Dynamics of a deep-water seagrass population on the Great Barrier Reef: annual occurrence and response to a major dredging program.

PubMed

York, Paul H; Carter, Alex B; Chartrand, Kathryn; Sankey, Tonia; Wells, Linda; Rasheed, Michael A

2015-08-17

Global seagrass research efforts have focused on shallow coastal and estuarine seagrass populations where alarming declines have been recorded. Comparatively little is known about the dynamics of deep-water seagrasses despite evidence that they form extensive meadows in some parts of the world. Deep-water seagrasses are subject to similar anthropogenic threats as shallow meadows, particularly along the Great Barrier Reef lagoon where they occur close to major population centres. We examine the dynamics of a deep-water seagrass population in the GBR over an 8 year period during which time a major capital dredging project occurred. Seasonal and inter-annual changes in seagrasses were assessed as well as the impact of dredging. The seagrass population was found to occur annually, generally present between July and December each year. Extensive and persistent turbid plumes from a large dredging program over an 8 month period resulted in a failure of the seagrasses to establish in 2006, however recruitment occurred the following year and the regular annual cycle was re-established. Results show that despite considerable inter annual variability, deep-water seagrasses had a regular annual pattern of occurrence, low resistance to reduced water quality but a capacity for rapid recolonisation on the cessation of impacts.

Dynamics of a deep-water seagrass population on the Great Barrier Reef: annual occurrence and response to a major dredging program

PubMed Central

York, Paul H.; Carter, Alex B.; Chartrand, Kathryn; Sankey, Tonia; Wells, Linda; Rasheed, Michael A.

2015-01-01

Global seagrass research efforts have focused on shallow coastal and estuarine seagrass populations where alarming declines have been recorded. Comparatively little is known about the dynamics of deep-water seagrasses despite evidence that they form extensive meadows in some parts of the world. Deep-water seagrasses are subject to similar anthropogenic threats as shallow meadows, particularly along the Great Barrier Reef lagoon where they occur close to major population centres. We examine the dynamics of a deep-water seagrass population in the GBR over an 8 year period during which time a major capital dredging project occurred. Seasonal and inter-annual changes in seagrasses were assessed as well as the impact of dredging. The seagrass population was found to occur annually, generally present between July and December each year. Extensive and persistent turbid plumes from a large dredging program over an 8 month period resulted in a failure of the seagrasses to establish in 2006, however recruitment occurred the following year and the regular annual cycle was re-established. Results show that despite considerable inter annual variability, deep-water seagrasses had a regular annual pattern of occurrence, low resistance to reduced water quality but a capacity for rapid recolonisation on the cessation of impacts. PMID:26279474

Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have implications for water resources management practices in Singapore.

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-tissue analyses reveal limited inter-annual and seasonal variation in mercury exposure in an Antarctic penguin community.

PubMed

Brasso, Rebecka L; Polito, Michael J; Emslie, Steven D

2014-10-01

Inter-annual variation in tissue mercury concentrations in birds can result from annual changes in the bioavailability of mercury or shifts in dietary composition and/or trophic level. We investigated potential annual variability in mercury dynamics in the Antarctic marine food web using Pygoscelis penguins as biomonitors. Eggshell membrane, chick down, and adult feathers were collected from three species of sympatrically breeding Pygoscelis penguins during the austral summers of 2006/2007-2010/2011. To evaluate the hypothesis that mercury concentrations in penguins exhibit significant inter-annual variation and to determine the potential source of such variation (dietary or environmental), we compared tissue mercury concentrations with trophic levels as indicated by δ(15)N values from all species and tissues. Overall, no inter-annual variation in mercury was observed in adult feathers suggesting that mercury exposure, on an annual scale, was consistent for Pygoscelis penguins. However, when examining tissues that reflected more discrete time periods (chick down and eggshell membrane) relative to adult feathers, we found some evidence of inter-annual variation in mercury exposure during penguins' pre-breeding and chick rearing periods. Evidence of inter-annual variation in penguin trophic level was also limited suggesting that foraging ecology and environmental factors related to the bioavailability of mercury may provide more explanatory power for mercury exposure compared to trophic level alone. Even so, the variable strength of relationships observed between trophic level and tissue mercury concentrations across and within Pygoscelis penguin species suggest that caution is required when selecting appropriate species and tissue combinations for environmental biomonitoring studies in Antarctica.

Inter-annual variability and spatial coherence of net primary productivity across a western Oregon Cascades landscape

Treesearch

Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O’Connell

2015-01-01

Inter-annual variability (IAV) of forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a function of both extrinsic (e.g., climate) and intrinsic (e.g., stand dynamics) drivers. As estimates of NPP in forests are scaled from trees to stands to the landscape, an understanding of the relative effects of these factors on spatial and temporal behavior of NPP is important. Although a...

Watershed-scale response of groundwater recharge to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in precipitation (Alberta, Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, Masaki; Farrow, Christopher R.

2014-12-01

Groundwater recharge sets a constraint on aquifer water balance in the context of water management. Historical data on groundwater and other relevant hydrological processes can be used to understand the effects of climatic variability on recharge, but such data sets are rare. The climate of the Canadian prairies is characterized by large inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in precipitation, which provides opportunities to examine the response of groundwater recharge to changes in meteorological conditions. A decadal study was conducted in a small (250 km2) prairie watershed in Alberta, Canada. Relative magnitude of annual recharge, indicated by water-level rise, was significantly correlated with a combination of growing-season precipitation and snowmelt runoff, which drives depression-focussed infiltration of meltwater. Annual precipitation was greater than vapour flux at an experimental site in some years and smaller in other years. On average precipitation minus vapour flux was 10 mm y-1, which was comparable to the magnitude of watershed-scale groundwater recharge estimated from creek baseflow. Average baseflow showed a distinct shift from a low value (4 mm y-1) in 1982-1995 to a high value (15 mm y-1) in 2003-2013, indicating the sensitivity of groundwater recharge to a decadal-scale variability of meteorological conditions.

Groundwater-fed irrigation impacts spatially distributed temporal scaling behavior of the natural system: a spatio-temporal framework for understanding water management impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condon, Laura E.; Maxwell, Reed M.

2014-03-01

Regional scale water management analysis increasingly relies on integrated modeling tools. Much recent work has focused on groundwater-surface water interactions and feedbacks. However, to our knowledge, no study has explicitly considered impacts of management operations on the temporal dynamics of the natural system. Here, we simulate twenty years of hourly moisture dependent, groundwater-fed irrigation using a three-dimensional, fully integrated, hydrologic model (ParFlow-CLM). Results highlight interconnections between irrigation demand, groundwater oscillation frequency and latent heat flux variability not previously demonstrated. Additionally, the three-dimensional model used allows for novel consideration of spatial patterns in temporal dynamics. Latent heat flux and water table depth both display spatial organization in temporal scaling, an important finding given the spatial homogeneity and weak scaling observed in atmospheric forcings. Pumping and irrigation amplify high frequency (sub-annual) variability while attenuating low frequency (inter-annual) variability. Irrigation also intensifies scaling within irrigated areas, essentially increasing temporal memory in both the surface and the subsurface. These findings demonstrate management impacts that extend beyond traditional water balance considerations to the fundamental behavior of the system itself. This is an important step to better understanding groundwater’s role as a buffer for natural variability and the impact that water management has on this capacity.

AVHRR channel selection for land cover classification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maxwell, S.K.; Hoffer, R.M.; Chapman, P.L.

2002-01-01

Mapping land cover of large regions often requires processing of satellite images collected from several time periods at many spectral wavelength channels. However, manipulating and processing large amounts of image data increases the complexity and time, and hence the cost, that it takes to produce a land cover map. Very few studies have evaluated the importance of individual Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) channels for discriminating cover types, especially the thermal channels (channels 3, 4 and 5). Studies rarely perform a multi-year analysis to determine the impact of inter-annual variability on the classification results. We evaluated 5 years of AVHRR data using combinations of the original AVHRR spectral channels (1-5) to determine which channels are most important for cover type discrimination, yet stabilize inter-annual variability. Particular attention was placed on the channels in the thermal portion of the spectrum. Fourteen cover types over the entire state of Colorado were evaluated using a supervised classification approach on all two-, three-, four- and five-channel combinations for seven AVHRR biweekly composite datasets covering the entire growing season for each of 5 years. Results show that all three of the major portions of the electromagnetic spectrum represented by the AVHRR sensor are required to discriminate cover types effectively and stabilize inter-annual variability. Of the two-channel combinations, channels 1 (red visible) and 2 (near-infrared) had, by far, the highest average overall accuracy (72.2%), yet the inter-annual classification accuracies were highly variable. Including a thermal channel (channel 4) significantly increased the average overall classification accuracy by 5.5% and stabilized interannual variability. Each of the thermal channels gave similar classification accuracies; however, because of the problems in consistently interpreting channel 3 data, either channel 4 or 5 was found to be a more appropriate choice. Substituting the thermal channel with a single elevation layer resulted in equivalent classification accuracies and inter-annual variability.

Inter-annual Variability in Global Suspended Particulate Inorganic Carbon Inventory Using Space-based Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, J.; Balch, W. M.; Henson, S.; Poulton, A. J.; Drapeau, D.; Bowler, B.; Lubelczyk, L.

2016-02-01

Coccolithophores, the single celled phytoplankton that produce an outer covering of calcium carbonate coccoliths, are considered to be the greatest contributors to the global oceanic particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) pool. The reflective coccoliths scatter light back out from the ocean surface, enabling PIC concentration to be quantitatively estimated from ocean color satellites. Here we use datasets of AQUA MODIS PIC concentration from 2003-2014 (using the recently-revised PIC algorithm), as well as statistics on coccolithophore vertical distribution derived from cruises throughout the world ocean, to estimate the average global (surface and integrated) PIC standing stock and its associated inter-annual variability. In addition, we divide the global ocean into Longhurst biogeochemical provinces, update the PIC biomass statistics and identify those regions that have the greatest inter-annual variability and thus may exert the greatest influence on global PIC standing stock and the alkalinity pump.

Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeyringer, Marianne; Price, James; Fais, Birgit; Li, Pei-Hao; Sharp, Ed

2018-05-01

The design of cost-effective power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires a modelling approach that simultaneously represents the whole energy system combined with the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of VRE. Here, we soft-link a long-term energy system model, which explores new energy system configurations from years to decades, with a high spatial and temporal resolution power system model that captures VRE variability from hours to years. Applying this methodology to Great Britain for 2050, we find that VRE-focused power system design is highly sensitive to the inter-annual variability of weather and that planning based on a single year can lead to operational inadequacy and failure to meet long-term decarbonization objectives. However, some insights do emerge that are relatively stable to weather-year. Reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs while electricity storage and flexible generation, needed to integrate VRE into the system, are generally deployed close to demand centres.

The predicted CLARREO sampling error of the inter-annual SW variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doelling, D. R.; Keyes, D. F.; Nguyen, C.; Macdonnell, D.; Young, D. F.

2009-12-01

The NRC Decadal Survey has called for SI traceability of long-term hyper-spectral flux measurements in order to monitor climate variability. This mission is called the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) and is currently defining its mission requirements. The requirements are focused on the ability to measure decadal change of key climate variables at very high accuracy. The accuracy goals are set using anticipated climate change magnitudes, but the accuracy achieved for any given climate variable must take into account the temporal and spatial sampling errors based on satellite orbits and calibration accuracy. The time period to detect a significant trend in the CLARREO record depends on the magnitude of the sampling calibration errors relative to the current inter-annual variability. The largest uncertainty in climate feedbacks remains the effect of changing clouds on planetary energy balance. Some regions on earth have strong diurnal cycles, such as maritime stratus and afternoon land convection; other regions have strong seasonal cycles, such as the monsoon. However, when monitoring inter-annual variability these cycles are only important if the strength of these cycles vary on decadal time scales. This study will attempt to determine the best satellite constellations to reduce sampling error and to compare the error with the current inter-annual variability signal to ensure the viability of the mission. The study will incorporate Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) (Monthly TOA/Surface Averages) SRBAVG product TOA LW and SW climate quality fluxes. The fluxes are derived by combining Terra (10:30 local equator crossing time) CERES fluxes with 3-hourly 5-geostationary satellite estimated broadband fluxes, which are normalized using the CERES fluxes, to complete the diurnal cycle. These fluxes were saved hourly during processing and considered the truth dataset. 90°, 83° and 74° inclination precessionary orbits as well as sun-synchronous orbits will be evaluated. This study will focus on the SW radiance, since these low earth orbits are only in daylight for half the orbit. The precessionary orbits were designed to cycle through all solar zenith angles over the course of a year. The inter-annual variability sampling error will be stratified globally/zonally and annually/seasonally and compared with the corresponding truth anomalies.

Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.

2014-12-01

Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2 exchanges.

Why is seed production so variable among individuals? A ten-year study with oaks reveals the importance of soil environment.

PubMed

Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M; Aponte, Cristina; García, Luis V; Padilla-Díaz, Carmen M; Marañón, Teodoro

2014-01-01

Mast-seeding species exhibit not only a large inter-annual variability in seed production but also considerable variability among individuals within the same year. However, very little is known about the causes and consequences for population dynamics of this potentially large between-individual variability. Here, we quantified seed production over ten consecutive years in two Mediterranean oak species - the deciduous Quercus canariensis and the evergreen Q. suber - that coexist in forests of southern Spain. First, we calibrated likelihood models to identify which abiotic and biotic variables best explain the magnitude (hereafter seed productivity) and temporal variation of seed production at the individual level (hereafter CVi), and infer whether reproductive effort results from the available soil resources for the plant or is primarily determined by selectively favoured strategies. Second, we explored the contribution of between-individual variability in seed production as a potential mechanism of satiation for predispersal seed predators. We found that Q. canariensis trees inhabiting moister and more fertile soils were more productive than those growing in more resource-limited sites. Regarding temporal variation, individuals of the two studied oak species inhabiting these resource-rich environments also exhibited larger values of CVi. Interestingly, we detected a satiating effect on granivorous insects at the tree level in Q. suber, which was evident in those years where between-individual variability in acorn production was higher. These findings suggest that individual seed production (both in terms of seed productivity and inter-annual variability) is strongly dependent on soil resource heterogeneity (at least for one of the two studied oak species) with potential repercussions for recruitment and population dynamics. However, other external factors (such as soil heterogeneity in pathogen abundance) or certain inherent characteristics of the tree might be also involved in this process.

Inter Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Yellow Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

the world climate is in fact warming due to anthropogenic causes (Anderegg et al. 2010; Solomon et al. 2009). To put this in terms for this research ...2006). The present research uses a 0.5’ resolution. B. SEDIMENTS DATABASE There are four openly available sediment databases: Enhanced, Standard...DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This research investigates the inter-annual acoustic variability in the Yellow Sea identified from

How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin

2018-04-01

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel

2018-01-01

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability.

PubMed

Flo, Víctor; Bosch, Jordi; Arnan, Xavier; Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M; Barril-Graells, Helena; Rodrigo, Anselm

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability

PubMed Central

Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M.; Barril-Graells, Helena

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change. PMID:29346453

Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

2016-12-01

Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

Long-Term Simulation of Dust Distribution with the GOCART Model: Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ginoux, P.; Prospero, J.; Torres, O.; Chin, M.

2002-01-01

Global distribution of aeolian dust is simulated from 1981 to 1996 with the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The results are assessed with in-situ measurements and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol products. The annual budget over the different continents and oceans are analyzed. It is found that there is a maximum of 25% difference of global annual emission from the minimum in 1996 to the maximum in 1988. There is a downward trend of dust emission over Africa and East Asia, of 6 and 2 Tg/yr, respectively. The inter-annual variability of dust distribution is analyzed over the North Atlantic and Africa. It is found that in winter most of the North Atlantic and Africa dust loading is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The GOCART model indicates that a controlling factor of such correlation can be attributed to dust emission from the Sahel. The Bodele depression is the major dust source in winter and its inter-annual variability is highly correlated with the NAO. However, it is not possible to conclude without further analysis that the North Atlantic Oscillation is forcing the inter-annual variability of dust emission and in-turn dust concentration over the North Atlantic.

Analysis of trends and dominant periodicities in drought variables in India: A wavelet transform based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Nitin; Gupta, Divya; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Adamowski, Jan; Madramootoo, Chandra A.

2016-12-01

In this study, seasonal trends as well as dominant and significant periods of variability of drought variables were analyzed for 30 rainfall subdivisions in India over 141 years (1871-2012). Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used as a meteorological drought indicator, and various drought variables (monsoon SPI, non-monsoon SPI, yearly SPI, annual drought duration, annual drought severity and annual drought peak) were analyzed. Discrete wavelet transform was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall test to analyze trends and dominant periodicities associated with the drought variables. Furthermore, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) based global wavelet spectrum was used to analyze significant periods of variability associated with the drought variables. From the trend analysis, we observed that over the second half of the 20th century, drought occurrences increased significantly in subdivisions of Northeast and Central India. In both short-term (2-8 years) and decadal (16-32 years) periodicities, the drought variables were found to influence the trend. However, CWT analysis indicated that the dominant periodic components were not significant for most of the geographical subdivisions. Although inter-annual and inter-decadal periodic components play an important role, they may not completely explain the variability associated with the drought variables across the country.

Climatology and inter-annual variability of the polar mesospheric winds inferred from meteor radar observations over Sodankylä (67N, 26E) during solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukianova, Renata; Kozlovsky, Alexander; Lester, Mark

2018-06-01

The inter-annual variability, climatological mean wind and tide fields in the northern polar mesosphere/lower thermosphere region of 82-98 km height are studied using observations by the meteor radar which has operated continuously during solar cycle 24 (from December 2008 onward) at the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (67N, 26E). Summer mean zonal winds are characterized by westward flow, up to 25 m/s, at lower heights and eastward flow, up to 30 m/s, at upper heights. In the winter an eastward flow, up to 10 m/s, dominates at all heights. The meridional winds are characterized by a relatively weak poleward flow (few m/s) in the winter and equatorward flow in the summer, with a jet core (∼15 m/s) located slightly below 90 km. These systematically varying winds are dominated by the semidiurnal tides. The largest amplitudes, up to 30 m/s, are observed at higher altitudes in winter and a secondary maximum is seen in August-September. The diurnal tides are almost a factor of two weaker and peak in summer. The variability of individual years is dominated by the winter perturbations. During the period of observations major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occurred in January 2009 and 2013. During these events the wind fields were strongly modified. The lowest altitude eastward winds maximized up to 25 m/s, that is by more twice that of the non-SSW years. The poleward flow considerably increases (up 10 m/s) and extends from the lower heights throughout the whole altitude range. The annual pattern in temperature at ∼90 km height over Sodankyla consists of warm winters (up to 200 K) and cold summers (∼120 K).

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on food production in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul; hellegers, Petra; van Ierland, Ekko; Kabat, Pavel

2014-05-01

Rainfall variability is expected to increase in the coming decades as the world warms. Especially in regions already water stressed, a higher rainfall variability will jeopardize food security. Recently, the impact of inter-annual rainfall variability has received increasing attention in regional to global analysis on water availability and food security. But the description of the dynamics behind it is still incomplete in most models. Contemporary land surface and hydrological models used for such analyses describe variability in production primarily as a function of yield, a process driven by biophysical parameters, thereby neglecting yearly variations in cropped area, a process driven largely by management decisions. Agricultural statistics for northern India show that the latter process could explain up to 40% of the observed inter-annual variation in food production in various states. We added a simple dynamic land use decision module to a land surface model (LPJmL) and analyzed to what extent this improved the estimation of variability in food production. Using this improved modelling framework we then assessed if and at which scale rainfall variability affects meeting the food self-sufficiency threshold. Early results for the Ganges Basin indicate that, while on basin level variability in crop production is still relatively low, several districts and states are highly affected (RSTD > 50%). Such insight can contribute to better recommendations on the most effective measures, at the most appropriate scale, to buffer variability in food production.

The role of discharge variability in the formation and preservation of alluvial sediment bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fielding, Christopher R.; Alexander, Jan; Allen, Jonathan P.

2018-03-01

Extant, planform-based facies models for alluvial deposits are not fully fit for purpose, because they over-emphasise plan form whereas there is little in the alluvial rock record that is distinctive of any particular planform, and because the planform of individual rivers vary in both time and space. Accordingly, existing facies models have limited predictive capability. In this paper, we explore the role of inter-annual peak discharge variability as a possible control on the character of the preserved alluvial record. Data from a suite of modern rivers, for which long-term gauging records are available, and for which there are published descriptions of subsurface sedimentary architecture, are analysed. The selected rivers are categorized according to their variance in peak discharge or the coefficient of variation (CVQp = standard deviation of the annual peak flood discharge over the mean annual peak flood discharge). This parameter ranges over the rivers studied between 0.18 and 1.22, allowing classification of rivers as having very low (< 0.20), low (0.20-0.40), moderate (0.40-0.60), high (0.60-0.90), or very high (> 0.90) annual peak discharge variance. Deposits of rivers with very low and low peak discharge variability are dominated by cross-bedding on various scales and preserve macroform bedding structure, allowing the interpretation of bar construction processes. Rivers with moderate values preserve mostly cross-bedding, but records of macroform processes are in places muted and considerably modified by reworking. Rivers with high and very high values of annual peak discharge variability show a wide range of bedding structures commonly including critical and supercritical flow structures, abundant in situ trees and transported large, woody debris, and their deposits contain pedogenically modified mud partings and generally lack macroform structure. Such a facies assemblage is distinctively different from the conventional fluvial style recorded in published facies models but is widely developed both in modern and ancient alluvial deposits. This high-peak-variance style is also distinctive of rivers that are undergoing contraction in discharge over time because of the gradual annexation of the channel belt by the establishment of woody vegetation. We propose that discharge variability, both inter-annual peak variation and "flashiness" may be a more reliable basis for classifying the alluvial rock record than planform, and we provide some examples of three classes of alluvial sediment bodies (representing low, intermediate, and high/very high discharge variability) from the rock record that illustrate this point.

Modeling the impacts of phenological and inter-annual changes in landscape metrics on local biodiversity of agricultural lands of Eastern Ontario using multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alavi-Shoushtari, N.; King, D.

2017-12-01

Agricultural landscapes are highly variable ecosystems and are home to many local farmland species. Seasonal, phenological and inter-annual agricultural landscape dynamics have potential to affect the richness and abundance of farmland species. Remote sensing provides data and techniques which enable monitoring landscape changes in multiple temporal and spatial scales. MODIS high temporal resolution remote sensing images enable detection of seasonal and phenological trends, while Landsat higher spatial resolution images, with its long term archive enables inter-annual trend analysis over several decades. The objective of this study to use multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data to model the response of farmland species to landscape metrics. The study area is the predominantly agricultural region of eastern Ontario. 92 sample landscapes were selected within this region using a protocol designed to maximize variance in composition and configuration heterogeneity while controlling for amount of forest and spatial autocorrelation. Two sample landscape extents (1×1km and 3×3km) were selected to analyze the impacts of spatial scale on biodiversity response. Gamma diversity index data for four taxa groups (birds, butterflies, plants, and beetles) were collected during the summers of 2011 and 2012 within the cropped area of each landscape. To extract the seasonal and phenological metrics a 2000-2012 MODIS NDVI time-series was used, while a 1985-2012 Landsat time-series was used to model the inter-annual trends of change in the sample landscapes. The results of statistical modeling showed significant relationships between farmland biodiversity for several taxa and the phenological and inter-annual variables. The following general results were obtained: 1) Among the taxa groups, plant and beetles diversity was most significantly correlated with the phenological variables; 2) Those phenological variables which are associated with the variability in the start of season date across the sample landscapes and the variability in the corresponding NDVI values at that date showed the strongest correlation with the biodiversity indices; 3) The significance of the models improved when using 3×3km site extent both for MODIS and Landsat based models due most likely to the larger sample size over 3x3km.

An Analysis of Inter-annual Variability and Uncertainty of Continental Surface Heat Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, S. Y.; Deng, Y.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

The inter-annual variability and the corresponding uncertainty of land surface heat fluxes during the first decade of the 21st century are re-evaluated at continental scale based on the heat fluxes estimated by the maximum entropy production (MEP) model. The MEP model predicted heat fluxes are constrained by surface radiation fluxes, automatically satisfy surface energy balance, and are independent of temperature/moisture gradient, wind speed, and roughness lengths. The surface radiation fluxes and temperature data from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System and the surface specific humidity data from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications were used to reproduce the global surface heat fluxes with land-cover data from the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS). Our analysis shows that the annual means of continental latent heat fluxes have increasing trends associated with increasing trends in surface net radiative fluxes. The sensible heat fluxes also have increasing trends over most continents except for South America. Ground heat fluxes have little trends. The continental-scale analysis of the MEP fluxes are compared with other existing global surface fluxes data products and the implications of the results for inter-annual to decadal variability of regional surface energy budget are discussed.

Explaining the inter-annual variability in the ecosystem fluxes of the Brasschaat Scots pine forest: 20 years of eddy flux and pollution monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horemans, Joanna; Roland, Marilyn; Janssens, Ivan; Ceulemans, Reinhart

2017-04-01

Because of their ecological and recreational value, the health of forest ecosystems and their response to global change and pollution are of high importance. At a number of EuroFlux and ICOS ecosystem sites in Europe - as the Brasschaat forest site - the measurements of ecosystem fluxes of carbon and other gases are combined with vertical profiles of air pollution within the framework of the ICP-Forest monitoring program. The Brasschaat forest is dominated by 80-year old Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.), and has a total area of about 150 ha. It is situated near an urban area in the Campine region of Flanders, Belgium and is characterized by a mean annual temperature of 9.8 °C and an annual rainfall of 830 mm. In this contribution we report on a long-term analysis (1996-2016) of the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes, the energy exchanges and the pollutant concentrations (ozone, NOx, NH3, SO2). Particular interest goes to the inter-annual variation of the carbon fluxes and the carbon allocation patterns. The impact of the long-term (aggregated) and the short-term variability in both the meteorological drivers and in the main tropospheric pollutants on the carbon fluxes is examined, as well as their mutual interactive effects and their potential memory effect. The effect of variability in the drivers during the phenological phases (seasonality) on the inter-annual variability of the fluxes is also examined. Basic statistical techniques as well as spectral analyses and data mining techniques are being used.

Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

PubMed Central

Guo, Bin; Chen, Zhongsheng; Guo, Jinyun; Liu, Feng; Chen, Chuanfa; Liu, Kangli

2016-01-01

Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960–2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Obvious non-linear upward trends in precipitation were found in the north, south, east and the entire Xinjiang. Changes in precipitation in Xinjiang exhibited significant inter-annual scale (quasi-2 and quasi-6 years) and inter-decadal scale (quasi-12 and quasi-23 years). Moreover, the 2–3-year quasi-periodic fluctuation was dominant in regional precipitation and the inter-annual variation had a considerable effect on the regional-scale precipitation variation in Xinjiang. We also found that there were distinctive spatial differences in variation trends and turning points of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results of this study indicated that compared to traditional decomposition methods, the EEMD method, without using any a priori determined basis functions, could effectively extract the reliable multi-scale fluctuations and reveal the intrinsic oscillation properties of climate elements. PMID:27007388

Ecophysiological and phenological strategies in seasonally-dry ecosystems: an ecohydrological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Manzoni, Stefano; Thompson, Sally; Molini, Annalisa; Porporato, Amilcare

2015-04-01

Seasonally-dry climates are particularly challenging for vegetation, as they are characterized by prolonged dry periods and often marked inter-annual variability. During the dry season plants face predictable physiological stress due to lack of water, whereas the inter-annual variability in rainfall timing and amounts requires plants to develop flexible adaptation strategies. The variety of strategies observed across seasonally-dry (Mediterranean and tropical) ecosystems is indeed wide - ranging from near-isohydric species that adjust stomatal conductance to avoid drought, to anisohydric species that maintain gas exchange during the dry season. A suite of phenological strategies are hypothesized to be associated to ecophysiological strategies. Here we synthetize current knowledge on ecophysiological and phenological adaptations through a comprehensive ecohydrological model linking a soil water balance to a vegetation carbon balance. Climatic regimes are found to select for different phenological strategies that maximize the long-term plant carbon uptake. Inter-annual variability of the duration of the wet season allows coexistence of different drought-deciduous strategies. In contrast, short dry seasons or access to groundwater favour evergreen species. Climatic changes causing more intermittent rainfall and/or shorter wet seasons are predicted to favour drought-deciduous species with opportunistic water use.

Revisiting sea level changes in the North Sea during the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Jürgen; Dangendorf, Sönke; Wahl, Thomas; Niehüser, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The North Sea is one of the best instrumented ocean basins in the world. Here we revisit sea level changes in the North Sea region from tide gauges, satellite altimetry, hydrographic profiles and ocean reanalysis data from the beginning of the 19th century to present. This includes an overview of the sea level chapter of the North Sea Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) complemented by results from more recent investigations. The estimates of long-term changes from tide gauge records are significantly affected by vertical land motion (VLM), which is related to both the large-scale viscoelastic response of the solid earth to ice melting since the last deglaciation and local effects. Removing VLM (estimated from various data sources such as GPS, tide gauge minus altimetry and GIA) significantly reduces the spatial variability of long-term trends in the basin. VLM corrected tide gauge records suggest a transition from relatively moderate changes in the 19th century towards modern trends of roughly 1.5 mm/yr during the 20th century. Superimposed on the long-term changes there is a considerable inter-annual to multi-decadal variability. On inter-annual timescales this variability mainly reflects the barotropic response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing with the inverted barometer effect dominating along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind forcing controlling the southeastern part of the basin. The decadal variability is mostly remotely forced and dynamically linked to the North Atlantic via boundary waves in response to long-shore winds along the continental slope. These findings give valuable information about the required horizontal resolution of ocean models and the necessary boundary conditions and are therefore important for the dynamical downscaling of sea level projections for the North Sea coastlines.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

Flow characteristics of rivers in northern Australia: Implications for development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petheram, Cuan; McMahon, Thomas A.; Peel, Murray C.

2008-07-01

SummaryAnnual, monthly and daily streamflows from 99 unregulated rivers across northern Australia were analysed to assess the general surface water resources of the region and their implications for development. The potential for carry-over storages was assessed using the Gould-Dincer Gamma method, which utilises the mean, standard deviation, skewness and lag-one serial correlation coefficient of annual flows. Runs Analysis was used to describe the characteristics of drought in northern Australia and the potential for 'active' water harvesting was evaluated by Base Flow Separation, Flow Duration Curves and Spells Analysis. These parameters for northern Australia were compared with data from southern Australia and data for similar Köppen class from around the world. Notably, the variability and seasonality of annual streamflow across northern Australia were observed to be high compared with that of similar Köppen classes from the rest of the world (RoW). The high inter-annual variability of runoff means that carry-over storages in northern Australia will need to be considerably larger than for rivers from the RoW (assuming similar mean annual runoff, yield and reliability). For example, in the three major Köppen zones across the North, it was possible (theoretically) to only exploit approximately 33% (Köppen Aw; n = 6), 25% (Köppen BSh; n = 12) and 13% (Köppen BWh; n = 11) of mean annual streamflow (assuming a hypothetical storage size equal to the mean annual flow). Over 90% of north Australian rivers had a Base Flow Index of less than 0.4, 72% had negative annual lag-one autocorrelation values and in half the rivers sampled greater than 80% of the total flow occurred during the 3-month peak period. These data confirm that flow in the rivers of northern Australia is largely event driven and that the north Australian environment has limited natural storage capacity. Hence, there is relatively little opportunity in many northern rivers to actively harvest water for on-farm storage, particularly under environmental flow rules that stipulate that water can only be extracted during the falling limb of a hydrograph. Streamflow drought severity, the product of drought length and magnitude, was found to be greater in northern Australia than in similar climatic regions of the RoW, due to higher inter-annual variability increasing the drought magnitude over the course of normal drought lengths. The high likelihood of severe drought means that agriculturalists seeking to irrigate from rivers in northern Australia should have especially well developed drought contingency plans.

Estimating annual bole biomass production using uncertainty analysis

Treesearch

Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O' Connell

2007-01-01

Two common sampling methodologies coupled with a simple statistical model were evaluated to determine the accuracy and precision of annual bole biomass production (BBP) and inter-annual variability estimates using this type of approach. We performed an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with radial growth core data from trees in three Douglas...

Climate Variability and Yields of Major Staple Food Crops in Northern Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amikuzuno, J.

2012-12-01

Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.

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answer that question by examining the technical, infrastructure, economic, and policy barriers to greater intra-hour, inter-hour, seasonal, and inter-annual variability of solar resources-essential information powerful tool that provides essential information to policymakers, financiers, project developers, and

Interannual variability of mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate in an inter-tidal basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerkema, Theo; Duran-Matute, Matias

2017-12-01

The relationship between the annual wind records from a weather station and annual mean sea level in an inter-tidal basin, the Dutch Wadden Sea, is examined. Recent, homogeneous wind records are used, covering the past 2 decades. It is demonstrated that even such a relatively short record is sufficient for finding a convincing relationship. The interannual variability of mean sea level is largely explained by the west-east component of the net wind energy, with some further improvement if one also includes the south-north component and the annual mean atmospheric pressure. Using measured data from a weather station is found to give a slight improvement over reanalysis data, but for both the correlation between annual mean sea level and wind energy in the west-east direction is high. For different tide gauge stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find the same qualitative characteristics, but even within this small region, different locations show a different sensitivity of annual mean sea level to wind direction. Correcting observed values of annual mean level for meteorological factors reduces the margin of error (expressed as 95 % confidence interval) by more than a factor of 4 in the trends of the 20-year sea level record. Supplementary data from a numerical hydrodynamical model are used to illustrate the regional variability in annual mean sea level and its interannual variability at a high spatial resolution. This study implies that climatic changes in the strength of winds from a specific direction may affect local annual mean sea level quite significantly.

Inter-Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Mediterranean Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

VARIABILITY OF THE ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA IDENTIFIED FROM A SYNOPTIC MONTHLY GRIDDED DATABASE AS COMPARED WITH GDEM by...ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA IDENTIFIED FROM A SYNOPTIC MONTHLY GRIDDED DATABASE AS COMPARED WITH GDEM 5...profiles obtained from the synoptic monthly gridded World Ocean Database (SMD-WOD) and Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) temperature (T

Inter-annual variability of North Sea plaice spawning habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loots, C.; Vaz, S.; Koubbi, P.; Planque, B.; Coppin, F.; Verin, Y.

2010-11-01

Potential spawning habitat is defined as the area where environmental conditions are suitable for spawning to occur. Spawning adult data from the first quarter (January-March) of the International Bottom Trawl Survey have been used to study the inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat of North Sea plaice from 1980 to 2007. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used to create a model that related five environmental variables (depth, bottom temperature and salinity, seabed stress and sediment type) to presence-absence and abundance of spawning adults. Then, the habitat model was applied each year from 1970 to 2007 to predict inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat. Predicted responses obtained by GAM for each year were mapped using kriging. A hierarchical classification associated with a correspondence analysis was performed to cluster spawning suitable areas and to determine how they evolved across years. The potential spawning habitat was consistent with historical spawning ground locations described in the literature from eggs surveys. It was also found that the potential spawning habitat varied across years. Suitable areas were located in the southern part of the North Sea and along the eastern coast of England and Scotland in the eighties; they expanded further north from the nineties. Annual survey distributions did not show such northward expansion and remained located in the southern North Sea. This suggests that this species' actual spatial distribution remains stable against changing environmental conditions, and that the potential spawning habitat is not fully occupied. Changes in environmental conditions appear to remain within plaice environmental ranges, meaning that other factors may control the spatial distribution of plaice spawning habitat.

The FOODBANCS project: Introduction and sinking fluxes of organic carbon, chlorophyll- a and phytodetritus on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Craig R.; Mincks, Sarah; DeMaster, David J.

2008-11-01

The impact of the highly seasonal Antarctic primary production cycle on shelf benthic ecosystems remains poorly evaluated. Here we describe a times-series research project on the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) shelf designed to evaluate the seafloor deposition, and subsequent ecological and biogeochemical impacts, of the summer phytoplankton bloom along a transect crossing the Antarctic shelf near Anvers Island. During this project, entitled Food for Benthos on the Antarctic Continental Shelf (FOODBANCS), we deployed replicate sediment traps 150-170 m above the seafloor (total water-column depth of 590 m) on the central shelf from December 1999 to March 2001, recovering trap samples every 3-4 months. In addition, we used a seafloor time-lapse camera system, as well as video surveys conducted at 3-4 months intervals, to monitor the presence and accumulation of phytodetritus at the sediment-water interface. The fluxes of particulate organic carbon and chlorophyll- a into sediment traps (binned over 3-4 month intervals) showed patterns consistent with seasonal variability, with average summer fluxes during the first year exceeding winter fluxes by a factor of ˜2-3. However, inter-annual variability in summer fluxes was even greater than seasonal variability, with 4-10-fold differences in the flux of organic carbon and chlorophyll- a between the summer seasons of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001. Phytodetrital accumulation at the shelf floor also exhibited intense inter-annual variability, with no visible phytodetritus from essentially December 1999 to November 2000, followed by pulsed accumulation of 1-2 cm of phytodetritus over a ˜30,000 km 2 shelf area by March 2001. Comparisons with other studies suggest that the levels of inter-annual variability we observed are typical of the Antarctic shelf over decadal time scales. We conclude that fluxes of particulate organic carbon, chlorophyll- a and phytodetritus to WAP-shelf sediments vary intensely on seasonal to inter-annual time scales, yielding dramatic temporal variability in the flux of food for detritivores to the Antarctic shelf floor.

Twenty Years of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Imagery around Australia: Inter-Annual and Annual Variability

PubMed Central

Foster, Scott D.; Griffin, David A.; Dunstan, Piers K.

2014-01-01

The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale. PMID:24988444

[Temporal change in annual air temperature and heat island effect in a coastal city and an inland city at mid-latitude in China during 1956-1998].

PubMed

Chao, Lu-men; Sun, Jian-xin

2009-12-01

Temporal changes in air temperature and urban heat island (UHI) effects during 1956-1998 were compared between a coastal city, Ji' nan, and an inland city, Xi' an, which were similar in latitude, size and development. During 1956-1978, except that the annual mean minimum temperature in Ji' nan increased by 0.37 degrees C x 10 a(-1), the temperature variables in the two cities did not display any apparent trend. During 1979-1998, all temperature variables of the two cities showed an increasing trend. Comparing with that in Ji' nan, the increasing rate of annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean temperature in Xi' an was greater, but that of annual mean minimum temperature was smaller. In the two cities, heat island effect occurred during 1956-1978 but without any apparent trend, whereas during 1979-1998, this effect increased with time, especially in Xi' an where the annual mean minimum temperature and annual mean temperature increased by 0.22 degrees C x 10 a(-1) and 0.32 degrees C x 10 a(-1), respectively. Both the level and the inter-annual variation of the heat island effect were much greater in Ji' nan than in Xi' an, but the increasing rate of this effect was greater in Xi' an than in Ji' nan. Obvious differences were observed in the increasing rate of annual mean maximum air temperature, annual mean air temperature, and annual mean minimum temperature as well as the heat island effect in Ji' nan, whereas negligible differences were found in Xi' an. Among the three temperature variables, annual mean minimum temperature displayed the most obvious increasing trend and was most affected by heat island effect, while annual mean maximum temperature was most variable inter-annually. Geographical location not only affected the magnitude of urban warming, but also affected the mode of urban warming and the strength of heat island effect.

Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: the Australian case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Grant J.; Prior, Lynda D.; Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Murphy, Brett P.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2016-03-01

Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-derived active fire detections to determine day and night time fire activity, fire season start and end dates, and inter-annual variability, across 61 objectively defined climate regions in three climate zones (monsoon tropics, arid and temperate). We show that geographic patterns of landscape burning (onset and duration) are related to fire weather, resulting in a latitudinal gradient from the monsoon tropics in winter, through the arid zone in all seasons except winter, and then to the temperate zone in summer and autumn. Peak fire activity precedes maximum lightning activity by several months in all regions, signalling the importance of human ignitions in shaping fire seasons. We determined median daily McArthur forest fire danger index (FFDI50) for days and nights when fires were detected: FFDI50 varied substantially between climate zones, reflecting effects of fire management in the temperate zone, fuel limitation in the arid zone and abundance of flammable grasses in the monsoon tropical zone. We found correlations between the proportion of days when FFDI exceeds FFDI50 and the Southern Oscillation index across the arid zone during spring and summer, and Indian Ocean dipole mode index across south-eastern Australia during summer. Our study demonstrates that Australia has a long fire weather season with high inter-annual variability relative to all other continents, making it difficult to detect long term trends. It also provides a way of establishing robust baselines to track changes to fire seasons, and supports a previous conceptual model highlighting multi-temporal scale effects of climate in shaping continental-scale pyrogeography.

A methodology for probabilistic assessment of solar thermal power plants yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Peruchena, Carlos M.; Lara-Faneho, Vicente; Ramírez, Lourdes; Zarzalejo, Luis F.; Silva, Manuel; Bermejo, Diego; Gastón, Martín; Moreno, Sara; Pulgar, Jesús; Pavon, Manuel; Macías, Sergio; Valenzuela, Rita X.

2017-06-01

A detailed knowledge of the solar resource is a critical point to perform an economic feasibility analysis of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. This knowledge must include its magnitude (how much solar energy is available at an area of interest over a long time period), and its variability over time. In particular, DNI inter-annual variations may be large, increasing the return of investment risk in CSP plant projects. This risk is typically evaluated by means of the simulation of the energy delivered by the CSP plant during years with low solar irradiation, which are typically characterized by annual solar radiation datasets with high probability of exceedance of their annual DNI values. In this context, this paper proposes the use meteorological years representative of a given probability of exceedance of annual DNI in order to realistically assess the inter-annual variability of energy yields. The performance of this approach is evaluated in the location of Burns station (University of Oregon Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory), where a 34-year (from 1980 to 2013) measured data set of solar irradiance and temperature is available.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.

2018-01-01

It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.

Managment oriented analysis of sediment yield time compression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smetanova, Anna; Le Bissonnais, Yves; Raclot, Damien; Nunes, João P.; Licciardello, Feliciana; Le Bouteiller, Caroline; Latron, Jérôme; Rodríguez Caballero, Emilio; Mathys, Nicolle; Klotz, Sébastien; Mekki, Insaf; Gallart, Francesc; Solé Benet, Albert; Pérez Gallego, Nuria; Andrieux, Patrick; Moussa, Roger; Planchon, Olivier; Marisa Santos, Juliana; Alshihabi, Omran; Chikhaoui, Mohamed

2016-04-01

The understanding of inter- and intra-annual variability of sediment yield is important for the land use planning and management decisions for sustainable landscapes. It is of particular importance in the regions where the annual sediment yield is often highly dependent on the occurrence of few large events which produce the majority of sediments, such as in the Mediterranean. This phenomenon is referred as time compression, and relevance of its consideration growths with the increase in magnitude and frequency of extreme events due to climate change in many other regions. So far, time compression has ben studied mainly on events datasets, providing high resolution, but (in terms of data amount, required data precision and methods), demanding analysis. In order to provide an alternative simplified approach, the monthly and yearly time compressions were evaluated in eight Mediterranean catchments (of the R-OSMed network), representing a wide range of Mediterranean landscapes. The annual sediment yield varied between 0 to ~27100 Mg•km-2•a-1, and the monthly sediment yield between 0 to ~11600 Mg•km-2•month-1. The catchment's sediment yield was un-equally distributed at inter- and intra-annual scale, and large differences were observed between the catchments. Two types of time compression were distinguished - (i) the inter-annual (based on annual values) and intra- annual (based on monthly values). Four different rainfall-runoff-sediment yield time compression patterns were observed: (i) no time-compression of rainfall, runoff, nor sediment yield, (ii) low time compression of rainfall and runoff, but high compression of sediment yield, (iii) low compression of rainfall and high of runoff and sediment yield, and (iv) low, medium and high compression of rainfall, runoff and sediment yield. All four patterns were present at inter-annual scale, while at intra-annual scale only the two latter were present. This implies that high sediment yields occurred in particular months, even in catchment with low or no inter-annual time compression. The analysis of seasonality of time compression showed that in most of the catchments large sediment yields were more likely to occur between October and January, while in two catchments it was in summer (June and July). The appropriate sediment yield management measure: enhancement of soil properties, (dis)connectivity measures or vegetation cover, should therefore be selected with regard to the type of inter-annual time compression, to the properties of the individual catchments, and to the magnitudes of sediment yield. To increase the effectivity and lower the costs of the applied measures, the management in the months or periods when large sediment yields are most likely to occur should be prioritized. The analysis of the monthly time compression might be used for their identification in areas where no event datasets are available. The R-OSMed network of Mediterranean erosion research catchments was funded by "SicMed-Mistrals" grants from 2011 to 2014. Anna Smetanová has received the support of the European Union, in the framework of the Marie-Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through the award of an AgreenSkills' fellowship (under grant agreement n° 267196). João Pedro Nunes has received support from the European Union (in the framework of the European Social Fund) and the Portuguese Government under a post-doctoral fellowship (SFRH/BPD/87571/2012).

Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Min; Rafique, Rashid; Asrar, Ghassem R.

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest component of the global carbon cycle and a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. In this study, we used GPP estimates from a combination of eight global biome models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact-Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP2a), the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product, and a data-driven product (Model Tree Ensemble, MTE) to study the spatiotemporal variability of GPP at the regional and global levels. We found the 2000-2010 total global GPP estimated from the model ensemble to be 117±13 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± 1 standard deviation), whichmore » was higher than MODIS (112 Pg C yr-1), and close to the MTE (120 Pg C yr-1). The spatial patterns of MODIS, MTE and ISIMIP2a GPP generally agree well, but their temporal trends are different, and the seasonality and inter-annual variability of GPP at the regional and global levels are not completely consistent. For the model ensemble, Tropical Latin America contributes the most to global GPP, Asian regions contribute the most to the global GPP trend, the Northern Hemisphere regions dominate the global GPP seasonal variations, and Oceania is likely the largest contributor to inter-annual variability of global GPP. However, we observed large uncertainties across the eight ISIMIP2a models, which are probably due to the differences in the formulation of underlying photosynthetic processes. The results of this study are useful in understanding the contributions of different regions to global GPP and its spatiotemporal variability, how the model- and observational-based GPP estimates differ from each other in time and space, and the relative strength of the eight models. Our results also highlight the models’ ability to capture the seasonality of GPP that are essential for understanding the inter-annual and seasonal variability of GPP as a major component of the carbon cycle.« less

Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Min; Rafique, Rashid; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Ciais, Philippe; Zhao, Fang; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Ostberg, Sebastian; Chang, Jinfeng; Ito, Akihiko; Yang, Jia; Zeng, Ning; Kalnay, Eugenia; West, Tristram; Leng, Guoyong; Francois, Louis; Munhoven, Guy; Henrot, Alexandra; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Nishina, Kazuya; Viovy, Nicolas; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Betts, Richard; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Steinkamp, Jörg; Hickler, Thomas

2017-10-01

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest component of the global carbon cycle and a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. In this study, we used GPP estimates from a combination of eight global biome models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact-Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP2a), the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product, and a data-driven product (Model Tree Ensemble, MTE) to study the spatiotemporal variability of GPP at the regional and global levels. We found the 2000-2010 total global GPP estimated from the model ensemble to be 117 ± 13 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± 1 standard deviation), which was higher than MODIS (112 Pg C yr-1), and close to the MTE (120 Pg C yr-1). The spatial patterns of MODIS, MTE and ISIMIP2a GPP generally agree well, but their temporal trends are different, and the seasonality and inter-annual variability of GPP at the regional and global levels are not completely consistent. For the model ensemble, Tropical Latin America contributes the most to global GPP, Asian regions contribute the most to the global GPP trend, the Northern Hemisphere regions dominate the global GPP seasonal variations, and Oceania is likely the largest contributor to inter-annual variability of global GPP. However, we observed large uncertainties across the eight ISIMIP2a models, which are probably due to the differences in the formulation of underlying photosynthetic processes. The results of this study are useful in understanding the contributions of different regions to global GPP and its spatiotemporal variability, how the model- and observational-based GPP estimates differ from each other in time and space, and the relative strength of the eight models. Our results also highlight the models’ ability to capture the seasonality of GPP that are essential for understanding the inter-annual and seasonal variability of GPP as a major component of the carbon cycle.

Inter-Annual Variability in Stream Water Temperature, Microclimate and Heat Exchanges: a Comparison of Forest and Moorland Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G.; Hannah, D. M.; Malcolm, I.; Sadler, J. P.

2012-12-01

Riparian forest is recognised as important for moderating stream temperature variability and has the potential to mitigate thermal extremes in a changing climate. Previous research on the heat exchanges controlling water column temperature has often been short-term or seasonally-constrained, with the few multi-year studies limited to a maximum of two years. This study advances previous work by providing a longer-term perspective which allows assessment of inter-annual variability in stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange dynamics between a semi-natural woodland and a moorland (no trees) reach of the Girnock Burn, a tributary of the Scottish Dee. Automatic weather stations collected 15-minute data over seven consecutive years, which to our knowledge is a unique data set in providing the longest term perspective to date on stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange processes. Results for spring-summer indicate that the presence of a riparian canopy has a consistent effect between years in reducing the magnitude and variability of mean daily water column temperature and daily net energy totals. Differences in the magnitude and variability in net energy fluxes between the study reaches were driven primarily by fluctuations in net radiation and latent heat fluxes in response to between- and within-year variability in growth of the riparian forest canopy at the forest and prevailing weather conditions at both the forest and moorland. This research provides new insights on the inter-annual variability of stream energy exchanges for moorland and forested reaches under a wide range of climatological and hydrological conditions. The findings therefore provide a more robust process basis for modelling the impact of changes in forest practice and climate change on river thermal dynamics.

Inter and intra-estuary variability in ingress, condition and settlement of the American eel Anguilla rostrata: implications for estimating and understanding recruitment.

PubMed

Sullivan, M C; Wuenschel, M J; Able, K W

2009-06-01

The objective of this study was to quantify spatial and temporal variability of anguillid glass eel ingress within and between adjacent watersheds in order to help illuminate the mechanisms moderating annual recruitment. Because single fixed locations are often used to assess annual recruitment, the intra-annual dynamics of ingress across multiple sites often remains unresolved. To address this question, plankton nets and eel collectors were deployed weekly to synoptically quantify early stage Anguilla rostrata abundance at 12 sites across two New Jersey estuaries over an ingress season. Numbers of early-stage glass eels collected at the inlet mouths were moderately variable within and between estuaries over time and showed evidence for weak lunar phase and water temperature correlations. The relative condition of glass eels, although highly variable, declined significantly over the ingress season and indicated a tendency for lower condition A. rostrata to colonize sites in the lower estuary. Accumulations of glass eels and early-stage elvers retrieved from collectors (one to >1500 A. rostrata per collector) at lower estuary sites were highly variable over time, producing only weak correlations between estuaries. By way of contrast, development into late-stage elvers, coupled with the large-scale colonization of up-river sites, was highly synchronized between and within estuaries and contingent on water temperatures reaching c. 10-12 degrees C. Averaged over the ingress season, abundance estimates were remarkably consistent between paired sites across estuaries, indicating a low degree of interestuary variability. Within an estuary, however, abundance estimates varied considerably depending on location. These results and methodology have important implications for the planning and interpretation of early-stage anguillid eel surveys as well as the understanding of the dynamic nature of ingress and the spatial scales over which recruitment varies.

Monitoring snow cover variability (2000-2014) in the Hengduan Mountains based on cloud-removed MODIS products with an adaptive spatio-temporal weighted method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinghua; Fu, Wenxuan; Shen, Huanfeng; Huang, Chunlin; Zhang, Liangpei

2017-08-01

Monitoring the variability of snow cover is necessary and meaningful because snow cover is closely connected with climate and ecological change. In this work, 500 m resolution MODIS daily snow cover products from 2000 to 2014 were adopted to analyze the status in Hengduan Mountains. In order to solve the spatial discontinuity caused by clouds in the products, we propose an adaptive spatio-temporal weighted method (ASTWM), which is based on the initial result of a Terra and Aqua combination. This novel method simultaneously considers the temporal and spatial correlations of the snow cover. The simulated experiments indicate that ASTWM removes clouds completely, with a robust overall accuracy (OA) of above 93% under different cloud fractions. The spatio-temporal variability of snow cover in the Hengduan Mountains was investigated with two indices: snow cover days (SCD) and snow fraction. The results reveal that the annual SCD gradually increases and the coefficient of variation (CV) decreases with elevation. The pixel-wise trends of SCD first rise and then drop in most areas. Moreover, intense intra-annual variability of the snow fraction occurs from October to March, during which time there is abundant snow cover. The inter-annual variability, which mainly occurs in high elevation areas, shows an increasing trend before 2004/2005 and a decreasing trend after 2004/2005. In addition, the snow fraction responds to the two climate factors of air temperature and precipitation. For the intra-annual variability, when the air temperature and precipitation decrease, the snow cover increases. Besides, precipitation plays a more important role in the inter-annual variability of snow cover than temperature.

Secular Change and Inter-annual Variability of the Gulf Stream Position, 1993-2013, 70°-55°W

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisagni, J. J.; Gangopadhyay, A.

2016-12-01

The Gulf Stream (GS) is the northeastward-flowing surface limb of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) "conveyer belt" that flows towards Europe and the Nordic Seas. Changes in the GS position after its separation from the coast at Cape Hatteras, i.e., from 75°W to 50°W, may be key to understanding the AMOC, sea level variability and ecosystem behavior along the east coast of North America. In this study we compare secular change and inter-annual variability (IAV) of annual mean Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW) position with equator-ward Labrador Current (LC) transport along the southwestern Grand Banks near 52° W using 21 years (1993-2013) of satellite altimeter data. Results at 70°, 65°, 60° and 55° W show a southward secular trend for the GSNW, decreasing to the west. IAV of de-trended GSNW position residuals also decreases to the west. The long-term secular trend of annual mean upper layer LC transport increases near 52° W. Furthermore, IAV of LC transport residuals near 52° W is significantly correlated with GSNW position residuals at 55° W at a lag of +1-year. Spectral analysis reveals inter-annual peaks at 5-7 years and 2-3 years for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), GSNW (65°-55°W) and LC transport for 1993-2013. A volume calculation using the LC rms residual of +1.04 Sv near 52° W results in an estimated GSNW residual of 79 km, or 63% of the observed 125.6 km (1.13°) rms value at 55° W. A similar volume calculation using the positive long-term, upper-layer LC transport trend accounts for 68% of the observed southward shift of the GSNW over the 1993-2013 period. Our work provides observational evidence of direct interaction between the upper layers of the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyres within the North Atlantic over secular and inter-annual time scales as suggested by previous workers.

Tradeoffs between vegetation management goals and livestock production under Adapative Grazing Management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rangeland ecosystems are characterized by substantial temporal variability in weather overlaid on spatial variability associated with topography and soils (Fuhlendorf et al. 2012). Semiarid rangelands in particular are characterized by more extreme intra- and inter-annual variation in precipitation ...

Southern Hemisphere Carbon Monoxide Inferannual Variability Observed by Terra/Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, D. P.; Petron, G.; Novelli, P. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Gille, J. C.; Drummond, J. R.

2010-01-01

Biomass burning is an annual occurrence in the tropical southern hemisphere (SH) and represents a major source of regional pollution. Vegetation fires emit carbon monoxide (CO), which due to its medium lifetime is an excellent tracer of tropospheric transport. CO is also one of the few tropospheric trace gases currently observed from satellite and this provides long-term global measurements. In this paper, we use the 5 year CO data record from the Measurement Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument to examine the inter-annual variability of the SH CO loading and show how this relates to climate conditions which determine the intensity of fire sources. The MOPITT observations show an annual austral springtime peak in the SH zonal CO loading each year with dry-season biomass burning emissions in S. America, southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and northwestern Australia. Although fires in southern Africa and S. America typically produce the greatest amount of CO, the most significant inter-annual variation is due to varying fire activity and emissions from the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. We find that this variation in turn correlates well with the El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index. Between 2000 and 2005, emissions were greatest in late 2002 and an inverse modeling of the MOPITT data using the MOZART chemical transport model estimates the southeast Asia regional fire source for the year August 2002 to September 2003 to be 52 Tg CO. Comparison of the MOPITT retrievals and NOAA surface network measurements indicate that the latter do not fully capture the inter-annual variability or the seasonal range of the CO zonal average concentration due to biases associated with atmospheric and geographic sampling.

Hydrological excitation of polar motion by different variables of the GLDAS models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta

Continental hydrological loading, by land water, snow, and ice, is an element that is strongly needed for a full understanding of the excitation of polar motion. In this study we compute different estimations of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (Hydrological Angular Momentum - HAM) using various variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of land hydrosphere. The main aim of this study is to show the influence of different variables for example: total evapotranspiration, runoff, snowmelt, soil moisture to polar motion excitations in annual and short term scale. In our consideration we employ several realizations of the GLDAS model as: GLDAS Common Land Model (CLM), GLDAS Mosaic Model, GLDAS National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Oregon State University/Air Force/Hydrologic Research Lab Model (Noah), GLDAS Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion, both global and regional, are determined by using selected variables of these GLDAS realizations. First we compare a timing, spectra and phase diagrams of different regional and global HAMs with each other. Next, we estimate, the hydrological signal in geodetically observed polar motion excitation by subtracting the atmospheric -- AAM (pressure + wind) and oceanic -- OAM (bottom pressure + currents) contributions. Finally, the hydrological excitations are compared to these hydrological signal in observed polar motion excitation series. The results help us understand which variables of considered hydrological models are the most important for the polar motion excitation and how well we can close polar motion excitation budget in the seasonal and inter-annual spectral ranges.

[Application of regression tree in analyzing the effects of climate factors on NDVI in loess hilly area of Shaanxi Province].

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Lü, Yi-he; Zheng, Hai-feng; Chen, Li-ding

2010-05-01

Based on the 10-day SPOT VEGETATION NDVI data and the daily meteorological data from 1998 to 2007 in Yan' an City, the main meteorological variables affecting the annual and interannual variations of NDVI were determined by using regression tree. It was found that the effects of test meteorological variables on the variability of NDVI differed with seasons and time lags. Temperature and precipitation were the most important meteorological variables affecting the annual variation of NDVI, and the average highest temperature was the most important meteorological variable affecting the inter-annual variation of NDVI. Regression tree was very powerful in determining the key meteorological variables affecting NDVI variation, but could not build quantitative relations between NDVI and meteorological variables, which limited its further and wider application.

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Asynchrony in the inter-annual recruitment of lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis in the Great Lakes region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zischke, Mitchell T.; Bunnell, David B.; Troy, Cary D.; Berglund, Eric K.; Caroffino, David C.; Ebener, Mark P.; He, Ji X.; Sitar, Shawn P.; Hook, Tomas O.

2017-01-01

Spatially separated fish populations may display synchrony in annual recruitment if the factors that drive recruitment success, particularly abiotic factors such as temperature, are synchronised across broad spatial scales. We examined inter-annual variation in recruitment among lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) populations in lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior using fishery-dependent and -independent data from 1971 to 2014. Relative year-class strength (RYCS) was calculated from catch-curve residuals for each year class across multiple sampling years. Pairwise comparison of RYCS among datasets revealed no significant associations either within or between lakes, suggesting that recruitment of lake whitefish is spatially asynchronous. There was no consistent correlation between pairwise agreement and the distance between datasets, and models to estimate the spatial scale of recruitment synchrony did not fit well to these data. This suggests that inter-annual recruitment variation of lake whitefish is asynchronous across broad spatial scales in the Great Lakes. While our method primarily evaluated year-to-year recruitment variation, it is plausible that recruitment of lake whitefish varies at coarser temporal scales (e.g. decadal). Nonetheless, our findings differ from research on some other Coregonus species and suggest that local biotic or density-dependent factors may contribute strongly to lake whitefish recruitment rather than inter-annual variability in broad-scale abiotic factors.

Climate change impact on the annual water balance in the northwest Florida coastal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizad, K.; Wang, D.; Alimohammadi, N.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

As the largest tributary to the Apalachicola River, the Chipola River originates in southern Alabama, flows through Florida Panhandle and ended to Gulf of Mexico. The Chipola watershed is located in an intermediate climate environment with aridity index around one. Watershed provides habitat for a number of threatened and endangered animal and plant species. However, climate change affects hydrologic cycle of Chipola River watershed at various temporal and spatial scales. Studying the effects of climate variations is of great importance for water and environmental management purposes in this catchment. This research is mainly focuses on assessing climate change impact on the partitioning pattern of rainfall from mean annual to inter-annual and to seasonal scales. At the mean annual scale, rainfall is partitioned into runoff and evaporation assuming negligible water storage changes. Mean annual runoff is controlled by both mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation. Changes in long term mean runoff caused by variations of long term mean precipitation and potential evaporation will be evaluated based on Budyko hypothesis. At the annual scale, rainfall is partitioned into runoff, evaporation, and storage change. Inter-annual variability of runoff and evaporation are mainly affected by the changes of mean annual climate variables as well as their inter-annual variability. In order to model and evaluate each component of water balance at the annual scale, parsimonious but reliable models, are developed. Budyko hypothesis on the existing balance between available water and energy supply is reconsidered and redefined for the sub-annual time scale and reconstructed accordingly in order to accurately model seasonal hydrologic balance of the catchment. Models are built in the seasonal time frame with a focus on the role of storage change in water cycle. Then for Chipola catchment, models are parameterized based on a sufficient time span of historical data and the their coefficients are quantified. For necessary future predictions, data obtained from climate regional models starting 2040 to 2069 will be utilized. To accommodate the inherent uncertainty of climate projections, an ensemble of regional climate models will be used to assess changes of rainfall and potential evaporation. Then, the climate change impact on seasonal and annual runoff, evaporation, and water storage changes will be projected.

Rethinking "normal": The role of stochasticity in the phenology of a synchronously breeding seabird.

PubMed

Youngflesh, Casey; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Hinke, Jefferson T; DuBois, Lauren; St Leger, Judy; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z; Trivelpiece, Susan G; Lynch, Heather J

2018-05-01

Phenological changes have been observed in a variety of systems over the past century. There is concern that, as a consequence, ecological interactions are becoming increasingly mismatched in time, with negative consequences for ecological function. Significant spatial heterogeneity (inter-site) and temporal variability (inter-annual) can make it difficult to separate intrinsic, extrinsic and stochastic drivers of phenological variability. The goal of this study was to understand the timing and variability in breeding phenology of Adélie penguins under fixed environmental conditions and to use those data to identify a "null model" appropriate for disentangling the sources of variation in wild populations. Data on clutch initiation were collected from both wild and captive populations of Adélie penguins. Clutch initiation in the captive population was modelled as a function of year, individual and age to better understand phenological patterns observed in the wild population. Captive populations displayed as much inter-annual variability in breeding phenology as wild populations, suggesting that variability in breeding phenology is the norm and thus may be an unreliable indicator of environmental forcing. The distribution of clutch initiation dates was found to be moderately asymmetric (right skewed) both in the wild and in captivity, consistent with the pattern expected under social facilitation. The role of stochasticity in phenological processes has heretofore been largely ignored. However, these results suggest that inter-annual variability in breeding phenology can arise independent of any environmental or demographic drivers and that synchronous breeding can enhance inherent stochasticity. This complicates efforts to relate phenological variation to environmental variability in the wild. Accordingly, we must be careful to consider random forcing in phenological processes, lest we fit models to data dominated by random noise. This is particularly true for colonial species where breeding synchrony may outweigh each individual's effort to time breeding with optimal environmental conditions. Our study highlights the importance of identifying appropriate null models for studying phenology. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Spatio-temporal analysis of annual rainfall in Crete, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Corzo, Gerald A.; Karatzas, George P.; Kotsopoulou, Anastasia

2018-03-01

Analysis of rainfall data from the island of Crete, Greece was performed to identify key hydrological years and return periods as well as to analyze the inter-annual behavior of the rainfall variability during the period 1981-2014. The rainfall spatial distribution was also examined in detail to identify vulnerable areas of the island. Data analysis using statistical tools and spectral analysis were applied to investigate and interpret the temporal course of the available rainfall data set. In addition, spatial analysis techniques were applied and compared to determine the rainfall spatial distribution on the island of Crete. The analysis presented that in contrast to Regional Climate Model estimations, rainfall rates have not decreased, while return periods vary depending on seasonality and geographic location. A small but statistical significant increasing trend was detected in the inter-annual rainfall variations as well as a significant rainfall cycle almost every 8 years. In addition, statistically significant correlation of the island's rainfall variability with the North Atlantic Oscillation is identified for the examined period. On the other hand, regression kriging method combining surface elevation as secondary information improved the estimation of the annual rainfall spatial variability on the island of Crete by 70% compared to ordinary kriging. The rainfall spatial and temporal trends on the island of Crete have variable characteristics that depend on the geographical area and on the hydrological period.

High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, Miguel; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Cardoso, Rita M.

2018-05-01

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (< 10% for both scenarios), negative values in winter and spring (up to - 10% (- 20%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)), and stronger negative anomalies in autumn (up to - 25% (- 35%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)). These projected WED anomalies displayed large sub-regional variability. The largest reductions (and lowest increases) are linked to the northern and central-eastern elevated terrain, and the southwestern coast. In contrast, the largest increases (and lowest reductions) are linked to the central-western orographic features of moderate elevation. The projections also showed changes in inter-annual variability of WED, with small increases for annual averages, but with distinct behavior when considering year-to-year variability over a specific season: small increases in winter, larger increases in summer, slight decrease in autumn, and no relevant change in spring. The changes in inter-annual variability also displayed strong dependence on the underlying terrain. Finally, we found significant model spread in the magnitude of projected WED anomalies and inter-annual variability, affecting even the signal of the changes.

Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

2016-08-01

This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

PubMed

Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

2017-12-31

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of vaccination coverage and climate on Japanese encephalitis in Sarawak, Malaysia.

PubMed

Impoinvil, Daniel E; Ooi, Mong How; Diggle, Peter J; Caminade, Cyril; Cardosa, Mary Jane; Morse, Andrew P; Baylis, Matthew; Solomon, Tom

2013-01-01

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis across Asia with approximately 70,000 cases a year and 10,000 to 15,000 deaths. Because JE incidence varies widely over time, partly due to inter-annual climate variability effects on mosquito vector abundance, it becomes more complex to assess the effects of a vaccination programme since more or less climatically favourable years could also contribute to a change in incidence post-vaccination. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify vaccination effect on confirmed Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in Sarawak, Malaysia after controlling for climate variability to better understand temporal dynamics of JE virus transmission and control. Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases. This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored.

Seasonal weather-related decision making for cattle production in the Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

High inter-annual variability of seasonal weather patterns can greatly affect forage and therefore livestock production in the Northern Great Plains. This variability can make it difficult for ranchers to set yearly stocking rates, particularly in advance of the grazing season. To better understand ...

Net ecosystem carbon exchange of a dry temperate eucalypt forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinko-Najera, Nina; Isaac, Peter; Beringer, Jason; van Gorsel, Eva; Ewenz, Cacilia; McHugh, Ian; Exbrayat, Jean-François; Livesley, Stephen J.; Arndt, Stefan K.

2017-08-01

Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle by sequestering a considerable fraction of anthropogenic CO2, thereby contributing to climate change mitigation. However, there is a gap in our understanding about the carbon dynamics of eucalypt (broadleaf evergreen) forests in temperate climates, which might differ from temperate evergreen coniferous or deciduous broadleaved forests given their fundamental differences in physiology, phenology and growth dynamics. To address this gap we undertook a 3-year study (2010-2012) of eddy covariance measurements in a dry temperate eucalypt forest in southeastern Australia. We determined the annual net carbon balance and investigated the temporal (seasonal and inter-annual) variability in and environmental controls of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). The forest was a large and constant carbon sink throughout the study period, even in winter, with an overall mean NEE of -1234 ± 109 (SE) g C m-2 yr-1. Estimated annual ER was similar for 2010 and 2011 but decreased in 2012 ranging from 1603 to 1346 g C m-2 yr-1, whereas GPP showed no significant inter-annual variability, with a mean annual estimate of 2728 ± 39 g C m-2 yr-1. All ecosystem carbon fluxes had a pronounced seasonality, with GPP being greatest during spring and summer and ER being highest during summer, whereas peaks in NEE occurred in early spring and again in summer. High NEE in spring was likely caused by a delayed increase in ER due to low temperatures. A strong seasonal pattern in environmental controls of daytime and night-time NEE was revealed. Daytime NEE was equally explained by incoming solar radiation and air temperature, whereas air temperature was the main environmental driver of night-time NEE. The forest experienced unusual above-average annual rainfall during the first 2 years of this 3-year period so that soil water content remained relatively high and the forest was not water limited. Our results show the potential of temperate eucalypt forests to sequester large amounts of carbon when not water limited. However, further studies using bottom-up approaches are needed to validate measurements from the eddy covariance flux tower and to account for a possible underestimation in ER due to advection fluxes.

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Fodor, Nándor; Foskolos, Andreas; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Moorby, Jon M; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H

2018-01-01

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfron, Giacinto; Delmotte, Sylvestre; Busetto, Lorenzo; Hossard, Laure; Ranghetti, Luigi; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Boschetti, Mirco

2017-05-01

Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002-2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.

Masting in ponderosa pine: comparisons of pollen and seed over space and time.

PubMed

Mooney, Kailen A; Linhart, Yan B; Snyder, Marc A

2011-03-01

Many plant species exhibit variable and synchronized reproduction, or masting, but less is known of the spatial scale of synchrony, effects of climate, or differences between patterns of pollen and seed production. We monitored pollen and seed cone production for seven Pinus ponderosa populations (607 trees) separated by up to 28 km and 1,350 m in elevation in Boulder County, Colorado, USA for periods of 4-31 years for a mean per site of 8.7 years for pollen and 12.1 for seed cone production. We also analyzed climate data and a published dataset on 21 years of seed production for an eighth population (Manitou) 100 km away. Individual trees showed high inter-annual variation in reproduction. Synchrony was high within populations, but quickly became asynchronous among populations with a combination of increasing distance and elevational difference. Inter-annual variation in temperature and precipitation had differing influences on seed production for Boulder County and Manitou. We speculate that geographically variable effects of climate on reproduction arise from environmental heterogeneity and population genetic differentiation, which in turn result in localized synchrony. Although individual pines produce pollen and seed, only one-third of the covariation within trees was shared. As compared to seed cones, pollen had lower inter-annual variation at the level of the individual tree and was more synchronous. However, pollen and seed production were similar with respect to inter-annual variation at the population level, spatial scales of synchrony and associations with climate. Our results show that strong masting can occur at a localized scale, and that reproductive patterns can differ between pollen and seed cone production in a hermaphroditic plant.

Seasonal, inter-annual and decadal drivers of tree and grass productivity in an Australian tropical savanna.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, C.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L. B.; Evans, B. J.; Tapper, N. J.; Donohue, R. J.; Exbrayat, J. F.

2016-12-01

Tree-grass savannas are a widespread biome and are highly valued for their ecosystem services. Natural or anthropogenic shifts in the savanna tree-grass ratio have wide-reaching implications for food production, timber harvesting, biodiversity, the water cycle and carbon sequestration. It is important to understand the long-term dynamics and drivers of both tree and grass productivity separately, in order to successfully manage savannas in the future. This study investigates the inter-annual variability (IAV) of tree (overstory) and grass (understory) productivity at the Howard Springs OzFlux/Fluxnet site by combining a long-term (15 year) eddy covariance flux record and DIFFUSE model estimates of tree and grass productivity inferred from satellite remote sensing. On a seasonal basis, the primary drivers of overstory and understory productivity were solar radiation in the wet season and soil moisture in the dry season, with deeper soil layers becoming more important as the dry season progressed. On an inter-annual basis, variability in the amount of annual rainfall and length of the rainy season determined soil water availability, which had a positive effect on overstory productivity and a negative effect on understory productivity. No linear trend in the tree-grass ratio was observed over the 15-year study period, indicating that woody encroachment was not occurring to a significant degree at the study site. However, the tree-grass ratio was well correlated with modes of climate variability, namely the Southern Oscillation Index. This study has provided important insight into the long-term contributions of trees and grasses to savanna productivity, along with the respective drivers of IAV. The results will contribute towards model development and building better links with remote sensing techniques in order to more comprehensively monitor savanna structure and function across space and time.

Disentangling nutrient concentrations trends in transfer pathways of agricultural watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellander, P. E.; Jordan, P.

2017-12-01

Targeted schemes designed to attenuate agricultural pollution to water are needed to reach goals of sustainable food production. Such approaches require insight into temporal and spatial variability in the most representative flows and active pollution transfer pathways. Interpreting changes in total stream flow can be misleading since some changes may only be apparent in specific pathways. The aim of this study was to investigate changing land use pressures on water quality. The objectives were to assess intra-annual and inter-annual changes in phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) concentrations and loads in apportioned pathways. Pathways were separated using hydrograph and loadograph separation techniques on a seven-year dataset of sub-hourly river discharge and concentrations of NO3-N, reactive P and total P in two intensively managed agricultural watersheds of contrasting hydrology in Ireland. Active transfer pathways were dictated by soil drainage. There were intra-annual variability in both P and N concentrations in different pathways and loads, and these had the largest influence of all-year baseflow (BF) concentrations and summer quickflow (QF) concentrations. Nutrient loss responded to seasonality in the river discharge in all pathways in both watersheds and was mostly transport limited. In both watersheds there were inter-annual trends in P concentration in some pathways and seasons that did not correspond to the trend of total river P concentration. The response in stream water quality to management, mitigation measures and changes in weather may be hidden by counteracting responses in different pathways. The hydrology had a major impact on seasonal changes in N and P loss. By apportioning different transfer pathways more information on the temporal and site-specific nature of nutrient transfer was provided. BF and QF pathways largely contributed to the river P concentrations in summer while all pathways contributed to the P and N loads in wintertime. The data indicated that increasing trends in river P concentrations were mostly linked to trends in BF concentration in both catchment types. This may be explained by increased point source influence, increased vertical transfer through increased soil P loading, or decreased stream bed attenuation. Each will require different policy considerations.

Increased resiliency and activity of microbial mediated carbon cycling enzymes in diversified bioenergy cropping systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upton, R.; Bach, E.; Hofmockel, K. S.

2017-12-01

Microbes are mediators of soil carbon (C) and are influenced in membership and activity by nitrogen (N) fertilization and inter-annual abiotic factors. Microbial communities and their extracellular enzyme activities (EEA) are important parameters that influence ecosystem C cycling properties and are often included in microbial explicit C cycling models. In an effort to generate model relevant, empirical findings, we investigated how both microbial community structure and C degrading enzyme activity are influenced by inter-annual variability and N inputs in bioenergy crops. Our study was performed at the Comparison of Biofuel Systems field-site from 2011 to 2014, in three bioenergy cropping systems, continuous corn (CC) and two restored prairies, both fertilized (FP) and unfertilized (P). We hypothesized microbial community structure would diverge during the prairie restoration, leading to changes in C cycling enzymes over time. Using a sequencing approach (16S and ITS) we determined the bacterial and fungal community structure response to the cropping system, fertilization, and inter-annual variability. Additionally, we used EEA of β-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, and β-xylosidase to determine inter-annual and ecosystem impacts on microbial activity. Our results show cropping system was a main effect for microbial community structure, with corn diverging from both prairies to be less diverse. Inter-annual changes showed that a drought occurring in 2012 significantly impacted microbial community structure in both the P and CC, decreasing microbial richness. However, FP increased in microbial richness, suggesting the application of N increased resiliency to drought. Similarly, the only year in which C cycling enzymes were impacted by ecosystem was 2012, with FP supporting higher potential enzymatic activity then CC and P. The highest EEA across all ecosystems occurred in 2014, suggesting the continued root biomass and litter build-up in this no till system provides increased C cycling activity. Our results showed that diverse cropping systems still benefit from N fertilization to confer resiliency to abiotic stress factors. Long-term studies for microbial mediation of soil C are necessary for modeling the impacts of restoration on SOC to assure inclusion of sustainability and resiliency.

