a disproportionate number of alcohol-related consequences at the end of their first year. With the goal of identifying pre-college predictors of membership in this high-risk subset, the present study used a prospective design to identify latent profiles of student-reported maternal and paternal parenting styles and alcohol-specific behaviors and to determine whether these profiles were associated with membership in the high-risk consequences subset. A sample of randomly selected 370 incoming first-year students at a large public university reported on their mothers' and fathers' communication quality, monitoring, approval of alcohol use, and modeling of drinking behaviors and on consequences experienced across the first year of college. Students in the high-risk subset comprised 15.5% of the sample but accounted for almost half (46.6%) of the total consequences reported by the entire sample. Latent profile analyses identified four parental profiles: positive pro-alcohol, positive anti-alcohol, negative mother, and negative father. Logistic regression analyses revealed that students in the negative-father profile were at greatest odds of being in the high-risk consequences subset at a follow-up assessment 1 year later, even after drinking at baseline was controlled for. Students in the positive pro-alcohol profile also were at increased odds of being in the high-risk subset, although this association was attenuated after baseline drinking was controlled for. These findings have important implications for the improvement of existing parent- and individual-based college student drinking interventions designed to reduce alcohol-related consequences.

Application-Driven No-Reference Quality Assessment for Dermoscopy Images With Multiple Distortions.

PubMed

Xie, Fengying; Lu, Yanan; Bovik, Alan C; Jiang, Zhiguo; Meng, Rusong

2016-06-01

Dermoscopy images often suffer from blur and uneven illumination distortions that occur during acquisition, which can adversely influence consequent automatic image analysis results on potential lesion objects. The purpose of this paper is to deploy an algorithm that can automatically assess the quality of dermoscopy images. Such an algorithm could be used to direct image recapture or correction. We describe an application-driven no-reference image quality assessment (IQA) model for dermoscopy images affected by possibly multiple distortions. For this purpose, we created a multiple distortion dataset of dermoscopy images impaired by varying degrees of blur and uneven illumination. The basis of this model is two single distortion IQA metrics that are sensitive to blur and uneven illumination, respectively. The outputs of these two metrics are combined to predict the quality of multiply distorted dermoscopy images using a fuzzy neural network. Unlike traditional IQA algorithms, which use human subjective score as ground truth, here ground truth is driven by the application, and generated according to the degree of influence of the distortions on lesion analysis. The experimental results reveal that the proposed model delivers accurate and stable quality prediction results for dermoscopy images impaired by multiple distortions. The proposed model is effective for quality assessment of multiple distorted dermoscopy images. An application-driven concept for IQA is introduced, and at the same time, a solution framework for the IQA of multiple distortions is proposed.

Rodent Models of Genetic Contributions to Motivation to Abuse Alcohol

PubMed Central

Crabbe, John C.

2016-01-01

The distinction between alcohol use (normative) and abuse (unfortunately common) implies dysregulation of motivation directed toward the drug. Genetic contributions to abuse risk are mediated through personality differences, other predispositions to drink excessively, and differences in sensitivity to the acute and chronic consequences of the drug. How to assess motivation in laboratory animals is not straightforward but risk factors for and consequences of alcohol abuse can be modeled with reasonable fidelity in laboratory rodents. Remarkably few rodent studies focus on the genetic contributions to alcohol’s reinforcing value: almost all examine preferential drinking of unflavored alcohol over water. Such studies will likely never avoid the confounding role of taste preferences and most often yield intake levels insufficient to yield a pharmacologically significant blood alcohol level. Genotypes that avoid alcohol probably do so based on pre-ingestive sensory cues; however, post-ingestive consequences are also important. Thus, the quest for improved measures of reinforcing value continues. We have genetic differences aplenty, but still lack evidence that any genotype will readily self-administer alcohol to the devastating extent that many alcoholics will. Encouraging results that are emerging include improved behavioral methods for elevating alcohol intake and inferring alcohol reinforcement, as well as new genetic animal models. Several ingenious assays to index alcohol’s motivational effects have been used extensively. Alcoholic drinking that attempts to prevent or to alleviate withdrawal symptoms has been modeled. Another characteristic of alcoholic drinking is its persistence despite abundant evidence to the drinker of the damaging effects of the excessive drinking on work, relationships, and/or health. Modeling such persistence in rodents has been uncommon to date. New genetic animal models include lines of mice selectively bred for chronic high drinking, and other bred for high binge-like drinking. We have a much more clear idea now about some important experiments remaining to be performed. PMID:25306777

Simulated growth and production of endangered Snake River Sockeye Salmon: Assessing management strategies for the nursery lakes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luecke, C.; Wurtsbaugh, W.A.; Budy, P.

1996-06-01

This document examines the potential of employing a series of lake management strategies to enhance production of endangered Snake River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in its historical nursery lakes in central Idaho. A combination of limnological sampling, experimentation, and simulation modeling was used to assess effects of lake fertilization and kokanee reduction on growth and survival of juvenile sockeye salmon. Juvenile sockeye salmon from a broodstock of this endangered species are being introduced into the lakes from 1995 to 1998. Results of our analyses indicated that several lakes were suitable for receiving broodstock progeny. Field experimentation and simulation modeling indicatedmore » that lake fertilization, coupled with a program of kokanee reduction, provided the management option most likely to enhance the survival of stocked juvenile sockeye salmon. Simulation models that encompass physiological requirements, ecological interactions, and life-history consequences could be used as templates to help develop recovery plans for other endangered fishes. 4 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Modeling Hydrological Extremes in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Martinez, Fabian; Kalantari, Zahra; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Hydrological studies have investigated human impacts on hydrological extremes, i.e. droughts and floods, while social studies have explored human responses and adaptation to them. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from two-way feedbacks, i.e. both impacts and responses. Traditional risk assessment methods therefore fail to assess future dynamics, and thus risk reduction strategies built on these methods can lead to unintended consequences in the medium-long term. Here we review the dynamics resulting from the reciprocal links between society and hydrological extremes, and describe initial efforts to model floods and droughts in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both hydrological extremes, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between droughts, foods and reservoir operation rules. Unprecedented opportunities offered by the growing availability of global data and worldwide archives to uncover the mutual shaping of hydrological extremes and society across places and scales are also discussed.

Gravity-driven groundwater flow and slope failure potential: 1. Elastic effective-stress model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Richard M.; Reid, Mark E.

1992-01-01

Hilly or mountainous topography influences gravity-driven groundwater flow and the consequent distribution of effective stress in shallow subsurface environments. Effective stress, in turn, influences the potential for slope failure. To evaluate these influences, we formulate a two-dimensional, steady state, poroelastic model. The governing equations incorporate groundwater effects as body forces, and they demonstrate that spatially uniform pore pressure changes do not influence effective stresses. We implement the model using two finite element codes. As an illustrative case, we calculate the groundwater flow field, total body force field, and effective stress field in a straight, homogeneous hillslope. The total body force and effective stress fields show that groundwater flow can influence shear stresses as well as effective normal stresses. In most parts of the hillslope, groundwater flow significantly increases the Coulomb failure potential Φ, which we define as the ratio of maximum shear stress to mean effective normal stress. Groundwater flow also shifts the locus of greatest failure potential toward the slope toe. However, the effects of groundwater flow on failure potential are less pronounced than might be anticipated on the basis of a simpler, one-dimensional, limit equilibrium analysis. This is a consequence of continuity, compatibility, and boundary constraints on the two-dimensional flow and stress fields, and it points to important differences between our elastic continuum model and limit equilibrium models commonly used to assess slope stability.

Examining Evidence for External and Consequential Validity of the First Term General Chemistry Exam from the ACS Examinations Institute

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Scott E.

2014-01-01

Validity of educational research instruments and student assessments has appropriately become a growing interest in the chemistry education research community. Of particular concern is an attention to the consequences to students that result from the interpretation of assessment scores and whether those consequences are swayed by invalidity within…

Assessment of Workplace Stress: Occupational Stress, Its Consequences, and Common Causes of Teacher Stress.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, Jo-Ida; Sullivan, Brandon A.

