Estimation of census and effective population sizes: the increasing usefulness of DNA-based approaches

Treesearch

Gordon Luikart; Nils Ryman; David A. Tallmon; Michael K. Schwartz; Fred W. Allendorf

2010-01-01

Population census size (NC) and effective population sizes (Ne) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both NC and Ne are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators...

Estimating Landholders’ Probability of Participating in a Stewardship Program, and the Implications for Spatial Conservation Priorities

PubMed Central

Adams, Vanessa M.; Pressey, Robert L.; Stoeckl, Natalie

2014-01-01

The need to integrate social and economic factors into conservation planning has become a focus of academic discussions and has important practical implications for the implementation of conservation areas, both private and public. We conducted a survey in the Daly Catchment, Northern Territory, to inform the design and implementation of a stewardship payment program. We used a choice model to estimate the likely level of participation in two legal arrangements - conservation covenants and management agreements - based on payment level and proportion of properties required to be managed. We then spatially predicted landholders’ probability of participating at the resolution of individual properties and incorporated these predictions into conservation planning software to examine the potential for the stewardship program to meet conservation objectives. We found that the properties that were least costly, per unit area, to manage were also the least likely to participate. This highlights a tension between planning for a cost-effective program and planning for a program that targets properties with the highest probability of participation. PMID:24892520

Estimating the Minimal Important Difference for the Western Ontario Rotator Cuff Index (WORC) in adults with shoulder pain associated with partial-thickness rotator cuff tears.

PubMed

Braun, Cordula; Handoll, Helen H

2018-06-01

Knowledge about Minimal Important Differences (MIDs) is essential for the interpretation of continuous outcomes, especially patient-reported outcome measures (PROMS). The aim of this study was to estimate the MID for the Western Ontario Rotator Cuff Index (WORC: score 0 (best) to 2100 (worst disability)) in adults with shoulder pain associated with partial-thickness rotator cuff tears, 'symptomatic PTTs', undergoing conservative treatment with physiotherapy. A prospectively-designed anchor-based MID analysis using data from a prospective prognostic study with a three-month follow-up conducted within an outpatient care setting in Germany. The MID was estimated using data from 64 adults with atraumatic symptomatic PTTs who underwent three months of conservative treatment with physiotherapy. The anchor was a seven-point Global Perceived Change (GPC) scale. Based on a definition of the MID being the threshold of "being (at least slightly) improved" with a probability nearest to 0.90 (i.e. 9 of 10 patients achieving the MID), the MID for the WORC was estimated as -300 for 'improved' shoulder-related disability in 9 out of 10 patients (95% CI 8 out of 10 patients to everyone) undergoing three months of exercise-based physiotherapy for symptomatic PTTs. This is the first published MID estimate for the WORC in adults with symptomatic PTTs of the rotator cuff undergoing typical treatment comprising conservative treatment with physiotherapy. The conceptual framework for interpretation facilitates its use in similar clinical contexts. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Landowner preferences for wetlands conservation programs in two Southern Ontario watersheds.

PubMed

Trenholm, Ryan; Haider, Wolfgang; Lantz, Van; Knowler, Duncan; Haegeli, Pascal

2017-09-15

Wetlands in the region of Southern Ontario, Canada have declined substantially from their historic area. Existing regulations and programs have not abated this decline. However, reversing this trend by protecting or restoring wetlands will increase the supply of important ecosystem services. In particular, these actions will contribute to moderating the impacts of extreme weather predicted to result from climate change as well as reducing phosphorous loads in Lake Erie and ensuing eutrophication. Since the majority of land in the region is privately owned, landowners can play an important role. Thus, we assessed landowner preferences for voluntary incentive-based wetlands conservation programs using separate choice experiments mailed to farm and non-farm landowners in the Grand River and Upper Thames River watersheds. Latent class models were separately estimated for the two data sets. Marginal willingness to accept, compensating surplus, and participation rates were estimated from the resulting models to gain insight into the financial compensation required by landowners and their potential participation. Many of the participating landowners appear willing to participate in wetlands conservation at reasonable cost, with more willing groups notably marked by past participation in incentive-based conservation programs. They generally favor wetlands conservation programs that divert smaller areas of land to wetlands conservation, target marginal agricultural land, use treed buffers to protect wetlands, offer technical help, and pay financial incentives. However, landowners appear reluctant to receive public recognition of their wetland conservation actions. Our results are of interest to natural resource managers designing or refining wetlands conservation programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An hp-adaptivity and error estimation for hyperbolic conservation laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bey, Kim S.

1995-01-01

This paper presents an hp-adaptive discontinuous Galerkin method for linear hyperbolic conservation laws. A priori and a posteriori error estimates are derived in mesh-dependent norms which reflect the dependence of the approximate solution on the element size (h) and the degree (p) of the local polynomial approximation. The a posteriori error estimate, based on the element residual method, provides bounds on the actual global error in the approximate solution. The adaptive strategy is designed to deliver an approximate solution with the specified level of error in three steps. The a posteriori estimate is used to assess the accuracy of a given approximate solution and the a priori estimate is used to predict the mesh refinements and polynomial enrichment needed to deliver the desired solution. Numerical examples demonstrate the reliability of the a posteriori error estimates and the effectiveness of the hp-adaptive strategy.

The problem of estimating recent genetic connectivity in a changing world.

PubMed

Samarasin, Pasan; Shuter, Brian J; Wright, Stephen I; Rodd, F Helen

2017-02-01

Accurate understanding of population connectivity is important to conservation because dispersal can play an important role in population dynamics, microevolution, and assessments of extirpation risk and population rescue. Genetic methods are increasingly used to infer population connectivity because advances in technology have made them more advantageous (e.g., cost effective) relative to ecological methods. Given the reductions in wildlife population connectivity since the Industrial Revolution and more recent drastic reductions from habitat loss, it is important to know the accuracy of and biases in genetic connectivity estimators when connectivity has declined recently. Using simulated data, we investigated the accuracy and bias of 2 common estimators of migration (movement of individuals among populations) rate. We focused on the timing of the connectivity change and the magnitude of that change on the estimates of migration by using a coalescent-based method (Migrate-n) and a disequilibrium-based method (BayesAss). Contrary to expectations, when historically high connectivity had declined recently: (i) both methods over-estimated recent migration rates; (ii) the coalescent-based method (Migrate-n) provided better estimates of recent migration rate than the disequilibrium-based method (BayesAss); (iii) the coalescent-based method did not accurately reflect long-term genetic connectivity. Overall, our results highlight the problems with comparing coalescent and disequilibrium estimates to make inferences about the effects of recent landscape change on genetic connectivity among populations. We found that contrasting these 2 estimates to make inferences about genetic-connectivity changes over time could lead to inaccurate conclusions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

76 FR 51281 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products and Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-18

... savings are based on DOE estimates of the energy costs (derived from retail energy prices) paid directly... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 10 CFR Part 431 [Docket No. EERE-2010-BT-NOA-0028] RIN 1904-AC24 Energy... for Adopting Full-Fuel-Cycle Analyses Into Energy Conservation Standards Program AGENCY: Office of...

Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! Estimating cocaine production using a novel dataset based on reported seizures of laboratories in Colombia.

PubMed

Leoncini, Riccardo; Rentocchini, Francesco

2012-11-01

Data on the cocaine market appear inconsistent, as they tend to show declining prices vis-a-vis steady or increasing demand and a declining supply. This paper proposes an explanation for this trend by providing evidence of an under-estimation of the supply of cocaine. We propose a conservative estimate of cocaine production in Colombia for 2008, using data based on all reported seizures from 328 laboratories made by the counteracting organisations operating within the Colombian territory. Our conservative estimate of 935 tons from the seized laboratories is at least twice the estimate declared in official statistics of 295-450 tons. We are careful to keep all variables to their minimum boundary values. Our methodology could prove to be a useful tool, especially if used in parallel with the standard tools. Moreover, its characteristics (affordability, ease of use and potential for worldwide adoption) make it a powerful instrument to counteract cocaine production. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effective comparative analysis of protein-protein interaction networks by measuring the steady-state network flow using a Markov model.

PubMed

Jeong, Hyundoo; Qian, Xiaoning; Yoon, Byung-Jun

2016-10-06

Comparative analysis of protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks provides an effective means of detecting conserved functional network modules across different species. Such modules typically consist of orthologous proteins with conserved interactions, which can be exploited to computationally predict the modules through network comparison. In this work, we propose a novel probabilistic framework for comparing PPI networks and effectively predicting the correspondence between proteins, represented as network nodes, that belong to conserved functional modules across the given PPI networks. The basic idea is to estimate the steady-state network flow between nodes that belong to different PPI networks based on a Markov random walk model. The random walker is designed to make random moves to adjacent nodes within a PPI network as well as cross-network moves between potential orthologous nodes with high sequence similarity. Based on this Markov random walk model, we estimate the steady-state network flow - or the long-term relative frequency of the transitions that the random walker makes - between nodes in different PPI networks, which can be used as a probabilistic score measuring their potential correspondence. Subsequently, the estimated scores can be used for detecting orthologous proteins in conserved functional modules through network alignment. Through evaluations based on multiple real PPI networks, we demonstrate that the proposed scheme leads to improved alignment results that are biologically more meaningful at reduced computational cost, outperforming the current state-of-the-art algorithms. The source code and datasets can be downloaded from http://www.ece.tamu.edu/~bjyoon/CUFID .

Setting population targets for mammals using body mass as a predictor of population persistence.

PubMed

Hilbers, Jelle P; Santini, Luca; Visconti, Piero; Schipper, Aafke M; Pinto, Cecilia; Rondinini, Carlo; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2017-04-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity assessments need quantitative targets to optimize planning options and assess the adequacy of current species protection. However, targets aiming at persistence require population-specific data, which limit their use in favor of fixed and nonspecific targets, likely leading to unequal distribution of conservation efforts among species. We devised a method to derive equitable population targets; that is, quantitative targets of population size that ensure equal probabilities of persistence across a set of species and that can be easily inferred from species-specific traits. In our method, we used models of population dynamics across a range of life-history traits related to species' body mass to estimate minimum viable population targets. We applied our method to a range of body masses of mammals, from 2 g to 3825 kg. The minimum viable population targets decreased asymptotically with increasing body mass and were on the same order of magnitude as minimum viable population estimates from species- and context-specific studies. Our approach provides a compromise between pragmatic, nonspecific population targets and detailed context-specific estimates of population viability for which only limited data are available. It enables a first estimation of species-specific population targets based on a readily available trait and thus allows setting equitable targets for population persistence in large-scale and multispecies conservation assessments and planning. © 2016 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density.

PubMed

Elliot, Nicholas B; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2017-08-01

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3-month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture-recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km 2 , and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

The importance of incorporating functional habitats into conservation planning for highly mobile species in dynamic systems.

PubMed

Webb, Matthew H; Terauds, Aleks; Tulloch, Ayesha; Bell, Phil; Stojanovic, Dejan; Heinsohn, Robert

2017-10-01

The distribution of mobile species in dynamic systems can vary greatly over time and space. Estimating their population size and geographic range can be problematic and affect the accuracy of conservation assessments. Scarce data on mobile species and the resources they need can also limit the type of analytical approaches available to derive such estimates. We quantified change in availability and use of key ecological resources required for breeding for a critically endangered nomadic habitat specialist, the Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor). We compared estimates of occupied habitat derived from dynamic presence-background (i.e., presence-only data) climatic models with estimates derived from dynamic occupancy models that included a direct measure of food availability. We then compared estimates that incorporate fine-resolution spatial data on the availability of key ecological resources (i.e., functional habitats) with more common approaches that focus on broader climatic suitability or vegetation cover (due to the absence of fine-resolution data). The occupancy models produced significantly (P < 0.001) smaller (up to an order of magnitude) and more spatially discrete estimates of the total occupied area than climate-based models. The spatial location and extent of the total area occupied with the occupancy models was highly variable between years (131 and 1498 km 2 ). Estimates accounting for the area of functional habitats were significantly smaller (2-58% [SD 16]) than estimates based only on the total area occupied. An increase or decrease in the area of one functional habitat (foraging or nesting) did not necessarily correspond to an increase or decrease in the other. Thus, an increase in the extent of occupied area may not equate to improved habitat quality or function. We argue these patterns are typical for mobile resource specialists but often go unnoticed because of limited data over relevant spatial and temporal scales and lack of spatial data on the availability of key resources. Understanding changes in the relative availability of functional habitats is crucial to informing conservation planning and accurately assessing extinction risk for mobile resource specialists. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

76 FR 38144 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products; Decision and Order Granting a Waiver to BSH...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-29

... measuring energy and water consumption. DATES: This Decision and Order is effective June 29, 2011. FOR... and water based on an estimate that at least 50% of homes already have a water softening system. BSH... Conservation Program for Consumer Products; Decision and Order Granting a Waiver to BSH Corporation From the...

Comparing process-based breach models for earthen embankments subjected to internal erosion

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predicting the potential flooding from a dam site requires prediction of outflow resulting from breach. Conservative estimates from the assumption of instantaneous breach or from an upper envelope of historical cases are readily computed, but these estimates do not reflect the properties of a speci...

Measuring the effectiveness of conservation: a novel framework to quantify the benefits of sage-grouse conservation policy and easements in Wyoming.

PubMed

Copeland, Holly E; Pocewicz, Amy; Naugle, David E; Griffiths, Tim; Keinath, Doug; Evans, Jeffrey; Platt, James

2013-01-01

Increasing energy and housing demands are impacting wildlife populations throughout western North America. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species known for its sensitivity to landscape-scale disturbance, inhabits the same low elevation sage-steppe in which much of this development is occurring. Wyoming has committed to maintain sage-grouse populations through conservation easements and policy changes that conserves high bird abundance "core" habitat and encourages development in less sensitive landscapes. In this study, we built new predictive models of oil and gas, wind, and residential development and applied build-out scenarios to simulate future development and measure the efficacy of conservation actions for maintaining sage-grouse populations. Our approach predicts sage-grouse population losses averted through conservation action and quantifies return on investment for different conservation strategies. We estimate that without conservation, sage-grouse populations in Wyoming will decrease under our long-term scenario by 14-29% (95% CI: 4-46%). However, a conservation strategy that includes the "core area" policy and $250 million in targeted easements could reduce these losses to 9-15% (95% CI: 3-32%), cutting anticipated losses by roughly half statewide and nearly two-thirds within sage-grouse core breeding areas. Core area policy is the single most important component, and targeted easements are complementary to the overall strategy. There is considerable uncertainty around the magnitude of our estimates; however, the relative benefit of different conservation scenarios remains comparable because potential biases and assumptions are consistently applied regardless of the strategy. There is early evidence based on a 40% reduction in leased hectares inside core areas that Wyoming policy is reducing potential for future fragmentation inside core areas. Our framework using build-out scenarios to anticipate species declines provides estimates that could be used by decision makers to determine if expected population losses warrant ESA listing.

Measuring the Effectiveness of Conservation: A Novel Framework to Quantify the Benefits of Sage-Grouse Conservation Policy and Easements in Wyoming

PubMed Central

Copeland, Holly E.; Pocewicz, Amy; Naugle, David E.; Griffiths, Tim; Keinath, Doug; Evans, Jeffrey; Platt, James

2013-01-01

Increasing energy and housing demands are impacting wildlife populations throughout western North America. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species known for its sensitivity to landscape-scale disturbance, inhabits the same low elevation sage-steppe in which much of this development is occurring. Wyoming has committed to maintain sage-grouse populations through conservation easements and policy changes that conserves high bird abundance “core” habitat and encourages development in less sensitive landscapes. In this study, we built new predictive models of oil and gas, wind, and residential development and applied build-out scenarios to simulate future development and measure the efficacy of conservation actions for maintaining sage-grouse populations. Our approach predicts sage-grouse population losses averted through conservation action and quantifies return on investment for different conservation strategies. We estimate that without conservation, sage-grouse populations in Wyoming will decrease under our long-term scenario by 14–29% (95% CI: 4–46%). However, a conservation strategy that includes the “core area” policy and $250 million in targeted easements could reduce these losses to 9–15% (95% CI: 3–32%), cutting anticipated losses by roughly half statewide and nearly two-thirds within sage-grouse core breeding areas. Core area policy is the single most important component, and targeted easements are complementary to the overall strategy. There is considerable uncertainty around the magnitude of our estimates; however, the relative benefit of different conservation scenarios remains comparable because potential biases and assumptions are consistently applied regardless of the strategy. There is early evidence based on a 40% reduction in leased hectares inside core areas that Wyoming policy is reducing potential for future fragmentation inside core areas. Our framework using build-out scenarios to anticipate species declines provides estimates that could be used by decision makers to determine if expected population losses warrant ESA listing. PMID:23826250

A Total Economic Valuation of Wetland Ecosystem Services: An Evidence from Jagadishpur Ramsar Site, Nepal

PubMed Central

Basnyat, Bijendra; Khanal, Rajendra; Gauli, Kalyan

2016-01-01

Wetlands are the most productive ecosystem and provide wide arrays of wetland ecosystems (goods and services) to the local communities in particular and global communities in general. However, management of the wetland often does not remain priority and recognized as the unproductive waste land mainly due to poor realization of the economic value of the wetlands. Taking this into account, the study estimated the total economic value of the Jagadishpur Reservoir taking into account direct, indirect, and nonuse value. The study prioritized six major values of the reservoir which include wetland goods consumption, tourism, irrigation, carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and conservation for future use (existence and option value). The study used market and nonmarket based valuation techniques to estimate total economic value of the reservoir. Household survey, focus group discussions, and interaction with the tourism entrepreneurs and district stakeholders were carried out to collect information. The study estimated the total annual economic value of the reservoir as NRs 94.5 million, where option/existence value remains main contributor followed by direct use value such as wetland goods and tourism and indirect use value, for example, carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and irrigation. The study reveals that the local communities gave high importance to the future use value and are willing to make investment for conservation and restoration of reservoir given its conservation significance. PMID:27830175

A Total Economic Valuation of Wetland Ecosystem Services: An Evidence from Jagadishpur Ramsar Site, Nepal.

PubMed

Baral, Sony; Basnyat, Bijendra; Khanal, Rajendra; Gauli, Kalyan

Wetlands are the most productive ecosystem and provide wide arrays of wetland ecosystems (goods and services) to the local communities in particular and global communities in general. However, management of the wetland often does not remain priority and recognized as the unproductive waste land mainly due to poor realization of the economic value of the wetlands. Taking this into account, the study estimated the total economic value of the Jagadishpur Reservoir taking into account direct, indirect, and nonuse value. The study prioritized six major values of the reservoir which include wetland goods consumption, tourism, irrigation, carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and conservation for future use (existence and option value). The study used market and nonmarket based valuation techniques to estimate total economic value of the reservoir. Household survey, focus group discussions, and interaction with the tourism entrepreneurs and district stakeholders were carried out to collect information. The study estimated the total annual economic value of the reservoir as NRs 94.5 million, where option/existence value remains main contributor followed by direct use value such as wetland goods and tourism and indirect use value, for example, carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and irrigation. The study reveals that the local communities gave high importance to the future use value and are willing to make investment for conservation and restoration of reservoir given its conservation significance.

Potential-scour assessments and estimates of scour depth using different techniques at selected bridge sites in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huizinga, Richard J.; Rydlund, Jr., Paul H.

2004-01-01

The evaluation of scour at bridges throughout the state of Missouri has been ongoing since 1991 in a cooperative effort by the U.S. Geological Survey and Missouri Department of Transportation. A variety of assessment methods have been used to identify bridges susceptible to scour and to estimate scour depths. A potential-scour assessment (Level 1) was used at 3,082 bridges to identify bridges that might be susceptible to scour. A rapid estimation method (Level 1+) was used to estimate contraction, pier, and abutment scour depths at 1,396 bridge sites to identify bridges that might be scour critical. A detailed hydraulic assessment (Level 2) was used to compute contraction, pier, and abutment scour depths at 398 bridges to determine which bridges are scour critical and would require further monitoring or application of scour countermeasures. The rapid estimation method (Level 1+) was designed to be a conservative estimator of scour depths compared to depths computed by a detailed hydraulic assessment (Level 2). Detailed hydraulic assessments were performed at 316 bridges that also had received a rapid estimation assessment, providing a broad data base to compare the two scour assessment methods. The scour depths computed by each of the two methods were compared for bridges that had similar discharges. For Missouri, the rapid estimation method (Level 1+) did not provide a reasonable conservative estimate of the detailed hydraulic assessment (Level 2) scour depths for contraction scour, but the discrepancy was the result of using different values for variables that were common to both of the assessment methods. The rapid estimation method (Level 1+) was a reasonable conservative estimator of the detailed hydraulic assessment (Level 2) scour depths for pier scour if the pier width is used for piers without footing exposure and the footing width is used for piers with footing exposure. Detailed hydraulic assessment (Level 2) scour depths were conservatively estimated by the rapid estimation method (Level 1+) for abutment scour, but there was substantial variability in the estimates and several substantial underestimations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lambie, F.W.; Yee, S.N.

The purpose of this and a previous project was to examine the feasibility of estimating intermediate grade uranium (0.01 to 0.05% U/sub 3/O/sub 8/) on the basis of existing, sparsely drilled holes. All data are from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming. DOE makes preliminary estimates of endowment by calculating an Average Area of Influence (AAI) based on densely drilled areas, multiplying that by the thickness of the mineralization and then dividing by a tonnage factor. The resulting tonnage of ore is then multiplied by the average grade of the interval to obtain the estimate of U/sub 3/O/sub 8/ tonnage.more » Total endowment is the sum of these values over all mineralized intervals in all wells in the area. In regions where wells are densely drilled and approximately regularly spaced this technique approaches the classical polygonal estimation technique used to estimate ore reserves and should be fairly reliable. The method is conservative because: (1) in sparsely drilled regions a large fraction of the area is not considered to contribute to endowment; (2) there is a bias created by the different distributions of point grades and mining block grades. A conservative approach may be justified for purposes of ore reserve estimation, where large investments may hinge on local forecasts. But for estimates of endowment over areas as large as 1/sup 0/ by 2/sup 0/ quadrangles, or the nation as a whole, errors in local predictions are not critical as long as they tend to cancel and a less conservative estimation approach may be justified.One candidate, developed for this study and described is called the contoured thickness technique. A comparison of estimates based on the contoured thickness approach with DOE calculations for five areas of Wyoming roll-fronts in the Powder River Basin is presented. The sensitivity of the technique to well density is examined and the question of predicting intermediate grade endowment from data on higher grades is discussed.« less

Analysis of conserved noncoding DNA in Drosophila reveals similar constraints in intergenic and intronic sequences.

PubMed

Bergman, C M; Kreitman, M

2001-08-01

Comparative genomic approaches to gene and cis-regulatory prediction are based on the principle that differential DNA sequence conservation reflects variation in functional constraint. Using this principle, we analyze noncoding sequence conservation in Drosophila for 40 loci with known or suspected cis-regulatory function encompassing >100 kb of DNA. We estimate the fraction of noncoding DNA conserved in both intergenic and intronic regions and describe the length distribution of ungapped conserved noncoding blocks. On average, 22%-26% of noncoding sequences surveyed are conserved in Drosophila, with median block length approximately 19 bp. We show that point substitution in conserved noncoding blocks exhibits transition bias as well as lineage effects in base composition, and occurs more than an order of magnitude more frequently than insertion/deletion (indel) substitution. Overall, patterns of noncoding DNA structure and evolution differ remarkably little between intergenic and intronic conserved blocks, suggesting that the effects of transcription per se contribute minimally to the constraints operating on these sequences. The results of this study have implications for the development of alignment and prediction algorithms specific to noncoding DNA, as well as for models of cis-regulatory DNA sequence evolution.

Competing conservation objectives for predators and prey: estimating killer whale prey requirements for Chinook salmon.

PubMed

Williams, Rob; Krkošek, Martin; Ashe, Erin; Branch, Trevor A; Clark, Steve; Hammond, Philip S; Hoyt, Erich; Noren, Dawn P; Rosen, David; Winship, Arliss

2011-01-01

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of marine resources attempts to conserve interacting species. In contrast to single-species fisheries management, EBM aims to identify and resolve conflicting objectives for different species. Such a conflict may be emerging in the northeastern Pacific for southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) and their primary prey, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Both species have at-risk conservation status and transboundary (Canada-US) ranges. We modeled individual killer whale prey requirements from feeding and growth records of captive killer whales and morphometric data from historic live-capture fishery and whaling records worldwide. The models, combined with caloric value of salmon, and demographic and diet data for wild killer whales, allow us to predict salmon quantities needed to maintain and recover this killer whale population, which numbered 87 individuals in 2009. Our analyses provide new information on cost of lactation and new parameter estimates for other killer whale populations globally. Prey requirements of southern resident killer whales are difficult to reconcile with fisheries and conservation objectives for Chinook salmon, because the number of fish required is large relative to annual returns and fishery catches. For instance, a U.S. recovery goal (2.3% annual population growth of killer whales over 28 years) implies a 75% increase in energetic requirements. Reducing salmon fisheries may serve as a temporary mitigation measure to allow time for management actions to improve salmon productivity to take effect. As ecosystem-based fishery management becomes more prevalent, trade-offs between conservation objectives for predators and prey will become increasingly necessary. Our approach offers scenarios to compare relative influence of various sources of uncertainty on the resulting consumption estimates to prioritise future research efforts, and a general approach for assessing the extent of conflict between conservation objectives for threatened or protected wildlife where the interaction between affected species can be quantified.

Competing Conservation Objectives for Predators and Prey: Estimating Killer Whale Prey Requirements for Chinook Salmon

PubMed Central

Williams, Rob; Krkošek, Martin; Ashe, Erin; Branch, Trevor A.; Clark, Steve; Hammond, Philip S.; Hoyt, Erich; Noren, Dawn P.; Rosen, David; Winship, Arliss

2011-01-01

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of marine resources attempts to conserve interacting species. In contrast to single-species fisheries management, EBM aims to identify and resolve conflicting objectives for different species. Such a conflict may be emerging in the northeastern Pacific for southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) and their primary prey, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Both species have at-risk conservation status and transboundary (Canada–US) ranges. We modeled individual killer whale prey requirements from feeding and growth records of captive killer whales and morphometric data from historic live-capture fishery and whaling records worldwide. The models, combined with caloric value of salmon, and demographic and diet data for wild killer whales, allow us to predict salmon quantities needed to maintain and recover this killer whale population, which numbered 87 individuals in 2009. Our analyses provide new information on cost of lactation and new parameter estimates for other killer whale populations globally. Prey requirements of southern resident killer whales are difficult to reconcile with fisheries and conservation objectives for Chinook salmon, because the number of fish required is large relative to annual returns and fishery catches. For instance, a U.S. recovery goal (2.3% annual population growth of killer whales over 28 years) implies a 75% increase in energetic requirements. Reducing salmon fisheries may serve as a temporary mitigation measure to allow time for management actions to improve salmon productivity to take effect. As ecosystem-based fishery management becomes more prevalent, trade-offs between conservation objectives for predators and prey will become increasingly necessary. Our approach offers scenarios to compare relative influence of various sources of uncertainty on the resulting consumption estimates to prioritise future research efforts, and a general approach for assessing the extent of conflict between conservation objectives for threatened or protected wildlife where the interaction between affected species can be quantified. PMID:22096495

Cost of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder diagnosis in Canada.

PubMed

Popova, Svetlana; Lange, Shannon; Burd, Larry; Chudley, Albert E; Clarren, Sterling K; Rehm, Jürgen

2013-01-01

Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) is underdiagnosed in Canada. The diagnosis of FASD is not simple and currently, the recommendation is that a comprehensive, multidisciplinary assessment of the individual be done. The purpose of this study was to estimate the annual cost of FASD diagnosis on Canadian society. The diagnostic process breakdown was based on recommendations from the Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder Canadian Guidelines for Diagnosis. The per person cost of diagnosis was calculated based on the number of hours (estimated based on expert opinion) required by each specialist involved in the diagnostic process. The average rate per hour for each respective specialist was estimated based on hourly costs across Canada. Based on the existing clinical capacity of all FASD multidisciplinary clinics in Canada, obtained from the 2005 and 2011 surveys conducted by the Canada Northwest FASD Research Network, the number of FASD cases diagnosed per year in Canada was estimated. The per person cost of FASD diagnosis was then applied to the number of cases diagnosed per year in Canada in order to calculated the overall annual cost. Using the most conservative approach, it was estimated that an FASD evaluation requires 32 to 47 hours for one individual to be screened, referred, admitted, and diagnosed with an FASD diagnosis, which results in a total cost of $3,110 to $4,570 per person. The total cost of FASD diagnostic services in Canada ranges from $3.6 to $5.2 million (lower estimate), up to $5.0 to $7.3 million (upper estimate) per year. As a result of using the most conservative approach, the cost of FASD diagnostic services presented in the current study is most likely underestimated. The reasons for this likelihood and the limitations of the study are discussed.

Beyond the swab: ecosystem sampling to understand the persistence of an amphibian pathogen.

PubMed

Mosher, Brittany A; Huyvaert, Kathryn P; Bailey, Larissa L

2018-06-02

Understanding the ecosystem-level persistence of pathogens is essential for predicting and measuring host-pathogen dynamics. However, this process is often masked, in part due to a reliance on host-based pathogen detection methods. The amphibian pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and B. salamandrivorans (Bsal) are pathogens of global conservation concern. Despite having free-living life stages, little is known about the distribution and persistence of these pathogens outside of their amphibian hosts. We combine historic amphibian monitoring data with contemporary host- and environment-based pathogen detection data to obtain estimates of Bd occurrence independent of amphibian host distributions. We also evaluate differences in filter- and swab-based detection probability and assess inferential differences arising from using different decision criteria used to classify samples as positive or negative. Water filtration-based detection probabilities were lower than those from swabs but were > 10%, and swab-based detection probabilities varied seasonally, declining in the early fall. The decision criterion used to classify samples as positive or negative was important; using a more liberal criterion yielded higher estimates of Bd occurrence than when a conservative criterion was used. Different covariates were important when using the liberal or conservative criterion in modeling Bd detection. We found evidence of long-term Bd persistence for several years after an amphibian host species of conservation concern, the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas), was last detected. Our work provides evidence of long-term Bd persistence in the ecosystem, and underscores the importance of environmental samples for understanding and mitigating disease-related threats to amphibian biodiversity.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Value of Nature-Based Recreation, Estimated via Social Media.

PubMed

Sonter, Laura J; Watson, Keri B; Wood, Spencer A; Ricketts, Taylor H

2016-01-01

Conserved lands provide multiple ecosystem services, including opportunities for nature-based recreation. Managing this service requires understanding the landscape attributes underpinning its provision, and how changes in land management affect its contribution to human wellbeing over time. However, evidence from both spatially explicit and temporally dynamic analyses is scarce, often due to data limitations. In this study, we investigated nature-based recreation within conserved lands in Vermont, USA. We used geotagged photographs uploaded to the photo-sharing website Flickr to quantify visits by in-state and out-of-state visitors, and we multiplied visits by mean trip expenditures to show that conserved lands contributed US $1.8 billion (US $0.18-20.2 at 95% confidence) to Vermont's tourism industry between 2007 and 2014. We found eight landscape attributes explained the pattern of visits to conserved lands; visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities for snow sports. Some of these attributes differed from those found in other locations, but all aligned with our understanding of recreation in Vermont. We also found that using temporally static models to inform conservation decisions may have perverse outcomes for nature-based recreation. For example, static models suggest conserved land with less forest cover receive more visits, but temporally dynamic models suggest clearing forests decreases, rather than increases, visits to these sites. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding both the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services for conservation decision-making.

Integrating occurrence and detectability patterns based on interview data: a case study for threatened mammals in Equatorial Guinea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martínez-Martí, Chele; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Royle, J. Andrew; Palazón, José A.; Calvo, José F.

2016-01-01

Occurrence models that account for imperfect detection of species are increasingly used for estimating geographical range, for determining species-landscape relations and to prioritize conservation actions worldwide. In 2010, we conducted a large-scale survey in Río Muni, the mainland territory of Equatorial Guinea, which aimed to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and detection of threatened mammals based on environmental covariates, and to identify priority areas for conservation. Interviews with hunters were designed to record presence/absence data of seven species (golden cat, leopard, forest elephant, forest buffalo, western gorilla, chimpanzee and mandrill) in 225 sites throughout the region. We fitted single season occupancy models and recently developed models which also include false positive errors (i.e. species detected in places where it actually does not occur), which should provide more accurate estimates for most species, which are susceptible to mis-identification. Golden cat and leopard had the lowest occurrence rates in the region, whereas primates had the highest rates. All species, except gorilla, were affected negatively by human settlements. The southern half of Río Muni showed the highest occurrence of the species studied, and conservation strategies for ensuring the persistence of threatened mammals should be focused on this area.

Integrating occurrence and detectability patterns based on interview data: a case study for threatened mammals in Equatorial Guinea.

PubMed

Martínez-Martí, Chele; Jiménez-Franco, María V; Royle, J Andrew; Palazón, José A; Calvo, José F

2016-09-26

Occurrence models that account for imperfect detection of species are increasingly used for estimating geographical range, for determining species-landscape relations and to prioritize conservation actions worldwide. In 2010, we conducted a large-scale survey in Río Muni, the mainland territory of Equatorial Guinea, which aimed to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and detection of threatened mammals based on environmental covariates, and to identify priority areas for conservation. Interviews with hunters were designed to record presence/absence data of seven species (golden cat, leopard, forest elephant, forest buffalo, western gorilla, chimpanzee and mandrill) in 225 sites throughout the region. We fitted single season occupancy models and recently developed models which also include false positive errors (i.e. species detected in places where it actually does not occur), which should provide more accurate estimates for most species, which are susceptible to mis-identification. Golden cat and leopard had the lowest occurrence rates in the region, whereas primates had the highest rates. All species, except gorilla, were affected negatively by human settlements. The southern half of Río Muni showed the highest occurrence of the species studied, and conservation strategies for ensuring the persistence of threatened mammals should be focused on this area.

Integrating occurrence and detectability patterns based on interview data: a case study for threatened mammals in Equatorial Guinea

PubMed Central

Martínez-Martí, Chele; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Royle, J. Andrew; Palazón, José A.; Calvo, José F.

2016-01-01

Occurrence models that account for imperfect detection of species are increasingly used for estimating geographical range, for determining species-landscape relations and to prioritize conservation actions worldwide. In 2010, we conducted a large-scale survey in Río Muni, the mainland territory of Equatorial Guinea, which aimed to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and detection of threatened mammals based on environmental covariates, and to identify priority areas for conservation. Interviews with hunters were designed to record presence/absence data of seven species (golden cat, leopard, forest elephant, forest buffalo, western gorilla, chimpanzee and mandrill) in 225 sites throughout the region. We fitted single season occupancy models and recently developed models which also include false positive errors (i.e. species detected in places where it actually does not occur), which should provide more accurate estimates for most species, which are susceptible to mis-identification. Golden cat and leopard had the lowest occurrence rates in the region, whereas primates had the highest rates. All species, except gorilla, were affected negatively by human settlements. The southern half of Río Muni showed the highest occurrence of the species studied, and conservation strategies for ensuring the persistence of threatened mammals should be focused on this area. PMID:27666671

Design and "As Flown" Radiation Environments for Materials in Low Earth Orbits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Altstatt, Richard L.; McWilliams, Brett; Koontz, Steven L.

2006-01-01

The design estimate for the materials for the International Space Station (ISS) specified in SSP 30512 was a conservative estimate. The environment dose was over estimated. The materials originally qualified for approximately 10-15 years are anticipated to be acceptable for periods of up to 20-30 years based on SSP-30512 or 40-60 years based on 2x SSP-30512. This viewgraph presentation shows charts and graphs that review the altitude, the solar minimum and maximum, and the radiation exposure of other satellite, among other graphics.

Estimating phosphorus availability for microbial growth in an emerging landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, S.K.; Cleveland, C.C.; Nemergut, D.R.; Reed, S.C.; King, A.J.; Sowell, P.

2011-01-01

Estimating phosphorus (P) availability is difficult—particularly in infertile soils such as those exposed after glacial recession—because standard P extraction methods may not mimic biological acquisition pathways. We developed an approach, based on microbial CO2 production kinetics and conserved carbon:phosphorus (C:P) ratios, to estimate the amount of P available for microbial growth in soils and compared this method to traditional, operationally-defined indicators of P availability. Along a primary succession gradient in the High Andes of Perú, P additions stimulated the growth-related (logistic) kinetics of glutamate mineralization in soils that had been deglaciated from 0 to 5 years suggesting that microbial growth was limited by soil P availability. We then used a logistic model to estimate the amount of C incorporated into biomass in P-limited soils, allowing us to estimate total microbial P uptake based on a conservative C:P ratio of 28:1 (mass:mass). Using this approach, we estimated that there was < 1 μg/g of microbial-available P in recently de-glaciated soils in both years of this study. These estimates fell well below estimates of available soil P obtained using traditional extraction procedures. Our results give both theoretical and practical insights into the kinetics of C and P utilization in young soils, as well as show changes in microbial P availability during early stages of soil development.

Impact of biology knowledge on the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

PubMed

Yokoi, Hiroki; Ijima, Hirotaka; Ohshimo, Seiji; Yokawa, Kotaro

2017-09-06

Population growth rate, which depends on several biological parameters, is valuable information for the conservation and management of pelagic sharks, such as blue and shortfin mako sharks. However, reported biological parameters for estimating the population growth rates of these sharks differ by sex and display large variability. To estimate the appropriate population growth rate and clarify relationships between growth rate and relevant biological parameters, we developed a two-sex age-structured matrix population model and estimated the population growth rate using combinations of biological parameters. We addressed elasticity analysis and clarified the population growth rate sensitivity. For the blue shark, the estimated median population growth rate was 0.384 with a range of minimum and maximum values of 0.195-0.533, whereas those values of the shortfin mako shark were 0.102 and 0.007-0.318, respectively. The maturity age of male sharks had the largest impact for blue sharks, whereas that of female sharks had the largest impact for shortfin mako sharks. Hypotheses for the survival process of sharks also had a large impact on the population growth rate estimation. Both shark maturity age and survival rate were based on ageing validation data, indicating the importance of validating the quality of these data for the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

Enhanced Engine Performance During Emergency Operation Using a Model-Based Engine Control Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Csank, Jeffrey T.; Connolly, Joseph W.

2016-01-01

This paper discusses the design and application of model-based engine control (MBEC) for use during emergency operation of the aircraft. The MBEC methodology is applied to the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40k (CMAPSS40k) and features an optimal tuner Kalman Filter (OTKF) to estimate unmeasured engine parameters, which can then be used for control. During an emergency scenario, normally-conservative engine operating limits may be relaxed to increase the performance of the engine and overall survivability of the aircraft; this comes at the cost of additional risk of an engine failure. The MBEC architecture offers the advantage of estimating key engine parameters that are not directly measureable. Estimating the unknown parameters allows for tighter control over these parameters, and on the level of risk the engine will operate at. This will allow the engine to achieve better performance than possible when operating to more conservative limits on a related, measurable parameter.

Enhanced Engine Performance During Emergency Operation Using a Model-Based Engine Control Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Csank, Jeffrey T.; Connolly, Joseph W.

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the design and application of model-based engine control (MBEC) for use during emergency operation of the aircraft. The MBEC methodology is applied to the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40,000 (CMAPSS40,000) and features an optimal tuner Kalman Filter (OTKF) to estimate unmeasured engine parameters, which can then be used for control. During an emergency scenario, normally-conservative engine operating limits may be relaxed to increase the performance of the engine and overall survivability of the aircraft; this comes at the cost of additional risk of an engine failure. The MBEC architecture offers the advantage of estimating key engine parameters that are not directly measureable. Estimating the unknown parameters allows for tighter control over these parameters, and on the level of risk the engine will operate at. This will allow the engine to achieve better performance than possible when operating to more conservative limits on a related, measurable parameter.

The science and economics of ex situ plant conservation.

PubMed

Li, De-Zhu; Pritchard, Hugh W

2009-11-01

Ex situ seed storage underpins global agriculture and food supplies and enables the conservation of thousands of wild species of plants within national and international facilities. As an insurance policy against extinction, ex situ seed conservation is estimated to cost as little as 1% of in situ conservation. The assumptions, costs, risks and scientific challenges associated with ex situ plant conservation depend on the species, the methods employed and the desired storage time. Recent, relatively widespread evidence of less than expected longevity at conventional seed bank temperatures, innovations in the cryopreservation of recalcitrant-seeded species and economic comparators provide compelling evidence that ultra-cold storage should be adopted for the long-term conservation of plants. Policy instruments, such as the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (2011-2020), should respond to the evidence base and promote the implementation of cryopreservation for both tropical and temperate plants.

Estimating the impacts of conservation on ecosystem services and poverty by integrating modeling and evaluation.

PubMed

Ferraro, Paul J; Hanauer, Merlin M; Miteva, Daniela A; Nelson, Joanna L; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K; Nolte, Christoph; Sims, Katharine R E

2015-06-16

Scholars have made great advances in modeling and mapping ecosystem services, and in assigning economic values to these services. This modeling and valuation scholarship is often disconnected from evidence about how actual conservation programs have affected ecosystem services, however. Without a stronger evidence base, decision makers find it difficult to use the insights from modeling and valuation to design effective policies and programs. To strengthen the evidence base, scholars have advanced our understanding of the causal pathways between conservation actions and environmental outcomes, but their studies measure impacts on imperfect proxies for ecosystem services (e.g., avoidance of deforestation). To be useful to decision makers, these impacts must be translated into changes in ecosystem services and values. To illustrate how this translation can be done, we estimated the impacts of protected areas in Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Thailand on carbon storage in forests. We found that protected areas in these conservation hotspots have stored at least an additional 1,000 Mt of CO2 in forests and have delivered ecosystem services worth at least $5 billion. This aggregate impact masks important spatial heterogeneity, however. Moreover, the spatial variability of impacts on carbon storage is the not the same as the spatial variability of impacts on avoided deforestation. These findings lead us to describe a research program that extends our framework to study other ecosystem services, to uncover the mechanisms by which ecosystem protection benefits humans, and to tie cost-benefit analyses to conservation planning so that we can obtain the greatest return on scarce conservation funds.

Estimating the impacts of conservation on ecosystem services and poverty by integrating modeling and evaluation

PubMed Central

Ferraro, Paul J.; Hanauer, Merlin M.; Miteva, Daniela A.; Nelson, Joanna L.; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.; Nolte, Christoph; Sims, Katharine R. E.

2015-01-01

Scholars have made great advances in modeling and mapping ecosystem services, and in assigning economic values to these services. This modeling and valuation scholarship is often disconnected from evidence about how actual conservation programs have affected ecosystem services, however. Without a stronger evidence base, decision makers find it difficult to use the insights from modeling and valuation to design effective policies and programs. To strengthen the evidence base, scholars have advanced our understanding of the causal pathways between conservation actions and environmental outcomes, but their studies measure impacts on imperfect proxies for ecosystem services (e.g., avoidance of deforestation). To be useful to decision makers, these impacts must be translated into changes in ecosystem services and values. To illustrate how this translation can be done, we estimated the impacts of protected areas in Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Thailand on carbon storage in forests. We found that protected areas in these conservation hotspots have stored at least an additional 1,000 Mt of CO2 in forests and have delivered ecosystem services worth at least $5 billion. This aggregate impact masks important spatial heterogeneity, however. Moreover, the spatial variability of impacts on carbon storage is the not the same as the spatial variability of impacts on avoided deforestation. These findings lead us to describe a research program that extends our framework to study other ecosystem services, to uncover the mechanisms by which ecosystem protection benefits humans, and to tie cost-benefit analyses to conservation planning so that we can obtain the greatest return on scarce conservation funds. PMID:26082549

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.

1997-01-01

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Public health impacts of ecosystem change in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Bauch, Simone C.; Birkenbach, Anna M.; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.; Sills, Erin O.

2015-01-01

The claim that nature delivers health benefits rests on a thin empirical evidence base. Even less evidence exists on how specific conservation policies affect multiple health outcomes. We address these gaps in knowledge by combining municipal-level panel data on diseases, public health services, climatic factors, demographics, conservation policies, and other drivers of land-use change in the Brazilian Amazon. To fully exploit this dataset, we estimate random-effects and quantile regression models of disease incidence. We find that malaria, acute respiratory infection (ARI), and diarrhea incidence are significantly and negatively correlated with the area under strict environmental protection. Results vary by disease for other types of protected areas (PAs), roads, and mining. The relationships between diseases and land-use change drivers also vary by quantile of the disease distribution. Conservation scenarios based on estimated regression results suggest that malaria, ARI, and diarrhea incidence would be reduced by expanding strict PAs, and malaria could be further reduced by restricting roads and mining. Although these relationships are complex, we conclude that interventions to preserve natural capital can deliver cobenefits by also increasing human (health) capital. PMID:26082548

Reserve selection with land market feedbacks.

PubMed

Butsic, Van; Lewis, David J; Radeloff, Volker C

2013-01-15

How to best site reserves is a leading question for conservation biologists. Recently, reserve selection has emphasized efficient conservation: maximizing conservation goals given the reality of limited conservation budgets, and this work indicates that land market can potentially undermine the conservation benefits of reserves by increasing property values and development probabilities near reserves. Here we propose a reserve selection methodology which optimizes conservation given both a budget constraint and land market feedbacks by using a combination of econometric models along with stochastic dynamic programming. We show that amenity based feedbacks can be accounted for in optimal reserve selection by choosing property price and land development models which exogenously estimate the effects of reserve establishment. In our empirical example, we use previously estimated models of land development and property prices to select parcels to maximize coarse woody debris along 16 lakes in Vilas County, WI, USA. Using each lake as an independent experiment, we find that including land market feedbacks in the reserve selection algorithm has only small effects on conservation efficacy. Likewise, we find that in our setting heuristic (minloss and maxgain) algorithms perform nearly as well as the optimal selection strategy. We emphasize that land market feedbacks can be included in optimal reserve selection; the extent to which this improves reserve placement will likely vary across landscapes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data estimation and prediction for natural resources public data

Treesearch

Hans T. Schreuder; Robin M. Reich

1998-01-01

A key product of both Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) of the USDA Forest Service and the Natural Resources Inventory (NRI) of the Natural Resources Conservation Service is a scientific data base that should be defensible in court. Multiple imputation procedures (MIPs) have been proposed both for missing value estimation and prediction of non-remeasured cells in...

Creating a stage-based deterministic PVA model - the western prairie fringed orchid [Exercise 12

Treesearch

Carolyn Hull Sieg; Rudy M. King; Fred Van Dyke

2003-01-01

Contemporary efforts to conserve populations and species often employ population viability analysis (PVA), a specific application of population modeling that estimates the effects of environmental and demographic processes on population growth rates. These models can also be used to estimate probabilities that a population will fall below a certain level. This...

Prioritizing sites for conservation based on similarity to historical baselines and feasibility of protection.

PubMed

Popejoy, Traci; Randklev, Charles R; Neeson, Thomas M; Vaughn, Caryn C

2018-05-08

The shifting baseline syndrome concept advocates for the use of historical knowledge to inform conservation baselines, but does not address the feasibility of restoring sites to those baselines. In many regions, conservation feasibility varies among sites due to differences in resource availability, statutory power, and land-owner participation. We use zooarchaeological records to identify a historical baseline of the freshwater mussel community's composition before Euro-American influence at a river-reach scale. We evaluate how the community reference position and the feasibility of conservation might enable identification of sites where conservation actions would preserve historically representative communities and be likely to succeed. We first present a conceptual model that incorporates community information and landscape factors to link the best conservation areas to potential cost and conservation benefits. Using fuzzy ordination, we identify modern mussel beds that are most like the historical baseline. We then quantify the housing density and land use near each reach to estimate feasibility of habitat restoration. Using our conceptual framework, we identify reaches that have high conservation value (i.e., reaches that contain the best mussel beds) and where restoration actions would be most likely to succeed. Reaches above Lake Belton in central Texas, U.S.A. were most similar in species composition and relative abundance to zooarchaeological sites. A subset of these mussel beds occurred in locations where conservation actions appear to be most feasible. This study demonstrates how to use zooarchaeological data (biodiversity data often readily available) and estimates of conservation feasibility to inform conservation priorities at a local spatial scale. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Characterizing spatial uncertainty when integrating social data in conservation planning.

PubMed

Lechner, A M; Raymond, C M; Adams, V M; Polyakov, M; Gordon, A; Rhodes, J R; Mills, M; Stein, A; Ives, C D; Lefroy, E C

2014-12-01

Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Integrating ecosystem services in terrestrial conservation planning.

PubMed

Yuan, Mei-Hua; Lo, Shang-Lien; Yang, Chih-Kai

2017-05-01

The purpose of this study is to estimate the benefits of ecosystem services for prioritization of land use conservation and to highlight the importance of ecosystem services by comparison between ecosystem service value and green GDP accounting. Based on land use pattern and benefit transfer method, this research estimated value of ecosystem services in Taiwan. Scientific information of land use and land cover change is accessed through multi-year satellite imagery moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), and geographic information system (GIS) technology. Combined with benefit transfer method, this research estimated the ecosystem service valuation of forest, grassland, cropland, wetland, water, and urban for the period of 2000 to 2015 in Taiwan. It is found that forest made the greatest contribution and the significant increasing area of wetland has huge potential benefit for environmental conservation in Taiwan. We recommend placing maintaining wetland ecosystem in Taiwan with higher priority. This research also compared ecosystem service value with natural capital consumption which would essentially facilitate policy makers to understand the relationship between benefits gained from natural capital and the loss from human-made capital.

Estimation of Soil Erosion Dynamics in the Koshi Basin Using GIS and Remote Sensing to Assess Priority Areas for Conservation

PubMed Central

Uddin, Kabir; Murthy, M. S. R.; Wahid, Shahriar M.; Matin, Mir A.

2016-01-01

High levels of water-induced erosion in the transboundary Himalayan river basins are contributing to substantial changes in basin hydrology and inundation. Basin-wide information on erosion dynamics is needed for conservation planning, but field-based studies are limited. This study used remote sensing (RS) data and a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the spatial distribution of soil erosion across the entire Koshi basin, to identify changes between 1990 and 2010, and to develop a conservation priority map. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was used in an ArcGIS environment with rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, cover-management, and support practice factors as primary parameters. The estimated annual erosion from the basin was around 40 million tonnes (40 million tonnes in 1990 and 42 million tonnes in 2010). The results were within the range of reported levels derived from isolated plot measurements and model estimates. Erosion risk was divided into eight classes from very low to extremely high and mapped to show the spatial pattern of soil erosion risk in the basin in 1990 and 2010. The erosion risk class remained unchanged between 1990 and 2010 in close to 87% of the study area, but increased over 9.0% of the area and decreased over 3.8%, indicating an overall worsening of the situation. Areas with a high and increasing risk of erosion were identified as priority areas for conservation. The study provides the first assessment of erosion dynamics at the basin level and provides a basis for identifying conservation priorities across the Koshi basin. The model has a good potential for application in similar river basins in the Himalayan region. PMID:26964039

Estimation of Soil Erosion Dynamics in the Koshi Basin Using GIS and Remote Sensing to Assess Priority Areas for Conservation.

PubMed

Uddin, Kabir; Murthy, M S R; Wahid, Shahriar M; Matin, Mir A

2016-01-01

High levels of water-induced erosion in the transboundary Himalayan river basins are contributing to substantial changes in basin hydrology and inundation. Basin-wide information on erosion dynamics is needed for conservation planning, but field-based studies are limited. This study used remote sensing (RS) data and a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the spatial distribution of soil erosion across the entire Koshi basin, to identify changes between 1990 and 2010, and to develop a conservation priority map. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was used in an ArcGIS environment with rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, cover-management, and support practice factors as primary parameters. The estimated annual erosion from the basin was around 40 million tonnes (40 million tonnes in 1990 and 42 million tonnes in 2010). The results were within the range of reported levels derived from isolated plot measurements and model estimates. Erosion risk was divided into eight classes from very low to extremely high and mapped to show the spatial pattern of soil erosion risk in the basin in 1990 and 2010. The erosion risk class remained unchanged between 1990 and 2010 in close to 87% of the study area, but increased over 9.0% of the area and decreased over 3.8%, indicating an overall worsening of the situation. Areas with a high and increasing risk of erosion were identified as priority areas for conservation. The study provides the first assessment of erosion dynamics at the basin level and provides a basis for identifying conservation priorities across the Koshi basin. The model has a good potential for application in similar river basins in the Himalayan region.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Value of Nature-Based Recreation, Estimated via Social Media

PubMed Central

Watson, Keri B.; Wood, Spencer A.; Ricketts, Taylor H.

2016-01-01

Conserved lands provide multiple ecosystem services, including opportunities for nature-based recreation. Managing this service requires understanding the landscape attributes underpinning its provision, and how changes in land management affect its contribution to human wellbeing over time. However, evidence from both spatially explicit and temporally dynamic analyses is scarce, often due to data limitations. In this study, we investigated nature-based recreation within conserved lands in Vermont, USA. We used geotagged photographs uploaded to the photo-sharing website Flickr to quantify visits by in-state and out-of-state visitors, and we multiplied visits by mean trip expenditures to show that conserved lands contributed US $1.8 billion (US $0.18–20.2 at 95% confidence) to Vermont’s tourism industry between 2007 and 2014. We found eight landscape attributes explained the pattern of visits to conserved lands; visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities for snow sports. Some of these attributes differed from those found in other locations, but all aligned with our understanding of recreation in Vermont. We also found that using temporally static models to inform conservation decisions may have perverse outcomes for nature-based recreation. For example, static models suggest conserved land with less forest cover receive more visits, but temporally dynamic models suggest clearing forests decreases, rather than increases, visits to these sites. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding both the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services for conservation decision-making. PMID:27611325

Abundance models improve spatial and temporal prioritization of conservation resources.

PubMed

Johnston, Alison; Fink, Daniel; Reynolds, Mark D; Hochachka, Wesley M; Sullivan, Brian L; Bruns, Nicholas E; Hallstein, Eric; Merrifield, Matt S; Matsumoto, Sandi; Kelling, Steve

2015-10-01

Conservation prioritization requires knowledge about organism distribution and density. This information is often inferred from models that estimate the probability of species occurrence rather than from models that estimate species abundance, because abundance data are harder to obtain and model. However, occurrence and abundance may not display similar patterns and therefore development of robust, scalable, abundance models is critical to ensuring that scarce conservation resources are applied where they can have the greatest benefits. Motivated by a dynamic land conservation program, we develop and assess a general method for modeling relative abundance using citizen science monitoring data. Weekly estimates of relative abundance and occurrence were compared for prioritizing times and locations of conservation actions for migratory waterbird species in California, USA. We found that abundance estimates consistently provided better rankings of observed counts than occurrence estimates. Additionally, the relationship between abundance and occurrence was nonlinear and varied by species and season. Across species, locations prioritized by occurrence models had only 10-58% overlap with locations prioritized by abundance models, highlighting that occurrence models will not typically identify the locations of highest abundance that are vital for conservation of populations.

[Local recurrence based on size after conservative surgery in breast cancer stage T1-T2. A population-based study].

PubMed

Martínez-Ramos, David; Fortea-Sanchis, Carlos; Escrig-Sos, Javier; Prats-de Puig, Miguel; Queralt-Martín, Raquel; Salvador-Sanchis, José Luís

2014-01-01

Conservative surgery can be regarded as the standard treatment for most early stage breast tumors. However, a minority of patients treated with conservative surgery will present local or locoregional recurrence. Therefore, it is of interest to evaluate the possible factors associated with this recurrence. A population-based retrospective study using data from the Tumor Registry of Castellón (Valencia, Spain) of patients operated on for primary nonmetastatic breast cancer between January 2000 and December 2008 was designed. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank test to estimate 5-year local recurrence were used. Two groups of patients were defined, one with conservative surgery and another with nonconservative surgery. Cox multivariate analysis was conducted. The total number of patients was 410. Average local recurrence was 6.8%. In univariate analysis, only tumor size and lymph node involvement showed significant differences. On multivariate analysis, independent prognostic factors were conservative surgery (hazard ratio [HR] 4.62; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-16.82), number of positive lymph nodes (HR 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.17) and tumor size (in mm) (HR 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06). Local recurrence after breast-conserving surgery is higher in tumors >2 cm. Although tumor size should not be a contraindication for conservative surgery, it should be a risk factor to be considered.

Threatened species and the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity: conservation scenarios based on estimated extinction probabilities and phylogenetic risk analysis.

PubMed

Faith, Daniel P

2008-12-01

New species conservation strategies, including the EDGE of Existence (EDGE) program, have expanded threatened species assessments by integrating information about species' phylogenetic distinctiveness. Distinctiveness has been measured through simple scores that assign shared credit among species for evolutionary heritage represented by the deeper phylogenetic branches. A species with a high score combined with a high extinction probability receives high priority for conservation efforts. Simple hypothetical scenarios for phylogenetic trees and extinction probabilities demonstrate how such scoring approaches can provide inefficient priorities for conservation. An existing probabilistic framework derived from the phylogenetic diversity measure (PD) properly captures the idea of shared responsibility for the persistence of evolutionary history. It avoids static scores, takes into account the status of close relatives through their extinction probabilities, and allows for the necessary updating of priorities in light of changes in species threat status. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree illustrates how changes in extinction probabilities of one or more species translate into changes in expected PD. The probabilistic PD framework provided a range of strategies that moved beyond expected PD to better consider worst-case PD losses. In another example, risk aversion gave higher priority to a conservation program that provided a smaller, but less risky, gain in expected PD. The EDGE program could continue to promote a list of top species conservation priorities through application of probabilistic PD and simple estimates of current extinction probability. The list might be a dynamic one, with all the priority scores updated as extinction probabilities change. Results of recent studies suggest that estimation of extinction probabilities derived from the red list criteria linked to changes in species range sizes may provide estimated probabilities for many different species. Probabilistic PD provides a framework for single-species assessment that is well-integrated with a broader measurement of impacts on PD owing to climate change and other factors.

Forests of South Dakota, 2017

Treesearch

Charles S. Paulson; Dacia M. Meneguzzo

2018-01-01

This publication provides an overview of forest resources in South Dakota based on an inventory conducted by the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station (NRS) in cooperation with the South Dakota Department of Agriculture, Resource Conservation and Forestry Division. Estimates are based on field data collected...

A synthetic phylogeny of freshwater crayfish: insights for conservation.

PubMed

Owen, Christopher L; Bracken-Grissom, Heather; Stern, David; Crandall, Keith A

2015-02-19

Phylogenetic systematics is heading for a renaissance where we shift from considering our phylogenetic estimates as a static image in a published paper and taxonomies as a hardcopy checklist to treating both the phylogenetic estimate and dynamic taxonomies as metadata for further analyses. The Open Tree of Life project (opentreeoflife.org) is developing synthesis tools for harnessing the power of phylogenetic inference and robust taxonomy to develop a synthetic tree of life. We capitalize on this approach to estimate a synthesis tree for the freshwater crayfish. The crayfish make an exceptional group to demonstrate the utility of the synthesis approach, as there recently have been a number of phylogenetic studies on the crayfishes along with a robust underlying taxonomic framework. Importantly, the crayfish have also been extensively assessed by an IUCN Red List team and therefore have accurate and up-to-date area and conservation status data available for analysis within a phylogenetic context. Here, we develop a synthesis phylogeny for the world's freshwater crayfish and examine the phylogenetic distribution of threat. We also estimate a molecular phylogeny based on all available GenBank crayfish sequences and use this tree to estimate divergence times and test for divergence rate variation. Finally, we conduct EDGE and HEDGE analyses and identify a number of species of freshwater crayfish of highest priority in conservation efforts. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

A synthetic phylogeny of freshwater crayfish: insights for conservation

PubMed Central

Owen, Christopher L.; Bracken-Grissom, Heather; Stern, David; Crandall, Keith A.

2015-01-01

Phylogenetic systematics is heading for a renaissance where we shift from considering our phylogenetic estimates as a static image in a published paper and taxonomies as a hardcopy checklist to treating both the phylogenetic estimate and dynamic taxonomies as metadata for further analyses. The Open Tree of Life project (opentreeoflife.org) is developing synthesis tools for harnessing the power of phylogenetic inference and robust taxonomy to develop a synthetic tree of life. We capitalize on this approach to estimate a synthesis tree for the freshwater crayfish. The crayfish make an exceptional group to demonstrate the utility of the synthesis approach, as there recently have been a number of phylogenetic studies on the crayfishes along with a robust underlying taxonomic framework. Importantly, the crayfish have also been extensively assessed by an IUCN Red List team and therefore have accurate and up-to-date area and conservation status data available for analysis within a phylogenetic context. Here, we develop a synthesis phylogeny for the world's freshwater crayfish and examine the phylogenetic distribution of threat. We also estimate a molecular phylogeny based on all available GenBank crayfish sequences and use this tree to estimate divergence times and test for divergence rate variation. Finally, we conduct EDGE and HEDGE analyses and identify a number of species of freshwater crayfish of highest priority in conservation efforts. PMID:25561670

A currency for offsetting energy development impacts: horse-trading sage-grouse on the open market.

PubMed

Doherty, Kevin E; Naugle, David E; Evans, Jeffrey S

2010-04-28

Biodiversity offsets provide a mechanism to compensate for unavoidable damages from new energy development as the U.S. increases its domestic production. Proponents argue that offsets provide a partial solution for funding conservation while opponents contend the practice is flawed because offsets are negotiated without the science necessary to backup resulting decisions. Missing in negotiations is a biologically-based currency for estimating sufficiency of offsets and a framework for applying proceeds to maximize conservation benefits. Here we quantify a common currency for offsets for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) by estimating number of impacted birds at 4 levels of development commonly permitted. Impacts were indiscernible at 1-12 wells per 32.2 km(2). Above this threshold lek losses were 2-5 times greater inside than outside of development and bird abundance at remaining leks declined by -32 to -77%. Findings reiterated the importance of time-lags as evidenced by greater impacts 4 years after initial development. Clustering well locations enabled a few small leks to remain active inside of developments. Documented impacts relative to development intensity can be used to forecast biological trade-offs of newly proposed or ongoing developments, and when drilling is approved, anticipated bird declines form the biological currency for negotiating offsets. Monetary costs for offsets will be determined by true conservation cost to mitigate risks such as sagebrush tillage to other populations of equal or greater number. If this information is blended with landscape level conservation planning, the mitigation hierarchy can be improved by steering planned developments away from conservation priorities, ensuring compensatory mitigation projects deliver a higher return for conservation that equate to an equal number of birds in the highest priority areas, provide on-site mitigation recommendations, and provide a biologically based cost for mitigating unavoidable impacts.

Estimating climate resilience for conservation across geophysical settings.

PubMed

Anderson, Mark G; Clark, Melissa; Sheldon, Arlene Olivero

2014-08-01

Conservationists need methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every 405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high-scoring sites had the greatest resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their high-quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High-scoring sites captured significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations. Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies-for every geophysical setting-sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

Conservative Estimation of Whole-body Average SAR in Infant Model for 0.3-6GHz Far-Field Exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, Akimasa; Nagaya, Yoshio; Ito, Naoki; Fujiwara, Osamu; Nagaoka, Tomoaki; Watanabe, Soichi

From an anatomically-based Japanese model of three-year-old child with a resolution of 1 mm, we developed a nine-month Japanese infant with linear shrink. With these models, we calculated the whole-body average specific absorption rate (WBA-SAR) for plane-wave exposure from 0.1 to 6 GHz. A conservative estimate of the WBA-SAR was also investigated by using three kinds of simple-shaped models: cuboid, ellipsoid and spheroid, whose parameters were determined based on the above three-year-old child model. As a result, the cuboid and ellipsoid were found to provide an overestimate of the WBA-SAR compared to the realistic model, whereas the spheroid does an underestimate. Based on these findings for different body models, we have specified the incident power density required to produce WBA-SAR of 0.08 W/kg, which is the basic restriction for public exposure in the guidelines of International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection.

Evapotranspiration-based irrigation scheduling of lettuce and broccoli

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Estimation of crop evapotranspiration supports efficient irrigation water management, which in turn supports water conservation, mitigation of groundwater depletion/degradation, energy savings, and crop quality maintenance. Past research in California has revealed strong relationships between fract...

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

2008-01-01

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Household water use and conservation models using Monte Carlo techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, R.; Lund, J. R.; DeOreo, B.; Medellín-Azuara, J.

2013-04-01

The increased availability of water end use measurement studies allows for more mechanistic and detailed approaches to estimating household water demand and conservation potential. This study uses, probability distributions for parameters affecting water use estimated from end use studies and randomly sampled in Monte Carlo iterations to simulate water use in a single-family residential neighborhood. This model represents existing conditions and is calibrated to metered data. A two-stage mixed integer optimization model is then developed to estimate the least-cost combination of long- and short-term conservation actions for each household. This least-cost conservation model provides an estimate of the upper bound of reasonable conservation potential for varying pricing and rebate conditions. The models were adapted from previous work in Jordan and are applied to a neighborhood in San Ramon, California in eastern San Francisco Bay Area. The existing conditions model produces seasonal use results very close to the metered data. The least-cost conservation model suggests clothes washer rebates are among most cost-effective rebate programs for indoor uses. Retrofit of faucets and toilets is also cost effective and holds the highest potential for water savings from indoor uses. This mechanistic modeling approach can improve understanding of water demand and estimate cost-effectiveness of water conservation programs.

On the relationship between residue structural environment and sequence conservation in proteins.

PubMed

Liu, Jen-Wei; Lin, Jau-Ji; Cheng, Chih-Wen; Lin, Yu-Feng; Hwang, Jenn-Kang; Huang, Tsun-Tsao

2017-09-01

Residues that are crucial to protein function or structure are usually evolutionarily conserved. To identify the important residues in protein, sequence conservation is estimated, and current methods rely upon the unbiased collection of homologous sequences. Surprisingly, our previous studies have shown that the sequence conservation is closely correlated with the weighted contact number (WCN), a measure of packing density for residue's structural environment, calculated only based on the C α positions of a protein structure. Moreover, studies have shown that sequence conservation is correlated with environment-related structural properties calculated based on different protein substructures, such as a protein's all atoms, backbone atoms, side-chain atoms, or side-chain centroid. To know whether the C α atomic positions are adequate to show the relationship between residue environment and sequence conservation or not, here we compared C α atoms with other substructures in their contributions to the sequence conservation. Our results show that C α positions are substantially equivalent to the other substructures in calculations of various measures of residue environment. As a result, the overlapping contributions between C α atoms and the other substructures are high, yielding similar structure-conservation relationship. Take the WCN as an example, the average overlapping contribution to sequence conservation is 87% between C α and all-atom substructures. These results indicate that only C α atoms of a protein structure could reflect sequence conservation at the residue level. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Conservation buffer distance estimates for Greater Sage-Grouse: a review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manier, Daniel J.; Bowen, Zachary H.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Deibert, Patricia A.; Hanser, Steven E.; Johnson, Douglas H.

