Patients' preferences for different corticosteroid vehicles are highly variable.

PubMed

Felix, Kayla; Unrue, Emily; Inyang, Meyene; Cardwell, Leah A; Oussedik, Elias; Richardson, Irma; Feldman, Steven R

2018-05-17

Topical corticosteroids, available in an array of vehicles are used to control a variety of inflammatory skin diseases. Patients' preferences for different vehicles may affect their willingness to use treatment. We assess corticosteroid vehicle preference and potential impact of topical characteristics on adherence and quality of life in patients with psoriasis. Subjects with psoriasis were recruited from Wake Forest University Dermatology Clinic. Subjects sampled desoximetasone 0.25% spray, betamethasone valerate 0.1% cream, triamcinolone acetonide 0.1% ointment, fluocinonide 0.05% gel, betamethasone valerate 0.1% lotion, clobetasol propionate 0.05% foam, and fluocinonide 0.05% solution in a predetermined randomized order. Subjects completed a Vehicle Preference Measure, Determinants of Adherence Measure and a Determinants of Quality of Life Measure. Patients preferences for the various products were highly variable. Regarding determinants of adherence, patients' perception of absorption of the medication was ranked as 'quite important/extremely important' by 85% of total subjects. A majority of patients rated medication side effects as 'quite important/extremely important' when asked to consider topical characteristics' effect on quality of life. There was wide variation in patient preference for topical medication vehicles used for treating psoriasis. Several vehicle characteristics were considered important to adherence. Given the marked variation in vehicle preference, topical treatment should be individualized according to patients' preferences.

Risk-based water resources planning: Coupling water allocation and water quality management under extreme droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortazavi-Naeini, M.; Bussi, G.; Hall, J. W.; Whitehead, P. G.

2016-12-01

The main aim of water companies is to have a reliable and safe water supply system. To fulfil their duty the water companies have to consider both water quality and quantity issues and challenges. Climate change and population growth will have an impact on water resources both in terms of available water and river water quality. Traditionally, a distinct separation between water quality and abstraction has existed. However, water quality can be a bottleneck in a system since water treatment works can only treat water if it meets certain standards. For instance, high turbidity and large phytoplankton content can increase sharply the cost of treatment or even make river water unfit for human consumption purposes. It is vital for water companies to be able to characterise the quantity and quality of water under extreme weather events and to consider the occurrence of eventual periods when water abstraction has to cease due to water quality constraints. This will give them opportunity to decide on water resource planning and potential changes to reduce the system failure risk. We present a risk-based approach for incorporating extreme events, based on future climate change scenarios from a large ensemble of climate model realisations, into integrated water resources model through combined use of water allocation (WATHNET) and water quality (INCA) models. The annual frequency of imposed restrictions on demand is considered as measure of reliability. We tested our approach on Thames region, in the UK, with 100 extreme events. The results show increase in frequency of imposed restrictions when water quality constraints were considered. This indicates importance of considering water quality issues in drought management plans.

NEIGHBORHOODS AND COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT: NO MICROBE IS AN ISLAND

EPA Science Inventory

The most important thing which must be understood about microorganisms in their environments is that no microbe exists by itself. We should consider that in the environment no microbe is an island existing independently. There are only a few, extremely rare, instances when a sing...

Monte Carlo Simulation of Effective Coordination Mechanisms for e-Commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakas, D. P.; Vlachos, D. S.; Simos, T. E.

2008-11-01

Making decisions in a dynamic environment is considered extremely important in today's market. Decision trees which can be used to model these systems, are not easily constructed and solved, especially in the case of infinite sets of consequences (for example, consider the case where only the mean and the variance of an outcome is known). In this work, discrete approximation and Monte Carlo techniques are used to overcome the aforementioned difficulties.

Examining personal values in extreme environment contexts: Revisiting the question of generalizability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N.; Sandal, G. M.; Leon, G. R.; Kjærgaard, A.

2017-08-01

Land-based extreme environments (e.g. polar expeditions, Antarctic research stations, confinement chambers) have often been used as analog settings for spaceflight. These settings share similarities with the conditions experienced during space missions, including confinement, isolation and limited possibilities for evacuation. To determine the utility of analog settings for understanding human spaceflight, researchers have examined the extent to which the individual characteristics (e.g., personality) of people operating in extreme environments can be generalized across contexts (Sandal, 2000) [1]. Building on previous work, and utilising new and pre-existing data, the present study examined the extent to which personal value motives could be generalized across extreme environments. Four populations were assessed; mountaineers (N =59), military personnel (N = 25), Antarctic over-winterers (N = 21) and Mars simulation participants (N = 12). All participants completed the Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ; Schwartz; 2) capturing information on 10 personal values. Rank scores suggest that all groups identified Self-direction, Stimulation, Universalism and Benevolence as important values and acknowledged Power and Tradition as being low priorities. Results from difference testing suggest the extreme environment groups were most comparable on Self-direction, Stimulation, Benevolence, Tradition and Security. There were significant between-group differences on five of the ten values. Overall, findings pinpointed specific values that may be important for functioning in challenging environments. However, the differences that emerged on certain values highlight the importance of considering the specific population when comparing results across extreme settings. We recommend that further research examine the impact of personal value motives on indicators of adjustment, group working, and performance. Information from such studies could then be used to aid selection and training processes for personnel operating in extreme settings, and in space.

Hypothalamic obesity after treatment for craniopharyngioma: the importance of the home environment.

PubMed

Meijneke, Ruud W H; Schouten-van Meeteren, Antoinette Y N; de Boer, Nienke Y; van Zundert, Suzanne; van Trotsenburg, Paul A S; Stoelinga, Femke; van Santen, Hanneke M

2015-01-01

Hypothalamic obesity after treatment for craniopharyngioma is a well-recognized, severe problem. Treatment of hypothalamic obesity is difficult and often frustrating for the patient, the parents and the professional care-giver. Because hypothalamic obesity is caused by an underlying medical disorder, it is often assumed that regular diet and exercise are not beneficial to reduce the extraordinarily high body mass index, and in fact, lifestyle interventions have been shown to be insufficient in case of extreme hypothalamic obesity. Nevertheless, it is important to realize that also in this situation, informal care delivered by the family and appropriate parenting styles are required to minimize the obesity problem. We present a case in which weight gain in the home situation was considered unstoppable, and a very early mortality due to complications of the severe increasing obesity was considered inevitable. A permissive approach toward food intake became leading with rapid weight increase since a restrictive lifestyle was considered a senseless burden for the child. By admission to our hospital for a longer period of time, weight reduction was realized, and the merely permissive approach could be changed into active purposeful care by adequate information, instruction, guidance and encouragement of the affected child and her parents. This case illustrates that, although this type of obesity has a pathological origin, parental and environmental influences remain of extreme importance.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE PAGES

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; ...

2018-04-02

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Serratia marcescens meningitis following spinal anaesthesia and arthroscopy.

PubMed

Hadzic, Amir; Koluder-Cimic, Nada; Hadzovic-Cengic, Meliha; Gojak, Refet; Gavrankapetanovic, Ismet; Becirbegovic, Semin

2012-01-01

We present case of nosocomial bacterial meningitis, caused by Serratia marcescens (ESBL), occurred following spinal anaesthesia. Although very rare bacterial meningitis is serious complication of spinal anaesthesia and early diagnosis as well as effective treatment is extremely important. Previously healthy individual, admitted to Orthopaedic Department for routine arthroscopy, approximately within 24 hours after operation was performed complained of headache and fever. Infectious Diseases physician was consulted, lumbar puncture was performed and purulent meningitis was confirmed. Cerebrospinal fluid and blood cultures of patient confirmed Serratia marcescens (ESBL), resistant pathogen and important nosocomial agent. Patient was successfully treated. Cases of spinal meningitis caused by Serratia marcescens are rare. Local resistance pattern is important and should be always considered when starting therapy. Infection control team was appointed because of similar case of meningitis one month before in the same Department, and after investigation discovered Serratia in anaesthetic vial used in procedures. New measures and recommendations regarding infection control were implemented at Orthopaedic Department. Meningitis as a complication should always be considered as a possible differential diagnosis with patients after spinal anaesthesia complaining on headache and fever. Early diagnosis and early treatment is extremely important. Knowledge and practice of infection control measures is mandatory and should be always emphasized to performing staff.

Storms or cold fronts? What is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

2015-05-01

On Friday, 7 March 2009, a 200 m-long section of the tourist pier in Puerto Colombia collapsed under the impact of the waves generated by a cold front in the area. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms on extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean to determine the degree of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed and the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the wave's height; therefore, it is necessary to definitively know the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. Using Gumbel's extreme value methodology, the significant height values for the study area were calculated. The methodology was evaluated using data from the re-analysis of the spectral NOAA Wavewatch III (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombia Caribbean coast (continental and insular) of the last 15 years. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area formed by Baja Guajira, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena, the strong influence of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. On the other hand, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast, from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá, even though extreme waves are lower than in the previous regions, extreme waves are dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to its geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than the extreme waves associated with hurricane season. These results are of great importance when evaluating the threat of extreme waves in the coastal and port infrastructure, for purposes of the design of new constructions, and in the coastal flood processes due to run-up because, according to the site of interest in the coast, the forces that shape extreme waves are not the same.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts” (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Changes in the Occurrence and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, M.; Pancost, R. D.; Lunt, D. J.

2015-12-01

The study of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to episodes of global warmth in the geologic past is receiving increased attention, but knowledge of the occurrence of hydrological extremes remains limited. A range of geomorphological, microfossil and biomarker proxies indicate significant hydrological change accompanied the PETM hyperthermal at ~55.8 Ma, many of which have been interpreted to reflect changes to Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) or runoff. Recently, changes in the occurrence of intense, episodic precipitation has been suggested at some sites, but it is currently unknown whether such regions were particularly susceptible to extremes, or whether proxies from other regions require further interpretation. In this work, we seek to understand whether a numerical climate model is capable of simulating changes in the frequency and global distribution of intense precipitation events by analysing GCM-simulated hourly precipitation rates. Our Eocene simulations are performed at x2 and x4 preindustrial CO2 using a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM, HadCM3L. Climatological differences between high- and low-CO2 may be considered analogous to the PETM. We find that changes in storm characteristics and extremes are highly regionalised. In particular, our simulations support that extreme events occurred with a reduced return period at the PETM in tropical regions of Africa and South America, whilst in the mid-latitudes the importance of extremes varies significantly between sites in close proximity. We also identify regions where changes in extreme behaviour are decoupled from those of MAP, which may represent important proxy acquisition targets. Given that tropical precipitation distributions are highly sensitive to GCM parameterisation scheme and given biases in the representation of sub-daily precipitation within HadCM3L, there is a clear need for further modelling work to fully characterise the Eocene hydrological cycle. However, our results indicate that the interpretation of existing proxies must consider the influences of both changes in mean annual precipitation rate, but also the occurrence of intense, high impact events.

Sarcoidosis with high serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), showing RS3PE-like symptoms in extremities.

PubMed

Matsuda, Masayuki; Sakurai, Kumi; Fushimi, Tomohisa; Yamamoto, Kanji; Rokuhara, Shiho; Hosaka, Naritoshi; Ikeda, Shu-ichi

2004-06-01

We report a patient with sarcoidosis who showed edema in the distal portion of all extremities, particularly the legs, as seen in remitting seronegative symmetrical synovitis with pitting edema (RS3PE). Magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated diffuse abnormal intensity in subcutaneous tissues of both legs, and skin biopsy led to a diagnosis of sarcoidosis. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) showed a high serum level, which decreased soon after starting oral prednisolone, in parallel with an improvement in the limb edema. In this patient VEGF as well as infiltration by sarcoid granuloma in the skin might have played an important role in the pathogenesis of RS3PE-like symptoms in the extremities. When painful pitting edema is seen predominantly in the distal portion of all extremities, sarcoidosis as well as RS3PE should be considered as a possible diagnosis.

An overview of LED applications for general illumination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelka, David G.; Patel, Kavita

2003-11-01

This paper begins by reviewing the current state of development of LEDs, their existing markets as well as their potential for energy conservation and their potential for gaining market share in the general illumination market. It discusses LED metrics such as chip size, lumens per watt, thermal resistance, and the recommended maximum current rating. The paper then goes on to consider the importance of non-imaging optics for both optically efficient and extremely compact LED lighting systems. Finally, microstructures useful for controlling the fields-of-view of LED lighting systems are considered and described in some detail. An extremely efficient and cost effective microstructure, called kinoform diffusers, is shown to have very unique properties that make this technology almost ideal for shaping the output beams of LED lighting systems. It concludes by illustrating some general illumination LED lighting systems

Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird

PubMed Central

Descamps, Sébastien; Tarroux, Arnaud; Varpe, Øystein; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tveraa, Torkild; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon

2015-01-01

Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985–2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state-dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change. PMID:25691959

Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird.

PubMed

Descamps, Sébastien; Tarroux, Arnaud; Varpe, Øystein; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tveraa, Torkild; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon

2015-01-01

Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985-2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state-dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change.

Daily Welcoming in Childcare Centre as a Microtransition: An Exploratory Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Venturelli, Elena; Cigala, Ada

2016-01-01

This study focuses on the everyday morning microtransition in childcare centres that involves child-parent separation. This moment involves the contemporary presence of the child, caregiver and parent in the day-care centre. This coexistence is considered extremely relevant and full of important meanings for the interactive patterns they will…

The role of humidity in determining scenarios of perceived temperature extremes in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scoccimarro, Enrico; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Gualdi, Silvio

2017-11-01

An increase of the 2 m temperature over Europe is expected within the current century. In order to consider health impacts, it is important to evaluate the combined effect of temperature and humidity on the human body. To achieve this, projections of a basic index—the humidex—representative of the perceived temperature, under different scenarios and periods, have been investigated. The simultaneous occurrence of observed extreme temperature events and perceived extreme temperature events is seldom found within the present climate, reinforcing the importance of investigating the combination of the two fields. A set of 10 km resolution regional climate simulations, provided within the EURO-CORDEX multi-model effort, demonstrates an ability in representing moderate to extreme events of perceived temperature over the present climate, and to be useful as a tool for quantifying future changes in geographical patterns of exposed areas over Europe. Following the RCP8.5 emission scenario, an expansion of the area subject to dangerous conditions is suggested from the middle of the current century, reaching 60 °N. The most significant increase of perceived extreme temperature conditions is found comparing the 2066-2095 projections to the 1976-2005 period; bearing in mind that changes in relative humidity may either amplify or offset the health effects of temperature, a less pronounced projected reduction of relative humidity in the north-eastern part of Europe, associated with extreme humidex events, makes northern Europe the most prone region to an increase of moderate to extreme values of perceived temperature. This is in agreement with a pronounced projected specific humidity increase.

Psychological and social consequences after reconstruction of upper extremity trauma: methods of detection and management.

PubMed

Galanakos, Spyridon P; Bot, Arjan G J; Zoubos, Aristides B; Soucacos, Panayotis N

2014-03-01

Upper extremity trauma and resulting disability is a stressful event and can affect a patient's personality. Several studies have shown that this injury type has serious psychological and/or social consequences. We systematically reviewed the evidence on the consequences of disability after a complex trauma (combination of soft tissue, osseous, vascular, and nerve involvement) of the upper extremity. We tried to find out the potential crucial factors that could determine the final hand function. In addition, we considered the challenges that need to be addressed to eliminate the adverse or negative effects that arise from upper limb trauma. In the literature, there is a growing interest to study changes in patients' quality of life and return to work. Psychological morbidity is an important part of patients' perceived general health. These issues could play an important role in the final functional outcome of the therapy. An early identification and treatment of trauma-related distress in patients may prevent progression of psychological pathology and mitigate negative effects on general health status. It may be important to evaluate the amount of psychological distress when caring for patients with hand injuries. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Imported fire ants: the ants from hell!

PubMed

Freeman, T M

1994-01-01

Imported fire ants may certainly be considered the ANTS FROM HELL! This review focuses on both the interesting entomology of fire ants and the important medical characteristics of fire ant stings. They sting and they kill; they destroy; they mate in mid-air; and we may not be able to stop them. However, although they inject extremely potent venom, individuals can prevent secondary infections by leaving the so-called pustules alone and not opening them. Individuals who suffer systemic reactions may receive adequate treatment with the whole body extract immunotherapy.

A Quantitative Study of the Impact of an Empirically Validated Empathy Training Program on Pre-Med Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nonnenkamp, Donna J.

2013-01-01

Medical educators recognize the need for empathetic physicians, and empathy has been considered to be extremely important in medical education. Research has shown that empathy can lead to positive patient outcomes, greater patient satisfaction, and compliance, lower malpractice litigation, reduced cost of care and fewer medical errors. The purpose…

Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2013-04-01

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions; adaptive approach that provides inherent flexibility and reversibility and avoids closing off options; importance of active learning. References: Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012). Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage. IWA Publishing, 252 p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263 Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J., Nguyen, V.T.V. (2012), 'Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings', Atmospheric Research, 103, 106-118

X-shooter Finds an Extremely Primitive Star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caffau, E.; Bonifacio, P.; François, P.; Sbordone, L.; Monaco, L.; Spite, M.; Spite, F.; Ludwig, H.-G.; Cayrel, R.; Zaggia, S.; Hammer, F.; Randich, S.; Molaro, P.; Hill, V.

2011-12-01

Low-mass extremely metal-poor (EMP) stars hold the fossil record of the chemical composition of the early phases of the Universe in their atmospheres. Chemical analysis of such objects provides important constraints on these early phases. EMP stars are rather rare objects: to dig them out, large amounts of data have to be considered. We have analysed stars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey using an automatic procedure and selected a sample of good candidate EMP stars, which we observed with the spectrographs X-shooter and UVES. We could confirm the low metallicity of our sample of stars, and we succeeded in finding a record metal-poor star.

A Methodology for Multihazards Load Combinations of Earthquake and Heavy Trucks for Bridges

PubMed Central

Wang, Xu; Sun, Baitao

2014-01-01

Issues of load combinations of earthquakes and heavy trucks are important contents in multihazards bridge design. Current load resistance factor design (LRFD) specifications usually treat extreme hazards alone and have no probabilistic basis in extreme load combinations. Earthquake load and heavy truck load are considered as random processes with respective characteristics, and the maximum combined load is not the simple superimposition of their maximum loads. Traditional Ferry Borges-Castaneda model that considers load lasting duration and occurrence probability well describes random process converting to random variables and load combinations, but this model has strict constraint in time interval selection to obtain precise results. Turkstra's rule considers one load reaching its maximum value in bridge's service life combined with another load with its instantaneous value (or mean value), which looks more rational, but the results are generally unconservative. Therefore, a modified model is presented here considering both advantages of Ferry Borges-Castaneda's model and Turkstra's rule. The modified model is based on conditional probability, which can convert random process to random variables relatively easily and consider the nonmaximum factor in load combinations. Earthquake load and heavy truck load combinations are employed to illustrate the model. Finally, the results of a numerical simulation are used to verify the feasibility and rationality of the model. PMID:24883347

ASSESSMENT OF UPPER EXTREMITY IMPAIRMENT, FUNCTION, AND ACTIVITY FOLLOWING STROKE: FOUNDATIONS FOR CLINICAL DECISION MAKING

PubMed Central

Lang, Catherine E.; Bland, Marghuretta D.; Bailey, Ryan R.; Schaefer, Sydney Y.; Birkenmeier, Rebecca L.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this review is to provide a comprehensive approach for assessing the upper extremity (UE) after stroke. First, common upper extremity impairments and how to assess them are briefly discussed. While multiple UE impairments are typically present after stroke, the severity of one impairment, paresis, is the primary determinant of UE functional loss. Second, UE function is operationally defined and a number of clinical measures are discussed. It is important to consider how impairment and loss of function affect UE activity outside of the clinical environment. Thus, this review also identifies accelerometry as an objective method for assessing UE activity in daily life. Finally, the role that each of these levels of assessment should play in clinical decision making is discussed in order to optimize the provision of stroke rehabilitation services. PMID:22975740

Plant volatiles in extreme terrestrial and marine environments.

PubMed

Rinnan, Riikka; Steinke, Michael; McGenity, Terry; Loreto, Francesco

2014-08-01

This review summarizes the current understanding on plant and algal volatile organic compound (VOC) production and emission in extreme environments, where temperature, water availability, salinity or other environmental factors pose stress on vegetation. Here, the extreme environments include terrestrial systems, such as arctic tundra, deserts, CO₂ springs and wetlands, and marine systems such as sea ice, tidal rock pools and hypersaline environments, with mangroves and salt marshes at the land-sea interface. The emission potentials at fixed temperature and light level or actual emission rates for phototrophs in extreme environments are frequently higher than for organisms from less stressful environments. For example, plants from the arctic tundra appear to have higher emission potentials for isoprenoids than temperate species, and hypersaline marine habitats contribute to global dimethyl sulphide (DMS) emissions in significant amounts. DMS emissions are more widespread than previously considered, for example, in salt marshes and some desert plants. The reason for widespread VOC, especially isoprenoid, emissions from different extreme environments deserves further attention, as these compounds may have important roles in stress resistance and adaptation to extremes. Climate warming is likely to significantly increase VOC emissions from extreme environments both by direct effects on VOC production and volatility, and indirectly by altering the composition of the vegetation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Irrigation mitigates against heat extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Fischer, Erich; Visser, Auke; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use gridded observations and ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impact on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on hot extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. Finally we find that present-day irrigation is partly masking GHG-induced warming of extreme temperatures, with particularly strong effects in South Asia. Our results overall underline that irrigation substantially reduces our exposure to hot temperature extremes and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.

Multi-cultural components and keys for European worldwide space programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinotti, Roberto

1991-12-01

The role of different cultures in space missions is considered with regard to NASA and ESA astronauts and Russian cosmonauts. The identification of all the psychological and socio-anthropological components in the behavior of human groups in space is extremely important to understand and solve different problems and obtain the mission's success. In this light, the creation of a multicultural atmosphere aboard is considered a positive aspect for future space programs, and the synthesis of European cultural elements is a definite key to develop morale and productivity.

Large Scale Meteorological Pattern of Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuswanto, Heri; Grotjahn, Richard; Rachmi, Arinda; Suhermi, Novri; Oktania, Erma; Wijaya, Yosep

2014-05-01

Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) cause negative impacts socially, economically, and environmentally. Considering these facts, forecasting EWEs is crucial work. Indonesia has been identified as being among the countries most vulnerable to the risk of natural disasters, such as floods, heat waves, and droughts. Current forecasting of extreme events in Indonesia is carried out by interpreting synoptic maps for several fields without taking into account the link between the observed events in the 'target' area with remote conditions. This situation may cause misidentification of the event leading to an inaccurate prediction. Grotjahn and Faure (2008) compute composite maps from extreme events (including heat waves and intense rainfall) to help forecasters identify such events in model output. The composite maps show large scale meteorological patterns (LSMP) that occurred during historical EWEs. Some vital information about the EWEs can be acquired from studying such maps, in addition to providing forecaster guidance. Such maps have robust mid-latitude meteorological patterns (for Sacramento and California Central Valley, USA EWEs). We study the performance of the composite approach for tropical weather condition such as Indonesia. Initially, the composite maps are developed to identify and forecast the extreme weather events in Indramayu district- West Java, the main producer of rice in Indonesia and contributes to about 60% of the national total rice production. Studying extreme weather events happening in Indramayu is important since EWEs there affect national agricultural and fisheries activities. During a recent EWE more than a thousand houses in Indramayu suffered from serious flooding with each home more than one meter underwater. The flood also destroyed a thousand hectares of rice plantings in 5 regencies. Identifying the dates of extreme events is one of the most important steps and has to be carried out carefully. An approach has been applied to identify the dates involving observations from multiple sites (rain gauges). The approach combines the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) with 'declustering' of the data to approximate independence based on the autocorrelation structure of each rainfall series. The cross correlation among sites is considered also to develop the event's criteria yielding a rational choice of the extreme dates given the 'spotty' nature of the intense convection. Based on the identified dates, we are developing a supporting tool for forecasting extreme rainfall based on the corresponding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The LSMPs methodology focuses on the larger-scale patterns that the model are better able to forecast, as those larger-scale patterns create the conditions fostering the local EWE. Bootstrap resampling method is applied to highlight the key features that statistically significant with the extreme events. Grotjahn, R., and G. Faure. 2008: Composite Predictor Maps of Extraordinary Weather Events in the Sacramento California Region. Weather and Forecasting. 23: 313-335.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

PubMed Central

Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-01-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610382

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

PubMed

Seneviratne, Sonia I; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P; Hirsch, Annette L; Vogel, Martha M; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-13

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Test-retest and interrater reliability of the functional lower extremity evaluation.

PubMed

Haitz, Karyn; Shultz, Rebecca; Hodgins, Melissa; Matheson, Gordon O

2014-12-01

Repeated-measures clinical measurement reliability study. To establish the reliability and face validity of the Functional Lower Extremity Evaluation (FLEE). The FLEE is a 45-minute battery of 8 standardized functional performance tests that measures 3 components of lower extremity function: control, power, and endurance. The reliability and normative values for the FLEE in healthy athletes are unknown. A face validity survey for the FLEE was sent to sports medicine personnel to evaluate the level of importance and frequency of clinical usage of each test included in the FLEE. The FLEE was then administered and rated for 40 uninjured athletes. To assess test-retest reliability, each athlete was tested twice, 1 week apart, by the same rater. To assess interrater reliability, 3 raters scored each athlete during 1 of the testing sessions. Intraclass correlation coefficients were used to assess the test-retest and interrater reliability of each of the FLEE tests. In the face validity survey, the FLEE tests were rated as highly important by 58% to 71% of respondents but frequently used by only 26% to 45% of respondents. Interrater reliability intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.83 to 1.00, and test-retest reliability ranged from 0.71 to 0.95. The FLEE tests are considered clinically important for assessing lower extremity function by sports medicine personnel but are underused. The FLEE also is a reliable assessment tool. Future studies are required to determine if use of the FLEE to make return-to-play decisions may reduce reinjury rates.

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

Call for national dialogue: Adapting standards of care in extreme events. We are not ready.

PubMed

Cusack, Lynette; Gebbie, Kristine

Clinical practices are based on a common understanding of nursing's professional standards in all aspects of patient care, no matter what the circumstances are. Circumstances can however, change dramatically due to emergencies, disasters, or pandemics and may make it difficult to meet the standard of care in the way nurses are accustomed. The Australian nursing profession has not yet facilitated a broad discussion and debate at the professional and institutional level about adapting standards of care under extreme conditions, a dialogue which goes beyond the content of basic emergency and disaster preparedness. The purpose of this paper is to encourage discussion within the nursing profession on this important ethical and legal issue. A comprehensive review of the literature was undertaken to determine the state of the evidence in relation to adapting standards of care under extreme conditions. Content analysis of the literature identified categories related to adapting standards of care that have been considered by individuals or groups that should be considered in Australia, should a dialogue be undertaken. The categories include ethical expectations of professional practice; legal interpretation of care requirements, resource priority between hospital and public health and informing communities. Literature reviews and commentary may provide the background for a national dialogue on the nursing response in an extreme event. However, it is only with the engagement of a broadly representative segment of the professional nursing community that appropriate guidance on adapting standards of care under extreme conditions can be developed and then integrated into the professional worldview of nursing in Australia.

Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

2017-09-01

Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This study shows that the use of interannual characteristics can help to gain more insight into the impact of dam regulation on flow regimes and will provide important information to scientifically guide the multi-purpose regulation of dams.

A comparative theoretical study on the structural, electronic and nonlinear optical features of B12N12 and Al12N12 nanoclusters with the groups III, IV and V dopants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakerzadeh, Ehsan; Barazesh, Neda; Talebi, Sima Zargar

2014-12-01

The structural, electronic and nonlinear optical properties of the two important fullerene-like cages of B12N12 and Al12N12 nanostructures with the groups III, IV and V dopants are investigated through density functional theory (DFT) calculations. It has been found that doping process induces local deformation at bond lengths near the doping site. Natural bond orbital (NBO) analyses are also performed for scrutinizing the structural properties of the considered nanoclusters. The results indicate that the groups III, IV and V dopants remarkably narrow the energy gap of the B12N12 nanocluster. On the other hand, although the energy gap of Al12N12 nanocluster is insensitive to groups III and V dopants; the carbon, silicon and germanium dopants extremely reduce the energy gap of this cluster. It seems that the electronic character of the B12N12 and Al12N12 nanocluster is sensitive to the dopants and it could be adjusted by particular impurity. Moreover the considered dopants induce hyperpolarizability in both of the considered nanoclusters. Interestingly, the replacing aluminum atom by carbon one in Al12N12 nanocluster (CAl11N12) leads to an extremely large hyperpolarizability value of 4358.77 a.u., which is the largest one among the considered doped clusters. It shows that the doping process plays an important role in enhancing the first hyperpolarizability of the B12N12 and Al12N12 nanoclusters.

[Shoulder injuries in golf].

PubMed

Liem, D; Gosheger, G; Schmidt, C

2014-03-01

Due to its growing popularity golf has now come into the focus of orthopedic sports medicine. With a wide range of age groups and playing levels, orthopedic surgeons will encounter a wide range of musculoskeletal problems which are usually the result of overuse rather than trauma. The shoulder joint plays an important role in the golf swing whereby not only the muscles around the glenohumeral joint but also the scapula stabilizing muscles are extremely important for an effective golf swing. Golf is strictly not considered to be an overhead sport; however, the extreme peak positions of the golf swing involve placing the shoulder joint in maximum abduction and adduction positions which can provoke impingement, lesions of the pulley system or even a special form of posterior shoulder instability. Even after complex shoulder operations, such as rotator cuff repair or shoulder arthroplasty, a return to the golf course at nearly the same level of play can be expected.

Thermodynamics with pressure and volume under charged particle absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gwak, Bogeun

2017-11-01

We investigate the variation of the charged anti-de Sitter black hole under charged particle absorption by considering thermodynamic volume. When the energy of the particle is considered to contribute to the internal energy of the black hole, the variation exactly corresponds to the prediction of the first law of thermodynamics. Nevertheless, we find the decrease of the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy for extremal and near-extremal black holes under the absorption, which is an irreversible process. This violation of the second law of thermodynamics is only found when considering thermodynamic volume. We test the weak cosmic censorship conjecture affected by the violation. Fortunately, the conjecture is still valid, but extremal and near-extremal black holes do not change their configurations when any particle enters the black hole. This result is quite different from the case in which thermodynamic volume is not considered.

Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

2016-02-01

The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this reason, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. The significant height values for the areas focused on in the study were calculated in accordance with Gumbel's extreme value methodology. The methodology was evaluated using data from the reanalysis of the spectral National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombian Caribbean coastline (continental and insular) between the years 1979 and 2009. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and those caused by cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area (consisting of Baja Guajira, and the cities of Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena), the strong impact of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. However, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast (ranging from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá), the extreme values of wave heights are lower than in the previously mentioned regions, despite being dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to their geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than those associated with the hurricane season.

(When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

2015-04-01

In the context of ongoing climate change, extremes are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency. One of the most important consequences of these changes is that the associated ecological risks and impacts are potentially rising as well. In order to better anticipate and understand these impacts, it therefore becomes more and more crucial to understand the general connection between climate extremes and the response and functionality of ecosystems. Among other region of the world, Europe presents an excellent test case for studies concerning the interaction between climate and biosphere, since it lies in the transition region between cold polar and warm tropical air masses and thus covers a great variety of different climatic zones and associated terrestrial ecosystems. The large temperature differences across the continent make this region particularly interesting for investigating the effects of climate change on biosphere-climate interactions. However, previously used methods for defining an extreme event typically disregard the necessity of taking seasonality as well as seasonal variance appropriately into account. Furthermore, most studies have focused on the impacts of individual extreme events instead of considering a whole inventory of extremes with their respective spatio-temporal extents. In order to overcome the aforementioned research gaps, this work introduces a new approach to studying climate-biosphere interactions associated with extreme events, which comprises three consecutive steps: (1) Since Europe exhibits climatic conditions characterized by marked seasonality, a novel method is developed to define extreme events taking into account the seasonality in all quantiles of the probability distribution of the respective variable of interest. This is achieved by considering kernel density estimates individually for each observation date during the year, including the properly weighted information from adjacent dates. By this procedure, we obtain a seasonal cycle for each quantile of the distribution, which can be used for a fully data-adaptive definition of extremes as exceedances above this time-dependent quantile function. (2) Having thus identified the extreme events, their distribution is analyzed in both space and time. Following a procedure recently proposed by Lloyd-Hughes (2012) and further exploited by Zscheischler et al. (2013), extremes observed at neighboring points in space and time are considered to form connected sets. Investigating the size distribution of these sets provides novel insights into the development and dynamical characteristics of spatio-temporally extended climate and ecosystem extremes. (3) Finally, the timing of such spatio-temporally extended extremes in different climatic as well as ecological variables is tested pairwise to rule out that co-occurrences of extremes have emerged solely due to chance. For this purpose, the recently developed framework of coincidence analysis (Donges et al., 2011; Rammig et al. 2014) is applied. The corresponding analysis allows identifying potential causal linkages between climatic extremes and extreme ecosystem responses and, thus, to study their mechanisms and spatial as well as seasonal distribution in great detail. In this work, the described method is exemplified by using different climate data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis as well as remote sensing-based land surface temperature data. References: Donges et al., PNAS, 108, 20422, 2011 Lloyd-Hughes, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 406, 2012 Rammig et al., Biogeosc. Disc., 11, 2537, 2014 Zscheischler et al., Ecol. Inform., 15, 66, 2013

Evolution of Precipitation Extremes in Three Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations - Impact of Spatial and Temporal Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, J. L.; Brissette, F.; Mailhot, A.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Turcotte, R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase in future climate due to global warming. In this study, we compare annual maxima precipitation series from three large ensembles of climate simulations at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The first two are at the global scale: the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (CanESM2-LE) at a 2.8° resolution and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (CESM1-LE) at a 1° resolution. The third ensemble is at the regional scale over both Eastern North America and Europe: the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) 50-member large ensemble (CRCM5-LE) at a 0.11° resolution, driven at its boundaries by the CanESM-LE. The CRCM5-LE is a new ensemble issued from the ClimEx project (http://www.climex-project.org), a Québec-Bavaria collaboration. Using these three large ensembles, change in extreme precipitations over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods are investigated. This results in 1 500 (30 years x 50 members for CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members for CESM1-LE) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. Using these large datasets, the empirical daily (and sub-daily for CRCM5-LE) extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed. Results indicate that daily extreme precipitations generally will increase over most land grid points of both domains according to the three large ensembles. Regarding the CRCM5-LE, the increase in sub-daily extreme precipitations will be even more important than the one observed for daily extreme precipitations. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety.

Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, David M.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-02-01

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. An evaluation of the model performance reveals that irrigation has a small yet overall beneficial effect on the representation of present-day near-surface climate. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impact on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. Our results underline that irrigation has substantially reduced our exposure to hot temperature extremes in the past and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.

Approaching the exa-scale: a real-world evaluation of rendering extremely large data sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patchett, John M; Ahrens, James P; Lo, Li - Ta

2010-10-15

Extremely large scale analysis is becoming increasingly important as supercomputers and their simulations move from petascale to exascale. The lack of dedicated hardware acceleration for rendering on today's supercomputing platforms motivates our detailed evaluation of the possibility of interactive rendering on the supercomputer. In order to facilitate our understanding of rendering on the supercomputing platform, we focus on scalability of rendering algorithms and architecture envisioned for exascale datasets. To understand tradeoffs for dealing with extremely large datasets, we compare three different rendering algorithms for large polygonal data: software based ray tracing, software based rasterization and hardware accelerated rasterization. We presentmore » a case study of strong and weak scaling of rendering extremely large data on both GPU and CPU based parallel supercomputers using Para View, a parallel visualization tool. Wc use three different data sets: two synthetic and one from a scientific application. At an extreme scale, algorithmic rendering choices make a difference and should be considered while approaching exascale computing, visualization, and analysis. We find software based ray-tracing offers a viable approach for scalable rendering of the projected future massive data sizes.« less

Assessment of the Long Term Trends in Extreme Heat Events and the Associated Health Impacts in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J.; Rennie, J.; Kunkel, K.; Herring, S.; Cullen, H. M.

2017-12-01

Land surface air temperature products have been essential for monitoring the evolution of the climate system. Before a temperature dataset is included in such reports, it is important that non-climatic influences be removed or changed so the dataset is considered homogenous. These inhomogeneities include changes in station location, instrumentation and observing practices. While many homogenized products exist on the monthly time scale, few daily products exist, due to the complication of removing breakpoints that are truly inhomogeneous rather than solely by chance (for example, sharp changes due to synoptic conditions). Recently, a sub monthly homogenized dataset has been developed using data and software provided by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Homogeneous daily data are useful for identification and attribution of extreme heat events over a period of time. Projections of increasing temperatures are expected to result in corresponding increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events. It is also established that extreme heat events can have significant public health impacts, including short-term increases in mortality and morbidity. In addition, it can exacerbate chronic health conditions in vulnerable populations, including renal and cardiovascular issues. To understand how heat events impact a specific population, it will be important to connect observations on the duration and intensity of extreme heat events with health impacts data including insurance claims and hospital admissions data. This presentation will explain the methodology to identify extreme heat events, provide a climatology of heat event onset, length and severity, and explore a case study of an anomalous heat event with available health data.

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-03-01

Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

Seismometer Self-Noise and Measuring Methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringler, Adam; R. Sleeman,; Hutt, Charles R.; Gee, Lind S.

2014-01-01

Seismometer self-noise is usually not considered when selecting and using seismic waveform data in scientific research as it is typically assumed that the self-noise is negligibly small compared to seismic signals. However, instrumental noise is part of the noise in any seismic record, and in particular, at frequencies below a few mHz, the instrumental noise has a frequency-dependent character and may dominate the noise. When seismic noise itself is considered as a carrier of information, as in seismic interferometry (e.g., Chaput et al. 2012), it becomes extremely important to estimate the contribution of instrumental noise to the recordings.

Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

2017-05-01

This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

2010-05-01

As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961, 1990 and 2007 whereas exceptionally extreme late events are seen in the year 1970. Summer phases such as fruit ripening exhibit stronger shifts to early extremes than spring phases. Leaf colouring phases reveal increasing probability for late extremes. The with GEV estimated 100-year event of Picea, Pinus and Larix amount to extreme early events of about -27, -31.48 and -32.79 days, respectively. If we assume non-stationary minimum data we get a more extreme 100-year event of about -35.40 for Picea but associated with wider confidence intervals. The GEV is simply another probability distribution but for purposes of extreme analysis in phenology it should be considered as equally important as (if not more important than) the Gaussian PDF approach.

Construction and preliminary validation of a dictionary for cognitive rigidity: linguistic markers of overconfidence and overgeneralization and their concomitant psychological distress.

PubMed

Cohen, Shuki J

2012-10-01

Fanaticism and extremism are increasingly recognized as seminal to psychopathology and distress, especially considering the increase in political unrest and violence over the last decade. In the psychopathological literature, however, the cognitive style associated with extremism and overgeneralization has long been recognized as a risk factor for emotional distress, leading to both externalizing behavior (e.g. aggression) and internalizing pathology (e.g. depression). Despite its recognized importance, however, virtually no standardized measures of this cognitive style exist. Since direct inquiry about a respondent's Cognitive Rigidity, is likely to be biased, a text-analytical measure of extremism in spontaneous autobiographical narratives is proposed. In contrast to self-reports, naturally occurring speech often suggests cognitive proclivities towards overgeneralization, overconfidence or extremization. In this study, spoken autobiographical narratives were elicited from 483 participants, and contrasted with extensive mental health information using a hierarchical concordanced-keyword technique. The resulting corpus-based dictionary is context-sensitive, and exhibits significant correlations with measures of negative emotionality, with minimal association with response bias measures.

The development of personality extremity from childhood to adolescence: relations to internalizing and externalizing problems.

PubMed

Van den Akker, Alithe L; Prinzie, Peter; Deković, Maja; De Haan, Amaranta D; Asscher, Jessica J; Widiger, Thomas

2013-12-01

This study investigated the development of personality extremity (deviation of an average midpoint of all 5 personality dimensions together) across childhood and adolescence, as well as relations between personality extremity and adjustment problems. For 598 children (mean age at Time 1 = 7.5 years), mothers and fathers reported the Big Five personality dimensions 4 times across 8 years. Children's vector length in a 5-dimensional configuration of the Big Five dimensions represented personality extremity. Mothers, fathers, and teachers reported children's internalizing and externalizing problems at the 1st and final measurement. In a cohort-sequential design, we modeled personality extremity in children and adolescents from ages 6 to 17 years. Growth mixture modeling revealed a similar solution for both mother and father reports: a large group with relatively short vectors that were stable over time (mother reports: 80.3%; father reports: 84.7%) and 2 smaller groups with relatively long vectors (i.e., extreme personality configuration). One group started out relatively extreme and decreased over time (mother reports: 13.2%; father reports: 10.4%), whereas the other group started out only slightly higher than the short vector group but increased across time (mother reports: 6.5%; father reports: 4.9%). Children who belonged to the increasingly extreme class experienced more internalizing and externalizing problems in late adolescence, controlling for previous levels of adjustment problems and the Big Five personality dimensions. Personality extremity may be important to consider when identifying children at risk for adjustment problems. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. Methods A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Results Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. Conclusions With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies. PMID:24889099

Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders.

PubMed

Hansen, Alana; Nitschke, Monika; Saniotis, Arthur; Benson, Jill; Tan, Yan; Smyth, Val; Wilson, Leigh; Han, Gil-Soo; Mwanri, Lillian; Bi, Peng

2014-06-03

Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies.

Infectious syphilis mimicking neoplastic disease.

PubMed

Drusin, L M; Singer, C; Valenti, A J; Armstrong, D

1977-02-01

Five patients who were initially evaluated for malignant neoplasm actually had infectious syphillis (one primary, two secondaries, two secondaries with persistence of primary). Two patients were considered for radical surgery and one for extensive radiation and/or chemotherapy. In four patients an elevated routine admission VDRL was the first indication of the correct diagnosis. Dark-field examination is the most important laboratory test in the diagnosis of primary syphillis; VDRL and FTA-ABS are most important in confirming secondary syphillis. Penicillin remains the drug of choice for therapy. At a time when the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases is increasing, it is extremely important to develop adequate educational programs for medical students and physicians.

Population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades [1]. The physical effects of extreme heat on human populations are well-documented, and anticipating changes in future exposure to extreme heat is a key component of adequate planning/mitigation [2, 3]. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we focus on systematically quantifying exposure to extreme heat as a function of both climate and population change. We compare exposure outcomes across multiple global climate and spatial population scenarios, and characterize the relative contributions of each to population exposure to extreme heat. We consider a 2 x 2 matrix of climate and population output, using projections of heat extremes corresponding to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the NCAR community land model, and spatial population projections for SSP 3 and SSP 5 from the NCAR spatial population downscaling model. Our primary comparison is across RCPs - exposure outcomes from RCP 4.5 versus RCP 8.5 - paying particular attention to how variation depends on the choice of SSP in terms of aggregate global and regional exposure, as well as the spatial distribution of exposure. We assess how aggregate exposure changes based on the choice of SSP, and which driver is more important, population or climate change (i.e. does that outcome vary more as a result of RCP or SSP). We further decompose the population component to analyze the contributions of total population change, migration, and changes in local spatial structure. Preliminary results from a similar study of the US suggests a four-to-six fold increase in total exposure by the latter half of the 21st century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome, and there is regional variation in the relative importance of each. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of the population across larger US regions, strongly affects outcomes while smaller-scale spatial patterns of population change have smaller effects. [1] Collins, M. et al. (2013) Contribution of WG I to the 5th AR of the IPCC[2] Romero-Lankao, P. et al (2014) Contribution of WG II to the 5th AR of the IPCC[3] Walsh, J. et al. (2014) The 3rd National Climate Assessment

Issues of Food Chain Security and Case Studies in the Czech Army

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komar, Ales; Vasicka, Pavlina

Food supply system is fundamental extremely open complex. Global challenge is acknowledged and must be considered because food is important source of existence and can be used as a desirable terrorist vehicle. Raw material and food featured intentional versus accidental contamination. Manifestation of global challenges, aspiration for sustainable development and appearance of terrorism create the new paradigm for threats to food safety and defence management.