This chapter introduces teachers and other education professionals to the assessment of occupational stress. It begins with a brief discussion of what occupational stress is, and overview of the consequences of prolonged stress, and a review of the common causes of teacher stress. Next, it presents methods for reducing occupational stress through…

Toward Sustainable Anticipatory Governance: Analyzing and Assessing Nanotechnology Innovation Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, Rider Williams

Cities around the globe struggle with socio-economic disparities, resource inefficiency, environmental contamination, and quality-of-life challenges. Technological innovation, as one prominent approach to problem solving, promises to address these challenges; yet, introducing new technologies, such as nanotechnology, into society and cities has often resulted in negative consequences. Recent research has conceptually linked anticipatory governance and sustainability science: to understand the role of technology in complex problems our societies face; to anticipate negative consequences of technological innovation; and to promote long-term oriented and responsible governance of technologies. This dissertation advances this link conceptually and empirically, focusing on nanotechnology and urban sustainability challenges. The guiding question for this dissertation research is: How can nanotechnology be innovated and governed in responsible ways and with sustainable outcomes? The dissertation: analyzes the nanotechnology innovation process from an actor- and activities-oriented perspective (Chapter 2); assesses this innovation process from a comprehensive perspective on sustainable governance (Chapter 3); constructs a small set of future scenarios to consider future implications of different nanotechnology governance models (Chapter 4); and appraises the amenability of sustainability problems to nanotechnological interventions (Chapter 5). The four studies are based on data collected through literature review, document analysis, participant observation, interviews, workshops, and walking audits, as part of process analysis, scenario construction, and technology assessment. Research was conducted in collaboration with representatives from industry, government agencies, and civic organizations. The empirical parts of the four studies focus on Metropolitan Phoenix. Findings suggest that: predefined mandates and economic goals dominate the nanotechnology innovation process; normative responsibilities identified by risk governance, sustainability-oriented governance, and anticipatory governance are infrequently considered in the nanotechnology innovation process; different governance models will have major impacts on the role and effects of nanotechnology in cities in the future; and nanotechnologies, currently, do not effectively address the root causes of urban sustainability challenges and require complementary solution approaches. This dissertation contributes to the concepts of anticipatory governance and sustainability science on how to constructively guide nanotechnological innovation in order to harvest its positive potential and safeguard against negative consequences.

A model to account for the consequences of host nutrition on the outcome of gastrointestinal parasitism in sheep: model evaluation.

PubMed

Vagenas, D; Bishop, S C; Kyriazakis, I

2007-08-01

This paper describes sensitivity analyses and expectations obtained from a mathematical model developed to account for the effects of host nutrition on the consequences of gastrointestinal parasitism in sheep. The scenarios explored included different levels of parasitic challenge at different planes of nutrition, for hosts differing only in their characteristics for growth. The model was able to predict the consequences of host nutrition on the outcome of parasitism, in terms of worm burden, number of eggs excreted per gram faeces and animal performance. The model outputs predict that conclusions on the ability of hosts of different characteristics for growth to cope with parasitism (i.e. resistance) depend on the plane of nutrition. Furthermore, differences in the growth rate of sheep, on their own, are not sufficient to account for differences in the observed resistance of animals. The model forms the basis for evaluating the consequences of differing management strategies and environments, such as breeding for certain traits associated with resistance and nutritional strategies, on the consequences of gastrointestinal parasitism on sheep.

The Short Inventory of Problems – Revised (SIP-R): Psychometric properties within a large, diverse sample of substance use disorder treatment seekers

PubMed Central

Kiluk, Brian D.; Dreifuss, Jessica A.; Weiss, Roger D.; Morgenstern, Jon; Carroll, Kathleen M.

2012-01-01

Assessment of the adverse consequences of substance use serves an important function in both clinical and research settings, yet there is no universally agreed upon measure of consequences relevant to multiple types of substance use disorders. One of the most commonly used measures, the Short Inventory of Problems (SIP), has been adapted and evaluated in several specific populations, but evidence of its reliability and validity across broader samples of persons with substance use disorders is needed. This study evaluated the psychometric properties of a revised version of the SIP (SIP-R) in a large combined sample of alcohol and drug use disorder treatment-seekers, with participants pooled from two national, multisite randomized clinical trials. A total of 886 participants across 10 outpatient treatment facilities completed a common assessment battery that included the SIP-R, Addiction Severity Index (ASI), University of Rhode Island Change Assessment (URICA), HIV Risk Behavior Scale (HRBS), and a substance use calendar. Results supported the SIP-R’s internal reliability (α=.95). Confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated that the hypothesized 5-factor model with one higher-order factor produced the best fit. Convergent validity was evident through the SIP-R’s correlation with several composite scores from the ASI and the URICA, and analyses supported its conceptual distinction from quantity indices of drug/alcohol use. The SIP-R also demonstrated an ability to predict treatment retention, with higher scores associated with poorer retention. These results provide support for the SIP-R’s psychometric properties as a measure of consequences across a broad sample of treatment-seeking drug and alcohol users. PMID:22642856

Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change.

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Woodruff, Rosalie

2006-12-01

The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide, to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change, which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate-health relationships, which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the longterm and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects, including high-impact events.

(A)biotic processes control soil carbon dynamics: quantitative assessment of model complexity, stability and response to perturbations for improving ESMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, K.; Abramoff, R. Z.; Harte, J.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

2016-12-01

As global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to increase, soil microbial activity and decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) are expected to follow suit, potentially limiting soil carbon storage. Traditional global- and ecosystem-scale models simulate SOM decomposition using linear kinetics, which are inherently unable to reproduce carbon-concentration feedbacks, such as priming of native SOM at elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent studies using nonlinear microbial models of SOM decomposition seek to capture these interactions, and several groups are currently integrating these microbial models into Earth System Models (ESMs). However, despite their widespread ability to exhibit nonlinear responses, these models vary tremendously in complexity and, consequently, dynamics. In this study, we explore, both analytically and numerically, the emergent oscillatory behavior and insensitivity of SOM stocks to carbon inputs that have been deemed `unrealistic' in recent microbial models. We discuss the sources of instability in four models of varying complexity, by sequentially reducing complexity of a detailed model that includes microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We also present an alternative representation of microbial turnover that limits population sizes and, thus, reduces oscillations. We compare these models to several long-term carbon input manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that traditional linear and nonlinear models cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures, and that modifying microbial turnover results in more realistic predictions. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in ESMs.

Practical simplifications for radioimmunotherapy dosimetric models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, S.; DeNardo, G.L.; O`Donnell, R.T.

1999-01-01

Radiation dosimetry is potentially useful for assessment and prediction of efficacy and toxicity for radionuclide therapy. The usefulness of these dose estimates relies on the establishment of a dose-response model using accurate pharmacokinetic data and a radiation dosimetric model. Due to the complexity in radiation dose estimation, many practical simplifications have been introduced in the dosimetric modeling for clinical trials of radioimmunotherapy. Although research efforts are generally needed to improve the simplifications used at each stage of model development, practical simplifications are often possible for specific applications without significant consequences to the dose-response model. In the development of dosimetric methodsmore » for radioimmunotherapy, practical simplifications in the dosimetric models were introduced. This study evaluated the magnitude of uncertainty associated with practical simplifications for: (1) organ mass of the MIRD phantom; (2) radiation contribution from target alone; (3) interpolation of S value; (4) macroscopic tumor uniformity; and (5) fit of tumor pharmacokinetic data.« less

Integrated assessment of water-power grid systems under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, E.; Zhou, Z.; Betrie, G.

2017-12-01

Energy and water systems are intrinsically interconnected. Due to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events, interdependency between these two systems has been recently intensified resulting significant impacts on both systems and energy output. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. In this presentation, we are focusing on recent improvement in model development of thermoelectric power plant water use simulator, power grid operation and cost optimization model, and model integration that facilitate interaction among water and electricity generation under extreme climate events. A process based thermoelectric power water use simulator includes heat-balance, climate, and cooling system modules that account for power plant characteristics, fuel types, and cooling technology. The model is validated with more than 800 power plants of fossil-fired, nuclear and gas-turbine power plants with different cooling systems. The power grid operation and cost optimization model was implemented for a selected regional in the Midwest. The case study will be demonstrated to evaluate the sensitivity and resilience of thermoelectricity generation and power grid under various climate and hydrologic extremes and potential economic consequences.

Evaluation of new farming technologies in Ethiopia using the Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS).

PubMed

Clarke, Neville; Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Dile, Yihun; Worqlul, Abeyou; Osorio, Javier; Herbst, Brian; Richardson, James W; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Gerik, Thomas J; Williams, Jimmy; Jones, Charles A; Jeong, Jaehak

2017-01-31

This study investigates multi-dimensional impacts of adopting new technology in agriculture at the farm/village and watershed scale in sub-Saharan Africa using the Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS). Application of IDSS as an integrated modeling tool helps solve complex issues in agricultural systems by simultaneously assessing production, environmental, economic, and nutritional consequences of adopting agricultural technologies for sustainable increases in food production and use of scarce natural resources. The IDSS approach was applied to the Amhara region of Ethiopia, where the scarcity of resources and agro-environmental consequences are critical to agricultural productivity of small farm, to analyze the impacts of alternative agricultural technology interventions. Results show significant improvements in family income and nutrition, achieved through the adoption of irrigation technologies, proper use of fertilizer, and improved seed varieties while preserving environmental indicators in terms of soil erosion and sediment loadings. These pilot studies demonstrate the usefulness of the IDSS approach as a tool that can be used to predict and evaluate the economic and environmental consequences of adopting new agricultural technologies that aim to improve the livelihoods of subsistence farmers.

Explaining postnatal growth plasticity in a generalist brood parasite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remeš, Vladimír

2010-03-01

Selection of a particular host has clear consequences for the performance of avian brood parasites. Experimental studies showed that growth rate and fledging mass of brood parasites varied between host species independently of the original host species. Finding correlates of this phenotypic plasticity in growth is important for assessing adaptiveness and potential fitness consequences of host choice. Here, I analyzed the effects of several host characteristics on growth rate and fledging mass of the young of brown-headed cowbird ( Molothrus ater), a generalist, non-evicting brood parasite. Cowbird chicks grew better in fast-developing host species and reached higher fledging mass in large hosts with fast postnatal development. A potential proximate mechanism linking fast growth and high fledging mass of cowbird with fast host development is superior food supply in fast-developing foster species. So far, we know very little about the consequences of the great plasticity in cowbird growth for later performance of the adult parasite. Thus, cowbird species could become interesting model systems for investigating the role of plasticity and optimization in the evolution of growth rate in birds.