2014-01-01

Distances in this report reflect radii around lek locations because these locations are typically (although not universally) known, and management plans often refer to these locations. Lek sites are most representative of breeding habitats, but their locations are focal points within populations, and as such, protective buffers around lek sites can offer a useful solution for identifying and conserving seasonal habitats required by sage-grouse throughout their life cycle. However, knowledge of local and regional patterns of seasonal habitat use may improve conservation of those important areas, especially regarding the distribution and utilization of nonbreeding season habitats (which may be underrepresented in lek-based designations).

Forests of Missouri, 2013

Treesearch

Ronald J. Piva; Thomas B. Treiman

2014-01-01

This science update provides an overview of forest resources in Missouri based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation. Estimates are based on field data, collected using the FIA annualized sample design, for the...

Forests of South Dakota, 2013

Treesearch

Brian F. Walters

2014-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in South Dakota based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station in cooperation with the South Dakota Department of Agriculture, Resource Conservation and Forestry Division. Estimates are based on field data collected...

Forests of Missouri, 2015

Treesearch

Ronald J. Piva; Thomas B. Treiman

2016-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in Missouri based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation. Estimates are based on field data collected using the FIA annualized sample design and are updated...

Forests of South Dakota, 2016

Treesearch

Brian F. Walters

2017-01-01

This publication provides an overview of forest resources in South Dakota based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station (NRS) in cooperation with the South Dakota Department of Agriculture, Resource Conservation and Forestry Division. Estimates are based on field data collected...

Forests of South Dakota, 2015

Treesearch

Brian F. Walters

2016-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in South Dakota based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station (NRS) in cooperation with the South Dakota Department of Agriculture, Resource Conservation and Forestry Division. Estimates are based on field data...

Forests of Missouri, 2017

Treesearch

Thomas C. Goff

2018-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in Missouri based on an inventory conducted by the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation. Estimates are based on field data collected using the FIA annualized sample design and are updated...

Forests of Missouri, 2016

Treesearch

Ronald J. Piva; Thomas B. Treiman

2017-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in Missouri based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation. Estimates are based on field data collected using the FIA annualized sample design and are updated...

Forests of Missouri, 2014

Treesearch

Ronald J. Piva; Thomas B. Treiman

2015-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in Missouri based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station (NRS) in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation. Estimates are based on field data collected using the annualized sample design and are...

Forests of South Dakota, 2014

Treesearch

Brian F. Walters

2015-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in South Dakota based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station (NRS) in cooperation with the South Dakota Department of Agriculture, Resource Conservation and Forestry Division. Estimates are based on field data...

2014 Highlights of Ferry Operations in the United States

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-05-01

Based on information provided by operators who responded to the 2014 National Census of Ferry Operators (NCFO), the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) conservatively estimates that ferries in the United States carried just over 115 million pas...

Impacts of climate change on prioritizing conservation areas of hydrological ecosystem services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lien, Wan Yu; Lin, Yu Pin

2015-04-01

Ecosystem services (ESs) including hydrological services play important roles in our daily life and provide a lot of benefits for human beings from ecological systems. The systems and their services may be threatened by climate change from global to local scales. We herein developed a systematic approach to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological ecosystem services, such as water yield, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) retention, and soil retention in a watershed in Northern Taiwan. We first used an ecosystem service evaluation model, InVEST, to estimate the amount and spatial patterns of annual and monthly hydrological ecosystem services under historical weather data, and different climate change scenarios based on five GMSs. The monthly and annual spatiotemporal variations of the ESs were analyzed in this study. Finally, the multiple estimated ESs were considered as the protection conservation targets and regarded as the input data of the systematic conservation planning software, Zonation, to systematically prioritize reserve areas of the ESs under the climate change scenarios. The ES estimation results indicated that the increasing rainfall in wet season leads to the higher water yield and results in the higher sediment and nutrient export indirectly. The Zonation successfully fielded conservation priorities of the ESs. The conservation priorities of the ESs significantly varied spatially and monthly under the climate change scenarios. The ESs results also indicated that the areas where ESs values and conservation priorities with low resilience under climate change should be considered as high priority protected area to ensure the hydrological services in future. Our proposed approach is a novel systematic approach which can be applied to assess impacts of climate change on spatiotemporal variations of ESs as well as prioritize protected area of the ESs under various climate change scenarios. Keyword: climate change, ecosystem service, conservation planning, spatial analysis.

Nonprice incentives and energy conservation

PubMed Central

Asensio, Omar I.; Delmas, Magali A.

2015-01-01

In the electricity sector, energy conservation through technological and behavioral change is estimated to have a savings potential of 123 million metric tons of carbon per year, which represents 20% of US household direct emissions in the United States. In this article, we investigate the effectiveness of nonprice information strategies to motivate conservation behavior. We introduce environment and health-based messaging as a behavioral strategy to reduce energy use in the home and promote energy conservation. In a randomized controlled trial with real-time appliance-level energy metering, we find that environment and health-based information strategies, which communicate the environmental and public health externalities of electricity production, such as pounds of pollutants, childhood asthma, and cancer, outperform monetary savings information to drive behavioral change in the home. Environment and health-based information treatments motivated 8% energy savings versus control and were particularly effective on families with children, who achieved up to 19% energy savings. Our results are based on a panel of 3.4 million hourly appliance-level kilowatt–hour observations for 118 residences over 8 mo. We discuss the relative impacts of both cost-savings information and environmental health messaging strategies with residential consumers. PMID:25583494

Nonprice incentives and energy conservation.

PubMed

Asensio, Omar I; Delmas, Magali A

2015-02-10

In the electricity sector, energy conservation through technological and behavioral change is estimated to have a savings potential of 123 million metric tons of carbon per year, which represents 20% of US household direct emissions in the United States. In this article, we investigate the effectiveness of nonprice information strategies to motivate conservation behavior. We introduce environment and health-based messaging as a behavioral strategy to reduce energy use in the home and promote energy conservation. In a randomized controlled trial with real-time appliance-level energy metering, we find that environment and health-based information strategies, which communicate the environmental and public health externalities of electricity production, such as pounds of pollutants, childhood asthma, and cancer, outperform monetary savings information to drive behavioral change in the home. Environment and health-based information treatments motivated 8% energy savings versus control and were particularly effective on families with children, who achieved up to 19% energy savings. Our results are based on a panel of 3.4 million hourly appliance-level kilowatt-hour observations for 118 residences over 8 mo. We discuss the relative impacts of both cost-savings information and environmental health messaging strategies with residential consumers.

Emerging Evidence on the Effectiveness of Tropical Forest Conservation.

PubMed

Börner, Jan; Baylis, Kathy; Corbera, Esteve; Ezzine-de-Blas, Driss; Ferraro, Paul J; Honey-Rosés, Jordi; Lapeyre, Renaud; Persson, U Martin; Wunder, Sven

2016-01-01

The PLOS ONE Collection "Measuring forest conservation effectiveness" brings together a series of studies that evaluate the effectiveness of tropical forest conservation policies and programs with the goal of measuring conservation success and associated co-benefits. This overview piece describes the geographic and methodological scope of these studies, as well as the policy instruments covered in the Collection as of June 2016. Focusing on forest cover change, we systematically compare the conservation effects estimated by the studies and discuss them in the light of previous findings in the literature. Nine studies estimated that annual conservation impacts on forest cover were below one percent, with two exceptions in Mexico and Indonesia. Differences in effect sizes are not only driven by the choice of conservation measures. One key lesson from the studies is the need to move beyond the current scientific focus of estimating average effects of undifferentiated conservation programs. The specific elements of the program design and the implementation context are equally important factors for understanding the effectiveness of conservation programs. Particularly critical will be a better understanding of the causal mechanisms through which conservation programs have impacts. To achieve this understanding we need advances in both theory and methods.

Synthesis and assessment of date palm genetic diversity studies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A thorough assessment of genetic diversity and population differentiation of Phoenix dactylifera are critical for its dynamic conservation and sustainable utilization of its genetic diversity. Estimates of genetic diversity based on phenotypic, biochemical and molecular markers; and fruit quality tr...

Minimum viable populations: Is there a 'magic number' for conservation practitioners?

Treesearch

Curtis H. Flather; Gregory D. Hayward; Steven R. Beissinger; Philip A. Stephens

2011-01-01

Establishing species conservation priorities and recovery goals is often enhanced by extinction risk estimates. The need to set goals, even in data-deficient situations, has prompted researchers to ask whether general guidelines could replace individual estimates of extinction risk. To inform conservation policy, recent studies have revived the concept of the minimum...

A factory concept for processing and manufacturing with lunar material

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Driggers, G. W.

1977-01-01

A conceptual design for an orbital factory sized to process 1.5 million metric tons per year of raw lunar fines into 0.3 million metric tons of manufacturing materials is presented. A conservative approach involving application of present earth-based technology leads to a design devoid of new inventions. Earth based counterparts to the factory machinery were used to generate subsystem masses and lumped parameters for volume and mass estimates. The results are considered to be conservative since technologies more advanced than those assumed are presently available in many areas. Some attributes of potential space processing technologies applied to material refinement and component manufacture are discussed.

Evaluation of water conservation capacity of loess plateau typical mountain ecosystems based on InVEST model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Xizhi; Zuo, Zhongguo; Xiao, Peiqing

2017-06-01

With increasing demand for water resources and frequently a general deterioration of local water resources, water conservation by forests has received considerable attention in recent years. To evaluate water conservation capacities of different forest ecosystems in mountainous areas of Loess Plateau, the landscape of forests was divided into 18 types in Loess Plateau. Under the consideration of the factors such as climate, topography, plant, soil and land use, the water conservation of the forest ecosystems was estimated by means of InVEST model. The result showed that 486417.7 hm2 forests in typical mountain areas were divided into 18 forest types, and the total water conservation quantity was 1.64×1012m3, equaling an average of water conversation quantity of 9.09×1010m3. There is a great difference in average water conversation capacity among various forest types. The water conservation function and its evaluation is crucial and complicated issues in the study of ecological service function in modern times.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating the water quality benefits of conservation practices at the river basin scale.

PubMed

Santhi, C; Kannan, N; White, M; Di Luzio, M; Arnold, J G; Wang, X; Williams, J R

2014-01-01

The USDA initiated the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices at regional and national scales. For this assessment, a sampling and modeling approach is used. This paper provides a technical overview of the modeling approach used in CEAP cropland assessment to estimate the off-site water quality benefits of conservation practices using the Ohio River Basin (ORB) as an example. The modeling approach uses a farm-scale model, Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX), and a watershed scale model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT]) and databases in the Hydrologic Unit Modeling for the United States system. Databases of land use, soils, land use management, topography, weather, point sources, and atmospheric depositions were developed to derive model inputs. APEX simulates the cultivated cropland, Conserve Reserve Program land, and the practices implemented on them, whereas SWAT simulates the noncultivated land (e.g., pasture, range, urban, and forest) and point sources. Simulation results from APEX are input into SWAT. SWAT routes all sources, including APEX's, to the basin outlet through each eight-digit watershed. Each basin is calibrated for stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loads at multiple gaging sites and turned in for simulating the effects of conservation practice scenarios on water quality. Results indicate that sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads delivered to the Mississippi River from ORB could be reduced by 16, 15, and 23%, respectively, due to current conservation practices. Modeling tools are useful to provide science-based information for assessing existing conservation programs, developing future programs, and developing insights on load reductions necessary for hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Conservative Sample Size Determination for Repeated Measures Analysis of Covariance.

PubMed

Morgan, Timothy M; Case, L Douglas

2013-07-05

In the design of a randomized clinical trial with one pre and multiple post randomized assessments of the outcome variable, one needs to account for the repeated measures in determining the appropriate sample size. Unfortunately, one seldom has a good estimate of the variance of the outcome measure, let alone the correlations among the measurements over time. We show how sample sizes can be calculated by making conservative assumptions regarding the correlations for a variety of covariance structures. The most conservative choice for the correlation depends on the covariance structure and the number of repeated measures. In the absence of good estimates of the correlations, the sample size is often based on a two-sample t-test, making the 'ultra' conservative and unrealistic assumption that there are zero correlations between the baseline and follow-up measures while at the same time assuming there are perfect correlations between the follow-up measures. Compared to the case of taking a single measurement, substantial savings in sample size can be realized by accounting for the repeated measures, even with very conservative assumptions regarding the parameters of the assumed correlation matrix. Assuming compound symmetry, the sample size from the two-sample t-test calculation can be reduced at least 44%, 56%, and 61% for repeated measures analysis of covariance by taking 2, 3, and 4 follow-up measures, respectively. The results offer a rational basis for determining a fairly conservative, yet efficient, sample size for clinical trials with repeated measures and a baseline value.

Effectiveness of conservation easements in agricultural regions.

PubMed

Braza, Mark

2017-08-01

Conservation easements are a standard technique for preventing habitat loss, particularly in agricultural regions with extensive cropland cultivation, yet little is known about their effectiveness. I developed a spatial econometric approach to propensity-score matching and used the approach to estimate the amount of habitat loss prevented by a grassland conservation easement program of the U.S. federal government. I used a spatial autoregressive probit model to predict tract enrollment in the easement program as of 2001 based on tract agricultural suitability, habitat quality, and spatial interactions among neighboring tracts. Using the predicted values from the model, I matched enrolled tracts with similar unenrolled tracts to form a treatment group and a control group. To measure the program's impact on subsequent grassland loss, I estimated cropland cultivation rates for both groups in 2014 with a second spatial probit model. Between 2001 and 2014, approximately 14.9% of control tracts were cultivated and 0.3% of treated tracts were cultivated. Therefore, approximately 14.6% of the protected land would have been cultivated in the absence of the program. My results demonstrate that conservation easements can significantly reduce habitat loss in agricultural regions; however, the enrollment of tracts with low cropland suitability may constrain the amount of habitat loss they prevent. My results also show that spatial econometric models can improve the validity of control groups and thereby strengthen causal inferences about program effectiveness in situations when spatial interactions influence conservation decisions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Local Renyi entropic profiles of DNA sequences.

PubMed

Vinga, Susana; Almeida, Jonas S

2007-10-16

In a recent report the authors presented a new measure of continuous entropy for DNA sequences, which allows the estimation of their randomness level. The definition therein explored was based on the Rényi entropy of probability density estimation (pdf) using the Parzen's window method and applied to Chaos Game Representation/Universal Sequence Maps (CGR/USM). Subsequent work proposed a fractal pdf kernel as a more exact solution for the iterated map representation. This report extends the concepts of continuous entropy by defining DNA sequence entropic profiles using the new pdf estimations to refine the density estimation of motifs. The new methodology enables two results. On the one hand it shows that the entropic profiles are directly related with the statistical significance of motifs, allowing the study of under and over-representation of segments. On the other hand, by spanning the parameters of the kernel function it is possible to extract important information about the scale of each conserved DNA region. The computational applications, developed in Matlab m-code, the corresponding binary executables and additional material and examples are made publicly available at http://kdbio.inesc-id.pt/~svinga/ep/. The ability to detect local conservation from a scale-independent representation of symbolic sequences is particularly relevant for biological applications where conserved motifs occur in multiple, overlapping scales, with significant future applications in the recognition of foreign genomic material and inference of motif structures.

Local Renyi entropic profiles of DNA sequences

PubMed Central

Vinga, Susana; Almeida, Jonas S

2007-01-01

Background In a recent report the authors presented a new measure of continuous entropy for DNA sequences, which allows the estimation of their randomness level. The definition therein explored was based on the Rényi entropy of probability density estimation (pdf) using the Parzen's window method and applied to Chaos Game Representation/Universal Sequence Maps (CGR/USM). Subsequent work proposed a fractal pdf kernel as a more exact solution for the iterated map representation. This report extends the concepts of continuous entropy by defining DNA sequence entropic profiles using the new pdf estimations to refine the density estimation of motifs. Results The new methodology enables two results. On the one hand it shows that the entropic profiles are directly related with the statistical significance of motifs, allowing the study of under and over-representation of segments. On the other hand, by spanning the parameters of the kernel function it is possible to extract important information about the scale of each conserved DNA region. The computational applications, developed in Matlab m-code, the corresponding binary executables and additional material and examples are made publicly available at . Conclusion The ability to detect local conservation from a scale-independent representation of symbolic sequences is particularly relevant for biological applications where conserved motifs occur in multiple, overlapping scales, with significant future applications in the recognition of foreign genomic material and inference of motif structures. PMID:17939871

Influence of conservative corrections on parameter estimation for extreme-mass-ratio inspirals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerta, E. A.; Gair, Jonathan R.

2009-04-01

We present an improved numerical kludge waveform model for circular, equatorial extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs). The model is based on true Kerr geodesics, augmented by radiative self-force corrections derived from perturbative calculations, and in this paper for the first time we include conservative self-force corrections that we derive by comparison to post-Newtonian results. We present results of a Monte Carlo simulation of parameter estimation errors computed using the Fisher matrix and also assess the theoretical errors that would arise from omitting the conservative correction terms we include here. We present results for three different types of system, namely, the inspirals of black holes, neutron stars, or white dwarfs into a supermassive black hole (SMBH). The analysis shows that for a typical source (a 10M⊙ compact object captured by a 106M⊙ SMBH at a signal to noise ratio of 30) we expect to determine the two masses to within a fractional error of ˜10-4, measure the spin parameter q to ˜10-4.5, and determine the location of the source on the sky and the spin orientation to within 10-3 steradians. We show that, for this kludge model, omitting the conservative corrections leads to a small error over much of the parameter space, i.e., the ratio R of the theoretical model error to the Fisher matrix error is R<1 for all ten parameters in the model. For the few systems with larger errors typically R<3 and hence the conservative corrections can be marginally ignored. In addition, we use our model and first-order self-force results for Schwarzschild black holes to estimate the error that arises from omitting the second-order radiative piece of the self-force. This indicates that it may not be necessary to go beyond first order to recover accurate parameter estimates.

Tetrapods on the EDGE: Overcoming data limitations to identify phylogenetic conservation priorities

PubMed Central

Gray, Claudia L.; Wearn, Oliver R.; Owen, Nisha R.

2018-01-01

The scale of the ongoing biodiversity crisis requires both effective conservation prioritisation and urgent action. As extinction is non-random across the tree of life, it is important to prioritise threatened species which represent large amounts of evolutionary history. The EDGE metric prioritises species based on their Evolutionary Distinctiveness (ED), which measures the relative contribution of a species to the total evolutionary history of their taxonomic group, and Global Endangerment (GE), or extinction risk. EDGE prioritisations rely on adequate phylogenetic and extinction risk data to generate meaningful priorities for conservation. However, comprehensive phylogenetic trees of large taxonomic groups are extremely rare and, even when available, become quickly out-of-date due to the rapid rate of species descriptions and taxonomic revisions. Thus, it is important that conservationists can use the available data to incorporate evolutionary history into conservation prioritisation. We compared published and new methods to estimate missing ED scores for species absent from a phylogenetic tree whilst simultaneously correcting the ED scores of their close taxonomic relatives. We found that following artificial removal of species from a phylogenetic tree, the new method provided the closest estimates of their “true” ED score, differing from the true ED score by an average of less than 1%, compared to the 31% and 38% difference of the previous methods. The previous methods also substantially under- and over-estimated scores as more species were artificially removed from a phylogenetic tree. We therefore used the new method to estimate ED scores for all tetrapods. From these scores we updated EDGE prioritisation rankings for all tetrapod species with IUCN Red List assessments, including the first EDGE prioritisation for reptiles. Further, we identified criteria to identify robust priority species in an effort to further inform conservation action whilst limiting uncertainty and anticipating future phylogenetic advances. PMID:29641585

Agricultural and recreational impacts of the conservation reserve program in rural North Dakota, USA.

PubMed

Bangsund, Dean A; Hodur, Nancy M; Leistritz, F Larry

2004-07-01

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), created in 1985, provides conservation benefits and agricultural supply control through voluntary, long-term retirement of crop land. While the effects of the CRP on the agricultural sector are well understood, the implications of its conservation benefits for rural economies remain largely undocumented. To quantify the effects on rural economies, this study addressed the net economic effects of decreased agricultural activity and increased recreational activity associated with the CRP in six rural areas of North Dakota from 1996 to 2000. Based on the level of economic activity that would have occurred in the absence of the program, net revenues from CRP land if returned to agricultural production in the six study areas were estimated at $50.2 million annually or $37 per acre of land currently enrolled in the CRP. Recreational (hunting) revenues as a result of the CRP in the study areas were estimated at $12.8 million annually or $9.45 per CRP-acre. The net economic effect of the CRP (lost agricultural revenues and gains in recreational expenditures) indicated that several areas of the state are not as economically burdened by the CRP as previous research has suggested. In addition, the net economic effects of the program would appear more favourable if revenues from all CRP-based recreation were included. The degree that recreational revenues offset agricultural losses might be further enhanced by enterprises that capitalize on the economic opportunities associated with expanded recreational activities on CRP lands.

Estimating total population size for Songbirds

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart

2005-01-01

A conviction has developed during the past few years within the avian conservation community that estimates of total population size are needed for many species, especially ones that warrant conservation action. For example, the recently completed monitoring plans for North American shorebirds and landbirds establish estimating population size as a major objective....

Household water use and conservation models using Monte Carlo techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, R.; Lund, J. R.; DeOreo, B.; Medellín-Azuara, J.

2013-10-01

The increased availability of end use measurement studies allows for mechanistic and detailed approaches to estimating household water demand and conservation potential. This study simulates water use in a single-family residential neighborhood using end-water-use parameter probability distributions generated from Monte Carlo sampling. This model represents existing water use conditions in 2010 and is calibrated to 2006-2011 metered data. A two-stage mixed integer optimization model is then developed to estimate the least-cost combination of long- and short-term conservation actions for each household. This least-cost conservation model provides an estimate of the upper bound of reasonable conservation potential for varying pricing and rebate conditions. The models were adapted from previous work in Jordan and are applied to a neighborhood in San Ramon, California in the eastern San Francisco Bay Area. The existing conditions model produces seasonal use results very close to the metered data. The least-cost conservation model suggests clothes washer rebates are among most cost-effective rebate programs for indoor uses. Retrofit of faucets and toilets is also cost-effective and holds the highest potential for water savings from indoor uses. This mechanistic modeling approach can improve understanding of water demand and estimate cost-effectiveness of water conservation programs.

Relations for estimating unit-hydrograph parameters in New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, Scott D.

2001-01-01

Data collected from 20 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations, most of which were operated in New Mexico between about 1969 and 1977, were used to define hydrograph characteristics for small New Mexico streams. Drainage areas for the gaging stations ranged from 0.23 to 18.2 square miles. Observed values for the hydrograph characteristics were determined for 87 of the most significant rainfall-runoff events at these gaging stations and were used to define regional regression relations with basin characteristics. Regional relations defined lag time (tl), time of concentration (tc), and time to peak (tp) as functions of stream length and basin shape. The regional equation developed for time of concentration for New Mexico agrees well with the Kirpich equation developed for Tennessee. The Kirpich equation is based on stream length and channel slope, whereas the New Mexico equation is based on stream length and basin shape. Both equations, however, underestimate tc when applied to larger basins where tc is greater than about 2 hours. The median ratio between tp and tc for the observed data was 0.66, which equals the value (0.67) recommended by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly the Soil Conservation Service). However, the median ratio between tl and tc was only 0.42, whereas the commonly used ratio is 0.60. A relation also was developed between unit-peak discharge (qu) and time of concentration. The unit-peak discharge relation is similar in slope to the Natural Resources Conservation Service equation, but the equation developed for New Mexico in this study produces estimates of qu that range from two to three times as large as those estimated from the Natural Resources Conservation Service equation. An average value of 833 was determined for the empirical constant Kp. A default value of 484 has been used by the Natural Resources Conservation Service when site-specific data are not available. The use of a lower value of Kp in calculations generally results in a lower peak discharge. A relation between the empirical constant Kp and average channel slope was defined in this study. The predicted Kp values from the equation ranged from 530 to 964 for the 20 flood-hydrograph gaging stations. The standard error of estimate for the equation is 36 percent.

Fine-tuning structural RNA alignments in the twilight zone.

PubMed

Bremges, Andreas; Schirmer, Stefanie; Giegerich, Robert

2010-04-30

A widely used method to find conserved secondary structure in RNA is to first construct a multiple sequence alignment, and then fold the alignment, optimizing a score based on thermodynamics and covariance. This method works best around 75% sequence similarity. However, in a "twilight zone" below 55% similarity, the sequence alignment tends to obscure the covariance signal used in the second phase. Therefore, while the overall shape of the consensus structure may still be found, the degree of conservation cannot be estimated reliably. Based on a combination of available methods, we present a method named planACstar for improving structure conservation in structural alignments in the twilight zone. After constructing a consensus structure by alignment folding, planACstar abandons the original sequence alignment, refolds the sequences individually, but consistent with the consensus, aligns the structures, irrespective of sequence, by a pure structure alignment method, and derives an improved sequence alignment from the alignment of structures, to be re-submitted to alignment folding, etc.. This circle may be iterated as long as structural conservation improves, but normally, one step suffices. Employing the tools ClustalW, RNAalifold, and RNAforester, we find that for sequences with 30-55% sequence identity, structural conservation can be improved by 10% on average, with a large variation, measured in terms of RNAalifold's own criterion, the structure conservation index.

Resolution of Forces and Strain Measurements from an Acoustic Ground Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Andrew M.; LaVerde, Bruce T.; Hunt, Ronald; Waldon, James M.

2013-01-01

The Conservatism in Typical Vibration Tests was Demonstrated: Vibration test at component level produced conservative force reactions by approximately a factor of 4 (approx.12 dB) as compared to the integrated acoustic test in 2 out of 3 axes. Reaction Forces Estimated at the Base of Equipment Using a Finite Element Based Method were Validated: FEM based estimate of interface forces may be adequate to guide development of vibration test criteria with less conservatism. Element Forces Estimated in Secondary Structure Struts were Validated: Finite element approach provided best estimate of axial strut forces in frequency range below 200 Hz where a rigid lumped mass assumption for the entire electronics box was valid. Models with enough fidelity to represent diminishing apparent mass of equipment are better suited for estimating force reactions across the frequency range. Forward Work: Demonstrate the reduction in conservatism provided by; Current force limited approach and an FEM guided approach. Validate proposed CMS approach to estimate coupled response from uncoupled system characteristics for vibroacoustics.

Estimates of effective population size and inbreeding in South African indigenous chicken populations: implications for the conservation of unique genetic resources.

PubMed

Mtileni, Bohani; Dzama, Kennedy; Nephawe, Khathutshelo; Rhode, Clint

2016-06-01

Conservation of locally adapted indigenous livestock breeds has become an important objective in sustainable animal breeding, as these breeds represent a unique genetic resource. Therefore, the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa initiated a conservation programme for four South African indigenous chicken breeds. The evaluation and monitoring of the genetic constitution of these conservation flocks is important for proper management of the conservation programme. Using molecular genetic analyses, the effective population sizes and relatedness of these conservation flocks were compared to village (field) chicken populations from which they were derived. Genetic diversity within and between these populations are further discussed within the context of population size. The conservation flocks for the respective breeds had relatively small effective population sizes (point estimate range 38.6-78.6) in comparison to the field populations (point estimate range 118.9-580.0). Furthermore, evidence supports a transient heterozygous excess, generally associated with the occurrence of a recent population bottleneck. Genetic diversity, as measured by the number of alleles, heterozygosity and information index, was also significantly reduced in the conservation flocks. The average relatedness amongst the conservation flocks was high, whilst it remained low for the field populations. There was also significant evidence for population differentiation between field and conservation populations. F st estimates for conservation flocks were moderate to high with a maximum reached between VD_C and VD_F (0.285). However, F st estimates for field population were excessively low between the NN_C and EC_F (0.007) and between EC_F and OV_F (0.009). The significant population differentiation of the conservation flocks from their geographically correlated field populations of origin is further supported by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with 10.51 % of genetic diversity ascribed to population differences within groups (F SC = 0.106). The results suggest that significant genetic erosion has occurred within the conservation flocks due to inbreeding, pronounced effects of random drift and selection. It might be necessary to introduce new breeding individuals from the respective field populations in order to increase the effective population sizes of the conservation flocks and counter the effects of genetic erosion.

An assessment of the benefits of the use of NASA developed fuel conservative technology in the US commercial aircraft fleet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Cost and benefits of a fuel conservative aircraft technology program proposed by NASA are estimated. NASA defined six separate technology elements for the proposed program: (a) engine component improvement (b) composite structures (c) turboprops (d) laminar flow control (e) fuel conservative engine and (f) fuel conservative transport. There were two levels postulated: The baseline program was estimated to cost $490 million over 10 years with peak funding in 1980. The level two program was estimated to cost an additional $180 million also over 10 years. Discussions with NASA and with representatives of the major commercial airframe manufacturers were held to estimate the combinations of the technology elements most likely to be implemented, the potential fuel savings from each combination, and reasonable dates for incorporation of these new aircraft into the fleet.

Estimating the value of non-use benefits from small changes in the provision of ecosystem services.

PubMed

Dutton, Adam; Edwards-Jones, Gareth; Macdonald, David W

2010-12-01

The unit of trade in ecosystem services is usually the use of a proportion of the parcels of land associated with a given service. Valuing small changes in the provision of an ecosystem service presents obstacles, particularly when the service provides non-use benefits, as is the case with conservation of most plants and animals. Quantifying non-use values requires stated-preference valuations. Stated-preference valuations can provide estimates of the public's willingness to pay for a broad conservation goal. Nevertheless, stated-preference valuations can be expensive and do not produce consistent measures for varying levels of provision of a service. Additionally, the unit of trade, land use, is not always linearly related to the level of ecosystem services the land might provide. To overcome these obstacles, we developed a method to estimate the value of a marginal change in the provision of a non-use ecosystem service--in this case conservation of plants or animals associated with a given land-cover type. Our method serves as a tool for calculating transferable valuations of small changes in the provision of ecosystem services relative to the existing provision. Valuation is achieved through stated-preference investigations, calculation of a unit value for a parcel of land, and the weighting of this parcel by its ability to provide the desired ecosystem service and its effect on the ability of the surrounding land parcels to provide the desired service. We used the water vole (Arvicola terrestris) as a case study to illustrate the method. The average present value of a meter of water vole habitat was estimated at UK £ 12, but the marginal value of a meter (based on our methods) could range between £ 0 and £ 40 or more. © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Satellite Estimation of Spectral Surface UV Irradiance. 2; Effect of Horizontally Homogeneous Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krothov, N.; Herman, J. R.; Bhartia, P. K.; Ahmad, Z.a; Fioletov, V.

1998-01-01

The local variability of UV irradiance at the Earth's surface is mostly caused by clouds in addition to the seasonal variability. Parametric representations of radiative transfer RT calculations are presented for the convenient solution of the transmission T of ultraviolet radiation through plane parallel clouds over a surface with reflectivity R(sub s). The calculations are intended for use with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) measured radiances to obtain the calculated Lambert equivalent scene reflectivity R for scenes with and without clouds. The purpose is to extend the theoretical analysis of the estimation of UV irradiance from satellite data for a cloudy atmosphere. Results are presented for a range of cloud optical depths and solar zenith angles for the cases of clouds over a low reflectivity surface R(sub s) less than 0.1, over a snow or ice surface R(sub s) greater than 0.3, and for transmission through a non-conservative scattering cloud with single scattering albedo omega(sub 0) = 0.999. The key finding for conservative scattering is that the cloud-transmission function C(sub T), the ratio of cloudy-to clear-sky transmission, is roughly C(sub T) = 1 - R(sub c) with an error of less than 20% for nearly overhead sun and snow-free surfaces. For TOMS estimates of UV irradiance in the presence of both snow and clouds, independent information about snow albedo is needed for conservative cloud scattering. For non-conservative scattering with R(sub s) greater than 0.5 (snow) the satellite measured scene reflectance cannot be used to estimate surface irradiance. The cloud transmission function has been applied to the calculation of UV irradiance at the Earth's surface and compared with ground-based measurements.

The liberal illusion of uniqueness.

PubMed

Stern, Chadly; West, Tessa V; Schmitt, Peter G

2014-01-01

In two studies, we demonstrated that liberals underestimate their similarity to other liberals (i.e., display truly false uniqueness), whereas moderates and conservatives overestimate their similarity to other moderates and conservatives (i.e., display truly false consensus; Studies 1 and 2). We further demonstrated that a fundamental difference between liberals and conservatives in the motivation to feel unique explains this ideological distinction in the accuracy of estimating similarity (Study 2). Implications of the accuracy of consensus estimates for mobilizing liberal and conservative political movements are discussed.

Conservative classical and quantum resolution limits for incoherent imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsang, Mankei

2018-06-01

I propose classical and quantum limits to the statistical resolution of two incoherent optical point sources from the perspective of minimax parameter estimation. Unlike earlier results based on the Cramér-Rao bound (CRB), the limits proposed here, based on the worst-case error criterion and a Bayesian version of the CRB, are valid for any biased or unbiased estimator and obey photon-number scalings that are consistent with the behaviours of actual estimators. These results prove that, from the minimax perspective, the spatial-mode demultiplexing measurement scheme recently proposed by Tsang, Nair, and Lu [Phys. Rev. X 2016, 6 031033.] remains superior to direct imaging for sufficiently high photon numbers.

Prioritization of catchments based on soil erosion using remote sensing and GIS.

PubMed

Khadse, Gajanan K; Vijay, Ritesh; Labhasetwar, Pawan K

2015-06-01

Water and soil are the most essential natural resources for socioeconomic development and sustenance of life. A study of soil and water dynamics at a watershed level facilitates a scientific approach towards their conservation and management. Remote sensing and Geographic Information System are tools that help to plan and manage natural resources on watershed basis. Studies were conducted for the formulation of catchment area treatment plan based on watershed prioritization with soil erosion studies using remote sensing techniques, corroborated with Geographic Information System (GIS), secondary data and ground truth information. Estimation of runoff and sediment yield is necessary in prioritization of catchment for the design of soil conservation structures and for identifying the critical erosion-prone areas of a catchment for implementation of best management plan with limited resources. The Universal Soil Loss Equation, Sediment Yield Determination and silt yield index methods are used for runoff and soil loss estimation for prioritization of the catchments. On the basis of soil erosion classes, the watersheds were grouped into very high, high, moderate and low priorities. High-priority watersheds need immediate attention for soil and water conservation, whereas low-priority watershed having good vegetative cover and low silt yield index may not need immediate attention for such treatments.

Four Decades of Forest Persistence, Clearance and Logging on Borneo

PubMed Central

Gaveau, David L. A.; Sloan, Sean; Molidena, Elis; Yaen, Husna; Sheil, Doug; Abram, Nicola K.; Ancrenaz, Marc; Nasi, Robert; Quinones, Marcela; Wielaard, Niels; Meijaard, Erik

2014-01-01

The native forests of Borneo have been impacted by selective logging, fire, and conversion to plantations at unprecedented scales since industrial-scale extractive industries began in the early 1970s. There is no island-wide documentation of forest clearance or logging since the 1970s. This creates an information gap for conservation planning, especially with regard to selectively logged forests that maintain high conservation potential. Analysing LANDSAT images, we estimate that 75.7% (558,060 km2) of Borneo's area (737,188 km2) was forested around 1973. Based upon a forest cover map for 2010 derived using ALOS-PALSAR and visually reviewing LANDSAT images, we estimate that the 1973 forest area had declined by 168,493 km2 (30.2%) in 2010. The highest losses were recorded in Sabah and Kalimantan with 39.5% and 30.7% of their total forest area in 1973 becoming non-forest in 2010, and the lowest in Brunei and Sarawak (8.4%, and 23.1%). We estimate that the combined area planted in industrial oil palm and timber plantations in 2010 was 75,480 km2, representing 10% of Borneo. We mapped 271,819 km of primary logging roads that were created between 1973 and 2010. The greatest density of logging roads was found in Sarawak, at 0.89 km km−2, and the lowest density in Brunei, at 0.18 km km−2. Analyzing MODIS-based tree cover maps, we estimate that logging operated within 700 m of primary logging roads. Using this distance, we estimate that 266,257 km2 of 1973 forest cover has been logged. With 389,566 km2 (52.8%) of the island remaining forested, of which 209,649 km2 remains intact. There is still hope for biodiversity conservation in Borneo. Protecting logged forests from fire and conversion to plantations is an urgent priority for reducing rates of deforestation in Borneo. PMID:25029192

Four decades of forest persistence, clearance and logging on Borneo.

PubMed

Gaveau, David L A; Sloan, Sean; Molidena, Elis; Yaen, Husna; Sheil, Doug; Abram, Nicola K; Ancrenaz, Marc; Nasi, Robert; Quinones, Marcela; Wielaard, Niels; Meijaard, Erik

2014-01-01

The native forests of Borneo have been impacted by selective logging, fire, and conversion to plantations at unprecedented scales since industrial-scale extractive industries began in the early 1970s. There is no island-wide documentation of forest clearance or logging since the 1970s. This creates an information gap for conservation planning, especially with regard to selectively logged forests that maintain high conservation potential. Analysing LANDSAT images, we estimate that 75.7% (558,060 km2) of Borneo's area (737,188 km2) was forested around 1973. Based upon a forest cover map for 2010 derived using ALOS-PALSAR and visually reviewing LANDSAT images, we estimate that the 1973 forest area had declined by 168,493 km2 (30.2%) in 2010. The highest losses were recorded in Sabah and Kalimantan with 39.5% and 30.7% of their total forest area in 1973 becoming non-forest in 2010, and the lowest in Brunei and Sarawak (8.4%, and 23.1%). We estimate that the combined area planted in industrial oil palm and timber plantations in 2010 was 75,480 km2, representing 10% of Borneo. We mapped 271,819 km of primary logging roads that were created between 1973 and 2010. The greatest density of logging roads was found in Sarawak, at 0.89 km km-2, and the lowest density in Brunei, at 0.18 km km-2. Analyzing MODIS-based tree cover maps, we estimate that logging operated within 700 m of primary logging roads. Using this distance, we estimate that 266,257 km2 of 1973 forest cover has been logged. With 389,566 km2 (52.8%) of the island remaining forested, of which 209,649 km2 remains intact. There is still hope for biodiversity conservation in Borneo. Protecting logged forests from fire and conversion to plantations is an urgent priority for reducing rates of deforestation in Borneo.

Time providing care outside visits in a home-based primary care program.

PubMed

Pedowitz, Elizabeth J; Ornstein, Katherine A; Farber, Jeffrey; DeCherrie, Linda V

2014-06-01

To assess how much time physicians in a large home-based primary care (HBPC) program spend providing care outside of home visits. Unreimbursed time and patient and provider-related factors that may contribute to that time were considered. Mount Sinai Visiting Doctors (MSVD) providers filled out research forms for every interaction involving care provision outside of home visits. Data collected included length of interaction, mode, nature, and with whom the interaction was for 3 weeks. MSVD, an academic home-visit program in Manhattan, New York. All primary care physicians (PCPs) in MSVD (n = 14) agreed to participate. Time data were analyzed using a comprehensive estimate and conservative estimates to quantify unbillable time. Data on 1,151 interactions for 537 patients were collected. An average 8.2 h/wk was spent providing nonhome visit care for a full-time provider. Using the most conservative estimates, 3.6 h/wk was estimated to be unreimbursed per full-time provider. No significant differences in interaction times were found between patients with and without dementia, new and established patients, and primary-panel and covered patients. Home-based primary care providers spend substantial time providing care outside home visits, much of which goes unrecognized in the current reimbursement system. These findings may help guide practice development and creation of new payment systems for HBPC and similar models of care. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Peer Review of Launch Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Timmy R.

2011-01-01

Catastrophic failures of launch vehicles during launch and ascent are currently modeled using equivalent trinitrotoluene (TNT) estimates. This approach tends to over-predict the blast effect with subsequent impact to launch vehicle and crew escape requirements. Bangham Engineering, located in Huntsville, Alabama, assembled a less-conservative model based on historical failure and test data coupled with physical models and estimates. This white paper summarizes NESC's peer review of the Bangham analytical work completed to date.

A Currency for Offsetting Energy Development Impacts: Horse-Trading Sage-Grouse on the Open Market

PubMed Central

Doherty, Kevin E.; Naugle, David E.; Evans, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Background Biodiversity offsets provide a mechanism to compensate for unavoidable damages from new energy development as the U.S. increases its domestic production. Proponents argue that offsets provide a partial solution for funding conservation while opponents contend the practice is flawed because offsets are negotiated without the science necessary to backup resulting decisions. Missing in negotiations is a biologically-based currency for estimating sufficiency of offsets and a framework for applying proceeds to maximize conservation benefits. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we quantify a common currency for offsets for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) by estimating number of impacted birds at 4 levels of development commonly permitted. Impacts were indiscernible at 1–12 wells per 32.2 km2. Above this threshold lek losses were 2–5 times greater inside than outside of development and bird abundance at remaining leks declined by −32 to −77%. Findings reiterated the importance of time-lags as evidenced by greater impacts 4 years after initial development. Clustering well locations enabled a few small leks to remain active inside of developments. Conclusions/Significance Documented impacts relative to development intensity can be used to forecast biological trade-offs of newly proposed or ongoing developments, and when drilling is approved, anticipated bird declines form the biological currency for negotiating offsets. Monetary costs for offsets will be determined by true conservation cost to mitigate risks such as sagebrush tillage to other populations of equal or greater number. If this information is blended with landscape level conservation planning, the mitigation hierarchy can be improved by steering planned developments away from conservation priorities, ensuring compensatory mitigation projects deliver a higher return for conservation that equate to an equal number of birds in the highest priority areas, provide on-site mitigation recommendations, and provide a biologically based cost for mitigating unavoidable impacts. PMID:20442770

A review of the population estimation approach of the North American landbird conservation plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Howe, Frank P.; James, Frances C.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Reed, Eric T.; Sauer, John R.; Thompson, Frank R.

2006-01-01

As part of their development of a continental plan for monitoring landbirds (Rich et al. 2004), Partners in Flight (PIF) applied a new method to make preliminary estimates of population size for all 448 species of landbirds present in the continental United States and Canada (Table 1). Estimation of the global population size of North American landbirds was intended to (1) identify the degree of vulnerability of each species, (2) provide estimates of the current population size for each species, and (3) provide a starting point for estimating population sizes in states, provinces, territories, and Bird Conservation Regions (Rich et al. 2004). A method proposed by Rosenberg and Blancher (2005) was used to derive population estimates from available survey data. To enhance the credibility of these estimates, PIF organized a review of the methodology used to estimate North American landbird population sizes. A planning committee selected members from the ornithological and biometrical communities (hereafter “the panel”), with the aim of selecting individuals from academia, state natural-resource agencies, and the U.S. and Canadian federal governments, including the Canadian Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service.The panel addressed three questions: (1) Were the methods of population estimation proposed by PIF reasonable? (2) What actions could be taken to improve the data or analyses on which the PIF population estimates were based? and (3) How should the PIF population estimates be interpreted?

Identification and classification of structural soil conservation measures based on very high resolution stereo satellite data.

PubMed

Eckert, Sandra; Tesfay Ghebremicael, Selamawit; Hurni, Hans; Kohler, Thomas

2017-05-15

Land degradation affects large areas of land around the globe, with grave consequences for those living off the land. Major efforts are being made to implement soil and water conservation measures that counteract soil erosion and help secure vital ecosystem services. However, where and to what extent such measures have been implemented is often not well documented. Knowledge about this could help to identify areas where soil and water conservation measures are successfully supporting sustainable land management, as well as areas requiring urgent rehabilitation of conservation structures such as terraces and bunds. This study explores the potential of the latest satellite-based remote sensing technology for use in assessing and monitoring the extent of existing soil and water conservation structures. We used a set of very high resolution stereo Geoeye-1 satellite data, from which we derived a detailed digital surface model as well as a set of other spectral, terrain, texture, and filtered information layers. We developed and applied an object-based classification approach, working on two segmentation levels. On the coarser level, the aim was to delimit certain landscape zones. Information about these landscape zones is useful in distinguishing different types of soil and water conservation structures, as each zone contains certain specific types of structures. On the finer level, the goal was to extract and identify different types of linear soil and water conservation structures. The classification rules were based mainly on spectral, textural, shape, and topographic properties, and included object relationships. This approach enabled us to identify and separate from other classes the majority (78.5%) of terraces and bunds, as well as most hillside terraces (81.25%). Omission and commission errors are similar to those obtained by the few existing studies focusing on the same research objective but using different types of remotely sensed data. Based on our results, we estimate that the construction of the conservation structures in our study area in Eritrea required over 300,000 person-days of work, which underlines the huge efforts involved in soil and water conservation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of different transport observations on inverse modeling results: case study of a long-term groundwater tracer test monitored at high resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasa, Ehsan; Foglia, Laura; Mackay, Douglas M.; Scow, Kate M.

2013-11-01

Conservative tracer experiments can provide information useful for characterizing various subsurface transport properties. This study examines the effectiveness of three different types of transport observations for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of a three-dimensional site-specific groundwater flow and transport model: conservative tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs), first temporal moments of BTCs ( m 1), and tracer cumulative mass discharge ( M d) through control planes combined with hydraulic head observations ( h). High-resolution data obtained from a 410-day controlled field experiment at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California (USA), have been used. In this experiment, bromide was injected to create two adjacent plumes monitored at six different transects (perpendicular to groundwater flow) with a total of 162 monitoring wells. A total of 133 different observations of transient hydraulic head, 1,158 of BTC concentration, 23 of first moment, and 36 of mass discharge were used for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of nine flow and transport parameters. The importance of each group of transport observations in estimating these parameters was evaluated using sensitivity analysis, and five out of nine parameters were calibrated against these data. Results showed the advantages of using temporal moment of conservative tracer BTCs and mass discharge as observations for inverse modeling.

Importance of well-designed monitoring programs for the conservation of endangered species: case study of the Snail Kite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Hines, J.E.

2007-01-01

Monitoring natural populations is often a necessary step to establish the conservation status of species and to help improve management decisions. Nevertheless, many monitoring programs do not effectively address primary sources of variability in monitoring data, which ultimately may limit the utility of monitoring in identifying declines and improving management. To illustrate the importance of taking into account detectability and spatial variation, we used a recently proposed estimator of abundance (superpopulation estimator) to estimate population size of and number of young produced by the Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus) in Florida. During the last decade, primary recovery targets set by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for the Snail Kite that were based on deficient monitoring programs (i.e., uncorrected counts) were close to being met (by simply increasing search effort during count surveys). During that same period, the Snail Kite population declined dramatically (by 55% from 1997 to 2005) and the number of young decreased by 70% between 1992?1998 and 1999?2005. Our results provide a strong practical case in favor of the argument that investing a sufficient amount of time and resources into designing and implementing monitoring programs that carefully address detectability and spatial variation is critical for the conservation of endangered species.

Estimating habitat carrying capacity for migrating and wintering waterfowl: Considerations, pitfalls and improvements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Christopher; Dugger, Bruce D.; Brasher, Michael G.; Coluccy, John M.; Cramer, Dane M.; Eadie, John M.; Gray, Matthew J.; Hagy, Heath M.; Livolsi, Mark; McWilliams, Scott R.; Petrie, Matthew; Soulliere, Gregory J.; Tirpak, John M.; Webb, Elisabeth B.

2014-01-01

Population-based habitat conservation planning for migrating and wintering waterfowl in North America is carried out by habitat Joint Venture (JV) initiatives and is based on the premise that food can limit demography (i.e. food limitation hypothesis). Consequently, planners use bioenergetic models to estimate food (energy) availability and population-level energy demands at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, and translate these values into regional habitat objectives. While simple in principle, there are both empirical and theoretical challenges associated with calculating energy supply and demand including: 1) estimating food availability, 2) estimating the energy content of specific foods, 3) extrapolating site-specific estimates of food availability to landscapes for focal species, 4) applicability of estimates from a single species to other species, 5) estimating resting metabolic rate, 6) estimating cost of daily behaviours, and 7) estimating costs of thermoregulation or tissue synthesis. Most models being used are daily ration models (DRMs) whose set of simplifying assumptions are well established and whose use is widely accepted and feasible given the empirical data available to populate such models. However, DRMs do not link habitat objectives to metrics of ultimate ecological importance such as individual body condition or survival, and largely only consider food-producing habitats. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide a possible alternative for creating more biologically realistic models under some conditions; however, ABMs require different types of empirical inputs, many of which have yet to be estimated for key North American waterfowl. Decisions about how JVs can best proceed with habitat conservation would benefit from the use of sensitivity analyses that could identify the empirical and theoretical uncertainties that have the greatest influence on efforts to estimate habitat carrying capacity. Development of ABMs at restricted, yet biologically relevant spatial scales, followed by comparisons of their outputs to those generated from more simplistic, deterministic models can provide a means of assessing degrees of dissimilarity in how alternative models describe desired landscape conditions for migrating and wintering waterfowl.

On determining the significance of ephemeral continental wetlands to North American migratory shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Granfors, Diane A.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

2008-01-01

Conservation challenges enhance the need for quantitative information on dispersed bird populations in extensive landscapes, for techniques to monitor populations and assess environmental effects, and for conservation strategies at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. By estimating population sizes of shorebirds in the U.S. portion of the prairie pothole landscape in central North America, where most migrating shorebirds exhibit a highly dispersed spatial pattern, we determined that the region may play a vital role in the conservation of shorebirds. During northward and southward migration, 7.3 million shorebirds (95% CI: 4.3–10.3 million) and 3.9 million shorebirds (95% CI: 1.7–6.0 million) stopped to rest and refuel in the study area; inclusion of locally breeding species increases the estimates by 0.1 million and 0.07 million shorebirds, respectively. Seven species of calidridine sandpipers, including Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla), White-rumped Sandpipers (C. fuscicollis), and Stilt Sandpipers (C. himantopus), constituted 50% of northbound migrants in our study area. We present an approach to population estimation and monitoring, based on stratified random selection of townships as sample units, that is well suited to 11 migratory shorebird species. For extensive and dynamic wetland systems, we strongly caution against a monitoring program based solely on repeated counts of known stopover sites with historically high numbers of shorebirds. We recommend refinements in methodology to address sample-size requirements and potential sources of bias so that our approach may form the basis of a rigorous migration monitoring program in this and other prairie wetland regions.

Retrospective Assessment of Cost Savings From Prevention

PubMed Central

Grosse, Scott D.; Berry, Robert J.; Tilford, J. Mick; Kucik, James E.; Waitzman, Norman J.

2016-01-01

Introduction Although fortification of food with folic acid has been calculated to be cost saving in the U.S., updated estimates are needed. This analysis calculates new estimates from the societal perspective of net cost savings per year associated with mandatory folic acid fortification of enriched cereal grain products in the U.S. that was implemented during 1997–1998. Methods Estimates of annual numbers of live-born spina bifida cases in 1995–1996 relative to 1999–2011 based on birth defects surveillance data were combined during 2015 with published estimates of the present value of lifetime direct costs updated in 2014 U.S. dollars for a live-born infant with spina bifida to estimate avoided direct costs and net cost savings. Results The fortification mandate is estimated to have reduced the annual number of U.S. live-born spina bifida cases by 767, with a lower-bound estimate of 614. The present value of mean direct lifetime cost per infant with spina bifida is estimated to be $791,900, or $577,000 excluding caregiving costs. Using a best estimate of numbers of avoided live-born spina bifida cases, fortification is estimated to reduce the present value of total direct costs for each year's birth cohort by $603 million more than the cost of fortification. A lower-bound estimate of cost savings using conservative assumptions, including the upper-bound estimate of fortification cost, is $299 million. Conclusions The estimates of cost savings are larger than previously reported, even using conservative assumptions. The analysis can also inform assessments of folic acid fortification in other countries. PMID:26790341

Uncertainty Estimation Improves Energy Measurement and Verification Procedures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walter, Travis; Price, Phillip N.; Sohn, Michael D.

2014-05-14

Implementing energy conservation measures in buildings can reduce energy costs and environmental impacts, but such measures cost money to implement so intelligent investment strategies require the ability to quantify the energy savings by comparing actual energy used to how much energy would have been used in absence of the conservation measures (known as the baseline energy use). Methods exist for predicting baseline energy use, but a limitation of most statistical methods reported in the literature is inadequate quantification of the uncertainty in baseline energy use predictions. However, estimation of uncertainty is essential for weighing the risks of investing in retrofits.more » Most commercial buildings have, or soon will have, electricity meters capable of providing data at short time intervals. These data provide new opportunities to quantify uncertainty in baseline predictions, and to do so after shorter measurement durations than are traditionally used. In this paper, we show that uncertainty estimation provides greater measurement and verification (M&V) information and helps to overcome some of the difficulties with deciding how much data is needed to develop baseline models and to confirm energy savings. We also show that cross-validation is an effective method for computing uncertainty. In so doing, we extend a simple regression-based method of predicting energy use using short-interval meter data. We demonstrate the methods by predicting energy use in 17 real commercial buildings. We discuss the benefits of uncertainty estimates which can provide actionable decision making information for investing in energy conservation measures.« less

WEPP model implementation project with the USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) is a physical process-based soil erosion model that can be used to estimate runoff, soil loss, and sediment yield from hillslope profiles, fields, and small watersheds. Initially developed from 1985-1995, WEPP has been applied and validated across a wide r...

Microsatellite-based genetic diversity and population structure of domestic sheep in northern Eurasia.

PubMed

Tapio, Miika; Ozerov, Mikhail; Tapio, Ilma; Toro, Miguel A; Marzanov, Nurbiy; Cinkulov, Mirjana; Goncharenko, Galina; Kiselyova, Tatyana; Murawski, Maziek; Kantanen, Juha

2010-08-10

Identification of global livestock diversity hotspots and their importance in diversity maintenance is essential for making global conservation efforts. We screened 52 sheep breeds from the Eurasian subcontinent with 20 microsatellite markers. By estimating and weighting differently within- and between-breed genetic variation our aims were to identify genetic diversity hotspots and prioritize the importance of each breed for conservation, respectively. In addition we estimated how important within-species diversity hotspots are in livestock conservation. Bayesian clustering analysis revealed three genetic clusters, termed Nordic, Composite and Fat-tailed. Southern breeds from close to the region of sheep domestication were more variable, but less genetically differentiated compared with more northern populations. Decreasing weight for within-breed diversity component led to very high representation of genetic clusters or regions containing more diverged breeds, but did not increase phenotypic diversity among the high ranked breeds. Sampling populations throughout 14 regional groups was suggested for maximized total genetic diversity. During initial steps of establishing a livestock conservation program populations from the diversity hot-spot area are the most important ones, but for the full design our results suggested that approximately equal population presentation across environments should be considered. Even in this case, higher per population emphasis in areas of high diversity is appropriate. The analysis was based on neutral data, but we have no reason to think the general trend is limited to this type of data. However, a comprehensive valuation of populations should balance production systems, phenotypic traits and available genetic information, and include consideration of probability of success.

Microsatellite-based genetic diversity and population structure of domestic sheep in northern Eurasia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Identification of global livestock diversity hotspots and their importance in diversity maintenance is essential for making global conservation efforts. We screened 52 sheep breeds from the Eurasian subcontinent with 20 microsatellite markers. By estimating and weighting differently within- and between-breed genetic variation our aims were to identify genetic diversity hotspots and prioritize the importance of each breed for conservation, respectively. In addition we estimated how important within-species diversity hotspots are in livestock conservation. Results Bayesian clustering analysis revealed three genetic clusters, termed Nordic, Composite and Fat-tailed. Southern breeds from close to the region of sheep domestication were more variable, but less genetically differentiated compared with more northern populations. Decreasing weight for within-breed diversity component led to very high representation of genetic clusters or regions containing more diverged breeds, but did not increase phenotypic diversity among the high ranked breeds. Sampling populations throughout 14 regional groups was suggested for maximized total genetic diversity. Conclusions During initial steps of establishing a livestock conservation program populations from the diversity hot-spot area are the most important ones, but for the full design our results suggested that approximately equal population presentation across environments should be considered. Even in this case, higher per population emphasis in areas of high diversity is appropriate. The analysis was based on neutral data, but we have no reason to think the general trend is limited to this type of data. However, a comprehensive valuation of populations should balance production systems, phenotypic traits and available genetic information, and include consideration of probability of success. PMID:20698974

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

PubMed Central

Robinson, Hugh S.; Abarca, Maria; Zeller, Katherine A.; Velasquez, Grisel; Paemelaere, Evi A. D.; Goldberg, Joshua F.; Payan, Esteban; Hoogesteijn, Rafael; Boede, Ernesto O.; Schmidt, Krzysztof; Lampo, Margarita; Viloria, Ángel L.; Carreño, Rafael; Robinson, Nathaniel; Lukacs, Paul M.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Salom-Pérez, Roberto; Castañeda, Franklin; Boron, Valeria; Quigley, Howard

2018-01-01

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions. PMID:29579129

Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

2005-01-01

The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

Monitoring Dolphins in an Urban Marine System: Total and Effective Population Size Estimates of Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia

PubMed Central

Ansmann, Ina C.; Lanyon, Janet M.; Seddon, Jennifer M.; Parra, Guido J.

2013-01-01

Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008–2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Nec). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554±22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510–598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193±6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181–207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446±56 (SE) (95% CI: 336–556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Nec = 56, 95% CI: 33–128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect abundance trends. PMID:23755197

Fine-tuning structural RNA alignments in the twilight zone

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A widely used method to find conserved secondary structure in RNA is to first construct a multiple sequence alignment, and then fold the alignment, optimizing a score based on thermodynamics and covariance. This method works best around 75% sequence similarity. However, in a "twilight zone" below 55% similarity, the sequence alignment tends to obscure the covariance signal used in the second phase. Therefore, while the overall shape of the consensus structure may still be found, the degree of conservation cannot be estimated reliably. Results Based on a combination of available methods, we present a method named planACstar for improving structure conservation in structural alignments in the twilight zone. After constructing a consensus structure by alignment folding, planACstar abandons the original sequence alignment, refolds the sequences individually, but consistent with the consensus, aligns the structures, irrespective of sequence, by a pure structure alignment method, and derives an improved sequence alignment from the alignment of structures, to be re-submitted to alignment folding, etc.. This circle may be iterated as long as structural conservation improves, but normally, one step suffices. Conclusions Employing the tools ClustalW, RNAalifold, and RNAforester, we find that for sequences with 30-55% sequence identity, structural conservation can be improved by 10% on average, with a large variation, measured in terms of RNAalifold's own criterion, the structure conservation index. PMID:20433706

Wildlife Abundance and Diversity as Indicators of Tourism Potential in Northern Botswana.

PubMed

Winterbach, Christiaan W; Whitesell, Carolyn; Somers, Michael J

2015-01-01

Wildlife tourism can provide economic incentives for conservation. Due to the abundance of wildlife and the presence of charismatic species some areas are better suited to wildlife tourism. Our first objective was to develop criteria based on wildlife abundance and diversity to evaluate tourism potential in the Northern Conservation Zone of Botswana. Secondly we wanted to quantify and compare tourism experiences in areas with high and low tourism potential. We used aerial survey data to estimate wildlife biomass and diversity to determine tourism potential, while data from ground surveys quantified the tourist experience. Areas used for High Paying Low Volume tourism had significantly higher mean wildlife biomass and wildlife diversity than the areas avoided for this type of tourism. Only 22% of the Northern Conservation Zone has intermediate to high tourism potential. The areas with high tourism potential, as determined from the aerial survey data, provided tourists with significantly better wildlife sightings (ground surveys) than the low tourism potential areas. Even Low Paying tourism may not be economically viable in concessions that lack areas with intermediate to high tourism potential. The largest part of the Northern Conservation Zone has low tourism potential, but low tourism potential is not equal to low conservation value. Alternative conservation strategies should be developed to complement the economic incentive provided by wildlife-based tourism in Botswana.

Wildlife Abundance and Diversity as Indicators of Tourism Potential in Northern Botswana

PubMed Central

Winterbach, Christiaan W.; Whitesell, Carolyn; Somers, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Wildlife tourism can provide economic incentives for conservation. Due to the abundance of wildlife and the presence of charismatic species some areas are better suited to wildlife tourism. Our first objective was to develop criteria based on wildlife abundance and diversity to evaluate tourism potential in the Northern Conservation Zone of Botswana. Secondly we wanted to quantify and compare tourism experiences in areas with high and low tourism potential. We used aerial survey data to estimate wildlife biomass and diversity to determine tourism potential, while data from ground surveys quantified the tourist experience. Areas used for High Paying Low Volume tourism had significantly higher mean wildlife biomass and wildlife diversity than the areas avoided for this type of tourism. Only 22% of the Northern Conservation Zone has intermediate to high tourism potential. The areas with high tourism potential, as determined from the aerial survey data, provided tourists with significantly better wildlife sightings (ground surveys) than the low tourism potential areas. Even Low Paying tourism may not be economically viable in concessions that lack areas with intermediate to high tourism potential. The largest part of the Northern Conservation Zone has low tourism potential, but low tourism potential is not equal to low conservation value. Alternative conservation strategies should be developed to complement the economic incentive provided by wildlife-based tourism in Botswana. PMID:26308859

Stratum variance estimation for sample allocation in crop surveys. [Great Plains Corridor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, C. R., Jr.; Chhikara, R. S. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The problem of determining stratum variances needed in achieving an optimum sample allocation for crop surveys by remote sensing is investigated by considering an approach based on the concept of stratum variance as a function of the sampling unit size. A methodology using the existing and easily available information of historical crop statistics is developed for obtaining initial estimates of tratum variances. The procedure is applied to estimate stratum variances for wheat in the U.S. Great Plains and is evaluated based on the numerical results thus obtained. It is shown that the proposed technique is viable and performs satisfactorily, with the use of a conservative value for the field size and the crop statistics from the small political subdivision level, when the estimated stratum variances were compared to those obtained using the LANDSAT data.

Estimating cetacean carrying capacity based on spacing behaviour.

PubMed

Braithwaite, Janelle E; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Jenner, K Curt S

2012-01-01

Conservation of large ocean wildlife requires an understanding of how they use space. In Western Australia, the humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population is growing at a minimum rate of 10% per year. An important consideration for conservation based management in space-limited environments, such as coastal resting areas, is the potential expansion in area use by humpback whales if the carrying capacity of existing areas is exceeded. Here we determined the theoretical carrying capacity of a known humpback resting area based on the spacing behaviour of pods, where a resting area is defined as a sheltered embayment along the coast. Two separate approaches were taken to estimate this distance. The first used the median nearest neighbour distance between pods in relatively dense areas, giving a spacing distance of 2.16 km (± 0.94). The second estimated the spacing distance as the radius at which 50% of the population included no other pods, and was calculated as 1.93 km (range: 1.62-2.50 km). Using these values, the maximum number of pods able to fit into the resting area was 698 and 872 pods, respectively. Given an average observed pod size of 1.7 whales, this equates to a carrying capacity estimate of between 1187 and 1482 whales at any given point in time. This study demonstrates that whale pods do maintain a distance from each other, which may determine the number of animals that can occupy aggregation areas where space is limited. This requirement for space has implications when considering boundaries for protected areas or competition for space with the fishing and resources sectors.

Problems in estimating self-supplied industrial water use by indirect methods, the California example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burt, R.J.

1983-01-01

Consumptive fresh-water use by industry in California is estimated at about 230 million gallons per day, or about one-half of one percent of agricultural withdrawals in the State , and only about 1 percent of agricultural consumptive use. Therefore, a significant State-wide realignment of the total water resources could not be made by industrial conservation measures. Nevertheless, considerable latitude for water conservation exists in industry -- fresh water consumed by self-supplied industry amounts to about 40 percent of its withdrawals in California, and only about 10 to 15 percent nationally (not including power-plant use). Furthermore, where firms withdraw and consume less water there is more for others nearby to use. The main question in attempting to estimate self-supplied industrial water use in California by indirect methods was whether accurate estimates of industrial water use could be made from data on surrogates such as production and employment. The answer is apparently not. A fundamental problem was that different data bases produced variable coefficients of water use for similar industries. Much of the potential for error appeared to lie in the water data bases rather than the production or employment data. The apparent reasons are that water-use data are based on responses to questionnaires, which are prone to errors in reporting, and because the data may be aggregated inappropriately for this kind of correlation. Industries within an apparently similar category commonly use different amounts of water, both because of differences in the product and because of differences in production processes even where the end-product is similar. (USGS)

Seagrass mapping in Greek territorial waters using Landsat-8 satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topouzelis, Konstantinos; Makri, Despina; Stoupas, Nikolaos; Papakonstantinou, Apostolos; Katsanevakis, Stelios

2018-05-01

Seagrass meadows are among the most valuable coastal ecosystems on earth due to their structural and functional roles in the coastal environment. This study demonstrates remote sensing's capacity to produce seagrass distribution maps on a regional scale. The seagrass coverage maps provided here describe and quantify for the first time the extent and the spatial distribution of seagrass meadows in Greek waters. This information is needed for identifying priority conservation sites and to help coastal ecosystem managers and stakeholders to develop conservation strategies and design a resilient network of protected marine areas. The results were based on an object-based image analysis of 50 Landsat-8 satellite images. The time window of image acquisition was between June 2013 and July 2015. In total, the seagrass coverage in Greek waters was estimated at 2619 km2. The largest coverages of individual seagrass meadows were found around Lemnos Island (124 km2), Corfu Island (46 km2), and East Peloponnese (47 km2). The accuracy assessment of the detected areas was based on 62 Natura 2000 sites, for which habitat maps were available. The mean total accuracy for all 62 sites was estimated at 76.3%.

Customizing a rangefinder for community-based wildlife conservation initiatives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Jason I.

2011-01-01

Population size of many threatened and endangered species is relatively unknown because estimating animal abundance in remote parts of the world, without access to aircraft for surveying vast areas, is a scientific challenge with few proposed solutions. One option is to enlist local community members and train them in data collection for large line transect or point count surveys, but financial and sometimes technological constraints prevent access to the necessary equipment and training for accurately quantifying distance measurements. Such measurements are paramount for generating reliable estimates of animal density. This problem was overcome in a survey of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) in the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia, by converting an inexpensive optical sporting rangefinder into a species-specific rangefinder with visual-based categorical labels. Accuracy trials concluded 96.86% of 350 distance measures matched those from a laser rangefinder. This simple customized optic subsequently allowed for a large group of minimally-trained observers to simultaneously record quantitative measures of distance, despite language, education, and skill differences among the diverse group. The large community-based effort actively engaged local residents in species conservation by including them as the foundation for collecting scientific data.

An axisymmetric PFEM formulation for bottle forming simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryzhakov, Pavel B.

2017-01-01

A numerical model for bottle forming simulation is proposed. It is based upon the Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM) and is developed for the simulation of bottles characterized by rotational symmetry. The PFEM strategy is adapted to suit the problem of interest. Axisymmetric version of the formulation is developed and a modified contact algorithm is applied. This results in a method characterized by excellent computational efficiency and volume conservation characteristics. The model is validated. An example modelling the final blow process is solved. Bottle wall thickness is estimated and the mass conservation of the method is analysed.

Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques.

PubMed

Jones, Kelly W; Lewis, David J

2015-01-01

Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented--from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)--to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing 'matching' to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods--an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators--due to the presence of unobservable bias--that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that if time-invariant unobservables are not present, matching combined with differences in means or cross-sectional regression leads to similar estimates of program effectiveness as matching combined with fixed effects panel regression. These results highlight the importance of considering observable and unobservable forms of bias and the methodological assumptions across estimators when designing an impact evaluation of conservation programs.