Critical mass flux for flaming ignition of wood as a function of external radiant heat flux and moisture content

Treesearch

S. McAllister; M. Finney; J. Cohen

2011-01-01

Extreme weather often contributes to crown fires, where the fire spreads from one tree crown to the next as a series of piloted ignitions. An important aspect in predicting crown fires is understanding the ignition of fuel particles. The ignition criterion considered in this work is the critical mass flux criterion - that a sufficient amount of pyrolysis gases must be...

Critical mass flux for flaming ignition of dead, dry wood as a function of exernal radiant heat flux

Treesearch

Sara McAllister; Mark Finney; Jack Cohen

2010-01-01

Extreme weather often contributes to crown fires, where the fire spreads from one tree crown to the next as a series of piloted ignitions. An important aspect in predicting crown fires is understanding the ignition of fuel particles. The ignition criterion considered in this work is the critical mass flux criterion - that a sufficient amount of pyrolysis gases must be...

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change for the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is rerun using identical model configurations. Response of extreme rainfall as well as changes in thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties will be presented and analyzed. Contrasting responses across the three storm events to climate change will shed light on critical environmental factors for TC-related extreme rainfall over eastern US.

Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: a review.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Willems, P; Olsson, J; Beecham, S; Pathirana, A; Bülow Gregersen, I; Madsen, H; Nguyen, V-T-V

2013-01-01

A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of how to describe precipitation patterns in a changing climate in order to design and operate urban drainage infrastructure. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future.

Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes

DOE PAGES

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, David M.; ...

2017-02-16

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. An evaluation of the model performance reveals that irrigation has a small yet overall beneficial effect on the representation of present-day near-surface climate. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impactmore » on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. In conclusion, our results underline that irrigation has substantially reduced our exposure to hot temperature extremes in the past and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.« less

Plastic Surgery Challenges in War Wounded I: Flap-Based Extremity Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Sabino, Jennifer M.; Slater, Julia; Valerio, Ian L.

2016-01-01

Scope and Significance: Reconstruction of traumatic injuries requiring tissue transfer begins with aggressive resuscitation and stabilization. Systematic advances in acute casualty care at the point of injury have improved survival and allowed for increasingly complex treatment before definitive reconstruction at tertiary medical facilities outside the combat zone. As a result, the complexity of the limb salvage algorithm has increased over 14 years of combat activities in Iraq and Afghanistan. Problem: Severe poly-extremity trauma in combat casualties has led to a large number of extremity salvage cases. Advanced reconstructive techniques coupled with regenerative medicine applications have played a critical role in the restoration, recovery, and rehabilitation of functional limb salvage. Translational Relevance: The past 14 years of war trauma have increased our understanding of tissue transfer for extremity reconstruction in the treatment of combat casualties. Injury patterns, flap choice, and reconstruction timing are critical variables to consider for optimal outcomes. Clinical Relevance: Subacute reconstruction with specifically chosen flap tissue and donor site location based on individual injuries result in successful tissue transfer, even in critically injured patients. These considerations can be combined with regenerative therapies to optimize massive wound coverage and limb salvage form and function in previously active patients. Summary: Traditional soft tissue reconstruction is integral in the treatment of war extremity trauma. Pedicle and free flaps are a critically important part of the reconstructive ladder for salvaging extreme extremity injuries that are seen as a result of the current practice of war. PMID:27679751

Sulfur mustard gas exposure: case report and review of the literature

PubMed Central

Goverman, J.; Montecino, R.; Ibrahim, A.; Sarhane, K.A.; Tompkins, R.G.; Fagan, S.P.

2014-01-01

Summary This report describes a case of burn injury following exposure to sulfur mustard, a chemical agent used in war. A review of the diagnostic characteristics, clinical manifestations, and therapeutic measures used to treat this uncommon, yet extremely toxic, entity is presented. The aim of this report is to highlight the importance of considering this diagnosis in any war victim, especially during these unfortunate times of rising terrorist activities. PMID:26170794

Lionfish envenomation.

PubMed

Vetrano, Stephen J; Lebowitz, Jeffery B; Marcus, Steven

2002-11-01

Lionfish (Pterois volitans) are venomous fish most often found as aquarium pets throughout the United States. Lionfish envenomations frequently occur on the upper extremities, with pain as the predominant symptom. Immersing the injured part in warm (45 degrees C) water is considered the first and foremost important treatment as it is reported to relieve pain and inactivate the venom. Other methods of analgesia are discussed. We present a case of lionfish envenomation that failed to respond to warm water immersion.

Geophysical Hazards and Preventive Disaster Management of Extreme Natural Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Takeuchi, K.

2007-12-01

Geophysical hazard is potentially damaging natural event and/or phenomenon, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption, or environmental degradation. Extreme natural hazards are a key manifestation of the complex hierarchical nonlinear Earth system. An understanding, accurate modeling and forecasting of the extreme hazards are most important scientific challenges. Several recent extreme natural events (e.g., 2004 Great Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami and the 2005 violent Katrina hurricane) demonstrated strong coupling between solid Earth and ocean, and ocean and atmosphere. These events resulted in great humanitarian tragedies because of a weak preventive disaster management. The less often natural events occur (and the extreme events are rare by definition), the more often the disaster managers postpone the preparedness to the events. The tendency to reduce the funding for preventive disaster management of natural catastrophes is seldom follows the rules of responsible stewardship for future generations neither in developing countries nor in highly developed economies where it must be considered next to malfeasance. Protecting human life and property against earthquake disasters requires an uninterrupted chain of tasks: from (i) understanding of physics of the events, analysis and monitoring, through (ii) interpretation, modeling, hazard assessment, and prediction, to (iii) public awareness, preparedness, and preventive disaster management.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, David M.

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. An evaluation of the model performance reveals that irrigation has a small yet overall beneficial effect on the representation of present-day near-surface climate. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impactmore » on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. In conclusion, our results underline that irrigation has substantially reduced our exposure to hot temperature extremes in the past and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.« less

Spatial extremes modeling applied to extreme precipitation data in the state of Paraná

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olinda, R. A.; Blanchet, J.; dos Santos, C. A. C.; Ozaki, V. A.; Ribeiro, P. J., Jr.

2014-11-01

Most of the mathematical models developed for rare events are based on probabilistic models for extremes. Although the tools for statistical modeling of univariate and multivariate extremes are well developed, the extension of these tools to model spatial extremes includes an area of very active research nowadays. A natural approach to such a modeling is the theory of extreme spatial and the max-stable process, characterized by the extension of infinite dimensions of multivariate extreme value theory, and making it possible then to incorporate the existing correlation functions in geostatistics and therefore verify the extremal dependence by means of the extreme coefficient and the Madogram. This work describes the application of such processes in modeling the spatial maximum dependence of maximum monthly rainfall from the state of Paraná, based on historical series observed in weather stations. The proposed models consider the Euclidean space and a transformation referred to as space weather, which may explain the presence of directional effects resulting from synoptic weather patterns. This method is based on the theorem proposed for de Haan and on the models of Smith and Schlather. The isotropic and anisotropic behavior of these models is also verified via Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates are made through pairwise likelihood maximum and the models are compared using the Takeuchi Information Criterion. By modeling the dependence of spatial maxima, applied to maximum monthly rainfall data from the state of Paraná, it was possible to identify directional effects resulting from meteorological phenomena, which, in turn, are important for proper management of risks and environmental disasters in countries with its economy heavily dependent on agribusiness.

Extremes of Survival Achieved by the Radiophile Deinococcus Radiodurans: A Model for Microbial Life on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daly, M.; Sridhar, R.; Richmond, R.

1999-01-01

Deinococcus radiodurans is an extremophile in more than one defined way. First it is extreme in its resistance to freeze drying. Second it is probably uniquely extreme on Earth in its resistance to ionizing radiation. The polyextremophilic capacity of D. radiodurans will be considered. The selection pressures on Mars will then be considered in relation to D. radiodurans in order to support a hypothesis that if microbial life exists on Mars, then it likely includes polyextremophiles.

Lower extremity finite element model for crash simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schauer, D.A.; Perfect, S.A.

1996-03-01

A lower extremity model has been developed to study occupant injury mechanisms of the major bones and ligamentous soft tissues resulting from vehicle collisions. The model is based on anatomically correct digitized bone surfaces of the pelvis, femur, patella and the tibia. Many muscles, tendons and ligaments were incrementally added to the basic bone model. We have simulated two types of occupant loading that occur in a crash environment using a non-linear large deformation finite element code. The modeling approach assumed that the leg was passive during its response to the excitation, that is, no active muscular contraction and thereforemore » no active change in limb stiffness. The approach recognized that the most important contributions of the muscles to the lower extremity response are their ability to define and modify the impedance of the limb. When nonlinear material behavior in a component of the leg model was deemed important to response, a nonlinear constitutive model was incorporated. The accuracy of these assumptions can be verified only through a review of analysis results and careful comparison with test data. As currently defined, the model meets the objective for which it was created. Much work remains to be done, both from modeling and analysis perspectives, before the model can be considered complete. The model implements a modeling philosophy that can accurately capture both kinematic and kinetic response of the lower limb. We have demonstrated that the lower extremity model is a valuable tool for understanding the injury processes and mechanisms. We are now in a position to extend the computer simulation to investigate the clinical fracture patterns observed in actual crashes. Additional experience with this model will enable us to make a statement on what measures are needed to significantly reduce lower extremity injuries in vehicle crashes. 6 refs.« less

Influence of hurricane-related activity on North American extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, Mathew

2010-05-01

Individual hurricanes and their remnants can produce exceptionally intense rainfall, and the associated flooding, even independent of storm surge, is one of the leading causes of hurricane-related death in the U.S. Despite the catastrophic societal costs of hurricanes and the considerable recent attention to possible trends in strength and number, little is known about the general contribution of hurricane-related activity to extreme precipitation over North America and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. Here we show, based on a 25-year observational analysis, that there are important contributions to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events over more than half of North America, including a pronounced signal over northern and inland areas, associated with an average span of influence that extends to several hundred kilometers. Large-scale vertical velocity, maximum wind speed, and tropical/extratropical character are important factors in the strength and range of influence, and the pattern of influence depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of precipitation is considered. Associated changes in stability, moisture, and vertical motion are analyzed to investigate the dynamics of the influence: the largest changes are in vertical motion, with the hurricane-related activity bringing deep tropical values even to inland and high latitude areas, consistent with the occurrence of very heavy, tropical-like precipitation. While the maximum contribution of hurricane-related activity to mean precipitation is generally less than 25% even for the most-affected coastal regions, the contribution to extreme events is much larger: well over 50% for several regions and exceeding 25% for large swaths of the continent. Typical track density plots do not capture the activity's influence on extreme precipitation.

The role of atmospheric diagnosis and Big Data science in improving hydroclimatic extreme prediction and the merits of climate informed prediction for future water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu

2017-04-01

The threats that hydroclimatic extremes pose to sustainable development, safety and operation of infrastructure are both severe and growing. Recent heavy precipitation triggered flood events in many regions and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation suggested by various climate projections highlight the importance of understanding the associated hydrometeorological patterns and space-time variability of such extreme events, and developing a new approach to improve predictability with a better estimation of uncertainty. This clear objective requires the optimal utility of Big Data analytics on multi-source datasets to extract informative predictors from the complex ocean-atmosphere coupled system and develop a statistical and physical based framework. The proposed presentation includes the essence of our selected works in the past two years, as part of our Global Floods Initiatives. Our approach for an improved extreme prediction begins with a better understanding of the associated atmospheric circulation patterns, under the influence and regulation of slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions [Lu et al., 2013, 2016a; Lu and Lall, 2016]. The study of the associated atmospheric circulation pattern and the regulation of teleconnected climate signals adopted data science techniques and statistical modeling recognizing the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the system, as the underlying statistical assumptions of the classical extreme value frequency analysis are challenged in hydroclimatic studies. There are two main factors that are considered important for understanding how future flood risk will change. One is the consideration of moisture holding capacity as a function of temperature, as suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The other is the strength of the convergence or convection associated with extreme precipitation. As convergence or convection gets stronger, rain rates can be expected to increase if the moisture is available. For extreme rainfall events in the mid-latitudes, tropical moisture sources related to strong convection from equatorial oceans were identified together with atmospheric circulation conditions that in favor of consistent transport and convergence of moisture [Lu et al., 2013; Lu and Lall, 2016]. Further, [Lu et al., 2016a] linked the influence of the slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions with the development of the global atmospheric circulation and showed that (1) strong convection over the oceans and the atmospheric moisture transport and flow convergence indicated by atmospheric pressure fields can determine where and when extreme precipitation occurs; and (2) the time-lagged spatial relationship between teleconnected oceanic signals and synoptic atmospheric circulations can improve the predictability of extreme precipitation globally over the next 30 days; such a forecast would be potentially very useful for flood preparation at a lead time that is well beyond the lead time of meteorological forecasts, and it corresponds to a gap in the predictability between quantitative precipitation forecasts and seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. Lastly, we will demonstrate our most recent results showing the merits of utilizing climate informed forecasts for water resources management, considering irrigation supply, hydropower and flood control, with marked-based financial instruments [Lu et al., 2016b].

Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Generalized Pareto Distribution to Estimate Extreme Significant Wave Height in The Banda Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nursamsiah; Nugroho Sugianto, Denny; Suprijanto, Jusup; Munasik; Yulianto, Bambang

2018-02-01

The information of extreme wave height return level was required for maritime planning and management. The recommendation methods in analyzing extreme wave were better distributed by Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Seasonal variation was often considered in the extreme wave model. This research aims to identify the best model of GPD by considering a seasonal variation of the extreme wave. By using percentile 95 % as the threshold of extreme significant wave height, the seasonal GPD and non-seasonal GPD fitted. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to identify the goodness of fit of the GPD model. The return value from seasonal and non-seasonal GPD was compared with the definition of return value as criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test result shows that GPD fits data very well both seasonal and non-seasonal model. The seasonal return value gives better information about the wave height characteristics.

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

Comparative evaluation of the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 versus the AR4 CMIP3 model ensembles for regional precipitation and their extremes over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolen, J.; Kodra, E. A.; Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

The assertion that higher-resolution experiments or more sophisticated process models within the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 suite of global climate model ensembles improves precipitation projections over the IPCC AR4 CMIP3 suite remains a hypothesis that needs to be rigorously tested. The questions are particularly important for local to regional assessments at scales relevant for the management of critical infrastructures and key resources, particularly for the attributes of sever precipitation events, for example, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation. Our case study is South America, where precipitation and their extremes play a central role in sustaining natural, built and human systems. To test the hypothesis that CMIP5 improves over CMIP3 in this regard, spatial and temporal measures of prediction skill are constructed and computed by comparing climate model hindcasts with the NCEP-II reanalysis data, considered here as surrogate observations, for the entire globe and for South America. In addition, gridded precipitation observations over South America based on rain gage measurements are considered. The results suggest that the utility of the next-generation of global climate models over the current generation needs to be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis before communicating to resource managers and policy makers.

Associations of office workers' objectively assessed occupational sitting, standing and stepping time with musculoskeletal symptoms.

PubMed

Coenen, Pieter; Healy, Genevieve N; Winkler, Elisabeth A H; Dunstan, David W; Owen, Neville; Moodie, Marj; LaMontagne, Anthony D; Eakin, Elizabeth A; O'Sullivan, Peter B; Straker, Leon M

2018-04-22

We examined the association of musculoskeletal symptoms (MSS) with workplace sitting, standing and stepping time, as well as sitting and standing time accumulation (i.e. usual bout duration of these activities), measured objectively with the activPAL3 monitor. Using baseline data from the Stand Up Victoria trial (216 office workers, 14 workplaces), cross-sectional associations of occupational activities with self-reported MSS (low-back, upper and lower extremity symptoms in the last three months) were examined using probit regression, correcting for clustering and adjusting for confounders. Sitting bout duration was significantly (p < 0.05) associated, non-linearly, with MSS, such that those in the middle tertile displayed the highest prevalence of upper extremity symptoms. Other associations were non-significant but sometimes involved large differences in symptom prevalence (e.g. 38%) by activity. Though causation is unclear, these non-linear associations suggest that sitting and its alternatives (i.e. standing and stepping) interact with MSS and this should be considered when designing safe work systems. Practitioner summary: We studied associations of objectively assessed occupational activities with musculoskeletal symptoms in office workers. Workers who accumulated longer sitting bouts reported fewer upper extremity symptoms. Total activity duration was not significantly associated with musculoskeletal symptoms. We underline the importance of considering total volumes and patterns of activity time in musculoskeletal research.

Importance of mental performance in parental choice of food for children aged 4-10 years: a study in four European countries.

PubMed

Gage, Heather; Egan, Bernadette; Williams, Peter; Brands, Brigitte; Györei, Eszter; López-Robles, Juan-Carlos; Campoy, Cristina; Decsi, Tamas; Koletzko, Berthold; Raats, Monique

2017-04-01

Typically, attention focuses on how nutrition affects physical health. The present study investigated the importance that parents attach to the impact of diet on mental performance when choosing food for their child. Questionnaire. Four European countries. Parents of children aged 4-10 years (n 1574): England (n 397), Germany (n 389), Hungary (n 398) and Spain (n 390). Most parents (80-85 %) considered the effect of food on four elements of mental performance (child's ability to learn, attention, behaviour, mood) to be moderately, very, extremely (v. slightly, not at all) important in food choices; over 90 % considered healthiness of food and making food appealing to their child important; 79·8 % cost; 76·8 % convenience. Belief that food affects mental performance was 57·4 % (ability to learn), 60·5 % (attention); less than 40 % of parents agreed they were aware which foods had an effect. Parents with lower general interest in healthy eating were less likely to consider the effect of food on mental performance elements as important. Respondents from Germany were more likely to rate mental performance as important (except behaviour); those in Hungary less likely. The most important influence on parents' decisions about feeding their child was their own experience, except Spain, where family/friends/health professionals were more important. Nutrition affects brain development and cognitive functioning. Low prioritisation of the effect of food on mental performance indicates potential for educating parents.

Production of extreme-purity aluminum and silicon by fractional crystallization processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawless, R. K.; Troup, R. L.; Meier, D. L.; Rohatgi, A.

1988-06-01

Large scale fractional crystallization is used commercially at Alcoa to produce extreme purity aluminum (99.999+% Al). The primary market is sputtering targets used to make interconnects for integrated circuits. For some applications the impurities uranium and thorium are reduced to less than 1 ppbw to avoid "soft errors" associated with α particle emission. The crystallization process achieves segregation coefficients which are close to theoretical at normal yields, and this, coupled with the scale of the units, allows practical production of this material. The silicon purification process involves crystallization of Si from molten aluminum alloys containing about 30% silicon. The crystallites from this process are further treated to remove residual Al and an extreme purity ingot is obtained. This material is considered suitable for single crystal or ribbon type photovoltaic cells and for certain IC applications, including highly doped substrates used for epitaxial growth. In production of both extreme purity Al and Si, impurities are rejected to the remaining melt as the crystals form and some separation is achieved by draining this downgraded melt from the unit. Purification of this downgrade by crystallization has also been demonstrated for both systems and is important for achieving high recoveries.

Psychotherapy. Sublimation and the psychodynamics of birding.

PubMed

Clemens, Norman A

2012-07-01

An adventure in extreme birding prompted the psychoanalyst author to reflect on "why do people do this?" Like myriad human interests, vocations, and avocations, the activity of bird watching is a socially acceptable activity that is the final pathway for multiple motivations that are likely to have a long history in the individual's development. It may have origins in basic survival skills. Various psychological defense mechanisms may be involved, the most mature and successful one being sublimation. Success of a defense-like sublimation may be viewed in terms of freedom from anxiety or from obsessive extremes that interfere with the individual's wellbeing, important relationships, or physical or financial health. The author considers whether the characters in the film The Big Year exemplify such success or the lack of it.

Critical mass flux for flaming ignition of dead, dry wood as a function of external radiant heat flux and oxidizer flow velocity

Treesearch

Sara McAllister; Mark Finney; Jack Cohen

2010-01-01

Extreme weather often contributes to crown fires, where the fire spreads from one tree crown to the next as a series of piloted ignitions. An important aspect in predicting crown fires is understanding the ignition of fuel particles. The ignition criterion considered in this work is the critical mass flux criterion – that a sufficient amount of pyrolysis gases must be...

Evidence for extreme partitioning of copper into a magmatic vapor phase.

PubMed

Lowenstern, J B; Mahood, G A; Rivers, M L; Sutton, S R

1991-06-07

The discovery of copper sulfides in carbon dioxide- and chlorine-bearing bubbles in phenocryst-hosted melt inclusions shows that copper resides in a vapor phase in some shallow magma chambers. Copper is several hundred times more concentrated in magmatic vapor than in coexisting pantellerite melt. The volatile behavior of copper should be considered when modeling the volcanogenic contribution of metals to the atmosphere and may be important in the formation of copper porphyry ore deposits.

Powder Lot Variations: A Case Study with H4831 - Hodgdon Extreme

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-30

7.62x39 mm. Long range applications also require smaller variations in muzzle velocity from shot to shot, with variations in ambient temperature, with... flash hole and case neck with appropriate tools. Cleaning brass in stainless tumbling media is important to consistency. For example, we have...likely pressure variations, consider that QuickLoad V3.6 predicts a muzzle velocity of 3174 ft/s and a peak pressure of 54371 psi for 79 grains of

Evolution of precipitation extremes in two large ensembles of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, Jean-Luc; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume; Brissette, François; Ludwig, Ralf; Frigon, Anne; Leduc, Martin; Turcotte, Richard

2017-04-01

Recent studies project significant changes in the future distribution of precipitation extremes due to global warming. It is likely that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in a future climate and that extreme events will be more frequent. In this work, annual maxima daily precipitation series from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 2.8°x2.8°) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 1°x1°) are used to investigate extreme precipitation over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods. The use of these ensembles results in respectively 1 500 (30 years x 50 members) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. These large datasets allow the computation of empirical daily extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods. Using the CanESM2 and CESM1 large ensembles, extreme daily precipitation with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed in historical and future periods to assess the impact of climate change. Results indicate that daily precipitation extremes generally increase in the future over most land grid points and that these increases will also impact the 100-year extreme daily precipitation. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety. Estimated increases in precipitation associated to very extreme precipitation events (e.g. 100 years) will drastically change the likelihood of flooding and their extent in future climate. These results, although interesting, need to be extended to sub-daily durations, relevant for urban flooding protection and urban infrastructure design (e.g. sewer networks, culverts). Models and simulations at finer spatial and temporal resolution are therefore needed.

Advance directives: survey of primary care patients.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, Rory; Mailo, Kevin; Angeles, Ricardo; Agarwal, Gina

2015-04-01

To establish the prevalence of patients with advance directives in a family practice, and to describe patients' perspectives on a family doctor's role in initiating discussions about advance directives. A self-administered patient questionnaire. A busy urban family medicine teaching clinic in Hamilton, Ont. A convenience sample of adult patients attending the clinic over the course of a typical business week. The prevalence of advance directives in the patient population was determined, and the patients' expectations regarding the role of their family doctors were elucidated. The survey population consisted of 800 participants (a response rate of 72.5%) well distributed across age groups; 19.7% had written advance directives and 43.8% had previously discussed the topic of advance directives, but only 4.3% of these discussions had occurred with family doctors. In 5.7% of cases, a family physician had raised the issue; 72.3% of respondents believed patients should initiate the discussion. Patients who considered advance directives extremely important were significantly more likely to want their family doctors to start the conversation (odds ratio 3.98; P < .05). Advance directives were not routinely addressed in the family practice. Most patients preferred to initiate the discussion of advance directives. However, patients who considered the subject extremely important wanted their family doctors to initiate the discussion. Copyright© the College of Family Physicians of Canada.

Mathematical aspects of assessing extreme events for the safety of nuclear plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potempski, Slawomir; Borysiewicz, Mieczyslaw

2015-04-01

In the paper the review of mathematical methodologies applied for assessing low frequencies of rare natural events like earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes or tornadoes, floods (in particular flash floods and surge storms), lightning, solar flares, etc., will be given in the perspective of the safety assessment of nuclear plants. The statistical methods are usually based on the extreme value theory, which deals with the analysis of extreme deviation from the median (or the mean). In this respect application of various mathematical tools can be useful, like: the extreme value theorem of Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko leading to possible choices of general extreme value distributions, or the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem for tail fitting, or the methods related to large deviation theory. In the paper the most important stochastic distributions relevant for performing rare events statistical analysis will be presented. This concerns, for example, the analysis of the data with the annual extreme values (maxima - "Annual Maxima Series" or minima), or the peak values, exceeding given thresholds at some periods of interest ("Peak Over Threshold"), or the estimation of the size of exceedance. Despite of the fact that there is a lack of sufficient statistical data directly containing rare events, in some cases it is still possible to extract useful information from existing larger data sets. As an example one can consider some data sets available from the web sites for floods, earthquakes or generally natural hazards. Some aspects of such data sets will be also presented taking into account their usefulness for the practical assessment of risk for nuclear power plants coming from extreme weather conditions.

Academic and Resident Radiation Oncologists' Attitudes and Intentions Regarding Radiation Therapy near the End of Life.

PubMed

Lloyd, Shane; Dosoretz, Arie P; Yu, James B; Evans, Suzanne B; Decker, Roy H

2016-02-01

There has been increasing scrutiny about cancer treatment for patients very near the end of life (EoL), yet a substantial number receive palliative radiation therapy (RT) in this setting. Our aim was to document the attitudes and intentions of thought leaders and trainees in giving RT near the EoL. We distributed an anonymous survey to 473 radiation oncologists and residents. The survey examined the clinical and psychosocial factors considered as well as intentions and expectations in the delivery of RT near the EoL. Factors surrounding unfinished treatment courses, and the formative factors that shape opinions about RT at the EoL were also explored. We received 139 responses (29%). Eighty-nine percent of respondents worked at academic institutions. The factors that respondents most often consider very or extremely important to offer RT near the EoL were the preference of the patient to be treated (94%), the ability to tolerate treatment (88%), and palliative intent (70%). After instances when their patients were unable to complete treatment near the EoL, 42% of respondents said they would prescribe a shorter treatment the next time they see a similar patient. Personal experience (71%) was most often listed as very or extremely important in shaping their opinions about RT near the EoL. Survey respondents, 89% of whom were academic radiation oncologists, have a positive view of palliative RT near the EoL. They favor shorter fractionation for patients near the EoL. Personal experience is most important in shaping practices and attitudes.

On the edge of a deep biosphere: Real animals in extreme environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childress, James J.; Fisher, Charles F.; Felbeck, Horst; Girguis, Peter

This paper considers the possibility of animals living in a subsurface environment on the global mid-ocean ridge system. It considers the possible environments and looks at the possibilities of animal inhabitants of the subsurface biosphere based on adaptations of animals to other extreme habitats. We conclude that there are known bridging inhabitants of the subsurface biosphere, that part-time inhabitants are extremely likely, and that there could be full-time inhabitants if conditions are stable within the tolerance limits of metazoans for time periods of months.

[Child abuse: a world problem].

PubMed

Santana-Tavira, R; Sánchez-Ahedo, R; Herrera-Basto, E

1998-01-01

Several problems are encountered in the study of child abuse: ignorance of its real proportions, deep cultural and historical roots, diversity of opinion as to its definition and classification and, finally, very diverse considerations on its repercussions and therapeutic management. The present study approaches child abuse from its historical precedents, its classifications, definitions and epidemiology. In addition, repercussions are reviewed, and treatment alternatives considered which are held as fundamental to confront this alarmingly increasing phenomenon. It is important to unify criteria as to the definition and classification of scientific information surrounding demographic data which, in the end, will situate the problem, the progress related to its causes, diagnosis, preventive measures and treatment. It is extremely important to prevent child abuse by all possible means, since this harm is reflected in the adult life of the child. Various classifications are considered, as well as characteristics of the abuser and of the abused.

Multiaxial and thermomechanical fatigue considerations in damage tolerant design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leese, G. E.; Bill, R. C.

1985-01-01

In considering damage tolerant design concepts for gas turbine hot section components, several challenging concerns arise: Complex multiaxial loading situations are encountered; Thermomechanical fatigue loading involving very wide temperature ranges is imposed on components; Some hot section materials are extremely anisotropic; and coatings and environmental interactions play an important role in crack propagation. The effects of multiaxiality and thermomechanical fatigue are considered from the standpoint of their impact on damage tolerant design concepts. Recently obtained research results as well as results from the open literature are examined and their implications for damage tolerant design are discussed. Three important needs required to advance analytical capabilities in support of damage tolerant design become readily apparent: (1) a theoretical basis to account for the effect of nonproportional loading (mechanical and mechanical/thermal); (2) the development of practical crack growth parameters that are applicable to thermomechanical fatigue situations; and (3) the development of crack growth models that address multiple crack failures.

Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection: A Bayesian experimental design approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongqiao; Lin, Guang; Li, Jinglai

2016-05-01

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify the probability of undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection and failure probability estimation. In particular, we consider the situation that the underlying computer models are extremely expensive, and in this setting, determining the sampling points in the state space is of essential importance. We formulate the problem as an optimal experimental design for Bayesian inferences of the limit state (i.e., the failure boundary) and propose an efficient numerical scheme to solve the resulting optimization problem. In particular, the proposed limit-state inference method is capable of determining multiple sampling points at a time, and thus it is well suited for problems where multiple computer simulations can be performed in parallel. The accuracy and performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by both academic and practical examples.

Time- & Load-Dependence of Triboelectric Effect.

PubMed

Pan, Shuaihang; Yin, Nian; Zhang, Zhinan

2018-02-06

Time- and load-dependent friction behavior is considered as important for a long time, due to its time-evolution and force-driving characteristics. However, its electronic behavior, mainly considered in triboelectric effect, has almost never been given the full attention and analyses from the above point of view. In this paper, by experimenting with fcc-latticed aluminum and copper friction pairs, the mechanical and electronic behaviors of friction contacts are correlated by time and load analyses, and the behind physical understanding is provided. Most importantly, the difference of "response lag" in force and electricity is discussed, the extreme points of coefficient of friction with the increasing normal loads are observed and explained with the surface properties and dynamical behaviors (i.e. wear), and the micro and macro theories linking tribo-electricity to normal load and wear (i.e. the physical explanation between coupled electrical and mechanical phenomena) are successfully developed and tested.

GIS as a tool for efficient management of transport streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zatserkovnyi, V. I.; Kobrin, O. V.

2015-10-01

The transport network, which is an ideal object for the automation and the increase of efficiency using geographic information systems (GIS), is considered. The transport problems, which have a lot of mathematical models of the traffic flow for their solution, are enumerated. GIS analysis tools that allow one to build optimal routes in the real road network with its capabilities and limitations are presented. They can solve the extremely important problem of modern Ukraine - the rapid increase of the number of cars and the glut of road network vehicles. The intelligent transport systems, which are created and developed on the basis of GPS, GIS, modern communications and telecommunications facilities, are considered.

The spatial return level of aggregated hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaffie, Mardhiyyah; Eli, Annazirin; Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2015-07-01

This paper is intended to ascertain the spatial pattern of extreme rainfall distribution in Peninsular Malaysia at several short time intervals, i.e., on hourly basis. Motivation of this research is due to historical records of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, whereby many hydrological disasters at this region occur within a short time period. The hourly periods considered are 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h. Many previous hydrological studies dealt with daily rainfall data; thus, this study enables comparison to be made on the estimated performances between daily and hourly rainfall data analyses so as to identify the impact of extreme rainfall at a shorter time scale. Return levels based on the time aggregate considered are also computed. Parameter estimation using L-moment method for four probability distributions, namely, the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson type III (PE3) distributions were conducted. Aided with the L-moment diagram test and mean square error (MSE) test, GLO was found to be the most appropriate distribution to represent the extreme rainfall data. At most time intervals (10, 50, and 100 years), the spatial patterns revealed that the rainfall distribution across the peninsula differ for 1- and 24-h extreme rainfalls. The outcomes of this study would provide additional information regarding patterns of extreme rainfall in Malaysia which may not be detected when considering only a higher time scale such as daily; thus, appropriate measures for shorter time scales of extreme rainfall can be planned. The implementation of such measures would be beneficial to the authorities to reduce the impact of any disastrous natural event.

Perceived happiness of college students measured by Maslow's hierarchy of needs.

PubMed

Pettijohn, T F; Pettijohn, T F

1996-12-01

Broad categories have been suggested for the events which contribute to happiness. In 1943 Maslow might have argued that people are happy when they meet or continue to meet their basic needs in his hierarchy of needs. A survey was given to 150 college students to assess which of Maslow's levels of need is perceived to be most important to happiness. Falling or staying in love was chosen significantly more often than the other choices by undergraduates of both genders. These results suggest that love is considered to be an extremely important contributor to the feeling of happiness among college students.

Factors affecting the thermal environment of Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) cover sites in the Central Mojave Desert during periods of temperature extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Jeremy S.; Berry, Kristin H.; Miller, David; Carlson, Andrea S.

2015-01-01

Agassiz's Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) spend >95% of their lives underground in cover sites that serve as thermal buffers from temperatures, which can fluctuate >40°C on a daily and seasonal basis. We monitored temperatures at 30 active tortoise cover sites within the Soda Mountains, San Bernardino County, California, from February 2004 to September 2006. Cover sites varied in type and structural characteristics, including opening height and width, soil cover depth over the opening, aspect, tunnel length, and surficial geology. We focused our analyses on periods of extreme temperature: in summer, between July 1 and September 1, and winter, between November 1 and February 15. With the use of multivariate regression tree analyses, we found cover-site temperatures were influenced largely by tunnel length and subsequently opening width and soil cover. Linear regression models further showed that increasing tunnel length increased temperature stability and dampened seasonal temperature extremes. Climate change models predict increased warming for southwestern North America. Cover sites that buffer temperature extremes and fluctuations will become increasingly important for survival of tortoises. In planning future translocation projects and conservation efforts, decision makers should consider habitats with terrain and underlying substrate that sustain cover sites with long tunnels and expanded openings for tortoises living under temperature extremes similar to those described here or as projected in the future.

Spatiotemporal analysis the precipitation extremes affecting rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jin; Islam, A. R. M. Towfiqul; Zhang, Fangmin; Hu, Zhenghua

2017-10-01

With the increasing risk of meteorological disasters, it is of great importance to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation extremes and its possible impact on rice productivity, especially in Jiangsu province, southeast China. In this study, we explored the relationships between rice yield and extreme precipitation indices using Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt's test, and K-means clustering methods. This study used 10 extreme precipitation indices of the rice growing season (May to October) based on the daily precipitation records and rice yield data at 52 meteorological stations during 1961-2012 in Jiangsu province. The main findings were as follows: (1) correlation results indicated that precipitation extremes occurred in the months of July, August, and October, which had noticeable adverse effects on rice yield; (2) the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August and October should be considered as three key indicators for the precipitation-induced rice meteorological disasters; and (3) most of the stations showed an increasing trends for the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August, while the number of rainy days of October in all the stations demonstrated a decreasing trend. Moreover, Jiangsu province could be divided into two major sub-regions such as north and south areas with different temporal variations in the three key indicators.

Kinematic determinants of weapon velocity during the fencing lunge in experienced épée fencers.

PubMed

Bottoms, Lindsay; Greenhalgh, Andrew; Sinclair, Jonathan

2013-01-01

The lunge is the most common attack in fencing, however there is currently a paucity of published research investigating the kinematics of this movement. The aim of this study was to investigate if kinematics measured during the épée fencing lunge had a significant effect on sword velocity at touch and whether there were any key movement tactics that produced the maximum velocity. Lower extremity kinematic data were obtained from fourteen right handed club épée fencers using a 3D motion capture system as they completed simulated lunges. A forward stepwise multiple linear regression was performed on the data. The overall regression model yielded an Adj R2 of 0.74, p ≤ 0.01. The results show that the rear lower extremity's knee range of motion, peak hip flexion and the fore lower extremity's peak hip flexion all in the sagittal plane were significant predictors of sword velocity. The results indicate that flexion of the rear extremity's knee is an important predictor, suggesting that the fencer sits low in their stance to produce power during the lunge. Furthermore it would appear that the magnitude of peak flexion of the fore extremity's hip was a significant indicator of sword velocity suggesting movement of fore limbs should also be considered in lunge performance.

Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Eugene; Jared, Alissa; Mahat, Vinod

The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitationmore » intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.« less

Extreme temperature trends in major cropping systems and their relation to agricultural land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N. D.; Butler, E. E.; McKinnon, K. A.; Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; Siebert, S.; Holbrook, N. M.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

High temperature extremes during the growing season can reduce agricultural production. At the same time, agricultural practices can modify temperatures by altering the surface energy budget. Here we investigate growing season climate trends in major cropping systems and their relationship with agricultural land use change. In the US Midwest, 100-year trends exhibit a transition towards more favorable conditions, with cooler summer temperature extremes and increased precipitation. Statistically significant correspondence is found between the cooling pattern and trends in cropland intensification, as well as with trends towards greater irrigated land over a small subset of the domain. Land conversion to cropland, often considered an important influence on historical temperatures, is not significantly associated with cooling. We suggest that cooling is primarily associated with agricultural intensification increasing the potential for evapotranspiration, consistent with our finding that cooling trends are greatest for the highest temperature percentiles, and that increased evapotranspiration generally leads to greater precipitation. Temperatures over rainfed croplands show no cooling trend during drought conditions, consistent with evapotranspiration requiring adequate soil moisture, and implying that modern drought events feature greater warming as baseline cooler temperatures revert to historically high extremes. Preliminary results indicate these relationships between temperature extremes, irrigation, and intensification are also observed in other major summer cropping systems, including northeast China, Argentina, and the Canadian Prairies.

Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2007-12-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

Extreme Events in Urban Streams Leading to Extreme Temperatures in Birmingham, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangecroft, S.; Croghan, D.; Van Loon, A.; Sadler, J. P.; Hannah, D. M.

2016-12-01

Extreme flows and high water temperature events act as critical stressors on the ecological health of rivers. Urban headwater streams are considered particularly vulnerable to the effects of these extreme events. Despite this, such catchments remain poorly characterised and the effect of differences in land use is rarely quantified, especially in relation to water temperature. Thus a key research gap has emerged in understanding the patterns of water temperature during extreme events within contrasting urban, headwater catchments. We studied the headwaters of two bordering urban catchments of contrasting land use within Birmingham, UK. To characterise response to extreme events, precipitation and flow were analysed for the period of 1970-2016. To analyse the effects of extreme events on water temperature, 10 temperature loggers recording at 15 minute intervals were placed within each catchment covering a range of land use for the period May 2016 - present. During peak over threshold flood events higher average peaks were observed in the less urbanised catchment; however highest maximum flow peaks took place in the more densely urbanised catchment. Very similar average drought durations were observed between the two catchments with average flow drought durations of 27 days in the most urbanised catchment, and 29 in the less urbanised catchment. Flashier water temperature regimes were observed within the more urbanised catchment and increases of up to 5 degrees were apparent within 30 minutes during certain storms at the most upstream sites. Only in the most extreme events did the more densely urban stream appear more susceptible to both extreme high flows and extreme water temperature events, possibly resultant from overland flow emerging as the dominant flow pathway during intense precipitation events. Water temperature surges tended to be highly spatially variable indicating the importance of local land use. During smaller events, water temperature was less changeable and spatially variable, suggesting that overland flow may not the dominant flow pathway in such events. During drought events, the effect of catchment land use on water temperature was less apparent.

Stability of controlled inverted pendulum under permanent horizontal perturbations of the supporting point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrov, V. V.; Reyes-Romero, M.; Sidorenko, G. Yu.; Temoltzi-Auila, R.

2010-04-01

We consider the problem of choosing a test perturbation of a movable foundation of a single-link inverted pendulum so as to test a vestibular prosthesis prototype located at the top of this pendulum in an extreme situation. The obtained results permit concluding that the information transmitted from otolithic organs of the human vestibular system to muscles of the locomotor apparatus is very important and improves the quality of stabilization of the human vertical posture preventing the possible fall.

Juvenile granulosa cell tumor of testis: case report and review of literature.

PubMed

Dudani, Rajesh; Giordano, Lisa; Sultania, Priyanka; Jha, Kamlesh; Florens, Adrian; Joseph, Tessy

2008-04-01

Juvenile granulosa cell tumor (JGCT) of testis is extremely rare in childhood. It is considered a benign entity because metastasis has never been reported. Testicular-sparing surgery is the recommended treatment. We reported this case in a newborn who presented with unilateral scrotal swelling. Histopathology and immunohistochemistry confirmed JGCT. Follow-up at 6 months after surgery did not show any recurrence. Even though JGCT is very rare in childhood, it is one of the important differentials of newborn scrotal mass.

BIOPHYSICS. Comment on "Extreme electric fields power catalysis in the active site of ketosteroid isomerase".

PubMed

Chen, Deliang; Savidge, Tor

2015-08-28

Fried et al. (Reports, 19 December 2014, p. 1510) demonstrate electric field-dependent acceleration of biological catalysis using ketosteroid isomerase as a prototypic example. These findings were not extended to aqueous solution because water by itself has field fluctuations that are too large and fast to provide a catalytic effect. Given physiological context, when water electrostatic interactions are considered, electric fields play a less important role in the catalysis. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Hyperthyroidism

PubMed Central

Whitner, Tanya E.; Hudson, Christopher J.; Smith, Timothy D.; Littmann, Laszlo

2005-01-01

Although hyperthyroidism has many signs and symptoms, right heart failure can occasionally be the main presenting symptom. We describe the case of a previously healthy 42-year-old woman whose chief complaint was progressive bilateral lower extremity edema. The echocardiogram revealed right atrial dilatation and moderate-to-severe tricuspid regurgitation. Results of laboratory studies were consistent with hyperthyroidism. Thyroid ablation resulted in permanent resolution of symptoms and resolution of tricuspid incompetence on echocardiography. In a case of isolated, unexplained tricuspid regurgitation, it is important to consider indolent hyperthyroidism in the differential diagnosis. PMID:16107128

The long-range shelling of Paris and physical chemistry problems of extremely long-range firing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stettbacher, A.

1986-04-01

The 128-km long-range artillery shelling of Paris is discussed considering its physical and chemical make-up from the vantage point of the technology in 1919. It compares this shelling with a hypothetical 240-km shelling and concludes that the most important influence on shelling range distance to be air resistance. The amount of air resistance and the resulting velocity deceleration depend on the air's density and the shell's velocity and configuration.

Don't forget about syphilis.

PubMed

Chacon, Anna H

2015-08-01

Syphilis has extremely variable manifestations that produce an extremely broad differential diagnosis. Care must be taken to consider syphilis in dermatologic and other systemic disorders as is relevant.

Geological hazards: from early warning systems to public health toolkits.

PubMed

Samarasundera, Edgar; Hansell, Anna; Leibovici, Didier; Horwell, Claire J; Anand, Suchith; Oppenheimer, Clive

2014-11-01

Extreme geological events, such as earthquakes, are a significant global concern and sometimes their consequences can be devastating. Geographic information plays a critical role in health protection regarding hazards, and there are a range of initiatives using geographic information to communicate risk as well as to support early warning systems operated by geologists. Nevertheless we consider there to remain shortfalls in translating information on extreme geological events into health protection tools, and suggest that social scientists have an important role to play in aiding the development of a new generation of toolkits aimed at public health practitioners. This viewpoint piece reviews the state of the art in this domain and proposes potential contributions different stakeholder groups, including social scientists, could bring to the development of new toolkits. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does infantile abduction deficit indicate duane retraction syndrome until disproven?