Regional meteorological drivers and long term trends of winter-spring nitrate dynamics across watersheds in northeastern North America

Treesearch

Jill Crossman; M. Catherine Eimers; Nora J. Casson; Douglas A. Burns; John L. Campbell; Gene E. Likens; Myron J. Mitchell; Sarah J. Nelson; James B. Shanley; Shaun A. Watmough; Kara L. Webster

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the contribution of winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events to annual and seasonal nitrate (N-NO3) export and identified the regional meteorological drivers of inter-annual variability in ROS N-NO3 export (ROS-N) at 9 headwater streams located across Ontario, Canada and the northeastern United States. Although...

Seasonal migrations, body temperature fluctuations, and infection dynamics in adult amphibians.

PubMed

Daversa, David R; Monsalve-Carcaño, Camino; Carrascal, Luis M; Bosch, Jaime

2018-01-01

Risks of parasitism vary over time, with infection prevalence often fluctuating with seasonal changes in the annual cycle. Identifying the biological mechanisms underlying seasonality in infection can enable better prediction and prevention of future infection peaks. Obtaining longitudinal data on individual infections and traits across seasons throughout the annual cycle is perhaps the most effective means of achieving this aim, yet few studies have obtained such information for wildlife. Here, we tracked spiny common toads ( Bufo spinosus ) within and across annual cycles to assess seasonal variation in movement, body temperatures and infection from the fungal parasite, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) . Across annual cycles, toads did not consistently sustain infections but instead gained and lost infections from year to year. Radio-tracking showed that infected toads lose infections during post-breeding migrations, and no toads contracted infection following migration, which may be one explanation for the inter-annual variability in Bd infections. We also found pronounced seasonal variation in toad body temperatures. Body temperatures approached 0 °C during winter hibernation but remained largely within the thermal tolerance range of Bd . These findings provide direct documentation of migratory recovery (i.e., loss of infection during migration) and escape in a wild population. The body temperature reductions that we observed during hibernation warrant further consideration into the role that this period plays in seasonal Bd dynamics.

Seasonal migrations, body temperature fluctuations, and infection dynamics in adult amphibians

PubMed Central

Daversa, David R.; Monsalve-Carcaño, Camino; Carrascal, Luis M.

2018-01-01

Risks of parasitism vary over time, with infection prevalence often fluctuating with seasonal changes in the annual cycle. Identifying the biological mechanisms underlying seasonality in infection can enable better prediction and prevention of future infection peaks. Obtaining longitudinal data on individual infections and traits across seasons throughout the annual cycle is perhaps the most effective means of achieving this aim, yet few studies have obtained such information for wildlife. Here, we tracked spiny common toads (Bufo spinosus) within and across annual cycles to assess seasonal variation in movement, body temperatures and infection from the fungal parasite, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Across annual cycles, toads did not consistently sustain infections but instead gained and lost infections from year to year. Radio-tracking showed that infected toads lose infections during post-breeding migrations, and no toads contracted infection following migration, which may be one explanation for the inter-annual variability in Bd infections. We also found pronounced seasonal variation in toad body temperatures. Body temperatures approached 0 °C during winter hibernation but remained largely within the thermal tolerance range of Bd. These findings provide direct documentation of migratory recovery (i.e., loss of infection during migration) and escape in a wild population. The body temperature reductions that we observed during hibernation warrant further consideration into the role that this period plays in seasonal Bd dynamics. PMID:29761041

Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hytteborn, Julia K.; Temnerud, Johan; Alexander, Richard B.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Futter, Martyn N.; Fröberg, Mats; Dahné, Joel; Bishop, Kevin H.

2015-01-01

Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type).Catchment area (0.18–47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p < 0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l− 1 (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l− 1 year− 1 (1.6% year− 1).Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality.Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly.

Temporal and taxonomic contrasts in coral growth at Davies Reef, central Great Barrier Reef, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Kristen D.; Cantin, Neal E.; Heron, Scott F.; Lough, Janice M.; Pratchett, Morgan S.

2018-06-01

Demographic processes, such as growth, can have an important influence on the population and community structure of reef-building corals. Importantly, ongoing changes in environmental conditions (e.g. ocean warming) are expected to affect coral growth, contributing to changes in the structure of coral populations and communities. This study quantified contemporary growth rates (linear extension and calcification) for the staghorn coral, Acropora muricata, at Davies Reef, central Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Growth rates were measured at three different depths (5, 10, and 15 m) over 2 yr (2012-2014) assessing both seasonal and inter-annual variability. Results of this study were compared to equivalent measurements made in 1980-1982 at the same location. To assist in understanding inter-annual variability in coral growth, we also examined annual growth bands from massive Porites providing continuous growth and records of flooding history for Davies Reef over the period 1979-2012. Linear extension rates of A. muricata were substantially (11-62%) lower in 2012-2014 compared to 1980-1982, especially at 10 and 15 m depths. These declines in growth coincide with a + 0.14 °C change in annual mean temperature. For massive Porites, however, calcification rates were highly variable among years and there was no discernible long-term change in growth despite sustained increases in temperature of 0.064 °C per decade. Apparent differences in the growth rates of Acropora between 1980-1982 and 2012-2014 may reflect inter-annual variation in coral growth (as seen for massive Porites), though it is known branching Acropora is much more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than massive corals. There are persistent issues in assessing the sensitivities of branching corals to environmental change due to limited capacity for retrospective analyses of growth, but given their disproportionate contribution to habitat complexity and reef structure, it is critical to ascertain whether there are increasing impacts on their demography.

On the fog variability over south Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syed, F. S.; Körnich, H.; Tjernström, M.

2012-12-01

An increasing trend in fog frequencies over south Asia during winter in the last few decades has resulted in large economical losses and has caused substantial difficulties in the daily lives of people. In order to better understand the fog phenomenon, we investigated the climatology, inter-annual variability and trends in the fog occurrence from 1976 to 2010 using observational data from 82 stations, well distributed over India and Pakistan. Fog blankets large area from Pakistan to Bangladesh across north India from west to east running almost parallel to south of the Himalayas. An EOF analysis revealed that the fog variability over the whole region is coupled and therefore must be governed by some large scale phenomenon on the inter-annual time scale. Significant positive trends were found in the fog frequency but this increase is not gradual, as with the humidity, but comprises of two distinct regimes shifts, in 1990 and 1998, with respect to both mean and variance. The fog is also detected in ERA-Interim 3 hourly, surface and model level forecast data when using the concept of "cross-over temperature" combined with boundary layer stability. This fog index is able to reproduce the regime shift around 1998 and shows that the method can be applied to analyze fog over south Asia. The inter-annual variability seems to be associated with the wave train originating from the North Atlantic in the upper troposphere that when causing higher pressure over the region results in an increased boundary layer stability and surface-near relative humidity. The trend and shifts in the fog occurrence seems to be associated with the gradual increasing trend in relative humidity from 1990 onwards.

Effects of model spatial resolution on ecohydrologic predictions and their sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability

Treesearch

Kyongho Son; Christina Tague; Carolyn Hunsaker

2016-01-01

The effect of fine-scale topographic variability on model estimates of ecohydrologic responses to climate variability in California’s Sierra Nevada watersheds has not been adequately quantified and may be important for supporting reliable climate-impact assessments. This study tested the effect of digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on model accuracy and estimates...

Trends and Controls of inter-annual Variability in the Carbon Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.

2014-12-01

The climate sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget will substantially affect the sign and strength of the land-climate feedbacks and the future climate trajectories. Current trends in the inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes (IAV) may contribute to clarify the relative role of physical and biological controls of ecosystem responses to climate change. For this purpose we investigated how recent climate variability has impacted the carbon fluxes at long-term FLUXNET sites. Using a novel method, the IAV has been factored out in climate induced variability (physical control), variability due to changes in ecosystem functioning (biological control) and the interaction of the two terms. The relative control of the main climatic drivers (temperature, water availability) on the physical and biological sources of IAV has been investigated using both site level fluxes and global gridded products generated from the up-scaling of flux data. Results of this analysis highlight the fundamental role of precipitation trends on the pattern of IAV in the last 30 years. Our findings on the spatial/temporal trends of IAV have been finally confirmed using the signal derived from the global network of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measurements.

Assessing Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations of Lake Surface Areas in Mongolia during 2000-2011 Using Minimum Composite MODIS NDVI

PubMed Central

Kang, Sinkyu; Hong, Suk Young

2016-01-01

A minimum composite method was applied to produce a 15-day interval normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily 250 m reflectance in the red and near-infrared bands. This dataset was applied to determine lake surface areas in Mongolia. A total of 73 lakes greater than 6.25 km2in area were selected, and 28 of these lakes were used to evaluate detection errors. The minimum composite NDVI showed a better detection performance on lake water pixels than did the official MODIS 16-day 250 m NDVI based on a maximum composite method. The overall lake area detection performance based on the 15-day minimum composite NDVI showed -2.5% error relative to the Landsat-derived lake area for the 28 evaluated lakes. The errors increased with increases in the perimeter-to-area ratio but decreased with lake size over 10 km2. The lake area decreased by -9.3% at an annual rate of -53.7 km2 yr-1 during 2000 to 2011 for the 73 lakes. However, considerable spatial variations, such as slight-to-moderate lake area reductions in semi-arid regions and rapid lake area reductions in arid regions, were also detected. This study demonstrated applicability of MODIS 250 m reflectance data for biweekly monitoring of lake area change and diagnosed considerable lake area reduction and its spatial variability in arid and semi-arid regions of Mongolia. Future studies are required for explaining reasons of lake area changes and their spatial variability. PMID:27007233

Assessing Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations of Lake Surface Areas in Mongolia during 2000-2011 Using Minimum Composite MODIS NDVI.

PubMed

Kang, Sinkyu; Hong, Suk Young

2016-01-01

A minimum composite method was applied to produce a 15-day interval normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily 250 m reflectance in the red and near-infrared bands. This dataset was applied to determine lake surface areas in Mongolia. A total of 73 lakes greater than 6.25 km2in area were selected, and 28 of these lakes were used to evaluate detection errors. The minimum composite NDVI showed a better detection performance on lake water pixels than did the official MODIS 16-day 250 m NDVI based on a maximum composite method. The overall lake area detection performance based on the 15-day minimum composite NDVI showed -2.5% error relative to the Landsat-derived lake area for the 28 evaluated lakes. The errors increased with increases in the perimeter-to-area ratio but decreased with lake size over 10 km(2). The lake area decreased by -9.3% at an annual rate of -53.7 km(2) yr(-1) during 2000 to 2011 for the 73 lakes. However, considerable spatial variations, such as slight-to-moderate lake area reductions in semi-arid regions and rapid lake area reductions in arid regions, were also detected. This study demonstrated applicability of MODIS 250 m reflectance data for biweekly monitoring of lake area change and diagnosed considerable lake area reduction and its spatial variability in arid and semi-arid regions of Mongolia. Future studies are required for explaining reasons of lake area changes and their spatial variability.

Multi-temporal clustering of continental floods and associated atmospheric circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Yongqiang

2017-12-01

Investigating clustering of floods has important social, economic and ecological implications. This study examines the clustering of Australian floods at different temporal scales and its possible physical mechanisms. Flood series with different severities are obtained by peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling in four flood thresholds. At intra-annual scale, Cox regression and monthly frequency methods are used to examine whether and when the flood clustering exists, respectively. At inter-annual scale, dispersion indices with four-time variation windows are applied to investigate the inter-annual flood clustering and its variation. Furthermore, the Kernel occurrence rate estimate and bootstrap resampling methods are used to identify flood-rich/flood-poor periods. Finally, seasonal variation of horizontal wind at 850 hPa and vertical wind velocity at 500 hPa are used to investigate the possible mechanisms causing the temporal flood clustering. Our results show that: (1) flood occurrences exhibit clustering at intra-annual scale, which are regulated by climate indices representing the impacts of the Pacific and Indian Oceans; (2) the flood-rich months occur from January to March over northern Australia, and from July to September over southwestern and southeastern Australia; (3) stronger inter-annual clustering takes place across southern Australia than northern Australia; and (4) Australian floods are characterised by regional flood-rich and flood-poor periods, with 1987-1992 identified as the flood-rich period across southern Australia, but the flood-poor period across northern Australia, and 2001-2006 being the flood-poor period across most regions of Australia. The intra-annual and inter-annual clustering and temporal variation of flood occurrences are in accordance with the variation of atmospheric circulation. These results provide relevant information for flood management under the influence of climate variability, and, therefore, are helpful for developing flood hazard mitigation schemes.

Influence of seasonal and inter-annual hydro-meteorological variability on surface water fecal coliform concentration under varying land-use composition.

PubMed

St Laurent, Jacques; Mazumder, Asit

2014-01-01

Quantifying the influence of hydro-meteorological variability on surface source water fecal contamination is critical to the maintenance of safe drinking water. Historically, this has not been possible due to the scarcity of data on fecal indicator bacteria (FIB). We examined the relationship between hydro-meteorological variability and the most commonly measured FIB, fecal coliform (FC), concentration for 43 surface water sites within the hydro-climatologically complex region of British Columbia. The strength of relationship was highly variable among sites, but tended to be stronger in catchments with nival (snowmelt-dominated) hydro-meteorological regimes and greater land-use impacts. We observed positive relationships between inter-annual FC concentration and hydro-meteorological variability for around 50% of the 19 sites examined. These sites are likely to experience increased fecal contamination due to the projected intensification of the hydrological cycle. Seasonal FC concentration variability appeared to be driven by snowmelt and rainfall-induced runoff for around 30% of the 43 sites examined. Earlier snowmelt in nival catchments may advance the timing of peak contamination, and the projected decrease in annual snow-to-precipitation ratio is likely to increase fecal contamination levels during summer, fall, and winter among these sites. Safeguarding drinking water quality in the face of such impacts will require increased monitoring of FIB and waterborne pathogens, especially during periods of high hydro-meteorological variability. This data can then be used to develop predictive models, inform source water protection measures, and improve drinking water treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability of spawning time (lunar day) in Acropora versus merulinid corals: a 7-yr record of in situ coral spawning in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Che-Hung; Nozawa, Yoko

2017-12-01

Despite the global accumulation of coral spawning records over the past three decades, information on inter-annual variation in spawning time is still insufficient, resulting in difficulty in predicting coral spawning time. Here, we present new information on in situ spawning times of scleractinian corals at Lyudao, Taiwan, covering their inter-annual variations over a 7-yr period (2010-2016). Spawning of 42 species from 16 genera in eight families was recorded. The majority were hermaphroditic spawners (38 of 42 species), and their spawning occurred 2-4 h after sunset on 1-11 d after the full moon (AFM), mostly in April and May. There were two distinct patterns in the two dominant taxa, the genus Acropora (14 species) and the family Merulinidae (18 species in eight genera). The annual spawning of Acropora corals mostly occurred on a single night in May with high inter-annual variation of spawning (lunar) days between 1 and 11 d AFM. In contrast, the annual spawning of merulinid corals commonly occurred over 2-3 consecutive nights in two consecutive months, April and May, with the specific range of spawning days around the last quarter moon (between 5 and 8 d AFM). The distinct spawning patterns of these taxa were also documented at Okinawa and Kochi, Japan, where similar long-term monitoring of in situ coral spawning has been conducted. This variability in spawning days implies different regulatory mechanisms of synchronous spawning where Acropora corals might be more sensitive to exogenous environmental factors (hourglass mechanism), compared to merulinid corals, which may rely more on endogenous biological rhythms (oscillator mechanism).

Integrating Stomach Content and Stable Isotope Analyses to Quantify the Diets of Pygoscelid Penguins

PubMed Central

Polito, Michael J.; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z.; Karnovsky, Nina J.; Ng, Elizabeth; Patterson, William P.; Emslie, Steven D.

2011-01-01

Stomach content analysis (SCA) and more recently stable isotope analysis (SIA) integrated with isotopic mixing models have become common methods for dietary studies and provide insight into the foraging ecology of seabirds. However, both methods have drawbacks and biases that may result in difficulties in quantifying inter-annual and species-specific differences in diets. We used these two methods to simultaneously quantify the chick-rearing diet of Chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and Gentoo (P. papua) penguins and highlight methods of integrating SCA data to increase accuracy of diet composition estimates using SIA. SCA biomass estimates were highly variable and underestimated the importance of soft-bodied prey such as fish. Two-source, isotopic mixing model predictions were less variable and identified inter-annual and species-specific differences in the relative amounts of fish and krill in penguin diets not readily apparent using SCA. In contrast, multi-source isotopic mixing models had difficulty estimating the dietary contribution of fish species occupying similar trophic levels without refinement using SCA-derived otolith data. Overall, our ability to track inter-annual and species-specific differences in penguin diets using SIA was enhanced by integrating SCA data to isotopic mixing modes in three ways: 1) selecting appropriate prey sources, 2) weighting combinations of isotopically similar prey in two-source mixing models and 3) refining predicted contributions of isotopically similar prey in multi-source models. PMID:22053199

Root-associated fungi of Vaccinium carlesii in subtropical forests of China: intra- and inter-annual variability and impacts of human disturbances

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yanhua; Ni, Jian; Tang, Fangping; Pei, Kequan; Luo, Yiqi; Jiang, Lifen; Sun, Lifu; Liang, Yu

2016-01-01

Ericoid mycorrhiza (ERM) are expected to facilitate establishment of ericaceous plants in harsh habitats. However, diversity and driving factors of the root-associated fungi of ericaceous plants are poorly understood. In this study, hair-root samples of Vaccinium carlesii were taken from four forest types: old growth forests (OGF), secondary forests with once or twice cutting (SEC I and SEC II), and Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation (PLF). Fungal communities were determined using high-throughput sequencing, and impacts of human disturbances and the intra- and inter-annual variability of root-associated fungal community were evaluated. Diverse fungal taxa were observed and our results showed that (1) Intra- and inter-annual changes in root-associated fungal community were found, and the Basidiomycota to Ascomycota ratio was related to mean temperature of the sampling month; (2) Human disturbances significantly affected structure of root-associated fungal community of V. carlesii, and two secondary forest types were similar in root-associated fungal community and were closer to that of the old growth forest; (3) Plant community composition, edaphic parameters, and geographic factors significantly affected root-associated fungal communities of V. carlesii. These results may be helpful in better understanding the maintenance mechanisms of fungal diversity associated with hair roots of ERM plants under human disturbances. PMID:26928608

Stationarity and Inequality from the Mississippi to the Kissimmee: Climatic Control of Temporal Patterns in Catchment Discharge and Solute Export

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jawitz, J. W.

2011-12-01

What are the relative contributions of climatic variability, land management, and local geomorphology in determining the temporal dynamics of streamflow and the export of solutes from watersheds to receiving water bodies? A simple analytical framework is introduced for characterizing the temporal inequality of stream discharge and solute export from catchments using Lorenz diagrams and the associated Gini coefficient. These descriptors are used to illustrate a broad range of observed flow variability with a synthesis of multi-decadal flow data from 22 rivers in Florida. The analytical framework is extended to comprehensively link variability in flows and loads to climatically-driven inputs in terms of these inequality-based metrics. Further, based on a synthesis of data from the basins of the Baltic Sea, the Mississippi River, the Kissimmee River and other tributaries to Lake Okeechobee, FL, it is shown that inter-annual variations in exported loads for geogenic constituents, and for total N and total P, are dominantly controlled by discharge. Emergence of this consistent pattern across diverse managed catchments is attributed to the anthropogenic legacy of accumulated nutrient sources generating memory, similar to ubiquitously present sources for geogenic constituents. Multi-decadal phosphorus load data from 4 of the primary tributaries to Lake Okeechobee and sodium and nitrate load data from 9 of the Hubbard Brook, NH long-term study site catchments are used to examine the relation between inequality of climatic inputs, river flows and catchment loads. The intra-annual loads to Lake Okeechobee are shown to be highly unequal, such that 90% of annual load is delivered in as little as 15% of the time. Analytic expressions are developed for measures of inequality in terms of parameters of the lognormal distribution under general conditions that include intermittency. In cases where climatic variability is high compared to that of concentrations (chemostatic conditions), such as for P in the Lake Okeechobee basin and Na in Hubbard Brook, the temporal inequality of rainfall and flow are strong surrogates for load inequality. However, in cases where variability of concentrations is high compared to that of flows (chemodynamic conditions), such as for nitrate in the Hubbard Brook catchments, load inequality is greater than rainfall or flow inequality. The measured degree of correspondence between climatic, flow, and load inequality for these data sets are shown to be well described using the general inequality framework introduced here. Important implications are that (1) variations in hydro-climatic or anthropogenic forcing can be used to robustly predict inter-annual variations in flows and loads, (2) water quality problems in receiving inland and coastal waters may persist until the accumulated storages of nutrients have been substantially depleted, and (3) remedial measures designed to intercept or capture exported flows and loads must be designed with consideration of the intra-annual inequality.

[Effect of climate change on the fisheries conununity pattern in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea].

PubMed

Liu, Zun-lei; Yuan, Xing-wei; Yang, Lin-lin; Yan, Li-ping; Tian, Yong-jun; Chen, Jia-hua

2015-03-01

Data sets of 26 fisheries target species from the fishery-depen-dent and fishery-independent surveys in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea (OW-NECS), combined sea surface temperature (SST), were used to examine the links between diversity index, pattern of common variability and climate changes based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized additive model (GAM). The results showed that the shift from a cold regime to a warm regime was detected in SST during the 1970s-2011 with step changes around 1982/ 1983. SST increased during the cold regime and the warm regime before 1998 (warming trend period, 1972-1998), and decreased during the warm regime after 1998 (cooling trend period, 1999-2011). Shannon diversity index was largely dependent on the filefish, which contributed up to 50% of the total production as a single species, with low diversity in the waters of the OW-NECS, during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Excluding the filefish, the diversity index linearly increased and decreased during 1972-1998 and 1999-2011, respectively. The variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, strongly suggesting the effect of the SST on the diversity. The first two components (PC1 and PC2) of PCA for target species, which accounted for 32.43% of the total variance, showed evident decadal variation patterns with a step change during 1992-1999 and inter-annual variability with short-period fluctuation, respectively. It seems that PC1 was associated with large scale climatic change, while PC2 was related to inter-annual oceanographic variability such as ENSO events. Linear fitting results showed winEOF1 had significant effect on PC1, and GAM analysis for PC1 showed that winter EOF1 (winEOF1) and summer EOF2 (sumEOF2) can explain 88.9% of the total variance. Nonlinear effect was also found between PC2 and win EOF1, indicating that the fish community structure, which had predominantly decadal/inter-annual variation patterns, was influenced by inter-annual variations in oceanographic conditions.

Quantifying the impact of the major driving mechanisms of inter-annual variability of salinity in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Núñez-Riboni, Ismael; Akimova, Anna

2017-05-01

New 67-year long (1948-2014) gridded time series of salinity in the North Sea at all depths allowed to quantify, spatially resolved, the amount of inter-annual salinity variability explained by each of its driving mechanisms: sea level pressure (SLP), precipitation, river run-off, zonal and meridional winds and currents over the eastern North Atlantic. For the current data, not only annual averages but also their deviations, as measure of turbulence, were considered. Our results summarize and expand the knowledge gathered in the last 50 years about the mechanisms driving inter-annual variability of salinity in the North Sea. Three mechanisms, uncorrelated with each other and acting over separate regions of the North Sea, arise as most important: (1) River run-off from continental Europe explains 50-80% of inter-annual salinity variations at lag 0 in the Southern and German Bights and the Norwegian Trench up to the connection with the North Atlantic, down to the seabed near the coasts and to the deep Norwegian Trench (100 m); (2) Remote variations of salinity in the Rockall Trough explain 70% of salinity variations of the tongue of high salinity in the northwestern North Sea with a lag of one year and down the water column; (3) The Neva discharge explains 60% of salinity changes in Skagerrak and southern Norwegian trench at lag 0. An explanation for this correlation might be the Baltic freshwater outflow being modulated by the Neva discharge through intensification of the estuarine gravitational circulation. We confirmed known relations between river run-off, precipitation over continental Europe, SLP over northern Europe and zonal wind over western Europe. Linked to these changes, we found also changes of meridional wind north of Scotland favoring eastward Ekman transport of salty North Atlantic waters into the North Sea off the Norwegian coast. Excluding this only case, we found no significant correlation between wind-driven currents and North Sea salinity changes. This result supports the notion that the Atlantic inflow into the North Sea is mainly density-driven. Salinity in the region east of Scotland and northern England was alienated from all driving mechanisms tested. An explanation was found in concomitant canceling changes of the intensity of the North Sea circulation and the discharge of the river Tay.

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

Exploring the impact of climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum on the pattern of human occupation of Iberia.

PubMed

Burke, Ariane; Levavasseur, Guillaume; James, Patrick M A; Guiducci, Dario; Izquierdo, Manuel Arturo; Bourgeon, Lauriane; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles; Vrac, Mathieu

2014-08-01

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was a global climate event, which had significant repercussions for the spatial distribution and demographic history of prehistoric populations. In Eurasia, the LGM coincides with a potential bottleneck for modern humans and may mark the divergence date for Asian and European populations (Keinan et al., 2007). In this research, the impact of climate variability on human populations in the Iberian Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is examined with the aid of downscaled high-resolution (16 × 16 km) numerical climate experiments. Human sensitivity to short time-scale (inter-annual) climate variability during this key time period, which follows the initial modern human colonisation of Eurasia and the extinction of the Neanderthals, is tested using the spatial distribution of archaeological sites. Results indicate that anatomically modern human populations responded to small-scale spatial patterning in climate variability, specifically inter-annual variability in precipitation levels as measured by the standard precipitation index. Climate variability at less than millennial scale, therefore, is shown to be an important component of ecological risk, one that played a role in regulating the spatial behaviour of prehistoric human populations and consequently affected their social networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in Venezuela.

PubMed

Grillet, María-Eugenia; El Souki, Mayida; Laguna, Francisco; León, José Rafael

2014-01-01

We investigated the periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum incidence in time-series of malaria data (1990-2010) from three endemic regions in Venezuela. In particular, we determined whether disease epidemics were related to local climate variability and regional climate anomalies such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Malaria periodicity was found to exhibit unique features in each studied region. Significant multi-annual cycles of 2- to about 6-year periods were identified. The inter-annual variability of malaria cases was coherent with that of SSTs (ENSO), mainly at temporal scales within the 3-6 year periods. Additionally, malaria cases were intensified approximately 1 year after an El Niño event, a pattern that highlights the role of climate inter-annual variability in the epidemic patterns. Rainfall mediated the effect of ENSO on malaria locally. Particularly, rains from the last phase of the season had a critical role in the temporal dynamics of Plasmodium. The malaria-climate relationship was complex and transient, varying in strength with the region and species. By identifying temporal cycles of malaria we have made a first step in predicting high-risk years in Venezuela. Our findings emphasize the importance of analyzing high-resolution spatial-temporal data to better understand malaria transmission dynamics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Faithful or not: direct and indirect effects of climate on extra-pair paternities in a population of Alpine marmots

PubMed Central

Allainé, Dominique; Sauzet, Sandrine; Cohas, Aurélie

2016-01-01

Despite being identified an area that is poorly understood regarding the effects of climate change, behavioural responses to climatic variability are seldom explored. Climatic variability is likely to cause large inter-annual variation in the frequency of extra-pair litters produced, a widespread alternative mating tactic to help prevent, correct or minimize the negative consequences of sub-optimal mate choice. In this study, we investigated how climatic variability affects the inter-annual variation in the proportion of extra-pair litters in a wild population of Alpine marmots. During 22 years of monitoring, the annual proportion of extra-pair litters directly increased with the onset of earlier springs and indirectly with increased snow in winters. Snowier winters resulted in a higher proportion of families with sexually mature male subordinates and thus, created a social context within which extra-pair paternity was favoured. Earlier spring snowmelt could create this pattern by relaxing energetic, movement and time constraints. Further, deeper snow in winter could also contribute by increasing litter size and juvenile survival. Optimal mate choice is particularly relevant to generate adaptive genetic diversity. Understanding the influence of environmental conditions and the capacity of the individuals to cope with them is crucial within the context of rapid climate change. PMID:28003452

Faithful or not: direct and indirect effects of climate on extra-pair paternities in a population of Alpine marmots.

PubMed

Bichet, Coraline; Allainé, Dominique; Sauzet, Sandrine; Cohas, Aurélie

2016-12-28

Despite being identified an area that is poorly understood regarding the effects of climate change, behavioural responses to climatic variability are seldom explored. Climatic variability is likely to cause large inter-annual variation in the frequency of extra-pair litters produced, a widespread alternative mating tactic to help prevent, correct or minimize the negative consequences of sub-optimal mate choice. In this study, we investigated how climatic variability affects the inter-annual variation in the proportion of extra-pair litters in a wild population of Alpine marmots. During 22 years of monitoring, the annual proportion of extra-pair litters directly increased with the onset of earlier springs and indirectly with increased snow in winters. Snowier winters resulted in a higher proportion of families with sexually mature male subordinates and thus, created a social context within which extra-pair paternity was favoured. Earlier spring snowmelt could create this pattern by relaxing energetic, movement and time constraints. Further, deeper snow in winter could also contribute by increasing litter size and juvenile survival. Optimal mate choice is particularly relevant to generate adaptive genetic diversity. Understanding the influence of environmental conditions and the capacity of the individuals to cope with them is crucial within the context of rapid climate change. © 2016 The Author(s).

Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

2017-12-01

Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

The Effect of Vaccination Coverage and Climate on Japanese Encephalitis in Sarawak, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Impoinvil, Daniel E.; Ooi, Mong How; Diggle, Peter J.; Caminade, Cyril; Cardosa, Mary Jane; Morse, Andrew P.

2013-01-01

Background Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis across Asia with approximately 70,000 cases a year and 10,000 to 15,000 deaths. Because JE incidence varies widely over time, partly due to inter-annual climate variability effects on mosquito vector abundance, it becomes more complex to assess the effects of a vaccination programme since more or less climatically favourable years could also contribute to a change in incidence post-vaccination. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify vaccination effect on confirmed Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in Sarawak, Malaysia after controlling for climate variability to better understand temporal dynamics of JE virus transmission and control. Methodology/principal findings Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases. Conclusions/significance This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored. PMID:23951373

Large-scale climatic phenomena drive fluctuations in macroinvertebrate assemblages in lowland tropical streams, Costa Rica: The importance of ENSO events in determining long-term (15y) patterns

PubMed Central

Ramírez, Alonso; Pringle, Catherine M.

2018-01-01

Understanding how environmental variables influence the distribution and density of organisms over relatively long temporal scales is a central question in ecology given increased climatic variability (e.g., precipitation, ENSO events). The primary goal of our study was to evaluate long-term (15y time span) patterns of climate, as well as environmental parameters in two Neotropical streams in lowland Costa Rica, to assess potential effects on aquatic macroinvertebrates. We also examined the relative effects of an 8y whole-stream P-enrichment experiment on macroinvertebrate assemblages against the backdrop of this long-term study. Climate, environmental variables and macroinvertebrate samples were measured monthly for 7y and then quarterly for an additional 8y in each stream. Temporal patterns in climatic and environmental variables showed high variability over time, without clear inter-annual or intra-annual patterns. Macroinvertebrate richness and abundance decreased with increasing discharge and was positively related to the number of days since the last high discharge event. Findings show that fluctuations in stream physicochemistry and macroinvertebrate assemblage structure are ultimately the result of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as ENSO events, while the 8y P-enrichment did not appear to affect macroinvertebrates. Our study demonstrates that Neotropical lowland streams are highly dynamic and not as stable as is commonly presumed, with high intra- and inter-annual variability in environmental parameters that change the structure and composition of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages. PMID:29420548

A method to assess the inter-annual weather-dependent variability in air pollution concentration and deposition based on weather typing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, Håkan; Grundström, Maria; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Karlsson, Per Erik; Chen, Deliang

2016-02-01

Annual anomalies in air pollutant concentrations, and deposition (bulk and throughfall) of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium, in the Gothenburg region, south-west Sweden, were correlated with optimized linear combinations of the yearly frequency of Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) to determine the extent to which the year-to-year variation in pollution exposure can be partly explained by weather related variability. Air concentrations of urban NO2, CO, PM10, as well as O3 at both an urban and a rural monitoring site, and the deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium for the period 1997-2010 were included in the analysis. Linear detrending of the time series was performed to estimate trend-independent anomalies. These estimated anomalies were subtracted from observed annual values. Then the statistical significance of temporal trends with and without LWT adjustment was tested. For the pollutants studied, the annual anomaly was well correlated with the annual LWT combination (R2 in the range 0.52-0.90). Some negative (annual average [NO2], ammonia bulk deposition) or positive (average urban [O3]) temporal trends became statistically significant (p < 0.05) when the LWT adjustment was applied. In all the cases but one (NH4 throughfall, for which no temporal trend existed) the significance of temporal trends became stronger with LWT adjustment. For nitrate and ammonium, the LWT based adjustment explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variation for bulk deposition than for throughfall. This is probably linked to the longer time scale of canopy related dry deposition processes influencing throughfall being explained to a lesser extent by LWTs than the meteorological factors controlling bulk deposition. The proposed novel methodology can be used by authorities responsible for air pollution management, and by researchers studying temporal trends in pollution, to evaluate e.g. the relative importance of changes in emissions and weather variability in annual air pollution exposure.

North Sea Scyphomedusae; summer distribution, estimated biomass and significance particularly for 0-group Gadoid fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, S. J.; Hislop, J. R. G.; Shanks, A. M.

Data on the by-catch of Scyphomedusae from pelagic trawls was collected during the routine ICES International 0-group Gadoid Surveys of the North Sea, in June and July of the years 1971-1986 (except 1984). These data are used to describe the distributions, abundances and biomasses of three common North Sea Scyphomedusae: Aurelia aurita (L.), Cyanea capillata (L.) and C. lamarckii (Péron & Lesuer). Information is also presented on inter-annual variability, size (umbrella diameter) frequencies and, for the Cyanea species, umbrella diameter: wet weight relationships. The general role and ecological significance of Scyphomedusae is discussed and, given the well known 'shelter' relationships between Scyphomedusae and certain 0-group fish, whiting ( Merlangius merlangus) and haddock ( Melanogrammus aeglefinus), in particular. The data were examined for evidence of such relationships. Aurelia aurita, although fairly widespread in the northern North Sea was virtually absent from the central North Sea but very abundant in coastal waters. This species was particularly abundant off the Scottish east coast and especially in the Moray Firth. Cyanea lamerckii was most abundant in the southern and eastern North Sea. More widespread than Aurelia, this species was also most abundant in coastal regions, particularly off the Danish west coast. Cyanea capillata, with a more northern distribution was also more widely distributed and abundant offshore. This species was most abundant in the area between the Orkney/Shetland Isles and the Norwegian Deep and in shelf waters of the north west approaches to the North Sea. As with C. lamarckii it was also, in some years, abundant off the Scottish east coast and west of Denmark. The abundance and the size frequency of the jellyfish show considerable inter-annual variability, and variability between regions of the North Sea. It is considered that hydrographic variability and differences in food supply to both medusae and to their sessile benthic polyps, are the major causes of the observed differences between years and areas. The impact of Scyphomedusae on fishing and recreational activities is discussed.

Sensitivity of soil respiration to variability in soil moisture and temperature in a humid tropical forest

Treesearch

Tana Wood; M. Detto; W.L. Silver

2013-01-01

Precipitation and temperature are important drivers of soil respiration. The role of moisture and temperature are generally explored at seasonal or inter-annual timescales; however, significant variability also occurs on hourly to daily time-scales. We used small (1.54 m2), throughfall exclusion shelters to evaluate the role soil moisture and temperature as temporal...

Modeling the influence of precipitation and nitrogen deposition on forest understory fuel connectivity in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

Treesearch

M. Hurteau; M. North; T. Foines

2009-01-01

Climate change models for California’s Sierra Nevada predict greater inter-annual variability in precipitation over the next 50 years. These increases in precipitation variability coupled with increases in nitrogen deposition fromfossil fuel consumption are likely to result in increased productivity levels and significant increases in...

A Moored System for Understanding the Temporal Variability of Prey Fields of Deep Diving Predators off Cape Hatteras and Response to Gulf Stream Fronts

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Number: N000141310686 http://superpod.ml.duke.edu/ LONG-TERM GOALS Fisheries acoustics are routinely used for biomass and abundance surveys and...will be required every 10-12 months), allowing us to address the seasonality and the inter-annual variability in prey biomass and density in

Climate Control on Tree Growth at the Upper and Lower Treelines: A Case Study in the Qilian Mountains, Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Yang, Bao; He, Minhui; Melvin, Thomas M.; Zhao, Yan; Briffa, Keith R.

2013-01-01

It is generally hypothesized that tree growth at the upper treeline is normally controlled by temperature while that at the lower treeline is precipitation limited. However, uniform patterns of inter-annual ring-width variations along altitudinal gradients are also observed in some situations. How changing elevation influences tree growth in the cold and arid Qilian Mountains, on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, is of considerable interest because of the sensitivity of the region’s local climate to different atmospheric circulation patterns. Here, a network of four Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) ring-width chronologies was developed from trees distributed on a typical mountain slope at elevations ranging from 3000 to 3520 m above sea level (a.s.l.). The statistical characteristics of the four tree-ring chronologies show no significant correlation with increasing elevation. All the sampled tree growth was controlled by a common climatic signal (local precipitation) across the investigated altitudinal gradient (520 m). During the common reliable period, covering the past 450 years, the four chronologies have exhibited coherent growth patterns in both the high- and low-frequency domains. These results contradict the notion of contrasting climate growth controls at higher and lower elevations, and specifically the assumption that inter-annual tree-growth variability is controlled by temperature at the upper treeline. It should be stressed that these results relate to the relatively arid conditions at the sampling sites in the Qilian Mountains. PMID:23874871

Temporal variability of foliar nutrients: responses to nitrogen deposition and prescribed fire in a temperate steppe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lü, Xiao-Tao; Reed, Sasha C.; Hou, Shuang-Li; Hu, Yan-Yu; Wei, Hai-Wei; Lü, Fu-Mei; Cui, Qiang; Han, Xing Guo

2017-01-01

Plant nutrient concentrations and stoichiometry drive fundamental ecosystem processes, with important implications for primary production, diversity, and ecosystem sustainability. While a range of evidence exists regarding how plant nutrients vary across spatial scales, our understanding of their temporal variation remains less well understood. Nevertheless, we know nutrients regulate plant function across time, and that important temporal controls could strongly interact with environmental change. Here, we report results from a 3-year assessment of inter-annual changes of foliar nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and stoichiometry in three dominant grasses in response to N deposition and prescribed fire in a temperate steppe of northern China. Foliar N and P concentrations and their ratios varied greatly among years, with this temporal variation strongly related to inter-annual variation in precipitation. Nitrogen deposition significantly increased foliar N concentrations and N:P ratios in all species, while fire significantly altered foliar N and P concentrations but had no significant impacts on N:P ratios. Generally, N addition enhanced the temporal stability of foliar N and decreased that of foliar P and of N:P ratios. Our results indicate that plant nutrient status and response to environmental change are temporally dynamic and that there are differential effects on the interactions between environmental change drivers and timing for different nutrients. These responses have important implications for consideration of global change effects on plant community structure and function, management strategies, and the modeling of biogeochemical cycles under global change scenarios.

On the linkage between Arctic sea ice and Mid-latitude weather pattern: the situation in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, S.; Zhang, Y.; Wu, Q.

2017-12-01

The influence of Arctic changes on the weather patterns in the highly populated mid-latitude is a complex and controversial topic with considerable uncertainties such as the low signal-to-noise, ill-suited metrics of circulation changes and the missing of dynamical understanding. In this study, the possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the wintertime weather patterns in East Asia is investigated by comparing groups of statistical and diagnostic analyses. Our study shows a robust relationship between the early autumn SIC in Barents, Kara, Laptev and East Siberia Sea and the energies of wintertime transient activities corresponding to the weather patterns over East Asia on inter-annual time scales. With the reduction of SIC in autumn, the wintertime synoptic (2-10 day) kinetic energy in the north of Eurasia decreases while the low-frequency (10-30 days) kinetic energy, which corresponds to persistent weather patterns, exhibits an evident and dominant increase over the north of Caspian Sea, Lake Baikal and the Ural Mountain. With the reduction of SIC, the intra-seasonal temperature fluctuations present coherent changes over a broader region as well, with significant increase of the low-frequency variability in the vast north of Tibet Plateau and East Asia. The changes of the low-frequency transient activities may be attributed to the slowly southward propagating wave energies from polar regions. However, no consistent stratosphere signals are found associated with such linkage on inter-annual time scales.

Time variable eddy mixing in the global Sea Surface Salinity maxima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busecke, J. J. M.; Abernathey, R.; Gordon, A. L.

2016-12-01

Lateral mixing by mesoscale eddies is widely recognized as a crucial mechanism for the global ocean circulation and the associated heat/salt/tracer transports. The Salinity in the Upper Ocean Processes Study (SPURS) confirmed the importance of eddy mixing for the surface salinity fields even in the center of the subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic. We focus on the global salinity maxima due to their role as indicators for global changes in the hydrological cycle as well as providing the source water masses for the shallow overturning circulation. We introduce a novel approach to estimate the contribution of eddy mixing to the global sea surface salinity maxima. Using a global 2D tracer experiments in a 1/10 degree MITgcm setup driven by observed surface velocities, we analyze the effect of eddy mixing using a water mass framework, thus focussing on the diffusive flux across surface isohalines. This enables us to diagnose temporal variability on seasonal to inter annual time scales, revealing regional differences in the mechanism causing temporal variability.Sensitivity experiments with various salinity backgrounds reveal robust inter annual variability caused by changes in the surface velocity fields potentially forced by large scale climate.

Inter-annual variability of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation in Med-CORDEX simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vittoria Struglia, Maria; Adani, Mario; Carillo, Adriana; Pisacane, Giovanna; Sannino, Gianmaria; Beuvier, Jonathan; Lovato, Tomas; Sevault, Florence; Vervatis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

Recent atmospheric reanalysis products, such as ERA40 and ERA-interim, and their regional dynamical downscaling prompted the HyMeX/Med-CORDEX community to perform hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea, giving the opportunity to evaluate the response of different ocean models to a realistic inter-annual atmospheric forcing. Ocean numerical modeling studies have been steadily improving over the last decade through hind-cast processing, and are complementary to observations in studying the relative importance of the mechanisms playing a role in ocean variability, either external forcing or internal ocean variability. This work presents a review and an inter-comparison of the most recent hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea Circulation, produced in the framework of the Med-CORDEX initiative, at resolutions spanning from 1/8° to 1/16°. The richness of the simulations available for this study is exploited to address the effects of increasing resolution, both of models and forcing, the initialization procedure, and the prescription of the atmospheric boundary conditions, which are particularly relevant in order to model a realistic THC, in the perspective of fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere models. The mean circulation is well reproduced by all the simulations. However, it can be observed that the horizontal resolution of both atmospheric forcing and ocean model plays a fundamental role in the reproduction of some specific features of both sub-basins and important differences can be observed among low and high resolution atmosphere forcing. We analyze the mean circulation on both the long-term and decadal time scale, and the represented inter-annual variability of intermediate and deep water mass formation processes in both the Eastern and Western sub-basins, finding that models agree with observations in correspondence of specific events, such as the 1992-1993 Eastern Mediterranean Transient, and the 2005-2006 event in the Gulf of Lion. Long-term trends of the hydrological properties have been investigated at sub-basin scale and have been interpreted in terms of response to forcing and boundary conditions, detectable differences resulting mainly due either to the different initialization and spin up procedure or to the different prescription of Atlantic boundary conditions.

Micro-phytoplankton community structure in the coastal upwelling zone off Concepción (central Chile): Annual and inter-annual fluctuations in a highly dynamic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anabalón, V.; Morales, C. E.; González, H. E.; Menschel, E.; Schneider, W.; Hormazabal, S.; Valencia, L.; Escribano, R.

2016-12-01

An intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in recent decades has been detected in some of the main eastern boundary current systems, especially at higher latitudes, but the response of coastal phytoplankton communities in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) remains unknown. At higher latitudes in the HCS (35-40°S), strong seasonality in wind-driven upwelling during spring-summer coincides with an annual increase in coastal chlorophyll-a and primary production, and a dominance of micro-phytoplankton. In order to understand the effects of potential upwelling intensification on the micro-phytoplankton community in this region, annual and inter-annual variability in its structure (total and taxa-specific abundance and biomass) and its association with oceanographic fluctuations were analyzed using in situ time series data (2002-2009) from a shelf station off Concepcion (36.5°S). At the annual scale, total mean abundance and biomass, attributed to a few dominant diatom taxa, were at least one order of magnitude greater during spring-summer than autumn-winter, in association with changes in upwelling and surface salinity and temperature, whereas macro-nutrient concentrations remained relatively high all the year. At the inter-annual scale, total abundance and biomass decreased during the upwelling season of the 2006-2009 period compared with the 2002-2006 period, notably due to lower abundances of Skeletonema and Leptocylindrus, but the relative dominance of a few taxa was maintained. The 2006-2009 period was characterized by higher upwelling intensity, colder and higher salinity waters, and changes in nutrient concentrations and ratios compared with the first period. The inter-annual changes in the micro-phytoplankton community were mostly associated with changes in surface salinity and temperature (changes in upwelling intensity) but also with changes in Si/N and N/P, which relate to other land-derived processes.

How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo

2013-02-01

SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

In the hot seat : Insolation and ENSO controls on vegetation productivity in tropical Africa inferred from NDVI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivory, S.; Russell, J. L.; Cohen, A. S.

2010-12-01

Threats to tropical biodiversity with serious and costly implications for both ecosystems and human well-being in Africa have led the IPCC to classify this region as vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change. Yet little is known about how vegetation communities respond to altered patterns of rainfall and evaporation. Paleoclimate records within the tropics can help answer questions about how vegetation response to climate forcing changes over time. However, sparse spatial extent of records and uncertainty surrounding the climate-vegetation relationship complicate these insights. Understanding the climatic mechanisms involved in landscape change at all temporal scales creates the need for quantitative constraints of the modern relationship between climatic controls, hydrology, and vegetation. Though modern observational data can help elucidate this relationship, low resolution and complicated rainfall/vegetation associations make them less than ideal. Satellite data of vegetation productivity (NDVI) with continuous high-resolution spatial coverage provides a robust and elegant tool for identifying the link between global and regional controls and vegetation. We use regression analyses of variables either previously proposed or potentially important in regulating Afro-tropical vegetation (insolation, out-going long-wave radiation, geopotential height, Southern Oscillation Index, Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian Monsoon precipitation, sea-level pressure, surface wind, sea-surface temperature) on continuous, time-varying spatial fields of 8km NDVI for sub-Saharan Africa. These analyses show the importance of global atmospheric controls in producing regional intra-annual and inter-annual vegetation variability. Dipole patterns emerge primarily correlated with both the seasonal and inter-annual extent of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Inter-annual ITCZ variability drives patterns in African vegetation resulting from the effect of insolation anomalies and ENSO events on atmospheric circulation rather than sea surface temperatures or teleconnections to mid/high latitudes. Global controls on tropical atmospheric circulation regulate vegetation throughout sub-Saharan Africa on many time scales through alteration of dry season length and moisture convergence, rather than precipitation amount.

Tropical rainforests dominate multi-decadal variability of the global carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Wang, Y. P.; Peng, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Silver, J.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Zhu, Z.; Lu, X.; Zheng, X.

2017-12-01

Recent studies find that inter-annual variability of global atmosphere-to-land CO2 uptake (NBP) is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems. However, the NBP variations at decadal to multi-decadal timescales are still not known. By developing a basic theory for the role of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) on NBP and applying it to 100-year simulations of terrestrial ecosystem models forced by observational climate, we find that tropical rainforests dominate the multi-decadal variability of global NBP (48%) rather than the semi-arid lands (35%). The NBP variation at inter-annual timescales is almost 90% contributed by NPP, but across longer timescales is progressively controlled by Rh that constitutes the response from the NPP-derived soil carbon input (40%) and the response of soil carbon turnover rates to climate variability (60%). The NBP variations of tropical rainforests is modulated by the ENSO and the PDO through their significant influences on temperature and precipitation at timescales of 2.5-7 and 25-50 years, respectively. This study highlights the importance of tropical rainforests on the multi-decadal variability of global carbon cycle, suggesting that we need to carefully differentiate the effect of NBP long-term fluctuations associated with ocean-related climate modes on the long-term trend in land sink.

The Inter-Annual Variability Analysis of Carbon Exchange in Low Artic Fen Uncovers The Climate Sensitivity And The Uncertainties Around Net Ecosystem Exchange Partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanco, E. L.; Lund, M.; Williams, M. D.; Christensen, T. R.; Tamstorf, M. P.

2015-12-01

An improvement in our process-based understanding of CO2 exchanges in the Arctic, and their climate sensitivity, is critical for examining the role of tundra ecosystems in changing climates. Arctic organic carbon storage has seen increased attention in recent years due to large potential for carbon releases following thaw. Our knowledge about the exact scale and sensitivity for a phase-change of these C stocks are, however, limited. Minor variations in Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) driven by changes in the climate can lead to either C sink or C source states, which likely will impact the overall C cycle of the ecosystem. Eddy covariance data is usually used to partition Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) into GPP and Reco achieved by flux separation algorithms. However, different partitioning approaches lead to different estimates. as well as undefined uncertainties. The main objectives of this study are to use model-data fusion approaches to (1) determine the inter-annual variability in C source/sink strength for an Arctic fen, and attribute such variations to GPP vs Reco, (2) investigate the climate sensitivity of these processes and (3) explore the uncertainties in NEE partitioning. The intention is to elaborate on the information gathered in an existing catchment area under an extensive cross-disciplinary ecological monitoring program in low Arctic West Greenland, established under the auspices of the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program. The use of such a thorough long-term (7 years) dataset applied to the exploration in inter-annual variability of carbon exchange, related driving factors and NEE partition uncertainties provides a novel input into our understanding about land-atmosphere CO2 exchange.

Intra-seasonal and Inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio over rain-shadow region of North peninsular India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morwal, S. B.; Narkhedkar, S. G.; Padmakumari, B.; Maheskumar, R. S.; Deshpande, C. G.; Kulkarni, J. R.

2017-05-01

Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio (BR) have been studied over the rain-shadow region of north peninsular India during summer monsoon season. Daily grid point data of latent heat flux (LHF), sensible heat flux (SHF) from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period 1970-2014 have been used to compute daily area-mean BR. Daily grid point rainfall data at a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° from APHRODITE's Water Resources for the available period 1970-2007 have been used to study the association between rainfall and BR. The study revealed that BR rapidly decreases from 4.1 to 0.29 in the month of June and then remains nearly constant at the same value (≤0.1) in the rest of the season. High values of BR in the first half of June are indicative of intense thermals and convective clouds with higher bases. Low values of BR from July to September period are indicative of weak thermals and convective clouds with lower bases. Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of BR is found to be inversely related to precipitation over the region. BR analysis indicates that the land surface characteristics of the study region during July-September are similar to that over oceanic regions as far as intensity of thermals and associated cloud microphysical properties are concerned. Similar variation of BR is found in El Nino and La Nina years. During June, an increasing trend is observed in SHF and BR and decreasing trend in LHF from 1976 to 2014. Increasing trend in the SHF is statistically significant.

Recent vegetation phenology variability and wild reindeer migration in Hardangervidda plateau (Norway)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courault, Romain; Franclet, Alexiane; Bourrand, Kévin; Bilodeau, Clélia; Saïd, Sonia; Cohen, Marianne

2018-05-01

More than others, arctic ecosystems are affected by consequences of global climate changes. The herbivorous plays numerous roles both in Scandinavian natural and cultural landscapes (Forbes et al., 2007). Wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus L.) herds in Hardangervidda plateau (Norway) constitute one of the isolated populations along Fennoscandia mountain range. The study aims to understand temporal and spatial variability of intra- and inter-annual home ranges extent and geophysical properties. We then characterize phenological variability with Corine Land Cover ecological habitat assessment and bi-monthly NDVI index (MODIS 13Q1, 250 m). Thirdly, we test relationships between reindeer's estimated densities and geophysical factors. All along the study, a Python toolbox ("GRiD") has been mounted and refined to fit with biogeographical expectancies. The toolbox let user's choice of inputs and facilitate then the gathering of raster datasets with given spatial extent of clipping and resolution. The grid generation and cells extraction gives one tabular output, allowing then to easily compute complex geostatistical analysis with regular spreadsheets. Results are based on reindeer's home ranges, associated extent (MODIS tile) and spatial resolution (250 m). Spatial mismatch of 0.6 % has been found between ecological habitat when comparing raw (100 m2) and new dataset (250 m2). Inter-annual home ranges analysis describes differences between inter-seasonal migrations (early spring, end of the summer) and calving or capitalizing times. For intra-annual home ranges, significant correlations have been found between reindeer's estimated densities and both altitudes and phenology. GRiD performance and biogeographical results suggests 1) to enhance geometric accuracy 2) better examine links between estimated densities and NDVI.

Influence of Leaf Area Index Prescriptions on Simulations of Heat, Moisture, and Carbon Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kala, Jatin; Decker, Mark; Exbrayat, Jean-Francois; Pitman, Andy J.; Carouge, Claire; Evans, Jason P.; Abramowitz, Gab; Mocko, David

2013-01-01

Leaf-area index (LAI), the total one-sided surface area of leaf per ground surface area, is a key component of land surface models. We investigate the influence of differing, plausible LAI prescriptions on heat, moisture, and carbon fluxes simulated by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLEv1.4b) model over the Australian continent. A 15-member ensemble monthly LAI data-set is generated using the MODIS LAI product and gridded observations of temperature and precipitation. Offline simulations lasting 29 years (1980-2008) are carried out at 25 km resolution with the composite monthly means from the MODIS LAI product (control simulation) and compared with simulations using each of the 15-member ensemble monthly-varying LAI data-sets generated. The imposed changes in LAI did not strongly influence the sensible and latent fluxes but the carbon fluxes were more strongly affected. Croplands showed the largest sensitivity in gross primary production with differences ranging from -90 to 60 %. PFTs with high absolute LAI and low inter-annual variability, such as evergreen broadleaf trees, showed the least response to the different LAI prescriptions, whilst those with lower absolute LAI and higher inter-annual variability, such as croplands, were more sensitive. We show that reliance on a single LAI prescription may not accurately reflect the uncertainty in the simulation of the terrestrial carbon fluxes, especially for PFTs with high inter-annual variability. Our study highlights that the accurate representation of LAI in land surface models is key to the simulation of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Hence this will become critical in quantifying the uncertainty in future changes in primary production.

Mulga, a major tropical dry open forest of Australia: recent insights to carbon and water fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo; Cleverly, James; Nolan, Rachael H.; Ma, Xuanlong; Tarin, Tonantzin; Santini, Nadia S.

2016-12-01

Mulga, comprised of a complex of closely related Acacia spp., grades from a low open forest to tall shrublands in tropical and sub-tropical arid and semi-arid regions of Australia and experiences warm-to-hot annual temperatures and a pronounced dry season. This short synthesis of current knowledge briefly outlines the causes of the extreme variability in rainfall characteristic of much of central Australia, and then discusses the patterns and drivers of variability in carbon and water fluxes of a central Australian low open Mulga forest. Variation in phenology and the impact of differences in the amount and timing of precipitation on vegetation function are then discussed. We use field observations, with particular emphasis on eddy covariance data, coupled with modelling and remote sensing products to interpret inter-seasonal and inter-annual patterns in the behaviour of this ecosystem. We show that Mulga can vary between periods of near carbon neutrality to periods of being a significant sink or source for carbon, depending on both the amount and timing of rainfall. Further, we demonstrate that Mulga contributed significantly to the 2011 global land sink anomaly, a result ascribed to the exceptional rainfall of 2010/2011. Finally, we compare and contrast the hydraulic traits of three tree species growing close to the Mulga and show how each species uses different combinations of trait strategies (for example, sapwood density, xylem vessel implosion resistance, phenological guild, access to groundwater and Huber value) to co-exist in this semi-arid environment. Understanding the inter-annual variability in functional behaviour of this important arid-zone biome and mechanisms underlying species co-existence will increase our ability to predict trajectories of carbon and water balances for future changing climates.

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Topp, Cairistiona F. E.; Moorby, Jon M.; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H.

2018-01-01

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years. PMID:29738581

Environmental, biological and anthropogenic effects on grizzly bear body size: temporal and spatial considerations.

PubMed

Nielsen, Scott E; Cattet, Marc R L; Boulanger, John; Cranston, Jerome; McDermid, Greg J; Shafer, Aaron B A; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2013-09-08

Individual body growth is controlled in large part by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of, and competition for, resources. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos L.) are an excellent species for studying the effects of resource heterogeneity and maternal effects (i.e. silver spoon) on life history traits such as body size because their habitats are highly variable in space and time. Here, we evaluated influences on body size of grizzly bears in Alberta, Canada by testing six factors that accounted for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environments during maternal, natal and 'capture' (recent) environments. After accounting for intrinsic biological factors (age, sex), we examined how body size, measured in mass, length and body condition, was influenced by: (a) population density; (b) regional habitat productivity; (c) inter-annual variability in productivity (including silver spoon effects); (d) local habitat quality; (e) human footprint (disturbances); and (f) landscape change. We found sex and age explained the most variance in body mass, condition and length (R(2) from 0.48-0.64). Inter-annual variability in climate the year before and of birth (silver spoon effects) had detectable effects on the three-body size metrics (R(2) from 0.04-0.07); both maternal (year before birth) and natal (year of birth) effects of precipitation and temperature were related with body size. Local heterogeneity in habitat quality also explained variance in body mass and condition (R(2) from 0.01-0.08), while annual rate of landscape change explained additional variance in body length (R(2) of 0.03). Human footprint and population density had no observed effect on body size. These results illustrated that body size patterns of grizzly bears, while largely affected by basic biological characteristics (age and sex), were also influenced by regional environmental gradients the year before, and of, the individual's birth thus illustrating silver spoon effects. The magnitude of the silver spoon effects was on par with the influence of contemporary regional habitat productivity, which showed that both temporal and spatial influences explain in part body size patterns in grizzly bears. Because smaller bears were found in colder and less-productive environments, we hypothesize that warming global temperatures may positively affect body mass of interior bears.

A comparison of four years of limnology in the Sawtooth Lakes with emphasis on fertilization in Redfish Lake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Budy, P.; Luecke, C.; Wurtsbaugh, W.A.

1996-05-01

Included in this section of the report on limnology of Lakes in the Snake River Plain are descriptions of four years of limnological sampling to compare inter and intra annual variability in lake productivity to evaluate potential rearing conditions for juvenile sockeyed salmon. Data was used to evaluate the effects of nutrient enhancement, annual weather patterns, and planktivore consumption on lake productivity.

Drivers of inter-year variability of plant production and decomposers across contrasting island ecosystems.

PubMed

Wardle, David A; Jonsson, Micael; Kalela-Brundin, Maarit; Lagerström, Anna; Bardgett, Richard D; Yeates, Gregor W; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte

2012-03-01

Despite the likely importance of inter-year dynamics of plant production and consumer biota for driving community- and ecosystem-level processes, very few studies have explored how and why these dynamics vary across contrasting ecosystems. We utilized a well-characterized system of 30 lake islands in the boreal forest zone of northern Sweden across which soil fertility and productivity vary considerably, with larger islands being more fertile and productive than smaller ones. In this system we assessed the inter-year dynamics of several measures of plant production and the soil microbial community (primary consumers in the decomposer food web) for each of nine years, and soil microfaunal groups (secondary and tertiary consumers) for each of six of those years. We found that, for measures of plant production and each of the three consumer trophic levels, inter-year dynamics were strongly affected by island size. Further, many variables were strongly affected by island size (and thus bottom-up regulation by soil fertility and resources) in some years, but not in other years, most likely due to inter-year variation in climatic conditions. For each of the plant and microbial variables for which we had nine years of data, we also determined the inter-year coefficient of variation (CV), an inverse measure of stability. We found that CVs of some measures of plant productivity were greater on large islands, whereas those of other measures were greater on smaller islands; CVs of microbial variables were unresponsive to island size. We also found that the effects of island size on the temporal dynamics of some variables were related to inter-year variability of macroclimatic variables. As such, our results show that the inter-year dynamics of both plant productivity and decomposer biota across each of three trophic levels, as well as the inter-year stability of plant productivity, differ greatly across contrasting ecosystems, with potentially important but largely overlooked implications for community and ecosystem processes.

Inter-annual variability and long term predictability of exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutov, Dmitri; Peliz, Álvaro; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Prieto, Laura; Ruiz, Javier; García-Lafuente, Jesus

2014-03-01

Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet. The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000-2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~ - 9 hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran system. The signal of this anomaly is also seen in time coefficients of the most significant EOF modes. The predictability of the exchanges for future climate is discussed.

Remote Sensing Approach to Drought Monitoring to Inform Range Management at the Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Vilaly, M. M.; Van Leeuwen, W. J.; Didan, K.; Marsh, S. E.; Crimmins, , M. A.

2012-12-01

The Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation are situated in the Northeastern corner of Arizona in the Colorado River Plateau. For more than a decade, the area has faced extensive and persistent drought conditions that have impacted vegetation communities and local water resources while exacerbating soil erosion. Moreover, these persistent droughts threaten ecosystem services, agriculture, and livestock production activities, and make this region sensitive to inter-annual climate variability and change. The limited hydroclimatic observations, bolstered by numerous anecdotal drought impact reports, indicate that the region has been suffering through an almost 15-year long drought which is threatening its socio-economic development. The objective of this research is to employ remote sensing data to monitor the ongoing drought and inform management and decision-making. The overall goals of this study are to develop a common understanding of the current status of drought across the area in order to understand the existing seasonal and inter-annual relationships between climate variability and vegetation dynamics. To analyze and investigate vegetation responses to climate variability, land use practices, and environmental factors in Hopi and Navajo nation during the last 22 years, a drought assessment framework was developed that integrates climate and topographical data with land surface remote sensing time series data. Multi-sensor Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series data were acquired from the vegetation index and phenology project (vip.arizona.edu) from 1989 to 2010 at 5.6 km, were analyzed to characterize the intra-annual changes of vegetation, seasonal phenology and inter-annual vegetation response to climate variability and environmental factors. Due to the low number of retrieval obtained from TIMESAT software, we developed a new framework that can maximize the number of retrieval. Four vegetation development stages, annual integrated NDVI (Net Primary Production (NPP)), minimum annual NDVI, maximum annual NDVI, and annual amplitude, were extracted using that new framework. A multi-linear regression has been applied to these vegetation phenology metrics as well as to the relationship between pheno-metrics and environmental variables, to detect potential vegetation changes and to examine the existing relationship between vegetation dynamics and rainfall and elevation gradients. The results suggest that vegetation behavior is foremost governed by rainfall gradients (R-square =0.74). Trend analyses confirmed that around 80 percent of pixels showed a general decline of greenness with confidence level of 95% (p< 0.05), while 4 percent showed a general greening up. Vegetation in the area showed a significant and strong relationship with elevation and precipitation gradients. This correlation was more prominent at mid-elevations, which could be explained by the snowmelt dynamics and hydrological redistribution of water at that elevation. These tools, methods and results can be used to aid in monitoring and understanding climate change and variability impacts on vegetation productivity, ecosystem services, and water resources of the region, and to inform decision-makers and range managers at Hopi Tribe and Navajo nation. Keywords: drought, remote sensing, time series, vegetation dynamics, Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nations

Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change

PubMed Central

Monahan, William B.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.

2014-01-01

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5th percentile or >95th percentile) climates relative to their 1901–2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change. PMID:24988483

Climate exposure of US national parks in a new era of change.

PubMed

Monahan, William B; Fisichelli, Nicholas A

2014-01-01

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5th percentile or >95th percentile) climates relative to their 1901-2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change.

On the Impact of Sea Level Fingerprints on the Estimation of the Meridional Geostrophic Transport in the Atlantic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, C. W.; Velicogna, I.

2017-12-01

The mid-ocean geostrophic transport accounts for more than half of the seasonal and inter-annual variabilities in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) based on the in-situ measurement from RAPID MOC/MOCHA array since 2004. Here, we demonstrate that the mid-ocean geostrophic transport estimates derived from ocean bottom pressure (OBP) are affected by the sea level fingerprint (SLF), which is a variation of the equi-geopotential height (relative sea level) due to rapid mass unloading of the entire Earth system and in particular from glaciers and ice sheets. This potential height change, although it alters the OBP, should not be included in the derivation of the mid-ocean geostrophic transport. This "pseudo" geostrophic-transport due to the SLF is in-phase with the seasonal and interannual signal in the upper mid-ocean geostrophic transport. The east-west SLF gradient across the Atlantic basin could be mistaken as a north-south geostrophic transport that increases by 54% of its seasonal variability and by 20% of its inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates for the first time the importance of this pseudo transport in both the annual and interannual signals by comparing the SLF with in-situ observation from RAPID MOC/MOCHA array. The pseudo transport needs to be taken into account if OBP measurements and remote sensing are used to derive mid-ocean geostrophic transport.

Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends, Seasonal Cycle, Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes.

PubMed

Humphrey, Vincent; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I

Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in terrestrial water storage. While an increasing number of case studies have provided a rich overview on regional analyses, a global assessment on the dominant features of GRACE variability is still lacking. To address this, we survey key features of temporal variability in the GRACE record by decomposing gridded time series of monthly equivalent water height into linear trends, inter-annual, seasonal, and subseasonal (intra-annual) components. We provide an overview of the relative importance and spatial distribution of these components globally. A correlation analysis with precipitation and temperature reveals that both the inter-annual and subseasonal anomalies are tightly related to fluctuations in the atmospheric forcing. As a novelty, we show that for large regions of the world high-frequency anomalies in the monthly GRACE signal, which have been partly interpreted as noise, can be statistically reconstructed from daily precipitation once an adequate averaging filter is applied. This filter integrates the temporally decaying contribution of precipitation to the storage changes in any given month, including earlier precipitation. Finally, we also survey extreme dry anomalies in the GRACE record and relate them to documented drought events. This global assessment sets regional studies in a broader context and reveals phenomena that had not been documented so far.

Assessing the Influence of Hydrological Connectivity on the Spawning Migration of Atlantic Salmon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazzaro, G.; Soulsby, C.; Tetzlaff, D.; Botter, G.

2016-12-01

Atlantic salmon is an economically and ecologically important fish species, whose survival is critically impacted by successful spawning in headwater gravel-bed rivers. Streamflow dynamics may have a strong control on spawning because adult fish require sufficiently high discharges to move upriver and reach spawning sites. We present a simple outflux-influx model linking the number of female salmon emigrating (i.e. outflux) and returning (i.e. influx) to a small spawning stream in Scotland (the Girnock Burn). The model explicitly accounts for the inter-annual variability of the hydrologic regime and its influence on hydrological connectivity. Model results are then compared against a unique long-term hydro-ecological dataset that includes annual fluxes of immigrant and emigrant salmon and daily discharges for about 40 years. The satisfactory model results confirm that hydrologic variability contributes significantly to the observed dynamics of salmon returns to the Girnock, with a good correlation between the positive (negative) peaks in the immigration dataset and the exceedance (non-exceedance) probability of a threshold flow (0.3 m3/s). Importantly, model performance deteriorates when the inter-annual variability of flow regime is disregarded. The analysis suggests that the hydrological connectivity represents a key feature of riverine systems, which needs to be carefully considered in settings where flow regimes are altered by water abstractions or diversions.

Atmospheric CO2 Variability Observed From ASCENDS Flight Campaigns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Browell, Edward; Campbell, Joel; Choi, Yonghoon; Dobler, Jeremy; Fan, Tai-Fang; Harrison, F. Wallace; Kooi, Susan; Liu, Zhaoyan; Meadows, Byron;

Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2005-05-01

Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From the estimation of present stress level (withdrawal to resource ratio), the months between January to May was found to have the highest number of population above water stress level, while the months between June to August having lower population in stress. The regions suffering from high seasonal variability are those of Asian monsoon zone, south-central Africa and central-east part of South America. Inter-annual variability, on the other hand, is dominant mostly along the Middle-east or Sahara regions and the western part of South America and Latin America. Virtual water trading among countries was estimated on per capita basis. It shows that many Middle east countries are able to compensate their water stress significantly through virtual water trading. The overall effect of climate change on lowering of river runoff mostly affected Europe, southern part of China and Latin America. India or Central Africa have better runoff availability under changing climate, but still subject to a higher water stress because of socio-economic factors like high population growth and expected increase in rate of water uses. Decrease in population as well as saturation level of maximum water uses along most European countries, on the contrary, relaxed the pressure of lowering river runoff, causing no significant change in future stress.

Annual and seasonal distribution of intertidal foraminifera and stable carbon isotope geochemistry, Bandon Marsh, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milker, Yvonne; Horton, Benjamin; Vane, Christopher; Engelhart, Simon; Nelson, Alan R.; Witter, Robert C.; Khan, Nicole S.; Bridgeland, William

2014-01-01

We investigated the influence of inter-annual and seasonal differences on the distribution of live and dead foraminifera, and the inter-annual variability of stable carbon isotopes (d13C), total organic carbon (TOC) values and carbon to nitrogen (C/N) ratios in bulk sediments from intertidal environments of Bandon Marsh (Oregon, USA). Living and dead foraminiferal species from 10 stations were analyzed over two successive years in the summer (dry) and fall (wet) seasons. There were insignificant inter-annual and seasonal variations in the distribution of live and dead species. But there was a noticeable decrease in calcareous assemblages (Haynesina sp.) between live populations and dead assemblages, indicating that most of the calcareous tests were dissolved after burial; the agglutinated assemblages were comparable between constituents. The live populations and dead assemblages were dominated by Miliammina fusca in the tidal flat and low marsh, Jadammina macrescens, Trochammina inflata and M. fusca in the high marsh, and Trochamminita irregularis and Balticammina pseudomacrescens in the highest marsh to upland. Geochemical analyses (d13C, TOC and C/N of bulk sedimentary organic matter) show no significant influence of inter-annual variations but a significant correlation of d13C values (R = 20.820, p , 0.001), TOC values (R = 0.849, p , 0.001) and C/N ratios (R = 0.885, p , 0.001) to elevation with respect to the tidal frame. Our results suggest that foraminiferal assemblages and d13C and TOC values, as well as C/N ratios, in Bandon Marsh are useful in reconstructing paleosea-levels on the North American Pacific coast.

Coherent response of the Indo-African boreal summer monsoon to Pacific SST captured in Ethiopian rain δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhavan, M.; Palliyil, L. R.; Ramesh, R.

2017-12-01

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) plays an important role in the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of boreal monsoons. We identified a common mode of inter annual variability in the Indian and African boreal summer monsoon (June to September) rainfalls, which is linked to Pacific SSTs, using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Temporal coefficients (Principle component: PC1) of the leading mode of variability (EOF-1) is well correlated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Sahel rainfall. About forty year long monthly observations of δ18O (and δD) at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia show a strong association with PC1 (r=0.69 for δ18O and r=0.75 for δD). Analysis of SST, sea level pressure and lower tropospheric winds suggest that 18O depletion in Ethiopian rainfall (and wet phases of PC1) is associated with cooler eastern tropical Pacific and warmer western Pacific and strengthening of Pacific subtropical high in both the hemispheres. Associated changes in the trade winds cause enhanced westerly moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and northern Africa and cause enhanced rainfall. The intrusion of Atlantic westerly component of moisture transport at Addis Ababa during wet phases of PC1 is clearly recorded in δ18O of rain. We also observe the same common mode of variability (EOF1) of Indo-African boreal summer monsoon rain on decadal time scales. A 100 year long δ18O record of actively growing speleothem from the Mechara cave, Ethiopia, matches very well with the PC1 on the decadal time scale. This highlights the potential of speleothem δ18O and leaf wax δD from Ethiopia to investigate the natural variability and teleconnections of Indo-African boreal monsoon.

Lake Superior: Nearshore Variability and a Landscape Driver Concept

EPA Science Inventory

High spatial variation is well known to exist in water quality parameters of the Great Lakes nearshore, however strong patterns for extended reaches are also observed and found to be robust across a seasonal time frame. Less is known about robustness of inter-annual variation wi...

Inter-annual variability in spring abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus from the overwintering population in the southeastern Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, Nicolas; Bagøien, Espen; Melle, Webjørn

2017-03-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea, where it plays a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This paper analyses a 17-year time series, 1996-2012, on C. finmarchicus collected within the Atlantic Water mass along the Svinøy transect in the southeastern Norwegian Sea. We use the spring abundance of adult as a proxy for the size of C. finmarchicus' overwintered population. The inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus in the 200-0 m depth-stratum is assessed while accounting for spring population development to the adult stage represented by day of year for sampling, inter-annual changes in timing of population development, and spatial differences. For the most oceanic stations, a significant inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus was revealed using generalized additive models (GAM). This trend primarily consists in an increase prior to year 2000 and a decrease between years 2000 and ca. 2011. For the stations closer to the coast, the identified inter-annual trend is a decrease during a longer period from the late 90s until ca. 2011. From 2000 to 2011, our estimates suggest a 50% decrease for the most oceanic stations, and as much as an 81% decrease for the stations closer to the coast. In addition the results suggest a consistent change in phenology over the years and the stations. The predicted spring peak of overwintered adult population abundance is suggested to become shorter by 3 days, and the predicted maximum of abundance to take place 4 days earlier over the 17 years of the time-series. The results highlight significant changes in intensity and timing of the overwintered population of a key zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea that may have important implications on the scale of an entire ecosystem.

Implications for water use of a shift from annual to perennial crops - A stochastic modelling approach based on a trait meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Brunsell, Nathaniel

2017-04-01

The projected population growth and changes in climate and dietary habits will further increase the pressure on water resources globally. Within precision farming, a host of technical solutions has been developed to reduce water consumption for agricultural uses. The next frontier for a more sustainable agriculture is the combination of reduced water requirements with enhanced ecosystem services. Currently, staple grains are obtained from annuals crops. A shift from annual to perennial crops has been suggested as a way to enhance ecosystem services. In fact, perennial plants, with their continuous soil cover and the higher allocation of resources to the below ground, contribute to the reduction of soil erosion and nutrient losses, while enhancing carbon sequestration in the root zone. Nevertheless, the net effect of a shift to perennial crops on water use for agriculture is still unknown, despite its relevance for the sustainability of such a shift. We explore here the implications for water management at the field- to farm-scale of a shift from annual to perennial crops, under rainfed and irrigated agriculture. A probabilistic description of the soil water balance and crop development is employed to quantify water requirements and yields and their inter-annual variability, as a function of rainfall patterns, soil and crop features. Optimal irrigation strategies are thus defined in terms of maximization of yield and minimization of required irrigation volumes and their inter-annual variability. The probabilistic model is parameterized based on an extensive meta-analysis of traits of co-generic annual and perennial species to explore the consequences for water requirements of shifting from annual to perennial crops under current and future climates. We show that the larger and more developed roots of perennial crops may allow a better exploitation of soil water resources and a reduction of yield variability with respect to annual species. At the same time, perennial crops are larger and may require adequate water supply for longer periods, thus leading to higher water requirements. Furthermore, they lead to lower yields per unit area, thus requiring irrigation of larger areas.