The Sampled Red List Index for Plants, phase II: ground-truthing specimen-based conservation assessments

PubMed Central

Brummitt, Neil; Bachman, Steven P.; Aletrari, Elina; Chadburn, Helen; Griffiths-Lee, Janine; Lutz, Maiko; Moat, Justin; Rivers, Malin C.; Syfert, Mindy M.; Nic Lughadha, Eimear M.

2015-01-01

The IUCN Sampled Red List Index (SRLI) is a policy response by biodiversity scientists to the need to estimate trends in extinction risk of the world's diminishing biological diversity. Assessments of plant species for the SRLI project rely predominantly on herbarium specimen data from natural history collections, in the overwhelming absence of accurate population data or detailed distribution maps for the vast majority of plant species. This creates difficulties in re-assessing these species so as to measure genuine changes in conservation status, which must be observed under the same Red List criteria in order to be distinguished from an increase in the knowledge available for that species, and thus re-calculate the SRLI. However, the same specimen data identify precise localities where threatened species have previously been collected and can be used to model species ranges and to target fieldwork in order to test specimen-based range estimates and collect population data for SRLI plant species. Here, we outline a strategy for prioritizing fieldwork efforts in order to apply a wider range of IUCN Red List criteria to assessments of plant species, or any taxa with detailed locality or natural history specimen data, to produce a more robust estimation of the SRLI. PMID:25561676

10 CFR 455.62 - Contents of a technical assistance program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... and document energy conservation maintenance and operating procedure changes and energy conservation... operating procedure changes, if any, and energy conservation measures selected in accordance with the State... conservation maintenance and operating procedure change and an estimate of the costs of adopting such energy...

10 CFR 455.62 - Contents of a technical assistance program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... and document energy conservation maintenance and operating procedure changes and energy conservation... operating procedure changes, if any, and energy conservation measures selected in accordance with the State... conservation maintenance and operating procedure change and an estimate of the costs of adopting such energy...

10 CFR 455.62 - Contents of a technical assistance program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... and document energy conservation maintenance and operating procedure changes and energy conservation... operating procedure changes, if any, and energy conservation measures selected in accordance with the State... conservation maintenance and operating procedure change and an estimate of the costs of adopting such energy...

10 CFR 455.62 - Contents of a technical assistance program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... and document energy conservation maintenance and operating procedure changes and energy conservation... operating procedure changes, if any, and energy conservation measures selected in accordance with the State... conservation maintenance and operating procedure change and an estimate of the costs of adopting such energy...

10 CFR 455.62 - Contents of a technical assistance program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... and document energy conservation maintenance and operating procedure changes and energy conservation... operating procedure changes, if any, and energy conservation measures selected in accordance with the State... conservation maintenance and operating procedure change and an estimate of the costs of adopting such energy...

Meridional overturning and large-scale circulation of the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganachaud, Alexandre; Wunsch, Carl; Marotzke, Jochem; Toole, John

2000-11-01

The large scale Indian Ocean circulation is estimated from a global hydrographic inverse geostrophic box model with a focus on the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The global model is based on selected recent World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) sections which in the Indian Basin consist of zonal sections at 32°S, 20°S and 8°S, and a section between Bali and Australia from the Java-Australia Dynamic Experiment (JADE). The circulation is required to conserve mass, salinity, heat, silica and "PO" (170PO4+O2). Near-conservation is imposed within layers bounded by neutral surfaces, while permitting advective and diffusive exchanges between the layers. Conceptually, the derived circulation is an estimate of the average circulation for the period 1987-1995. A deep inflow into the Indian Basin of 11±4 Sv is found, which is in the lower range of previous estimates, but consistent with conservation requirements and the global data set. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is estimated at 15±5 Sv. The flow in the Mozambique Channel is of the same magnitude, implying a weak net flow between Madagascar and Australia. A net evaporation of -0.6±0.4 Sv is found between 32°S and 8°S, consistent with independent estimates. No net heat gain is found over the Indian Basin (0.1 ± 0.2PW north of 32°S) as a consequence of the large warm water influx from the ITF. Through the use of anomaly equations, the average dianeutral upwelling and diffusion between the sections are required and resolved, with values in the range 1-3×10-5 cm s-1 for the upwelling and 2-10 cm2 s-1 for the diffusivity.

Worldwide access to treatment for end-stage kidney disease: a systematic review.

PubMed

Liyanage, Thaminda; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Jha, Vivekanand; Neal, Bruce; Patrice, Halle Marie; Okpechi, Ikechi; Zhao, Ming-hui; Lv, Jicheng; Garg, Amit X; Knight, John; Rodgers, Anthony; Gallagher, Martin; Kotwal, Sradha; Cass, Alan; Perkovic, Vlado

2015-05-16

End-stage kidney disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Prevalence of the disease and worldwide use of renal replacement therapy (RRT) are expected to rise sharply in the next decade. We aimed to quantify estimates of this burden. We systematically searched Medline for observational studies and renal registries, and contacted national experts to obtain RRT prevalence data. We used Poisson regression to estimate the prevalence of RRT for countries without reported data. We estimated the gap between needed and actual RRT, and projected needs to 2030. In 2010, 2·618 million people received RRT worldwide. We estimated the number of patients needing RRT to be between 4·902 million (95% CI 4·438-5·431 million) in our conservative model and 9·701 million (8·544-11·021 million) in our high-estimate model, suggesting that at least 2·284 million people might have died prematurely because RRT could not be accessed. We noted the largest treatment gaps in low-income countries, particularly Asia (1·907 million people needing but not receiving RRT; conservative model) and Africa (432,000 people; conservative model). Worldwide use of RRT is projected to more than double to 5·439 million (3·899-7·640 million) people by 2030, with the most growth in Asia (0·968 million to a projected 2·162 million [1·571-3·014 million]). The large number of people receiving RRT and the substantial number without access to it show the need to both develop low-cost treatments and implement effective population-based prevention strategies. Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a Class of Simple and Effective Uncertainty Methods for Sparse Samples of Random Variables and Functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romero, Vicente; Bonney, Matthew; Schroeder, Benjamin

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a classmore » of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10 -4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.« less

Satellite-derived land covers for runoff estimation using SCS-CN method in Chen-You-Lan Watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wen-Yan; Lin, Chao-Yuan

2017-04-01

The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, which was originally developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, is widely used to estimate direct runoff volume from rainfall. The runoff Curve Number (CN) parameter is based on the hydrologic soil group and land use factors. In Taiwan, the national land use maps were interpreted from aerial photos in 1995 and 2008. Rapid updating of post-disaster land use map is limited due to the high cost of production, so the classification of satellite images is the alternative method to obtain the land use map. In this study, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Chen-You-Lan Watershed was derived from dry and wet season of Landsat imageries during 2003 - 2008. Land covers were interpreted from mean value and standard deviation of NDVI and were categorized into 4 groups i.e. forest, grassland, agriculture and bare land. Then, the runoff volume of typhoon events during 2005 - 2009 were estimated using SCS-CN method and verified with the measured runoff data. The result showed that the model efficiency coefficient is 90.77%. Therefore, estimating runoff by using the land cover map classified from satellite images is practicable.

Evaluation of Brazed Joints Using Failure Assessment Diagram

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flom, Yury

2012-01-01

Fitness-for service approach was used to perform structural analysis of the brazed joints consisting of several base metal / filler metal combinations. Failure Assessment Diagrams (FADs) based on tensile and shear stress ratios were constructed and experimentally validated. It was shown that such FADs can provide a conservative estimate of safe combinations of stresses in the brazed joints. Based on this approach, Margins of Safety (MS) of the brazed joints subjected to multi-axial loading conditions can be evaluated..

SWREGAP DATA TO ESTIMATE CHANGE IN WATERSHED CONDITION FOR SELECTED NEVADA WATERSHEDS USING A GIS-BASED HYDROLOGIC MODELING APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are an important contemporary requisite for almost all natural resource agencies. An overview of the utility of SWReGAP data for watershed assessment and conservation will be presented using specific examples in Nevad...

rSPACE: Spatially based power analysis for conservation and ecology

Treesearch

Martha M. Ellis; Jacob S. Ivan; Jody M. Tucker; Michael K. Schwartz

2015-01-01

1.) Power analysis is an important step in designing effective monitoring programs to detect trends in plant or animal populations. Although project goals often focus on detecting changes in population abundance, logistical constraints may require data collection on population indices, such as detection/non-detection data for occupancy estimation. 2.) We describe the...

Remote sensing of ecosystem health: opportunities, challenges, and future perspectives.

PubMed

Li, Zhaoqin; Xu, Dandan; Guo, Xulin

2014-11-07

Maintaining a healthy ecosystem is essential for maximizing sustainable ecological services of the best quality to human beings. Ecological and conservation research has provided a strong scientific background on identifying ecological health indicators and correspondingly making effective conservation plans. At the same time, ecologists have asserted a strong need for spatially explicit and temporally effective ecosystem health assessments based on remote sensing data. Currently, remote sensing of ecosystem health is only based on one ecosystem attribute: vigor, organization, or resilience. However, an effective ecosystem health assessment should be a comprehensive and dynamic measurement of the three attributes. This paper reviews opportunities of remote sensing, including optical, radar, and LiDAR, for directly estimating indicators of the three ecosystem attributes, discusses the main challenges to develop a remote sensing-based spatially-explicit comprehensive ecosystem health system, and provides some future perspectives. The main challenges to develop a remote sensing-based spatially-explicit comprehensive ecosystem health system are: (1) scale issue; (2) transportability issue; (3) data availability; and (4) uncertainties in health indicators estimated from remote sensing data. However, the Radarsat-2 constellation, upcoming new optical sensors on Worldview-3 and Sentinel-2 satellites, and improved technologies for the acquisition and processing of hyperspectral, multi-angle optical, radar, and LiDAR data and multi-sensoral data fusion may partly address the current challenges.

Identification of energy conservation research opportunities: a review and synthesis of the literature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hopp, W.J.; Hane, G.J.; Gurwell, W.E.

1982-03-01

Thirty-eight studies of energy conservation research opportunities are reviewed. The 38 studies chosen for review include many of the major efforts in the identification of energy conservation research and development (R and D) opportunities and provide a representative sample of the types of studies that have been performed. The sample includes studies that focus on specific energy use (e.g., auto transport), as well as studies that focus on specific types of research (e.g., materials science). The sample also includes studies that can be further contrasted in terms of long-term vs. short-term projects, evolutionary vs. revolutionary ideas, generic vs. process-specific activities,more » and technology base research vs. hardware development. Each of these perspectives contributes toward assuring coverage of the breadth of energy conservation R and D opportunities. In each review the technical or end-use focus is described, the research ideas identified in the study are listed, and a critical summary is given. The reviews also indicate whether the studies present end-use consumption data, estimate potential energy savings, estimate times to commercialization, summarize existing research programs, or describe the identification methodology. In Section 2.0 the various research studies are compared. In Section 3.0 the characteristics of an aggregate list of research ideas are discussed. The characteristics were collected from the research opportunities studies, which are included in Appendix A. Appendix A contains a compilation of energy conservation R and D opportunities arranged by energy end-use applications. Appendix B contains an outline of the format followed in writing the critical reviews of the studies, the individual study reviews, and the extended bibliography of 88 studies that describe energy conservation research opportunities.« less

Economic and ecological outcomes of flexible biodiversity offset systems.

PubMed

Habib, Thomas J; Farr, Daniel R; Schneider, Richard R; Boutin, Stan

2013-12-01

The commonly expressed goal of biodiversity offsets is to achieve no net loss of specific biological features affected by development. However, strict equivalency requirements may complicate trading of offset credits, increase costs due to restricted offset placement options, and force offset activities to focus on features that may not represent regional conservation priorities. Using the oil sands industry of Alberta, Canada, as a case study, we evaluated the economic and ecological performance of alternative offset systems targeting either ecologically equivalent areas (vegetation types) or regional conservation priorities (caribou and the Dry Mixedwood natural subregion). Exchanging dissimilar biodiversity elements requires assessment via a generalized metric; we used an empirically derived index of biodiversity intactness to link offsets with losses incurred by development. We considered 2 offset activities: land protection, with costs estimated as the net present value of profits of petroleum and timber resources to be paid as compensation to resource tenure holders, and restoration of anthropogenic footprint, with costs estimated from existing restoration projects. We used the spatial optimization tool MARXAN to develop hypothetical offset networks that met either the equivalent-vegetation or conservation-priority targets. Networks that required offsetting equivalent vegetation cost 2-17 times more than priority-focused networks. This finding calls into question the prudence of equivalency-based systems, particularly in relatively undeveloped jurisdictions, where conservation focuses on limiting and directing future losses. Priority-focused offsets may offer benefits to industry and environmental stakeholders by allowing for lower-cost conservation of valued ecological features and may invite discussion on what land-use trade-offs are acceptable when trading biodiversity via offsets. Resultados Económicos y Ecológicos de Sistemas de Compensación de Biodiversidad Flexible Habib et al. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Retrospective Assessment of Cost Savings From Prevention: Folic Acid Fortification and Spina Bifida in the U.S.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Berry, Robert J; Mick Tilford, J; Kucik, James E; Waitzman, Norman J

2016-05-01

Although fortification of food with folic acid has been calculated to be cost saving in the U.S., updated estimates are needed. This analysis calculates new estimates from the societal perspective of net cost savings per year associated with mandatory folic acid fortification of enriched cereal grain products in the U.S. that was implemented during 1997-1998. Estimates of annual numbers of live-born spina bifida cases in 1995-1996 relative to 1999-2011 based on birth defects surveillance data were combined during 2015 with published estimates of the present value of lifetime direct costs updated in 2014 U.S. dollars for a live-born infant with spina bifida to estimate avoided direct costs and net cost savings. The fortification mandate is estimated to have reduced the annual number of U.S. live-born spina bifida cases by 767, with a lower-bound estimate of 614. The present value of mean direct lifetime cost per infant with spina bifida is estimated to be $791,900, or $577,000 excluding caregiving costs. Using a best estimate of numbers of avoided live-born spina bifida cases, fortification is estimated to reduce the present value of total direct costs for each year's birth cohort by $603 million more than the cost of fortification. A lower-bound estimate of cost savings using conservative assumptions, including the upper-bound estimate of fortification cost, is $299 million. The estimates of cost savings are larger than previously reported, even using conservative assumptions. The analysis can also inform assessments of folic acid fortification in other countries. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An Estimate of the Total DNA in the Biosphere

PubMed Central

Landenmark, Hanna K. E.; Forgan, Duncan H.; Cockell, Charles S.

2015-01-01

Modern whole-organism genome analysis, in combination with biomass estimates, allows us to estimate a lower bound on the total information content in the biosphere: 5.3 × 1031 (±3.6 × 1031) megabases (Mb) of DNA. Given conservative estimates regarding DNA transcription rates, this information content suggests biosphere processing speeds exceeding yottaNOPS values (1024 Nucleotide Operations Per Second). Although prokaryotes evolved at least 3 billion years before plants and animals, we find that the information content of prokaryotes is similar to plants and animals at the present day. This information-based approach offers a new way to quantify anthropogenic and natural processes in the biosphere and its information diversity over time. PMID:26066900

An Estimate of the Total DNA in the Biosphere.

PubMed

Landenmark, Hanna K E; Forgan, Duncan H; Cockell, Charles S

2015-06-01

Modern whole-organism genome analysis, in combination with biomass estimates, allows us to estimate a lower bound on the total information content in the biosphere: 5.3 × 1031 (±3.6 × 1031) megabases (Mb) of DNA. Given conservative estimates regarding DNA transcription rates, this information content suggests biosphere processing speeds exceeding yottaNOPS values (1024 Nucleotide Operations Per Second). Although prokaryotes evolved at least 3 billion years before plants and animals, we find that the information content of prokaryotes is similar to plants and animals at the present day. This information-based approach offers a new way to quantify anthropogenic and natural processes in the biosphere and its information diversity over time.

Energy and maximum norm estimates for nonlinear conservation laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsson, Pelle; Oliger, Joseph

1994-01-01

We have devised a technique that makes it possible to obtain energy estimates for initial-boundary value problems for nonlinear conservation laws. The two major tools to achieve the energy estimates are a certain splitting of the flux vector derivative f(u)(sub x), and a structural hypothesis, referred to as a cone condition, on the flux vector f(u). These hypotheses are fulfilled for many equations that occur in practice, such as the Euler equations of gas dynamics. It should be noted that the energy estimates are obtained without any assumptions on the gradient of the solution u. The results extend to weak solutions that are obtained as point wise limits of vanishing viscosity solutions. As a byproduct we obtain explicit expressions for the entropy function and the entropy flux of symmetrizable systems of conservation laws. Under certain circumstances the proposed technique can be applied repeatedly so as to yield estimates in the maximum norm.

Workplace smoking related absenteeism and productivity costs in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Tsai, S; Wen, C; Hu, S; Cheng, T; Huang, S

2005-01-01

Objective: To estimate productivity losses and financial costs to employers caused by cigarette smoking in the Taiwan workplace. Methods: The human capital approach was used to calculate lost productivity. Assuming the value of lost productivity was equal to the wage/salary rate and basing the calculations on smoking rate in the workforce, average days of absenteeism, average wage/salary rate, and increased risk and absenteeism among smokers obtained from earlier research, costs due to smoker absenteeism were estimated. Financial losses caused by passive smoking, smoking breaks, and occupational injuries were calculated. Results: Using a conservative estimate of excess absenteeism from work, male smokers took off an average of 4.36 sick days and male non-smokers took off an average of 3.30 sick days. Female smokers took off an average of 4.96 sick days and non-smoking females took off an average of 3.75 sick days. Excess absenteeism caused by employee smoking was estimated to cost US$178 million per annum for males and US$6 million for females at a total cost of US$184 million per annum. The time men and women spent taking smoking breaks amounted to nine days per year and six days per year, respectively, resulting in reduced output productivity losses of US$733 million. Increased sick leave costs due to passive smoking were approximately US$81 million. Potential costs incurred from occupational injuries among smoking employees were estimated to be US$34 million. Conclusions: Financial costs caused by increased absenteeism and reduced productivity from employees who smoke are significant in Taiwan. Based on conservative estimates, total costs attributed to smoking in the workforce were approximately US$1032 million. PMID:15923446

Workplace smoking related absenteeism and productivity costs in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, S P; Wen, C P; Hu, S C; Cheng, T Y; Huang, S J

2005-06-01

To estimate productivity losses and financial costs to employers caused by cigarette smoking in the Taiwan workplace. The human capital approach was used to calculate lost productivity. Assuming the value of lost productivity was equal to the wage/salary rate and basing the calculations on smoking rate in the workforce, average days of absenteeism, average wage/salary rate, and increased risk and absenteeism among smokers obtained from earlier research, costs due to smoker absenteeism were estimated. Financial losses caused by passive smoking, smoking breaks, and occupational injuries were calculated. Using a conservative estimate of excess absenteeism from work, male smokers took off an average of 4.36 sick days and male non-smokers took off an average of 3.30 sick days. Female smokers took off an average of 4.96 sick days and non-smoking females took off an average of 3.75 sick days. Excess absenteeism caused by employee smoking was estimated to cost USD 178 million per annum for males and USD 6 million for females at a total cost of USD 184 million per annum. The time men and women spent taking smoking breaks amounted to nine days per year and six days per year, respectively, resulting in reduced output productivity losses of USD 733 million. Increased sick leave costs due to passive smoking were approximately USD 81 million. Potential costs incurred from occupational injuries among smoking employees were estimated to be USD 34 million. Financial costs caused by increased absenteeism and reduced productivity from employees who smoke are significant in Taiwan. Based on conservative estimates, total costs attributed to smoking in the workforce were approximately USD 1032 million.

Population density of red langurs in Sabangau tropical peat-swamp forest, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia.

PubMed

Ehlers Smith, David A; Ehlers Smith, Yvette C

2013-08-01

Because of the large-scale destruction of Borneo's rainforests on mineral soils, tropical peat-swamp forests (TPSFs) are increasingly essential for conserving remnant biodiversity, particularly in the lowlands where the majority of habitat conversion has occurred. Consequently, effective strategies for biodiversity conservation are required, which rely on accurate population density and distribution estimates as a baseline. We sought to establish the first population density estimates of the endemic red langur (Presbytis rubicunda) in Sabangau TPSF, the largest remaining contiguous lowland forest-block on Borneo. Using Distance sampling principles, we conducted line transect surveys in two of Sabangau's three principle habitat sub-classes and calculated group density at 2.52 groups km⁻² (95% CI 1.56-4.08) in the mixed-swamp forest sub-class. Based on an average recorded group size of 6.95 individuals, population density was 17.51 ind km⁻², the second highest density recorded in this species. The accessible area of the tall-interior forest, however, was too disturbed to yield density estimates representative of the entire sub-class, and P. rubicunda was absent from the low-pole forest, likely as a result of the low availability of the species' preferred foods. This absence in 30% of Sabangau's total area indicates the importance of in situ population surveys at the habitat-specific level for accurately informing conservation strategies. We highlight the conservation value of TPSFs for P. rubicunda given the high population density and large areas remaining, and recommend 1) quantifying the response of P. rubicunda to the logging and burning of its habitats; 2) surveying degraded TPSFs for viable populations, and 3) effectively delineating TPSF sub-class boundaries from remote imagery to facilitate population estimates across the wider peat landscape, given the stark contrast in densities found across the habitat sub-classes of Sabangau. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jardine, Sunny L.; Siikamäki, Juha V.

2014-10-01

Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha-1) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha-1). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological predictors, e.g. to assess the impacts of climate change on mangrove soil carbon stocks.

A review of some characteristics, socio-economic aspects and utilization of Zulu sheep: implications for conservation.

PubMed

Kunene, Nokuthula Winfred; Bezuidenhout, Carlos C; Nsahlai, Ignatius V; Nesamvuni, Edward A

2011-08-01

Zulu sheep are Nguni sheep of Zululand and are adapted to the harsh conditions of KwaZulu-Natal. They are used by rural farmers for economic purposes. Their numbers are declining, indicating a potential extinction threat. Knowledge of their phenotypic and genotypic characteristics is essential for conservation planning. In this review, there is a focus on the utilization, socio-economic aspects, phenotypic and genotypic characteristics as well as a proposed breeding programme. A survey has shown that rural farmers in the areas of northern KwaZulu-Natal prefer to keep this breed for its adaptability, resistance to diseases and meat quality. Zulu sheep are small-framed multi-coloured animals. Mature males weigh up to 38 kg and females up to 32 kg. Based on four morphological traits and live weight, phenotypic diversity between three populations was estimated at 48%. A genetic diversity between these three populations was estimated at 22%. Live weight of Zulu sheep can be estimated using the heart girth and wither height measurements. Scrotum circumference of young rams (up to 22 months old) is reliable for estimating the live weight. Animals that were characterized in the studies were grazed extensively and no supplements were provided. There is therefore a potential of weight increase if these animals are reared in a semi-extensive environment. An open nucleus breeding scheme is thus recommended for a sustainable use and conservation of this breed. For more conclusive results, larger numbers of phenotypic and genetic characteristics, in larger numbers of Zulu sheep populations, should be investigated.

Assessment of spatial distribution of soil loss over the upper basin of Miyun reservoir in China based on RS and GIS techniques.

PubMed

Chen, Tao; Niu, Rui-qing; Wang, Yi; Li, Ping-xiang; Zhang, Liang-pei; Du, Bo

2011-08-01

Soil conservation planning often requires estimates of the spatial distribution of soil erosion at a catchment or regional scale. This paper applied the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to investigate the spatial distribution of annual soil loss over the upper basin of Miyun reservoir in China. Among the soil erosion factors, which are rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), slope length (L), slope steepness (S), vegetation cover (C), and support practice factor (P), the vegetative cover or C factor, which represents the effects of vegetation canopy and ground covers in reducing soil loss, has been one of the most difficult to estimate over broad geographic areas. In this paper, the C factor was estimated based on back propagation neural network and the results were compared with the values measured in the field. The correlation coefficient (r) obtained was 0.929. Then the C factor and the other factors were used as the input to RUSLE model. By integrating the six factor maps in geographical information system (GIS) through pixel-based computing, the spatial distribution of soil loss over the upper basin of Miyun reservoir was obtained. The results showed that the annual average soil loss for the upper basin of Miyun reservoir was 9.86 t ha(-1) ya(-1) in 2005, and the area of 46.61 km(2) (0.3%) experiences extremely severe erosion risk, which needs suitable conservation measures to be adopted on a priority basis. The spatial distribution of erosion risk classes was 66.9% very low, 21.89% low, 6.18% moderate, 2.89% severe, and 1.84% very severe. Thus, by using RUSLE in a GIS environment, the spatial distribution of water erosion can be obtained and the regions which susceptible to water erosion and need immediate soil conservation planning and application over the upper watershed of Miyun reservoir in China can be identified.

A novel habitat-based approach to predict impacts of marine protected areas on fishers.

PubMed

Teixeira, João B; Moura, Rodrigo L; Mills, Morena; Klein, Carissa; Brown, Christopher J; Adams, Vanessa M; Grantham, Hedley; Watts, Matthew; Faria, Deborah; Amado-Filho, Gilberto M; Bastos, Alex C; Lourival, Reinaldo; Possingham, Hugh P

2017-06-24

While marine protected areas (MPAs) can simultaneously contribute to biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, the global network is biased towards particular ecosystem types, as it was largely established in an ad hoc fashion. The optimization of trade-offs between biodiversity benefits and socio-economic values increases implementation success and minimizes enforcement costs in the long run, but is often neglected in marine spatial planning (MSP). Although the acquisition of spatially explicit socioeconomic data is often perceived as a costly/secondary step in MSP, it is critical to account for lost opportunities by people whose activities will be restricted, especially fishers. Here we present an easily-reproducible habitat-based approach to estimate the spatial distribution of opportunity cost to fishers in data poor regions, assuming that the most accessible areas have higher values and their designation as no-take zones represents increased loss of fishing opportunities. Our method requires only habitat and bathymetric maps, a list of target species, the location of ports, and the relative importance for each port and/or vessel/gear type. The potential distribution of fishing resources is estimated from bathymetric ranges and benthic habitat distribution, while the relative importance of the different resources is estimated for each port, considering total catches (kg), revenues and/or stakeholder perception. Finally, the model can combine different cost layers to produce a comprehensive cost layer, and also allows for the evaluation of tradeoffs. The development of FishCake was based on data from a contentious conservation-planning arena (Abrolhos Bank, Brazil) in which attempts to expand MPA coverage failed due to fishers' resistance. The opportunity cost approach that we introduce herein allows for the incorporation of economic interests of different stakeholders and evaluation of tradeoffs among different stakeholder groups. The novel approach can be directly used to support conservation planning, in Abrolhos and elsewhere, and is expected to facilitate community consultation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Connectivity of wood thrush breeding, wintering, and migration sites based on range-wide tracking.

PubMed

Stanley, Calandra Q; McKinnon, Emily A; Fraser, Kevin C; Macpherson, Maggie P; Casbourn, Garth; Friesen, Lyle; Marra, Peter P; Studds, Colin; Ryder, T Brandt; Diggs, Nora E; Stutchbury, Bridget J M

2015-02-01

Many migratory animals are experiencing rapid population declines, but migration data with the geographic scope and resolution to quantify the complex network of movements between breeding and nonbreeding regions are often lacking. Determining the most frequently used migration routes and nonbreeding regions for a species is critical for understanding population dynamics and making effective conservation decisions. We tracked the migration of individual Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) (n = 102) from across their range with light-level geolocators and, for the first time, quantified migration routes and wintering regions for distinct breeding populations. We identified regional and species-level migratory connectivity networks for this declining songbird by combining our tracking results with range-wide breeding abundance estimates and forest cover data. More than 50% of the species occupied the eastern wintering range (Honduras to Costa Rica), a region that includes only one-third of all wintering habitat and that is undergoing intensive deforestation. We estimated that half of all Wood Thrushes in North America migrate south through Florida in fall, whereas in spring approximately 73% funnel northward through a narrow span along the central U.S. Gulf Coast (88-93°W). Identifying migratory networks is a critical step for conservation of songbirds and we demonstrated with Wood Thrushes how it can highlight conservation hotspots for regional populations and species as a whole. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

The special case of the 2 × 2 table: asymptotic unconditional McNemar test can be used to estimate sample size even for analysis based on GEE.

PubMed

Borkhoff, Cornelia M; Johnston, Patrick R; Stephens, Derek; Atenafu, Eshetu

2015-07-01

Aligning the method used to estimate sample size with the planned analytic method ensures the sample size needed to achieve the planned power. When using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to analyze a paired binary primary outcome with no covariates, many use an exact McNemar test to calculate sample size. We reviewed the approaches to sample size estimation for paired binary data and compared the sample size estimates on the same numerical examples. We used the hypothesized sample proportions for the 2 × 2 table to calculate the correlation between the marginal proportions to estimate sample size based on GEE. We solved the inside proportions based on the correlation and the marginal proportions to estimate sample size based on exact McNemar, asymptotic unconditional McNemar, and asymptotic conditional McNemar. The asymptotic unconditional McNemar test is a good approximation of GEE method by Pan. The exact McNemar is too conservative and yields unnecessarily large sample size estimates than all other methods. In the special case of a 2 × 2 table, even when a GEE approach to binary logistic regression is the planned analytic method, the asymptotic unconditional McNemar test can be used to estimate sample size. We do not recommend using an exact McNemar test. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Successive Invasion-Mediated Interspecific Hybridizations and Population Structure in the Endangered Cichlid Oreochromis mossambicus

PubMed Central

Firmat, Cyril; Alibert, Paul; Losseau, Michèle; Baroiller, Jean-François; Schliewen, Ulrich K.

2013-01-01

Hybridization between invasive and native species accounts among the major and pernicious threats to biodiversity. The Mozambique tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus, a widely used freshwater aquaculture species, is especially imperiled by this phenomenon since it is recognized by the IUCN as an endangered taxon due to genetic admixture with O. niloticus an invasive congeneric species. The Lower Limpopo and the intermittent Changane River (Mozambique) drain large wetlands of potentially great importance for conservation of O. mossambicus, but their populations have remained unstudied until today. Therefore we aimed (1) to estimate the autochthonous diversity and population structure among genetically pure O. mossambicus populations to provide a baseline for the conservation genetics of this endangered species, (2) to quantify and describe genetic variation of the invasive populations and investigate the most likely factors influencing their spread, (3) to identify O. mossambicus populations unaffected by hybridization. Bayesian assignment tests based on 423 AFLP loci and the distribution of 36 species-specific mitochondrial haplotypes both indicate a low frequency of invasive and hybrid genotypes throughout the system, but nevertheless reveal evidence for limited expansion of two alien species (O. niloticus and O. andersonii) and their hybrids in the Lower Limpopo. O. mossambicus populations with no traces of hybridization are identified. They exhibit a significant genetic structure. This contrasts with previously published estimates and provides rather promising auspices for the conservation of O. mossambicus. Especially, parts of the Upper Changane drainage and surrounding wetlands are identified as refugial zones for O. mossambicus populations. They should therefore receive high conservation priority and could represent valuable candidates for the development of aquaculture strains based on local genetic resources. PMID:23671704

An analytical particle mover for the charge- and energy-conserving, nonlinearly implicit, electrostatic particle-in-cell algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, G.; Chacón, L.

2013-08-01

We propose a 1D analytical particle mover for the recent charge- and energy-conserving electrostatic particle-in-cell (PIC) algorithm in Ref. [G. Chen, L. Chacón, D.C. Barnes, An energy- and charge-conserving, implicit, electrostatic particle-in-cell algorithm, Journal of Computational Physics 230 (2011) 7018-7036]. The approach computes particle orbits exactly for a given piece-wise linear electric field. The resulting PIC algorithm maintains the exact charge and energy conservation properties of the original algorithm, but with improved performance (both in efficiency and robustness against the number of particles and timestep). We demonstrate the advantageous properties of the scheme with a challenging multiscale numerical test case, the ion acoustic wave. Using the analytical mover as a reference, we demonstrate that the choice of error estimator in the Crank-Nicolson mover has significant impact on the overall performance of the implicit PIC algorithm. The generalization of the approach to the multi-dimensional case is outlined, based on a novel and simple charge conserving interpolation scheme.

Modeling Reef Fish Biomass, Recovery Potential, and Management Priorities in the Western Indian Ocean.

PubMed

McClanahan, Timothy R; Maina, Joseph M; Graham, Nicholas A J; Jones, Kendall R

2016-01-01

Fish biomass is a primary driver of coral reef ecosystem services and has high sensitivity to human disturbances, particularly fishing. Estimates of fish biomass, their spatial distribution, and recovery potential are important for evaluating reef status and crucial for setting management targets. Here we modeled fish biomass estimates across all reefs of the western Indian Ocean using key variables that predicted the empirical data collected from 337 sites. These variables were used to create biomass and recovery time maps to prioritize spatially explicit conservation actions. The resultant fish biomass map showed high variability ranging from ~15 to 2900 kg/ha, primarily driven by human populations, distance to markets, and fisheries management restrictions. Lastly, we assembled data based on the age of fisheries closures and showed that biomass takes ~ 25 years to recover to typical equilibrium values of ~1200 kg/ha. The recovery times to biomass levels for sustainable fishing yields, maximum diversity, and ecosystem stability or conservation targets once fishing is suspended was modeled to estimate temporal costs of restrictions. The mean time to recovery for the whole region to the conservation target was 8.1(± 3SD) years, while recovery to sustainable fishing thresholds was between 0.5 and 4 years, but with high spatial variation. Recovery prioritization scenario models included one where local governance prioritized recovery of degraded reefs and two that prioritized minimizing recovery time, where countries either operated independently or collaborated. The regional collaboration scenario selected remote areas for conservation with uneven national responsibilities and spatial coverage, which could undermine collaboration. There is the potential to achieve sustainable fisheries within a decade by promoting these pathways according to their social-ecological suitability.

Modeling Reef Fish Biomass, Recovery Potential, and Management Priorities in the Western Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

McClanahan, Timothy R.; Maina, Joseph M.; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Jones, Kendall R.

2016-01-01

Fish biomass is a primary driver of coral reef ecosystem services and has high sensitivity to human disturbances, particularly fishing. Estimates of fish biomass, their spatial distribution, and recovery potential are important for evaluating reef status and crucial for setting management targets. Here we modeled fish biomass estimates across all reefs of the western Indian Ocean using key variables that predicted the empirical data collected from 337 sites. These variables were used to create biomass and recovery time maps to prioritize spatially explicit conservation actions. The resultant fish biomass map showed high variability ranging from ~15 to 2900 kg/ha, primarily driven by human populations, distance to markets, and fisheries management restrictions. Lastly, we assembled data based on the age of fisheries closures and showed that biomass takes ~ 25 years to recover to typical equilibrium values of ~1200 kg/ha. The recovery times to biomass levels for sustainable fishing yields, maximum diversity, and ecosystem stability or conservation targets once fishing is suspended was modeled to estimate temporal costs of restrictions. The mean time to recovery for the whole region to the conservation target was 8.1(± 3SD) years, while recovery to sustainable fishing thresholds was between 0.5 and 4 years, but with high spatial variation. Recovery prioritization scenario models included one where local governance prioritized recovery of degraded reefs and two that prioritized minimizing recovery time, where countries either operated independently or collaborated. The regional collaboration scenario selected remote areas for conservation with uneven national responsibilities and spatial coverage, which could undermine collaboration. There is the potential to achieve sustainable fisheries within a decade by promoting these pathways according to their social-ecological suitability. PMID:27149673

Some conservation issues for the dynamical cores of NWP and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thuburn, J.

2008-03-01

The rationale for designing atmospheric numerical model dynamical cores with certain conservation properties is reviewed. The conceptual difficulties associated with the multiscale nature of realistic atmospheric flow, and its lack of time-reversibility, are highlighted. A distinction is made between robust invariants, which are conserved or nearly conserved in the adiabatic and frictionless limit, and non-robust invariants, which are not conserved in the limit even though they are conserved by exactly adiabatic frictionless flow. For non-robust invariants, a further distinction is made between processes that directly transfer some quantity from large to small scales, and processes involving a cascade through a continuous range of scales; such cascades may either be explicitly parameterized, or handled implicitly by the dynamical core numerics, accepting the implied non-conservation. An attempt is made to estimate the relative importance of different conservation laws. It is argued that satisfactory model performance requires spurious sources of a conservable quantity to be much smaller than any true physical sources; for several conservable quantities the magnitudes of the physical sources are estimated in order to provide benchmarks against which any spurious sources may be measured.

Conservation Status of the Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Northern Beibu Gulf, China.

PubMed

Chen, Bingyao; Xu, Xinrong; Jefferson, Thomas A; Olson, Paula A; Qin, Qiurong; Zhang, Hongke; He, Liwen; Yang, Guang

2016-01-01

There has been very little previous research on Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) in the Beibu Gulf of southern China. Here, we report on the population size, habitat and ecology, threats, and overall conservation status of this putative population. 'Population size' was estimated based on photo-identification mark/recapture analysis. It was estimated to number a total of 398-444 individuals (95% CI: 393-506), with two apparently distinct groups in the Dafengjiang-Nanliujiang Estuary and at Shatian-Caotan. Movements of dolphins in the Beibu Gulf appear to be limited, with high site fidelity. These dolphins were found to occur mainly in shallow coastal waters near estuaries. The main threats are fisheries interactions (including by-catch), vessel traffic, mariculture operations, dolphin-watching tourism, and habitat degradation (including marine construction activities and large-scale land reclamation). Although the conservation status of this putative population has been considered to be better than that of other populations of the species in more northern areas of China, there is still reason for strong concern about its future, and several management recommendations are made. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Dynamic multistate site occupancy models to evaluate hypotheses relevant to conservation of Golden Eagles in Denali National Park, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; McIntyre, Carol L.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Schmutz, Joel A.; MacCluskie, Margaret C.

2009-01-01

The recent development of multistate site occupancy models offers great opportunities to frame and solve decision problems for conservation that can be viewed in terms of site occupancy. These models have several characteristics (e.g., they account for detectability) that make them particularly well suited for addressing management and conservation problems. We applied multistate site occupancy models to evaluate hypotheses related to the conservation and management of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park, Alaska, and provided estimates of transition probabilities among three occupancy states for nesting areas (occupied with successful reproduction, occupied with unsuccessful reproduction, and unoccupied). Our estimation models included the effect of potential recreational activities (hikers) and environmental covariates such as a snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) index on transition probabilities among the three occupancy states. Based on the most parsimonious model, support for the hypothesis of an effect of potential human disturbance on site occupancy dynamics was equivocal. There was some evidence that potential human disturbance negatively affected local colonization of territories, but there was no evidence of an effect on reproductive performance parameters. In addition, models that assume a positive relationship between the hare index and successful reproduction were well supported by the data. The statistical approach that we used is particularly useful to parameterize management models that can then be used to make optimal decisions related to the management of Golden Eagles in Denali. Although in our case we were particularly interested in managing recreational activities, we believe that such models should be useful to for a broad class of management and conservation problems.

An epigenetic aging clock for dogs and wolves.

PubMed

Thompson, Michael J; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Horvath, Steve; Pellegrini, Matteo

2017-03-28

Several articles describe highly accurate age estimation methods based on human DNA-methylation data. It is not yet known whether similar epigenetic aging clocks can be developed based on blood methylation data from canids. Using Reduced Representation Bisulfite Sequencing, we assessed blood DNA-methylation data from 46 domesticated dogs ( Canis familiaris ) and 62 wild gray wolves ( C. lupus ). By regressing chronological dog age on the resulting CpGs, we defined highly accurate multivariate age estimators for dogs (based on 41 CpGs), wolves (67 CpGs), and both combined (115 CpGs). Age related DNA methylation changes in canids implicate similar gene ontology categories as those observed in humans suggesting an evolutionarily conserved mechanism underlying age-related DNA methylation in mammals.

An epigenetic aging clock for dogs and wolves

PubMed Central

Thompson, Michael J.; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Horvath, Steve; Pellegrini, Matteo

2017-01-01

Several articles describe highly accurate age estimation methods based on human DNA-methylation data. It is not yet known whether similar epigenetic aging clocks can be developed based on blood methylation data from canids. Using Reduced Representation Bisulfite Sequencing, we assessed blood DNA-methylation data from 46 domesticated dogs (Canis familiaris) and 62 wild gray wolves (C. lupus). By regressing chronological dog age on the resulting CpGs, we defined highly accurate multivariate age estimators for dogs (based on 41 CpGs), wolves (67 CpGs), and both combined (115 CpGs). Age related DNA methylation changes in canids implicate similar gene ontology categories as those observed in humans suggesting an evolutionarily conserved mechanism underlying age-related DNA methylation in mammals. PMID:28373601

Creating Protected Areas on Public Lands: Is There Room for Additional Conservation?

PubMed

Arriagada, Rodrigo A; Echeverria, Cristian M; Moya, Danisa E

2016-01-01

Most evaluations of the effectiveness of PAs have relied on indirect estimates based on comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Such methods can be biased when protection is not randomly assigned. We add to the growing literature on the impact of PAs by answering the following research questions: What is the impact of Chilean PAs on deforestation which occurred between 1986 and 2011? How do estimates of the impact of PAs vary when using only public land as control units? We show that the characteristics of the areas in which protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. To satisfactorily estimate the effects of PAs, we use matching methods to define adequate control groups, but not as in previous research. We construct control groups using separately non-protected private areas and non-protected public lands. We find that PAs avoid deforestation when using unprotected private lands as valid controls, however results show no impact when the control group is based only on unprotected public land. Different land management regimes, and higher levels of enforcement inside public lands may reduce the opportunity to add additional conservation benefits when the national systems for PAs are based on the protection of previously unprotected public lands. Given that not all PAs are established to avoid deforestation, results also admit the potential for future studies to include other outcomes including forest degradation (not just deforestation), biodiversity, wildlife, primary forests (not forests in general), among others.

Creating Protected Areas on Public Lands: Is There Room for Additional Conservation?

PubMed Central

Arriagada, Rodrigo A.; Echeverria, Cristian M.; Moya, Danisa E.

2016-01-01

Most evaluations of the effectiveness of PAs have relied on indirect estimates based on comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Such methods can be biased when protection is not randomly assigned. We add to the growing literature on the impact of PAs by answering the following research questions: What is the impact of Chilean PAs on deforestation which occurred between 1986 and 2011? How do estimates of the impact of PAs vary when using only public land as control units? We show that the characteristics of the areas in which protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. To satisfactorily estimate the effects of PAs, we use matching methods to define adequate control groups, but not as in previous research. We construct control groups using separately non-protected private areas and non-protected public lands. We find that PAs avoid deforestation when using unprotected private lands as valid controls, however results show no impact when the control group is based only on unprotected public land. Different land management regimes, and higher levels of enforcement inside public lands may reduce the opportunity to add additional conservation benefits when the national systems for PAs are based on the protection of previously unprotected public lands. Given that not all PAs are established to avoid deforestation, results also admit the potential for future studies to include other outcomes including forest degradation (not just deforestation), biodiversity, wildlife, primary forests (not forests in general), among others. PMID:26848856

Why Don't We Ask? A Complementary Method for Assessing the Status of Great Apes

PubMed Central

Meijaard, Erik; Mengersen, Kerrie; Buchori, Damayanti; Nurcahyo, Anton; Ancrenaz, Marc; Wich, Serge; Atmoko, Sri Suci Utami; Tjiu, Albertus; Prasetyo, Didik; Nardiyono; Hadiprakarsa, Yokyok; Christy, Lenny; Wells, Jessie; Albar, Guillaume; Marshall, Andrew J.

2011-01-01

Species conservation is difficult. Threats to species are typically high and immediate. Effective solutions for counteracting these threats, however, require synthesis of high quality evidence, appropriately targeted activities, typically costly implementation, and rapid re-evaluation and adaptation. Conservation management can be ineffective if there is insufficient understanding of the complex ecological, political, socio-cultural, and economic factors that underlie conservation threats. When information about these factors is incomplete, conservation managers may be unaware of the most urgent threats or unable to envision all consequences of potential management strategies. Conservation research aims to address the gap between what is known and what knowledge is needed for effective conservation. Such research, however, generally addresses a subset of the factors that underlie conservation threats, producing a limited, simplistic, and often biased view of complex, real world situations. A combination of approaches is required to provide the complete picture necessary to engage in effective conservation. Orangutan conservation (Pongo spp.) offers an example: standard conservation assessments employ survey methods that focus on ecological variables, but do not usually address the socio-cultural factors that underlie threats. Here, we evaluate a complementary survey method based on interviews of nearly 7,000 people in 687 villages in Kalimantan, Indonesia. We address areas of potential methodological weakness in such surveys, including sampling and questionnaire design, respondent biases, statistical analyses, and sensitivity of resultant inferences. We show that interview-based surveys can provide cost-effective and statistically robust methods to better understand poorly known populations of species that are relatively easily identified by local people. Such surveys provide reasonably reliable estimates of relative presence and relative encounter rates of such species, as well as quantifying the main factors that threaten them. We recommend more extensive use of carefully designed and implemented interview surveys, in conjunction with more traditional field methods. PMID:21483859

Adapting a Natura 2000 field guideline for a remote sensing-based assessment of heathland conservation status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Johannes; Fassnacht, Fabian Ewald; Neff, Christophe; Lausch, Angela; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Förster, Michael; Schmidtlein, Sebastian

2017-08-01

Remote sensing can be a valuable tool for supporting nature conservation monitoring systems. However, for many areas of conservation interest, there is still a considerable gap between field-based operational monitoring guidelines and the current remote sensing-based approaches. This hampers application in practice of the latter. Here, we propose a remote sensing approach for mapping the conservation status of Calluna-dominated Natura 2000 dwarf shrub habitats that is closely related to field mapping schemes. We transferred the evaluation criteria of the field guidelines to three related variables that can be captured by remote sensing: (1) coverage of the key species, (2) stand structural diversity, and (3) co-occurring species. Continuous information on these variables was obtained by regressing ground reference data from field surveys and UAV flights against airborne hyperspectral imagery. Merging the three resulting quality layers in an RGB representation allowed for illustrating the habitat quality in a continuous way. User-defined thresholds can be applied to this stack of quality layers to derive an overall assessment of habitat quality in terms of nature conservation, i.e. the conservation status. In our study, we found good accordance of the remotely sensed data with field-based information for the three variables key species, stand structural diversity and co-occurring vegetation (R2 of 0.79, 0.69, and 0.71, respectively) and it was possible to derive meaningful habitat quality maps. The conservation status could be derived with an accuracy of 65%. In interpreting these results it should be considered that the remote sensing based layers are independent estimates of habitat quality in their own right and not a mere replacement of the criteria used in the field guidelines. The approach is thought to be transferable to similar regions with minor adaptions. Our results refer to Calluna heathland which we consider a comparably easy target for remote sensing. Hence, the transfer of field guidelines to remote sensing indicators was rather successful in this case but needs further evaluation for other habitats.

Assessment of dietary intake of flavouring substances within the procedure for their safety evaluation: advantages and limitations of estimates obtained by means of a per capita method.

PubMed

Arcella, D; Leclercq, C

2005-01-01

The procedure for the safety evaluation of flavourings adopted by the European Commission in order to establish a positive list of these substances is a stepwise approach which was developed by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) and amended by the Scientific Committee on Food. Within this procedure, a per capita amount based on industrial poundage data of flavourings, is calculated to estimate the dietary intake by means of the maximised survey-derived daily intake (MSDI) method. This paper reviews the MSDI method in order to check if it can provide conservative intake estimates as needed at the first steps of a stepwise procedure. Scientific papers and opinions dealing with the MSDI method were reviewed. Concentration levels reported by the industry were compared with estimates obtained with the MSDI method. It appeared that, in some cases, these estimates could be orders of magnitude (up to 5) lower than those calculated considering concentration levels provided by the industry and regular consumption of flavoured foods and beverages. A critical review of two studies which had been used to support the statement that MSDI is a conservative method for assessing exposure to flavourings among high consumers was performed. Special attention was given to the factors that affect exposure at high percentiles, such as brand loyalty and portion sizes. It is concluded that these studies may not be suitable to validate the MSDI method used to assess intakes of flavours by European consumers due to shortcomings in the assumptions made and in the data used. Exposure assessment is an essential component of risk assessment. The present paper suggests that the MSDI method is not sufficiently conservative. There is therefore a clear need for either using an alternative method to estimate exposure to flavourings in the procedure or for limiting intakes to the levels at which the safety was assessed.

Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques

PubMed Central

Jones, Kelly W.; Lewis, David J.

2015-01-01

Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented—from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)—to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing ‘matching’ to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods—an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators—due to the presence of unobservable bias—that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that if time-invariant unobservables are not present, matching combined with differences in means or cross-sectional regression leads to similar estimates of program effectiveness as matching combined with fixed effects panel regression. These results highlight the importance of considering observable and unobservable forms of bias and the methodological assumptions across estimators when designing an impact evaluation of conservation programs. PMID:26501964

Residential Water Conservation in a Noncrisis Setting: Results of a New Jersey Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmini, Dennis J.; Shelton, Theodore B.

1982-08-01

East Brunswick Township, New Jersey, conducted a water conservation program in 1980 by distributing to 564 households free packets of water-saving devices purchased with municipal funds. The program was not a response to a current water supply crisis, and appeals for cooperation were based on the private economic benefits of water conservation. Statistical procedures were developed to measure the proportions of households installing each of the devices distributed, water savings and program costs. Two-thirds of the households receiving the packets installed at least one device. Average annual water savings per home receiving a packet were estimated at 5010 gallons (18.96 kl). Amortized over ten years at a 10% discount rate, the program cost was approximately 35 cents per 1000 gallons of water saved (9.2 cents per kl). The East Brunswick results compare well to the results obtained from similar conservation programs in a pair of California communities during the 1976-1977 drought.

Performance of Bootstrapping Approaches To Model Test Statistics and Parameter Standard Error Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nevitt, Jonathan; Hancock, Gregory R.

2001-01-01

Evaluated the bootstrap method under varying conditions of nonnormality, sample size, model specification, and number of bootstrap samples drawn from the resampling space. Results for the bootstrap suggest the resampling-based method may be conservative in its control over model rejections, thus having an impact on the statistical power associated…

Computing the Power-Density Spectrum for an Engineering Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, H. J.

1982-01-01

Computer program for calculating of power-density spectrum (PDS) from data base generated by Advanced Continuous Simulation Language (ACSL) uses algorithm that employs fast Fourier transform (FFT) to calculate PDS of variable. Accomplished by first estimating autocovariance function of variable and then taking FFT of smoothed autocovariance function to obtain PDS. Fast-Fourier-transform technique conserves computer resources.

Strategic conservation of orchard germplasm based on indigenous knowledge and genetic diversity: a case study of sour orange populations in China.

PubMed

Ming, Feng; Liu, Qi-Kun; Shi, Jin-Lei; Wang, Wei; Lu, Bao-Rong

2009-01-01

To effectively conserve sour orange (Citrus aurantium L.) germplasm on two islands at the estuary of the Yangtze River in China, we estimated genetic variation and relationships of the known parental trees and their proposed descendents (young trees) using the fingerprints of random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD). Results based on RAPD analyses showed considerable genetic diversity in the parental populations (H(e)=0.202). The overall populations including the parental and young trees showed slightly higher genetic diversity (H(e)=0.298) than the parents, with about 10% variation between populations. An unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean analysis dendrogram based on cluster analysis of the Jaccard similarity among individuals demonstrated a more complicated relationship of the parental and young trees from the two islands, although the young trees showed a clear association with parental trees. This indicates a significant contribution of parental trees in establishing the sour orange populations on the two islands. According to farmers' knowledge, conservation of only one or two parental trees would be sufficient because they believed that the whole populations were generated from a single mother tree. However, this study suggests that preserving most parental trees and some selected young trees with distant genetic relationships should be an effective conservation strategy for sour orange germplasm on the two islands.

Testing assumptions for conservation of migratory shorebirds and coastal managed wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collazo, Jaime; James Lyons,; Herring, Garth

2015-01-01

Managed wetlands provide critical foraging and roosting habitats for shorebirds during migration; therefore, ensuring their availability is a priority action in shorebird conservation plans. Contemporary shorebird conservation plans rely on a number of assumptions about shorebird prey resources and migratory behavior to determine stopover habitat requirements. For example, the US Shorebird Conservation Plan for the Southeast-Caribbean region assumes that average benthic invertebrate biomass in foraging habitats is 2.4 g dry mass m−2 and that the dominant prey item of shorebirds in the region is Chironomid larvae. For effective conservation and management, it is important to test working assumptions and update predictive models that are used to estimate habitat requirements. We surveyed migratory shorebirds and sampled the benthic invertebrate community in coastal managed wetlands of South Carolina. We sampled invertebrates at three points in time representing early, middle, and late stages of spring migration, and concurrently surveyed shorebird stopover populations at approximately 7-day intervals throughout migration. We used analysis of variance by ranks to test for temporal variation in invertebrate biomass and density, and we used a model based approach (linear mixed model and Monte Carlo simulation) to estimate mean biomass and density. There was little evidence of a temporal variation in biomass or density during the course of spring shorebird migration, suggesting that shorebirds did not deplete invertebrate prey resources at our site. Estimated biomass was 1.47 g dry mass m−2 (95 % credible interval 0.13–3.55), approximately 39 % lower than values used in the regional shorebird conservation plan. An additional 4728 ha (a 63 % increase) would be required if habitat objectives were derived from biomass levels observed in our study. Polychaetes, especially Laeonereis culveri(2569 individuals m−2), were the most abundant prey in foraging habitats at our site. Polychaetes have lower caloric content than levels assumed in the regional plan; when lower caloric content and lower biomass levels are used to determine habitat objectives, an additional 6395 ha would be required (86 % increase). Shorebird conservation and management plans would benefit from considering the uncertainty in parameters used to derive habitat objectives, especially biomass and caloric content of prey resources. Iterative testing of models that are specific to the planning region will provide rapid advances for management and conservation of migratory shorebirds and coastal managed wetlands.

A Conserved Current Solid-on-Solid Model on a Sierpinski Tetrahedron Substrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jin Min; Kang, Daeseung

2018-03-01

A conserved current solid-on-solid model with conservative noise on a 3D Sierpinski tetrahedron substrate is studied. The interface width W grows as t β , with β = 0.0396 ± 0.0009, and becomes saturated as L α, with α = 0.195±0.005, where L is the system size. The dynamic exponent z ≈ 4.92 is estimated from the relation z = α/β. These values satisfy a scaling relation α+z = 2z rw , where z rw is the random walk exponent of the fractal substrate. Our results are consistent with the values estimated from a fractional Langevin equation with a conservative noise.

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data

PubMed Central

Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

2016-01-01

Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed ‘hotspots’ of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species. PMID:27135614

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

PubMed

Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2016-01-01

Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

A simulation study of Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziegler, L. (Principal Investigator); Potter, J.

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The LACIE performance predictor (LPP) was used to replicate LACIE phase 2 for a 15 year period, using accuracy assessment results for phase 2 error components. Results indicated that the (LPP) simulated the LACIE phase 2 procedures reasonably well. For the 15 year simulation, only 7 of the 15 production estimates were within 10 percent of the true production. The simulations indicated that the acreage estimator, based on CAMS phase 2 procedures, has a negative bias. This bias was too large to support the 90/90 criterion with the CV observed and simulated for the phase 2 production estimator. Results of this simulation study validate the theory that the acreage variance estimator in LACIE was conservative.

Fluence-to-dose conversion coefficients for heavy ions calculated using the PHITS code and the ICRP/ICRU adult reference computational phantoms.

PubMed

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Endo, Akira; Niita, Koji

2010-04-21

The fluence to organ-absorbed-dose and effective-dose conversion coefficients for heavy ions with atomic numbers up to 28 and energies from 1 MeV/nucleon to 100 GeV/nucleon were calculated using the PHITS code coupled to the ICRP/ICRU adult reference computational phantoms, following the instruction given in ICRP Publication 103 (2007 (Oxford: Pergamon)). The conversion coefficients for effective dose equivalents derived using the radiation quality factors of both Q(L) and Q(y) relationships were also estimated, utilizing the functions for calculating the probability densities of absorbed dose in terms of LET (L) and lineal energy (y), respectively, implemented in PHITS. The calculation results indicate that the effective dose can generally give a conservative estimation of the effective dose equivalent for heavy-ion exposure, although it is occasionally too conservative especially for high-energy lighter-ion irradiations. It is also found from the calculation that the conversion coefficients for the Q(y)-based effective dose equivalents are generally smaller than the corresponding Q(L)-based values because of the conceptual difference between LET and y as well as the numerical incompatibility between the Q(L) and Q(y) relationships. The calculated data of these dose conversion coefficients are very useful for the dose estimation of astronauts due to cosmic-ray exposure.

Genetic evaluation of reproductive potential in the Zatorska goose under a conservation program.

PubMed

Graczyk, Magdalena; Andres, Krzysztof; Kapkowska, Ewa; Szwaczkowski, Tomasz

2018-05-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and inbreeding effect on the fertility, embryo mortality and hatchability traits in the Zatorska goose covered by the animal genetic resources conservation program. The material for this study contains information about results of hatching of 18 863 eggs from 721 dams and 168 sires, laid between 1998-2015. Genetic parameters were estimated based on the threshold animal model by the use of Restricted Maximum Likelihood and Gibbs sampling. The percentage of fertilized eggs ranged yearly between 37-80%. The percentage of embryo mortality was very low, ranging between 4.63-23.73%. The percentage of the hatched goslings from the total number of analyzed eggs was on average 33.18%, and 53.72% from fertilized eggs. On average based on both methods, the heritability estimates of the fertility, embryo mortality and hatchability reached 0.36, 0.07, 0.24 for males and 0.44, 0.11, 0.32 for females. The genetic trend had increasing tendency for fertility and hatchability and was stable for embryo mortality for both sexes. The obtained result shows that the Zatorska goose can be still maintained in the reserves of the local gene pool according to current rules and use in the local market as a breed with good reproductive potential. © 2018 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Safety envelope for load tolerance of structural element design based on multi-stage testing

DOE PAGES

Park, Chanyoung; Kim, Nam H.

2016-09-06

Structural elements, such as stiffened panels and lap joints, are basic components of aircraft structures. For aircraft structural design, designers select predesigned elements satisfying the design load requirement based on their load-carrying capabilities. Therefore, estimation of safety envelope of structural elements for load tolerances would be a good investment for design purpose. In this article, a method of estimating safety envelope is presented using probabilistic classification, which can estimate a specific level of failure probability under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An important contribution of this article is that the calculation uncertainty is reflected in building a safety envelope usingmore » Gaussian process, and the effect of element test data on reducing the calculation uncertainty is incorporated by updating the Gaussian process model with the element test data. It is shown that even one element test can significantly reduce the calculation uncertainty due to lacking knowledge of actual physics, so that conservativeness in a safety envelope is significantly reduced. The proposed approach was demonstrated with a cantilever beam example, which represents a structural element. The example shows that calculation uncertainty provides about 93% conservativeness against the uncertainty due to a few element tests. As a result, it is shown that even a single element test can increase the load tolerance modeled with the safety envelope by 20%.« less

Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, Matthias

2010-01-01

A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species- and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity.

Foreword: Contributions of Arctic PRISM to monitoring western hemispheric shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Smith, Paul A.; Andres, Brad A.; Donaldson, Garry; Brown, Stephen; Bart, Jonathan R.; Johnston, Victoria H.

2012-01-01

Long-term monitoring of populations is of paramount importance to understanding responses of organisms to global environmental change and to evaluating whether conservation practices are yielding intended results through time (Wiens 2009). The population status of many shorebird species, the focus of this volume, remain poorly known. Long-distance migrant shorebirds have proven particularly difficult to monitor, in part because of their highly inaccessible regions. As migrant shorebirds travel the length of the hemisphere, the congregate and disperse in ways that vary among species, locations, and years, presenting serious challenges to designing and implementing monitoring programs. Rigorous field and quantitative methods that estimate population size and monitor trends are vitally needed to direct and evaluate effective conservation measures. Many management efforts depend on unbiased population size estimates; for examples, the shorebird conservation plans for both Canada and the United States seek to restore populations to levels calculated for the 1970s based on the best information available from existing surveys. Further, federal wildlife agencies within the United States and Canada have mandates to understand the state of their nations' resources under various conventions for the protection of migratory birds. Accurate estimates of population size are vital statistics for a variety of conservation activities, such as prioritizing species for conservation action and setting management targets. Areas of essential habitat, such as those designated under the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network, the Important Bird Areas program of BirdLife Internationals and the National Audubon Society, or Canada's National Wildlife Areas program, are all evaluated on the basis of proportions of species' populations which they contain. The size, and trends in size, of a species' population are considered key information for assessing its vulnerability and subsequent listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. To meet the need for information on population size and trends, shorebird biologists from Canada and the United States proposed a shared blueprint for shorebird monitoring across the Western Hemisphere in the late 1990s; this effort was undertaken in concert with the development of the Canadian and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plans. Soon thereafter, partners in the monitoring effort adopted the name "Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring" (PRISM). Among the primary objectives of PRISM were to estimate the population sizes and trends of breeding North American shorebirds and describe their distributions. PRISM members evaluated ongoing and potential monitoring approached to address 74 taxa (including subspecies) and proposed a combination of arctic and boreal breeding surveys, temperate breeding and non-breeding surveys, and neotropical surveys.

Estimating reaction rate coefficients within a travel-time modeling framework.

PubMed

Gong, R; Lu, C; Wu, W-M; Cheng, H; Gu, B; Watson, D; Jardine, P M; Brooks, S C; Criddle, C S; Kitanidis, P K; Luo, J

2011-01-01

A generalized, efficient, and practical approach based on the travel-time modeling framework is developed to estimate in situ reaction rate coefficients for groundwater remediation in heterogeneous aquifers. The required information for this approach can be obtained by conducting tracer tests with injection of a mixture of conservative and reactive tracers and measurements of both breakthrough curves (BTCs). The conservative BTC is used to infer the travel-time distribution from the injection point to the observation point. For advection-dominant reactive transport with well-mixed reactive species and a constant travel-time distribution, the reactive BTC is obtained by integrating the solutions to advective-reactive transport over the entire travel-time distribution, and then is used in optimization to determine the in situ reaction rate coefficients. By directly working on the conservative and reactive BTCs, this approach avoids costly aquifer characterization and improves the estimation for transport in heterogeneous aquifers which may not be sufficiently described by traditional mechanistic transport models with constant transport parameters. Simplified schemes are proposed for reactive transport with zero-, first-, nth-order, and Michaelis-Menten reactions. The proposed approach is validated by a reactive transport case in a two-dimensional synthetic heterogeneous aquifer and a field-scale bioremediation experiment conducted at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The field application indicates that ethanol degradation for U(VI)-bioremediation is better approximated by zero-order reaction kinetics than first-order reaction kinetics. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Estimating Reaction Rate Coefficients Within a Travel-Time Modeling Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gong, R; Lu, C; Luo, Jian

A generalized, efficient, and practical approach based on the travel-time modeling framework is developed to estimate in situ reaction rate coefficients for groundwater remediation in heterogeneous aquifers. The required information for this approach can be obtained by conducting tracer tests with injection of a mixture of conservative and reactive tracers and measurements of both breakthrough curves (BTCs). The conservative BTC is used to infer the travel-time distribution from the injection point to the observation point. For advection-dominant reactive transport with well-mixed reactive species and a constant travel-time distribution, the reactive BTC is obtained by integrating the solutions to advective-reactive transportmore » over the entire travel-time distribution, and then is used in optimization to determine the in situ reaction rate coefficients. By directly working on the conservative and reactive BTCs, this approach avoids costly aquifer characterization and improves the estimation for transport in heterogeneous aquifers which may not be sufficiently described by traditional mechanistic transport models with constant transport parameters. Simplified schemes are proposed for reactive transport with zero-, first-, nth-order, and Michaelis-Menten reactions. The proposed approach is validated by a reactive transport case in a two-dimensional synthetic heterogeneous aquifer and a field-scale bioremediation experiment conducted at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The field application indicates that ethanol degradation for U(VI)-bioremediation is better approximated by zero-order reaction kinetics than first-order reaction kinetics.« less

Standardizing the double-observer survey method for estimating mountain ungulate prey of the endangered snow leopard.

PubMed

Suryawanshi, Kulbhushansingh R; Bhatnagar, Yash Veer; Mishra, Charudutt

2012-07-01

Mountain ungulates around the world have been threatened by illegal hunting, habitat modification, increased livestock grazing, disease and development. Mountain ungulates play an important functional role in grasslands as primary consumers and as prey for wild carnivores, and monitoring of their populations is important for conservation purposes. However, most of the several currently available methods of estimating wild ungulate abundance are either difficult to implement or too expensive for mountainous terrain. A rigorous method of sampling ungulate abundance in mountainous areas that can allow for some measure of sampling error is therefore much needed. To this end, we used a combination of field data and computer simulations to test the critical assumptions associated with double-observer technique based on capture-recapture theory. The technique was modified and adapted to estimate the populations of bharal (Pseudois nayaur) and ibex (Capra sibirica) at five different sites. Conducting the two double-observer surveys simultaneously led to underestimation of the population by 15%. We therefore recommend separating the surveys in space or time. The overall detection probability for the two observers was 0.74 and 0.79. Our surveys estimated mountain ungulate populations (± 95% confidence interval) of 735 (± 44), 580 (± 46), 509 (± 53), 184 (± 40) and 30 (± 14) individuals at the five sites, respectively. A detection probability of 0.75 was found to be sufficient to detect a change of 20% in populations of >420 individuals. Based on these results, we believe that this method is sufficiently precise for scientific and conservation purposes and therefore recommend the use of the double-observer approach (with the two surveys separated in time or space) for the estimation and monitoring of mountain ungulate populations.

A Regional Assessment of the Effects of Conservation Practices on In-stream Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, A. M.; Alexander, R. B.; Arnold, J.; Norfleet, L.; Robertson, D. M.; White, M.

2011-12-01

The Conservation Effects Assessment Program (CEAP), initiated by USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), has the goal of quantifying the environmental benefits of agricultural conservation practices. As part of this effort, detailed farmer surveys were compiled to document the adoption of conservation practices. Survey data showed that up to 38 percent of cropland in the Upper Mississippi River basin is managed to reduce sediment, nutrient and pesticide loads from agricultural activities. The broader effects of these practices on downstream water quality are challenging to quantify. The USDA-NRCS recently reported results of a study that combined farmer surveys with process-based models to deduce the effect of conservation practices on sediment and chemical loads in farm runoff and downstream waters. As a follow-up collaboration, USGS and USDA scientists conducted a semi-empirical assessment of the same suite of practices using the USGS SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) modeling framework. SPARROW is a hybrid statistical and mechanistic stream water quality model of annual conditions that has been used extensively in studies of nutrient sources and delivery. In this assessment, the USDA simulations of the effects of conservation practices on loads in farm runoff were used as an explanatory variable (i.e., change in farm loads per unit area) in a component of an existing a SPARROW model of the Upper Midwest. The model was then re-calibrated and tested to determine whether the USDA estimate of conservation adoption intensity explained a statistically significant proportion of the spatial variability in stream nutrient loads in the Upper Mississippi River basin. The results showed that the suite of conservation practices that NRCS has catalogued as complete nutrient and sediment management are a statistically significant feature in the Midwestern landscape associated with phosphorous runoff and delivery to downstream waters. Effects on the delivery of nitrogen will be also be studied. Estimates of the magnitude of this effect using SPARROW indicated that phosphorus load reductions ranged from about 2 - 38% for various spatial scales. This is less than reported by the USDA CEAP simulations, which ranged from 15 - 49%. Nevertheless, the results indicated that conservation practices play a significant role in reducing phosphorus pollution from agricultural activities to downstream receiving water bodies.