PubMed

Kim, Jae Hyoung; Hwang, Jeong-Min

2014-11-01

Duane retraction syndrome consists of abduction deficit and palpebral fissure narrowing, upshoots, or downshoots on adduction. Infants with abduction deficit should be considered to have Duane retraction syndrome until disproven, because congenital abducens nerve palsy is extremely rare. The abducens nerve on the affected side is absent in type 1 Duane retraction syndrome and in some type 3 patients. The authors present a 7-month-old girl who showed limitation of abduction simulating Duane retraction syndrome. High-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed atrophic lateral rectus and present abducens nerve. This report is important because this case showed that congenital abducens nerve palsy exists, although it is extremely rare, and high-resolution MRI could be pivotal for the differentiation of Duane retraction syndrome and congenital abducens nerve palsy in infancy. © The Author(s) 2014.

The great outdoors: how a green exercise environment can benefit all

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The studies of human and environment interactions usually consider the extremes of environment on individuals or how humans affect the environment. It is well known that physical activity improves both physiological and psychological well-being, but further evidence is required to ascertain how different environments influence and shape health. This review considers the declining levels of physical activity, particularly in the Western world, and how the environment may help motivate and facilitate physical activity. It also addresses the additional physiological and mental health benefits that appear to occur when exercise is performed in an outdoor environment. However, people’s connectedness to nature appears to be changing and this has important implications as to how humans are now interacting with nature. Barriers exist, and it is important that these are considered when discussing how to make exercise in the outdoors accessible and beneficial for all. The synergistic combination of exercise and exposure to nature and thus the ‘great outdoors’ could be used as a powerful tool to help fight the growing incidence of both physical inactivity and non-communicable disease. PMID:23849478

The great outdoors: how a green exercise environment can benefit all.

PubMed

Gladwell, Valerie F; Brown, Daniel K; Wood, Carly; Sandercock, Gavin R; Barton, Jo L

2013-01-03

The studies of human and environment interactions usually consider the extremes of environment on individuals or how humans affect the environment. It is well known that physical activity improves both physiological and psychological well-being, but further evidence is required to ascertain how different environments influence and shape health. This review considers the declining levels of physical activity, particularly in the Western world, and how the environment may help motivate and facilitate physical activity. It also addresses the additional physiological and mental health benefits that appear to occur when exercise is performed in an outdoor environment. However, people's connectedness to nature appears to be changing and this has important implications as to how humans are now interacting with nature. Barriers exist, and it is important that these are considered when discussing how to make exercise in the outdoors accessible and beneficial for all. The synergistic combination of exercise and exposure to nature and thus the 'great outdoors' could be used as a powerful tool to help fight the growing incidence of both physical inactivity and non-communicable disease.

Prokaryotic diversity and community composition in the Salar de Uyuni, a large scale, chaotropic salt flat.

PubMed

dC Rubin, Sergio S; Marín, Irma; Gómez, Manuel J; Morales, Eduardo A; Zekker, Ivar; San Martín-Uriz, Patxi; Rodríguez, Nuria; Amils, Ricardo

2017-09-01

Salar de Uyuni (SdU), with a geological history that reflects 50 000 years of climate change, is the largest hypersaline salt flat on Earth and is estimated to be the biggest lithium reservoir in the world. Its salinity reaches saturation levels for NaCl, a kosmotropic salt, and high concentrations of MgCL 2 and LiCl, both salts considered important chaotrophic stressors. In addition, extreme temperatures, anoxic conditions, high UV irradiance, high albedo and extremely low concentrations of phosphorous, make SdU a unique natural extreme environment in which to contrast hypotheses about limiting factors of life diversification. Geophysical studies of brines from different sampling stations show that water activity is rather constant along SdU. Geochemical measurements show significant differences in magnesium concentration, ranging from 0.2 to 2M. This work analyses the prokaryotic diversity and community structure at four SdU sampling stations, selected according to their location and ionic composition. Prokaryotic communities were composed of both Archaea (with members of the classes Halobacteria, Thermoplasmata and Nanohaloarchaea, from the Euryarchaeota and Nanohaloarcheota phyla respectively) and Bacteria (mainly belonging to Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria phyla). The important differences in composition of microbial communities inversely correlate with Mg 2+ concentration, suggesting that prokaryotic diversity at SdU is chaotropic dependent. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Environmental risk assessment of Polish wastewater treatment plant activity.

PubMed

Kudłak, Błażej; Wieczerzak, Monika; Yotova, Galina; Tsakovski, Stefan; Simeonov, Vasil; Namieśnik, Jacek

2016-10-01

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) play an extremely important role in shaping modern society's environmental well-being and awareness, however only well operated and supervised systems can be considered as environmentally sustainable. For this reason, an attempt was undertaken to assess the environmental burden posed by WWTPs in major Polish cities by collecting water samples prior to and just after wastewater release points. Both classical and biological methods (Microtox(®), Ostracodtoxkit F™ and comet assay) were utilized to assess environmental impact of given WWTP. Interestingly, in some cases, water quality improvement indicated as a toxicity decrement toward one of the bio-indicating organisms makes water worse for others in the systems. This fact is particularly noticeable in case of Silesian cities where heavy industry and high population density is present. It proves that WWTP should undergo individual evaluation of pollutant removal efficiency and tuned to selectively remove pollutants of highest risk to surrounding regional ecosystems. Biotests again proved to be an extremely important tool to fully assess the impact of environmental stressors on water bodies receiving effluents from WWTPs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinematic and kinetic synergies of the lower extremities during the pull in olympic weightlifting.

PubMed

Kipp, Kristof; Redden, Josh; Sabick, Michelle; Harris, Chad

2012-07-01

The purpose of this study was to identify multijoint lower extremity kinematic and kinetic synergies in weightlifting and compare these synergies between joints and across different external loads. Subjects completed sets of the clean exercise at loads equal to 65, 75, and 85% of their estimated 1-RM. Functional data analysis was used to extract principal component functions (PCF's) for hip, knee, and ankle joint angles and moments of force during the pull phase of the clean at all loads. The PCF scores were then compared between joints and across loads to determine how much of each PCF was present at each joint and how it differed across loads. The analyses extracted two kinematic and four kinetic PCF's. The statistical comparisons indicated that all kinematic and two of the four kinetic PCF's did not differ across load, but scaled according to joint function. The PCF's captured a set of joint- and load-specific synergies that quantified biomechanical function of the lower extremity during Olympic weightlifting and revealed important technical characteristics that should be considered in sports training and future research.

[Severe injuries from falls on the same level].

PubMed

Parreira, José Gustavo; Vianna, André Mazzini Ferreira; Cardoso, Gabriel Silva; Karakhanian, Walter Zavem; Calil, Daniela; Perlingeiro, Jaqueline A Giannini; Soldá, Silvia C; Assef, José Cesar

2010-01-01

Assess characteristics of trauma patients who sustained falls from their own height, more specifically focusing on presence of severe injuries, diagnosis and treatment. Retrospective study including all adult blunt trauma patients admitted in the emergency room in a period of 9 months. Lesions with AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale)>3 were considered "severe". Variables were compared between victims of fall from their own height (group I) and other blunt trauma mechanisms (group II). Student's t, chi square and Fisher exact tests were used for statistical analysis, considering p<0.05 as significant. Of the 1993 trauma patients included, 305 (15%) were victims of falls from their own height. In group I, mean age was 52.2 ± 20.8 years and 64.8% were male. Injuries in the head segment were the most frequently observed (62.2%), followed by injuries in the extremities (22.3%), thorax (1.3%) and abdomen (0.7%). Severe injuries (AIS>3) were more frequent in the head (8.9%), followed by extremities (4.9%). In group I, craniotomies were needed in 2.3%. By comparing groups, we observed that victims of falls from their own height had significantly higher mean age, higher mean systolic blood pressure, and higher head AIS mean, as well as lower ISS mean, thorax AIS mean, abdomen AIS mean and extremities AIS mean. Importance of the trauma mechanism in victims of falls from own height should be emphasized due to a considerable possibility of occult severe injuries, mainly in the cephalic segment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilcox, Kevin R.; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A.

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitationmore » changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. Here, we used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. Finally, this highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.« less

Increased Spatial Variability and Intensification of Extreme Monsoon Rainfall due to Urbanization.

PubMed

Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Mathew, Micky; Devanand, Anjana; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

2018-03-02

While satellite data provides a strong robust signature of urban feedback on extreme precipitation; urbanization signal is often not so prominent with station level data. To investigate this, we select the case study of Mumbai, India and perform a high resolution (1 km) numerical study with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for eight extreme rainfall days during 2014-2015. The WRF model is coupled with two different urban schemes, the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-SUCM), Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-MUCM). The differences between the WRF-MUCM and WRF-SUCM indicate the importance of the structure and characteristics of urban canopy on modifications in precipitation. The WRF-MUCM simulations resemble the observed distributed rainfall. WRF-MUCM also produces intensified rainfall as compared to the WRF-SUCM and WRF-NoUCM (without UCM). The intensification in rainfall is however prominent at few pockets of urban regions, that is seen in increased spatial variability. We find that the correlation of precipitation across stations within the city falls below statistical significance at a distance greater than 10 km. Urban signature on extreme precipitation will be reflected on station rainfall only when the stations are located inside the urban pockets having intensified precipitation, which needs to be considered in future analysis.

Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, Kristin; Baker, Daniel N.; Li, Xinlin; Zheng, Yihua; Glocer, Alex

2013-01-01

Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, C. B.; Stocker, T. F.; Barros, V. R.; Qin, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Midgley, P. M.

2011-12-01

The Summary for Policy Makers of the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation will be approved by the world governments in November 2011. The focus of the Special Report is on climate change and its role in altering the frequency, severity, and impact of extreme events or disasters, and on the costs of both impacts and the actions taken to prepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme events and disasters. The emphasis is on understanding the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, on recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and on managing the risks of disasters over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The assessment considers a broad suite of adaptations and explores the limits to adaptation. The assessment was designed to build durable links and foundations for partnerships between the stakeholder communities focused on climate change and those focused on disaster risk reduction. The Special Report begins with material that frames the issues, followed by an assessment of the reasons that communities are vulnerable. Two chapters assess the role of past and future climate change in altering extremes and the impact of these on the physical environment and human systems. Three chapters assess available knowledge on impacts and adaptation, with separate chapters considering the literature, stakeholder relationships, and potential policy tools relevant to the local, national, and international scales. Longer-term components of adaptation to weather and climate extremes and disasters are assessed in the context of moving toward sustainability. The final chapter provides case studies that integrate themes across several chapters or are so unique that they need to be considered separately.

25. Ischemic pain in the extremities and Raynaud's phenomenon.

PubMed

Devulder, Jacques; van Suijlekom, Hans; van Dongen, Robert; Diwan, Sudhir; Mekhail, Nagy; van Kleef, Maarten; Huygen, Frank

2011-01-01

Two important groups of disorders result from an insufficient blood supply to the extremities: critical vascular disease and the Raynaud's phenomenon. The latter can be subdivided into a primary and a secondary type. Critical ischemic disease is often caused by arteriosclerosis due to hypertension or diabetes. Primary Raynaud's is idiopathic and will be diagnosed as such if underlying systemic pathology has been excluded. Secondary Raynaud's is often a manifestation of a systemic disease. It is essential to try to establish a diagnosis as soon as possible in order to influence the evolution of the disease. A sympathetic nerve block can be considered in patients with critical ischemic vascular disease after extensive conservative treatment, preferably in the context of a study (2B±). If this has insufficient effect, spinal cord stimulation can be considered in a selected patient group (2B±). In view of the degree of invasiveness and the costs involved, this treatment should preferably be applied in the context of a study and with the use of transcutaneous pO(2) measurements. In case of primary Raynaud's, life style changes are the first step. Sympathectomy can be considered as a treatment of Raynaud's phenomenon (2C+), but only after multidisciplinary evaluation of the patient and in close consultation with the patient's rheumatologist, vascular surgeon or internist. © 2011 The Authors. Pain Practice © 2011 World Institute of Pain.

EVALUATION OF PROGNOSTIC FACTORS IN DECOMPENSATED LIVER CIRRHOSIS WITH ASCITES AND SPONTANEOUS BACTERIAL PERITONITIS.

PubMed

Dănulescu, Răzvana Munteanu; Stanciu, Carol; Trifan, Anca

2015-01-01

Mortality in spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) decreased significantly from 90% in 1970 to 10-30% today, but SBP still remains a complication with a poor prognosis. Although there are new preventive measures, such as early diagnosis and treatment with albumin, the introduction of new antibiotics, the prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis and SBP remains poor, with a mortality rate of 20-40%. The installation of an episode of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis reduces the survival rate at 1 year to 30% and to 20% at 2 years. In this context, the identification of patients with increased risk of death is extremely important in order to improve prognosis. The prospective study included 153 patients with cirrhosis admitted to the Institute of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Iaşi from 1 January to 31 December 2010, reevaluated during 2 years. Criteria for the diagnosis of SBP were the presence of a number > 250 PMN / mmc. The presence of ascites and/or upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGB) marks the decompensated cirrhosis. To assess the severity of cirrhosis, there were used Child-Pugh and MELD scores. Diagnostic paracentesis and ascites fluid cultures were performed in all hospitalized patients with ascites and also in case of signs and symptoms of SBP, before and after antibiotic treatment. Lack of response to empirical therapy was considered in those cases with a decrease in the number of neutrophils < 25% from baseline. Identification of patients with increased risk of death is extremely important to improve prognosis. In peripheral leukocytosis and in the ascites fluid, low hemoglobin can be considered predictors of mortality in patients with PBS. Child-Pugh score, increased levels of bilirubin and creatinine and hyponatremia are independent risk factors of mortality in patients with SBP. Bacteremia and lack of therapeutic response are independent risk factors of mortality associated with SBP. Recent history of variceal bleeding, severity of infection and the degree of hepatic and renal impairment influence short-term prognosis of patients with SBP. Identification of patients with increased risk of death is extremely important to improve prognosis. Therefore, it is important to identify prognostic factors in patients with bacterial infection and cirrhosis, in order to identify high risk patients and to prevent complications and death.

Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values and Evidence of Presence of Dragon King (DK) in Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, T.; Ramos, F.; Rempel, E. L.; Silva, S.; C-L Chian, A.

2017-12-01

The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions. Both models present a statistically significant positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon kings had previously been identified in time series of financial crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, bifurcation, crises or tipping points.

Obstetrics and gynaecology chief resident attitudes toward teaching junior residents under normal working conditions.

PubMed

Gil, Karen M; Savitski, Jennifer L; Bazan, Sara; Patterson, Laurene R; Kirven, Melissa

2009-09-01

This study aimed to identify factors that chief residents believe impact the teaching of junior residents under normal working conditions and the areas in which they believe education on the role of resident as teacher would be beneficial. Obstetrics and gynaecology (O&G) chief residents were asked to rate the importance of teaching various skills, how often conflict situations arose, and to identify training that would be helpful through a national web-based survey. An e-mail was sent to coordinators of the Residency Review Committee (RRC) O&G residency programmes with a request that they forward the link to their chief residents three times from January through March 2006. Responses were received from 204 postgraduate Year 4 (PGY4) residents (18% of all PGY4 residents) from 133 programmes (54% of all residency programmes) and 33 states. Teaching junior residents how to prioritise patient care and obtain critical information in an emergent situation was considered very to extremely important by 97%. Conflict situations with junior residents were reported to occur between one and five times by 41-58%; an additional 26-28% reported that these situations occurred six or more times. Residents felt it would be helpful to extremely helpful to have training in resolving conflicts that involved patient care (48-59%), as well as in resolving conflict among junior residents, communicating effectively with them and becoming an effective leader (65-78%). The skills that chief residents considered most important to teach junior residents involved direct patient care. Chief residents would like training in how to resolve conflict with, and among, junior residents, and in how to become an effective leader.

Challenges for Ecosystem Services Provided by Coral Reefs In the Face of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikuchi, R. K.; Elliff, C. I.

2014-12-01

Coral reefs provide many ecosystem services of which coastal populations are especially dependent upon, both in cases of extreme events and in daily life. However, adaptation to climate change is still relatively unknown territory regarding the ecosystem services provided by coastal environments, such as coral reefs. Management strategies usually consider climate change as a distant issue and rarely include ecosystem services in decision-making. Coral reefs are among the most vulnerable environments to climate change, considering the impact that increased ocean temperature and acidity have on the organisms that compose this ecosystem. If no actions are taken, the most likely scenario to occur will be of extreme decline in the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs. Loss of biodiversity due to the pressures of ocean warming and acidification will lead to increased price of seafood products, negative impact on food security, and ecological imbalances. Also, sea-level rise and fragile structures due to carbonate dissolution will increase vulnerability to storms, which can lead to shoreline erosion and ultimately threaten coastal communities. Both these conditions will undoubtedly affect recreation and tourism, which are often the most important use values in the case of coral reef systems. Adaptation strategies to climate change must take on an ecosystem-based approach with continuous monitoring programs, so that multiple ecosystem services are considered and not only retrospective trends are analyzed. Brazilian coral reefs have been monitored on a regular basis since 2000 and, considering that these marginal coral reefs of the eastern Atlantic are naturally under stressful conditions (e.g. high sedimentation rates), inshore reefs of Brazil, such as those in Tinharé-Boipeba, have shown lower vitality rates due to greater impacts from the proximity to the coastal area (e.g. pollution, overfishing, sediment run-off). This chronic negative impact must be addressed to increase resilience and guarantee the adaptation of this ecosystem to climate change. Thus, considering that the majority of the marine ecosystem services we benefit from are provided from coastal habitats, of which coral reefs play an important role, the challenge at hand is in fact the interaction between local factors and climate change

Penile anomalies in adolescence.

PubMed

Wood, Dan; Woodhouse, Christopher

2011-03-07

This article considers the impact and outcomes of both treatment and underlying condition of penile anomalies in adolescent males. Major congenital anomalies (such as exstrophy/epispadias) are discussed, including the psychological outcomes, common problems (such as corporal asymmetry, chordee, and scarring) in this group, and surgical assessment for potential surgical candidates. The emergence of new surgical techniques continues to improve outcomes and potentially raises patient expectations. The importance of balanced discussion in conditions such as micropenis, including multidisciplinary support for patients, is important in order to achieve appropriate treatment decisions. Topical treatments may be of value, but in extreme cases, phalloplasty is a valuable option for patients to consider. In buried penis, the importance of careful assessment and, for the majority, a delay in surgery until puberty has completed is emphasised. In hypospadias patients, the variety of surgical procedures has complicated assessment of outcomes. It appears that true surgical success may be difficult to measure as many men who have had earlier operations are not reassessed in either puberty or adult life. There is also a brief discussion of acquired penile anomalies, including causation and treatment of lymphoedema, penile fracture/trauma, and priapism.

Characterization of extreme air-sea turbulent fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Belyaev, Konstantin

2017-04-01

Extreme ocean-atmosphere turbulent fluxes play a critical role in the convective processes in the mid and subpolar latitudes and may also affect a variety of atmospheric processes, such as generation and re-intensification of extreme cyclones in the areas of the mid latitude storm tracks. From the ocean dynamics perspective, specifically for quantifying extreme vertical mixing, characterization of the extreme fluxes requires, besides estimation of the extreme events, also consideration of the relative extremeness of surface fluxes and their timing, e.g. the duration of periods of high surface fluxes. In order to comprehensively characterize extreme turbulent fluxes at sea surface we propose a formalism based upon probability density distributions of surface turbulent fluxes and flux-related variables. Individual absolute flux extremes were derived using Modified Fisher-Tippett (MFT) distribution of turbulent fluxes. Then, we extend this distribution to the fractional distribution, characterizing the fraction of time-integrated turbulent heat flux provided by the fluxes exceeding a given percentile. Finally, we consider the time durations during which fluxes of a given intensity provide extreme accumulations of heat loss from the surface. For estimation of these characteristics of surface fluxes we use fluxes recomputed from the state variables available from modern era reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA and CFSR) for the period from 1979 onwards. Applications of the formalism to the VOS (Voluntary Observing Ship) - based surface fluxes are also considered. We discuss application of the new metrics of mesoscale and synoptic variability of surface fluxes to the dynamics of mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic.

Vulnerability and resilience of the carbon exchange of a subarctic peatland to an extreme winter event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Rasse, Daniel P.; Lund, Magnus; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Drake, Bert G.; Weldon, Simon; Tømmervik, Hans; Hansen, Georg H.

2018-06-01

Extreme winter events that damage vegetation are considered an important climatic cause of arctic browning—a reversal of the greening trend of the region—and possibly reduce the carbon uptake of northern ecosystems. Confirmation of a reduction in CO2 uptake due to winter damage, however, remains elusive due to a lack of flux measurements from affected ecosystems. In this study, we report eddy covariance fluxes of CO2 from a peatland in northern Norway and show that vegetation CO2 uptake was delayed and reduced in the summer of 2014 following an extreme winter event earlier that year. Strong frost in the absence of a protective snow cover—its combined intensity unprecedented in the local climate record—caused severe dieback of the dwarf shrub species Calluna vulgaris and Empetrum nigrum. Similar vegetation damage was reported at the time along ~1000 km of coastal Norway, showing the widespread impact of this event. Our results indicate that gross primary production (GPP) exhibited a delayed response to temperature following snowmelt. From snowmelt up to the peak of summer, this reduced carbon uptake by 14 (0–24) g C m‑2 (~12% of GPP in that period)—similar to the effect of interannual variations in summer weather. Concurrently, remotely-sensed NDVI dropped to the lowest level in more than a decade. However, bulk photosynthesis was eventually stimulated by the warm and sunny summer, raising total GPP. Species other than the vulnerable shrubs were probably resilient to the extreme winter event. The warm summer also increased ecosystem respiration, which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have an ecosystem-wide impact on CO2 uptake, and highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem models to accurately predict trends in vegetation productivity and carbon sequestration in the Arctic and sub-Arctic.

Physical exam of the adolescent shoulder: tips for evaluating and diagnosing common shoulder disorders in the adolescent athlete.

PubMed

Lazaro, Lionel E; Cordasco, Frank A

2017-02-01

In the young athlete, the shoulder is one of the most frequently injured joints during sports activities. The injuries are either from an acute traumatic event or overuse. Shoulder examination can present some challenges; given the multiple joints involved, the difficulty palpating the underlying structures, and the potential to have both intra- and/or extra-articular problems. Many of the shoulder examination tests can be positive in multiple problems. They usually have high sensitivity but low specificity and therefore low predictive value. The medical history coupled with a detailed physical exam can usually provide the information necessary to obtain an accurate diagnosis. A proficient shoulder examination and the development of an adequate differential diagnosis are important before considering advanced imaging. The shoulder complex relies upon the integrity of multiple structures for normal function. A detailed history is of paramount importance when evaluating young athletes with shoulder problems. A systematic physical examination is extremely important to guiding an accurate diagnosis. The patient's age and activity level are very important when considering the differential diagnosis. Findings obtain through history and physical examination should dictate the decision to obtain advanced imaging of the shoulder.

Coupling hydrologic and hydraulic models to take into consideration retention effects on extreme peak discharges in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felder, Guido; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

2015-04-01

Estimating peak discharges with very low probabilities is still accompanied by large uncertainties. Common estimation methods are usually based on extreme value statistics applied to observed time series or to hydrological model outputs. However, such methods assume the system to be stationary and do not specifically consider non-stationary effects. Observed time series may exclude events where peak discharge is damped by retention effects, as this process does not occur until specific thresholds, possibly beyond those of the highest measured event, are exceeded. Hydrological models can be complemented and parameterized with non-linear functions. However, in such cases calibration depends on observed data and non-stationary behaviour is not deterministically calculated. Our study discusses the option of considering retention effects on extreme peak discharges by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models. This possibility is tested by forcing the semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model PREVAH with randomly generated, physically plausible extreme precipitation patterns. The resulting hydrographs are then used to force the hydraulic model BASEMENT-ETH (riverbed in 1D, potential inundation areas in 2D). The procedure ensures that the estimated extreme peak discharge does not exceed the physical limit given by the riverbed capacity and that the dampening effect of inundation processes on peak discharge is considered.

The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali

Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled futuremore » climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize and soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.« less

Microstructure-Sensitive Extreme Value Probabilities for High Cycle Fatigue of Ni-Base Superalloy IN100 (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

transition fatigue regimes; however, microplasticity (i.e., heterogeneous plasticity at the scale of microstructure) is relevant to understanding fatigue...and Socie [57] considered the affect of microplastic 14 Microstructure-Sensitive Extreme Value Probabilities for High Cycle Fatigue of Ni-Base...considers the local stress state as affected by intergranular interactions and microplasticity . For the calculations given below, the volumes over which

Design and analysis of x-ray vision systems for high-speed detection of foreign body contamination in food

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graves, Mark; Smith, Alexander; Batchelor, Bruce G.; Palmer, Stephen C.

1994-10-01

In the food industry there is an ever increasing need to control and monitor food quality. In recent years fully automated x-ray inspection systems have been used to detect food on-line for foreign body contamination. These systems involve a complex integration of x- ray imaging components with state of the art high speed image processing. The quality of the x-ray image obtained by such systems is very poor compared with images obtained from other inspection processes, this makes reliable detection of very small, low contrast defects extremely difficult. It is therefore extremely important to optimize the x-ray imaging components to give the very best image possible. In this paper we present a method of analyzing the x-ray imaging system in order to consider the contrast obtained when viewing small defects.

Building shared experience to advance practical application of pathway-based toxicology: liver toxicity mode-of-action.

PubMed

Willett, Catherine; Caverly Rae, Jessica; Goyak, Katy O; Minsavage, Gary; Westmoreland, Carl; Andersen, Melvin; Avigan, Mark; Duché, Daniel; Harris, Georgina; Hartung, Thomas; Jaeschke, Hartmut; Kleensang, Andre; Landesmann, Brigitte; Martos, Suzanne; Matevia, Marilyn; Toole, Colleen; Rowan, Andrew; Schultz, Terry; Seed, Jennifer; Senior, John; Shah, Imran; Subramanian, Kalyanasundaram; Vinken, Mathieu; Watkins, Paul

2014-01-01

A workshop sponsored by the Human Toxicology Project Consortium (HTPC), "Building Shared Experience to Advance Practical Application of Pathway-Based Toxicology: Liver Toxicity Mode-of-Action" brought together experts from a wide range of perspectives to inform the process of pathway development and to advance two prototype pathways initially developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC): liver-specific fibrosis and steatosis. The first half of the workshop focused on the theory and practice of pathway development; the second on liver disease and the two prototype pathways. Participants agreed pathway development is extremely useful for organizing information and found that focusing the theoretical discussion on a specific AOP is extremely helpful. In addition, it is important to include several perspectives during pathway development, including information specialists, pathologists, human health and environmental risk assessors, and chemical and product manufacturers, to ensure the biology is well captured and end use is considered.

Missile telemetry systems for flight tests and EMC tests on EED's

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freymann, D.

1985-06-01

This paper describes telemetry systems developed for use in the 'Roland', 'MLRS AT2' and 'Kormoran' missiles. The main design effort required to obtain a high performance of telemetry data acquisition and transmission under extreme environmental conditions are discussed, along with test results. Considered are different types of PCM telemetry systems where the data is either transmitted directly to the ground via an RF or fiber optic link or stored in an onboard solid-state memory. The safety of EEDs in the presence of unwanted electromagnetic fields or currents is very important in weapon-systems. Therefore another type of telemetry system is reported here allowing the measurement of extremely small DC- and RF-currents induced on EEDs during EMC ground-tests. These telemetry signals are transmitted via fiber optics, to avoid additional coupling. Finally, there is a brief commentary on the future design philosophy of missile telemetry systems.

Identification of an updated set of prescribing-safety indicators for GPs

PubMed Central

Spencer, Rachel; Bell, Brian; Avery, Anthony J; Gookey, Gill; Campbell, Stephen M

2014-01-01

Background Medication error is an important contributor to patient morbidity and mortality and is associated with inadequate patient safety measures. However, prescribing-safety tools specifically designed for use in general practice are lacking. Aim To identify and update a set of prescribing-safety indicators for assessing the safety of prescribing in general practice, and to estimate the risk of harm to patients associated with each indicator. Design and setting RAND/UCLA consensus development of indicators in UK general practice. Method Prescribing indicators were identified from a systematic review and previous consensus exercise. The RAND Appropriateness Method was used to further identify and develop the indicators with an electronic-Delphi method used to rate the risk associated with them. Twelve GPs from all the countries of the UK participated in the RAND exercise, with 11 GPs rating risk using the electronic-Delphi approach. Results Fifty-six prescribing-safety indicators were considered appropriate for inclusion (overall panel median rating of 7–9, with agreement). These indicators cover hazardous prescribing across a range of therapeutic indications, hazardous drug–drug combinations and inadequate laboratory test monitoring. Twenty-three (41%) of these indicators were considered high risk or extreme risk by 80% or more of the participants. Conclusion This study identified a set of 56 indicators that were considered, by a panel of GPs, to be appropriate for assessing the safety of GP prescribing. Twenty-three of these indicators were considered to be associated with high or extreme risk to patients and should be the focus of efforts to improve patient safety. PMID:24686882

Diagnosis abnormalities of limb movement in disorders of the nervous system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tymchik, Gregory S.; Skytsiouk, Volodymyr I.; Klotchko, Tatiana R.; Bezsmertna, Halyna; Wójcik, Waldemar; Luganskaya, Saule; Orazbekov, Zhassulan; Iskakova, Aigul

2017-08-01

The paper deals with important issues of diagnosis early signs of diseases of the nervous system, including Parkinson's disease and other specific diseases. Small quantities of violation trajectory of spatial movement of the extremities of human disease at the primary level as the most appropriate features are studied. In modern medical practice is very actual the control the emergence of diseases of the nervous system, including Parkinson's disease. In work a model limbs with six rotational kinematic pairs for diagnosis of early signs of diseases of the nervous system is considered. subject.

Hyperthyroidism presenting as isolated tricuspid regurgitation and right heart failure.

PubMed

Whitner, Tanya E; Hudson, Christopher J; Smith, Timothy D; Littmann, Laszlo

2005-01-01

Although hyperthyroidism has many signs and symptoms, right heart failure can occasionally be the main presenting symptom. We describe the case of a previously healthy 42-year-old woman whose chief complaint was progressive bilateral lower extremity edema. The echocardiogram revealed right atrial dilatation and moderate-to-severe tricuspid regurgitation. Results of laboratory studies were consistent with hyperthyroidism. Thyroid ablation resulted in permanent resolution of symptoms and resolution of tricuspid incompetence on echocardiography. In a case of isolated, unexplained tricuspid regurgitation, it is important to consider indolent hyperthyroidism in the differential diagnosis.

[Macrophage activation in atherosclerosis. Message 1: Activation of macrophages normally and in atherosclerotic lesions].

PubMed

Nikiforov, N G; Kornienko, V Y; Karagodin, V P; Orekhov, A N

2015-01-01

Macrophages play important role in initiation and progression of inflammation in atherosclerosis. Plaque macrophages were shown to exhibit a phenotypic range that is intermediate between two extremes, M1 (proinflammatory) and M2 (anti-inflammatory). Indeed, in atherosclerosis, macrophages demonstrate phenotypic plasticity to rapidly adjust to changing microenvironmental conditions. In plaque macrophages demonstrate different phenotypes, and besides macrophage phenotypes could be changed. Phenotypes M1, M2, M4, Mhem, HA-mac, M(Hb) u Mox are described in the article. Ability of macrophages change their phenotype also considered.

Modeling of extreme freshwater outflow from the north-eastern Japanese river basins to western Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troselj, Josko; Sayama, Takahiro; Varlamov, Sergey M.; Sasaki, Toshiharu; Racault, Marie-Fanny; Takara, Kaoru; Miyazawa, Yasumasa; Kuroki, Ryusuke; Yamagata, Toshio; Yamashiki, Yosuke

2017-12-01

This study demonstrates the importance of accurate extreme discharge input in hydrological and oceanographic combined modeling by introducing two extreme typhoon events. We investigated the effects of extreme freshwater outflow events from river mouths on sea surface salinity distribution (SSS) in the coastal zone of the north-eastern Japan. Previous studies have used observed discharge at the river mouth, as well as seasonally averaged inter-annual, annual, monthly or daily simulated data. Here, we reproduced the hourly peak discharge during two typhoon events for a targeted set of nine rivers and compared their impact on SSS in the coastal zone based on observed, climatological and simulated freshwater outflows in conjunction with verification of the results using satellite remote-sensing data. We created a set of hourly simulated freshwater outflow data from nine first-class Japanese river basins flowing to the western Pacific Ocean for the two targeted typhoon events (Chataan and Roke) and used it with the integrated hydrological (CDRMV3.1.1) and oceanographic (JCOPE-T) model, to compare the case using climatological mean monthly discharges as freshwater input from rivers with the case using our hydrological model simulated discharges. By using the CDRMV model optimized with the SCE-UA method, we successfully reproduced hindcasts for peak discharges of extreme typhoon events at the river mouths and could consider multiple river basin locations. Modeled SSS results were verified by comparison with Chlorophyll-a distribution, observed by satellite remote sensing. The projection of SSS in the coastal zone became more realistic than without including extreme freshwater outflow. These results suggest that our hydrological models with optimized model parameters calibrated to the Typhoon Roke and Chataan cases can be successfully used to predict runoff values from other extreme precipitation events with similar physical characteristics. Proper simulation of extreme typhoon events provides more realistic coastal SSS and may allow a different scenario analysis with various precipitation inputs for developing a nowcasting analysis in the future.

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments

DOE PAGES

Wilcox, Kevin R.; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A.; ...

2017-04-02

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitationmore » changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. Here, we used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. Finally, this highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.« less

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments.

PubMed

Wilcox, Kevin R; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A; Lemoine, Nathan P; Koerner, Sally E; Hoover, David L; Bork, Edward; Byrne, Kerry M; Cahill, James; Collins, Scott L; Evans, Sarah; Gilgen, Anna K; Holub, Petr; Jiang, Lifen; Knapp, Alan K; LeCain, Daniel; Liang, Junyi; Garcia-Palacios, Pablo; Peñuelas, Josep; Pockman, William T; Smith, Melinda D; Sun, Shanghua; White, Shannon R; Yahdjian, Laura; Zhu, Kai; Luo, Yiqi

2017-10-01

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset.

Stability and UV completion of the Standard Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branchina, Vincenzo; Messina, Emanuele

2017-03-01

The knowledge of the electroweak vacuum stability condition is of the greatest importance for our understanding of beyond Standard Model physics. It is widely believed that new physics that lives at very high-energy scales should have no impact on the stability analysis. This expectation has been recently challenged, but the results were controversial as new physics was given in terms of non-renormalizable higher-order operators. Here we consider for the first time new physics at extremely high-energy scales (say close to the Planck scale) in terms of renormalizable operators, in other words we consider a sort of toy UV completion of the Standard Model, and definitely show that its presence can be crucial in determining the vacuum stability condition. This result has important phenomenological consequences, as it provides useful guidance in studying beyond Standard Model theories. Moreover, it suggests that very popular speculations based on the so-called “criticality” of the Standard Model do not appear to be well founded.

Evaluation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation extremes in southern Brazil considering the ODP phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firpo, M. A.; Sansigolo, C. A.

2011-12-01

One of the most important modes of interannual variability from ocean-atmosphere system is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO. The Brazil southern region belongs to the Southeast of South America, where there is a strong signal of ENSO, especially over the precipitation. This phenomenon can be modulated by low frequency climate patterns, especially the dominant pattern of North Pacific, called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Attempting to better understand these interactions, the objective of this study was to investigate the seasonal impact of ENSO events over the Southern Brazil precipitation, taking into account the PDO phases. The dataset used in this study, consist of monthly precipitation records of six well distributed stations from southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul state). From these series it was calculated a unique index, which was categorized in three classes, in order to obtain the extremes: very below normal precipitation (below the percentile 10), normal precipitation (between percentile 10 and 90) and very above normal precipitation (above the percentile 90). To characterize the ENSO events, it was applied the Trenberth (1997) criteria in the index proposed by Bunge and Clarke (2009), which corrects the inconsistencies between the conventional SST index for Niño 3.4 region and the Southern Oscillation Index before 1950, going beyond the incoherence for decadal scale. For PDO, it was used the index proposed by Mantua et al. (1997). Contingency tables were constructed to analyze the seasonal, simultaneous, and 3, 6, 9 and 12 months lagged relationships between ENSO events (El Niño, neutral, La Niña), and extreme precipitation anomalies (categories), also considering the PDO phases during the 1913-1999 period. Moreover, a wavelet analysis was used to check the coherency and phase among these 3 times series during the 1913-2006 period. The Contingency Tables analysis showed that, generally, there were more positive (negative) precipitation extreme events in El Niño (La Niña) conditions. The impact of El Niño in the increase of rainfall quantities is higher than the impact of La Niña in its reduction. Furthermore, the El Niño impacts are more persistent. For La Niña analyses, the period of DJF (summer austral) showed bigger lag on this impact; for El Niño the impact starts simultaneously in all seasons and lasted more in JJA. Considering PDO phases, in warm (cold) phase there were more El Niño (La Niña) events. When PDO is positive, the impact of El Niño is stronger over the precipitation increase than in negative phase. The same occurs with La Niña, and the decrease of precipitation in the negative phase of PDO, but only for the DJF period. The Cross-Wavelets showed that PDO and ENSO interacts in both time scales, with ENSO leading PDO in the scale of 4-7 years, and PDO leading ENSO in 16-28 years. Both PDO and ENSO are coherent with the precipitation index in the scale of 2-7 years, but this coherence only appears in the periods of positive phase of PDO. Thus, only ENOS do not explain the climate variability in this region, and it is important to consider the PDO phases in studies of impacts of ENSO in the precipitation extremes in Southern Brazil.

Resident use of the Internet, e-mail, and personal electronics in the care of surgical patients.

PubMed

Plant, Mathew A; Fish, Joel S

2015-01-01

The use of smartphones, e-mail, and the Internet has affected virtually all areas of patient care. Current university and hospital policies concerning the use of devices may be incongruent with day-to-day patient care. The goal was to assess the current usage patterns of the Internet, e-mail, and personal electronics for clinical purposes by surgical residents as well as their communication habits and preferences. Also assessed was residents' knowledge regarding the institutional policies surrounding these issues. Surgical residents (n = 294) at a large teaching institution were surveyed regarding their knowledge of university policies as well as daily use of various communication technologies. Communication preferences were determined using theoretical clinical scenarios. Our survey with a response rate of 54.7% (n = 161) revealed that 93.8% of participants indicated daily Internet use for clinical duties. Most respondents (72%) were either completely unaware of the existence of guidelines for its use or aware but had no familiarity with their content. Use of e-mail for clinical duties was common (85%), and 74% of the respondents rated e-mail as "very important" or "extremely important" for patient care. Everyone who responded had a mobile phone with 98.7% being "smartphones," which the majority (82.9%) stated was "very important" or "extremely important" for patient care. Text messaging was the primary communication method for 57.8% of respondents. The traditional paging system was the primary communication method for only 1.3% of respondents and the preferred method for none. Daily use of technology is the norm among residents; however, knowledge of university guidelines was exceedingly low. Residents need better education regarding current guidelines. Current guidelines do not reflect current clinical practice. Hospitals should consider abandoning the traditional paging system and consider facilitating better use of residents' mobile phones.

Brazilian research on extremophiles in the context of astrobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, Rubens T. D.; Nóbrega, Felipe; Nakayama, Cristina R.; Pellizari, Vivian H.

2012-10-01

Extremophiles are organisms adapted to grow at extreme ranges of environmental variables, such as high or low temperatures, acid or alkaline medium, high salt concentration, high pressures and so forth. Most extremophiles are micro-organisms that belong to the Archaea and Bacteria domains, and are widely spread across the world, which include the polar regions, volcanoes, deserts, deep oceanic sediments, hydrothermal vents, hypersaline lakes, acid and alkaline water bodies, and other extreme environments considered hostile to human life. Despite the tropical climate, Brazil has a wide range of ecosystems which include some permanent or seasonally extreme environments. For example, the Cerrado is a biome with very low soil pH with high Al+3 concentration, the mangroves in the Brazilian coast are anaerobic and saline, Pantanal has thousands of alkaline-saline lakes, the Caatinga arid and hot soils and the deep sea sediments in the Brazilian ocean shelf. These environments harbour extremophilic organisms that, coupled with the high natural biodiversity in Brazil, could be explored for different purposes. However, only a few projects in Brazil intended to study the extremophiles. In the frame of astrobiology, for example, these organisms could provide important models for defining the limits of life and hypothesize about life outside Earth. Brazilian microbiologists have, however, studied the extremophilic micro-organisms inhabiting non-Brazilian environments, such as the Antarctic continent. The experience and previous results obtained from the Brazilian Antarctic Program (PROANTAR) provide important results that are directly related to astrobiology. This article is a brief synopsis of the Brazilian experience in researching extremophiles, indicating the most important results related to astrobiology and some future perspectives in this area.

Threats from Climate Change to Terrestrial Vertebrate Hotspots in Europe

PubMed Central

Maiorano, Luigi; Amori, Giovanni; Capula, Massimo; Falcucci, Alessandra; Masi, Monica; Montemaggiori, Alessandro; Pottier, Julien; Psomas, Achilleas; Rondinini, Carlo; Russo, Danilo; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2013-01-01

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21st century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran’s I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation. PMID:24066162

Threats from climate change to terrestrial vertebrate hotspots in Europe.

PubMed

Maiorano, Luigi; Amori, Giovanni; Capula, Massimo; Falcucci, Alessandra; Masi, Monica; Montemaggiori, Alessandro; Pottier, Julien; Psomas, Achilleas; Rondinini, Carlo; Russo, Danilo; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Boitani, Luigi; Guisan, Antoine

2013-01-01

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21(st) century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran's I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.

Modeling And Economics Of Extreme Subduction Earthquakes: Two Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Moulinec, C.

2008-05-01

The destructive effects of large magnitude, thrust subduction superficial (TSS) earthquakes on Mexico City (MC) and Guadalajara (G) has been shown in the recent centuries. For example, the 7/04/1845 and the 19/09/1985, two TSS earthquakes occurred on the coast of the state of Guerrero and Michoacan, with Ms 7+ and 8.1. The economical losses for the later were of about 7 billion US dollars. Also, the largest Ms 8.2, instrumentally observed TSS earthquake in Mexico, occurred in the Colima-Jalisco region the 3/06/1932, and the 9/10/1995 another similar, Ms 7.4 event occurred in the same region, the later produced economical losses of hundreds of thousands US dollars.The frequency of occurrence of large TSS earthquakes in Mexico is poorly known, but it might vary from decades to centuries [1]. Therefore there is a lack of strong ground motions records for extreme TSS earthquakes in Mexico, which as mentioned above, recently had an important economical impact on MC and potentially could have it in G. In this work we obtained samples of broadband synthetics [2,3] expected in MC and G, associated to extreme (plausible) magnitude Mw 8.5, TSS scenario earthquakes, with epicenters in the so-called Guerrero gap and in the Colima-Jalisco zone, respectively. The economical impacts of the proposed extreme TSS earthquake scenarios for MC and G were considered as follows: For MC by using a risk acceptability criteria, the probabilities of exceedance of the maximum seismic responses of their construction stock under the assumed scenarios, and the estimated economical losses observed for the 19/09/1985 earthquake; and for G, by estimating the expected economical losses, based on the seismic vulnerability assessment of their construction stock under the extreme seismic scenario considered. ----------------------- [1] Nishenko S.P. and Singh SK, BSSA 77, 6, 1987 [2] Cabrera E., Chavez M., Madariaga R., Mai M, Frisenda M., Perea N., AGU, Fall Meeting, 2005 [3] Chavez M., Olsen K.B., Cabrera E., 13th World Conf. Earthq. Eng., 2004

The partitioning of litter carbon during litter decomposition under different rainfall patterns: a laboratory study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, X.; Szlavecz, K. A.; Langley, J. A.; Pitz, S.; Chang, C. H.