Multi-criteria Evaluation of Discharge Simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; Piao, S.; Zeng, Z.; Ciais, P.; Yin, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sitch, S.; Ahlström, A.; Guimberteau, M.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Huang, M.; Li, Y.; Li, X.; Lomas, M.; Peylin, P. P.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.; Wang, L.

2015-12-01

In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modelled well in the low and mid latitudes, but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore the 30-year trend of discharge is also under-estimated. For the inter-annual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e. models account for 50% of observed inter-annual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change, but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modelling capability, a regional-weighted average of multi-model ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.

Beyond Metrics? The Role of Hydrologic Baseline Archetypes in Environmental Water Management.

PubMed

Lane, Belize A; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; Stein, Eric D; Yarnell, Sarah M; Pasternack, Gregory B; Dahlke, Helen E

2018-06-22

Balancing ecological and human water needs often requires characterizing key aspects of the natural flow regime and then predicting ecological response to flow alterations. Flow metrics are generally relied upon to characterize long-term average statistical properties of the natural flow regime (hydrologic baseline conditions). However, some key aspects of hydrologic baseline conditions may be better understood through more complete consideration of continuous patterns of daily, seasonal, and inter-annual variability than through summary metrics. Here we propose the additional use of high-resolution dimensionless archetypes of regional stream classes to improve understanding of baseline hydrologic conditions and inform regional environmental flows assessments. In an application to California, we describe the development and analysis of hydrologic baseline archetypes to characterize patterns of flow variability within and between stream classes. We then assess the utility of archetypes to provide context for common flow metrics and improve understanding of linkages between aquatic patterns and processes and their hydrologic controls. Results indicate that these archetypes may offer a distinct and complementary tool for researching mechanistic flow-ecology relationships, assessing regional patterns for streamflow management, or understanding impacts of changing climate.

A High-Resolution ENSO-Driven Rainfall Record Derived From an Exceptionally Fast Growing Stalagmite From Niue Island (South Pacific)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, S.; Aharon, P.; Lambert, W. J.

2012-12-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) dominant control over the present global climate and its unpredictable response to a global warming makes the study of paleo-ENSO important. So far corals, spanning the Tropical Pacific Ocean, are the most commonly used geological archives of paleo-ENSO. This is because corals typically exhibit high growth rates (>1 cm/yr), and reproduce reliably surface water temperatures at sub-annual resolution. However there are limitations to coral archives because their time span is relatively brief (in the order of centuries), thus far making a long and continuous ENSO record difficult to achieve. On the other hand stalagmites from island settings can offer long and continuous records of ENSO-driven rainfall. Niue Island caves offer an unusual opportunity to investigate ENSO-driven paleo-rainfall because the island is isolated from other large land masses, making it untainted by continental climate artifacts, and its geographical location is within the Tropical Pacific "rain pool" (South Pacific Convergence Zone; SPCZ) that makes the rainfall variability particularly sensitive to the ENSO phase switches. We present here a δ18O and δ13C time series from a stalagmite sampled on Niue Island (19°00' S, 169°50' W) that exhibits exceptionally high growth rates (~1.2 mm/yr) thus affording a resolution comparable to corals but for much longer time spans. A precise chronology, dating back to several millennia, was achieved by U/Th dating of the stalagmite. The stalagmite was sampled using a Computer Automated Mill (CAM) at 300 μm increments in order to receive sub-annual resolution (every 3 months) and calcite powders of 50-100 μg weight were analyzed for δ18O and δ13C using a Continuous Flow Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometer (CF-IRMS). The isotope time series contains variable shifts at seasonal, inter-annual, and inter-decadal periodicities. The δ13C and δ18O yield ranges of -3.0 to -13.0 (‰ VPDB) and -3.2 to -6.2 (‰ VPDB), respectively. The presentation will describe the factors impacting the seasonal, inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in a highly resolved ENSO record.

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics.

PubMed

Fernández, Néstor; Román, Jacinto; Delibes, Miguel

2016-04-13

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity--a major outcome of ecosystem functions--on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. © 2016 The Authors.

Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-08-16

Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow.Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

INTER-ANNUAL AND SEASONAL VARIABILITY OF METEOROLOGICALLY-INFLUENCED EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is a participant in the U.S. Global Change Research Program (CGRP). The air quality portion of the GCRP addresses the effect on air quality attributable to climate change in the intermediate future (e.g., 2050). The first phase of ...

INTER-ANNUAL AND SEASONAL VARIABILITY OF METEOROLOGICALLY-INFLUENCED EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA is a participant in the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The air quality portion of the GCRP addresses the effect on air quality attributable to climate change in the intermediate future (e.g., 2050). The first phase of the program examines the change in air quality...

Lake Superior: Nearshore Variability and a Landscape Driver Concept (journal article)

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial variation is well known to exist in water quality parameters of the Great Lakes nearshore, however strong patterns for extended reaches also have been observed and found to be robust across seasonal time frames. Less is known about robustness of inter-annual variation wi...

Regional climate services: A regional partnership between NOAA and USDA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate services in the Midwest and Northern Plains regions have been enhanced by a recent addition of the USDA Climate Hubs to NOAA’s existing network of partners. This new partnership stems from the intrinsic variability of intra and inter-annual climatic conditions, which makes decision-making fo...

Portfolio theory as a management tool to guide conservation and restoration of multi-stock fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

DuFour, Mark R.; May, Cassandra J.; Roseman, Edward F.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Pritt, Jeremy J.; Fraker, Michael E.; Davis, Jeremiah J.; Tyson, Jeffery T.; Miner, Jeffery G.; Marschall, Elizabeth A.; Mayer, Christine M.

2015-01-01

Habitat degradation and harvest have upset the natural buffering mechanism (i.e., portfolio effects) of many large-scale multi-stock fisheries by reducing spawning stock diversity that is vital for generating population stability and resilience. The application of portfolio theory offers a means to guide management activities by quantifying the importance of multi-stock dynamics and suggesting conservation and restoration strategies to improve naturally occurring portfolio effects. Our application of portfolio theory to Lake Erie Sander vitreus (walleye), a large population that is supported by riverine and open-lake reef spawning stocks, has shown that portfolio effects generated by annual inter-stock larval fish production are currently suboptimal when compared to potential buffering capacity. Reduced production from riverine stocks has resulted in a single open-lake reef stock dominating larval production, and in turn, high inter-annual recruitment variability during recent years. Our analyses have shown (1) a weak average correlation between annual river and reef larval production (ρ̄ = 0.24), suggesting that a natural buffering capacity exists in the population, and (2) expanded annual production of larvae (potential recruits) from riverine stocks could stabilize the fishery by dampening inter-annual recruitment variation. Ultimately, our results demonstrate how portfolio theory can be used to quantify the importance of spawning stock diversity and guide management on ecologically relevant scales (i.e., spawning stocks) leading to greater stability and resilience of multi-stock populations and fisheries.

Accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variability in regionalization of hydrologic response in the Great Lakes basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kult, J. M.; Fry, L. M.; Gronewold, A. D.

2012-12-01

Methods for predicting streamflow in areas with limited or nonexistent measures of hydrologic response typically invoke the concept of regionalization, whereby knowledge pertaining to gauged catchments is transferred to ungauged catchments. In this study, we identify watershed physical characteristics acting as primary drivers of hydrologic response throughout the US portion of the Great Lakes basin. Relationships between watershed physical characteristics and hydrologic response are generated from 166 catchments spanning a variety of climate, soil, land cover, and land form regimes through regression tree analysis, leading to a grouping of watersheds exhibiting similar hydrologic response characteristics. These groupings are then used to predict response in ungauged watersheds in an uncertainty framework. Results from this method are assessed alongside one historical regionalization approach which, while simple, has served as a cornerstone of Great Lakes regional hydrologic research for several decades. Our approach expands upon previous research by considering multiple temporal characterizations of hydrologic response. Due to the substantial inter-annual and seasonal variability in hydrologic response observed over the Great Lakes basin, results from the regression tree analysis differ considerably depending on the level of temporal aggregation used to define the response. Specifically, higher levels of temporal aggregation for the response metric (for example, indices derived from long-term means of climate and streamflow observations) lead to improved watershed groupings with lower within-group variance. However, this perceived improvement in model skill occurs at the cost of understated uncertainty when applying the regression to time series simulations or as a basis for model calibration. In such cases, our results indicate that predictions based on long-term characterizations of hydrologic response can produce misleading conclusions when applied at shorter time steps. This study suggests that measures of hydrologic response quantified at these shorter time steps may provide a more robust basis for making predictions in applications of water resource management, model calibration and simulations, and human health and safety.

Stochastic soil water balance under seasonal climates

PubMed Central

Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2015-01-01

The analysis of soil water partitioning in seasonally dry climates necessarily requires careful consideration of the periodic climatic forcing at the intra-annual timescale in addition to daily scale variabilities. Here, we introduce three new extensions to a stochastic soil moisture model which yields seasonal evolution of soil moisture and relevant hydrological fluxes. These approximations allow seasonal climatic forcings (e.g. rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) to be fully resolved, extending the analysis of soil water partitioning to account explicitly for the seasonal amplitude and the phase difference between the climatic forcings. The results provide accurate descriptions of probabilistic soil moisture dynamics under seasonal climates without requiring extensive numerical simulations. We also find that the transfer of soil moisture between the wet to the dry season is responsible for hysteresis in the hydrological response, showing asymmetrical trajectories in the mean soil moisture and in the transient Budyko's curves during the ‘dry-down‘ versus the ‘rewetting‘ phases of the year. Furthermore, in some dry climates where rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are in-phase, annual evapotranspiration can be shown to increase because of inter-seasonal soil moisture transfer, highlighting the importance of soil water storage in the seasonal context. PMID:25663808

Combining NLCD and MODIS to create a land cover-albedo database for the continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wickham, J.; Barnes, Christopher A.; Nash, M.S.; Wade, T.G.

2015-01-01

Land surface albedo is an essential climate variable that is tightly linked to land cover, such that specific land cover classes (e.g., deciduous broadleaf forest, cropland) have characteristic albedos. Despite the normative of land-cover class specific albedos, there is considerable variability in albedo within a land cover class. The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo product were combined to produce a long-term (14 years) integrated land cover-albedo database for the continental United States that can be used to examine the temporal behavior of albedo as a function of land cover. The integration identifies areas of homogeneous land cover at the nominal spatial resolution of the MODIS (MCD43A) albedo product (500 m × 500 m) from the NLCD product (30 m × 30 m), and provides an albedo data record per 500 m × 500 m pixel for 14 of the 16 NLCD land cover classes. Individual homogeneous land cover pixels have up to 605 albedo observations, and 75% of the pixels have at least 319 MODIS albedo observations (≥ 50% of the maximum possible number of observations) for the study period (2000–2013). We demonstrated the utility of the database by conducting a multivariate analysis of variance of albedo for each NLCD land cover class, showing that locational (pixel-to-pixel) and inter-annual variability were significant factors in addition to expected seasonal (intra-annual) and geographic (latitudinal) effects.

The role of ecosystem memory in predicting inter-annual variations of the tropical carbon balance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloom, A. A.; Liu, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Konings, A. G.; Saatchi, S.; Worden, J. R.; Worden, H. M.; Jiang, Z.; Parazoo, N.; Williams, M. D.; Schimel, D.

2017-12-01

Understanding the trajectory of the tropical carbon balance remains challenging, in part due to large uncertainties in the integrated response of carbon cycle processes to climate variability. Satellite observations atmospheric CO2 from GOSAT and OCO-2, together with ancillary satellite measurements, provide crucial constraints on continental-scale terrestrial carbon fluxes. However, an integrated understanding of both climate forcings and legacy effects (or "ecosystem memory") on the terrestrial carbon balance is ultimately needed to reduce uncertainty on its future trajectory. Here we use the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) diagnostic model-data fusion approach - constrained by an array of C cycle satellite surface observations, including MODIS leaf area, biomass, GOSAT solar-induced fluorescence, as well as "top-down" atmospheric inversion estimates of CO2 and CO surface fluxes from the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) - to constrain and predict spatially-explicit tropical carbon state variables during 2010-2015. We find that the combined assimilation of land surface and atmospheric datasets places key constraints on the temperature sensitivity and first order carbon-water feedbacks throughout the tropics and combustion factors within biomass burning regions. By varying the duration of the assimilation period, we find that the prediction skill on inter-annual net biospheric exchange is primarily limited by record length rather than model structure and process representation. We show that across all tropical biomes, quantitative knowledge of memory effects - which account for 30-50% of interannual variations across the tropics - is critical for understanding and ultimately predicting the inter-annual tropical carbon balance.

Characterization of seasonal and inter-annual variability in global water bodies using annual MODIS water maps 2000 - 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbard, A. B.; Carroll, M.

2017-12-01

Accurate maps of surface water resources are critical for long-term resource management, characterization of extreme events, and integration into various science products. Unfortunately, most of the currently available surface water products do not adequately represent inter- and intra-annual variation in water extent, resulting from both natural fluctuations in the hydrologic cycle and human activities. To capture this variability, annual water maps were generated from Terra MODIS data at 250 m resolution for the years 2000 through 2016, using the same algorithm employed to generate the previously released MOD44W Collection 5 static water mask (Carroll et al., 2009). Following efforts to verify the data and remove false positives, the final maps were submitted to the Land Processes DAAC for publication as MOD44W Collection 6.1. Analysis of these maps indicate that only about two thirds of inland water pixels were persistent throughout all 16 years of data, meaning that roughly one third of the surface water detected in this period displayed some degree of inter-annual variation. In addition to the annual datasets, water observations were aggregated by quarter for each year from 2003 through 2016 using the same algorithm and observations from both Terra and Aqua. Analysis of these seasonal maps is ongoing, but preliminary investigation indicates they capture dramatic intra-annual fluctuations of water extent in many regions. In cloudy regions, it is difficult or impossible to consistently measure this intra-annual variation without the twice-daily temporal resolution of the MODIS sensors. While the moderate spatial resolution of MODIS is a constraint, these datasets are suitable for studying such fluctuations in medium to large water bodies, or at regional to global scales. These maps also provide a baseline record of historical surface water resources, against which future change can be compared. Finally, comparisons with the MOD44W Collection 5 static water mask indicate that major changes have occurred in many areas since the early 2000s, rendering these maps an equally valuable update for static water masking applications. ReferencesCarroll, M.L., Townshend, J.R., DiMiceli, C.M., Noojipady, P., & Sohlberg, R.A. (2009). A new global raster water mask at 250 m resolution. Int J Digit Earth, 2, 291-308.

Mechanisms of long-term mean sea level variability in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dangendorf, Sönke; Calafat, Francisco; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even; Richter, Kristin; Jensen, Jürgen

2015-04-01

We examine mean sea level (MSL) variations in the North Sea on timescales ranging from months to decades under the consideration of different forcing factors since the late 19th century. We use multiple linear regression models, which are validated for the second half of the 20th century against the output of a state-of-the-art tide+surge model (HAMSOM), to determine the barotropic response of the ocean to fluctuations in atmospheric forcing. We demonstrate that local atmospheric forcing mainly triggers MSL variability on timescales up to a few years, with the inverted barometric effect dominating the variability along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind (piling up the water along the coast) controlling the MSL variability in the south from Belgium up to Denmark. However, in addition to the large inter-annual sea level variability there is also a considerable fraction of decadal scale variability. We show that on decadal timescales MSL variability in the North Sea mainly reflects steric changes, which are mostly remotely forced. A spatial correlation analysis of altimetry observations and baroclinic ocean model outputs suggests evidence for a coherent signal extending from the Norwegian shelf down to the Canary Islands. This supports the theory of longshore wind forcing along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic causing coastally trapped waves to propagate along the continental slope. With a combination of oceanographic and meteorological measurements we demonstrate that ~80% of the decadal sea level variability in the North Sea can be explained as response of the ocean to longshore wind forcing, including boundary wave propagation in the Northeast Atlantic. These findings have important implications for (i) detecting significant accelerations in North Sea MSL, (ii) the conceptual set up of regional ocean models in terms of resolution and boundary conditions, and (iii) the development of adequate and realistic regional climate change projections.

Precipitation variability as a strong determinant on tree cover across global tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X.; Medvigy, D.; Guan, K.; Trugman, A. T.; Good, S. P.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2017-12-01

Tropical and subtropical ecosystems support a significant carbon sink and storage and provide various ecosystem services. One challenge for these ecosystems is the changing precipitation variability (PV), which is likely to become more extreme under on-going climate change. However, there is a lack of consensus in the determining role of PV on tropical tree cover, which is a widely-used indicator for ecosystem state and functions in the tropics, as well as the underlying mechanism. Here, we ask whether changes in PV by themselves are likely to lead to changes in tropical tree cover. Using a combination of climate, soil and remotely-sensed tree cover data, we comprehensively assess the effects of PV on tree cover spatial variations at intra-seasonal, seasonal and inter-annual scales. We find that PV contributes 33% -56% to the total explained spatial variation (65% -79%) in tree cover. The contribution of PV depends on mean annual precipitation (MAP) and is highest under intermediate MAP (500 - 1500 mm). In general, tree cover increases with rainy day frequency and wet season length but shows mixed responses to inter-annual precipitation variability. We further use a biophysical model to show that the PV-tree cover relation can be explained by tree-grass water competition. Our results suggest that tropical tree cover can decrease by 3-5% overall and by up to 20% in Amazonia under projected changes in PV at the end of this century.

Characterizing phenological vegetation dynamics amidst extreme climate variability in Australia with MODIS VI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broich, M.; Huete, A. R.; Xuanlon, M.; Davies, K.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Ratana, P.

2012-12-01

Australia's climate is extremely variable with inter-annual rainfall at any given site varying by 5- or 6-fold or more, across the continent. In addition to such inter-annual variability, there can be significant intra-annual variability, especially in monsoonal Australia (e.g. the wet tropical savannas) and Mediterranean climates in SW Australia where prolonged dry seasons occur each year. This presents unique challenges to the characterization of seasonal dynamics with satellite datasets. In contrast to annual reoccurring temperature-driven phenology of northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, vegetation dynamics of the vast and dry Australian interior are poorly quantified by existing remote sensing products. For example, in the current global-based MODIS phenology product, central Australia is covered by ~30% fill values for any given year. Two challenges are specific to Australian landscapes: first, the difficulty of characterizing seasonality of rainfall-driven ecosystems in interior Australia where duration and magnitude of green-up and brown down cycles show high inter annual variability; second, modeling two phenologic layers, the trees and the grass in savannas were the trees are evergreen but the herbaceous understory varies with rainfall. Savannas cover >50% of Australia. Australia's vegetation and climate are different from other continents. A MODIS phenology product capable of characterizing vegetation dynamics across the continent is being developed in this research as part of the AusCover national expert network aiming to provide Australian biophysical remote sensing data time-series and continental-scale map products. These products aim to support the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) serving ecosystem research in Australia. The MODIS land surface product for Australia first searches the entire time series of each Climate Modeling Grid pixel for low-high-low extreme point sequences. A double logistic function is then fit to each of these sequences allowing identification of growth periods with different magnitudes and durations anywhere in the time series. Results show that the highest absolute variability in peak greenness occurred in cropped areas while the highest relative variability (coefficient of variation) occurred in interior Australia particularly around Lake Eyre, the center of a closed drainage basin in the dry interior of the continent. Across the desert interior, the timing of the green-up onset and the peak greenness was correlated with the landfall of cyclones and the inland penetration and strength of the north Australian summer monsoon (represented by TRMM data). The variability of Australian land surface phenology magnitude and timing was found to be strongly correlated with the swings between La Nina and El Nino events. The information on vegetation dynamics represented here is critical for land surface, fuel accumulation, agricultural production, and permanent ecosystem change modeling in relation to climate trends. A unique research opportunity is provided by recent climate variability: in 2010 a persistent El Nino has given way to a strong two-year La Nina breaking a decade long drought that was followed by record-breaking rainfall across most of the continent and extensive flooding followed by sustained greening.

Long-Term and Seasonal Dynamics of Dengue in Iquitos, Peru

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Steven T.; Wearing, Helen J.; Reiner, Robert C.; Morrison, Amy C.; Astete, Helvio; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Alvarez, Carlos; Ramal-Asayag, Cesar; Sihuincha, Moises; Rocha, Claudio; Halsey, Eric S.; Scott, Thomas W.; Kochel, Tadeusz J.; Forshey, Brett M.

2014-01-01

Introduction Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data. Methods We studied 10 years (2000–2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases. Findings Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001–2007) then DENV-4 (2008–2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season. Conclusions Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos. PMID:25033412

Remotely Sensed Northern Vegetation Response to Changing Climate: Growing Season and Productivity Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganguly, S.; Park, Taejin; Choi, Sungho; Bi, Jian; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Myneni, Ranga

2016-01-01

Vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of seasonal total gross primary productivity of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts on growing season and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we first investigate how vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthesis state are evolved and how such components contribute on inter-annual variation of seasonal total gross primary productivity. Furthermore, seasonally different response of northern vegetation to changing temperature and water availability is also investigated. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed data to extract larger scale growing season metrics (growing season start, end and duration) and productivity (i.e., growing season summed vegetation index, GSSVI) for answering these questions. We find that regionally diverged growing season shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity inter-annual variability and trend. Also seasonally different response of vegetation gives different view of spatially varying interaction between vegetation and climate. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation to changing climate.

Preface and brief synthesis for the FOODBANCS volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Craig R.; DeMaster, David J.

2008-11-01

In this volume we present results from the FOODBANCS Project, which examined the fate and benthic community impact of summer bloom material on the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf floor. The project involved a 5-cruise, 15-month time-series program in which sediment-trap moorings, core sampling, radiochemical profiling, sediment respirometry, bottom photography, and bottom trawling were used to evaluate: (1) seafloor deposition and lability of POC, (2) patterns of labile POC consumption and sediment mixing by benthos, and (3) seasonal and inter-annual variations in biotic abundance, biomass, reproductive condition, recruitment, and sediment community respiration. We find that the seafloor flux and accumulation of particulate organic carbon on the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf exhibit intense seasonal and interannual variability. Nonetheless, many key benthic processes, including organic-matter degradation, bioturbation, deposit feeding, and faunal abundance, reproduction and recruitment, show relatively muted response to this intense seasonal and inter-annual variability in export flux. We thus hypothesize that benthic ecosystems on the Antarctic shelf act as "low-pass" filters, and may be extremely useful in resolving the impacts of climatic change over periods of years to decades in Antarctic Peninsula region.

The implications of variable remigration intervals for the assessment of population size in marine turtles.

PubMed

Hays, G C

2000-09-21

Sea turtles nest on sandy beaches and tend to show high fidelity to specific nesting areas, but, despite this fidelity, the inter-annual variation in nesting numbers may be large. This variation may reflect the fact that turtles do not usually nest in consecutive years. Here, theoretical models are developed in which the interval between successive nesting years (the remigration interval) reflects conditions encountered on the feeding grounds, with good feeding years leading to a reduction in the remigration interval and vice versa. These simple models produce high levels of inter-annual variation in nesting numbers with, on occasion, almost no turtles nesting in some years even when the population is large and stable. The implications for assessing the size of sea turtle populations are considered. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Bioenergetics modeling of the annual consumption of zooplankton by pelagic fish feeding in the Northeast Atlantic

PubMed Central

Utne, Kjell Rong; Jansen, Teunis; Huse, Geir

2018-01-01

The present study uses bioenergetics modeling to estimate the annual consumption of the main zooplankton groups by some of the most commercially important planktivorous fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, namely Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) and NEA mackerel (Scomber scombrus). The data was obtained from scientific surveys in the main feeding area (Norwegian Sea) in the period 2005–2010. By incorporating novel information about ambient temperature, seasonal growth and changes in the diet from stomach content analyses, annual consumption of the different zooplankton groups by pelagic fish is estimated. The present study estimates higher consumption estimates than previous studies for the three species and suggests that fish might have a greater impact on the zooplankton community as foragers. This way, NEA mackerel, showing the highest daily consumption rates, and NSS herring, annually consume around 10 times their total biomass, whereas blue whiting consume about 6 times their biomass in zooplankton. The three species were estimated to consume an average of 135 million (M) tonnes of zooplankton each year, consisting of 53–85 M tonnes of copepods, 20–32 M tonnes of krill, 8–42 M tonnes of appendicularians and 0.2–1.2 M tonnes of fish, depending on the year. For NSS herring and NEA mackerel the main prey groups are calanoids and appendicularians, showing a peak in consumption during June and June–July, respectively, and suggesting high potential for inter-specific feeding competition between these species. In contrast, blue whiting maintain a low consumption rate from April to September, consuming mainly larger euphausiids. Our results suggest that the three species can coexist regardless of their high abundance, zooplankton consumption rates and overlapping diet. Accordingly, the species might have niche segregation, as they are species specific, showing annual and inter-annual variability in total consumption of the different prey species. These estimates and their inter-annual and inter-specific variation are fundamental for understanding fundamental pelagic predator-prey interactions as well as to inform advanced multispecies ecosystem models. PMID:29293577

Localised residency and inter-annual fidelity to coastal foraging areas may place sea bass at risk to local depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, Thomas K.; Haberlin, Damien; Clohessy, Jim; Bennison, Ashley; Jessopp, Mark

2017-04-01

For many marine migratory fish, comparatively little is known about the movement of individuals rather than the population. Yet, such individual-based movement data is vitally important to understand variability in migratory strategies and fidelity to foraging locations. A case in point is the economically important European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) that inhabits coastal waters during the summer months before migrating offshore to spawn and overwinter. Beyond this broad generalisation we have very limited information on the movements of individuals at coastal foraging grounds. We used acoustic telemetry to track the summer movements and seasonal migrations of individual sea bass in a large tidally and estuarine influenced coastal environment. We found that the vast majority of tagged sea bass displayed long-term residency (mean, 167 days) and inter-annual fidelity (93% return rate) to specific areas. We describe individual fish home ranges of 3 km or less, and while fish clearly had core resident areas, there was movement of fish between closely located receivers. The combination of inter-annual fidelity to localised foraging areas makes sea bass very susceptible to local depletion; however, the designation of protected areas for sea bass may go a long way to ensuring the sustainability of this species.

Localised residency and inter-annual fidelity to coastal foraging areas may place sea bass at risk to local depletion

PubMed Central

Doyle, Thomas K.; Haberlin, Damien; Clohessy, Jim; Bennison, Ashley; Jessopp, Mark

2017-01-01

For many marine migratory fish, comparatively little is known about the movement of individuals rather than the population. Yet, such individual-based movement data is vitally important to understand variability in migratory strategies and fidelity to foraging locations. A case in point is the economically important European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) that inhabits coastal waters during the summer months before migrating offshore to spawn and overwinter. Beyond this broad generalisation we have very limited information on the movements of individuals at coastal foraging grounds. We used acoustic telemetry to track the summer movements and seasonal migrations of individual sea bass in a large tidally and estuarine influenced coastal environment. We found that the vast majority of tagged sea bass displayed long-term residency (mean, 167 days) and inter-annual fidelity (93% return rate) to specific areas. We describe individual fish home ranges of 3 km or less, and while fish clearly had core resident areas, there was movement of fish between closely located receivers. The combination of inter-annual fidelity to localised foraging areas makes sea bass very susceptible to local depletion; however, the designation of protected areas for sea bass may go a long way to ensuring the sustainability of this species. PMID:28374772

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Changes in the Distribution of Dominant Phytoplancton Groups in the Global Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Severine, A.; Cyril, M.; Yves, D.; Laurent, B.; Hubert, L.

2006-12-01

The fate of fixed organic carbon in the ocean strongly varies with the phytoplankton group that makes photosynthesis. The monitoring of phytoplankton groups in the global ocean is thus of primary importance to evaluate and improve ocean carbon models. A new method (PHYSAT; Alvain et al., 2005) enables to distinguish between four different groups from space using SeaWiFS ocean color measurements. In addition to these four initial phytoplankton groups, which are diatoms, Prochlorococcus, Synecochoccus and haptophytes, we show that PHYSAT is also capable of identifying blooms of phaeocystis and coccolithophorids. Daily global SeaWiFS level-3 data from September 1997 to December 2004 were processed using PHYSAT. We present here the first monthly mean global climatology of the dominant phytoplankton groups. The seasonal cycle is discussed, with particular emphasis on the succession of phytoplankton groups during the North Atlantic spring bloom and on the coexistence of large phaeocystis and diatoms blooms during winter in the Austral Ocean. We also present the inter-annual variability for the 1998-2004 period. The contribution of diatoms to the total chlorophyll is highly variable (up to a factor of two) from one year to the other in both Atlantic and Austral Oceans, suggesting a significant variability in organic carbon export by diatoms in these regions. On the opposite, the phaeocystis contribution is less variable in the Austral Ocean.

UK Renal Registry 16th annual report: chapter 12 biochemical variables amongst UK adult dialysis patients in 2012: national and centre-specific analyses.

PubMed

Nicholas, Johann; Shaw, Catriona; Pitcher, David; Dawnay, Anne

2013-01-01

The UK Renal Association clinical practice guidelines include clinical performance measures for biochemical variables in dialysis patients. The UK Renal Registry (UKRR) annually audits dialysis centre performance against these measures as part of its role in promoting continuous quality improvement. Cross sectional performance analyses were undertaken to compare dialysis centre achievement of clinical audit measures for prevalent haemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) cohorts in 2012. The biochemical variables studied were phosphate, adjusted calcium, parathyroid hormone, bicarbonate and total cholesterol. In addition, longitudinal analyses were performed (2002-2012) to show changes in achievement of clinical performance measures over time. Fifty-six percent of HD and 61% of PD patients achieved a phosphate within the range recommended by the RA clinical practice guidelines. Seventy-seven percent of HD and 78% of PD patients had adjusted calcium between 2.2-2.5 mmol/L. Fifty-eight percent of HD and 65% of PD patients had parathyroid hormone between 16-72 pmol/L. Fifty-nine percent of HD and 80% of PD patients achieved the audit measure for bicarbonate. There was significant inter-centre variation for all variables studied. The UKRR consistently demonstrates significant inter-centre variation in achievement of biochemical clinical audit measures. Understanding the causes of this variation is an important part of improving the care of dialysis patients in the UK.

Synchrony in hunting bags: reaction on climatic and human induced changes?

PubMed

Hagen, Robert; Heurich, Marco; Kröschel, Max; Herdtfelder, Micha

2014-01-15

Human induced land use changes negatively impact the viability of many wildlife species through habitat modifications and mortality, while some species seem to benefit from it. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), a wide spread ungulate increased both its abundance and range throughout Europe. This pattern is also reflected in the increasing hunting bags over the last 40 years. Such a development raises questions about the relationship between human hunting and population dynamics and, in particular, about the potential of human hunting to control related populations. We analysed and reconstructed annual hunting bags of roe deer for three federal states of northern Germany, Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Mecklenburg West Pomerania for the years 1972 to 2011. Since 1992 the hunting bags from these three states are significantly higher than those reported for the years 1972-1991. Our reconstruction takes into consideration effects of climate variability, expressed by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and impacts from rapeseed and wheat cultivation. We found that severe winters, which are indicated by negative values of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the months December-March, directly, or with a time lag of two years affect the number of deer shot. In contrast, an increase in the area used for rapeseed cultivation coincides with higher numbers of roe deer shot, with respect to the overall mean value. Consequently, we recommend that wildlife management addresses changes in large scale processes including land use pattern and climate variability. © 2013.

CMIP5 land surface models systematically underestimate inter-annual variability of net ecosystem exchange in semi-arid southwestern North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacBean, N.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Vuichard, N.; Hudson, A.; Barnes, M.; Fox, A. M.; Smith, W. K.; Peylin, P. P.; Maignan, F.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

Recent studies based on analysis of atmospheric CO2 inversions, satellite data and terrestrial biosphere model simulations have suggested that semi-arid ecosystems play a dominant role in the interannual variability and long-term trend in the global carbon sink. These studies have largely cited the response of vegetation activity to changing moisture availability as the primary mechanism of variability. However, some land surface models (LSMs) used in these studies have performed poorly in comparison to satellite-based observations of vegetation dynamics in semi-arid regions. Further analysis is therefore needed to ensure semi-arid carbon cycle processes are well represented in global scale LSMs before we can fully establish their contribution to the global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) simulated by CMIP5 land surface models using observations from 20 Ameriflux sites across semi-arid southwestern North America. We found that CMIP5 models systematically underestimate the magnitude and sign of NEE inter-annual variability; therefore, the true role of semi-arid regions in the global carbon cycle may be even more important than previously thought. To diagnose the factors responsible for this bias, we used the ORCHIDEE LSM to test different climate forcing data, prescribed vegetation fractions and model structures. Climate and prescribed vegetation do contribute to uncertainty in annual NEE simulations, but the bias is primarily caused by incorrect timing and magnitude of peak gross carbon fluxes. Modifications to the hydrology scheme improved simulations of soil moisture in comparison to data. This in turn improved the seasonal cycle of carbon uptake due to a more realistic limitation on photosynthesis during water stress. However, the peak fluxes are still too low, and phenology is poorly represented for desert shrubs and grasses. We provide suggestions on model developments needed to tackle these issues in the future.

Diverse multi-decadal changes in streamflow within a rapidly urbanizing region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diem, Jeremy E.; Hill, T. Chee; Milligan, Richard A.

2018-01-01

The impact of urbanization on streamflow depends on a variety of factors (e.g., climate, initial land cover, inter-basin transfers, water withdrawals, wastewater effluent, etc.). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in streamflow from 1986 to 2015 in a range of watersheds within the rapidly urbanizing Atlanta, GA metropolitan area. This study compares eight watersheds over three decades, while minimizing the influence of inter-annual precipitation variability. Population and land-cover data were used to analyze changes over approximately twenty years within the watersheds. Precipitation totals for the watersheds were estimated using precipitation totals at nearby weather stations. Multiple streamflow variables, such as annual streamflow, frequencies of high-flow days (HFDs), flashiness, and precipitation-adjusted streamflow, for the eight streams were calculated using daily streamflow data. Variables were tested for significant trends from 1986 to 2015 and significant differences between 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. Flashiness increased for all streams without municipal water withdrawals, and the four watersheds with the largest increase in developed land had significant increases in flashiness. Significant positive trends in precipitation-adjusted mean annual streamflow and HFDs occurred for the two watersheds (Big Creek and Suwanee Creek) that experienced the largest increases in development, and these were the only watersheds that went from majority forest land in 1986 to majority developed land in 2015. With a disproportionate increase in HFD occurrence during summer, Big Creek and Suwannee Creek also had a reduction in intra-annual variability of HFD occurrence. Watersheds that were already substantially developed at the beginning of the period and did not have wastewater discharge had declining streamflow. The most urbanized watershed (Peachtree Creek) had a significant decrease in streamflow, and a possible cause of the decrease was increasing groundwater infiltration into sewers. The impacts of urbanization on streamflow within the metropolitan area have undoubtedly been felt by a wide of range of communities.

Identification of "ever-cropped" land (1984-2010) using Landsat annual maximum NDVI image composites: Southwestern Kansas case study.

PubMed

Maxwell, Susan K; Sylvester, Kenneth M

2012-06-01

A time series of 230 intra- and inter-annual Landsat Thematic Mapper images was used to identify land that was ever cropped during the years 1984 through 2010 for a five county region in southwestern Kansas. Annual maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image composites (NDVI(ann-max)) were used to evaluate the inter-annual dynamics of cropped and non-cropped land. Three feature images were derived from the 27-year NDVI(ann-max) image time series and used in the classification: 1) maximum NDVI value that occurred over the entire 27 year time span (NDVI(max)), 2) standard deviation of the annual maximum NDVI values for all years (NDVI(sd)), and 3) standard deviation of the annual maximum NDVI values for years 1984-1986 (NDVI(sd84-86)) to improve Conservation Reserve Program land discrimination.Results of the classification were compared to three reference data sets: County-level USDA Census records (1982-2007) and two digital land cover maps (Kansas 2005 and USGS Trends Program maps (1986-2000)). Area of ever-cropped land for the five counties was on average 11.8 % higher than the area estimated from Census records. Overall agreement between the ever-cropped land map and the 2005 Kansas map was 91.9% and 97.2% for the Trends maps. Converting the intra-annual Landsat data set to a single annual maximum NDVI image composite considerably reduced the data set size, eliminated clouds and cloud-shadow affects, yet maintained information important for discriminating cropped land. Our results suggest that Landsat annual maximum NDVI image composites will be useful for characterizing land use and land cover change for many applications.

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Snow, Plant and Streamflow Dynamics in Headwater Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wainwright, H. M.; Sarah, T.; Siirila-Woodburn, E. R.; Newcomer, M. E.; Williams, K. H.; Hubbard, S. S.; Enquist, B. J.; Steltzer, H.; Carroll, R. W. H.

2017-12-01

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Snow, Plant and Streamflow Dynamics in Headwater Catchments Snow-dominated headwater catchments are critical for water resource throughout the world; particularly in Western US. Under climate change, temperature increases are expected to be amplified in mountainous regions. We use a data-driven approach to better understand the coupling among inter-annual variability in temperature, snow and plant community dynamics and stream discharge. We apply data mining methods (e.g., principal component analysis, random forest) to historical spatiotemporal datasets, including the SNOTEL data, Landsat-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and airborne LiDAR-based snow distribution. Although both snow distribution and NDVI are extremely heterogeneous spatially, the inter-annual variability and temporal responses are spatially consistent, providing an opportunity to quantify the effect of temperature in the catchment-scale. We demonstrate our approach in the East River Watershed of the Upper Colorado River Basin, including Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, where the changes in plant communities and their dynamics have been extensively documented. Results indicate that temperature - particularly spring temperature - has a significant control not only on the timing of snowmelt, plant NDVI and peak flow but also on the magnitude of peak NDVI, peak flow and annual discharge. Monthly temperature in spring explains the variability of snowmelt by the equivalent standard deviation of 3.4-4.4 days, and total discharge by 10-11%. In addition, the high correlation among June temperature, peak NDVI and annual discharge suggests a primary role of spring evapotranspiration on plant community phenology, productivity, and streamflow volume. On the other hand, summer monsoon precipitation does not contribute significantly to annual discharge, further emphasizing the importance of snowmelt. This approach is mostly based on a set of datasets typically available throughout the US, providing a powerful approach to link remote sensing techniques with long-term monitoring of temperature, snowfall, plant, and streamflow dynamics.

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

Dissolved organic nitrogen dynamics in the North Sea: A time series analysis (1995-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Engeland, T.; Soetaert, K.; Knuijt, A.; Laane, R. W. P. M.; Middelburg, J. J.

2010-09-01

Dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) dynamics in the North Sea was explored by means of long-term time series of nitrogen parameters from the Dutch national monitoring program. Generally, the data quality was good with little missing data points. Different imputation methods were used to verify the robustness of the patterns against these missing data. No long-term trends in DON concentrations were found over the sampling period (1995-2005). Inter-annual variability in the different time series showed both common and station-specific behavior. The stations could be divided into two regions, based on absolute concentrations and the dominant times scales of variability. Average DON concentrations were 11 μmol l -1 in the coastal region and 5 μmol l -1 in the open sea. Organic fractions of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) averaged 38 and 71% in the coastal zone and open sea, respectively, but increased over time due to decreasing dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations. In both regions intra-annual variability dominated over inter-annual variability, but DON variation in the open sea was markedly shifted towards shorter time scales relative to coastal stations. In the coastal zone a consistent seasonal DON cycle existed with high values in spring-summer and low values in autumn-winter. In the open sea seasonality was weak. A marked shift in the seasonality was found at the Dogger Bank, with DON accumulation towards summer and low values in winter prior to 1999, and accumulation in spring and decline throughout summer after 1999. This study clearly shows that DON is a dynamic actor in the North Sea and should be monitored systematically to enable us to understand fully the functioning of this ecosystem.

Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Haikun; Wu, Liguang; Raga, G. B.

2018-02-01

This study documents the inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between the TC frequency (TCF) and the local sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1979-2014. An abrupt shift of the lagged relationship between them is observed to occur in 1998. Before the shift (1979-1997), a moderately positive correlation (0.35) between previous-year local SST and TCF is found, while a significantly negative correlation (- 0.71) is found since the shift (1998-2014). The inter-decadal change of the lagged relationship between TCF and local SST over the WNP is also accompanied by an inter-decadal change in the lagged inter-annual relationship between large-scale factors affecting TCs and local SST over the WNP. During 1998-2014, the previous-year local SST shows a significant negative correlation with the mid-level moisture and a significant positive correlation with the vertical wind shear over the main development region of WNP TC genesis. Almost opposite relationships are seen during 1979-1997, with a smaller magnitude of the correlation coefficients. These changes are consistent with the changes of the lagged inter-annual relationship between upper- and lower-level winds and local SST over the WNP. Analyses further suggests that the inter-decadal shift of the lagged inter-annual relationship between WNP TCF and local SST may be closely linked to the inter-decadal change of inter-annual SST transition over the tropical central-eastern Pacific associated with the climate regime shift in the late 1990s. Details on the underlying physical process need further investigation using observations and simulations.

Seasonal precipitation forecasting for the Melbourne region using a Self-Organizing Maps approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pidoto, Ross; Wallner, Markus; Haberlandt, Uwe

2017-04-01

The Melbourne region experiences highly variable inter-annual rainfall. For close to a decade during the 2000s, below average rainfall seriously affected the environment, water supplies and agriculture. A seasonal rainfall forecasting model for the Melbourne region based on the novel approach of a Self-Organizing Map has been developed and tested for its prediction performance. Predictor variables at varying lead times were first assessed for inclusion within the model by calculating their importance via Random Forests. Predictor variables tested include the climate indices SOI, DMI and N3.4, in addition to gridded global sea surface temperature data. Five forecasting models were developed: an annual model and four seasonal models, each individually optimized for performance through Pearson's correlation r and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The annual model showed a prediction performance of r = 0.54 and NSE = 0.14. The best seasonal model was for spring, with r = 0.61 and NSE = 0.31. Autumn was the worst performing seasonal model. The sea surface temperature data contributed fewer predictor variables compared to climate indices. Most predictor variables were supplied at a minimum lead, however some predictors were found at lead times of up to a year.

Inter-annual variability in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions due to temperature anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bréon, F.-M.; Boucher, O.; Brender, P.

2017-07-01

It is well known that short-term (i.e. interannual) variations in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are closely related to the evolution of the national economies. Nevertheless, a fraction of the CO2 emissions are linked to domestic and business heating and cooling, which can be expected to be related to the meteorology, independently of the economy. Here, we analyse whether the signature of the inter-annual temperature anomalies is discernible in the time series of CO2 emissions at the country scale. Our analysis shows that, for many countries, there is a clear positive correlation between a heating-degree-person index and the component of the CO2 emissions that is not explained by the economy as quantified by the gross domestic product (GDP). Similarly, several countries show a positive correlation between a cooling-degree-person (CDP) index and CO2 emissions. The slope of the linear relationship for heating is on the order of 0.5-1 kg CO2 (degree-day-person)-1 but with significant country-to-country variations. A similar relationship for cooling shows even greater diversity. We further show that the inter-annual climate anomalies have a small but significant impact on the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions, both at the national and global scale. Such a meteorological effect was a significant contribution to the rather small and unexpected global emission growth rate in 2014 while its contribution to the near zero emission growth in 2015 was insignificant.

Variability comparison of simultaneous brain near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and functional MRI (fMRI) during visual stimulation

PubMed Central

Minati, Ludovico; Visani, Elisa; Dowell, Nick G; Medford, Nick; Critchley, Hugo D

2011-01-01

Brain near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is emerging as a potential alternative to functional MRI (fMRI). To date, no study has explicitly compared the two techniques in terms of measurement variability, a key parameter dictating attainable statistical power. Here, NIRS and fMRI were simultaneously recorded during event-related visual stimulation. Inter-subject coefficients of variation (CVs) for peak response amplitude were considerably larger for NIRS than fMRI, but inter-subject CVs for response latency and intra-subject CVs for response amplitude were overall comparable. Our results may represent an optimistic estimate of the CVs of NIRS measurements, as optode positioning was guided by structural MRI, which is normally unavailable. We conclude that fMRI may be preferable to NIRS for group comparisons, but NIRS is equally powerful when comparing conditions within participants. The discrepancy between inter- and intra-subject CVs is likely related to variability in head anatomy and tissue properties which may be better accounted for by emerging NIRS technology. PMID:21780948

Federal fire managers' perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources

Treesearch

Crystal S. Stonesifer; David E. Calkin; Michael S. Hand

2017-01-01

Wildland firefighting in the United States is a complex and costly enterprise. While there are strong seasonal signatures for fire occurrence in specific regions of the United States, spatiotemporal occurrence of wildfire activity can have high inter-annual variability. Suppression resources come from a variety of jurisdictions and provide a wide range of skills,...

Spatial and Temporal Means and Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Climate Indicators from Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, G.; Meier, W.; Bliss, A. C.; Steele, M.; Dickinson, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice has been undergoing rapid and accelerated loss since satellite-based measurements became available in late 1970s, especially the summer ice coverage. For the Arctic as a whole, the long-term trend for the annual sea ice extent (SIE) minimum is about -13.5±2.93 % per decade change relative to the 1979-2015 climate average, while the trends of the annual SIE minimum for the local regions can range from 0 to up to -42 % per decade. This presentation aims to examine and baseline spatial and temporal means and variability of Arctic sea ice climate indicators, such as the annual SIE minimum and maximum, snow/ice melt onset, etc., from a consistent, inter-calibrated, long-term time series of remote sensing sea ice data for understanding regional vulnerability and monitoring ice state for climate adaptation and risk mitigation.

Atmospheric forcing and Sea Surface Temperature response in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran Sea system in a 20 years simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutov, D.; Peliz, A.

2012-04-01

In the frame of MedEX ("Inter-basin exchange in the changing Mediterranean Sea") Project a 20 years (1989-2008) simulation at 2km resolution covering Gulf of Cadiz and Alboran Sea, forced by 9 km winds (WRF downscaling of ERA-Interim reanalysis), is analyzed and compared with observations. Statistical methods, EOF techniques and two harmonic (including annual and semi-annual frequencies) data fit were performed for the analysis. Modeled SST fields are also compared with long-term (1996-2008) in-situ buoy observations provided by Puertos del Estado (Spain) and satellite derived Pathfinder SST database. Model SSTs generally follow observations data at annual and inter-annual scales with a global error not exceeding 0.17°C (model warmer than SST). No significant warming tendency was observed in both basins during the 20 years and the Interanual variability dominates, with the series showing a cooling period from 1991 to 1993 followed by a warming period started from 1994. In particular we show that SST cooling observed in the early 1990's in the Gulf of Cadiz - Alboran system is associated with the 1991 catastrophic eruption of Pinatubo volcano (Philippines).

A comparison of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon derived from two gridded data sets and a national rain gauge network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Robin T.; Bulhoes Mendes, Carlos Andre; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2010-07-01

Two issues of particular importance for the Amazon watershed are: whether annual maxima obtained from reanalysis and raingauge records agree well enough for the former to be useful in extending records of the latter; and whether reported trends in Amazon annual rainfall are reflected in the behavior of annual extremes in precipitation estimated from reanalyses and raingauge records. To explore these issues, three sets of daily precipitation data (1979-2001) from the Brazilian Amazon were analyzed (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, and records from the raingauge network of the Brazilian water resources agency - ANA), using the following variables: (1) mean annual maximum precipitation totals, accumulated over one, two, three and five days; (2) linear trends in these variables; (3) mean length of longest within-year "dry" spell; (4) linear trends in these variables. Comparisons between variables obtained from all three data sources showed that reanalyses underestimated time-trends and mean annual maximum precipitation (over durations of one to five days), and the correlations between reanalysis and spatially-interpolated raingauge estimates were small for these two variables. Both reanalyses over-estimated mean lengths of dry period relative to the mean length recorded by the raingauge network. Correlations between the trends calculated from all three data sources were small. Time-trends averaged over the reanalysis grid-squares, and spatially-interpolated time trends from raingauge data, were all clustered around zero. In conclusion, although the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 gridded data-sets may be valuable for studies of inter-annual variability in precipitation totals, they were found to be inappropriate for analysis of precipitation extremes.

The response of the southwest Western Australian wave climate to Indian Ocean climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hetzel, Yasha; Wijeratne, E. M. S.

2018-03-01

Knowledge of regional wave climates is critical for coastal planning, management, and protection. In order to develop a regional wave climate, it is important to understand the atmospheric systems responsible for wave generation. This study examines the variability of the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) shelf and nearshore wind wave climate and its relationship to southern hemisphere climate variability represented by various atmospheric indices: the southern oscillation index (SOI), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the latitudinal position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge (STRP), and the corresponding intensity of the subtropical ridge (STRI). A 21-year wave hindcast (1994-2014) of the SWWA continental shelf was created using the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), to analyse the seasonal and inter-annual wave climate variability and its relationship to the atmospheric regime. Strong relationships between wave heights and the STRP and the STRI, a moderate correlation between the wave climate and the SAM, and no significant correlation between SOI, DMI, and IOSD and the wave climate were found. Strong spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability, as well as seasonal longer-term trends in the mean wave climate were studied and linked to the latitudinal changes in the subtropical high-pressure ridge and the Southern Ocean storm belt. As the Southern Ocean storm belt and the subtropical high-pressure ridge shifted southward (northward) wave heights on the SWWA shelf region decreased (increased). The wave height anomalies appear to be driven by the same atmospheric conditions that influence rainfall variability in SWWA.

The spatial-temporal dynamics of open surface water bodies in CONUS during 1984-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Z.; Xiao, X.; Dong, J.; Qin, Y.; Doughty, R.; Menarguez, M.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

Open surface water bodies provided 80% of the total water withdrawals in the Contiguous United States (CONUS) in 1985-2010. The inter-annual variability and changing trends of surface water body areas have various impacts on the human society and ecosystems. This study made use of all Landsat 5, 7, and 8 surface reflectance archives ( 370,000 images) during 1984-2016 and a water index- and pixel-based approach to detect and map open surface water bodies in the cloud-based platform of Google Earth Engine. The year-long water body area and annual average water body area were calculated for each of the last 33 years and their inter-annual variations during 1984-2016 were analyzed through anomaly analysis while their changing trends were analyzed through linear regressions. The national annual average water body areas varied from 265,000 to 281,000 km2 during 1984-2016, which is 3% below to 3% above the mean value 274,000 km2. In state level, significant decreasing trends were found in both year-long and annual average water body areas in some states of dry climates in west and southwest U.S., including Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. In comparison, significant increasing trends were found in some states of wet climates in the southeast and north U.S., including Indiana, Ohio, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and South Dakota. Open surface water body areas in CONUS decreased in relatively dry areas but increased in relatively wet areas. The relationships between open surface water body area variability and climate factors (precipitation, temperature) and human impacts (water exploitation) were also analyzed.

Streamflow Impacts of Biofuel Policy-Driven Landscape Change

PubMed Central

Khanal, Sami; Anex, Robert P.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Herzmann, Daryl E.

2014-01-01

Likely changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979–2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity. PMID:25289698

Wave climate simulation for southern region of the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzaei, Ali; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Mustapha, Muzneena Ahmad; Husain, Mohd Lokman; Akhir, Mohd Fadzil

2013-08-01

This study investigates long-term variability and wave characteristic trends in the southern region of the South China Sea (SCS). We implemented the state-of-the art WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model to simulate a 31-year wave hindcast. The simulation results were used to assess the inter-annual variability and long-term changes in the SCS wave climate for the period 1979 to 2009. The model was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis winds and validated against altimeter data and limited available measurements from an Acoustic Wave and Current recorder located offshore of Terengganu, Malaysia. The mean annual significant wave height and peak wave period indicate the occurrence of higher wave heights and wave periods in the central SCS and lower in the Sunda shelf region. Consistent with wind patterns, the wave direction also shows southeasterly (northwesterly) waves during the summer (winter) monsoon. This detailed hindcast demonstrates strong inter-annual variability of wave heights, especially during the winter months in the SCS. Significant wave height correlated negatively with Niño3.4 index during winter, spring and autumn seasons but became positive in the summer monsoon. Such correlations correspond well with surface wind anomalies over the SCS during El Nino events. During El Niño Modoki, the summer time positive correlation extends northeastwards to cover the entire domain. Although significant positive trends were found at 95 % confidence levels during May, July and September, there is significant negative trend in December covering the Sunda shelf region. However, the trend appears to be largely influenced by large El Niño signals.

The Pulse of the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, R. G.; Moura, J. M. S.; Mitsuya, M.; Peucker-Ehrenbrink, B.; Holmes, R. M.; Galy, V.; Drake, T.

2017-12-01

Rivers integrate over a fixed and definable area (the watershed), with their discharge and chemistry at any given point a function of upstream processes. As a consequence, examination of riverine discharge and chemistry can provide powerful indictors of change within a watershed. To assess the validity of this approach long-term datasets are required from fluvial environments around the globe. The Amazon River delivers one-fifth of the total freshwater discharged to the ocean and so represents a fundamentally important site for examination of long-term major ion, trace element, nutrient, and organic matter (OM) export. Here we describe data from a multi-year, monthly sampling campaign of the Amazon River at Obidos (Para, Brazil). Clear seasonality in all analyte fluxes is apparent and is linked to hydrology, however dissolved OM composition appears dominated by allochthonous sources throughout the year as evidenced by optical parameters indicative of high molecular weight and high relative aromatic content. Annual loads of some analytes for 2011-2013 inclusive varied by up to 50%, highlighting significant variability in flux from year to year that was linked to inter-annual hydrologic shifts (i.e. higher fluxes in wetter years). Finally, encompassing both intra- and inter-annual variability, a robust correlation was observed between chromophoric dissolved OM (CDOM) absorbance and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration highlighting the potential to improve DOC flux estimates at this globally significant site via CDOM measurements from in situ technologies or remote sensing techniques.

Exploring the new long-term (150 years) precipitation dataset in Azores archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Armand; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Kutiel, Haim; Valente, Maria A.; Sigró, Javier

2015-04-01

Within the scope of the two major international projects of long-term reanalysis for the 20th century coordinated by NOAA (Compo et al. 2011) and ECMWF (Hersbach et al. 2013) the IDL Institute from the University of Lisbon has digitized a large number of long-term stations records from Portugal and former Portuguese Colonies (Stickler et al. 2014). Recently we have finished the digitization of all precipitation values from Ponta Delgada (capital of the Azores archipelago) obtaining an uninterrupted precipitation monthly time series since 1864 and additionally an almost complete corresponding daily precipitation series, with the exception of some years (1864/1872; 1878/1879; 1888/1905; 1931; 1936 and 1938) for which only monthly values are available. Here, we present an annually, seasonally and daily resolution study of the rainfall regime in Ponta Delgada for the last 150 years and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influence over this precipitation regime. The distribution of precipitation presents an evident seasonal pattern, with a strong difference between the 'rainy season' (November/March) and the 'dry season' (June/August) with very little rainfall. April/May and September/October correspond to the transitional seasons. The mean annual rainfall in Ponta Delgada is approximately 910 mm and is accumulated (on average) in about 120 rainy days. The precipitation regime in Azores archipelago reveals large inter-annual and intra-annual variability and both have increased considerably in the last decades. The entire studied period (1865-2012) shows an increase in the rainfall conditions between a drier earlier period (1865-1938) and a wetter recent period (1939-2012). At daily resolution, we have used an approach based on different characteristics of rain spells (consecutive days with rainfall accumulation) that has been proved to be satisfactory for the analysis of the different parameters related to the rainfall regime (Kutiel and Trigo, 2014). This approach shows that the increase in precipitation is mainly due to more intense events which are reflected by higher rain spell yields (amount of precipitation) and rain spell intensity (amount of precipitation by day) values in the last decades. On the other hand, despite the fact that one of the most widely used NAO definitions includes sea level pressure from the Ponta Delgada station, its long-term impact on the Azores archipelago climate is not well established yet. Here, we assessed the NAO influence over the precipitation regime according to Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. Results show that the inter-annual variability of precipitation is largely modulated by the NAO mode. Correlation values of r=-0.90, r=-0.79 and r=-0.63 were obtained for years with positive (>1) or negative (

Biology and ecology of Neosho Smallmouth Bass and the genetically distinct Ouachita lineage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brewer, Shannon K.; Long, James M.; Tringali, Michael D.; Long, James M.; Birdsong, Timothy W.; Allen, Michael S.

2015-01-01

We reviewed the published and gray literature associated with Neosho Smallmouth Bass and the genetically-distinct Ouachita lineage. Substantial inter-stream variation appears to occur among these populations, particularly related to age. The Neosho subspecies is more abundant, grows faster, and lives longer than the genetically-distinct Ouachita lineage. Recruitment is highly variable among streams for both populations and appears to be related to some undescribed aspects of hydrology but also likely reflect bias due to sampling gear. Information on annual and seasonal trends is lacking for the Neosho subspecies and the Ouachita lineages, particularly as related to the spawning period. Conservation efforts for these lineages might benefit from agencies partnering to achieve goals that extend beyond a particular agencies responsibilities and state boundaries. Recognition of spatial and temporal considerations, combined with a better understanding of the population dynamics as related to abundance, growth, mortality and reproduction would benefit the creation of more effective conservation and management strategies for genetically-distinct populations of Smallmouth Bass.

How to make a tree ring: Coupling stem water flow and cambial activity in mature Alpine conifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Richard L.; Frank, David C.; Treydte, Kerstin; Steppe, Kathy; Kahmen, Ansgar; Fonti, Patrick

2017-04-01

Inter-annual tree-ring measurements are used to understand tree-growth responses to climatic variability and reconstruct past climate conditions. In parallel, mechanistic models use experimentally defined plant-atmosphere interactions to explain past growth responses and predict future environmental impact on forest productivity. Yet, substantial inconsistencies within mechanistic model ensembles and mismatches with empirical data indicate that significant progress is still needed to understand the processes occurring at an intra-annual resolution that drive annual growth. However, challenges arise due to i) few datasets describing climatic responses of high-resolution physiological processes over longer time-scales, ii) uncertainties on the main mechanistic process limiting radial stem growth and iii) complex interactions between multiple environmental factors which obscure detection of the main stem growth driver, generating a gap between our understanding of intra- and inter-annual growth mechanisms. We attempt to bridge the gap between inter-annual tree-ring width and sub-daily radial stem-growth and provide a mechanistic perspective on how environmental conditions affect physiological processes that shape tree rings in conifers. We combine sub-hourly sap flow and point dendrometer measurements performed on mature Alpine conifers (Larix decidua) into an individual-based mechanistic tree-growth model to simulate sub-hourly cambial activity. The monitored trees are located along a high elevational transect in the Swiss Alps (Lötschental) to analyse the effect of increasing temperature. The model quantifies internal tree hydraulic pathways that regulate the turgidity within the cambial zone and induce cell enlargement for radial growth. The simulations are validated against intra-annual growth patterns derived from xylogenesis data and anatomical analyses. Our efforts advance the process-based understanding of how climate shapes the annual tree-ring structures and could potentially improve our ability to reconstruct the climate of the past and predict future growth under changing climate.

An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taff, L. G.

2010-02-01

The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5-day-planetary-waves in MLT observed by TIMED/SABER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yingying; Li, Huijun; Li, Chongyin; Zhang, Shaodong

2017-04-01

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DWs in 20-110 km, 52°S-52°N, 2002-2016 are studied by using v2.0 TIMED/SABER kinetic temperature data. Firstly, global annual variations of 6.5DW's spectral power and amplitudes are obtained. Strong wave amplitudes emerge in 30°S/N-50°S/N, and peaks in altitude separate in stratosphere (40-50 km), mesosphere (80-90 km) and the lower thermosphere (100-110 km), respectively. Their annual variations are similar in both hemispheres, but different in altitude. In 40-50 km, the annual maximums emerge mostly in winters: Dec.-Jan. in the NH and Jul.-Aug. in the SH. In MLT, annual peaks arise twice in each half of year. In 80-90 km, they're mainly in equinoctial seasons and winters: May, Aug.-Sep. and Jan. in the NH and Feb., Nov. and May in the SH. In 100-110 km, they emerge mainly in equinoctial seasons: Apr.-May and Aug.-Sep. in the NH and Feb.-Mar. and Oct.-Nov. in the SH. Then, inter-annual variations of 6.5DW amplitudes during the 14-year period are studied. Frequency spectra of monthly-mean amplitudes show that, main dynamics in long-term variations of 6.5DWs are AO and SAO in both hemispheres. Besides, QBO are visible in both hemispheres and 4-month period signals are noticed in the NH in MLT. Amplitudes of SAO, AO and QBO are obtained by bandpass filter. Their amplitudes are comparable in stratosphere and mesosphere, and QBO signals are weaker than the others in the LT. Vertical variations both of SAO and AO amplitudes are very stable. AO structures have little inter-annual changes, while inter-annual variations of SAO are significant and are related with 6.5DW. It means that annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DW are mainly controlled by AO and SAO, respectively. Although QBO signals are weaker and their variations are less regular than AO and SAO, their phases seems to relate with inter-annual variations of 6.5DW as well.

Far-field connectivity of the UK's four largest marine protected areas: Four of a kind?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, J.; New, A. L.; Popova, E. E.; Srokosz, M. A.; Yool, A.

2017-05-01

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are established to conserve important ecosystems and protect marine species threatened in the wider ocean. However, even MPAs in remote areas are not wholly isolated from anthropogenic impacts. "Upstream" activities, possibly thousands of kilometers away, can influence MPAs through ocean currents that determine their connectivity. Persistent pollutants, such as plastics, can be transported from neighboring shelf regions to MPAs, or an ecosystem may be affected if larval dispersal is reduced from a seemingly remote upstream area. Thus, improved understanding of exactly where upstream is, and on what timescale it is connected, is important for protecting and monitoring MPAs. Here, we use a high-resolution (1/12°) ocean general circulation model and Lagrangian particle tracking to diagnose the connectivity of four of the UK's largest MPAs: Pitcairn; South Georgia and Sandwich Islands; Ascension; and the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). We introduce the idea of a circulation "connectivity footprint", by which MPAs are connected to upstream areas. Annual connectivity footprints were calculated for the four MPAs, taking into account seasonal and inter-annual variability. These footprints showed that, on annual timescales, Pitcairn was not connected with land, whereas there was increasing connectivity for waters reaching South Georgia, Ascension, and, especially, BIOT. BIOT also had a high degree of both seasonal and inter-annual variability, which drastically changed its footprint, year-to-year. We advocate that such connectivity footprints are an inherent property of all MPAs, and need to be considered when MPAs are first proposed or their viability as refuges evaluated.

Inter-laboratory comparison of the in vivo comet assay including three image analysis systems.

PubMed

Plappert-Helbig, Ulla; Guérard, Melanie

2015-12-01

To compare the extent of potential inter-laboratory variability and the influence of different comet image analysis systems, in vivo comet experiments were conducted using the genotoxicants ethyl methanesulfonate and methyl methanesulfonate. Tissue samples from the same animals were processed and analyzed-including independent slide evaluation by image analysis-in two laboratories with extensive experience in performing the comet assay. The analysis revealed low inter-laboratory experimental variability. Neither the use of different image analysis systems, nor the staining procedure of DNA (propidium iodide vs. SYBR® Gold), considerably impacted the results or sensitivity of the assay. In addition, relatively high stability of the staining intensity of propidium iodide-stained slides was found in slides that were refrigerated for over 3 months. In conclusion, following a thoroughly defined protocol and standardized routine procedures ensures that the comet assay is robust and generates comparable results between different laboratories. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-30

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems Dr. Melvyn A. Shapiro NOAA/Environmental Technology Laboratory...formulation, and numerical prediction of the life cycles of synoptic-scale and mesoscale extratropical weather systems, including the influence of planetary...scale inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability on their evolution. These weather systems include: extratropical oceanic and land-falling cyclones

Shea (Vitellaria paradoxa Gaertn C. F.) fruit yield assessment and management by farm households in the Atacora district of Benin

PubMed Central

Villamor, Grace B.; Nyarko, Benjamin Kofi; Wala, Kperkouma; Akpagana, Koffi

2018-01-01

Vitellaria paradoxa (Gaertn C. F.), or shea tree, remains one of the most valuable trees for farmers in the Atacora district of northern Benin, where rural communities depend on shea products for both food and income. To optimize productivity and management of shea agroforestry systems, or "parklands," accurate and up-to-date data are needed. For this purpose, we monitored120 fruiting shea trees for two years under three land-use scenarios and different soil groups in Atacora, coupled with a farm household survey to elicit information on decision making and management practices. To examine the local pattern of shea tree productivity and relationships between morphological factors and yields, we used a randomized branch sampling method and applied a regression analysis to build a shea yield model based on dendrometric, soil and land-use variables. We also compared potential shea yields based on farm household socio-economic characteristics and management practices derived from the survey data. Soil and land-use variables were the most important determinants of shea fruit yield. In terms of land use, shea trees growing on farmland plots exhibited the highest yields (i.e., fruit quantity and mass) while trees growing on Lixisols performed better than those of the other soil group. Contrary to our expectations, dendrometric parameters had weak relationships with fruit yield regardless of land-use and soil group. There is an inter-annual variability in fruit yield in both soil groups and land-use type. In addition to observed inter-annual yield variability, there was a high degree of variability in production among individual shea trees. Furthermore, household socioeconomic characteristics such as road accessibility, landholding size, and gross annual income influence shea fruit yield. The use of fallow areas is an important land management practice in the study area that influences both conservation and shea yield. PMID:29346406

Shea (Vitellaria paradoxa Gaertn C. F.) fruit yield assessment and management by farm households in the Atacora district of Benin.

PubMed

Aleza, Koutchoukalo; Villamor, Grace B; Nyarko, Benjamin Kofi; Wala, Kperkouma; Akpagana, Koffi

2018-01-01

Vitellaria paradoxa (Gaertn C. F.), or shea tree, remains one of the most valuable trees for farmers in the Atacora district of northern Benin, where rural communities depend on shea products for both food and income. To optimize productivity and management of shea agroforestry systems, or "parklands," accurate and up-to-date data are needed. For this purpose, we monitored120 fruiting shea trees for two years under three land-use scenarios and different soil groups in Atacora, coupled with a farm household survey to elicit information on decision making and management practices. To examine the local pattern of shea tree productivity and relationships between morphological factors and yields, we used a randomized branch sampling method and applied a regression analysis to build a shea yield model based on dendrometric, soil and land-use variables. We also compared potential shea yields based on farm household socio-economic characteristics and management practices derived from the survey data. Soil and land-use variables were the most important determinants of shea fruit yield. In terms of land use, shea trees growing on farmland plots exhibited the highest yields (i.e., fruit quantity and mass) while trees growing on Lixisols performed better than those of the other soil group. Contrary to our expectations, dendrometric parameters had weak relationships with fruit yield regardless of land-use and soil group. There is an inter-annual variability in fruit yield in both soil groups and land-use type. In addition to observed inter-annual yield variability, there was a high degree of variability in production among individual shea trees. Furthermore, household socioeconomic characteristics such as road accessibility, landholding size, and gross annual income influence shea fruit yield. The use of fallow areas is an important land management practice in the study area that influences both conservation and shea yield.

Inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic from semi-arid part of Deccan Volcanic Province, India: climatic and hydrogeochemical perspectives.

PubMed

Kale, Sanjay S; Ghole, Vikram Shantaram; Pawar, N J; Jagtap, Deepak V

2014-01-01

Semi-arid Karha basin from Deccan Volcanic Province, India was investigated for inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic. The number of reported urolith patient, weather station data and groundwater quality results was used to assess impact of geoenvironment on urolithiasis. Data of 7081 urolith patient were processed for epidemiological study. Gender class, age group, year-wise cases and urolith type were studied in epidemiology. Rainfall, temperature, pan evaporation and sunshine hours were used to correlate urolithiasis. Further, average values of groundwater parameters were correlated with the number of urolith episodes. A total of 52 urolith samples were collected from hospitals and analysed using FTIR technique to identify dominant urolith type in study area. Result shows that male population is more prone, age group of 20-40 is more susceptible and calcium oxalate uroliths are dominant in study area. Year-wise distribution revealed that there is steady increase in urolithiasis with inflation in drought years. In climatic parameters, hot days are significantly correlated with urolithiasis. In groundwater quality, EC, Na and F are convincingly correlated with urolith patients, which concludes the strong relation between geo-environment and urolithiasis.

Flexible Strategies for Coping with Rainfall Variability: Seasonal Adjustments in Cropped Area in the Ganges Basin

PubMed Central

Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul E. V.; van Ierland, Ekko C.; Kabat, Pavel; Hellegers, Petra J. G. J.

2016-01-01

One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for coping with rainfall variability. Such adjustments are not incorporated in hydro-meteorological crop models commonly used for food security analyses. Our paper contributes to the literature by making a comprehensive model assessment of inter-annual variability in crop production, including both variations in crop yield and cropped area. The Ganges basin is used as a case study. First, we assessed the contribution of cropped area variability to overall variability in rice and wheat production by applying hierarchical partitioning on time-series of agricultural statistics. We then introduced cropped area as an endogenous decision variable in a hydro-economic optimization model (WaterWise), coupled to a hydrology-vegetation model (LPJmL), and analyzed to what extent its performance in the estimation of inter-annual variability in crop production improved. From the statistics, we found that in the period 1999–2009 seasonal adjustment in cropped area can explain almost 50% of variability in wheat production and 40% of variability in rice production in the Indian part of the Ganges basin. Our improved model was well capable of mimicking existing variability at different spatial aggregation levels, especially for wheat. The value of flexibility, i.e. the foregone costs of choosing not to crop in years when water is scarce, was quantified at 4% of gross margin of wheat in the Indian part of the Ganges basin and as high as 34% of gross margin of wheat in the drought-prone state of Rajasthan. We argue that flexibility in land use is an important coping strategy to rainfall variability in water stressed regions. PMID:26934389

Snow-atmosphere coupling and its impact on temperature variability and extremes over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diro, G. T.; Sushama, L.; Huziy, O.

2018-04-01

The impact of snow-atmosphere coupling on climate variability and extremes over North America is investigated using modeling experiments with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this end, two CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981-2010 period are performed, where snow cover and depth are prescribed (uncoupled) in one simulation while they evolve interactively (coupled) during model integration in the second one. Results indicate systematic influence of snow cover and snow depth variability on the inter-annual variability of soil and air temperatures during winter and spring seasons. Inter-annual variability of air temperature is larger in the coupled simulation, with snow cover and depth variability accounting for 40-60% of winter temperature variability over the Mid-west, Northern Great Plains and over the Canadian Prairies. The contribution of snow variability reaches even more than 70% during spring and the regions of high snow-temperature coupling extend north of the boreal forests. The dominant process contributing to the snow-atmosphere coupling is the albedo effect in winter, while the hydrological effect controls the coupling in spring. Snow cover/depth variability at different locations is also found to affect extremes. For instance, variability of cold-spell characteristics is sensitive to snow cover/depth variation over the Mid-west and Northern Great Plains, whereas, warm-spell variability is sensitive to snow variation primarily in regions with climatologically extensive snow cover such as northeast Canada and the Rockies. Furthermore, snow-atmosphere interactions appear to have contributed to enhancing the number of cold spell days during the 2002 spring, which is the coldest recorded during the study period, by over 50%, over western North America. Additional results also provide useful information on the importance of the interactions of snow with large-scale mode of variability in modulating temperature extreme characteristics.

Inter- annual variability of water vapor over an equatorial coastal station using Microwave Radiometer observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renju, Ramachandran Pillai; Uma, K. N.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Mathew, Nizy; Raju C, Suresh

The south-western region of the Indian peninsula is the gateway of Indian summer monsoon. This region experiences continuous monsoon rain for a longer period of about six months from June to November. The amount of water vapor variability is one of the important parameters to study the onset, active and break phases of the monsoon. Keeping this in view, a multi-frequency Microwave Radiometer Profiler (MRP) has been made operational for continuous measurements of water vapor over an equatorial coastal station Thiruvananthapuram (8.5(°) N, 76.9(°) E) since April 2010. The MRP estimated precipitable water vapor (PWV) for different seasons including monsoon periods have been evaluated by comparing with the collocated GPS derived water vapor and radiosonde measurements. The diurnal, seasonal and inter annual variation of water vapor has been studied for the last four years (2010-2013) over this station. The significant diurnal variability of water vapor is found only during the winter and pre-monsoon periods (Dec -April). The vertical distribution of water vapour is studied in order to understand its variability especially during the onset of monsoon. During the building up of south-west monsoon, the specific humidity increases to ˜ 10g/kg in the altitude range of 4-6 km and consistently maintained it throughout the active spells and reduces to below 2g/kg during break spells of monsoon. The instrument details and the results will be presented.

Seasonal and inter-annual variability in velocity and frontal position of Siachen Glacier (Eastern Karakorum) using multi-satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usman, M.; Furuya, M.; Sakakibara, D.; Abe, T.

2017-12-01

The anomalous behavior of Karakorum glaciers is a hot topic of discussion in the scientific community. Siachen Glacier is one of the longest glaciers ( 75km) in Karakorum Range. This glacier is supposed to be a surge type but so far no studies have confirmed this claim. Detailed velocity mapping of this glacier can possibly provide some clues about intra/inter-annual changes in velocity and observed terminus. Using L-band SAR data of ALOS-1/2, we applied the feature tracking technique (search patch of 128x128 pixels (range x azimuth) , sampling interval of 12x36 pixels) to derive velocity changes; we used GAMMA software. The velocity was calculated by following the parallel flow assumption. To calculate the local topographic gradient unit vector, we used ASTER-GDEM. We also used optical images acquired by Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) to derive surface velocity. The algorithm we used is Cross-Correlation in Frequency domain on Orientation images (CCF-O). The velocity was finally calculated by setting a flow line and averaging over the area of 200x200m2. The results indicate seasonal speed up signals that modulate inter-annually from 1999 to 2011, with slight or no change in the observed frontal position. However, in ALOS-2 data, the `observed terminus' seems to have been advancing.

Stability measures in arid ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nosshi, M. I.; Brunsell, N. A.; Koerner, S.

2015-12-01

Stability, the capacity of ecosystems to persist in the face of change, has proven its relevance as a fundamental component of ecological theory. Here, we would like to explore meaningful and quantifiable metrics to define stability, with a focus on highly variable arid and semi-arid savanna ecosystems. Recognizing the importance of a characteristic timescale to any definition of stability, our metrics will be focused scales from annual to multi-annual, capturing different aspects of stability. Our three measures of stability, in increasing order of temporal scale, are: (1) Ecosystem resistance, quantified as the degree to which the system maintains its mean state in response to a perturbation (drought), based on inter-annual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). (2) An optimization approach, relevant to arid systems with pulse dynamics, that models vegetation structure and function based on a trade off between the ability to respond to resource availability and avoid stress. (3) Community resilience, measured as species turnover rate (β diversity). Understanding the nature of stability in structurally-diverse arid ecosystems, which are highly variable, yields theoretical insight which has practical implications.

Does the hemispheric energy balance set the mean location of ITCZ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakuba, Maria Z.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Lee, Tong; Rapp, Anita D.; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.