Spatiotemporal requirements of the Hainan gibbon: Does home range constrain recovery of the world's rarest ape?

PubMed

Bryant, Jessica V; Zeng, Xingyuan; Hong, Xiaojiang; Chatterjee, Helen J; Turvey, Samuel T

2017-03-01

Conservation management requires an evidence-based approach, as uninformed decisions can signify the difference between species recovery and loss. The Hainan gibbon, the world's rarest ape, reportedly exploits the largest home range of any gibbon species, with these apparently large spatial requirements potentially limiting population recovery. However, previous home range assessments rarely reported survey methods, effort, or analytical approaches, hindering critical evaluation of estimate reliability. For extremely rare species where data collection is challenging, it also is unclear what impact such limitations have on estimating home range requirements. We re-evaluated Hainan gibbon spatial ecology using 75 hr of observations from 35 contact days over 93 field-days across dry (November 2010-February 2011) and wet (June 2011-September 2011) seasons. We calculated home range area for three social groups (N = 21 individuals) across the sampling period, seasonal estimates for one group (based on 24 days of observation; 12 days per season), and between-group home range overlap using multiple approaches (Minimum Convex Polygon, Kernel Density Estimation, Local Convex Hull, Brownian Bridge Movement Model), and assessed estimate reliability and representativeness using three approaches (Incremental Area Analysis, spatial concordance, and exclusion of expected holes). We estimated a yearly home range of 1-2 km 2 , with 1.49 km 2 closest to the median of all estimates. Although Hainan gibbon spatial requirements are relatively large for gibbons, our new estimates are smaller than previous estimates used to explain the species' limited recovery, suggesting that habitat availability may be less important in limiting population growth. We argue that other ecological, genetic, and/or anthropogenic factors are more likely to constrain Hainan gibbon recovery, and conservation attention should focus on elucidating and managing these factors. Re-evaluation reveals Hainan gibbon home range as c. 1-2 km 2 . Hainan gibbon home range is, therefore, similar to other Nomascus gibbons. Limited data for extremely rare species does not necessarily prevent derivation of robust home range estimates. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Decision-Scaling: A Decision Framework for DoD Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

Therefore, the “probabilities” estimated in the case study cannot be interpreted in the traditional sense of probability distributions based on ...Force Academy. In each case study , the entire methodology is presented, although most of the emphasis for this report is placed on framing the energy...conservative side compared with weather data that has been adjusted for rising temperature. Based on the case studies examined so far, however, it is

Remote Sensing of Ecosystem Health: Opportunities, Challenges, and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

Li, Zhaoqin; Xu, Dandan; Guo, Xulin

2014-01-01

Maintaining a healthy ecosystem is essential for maximizing sustainable ecological services of the best quality to human beings. Ecological and conservation research has provided a strong scientific background on identifying ecological health indicators and correspondingly making effective conservation plans. At the same time, ecologists have asserted a strong need for spatially explicit and temporally effective ecosystem health assessments based on remote sensing data. Currently, remote sensing of ecosystem health is only based on one ecosystem attribute: vigor, organization, or resilience. However, an effective ecosystem health assessment should be a comprehensive and dynamic measurement of the three attributes. This paper reviews opportunities of remote sensing, including optical, radar, and LiDAR, for directly estimating indicators of the three ecosystem attributes, discusses the main challenges to develop a remote sensing-based spatially-explicit comprehensive ecosystem health system, and provides some future perspectives. The main challenges to develop a remote sensing-based spatially-explicit comprehensive ecosystem health system are: (1) scale issue; (2) transportability issue; (3) data availability; and (4) uncertainties in health indicators estimated from remote sensing data. However, the Radarsat-2 constellation, upcoming new optical sensors on Worldview-3 and Sentinel-2 satellites, and improved technologies for the acquisition and processing of hyperspectral, multi-angle optical, radar, and LiDAR data and multi-sensoral data fusion may partly address the current challenges. PMID:25386759

Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

2016-04-01

The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

Handling of thermal paper: Implications for dermal exposure to bisphenol A and its alternatives

PubMed Central

Bernier, Meghan R.

2017-01-01

Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine disrupting chemical used in a wide range of consumer products including photoactive dyes used in thermal paper. Recent studies have shown that dermal absorption of BPA can occur when handling these papers. Yet, regulatory agencies have largely dismissed thermal paper as a major source of BPA exposure. Exposure estimates provided by agencies such as the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) are based on assumptions about how humans interact with this material, stating that ‘typical’ exposures for adults involve only one handling per day for short periods of time (<1 minute), with limited exposure surfaces (three fingertips). The objective of this study was to determine how individuals handle thermal paper in one common setting: a cafeteria providing short-order meals. We observed thermal paper handling in a college-aged population (n = 698 subjects) at the University of Massachusetts’ dining facility. We find that in this setting, individuals handle receipts for an average of 11.5 min, that >30% of individuals hold thermal paper with more than three fingertips, and >60% allow the paper to touch their palm. Only 11% of the participants we observed were consistent with the EFSA model for time of contact and dermal surface area. Mathematical modeling based on handling times we measured and previously published transfer coefficients, concentrations of BPA in paper, and absorption factors indicate the most conservative estimated intake from handling thermal paper in this population is 51.1 ng/kg/day, similar to EFSA’s estimates of 59 ng/kg/day from dermal exposures. Less conservative estimates, using published data on concentrations in thermal paper and transfer rates to skin, indicate that exposures are likely significantly higher. Based on our observational data, we propose that the current models for estimating dermal BPA exposures are not consistent with normal human behavior and should be reevaluated. PMID:28570582

Handling of thermal paper: Implications for dermal exposure to bisphenol A and its alternatives.

PubMed

Bernier, Meghan R; Vandenberg, Laura N

2017-01-01

Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine disrupting chemical used in a wide range of consumer products including photoactive dyes used in thermal paper. Recent studies have shown that dermal absorption of BPA can occur when handling these papers. Yet, regulatory agencies have largely dismissed thermal paper as a major source of BPA exposure. Exposure estimates provided by agencies such as the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) are based on assumptions about how humans interact with this material, stating that 'typical' exposures for adults involve only one handling per day for short periods of time (<1 minute), with limited exposure surfaces (three fingertips). The objective of this study was to determine how individuals handle thermal paper in one common setting: a cafeteria providing short-order meals. We observed thermal paper handling in a college-aged population (n = 698 subjects) at the University of Massachusetts' dining facility. We find that in this setting, individuals handle receipts for an average of 11.5 min, that >30% of individuals hold thermal paper with more than three fingertips, and >60% allow the paper to touch their palm. Only 11% of the participants we observed were consistent with the EFSA model for time of contact and dermal surface area. Mathematical modeling based on handling times we measured and previously published transfer coefficients, concentrations of BPA in paper, and absorption factors indicate the most conservative estimated intake from handling thermal paper in this population is 51.1 ng/kg/day, similar to EFSA's estimates of 59 ng/kg/day from dermal exposures. Less conservative estimates, using published data on concentrations in thermal paper and transfer rates to skin, indicate that exposures are likely significantly higher. Based on our observational data, we propose that the current models for estimating dermal BPA exposures are not consistent with normal human behavior and should be reevaluated.

Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change.

PubMed

Schueler, Silvio; Falk, Wolfgang; Koskela, Jarkko; Lefèvre, François; Bozzano, Michele; Hubert, Jason; Kraigher, Hojka; Longauer, Roman; Olrik, Ditte C

2014-05-01

A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A priori error estimates for an hp-version of the discontinuous Galerkin method for hyperbolic conservation laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bey, Kim S.; Oden, J. Tinsley

1993-01-01

A priori error estimates are derived for hp-versions of the finite element method for discontinuous Galerkin approximations of a model class of linear, scalar, first-order hyperbolic conservation laws. These estimates are derived in a mesh dependent norm in which the coefficients depend upon both the local mesh size h(sub K) and a number p(sub k) which can be identified with the spectral order of the local approximations over each element.

Test of partners in flight effective detection distance for Cerulean Warbler / Evaluación de distancia efectiva de detección para la Reinita Cerúlea (Dendroica cerulea) seleccionada por Compañeros En Vuelo

Treesearch

Paul Hamel; Melinda J. Welton; Carl G. Smith; Robert R. Ford

2008-01-01

Estimation of population sizes of North American avian species has been attempted in the North American Landbird Conservation Plan. Such estimated numbers have considerable conservation value as starting points to estimate extinction probability, as was done for Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) during the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service evaluation of the petition to...

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change.

PubMed

Queirós, Ana M; Huebert, Klaus B; Keyl, Friedemann; Fernandes, Jose A; Stolte, Willem; Maar, Marie; Kay, Susan; Jones, Miranda C; Hamon, Katell G; Hendriksen, Gerrit; Vermard, Youen; Marchal, Paul; Teal, Lorna R; Somerfield, Paul J; Austen, Melanie C; Barange, Manuel; Sell, Anne F; Allen, Icarus; Peck, Myron A

2016-12-01

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identifying taxonomic and functional surrogates for spring biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Virtanen, Risto; Ilmonen, Jari; Paasivirta, Lauri; Muotka, Timo

2018-02-27

Surrogate approaches are widely used to estimate overall taxonomic diversity for conservation planning. Surrogate taxa are frequently selected based on rarity or charisma, whereas selection through statistical modeling has been applied rarely. We used boosted-regression-tree models (BRT) fitted to biological data from 165 springs to identify bryophyte and invertebrate surrogates for taxonomic and functional diversity of boreal springs. We focused on these 2 groups because they are well known and abundant in most boreal springs. The best indicators of taxonomic versus functional diversity differed. The bryophyte Bryum weigelii and the chironomid larva Paratrichocladius skirwithensis best indicated taxonomic diversity, whereas the isopod Asellus aquaticus and the chironomid Macropelopia spp. were the best surrogates of functional diversity. In a scoring algorithm for priority-site selection, taxonomic surrogates performed only slightly better than random selection for all spring-dwelling taxa, but they were very effective in representing spring specialists, providing a distinct improvement over random solutions. However, the surrogates for taxonomic diversity represented functional diversity poorly and vice versa. When combined with cross-taxon complementarity analyses, surrogate selection based on statistical modeling provides a promising approach for identifying groundwater-dependent ecosystems of special conservation value, a key requirement of the EU Water Framework Directive. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

Conservation Status and Threat Assessments for North American Crop Wild Relatives

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Conservation status and threat assessments evaluate species’ relative risks of extinction globally, regionally, nationally, or locally, and estimate the degree to which populations of species are already safeguarded in existing conservation systems, with the aim of exposing the critical gaps in curr...

75 FR 62739 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards; Notice of Intent

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-13

..., as described in Chapter 3 of the TAR. \\17\\ The fuel prices used are based on the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2010, which includes an estimated gasoline price in 2025 of approximately... (CAA) and the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), as amended by the Energy Independence and...

Influence of time of concentration on variation of runoff from a small urbanized watershed

Treesearch

Devendra Amatya; Agnieszka Cupak; Andrzej Walega

2015-01-01

The main objective of the paper is to estimate the influence of time of concentration (TC) on maximum flow in an urbanized watershed. The calculations of maximum flow have been carried out using the Rational method, Technical Release 55 (TR55) procedure based on NRCS (National Resources Conservation Services) guidelines, and NRCS-UH rainfall-runoff model. Similarly,...

Estimating emissions from adhesives and sealants uses and manufacturing for environmental risk assessments.

PubMed

Tolls, Johannes; Gómez, Divina; Guhl, Walter; Funk, Torsten; Seger, Erich; Wind, Thorsten

2016-01-01

Regulation (EC) No 1907/2006 concerning the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) requires that environmental exposure assessments be performed for all uses of dangerous substances that are marketed in the European Union in quantities above 10 tons per year. The quantification of emissions to the environment is a key step in this process. This publication describes the derivation of release factors and gives guidance for estimating use rates for quantifying the emissions from the manufacturing and application of adhesives and sealants. Release factors available for coatings and paints are read across to adhesives or sealants based on similarities between these 2 product groups with regard to chemical composition and to processing during manufacturing and application. The granular emission scenarios in these documents are mapped to the broad emission scenarios for adhesives or sealants. According to the mapping, the worst-case release factors for coatings or paints are identified and assigned to the adhesives or sealants scenarios. The resulting 10 specific environmental release categories (SPERCs) for adhesives and sealants are defined by differentiating between solvent and nonsolvent ingredients and between water-borne and solvent-borne or solvent-free products. These cover the vast majority of the production processes and uses and are more realistic than the 5 relevant emission estimation defaults provided in the REACH guidance. They are accompanied with adhesive or sealant consumption rates in the EU and with guidance for estimating conservative substance use rates at a generic level. The approach of combining conservative SPERC release factors with conservative estimates of substance rates is likely to yield emission estimates that tend to overpredict actual releases. Because this qualifies the approach for use in lower-tier environmental exposure assessment, the Association of the European Adhesive & Sealant Industry (FEICA) SPERCs are available in several exposure assessment tools that are used under REACH. Given the limited regional variation in the manufacturing and use processes of adhesives and sealants, the SPERCs may be applicable for emission estimation not only in the EU but also in other regions. © 2015 SETAC.

Using occupancy estimation to assess the effectiveness of a regional multiple-species conservation plan: bats in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Theodore Weller

2008-01-01

Regional conservation plans are increasingly used to plan for and protect biodiversity at large spatial scales however the means of quantitatively evaluating their effectiveness are rarely specified. Multiple-species approaches, particular those which employ site-occupancy estimation, have been proposed as robust and efficient alternatives for assessing the status of...

The generation of simple compliance boundaries for mobile communication base station antennas using formulae for SAR estimation.

PubMed

Thors, B; Hansson, B; Törnevik, C

2009-07-07

In this paper, a procedure is proposed for generating simple and practical compliance boundaries for mobile communication base station antennas. The procedure is based on a set of formulae for estimating the specific absorption rate (SAR) in certain directions around a class of common base station antennas. The formulae, given for both whole-body and localized SAR, require as input the frequency, the transmitted power and knowledge of antenna-related parameters such as dimensions, directivity and half-power beamwidths. With knowledge of the SAR in three key directions it is demonstrated how simple and practical compliance boundaries can be generated outside of which the exposure levels do not exceed certain limit values. The conservativeness of the proposed procedure is discussed based on results from numerical radio frequency (RF) exposure simulations with human body phantoms from the recently developed Virtual Family.

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

PubMed

Drum, Ryan G; Ribic, Christine A; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

2015-01-01

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes

PubMed Central

Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine A.; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

2015-01-01

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds. PMID:26569108

Designing conservation strategies to preserve the genetic diversity of Astragalus edulis Bunge, an endangered species from western Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Peñas, Julio; Barrios, Sara; Bobo-Pinilla, Javier; Lorite, Juan; Martínez-Ortega, M Montserrat

2016-01-01

Astragalus edulis (Fabaceae) is an endangered annual species from the western Mediterranean region that colonized the SE Iberian Peninsula, NE and SW Morocco, and the easternmost Macaronesian islands (Lanzarote and Fuerteventura). Although in Spain some conservation measures have been adopted, it is still necessary to develop an appropriate management plan to preserve genetic diversity across the entire distribution area of the species. Our main objective was to use population genetics as well as ecological and phylogeographic data to select Relevant Genetic Units for Conservation (RGUCs) as the first step in designing conservation plans for A. edulis. We identified six RGUCs for in situ conservation, based on estimations of population genetic structure and probabilities of loss of rare alleles. Additionally, further population parameters, i.e. occupation area, population size, vulnerability, legal status of the population areas, and the historical haplotype distribution, were considered in order to establish which populations deserve conservation priority. Three populations from the Iberian Peninsula, two from Morocco, and one from the Canary Islands represent the total genetic diversity of the species and the rarest allelic variation. Ex situ conservation is recommended to complement the preservation of A. edulis, given that effective in situ population protection is not feasible in all cases. The consideration of complementary phylogeographic and ecological data is useful for management efforts to preserve the evolutionary potential of the species.

Designing conservation strategies to preserve the genetic diversity of Astragalus edulis Bunge, an endangered species from western Mediterranean region

PubMed Central

Barrios, Sara; Bobo-Pinilla, Javier; Lorite, Juan; Martínez-Ortega, M. Montserrat

2016-01-01

Astragalus edulis (Fabaceae) is an endangered annual species from the western Mediterranean region that colonized the SE Iberian Peninsula, NE and SW Morocco, and the easternmost Macaronesian islands (Lanzarote and Fuerteventura). Although in Spain some conservation measures have been adopted, it is still necessary to develop an appropriate management plan to preserve genetic diversity across the entire distribution area of the species. Our main objective was to use population genetics as well as ecological and phylogeographic data to select Relevant Genetic Units for Conservation (RGUCs) as the first step in designing conservation plans for A. edulis. We identified six RGUCs for in situ conservation, based on estimations of population genetic structure and probabilities of loss of rare alleles. Additionally, further population parameters, i.e. occupation area, population size, vulnerability, legal status of the population areas, and the historical haplotype distribution, were considered in order to establish which populations deserve conservation priority. Three populations from the Iberian Peninsula, two from Morocco, and one from the Canary Islands represent the total genetic diversity of the species and the rarest allelic variation. Ex situ conservation is recommended to complement the preservation of A. edulis, given that effective in situ population protection is not feasible in all cases. The consideration of complementary phylogeographic and ecological data is useful for management efforts to preserve the evolutionary potential of the species. PMID:26844014

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the annual cycle: Linking policy alternatives, landowner decisions, and biological population outcomes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Grant, Edward C.; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, D.C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David W.

2015-01-01

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

Exponential Boundary Observers for Pressurized Water Pipe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermine Som, Idellette Judith; Cocquempot, Vincent; Aitouche, Abdel

2015-11-01

This paper deals with state estimation on a pressurized water pipe modeled by nonlinear coupled distributed hyperbolic equations for non-conservative laws with three known boundary measures. Our objective is to estimate the fourth boundary variable, which will be useful for leakage detection. Two approaches are studied. Firstly, the distributed hyperbolic equations are discretized through a finite-difference scheme. By using the Lipschitz property of the nonlinear term and a Lyapunov function, the exponential stability of the estimation error is proven by solving Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). Secondly, the distributed hyperbolic system is preserved for state estimation. After state transformations, a Luenberger-like PDE boundary observer based on backstepping mathematical tools is proposed. An exponential Lyapunov function is used to prove the stability of the resulted estimation error. The performance of the two observers are shown on a water pipe prototype simulated example.

Using genomics to characterize evolutionary potential for conservation of wild populations

PubMed Central

Harrisson, Katherine A; Pavlova, Alexandra; Telonis-Scott, Marina; Sunnucks, Paul

2014-01-01

Genomics promises exciting advances towards the important conservation goal of maximizing evolutionary potential, notwithstanding associated challenges. Here, we explore some of the complexity of adaptation genetics and discuss the strengths and limitations of genomics as a tool for characterizing evolutionary potential in the context of conservation management. Many traits are polygenic and can be strongly influenced by minor differences in regulatory networks and by epigenetic variation not visible in DNA sequence. Much of this critical complexity is difficult to detect using methods commonly used to identify adaptive variation, and this needs appropriate consideration when planning genomic screens, and when basing management decisions on genomic data. When the genomic basis of adaptation and future threats are well understood, it may be appropriate to focus management on particular adaptive traits. For more typical conservations scenarios, we argue that screening genome-wide variation should be a sensible approach that may provide a generalized measure of evolutionary potential that accounts for the contributions of small-effect loci and cryptic variation and is robust to uncertainty about future change and required adaptive response(s). The best conservation outcomes should be achieved when genomic estimates of evolutionary potential are used within an adaptive management framework. PMID:25553064

Oil and Gas Development in Southwestern Wyoming - Energy Data and Services for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biewick, Laura

2009-01-01

The purpose of this report is to explore current oil and gas energy development in the area encompassing the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative. The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative is a long-term science-based effort to ensure southwestern Wyoming's wildlife and habitat remain viable in areas facing development pressure. Wyoming encompasses some of the highest quality wildlife habitats in the Intermountain West. At the same time, this region is an important source of natural gas. Using Geographic Information System technology, energy data pertinent to the conservation decision-making process have been assembled to show historical oil and gas exploration and production in southwestern Wyoming. In addition to historical data, estimates of undiscovered oil and gas are included from the 2002 U.S. Geological Survey National Assessment of Oil and Gas in the Southwestern Wyoming Province. This report is meant to facilitate the integration of existing data with new knowledge and technologies to analyze energy resources development and to assist in habitat conservation planning. The well and assessment data can be accessed and shared among many different clients including, but not limited to, an online web-service for scientists and resource managers engaged in the Initiative.

Cheap and Nasty? The Potential Perils of Using Management Costs to Identify Global Conservation Priorities

PubMed Central

McCreless, Erin; Visconti, Piero; Carwardine, Josie; Wilcox, Chris; Smith, Robert J.

2013-01-01

The financial cost of biodiversity conservation varies widely around the world and such costs should be considered when identifying countries to best focus conservation investments. Previous global prioritizations have been based on global models for protected area management costs, but this metric may be related to other factors that negatively influence the effectiveness and social impacts of conservation. Here we investigate such relationships and first show that countries with low predicted costs are less politically stable. Local support and capacity can mitigate the impacts of such instability, but we also found that these countries have less civil society involvement in conservation. Therefore, externally funded projects in these countries must rely on government agencies for implementation. This can be problematic, as our analyses show that governments in countries with low predicted costs score poorly on indices of corruption, bureaucratic quality and human rights. Taken together, our results demonstrate that using national-level estimates for protected area management costs to set global conservation priorities is simplistic, as projects in apparently low-cost countries are less likely to succeed and more likely to have negative impacts on people. We identify the need for an improved approach to develop global conservation cost metrics that better capture the true costs of avoiding or overcoming such problems. Critically, conservation scientists must engage with practitioners to better understand and implement context-specific solutions. This approach assumes that measures of conservation costs, like measures of conservation value, are organization specific, and would bring a much-needed focus on reducing the negative impacts of conservation to develop projects that benefit people and biodiversity. PMID:24260502

Compliance boundaries for multiple-frequency base station antennas in three directions.

PubMed

Thielens, Arno; Vermeeren, Günter; Kurup, Divya; Joseph, Wout; Martens, Luc

2013-09-01

In this article, compliance boundaries and allowed output powers are determined for the front, back, and side of multiple-frequency base station antennas, based on the root-mean-squared electric field, the whole-body averaged specific absorption rate (SAR), and the 10 g averaged SAR in both the limbs and the head and trunk. For this purpose, the basic restrictions and reference levels defined by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) for both the general public and occupational exposure are used. The antennas are designed for Global System for Mobile Communications around 900 MHz (GSM900), GSM1800, High Speed Packet Access (HSPA), and Long Term Evolution (LTE), and are operated with output powers at the individual frequencies up to 300 W. The compliance boundaries are estimated using finite-difference time-domain simulations with the Virtual Family Male and have been determined for three directions with respect to the antennas for 800, 900, 1800, and 2600 MHz. The reference levels are not always conservative when the radiating part of the antenna is small compared to the length of the body. Combined compliance distances, which ensure compliance with all reference levels and basic restrictions, have also been determined for each frequency. A method to determine a conservative estimation of compliance boundaries for multiple-frequency (cumulative) exposure is introduced. Using the errors on the estimated allowed powers, an uncertainty analysis is carried out for the compliance distances. Uncertainties on the compliance distances are found to be smaller than 122%. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

78 FR 49607 - Energy Conservation Program: Test Procedures for Residential Clothes Dryers

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-14

... reasonably designed to produce test results which measure energy efficiency, energy use or estimated annual... Energy Conservation Program: Test Procedures for Residential Clothes Dryers; Final Rule #0;#0;Federal... Conservation Program: Test Procedures for Residential Clothes Dryers AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and...

7 CFR 625.6 - Establishing priority for enrollment in HFRP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... CONSERVATION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE WATER RESOURCES HEALTHY FORESTS RESERVE PROGRAM § 625.6... NMFS, may consider the following factors to rank properties: (1) Estimated conservation benefit to... conservation benefit to habitat required by species not listed as endangered or threatened under Section 4 of...

Whale shark economics: a valuation of wildlife tourism in South Ari Atoll, Maldives.

PubMed

Cagua, Edgar Fernando; Collins, Neal; Hancock, James; Rees, Richard

2014-01-01

Whale sharks attract large numbers of tourists, divers and snorkelers each year to South Ari Atoll in the Republic of Maldives. Yet without information regarding the use and economic extent of the attraction, it is difficult to prioritize conservation or implement effective management plans. We used empirical recreational data and generalized mixed statistical models to conduct the first economic valuation (with direct spend as the primary proxy) of whale shark tourism in Maldives. We estimated that direct expenditures for whale shark focused tourism in the South Ari Marine Protected Area for 2012 and 2013 accounted for US$7.6 and $9.4 million respectively. These expenditures are based on an estimate of 72,000-78,000 tourists who are involved in whale shark excursions annually. That substantial amount of income to resort owners and operators, and tourism businesses in a relatively small area highlights the need to implement regulations and management that safeguard the sustainability of the industry through ensuring guest satisfaction and whale shark conservation.

Whale shark economics: a valuation of wildlife tourism in South Ari Atoll, Maldives

PubMed Central

Collins, Neal; Hancock, James; Rees, Richard

2014-01-01

Whale sharks attract large numbers of tourists, divers and snorkelers each year to South Ari Atoll in the Republic of Maldives. Yet without information regarding the use and economic extent of the attraction, it is difficult to prioritize conservation or implement effective management plans. We used empirical recreational data and generalized mixed statistical models to conduct the first economic valuation (with direct spend as the primary proxy) of whale shark tourism in Maldives. We estimated that direct expenditures for whale shark focused tourism in the South Ari Marine Protected Area for 2012 and 2013 accounted for US$7.6 and $9.4 million respectively. These expenditures are based on an estimate of 72,000–78,000 tourists who are involved in whale shark excursions annually. That substantial amount of income to resort owners and operators, and tourism businesses in a relatively small area highlights the need to implement regulations and management that safeguard the sustainability of the industry through ensuring guest satisfaction and whale shark conservation. PMID:25165629

Cost analysis in support of minimum energy standards for clothes washers and dryers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1979-02-02

The results of the cost analysis of energy conservation design options for laundry products are presented. The analysis was conducted using two approaches. The first, is directed toward the development of industrial engineering cost estimates of each energy conservation option. This approach results in the estimation of manufacturers costs. The second approach is directed toward determining the market price differential of energy conservation features. The results of this approach are shown. The market cost represents the cost to the consumer. It is the final cost, and therefore includes distribution costs as well as manufacturing costs.

Combining inferences from models of capture efficiency, detectability, and suitable habitat to classify landscapes for conservation of threatened bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.; Dunham, J.B.

2003-01-01

Effective conservation efforts for at-risk species require knowledge of the locations of existing populations. Species presence can be estimated directly by conducting field-sampling surveys or alternatively by developing predictive models. Direct surveys can be expensive and inefficient, particularly for rare and difficult-to-sample species, and models of species presence may produce biased predictions. We present a Bayesian approach that combines sampling and model-based inferences for estimating species presence. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of this approach were compared to those of sampling surveys and predictive models for estimating the presence of the threatened bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) via simulation with existing models and empirical sampling data. Simulations indicated that a sampling-only approach would be the most effective and would result in the lowest presence and absence misclassification error rates for three thresholds of detection probability. When sampling effort was considered, however, the combined approach resulted in the lowest error rates per unit of sampling effort. Hence, lower probability-of-detection thresholds can be specified with the combined approach, resulting in lower misclassification error rates and improved cost-effectiveness.

Sub-Saharan African migrants living with HIV acquired after migration, France, ANRS PARCOURS study, 2012 to 2013.

PubMed

Desgrées-du-Loû, Annabel; Pannetier, Julie; Ravalihasy, Andrainolo; Gosselin, Anne; Supervie, Virginie; Panjo, Henri; Bajos, Nathalie; Lert, France; Lydié, Nathalie; Dray-Spira, Rosemary

2015-01-01

We estimated the proportion of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa who acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) while living in France. Life-event and clinical information was collected in 2012 and 2013 from a random sample of HIV-infected outpatients born in sub-Saharan Africa and living in the Paris region. We assumed HIV infection in France if at least one of the following was fulfilled: (i) HIV diagnosis at least 11 years after arrival in France, (ii) at least one negative HIV test in France, (iii) sexual debut after arrival in France. Otherwise, time of HIV infection was based on statistical modelling of first CD4(+) T-cell count; infection in France was assumed if more than 50% (median scenario) or more than 95% (conservative scenario) of modelled infection times occurred after migration. We estimated that 49% of 898 HIV-infected adults born in sub-Saharan Africa (95% confidence interval (CI): 45-53) in the median and 35% (95% CI: 31-39) in the conservative scenario acquired HIV while living in France. This proportion was higher in men than women (44% (95% CI: 37-51) vs 30% (95% CI: 25-35); conservative scenario) and increased with length of stay in France. These high proportions highlight the need for improved HIV policies targeting migrants.

Simple rules can guide whether land- or ocean-based conservation will best benefit marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Saunders, Megan I; Bode, Michael; Atkinson, Scott; Klein, Carissa J; Metaxas, Anna; Beher, Jutta; Beger, Maria; Mills, Morena; Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Tulloch, Vivitskaia; Possingham, Hugh P

2017-09-01

Coastal marine ecosystems can be managed by actions undertaken both on the land and in the ocean. Quantifying and comparing the costs and benefits of actions in both realms is therefore necessary for efficient management. Here, we quantify the link between terrestrial sediment runoff and a downstream coastal marine ecosystem and contrast the cost-effectiveness of marine- and land-based conservation actions. We use a dynamic land- and sea-scape model to determine whether limited funds should be directed to 1 of 4 alternative conservation actions-protection on land, protection in the ocean, restoration on land, or restoration in the ocean-to maximise the extent of light-dependent marine benthic habitats across decadal timescales. We apply the model to a case study for a seagrass meadow in Australia. We find that marine restoration is the most cost-effective action over decadal timescales in this system, based on a conservative estimate of the rate at which seagrass can expand into a new habitat. The optimal decision will vary in different social-ecological contexts, but some basic information can guide optimal investments to counteract land- and ocean-based stressors: (1) marine restoration should be prioritised if the rates of marine ecosystem decline and expansion are similar and low; (2) marine protection should take precedence if the rate of marine ecosystem decline is high or if the adjacent catchment is relatively intact and has a low rate of vegetation decline; (3) land-based actions are optimal when the ratio of marine ecosystem expansion to decline is greater than 1:1.4, with terrestrial restoration typically the most cost-effective action; and (4) land protection should be prioritised if the catchment is relatively intact but the rate of vegetation decline is high. These rules of thumb illustrate how cost-effective conservation outcomes for connected land-ocean systems can proceed without complex modelling.

Simple rules can guide whether land- or ocean-based conservation will best benefit marine ecosystems

PubMed Central

Bode, Michael; Atkinson, Scott; Klein, Carissa J.; Metaxas, Anna; Beher, Jutta; Beger, Maria; Mills, Morena; Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Tulloch, Vivitskaia; Possingham, Hugh P.

2017-01-01

Coastal marine ecosystems can be managed by actions undertaken both on the land and in the ocean. Quantifying and comparing the costs and benefits of actions in both realms is therefore necessary for efficient management. Here, we quantify the link between terrestrial sediment runoff and a downstream coastal marine ecosystem and contrast the cost-effectiveness of marine- and land-based conservation actions. We use a dynamic land- and sea-scape model to determine whether limited funds should be directed to 1 of 4 alternative conservation actions—protection on land, protection in the ocean, restoration on land, or restoration in the ocean—to maximise the extent of light-dependent marine benthic habitats across decadal timescales. We apply the model to a case study for a seagrass meadow in Australia. We find that marine restoration is the most cost-effective action over decadal timescales in this system, based on a conservative estimate of the rate at which seagrass can expand into a new habitat. The optimal decision will vary in different social–ecological contexts, but some basic information can guide optimal investments to counteract land- and ocean-based stressors: (1) marine restoration should be prioritised if the rates of marine ecosystem decline and expansion are similar and low; (2) marine protection should take precedence if the rate of marine ecosystem decline is high or if the adjacent catchment is relatively intact and has a low rate of vegetation decline; (3) land-based actions are optimal when the ratio of marine ecosystem expansion to decline is greater than 1:1.4, with terrestrial restoration typically the most cost-effective action; and (4) land protection should be prioritised if the catchment is relatively intact but the rate of vegetation decline is high. These rules of thumb illustrate how cost-effective conservation outcomes for connected land–ocean systems can proceed without complex modelling. PMID:28877168

Assumption-versus data-based approaches to summarizing species' ranges.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Gordillo, Alejandro

2018-06-01

For conservation decision making, species' geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse-resolution extent-of-occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent-of-occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine-resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent-of-occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well-documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species' true areas of distribution. However, no model-evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse-grained, global-extent studies, their continued use in on-the-ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data-driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data-driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well-founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species' distributional patterns for conservation applications. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Conservation priorities of Iberoamerican pig breeds and their ancestors based on microsatellite information.

PubMed

Cortés, O; Martinez, A M; Cañon, J; Sevane, N; Gama, L T; Ginja, C; Landi, V; Zaragoza, P; Carolino, N; Vicente, A; Sponenberg, P; Delgado, J V

2016-07-01

Criollo pig breeds are descendants from pigs brought to the American continent starting with Columbus second trip in 1493. Pigs currently play a key role in social economy and community cultural identity in Latin America. The aim of this study was to establish conservation priorities among a comprehensive group of Criollo pig breeds based on a set of 24 microsatellite markers and using different criteria. Spain and Portugal pig breeds, wild boar populations of different European geographic origins and commercial pig breeds were included in the analysis as potential genetic influences in the development of Criollo pig breeds. Different methods, differing in the weight given to within- and between-breed genetic variability, were used in order to estimate the contribution of each breed to global genetic diversity. As expected, the partial contribution to total heterozygosity gave high priority to Criollo pig breeds, whereas Weitzman procedures prioritized Iberian Peninsula breeds. With the combined within- and between-breed approaches, different conservation priorities were achieved. The Core Set methodologies highly prioritized Criollo pig breeds (Cr. Boliviano, Cr. Pacifico, Cr. Cubano and Cr. Guadalupe). However, weighing the between- and within-breed components with FST and 1-FST, respectively, resulted in higher contributions of Iberian breeds. In spite of the different conservation priorities according to the methodology used, other factors in addition to genetic information also need to be considered in conservation programmes, such as the economic, cultural or historical value of the breeds involved.

Conservation priorities of Iberoamerican pig breeds and their ancestors based on microsatellite information

PubMed Central

Cortés, O; Martinez, A M; Cañon, J; Sevane, N; Gama, L T; Ginja, C; Landi, V; Zaragoza, P; Carolino, N; Vicente, A; Sponenberg, P; Delgado, J V

2016-01-01

Criollo pig breeds are descendants from pigs brought to the American continent starting with Columbus second trip in 1493. Pigs currently play a key role in social economy and community cultural identity in Latin America. The aim of this study was to establish conservation priorities among a comprehensive group of Criollo pig breeds based on a set of 24 microsatellite markers and using different criteria. Spain and Portugal pig breeds, wild boar populations of different European geographic origins and commercial pig breeds were included in the analysis as potential genetic influences in the development of Criollo pig breeds. Different methods, differing in the weight given to within- and between-breed genetic variability, were used in order to estimate the contribution of each breed to global genetic diversity. As expected, the partial contribution to total heterozygosity gave high priority to Criollo pig breeds, whereas Weitzman procedures prioritized Iberian Peninsula breeds. With the combined within- and between-breed approaches, different conservation priorities were achieved. The Core Set methodologies highly prioritized Criollo pig breeds (Cr. Boliviano, Cr. Pacifico, Cr. Cubano and Cr. Guadalupe). However, weighing the between- and within-breed components with FST and 1-FST, respectively, resulted in higher contributions of Iberian breeds. In spite of the different conservation priorities according to the methodology used, other factors in addition to genetic information also need to be considered in conservation programmes, such as the economic, cultural or historical value of the breeds involved. PMID:27025169

Conservation Below the Species Level: Suitable Evolutionarily Significant Units among Mountain Vipers (the Montivipera raddei complex) in Iran.

PubMed

Behrooz, Roozbeh; Kaboli, Mohammad; Arnal, Véronique; Nazarizadeh, Masoud; Asadi, Atefeh; Salmanian, Amin; Ahmadi, Mohsen; Montgelard, Claudine

2018-05-11

Northern and western mountains of Iran are among the most important biodiversity and endemism hot spots for reptiles in the Middle East. Among herpetofauna, the montivipers represent an emblematic and fragmented endemic group for which estimating their level of genetic differentiation and defining conservation priorities is urgently needed. Here, we present the most comprehensive phylogenetic study on the Montivipera raddei species group comprising all 5 known taxa, among which 3 are endemic to Iran. Based on 2 mitochondrial genes, phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses revealed 3 major lineages each presenting very contrasting distribution areas. The Iranian montivipers are highly structured in clades showing low genetic diversity and corresponding to high altitude summits. Molecular dating revealed the role of Quaternary paleo-climatic oscillations and altitudinal movements of montivipers in shaping genetic diversity and differentiation of these sky-island taxa. In addition, the best scenario of historical biogeography allowed identifying 3 possible refugial areas in Iran most likely arising by vicariance. Based on our mitochondrial results and pending additional data, we recognize 3 candidate species among the M. raddei complex: M. raddei, Montivipera latifii, and Montivipera kuhrangica that are coherent with their geographical distribution. We propose that the most appropriate evolutionary significant units for conservation of the montivipers are represented by 13 units among which 6 are recognized as high priority. Finally, we suggest some recommendations to the IUCN as well as to the Iranian conservation policies with respect to conservation prioritization.

Fourth order exponential time differencing method with local discontinuous Galerkin approximation for coupled nonlinear Schrodinger equations

DOE PAGES

Liang, Xiao; Khaliq, Abdul Q. M.; Xing, Yulong

2015-01-23

In this paper, we study a local discontinuous Galerkin method combined with fourth order exponential time differencing Runge-Kutta time discretization and a fourth order conservative method for solving the nonlinear Schrödinger equations. Based on different choices of numerical fluxes, we propose both energy-conserving and energy-dissipative local discontinuous Galerkin methods, and have proven the error estimates for the semi-discrete methods applied to linear Schrödinger equation. The numerical methods are proven to be highly efficient and stable for long-range soliton computations. Finally, extensive numerical examples are provided to illustrate the accuracy, efficiency and reliability of the proposed methods.

Validation of Lower Tier Exposure Tools Used for REACH: Comparison of Tools Estimates With Available Exposure Measurements.

PubMed

van Tongeren, Martie; Lamb, Judith; Cherrie, John W; MacCalman, Laura; Basinas, Ioannis; Hesse, Susanne

2017-10-01

Tier 1 exposure tools recommended for use under REACH are designed to easily identify situations that may pose a risk to health through conservative exposure predictions. However, no comprehensive evaluation of the performance of the lower tier tools has previously been carried out. The ETEAM project aimed to evaluate several lower tier exposure tools (ECETOC TRA, MEASE, and EMKG-EXPO-TOOL) as well as one higher tier tool (STOFFENMANAGER®). This paper describes the results of the external validation of tool estimates using measurement data. Measurement data were collected from a range of providers, both in Europe and United States, together with contextual information. Individual measurement and aggregated measurement data were obtained. The contextual information was coded into the tools to obtain exposure estimates. Results were expressed as percentage of measurements exceeding the tool estimates and presented by exposure category (non-volatile liquid, volatile liquid, metal abrasion, metal processing, and powder handling). We also explored tool performance for different process activities as well as different scenario conditions and exposure levels. In total, results from nearly 4000 measurements were obtained, with the majority for the use of volatile liquids and powder handling. The comparisons of measurement results with tool estimates suggest that the tools are generally conservative. However, the tools were more conservative when estimating exposure from powder handling compared to volatile liquids and other exposure categories. In addition, results suggested that tool performance varies between process activities and scenario conditions. For example, tools were less conservative when estimating exposure during activities involving tabletting, compression, extrusion, pelletisation, granulation (common process activity PROC14) and transfer of substance or mixture (charging and discharging) at non-dedicated facilities (PROC8a; powder handling only). With the exception of STOFFENMANAGER® (for estimating exposure during powder handling), the tools were less conservative for scenarios with lower estimated exposure levels. This is the most comprehensive evaluation of the performance of REACH exposure tools carried out to date. The results show that, although generally conservative, the tools may not always achieve the performance specified in the REACH guidance, i.e. using the 75th or 90th percentile of the exposure distribution for the risk characterisation. Ongoing development, adjustment, and recalibration of the tools with new measurement data are essential to ensure adequate characterisation and control of worker exposure to hazardous substances. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Cost effectiveness of a general practice chronic disease management plan for coronary heart disease in Australia.

PubMed

Chew, Derek P; Carter, Robert; Rankin, Bree; Boyden, Andrew; Egan, Helen

2010-05-01

The cost effectiveness of a general practice-based program for managing coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in Australia remains uncertain. We have explored this through an economic model. A secondary prevention program based on initial clinical assessment and 3 monthly review, optimising of pharmacotherapies and lifestyle modification, supported by a disease registry and financial incentives for quality of care and outcomes achieved was assessed in terms of incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER), in Australian dollars per disability adjusted life year (DALY) prevented. Based on 2006 estimates, 263 487 DALYs were attributable to CHD in Australia. The proposed program would add $115 650 000 to the annual national heath expenditure. Using an estimated 15% reduction in death and disability and a 40% estimated program uptake, the program's ICER is $8081 per DALY prevented. With more conservative estimates of effectiveness and uptake, estimates of up to $38 316 per DALY are observed in sensitivity analysis. Although innovation in CHD management promises improved future patient outcomes, many therapies and strategies proven to reduce morbidity and mortality are available today. A general practice-based program for the optimal application of current therapies is likely to be cost-effective and provide substantial and sustainable benefits to the Australian community.

Relationship between Race and the Effect of Fluids on Long-term Mortality after Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. Secondary Analysis of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial.

PubMed

Jolley, Sarah E; Hough, Catherine L; Clermont, Gilles; Hayden, Douglas; Hou, Suqin; Schoenfeld, David; Smith, Nicholas L; Thompson, Boyd Taylor; Bernard, Gordon R; Angus, Derek C

2017-09-01

Short-term follow-up in the Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT) suggested differential mortality by race with conservative fluid management, but no significant interaction. In a post hoc analysis of FACTT including 1-year follow-up, we sought to estimate long-term mortality by race and test for an interaction between fluids and race. We performed a post hoc analysis of FACTT and the Economic Analysis of Pulmonary Artery Catheters (EAPAC) study (which included 655 of the 1,000 FACTT patients with near-complete 1-year follow up). We fit a multistate Markov model to estimate 1-year mortality for all non-Hispanic black and white randomized FACTT subjects. The model estimated the distribution of time from randomization to hospital discharge or hospital death (available on all patients) and estimated the distribution of time from hospital discharge to death using data on patients after hospital discharge for patients in EAPAC. The 1-year mortality was found by combining these estimates. Non-Hispanic black (n = 217, 25%) or white identified subjects (n = 641, 75%) were included. There was a significant interaction between race and fluid treatment (P = 0.012). One-year mortality was lower for black subjects assigned to conservative fluids (38 vs. 54%; mean mortality difference, 16%; 95% confidence interval, 2-30%; P = 0.027 between conservative and liberal). Conversely, 1-year mortality for white subjects was 35% versus 30% for conservative versus liberal arms (mean mortality difference, -4.8%; 95% confidence interval, -13% to 3%; P = 0.23). In our cohort, conservative fluid management may have improved 1-year mortality for non-Hispanic black patients with ARDS. However, we found no long-term benefit of conservative fluid management in white subjects.

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data in avian conservation assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, Kenneth V.; Blancher, Peter J.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Panjabi, Arvind O.

2017-01-01

Conservation resources are limited, and prioritizing species based on their relative vulnerability and risk of extinction is a fundamental component of conservation planning. In North America, the conservation consortium Partners in Flight (PIF) has developed and implemented a data-driven species assessment process, at global and regional scales, based on quantitative vulnerability criteria. This species assessment process has formed the biological basis for PIF's continental and regional planning and has informed the ranking and legal listing of bird species for conservation protection by state, provincial, and national agencies in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Because of its long time series, extensive geographic and species coverage, standardized survey methods, and prompt availability of results, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been an invaluable source of data, allowing PIF to assign objective vulnerability scores calibrated across more than 460 landbird species. BBS data have been most valuable for assessing long-term population trends (PT score). PIF has also developed methods for estimating population size by extrapolating from BBS abundance indices, allowing the assignment of categorical population size (PS) scores for landbird species. At regional scales, BBS relative abundance indices have allowed PIF to assess the area importance (i.e. stewardship responsibility) of each Bird Conservation Region (BCR) for each species, using measures of both relative density and percent of total population in each BCR. Besides direct applicability to assessment scores, PIF has recently used BBS trend data to create new metrics of conservation urgency (e.g., ‘half-life'), as well as for setting population objectives for tracking progress toward meeting conservation goals. Future directions include integrating BBS data with other sources (e.g., eBird) to assess additional species and nonbreeding season measures, working closely with BBS coordinators to expand surveys into Mexico, and providing assessment scores at implementation-relevant scales, such as for migratory bird joint ventures.

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

2016-01-01

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

Projecting land-use change and its consequences for biodiversity in northern Thailand.

PubMed

Trisurat, Yongyut; Alkemade, Rob; Verburg, Peter H

2010-03-01

Rapid deforestation has occurred in northern Thailand over the last few decades and it is expected to continue. The government has implemented conservation policies aimed at maintaining forest cover of 50% or more and promoting agribusiness, forestry, and tourism development in the region. The goal of this paper was to analyze the likely effects of various directions of development on the region. Specific objectives were (1) to forecast land-use change and land-use patterns across the region based on three scenarios, (2) to analyze the consequences for biodiversity, and (3) to identify areas most susceptible to future deforestation and high biodiversity loss. The study combined a dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a model for biodiversity assessment (GLOBIO3). The Dyna-CLUE model was used to determine the spatial patterns of land-use change for the three scenarios. The methodology developed for the Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework (GLOBIO 3) was used to estimate biodiversity intactness expressed as the remaining relative mean species abundance (MSA) of the original species relative to their abundance in the primary vegetation. The results revealed that forest cover in 2050 would mainly persist in the west and upper north of the region, which is rugged and not easily accessible. In contrast, the highest deforestation was expected to occur in the lower north. MSA values decreased from 0.52 in 2002 to 0.45, 0.46, and 0.48, respectively, for the three scenarios in 2050. In addition, the estimated area with a high threat to biodiversity (an MSA decrease >0.5) derived from the simulated land-use maps in 2050 was approximately 2.8% of the region for the trend scenario. In contrast, the high-threat areas covered 1.6 and 0.3% of the region for the integrated-management and conservation-oriented scenarios, respectively. Based on the model outcomes, conservation measures were recommended to minimize the impacts of deforestation on biodiversity. The model results indicated that only establishing a fixed percentage of forest was not efficient in conserving biodiversity. Measures aimed at the conservation of locations with high biodiversity values, limited fragmentation, and careful consideration of road expansion in pristine forest areas may be more efficient to achieve biodiversity conservation.

A-Posteriori Error Estimation for Hyperbolic Conservation Laws with Constraint

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy

2004-01-01

This lecture considers a-posteriori error estimates for the numerical solution of conservation laws with time invariant constraints such as those arising in magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and gravitational physics. Using standard duality arguments, a-posteriori error estimates for the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method are then presented for MHD with solenoidal constraint. From these estimates, a procedure for adaptive discretization is outlined. A taxonomy of Green's functions for the linearized MHD operator is given which characterizes the domain of dependence for pointwise errors. The extension to other constrained systems such as the Einstein equations of gravitational physics are then considered. Finally, future directions and open problems are discussed.

Calibrating abundance indices with population size estimators of red back salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) in a New England forest

PubMed Central

Ellison, Aaron M.; Jackson, Scott

2015-01-01

Herpetologists and conservation biologists frequently use convenient and cost-effective, but less accurate, abundance indices (e.g., number of individuals collected under artificial cover boards or during natural objects surveys) in lieu of more accurate, but costly and destructive, population size estimators to detect and monitor size, state, and trends of amphibian populations. Although there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach, reliable use of abundance indices requires that they be calibrated with accurate population estimators. Such calibrations, however, are rare. The red back salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is an ecologically useful indicator species of forest dynamics, and accurate calibration of indices of salamander abundance could increase the reliability of abundance indices used in monitoring programs. We calibrated abundance indices derived from surveys of P. cinereus under artificial cover boards or natural objects with a more accurate estimator of their population size in a New England forest. Average densities/m2 and capture probabilities of P. cinereus under natural objects or cover boards in independent, replicate sites at the Harvard Forest (Petersham, Massachusetts, USA) were similar in stands dominated by Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) and deciduous hardwood species (predominantly Quercus rubra [red oak] and Acer rubrum [red maple]). The abundance index based on salamanders surveyed under natural objects was significantly associated with density estimates of P. cinereus derived from depletion (removal) surveys, but underestimated true density by 50%. In contrast, the abundance index based on cover-board surveys overestimated true density by a factor of 8 and the association between the cover-board index and the density estimates was not statistically significant. We conclude that when calibrated and used appropriately, some abundance indices may provide cost-effective and reliable measures of P. cinereus abundance that could be used in conservation assessments and long-term monitoring at Harvard Forest and other northeastern USA forests. PMID:26020008

Reptiles of Chubut province, Argentina: richness, diversity, conservation status and geographic distribution maps.

PubMed

Minoli, Ignacio; Morando, Mariana; Avila, Luciano Javier

2015-01-01

An accurate estimation of species and population geographic ranges is essential for species-focused studies and conservation and management plans. Knowledge of the geographic distributions of reptiles from Patagonian Argentina is in general limited and dispersed over manuscripts from a wide variety of topics. We completed an extensive review of reptile species of central Patagonia (Argentina) based on information from a wide variety of sources. We compiled and checked geographic distribution records from published literature and museum records, including extensive new data from the LJAMM-CNP (CENPAT-CONICET) herpetological collection. Our results show that there are 52 taxa recorded for this region and the highest species richness was seen in the families Liolaemidae and Dipsadidae with 31 and 10 species, respectively. The Patagónica was the phytogeographic province most diverse in species and Phymaturus was the genus of conservation concern most strongly associated with it. We present a detailed species list with geographical information, richness species, diversity analyses with comparisons across phytogeographical provinces, conservation status, taxonomic comments and distribution maps for all of these taxa.

Reptiles of Chubut province, Argentina: richness, diversity, conservation status and geographic distribution maps

PubMed Central

Minoli, Ignacio; Morando, Mariana; Avila, Luciano Javier

2015-01-01

Abstract An accurate estimation of species and population geographic ranges is essential for species-focused studies and conservation and management plans. Knowledge of the geographic distributions of reptiles from Patagonian Argentina is in general limited and dispersed over manuscripts from a wide variety of topics. We completed an extensive review of reptile species of central Patagonia (Argentina) based on information from a wide variety of sources. We compiled and checked geographic distribution records from published literature and museum records, including extensive new data from the LJAMM-CNP (CENPAT-CONICET) herpetological collection. Our results show that there are 52 taxa recorded for this region and the highest species richness was seen in the families Liolaemidae and Dipsadidae with 31 and 10 species, respectively. The Patagónica was the phytogeographic province most diverse in species and Phymaturus was the genus of conservation concern most strongly associated with it. We present a detailed species list with geographical information, richness species, diversity analyses with comparisons across phytogeographical provinces, conservation status, taxonomic comments and distribution maps for all of these taxa. PMID:25931966

Infralittoral mapping around an oceanic archipelago using MERIS FR satellite imagery and deep kelp observations: A new tool for assessing MPA coverage targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amorim, Patrícia; Atchoi, Elizabeth; Berecibar, Estibaliz; Tempera, Fernando

2015-06-01

This work presents the first climatologic maps of diffuse attenuation of down-welling solar radiation (KdPAR and Kd490 coefficients) for the Azores derived from full resolution (FR) MERIS satellite imagery. Associating this information with a new mesoscale bathymetry compilation permits estimating the percentage of surface light reaching the seabed. A video annotation dataset derived from a deep kelp survey conducted on the Formigas Bank is subsequently used to estimate the light levels experienced by these bionomically-crucial frondose algae. Empirical light-based thresholds for the lower infralittoral boundary in the Azores are derived from the deepest kelp occurrences. This information is eventually used to map the geographical extent of this major marine biological zone in the archipelago, yielding an area estimate of 894.7 km2. The average depth of the infralittoral limit in the Azores is established at 69 m. It is determined that the present Azores marine protected area (MPA) network already covers 28.9% of the region's infralittoral grounds. However, island-specific values highlight that MPA percentage coverage varies between islands with values ranging from a marginal coverage of 7.3% (on Terceira Island) to 100% coverage around the island of Corvo and the Formigas Bank. These results suggest that conservation managers may make use of the current spatially-based protection framework of the archipelago to, on the whole and for this specific major habitat, surpass the goals suggested by international conventions and conservation fora for MPA coverage. However, an analysis of the statutory MPA regulations further reveals that measures in place are insufficient to provide a no-take and no-disturbance protection of infralittoral biotopes. In order to achieve the recommended strict protection of the currently protected infralittoral zones, conservation measures ought to be enhanced.

First tier modeling of consumer dermal exposure to substances in consumer articles under REACH: a quantitative evaluation of the ECETOC TRA for consumers tool.

PubMed

Delmaar, J E; Bokkers, B G H; ter Burg, W; van Engelen, J G M

2013-02-01

The demonstration of safe use of chemicals in consumer products, as required under REACH, is proposed to follow a tiered process. In the first tier, simple conservative methods and assumptions should be made to quickly verify whether risks for a particular use are expected. The ECETOC TRA Consumer Exposure Tool was developed to assist in first tier risk assessments for substances in consumer products. The ECETOC TRA is not a prioritization tool, but is meant as a first screening. Therefore, the exposure assessment needs to cover all products/articles in a specific category. For the assessment of the dermal exposure for substances in articles, ECETOC TRA uses the concept of a 'contact layer', a hypothetical layer that limits the exposure to a substance contained in the product. For each product/article category, ECETOC TRA proposes default values for the thickness of this contact layer. As relevant experimental exposure data is currently lacking, default values are based on expert judgment alone. In this paper it is verified whether this concept meets the requirement of being a conservative exposure evaluation method. This is done by confronting the ECETOC TRA expert judgment based predictions with a mechanistic emission model, based on the well established theory of diffusion of substances in materials. Diffusion models have been applied and tested in many applications of emission modeling. Experimentally determined input data for a number of material and substance combinations are available. The estimated emissions provide information on the range of emissions that could occur in reality. First tier tools such as ECETOC TRA tool are required to cover all products/articles in a category and to provide estimates that are at least as high as is expected on the basis of current scientific knowledge. Since this was not the case, it is concluded that the ECETOC TRA does not provide a proper conservative estimation method for the dermal exposure to articles. An alternative method was proposed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mechanistic species distribution modelling as a link between physiology and conservation.

PubMed

Evans, Tyler G; Diamond, Sarah E; Kelly, Morgan W

2015-01-01

Climate change conservation planning relies heavily on correlative species distribution models that estimate future areas of occupancy based on environmental conditions encountered in present-day ranges. The approach benefits from rapid assessment of vulnerability over a large number of organisms, but can have poor predictive power when transposed to novel environments and reveals little in the way of causal mechanisms that define changes in species distribution or abundance. Having conservation planning rely largely on this single approach also increases the risk of policy failure. Mechanistic models that are parameterized with physiological information are expected to be more robust when extrapolating distributions to future environmental conditions and can identify physiological processes that set range boundaries. Implementation of mechanistic species distribution models requires knowledge of how environmental change influences physiological performance, and because this information is currently restricted to a comparatively small number of well-studied organisms, use of mechanistic modelling in the context of climate change conservation is limited. In this review, we propose that the need to develop mechanistic models that incorporate physiological data presents an opportunity for physiologists to contribute more directly to climate change conservation and advance the field of conservation physiology. We begin by describing the prevalence of species distribution modelling in climate change conservation, highlighting the benefits and drawbacks of both mechanistic and correlative approaches. Next, we emphasize the need to expand mechanistic models and discuss potential metrics of physiological performance suitable for integration into mechanistic models. We conclude by summarizing other factors, such as the need to consider demography, limiting broader application of mechanistic models in climate change conservation. Ideally, modellers, physiologists and conservation practitioners would work collaboratively to build models, interpret results and consider conservation management options, and articulating this need here may help to stimulate collaboration.

Estimating population density and connectivity of American mink using spatial capture-recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuller, Angela K.; Sutherland, Christopher S.; Royle, Andy; Hare, Matthew P.

2016-01-01

Estimating the abundance or density of populations is fundamental to the conservation and management of species, and as landscapes become more fragmented, maintaining landscape connectivity has become one of the most important challenges for biodiversity conservation. Yet these two issues have never been formally integrated together in a model that simultaneously models abundance while accounting for connectivity of a landscape. We demonstrate an application of using capture–recapture to develop a model of animal density using a least-cost path model for individual encounter probability that accounts for non-Euclidean connectivity in a highly structured network. We utilized scat detection dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) as a means of collecting non-invasive genetic samples of American mink (Neovison vison) individuals and used spatial capture–recapture models (SCR) to gain inferences about mink population density and connectivity. Density of mink was not constant across the landscape, but rather increased with increasing distance from city, town, or village centers, and mink activity was associated with water. The SCR model allowed us to estimate the density and spatial distribution of individuals across a 388 km2 area. The model was used to investigate patterns of space usage and to evaluate covariate effects on encounter probabilities, including differences between sexes. This study provides an application of capture–recapture models based on ecological distance, allowing us to directly estimate landscape connectivity. This approach should be widely applicable to provide simultaneous direct estimates of density, space usage, and landscape connectivity for many species.

Dealing with uncertainty in landscape genetic resistance models: a case of three co-occurring marsupials.

PubMed

Dudaniec, Rachael Y; Worthington Wilmer, Jessica; Hanson, Jeffrey O; Warren, Matthew; Bell, Sarah; Rhodes, Jonathan R

2016-01-01

Landscape genetics lacks explicit methods for dealing with the uncertainty in landscape resistance estimation, which is particularly problematic when sample sizes of individuals are small. Unless uncertainty can be quantified, valuable but small data sets may be rendered unusable for conservation purposes. We offer a method to quantify uncertainty in landscape resistance estimates using multimodel inference as an improvement over single model-based inference. We illustrate the approach empirically using co-occurring, woodland-preferring Australian marsupials within a common study area: two arboreal gliders (Petaurus breviceps, and Petaurus norfolcensis) and one ground-dwelling antechinus (Antechinus flavipes). First, we use maximum-likelihood and a bootstrap procedure to identify the best-supported isolation-by-resistance model out of 56 models defined by linear and non-linear resistance functions. We then quantify uncertainty in resistance estimates by examining parameter selection probabilities from the bootstrapped data. The selection probabilities provide estimates of uncertainty in the parameters that drive the relationships between landscape features and resistance. We then validate our method for quantifying uncertainty using simulated genetic and landscape data showing that for most parameter combinations it provides sensible estimates of uncertainty. We conclude that small data sets can be informative in landscape genetic analyses provided uncertainty can be explicitly quantified. Being explicit about uncertainty in landscape genetic models will make results more interpretable and useful for conservation decision-making, where dealing with uncertainty is critical. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating population density and connectivity of American mink using spatial capture-recapture.

PubMed

Fuller, Angela K; Sutherland, Chris S; Royle, J Andrew; Hare, Matthew P

2016-06-01

Estimating the abundance or density of populations is fundamental to the conservation and management of species, and as landscapes become more fragmented, maintaining landscape connectivity has become one of the most important challenges for biodiversity conservation. Yet these two issues have never been formally integrated together in a model that simultaneously models abundance while accounting for connectivity of a landscape. We demonstrate an application of using capture-recapture to develop a model of animal density using a least-cost path model for individual encounter probability that accounts for non-Euclidean connectivity in a highly structured network. We utilized scat detection dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) as a means of collecting non-invasive genetic samples of American mink (Neovison vison) individuals and used spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) to gain inferences about mink population density and connectivity. Density of mink was not constant across the landscape, but rather increased with increasing distance from city, town, or village centers, and mink activity was associated with water. The SCR model allowed us to estimate the density and spatial distribution of individuals across a 388 km² area. The model was used to investigate patterns of space usage and to evaluate covariate effects on encounter probabilities, including differences between sexes. This study provides an application of capture-recapture models based on ecological distance, allowing us to directly estimate landscape connectivity. This approach should be widely applicable to provide simultaneous direct estimates of density, space usage, and landscape connectivity for many species.

From conservative to reactive transport under diffusion-controlled conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babey, Tristan; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; Ginn, Timothy R.

2016-05-01

We assess the possibility to use conservative transport information, such as that contained in transit time distributions, breakthrough curves and tracer tests, to predict nonlinear fluid-rock interactions in fracture/matrix or mobile/immobile conditions. Reference simulated data are given by conservative and reactive transport simulations in several diffusive porosity structures differing by their topological organization. Reactions includes nonlinear kinetically controlled dissolution and desorption. Effective Multi-Rate Mass Transfer models (MRMT) are calibrated solely on conservative transport information without pore topology information and provide concentration distributions on which effective reaction rates are estimated. Reference simulated reaction rates and effective reaction rates evaluated by MRMT are compared, as well as characteristic desorption and dissolution times. Although not exactly equal, these indicators remain very close whatever the porous structure, differing at most by 0.6% and 10% for desorption and dissolution. At early times, this close agreement arises from the fine characterization of the diffusive porosity close to the mobile zone that controls fast mobile-diffusive exchanges. At intermediate to late times, concentration gradients are strongly reduced by diffusion, and reactivity can be captured by a very limited number of rates. We conclude that effective models calibrated solely on conservative transport information like MRMT can accurately estimate monocomponent kinetically controlled nonlinear fluid-rock interactions. Their relevance might extend to more advanced biogeochemical reactions because of the good characterization of conservative concentration distributions, even by parsimonious models (e.g., MRMT with 3-5 rates). We propose a methodology to estimate reactive transport from conservative transport in mobile-immobile conditions.

An assessment of the tracer-based approach to quantifying groundwater contributions to streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. P.; Sudicky, E. A.; Brookfield, A. E.; Park, Y.-J.

2006-02-01

The use of conservative geochemical and isotopic tracers along with mass balance equations to determine the pre-event groundwater contributions to streamflow during a rainfall event is widely used for hydrograph separation; however, aspects related to the influence of surface and subsurface mixing processes on the estimates of the pre-event contribution remain poorly understood. Moreover, the lack of a precise definition of "pre-event" versus "event" contributions on the one hand and "old" versus "new" water components on the other hand has seemingly led to confusion within the hydrologic community about the role of Darcian-based groundwater flow during a storm event. In this work, a fully integrated surface and subsurface flow and solute transport model is used to analyze flow system dynamics during a storm event, concomitantly with advective-dispersive tracer transport, and to investigate the role of hydrodynamic mixing processes on the estimates of the pre-event component. A number of numerical experiments are presented, including an analysis of a controlled rainfall-runoff experiment, that compare the computed Darcian-based groundwater fluxes contributing to streamflow during a rainfall event with estimates of these contributions based on a tracer-based separation. It is shown that hydrodynamic mixing processes can dramatically influence estimates of the pre-event water contribution estimated by a tracer-based separation. Specifically, it is demonstrated that the actual amount of bulk flowing groundwater contributing to streamflow may be much smaller than the quantity indirectly estimated from a separation based on tracer mass balances, even if the mixing processes are weak.

Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Kery, M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, M.

2010-01-01

A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species-and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Building the Foundation for International Conservation Planning for Breeding Ducks across the U.S. and Canadian Border

PubMed Central

Doherty, Kevin E.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Walker, Johann; Devries, James H.; Howerter, David W.

2015-01-01

We used publically available data on duck breeding distribution and recently compiled geospatial data on upland habitat and environmental conditions to develop a spatially explicit model of breeding duck populations across the entire Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Our spatial population models were able to identify key areas for duck conservation across the PPR and predict between 62.1 – 79.1% (68.4% avg.) of the variation in duck counts by year from 2002 – 2010. The median difference in observed vs. predicted duck counts at a transect segment level was 4.6 ducks. Our models are the first seamless spatially explicit models of waterfowl abundance across the entire PPR and represent an initial step toward joint conservation planning between Prairie Pothole and Prairie Habitat Joint Ventures. Our work demonstrates that when spatial and temporal variation for highly mobile birds is incorporated into conservation planning it will likely increase the habitat area required to support defined population goals. A major goal of the current North American Waterfowl Management Plan and subsequent action plan is the linking of harvest and habitat management. We contend incorporation of spatial aspects will increase the likelihood of coherent joint harvest and habitat management decisions. Our results show at a minimum, it is possible to produce spatially explicit waterfowl abundance models that when summed across survey strata will produce similar strata level population estimates as the design-based Waterfowl Breeding Pair and Habitat Survey (r2 = 0.977). This is important because these design-based population estimates are currently used to set duck harvest regulations and to set duck population and habitat goals for the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We hope this effort generates discussion on the important linkages between spatial and temporal variation in population size, and distribution relative to habitat quantity and quality when linking habitat and population goals across this important region. PMID:25714747

Recreation economics to inform migratory species conservation: Case study of the northern pintail

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattsson, Brady J.; Dubovsky, James A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Goldstein, Joshua H.; Loomis, John B.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Semmens, Darius J.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

2018-01-01

Quantification of the economic value provided by migratory species can aid in targeting management efforts and funding to locations yielding the greatest benefits to society and species conservation. Here we illustrate a key step in this process by estimating hunting and birding values of the northern pintail (Anas acuta) within primary breeding and wintering habitats used during the species’ annual migratory cycle in North America. We used published information on user expenditures and net economic values (consumer surplus) for recreational viewing and hunting to determine the economic value of pintail-based recreation in three primary breeding areas and two primary wintering areas. Summed expenditures and consumer surplus for northern pintail viewing were annually valued at $70M, and annual sport hunting totaled $31M (2014 USD). Expenditures for viewing ($42M) were more than twice as high than those for hunting ($18M). Estimates of consumer surplus, defined as the amount consumers are willing to pay above their current expenditures, were $15M greater for viewing ($28M) than for hunting ($13M). We discovered substantial annual consumer surplus ($41M) available for pintail conservation from birders and hunters. We also found spatial differences in economic value among the primary regions used by pintails, with viewing generally valued more in breeding regions than in wintering regions and the reverse being true for hunting. The economic value of pintail-based recreation in the Western wintering region ($26M) exceeded that in any other region by at least a factor of three. Our approach of developing regionally explicit economic values can be extended to other taxonomic groups, and is particularly suitable for migratory game birds because of the availability of large amounts of data. When combined with habitat-linked population models, regionally explicit values could inform development of more effective conservation finance and policy mechanisms to enhance environmental management and societal benefits across the geographically dispersed areas used by migratory species.