Efficiency assessment of wastewater treatment plants: A data envelopment analysis approach integrating technical, economic, and environmental issues.

PubMed

Castellet, Lledó; Molinos-Senante, María

2016-02-01

The assessment of the efficiency of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is essential to compare their performance and consequently to identify the best operational practices that can contribute to the reduction of operational costs. Previous studies have evaluated the efficiency of WWTPs using conventional data envelopment analysis (DEA) models. Most of these studies have considered the operational costs of the WWTPs as inputs, while the pollutants removed from wastewater are treated as outputs. However, they have ignored the fact that each pollutant removed by a WWTP involves a different environmental impact. To overcome this limitation, this paper evaluates for the first time the efficiency of a sample of WWTPs by applying the weighted slacks-based measure model. It is a non-radial DEA model which allows assigning weights to the inputs and outputs according their importance. Thus, the assessment carried out integrates environmental issues with the traditional "techno-economic" efficiency assessment of WWTPs. Moreover, the potential economic savings for each cost item have been quantified at a plant level. It is illustrated that the WWTPs analyzed have significant room to save staff and energy costs. Several managerial implications to help WWTPs' operators make informed decisions were drawn from the methodology and empirical application carried out. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walter, Joel A.; Lawrence, William R.; Elder, David W.; Treece, Michael D.

2010-01-01

This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.

Performance on perceptual word identification is mediated by discrete states.

PubMed

Swagman, April R; Province, Jordan M; Rouder, Jeffrey N

2015-02-01

We contrast predictions from discrete-state models of all-or-none information loss with signal-detection models of graded strength for the identification of briefly flashed English words. Previous assessments have focused on whether ROC curves are straight or not, which is a test of a discrete-state model where detection leads to the highest confidence response with certainty. We along with many others argue this certainty assumption is too constraining, and, consequently, the straight-line ROC test is too stringent. Instead, we assess a core property of discrete-state models, conditional independence, where the pattern of responses depends only on which state is entered. The conditional independence property implies that confidence ratings are a mixture of detect and guess state responses, and that stimulus strength factors, the duration of the flashed word in this report, affect only the probability of entering a state and not responses conditional on a state. To assess this mixture property, 50 participants saw words presented briefly on a computer screen at three variable flash durations followed by either a two-alternative confidence ratings task or a yes-no confidence ratings task. Comparable discrete-state and signal-detection models were fit to the data for each participant and task. The discrete-state models outperformed the signal detection models for 90 % of participants in the two-alternative task and for 68 % of participants in the yes-no task. We conclude discrete-state models are viable for predicting performance across stimulus conditions in a perceptual word identification task.

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

2016-08-01

Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

Does the choice of nucleotide substitution models matter topologically?

PubMed

Hoff, Michael; Orf, Stefan; Riehm, Benedikt; Darriba, Diego; Stamatakis, Alexandros

2016-03-24

In the context of a master level programming practical at the computer science department of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, we developed and make available an open-source code for testing all 203 possible nucleotide substitution models in the Maximum Likelihood (ML) setting under the common Akaike, corrected Akaike, and Bayesian information criteria. We address the question if model selection matters topologically, that is, if conducting ML inferences under the optimal, instead of a standard General Time Reversible model, yields different tree topologies. We also assess, to which degree models selected and trees inferred under the three standard criteria (AIC, AICc, BIC) differ. Finally, we assess if the definition of the sample size (#sites versus #sites × #taxa) yields different models and, as a consequence, different tree topologies. We find that, all three factors (by order of impact: nucleotide model selection, information criterion used, sample size definition) can yield topologically substantially different final tree topologies (topological difference exceeding 10 %) for approximately 5 % of the tree inferences conducted on the 39 empirical datasets used in our study. We find that, using the best-fit nucleotide substitution model may change the final ML tree topology compared to an inference under a default GTR model. The effect is less pronounced when comparing distinct information criteria. Nonetheless, in some cases we did obtain substantial topological differences.

A comparison of major petroleum life cycle models | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many organizations have attempted to develop an accurate well-to-pump life cycle model of petroleum products in order to inform decision makers of the consequences of its use. Our paper studies five of these models, demonstrating the differences in their predictions and attempting to evaluate their data quality. Carbon dioxide well-to-pump emissions for gasoline showed a variation of 35 %, and other pollutants such as ammonia and particulate matter varied up to 100 %. Differences in allocation do not appear to explain differences in predictions. Effects of these deviations on well-to-wheels passenger vehicle and truck transportation life cycle models may be minimal for effects such as global warming potential (6 % spread), but for respiratory effects of criteria pollutants (41 % spread) and other impact categories, they can be significant. A data quality assessment of the models’ documentation revealed real differences between models in temporal and geographic representativeness, completeness, as well as transparency. Stakeholders may need to consider carefully the tradeoffs inherent when selecting a model to conduct life cycle assessments for systems that make heavy use of petroleum products. This is a qualitative and quantitative comparison of petroleum LCA models intended for an expert audience interested in better understanding the data quality of existing petroleum life cycle models and the quantitative differences between these models.

Food insecurity affects school children's academic performance, weight gain, and social skills.

PubMed

Jyoti, Diana F; Frongillo, Edward A; Jones, Sonya J

2005-12-01

Food insecurity has been associated with diverse developmental consequences for U.S. children primarily from cross-sectional studies. We used longitudinal data to investigate how food insecurity over time related to changes in reading and mathematics test performance, weight and BMI, and social skills in children. Data were from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort, a prospective sample of approximately 21,000 nationally representative children entering kindergarten in 1998 and followed through 3rd grade. Food insecurity was measured by parent interview using a modification of the USDA module in which households were classified as food insecure if they reported > or =1 affirmative response in the past year. Households were grouped into 4 categories based on the temporal occurrence of food insecurity in kindergarten and 3rd grade. Children's academic performance, height, and weight were assessed directly. Children's social skills were reported by teachers. Analyses examined the effects of modified food insecurity on changes in child outcomes using lagged, dynamic, and difference (i.e., fixed-effects) models and controlling for child and household contextual variables. In lagged models, food insecurity was predictive of poor developmental trajectories in children before controlling for other variables. Food insecurity thus serves as an important marker for identifying children who fare worse in terms of subsequent development. In all models with controls, food insecurity was associated with outcomes, and associations differed by gender. This study provides the strongest empirical evidence to date that food insecurity is linked to specific developmental consequences for children, and that these consequences may be both nutritional and nonnutritional.

Assessing tinnitus and prospective tinnitus therapeutics using a psychophysical animal model.

PubMed

Bauer, C A; Brozoski, T J

2001-03-01

Subjective tinnitus is a common and often debilitating disorder that is difficult to study because it is a perceptual state without an objective stimulus correlate. Studying tinnitus in humans is further complicated by the heterogeneity of tinnitus quality, severity, and associated hearing loss. As a consequence, the pathophysiology of tinnitus is poorly understood and treatments are often unsuccessful. In the present study, an animal psychophysical model was developed to reflect several features of tinnitus observed in humans. Chronic tinnitus was induced in rats by a single intense unilateral exposure to noise. The tinnitus was measured using a psychophysical procedure, which required the animals to discriminate between auditory test stimuli consisting of tones, noise, and 0 dB. Tinnitus was indicated by a frequency-specific shift in discrimination functions with respect to control subjects not exposed to noise. The psychophysical consequences of the noise exposure were best explained by a tinnitus hypothesis and could not be explained easily by other consequences of noise exposure such as hearing loss. The qualitative features of the tinnitus were determined and related to the duration of noise exposure and the associated cochlear trauma. The tinnitus was found to persist and intensify over 17 months of testing. Finally, the tinnitus was reversibly attenuated by treatment with gabapentin, a GABA agonist. It was concluded that this model reflected several features of human tinnitus, such as its tonality and persistence, and could be useful as a screen for potential therapeutics as well as a tool to help unravel the pathophysiology of the disorder of phantom auditory perception.

Resource footprints and their ecosystem consequences

PubMed Central

Verones, Francesca; Moran, Daniel; Stadler, Konstantin; Kanemoto, Keiichiro; Wood, Richard

2017-01-01

A meaningful environmental impact analysis should go beyond the accounting of pressures from resource use and actually assess how resource demand affects ecosystems. The various currently available footprints of nations report the environmental pressures e.g. water use or pollutant emissions, driven by consumption. However, there have been limited attempts to assess the environmental consequences of these pressures. Ultimately, consequences, not pressures, should guide environmental policymaking. The newly released LC-Impact method demonstrates progress on the path to providing this missing link. Here we present “ecosystem impact footprints” in terms of the consequences for biodiversity and assess the differences in impact footprint results from MRIO-based pressure footprints. The new perspective reveals major changes in the relative contribution of nations to global footprints. Wealthy countries have high pressure footprints in lower-income countries but their impact footprints often have their origin in higher-income countries. This shift in perspective provides a different insight on where to focus policy responses to preserve biodiversity. PMID:28112168

Zinc: physiology, deficiency, and parenteral nutrition.