2017-12-01

Quantifying litter C into different C fluxes during litter decomposition is necessary to understand carbon cycling under changing climatic conditions. Rainfall patterns are predicted to change in the future, and their effects on the fate of litter carbon are poorly understood. Soils from deciduous forests in Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC) in Maryland, USA were collected to reconstruct soil columns in the lab. 13C labeled tulip poplar leaf litter was used to trace carbon during litter decomposition. Top 1% and the mean of 15-minute historical precipitation data from nearby weather stations were considered as extreme and control rainfall intensity, respectively. Both intensity and frequency of rainfall were manipulated, while the total amount was kept constant. A pulse of CO2 efflux was detected right after each rainfall event in the soil columns with leaf litter. After the first event, CO2 efflux of the control rainfall treatment soils increased to threefold of the CO2 efflux before rain event and that of the extreme treatment soils increased to fivefold. However, in soils without leaf litter, CO2 efflux was suppressed right after rainfall events. After each rainfall event, the leaf litter contribution to CO2 efflux first showed an increase, decreased sharply in the following two days, and then stayed relatively constant. In soil columns with leaf litter, the order of cumulative CO2 efflux was control > extreme > intermediate. The order of cumulative CO2 efflux in the bare soil treatment was extreme > intermediate > control. The order of volume of leachate from different treatments was extreme > intermediate > control. Our initial results suggest that more intense rainfall events result in larger pulses of CO2, which is rarely measured in the field. Additionally, soils with and without leaf litter respond differently to precipitation events. This is important to consider in temperate regions where leaf litter cover changes throughout the year. Including the rainfall pattern as a parameter to the partitioning of litter carbon could help better project soil carbon cycling in the Mid-Atlantic region.

Perceived ability to perform daily hand activities after stroke and associated factors: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Ekstrand, Elisabeth; Rylander, Lars; Lexell, Jan; Brogårdh, Christina

2016-11-02

Despite that disability of the upper extremity is common after stroke, there is limited knowledge how it influences self-perceived ability to perform daily hand activities. The aim of this study was to describe which daily hand activities that persons with mild to moderate impairments of the upper extremity after stroke perceive difficult to perform and to evaluate how several potential factors are associated with the self-perceived performance. Seventy-five persons (72 % male) with mild to moderate impairments of the upper extremity after stroke (4 to 116 months) participated. Self-perceived ability to perform daily hand activities was rated with the ABILHAND Questionnaire. The perceived ability to perform daily hand activities and the potentially associated factors (age, gender, social and vocational situation, affected hand, upper extremity pain, spasticity, grip strength, somatosensation of the hand, manual dexterity, perceived participation and life satisfaction) were evaluated by linear regression models. The activities that were perceived difficult or impossible for a majority of the participants were bimanual tasks that required fine manual dexterity of the more affected hand. The factor that had the strongest association with perceived ability to perform daily hand activities was dexterity (p < 0.001), which together with perceived participation (p = 0.002) explained 48 % of the variance in the final multivariate model. Persons with mild to moderate impairments of the upper extremity after stroke perceive that bimanual activities requiring fine manual dexterity are the most difficult to perform. Dexterity and perceived participation are factors specifically important to consider in the rehabilitation of the upper extremity after stroke in order to improve the ability to use the hands in daily life.

Regional extreme rainfalls observed globally with 17 years of the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takayabu, Yukari; Hamada, Atsushi; Mori, Yuki; Murayama, Yuki; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward

2015-04-01

While extreme rainfall has a huge impact upon human society, the characteristics of the extreme precipitation vary from region to region. Seventeen years of three dimensional precipitation measurements from the space-borne precipitation radar equipped with the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission satellite enabled us to describe the characteristics of regional extreme precipitation globally. Extreme rainfall statistics are based on rainfall events defined as a set of contiguous PR rainy pixels. Regional extreme rainfall events are defined as those in which maximum near-surface rainfall rates are higher than the corresponding 99.9th percentile in each 2.5degree x2.5degree horizontal resolution grid. First, regional extreme rainfall is characterized in terms of its intensity and event size. Regions of ''intense and extensive'' extreme rainfall are found mainly over oceans near coastal areas and are likely associated with tropical cyclones and convective systems associated with the establishment of monsoons. Regions of ''intense but less extensive'' extreme rainfall are distributed widely over land and maritime continents, probably related to afternoon showers and mesoscale convective systems. Regions of ''extensive but less intense'' extreme rainfall are found almost exclusively over oceans, likely associated with well-organized mesoscale convective systems and extratropical cyclones. Secondly, regional extremes in terms of surface rainfall intensity and those in terms of convection height are compared. Conventionally, extremely tall convection is considered to contribute the largest to the intense rainfall. Comparing probability density functions (PDFs) of 99th percentiles in terms of the near surface rainfall intensity in each regional grid and those in terms of the 40dBZ echo top heights, it is found that heaviest precipitation in the region is not associated with tallest systems, but rather with systems with moderate heights. Interestingly, this separation of extremely heavy precipitation from extremely tall convection is found to be quite universal, irrespective of regions. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Thus it is demonstrated that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection. Third, the size effect of rainfall events on the precipitation intensity is investigated. Comparisons of normalized PDFs of foot-print size rainfall intensity for different sizes of rainfall events show that footprint-scale extreme rainfall becomes stronger as the rainfall events get larger. At the same time, stratiform ratio in area as well as in rainfall amount increases with the size, confirming larger sized features are more organized systems. After all, it is statistically shown that organization of precipitation not only brings about an increase in extreme volumetric rainfall but also an increase in probability of the satellite footprint scale extreme rainfall.

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, In-Won; Oh, Jaiho; Woo, Sumin; Kripalani, R. H.

2018-04-01

In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998-2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and low-resolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.

The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoso, Agus; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Cai, Wenju

2017-12-01

The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major El Niño finally materialized after a long pause since the 1997/1998 extreme El Niño. It was scientifically exciting since, due to the short observational record, our knowledge of an extreme El Niño has been based only on the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The 2015/2016 El Niño was marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected for an extreme El Niño. Considering the dramatic impacts of extreme El Niño, and the risk of a potential increase in frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming, it is timely to evaluate how the recent event fits into our understanding of ENSO extremes. Here we provide a review of ENSO, its nature and dynamics, and through analysis of various observed key variables, we outline the processes that characterize its extremes. The 2015/2016 El Niño brings a useful perspective into the state of understanding of these events and highlights areas for future research. While the 2015/2016 El Niño is characteristically distinct from the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, it still can be considered as the first extreme El Niño of the 21st century. Its extremity can be attributed in part to unusually warm condition in 2014 and to long-term background warming. In effect, this study provides a list of physically meaningful indices that are straightforward to compute for identifying and tracking extreme ENSO events in observations and climate models.

Genetics Home Reference: paroxysmal extreme pain disorder

MedlinePlus

... extreme pain disorder is considered a form of peripheral neuropathy because it affects the peripheral nervous system, which ... Page National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke: Peripheral Neuropathy Information Page Educational Resources (6 links) Disease InfoSearch: ...

Intensification of hot extremes in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diffenbaugh, Noah; Ashfaq, Moetasim

Governments are currently considering policies that will limit greenhouse gas concentrations, including negotiation of an international treaty to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol. Existing mitigation targets have arisen primarily from political negotiations, and the ability of such policies to avoid dangerous impacts is still uncertain. Using a large suite of climate model experiments, we find that substantial intensification of hot extremes could occur within the next 3 decades, below the 2 C global warming target currently being considered by policy makers. We also find that the intensification of hot extremes is associated with a shift towards more anticyclonic atmospheric circulationmore » during the warm season, along with warm-season drying over much of the U.S. The possibility that intensification of hot extremes could result from relatively small increases in greenhouse gas concentrations suggests that constraining global warming to 2 C may not be sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change.« less

Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, Anthony

2016-04-01

Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the issuing authority, these reports include wind speed and atmospheric pressure for a number of stations. However, there is also important ancillary information that includes satellite images, weather radar pictures, sea state recordings, tide gauge records, and coastal surveys. When collated together, the literature survey gives good view of events related to the autumn storm. The key information from media reports is backed up by quantitative numbers from the scientific literature. For energy meteorology in the offshore environment, there is an outline of extreme wave events that may be important to help define the ultimate limit state of engineering structures and the return periods of extreme waves. While this contribution focusses on events from an old storm in the autumn of 2006, more severe regional storms have occurred since then, and the scientific literature indicates that these may be linked with climate warming. Literature surveys may help to fully define extreme meteorological conditions offshore and benefit different branches of the energy industry in Europe.

Numerical Researches on Dynamical Systems with Relativistic Spin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W. B.

2010-04-01

It is well known that spinning compact binaries are one of the most important research objects in the universe. Especially, EMRIs (extreme mass ratio inspirals) involving stellar compact objects which orbit massive black holes, are considered to be primary sources of gravitational radiation (GW) which could be detected by the space-based interferometer LISA. GW signals from EMRIs can be used to test general relativity, measure the masses and spins of central black holes and study essential physics near horizons. Compared with the situation without spin, the complexity of extreme objects, most of which rotate very fast, is much higher. So the dynamics of EMRI systems are numerically and analytically studied. We focus on how the spin effects on the dynamics of these systems and the produced GW radiations. Firstly, an ideal model of spinning test particles around Kerr black hole is considered. For equatorial orbits, we present the correct expression of effective potential and analyze the stability of circular orbits. Especially, the gravitational binding energy and frame-dragging effect of extreme Kerr black hole are much bigger than those without spin. For general orbits, spin can monotonically enlarge orbital inclination and destroy the symmetry of orbits about equatorial plane. It is the most important that extreme spin can produce orbital chaos. By carefully investigating the relations between chaos and orbital parameters, we point out that chaos usually appears for orbits with small pericenter, big eccentricity and orbital inclination. It is emphasized that Poincaré section method is invalid to detect the chaos of spinning particles, and the way of systems toward chaos is the period-doubling bifurcation. Furthermore, we study how spins effect on GW radiations from spinning test particles orbiting Kerr black holes. It is found that spins can increase orbit eccentricity and then make h+ component be detected more easily. But for h× component, because spins change orbital inclination in a complicated way, it is more difficult to build GW signal templates. Secondly, based on the scalar gravity theory, a numerical relativistic model of EMRIs is constructed to consider the self-gravity and radiation reaction of low-mass objects. Finally, we develop a new method with multiple steps for Hamilton systems to meet the needs of numerical researches. This method can effectively maintain each conserved quantity of the separable Hamilton system. In addition, for constrained system with a few first integrals, we present a new numerical stabilization method named as adjustment-stabilization method, which can maintain all known conserved quantities in a given dynamical system and greatly improve the numerical accuracy. Our new method is the most complete stabilization method up to now.

Can we advise ovulation induction in patients with SLE?

PubMed

Wechsler, B; Le Thi Huong, D; Vauthier-Brouzes, D; Lefebvre, G; Gompel, A; Piette, J C

1998-01-01

The prognosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) has greatly improved during the last two decades, now allowing most patients to have a very long survival including a satisfactory quality of life. Initially considered contraindicated in SLE due to its overwhelming risks, pregnancy is nowadays allowed in a majority of patients, and fair results are usually obtained under appropriate management (1-3). Consequently, patients thought to have infertility ask the question of a possible therapy, i.e. ovulation induction (OI) associated or not with in vitro fertilization (IVF). Considering the importance of estrogens in the pathogenesis of the disease, the use of such procedures raise several questions in SLE. Though data remain to date extremely scarce, the theoretical and practical aspects of OI in SLE will be briefly reviewed here.

The Prospects of Accounting at Mining Enterprises as a Factor of Ensuring their Sustainable Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyuleneva, Tatiana

2017-11-01

One of the problems of sustainable development of mining companies is attracting additional investment. To solve it requires access to international capital markets, in this context, enterprises need to prepare financial statements with international requirements based on the data generated by the accounting system. The article considers the basic problems of accounting in the extractive industries due to the nature of the industry, as well as evaluation of the completeness of their solution in the framework of international financial reporting standards. In addition, lists the characteristics of accounting for mining industry, due to the peculiarities of the production process that need to be considered to solve these problems. This sector is extremely important for individual countries and on a global scale.

A walk on the tundra: Host-parasite interactions in an extreme environment.

PubMed

Kutz, Susan J; Hoberg, Eric P; Molnár, Péter K; Dobson, Andy; Verocai, Guilherme G

2014-08-01

Climate change is occurring very rapidly in the Arctic, and the processes that have taken millions of years to evolve in this very extreme environment are now changing on timescales as short as decades. These changes are dramatic, subtle and non-linear. In this article, we discuss the evolving insights into host-parasite interactions for wild ungulate species, specifically, muskoxen and caribou, in the North American Arctic. These interactions occur in an environment that is characterized by extremes in temperature, high seasonality, and low host species abundance and diversity. We believe that lessons learned in this system can guide wildlife management and conservation throughout the Arctic, and can also be generalized to more broadly understand host-parasite interactions elsewhere. We specifically examine the impacts of climate change on host-parasite interactions and focus on: (I) the direct temperature effects on parasites; (II) the importance of considering the intricacies of host and parasite ecology for anticipating climate change impacts; and (III) the effect of shifting ecological barriers and corridors. Insights gained from studying the history and ecology of host-parasite systems in the Arctic will be central to understanding the role that climate change is playing in these more complex systems.

A walk on the tundra: Host–parasite interactions in an extreme environment

PubMed Central

Kutz, Susan J.; Hoberg, Eric P.; Molnár, Péter K.; Dobson, Andy; Verocai, Guilherme G.

2014-01-01

Climate change is occurring very rapidly in the Arctic, and the processes that have taken millions of years to evolve in this very extreme environment are now changing on timescales as short as decades. These changes are dramatic, subtle and non-linear. In this article, we discuss the evolving insights into host–parasite interactions for wild ungulate species, specifically, muskoxen and caribou, in the North American Arctic. These interactions occur in an environment that is characterized by extremes in temperature, high seasonality, and low host species abundance and diversity. We believe that lessons learned in this system can guide wildlife management and conservation throughout the Arctic, and can also be generalized to more broadly understand host–parasite interactions elsewhere. We specifically examine the impacts of climate change on host–parasite interactions and focus on: (I) the direct temperature effects on parasites; (II) the importance of considering the intricacies of host and parasite ecology for anticipating climate change impacts; and (III) the effect of shifting ecological barriers and corridors. Insights gained from studying the history and ecology of host–parasite systems in the Arctic will be central to understanding the role that climate change is playing in these more complex systems. PMID:25180164

Joint multiple fully connected convolutional neural network with extreme learning machine for hepatocellular carcinoma nuclei grading.

PubMed

Li, Siqi; Jiang, Huiyan; Pang, Wenbo

2017-05-01

Accurate cell grading of cancerous tissue pathological image is of great importance in medical diagnosis and treatment. This paper proposes a joint multiple fully connected convolutional neural network with extreme learning machine (MFC-CNN-ELM) architecture for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) nuclei grading. First, in preprocessing stage, each grayscale image patch with the fixed size is obtained using center-proliferation segmentation (CPS) method and the corresponding labels are marked under the guidance of three pathologists. Next, a multiple fully connected convolutional neural network (MFC-CNN) is designed to extract the multi-form feature vectors of each input image automatically, which considers multi-scale contextual information of deep layer maps sufficiently. After that, a convolutional neural network extreme learning machine (CNN-ELM) model is proposed to grade HCC nuclei. Finally, a back propagation (BP) algorithm, which contains a new up-sample method, is utilized to train MFC-CNN-ELM architecture. The experiment comparison results demonstrate that our proposed MFC-CNN-ELM has superior performance compared with related works for HCC nuclei grading. Meanwhile, external validation using ICPR 2014 HEp-2 cell dataset shows the good generalization of our MFC-CNN-ELM architecture. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Astrobiology as a framework for investigating antibiotic susceptibility: a study of Halomonas hydrothermalis

PubMed Central

Cockell, Charles S.

2017-01-01

Physical and chemical boundaries for microbial multiplication on Earth are strongly influenced by interactions between environmental extremes. However, little is known about how interactions between multiple stress parameters affect the sensitivity of microorganisms to antibiotics. Here, we assessed how 12 distinct permutations of salinity, availability of an essential nutrient (iron) and atmospheric composition (aerobic or microaerobic) affect the susceptibility of a polyextremotolerant bacterium, Halomonas hydrothermalis, to ampicillin, kanamycin and ofloxacin. While salinity had a significant impact on sensitivity to all three antibiotics (as shown by turbidimetric analyses), the nature of this impact was modified by iron availability and the ambient gas composition, with differing effects observed for each compound. These two parameters were found to be of particular importance when considered in combination and, in the case of ampicillin, had a stronger combined influence on antibiotic tolerance than salinity. Our data show how investigating microbial responses to multiple extremes, which are more representative of natural habitats than single extremes, can improve our understanding of the effects of antimicrobial compounds and suggest how studies of habitability, motivated by the desire to map the limits of life, can be used to systematically assess the effectiveness of antibiotics. PMID:28123098

Astrobiology as a framework for investigating antibiotic susceptibility: a study of Halomonas hydrothermalis.

PubMed

Harrison, Jesse P; Angel, Roey; Cockell, Charles S

2017-01-01

Physical and chemical boundaries for microbial multiplication on Earth are strongly influenced by interactions between environmental extremes. However, little is known about how interactions between multiple stress parameters affect the sensitivity of microorganisms to antibiotics. Here, we assessed how 12 distinct permutations of salinity, availability of an essential nutrient (iron) and atmospheric composition (aerobic or microaerobic) affect the susceptibility of a polyextremotolerant bacterium, Halomonas hydrothermalis, to ampicillin, kanamycin and ofloxacin. While salinity had a significant impact on sensitivity to all three antibiotics (as shown by turbidimetric analyses), the nature of this impact was modified by iron availability and the ambient gas composition, with differing effects observed for each compound. These two parameters were found to be of particular importance when considered in combination and, in the case of ampicillin, had a stronger combined influence on antibiotic tolerance than salinity. Our data show how investigating microbial responses to multiple extremes, which are more representative of natural habitats than single extremes, can improve our understanding of the effects of antimicrobial compounds and suggest how studies of habitability, motivated by the desire to map the limits of life, can be used to systematically assess the effectiveness of antibiotics. © 2017 The Author(s).

Theoretical and practical aspects of application of a low-energy electromagnetic radiation of the extremely high-frequency range in medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyapina, Elena P.; Chesnokov, Igor A.; Bushuev, Nikolay A.; Kuzyutkina, Svetlana E.; Shuldjakov, Andrey A.

2006-02-01

The questions concerning the mechanism of action of a low-energy electromagnetic radiation of the extremely high frequency range (EMR EHF) are considered. Also the features of biological effects are considered in their application as therapeutic actions. As an example the advantages of EHF treatment of patients with chronic brucellosis are shown, the algorithm of a choice of the scheme of treatment using EMR EHF is offered.

Heat resistance throughout ontogeny: body size constrains thermal tolerance.

PubMed

Klockmann, Michael; Günter, Franziska; Fischer, Klaus

2017-02-01

Heat tolerance is a trait of paramount ecological importance and may determine a species' ability to cope with ongoing climate change. Although critical thermal limits have consequently received substantial attention in recent years, their potential variation throughout ontogeny remained largely neglected. We investigate whether such neglect may bias conclusions regarding a species' sensitivity to climate change. Using a tropical butterfly, we found that developmental stages clearly differed in heat tolerance. It was highest in pupae followed by larvae, adults and finally eggs and hatchlings. Strikingly, most of the variation found in thermal tolerance was explained by differences in body mass, which may thus impose a severe constraint on adaptive variation in stress tolerance. Furthermore, temperature acclimation was beneficial by increasing heat knock-down time and therefore immediate survival under heat stress, but it affected reproduction negatively. Extreme temperatures strongly reduced survival and subsequent reproductive success even in our highly plastic model organism, exemplifying the potentially dramatic impact of extreme weather events on biodiversity. We argue that predictions regarding a species' fate under changing environmental conditions should consider variation in thermal tolerance throughout ontogeny, variation in body mass and acclimation responses as important predictors of stress tolerance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Knowledge management performance methodology regarding manufacturing organizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istrate, C.; Herghiligiu, I. V.

2016-08-01

The current business situation is extremely complicated. Business must adapt to the changes in order (a) to survive on the increasingly dynamic markets, (b) to meet customers’ new request for complex, customized and innovative products. In modern manufacturing organizations it can be seen a substantial improvement regarding the management of knowledge. This occurs due to the fact that organizations realized that knowledge and an efficient management of knowledge generates the highest value. Even it could be said that the manufacturing organizations were and are the biggest beneficiary of KM science. Knowledge management performance (KMP) evaluation in manufacturing organizations can be considered as extremely important because without measuring it, they are unable to properly assess (a) what goals, targets and activities must have continuity, (b) what must be improved and (c) what must be completed. Therefore a proper KM will generate multiple competitive advantages for organizations. This paper presents a developed methodological framework regarding the KMP importance regarding manufacturing organizations. This methodological framework was developed using as research methods: bibliographical research and a panel of specialists. The purpose of this paper is to improve the evaluation process of KMP and to provide a viable tool for manufacturing organizations managers.

Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Beven, Keith; Halldin, Sven; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reynolds, José Eduardo; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2017-07-01

Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Post-event data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum-Cunge-Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90 % of the observed high-water marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e.g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge network. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events can be added into the analysis as they become available.

Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

2013-04-01

Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged sites or estimated extremes at ungauged sites in the considered region, is an efficient way to reduce uncertainties in flood frequency studies.

Heat stress-induced effects of photosystem I: an overview of structural and functional responses.

PubMed

Ivanov, Alexander G; Velitchkova, Maya Y; Allakhverdiev, Suleyman I; Huner, Norman P A

2017-09-01

Temperature is one of the main factors controlling the formation, development, and functional performance of the photosynthetic apparatus in all photoautotrophs (green plants, algae, and cyanobacteria) on Earth. The projected climate change scenarios predict increases in air temperature across Earth's biomes ranging from moderate (3-4 °C) to extreme (6-8 °C) by the year 2100 (IPCC in Climate change 2007: The physical science basis: summery for policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 2007; Climate change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, IPCC WG3 Fifth Assessment Report 2014). In some areas, especially of the Northern hemisphere, even more extreme warm seasonal temperatures may occur, which possibly will cause significant negative effects on the development, growth, and yield of important agricultural crops. It is well documented that high temperatures can cause direct damages of the photosynthetic apparatus and photosystem II (PSII) is generally considered to be the primary target of heat-induced inactivation of photosynthesis. However, since photosystem I (PSI) is considered to determine the global amount of enthalpy in living systems (Nelson in Biochim Biophys Acta 1807:856-863, 2011; Photosynth Res 116:145-151, 2013), the effects of elevated temperatures on PSI might be of vital importance for regulating the photosynthetic response of all photoautotrophs in the changing environment. In this review, we summarize the experimental data that demonstrate the critical impact of heat-induced alterations on the structure, composition, and functional performance of PSI and their significant implications on photosynthesis under future climate change scenarios.

Guidelines in the Choice of Parameters for Hybrid Laser Arc Welding with Fiber Lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eriksson, I.; Powell, J.; Kaplan, A.

Laser arc hybrid welding has been a promising technology for three decades and laser welding in combination with gas metal arc welding (GMAW) has shown that it is an extremely promising technique. On the other hand the process is often considered complicated and difficult to set up correctly. An important factor in setting up the hybrid welding process is an understanding of the GMAW process. It is especially important to understand how the wire feed rate and the arc voltage (the two main parameters) affect the process. In this paper the authors show that laser hybrid welding with a 1 μm laser is similar to ordinary GMAW, and several guidelines are therefore inherited by the laser hybrid process.

Overuse injuries of the lower extremity: shin splints, iliotibial band friction syndrome, and exertional compartment syndromes.

PubMed

Jones, D C; James, S L

1987-04-01

The authors' discussion of overuse injuries of the lower extremity encompasses shin splints, iliotibial band friction syndrome, and exertional compartment syndromes. Etiology, diagnosis, and treatment are considered for each disorder.

Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, Vanesa C.; Penalba, Olga C.

2017-12-01

Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970-2005 and 2065-2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-03-01

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land

PubMed Central

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-01-01

Abstract The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land‐use change (LUC). Land‐based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI‐Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land‐use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI‐Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low‐emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Extreme Mean and Its Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.

1979-01-01

Extreme value statistics obtained from normally distributed data are considered. An extreme mean is defined as the mean of p-th probability truncated normal distribution. An unbiased estimate of this extreme mean and its large sample distribution are derived. The distribution of this estimate even for very large samples is found to be nonnormal. Further, as the sample size increases, the variance of the unbiased estimate converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The computer program used to obtain the density and distribution functions of the standardized unbiased estimate, and the confidence intervals of the extreme mean for any data are included for ready application. An example is included to demonstrate the usefulness of extreme mean application.

Contribution of large-scale circulation anomalies to changes in extreme precipitation frequency in the United States

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Lisi Pei; Xindi (Randy) Bian; Warren E. Heilman

2016-01-01

The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for...

Developing a global health diplomacy supply chain--a viable option for the United States to curb extremism.

PubMed

Kumar, Sameer; Honkanen, Erik J; Karl, Chad C

2009-01-01

This study examines the idea of developing a global health diplomacy supply chain as an important foreign policy approach with the aim of improving the lives of vulnerable populations and serving the best interests of the United States. The study was based on the review of academic literature, news events, and military communiques, and historical writings were studied to determine the feasibility of the idea and the extent of costs and benefits of such an endeavor. An integrated strategic business model, supported by a medical care delivery process, was developed to create a framework for a feasible global health diplomacy supply chain. The findings indicate that extremism can be contained by creating and efficiently executing an effective supply chain to get medical care units to those that need them. The limitations are the potential exit strategies required, the tactical abilities, and diplomatic techniques needed in order to create positive diplomatic change in aid distribution. Managers must consider how supply chains will affect other organizations giving aid and the potential public response. Moreover, determining the level of care necessary to achieve the greatest positive health diplomacy continues to require vigilant scrutiny over the potential cost/benefit analysis. The analysis is valuable to policymakers considering the impacts of health diplomacy by utilizing supply chain management.

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as amore » three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described.« less

Insecticide resistance and diminished secondary kill performance of bait formulations against German cockroaches (Dictyoptera: Blattellidae)

PubMed Central

Ko, Alexander E.; Bieman, Donald N.; Schal, Coby; Silverman, Jules

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Bait formulations are considered the most effective method for reducing German cockroach infestations. An important property of some bait formulations is secondary kill, whereby active ingredient is translocated in insect-produced residues throughout the cockroach population, especially affecting relatively sedentary early instar nymphs. RESULTS Blattella germanica was collected from a location where baits containing hydramethylnon, fipronil, or indoxacarb became ineffective, and these AIs were topically applied to adult males. Results revealed the first evidence for hydramethylnon resistance, moderate resistance to fipronil and extremely high resistance to indoxacarb. Insecticide residues excreted by field-collected males that ingested commercial baits effectively killed nymphs of an insecticide-susceptible laboratory strain of B. germanica but failed to kill most nymphs of the field-collected strain. CONCLUSIONS We report three novel findings: 1) The first evidence for hydramethylnon resistance in any insect; 2) extremely high levels of indoxacarb resistance in a field population; and 3) reduced secondary mortality in an insecticide-resistant field-collected strain of B. germanica. We suggest that while secondary mortality is considered to be advantageous in cockroach interventions, the ingestion of sublethal doses of AI by nymphs may select for high insecticide resistance by increasing the frequency of AI resistance alleles within the population. PMID:26689433

Analysis of extreme rainfall events using attributes control charts in temporal rainfall processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, María; Valencia, Jose Luis; Saá-Requejo, Antonio; María Tarquis, Ana

2015-04-01

The impacts of most intense rainfall events on agriculture and insurance industry can be very severe. This research focuses in the analysis of extreme rainfall events throughout the use of attributes control charts, which constitutes a usual tool in Statistical Process Control (SPC) but unusual in climate studios. Here, series of daily precipitations for the years 1931-2009 within a Spanish region are analyzed, based on a new type of attributes control chart that takes into account the autocorrelation between the extreme rainfall events. The aim is to conclude if there exist or not evidence of a change in the extreme rainfall model of the considered series. After adjusting seasonally the precipitation series and considering the data of the first 30 years, a frequency-based criterion allowed fixing specification limits in order to discriminate between extreme observed rainfall days and normal observed rainfall days. The autocorrelation amongst maximum precipitation is taken into account by a New Binomial Markov Extended Process obtained for each rainfall series. These modelling of the extreme rainfall processes provide a way to generate the attributes control charts for the annual fraction of rainfall extreme days. The extreme rainfall processes along the rest of the years under study can then be monitored by such attributes control charts. The results of the application of this methodology show evidence of change in the model of extreme rainfall events in some of the analyzed precipitation series. This suggests that the attributes control charts proposed for the analysis of the most intense precipitation events will be of practical interest to agriculture and insurance sectors in next future.

Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

PubMed

Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie

2017-12-05

This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

Hot spots of multivariate extreme anomalies in Earth observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flach, M.; Sippel, S.; Bodesheim, P.; Brenning, A.; Denzler, J.; Gans, F.; Guanche, Y.; Reichstein, M.; Rodner, E.; Mahecha, M. D.

2016-12-01

Anomalies in Earth observations might indicate data quality issues, extremes or the change of underlying processes within a highly multivariate system. Thus, considering the multivariate constellation of variables for extreme detection yields crucial additional information over conventional univariate approaches. We highlight areas in which multivariate extreme anomalies are more likely to occur, i.e. hot spots of extremes in global atmospheric Earth observations that impact the Biosphere. In addition, we present the year of the most unusual multivariate extreme between 2001 and 2013 and show that these coincide with well known high impact extremes. Technically speaking, we account for multivariate extremes by using three sophisticated algorithms adapted from computer science applications. Namely an ensemble of the k-nearest neighbours mean distance, a kernel density estimation and an approach based on recurrences is used. However, the impact of atmosphere extremes on the Biosphere might largely depend on what is considered to be normal, i.e. the shape of the mean seasonal cycle and its inter-annual variability. We identify regions with similar mean seasonality by means of dimensionality reduction in order to estimate in each region both the `normal' variance and robust thresholds for detecting the extremes. In addition, we account for challenges like heteroscedasticity in Northern latitudes. Apart from hot spot areas, those anomalies in the atmosphere time series are of particular interest, which can only be detected by a multivariate approach but not by a simple univariate approach. Such an anomalous constellation of atmosphere variables is of interest if it impacts the Biosphere. The multivariate constellation of such an anomalous part of a time series is shown in one case study indicating that multivariate anomaly detection can provide novel insights into Earth observations.

Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

2014-05-01

Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government through its AHRF program.

Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes remote SST anomalies.

A Child's Concept of Pain: An International Survey of Pediatric Pain Experts.

PubMed

Pate, Joshua W; Hush, Julia M; Hancock, Mark J; Moseley, G Lorimer; Butler, David S; Simons, Laura E; Pacey, Verity

2018-01-15

A child's 'concept of pain' refers to how they understand what pain actually is, what function pain serves, and what biological processes are thought to underpin it. We aimed to determine pediatric pain experts' opinions of: (1) the importance and usefulness of assessing a child's concept of pain in clinical and/or research settings; (2) the usefulness of the content of items within currently published adult-targeted resources for assessing a child's concept of pain; and (3) important domains of a child's concept of pain to assess. Forty-nine pediatric pain experts (response rate = 75.4%) completed an online survey. Descriptive statistics and frequency of responses were analyzed. Experts from all included disciplines reported that assessing a child's concept of pain is important and useful both clinically and in a research setting (>80% reported very or extremely useful for each item). Experts considered that the content of 13 items from currently published adult-targeted resources was useful, but the wording was too complex for children aged 8-12 years. Experts considered that all seven of the proposed domains of a child's concept of pain was important to assess. The findings can be used to inform the development of an assessment tool for a child's concept of pain.

A Child’s Concept of Pain: An International Survey of Pediatric Pain Experts

PubMed Central

Hush, Julia M.; Hancock, Mark J.; Moseley, G. Lorimer; Butler, David S.; Pacey, Verity

2018-01-01

A child’s ‘concept of pain’ refers to how they understand what pain actually is, what function pain serves, and what biological processes are thought to underpin it. We aimed to determine pediatric pain experts’ opinions of: (1) the importance and usefulness of assessing a child’s concept of pain in clinical and/or research settings; (2) the usefulness of the content of items within currently published adult-targeted resources for assessing a child’s concept of pain; and (3) important domains of a child’s concept of pain to assess. Forty-nine pediatric pain experts (response rate = 75.4%) completed an online survey. Descriptive statistics and frequency of responses were analyzed. Experts from all included disciplines reported that assessing a child’s concept of pain is important and useful both clinically and in a research setting (>80% reported very or extremely useful for each item). Experts considered that the content of 13 items from currently published adult-targeted resources was useful, but the wording was too complex for children aged 8–12 years. Experts considered that all seven of the proposed domains of a child’s concept of pain was important to assess. The findings can be used to inform the development of an assessment tool for a child’s concept of pain. PMID:29342976

Clinical Considerations for the Use Lower Extremity Arthroplasty in the Elderly.

PubMed

Otero-López, Antonio; Beaton-Comulada, David

2017-11-01

There is an increase in the aging population that has led to a surge of reported cases of osteoarthritis and a greater demand for lower extremity arthroplasty. This article aims to review the current treatment options and expectations when considering lower extremity arthroplasty in the elderly patient with an emphasis on the following subjects: (1) updated clinical guidelines for the management of osteoarthritis in the lower extremity, (2) comorbidities and risk factors in the surgical patient, (3) preoperative evaluation and optimization of the surgical patient, (4) surgical approach and implant selection, and (5) rehabilitation and life after lower extremity arthroplasty. Published by Elsevier Inc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorokina, Veronika, E-mail: ansonika@mail.ru; Nikiforov, Konstantin, E-mail: knikiforov@cc.spbu.ru

Studying emission characteristics of nanotubes is extremely important for development of electronics. Compared to other electron sources nanotube-based field emitters allow obtaining significant emission currents at relatively low values of the applied field. It is possible due to their unique structure. This article is devoted to theoretical investigation how external electric field effects several samples of open single-wall nanotubes from carbon and silicon carbide. Total energies, dipole moments and band gaps for five types of nanotubes were calculated from the first principles. The numerical experiment results indicate the adequacy of modeling. It was concluded that considered configurations of achiral carbonmore » nanotubes should be semiconductors.« less

Energy balance constraints on gravity wave induced eddy diffusion in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strobel, D. F.; Apruzese, J. P.; Schoeberl, M. R.

1985-01-01

The constraints on turbulence improved by the mesospheric heat budget are reexamined, and the sufficiency of the theoretical evidence to support the hypothesis that the eddy Prandtl number is greater than one in the mesosphere is considered. The mesopause thermal structure is calculated with turbulent diffusion coefficients commonly used in chemical models and deduced from mean zonal wind deceleration. It is shown that extreme mesopause temperatures of less than 100 K are produced by the large net cooling. The results demonstrate the importance of the Prandtl number for mesospheric turbulence.

Dust: A major environmental hazard on the earth's moon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heiken, G.; Vaniman, D.; Lehnert, B.

1990-01-01

On the Earth's Moon, obvious hazards to humans and machines are created by extreme temperature fluctuations, low gravity, and the virtual absence of any atmosphere. The most important other environmental factor is ionizing radiation. Less obvious environmental hazards that must be considered before establishing a manned presence on the lunar surface are the hazards from micrometeoroid bombardment, the nuisance of electro-statically-charged lunar dust, and an alien visual environment without familiar clues. Before man can establish lunar bases and lunar mining operations, and continue the exploration of that planet, we must develop a means of mitigating these hazards. 4 refs.

Understanding jet noise.

PubMed

Karabasov, S A

2010-08-13

Jets are one of the most fascinating topics in fluid mechanics. For aeronautics, turbulent jet-noise modelling is particularly challenging, not only because of the poor understanding of high Reynolds number turbulence, but also because of the extremely low acoustic efficiency of high-speed jets. Turbulent jet-noise models starting from the classical Lighthill acoustic analogy to state-of-the art models were considered. No attempt was made to present any complete overview of jet-noise theories. Instead, the aim was to emphasize the importance of sound generation and mean-flow propagation effects, as well as their interference, for the understanding and prediction of jet noise.

Contemporary (post-Wills) survey of the views of Australian medical researchers: importance of funding, infrastructure and motivators for a research career.

PubMed

Shewan, Louise G; Glatz, Jane A; Bennett, Christine C; Coats, Andrew J S

To investigate the perceptions of Australian health and medical researchers 4 years after the Wills Report recommended and led to a substantial increase in health and medical research funding in Australia. A telephone poll of 501 active health and medical researchers, conducted between 28 April and 5 May, 2003. Researchers' views on the adequacy of funding, infrastructure and support, salary, community recognition, the excitement of discovery and research outcomes such as publication and patenting in research. Research funding was the most important concern: 91% of researchers (455/498) viewed funding as "very" or "extremely" important to their role, but only 10% (52/500) were "very" or "extremely" satisfied with the level of funding. Research infrastructure and support were seen as "very" or "extremely" important by 90% of researchers (449/501), while only 21% (104/501) were "very" or "extremely" satisfied. Researchers in medical research institutes were significantly more likely to be satisfied (27% [56/205] "very" or "extremely" satisfied) with the level of infrastructure and support than those working in universities (15% [41/268] "very" or "extremely" satisfied; P = 0.001). Among the factors that motivate researchers, the excitement of discovery stood out in terms of both high importance and satisfaction. Publications were viewed as more important research outcomes than patenting or commercial ventures. Funding and infrastructure support remain overwhelmingly researchers' greatest concerns. University-based researchers were less satisfied with infrastructure and support than those in independent medical research institutes.

A Millennial Challenge: Extremism in Uncertain Times

PubMed Central

Fiske, Susan T.

2014-01-01

This comment highlights the relevance and importance of the uncertainty-extremism topic, both scientifically and societally, identifies common themes, locates this work in a wider scientific and social context, describes what we now know and what we still do not, acknowledges some limitations, foreshadowing future directions, and discusses some potential policy relevance. Common themes emerge around the importance of social justice as sound anti-extremism policy. PMID:24511155

Transforming RNA-Seq data to improve the performance of prognostic gene signatures.

PubMed

Zwiener, Isabella; Frisch, Barbara; Binder, Harald

2014-01-01

Gene expression measurements have successfully been used for building prognostic signatures, i.e for identifying a short list of important genes that can predict patient outcome. Mostly microarray measurements have been considered, and there is little advice available for building multivariable risk prediction models from RNA-Seq data. We specifically consider penalized regression techniques, such as the lasso and componentwise boosting, which can simultaneously consider all measurements and provide both, multivariable regression models for prediction and automated variable selection. However, they might be affected by the typical skewness, mean-variance-dependency or extreme values of RNA-Seq covariates and therefore could benefit from transformations of the latter. In an analytical part, we highlight preferential selection of covariates with large variances, which is problematic due to the mean-variance dependency of RNA-Seq data. In a simulation study, we compare different transformations of RNA-Seq data for potentially improving detection of important genes. Specifically, we consider standardization, the log transformation, a variance-stabilizing transformation, the Box-Cox transformation, and rank-based transformations. In addition, the prediction performance for real data from patients with kidney cancer and acute myeloid leukemia is considered. We show that signature size, identification performance, and prediction performance critically depend on the choice of a suitable transformation. Rank-based transformations perform well in all scenarios and can even outperform complex variance-stabilizing approaches. Generally, the results illustrate that the distribution and potential transformations of RNA-Seq data need to be considered as a critical step when building risk prediction models by penalized regression techniques.

Transforming RNA-Seq Data to Improve the Performance of Prognostic Gene Signatures

PubMed Central

Zwiener, Isabella; Frisch, Barbara; Binder, Harald

2014-01-01

Gene expression measurements have successfully been used for building prognostic signatures, i.e for identifying a short list of important genes that can predict patient outcome. Mostly microarray measurements have been considered, and there is little advice available for building multivariable risk prediction models from RNA-Seq data. We specifically consider penalized regression techniques, such as the lasso and componentwise boosting, which can simultaneously consider all measurements and provide both, multivariable regression models for prediction and automated variable selection. However, they might be affected by the typical skewness, mean-variance-dependency or extreme values of RNA-Seq covariates and therefore could benefit from transformations of the latter. In an analytical part, we highlight preferential selection of covariates with large variances, which is problematic due to the mean-variance dependency of RNA-Seq data. In a simulation study, we compare different transformations of RNA-Seq data for potentially improving detection of important genes. Specifically, we consider standardization, the log transformation, a variance-stabilizing transformation, the Box-Cox transformation, and rank-based transformations. In addition, the prediction performance for real data from patients with kidney cancer and acute myeloid leukemia is considered. We show that signature size, identification performance, and prediction performance critically depend on the choice of a suitable transformation. Rank-based transformations perform well in all scenarios and can even outperform complex variance-stabilizing approaches. Generally, the results illustrate that the distribution and potential transformations of RNA-Seq data need to be considered as a critical step when building risk prediction models by penalized regression techniques. PMID:24416353

How extreme are extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

2016-04-01

High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

Characterization of genetic diversity of high temperature tolerance in sorghum

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As global warming becomes inevitable, the sustainability of agricultural production in US and worldwide faces serious threat from extreme weather conditions, such as drought and elevated extreme temperatures (heat waves). Among cereal crops, sorghum is considered a versatile crop for semiarid area a...

Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

2017-12-01

Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

Outcome Trajectories in Extremely Preterm Infants

PubMed Central

Carlo, Waldemar A.; Tyson, Jon E.; Langer, John C.; Walsh, Michele C.; Parikh, Nehal A.; Das, Abhik; Van Meurs, Krisa P.; Shankaran, Seetha; Stoll, Barbara J.; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Methods are required to predict prognosis with changes in clinical course. Death or neurodevelopmental impairment in extremely premature neonates can be predicted at birth/admission to the ICU by considering gender, antenatal steroids, multiple birth, birth weight, and gestational age. Predictions may be improved by using additional information available later during the clinical course. Our objective was to develop serial predictions of outcome by using prognostic factors available over the course of NICU hospitalization. METHODS: Data on infants with birth weight ≤1.0 kg admitted to 18 large academic tertiary NICUs during 1998–2005 were used to develop multivariable regression models following stepwise variable selection. Models were developed by using all survivors at specific times during hospitalization (in delivery room [n = 8713], 7-day [n = 6996], 28-day [n = 6241], and 36-week postmenstrual age [n = 5118]) to predict death or death/neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 22 months. RESULTS: Prediction of death or neurodevelopmental impairment in extremely premature infants is improved by using information available later during the clinical course. The importance of birth weight declines, whereas the importance of respiratory illness severity increases with advancing postnatal age. The c-statistic in validation models ranged from 0.74 to 0.80 with misclassification rates ranging from 0.28 to 0.30. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic models of the changing probability of individual outcome can improve outcome predictions in preterm infants. Various current and future scenarios can be modeled by input of different clinical possibilities to develop individual “outcome trajectories” and evaluate impact of possible morbidities on outcome. PMID:22689874

Advantage of Animal Models with Metabolic Flexibility for Space Research Beyond Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griko, Yuri V.; Rask, Jon C.; Raychev, Raycho

2017-01-01

As the world's space agencies and commercial entities continue to expand beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), novel approaches to carry out biomedical experiments with animals are required to address the challenge of adaptation to space flight and new planetary environments. The extended time and distance of space travel along with reduced involvement of Earth-based mission support increases the cumulative impact of the risks encountered in space. To respond to these challenges, it becomes increasingly important to develop the capability to manage an organism's self-regulatory control system, which would enable survival in extraterrestrial environments. To significantly reduce the risk to animals on future long duration space missions, we propose the use of metabolically flexible animal models as "pathfinders," which are capable of tolerating the environmental extremes exhibited in spaceflight, including altered gravity, exposure to space radiation, chemically reactive planetary environments and temperature extremes. In this report we survey several of the pivotal metabolic flexibility studies and discuss the importance of utilizing animal models with metabolic flexibility with particular attention given to the ability to suppress the organism's metabolism in spaceflight experiments beyond LEO. The presented analysis demonstrates the adjuvant benefits of these factors to minimize damage caused by exposure to spaceflight and extreme planetary environments. Examples of microorganisms and animal models with dormancy capabilities suitable for space research are considered in the context of their survivability under hostile or deadly environments outside of Earth. Potential steps toward implementation of metabolic control technology in spaceflight architecture and its benefits for animal experiments and manned space exploration missions are discussed.