Recreation economics to inform migratory species conservation: Case study of the northern pintail.

PubMed

Mattsson, Brady J; Dubovsky, James A; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Bagstad, Kenneth J; Goldstein, Joshua H; Loomis, John B; Diffendorfer, James E; Semmens, Darius J; Wiederholt, Ruscena; López-Hoffman, Laura

2018-01-15

Quantification of the economic value provided by migratory species can aid in targeting management efforts and funding to locations yielding the greatest benefits to society and species conservation. Here we illustrate a key step in this process by estimating hunting and birding values of the northern pintail (Anas acuta) within primary breeding and wintering habitats used during the species' annual migratory cycle in North America. We used published information on user expenditures and net economic values (consumer surplus) for recreational viewing and hunting to determine the economic value of pintail-based recreation in three primary breeding areas and two primary wintering areas. Summed expenditures and consumer surplus for northern pintail viewing were annually valued at $70M, and annual sport hunting totaled $31M (2014 USD). Expenditures for viewing ($42M) were more than twice as high than those for hunting ($18M). Estimates of consumer surplus, defined as the amount consumers are willing to pay above their current expenditures, were $15M greater for viewing ($28M) than for hunting ($13M). We discovered substantial annual consumer surplus ($41M) available for pintail conservation from birders and hunters. We also found spatial differences in economic value among the primary regions used by pintails, with viewing generally valued more in breeding regions than in wintering regions and the reverse being true for hunting. The economic value of pintail-based recreation in the Western wintering region ($26M) exceeded that in any other region by at least a factor of three. Our approach of developing regionally explicit economic values can be extended to other taxonomic groups, and is particularly suitable for migratory game birds because of the availability of large amounts of data. When combined with habitat-linked population models, regionally explicit values could inform development of more effective conservation finance and policy mechanisms to enhance environmental management and societal benefits across the geographically dispersed areas used by migratory species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness of Surgical Versus Conservative Treatment for Thoracolumbar Burst Fractures.

PubMed

Aras, Efe Levent; Bunger, Cody; Hansen, Ebbe Stender; Søgaard, Rikke

2016-02-01

Historical, register-based cohort study following 85 patients in the course of a time frame extending from 2 years before to 2 years after trauma occurrence. To investigate the cost-effectiveness of surgery versus conservative management for thoracolumbar burst fractures. Despite the prevalence of thoracolumbar burst fractures, consensus has still not been reached in terms of their clinical management and whereas from a health policy point of view, efficient use of resources is equally important, literature pertaining to this aspect is limited. Consecutive patients who were admitted to a university clinic between 2004 and 2008 because of CT-verified AO type A3 fractures (T11-L2), age 18 to 65 years Patients with neurological compromise, osteoporosis, or malignancy were not included. The cost parameter defined primary and secondary health-care use (2010 &OV0556;) and the effect parameter was based on three alternative measures of pain medication: morphine milligram and defined daily doses (DDD) of narcotic and nonnarcotic analgesics. For cost-effectiveness analysis, we employed a difference-in-difference approach, including control for treatment selection (age, sex, and fracture type). Nonparametric bootstrapping was used to estimate conventional 95% confidence intervals of mean estimates. When taking into consideration all health-care consumption, surgical management was observed to cost an additional &OV0556;10,734 (4215; 15,144) as compared with conservative management. The differences on morphine at 527(-3031; 6,016) milligram, narcotic analgesics at -8(-176; 127) DDD, and nonnarcotic analgesics at -3(-72; 58) DDD were all insignificant The probability for surgery being cost-effective did not exceed 50% for any value of willingness to pay for effect. Surgical management does not seem to be a cost-effective strategy as compared with conservative management for traumatic thoracolumbar burst fractures without neurological deficits. In addition, higher-volume studies examining the clinical effect of alternative management strategies would be valuable. 3.

Assisted reproductive technology in Australia and New Zealand: cumulative live birth rates as measures of success.

PubMed

Chambers, Georgina M; Paul, Repon C; Harris, Katie; Fitzgerald, Oisin; Boothroyd, Clare V; Rombauts, Luk; Chapman, Michael G; Jorm, Louisa

2017-08-07

To estimate cumulative live birth rates (CLBRs) following repeated assisted reproductive technology (ART) ovarian stimulation cycles, including all fresh and frozen/thaw embryo transfers (complete cycles). Prospective follow-up of 56 652 women commencing ART in Australian and New Zealand during 2009-2012, and followed until 2014 or the first treatment-dependent live birth. CLBRs and cycle-specific live birth rates were calculated for up to eight cycles, stratified by the age of the women (< 30, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, > 44 years). Conservative CLBRs assumed that women discontinuing treatment had no chance of achieving a live birth if had they continued treatment; optimal CLBRs assumed that they would have had the same chance as women who continued treatment. The overall CLBR was 32.7% (95% CI, 32.2-33.1%) in the first cycle, rising by the eighth cycle to 54.3% (95% CI, 53.9-54.7%) (conservative) and 77.2% (95% CI, 76.5-77.9%) (optimal). The CLBR decreased with age and number of complete cycles. For women who commenced ART treatment before 30 years of age, the CLBR for the first complete cycle was 43.7% (95% CI, 42.6-44.7%), rising to 69.2% (95% CI, 68.2-70.1%) (conservative) and 92.8% (95% CI, 91.6-94.0) (optimal) for the seventh cycle. For women aged 40-44 years, the CLBR was 10.7% (95% CI, 10.1-11.3%) for the first complete cycle, rising to 21.0% (95% CI, 20.2-21.8%) (conservative) and 37.9% (95% CI, 35.9-39.9%) (optimal) for the eighth cycle. CLBRs based on complete cycles are meaningful estimates of ART success, reflecting contemporary clinical practice and encouraging safe practice. These estimates can be used when counselling patients and to inform public policy on ART treatment.

Validation analysis of probabilistic models of dietary exposure to food additives.

PubMed

Gilsenan, M B; Thompson, R L; Lambe, J; Gibney, M J

2003-10-01

The validity of a range of simple conceptual models designed specifically for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis was assessed. Modelled intake estimates that fell below traditional conservative point estimates of intake and above 'true' additive intakes (calculated from a reference database at brand level) were considered to be in a valid region. Models were developed for 10 food additives by combining food intake data, the probability of an additive being present in a food group and additive concentration data. Food intake and additive concentration data were entered as raw data or as a lognormal distribution, and the probability of an additive being present was entered based on the per cent brands or the per cent eating occasions within a food group that contained an additive. Since the three model components assumed two possible modes of input, the validity of eight (2(3)) model combinations was assessed. All model inputs were derived from the reference database. An iterative approach was employed in which the validity of individual model components was assessed first, followed by validation of full conceptual models. While the distribution of intake estimates from models fell below conservative intakes, which assume that the additive is present at maximum permitted levels (MPLs) in all foods in which it is permitted, intake estimates were not consistently above 'true' intakes. These analyses indicate the need for more complex models for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis. Such models should incorporate information on market share and/or brand loyalty.

The economic burden of incident venous thromboembolism in the United States: A review of estimated attributable healthcare costs

PubMed Central

Grosse, Scott D.; Nelson, Richard E.; Nyarko, Kwame A.; Richardson, Lisa C.; Raskob, Gary E.

2015-01-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), which includes deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, is an important cause of preventable mortality and morbidity. In this study, we summarize estimates of per-patient and aggregate medical costs or expenditures attributable to incident VTE in the United States. Per-patient estimates of incremental costs can be calculated as the difference in costs between patients with and without an event after controlling for differences in underlying health status. We identified estimates of the incremental per-patient costs of acute VTEs and VTE-related complications, including recurrent VTE, post-thrombotic syndrome, chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, and anticoagulation-related adverse drug events. Based on the studies identified, treatment of an acute VTE on average appears to be associated with incremental direct medical costs of $12,000 to $15,000 (2014 US dollars) among first-year survivors, controlling for risk factors. Subsequent complications are conservatively estimated to increase cumulative costs to $18,000–23,000 per incident case. Annual incident VTE events conservatively cost the US healthcare system $7–10 billion each year for 375,000 to 425,000 newly diagnosed, medically treated incident VTE cases. Future studies should track long-term costs for cohorts of people with incident VTE, control for comorbid conditions that have been shown to be associated with VTE, and estimate incremental medical costs for people with VTE who do not survive. The costs associated with treating VTE can be used to assess the potential economic benefit and cost-savings from prevention efforts, although costs will vary among different patient groups. PMID:26654719

The economic burden of incident venous thromboembolism in the United States: A review of estimated attributable healthcare costs.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Nelson, Richard E; Nyarko, Kwame A; Richardson, Lisa C; Raskob, Gary E

2016-01-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), which includes deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, is an important cause of preventable mortality and morbidity. In this study, we summarize estimates of per-patient and aggregate medical costs or expenditures attributable to incident VTE in the United States. Per-patient estimates of incremental costs can be calculated as the difference in costs between patients with and without an event after controlling for differences in underlying health status. We identified estimates of the incremental per-patient costs of acute VTEs and VTE-related complications, including recurrent VTE, post-thrombotic syndrome, chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, and anticoagulation-related adverse drug events. Based on the studies identified, treatment of an acute VTE on average appears to be associated with incremental direct medical costs of $12,000 to $15,000 (2014 US dollars) among first-year survivors, controlling for risk factors. Subsequent complications are conservatively estimated to increase cumulative costs to $18,000-23,000 per incident case. Annual incident VTE events conservatively cost the US healthcare system $7-10 billion each year for 375,000 to 425,000 newly diagnosed, medically treated incident VTE cases. Future studies should track long-term costs for cohorts of people with incident VTE, control for comorbid conditions that have been shown to be associated with VTE, and estimate incremental medical costs for people with VTE who do not survive. The costs associated with treating VTE can be used to assess the potential economic benefit and cost-savings from prevention efforts, although costs will vary among different patient groups. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Development of Preliminary Remediation Goals for Indoor Dust at the Colonie FUSRAP Site - 12273

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watters, David J.; Opdyke, Clifford P.; Moore, James T.

2012-07-01

The Colonie FUSRAP Site is located in the Town of Colonie, Albany County, New York. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is currently addressing environmental contamination associated with the Site under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) process as part of the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Soil remediation activities have been substantially completed at the Colonie FUSRAP Site and its vicinity properties under the FUSRAP. A study unrelated to FUSRAP was recently performed by an independent party to establish the distribution of DU contamination in various media in the environs of the Site. Asmore » part of this study, dust samples were collected in residencies and businesses in the immediate vicinity of the Site. These samples were collected in non-living areas such as basement window sills and garages. Many of these samples tested positive for DU. An assessment was performed to establish preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) for indoor dust in non-living areas of residential homes and businesses in the vicinity of the Site. The results of this assessment provide estimates of dose-based, carcinogenic risk-based, and noncarcinogenic-based PRGs derived from a hypothetical exposure scenario with reasonable levels of conservatism. Ultimately, the PRGs will be compared to results of dust sampling and analyses in residences and businesses in proximity of the Site to determine whether a response action is appropriate. This assessment estimates PRGs for DU contaminated dust in non-living areas of residences in the vicinity of the Colonie FUSRAP site based on a reasonably conservative exposure scenario. Estimated PRGs based on residential receptors are considered to be conservatively representative of workers in nearby businesses based on the considerably longer exposure duration of residents relative to workers. This assessment provides reasonably conservative estimates of PRGs for DU contaminated dust in non-living areas within residences in the vicinity of the Site. It should be noted that the PRGs include hypothetical exposures resulting from activities in both the living areas and non-living areas of a residence. The PRGs are derived and presented in terms of DU dust concentration in non-living areas to facilitate comparison to results of a planned Site Investigation that will characterize concentrations of DU in dust in non-living areas. It is important to recognize that the exposure assumptions used to derive these PRGs are based on average dust DU concentrations in non-living areas. It is inappropriate to compare these PRGs to the dust DU concentration in an isolated small area. The ongoing Site Investigation addresses this consideration and is designed to provide reasonable estimates of average dust DU concentrations in non-living areas of vicinity properties. In order to accomplish this, sampling is conducted in accordance with EPA Guidance for the Sampling and Analysis of Lead in Indoor Residential Dust for Use in the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model, (EPA 2008), which specifically addresses estimating average contaminant concentrations in dust. Four (4) large-area samples are collected from each VP in accordance with this guidance. It is anticipated that the results of the Site Investigation will be used in conjunction with the results of this assessment, and/or subsequent assessments, to establish whether or not a response action is appropriate. (authors)« less

An integrated modeling approach for estimating the water quality benefits of conservation practices at the river basin scale

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The USDA initiated the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices at regional and national scales. For this assessment, a sampling and modeling approach is used. This paper provides a technical overview of the modeling approach use...

Estimating the effects of agricultural conservation practices on phosphorus loads in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agriculture in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin (MARB) is important in terms of both the national economy and the nutrients discharged to the basin and the Gulf of Mexico. Conservation practices are installed on cropland to reduce the nutrient losses. A recent study by the Conservation Effec...

Gene Polymorphism Studies in a Teaching Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shultz, Jeffry

2009-02-01

I present a laboratory procedure for illustrating transcription, post-transcriptional modification, gene conservation, and comparative genetics for use in undergraduate biology education. Students are individually assigned genes in a targeted biochemical pathway, for which they design and test polymerase chain reaction (PCR) primers. In this example, students used genes annotated for the steroid biosynthesis pathway in soybean. The authoritative Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes (KEGG) interactive database and other online resources were used to design primers based first on soybean expressed sequence tags (ESTs), then on ESTs from an alternate organism if soybean sequence was unavailable. Students designed a total of 50 gene-based primer pairs (37 soybean, 13 alternative) and tested these for polymorphism state and similarity between two soybean and two pea lines. Student assessment was based on acquisition of laboratory skills and successful project completion. This simple procedure illustrates conservation of genes and is not limited to soybean or pea. Cost per student estimates are included, along with a detailed protocol and flow diagram of the procedure.

Wood products used in constructing conservation and development projects by the Corps of Engineers in the United States, 1962 and 1978

Treesearch

W. H. Reid; D. B. McKeever

Estimates of the amounts of wood products used in constructing civil conservation and development projects by the Corps of Engineers in the United States are presented for the years 1962 and 1978. Amounts of lumber, laminated lumber, poles and piling, and plywood used in construction are stratified by five construction categories, and three types of uses. Estimates of...

Data and methodological problems in establishing state gasoline-conservation targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greene, D.L.; Walton, G.H.

The Emergency Energy Conservation Act of 1979 gives the President the authority to set gasoline-conservation targets for states in the event of a supply shortage. This paper examines data and methodological problems associated with setting state gasoline-conservation targets. The target-setting method currently used is examined and found to have some flaws. Ways of correcting these deficiencies through the use of Box-Jenkins time-series analysis are investigated. A successful estimation of Box-Jenkins models for all states included the estimation of the magnitude of the supply shortages of 1979 in each state and a preliminary estimation of state short-run price elasticities, which weremore » found to vary about a median value of -0.16. The time-series models identified were very simple in structure and lent support to the simple consumption growth model assumed by the current target method. The authors conclude that the flaws in the current method can be remedied either by replacing the current procedures with time-series models or by using the models in conjunction with minor modifications of the current method.« less

Energy and Economic Impacts of U.S. Federal Energy and Water Conservation Standards Adopted From 1987 Through 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers, Stephen; Williams, Alison; Chan, Peter

This paper presents estimates of the key impacts of Federal energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2015. The standards for consumer products and commercial and industrial equipment include those set by legislation as well as standards adopted by DOE through rulemaking. In 2015, the standards saved an estimated 4.49 quads of primary energy, which is equivalent to 5% of total U.S. energy consumption. The savings in operating costs for households and businesses totaled $63.4 billion. The average household saved $320 in operating costs as a result of residential appliance standards. The estimated reduction in CO2 emissions associatedmore » with the standards in 2015 was 238 million metric tons, which is equivalent to 4.3% of total U.S. CO2 emissions. The estimated cumulative energy savings over the period 1990-2090 amount to 216.9 quads. Accounting for the increased upfront costs of more-efficient products and the operating cost (energy and water) savings over the products’ lifetime, the standards have a cumulative net present value (NPV) of consumer benefit of between $1,627 billion and $1,887 billion, using 7 percent and 3 percent discount rates, respectively. The water conservation standards, together with energy conservation standards that also save water, reduced water use by 1.9 trillion gallons in 2015 and estimated cumulative water savings by 2090 amount to 55 trillion gallons. The estimated consumer savings in 2015 from reduced water use amounted to $12 billon.« less

Using virtual reality to estimate aesthetic values of coral reefs

PubMed Central

Clifford, Sam; Caley, M. Julian; Pearse, Alan R.; Brown, Ross; James, Allan; Christensen, Bryce; Bednarz, Tomasz; Anthony, Ken; González-Rivero, Manuel; Mengersen, Kerrie; Peterson, Erin E.

2018-01-01

Aesthetic value, or beauty, is important to the relationship between humans and natural environments and is, therefore, a fundamental socio-economic attribute of conservation alongside other ecosystem services. However, beauty is difficult to quantify and is not estimated well using traditional approaches to monitoring coral-reef aesthetics. To improve the estimation of ecosystem aesthetic values, we developed and implemented a novel framework used to quantify features of coral-reef aesthetics based on people's perceptions of beauty. Three observer groups with different experience to reef environments (Marine Scientist, Experienced Diver and Citizen) were virtually immersed in Australian's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) using 360° images. Perceptions of beauty and observations were used to assess the importance of eight potential attributes of reef-aesthetic value. Among these, heterogeneity, defined by structural complexity and colour diversity, was positively associated with coral-reef-aesthetic values. There were no group-level differences in the way the observer groups perceived reef aesthetics suggesting that past experiences with coral reefs do not necessarily influence the perception of beauty by the observer. The framework developed here provides a generic tool to help identify indicators of aesthetic value applicable to a wide variety of natural systems. The ability to estimate aesthetic values robustly adds an important dimension to the holistic conservation of the GBR, coral reefs worldwide and other natural ecosystems. PMID:29765676

CO2 Fluxes Associated with Soil Organic C Stock Changes in the Mid-Continent Region of the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogle, S. M.; Paustian, K.; Easter, M.; Killian, K.; Williams, S.

2005-12-01

Regional CO2 sources and sinks need to be quantified in the terrestrial biosphere for basic understanding and policy development. Our objective was to quantify CO2 fluxes for the Mid-Continent Region of the US, including Iowa and neighboring areas in adjacent states, using a "bottom-up" simulation modeling approach. Soils represent an important potential sink for this largely agricultural region because of limited potential for CO2 uptake and storage in woody biomass. SOC stocks were estimated to have increased during the 1990s at a rate equivalent to 3.81 Tg CO2 yr-1, but with considerable sub-regional variation due to differences in land use and management patterns. Sinks were driven by conservation tillage adoption, enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program, and conversion of annual crops to continuous hay or pasture. The dominant source of CO2 from soils in the Mid-Continent Region was attributed to drainage and cultivation of organic soils. Uncertainties in regional estimates were determined using a Monte Carlo Analysis and empirically-based uncertainty estimator, and the largest uncertainties were associated with estimating the fluxes from drained organic soils. A major research challenge is to verify the accuracy of these rates using "top-down" atmospheric budgets that are independent of the bottom-up inventory.

Using virtual reality to estimate aesthetic values of coral reefs.

PubMed

Vercelloni, Julie; Clifford, Sam; Caley, M Julian; Pearse, Alan R; Brown, Ross; James, Allan; Christensen, Bryce; Bednarz, Tomasz; Anthony, Ken; González-Rivero, Manuel; Mengersen, Kerrie; Peterson, Erin E

2018-04-01

Aesthetic value, or beauty, is important to the relationship between humans and natural environments and is, therefore, a fundamental socio-economic attribute of conservation alongside other ecosystem services. However, beauty is difficult to quantify and is not estimated well using traditional approaches to monitoring coral-reef aesthetics. To improve the estimation of ecosystem aesthetic values, we developed and implemented a novel framework used to quantify features of coral-reef aesthetics based on people's perceptions of beauty. Three observer groups with different experience to reef environments (Marine Scientist, Experienced Diver and Citizen) were virtually immersed in Australian's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) using 360° images. Perceptions of beauty and observations were used to assess the importance of eight potential attributes of reef-aesthetic value. Among these, heterogeneity, defined by structural complexity and colour diversity, was positively associated with coral-reef-aesthetic values. There were no group-level differences in the way the observer groups perceived reef aesthetics suggesting that past experiences with coral reefs do not necessarily influence the perception of beauty by the observer. The framework developed here provides a generic tool to help identify indicators of aesthetic value applicable to a wide variety of natural systems. The ability to estimate aesthetic values robustly adds an important dimension to the holistic conservation of the GBR, coral reefs worldwide and other natural ecosystems.

Sediment yield estimation in mountain catchments of the Camastra reservoir, southern Italy: a comparison among different empirical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazzari, Maurizio; Danese, Maria; Gioia, Dario; Piccarreta, Marco

2013-04-01

Sedimentary budget estimation is an important topic for both scientific and social community, because it is crucial to understand both dynamics of orogenic belts and many practical problems, such as soil conservation and sediment accumulation in reservoir. Estimations of sediment yield or denudation rates in southern-central Italy are generally obtained by simple empirical relationships based on statistical regression between geomorphic parameters of the drainage network and the measured suspended sediment yield at the outlet of several drainage basins or through the use of models based on sediment delivery ratio or on soil loss equations. In this work, we perform a study of catchment dynamics and an estimation of sedimentary yield for several mountain catchments of the central-western sector of the Basilicata region, southern Italy. Sediment yield estimation has been obtained through both an indirect estimation of suspended sediment yield based on the Tu index (mean annual suspension sediment yield, Ciccacci et al., 1980) and the application of the Rusle (Renard et al., 1997) and the USPED (Mitasova et al., 1996) empirical methods. The preliminary results indicate a reliable difference between the RUSLE and USPED methods and the estimation based on the Tu index; a critical data analysis of results has been carried out considering also the present-day spatial distribution of erosion, transport and depositional processes in relation to the maps obtained from the application of those different empirical methods. The studied catchments drain an artificial reservoir (i.e. the Camastra dam), where a detailed evaluation of the amount of historical sediment storage has been collected. Sediment yield estimation obtained by means of the empirical methods have been compared and checked with historical data of sediment accumulation measured in the artificial reservoir of the Camastra dam. The validation of such estimations of sediment yield at the scale of large catchments using sediment storage in reservoirs provides a good opportunity: i) to test the reliability of the empirical methods used to estimate the sediment yield; ii) to investigate the catchment dynamics and its spatial and temporal evolution in terms of erosion, transport and deposition. References Ciccacci S., Fredi F., Lupia Palmieri E., Pugliese F., 1980. Contributo dell'analisi geomorfica quantitativa alla valutazione dell'entita dell'erosione nei bacini fluviali. Bollettino della Società Geologica Italiana 99: 455-516. Mitasova H, Hofierka J, Zlocha M, Iverson LR. 1996. Modeling topographic potential for erosion and deposition using GIS. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems 10: 629-641. Renard K.G., Foster G.R., Weesies G.A., McCool D.K., Yoder D.C., 1997. Predicting soil erosion by water: a guide to conservation planning with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), USDA-ARS, Agricultural Handbook No. 703.

Impacts of early viability selection on management of inbreeding and genetic diversity in conservation.

PubMed

Grueber, Catherine E; Hogg, Carolyn J; Ivy, Jamie A; Belov, Katherine

2015-04-01

Maintaining genetic diversity is a crucial goal of intensive management of threatened species, particularly for those populations that act as sources for translocation or re-introduction programmes. Most captive genetic management is based on pedigrees and a neutral theory of inheritance, an assumption that may be violated by selective forces operating in captivity. Here, we explore the conservation consequences of early viability selection: differential offspring survival that occurs prior to management or research observations, such as embryo deaths in utero. If early viability selection produces genotypic deviations from Mendelian predictions, it may undermine management strategies intended to minimize inbreeding and maintain genetic diversity. We use empirical examples to demonstrate that straightforward approaches, such as comparing litter sizes of inbred vs. noninbred breeding pairs, can be used to test whether early viability selection likely impacts estimates of inbreeding depression. We also show that comparing multilocus genotype data to pedigree predictions can reveal whether early viability selection drives systematic biases in genetic diversity, patterns that would not be detected using pedigree-based statistics alone. More sophisticated analysis combining genomewide molecular data with pedigree information will enable conservation scientists to test whether early viability selection drives deviations from neutrality across wide stretches of the genome, revealing whether this form of selection biases the pedigree-based statistics and inference upon which intensive management is based. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Contributions of Arctic PRISM to monitoring western hemispheric shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Smith, Paul A.; Andres, Brad A.; Donaldson, Garry; Brown, Stephen

2012-01-01

Long-term monitoring of populations is of paramount importance to understanding responses oforganisms to global environmental change and to evaluating whether conservation practices are yielding intended results through time (Wiens 2009). The population status of many shorebird species, the focus of this volume, remain poorly known. Long-distance migrant shorebirds have proven particularly difficult to monitor, in part because of their highly migratory nature and ranges that extend into highly inaccessible regions. As migrant shorebirds travel the length of the hemisphere, they congregate and disperse in ways that vary among species, locations, and years, presenting serious challenges to designing and implementing monitoring programs. Rigorous field and quantitative methods that estimate population size and monitor trends are vitally needed to direct and evaluate effective conservation measures. Many management efforts depend on unbiased population size estimates; for example, the shorebird conservation plans for both Canada and the United States seek to restore populations to levels calculated for the 1970s based on the best information available from existing surveys. Further, federal wildlife agencies within the United States and Canada have mandates to understand the state of their nations' resources under various conventions for the protection of migratory birds. Accurate estimates of population size are vital statistics for a variety of conservation activities, such as prioritizing species for conservation action and setting management targets. Areas of essential habitat, such as those designated under the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network, the Important Bird Areas program of BirdLife International and the National Audubon Society, or Canada's National Wildlife Areas program, are all evaluated on the basis ofproportions of species' populations which they contain. The size, and trends in size, ofa species' population are considered key information for assessing its vulnerability and subsequent listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. To meet the need for information on population size and trends, shorebird biologists from Canada and the United States proposed a shared blueprint for shorebird monitoring across the Western Hemisphere in the late 1990s; this effort was undertaken in concert with the development of the Canadian and U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plans (Donaldson et al. 2000, Brown et aL 2001). Soon thereafter, partners in the monitoring effort adopted the name "Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring" (PRISM). Among the primary objectives of PRISM were to estimate the population sizes and trends of breeding North American shorebirds and describe their distributions (Bart et al. 2002). PRISM members evaluated ongoing and potential monitoring approaches to address 74 taxa (including subspecies) and proposed a combination of arctic andboreal breeding surveys, temperate breeding and non-breeding surveys, and neotropical surveys.

Supporting elephant conservation in Sri Lanka through MODIS imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Kithsiri; Tateishi, Ryutaro

2012-10-01

The latest national elephant survey of Sri Lanka (2011) revealed Sri Lanka has 5,879 elephants. The total forest cover for these elephants is about 19,500 sq km (2012 estimation) and estimated forest area is about 30% of the country when smaller green patches are also counted. However, studies have pointed out that a herd of elephants need about a 100 sq km of forest patch to survive. With a high human population density (332 people per sq km, 2010), the pressure for land to feed people and elephants is becoming critical. Resent reports have indicated about 250 elephants are killed annually by farmers and dozens of people are also killed by elephants. Under this context, researchers are investigating various methods to assess the elephant movements to address the issues of Human-Elephant-Conflict (HEC). Apart from various local remedies for the issue, the conservation of elephant population can be supported by satellite imagery based studies. MODIS sensor imagery can be considered as a successful candidate here. Its spatial resolution is low (250m x 250m) but automatically filters out small forest patches in the mapping process. The daily imagery helps to monitor temporal forest cover changes. This study investigated the background information of HEC and used MODIS 250m imagery to suggest applicability of satellite data for Elephant conservations efforts. The elephant movement information was gathered from local authorities and potentials to identify bio-corridors were discussed. Under future research steps, regular forest cover monitoring through MODIS data was emphasized as a valuable tool in elephant conservations efforts.

Development and use of long-term, global data records of forest, water, and urban change for terrestrial ecology and carbon cycle science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sexton, J. O.

2015-12-01

Earth's human population has risen over the last century from less than 2 billion to over 7 billion people. The current "Anthropocene Era" has brought changes in Earth's landforms, climate, biodiversity, atmosphere, and hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles, as well as the expansion and intensification of human land use. As the emerging nexus of the physical, biological, and social sciences, measurements of Earth's natural and anthropogenic land cover are needed to understand and manage the coupled dynamics of human and natural systems. In recent years, NASA-sponsored efforts have produced global, time-serial estimates of tree cover using the MOderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the world's first global, Landsat-based datasets representing tree and forest cover change from 1990 to 2010. These data are fueling global and national estimates of the rate and acceleration of deforestation as well as international commitments to conserve forest ecosystems. Likewise, Landsat-based datasets documenting Earth's inland surface waters are enabling the world's first global, high-resolution estimates of water cover based on repeatable satellite measurements. Meanwhile, long-term, time-serial estimates of impervious surface cover are being used to model the effect of urbanization on storm-water runoff, watershed health, and stream biodiversity. MODIS-based records of plant phenology are depicting the vulnerability and resilience of ecosystems to drought and are informing land managers of the sensitivity of wildlife to climate and plant phenology. Natural ecosystems are complex and potentially chaotic even in the absence of anthropogenic influence, and so understanding these interactions between physical, biological, and social systems is increasingly crucial under escalating human impacts. Globally consistent, locally accurate, and publicly available records spanning multiple decades at high frequency are the living legacy of the NASA Earth Science Programs. Satellite-based monitoring of ecosystem dynamics has improved the objectivity, precision, and sustainability of ecosystem management, which is paramount not only for conserving ecosystem function, but also for adapting socio-economic systems to their changing biophysical environment.

The First Estimates of Marbled Cat Pardofelis marmorata Population Density from Bornean Primary and Selectively Logged Forest.

PubMed

Hearn, Andrew J; Ross, Joanna; Bernard, Henry; Bakar, Soffian Abu; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W

2016-01-01

The marbled cat Pardofelis marmorata is a poorly known wild cat that has a broad distribution across much of the Indomalayan ecorealm. This felid is thought to exist at low population densities throughout its range, yet no estimates of its abundance exist, hampering assessment of its conservation status. To investigate the distribution and abundance of marbled cats we conducted intensive, felid-focused camera trap surveys of eight forest areas and two oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Study sites were broadly representative of the range of habitat types and the gradient of anthropogenic disturbance and fragmentation present in contemporary Sabah. We recorded marbled cats from all forest study areas apart from a small, relatively isolated forest patch, although photographic detection frequency varied greatly between areas. No marbled cats were recorded within the plantations, but a single individual was recorded walking along the forest/plantation boundary. We collected sufficient numbers of marbled cat photographic captures at three study areas to permit density estimation based on spatially explicit capture-recapture analyses. Estimates of population density from the primary, lowland Danum Valley Conservation Area and primary upland, Tawau Hills Park, were 19.57 (SD: 8.36) and 7.10 (SD: 1.90) individuals per 100 km2, respectively, and the selectively logged, lowland Tabin Wildlife Reserve yielded an estimated density of 10.45 (SD: 3.38) individuals per 100 km2. The low detection frequencies recorded in our other survey sites and from published studies elsewhere in its range, and the absence of previous density estimates for this felid suggest that our density estimates may be from the higher end of their abundance spectrum. We provide recommendations for future marbled cat survey approaches.

Hydrological parameter estimations from a conservative tracer test with variable-density effects at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dafflon, B.; Barrash, W.; Cardiff, M.; Johnson, T. C.

2011-12-01

Reliable predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport require an estimation of the detailed distribution of the parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity) controlling these processes. However, such parameters are difficult to estimate because of the inaccessibility and complexity of the subsurface. In this regard, developments in parameter estimation techniques and investigations of field experiments are still challenging and necessary to improve our understanding and the prediction of hydrological processes. Here we analyze a conservative tracer test conducted at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site in 2001 in a heterogeneous unconfined fluvial aquifer. Some relevant characteristics of this test include: variable-density (sinking) effects because of the injection concentration of the bromide tracer, the relatively small size of the experiment, and the availability of various sources of geophysical and hydrological information. The information contained in this experiment is evaluated through several parameter estimation approaches, including a grid-search-based strategy, stochastic simulation of hydrological property distributions, and deterministic inversion using regularization and pilot-point techniques. Doing this allows us to investigate hydraulic conductivity and effective porosity distributions and to compare the effects of assumptions from several methods and parameterizations. Our results provide new insights into the understanding of variable-density transport processes and the hydrological relevance of incorporating various sources of information in parameter estimation approaches. Among others, the variable-density effect and the effective porosity distribution, as well as their coupling with the hydraulic conductivity structure, are seen to be significant in the transport process. The results also show that assumed prior information can strongly influence the estimated distributions of hydrological properties.

The First Estimates of Marbled Cat Pardofelis marmorata Population Density from Bornean Primary and Selectively Logged Forest

PubMed Central

Hearn, Andrew J.; Ross, Joanna; Bernard, Henry; Bakar, Soffian Abu; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Macdonald, David W.

2016-01-01

The marbled cat Pardofelis marmorata is a poorly known wild cat that has a broad distribution across much of the Indomalayan ecorealm. This felid is thought to exist at low population densities throughout its range, yet no estimates of its abundance exist, hampering assessment of its conservation status. To investigate the distribution and abundance of marbled cats we conducted intensive, felid-focused camera trap surveys of eight forest areas and two oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Study sites were broadly representative of the range of habitat types and the gradient of anthropogenic disturbance and fragmentation present in contemporary Sabah. We recorded marbled cats from all forest study areas apart from a small, relatively isolated forest patch, although photographic detection frequency varied greatly between areas. No marbled cats were recorded within the plantations, but a single individual was recorded walking along the forest/plantation boundary. We collected sufficient numbers of marbled cat photographic captures at three study areas to permit density estimation based on spatially explicit capture-recapture analyses. Estimates of population density from the primary, lowland Danum Valley Conservation Area and primary upland, Tawau Hills Park, were 19.57 (SD: 8.36) and 7.10 (SD: 1.90) individuals per 100 km2, respectively, and the selectively logged, lowland Tabin Wildlife Reserve yielded an estimated density of 10.45 (SD: 3.38) individuals per 100 km2. The low detection frequencies recorded in our other survey sites and from published studies elsewhere in its range, and the absence of previous density estimates for this felid suggest that our density estimates may be from the higher end of their abundance spectrum. We provide recommendations for future marbled cat survey approaches. PMID:27007219

Watershed prioritization in the upper Han River basin for soil and water conservation in the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (middle route) of China.

PubMed

Wu, Haibing

2018-01-01

Watershed prioritization with the objective of identifying critical areas to undertake soil and water conservation measures was conducted in the upper Han River basin, the water source area of approximately 95,000 km 2 for the middle route of China's South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Based on the estimated soil erosion intensity in uplands and clustering analysis of measured nutrient concentrations in rivers, the basin was grouped into very-high-, high-, moderate-, and low-priority regions for water and soil conservation, respectively. The results indicated that soil erosion was primarily controlled by topography, and nutrients in rivers were associated with land use and land cover in uplands. Also, there was large spatial disparity between soil erosion intensity in the uplands and nutrient concentrations in the rivers across the basin. Analysis was then performed to prioritize the basin by the integration of the soil erosion intensity and water quality on a GIS platform in order to identify critical areas for water and soil conservation in the basin. The identified high-priority regions which occupy 5.74% of the drainage areas need immediate attention for soil and water conservation treatments, of which 5.28% is critical for soil erosion prevention and 0.46% for water conservation. Understandings of the basin environment and pollutant loading with spatial explicit are critical to the soil and water resource conservation for the interbasin water transfer project.

Time providing care outside visits in a home-based primary care program

PubMed Central

Pedowitz, Elizabeth J.; Ornstein, Katherine A.; Farber, Jeffrey; DeCherrie, Linda V.

2016-01-01

Background/Objectives Homebound elderly patients with chronic medical illnesses face multiple barriers to care. Primary care physicians (PCPs) devote a significant amount of time to care apart from actual office visits, but there is little quantification of such time by physicians who provide primary care in the home. This article assesses exactly how much time physicians in a large home based primary care (HBPC) program spend providing care outside of home visits. Unreimbursed time, as well as patient and provider-related factors that may contribute to that increased time, are considered. Design Mount Sinai Visiting Doctors (MSVD) providers filled out research forms for every interaction involving care provision outside of home visits. Data collected included: length of interaction, mode, nature, and whom the interaction was with for 3 weeks. Setting/Participants MSVD is an academic home-visit program in Manhattan, NY. All PCPs in MSVD (n=14) agreed to participate. Measurements Time data were analyzed using a comprehensive estimate and conservative estimates to quantify unbillable time. Results Data on 1151 interactions for 537 patients were collected. An average 8.2 hours/week were spent providing non-home visit care for a full-time provider. Using the most conservative estimates, 3.6 hours/week was estimated to be unreimbursed per full-time provider. No significant differences in interaction times were found among dementia vs. non-dementia patients, new vs. non-new patients, and primary-panel vs. covered patients. Conclusion Findings suggest that HBPC providers spend substantial time providing care outside home visits, much of which goes unrecognized in the current reimbursement system. These findings may help guide practice development and creation of new payment systems for HBPC and similar models of care. PMID:24802078

Energy use and conservation trends, 1972--1986

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klan, M.S.; Belzer, D.B.; Marsh, S.J.

1989-02-01

US trends in energy use and conservation since 1972 are analyzed in this report. That year represents the last year prior to significant energy price shocks. In 1986, an estimated 31.8 quads has been saved in the US compared with what consumption would have been if the energy use per dollar of GNP had continued on the same trend after 1972 as in the period 1960--1972. Actual US energy consumption in 1986 was 74.3 quads. It is clear that energy conservation is persistent and conservation investments continue to pay off even after initial energy price shocks have subsided. Separate analysesmore » have been conducted for the major end-use sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation). Savings have been estimated in each sector, and the factors contributing to sectoral savings identified. 19 refs., 23 figs., 26 tabs.« less

Cloud-Based Service Information System for Evaluating Quality of Life after Breast Cancer Surgery.

PubMed

Kao, Hao-Yun; Wu, Wen-Hsiung; Liang, Tyng-Yeu; Lee, King-The; Hou, Ming-Feng; Shi, Hon-Yi

2015-01-01

Although recent studies have improved understanding of quality of life (QOL) outcomes of breast conserving surgery, few have used longitudinal data for more than two time points, and few have examined predictors of QOL over two years. Additionally, the longitudinal data analyses in such studies rarely apply the appropriate statistical methodology to control for censoring and inter-correlations arising from repeated measures obtained from the same patient pool. This study evaluated an internet-based system for measuring longitudinal changes in QOL and developed a cloud-based system for managing patients after breast conserving surgery. This prospective study analyzed 657 breast cancer patients treated at three tertiary academic hospitals. Related hospital personnel such as surgeons and other healthcare professionals were also interviewed to determine the requirements for an effective cloud-based system for surveying QOL in breast cancer patients. All patients completed the SF-36, Quality of Life Questionnaire (QLQ-C30) and its supplementary breast cancer measure (QLQ-BR23) at baseline, 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years postoperatively. The 95% confidence intervals for differences in responsiveness estimates were derived by bootstrap estimation. Scores derived by these instruments were interpreted by generalized estimating equation before and after surgery. All breast cancer surgery patients had significantly improved QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BR23 subscale scores throughout the 2-year follow-up period (p<0.05). During the study period, QOL generally had a negative association with advanced age, high Charlson comorbidity index score, tumor stage III or IV, previous chemotherapy, and long post-operative LOS. Conversely, QOL was positively associated with previous radiotherapy and hormone therapy. Additionally, patients with high scores for preoperative QOL tended to have high scores for QLQ-C30, QLQ-BR23 and SF-36 subscales. Based on the results of usability testing, the five constructs were rated on a Likert scale from 1-7 as follows: system usefulness (5.6±1.8), ease of use (5.6±1.5), information quality (5.4±1.4), interface quality (5.5±1.4), and overall satisfaction (5.5±1.6). The current trend in clinical medicine is applying therapies and interventions that improve QOL. Therefore, a potentially vast amount of internet-based QOL data is available for use in defining patient populations that may benefit from therapeutic intervention. Additionally, before undergoing breast conserving surgery, patients should be advised that their postoperative QOL depends not only on the success of the surgery, but also on their preoperative functional status.

Cloud-Based Service Information System for Evaluating Quality of Life after Breast Cancer Surgery

PubMed Central

Kao, Hao-Yun; Wu, Wen-Hsiung; Liang, Tyng-Yeu; Lee, King-The; Hou, Ming-Feng; Shi, Hon-Yi

2015-01-01

Objective Although recent studies have improved understanding of quality of life (QOL) outcomes of breast conserving surgery, few have used longitudinal data for more than two time points, and few have examined predictors of QOL over two years. Additionally, the longitudinal data analyses in such studies rarely apply the appropriate statistical methodology to control for censoring and inter-correlations arising from repeated measures obtained from the same patient pool. This study evaluated an internet-based system for measuring longitudinal changes in QOL and developed a cloud-based system for managing patients after breast conserving surgery. Methods This prospective study analyzed 657 breast cancer patients treated at three tertiary academic hospitals. Related hospital personnel such as surgeons and other healthcare professionals were also interviewed to determine the requirements for an effective cloud-based system for surveying QOL in breast cancer patients. All patients completed the SF-36, Quality of Life Questionnaire (QLQ-C30) and its supplementary breast cancer measure (QLQ-BR23) at baseline, 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years postoperatively. The 95% confidence intervals for differences in responsiveness estimates were derived by bootstrap estimation. Scores derived by these instruments were interpreted by generalized estimating equation before and after surgery. Results All breast cancer surgery patients had significantly improved QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BR23 subscale scores throughout the 2-year follow-up period (p<0.05). During the study period, QOL generally had a negative association with advanced age, high Charlson comorbidity index score, tumor stage III or IV, previous chemotherapy, and long post-operative LOS. Conversely, QOL was positively associated with previous radiotherapy and hormone therapy. Additionally, patients with high scores for preoperative QOL tended to have high scores for QLQ-C30, QLQ-BR23 and SF-36 subscales. Based on the results of usability testing, the five constructs were rated on a Likert scale from 1–7 as follows: system usefulness (5.6±1.8), ease of use (5.6±1.5), information quality (5.4±1.4), interface quality (5.5±1.4), and overall satisfaction (5.5±1.6). Conclusions The current trend in clinical medicine is applying therapies and interventions that improve QOL. Therefore, a potentially vast amount of internet-based QOL data is available for use in defining patient populations that may benefit from therapeutic intervention. Additionally, before undergoing breast conserving surgery, patients should be advised that their postoperative QOL depends not only on the success of the surgery, but also on their preoperative functional status. PMID:26422018

Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas

PubMed Central

Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

2016-01-01

Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3–13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506

Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

PubMed

White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

2016-01-01

Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

Characterization of background concentrations of contaminants using a mixture of normal distributions.

PubMed

Qian, Song S; Lyons, Regan E

2006-10-01

We present a Bayesian approach for characterizing background contaminant concentration distributions using data from sites that may have been contaminated. Our method, focused on estimation, resolves several technical problems of the existing methods sanctioned by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) (a hypothesis testing based method), resulting in a simple and quick procedure for estimating background contaminant concentrations. The proposed Bayesian method is applied to two data sets from a federal facility regulated under the Resource Conservation and Restoration Act. The results are compared to background distributions identified using existing methods recommended by the USEPA. The two data sets represent low and moderate levels of censorship in the data. Although an unbiased estimator is elusive, we show that the proposed Bayesian estimation method will have a smaller bias than the EPA recommended method.

Understanding and estimating effective population size for practical application in marine species management.

PubMed

Hare, Matthew P; Nunney, Leonard; Schwartz, Michael K; Ruzzante, Daniel E; Burford, Martha; Waples, Robin S; Ruegg, Kristen; Palstra, Friso

2011-06-01

Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift in a population and has long been recognized as an important parameter for evaluating conservation status and threats to genetic health of populations. Specifically, an estimate of N(e) is crucial to management because it integrates genetic effects with the life history of the species, allowing for predictions of a population's current and future viability. Nevertheless, compared with ecological and demographic parameters, N(e) has had limited influence on species management, beyond its application in very small populations. Recent developments have substantially improved N(e) estimation; however, some obstacles remain for the practical application of N(e) estimates. For example, the need to define the spatial and temporal scale of measurement makes the concept complex and sometimes difficult to interpret. We reviewed approaches to estimation of N(e) over both long-term and contemporary time frames, clarifying their interpretations with respect to local populations and the global metapopulation. We describe multiple experimental factors affecting robustness of contemporary N(e) estimates and suggest that different sampling designs can be combined to compare largely independent measures of N(e) for improved confidence in the result. Large populations with moderate gene flow pose the greatest challenges to robust estimation of contemporary N(e) and require careful consideration of sampling and analysis to minimize estimator bias. We emphasize the practical utility of estimating N(e) by highlighting its relevance to the adaptive potential of a population and describing applications in management of marine populations, where the focus is not always on critically endangered populations. Two cases discussed include the mechanisms generating N(e) estimates many orders of magnitude lower than census N in harvested marine fishes and the predicted reduction in N(e) from hatchery-based population supplementation. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Reliability of Different Mark-Recapture Methods for Population Size Estimation Tested against Reference Population Sizes Constructed from Field Data

PubMed Central

Grimm, Annegret; Gruber, Bernd; Henle, Klaus

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK). If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2). Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to evaluate the performance of mark-recapture population size estimators under field conditions, which is essential for selecting an appropriate method and obtaining reliable results in ecology and conservation biology, and thus for sound management. PMID:24896260

Estimating the Energy, Demand and Cost Savings from a Geothermal Heat Pump ESPC Project at Fort Polk, LA Through Utility Bill Analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shonder, John A; Hughes, Patrick

2006-01-01

Energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) are a method of financing energy conservation projects using the energy cost savings generated by the conservation measures themselves. Ideally, reduced energy costs are visible as reduced utility bills, but in fact this is not always the case. On large military bases, for example, a single electric meter typically covers hundreds of individual buildings. Savings from an ESPC involving only a small number of these buildings will have little effect on the overall utility bill. In fact, changes in mission, occupancy, and energy prices could cause substantial increases in utility bills. For this reason, other,more » more practical, methods have been developed to measure and verify savings in ESPC projects. Nevertheless, increasing utility bills--when ESPCs are expected to be reducing them--are problematic and can lead some observers to question whether savings are actually being achieved. In this paper, the authors use utility bill analysis to determine energy, demand, and cost savings from an ESPC project that installed geothermal heat pumps in the family housing areas of the military base at Fort Polk, Louisiana. The savings estimates for the first year after the retrofits were found to be in substantial agreement with previous estimates that were based on submetered data. However, the utility bills also show that electrical use tended to increase as time went on. Since other data show that the energy use in family housing has remained about the same over the period, the authors conclude that the savings from the ESPC have persisted, and increases in electrical use must be due to loads unassociated with family housing. This shows that under certain circumstances, and with the proper analysis, utility bills can be used to estimate savings from ESPC projects. However, these circumstances are rare and over time the comparison may be invalidated by increases in energy use in areas unaffected by the ESPC.« less

Model-based approach for quantitative estimates of skin, heart, and lung toxicity risk for left-side photon and proton irradiation after breast-conserving surgery.

PubMed

Tommasino, Francesco; Durante, Marco; D'Avino, Vittoria; Liuzzi, Raffaele; Conson, Manuel; Farace, Paolo; Palma, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Marco; Cella, Laura; Pacelli, Roberto

2017-05-01

Proton beam therapy represents a promising modality for left-side breast cancer (BC) treatment, but concerns have been raised about skin toxicity and poor cosmesis. The aim of this study is to apply skin normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) optimization in left-side BC. Ten left-side BC patients undergoing photon irradiation after breast-conserving surgery were randomly selected from our clinical database. Intensity modulated photon (IMRT) and IMPT plans were calculated with iso-tumor-coverage criteria and according to RTOG 1005 guidelines. Proton plans were computed with and without skin optimization. Published NTCP models were employed to estimate the risk of different toxicity endpoints for skin, lung, heart and its substructures. Acute skin NTCP evaluation suggests a lower toxicity level with IMPT compared to IMRT when the skin is included in proton optimization strategy (0.1% versus 1.7%, p < 0.001). Dosimetric results show that, with the same level of tumor coverage, IMPT attains significant heart and lung dose sparing compared with IMRT. By NTCP model-based analysis, an overall reduction in the cardiopulmonary toxicity risk prediction can be observed for all IMPT compared to IMRT plans: the relative risk reduction from protons varies between 0.1 and 0.7 depending on the considered toxicity endpoint. Our analysis suggests that IMPT might be safely applied without increasing the risk of severe acute radiation induced skin toxicity. The quantitative risk estimates also support the potential clinical benefits of IMPT for left-side BC irradiation due to lower risk of cardiac and pulmonary morbidity. The applied approach might be relevant on the long term for the setup of cost-effectiveness evaluation strategies based on NTCP predictions.

Conservative care as a treatment option for patients aged 75 years and older with CKD stage V: a National survey in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Susanto, Christopher; Kooman, J; Courtens, A M; Konings, C J A M

2018-01-01

Conservative care for patients aged 75 years and older with CKD stage 5 as a treatment option besides dialysis was proposed officially in the Netherlands in October 2016. This national survey showed the current implementation of this option in Netherlands nephrology departments. A web-based survey was sent to medical managers of 60 nephrology departments in the Netherlands in August 2016. Twenty-one medical managers (35%) completed the survey. The term "conservative care" is frequently used and well known. The estimated number of patients in whom the decision for maximal conservative care was made in 2015 was 310 of 2249 patients with CKD stage 5 age 75 years and older (range 5-50 patients per department). 164 patients became symptomatic and received no dialysis. There is no official registration for this treatment option and patient category. The practice patterns vary widely. Only one of 21 respondents reported a conservative care outpatient clinic. Formal training or education regarding conservative care is not available in most of departments. 95% of respondents discussed this treatment option with their patients. General practitioners are always being informed about their patient's decision. Their main role is providing or organizing palliative care support at the end of life and discussing advance care planning. Most respondents (86%) considered to include their patients in a prospective multicentre observational study, conservative care versus dialysis. Conservative care as a treatment option for patients with CKD stage 5 aged 75 years and older is well established. The practice patterns are varied in the Netherlands. Follow-up studies are needed to see whether the new multidisciplinary guideline facilitates harmonization of practice pattern. Funding is needed to optimize the implementation of conservative care.

Estimating relative demand for wildlife: Conservation activity indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, Gary G.; Larson, Joseph S.

1982-09-01

An alternative method of estimating relative demand among nonconsumptive uses of wildlife and among wildlife species is proposed. A demand intensity score (DIS), derived from the relative extent of an individual's involvement in outdoor recreation and conservation activities, is used as a weighting device to adjust the importance of preference rankings for wildlife uses and wildlife species relative to other members of a survey population. These adjusted preference rankings were considered to reflect relative demand levels (RDLs) for wildlife uses and for species by the survey population. This technique may be useful where it is not possible or desirable to estimate demand using traditional economic means. In one of the findings from a survey of municipal conservation commission members in Massachusetts, presented as an illustration of this methodology, poisonous snakes were ranked third in preference among five groups of reptiles. The relative demand level for poisonous snakes, however, was last among the five groups.

Managing American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) population qrowth by targeting nesting season vital rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felton, Shilo K.; Hostetter, Nathan J.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2017-01-01

In populations of long-lived species, adult survival typically has a relatively high influence on population growth. From a management perspective, however, adult survival can be difficult to increase in some instances, so other component rates must be considered to reverse population declines. In North Carolina, USA, management to conserve the American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) targets component vital rates related to fecundity, specifically nest and chick survival. The effectiveness of such a management approach in North Carolina was assessed by creating a three-stage female-based deterministic matrix model. Isoclines were produced from the matrix model to evaluate minimum nest and chick survival rates necessary to reverse population decline, assuming all other vital rates remained stable at mean values. Assuming accurate vital rates, breeding populations within North Carolina appear to be declining. To reverse this decline, combined nest and chick survival would need to increase from 0.14 to ≤ 0.27, a rate that appears to be attainable based on historical estimates. Results are heavily dependent on assumptions of other vital rates, most notably adult survival, revealing the need for accurate estimates of all vital rates to inform management actions. This approach provides valuable insights for evaluating conservation goals for species of concern.

Improving Simulated Soil Moisture Fields Through Assimilation of AMSR-E Soil Moisture Retrievals with an Ensemble Kalman Filter and a Mass Conservation Constraint

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Bailing; Toll, David; Zhan, Xiwu; Cosgrove, Brian

2011-01-01

Model simulated soil moisture fields are often biased due to errors in input parameters and deficiencies in model physics. Satellite derived soil moisture estimates, if retrieved appropriately, represent the spatial mean of soil moisture in a footprint area, and can be used to reduce model bias (at locations near the surface) through data assimilation techniques. While assimilating the retrievals can reduce model bias, it can also destroy the mass balance enforced by the model governing equation because water is removed from or added to the soil by the assimilation algorithm. In addition, studies have shown that assimilation of surface observations can adversely impact soil moisture estimates in the lower soil layers due to imperfect model physics, even though the bias near the surface is decreased. In this study, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a mass conservation updating scheme was developed to assimilate the actual value of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals to improve the mean of simulated soil moisture fields by the Noah land surface model. Assimilation results using the conventional and the mass conservation updating scheme in the Little Washita watershed of Oklahoma showed that, while both updating schemes reduced the bias in the shallow root zone, the mass conservation scheme provided better estimates in the deeper profile. The mass conservation scheme also yielded physically consistent estimates of fluxes and maintained the water budget. Impacts of model physics on the assimilation results are discussed.

The problem of the second wind turbine - a note on a common but flawed wind power estimation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gans, F.; Miller, L. M.; Kleidon, A.

2010-06-01

Several recent wind power estimates suggest how this renewable resource can meet all of the current and future global energy demand with little impact on the atmosphere. These estimates are calculated using observed wind speeds in combination with specifications of wind turbine size and density to quantify the extractable wind power. Here we show that this common methodology is flawed because it does not account for energy removal by the turbines that is necessary to ensure the conservation of energy. We will first illustrate the common but flawed methodology using parameters from a recent global quantification of wind power in a simple experimental setup. For a small number of turbines at small scales, the conservation of energy hardly results in a difference when compared to the common method. However, when applied at large to global scales, the ability of radiative gradients to generate a finite amount of kinetic energy needs to be taken into account. Using the same experimental setup, we use the simplest method to ensure the conservation of energy to show a non-negligble decrease in wind velocity after the first turbine that will successively result in lower extraction of the downwind turbines. We then show how the conservation of energy inevitably results in substantially lower estimates of wind power at the global scale. Because conservation of energy is fundamental, we conclude that ultimately environmental constraints set the upper limit for wind power availability at the larger scale rather than detailed engineering specifications of the wind turbine design and placement.

A Novel Finite-Sum Inequality-Based Method for Robust H∞ Control of Uncertain Discrete-Time Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Systems With Interval-Like Time-Varying Delays.

PubMed

Zhang, Xian-Ming; Han, Qing-Long; Ge, Xiaohua

2017-09-22

This paper is concerned with the problem of robust H∞ control of an uncertain discrete-time Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system with an interval-like time-varying delay. A novel finite-sum inequality-based method is proposed to provide a tighter estimation on the forward difference of certain Lyapunov functional, leading to a less conservative result. First, an auxiliary vector function is used to establish two finite-sum inequalities, which can produce tighter bounds for the finite-sum terms appearing in the forward difference of the Lyapunov functional. Second, a matrix-based quadratic convex approach is employed to equivalently convert the original matrix inequality including a quadratic polynomial on the time-varying delay into two boundary matrix inequalities, which delivers a less conservative bounded real lemma (BRL) for the resultant closed-loop system. Third, based on the BRL, a novel sufficient condition on the existence of suitable robust H∞ fuzzy controllers is derived. Finally, two numerical examples and a computer-simulated truck-trailer system are provided to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

PubMed Central

Curtis, Caroline A.; Bradley, Bethany A.

2016-01-01

Background Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance. Methods We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the ‘plant characteristics’ information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF) and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN), and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size. Results Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001). The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation. Conclusion Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts’ knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for widespread forbs and grasses. These findings suggest that widely available expert-based climatic tolerance estimates underrepresent species’ fundamental niche and likely fail to capture the realized niche. PMID:27870859

Estimation of within-stratum variance for sample allocation: Foreign commodity production forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chhikara, R. S.; Perry, C. R., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The problem of determining the stratum variances required for an optimum sample allocation for remotely sensed crop surveys is investigated with emphasis on an approach based on the concept of stratum variance as a function of the sampling unit size. A methodology using the existing and easily available information of historical statistics is developed for obtaining initial estimates of stratum variances. The procedure is applied to variance for wheat in the U.S. Great Plains and is evaluated based on the numerical results obtained. It is shown that the proposed technique is viable and performs satisfactorily with the use of a conservative value (smaller than the expected value) for the field size and with the use of crop statistics from the small political division level.

Failure Assessment of Stainless Steel and Titanium Brazed Joints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flom, Yury A.

2012-01-01

Following successful application of Coulomb-Mohr and interaction equations for evaluation of safety margins in Albemet 162 brazed joints, two additional base metal/filler metal systems were investigated. Specimens consisting of stainless steel brazed with silver-base filler metal and titanium brazed with 1100 Al alloy were tested to failure under combined action of tensile, shear, bending and torsion loads. Finite Element Analysis (FEA), hand calculations and digital image comparison (DIC) techniques were used to estimate failure stresses and construct Failure Assessment Diagrams (FAD). This study confirms that interaction equation R(sub sigma) + R(sub tau) = 1, where R(sub sigma) and R(sub t u) are normal and shear stress ratios, can be used as conservative lower bound estimate of the failure criterion in stainless steel and titanium brazed joints.

Mathematical model of cycad cones' thermogenic temperature responses: inverse calorimetry to estimate metabolic heating rates.

PubMed

Roemer, R B; Booth, D; Bhavsar, A A; Walter, G H; Terry, L I

2012-12-21

A mathematical model based on conservation of energy has been developed and used to simulate the temperature responses of cones of the Australian cycads Macrozamia lucida and Macrozamia. macleayi during their daily thermogenic cycle. These cones generate diel midday thermogenic temperature increases as large as 12 °C above ambient during their approximately two week pollination period. The cone temperature response model is shown to accurately predict the cones' temperatures over multiple days as based on simulations of experimental results from 28 thermogenic events from 3 different cones, each simulated for either 9 or 10 sequential days. The verified model is then used as the foundation of a new, parameter estimation based technique (termed inverse calorimetry) that estimates the cones' daily metabolic heating rates from temperature measurements alone. The inverse calorimetry technique's predictions of the major features of the cones' thermogenic metabolism compare favorably with the estimates from conventional respirometry (indirect calorimetry). Because the new technique uses only temperature measurements, and does not require measurements of oxygen consumption, it provides a simple, inexpensive and portable complement to conventional respirometry for estimating metabolic heating rates. It thus provides an additional tool to facilitate field and laboratory investigations of the bio-physics of thermogenic plants. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FY 17 Q1 Commercial integrated heat pump with thermal storage milestone report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abu-Heiba, Ahmad; Baxter, Van D.; Shen, Bo

2017-01-01

The commercial integrated heat pump with thermal storage (AS-IHP) offers significant energy saving over a baseline heat pump with electric water heater. The saving potential is maximized when the AS-IHP serves coincident high water heating and high space cooling demands. A previous energy performance analysis showed that the AS-IHP provides the highest benefit in the hot-humid and hot-dry/mixed dry climate regions. Analysis of technical potential energy savings for these climate zones based on the BTO Market calculator indicated that the following commercial building market segments had the highest water heating loads relative to space cooling and heating loads education, foodmore » service, health care, lodging, and mercantile/service. In this study, we focused on these building types to conservatively estimate the market potential of the AS-IHP. Our analysis estimates maximum annual shipments of ~522,000 units assuming 100% of the total market is captured. An early replacement market based on replacement of systems in target buildings between 15 and 35 years old was estimated at ~136,000 units. Technical potential energy savings are estimated at ~0.27 quad based on the maximum market estimate, equivalent to ~13.9 MM Ton CO2 emissions reduction.« less

A Ratio of Spore to Viable Organisms: A Case Study of the JPL-SAF Cleanroom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendrickson, Ryan; Urbaniak, Camilla; Malli Mohan, Ganesh Babu; Aronson, Heidi; Venkateswaran, Kasthuri

2017-01-01

Spacecraft surfaces that are destined to land on potential life-harboring celestial bodies are required to be rigorously cleaned and continuously monitored for spore bioburden as a proxy for spacecraft cleanliness. The NASA standard assay (NSA), used for spacecraft bioburden estimates, specifically measures spores that are cultivable, aerobic, resistant to heat shock, and grow at 30 C in a nutrient-rich medium. Since the vast majority of microorganisms cannot be cultivated using the NSA, it is necessary to utilize state-of-the art molecular techniques to better understand the presence of all viable microorganisms, not just those measured with the NSA. In this study, the nutrient-deprived low biomass cleanrooms, where spacecraft are assembled, were used as a surrogate for spacecraft surfaces to measure the ratio of NSA spores in relation to the total viable microorganism population in order to make comparisons with the 2006 Space Studies Board (SSB) estimate of 1 spore per approximately 50,000 viable organisms. Ninety-eight surface wipe samples were collected from the Spacecraft Assembly Facility (SAF) cleanroom at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) over a 6-month period. The samples were processed and analyzed using classical microbiology along with molecular methodology. Traditional microbiology plating methods were used to determine the cultivable bacterial, fungal, and spore populations. Molecular assays were used to determine the total organisms (TO, dead and live) and the viable organisms (VO, live). The TO was measured using adenosine triphosphate (ATP) and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays. The VO was measured using internal ATP, propidium monoazide (PMA)-qPCR, and flow cytometry (after staining for viable microorganisms) assays. Based on the results, it was possible to establish a ratio between spore counts and VO for each viability assay. The ATP-based spore to VO ratio ranged from 149-746, and the bacterial PMA-qPCR assay-based ratio ranged from 314-1,491 VO, per spore. The most conservative estimate came from fluorescent-assisted cell sorting (FACS), which estimated the ratio to be 12,091 VO per 1 NSA spore. Since archaeal (less than 1%) and fungal (approximately 2%) populations were negligible, the spore to VO ratios were based on bacterial population estimates. The most conservative ratio from this study can be used as a replacement for the SSB estimate on nutrient-deprived (oligotrophic) desiccated spacecraft surfaces, to estimate the VO from NSA measurements without utilizing state-of-the art molecular methods that are costly and require more biomass than is typically found on spacecraft surfaces.

An evaluation of potential sampling locations in a reservoir with emphasis on conserved spatial correlation structure.

PubMed

Yenilmez, Firdes; Düzgün, Sebnem; Aksoy, Aysegül

2015-01-01

In this study, kernel density estimation (KDE) was coupled with ordinary two-dimensional kriging (OK) to reduce the number of sampling locations in measurement and kriging of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in Porsuk Dam Reservoir (PDR). Conservation of the spatial correlation structure in the DO distribution was a target. KDE was used as a tool to aid in identification of the sampling locations that would be removed from the sampling network in order to decrease the total number of samples. Accordingly, several networks were generated in which sampling locations were reduced from 65 to 10 in increments of 4 or 5 points at a time based on kernel density maps. DO variograms were constructed, and DO values in PDR were kriged. Performance of the networks in DO estimations were evaluated through various error metrics, standard error maps (SEM), and whether the spatial correlation structure was conserved or not. Results indicated that smaller number of sampling points resulted in loss of information in regard to spatial correlation structure in DO. The minimum representative sampling points for PDR was 35. Efficacy of the sampling location selection method was tested against the networks generated by experts. It was shown that the evaluation approach proposed in this study provided a better sampling network design in which the spatial correlation structure of DO was sustained for kriging.

Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package. PMID:29107980

A marketing approach to carpool demand analysis. Technical memorandum IV. Evaluation of model impact estimates. Conservation paper. [Commuter survey in 3 major urban areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1976-07-01

The memorandum explains and details the evaluation procedures and their application in assessing the various policies examined in connection with a research effort examining the role of individuals attitudes and perceptions in deciding whether or not to carpool. The research was based upon a survey of commuters in three major urban areas and has resulted in a sizeable new data base on respondents' socioeconomic and worktrip characteristics, travel perceptions and travel perferences.

Estimating rates of local species extinction, colonization and turnover in animal communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Boulinier, T.; Hines, J.E.; Pollock, K.H.; Sauer, J.R.

1998-01-01

Species richness has been identified as a useful state variable for conservation and management purposes. Changes in richness over time provide a basis for predicting and evaluating community responses to management, to natural disturbance, and to changes in factors such as community composition (e.g., the removal of a keystone species). Probabilistic capture-recapture models have been used recently to estimate species richness from species count and presence-absence data. These models do not require the common assumption that all species are detected in sampling efforts. We extend this approach to the development of estimators useful for studying the vital rates responsible for changes in animal communities over time; rates of local species extinction, turnover, and colonization. Our approach to estimation is based on capture-recapture models for closed animal populations that permit heterogeneity in detection probabilities among the different species in the sampled community. We have developed a computer program, COMDYN, to compute many of these estimators and associated bootstrap variances. Analyses using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) suggested that the estimators performed reasonably well. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modeling for future work on community responses to management efforts as well as on basic questions about community dynamics.

Estimating impacts of plantation forestry on plant biodiversity in southern Chile-a spatially explicit modelling approach.

PubMed

Braun, Andreas Christian; Koch, Barbara

2016-10-01

Monitoring the impacts of land-use practices is of particular importance with regard to biodiversity hotspots in developing countries. Here, conserving the high level of unique biodiversity is challenged by limited possibilities for data collection on site. Especially for such scenarios, assisting biodiversity assessments by remote sensing has proven useful. Remote sensing techniques can be applied to interpolate between biodiversity assessments taken in situ. Through this approach, estimates of biodiversity for entire landscapes can be produced, relating land-use intensity to biodiversity conditions. Such maps are a valuable basis for developing biodiversity conservation plans. Several approaches have been published so far to interpolate local biodiversity assessments in remote sensing data. In the following, a new approach is proposed. Instead of inferring biodiversity using environmental variables or the variability of spectral values, a hypothesis-based approach is applied. Empirical knowledge about biodiversity in relation to land-use is formalized and applied as ascription rules for image data. The method is exemplified for a large study site (over 67,000 km(2)) in central Chile, where forest industry heavily impacts plant diversity. The proposed approach yields a coefficient of correlation of 0.73 and produces a convincing estimate of regional biodiversity. The framework is broad enough to be applied to other study sites.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Chanyoung; Kim, Nam H.