PubMed

Livingstone, Callum

2015-06-01

The essential trace element zinc (Zn) has a large number of physiologic roles, in particular being required for growth and functioning of the immune system. Adaptive mechanisms enable the body to maintain normal total body Zn status over a wide range of intakes, but deficiency can occur because of reduced absorption or increased gastrointestinal losses. Deficiency impairs physiologic processes, leading to clinical consequences that include failure to thrive, skin rash, and impaired wound healing. Mild deficiency that is not clinically overt may still cause nonspecific consequences, such as susceptibility to infection and poor growth. The plasma Zn concentration has poor sensitivity and specificity as a test of deficiency. Consequently, diagnosis of deficiency requires a combination of clinical assessment and biochemical tests. Patients receiving parenteral nutrition (PN) are susceptible to Zn deficiency and its consequences. Nutrition support teams should have a strategy for assessing Zn status and optimizing this by appropriate supplementation. Nutrition guidelines recommend generous Zn provision from the start of PN. This review covers the physiology of Zn, the consequences of its deficiency, and the assessment of its status, before discussing its role in PN. © 2015 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

Assessment of a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework as a practical tool to support marine planning.

PubMed

Stelzenmüller, V; Lee, J; Garnacho, E; Rogers, S I

2010-10-01

For the UK continental shelf we developed a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework to visualise relationships between cumulative human pressures, sensitive marine landscapes and landscape vulnerability, to assess the consequences of potential marine planning objectives, and to map uncertainty-related changes in management measures. Results revealed that the spatial assessment of footprints and intensities of human activities had more influence on landscape vulnerabilities than the type of landscape sensitivity measure used. We addressed questions regarding consequences of potential planning targets, and necessary management measures with spatially-explicit assessment of their consequences. We conclude that the BN-GIS framework is a practical tool allowing for the visualisation of relationships, the spatial assessment of uncertainty related to spatial management scenarios, the engagement of different stakeholder views, and enables a quick update of new spatial data and relationships. Ultimately, such BN-GIS based tools can support the decision-making process used in adaptive marine management. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Subgrid geoelectric field specification for GIC modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butala, M.; Grawe, M.; Kamalabadi, F.; Makela, J. J.

2017-12-01

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) result from surface geomagnetic field (ěc{B}) variation driven by space weather disturbances. For the most intense disturbances, the consequences can range from power grid instability to even widespread failure. Modeling GICs to assess vulnerability requires the specification of the surface geoelectric field (ěc{E}) at all spatial locations coincident with the electric power system. In this study, we investigate how to best reproduce ěc{E} given the available sparse, irregularly spaced magnetometer measurements of ěc{B} and suitable electromagnetic transfer functions (EMTFs) to transform the local ěc{B} to ěc{E}. The assessment is made against ground truth from publicly available ěc{E} measurements provided by the EarthScope magnetotelluric (MT) array, a set of 7 fixed and several transportable joint ěc{B} and ěc{E} sensors. The scope of this study spans several dimensions: geomagnetic disturbance intensity, spatial interpolation scheme, and EMTF type, i.e., 1-D models based on studies of local geology and 3-D models derived from the EarthScope MT data.

Using robust Bayesian network to estimate the residuals of fluoroquinolone antibiotic in soil.

PubMed

Li, Xuewen; Xie, Yunfeng; Li, Lianfa; Yang, Xunfeng; Wang, Ning; Wang, Jinfeng

2015-11-01

Prediction of antibiotic pollution and its consequences is difficult, due to the uncertainties and complexities associated with multiple related factors. This article employed domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) model to assess fluoroquinolone antibiotic (FQs) pollution in the soil of an intensive vegetable cultivation area. The results show: (1) The relationships between FQs pollution and contributory factors: Three factors (cultivation methods, crop rotations, and chicken manure types) were consistently identified as predictors in the topological structures of three FQs, indicating their importance in FQs pollution; deduced with domain knowledge, the cultivation methods are determined by the crop rotations, which require different nutrients (derived from the manure) according to different plant biomass. (2) The performance of BN model: The integrative robust Bayesian network model achieved the highest detection probability (pd) of high-risk and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area, since it incorporates domain knowledge and model uncertainty. Our encouraging findings have implications for the use of BN as a robust approach to assessment of FQs pollution and for informing decisions on appropriate remedial measures.

An improved version of the consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies, ESCAPE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukkonen, J.; Nikmo, J.; Riikonen, K.

2017-02-01

We present a refined version of a mathematical model called ESCAPE, "Expert System for Consequence Analysis and Preparing for Emergencies". The model has been designed for evaluating the releases of toxic and flammable gases into the atmosphere, their atmospheric dispersion and the effects on humans and the environment. We describe (i) the mathematical treatments of this model, (ii) a verification and evaluation of the model against selected experimental field data, and (iii) a new operational implementation of the model. The new mathematical treatments include state-of-the-art atmospheric vertical profiles and new submodels for dense gas and passive atmospheric dispersion. The model performance was first successfully verified using the data of the Thorney Island campaign, and then evaluated against the Desert Tortoise campaign. For the latter campaign, the geometric mean bias was 1.72 (this corresponds to an underprediction of approximately 70%) and 0.71 (overprediction of approximately 30%) for the concentration and the plume half-width, respectively. The geometric variance was <1.5 (this corresponds to an agreement that is better than a factor of two). These values can be considered to indicate a good agreement of predictions and data, in comparison to values evaluated for a range of other similar models. The model has also been adapted to be able to automatically use the real time predictions and forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM, "HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model". The operational implementation of the ESCAPE modelling system can be accessed anywhere using internet browsers, on laptop computers, tablets and mobile phones. The predicted results can be post-processed using geographic information systems. The model has already proved to be a useful tool of assessment for the needs of emergency response authorities in contingency planning.

RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2015-04-01

Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s), or the ERPG-2 concentration for atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances).

Can compensatory culling offset undesirable evolutionary consequences of trophy hunting?

PubMed

Mysterud, Atle; Bischof, Richard

2010-01-01

1. There is growing concern about the evolutionary consequences of human harvesting on phenotypic trait quality in wild populations. Undesirable consequences are especially likely with trophy hunting because of its strong bias for specific phenotypic trait values, such as large antlers in cervids and horns in bovids. Selective hunting can cause a decline in a trophy trait over time if it is heritable, thereby reducing the long-term sustainability of the activity itself. 2. How can we build a sustainable trophy hunting tradition without the negative trait-altering effects? We used an individual-based model to explore whether selective compensatory culling of 'low quality' individuals at an early life stage can facilitate sustainability, as suggested by information from managed game populations in eastern and central Europe. Our model was rooted in empirical data on red deer, where heritability of sexual ornaments has been confirmed and phenotypic quality can be assessed by antler size in individuals as young as 1 year. 3. Simulations showed that targeted culling of low-quality yearlings could counter the selective effects of trophy hunting on the distribution of the affected trait (e.g. antler or horn size) in prime-aged individuals. Assumptions of trait heritability and young-to-adult correlation were essential for compensation, but the model proved robust to various other assumptions and changes to input parameters. The simulation approach allowed us to verify responses as evolutionary changes in trait values rather than short-term consequences of altered age structure, density and viability selection. 4. We conclude that evolutionarily enlightened management may accommodate trophy hunting. This has far reaching implications as income from trophy hunting is often channelled into local conservation efforts and rural economies. As an essential follow-up, we recommend an analysis of the effects of trophy hunting in conjunction with compensatory culling on the phenotypic and underlying genetic variance of the trophy trait.

Automatic detection and severity measurement of eczema using image processing.

PubMed

Alam, Md Nafiul; Munia, Tamanna Tabassum Khan; Tavakolian, Kouhyar; Vasefi, Fartash; MacKinnon, Nick; Fazel-Rezai, Reza

2016-08-01

Chronic skin diseases like eczema may lead to severe health and financial consequences for patients if not detected and controlled early. Early measurement of disease severity, combined with a recommendation for skin protection and use of appropriate medication can prevent the disease from worsening. Current diagnosis can be costly and time-consuming. In this paper, an automatic eczema detection and severity measurement model are presented using modern image processing and computer algorithm. The system can successfully detect regions of eczema and classify the identified region as mild or severe based on image color and texture feature. Then the model automatically measures skin parameters used in the most common assessment tool called "Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI)," by computing eczema affected area score, eczema intensity score, and body region score of eczema allowing both patients and physicians to accurately assess the affected skin.

C-band radar observes water level change in swamp forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Zhong; Crane, Mike; Kwoun, Oh-Ig; Wells, Christopher J.; Rykhus, Russ

2005-01-01

Wetlands cover more than 4% of the Earth's land surface and interact with hydrologic, biogeochemical, and sediment transport processes that are fundamental in understanding ecological and climatic changes [Alsdorf et al, 2003; Prigent et al., 2001 ; Melack and Forsberg, 2000;Dunne et al., 1998]. Measurement of water level changes in wetlands, and consequently of changes in water storage capacity, provides a required input for hydrologic models, and is required to comprehensively assess flood hazards [e.g., Coe, 1998].