Advantage of Animal Models with Metabolic Flexibility for Space Research Beyond Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griko, Yuri V.; Rask, Jon C.; Raychev, Raycho

2017-01-01

As the worlds space agencies and commercial entities continue to expand beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), novel approaches to carry out biomedical experiments with animals are required to address the challenge of adaptation to space flight and new planetary environments. The extended time and distance of space travel along with reduced involvement of Earth-based mission support increases the cumulative impact of the risks encountered in space. To respond to these challenges, it becomes increasingly important to develop the capability to manage an organisms self-regulatory control system, which would enable survival in extraterrestrial environments. To significantly reduce the risk to animals on future long duration space missions, we propose the use of metabolically flexible animal models as pathfinders, which are capable of tolerating the environmental extremes exhibited in spaceflight, including altered gravity, exposure to space radiation, chemically reactive planetary environments and temperature extremes.In this report we survey several of the pivotal metabolic flexibility studies and discuss the importance of utilizing animal models with metabolic flexibility with particular attention given to the ability to suppress the organism's metabolism in spaceflight experiments beyond LEO. The presented analysis demonstrates the adjuvant benefits of these factors to minimize damage caused by exposure to spaceflight and extreme planetary environments. Examples of microorganisms and animal models with dormancy capabilities suitable for space research are considered in the context of their survivability under hostile or deadly environments outside of Earth. Potential steps toward implementation of metabolic control technology in spaceflight architecture and its benefits for animal experiments and manned space exploration missions are discussed.

The effect of uncertainties in distance-based ranking methods for multi-criteria decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaini, Nor I.; Utyuzhnikov, Sergei V.

2017-08-01

Data in the multi-criteria decision making are often imprecise and changeable. Therefore, it is important to carry out sensitivity analysis test for the multi-criteria decision making problem. The paper aims to present a sensitivity analysis for some ranking techniques based on the distance measures in multi-criteria decision making. Two types of uncertainties are considered for the sensitivity analysis test. The first uncertainty is related to the input data, while the second uncertainty is towards the Decision Maker preferences (weights). The ranking techniques considered in this study are TOPSIS, the relative distance and trade-off ranking methods. TOPSIS and the relative distance method measure a distance from an alternative to the ideal and antiideal solutions. In turn, the trade-off ranking calculates a distance of an alternative to the extreme solutions and other alternatives. Several test cases are considered to study the performance of each ranking technique in both types of uncertainties.

Inland and coastal flooding: developments in prediction and prevention.

PubMed

Hunt, J C R

2005-06-15

We review the scientific and engineering understanding of various types of inland and coastal flooding by considering the different causes and dynamic processes involved, especially in extreme events. Clear progress has been made in the accuracy of numerical modelling of meteorological causes of floods, hydraulics of flood water movement and coastal wind-wave-surge. Probabilistic estimates from ensemble predictions and the simultaneous use of several models are recent techniques in meteorological prediction that could be considered for hydraulic and oceanographic modelling. The contribution of remotely sensed data from aircraft and satellites is also considered. The need to compare and combine statistical and computational modelling methodologies for long range forecasts and extreme events is emphasized, because this has become possible with the aid of kilometre scale computations and network grid facilities to simulate and analyse time-series and extreme events. It is noted that despite the adverse effects of climatic trends on flooding, appropriate planning of rapidly growing urban areas could mitigate some of the worst effects. However, resources for flood prevention, including research, have to be considered in relation to those for other natural disasters. Policies have to be relevant to the differing geology, meteorology and cultures of the countries affected.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M.; Ekang, L.; Fernandes, A.; Massoukina, M.; Mbah, J.; Mhanda, A.; Do Nascimento, D. J.; Peterson, T. C.; Thamba Umba, O.; Tomou, M.; Zhang, X.

2009-01-01

Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.

Verification and Implementation of Operations Safety Controls for Flight Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smalls, James R.; Jones, Cheryl L.; Carrier, Alicia S.

2010-01-01

There are several engineering disciplines, such as reliability, supportability, quality assurance, human factors, risk management, safety, etc. Safety is an extremely important engineering specialty within NASA, and the consequence involving a loss of crew is considered a catastrophic event. Safety is not difficult to achieve when properly integrated at the beginning of each space systems project/start of mission planning. The key is to ensure proper handling of safety verification throughout each flight/mission phase. Today, Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) operations engineers continue to conduct these flight product reviews across all open flight products. As such, these reviews help ensure that each mission is accomplished with safety requirements along with controls heavily embedded in applicable flight products. Most importantly, the S&MA operations engineers are required to look for important design and operations controls so that safety is strictly adhered to as well as reflected in the final flight product.

Epidemiology of ocular toxoplasmosis.

PubMed

Petersen, Eskild; Kijlstra, Aize; Stanford, Miles

2012-04-01

Retinal infection with Toxoplasma gondii is the most important cause of posterior uveitis, whereby prevalence and incidence of ocular symptoms after infection depend on socio-economic factors and the circulating parasite genotypes. Ocular toxoplasmosis is more common in South America, Central America, and the Caribbean and parts of tropical Africa as compared to Europe and Northern America, and is quite rare in China. Ocular disease in South America is more severe than in other continents due to the presence of extremely virulent genotypes of the parasite. Drinking untreated water is considered the major source of Toxoplasma infection in developing countries, whereas in the Western world the consumption of raw or undercooked meat (products) is the most important cause. Since acquired infection with T. gondii is currently a more important cause of ocular toxoplasmosis compared to congenital infection, prevention should be directed not only toward pregnant women but toward the general population.

Thermodynamic aspects of an LNG tank in fire and experimental validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hulsbosch-Dam, Corina; Atli-Veltin, Bilim; Kamperveen, Jerry; Velthuis, Han; Reinders, Johan; Spruijt, Mark; Vredeveldt, Lex

Mechanical behaviour of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tank and the thermodynamic behaviour of its containment under extreme heat load - for instance when subjected to external fire source as might occur during an accident - are extremely important when addressing safety concerns. In a scenario where external fire is present and consequent release of LNG from pressure relief valves (PRV) has occurred, escalation of the fire might occur causing difficulty for the fire response teams to approach the tank or to secure the perimeter. If the duration of the tank exposure to fire is known, the PRV opening time can be estimated based on the thermodynamic calculations. In this paper, such an accidental scenario is considered, relevant thermodynamic equations are derived and presented. Moreover, an experiment is performed with liquid nitrogen and the results are compared to the analytical ones. The analytical results match very well with the experimental observations. The resulting analytical models are suitable to be applied to other cryogenic liquids.

Extreme Fire Severity Patterns in Topographic, Convective and Wind-Driven Historical Wildfires of Mediterranean Pine Forests

PubMed Central

Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

2014-01-01

Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme severity wildfires. PMID:24465492

Extreme fire severity patterns in topographic, convective and wind-driven historical wildfires of Mediterranean pine forests.

PubMed

Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

2014-01-01

Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme severity wildfires.

Changing Pattern of Indian Monsoon Extremes: Global and Local Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Subimal; Shastri, Hiteshri; Pathak, Amey; Paul, Supantha

2017-04-01

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes have remained a major topic of discussion in the field of global change and hydro-climatology over the last decade. This attributes to multiple conclusions on changing pattern of extremes along with poor understanding of multiple processes at global and local scales associated with monsoon extremes. At a spatially aggregate scale, when number of extremes in the grids are summed over, a statistically significant increasing trend is observed for both Central India (Goswami et al., 2006) and all India (Rajeevan et al., 2008). However, such a result over Central India does not satisfy flied significance test of increase and no decrease (Krishnamurthy et al., 2009). Statistically rigorous extreme value analysis that deals with the tail of the distribution reveals a spatially non-uniform trend of extremes over India (Ghosh et al., 2012). This results into statistically significant increasing trend of spatial variability. Such an increase of spatial variability points to the importance of local factors such as deforestation and urbanization. We hypothesize that increase of spatial average of extremes is associated with the increase of events occurring over large region, while increase in spatial variability attributes to local factors. A Lagrangian approach based dynamic recycling model reveals that the major contributor of moisture to wide spread extremes is Western Indian Ocean, while land surface also contributes around 25-30% of moisture during the extremes in Central India. We further test the impacts of local urbanization on extremes and find the impacts are more visible over West central, Southern and North East India. Regional atmospheric simulations coupled with Urban Canopy Model (UCM) shows that urbanization intensifies extremes in city areas, but not uniformly all over the city. The intensification occurs over specific pockets of the urban region, resulting an increase in spatial variability even within the city. This also points to the need of setting up multiple weather stations over the city at a finer resolution for better understanding of urban extremes. We conclude that the conventional method of considering large scale factors is not sufficient for analysing the monsoon extremes and characterization of the same needs a blending of both global and local factors. Ghosh, S., Das, D., Kao, S-C. & Ganguly, A. R. Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes. Nature Clim. Change 2, 86-91 (2012) Goswami, B. N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M. S. & Xavier, P. K. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314, 1442-1445 (2006). Krishnamurthy, C. K. B., Lall, U. & Kwon, H-H. Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J. Clim. 22, 4737-4746 (2009). Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J. & Jaswal, A. K. Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L18707 (2008).

Object extraction in photogrammetric computer vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Helmut

This paper discusses state and promising directions of automated object extraction in photogrammetric computer vision considering also practical aspects arising for digital photogrammetric workstations (DPW). A review of the state of the art shows that there are only few practically successful systems on the market. Therefore, important issues for a practical success of automated object extraction are identified. A sound and most important powerful theoretical background is the basis. Here, we particularly point to statistical modeling. Testing makes clear which of the approaches are suited best and how useful they are for praxis. A key for commercial success of a practical system is efficient user interaction. As the means for data acquisition are changing, new promising application areas such as extremely detailed three-dimensional (3D) urban models for virtual television or mission rehearsal evolve.

Trends and Cost-Analysis of Lower Extremity Nerve Injury Using the National Inpatient Sample.

PubMed

Foster, Chase H; Karsy, Michael; Jensen, Michael R; Guan, Jian; Eli, Ilyas; Mahan, Mark A

2018-06-08

Peripheral nerve injuries (PNIs) of the lower extremities have been assessed in small cohort studies; however, the actual incidence, national trends, comorbidities, and cost of care in lower extremity PNI are not defined. Lack of sufficient data limits discussion on national policies, payors, and other aspects fundamental to the delivery of care in the US. To establish estimates of lower extremity PNIs incidence, associated diagnoses, and cost in the US using a comprehensive database with a minimum of a decade of data. The National Inpatient Sample was utilized to evaluate International Classification of Disease codes for specific lower extremity PNIs (9560-9568) between 2001 and 2013. Lower extremity PNIs occurred with a mean incidence of 13.3 cases per million population annually, which declined minimally from 2001 to 2013. The mean ± SEM age was 41.6 ± 0.1 yr; 61.1% of patients were males. Most were admitted via the emergency department (56.0%). PNIs occurred to the sciatic (16.6%), femoral (10.7%), tibial (6.0%), peroneal (33.4%), multiple nerves (1.3%), and other (32.0%). Associated diagnoses included lower extremity fracture (13.4%), complications of care (11.2%), open wounds (10.3%), crush injury (9.7%), and other (7.2%). Associated procedures included tibial fixation (23.3%), closure of skin (20.1%), debridement of open fractures (15.4%), fixation of other bones (13.5%), and wound debridement (14.5%). The mean annual unadjusted compounded growth rate of charges was 8.8%. The mean ± SEM annual charge over the time period was $64 031.20 ± $421.10, which was associated with the number of procedure codes (β = 0.2), length of stay (β = 0.6), and year (β = 0.1) in a multivariable analysis (P = .0001). These data describe associations in the treatment of lower extremity PNIs, which are important for considering national policies, costs, research and the delivery of care.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The paper will conclude by discussing the user needs of satellite rainfall retrievals from a climate change modelling prospective.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2010-01-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under-estimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Dealing with Non-stationarity in Intensity-Frequency-Duration Curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rengaraju, S.; Rajendran, V.; C T, D.

2017-12-01

Extremes like flood and drought are becoming frequent and more vulnerable in recent times, generally attributed to the recent revelation of climate change. One of the main concerns is that whether the present infrastructures like dams, storm water drainage networks, etc., which were designed following the so called `stationary' assumption, are capable of withstanding the expected severe extremes. Stationary assumption considers that extremes are not changing with respect to time. However, recent studies proved that climate change has altered the climate extremes both temporally and spatially. Traditionally, the observed non-stationary in the extreme precipitation is incorporated in the extreme value distributions in terms of changing parameters. Nevertheless, this raises a question which parameter needs to be changed, i.e. location or scale or shape, since either one or more of these parameters vary at a given location. Hence, this study aims to detect the changing parameters to reduce the complexity involved in the development of non-stationary IDF curve and to provide the uncertainty bound of estimated return level using Bayesian Differential Evolutionary Monte Carlo (DE-MC) algorithm. Firstly, the extreme precipitation series is extracted using Peak Over Threshold. Then, the time varying parameter(s) is(are) detected for the extracted series using Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Then, the IDF curve is constructed using Generalized Pareto Distribution incorporating non-stationarity only if the parameter(s) is(are) changing with respect to time, otherwise IDF curve will follow stationary assumption. Finally, the posterior probability intervals of estimated return revel are computed through Bayesian DE-MC approach and the non-stationary based IDF curve is compared with the stationary based IDF curve. The results of this study emphasize that the time varying parameters also change spatially and the IDF curves should incorporate non-stationarity only if there is change in the parameters, though there may be significant change in the extreme rainfall series. Our results evoke the importance of updating the infrastructure design strategies for the changing climate, by adopting the non-stationary based IDF curves.

Extreme Weather Years Drive Episodic Acidification and Brownification in Lakes in the Northeast US: Implications for Long-term Shifts in Dissolved Organic Carbon, Water Clarity, and Thermal Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strock, K.; Saros, J. E.

2017-12-01

Interannual climate variability is expected to increase over the next century, but the extent to which hydroclimatic variability influences biogeochemical processes is unclear. To determine the effects of extreme weather on surface water chemistry, a 30-year record of surface water geochemistry for 84 lakes in the northeastern U.S. was combined with landscape data and watershed-specific weather data. With these data, responses in sulfate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were characterized during extreme wet and extreme dry conditions. Episodic acidification during drought and episodic brownification (increased DOC) during wet years were detected broadly across the northeastern U.S. Episodic chemical response was linearly related to wetland coverage in lake watersheds only during extreme wet years. The results of a redundancy analysis suggest that topographic features also need to be considered and that the interplay between wetlands and their degree of connectivity to surface waters could be driving episodic acidification in this region. A subset of lakes located in Acadia National Park, Maine U.S.A. were studied to better understand the implications of regional increases of DOC in lakes. Water transparency declined across six study sites since 1995 as DOC increased. As clarity declined, some lakes experienced reduced epilimnion thickness. The degree to which transparency changed across the lakes was dependent on DOC concentration, with a larger decline in transparency occurring in clear water lakes than brown water lakes. The results presented here help to clarify the variability observed in long-term recovery from acidification and regional increases in DOC. Specifically, an increased frequency of extreme wet years may be contributing to a recent acceleration in the recovery of lake ecosystems from acidification; however, increased frequency of wet years may also lead to reduced water clarity and altered physical lake habitat. Clarifying the response of DOC, a pivotal regulator of aquatic ecosystems, to extreme weather events across gradients of landscape position and atmospheric deposition, is increasingly important for policy and management decisions as the frequency of extreme events continues to increase in this region.

Structure optimization of a micro drill bit with nonlinear constraints considering the effects of eccentricity, gyroscopic moments, lateral and torsional vibrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Danh-Tuyen; Hoang, Tien-Dat; Lee, An-Chen

2017-10-01

A micro drill structure was optimized to give minimum lateral displacement at its drill tip, which plays an extremely important role on the quality of drilled holes. A drilling system includes a spindle, chuck and micro drill bit, which are modeled as rotating Timoshenko beam elements considering axial drilling force, torque, gyroscopic moments, eccentricity and bearing reaction force. Based on our previous work, the lateral vibration at the drill tip is evaluated. It is treated as an objective function in the optimization problem. Design variables are diameter and lengths of cylindrical and conical parts of the micro drill, along with nonlinear constraints on its mass and mass center location. Results showed that the lateral vibration was reduced by 15.83 % at a cutting speed of 70000 rpm as compared to that for a commercial UNION drill. Among the design variables, we found that the length of the conical part connecting to the drill shank plays the most important factor on the lateral vibration during cutting process.

Resilience and Suicidality among Homeless Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cleverley, Kristin; Kidd, Sean A.

2011-01-01

Homeless and street-involved youth are considered an extremely high risk group, with many studies highlighting trajectories characterized by abusive, neglectful, and unstable family histories, victimization and criminal involvement while on the streets, high rates of physical and mental illness, and extremely high rates of mortality. While there…

Net Force of an Ideal Conductor on an Element of a Line of Charge Moving With Extreme Relativistic Speed

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cawley, Robert

1978-01-01

Considers the problem of determining the force on an element of a finite length line of charge moving horizontally with extreme relativistic speed through an evacuated space above an infinite plane ideal conducting surface. (SL)

Probabilistic forecasting of extreme weather events based on extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert

2016-04-01

Extreme events in weather and climate such as high wind gusts, heavy precipitation or extreme temperatures are commonly associated with high impacts on both environment and society. Forecasting extreme weather events is difficult, and very high-resolution models are needed to describe explicitly extreme weather phenomena. A prediction system for such events should therefore preferably be probabilistic in nature. Probabilistic forecasts and state estimations are nowadays common in the numerical weather prediction community. In this work, we develop a new probabilistic framework based on extreme value theory that aims to provide early warnings up to several days in advance. We consider the combined events when an observation variable Y (for instance wind speed) exceeds a high threshold y and its corresponding deterministic forecasts X also exceeds a high forecast threshold y. More specifically two problems are addressed:} We consider pairs (X,Y) of extreme events where X represents a deterministic forecast, and Y the observation variable (for instance wind speed). More specifically two problems are addressed: Given a high forecast X=x_0, what is the probability that Y>y? In other words: provide inference on the conditional probability: [ Pr{Y>y|X=x_0}. ] Given a probabilistic model for Problem 1, what is the impact on the verification analysis of extreme events. These problems can be solved with bivariate extremes (Coles, 2001), and the verification analysis in (Ferro, 2007). We apply the Ramos and Ledford (2009) parametric model for bivariate tail estimation of the pair (X,Y). The model accommodates different types of extremal dependence and asymmetry within a parsimonious representation. Results are presented using the ensemble reforecast system of the European Centre of Weather Forecasts (Hagedorn, 2008). Coles, S. (2001) An Introduction to Statistical modelling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag.Ferro, C.A.T. (2007) A probability model for verifying deterministic forecasts of extreme events. Wea. Forecasting {22}, 1089-1100.Hagedorn, R. (2008) Using the ECMWF reforecast dataset to calibrate EPS forecasts. ECMWF Newsletter, {117}, 8-13.Ramos, A., Ledford, A. (2009) A new class of models for bivariate joint tails. J.R. Statist. Soc. B {71}, 219-241.

Documentary evidence of historical floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden 1400-1800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retsö, D.

2014-09-01

This article explores documentary evidence of floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden in the pre-instrumental period (1400-1800). The survey shows that two subperiods can be considered as flood-rich, 1590-1670 and the early 18th century. The result is related to a low degree of human impact on hydrology during the period, and suggest that climatic factors, such as lower temperatures and increased precipitation connected to the so called Little Ice Age, should be considered as the main driver behind flood frequency and magnitude.

The importance of range edges for an irruptive species during extreme weather events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2015-01-01

In a changing climate where more frequent extreme weather may be more common, conservation strategies for weather-sensitive species may require consideration of habitat in the edges of species’ ranges, even though non-core areas may be unoccupied in ‘normal’ years. Our results highlight the conservation importance of range edges in providing refuge from extreme events, such as drought, and climate change.

P value and the theory of hypothesis testing: an explanation for new researchers.

PubMed

Biau, David Jean; Jolles, Brigitte M; Porcher, Raphaël

2010-03-01

In the 1920s, Ronald Fisher developed the theory behind the p value and Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson developed the theory of hypothesis testing. These distinct theories have provided researchers important quantitative tools to confirm or refute their hypotheses. The p value is the probability to obtain an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed presuming the null hypothesis of no effect is true; it gives researchers a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. As commonly used, investigators will select a threshold p value below which they will reject the null hypothesis. The theory of hypothesis testing allows researchers to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis of some effect. As commonly used, investigators choose Type I error (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true) and Type II error (accepting the null hypothesis when it is false) levels and determine some critical region. If the test statistic falls into that critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Despite similarities between the two, the p value and the theory of hypothesis testing are different theories that often are misunderstood and confused, leading researchers to improper conclusions. Perhaps the most common misconception is to consider the p value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true rather than the probability of obtaining the difference observed, or one that is more extreme, considering the null is true. Another concern is the risk that an important proportion of statistically significant results are falsely significant. Researchers should have a minimum understanding of these two theories so that they are better able to plan, conduct, interpret, and report scientific experiments.

[Evaluation of 12 pilot projects to improve outpatient palliative care].

PubMed

Schmidt-Wolf, G; Elsner, F; Lindena, G; Hilgers, R-D; Heussen, N; Rolke, R; Ostgathe, C; Radbruch, L

2013-12-01

With a priority programme the German Cancer Aid supported the development of quality-assured outpatient palliative care to cover the whole country. The 12 regional pilot projects funded with the aim to improve outpatient palliative care in different models and different frameworks were concurrently monitored and evaluated. The supported projects, starting and ending individually, documented all patients who were cared for using HOPE (Hospice and palliative care evaluation) and MIDOS (Minimal documentation system for palliative patients). Total data were analyzed for 3239 patients decriptively. In addition to the quantitative data the experiences of the projects were recorded in a number of workshops (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012). In particular, the experiences reported in the final meeting in July 2012 were considered for this article as well as the final reports for the German Cancer Aid. In the quantitative evaluation 85.6% of 3239 palliative care patients had a cancer diagnosis. In all model projects the goal of a network with close cooperation of primary providers, social support, and outpatient and inpatient specialist services has been achieved. For all projects, the initial financing of the German Cancer Aid was extremely important, because contracts with health insurance funds were negotiated slowly, and could then be built on the experiences with the projects. The participants of the project-completion meeting emphasized the need to carry out a market analysis before starting palliative care organizations considering the different regional structures and target groups of patients. Education, training and continuing education programs contribute significantly to the network. A reliably funded coordination center/case management across all institutions is extremely important. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

Estimation of Future Return Levels for Heavy Rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula: Comparison of Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parey, S.

2014-12-01

F. J. Acero1, S. Parey2, T.T.H. Hoang2, D. Dacunha-Castelle31Dpto. Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. de Elvas s/n, 06006, Badajoz 2EDF/R&D, 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France 3Laboratoire de Mathématiques, Université Paris 11, Orsay, France Trends can already be detected in daily rainfall amount in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), and this will have an impact on the extreme levels. In this study, we compare different ways to estimate future return levels for heavy rainfall, based on the statistical extreme value theory. Both Peaks over Threshold (POT) and block maxima with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution will be used and their results compared when linear trends are assumed in the parameters: threshold and scale parameter for POT and location and scale parameter for GEV. But rainfall over the IP is a special variable in that a large number of the values are 0. Thus, the impact of taking this into account is discussed too. Another approach is then tested, based on the evolutions of the mean and variance obtained from the time series of rainy days only, and of the number of rainy days. A statistical test, similar to that designed for temperature in Parey et al. 2013, is used to assess if the trends in extremes can be considered as mostly due to these evolutions when considering only rainy days. The results show that it is mainly the case: the extremes of the residuals, after removing the trends in mean and standard deviation, cannot be differentiated from those of a stationary process. Thus, the future return levels can be estimated from the stationary return level of these residuals and an estimation of the future mean and standard deviation. Moreover, an estimation of the future number of rainy days is used to retrieve the return levels for all days. All of these comparisons are made for an ensemble of high quality rainfall time series observed in the Iberian Peninsula over the period 1961-2010, from which we want to estimate a 20-year return level expected in 2020. The evolutions and the impact of the different approaches will be discussed for 3 seasons: fall, spring and winter. Parey S., Hoang T.T.H., Dacunha-Castelle D.: The importance of mean and variance in predicting changes in temperature extremes, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, 1-12, 2013.

Pediatric fractures through the eyes of parents: an observational study.

PubMed

Sofu, Hakan; Gursu, Sarper; Kockara, Nizamettin; Issin, Ahmet; Oner, Ali; Camurcu, Yalkin

2015-01-01

The present study is an observational cross-sectional study. The main purpose of this research was to analyze the perception and behaviors of parents in a series of pediatric upper extremity fracture cases. Hundred and seventeen patients younger than 12 years who were conservatively treated for the upper extremity fracture were included in our study. Parents of the patients were requested to answer a family-centered questionnaire related to their child's fracture and its treatment. When the parents were asked whether they believe casting would be sufficient or not as the treatment of their child's fracture, 84.6% answered 'yes', 13.7% answered 'I am not sure,' and 1.7% answered 'no.' Sixty-four of the parents were not worried about any residual defect in joint or extremity functions related to fracture, whereas 21 were worried and 32 were not sure on this. The rate of searching further information about the child's fracture was 34.2% and the mostly used source was the Internet. Twenty-eight of the 117 respondents (23.9%) emphasized that they would reduce the time their child spend outside the home at least for a while after the removal of cast. When conservatively treating a child's fracture, physicians dealing with traumatology should always consider the parents' perception and behaviors as critically important.

The remarkable convergence of skull shape in crocodilians and toothed whales

PubMed Central

Evans, Alistair R.; Fitzgerald, Erich M. G.; Adams, Justin W.; Clausen, Philip D.; McHenry, Colin R.

2017-01-01

The striking resemblance of long-snouted aquatic mammals and reptiles has long been considered an example of morphological convergence, yet the true cause of this similarity remains untested. We addressed this deficit through three-dimensional morphometric analysis of the full diversity of crocodilian and toothed whale (Odontoceti) skull shapes. Our focus on biomechanically important aspects of shape allowed us to overcome difficulties involved in comparing mammals and reptiles, which have fundamental differences in the number and position of skull bones. We examined whether diet, habitat and prey size correlated with skull shape using phylogenetically informed statistical procedures. Crocodilians and toothed whales have a similar range of skull shapes, varying from extremely short and broad to extremely elongate. This spectrum of shapes represented more of the total variation in our dataset than between phylogenetic groups. The most elongate species (river dolphins and gharials) are extremely convergent in skull shape, clustering outside of the range of the other taxa. Our results suggest the remarkable convergence between long-snouted river dolphins and gharials is driven by diet rather than physical factors intrinsic to riverine environments. Despite diverging approximately 288 million years ago, crocodilians and odontocetes have evolved a remarkably similar morphological solution to feeding on similar prey. PMID:28275142

The remarkable convergence of skull shape in crocodilians and toothed whales.

PubMed

McCurry, Matthew R; Evans, Alistair R; Fitzgerald, Erich M G; Adams, Justin W; Clausen, Philip D; McHenry, Colin R

2017-03-15

The striking resemblance of long-snouted aquatic mammals and reptiles has long been considered an example of morphological convergence, yet the true cause of this similarity remains untested. We addressed this deficit through three-dimensional morphometric analysis of the full diversity of crocodilian and toothed whale (Odontoceti) skull shapes. Our focus on biomechanically important aspects of shape allowed us to overcome difficulties involved in comparing mammals and reptiles, which have fundamental differences in the number and position of skull bones. We examined whether diet, habitat and prey size correlated with skull shape using phylogenetically informed statistical procedures. Crocodilians and toothed whales have a similar range of skull shapes, varying from extremely short and broad to extremely elongate. This spectrum of shapes represented more of the total variation in our dataset than between phylogenetic groups. The most elongate species (river dolphins and gharials) are extremely convergent in skull shape, clustering outside of the range of the other taxa. Our results suggest the remarkable convergence between long-snouted river dolphins and gharials is driven by diet rather than physical factors intrinsic to riverine environments. Despite diverging approximately 288 million years ago, crocodilians and odontocetes have evolved a remarkably similar morphological solution to feeding on similar prey. © 2017 The Author(s).

Use of local Moran's I and GIS to identify pollution hotspots of Pb in urban soils of Galway, Ireland.

PubMed

Zhang, Chaosheng; Luo, Lin; Xu, Weilin; Ledwith, Valerie

2008-07-15

Pollution hotspots in urban soils need to be identified for better environmental management. It is important to know if there are hotspots and if the hotspots are statistically significant. In this study identification of pollution hotspots was investigated using Pb concentrations in urban soils of Galway City in Ireland as an example, and the influencing factors on results of hotspot identification were investigated. The index of local Moran's I is a useful tool for identifying pollution hotspots of Pb pollution in urban soils, and for classifying them into spatial clusters and spatial outliers. The results were affected by the definition of weight function, data transformation and existence of extreme values. Compared with the results for the positively skewed raw data, the transformed data and data with extreme values excluded revealed a larger area for the high value spatial clusters in the city centre. While it is hard to decide the best way of using this index, it is suggested that all these influencing factors should be considered until reasonable and reliable results are obtained. GIS mapping can be applied to help evaluate the results via visualization of the spatial patterns. Meanwhile, selected pollution hotspots (extreme values) in this study were confirmed by re-analyses and re-sampling.

Extreme Growth Failure is a Common Presentation of Ligase IV Deficiency

PubMed Central

Murray, Jennie E; Bicknell, Louise S; Yigit, Gökhan; Duker, Angela L; van Kogelenberg, Margriet; Haghayegh, Sara; Wieczorek, Dagmar; Kayserili, Hülya; Albert, Michael H; Wise, Carol A; Brandon, January; Kleefstra, Tjitske; Warris, Adilia; van der Flier, Michiel; Bamforth, J Steven; Doonanco, Kurston; Adès, Lesley; Ma, Alan; Field, Michael; Johnson, Diana; Shackley, Fiona; Firth, Helen; Woods, C Geoffrey; Nürnberg, Peter; Gatti, Richard A; Hurles, Matthew; Bober, Michael B; Wollnik, Bernd; Jackson, Andrew P

2014-01-01

Ligase IV syndrome is a rare differential diagnosis for Nijmegen breakage syndrome owing to a shared predisposition to lympho-reticular malignancies, significant microcephaly, and radiation hypersensitivity. Only 16 cases with mutations in LIG4 have been described to date with phenotypes varying from malignancy in developmentally normal individuals, to severe combined immunodeficiency and early mortality. Here, we report the identification of biallelic truncating LIG4 mutations in 11 patients with microcephalic primordial dwarfism presenting with restricted prenatal growth and extreme postnatal global growth failure (average OFC −10.1 s.d., height −5.1 s.d.). Subsequently, most patients developed thrombocytopenia and leucopenia later in childhood and many were found to have previously unrecognized immunodeficiency following molecular diagnosis. None have yet developed malignancy, though all patients tested had cellular radiosensitivity. A genotype–phenotype correlation was also noted with position of truncating mutations corresponding to disease severity. This work extends the phenotypic spectrum associated with LIG4 mutations, establishing that extreme growth retardation with microcephaly is a common presentation of bilallelic truncating mutations. Such growth failure is therefore sufficient to consider a diagnosis of LIG4 deficiency and early recognition of such cases is important as bone marrow failure, immunodeficiency, and sometimes malignancy are long term sequelae of this disorder. PMID:24123394

Inter-model variability in hydrological extremes projections for Amazonian sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lázaro de Siqueira Júnior, José; Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme; Tomasella, Javier

2014-05-01

Irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process drive uncertainties in Climate Change projections. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, mainly when associated to extreme events, and difficult the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. The use of different climate model's projections allows to aboard uncertainties issues allowing the use of multiple runs to explore a wide range of potential impacts and its implications for potential vulnerabilities. Statistical approaches for analyses of extreme values are usually based on stationarity assumptions. However, nonstationarity is relevant at the time scales considered for extreme value analyses and could have great implications in dynamic complex systems, mainly under climate change transformations. Because this, it is required to consider the nonstationarity in the statistical distribution parameters. We carried out a study of the dispersion in hydrological extremes projections using climate change projections from several climate models to feed the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Spatial Research, MHD-INPE, applied in Amazonian sub-basins. This model is a large-scale hydrological model that uses a TopModel approach to solve runoff generation processes at the grid-cell scale. MHD-INPE model was calibrated for 1970-1990 using observed meteorological data and comparing observed and simulated discharges by using several performance coeficients. Hydrological Model integrations were performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Because climate models simulate the variability of the climate system in statistical terms rather than reproduce the historical behavior of climate variables, the performances of the model's runs during the historical period, when feed with climate model data, were tested using descriptors of the Flow Duration Curves. The analyses of projected extreme values were carried out considering the nonstationarity of the GEV distribution parameters and compared with extremes events in present time. Results show inter-model variability in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. Such dispersion implies different degrees of socio-economic impacts associated to extreme hydrological events. Despite the no existence of one optimum result, this variability allows the analyses of adaptation strategies and its potential vulnerabilities.

Multiscale Measurement of Extreme Response Style

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bolt, Daniel M.; Newton, Joseph R.

2011-01-01

This article extends a methodological approach considered by Bolt and Johnson for the measurement and control of extreme response style (ERS) to the analysis of rating data from multiple scales. Specifically, it is shown how the simultaneous analysis of item responses across scales allows for more accurate identification of ERS, and more effective…

Comparison of Extreme Pressure Additive Treat Rates in Soybean and Mineral Oils Under Boundary Lubrication Conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Traditionally, it is considered that, under boundary lubrication conditions, the reduction in friction and wear is mostly dependent on Extreme Pressure (EP) additives, rather than the basestock. However, several studies indicate that vegetable oils also contribute to the lubricity under this regime...

Birth of Industry 5.0: Making Sense of Big Data with Artificial Intelligence, "The Internet of Things" and Next-Generation Technology Policy.

PubMed

Özdemir, Vural; Hekim, Nezih

2018-01-01

Driverless cars with artificial intelligence (AI) and automated supermarkets run by collaborative robots (cobots) working without human supervision have sparked off new debates: what will be the impacts of extreme automation, turbocharged by the Internet of Things (IoT), AI, and the Industry 4.0, on Big Data and omics implementation science? The IoT builds on (1) broadband wireless internet connectivity, (2) miniaturized sensors embedded in animate and inanimate objects ranging from the house cat to the milk carton in your smart fridge, and (3) AI and cobots making sense of Big Data collected by sensors. Industry 4.0 is a high-tech strategy for manufacturing automation that employs the IoT, thus creating the Smart Factory. Extreme automation until "everything is connected to everything else" poses, however, vulnerabilities that have been little considered to date. First, highly integrated systems are vulnerable to systemic risks such as total network collapse in the event of failure of one of its parts, for example, by hacking or Internet viruses that can fully invade integrated systems. Second, extreme connectivity creates new social and political power structures. If left unchecked, they might lead to authoritarian governance by one person in total control of network power, directly or through her/his connected surrogates. We propose Industry 5.0 that can democratize knowledge coproduction from Big Data, building on the new concept of symmetrical innovation. Industry 5.0 utilizes IoT, but differs from predecessor automation systems by having three-dimensional (3D) symmetry in innovation ecosystem design: (1) a built-in safe exit strategy in case of demise of hyperconnected entrenched digital knowledge networks. Importantly, such safe exists are orthogonal-in that they allow "digital detox" by employing pathways unrelated/unaffected by automated networks, for example, electronic patient records versus material/article trails on vital medical information; (2) equal emphasis on both acceleration and deceleration of innovation if diminishing returns become apparent; and (3) next generation social science and humanities (SSH) research for global governance of emerging technologies: "Post-ELSI Technology Evaluation Research" (PETER). Importantly, PETER considers the technology opportunity costs, ethics, ethics-of-ethics, framings (epistemology), independence, and reflexivity of SSH research in technology policymaking. Industry 5.0 is poised to harness extreme automation and Big Data with safety, innovative technology policy, and responsible implementation science, enabled by 3D symmetry in innovation ecosystem design.

The Top 10 Challenges in Extreme-Scale Visual Analytics

PubMed Central

Wong, Pak Chung; Shen, Han-Wei; Johnson, Christopher R.; Chen, Chaomei; Ross, Robert B.

2013-01-01

In this issue of CG&A, researchers share their R&D findings and results on applying visual analytics (VA) to extreme-scale data. Having surveyed these articles and other R&D in this field, we’ve identified what we consider the top challenges of extreme-scale VA. To cater to the magazine’s diverse readership, our discussion evaluates challenges in all areas of the field, including algorithms, hardware, software, engineering, and social issues. PMID:24489426

Spatial Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships Using Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupa, Chandra; Mujumdar, Pradeep

2016-04-01

In urban areas, quantification of extreme precipitation is important in the design of storm water drains and other infrastructure. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are generally used to obtain design return level for a given duration and return period. Due to lack of availability of extreme precipitation data for sufficiently large number of years, estimating the probability of extreme events is difficult. Typically, a single station data is used to obtain the design return levels for various durations and return periods, which are used in the design of urban infrastructure for the entire city. In an urban setting, the spatial variation of precipitation can be high; the precipitation amounts and patterns often vary within short distances of less than 5 km. Therefore it is crucial to study the uncertainties in the spatial variation of return levels for various durations. In this work, the extreme precipitation is modeled spatially using the Bayesian hierarchical analysis and the spatial variation of return levels is studied. The analysis is carried out with Block Maxima approach for defining the extreme precipitation, using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for Bangalore city, Karnataka state, India. Daily data for nineteen stations in and around Bangalore city is considered in the study. The analysis is carried out for summer maxima (March - May), monsoon maxima (June - September) and the annual maxima rainfall. In the hierarchical analysis, the statistical model is specified in three layers. The data layer models the block maxima, pooling the extreme precipitation from all the stations. In the process layer, the latent spatial process characterized by geographical and climatological covariates (lat-lon, elevation, mean temperature etc.) which drives the extreme precipitation is modeled and in the prior level, the prior distributions that govern the latent process are modeled. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Metropolis Hastings algorithm within a Gibbs sampler) is used to obtain the samples of parameters from the posterior distribution of parameters. The spatial maps of return levels for specified return periods, along with the associated uncertainties, are obtained for the summer, monsoon and annual maxima rainfall. Considering various covariates, the best fit model is selected using Deviance Information Criteria. It is observed that the geographical covariates outweigh the climatological covariates for the monsoon maxima rainfall (latitude and longitude). The best covariates for summer maxima and annual maxima rainfall are mean summer precipitation and mean monsoon precipitation respectively, including elevation for both the cases. The scale invariance theory, which states that statistical properties of a process observed at various scales are governed by the same relationship, is used to disaggregate the daily rainfall to hourly scales. The spatial maps of the scale are obtained for the study area. The spatial maps of IDF relationships thus generated are useful in storm water designs, adequacy analysis and identifying the vulnerable flooding areas.

Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is a presentation titled Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures that was given for the National Center for Environmental Economics

Ignimbrite as a substrate for endolithic life in the hyper-arid Atacama Desert: Implications for the search for life on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wierzchos, Jacek; Davila, Alfonso F.; Artieda, Octavio; Cámara-Gallego, Beatriz; de los Ríos, Asunción; Nealson, Kenneth H.; Valea, Sergio; Teresa García-González, M.; Ascaso, Carmen

2013-06-01

The hyper-arid core of the Atacama Desert in Chile is considered the driest and most life-limited place on Earth, with few habitats capable of sustaining an active microbial ecosystem. As such, it is one of the best terrestrial analogues of the extreme arid conditions on Mars, and an ideal environment to explore survival and biological adaptation strategies as the environment becomes increasingly dry. Here we show that weakly welded rhyolitic ignimbrites in this desert are abundantly colonized by endolithic cyanobacteria and associated heterotrophic bacteria. We propose that the porous ignimbrite interior provides protection from damaging UV radiation and excessive levels of visible light. Rock porosity also favors cell hydration through water retention after scarce rainfall events, even when the surrounding environment remains stubbornly dry. This is the first known example of an endolithic microbial community colonizing ignimbrite rocks in an extremely dry environment. The existence of a habitat capable of supporting abundant phototrophic and heterotrophic communities in an environment that precludes most life forms suggests that, if similar deposits are found on Mars, these should be considered important targets in the search for life. Indeed, ignimbrite rocks have been tentatively identified in Gale Crater, the landing site of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission and could be directly analyzed by its rover Curiosity.

Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulygin, Valerii

2016-04-01

Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as amore » three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC`s PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described.« less

NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations: Science Operations Development for Human Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Mary S.

2014-01-01

The purpose of NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) mission 16 in 2012 was to evaluate and compare the performance of a defined series of representative near-Earth asteroid (NEA) extravehicular activity (EVA) tasks under different conditions and combinations of work systems, constraints, and assumptions considered for future human NEA exploration missions. NEEMO 16 followed NASA's 2011 Desert Research and Technology Studies (D-RATS), the primary focus of which was understanding the implications of communication latency, crew size, and work system combinations with respect to scientific data quality, data management, crew workload, and crew/mission control interactions. The 1-g environment precluded meaningful evaluation of NEA EVA translation, worksite stabilization, sampling, or instrument deployment techniques. Thus, NEEMO missions were designed to provide an opportunity to perform a preliminary evaluation of these important factors for each of the conditions being considered. NEEMO 15 also took place in 2011 and provided a first look at many of the factors, but the mission was cut short due to a hurricane threat before all objectives were completed. ARES Directorate (KX) personnel consulted with JSC engineers to ensure that high-fidelity planetary science protocols were incorporated into NEEMO mission architectures. ARES has been collaborating with NEEMO mission planners since NEEMO 9 in 2006, successively building upon previous developments to refine science operations concepts within engineering constraints; it is expected to continue the collaboration as NASA's human exploration mission plans evolve.

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Regional flood impact assessment for Kiel and Eckernförde, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shustikova, Iuliia; Viavattene, Christophe; Seiß, Guntram

2017-04-01

It is well-observed that extreme flood events bring considerable destruction to coastal communities. The estimates of damage increases when direct and indirect losses are both considered in the assessment. This study applied the INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model which is designed to estimate and compare not only tangible but also intangible losses such as risk to life, recovery mechanisms and household displacement. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was performed in order to compare hotspots of high flood risk on the regional scale and detect which impact indicators influence results the most. INDRA allowed assessing the following impact indicators: direct damages to buildings and roads, transport disruption, risk to life and financial recovery mechanisms of private households and businesses. The focus was on two hotspots of flood risk, where direct and indirect impacts from 200 years flood were assessed and analyzed in terms of relative importance to the region. The region here was defined as municipalities located on the Baltic Sea coast within the Schleswig-Holstein state, Germany. The hotspots are the towns of Kiel and Eckernförde. They are urban areas with a high concentration of people and assets, which previously experienced extreme flood events. From the performed investigation it was found out that modeled flood differently impacts Kiel and Eckernförde. The results produced by MCA show that the scores of direct and indirect damage are slightly higher in Eckernförde than in Kiel. Transport disruption is a compelling element in the performed regional impact assessment and demonstrated immense weight. Extreme events may pose significant direct and indirect impacts on the coastal roads, obstructing not only the access to important landmarks such as hospitals, train stations, harbors, etc. but also to contiguous municipalities. Yet, the analysis showed that other impact indicators are rather of local importance and would not cause vast damage on a regional scale. Nonetheless, the study suggests, that these effects should not be underestimated in terms of losses.