Structural elements, such as stiffened panels and lap joints, are basic components of aircraft structures. For aircraft structural design, designers select predesigned elements satisfying the design load requirement based on their load-carrying capabilities. Therefore, estimation of safety envelope of structural elements for load tolerances would be a good investment for design purpose. In this article, a method of estimating safety envelope is presented using probabilistic classification, which can estimate a specific level of failure probability under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An important contribution of this article is that the calculation uncertainty is reflected in building a safety envelope usingmore » Gaussian process, and the effect of element test data on reducing the calculation uncertainty is incorporated by updating the Gaussian process model with the element test data. It is shown that even one element test can significantly reduce the calculation uncertainty due to lacking knowledge of actual physics, so that conservativeness in a safety envelope is significantly reduced. The proposed approach was demonstrated with a cantilever beam example, which represents a structural element. The example shows that calculation uncertainty provides about 93% conservativeness against the uncertainty due to a few element tests. As a result, it is shown that even a single element test can increase the load tolerance modeled with the safety envelope by 20%.« less

Molecular taxonomy, phylogeny and evolution in the family Stichopodidae (Aspidochirotida: Holothuroidea) based on COI and 16S mitochondrial DNA.

PubMed

Byrne, Maria; Rowe, Frank; Uthicke, Sven

2010-09-01

The Stichopodidae comprise a diverse assemblage of holothuroids most of which occur in the Indo-Pacific. Phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial gene (COI, 16S rRNA) sequence for 111 individuals (7 genera, 17 species) clarified taxonomic uncertainties, species relationships, biogeography and evolution of the family. A monophyly of the genus Stichopus was supported with the exception of Stichopus ellipes. Molecular analyses confirmed genus level taxonomy based on morphology. Most specimens harvested as S. horrens fell in the S. monotuberculatus clade, a morphologically variable assemblage with others from the S. naso clade. Taxonomic clarification of species fished as S. horrens will assist conservation measures. Evolutionary rates based on comparison of sequence from trans-ithmian Isostichopus species estimated that Stichopus and Isostichopus diverged ca. 5.5-10.7Ma (Miocene). More recent splits were estimated to be younger than 1Ma. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of mammal reproduction for hunting sustainability through community-based sampling of species in the wild.

PubMed

Mayor, Pedro; El Bizri, Hani; Bodmer, Richard E; Bowler, Mark

2017-08-01

Wildlife subsistence hunting is a major source of protein for tropical rural populations and a prominent conservation issue. The intrinsic rate of natural increase. (r max ) of populations is a key reproductive parameter in the most used assessments of hunting sustainability. However, researchers face severe difficulties in obtaining reproductive data in the wild, so these assessments often rely on classic reproductive rates calculated mostly from studies of captive animals conducted 30 years ago. The result is a flaw in almost 50% of studies, which hampers management decision making. We conducted a 15-year study in the Amazon in which we used reproductive data from the genitalia of 950 hunted female mammals. Genitalia were collected by local hunters. We examined tissue from these samples to estimate birthrates for wild populations of the 10 most hunted mammals. We compared our estimates with classic measures and considered the utility of the use of r max in sustainability assessments. For woolly monkey (Lagothrix poeppigii) and tapir (Tapirus terrestris), wild birthrates were similar to those from captive populations, whereas birthrates for other ungulates and lowland-paca (Cuniculus paca) were significantly lower than previous estimates. Conversely, for capuchin monkeys (Sapajus macrocephalus), agoutis (Dasyprocta sp.), and coatis (Nasua nasua), our calculated reproductive rates greatly exceeded often-used values. Researchers could keep applying classic measures compatible with our estimates, but for other species previous estimates of r max may not be appropriate. We suggest that data from local studies be used to set hunting quotas. Our maximum rates of population growth in the wild correlated with body weight, which suggests that our method is consistent and reliable. Integration of this method into community-based wildlife management and the training of local hunters to record pregnancies in hunted animals could efficiently generate useful information of life histories of wild species and thus improve management of natural resources. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

An index approach to performance-based payments for water quality.

PubMed

Maille, Peter; Collins, Alan R

2012-05-30

In this paper we describe elements of a field research project that presented farmers with economic incentives to control nitrate runoff. The approach used is novel in that payments are based on ambient water quality and water quantity produced by a watershed rather than proxies for water quality conservation. Also, payments are made based on water quality relative to a control watershed, and therefore, account for stochastic fluctuations in background nitrate levels. Finally, the program pays farmers as a group to elicit team behavior. We present our approach to modeling that allowed us to estimate prices for water and resulting payment levels. We then compare these preliminary estimates to the actual values recorded over 33 months of fieldwork. We find that our actual payments were 29% less than our preliminary estimates, due in part to the failure of our ecological model to estimate discharge accurately. Despite this shortfall, the program attracted the participation of 53% of the farmers in the watershed, and resulted in substantial nitrate abatement activity. Given this favorable response, we propose that research efforts focus on implementing field trials of group-level performance-based payments. Ideally these programs would be low risk and control for naturally occurring contamination. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transaction costs economics of irreplaceability: ex ante and ex post evaluation of conservation networks' vulnerability to environmental shocks.

PubMed

Huusom, Henrik; Strange, Niels

2008-04-01

The theoretical concept, "asset specificity," is applied to real data in the context of Danish nature conservation network planning in order to produce illustrative examples of an economic measure of the network's vulnerability to exogenous shocks to the species composition. Three different measures of asset specificity are quantified from the shadow value of eliminating a key species from the individual grid cells. This represents a novel approach and a different interpretation of the term, as it is conventionally used as a qualitative indicator in the transaction cost economics literature. Apart from supplementing existing cost measures with an indicator of risk associated with investments in protected areas, this study demonstrates how the estimation and interpretation of various asset specificity measures for geographical areas may qualify policy makers' choice of policy instrument in conservation planning. This differs from the more intuitive approach of basing policy instrument choice solely on the rarity of the species in a given area.

Drops of energy: conserving urban water to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

Zhou, Yuanchun; Zhang, Bing; Wang, Haikun; Bi, Jun

2013-10-01

Water and energy are two essential resources of modern civilization and are inherently linked. Indeed, the optimization of the water supply system would reduce energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions in the municipal water sector. This research measured the climatic cobenefit of water conservation based on a water flow analysis. The results showed that the estimated energy consumption of the total water system in Changzhou, China, reached approximately 10% of the city's total energy consumption, whereas the industrial sector was found to be more energy intensive than other sectors within the entire water system, accounting for nearly 70% of the total energy use of the water system. In addition, four sustainable water management scenarios would bring the cobenefit of reducing the total energy use of the water system by 13.9%, and 77% of the energy savings through water conservation was indirect. To promote sustainable water management and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China would require its water price system, both for freshwater and recycled water, to be reformed.

Conservation laws with coinciding smooth solutions but different conserved variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombo, Rinaldo M.; Guerra, Graziano

2018-04-01

Consider two hyperbolic systems of conservation laws in one space dimension with the same eigenvalues and (right) eigenvectors. We prove that solutions to Cauchy problems with the same initial data differ at third order in the total variation of the initial datum. As a first application, relying on the classical Glimm-Lax result (Glimm and Lax in Decay of solutions of systems of nonlinear hyperbolic conservation laws. Memoirs of the American Mathematical Society, No. 101. American Mathematical Society, Providence, 1970), we obtain estimates improving those in Saint-Raymond (Arch Ration Mech Anal 155(3):171-199, 2000) on the distance between solutions to the isentropic and non-isentropic inviscid compressible Euler equations, under general equations of state. Further applications are to the general scalar case, where rather precise estimates are obtained, to an approximation by Di Perna of the p-system and to a traffic model.

How effective are biodiversity conservation payments in Mexico?

PubMed

Costedoat, Sébastien; Corbera, Esteve; Ezzine-de-Blas, Driss; Honey-Rosés, Jordi; Baylis, Kathy; Castillo-Santiago, Miguel Angel

2015-01-01

We assess the additional forest cover protected by 13 rural communities located in the southern state of Chiapas, Mexico, as a result of the economic incentives received through the country's national program of payments for biodiversity conservation. We use spatially explicit data at the intra-community level to define a credible counterfactual of conservation outcomes. We use covariate-matching specifications associated with spatially explicit variables and difference-in-difference estimators to determine the treatment effect. We estimate that the additional conservation represents between 12 and 14.7 percent of forest area enrolled in the program in comparison to control areas. Despite this high degree of additionality, we also observe lack of compliance in some plots participating in the PES program. This lack of compliance casts doubt on the ability of payments alone to guarantee long-term additionality in context of high deforestation rates, even with an augmented program budget or extension of participation to communities not yet enrolled.

Introduction of risk size in the determination of uncertainty factor UFL in risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Jinling; Lu, Yun; Velasquez, Natalia; Yu, Ruozhen; Hu, Hongying; Liu, Zhengtao; Meng, Wei

2012-09-01

The methodology for using uncertainty factors in health risk assessment has been developed for several decades. A default value is usually applied for the uncertainty factor UFL, which is used to extrapolate from LOAEL (lowest observed adverse effect level) to NAEL (no adverse effect level). Here, we have developed a new method that establishes a linear relationship between UFL and the additional risk level at LOAEL based on the dose-response information, which represents a very important factor that should be carefully considered. This linear formula makes it possible to select UFL properly in the additional risk range from 5.3% to 16.2%. Also the results remind us that the default value 10 may not be conservative enough when the additional risk level at LOAEL exceeds 16.2%. Furthermore, this novel method not only provides a flexible UFL instead of the traditional default value, but also can ensure a conservative estimation of the UFL with fewer errors, and avoid the benchmark response selection involved in the benchmark dose method. These advantages can improve the estimation of the extrapolation starting point in the risk assessment.

Walk on the wild side: estimating the global magnitude of visits to protected areas.

PubMed

Balmford, Andrew; Green, Jonathan M H; Anderson, Michael; Beresford, James; Huang, Charles; Naidoo, Robin; Walpole, Matt; Manica, Andrea

2015-02-01

How often do people visit the world's protected areas (PAs)? Despite PAs covering one-eighth of the land and being a major focus of nature-based recreation and tourism, we don't know. To address this, we compiled a globally-representative database of visits to PAs and built region-specific models predicting visit rates from PA size, local population size, remoteness, natural attractiveness, and national income. Applying these models to all but the very smallest of the world's terrestrial PAs suggests that together they receive roughly 8 billion (8 x 109) visits/y-of which more than 80% are in Europe and North America. Linking our region-specific visit estimates to valuation studies indicates that these visits generate approximately US $600 billion/y in direct in-country expenditure and US $250 billion/y in consumer surplus. These figures dwarf current, typically inadequate spending on conserving PAs. Thus, even without considering the many other ecosystem services that PAs provide to people, our findings underscore calls for greatly increased investment in their conservation.

Walk on the Wild Side: Estimating the Global Magnitude of Visits to Protected Areas

PubMed Central

Balmford, Andrew; Green, Jonathan M. H.; Anderson, Michael; Beresford, James; Huang, Charles; Naidoo, Robin; Walpole, Matt; Manica, Andrea

2015-01-01

How often do people visit the world’s protected areas (PAs)? Despite PAs covering one-eighth of the land and being a major focus of nature-based recreation and tourism, we don’t know. To address this, we compiled a globally-representative database of visits to PAs and built region-specific models predicting visit rates from PA size, local population size, remoteness, natural attractiveness, and national income. Applying these models to all but the very smallest of the world’s terrestrial PAs suggests that together they receive roughly 8 billion (8 x 109) visits/y—of which more than 80% are in Europe and North America. Linking our region-specific visit estimates to valuation studies indicates that these visits generate approximately US $600 billion/y in direct in-country expenditure and US $250 billion/y in consumer surplus. These figures dwarf current, typically inadequate spending on conserving PAs. Thus, even without considering the many other ecosystem services that PAs provide to people, our findings underscore calls for greatly increased investment in their conservation. PMID:25710450

Patterns and determinants of mammal species occurrence in India

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Karanth, K.U.; Christensen, N.L.

2009-01-01

Many Indian mammals face range contraction and extinction, but assessments of their population status are hindered by the lack of reliable distribution data and range maps. 2. We estimated the current geographical ranges of 20 species of large mammals by applying occupancy models to data from country-wide expert. We modelled species in relation to ecological and social covariates (protected areas, landscape characteristics and human influences) based on a priori hypotheses about plausible determinants of mammalian distribution patterns. 3. We demonstrated that failure to incorporate detection probability in distribution survey methods underestimated habitat occupancy for all species. 4. Protected areas were important for the distribution of 16 species. However, for many species much of their current range remains unprotected. The availability of evergreen forests was important for the occurrence of 14 species, temperate forests for six species, deciduous forests for 15 species and higher altitude habitats for two species. Low human population density was critical for the occurrence of five species, while culturally based tolerance was important for the occurrence of nine other species. 5. Rhino Rhinoceros unicornis, gaur Bos gaurus and elephant Elephas maximus showed the most restricted ranges among herbivores, and sun bear Helarctos malayanus, brown bear Ursus arctos and tiger Panthera tigris were most restricted among carnivores. While cultural tolerance has helped the survival of some mammals, legal protection has been critically associated with occurrence of most species. 6. Synthesis and applications. Extent of range is an important determinant of species conservation status. Understanding the relationship of species occurrence with ecological and socio-cultural covariates is important for identification and management of key conservation areas. The combination of occupancy models with field data from country-wide experts enables reliable estimation of species range and habitat associations for conservation at regional scales. ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

Quantifying the conservation gains from shared access to linear infrastructure.

PubMed

Runge, Claire A; Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Gordon, Ascelin; Rhodes, Jonathan R

2017-12-01

The proliferation of linear infrastructure such as roads and railways is a major global driver of cumulative biodiversity loss. One strategy for reducing habitat loss associated with development is to encourage linear infrastructure providers and users to share infrastructure networks. We quantified the reductions in biodiversity impact and capital costs under linear infrastructure sharing of a range of potential mine to port transportation links for 47 mine locations operated by 28 separate companies in the Upper Spencer Gulf Region of South Australia. We mapped transport links based on least-cost pathways for different levels of linear-infrastructure sharing and used expert-elicited impacts of linear infrastructure to estimate the consequences for biodiversity. Capital costs were calculated based on estimates of construction costs, compensation payments, and transaction costs. We evaluated proposed mine-port links by comparing biodiversity impacts and capital costs across 3 scenarios: an independent scenario, where no infrastructure is shared; a restricted-access scenario, where the largest mining companies share infrastructure but exclude smaller mining companies from sharing; and a shared scenario where all mining companies share linear infrastructure. Fully shared development of linear infrastructure reduced overall biodiversity impacts by 76% and reduced capital costs by 64% compared with the independent scenario. However, there was considerable variation among companies. Our restricted-access scenario showed only modest biodiversity benefits relative to the independent scenario, indicating that reductions are likely to be limited if the dominant mining companies restrict access to infrastructure, which often occurs without policies that promote sharing of infrastructure. Our research helps illuminate the circumstances under which infrastructure sharing can minimize the biodiversity impacts of development. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

What's it worth to you? Estimating the public's willingness to pay for biodiversity conservation.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2005-01-01

Conserving biodiversity in the Oregon Coast Range requires tradeoffs. Policymakers must consider both the costs and benefits of new conservation programs. During this appraisal process, the costs, in terms of economic activity forgone, are often easier to quantify than the benefits. We all know that biodiversity is valuable, but how does its value compare to other...

Managing watersheds to change water quality: lessons learned from the NIFA-CEAP watershed studies

Treesearch

Deanna Osmond; M. Arabi; D. Hoag; G. Jennings; D. Line; A. Luloff; M. McFarland; D. Meals; A. Sharpley

2016-01-01

The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) is an USDA initiative that involves the Agricultural Research Service, the National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), and the Natural Resources Conservation Service. The overall goal of CEAP is to provide scientifically credible estimates of the environmental benefits obtained from USDA conservation programs...

Parallel tagged next-generation sequencing on pooled samples - a new approach for population genetics in ecology and conservation.

PubMed

Zavodna, Monika; Grueber, Catherine E; Gemmell, Neil J

2013-01-01

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) on pooled samples has already been broadly applied in human medical diagnostics and plant and animal breeding. However, thus far it has been only sparingly employed in ecology and conservation, where it may serve as a useful diagnostic tool for rapid assessment of species genetic diversity and structure at the population level. Here we undertake a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy, practicality and limitations of parallel tagged amplicon NGS on pooled population samples for estimating species population diversity and structure. We obtained 16S and Cyt b data from 20 populations of Leiopelma hochstetteri, a frog species of conservation concern in New Zealand, using two approaches - parallel tagged NGS on pooled population samples and individual Sanger sequenced samples. Data from each approach were then used to estimate two standard population genetic parameters, nucleotide diversity (π) and population differentiation (FST), that enable population genetic inference in a species conservation context. We found a positive correlation between our two approaches for population genetic estimates, showing that the pooled population NGS approach is a reliable, rapid and appropriate method for population genetic inference in an ecological and conservation context. Our experimental design also allowed us to identify both the strengths and weaknesses of the pooled population NGS approach and outline some guidelines and suggestions that might be considered when planning future projects.

Operationalizing biodiversity for conservation planning.

PubMed

Sarkar, Sahotra; Margules, Chris

2002-07-01

Biodiversity has acquired such a general meaning that people now find it difficult to pin down a precise sense for planning and policy-making aimed at biodiversity conservation. Because biodiversity is rooted in place, the task of conserving biodiversity should target places for conservation action; and because all places contain biodiversity, but not all places can be targeted for action, places have to be prioritized. What is needed for this is a measure of the extent to which biodiversity varies from place to place. We do not need a precise measure of biodiversity to prioritize places. Relative estimates of similarity or difference can be derived using partial measures, or what have come to be called biodiversity surrogates. Biodiversity surrogates are supposed to stand in for general biodiversity in planning applications. We distinguish between true surrogates, those that might truly stand in for general biodiversity, and estimator surrogates, which have true surrogates as their target variable. For example, species richness has traditionally been the estimator surrogate for the true surrogate, species diversity. But species richness does not capture the differences in composition between places; the essence of biodiversity. Another measure, called complementarity, explicitly captures the differences between places as we iterate the process of place prioritization, starting with an initial place. The relative concept of biodiversity built into the definition of complementarity has the level of precision needed to undertake conservation planning.

Predicting Brook Trout occurrence in stream reaches throughout their native range in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell; Wagner, Tyler

2015-01-01

The Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis is an important species of conservation concern in the eastern USA. We developed a model to predict Brook Trout population status within individual stream reaches throughout the species’ native range in the eastern USA. We utilized hierarchical logistic regression with Bayesian estimation to predict Brook Trout occurrence probability, and we allowed slopes and intercepts to vary among ecological drainage units (EDUs). Model performance was similar for 7,327 training samples and 1,832 validation samples based on the area under the receiver operating curve (∼0.78) and Cohen's kappa statistic (0.44). Predicted water temperature had a strong negative effect on Brook Trout occurrence probability at the stream reach scale and was also negatively associated with the EDU average probability of Brook Trout occurrence (i.e., EDU-specific intercepts). The effect of soil permeability was positive but decreased as EDU mean soil permeability increased. Brook Trout were less likely to occur in stream reaches surrounded by agricultural or developed land cover, and an interaction suggested that agricultural land cover also resulted in an increased sensitivity to water temperature. Our model provides a further understanding of how Brook Trout are shaped by habitat characteristics in the region and yields maps of stream-reach-scale predictions, which together can be used to support ongoing conservation and management efforts. These decision support tools can be used to identify the extent of potentially suitable habitat, estimate historic habitat losses, and prioritize conservation efforts by selecting suitable stream reaches for a given action. Future work could extend the model to account for additional landscape or habitat characteristics, include biotic interactions, or estimate potential Brook Trout responses to climate and land use changes.

Estimating the population density of the Asian tapir (Tapirus indicus) in a selectively logged forest in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Rayan, D Mark; Mohamad, Shariff Wan; Dorward, Leejiah; Aziz, Sheema Abdul; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Christopher, Wong Chai Thiam; Traeholt, Carl; Magintan, David

2012-12-01

The endangered Asian tapir (Tapirus indicus) is threatened by large-scale habitat loss, forest fragmentation and increased hunting pressure. Conservation planning for this species, however, is hampered by a severe paucity of information on its ecology and population status. We present the first Asian tapir population density estimate from a camera trapping study targeting tigers in a selectively logged forest within Peninsular Malaysia using a spatially explicit capture-recapture maximum likelihood based framework. With a trap effort of 2496 nights, 17 individuals were identified corresponding to a density (standard error) estimate of 9.49 (2.55) adult tapirs/100 km(2) . Although our results include several caveats, we believe that our density estimate still serves as an important baseline to facilitate the monitoring of tapir population trends in Peninsular Malaysia. Our study also highlights the potential of extracting vital ecological and population information for other cryptic individually identifiable animals from tiger-centric studies, especially with the use of a spatially explicit capture-recapture maximum likelihood based framework. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Impact of orbit modeling on DORIS station position and Earth rotation estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Štěpánek, Petr; Rodriguez-Solano, Carlos Javier; Hugentobler, Urs; Filler, Vratislav

2014-04-01

The high precision of estimated station coordinates and Earth rotation parameters (ERP) obtained from satellite geodetic techniques is based on the precise determination of the satellite orbit. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impact of different orbit parameterizations on the accuracy of station coordinates and the ERPs derived from DORIS observations. In a series of experiments the DORIS data from the complete year 2011 were processed with different orbit model settings. First, the impact of precise modeling of the non-conservative forces on geodetic parameters was compared with results obtained with an empirical-stochastic modeling approach. Second, the temporal spacing of drag scaling parameters was tested. Third, the impact of estimating once-per-revolution harmonic accelerations in cross-track direction was analyzed. And fourth, two different approaches for solar radiation pressure (SRP) handling were compared, namely adjusting SRP scaling parameter or fixing it on pre-defined values. Our analyses confirm that the empirical-stochastic orbit modeling approach, which does not require satellite attitude information and macro models, results for most of the monitored station parameters in comparable accuracy as the dynamical model that employs precise non-conservative force modeling. However, the dynamical orbit model leads to a reduction of the RMS values for the estimated rotation pole coordinates by 17% for x-pole and 12% for y-pole. The experiments show that adjusting atmospheric drag scaling parameters each 30 min is appropriate for DORIS solutions. Moreover, it was shown that the adjustment of cross-track once-per-revolution empirical parameter increases the RMS of the estimated Earth rotation pole coordinates. With recent data it was however not possible to confirm the previously known high annual variation in the estimated geocenter z-translation series as well as its mitigation by fixing the SRP parameters on pre-defined values.

Investigating the Gap Between Estimated and Actual Energy Efficiency and Conservation Savings for Public Buildings Projects & Programs in United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaddus, Muhammad Kamil

The gap between estimated and actual savings in energy efficiency and conservation (EE&C) projects or programs forms the problem statement for the scope of public and government buildings. This gap has been analyzed first on impact and then on process-level. On the impact-level, the methodology leads to categorization of the gap as 'Realization Gap'. It then views the categorization of gap within the context of past and current narratives linked to realization gap. On process-level, the methodology leads to further analysis of realization gap on process evaluation basis. The process evaluation criterion, a product of this basis is then applied to two different programs (DESEU and NYC ACE) linked to the scope of this thesis. Utilizing the synergies of impact and process level analysis, it offers proposals on program development and its structure using our process evaluation criterion. Innovative financing and benefits distribution structure is thus developed and will remain part of the proposal. Restricted Stakeholder Crowd Financing and Risk-Free Incentivized return are the products of proposed financing and benefit distribution structure respectively. These products are then complimented by proposing an alternative approach in estimating EE&C savings. The approach advocates estimation based on range-allocation rather than currently utilized unique estimated savings approach. The Way Ahead section thus explores synergy between financial and engineering ranges of energy savings as a multi-discipline approach for future research. Moreover, it provides the proposed program structure with risk aversion and incentive allocation while dealing with uncertainty. This set of new approaches are believed to better fill the realization gap between estimated and actual energy efficiency savings.

Effective Population Size, Genetic Variation, and Their Relevance for Conservation: The Bighorn Sheep in Tiburon Island and Comparisons with Managed Artiodactyls

PubMed Central

Gasca-Pineda, Jaime; Cassaigne, Ivonne; Alonso, Rogelio A.; Eguiarte, Luis E.

2013-01-01

The amount of genetic diversity in a finite biological population mostly depends on the interactions among evolutionary forces and the effective population size (N e) as well as the time since population establishment. Because the N e estimation helps to explore population demographic history, and allows one to predict the behavior of genetic diversity through time, N e is a key parameter for the genetic management of small and isolated populations. Here, we explored an N e-based approach using a bighorn sheep population on Tiburon Island, Mexico (TI) as a model. We estimated the current (N crnt) and ancestral stable (N stbl) inbreeding effective population sizes as well as summary statistics to assess genetic diversity and the demographic scenarios that could explain such diversity. Then, we evaluated the feasibility of using TI as a source population for reintroduction programs. We also included data from other bighorn sheep and artiodactyl populations in the analysis to compare their inbreeding effective size estimates. The TI population showed high levels of genetic diversity with respect to other managed populations. However, our analysis suggested that TI has been under a genetic bottleneck, indicating that using individuals from this population as the only source for reintroduction could lead to a severe genetic diversity reduction. Analyses of the published data did not show a strict correlation between H E and N crnt estimates. Moreover, we detected that ancient anthropogenic and climatic pressures affected all studied populations. We conclude that the estimation of N crnt and N stbl are informative genetic diversity estimators and should be used in addition to summary statistics for conservation and population management planning. PMID:24147115

Undiagnosed cryptic diversity in small, microendemic frogs (Leptolalax) from the Central Highlands of Vietnam.

PubMed

Rowley, Jodi J L; Tran, Dao T A; Frankham, Greta J; Dekker, Anthony H; Le, Duong T T; Nguyen, Truong Q; Dau, Vinh Q; Hoang, Huy D

2015-01-01

A major obstacle in prioritizing species or habitats for conservation is the degree of unrecognized diversity hidden within complexes of morphologically similar, "cryptic" species. Given that amphibians are one of the most threatened groups of organisms on the planet, our inability to diagnose their true diversity is likely to have significant conservation consequences. This is particularly true in areas undergoing rapid deforestation, such as Southeast Asia. The Southeast Asian genus Leptolalax is a group of small-bodied, morphologically conserved frogs that inhabit the forest-floor. We examined a particularly small-bodied and morphologically conserved subset, the Leptolalax applebyi group, using a combination of molecular, morphometric, and acoustic data to identify previously unknown diversity within. In order to predict the geographic distribution of the group, estimate the effects of habitat loss and assess the degree of habitat protection, we used our locality data to perform ecological niche modelling using MaxEnt. Molecular (mtDNA and nuDNA), acoustic and subtle morphometric differences revealed a significant underestimation of diversity in the L. applebyi group; at least two-thirds of the diversity may be unrecognised. Patterns of diversification and microendemism in the group appear driven by limited dispersal, likely due to their small body size, with several lineages restricted to watershed basins. The L. applebyi group is predicted to have historically occurred over a large area of the Central Highlands of Vietnam, a considerable portion of which has already been deforested. Less than a quarter of the remaining forest predicted to be suitable for the group falls within current protected areas. The predicted distribution of the L. applebyi group extends into unsurveyed watershed basins, each potentially containing unsampled diversity, some of which may have already been lost due to deforestation. Current estimates of amphibian diversity based on morphology alone are misleading, and accurate alpha taxonomy is essential to accurately prioritize conservation efforts.

Undiagnosed Cryptic Diversity in Small, Microendemic Frogs (Leptolalax) from the Central Highlands of Vietnam

PubMed Central

Rowley, Jodi J. L.; Tran, Dao T. A.; Frankham, Greta J.; Dekker, Anthony H.; Le, Duong T. T.; Nguyen, Truong Q.; Dau, Vinh Q.; Hoang, Huy D.

2015-01-01

A major obstacle in prioritizing species or habitats for conservation is the degree of unrecognized diversity hidden within complexes of morphologically similar, “cryptic” species. Given that amphibians are one of the most threatened groups of organisms on the planet, our inability to diagnose their true diversity is likely to have significant conservation consequences. This is particularly true in areas undergoing rapid deforestation, such as Southeast Asia. The Southeast Asian genus Leptolalax is a group of small-bodied, morphologically conserved frogs that inhabit the forest-floor. We examined a particularly small-bodied and morphologically conserved subset, the Leptolalax applebyi group, using a combination of molecular, morphometric, and acoustic data to identify previously unknown diversity within. In order to predict the geographic distribution of the group, estimate the effects of habitat loss and assess the degree of habitat protection, we used our locality data to perform ecological niche modelling using MaxEnt. Molecular (mtDNA and nuDNA), acoustic and subtle morphometric differences revealed a significant underestimation of diversity in the L. applebyi group; at least two-thirds of the diversity may be unrecognised. Patterns of diversification and microendemism in the group appear driven by limited dispersal, likely due to their small body size, with several lineages restricted to watershed basins. The L. applebyi group is predicted to have historically occurred over a large area of the Central Highlands of Vietnam, a considerable portion of which has already been deforested. Less than a quarter of the remaining forest predicted to be suitable for the group falls within current protected areas. The predicted distribution of the L. applebyi group extends into unsurveyed watershed basins, each potentially containing unsampled diversity, some of which may have already been lost due to deforestation. Current estimates of amphibian diversity based on morphology alone are misleading, and accurate alpha taxonomy is essential to accurately prioritize conservation efforts. PMID:26020250

WLCI researchers employ new approaches to help managers conserve deer migrations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Leslie A.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2012-01-01

Elk, mule deer, pronghorn antelope, moose, and bighorn sheep are iconic animals of the American West. These hooved animals, known as ungulates, commonly travel 30–60 miles between seasonal ranges. These migrations between winter and summer ranges are vital for survival and reproduction. As habitat fragmentation continues, the conservation of ungulate migration routes has received considerable attention in the West and across the globe. For example, it is estimated that many ungulate migration routes in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem have already been lost. The traditional migration routes of Wyoming ungulates are threatened by unprecedented levels of energy development and by increasing levels of rural ranchette development (including fences, structures, and roads). In the past, migration corridors have been mapped based primarily on the expert opinions of state game managers, but long-term conservation of Wyoming's ungulate migration routes requires a better understanding of migration ecology and more sophisticated management tools. Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) researchers investigated the migration of a large mule deer herd across the Dad and Wild Horse winter ranges in southwest Wyoming, where 2,000 gas wells and 1,609 kilometers of pipelines and roads have been proposed for development.

Challenges in global ballast water management.

PubMed

Endresen, Øyvind; Lee Behrens, Hanna; Brynestad, Sigrid; Bjørn Andersen, Aage; Skjong, Rolf

2004-04-01

Ballast water management is a complex issue raising the challenge of merging international regulations, ship's specific configurations along with ecological conservation. This complexity is illustrated in this paper by considering ballast water volume, discharge frequency, ship safety and operational issues aligned with regional characteristics to address ecological risk for selected routes. A re-estimation of ballast water volumes gives a global annual level of 3500 Mton. Global ballast water volume discharged into open sea originating from ballast water exchange operations is estimated to approximately 2800 Mton. Risk based decision support systems coupled to databases for different ports and invasive species characteristics and distributions can allow for differentiated treatment levels while maintaining low risk levels. On certain routes, the risk is estimated to be unacceptable and some kind of ballast water treatment or management should be applied.

Energy and Economic Impacts of U.S. Federal Energy and Water Conservation Standards Adopted From 1987 Through 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers, Stephen; Williams, Alison; Chan, Peter

This paper presents estimates of the key impacts of Federal energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2013. The standards for consumer products and commercial and industrial equipment include those set by legislation as well as standards adopted by DOE through rulemaking. In 2013, the standards saved an estimated 4.05 quads of primary energy, which is equivalent to 4% of total U.S. energy consumption. The savings in operating costs for households and businesses totaledmore » $56 billion. The average household saved $$361 in operating costs as a result of residential and plumbing product standards. The estimated reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions associated with the standards in 2013 was 218 million metric tons, which is equivalent to 4% of total U.S. CO{sub 2} emissions. The estimated cumulative energy savings over the period 1990-2090 amount to 181 quads. Accounting for the increased upfront costs of more-efficient products and the operating cost (energy and water) savings over the products’ lifetime, the standards have a past and projected cumulative net present value (NPV) of consumer benefit of between $$1,271 billion and $1,487 billion, using 7 percent and 3 percent discount rates, respectively. The water conservation standards, together with energy conservation standards that also save water, reduced water use by 1.9 trillion gallons in 2013, and will achieve cumulative water savings by 2090 of 55 trillion gallons. The estimated consumer savings in 2013 from reduced water use amounted to $16 billon.« less

Energy and Economic Impacts of U.S. Federal Energy and Water Conservation Standards Adopted From 1987 through 2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers, Stephen; Williams, Alison; Chan, Peter

This paper presents estimates of the key impacts of Federal energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2012. The standards for consumer products and commercial and industrial equipment include those set by legislation as well as standards adopted by DOE through rulemaking. In 2012, the standards saved an estimated 3.6 quads of primary energy, which is equivalent to 3% of total U.S. energy consumption. The savings in operating costs for households and businesses totaled $51.4 billion. The average household saved $347 in operating costs as a result of residential and plumbing product standards. The estimated reduction in CO2more » emissions associated with the standards in 2012 was 198 million metric tons, which is equivalent to 3% of total U.S. CO2 emissions. The estimated cumulative energy savings over the period 1990-2070 amount to 179 quads. Accounting for the increased upfront costs of more-efficient products and the operating cost (energy and water) savings over the products’ lifetime, the standards have a past and projected cumulative net present value (NPV) of consumer benefit of between $1,104 billion and $1,390 billion, using 7 percent and 3 percent discount rates, respectively. The water conservation standards, together with energy conservation standards that also save water, reduced water use by 1.8 trillion gallons in 2012, and will achieve cumulative water savings by 2040 of 54 trillion gallons. The estimated consumer savings in 2012 from reduced water use amounted to $13 billon.« less

Let's jump in: A phylogenetic study of the great basin springfishes and poolfishes, Crenichthys and Empetrichthys (Cyprinodontiformes: Goodeidae)

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

North America’s Great Basin has long been of interest to biologists due to its high level of organismal endemicity throughout its endorheic watersheds. One example of such a group is the subfamily Empetricthyinae. In this paper, we analyzed the relationships of the Empetrichtyinae and assessed the validity of the subspecies designations given by Williams and Wilde within the group using concatenated phylogenetic tree estimation and species tree estimation. Samples from 19 populations were included covering the entire distribution of the three extant species of Empetricthyinae–Crenichthys nevadae, Crenichthys baileyi and Empetricthys latos. Three nuclear introns (S8 intron 4, S7 intron 1, and P0 intron 1) and one mitochondrial gene (Cytb) were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis. Using these sequences, we generated two separate hypotheses of the evolutionary relationships of Empetrichtyinae- one based on the mitochondrial data and one based on the nuclear data using Bayesian phylogenetics. Haplotype networks were also generated to look at the relationships of the populations within Empetrichthyinae. After comparing the two phylogenetic hypotheses, species trees were generated using *BEAST with the nuclear data to further test the validity of the subspecies within Empetrichthyinae. The mitochondrial analyses supported four lineages within C. baileyi and 2 within C. nevadae. The concatenated nuclear tree was more conserved, supporting one clade and an unresolved polytomy in both species. The species tree analysis supported the presence of two species within both C. baileyi and C. nevadae. Based on the results of these analyses, the subspecies designations of Williams and Wilde are not valid, rather a conservative approach suggests there are two species within C. nevadae and two species within C. baileyi. No structure was found for E. latos or the populations of Empetricthyinae. This study represents one of many demonstrating the invalidity of subspecies and their detriment to species identification, conservation, and understanding. PMID:29077708

Genes with minimal phylogenetic information are problematic for coalescent analyses when gene tree estimation is biased.

PubMed

Xi, Zhenxiang; Liu, Liang; Davis, Charles C

2015-11-01

The development and application of coalescent methods are undergoing rapid changes. One little explored area that bears on the application of gene-tree-based coalescent methods to species tree estimation is gene informativeness. Here, we investigate the accuracy of these coalescent methods when genes have minimal phylogenetic information, including the implementation of the multilocus bootstrap approach. Using simulated DNA sequences, we demonstrate that genes with minimal phylogenetic information can produce unreliable gene trees (i.e., high error in gene tree estimation), which may in turn reduce the accuracy of species tree estimation using gene-tree-based coalescent methods. We demonstrate that this problem can be alleviated by sampling more genes, as is commonly done in large-scale phylogenomic analyses. This applies even when these genes are minimally informative. If gene tree estimation is biased, however, gene-tree-based coalescent analyses will produce inconsistent results, which cannot be remedied by increasing the number of genes. In this case, it is not the gene-tree-based coalescent methods that are flawed, but rather the input data (i.e., estimated gene trees). Along these lines, the commonly used program PhyML has a tendency to infer one particular bifurcating topology even though it is best represented as a polytomy. We additionally corroborate these findings by analyzing the 183-locus mammal data set assembled by McCormack et al. (2012) using ultra-conserved elements (UCEs) and flanking DNA. Lastly, we demonstrate that when employing the multilocus bootstrap approach on this 183-locus data set, there is no strong conflict between species trees estimated from concatenation and gene-tree-based coalescent analyses, as has been previously suggested by Gatesy and Springer (2014). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Population estimates and conservation of felids (Carnivora: Felidae) in Northern Quintana Roo, Mexico].

PubMed

Ávila-Nájera, Dulce María; Chávez, Cuauhtémoc; Lazcano-Barrero, Marco A; Pérez-Elizalde, Sergio; Alcántara-Carbajal, José Luis

2015-09-01

Wildlife density estimates provide an idea of the current state of populations, and in some cases, reflect the conservation status of ecosystems, essential aspects for effective management actions. In Mexico, several regions have been identified as high priority areas for the conservation of species that have some level of risk, like the Yucatan Peninsula (YP), where the country has the largest population of jaguars. However, little is known about the current status of threatened and endangered felids, which coexist in the Northeastern portion of the Peninsula. Our objective was to estimate the wild cats' density population over time at El Eden Ecological Reserve (EEER) and its surrounding areas. Camera trap surveys over four years (2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012) were conducted, and data were obtained with the use of capture-recapture models for closed populations (CAPTURE + MMDM or 1/2 MMDM), and the spatially explicit capture-recapture model (SPACECAP). The species studied were jaguar (Panthera onca), puma (Puma concolor), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), jaguarundi (Puma yaguaroundi) and margay (Leopardus wiedii). Capture frequency was obtained for all five species and the density for three (individuals/100km2). The density estimated with The Mean Maximum Distance Moved (MMDM), CAPTURE, ranged from 1.2 to 2.6 for jaguars, from 1.7 to 4.3 for pumas and from 1.4 to 13.8 for ocelots. The density estimates in SPACECAP ranged from 0.7 to 3.6 for jaguars, from 1.8 to 5.2 for pumas and 2.1 to 5.1 for ocelots. Spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) methods in SPACECAP were less likely to overestimate densities, making it a useful tool in the planning and decision making process for the conservation of these species. The Northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula maintains high populations of cats, the EEER and its surrounding areas are valuable sites for the conservation of this group of predators. Rev. Biol.

Estimation of body-size traits by photogrammetry in large mammals to inform conservation.

PubMed

Berger, Joel

2012-10-01

Photography, including remote imagery and camera traps, has contributed substantially to conservation. However, the potential to use photography to understand demography and inform policy is limited. To have practical value, remote assessments must be reasonably accurate and widely deployable. Prior efforts to develop noninvasive methods of estimating trait size have been motivated by a desire to answer evolutionary questions, measure physiological growth, or, in the case of illegal trade, assess economics of horn sizes; but rarely have such methods been directed at conservation. Here I demonstrate a simple, noninvasive photographic technique and address how knowledge of values of individual-specific metrics bears on conservation policy. I used 10 years of data on juvenile moose (Alces alces) to examine whether body size and probability of survival are positively correlated in cold climates. I investigated whether the presence of mothers improved juvenile survival. The posited latter relation is relevant to policy because harvest of adult females has been permitted in some Canadian and American jurisdictions under the assumption that probability of survival of young is independent of maternal presence. The accuracy of estimates of head sizes made from photographs exceeded 98%. The estimates revealed that overwinter juvenile survival had no relation to the juvenile's estimated mass (p < 0.64) and was more strongly associated with maternal presence (p < 0.02) than winter snow depth (p < 0.18). These findings highlight the effects on survival of a social dynamic (the mother-young association) rather than body size and suggest a change in harvest policy will increase survival. Furthermore, photographic imaging of growth of individual juvenile muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) over 3 Arctic winters revealed annual variability in size, which supports the idea that noninvasive monitoring may allow one to detect how some environmental conditions ultimately affect body growth. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

On the Ground or in the Air? A Methodological Experiment on Crop Residue Cover Measurement in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosmowski, Frédéric; Stevenson, James; Campbell, Jeff; Ambel, Alemayehu; Haile Tsegay, Asmelash

2017-10-01

Maintaining permanent coverage of the soil using crop residues is an important and commonly recommended practice in conservation agriculture. Measuring this practice is an essential step in improving knowledge about the adoption and impact of conservation agriculture. Different data collection methods can be implemented to capture the field level crop residue coverage for a given plot, each with its own implication on survey budget, implementation speed and respondent and interviewer burden. In this paper, six alternative methods of crop residue coverage measurement are tested among the same sample of rural households in Ethiopia. The relative accuracy of these methods are compared against a benchmark, the line-transect method. The alternative methods compared against the benchmark include: (i) interviewee (respondent) estimation; (ii) enumerator estimation visiting the field; (iii) interviewee with visual-aid without visiting the field; (iv) enumerator with visual-aid visiting the field; (v) field picture collected with a drone and analyzed with image-processing methods and (vi) satellite picture of the field analyzed with remote sensing methods. Results of the methodological experiment show that survey-based methods tend to underestimate field residue cover. When quantitative data on cover are needed, the best estimates are provided by visual-aid protocols. For categorical analysis (i.e., >30% cover or not), visual-aid protocols and remote sensing methods perform equally well. Among survey-based methods, the strongest correlates of measurement errors are total farm size, field size, distance, and slope. Results deliver a ranking of measurement options that can inform survey practitioners and researchers.

On the Ground or in the Air? A Methodological Experiment on Crop Residue Cover Measurement in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Kosmowski, Frédéric; Stevenson, James; Campbell, Jeff; Ambel, Alemayehu; Haile Tsegay, Asmelash

2017-10-01

Maintaining permanent coverage of the soil using crop residues is an important and commonly recommended practice in conservation agriculture. Measuring this practice is an essential step in improving knowledge about the adoption and impact of conservation agriculture. Different data collection methods can be implemented to capture the field level crop residue coverage for a given plot, each with its own implication on survey budget, implementation speed and respondent and interviewer burden. In this paper, six alternative methods of crop residue coverage measurement are tested among the same sample of rural households in Ethiopia. The relative accuracy of these methods are compared against a benchmark, the line-transect method. The alternative methods compared against the benchmark include: (i) interviewee (respondent) estimation; (ii) enumerator estimation visiting the field; (iii) interviewee with visual-aid without visiting the field; (iv) enumerator with visual-aid visiting the field; (v) field picture collected with a drone and analyzed with image-processing methods and (vi) satellite picture of the field analyzed with remote sensing methods. Results of the methodological experiment show that survey-based methods tend to underestimate field residue cover. When quantitative data on cover are needed, the best estimates are provided by visual-aid protocols. For categorical analysis (i.e., >30% cover or not), visual-aid protocols and remote sensing methods perform equally well. Among survey-based methods, the strongest correlates of measurement errors are total farm size, field size, distance, and slope. Results deliver a ranking of measurement options that can inform survey practitioners and researchers.

[Variability and opportunity costs among the surgical alternatives for breast cancer].

PubMed

Angulo-Pueyo, Ester; Ridao-López, Manuel; Martínez-Lizaga, Natalia; García-Armesto, Sandra; Bernal-Delgado, Enrique

2014-01-01

To analyze medical practice variation in breast cancer surgery (either inpatient-based or day-case surgery), by comparing conservative surgery (CS) plus radiotherapy vs. non-conservative surgery (NCS). We also analyzed the opportunity costs associated with CS and NCS. We performed an observational study of age- and sex-standardized rates of CS and NCS, performed in 199 Spanish healthcare areas in 2008-2009. Costs were calculated by using two techniques: indirectly, by using All-Patients Diagnosis Related Groups (AP-DRG) based on hospital admissions, and directly by using full costing from the Spanish Network of Hospital Costs (SNHC) data. Standardized surgery rates for CS and NCS were 6.84 and 4.35 per 10,000 women, with variation across areas ranging from 2.95 to 3.11 per 10,000 inhabitants. In 2009, 9% of CS was performed as day-case surgery, although a third of the health care areas did not perform this type of surgery. Taking the SNHC as a reference, the cost of CS was estimated at 7,078 € and that of NCS was 6,161 €. Using AP-DRG, costs amounted to 9,036 € and 8,526 €, respectively. However, CS had lower opportunity costs than NCS when day-case surgery was performed frequently-more than 46% of cases (following SNHC estimates) or 23% of cases (following AP-DRG estimates). Day-case CS for breast cancer was found to be the best option in terms of opportunity-costs beyond a specific threshold, when both CS and NCS are elective. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Estimates of ground-water recharge based on streamflow-hydrograph methods: Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.; Conger, Randall W.; Ulrich, James E.; Asmussen, Michael P.

2005-01-01

This study, completed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey (T&GS), provides estimates of ground-water recharge for watersheds throughout Pennsylvania computed by use of two automated streamflow-hydrograph-analysis methods--PART and RORA. The PART computer program uses a hydrograph-separation technique to divide the streamflow hydrograph into components of direct runoff and base flow. Base flow can be a useful approximation of recharge if losses and interbasin transfers of ground water are minimal. The RORA computer program uses a recession-curve displacement technique to estimate ground-water recharge from each storm period indicated on the streamflow hydrograph. Recharge estimates were made using streamflow records collected during 1885-2001 from 197 active and inactive streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania where streamflow is relatively unaffected by regulation. Estimates of mean-annual recharge in Pennsylvania computed by the use of PART ranged from 5.8 to 26.6 inches; estimates from RORA ranged from 7.7 to 29.3 inches. Estimates from the RORA program were about 2 inches greater than those derived from the PART program. Mean-monthly recharge was computed from the RORA program and was reported as a percentage of mean-annual recharge. On the basis of this analysis, the major ground-water recharge period in Pennsylvania typically is November through May; the greatest monthly recharge typically occurs in March.

Bounded Linear Stability Analysis - A Time Delay Margin Estimation Approach for Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.; Ishihara, Abraham K.; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje Srinlvas; Bakhtiari-Nejad, Maryam

2009-01-01

This paper presents a method for estimating time delay margin for model-reference adaptive control of systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent the conventional model-reference adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window using the comparison lemma. The locally bounded linear approximation of the combined adaptive system is cast in a form of an input-time-delay differential equation over a small time window. The time delay margin of this system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by a matrix measure method, which provides a simple analytical technique for estimating an upper bound of time delay margin. Based on simulation results for a scalar model-reference adaptive control system, both the bounded linear stability method and the matrix measure method are seen to provide a reasonably accurate and yet not too conservative time delay margin estimation.

When roads appear jaguars decline: Increased access to an Amazonian wilderness area reduces potential for jaguar conservation

PubMed Central

Celis, Gerardo; Branch, Lyn C.

2018-01-01

Roads are a main threat to biodiversity conservation in the Amazon, in part, because roads increase access for hunters. We examine how increased landscape access by hunters may lead to cascading effects that influence the prey community and abundance of the jaguar (Panthera onca), the top Amazonian terrestrial predator. Understanding such ecological effects originating from anthropogenic actions is essential for conservation and management of wildlife populations in areas undergoing infrastructure development. Our study was conducted in Yasuní Biosphere Reserve, the protected area with highest potential for jaguar conservation in Ecuador, and an area both threatened by road development and inhabited by indigenous groups dependent upon bushmeat. We surveyed prey and jaguar abundance with camera traps in four sites that differed in accessibility to hunters and used site occupancy and spatially explicit capture-recapture analyses to evaluate prey occurrence and estimate jaguar density, respectively. Higher landscape accessibility to hunters was linked with lower occurrence and biomass of game, particularly white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari) and collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), the primary game for hunters and prey for jaguars. Jaguar density was up to 18 times higher in the most remote site compared to the most accessible site. Our results provide a strong case for the need to: 1) consider conservation of large carnivores and other wildlife in policies about road construction in protected areas, 2) coordinate conservation initiatives with local governments so that development activities do not conflict with conservation objectives, and 3) promote development of community-based strategies for wildlife management that account for the needs of large carnivores. PMID:29298311

When roads appear jaguars decline: Increased access to an Amazonian wilderness area reduces potential for jaguar conservation.

PubMed

Espinosa, Santiago; Celis, Gerardo; Branch, Lyn C

2018-01-01

Roads are a main threat to biodiversity conservation in the Amazon, in part, because roads increase access for hunters. We examine how increased landscape access by hunters may lead to cascading effects that influence the prey community and abundance of the jaguar (Panthera onca), the top Amazonian terrestrial predator. Understanding such ecological effects originating from anthropogenic actions is essential for conservation and management of wildlife populations in areas undergoing infrastructure development. Our study was conducted in Yasuní Biosphere Reserve, the protected area with highest potential for jaguar conservation in Ecuador, and an area both threatened by road development and inhabited by indigenous groups dependent upon bushmeat. We surveyed prey and jaguar abundance with camera traps in four sites that differed in accessibility to hunters and used site occupancy and spatially explicit capture-recapture analyses to evaluate prey occurrence and estimate jaguar density, respectively. Higher landscape accessibility to hunters was linked with lower occurrence and biomass of game, particularly white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari) and collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), the primary game for hunters and prey for jaguars. Jaguar density was up to 18 times higher in the most remote site compared to the most accessible site. Our results provide a strong case for the need to: 1) consider conservation of large carnivores and other wildlife in policies about road construction in protected areas, 2) coordinate conservation initiatives with local governments so that development activities do not conflict with conservation objectives, and 3) promote development of community-based strategies for wildlife management that account for the needs of large carnivores.

Socioeconomic contexts of primate conservation: population, poverty, global economic demands, and sustainable land use.

PubMed

Estrada, Alejandro

2013-01-01

Recent assessments by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) indicate the existence of about 612 recognized primate species and subspecies (IUCN RedList, 2012), but close to 50% of these taxa are at risk of extinction as a result of human action. In this article, I call attention to underlying regional and global socioeconomic contexts of primate conservation. Using information from FAO and UN databases and other sources, I examine, for the Neotropics, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia, trends in forest loss and human demographics and social condition, discuss the impact of global market pressures upon primate habitats, and examine land-use patterns that may favor primate conservation. Between 1990 and 2010, an estimated 149 million ha of forest were lost in the three regions and additional losses are expected in the future. Global human population will increase from 7 billion in 2012 to 9 billion in 2050. Currently, 2 billion people live in the three primate range regions under high levels of poverty. Large-scale deforestation is related to global market demands, especially from developed and developing nations, for food (e.g., cattle), domestic animal feed (e.g., soybeans), biofuel-based crops (e.g., oil palm), and industrial round wood. The growth of protected areas in the three regions has been steady for several decades, but it is not enough to ensure long-term conservation of many primate taxa. Other conservations tools involving sustainable land use and biodiversity conservation corridors are required at the landscape level. The above assessment can easily be applied at the local level by primatologists, giving more precision to conservation initiatives. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genetic status and conservation of Westslope Cutthroat Trout in Glacier National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhlfeld, Clint C.; D'Angelo, Vincent S.; Downs, Christopher C.; Powell, John D.; Amish, Stephen J.; Luikart, Gordon; Kovach, Ryan; Boyer, Matthew; Kalinowski, Steven T.

2016-01-01

Invasive hybridization is one of the greatest threats to the persistence of Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi. Large protected areas, where nonhybridized populations are interconnected and express historical life history and genetic diversity, provide some of the last ecological and evolutionary strongholds for conserving this species. Here, we describe the genetic status and distribution of Westslope Cutthroat Trout throughout Glacier National Park, Montana. Admixture between Westslope Cutthroat Trout and introduced Rainbow Trout O. mykiss and Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout O. clarkii bouvieri was estimated by genotyping 1,622 fish collected at 115 sites distributed throughout the Columbia, Missouri, and South Saskatchewan River drainages. Currently, Westslope Cutthroat Trout occupy an estimated 1,465 km of stream habitat and 45 lakes (9,218 ha) in Glacier National Park. There was no evidence of introgression in samples from 32 sites along 587 km of stream length (40% of the stream kilometers currently occupied) and 17 lakes (2,555 ha; 46% of the lake area currently occupied). However, nearly all (97%) of the streams and lakes that were occupied by nonhybridized populations occurred in the Columbia River basin. Based on genetic status (nonnative genetic admixture ≤ 10%), 36 Westslope Cutthroat Trout populations occupying 821 km of stream and 5,482 ha of lakes were identified as “conservation populations.” Most of the conservation populations (N = 27; 736 km of stream habitat) occurred in the Columbia River basin, whereas only a few geographically restricted populations were found in the South Saskatchewan River (N = 7; 55 km) and Missouri River (N = 2; 30 km) basins. Westslope Cutthroat Trout appear to be at imminent risk of genomic extinction in the South Saskatchewan and Missouri River basins, whereas populations in the Columbia River basin are widely distributed and conservation efforts are actively addressing threats from hybridization and other stressors. A diverse set of pro-active management approaches will be required to conserve, protect, and restore Westslope Cutthroat Trout populations in Glacier National Park throughout the 21st century.

Use of sibling relationship reconstruction to complement traditional monitoring in fisheries management and conservation of brown trout.

PubMed

Ozerov, Mikhail; Jürgenstein, Tauno; Aykanat, Tutku; Vasemägi, Anti

2015-08-01

Declining trends in the abundance of many fish urgently call for more efficient and informative monitoring methods that would provide necessary demographic data for the evaluation of existing conservation, restoration, and management actions. We investigated how genetic sibship reconstruction from young-of-the-year brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) juveniles provides valuable, complementary demographic information that allowed us to disentangle the effects of habitat quality and number of breeders on juvenile density. We studied restored (n = 15) and control (n = 15) spawning and nursery habitats in 16 brown trout rivers and streams over 2 consecutive years to evaluate the effectiveness of habitat restoration activities. Similar juvenile densities both in restored and control spawning and nursery grounds were observed. Similarly, no differences in the effective number of breeders, Nb(SA) , were detected between habitats, indicating that brown trout readily used recently restored spawning grounds. Only a weak relationship between the Nb(SA) and juvenile density was observed, suggesting that multiple factors affect juvenile abundance. In some areas, very low estimates of Nb(SA) were found at sites with high juvenile density, indicating that a small number of breeders can produce a high number of progeny in favorable conditions. In other sites, high Nb(SA) estimates were associated with low juvenile density, suggesting low habitat quality or lack of suitable spawning substrate in relation to available breeders. Based on these results, we recommend the incorporation of genetic sibship reconstruction to ongoing and future fish evaluation and monitoring programs to gain novel insights into local demographic and evolutionary processes relevant for fisheries management, habitat restoration, and conservation. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Integrating gene flow, crop biology, and farm management in on-farm conservation of avocado (Persea americana, Lauraceae).

PubMed

Birnbaum, Kenneth; Desalle, Rob; Peters, Charles M; Benfey, Philip N

2003-11-01

Maintaining crop diversity on farms where cultivars can evolve is a conservation goal, but few tools are available to assess the long-term maintenance of genetic diversity on farms. One important issue for on-farm conservation is gene flow from crops with a narrow genetic base into related populations that are genetically diverse. In a case study of avocado (Persea americana var. americana) in one of its centers of diversity (San Jerónimo, Costa Rica), we used 10 DNA microsatellite markers in a parentage analysis to estimate gene flow from commercialized varieties into a traditional crop population. Five commercialized genotypes comprised nearly 40% of orchard trees, but they contributed only about 14.5% of the gametes to the youngest cohort of trees. Although commercialized varieties and the diverse population were often planted on the same farm, planting patterns appeared to keep the two types of trees separated on small scales, possibly explaining the limited gene flow. In a simulation that combined gene flow estimates, crop biology, and graft tree management, loss of allelic diversity was less than 10% over 150 yr, and selection was effective in retaining desirable alleles in the diverse subpopulation. Simulations also showed that, in addition to gene flow, managing the genetic makeup and life history traits of the invasive commercialized varieties could have a significant impact on genetic diversity in the target population. The results support the feasibility of on-farm crop conservation, but simulations also showed that higher levels of gene flow could lead to severe losses of genetic diversity even if farmers continue to plant diverse varieties.

Traveltime-based descriptions of transport and mixing in heterogeneous domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jian; Cirpka, Olaf A.

2008-09-01

Modeling mixing-controlled reactive transport using traditional spatial discretization of the domain requires identifying the spatial distributions of hydraulic and reactive parameters including mixing-related quantities such as dispersivities and kinetic mass transfer coefficients. In most applications, breakthrough curves (BTCs) of conservative and reactive compounds are measured at only a few locations and spatially explicit models are calibrated by matching these BTCs. A common difficulty in such applications is that the individual BTCs differ too strongly to justify the assumption of spatial homogeneity, whereas the number of observation points is too small to identify the spatial distribution of the decisive parameters. The key objective of the current study is to characterize physical transport by the analysis of conservative tracer BTCs and predict the macroscopic BTCs of compounds that react upon mixing from the interpretation of conservative tracer BTCs and reactive parameters determined in the laboratory. We do this in the framework of traveltime-based transport models which do not require spatially explicit, costly aquifer characterization. By considering BTCs of a conservative tracer measured on different scales, one can distinguish between mixing, which is a prerequisite for reactions, and spreading, which per se does not foster reactions. In the traveltime-based framework, the BTC of a solute crossing an observation plane, or ending in a well, is interpreted as the weighted average of concentrations in an ensemble of non-interacting streamtubes, each of which is characterized by a distinct traveltime value. Mixing is described by longitudinal dispersion and/or kinetic mass transfer along individual streamtubes, whereas spreading is characterized by the distribution of traveltimes, which also determines the weights associated with each stream tube. Key issues in using the traveltime-based framework include the description of mixing mechanisms and the estimation of the traveltime distribution. In this work, we account for both apparent longitudinal dispersion and kinetic mass transfer as mixing mechanisms, thus generalizing the stochastic-convective model with or without inter-phase mass transfer and the advective-dispersive streamtube model. We present a nonparametric approach of determining the traveltime distribution, given a BTC integrated over an observation plane and estimated mixing parameters. The latter approach is superior to fitting parametric models in cases wherein the true traveltime distribution exhibits multiple peaks or long tails. It is demonstrated that there is freedom for the combinations of mixing parameters and traveltime distributions to fit conservative BTCs and describe the tailing. A reactive transport case of a dual Michaelis-Menten problem demonstrates that the reactive mixing introduced by local dispersion and mass transfer may be described by apparent mean mass transfer with coefficients evaluated by local BTCs.

Error propagation in energetic carrying capacity models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, Aaron T.; Stafford, Joshua D.

2014-01-01

Conservation objectives derived from carrying capacity models have been used to inform management of landscapes for wildlife populations. Energetic carrying capacity models are particularly useful in conservation planning for wildlife; these models use estimates of food abundance and energetic requirements of wildlife to target conservation actions. We provide a general method for incorporating a foraging threshold (i.e., density of food at which foraging becomes unprofitable) when estimating food availability with energetic carrying capacity models. We use a hypothetical example to describe how past methods for adjustment of foraging thresholds biased results of energetic carrying capacity models in certain instances. Adjusting foraging thresholds at the patch level of the species of interest provides results consistent with ecological foraging theory. Presentation of two case studies suggest variation in bias which, in certain instances, created large errors in conservation objectives and may have led to inefficient allocation of limited resources. Our results also illustrate how small errors or biases in application of input parameters, when extrapolated to large spatial extents, propagate errors in conservation planning and can have negative implications for target populations.

Comparison of Gastric versus Gastrointestinal PBET Extractions for Estimating Oral Bioaccessibility of Metals in House Dust

PubMed Central

Boros, Kristina; Fortin, Danielle; Jayawardene, Innocent; Chénier, Marc; Levesque, Christine; Rasmussen, Pat E.

2017-01-01

Oral bioaccessibility estimates for six metals which are prevalent as contaminants in Canada (zinc, lead, cadmium, copper, nickel, and chromium) are investigated for house dust using the simple gastric phase versus the two-phase physiologically-based extraction technique (PBET). The purpose is to determine whether a complete gastrointestinal (GI) assay yields a more conservative (i.e., higher) estimate of metal bioaccessibility in house dust than the gastric phase alone (G-alone). The study samples include household vacuum dust collected from 33 homes in Montreal, Canada, plus four certified reference materials (NIST 2583, NIST 2584, NIST 2710 and NIST 2710a). Results indicate that percent bioaccessibilities obtained using G-alone are generally greater than or equivalent to those obtained using the complete GI simulation for the six studied metals in house dust. Median bioaccessibilities for G-alone/GI in household vacuum dust samples (n = 33) are 76.9%/19.5% for zinc, 50.4%/6.2% for lead, 70.0%/22.4% for cadmium, 33.9%/30.5% for copper and 28.5%/20.7% for nickel. Bioaccessible chromium is above the detection limit in only four out of 33 samples, for which G-alone results are not significantly different from GI results (p = 0.39). It is concluded that, for the six studied metals, a simple G-alone extraction provides a conservative and cost-effective approach for estimating oral bioaccessibility of metals in house dust. PMID:28106788

Predicting cerulean warbler habitat use in the Cumberland Mountains of Tennessee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buehler, D.A.; Welton, M.J.; Beachy, T.A.

2006-12-15

We developed a habitat model to predict cerulean warbler (Dendroica cerulea) habitat availability in the Cumberland Mountains of eastern Tennessee. We used 7 remotely sensed vegetation and topographic landform explanatory variables and known locations of territorial male cerulean warblers mapped in 2003 as the response variable to develop a Mahalanobis distance statistic model of potential habitat. We evaluated the accuracy of the model based on field surveys for ceruleans during the 2004 breeding season. The model performed well with an 80% correct classification of cerulean presence based on the validation data, although prediction of absence was only 54% correct. Wemore » extrapolated from potential habitat to cerulean abundance based on density estimates from territory mapping on 8 20-ha plots in 2005. Over the 200,000-ha study area, we estimated there were 80,584 ha of potential habitat, capable of supporting about 36,500 breeding pairs. We applied the model to the 21,609-ha state-owned Royal Blue Wildlife Management Area to evaluate the potential effects of coal surface mining as one example of a potential conflict between land use and cerulean warbler conservation. Our models suggest coal surface mining could remove 2,954 ha of cerulean habitat on Royal Blue Wildlife Management Area and could displace 2,540 breeding pairs (23% of the Royal Blue population). A comprehensive conservation strategy is needed to address potential and realized habitat loss and degradation on the breeding grounds, during migration, and on the wintering grounds.« less

An Estimate of Avian Mortality at Communication Towers in the United States and Canada

PubMed Central

Longcore, Travis; Rich, Catherine; Mineau, Pierre; MacDonald, Beau; Bert, Daniel G.; Sullivan, Lauren M.; Mutrie, Erin; Gauthreaux, Sidney A.; Avery, Michael L.; Crawford, Robert L.; Manville, Albert M.; Travis, Emilie R.; Drake, David

2012-01-01

Avian mortality at communication towers in the continental United States and Canada is an issue of pressing conservation concern. Previous estimates of this mortality have been based on limited data and have not included Canada. We compiled a database of communication towers in the continental United States and Canada and estimated avian mortality by tower with a regression relating avian mortality to tower height. This equation was derived from 38 tower studies for which mortality data were available and corrected for sampling effort, search efficiency, and scavenging where appropriate. Although most studies document mortality at guyed towers with steady-burning lights, we accounted for lower mortality at towers without guy wires or steady-burning lights by adjusting estimates based on published studies. The resulting estimate of mortality at towers is 6.8 million birds per year in the United States and Canada. Bootstrapped subsampling indicated that the regression was robust to the choice of studies included and a comparison of multiple regression models showed that incorporating sampling, scavenging, and search efficiency adjustments improved model fit. Estimating total avian mortality is only a first step in developing an assessment of the biological significance of mortality at communication towers for individual species or groups of species. Nevertheless, our estimate can be used to evaluate this source of mortality, develop subsequent per-species mortality estimates, and motivate policy action. PMID:22558082

An estimate of avian mortality at communication towers in the United States and Canada.

PubMed

Longcore, Travis; Rich, Catherine; Mineau, Pierre; MacDonald, Beau; Bert, Daniel G; Sullivan, Lauren M; Mutrie, Erin; Gauthreaux, Sidney A; Avery, Michael L; Crawford, Robert L; Manville, Albert M; Travis, Emilie R; Drake, David

2012-01-01

Avian mortality at communication towers in the continental United States and Canada is an issue of pressing conservation concern. Previous estimates of this mortality have been based on limited data and have not included Canada. We compiled a database of communication towers in the continental United States and Canada and estimated avian mortality by tower with a regression relating avian mortality to tower height. This equation was derived from 38 tower studies for which mortality data were available and corrected for sampling effort, search efficiency, and scavenging where appropriate. Although most studies document mortality at guyed towers with steady-burning lights, we accounted for lower mortality at towers without guy wires or steady-burning lights by adjusting estimates based on published studies. The resulting estimate of mortality at towers is 6.8 million birds per year in the United States and Canada. Bootstrapped subsampling indicated that the regression was robust to the choice of studies included and a comparison of multiple regression models showed that incorporating sampling, scavenging, and search efficiency adjustments improved model fit. Estimating total avian mortality is only a first step in developing an assessment of the biological significance of mortality at communication towers for individual species or groups of species. Nevertheless, our estimate can be used to evaluate this source of mortality, develop subsequent per-species mortality estimates, and motivate policy action.

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, M. A.

2016-12-01

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM) is a process-based model that was designed to address rangelands conditions. RHEM is designed for government agencies, land managers and conservationists who need sound, science-based technology to model, assess, and predict runoff and erosion rates on rangelands and to assist in evaluating rangeland conservation practices effects. RHEM is an event-based model that estimates runoff, erosion, and sediment delivery rates and volumes at the spatial scale of the hillslope and the temporal scale of as single rainfall event. It represents erosion processes under normal and fire-impacted rangeland conditions. Moreover, it adopts a new splash erosion and thin sheet-flow transport equation developed from rangeland data, and it links the model hydrologic and erosion parameters with rangeland plant community by providing a new system of parameter estimation equations based on 204 plots at 49 rangeland sites distributed across 15 western U.S. states. A dynamic partial differential sediment continuity equation is used to model the total detachment rate of concentrated flow and rain splash and sheet flow. RHEM is also designed to be used as a calculator, or "engine", within other watershed scale models. From the research perspective RHEM acts as a vehicle for incorporating new scientific findings from rangeland infiltration, runoff, and erosion studies. Current applications of the model include: 1) a web site for general use (conservation planning, research, etc.), 2) National Resource Inventory reports to Congress, 3) as a computational engine within watershed scale models (e.g., KINEROS, HEC), 4) Ecological Site & State and Transition Descriptions, 5) proposed in 2015 to become part of the NRCS Desktop applications for field offices.