Organisms on the move: ecology and evolution of dispersal.

PubMed

Gibbs, Melanie; Saastamoinen, Marjo; Coulon, Aurélie; Stevens, Virginie M

2010-04-23

The symposium and workshop 'Organisms on the move: ecology and evolution of dispersal', held in Ghent (Belgium), 14-18 September 2009, brought together a wide range of researchers using empirical and modelling approaches to examine the dispersal process. This meeting provided an opportunity to assess how much cross-fertilization there has been between empiricists and theoreticians, to present novel insights on dispersal patterns in plants, animals and micro-organisms and to measure the progress made in examining the causes and consequences of dispersal.

Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.

2014-01-01

The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013) in this encyclopedia.

Rheology of Lava Flows on Europa and the Emergence of Cryovolcanic Domes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quick, Lynnae C.; Glaze, Lori S.; Baloga, Steve M.

2015-01-01

There is ample evidence that Europa is currently geologically active. Crater counts suggest that the surface is no more than 90 Myr old, and cryovolcanism may have played a role in resurfacing the satellite in recent geological times. Europa's surface exhibits many putative cryovolcanic features, and previous investigations have suggested that a number of domes imaged by the Galileo spacecraft may be volcanic in origin. Consequently, several Europa domes have been modeled as viscous effusions of cryolava. However, previous models for the formation of silicic domes on the terrestrial planets contain fundamental shortcomings. Many of these shortcomings have been alleviated in our new modeling approach, which warrants a re-assessment of the possibility of cryovolcanic domes on Europa.

ISDD: A computational model of particle sedimentation, diffusion and target cell dosimetry for in vitro toxicity studies

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The difficulty of directly measuring cellular dose is a significant obstacle to application of target tissue dosimetry for nanoparticle and microparticle toxicity assessment, particularly for in vitro systems. As a consequence, the target tissue paradigm for dosimetry and hazard assessment of nanoparticles has largely been ignored in favor of using metrics of exposure (e.g. μg particle/mL culture medium, particle surface area/mL, particle number/mL). We have developed a computational model of solution particokinetics (sedimentation, diffusion) and dosimetry for non-interacting spherical particles and their agglomerates in monolayer cell culture systems. Particle transport to cells is calculated by simultaneous solution of Stokes Law (sedimentation) and the Stokes-Einstein equation (diffusion). Results The In vitro Sedimentation, Diffusion and Dosimetry model (ISDD) was tested against measured transport rates or cellular doses for multiple sizes of polystyrene spheres (20-1100 nm), 35 nm amorphous silica, and large agglomerates of 30 nm iron oxide particles. Overall, without adjusting any parameters, model predicted cellular doses were in close agreement with the experimental data, differing from as little as 5% to as much as three-fold, but in most cases approximately two-fold, within the limits of the accuracy of the measurement systems. Applying the model, we generalize the effects of particle size, particle density, agglomeration state and agglomerate characteristics on target cell dosimetry in vitro. Conclusions Our results confirm our hypothesis that for liquid-based in vitro systems, the dose-rates and target cell doses for all particles are not equal; they can vary significantly, in direct contrast to the assumption of dose-equivalency implicit in the use of mass-based media concentrations as metrics of exposure for dose-response assessment. The difference between equivalent nominal media concentration exposures on a μg/mL basis and target cell doses on a particle surface area or number basis can be as high as three to six orders of magnitude. As a consequence, in vitro hazard assessments utilizing mass-based exposure metrics have inherently high errors where particle number or surface areas target cells doses are believed to drive response. The gold standard for particle dosimetry for in vitro nanotoxicology studies should be direct experimental measurement of the cellular content of the studied particle. However, where such measurements are impractical, unfeasible, and before such measurements become common, particle dosimetry models such as ISDD provide a valuable, immediately useful alternative, and eventually, an adjunct to such measurements. PMID:21118529

Sabotage at Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Purvis, James W.

1999-07-21

Recently there has been a noted worldwide increase in violent actions including attempted sabotage at nuclear power plants. Several organizations, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, have guidelines, recommendations, and formal threat- and risk-assessment processes for the protection of nuclear assets. Other examples are the former Defense Special Weapons Agency, which used a risk-assessment model to evaluate force-protection security requirements for terrorist incidents at DOD military bases. The US DOE uses a graded approach to protect its assets based on risk and vulnerability assessments. The Federal Aviation Administration and Federal Bureau of Investigationmore » conduct joint threat and vulnerability assessments on high-risk US airports. Several private companies under contract to government agencies use formal risk-assessment models and methods to identify security requirements. The purpose of this paper is to survey these methods and present an overview of all potential types of sabotage at nuclear power plants. The paper discusses emerging threats and current methods of choice for sabotage--especially vehicle bombs and chemical attacks. Potential consequences of sabotage acts, including economic and political; not just those that may result in unacceptable radiological exposure to the public, are also discussed. Applicability of risk-assessment methods and mitigation techniques are also presented.« less

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system.

PubMed

Hou, Xianlong; Hodges, Ben R; Feng, Dongyu; Liu, Qixiao

2017-03-15

As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)\\, Working Group 1, 1994: Modelling Results Relating Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations to Industrial Emissions (DB1009)

DOE Data Explorer

Enting, I. G.; Wigley, M. L.; Heimann, M.

1995-01-01

This database contains the results of various projections of the relation between future CO2 concentrations and future industrial emissions. These projections were contributed by groups from a number of countries as part of the scientific assessment for the report, "Radiative Forcing of Climate Change" (1994), issued by Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There were three types of calculations: (1) forward projections, calculating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from specified emissions scenarios; (2) inverse calculations, determining the emission rates that would be required to achieve stabilization of CO2 concentrations via specified pathways; (3) impulse response function calculations, required for determining Global Warming Potentials. The projections were extrapolations of global carbon cycle models from pre-industrial times (starting at 1765) to 2100 or 2200 A.D. There were two aspects to the exercise: (1) an assessment of the uncertainty due to uncertainties regarding the current carbon budget, and (2) an assessment of the uncertainties arising from differences between models. To separate these effects, a set of standard conditions was used to explore inter-model differences and then a series of sensitivity studies was used to explore the consequences of current uncertainties in the carbon cycle.

A Judgement Bias Test to Assess Affective State and Potential Therapeutics in a Rat Model of Chemotherapy-Induced Mucositis.

PubMed

George, Rebecca P; Barker, Timothy H; Lymn, Kerry A; Bigatton, Dylan A; Howarth, Gordon S; Whittaker, Alexandra L

2018-05-29

Chemotherapy-induced mucositis is an extremely painful condition that occurs in 40-60% of patients undergoing chemotherapy. As mucositis currently has no effective treatment, and due to the self-limiting nature of the condition, the major treatment aims are to manage symptoms and limit pain with significance placed on improving patient quality of life. Rodent models are frequently used in mucositis research. These investigations typically assess pathological outcomes, yet fail to include a measure of affective state; the key therapeutic goal. Assessment of cognitive biases is a novel approach to determining the affective state of animals. Consequently, this study aimed to validate a cognitive bias test through a judgement bias paradigm to measure affective state in a rat model of chemotherapy-induced intestinal mucositis. Rats with intestinal mucositis demonstrated a negative affective state, which was partially ameliorated by analgesic administration, whilst healthy rats showed an optimistic response. This study concluded that the judgement bias test was able to evaluate the emotional state of rats with chemotherapy-induced mucositis. These findings provide a foundation for future refinement to the experimental design associated with the animal model that will expedite successful transitioning of novel therapeutics to clinical practice, and also improve humane endpoint implementation.

A combined triggering-propagation modeling approach for the assessment of rainfall induced debris flow susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stancanelli, Laura Maria; Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino; Foti, Enrico

2017-07-01

Rainfall-induced shallow slides can evolve into debris flows that move rapidly downstream with devastating consequences. Mapping the susceptibility to debris flow is an important aid for risk mitigation. We propose a novel practical approach to derive debris flow inundation maps useful for susceptibility assessment, that is based on the integrated use of DEM-based spatially-distributed hydrological and slope stability models with debris flow propagation models. More specifically, the TRIGRS infiltration and infinite slope stability model and the FLO-2D model for the simulation of the related debris flow propagation and deposition are combined. An empirical instability-to-debris flow triggering threshold calibrated on the basis of observed events, is applied to link the two models and to accomplish the task of determining the amount of unstable mass that develops as a debris flow. Calibration of the proposed methodology is carried out based on real data of the debris flow event occurred on 1 October 2009, in the Peloritani mountains area (Italy). Model performance, assessed by receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) indexes, evidences fairly good reproduction of the observed event. Comparison with the performance of the traditional debris flow modeling procedure, in which sediment and water hydrographs are inputed as lumped at selected points on top of the streams, is also performed, in order to assess quantitatively the limitations of such commonly applied approach. Results show that the proposed method, besides of being more process-consistent than the traditional hydrograph-based approach, can potentially provide a more accurate simulation of debris-flow phenomena, in terms of spatial patterns of erosion and deposition as well on the quantification of mobilized volumes and depths, avoiding overestimation of debris flow triggering volume and, thus, of maximum inundation flow depths.