2017-04-01

The Earth's energy balance has been studied for many decades and yet a number of challenges remain in quantifying it globally and in understanding its behavior regionally. Recent studies combine the total and atmospheric heat budgets derived from satellite-based TOA irradiances and atmospheric reanalysis, respectively, to infer the hemispheric surface heat budget as their residual. Here, we propose an approach that takes the perspective of the ocean, deriving the multi-annual surface net heat flux as the residual of the hemispheric ocean heat storage (OHS) and the cross-equatorial ocean heat transport (COHT). The latter is taken from ocean reanalysis (i.e. ECCOv4 and ORA-S4), while the OHS is derived from in-situ temperature profiles covering the ARGO period 2005-2015. Notable features of the hemispheric energy balance established is the dominance of the Southern hemispheric OHS (0.9 Wm-2) and the slight inter-hemispheric energy imbalance that yields a net cross-equatorial heat transport from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. This is achieved by the oceans transporting about 0.2-0.4 PW northward across the equator, accompanied by a slight southward transport of heat by the atmosphere (0.1-0.2 PW). The main features of the hemispheric energy balance portrayed here are largely in line with earlier estimates and represent the energetic framework within which the tropical circulation acts to distribute heat across the equator. In present-day conditions, the ITCZ is located slightly North of the equator at about 7 N in the multi-annual mean, indicating that the southern Hadley Cell fluxes heat across the equator towards the Southern hemisphere. It has been proposed in recent studies that the global mean northward COHT plays a role in setting the ITCZ location, a relationship that we examine by analysis of an observation-based (GPCP, TRMM, ERA-I) dataset of ITCZ location and ocean heat transport from reanalysis. Additionally, we examine the co-variability of ITCZ location and other energy budget components as well to elucidate on the energetic drivers of tropical large-scale circulation. We find the direction of COHT and ITCZ location in the Indo-Pacific to be largely anti-correlated, both showing significant inter-annual variability that is likely driven by SST variability linked to ENSO. As expected, the Atlantic sets the global mean northward COHT and shows much less inter-annual variability. From this alone, there is evidence that, at least locally, the COHT is not the only driver of ITCZ location in the Pacific.

Wind-driven Ocean Circulation and the Spatial-temporal Variability of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, North Eastern Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapa, C.; Beier, E.; Durazo, R.; Martin Hernandez-Ayon, J. M.; Alin, S. R.; Lopez-Perez, A.

2016-12-01

The relationship between the surface enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and wind variability and circulation in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (GT) was examined from satellite images and in situ data from three cruises (June 2010; April and November 2013). Monthly mean wind climatologies (and derived variables), sea surface temperature and sea surface height anomaly fields were analyzed in the GT and part of the NETP. Signal decomposition according to circulation scales (seasonal, inter-annual, mesoscale) was performed using harmonic analysis for the seasonal components, and empirical orthogonal functions for the residuals, applied to satellite sea-level anomaly data. The results show that wind is the main driving force of the variability in the GT. Mesoscale is the variable with the highest percent of local variance (25-75%), due mainly to mesoscale eddies, followed by seasonality (20-55%), and finally the inter-annual signal (10-30%), dominated by ENSO. Mesoscale and seasonality prevailed during the samplings. The changes in circulation led to variations in the concentration of surface DIC ranging between 100 and 300 µmol kg-1 (436 µatm) due to Ekman pumping. The largest enrichment occurred in November 2013 after a strong northerly wind event. However, the predominance of mesoscale events suggests that changes in dissolved inorganic carbon resulting from mesoscale- derived Ekman pumping may become important in the long term and with a larger spatial and temporal coverage. The results suggest that the seasonal cycle of dissolved inorganic carbon may be linked to wind seasonality.

Understanding the Hydrology of Cholera in South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

2007-12-01

Cholera is an acute waterborne illness caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. The disease remains a major public health issue in several regions of the developing world, mainly in coastal areas around the tropics. Cholera incidences have been historically linked to climate variables and more recently with El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The occurrence of cholera shows bi-annual seasonal peaks and strong inter-annual variability in the Ganges basin region of South Asia. However, the role of hydrologic variables in the seasonal patterns of cholera epidemics is less understood. Preliminary results suggest that a unique combination of increasing water temperature and higher salinity in the coastal zone during the low flow season provide the situation amenable to the first outbreak of cholera in the spring season. Other major factors contributing to the subsequent spread of the disease are sea surface height, monsoon precipitation, and coastal phytoplankton concentration. We will further examine the lag periods between the dominant environmental variables and cholera incidences to understand the seasonal dynamics of cholera in South Asia.

Value of long-term streamflow forecast to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated catchments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anghileri, Daniela; Voisin, Nathalie; Castelletti, Andrea F.

In this study, we develop a forecast-based adaptive control framework for Oroville reservoir, California, to assess the value of seasonal and inter-annual forecasts for reservoir operation.We use an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to generate retrospective, one-year-long streamflow forecasts based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrology model. The optimal sequence of daily release decisions from the reservoir is then determined by Model Predictive Control, a flexible and adaptive optimization scheme.We assess the forecast value by comparing system performance based on the ESP forecasts with that based on climatology and a perfect forecast. In addition, we evaluate system performance based onmore » a synthetic forecast, which is designed to isolate the contribution of seasonal and inter-annual forecast skill to the overall value of the ESP forecasts.Using the same ESP forecasts, we generalize our results by evaluating forecast value as a function of forecast skill, reservoir features, and demand. Our results show that perfect forecasts are valuable when the water demand is high and the reservoir is sufficiently large to allow for annual carry-over. Conversely, ESP forecast value is highest when the reservoir can shift water on a seasonal basis.On average, for the system evaluated here, the overall ESP value is 35% less than the perfect forecast value. The inter-annual component of the ESP forecast contributes 20-60% of the total forecast value. Improvements in the seasonal component of the ESP forecast would increase the overall ESP forecast value between 15 and 20%.« less

China's water sustainability in the 21st century: a climate-informed water risk assessment covering multi-sector water demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Naresh, D.; Upmanu, L.; Hao, Z.; Dong, L.; Ju, Q.; Wang, J.; Wang, S.

2014-05-01

China is facing a water resources crisis with growing concerns as to the reliable supply of water for agricultural, industrial and domestic needs. High inter-annual rainfall variability and increasing consumptive use across the country exacerbates the situation further and is a constraint on future development. For water sustainability, it is necessary to examine the differences in water demand and supply and their spatio-temporal distribution in order to quantify the dimensions of the water risk. Here, a detailed quantitative assessment of water risk as measured by the spatial distribution of cumulated deficits for China is presented. Considering daily precipitation and temperature variability over fifty years and the current water demands, risk measures are developed to inform county level water deficits that account for both within-year and across-year variations in climate. We choose political rather than watershed boundaries since economic activity and water use are organized by county and the political process is best informed through that unit. As expected, the risk measures highlight North China Plain counties as highly water stressed. Regions with high water stress have high inter-annual variability in rainfall and now have depleted groundwater aquifers. The stress components due to agricultural, industrial and domestic water demands are illustrated separately to assess the vulnerability of particular sectors within the country to provide a basis for targeted policy analysis for reducing water stress.

Virtual water trade patterns in relation to environmental and socioeconomic factors: A case study for Tunisia.

PubMed

Chouchane, Hatem; Krol, Maarten S; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2018-02-01

Growing water demands put increasing pressure on local water resources, especially in water-short countries. Virtual water trade can play a key role in filling the gap between local demand and supply of water-intensive commodities. This study aims to analyse the dynamics in virtual water trade of Tunisia in relation to environmental and socio-economic factors such as GDP, irrigated land, precipitation, population and water scarcity. The water footprint of crop production is estimated using AquaCrop for six crops over the period 1981-2010. Net virtual water import (NVWI) is quantified at yearly basis. Regression models are used to investigate dynamics in NVWI in relation to the selected factors. The results show that NVWI during the study period for the selected crops is not influenced by blue water scarcity. NVWI correlates in two alternative models to either population and precipitation (model I) or to GDP and irrigated area (model II). The models are better in explaining NVWI of staple crops (wheat, barley, potatoes) than NVWI of cash crops (dates, olives, tomatoes). Using model I, we are able to explain both trends and inter-annual variability for rain-fed crops. Model II performs better for irrigated crops and is able to explain trends significantly; no significant relation is found, however, with variables hypothesized to represent inter-annual variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using a respiratory navigator significantly reduces variability when quantifying left ventricular torsion with cardiovascular magnetic resonance.

PubMed

Hamlet, Sean M; Haggerty, Christopher M; Suever, Jonathan D; Wehner, Gregory J; Andres, Kristin N; Powell, David K; Charnigo, Richard J; Fornwalt, Brandon K

2017-03-01

Left ventricular (LV) torsion is an important indicator of cardiac function that is limited by high inter-test variability (50% of the mean value). We hypothesized that this high inter-test variability is partly due to inconsistent breath-hold positions during serial image acquisitions, which could be significantly improved by using a respiratory navigator for cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) based quantification of LV torsion. We assessed respiratory-related variability in measured LV torsion with two distinct experimental protocols. First, 17 volunteers were recruited for CMR with cine displacement encoding with stimulated echoes (DENSE) in which a respiratory navigator was used to measure and then enforce variability in end-expiratory position between all LV basal and apical acquisitions. From these data, we quantified the inter-test variability of torsion in the absence and presence of enforced end-expiratory position variability, which established an upper bound for the expected torsion variability. For the second experiment (in 20 new, healthy volunteers), 10 pairs of cine DENSE basal and apical images were each acquired from consecutive breath-holds and consecutive navigator-gated scans (with a single acceptance position). Inter-test variability of torsion was compared between the breath-hold and navigator-gated scans to quantify the variability due to natural breath-hold variation. To demonstrate the importance of these variability reductions, we quantified the reduction in sample size required to detect a clinically meaningful change in LV torsion with the use of a respiratory navigator. The mean torsion was 3.4 ± 0.2°/cm. From the first experiment, enforced variability in end-expiratory position translated to considerable variability in measured torsion (0.56 ± 0.34°/cm), whereas inter-test variability with consistent end-expiratory position was 57% lower (0.24 ± 0.16°/cm, p < 0.001). From the second experiment, natural respiratory variability from consecutive breath-holds translated to a variability in torsion of 0.24 ± 0.10°/cm, which was significantly higher than the variability from navigator-gated scans (0.18 ± 0.06°/cm, p = 0.02). By using a respiratory navigator with DENSE, theoretical sample sizes were reduced from 66 to 16 and 26 to 15 as calculated from the two experiments. A substantial portion (22-57%) of the inter-test variability of LV torsion can be reduced by using a respiratory navigator to ensure a consistent breath-hold position between image acquisitions.

Inter-annual Variations in Snow/Firn Density over the Greenland Ice Sheet by Combining GRACE gravimetry and Envisat Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, X.; Shum, C. K.; Guo, J.; Howat, I.; Jezek, K. C.; Luo, Z.; Zhou, Z.

2017-12-01

Satellite altimetry has been used to monitor elevation and volume change of polar ice sheets since the 1990s. In order to derive mass change from the measured volume change, different density assumptions are commonly used in the research community, which may cause discrepancies on accurately estimating ice sheets mass balance. In this study, we investigate the inter-annual anomalies of mass change from GRACE gravimetry and elevation change from Envisat altimetry during years 2003-2009, with the objective of determining inter-annual variations of snow/firn density over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). High positive correlations (0.6 or higher) between these two inter-annual anomalies at are found over 93% of the GrIS, which suggests that both techniques detect the same geophysical process at the inter-annual timescale. Interpreting the two anomalies in terms of near surface density variations, over 80% of the GrIS, the inter-annual variation in average density is between the densities of snow and pure ice. In particular, at the Summit of Central Greenland, we validate the satellite data estimated density with the in situ data available from 75 snow pits and 9 ice cores. This study provides constraints on the currently applied density assumptions for the GrIS.

Monthly variations of dew point temperature in the coterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Peter J.

1998-11-01

The dew point temperature, Td, data from the surface airways data set of the U.S. National Climatic Data Center were used to develop a basic dew point climatology for the coterminous United States. Quality control procedures were an integral part of the analysis. Daily Td, derived as the average of eight observations at 3-hourly intervals, for 222 stations for the 1961-1990 period were used. The annual and seasonal pattern of average values showed a clear south-north decrease in the eastern portion of the nation, a trend which was most marked in winter. In the west, values decreased inland from the Pacific Coast. Inter-annual variability was generally low when actual mean values were high. A cluster analysis suggested that the area could be divided into six regions, two oriented north-south in the west, four aligned east-west in the area east of the Rocky Mountains. Day-to-day variability was low in all seasons in the two western clusters, but showed a distinct winter maximum in the east. This was explained in broad terms by consideration of air flow regimes, with the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico acting as the major moisture sources. Comparison of values for pairs of nearby stations suggested that Td was rather insensitive to local moisture sources. Analysis of the patterns of occurrence of dew points exceeding the 95th percentile threshold indicated that extremes in summer tend to be localized and short-lived, while in winter they are more widespread and persistent.

Variability of Springtime Transpacific Pollution Transport During 2000-2006: The INTEX-5 Mission in the Context of Previous Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfister, G. G.; Emmons, L. K.; Edwards, D. P.; Arellano, A.; Sachse, G.; Campos, T.

2010-01-01

We analyze the transport of pollution across the Pacific during the NASA INTEX-B (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Part 8) campaign in spring 2006 and examine how this year compares to the time period for 2000 through 2006. In addition to aircraft measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) collected during INTEX-B, we include in this study multi-year satellite retrievals of CO from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument and simulations from the chemistry transport model MOZART-4. Model tracers are used to examine the contributions of different source regions and source types to pollution levels over the Pacific. Additional modeling studies are performed to separate the impacts of inter-annual variability in meteorology and .dynamics from changes in source strength. interannual variability in the tropospheric CO burden over the Pacific and the US as estimated from the MOPITT data range up to 7% and a somewhat smaller estimate (5%) is derived from the model. When keeping the emissions in the model constant between years, the year-to-year changes are reduced (2%), but show that in addition to changes in emissions, variable meteorological conditions also impact transpacific pollution transport. We estimate that about 113 of the variability in the tropospheric CO loading over the contiguous US is explained by changes in emissions and about 213 by changes in meteorology and transport. Biomass burning sources are found to be a larger driver for inter-annual variability in the CO loading compared to fossil and biofuel sources or photochemical CO production even though their absolute contributions are smaller. Source contribution analysis shows that the aircraft sampling during INTEX-B was fairly representative of the larger scale region, but with a slight bias towards higher influence from Asian contributions.

Decadal variability on the Northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Sam; Cottier, Finlo; Inall, Mark; Griffiths, Colin

2018-02-01

Decadal scale time series of the shelf seas are important for understanding both climate and process studies. Despite numerous investigations of long-term temperature variability in the shelf seas, studies of salinity variability are few. Salt is a more conservative tracer than temperature in shallow seas, and it can reveal changes in local hydrographic conditions as well as transmitted basin-scale changes. Here, new inter-annual salinity time series on the northwest European shelf are developed and a 13 year high resolution salinity record from a coastal mooring in western Scotland is presented and analysed. We find strong temporal variability in coastal salinity on timescales ranging from tidal to inter-annual, with the magnitude of variability greatest during winter months. There is little seasonality and no significant decadal trend in the coastal time series of salinity. We propose 4 hydrographic states to explain salinity variance in the shelf area west of Scotland based on the interaction between a baroclinic coastal current and wind-forced barotropic flow: while wind forcing is important, we find that changes in the buoyancy-driven flow are more likely to influence long-term salinity observations. We calculate that during prevailing westerly wind conditions, surface waters in the Sea of the Hebrides receive a mix of 62% Atlantic origin water to 38% coastal sources. This contrasts with easterly wind conditions, during which the mix is 6% Atlantic to 94% coastal sources on average. This 'switching' between hydrographic states is expected to impact nutrient transport and therefore modify the level of primary productivity on the shelf. This strong local variability in salinity is roughly an order of magnitude greater than changes in the adjacent ocean basin, and we infer from this that Scottish coastal waters are likely to be resilient to decadal changes in ocean climate.

Evaluation of the Cloud Fields in the UK Met Office HadGEM3-UKCA Model Using the CCCM Satellite Data Product to Advance Our Understanding of the Influence of Clouds on Tropospheric Composition and Chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Varma, Sunil; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James H.; White, James

2016-01-01

To determine the role of clouds in driving inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability of trace gases in the troposphere and lower stratosphere with a particular focus on the importance of cloud modification of photolysis. To evaluate the cloud fields and their vertical distribution in the HadGEM3 model utilizing CCCM, a unique 3-D cloud data product merged from multiple A-Train satellites (CERES, CloudSat, CALIPSO, and MODIS) developed at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Monitoring Food Security Indicators from Remote Sensing and Predicting Cereal Production in Afghanistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pervez, M. S.; Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.

2015-12-01

We extract percent of basin snow covered areas above 2500m elevation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 500-meter 8-day snow cover composites to monitor accumulation and depletion of snow in the basin. While the accumulation and depletion of snow cover extent provides an indication of the temporal progression of the snow pack, it does not provide insight into available water for irrigation. Therefore, we use snow model results from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center to quantify snow water equivalent and volume of water available within the snowpack for irrigation. In an effort to understand how water availability, along with its inter-annual variability, relates to the food security of the country, we develop a simple, effective, and easy-to-implement model to identify irrigated areas across the country on both annual and mid-season basis. The model is based on applying thresholds to peak growing season vegetation indices—derived from 250-meter MODIS images—in a decision-tree classifier to separate irrigated crops from non-irrigated vegetation. The spatial distribution and areal estimates of irrigated areas from these maps compare well with irrigated areas classified from multiple snap shots of the landscape from Landsat 5 optical and thermal images over selected locations. We observed that the extents of irrigated areas varied depending on the availability of snowmelt and can be between 1.35 million hectares in a year with significant water deficit and 2.4 million hectares in a year with significant water surplus. The changes in the amount of available water generally can contribute up to a 30% change in irrigated areas. We also observed that the strong correlation between inter-annual variability of irrigated areas and the variability in the country's cereal production could be utilized to predict an annual estimate of cereal production, providing early indication of food security scenarios for the country.

Stochastic evaluation of annual micropollutant loads and their uncertainties in separate storm sewers.

PubMed

Hannouche, Ali; Chebbo, Ghassan; Joannis, Claude; Gasperi, Johnny; Gromaire, Marie-Christine; Moilleron, Régis; Barraud, Sylvie; Ruban, Véronique

2017-12-01

This article describes a stochastic method to calculate the annual pollutant loads and its application over several years at the outlet of three catchments drained by separate storm sewers. A stochastic methodology using Monte Carlo simulations is proposed for assessing annual pollutant load, as well as the associated uncertainties, from a few event sampling campaigns and/or continuous turbidity measurements (representative of the total suspended solids concentration (TSS)). Indeed, in the latter case, the proposed method takes into account the correlation between pollutants and TSS. The developed method was applied to data acquired within the French research project "INOGEV" (innovations for a sustainable management of urban water) at the outlet of three urban catchments drained by separate storm sewers. Ten or so event sampling campaigns for a large range of pollutants (46 pollutants and 2 conventional water quality parameters: TSS and total organic carbon (TOC)) are combined with hundreds of rainfall events for which, at least one among three continuously monitored parameters (rainfall intensity, flow rate, and turbidity) is available. Results obtained for the three catchments show that the annual pollutant loads can be estimated with uncertainties ranging from 10 to 60%, and the added value of turbidity monitoring for lowering the uncertainty is demonstrated. A low inter-annual and inter-site variability of pollutant loads, for many of studied pollutants, is observed with respect to the estimated uncertainties, and can be explained mainly by annual precipitation.

Impact of spectral nudging on regional climate simulation over CORDEX East Asia using WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jianping; Wang, Shuyu; Niu, Xiaorui; Hui, Pinhong; Zong, Peishu; Wang, Xueyuan

2017-04-01

In this study, the impact of the spectral nudging method on regional climate simulation over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment East Asia (CORDEX-EA) region is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, five continuous simulations covering 1989-2007 are conducted by the WRF model, in which four runs adopt the interior spectral nudging with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validation shows that WRF has the ability to simulate spatial distributions and temporal variations of the surface climate (air temperature and precipitation) over CORDEX-EA domain. Comparably the spectral nudging technique is effective in improving the model's skill in the following aspects: (1), the simulated biases and root mean square errors of annual mean temperature and precipitation are obviously reduced. The SN3-UVT (spectral nudging with wavenumber 3 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U, V and T) and SN6 (spectral nudging with wavenumber 6 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U and V) experiments give the best simulations for temperature and precipitation respectively. The inter-annual and seasonal variances produced by the SN experiments are also closer to the ERA-Interim observation. (2), the application of spectral nudging in WRF is helpful for simulating the extreme temperature and precipitation, and the SN3-UVT simulation shows a clear advantage over the other simulations in depicting both the spatial distributions and inter-annual variances of temperature and precipitation extremes. With the spectral nudging, WRF is able to preserve the variability in the large scale climate information, and therefore adjust the temperature and precipitation variabilities toward the observation.

The Rangeland Vegetation Simulator: A user-driven system for quantifying production, succession, disturbance and fuels in non-forest environments

Treesearch

Matt Reeves; Leonardo Frid

2016-01-01

Rangeland landscapes occupy roughly 662 million acres in the coterminous U.S. (Reeves and Mitchell 2011) and their vegetation responds quickly to climate and management, with high relative growth rates and inter-annual variability. Current national decision support systems in the U.S. such as the Interagency Fuels Treatment Decision Support System (IFT-DSS) require...

Measuring and modeling carbon stock change estimates for US forests and uncertainties from apparent inter-annual variability

Treesearch

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

2015-01-01

Our approach is based on a collection of models that convert or augment the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis program survey data to estimate all forest carbon component stocks, including live and standing dead tree aboveground and belowground biomass, forest floor (litter), down deadwood, and soil organic carbon, for each inventory plot. The data, which include...

Sensitivity of regional forest carbon budgets to continuous and stochastic climate change pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Scheller, R. M.

2010-12-01

Climate change is expected to impact forest-atmosphere carbon budgets through three processes: 1. Increased disturbance rates, including fires, mortality due to pest outbreaks, and severe storms 2. Changes in patterns of inter-annual variability, related to increased incidence of severe droughts and defoliating insect outbreaks 3. Continuous changes in forest productivity and respiration, related to increases in mean temperature, growing season length, and CO2 fertilization While the importance of these climate change effects in future regional carbon budgets has been established, quantitative characterization of the relative sensitivity of forested landscapes to these different types of pressures is needed. We present a model- and- data-based approach to understanding the sensitivity of forested landscapes to climate change pressures. Eddy-covariance and biometric measurements from forests in the northern United States were used to constrain two forest landscape models. The first, LandNEP, uses a prescribed functional form for the evolution of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the age of a forested grid cell, which is reset following a disturbance event. This model was used for investigating the basic statistical properties of a simple landscape’s responses to climate change pressures. The second model, LANDIS-II, includes different tree species and models forest biomass accumulation and succession, allowing us to investigate the effects of more complex forest processes such as species change and carbon pool accumulation on landscape responses to climate change effects. We tested the sensitivity of forested landscapes to these three types of climate change pressures by applying ensemble perturbations of random disturbance rates, distribution functions of inter-annual variability, and maximum potential carbon uptake rates, in the two models. We find that landscape-scale net carbon exchange responds linearly to continuous changes in potential carbon uptake and inter-annual variability, while responses to stochastic changes are non-linear and become more important at shorter mean disturbance intervals. These results provide insight on how to better parameterize coupled carbon-climate models to more realistically simulate feedbacks between forests and the atmosphere.

Contribution of Phenological and Physiological Variations on Northern Vegetation Productivity Changes over Last Three Decades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganguly, Sangram

2015-01-01

Plant phenology and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of gross primary productivity (GPP) of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts of phenology and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we investigate 1) how vegetation phenology and physiological status (maximum photosynthesis) are evolved over last three decades and 2) how such components (phenology and physiological status) contribute on inter-annual variation of the GPP during the last three decades. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed (GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies), NDVI3g (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index 3rd generation) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)) to extract larger scale phenology metrics (growing season start, end and duration); and productivity (i.e., growing season integrated vegetation index, GSIVI) to answer these questions. For evaluation purpose, we also introduced field-measured phenology and productivity datasets (e.g., FLUXNET) and possible remotely-sensed and modeled metrics at continental and regional scales. From this investigation, we found that onset of the growing season has advanced by 1.61 days per decade and the growing season end has delayed by 0.67 days per decade over the circumpolar region. This asymmetric extension of growing season results in a longer growing-season trend (2.96 days per decade) and widespread increasing vegetation-productivity trend (2.96 GSIVI per decade) over Northern land. However, the regionally-diverged phenology shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity, inter-annual variability and trend. We quantified that about 50 percent, 13 percent and 6.5 percent of Northern land's inter-annual variability are dominantly controlled by the onset of the growing season, the end of the growing season and the maximum photosynthetic state, respectively. Productivity characterization over the other approximately 30 percent region has been driven by these co-dominant drivers. Our study clearly shows that regionally different contribution of phenological and physiological components on characterizing vegetation production over the last three decades.

Combined role of heat and water stresses on wheat, maize and rice inter-annual variability and trend from 1980 to 2010.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zampieri, M.; Ceglar, A., , Dr; Dentener, F., , Dr; van den Berg, M., , Dr; Toreti, A., , Dr

2017-12-01

Heat waves and drought are often considered the most damaging climatic stressors for wheat and maize. In this study, based on data derived from observations, we characterize and attribute the effects of these climate extremes on wheat and maize yield anomalies (at global and national scales) with respect to the mean trend from 1980 to 2010. Using a combination of up-to-date heat wave and drought indexes (i.e. the Heat Magnitude Day, HMD, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), we have developed a composite indicator (i.e. the Combined Stress Index, CSI) that is able to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of the underlying physical processes in the different agro-climatic regions of the world. At the global level, our diagnostic explains the 42% and the 50% of the inter-annual wheat and maize production variabilities, respectively. The relative importance of heat stress and drought in determining the yield anomalies depends on the region. Compared to maize, and in contrast to common perception, water excess affects wheat production more than drought in several countries. The index definition can be modified in order to quantify the role of combined heat and water stress events occurrence in determining the recorded yield trends as well. Climate change is increasingly limiting maize yields in several countries, especially in Europe and China. A comparable opposite signal, albeit less statistically significant, is found for the USA, which is the main world producer. As for rice, we provide a statistical evidence pointing out to the importance of considering the interactions with the horizontal surface waters fluxes carried out by the rivers. In fact, compared to wheat and maize, the CSI statistical skills in explaining rice production variability are quite reduced. This issue is particularly relevant in paddy fields and flooded lowlands where rice is mainly grown. Therefore, we have modified the procedure including a proxy for the surface freshwater availability i.e. the Standardized River Discharge Index (SRDI), defined in this study. The modified CSI explains the 35% of the global rice production inter-annual anomalies.

A Bayesian model for quantifying the change in mortality associated with future ozone exposures under climate change.

PubMed

Alexeeff, Stacey E; Pfister, Gabriele G; Nychka, Doug

2016-03-01

Climate change is expected to have many impacts on the environment, including changes in ozone concentrations at the surface level. A key public health concern is the potential increase in ozone-related summertime mortality if surface ozone concentrations rise in response to climate change. Although ozone formation depends partly on summertime weather, which exhibits considerable inter-annual variability, previous health impact studies have not incorporated the variability of ozone into their prediction models. A major source of uncertainty in the health impacts is the variability of the modeled ozone concentrations. We propose a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo estimation method for quantifying health effects of future ozone. An advantage of this approach is that we include the uncertainty in both the health effect association and the modeled ozone concentrations. Using our proposed approach, we quantify the expected change in ozone-related summertime mortality in the contiguous United States between 2000 and 2050 under a changing climate. The mortality estimates show regional patterns in the expected degree of impact. We also illustrate the results when using a common technique in previous work that averages ozone to reduce the size of the data, and contrast these findings with our own. Our analysis yields more realistic inferences, providing clearer interpretation for decision making regarding the impacts of climate change. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Wheat yield loss attributable to heat waves, drought and water excess at the global, national and subnational scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zampieri, M.; Ceglar, A.; Dentener, F.; Toreti, A.

2017-06-01

Heat waves and drought are often considered the most damaging climatic stressors for wheat. In this study, we characterize and attribute the effects of these climate extremes on wheat yield anomalies (at global and national scales) from 1980 to 2010. Using a combination of up-to-date heat wave and drought indexes (the latter capturing both excessively dry and wet conditions), we have developed a composite indicator that is able to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of the underlying physical processes in the different agro-climatic regions of the world. At the global level, our diagnostic explains a significant portion (more than 40%) of the inter-annual production variability. By quantifying the contribution of national yield anomalies to global fluctuations, we have found that just two concurrent yield anomalies affecting the larger producers of the world could be responsible for more than half of the global annual fluctuations. The relative importance of heat stress and drought in determining the yield anomalies depends on the region. Moreover, in contrast to common perception, water excess affects wheat production more than drought in several countries. We have also performed the same analysis at the subnational level for France, which is the largest wheat producer of the European Union, and home to a range of climatic zones. Large subnational variability of inter-annual wheat yield is mostly captured by the heat and water stress indicators, consistently with the country-level result.

[Responses of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to precipitation changes on the grassland of Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2015.

PubMed

Wang, Zhi Peng; Zhang, Xian Zhou; He, Yong Tao; Li, Meng; Shi, Pei Li; Zu, Jia Xing; Niu, Ben

2018-01-01

Precipitation change is an important factor in the inter-annual variation of grassland growth on the Tibetan Plateau. The total amount, distribution pattern and concentration time are three basic characteristics of precipitation change. The temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation change were analyzed based on climate data of 145 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau and nearby areas from 2000 to 2015. The total precipitation amount was characterized by annual precipitation, distribution pattern of precipitation during the year was characterized by improved precipitation concentration index (PCI), and precipitation centroid (PC) was defined to indicate the change in precipitation concentrated time. To better illustrate the response of grassland to precipitation change, vegetation growth status was characterized by the maximum value of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI max ). Results indicated that the annual precipitation and PCI had an apparent gradient across the whole plateau and the latest PC occurred in the southern plateau. NDVI max of alpine shrub grassland was significantly correlated with the change of PCI,increased with even distribution of precipitation during growth period, and limited by the total annual precipitation. Alpine meadow did not show significantly correlations with these three indices. The inter-annual variability of NDVI max of steppe was controlled by both PCI and PC. NDVI max of alpine desert grassland was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. In addition to annual total amount of precipitation, the distribution characteristics of precipitation should be further considered when the influence of precipitation change on different types of vegetation on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau was studied.

Inter-annual variation of carbon uptake by a plantation oak woodland in south-eastern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, M.; Eaton, E. L.; Broadmeadow, M. S. J.; Morison, J. I. L.

2012-12-01

The carbon balance of an 80-yr-old deciduous oak plantation in the temperate oceanic climate of the south-east of Great Britain was measured by eddy covariance over 12 yr (1999-2010). The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 486 g C m-2 yr-1 (95% CI of ±73 g C m-2 yr-1), and this was partitioned into a gross primary productivity (GPP) of 2034 ± 145 g C m-2 yr-1, over a 165 (±6) day growing season, and an annual loss of carbon through respiration and decomposition (ecosystem respiration, Reco) of 1548 ± 122 g C m-2 yr-1. Although the maximum variation of NEP between years was large (333 g C m-2 yr-1), the ratio of Reco/GPP remained relatively constant (0.76 ± 0.02 CI). Some anomalies in the annual patterns of the carbon balance could be linked to particular weather events, such as low summer solar radiation and low soil moisture content (values below 30% by volume). The European-wide heat wave and drought of 2003 did not reduce the NEP of this woodland because of good water supply from the surface-water gley soil. The inter-annual variation in estimated intercepted radiation only accounted for ~ 47% of the variation in GPP, although a significant relationship (p < 0.001) was found between peak leaf area index and annual GPP, which modified the efficiency with which incident radiation was used in net CO2 uptake. Whilst the spring start and late autumn end of the net CO2 uptake period varied substantially (range of 24 and 27 days respectively), annual GPP was not related to growing season length. Severe outbreaks of defoliating moth caterpillars, mostly Tortrix viridana L. and Operophtera brumata L., caused considerable damage to the forest canopy in 2009 and 2010, resulting in reduced GPP in these two years. Inter-annual variation in the sensitivity of Reco to temperature was found to be strongly related to summer soil moisture content. The eddy covariance estimates of NEP closely matched mensuration-based estimates, demonstrating that this forest was a substantial sink of carbon over the 12-yr measurement period.

The effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on crop-related green and blue water footprints and inter-regional virtual water trade: A study for China (1978-2008).

PubMed

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-05-01

Previous studies into the relation between human consumption and indirect water resources use have unveiled the remote connections in virtual water (VW) trade networks, which show how communities externalize their water footprint (WF) to places far beyond their own region, but little has been done to understand variability in time. This study quantifies the effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on WF and VW trade, using China over the period 1978-2008 as a case study. Evapotranspiration, crop yields and green and blue WFs of crops are estimated at a 5 × 5 arc-minute resolution for 22 crops, for each year in the study period, thus accounting for climate variability. The results show that crop yield improvements during the study period helped to reduce the national average WF of crop consumption per capita by 23%, with a decreasing contribution to the total from cereals and increasing contribution from oil crops. The total consumptive WFs of national crop consumption and crop production, however, grew by 6% and 7%, respectively. By 2008, 28% of total water consumption in crop fields in China served the production of crops for export to other regions and, on average, 35% of the crop-related WF of a Chinese consumer was outside its own province. Historically, the net VW within China was from the water-rich South to the water-scarce North, but intensifying North-to-South crop trade reversed the net VW flow since 2000, which amounted 6% of North's WF of crop production in 2008. South China thus gradually became dependent on food supply from the water-scarce North. Besides, during the whole study period, China's domestic inter-regional VW flows went dominantly from areas with a relatively large to areas with a relatively small blue WF per unit of crop, which in 2008 resulted in a trade-related blue water loss of 7% of the national total blue WF of crop production. The case of China shows that domestic trade, as governed by economics and governmental policies rather than by regional differences in water endowments, determines inter-regional water dependencies and may worsen rather than relieve the water scarcity in a country. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Climatic effects on breeding grounds are more important drivers of breeding phenology in migrant birds than carry-over effects from wintering grounds.

PubMed

Ockendon, Nancy; Leech, Dave; Pearce-Higgins, James W

2013-01-01

Long-distance migrants may be particularly vulnerable to climate change on both wintering and breeding grounds. However, the relative importance of climatic variables at different stages of the annual cycle is poorly understood, even in well-studied Palaearctic migrant species. Using a national dataset spanning 46 years, we investigate the impact of wintering ground precipitation and breeding ground temperature on breeding phenology and clutch size of 19 UK migrants. Although both spring temperature and arid zone precipitation were significantly correlated with laying date, the former accounted for 3.5 times more inter-annual variation. Neither climate variable strongly affected clutch size. Thus, although carry-over effects had some impact, they were weaker drivers of reproductive traits than conditions on the breeding grounds.

Inter-annual and decadal changes in teleconnections drive continental-scale synchronization of tree reproduction.

PubMed

Ascoli, Davide; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Turco, Marco; Conedera, Marco; Drobyshev, Igor; Maringer, Janet; Motta, Renzo; Hacket-Pain, Andrew

2017-12-20

Climate teleconnections drive highly variable and synchronous seed production (masting) over large scales. Disentangling the effect of high-frequency (inter-annual variation) from low-frequency (decadal trends) components of climate oscillations will improve our understanding of masting as an ecosystem process. Using century-long observations on masting (the MASTREE database) and data on the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we show that in the last 60 years both high-frequency summer and spring NAO, and low-frequency winter NAO components are highly correlated to continent-wide masting in European beech and Norway spruce. Relationships are weaker (non-stationary) in the early twentieth century. This finding improves our understanding on how climate variation affects large-scale synchronization of tree masting. Moreover, it supports the connection between proximate and ultimate causes of masting: indeed, large-scale features of atmospheric circulation coherently drive cues and resources for masting, as well as its evolutionary drivers, such as pollination efficiency, abundance of seed dispersers, and natural disturbance regimes.

Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

PubMed Central

Sheen, K. L.; Smith, D. M.; Dunstone, N. J.; Eade, R.; Rowell, D. P.; Vellinga, M.

2017-01-01

Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate. PMID:28541288

Phytoplankton dynamics in relation to seasonal variability and upwelling and relaxation patterns at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin) over a four-year period

PubMed Central

Calado, António José; Moita, Maria Teresa; Cunha, Marina R.

2017-01-01

From June 2004 to December 2007, samples were weekly collected at a fixed station located at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin). We examined the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in composition and community structure of the phytoplankton in relation to the main environmental drivers and assessed the influence of the oceanographic regime, namely changes in frequency and intensity of upwelling events, over the dynamics of the phytoplankton assemblage. The samples were consistently handled and a final subset of 136 OTUs (taxa with relative abundance > 0.01%) was subsequently submitted to various multivariate analyses. The phytoplankton assemblage showed significant changes at all temporal scales but with an overriding importance of seasonality over longer- (inter-annual) or shorter-term fluctuations (upwelling-related). Sea-surface temperature, salinity and maximum upwelling index were retrieved as the main driver of seasonal change. Seasonal signal was most evident in the fluctuations of chlorophyll a concentration and in the high turnover from the winter to spring phytoplankton assemblage. The seasonal cycle of production and succession was disturbed by upwelling events known to disrupt thermal stratification and induce changes in the phytoplankton assemblage. Our results indicate that both the frequency and intensity of physical forcing were important drivers of such variability, but the outcome in terms of species composition was highly dependent on the available local pool of species and the timing of those events in relation to the seasonal cycle. We conclude that duration, frequency and intensity of upwelling events, which vary seasonally and inter-annually, are paramount for maintaining long-term phytoplankton diversity likely by allowing unstable coexistence and incorporating species turnover at different scales. Our results contribute to the understanding of the complex mechanisms of coastal phytoplankton dynamics in relation to changing physical forcing which is fundamental to improve predictability of future prospects under climate change. PMID:28472179

Phytoplankton dynamics in relation to seasonal variability and upwelling and relaxation patterns at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin) over a four-year period.

PubMed

Vidal, Tânia; Calado, António José; Moita, Maria Teresa; Cunha, Marina R

2017-01-01

From June 2004 to December 2007, samples were weekly collected at a fixed station located at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin). We examined the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in composition and community structure of the phytoplankton in relation to the main environmental drivers and assessed the influence of the oceanographic regime, namely changes in frequency and intensity of upwelling events, over the dynamics of the phytoplankton assemblage. The samples were consistently handled and a final subset of 136 OTUs (taxa with relative abundance > 0.01%) was subsequently submitted to various multivariate analyses. The phytoplankton assemblage showed significant changes at all temporal scales but with an overriding importance of seasonality over longer- (inter-annual) or shorter-term fluctuations (upwelling-related). Sea-surface temperature, salinity and maximum upwelling index were retrieved as the main driver of seasonal change. Seasonal signal was most evident in the fluctuations of chlorophyll a concentration and in the high turnover from the winter to spring phytoplankton assemblage. The seasonal cycle of production and succession was disturbed by upwelling events known to disrupt thermal stratification and induce changes in the phytoplankton assemblage. Our results indicate that both the frequency and intensity of physical forcing were important drivers of such variability, but the outcome in terms of species composition was highly dependent on the available local pool of species and the timing of those events in relation to the seasonal cycle. We conclude that duration, frequency and intensity of upwelling events, which vary seasonally and inter-annually, are paramount for maintaining long-term phytoplankton diversity likely by allowing unstable coexistence and incorporating species turnover at different scales. Our results contribute to the understanding of the complex mechanisms of coastal phytoplankton dynamics in relation to changing physical forcing which is fundamental to improve predictability of future prospects under climate change.

A decade of boreal rich fen greenhouse gas fluxes in response to natural and experimental water table variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olefeldt, David; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Kane, Evan S.; McGuire, A. David; Waldrop, Mark P.; Turetsky, Merritt R.

2017-01-01

Rich fens are common boreal ecosystems with distinct hydrology, biogeochemistry and ecology that influence their carbon (C) balance. We present growing season soil chamber methane emission (FCH4), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) fluxes from a 9-years water table manipulation experiment in an Alaskan rich fen. The study included major flood and drought years, where wetting and drying treatments further modified the severity of droughts. Results support previous findings from peatlands that drought causes reduced magnitude of growing season FCH4, GPP and NEE, thus reducing or reversing their C sink function. Experimentally exacerbated droughts further reduced the capacity for the fen to act as a C sink by causing shifts in vegetation and thus reducing magnitude of maximum growing season GPP in subsequent flood years by ~15% compared to control plots. Conversely, water table position had only a weak influence on ER, but dominant contribution to ER switched from autotrophic respiration in wet years to heterotrophic in dry years. Droughts did not cause inter-annual lag effects on ER in this rich fen, as has been observed in several nutrient-poor peatlands. While ER was dependent on soil temperatures at 2 cm depth, FCH4 was linked to soil temperatures at 25 cm. Inter-annual variability of deep soil temperatures was in turn dependent on wetness rather than air temperature, and higher FCH4 in flooded years was thus equally due to increased methane production at depth and decreased methane oxidation near the surface. Short-term fluctuations in wetness caused significant lag effects on FCH4, but droughts caused no inter-annual lag effects on FCH4. Our results show that frequency and severity of droughts and floods can have characteristic effects on the exchange of greenhouse gases, and emphasize the need to project future hydrological regimes in rich fens.

Impact of climate variability and anthropogenic activity on streamflow in the Three Rivers Headwater Region, Tibetan Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chong; Li, Daiqing; Gao, Yanni; Liu, Wenfeng; Zhang, Linbo

2017-07-01

Under the impacts of climate variability and human activities, there is violent fluctuation for streamflow in the large basins in China. Therefore, it is crucial to separate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow fluctuation for better water resources planning and management. In this study, the Three Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) was chosen as the study area. Long-term hydrological data for the TRHR were collected in order to investigate the changes in annual runoff during the period of 1956-2012. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, moving t test, Pettitt test, Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test, and the cumulative anomaly curve were used to identify trends and change points in the hydro-meteorological variables. Change point in runoff was identified in the three basins, which respectively occurred around the years 1989 and 1993, dividing the long-term runoff series into a natural period and a human-induced period. Then, the hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In the human-induced period, climate variability was the main factor that increased (reduced) runoff in LRB and YARB (YRB) with contribution of more than 90 %, while the increasing (decreasing) percentage due to human activities only accounted for less than 10 %, showing that runoff in the TRHR is more sensitive to climate variability than human activities. The intra-annual distribution of runoff shifted gradually from a double peak pattern to a single peak pattern, which was mainly influenced by atmospheric circulation in the summer and autumn. The inter-annual variation in runoff was jointly controlled by the East Asian monsoon, the westerly, and Tibetan Plateau monsoons.

Kelvin wave coupling from TIMED and GOCE: Inter/intra-annual variability and solar activity effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasperini, Federico; Forbes, Jeffrey M.; Doornbos, Eelco N.; Bruinsma, Sean L.

2018-06-01

The primary mechanism through which energy and momentum are transferred from the lower atmosphere to the thermosphere is through the generation and propagation of atmospheric waves. It is becoming increasingly evident that a few waves from the tropical wave spectrum preferentially propagate into the thermosphere and contribute to modify satellite drag. Two of the more prominent and well-established tropical waves are Kelvin waves: the eastward-propagating 3-day ultra-fast Kelvin wave (UFKW) and the eastward-propagating diurnal tide with zonal wave number 3 (DE3). In this work, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperatures at 110 km and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) neutral densities and cross-track winds near 260 km are used to demonstrate vertical coupling in this height regime due to the UFKW and DE3. Significant inter- and intra-annual variability is found in DE3 and the UFKW, with evidence of latitudinal broadening and filtering of the latitude structures with height due to the effect of dissipation and mean winds. Additionally, anti-correlation between the vertical penetration of these waves to the middle thermosphere and solar activity level is established and explained through the effect of molecular dissipation.

Mushroom biomass and diversity are driven by different spatio-temporal scales along Mediterranean elevation gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alday, Josu G.; Martínez de Aragón, Juan; de-Miguel, Sergio; Bonet, José Antonio

2017-04-01

Mushrooms are important non-wood-forest-products in many Mediterranean ecosystems, being highly vulnerable to climate change. However, the ecological scales of variation of mushroom productivity and diversity, and climate dependence has been usually overlooked due to a lack of available data. We determined the spatio-temporal variability of epigeous sporocarps and the climatic factors driving their fruiting to plan future sustainable management of wild mushrooms production. We collected fruiting bodies in Pinus sylvestris stands along an elevation gradient for 8 consecutive years. Overall, sporocarp biomass was mainly dependent on inter-annual variations, whereas richness was more spatial-scale dependent. Elevation was not significant, but there were clear elevational differences in biomass and richness patterns between ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds. The main driver of variation was late-summer-early-autumn precipitation. Thus, different scale processes (inter-annual vs. spatial-scale) drive sporocarp biomass and diversity patterns; temporal effects for biomass and ectomycorrhizal fungi vs. spatial scale for diversity and saprotrophic fungi. The significant role of precipitation across fungal guilds and spatio-temporal scales indicates that it is a limiting resource controlling sporocarp production and diversity in Mediterranean regions. The high spatial and temporal variability of mushrooms emphasize the need for long-term datasets of multiple spatial points to effectively characterize fungal fruiting patterns.

The Greenland Sea Odden: Intra- and inter-annual variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, C.A.; Fischer, K.W.; Shuchman, R.A.; Josberger, E.G.

1997-01-01

The "Odden" is a large sea ice feature that forms in the East Greenland Sea which generally forms at the beginning of the winter season and can cover 300,000 km2. Throughout the winter, the outer edge of the Odden may advance and retreat by several hundred kilometers on time scales of a few days to weeks. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1978 through 1995 provide a continuous record of the spatial and temporal variations of this extremely dynamic phenomenon. The 17 year record shows both strong inter- and intra-annual variations in Odden extent and temporal behavior. An analysis of the satellite passive microwave derived ice area and extent time series along with meteorological data from the Arctic Drifting Buoy Network determined the meteorological forcing required for Odden growth, maintenance and decay. The key meteorological parameters which cause the rapid ice formation and decay associated with the Odden are, in order of importance, air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Atmospheric pressure was found not to play a significant role in the Odden events. Air temperature and wind direction are the dominant variables with temperatures below -9.5??C and winds from the west required to trigger significant Odden ice formation events. ??2004 Copyright SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering.

Vertical structure of atmospheric boundary layer over Ranchi during the summer monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Sagarika; Srivastava, Nishi; Kumar, Manoj

2018-04-01

Thermodynamic structure and variability in the atmospheric boundary layer have been investigated with the help of balloon-borne GPS radiosonde over a monsoon trough station Ranchi (Lat. 23°45'N, Long. 85°43'E, India) during the summer monsoon season (June-September) for a period of 2011-2013. Virtual potential temperature gradient method is used for the determination of mixed layer height (MLH). The MLH has been found to vary in the range of 1000-1300 m during the onset, 600-900 m during the active and 1400-1750 m during the break phase of monsoon over this region. Inter-annual variations noticed in MLH could be associated with inter-annual variability in convection and rainfall prevailing over the region. Along with the MLH, the cloud layer heights are also derived from the thermodynamic profiles for the onset, active and break phases of monsoon. Cloud layer height varied a lot during different phases of the monsoon. For the determination of boundary-layer convection, thermodynamic parameter difference (δθ = θ es- θ e) between saturated equivalent potential temperature (θ es ) and equivalent potential temperature (θ e) is used. It is a good indicator of convection and indicates the intense and suppressed convection during different phases of monsoon.

Reconstructing the leading mode of multi-decadal North Atlantic variability over the last two millenia using functional paleoclimate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franke, Jasper G.; Werner, Johannes; Donner, Reik V.

2017-04-01

The increasing availability of high-resolution North Atlantic paleoclimate proxies allows to not only study local climate variations in time, but also temporal changes in spatial variability patterns across the entire region possibly controlled by large-scale coherent variability modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In this study, we use functional paleoclimate network analysis [1,2] to investigate changes in the statistical similarity patterns among an ensemble of high-resolution terrestrial paleoclimate records from Northern Europe included in the Arctic 2k data base. Specifically, we construct complex networks capturing the mutual statistical similarity of inter-annual temperature variability recorded in tree ring records, ice cores and lake sediments for multidecadal time windows covering the last two millenia. The observed patterns of co-variability are ultimately connected to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and most prominently to multidecadal variations of the NAO. Based on the inferred networks, we study the dynamical similarity between regional clusters of archives defined according to present-day inter-annual temperature variations across the study region. This analysis identifies those time-dependent inter-regional linkages that are most informative about the leading-order North Atlantic climate variability according to a recent NAO reconstruction for the last millenium [3]. Based on these linkages, we extend the existing reconstruction to obtain qualitative information on multidecadal to centennial scale North Atlantic climate variability over the last two millenia. In general, we find a tendency towards a dominating positive NAO phase interrupted by pronounced and extended intervals of negative NAO. Relatively rapid transitions between both types of behaviour are present during distinct periods including the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and for the Dark Ages Little Ice Age. [1] K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, S.F.M. Breitenbach, J. Kurths: Late Holocene Asian summer monsoon dynamics from small but complex networks of paleoclimate data. Climate Dynamics 41, 3-19, 2013 [2] J.L. Oster, N.P. Kelley: Tracking regional and global teleconnections recorded by western North American speleothem records. Quaternary Science Reviews 149, 18-33, 2016 [3] P. Ortega, F. Lehner, D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C.C. Raible, M. Casado, P. Yiou: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millenium. Nature 523, 71-74, 2015

Synthesis of data from high-frequency nutrient and associated biogeochemical monitoring for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Downing, Bryan D.; Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Kraus, Tamara E.C.

2017-07-11

Executive SummaryThis report is the second in a series of three reports that provide information about high-frequency (HF) nutrient and biogeochemical monitoring in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta of northern California (Delta). The purpose of this report is to synthesize the data available from a nutrient and water-quality HF (about every 15 minutes) monitoring network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in the northern Delta. In this report, we describe the network and focus on the purpose of each station. We then present and discuss the available data, at various timescales—first at the monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual timescales, and second, for comparison, at the tidal and event timescales. As expected, we determined that there is substantial variability in nitrate-N concentrations at short timescales within hours, but also significant variability at longer timescales such as months or years. Resolving this variability is made possible by the HF data, with the largest variability caused by storms, tides, and diel biological processes. Given this large temporal variability, calculations of cumulative nutrient fluxes (for example, daily, monthly, or annual loads) is difficult without HF data. For example, in the Cache Slough, calculation of the annual load without the tidal variability resulted in a 30 percent underestimation of the true annual load value. We conclude that HF measurements are important for accurate determination of fluxes and loads in tidal environments, but, more importantly, provide important insights into processes and rates of nutrient cycling.This report, along with the other two reports of this series (Bergamaschi and others, 2017; Kraus, Bergamaschi, and others, 2017), was drafted in cooperation with the Delta Regional Monitoring Program to help scientists, managers, and planners understand how HF data improve our understanding of nutrient sources and sinks, drivers, and effects in the Delta. The first report in the series (Kraus, Bergamaschi, and others, 2017) provides an introduction to the reasons for and fundamental concepts behind using HF monitoring measurements, including a brief summary of nutrient status and trends in the Delta and an extensive literature review showing how and where other research and monitoring programs have used HF monitoring to improve our understanding of nutrient cycling. The report covers the various technologies available for HF nutrient monitoring and presents the different ways HF monitoring instrumentation may be used for fixed station and spatial assessments. Finally, it presents numerous examples of how HF measurements are currently (2017) being used in the Delta to examine how nutrients and nutrient cycling are related to aquatic habitat conditions.The third report in the series (Bergamaschi and others, 2017) provides the background, principles, and considerations for designing an HF nutrient-monitoring network for the Delta to address high-priority, nutrient-management questions. The report starts with discussion of the high‑priority management questions to be addressed, continues through discussion of the questions and considerations that place demands and constraints on network design, discusses the principles applicable to network design, and concludes with the presentation of three example nutrient-monitoring network designs for the Delta, proposed to address high-priority questions identified by the Delta Regional Monitoring Program (Delta Regional Monitoring Program Technical Advisory Committee, 2015).

Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harp, D. R.; Atchley, A. L.; Painter, S. L.; Coon, E. T.; Wilson, C. J.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Rowland, J. C.

2016-02-01

The effects of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections are studied using a three-phase subsurface thermal hydrology model and calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis. The null-space Monte Carlo method is used to identify soil hydrothermal parameter combinations that are consistent with borehole temperature measurements at the study site, the Barrow Environmental Observatory. Each parameter combination is then used in a forward projection of permafrost conditions for the 21st century (from calendar year 2006 to 2100) using atmospheric forcings from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration trajectory. A 100-year projection allows for the evaluation of predictive uncertainty (due to soil property (parametric) uncertainty) and the inter-annual climate variability due to year to year differences in CESM climate forcings. After calibrating to measured borehole temperature data at this well-characterized site, soil property uncertainties are still significant and result in significant predictive uncertainties in projected active layer thickness and annual thaw depth-duration even with a specified future climate. Inter-annual climate variability in projected soil moisture content and Stefan number are small. A volume- and time-integrated Stefan number decreases significantly, indicating a shift in subsurface energy utilization in the future climate (latent heat of phase change becomes more important than heat conduction). Out of 10 soil parameters, ALT, annual thaw depth-duration, and Stefan number are highly dependent on mineral soil porosity, while annual mean liquid saturation of the active layer is highly dependent on the mineral soil residual saturation and moderately dependent on peat residual saturation. By comparing the ensemble statistics to the spread of projected permafrost metrics using different climate models, we quantify the relative magnitude of soil property uncertainty to another source of permafrost uncertainty, structural climate model uncertainty. We show that the effect of calibration-constrained uncertainty in soil properties, although significant, is less than that produced by structural climate model uncertainty for this location.

North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Böning, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra; Canuto, Vittorio M.; Cassou, Christophe; Chassignet, Eric; Coward, Andrew C.; Danilov, Sergey; Diansky, Nikolay; Drange, Helge; Farneti, Riccardo; Fernandez, Elodie; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Forget, Gael; Fujii, Yosuke; Griffies, Stephen M.; Gusev, Anatoly; Heimbach, Patrick; Howard, Armando; Ilicak, Mehmet; Jung, Thomas; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Kelley, Maxwell; Large, William G.; Leboissetier, Anthony; Lu, Jianhua; Madec, Gurvan; Marsland, Simon J.; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio; Nurser, A. J. George; Pirani, Anna; Romanou, Anastasia; Salas y Mélia, David; Samuels, Bonita L.; Scheinert, Markus; Sidorenko, Dmitry; Sun, Shan; Treguier, Anne-Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Valcke, Sophie; Voldoire, Aurore; Wang, Qiang; Yashayaev, Igor

2016-01-01

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments Phase II (CORE-II) . Part II; Inter-Annual to Decadal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Boening, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra;

China's water sustainability in the 21st century: a climate informed water risk assessment covering multi-sector water demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; Hao, Z.; Dong, L.; Ju, Q.; Wang, J.; Wang, S.

2013-08-01

China is facing a water resources crisis with growing concerns as to the reliable supply of water for agricultural, industrial and domestic needs. High inter-annual rainfall variability and increasing consumptive use across the country exacerbates the situation further and is a constraint on future development. For water sustainability, it is necessary to examine the differences in water demand and supply and their spatio-temporal distribution in order to quantify the dimensions of the water risk. Here, a detailed quantitative assessment of water risk as measured by the distribution of cumulated deficits for China is presented. Considering daily precipitation and temperature variability over fifty years and the current water demands, risk measures are developed to inform county level water deficits that account for both within year and across year variations in climate. We choose political rather than watershed boundaries since economic activity and water use are organized by county and the political process is best informed through that unit. The risk measures highlight North China Plain counties as highly water stressed. Regions with high water stress are typically the regions with high inter-annual variability in rainfall and now have depleted groundwater aquifers. The stress components due to agricultural, industrial and domestic water demands are illustrated separately to assess the vulnerability of particular sectors within the country to provide a basis for targeted policy analysis for reducing water stress.

Long-term fluctuations in circalunar Beach aggregations of the box jellyfish Alatina moseri in Hawaii, with links to environmental variability.

PubMed

Chiaverano, Luciano M; Holland, Brenden S; Crow, Gerald L; Blair, Landy; Yanagihara, Angel A

2013-01-01

The box jellyfish Alatina moseri forms monthly aggregations at Waikiki Beach 8-12 days after each full moon, posing a recurrent hazard to swimmers due to painful stings. We present an analysis of long-term (14 years: Jan 1998- Dec 2011) changes in box jellyfish abundance at Waikiki Beach. We tested the relationship of beach counts to climate and biogeochemical variables over time in the North Pacific Sub-tropical Gyre (NPSG). Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Change-Point Analysis (CPA), and General Regression Models (GRM) were used to characterize patterns in box jellyfish arrival at Waikiki Beach 8-12 days following 173 consecutive full moons. Variation in box jellyfish abundance lacked seasonality, but exhibited dramatic differences among months and among years, and followed an oscillating pattern with significant periods of increase (1998-2001; 2006-2011) and decrease (2001-2006). Of three climatic and 12 biogeochemical variables examined, box jellyfish showed a strong, positive relationship with primary production, >2 mm zooplankton biomass, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. It is clear that that the moon cycle plays a key role in synchronizing timing of the arrival of Alatina moseri medusae to shore. We propose that bottom-up processes, likely initiated by inter-annual regional climatic fluctuations influence primary production, secondary production, and ultimately regulate food availability, and are therefore important in controlling the inter-annual changes in box jellyfish abundance observed at Waikiki Beach.

Long-Term Fluctuations in Circalunar Beach Aggregations of the Box Jellyfish Alatina moseri in Hawaii, with Links to Environmental Variability

PubMed Central

Chiaverano, Luciano M.; Holland, Brenden S.; Crow, Gerald L.; Blair, Landy; Yanagihara, Angel A.

2013-01-01

The box jellyfish Alatina moseri forms monthly aggregations at Waikiki Beach 8–12 days after each full moon, posing a recurrent hazard to swimmers due to painful stings. We present an analysis of long-term (14 years: Jan 1998– Dec 2011) changes in box jellyfish abundance at Waikiki Beach. We tested the relationship of beach counts to climate and biogeochemical variables over time in the North Pacific Sub-tropical Gyre (NPSG). Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Change-Point Analysis (CPA), and General Regression Models (GRM) were used to characterize patterns in box jellyfish arrival at Waikiki Beach 8–12 days following 173 consecutive full moons. Variation in box jellyfish abundance lacked seasonality, but exhibited dramatic differences among months and among years, and followed an oscillating pattern with significant periods of increase (1998–2001; 2006–2011) and decrease (2001–2006). Of three climatic and 12 biogeochemical variables examined, box jellyfish showed a strong, positive relationship with primary production, >2 mm zooplankton biomass, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. It is clear that that the moon cycle plays a key role in synchronizing timing of the arrival of Alatina moseri medusae to shore. We propose that bottom-up processes, likely initiated by inter-annual regional climatic fluctuations influence primary production, secondary production, and ultimately regulate food availability, and are therefore important in controlling the inter-annual changes in box jellyfish abundance observed at Waikiki Beach. PMID:24194856

Simulating the hydrological impacts of inter-annual and seasonal variability in land use land cover change on streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taxak, A. K.; Ojha, C. S. P.

2017-12-01

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes within a watershed are recognised as an important factor affecting hydrological processes and water resources. LULC changes continuously not only in long term but also on the inter-annual and season level. Changes in LULC affects the interception, storage and moisture. A widely used approach in rainfall-runoff modelling through Land surface models (LSM)/ hydrological models is to keep LULC same throughout the model running period. In long term simulations where land use change take place during the run period, using a single LULC does not represent a true picture of ground conditions could result in stationarity of model responses. The present work presents a case study in which changes in LULC are incorporated by using multiple LULC layers. LULC for the study period were created using imageries from Landsat series, Sentinal, EO-1 ALI. Distributed, physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was modified to allow inclusion of LULC as a time varying variable just like climate. The Narayani basin was simulated with LULC, leaf area index (LAI), albedo and climate data for 1992-2015. The results showed that the model simulation with varied parametrization approach has a large improvement over the conventional fixed parametrization approach in terms of long-term water balance. The proposed modelling approach could improve hydrological modelling for applications like land cover change studies, water budget studies etc.

Relationships between rainfall and groundwater recharge in seasonally humid Benin: a comparative analysis of long-term hydrographs in sedimentary and crystalline aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotchoni, D. O. Valerie; Vouillamoz, Jean-Michel; Lawson, Fabrice M. A.; Adjomayi, Philippe; Boukari, Moussa; Taylor, Richard G.

2018-06-01

Groundwater is a vital source of freshwater throughout the tropics enabling access to safe water for domestic, agricultural and industrial purposes close to the point of demand. The sustainability of groundwater withdrawals is controlled, in part, by groundwater recharge, yet the conversion of rainfall into recharge remains inadequately understood, particularly in the tropics. This study examines a rare set of 19-25-year records of observed groundwater levels and rainfall under humid conditions (mean rainfall is 1,200 mm year-1) in three common geological environments of Benin and other parts of West Africa: Quaternary sands, Mio-Pliocene sandstone, and crystalline rocks. Recharge is estimated from groundwater-level fluctuations and employs values of specific yield derived from magnetic resonance soundings. Recharge is observed to occur seasonally and linearly in response to rainfall exceeding an apparent threshold of between 140 and 250 mm year-1. Inter-annual changes in groundwater storage correlate well to inter-annual rainfall variability. However, recharge varies substantially depending upon the geological environment: annual recharge to shallow aquifers of Quaternary sands amounts to as much as 40% of annual rainfall, whereas in deeper aquifers of Mio-Pliocene sandstone and weathered crystalline rocks, annual fractions of rainfall generating recharge are 13 and 4%, respectively. Differences are primarily attributed to the thickness of the unsaturated zone and to the lithological controls on the transmission and storage of rain-fed recharge.

Nonsense-mediated mRNA decay: inter-individual variability and human disease

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Lam Son; Wilkinson, Miles; Gecz, Jozef

2013-01-01

Nonsense-Mediated mRNA Decay (NMD) is a regulatory pathway that functions to degrade transcripts containing premature termination codons (PTCs) and to maintain normal transcriptome homeostasis. Nonsense and frameshift mutations that generate PTCs cause approximately one-third of all known human genetic diseases and thus NMD has a potentially important role in human disease. In genetic disorders in which the affected genes carry PTC-generating mutations, NMD acts as a double-edge sword. While it can benefit the patient by degrading PTC-containing mRNAs that encode detrimental, dominant-negative truncated proteins, it can also make the disease worse when a PTC-containing mRNA is degraded that encodes a mutant but still functional protein. There is evidence that the magnitude of NMD varies between individuals, which, in turn, has been shown to correlate with both clinical presentations and the patients’ responses to drugs that promote read-through of PTCs. In this review, we examine the evidence supporting the existence of inter-individual variability in NMD efficiency and discuss the genetic factors that underlie this variability. We propose that inter-individual variability in NMD efficiency is a common phenomenon in human populations and that an individual’s NMD efficiency should be taken into consideration when testing, developing, and making therapeutic decisions for diseases caused by genes harboring PTCs. PMID:24239855

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration along the North American east coast as influenced by multiple environmental changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qichun; Tian, Hanqin; Li, Xia

The North American east coast has experienced significant land-use and climate changes since the beginning of the 20th century. In this study, using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model 2.0 driven by time-series input data of land use, climate and atmospheric CO 2, we examined how these driving forces have affected the spatiotemporal trends and variability of evapotranspiration (ET) in this region during 1901–2008. Annual ET in the North American east coast during this period was 648.3 ± 38.6 mm/year and demonstrated an increasing trend. Factorial model simulations indicated that climate variability explained 76% of the inter-annual ET variability. Although land-usemore » change only explained 16% of the ET temporal variability, afforestation induced the upward trend of ET and increased annual ET by 12.8 mm/year. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 reduced annual ET by 0.84 mm, and its potential impacts under future atmospheric CO 2 levels could be much larger than estimates for the historical 1901–2008 period. Climate change determined the spatial pattern of ET changes across the entire study area, whereas land-use changes dramatically affected ET in watersheds with significant land conversions. In spite of the multiple benefits from afforestation, its impacts on water resources should be considered in future land-use policy making. As a result, elevated ET may also affect fresh water availability for the increasing social and economic water demands.« less

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration along the North American east coast as influenced by multiple environmental changes

DOE PAGES

Yang, Qichun; Tian, Hanqin; Li, Xia; ...

2014-08-08

The North American east coast has experienced significant land-use and climate changes since the beginning of the 20th century. In this study, using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model 2.0 driven by time-series input data of land use, climate and atmospheric CO 2, we examined how these driving forces have affected the spatiotemporal trends and variability of evapotranspiration (ET) in this region during 1901–2008. Annual ET in the North American east coast during this period was 648.3 ± 38.6 mm/year and demonstrated an increasing trend. Factorial model simulations indicated that climate variability explained 76% of the inter-annual ET variability. Although land-usemore » change only explained 16% of the ET temporal variability, afforestation induced the upward trend of ET and increased annual ET by 12.8 mm/year. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 reduced annual ET by 0.84 mm, and its potential impacts under future atmospheric CO 2 levels could be much larger than estimates for the historical 1901–2008 period. Climate change determined the spatial pattern of ET changes across the entire study area, whereas land-use changes dramatically affected ET in watersheds with significant land conversions. In spite of the multiple benefits from afforestation, its impacts on water resources should be considered in future land-use policy making. As a result, elevated ET may also affect fresh water availability for the increasing social and economic water demands.« less

Digoxin: use pattern in Estonia and bioavailability of the local market leader.

PubMed

Pähkla, R; Irs, A; Oselin, K; Rootslane, L

1999-10-01

In comparison with neighbouring Scandinavian countries, the use of digoxin in Estonia is high. The present study was carried out to determine the use pattern of digoxin in Estonia and bioavailability of the local market leader preparation in comparison with Lanoxin. Drug use data were evaluated from the annual reports of wholesale companies. For the bioequivalence study, a single-blind cross-over randomised two-way single-dose comparative bioavailability study was performed using 14 healthy volunteers. Digoxin concentrations in serum samples and urine were measured by chemiluminescent competitive immunoassay. The use of digoxin in Estonia has increased by 35% during the period 1994-97. The steady market leader was the local generic drug. No statistically significant differences were found in any pharmacokinetic parameter between the generic preparation and Lanoxin. All parameters showed considerable variability. The total amount of drug excreted was the parameter with lowest inter- individual variation. The present study indicates that the generic digoxin preparation studied is bioequivalent to Lanoxin. The increasing use of digoxin in Estonia is not caused by low bioavailability of the local market leader but by therapeutic traditions.

Wetland inventory and variability over the last two decades at a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

2011-12-01

Remote sensing techniques employing visible, infrared, and microwave observations offer varying success in estimating wetlands and inundation extent and in monitoring their natural and anthropogenic variations. Low spatial resolution (e.g., 30 km) limits detection to large wetlands but has the advantage of frequent coverage. High spatial resolution (e.g., 100 m), while providing more environmental information, suffers from poor temporal resolution, with observations for just high/low water or warm/cold seasons. Most existing wetland data sets are limited to a few regions, for specific times in the year. The only global inventories of wetland dynamics over a long period of time is derived from a remote-sensing technique employing a suite of complementary satellite observations: it uses passive microwave land-surface microwave emissivities, scatterometer responses, and visible and near infrared reflectances. Combining observations from different instruments makes it possible to capitalize on their complementary strengths, and to extract maximum information about inundation characteristics. The technique is globally applicable without any tuning for particular environments. The satellite data are used to calculate monthly-mean inundated fractions of equal-area grid cells (0.25°x0.25° at the equator), taking into account the contribution of vegetation to the passive microwave signal (Prigent et al., 2001, 2007). Several adjustments to the initial technique have been applied to account for changes in satellite instruments (Papa et al., 2010). The resulting data set now covers 1993-2008 and has been carefully evaluated. We will present the inter-annual variability of the water surface extents under different environments, and relate these variations to other hydrological variables such as river height, precipitation, water runoff, or Grace data. Natural wetlands are the world's largest methane source and dominate the inter-annual variability of atmospheric methane concentrations, with up to 90% of the global methane flux anomalies related to variations in the wetland extent from some estimation. Our data set quantifying inundation dynamics throughout the world's natural wetlands provides a unique opportunity to reduce uncertainties in the role of natural wetlands in the inter-annual variability of the growth rate of atmospheric methane. Papa, F., C. Prigent, C. Jimenez, F. Aires, and W. B. Rossow, Interannual variability of surface water extent at global scale, 1993-2004, JGR, 115, D12111, doi:10.1029/2009JD012674, 2010. Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews, Global inundation dynamics inferred from multiple satellite observations, 1993-2000, JGR, 112, D12107, doi:10.1029/2006JD007847, 2007. Prigent, C., E. Matthews, F. Aires, and W. B. Rossow, Remote sensing of global wetland dynamics with multiple satellite data sets, GRL, 28 , 4631-4634, 2001.

Relative importance of climate changes at different time scales on net primary productivity-a case study of the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China.

PubMed

Liu, Huiyu; Zhang, Mingyang; Lin, Zhenshan

2017-10-05

Climate changes are considered to significantly impact net primary productivity (NPP). However, there are few studies on how climate changes at multiple time scales impact NPP. With MODIS NPP product and station-based observations of sunshine duration, annual average temperature and annual precipitation, impacts of climate changes at different time scales on annual NPP, have been studied with EEMD (ensemble empirical mode decomposition) method in the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China, during 2000-2013. Moreover, with partial least squares regression (PLSR) model, the relative importance of climatic variables for annual NPP has been explored. The results show that (1) only at quasi 3-year time scale do sunshine duration and temperature have significantly positive relations with NPP. (2) Annual precipitation has no significant relation to NPP by direct comparison, but significantly positive relation at 5-year time scale, which is because 5-year time scale is not the dominant scale of precipitation; (3) the changes of NPP may be dominated by inter-annual variabilities. (4) Multiple time scales analysis will greatly improve the performance of PLSR model for estimating NPP. The variable importance in projection (VIP) scores of sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale, and precipitation at quasi 5-year time scale are greater than 0.8, indicating important for NPP during 2000-2013. However, sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale are much more important. Our results underscore the importance of multiple time scales analysis for revealing the relations of NPP to changing climate.

A multi-scale comparison of trait linkages to environmental and spatial variables in fish communities across a large freshwater lake.

PubMed

Strecker, Angela L; Casselman, John M; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jackson, Donald A; Ridgway, Mark S; Abrams, Peter A; Shuter, Brian J

2011-07-01

Species present in communities are affected by the prevailing environmental conditions, and the traits that these species display may be sensitive indicators of community responses to environmental change. However, interpretation of community responses may be confounded by environmental variation at different spatial scales. Using a hierarchical approach, we assessed the spatial and temporal variation of traits in coastal fish communities in Lake Huron over a 5-year time period (2001-2005) in response to biotic and abiotic environmental factors. The association of environmental and spatial variables with trophic, life-history, and thermal traits at two spatial scales (regional basin-scale, local site-scale) was quantified using multivariate statistics and variation partitioning. We defined these two scales (regional, local) on which to measure variation and then applied this measurement framework identically in all 5 study years. With this framework, we found that there was no change in the spatial scales of fish community traits over the course of the study, although there were small inter-annual shifts in the importance of regional basin- and local site-scale variables in determining community trait composition (e.g., life-history, trophic, and thermal). The overriding effects of regional-scale variables may be related to inter-annual variation in average summer temperature. Additionally, drivers of fish community traits were highly variable among study years, with some years dominated by environmental variation and others dominated by spatially structured variation. The influence of spatial factors on trait composition was dynamic, which suggests that spatial patterns in fish communities over large landscapes are transient. Air temperature and vegetation were significant variables in most years, underscoring the importance of future climate change and shoreline development as drivers of fish community structure. Overall, a trait-based hierarchical framework may be a useful conservation tool, as it highlights the multi-scaled interactive effect of variables over a large landscape.

[Spatio-temporal variation of drought condition during 1961 to 2012 based on composite index of meteorological drought in Altay region, China].

PubMed

Wu, Yan-feng; Bake, Batur; Li, Wei; Wei, Xiao-qin; Wozatihan, Jiayinaguli; Rasulov, Hamid

2015-02-01

Based on the daily meteorological data of seven stations in Altay region, China, this study investigated the temporal ( seasonal, inter-annual and decadal) and spatial variations of drought by using composite index of meteorological drought, as well as trend analysis, M-K abrupt analysis, wavelet analysis and interpolation tools in ArcGIS. The results indicated that the composite index of meteorological drought could reflect the drought condition in Altay region well. Although the frequency and the covered area of both inter-annual and seasonal droughts presented decreasing trends in the recent 52 a, the drought was still serious when considering the annual drought. The frequencies of inter-annual and spring droughts had no abrupt changes, whereas the frequencies of inter-summer, autumn and winter droughts had abrupt changes during the past 52 a. A significant periodic trend was also observed for the frequencies of inter-annual and seasonal droughts. The distribution of frequency and covered area suggested that the conditions of drought were heavily serious in Qinghe County, moderately serious in Altay City, Fuyun County, Buerjin County and Fuhai County, and slightly serious in Habahe County and Jimunai County.

Patterns and controls of inter-annual variability in the terrestrial carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcolla, Barbara; Rödenbeck, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro

2017-08-01

The terrestrial carbon fluxes show the largest variability among the components of the global carbon cycle and drive most of the temporal variations in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Understanding the environmental controls and trends of the terrestrial carbon budget is therefore essential to predict the future trajectories of the CO2 airborne fraction and atmospheric concentrations. In the present work, patterns and controls of the inter-annual variability (IAV) of carbon net ecosystem exchange (NEE) have been analysed using three different data streams: ecosystem-level observations from the FLUXNET database (La Thuile and 2015 releases), the MPI-MTE (model tree ensemble) bottom-up product resulting from the global upscaling of site-level fluxes, and the Jena CarboScope Inversion, a top-down estimate of surface fluxes obtained from observed CO2 concentrations and an atmospheric transport model. Consistencies and discrepancies in the temporal and spatial patterns and in the climatic and physiological controls of IAV were investigated between the three data sources. Results show that the global average of IAV at FLUXNET sites, quantified as the standard deviation of annual NEE, peaks in arid ecosystems and amounts to ˜ 120 gC m-2 y-1, almost 6 times more than the values calculated from the two global products (15 and 20 gC m-2 y-1 for MPI-MTE and the Jena Inversion, respectively). Most of the temporal variability observed in the last three decades of the MPI-MTE and Jena Inversion products is due to yearly anomalies, whereas the temporal trends explain only about 15 and 20 % of the variability, respectively. Both at the site level and on a global scale, the IAV of NEE is driven by the gross primary productivity and in particular by the cumulative carbon flux during the months when land acts as a sink. Altogether these results offer a broad view on the magnitude, spatial patterns and environmental drivers of IAV from a variety of data sources that can be instrumental to improve our understanding of the terrestrial carbon budget and to validate the predictions of land surface models.

Population pharmacokinetic study of memantine: effects of clinical and genetic factors.