Conservation biology for suites of species: Demographic modeling for Pacific island kingfishers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kesler, D.C.; Haig, S.M.

2007-01-01

Conservation practitioners frequently extrapolate data from single-species investigations when managing critically endangered populations. However, few researchers initiate work with the intent of making findings useful to conservation efforts for other species. We presented and explored the concept of conducting conservation-oriented research for suites of geographically separated populations with similar natural histories, resource needs, and extinction threats. An example was provided in the form of an investigation into the population demography of endangered Micronesian kingfishers (Todiramphus cinnamominus). We provided the first demographic parameter estimates for any of the 12 endangered Pacific Todiramphus species, and used results to develop a population projection matrix model for management throughout the insular Pacific. Further, we used the model for elasticity and simulation analyses with demographic values that randomly varied across ranges that might characterize congener populations. Results from elasticity and simulation analyses indicated that changes in breeding adult survival exerted the greatest magnitude of influence on population dynamics. However, changes in nestling survival were more consistently correlated with population dynamics as demographic rates were randomly altered. We concluded that conservation practitioners working with endangered Pacific kingfishers should primarily focus efforts on factors affecting nestling and breeder survival, and secondarily address fledgling juveniles and helpers. Further, we described how the generalized base model might be changed to focus on individual populations and discussed the potential application of multi-species models to other conservation situations. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

2011-12-01

Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little open space remains to accommodate the expected population growth. Redevelopment conserved more naturally vegetated open space. The redevelopment scenario also permits the lowest increase in energy demand because buildings taken out in the process are reconfigured to higher levels of energy efficiency. However, redevelopment requires substantial increases in residential densities to confine the spatial footprint of the expected future urban growth. These three urban growth scenario footprints differ in their impact to natural vegetation and open space. To incorporate the influence of climate change on remaining natural ecosystems in this urbanizing landscape, we projected the stability of existing, mapped, vegetation types in the region under future climates by examining where projected ranges of the dominant plant species comprising each California Wildlife Habitat Relationship type will all remain together, and where they will begin to dis-associate due to biogeographic response to changing climate. This permits identification of stable and unstable zones of vegetation. The combination of climate stable, high conservation priority and likelihood of urban development provides a way to prioritize conservation land acquisitions.

Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

PubMed

Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-10-01

No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

EFFECTIVENESS OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION PRACTICES FOR POLLUTION CONTROL

EPA Science Inventory

The potential water quality effects and economic implications of soil and water conservation practices (SWCPs) are identified. Method for estimating the effects of SWCPs on pollutant losses from croplands are presented. Mathematical simulation and linear programming models were u...

Remote sensing techniques for conservation and management of natural vegetation ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Verdesio, J. J.; Dossantos, J. R.

1981-01-01

The importance of using remote sensing techniques, in the visible and near-infrared ranges, for mapping, inventory, conservation and management of natural ecosystems is discussed. Some examples realized in Brazil or other countries are given to evaluate the products from orbital platform (MSS and RBV imagery of LANDSAT) and aerial level (photography) for ecosystems study. The maximum quantitative and qualitative information which can be obtained from each sensor, at different level, are discussed. Based on the developed experiments it is concluded that the remote sensing technique is a useful tool in mapping vegetation units, estimating biomass, forecasting and evaluation of fire damage, disease detection, deforestation mapping and change detection in land-use. In addition, remote sensing techniques can be used in controling implantation and planning natural/artificial regeneration.

Grizzly Bear Noninvasive Genetic Tagging Surveys: Estimating the Magnitude of Missed Detections.

PubMed

Fisher, Jason T; Heim, Nicole; Code, Sandra; Paczkowski, John

2016-01-01

Sound wildlife conservation decisions require sound information, and scientists increasingly rely on remotely collected data over large spatial scales, such as noninvasive genetic tagging (NGT). Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), for example, are difficult to study at population scales except with noninvasive data, and NGT via hair trapping informs management over much of grizzly bears' range. Considerable statistical effort has gone into estimating sources of heterogeneity, but detection error-arising when a visiting bear fails to leave a hair sample-has not been independently estimated. We used camera traps to survey grizzly bear occurrence at fixed hair traps and multi-method hierarchical occupancy models to estimate the probability that a visiting bear actually leaves a hair sample with viable DNA. We surveyed grizzly bears via hair trapping and camera trapping for 8 monthly surveys at 50 (2012) and 76 (2013) sites in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. We used multi-method occupancy models to estimate site occupancy, probability of detection, and conditional occupancy at a hair trap. We tested the prediction that detection error in NGT studies could be induced by temporal variability within season, leading to underestimation of occupancy. NGT via hair trapping consistently underestimated grizzly bear occupancy at a site when compared to camera trapping. At best occupancy was underestimated by 50%; at worst, by 95%. Probability of false absence was reduced through successive surveys, but this mainly accounts for error imparted by movement among repeated surveys, not necessarily missed detections by extant bears. The implications of missed detections and biased occupancy estimates for density estimation-which form the crux of management plans-require consideration. We suggest hair-trap NGT studies should estimate and correct detection error using independent survey methods such as cameras, to ensure the reliability of the data upon which species management and conservation actions are based.

GPS-Based Reduced Dynamic Orbit Determination Using Accelerometer Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanHelleputte, Tom; Visser, Pieter

2007-01-01

Currently two gravity field satellite missions, CHAMP and GRACE, are equipped with high sensitivity electrostatic accelerometers, measuring the non-conservative forces acting on the spacecraft in three orthogonal directions. During the gravity field recovery these measurements help to separate gravitational and non-gravitational contributions in the observed orbit perturbations. For precise orbit determination purposes all these missions have a dual-frequency GPS receiver on board. The reduced dynamic technique combines the dense and accurate GPS observations with physical models of the forces acting on the spacecraft, complemented by empirical accelerations, which are stochastic parameters adjusted in the orbit determination process. When the spacecraft carries an accelerometer, these measured accelerations can be used to replace the models of the non-conservative forces, such as air drag and solar radiation pressure. This approach is implemented in a batch least-squares estimator of the GPS High Precision Orbit Determination Software Tools (GHOST), developed at DLR/GSOC and DEOS. It is extensively tested with data of the CHAMP and GRACE satellites. As accelerometer observations typically can be affected by an unknown scale factor and bias in each measurement direction, they require calibration during processing. Therefore the estimated state vector is augmented with six parameters: a scale and bias factor for the three axes. In order to converge efficiently to a good solution, reasonable a priori values for the bias factor are necessary. These are calculated by combining the mean value of the accelerometer observations with the mean value of the non-conservative force models and empirical accelerations, estimated when using these models. When replacing the non-conservative force models with accelerometer observations and still estimating empirical accelerations, a good orbit precision is achieved. 100 days of GRACE B data processing results in a mean orbit fit of a few centimeters with respect to high-quality JPL reference orbits. This shows a slightly better consistency compared to the case when using force models. A purely dynamic orbit, without estimating empirical accelerations thus only adjusting six state parameters and the bias and scale factors, gives an orbit fit for the GRACE B test case below the decimeter level. The in orbit calibrated accelerometer observations can be used to validate the modelled accelerations and estimated empirical accelerations computed with the GHOST tools. In along track direction they show the best resemblance, with a mean correlation coefficient of 93% for the same period. In radial and normal direction the correlation is smaller. During days of high solar activity the benefit of using accelerometer observations is clearly visible. The observations during these days show fluctuations which the modelled and empirical accelerations can not follow.

Assessing Potential Conservation and Restoration Areas of Freshwater Fish Fauna in the Indian River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, Jay P.; Manish, Kumar; Mehta, Rajender; Pandit, Maharaj K.

2016-05-01

Conservation efforts globally are skewed toward terrestrial ecosystems. To date, conservation of aquatic ecosystems, in particular fish fauna, is largely neglected. We provide a country-wide assessment of Indian river ecosystems in order to identify and prioritize areas for protection and restoration of freshwater fish fauna. Using various biodiversity and anthropogenic attributes, coupled with tools of ecological modeling, we delineated areas for fish fauna conservation and restoration in the 20 major river basins of India. To do this, we used prioritization analyses and reserve selection algorithms to derive conservation value index (CVI) and vulnerability index (VI) of the river basins. CVI was estimated using endemicity, rarity, conservation value, and taxonomic singularity, while VI was estimated using a disturbance index derived from percent geographic area of the basin under human settlements, human population density, predominant land use, and total number of exotic fish species in each basin. The two indices, CVI and VI, were converted into geo-referenced maps, and each map was super-imposed onto species richness and forest cover maps, respectively. After superimposition, areas with high CVI and low VI shade intensities were delineated for conservation, while areas with high CVI and high VI shade intensities were demarcated for restoration. In view of the importance of freshwater fish for human livelihoods and consumption, and ecosystems of India's rivers, we call for urgent attention to the conservation of their fish fauna along with restoration of their degraded habitats.

Assessing Potential Conservation and Restoration Areas of Freshwater Fish Fauna in the Indian River Basins.

PubMed

Bhatt, Jay P; Manish, Kumar; Mehta, Rajender; Pandit, Maharaj K

2016-05-01

Conservation efforts globally are skewed toward terrestrial ecosystems. To date, conservation of aquatic ecosystems, in particular fish fauna, is largely neglected. We provide a country-wide assessment of Indian river ecosystems in order to identify and prioritize areas for protection and restoration of freshwater fish fauna. Using various biodiversity and anthropogenic attributes, coupled with tools of ecological modeling, we delineated areas for fish fauna conservation and restoration in the 20 major river basins of India. To do this, we used prioritization analyses and reserve selection algorithms to derive conservation value index (CVI) and vulnerability index (VI) of the river basins. CVI was estimated using endemicity, rarity, conservation value, and taxonomic singularity, while VI was estimated using a disturbance index derived from percent geographic area of the basin under human settlements, human population density, predominant land use, and total number of exotic fish species in each basin. The two indices, CVI and VI, were converted into geo-referenced maps, and each map was super-imposed onto species richness and forest cover maps, respectively. After superimposition, areas with high CVI and low VI shade intensities were delineated for conservation, while areas with high CVI and high VI shade intensities were demarcated for restoration. In view of the importance of freshwater fish for human livelihoods and consumption, and ecosystems of India's rivers, we call for urgent attention to the conservation of their fish fauna along with restoration of their degraded habitats.

An individual-based modelling approach to estimate landscape connectivity for bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis).

PubMed

Allen, Corrie H; Parrott, Lael; Kyle, Catherine

2016-01-01

Background. Preserving connectivity, or the ability of a landscape to support species movement, is among the most commonly recommended strategies to reduce the negative effects of climate change and human land use development on species. Connectivity analyses have traditionally used a corridor-based approach and rely heavily on least cost path modeling and circuit theory to delineate corridors. Individual-based models are gaining popularity as a potentially more ecologically realistic method of estimating landscape connectivity. However, this remains a relatively unexplored approach. We sought to explore the utility of a simple, individual-based model as a land-use management support tool in identifying and implementing landscape connectivity. Methods. We created an individual-based model of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) that simulates a bighorn sheep traversing a landscape by following simple movement rules. The model was calibrated for bighorn sheep in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, Canada, a region containing isolated herds that are vital to conservation of the species in its northern range. Simulations were run to determine baseline connectivity between subpopulations in the study area. We then applied the model to explore two land management scenarios on simulated connectivity: restoring natural fire regimes and identifying appropriate sites for interventions that would increase road permeability for bighorn sheep. Results. This model suggests there are no continuous areas of good habitat between current subpopulations of sheep in the study area; however, a series of stepping-stones or circuitous routes could facilitate movement between subpopulations and into currently unoccupied, yet suitable, bighorn habitat. Restoring natural fire regimes or mimicking fire with prescribed burns and tree removal could considerably increase bighorn connectivity in this area. Moreover, several key road crossing sites that could benefit from wildlife overpasses were identified. Discussion. By linking individual-scale movement rules to landscape-scale outcomes, our individual-based model of bighorn sheep allows for the exploration of how on-the-ground management or conservation scenarios may increase functional connectivity for the species in the study area. More generally, this study highlights the usefulness of individual-based models to identify how a species makes broad use of a landscape for movement. Application of this approach can provide effective quantitative support for decision makers seeking to incorporate wildlife conservation and connectivity into land use planning.

An individual-based modelling approach to estimate landscape connectivity for bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis)

PubMed Central

Allen, Corrie H.; Kyle, Catherine

2016-01-01

Background. Preserving connectivity, or the ability of a landscape to support species movement, is among the most commonly recommended strategies to reduce the negative effects of climate change and human land use development on species. Connectivity analyses have traditionally used a corridor-based approach and rely heavily on least cost path modeling and circuit theory to delineate corridors. Individual-based models are gaining popularity as a potentially more ecologically realistic method of estimating landscape connectivity. However, this remains a relatively unexplored approach. We sought to explore the utility of a simple, individual-based model as a land-use management support tool in identifying and implementing landscape connectivity. Methods. We created an individual-based model of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) that simulates a bighorn sheep traversing a landscape by following simple movement rules. The model was calibrated for bighorn sheep in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, Canada, a region containing isolated herds that are vital to conservation of the species in its northern range. Simulations were run to determine baseline connectivity between subpopulations in the study area. We then applied the model to explore two land management scenarios on simulated connectivity: restoring natural fire regimes and identifying appropriate sites for interventions that would increase road permeability for bighorn sheep. Results. This model suggests there are no continuous areas of good habitat between current subpopulations of sheep in the study area; however, a series of stepping-stones or circuitous routes could facilitate movement between subpopulations and into currently unoccupied, yet suitable, bighorn habitat. Restoring natural fire regimes or mimicking fire with prescribed burns and tree removal could considerably increase bighorn connectivity in this area. Moreover, several key road crossing sites that could benefit from wildlife overpasses were identified. Discussion. By linking individual-scale movement rules to landscape-scale outcomes, our individual-based model of bighorn sheep allows for the exploration of how on-the-ground management or conservation scenarios may increase functional connectivity for the species in the study area. More generally, this study highlights the usefulness of individual-based models to identify how a species makes broad use of a landscape for movement. Application of this approach can provide effective quantitative support for decision makers seeking to incorporate wildlife conservation and connectivity into land use planning. PMID:27168997

Value drivers: an approach for estimating health and disease management program savings.

PubMed

Phillips, V L; Becker, Edmund R; Howard, David H

2013-12-01

Health and disease management (HDM) programs have faced challenges in documenting savings related to their implementation. The objective of this eliminate study was to describe OptumHealth's (Optum) methods for estimating anticipated savings from HDM programs using Value Drivers. Optum's general methodology was reviewed, along with details of 5 high-use Value Drivers. The results showed that the Value Driver approach offers an innovative method for estimating savings associated with HDM programs. The authors demonstrated how real-time savings can be estimated for 5 Value Drivers commonly used in HDM programs: (1) use of beta-blockers in treatment of heart disease, (2) discharge planning for high-risk patients, (3) decision support related to chronic low back pain, (4) obesity management, and (5) securing transportation for primary care. The validity of savings estimates is dependent on the type of evidence used to gauge the intervention effect, generating changes in utilization and, ultimately, costs. The savings estimates derived from the Value Driver method are generally reasonable to conservative and provide a valuable framework for estimating financial impacts from evidence-based interventions.

Advancing Land-Sea Conservation Planning: Integrating Modelling of Catchments, Land-Use Change, and River Plumes to Prioritise Catchment Management and Protection.

PubMed

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Pressey, Robert L; Ban, Natalie C; Brodie, Jon

2015-01-01

Human-induced changes to river loads of nutrients and sediments pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems. Ongoing land-use change can further increase these loads, and amplify the impacts of land-based threats on vulnerable marine ecosystems. Consequently, there is a need to assess these threats and prioritise actions to mitigate their impacts. A key question regarding prioritisation is whether actions in catchments to maintain coastal-marine water quality can be spatially congruent with actions for other management objectives, such as conserving terrestrial biodiversity. In selected catchments draining into the Gulf of California, Mexico, we employed Land Change Modeller to assess the vulnerability of areas with native vegetation to conversion into crops, pasture, and urban areas. We then used SedNet, a catchment modelling tool, to map the sources and estimate pollutant loads delivered to the Gulf by these catchments. Following these analyses, we used modelled river plumes to identify marine areas likely influenced by land-based pollutants. Finally, we prioritised areas for catchment management based on objectives for conservation of terrestrial biodiversity and objectives for water quality that recognised links between pollutant sources and affected marine areas. Our objectives for coastal-marine water quality were to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges from anthropic areas, and minimise future increases in coastal sedimentation and eutrophication. Our objectives for protection of terrestrial biodiversity covered species of vertebrates. We used Marxan, a conservation planning tool, to prioritise interventions and explore spatial differences in priorities for both objectives. Notable differences in the distributions of land values for terrestrial biodiversity and coastal-marine water quality indicated the likely need for trade-offs between catchment management objectives. However, there were priority areas that contributed to both sets of objectives. Our study demonstrates a practical approach to integrating models of catchments, land-use change, and river plumes with conservation planning software to inform prioritisation of catchment management.

Advancing Land-Sea Conservation Planning: Integrating Modelling of Catchments, Land-Use Change, and River Plumes to Prioritise Catchment Management and Protection

PubMed Central

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Pressey, Robert L.; Ban, Natalie C.; Brodie, Jon

2015-01-01

Human-induced changes to river loads of nutrients and sediments pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems. Ongoing land-use change can further increase these loads, and amplify the impacts of land-based threats on vulnerable marine ecosystems. Consequently, there is a need to assess these threats and prioritise actions to mitigate their impacts. A key question regarding prioritisation is whether actions in catchments to maintain coastal-marine water quality can be spatially congruent with actions for other management objectives, such as conserving terrestrial biodiversity. In selected catchments draining into the Gulf of California, Mexico, we employed Land Change Modeller to assess the vulnerability of areas with native vegetation to conversion into crops, pasture, and urban areas. We then used SedNet, a catchment modelling tool, to map the sources and estimate pollutant loads delivered to the Gulf by these catchments. Following these analyses, we used modelled river plumes to identify marine areas likely influenced by land-based pollutants. Finally, we prioritised areas for catchment management based on objectives for conservation of terrestrial biodiversity and objectives for water quality that recognised links between pollutant sources and affected marine areas. Our objectives for coastal-marine water quality were to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges from anthropic areas, and minimise future increases in coastal sedimentation and eutrophication. Our objectives for protection of terrestrial biodiversity covered species of vertebrates. We used Marxan, a conservation planning tool, to prioritise interventions and explore spatial differences in priorities for both objectives. Notable differences in the distributions of land values for terrestrial biodiversity and coastal-marine water quality indicated the likely need for trade-offs between catchment management objectives. However, there were priority areas that contributed to both sets of objectives. Our study demonstrates a practical approach to integrating models of catchments, land-use change, and river plumes with conservation planning software to inform prioritisation of catchment management. PMID:26714166

Evaluating, predicting and mapping belowground carbon stores in Kenyan mangroves.

PubMed

Gress, Selena K; Huxham, Mark; Kairo, James G; Mugi, Lilian M; Briers, Robert A

2017-01-01

Despite covering only approximately 138 000 km 2 , mangroves are globally important carbon sinks with carbon density values three to four times that of terrestrial forests. A key challenge in evaluating the carbon benefits from mangrove forest conservation is the lack of rigorous spatially resolved estimates of mangrove sediment carbon stocks; most mangrove carbon is stored belowground. Previous work has focused on detailed estimations of carbon stores over relatively small areas, which has obvious limitations in terms of generality and scope of application. Most studies have focused only on quantifying the top 1 m of belowground carbon (BGC). Carbon stored at depths beyond 1 m, and the effects of mangrove species, location and environmental context on these stores, are poorly studied. This study investigated these variables at two sites (Gazi and Vanga in the south of Kenya) and used the data to produce a country-specific BGC predictive model for Kenya and map BGC store estimates throughout Kenya at spatial scales relevant for climate change research, forest management and REDD+ (reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation). The results revealed that mangrove species was the most reliable predictor of BGC; Rhizophora muronata had the highest mean BGC with 1485.5 t C ha -1 . Applying the species-based predictive model to a base map of species distribution in Kenya for the year 2010 with a 2.5 m 2 resolution produced an estimate of 69.41 Mt C [±9.15 95% confidence interval (C.I.)] for BGC in Kenyan mangroves. When applied to a 1992 mangrove distribution map, the BGC estimate was 75.65 Mt C (±12.21 95% C.I.), an 8.3% loss in BGC stores between 1992 and 2010 in Kenya. The country-level mangrove map provides a valuable tool for assessing carbon stocks and visualizing the distribution of BGC. Estimates at the 2.5 m 2 resolution provide sufficient details for highlighting and prioritizing areas for mangrove conservation and restoration. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Occupancy Modeling Species-Environment Relationships with Non-ignorable Survey Designs.

PubMed

Irvine, Kathryn M; Rodhouse, Thomas J; Wright, Wilson J; Olsen, Anthony R

2018-05-26

Statistical models supporting inferences about species occurrence patterns in relation to environmental gradients are fundamental to ecology and conservation biology. A common implicit assumption is that the sampling design is ignorable and does not need to be formally accounted for in analyses. The analyst assumes data are representative of the desired population and statistical modeling proceeds. However, if datasets from probability and non-probability surveys are combined or unequal selection probabilities are used, the design may be non ignorable. We outline the use of pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for site-occupancy models to account for such non-ignorable survey designs. This estimation method accounts for the survey design by properly weighting the pseudo-likelihood equation. In our empirical example, legacy and newer randomly selected locations were surveyed for bats to bridge a historic statewide effort with an ongoing nationwide program. We provide a worked example using bat acoustic detection/non-detection data and show how analysts can diagnose whether their design is ignorable. Using simulations we assessed whether our approach is viable for modeling datasets composed of sites contributed outside of a probability design Pseudo-maximum likelihood estimates differed from the usual maximum likelihood occu31 pancy estimates for some bat species. Using simulations we show the maximum likelihood estimator of species-environment relationships with non-ignorable sampling designs was biased, whereas the pseudo-likelihood estimator was design-unbiased. However, in our simulation study the designs composed of a large proportion of legacy or non-probability sites resulted in estimation issues for standard errors. These issues were likely a result of highly variable weights confounded by small sample sizes (5% or 10% sampling intensity and 4 revisits). Aggregating datasets from multiple sources logically supports larger sample sizes and potentially increases spatial extents for statistical inferences. Our results suggest that ignoring the mechanism for how locations were selected for data collection (e.g., the sampling design) could result in erroneous model-based conclusions. Therefore, in order to ensure robust and defensible recommendations for evidence-based conservation decision-making, the survey design information in addition to the data themselves must be available for analysts. Details for constructing the weights used in estimation and code for implementation are provided. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Approximating a DSM-5 Diagnosis of PTSD Using DSM-IV Criteria

PubMed Central

Rosellini, Anthony J.; Stein, Murray B.; Colpe, Lisa J.; Heeringa, Steven G.; Petukhova, Maria V.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Schoenbaum, Michael; Ursano, Robert J.; Kessler, Ronald C.

2015-01-01

Background Diagnostic criteria for DSM-5 posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are in many ways similar to DSM-IV criteria, raising the possibility that it might be possible to closely approximate DSM-5 diagnoses using DSM-IV symptoms. If so, the resulting transformation rules could be used to pool research data based on the two criteria sets. Methods The Pre-Post Deployment Study (PPDS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) administered a blended 30-day DSM-IV and DSM-5 PTSD symptom assessment based on the civilian PTSD Checklist for DSM-IV (PCL-C) and the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5). This assessment was completed by 9,193 soldiers from three US Army Brigade Combat Teams approximately three months after returning from Afghanistan. PCL-C items were used to operationalize conservative and broad approximations of DSM-5 PTSD diagnoses. The operating characteristics of these approximations were examined compared to diagnoses based on actual DSM-5 criteria. Results The estimated 30-day prevalence of DSM-5 PTSD based on conservative (4.3%) and broad (4.7%) approximations of DSM-5 criteria using DSM-IV symptom assessments were similar to estimates based on actual DSM-5 criteria (4.6%). Both approximations had excellent sensitivity (92.6-95.5%), specificity (99.6-99.9%), total classification accuracy (99.4-99.6%), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.96-0.98). Conclusions DSM-IV symptoms can be used to approximate DSM-5 diagnoses of PTSD among recently-deployed soldiers, making it possible to recode symptom-level data from earlier DSM-IV studies to draw inferences about DSM-5 PTSD. However, replication is needed in broader trauma-exposed samples to evaluate the external validity of this finding. PMID:25845710

Adjoint-Based, Three-Dimensional Error Prediction and Grid Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Michael A.

2002-01-01

Engineering computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and design applications focus on output functions (e.g., lift, drag). Errors in these output functions are generally unknown and conservatively accurate solutions may be computed. Computable error estimates can offer the possibility to minimize computational work for a prescribed error tolerance. Such an estimate can be computed by solving the flow equations and the linear adjoint problem for the functional of interest. The computational mesh can be modified to minimize the uncertainty of a computed error estimate. This robust mesh-adaptation procedure automatically terminates when the simulation is within a user specified error tolerance. This procedure for estimating and adapting to error in a functional is demonstrated for three-dimensional Euler problems. An adaptive mesh procedure that links to a Computer Aided Design (CAD) surface representation is demonstrated for wing, wing-body, and extruded high lift airfoil configurations. The error estimation and adaptation procedure yielded corrected functions that are as accurate as functions calculated on uniformly refined grids with ten times as many grid points.

Identifying and prioritizing ungulate migration routes for landscape-level conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sawyer, Hall; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Nielson, Ryan M.; Horne, Jon S.

2009-01-01

As habitat loss and fragmentation increase across ungulate ranges, identifying and prioritizing migration routes for conservation has taken on new urgency. Here we present a general framework using the Brownian bridge movement model (BBMM) that: (1) provides a probabilistic estimate of the migration routes of a sampled population, (2) distinguishes between route segments that function as stopover sites vs. those used primarily as movement corridors, and (3) prioritizes routes for conservation based upon the proportion of the sampled population that uses them. We applied this approach to a migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) population in a pristine area of southwest Wyoming, USA, where 2000 gas wells and 1609 km of pipelines and roads have been proposed for development. Our analysis clearly delineated where migration routes occurred relative to proposed development and provided guidance for on-the-ground conservation efforts. Mule deer migration routes were characterized by a series of stopover sites where deer spent most of their time, connected by movement corridors through which deer moved quickly. Our findings suggest management strategies that differentiate between stopover sites and movement corridors may be warranted. Because some migration routes were used by more mule deer than others, proportional level of use may provide a reasonable metric by which routes can be prioritized for conservation. The methods we outline should be applicable to a wide range of species that inhabit regions where migration routes are threatened or poorly understood.

Local understandings of conservation in southeastern Mexico and their implications for community-based conservation as an alternative paradigm.

PubMed

Reyes-Garcia, Victoria; Ruiz-Mallen, Isabel; Porter-Bolland, Luciana; Garcia-Frapolli, Eduardo; Ellis, Edward A; Mendez, Maria-Elena; Pritchard, Diana J; Sanchez-Gonzalez, María-Consuelo

2013-08-01

Since the 1990s national and international programs have aimed to legitimize local conservation initiatives that might provide an alternative to the formal systems of state-managed or otherwise externally driven protected areas. We used discourse analysis (130 semistructured interviews with key informants) and descriptive statistics (679 surveys) to compare local perceptions of and experiences with state-driven versus community-driven conservation initiatives. We conducted our research in 6 communities in southeastern Mexico. Formalization of local conservation initiatives did not seem to be based on local knowledge and practices. Although interviewees thought community-based initiatives generated less conflict than state-managed conservation initiatives, the community-based initiatives conformed to the biodiversity conservation paradigm that emphasizes restricted use of and access to resources. This restrictive approach to community-based conservation in Mexico, promoted through state and international conservation organizations, increased the area of protected land and had local support but was not built on locally relevant and multifunctional landscapes, a model that community-based conservation is assumed to advance. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

10 CFR 436.10 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.10 Purpose. This subpart establishes a methodology and procedures for estimating and comparing the life cycle costs of Federal buildings, for determining the life cycle cost effectiveness of energy conservation measures and water conservation measures, and for rank ordering life cycle...

The ABC of stereotypes about groups: Agency/socioeconomic success, conservative-progressive beliefs, and communion.

PubMed

Koch, Alex; Imhoff, Roland; Dotsch, Ron; Unkelbach, Christian; Alves, Hans

2016-05-01

Previous research argued that stereotypes differ primarily on the 2 dimensions of warmth/communion and competence/agency. We identify an empirical gap in support for this notion. The theoretical model constrains stereotypes a priori to these 2 dimensions; without this constraint, participants might spontaneously employ other relevant dimensions. We fill this gap by complementing the existing theory-driven approaches with a data-driven approach that allows an estimation of the spontaneously employed dimensions of stereotyping. Seven studies (total N = 4,451) show that people organize social groups primarily based on their agency/socioeconomic success (A), and as a second dimension, based on their conservative-progressive beliefs (B). Communion (C) is not found as a dimension by its own, but rather as an emergent quality in the two-dimensional space of A and B, resulting in a 2D ABC model of stereotype content about social groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Science deficiency in conservation practice: the monitoring of tiger populations in India

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Seidensticker, J.; Dinerstein, Eric; Smith, J.L.D.; McDougal, C.; Johnsingh, A.J.T.; Chundawat, Raghunandan S.; Thapar, V.

2003-01-01

Conservation practices are supposed to get refined by advancing scientific knowledge. We study this phenomenon in the context of monitoring tiger populations in India, by evaluating the 'pugmark census method' employed by wildlife managers for three decades. We use an analytical framework of modem animal population sampling to test the efficacy of the pugmark censuses using scientific data on tigers and our field observations. We identify three critical goals for monitoring tiger populations, in order of increasing sophistication: (1) distribution mapping, (2) tracking relative abundance, (3) estimation of absolute abundance. We demonstrate that the present census-based paradigm does not work because it ignores the first two simpler goals, and targets, but fails to achieve, the most difficult third goal. We point out the utility and ready availability of alternative monitoring paradigms that deal with the central problems of spatial sampling and observability. We propose an alternative sampling-based approach that can be tailored to meet practical needs of tiger monitoring at different levels of refinement.

Impacts of forest fragmentation on species richness: a hierarchical approach to community modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; DeWan, Amielle; Royle, J. Andrew

2009-01-01

1. Species richness is often used as a tool for prioritizing conservation action. One method for predicting richness and other summaries of community structure is to develop species-specific models of occurrence probability based on habitat or landscape characteristics. However, this approach can be challenging for rare or elusive species for which survey data are often sparse. 2. Recent developments have allowed for improved inference about community structure based on species-specific models of occurrence probability, integrated within a hierarchical modelling framework. This framework offers advantages to inference about species richness over typical approaches by accounting for both species-level effects and the aggregated effects of landscape composition on a community as a whole, thus leading to increased precision in estimates of species richness by improving occupancy estimates for all species, including those that were observed infrequently. 3. We developed a hierarchical model to assess the community response of breeding birds in the Hudson River Valley, New York, to habitat fragmentation and analysed the model using a Bayesian approach. 4. The model was designed to estimate species-specific occurrence and the effects of fragment area and edge (as measured through the perimeter and the perimeter/area ratio, P/A), while accounting for imperfect detection of species. 5. We used the fitted model to make predictions of species richness within forest fragments of variable morphology. The model revealed that species richness of the observed bird community was maximized in small forest fragments with a high P/A. However, the number of forest interior species, a subset of the community with high conservation value, was maximized in large fragments with low P/A. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the responses of both individual, and groups of species, to environmental heterogeneity while illustrating the utility of hierarchical models for inference about species richness for conservation. This framework can be used to investigate the impacts of land-use change and fragmentation on species or assemblage richness, and to further understand trade-offs in species-specific occupancy probabilities associated with landscape variability.

Seasonal survival of radiomarked emperor geese in western Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hupp, Jerry W.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Ely, Craig R.

2008-01-01

The population of emperor geese (Chen canagica) in western Alaska, USA, declined by >50% from the 1960s to the mid-1980s and has increased only slightly since. Rates of population increase among arctic geese are especially sensitive to changes in adult survival. Improving adult survival in seasons or geographic areas where survival is low may be the best means of increasing the emperor goose population. We monitored fates of 133 adult female emperor geese that were radiomarked with surgically implanted very high frequency or satellite radiotransmitters from 1999 to 2004 to assess whether monthly survival varied among years, seasons, or geographic areas. Because of uncertainties in determining whether a bird had died based on the radio signal, we analyzed 2 versions of the data. One version used conservative criteria to identify which birds had died based on radio signals and the other used more liberal criteria. In the conservative version of the data we detected 12 mortalities of emperor geese, whereas in the liberal interpretation there were 18 mortalities. In both versions, the models with greatest support indicated that monthly survival varied seasonally and that compared to most seasons estimated monthly survival was lower (?? -0.95-0.98) in May and August when emperor geese were mainly on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. From 44% to 47% of annual mortality occurred in those months. Estimated monthly survival was higher (?? = 0.98-1.0) from September through March when emperor geese were at autumn staging or wintering areas and in June and July when birds were nesting, rearing broods, or molting. Estimated annual survival was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.77-0.92) in the best-supported model when we used conservative criteria to identify mortalities and 0.79 (95%o CI = 0.74-0.85) under the best model using liberal mortality criteria. Lower survival in August and May corresponded to periods when subsistence harvest of emperor geese was likely highest. Managers may be able to most effectively influence population growth rate of emperor geese by reducing subsistence harvest on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in May and August.

Assessing Species Boundaries Using Multilocus Species Delimitation in a Morphologically Conserved Group of Neotropical Freshwater Fishes, the Poecilia sphenops Species Complex (Poeciliidae)

PubMed Central

Bagley, Justin C.; Alda, Fernando; Breitman, M. Florencia; Bermingham, Eldredge; van den Berghe, Eric P.; Johnson, Jerald B.

2015-01-01

Accurately delimiting species is fundamentally important for understanding species diversity and distributions and devising effective strategies to conserve biodiversity. However, species delimitation is problematic in many taxa, including ‘non-adaptive radiations’ containing morphologically cryptic lineages. Fortunately, coalescent-based species delimitation methods hold promise for objectively estimating species limits in such radiations, using multilocus genetic data. Using coalescent-based approaches, we delimit species and infer evolutionary relationships in a morphologically conserved group of Central American freshwater fishes, the Poecilia sphenops species complex. Phylogenetic analyses of multiple genetic markers (sequences of two mitochondrial DNA genes and five nuclear loci) from 10/15 species and genetic lineages recognized in the group support the P. sphenops species complex as monophyletic with respect to outgroups, with eight mitochondrial ‘major-lineages’ diverged by ≥2% pairwise genetic distances. From general mixed Yule-coalescent models, we discovered (conservatively) 10 species within our concatenated mitochondrial DNA dataset, 9 of which were strongly supported by subsequent multilocus Bayesian species delimitation and species tree analyses. Results suggested species-level diversity is underestimated or overestimated by at least ~15% in different lineages in the complex. Nonparametric statistics and coalescent simulations indicate genealogical discordance among our gene tree results has mainly derived from interspecific hybridization in the nuclear genome. However, mitochondrial DNA show little evidence for introgression, and our species delimitation results appear robust to effects of this process. Overall, our findings support the utility of combining multiple lines of genetic evidence and broad phylogeographical sampling to discover and validate species using coalescent-based methods. Our study also highlights the importance of testing for hybridization versus incomplete lineage sorting, which aids inference of not only species limits but also evolutionary processes influencing genetic diversity. PMID:25849959

Assessing species boundaries using multilocus species delimitation in a morphologically conserved group of neotropical freshwater fishes, the Poecilia sphenops species complex (Poeciliidae).

PubMed

Bagley, Justin C; Alda, Fernando; Breitman, M Florencia; Bermingham, Eldredge; van den Berghe, Eric P; Johnson, Jerald B

2015-01-01

Accurately delimiting species is fundamentally important for understanding species diversity and distributions and devising effective strategies to conserve biodiversity. However, species delimitation is problematic in many taxa, including 'non-adaptive radiations' containing morphologically cryptic lineages. Fortunately, coalescent-based species delimitation methods hold promise for objectively estimating species limits in such radiations, using multilocus genetic data. Using coalescent-based approaches, we delimit species and infer evolutionary relationships in a morphologically conserved group of Central American freshwater fishes, the Poecilia sphenops species complex. Phylogenetic analyses of multiple genetic markers (sequences of two mitochondrial DNA genes and five nuclear loci) from 10/15 species and genetic lineages recognized in the group support the P. sphenops species complex as monophyletic with respect to outgroups, with eight mitochondrial 'major-lineages' diverged by ≥2% pairwise genetic distances. From general mixed Yule-coalescent models, we discovered (conservatively) 10 species within our concatenated mitochondrial DNA dataset, 9 of which were strongly supported by subsequent multilocus Bayesian species delimitation and species tree analyses. Results suggested species-level diversity is underestimated or overestimated by at least ~15% in different lineages in the complex. Nonparametric statistics and coalescent simulations indicate genealogical discordance among our gene tree results has mainly derived from interspecific hybridization in the nuclear genome. However, mitochondrial DNA show little evidence for introgression, and our species delimitation results appear robust to effects of this process. Overall, our findings support the utility of combining multiple lines of genetic evidence and broad phylogeographical sampling to discover and validate species using coalescent-based methods. Our study also highlights the importance of testing for hybridization versus incomplete lineage sorting, which aids inference of not only species limits but also evolutionary processes influencing genetic diversity.

Navy Water Conservation Guide for Shore Activities.

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-07-01

maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection ofinformation . Sendcomments regarding this burden estimate orany otherospectof...Submittal Packages E-1 vi LIST OF FIGURES 1-1 Flowchart Showing the Requirements of Executive Order 12902 for Water Conservation 2 1-2 Roles of DOE, GSA...subsequent year. has its own unique role in imple- menting water conservation. In the An audit can be considered Navy, the Naval Facilities Engineer- current

Coordinating across scales: Building a regional marsh bird monitoring program from national and state Initiatives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shriver, G.W.; Sauer, J.R.

2008-01-01

Salt marsh breeding bird populations (rails, bitterns, sparrows, etc.) in eastern North America are high conservation priorities in need of site specific and regional monitoring designed to detect population changes over time. The present status and trends of these species are unknown but anecdotal evidence of declines in many of the species has raised conservation concerns. Most of these species are listed as conservation priorities on comprehensive wildlife plans throughout the eastern U.S. National Wildlife Refuges, National Park Service units, and other wildlife conservation areas provide important salt marsh habitat. To meet management needs for these areas, and to assist regional conservation planning, survey designs are being developed to estimate abundance and population trends for these breeding bird species. The primary purpose of this project is to develop a hierarchical sampling frame for salt marsh birds in Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 30 that will provide the ability to estimate species population abundances on 1) specific sites (i.e. National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges), 2) within states or regions, and 3) within BCR 30. The entire breeding range of Saltmarsh Sharp-tailed and Coastal Plain Swamp sparrows are within BCR 30, providing an opportunity to detect population trends within the entire breeding ranges of two priority species.

Assessment of Patient-Specific Surgery Effect Based on Weighted Estimation and Propensity Scoring in the Re-Analysis of the Sciatica Trial

PubMed Central

Mertens, Bart J. A.; Jacobs, Wilco C. H.; Brand, Ronald; Peul, Wilco C.

2014-01-01

We consider a re-analysis of the wait-and-see (control) arm of a recent clinical trial on sciatica. While the original randomised trial was designed to evaluate the public policy effect of a conservative wait-and-see approach versus early surgery, we investigate the impact of surgery at the individual patient level in a re-analysis of the wait-and-see group data. Both marginal structural model re-weighted estimates as well as propensity score adjusted analyses are presented. Results indicate that patients with high propensity to receive surgery may have beneficial effects at 2 years from delayed disc surgery. PMID:25353633

Concepts and practices: Estimating abundance of prey species using hierarchical model-based approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert; Kumar, N. Samba; Royle, Andy; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

2017-01-01

Tigers predominantly prey on large ungulate species, such as sambar (Cervus unicolor), red deer (Cervus elaphus), gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), chital (Axis axis), muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak), wild pig (Sus scrofa), and bearded pig (Sus barbatus). The density of a tiger population is strongly correlated with the density of such prey species (Karanth et al. 2004). In the absence of direct hunting of tigers, abundance of prey in an area is the key determinant of the “carrying capacity” of that area for tigers (Chap. 2). Accurate estimates of prey abundance are often needed to assess the potential number of tigers a conservation area can support.

An approximation of herd effect due to vaccinating children against seasonal influenza - a potential solution to the incorporation of indirect effects into static models.

PubMed

Van Vlaenderen, Ilse; Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Meier, Genevieve; Nautrup, Barbara Poulsen

2013-01-22

Indirect herd effect from vaccination of children offers potential for improving the effectiveness of influenza prevention in the remaining unvaccinated population. Static models used in cost-effectiveness analyses cannot dynamically capture herd effects. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to allow herd effect associated with vaccinating children against seasonal influenza to be incorporated into static models evaluating the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Two previously published linear equations for approximation of herd effects in general were compared with the results of a structured literature review undertaken using PubMed searches to identify data on herd effects specific to influenza vaccination. A linear function was fitted to point estimates from the literature using the sum of squared residuals. The literature review identified 21 publications on 20 studies for inclusion. Six studies provided data on a mathematical relationship between effective vaccine coverage in subgroups and reduction of influenza infection in a larger unvaccinated population. These supported a linear relationship when effective vaccine coverage in a subgroup population was between 20% and 80%. Three studies evaluating herd effect at a community level, specifically induced by vaccinating children, provided point estimates for fitting linear equations. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the target population for vaccination (children) was slightly less conservative than a previously published equation for herd effects in general. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the non-target population was considerably less conservative than the previously published equation. This method of approximating herd effect requires simple adjustments to the annual baseline risk of influenza in static models: (1) for the age group targeted by the childhood vaccination strategy (i.e. children); and (2) for other age groups not targeted (e.g. adults and/or elderly). Two approximations provide a linear relationship between effective coverage and reduction in the risk of infection. The first is a conservative approximation, recommended as a base-case for cost-effectiveness evaluations. The second, fitted to data extracted from a structured literature review, provides a less conservative estimate of herd effect, recommended for sensitivity analyses.

DoD Military Injury Prevention Priorities Working Group: Leading Injuries, Causes and Mitigation Recommendations

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-02-01

Based upon conservative estimates, lower extremity overuse injuries (e.g. pain , inflammation, and stress fractures) alone resulted in over three million...Injury Freq 1 Lower Extremity Overuse ( Pain , inflammation, & stress fractures) 3,803,512 34.5% 240,796 2 Torso Overuse ( Pain , inflammation, & stress...fractures) 2,165,562 19.6% 154,683 3 Upper Extremity Overuse ( Pain , inflammation, & stress fractures) 1,314,330 11.9% 93,750 4 Unspecified Location

Northwest Energy Policy Project. Energy conservation policy evaluation: study module IA. Final report. Volume I. Summary report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berney, R.E.; Butcher, W.R.; Carter, L.F.

1977-01-01

This summary report identifies potential energy conservation measures and evaluates measures and policy options not likely to be suitable for adoption in the Pacific Northwest. Potential and incentives for energy conservation are specifically identified in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors and through urban design. Selection of preferable policies and estimation of response to policies are next discussed. Finally, a computer impact model for calculating energy savings and changes in the levels of residuals resulting from energy conservation activities is discussed. (MCW)

AvianBuffer: An interactive tool for characterising and managing wildlife fear responses.

PubMed

Guay, Patrick-Jean; van Dongen, Wouter F D; Robinson, Randall W; Blumstein, Daniel T; Weston, Michael A

2016-11-01

The characterisation and management of deleterious processes affecting wildlife are ideally based on sound scientific information. However, relevant information is often absent, or difficult to access or contextualise for specific management purposes. We describe 'AvianBuffer', an interactive online tool enabling the estimation of distances at which Australian birds respond fearfully to humans. Users can input species assemblages and determine a 'separation distance' above which the assemblage is predicted to not flee humans. They can also nominate the diversity they wish to minimise disturbance to, or a specific separation distance to obtain an estimate of the diversity that will remain undisturbed. The dataset is based upon flight-initiation distances (FIDs) from 251 Australian bird species (n = 9190 FIDs) and a range of human-associated stimuli. The tool will be of interest to a wide audience including conservation managers, pest managers, policy makers, land-use planners, education and public outreach officers, animal welfare proponents and wildlife ecologists. We discuss possible applications of the data, including the construction of buffers, development of codes of conduct, environmental impact assessments and public outreach. This tool will help balance the growing need for biodiversity conservation in areas where humans can experience nature. The online resource will be expanded in future iterations to include an international database of FIDs of both avian and non-avian species.

Nutrient Tracking Tool - A user-friendly tool for evaluating the water and air quality and quantity as affected by various agricultural management practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, A.; Niraula, R.; Gallego, O.; Osei, E.; Kannan, N.

2017-12-01

The Nutrient Tracking Tool (NTT) is a user-friendly web-based computer program that estimate nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment losses from fields managed under a variety of cropping patterns and management practices. The NTT includes a user-friendly web-based interface and is linked to the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model. It also accesses USDA-NRCS's Web Soil Survey to obtain field, weather, and soil information. NTT provides producers, government officials, and other users with a fast and efficient method of estimating the nutrient, sediment, and atmosphoric gases (N2o, Co2, and NH4) losses, and crop production under different conservation practices regims at the farm-level. The information obtained from NTT can help producers to determine the most cost-effective conservation practice(s) to reduce the nutrient and sediment losses while optimizing the crop production. Also, the recent version of NTT (NTTg3) has been developed for those coutries without access to national databasis, such as soils and wether. The NTTg3 also has been designed as easy to use APEX interface. NTT is currently being evaluated for trading and other programs at Cheaseapea Bay regions and numerous states in US. During this presentation the new capabilities of NTTg3 will be described and demonstrated.

[Advances in the research on hyperspectral remote sensing in biodiversity and conservation].

PubMed

He, Cheng; Feng, Zhong-Ke; Yuan, Jin-Jun; Wang, Jia; Gong, Yin-Xi; Dong, Zhi-Hai

2012-06-01

With the species reduction and the habitat destruction becoming serious increasingly, the biodiversity conservation has become one of the hottest topics. Remote sensing, the science of non-contact collection information, has the function of corresponding estimates of biodiversity, building model between species diversity relationship and mapping the index of biodiversity, which has been used widely in the field of biodiversity conservation. The present paper discussed the application of hyperspectral technology to the biodiversity conservation from two aspects, remote sensors and remote sensing techniques, and after, enumerated successful applications for emphasis. All these had a certain reference value in the development of biodiversity conservation.

Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanta, L.

2016-12-01

Outdoor water use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end use in residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density or lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, records of outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for garden irrigation parameters to determine the most significant factors that should be considered by water utilities to reduce outdoor demand. Data from multiple sources and the agent-based modeling methodology are integrated using a holistic approach to assist utilities in efficiently and sustainably managing outdoor demand.

Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanta, L.; Berglund, E. Z.; Soh, M. H.

2017-12-01

Outdoor water-use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end-use in total residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water-use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water-uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density, lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water-use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for garden irrigation parameters to determine the most significant factors that should be considered by water utilities to reduce outdoor demand. Data from multiple sources and the agent-based modeling methodology are integrated using a holistic approach to assist utilities in efficiently and sustainably managing outdoor demand.

[DRG-based cost analysis of inpatient conservative treatment of stage III/IV peripheral arterial occlusive disease].

PubMed

Heidrich, H; Rogatti, W; Altmann, E; Bauersachs, R; Diehm, C; Fahrig, C; Lawall, H; Ranft, J; Schenker, M; Schweizer, H J; Stiegler, H; Wilke, M

2003-11-01

DRG-based cost analysis of inpatient conservative treatment of PAD stage III/IV BACKGROUND: In a prospective study carried out by the German Society of Angiology and the DRG Competence Center, Munich, the question was investigated whether the costs of conservative treatment of patients with PAOD stage III/IV (DRG F65) are adequately represented within the current G-DRG system. METHODS UND PATIENTS: Between September 1 and December 16, 2002, a total of 704 patients with DRG F65 (peripheral vascular diseases) were evaluated at 8 angiologic centers in Germany. Apart from the length of hospital stay, the total costs (cost equivalents) were calculated using a method developed by the DRG Research Group at the University of Münster. Moreover, the study population was compared with a German calculation sample for the DRGs F65A/B, as published by InEK. As it turned out, conservatively treated patients with PAOD stage III or IV (DRGs F65A/B) cause significantly (p < 0.001) higher costs and have significantly (p < 0.001) greater lengths of hospital stay than patients who were also assigned to DRG F65 because of other vascular diseases. At the same time it became clear that angiologic centers treat twice as many patients with critical limb ischemia in comparison with the German average. The reimbursement hitherto estimated by InEK covers not even half the cost actually produced by conservative treatment of PAD stage III/IV. To ensure a performance-related reimbursement, a new basis DRG for patients with PAD stage III/IV has to be created, as has ben proposed by the German Society of Angiology. Otherwise, adequate conservative therapy in accordance with existing guidelines, of patients who cannot be treated surgically or interventionally will not be possible any more in the future.

Ecoregion-Based Conservation Planning in the Mediterranean: Dealing with Large-Scale Heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Sini, Maria; Gerovasileiou, Vasilis; Mazor, Tessa; Beher, Jutta; Possingham, Hugh P.; Abdulla, Ameer; Çinar, Melih Ertan; Dendrinos, Panagiotis; Gucu, Ali Cemal; Karamanlidis, Alexandros A.; Rodic, Petra; Panayotidis, Panayotis; Taskin, Ergun; Jaklin, Andrej; Voultsiadou, Eleni; Webster, Chloë; Zenetos, Argyro; Katsanevakis, Stelios

2013-01-01

Spatial priorities for the conservation of three key Mediterranean habitats, i.e. seagrass Posidonia oceanica meadows, coralligenous formations, and marine caves, were determined through a systematic planning approach. Available information on the distribution of these habitats across the entire Mediterranean Sea was compiled to produce basin-scale distribution maps. Conservation targets for each habitat type were set according to European Union guidelines. Surrogates were used to estimate the spatial variation of opportunity cost for commercial, non-commercial fishing, and aquaculture. Marxan conservation planning software was used to evaluate the comparative utility of two planning scenarios: (a) a whole-basin scenario, referring to selection of priority areas across the whole Mediterranean Sea, and (b) an ecoregional scenario, in which priority areas were selected within eight predefined ecoregions. Although both scenarios required approximately the same total area to be protected in order to achieve conservation targets, the opportunity cost differed between them. The whole-basin scenario yielded a lower opportunity cost, but the Alboran Sea ecoregion was not represented and priority areas were predominantly located in the Ionian, Aegean, and Adriatic Seas. In comparison, the ecoregional scenario resulted in a higher representation of ecoregions and a more even distribution of priority areas, albeit with a higher opportunity cost. We suggest that planning at the ecoregional level ensures better representativeness of the selected conservation features and adequate protection of species, functional, and genetic diversity across the basin. While there are several initiatives that identify priority areas in the Mediterranean Sea, our approach is novel as it combines three issues: (a) it is based on the distribution of habitats and not species, which was rarely the case in previous efforts, (b) it considers spatial variability of cost throughout this socioeconomically heterogeneous basin, and (c) it adopts ecoregions as the most appropriate level for large-scale planning. PMID:24155901

Effects of life-history requirements on the distribution of a threatened reptile.

PubMed

Thompson, Denise M; Ligon, Day B; Patton, Jason C; Papeş, Monica

2017-04-01

Survival and reproduction are the two primary life-history traits essential for species' persistence; however, the environmental conditions that support each of these traits may not be the same. Despite this, reproductive requirements are seldom considered when estimating species' potential distributions. We sought to examine potentially limiting environmental factors influencing the distribution of an oviparous reptile of conservation concern with respect to the species' survival and reproduction and to assess the implications of the species' predicted climatic constraints on current conservation practices. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the probability of environmental suitability for the alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii). We built an annual climate model to examine survival and a nesting climate model to examine reproduction. We combined incubation temperature requirements, products of modeled soil temperature data, and our estimated distributions to determine whether embryonic development constrained the northern distribution of the species. Low annual precipitation constrained the western distribution of alligator snapping turtles, whereas the northern distribution was constrained by thermal requirements during embryonic development. Only a portion of the geographic range predicted to have a high probability of suitability for alligator snapping turtle survival was estimated to be capable of supporting successful embryonic development. Historic occurrence records suggest adult alligator snapping turtles can survive in regions with colder climes than those associated with consistent and successful production of offspring. Estimated egg-incubation requirements indicated that current reintroductions at the northern edge of the species' range are within reproductively viable environmental conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering survival and reproduction when estimating species' ecological niches, implicating conservation plans, and benefits of incorporating physiological data when evaluating species' distributions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Estimating soil erosion risk and evaluating erosion control measures for soil conservation planning at Koga watershed in the highlands of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molla, Tegegne; Sisheber, Biniam

2017-01-01

Soil erosion is one of the major factors affecting sustainability of agricultural production in Ethiopia. The objective of this paper is to estimate soil erosion using the universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model and to evaluate soil conservation practices in a data-scarce watershed region. For this purpose, soil data, rainfall, erosion control practices, satellite images and topographic maps were collected to determine the RUSLE factors. In addition, measurements of randomly selected soil and water conservation structures were done at three sub-watersheds (Asanat, Debreyakob and Rim). This study was conducted in Koga watershed at upper part of the Blue Nile basin which is affected by high soil erosion rates. The area is characterized by undulating topography caused by intensive agricultural practices with poor soil conservation practices. The soil loss rates were determined and conservation strategies have been evaluated under different slope classes and land uses. The results showed that the watershed is affected by high soil erosion rates (on average 42 t ha-1 yr-1), greater than the maximum tolerable soil loss (18 t ha-1 yr-1). The highest soil loss (456 t ha-1 yr-1) estimated from the upper watershed occurred on cultivated lands of steep slopes. As a result, soil erosion is mainly aggravated by land-use conflicts and topographic factors and the rugged topographic land forms of the area. The study also demonstrated that the contribution of existing soil conservation structures to erosion control is very small due to incorrect design and poor management. About 35 % out of the existing structures can reduce soil loss significantly since they were constructed correctly. Most of the existing structures were demolished due to the sediment overload, vulnerability to livestock damage and intense rainfall. Therefore, appropriate and standardized soil and water conservation measures for different erosion-prone land uses and land forms need to be implemented in Koga watershed.

Comparison of modeling approaches for carbon partitioning: Impact on estimates of global net primary production and equilibrium biomass of woody vegetation from MODIS GPP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ise, Takeshi; Litton, Creighton M.; Giardina, Christian P.; Ito, Akihiko

2010-12-01

Partitioning of gross primary production (GPP) to aboveground versus belowground, to growth versus respiration, and to short versus long-lived tissues exerts a strong influence on ecosystem structure and function, with potentially large implications for the global carbon budget. A recent meta-analysis of forest ecosystems suggests that carbon partitioning to leaves, stems, and roots varies consistently with GPP and that the ratio of net primary production (NPP) to GPP is conservative across environmental gradients. To examine influences of carbon partitioning schemes employed by global ecosystem models, we used this meta-analysis-based model and a satellite-based (MODIS) terrestrial GPP data set to estimate global woody NPP and equilibrium biomass, and then compared it to two process-based ecosystem models (Biome-BGC and VISIT) using the same GPP data set. We hypothesized that different carbon partitioning schemes would result in large differences in global estimates of woody NPP and equilibrium biomass. Woody NPP estimated by Biome-BGC and VISIT was 25% and 29% higher than the meta-analysis-based model for boreal forests, with smaller differences in temperate and tropics. Global equilibrium woody biomass, calculated from model-specific NPP estimates and a single set of tissue turnover rates, was 48 and 226 Pg C higher for Biome-BGC and VISIT compared to the meta-analysis-based model, reflecting differences in carbon partitioning to structural versus metabolically active tissues. In summary, we found that different carbon partitioning schemes resulted in large variations in estimates of global woody carbon flux and storage, indicating that stand-level controls on carbon partitioning are not yet accurately represented in ecosystem models.

Energy and Economic Impacts of U.S. Federal Energy and Water Conservation Standards Adopted From 1987 Through 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers, Stephen; Williams, Alison; Chan, Peter

This paper presents estimates of the key impacts of the energy and water conservation standards that have been adopted from 1987 through 2010. The standards covered include those set by legislation as well as standards adopted by DOE through rulemaking. We estimate that energy efficiency standards for consumer products and certain commercial and industrial equipment that have been adopted from 1987 through 2010 saved 3.0 quads in 2010, have had a cumulative energy savings of 25.9 quads through 2010 and will achieve cumulative energy savings of 158 quads over the period 1990-2070. Thus, the majority of the savings are stillmore » to come as products subject to standards enter the stock. Furthermore, the standards will have a cumulative net present value (NPV) of consumer benefit of between $851 billion and $1,103 billion, using 7 percent and 3 percent discount rates, respectively. In addition, we estimate the water conservation standards, together with those energy conservation standards that also save water, saved residential consumers 1.5 trillion gallons of water in 2010, have had cumulative water savings of 11.7 trillion gallons through 2010, and will achieve cumulative water savings by 2040 of 51.4 trillion gallons.« less

Protected Areas’ Impacts on Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: Examining Conservation – Development Interactions to Inform Planning

PubMed Central

Pfaff, Alexander; Robalino, Juan; Herrera, Diego; Sandoval, Catalina

2015-01-01

Protected areas are the leading forest conservation policy for species and ecoservices goals and they may feature in climate policy if countries with tropical forest rely on familiar tools. For Brazil's Legal Amazon, we estimate the average impact of protection upon deforestation and show how protected areas’ forest impacts vary significantly with development pressure. We use matching, i.e., comparisons that are apples-to-apples in observed land characteristics, to address the fact that protected areas (PAs) tend to be located on lands facing less pressure. Correcting for that location bias lowers our estimates of PAs’ forest impacts by roughly half. Further, it reveals significant variation in PA impacts along development-related dimensions: for example, the PAs that are closer to roads and the PAs closer to cities have higher impact. Planners have multiple conservation and development goals, and are constrained by cost, yet still conservation planning should reflect what our results imply about future impacts of PAs. PMID:26225922

Protected Areas' Impacts on Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: Examining Conservation-Development Interactions to Inform Planning.

PubMed

Pfaff, Alexander; Robalino, Juan; Herrera, Diego; Sandoval, Catalina

2015-01-01

Protected areas are the leading forest conservation policy for species and ecoservices goals and they may feature in climate policy if countries with tropical forest rely on familiar tools. For Brazil's Legal Amazon, we estimate the average impact of protection upon deforestation and show how protected areas' forest impacts vary significantly with development pressure. We use matching, i.e., comparisons that are apples-to-apples in observed land characteristics, to address the fact that protected areas (PAs) tend to be located on lands facing less pressure. Correcting for that location bias lowers our estimates of PAs' forest impacts by roughly half. Further, it reveals significant variation in PA impacts along development-related dimensions: for example, the PAs that are closer to roads and the PAs closer to cities have higher impact. Planners have multiple conservation and development goals, and are constrained by cost, yet still conservation planning should reflect what our results imply about future impacts of PAs.

How Effective Are Biodiversity Conservation Payments in Mexico?

PubMed Central

Costedoat, Sébastien; Corbera, Esteve; Ezzine-de-Blas, Driss; Honey-Rosés, Jordi; Baylis, Kathy; Castillo-Santiago, Miguel Angel

2015-01-01

We assess the additional forest cover protected by 13 rural communities located in the southern state of Chiapas, Mexico, as a result of the economic incentives received through the country's national program of payments for biodiversity conservation. We use spatially explicit data at the intra-community level to define a credible counterfactual of conservation outcomes. We use covariate-matching specifications associated with spatially explicit variables and difference-in-difference estimators to determine the treatment effect. We estimate that the additional conservation represents between 12 and 14.7 percent of forest area enrolled in the program in comparison to control areas. Despite this high degree of additionality, we also observe lack of compliance in some plots participating in the PES program. This lack of compliance casts doubt on the ability of payments alone to guarantee long-term additionality in context of high deforestation rates, even with an augmented program budget or extension of participation to communities not yet enrolled. PMID:25807118

A mass-energy preserving Galerkin FEM for the coupled nonlinear fractional Schrödinger equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guoyu; Huang, Chengming; Li, Meng

2018-04-01

We consider the numerical simulation of the coupled nonlinear space fractional Schrödinger equations. Based on the Galerkin finite element method in space and the Crank-Nicolson (CN) difference method in time, a fully discrete scheme is constructed. Firstly, we focus on a rigorous analysis of conservation laws for the discrete system. The definitions of discrete mass and energy here correspond with the original ones in physics. Then, we prove that the fully discrete system is uniquely solvable. Moreover, we consider the unconditionally convergent properties (that is to say, we complete the error estimates without any mesh ratio restriction). We derive L2-norm error estimates for the nonlinear equations and L^{∞}-norm error estimates for the linear equations. Finally, some numerical experiments are included showing results in agreement with the theoretical predictions.

New constraints on Mars rotation determined from radiometric tracking of the Opportunity Mars Exploration Rover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchynka, Petr; Folkner, William M.; Konopliv, Alex S.; Parker, Timothy J.; Park, Ryan S.; Le Maistre, Sebastien; Dehant, Veronique

2014-02-01

The Opportunity Mars Exploration Rover remained stationary between January and May 2012 in order to conserve solar energy for running its survival heaters during martian winter. While stationary, extra Doppler tracking was performed in order to allow an improved estimate of the martian precession rate. In this study, we determine Mars rotation by combining the new Opportunity tracking data with historic tracking data from the Viking and Pathfinder landers and tracking data from Mars orbiters (Mars Global Surveyor, Mars Odyssey and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter). The estimated rotation parameters are stable in cross-validation tests and compare well with previously published values. In particular, the Mars precession rate is estimated to be -7606.1 ± 3.5 mas/yr. A representation of Mars rotation as a series expansion based on the determined rotation parameters is provided.

A Comparison of Atmospheric Quantities Determined from Advanced WVR and Weather Analysis Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morabito, D.; Wu, L.; Slobin, S.

2017-05-01

Lower frequency bands used for deep space communications (e.g., 2.3 GHz and 8.4 GHz) are oversubscribed. Thus, NASA has become interested in using higher frequency bands (e.g., 26 GHz and 32 GHz) for telemetry, making use of the available wider bandwidth. However, these bands are more susceptible to atmospheric degradation. Currently, flight projects tend to be conservative in preparing their communications links by using worst-case or conservative assumptions, which result in nonoptimum data return. We previously explored the use of weather forecasting over different weather condition scenarios to determine more optimal values of atmospheric attenuation and atmospheric noise temperature for use in telecommunications link design. In this article, we present the results of a comparison of meteorological parameters (columnar water vapor and liquid water content) estimated from multifrequency Advanced Water Vapor Radiometer (AWVR) data with those estimated from weather analysis tools (FNL). We find that for the Deep Space Network's Goldstone and Madrid tracking sites, the statistics are in reasonable agreement between the two methods. We can then use the statistics of these quantities based on FNL runs to estimate statistics of atmospheric signal degradation for tracking sites that do not have the benefit of possessing multiyear WVR data sets, such as those of the NASA Near-Earth Network (NEN). The resulting statistics of atmospheric attenuation and atmospheric noise temperature increase can then be used in link budget calculations.

Evaluating Heterogeneous Conservation Effects of Forest Protection in Indonesia

PubMed Central

Shah, Payal; Baylis, Kathy

2015-01-01

Establishing legal protection for forest areas is the most common policy used to limit forest loss. This article evaluates the effectiveness of seven Indonesian forest protected areas introduced between 1999 and 2012. Specifically, we explore how the effectiveness of these parks varies over space. Protected areas have mixed success in preserving forest, and it is important for conservationists to understand where they work and where they do not. Observed differences in the estimated treatment effect of protection may be driven by several factors. Indonesia is particularly diverse, with the landscape, forest and forest threats varying greatly from region to region, and this diversity may drive differences in the effectiveness of protected areas in conserving forest. However, the observed variation may also be spurious and arise from differing degrees of bias in the estimated treatment effect over space. In this paper, we use a difference-in-differences approach comparing treated observations and matched controls to estimate the effect of each protected area. We then distinguish the true variation in protected area effectiveness from spurious variation driven by several sources of estimation bias. Based on our most flexible method that allows the data generating process to vary across space, we find that the national average effect of protection preserves an additional 1.1% of forest cover; however the effect of individual parks range from a decrease of 3.4% to an increase of 5.3% and the effect of most parks differ from the national average. Potential biases may affect estimates in two parks, but results consistently show Sebangau National Park is more effective while two parks are substantially less able to protect forest cover than the national average. PMID:26039754

Evaluating heterogeneous conservation effects of forest protection in Indonesia.

PubMed

Shah, Payal; Baylis, Kathy

2015-01-01

Establishing legal protection for forest areas is the most common policy used to limit forest loss. This article evaluates the effectiveness of seven Indonesian forest protected areas introduced between 1999 and 2012. Specifically, we explore how the effectiveness of these parks varies over space. Protected areas have mixed success in preserving forest, and it is important for conservationists to understand where they work and where they do not. Observed differences in the estimated treatment effect of protection may be driven by several factors. Indonesia is particularly diverse, with the landscape, forest and forest threats varying greatly from region to region, and this diversity may drive differences in the effectiveness of protected areas in conserving forest. However, the observed variation may also be spurious and arise from differing degrees of bias in the estimated treatment effect over space. In this paper, we use a difference-in-differences approach comparing treated observations and matched controls to estimate the effect of each protected area. We then distinguish the true variation in protected area effectiveness from spurious variation driven by several sources of estimation bias. Based on our most flexible method that allows the data generating process to vary across space, we find that the national average effect of protection preserves an additional 1.1% of forest cover; however the effect of individual parks range from a decrease of 3.4% to an increase of 5.3% and the effect of most parks differ from the national average. Potential biases may affect estimates in two parks, but results consistently show Sebangau National Park is more effective while two parks are substantially less able to protect forest cover than the national average.

Age-specific survival of male golden-cheeked warblers on the Fort Hood Military Reservation, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duarte, Adam; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Hatfield, Jeffrey S.; Weckerly, Floyd W.