Development and Validation of an Instrument to Assess the Impact of Cyberbullying: The Cybervictimization Emotional Impact Scale.

PubMed

Elipe, Paz; Mora-Merchán, Joaquín A; Nacimiento, Lydia

2017-08-01

Cyberbullying is a phenomenon with important adverse consequences on victims. The emotional impact of this phenomenon has been well established. However, there is to date no instrument with good psychometric properties tested to assess such impact. The objective of this study was developing and testing the psychometric properties of an instrument to assess the emotional impact of cyberbullying: the "Cybervictimization Emotional Impact Scale, CVEIS." The sample included 1,016 Compulsory Secondary Education students (52.9 percent female) aged between 12 and 18 (M = 13.86, DT = 1.33) from three schools in southern Spain. The study used Confirmatory Factor Analyses to test the structure of the questionnaire and robustness of the scale. Internal consistency was also tested. The results supported the suitability of a three-factor model: active, depressed, and annoyed. This model showed an optimal adjustment, which was better than its competing models. It also demonstrated strong invariance among cybervictims and non-cybervictims and also among gender. The internal consistency of each factor, and the total scale, was also appropriate. The article concludes by discussing research and practical implications of the scale.

Proteomic approaches in cancer risk and response assessment.

PubMed

Petricoin, Emanuel F; Liotta, Lance A

2004-02-01

Proteomics is more than just a list-generating exercise where increases or decreases in protein expression are identified. Proteomic technologies will ultimately characterize information-flow through the protein circuitry that interconnects the extracellular microenvironment to the serum or plasma macroenvironment through intracellular signaling systems and their control of gene transcription. The nature of this information can be a cause or a consequence of disease processes and how patients respond to therapy. Analysis of human cancer as a model for how proteomics can have an impact at the bedside can take advantage of several promising new proteomic technologies. These technologies are being developed for early detection and risk assessment, therapeutic targeting and patient-tailored therapy.

A Simplified Model for Multiphase Leakage through Faults with Applications for CO2 Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, F. E.; Doster, F.

2017-12-01

In the context of geological CO2 storage, faults in the subsurface could affect storage security by acting as high permeability pathways which allow CO2 to flow upwards and away from the storage formation. To assess the likelihood of leakage through faults and the impacts faults might have on storage security numerical models are required. However, faults are complex geological features, usually consisting of a fault core surrounded by a highly fractured damage zone. A direct representation of these in a numerical model would require very fine grid resolution and would be computationally expensive. Here, we present the development of a reduced complexity model for fault flow using the vertically integrated formulation. This model captures the main features of the flow but does not require us to resolve the vertical dimension, nor the fault in the horizontal dimension, explicitly. It is thus less computationally expensive than full resolution models. Consequently, we can quickly model many realisations for parameter uncertainty studies of CO2 injection into faulted reservoirs. We develop the model based on explicitly simulating local 3D representations of faults for characteristic scenarios using the Matlab Reservoir Simulation Toolbox (MRST). We have assessed the impact of variables such as fault geometry, porosity and permeability on multiphase leakage rates.

Messages from teens on the big screen: smoking, drinking, and drug use in teen-centered films.

PubMed

Stern, Susannah R

2005-06-01

Smoking, drinking, and drug use endure as popular yet dangerous behaviors among American teenagers. Films have been cited as potential influences on teens' attitudes toward and initiation of substance use. Social cognitive theory suggests that teen viewers may be especially likely to learn from teen models who they perceive as similar, desirable, and attractive. Yet, to date, no studies systematically have analyzed teen characters in films to assess the frequency, nature, and experienced consequences of substance use depictions. Assessments of content are necessary precursors to effects studies because they can identify patterns of representations that warrant further examination. Accordingly, a content analysis of top grossing films from 1999, 2000, and 2001 was conducted. Overall, two-fifths of teen characters drank alcohol, one-sixth smoked cigarettes, and one-seventh used illicit drugs (N=146). Almost no differences existed between substance users and nonusers with regard to physical attractiveness, socioeconomic status (SES), virtuosity, or gender. Drinkers and drug users were unlikely to suffer any consequences--let alone negative consequences--in either the short or long term. Characters rarely were shown refusing offers to drink or do drugs, or regretting their substance usage. Girls were more likely than boys to be shown engaging in multiple substance use activities (e.g., smoking and drinking). Overall, recent teen-centered films may teach teen viewers that substance use is relatively common, mostly risk-free, and appropriate for anyone.

Alcohol expectancies and alcohol outcomes: effects of the use of protective behavioral strategies.

PubMed

Grazioli, Véronique S; Lewis, Melissa A; Garberson, Lisa A; Fossos-Wong, Nicole; Lee, Christine M; Larimer, Mary E

2015-05-01

Alcohol expectancies (AEs) are positively associated with drinking behaviors, whereas the use of protective behavioural strategies (PBS) is negatively related to alcohol outcomes among young adults. PBS have been shown to weaken relationships between some alcohol risk factors and alcohol outcomes. This study aimed to examine longitudinally the moderating effect of PBS on the relationships between AEs and alcohol outcomes among young adults. Participants (N = 188; 61.7% female) were U.S. young adults participating in a larger longitudinal study. Measures of PBS, AEs, alcohol use, and related consequences were used from the baseline and 12-month follow-up assessments. Negative binomial hurdle models found that PBS (total score) significantly moderated the relationship between positive AEs and consequences, such that among high school seniors endorsing higher positive AEs, those using more PBS in high school reported fewer negative consequences 1 year later. PBS (Manner of Drinking) also moderated the relationship between negative AEs and alcohol use, revealing the use of PBS in high school as having a protective function against later drinking among participants with high positive AEs. Last, PBS (Serious Harm Reduction) significantly moderated the associations between positive AEs and alcohol use and between negative AEs and consequences, such that participants with higher AEs and higher PBS use in high school were at greatest risk for drinking and experiencing negative consequences later. Overall, these findings suggest that PBS use may be protective by weakening relationships between positive AEs and alcohol outcomes. Limitations and future directions are discussed.

Operational models of infrastructure resilience.

PubMed

Alderson, David L; Brown, Gerald G; Carlyle, W Matthew

2015-04-01

We propose a definition of infrastructure resilience that is tied to the operation (or function) of an infrastructure as a system of interacting components and that can be objectively evaluated using quantitative models. Specifically, for any particular system, we use quantitative models of system operation to represent the decisions of an infrastructure operator who guides the behavior of the system as a whole, even in the presence of disruptions. Modeling infrastructure operation in this way makes it possible to systematically evaluate the consequences associated with the loss of infrastructure components, and leads to a precise notion of "operational resilience" that facilitates model verification, validation, and reproducible results. Using a simple example of a notional infrastructure, we demonstrate how to use these models for (1) assessing the operational resilience of an infrastructure system, (2) identifying critical vulnerabilities that threaten its continued function, and (3) advising policymakers on investments to improve resilience. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Integrated Modeling for the Assessment of Ecological Impacts of Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagen, S. C.; Lewis, G.; Bartel, R.; Batten, B.; Huang, W.; Morris, J.; Slinn, D. N.; Sparks, J.; Walters, L.; Wang, D.; Weishampel, J.; Yeh, G.

2010-12-01

Sea level rise (SLR) has the potential to affect a variety of coastal habitats with a myriad of deleterious ecological effects and to overwhelm human settlements along the coast. SLR should be given serious consideration when more than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of the coast. SLR effects will be felt along coastal beaches and in estuarine waters, with consequences to barrier islands, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, sand and mud flats, oyster reefs, and tidal and freshwater wetlands. Managers of these coastal resources must be aware of potential consequences of SLR and adjust their plans accordingly to protect and preserve the resources under their care. The Gulf Coast provides critical habitats for a majority of the commercially important species in the Gulf of Mexico, which depend on inshore waters for either permanent residence or nursery area. The ecosystem services provided by these coastal habitats are at risk from rising sea level. Our team will assess the risk to coasts and coastal habitats from SLR in a 5-year project. We will apply existing models of circulation and transport from the watershed to the sea. The ultimate prediction will be of sediment loadings to the estuary as a result of overland flow, shoreline and barrier island erosion, and salinity transport, all of which will be used to model the evolution of intertidal marshes (MEM II). Over the five-year course of our research we will be simulating hydrodynamics and transport for all three NERRS reserves, including: Apalachicola, Weeks Bay and Grand Bay. The project will result in products whereby managers will be able to assess marshes, oyster reefs, submerged aquatic vegetation, predict wetland stability and indentify restoration locations for marsh and oyster habitats. In addition, we will produce Decision Support tools that will enable managers to predict future coastal erosion rates for management-specified shorelines. Project outcomes will enable the management community to prioritize risk management strategies, reformulate set back requirements, improve guidelines for construction of breakwaters and other coastal infrastructure, and assess water resources impacts and protection needs.

Risky business: Addressing the consequences of predicting violence.