Breaking the News in Spinal Cord Injury

PubMed Central

Kirshblum, Steven; Fichtenbaum, Joyce

2008-01-01

Summary: Breaking the bad news in terms of prognosis for significant motor recovery following a neurologically complete spinal cord injury (SCI) is one of the most difficult tasks for the spinal cord medicine specialist. Learning the skills to facilitate this communication is extremely important to better assist patients to understand their prognosis as well as foster hope for their future. If bad news is delivered poorly it can cause confusion and long-lasting distress and resentment; if done well, it may assist understanding, adjustment, and acceptance. This article provides the physician who cares for patients with SCI with some concepts to consider when discussing prognosis with patients and their families. PMID:18533406

Verruciform xanthoma of the penis: A rare benign lesion that simulates carcinoma.

PubMed

De Rose, Aldo Franco; Tosi, Mattia; Mantica, Guglielmo; Piol, Nataniele; Toncini, Carlo; Terrone, Carlo

2016-12-30

Verruciform xanthoma is a rare and benign condition predominantly affecting the oral cavity, but also skin and female anogenital mucosa. It can be flat, papular-warty or crateriform-cystic. Furthermore it can simulate HPV viral lesion such as condyloma and malignant neoplasia such as verrucous squamous cell carcinoma. An accurate diagnosis is important to avoid overtreatment, considering it is a benign lesion that does not require any radical treatment. We present an extremely rare case of a 64 year-old man with a small, slighty raised, gray reddish-dotted lesion on the left portion of the ventral side of his glans.

Feminism and reproductive technologies.

PubMed

Callahan, Joan C

1994-01-01

... Rowland is a social scientist and a radical feminist, and she has undertaken the task of making readers think twice about reproductive technologies. If a reader isn't thinking twice, it will not do to blame it on Rowland and the shortcomings of her book. She has a good deal to say that is extremely important and that needs to be considered by anyone who is interested in the moral issues, in general, and the issues for women and children, in particular, that are raised by the new and emerging reproductive technologies. Her book should be widely read. And it should generate the worries it is written to generate.

Nutritional assessment of elderly people.

PubMed

Cena, H; Madini, N; Zaccardo, A; Rondanelli, M; Roggi, C

2008-09-01

Since today's society is characterised by an increase in the number of elderly persons, who are subject more than any other group to an alteration in their state of nutrition, in this review we propose the possible methods that can be used for an accurate nutritional diagnosis in this age group. Considering that malnutrition, sarcopenia and motor disability are factors that are more likely to occur with aging, it is extremely important for certain clinical anamnestic parameters, such as biohumoral and anthropometric indicators, but also specific tables and questionnaires, to become standard routine practice in health care in order to facilitate the diagnosis of these possible events.

Electric field effects on ion currents in satellite wakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parks, D. E.; Katz, I.

1985-01-01

Small currents associated with satellite spin, dielectric conduction, or trace concentrations of H+, can have a substantial effect on the potential of a satellite and the particle currents reaching its surface. The importance of such small currents at altitudes below about 300 km stems from the extremely small 0+ currents impinging on the wake-side of the spacecraft. The particle current on the downstream side of the AE-C satellite is considered. Theoretical estimates based on a newly described constant of the motion of a particle indicate that accounting for small concentrations of H+ remove a major discrepancy between calculated and measured currents.

Imaging of upper extremity stress fractures in the athlete.

PubMed

Anderson, Mark W

2006-07-01

Although it is much less common than injuries in the lower extremities, an upper extremity stress injury can have a significant impact on an athlete. If an accurate and timely diagnosis is to be made, the clinician must have a high index of suspicion of a stress fracture in any athlete who is involved in a throwing, weightlifting, or upper extremity weight-bearing sport and presents with chronic pain in the upper extremity. Imaging should play an integral role in the work-up of these patients; if initial radiographs are unrevealing, further cross-sectional imaging should be strongly considered. Although a three-phase bone scan is highly sensitive in this regard, MRI has become the study of choice at most centers.

Stationary and non-stationary extreme value modeling of extreme temperature in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Kassim, Suraiya

2014-09-01

Extreme annual temperature of eighteen stations in Malaysia is fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Stationary and non-stationary models with trend are considered for each station and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that three out of eighteen stations i.e. Bayan Lepas, Labuan and Subang favor a model which is linear in the location parameter. A hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to investigate the existence of similar behavior among the stations. Three distinct clusters are found in which one of them consists of the stations that favor the non-stationary model. T-year estimated return levels of the extreme temperature are provided based on the chosen models.

[Hypercholesterolemia: a therapeutic approach].

PubMed

Moráis López, A; Lama More, R A; Dalmau Serra, J

2009-05-01

High blood cholesterol levels represent an important cardiovascular risk factor. Hypercholesterolemia is defined as levels of total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol above 95th percentile for age and gender. For the paediatric population, selective screening is recommended in children older than 2 years who are overweight, with a family history of early cardiovascular disease or whose parents have high cholesterol levels. Initial therapeutic approach includes diet therapy, appropriate physical activity and healthy lifestyle changes. Drug treatment should be considered in children from the age of 10 who, after having followed appropriate diet recommendations, still have very high LDL-cholesterol levels or moderately high levels with concomitant risk factors. In case of extremely high LDL-cholesterol levels, drug treatment should be taken into consideration at earlier ages (8 years old). Modest response is usually observed with bile acid-binding resins. Statins can be considered first-choice drugs, once evidence on their efficacy and safety has been shown.

Treatment of Calcaneal Fracture With Severe Soft Tissue Injury and Osteomyelitis: A Case Report.

PubMed

Karns, Michael; Dailey, Steven K; Archdeacon, Michael T

2015-01-01

Advancements in surgical technique have resulted in the ability to reconstruct lower extremity injuries that would have previously been treated by amputation. Currently, a paucity of data is available specifically addressing limb amputation versus reconstruction for calcaneal fractures with severe soft tissue compromise. Reconstruction leaves the patient with their native limb; however, multiple surgeries, infections, chronic pain, and a poor functional outcome are very real possibilities. We present the case of a complex calcaneal fracture complicated by soft tissue injury and osteomyelitis that highlights the importance of shared decision-making between patient and surgeon when considering reconstruction versus amputation. This case exemplifies the need for open communication concerning the risks and benefits of treatment modalities while simultaneously considering the patient's expectations and desired outcomes. Copyright © 2015 American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weak cosmic censorship: as strong as ever.

PubMed

Hod, Shahar

2008-03-28

Spacetime singularities that arise in gravitational collapse are always hidden inside of black holes. This is the essence of the weak cosmic censorship conjecture. The hypothesis, put forward by Penrose 40 years ago, is still one of the most important open questions in general relativity. In this Letter, we reanalyze extreme situations which have been considered as counterexamples to the weak cosmic censorship conjecture. In particular, we consider the absorption of scalar particles with large angular momentum by a black hole. Ignoring back reaction effects may lead one to conclude that the incident wave may overspin the black hole, thereby exposing its inner singularity to distant observers. However, we show that when back reaction effects are properly taken into account, the stability of the black-hole event horizon is irrefutable. We therefore conclude that cosmic censorship is actually respected in this type of gedanken experiments.

Concept definition study for an extremely large aerophysics range facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swift, H.; Witcofski, R.

1992-01-01

The development of a large aerophysical ballistic range facility is considered to study large-scale hypersonic flows at high Reynolds numbers for complex shapes. A two-stage light gas gun is considered for the hypervelocity launcher, and the extensive range tankage is discussed with respect to blast suppression, model disposition, and the sabot impact tank. A layout is given for the large aerophysics facility, and illustrations are provided for key elements such as the guide rail. The paper shows that such a facility could be used to launch models with diameters approaching 250 mm at velocities of 6.5 km/s with peak achievable accelerations of not more than 85.0 kgs. The envisioned range would provide gas-flow facilities capable of controlling the modeled quiescent atmospheric conditions. The facility is argued to be a feasible and important step in the investigation and experiment of such hypersonic vehicles as the National Aerospace Plane.

The Importance of the Nothofagus Forest on Snowmelt Process linked to floods in Mountain Basins of Tierra del Fuego, Argentina as Input for Land Use Policies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturraspe, R. J.; Urciuolo, A. B.; Lofiego, R.

2007-05-01

The conception and application of policies and best practices for the appropriate land use from the view point of extreme floods attenuation, must be based on scientist acknowledge of the basin response, reaching each one of the hydrological cycle's components. That condition is necessary as a start point for an integrated intersectoral management of water and forest resources at the basin scale, especially when forest logging or forest urbanization appear as land use alternatives with socioeconomic importance, confronting the natural roll of the forest in the basin. Within this framework, this article analyzes the forest importance on the seasonal snow-pack and snow-melting process in the mountain basin environment of Tierra del Fuego Island, Argentina, where a mixed rain-snow hydrological regimen and a canopy of native Nothofagus forest are basic features considered. Extreme floods events are related to heavy rain and snow-melting combination. In theory, the worst scenario is the exceptional rain occurrence at the moment of the maximum snow storage, air temperature higher than 0ºC in the whole basin, and previous wet conditions. On this scenario we analyze aspects that indicate forest influences on the snow pack distribution and evolution which are favorable to the attenuation of the intensity of melting process which are induced by rain and temperate air mass. Results were obtained in the context of the EPIC FORCE (EU) Project.

Extreme value analysis in biometrics.

PubMed

Hüsler, Jürg

2009-04-01

We review some approaches of extreme value analysis in the context of biometrical applications. The classical extreme value analysis is based on iid random variables. Two different general methods are applied, which will be discussed together with biometrical examples. Different estimation, testing, goodness-of-fit procedures for applications are discussed. Furthermore, some non-classical situations are considered where the data are possibly dependent, where a non-stationary behavior is observed in the data or where the observations are not univariate. A few open problems are also stated.

A walk on the tundra: Host-parasite interactions in an extreme environment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Arctic is a vast, sparsely populated region that has captured the imagination and interest of explorers and scientists for generations. It is an environment of extremes and has been considered by many an inhospitable landscape and the last frontier to be explored. Despite the ‘hardships’ impos...

Documentary evidence of historical floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden 1400-1800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retsö, D.

2015-03-01

This article explores documentary evidence of floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden in the pre-instrumental period (1400-1800). The survey shows that two sub-periods can be considered as flood-rich, 1590-1670 and the early 18th century. The result related to a low degree of human impact on hydrology during the period, suggests that climatic factors, such as lower temperatures and increased precipitation connected to the so-called Little Ice Age rather than large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, should be considered as the main driver behind flood frequency and magnitude.

Terrestrial environment (climatic) criteria guidelines for use in aerospace vehicle development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E. (Compiler); Hill, C. K. (Compiler)

1982-01-01

Guidelines on terrestrial environment data specifically applicable for NASA aerospace vehicles and associated equipment development are provided. The general distribution of natural environmental extremes in the conterminous United States that may be needed to specify design criteria in the transportation of space vehicle subsystems and components is considered. Atmospheric attenuation was included, since certain Earth orbital experiment missions are influenced by the Earth's atmosphere. Climatic extremes for worldwide operational needs is also included. Atmospheric chemistry, seismic criteria, and a mathematical model to predict atmospheric dispersion of aerospace engine exhaust cloud rise and growth are discussed. Atmospheric cloud phenomena are considered.

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Microbial ecology of extreme environments: Antarctic yeasts and growth in substrate-limited habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vishniac, H. S.

1985-01-01

The high, dry valleys of the Ross Desert of Antarctic, characterized by extremely low temperatures, aridity and a depauperate biota, are used as an analog of the postulated extreme climates of other planetary bodies of the Solar System to test the hypothesis that if life could be supported by Ross, it might be possible where similar conditions prevail. The previously considered sterility of the Ross Desert soil ecosystem has yielded up an indigenous yeast, Cryptoccus vishniacci, which is able to resist the extremes of cold, wet and dry freezing, and long arid periods, while making minimal nutritional demands on the soil.

Decay Theory of Immediate Memory: From Brown (1958) to Today (2014)

PubMed Central

Ricker, Timothy J.; Vergauwe, Evie; Cowan, Nelson

2014-01-01

This work takes a historical approach to discussing Brown’s (1958) paper, “Some Tests of the Decay Theory of Immediate Memory”. This work was and continues to be extremely influential in the field of forgetting over the short-term. Its primary importance is in establishing a theoretical basis to consider a process of fundamental importance, memory decay. Brown (1958) established that time-based explanations of forgetting can account for both memory capacity and forgetting of information over short periods of time. We discuss this view both in the context of the intellectual climate at the time of the paper’s publication and in the context of the modern intellectual climate. The overarching theme we observe is that decay is as controversial now as it was in the 1950s and 1960s. PMID:24853316

The Joint Statistics of California Temperature and Precipitation as a Function of the Large-scale State of the Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OBrien, J. P.; O'Brien, T. A.

2015-12-01

Single climatic extremes have a strong and disproportionate effect on society and the natural environment. However, the joint occurrence of two or more concurrent extremes has the potential to negatively impact these areas of life in ways far greater than any single event could. California, USA, home to nearly 40 million people and the largest agricultural producer in the United States, is currently experiencing an extreme drought, which has persisted for several years. While drought is commonly thought of in terms of only precipitation deficits, above average temperatures co-occurring with precipitation deficits greatly exacerbate drought conditions. The 2014 calendar year in California was characterized both by extremely low precipitation and extremely high temperatures, which has significantly deepened the already extreme drought conditions leading to severe water shortages and wildfires. While many studies have shown the statistics of 2014 temperature and precipitation anomalies as outliers, none have demonstrated a connection with large-scale, long-term climate trends, which would provide useful relationships for predicting the future trajectory of California climate and water resources. We focus on understanding non-stationarity in the joint distribution of California temperature and precipitation anomalies in terms of large-scale, low-frequency trends in climate such as global mean temperature rise and oscillatory indices such as ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation among others. We consider temperature and precipitation data from the seven distinct climate divisions in California and employ a novel, high-fidelity kernel density estimation method to directly infer the multivariate distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies conditioned on the large-scale state of the climate. We show that the joint distributions and associated statistics of temperature and precipitation are non-stationary and vary regionally in California. Further, we show that recurrence intervals of extreme concurrent events vary as a function of time and of teleconnections. This research has implications for predicting and forecasting future temperature and precipitation anomalies, which is critically important for city, water, and agricultural planning in California.

Towards a General Theory of Extremes for Observables of Chaotic Dynamical Systems.

PubMed

Lucarini, Valerio; Faranda, Davide; Wouters, Jeroen; Kuna, Tobias

2014-01-01

In this paper we provide a connection between the geometrical properties of the attractor of a chaotic dynamical system and the distribution of extreme values. We show that the extremes of so-called physical observables are distributed according to the classical generalised Pareto distribution and derive explicit expressions for the scaling and the shape parameter. In particular, we derive that the shape parameter does not depend on the chosen observables, but only on the partial dimensions of the invariant measure on the stable, unstable, and neutral manifolds. The shape parameter is negative and is close to zero when high-dimensional systems are considered. This result agrees with what was derived recently using the generalized extreme value approach. Combining the results obtained using such physical observables and the properties of the extremes of distance observables, it is possible to derive estimates of the partial dimensions of the attractor along the stable and the unstable directions of the flow. Moreover, by writing the shape parameter in terms of moments of the extremes of the considered observable and by using linear response theory, we relate the sensitivity to perturbations of the shape parameter to the sensitivity of the moments, of the partial dimensions, and of the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. Preliminary numerical investigations provide encouraging results on the applicability of the theory presented here. The results presented here do not apply for all combinations of Axiom A systems and observables, but the breakdown seems to be related to very special geometrical configurations.

Towards a General Theory of Extremes for Observables of Chaotic Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Faranda, Davide; Wouters, Jeroen; Kuna, Tobias

2014-02-01

In this paper we provide a connection between the geometrical properties of the attractor of a chaotic dynamical system and the distribution of extreme values. We show that the extremes of so-called physical observables are distributed according to the classical generalised Pareto distribution and derive explicit expressions for the scaling and the shape parameter. In particular, we derive that the shape parameter does not depend on the chosen observables, but only on the partial dimensions of the invariant measure on the stable, unstable, and neutral manifolds. The shape parameter is negative and is close to zero when high-dimensional systems are considered. This result agrees with what was derived recently using the generalized extreme value approach. Combining the results obtained using such physical observables and the properties of the extremes of distance observables, it is possible to derive estimates of the partial dimensions of the attractor along the stable and the unstable directions of the flow. Moreover, by writing the shape parameter in terms of moments of the extremes of the considered observable and by using linear response theory, we relate the sensitivity to perturbations of the shape parameter to the sensitivity of the moments, of the partial dimensions, and of the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. Preliminary numerical investigations provide encouraging results on the applicability of the theory presented here. The results presented here do not apply for all combinations of Axiom A systems and observables, but the breakdown seems to be related to very special geometrical configurations.

Exploring methods the for selection and integration of stakeholder views in the development of core outcome sets: a case study in reconstructive breast surgery.

PubMed

Potter, Shelley; Brookes, Sara T; Holcombe, Christopher; Ward, Joseph A; Blazeby, Jane M

2016-09-23

The development and use of core outcome sets (COSs) in trials may improve data synthesis and reduce outcome reporting bias. The selection of outcomes in COSs is informed by views of key stakeholders, yet little is known about the role and influence of different stakeholders' views during COS development. We report an exploratory case study examining how stakeholder selection and incorporation of stakeholders' views may influence the selection of outcomes for a COS in reconstructive breast surgery (RBS). We also make recommendations for future considerations. Key stakeholder groups and subgroups were identified from the literature and expert opinion by the COS management group. They included health care professionals, subdivided by profession (breast and plastic surgeons, specialist nurses and psychologists) and patients, subdivided according to type of surgery received, timing of reconstruction, time since surgery and patient age. All participated in a survey in which they were asked to prioritise outcomes. Outcomes were prioritised using a 9-point scale from 1 (not important) to 9 (extremely important). The proportion of (1) all participants, ignoring stakeholder group (single heterogeneous panel analysis), (2) 'professional' and 'patient' groups separately (two heterogeneous panels), ignoring prespecified subgroups and (3) each participant subgroup separately (multiple homogeneous panel analysis) rating each item 'extremely important' was summarised and compared to explore how selection and integration of stakeholder views may influence outcome prioritisation. There were many overlaps between items rated as most important by all groups. Specific stakeholders, however, prioritised specific concerns and a broader range of outcomes were prioritised when the subgroups were considered separately. For example, two additional outcomes were prioritised when patient and professional groups were considered separately and eight additional outcomes were identified when the views of the individual subgroups were explored. In general, patient subgroups preferentially valued additional clinical outcomes, including unplanned surgery, whereas professional subgroups prioritised additional psychosocial issues including body image. Stakeholder groups value different outcomes. Selection of groups, therefore, is important. Our recommendations for robust and transparent stakeholder selection and integration of stakeholder views may aid future COS developers in the design and conduct of their studies and improve the validity and value of future COS.

Flood Risk in the Danube basin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Wortmann, Michel; del Rocio Rivas Lopez, Maria; Liersch, Stefan; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Hardwick, Stephen; Hattermann, Fred

2017-04-01

The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a spatially differentiated perspective. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes, and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support. This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered: near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.

Added Value of Physical Performance Measures in Predicting Adverse Health-Related Events: Results from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

PubMed Central

Cesari, Matteo; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Newman, Anne B; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Harris, Tamara B; Penninx, Brenda W; Brach, Jennifer S; Tylavsky, Frances A; Satterfield, Suzanne; Bauer, Doug C; Rubin, Susan M; Visser, Marjolein; Pahor, Marco

2009-01-01

Objectives To determine how three different physical performance measures (PPM) combine for added utility in predicting adverse health events in elders. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. Participants 3,024 well-functioning older persons (mean age 73.6 years). Measurements Timed gait, repeated chair stands and balance (semi- and full-tandem, and single leg stands each held for 30 seconds) tests were administered at baseline. Usual gait speed was categorized to distinguish high and low risk participants using the previously established 1 m/sec cut-point. The same population-percentile (21.3%) was used to identify cut-points for repeated chair stands (17.05 sec) and balance (53 sec) tests. Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed to evaluate the added value of PPM in predicting mortality, hospitalization, and (severe) mobility limitation events over 6.9 years of follow-up. Results Risk estimates for developing adverse health-related events were similarly large for each of the three high risk groups considered separately. A greater number of PPM scores at the high risk level was associated with a greater risk of developing adverse health-related events. When all three PPMs were considered, having only one poor performance was sufficient to indicate a highly significant higher risk of (severe) lower extremity and mortality events. Conclusion Although gait speed is considered the most important predictor of adverse health events, these findings demonstrate that poor performance on other tests of lower extremity function are equally prognostic. This suggests that chair stand and standing balance performance may be adequate substitutes when gait speed is unavailable. PMID:19207142

Risk Management in the Original Extreme Sporting Event: The Pole Vault

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bemiller, Jim; Hardin, Robin

2010-01-01

The pole vault was considered the ultimate test of physical ability and daring before the advent of modern extreme sports such as skateboarding, snowboarding, and mountain biking. The inherent risks of the pole vault have been well documented. The National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research reported in 2007 that the catastrophic injury…

Trends in the prevalence of extreme obesity among Korean children and adolescents from 2001 to 2014.

PubMed

Nam, Hyo-Kyoung; Kim, Hye Ryun; Rhie, Young-Jun; Lee, Kee-Hyoung

2017-05-01

We assessed nationwide trends in extreme obesity prevalence and its impact on metabolic syndrome in Korean youth. Data from 19,593 youth (10,271 boys) aged 2-19 were obtained from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (2001-2014). The prevalence of extreme obesity and the odds ratio of metabolic syndrome were calculated. Questionnaires on body weight perceptions and weight control behaviors were administered. The prevalence of extreme obesity increased significantly among boys (p<0.05). The odds ratios of extreme obesity on metabolic syndrome compared with obesity were 3.781 and 1.979 in boys and girls, respectively. Obese teenage girls with appropriate weight perception attempted to lose weight more frequently than obese teenage boys did. Although the prevalence of childhood obesity in Korea was similar since early 2000s, extreme obesity prevalence has increased, especially among teenage boys. Considering greater morbidity risks, preventing progression to extreme obesity is crucial.

Tropical precipitation extremes: Response to SST-induced warming in aquaplanet simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Ritthik; Bordoni, Simona; Teixeira, João.

2017-04-01

Scaling of tropical precipitation extremes in response to warming is studied in aquaplanet experiments using the global Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show how the scaling of precipitation extremes is highly sensitive to spatial and temporal averaging: while instantaneous grid point extreme precipitation scales more strongly than the percentage increase (˜7% K-1) predicted by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship, extremes for zonally and temporally averaged precipitation follow a slight sub-CC scaling, in agreement with results from Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models. The scaling depends crucially on the employed convection parameterization. This is particularly true when grid point instantaneous extremes are considered. These results highlight how understanding the response of precipitation extremes to warming requires consideration of dynamic changes in addition to the thermodynamic response. Changes in grid-scale precipitation, unlike those in convective-scale precipitation, scale linearly with the resolved flow. Hence, dynamic changes include changes in both large-scale and convective-scale motions.

[Clinical choice of a benzodiazepine].

PubMed

Villeneuve, A

1983-01-01

If the differential specific anxiolytic activity between various benzodiazepines remains controverted , the clinician nevertheless now possesses scientific data allowing him to make a more rational selection, in order to obtain a better overall efficacy, either for an anxiolytic or hypnotic action. In other respects, the concept of anxiety has evolved and given rise to distinctions that will need to be taken into account in the choice of the adequate psychotropic medication, either a benzodiazepine or another psychotropic drug. When a benzodiazepine must be prescribed, the main criteria involved in its choice need to be considered. As anxiolytic medication, besides a selective action on anxiety, the absence of cumbersome effect on psychomotor activity and vigilance, pharmacokinetics constitute an important factor that must be looked at. Although the classification of benzodiazepines according to their half-life is only an approximation, some overlapping being possible between the various groups, it proves nevertheless extremely useful with respect to the therapeutic goal considered and the various clinical parameters involved. Some other aspects must also be considered, for example the rebound phenomenon. Finally, the variability of individual responses to drug treatment must be remembered.

Exercise acts as a drug; the pharmacological benefits of exercise

PubMed Central

Vina, J; Sanchis-Gomar, F; Martinez-Bello, V; Gomez-Cabrera, MC

2012-01-01

The beneficial effects of regular exercise for the promotion of health and cure of diseases have been clearly shown. In this review, we would like to postulate the idea that exercise can be considered as a drug. Exercise causes a myriad of beneficial effects for health, including the promotion of health and lifespan, and these are reviewed in the first section of this paper. Then we deal with the dosing of exercise. As with many drugs, dosing is extremely important to get the beneficial effects of exercise. To this end, the organism adapts to exercise. We review the molecular signalling pathways involved in these adaptations because understanding them is of great importance to be able to prescribe exercise in an appropriate manner. Special attention must be paid to the psychological effects of exercise. These are so powerful that we would like to propose that exercise may be considered as a psychoactive drug. In moderate doses, it causes very pronounced relaxing effects on the majority of the population, but some persons may even become addicted to exercise. Finally, there may be some contraindications to exercise that arise when people are severely ill, and these are described in the final section of the review. Our general conclusion is that exercise is so effective that it should be considered as a drug, but that more attention should be paid to the dosing and to individual variations between patients. PMID:22486393

Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, William A.; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna

2008-06-01

Grandmont [J.M. Grandmont, On endogenous competitive business cycles, Econometrica 53 (1985) 995-1045] found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models is stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics in between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New-Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New-Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kendall, William L.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2012-01-01

Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a population's breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (>1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly <1 for all 13 estimable years considered. Our results suggest that experience is an important factor determining whether or not individuals attempt to breed during harsh environmental conditions and that reproductive effort may be constrained by an individual's quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

Considerations in development and implementation of elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model for high temperature applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riff, Richard

1988-01-01

The prediction of inelastic behavior of metallic materials at elevated temperatures has increased in importance in recent years. The operating conditions within the hot section of a rocket motor or a modern gas turbine engine present an extremely harsh thermomechanical environment. Large thermal transients are induced each time the engine is started or shut down. Additional thermal transients from an elevated ambient occur whenever the engine power level is adjusted to meet flight requirements. The structural elements employed in such hot sections, as well as any engine components located therein, must be capable of withstanding such extreme conditions. Failure of a component would, due to the critical nature of the hot section, lead to an immediate and catastrophic loss in power. Consequently, assuring satisfactory long term performance for such components is a major concern. Nonisothermal loading of structures often causes excursion of stress well into the inelastic range. Moreover, the influence of geometry changes on the response is also significant in most cases. Therefore, both material and geometric nonlinear effects are considered.

Dynamic model predicting overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity prevalence trends.

PubMed

Thomas, Diana M; Weedermann, Marion; Fuemmeler, Bernard F; Martin, Corby K; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V; Bredlau, Carl; Heymsfield, Steven B; Ravussin, Eric; Bouchard, Claude

2014-02-01

Obesity prevalence in the United States appears to be leveling, but the reasons behind the plateau remain unknown. Mechanistic insights can be provided from a mathematical model. The objective of this study is to model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in body mass index (BMI) classes and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau. A differential equation system was developed that predicts population-wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and nonsocial influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birthrate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9% respectively. The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

A Case of Scurvy-Uncommon Disease-Presenting as Panniculitis, Purpura, and Oligoarthritis.

PubMed

Mintsoulis, Danielle; Milman, Nataliya; Fahim, Simone

2016-11-01

Scurvy remains prevalent in certain populations, including addicts, people of low socioeconomic status, and the severely malnourished. It classically presents as follicular hyperkeratosis and perifollicular hemorrhage of the lower extremities, as well as bleeding in other areas such as the gingiva and joints. This case presentation and literature review highlights the common pathophysiological findings associated with scurvy and current methods of diagnosis and treatment. The patient described in this case presented with sudden oligoarthritis and purpura of the lower extremities. Following progression of the patient's symptoms and a low vitamin C serum concentration, the patient was treated with vitamin C supplementation and dramatically improved. This was considered to be the result of an underlying vitamin C deficiency secondary to insufficient fruit and vegetable intake due to allergies. This case highlights the importance of maintaining a high index of suspicion for scurvy in atypical presentations of purpura not better explained by another disease or in additional populations at high risk of vitamin C deficiency. Early diagnosis by either a primary care physician or dermatologist can expedite the treatment process and improve patient prognosis. © The Author(s) 2016.

Dysthymia and cyclothymia in psychiatric practice a century after Kraepelin.

PubMed

Akiskal, H S

2001-01-01

Kraepelin had a modern vision of affective illness. He hypothesized that affective recurrences arose from enduring dispositions of depressive, cyclothymic, irritable, or 'manic' types. These dispositions appeared as 'temperaments' in English translations of his work. In the extreme, such temperamental gloominess or moodiness is today officially diagnosed as 'dysthymic' or 'cyclothymic'; irritable and hyperthymic (or manic) dispositions have not received official sanction in the contemporary psychiatric nomenclature. This paper reviews recent research which supports Kraepelin's theoretical framework regarding dysthymic and cyclothymic dispositions both as clinically relevant extreme forms of temperament and as precursors of major affective episodes. Compelling lines of evidence along epidemiologic, clinical-descriptive, familial-genetic, therapeutic, and follow-up perspectives are summarized for each disposition. Much of what in contemporary psychiatry is considered to be in the realm of subthreshold affective conditions, overlaps considerably with Kraepelin's concepts of the trait affective dispositions described herein. Most importantly, although Kraepelin's observations were based primarily on hospitalized, severely ill affective patients, his broad vision still guides us today for understanding etiology and instituting public health and preventive measures in major affective episodes.

Toward Reliable and Energy Efficient Wireless Sensing for Space and Extreme Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Baek-Young; Boyd, Darren; Wilkerson, DeLisa

2017-01-01

Reliability is the critical challenge of wireless sensing in space systems operating in extreme environments. Energy efficiency is another concern for battery powered wireless sensors. Considering the physics of wireless communications, we propose an approach called Software-Defined Wireless Communications (SDC) that dynamically decide a reliable channel(s) avoiding unnecessary redundancy of channels, out of multiple distinct electromagnetic frequency bands such as radio and infrared frequencies.We validate the concept with Android and Raspberry Pi sensors and pseudo extreme experiments. SDC can be utilized in many areas beyond space applications.

The Anterior Interosseus Artery Perforator Flap: Anatomical Dissections and Clinical Study.

PubMed

Panse, Nikhil S; Joshi, Sheetal B; Sahasrabudhe, Parag B; Bahetee, B; Gurude, Pradnya; Chandanwale, Ajay

2017-05-01

Reconstruction of upper extremity deformities continues to be a challenge to the reconstructive surgeon. Various loco regional, distant and free flaps are available for reconstruction. However, each has its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Of the commonly performed local flaps, radial artery forearm flap, and the posterior interosseus artery flap stand out prominently. Recently, perforator propeller flaps have been used for resurfacing the upper extremity. The anterior interosseus artery perforator flap is an uncommonly used and described flap. This study was divided into anatomical study and clinical application in a IV level of evidence. In the anatomical study, five upper extremities were studied. Clinically, 12 patients underwent reconstruction using the anterior interosseus artery perforator flap. Flaps were performed by a single surgeon. A retrospective review of these cases from November 2008 to May 2014 is presented. The anterior interosseus artery perforator was identified in four out of five cadaver limbs. The septocutaneous perforator was in the fifth extensor compartment around 4 cm proximal to the wrist joint. Of the twelve flaps, there was complete necrosis in one flap, and partial necrosis in one flap. The patient with complete necrosis underwent skin grafting at a later date. The wound healed secondarily in case of partial flap necrosis. Anterior interosseus artery perforator flap must be considered as an important reconstructive option in the armamentarium of the plastic surgeon, while managing hand and wrist defects.

Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study.

PubMed

Escarela, Gabriel

2012-06-01

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

Extreme Warming Challenges Sentinel Status of Kelp Forests as Indicators of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Rassweiler, A.; Bell, T. W.; Harrer, S.

2016-12-01

The ecological effects of global warming are expected to be large, but are proving difficult and costly to measure. This has led to a growing interest in using sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems, raising awareness of the importance of verifying that such conservation shortcuts have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and considered sensitive to warming. Here we show that giant kelp did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite its expected vulnerability. Fluctuations in the biomass of giant kelp, understory algae, invertebrates and fish remained within historical ranges despite 34 months of above average temperatures and below average nutrients. Sea stars and sea urchins were exceptions, plummeting due to disease outbreaks linked to the warming. Our results challenge the IPCC predictions about the vulnerability of kelp-dominated systems to extreme warming events and question their use as early indicators of climate change. The resilience of giant kelp to unprecedented warming not only questions our understanding of kelp ecology, but exposes the risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

Modeling extreme PM10 concentration in Malaysia using generalized extreme value distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Mansor, Nadiah; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

2015-05-01

Extreme PM10 concentration from the Air Pollutant Index (API) at thirteen monitoring stations in Malaysia is modeled using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The data is blocked into monthly selection period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model so two models are considered for the stations with trend. The likelihood ratio test is used to determine the best fitted model and the result shows that only two stations favor the non-stationary model (Model 2) while the other eleven stations favor stationary model (Model 1). The return level of PM10 concentration that is expected to exceed the maximum once within a selected period is obtained.

Analysis of mechanical system of extreme rainfall events using backward tracking on information from the atmosphere circulation pattern for the 2000-2015 precipitation record in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

So, B. J.; Kwon, H. H.

2016-12-01

A natural disaster for flood and drought have occurred in different parts of the world, and the disasters caused by significant extreme hydrological event in past years. Several studies examining stochastic analysis based nonstationary analysis reported for forecasting and outlook for extreme hydrological events, but there is the procedure to select predictor variables. In this study, we analyzed mechanical system of extreme rainfall events using backward tracking to determine the predictors of nonstationary considering the atmosphere circulation pattern. First, observed rainfall data of KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and ECMWF ERA-Interm data were constructed during the 2000-2015 period. Then, the 7day backward tracking were performed to establish the path of air mass using the LAGRANTO Tool considering the observed rainfall stations located in S. Korea as a starting point, The tracking information for rainfall event were clustered and then, we extracts the main influence factor based on the categorized tracking path considering to information of rainfall magnitude (e.g,, mega-sized, medium-sized). Finally, the nonstationary predictors are determined through a combination of factors affecting the nonstationary rainfall simulation techniques. The predictors based on a mechanical structure is expected to be able to respond to external factors such as climate change. In addition, this method can be used to determine the prediction factor in different geographical areas by different position.

Blocking transmission of vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Schorderet-Weber, Sandra; Noack, Sandra; Selzer, Paul M; Kaminsky, Ronald

2017-04-01

Vector-borne diseases are responsible for significant health problems in humans, as well as in companion and farm animals. Killing the vectors with ectoparasitic drugs before they have the opportunity to pass on their pathogens could be the ideal way to prevent vector borne diseases. Blocking of transmission might work when transmission is delayed during blood meal, as often happens in ticks. The recently described systemic isoxazolines have been shown to successfully prevent disease transmission under conditions of delayed pathogen transfer. However, if the pathogen is transmitted immediately at bite as it is the case with most insects, blocking transmission becomes only possible if ectoparasiticides prevent the vector from landing on or, at least, from biting the host. Chemical entities exhibiting repellent activity in addition to fast killing, like pyrethroids, could prevent pathogen transmission even in cases of immediate transfer. Successful blocking depends on effective action in the context of the extremely diverse life-cycles of vectors and vector-borne pathogens of medical and veterinary importance which are summarized in this review. This complexity leads to important parameters to consider for ectoparasiticide research and when considering the ideal drug profile for preventing disease transmission. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Pediatric Major Head Injury: Not a Minor Problem.

PubMed

Leetch, Aaron N; Wilson, Bryan

2018-05-01

Traumatic brain injury is a highly prevalent and devastating cause of morbidity and mortality in children. A rapid, stepwise approach to the traumatized child should proceed, addressing life-threatening problems first. Management focuses on preventing secondary injury from physiologic extremes such as hypoxemia, hypotension, prolonged hyperventilation, temperature extremes, and rapid changes in cerebral blood flow. Initial Glasgow Coma Score, hyperglycemia, and imaging are often prognostic of outcome. Surgically amenable lesions should be evacuated promptly. Reduction of intracranial pressure through hyperosmolar therapy, decompressive craniotomy, and seizure prophylaxis may be considered after stabilization. Nonaccidental trauma should be considered when evaluating pediatric trauma patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased dielectric constant in the water treated by extremely low frequency electromagnetic field and its possible biological implication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xun

2011-12-01

Water is the most abundant compound on the surface of the Earth, and can be considered to be the most important molecule in living systems. Water plays a variety of cellular functions, being the solvent of most biological molecules, a substrate and product of enzymatic catalysis, an important component of macromolecules, and more. Because of importance of water in life, many physical and chemical treatments were invented to improve the quality of drinking water. Among them, the treatment with electromagnetic field is a well-known, but much debatable physical method. Although electromagnetic field has been utilized for treating water for 80 years, many reports on beneficial biological effect of electromagnetic field-treated water were either anecdotal or less convincing. To explore if there is any physical base for understanding possible biological effects of electromagnetic field-treated water, dielectric relaxation spectra of deionized water treated with an extremely low frequency electromagnetic (ELFEM) field were measured and compared with that of untreated water. It was surprisingly found that the dielectric constant of the ELFEM field-treated water was 3.7% higher than the control over the frequency range of 1-10 GHz, which indicates a higher molecular polarization occurs in the ELFEM field-treated water. Electrostatic and thermodynamic analysis shows that proteins or other biomacromolecules would have more reduced free energy when they are hydrated in high dielectric constant water. Since free energy is of crucial importance for stability of proteins, protein folding and its conformational change, as well as catalytic activity of enzymes, the free energy reduction of the biomacromolecules hydrated with higher dielectric constant water may be responsible for many possible biological effects of electromagnetic field treated water.

Embodied Cognition and Empathy in Miguel De Cervantes's "El Celoso Extremeño"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carrera, Elena

2014-01-01

This article examines the portrayal of cognitive experience in the published version of Miguel de Cervantes's short story "El celoso extremeño" (1613), drawing both on recent studies of empathy and current debates about the inseparability of cognition and emotion. It considers how cognitive experience is marked by particular bodily…

Statistic analysis of annual total ozone extremes for the period 1964-1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krzyscin, Janusz W.

1994-01-01

Annual extremes of total column amount of ozone (in the period 1964-1988) from a network of 29 Dobson stations have been examined using the extreme value analysis. The extremes have been calculated as the highest deviation of daily mean total ozone from its long-term monthly mean, normalized by the monthly standard deviations. The extremes have been selected from the direct-Sun total ozone observations only. The extremes resulting from abrupt changes in ozone (day to day changes greater than 20 percent) have not been considered. The ordered extremes (maxima in ascending way, minima in descending way) have been fitted to one of three forms of the Fisher-Tippet extreme value distribution by the nonlinear least square method (Levenberg-Marguard method). We have found that the ordered extremes from a majority of Dobson stations lie close to Fisher-Tippet type III. The extreme value analysis of the composite annual extremes (combined from averages of the annual extremes selected at individual stations) has shown that the composite maxima are fitted by the Fisher-Tippet type III and the composite minima by the Fisher-Tippet type I. The difference between the Fisher-Tippet types of the composite extremes seems to be related to the ozone downward trend. Extreme value prognoses for the period 1964-2014 (derived from the data taken at: all analyzed stations, the North American, and the European stations) have revealed that the prognostic extremes are close to the largest annual extremes in the period 1964-1988 and there are only small regional differences in the prognoses.

Design and Manufacturing of Extremely Low Mass Flight Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Michael R.

2002-01-01

Extremely small flight systems pose some unusual design and manufacturing challenges. The small size of the components that make up the system generally must be built with extremely tight tolerances to maintain the functionality of the assembled item. Additionally, the total mass of the system is extremely sensitive to what would be considered small perturbations in a larger flight system. The MUSES C mission, designed, built, and operated by Japan, has a small rover provided by NASA that falls into this small flight system category. This NASA-provided rover is used as a case study of an extremely small flight system design. The issues that were encountered with the rover portion of the MUSES C program are discussed and conclusions about the recommended mass margins at different stages of a small flight system project are presented.

Vaccination Strategies: a comparative study in an epidemic scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prates, D. B.; Jardim, C. L. T. F.; Ferreira, L. A. F.; da Silva, J. M.; Kritz, M. V.

2016-08-01

Epidemics are an extremely important matter of study within the Mathematical Modeling area and can be widely found in the literature. Some epidemiological models use differential equations, which are very sensible to parameters, to represent and describe the diseases mathematically. For this work, a variation of the SIR model is discussed and applied to a certain epidemic scenario, wherein vaccination is introduced through two different strategies: constant vaccination and vaccination in pulses. Other epidemiological and population aspects are also considered, such as mortality/natality and infection rates. The analysis and results are performed through numerical solutions of the model and a special attention is given to the discussion generated by the paramenters variation.

Volatility of ten priority pollutants from fortified avian toxicity test diets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCrady, J.K.; Johnson, D.E.; Turner, L.W.

1985-01-01

With a few important exceptions, most pesticides have low volatility. However, a significant number of the industrial chemicals under the jurisdiction of TSCA have sufficient volatility to affect availability in fortified test diets and consequently the test results. Although extremely volatile chemicals might evaportate from test diets, there is insufficient data to indicate what levels of volatility are of concern. Volatility may be only one of a variety of factors influencing the fate of organic chemicals in test diets. Other mechanisms such as hydrolysis, adsorption, and photolysis should also be considered, but for many chemicals having significant vapor pressures, volatilitymore » is likely to be the major source of loss.« less

The potential of tidal barrages and lagoons to manage future coastal flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prime, Thomas; Wolf, Judith; Lyddon, Charlotte; Plater, Andrew; Brown, Jennifer

2017-04-01

In the face of a changing climate, adaptation and mitigation measures are important for coastal communities that seek to maintain their resilience to extreme events. Measures that can be classed as being both adaptation and mitigation can doubly contribute to this. Tide barrages and lagoons have the capacity to generate electricity from the rise and fall of the tide, which over the assets lifetime would contribute significantly towards emission reduction targets and towards a low carbon economy. In addition to electricity generation, the barrage or lagoon can also act as a flood defence during extreme events. This means that coastal communities protected by the barrage will have adaptation benefits to the increasing frequency of storm surges that are a result of sea-level rise. Finally, the barrage also has the potential to act as a transport link with vehicles able to cross, reducing travel times and emissions. The research project RISES-AM focuses on the implications of the higher end climate scenarios, particularly those with a global average warming that is greater than 2 ⁰C with respect to pre-industrial temperatures. RISES-AM aims to produce a better quantification of the impacts and vulnerabilities associated with these high end climate scenarios, and show that adaptation to them is possible at an affordable cost when compared to the increase in risk resulting from them. We investigated the physical and economic impact of extreme flood events of on the Mersey Estuary and surrounding areas. It is thought the Mersey Estuary is likely to be more sensitive to changes in forcing factors in the future than in the past where industrial impacts where the main drivers of change. Extreme events were simulated, for the present day and in 2100 where high impact emission scenarios have resulted in SLR ranging from 0.71 m to 1.80 m depending on the higher end emission scenario selected. If built, the barrage in the Estuary or lagoon in surrounding areas such as the Wirral peninsula will still be present in 2100. It is therefore important to consider long time horizons and the associated climate change. Both business as usual i.e. no adaptation measures and the presence of a tidal barrage or lagoon at two locations were simulated. Three different representative concentration pathways were used to derive an increase of mean sea-level by 2100. To accurately assess the economic impact, a number of different extreme events with varying annual probabilities of occurrence were simulated, these range from 1 in 1 year to 1 in 1000 years probability of exceedance. The flood inundation model LISFLOOD-FP was used to simulate these extreme events and the economic impact resulting from any inundation in the flood plain was calculated and compared alongside the cost and revenue from projected electricity generation to see if the flood protection benefits would contribute positively to a cost benefit analysis, assessing the building of the barrage. This preliminary study shows that tidal lagoons and barrages do have the potential to offer flood risk benefit and become part of integrated strategies to minimise flood risk in coastal areas, but this is site specific and detailed modelling studies are required. The benefits of these structures are dependent on their shape, size and location, and feasibility studies should consider impacts in the near and far-field.