PubMed

Noetzli, Muriel; Guidi, Monia; Ebbing, Karsten; Eyer, Stephan; Wilhelm, Laurence; Michon, Agnès; Thomazic, Valérie; Alnawaqil, Abdel-Messieh; Maurer, Sophie; Zumbach, Serge; Giannakopoulos, Panteleimon; von Gunten, Armin; Csajka, Chantal; Eap, Chin B

2013-03-01

Memantine, a frequently prescribed anti-dementia drug, is mainly eliminated unchanged by the kidneys, partly via tubular secretion. Considerable inter-individual variability in plasma concentrations has been reported. We aimed to investigate clinical and genetic factors influencing memantine disposition. A population pharmacokinetic study was performed including data from 108 patients recruited in a naturalistic setting. Patients were genotyped for common polymorphisms in renal cation transporters (SLC22A1/2/5, SLC47A1, ABCB1) and nuclear receptors (NR1I2, NR1I3, RXR, PPAR) involved in transporter expression. The average clearance was 5.2 L/h with a 27 % inter-individual variability (percentage coefficient of variation). Glomerular filtration rate (p = 0.007) and sex (p = 0.001) markedly influenced memantine clearance. NR1I2 rs1523130 was identified as the unique significant genetic covariate for memantine clearance (p = 0.006), with carriers of the NR1I2 rs1523130 CT/TT genotypes presenting a 16 % slower memantine elimination than carriers of the CC genotype. The better understanding of inter-individual variability of memantine disposition might be beneficial in the context of individual dose optimization.

A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Ritenberga, Olga; Sofiev, Mikhail; Siljamo, Pilvi; Saarto, Annika; Dahl, Aslog; Ekebom, Agneta; Sauliene, Ingrida; Shalaboda, Valentina; Severova, Elena; Hoebeke, Lucie; Ramfjord, Hallvard

2018-02-15

The paper suggests a methodology for predicting next-year seasonal pollen index (SPI, a sum of daily-mean pollen concentrations) over large regions and demonstrates its performance for birch in Northern and North-Eastern Europe. A statistical model is constructed using meteorological, geophysical and biological characteristics of the previous year). A cluster analysis of multi-annual data of European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) revealed several large regions in Europe, where the observed SPI exhibits similar patterns of the multi-annual variability. We built the model for the northern cluster of stations, which covers Finland, Sweden, Baltic States, part of Belarus, and, probably, Russia and Norway, where the lack of data did not allow for conclusive analysis. The constructed model was capable of predicting the SPI with correlation coefficient reaching up to 0.9 for some stations, odds ratio is infinitely high for 50% of sites inside the region and the fraction of prediction falling within factor of 2 from observations, stays within 40-70%. In particular, model successfully reproduced both the bi-annual cycle of the SPI and years when this cycle breaks down. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Search for Trends and Periodicities in Inter-hemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Difference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajesh, R.; Tiwari, R. K.

2018-02-01

Understanding the role of coupled solar and internal ocean dynamics on hemispheric climate variability is critical to climate modelling. We have analysed here 165 year long annual northern hemispheric (NH) and southern hemispheric (SH) sea surface temperature (SST) data employing spectral and statistical techniques to identify the imprints of solar and ocean-atmospheric processes, if any. We reconstructed the eigen modes of NH-SST and SH-SST to reveal non-linear oscillations superimposed on the monotonic trend. Our analysis reveals that the first eigen mode of NH-SST and SH-SST representing long-term trend of SST variability accounts for 15-23% variance. Interestingly, these components are matching with first eigen mode (99% variance) of the total solar irradiance (TSI) suggesting possible impact of solar activity on long-term SST variation. Furthermore, spectral analysis of SSA reconstructed signal revealed statistically significant periodicities of 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, 10 ± 1, 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years in both NH-SST and SH-SST data. The major harmonics centred at 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, and 10 ± 1 years are similar to solar periodicities and hence may represent solar forcing, while the components peaking at around 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years apparently falls in the frequency bands of El-Nino-Southern Oscillations linked to the oceanic internal processes. Our analyses also suggest evidence for the amplitude modulation of 9-11 and 21-22 year solar cycles, respectively, by 104 and 163 years in northern and southern hemispheric SST data. The absence of the above periodic oscillations in CO2 fails to suggest its role on observed inter-hemispheric SST difference. The cross-plot analysis also revealed strong influence of solar activity on linear trend of NH- and SH-SST in addition to small contribution from CO2. Our study concludes that (1) the long-term trends in northern and southern hemispheric SST variability show considerable synchronicity with cyclic warming and cooling phases and (2) the difference in cyclic forcing and non-linear modulations stemming from solar variability as a possible source of hemispheric SST differences.

The Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the West Greenland Current System in the Labrador Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ”, Nature, 459 [6] P. Brandt, F. Schott, A. Funk, and C. Sena Martins (2004). “Seasonal to inter- annual...variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its relationship with the net northward heat transport in the South Atlantic ”, Geophys...water formation, plays an important role in the Meridional Overturning Circulation . While the interior of the Labrador Sea, where the deepest convection

Spatial distributions ofC3 and C4 grass functional types in the U.S. great plains and their despendency on inter-annual climate variability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Grassland ecosystems in North America are primarily composed of C3 and C4 plant functional types (PFTs) with their relative cover varying spatially and temporally. This study used 500-m MODIS surface reflectance products (MOD09A1) from 2000 to 2009 to extract an NDVI time series of C3 and C4 PFTs in...

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke; Korhonen, Johanna; Yasuyuki Aono,

2016-01-01

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke A.; Korhonen, Johanna; Aono, Yasuyuki

2016-01-01

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality. PMID:27113125

Variability of Upper-Tropospheric Precipitable from Satellite and Model Reanalysis Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Iwai, Hisaki

1999-01-01

Numerous datasets have been used to quantify water vapor and its variability in the upper-troposphere from satellite and model reanalysis data. These investigations have shown some usefulness in monitoring seasonal and inter-annual variations in moisture either globally, with polar orbiting satellite data or global model output analysis, or regionally, with the higher spatial and temporal resolution geostationary measurements. The datasets are not without limitations, however, due to coverage or limited temporal sampling, and may also contain bias in their representation of moisture processes. The research presented in this conference paper inter-compares the NVAP, NCEP/NCAR and DAO reanalysis models, and GOES satellite measurements of upper-tropospheric,precipitable water for the period from 1988-1994. This period captures several dramatic swings in climate events associated with ENSO events. The data are evaluated for temporal and spatial continuity, inter-compared to assess reliability and potential bias, and analyzed in light of expected trends due to changes in precipitation and synoptic-scale weather features. This work is the follow-on to previous research which evaluated total precipitable water over the same period. The relationship between total and upper-level precipitable water in the datasets will be discussed as well.

Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

2018-05-01

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

Decadal-scale relationship between measurements of aerosols, land-use change, and fire over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, J. B.; Lecoeur, E.

2015-10-01

A simultaneous analysis of 13 years of remotely sensed data of land cover, fires, precipitation, and aerosols from the MODIS, TRMM, and MISR satellites and the AERONET network over Southeast Asia is performed, leading to a set of robust relationships between land-use change and fire being found on inter-annual and intra-annual scales over Southeast Asia, reflecting the heavy amounts of anthropogenic influence over land use change and fires in this region of the world. First, we find that fires occur annually, but with a considerable amount of variance in their onset, duration, and intensity from year to year, and from two separate regions within Southeast Asia from each other. This variability is already partially understood from previous works, including the impacts of both inter-annually and intra-annually occurring influences such as the Monsoon and El-Nino events, but yet there are other as of yet unknown influences that also are found to strongly influence the results. Second, we show that a simple regression-model of the land-cover, fire, and precipitation data can be used to recreate a robust representation of the timing and magnitude of measured AOD from multiple measurements sources of this region using either 8-day (better for onset and duration) or monthly based (better for magnitude) measurements, but not daily measurements. We find that the reconstructed AOD matches the timing and intensity from AERONET measurements to within 70 to 90 % and the timing and intensity of MISR measurements from to within 50 to 95 %. This is a unique finding in this part of the world, since could-covered regions are large, yet the robustness of the model is still capable of holding over many of these regions, where otherwise no fires are observed and hence no emissions source contribution to AOD would otherwise be thought to occur. Third, we determine that while Southeast Asia is a source region of such intense smoke emissions, that it is also impacted by transport of smoke from other regions as well. There are regions in northern Southeast Asia which have two annual AOD peaks, one during the local fire season, and the second smaller peak corresponding to a combination of some local smoke sources as well as transport of aerosols from fires in southern Southeast Asia, and possibly even from anthropogenic sources in South Asia. Conversely, we show that southern Southeast Asia is affected exclusively by its own local fire sources during its own local fire season. Overall, this study highlights the importance of taking into account a simultaneous use of land-use, fire, and precipitation for understanding the impacts of fires on the atmospheric loading and distribution of aerosols in Southeast Asia over both space and time.

Uncertainties and coupled error covariances in the CERA-20C, ECMWF's first coupled reanalysis ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xiangbo; Haines, Keith

2017-04-01

ECMWF has produced its first ensemble ocean-atmosphere coupled reanalysis, the 20th century Coupled ECMWF ReAnalysis (CERA-20C), with 10 ensemble members at 3-hour resolution. Here the analysis uncertainties (ensemble spread) of lower atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST), and their correlations, are quantified on diurnal, seasonal and longer timescales. The 2-m air temperature (T2m) spread is always larger than the SST spread at high-frequencies, but smaller on monthly timescales, except in deep convection areas, indicating increasing SST control at longer timescales. Spatially the T2m-SST ensemble correlations are the strongest where ocean mixed layers are shallow and can respond to atmospheric variability. Where atmospheric convection is strong with a deep precipitating boundary layer, T2m-SST correlations are greatly reduced. As the 20th-century progresses more observations become available, and ensemble spreads decline at all variability timescales. The T2m-SST correlations increase through the 20th-century, except in the tropics. As winds become better constrained over the oceans with less spread, T2m-SST become more correlated. In the tropics, strong ENSO-related inter-annual variability is found in the correlations, as atmospheric convection centres move. These ensemble spreads have been used to provide background errors for the assimilation throughout the reanalysis, have implications for the weights given to observations, and are a general measure of the uncertainties in the analysed product. Although cross boundary covariances are not currently used, they offer considerable potential for strengthening the ocean-atmosphere coupling in future reanalyses.

Inter-annual Variability in Tundra Phenology Captured with Digital Photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, M.; Vargas, S. A.; Tweedie, C. E.

2012-12-01

The need to improve multi-scale phenological monitoring of arctic terrestrial ecosystems has been a persistent research challenge. Although there has been a range of advances in remote sensing capacities over the past decade, these present costly, and sometimes logistically challenging and technically demanding solutions for arctic terrestrial ecosystems. In this poster and undergraduate research project, we demonstrate how seasonal and inter-annual variability in landscape phenology can be derived for multiple tundra ecosystems using a low-cost and low-tech kite aerial photography (KAP) system that has been developed as a contribution to the US Arctic Observing Network. Seasonal landscape phenology was observed over the Networked Info-Mechanical Systems (NIMS) grids (2 x 50 meters) located in Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska using imagery acquired with KAP and analyzed for a range of greenness indices. Preliminary results showed that the 2G-RB greenness index correlated the best with NDVI values calculated from ground based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. 2012 had the highest 2G-RB greenness index values for both Barrow and Atqasuk sites, which correlated well with NDVI values acquired from ground-based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. Wet vegetation types showed the most interannual variability at the Atqasuk site based on the 2G-RB greenness index while in Barrow the moist vegetation types showed the most interannual variability. These results show that vegetation indices similar to those acquired from hyperspectral remote sensing platforms can be derived using low-cost and low-tech techniques. Further analysis using these same techniques is required in order to link relatively small scale vegetation dynamics measured with KAP with those documented at large scales using satellite imagery.

Errors and uncertainties in regional climate simulations of rainfall variability over Tunisia: a multi-model and multi-member approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathalli, Bilel; Pohl, Benjamin; Castel, Thierry; Safi, Mohamed Jomâa

2018-02-01

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Tunisia (at 12 km spatial resolution) is analyzed in a multi-year (1992-2011) ten-member ensemble simulation performed using the WRF model, and a sample of regional climate hindcast simulations from Euro-CORDEX. RCM errors and skills are evaluated against a dense network of local rain gauges. Uncertainties arising, on the one hand, from the different model configurations and, on the other hand, from internal variability are furthermore quantified and ranked at different timescales using simple spread metrics. Overall, the WRF simulation shows good skill for simulating spatial patterns of rainfall amounts over Tunisia, marked by strong altitudinal and latitudinal gradients, as well as the rainfall interannual variability, in spite of systematic errors. Mean rainfall biases are wet in both DJF and JJA seasons for the WRF ensemble, while they are dry in winter and wet in summer for most of the used Euro-CORDEX models. The sign of mean annual rainfall biases over Tunisia can also change from one member of the WRF ensemble to another. Skills in regionalizing precipitation over Tunisia are season dependent, with better correlations and weaker biases in winter. Larger inter-member spreads are observed in summer, likely because of (1) an attenuated large-scale control on Mediterranean and Tunisian climate, and (2) a larger contribution of local convective rainfall to the seasonal amounts. Inter-model uncertainties are globally stronger than those attributed to model's internal variability. However, inter-member spreads can be of the same magnitude in summer, emphasizing the important stochastic nature of the summertime rainfall variability over Tunisia.

Inter-annual cascade effect on marine food web: A benthic pathway lagging nutrient supply to pelagic fish stock

PubMed Central

Fernandes, Lohengrin Dias de Almeida; Fagundes Netto, Eduardo Barros; Coutinho, Ricardo

2017-01-01

Currently, spatial and temporal changes in nutrients availability, marine planktonic, and fish communities are best described on a shorter than inter-annual (seasonal) scale, primarily because the simultaneous year-to-year variations in physical, chemical, and biological parameters are very complex. The limited availability of time series datasets furnishing simultaneous evaluations of temperature, nutrients, plankton, and fish have limited our ability to describe and to predict variability related to short-term process, as species-specific phenology and environmental seasonality. In the present study, we combine a computational time series analysis on a 15-year (1995–2009) weekly-sampled time series (high-resolution long-term time series, 780 weeks) with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to track non-seasonal changes in 10 potentially related parameters: sea surface temperature, nutrient concentrations (NO2, NO3, NH4 and PO4), phytoplankton biomass (as in situ chlorophyll a biomass), meroplankton (barnacle and mussel larvae), and fish abundance (Mugil liza and Caranx latus). Our data demonstrate for the first time that highly intense and frequent upwelling years initiate a huge energy flux that is not fully transmitted through classical size-structured food web by bottom-up stimulus but through additional ontogenetic steps. A delayed inter-annual sequential effect from phytoplankton up to top predators as carnivorous fishes is expected if most of energy is trapped into benthic filter feeding organisms and their larval forms. These sequential events can explain major changes in ecosystem food web that were not predicted in previous short-term models. PMID:28886162

Seasonal and Inter-annual Variation in Wood Production in Tropical Trees on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, is Related to Local Climate and Species Functional Traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cushman, K.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Kellner, J. R.; Wright, S. J.; Condit, R.; Detto, M.; Tribble, C. M.

2015-12-01

Tropical forest carbon budgets play a major role in global carbon dynamics, but the responses of tropical forests to current and future inter-annual climatic variation remains highly uncertain. Better predictions of future tropical forest carbon fluxes require an improved understanding of how different species of tropical trees respond to changes in climate at seasonal and inter-annual temporal scales. We installed dendrometer bands on a size-stratified sample of 2000 trees in old growth forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, a moist lowland forest that experiences an annual dry season of approximately four months. Tree diameters were measured at the beginning and end of the rainy season since 2008. Additionally, we recorded the canopy illumination level, canopy intactness, and liana coverage of all trees during each census. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate how tree growth was related to seasonal and interannual variation in local climate, tree condition, and species identity, and how species identity effects related to tree functional traits. Climatic variables considered included precipitation, solar radiation, soil moisture, and climatological water deficit, and were all calculated from high-quality on-site measurements. Functional traits considered included wood density, maximum adult stature, deciduousness, and drought tolerance. We found that annual wood production was positively related to water availability, with higher growth in wetter years. Species varied in their response to seasonal water availability, with some species showing more pronounced reduction of growth during the dry season when water availability is limited. Interspecific variation in seasonal and interannual growth patterns was related to life-history strategies and species functional traits. The finding of higher growth in wetter years is consistent with previous tree ring studies conducted on a small subset of species with reliable annual rings. Together with previous findings that seed production at this site is higher in sunnier (and drier) years, this suggests strong climate-related shifts in allocation. This study highlights the importance of considering forest species composition and potential allocational shifts when predicting carbon fluxes in response to local climate variation.

Using Digital Repeat Photography to Link Vegetative Phenology and Carbon Fluxes to Biotic and Abiotic Drivers in Three Semi-arid Systems (New Mexico, USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmark, A.; Litvak, M. E.; Collins, S. L.

2015-12-01

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems account for over 45% of global land cover. While mean annual carbon uptake in these ecosystems is relatively low, aridlands collectively store a significant amount of carbon. There is high inter- and intra-annual variability of plant growth in aridlands, depending largely on the timing and size of rainfall events. This variation is also of great significance, as the variation in annual semi-aridland carbon uptake accounts for ~39% of the inter-annual variability of the global terrestrial carbon sink, the largest percentage of any land cover type. Although arid and semi-arid ecosystems are of global importance, they are understudied. To better understand the drivers and variability of carbon uptake in these critical ecosystems, we utilize a six-year record of digital images (45,000+ images), carbon flux and meteorological data, soil water content, and associated ecological measurements from three eddy covariance tower sites in central New Mexico. These sites include a Chihuahuan Desert/short-grass Plains grassland site, and post-fire successional grassland site, and a creosote-encroached shrubland site, each of which have unique species compositions, carbon fluxes, and reactions to disturbance and resource addition. All images used are co-registered and corrected for radial lens distortions (when necessary) and greenness indices (2GRBi, gcc, and/or NDVI) are calculated for each scene's overall "canopy" and for individual species and plant functional types therein. At all three sites, camera-derived greenness is correlated to measured carbon uptake with fine resolution (R2 up to 0.8), capturing temporal and spatial variation usually not seen in satellite-based imagery. At sites with lower LAI, species-specific ROI's were more correlated to the site's measured carbon flux across shorter time scales. Understanding the biota comprising each image and its contribution to changing scene greenness at different times of year can lead to more accurate carbon flux predictions in semi-arid systems, with species-specific biotic constraints (maximum growth rate, lifespan, and seasonality), growth parameters (light availability, VPD, soil water content, and temperature) as well as community-wide abiotic drivers considered.

Rainfall extremes from TRMM data and the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzetto, Enrico; Marani, Marco

2017-04-01

A reliable quantification of the probability of weather extremes occurrence is essential for designing resilient water infrastructures and hazard mitigation measures. However, it is increasingly clear that the presence of inter-annual climatic fluctuations determines a substantial long-term variability in the frequency of occurrence of extreme events. This circumstance questions the foundation of the traditional extreme value theory, hinged on stationary Poisson processes or on asymptotic assumptions to derive the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We illustrate here, with application to daily rainfall, a new approach to extreme value analysis, the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD). The MEVD relaxes the above assumptions and is based on the whole distribution of daily rainfall events, thus allowing optimal use of all available observations. Using a global dataset of rain gauge observations, we show that the MEVD significantly outperforms the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, particularly for long average recurrence intervals and when small samples are available. The latter property suggests MEVD to be particularly suited for applications to satellite rainfall estimates, which only cover two decades, thus making extreme value estimation extremely challenging. Here we apply MEVD to the TRMM TMPA 3B42 product, an 18-year dataset of remotely-sensed daily rainfall providing a quasi-global coverage. Our analyses yield a global scale mapping of daily rainfall extremes and of their distributional tail properties, bridging the existing large gaps in ground-based networks. Finally, we illustrate how our global-scale analysis can provide insight into how properties of local rainfall regimes affect tail estimation uncertainty when using the GEV or MEVD approach. We find a dependence of the estimation uncertainty, for both the GEV- and MEV-based approaches, on the average annual number and on the inter-annual variability of rainy days. In particular, estimation uncertainty decreases 1) as the mean annual number of wet days increases, and 2) as the variability in the number of rainy days, expressed by its coefficient of variation, decreases. We tentatively explain this behavior in terms of the assumptions underlying the two approaches.

Inter-annual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in Late Twentieth Century and its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semi-direct Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, Katherine J; Hack, James J; Truesdale, John

A new high-resolution (0.9more » $$^{\\circ}$$x1.25$$^{\\circ}$$ in the horizontal) global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using the finite-volume configuration of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the latter part of twentieth century. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) wildfire monthly emissions dataset. Experiments forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4 with a T85 truncation (1.4$$^{\\circ}$$x1.4$$^{\\circ}$$) with prescribed twentieth century observed sea surface temperature, sea-ice and greenhouse gases reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol levels can induce significant regional climate variability on the inter-annual timescales. Regression analyses over tropical Atlantic and Africa reveal that increasing dust aerosols can cool the North African landmass and shift convection southwards from West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea in the spring season in the simulations. Further, we find that increasing carbonaceous aerosols emanating from the southwestern African savannas can cool the region significantly and increase the marine stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeast tropical Atlantic ocean by aerosol-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere above the low clouds. Experiments conducted with CAM4 coupled to a slab ocean model suggest that present day aerosols can shift the ITCZ southwards over the tropical Atlantic and can reduce the ocean mixed layer temperature beneath the increased marine stratocumulus clouds in the southeastern tropical Atlantic.« less

Volumetric glioma quantification: comparison of manual and semi-automatic tumor segmentation for the quantification of tumor growth.

PubMed

Odland, Audun; Server, Andres; Saxhaug, Cathrine; Breivik, Birger; Groote, Rasmus; Vardal, Jonas; Larsson, Christopher; Bjørnerud, Atle

2015-11-01

Volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is now widely available and routinely used in the evaluation of high-grade gliomas (HGGs). Ideally, volumetric measurements should be included in this evaluation. However, manual tumor segmentation is time-consuming and suffers from inter-observer variability. Thus, tools for semi-automatic tumor segmentation are needed. To present a semi-automatic method (SAM) for segmentation of HGGs and to compare this method with manual segmentation performed by experts. The inter-observer variability among experts manually segmenting HGGs using volumetric MRIs was also examined. Twenty patients with HGGs were included. All patients underwent surgical resection prior to inclusion. Each patient underwent several MRI examinations during and after adjuvant chemoradiation therapy. Three experts performed manual segmentation. The results of tumor segmentation by the experts and by the SAM were compared using Dice coefficients and kappa statistics. A relatively close agreement was seen among two of the experts and the SAM, while the third expert disagreed considerably with the other experts and the SAM. An important reason for this disagreement was a different interpretation of contrast enhancement as either surgically-induced or glioma-induced. The time required for manual tumor segmentation was an average of 16 min per scan. Editing of the tumor masks produced by the SAM required an average of less than 2 min per sample. Manual segmentation of HGG is very time-consuming and using the SAM could increase the efficiency of this process. However, the accuracy of the SAM ultimately depends on the expert doing the editing. Our study confirmed a considerable inter-observer variability among experts defining tumor volume from volumetric MRIs. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2014.

How well do CMIP5 Climate Models Reproduce the Hydrologic Cycle of the Colorado River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, J.; Mascaro, G.

2017-12-01

The Colorado River, which is the primary source of water for nearly 40 million people in the arid Southwestern states of the United States, has been experiencing an extended drought since 2000, which has led to a significant reduction in water supply. As the water demands increase, one of the major challenges for water management in the region has been the quantification of uncertainties associated with streamflow predictions in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) under potential changes of future climate. Hence, testing the reliability of model predictions in the CRB is critical in addressing this challenge. In this study, we evaluated the performances of 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) and 4 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistical properties of the hydrologic cycle in the CRB. We evaluated the water balance components at four nested sub-basins along with the inter-annual and intra-annual changes of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), runoff (R) and temperature (T) from 1979 to 2005. Most of the models captured the net water balance fairly well in the most-upstream basin but simulated a weak hydrological cycle in the evaporation channel at the downstream locations. The simulated monthly variability of P had different patterns, with correlation coefficients ranging from -0.6 to 0.8 depending on the sub-basin and the models from same parent institution clustering together. Apart from the most-upstream sub-basin where the models were mainly characterized by a negative seasonal bias in SON (of up to -50%), most of them had a positive bias in all seasons (of up to +260%) in the other three sub-basins. The models, however, captured the monthly variability of T well at all sites with small inter-model variabilities and a relatively similar range of bias (-7 °C to +5 °C) across all seasons. Mann-Kendall test was applied to the annual P and T time-series where majority of the models and all observed products displayed nonsignificant trends for annual P. In contrast, more than half of the models exhibited significant trend with annual T as the observations. The results of this work provide support when selecting climate models for impact studies required to develop policies and plan investments aimed at ensuring water sustainability in the CRB.

Simulated permafrost soil thermal dynamics during 1960-2009 in eight offline processed-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, S.; Gouttevin, I.; Krinner, G.; Ciais, P.

2013-12-01

Permafrost soil thermal dynamics not only determine the status of permafrost, but also have large impacts on permafrost organic carbon decomposition. Here, we used eight processed based models that participated in the Vulnerability Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (RCN) project to investigate: (1) the trends in soil temperature at different depths over the northern hemisphere permafrost region during the past five decades, and (2) which factors drive trends and inter-annual variability of permafrost soil temperature? The simulated annual soil temperature at 20cm increases by ~0.02 °C per year from 1960 to 2009 (ranging from 0.00 °C per year in CoLM to 0.04 °C per year in ISBA). Most models simulated more warming of soil in spring and winter than in summer and autumn, although there were different seasonal trends in different models. Trends in soil temperature decrease with soil depth in all models. To quantify the contributions of various factors (air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation etc.) to trends and inter-annual variation in soil temperature, we ran offline models with detrended air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation, respectively. Our results suggest that both annual air temperature and downward longwave radiation significantly correlate with annual soil temperature. Moreover, trend in air temperature and downward longwave radiation contribute 30% and 60% to trends in soil temperature (0 - 200cm), respectively, during the period 1960-2009. Spatial distributions of trend in annual soil temperature at 20cm from R01 simulations of (a) CLM4, (b) CoLM, (c) ISBA, (d) JULES, (e) LPJ_GUESS, (f) ORCHIDEE, (g) UVic and (h) UW-VIC during the period 1960-2009.

Hydroclimatic influences on non-stationary transit time distributions in a boreal headwater catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peralta-Tapia, A.; Soulsby, C.; Tetzlaff, D.; Sponseller, R.; Bishop, K.; Laudon, H.

2016-12-01

Understanding how water moves through catchments - from the time it enters as precipitation to when it exits via streamflow - is of fundamental importance to understanding hydrological and biogeochemical processes. A basic descriptor of this routing is the Transit Time Distribution (TTD) which is derived from the input-output behavior of conservative tracers, the mean of which represents the average time elapsed between water molecules entering and exiting a flow system. In recent decades, many transit time studies have been conducted, but few of these have focused on snow-dominated catchments. We assembled a 10-year time series of isotopic data (δ18O and δ2H) for precipitation and stream water to estimate the characteristics of the transit time distribution in a boreal catchment in northern Sweden. We applied lumped parameter models using a gamma distribution to calculate the Mean Transit Time (MTT) of water over the entire period of record and to evaluate how inter-annual differences in transit times relate to hydroclimatic variability. The best fit MTT for the complete 10-year period was 650 days (Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency = 0.65), while the best fit inter-annual MTT ranged from 300 days up to 1200 days. Whilst there was a weak negative correlation between mean annual total precipitation and the annual MTT, this relationship was stronger (r2 = 0.53, p = 0.02) for the annual rain water input. This strong connection between the MTT and annual rainfall, rather than snowmelt, has strong implications for understanding future hydrological and biogeochemical processes in boreal regions, given that predicted warmer winters would translate into a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain and thus shorter MTT in catchments. Such a change could have direct implications for the export of solutes and pollutants.

What can high frequency data tell us about hydrological and biogeochemical processes in a permafrost-underlain watershed that we do not already know?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, S. K.; Shatilla, N. J.; Tang, W.

2017-12-01

Permafrost and frozen ground play a key role in the delivery of water and solutes from the landscape to the stream, and in biogeochemical cycling by acting as a cold season or semi-permanent aquitard. Conceptual models of permafrost hydrology have been well defined for over 40 years, yet renewed interest in the face of global climate change and rapid degradation of frozen ground has provided an opportunity to revisit previous paradigms. At the same time, new instruments and techniques to understand coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes have emerged, providing a more nuanced view of northern systems. High-frequency sub-hourly measures of flows, water quality and biogeochemical parameters such as salinity and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), along with eddy covariance systems provide considerable data, yet using this data to reveal new process information remains challenging. In this presentation, multi-year high frequency data sets of water, solute and carbon fluxes from Granger Creek, an instrumented alpine watershed with discontinuous permafrost within the Wolf Creek Research Basin, Yukon Territory, Canada, will be shown. While several decades of hydrometric and geochemical data exist for Granger Creek, inter-annual variability is considerable and makes evaluating long-term trends difficult. Insights derived from high-frequency sub-hourly salinity, CDOM and flow over recent years reveal that hysteresis loops among variables can be used to assess changing connectivity and flow paths as both magnitude and direction of loops can be used to infer landscape-scale linkages. These patterns highlight spatial connections among landscape units not previously observed, and identify periods when hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are coupled. Evaluation of these patterns at the headwater scale provides alternate hypotheses for how permafrost landscapes will respond to a changing climate.

Numerical modelling assessment of climate-change impacts and mitigation measures on the Querença-Silves coastal aquifer (Algarve, Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hugman, Rui; Stigter, Tibor; Costa, Luis; Monteiro, José Paulo

2017-11-01

Predicted changes in climate will lead to seawater intrusion in the Querença-Silves (QS) coastal aquifer (south Portugal) during the coming century if the current water-resource-management strategy is maintained. As for much of the Mediterranean, average rainfall is predicted to decrease along with increasing seasonal and inter-annual variability and there is a need to understand how these changes will affect the sustainable use of groundwater resources. A density-coupled flow and transport model of the QS was used to simulate an ensemble of climate, water-use and adaptation scenarios from 2010 to 2099 taking into account intra- and inter-annual variability in recharge and groundwater use. By considering several climate models, bias correction and recharge calculation methods, a degree of uncertainty was included. Changes in rainfall regimes will have an immediate effect on groundwater discharge; however, the effect on saltwater intrusion is attenuated by the freshwater-saltwater interfaces' comparatively slow rate of movement. Comparing the effects of adaptation measures demonstrates that the extent of intrusion in the QS is controlled by the long-term water budget, as the effectiveness of both demand and supply oriented measures is proportional to the change in water budget, and that to maintain the current position, average groundwater discharge should be in the order of 50 × 106 m3 yr-1.

From egg production to recruits: Connectivity and inter-annual variability in the recruitment patterns of European anchovy in the northwestern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ospina-Alvarez, Andres; Catalán, Ignacio A.; Bernal, Miguel; Roos, David; Palomera, Isabel

2015-11-01

We show the application of a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model (SEIBM) to understand the recruitment process of European anchovy. The SEIBM is applied to simulate the effects of inter-annual variability in parental population spawning behavior and intensity, and ocean dynamics, on the dispersal of eggs and larvae from the spawning area in the Gulf of Lions (GoL) towards the coastal nursery areas in the GoL and Catalan Sea (northwestern Mediterranean Sea). For each of seven years (2003-2009), we initialize the SEIBM with the real positions of anchovy eggs during the spawning peak, from an acoustics-derived eggs production model. We analyze the effect of spawners' distribution, timing of spawning, and oceanographic conditions on the connectivity patterns, growth, dispersal distance and late-larval recruitment (14 mm larva recruits, R14) patterns. The area of influence of the Rhône river plume was identified as having a high probability of larval recruitment success (64%), but up to 36% of R14 larvae end up in the Catalan Coast. We demonstrate that the spatial paths of larvae differ dramatically from year to year, and suggest potential offshore nursery grounds. We showed that our simulations are coherent with existing recruitment proxies and therefore open new possibilities for fisheries management.

Seasonal and Inter-annual Variability in Modeled Larval Dispersal and Population Connectivity of Blue Crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyory, J.; Jones, B.; Ko, D. S.; Taylor, C.

2016-02-01

Larval dispersal trajectories and their resulting population connectivity patterns are known to be key drivers of population dynamics for many marine organisms. However, few studies to date have examined the temporal variability in population connectivity. Here, we model the larval dispersal and population connectivity of blue crabs in the northern Gulf of Mexico from 2003-2012 and use network analyses to understand how they vary over seasonal and inter-annual scales. We found that in all years, the Mississippi River Delta is a barrier to dispersal. Few larvae cross it and settle successfully. In some years (2004, 2007, 2008, and 2009), 1-2 locations (Adams Bay and Chandeleur Sound) had high (> 0.3) betweenness centrality. These locations are likely to be important for maintaining population connectivity in the region, since more than 30% of larval pathways are predicted to pass through them. Connectivity matrices suggest that some estuaries have consistently high larval retention rates. These include West Cote Blanche Bay, Chandeleur Sound, and, in some years, Pensacola Bay and Atchafalaya Bay. Within the spawning season, we observe a decline in average vertex degree and average source strength in every year. This suggests that seasonal declines in the strength of along-shore currents produce consistent reductions in population connectivity through the spawning season.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Solar modulation of flood frequency in Central Europe during spring and summer on inter-annual to millennial time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, M.; Muscheler, R.; Brauer, A.

2015-10-01

Solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research. We analyze solar forcing of flood frequency in Central Europe on inter-annual to millennial time-scales using daily discharge data of River Ammer (southern Germany) back to AD 1926 and revisiting the 5500 year flood layer time-series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee. Flood frequency in the discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity during solar cycles 16-23 (r = -0.47, p < 0.0001, n = 73). Flood layer frequency (n = 1501) in the sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variability and significant correlations to 10Be fluxes from a Greenland ice core (r = 0.45, p < 0.0001) and 14C production rates (r =0.36, p < 0.0001), proxy records of solar activity. Flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. These correlations between flood frequency and solar activity might provide empirical support for the solar top-down mechanism expected to modify the mid-latitude storm tracks over Europe by model studies. A lag of flood frequency responses in the Ammer discharge record to changes in solar activity of about one to three years could be explained by a modelled ocean-atmosphere feedback delaying the atmospheric reaction to solar activity variations up to a few years.

Phenology and growth adjustments of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) to photoperiod and climate variability

PubMed Central

Legros, S.; Mialet-Serra, I.; Caliman, J.-P.; Siregar, F. A.; Clément-Vidal, A.; Dingkuhn, M.

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Oil palm flowering and fruit production show seasonal maxima whose causes are unknown. Drought periods confound these rhythms, making it difficult to analyse or predict dynamics of production. The present work aims to analyse phenological and growth responses of adult oil palms to seasonal and inter-annual climatic variability. Methods Two oil palm genotypes planted in a replicated design at two sites in Indonesia underwent monthly observations during 22 months in 2006–2008. Measurements included growth of vegetative and reproductive organs, morphology and phenology. Drought was estimated from climatic water balance (rainfall – potential evapotranspiration) and simulated fraction of transpirable soil water. Production history of the same plants for 2001–2005 was used for inter-annual analyses. Key Results Drought was absent at the equatorial Kandista site (0°55′N) but the Batu Mulia site (3°12′S) had a dry season with variable severity. Vegetative growth and leaf appearance rate fluctuated with drought level. Yield of fruit, a function of the number of female inflorescences produced, was negatively correlated with photoperiod at Kandista. Dual annual maxima were observed supporting a recent theory of circadian control. The photoperiod-sensitive phases were estimated at 9 (or 9 + 12 × n) months before bunch maturity for a given phytomer. The main sensitive phase for drought effects was estimated at 29 months before bunch maturity, presumably associated with inflorescence sex determination. Conclusion It is assumed that seasonal peaks of flowering in oil palm are controlled even near the equator by photoperiod response within a phytomer. These patterns are confounded with drought effects that affect flowering (yield) with long time-lag. Resulting dynamics are complex, but if the present results are confirmed it will be possible to predict them with models. PMID:19748909

Inter-annual rainfall variability in the eastern Antilles and coupling with the regional and intra-seasonal circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jury, Mark R.

2016-11-01

Climate variability in the eastern Antilles island chain is analyzed via principal component analysis of high-resolution monthly rainfall in the period 1981-2013. The second mode reflecting higher rainfall in July-October season between Martinique and Grenada is the focus of this study. Higher rainfall corresponds with a weakened trade wind and boundary current along the southern edge of the Caribbean. This quells the coastal upwelling off Venezuela and builds the freshwater plume east of Trinidad. There is corresponding upper easterly wind flow that intensifies passing tropical waves. During a storm event over the Antilles on 4-5 October 2010, there was inflow from east of Guyana where low salinity and high sea temperatures enable surplus latent heat fluxes. A N-S convective rain band forms ˜500 km east of the cyclonic vortex. Many features at the weather timescale reflect the seasonal correlation and composite difference maps and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of oceanic inter-basin transfers.

Influence of precipitation and crop germination on resource selection by mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in southwest Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carrollo, Emily M.; Johnson, Heather E.; Fischer, Justin W.; Hammond, Matthew; Dorsey, Patricia D.; Anderson, Charles; Vercauteren, Kurt C.; Walter, W. David

2017-01-01

Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations in the western United States provide many benefits to local economies but can also cause considerable damage to agriculture, particularly damage to lucrative crops. Limited information exists to understand resource selection of mule deer in response to annual variation in crop rotation and climatic conditions. We tested the hypothesis that mule deer select certain crops, and in particular sunflower, based on annual climatic variability. Our objective was to use movements, estimates of home range, and resource selection analysis to identify resources selected by mule deer. We used annually-derived crop-specific datasets along with Global Positioning System collars to monitor 14 mule deer in an agricultural area near public lands in southwestern Colorado, USA. We estimated home ranges for two winter seasons that ranged between 7.68 and 9.88 km2, and for two summer seasons that ranged between 5.51 and 6.24 km2. Mule deer selected areas closer to forest and alfalfa for most periods during 2012, but selected areas closer to sunflower in a majority of periods during 2013. Considerable annual variation in climate patterns and precipitation levels appeared to influence selection by mule deer because of variability in crop rotation and success of germination of specific crops.

Influence of Precipitation and Crop Germination on Resource Selection by Mule Deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in Southwest Colorado.

PubMed

Carrollo, Emily M; Johnson, Heather E; Fischer, Justin W; Hammond, Matthew; Dorsey, Patricia D; Anderson, Charles; Vercauteren, Kurt C; Walter, W David

2017-11-09

Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations in the western United States provide many benefits to local economies but can also cause considerable damage to agriculture, particularly damage to lucrative crops. Limited information exists to understand resource selection of mule deer in response to annual variation in crop rotation and climatic conditions. We tested the hypothesis that mule deer select certain crops, and in particular sunflower, based on annual climatic variability. Our objective was to use movements, estimates of home range, and resource selection analysis to identify resources selected by mule deer. We used annually-derived crop-specific datasets along with Global Positioning System collars to monitor 14 mule deer in an agricultural area near public lands in southwestern Colorado, USA. We estimated home ranges for two winter seasons that ranged between 7.68 and 9.88 km 2 , and for two summer seasons that ranged between 5.51 and 6.24 km 2 . Mule deer selected areas closer to forest and alfalfa for most periods during 2012, but selected areas closer to sunflower in a majority of periods during 2013. Considerable annual variation in climate patterns and precipitation levels appeared to influence selection by mule deer because of variability in crop rotation and success of germination of specific crops.

Black Sea spectral bio-optical models based on satellite data and their applications for assessment of spatial and temporal variability in waters transparency, chlorophyll a content and primary production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churilova, T.; Suslin, V.

2012-04-01

Satellite observations of ocean color provide a unique opportunity in oceanography to assess productivity of the sea on different spatial and temporal scales. However it has been shown that the standard SeaWiFS algorithm generally overestimates summer chlorophyll concentration and underestimates pigment content during spring phytoplankton bloom in comparison with in situ measurements. It is required to develop regional algorithms which are based on biooptical characteristics typical for the Sea and consequently could be used for correct transformation of spectral features of water-leaving radiance to chlorophyll a concentrations (Chl), light absorption features of suspended and dissolved organic matter (CDM), downwelling light attenuation coefficient/euphotic zone depth (PAR1%) and rate of primary synthesis of organic substances (PP). The numerous measurements of light absorption spectra of phytoplankton, non-algal particles and coloured dissolved organic matter carried out since 1996 in different seasons and regions of the Black Sea allowed to make a parameterization of the light absorption by all optically active components. Taking into account regional peculiarities of the biooptical parameters, their difference between seasons, shallow and deep-waters, their depth-dependent variability within photosynthetic zone regional spectral models for estimation of chlorophyll a concentration (Chl Model), colored dissolved and suspended organic matter absorption (CDM Model), downwelling irradiance (PAR Model) and primary production (PP Model) have been developed based on satellite data. Test of validation of models showed appropriate accuracy of the models. The developed models have been applied for estimation of spatial/temporal variability of chlorophyll a, dissolved organic matter concentrations, waters transparency, euphotic zone depth and primary production based on SeaWiFS data. Two weeks averaged maps of spatial distribution of these parameters have been composed for period from 1998 to 2009 (most of them presented on site http://blackseacolor.com/browser3.html). Comparative analysis of long-term series (since 1998) of these parameters with subsurface water temperature (SST) and solar radiance of the sea surface (PAR-0m) revealed the key factors determining the seasonal and inter-annual variations of Chl, PAR1%, CDM, PP. The seasonal dynamics of these parameters were more pronounced compared with inter-annual variability. The later was related to climate effect. In deep-waters region relatively lower SST during cold winters were forcing more intensive winter-spring phytoplankton bloom. In north-western shelf inter-annual variability in river (Danube) run off, which was related to climate change as well, determined year-to-year changing in Chl, CDM, PAR1%, and PP.

Effects of modeled tropical sea surface temperature variability on coral reef bleaching predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Hooidonk, R.; Huber, M.

2012-03-01

Future widespread coral bleaching and subsequent mortality has been projected using sea surface temperature (SST) data derived from global, coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs). While these models possess fidelity in reproducing many aspects of climate, they vary in their ability to correctly capture such parameters as the tropical ocean seasonal cycle and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Such weaknesses most likely reduce the accuracy of predicting coral bleaching, but little attention has been paid to the important issue of understanding potential errors and biases, the interaction of these biases with trends, and their propagation in predictions. To analyze the relative importance of various types of model errors and biases in predicting coral bleaching, various intra- and inter-annual frequency bands of observed SSTs were replaced with those frequencies from 24 GCMs 20th century simulations included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. Subsequent thermal stress was calculated and predictions of bleaching were made. These predictions were compared with observations of coral bleaching in the period 1982-2007 to calculate accuracy using an objective measure of forecast quality, the Peirce skill score (PSS). Major findings are that: (1) predictions are most sensitive to the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability in the ENSO 24-60 months frequency band and (2) because models tend to understate the seasonal cycle at reef locations, they systematically underestimate future bleaching. The methodology we describe can be used to improve the accuracy of bleaching predictions by characterizing the errors and uncertainties involved in the predictions.

On the role of snow cover ablation variability and synoptic-scale atmospheric forcings at the sub-basin scale within the Great Lakes watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suriano, Zachary J.

2018-02-01

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions play a critical role in determining the frequency and intensity of snow cover ablation in the mid-latitudes. Using a synoptic classification technique, distinct regional circulation patterns influencing the Great Lakes basin of North America are identified and examined in conjunction with daily snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. This approach allows for the influence of each synoptic weather type on ablation to be examined independently and for the monthly and inter-annual frequencies of the weather types to be tracked over time. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of snow cover and the relatively large geographic extent of the Great Lakes basin, snow cover ablation events and the synoptic-scale patterns that cause them are examined for each of the Great Lakes watershed's five primary sub-basins to understand the regional complexities of snow cover ablation variability. Results indicate that while many synoptic weather patterns lead to ablation across the basins, they can be generally grouped into one of only a few primary patterns: southerly flow, high-pressure overhead, and rain-on-snow patterns. As expected, the patterns leading to ablation are not necessarily consistent between the five sub-basins due to the seasonality of snow cover and the spatial variability of temperature, moisture, wind, and incoming solar radiation associated with the particular synoptic weather types. Significant trends in the inter-annual frequency of ablation-inducing synoptic types do exist for some sub-basins, indicating a potential change in the hydrologic impact of these patterns over time.

Benchmarking child and adolescent mental health organizations.

PubMed

Brann, Peter; Walter, Garry; Coombs, Tim

2011-04-01

This paper describes aspects of the child and adolescent benchmarking forums that were part of the National Mental Health Benchmarking Project (NMHBP). These forums enabled participating child and adolescent mental health organizations to benchmark themselves against each other, with a view to understanding variability in performance against a range of key performance indicators (KPIs). Six child and adolescent mental health organizations took part in the NMHBP. Representatives from these organizations attended eight benchmarking forums at which they documented their performance against relevant KPIs. They also undertook two special projects designed to help them understand the variation in performance on given KPIs. There was considerable inter-organization variability on many of the KPIs. Even within organizations, there was often substantial variability over time. The variability in indicator data raised many questions for participants. This challenged participants to better understand and describe their local processes, prompted them to collect additional data, and stimulated them to make organizational comparisons. These activities fed into a process of reflection about their performance. Benchmarking has the potential to illuminate intra- and inter-organizational performance in the child and adolescent context.

The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Tietsche, S.; Collins, M.; Goessling, H. F.; Guemas, V.; Guillory, A.; Hurlin, W. J.; Ishii, M.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Sigmond, M.; Tatebe, H.; Hawkins, E.

2015-10-01

Recent decades have seen significant developments in seasonal-to-interannual timescale climate prediction capabilities. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had not been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Here we present a description of the archived data set (which is available at the British Atmospheric Data Centre) and an update of the project's results. Although designed to address Arctic predictability, this data set could also be used to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate variability on these timescales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Fire, flow and dynamic equilibrium in stream macroinvertebrate communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arkle, R.S.; Pilliod, D.S.; Strickler, K.

2010-01-01

The complex effects of disturbances on ecological communities can be further complicated by subsequent perturbations within an ecosystem. We investigated how wildfire interacts with annual variations in peak streamflow to affect the stability of stream macroinvertebrate communities in a central Idaho wilderness, USA. We conducted a 4-year retrospective analysis of unburned (n = 7) and burned (n = 6) catchments, using changes in reflectance values (??NBR) from satellite imagery to quantify the percentage of each catchment's riparian and upland vegetation that burned at high and low severity. For this wildland fire complex, increasing riparian burn severity and extent were associated with greater year-to-year variation, rather than a perennial increase, in sediment loads, organic debris, large woody debris (LWD) and undercut bank structure. Temporal changes in these variables were correlated with yearly peak flow in burned catchments but not in unburned reference catchments, indicating that an interaction between fire and flow can result in decreased habitat stability in burned catchments. Streams in more severely burned catchments exhibited increasingly dynamic macroinvertebrate communities and did not show increased similarity to reference streams over time. Annual variability in macroinvertebrates was attributed, predominantly, to the changing influence of sediment, LWD, riparian cover and organic debris, as quantities of these habitat components fluctuated annually depending on burn severity and annual peak streamflows. These analyses suggest that interactions among fire, flow and stream habitat may increase inter-annual habitat variability and macroinvertebrate community dynamics for a duration approaching the length of the historic fire return interval of the study area. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

PubMed Central

Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

2015-01-01

Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32–39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability. PMID:25609225

Investigating the biophysical controls on mass and energy cycling in Southwestern US ecosystems using the New Mexico Elevation Gradient of flux towers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krofcheck, D. J.; Morillas, L.; Litvak, M. E.

2014-12-01

Drylands and semi-arid ecosystems cover over 45% of the global landmass. These biomes have been shown to be extremely sensitive to changes in climate, specifically decreases in precipitation and increases in air temperature. Therefore, inter-annual variability in climate has the potential to dramatically impact the carbon budget at regional and global scales. In the Southwestern US, we are in a unique position to investigate these relationships by leveraging eight years of data from the New Mexico Elevation Gradient (NMEG), eight flux towers that span six representative biomes across the semi-arid Southwest. From C4 desert grasslands to subalpine mixed conifer forests, the NMEG flux towers use identical instrumentsand processing, and afford a unique opportunity to explore patterns in biome-specific ecosystem processes and climate sensitivity. Over the last eight years the gradient has experienced climatic variability that span from wet years to an episodic megadrought. Here we report the effects of this extreme inter-annual variability in climate on the ability of semi-arid ecosystems to cycle and store energy and carbon. We also investigated biome-specific patterns of ecosystem light and water use efficiency during a series of wet and dry years, and how these vary in response to air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, evaporative fraction, and precipitation. Our initial results suggest that significant drought reduced the maximum ecosystem assimilation of carbon most at the C4 grasslands, creosote shrublands, juniper savannas, and ponderosa pine forests, with 60%, 50%, 35%, and 50% reduction respectively, relative to a wet year. Ecosystem light use efficiency tends to show the highest maximum values at the low elevation sites as a function of water availability, with the highest annual values consistently at the middle elevation and ponderosa pine sites. Water use efficiency was strongly biome dependent with the middle elevation sites showing the highest efficiencies, and the greatest within year variability at the lower elevation sites, with strong sensitivities to vapor pressure deficit. By quantifying the biome-specific ecosystem processes and functional responses, this network provides valuable insight about how vulnerable this range of semi-arid ecosystems is to future climate scenarios.

Modelling carbon and water fluxes at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balzarolo, M.; Balsamo, G.; Barbu, A.; Boussetta, S.; Calvet, J.-C.; Chevallier, F.; de Vries, J.; Kullmann, L.; Lafont, S.; Maignan, F.; Papale, D.; Poulter, B.

2012-04-01

Modelling and predicting seasonal and inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes play an important role in understanding processes and interactions between plant-atmosphere and climate. Testing the model's capability to simulate fluxes across and within the ecosystems against eddy covariance data is essential. Thanks to the existing eddy covariance (EC) networks (e.g FLUXNET), where CO2 and water exchanges are continuously measured, it is now possible to verify the model's goodness at global scale. This paper reports the outcomes of the verification activities of the Land Carbon Core Information Service (LC-CIS) of the Geoland2 European project. The three used land surface models are C-TESSEL from ECMWF, SURFEX from CNRM and ORCHIDEE from IPSL. These models differ in their hypotheses used to describe processes and the interactions between ecological compartments (plant, soil and atmosphere) and climate and environmental conditions. Results of the verification and model benchmarking are here presented. Surface fluxes of the models are verified against FLUXNET sites representing main worldwide Plant Functional Types (PFTs: forest, grassland and cropland). The quality and accuracy of the EC data is verified using the CarboEurope database methodology. Modelled carbon and water fluxes magnitude, daily and annual cycles, inter-annual anomalies are verified against eddy covariance data using robust statistical analysis (r, RMSE, E, BE). We also verify the performance of the models in predicting the functional responses of Gross Primary Production (GPP) and RE (Ecosystem Respiration) to the environmental driving variables (i.e. temperature, soil water content and radiation) by comparing the functional relationships obtained from the outputs and observed data. Obtained results suggest some ways of improving such models for global carbon modelling.

Absolute water storages in the Congo River floodplains from integration of InSAR and satellite radar altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.; Yuan, T.; Jung, H. C.; Aierken, A.; Beighley, E.; Alsdorf, D. E.; Tshimanga, R.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

Floodplains delay the transport of water, dissolved matter and sediments by storing water during flood peak seasons. Estimation of water storage over the floodplains is essential to understand the water balances in the fluvial systems and the role of floodplains in nutrient and sediment transport. However, spatio-temporal variations of water storages over floodplains are not well known due to their remoteness, vastness, and high temporal variability. In this study, we propose a new method to estimate absolute water storages over the floodplains by establishing relations between water depths (d) and water volumes (V) using 2-D water depth maps from the integration of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and altimetry measurements. We applied this method over the Congo River floodplains and modeled the d-V relation using a power function (note that d-V indicates relation between d and V, not d minus V), which revealed the cross-section geometry of the floodplains as a convex curve. Then, we combined this relation and Envisat altimetry measurements to construct time series of floodplain's absolute water storages from 2002 to 2011. Its mean annual amplitude over the floodplains ( 7,777 km2) is 3.860.59 km3 with peaks in December, which lags behind total water storage (TWS) changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and precipitation changes from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) by about one month. The results also exhibit inter-annual variability, with maximum water volume to be 5.9 +- 0.72 km3 in the wet year of 2002 and minimum volume to be 2.01 +- 0.63 km3 in the dry year of 2005. The inter-annual variation of water storages can be explained by the changes of precipitation from TRMM.

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

Impact of Reconstruction Algorithms on CT Radiomic Features of Pulmonary Tumors: Analysis of Intra- and Inter-Reader Variability and Inter-Reconstruction Algorithm Variability.

PubMed

Kim, Hyungjin; Park, Chang Min; Lee, Myunghee; Park, Sang Joon; Song, Yong Sub; Lee, Jong Hyuk; Hwang, Eui Jin; Goo, Jin Mo

2016-01-01

To identify the impact of reconstruction algorithms on CT radiomic features of pulmonary tumors and to reveal and compare the intra- and inter-reader and inter-reconstruction algorithm variability of each feature. Forty-two patients (M:F = 19:23; mean age, 60.43±10.56 years) with 42 pulmonary tumors (22.56±8.51mm) underwent contrast-enhanced CT scans, which were reconstructed with filtered back projection and commercial iterative reconstruction algorithm (level 3 and 5). Two readers independently segmented the whole tumor volume. Fifteen radiomic features were extracted and compared among reconstruction algorithms. Intra- and inter-reader variability and inter-reconstruction algorithm variability were calculated using coefficients of variation (CVs) and then compared. Among the 15 features, 5 first-order tumor intensity features and 4 gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM)-based features showed significant differences (p<0.05) among reconstruction algorithms. As for the variability, effective diameter, sphericity, entropy, and GLCM entropy were the most robust features (CV≤5%). Inter-reader variability was larger than intra-reader or inter-reconstruction algorithm variability in 9 features. However, for entropy, homogeneity, and 4 GLCM-based features, inter-reconstruction algorithm variability was significantly greater than inter-reader variability (p<0.013). Most of the radiomic features were significantly affected by the reconstruction algorithms. Inter-reconstruction algorithm variability was greater than inter-reader variability for entropy, homogeneity, and GLCM-based features.

Intra- and Inter-Annual Variability in Surface Hydrology in Northern Arizona from δ18O of Tree-Ring Cellulose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whittaker, T. E.; Galewsky, J.; Scuderi, L. A.; Sharp, Z. D.

2010-12-01

The primary goal of our research is to better understand how the surface hydrology of semi-arid sites in the Southwestern U.S. is affected by the annual cycles of precipitation and evaporation. Both are tied to relative strength of the North American Monsoon, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and, on shorter timescales, the occasional passage of tropical cyclone remnants. To achieve this we aim to develop high-resolution stable oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) profiles of tree-ring cellulose for much of the last 20 years that can be ground-truthed to direct meteorological observations. It is well documented that δ18O of alpha-cellulose extracted from wood reflects hydrological conditions of a trees’ environment at the time the tree grew. Primary controls on isotopic variability are changes in source waters and relative humidity during the growing season. We sampled rings from ≥ 10 Pinus ponderosa (Douglas) at six stands along an east-west transect across northern Arizona. Annual precipitation at these sites has a bimodal distribution with almost all annual rainfall occurring during the summer monsoon (Jul, Aug) and winter storms. At Flagstaff, in the center of our study area, monthly mean precipitation δ18O values are enriched ~6‰ during the monsoon relative to winter storms. P. ponderosa (Dougl.) rings display distinct early- and latewood bands. Earlywood typically forms using winter storm precipitation that has resided within the soil until the tree began growing and ought to reflect the isotopic composition of this water. Latewood δ18O reportedly reflect summer rainfall isotopic values. We investigate the eleven year period 1994-2004. This range encompasses the transition into the present ‘drought’, the intense 1997/98 El Niño, and the passage of the remnants of Hurricanes Nora (1997) and Javier (2004). Individual rings are sliced into subsamples of mass ~1.5 mg (yielding 3-13 samples/ring). Early isotopic data from these samples display three significant trends. First, isotopic variability in a given annual ring is closely matched at intra- and inter-tree scales in a single stand (inter-site comparisons unavailable at time of writing). Second, isotopic values demonstrate that trees growing within meters of each other do not begin/cease growing simultaneously, which has implications for low-resolution isotope cross-dating studies. Third, and most significantly, earlywood samples are consistently enriched in 18O relative to latewood samples by on average ~6‰. This result is unexpected based on the isotopic composition of local precipitation and suggests that rates of evaporative enrichment of 18O in soil and leaf moisture during the growing season vary and with significant effect. Further investigation of this phenomenon will incorporate IsoGSM model output of growing season precipitation and water vapor δ18O for the period of study.

Trends in Arctic Ocean bottom pressure, sea surface height and freshwater content using GRACE and the ice-ocean model PIOMAS from 2008-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peralta-Ferriz, Cecilia; Morison, James; Zhang, Jinlun; Bonin, Jennifer

2014-05-01

The variability of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) in the Arctic is dominated by the variations in sea surface height (SSH) from daily to monthly timescales. Conversely, OBP variability is dominated by the changes in the steric pressure (StP) at inter-annual timescales, particularly off the continental shelves. The combination of GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressure and ICESat altimetry-derived sea surface height variations in the Arctic Ocean have provided new means of identifying inter-annual trends in StP (StP = OBP-SSH) and associated freshwater content (FWC) of the Arctic region (Morison et al., 2012). Morison et al. (2012) showed that from 2004 to 2008, the FWC increased in the Beaufort Gyre and decreased in the Siberian and Central Arctic, resulting in a relatively small net basin-averaged FWC change. In this work, we investigate the inter-annual trends from 2008 to 2012 in OBP from GRACE, SSH from the state-of-the-art pan-Arctic ocean model PIOMAS -validated with tide and pressure gauges in the Arctic-, and compute the trends in StP and FWC from 2008-2012. We compare these results with the previous trends from 2005-2008 described in Morison et al. (2012). Our initial findings suggest increased salinity in the entire Arctic basin (relative to the climatological seasonal variation) from 2008-2012, compared to the preceding four years (2005-2008). We also find that the trends in OBP, SSH and StP from 2008-2012 present a different behavior during the spring-summer and fall-winter, unlike 2005-2008, in which the trends were generally consistent through all months of the year. It seems since 2009, when the Beaufort Gyre relaxed and the export of freshwater from the Canada Basin into the Canadian Archipelago and Fram Strait, via the Lincoln Sea, was anomalously large (de Steur et al., 2013), the Arctic Ocean has entered a new circulation regime. The causes of such changes in the inter-annual trends of OBP, SSH and StP -hence FWC-, associated with the changes in the shape and strength of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the wind patterns, as well as with the changes in sea ice conditions will be explored. References: Morison, J., R. Kwok, C. Peralta-Ferriz, M. Alkire, I. Rigor, R. Andersen, and M. Steele, Changing Arctic Ocean Freshwater Pathways Measured With ICESat and GRACE, Nature, 481, 66-70, DOI: 10.1038/nature10705, 2012. de Steur, L., et al. (2013), Hydrographic changes in the Lincoln Sea in the Arctic Ocean with focus on an upper ocean freshwater anomaly between 2007 and 2010, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 118, 4699-4715, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20341.

Inter-annual variation of carbon uptake by a plantation oak woodland in south-eastern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, M.; Eaton, E. L.; Broadmeadow, M. S. J.; Morison, J. I. L.

2012-07-01

The carbon balance of an 80 yr old deciduous oak plantation in the temperate oceanic climate of the south-east of Britain was measured by eddy covariance over 12 yr (1999-2010). The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 486 g C m-2 y-1 (95% CI of ±73 g C m-2 y-1), and this was partitioned into a Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) of 2034 ± 145 g C m-2 y-1, over a 165 (±6) day growing season, and an annual loss of carbon through respiration and decomposition (ecosystem respiration, Reco) of 1548 ± 122 g C m-2 y-1. The interannual variation of NEP was large (coefficient of variation (CV) 23%), although the variation for GPP and Reco was smaller (12%) and the ratio of Reco/GPP was relatively constant (0.76 ± 0.02 CI). Some anomalies in the annual patterns of the carbon balance could be linked to particular combinations of anomalous weather events, such as high summer air temperature and low soil moisture content. The Europe-wide heat-wave and drought of 2003 had little effect on the C balance of this woodland on a surface water gley soil. Annual variation in precipitation (CV 18%) was not a main factor in the variation in NEP. The inter-annual variation in estimated intercepted radiation only accounted for ~ 47% of the variation in GPP, although a significant relationship (p<0.001) was found between peak leaf area index and annual GPP which in turn played an important role in modifying the efficiency with which incident radiation was used in net CO2 uptake. Whilst the spring start and late autumn end of the net CO2 uptake period varied substantially (range of 24 and 27 days, respectively), annual GPP was not related to growing season length. Severe outbreaks of defoliating moth caterpillars, mostly Tortrix viridana L. and Operophtera brumata L., caused considerable damage to the forest canopy in 2009 and 2010, resulting in reduced GPP in these years.

Effect of climate, intra and inter-annual variability, on nutrients emission (C,N, P) in stream water: lessons from an agricultural long term observatory of the temperate zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Remi, Dupas; Patrick, Durand; Ophélie, Fovet; Gerard, Gruau; Anne, Jaffrezic; Guillaume, Humbert; Philippe, Merot; Gu, Sen

2016-04-01

Agriculture greatly contributes to modify C, N and P cycles, particularly in animal breeding regions due to high inputs. Climatic conditions, intra and inter-annual variabilities, modify nutrient stream water emissions, acting in time on transfer and transformation, accumulation and mobilization processes, connecting and disconnecting in time different compartments (soil, riparian areas, groundwater). In agricultural catchments, nutrient perturbations are dominated by agricultural land use, and decoupling human activities and climate effects is far from easy. Climate change generally appears as a secondary driver compared to land use. If studied, generally only one nutrient is considered. Only long term, high frequency and multiple element data series can decouple these two drivers. The Kervidy-Naizin watershed belongs to the AgrHyS environmental research observatory (http://www6.inra.fr/ore_agrhys_eng), itself included in RBV (French catchment network of the CZO). On this catchment, 6 years of daily data on DOC, NO3, SRP, TP concentrations allow us to analyze the effect of seasonal and inter-annual climatic variabilities on water quality (C, N, P). Different papers have been published on the effect of climate on nitrate (Molenat et al, 2008), SRP and TP (Dupas et al, 2015) and DOC (Humbert et al, 2015). We will present first results comparing the effect of climate on these three major solute forms of C, N and P. While C and P dynamics are very close and controlled by fluctuation of water table downslope, i.e. in riparian areas, mobilizing C and P in time, nitrate dynamics is controlled by GW dynamics upslope acting as the major N reservoir. As example, the dryness conditions in summer appears a key factor of the C and P emissions in autumn. All the three solute forms interact when anoxic conditions are observed in riparian zones. These basic processes explain how climatic variability can influence and explain interactions between C, N and P emissions in stream water. These results underline three major lack in most of our observatories: high frequency data as flood event are important for C and P emissions; multiple element approach, as very few observatories have currently C, N and P, their solute and particulate forms; climate but also soil wetness, GW fluctuations explaining biotransformation and connection between reservoirs on catchments, so that linking hydrological and biogeochimical condition is necessary to explain export. These lacks of observations is a barrier to develop process based models assessing and predicting the effect of climate on water quality. References Dupas R., Gruau G., Sen Gu, Humbert G., Jaffrezic A., Gascuel-Odoux C., 2015. Groundwater control of biogeochemical processes causing phosphorus release from riparian wetlands. Water Research 84, 307-314 Humbert G., Jaffrezic A., Fovet O., Gruau G., Durand P., 2015. Dry-season length and runoff control annual variability in stream DOC dynamics in a small, shallow groundwater-dominated agricultural watershed. Water Resources Research. Molenat J., Gascuel-Odoux C., Ruiz L., Gruau G., 2008. Role of water table dynamics on stream nitrate export and concentration in agricultural headwater. Journal of Hydrology 348, 363- 378.

Assessing the predictability of fire occurrence and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2014-01-01

Most fire protection agencies throughout the world have developed forest fire risk forecast systems, usually building upon existing fire danger indices and meteorological forecast data. In this context, the daily predictability of wildfires is of utmost importance in order to allow the fire protection agencies to issue timely fire hazard alerts. In this study, we address the predictability of daily fire occurrence using the components of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and related variables calculated from the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis, ERA-Interim. We develop daily fire occurrence models in peninsular Spain for the period 1990-2008 and, considering different minimum burned area thresholds for fire definition, assess their ability to reproduce the inter-annual fire frequency variability. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climate/fuel conditions. We then extend the analysis in order to assess the predictability of monthly burned areas. The sensitivity of the models to the level of spatial aggregation of the data is also evaluated. Additionally, we investigate the gain in model performance with the inclusion of socioeconomic and land use/land cover (LULC) covariates in model formulation. Fire occurrence models have attained good performance in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, being able to faithfully reproduce the inter-annual variability of fire frequency. Total area burned has exhibited some dependence on the meteorological drivers, although model performance was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire occurrence prediction in the study area. The results were improved when using aggregated data across regions compared to when data were sampled at the grid-box level. The inclusion of socioeconomic and LULC covariates contributed marginally to the improvement of the models, and in most cases attained no relevant contribution to total explained variance - excepting northern Spain, where anthropogenic factors are known to be the major driver of fires. Models of monthly fire counts performed better in the case of fires larger than 0.1 ha, and for the rest of the thresholds (1, 10 and 100 ha) the daily occurrence models improved the predicted inter-annual variability, indicating the added value of daily models. Fire frequency predictions may provide a preferable basis for past fire history reconstruction, long-term monitoring and the assessment of future climate impacts on fire regimes across regions, posing several advantages over burned area as a response variable. Our results leave the door open to the development a more complex modelling framework based on daily data from numerical climate model outputs based on the FWI system.

Monitoring vegetation phenology using MODIS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Xiayong; Friedl, Mark A.; Schaaf, Crystal B.; Strahler, Alan H.; Hodges, John C.F.; Gao, Feng; Reed, Bradley C.; Huete, Alfredo

2003-01-01

Accurate measurements of regional to global scale vegetation dynamics (phenology) are required to improve models and understanding of inter-annual variability in terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange and climate–biosphere interactions. Since the mid-1980s, satellite data have been used to study these processes. In this paper, a new methodology to monitor global vegetation phenology from time series of satellite data is presented. The method uses series of piecewise logistic functions, which are fit to remotely sensed vegetation index (VI) data, to represent intra-annual vegetation dynamics. Using this approach, transition dates for vegetation activity within annual time series of VI data can be determined from satellite data. The method allows vegetation dynamics to be monitored at large scales in a fashion that it is ecologically meaningful and does not require pre-smoothing of data or the use of user-defined thresholds. Preliminary results based on an annual time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the northeastern United States demonstrate that the method is able to monitor vegetation phenology with good success.

Ecosystem relevance of variable jellyfish biomass in the Irish Sea between years, regions and water types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastian, Thomas; Lilley, Martin K. S.; Beggs, Steven E.; Hays, Graeme C.; Doyle, Thomas K.

2014-08-01

Monitoring the abundance and distribution of taxa is essential to assess their contribution to ecosystem processes. For marine taxa that are difficult to study or have long been perceived of little ecological importance, quantitative information is often lacking. This is the case for jellyfish (medusae and other gelatinous plankton). In the present work, 4 years of scyphomedusae by-catch data from the 2007-2010 Irish Sea juvenile gadoid fish survey were analysed with three main objectives: (1) to provide quantitative and spatially-explicit species-specific biomass data, for a region known to have an increasing trend in jellyfish abundance; (2) to investigate whether year-to-year changes in catch-biomass are due to changes in the numbers or in the size of medusa (assessed as the mean mass per individual), and (3) to determine whether inter-annual variation patterns are consistent between species and water masses. Scyphomedusae were present in 97% of samples (N = 306). Their overall annual median catch-biomass ranged from 0.19 to 0.92 g m-3 (or 8.6 to 42.4 g m-2). Aurelia aurita and Cyanea spp. (Cyanea lamarckii and Cyanea capillata) made up 77.7% and 21.5% of the total catch-biomass respectively, but species contributions varied greatly between sub-regions and years. No consistent pattern was detected between the distribution and inter-annual variations of the two genera, and contrasting inter-annual patterns emerged when considering abundance either as biomass or as density. Significantly, A. aurita medusae were heavier in stratified than in mixed waters, which we hypothesize may be linked to differences in timing and yield of primary and secondary productions between water masses. These results show the vulnerability of time-series from bycatch datasets to phenological changes and highlight the importance of taking species- and population-specific distribution patterns into account when integrating jellyfish into ecosystem models.

Enhancing AIS to Improve Whale-Ship Collision Avoidance and Maritime Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

were hit. III. FLOATERS : SHIP STRIKES WITH DEAD WHALES It is sometimes the case that ships that hit whales actually come into port...with the whale draped across the bow of the ship, as recently happened in Anchorage, Alaska. A dead whale, or ‘ floater ’ is unpleasant to smell, and...2008). These facts indicate the great inter-annual variability of the occurrence of ‘ floaters ’ and suggests a need to address this fact in whale-ship

Inter Annual Variability of the California Current System and Associated Biochemical Characteristics from Prolonged Data Series

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

onto the eastern north Pacific circulation has been studied for years, the effect of El Nino Modoki in the region is still unclear. The CCS is...ready for combat. The main mission of Third Fleet is to provide safe, effective , relevant training to ensure Sailors have the essential skills to...Fleet. Understanding our environment and ocean currents with in the CCS improves the Navy’s ability to practice operating safely and effectively along

Inter-American Foundation Annual Report 1987.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inter-American Foundation, Rosslyn, VA.

This annual report from the Inter-American Foundation (IAF), a federal development agency, includes letters from foundation officials describing the IAF-funded work in poverty areas of Latin America and the Caribbean. The report describes IAF's In-Country Support System (ICS), staffed by local professionals who assist grantees and report their…

Long-Term Trends and Variability in Spring Development of Calanus finmarchicus in the Southeastern Norwegian Sea during 1996-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.

2016-02-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.

Inter-annual variability of NDVI in response to long-term warming and fertilization in wet sedge and tussock tundra.

PubMed

Boelman, Natalie T; Stieglitz, Marc; Griffin, Kevin L; Shaver, Gaius R

2005-05-01

This study explores the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and aboveground plant biomass for tussock tundra vegetation and compares it to a previously established NDVI-biomass relationship for wet sedge tundra vegetation. In addition, we explore inter-annual variation in NDVI in both these contrasting vegetation communities. All measurements were taken across long-term experimental treatments in wet sedge and tussock tundra communities at the Toolik Lake Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site, in northern Alaska. Over 15 years (for wet sedge tundra) and 14 years (for tussock tundra), N and P were applied in factorial experiments (N, P and N+P), air temperature was increased using greenhouses with and without N+P fertilizer, and light intensity was reduced by 50% using shade cloth. during the peak growing seasons of 2001, 2002, and 2003, NDVI measurements were made in both the wet sedge and tussock tundra experimental treatment plots, creating a 3-year time series of inter-annual variation in NDVI. We found that: (1) across all tussock experimental tundra treatments, NDVI is correlated with aboveground plant biomass (r2 = 0.59); (2) NDVI-biomass relationships for tussock and wet sedge tundra communities are community specific, and; (3) NDVI values for tussock tundra communities are typically, but not always, greater than for wet sedge tundra communities across all experimental treatments. We suggest that differences between the response of wet sedge and tussock tundra communities in the same experimental treatments result from the contrasting degree of heterogeneity in species and functional types that characterize each of these Arctic tundra vegetation communities.

Variability of the volume and thickness of sea ice in the Bay of Bothnia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronkainen, Iina; Lehtiranta, Jonni; Lensu, Mikko; Rinne, Eero; Hordoir, Robinson; Haapala, Jari

2017-04-01

Variability of the volume and thickness of sea ice in the Bay of Bothnia In our study, we want to quantify the variability of sea ice volume and thickness in the Bay of Bothnia and to introduce the drivers of the observed variability. There has been similar studies, but only for fast ice. We use various different data sets: in-situ ice thickness data, remote sensing data, model data and ice charts. In-situ data is from the regular monitoring stations in the coastal fast ice zone and from field campaigns. The remote sensing data is helicopter-borne and ship-borne electromagnetic data. The models we use are HELMI and NEMO-Nordic. We analyze the different data sets and compare them to each other to solve the inter-annual variability and to discuss the ratio of level and deformed ice.

Diversity and association of phenotypic and metabolomic traits in the close model grasses Brachypodium distachyon, B. stacei and B. hybridum

PubMed Central

López-Álvarez, Diana; Zubair, Hassan; Beckmann, Manfred; Draper, John

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims Morphological traits in combination with metabolite fingerprinting were used to investigate inter- and intraspecies diversity within the model annual grasses Brachypodium distachyon, Brachypodium stacei and Brachypodium hybridum. Methods Phenotypic variation of 15 morphological characters and 2219 nominal mass (m/z) signals generated using flow infusion electrospray ionization–mass spectrometry (FIE–MS) were evaluated in individuals from a total of 174 wild populations and six inbred lines, and 12 lines, of the three species, respectively. Basic statistics and multivariate principal component analysis and discriminant analysis were used to differentiate inter- and intraspecific variability of the two types of variable, and their association was assayed with the rcorr function. Key Results Basic statistics and analysis of variance detected eight phenotypic characters [(stomata) leaf guard cell length, pollen grain length, (plant) height, second leaf width, inflorescence length, number of spikelets per inflorescence, lemma length, awn length] and 434 tentatively annotated metabolite signals that significantly discriminated the three species. Three phenotypic traits (pollen grain length, spikelet length, number of flowers per inflorescence) might be genetically fixed. The three species showed different metabolomic profiles. Discriminant analysis significantly discriminated the three taxa with both morphometric and metabolome traits and the intraspecific phenotypic diversity within B. distachyon and B. stacei. The populations of B. hybridum were considerably less differentiated. Conclusions Highly explanatory metabolite signals together with morphological characters revealed concordant patterns of differentiation of the three taxa. Intraspecific phenotypic diversity was observed between northern and southern Iberian populations of B. distachyon and between eastern Mediterranean/south-western Asian and western Mediterranean populations of B. stacei. Significant association was found for pollen grain length and lemma length and ten and six metabolomic signals, respectively. These results would guide the selection of new germplasm lines of the three model grasses in ongoing genome-wide association studies. PMID:28040672

Future hotspots of increasing temperature variability in tropical countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bathiany, S.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

Resolving how climate variability will change in future is crucial to determining how challenging it will be for societies and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. We show that the largest increases in temperature variability - that are robust between state-of-the art climate models - are concentrated in tropical countries. On average, temperature variability increases by 15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa during austral summer, and by up to 10% °C-1 in the Sahel, India and South East Asia. Southern hemisphere changes can be explained by drying soils, whereas shifts in atmospheric structure play a more important role in the Northern hemisphere. These robust regional changes in variability are associated with monthly timescale events, whereas uncertain changes in inter-annual modes of variability make the response of global temperature variability uncertain. Our results suggest that regional changes in temperature variability will create new inequalities in climate change impacts between rich and poor nations.