PubMed

Miller, Sarah L; Brodsky, Stanley L

2011-01-01

Despite major advances in the prediction of violence and risk management, risk evaluations are necessarily imperfect. This article focuses on the role of the evaluator in such assessments and addresses the consequences incurred by clinicians involved in conducting risk assessments. We discuss the risks of overpredicting and underpredicting violence with respect to how these risks can influence an evaluator's opinion. Then, we review how law and psychology inform the clinician's work. Finally, in response to the compelling tendency toward overprediction of violence, we propose a preliminary self-assessment guide as a method of examining influences on the evaluator in assessing violence risk.

Assessing Middle School Students' Knowledge of Conduct and Consequences and Their Behaviors regarding the Use of Social Networking Sites

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kite, Stacey L.; Gable, Robert; Filippelli, Lawrence

2010-01-01

Cyberbullying and threats of Internet predators, not to mention the enduring consequences of postings, may lead to dangerous, unspeakable consequences. Cyberbullying and threats of Internet predators through social networking sites and instant messaging programs are initiating numerous problems for parents, school administrators, and law…

49 CFR 241.15 - Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., or has caused death or injury, a penalty not to exceed $105,000 per violation may be assessed. Each... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance... OF UNITED STATES RAIL OPERATIONS § 241.15 Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance. (a) Any...

49 CFR 241.15 - Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

..., or has caused death or injury, a penalty not to exceed $105,000 per violation may be assessed. Each... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance... OF UNITED STATES RAIL OPERATIONS § 241.15 Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance. (a) Any...

49 CFR 241.15 - Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., or has caused death or injury, a penalty not to exceed $100,000 per violation may be assessed. Each... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance... OF UNITED STATES RAIL OPERATIONS § 241.15 Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance. (a) Any...

49 CFR 241.15 - Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

..., or has caused death or injury, a penalty not to exceed $105,000 per violation may be assessed. Each... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance... OF UNITED STATES RAIL OPERATIONS § 241.15 Penalties and other consequences for noncompliance. (a) Any...

Basic overview towards the assessment of landslide and subsidence risks along a geothermal pipeline network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astisiasari; Van Westen, Cees; Jetten, Victor; van der Meer, Freek; Rahmawati Hizbaron, Dyah

2017-12-01

An operating geothermal power plant consists of installation units that work systematically in a network. The pipeline network connects various engineering structures, e.g. well pads, separator, scrubber, and power station, in the process of transferring geothermal fluids to generate electricity. Besides, a pipeline infrastructure also delivers the brine back to earth, through the injection well-pads. Despite of its important functions, a geothermal pipeline may bear a threat to its vicinity through a pipeline failure. The pipeline can be impacted by perilous events like landslides, earthquakes, and subsidence. The pipeline failure itself may relate to physical deterioration over time, e.g. due to corrosion and fatigue. The geothermal reservoirs are usually located in mountainous areas that are associated with steep slopes, complex geology, and weathered soil. Geothermal areas record a noteworthy number of disasters, especially due to landslide and subsidence. Therefore, a proper multi-risk assessment along the geothermal pipeline is required, particularly for these two types of hazard. This is also to mention that the impact on human fatality and injury is not presently discussed here. This paper aims to give a basic overview on the existing approaches for the assessment of multi-risk assessment along geothermal pipelines. It delivers basic principles on the analysis of risks and its contributing variables, in order to model the loss consequences. By considering the loss consequences, as well as the alternatives for mitigation measures, the environmental safety in geothermal working area could be enforced.

Multi-model inference for incorporating trophic and climate uncertainty into stock assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ianelli, James; Holsman, Kirstin K.; Punt, André E.; Aydin, Kerim

2016-12-01

Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) approaches allow a broader and more extensive consideration of objectives than is typically possible with conventional single-species approaches. Ecosystem linkages may include trophic interactions and climate change effects on productivity for the relevant species within the system. Presently, models are evolving to include a comprehensive set of fishery and ecosystem information to address these broader management considerations. The increased scope of EBFM approaches is accompanied with a greater number of plausible models to describe the systems. This can lead to harvest recommendations and biological reference points that differ considerably among models. Model selection for projections (and specific catch recommendations) often occurs through a process that tends to adopt familiar, often simpler, models without considering those that incorporate more complex ecosystem information. Multi-model inference provides a framework that resolves this dilemma by providing a means of including information from alternative, often divergent models to inform biological reference points and possible catch consequences. We apply an example of this approach to data for three species of groundfish in the Bering Sea: walleye pollock, Pacific cod, and arrowtooth flounder using three models: 1) an age-structured "conventional" single-species model, 2) an age-structured single-species model with temperature-specific weight at age, and 3) a temperature-specific multi-species stock assessment model. The latter two approaches also include consideration of alternative future climate scenarios, adding another dimension to evaluate model projection uncertainty. We show how Bayesian model-averaging methods can be used to incorporate such trophic and climate information to broaden single-species stock assessments by using an EBFM approach that may better characterize uncertainty.

A Model for Diagnostics in Neurological Rehabilitation: An Answer to the Biopsychosocial Disease Consequence Model in Rehabilitation of Talo et al.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faby, S.

1998-01-01

Discusses the bio-psycho-social disease consequence model in rehabilitation and the model's development in the Finnish "Work Hardening Program for Chronic Pain." The theoretical background of the model is explained and the possibility of applying the model to other fields of rehabilitation is explored. (Author/CR)

An Examination of Three Models of the Relationships between Parental Attachments and Adolescents' Social Functioning and Depressive Symptoms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Yih-Lan

2008-01-01

Three models of attachment relationships--the hierarchy model, the integrative model and the independent model--were compared in order to elucidate which best described the relationship between attachments to fathers versus mothers and its developmental consequences among 1,289 eighth grade students in Taiwan. These consequences included…

The Assessment of African Swine Fever Virus Risk to Belgium Early 2014, using the Quick and Semiquantitative Pandora Screening Protocol.

PubMed

Roelandt, S; Van der Stede, Y; D'hondt, B; Koenen, F

2017-02-01

A risk assessment was organized during the early EU ASF outbreaks of early 2014 (February-April) and performed in cooperation with 15 Belgian and European experts on ASFV and its epidemiology in pigs/wild boar. African swine fever (ASF) is considered as one of the most dangerous infectious pig diseases, causing many outbreaks. Since the end of 2013 - early 2014, several outbreaks within the European Union (Lithuania, Poland, Estonia and Latvia) were reported to OIE, which prompted several risk assessments by (inter)national bodies and scientists. In this study, the open source, semiquantitative Pandora risk assessment tool was used for a quick overall screening of the risk posed by ASF to Belgium early 2014. A set of integrated risk scores was calculated within the Pandora framework. Experts scored the questions and uncertainty levels in the Pandora modules individually, after which the calculations were performed and averaged scores were used within pre-defined risk scales to define and visualize the ASF risk to Belgium. Emergence risk was considered low (Pandora score 0.29), while disease consequences were deemed high (0.93); the resulting multiplicative overall risk of ASFV for Belgium was low (0.27). The Belgian experts tended to give lower risk scores than the European experts, especially for entry risk and trade/public opinion consequences. These risk scores are further interpreted with a due consideration of the qualitative data in the expert remarks and of other ASF risk assessments. The results are similar to more extensive and elaborate risk assessment models/procedures which may require more time and resources. The Pandora tool allows sequential updates to monitor (rates of) increasing risk and provides information for risk managers to organize targeted control. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Cognitive and emotional factors associated with elective breast augmentation among young women.

PubMed

Moser, Stephanie E; Aiken, Leona S

2011-01-01

The purpose of this research was to propose and evaluate a psychosocial model of young women's intentions to obtain breast implants and the preparatory steps taken towards having breast implant surgery. The model integrated anticipated regret, descriptive norms and image norms from the media into the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). Focus groups (n = 58) informed development of measures of outcome expectancies, preparatory steps and normative influence. The model was tested and replicated among two samples of young women who had ever considered getting breast implants (n = 200, n = 152). Intentions and preparatory steps served as outcomes. Model constructs and outcomes were initially assessed; outcomes were re-assessed 11 weeks later. Evaluative attitudes and anticipated regret predicted intentions; in turn, intentions, along with descriptive norms, predicted subsequent preparatory steps. Perceived risk (susceptibility, severity) of negative medical consequences of breast implants predicted anticipated regret, which predicted evaluative attitudes. Intentions and preparatory steps exhibited interplay over time. This research provides the first comprehensive model predicting intentions and preparatory steps towards breast augmentation surgery. It supports the addition of anticipated regret to the TPB and suggests mutual influence between intentions and preparatory steps towards a final behavioural outcome.

The question of nonlinearity in the dose-response relation between particulate matter air pollution and mortality: can Akaike's Information Criterion be trusted to take the right turn?