Nanomaterial-based electrochemical sensors for arsenic - A review.

PubMed

Kempahanumakkagari, Sureshkumar; Deep, Akash; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Kumar Kailasa, Suresh; Yoon, Hye-On

2017-09-15

The existence of arsenic in the environment poses severe global health threats. Considering its toxicity, the sensing of arsenic is extremely important. Due to the complexity of environmental and biological samples, many of the available detection methods for arsenic have serious limitations on selectivity and sensitivity. To improve sensitivity and selectivity and to circumvent interferences, different electrode systems have been developed based on surface modification with nanomaterials including carbonaceous nanomaterials, metallic nanoparticles (MNPs), metal nanotubes (MNTs), and even enzymes. Despite the progress made in electrochemical sensing of arsenic, some issues still need to be addressed to realize cost effective, portable, and flow-injection type sensor systems. The present review provides an in-depth evaluation of the nanoparticle-modified electrode (NME) based methods for the electrochemical sensing of arsenic. NME based sensing systems are projected to become an important option for monitoring hazardous pollutants in both environmental and biological media. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In Vivo Pattern Classification of Ingestive Behavior in Ruminants Using FBG Sensors and Machine Learning.

PubMed

Pegorini, Vinicius; Karam, Leandro Zen; Pitta, Christiano Santos Rocha; Cardoso, Rafael; da Silva, Jean Carlos Cardozo; Kalinowski, Hypolito José; Ribeiro, Richardson; Bertotti, Fábio Luiz; Assmann, Tangriani Simioni

2015-11-11

Pattern classification of ingestive behavior in grazing animals has extreme importance in studies related to animal nutrition, growth and health. In this paper, a system to classify chewing patterns of ruminants in in vivo experiments is developed. The proposal is based on data collected by optical fiber Bragg grating sensors (FBG) that are processed by machine learning techniques. The FBG sensors measure the biomechanical strain during jaw movements, and a decision tree is responsible for the classification of the associated chewing pattern. In this study, patterns associated with food intake of dietary supplement, hay and ryegrass were considered. Additionally, two other important events for ingestive behavior were monitored: rumination and idleness. Experimental results show that the proposed approach for pattern classification is capable of differentiating the five patterns involved in the chewing process with an overall accuracy of 94%.

In Vivo Pattern Classification of Ingestive Behavior in Ruminants Using FBG Sensors and Machine Learning

PubMed Central

Pegorini, Vinicius; Karam, Leandro Zen; Pitta, Christiano Santos Rocha; Cardoso, Rafael; da Silva, Jean Carlos Cardozo; Kalinowski, Hypolito José; Ribeiro, Richardson; Bertotti, Fábio Luiz; Assmann, Tangriani Simioni

2015-01-01

Pattern classification of ingestive behavior in grazing animals has extreme importance in studies related to animal nutrition, growth and health. In this paper, a system to classify chewing patterns of ruminants in in vivo experiments is developed. The proposal is based on data collected by optical fiber Bragg grating sensors (FBG) that are processed by machine learning techniques. The FBG sensors measure the biomechanical strain during jaw movements, and a decision tree is responsible for the classification of the associated chewing pattern. In this study, patterns associated with food intake of dietary supplement, hay and ryegrass were considered. Additionally, two other important events for ingestive behavior were monitored: rumination and idleness. Experimental results show that the proposed approach for pattern classification is capable of differentiating the five patterns involved in the chewing process with an overall accuracy of 94%. PMID:26569250

Durable superhydrophobic and superamphiphobic polymeric surfaces and their applications: A review.

PubMed

Ellinas, Kosmas; Tserepi, Angeliki; Gogolides, Evangelos

2017-12-01

Wetting control is essential for many applications, such as self-cleaning, anti-icing, anti-fogging, antibacterial action as well as anti-reflection and friction control. While significant effort has been devoted to fabricate superhydrophobic/superamphiphobic surfaces (repellent to water and other low surface tension liquids), very few polymeric superhydrophobic/superamphiphobic surfaces can be considered as durable against various externally imposed stresses (e.g. application of heating, pressure, mechanical forces, chemical, etc.). Therefore, durability tests are extremely important for applications especially when such surfaces are made of "soft" materials. Here, we review the most recent and promising efforts reported towards the realization of durable, superhydrophobic/superamphiphobic, polymeric surfaces emphasizing the durability tests performed, and some important applications. We compare and put in context the scattered durability tests reported in the literature, and present conclusions, perspectives and challenges in the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alemany, A.; Lielausis, O.; Chopart, J.-P.

2003-09-01

PAMIR 2002 was organized in Ramatuelle, France, on September 16-20, 2002. The conference was attended by scientists working in various fields of magnetohydrodynamics and in this view has played an important role in the exchanges of ideas, promoting new scientific collaborations. The conference has managed about 160 oral and poster presentations regrouped in the form of specific topics. The audience of the conference has extended compared with PAMIR 2000 by considering that about 190 scientists, representing 22 countries, attended the Ramatuelle site. All scientific aspects of the liquid MHD were represented including: 1. Fundamental MHD enclosed all aspects of the MHD flows under various conditions of the magnetic Reynolds number. Problems involving steady, alternating or travelling magnetic field as well as the stability problems were considered. The specific problem of strong magnetic fields was also considered in this session. 2. Mettalurgical application of MHD. The communications have analyzed the possibilities offered by the magnetic fields in metallurgy to increase the quality of the product. The problems of interface stabilities, which control various industrial applications, have been also considered in this session as well as the transport of liquid metals by electromagnetic pumps. Some applications in electromagnetic filtration have been also reported. 3. Magnetoelectrolysis (poorly conducting fluids). The possibility to control the mass transfer phenomena in electrochemical systems by using the action of a magnetic field is one of the most promising and new applications of electromagnetism in Europe. The field of magnetoelectrolysis is extremely wide and provides, only for electrodeposition, the possibility to improve the quality, the structure, and to control the homogeneity and the rate of the deposit. Some particular applications for electrodeposition of magnetic materials have been also presented. 4. Magnetic fluids. This topic was announced for the second time in the conference program after its first presentation at PAMIR 2000. All aspects of the topic were presented, including applications for microelectronics and new possibilities in power engineering regarding the thermodynamic machine to produce electricity. 5. Cristal growth. The magnetic fields are used here to stabilize the interfaces between the crystal and the solution allowing to improve the quality of the crystals as well as to grow large-size single crystals. Various configurations with various types of magnetic fields (DC, AC or travelling, etc.) were reported. 6. Dynamo effect. The last day of the conference was devoted to the dynamo effect. This was a very important session, characterizing a very high level of activity in the European countries, especially in the domain of experiment. All the existing experiments in this field, using sodium as a liquid metal, with extremely important results for some of them considering the self-generation of magnetic fields, were examined. The next generation of dynamo experiments was also discussed, involving the papers devoted to the theoretical approach including turbulence. The conference was combined with the management committee of COST (COST P6 Magnetodynamics of Liquids) and with a meeting of the COST P6 working groups. They were devoted to metallurgical applications of MHD (person-in-charge - Prof. B. Nacke from Hannover, Germany), poorly conducting fluid (person-in-charge - Dr. G. Gerbeth from Dresden, Germany) and fundamental MHD (person-in-charge - Dr. J. Leorat from Paris, France). Additionally, a special meeting dedicated the Ampere program was organized to consider the second generation of dynamo experiments in Riga (Latvia), capable to reproduce the main mechanisms of the earth dynamo (reversion of polarity, for example). In this experiment, the Coriolis and Laplace forces will be combined. The proposed facility consists of a spherical container of 2 m in diameter, filled with liquid sodium and mounted on a rotating table. Therefore, Riga has a vocation to become a European center for the MHD studies at high magnetic Reynolds numbers. This project is a part of the construction of a scientific and technologic park in Riga, with the Ampere program being presented as an incubator of the project. A consensus about the program from different European partners interested in experimental dynamo has been achieved. The audience at the conference is extremely important, and new countries have participated for the first time, for example, China and some countries from North Africa. Magnetohydrodynamics moves forward in Europe. The vitality of MHD has been demonstrated from the diversity of the topics reported at PAMIR 2002. A new PAMIR conference will be organized in 2005.

Probe design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cowan, W.

1974-01-01

Outer planetary probe designs consider mission characteristics, structural configuration, delivery mode, scientific payload, environmental extremes, mass properties, and the launch vehicle and spacecraft interface.

A risk-based multi-objective model for optimal placement of sensors in water distribution system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naserizade, Sareh S.; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Montaseri, Hossein

2018-02-01

In this study, a new stochastic model based on Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and multi-objective optimization methods is developed for optimal placement of sensors in water distribution system (WDS). This model determines minimization of risk which is caused by simultaneous multi-point contamination injection in WDS using CVaR approach. The CVaR considers uncertainties of contamination injection in the form of probability distribution function and calculates low-probability extreme events. In this approach, extreme losses occur at tail of the losses distribution function. Four-objective optimization model based on NSGA-II algorithm is developed to minimize losses of contamination injection (through CVaR of affected population and detection time) and also minimize the two other main criteria of optimal placement of sensors including probability of undetected events and cost. Finally, to determine the best solution, Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), as a subgroup of Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach, is utilized to rank the alternatives on the trade-off curve among objective functions. Also, sensitivity analysis is done to investigate the importance of each criterion on PROMETHEE results considering three relative weighting scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is examined through applying it to Lamerd WDS in the southwestern part of Iran. The PROMETHEE suggests 6 sensors with suitable distribution that approximately cover all regions of WDS. Optimal values related to CVaR of affected population and detection time as well as probability of undetected events for the best optimal solution are equal to 17,055 persons, 31 mins and 0.045%, respectively. The obtained results of the proposed methodology in Lamerd WDS show applicability of CVaR-based multi-objective simulation-optimization model for incorporating the main uncertainties of contamination injection in order to evaluate extreme value of losses in WDS.

Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge stations located in the North Adriatic coastal areas from 1989 to 2011. These data, together with the sea-level rise scenarios for the considered future timeframe, represent the input for the application of the Joint Probability method (Pugh and Vassie, 1979), which allows the evaluation of the maximum height of extreme storm surge events with different return period and the number of extreme events per year. The methodology uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, process, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to integrate stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the analysis in order to obtain a total risk index in the considered region. The final outputs are represented by GIS-based risk maps which allow the communication of the potential consequences of extreme storm surge to decision makers and stakeholders. Moreover, they can support the establishment of relative priorities for intervention through the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities. Finally the produced output can represent a basis for definition of storm surge hazard and storm surge risk management plans according to the Floods Directive. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the CLIMDAT project will be here presented and discussed.

Analysis of the dependence of extreme rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padoan, Simone; Ancey, Christophe; Parlange, Marc

2010-05-01

The aim of spatial analysis is to quantitatively describe the behavior of environmental phenomena such as precipitation levels, wind speed or daily temperatures. A number of generic approaches to spatial modeling have been developed[1], but these are not necessarily ideal for handling extremal aspects given their focus on mean process levels. The areal modelling of the extremes of a natural process observed at points in space is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extremal spatial rainfall is crucial in flood protection. In light of recent concerns over climate change, the use of robust mathematical and statistical methods for such analyses has grown in importance. Multivariate extreme value models and the class of maxstable processes [2] have a similar asymptotic motivation to the univariate Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution , but providing a general approach to modeling extreme processes incorporating temporal or spatial dependence. Statistical methods for max-stable processes and data analyses of practical problems are discussed by [3] and [4]. This work illustrates methods to the statistical modelling of spatial extremes and gives examples of their use by means of a real extremal data analysis of Switzerland precipitation levels. [1] Cressie, N. A. C. (1993). Statistics for Spatial Data. Wiley, New York. [2] de Haan, L and Ferreria A. (2006). Extreme Value Theory An Introduction. Springer, USA. [3] Padoan, S. A., Ribatet, M and Sisson, S. A. (2009). Likelihood-Based Inference for Max-Stable Processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory & Methods. In press. [4] Davison, A. C. and Gholamrezaee, M. (2009), Geostatistics of extremes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. To appear.

Bias correction method for climate change impact assessment at a basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyunt, C.; Jaranilla-sanchez, P. A.; Yamamoto, A.; Nemoto, T.; Kitsuregawa, M.; Koike, T.

2012-12-01

Climate change impact studies are mainly based on the general circulation models GCM and these studies play an important role to define suitable adaptation strategies for resilient environment in a basin scale management. For this purpose, this study summarized how to select appropriate GCM to decrease the certain uncertainty amount in analysis. This was applied to the Pampanga, Angat and Kaliwa rivers in Luzon Island, the main island of Philippine and these three river basins play important roles in irrigation water supply, municipal water source for Metro Manila. According to the GCM scores of both seasonal evolution of Asia summer monsoon and spatial correlation and root mean squared error of atmospheric variables over the region, finally six GCM is chosen. Next, we develop a complete, efficient and comprehensive statistical bias correction scheme covering extremes events, normal rainfall and frequency of dry period. Due to the coarse resolution and parameterization scheme of GCM, extreme rainfall underestimation, too many rain days with low intensity and poor representation of local seasonality have been known as bias of GCM. Extreme rainfall has unusual characteristics and it should be focused specifically. Estimated maximum extreme rainfall is crucial for planning and design of infrastructures in river basin. Developing countries have limited technical, financial and management resources for implementing adaptation measures and they need detailed information of drought and flood for near future. Traditionally, the analysis of extreme has been examined using annual maximum series (AMS) adjusted to a Gumbel or Lognormal distribution. The drawback is the loss of the second, third etc, largest rainfall. Another approach is partial duration series (PDS) constructed using the values above a selected threshold and permit more than one event per year. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) has been used to model PDS and it is the series of excess over a threshold. In this study, the lowest value of AMS of observed is selected as threshold and simultaneously same frequency is considered as extremes in corresponding GCM gridded series. After fitting to GP distribution, bias corrected GCM extreme is found by using the inverse function of observed extremes. The results show it can remove bias effectively. For projected climate, the same transfer function between historical observed and GCM was applied. Moreover, frequency analysis of maximum extreme intensity estimation was done for validation and then approximate for near future by using identical function as past. To fix the error in the number of no rain days of GCM, ranking order statistics is used and define in GCM same as the frequency of wet days in observed station. After this rank, GCM output will be zero and identify same threshold for future projection. Normal rainfall is classified as between threshold of extreme and no rain day. We assume monthly normal rainfall follow gamma distribution. Then, we mapped the CDF of GCM normal rainfall to station's one in each month and bias corrected rainfall is available. In summary, bias of GCM have been addressed efficiently and validated at point scale by seasonal climatology and at all stations for evaluating downscaled rainfall performance. The results show bias corrected and downscaled scheme is good enough for climate impact study.

Scenario based tsunami wave height estimation towards hazard evaluation for the Hellenic coastline and examples of extreme inundation zones in South Aegean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melis, Nikolaos S.; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Frentzos, Elias; Krassanakis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

A scenario based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment is used, by incorporating earthquake sources with the potential to produce extreme tsunamis (measured through their capacity to cause maximum wave height and inundation extent). In the present study we follow a two phase approach. In the first phase, existing earthquake hazard zoning in the greater Aegean region is used to derive representative maximum expected earthquake magnitude events, with realistic seismotectonic source characteristics, and of greatest tsunamigenic potential within each zone. By stacking the scenario produced maximum wave heights a global maximum map is constructed for the entire Hellenic coastline, corresponding to all expected extreme offshore earthquake sources. Further evaluation of the produced coastline categories based on the maximum expected wave heights emphasizes the tsunami hazard in selected coastal zones with important functions (i.e. touristic crowded zones, industrial zones, airports, power plants etc). Owing to its proximity to the Hellenic Arc, many urban centres and being a popular tourist destination, Crete Island and the South Aegean region are given a top priority to define extreme inundation zoning. In the second phase, a set of four large coastal cities (Kalamata, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno), important for tsunami hazard, due i.e. to the crowded beaches during the summer season or industrial facilities, are explored towards preparedness and resilience for tsunami hazard in Greece. To simulate tsunamis in the Aegean region (generation, propagation and runup) the MOST - ComMIT NOAA code was used. High resolution DEMs for bathymetry and topography were joined via an interface, specifically developed for the inundation maps in this study and with similar products in mind. For the examples explored in the present study, we used 5m resolution for the topography and 30m resolution for the bathymetry, respectively. Although this study can be considered as preliminary, it can also form the basis to further develop a scenario based inundation model database that can be used as an operational tool, for fast assessing tsunami prone zones during a real tsunami crisis.

Discriminant factors for adolescent sexual offending: On the usefulness of considering both victim age and sibling incest.

PubMed

Joyal, Christian C; Carpentier, Julie; Martin, Caroline

2016-04-01

Understanding the pathways and circumstances of juvenile sexual offending is of utmost importance. However, juvenile sexual offenders (JSO) represent an especially diverse group of individuals, and several categorizations have been proposed to obtain more homogeneous subgroups. Victim age-based and family relation-based categorizations are particularly promising because they seem theoretically and clinically relevant. Empirical results however are still inconsistent, and most studies have not considered these two dimensions jointly. The first goal of this study was to further examine the value of subgrouping JSO according to the age of their victim. A second goal was to determine the supplementary value, if any, of considering sibling incest. Based on a sample of 351 male JSO, it was first confirmed that sexual abuse of children was more strongly related to asociality (social skill deficits) than sexual abuse of peers, the latter being more closely associated with antisociality (general delinquency). The relevance of considering mixed-type JSO (with both child and peer victims) separately was also confirmed. More importantly, multivariate statistical analyses demonstrated that adding sibling incest to the equation was useful. JSO of intra-familial child were significantly more likely to have been victimized during their own childhood compared to JSO with extra-familial victims. Nevertheless, adolescents who had committed sibling incest obtained middle ground results on most variables (except for crime severity), suggesting that they constitute a distinct but not extreme, subgroup. This study confirmed the utility of using both the age and the family relation with the victim in characterizing juvenile sexual offending. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

2018-02-01

Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

Attitudes among students and teachers on vertical integration between clinical medicine and basic science within a problem-based undergraduate medical curriculum.

PubMed

Brynhildsen, J; Dahle, L O; Behrbohm Fallsberg, M; Rundquist, I; Hammar, M

2002-05-01

Important elements in the curriculum at the Faculty of Health Sciences in Linköping are vertical integration, i.e. integration between the clinical and basic science sections of the curriculum, and horizontal integration between different subject areas. Integration throughout the whole curriculum is time-consuming for both teachers and students and hard work is required for planning, organization and execution. The aim was to assess the importance of vertical and horizontal integration in an undergraduate medical curriculum, according to opinions among students and teachers. In a questionnaire 102 faculty teachers and 106 students were asked about the importance of 14 different components of the undergraduate medical curriculum including vertical and horizontal integration. They were asked to assign between one and six points to each component (6 points = extremely important for the quality of the curriculum; 1 point = unimportant). Students as well as teachers appreciated highly both forms of integration. Students scored horizontal integration slightly but significantly higher than the teachers (median 6 vs 5 points; p=0.009, Mann-Whitney U-test), whereas teachers scored vertical integration higher than students (6 vs 5; p=0.019, Mann-Whitney U-test). Both students and teachers considered horizontal and vertical integration to be highly important components of the undergraduate medical programme. We believe both kinds of integration support problem-based learning and stimulate deep and lifelong learning and suggest that integration should always be considered deeply when a new curriculum is planned for undergraduate medical education.

Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events.

Integrating new indicators of predictors that shape the public's perception of local extreme temperature in China.

PubMed

Ban, Jie; Huang, Lei; Chen, Chen; Guo, Yuming; He, Mike Z; Li, Tiantian

2017-02-01

The public's risk perception of local extreme heat or cold plays a critical role in community health and prevention under climate change. However, there is limited evidence on such issues in China where extreme weather is occurring more frequently due to climate change. Here, a total of 2500 residents were selected using a three-step sampling method and investigated by a questionnaire in two representative cities. We investigated risk perception of extreme heat in Beijing and extreme cold in Harbin in 2013, aiming to examine their possible correlations with multiple epidemiological factors. We found that exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive ability were significant predictors in shaping public risk perceptions of local extreme temperature. In particular, a 1°C increase in daily temperature resulted in an increased odds of perceiving serious extreme heat in Beijing (OR=1.091; 95% CI: 1.032, 1.153), while a 1°C increase in daily temperature resulted in a decreased odds of perceiving serious extreme cold in Harbin (OR=0.965; 95% CI: 0.939, 0.992). Therefore for both extreme heat and cold, frequent local extreme temperature exposure may amplify a stronger communication. Health interventions for extreme temperature should consider exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive ability factors. This will help improve the public's perception of climatic changes and their willingness to balance adaption and mitigation appropriately. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses of Climatic Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Willner, S. N.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

2015-12-01

Risk of extreme weather events like storms, heat extremes, and floods has already risen due to anthropogenic climate change and is likely to increase further under future global warming. Additionally, the structure of the global economy has changed importantly in the last decades. In the process of globalization, local economies have become more and more interwoven forming a complex network. Together with a trend towards lean production, this has resulted in a strong dependency of local manufacturers on global supply and value added chains, which may render the economic network more vulnerable to climatic extremes; outages of local manufacturers trigger indirect losses, which spread along supply chains and can even outstrip direct losses. Accordingly, in a comprehensive climate risk assessment these inter-linkages should be considered. Here, we present acclimate, an agent based dynamic damage propagation model. Its agents are production and consumption sites, which are interlinked by economic flows accounting for the complexity as well as the heterogeneity of the global supply network. Assessing the economic response on the timescale of the adverse event, the model permits to study temporal and spatial evolution of indirect production losses during the disaster and in the subsequent recovery phase of the economy. In this study, we focus on the dynamic economic resilience defined here as the ratio of direct to total losses. This implies that the resilience of the system under consideration is low if the high indirect losses are high. We find and assess a nonlinear dependence of the resilience on the disaster size. Further, we analyze the influence of the network structure upon resilience and discuss the potential of warehousing as an adaptation option.

Discovery of an Extremely Luminous Dust-obscured Galaxy Observed with SDSS, WISE, JCMT, and SMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toba, Yoshiki; Ueda, Junko; Lim, Chen-Fatt; Wang, Wei-Hao; Nagao, Tohru; Chang, Yu-Yen; Saito, Toshiki; Kawabe, Ryohei

2018-04-01

We present the discovery of an extremely luminous dust-obscured galaxy (DOG) at z spec = 3.703, WISE J101326.25+611220.1. This DOG is selected as a candidate of extremely luminous infrared (IR) galaxies based on the photometry from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. In order to derive its accurate IR luminosity, we perform follow-up observations at 450 and 850 μm using the Submillimetre Common User Bolometer Array 2 on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope, and at 870 and 1300 μm using the Submillimeter Array, which enable us to pin down its IR Spectral Energy Distribution (SED). We perform SED fitting using 14 photometric data (0.4–1300 μm) and estimate its IR luminosity, L IR (8–1000 μm), to be {2.2}-1.0+1.5 ×1014 L ⊙, making it one of the most luminous IR galaxies in the universe. The energy contribution from an active galactic nucleus (AGN) to the IR luminosity is {94}-20+6%, which indicates that it is an AGN-dominated DOG. On the other hand, its stellar mass (M *) and star formation rate (SFR) are {log}({M}* /{M}ȯ ) = {11.2}-0.2+0.6 and {log}({SFR}/{M}ȯ {yr}}-1) = {3.1}-0.1+0.2, respectively, which means that this DOG can be considered a starburst galaxy in the M *–SFR plane. This extremely luminous DOG shows significant AGN and star-forming activity that provides us with an important laboratory to probe the maximum phase of the coevolution of galaxies and supermassive black holes.

Application of RFID technology-upper extremity rehabilitation training.

PubMed

Chen, Chih-Chen; Chen, Yu-Luen; Chen, Shih-Ching

2016-01-01

[Purpose] Upper extremity rehabilitation after an injury is very important. This study proposes radio frequency identification (RFID) technology to improve and enhance the effectiveness of the upper extremity rehabilitation. [Subjects and Methods] People use their upper extremities to conduct daily activities. When recovering from injuries, many patients neglect the importance of rehabilitation, which results in degraded function. This study recorded the training process using the traditional rehabilitation hand gliding cart with a RFID reader, RFID tags in the panel, and a servo host computer. [Results] Clinical evidence, time taken to achieve a full score, counts of missing the specified spots, and Brunnstrom stage of aided recovery, the proximal part of the upper extremity show that the RFID-based upper extremity training significantly and reduce negative impacts of the disability in daily life and activities. [Conclusion] This study combined a hand-gliding cart with an RFID reader, and when patients moved the cart, the movement could be observed via the activated RFID tags. The training data was collected and quantified for a better understanding of the recovery status of the patients. Each of the participating patients made progress as expected.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Contributions of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Scaling in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal

2018-03-01

Despite the importance of subdaily precipitation extremes for urban areas, the role of dynamic and thermodynamic scaling in changes in precipitation extremes in India remains poorly constrained. Here we estimate contributions from thermodynamic and dynamic scaling on changes in subdaily precipitation extremes for 23 urban locations in India. Subdaily precipitation extremes have become more intense during the last few decades. Moreover, we find a twofold rise in the frequency of subdaily precipitation extremes during 1979-2015, which is faster than the increase in daily precipitation extremes. The contribution of dynamic scaling in this rise in the frequency and intensity of subdaily precipitation extremes is higher than the thermodynamic scaling. Moreover, half-hourly precipitation extremes show higher contributions from the both thermodynamic ( 10%/K) and dynamic ( 15%/K) scaling than daily (6%/K and 9%/K, respectively) extremes indicating the role of warming on the rise in the subdaily precipitation extremes in India. Our findings have implications for better understanding the dynamic response of precipitation extremes under the warming climate over India.

Force-Free Magnetic Fields on AN Extreme Reissner-Nordström Spacetime and the Meissner Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takamori, Yousuke; Ken-Ichi, Nakao; Hideki, Ishihara; Masashi, Kimura; Chul-Moon, Yoo

It is known that the Meissner effect of black holes is seen in the vacuum solutions of blackhole magnetosphere: no non-monopole component of magnetic flux penetrates the event horizon if the black hole is extreme. In this article, in order to see the effects of charge currents, we study the force-free magnetic field on the extreme Reissner-Nordström background. In this case, we should solve one elliptic differential equation called the Grad-Shafranov equation which has singular points called light surfaces. In order to see the Meissner effect, we consider the region near the event horizon and try to solve the equation by Taylor expansion about the event horizon. Moreover, we assume that the small rotational velocity of the magnetic field, and then, we construct a perturbative method to solve the Grad-Shafranov equation considering the efftect of the inner light surface and study the behavior of the magnetic field near the event horizon.

On the Performance of Carbon Nanotubes in Extreme Conditions and in the Presence of Microwaves

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

been considered for use as transparent conductors include: transparent conducting oxides (TCOs), intrinsically conducting polymers (ICPs), graphene ...optical transmission properties, but are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions (such as temperature and humidity). Graphene has recently...during the dicing procedure, silver paint was applied to the sample to serve as improvised contact/probe-landing points. Figure 1 shows the CNT thin

Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also individual extreme events. Since the predicted loss estimates, typically in the form of a curve plotting return period against modelled loss, are used in the pricing of reinsurance, we demonstrate the importance of the estimated return period and understanding the uncertainties associated with it.

Severe soft tissue infection of the lower extremity caused by Haemophilus influenzae (serotype f, biotype II) in an adult patient.

PubMed

Hagiya, Hideharu; Murase, Tomoko; Naito, Hiromichi; Hagioka, Shingo; Morimoto, Naoki

2012-01-01

The infection caused by non-b-type Haemophilus influenzae has been increasing in this Hib (H.influenzae serotype b) vaccination era. H.influenzae serotype f (Hif) is considered as one of those emerging pathogens. In general, H.influenzae is a common pathogen of such as pneumonia, otitis media, and meningitis, but is rare in soft tissue infection, especially at the extremity. We report a rare case of severe soft tissue infection caused by Hif which occurred at the lower extremity of immunocompetent adult patient.

The first results of the development and implementation of the upper extremity exoskeleton "EXAR"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorobiev, A. A.; Krivonozhkina, P. S.; Zasypkina, O. A.; Andrewshenko, F. A.

2015-11-01

This research considers the first results of the development and implementation of the upper extremity exoskeleton "EXAR". Made anatomical parameterization developed the device the testing of the apparatus have been conducted in accordance with the bioethics regulations with the girl I. Sh. at the age of 4 years suffering the artrogryposis. The parameters of the exoskeleton "EXAR" selected according to our methods allowed us to conduct its use in the period of 4 months. There have been no defects at all. By the analysis of the first results of the passive upper limb skeleton EXAR development we should consider them as positive and worthy of the widespread adoption in the remedial practice.

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

Development of Korean Academy of Medical Sciences Guideline for rating physical disability of upper extremity.

PubMed

Park, Jung Ho; Kim, Hee-Chun; Lee, Jae Hoon; Kim, Jin Soo; Roh, Si Young; Yi, Cheol Ho; Kang, Yoon Kyoo; Kwon, Bum Sun

2009-05-01

While the lower extremities support the weight and move the body, the upper extremities are essential for the activities of daily living, which require many detailed movements. Therefore, a disability of the upper extremity function should include a limitation of all motions of the joints and sensory loss, which affects the activities. In this study, disabilities of the upper extremities were evaluated according to the following conditions: 1) amputation, 2) joint contracture, 3) diseases of upper extremity, 4) weakness, 5) sensory loss of the finger tips, and 6) vascular and lymphatic diseases. The order of 1) to 6) is the order of major disability and there is no need to evaluate a lower order disability when a higher order one exists in the same joint or a part of the upper extremity. However, some disabilities can be either added or substituted when there are special contributions from multiple disabilities. An upper extremity disability should be evaluated after the completion of treatment and full adaptation when further functional changes are not expected. The dominance of the right or left hand before the disability should not be considered when there is a higher rate of disability.

The relationship between self-harm and teen dating violence among youth in Hawaii.

PubMed

Baker, Charlene K; Helm, Susana; Bifulco, Kristina; Chung-Do, Jane

2015-05-01

The connection between teen dating violence (TDV) and self-harm is important to consider because of the serious consequences for teens who engage in these behaviors. Self-harm includes nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicide behaviors such as suicide attempts or deaths. Although prior research shows that these two public health problems are related, the context in which they occur is missing, including what leads teens to engage in self-harm and the timing of self-harming behaviors within the relationship. To fill this gap, we conducted focus groups with 39 high-school-aged teens, all of whom had experienced prior relationship violence. Teens described incidents in which they and their partners engaged in NSSI and suicide attempts. Incidents often were associated with extreme alcohol and drug use and occurred during the break-up stage of the relationship. Prevention and intervention programs are needed that consider the intersections of TDV, substance use, and self-harm. © The Author(s) 2014.

Percutaneous biliary drainage for high obstruction.

PubMed

Barth, K H

1990-11-01

PBD is the preferred route of palliative drainage for patients with high biliary obstruction. The frequency of bifurcational obstruction in this setting requires familiarity with drainages from both the right and the left transhepatic approach. The preferred right transhepatic approach is fluoroscopically guided; on the left, ultrasonography is the guidance of choice. Large caliber drainage catheters are required, and dilatation of the necessary transhepatic tracts is extremely painful unless adequate inhalation anesthesia or, preferably, epidural anesthesia, is provided. Long-term biliary drainage requires a choice between internal-external external drainage catheters and endoprostheses that is made by considering the patient's life expectancy and his or her adjustment to a stent extending to the outside. The feasibility of corrective procedures if an internal-external drainage catheter or an endoprosthesis becomes blocked needs to be considered before definitive placement. The interventional radiologist becomes intimately involved in the follow-up care of patients and frequently has to direct appropriate patient evaluation. Familiarity with antibiotic regimens is important.

Zein nanoparticles and the strategies to improve the colloidal stability: a mini review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoli, Mônica; de Lima, Renata; Fraceto, Leonardo F.

2018-01-01

Zein, a protein extracted from maize, can be employed to easily produce nanoscale particles suitable for use as carrier systems. This review investigates the main methods for obtaining zein nanoparticles, as well as the problems and options available in the development of stable colloidal suspensions. Considerable gaps were identified in the literature concerning this topic, with studies being unclear about the factors that affect the stability of zein particles. In the vast majority of cases, no data are presented in relation to the stability of the formulations over time. It could be concluded that in order to produce a high quality system, detailed evaluation is required, considering factors including the zein concentration, pH, ionic strength, thermal treatment of the protein prior to preparation of the nanoparticles, strategies employing other materials as coatings, and the storage conditions. It is extremely important that these aspects should be considered during product development, prior to commercial-scale manufacture.

Zein Nanoparticles and Strategies to Improve Colloidal Stability: A Mini-Review

PubMed Central

Pascoli, Mônica; de Lima, Renata; Fraceto, Leonardo F.

2018-01-01

Zein, a protein extracted from maize, can be employed to easily produce nanoscale particles suitable for use as carrier systems. This review investigates the main methods for obtaining zein nanoparticles, as well as the problems and options available in the development of stable colloidal suspensions. Considerable gaps were identified in the literature concerning this topic, with studies being unclear about the factors that affect the stability of zein particles. In the vast majority of cases, no data are presented in relation to the stability of the formulations over time. It could be concluded that in order to produce a high quality system, detailed evaluation is required, considering factors including the zein concentration, pH, ionic strength, thermal treatment of the protein prior to preparation of the nanoparticles, strategies employing other materials as coatings, and the storage conditions. It is extremely important that these aspects should be considered during product development, prior to commercial-scale manufacture. PMID:29473032

Seeding materials: Health and safety considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, R. D.

1985-01-01

The choice of a proper seeding material for laser velocimeters must include health and safety considerations. Failure to do so can lead to catastrophic results. All materials are toxic, and laser velocimeter seeding materials are no exception. Toxicity may be considered an inherent property of a given material. The manifestation of that property or the physiological response to the material is dependent on dose and exposure conditions. An approximate physiological classification of toxicity is given in tablular form. Toxicity in some situations is not necessarily the most restrictive factor in selection of materials. It is also very important to consider how the material is used so that actual exposure to the material in a damaging form can result. For example, nickel and cadmium are both extremely toxic as systemic poisons and in the case of nickel as a carcinogen. Seeding materials are dispersed in air under conditions that favor personnel exposure. Dispersal equipment is frequently if not normally manned, and personnel are often required to make frequent adjustments to assure proper operations.

Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

2017-12-01

Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

Upper Extremity Amputations and Prosthetics

PubMed Central

Ovadia, Steven A.; Askari, Morad

2015-01-01

Upper extremity amputations are most frequently indicated by severe traumatic injuries. The location of the injury will determine the level of amputation. Preservation of extremity length is often a goal. The amputation site will have important implications on the functional status of the patient and options for prosthetic reconstruction. Advances in amputation techniques and prosthetic reconstructions promote improved quality of life. In this article, the authors review the principles of upper extremity amputation, including techniques, amputation sites, and prosthetic reconstructions. PMID:25685104

Are recent severe floods in Xiang River basin of China linked with the increase extreme precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Du, J.

2015-12-01

The Xiang River, a main tributary of the Yangtze River, is subjected to high floods frequently in recent twenty years. Climate change, including abrupt shifts and fluctuations in precipitation is an important factor influencing hydrological extreme conditions. In addition, human activities are widely recognized as another reasons leading to high flood risk. With the effects of climate change and human interventions on hydrological cycle, there are several questions that need to be addressed. Are floods in the Xiang River basin getting worse? Whether the extreme streamflow shows an increasing tendency? If so, is it because the extreme rainfall events have predominant effect on floods? To answer these questions, the article detected existing trends in extreme precipitation and discharge using Mann-Kendall test. Continuous wavelet transform method was employed to identify the consistency of changes in extreme precipitation and discharge. The Pearson correlation analysis was applied to investigate how much degree of variations in extreme discharge can be explained by climate change. The results indicate that slightly upward trends can be detected in both extreme rainfalls and discharge in the upper region of Xiang River basin. For the most area of middle and lower river basin, the extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, but the extreme discharge displays slightly upward trends with no significance at 90% confidence level. Wavelet transform analysis results illustrate that highly similar patterns of signal changes can be seen between extreme precipitation and discharge in upper section of the basin, while the changes in extreme precipitation for the middle and lower reaches do not always coincide with the extreme streamflow. The correlation coefficients of the wavelet transforms for the precipitation and discharge signals in most area of the basin pass the significance test. The conclusion may be drawn that floods in recent years are not getting worse in Xiang River basin. The similar signal patterns and positive correlation between extreme discharge and precipitation indicate that the variability of extreme precipitation has an important effect on extreme discharge of flood, although the intensity of human impacts in lower section of Xiang River basin has increased markedly.

Semistable extremal ground states for nonlinear evolution equations in unbounded domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Bernal, Aníbal; Vidal-López, Alejandro

2008-02-01

In this paper we show that dissipative reaction-diffusion equations in unbounded domains posses extremal semistable ground states equilibria, which bound asymptotically the global dynamics. Uniqueness of such positive ground state and their approximation by extremal equilibria in bounded domains is also studied. The results are then applied to the important case of logistic equations.

On alternative q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions: Properties and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fode; Ng, Hon Keung Tony; Shi, Yimin

2018-01-01

Tsallis statistics and Tsallis distributions have been attracting a significant amount of research work in recent years. Importantly, the Tsallis statistics, q-distributions have been applied in different disciplines. Yet, a relationship between some existing q-Weibull distributions and q-extreme value distributions that is parallel to the well-established relationship between the conventional Weibull and extreme value distributions through a logarithmic transformation has not be established. In this paper, we proposed an alternative q-Weibull distribution that leads to a q-extreme value distribution via the q-logarithm transformation. Some important properties of the proposed q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions are studied. Maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters of q-Weibull distribution and their performances are investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The methodologies and the usefulness of the proposed distributions are illustrated by fitting the 2014 traffic fatalities data from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Semi-supervised tracking of extreme weather events in global spatio-temporal climate datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. K.; Prabhat, M.; Williams, D. N.

2017-12-01

Deep neural networks have been successfully applied to solve problem to detect extreme weather events in large scale climate datasets and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous hand-crafted methods. Recent work has shown that multichannel spatiotemporal encoder-decoder CNN architecture is able to localize events in semi-supervised bounding box. Motivated by this work, we propose new learning metric based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) and Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to track extreme weather events in spatio-temporal dataset. We consider spatio-temporal object tracking problems as learning probabilistic distribution of continuous latent features of auto-encoder using stochastic variational inference. For this, we assume that our datasets are i.i.d and latent features is able to be modeled by Gaussian distribution. In proposed metric, we first train VAE to generate approximate posterior given multichannel climate input with an extreme climate event at fixed time. Then, we predict bounding box, location and class of extreme climate events using convolutional layers given input concatenating three features including embedding, sampled mean and standard deviation. Lastly, we train LSTM with concatenated input to learn timely information of dataset by recurrently feeding output back to next time-step's input of VAE. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the first semi-supervised end-to-end architecture based on VAE to track extreme weather events which can apply to massive scaled unlabeled climate datasets. Second, the information of timely movement of events is considered for bounding box prediction using LSTM which can improve accuracy of localization. To our knowledge, this technique has not been explored neither in climate community or in Machine Learning community.

Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Saleem A.; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Al-Abadi, Alaa M.

2017-12-01

The existence of long-term persistence (LTP) in hydro-climatic time series can lead to considerable change in significance of trends. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP became a disputable issue. A study has been conducted to assess the trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Iraq in recent years (1965-2015) using both ordinary Mann-Kendal (MK) test; and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can differentiate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. Trends in annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and 14 temperature-related extremes were assessed. MK test detected the significant increases in minimum and maximum temperature at all stations, where m-MK test detected at 86% and 80% of all stations, respectively. The temperature in Iraq is increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global temperature rise. The minimum temperature is increasing more (0.48-1.17 °C/decade) than maximum temperature (0.25-1.01 °C/decade). Temperature rise is higher in northern Iraq and in summer. The hot extremes particularly warm nights are increasing all over Iraq at a rate of 2.92-10.69 days/decade, respectively. On the other hand, numbers of cold days are decreasing at some stations at a rate of - 2.65 to - 8.40 days/decade. The use of m-MK test along with MK test confirms the significant increase in temperature and some of the temperature extremes in Iraq. This study suggests that trends in many temperature extremes in the region estimated in previous studies using MK test may be due to natural variability of climate, which empathizes the need for validation of the trends by considering LTP in time series.

From lepton protoplasm to the genesis of hadrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, S. M.; Kosmachev, O. S.

2016-01-01

Theory of matter under extreme conditions opens a new stage in particle physics. It is necessary here to combine Dirac's elementary particle physics with Prigogine's dynamics of nonequilibrium systems. In the article we discuss the problem of the hierarchy of complexity. What can be considered as the lowest level of the organization of extreme matter on the basis of which the self-organization of the complex form occur?

North Europe power transmission system vulnerability during extreme space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccinelli, Roberta; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2018-01-01

Space weather driven by solar activity can induce geomagnetic disturbances at the Earth's surface that can affect power transmission systems. Variations in the geomagnetic field result in geomagnetically induced currents that can enter the system through its grounding connections, saturate transformers and lead to system instability and possibly collapse. This study analyzes the impact of extreme space weather on the northern part of the European power transmission grid for different transformer designs to understand its vulnerability in case of an extreme event. The behavior of the system was analyzed in its operational mode during a severe geomagnetic storm, and mitigation measures, like line compensation, were also considered. These measures change the topology of the system, thus varying the path of geomagnetically induced currents and inducing a local imbalance in the voltage stability superimposed on the grid operational flow. Our analysis shows that the North European power transmission system is fairly robust against extreme space weather events. When considering transformers more vulnerable to geomagnetic storms, only few episodes of instability were found in correspondence with an existing voltage instability due to the underlying system load. The presence of mitigation measures limited the areas of the network in which bus voltage instabilities arise with respect to the system in which mitigation measures are absent.