Spontaneous Fluctuations in Sensory Processing Predict Within-Subject Reaction Time Variability.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Maria J; Paiva, Joana S; Castelo-Branco, Miguel

2016-01-01

When engaged in a repetitive task our performance fluctuates from trial-to-trial. In particular, inter-trial reaction time variability has been the subject of considerable research. It has been claimed to be a strong biomarker of attention deficits, increases with frontal dysfunction, and predicts age-related cognitive decline. Thus, rather than being just a consequence of noise in the system, it appears to be under the control of a mechanism that breaks down under certain pathological conditions. Although the underlying mechanism is still an open question, consensual hypotheses are emerging regarding the neural correlates of reaction time inter-trial intra-individual variability. Sensory processing, in particular, has been shown to covary with reaction time, yet the spatio-temporal profile of the moment-to-moment variability in sensory processing is still poorly characterized. The goal of this study was to characterize the intra-individual variability in the time course of single-trial visual evoked potentials and its relationship with inter-trial reaction time variability. For this, we chose to take advantage of the high temporal resolution of the electroencephalogram (EEG) acquired while participants were engaged in a 2-choice reaction time task. We studied the link between single trial event-related potentials (ERPs) and reaction time using two different analyses: (1) time point by time point correlation analyses thereby identifying time windows of interest; and (2) correlation analyses between single trial measures of peak latency and amplitude and reaction time. To improve extraction of single trial ERP measures related with activation of the visual cortex, we used an independent component analysis (ICA) procedure. Our ERP analysis revealed a relationship between the N1 visual evoked potential and reaction time. The earliest time point presenting a significant correlation of its respective amplitude with reaction time occurred 175 ms after stimulus onset, just after the onset of the N1 peak. Interestingly, single trial N1 latency correlated significantly with reaction time, while N1 amplitude did not. In conclusion, our findings suggest that inter-trial variability in the timing of extrastriate visual processing contributes to reaction time variability.

Spontaneous Fluctuations in Sensory Processing Predict Within-Subject Reaction Time Variability

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Maria J.; Paiva, Joana S.; Castelo-Branco, Miguel

2016-01-01

When engaged in a repetitive task our performance fluctuates from trial-to-trial. In particular, inter-trial reaction time variability has been the subject of considerable research. It has been claimed to be a strong biomarker of attention deficits, increases with frontal dysfunction, and predicts age-related cognitive decline. Thus, rather than being just a consequence of noise in the system, it appears to be under the control of a mechanism that breaks down under certain pathological conditions. Although the underlying mechanism is still an open question, consensual hypotheses are emerging regarding the neural correlates of reaction time inter-trial intra-individual variability. Sensory processing, in particular, has been shown to covary with reaction time, yet the spatio-temporal profile of the moment-to-moment variability in sensory processing is still poorly characterized. The goal of this study was to characterize the intra-individual variability in the time course of single-trial visual evoked potentials and its relationship with inter-trial reaction time variability. For this, we chose to take advantage of the high temporal resolution of the electroencephalogram (EEG) acquired while participants were engaged in a 2-choice reaction time task. We studied the link between single trial event-related potentials (ERPs) and reaction time using two different analyses: (1) time point by time point correlation analyses thereby identifying time windows of interest; and (2) correlation analyses between single trial measures of peak latency and amplitude and reaction time. To improve extraction of single trial ERP measures related with activation of the visual cortex, we used an independent component analysis (ICA) procedure. Our ERP analysis revealed a relationship between the N1 visual evoked potential and reaction time. The earliest time point presenting a significant correlation of its respective amplitude with reaction time occurred 175 ms after stimulus onset, just after the onset of the N1 peak. Interestingly, single trial N1 latency correlated significantly with reaction time, while N1 amplitude did not. In conclusion, our findings suggest that inter-trial variability in the timing of extrastriate visual processing contributes to reaction time variability. PMID:27242470

Seasonal and inter-annual variation in ecosystem scale methane emission from a boreal fen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinne, Janne; Li, Xuefei; Raivonen, Maarit; Peltola, Olli; Sallantaus, Tapani; Haapanala, Sami; Smolander, Sampo; Alekseychik, Pavel; Aurela, Mika; Korrensalo, Aino; Mammarella, Ivan; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina; Vesala, Timo

2016-04-01

Northern wetlands are one of the major sources of atmospheric methane. We have measured ecosystem scale methane emissions from a boreal fen continuously since 2005. The site is an oligotrophic fen in boreal vegetation zone situated in Siikaneva wetland complex in Southern Finland. The mean annual temperature in the area is 3.3°C and total annual precipitation 710 mm. We have conducted the methane emission measurements by the eddy covariance method. Additionally we have measured fluxes of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and sensible heat together with a suite of other environmental parameters. We have analyzed this data alongside with a model run with University of Helsinki methane model. The measured fluxes show generally highest methane emission in late summers coinciding with the highest temperatures in saturated peat zone. During winters the fluxes show small but detectable emission despite the snow and ice cover on the fen. More than 90% of the annual methane emission occurs in snow-free period. The methane emission and peat temperature are connected in exponential manner in seasonal scales, but methane emission does not show the expected behavior with water table. The lack of water table position dependence also contrasts with the spatial variation across microtopography. There is no systematic variation in sub-diurnal time scale. The general seasonal cycle in methane emission is captured well with the methane model. We will show how well the model reproduces the temperature and water table position dependencies observed. The annual methane emission is typically around 10 gC m-2. This is a significant part of the total carbon exchange between the fen and the atmosphere and about twice the estimated carbon loss by leaching from the fen area. The inter-annual variability in the methane emission is modest. The June-September methane emissions from different years, comprising most of the annual emission, correlates positively with peat temperature, but not with water table position.

Contrast-enhanced 3T MR Perfusion of Musculoskeletal Tumours: T1 Value Heterogeneity Assessment and Evaluation of the Influence of T1 Estimation Methods on Quantitative Parameters.

PubMed

Gondim Teixeira, Pedro Augusto; Leplat, Christophe; Chen, Bailiang; De Verbizier, Jacques; Beaumont, Marine; Badr, Sammy; Cotten, Anne; Blum, Alain

2017-12-01

To evaluate intra-tumour and striated muscle T1 value heterogeneity and the influence of different methods of T1 estimation on the variability of quantitative perfusion parameters. Eighty-two patients with a histologically confirmed musculoskeletal tumour were prospectively included in this study and, with ethics committee approval, underwent contrast-enhanced MR perfusion and T1 mapping. T1 value variations in viable tumour areas and in normal-appearing striated muscle were assessed. In 20 cases, normal muscle perfusion parameters were calculated using three different methods: signal based and gadolinium concentration based on fixed and variable T1 values. Tumour and normal muscle T1 values were significantly different (p = 0.0008). T1 value heterogeneity was higher in tumours than in normal muscle (variation of 19.8% versus 13%). The T1 estimation method had a considerable influence on the variability of perfusion parameters. Fixed T1 values yielded higher coefficients of variation than variable T1 values (mean 109.6 ± 41.8% and 58.3 ± 14.1% respectively). Area under the curve was the least variable parameter (36%). T1 values in musculoskeletal tumours are significantly different and more heterogeneous than normal muscle. Patient-specific T1 estimation is needed for direct inter-patient comparison of perfusion parameters. • T1 value variation in musculoskeletal tumours is considerable. • T1 values in muscle and tumours are significantly different. • Patient-specific T1 estimation is needed for comparison of inter-patient perfusion parameters. • Technical variation is higher in permeability than semiquantitative perfusion parameters.

Comparison of calculation methods for estimating annual carbon stock change in German forests under forest management in the German greenhouse gas inventory.

PubMed

Röhling, Steffi; Dunger, Karsten; Kändler, Gerald; Klatt, Susann; Riedel, Thomas; Stümer, Wolfgang; Brötz, Johannes

2016-12-01

The German greenhouse gas inventory in the land use change sector strongly depends on national forest inventory data. As these data were collected periodically 1987, 2002, 2008 and 2012, the time series on emissions show several "jumps" due to biomass stock change, especially between 2001 and 2002 and between 2007 and 2008 while within the periods the emissions seem to be constant due to the application of periodical average emission factors. This does not reflect inter-annual variability in the time series, which would be assumed as the drivers for the carbon stock changes fluctuate between the years. Therefore additional data, which is available on annual basis, should be introduced into the calculations of the emissions inventories in order to get more plausible time series. This article explores the possibility of introducing an annual rather than periodical approach to calculating emission factors with the given data and thus smoothing the trajectory of time series for emissions from forest biomass. Two approaches are introduced to estimate annual changes derived from periodic data: the so-called logging factor method and the growth factor method. The logging factor method incorporates annual logging data to project annual values from periodic values. This is less complex to implement than the growth factor method, which additionally adds growth data into the calculations. Calculation of the input variables is based on sound statistical methodologies and periodically collected data that cannot be altered. Thus a discontinuous trajectory of the emissions over time remains, even after the adjustments. It is intended to adopt this approach in the German greenhouse gas reporting in order to meet the request for annually adjusted values.

Inter-Annual Variability of Fledgling Sex Ratio in King Penguins.

PubMed

Bordier, Célia; Saraux, Claire; Viblanc, Vincent A; Gachot-Neveu, Hélène; Beaugey, Magali; Le Maho, Yvon; Le Bohec, Céline

2014-01-01

As the number of breeding pairs depends on the adult sex ratio in a monogamous species with biparental care, investigating sex-ratio variability in natural populations is essential to understand population dynamics. Using 10 years of data (2000-2009) in a seasonally monogamous seabird, the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), we investigated the annual sex ratio at fledging, and the potential environmental causes for its variation. Over more than 4000 birds, the annual sex ratio at fledging was highly variable (ranging from 44.4% to 58.3% of males), and on average slightly biased towards males (51.6%). Yearly variation in sex-ratio bias was neither related to density within the colony, nor to global or local oceanographic conditions known to affect both the productivity and accessibility of penguin foraging areas. However, rising sea surface temperature coincided with an increase in fledging sex-ratio variability. Fledging sex ratio was also correlated with difference in body condition between male and female fledglings. When more males were produced in a given year, their body condition was higher (and reciprocally), suggesting that parents might adopt a sex-biased allocation strategy depending on yearly environmental conditions and/or that the effect of environmental parameters on chick condition and survival may be sex-dependent. The initial bias in sex ratio observed at the juvenile stage tended to return to 1∶1 equilibrium upon first breeding attempts, as would be expected from Fisher's classic theory of offspring sex-ratio variation.

High-quality Italian rice cultivars: chemical indices of ageing and aroma quality.

PubMed

Griglione, Alessandra; Liberto, Erica; Cordero, Chiara; Bressanello, Davide; Cagliero, Cecilia; Rubiolo, Patrizia; Bicchi, Carlo; Sgorbini, Barbara

2015-04-01

The volatile fractions of six Italian high-quality rice cultivars were investigated by HS-SPME-GC-MS to define fingerprinting and identify chemical markers and/or indices of ageing and aroma quality. In particular, four non-aromatic (Carnaroli, Carnise, Cerere and Antares) and two aromatic (Apollo and Venere) rices, harvested in 2010 and 2011, were monitored over 12months. Twenty-five aroma components were considered and, despite considerable inter-annual variability, some of them showed similar trends over time, including 2-(E)-octenal as a marker of ageing for all cultivars, and heptanal, octanal and 2-ethyl hexanol as cultivar-specific indicators. The area ratios 2-acetyl-1-pyrroline/1-octen-3-ol, for Venere, and 3-methyl-1-butanol/2-methyl-1-butanol, for Apollo, were also found to act as ageing indices. Additional information on release of key-aroma compounds was also obtained from quantitation and its dependence on grain shape and chemical composition. Heptanal/1-octen-3-ol and heptanal/octanal ratios were also defined as characterising the aroma quality indices of the six Italian rice cultivars investigated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

Ichthyoplankton assemblage structure of springs in the Yangtze Estuary revealed by biological and environmental visions.

PubMed

Zhang, Hui; Xian, Weiwei; Liu, Shude

2015-01-01

The ichthyoplankton assemblage structure in the Yangtze Estuary was analyzed based on four springs in 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2007 in order to provide detailed characterizations of the ichthyoplankton assemblage in springs, examine the long-term dynamics of spring ichthyoplankton assemblages, and evaluate the influence of environmental factors on the spatial distribution and inter-annual variations of ichthyoplankton assemblages associated with the Yangtze Estuary. Forty-two ichthyoplankton species belonging to 23 families were collected. Engraulidae was the most abundant family, including six species and comprising 67.91% of the total catch. Only four species (Coilia mystus, Engraulis japonicus, Trachidermis fasciatus and Allanetta bleekeri) could be considered dominant, accounting for 88.70% of total abundance. The structure of the ichthyoplankton spring assemblage persisted on an annual basis, with the dominant species reappearing consistently even though their abundance fluctuated from year to year. This inter-annual variation probably reflects variable environmental conditions influenced by jellyfish blooms, declining river flow, and overfishing. Canonical correspondence analysis indicated aspatial structure of the ichthyoplankton assemblage in three areas: (1) an inner assemblage dominated by C. mystus; (2) a central assemblage dominated by A. bleekeri and T. fasciatus; and (3) a shelf assemblage featuring E. japonicus. The observed ichthyoplankton assemblage structure appears to be strongly influenced by depth, salinity and suspended particulate matter gradients.

Ichthyoplankton assemblage structure of springs in the Yangtze Estuary revealed by biological and environmental visions

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hui; Liu, Shude

2015-01-01

The ichthyoplankton assemblage structure in the Yangtze Estuary was analyzed based on four springs in 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2007 in order to provide detailed characterizations of the ichthyoplankton assemblage in springs, examine the long-term dynamics of spring ichthyoplankton assemblages, and evaluate the influence of environmental factors on the spatial distribution and inter-annual variations of ichthyoplankton assemblages associated with the Yangtze Estuary. Forty-two ichthyoplankton species belonging to 23 families were collected. Engraulidae was the most abundant family, including six species and comprising 67.91% of the total catch. Only four species (Coilia mystus, Engraulis japonicus, Trachidermis fasciatus and Allanetta bleekeri) could be considered dominant, accounting for 88.70% of total abundance. The structure of the ichthyoplankton spring assemblage persisted on an annual basis, with the dominant species reappearing consistently even though their abundance fluctuated from year to year. This inter-annual variation probably reflects variable environmental conditions influenced by jellyfish blooms, declining river flow, and overfishing. Canonical correspondence analysis indicated aspatial structure of the ichthyoplankton assemblage in three areas: (1) an inner assemblage dominated by C. mystus; (2) a central assemblage dominated by A. bleekeri and T. fasciatus; and (3) a shelf assemblage featuring E. japonicus. The observed ichthyoplankton assemblage structure appears to be strongly influenced by depth, salinity and suspended particulate matter gradients. PMID:26312180

Change features and regional distribution of temperature trend and variability joint mode in mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xi; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Feng, Jieling; Wang, Ye

2018-05-01

Adaption for temperature should be suitable to local conditions for regional differences in temperature change features. This paper proposed to utilize nine temperature modes that joint the trend (increasing/decreasing/unchanged) with variability (intensifying/weakening/unchanged) to investigate features of temperature change in mainland China. Monthly temperature data over the period 1960-2013 were obtained from 522 national basic and reference meteorological stations. Here, temperature trend (TT) was reflected by the trend of mean annual temperature (MAT) and the uptrend (downtrend) of inter-monthly sliding standard deviation (SSD) series with a sliding length of 29 years (348 months) was used for representing the intensification (weakening) of temperature variability (TV). The Mann-Kendall method and the least squares method were applied to assess the significance and quantify the magnitude of trend in MAT and SSD time series, respectively. The results show that there is a consistent warming trend throughout the country except for only three stations in which a cooling trend is identified. Moreover, the overall increasing rate in the north of 35° N is the highest, over 0.4 °C/decade for most stations. TV is weakened for almost 98% of the stations, indicating the low instability of temperature at a national scale. Finally, temperature mode (TM), for more than 90% of the stations, is the combination of an increasing TT with a weakened TV (mode 8). So, it is more important for people to adapt to the increasing temperature in these regions. Compared to using annual temperature data to calculate SSD, monthly data can accurately reflect the inter-monthly change of temperature and reserve more initial characteristics of temperature.

Climate effects on phytoplankton floral composition in Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, L. W.; Adolf, J. E.; Mallonee, M. E.; Miller, W. D.; Gallegos, C. L.; Perry, E. S.; Johnson, J. M.; Sellner, K. G.; Paerl, H. W.

2015-09-01

Long-term data on floral composition of phytoplankton are presented to document seasonal and inter-annual variability in Chesapeake Bay related to climate effects on hydrology. Source data consist of the abundances of major taxonomic groups of phytoplankton derived from algal photopigments (1995-2004) and cell counts (1985-2007). Algal photopigments were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and analyzed using the software CHEMTAX to determine the proportions of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in major taxonomic groups. Cell counts determined microscopically provided species identifications, enumeration, and dimensions used to obtain proportions of cell volume (CV), plasma volume (PV), and carbon (C) in the same taxonomic groups. We drew upon these two independent data sets to take advantage of the unique strengths of each method, using comparable quantitative measures to express floral composition for the main stem bay. Spatial and temporal variability of floral composition was quantified using data aggregated by season, year, and salinity zone. Both time-series were sufficiently long to encompass the drought-flood cycle with commensurate effects on inputs of freshwater and solutes. Diatoms emerged as the predominant taxonomic group, with significant contributions by dinoflagellates, cryptophytes, and cyanobacteria, depending on salinity zone and season. Our analyses revealed increased abundance of diatoms in wet years compared to long-term average (LTA) or dry years. Results are presented in the context of long-term nutrient over-enrichment of the bay, punctuated by inter-annual variability of freshwater flow that strongly affects nutrient loading, chl-a, and floral composition. Statistical analyses generated flow-adjusted diatom abundance and showed significant trends late in the time series, suggesting current and future decreases of nutrient inputs may lead to a reduction of the proportion of biomass comprised by diatoms in an increasingly diverse flora.

Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Wet Season Rainfall Totals in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahle, D. W.; Lopez, L.; Granato-Souza, D.; Barbosa, A. C. M. C.; Torbenson, M.; Villalba, R.; Pereira, G. D. A.; Feng, S.; Schongart, J.; Cook, E. R.

2017-12-01

The Amazon Basin is a globally important center of deep atmospheric convection, energy balance, and biodiversity, but only a handful of weather stations in this vast Basin have recorded rainfall measurements for at least 50 years. The available rainfall and river level observations suggest that the hydrologic cycle in the Amazon may have become amplified in the last 40-years, with more extreme rainfall and streamflow seasonality, deeper droughts, and more severe flooding. These changes in the largest hydrological system on earth may be early evidence of the expected consequences of anthropogenic climate change and deforestation in the coming century. Placing these observed and simulated changes in the context of natural climate variability during the late Holocene is a significant challenge for high-resolution paleoclimatology. We have developed exactly dated and well-replicated annual tree-ring chronologies from two native Amazonian tree species (Cedrela sp and Centrolobium microchaete). These moisture sensitive chronologies have been used to compute two reconstructions of wet season rainfall totals, one in the southern Amazon based on Centrolobium and another in the eastern equatorial Amazon using Cedrela. Both reconstructions are over 200-years long and extend the available instrumental observations in each region by over 150-years. These reconstructions are well correlated with the same regional and large-scale climate dynamics that govern the inter-annual variability of the instrumental wet season rainfall totals. Increased multi-decadal variability is reconstructed after 1950 with the Centrolobium chronologies in the southern Amazon. The Cedrela reconstruction from the eastern Amazon exhibits changes in the spatial pattern of correlation with regional rainfall stations and the large-scale sea surface temperature field after 1990 that may be consistent with recent changes in the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in March over the western Atlantic and South American sector.

Carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges, Alberto V.; Abril, Gwenaël.

2010-05-01

We carried out a literature overview to synthesize current knowledge on CO2 and CH4 dynamics and fluxes with the atmosphere in estuarine environments. Estuarine systems are highly dynamic in terms of carbon cycling and emit CO2 to the atmosphere at rates that are quantitatively significant for the global C cycle. This emission of CO2 to the atmosphere is strongly supported by the net heterotrophic nature of these ecosystems. The robustness of the evaluation of the emission of CO2 from estuarine ecosystems has increased in last years due to increasing data availability and improvements in the surface area estimates by types. At present, the lack of sufficient data is the major limitation in the quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of CO2 fluxes in estuarine environments. Regarding future observations, there is also a need for sustained measurements to unravel inter-annual variability and long-term trends of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Indeed, due to the strong linkage with river catchements, inter-annual variability of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments is expected to be strong. Data used in the present synthesis were either obtained by the authors, data mined from publications or communicated by colleagues. There is a need for publicly available and quality checked data-bases for CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Not only cross-system meta-analysis of data (CO2, CH4, O2, …) can be enlightening as explored in the present work, but also considering the uncertainties in the evaluation of the gas transfer velocity, there could be a need for future re-evaluations of air-water CO2 and CH4 fluxes, requiring access to the raw pCO2 and [CH4] data.

Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Perona, Paolo

2017-07-01

In this study we investigate statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability on inter-annual (3-year) to centennial (100-year) timescales using de-trended semi-partial-cross-correlation analysis technique. To investigate this link we employ observations (AD 1854-1999), climate proxies (AD 1600-1999), and coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). We find robust statistical evidence that Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) has intrinsic positive correlation with solar activity in all datasets employed. The strength of the relationship between AMO and solar activity is modulated by volcanic eruptions and complex interaction among modes of ocean variability. The observational dataset reveals that El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) has statistically significant negative intrinsic correlation with solar activity on decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-27-year) whereas there is no evidence of a link on a typical ENSO timescale (2-7-year). In the observational dataset, the volcanic eruptions do not have a link with AMO on a typical AMO timescale (55-80-year) however the long-term datasets (proxies and SOCOL-MPIOM output) show that volcanic eruptions have intrinsic negative correlation with AMO on inter-annual to multi-decadal timescales. The Pacific decadal oscillation has no link with solar activity, however, it has positive intrinsic correlation with volcanic eruptions on multi-decadal timescales (47-54-year) in reconstruction and decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-32-year) in climate model simulations. We also find evidence of a link between volcanic eruptions and ENSO, however, the sign of relationship is not consistent between observations/proxies and climate model simulations.

Impact of Dust on Mars Surface Albedo and Energy Flux with LMD General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, D.; Flanner, M.; Millour, E.; Martinez, G.

2015-12-01

Mars, just like Earth experience different seasons because of its axial tilt (about 25°). This causes growth and retreat of snow cover (primarily CO2) in Martian Polar regions. The perennial caps are the only place on the planet where condensed H2O is available at surface. On Mars, as much as 30% atmospheric CO2 deposits in each hemisphere depending upon the season. This leads to a significant variation on planet's surface albedo and hence effecting the amount of solar flux absorbed or reflected at the surface. General Circulation Model (GCM) of Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) currently uses observationally derived surface albedo from Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument for the polar caps. These TES albedo values do not have any inter-annual variability, and are independent of presence of any dust/impurity on surface. Presence of dust or other surface impurities can significantly reduce the surface albedo especially during and right after a dust storm. This change will also be evident in the surface energy flux interactions. Our work focuses on combining earth based Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model with current state of GCM to incorporate the impact of dust on Martian surface albedo, and hence the energy flux. Inter-annual variability of surface albedo and planet's top of atmosphere (TOA) energy budget along with their correlation with currently available mission data will be presented.

Confronting the demand and supply of snow seasonal forecasts for ski resorts : the case of French Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubois, Ghislain

2017-04-01

Alpine ski resorts are highly dependent on snow, which availability is characterized by a both a high inter-annual variability and a gradual diminution due to climate change. Due to this dependency to climatic resources, the ski industry is increasingly affected by climate change: higher temperatures limit snow falls, increase melting and limit the possibilities of technical snow making. Therefore, since the seventies, managers drastically improved their practices, both to adapt to climate change and to this inter-annual variability of snow conditions. Through slope preparation and maintenance, snow stock management, artificial snow making, a typical resort can approximately keep the same season duration with 30% less snow. The ski industry became an activity of high technicity The EUPORIAS FP7 (www.euporias.eu) project developed between 2012 and 2016 a deep understanding of the supply and demand conditions for the provision of climate services disseminating seasonal forecasts. In particular, we developed a case study, which allowed conducting several activities for a better understanding of the demand and of the business model of future services applied to the ski industry. The investigations conducted in France inventoried the existing tools and databases, assessed the decision making process and data needs of ski operators, and provided evidences that some discernable skill of seasonal forecasts exist. This case study formed the basis of the recently funded PROSNOW H2020 project. We will present the main results of EUPORIAS project for the ski industry.

Factors Affecting the Inter-annual to Centennial Time Scale Variability of All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

2016-04-01

The All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) is highly important for the livelihood of more than 1 billion people living in the Indian sub-continent. The agriculture of this region is heavily dependent on seasonal (JJAS) monsoon rainfall. An early start or a slight delay of monsoon, or an early withdrawal or prolonged monsoon season may upset the farmer's agricultural plans, can cause significant reduction in crop yield, and hence economic loss. Understanding of AISMR is also vital because it is a part of global atmospheric circulation system. Several studies show that AISMR is influenced by internal climate forcings (ICFs) viz. ENSO, AMO, PDO etc. as well as external climate forcings (ECFs) viz. Greenhouse Gases, volcanic eruptions, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). We investigate the influence of ICFs and ECFs on AISMR using recently developed statistical technique called De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA). DPCCA can analyse a complex system of several interlinked variables. Often, climatic variables, being cross correlated, are simultaneously tele-connected with several other variables and it is not easy to isolate their intrinsic relationship. In the presence of non-stationarities and background signals the calculated correlation coefficients can be overestimated and erroneous. DPCCA method removes the non-stationarities and partials out the influence of background signals from the variables being cross correlated and thus give a robust estimate of correlation. We have performed the analysis using NOAA Reconstructed SSTs and homogenised instrumental AISMR data set from 1854-1999. By employing the DPCCA method we find that there is a statistically insignificant negative intrinsic relation (by excluding the influence of ICFs, and ECFs except TSI) between AISMR and TSI on decadal to centennial time scale. The ICFs considerably modulate the relation between AISMR and solar activity between 50-80 year time scales and transform this relationship to statistically significant positive. We conclude that the positive relation between AISMR and solar activity, as found by other authors, is due to the combined effect of AMO, PDO and multi-decadal ENSO variability on AISMR. The solar activity influences the ICFs and this influence is then transmitted to AISMR. Further, we find that there is statistically positive intrinsic relation between AISMR and AMO from 26 to 100 year time scales which is modulated by ICFs (PDO, ENSO) and ECFs. PDO, ENSO, and solar activity weaken this intrinsic relationship whereas the combined effect of ECFc (solar activity, volcanic eruptions, CO2, & tropospheric aerosol optical depth) results in strengthening of this relationship from 70 to 100 year time scales. There is a negative intrinsic relation between AISMR and PDO which is not statistically significant at any time scale. However this relationship becomes statistically significant only in the presence of combined effect of North Atlantic SSTs and ENSO (4-39 year time scale) and individual effect of TSI (3-26 year time scale) on AISMR. We also find that there is statistical significant negative relationship between AISMR and ENSO on inter-annual to centennial time scale and the strength of this relationship is modulated by solar activity from 3 to 40 year time scale.

Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

DOE PAGES

Zscheischler, Jakob; Fatichi, Simone; Wolf, Sebastian; ...

2016-08-08

Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence ofmore » favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the “most active hours/days” (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.« less

Possible influence of atmospheric circulations on winter haze pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z. Y.

2016-12-01

Using the daily records derived from the synoptic weather stations and the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the variability of the winter haze pollutions (indicated by the mean visibility and number of hazy days) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during the period 1981 to 2015 and its relationship to the atmospheric circulations in middle-high latitude were analyzed in this study. The winter haze pollution in BTH had distinct inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities without a significant long-term trend. According to the spatial distribution of correlation coefficients, six atmospheric circulation indices (I1 to I6) were defined from the key areas in sea level pressure (SLP), zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (U850, V850), geopotential height field at 500 hPa (H500), zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200), and air temperature at 200 hPa (T200), respectively. All of the six indices have significant and stable correlations with the winter visibility and number of hazy days in BTH. The six circulation indices together can explain 77.7% (78.7%) and 61.7% (69.1%) variances of the winter visibility and number of hazy days in the year-to-year (inter-annual) variability, srespectively. The increase of Ic(a comprehensive index derived from the six individual circulation indices) can cause a shallowing of the East Asian trough at the middle troposphere and a weakening of the Siberian high pressure field at sea level, and then accompanied by a reduction (increase) of horizontal advection and vertical convection (relative humidity) in the lowest troposphere and a reduced boundary layer height in BTH and its neighboring areas, which are favorable for the formation of haze pollutions in BTH winter, and vice versa. The high level of the prediction statistics and the reasonable mechanism suggested that the winter haze pollutions in BTH can be forecasted or estimated credibly based on the optimized atmospheric circulation indices. Thus it is helpful for government decision-making departments to take actions in advance in dealing with probably severe haze pollutions in BTH indicated by the atmospheric circulation conditions.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-01

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures.

PubMed

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO's cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Helfrich, J.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.

2000-01-01

1 The role of undisturbed tropical land ecosystems in the global carbon budget is not well understood. It has been suggested that inter-annual climate variability can affect the capacity of these ecosystems to store carbon in the short term. In this paper, we use a transient version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to estimate annual carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems during the period 1980-94, and to understand the underlying causes of the year-to-year variations in net carbon storage for this region. 2 We estimate that the total carbon storage in the undisturbed ecosystems of the Amazon Basin in 1980 was 127.6 Pg C, with about 94.3 Pg C in vegetation and 33.3 Pg C in the reactive pool of soil organic carbon. About 83% of the total carbon storage occurred in tropical evergreen forests. Based on our model's results, we estimate that, over the past 15 years, the total carbon storage has increased by 3.1 Pg C (+ 2%), with a 1.9-Pg C (+2%) increase in vegetation carbon and a 1.2-Pg C (+4%) increase in reactive soil organic carbon. The modelled results indicate that the largest relative changes in net carbon storage have occurred in tropical deciduous forests, but that the largest absolute changes in net carbon storage have occurred in the moist and wet forests of the Basin. 3 Our results show that the strength of interannual variations in net carbon storage of undisturbed ecosystems in the Amazon Basin varies from a carbon source of 0.2 Pg C/year to a carbon sink of 0.7 Pg C/year. Precipitation, especially the amount received during the drier months, appears to be a major controller of annual net carbon storage in the Amazon Basin. Our analysis indicates further that changes in precipitation combine with changes in temperature to affect net carbon storage through influencing soil moisture and nutrient availability. 4 On average, our results suggest that the undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems accumulated 0.2 Pg C/year as a result of climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 over the study period. This amount is large enough to have compensated for most of the carbon losses associated with tropical deforestation in the Amazon during the same period. 5 Comparisons with empirical data indicate that climate variability and CO2 fertilization explain most of the variation in net carbon storage for the undisturbed ecosystems. Our analyses suggest that assessment of the regional carbon budget in the tropics should be made over at least one cycle of El Nino-Southern Oscillation because of inter-annual climate variability. Our analyses also suggest that proper scaling of the site-specific and sub-annual measurements of carbon fluxes to produce Basin-wide flux estimates must take into account seasonal and spatial variations in net carbon storage.

Repeatability of a 3D multi-segment foot model protocol in presence of foot deformities.

PubMed

Deschamps, Kevin; Staes, Filip; Bruyninckx, Herman; Busschots, Ellen; Matricali, Giovanni A; Spaepen, Pieter; Meyer, Christophe; Desloovere, Kaat

2012-07-01

Repeatability studies on 3D multi-segment foot models (3DMFMs) have mainly considered healthy participants which contrasts with the widespread application of these models to evaluate foot pathologies. The current study aimed at establishing the repeatability of the 3DMFM described by Leardini et al. in presence of foot deformities. Foot kinematics of eight adult participants were analyzed using a repeated-measures design including two therapists with different levels of experience. The inter-trial variability was higher compared to the kinematics of healthy subjects. Consideration of relative angles resulted in the lowest inter-session variability. The absolute 3D rotations between the Sha-Cal and Cal-Met seem to have the lowest variability in both therapists. A general trend towards higher σ(sess)/σ(trial) ratios was observed when the midfoot was involved. The current study indicates that not only relative 3D rotations and planar angles can be measured consistently in patients, also a number of absolute parameters can be consistently measured serving as basis for the decision making process. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Addressing the inter-individual variation in response to consumption of plant food bioactives: Towards a better understanding of their role in healthy aging and cardiometabolic risk reduction.

PubMed

Manach, Claudine; Milenkovic, Dragan; Van de Wiele, Tom; Rodriguez-Mateos, Ana; de Roos, Baukje; Garcia-Conesa, Maria Teresa; Landberg, Rikard; Gibney, Eileen R; Heinonen, Marina; Tomás-Barberán, Francisco; Morand, Christine

2017-06-01

Bioactive compounds in plant-based foods have health properties that contribute to the prevention of age-related chronic diseases, particularly cardiometabolic disorders. Conclusive proof and understanding of these benefits in humans is essential in order to provide effective dietary recommendations but, so far, the evidence obtained from human intervention trials is limited and contradictory. This is partly due to differences between individuals in the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion of bioactive compounds, as well as to heterogeneity in their biological response regarding cardiometabolic health outcomes. Identifying the main factors underlying inter-individual differences, as well as developing new and innovative methodologies to account for such variability constitute an overarching goal to ultimately optimize the beneficial health effects of plant food bioactives for each and every one of us. In this respect, this position paper from the COST Action FA1403-POSITIVe examines the main factors likely to affect the individual responses to consumption of plant food bioactives and presents perspectives for assessment and consideration of inter-individual variability. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Nutrition & Food Research published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Precipitation variability inferred from the annual growth and isotopic composition of tropical trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Villalba, R.

2005-12-01

Here we demonstrate that annual growth and isotopic ratios in tropical trees are responsive to seasonal and annual precipitation variability. We identify several regions of tropical South America characterized by significant relationships between oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18O) in precipitation and precipitation amount (r = -0.82). Many of these regions are also sensitive to inter-annual variability in the South American Monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effectiveness of δ 18O and annual growth of tropical trees as a precipitation proxy is validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali vermelho tree growing near Manaus, Brazil (3.1° S, 60.0° S). Growth in Tachigali spp. was highly correlated with both precipitation and cellulose δ 18O (r = 0.60) and precipitation amount was significantly correlated with δ 18O at a lag of approximately one month (r = 0.56). We also report a multi-proxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela odorata growing in the Peruvian Amazon near Puerto Maldonado (12.6° S, 69.2° W) revealing a significant relationship between cellulose and monsoon precipitation over the region (r = -0.33). A 150-year record obtained from Polylepis tarapacana growing at Volcan Granada in Northern Argentina (22.0° S, 66.0° W) is also reported with a significant relationship between local monsoon precipitation and a regionally derived ring width index (r = 0.38). Although no significant relationship was revealed between cellulose δ 18O and precipitation in this taxa at this location, separate radii within the same tree revealed a significantly coherent δ 18O signal (r = 0.38). We compared our proxy chronologies with monsoon precipitation reanalysis data for tropical South America, which revealed key features of the South American Monsoon and their sensitivity to ENSO variability.

Evaluating climate variability and management impacts on carbon dynamics of a temperate forest using a variety of techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arain, M. A.

2015-12-01

Climate variability, extreme weather events, forest age and management history impacts carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. A variety of measurement techniques such as eddy covariance, dendrochronology, automatic soil CO2 chambers and remote sensing are employed fully understand forest carbon dynamics. Here, we present carbon flux measurements from 2003-2014 in a 76-year old managed temperate pine ((-Pinus strobus L.) forest, near Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada. Forest was partially thinned (30% tree harvested) in 1983 and 2012. The thinning in 2012 did not significantly impact carbon fluxes as post-thinning fluxes were within the range of inter-annual variability. Mean annual post-thinning (2012-2104) gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) measure by the eddy covariance technique was 1518 ± 78 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to pre-thinning (2003-2011) GEP of 1384 ± 121 g C m-2·year-1. Over the same period, mean post-thinning net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 185 ± 75 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to post-thinning NEP of 180 ± 70 g C m-2 year-1, indicating that pre-thinning NEP was not significantly different than post-thinning NEP. Only post-thinning mean annual ecosystem respiration (Re; 1322 ± 54 g C m-2 year-1) was higher than pre-thinning Re (1195 ± 101 g C m-2 year-1). Soil CO2 efflux measurements showed similar trends. We also evaluated the impacts of climate variability and management regime on the full life cycle of the forest using annual radial tree-ring growths from 15 trees and compared them with historical climate (temperature and precipitation) data. While the annual growth rates displayed weak correlation with long-term climatic records, the growth was generally reduced during years with extreme drought (-36% of mean annual precipitation) and extreme temperature variability (±0.6 - 1.0°C). Overall, forest was more sensitive to management regime than climate variability. It showed higher growth stress during low light condition after crown closure. When partial thinning was introduced in 1983, it responded slowly and took about 5 to 7 years to show measureable increase in its growth, despite favorable climatic conditions. This study will help to advance our understanding of carbon dynamic of forest ecosystems.

The Amazon Basin in transition

Treesearch

Eric A. Davidson; Alessandro C. de Araujo; Paulo Artaxo; Jennifer K. Balch; I. Foster Brown; Mercedes M.C. Bustamente; Michael T. Coe; Ruth S. DeFriess; Michael Keller; Marcos Longo; J. William Munger; Wilfrid Schroeder; Britaldo Soares-Filho; Carlos M. Souza, Jr.; Steven C. Wofsy

2012-01-01

Agricultural expansion and climate variability have become important agents of disturbance in the Amazon basin. Recent studies have demonstrated considerable resilience of Amazonian forests to moderate annual drought, but they also show that interactions between deforestation, fire and drought potentially lead to losses of carbon storage and changes in regional...

Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono, Jun; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Komuro, Yoshiki; Nodzu, Masato I.; Ishii, Masayoshi

2018-02-01

To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausible mechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to two months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies.

Inter-rater reliability of select physical examination procedures in patients with neck pain.

PubMed

Hanney, William J; George, Steven Z; Kolber, Morey J; Young, Ian; Salamh, Paul A; Cleland, Joshua A

2014-07-01

This study evaluated the inter-rater reliability of select examination procedures in patients with neck pain (NP) conducted over a 24- to 48-h period. Twenty-two patients with mechanical NP participated in a standardized examination. One examiner performed standardized examination procedures and a second blinded examiner repeated the procedures 24-48 h later with no treatment administered between examinations. Inter-rater reliability was calculated with the Cohen Kappa and weighted Kappa for ordinal data while continuous level data were calculated using an intraclass correlation coefficient model 2,1 (ICC2,1). Coefficients for categorical variables ranged from poor to moderate agreement (-0.22 to 0.70 Kappa) and coefficients for continuous data ranged from slight to moderate (ICC2,1 0.28-0.74). The standard error of measurement for cervical range of motion ranged from 5.3° to 9.9° while the minimal detectable change ranged from 12.5° to 23.1°. This study is the first to report inter-rater reliability values for select components of the cervical examination in those patients with NP performed 24-48 h after the initial examination. There was considerably less reliability when compared to previous studies, thus clinicians should consider how the passage of time may influence variability in examination findings over a 24- to 48-h period.

Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-01-01

The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can not be explained by temperature alone and other causes have to be considered.

Adapting to climate variability and change: experiences from cereal-based farming in the central rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Kassie, Belay Tseganeh; Hengsdijk, Huib; Rötter, Reimund; Kahiluoto, Helena; Asseng, Senthold; Van Ittersum, Martin

2013-11-01

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions-the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers' perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new risks outside the range of current experiences. To enable farmers to adapt to these impacts critical technological, institutional, and market-access constraints need to be removed. Inconsistencies between farmers' perceptions and observed climate trends (e.g., decrease in annual rainfall) could lead to sub-optimal or counterproductive adaptations, and therefore must be removed by better communication and capacity building, for example through Climate Field Schools. Enabling strategies, which are among others targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access, and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become integral part of government policies to assist farmers to adapt to the impacts of current and future climate change.

Adapting to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences from Cereal-Based Farming in the Central Rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassie, Belay Tseganeh; Hengsdijk, Huib; Rötter, Reimund; Kahiluoto, Helena; Asseng, Senthold; Van Ittersum, Martin

2013-11-01

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions—the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers’ perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new risks outside the range of current experiences. To enable farmers to adapt to these impacts critical technological, institutional, and market-access constraints need to be removed. Inconsistencies between farmers’ perceptions and observed climate trends (e.g., decrease in annual rainfall) could lead to sub-optimal or counterproductive adaptations, and therefore must be removed by better communication and capacity building, for example through Climate Field Schools. Enabling strategies, which are among others targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access, and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become integral part of government policies to assist farmers to adapt to the impacts of current and future climate change.

Integration of ENSO Signal Power Through Hydrological Processes in the Little River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Jones, J. W.; Bosch, D. D.; Cho, J.

2011-12-01

The relationship of the El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to hydrology is typically discussed in terms of the ability to separate significantly different hydrologic variable responses versus the anomaly that has taken place. Most of the work relating ENSO trends to proxy variables had been done on precipitation records until the mid 1990s, at which point increasing numbers of studies started to focus on ENSO relationships with streamflow as well as other environmental variables. The signals in streamflow are typically complex, representing the integration of both climatic, landscape, and anthropological responses that are able to strengthen the inherent ENSO signal in chaotic regional precipitation data. There is a need to identify climate non-stationarities related to ENSO and their links to watershed-scale outcomes. For risk-management in particular, inter-annual modes of climate variability and their seasonal expression are of interest. In this study, we analyze 36 years of historical monthly streamflow data from the Little River Watershed (LWR), a coastal plain ecosystem in Georgia, in conjunction with wavelet spectral analysis and modeling via the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Using both spectral and physical models allows us to identify the mechanism by which the ENSO signal power in surface and simulated groundwater flow is strengthened as compared to precipitation. The clear increase in the power of the inter-annual climate signal is demonstrated by shared patterns in water budget and exceedance curves, as well as in high ENSO related energy in the 95% significant wavelet spectra for each variable and the NINO 3.4 index. In the LRW, the power of the ENSO teleconnection is increased in both the observed and simulated stream flow through the mechanisms of groundwater flow and interflow, through confinement by a geological layer, the Hawthorn Formation. This non-intuitive relationship between ENSO signal strength and streamflow could prove to be helpful for making seasonal climate predictions in a geographic area with a weaker than desirable ENSO signal, as a predictive relationship could be found between streamflow or other proxy hydro-climatic variables.

Comparative study of airborne Alternaria conidia levels in two cities in Castilla-La Mancha (central Spain), and correlations with weather-related variables.

PubMed

Sabariego, Silvia; Bouso, Veronica; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

2012-01-01

Alternaria conidia are among the airborne biological particles known to trigger allergic respiratory diseases. The presented paper reports on a study of seasonal variations in airborne Alternaria conidia concentrations in 2 cities in the central Spanish region of Castilla-La Mancha, Albacete and Toledo. The influence of weather-related variables on airborne conidia levels and distribution was also analysed. Sampling was carried out from 2008-2010 using a Hirst sampler, following the methodology established by the Spanish Aerobiology Network. Annual airborne Alternaria conidia counts were higher in Toledo (annual mean 3,936 conidia) than in Albacete (annual mean 2,268 conidia). Conidia were detected in the air throughout the year, but levels peaked between May-September. Considerable year-on-year variations were recorded both in total annual counts and in seasonal distribution. A significant positive correlation was generally found between mean daily Alternaria counts and both temperature and hours of sunlight, while a significant negative correlation was recorded for relative humidity, daily and cumulative rainfall, and wind speed. Regression models indicated that between 31%-52% of the variation in airborne Alternaria conidia concentrations could be explained by weather-related variables.

Sea level variability influencing coastal flooding in the Swan River region, Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliot, Matt

2012-02-01

Coastal flooding refers to the incidence of high water levels produced by water level fluctuations of marine origin, rather than riverine floods. An understanding of the amplitude and frequency of high water level events is essential to foreshore management and the design of many coastal and estuarine facilities. Coastal flooding events generally determine public perception of sea level phenomena, as they are commonly associated with erosion events. This investigation has explored the nature of coastal flooding events affecting the Swan River Region, Western Australia, considering water level records at four sites in the estuary and lower river, extending from the mouth of the Swan River to 40 km upstream. The analysis examined the significance of tides, storms and mean sea level fluctuations over both seasonal and inter-annual time scales. The relative timing of these processes is significant for the enhanced or reduced frequency of coastal flooding. These variations overlie net sea level rise previously reported from the coastal Fremantle record, which is further supported by changes to the distribution of high water level events at an estuarine tidal station. Seasonally, coastal flooding events observed in the Swan River region are largely restricted to the period from May to July due to the relative phases of the annual mean sea fluctuation and biannual tidal cycle. Although significant storm surge events occur outside this period, their impact is normally reduced, as they are superimposed on lower tidal and mean sea level conditions. Over inter-annual time scales tide, storminess and mean sea level produce cycles of enhanced and depressed frequency of coastal flooding. For the Swan River region, the inter-annual tidal variation is regular, dominated by the 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle. Storminess and mean sea level variations are independent and irregular, with cycles from 3 to 10 year duration. Since 1960, these fluctuations have not occurred in phase, suggesting that recent historic records may not provide a real indication of inundation risk, exclusive of factors linked to climate change. The burst-like nature of coastal flooding incidents, with respect to frequency, has implications for both public perception and coastal management effort. The result, when combined with sea level rise, produces step-like change, with short periods of frequent coastal flooding, followed by extended, slowly varying quiescent periods. This presents challenges for coastal managers to incorporate variability into projections of future management needs, and to ensure that public and political recognition of coastal flooding hazard is not downplayed during quiet periods.

The need to consider temporal variability when modelling exchange at the sediment-water interface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberry, Donald O.

2011-01-01

Most conceptual or numerical models of flows and processes at the sediment-water interface assume steady-state conditions and do not consider temporal variability. The steady-state assumption is required because temporal variability, if quantified at all, is usually determined on a seasonal or inter-annual scale. In order to design models that can incorporate finer-scale temporal resolution we first need to measure variability at a finer scale. Automated seepage meters that can measure flow across the sediment-water interface with temporal resolution of seconds to minutes were used in a variety of settings to characterize seepage response to rainfall, wind, and evapotranspiration. Results indicate that instantaneous seepage fluxes can be much larger than values commonly reported in the literature, although seepage does not always respond to hydrological processes. Additional study is needed to understand the reasons for the wide range and types of responses to these hydrologic and atmospheric events.

Integrating inter- and intra-annual tree-ring width, carbon isotopes and anatomy: responses to climate variability in a temperate oak forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granda, Elena; Bazot, Stéphane; Fresneau, Chantal; Boura, Anaïs; Faccioni, Georgia; Damesin, Claire

2015-04-01

While many forests are experiencing strong tree declines due to climate change in temperate ecosystems, others nearby to those declining show no apparent signs of decline. This could be due to particular microsite conditions or, for instance, to a higher plasticity of given traits that allow a better performance under stressful conditions. We studied oak functional mechanisms (Quercus petraea) leading to the apparently healthy status of the forest and their relation to the observed climatic variability. This study was conducted in the Barbeau Forest (northern France), where cores from mature trees were collected. Three types of functional traits (secondary growth, physiological variables - δ13C and derived Δ13C and iWUE- and several anatomical ones -e.g. vessel area, density-) were recorded for each ring for the 1991-2011 period, distinguishing EW from LW in all measured traits. Among the three types of functional traits, those related to growth experienced the highest variability both between years and between individuals, followed by anatomical and physiological ones. Secondary growth maintained a constant trend during the study period. Instead, ring, EW and LW δ13C slightly declined from 1991 to 2011. Additional intra-ring δ13C analyses allowed for a more detailed understanding of the seasonal dynamics within each year. In particular, the year 2007 (an especially favorable climatic year during the growing season) showed the lowest δ13C values during the EW-LW transition for the whole study period. Inter-annual anatomical traits varied in their responses, but in general, no temporal trends were found. The results from structural equation modeling (SEM) showed direct relationships of seasonal climate and growth, as well as indirect relationships mediated by anatomical and physiological traits. We further discuss the implications of these results on future forest responses to ongoing climate changes.

Decadal Trends and Common Dynamics of the Bio-Optical and Thermal Characteristics of the African Great Lakes

PubMed Central

Loiselle, Steven; Cózar, Andrés; Adgo, Enyew; Ballatore, Thomas; Chavula, Geoffrey; Descy, Jean Pierre; Harper, David M.; Kansiime, Frank; Kimirei, Ismael; Langenberg, Victor; Ma, Ronghua; Sarmento, Hugo; Odada, Eric

2014-01-01

The Great Lakes of East Africa are among the world’s most important freshwater ecosystems. Despite their importance in providing vital resources and ecosystem services, the impact of regional and global environmental drivers on this lacustrine system remains only partially understood. We make a systematic comparison of the dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal properties of thirteen of the largest African lakes between 2002 and 2011. Lake surface temperatures had a positive trend in all Great Lakes outside the latitude of 0° to 8° south, while the dynamics of those lakes within this latitude range were highly sensitive to global inter-annual climate drivers (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation). Lake surface temperature dynamics in nearly all lakes were found to be sensitive to the latitudinal position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Phytoplankton dynamics varied considerably between lakes, with increasing and decreasing trends. Intra-lake differences in both surface temperature and phytoplankton dynamics occurred for many of the larger lakes. This inter-comparison of bio-optical and thermal dynamics provides new insights into the response of these ecosystems to global and regional drivers. PMID:24699528

Factors contributing to variability in larval ingress of Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lozano, C.; Houde, E. D.

2013-02-01

Annual recruitment levels of age-0 juvenile Atlantic menhaden to Chesapeake Bay, which historically supported >65% of coastwide recruitment, have been consistently low since the 1980s. Diminished larval supply to the Bay is one hypothesized explanation. In a three-year ichthyoplankton survey at the Chesapeake Bay mouth, abundance of ingressing larvae varied nine-fold among years. Larvae were most abundant in 2007-2008 and less abundant in 2005-2006 and 2006-2007. High month-to-month variability in larval concentrations was attributable primarily to seasonality of occurrences. There was no defined spatial pattern in distribution of larvae across the 18-km-wide Bay mouth, but larvae at the south side were longer and older on average than larvae at the middle and north side. Environmental variables measured at the times of larval collections were not correlated consistently with temporal and spatial variability in abundance of larvae at ingress, highlighting complexity and suggesting that abundance may be controlled by processes occurring offshore during the pre-ingress phase. Moreover, the substantial differences in inter-annual abundances of larvae at the Bay mouth were not concordant with subsequent abundances of age-0 juveniles in the three survey years, indicating that important processes affecting recruitment of Atlantic menhaden operate after ingress, during the larval to juvenile transition stage.

The Comparison Of Predictability Of Annual Evapotranspiration And Streamflow Between Humid And Non-Humid Catchments Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Sun, F.; Liu, W.; Wang, H.

2017-12-01

Rapid socioeconomic growth in China is stretching the gap between water supply and demand in recent decades. Expectation of changing climate and its potential threats on the water security of China is now calling for improved methodologies to reliably estimate hydrologic components like annual evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow (Q). Nonetheless, knowledge of these components in humid and non-humid regions is relative limited in current literature. Based on spatially distributed catchments across China, we characterize these components along with plausible explanations. Using Budyko framework, we first found that annual ET is predictable in non-humid regions but not so much in humid regions; annual Q is predictable in humid regions but less reliable in non-humid regions. The neglecting annual water storage change (ΔS) in water balance affects the estimation and variability of annual Q in non-humid catchments more than that in humid catchments, which directly brings about the complexity of predictability of annual Q in non-humid region. While to the ET predictability, the neglecting annual ΔS affects its estimation and variability more in humid catchments than that in non-humid catchments. Moreover, the considerable proportion of contribution from P, PET and their covariance to ET variability in humid catchments against absolutely dominant control of P in non-humid catchments can, to some extent, explain the differences in ET predictability. This provides one possible way to improve the prediction ET and Q, and we can well predict ET in non-humid catchments and Q in humid catchments so far based on commonly used hydrological models.

Workshop on Satellite and In situ Observations for Climate Prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Acker, J.G.; Busalacchi, A.

1995-02-01

Participants in this workshop, which convened in Venice, Italy, 6-8 May 1993, met to consider the current state of climate monitoring programs and instrumentation for the purpose of climatological prediction on short-term (seasonal to interannual) timescales. Data quality and coverage requirements for definition of oceanographic heat and momentum fluxes, scales of inter- and intra-annual variability, and land-ocean-atmosphere exchange processes were examined. Advantages and disadvantages of earth-based and spaceborne monitoring systems were considered, as were the structures for future monitoring networks, research programs, and modeling studies.

Workshop on Satellite and In situ Observations for Climate Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acker, James G.; Busalacchi, Antonio

1995-01-01

Participants in this workshop, which convened in Venice, Italy, 6-8 May 1993, met to consider the current state of climate monitoring programs and instrumentation for the purpose of climatological prediction on short-term (seasonal to interannual) timescales. Data quality and coverage requirements for definition of oceanographic heat and momentum fluxes, scales of inter- and intra-annual variability, and land-ocean-atmosphere exchange processes were examined. Advantages and disadvantages of earth-based and spaceborne monitoring systems were considered, as were the structures for future monitoring networks, research programs, and modeling studies.

Links Between the Deep Western Boundary Current, Labrador Sea Water Formation and Export, and the Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Paul G.; Kulan, Nilgun

2010-05-01

Based on an isopyncal analysis of historical data, 3-year overlapping triad fields of objectively analysed temperature and salinity are produced for the Labrador Sea, covering 1949-1999. These fields are then used to spectrally nudge an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model of the sub-polar gyre, otherwise forced by inter annually varying surface forcing based upon the Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment (CORE). High frequency output from the reanalysis is used to examine Labrador Sea Water formation and its export. A number of different apprpoaches are used to estimate Labrador Sea Water formation, including an instanteous kinematic approach to calculate the annual rate of water mass subduction at a given density range. Historical transports are computed along sections at 53 and 56N for several different water masses for comparison with recent observations, showing a decline in the stength of the deep western boundary current with time. The variability of the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) from the reanalysis is also examined in both depth and density space. Linkages between MOC variability and water mass formation variability is considered.

Seasonal and Inter-annual Phenological Varibility is Greatest in Low-Arctic and Wet Sites Across the North Slope of Alaska as Observed from Multiple Remote Sensing Platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas, S. A., Jr.; Andresen, C. G.; May, J. L.; Oberbauer, S. F.; Hollister, R. D.; Tweedie, C. E.

2017-12-01

The Arctic is experiencing among the most dramatic impacts from climate variability on the planet. Arctic plant phenology has been identified as an ideal indicator of climate change impacts and provides great insight into seasonal and inter-annual vegetative trends and their responses to such changes. Traditionally, phenology has been quantified using satellite-based systems and plot-level observations but each approach presents limitations especially in high latitude regions. Mid-scale systems (e.g. automated sensor platforms and trams) have shown to provide alternative, and in most cases, cheaper solutions with comparable results to those acquired traditionally. This study contributes to the US Arctic Observing Network (AON) and assesses the effectiveness of using digital images acquired from pheno-cams, a kite aerial photography (KAP) system, and plot-level images (PLI) in their capacity to assess phenological variability (e.g. snow melt, greening and end-of-season) for dominant vegetation communities present at two sites in both Utqiagvik and Atqasuk, Alaska, namely the Mobile Instrumented Sensor Platform (MISP) and the Circum-arctic Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) grids. RGB indices (e.g. GEI and %G) acquired from these methods were compared to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) calculated from multispectral ground-based reflectance measurements, which has been identified and used as a proxy of primary productivity across multiple ecosystems including the Arctic. The 5 years of growing season data collected generally resulted with stronger Pearson's correlations between indices located in plots containing higher soil moisture versus those that were drier. Future studies will extend platform inter-comparison to the satellite level by scaling trends to MODIS land surface products. Trends documented thus far, however, suggest that the long-term changes in satellite NDVI for these study areas, could be a direct response from wet tundra landscapes.

The forcing of monthly precipitation variability over Southwest Asia during the Boreal cold season

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Barlow, Mathew; Cannon, Forest; Kelley, Colin; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Southwest Asia, deemed as the region containing the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan, is water scarce and receives nearly 75% of its annual rainfall during8 the boreal cold season of November-April. The forcing of Southwest Asia precipitation has been previously examined for the entire boreal cold season from the perspective of climate variability originating over the Atlantic and tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans. Here, we examine the inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability over Southwest Asia and the atmospheric conditions directly responsible in forcing monthly November-April precipitation. Seasonally averaged November-April precipitation over Southwest Asia is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) patterns consistent with Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the warming trend of SST (Trend). On the contrary, the precipitation variability during individual months of November-April are unrelated and are correlated with SST signatures that include PDV, ENSO and Trend in different combinations. Despite strong inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability during November- April over Southwest Asia, similar atmospheric circulations, highlighted by a stationary equivalent barotropic Rossby wave centered over Iraq, force the monthly spatial distributions of precipitation. Tropospheric waves on the eastern side of the equivalent barotropic Rossby wave modifies the flux of moisture and advects the mean temperature gradient, resulting in temperature advection that is balanced by vertical motions over Southwest Asia. The forcing of monthly Southwest Asia precipitation by equivalent barotropic Rossby waves is different than the forcing by baroclinic Rossby waves associated with tropically-forced-only modes of climate variability.

Drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambeth-Beagles, R. S.; Troch, P. A.

2010-12-01

The Colorado River is the main water supply to the southwest region. As demand reaches the limit of supply in the southwest it becomes increasingly important to understand the dynamics of streamflow in the Colorado River and in particular the tributaries to the lower Colorado River. Climate change may pose an additional threat to the already-scarce water supply in the southwest. Due to the narrowing margin for error, water managers are keen on extending their ability to predict streamflow volumes on a mid-range to decadal scale. Before a predictive streamflow model can be developed, an understanding of the physical drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin is needed. This research addresses this need by applying multiple statistical methods to identify trends, patterns and relationships present in streamflow, precipitation and temperature over the past century in four contributing watersheds to the lower Colorado River. The four watersheds selected were the Paria, Little Colorado, Virgin/Muddy, and Bill Williams. Time series data over a common period from 1906-2007 for streamflow, precipitation and temperature were used for the initial analysis. Through statistical analysis the following questions were addressed: 1) are there observable trends and patterns in these variables during the past century and 2) if there are trends or patterns, how are they related to each other? The Mann-Kendall test was used to identify trends in the three variables. Assumptions regarding autocorrelation and persistence in the data were taken into consideration. Kendall’s tau-b test was used to establish association between any found trends in the data. Initial results suggest there are two primary processes occurring. First, statistical analysis reveals significant upward trends in temperatures and downward trends in streamflow. However, there appears to be no trend in precipitation data. These trends in streamflow and temperature speak to increasing evaporation and transpiration processes. Second, annual variability in streamflow is not statistically correlated with annual temperature variability but appears to be highly correlated with annual precipitation variability. This implies that on a year-to-year basis, changes in streamflow volumes are directly affected by precipitation and not temperature. Future development of a predictive streamflow model will need to take into consideration these two processes to obtain accurate results. In order to extend predictive skill to the multi-year scale relationships between precipitation, temperature and persistent climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Nino/Southern Oscillation will need to be examined.

Effects of land use on the timing and magnitude of dissolved organic carbon and nitrate fluxes: a regional analysis of high-frequency sensor measurements from forested, agricultural, and urban watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seybold, E. C.; Gold, A.; Inamdar, S. P.; Pradhanang, S. M.; Bowden, W. B.; Vaughan, M.; Addy, K.; Shanley, J. B.; Andrew, V.; Sleeper, R.; Levia, D. F., Jr.; Adair, C.; Wemple, B. C.; Schroth, A. W.

2017-12-01

Land use/land cover change has been shown to have significant impacts on nutrient loading to aquatic systems, and has been linked to coastal zone hypoxia and eutrophication of lake ecosystems. While it is clear that changes in land use/land cover are associated with changes in aquatic ecosystem function, a mechanistic understanding of how nutrient fluxes from distinct land cover classes respond to hydrologic events on event and seasonal scales remains unknown. Recent advances in the availability of high-frequency water quality sensors provide an opportunity to assess these relationships at a high temporal resolution. We deployed a network of in-situ spectrophotometers in watersheds with predominantly forested, agricultural, and urban land uses that spanned a latitudinal gradient in the northeastern US from Vermont to Delaware. Our study sought to assess how land cover affected the timing and magnitude of fluxes of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) from watersheds with distinct land uses, and to determine whether these relationships varied regionally. We found systematic differences in the timing and magnitude of C and N fluxes and strong variation in the annual mass fluxes from these distinct land cover classes. In particular, we found that while the phenology of C and N fluxes varied across land uses, there were distinct regional similarities in the C and N flux regimes within a given land use class. We also found strong inter-annual variability in carbon and nitrogen fluxes in response to inter-annual variability in precipitation and discharge, suggesting a high degree of hydrologic control over nutrient loading. These findings also emphasize the potential for climate change, and in particular precipitation variability, to drive strong variation in the magnitude of downstream nutrient flux to receiving lakes and estuaries. Our study emphasizes the pervasive influence of land cover and its effects on water quality, and also highlights the strong signature of anthropogenic land use choices on regional C and N cycling.

Chapter 9 Biochemical variables amongst UK adult dialysis patients in 2010: national and centre-specific analyses.

PubMed

Pruthi, Rishi; Pitcher, David; Dawnay, Anne

2012-01-01

The UK Renal Association clinical practice guidelines include clinical performance measures for biochemical variables in dialysis patients. The UK Renal Registry (UKRR) annually audits dialysis centre performance against these measures as part of its role in promoting continuous quality improvement. Cross sectional performance analyses were undertaken to compare dialysis centre achievement of clinical audit measures for prevalent haemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) cohorts in 2010. The biochemical variables studied were phosphate, adjusted calcium, parathyroid hormone, bicarbonate and total cholesterol. In addition longitudinal analyses were performed (2000-2010) to show changes in achievement of clinical performance measures over time. Fifty-six percent of HD and 69% of PD patients achieved a phosphate within the range recommended by the RA clinical practice guidelines. Seventy-five percent of HD and 76% of PD patients had adjusted calcium between 2.2-2.5 mmol/L. Twenty-eight percent of HD and 31% of PD patients had parathyroid hormone between 16- 32 pmol/L. Sixty percent of HD and 80% of PD patients achieved the audit measure for bicarbonate. There was significant inter-centre variation for all variables studied. The UKRR consistently demonstrates significant inter-centre variation in achievement of biochemical clinical audit measures. Understanding the causes of this variation is an important part of improving the care of dialysis patients in the UK. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Evaluation and inter-comparison of modern day reanalysis datasets over Africa and the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Hobbins, M.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

Reanalysis datasets are potentially very valuable for otherwise data-sparse regions such as Africa and the Middle East. They are potentially useful for long-term climate and hydrologic analyses and, given their availability in real-time, they are particularity attractive for real-time hydrologic monitoring purposes (e.g. to monitor flood and drought events). Generally in data-sparse regions, reanalysis variables such as precipitation, temperature, radiation and humidity are used in conjunction with in-situ and/or satellite-based datasets to generate long-term gridded atmospheric forcing datasets. These atmospheric forcing datasets are used to drive offline land surface models and simulate soil moisture and runoff, which are natural indicators of hydrologic conditions. Therefore, any uncertainty or bias in the reanalysis datasets contributes to uncertainties in hydrologic monitoring estimates. In this presentation, we report on a comprehensive analysis that evaluates several modern-day reanalysis products (such as NASA's MERRA-1 and -2, ECMWF's ERA-Interim and NCEP's CFS Reanalysis) over Africa and the Middle East region. We compare the precipitation and temperature from the reanalysis products with other independent gridded datasets such as GPCC, CRU, and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS precipitation datasets, and CRU's temperature datasets. The evaluations are conducted at a monthly time scale, since some of these independent datasets are only available at this temporal resolution. The evaluations range from the comparison of the monthly mean climatology to inter-annual variability and long-term changes. Finally, we also present the results of inter-comparisons of radiation and humidity variables from the different reanalysis datasets.

Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Hamish; Evans, Jason P.

2018-05-01

High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from - 337 (- 21%) to + 657 (+ 24%) in coastal areas and - 237 (- 12%) to + 1143 (+ 26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from - 11 to + 10 in autumn and - 10 to + 3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty.

Systematic impact assessment on inter-basin water transfer projects of the Hanjiang River Basin in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yanlai; Guo, Shenglian; Hong, Xingjun; Chang, Fi-John

2017-10-01

China's inter-basin water transfer projects have gained increasing attention in recent years. This study proposes an intelligent water allocation methodology for establishing optimal inter-basin water allocation schemes and assessing the impacts of water transfer projects on water-demanding sectors in the Hanjiang River Basin of China. We first analyze water demands for water allocation purpose, and then search optimal water allocation strategies for maximizing the water supply to water-demanding sectors and mitigating the negative impacts by using the Standard Genetic Algorithm (SGA) and Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (AGA), respectively. Lastly, the performance indexes of the water supply system are evaluated under different scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects. The results indicate that: the AGA with adaptive crossover and mutation operators could increase the average annual water transfer from the Hanjiang River by 0.79 billion m3 (8.8%), the average annual water transfer from the Changjiang River by 0.18 billion m3 (6.5%), and the average annual hydropower generation by 0.49 billion kW h (5.4%) as well as reduce the average annual unmet water demand by 0.40 billion m3 (9.7%), as compared with the those of the SGA. We demonstrate that the proposed intelligent water allocation schemes can significantly mitigate the negative impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on the reliability, vulnerability and resilience of water supply to the demanding sectors in water-supplying basins. This study has a direct bearing on more intelligent and effectual water allocation management under various scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects.

The seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea: model results against satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton; Sein, Dmitry; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Gorchakov, Victor; Pugalova, Svetlana

2015-04-01

This study is aimed at modelling the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea in the modern period. Adequate description of marine ecosystems in the ice-covered seas crucially depends on the accuracy in determining of thicknesses of ice and snow on the sea surface which control penetrating photosynthetically active radiation under the ice. One of the few models of ice able to adequately reproduce the dynamics of sea ice is the sea ice model HELMI [1], containing 7 different categories of ice. This model has been imbedded into the Princeton Ocean Model. With this coupled model 2 runs for the period 1998-2007 were performed under different atmospheric forcing prescribed from NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 archives. For prescribing conditions at the open boundary, all the necessary information about the horizontal velocity, level, temperature and salinity of the water, ice thickness and compactness was taken from the results of the global ocean general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) MPIOM [2]. The resulting solution with NCEP forcing with a high accuracy simulates the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from MODIS data. The maximum difference between the calculated and satellite-derived SSTs (averaged over 4 selected areas of the Barents Sea) during the period 2000-2007 does not exceed 1.5 °C. Seasonal and inter-annual variations in the area of ice cover are also in good agreement with satellite-derived estimates. Pelagic ecosystem model developed in [3] has been coupled into the above hydrodynamic model and used to calculate the changes in the characteristics of marine ecosystems under NCEP forcing. Preliminarily the ecosystem model has been improved by introducing a parameterization of detritus deposition on the bottom and through the selection of optimal parameters for photosynthesis and zooplankton grazing, providing a solution having acceptable agreement with SeaWiFS estimates of surface chlorophyll "a" concentration. The solution for the period 1998-2007 correctly reproduces the start and end of vegetation period, and, with satisfactory accuracy, the level of the spring phytoplankton bloom, but systematically overestimates the SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations in the northern part of the sea and in the summer everywhere except for the southern part. According to the results, the region of phytoplankton blooming during the spring outbreak is bounded by the western boundary of the sea and the edge of solid ice. This work was supported by RFBR project № 13-05-00652 References 1. Haapala, J., Lönnroth, N., Stössel, A., 2005. A numerical study of open water formation in sea ice. J. Geophys. Res., V. 110(C9). P.1-17: doi: 10.1029/2003JC002200. 2. Gröger M., E. Maier-Reimer, U. Mikolajewicz, A. Moll, and D. Sein, 2013. NW European shelf under climate warming: implications for open ocean - shelf exchange, primary production, and carbon absorption. Biogeosciences, vol.10, 3767-3792, doi:10.5194/bg-10-3767-2013. 3. Anderson T.R., V. A. Ryabchenko; M. J. Fasham; V. A. Gorchakov. Denitrification in the Arabian Sea: A 3D ecosystem modeling study. Deep-Sea Research, Part I, V. 54, Issue 12, 2007, 2082-2119

Universal Inverse Power-Law Distribution for Fractal Fluctuations in Dynamical Systems: Applications for Predictability of Inter-Annual Variability of Indian and USA Region Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvam, A. M.

2017-01-01

Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and, therefore, the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and standard deviation cannot be used for description and quantification of fractal data sets. The author has developed a general systems theory based on classical statistical physics for fractal fluctuations which predicts the following. (1) The fractal fluctuations signify an underlying eddy continuum, the larger eddies being the integrated mean of enclosed smaller-scale fluctuations. (2) The probability distribution of eddy amplitudes and the variance (square of eddy amplitude) spectrum of fractal fluctuations follow the universal Boltzmann inverse power law expressed as a function of the golden mean. (3) Fractal fluctuations are signatures of quantum-like chaos since the additive amplitudes of eddies when squared represent probability densities analogous to the sub-atomic dynamics of quantum systems such as the photon or electron. (4) The model predicted distribution is very close to statistical normal distribution for moderate events within two standard deviations from the mean but exhibits a fat long tail that are associated with hazardous extreme events. Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses of available GHCN annual total rainfall time series for the period 1900-2008 for Indian and USA stations show that the power spectra and the corresponding probability distributions follow model predicted universal inverse power law form signifying an eddy continuum structure underlying the observed inter-annual variability of rainfall. On a global scale, man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming would result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference to possible prediction of climate change. Model concepts, if correct, rule out unambiguously, linear trends in climate. Climate change will only be manifested as increase or decrease in the natural variability. However, more stringent tests of model concepts and predictions are required before applications to such an important issue as climate change. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate (O'Gorman in Curr Clim Change Rep 1:49-59, 2015).

Secular change and inter-annual variability of the Gulf Stream position, 1993-2013, 70°-55°W

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisagni, James J.; Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Sanchez-Franks, Alejandra

2017-07-01

The Gulf Stream (GS) is the northeastward-flowing surface limb of the Atlantic Ocean's meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) ;conveyer belt; that flows towards Europe and the Nordic Seas. Changes in the GS position after its separation from the coast at Cape Hatteras, i.e., from 75°W to 50°W, may be key to understanding the AMOC, sea level variability and ecosystem behavior along the east coast of North America. In this study we compare secular change and inter-annual variability (IAV) of the Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW) position with equator-ward Labrador Current (LC) transport along the southwestern Grand Banks near 52°W using 21 years (1993-2013) of satellite altimeter data. Results at 55°, 60°, and 65°W show a significant southward (negative) secular trend for the GSNW, decreasing to a small but insignificant southward trend at 70°W. IAV of de-trended GSNW position residuals also decreases to the west. The long-term secular trend of annual mean upper layer (200 m) LC transport near 52°W is positive. Furthermore, IAV of LC transport residuals near 52°W along the southwestern Grand Banks are significantly correlated with GSNW position residuals at 55°W at a lag of +1-year, with positive (negative) LC transport residuals corresponding to southward (northward) GSNW positions one year later. The Taylor-Stephens index (TSI) computed from the first principal component of the GSNW position from 79° to 65°W shows a similar relationship with a more distal LC index computed along altimeter ground track 250 located north of the Grand Banks across Hamilton Bank in the western Labrador Sea. Increased (decreased) sea height differences along ground track 250 are significantly correlated with a more southward (northward) TSI two years later (lag of +2-years). Spectral analysis of IAV reveals corresponding spectral peaks at 5-7 years and 2-3 years for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), GSNW (70°-55°W) and LC transport near 52°W for the 1993-2013 period suggesting a connection between these phenomena. An upper-layer (200 m) slope water volume calculation using the LC IAV rms residual of +1.04 Sv near 52°W results in an estimated GSNW IAV residual of 79 km, or 63% of the observed 125.6 km (1.13°) rms value at 55°W. A similar upper-layer slope water volume calculation using the positive long-term, upper-layer LC transport trend accounts for 68% of the mean observed secular southward shift of the GSNW between 55° and 70°W over the 1993-2013 period. Our work provides additional observational evidence of important interactions between the upper layers of the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyres within the North Atlantic over both secular and inter-annual time scales as suggested by previous studies.

Estimating fire severity and carbon emissions over Australian tropical savannas based on passive microwave satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Liu, Y.; Evans, J. P.; Parinussa, R.

2017-12-01

Carbon emissions from large-scale fire activity over the Australian tropical savannas have strong inter-annual variability, due mainly to variations in fuel accumulation in response to rainfall. We investigated the use of a recently developed satellite-based vegetation optical depth (VOD) dataset to estimate fire severity and carbon emission. VOD is sensitive to the dynamics of all aboveground vegetation and available nearly every two days. For areas burned during 2003 - 2010, we calculated the VOD change (ΔVOD) pre- and post-fire and the associated loss in above ground biomass carbon. Both results compare well with widely-accepted approaches: ΔVOD agreed well with the Normalized Burn Ratio change (ΔNBR) and carbon loss with modelled emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). We found that the ΔVOD and ΔNBR are generally linearly related. The Pearson correlation coefficients (R) between VOD- and GFED-based fire carbon emissions for monthly and annual total estimates are very high, 0.92 and 0.96 respectively. A key feature of fire carbon emissions is the strong inter-annual variation, ranging from 21.1 million tonnes in 2010 to 84.3 million tonnes in 2004. This study demonstrates that a reasonable estimate of fire carbon emissions can be achieved in a timely manner based on multiple satellite observations over the regions where the emissions are primarily from aboveground vegetation loss, which can be complementary to the currently used approaches.

Spatial and Temporal Dust Source Variability in Northern China Identified Using Advanced Remote Sensing Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taramelli, A.; Pasqui, M.; Barbour, J.; Kirschbaum, D.; Bottai, L.; Busillo, C.; Calastrini, F.; Guarnieri, F.; Small, C.

2013-01-01

The aim of this research is to provide a detailed characterization of spatial patterns and temporal trends in the regional and local dust source areas within the desert of the Alashan Prefecture (Inner Mongolia, China). This problem was approached through multi-scale remote sensing analysis of vegetation changes. The primary requirements for this regional analysis are high spatial and spectral resolution data, accurate spectral calibration and good temporal resolution with a suitable temporal baseline. Landsat analysis and field validation along with the low spatial resolution classifications from MODIS and AVHRR are combined to provide a reliable characterization of the different potential dust-producing sources. The representation of intra-annual and inter-annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trend to assess land cover discrimination for mapping potential dust source using MODIS and AVHRR at larger scale is enhanced by Landsat Spectral Mixing Analysis (SMA). The combined methodology is to determine the extent to which Landsat can distinguish important soils types in order to better understand how soil reflectance behaves at seasonal and inter-annual timescales. As a final result mapping soil surface properties using SMA is representative of responses of different land and soil cover previously identified by NDVI trend. The results could be used in dust emission models even if they are not reflecting aggregate formation, soil stability or particle coatings showing to be critical for accurately represent dust source over different regional and local emitting areas.

Exploring the Application of Optical Remote Sensing as a Method to Estimate the Depth of Backwater Nursery Habitats of the Colorado Pikeminnow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamada, Yuki; LaGory, Kirk E.

2016-02-01

Low-velocity channel-margin habitats serve as important nursery habitats for the endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) in the middle Green River between Jensen and Ouray, Utah. These habitats, known as backwaters, are associated with emergent sand bars, and are shaped and reformed annually by peak flows. A recent synthesis of information on backwater characteristics and the factors that influence inter-annual variability in those backwaters (Grippo et al. 2015) evaluated detailed survey information collected annually since 2003 on a relatively small sample of backwaters, as well as reach-wide evaluations of backwater surface area from aerial and satellite imagery. An approach is neededmore » to bridge the gap between these detailed surveys, which estimate surface area, volume, and depth, and the reach-wide assessment of surface area to enable an assessment of the amount of habitat that meets the minimum depth requirements for suitable habitat.« less

The carbon cycle and hurricanes in the United States between 1900 and 2011.