PubMed

Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

2006-12-15

The shape of the dose-response relation between particulate matter air pollution and mortality is crucial for public health assessment, and departures of this relation from linearity could have important regulatory consequences. A number of investigators have studied the shape of the particulate matter-mortality dose-response relation and concluded that the relation could be adequately described by a linear model. Some of these researchers examined the hypothesis of linearity by comparing Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) values obtained under linear, piecewise linear, and spline alternative models. However, at the current time, the efficacy of the AIC in this context has not been assessed. The authors investigated AIC as a means of comparing competing dose-response models, using data from Cook County, Illinois, for the period 1987-2000. They found that if nonlinearities exist, the AIC is not always successful in detecting them. In a number of the scenarios considered, AIC was equivocal, picking the correct simulated dose-response model about half of the time. These findings suggest that further research into the shape of the dose-response relation using alternative model selection criteria may be warranted.

Osteotomy models - the current status on pain scoring and management in small rodents.

PubMed

Lang, Annemarie; Schulz, Anja; Ellinghaus, Agnes; Schmidt-Bleek, Katharina

2016-12-01

Fracture healing is a complex regeneration process which produces new bone tissue without scar formation. However, fracture healing disorders occur in approximately 10% of human patients and cause severe pain and reduced quality of life. Recently, the development of more standardized, sophisticated and commercially available osteosynthesis techniques reflecting clinical approaches has increased the use of small rodents such as rats and mice in bone healing research dramatically. Nevertheless, there is no standard for pain assessment, especially in these species, and consequently limited information regarding the welfare aspects of osteotomy models. Moreover, the selection of analgesics is restricted for osteotomy models since non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are known to affect the initial, inflammatory phase of bone healing. Therefore, opioids such as buprenorphine and tramadol are often used. However, dosage data in the literature are varied. Within this review, we clarify the background of osteotomy models, explain the current status and challenges of animal welfare assessment, and provide an example score sheet including model specific parameters. Furthermore, we summarize current refinement options and present a brief outlook on further 3R research. © The Author(s) 2016.

29 CFR 825.404 - Consequences for an employer when not paying the penalty assessment after a final order is issued.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Consequences for an employer when not paying the penalty assessment after a final order is issued. 825.404 Section 825.404 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) WAGE AND HOUR DIVISION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR OTHER LAWS THE FAMILY AND MEDICAL LEAVE ACT OF 1993...

Houston, We Have a Problem: Studying the SAS Education Value-Added Assessment System (EVAAS) from Teachers' Perspectives in the Houston Independent School District (HISD)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collins, Clarin

2012-01-01

This study examined the intended and unintended consequences associated with the Education Value-Added Assessment System (EVAAS) as perceived and experienced by teachers in the Houston Independent School District (HISD). To evaluate teacher effectiveness, HISD is using EVAAS for high-stakes consequences more than any other district or state in the…

Novel sensing technology in fall risk assessment in older adults: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sun, Ruopeng; Sosnoff, Jacob J

2018-01-16

Falls are a major health problem for older adults with significant physical and psychological consequences. A first step of successful fall prevention is to identify those at risk of falling. Recent advancement in sensing technology offers the possibility of objective, low-cost and easy-to-implement fall risk assessment. The objective of this systematic review is to assess the current state of sensing technology on providing objective fall risk assessment in older adults. A systematic review was conducted in accordance to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis statement (PRISMA). Twenty-two studies out of 855 articles were systematically identified and included in this review. Pertinent methodological features (sensing technique, assessment activities, outcome variables, and fall discrimination/prediction models) were extracted from each article. Four major sensing technologies (inertial sensors, video/depth camera, pressure sensing platform and laser sensing) were reported to provide accurate fall risk diagnostic in older adults. Steady state walking, static/dynamic balance, and functional mobility were used as the assessment activity. A diverse range of diagnostic accuracy across studies (47.9% - 100%) were reported, due to variation in measured kinematic/kinetic parameters and modelling techniques. A wide range of sensor technologies have been utilized in fall risk assessment in older adults. Overall, these devices have the potential to provide an accurate, inexpensive, and easy-to-implement fall risk assessment. However, the variation in measured parameters, assessment tools, sensor sites, movement tasks, and modelling techniques, precludes a firm conclusion on their ability to predict future falls. Future work is needed to determine a clinical meaningful and easy to interpret fall risk diagnosis utilizing sensing technology. Additionally, the gap between functional evaluation and user experience to technology should be addressed.

Inference in the Wild: A Framework for Human Situation Assessment and a Case Study of Air Combat.

PubMed

McAnally, Ken; Davey, Catherine; White, Daniel; Stimson, Murray; Mascaro, Steven; Korb, Kevin

2018-06-24

Situation awareness is a key construct in human factors and arises from a process of situation assessment (SA). SA comprises the perception of information, its integration with existing knowledge, the search for new information, and the prediction of the future state of the world, including the consequences of planned actions. Causal models implemented as Bayesian networks (BNs) are attractive for modeling all of these processes within a single, unified framework. We elicited declarative knowledge from two Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) fighter pilots about the information sources used in the identification (ID) of airborne entities and the causal relationships between these sources. This knowledge was represented in a BN (the declarative model) that was evaluated against the performance of 19 RAAF fighter pilots in a low-fidelity simulation. Pilot behavior was well predicted by a simple associative model (the behavioral model) with only three attributes of ID. Search for information by pilots was largely compensatory and was near-optimal with respect to the behavioral model. The average revision of beliefs in response to evidence was close to Bayesian, but there was substantial variability. Together, these results demonstrate the value of BNs for modeling human SA. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Causal Models of Role Stressor Antecedents and Consequences: The Importance of Occupational Differences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bacharach, Samuel; Bamberger, Peter

1992-01-01

Survey data from 215 nurses (10 male) and 430 civil engineers (10 female) supported the plausibility of occupation-specific models (positing direct paths between role stressors, antecedents, and consequences) compared to generic models. A weakness of generic models is the tendency to ignore differences in occupational structure and culture. (SK)

Underground structures increasing the intrinsic vulnerability of urban groundwater: Sensitivity analysis and development of an empirical law based on a groundwater age modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attard, Guillaume; Rossier, Yvan; Eisenlohr, Laurent

2017-09-01

In a previous paper published in Journal of Hydrology, it was shown that underground structures are responsible for a mixing process between shallow and deep groundwater that can favour the spreading of urban contamination. In this paper, the impact of underground structures on the intrinsic vulnerability of urban aquifers was investigated. A sensitivity analysis was performed using a 2D deterministic modelling approach based on the reservoir theory generalized to hydrodispersive systems to better understand this mixing phenomenon and the mixing affected zone (MAZ) caused by underground structures. It was shown that the maximal extent of the MAZ caused by an underground structure is reached approximately 20 years after construction. Consequently, underground structures represent a long-term threat for deep aquifer reservoirs. Regarding the construction process, draining operations have a major impact and favour large-scale mixing between shallow and deep groundwater. Consequently, dewatering should be reduced and enclosed as much as possible. The role played by underground structures' dimensions was assessed. The obstruction of the first aquifer layer caused by construction has the greatest influence on the MAZ. The cumulative impact of several underground structures was assessed. It was shown that the total MAZ area increases linearly with underground structures' density. The role played by materials' properties and hydraulic gradient were assessed. Hydraulic conductivity, anisotropy and porosity have the strongest influence on the development of MAZ. Finally, an empirical law was derived to estimate the MAZ caused by an underground structure in a bi-layered aquifer under unconfined conditions. This empirical law, based on the results of the sensitivity analysis developed in this paper, allows for the estimation of MAZ dimensions under known material properties and underground structure dimensions. This empirical law can help urban planners assess the area of influence of underground structures and protect urban strategic reservoirs.

Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO2 and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health

PubMed Central

Rao, Meenakshi; George, Linda A.; Shandas, Vivek; Rosenstiel, Todd N.

2017-01-01

Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO2 is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO2 observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO2 with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO2 and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO2, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO2 associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4–12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and −1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health. PMID:28698523

Consequences of Groundwater Development on Water Resources of Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotzoll, K.; Izuka, S. K.; El-Kadi, A. I.

2017-12-01

The availability of fresh groundwater for human use is limited by whether the impacts of withdrawals are deemed acceptable by community stakeholders and water-resource managers. Quantifying the island-wide hydrologic impacts of withdrawal—saltwater intrusion, water-table decline, and reduction of groundwater discharge to streams, nearshore environments and downgradient groundwater bodies—is thus a key step for assessing fresh groundwater availability in Hawai`i. Groundwater-flow models of the individual islands of Kaua`i, O`ahu, and Maui were constructed using MODFLOW 2005 with the Seawater-Intrusion Package (SWI2). Consistent model construction among the islands, calibration, and analysis were streamlined using Python scripts. Results of simulating historical withdrawals from Hawai`i's volcanic aquifers show that the types and magnitudes of impacts that can limit fresh groundwater availability vary among each islands' unique hydrogeologic settings. In high-permeability freshwater-lens aquifers, saltwater intrusion and reductions in coastal groundwater discharge are the principal consequences of withdrawals that can limit groundwater availability. In dike-impounded groundwater and thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers, reduced groundwater discharge to streams, water-table decline, or reduced flows to adjacent freshwater-lens aquifers can limit fresh groundwater availability. The numerical models are used to quantify and delineate the spatial distribution of these impacts for the three islands. The models were also used to examine how anticipated changes in groundwater recharge and withdrawals will affect fresh groundwater availability in the future.