2014-01-01

Population models are essential components of large-scale conservation and management plans for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia; hereafter GCWA). However, existing models are based on vital rate estimates calculated using relatively small data sets that are now more than a decade old. We estimated more current, precise adult and juvenile apparent survival (Φ) probabilities and their associated variances for male GCWAs. In addition to providing estimates for use in population modeling, we tested hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation in Φ. We assessed whether a linear trend in Φ or a change in the overall mean Φ corresponded to an observed increase in GCWA abundance during 1992-2000 and if Φ varied among study plots. To accomplish these objectives, we analyzed long-term GCWA capture-resight data from 1992 through 2011, collected across seven study plots on the Fort Hood Military Reservation using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model structure within program MARK. We also estimated Φ process and sampling variances using a variance-components approach. Our results did not provide evidence of site-specific variation in adult Φ on the installation. Because of a lack of data, we could not assess whether juvenile Φ varied spatially. We did not detect a strong temporal association between GCWA abundance and Φ. Mean estimates of Φ for adult and juvenile male GCWAs for all years analyzed were 0.47 with a process variance of 0.0120 and a sampling variance of 0.0113 and 0.28 with a process variance of 0.0076 and a sampling variance of 0.0149, respectively. Although juvenile Φ did not differ greatly from previous estimates, our adult Φ estimate suggests previous GCWA population models were overly optimistic with respect to adult survival. These updated Φ probabilities and their associated variances will be incorporated into new population models to assist with GCWA conservation decision making.

Grizzly Bear Noninvasive Genetic Tagging Surveys: Estimating the Magnitude of Missed Detections

PubMed Central

Fisher, Jason T.; Heim, Nicole; Code, Sandra; Paczkowski, John

2016-01-01

Sound wildlife conservation decisions require sound information, and scientists increasingly rely on remotely collected data over large spatial scales, such as noninvasive genetic tagging (NGT). Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), for example, are difficult to study at population scales except with noninvasive data, and NGT via hair trapping informs management over much of grizzly bears’ range. Considerable statistical effort has gone into estimating sources of heterogeneity, but detection error–arising when a visiting bear fails to leave a hair sample–has not been independently estimated. We used camera traps to survey grizzly bear occurrence at fixed hair traps and multi-method hierarchical occupancy models to estimate the probability that a visiting bear actually leaves a hair sample with viable DNA. We surveyed grizzly bears via hair trapping and camera trapping for 8 monthly surveys at 50 (2012) and 76 (2013) sites in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. We used multi-method occupancy models to estimate site occupancy, probability of detection, and conditional occupancy at a hair trap. We tested the prediction that detection error in NGT studies could be induced by temporal variability within season, leading to underestimation of occupancy. NGT via hair trapping consistently underestimated grizzly bear occupancy at a site when compared to camera trapping. At best occupancy was underestimated by 50%; at worst, by 95%. Probability of false absence was reduced through successive surveys, but this mainly accounts for error imparted by movement among repeated surveys, not necessarily missed detections by extant bears. The implications of missed detections and biased occupancy estimates for density estimation–which form the crux of management plans–require consideration. We suggest hair-trap NGT studies should estimate and correct detection error using independent survey methods such as cameras, to ensure the reliability of the data upon which species management and conservation actions are based. PMID:27603134

Ex situ conservation of plant diversity in the world's botanic gardens.

PubMed

Mounce, Ross; Smith, Paul; Brockington, Samuel

2017-10-01

Botanic gardens conserve plant diversity ex situ and can prevent extinction through integrated conservation action. Here we quantify how that diversity is conserved in ex situ collections across the world's botanic gardens. We reveal that botanic gardens manage at least 105,634 species, equating to 30% of all plant species diversity, and conserve over 41% of known threatened species. However, we also reveal that botanic gardens are disproportionately temperate, with 93% of species held in the Northern Hemisphere. Consequently, an estimated 76% of species absent from living collections are tropical in origin. Furthermore, phylogenetic bias ensures that over 50% of vascular genera, but barely 5% of non-vascular genera, are conserved ex situ. While botanic gardens are discernibly responding to the threat of species extinction, just 10% of network capacity is devoted to threatened species. We conclude that botanic gardens play a fundamental role in plant conservation, but identify actions to enhance future conservation of biodiversity.

[Quantitative estimation of vegetation cover and management factor in USLE and RUSLE models by using remote sensing data: a review].

PubMed

Wu, Chang-Guang; Li, Sheng; Ren, Hua-Dong; Yao, Xiao-Hua; Huang, Zi-Jie

2012-06-01

Soil loss prediction models such as universal soil loss equation (USLE) and its revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) are the useful tools for risk assessment of soil erosion and planning of soil conservation at regional scale. To make a rational estimation of vegetation cover and management factor, the most important parameters in USLE or RUSLE, is particularly important for the accurate prediction of soil erosion. The traditional estimation based on field survey and measurement is time-consuming, laborious, and costly, and cannot rapidly extract the vegetation cover and management factor at macro-scale. In recent years, the development of remote sensing technology has provided both data and methods for the estimation of vegetation cover and management factor over broad geographic areas. This paper summarized the research findings on the quantitative estimation of vegetation cover and management factor by using remote sensing data, and analyzed the advantages and the disadvantages of various methods, aimed to provide reference for the further research and quantitative estimation of vegetation cover and management factor at large scale.

Ecology and thermal inactivation of microbes in and on interplanetary space vehicle components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reyes, A. L.; Campbell, J. E.

1976-01-01

The heat resistance of Bacillus subtilis var. niger was measured from 85 to 125 C using moisture levels of % RH or = 0.001 to 100. Curves are presented which characterize thermal destruction using thermal death times defined as F values at a given combination of three moisture and temperature conditions. The times required at 100 C for reductions of 99.99% of the initial population were estimated for the three moisture conditions. The linear model (from which estimates of D are obtained) was satisfactory for estimating thermal death times (% RH or = 0.07) in the plate count range. Estimates based on observed thermal death times and D values for % RH = 100 diverged so that D values generally gave a more conservative estimate over the temperature range 90 to 125 C. Estimates of Z sub F and Z sub L ranged from 32.1 to 58.3 C for % RH of or = 0.07 and 100. A Z sub D = 30.0 was obtained for data observed at % RH or = 0.07.

Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

2017-12-22

Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting predictions with genetic measurements, is a general, applicable strategy that can be used to inform conservation practice. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

A collaborative approach for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Jason I.; Kaczensky, Petra; Lubow, Bruce C.; Ganbaatar, Oyunsaikhan; Altansukh, Nanjid

2012-01-01

Accurately estimating abundance of wildlife is critical for establishing effective conservation and management strategies. Aerial methodologies for estimating abundance are common in developed countries, but they are often impractical for remote areas of developing countries where many of the world's endangered and threatened fauna exist. The alternative terrestrial methodologies can be constrained by limitations on access, technology, and human resources, and have rarely been comprehensively conducted for large terrestrial mammals at landscape scales. We attempted to overcome these problems by incorporating local peoples into a simultaneous point count of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) and goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) across the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia. Paired observers collected abundance and covariate metrics at 50 observation points and we estimated population sizes using distance sampling theory, but also assessed individual observer error to examine potential bias introduced by the large number of minimally trained observers. We estimated 5671 (95% CI = 3611–8907) wild asses and 5909 (95% CI = 3762–9279) gazelle inhabited the 11,027 km2 study area at the time of our survey and found that the methodology developed was robust at absorbing the logistical challenges and wide range of observer abilities. This initiative serves as a functional model for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance while integrating local people into scientific and conservation projects. This, in turn, creates vested interest in conservation by the people who are most influential in, and most affected by, the outcomes.

Evolution of the SCS curve number method and its applications to continuous runoff simulation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) [previously Soil Conservation Service (SCS)] developed the SCS runoff curve-number (CN) method for estimating direct runoff from storm rainfall. The NRCS uses the CN method for designing structures and for evaluating their effectiveness. Structural...

P3 DESIGN OF A NATIONAL ELECTRONICS PRODUCT REUSE AND RECYCLING SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Material and resource conservation are critical to sustainability; and, the ability to efficiently and effectively recover old products for reuse and recycle is an essential element in these conservation efforts. In California alone, it has been estimated that 10,000 computers a...

78 FR 25627 - Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy Conservation Standards for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-02

...-fired furnaces, Underwriters Laboratories (UL) Standard 727-1994, ``Standard for Safety for Oil-Fired... supplementary method called a catalog teardown (or ``virtual teardown'') uses published manufacturer catalogs... similar products and in manufacturer literature and information, to estimate the costs using virtual...

Curve numbers for no-till: field data versus standard tables

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Curve Number procedure developed by Soil Conservation Service (Now Natural Resources Conservation Service) in the mid-1950s for estimating direct runoff from rainstorms has not been extensively tested in cropping systems under no-till. Analysis of CNs using the frequency matching and asymptotic ...

18 CFR 284.270 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Reporting requirements. 284.270 Section 284.270 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION...; (4) The estimated total amount and average daily amount of emergency natural gas to be purchased...

18 CFR 284.270 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Reporting requirements. 284.270 Section 284.270 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... the emergency; (4) The estimated total amount and average daily amount of emergency natural gas to be...

18 CFR 284.270 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Reporting requirements. 284.270 Section 284.270 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION...; (4) The estimated total amount and average daily amount of emergency natural gas to be purchased...

18 CFR 284.270 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Reporting requirements. 284.270 Section 284.270 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... the emergency; (4) The estimated total amount and average daily amount of emergency natural gas to be...

18 CFR 284.270 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Reporting requirements. 284.270 Section 284.270 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... the emergency; (4) The estimated total amount and average daily amount of emergency natural gas to be...

Examining the Extinction of the Barbary Lion and Its Implications for Felid Conservation

PubMed Central

Black, Simon A.; Fellous, Amina; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Roberts, David L.

2013-01-01

Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa. PMID:23573239

Examining the extinction of the Barbary lion and its implications for felid conservation.

PubMed

Black, Simon A; Fellous, Amina; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Roberts, David L

2013-01-01

Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.

Weldon Spring Site environmental report for calendar year 1993. Weldon Springs Site Remedial Action Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-05-01

This Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 1993 describes the environmental monitoring programs at the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project (WSSRAP). The objectives of these programs are to assess actual or potential exposure to contaminant effluents from the project area by providing public use scenarios and dose estimates, to demonstrate compliance with Federal and State permitted levels, and to summarize trends and/or changes in contaminant concentrations from environmental monitoring program. In 1993, the maximum committed dose to a hypothetical individual at the chemical plant site perimeter was 0.03 mrem (0.0003 mSv). The maximum committed dose to a hypothetical individualmore » at the boundary of the Weldon Spring Quarry was 1.9 mrem (0.019 mSv). These scenarios assume an individual walking along the perimeter of the site-once a day at the chemical plant/raffinate pits and twice a day at the quarry-250 days per year. This hypothetical individual also consumes fish, sediment, and water from lakes and other bodies of water in the area. The collective dose, based on an effected population of 112,000 was 0.12 person-rem (0.0012 person-Sv). This calculation is based on recreational use of the August A. Busch Memorial Conservation Area and the Missouri Department of Conservation recreational trail (the Katy Trail) near the quarry. These estimates are below the U.S. Department of Energy requirement of 100 mrem (I mSv) annual committed effective dose equivalent for all exposure pathways. Results from air monitoring for the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) program indicated that the estimated dose was 0.38 mrem, which is below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standard of 10 mrem per year.« less

The management and outcomes of placenta accreta, increta, and percreta in the UK: a population-based descriptive study

PubMed Central

Fitzpatrick, KE; Sellers, S; Spark, P; Kurinczuk, JJ; Brocklehurst, P; Knight, M

2014-01-01

Objective To describe the management and outcomes of placenta accreta, increta, and percreta in the UK. Design A population-based descriptive study using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS). Setting All 221 UK hospitals with obstetrician-led maternity units. Population All women diagnosed with placenta accreta, increta, and percreta in the UK between May 2010 and April 2011. Methods Prospective case identification through the monthly mailing of UKOSS. Main outcome measures Median estimated blood loss, transfusion requirements. Results A cohort of 134 women were identified with placenta accreta, increta, or percreta: 50% (66/133) were suspected to have this condition antenatally. In women with a final diagnosis of placenta increta or percreta, antenatal diagnosis was associated with reduced levels of haemorrhage (median estimated blood loss 2750 versus 6100 ml, P = 0.008) and a reduced need for blood transfusion (59 versus 94%, P = 0.014), possibly because antenatally diagnosed women were more likely to have preventative therapies for haemorrhage (74 versus 52%, P = 0.007), and were less likely to have an attempt made to remove their placenta (59 versus 93%, P < 0.001). Making no attempt to remove any of the placenta, in an attempt to conserve the uterus or prior to hysterectomy, was associated with reduced levels of haemorrhage (median estimated blood loss 1750 versus 3700 ml, P = 0.001) and a reduced need for blood transfusion (57 versus 86%, P < 0.001). Conclusions Women with placenta accreta, increta, or percreta who have no attempt to remove any of their placenta, with the aim of conserving their uterus, or prior to hysterectomy, have reduced levels of haemorrhage and a reduced need for blood transfusion, supporting the recommendation of this practice. PMID:23924326

The management and outcomes of placenta accreta, increta, and percreta in the UK: a population-based descriptive study.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, K E; Sellers, S; Spark, P; Kurinczuk, J J; Brocklehurst, P; Knight, M

2014-01-01

To describe the management and outcomes of placenta accreta, increta, and percreta in the UK. A population-based descriptive study using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS). All 221 UK hospitals with obstetrician-led maternity units. All women diagnosed with placenta accreta, increta, and percreta in the UK between May 2010 and April 2011. Prospective case identification through the monthly mailing of UKOSS. Median estimated blood loss, transfusion requirements. A cohort of 134 women were identified with placenta accreta, increta, or percreta: 50% (66/133) were suspected to have this condition antenatally. In women with a final diagnosis of placenta increta or percreta, antenatal diagnosis was associated with reduced levels of haemorrhage (median estimated blood loss 2750 versus 6100 ml, P = 0.008) and a reduced need for blood transfusion (59 versus 94%, P = 0.014), possibly because antenatally diagnosed women were more likely to have preventative therapies for haemorrhage (74 versus 52%, P = 0.007), and were less likely to have an attempt made to remove their placenta (59 versus 93%, P < 0.001). Making no attempt to remove any of the placenta, in an attempt to conserve the uterus or prior to hysterectomy, was associated with reduced levels of haemorrhage (median estimated blood loss 1750 versus 3700 ml, P = 0.001) and a reduced need for blood transfusion (57 versus 86%, P < 0.001). Women with placenta accreta, increta, or percreta who have no attempt to remove any of their placenta, with the aim of conserving their uterus, or prior to hysterectomy, have reduced levels of haemorrhage and a reduced need for blood transfusion, supporting the recommendation of this practice. © 2013 RCOG.

The Use of Mixed Effects Models for Obtaining Low-Cost Ecosystem Carbon Stock Estimates in Mangroves of the Asia-Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bukoski, J. J.; Broadhead, J. S.; Donato, D.; Murdiyarso, D.; Gregoire, T. G.

2016-12-01

Mangroves provide extensive ecosystem services that support both local livelihoods and international environmental goals, including coastal protection, water filtration, biodiversity conservation and the sequestration of carbon (C). While voluntary C market projects that seek to preserve and enhance forest C stocks offer a potential means of generating finance for mangrove conservation, their implementation faces barriers due to the high costs of quantifying C stocks through measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) activities. To streamline MRV activities in mangrove C forestry projects, we develop predictive models for (i) biomass-based C stocks, and (ii) soil-based C stocks for the mangroves of the Asia-Pacific. We use linear mixed effect models to account for spatial correlation in modeling the expected C as a function of stand attributes. The most parsimonious biomass model predicts total biomass C stocks as a function of both basal area and the interaction between latitude and basal area, whereas the most parsimonious soil C model predicts soil C stocks as a function of the logarithmic transformations of both latitude and basal area. Random effects are specified by site for both models, and are found to explain a substantial proportion of variance within the estimation datasets. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the biomass C model is approximated at 24.6 Mg/ha (18.4% of mean biomass C in the dataset), whereas the RMSE of the soil C model is estimated at 4.9 mg C/cm 3 (14.1% of mean soil C). A substantial proportion of the variation in soil C, however, is explained by the random effects and thus the use of the SOC model may be most valuable for sites in which field measurements of soil C exist.

Using neutral, selected, and hitchhiker loci to assess connectivity of marine populations in the genomic era

PubMed Central

Gagnaire, Pierre-Alexandre; Broquet, Thomas; Aurelle, Didier; Viard, Frédérique; Souissi, Ahmed; Bonhomme, François; Arnaud-Haond, Sophie; Bierne, Nicolas

2015-01-01

Estimating the rate of exchange of individuals among populations is a central concern to evolutionary ecology and its applications to conservation and management. For instance, the efficiency of protected areas in sustaining locally endangered populations and ecosystems depends on reserve network connectivity. The population genetics theory offers a powerful framework for estimating dispersal distances and migration rates from molecular data. In the marine realm, however, decades of molecular studies have met limited success in inferring genetic connectivity, due to the frequent lack of spatial genetic structure in species exhibiting high fecundity and dispersal capabilities. This is especially true within biogeographic regions bounded by well-known hotspots of genetic differentiation. Here, we provide an overview of the current methods for estimating genetic connectivity using molecular markers and propose several directions for improving existing approaches using large population genomic datasets. We highlight several issues that limit the effectiveness of methods based on neutral markers when there is virtually no genetic differentiation among samples. We then focus on alternative methods based on markers influenced by selection. Although some of these methodologies are still underexplored, our aim was to stimulate new research to test how broadly they are applicable to nonmodel marine species. We argue that the increased ability to apply the concepts of cline analyses will improve dispersal inferences across physical and ecological barriers that reduce connectivity locally. We finally present how neutral markers hitchhiking with selected loci can also provide information about connectivity patterns within apparently well-mixed biogeographic regions. We contend that one of the most promising applications of population genomics is the use of outlier loci to delineate relevant conservation units and related eco-geographic features across which connectivity can be measured. PMID:26366195

Body fatness or anthropometry for assessment of unhealthy weight status? Comparison between methods in South African children and adolescents.

PubMed

Craig, Eva; Reilly, John; Bland, Ruth

2013-11-01

A variety of methods are available for defining undernutrition (thinness/underweight/under-fat) and overnutrition (overweight/obesity/over-fat). The extent to which these definitions agree is unclear. The present cross-sectional study aimed to assess agreement between widely used methods of assessing nutritional status in children and adolescents, and to examine the benefit of body composition estimates. The main objective of the cross-sectional study was to assess underweight, overweight and obesity using four methods: (i) BMI-for-age using WHO (2007) reference data; (ii) BMI-for-age using Cole et al. and International Obesity Taskforce cut-offs; (iii) weight-for-age using the National Centre for Health Statistics/WHO growth reference 1977; and (iv) body fat percentage estimated by bio-impedance (body fat reference curves for children of McCarthy et al., 2006). Comparisons were made between methods using weighted kappa analyses. Rural South Africa. Individuals (n 1519) in three age groups (school grade 1, mean age 7 years; grade 5, mean age 11 years; grade 9, mean age 15 years). In boys, prevalence of unhealthy weight status (both under- and overnutrition) was much higher at all ages with body fatness measures than with simple anthropometric proxies for body fatness; agreement between fatness and weight-based measures was fair or slight using Landis and Koch categories. In girls, prevalence of unhealthy weight status was also higher with body fatness than with proxies, although agreement between measures ranged from fair to substantial. Methods for defining under- and overnutrition should not be considered equivalent. Weight-based measures provide highly conservative estimates of unhealthy weight status, possibly more conservative in boys. Simple body composition measures may be more informative than anthropometry for nutritional surveillance of children and adolescents.

Multi-species genetic connectivity in a terrestrial habitat network.

PubMed

Marrotte, Robby R; Bowman, Jeff; Brown, Michael G C; Cordes, Chad; Morris, Kimberley Y; Prentice, Melanie B; Wilson, Paul J

2017-01-01

Habitat fragmentation reduces genetic connectivity for multiple species, yet conservation efforts tend to rely heavily on single-species connectivity estimates to inform land-use planning. Such conservation activities may benefit from multi-species connectivity estimates, which provide a simple and practical means to mitigate the effects of habitat fragmentation for a larger number of species. To test the validity of a multi-species connectivity model, we used neutral microsatellite genetic datasets of Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis ), American marten ( Martes americana ), fisher ( Pekania pennanti ), and southern flying squirrel ( Glaucomys volans ) to evaluate multi-species genetic connectivity across Ontario, Canada. We used linear models to compare node-based estimates of genetic connectivity for each species to point-based estimates of landscape connectivity (current density) derived from circuit theory. To our knowledge, we are the first to evaluate current density as a measure of genetic connectivity. Our results depended on landscape context: habitat amount was more important than current density in explaining multi-species genetic connectivity in the northern part of our study area, where habitat was abundant and fragmentation was low. In the south however, where fragmentation was prevalent, genetic connectivity was correlated with current density. Contrary to our expectations however, locations with a high probability of movement as reflected by high current density were negatively associated with gene flow. Subsequent analyses of circuit theory outputs showed that high current density was also associated with high effective resistance, underscoring that the presence of pinch points is not necessarily indicative of gene flow. Overall, our study appears to provide support for the hypothesis that landscape pattern is important when habitat amount is low. We also conclude that while current density is proportional to the probability of movement per unit area, this does not imply increased gene flow, since high current density tends to be a result of neighbouring pixels with high cost of movement (e.g., low habitat amount). In other words, pinch points with high current density appear to constrict gene flow.

Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aylward, C.M.; Murdoch, J.D.; Donovan, Therese M.; Kilpatrick, C.W.; Bernier, C.; Katz, J.

2018-01-01

The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare species and provide tools for planning marten recovery in the northeastern United States.

Primary care physicians' perceived barriers, facilitators and strategies to enhance conservative care for older adults with chronic kidney disease: a qualitative descriptive study.

PubMed

Tam-Tham, Helen; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R; Campbell, David J T; Thomas, Chandra M; Fruetel, Karen; Quinn, Robert R; King-Shier, Kathryn M

2016-11-01

Although primary care physicians (PCPs) are often responsible for the routine care of older adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD), there is a paucity of evidence regarding their perspectives and practice of conservative (non-dialysis) care. We undertook a qualitative study to describe barriers, facilitators and strategies to enhance conservative, non-dialysis, CKD care by PCPs in the community. Semi-structured telephone and face-to-face interviews were conducted with PCPs from Alberta, Canada. Participants were identified using a snowball sampling strategy and purposively sampled based on sex, age and rural/urban location of clinical practice. Eligible participants had managed at least one patient ≥75 years with Stage 5 CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , not on dialysis) in the prior year. Participant recruitment ceased when data saturation was reached. Transcripts were analyzed thematically using conventional content analysis. In total, 27 PCPs were interviewed. The majority were male (15/27), were aged 40-60 years (15/27) and had practiced in primary care for >20 years (14/27). Perceived barriers to conservative CKD care included: managing expectations of kidney failure for patients and their families; dealing with the complexity of medical management of patients requiring conservative care; and challenges associated with managing patients jointly with specialists. Factors that facilitated conservative CKD care included: establishing patient/family expectations early; preserving continuity of care; and utilizing a multidisciplinary team approach. Suggested strategies for improving conservative care included having: direct telephone access to clinicians familiar with conservative care; treatment decision aids for patients and their families; and a conservative care clinical pathway to guide management. PCPs identified important barriers and facilitators to conservative care for their older patients with Stage 5 CKD. Further investigation of potential strategies that address barriers and enable facilitators is required to improve the quality of conservative care for older adults in the community. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Conservative management of post-partum hemorrhage secondary to placenta previa-accreta with hypogastric artery ligation and endo-uterine hemostatic suture.

PubMed

Rauf, Melekoglu; Ebru, Celik; Sevil, Eraslan; Selim, Buyukkurt

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to investigate maternal and neonatal outcomes of conservative management of post-partum hemorrhage due to placenta previa-accreta using hypogastric artery ligation and endo-uterine hemostatic suture to lower uterine segment. The records of 38 patients who were managed conservatively with hypogastric artery ligation and endo-uterine hemostatic suture to control post-partum hemorrhage secondary to placenta previa-accreta between April 2014 and January 2016, were reviewed retrospectively. Placenta previa-accreta was diagnosed according to gray-scale, color and 3-D power Doppler ultrasonography in addition to the intraoperative findings based on fragmentary or difficult separation of the placenta. In the case of conservative treatment protocol failure, cesarean hysterectomy was performed. Of these patients, 55.2% were between 25 and 35 years old; 97.5% were multiparous; 71.2% had two or more previous cesarean section and 68.5% had preterm delivery. Women with placenta accreta had a median estimated blood loss of 450 mL; 57.8% of patients had blood transfusion (mean intraoperative transfusion, 2 units packed red blood cells; range, 0-9 units). Median duration of operation was 112.5 min (range, 45-305 min) and 32 patients (84.3%) with placenta accreta did not undergo cesarean hysterectomy. Conservative treatment of post-partum hemorrhage secondary to placenta previa-accreta with hypogastric artery ligation and endo-uterine hemostatic sutures to the lower segment of the uterus is associated with lower hysterectomy rate compared with the other conservative methods reported in the literature. © 2016 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Residential energy efficiency: Progress since 1973 and future potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenfeld, Arthur H.

1985-11-01

Today's 85 million U.S. homes use 100 billion of fuel and electricity (1150/home). If their energy intensity (resource energy/ft2) were still frozen at 1973 levels, they would use 18% more. With well-insulated houses, need for space heat is vanishing. Superinsulated Saskatchewan homes spend annually only 270 for space heat, 150 for water heat, and 400 for appliances, yet they cost only 2000±1000 more than conventional new homes. The concept of Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) is used to rank conservation technologies for existing and new homes and appliances, and to develop supply curves of conserved energy and a least cost scenario. Calculations are calibrated with the BECA and other data bases. By limiting investments in efficiency to those whose CCE is less than current fuel and electricity prices, the potential residential plus commercial energy use in 2000 AD drops to half of that estimated by DOE, and the number of power plants needed drops by 200. For the whole buildings sector, potential savings by 2000 are 8 Mbod (worth 50B/year), at an average CCE of 10/barrel.

Prioritizing landscapes for longleaf pine conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grand, James B.; Kleiner, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

We developed a spatially explicit model and map, as a decision support tool (DST), to aid conservation agencies creating or maintaining open pine ecosystems. The tool identified areas that are likely to provide the greatest benefit to focal bird populations based on a comprehensive landscape analysis. We used NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and SEGAP data to map the density of desired resources for open pine ecosystems and six focal species of birds and 2 reptiles within the historic range of longleaf pine east of the Mississippi River. Binary rasters were created of sites with desired characteristics such as land form, hydrology, land use and land cover, soils, potential habitat for focal species, and putative source populations of focal species. Each raster was smoothed using a kernel density estimator. Rasters were combined and scaled to map priority locations for the management of each focal species. Species’ rasters were combined and scaled to provide maps of overall priority for birds and for birds and reptiles. The spatial data can be used to identify high priority areas for conservation or to compare areas under consideration for maintenance or creation of open pine ecosystems.

Role of genomics and transcriptomics in selection of reintroduction source populations.

PubMed

He, Xiaoping; Johansson, Mattias L; Heath, Daniel D

2016-10-01

The use and importance of reintroduction as a conservation tool to return a species to its historical range from which it has been extirpated will increase as climate change and human development accelerate habitat loss and population extinctions. Although the number of reintroduction attempts has increased rapidly over the past 2 decades, the success rate is generally low. As a result of population differences in fitness-related traits and divergent responses to environmental stresses, population performance upon reintroduction is highly variable, and it is generally agreed that selecting an appropriate source population is a critical component of a successful reintroduction. Conservation genomics is an emerging field that addresses long-standing challenges in conservation, and the potential for using novel molecular genetic approaches to inform and improve conservation efforts is high. Because the successful establishment and persistence of reintroduced populations is highly dependent on the functional genetic variation and environmental stress tolerance of the source population, we propose the application of conservation genomics and transcriptomics to guide reintroduction practices. Specifically, we propose using genome-wide functional loci to estimate genetic variation of source populations. This estimate can then be used to predict the potential for adaptation. We also propose using transcriptional profiling to measure the expression response of fitness-related genes to environmental stresses as a proxy for acclimation (tolerance) capacity. Appropriate application of conservation genomics and transcriptomics has the potential to dramatically enhance reintroduction success in a time of rapidly declining biodiversity and accelerating environmental change. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

M. L. Abbott; K. N. Keck; R. E. Schindler

This screening level risk assessment evaluates potential adverse human health and ecological impacts resulting from continued operations of the calciner at the New Waste Calcining Facility (NWCF) at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC), Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). The assessment was conducted in accordance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, Guidance for Performing Screening Level Risk Analyses at Combustion Facilities Burning Hazardous Waste. This screening guidance is intended to give a conservative estimate of the potential risks to determine whether a more refined assessment is warranted. The NWCF uses a fluidized-bed combustor to solidifymore » (calcine) liquid radioactive mixed waste from the INTEC Tank Farm facility. Calciner off volatilized metal species, trace organic compounds, and low-levels of radionuclides. Conservative stack emission rates were calculated based on maximum waste solution feed samples, conservative assumptions for off gas partitioning of metals and organics, stack gas sampling for mercury, and conservative measurements of contaminant removal (decontamination factors) in the off gas treatment system. Stack emissions were modeled using the ISC3 air dispersion model to predict maximum particulate and vapor air concentrations and ground deposition rates. Results demonstrate that NWCF emissions calculated from best-available process knowledge would result in maximum onsite and offsite health and ecological impacts that are less then EPA-established criteria for operation of a combustion facility.« less

Biodiversity inventories and conservation of the marine fishes of Bootless Bay, Papua New Guinea

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The effective management and conservation of biodiversity is predicated on clearly defined conservation targets. Species number is frequently used as a metric for conservation prioritization and monitoring changes in ecosystem health. We conducted a series of synoptic surveys focusing on the fishes of the Bootless Bay region of Papua New Guinea to generate a checklist of fishes of the region. Bootless Bay lies directly south of Port Moresby, the capital of Papua New Guinea, and experiences the highest human population density of any marine area in the country. Our checklist will set a baseline against which future environmental changes can be tracked. Results We generated a checklist of 488 fish species in 72 families found in Bootless Bay during a two-week sampling effort. Using incident-based methods of species estimation, we extrapolate there to be approximately 940 fish species in Bootless Bay, one of the lowest reported numbers in Papua New Guinea. Conclusions Our data suggest that the Bootless Bay ecosystem of Papua New Guinea, while diverse in absolute terms, has lower fish biodiversity compared to other shallow marine areas within the country. These differences in faunal diversity are most likely a combination of unequal sampling effort as well as biophysical factors within Bootless Bay compounded by historical and/or contemporary anthropogenic disturbances. PMID:22849436

Corn-Based Ethanol Production and Environmental Quality: A Case of Iowa and the Conservation Reserve Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Secchi, Silvia; Gassman, Philip W.; Williams, Jimmy R.; Babcock, Bruce A.

2009-10-01

Growing demand for corn due to the expansion of ethanol has increased concerns that environmentally sensitive lands retired from agricultural production and enrolled into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will be cropped again. Iowa produces more ethanol than any other state in the United States, and it also produces the most corn. Thus, an examination of the impacts of higher crop prices on CRP land in Iowa can give insight into what we might expect nationally in the years ahead if crop prices remain high. We construct CRP land supply curves for various corn prices and then estimate the environmental impacts of cropping CRP land through the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. EPIC provides edge-of-field estimates of soil erosion, nutrient loss, and carbon sequestration. We find that incremental impacts increase dramatically as higher corn prices bring into production more and more environmentally fragile land. Maintaining current levels of environmental quality will require substantially higher spending levels. Even allowing for the cost savings that would accrue as CRP land leaves the program, a change in targeting strategies will likely be required to ensure that the most sensitive land does not leave the program.

Colorectal Cancer Deaths Attributable to Nonuse of Screening in the United States

PubMed Central

Meester, Reinier G.S.; Doubeni, Chyke A.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Goede, S.L.; Levin, Theodore R.; Quinn, Virginia P.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Corley, Douglas A.; Zauber, Ann G.

2015-01-01

Purpose Screening is a major contributor to colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality reductions in the U.S., but is underutilized. We estimated the fraction of CRC deaths attributable to nonuse of screening to demonstrate the potential benefits from targeted interventions. Methods The established MISCAN-colon microsimulation model was used to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) in people aged ≥50 years. The model incorporates long-term patterns and effects of screening by age and type of screening test. PAF for 2010 was estimated using currently available data on screening uptake; PAF was also projected assuming constant future screening rates to incorporate lagged effects from past increases in screening uptake. We also computed PAF using Levin's formula to gauge how this simpler approach differs from the model-based approach. Results There were an estimated 51,500 CRC deaths in 2010, about 63% (N∼32,200) of which were attributable to non-screening. The PAF decreases slightly to 58% in 2020. Levin's approach yielded a considerably more conservative PAF of 46% (N∼23,600) for 2010. Conclusions The majority of current U.S. CRC deaths are attributable to non-screening. This underscores the potential benefits of increasing screening uptake in the population. Traditional methods of estimating PAF underestimated screening effects compared with model-based approaches. PMID:25721748

Study on SOC wavelet analysis for LiFePO4 battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xuepeng; Zhao, Dongmei

2017-08-01

Improving the prediction accuracy of SOC can reduce the complexity of the conservative and control strategy of the strategy such as the scheduling, optimization and planning of LiFePO4 battery system. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the SOC historical data and the external stress factors, the SOC Estimation-Correction Prediction Model based on wavelet analysis is established. Using wavelet neural network prediction model is of high precision to achieve forecast link, external stress measured data is used to update parameters estimation in the model, implement correction link, makes the forecast model can adapt to the LiFePO4 battery under rated condition of charge and discharge the operating point of the variable operation area. The test results show that the method can obtain higher precision prediction model when the input and output of LiFePO4 battery are changed frequently.

MEGASTAR: The meaning of growth. An assessment of systems, technologies, and requirements. [methodology for display and analysis of energy production and consumption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach methodology including the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption from the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario.

A data-based conservation planning tool for Florida panthers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murrow, Jennifer L.; Thatcher, Cindy A.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Clark, Joseph D.

2013-01-01

Habitat loss and fragmentation are the greatest threats to the endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi). We developed a data-based habitat model and user-friendly interface so that land managers can objectively evaluate Florida panther habitat. We used a geographic information system (GIS) and the Mahalanobis distance statistic (D2) to develop a model based on broad-scale landscape characteristics associated with panther home ranges. Variables in our model were Euclidean distance to natural land cover, road density, distance to major roads, human density, amount of natural land cover, amount of semi-natural land cover, amount of permanent or semi-permanent flooded area–open water, and a cost–distance variable. We then developed a Florida Panther Habitat Estimator tool, which automates and replicates the GIS processes used to apply the statistical habitat model. The estimator can be used by persons with moderate GIS skills to quantify effects of land-use changes on panther habitat at local and landscape scales. Example applications of the tool are presented.

CHELSI: a portable neutron spectrometer for the 20-800 MeV region.

PubMed

McLean, T D; Olsher, R H; Romero, L L; Miles, L H; Devine, R T; Fallu-Labruyere, A; Grudberg, P

2007-01-01

CHELSI is a CsI-based portable spectrometer being developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use in high-energy neutron fields. Based on the inherent pulse shape discrimination properties of CsI(Tl), the instrument flags charged particle events produced via neutron-induced spallation events. Scintillation events are processed in real time using digital signal processing and a conservative estimate of neutron dose rate is made based on the charged particle energy distribution. A more accurate dose estimate can be made by unfolding the 2D charged particle versus pulse height distribution to reveal the incident neutron spectrum from which dose is readily obtained. A prototype probe has been assembled and data collected in quasi-monoenergetic fields at The Svedberg Laboratory (TSL) in Uppsala as well as at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). Preliminary efforts at deconvoluting the shape/energy data using empirical response functions derived from time-of-flight measurements are described.

How many records should be used in ASCE/SEI-7 ground motion scaling procedure?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reyes, Juan C.; Kalkan, Erol

2012-01-01

U.S. national building codes refer to the ASCE/SEI-7 provisions for selecting and scaling ground motions for use in nonlinear response history analysis of structures. Because the limiting values for the number of records in the ASCE/SEI-7 are based on engineering experience, this study examines the required number of records statistically, such that the scaled records provide accurate, efficient, and consistent estimates of “true” structural responses. Based on elastic–perfectly plastic and bilinear single-degree-of-freedom systems, the ASCE/SEI-7 scaling procedure is applied to 480 sets of ground motions; the number of records in these sets varies from three to ten. As compared to benchmark responses, it is demonstrated that the ASCE/SEI-7 scaling procedure is conservative if fewer than seven ground motions are employed. Utilizing seven or more randomly selected records provides more accurate estimate of the responses. Selecting records based on their spectral shape and design spectral acceleration increases the accuracy and efficiency of the procedure.

Trafficability of Soils

DTIC Science & Technology

1945-09-01

pressures as designated by tho Engineer Board Transportation Branch worexaod for all tost* with tha ex- ception of a few tests conduotod with low prossure...tentative values are based on conservative estimates. It is emphasised that the analysis and eonolu- ■ions «* de in this report are not entirely...E~a= dE —5 ! E = rr = = EiE: :=Zggc===== ,.]sii ’ 1 ,/’ J𔄃 g "yr ’" :MrJ - — M - —; L* i t< j«--. 4^ ------.H--. J

Quantum fluctuations of the superconducting cosmic string

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Shoucheng

1987-01-01

Quantum fluctuations of the proposed superconducting string with Bose charge carriers are studied in terms of the vortices on the string world sheet. In the thermodynamical limit, it is found that they appear in the form of free vortices rather than as bound pairs. This fluctuation mode violates the topological conservation law on which superconductivity is based. However, this limit may not be reached. The critical size of the superconducting string is estimated as a function of the coupling constants involved.

Development of a Navy Hearing Conservation Management Information System (HECMIS).

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-11-01

FLORIDA 32508-5700 I,. * EJLECTE , APR 16 1985 ,..~’ 𔃾..: N" * t.K’:: * 9* .i JI>.iK . 𔃻 7--- K.’ SUMMARY PAGE THE PROBr.EM Currently , naval hearing...structure to act -9 upon the data in the manner defined in current NAVMEDCOM and OPNAV directives (1,2), and an effective computer based management...be estimated on the basis of hearing loss compensation claims. Claims paid through 1978 when none of the aforementioned elements existed in the Navy

Chiococca grandiflora (Rubiaceae), a new species from Northern Mexico

PubMed Central

Lorence, David H.; Devender, Thomas R. Van; Ferguson, George M.

2018-01-01

Abstract The new species Chiococca grandiflora Lorence & T.Van Devender from Sinaloa and Sonora, Mexico differs from its congeners by its larger, showy white flowers in compact cymes of 3–9, and infundibuliform corollas 16–20 mm long with tubes 13–17 mm long and lobes 3–3.5 mm long. Its distribution, habitat, and relationships are outlined. The conservation status for this species is estimated to be Endangered (EN) based on IUCN Red List Criteria. PMID:29750072

A Fuzzy Rule Based Decision Support System for Identifying Location of Water Harvesting Technologies in Rainfed Agricultural Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaubey, I.; Vema, V. K.; Sudheer, K.

2016-12-01

Site suitability evaluation of water conservation structures in water scarce rainfed agricultural areas consist of assessment of various landscape characteristics and various criterion. Many of these landscape characteristic attributes are conveyed through linguistic terms rather than precise numeric values. Fuzzy rule based system are capable of incorporating uncertainty and vagueness, when various decision making criteria expressed in linguistic terms are expressed as fuzzy rules. In this study a fuzzy rule based decision support system is developed, for optimal site selection of water harvesting technologies. Water conservation technologies like farm ponds, Check dams, Rock filled dams and percolation ponds aid in conserving water for irrigation and recharging aquifers and development of such a system will aid in improving the efficiency of the structures. Attributes and criteria involved in decision making are classified into different groups to estimate the suitability of the particular technology. The developed model is applied and tested on an Indian watershed. The input attributes are prepared in raster format in ArcGIS software and suitability of each raster cell is calculated and output is generated in the form of a thematic map showing the suitability of the cells pertaining to different technologies. The output of the developed model is compared against the already existing structures and results are satisfactory. This developed model will aid in improving the sustainability and efficiency of the watershed management programs aimed at enhancing in situ moisture content.

In flight estimations of Cassini spacecraft inertia tensor and thruster magnitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feldman, Antonette; Lee, Allan Y.

2006-01-01

This paper describes two methods used by the Cassini Attitude Control team to determine these key parameters and how flight telemetry was used to estimate them. The method for estimating the spacecraft inertia tensor exploits the conservation of angular momentum during spacecraft slews under reaction wheel control.

77 FR 44224 - Access to Confidential Business Information by Eastern Research Group, Incorporated

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-27

... Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR), Resource Conservation and Sustainability Division (RCSD) in developing the Municipal Solid Waste Characterization Report to analyze the composition and amounts of the... landfilled. The methodology used in this report is a ``top-down'' materials flow approach to estimate the...

18 CFR 1300.107 - Financial interest exemptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Financial interest exemptions. 1300.107 Section 1300.107 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY... purchase stock provided that the estimated market value of the interest does not exceed $5,000; (b) An...

Conservative Protestant Child Discipline: The Case of Parental Yelling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartkowski, John P.; Wilcox, W. Bradford

2000-01-01

Analysis of data from the 1987-88 National Survey of Families and Households indicates that conservative Protestant parents of preschoolers and school-age children were significantly less likely than other parents to report yelling at their children. Moreover, estimated effects of denominational affiliation on parental use of yelling were partly…

Estimating conservation needs for rangelands using USDA National Resources Inventory Assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) has used resource inventories for over 65 years to assess the Nation’s natural resources on non-Federal lands. Since 1995, an interagency group composed of the NRCS, Agricultural Research Service, and Geological Survey have worked together to de...

Republic of Georgia estimates for prevalence of drug use: Randomized response techniques suggest under-estimation.

PubMed

Kirtadze, Irma; Otiashvili, David; Tabatadze, Mzia; Vardanashvili, Irina; Sturua, Lela; Zabransky, Tomas; Anthony, James C

2018-06-01

Validity of responses in surveys is an important research concern, especially in emerging market economies where surveys in the general population are a novelty, and the level of social control is traditionally higher. The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) can be used as a check on response validity when the study aim is to estimate population prevalence of drug experiences and other socially sensitive and/or illegal behaviors. To apply RRT and to study potential under-reporting of drug use in a nation-scale, population-based general population survey of alcohol and other drug use. For this first-ever household survey on addictive substances for the Country of Georgia, we used the multi-stage probability sampling of 18-to-64-year-old household residents of 111 urban and 49 rural areas. During the interviewer-administered assessments, RRT involved pairing of sensitive and non-sensitive questions about drug experiences. Based upon the standard household self-report survey estimate, an estimated 17.3% [95% confidence interval, CI: 15.5%, 19.1%] of Georgian household residents have tried cannabis. The corresponding RRT estimate was 29.9% [95% CI: 24.9%, 34.9%]. The RRT estimates for other drugs such as heroin also were larger than the standard self-report estimates. We remain unsure about what is the "true" value for prevalence of using illegal psychotropic drugs in the Republic of Georgia study population. Our RRT results suggest that standard non-RRT approaches might produce 'under-estimates' or at best, highly conservative, lower-end estimates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Markov Chain Estimation of Avian Seasonal Fecundity, Presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Avian seasonal fecundity is of interest from evolutionary, ecological, and conservation perspectives. However, direct estimation of seasonal fecundity is difficult, especially with multibrooded birds, and models representing the renesting and quitting processes are usually requi...

Microarray-based comparative genomic profiling of reference strains and selected Canadian field isolates of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae

PubMed Central

Gouré, Julien; Findlay, Wendy A; Deslandes, Vincent; Bouevitch, Anne; Foote, Simon J; MacInnes, Janet I; Coulton, James W; Nash, John HE; Jacques, Mario

2009-01-01

Background Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae, the causative agent of porcine pleuropneumonia, is a highly contagious respiratory pathogen that causes severe losses to the swine industry worldwide. Current commercially-available vaccines are of limited value because they do not induce cross-serovar immunity and do not prevent development of the carrier state. Microarray-based comparative genomic hybridizations (M-CGH) were used to estimate whole genomic diversity of representative Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae strains. Our goal was to identify conserved genes, especially those predicted to encode outer membrane proteins and lipoproteins because of their potential for the development of more effective vaccines. Results Using hierarchical clustering, our M-CGH results showed that the majority of the genes in the genome of the serovar 5 A. pleuropneumoniae L20 strain were conserved in the reference strains of all 15 serovars and in representative field isolates. Fifty-eight conserved genes predicted to encode for outer membrane proteins or lipoproteins were identified. As well, there were several clusters of diverged or absent genes including those associated with capsule biosynthesis, toxin production as well as genes typically associated with mobile elements. Conclusion Although A. pleuropneumoniae strains are essentially clonal, M-CGH analysis of the reference strains of the fifteen serovars and representative field isolates revealed several classes of genes that were divergent or absent. Not surprisingly, these included genes associated with capsule biosynthesis as the capsule is associated with sero-specificity. Several of the conserved genes were identified as candidates for vaccine development, and we conclude that M-CGH is a valuable tool for reverse vaccinology. PMID:19239696

Managing Polyploidy in Ex Situ Conservation Genetics: The Case of the Critically Endangered Adriatic Sturgeon (Acipenser naccarii)

PubMed Central

Congiu, Leonardo; Pujolar, Jose Martin; Forlani, Anna; Cenadelli, Silvia; Dupanloup, Isabelle; Barbisan, Federica; Galli, Andrea; Fontana, Francesco

2011-01-01

While the current expansion of conservation genetics enables to address more efficiently the management of threatened species, alternative methods for genetic relatedness data analysis in polyploid species are necessary. Within this framework, we present a standardized and simple protocol specifically designed for polyploid species that can facilitate management of genetic diversity, as exemplified by the ex situ conservation program for the tetraploid Adriatic sturgeon Acipenser naccarii. A critically endangered endemic species of the Adriatic Sea tributaries, its persistence is strictly linked to the ex situ conservation of a single captive broodstock currently decimated to about 25 individuals, which represents the last remaining population of Adriatic sturgeon of certain wild origin. The genetic variability of three F1 broodstocks available as future breeders was estimated based on mitochondrial and microsatellite information and compared with the variability of the parental generation. Genetic data showed that the F1 stocks have only retained part of the genetic variation present in the original stock due to the few parent pairs used as founders. This prompts for the urgent improvement of the current F1 stocks by incorporating new founders that better represent the genetic diversity available. Following parental allocation based on band sharing values, we set up a user-friendly tool for selection of candidate breeders according to relatedness between all possible parent-pairs that secures the use of non-related individuals. The approach developed here could also be applied to other endangered tetraploid sturgeon species overexploited for caviar production, particularly in regions lacking proper infrastructure and/or expertise. PMID:21483472

Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Lubow, Bruce C.

2016-01-01

Accurately estimating the size of wildlife populations is critical to wildlife management and conservation of species. Raw counts or “minimum counts” are still used as a basis for wildlife management decisions. Uncorrected raw counts are not only negatively biased due to failure to account for undetected animals, but also provide no estimate of precision on which to judge the utility of counts. We applied a hybrid population estimation technique that combined sightability modeling, radio collar-based mark-resight, and simultaneous double count (double-observer) modeling to estimate the population size of elk in a high elevation desert ecosystem. Combining several models maximizes the strengths of each individual model while minimizing their singular weaknesses. We collected data with aerial helicopter surveys of the elk population in the San Luis Valley and adjacent mountains in Colorado State, USA in 2005 and 2007. We present estimates from 7 alternative analyses: 3 based on different methods for obtaining a raw count and 4 based on different statistical models to correct for sighting probability bias. The most reliable of these approaches is a hybrid double-observer sightability model (model MH), which uses detection patterns of 2 independent observers in a helicopter plus telemetry-based detections of radio collared elk groups. Data were fit to customized mark-resight models with individual sighting covariates. Error estimates were obtained by a bootstrapping procedure. The hybrid method was an improvement over commonly used alternatives, with improved precision compared to sightability modeling and reduced bias compared to double-observer modeling. The resulting population estimate corrected for multiple sources of undercount bias that, if left uncorrected, would have underestimated the true population size by as much as 22.9%. Our comparison of these alternative methods demonstrates how various components of our method contribute to improving the final estimate and demonstrates why each is necessary.

Non-Darcy flow of water-based carbon nanotubes with nonlinear radiation and heat generation/absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayat, T.; Ullah, Siraj; Khan, M. Ijaz; Alsaedi, A.; Zaigham Zia, Q. M.

2018-03-01

Here modeling and computations are presented to introduce the novel concept of Darcy-Forchheimer three-dimensional flow of water-based carbon nanotubes with nonlinear thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption. Bidirectional stretching surface induces the flow. Darcy's law is commonly replace by Forchheimer relation. Xue model is implemented for nonliquid transport mechanism. Nonlinear formulation based upon conservation laws of mass, momentum and energy is first modeled and then solved by optimal homotopy analysis technique. Optimal estimations of auxiliary variables are obtained. Importance of influential variables on the velocity and thermal fields is interpreted graphically. Moreover velocity and temperature gradients are discussed and analyzed. Physical interpretation of influential variables is examined.

Comparison of Modeling Approaches for Carbon Partitioning: Impact on Estimates of Global Net Primary Production and Equilibrium Biomass of Woody Vegetation from MODIS GPP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ise, T.; Litton, C. M.; Giardina, C. P.; Ito, A.

2009-12-01

Plant partitioning of carbon (C) to above- vs. belowground, to growth vs. respiration, and to short vs. long lived tissues exerts a large influence on ecosystem structure and function with implications for the global C budget. Importantly, outcomes of process-based terrestrial vegetation models are likely to vary substantially with different C partitioning algorithms. However, controls on C partitioning patterns remain poorly quantified, and studies have yielded variable, and at times contradictory, results. A recent meta-analysis of forest studies suggests that the ratio of net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP) is fairly conservative across large scales. To illustrate the effect of this unique meta-analysis-based partitioning scheme (MPS), we compared an application of MPS to a terrestrial satellite-based (MODIS) GPP to estimate NPP vs. two global process-based vegetation models (Biome-BGC and VISIT) to examine the influence of C partitioning on C budgets of woody plants. Due to the temperature dependence of maintenance respiration, NPP/GPP predicted by the process-based models increased with latitude while the ratio remained constant with MPS. Overall, global NPP estimated with MPS was 17 and 27% lower than the process-based models for temperate and boreal biomes, respectively, with smaller differences in the tropics. Global equilibrium biomass of woody plants was then calculated from the NPP estimates and tissue turnover rates from VISIT. Since turnover rates differed greatly across tissue types (i.e., metabolically active vs. structural), global equilibrium biomass estimates were sensitive to the partitioning scheme employed. The MPS estimate of global woody biomass was 7-21% lower than that of the process-based models. In summary, we found that model output for NPP and equilibrium biomass was quite sensitive to the choice of C partitioning schemes. Carbon use efficiency (CUE; NPP/GPP) by forest biome and the globe. Values are means for 2001-2006.

An intercomparison of biogenic emissions estimates from BEIS2 and BIOME: Reconciling the differences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkinson, J.G.; Emigh, R.A.; Pierce, T.E.

1996-12-31

Biogenic emissions play a critical role in urban and regional air quality. For instance, biogenic emissions contribute upwards of 76% of the daily hydrocarbon emissions in the Atlanta, Georgia airshed. The Biogenic Emissions Inventory System-Version 2.0 (BEIS2) and the Biogenic Model for Emissions (BIOME) are two models that compute biogenic emissions estimates. BEIS2 is a FORTRAN-based system, and BIOME is an ARC/INFO{reg_sign} - and SAS{reg_sign}-based system. Although the technical formulations of the models are similar, the models produce different biogenic emissions estimates for what appear to be essentially the same inputs. The goals of our study are the following: (1)more » Determine why BIOME and BEIS2 produce different emissions estimates; (2) Attempt to understand the impacts that the differences have on the emissions estimates; (3) Reconcile the differences where possible; and (4) Present a framework for the use of BEIS2 and BIOME. In this study, we used the Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas (COAST) biogenics data which were supplied to us courtesy of the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC), and we extracted the BEIS2 data for the same domain. We compared the emissions estimates of the two models using their respective data sets BIOME Using TNRCC data and BEIS2 using BEIS2 data.« less

Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast.

PubMed

Hameed, Sarah O; White, J Wilson; Miller, Seth H; Nickols, Kerry J; Morgan, Steven G

2016-06-29

Demographic connectivity is fundamental to the persistence and resilience of metapopulations, but our understanding of the link between reproduction and recruitment is notoriously poor in open-coast marine populations. We provide the first evidence of high local retention and limited connectivity among populations spanning 700 km along an open coast in an upwelling system. Using extensive field measurements of fecundity, population size and settlement in concert with a Bayesian inverse modelling approach, we estimated that, on average, Petrolisthes cinctipes larvae disperse only 6.9 km (±25.0 km s.d.) from natal populations, despite spending approximately six weeks in an open-coast system that was once assumed to be broadly dispersive. This estimate differed substantially from our prior dispersal estimate (153.9 km) based on currents and larval duration and behaviour, revealing the importance of employing demographic data in larval dispersal estimates. Based on this estimate, we predict that demographic connectivity occurs predominantly among neighbouring populations less than 30 km apart. Comprehensive studies of larval production, settlement and connectivity are needed to advance an understanding of the ecology and evolution of life in the sea as well as to conserve ecosystems. Our novel approach provides a tractable framework for addressing these questions for species occurring in discrete coastal populations. © 2016 The Author(s).

The use of resighting data to estimate the rate of population growth of the snail kite in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreitz, V.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Bennetts, R.E.; Kitchens, W.M.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2002-01-01

The rate of population growth (lambda) is an important demographic parameter used to assess the viability of a population and to develop management and conservation agendas. We examined the use of resighting data to estimate lambda for the snail kite population in Florida from 1997-2000. The analyses consisted of (1) a robust design approach that derives an estimate of lambda from estimates of population size and (2) the Pradel (1996) temporal symmetry (TSM) approach that directly estimates lambda using an open-population capture-recapture model. Besides resighting data, both approaches required information on the number of unmarked individuals that were sighted during the sampling periods. The point estimates of lambda differed between the robust design and TSM approaches, but the 95% confidence intervals overlapped substantially. We believe the differences may be the result of sparse data and do not indicate the inappropriateness of either modelling technique. We focused on the results of the robust design because this approach provided estimates for all study years. Variation among these estimates was smaller than levels of variation among ad hoc estimates based on previously reported index statistics. We recommend that lambda of snail kites be estimated using capture-resighting methods rather than ad hoc counts.

Effectiveness of Protected Areas in the Pan-Tropics and International Aid for Conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, D. H.

2015-12-01

Protected areas are crucial for tropical forest conservation efforts. Estimation of the effectiveness of protected areas is thus important for evaluating the efficacy of forest conservation policies and priorities. However, comprehensive evaluation of the long-term effects of Protected Areas and international aid is lacking. However, with the recent availability of long-term, large-scale forest cover change data at 30-m resolution, it has become possible to address some of the issues surrounding the effectiveness of protected areas. To evaluate the effectiveness of Protected Areas in the pan-tropics and international aid for conservation, we use the 30m resolution data along with econometrics 1) to estimate avoided deforestation by PAs in the tropics during the 2000s, 2) estimate effects of international aid on avoided deforestation by PAs and 3) analyze the relationships between the socio-economic variables and increases in deforestation, avoided deforestation by PAs and effects of international aid. Our results show that protected areas avoided 83,500 ± 21,200 km2 of deforestation during the 2000s. Brazil showed the highest estimates of effects of international aid on the avoided deforestation of 22 m2/USD, which is about 50 times higher compared to Indonesia (0.5 m2/USD). The regression analysis between avoided deforestation, effects of international aid and socio-economic factors demonstrates that PAs have been relatively more effective in the countries where the deforestation pressures were increasing and that governance and forest change monitoring capacity may be important factors enhancing the efficacy of international aid. Our study presents the first pan-tropical analysis of the long-term evaluation of the effectiveness of protected areas, international aid and their regulating factors using spatially explicit fine resolution data. Our findings allow us to pinpoint where conservation initiatives and resource management are effectively practiced and to discover the link with socio-economic factors and their significance and underlying implications for the effectiveness of PAs.

Assessing the Cost of Global Biodiversity and Conservation Knowledge.

PubMed

Juffe-Bignoli, Diego; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jenkins, Richard B; Boe, Kaia; Hoffmann, Michael; Angulo, Ariadne; Bachman, Steve; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Carpenter, Kent E; Comer, Pat J; Cox, Neil; Cuttelod, Annabelle; Darwall, William R T; Di Marco, Moreno; Fishpool, Lincoln D C; Goettsch, Bárbara; Heath, Melanie; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hutton, Jon; Johnson, Tim; Joolia, Ackbar; Keith, David A; Langhammer, Penny F; Luedtke, Jennifer; Nic Lughadha, Eimear; Lutz, Maiko; May, Ian; Miller, Rebecca M; Oliveira-Miranda, María A; Parr, Mike; Pollock, Caroline M; Ralph, Gina; Rodríguez, Jon Paul; Rondinini, Carlo; Smart, Jane; Stuart, Simon; Symes, Andy; Tordoff, Andrew W; Woodley, Stephen; Young, Bruce; Kingston, Naomi

2016-01-01

Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160 million (range: US$116-204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278-308 person-years) valued at US$ 14 million (range US$12-16 million), were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013) is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2-6.7 million). We estimated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines of data coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual maintenance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those to maintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodiversity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensive and accurate is fundamental to inform decision-making for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Thus, the development and implementation of plans for sustainable long-term financing for them is critical.

Assessing the Cost of Global Biodiversity and Conservation Knowledge

PubMed Central

Juffe-Bignoli, Diego; Brooks, Thomas M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Jenkins, Richard B.; Boe, Kaia; Hoffmann, Michael; Angulo, Ariadne; Bachman, Steve; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Carpenter, Kent E.; Comer, Pat J.; Cox, Neil; Cuttelod, Annabelle; Darwall, William R. T.; Fishpool, Lincoln D. C.; Goettsch, Bárbara; Heath, Melanie; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hutton, Jon; Johnson, Tim; Joolia, Ackbar; Keith, David A.; Langhammer, Penny F.; Luedtke, Jennifer; Nic Lughadha, Eimear; Lutz, Maiko; May, Ian; Miller, Rebecca M.; Oliveira-Miranda, María A.; Parr, Mike; Pollock, Caroline M.; Ralph, Gina; Rodríguez, Jon Paul; Rondinini, Carlo; Smart, Jane; Stuart, Simon; Symes, Andy; Tordoff, Andrew W.; Young, Bruce; Kingston, Naomi

2016-01-01

Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160 million (range: US$116–204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278–308 person-years) valued at US$ 14 million (range US$12–16 million), were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013) is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2–6.7 million). We estimated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines of data coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual maintenance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those to maintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodiversity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensive and accurate is fundamental to inform decision-making for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Thus, the development and implementation of plans for sustainable long-term financing for them is critical. PMID:27529491

The economic burden of physical inactivity: a global analysis of major non-communicable diseases.

PubMed

Ding, Ding; Lawson, Kenny D; Kolbe-Alexander, Tracy L; Finkelstein, Eric A; Katzmarzyk, Peter T; van Mechelen, Willem; Pratt, Michael

2016-09-24

The pandemic of physical inactivity is associated with a range of chronic diseases and early deaths. Despite the well documented disease burden, the economic burden of physical inactivity remains unquantified at the global level. A better understanding of the economic burden could help to inform resource prioritisation and motivate efforts to increase levels of physical activity worldwide. Direct health-care costs, productivity losses, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to physical inactivity were estimated with standardised methods and the best data available for 142 countries, representing 93·2% of the world's population. Direct health-care costs and DALYs were estimated for coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, breast cancer, and colon cancer attributable to physical inactivity. Productivity losses were estimated with a friction cost approach for physical inactivity related mortality. Analyses were based on national physical inactivity prevalence from available countries, and adjusted population attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with physical inactivity for each disease outcome and all-cause mortality. Conservatively estimated, physical inactivity cost health-care systems international $ (INT$) 53·8 billion worldwide in 2013, of which $31·2 billion was paid by the public sector, $12·9 billion by the private sector, and $9·7 billion by households. In addition, physical inactivity related deaths contribute to $13·7 billion in productivity losses, and physical inactivity was responsible for 13·4 million DALYs worldwide. High-income countries bear a larger proportion of economic burden (80·8% of health-care costs and 60·4% of indirect costs), whereas low-income and middle-income countries have a larger proportion of the disease burden (75·0% of DALYs). Sensitivity analyses based on less conservative assumptions led to much higher estimates. In addition to morbidity and premature mortality, physical inactivity is responsible for a substantial economic burden. This paper provides further justification to prioritise promotion of regular physical activity worldwide as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce non-communicable diseases. None. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying and prioritizing ungulate migration routes for landscape-level conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sawyer, H.; Kauffman, M.J.; Nielson, R.M.; Horne, J.S.

2009-01-01

As habitat loss and fragmentation increase across ungulate ranges, identifying and prioritizing migration routes for conservation has taken on new urgency. Here we present a general framework using the Brownian bridge movement model (BBMM) that: (1) provides a probabilistic estimate of the migration routes of a sampled population, (2) distinguishes between route segments that function as stopover sites vs. those used primarily as movement corridors, and (3) prioritizes routes for conservation based upon the proportion of the sampled population that uses them. We applied this approach to a migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) population in a pristine area of southwest Wyoming, USA, where 2000 gas wells and 1609 km of pipelines and roads have been proposed for development. Our analysis clearly delineated where migration routes occurred relative to proposed development and provided guidance for on-the-ground conservation efforts. Mule deer migration routes were characterized by a series of stopover sites where deer spent most of their time, connected by movement corridors through which deer moved quickly. Our findings suggest management strategies that differentiate between stopover sites and movement corridors may be warranted. Because some migration routes were used by more mule deer than others, proportional level of use may provide a reasonable metric by which routes can be prioritized for conservation. The methods we outline should be applicable to a wide range of species that inhabit regions where migration routes are threatened or poorly understood. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Life histories and conservation of long-lived reptiles, an illustration with the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs-Gonzalez, Venetia; Bonefant, Christophe; Basille, Mathieu; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Beauchamp, Jeff; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Successful species conservation is dependent on adequate estimates of population dynamics, but age-specific demographics are generally lacking for many long-lived iteroparous species such as large reptiles. Accurate demographic information allows estimation of population growth rate, as well as projection of future population sizes and quantitative analyses of fitness trade-offs involved in the evolution of life-history strategies.Here, a long-term capture–recapture study was conducted from 1978 to 2014 on the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in southern Florida. Over the study period, 7,427 hatchlings were marked and 380 individuals were recaptured for as many as 25 years. We estimated survival to be strongly age dependent with hatchlings having the lowest survival rates (16%) but increasing to nearly 90% at adulthood based on mark–recapture models. More than 5% of the female population were predicted to be reproductive by age 8 years; the age-specific proportion of reproductive females steadily increased until age 18 when more than 95% of females were predicted to be reproductive. Population growth rate, estimated from a Leslie–Lefkovitch stage-class model, showed a positive annual growth rate of 4% over the study period.Using a prospective sensitivity analysis, we revealed that the adult stage, as expected, was the most critical stage for population growth rate; however, the survival of younger crocodiles before they became reproductive also had a surprisingly high elasticity. We found that variation in age-specific fecundity has very limited impact on population growth rate in American crocodiles.We used a comparative approach to show that the original life-history strategy of American crocodiles is actually shared by other large, long-lived reptiles: while adult survival rates always have a large impact on population growth, this decreases with declining increasing growth rates, in favour of a higher elasticity of the juvenile stage.Crocodiles, as a long-lived and highly fecund species, deviate from the usual association of life histories of “slow” species. Current management practices are focused on nests and hatchling survival; however, protection efforts that extend to juvenile crocodiles would be most effective for conservation of the species, especially in an ever-developing landscape.

Estimated historical distribution of grassland communities of the Southern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reese, Gordon C.; Manier, Daniel J.; Carr, Natasha B.; Callan, Ramana; Leinwand, Ian I.F.; Assal, Timothy J.; Burris, Lucy; Ignizio, Drew A.

2016-12-07

The purpose of this project was to map the estimated distribution of grassland communities of the Southern Great Plains prior to Euro-American settlement. The Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA), under the direction of the Bureau of Land Management and the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative, includes four ecoregions: the High Plains, Central Great Plains, Southwestern Tablelands, and the Nebraska Sand Hills. The REA advisors and stakeholders determined that the mapping accuracy of available national land-cover maps was insufficient in many areas to adequately address management questions for the REA. Based on the recommendation of the REA stakeholders, we estimated the potential historical distribution of 10 grassland communities within the Southern Great Plains project area using data on soils, climate, and vegetation from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) including the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) and Ecological Site Information System (ESIS). The dominant grassland communities of the Southern Great Plains addressed as conservation elements for the REA area are shortgrass, mixed-grass, and sand prairies. We also mapped tall-grass, mid-grass, northwest mixed-grass, and cool season bunchgrass prairies, saline and foothill grasslands, and semi-desert grassland and steppe. Grassland communities were primarily defined using the annual productivity of dominant species in the ESIS data. The historical grassland community classification was linked to the SSURGO data using vegetation types associated with the predominant component of mapped soil units as defined in the ESIS data. We augmented NRCS data with Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) Biophysical Settings classifications 1) where NRCS data were unavailable and 2) where fifth-level watersheds intersected the boundary of the High Plains ecoregion in Wyoming. Spatial data representing the estimated historical distribution of grassland communities of the Southern Great Plains are provided as a 30 x 30-meter gridded surface (raster dataset). This information will help to address the priority management questions for grassland communities for the Southern Great Plains REA and can be used to inform other regional-level land management decisions.

[Impact of rural land market on farm household's behavior of soil & water conservation and its regional difference: A case study of Xingguo, Shangrao, and Yujiang County in Jiangxi province ecologically vulnerable districts].

PubMed

Zhong, Tai-Yang; Huang, Xian-jin

2006-02-01

The paper analyzed the farm households' decision-making progress of soil & water conservation and its two-stage conceptual model. It also discussed the impacts of rural land market on the farm households' behavior of soil & water conservation. Given that, the article established models for the relations between the land market and soil & water conservation, and the models' parameters were estimated with Heckman's two-stage approach by using the farm household questionnaires in Xingguo, Shangrao and Yujiang counties of Jiangxi province. The paper analyzed the impact o f rural land market on farm household's behavior of soil & water conservation and its regional difference with the result of model estimation. The results show that the perception of soil & water loss and the tax & fee on the farm land have significant influence upon the soil and water conservation from the view of the population; however, because of different social and economic condition, and soil & water loss, there are differences of the influence among the three sample counties. These differences go as follows in detail: In Xingguo County, the rent-in land area and its cost have remarkable effect on the farm households' soil & water conservation behavior; In Yujiang County, the rent-in land area, rent-in cost and rent-out land area remarkably influence the farm households' behavior of soil and water conservation, with the influence of the rent-in land area being greater than Xingguo County; In Shangrao County, only rent-out land area has significant influence on the behaviors of soil & water conservation; In all samples, Xingguo County and Yujiang County samples, the rent-out income has no significant influence on the farm household's decision-making behavior soil and water conservation. Finally, the paper put forward some suggestions on how to bring the soil & water loss under control and use land resource in sustainable ways.