PubMed

Dahal, Devendra; Liu, Shuguang; Oeding, Jennifer

2014-06-06

Hurricanes cause severe impacts on forest ecosystems in the United States. These events can substantially alter the carbon biogeochemical cycle at local to regional scales. We selected all tropical storms and more severe events that made U.S. landfall between 1900 and 2011 and used hurricane best track database, a meteorological model (HURRECON), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), U. S. Department of Agirculture Forest Service biomass dataset, and pre- and post-MODIS data to quantify individual event and annual biomass mortality. Our estimates show an average of 18.2 TgC/yr of live biomass mortality for 1900-2011 in the US with strong spatial and inter-annual variability. Results show Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused the highest aboveground biomass mortality with 59.5 TgC. Similarly 1954 had the highest annual mortality with 68.4 TgC attributed to landfalling hurricanes. The results presented are deemed useful to further investigate historical events, and the methods outlined are potentially beneficial to quantify biomass loss in future events.

Inter-annual variability of year-round NEE over 18 years, and environmental controls on seasonal patterns at an arctic wet sedge tundra, CMDL Barrow, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalhori, A. A. M.; Oechel, W. C.; Goodrich, J. P.; Gioli, B.; Burba, G. G.; Shen, S. S. P.; Murphy, P.; Zona, D.

2016-12-01

To refine understanding of the total annual carbon balance in the Arctic, it is critical to extend long-term site-level CO2 flux data collection. These data are critical to addressing the environmental controls and processes responsible for temporal variability and seasonal patterns of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE). This dataset represents the longest running eddy covariance tower in the Arctic, which is located in an Alaskan wet sedge tundra ecosystem and is adjacent to the NOAA Climate Monitoring & Diagnostic Laboratory (CMDL). In addition to analyzing the year-to-year controls on NEE and its long-term trends, this work will complement a parallel study of the 40 year record of CO2 concentration measurements from the NOAA Barrow synoptic sampling station. For long-term, retrospective measurements, missing values are unavoidable, resulting from system failure, sensors icing-up during winter, losing network connections due to the harsh conditions, necessary instrument repairs, etc. Therefore, to analyze the annual sums, diurnal patterns, and seasonal vs. annual fluxes, the choice of gap-filling approach is critical and can dominate the magnitude of uncertainties, especially for periods with long gaps (> 1 month). We have applied different gap-filling methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), and multiple linear regression (MLR) driven by micrometeorological parameters in an effort to minimize the associated uncertainties. Following gap-filling, a stepwise multiple regression against meteorological drivers including average summer PAR, average air and soil temperature, growing season length, duration of the zero curtain, growing degree days (GDD), date of snow melt, date of freeze up, and length of the summer was applied to determine the parameters that best explain the magnitude and sign of NEE in different seasons. These statistical analyses show that growing degree days were strongly correlated with summer NEE, which increased with higher GDD (greater carbon sink). Inter-annual NEE was particularly sensitive to dry conditions in this wet sedge tundra. However, we found that growing season NEE has significantly increased since early 2000, due primarily to increases in CO2 uptake during the initial spring thaw period and the June-August growing season.

Simulation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific based on CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Haibo; Zhou, Weican; Zhao, Haikun

2017-09-01

Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965-2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) methods are applied to produce the ensemble large-scale environmental factors of the CMIP5 model outputs. The environmental factors generated by BMA and EMA methods are compared, as well as the corresponding TC simulations by the downscaling system. Results indicate that BMA method shows a significant advantage over the EMA. In addition, impacts of model selections on BMA method are examined. To each factor, ten models with better performance are selected from 30 CMIP5 models and then conduct BMA, respectively. As a consequence, the ensemble environmental factors and simulated TC activity are similar with the results from the 30 models' BMA, which verifies the BMA method can afford corresponding weight for each model in the ensemble based on the model's predictive skill. Thereby, the existence of poor performance models will not particularly affect the BMA effectiveness and the ensemble outcomes are improved. Finally, based upon the BMA method and downscaling system, we analyze the sensitivity of TC activity to three important environmental factors, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), large-scale steering flow, and vertical wind shear. Among three factors, SST and large-scale steering flow greatly affect TC tracks, while average intensity distribution is sensitive to all three environmental factors. Moreover, SST and vertical wind shear jointly play a critical role in the inter-annual variability of TC lifetime maximum intensity and frequency of intense TCs.

Small-scale variations of climate change in mountainous forested terrain - a regional study from H.J. Andrews Long Term Ecological Research site in Oregon, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honzakova, Katerina; Hoffmann, Peter; Jones, Julia; Thomas, Christoph

2017-04-01

There has been conflicting evidence as to whether high elevations are experiencing more pronounced climate warming than lower elevations in mountainous regions. In this study we analyze temperature records from H.J. Andrews Long Term Ecological Research, Oregon, USA and several nearby areas, comprising together 28 stations located in Cascade Mountains. The data, starting in 1958, are first checked for quality and homogenized using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test. As a reference, composite climate time series based on the Global Historic Climate Network is created and together with cross-referencing against station records used to correct breaks and shifts in the data. In the next step, we investigate temperature patterns of the study site from 1958 to 2016 and compare them for valley and hill stations. In particular, we explore seasonality and inter-annual variability of the records and trends of the last day of frost. Additionally, 'cold' sums (positive and negative) are calculated to obtain a link between temperature and ecosystems' responses (such as budbreaks). So far, valley stations seem to be more prone to climate change than ridge or summit stations, contrary to current thinking. Building on previous knowledge, we attempt to provide physical explanations for the temperature records, focusing on wind patterns and associated phenomena such as cold air drainage and pooling. To aid this we analyze wind speed and direction data available for some of the stations since 1996, including seasonality and inter-annual variability of the observed flows.

Temporal variations of NDVI and correlations between NDVI and hydro-climatological variables at Lake Baiyangdian, China.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Wang, Xuan; Zhao, Ying; Yang, Zhifeng

2014-09-01

In this paper, correlations between vegetation dynamics (represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) and hydro-climatological factors were systematically studied in Lake Baiyangdian during the period from April 1998 to July 2008. Six hydro-climatological variables including lake volume, water level, air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and sunshine duration were used, as well as extracted NDVI series data representing vegetation dynamics. Mann-Kendall tests were used to detect trends in NDVI and hydro-climatological variation, and a Bayesian information criterion method was used to detect their abrupt changes. A redundancy analysis (RDA) was used to determine the major hydro-climatological factors contributing to NDVI variation at monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales. The results were as follows: (1) the trend analysis revealed that only sunshine duration significantly increased over the study period, with an inter-annual increase of 3.6 h/year (p < 0.01), whereas inter-annual NDVI trends were negligible; (2) the abrupt change detection showed that a major hydro-climatological change occurred in 2004, when abrupt changes occurred in lake volume, water level, and sunlight duration; and (3) the RDA showed that evaporation and temperature were highly correlated with monthly changes in NDVI. At larger time scales, however, water level and lake volume gradually became more important than evaporation and precipitation in terms of their influence on NDVI. These results suggest that water availability is the most important factor in vegetation restoration. In this paper, we recommend a practical strategy for lake ecosystem restoration that takes into account changes in NDVI.

The Influences of Drought and Land-Cover Conversion on Inter-Annual Variation of NPP in the Three-North Shelterbelt Program Zone of China Based on MODIS Data

PubMed Central

Wu, Chaoyang; Zhang, Bing; Huete, Alfredo; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Sun, Rui; Lei, Liping; Huang, Wenjing; Liu, Liangyun; Liu, Xinjie; Li, Jun; Luo, Shezhou; Fang, Bin

2016-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems greatly contribute to carbon (C) emission reduction targets through photosynthetic C uptake.Net primary production (NPP) represents the amount of atmospheric C fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP) zone accounts for more than 40% of China’s landmass. This zone has been the scene of several large-scale ecological restoration efforts since the late 1990s, and has witnessed significant changes in climate and human activities.Assessing the relative roles of different causal factors on NPP variability in TNSP zone is very important for establishing reasonable local policies to realize the emission reduction targets for central government. In this study, we examined the relative roles of drought and land cover conversion(LCC) on inter-annual changes of TNSP zone for 2001–2010. We applied integrated correlation and decomposition analyses to a Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and MODIS land cover dataset. Our results show that the 10-year average NPP within this region was about 420 Tg C. We found that about 60% of total annual NPP over the study area was significantly correlated with SPEI (p<0.05). The LCC-NPP relationship, which is especially evident for forests in the south-central area, indicates that ecological programs have a positive impact on C sequestration in the TNSP zone. Decomposition analysis generally indicated that the contributions of LCC, drought, and other Natural or Anthropogenic activities (ONA) to changes in NPP generally had a consistent distribution pattern for consecutive years. Drought and ONA contributed about 74% and 23% to the total changes in NPP, respectively, and the remaining 3% was attributed to LCC. Our results highlight the importance of rainfall supply on NPP variability in the TNSP zone. PMID:27348303

Evaluating the ecosystem water use efficiency and gross primary productivity in boreal forest based on tree ring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, S.; Zhuang, Q.

2016-12-01

Climatic change affects the plant physiological and biogeochemistry processes, and therefore on the ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE). Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of WUE would help us understand the adaptability of ecosystem to variable climate conditions. Tree ring data have great potential in addressing the forest response to climatic changes compared with mechanistic model simulations, eddy flux measurement and manipulative experiments. Here, we collected the tree ring isotopic carbon data in 12 boreal forest sites to develop a multiple linear regression model, and the model was extrapolated to the whole boreal region to obtain the WUE spatial and temporal variation from 1948 to 2010. Two algorithms were also used to estimate the inter-annual gross primary productivity (GPP) based on our derived WUE. Our results demonstrated that most of boreal regions showed significant increasing WUE trend during the period except parts of Alaska. The spatial averaged annual mean WUE was predicted to increase by 13%, from 2.3±0.4 g C kg-1 H2O at 1948 to 2.6±0.7 g C kg-1 H2O at 2012, which was much higher than other land surface models. Our predicted GPP by the WUE definition algorithm was comparable with site observation, while for the revised light use efficiency algorithm, GPP estimation was higher than site observation as well as than land surface models. In addition, the increasing GPP trends by two algorithms were similar with land surface model simulations. This is the first study to evaluate regional WUE and GPP in forest ecosystem based on tree ring data and future work should consider other variables (elevation, nitrogen deposition) that influence tree ring isotopic signals and the dual-isotope approach may help improve predicting the inter-annual WUE variation.

High and variable mortality of leatherback turtles reveal possible anthropogenic impacts.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, P; Robinson, N J; Sanz-Aguilar, A; Spotila, J R; Paladino, F V; Tavecchia, G

2017-08-01

The number of nesting leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the eastern Pacific Ocean has declined dramatically since the late 1980s. This decline has been attributed to egg poaching and interactions with fisheries. However, it is not clear how much of the decline should also be ascribed to variability in the physical characteristics of the ocean. We used data on individually marked turtles that nest at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, to address whether climatic variability affects survival and inter-breeding interval. Because some turtles might nest undetected, we used capture-recapture models to model survival probability accounting for a detection failure. In addition, as the probability of reproduction is constrained by past nesting events, we formulated a new parameterization to estimate inter-breeding intervals and contrast hypotheses on the role of climatic covariates on reproductive frequency. Average annual survival for the period 1993-2011 was low (0.78) and varied over time ranging from 0.49 to 0.99 with a negative temporal trend mainly due to the high mortality values registered after 2004. Survival probability was not associated with the Multivariate ENSO Index of the South Pacific Ocean (MEI) but this index explained 24% of the temporal variability in the reproductive frequency. The probability of a turtle to permanently leave after the first encounter was 26%. This high proportion of transients might be associated with a high mortality cost of the first reproduction or with a long-distance nesting dispersal after the first nesting season. Although current data do not allow separating these two hypotheses, low encounter rate at other locations and high investment in reproduction, supports the first hypothesis. The low and variable annual survival probability has largely contributed to the decline of this leatherback population. The lack of correlation between survival probability and the most important climatic driver of oceanic processes in the Pacific discards a climate-related decline and point to anthropogenic sources of mortality as the main causes responsible for the observed population decline. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Reconstructing medieval climate in the tropical North Atlantic with corals from Anegada, British Virgin Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilbourne, K. H.; Xu, Y. Y.

2014-12-01

Resolving the patterns of climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is key for exploring forced versus unforced variability during the last 1000 years. Tropical Atlantic climate is currently not well resolved during the MCA despite it being an important source of heat and moisture to the climate system today. To fill this data gap, we collected cores from Diploria strigosa corals brought onto the low-lying island of Anegada, British Virgin Islands (18.7˚N, 64.3˚S) during an overwash event and use paired analysis of Sr/Ca and δ18O in the skeletal aragonite to explore climate in the tropical Atlantic at the end of the MCA. The three sub-fossil corals used in this analysis overlap temporally and together span the years 1256-1372 C.E. An assessment of three modern corals from the study site indicates that the most robust features of climate reconstructions using Sr/Ca and δ18O in this species are the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability. The modern seasonal temperature range is 2.8 degrees Celsius and the similarity between the modern and sub-fossil coral Sr/Ca indicates a similar range during the MCA. Today seasonal salinity changes locally are driven in large part by the migration of a regional salinity front. The modern corals capture the related large seasonal seawater δ18O change, but the sub-fossil corals indicate stable seawater δ18O throughout the year, supporting the idea that this site remained on one side of the salinity front continuously throughout the year. Inter-annual variability in the region is influenced by the cross-equatorial SST gradient, the North Atlantic Oscillation and ENSO. Gridded instrumental SST from the area surrounding Anegada and coral geochemical records from nearby Puerto Rico demonstrate concentrations of variance in specific frequency bands associated with these phenomena. The sub-fossil coral shows no concentration of variance in the modern ENSO frequency band, consistent with reduced ENSO variability found in central Pacific corals growing at the same time.

Nutrient loads exported from managed catchments reveal emergent biogeochemical stationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Nandita B.; Destouni, Georgia; Jawitz, James W.; Thompson, Sally E.; Loukinova, Natalia V.; Darracq, Amélie; Zanardo, Stefano; Yaeger, Mary; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rao, P. Suresh C.

2010-12-01

Complexity of heterogeneous catchments poses challenges in predicting biogeochemical responses to human alterations and stochastic hydro-climatic drivers. Human interferences and climate change may have contributed to the demise of hydrologic stationarity, but our synthesis of a large body of observational data suggests that anthropogenic impacts have also resulted in the emergence of effective biogeochemical stationarity in managed catchments. Long-term monitoring data from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) and the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) reveal that inter-annual variations in loads (LT) for total-N (TN) and total-P (TP), exported from a catchment are dominantly controlled by discharge (QT) leading inevitably to temporal invariance of the annual, flow-weighted concentration, $\\overline{Cf = (LT/QT). Emergence of this consistent pattern across diverse managed catchments is attributed to the anthropogenic legacy of accumulated nutrient sources generating memory, similar to ubiquitously present sources for geogenic constituents that also exhibit a linear LT-QT relationship. These responses are characteristic of transport-limited systems. In contrast, in the absence of legacy sources in less-managed catchments, $\\overline{Cf values were highly variable and supply limited. We offer a theoretical explanation for the observed patterns at the event scale, and extend it to consider the stochastic nature of rainfall/flow patterns at annual scales. Our analysis suggests that: (1) expected inter-annual variations in LT can be robustly predicted given discharge variations arising from hydro-climatic or anthropogenic forcing, and (2) water-quality problems in receiving inland and coastal waters would persist until the accumulated storages of nutrients have been substantially depleted. The finding has notable implications on catchment management to mitigate adverse water-quality impacts, and on acceleration of global biogeochemical cycles.

Spatial and temporal variations of thunderstorm activities over Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnadara, Upul

2016-05-01

Spatial and temporal variation of frequencies of thunderstorms over Sri Lanka using thunder day data is presented. A thunder day is simply a calendar day in which thunder is heard at least once at a given location. Two sets of data were collected and analyzed: annual totals for 10 climatological stations for a period of 50 years and monthly totals for 20 climatological stations for a period of 20 years. The average annual thunder days over Sri Lanka was found to be 76. Among the climatological stations considered, a high number of annual thunder days was recorded in Ratnapura (150 days/year), followed by Colombo (108 days/year) and Bandarawela (106 days/year). It appears that there are no widespread long-term increasing or decreasing trends in thunderstorm frequencies. However, Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka which has over two million people shows an increasing trend of 0.8 thunder days per year. Although there is a high variability between stations reporting the number of thunder days, the overall pattern within a year is clear. Thunderstorm frequencies are high during two periods: March-May and September-November, which coincide with the first inter-monsoon and second inter-monsoon periods. Compared to the dry zone, the wet zone, especially the southwestern region, has high thunderstorm activity. There is a clear spatial difference in thunderstorm activities during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. During both these seasons, enhanced thunderstorm activities are reported on the leeward side of the mountain range. A slight reduction in the thunderstorm activities was found in the high elevation areas of the hill country compared to the surrounding areas. A lightning ground flash density map derived using annual thunder days is also presented.

Delineating recurrent fish spawning habitats in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelièvre, S.; Vaz, S.; Martin, C. S.; Loots, C.

2014-08-01

The functional value of spawning habitats makes them critically important for the completion of fish life cycles and spawning grounds are now considered to be “essential habitats”. Inter-annual fluctuations in spawning ground distributions of dab (Limanda Limanda), plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), cod (Gadus morhua) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus) were investigated in the southern North Sea and eastern English Channel, from 2006 to 2009. The preferential spawning habitats of these species were modelled using generalised linear models, with egg distribution being used as proxy of spawners' location. Egg spatial and temporal distributions were explored based on six environmental variables: sea surface temperature and salinity, chlorophyll a concentration, depth, bedstress and seabed sediment types. In most cases, egg density was found to be strongly related to these environmental variables. Egg densities were positively correlated with shallow to intermediate depths having low temperature and relatively high salinity. Habitat models were used to map annual, i.e. 2006 to 2009, winter spatial distributions of eggs, for each species separately. Then, annual maps were combined to explore the spatial variability of each species' spawning grounds, and define recurrent, occasional, rare and unfavourable spawning areas. The recurrent spawning grounds of all four species were located in the south-eastern part of the study area, mainly along the Dutch and German coasts. This study contributes knowledge necessary to the spatial management of fishery resources in the area, and may also be used to identify marine areas with particular habitat features that need to be preserved.

The Energetics of Transient Eddies in the Martian Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battalio, Joseph Michael; Szunyogh, Istvan; Lemmon, Mark T.

2016-10-01

The energetics of northern hemisphere transient waves in the Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation is analyzed. Three periods between the fall and spring equinoxes (Ls=200°-230°, 255°-285°, and 330°-360°) during three Mars Years are selected to exemplify the fall, winter, and spring wave activity. Fall and spring eddy energetics is similar with some inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability, but winter eddy kinetic energy and its transport are strongly reduced in intensity as a result of the solsticial pause in eddy activity. Barotropic energy conversion acts as a sink of eddy kinetic energy throughout the northern hemisphere eddy period with little reduction in amplitude during the solsticial pause. Baroclinic energy conversion acts as a source in fall and spring but disappears during the winter period as a result of the stabilized vertical shear profile of the westerly jet around winter solstice.

Analysis of the historical precipitation in the South East Iberian Peninsula at different spatio-temporal scale. Study of the meteorological drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Chacón, Francisca; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Jiménez-Sánchez, Jorge; Luque-Espinar, Juan Antonio

2017-04-01

Precipitation is a fundamental climate variable that has a pronounced spatial and temporal variability on a global scale, as well as at regional and sub-regional scales. Due to its orographic complexity and its latitude the Iberian Peninsula (IP), located to the west of the Mediterranean Basin between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, has a complex climate. Over the peninsula there are strong north-south and east-west gradients, as a consequence of the different low-frequency atmospheric patterns, and he overlap of these over the year will be determinants in the variability of climatic variables. In the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula dominates a dry Mediterranean climate, the precipitation is characterized as being an intermittent and discontinuous variable. In this research information coming from the Spain02 v4 database was used to study the South East (SE) IP for the 1971-2010 period with a spatial resolution of 0.11 x 0.11. We analysed precipitation at different time scale (daily, monthly, seasonal, annual,…) to study the spatial distribution and temporal tendencies. The high spatial, intra-annual and inter-annual climatic variability observed makes it necessary to propose a climatic regionalization. In addition, for the identified areas and subareas of homogeneous climate we have analysed the evolution of the meteorological drought for the same period at different time scales. The standardized precipitation index has been used at 12, 24 and 48 month temporal scale. The climatic complexity of the area determines a high variability in the drought characteristics, duration, intensity and frequency in the different climatic areas. This research has been supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02 project for the data provided for this study.

To what extent does climate explain variations in reported malaria cases in early 20th century Uganda?

PubMed

Tompkins, Adrian M; Larsen, Laragh; McCreesh, Nicky; Taylor, David

2016-03-31

Malaria case statistics were analysed for the period 1926 to 1960 to identify inter-annual variations in malaria cases for the Uganda Protectorate. The analysis shows the mid-to-late 1930s to be a period of increased reported cases. After World War II, malaria cases trend down to a relative minimum in the early 1950s, before increasing rapidly after 1953 to the end of the decade. Data for the Western Province confirm these national trends, which at the time were attributed to a wide range of causes, including land development and management schemes, population mobility, interventions and misdiagnosis. Climate was occasionally proposed as a contributor to enhanced case numbers, and unusual precipitation patterns were held responsible; temperature was rarely, if ever, considered. In this study, a dynamical malaria model was driven with available precipitation and temperature data from the period for five stations located across a range of environments in Uganda. In line with the historical data, the simulations produced relatively enhanced transmission in the 1930s, although there is considerable variability between locations. In all locations, malaria transmission was low in the late 1940s and early 1950s, steeply increasing after 1954. Results indicate that past climate variability explains some of the variations in numbers of reported malaria cases. The impact of multiannual variability in temperature, while only on the order of 0.5°C, was sufficient to drive some of the trends observed in the statistics and thus the role of climate was likely underestimated in the contemporary reports. As the elimination campaigns of the 1960s followed this partly climate-driven increase in malaria, this emphasises the need to account for climate when planning and evaluating intervention strategies.

Long-term MODIS observations of cyanobacterial dynamics in Lake Taihu: Responses to nutrient enrichment and meteorological factors

PubMed Central

Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhou, Yongqiang; Liu, Xiaohan; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Gao, Guang

2017-01-01

We developed and validated an empirical model for estimating chlorophyll a concentrations (Chla) in Lake Taihu to generate a long-term Chla and algal bloom area time series from MODIS-Aqua observations for 2003 to 2013. Then, based on the long-term time series data, we quantified the responses of cyanobacterial dynamics to nutrient enrichment and climatic conditions. Chla showed substantial spatial and temporal variability. In addition, the annual mean cyanobacterial surface bloom area exhibited an increasing trend across the entire lake from 2003 to 2013, with the exception of 2006 and 2007. High air temperature and phosphorus levels in the spring can prompt cyanobacterial growth, and low wind speeds and low atmospheric pressure levels favor cyanobacterial surface bloom formation. The sensitivity of cyanobacterial dynamics to climatic conditions was found to vary by region. Our results indicate that temperature is the most important factor controlling Chla inter-annual variability followed by phosphorus and that air pressure is the most important factor controlling cyanobacterial surface bloom formation followed by wind speeds in Lake Taihu. PMID:28074871

Hydrological Excitations of Polar Motion Derived from Different Variables of Fgoals - g2 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winska, M.

2016-12-01

The hydrological contribution to decadal, inter-annual and multi-annual suppress polar motion derived from climate model as well as from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data is discussed here for the period 2002.3-2016.0. The data set used here are Earth Orientation Parameters Combined 04 (EOP C04), Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: Grid-point Version 2 (FGOAL-g2) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) climate models and GRACE CSR RL05 data for polar motion, hydrological and gravimetric excitation, respectively. Several Hydrological Angular Momentum (HAM) functions are calculated here from the selected variables: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, soil moisture, accumulated snow of the FGOALS and GLDAS climate models as well as from the global mass change fields from GRACE data provided by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service (IERS) Global Geophysical Fluids Center (GGFC). The contribution of different HAM excitation functions to achieve the full agreement between geodetic observations and geophysical excitation functions of polar motion is studied here.

Global Surface Temperature Anomalies and Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrafesa, L. J.

2017-12-01

We study Non-Stationary, Non-Linear time series of global surface temperatures from 1850 to 2016, and via an empirical, mathematical methodology, we reveal the buried, internal modes of variability of planetary temperatures over the past 167 years, and find periods of cooling and warming, both in the ocean and the atmosphere over land, with multiple modes of variability; seasonal, annual, inter-annual, multi-year, decadal, multi-decadal, centennial and overall warming trends in the ocean, atmosphere and the combination therein. The oceanic rate of warming is less than two thirds of that of the atmosphere. While our findings on overall trends of fossil fuel burning and planetary temperatures are only visually correlative, by employing a mathematical methodology well known in ergonomics, this study causally links the upward rise in planetary surface temperature from the latter part of the 19th Century and into the 21st Century, to the contemporaneous upward rise in fossil fuel burning and suggests that if present fossil fuel burning is not curtailed there will be continued warming of the planet in the future.

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE PAGES

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; ...

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

Regional meteorological drivers and long term trends of winter-spring nitrate dynamics across watersheds in northeastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crossman, Jill; Eimers, M Catherine; Casson, Nora J.; Burns, Douglas A.; Campbell, John L.; Likens, Gene E; Mitchell, Myron J; Nelson, Sarah J.; Shanley, James B.; Watmough, Shaun A.; Webster, Kara L

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the contribution of winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events to annual and seasonal nitrate (N-NO3) export and identified the regional meteorological drivers of inter-annual variability in ROS N-NO3 export (ROS-N) at 9 headwater streams located across Ontario, Canada and the northeastern United States. Although on average only 3.3 % of annual precipitation fell as ROS during winter over the study period, these events contributed a significant proportion of annual and winter N-NO3 export at the majority of sites (average of 12 and 42 %, respectively); with the exception of the most northern catchment, where total winter precipitation was exceptionally low (average 77 mm). In years with a greater magnitude of ROS events, the timing of the peak N-NO3 export period (during spring melt) was redistributed to earlier in the year. Variability in ROS frequency and magnitude amongst sites was high and a generalised linear model demonstrated that this spatial variability could be explained by interactive effects between regional and site-specific drivers. Snowpack coverage was particularly important for explaining the site-specific ROS response. Specifically, ROS events were less common when higher temperatures eliminated snow cover despite increasing the proportion of winter rainfall, whereas ROS event frequency was greater at sites where sufficient snow cover remained. This research suggests that catchment response to changes in N deposition is sensitive to climate change; a vulnerability which appears to vary in intensity throughout the seasonally snow-covered temperate region. Furthermore, the sensitivity of stream N-NO3 export to ROS events and potential shifts (earlier) in the timing of N-NO3 export relative to other nutrients affect downstream nutrient stoichiometry and the community composition of phytoplankton and other algae.

[Vertical variability of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree ring delta13C and its relationship with tree ring width in northern Daxing' an Mountains of Northeast China].

PubMed

Shang, Zhi-Yuan; Wang, Jian; Zhang, Wen; Li, Yan-Yan; Cui, Ming-Xing; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Zhao, Xing-Yun

2013-01-01

A measurement was made on the vertical direction tree ring stable carbon isotope ratio (delta13C) and tree ring width of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in northern Daxing' an Mountains of Northeast China, with the relationship between the vertical direction variations of the tree ring delta13C and tree ring width analyzed. In the whole ring of xylem, earlywood (EW) and bark endodermis, the delta13C all exhibited an increasing trend from the top to the base at first, with the maximum at the bottom of tree crown, and then, decreased rapidly to the minimum downward. The EW and late-wood (LW) had an increasing ratio of average tree ring width from the base to the top. The average annual sequence of the delta13C in vertical direction had an obvious reverse correspondence with the average annual sequence of tree ring width, and had a trend comparatively in line with the average annual sequence of the tree ring width ratio of EW to LW above tree crown. The variance analysis showed that there existed significant differences in the sequences of tree ring delta13C and ring width in vertical direction, and the magnitude of vertical delta13C variability was basically the same as that of the inter-annual delta13C variability. The year-to-year variation trend of the vertical delta13C sequence was approximately identical. For each sample, the delta13C sequence at the same heights was negatively correlated with the ring width sequence, but the statistical significance differed with tree height.

Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

PubMed

Thai, Khoa T D; Cazelles, Bernard; Nguyen, Nam Van; Vo, Long Thi; Boni, Maciej F; Farrar, Jeremy; Simmons, Cameron P; van Doorn, H Rogier; de Vries, Peter J

2010-07-13

Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found. A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

Spring green-up date derived from GIMMS3g and SPOT-VGT NDVI of winter wheat cropland in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhengjia; Wu, Chaoyang; Liu, Yansui; Wang, Xiaoyue; Fang, Bin; Yuan, Wenping; Ge, Quansheng

2017-08-01

Satellite temporal resolution affects the fitting accuracy of vegetation growth curves. However, there are few studies that evaluate the impact of different satellite data (including temporal resolution and time series change) on spring green-up date (GUD) extraction. In this study, four GUD algorithms and two different temporal resolution satellite data (GIMMS3g during 1982-2013 and SPOT-VGT during 1999-2013) were used to investigate winter wheat GUD in the North China Plain. Four GUD algorithms included logistic-NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), logistic-cumNDVI (cumulative NDVI), polynomial-NDVI and polynomial-cumNDVI algorithms. All algorithms and data were first regrouped into eight controlled cases. At site scale, we evaluated the performance of each case using correlation coefficient (r), bias and root mean square error (RMSE). We further compared spatial patterns and inter-annual trends of GUD inferred from different algorithms, and then analyzed the difference between GIMMS3g-based GUD and SPOT-VGT-based GUD. Our results showed that all satellite-based GUD were correlated with observations with r ranging from 0.32 to 0.57 (p < 0.01). SPOT-VGT-based GUD generally had better correlations with observed GUD than those of GIMMS3g. Spatially, SPOT-VGT-based GUD performed more reasonable spatial distributions. Inter-annual regional averaged satellite-based GUD presented overall advanced trends during 1982-2013 (0.3-2.0 days/decade) while delayed trends were observed during 1999-2013 (1.7-7.4 days/decade for GIMMS3g and 3.8-7.4 days/decade for SPOT-VGT). However, their significance levels were highly dependent on the data and algorithms used. Our findings suggest cautions on previous results of inter-annual variability of phenology from a single data/method.

Insights Into Intermediate Ocean Barium Cycling From Deep-Sea Bamboo Coral Records on the California Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaVigne, M.; Serrato Marks, G.; Freiberger, M. M.; Miller, H. R.; Hill, T. M.; McNichol, A. P.; Lardie Gaylord, M.

2016-02-01

Dissolved barium (BaSW) has been linked to several biogeochemical processes such as the cycling and export of nutrients, organic carbon (Corg), and barite in surface and intermediate oceans. The dynamic nature of barium cycling in the water column has been demonstrated on short timescales (days-weeks) while sedimentary records have documented geologic-scale changes in barite preservation driven by export production. Our understanding of how inter-annual-decadal scale climate variability impacts these biogeochemical processes currently lacks robust instrumental and paleoceanographic records. Recent work has calibrated and demonstrated the reproducibility of a new BaSW proxy in California Current System (CCS) bamboo corals (Ba/Ca) using a coral depth transect spanning the CCS oxygen minimum zone (792-2055m water depth). New `reconnaissance' radiocarbon data identifying the bomb 14C spike in coral proteinaceous nodes and sclerochronological analyses of calcitic internodes are used to assign chronologies to the CCS coral records. Century-long coral records from 900-1500m record 4-7 year long increases in Ba/Ca ( 10-70 nmol/kg BaSW) at depths where rapid barite cycling occurs on day-weekly timescales. The BaSW peaks punctuate the coral records at different time periods and depths and do not coincide with inter-annual/decadal climate transitions (e.g. ENSO/PDO). Stable surface productivity and coral δ15N records indicate that Corg export from CCS surface waters has been relatively constant over the past century. Thus, the inter-annual scale BaSW peaks recorded by the 900-1500m corals more likely reflect periods of decreased barite formation (and/or increased dissolution) via reduced bacterial Corg respiration or barite saturation state. Paleoceanographic BaSW records and continued research on barium cycling in the modern ocean have the potential to elucidate the mechanisms linking intermediate water carbon and barium cycling, climate, and ocean oxygenation in the past.

Cardiac valve calcifications on low-dose unenhanced ungated chest computed tomography: inter-observer and inter-examination reliability, agreement and variability.

PubMed

van Hamersvelt, Robbert W; Willemink, Martin J; Takx, Richard A P; Eikendal, Anouk L M; Budde, Ricardo P J; Leiner, Tim; Mol, Christian P; Isgum, Ivana; de Jong, Pim A

2014-07-01

To determine inter-observer and inter-examination variability for aortic valve calcification (AVC) and mitral valve and annulus calcification (MC) in low-dose unenhanced ungated lung cancer screening chest computed tomography (CT). We included 578 lung cancer screening trial participants who were examined by CT twice within 3 months to follow indeterminate pulmonary nodules. On these CTs, AVC and MC were measured in cubic millimetres. One hundred CTs were examined by five observers to determine the inter-observer variability. Reliability was assessed by kappa statistics (κ) and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs). Variability was expressed as the mean difference ± standard deviation (SD). Inter-examination reliability was excellent for AVC (κ = 0.94, ICC = 0.96) and MC (κ = 0.95, ICC = 0.90). Inter-examination variability was 12.7 ± 118.2 mm(3) for AVC and 31.5 ± 219.2 mm(3) for MC. Inter-observer reliability ranged from κ = 0.68 to κ = 0.92 for AVC and from κ = 0.20 to κ = 0.66 for MC. Inter-observer ICC was 0.94 for AVC and ranged from 0.56 to 0.97 for MC. Inter-observer variability ranged from -30.5 ± 252.0 mm(3) to 84.0 ± 240.5 mm(3) for AVC and from -95.2 ± 210.0 mm(3) to 303.7 ± 501.6 mm(3) for MC. AVC can be quantified with excellent reliability on ungated unenhanced low-dose chest CT, but manual detection of MC can be subject to substantial inter-observer variability. Lung cancer screening CT may be used for detection and quantification of cardiac valve calcifications. • Low-dose unenhanced ungated chest computed tomography can detect cardiac valve calcifications. • However, calcified cardiac valves are not reported by most radiologists. • Inter-observer and inter-examination variability of aortic valve calcifications is sufficient for longitudinal studies. • Volumetric measurement variability of mitral valve and annulus calcifications is substantial.

Characterizing Individual Differences in Functional Connectivity Using Dual-Regression and Seed-Based Approaches

PubMed Central

Smith, David V.; Utevsky, Amanda V.; Bland, Amy R.; Clement, Nathan; Clithero, John A.; Harsch, Anne E. W.; Carter, R. McKell; Huettel, Scott A.

2014-01-01

A central challenge for neuroscience lies in relating inter-individual variability to the functional properties of specific brain regions. Yet, considerable variability exists in the connectivity patterns between different brain areas, potentially producing reliable group differences. Using sex differences as a motivating example, we examined two separate resting-state datasets comprising a total of 188 human participants. Both datasets were decomposed into resting-state networks (RSNs) using a probabilistic spatial independent components analysis (ICA). We estimated voxelwise functional connectivity with these networks using a dual-regression analysis, which characterizes the participant-level spatiotemporal dynamics of each network while controlling for (via multiple regression) the influence of other networks and sources of variability. We found that males and females exhibit distinct patterns of connectivity with multiple RSNs, including both visual and auditory networks and the right frontal-parietal network. These results replicated across both datasets and were not explained by differences in head motion, data quality, brain volume, cortisol levels, or testosterone levels. Importantly, we also demonstrate that dual-regression functional connectivity is better at detecting inter-individual variability than traditional seed-based functional connectivity approaches. Our findings characterize robust—yet frequently ignored—neural differences between males and females, pointing to the necessity of controlling for sex in neuroscience studies of individual differences. Moreover, our results highlight the importance of employing network-based models to study variability in functional connectivity. PMID:24662574

Effects of Shoreline Dynamics on Saltmarsh Vegetation

PubMed Central

Sharma, Shailesh; Goff, Joshua; Moody, Ryan M.; McDonald, Ashley; Byron, Dorothy; Heck, Kenneth L.; Powers, Sean P.; Ferraro, Carl; Cebrian, Just

2016-01-01

We evaluated the impact of shoreline dynamics on fringing vegetation density at mid- and low-marsh elevations at a high-energy site in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Particularly, we selected eight unprotected shoreline stretches (75 m each) at a historically eroding site and measured their inter-annual lateral movement rate using the DSAS method for three consecutive years. We observed high inter-annual variability of shoreline movement within the selected stretches. Specifically, shorelines retrograded (eroded) in year 1 and year 3, whereas, in year 2, shorelines advanced seaward. Despite shoreline advancement in year 2, an overall net erosion was recorded during the survey period. Additionally, vegetation density generally declined at both elevations during the survey period; however, probably due to their immediate proximity with lateral erosion agents (e.g., waves, currents), marsh grasses at low-elevation exhibited abrupt reduction in density, more so than grasses at mid elevation. Finally, contrary to our hypothesis, despite shoreline advancement, vegetation density did not increase correspondingly in year 2 probably due to a lag in response from biota. More studies in other coastal systems may advance our knowledge of marsh edge systems; however, we consider our results could be beneficial to resource managers in preparing protection plans for coastal wetlands against chronic stressors such as lateral erosion. PMID:27442515

Diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual variations in the Schumann resonance parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Colin; Melnikov, Alexander

2004-09-01

The Schumann resonances (SR) represent an electromagnetic phenomenon in the Earth's atmosphere related to global lightning activity. The spectral characteristics of the SR modes are defined by their resonant mode amplitude, center frequency and half-width (Q-factor). Long-term (4 years) diurnal and seasonal variations of these parameters are presented based on measurements at a field site in the Negev desert, Israel. Variations of the different modes (8, 14 and 20Hz) and the different electromagnetic components (Hns, Hew and Ez) are presented. The power variations of the various modes and components show three dominant maxima in the diurnal cycle related to lightning activity in south-east Asia (0800UT), Africa (1400UT) and South America (2000UT). The largest global lightning activity occurs during the northern hemisphere summer (JJA) with the southern hemisphere summer (DJF) having the least lightning around the globe. The frequency and half-width (Q-factor) variations of the different modes and SR components are fairly complicated in structure, and will need additional theoretical work to explain their variations. However, the frequency variations are in excellent agreement with previous studies, implying that the frequency variations are robust features of the SR. The inter-annual variability of global lightning activity is shown to vary differently for each of the three major source regions of global lightning.

Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008.

PubMed

Zhang, Tianyi; Huang, Yao

2012-06-01

Negative climate impacts on crop yield increase pressures on food security in China. In this study, climatic impacts on cereal yields (rice, wheat and maize) were investigated by analyzing climate-yield relationships from 1980 to 2008. Results indicated that warming was significant, but trends in precipitation and solar radiation were not statistically significant in most of China. In general, maize is particularly sensitive to warming. However, increase in temperature was correlated with both lower and higher yield of rice and wheat, which is inconsistent with the current view that warming results in decline in yields. Of the three cereal crops, further analysis suggested that reduction in yields with higher temperature is accompanied by lower precipitation, which mainly occurred in northern parts of China, suggesting droughts reduced yield due to lack of water resources. Similarly, a positive correlation between temperature and yield can be alternatively explained by the effect of solar radiation, mainly in the southern part of China where water resources are abundant. Overall, our study suggests that it is inter-annual variations in precipitation and solar radiation that have driven change in cereal yields in China over the last three decades. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

Effects of Shoreline Dynamics on Saltmarsh Vegetation.

PubMed

Sharma, Shailesh; Goff, Joshua; Moody, Ryan M; McDonald, Ashley; Byron, Dorothy; Heck, Kenneth L; Powers, Sean P; Ferraro, Carl; Cebrian, Just

2016-01-01

We evaluated the impact of shoreline dynamics on fringing vegetation density at mid- and low-marsh elevations at a high-energy site in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Particularly, we selected eight unprotected shoreline stretches (75 m each) at a historically eroding site and measured their inter-annual lateral movement rate using the DSAS method for three consecutive years. We observed high inter-annual variability of shoreline movement within the selected stretches. Specifically, shorelines retrograded (eroded) in year 1 and year 3, whereas, in year 2, shorelines advanced seaward. Despite shoreline advancement in year 2, an overall net erosion was recorded during the survey period. Additionally, vegetation density generally declined at both elevations during the survey period; however, probably due to their immediate proximity with lateral erosion agents (e.g., waves, currents), marsh grasses at low-elevation exhibited abrupt reduction in density, more so than grasses at mid elevation. Finally, contrary to our hypothesis, despite shoreline advancement, vegetation density did not increase correspondingly in year 2 probably due to a lag in response from biota. More studies in other coastal systems may advance our knowledge of marsh edge systems; however, we consider our results could be beneficial to resource managers in preparing protection plans for coastal wetlands against chronic stressors such as lateral erosion.

Terrestrial water cycle induced meridional overturning circulation variability over the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, C. W.; Velicogna, I.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial water cycle has a significant role in the long-term changes of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). With the fresh water input over the ocean from the river runoff or ice melting at the higher latitude, AMOC transport has been predicted to slow down at the end of the century. We compare ocean bottom pressure measured from the GRACE satellite data with the conventional density derived transport observations from the RAPID MOC/MOCHA array to study the impact of the terrestrial water cycle on the seasonal and inter annual AMOC variability detected by the RAPID MOC/MOCHA array observations. We propose that the observed short-term variability is due to coupling of wind driven and terrestrial water cycle changes. We show that the proposed mechanism explains a significant portion of the transport variance and we present new possible mechanism that can explain the residual transport signal in AMOC.

Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Wong, Takmeng; Allan, Richard; Slingo, Anthony; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Soden, Brian J.; Gordon, C. T.; Miller, Alvin J.; Yang, Shi-Keng; Randall, David R.;

Effects of Severe Floods and Droughts on Wildlife of the Pantanal Wetland (Brazil)—A Review

PubMed Central

Alho, Cleber J. R.; Silva, João S. V.

2012-01-01

Simple Summary The Pantanal is a wetland in the center of South America, (140,000 km² in Brazil), in the Upper Paraguay River Basin. Because of its diverse and abundant wildlife, it is recognized as one of the most important freshwater ecosystems in the world. Many endangered species occur there, including jaguar; waterfowl are exceptionally abundant. Relief varies between the low, and flat floodplain, and the surrounding non-flooded plateau areas. Rainfall shows inter-annual variability, influencing the flooding patterns. Historical climate instability of severe multi-annual flood and dry events has affected animals’ habitats as well as their community structure, population size and behavioral ecology. Abstract Flooding throughout the Pantanal is seasonal. The complex vegetative cover and high seasonal productivity support a diverse and abundant fauna. A gradient in flood level supports a range of major habitats in a complex mosaic with annual seasonality. The rivers and streams are lined with gallery forests, and other arboreal habitats exist in the more elevated areas. The remainder is either grasslands or seasonally flooded grasslands. The regional flora and fauna are adapted to annual water fluctuation. However, an inter-annual series of higher or lower rainfalls has caused either severe floods or drastic dry seasons. Large scale climate phenomena such as greenhouse gases, El Niño and La Niña influence the seasonality of floods and droughts in the Pantanal. Knowledge of severe floods and droughts, which characterize natural disasters, is fundamental for wildlife management and nature conservation of the Pantanal. Plants and wild animals, for example, are affected by tree mortality in riparian forest after extreme flooding, with consequent habitat modification for wild animals. In addition, human activities are also affected since cattle ranching and ecotourism are economically important in the region, and when seasons with unusual floods or droughts occur, areas with human settlements are impacted. PMID:26487165

Insight into runoff characteristics using hydrological modeling in the data-scarce southern Tibetan Plateau: Past, present, and future

PubMed Central

Cai, Mingyong; Yang, Shengtian; Zhao, Changsen; Zhou, Qiuwen; Hou, Lipeng

2017-01-01

Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial data based Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (MS-DTVGM) is applied to the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, an important international river basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau with limited meteorological data. This model is driven purely by spatial data from multiple sources and is independent of traditional meteorological data. Based on the methods presented in this study, daily snow cover and potential evapotranspiration data in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in 2050 are obtained. Future (2050) climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) are used to study the hydrological response to climate change. The result shows that river runoff will increase due to precipitation and air temperature changes by 2050. Few differences are found between daily runoff simulations from different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050. Historical station observations (1960–2000) at Nuxia and model simulations for two periods (2006–2009 and 2050) are combined to study inter-annual and intra-annual runoff distribution and variability. The inter-annual runoff variation is stable and the coefficient of variation (CV) varies from 0.21 to 0.27. In contrast, the intra-annual runoff varies significantly with runoff in summer and autumn accounting for more than 80% of the total amount. Compared to the historical period (1960–2000), the present period (2006–2009) has a slightly uneven intra-annual runoff temporal distribution, and becomes more balanced in the future (2050). PMID:28486483

Insight into runoff characteristics using hydrological modeling in the data-scarce southern Tibetan Plateau: Past, present, and future.

PubMed

Cai, Mingyong; Yang, Shengtian; Zhao, Changsen; Zhou, Qiuwen; Hou, Lipeng

2017-01-01

Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial data based Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (MS-DTVGM) is applied to the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, an important international river basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau with limited meteorological data. This model is driven purely by spatial data from multiple sources and is independent of traditional meteorological data. Based on the methods presented in this study, daily snow cover and potential evapotranspiration data in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in 2050 are obtained. Future (2050) climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) are used to study the hydrological response to climate change. The result shows that river runoff will increase due to precipitation and air temperature changes by 2050. Few differences are found between daily runoff simulations from different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050. Historical station observations (1960-2000) at Nuxia and model simulations for two periods (2006-2009 and 2050) are combined to study inter-annual and intra-annual runoff distribution and variability. The inter-annual runoff variation is stable and the coefficient of variation (CV) varies from 0.21 to 0.27. In contrast, the intra-annual runoff varies significantly with runoff in summer and autumn accounting for more than 80% of the total amount. Compared to the historical period (1960-2000), the present period (2006-2009) has a slightly uneven intra-annual runoff temporal distribution, and becomes more balanced in the future (2050).

Sediment Transport Variability in Global Rivers: Implications for the Interpretation of Paleoclimate Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syvitski, J. P.; Hutton, E. W.

2001-12-01

A new numerical approach (HydroTrend, v.2) allows the daily flux of sediment to be estimated for any river, whether gauged or not. The model can be driven by actual climate measurements (precipitation, temperature) or with statistical estimates of climate (modeled climate, remotely-sensed climate). In both cases, the character (e.g. soil depth, relief, vegetation index) of the drainage terrain is needed to complete the model domain. The HydroTrend approach allows us to examine the effects of climate on the supply of sediment to continental margins, and the nature of supply variability. A new relationship is defined as: $Qs = f (Psi) Qs-bar (Q/Q-bar)c+-σ where Qs-bar is the long-term sediment load, Q-bar is the long-term discharge, c and sigma are mean and standard deviation of the inter-annual variability of the rating coefficient, and Psi captures the measurement errors associated with Q and Qs, and the annual transients, affecting the supply of sediment including sediment and water source, and river (flood wave) dynamics. F = F(Psi, s). Smaller-discharge rivers have larger values of s, and s asymptotes to a small but consistent value for larger-discharge rivers. The coefficient c is directly proportional to the long-term suspended load (Qs-bar) and basin relief (R), and inversely proportional to mean annual temperature (T). sigma is directly proportional to the mean annual discharge. The long-term sediment load is given by: Qs-bar = a R1.5 A0.5 TT $ where a is a global constant, A is basin area; and TT is a function of mean annual temperature. This new approach provides estimates of sediment flux at the dynamic (daily) level and provides us a means to experiment on the sensitivity of marine sedimentary deposits in recording a paleoclimate signal. In addition the method provides us with spatial estimates for the flux of sediment to the coastal zone at the global scale.

Inter-decadal variability of phytoplankton biomass along the coastal West Antarctic Peninsula.

PubMed

Kim, Hyewon; Ducklow, Hugh W; Abele, Doris; Ruiz Barlett, Eduardo M; Buma, Anita G J; Meredith, Michael P; Rozema, Patrick D; Schofield, Oscar M; Venables, Hugh J; Schloss, Irene R

2018-06-28

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a climatically sensitive region where periods of strong warming have caused significant changes in the marine ecosystem and food-web processes. Tight coupling between phytoplankton and higher trophic levels implies that the coastal WAP is a bottom-up controlled system, where changes in phytoplankton dynamics may largely impact other food-web components. Here, we analysed the inter-decadal time series of year-round chlorophyll- a (Chl) collected from three stations along the coastal WAP: Carlini Station at Potter Cove (PC) on King George Island, Palmer Station on Anvers Island and Rothera Station on Adelaide Island. There were trends towards increased phytoplankton biomass at Carlini Station (PC) and Palmer Station, while phytoplankton biomass declined significantly at Rothera Station over the studied period. The impacts of two relevant climate modes to the WAP, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, on winter and spring phytoplankton biomass appear to be different among the three sampling stations, suggesting an important role of local-scale forcing than large-scale forcing on phytoplankton dynamics at each station. The inter-annual variability of seasonal bloom progression derived from considering all three stations together captured ecologically meaningful, seasonally co-occurring bloom patterns which were primarily constrained by water-column stability strength. Our findings highlight a coupled link between phytoplankton and physical and climate dynamics along the coastal WAP, which may improve our understanding of overall WAP food-web responses to climate change and variability.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Munhoven, Guy; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Betts, Richard; Hickler, Thomas; Steinkamp, Jörg; Ostberg, Sebastian; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Ciais, Philippe; Chang, Jinfeng; Rafique, Rashid; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang

2017-08-01

Simulating vegetation photosynthetic productivity (or gross primary production, GPP) is a critical feature of the biome models used for impact assessments of climate change. We conducted a benchmarking of global GPP simulated by eight biome models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a) with four meteorological forcing datasets (30 simulations), using independent GPP estimates and recent satellite data of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence as a proxy of GPP. The simulated global terrestrial GPP ranged from 98 to 141 Pg C yr-1 (1981-2000 mean); considerable inter-model and inter-data differences were found. Major features of spatial distribution and seasonal change of GPP were captured by each model, showing good agreement with the benchmarking data. All simulations showed incremental trends of annual GPP, seasonal-cycle amplitude, radiation-use efficiency, and water-use efficiency, mainly caused by the CO2 fertilization effect. The incremental slopes were higher than those obtained by remote sensing studies, but comparable with those by recent atmospheric observation. Apparent differences were found in the relationship between GPP and incoming solar radiation, for which forcing data differed considerably. The simulated GPP trends co-varied with a vegetation structural parameter, leaf area index, at model-dependent strengths, implying the importance of constraining canopy properties. In terms of extreme events, GPP anomalies associated with a historical El Niño event and large volcanic eruption were not consistently simulated in the model experiments due to deficiencies in both forcing data and parameterized environmental responsiveness. Although the benchmarking demonstrated the overall advancement of contemporary biome models, further refinements are required, for example, for solar radiation data and vegetation canopy schemes.

Real-time forecasts of dengue epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Shaman, J. L.

2015-12-01

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease prevalent in the tropics and subtropics, with an estimated 2.5 billion people at risk of transmission. In many areas with endemic dengue, disease transmission is seasonal but prone to high inter-annual variability with occasional severe epidemics. Predicting and preparing for periods of higher than average transmission is a significant public health challenge. Here we present a model of dengue transmission and a framework for optimizing model simulations with real-time observational data of dengue cases and environmental variables in order to generate ensemble-based forecasts of the timing and severity of disease outbreaks. The model-inference system is validated using synthetic data and dengue outbreak records. Retrospective forecasts are generated for a number of locations and the accuracy of these forecasts is quantified.

Characterisation of a reference site for quantifying uncertainties related to soil sampling.

PubMed

Barbizzi, Sabrina; de Zorzi, Paolo; Belli, Maria; Pati, Alessandra; Sansone, Umberto; Stellato, Luisa; Barbina, Maria; Deluisa, Andrea; Menegon, Sandro; Coletti, Valter

2004-01-01

The paper reports a methodology adopted to face problems related to quality assurance in soil sampling. The SOILSAMP project, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency of Italy (APAT), is aimed at (i) establishing protocols for soil sampling in different environments; (ii) assessing uncertainties associated with different soil sampling methods in order to select the "fit-for-purpose" method; (iii) qualifying, in term of trace elements spatial variability, a reference site for national and international inter-comparison exercises. Preliminary results and considerations are illustrated.

Interpretation of the impact of different managements and the rainfall variability on the soil erosion in a Mediterranean olive orchard microcatchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taguas, E. V.; Burguet, M.; Pérez, R.; Ayuso, J. L.; Gómez, J. A.

2012-04-01

The microcatchment is a spatial scale which allows to evaluate and to quantify the erosive processes under conditions close to those perceived by farmers. In this work, soil erosion and runoff over six hydrological years (2005 and 2011) were monitored in an olive orchard microcatchment of 6.4 ha, where different management types were applied. The aim was to evaluate the impact of the management and the rainfall regime variability. Non-tillage was applied during the years 2005-2007, tillage operations were carried in April in the period 2007-2010 while in the year 2010-2011, the tillage was applied in January and mulches (olives leaves and branches) were established for reducing the soil losses, mainly generated from rills. At the annual scale, the variation ranges of the cumulative rainfall depth and of the erosivity were between 600 and 1000 mm and between 600 and 1500 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, respectively. Although there are some gaps in the data series, the annual runoff coefficients calculated were smaller than 5% and the total sediment load range was between less than 1 t ha-1 year-1and more than 20 t ha-1 year-1. During these years olive yield also showed a high degree of variability, between 5000 kg ha-1 year-1and 10000 kg ha-1 year-1, typical of the alternate bearing of this crop, without correlation with annual rainfall. The annual rainfall depth explained significantly the sediment load and the runoff in spite of the different managements applied. At the event scale, rainfall depth was correlated with runoff, however, sediment load was very sensible to management. The high variability of the hydrological regime (inter and intra-annual) and the importance of the precedent hydrological years determine complex interpretations of the impact of the management on the soil losses and the olive yield by the farmers, so the continuity of the data analysis is essential for supporting the suitable taking decisions about the overall farm management.

Impact of Satellite Remote Sensing Data on Simulations of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We estimated surface salinity flux and solar penetration from satellite data, and performed model simulations to examine the impact of including the satellite estimates on temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen distributions on the Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) near the annual hypoxic zone. Rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) were used for the salinity flux, and the diffuse attenuation coefficient (Kd) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used for solar penetration. Improvements in the model results in comparison with in situ observations occurred when the two types of satellite data were included. Without inclusion of the satellite-derived surface salinity flux, realistic monthly variability in the model salinity fields was observed, but important inter-annual variability wasmissed. Without inclusion of the satellite-derived light attenuation, model bottom water temperatures were too high nearshore due to excessive penetration of solar irradiance. In general, these salinity and temperature errors led to model stratification that was too weak, and the model failed to capture observed spatial and temporal variability in water-column vertical stratification. Inclusion of the satellite data improved temperature and salinity predictions and the vertical stratification was strengthened, which improved prediction of bottom-water dissolved oxygen. The model-predicted area of bottom-water hypoxia on the

Spatial variations in nitrogen dioxide concentrations in an urban area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholas Hewitt, C.

Fortnightly average NO 2 concentrations have been measured at 49 sites in the small city of Lancaster, U.K., over a continuous 1-year period using passive diffusion tubes. At sampling sites on a congested main road in the city centre considerable spatial and temporal variability in concentrations was found. An annual mean concentration of 63 μgm -3 was found witha range of 12-222 μgm -3. The mean concentration in an adjacent main road was 58 μgm -3 with a range of 5-107 μgm -3. Rather less variability was seen in a suburban main road and in a suburban residential street, which had annual mean concentrations of 38 and 30 μm -3, respectively. Concentrations in a city centre pedestrian precinct decreased with distance from the main road, having an annual mean value of 30μm -3. The data suggest that the precise location of a sampling device may be crucial in determining whether or not a given NO 2, concentration or standard is exceeded.

What drives inter-annual variations in C flux and balance in a tropical rainforest of French Guiana?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilos, Maricar; Herault, Bruno; Burban, Benoit; Wagner, Fabien; Bonal, Damien

2017-04-01

Amazon rainforests, a major contributor to the global carbon sink, is not on steady state and information about the long-term impact of climate change on carbon fluxes between this ecosystem and the atmosphere and the resulting balance is lacking. A thorough understanding of the forest responses to climate is indeed important to improve ecosystem process models and to reduce uncertainties in the contemporary carbon balance calculations for tropical forests. To address these issues, we examined the interannual variations in gross primary photosynthesis (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in a tropical rainforest in French Guiana and identified key climatic drivers influencing such changes across a 12-year long period (2004 - 2015). The study period was characterized by strong differences in climate conditions, particularly in the intensity of the long dry and the long wet seasons. Fluctuations in annual average GPP vary from 9.27 ± 1.68 g C m?2 d?1 to 11.13 ± 2.21 g C m?2 d?1. RE is more varied than GPP having a difference of 2.53 C m?2 d?1 between the minimum (8.28 ± 0.85 g C m?2 d?1) and maximum (10.80 ± 1.67 g C m?2 d?1). GPP was always higher than RE annually and the forest remained a carbon sink in an annual basis although NEE has huge interannual variability, from -0.18 ± 1.64 g C m?2 d?1 to -1.62 ± 1.65 g C m?2 d?1. Annually, the combination of global radiation (Rg), relative extractable water (REW) and soil temperature (Ts) explained 51% of the variations of GPP, 30% for RE, and 39% for NEE, but global radiation was always the best predictor variable. Seasonally, Rg was the major controlling factor for GPP (r2 = 0.58; P <0.0001), RE (r2 = 0.08; P<0.0001) and NEE (r2 = 0.48; P<0.0001) during the wet season. During the dry season, variations in C fluxes and balance were poorly explained by climate factors. Yet, relative extractable water was the key driver of variations in RE (r2 = 0.16; P < 0.0001) and NEE (r2 = 0.10; P < 0.0001). Biotic factors such as plant area index, tree growth or litterfall did not contribute much to explain these variations. This study highlights the importance of taking into consideration the main drivers of C fluxes and balance for each seasonal type when integrating them in land atmosphere models. Detailed mechanisms on the impact of drought on photosynthesis and respiration must also be inferred in dynamic vegetation models.

Variability in the Carbon Storage of Seagrass Habitats and Its Implications for Global Estimates of Blue Carbon Ecosystem Service

PubMed Central

Lavery, Paul S.; Mateo, Miguel-Ángel; Serrano, Oscar; Rozaimi, Mohammad

2013-01-01

The recent focus on carbon trading has intensified interest in ‘Blue Carbon’–carbon sequestered by coastal vegetated ecosystems, particularly seagrasses. Most information on seagrass carbon storage is derived from studies of a single species, Posidonia oceanica, from the Mediterranean Sea. We surveyed 17 Australian seagrass habitats to assess the variability in their sedimentary organic carbon (Corg) stocks. The habitats encompassed 10 species, in mono-specific or mixed meadows, depositional to exposed habitats and temperate to tropical habitats. There was an 18-fold difference in the Corg stock (1.09–20.14 mg Corg cm−3 for a temperate Posidonia sinuosa and a temperate, estuarine P. australis meadow, respectively). Integrated over the top 25 cm of sediment, this equated to an areal stock of 262–4833 g Corg m−2. For some species, there was an effect of water depth on the Corg stocks, with greater stocks in deeper sites; no differences were found among sub-tidal and inter-tidal habitats. The estimated carbon storage in Australian seagrass ecosystems, taking into account inter-habitat variability, was 155 Mt. At a 2014–15 fixed carbon price of A$25.40 t−1 and an estimated market price of $35 t−1 in 2020, the Corg stock in the top 25 cm of seagrass habitats has a potential value of $AUD 3.9–5.4 bill. The estimates of annual Corg accumulation by Australian seagrasses ranged from 0.093 to 6.15 Mt, with a most probable estimate of 0.93 Mt y−1 (10.1 t. km−2 y−1). These estimates, while large, were one-third of those that would be calculated if inter-habitat variability in carbon stocks were not taken into account. We conclude that there is an urgent need for more information on the variability in seagrass carbon stock and accumulation rates, and the factors driving this variability, in order to improve global estimates of seagrass Blue Carbon storage. PMID:24040052

Variability in the carbon storage of seagrass habitats and its implications for global estimates of blue carbon ecosystem service.

PubMed

Lavery, Paul S; Mateo, Miguel-Ángel; Serrano, Oscar; Rozaimi, Mohammad

2013-01-01

The recent focus on carbon trading has intensified interest in 'Blue Carbon'-carbon sequestered by coastal vegetated ecosystems, particularly seagrasses. Most information on seagrass carbon storage is derived from studies of a single species, Posidonia oceanica, from the Mediterranean Sea. We surveyed 17 Australian seagrass habitats to assess the variability in their sedimentary organic carbon (C org) stocks. The habitats encompassed 10 species, in mono-specific or mixed meadows, depositional to exposed habitats and temperate to tropical habitats. There was an 18-fold difference in the Corg stock (1.09-20.14 mg C org cm(-3) for a temperate Posidonia sinuosa and a temperate, estuarine P. australis meadow, respectively). Integrated over the top 25 cm of sediment, this equated to an areal stock of 262-4833 g C org m(-2). For some species, there was an effect of water depth on the C org stocks, with greater stocks in deeper sites; no differences were found among sub-tidal and inter-tidal habitats. The estimated carbon storage in Australian seagrass ecosystems, taking into account inter-habitat variability, was 155 Mt. At a 2014-15 fixed carbon price of A$25.40 t(-1) and an estimated market price of $35 t(-1) in 2020, the C org stock in the top 25 cm of seagrass habitats has a potential value of $AUD 3.9-5.4 bill. The estimates of annual C org accumulation by Australian seagrasses ranged from 0.093 to 6.15 Mt, with a most probable estimate of 0.93 Mt y(-1) (10.1 t. km(-2) y(-1)). These estimates, while large, were one-third of those that would be calculated if inter-habitat variability in carbon stocks were not taken into account. We conclude that there is an urgent need for more information on the variability in seagrass carbon stock and accumulation rates, and the factors driving this variability, in order to improve global estimates of seagrass Blue Carbon storage.

Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation cover (C-factor) maps would enable the assessment of seasonal dynamics of erosion processes in Switzerland.

Inter-Seasonal and Annual Co-Variation of Smallholder Production Portfolios, Volumes and Incomes with Rainfall and Flood Levels in the Amazon Estuary: Implications for Building Livelihood Resilience to Increasing Variability of Hydro-Climatic Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, N. D.; Fernandes, K.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Brondizio, E. S.; Almeida, O.; Rivero, S.; Rabelo, F. R.; Dou, Y.; Deadman, P.

2014-12-01

In this paper we investigate inter-seasonal and annual co-variations of rainfall and flood levels with Caboclo production portfolios, and proportions of it they sell and consume, in the Amazon Estuary from August 2012 to August 2014. Caboclos of the estuary maintain a diverse and flexible land-use portfolio, with a shift in dominant use from agriculture to agroforestry and forestry since WWII (Vogt et al., 2014). The current landscape is configured for acai, shrimp and fish production. In the last decade the frequency of wet seasons with anomalous flood levels and duration has increased primarily from changes in rainfall and discharge from upstream basins. Local rainfall, though with less influence on extreme estuarine flood levels, is reported to be more sporadic and intense in wet season and variable in both wet and dry seasons, for yet unknown reasons. The current production portfolio and its flexibility are felt to build resilience to these increases in hydro-climatic variability and extreme events. What is less understood, for time and costliness of daily measures at household levels, is how variations in flood and rainfall levels affect shifts in the current production portfolio of estuarine Caboclos, and the proportions of it they sell and consume. This is needed to identify what local hydro-climatic thresholds are extreme for current livelihoods, that is, that most adversely affect food security and income levels. It is also needed identify the large-scale forcings driving those extreme conditions to build forecasts for when they will occur. Here we present results of production, rainfall and flood data collected daily in households from both the North and South Channel of the Amazon estuary over last two years to identify how they co-vary, and robustness of current production portfolio under different hydro-climatic conditions.

Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on the acoustic occurrence and behaviour of Antarctic blue whales

PubMed Central

Shabangu, Fannie W.; Yemane, Dawit; Stafford, Kathleen M.; Ensor, Paul; Findlay, Ken P.

2017-01-01

Harvested to perilously low numbers by commercial whaling during the past century, the large scale response of Antarctic blue whales Balaenoptera musculus intermedia to environmental variability is poorly understood. This study uses acoustic data collected from 586 sonobuoys deployed in the austral summers of 1997 through 2009, south of 38°S, coupled with visual observations of blue whales during the IWC SOWER line-transect surveys. The characteristic Z-call and D-call of Antarctic blue whales were detected using an automated detection template and visual verification method. Using a random forest model, we showed the environmental preferences pattern, spatial occurrence and acoustic behaviour of Antarctic blue whales. Distance to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SBACC), latitude and distance from the nearest Antarctic shores were the main geographic predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Satellite-derived sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and productivity (chlorophyll-a) were the most important environmental predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Call rates of D-calls were strongly predicted by the location of the SBACC, latitude and visually detected number of whales in an area while call rates of Z-call were predicted by the SBACC, latitude and longitude. Satellite-derived sea surface height, wind stress, wind direction, water depth, sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and wind speed were important environmental predictors of blue whale call rates in the Southern Ocean. Blue whale call occurrence and call rates varied significantly in response to inter-annual and long term variability of those environmental predictors. Our results identify the response of Antarctic blue whales to inter-annual variability in environmental conditions and highlighted potential suitable habitats for this population. Such emerging knowledge about the acoustic behaviour, environmental and habitat preferences of Antarctic blue whales is important in improving the management and conservation of this highly depleted species. PMID:28222124

Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on the acoustic occurrence and behaviour of Antarctic blue whales.

PubMed

Shabangu, Fannie W; Yemane, Dawit; Stafford, Kathleen M; Ensor, Paul; Findlay, Ken P

2017-01-01

Harvested to perilously low numbers by commercial whaling during the past century, the large scale response of Antarctic blue whales Balaenoptera musculus intermedia to environmental variability is poorly understood. This study uses acoustic data collected from 586 sonobuoys deployed in the austral summers of 1997 through 2009, south of 38°S, coupled with visual observations of blue whales during the IWC SOWER line-transect surveys. The characteristic Z-call and D-call of Antarctic blue whales were detected using an automated detection template and visual verification method. Using a random forest model, we showed the environmental preferences pattern, spatial occurrence and acoustic behaviour of Antarctic blue whales. Distance to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SBACC), latitude and distance from the nearest Antarctic shores were the main geographic predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Satellite-derived sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and productivity (chlorophyll-a) were the most important environmental predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Call rates of D-calls were strongly predicted by the location of the SBACC, latitude and visually detected number of whales in an area while call rates of Z-call were predicted by the SBACC, latitude and longitude. Satellite-derived sea surface height, wind stress, wind direction, water depth, sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and wind speed were important environmental predictors of blue whale call rates in the Southern Ocean. Blue whale call occurrence and call rates varied significantly in response to inter-annual and long term variability of those environmental predictors. Our results identify the response of Antarctic blue whales to inter-annual variability in environmental conditions and highlighted potential suitable habitats for this population. Such emerging knowledge about the acoustic behaviour, environmental and habitat preferences of Antarctic blue whales is important in improving the management and conservation of this highly depleted species.

Regional and inter-annual variability in Atlantic zooplankton en route to the Arctic Ocean: potential effects of multi-path Atlantic water advection through Fram Strait and the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwasniewski, Slawomir; Gluchowska, Marta; Trudnowska, Emilia; Ormanczyk, Mateusz; Walczowski, Waldemar; Beszczynska-Moeller, Agnieszka

2016-04-01

The Arctic is among the regions where the climate change effects on ecosystem will be the most rapid and consequential, with Arctic amplification recognized as an integral part of the process. Great part of the changes are forced by advection of warm waters from the North Atlantic and the expected modifications of Arctic marine ecosystem will be induced not only by changing environmental conditions but also as a result of introducing Atlantic biota. Thus, the knowledge of physical and biological heterogeneity of Atlantic inflow is requisite for understanding the effects of climate change on biological diversity and ecosystem functioning in the Arctic. The complex and variable two-branched structure of the Atlantic Water flow via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea most likely has a strong influence on the ocean biology in these regions, especially in the pelagic realm. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems which form essential links between primary producers and grazer/predator consumers, thus they are important for functioning of the biological carbon pump. Changes in zooplankton distribution and abundance may have cascading effects on ecosystem functioning, with regulatory effects on climate. Based on data collected in summers of 2012-2014, within the scope of the Polish-Norwegian PAVE research project, we investigate zooplankton distribution, abundance and selected structural characteristics of communities, in relation to water mass properties in the Atlantic Water complex flow to the Arctic Ocean. The main questions addressed here are: what are the differences in zooplankton patterns between the Fram Strait and Barents Sea branches, and how does the inter-annual variability of Atlantic Water advection relate to changes in zooplankton? The results of the investigation are precondition for foreseeing changes in the pelagic realm in the Arctic Ocean and are necessary for constructing and tuning plankton components of ecosystem models.

Adaptive developmental delay in Chagas disease vectors: an evolutionary ecology approach.

PubMed

Menu, Frédéric; Ginoux, Marine; Rajon, Etienne; Lazzari, Claudio R; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2010-05-25

The developmental time of vector insects is important in population dynamics, evolutionary biology, epidemiology and in their responses to global climatic change. In the triatomines (Triatominae, Reduviidae), vectors of Chagas disease, evolutionary ecology concepts, which may allow for a better understanding of their biology, have not been applied. Despite delay in the molting in some individuals observed in triatomines, no effort was made to explain this variability. We applied four methods: (1) an e-mail survey sent to 30 researchers with experience in triatomines, (2) a statistical description of the developmental time of eleven triatomine species, (3) a relationship between development time pattern and climatic inter-annual variability, (4) a mathematical optimization model of evolution of developmental delay (diapause). 85.6% of responses informed on prolonged developmental times in 5(th) instar nymphs, with 20 species identified with remarkable developmental delays. The developmental time analysis showed some degree of bi-modal pattern of the development time of the 5(th) instars in nine out of eleven species but no trend between development time pattern and climatic inter-annual variability was observed. Our optimization model predicts that the developmental delays could be due to an adaptive risk-spreading diapause strategy, only if survival throughout the diapause period and the probability of random occurrence of "bad" environmental conditions are sufficiently high. Developmental delay may not be a simple non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity in development time, and could be a form of adaptive diapause associated to a physiological mechanism related to the postponement of the initiation of reproduction, as an adaptation to environmental stochasticity through a spreading of risk (bet-hedging) strategy. We identify a series of parameters that can be measured in the field and laboratory to test this hypothesis. The importance of these findings is discussed in terms of global climatic change and epidemiological consequences.

Analysis of variance to assess statistical significance of Laplacian estimation accuracy improvement due to novel variable inter-ring distances concentric ring electrodes.

PubMed

Makeyev, Oleksandr; Joe, Cody; Lee, Colin; Besio, Walter G

2017-07-01

Concentric ring electrodes have shown promise in non-invasive electrophysiological measurement demonstrating their superiority to conventional disc electrodes, in particular, in accuracy of Laplacian estimation. Recently, we have proposed novel variable inter-ring distances concentric ring electrodes. Analytic and finite element method modeling results for linearly increasing distances electrode configurations suggested they may decrease the truncation error resulting in more accurate Laplacian estimates compared to currently used constant inter-ring distances configurations. This study assesses statistical significance of Laplacian estimation accuracy improvement due to novel variable inter-ring distances concentric ring electrodes. Full factorial design of analysis of variance was used with one categorical and two numerical factors: the inter-ring distances, the electrode diameter, and the number of concentric rings in the electrode. The response variables were the Relative Error and the Maximum Error of Laplacian estimation computed using a finite element method model for each of the combinations of levels of three factors. Effects of the main factors and their interactions on Relative Error and Maximum Error were assessed and the obtained results suggest that all three factors have statistically significant effects in the model confirming the potential of using inter-ring distances as a means of improving accuracy of Laplacian estimation.

SU-E-J-266: Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) Inter-Scan and Inter-Observer Tumor Volume Variability Assessment in Patients Treated with Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) for Early Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, Y; Aileen, C; Kozono, D

Purpose: Quantification of volume changes on CBCT during SBRT for NSCLC may provide a useful radiological marker for radiation response and adaptive treatment planning, but the reproducibility of CBCT volume delineation is a concern. This study is to quantify inter-scan/inter-observer variability in tumor volume delineation on CBCT. Methods: Twenty earlystage (stage I and II) NSCLC patients were included in this analysis. All patients were treated with SBRT with a median dose of 54 Gy in 3 to 5 fractions. Two physicians independently manually contoured the primary gross tumor volume on CBCTs taken immediately before SBRT treatment (Pre) and after themore » same SBRT treatment (Post). Absolute volume differences (AVD) were calculated between the Pre and Post CBCTs for a given treatment to quantify inter-scan variability, and then between the two observers for a given CBCT to quantify inter-observer variability. AVD was also normalized with respect to average volume to obtain relative volume differences (RVD). Bland-Altman approach was used to evaluate variability. All statistics were calculated with SAS version 9.4. Results: The 95% limit of agreement (mean ± 2SD) on AVD and RVD measurements between Pre and Post scans were −0.32cc to 0.32cc and −0.5% to 0.5% versus −1.9 cc to 1.8 cc and −15.9% to 15.3% for the two observers respectively. The 95% limit of agreement of AVD and RVD between the two observers were −3.3 cc to 2.3 cc and −42.4% to 28.2% respectively. The greatest variability in inter-scan RVD was observed with very small tumors (< 5 cc). Conclusion: Inter-scan variability in RVD is greatest with small tumors. Inter-observer variability was larger than inter-scan variability. The 95% limit of agreement for inter-observer and inter-scan variability (∼15–30%) helps define a threshold for clinically meaningful change in tumor volume to assess SBRT response, with larger thresholds needed for very small tumors. Part of the work was funded by a Kaye award; Disclosure/Conflict of interest: Raymond H. Mak: Stock ownership: Celgene, Inc. Consulting: Boehringer-Ingelheim, Inc.« less

Winter atmospheric circulation signature for the timing of the spring bloom of diatoms in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, Gerrit; Wiltshire, Karen

2015-04-01

Analysing long-term diatom data from the German Bight and observational climate data for the period 1962-2005, we found a close connection of the inter-annual variation of the timing of the spring bloom with the boreal winter atmospheric circulation. We examined the fact that high diatom counts of the spring bloom tended to occur later when the atmospheric circulation was characterized by winter blocking over Scandinavia. The associated pattern in the sea level pressure showed a pressure dipole with two centres located over the Azores and Norway and was tilted compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The bloom was earlier when the cyclonic circulation over Scandinavia allowed an increased inflow of Atlantic water into the North Sea which is associated with clearer, more marine water, and warmer conditions. The bloom was later when a more continental atmospheric flow from the east was detected. At Helgoland Roads, it seems that under turbid water conditions (= low light) zooplankton grazing can affect the timing of the phytoplankton bloom negatively. Warmer water temperatures will facilitate this. Under clear water conditions, light will be the main governing factor with regard to the timing of the spring bloom. These different water conditions are shown here to be mainly related to large-scale weather patterns. We found that the mean diatom bloom could be predicted from the sea level pressure one to three months in advance. Using historical pressure data, we derived a proxy for the timing of the spring bloom over the last centuries, showing an increased number of late (proxy-) blooms during the eighteenth century when the climate was considerably colder than today. We argue that these variations are important for the interpretation of inter-annual to centennial variations of biological processes. This is of particular interest when considering future scenarios, as well to considerations on past and future effects on the primary production and food webs.

Inter-Facility Patient Transfers in Ontario: Do You Know What Your Local Ambulance Is Being Used For?

PubMed Central

Robinson, Victoria; Goel, Vivek; MacDonald, Russell D.; Manuel, Doug

2009-01-01

Background: Little is known about inter-facility patient transfers in populations. In 2003, detailed information about inter-facility patient transfers began to be systematically collected in Ontario. Methodology: The authors undertook a descriptive examination of inter-facility patient transfers using a newly created population-based information system. Results: Approximately 1,000 inter-facility patient transfers occur in Ontario each day, and every day and a half, the total distance travelled for these transfers equals the distance around the earth's circumference. The annual cost for patient transfers is approximately $283 million. Most common were routine and non-urgent inter-facility patient transfers. Eighty-five thousand patients (24.3% of transferred patients) were transported between healthcare facilities for dialysis appointments, appointments with physicians and return trips home. Patients with circulatory conditions were the most commonly transferred diagnostic group. Although 70% of all transfers were within 25 kilometres, some were for longer distances: for example, those involving pregnant women and newborn babies required travelling a median distance of 40.3 kilometres for continued care. Cardiac patients (54,000 patient transfers per year) travelled a median of 24.2 kilometres to reach a catheterization lab for treatment and further investigation. There was considerable lateral movement between academic health sciences centres (AHSCs). Over 16,000 patients per year (4.7% of all transfers) were transferred from one AHSC to another, predominantly for cardiac care. Discussion: Patients in Ontario are often transferred between healthcare facilities. Most transfers are for routine, non–life-threatening reasons, using the Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system. This practice diverts resources from more emergent requests. Although patient transportation is a necessary part of any healthcare system, the results of this study highlight the current demands on a system that was not intended for the volume of inter-facility patient transfers it is supporting. These results call into question the use of sophisticated, highly trained, expensive patient transfer resources to provide routine medical services in Ontario. PMID:19377355

Hydrological impact of high-density small dams in a humid catchment, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, W.; Lei, H.; Yang, D.

2017-12-01

The Jiulong River basin is a humid catchment with a drainage area of 14,741 km2; however, it has over 1000 hydropower stations within it. Such catchment with high-density small dams is scarce in China. Yet few is known about the impact of high-density small dams on streamflow changes. To what extent the large number of dams alters the hydrologic patterns is a fundamental scientific issue for water resources management, flood control, and aquatic ecological environment protection. Firstly, trend and change point analyses are applied to determine the characteristics of inter-annual streamflow. Based on the detected change point, the study period is divided into two study periods, the ``natural'' and ``disturbed'' periods. Then, a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) and the fixing-changing method are adopted to evaluate the relative contributions of climate variations and damming to the changes in streamflow at each temporal scale (i.e., from daily, monthly to annual). Based on the simulated natural streamflow, the impact of dam construction on hydrologic alteration and aquatic ecological environment will be evaluated. The hydrologic signatures that will be investigated include flood peak, seasonality of streamflow, and the inter-annual variability of streamflow. In particular, the impacts of damming on aquatic ecological environment will be investigated using eco-flow metrics and indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) which contains 33 individual streamflow statistics that are closely related to aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study expect to provide a reference for reservoir operation considering both ecological and economic benefits of such operations in the catchment with high-density dams.

Anopheles atroparvus density modeling using MODIS NDVI in a former malarious area in Portugal.

PubMed

Lourenço, Pedro M; Sousa, Carla A; Seixas, Júlia; Lopes, Pedro; Novo, Maria T; Almeida, A Paulo G

2011-12-01

Malaria is dependent on environmental factors and considered as potentially re-emerging in temperate regions. Remote sensing data have been used successfully for monitoring environmental conditions that influence the patterns of such arthropod vector-borne diseases. Anopheles atroparvus density data were collected from 2002 to 2005, on a bimonthly basis, at three sites in a former malarial area in Southern Portugal. The development of the Remote Vector Model (RVM) was based upon two main variables: temperature and the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra satellite. Temperature influences the mosquito life cycle and affects its intra-annual prevalence, and MODIS NDVI was used as a proxy for suitable habitat conditions. Mosquito data were used for calibration and validation of the model. For areas with high mosquito density, the model validation demonstrated a Pearson correlation of 0.68 (p<0.05) and a modelling efficiency/Nash-Sutcliffe of 0.44 representing the model's ability to predict intra- and inter-annual vector density trends. RVM estimates the density of the former malarial vector An. atroparvus as a function of temperature and of MODIS NDVI. RVM is a satellite data-based assimilation algorithm that uses temperature fields to predict the intra- and inter-annual densities of this mosquito species using MODIS NDVI. RVM is a relevant tool for vector density estimation, contributing to the risk assessment of transmission of mosquito-borne diseases and can be part of the early warning system and contingency plans providing support to the decision making process of relevant authorities. © 2011 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Detecting oscillatory patterns and time lags from proxy records with non-uniform sampling: Some pitfalls and possible solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, Reik

2013-04-01

Time series analysis offers a rich toolbox for deciphering information from high-resolution geological and geomorphological archives and linking the thus obtained results to distinct climate and environmental processes. Specifically, on various time-scales from inter-annual to multi-millenial, underlying driving forces exhibit more or less periodic oscillations, the detection of which in proxy records often allows linking them to specific mechanisms by which the corresponding drivers may have affected the archive under study. A persistent problem in geomorphology is that available records do not present a clear signal of the variability of environmental conditions, but exhibit considerable uncertainties of both the measured proxy variables and the associated age model. Particularly, time-scale uncertainty as well as the heterogeneity of sampling in the time domain are source of severe conceptual problems that may lead to false conclusions about the presence or absence of oscillatory patterns and their mutual phasing in different archives. In my presentation, I will discuss how one can cope with non-uniformly sampled proxy records to detect and quantify oscillatory patterns in one or more data sets. For this purpose, correlation analysis is reformulated using kernel estimates which are found superior to classical estimators based on interpolation or Fourier transform techniques. In order to characterize non-stationary or noisy periodicities and their relative phasing between different records, an extension of continuous wavelet transform is utilized. The performance of both methods is illustrated for different case studies. An extension to explicitly considering time-scale uncertainties by means of Bayesian techniques is briefly outlined.

Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merz, Bruno; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

2016-10-01

The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role.

A Poisson regression approach to model monthly hail occurrence in Northern Switzerland using large-scale environmental variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madonna, Erica; Ginsbourger, David; Martius, Olivia

2018-05-01

In Switzerland, hail regularly causes substantial damage to agriculture, cars and infrastructure, however, little is known about its long-term variability. To study the variability, the monthly number of days with hail in northern Switzerland is modeled in a regression framework using large-scale predictors derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis. The model is developed and verified using radar-based hail observations for the extended summer season (April-September) in the period 2002-2014. The seasonality of hail is explicitly modeled with a categorical predictor (month) and monthly anomalies of several large-scale predictors are used to capture the year-to-year variability. Several regression models are applied and their performance tested with respect to standard scores and cross-validation. The chosen model includes four predictors: the monthly anomaly of the two meter temperature, the monthly anomaly of the logarithm of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the monthly anomaly of the wind shear and the month. This model well captures the intra-annual variability and slightly underestimates its inter-annual variability. The regression model is applied to the reanalysis data back in time to 1980. The resulting hail day time series shows an increase of the number of hail days per month, which is (in the model) related to an increase in temperature and CAPE. The trend corresponds to approximately 0.5 days per month per decade. The results of the regression model have been compared to two independent data sets. All data sets agree on the sign of the trend, but the trend is weaker in the other data sets.

[Analysis of the technical efficiency of hospitals in the Spanish National Health Service].

PubMed

Pérez-Romero, Carmen; Ortega-Díaz, M Isabel; Ocaña-Riola, Ricardo; Martín-Martín, José Jesús

To analyse the technical efficiency and productivity of general hospitals in the Spanish National Health Service (NHS) (2010-2012) and identify explanatory hospital and regional variables. 230 NHS hospitals were analysed by data envelopment analysis for overall, technical and scale efficiency, and Malmquist index. The robustness of the analysis is contrasted with alternative input-output models. A fixed effects multilevel cross-sectional linear model was used to analyse the explanatory efficiency variables. The average rate of overall technical efficiency (OTE) was 0.736 in 2012; there was considerable variability by region. Malmquist index (2010-2012) is 1.013. A 23% variability in OTE is attributable to the region in question. Statistically significant exogenous variables (residents per 100 physicians, aging index, average annual income per household, essential public service expenditure and public health expenditure per capita) explain 42% of the OTE variability between hospitals and 64% between regions. The number of residents showed a statistically significant relationship. As regards regions, there is a statistically significant direct linear association between OTE and annual income per capita and essential public service expenditure, and an indirect association with the aging index and annual public health expenditure per capita. The significant room for improvement in the efficiency of hospitals is conditioned by region-specific characteristics, specifically aging, wealth and the public expenditure policies of each one. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin

2012-09-01

Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P < 0.01 or P < 0.05) during MAM, SON, and DJF, as well as in Europe during MAM and SON period. A negative correlation for more stations was observed during JJA. For precipitation, there were many stations showed a significant positive correlation with inter-annual variation of global FPAR (P < 0.01 or P < 0.05), especially for the tropical rainfall forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.

Distribution and predictors of wing shape and size variability in three sister species of solitary bees

PubMed Central

Prunier, Jérôme G.; Dewulf, Alexandre; Kuhlmann, Michael; Michez, Denis

2017-01-01

Morphological traits can be highly variable over time in a particular geographical area. Different selective pressures shape those traits, which is crucial in evolutionary biology. Among these traits, insect wing morphometry has already been widely used to describe phenotypic variability at the inter-specific level. On the contrary, fewer studies have focused on intra-specific wing morphometric variability. Yet, such investigations are relevant to study potential convergences of variation that could highlight micro-evolutionary processes. The recent sampling and sequencing of three solitary bees of the genus Melitta across their entire species range provides an excellent opportunity to jointly analyse genetic and morphometric variability. In the present study, we first aim to analyse the spatial distribution of the wing shape and centroid size (used as a proxy for body size) variability. Secondly, we aim to test different potential predictors of this variability at both the intra- and inter-population levels, which includes genetic variability, but also geographic locations and distances, elevation, annual mean temperature and precipitation. The comparison of spatial distribution of intra-population morphometric diversity does not reveal any convergent pattern between species, thus undermining the assumption of a potential local and selective adaptation at the population level. Regarding intra-specific wing shape differentiation, our results reveal that some tested predictors, such as geographic and genetic distances, are associated with a significant correlation for some species. However, none of these predictors are systematically identified for the three species as an important factor that could explain the intra-specific morphometric variability. As a conclusion, for the three solitary bee species and at the scale of this study, our results clearly tend to discard the assumption of the existence of a common pattern of intra-specific signal/structure within the intra-specific wing shape and body size variability. PMID:28273178

The measurement of water scarcity: Defining a meaningful indicator.

PubMed

Damkjaer, Simon; Taylor, Richard

2017-09-01

Metrics of water scarcity and stress have evolved over the last three decades from simple threshold indicators to holistic measures characterising human environments and freshwater sustainability. Metrics commonly estimate renewable freshwater resources using mean annual river runoff, which masks hydrological variability, and quantify subjectively socio-economic conditions characterising adaptive capacity. There is a marked absence of research evaluating whether these metrics of water scarcity are meaningful. We argue that measurement of water scarcity (1) be redefined physically in terms of the freshwater storage required to address imbalances in intra- and inter-annual fluxes of freshwater supply and demand; (2) abandons subjective quantifications of human environments and (3) be used to inform participatory decision-making processes that explore a wide range of options for addressing freshwater storage requirements beyond dams that include use of renewable groundwater, soil water and trading in virtual water. Further, we outline a conceptual framework redefining water scarcity in terms of freshwater storage.

Establishing nursery estuary otolith geochemical tags for Sea Bass (Dicentrarchus labrax): Is temporal stability estuary dependent?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, Diarmuid; Wögerbauer, Ciara; Roche, William

2016-12-01

The ability to determine connectivity between juveniles in nursery estuaries and adult populations is an important tool for fisheries management. Otoliths of juvenile fish contain geochemical tags, which reflect the variation in estuarine elemental chemistry, and allow discrimination of their natal and/or nursery estuaries. These tags can be used to investigate connectivity patterns between juveniles and adults. However, inter-annual variability of geochemical tags may limit the accuracy of nursery origin determinations. Otolith elemental composition was used to assign a single cohort of 0-group sea bass Dicentrarchus labrax to their nursery estuary thus establishing an initial baseline for stocks in waters around Ireland. Using a standard LDFA model, high classification accuracies to nursery sites (80-88%) were obtained. Temporal stability of otolith geochemical tags was also investigated to assess if annual sampling is required for connectivity studies. Geochemical tag stability was found to be strongly estuary dependent.

European Climate and Pinot Noir Grape-Harvest Dates in Burgundy, since the 17th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourre, Y. M.

2011-12-01

Time-series of growing season air temperature anomalies in the Parisian region and of 'Pinot Noir' grape-harvest dates (GHD) in Burgundy (1676-2004) are analyzed in the frequency-domain. Variability of both time-series display three significant frequency-bands (peaks significant at the 5% level) i.e., a low-frequency band (multi-decadal) with a 25-year peak period; a 3-to-8 year band period (inter-annual) with a 3.1-year peak period; and a 2-to-3 year band period (quasi-biennial) with a 2.4-year peak period. Joint sea surface temperature/sea level pressure (SST/SLP) empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analyses during the 20th century, along with spatio-temporal patterns for the above frequency-bands are presented. It is found that SST anomalies display early significant spatial SST patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean (air temperature lagging by 6 months) similar to those obtained from EOF analyses. It is thus proposed that the robust power spectra for the above frequency-bands could be linked with Atlantic climate variability metrics modulating Western European climate i.e., 1) the global Multi-decadal Oscillation (MDO) with its Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) footprint; 2) the Atlantic Inter-Annual (IA) fluctuations; and 3) the Atlantic Quasi-Biennial (QB) fluctuations, respectively. Moreover these specific Western European climate signals have effects on ecosystem health and can be perceived as contributors to the length of the growing season and the timing of GHD in Burgundy. Thus advance knowledge on the evolution and phasing of the above climate fluctuations become important elements for viticulture and wine industry management. It is recognized that anthropogenic effects could have modified time-series patterns presented here, particularly since the mid 1980s.

Modelling temporal and spatial dynamics of benthic fauna in North-West-European shelf seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lessin, Gennadi; Bruggeman, Jorn; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Blackford, Jerry

2017-04-01

Benthic zones of shallow shelf seas receive high amounts of organic material. Physical processes such as resuspension, as well as complex transformations mediated by diverse faunal and microbial communities, define fate of this material, which can be returned to the water column, reworked within sediments or ultimately buried. In recent years, numerical models of various complexity and serving different goals have been developed and applied in order to better understand and predict dynamics of benthic processes. ERSEM includes explicit parameterisations of several groups of benthic biota, which makes it particularly applicable for studies of benthic biodiversity, biological interactions within sediments and benthic-pelagic coupling. To assess model skill in reproducing temporal (inter-annual and seasonal) dynamics of major benthic macrofaunal groups, 1D model simulation results were compared with data from the Western Channel Observatory (WCO) benthic survey. The benthic model was forced with organic matter deposition rates inferred from observed phytoplankton abundance and model parameters were subsequently recalibrated. Based on model results and WCO data comparison, deposit-feeders exert clear seasonal variability, while for suspension-feeders inter-annual variability is more pronounced. Spatial distribution of benthic fauna was investigated using results of a full-scale NEMO-ERSEM hindcast simulation of the North-West European Shelf Seas area, covering the period of 1981-2014. Results suggest close relationship between spatial distribution of biomass of benthic faunal functional groups in relation to bathymetry, hydrodynamic conditions and organic matter supply. Our work highlights that it is feasible to construct, implement and validate models that explicitly include functional groups of benthic macrofauna. Moreover, the modelling approach delivers detailed information on benthic biogeochemistry and food-web at spatial and temporal scales that are unavailable through other sources but highly relevant to marine management, planning and policy.

Potential predictability of Northern America surface temperature in AGCMs and CGCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Youmin; Chen, Dake; Yan, Xiaoqin

2015-07-01

In this study, the potential predictability of the Northern America (NA) surface air temperature (SAT) was explored using an information-based predictability framework and two multiple model ensemble products: a one-tier prediction by coupled models (T1), and a two-tier prediction by atmospheric models only (T2). Furthermore, the potential predictability was optimally decomposed into different modes for both T1 and T2, by extracting the most predictable structures. Emphasis was placed on the comparison of the predictability between T1 and T2. It was found that the potential predictability of the NA SAT is seasonal and spatially dependent in both T1 and T2. Higher predictability occurs in spring and winter and over the southeastern US and northwestern Canada. There is no significant difference of potential predictability between T1 and T2 for most areas of NA, although T1 has higher potential predictability than T2 in the southeastern US. Both T1 and T2 display similar most predictable components (PrCs) for the NA SAT, characterized by the inter-annual variability mode and the long-term trend mode. The first one is inherent to the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forcing, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, whereas the second one is closely associated with global warming. In general, the PrC modes can better characterize the predictability in T1 than in T2, in particular for the inter-annual variability mode in the fall. The prediction skill against observations is better measured by the PrC analysis than by principal component analysis for all seasons, indicating the stronger capability of PrCA in extracting prediction targets.

Nine years of mass transport data in the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; MachíN, Francisco; VéLez-Belchí, Pedro; López-Laatzen, Federico; Borges, Rafael; BeníTez-Barrios, Verónica; HernáNdez-Guerra, Alonso

2010-09-01

One of the longest current meter time series in the Lanzarote Passage in the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre has been used to determine and quantify the 9-year mean transport, the inter-annual and seasonal mass transport variability for the three water masses present in the area. Results show North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) flowing southward in the upper levels with a mean mass transport of -0.81 ± 1.48 Sv, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flowing northward at intermediate levels with a mean transport of +0.09 ± 0.57 Sv and Mediterranean Water (MW) flowing southward in the deep part of the passage with a mean transport of -0.05 ± 0.17 Sv. Harmonic and wavelet analysis show the presence of a seasonal pattern in the passage for the three water masses. A maximum southward transport in winter and spring has been observed for the NACW followed by a minimum in summer and fall. Near zero values during winter and spring are found for AAIW, with a maximum northward value in summer and a negative value in fall, when this water mass reverses its flow. MW has a similar seasonal pattern to NACW. The vertical structure in the Lanzarote Passage can be approximated by four significant oscillatory modes which cumulatively explain 86.4% of the variance. The strong transport fluctuation found at the seasonal and inter-annual timescales demonstrates that the Eastern Boundary Current transport has a strong impact on meridional overturning estimates, thus indicating that to understand Meridional Overturning Circulation variability, these transport estimates at the eastern Atlantic margin are necessary.

Weather and Large-Scale Dust Activity during Martian Northern Spring and Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kass, David M.; Kleinboehl, Armin; McCleese, Daniel J.; Schofield, John Tim; Smith, Michael D.; Heavens, Nicholas

2016-10-01

Observations from MCS, TES and THEMIS now span the northern spring and summer seasons (Ls 0° to 180°) of 10 consecutive Mars Years (MY 24 through MY 33). These observations show very similar behavior each year. However, there are also noticeable differences and clear signs of inter-annual variability. To best study the three datasets, we examine zonal mean observations of the lower atmosphere (50 Pa, or ~25 km). This region was selected to provide the best quality from all three instruments. We separate the daytime (afternoon) and nighttime (early morning) data in the analysis.The climate at these seasons is dominated by the aphelion cloud belt, and 50 Pa is often close to the peak opacities in the clouds. There is also a strong diurnal thermal tide signature throughout the season at this altitude. The overall behavior is a rapid cooling at the start of the year (as the dust from the dusty season sediments out of the atmosphere) over the the first ~30° of Ls. The coldest temperatures then last until about the solstice and are followed by a slow warming trend through most of the rest of the season. The last ~30° prior to the fall equinox show a more rapid warming trend and significant inter-annual variability. In about half of the years, there is a warming event of the 50 Pa temperatures in the second half of northern summer. The warming is the signature of dust being lofted above the boundary layer, into the lower atmosphere. Due to the relatively clear atmosphere overall, even modest amounts of dust will create noticeable temperature changes. The temperature signature of the dust is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere.

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

Strengths and Limitations of Operational Use of 1 Km EO Biophysical Products for Regional Prediction of Grain Yelds in Europe (wheat, barley and maize)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meroni, M.; LEO, O.; Lopez-Lozano, R.; Baruth, B.; Duveiller, G.; Garcia-Condado, S.; Hooker, J.; Seguini, L.

2014-12-01

The site-specific relationship between EO indicators and actual crop yields has been explored in many different studies, describing semi-empirical regression models between spatially aggregated biophysical parameters or vegetation indices and observed yields (from field measurements or official statistics). However, when considering larger extensions -from countries to continents- agro-climatic conditions and crop management may differ substantially among regions, and these differences may greatly influence the relationship between biophysical indicators and the observed yields, which may be also driven by limiting factors other than green biomass formation. The present study aims to better assess the contribution of EO indicators within an operational crop yield forecasting system in Europe and neighbouring countries, by evaluating how these above mentioned geographic differences influence the relationship between biophysical indicators and crop yield. We therefore explore, as a first step, the correspondence between fAPAR time-series (1999-2013) and the inter-annual yield variability of wheat, barley and grain maize, at sub-national level across Europe (270-450 Administrative Units, depending on crop). In a second step, we map the agro-climatic contexts in which EO indicators better explain the observed yield inter-annual variability, identify the influence of some meteorological events on the fAPAR -yield relationship and provide some recommendations for further investigation. The results indicate that in water-limited environments (e.g. Mediterranean and Black Sea areas), fAPAR is highly correlated with yields whereas in northern Europe, crop yield appears much less limited by leaf area expansion along the season, and the relationship between yield and EO products becomes more difficult to interpret.

Challenges for mapping cyanotoxin patterns from remote sensing of cyanobacteria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stumpf, Rick P; Davis, Timothy W.; Wynne, Timothy T.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Loftin, Keith A.; Johengen, T.H.; Gossiaux, D.; Palladino, D.; Burtner, A.

2016-01-01

Using satellite imagery to quantify the spatial patterns of cyanobacterial toxins has several challenges. These challenges include the need for surrogate pigments – since cyanotoxins cannot be directly detected by remote sensing, the variability in the relationship between the pigments and cyanotoxins – especially microcystins (MC), and the lack of standardization of the various measurement methods. A dual-model strategy can provide an approach to address these challenges. One model uses either chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) or phycocyanin (PC) collected in situ as a surrogate to estimate the MC concentration. The other uses a remote sensing algorithm to estimate the concentration of the surrogate pigment. Where blooms are mixtures of cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae, PC should be the preferred surrogate to Chl-a. Where cyanobacteria dominate, Chl-a is a better surrogate than PC for remote sensing. Phycocyanin is less sensitive to detection by optical remote sensing, it is less frequently measured, PC laboratory methods are still not standardized, and PC has greater intracellular variability. Either pigment should not be presumed to have a fixed relationship with MC for any water body. The MC-pigment relationship can be valid over weeks, but have considerable intra- and inter-annual variability due to changes in the amount of MC produced relative to cyanobacterial biomass. To detect pigments by satellite, three classes of algorithms (analytic, semi-analytic, and derivative) have been used. Analytical and semi-analytical algorithms are more sensitive but less robust than derivatives because they depend on accurate atmospheric correction; as a result derivatives are more commonly used. Derivatives can estimate Chl-a concentration, and research suggests they can detect and possibly quantify PC. Derivative algorithms, however, need to be standardized in order to evaluate the reproducibility of parameterizations between lakes. A strategy for producing useful estimates of microcystins from cyanobacterial biomass is described, provided cyanotoxin variability is addressed.

Factors influencing inter-annual variability of growing season optimum gross primary production and ecosystem respiration in a semi-arid savanna ecosystem: A case study of Skukuza, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brummer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Falge, E. M.; Mudau, A.; Odipo, V.; Schmullius, C.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; Thomas, C. K.; Kutsch, W. L.; Scholes, R. J.; Berger, C.

2016-12-01

The goal of this study was to improve understanding of factors affecting temporal carbon metabolism at a natural savanna site near Skukuza, South Africa. We investigated inter-annual variability of optimum gross primary production (GPPopt) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) from 2000-2014. GPPopt refers to maximum total amount of carbon fixed by plants per unit area and time. Carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes have been measured continuously at a 16 m tower at Skukuza using eddy covariance technique since 2000. The GPPopt and Reco parameters were derived from modelled light response curve fits of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for summer `vegetative' periods. Hydro-ecological years (HEY) were stratified into functional seasons and data were classified into three soil moisture (SM) classes, i.e. wet (SM ≥ 9%), drying (6%< SM ≤9%) and dry periods (SM ≤ 6%), in order to separate biologically functional periods from periods of water constraints. For each SM class data were sub-classified into four air temperature (Tair) classes to separate Tair effects on NEE response to light. Wet periods recorded higher GPPopt and Reco estimates compared to drying periods. The curve fits for dry periods were not significant. We found high variability of GPPopt and Reco from `summer' to `summer' of each HEY. Wet period GPPopt of 2008/2009 and 2010/2011 were highest with 29.2±1.8 and 32.7±1.6 µmol CO2 m-2s-1, respectively, whilst 2006/2007 recorded the lowest GPPopt of 6.5±1.3 µmol CO2 m-2s-1 for Tair class `20°Cair≤25°C'. A similar pattern for Reco trend was observed. We also investigated the influence of rainfall distribution and amount, vapour pressure deficit, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) on the GPPopt and Reco trends and found a high correlation between GPPopt and variables NDVI and EVI. Our findings have implications in understanding causality and temporal dynamics of GPPopt and Reco in precipitation pulse-driven semi-arid ecosystems.

Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Guangyao; Zhang, Jianjun; Liu, Yu; Ning, Zheng; Fu, Bojie; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2017-09-01

Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961-2011), showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space-time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i) the effect of precipitation and (ii) the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation-sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events) also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

Differing Roles of Functional Movement Variability as Experience Increases in Gymnastics

PubMed Central

Busquets, Albert; Marina, Michel; Davids, Keith; Angulo-Barroso, Rosa

2016-01-01

Current theories, like Ecological Dynamics, propose that inter-trial movement variability is functional when acquiring or refining movement coordination. Here, we examined how age-based experience levels of gymnasts constrained differences in emergent movement pattern variability during task performance. Specifically, we investigated different roles of movement pattern variability when gymnasts in different age groups performed longswings on a high bar, capturing the range of experience from beginner to advanced status. We also investigated the functionality of the relationships between levels of inter-trial variability and longswing amplitude during performance. One-hundred and thirteen male gymnasts in five age groups were observed performing longswings (with three different experience levels: beginners, intermediates and advanced performers). Performance was evaluated by analysis of key events in coordination of longswing focused on the arm-trunk and trunk-thigh segmental relations. Results revealed that 10 of 18 inter-trial variability measures changed significantly as a function of increasing task experience. Four of ten variability measures conformed to a U-shaped function with age implying exploratory strategies amongst beginners and functional adaptive variability amongst advanced performers. Inter-trial variability of arm-trunk coordination variables (6 of 10) conformed to a \\-shaped curve, as values were reduced to complete the longswings. Changes in coordination variability from beginner to intermediate status were largely restrictive, with only one variability measure related to exploration. Data revealed how inter-trial movement variability in gymnastics, relative to performance outcomes, needs careful interpretation, implying different roles as task experience changes. Key points Inter-trial variability while performing longswings on a high bar was assessed in a large sample (113 participants) divided into five age groups (form beginners to advanced gymnasts). Longswing assessment allowed us to evaluate inter-trial variability in representative performance context. Coordination variability presented two different configurations across experience levels depending on the variable of interest: either a U-shaped or a L- or \\-shaped graph. Increased inter-trial variability of the functional phase events offered flexibility to adapt the longswing performance in the advanced gymnasts, while decreasing variability in arm-trunk coordination modes was critical to improve longswing and to achieve the most advanced level. In addition, the relationship between variability measures and the global performance outcome (i.e. the swing amplitude) revealed different functional roles of movement variability (exploratory or restrictive) as a function of changes in experience levels. PMID:27274664

Permafrost as an additional driving factor for the extreme fire event in the boreal Baikal region in 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, M.; Thonicke, K.; Beer, C.; Cramer, W.; Bartalev, S.; Schmullius, C.

2012-04-01

Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amount of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope, and dry conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. In the Baikal region, 127,000 km2 burned in 2003, while the annual average burned area is approx. 8100 km2. In average years, 16% of the burned area occurred in the continuous permafrost zone but in 2003, 33% of these burned areas coincide with the existence of permanently frozen grounds. Permafrost and the associated upper active layer, which thaws during summer and refreezes during winter, is an important supply for soil moisture in boreal ecosystems. This leads to the question if permafrost hydrology is a potential additional driving factor for extreme fire events in boreal forests. Using temperature and precipitation data, we calculated the Nesterov index as indicator for fire weather conditions. Further, we used satellite observations of burned area and surface moisture, a digital elevation model, a land cover and a permafrost map to evaluate drivers for the temporal dynamic and spatial variability of surface moisture conditions and burned area in spring 2003. On the basis of time series decomposition, we separated the effect of drivers for fire activity on different time scales. We next computed cross-correlations to identify potential time lags between weather conditions, surface moisture and fire activity. Finally, we assessed the predictive capability of different combinations of driving variables for surface moisture conditions and burned area using multivariate spatial-temporal regression models. The results from this study demonstrate that permafrost in larch-dominated ecosystems regulates the inter-annual variability of surface moisture and thus increases the inter-annual variability of burned area. The drought conditions in spring 2003 were accelerated by the presence of permafrost because less water was stored in the upper active layer from the dry previous summer 2002 and the permafrost table prevents vegetative water uptake from deeper layers. In contrast, weather conditions (precipitation anomaly, Nesterov index) are weaker predictors for the 2003 fire event. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil on how feedback mechanisms can lead to extreme fire events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, and fire activity in earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century.

The AMMA-CATCH Gourma observatory site in Mali: Relating climatic variations to changes in vegetation, surface hydrology, fluxes and natural resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mougin, E.; Hiernaux, P.; Kergoat, L.; Grippa, M.; de Rosnay, P.; Timouk, F.; Le Dantec, V.; Demarez, V.; Lavenu, F.; Arjounin, M.; Lebel, T.; Soumaguel, N.; Ceschia, E.; Mougenot, B.; Baup, F.; Frappart, F.; Frison, P. L.; Gardelle, J.; Gruhier, C.; Jarlan, L.; Mangiarotti, S.; Sanou, B.; Tracol, Y.; Guichard, F.; Trichon, V.; Diarra, L.; Soumaré, A.; Koité, M.; Dembélé, F.; Lloyd, C.; Hanan, N. P.; Damesin, C.; Delon, C.; Serça, D.; Galy-Lacaux, C.; Seghieri, J.; Becerra, S.; Dia, H.; Gangneron, F.; Mazzega, P.

2009-08-01

SummaryThe Gourma site in Mali is one of the three instrumented meso-scale sites deployed in West-Africa as part of the African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Located both in the Sahelian zone sensu stricto, and in the Saharo-Sahelian transition zone, the Gourma meso-scale window is the northernmost site of the AMMA-CATCH observatory reached by the West African Monsoon. The experimental strategy includes deployment of a variety of instruments, from local to meso-scale, dedicated to monitoring and documentation of the major variables characterizing the climate forcing, and the spatio-temporal variability of surface processes and state variables such as vegetation mass, leaf area index (LAI), soil moisture and surface fluxes. This paper describes the Gourma site, its associated instrumental network and the research activities that have been carried out since 1984. In the AMMA project, emphasis is put on the relations between climate, vegetation and surface fluxes. However, the Gourma site is also important for development and validation of satellite products, mainly due to the existence of large and relatively homogeneous surfaces. The social dimension of the water resource uses and governance is also briefly analyzed, relying on field enquiry and interviews. The climate of the Gourma region is semi-arid, daytime air temperatures are always high and annual rainfall amounts exhibit strong inter-annual and seasonal variations. Measurements sites organized along a north-south transect reveal sharp gradients in surface albedo, net radiation, vegetation production, and distribution of plant functional types. However, at any point along the gradient, surface energy budget, soil moisture and vegetation growth contrast between two main types of soil surfaces and hydrologic systems. On the one hand, sandy soils with high water infiltration rates and limited run-off support almost continuous herbaceous vegetation with scattered woody plants. On the other hand, water infiltration is poor on shallow soils, and vegetation is sparse and discontinuous, with more concentrated run-off that ends in pools or low lands within structured endorheic watersheds. Land surface in the Gourma is characterized by rapid response to climate variability, strong intra-seasonal, seasonal and inter-annual variations in vegetation growth, soil moisture and energy balance. Despite the multi-decadal drought, which still persists, ponds and lakes have increased, the grass cover has largely recovered, and there are signs of increased tree cover at least in the low lands.

Regional modelling of nitrate leaching from Swiss organic and conventional cropping systems under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calitri, Francesca; Necpalova, Magdalena; Lee, Juhwan; Zaccone, Claudio; Spiess, Ernst; Herrera, Juan; Six, Johan

2016-04-01

Organic cropping systems have been promoted as a sustainable alternative to minimize the environmental impacts of conventional practices. Relatively little is known about the potential to reduce NO3-N leaching through the large-scale adoption of organic practices. Moreover, the potential to mitigate NO3-N leaching and thus the N pollution under future climate change through organic farming remain unknown and highly uncertain. Here, we compared regional NO3-N leaching from organic and conventional cropping systems in Switzerland using a terrestrial biogeochemical process-based model DayCent. The objectives of this study are 1) to calibrate and evaluate the model for NO3-N leaching measured under various management practices from three experiments at two sites in Switzerland; 2) to estimate regional NO3-N leaching patterns and their spatial uncertainty in conventional and organic cropping systems (with and without cover crops) for future climate change scenario A1B; 3) to explore the sensitivity of NO3-N leaching to changes in soil and climate variables; and 4) to assess the nitrogen use efficiency for conventional and organic cropping systems with and without cover crops under climate change. The data for model calibration/evaluation were derived from field experiments conducted in Liebefeld (canton Bern) and Eschikon (canton Zürich). These experiments evaluated effects of various cover crops and N fertilizer inputs on NO3-N leaching. The preliminary results suggest that the model was able to explain 50 to 83% of the inter-annual variability in the measured soil drainage (RMSE from 12.32 to 16.89 cm y-1). The annual NO3-N leaching was also simulated satisfactory (RMSE = 3.94 to 6.38 g N m-2 y-1), although the model had difficulty to reproduce the inter-annual variability in the NO3-N leaching losses correctly (R2 = 0.11 to 0.35). Future climate datasets (2010-2099) from the 10 regional climate models (RCM) were used in the simulations. Regional NO3-N leaching predictions for conventional cropping system with a three years rotation (silage maize, potatoes and winter wheat) in Zurich and Bern cantons varied from 6.30 to 16.89 g N m-2 y-1 over a 30-years period. Further simulations and analyses will follow to provide insights into understanding of driving variables and patterns of N losses by leaching in response to changes from conventional to organic cropping systems, and climate change.

Sahelian rangeland response to changes in rainfall over two decades in the Gourma region, Mali

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiernaux, Pierre; Mougin, Eric; Diarra, Lassine; Soumaguel, Nogmana; Lavenu, François; Tracol, Yann; Diawara, Mamadou

2009-08-01

SummaryTwenty-five rangeland sites were monitored over two decades (1984-2006) first to assess the impact of the 1983-1984 droughts on fodder resources, then to better understand ecosystem functioning and dynamics. Sites are sampled along the south-north bioclimatic gradient in Gourma (Mali), within three main edaphic situations: sandy, loamy-clay and shallow soils. In addition, three levels of grazing pressure where systematically sampled within sandy soils. Located at the northern edge of the area reached by the West African monsoon, the Gourma gradient has recorded extremes in inter-annual variations of rainfall and resulting variations in vegetation growth. Following rainfall variability, inter-annual variability of herbaceous yield increases as climate gets dryer with latitudes at least on the sandy soils sites. Local redistribution of rainfall explains the high patchiness of herbaceous vegetation, especially on shallow soils. Yet spatial heterogeneity of the vegetation does not buffer between year yield variability that increases with spatial heterogeneity. At short term, livestock grazing during the wet season affects plant growth and thus yield in direction and proportions that vary with the timing and intensity of grazing. In the longer term, grazing also impinges upon species composition in many ways. Hence, long histories of heavy grazing promote either long cycle annuals refused by livestock or else short cycle good quality feed species. Primary production is maintained or even increased in the case of refusal such as Sida cordifolia, and is lessened in the case of short cycle species such as Zornia glochidiata. These behaviours explain that the yield anomalies calculated for the rangelands on sandy soils relative to the yield of site less grazed under similar climate tend to be negative in northern Sahel where the scenario of short cycle species dominates, while yield anomalies are close to nil in centre Sahel and slightly positive in South Sahel where the refusal scenario is more frequent. Because grazing promotes short cycle species, grazed rangelands respond faster to droughts. Year to year changes in species composition are abrupt as expected from the transient soil seed stock. However, some decadal trends in species composition are identified, with a wave of pioneer species following the 1983-1984 droughts, and a more progressive diversification and return to typical Sahel flora from 1992 onwards.

The Carbon Cycle and Hurricanes in the United States between 1900 and 2011

PubMed Central

Dahal, Devendra; Liu, Shuguang; Oeding, Jennifer

2014-01-01

Hurricanes cause severe impacts on forest ecosystems in the United States. These events can substantially alter the carbon biogeochemical cycle at local to regional scales. We selected all tropical storms and more severe events that made U.S. landfall between 1900 and 2011 and used hurricane best track database, a meteorological model (HURRECON), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), U. S. Department of Agirculture Forest Service biomass dataset, and pre- and post-MODIS data to quantify individual event and annual biomass mortality. Our estimates show an average of 18.2 TgC/yr of live biomass mortality for 1900–2011 in the US with strong spatial and inter-annual variability. Results show Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused the highest aboveground biomass mortality with 59.5 TgC. Similarly 1954 had the highest annual mortality with 68.4 TgC attributed to landfalling hurricanes. The results presented are deemed useful to further investigate historical events, and the methods outlined are potentially beneficial to quantify biomass loss in future events. PMID:24903486

The carbon cycle and hurricanes in the United States between 1900 and 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dahal, Devendra; Liu, Shu-Guang; Oeding, Jennifer

2014-01-01

Hurricanes cause severe impacts on forest ecosystems in the United States. These events can substantially alter the carbon biogeochemical cycle at local to regional scales. We selected all tropical storms and more severe events that made U.S. landfall between 1900 and 2011 and used hurricane best track database, a meteorological model (HURRECON), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), U. S. Department of Agirculture Forest Service biomass dataset, and pre- and post-MODIS data to quantify individual event and annual biomass mortality. Our estimates show an average of 18.2 TgC/yr of live biomass mortality for 1900–2011 in the US with strong spatial and inter-annual variability. Results show Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused the highest aboveground biomass mortality with 59.5 TgC. Similarly 1954 had the highest annual mortality with 68.4 TgC attributed to landfalling hurricanes. The results presented are deemed useful to further investigate historical events, and the methods outlined are potentially beneficial to quantify biomass loss in future events.

Assessment of annual pollutant loads in combined sewers from continuous turbidity measurements: sensitivity to calibration data.

PubMed

Lacour, C; Joannis, C; Chebbo, G

2009-05-01

This article presents a methodology for assessing annual wet weather Suspended Solids (SS) and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) loads in combined sewers, along with the associated uncertainties from continuous turbidity measurements. The proposed method is applied to data from various urban catchments in the cities of Paris and Nantes. The focus here concerns the impact of the number of rain events sampled for calibration (i.e. through establishing linear SS/turbidity or COD/turbidity relationships) on the uncertainty of annual pollutant load assessments. Two calculation methods are investigated, both of which rely on Monte Carlo simulations: random assignment of event-specific calibration relationships to each individual rain event, and the use of an overall relationship built from the entire available data set. Since results indicate a fairly low inter-event variability for calibration relationship parameters, an accurate assessment of pollutant loads can be derived, even when fewer than 10 events are sampled for calibration purposes. For operational applications, these results suggest that turbidity could provide a more precise evaluation of pollutant loads at lower cost than typical sampling methods.

Evaluation of cloud fraction and its radiative effect simulated by IPCC AR4 global models against ARM surface observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Long, Charles N.; Wang, Hailong

2012-02-17

Cloud Fraction (CF) is the dominant modulator of radiative fluxes. In this study, we evaluate CF simulations in the IPCC AR4 GCMs against ARM ground measurements, with a focus on the vertical structure, total amount of cloud and its effect on cloud shortwave transmissivity, for both inter-model deviation and model-measurement discrepancy. Our intercomparisons of three CF or sky-cover related dataset reveal that the relative differences are usually less than 10% (5%) for multi-year monthly (annual) mean values, while daily differences are quite significant. The results also show that the model-observation and the inter-model deviations have a similar magnitude for themore » total CF (TCF) and the normalized cloud effect, and they are twice as large as the surface downward solar radiation and cloud transmissivity. This implies that the other cloud properties, such as cloud optical depth and height, have a similar magnitude of disparity to TCF among the GCMs, and suggests that a better agreement among the GCMs in solar radiative fluxes could be the result of compensating errors in either cloud vertical structure, cloud optical depth or cloud fraction. Similar deviation pattern between inter-model and model-measurement suggests that the climate models tend to generate larger bias against observations for those variables with larger inter-model deviation. The simulated TCF from IPCC AR4 GCMs are very scattered through all seasons over three ARM sites: Southern Great Plains (SGP), Manus, Papua New Guinea and North Slope of Alaska (NSA). The GCMs perform better at SGP than at Manus and NSA in simulating the seasonal variation and probability distribution of TCF; however, the TCF in these models is remarkably underpredicted and cloud transmissivity is less susceptible to the change of TCF than the observed at SGP. Much larger inter-model deviation and model bias are found over NSA than the other sites in estimating the TCF, cloud transmissivity and cloud-radiation interaction, suggesting that the Arctic region continues to challenge cloud simulations in climate models. Most of the GCMs tend to underpredict CF and fail to capture the seasonal variation of CF at middle and low levels in the tropics. The high altitude CF is much larger in the GCMs than the observation and the inter-model variability of CF also reaches maximum at high levels in the tropics. Most of the GCMs tend to underpredict CF by 50-150% relative to the measurement average at low and middle levels over SGP. While the GCMs generally capture the maximum CF in the boundary layer and vertical variability, the inter-model deviation is largest near surface over the Arctic. The internal variability of CF simulated in ensemble runs with the same model is very minimal.« less

Characterizing individual differences in functional connectivity using dual-regression and seed-based approaches.

PubMed

Smith, David V; Utevsky, Amanda V; Bland, Amy R; Clement, Nathan; Clithero, John A; Harsch, Anne E W; McKell Carter, R; Huettel, Scott A

2014-07-15

A central challenge for neuroscience lies in relating inter-individual variability to the functional properties of specific brain regions. Yet, considerable variability exists in the connectivity patterns between different brain areas, potentially producing reliable group differences. Using sex differences as a motivating example, we examined two separate resting-state datasets comprising a total of 188 human participants. Both datasets were decomposed into resting-state networks (RSNs) using a probabilistic spatial independent component analysis (ICA). We estimated voxel-wise functional connectivity with these networks using a dual-regression analysis, which characterizes the participant-level spatiotemporal dynamics of each network while controlling for (via multiple regression) the influence of other networks and sources of variability. We found that males and females exhibit distinct patterns of connectivity with multiple RSNs, including both visual and auditory networks and the right frontal-parietal network. These results replicated across both datasets and were not explained by differences in head motion, data quality, brain volume, cortisol levels, or testosterone levels. Importantly, we also demonstrate that dual-regression functional connectivity is better at detecting inter-individual variability than traditional seed-based functional connectivity approaches. Our findings characterize robust-yet frequently ignored-neural differences between males and females, pointing to the necessity of controlling for sex in neuroscience studies of individual differences. Moreover, our results highlight the importance of employing network-based models to study variability in functional connectivity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contributions of meteorology to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms: implications for future climate change.

PubMed

Zhang, Min; Duan, Hongtao; Shi, Xiaoli; Yu, Yang; Kong, Fanxiang

2012-02-01

Cyanobacterial blooms are often a result of eutrophication. Recently, however, their expansion has also been found to be associated with changes in climate. To elucidate the effects of climatic variables on the expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in Taihu, China, we analyzed the relationships between climatic variables and bloom events which were retrieved by satellite images. We then assessed the contribution of each climate variable to the phenology of blooms using multiple regression models. Our study demonstrates that retrieving ecological information from satellite images is meritorious for large-scale and long-term ecological research in freshwater ecosystems. Our results show that the phenological changes of blooms at an inter-annual scale are strongly linked to climate in Taihu during the past 23 yr. Cyanobacterial blooms occur earlier and last longer with the increase of temperature, sunshine hours, and global radiation and the decrease of wind speed. Furthermore, the duration increases when the daily averages of maximum, mean, and minimum temperature each exceed 20.3 °C, 16.7 °C, and 13.7 °C, respectively. Among these factors, sunshine hours and wind speed are the primary contributors to the onset of the blooms, explaining 84.6% of their variability over the past 23 yr. These factors are also good predictors of the variability in the duration of annual blooms and determined 58.9% of the variability in this parameter. Our results indicate that when nutrients are in sufficiently high quantities to sustain the formation of cyanobacterial blooms, climatic variables become crucial in predicting cyanobacterial bloom events. Climate changes should be considered when we evaluate how much the amount of nutrients should be reduced in Taihu for lake management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Skilful Marine Sclerochronological Network Based Reconstruction of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, D.; Hall, I. R.; Slater, S. M.; Scourse, J. D.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Halloran, P. R.; Garry, F. K.

2017-12-01

Spatial network analyses of precisely dated, and annually resolved, tree-ring proxy records have facilitated robust reconstructions of past atmospheric climate variability and the associated mechanisms and forcings that drive it. In contrast, a lack of similarly dated marine archives has constrained the use of such techniques in the marine realm, despite the potential for developing a more robust understanding of the role basin scale ocean dynamics play in the global climate system. Here we show that a spatial network of marine molluscan sclerochronological oxygen isotope (δ18Oshell) series spanning the North Atlantic region provides a skilful reconstruction of basin scale North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analyses demonstrate that the composite marine series (referred to as δ18Oproxy_PC1) is significantly sensitive to inter-annual variability in North Atlantic SSTs (R=-0.61 P<0.01) and surface air temperatures (SATs; R=-0.67, P<0.01) over the 20th century. Subpolar gyre (SPG) SSTs dominates variability in the δ18Oproxy_PC1 series at sub-centennial frequencies (R=-0.51, P<0.01). Comparison of the δ18Oproxy_PC1 series against variability in the strength of the European Slope Current and maximum North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation derived from numeric climate models (CMIP5), indicates that variability in the SPG region, associated with the strength of the surface currents of the North Atlantic, are playing a significant role in shaping the multi-decadal scale SST variability over the industrial era. These analyses demonstrate that spatial networks developed from sclerochronological archives can provide powerful baseline archives of past ocean variability that can facilitate the development of a quantitative understanding for the role the oceans play in the global climate systems and constraining uncertainties in numeric climate models.

Observations and modelling of shoreline and multiple sandbar behaviour on a high-energy meso-tidal beach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Splinter, Kristen D.; Gonzalez, Maria V. G.; Oltman-Shay, Joan; Rutten, Jantien; Holman, Robert

2018-05-01

This contribution describes 10 years of observed sandbar and shoreline cross-shore position variability at a meso-tidal, high energy, multiple sandbar beach. To examine relationships between the temporal variability in shoreline/sandbar position with offshore wave forcing, a simple equilibrium model is applied to these data. The analysis presented in this paper shows that the equilibrium model is skilled at predicting the alongshore-averaged, time-varying position of the shoreline (R = 0.82) and the outer sandbar position (R = 0.75), suggesting that these end members of the nearshore sediment system are most strongly influenced by offshore wave forcing in a predictable, equilibrium-forced manner. The middle and inner bars are hypothesized to act as sediment transport pathways between the shoreline and the outer bar. Prediction of these more transient features by an equilibrium model was less skilful. Model coefficients reveal that these two end members (outer bar and shoreline) in the sediment system act in opposite directions to changes in the annual offshore wave forcing. During high wave events, sediment is removed from the shoreline and deposited in the nearshore sediment system with simultaneous landward retreat of the shoreline and offshore migration of the outer sandbar. While both end member features have cycles at annual and inter-annual scales, their respective equilibrium response factor differs by almost a factor of 10, with the shoreline responding around an inter-annual mean (ϕ = 1000 days) and the outer bar responding around a seasonal mean (ϕ = 170 days). The model accurately predicts shoreline response to both mild (e.g. 2004/05, 2008/09) and extreme (e.g. 2005/06, 2009/10) winter storms, as well as their summer recovery. The more mobile and dynamic outer sandbar is well-modelled during typical winters. Summer onshore sandbar migration of the outer bar in 2005 and 2006 is under-predicted as the system transitioned between a triple (winter) and double (summer) sandbar system. The changing of the number of bars present in the system is something that this simple model cannot predict. Analysis of the data suggests that this multi-bar system adjusts its cross-shore seasonal movement when there is a significant change in the sediment supply to the system (e.g., nourishment projects, severe storms).

Analysis on inter-annual variability of CO2 exchange in Arctic tundra: a model-data approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López Blanco, E.; Lund, M.; Christensen, T. R.; Smallman, T. L.; Slevin, D.; Westergaard-Nielsen, A.; Tamstorf, M. P.; Williams, M.

2017-12-01

Arctic ecosystems are exposed to rapid changes triggered by the climate variability, thus there is a growing concern about how the carbon (C) exchange balance will respond to climate change. There is a lack of knowledge about the mechanisms that drive the interactions between photosynthesis and ecological respiration with changes in C stocks in the Arctic tundra across full annual cycles. The reduction of uncertainties can be addressed through process-based modelling efforts. Here, we report the independent predictions of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) calculated from the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) model across eight years. The model products are validated with observational data obtained from the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program in West Greenland tundra (64° N). Overall, the model results explain 71%, 73% and 51% of the variance in NEE, GPP and Reco respectively using data on meteorology and local vegetation and soil structure. The estimated leaf area index (LAI) is able to explain 80% of the plant greenness variation, which was used as a plant phenology proxy. The full annual cumulated NEE during the 2008-2015 period was -0.13 g C m-2 on average (range -30.6 to 34.1 g C m-2), while GPP was -214.6 g C m-2 (-126.2 to -332.8 g C m-2) and Reco was 214.4 g C m-2 (213.9 to 302.2 g C m-2). We found that the model supports the main finding from our previous analysis on flux responses to meteorological variations and biological disturbance. Here, large inter-annual variations in GPP and Reco are also compensatory, and so NEE remains stable across climatically diverse snow-free seasons. Further, we note evidence that leaf maintenance and root growth respiration are highly correlated with GPP (R2 = 0.92 and 0.83, p < 0.001), concluding that these relations likely drive the insensitivity of NEE. Interestingly, the model quantifies the contribution of the larvae outbreak occurred in 2011 in about 27%, but also a decrease of 10% in the carbon use efficiency. With this study, we demonstrate the importance of incorporate wintertime periods allowing a more comprehensive understanding of complete C budgets and the delayed effect of wintertime conditions on the C fluxes.

Routine Mapping of the Snow Depth Distribution on Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, S. L.; Newman, T.; Richter-Menge, J.; Dattler, M.; Paden, J. D.; Yan, S.; Li, J.; Leuschen, C.

2016-12-01

The annual growth and retreat of the polar sea ice cover is influenced by the seasonal accumulation, redistribution and melt of snow on sea ice. Due to its high albedo and low thermal conductivity, snow is also a controlling parameter in the mass and energy budgets of the polar climate system. Under a changing climate scenario it is critical to obtain reliable and routine measurements of snow depth, across basin scales, and long time periods, so as to understand regional, seasonal and inter-annual variability, and the subsequent impacts on the sea ice cover itself. Moreover the snow depth distribution remains a significant source of uncertainty in the derivation of sea ice thickness from remote sensing measurements, as well as in numerical model predictions of future climate state. Radar altimeter systems flown onboard NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) mission now provide annual measurements of snow across both the Arctic and Southern Ocean ice packs. We describe recent advances in the processing techniques used to interpret airborne radar waveforms and produce accurate and robust snow depth results. As a consequence of instrument effects and data quality issues associated with the initial release of the OIB airborne radar data, the entire data set was reprocessed to remove coherent noise and sidelobes in the radar echograms. These reprocessed data were released to the community in early 2016, and are available for improved derivation of snow depth. Here, using the reprocessed data, we present the results of seven years of radar measurements collected over Arctic sea ice at the end of winter, just prior to melt. Our analysis provides the snow depth distribution on both seasonal and multi-year sea ice. We present the inter-annual variability in snow depth for both the Central Arctic and the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas. We validate our results via comparison with temporally and spatially coincident in situ measurements gathered during many of the OIB surveys. The results will influence future sensor suite development for sea ice studies, and they provide a new metric for comparison with other sea ice observations. Integrating these novel snow depth observations with modeling studies will help inform model development, and advance our predictive capabilities to help better understand how sea ice is responding to a changing climate.

Interpretation of tropospheric ozone variability in data with different vertical and temporal resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Disterhoft, P.; Johnson, B. J.; Rieder, H. E.; Manney, G. L.; Daffer, W.

2012-12-01

This work attributes tropospheric ozone variability derived from the ground-based Dobson and Brewer Umkehr measurements and from ozone sonde data to local sources and transport. It assesses capability and limitations in both types of measurements that are often used to analyze long- and short-term variability in tropospheric ozone time series. We will address the natural and instrument-related contribution to the variability found in both Umkehr and sonde data. Validation of Umkehr methods is often done by intercomparisons against independent ozone measuring techniques such as ozone sounding. We will use ozone-sounding in its original and AK-smoothed vertical profiles for assessment of ozone inter-annual variability over Boulder, CO. We will discuss possible reasons for differences between different ozone measuring techniques and its effects on the derived ozone trends. Next to standard evaluation techniques we utilize a STL-decomposition method to address temporal variability and trends in the Boulder Umkehr data. Further, we apply a statistical modeling approach to the ozone data set to attribute ozone variability to individual driving forces associated with natural and anthropogenic causes. To this aim we follow earlier work applying a backward selection method (i.e., a stepwise elimination procedure out of a set of total 44 explanatory variables) to determine those explanatory variables which contribute most significantly to the observed variability. We will present also some results associated with completeness (sampling rate) of the existing data sets. We will also use MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) re-analysis results selected for Boulder location as a transfer function in understanding of the effects that the temporal sampling and vertical resolution bring into trend and ozone variability analysis. Analyzing intra-annual variability in ozone measurements over Boulder, CO, in relation to the upper tropospheric subtropical and polar jets, we will address the stratospheric and tropospheric intrusions in the middle latitude troposphere ozone field.

Inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiao; Ding, Ruiqiang; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhong, Quanjia; Li, Baosheng; Li, Jianping

2018-05-01

The significant inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has been investigated using the signal-to-noise ratio method. The relatively low potential predictability appears from the early 1950s through the late 1970s and during the early 2000s, whereas the potential predictability is relatively high from the early 1980s through the late 1990s. The inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM can be attributed mainly to variations in the external signal of the EASM. The latter is mostly caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) inter-decadal variability. As a major external signal of the EASM, the ENSO inter-decadal variability experiences phase transitions from negative to positive phases in the late 1970s, and to negative phases in the late 1990s. Additionally, ENSO is generally strong (weak) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. The strong ENSO is expected to have a greater influence on the EASM, and vice versa. As a result, the potential predictability of the EASM tends to be high (low) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. Furthermore, a suite of Pacific Pacemaker experiments suggests that the ENSO inter-decadal variability may be a key pacemaker of the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM.

Impact of inter-seasonal solar variability on the association of lower troposphere and cold point tropopause in the tropics: Observations using RO data from COSMIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, V.; Dhaka, S. K.; Ho, Shu-Peng; Singh, Narendra; Singh, Vir; Reddy, K. K.; Chun, H.-Y.

2017-12-01

Association of lower tropospheric variations with the cold point tropopause (CPT) is examined on inter-seasonal basis over the tropical region (30°N-30°S) during 2007-2010 using COSMIC/FORMOST-3 Radio Occultation (RO) data. Temperature analyses for this association are shown over different regions of the globe having contrast topography namely over Western Pacific sector, Indian sector, and African sector. Correlation coefficient (r), taken as a measurement of association, show specific longitudinal differences between the lower troposphere (from 1 km to 5 km height) and the CPT. The northern and southern hemispheres show contrast coupling of temperature variation between lower tropospheric region and the CPT. Land and ocean effects are found to contribute in a different way to the correlation coefficient. Analyses show symmetrical structure of 'r' on both sides of the equator over the African region, as data include mostly land region on both side of equator. Data represent positive correlation (r 0.5) over 15°-20° latitudes on either side of the equator over the African region, suggesting strong hold of the inter-seasonal variation of solar diabatic heating influence over the tropic of Cancer and tropic of Capricorn. On the other hand, there is a contrast behaviour over the Indian region, 'r' is nearly negative ( - 1.0) each year in the southern hemisphere (SH) and positive ( 0.4) in the northern hemisphere (NH) with a maxima near tropic of Cancer. Western Pacific region is found to display a linear increase in 'r' from negative ( - 1.0) in SH to positive ( 0.8) in NH. In general, 'r' (positive) maximizes over the land region around 15°-20° latitudes, suggesting a control of in phase inter-seasonal solar heating on the coupling of boundary layer/lower troposphere and CPT region, whereas it turns negative over water body. Analyses suggest that variabilities in CPT over different regions of globe show significant inter-seasonal association with the lower troposphere. Thus CPT variabilities are not only governed by QBO, ENSO, gravity waves and Kelvin wave system as reported in earlier studies but also considerably affected by inter-seasonal changes taking place in the lower troposphere.

Circulation effect: response of precipitation δ18O to the ENSO cycle in monsoon regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Ming

2014-02-01

Inter-annual variation in the ratio of 18O to 16O of precipitation (δ18Op) in the monsoon regions of China (MRC, area approximately east of 100°E) has not yet been fully analyzed. Based on an analysis of the relationships between the time series of amount-weighted mean annual δ18O in precipitation (δ18Ow) and meteorological variables such as temperature, precipitation as well as atmospheric/oceanic circulation indices, it is recognized that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle appears to be the dominant control on the inter-annual variation in δ18Op in the MRC. Further analysis shows that the trade wind plays a role in governing δ18Ow through affecting the intensity of the different summer monsoon circulations which are closely linked to the weakening (weaker than normal) and strengthening (stronger than normal) of the trade wind and gives the δ18Ow different values at or over inter-annual timescales. The southwest monsoon (SWM) drives long-distance transport of water vapor from Indian Ocean to the MRC, and along this pathway increasing rainout leads to more negative δ18Ow via Rayleigh distillation processes. In contrast, the southeast monsoon (SEM), which is consistent with the changes in the strength of the West Pacific subtropical high, drives short-distance water vapor transport from the West Pacific Ocean to the MRC and leads to less negative δ18Ow. Therefore, the δ18Ow value directly reflects the differences in influence between the SWM, which is strong when the SE trade wind is strong, and the SEM, which is strong when the SE trade wind is weak. In addition, the South China Sea Monsoon also transports local water vapor as well as plays a role in achieving the synchronization between the δ18Ow and ENSO. The author thus terms the δ18Op rhythm in the MRC the "circulation effect". In turn, the δ18Op variation in the MRC has the potential to provide information on atmospheric circulation and the signal of δ18Op recorded in natural archives can then be used to deduce a long-term behavior of the tropical climate system.

An assessment of temporal effect on extreme rainfall estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Samiran; Zhu, Dehua; Chi-Han, Cheng

2018-06-01

This study assesses the temporal behaviour in terms of inter-decadal variability of extreme daily rainfall of stated return period relevant for hydrologic risk analysis using a novel regional parametric approach. The assessment is carried out based on annual maximum daily rainfall series of 180 meteorological stations of Yangtze River Basin over a 50-year period (1961-2010). The outcomes of the analysis reveal that while there were effects present indicating higher quantile values when estimated from data of the 1990s, it is found not to be noteworthy to exclude the data of any decade from the extreme rainfall estimation process for hydrologic risk analysis.

A multi-segment foot model based on anatomically registered technical coordinate systems: method repeatability in pediatric feet.

PubMed

Saraswat, Prabhav; MacWilliams, Bruce A; Davis, Roy B

2012-04-01

Several multi-segment foot models to measure the motion of intrinsic joints of the foot have been reported. Use of these models in clinical decision making is limited due to lack of rigorous validation including inter-clinician, and inter-lab variability measures. A model with thoroughly quantified variability may significantly improve the confidence in the results of such foot models. This study proposes a new clinical foot model with the underlying strategy of using separate anatomic and technical marker configurations and coordinate systems. Anatomical landmark and coordinate system identification is determined during a static subject calibration. Technical markers are located at optimal sites for dynamic motion tracking. The model is comprised of the tibia and three foot segments (hindfoot, forefoot and hallux) and inter-segmental joint angles are computed in three planes. Data collection was carried out on pediatric subjects at two sites (Site 1: n=10 subjects by two clinicians and Site 2: five subjects by one clinician). A plaster mold method was used to quantify static intra-clinician and inter-clinician marker placement variability by allowing direct comparisons of marker data between sessions for each subject. Intra-clinician and inter-clinician joint angle variability were less than 4°. For dynamic walking kinematics, intra-clinician, inter-clinician and inter-laboratory variability were less than 6° for the ankle and forefoot, but slightly higher for the hallux. Inter-trial variability accounted for 2-4° of the total dynamic variability. Results indicate the proposed foot model reduces the effects of marker placement variability on computed foot kinematics during walking compared to similar measures in previous models. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Aiguo; Bloecker, Christine E.

2018-02-01

It is known that internal climate variability (ICV) can influence trends seen in observations and individual model simulations over a period of decades. This makes it difficult to quantify the forced response to external forcing. Here we analyze two large ensembles of simulations from 1950 to 2100 by two fully-coupled climate models, namely the CESM1 and CanESM2, to quantify ICV's influences on estimated trends in annual surface air temperature (Tas) and precipitation (P) over different time periods. Results show that the observed trends since 1979 in global-mean Tas and P are within the spread of the CESM1-simulated trends while the CanESM2 overestimates the historical changes, likely due to its deficiencies in simulating historical non-CO2 forcing. Both models show considerable spreads in the Tas and P trends among the individual simulations, and the spreads decrease rapidly as the record length increases to about 40 (50) years for global-mean Tas (P). Because of ICV, local and regional P trends may remain statistically insignificant and differ greatly among individual model simulations over most of the globe until the later part of the twenty-first century even under a high emissions scenario, while local Tas trends since 1979 are already statistically significant over many low-latitude regions and are projected to become significant over most of the globe by the 2030s. The largest influences of ICV come from the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and polar sea ice. In contrast to the realization-dependent ICV, the forced Tas response to external forcing has a temporal evolution that is similar over most of the globe (except its amplitude). For annual precipitation, however, the temporal evolution of the forced response is similar (opposite) to that of Tas over many mid-high latitude areas and the ITCZ (subtropical regions), but close to zero over the transition zones between the regions with positive and negative trends. The ICV in the transient climate change simulations is slightly larger than that in the control run for P (and other related variables such as water vapor), but similar for Tas. Thus, the ICV for P from a control run may need to be scaled up in detection and attribution analyses.

SWMPrats.net: A Web-Based Resource for Exploring SWMP ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

SWMPrats.net is a web-based resource that provides accessible approaches to using SWMP data. The website includes a user forum with instructional ‘Plots of the Month’; links to workshop content; and a description of the SWMPr data analysis package for R. Interactive “widgets” allow users to skip the boring parts of data analysis and get right to the fun: visualization and exploration! There are three widgets, each performing a different analysis: system-wide overviews, detailed temporal summaries of a single variable at a single site, and inter-comparisons between sites or variables through time. Users can visually explore system-wide trends in data using the Trends Map widget. For a more detailed analysis, users can create monthly and annual graphs of single variables and locations in the Summary Plot widget. Lastly, users can compare two variables or NERRS locations through time using the Aggregation widget. For all widgets, users can adjust the time period of interest. Plots and tables can also be downloaded for use in outreach, education, or further analysis. The tools and forums are meant to build a community of practice to move SWMP data analysis forward. All widgets will be demonstrated live at the poster session. This abstract is for a poster presentation at the 2016 annual meeting for the National Estuarine Research Reserve System, Nov. 13-18. We will describe our online web resources for the analysis and interpretation of monitoring da

Satellite passive microwaves for monitoring deforestation and drought-induced carbon losses in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, M.; Wigneron, J. P.; Chave, J.; Tagesson, T.; Penuelas, J.; Ciais, P.; Rasmussen, K.; Tian, F.; Mbow, C.; Al-Yaari, A.; Rodriguez-Fernandez, N.; Zhang, W.; Kerr, Y. H.; Tucker, C. J.; Mialon, A.; Verger, A.; Fensholt, R.

2017-12-01

The African continent is facing one of the driest periods in the past three decades and continuing deforestation. These disturbances threaten vegetation carbon (C) stocks and highlight the need for an operational tool for monitoring carbon stock dynamics. Knowledge of the amount, distribution, and turnover of carbon in African vegetation is crucial for understanding the effects of human pressure and climate change, but the shortcomings of optical and radar satellite products and the lack of systematic field inventories have led to considerable uncertainty in documenting patterns and dynamics of carbon stocks, in particular for drylands. Static carbon maps have been developed, but the temporal dynamics of carbon stocks cannot be derived from the benchmark maps, impeding timely, repeated, and reliable carbon assessments. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission launched in 2009 was the first passive microwave-based satellite system operating at L-band (1.4 GHz) frequency. The low frequencies allow the satellite to sense deep within the canopy layer with less influence by the green non-woody plant components. The vegetation optical depth (VOD) derived from SMOS, henceforth L-VOD, is thus less sensitive to saturation effects, marking an important step forward in the monitoring of carbon as a natural resource. In this study, we apply for the first time L-VOD to quantify the inter-annual dynamics of aboveground carbon stocks for the period 2010-2016. We use this new technique to document patterns of carbon gains and losses in sub-Saharan Africa with a focus of dryland response to recent dry years. Results show that drylands lost carbon at a rate of -0.06 Pg C y-1 associated with drying trends, while humid areas lost only -0.02 Pg C y-1. These trends reflect a high inter-annual variability with a very wet (2011) and a very dry year (2016) associated with carbon gains and losses respectively. This study demonstrates, first, the operational applicability of L-VOD to monitor the dynamics of carbon loss and gain due to climate variations and deforestation, and second, the importance of the highly dynamic and drought prone carbon pool of dryland savannahs for the global carbon balance, despite the relatively low carbon stock per unit area.

From Hills to Holes: How Climate Change and Mining are Altering Runoff Processes in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, S. K.

2015-12-01

Canadian environments are under considerable pressure from both climate and land-use change. While warming temperatures are widespread and amplified in the north, surface mining has resulted in large-scale landscape disturbance. How these changes affect catchment response is profound, fundamentally altering the cycling and delivery of water and geochemicals to the drainage network. In permafrost-underlain environments, coupled mass and energy processes control runoff response, and as ground thaw increases, new subsurface pathways become accessible while changing overall catchment storage. With surface mining, watersheds are altered such that they bare little resemblance to what existed prior to mining. In this presentation, data will be presented from long-term experiments exploring the impact of climate and mining on runoff processes in cold catchments using stable isotopes of water and associated hydrometric measurements. In southern Yukon, results from the Wolf Creek Research Basin highlights the influence of surface energy balances on controlling the timing and magnitude of flow response, with inter-annual variability largely driven by how atmospheric forcing interacts with permafrost-underlain areas of the catchment. In mountainous areas of southern British Columbia, surface mining reconfigures landscapes as valleys are filled with waste-rock. Mine-influenced catchments exhibit attenuated flows with delays in spring freshet and a more muted to precipitation. Stable isotopes in stream water suggests that both waste-rock and reference catchments are well mixed, however reference catchments are more responsive to enrichment and depletion events and that mine-influenced catchments had a heavier isotope signature than reference watersheds, suggesting enhanced influence of rainfall on recharge. In both cases, snow storage and release exerts considerable control on streamflow responses, and future changes in streamflow regimes will reflect both a changes in the snow regime and inherent catchment storage properties that are dynamic with time.

Spatio-temporal dynamics in phytobenthos structural properties reveal insights into agricultural catchment dynamics and nutrient fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reaney, S. M.; Snell, M. A.; Barker, P. A.; Aftab, A.; Barber, N. J.; Benskin, C.; Burke, S.; Cleasby, W.; Haygarth, P.; Jonczyk, J. C.; Owen, G. J.; Perks, M. T.; Quinn, P. F.; Surridge, B.

2016-12-01

Low order streams are spatially extensive, temporally dynamic, systems within the agricultural landscape. This dynamism extends to the aquatic communities within these streams, including the phytobentos, which demonstrates considerable resilience to diffuse anthropogenic nutrient pressures and changing climate dynamics. The phytobenthos community can substantially contribute to the food web, in particular diatoms, which dominate photo-autotrophic assemblages in low order streams. Diatoms are widely used in ecological monitoring because of their high sensitivity to environmental condition, but knowledge is limited on the ecological effects of winter disturbances and variance introduced by multiple and interacting pressures (N, P, sediment), introducing bias in understanding temporal dynamics in benthic diatom communities. Using the environmental time series data from long term monitoring within the River Eden Demonstration Test Catchment programme, we assess the impact of multiple hydro-chemical stressors on phytobenthic community resilience, and synthesize the impact of an extreme winter event. Monthly data from diatom communities collected in the Eden DTC from March 2011 to present show that river flow, strongly coupled to precipitation, is a key driver of these communities. Discharge has a direct effect on communities through scouring, but is also tightly correlated to nutrient delivery, such that 80% of the annual TP load arrives in 10% of the time. Trophic Diatom Index (TDI) values demonstrated considerable resilience by the stability of inter-monthly TDI scores over 5 seasonal cycles against the characterised highly variable hydrological regime. This research demonstrates that well characterised winter disturbances are critical to understanding drivers of aquatic dynamics. This has implications for catchment diffuse pollution policy, farm management and economics, given the climate projections of increases in frequency and intensity of extreme winter events, which may alter instream nutrient fluxes.

Estimating maize production in Kenya using NDVI: Some statistical considerations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, J.E.; Rowland, James; Nadeau , A.

1998-01-01

A regression model approach using a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has the potential for estimating crop production in East Africa. However, before production estimation can become a reality, the underlying model assumptions and statistical nature of the sample data (NDVI and crop production) must be examined rigorously. Annual maize production statistics from 1982-90 for 36 agricultural districts within Kenya were used as the dependent variable; median area NDVI (independent variable) values from each agricultural district and year were extracted from the annual maximum NDVI data set. The input data and the statistical association of NDVI with maize production for Kenya were tested systematically for the following items: (1) homogeneity of the data when pooling the sample, (2) gross data errors and influence points, (3) serial (time) correlation, (4) spatial autocorrelation and (5) stability of the regression coefficients. The results of using a simple regression model with NDVI as the only independent variable are encouraging (r 0.75, p 0.05) and illustrate that NDVI can be a responsive indicator of maize production, especially in areas of high NDVI spatial variability, which coincide with areas of production variability in Kenya.

The Influence of Organized Physical Activity (including Gymnastics) on Young Adult Skeletal Traits: Is Maturity Phase Important?

PubMed Central

Bernardoni, Brittney; Scerpella, Tamara A.; Rosenbaum, Paula F.; Kanaley, Jill A.; Raab, Lindsay N.; Li, Quefeng; Wang, Sijian; Dowthwaite, Jodi N.

2015-01-01

We prospectively evaluated adolescent organized physical activity (PA) as a factor in adult female bone traits. Annual DXA scans accompanied semi-annual records of anthropometry, maturity and PA for 42 participants in this preliminary analysis (criteria: appropriately timed DXA scans at ~1 year pre-menarche [predictor] and ~5 years post-menarche [dependent variable]). Regression analysis evaluated total adolescent inter-scan PA and PA over 3 maturity sub-phases as predictors of young adult bone outcomes: 1) bone mineral content (BMC), geometry and strength indices at non-dominant distal radius and femoral neck; 2) sub-head BMC; 3) lumbar spine BMC. Analyses accounted for baseline gynecological age (years pre- or post-menarche), baseline bone status, adult body size and inter-scan body size change. Gymnastics training was evaluated as a potentially independent predictor, but did not improve models for any outcomes (p<0.07). Pre-menarcheal bone traits were strong predictors of most adult outcomes (semi-partial r2 = 0.21-0.59, p≤0.001). Adult 1/3 radius and sub-head BMC were predicted by both total PA and PA 1-3 years post-menarche (p<0.03). PA 3-5 years post-menarche predicted femoral narrow neck width, endosteal diameter and buckling ratio (p<0.05). Thus, participation in organized physical activity programs throughout middle and high school may reduce lifetime fracture risk in females. PMID:25386845

Phase dependence of transport-aperture coordination variability reveals control strategy of reach-to-grasp movements.

PubMed

Rand, Miya K; Shimansky, Y P; Hossain, Abul B M I; Stelmach, George E

2010-11-01

Based on an assumption of movement control optimality in reach-to-grasp movements, we have recently developed a mathematical model of transport-aperture coordination (TAC), according to which the hand-target distance is a function of hand velocity and acceleration, aperture magnitude, and aperture velocity and acceleration (Rand et al. in Exp Brain Res 188:263-274, 2008). Reach-to-grasp movements were performed by young adults under four different reaching speeds and two different transport distances. The residual error magnitude of fitting the above model to data across different trials and subjects was minimal for the aperture-closure phase, but relatively much greater for the aperture-opening phase, indicating considerable difference in TAC variability between those phases. This study's goal is to identify the main reasons for that difference and obtain insights into the control strategy of reach-to-grasp movements. TAC variability within the aperture-opening phase of a single trial was found minimal, indicating that TAC variability between trials was not due to execution noise, but rather a result of inter-trial and inter-subject variability of motor plan. At the same time, the dependence of the extent of trial-to-trial variability of TAC in that phase on the speed of hand transport was sharply inconsistent with the concept of speed-accuracy trade-off: the lower the speed, the larger the variability. Conversely, the dependence of the extent of TAC variability in the aperture-closure phase on hand transport speed was consistent with that concept. Taking into account recent evidence that the cost of neural information processing is substantial for movement planning, the dependence of TAC variability in the aperture-opening phase on task performance conditions suggests that it is not the movement time that the CNS saves in that phase, but the cost of neuro-computational resources and metabolic energy required for TAC regulation in that phase. Thus, the CNS performs a trade-off between that cost and TAC regulation accuracy. It is further discussed that such trade-off is possible because, due to a special control law that governs optimal switching from aperture opening to aperture closure, the inter-trial variability of the end of aperture opening does not affect the high accuracy of TAC regulation in the subsequent aperture-closure phase.