Radiation environment at LEO orbits: MC simulation and experimental data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanini, Alba; Borla, Oscar; Damasso, Mario; Falzetta, Giuseppe

The evaluations of the different components of the radiation environment in spacecraft, both in LEO orbits and in deep space is of great importance because the biological effect on humans and the risk for instrumentation strongly depends on the kind of radiation (high or low LET). That is important especially in view of long term manned or unmanned space missions, (mission to Mars, solar system exploration). The study of space radiation field is extremely complex and not completely solved till today. Given the complexity of the radiation field, an accurate dose evaluation should be considered an indispensable part of any space mission. Two simulation codes (MCNPX and GEANT4) have been used to assess the secondary radiation inside FO-TON M3 satellite and ISS. The energy spectra of primary radiation at LEO orbits have been modelled by using various tools (SPENVIS, OMERE, CREME96) considering separately Van Allen protons, the GCR protons and the GCR alpha particles. This data are used as input for the two MC codes and transported inside the spacecraft. The results of two calculation meth-ods have been compared. Moreover some experimental results previously obtained on FOTON M3 satellite by using TLD, Bubble dosimeter and LIULIN detector are considered to check the performances of the two codes. Finally the same experimental device are at present collecting data on the ISS (ASI experiment BIOKIS -nDOSE) and at the end of the mission the results will be compared with the calculation.

Ethical aspects in placental perfusion studies: views of the researchers.

PubMed

Halkoaho, A; Pietilä, A-M; Vähäkangas, K

2011-07-01

Within the EU-project NewGeneris human placental perfusion has been used for predicting fetal exposure to food carcinogens. Within the work package of ethical aspects of the research, we studied opinions of the researchers (n = 23) who carried out perfusions of human placenta. Data were collected by focus group interviews (n = 12) and an open-ended questionnaire (n =19 of which 8 were also attending the group session) from scientists representing 9 different nationalities. Both types of data were analysed together thematically and with data triangulation. Studied researchers considered communication between all stakeholders extremely important. Good communication was considered a prerequisite for the recruitment of mothers to donate the placenta, as well as for the process of getting the informed consent. Voluntariness, confidentiality and societal meaning were mentioned as important by all studied researchers. Educating the hospital personnel was regarded as essential in order to provide the best possible information to the mothers. The researchers also pointed out that cultural aspects should be respected, and that in Western thinking placenta is mostly considered as waste. Some researchers suggested that current guidelines and processes for obtaining informed consent should be reviewed also from a cultural perspective. With the development of biobanks, the use of human tissues, including placenta will most probably increase in the future, and the awareness of ethical considerations both in legislation and in practice need support. Thus, continuous effort for better research ethics is essential and requires research on research ethics. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The importance of flow history in mixed shear and extensional flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Caroline; McKinley, Gareth

2015-11-01

Many complex fluid flows of experimental and academic interest exhibit mixed kinematics with regions of shear and elongation. Examples include flows through planar hyperbolic contractions in microfluidic devices and through porous media or geometric arrays. Through the introduction of a ``flow-type parameter'' α which varies between 0 in pure shear and 1 in pure elongation, the local velocity fields of all such mixed flows can be concisely characterized. It is tempting to then consider the local stress field and interpret the local state of stress in a complex fluid in terms of shearing or extensional material functions. However, the material response of such fluids exhibit a fading memory of the entire deformation history. We consider a dilute solution of Hookean dumbbells and solve the Oldroyd-B model to obtain analytic expressions for the entire stress field in any arbitrary mixed flow of constant strain rate and flow-type parameter α. We then consider a more complex flow for which the shear rate is constant but the flow-type parameter α varies periodically in time (reminiscent of flow through a periodic array or through repeated contractions and expansions). We show that the flow history and kinematic sequencing (in terms of whether the flow was initialized as shearing or extensional) is extremely important in determining the ensuing stress field and rate of dissipated energy in the flow, and can only be ignored in the limit of infinitely slow flow variations.

Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

2013-04-01

Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results indicated that when the effect of extreme events was not considered, climate change had a low or no impact on crop yield distribution in 2020 and 2040. This resulted into an expected payout close to what observed in the present period. Conversely, the simulation of the effect of extreme events highly affected the PDFs by reducing the expected yield. This highlights that insured yield in future projections may be overestimated when not considering the impact of extremes, leading to distortions in the risk management of crop insurance companies. References Moriondo M, Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M (2011) Climate ch'ange impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Clim Change 104:679-701 Sherrick BJ, Zanini FC, Schnitkey GD, Irwin SH (2004) Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86:406-419. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3 PB, UK. 160 pp

Variations of trends of indicators describing complex systems: Change of scaling precursory to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A. A.

2010-09-01

Socioeconomic and natural complex systems persistently generate extreme events also known as disasters, crises, or critical transitions. Here we analyze patterns of background activity preceding extreme events in four complex systems: economic recessions, surges in homicides in a megacity, magnetic storms, and strong earthquakes. We use as a starting point the indicators describing the system's behavior and identify changes in an indicator's trend. Those changes constitute our background events (BEs). We demonstrate a premonitory pattern common to all four systems considered: relatively large magnitude BEs become more frequent before extreme event. A premonitory change of scaling has been found in various models and observations. Here we demonstrate this change in scaling of uniformly defined BEs in four real complex systems, their enormous differences notwithstanding.

Stationarity of extreme bursts in the solar wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moloney, N. R.; Davidsen, J.

2014-05-01

Recent results have suggested that the statistics of bursts in the solar wind vary with solar cycle. Here, we show that this variation is basically absent if one considers extreme bursts. These are defined as threshold-exceeding events over the range of high thresholds for which their number decays as a power law. In particular, we find that the distribution of duration times and energies of extreme bursts in the solar wind ɛ parameter and similar observables are independent of the solar cycle and in this sense stationary, and show robust asymptotic power laws with exponents that are independent of the specific threshold. This is consistent with what has been observed for solar flares and, thus, provides evidence in favor of a link between solar flares and extreme bursts in the solar wind.

The Anterior Interosseus Artery Perforator Flap: Anatomical Dissections and Clinical Study

PubMed Central

Panse, Nikhil S; Joshi, Sheetal B; Sahasrabudhe, Parag B; Bahetee, B; Gurude, Pradnya; Chandanwale, Ajay

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Reconstruction of upper extremity deformities continues to be a challenge to the reconstructive surgeon. Various loco regional, distant and free flaps are available for reconstruction. However, each has its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Of the commonly performed local flaps, radial artery forearm flap, and the posterior interosseus artery flap stand out prominently. Recently, perforator propeller flaps have been used for resurfacing the upper extremity. The anterior interosseus artery perforator flap is an uncommonly used and described flap. METHODS This study was divided into anatomical study and clinical application in a IV level of evidence. In the anatomical study, five upper extremities were studied. Clinically, 12 patients underwent reconstruction using the anterior interosseus artery perforator flap. Flaps were performed by a single surgeon. A retrospective review of these cases from November 2008 to May 2014 is presented. RESULTS The anterior interosseus artery perforator was identified in four out of five cadaver limbs. The septocutaneous perforator was in the fifth extensor compartment around 4 cm proximal to the wrist joint. Of the twelve flaps, there was complete necrosis in one flap, and partial necrosis in one flap. The patient with complete necrosis underwent skin grafting at a later date. The wound healed secondarily in case of partial flap necrosis. CONCLUSION Anterior interosseus artery perforator flap must be considered as an important reconstructive option in the armamentarium of the plastic surgeon, while managing hand and wrist defects. PMID:28713704

Legacy effects of land-use modulate tree growth responses to climate extremes.

PubMed

Mausolf, Katharina; Härdtle, Werner; Jansen, Kirstin; Delory, Benjamin M; Hertel, Dietrich; Leuschner, Christoph; Temperton, Vicky M; von Oheimb, Goddert; Fichtner, Andreas

2018-05-10

Climate change can impact forest ecosystem processes via individual tree and community responses. While the importance of land-use legacies in modulating these processes have been increasingly recognised, evidence of former land-use mediated climate-growth relationships remain rare. We analysed how differences in former land-use (i.e. forest continuity) affect the growth response of European beech to climate extremes. Here, using dendrochronological and fine root data, we show that ancient forests (forests with a long forest continuity) and recent forests (forests afforested on former farmland) clearly differ with regard to climate-growth relationships. We found that sensitivity to climatic extremes was lower for trees growing in ancient forests, as reflected by significantly lower growth reductions during adverse climatic conditions. Fine root morphology also differed significantly between the former land-use types: on average, trees with high specific root length (SRL) and specific root area (SRA) and low root tissue density (RTD) were associated with recent forests, whereas the opposite traits were characteristic of ancient forests. Moreover, we found that trees of ancient forests hold a larger fine root system than trees of recent forests. Our results demonstrate that land-use legacy-mediated modifications in the size and morphology of the fine root system act as a mechanism in regulating drought resistance of beech, emphasising the need to consider the 'ecological memory' of forests when assessing or predicting the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to global environmental change.

Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spennemann, Pablo; Rivera, Juan Antonio; Osman, Marisol; Saulo, Celeste; Penalba, Olga

2017-04-01

The importance of forecasting extreme wet and dry conditions from weeks to months in advance relies on the need to prevent considerable socio-economic losses, mainly in regions of large populations and where agriculture is a key value for the economies, like Southern South America (SSA). Therefore, to improve the understanding of the performance and uncertainties of seasonal soil moisture and precipitation forecasts over SSA, this study aims to: 1) perform a general assessment of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) soil moisture and precipitation forecasts; and 2) evaluate the CFSv2 ability to represent an extreme drought event merging observations with forecasted Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Anomalies (SSMA) based on GLDAS-2.0 simulations. Results show that both SPI and SSMA forecast skill are regionally and seasonally dependent. In general a fast degradation of the forecasts skill is observed as the lead time increases with no significant metrics for forecast lead times longer than 2 months. Based on the assessment of the 2008-2009 extreme drought event it is evident that the CFSv2 forecasts have limitations regarding the identification of drought onset, duration, severity and demise, considering both meteorological (SPI) and agricultural (SSMA) drought conditions. These results have some implications upon the use of seasonal forecasts to assist agricultural practices in SSA, given that forecast skill is still too low to be useful for lead times longer than 2 months.

Factors conditioning the habitat of bilharziasis intermediate hosts of the family Planorbidae

PubMed Central

Abdel Malek, Emile

1958-01-01

In this article, the author examines certain physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water-bodies which make them suitable or unsuitable as habitats for planorbid snails acting as vectors of bilharziasis. The principal conditioning factors appear to be: amount of food available; extent of the growth of aquatic weeds; oxygen content of the water; amount of sunlight able to penetrate the water; strength of the current; nature of the substratum; ionic composition of the water; and presence or absence of parasites and predators. Several of these factors are interdependent. Although there are differences between the various species in their habitat requirements, their ranges of tolerance were found to overlap greatly. The optimum conditions are similar for all species, but extremes are tolerated better by some species than by others. Theoretically, extremes of certain factors should be capable of eliminating snails from a body of water; in practice such extremes rarely occur, and the absence of vectors must be attributed to the combined effect of several factors. Although certain parasites and predators exterminate vectors in the laboratory, the author considers it unlikely that they would do so in nature, as under laboratory conditions the biological balance is disturbed to the disadvantage of the snail. The data available are still too scanty for an exact assessment to be made of the importance of individual environmental factors in controlling the size of vector populations; but this review of present knowledge indicates the lines along which further investigation can be most profitably pursued. PMID:13573113

Simulations of multi-component explosives using simplified geometric arrangements of their constituents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, George; Pemberton, Steven

2017-06-01

Modeling and simulation is extremely important in the design and formulation of new explosives and explosive devices due to the high cost of experiment-based development. However, the efficacy of simulations depends on the accuracy of the equations of state (EOS) and reactive burn models used to characterize the energetic materials. We investigate the possibility of using the components of an explosive fill as discrete elements in a simulation, based on the relative amounts of the constituents. This is accomplished by assembling a mosaic, or ``checkerboard'', in which each cell comprises the relative amounts of the constituents as in the mixture; it is assumed that each constituent has a well-defined set of simulation parameters. We do not consider the underlying microstructure, and recognize there will be limitations to the usefulness of this technique. We are interested in determining whether there are applications for this technique that might prove useful. As a test of the concept, two binary explosives were considered. We considered shapes for a periodic cellular structure and compared results from the checkerboards with those of the baseline explosives; detonation rates, cylinder expansion, and gap test predictions were compared.

SCOUT: simultaneous time segmentation and community detection in dynamic networks

PubMed Central

Hulovatyy, Yuriy; Milenković, Tijana

2016-01-01

Many evolving complex real-world systems can be modeled via dynamic networks. An important problem in dynamic network research is community detection, which finds groups of topologically related nodes. Typically, this problem is approached by assuming either that each time point has a distinct community organization or that all time points share a single community organization. The reality likely lies between these two extremes. To find the compromise, we consider community detection in the context of the problem of segment detection, which identifies contiguous time periods with consistent network structure. Consequently, we formulate a combined problem of segment community detection (SCD), which simultaneously partitions the network into contiguous time segments with consistent community organization and finds this community organization for each segment. To solve SCD, we introduce SCOUT, an optimization framework that explicitly considers both segmentation quality and partition quality. SCOUT addresses limitations of existing methods that can be adapted to solve SCD, which consider only one of segmentation quality or partition quality. In a thorough evaluation, SCOUT outperforms the existing methods in terms of both accuracy and computational complexity. We apply SCOUT to biological network data to study human aging. PMID:27881879

Dissecting aneurysms of posterior communicating artery itself: anatomical, diagnostic, clinical, and therapeutical considerations.

PubMed

Kocak, Burak; Tureci, Ercan; Kizilkilic, Osman; Islak, Civan; Kocer, Naci

2013-09-01

Posterior communicating artery (PCoA) itself is an unusual location for intracranial aneurysms in that isolated dissections or dissecting aneurysms are extremely rare. In the way of correct diagnosis of dissecting aneurysms of PCoA itself, a proper understanding of (1) the anatomy of the PCoA and its perforator branches, (2) some particular diagnostic features, and (3) related clinical aspects is of significant importance. Although there are no established treatment strategies for this particular type of aneurysms, the endovascular approach might be considered as a plausible one. In this paper, our scope was to report five cases with dissecting aneurysm of the PCoA itself and to discuss this rare vascular pathology from anatomical, diagnostic, clinical, and therapeutical perspectives.

Ecology, mythology and the organismic way of thinking in limnology.

PubMed

Ghilarov, A M

1992-01-01

For laymen, the word 'ecology' has become naturally surrounded with mythological mist. The influence of mythological thinking on ecology as a science is not so evident, but it certainly exists and in some aspects it can hardly be overestimated. The idea of the organism as a model or matrix for shaping new knowledge about populations, communities and ecosystems is extremely important in the maintenance of mythological thinking in modern ecology. We may even consider the organismic ideas as a vehicle of mythology in modern ecology. to this article, the problem is illustrated with limnology - an advanced branch of ecology in which it is easier to see the connections and contradictions between the dominant approaches. Copyright © 1992. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Observing metal-poor stars with X-Shooter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caffau, E.; Bonifacio, P.; Sbordone, L.; Monaco, L.; François; , P.

The extremely metal-poor stars (EMP) hold in their atmospheres the fossil record of the chemical composition of the early phases of the Galactic evolution. The chemical analysis of such objects provides important constraints on these early phases. EMP stars are very rare objects; to dig them out large amounts of data have to be considered. With an automatic procedure, we analysed objects with colours of Turn-Off stars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to select a sample of good candidate EMP stars. During the French-Italian GTO of the spectrograph X-Shooter, we observed a sample of these candidates. We could confirm the low metallicity of our sample of stars, and we succeeded in finding a record metal-poor star.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frost, J.K.; Ball, W.C. Jr.; Levin, M.L.

Sputum cytopathologic monitoring detects squamous cell lung cancers at an extremely early stage (x-ray negative). It holds further potential for preventing disease by detecting epithelial alterations which reflect environmental hazards. The addition of sputum cytology screening to screening by chest x-ray film does not significantly reduce mortality from all types of lung cancer, but preliminary analysis of Johns Hopkins Lung Project data suggests that mortality from squamous cell carcinoma is reduced. Quantitative automated cytopathology systems and biochemical/immunological cell markers enhance understanding of these precursors and offer great promise for increasing capacity, accuracy, and usefulness in cytopathology screening of workers. Cytologicalmore » specimens collected over years of screening workers considered at risk may be important to eventually understanding development and prevention of major occupational diseases.« less

Functional network in posttranslational modifications: Glyco-Net in Glycoconjugate Data Bank.

PubMed

Miura, Nobuaki; Okada, Takuya; Murayama, Daisuke; Hirose, Kazuko; Sato, Taku; Hashimoto, Ryo; Fukushima, Nobuhiro

2015-01-01

Elucidating pathways related to posttranslational modifications (PTMs) such as glycosylation is of growing importance in post-genome science and technology. Graphical networks describing the relationships among glycan-related molecules, including genes, proteins, lipids, and various biological events, are considered extremely valuable and convenient tools for the systematic investigation of PTMs. Glyco-Net (http://bibi.sci.hokudai.ac.jp/functions/) can dynamically make network figures among various biological molecules and biological events. A certain molecule or event is expressed with a node, and the relationship between the molecule and the event is indicated by arrows in the network figures. In this chapter, we mention the features and current status of the Glyco-Net and a simple example of the search with the Glyco-Net.

New onset of idiopathic bilateral ear tics in an adult.

PubMed

Agrawal, Amit; Shrestha, Rabin

2009-04-01

Tic disorders are commonly considered to be childhood syndromes. Newly presenting tic disorders during adulthood are uncommon and mostly described in relation to an acquired brain lesion or as incidental tics, particularly in context with other neurological or psychiatric diseases. Tic disorder involving the ears is extremely uncommon with only few studies in English literature. In the present case, we describe an adult patient with new-onset idiopathic tics disorder involving both ears, causing social embarrassment. In addition, our patient had recent onset of the tics without any childhood or family history of tic disorders. The single most important component of management is an accurate diagnosis. At the same time, tics should be differentiated from other movement disorders such as chorea, stereotypy, and dystonias.

[THE ORGANIZATION OF REHABILITATION CARE OF POPULATION USING INNOVATIVE MEDICAL ORGANIZATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES AND PRINCIPLES OF PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP].

PubMed

Totskaia, E G; Sheliakina, O W; Sadovoii, M A; Netchaev, V S

2015-01-01

The article considers actual problems of actual stage of development of health care related to using innovative approaches to organization and management of rehabilitation care ofpopulation. The rehabilitation is most important direction of medical sector supporting complex of services in closed cycle of rendering medical care to population and significant social economic effects. The capacity and extreme unprofitability of rehabilitation services determine necessity of searching alternative forms of organization of this type of care and financing including mechanisms of public-private partnership. The experience is presented related to involvement of resources of non-public medical organizations for implementing public commitments on rendering qualitative rehabilitation services to population using innovative medical organizational technologies.

Hospital waste management in Brazil: a case study.

PubMed

Mattoso, V D; Schalch, V

2001-12-01

The evaluation of the current definition, classification and quantification of hospital waste being carried out by hospitals in different countries is extremely important to avoid improper waste management practices. In this work, the waste management from a 400-bed Brazilian hospital which generates about 386 kg per day of hospital waste was studied. The generation rate of just over one kg per bed per day was considered small, although more than 50% of the waste from non-isolation wards consisted of food waste. It was also interesting to note that the highest generation rate per patient per day was found in private rooms and the lowest rate in the public ones. The waste practices used in this hospital are discussed in terms of current Brazilian legislation.

Synthesis, Production, and Biotechnological Applications of Exopolysaccharides and Polyhydroxyalkanoates by Archaea

PubMed Central

Poli, Annarita; Di Donato, Paola; Abbamondi, Gennaro Roberto; Nicolaus, Barbara

2011-01-01

Extreme environments, generally characterized by atypical temperatures, pH, pressure, salinity, toxicity, and radiation levels, are inhabited by various microorganisms specifically adapted to these particular conditions, called extremophiles. Among these, the microorganisms belonging to the Archaea domain are of significant biotechnological importance as their biopolymers possess unique properties that offer insights into their biology and evolution. Particular attention has been devoted to two main types of biopolymers produced by such peculiar microorganisms, that is, the extracellular polysaccharides (EPSs), considered as a protection against desiccation and predation, and the endocellular polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) that provide an internal reserve of carbon and energy. Here, we report the composition, biosynthesis, and production of EPSs and PHAs by different archaeal species. PMID:22007151

Desirable plant root traits for protecting unstable slopes against landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes, A.; Atger, C.; Bengough, G.; Fourcaud, T.; Sidle, R. C.

2009-04-01

A trait is defined as a distinct, quantitative property of organisms, usually measured at the individual level and used comparatively across species. Plant quantitative traits are extremely important for understanding the local ecology of any site. Plant height, architecture, root depth, wood density, leaf size and leaf nitrogen concentration control ecosystem processes and define habitat for other taxa. An engineer conjecturing as to how plant traits may directly influence physical processes occurring on sloping land just needs to consider how e.g. canopy architecture and litter properties influence the partitioning of rainfall among interception loss, infiltration and runoff. Plant traits not only influence abiotic processes occurring at a site, but also the habitat for animals and invertebrates. Depending on the goal of the landslide engineer, the immediate and long-term effects of plant traits in an environment must be considered if a site is to remain viable and ecologically successful. When vegetation is considered in models of slope stability, usually the only root parameters taken into consideration are tensile strength and root area ratio. Root system spatial structure is not considered, although the length, orientation and diameter of roots are recognized as being of importance. Thick roots act like soil nails on slopes, reinforcing soil in the same way that concrete is reinforced with steel rods. The spatial position of these thick roots also has an indirect effect on soil fixation in that the location of thin and fine roots will depend on the arrangement of thick roots. Thin and fine roots act in tension during failure on slopes and if they cross the slip surface, are largely responsible for reinforcing soil on slopes. Therefore, the most important trait to consider initially is rooting depth. To stabilize a slope against a shallow landslide, roots must cross the shear surface. The number and thickness of roots in this zone will therefore largely determine slope stability. Rooting depth is species dependent when soil conditions are not limiting and the number of horizontal lateral roots borne on the vertical roots usually changes with depth. Therefore, the number and orientation of roots that the shear surface intersects will change significantly with rooting depth for the same plant, even for magnitudes of only several cm. Similarly, depending on the geometry of the root system, the angle at which a root crosses the shear surface can also have an influence on its resistance to pullout and breakage. The angle at which a root emerges from the parent root is dependent on root type, depth and species (when soil conditions are not limiting). Due to the physiology of roots, a root branch can be initiated at any point along a parent root, but not necessarily emerge fully from the parent root. These traits, along with others including size, relative growth rate, regeneration strategies, wood structure and strength will be discussed with regard to their influence on slope stability. How each of these traits is influenced by soil conditions and plantation techniques is also of extreme importance to the landslide engineer. The presence of obstacles in the soil, as well as compaction, affects root length and branching pattern. Roots of many species of woody plants on shallow soils also tend to grow along fractures deep into the underlying bedrock which allows roots to locate supplies of nutrient and water rich pockets. Rooting depths of herbaceous species in water-limited environments are highly correlated with infiltration depth, but waterlogged soils can asphyxiate tree roots, resulting in shallow root systems. The need to understand and integrate each of these traits for a species is not easy. Therefore, we suggest a hierarchy whereby traits are considered in order of importance, along with how external factors influence their expression over time.

Adjusting skewness and maximum 0.5 hour intensity in CLIGEN to improve extreme event and sub-daily intensity generation for assessing climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Both measured data and GCM/RCM projections show an general increasing trend in extreme rainfall events as temperature rises in US. Proper simulation of extreme events is particularly important for assessing climate change impacts on soil erosion and hydrology. The objective of this paper is to fin...

Identifying Population Vulnerable to Extreme Heat Events in San Jose, California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, A. L.

2016-12-01

The extreme heat days not only make cities less comfortable for living but also they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mapping studies have demonstrated spatial variability in heat vulnerability. A study conducted between 2000 and 2011 in New York City shows that deaths during heat waves was more likely to occur in black individuals, at home in census tracts which received greater public assistance. This map project intends to portray areas in San Jose California that are vulnerable to extreme heat events. The variables considered to build a vulnerability index are: land surface temperature, vegetated areas (NDVI), and people exposed to these area (population density).

Estimation of methane flux from fish ponds of southwestern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, K. H.; Hung, C. C.

2016-02-01

CH4 is one of the trace gases in the atmosphere, but it is an important greenhouse gas, with 15 times more effective than CO2 absorbing infrared radiation capability. To date, scientists generally consider that the methane production is mainly from livestock farming, such as pigs and cattle, but the source of methane emission from aquaculture ponds have been ignored. Due to overfishing in the ocean, aquaculture fishery in coastal zone has been increasing globally and the methane emission from those fish ponds has seldom been studied. To better evaluate the emission of methane from fish ponds, we measured methane concentrations in both atmosphere and fish ponds of the southwestern Taiwan from March to September in 2015. Besides an extremely high flux (829 mmol/m2/d), the fluxes of methane in different fish ponds ranged from 19 to 725 μmol/m2/d, which is lower than the global mean value of lakes (2.7 mmol/m2/d). The low methane fluxes during sampling period may be due to non-harvest season, because when the harvest season comes, the higher trophic status will appear, and there will be more organic matter supply for methanogenesis. Currently, we have no idea where the extremely high methane flux comes from. We will try to measure C-isotopes to understand the sources of highest methane fluxes. Overall, the preliminary results provide substantive evidence that methane emission from aquaculture ponds could be an important source and it needs long-term investigations.

Importance of anthropogenic climate impact, sampling error and urban development in sewer system design.

PubMed

Egger, C; Maurer, M

2015-04-15

Urban drainage design relying on observed precipitation series neglects the uncertainties associated with current and indeed future climate variability. Urban drainage design is further affected by the large stochastic variability of precipitation extremes and sampling errors arising from the short observation periods of extreme precipitation. Stochastic downscaling addresses anthropogenic climate impact by allowing relevant precipitation characteristics to be derived from local observations and an ensemble of climate models. This multi-climate model approach seeks to reflect the uncertainties in the data due to structural errors of the climate models. An ensemble of outcomes from stochastic downscaling allows for addressing the sampling uncertainty. These uncertainties are clearly reflected in the precipitation-runoff predictions of three urban drainage systems. They were mostly due to the sampling uncertainty. The contribution of climate model uncertainty was found to be of minor importance. Under the applied greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B) and within the period 2036-2065, the potential for urban flooding in our Swiss case study is slightly reduced on average compared to the reference period 1981-2010. Scenario planning was applied to consider urban development associated with future socio-economic factors affecting urban drainage. The impact of scenario uncertainty was to a large extent found to be case-specific, thus emphasizing the need for scenario planning in every individual case. The results represent a valuable basis for discussions of new drainage design standards aiming specifically to include considerations of uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Virtual Reality to Assess and Treat Lower Extremity Disorders in Post-stroke Patients.

PubMed

Luque-Moreno, C; Oliva-Pascual-Vaca, A; Kiper, P; Rodríguez-Blanco, C; Agostini, M; Turolla, A

2016-01-01

This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "Methodologies, Models and Algorithms for Patients Rehabilitation". To identify support of a virtual reality system in the kinematic assessment and physiotherapy approach to gait disorders in individuals with stroke. We adapt Virtual Reality Rehabilitation System (VRRS), software widely used in the functional recovery of the upper limb, for its use on the lower limb of hemiplegic patients. Clinical scales have been used to relate them with the kinematic assessment provided by the system. A description of the use of reinforced feedback provided by the system on the recovery of deficits in several real cases in the field of physiotherapy is performed. Specific examples of functional tasks have been detailed, to be considered in creating intelligent health technologies to improve post-stroke gait. Both participants improved scores on the clinical scales, the kinematic parameters in leg stance on plegic lower extremity and walking speed > Minimally Clinically Important Difference (MCID). The use of the VRRS software attached to a motion tracking capture system showed their practical utility and safety in enriching physiotherapeutic assessment and treatment in post-stroke gait disorders.

Singlet fission in linear chains of molecules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ambrosio, Francesco, E-mail: F.Ambrosio@warwick.ac.uk, E-mail: A.Troisi@warwick.ac.uk; Troisi, Alessandro, E-mail: F.Ambrosio@warwick.ac.uk, E-mail: A.Troisi@warwick.ac.uk

2014-11-28

We develop a model configuration interaction Hamiltonian to study the electronic structure of a chain of molecules undergoing singlet fission. We first consider models for dimer and trimer and then we use a matrix partitioning technique to build models of arbitrary size able to describe the relevant electronic structure for singlet fission in linear aggregates. We find that the multi-excitonic state (ME) is stabilized at short inter-monomer distance and the extent of this stabilization depends upon the size of orbital coupling between neighboring monomers. We also find that the coupling between ME states located on different molecules is extremely smallmore » leading to bandwidths in the order of ∼10 meV. This observation suggests that multi-exciton states are extremely localized by electron-phonon coupling and that singlet fission involves the transition between a relatively delocalized Frenkel exciton and a strongly localized multi-exciton state. We adopt the methodology commonly used to study non-radiative transitions to describe the singlet fission dynamics in these aggregates and we discuss the limit of validity of the approach. The results indicate that the phenomenology of singlet fission in molecular crystals is different in many important ways from what is observed in isolated dimers.« less

Pituitary metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma presenting with panhypopituitarism: a case report.

PubMed

Tanaka, Tomoko; Hiramatsu, Katsushi; Nosaka, Takuto; Saito, Yasushi; Naito, Tatsushi; Takahashi, Kazuto; Ofuji, Kazuya; Matsuda, Hidetaka; Ohtani, Masahiro; Nemoto, Tomoyuki; Suto, Hiroyuki; Yamamoto, Tatsuya; Kimura, Hirohiko; Nakamoto, Yasunari

2015-11-06

Metastasis to the pituitary gland is extremely rare and is often detected incidentally by symptoms associated with endocrine dysfunction. Breast and lung cancer are the most common primary metastasizing to pituitary gland. Metastasis from hepatocellular carcinoma to the pituitary gland is extremely rare, with only 10 cases having been previously reported. We present here the first case of pituitary metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma presenting with panhypopituitarism diagnosed by magnetic resonance imaging. We report the case of an 80-year-old Japanese woman who presented with the sudden onset of hypotension and bradycardia after having previously been diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma. Based on low levels of pituitary hormones, she was diagnosed with panhypopituitarism caused by metastasis of the hepatocellular carcinoma to the pituitary gland. Magnetic resonance imaging with arterial spin-labeling was effective in the differential diagnosis of the intrasellar tumor. The patient died despite hormone replacement therapy because of hypovolemic shock. Metastasis to the pituitary gland causes various non-specific symptoms, so it is difficult to diagnose. The present case emphasizes the importance of diagnostic imaging in identifying these metastases. Clinicians should consider the possibility of pituitary metastasis in patients with malignant tumors who demonstrate hypopituitarism.

Poverty Dynamics and Academic Trajectories of Children of Immigrants

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liwei

2017-01-01

Using Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999 (ECLS-K), we investigated the relationship between poverty and academic trajectories for children in immigrant families in the United States. We used family socioeconomic status (SES) which considers parental education, parental occupation, and family income to define poverty in correspondence with the U.S. federal poverty threshold. Three dimensions of poverty were examined including depth (i.e., not-poor, near-poor, poor or extreme poor), stability (i.e., continuously or intermittently), and duration (i.e., for how many times in poverty). Our results indicated that living in poverty, particularly when it was extreme, volatile, and for long spell could compromise children’s reading and math achievements during the first nine schooling years. Children of immigrants were doing as well as, if not better than, children of native-borns in certain areas (i.e., math) or in facing of certain pattern of poverty (i.e., long-spell). However, deep poverty and volatile changes in family SES could compromise academic achievements for children of immigrants throughout their first nine years of schooling, a period holds important key to their future success. Implications to practice and policy as well as future directions were discussed. PMID:28926964

[Probiotics: innocuousness, prevention and risks].

PubMed

Brunser, Oscar

2017-01-01

Probiotics have been defined as live microorganisms which, when ingested in adequate numbers, confer health benefits to the host. They are currently consumed without any age restrictions and adverse effects such as sepsis, a marker of the risk of invasion of the bloodstream, are extremely infrequent. However, some health professionals express doubts about probiotics being truly innocuous. This review discusses the incidence of sepsis secondary to probiotics use, mainly lactobacilli and bifidobacteria, evaluated through molecular biology or classic culture techniques, showing that sepsis in large numbers of individuals along decennia is extremely low, of the order of 0,02% en some centers or as low as 1 case/million population in France. These data are important considering the use different species and strains of these microorganisms. Few studies which have reported other adverse effects but many of these have problems with their design that cast doubt about the validity of their results. On the contrary, it has been shown that probiotic microorganisms exert positive stimulatory effects on innate and acquired immunity, with decrease of the manifestations of atopy and eczema. These positive effects are further evidenced by the beneficial effects of many species of probiotics in preventing necrotizing enterocolitis in patients as functionally labile as premature-born babies.

Deep Vein Thrombosis in Patients with Severe Motor and Intellectual Disabilities

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Most patients with severe motor and intellectual disabilities (SMID) have restricted mobility capability and have been bedridden for long periods because of paralysis of the extremities caused by abnormal muscular tonicity due to cerebral palsy and developmental disabilities, and such patients are associated with a high risk for the complications of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Here, we report 8 patients (34.8%) with DVT among 23 patients with SMID during prolonged bed rest. However, we did not detect thrombosis in the soleal veins, finding it mostly in the superficial femoral and common femoral veins. Regarding laboratory data for the coagulation system, there were no cases with D-dimer above 5 µg/ml. Concerning sudden death in patients with SMID, we have to be very careful of the possibility of pulmonary thromboembolism due to DVT. Therefore, we should consider the particularities of an underdeveloped vascular system from underlying diseases for the evaluation of DVT in patients with SMID. A detailed study of DVT as a vascular complication is very important for smooth medical care of SMID and compression Doppler ultrasonography of the lower extremities, as noninvasive examination, is very helpful. (*English translation of Jpn J Phlebol 2012; 23: 17-24) PMID:24386017

Dynamic Model Predicting Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity Prevalence Trends

PubMed Central

Thomas, Diana M.; Weedermann, Marion; Fuemmeler, Bernard F.; Martin, Corby K.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Bredlau, Carl; Heymsfield, Steven B.; Ravussin, Eric; Bouchard, Claude

2013-01-01

Objective Obesity prevalence in the United States (US) appears to be leveling, but the reasons behind the plateau remain unknown. Mechanistic insights can be provided from a mathematical model. The objective of this study is to model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in body mass index (BMI) classes and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau. Design and Methods A differential equation system was developed that predicts population-wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and non-social influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. Results The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birth rate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of obesity, overweight, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9%, respectively. Conclusions The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence. PMID:23804487

Nonlinear optical and multiphoton processes for in situ manipulation and conversion of photons: applications to energy and healthcare (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, Paras N.

2017-02-01

Chiral control of nonlinear optical functions holds a great promise for a wide range of applications including optical signal processing, bio-sensing and chiral bio-imaging. In chiral polyfluorene thin films, we demonstrated extremely large chiral nonlinearity. The physics of manipulating excitation dynamics for photon transformation will be discussed, along with nanochemistry control of upconversion in hierarchically built organic chromophore coupled-core-multiple shell nanostructures which enable introduce new, organic-inorganic energy transfer routes for broadband light harvesting and increased upconversion efficiency via multistep cascaded energy transfer. We are pursuing the applications of photon conversion technology in IR harvesting for photovoltaics, high contrast bioimaging, photoacoustic imaging, photodynamic therapy, and optogenetics. An important application is in Brain research and Neurophotonics for functional mapping and modulation of brain activities. Another new direction pursued is magnetic field control of light in in a chiral polymer nanocomposite to achieve large magneto-optic coefficient which can enable sensing of extremely weak magnetic field due to brain waves. Finally, we will consider the thought provoking concept of utilizing photons to quantify, through magneto-optics, and augment - through nanoptogenetics, the cognitive states, thus paving the path way to a quantified human paradigm.

[Locomotive syndrome and frailty. Lumbar canal stenosis as an underlying disorder in the locomotive syndrome].

PubMed

Sakai, Yoshihito

2012-04-01

Lumbar canal stenosis most commonly affects the elderly population by entrapment of the cauda equine roots surrounding the spinal canal often associated with pain in the back and lower extremities, difficulty ambulating. The locomotive syndrome refers to high-risk conditions under requiring care services, and lumbar canal stenosis is an important underlying disease. As one of the key capacities of frailty identified muscluloskeletal function, the locomotive syndrome is considered to musculoskeletal frail syndrome. Surgical treatment should be recommended to take the pressure off the nerves in the lumbar spine when the conservative treatments failed, and several studies revealed that the surgery generally resulted in a preferable outcome in the lumbar canal stenosis patients. Among lumbar canal stenosis patients treated with surgery, locomotive syndrome was contained 44% and many of which were seen in thin females. The patients with locomotive syndrome had lower muscle volume both in the extremities and the trunk than those without locomotive syndrome, and surgical results were poorer in the activity of daily life whereas the pain relief was adequately obtained. Treatment of the lumbar canal stenosis should be attended to locomotive frailty, and muscle strengthening training should be incorporated into pre and postoperative therapy.

Consequences of an extreme diet in the professional sport: Refeeding syndrome to a bodybuilder.

PubMed

Lapinskienė, Indrė; Mikulevičienė, Gabija; Laubner, Gabija; Badaras, Robertas

2018-02-01

Refeeding syndrome, as a life-threatening condition, is well known among severely malnourished or deeply metabolically stressed patients. This case presents an atypical manifestation of the syndrome to a young bodybuilder, whose extreme diet, including 5 months of insufficient nourishment before the sport competition and 6 days of carbohydrates overload afterwards, has led him to a bilateral lower - limb paralysis and drastic homeostatic disturbances. Severe hypokalemia, hypophosphatemia, hypomagnesemia and hyperglycemia with mildly elevated liver enzymes have occurred. The patient could barely move his legs and arms, and his state has been followed by a hypertensive crisis, which required an immediate intravenous treatment. Although his weight was 112,5 kg with a body mass index of 32,2 kg per square meter, and his blood serum albumin concentration resulted inside the normal range, the overall condition was corresponding to the state of extenuated and malnourished patients. This case reflects to high prevalence of eating disorders or non-adequate nutrition among weight-sensitive sport athletes. The importance of prevention and opportune diagnostics of refeeding syndrome among special vulnerable groups should be considered. Copyright © 2017 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technical innovations that may facilitate real-time telementoring of damage control surgery in austere environments: a proof of concept comparative evaluation of the importance of surgical experience, telepresence, gravity and mentoring in the conduct of damage control laparotomies.

PubMed

Kirkpatrick, Andrew W; LaPorta, Anthony; Brien, Susan; Leslie, Tim; Glassberg, Elon; McKee, Jessica; Ball, Chad G; Wright Beatty, Heather E; Keillor, Jocelyn; Roberts, Derek J; Tien, Homer

2015-06-01

Bleeding to death is the most preventable cause of posttraumatic death worldwide. Despite the fact that many of these deaths are anatomically salvageable with relatively basic surgical interventions, they remain lethal in actuality in prehospital environments when no facilities and skills exist to contemplate undertaking basic damage control surgery (DCS). With better attention to prehospital control of extremity hemorrhage, intracavitary bleeding (especially intraperitoneal) remains beyond the scope of prehospital providers. However, recent revolutions in the informatics and techniques of telementoring (TMT), DCS and highly realistic accelerated training of motivated first responders suggests that basic lifesaving DCS may have applicability to save bleeding patients in austere environments previously considered unsalvageable. Especially with informatic advances, any provider with Internet connectivity can potentially be supported by highly proficient specialists with content expertise in the index problem. This unprecedented TMT support may allow highly motivated but inexperienced personnel to provide advanced surgical interventions in extreme environments in many austere locations both on and above the planet.

[Blunt force injuries due to martial arts in children--a diagnostic problem? Delayed diagnosis of an infected hematoma].

PubMed

Kruppa, C; Goericke, S L; Matheney, T; Ozokyay, L; Schildhauer, T A; Muhr, G; Dudda, M

2010-10-01

Blunt force injuries in martial arts occur frequently but isolated hematoma of muscles in the extremities is rare. Even minor trauma of the lower extremities due to throwing techniques in judo and other forms of Asian martial arts can lead to major pathologies. A 9-year-old girl presented with an unclear swelling and soreness of the calf muscle. The patient could not remember an obvious traumatic event. She was admitted 4 days later because of increased swelling, pain and erythema. The parents reported a minor trauma at judo training 1 week ago. Further investigation was performed with MRI and confirmed a massive hematoma much greater than previously shown by sonography. Histologic and microbiologic evaluation demonstrated florid inflammation and proof of Staphylococcus aureus was found intra-operatively. The diagnosis of blunt force injuries due to martial arts is difficult in childhood because often children do not remember a traumatic event. Therefore, it is important to obtain a thorough history from caregivers. Because sonography depends highly on the experience of the investigator MRI is considered to be a better diagnostic modality to diagnose and guide treatment in this age group.

Impact of temperature on mortality in Hubei, China: a multi-county time series analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yunquan; Yu, Chuanhua; Bao, Junzhe; Li, Xudong

2017-03-01

We examined the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality in 12 counties across Hubei Province, central China, during 2009-2012. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model was first applied to estimate county-specific relationship between temperature and mortality. A multivariable meta-analysis was then used to pool the estimates of county-specific mortality effects of extreme cold temperature (1st percentile) and hot temperature (99th percentile). An inverse J-shaped relationship was observed between temperature and mortality at the provincial level. Heat effect occurred immediately and persisted for 2-3 days, whereas cold effect was 1-2 days delayed and much longer lasting. Higher mortality risks were observed among females, the elderly aged over 75 years, persons dying outside the hospital and those with high education attainment, especially for cold effects. Our data revealed some slight differences in heat- and cold- related mortality effects on urban and rural residents. These findings may have important implications for developing locally-based preventive and intervention strategies to reduce temperature-related mortality, especially for those susceptible subpopulations. Also, urbanization should be considered as a potential influence factor when evaluating temperature-mortality association in future researches.

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region: Invertebrate species composition, ecology, and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euliss, N.H.; Wrubleski, D.A.; Mushet, D.M.; Batzer, D.P.; Rader, R.B.; Wissinger, S.A.

1999-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States and Canada is a unique area where shallow depressions created by the scouring action of Pleistocene glaciation interact with mid-continental climate variations to create and maintain a variety of wetland classes. These wetlands possess unique environmental and biotic characteristics that add to the overall regional diversity and production of aquatic invertebrates and the vertebrate wildlife that depend upon them as food. Climatic extremes in the PPR have a profound and dynamic influence on wetland hydrology, hydroperiod, chemistry, and ultimately the biota. Available knowledge of aquatic invertebrates in the PPR suggests that diversity of invertebrates within each wetland class is low. Harsh environmental conditions range from frigid winter temperatures that freeze wetlands and their sediments to hot summer temperatures and drought conditions that create steep salinity gradients and seasonally dry habitats. Consequently, the invertebrate community is composed mostly of ecological generalists that possess the necessary adaptations to tolerate environmental extremes. In this review, we describe the highly dynamic nature of prairie pothole wetlands and suggest that invertebrate studies be evaluated within a conceptual framework that considers important hydrologic, chemical, and climatic events.

Poverty Dynamics and Academic Trajectories of Children of Immigrants.

PubMed

Zhang, Liwei; Han, Wen-Jui

2017-09-16

Using Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999 (ECLS-K), we investigated the relationship between poverty and academic trajectories for children in immigrant families in the United States. We used family socioeconomic status (SES) which considers parental education, parental occupation, and family income to define poverty in correspondence with the U.S. federal poverty threshold. Three dimensions of poverty were examined including depth (i.e., not-poor, near-poor, poor or extreme poor), stability (i.e., continuously or intermittently), and duration (i.e., for how many times in poverty). Our results indicated that living in poverty, particularly when it was extreme, volatile, and for long spell could compromise children's reading and math achievements during the first nine schooling years. Children of immigrants were doing as well as, if not better than, children of native-borns in certain areas (i.e., math) or in facing of certain pattern of poverty (i.e., long-spell). However, deep poverty and volatile changes in family SES could compromise academic achievements for children of immigrants throughout their first nine years of schooling, a period holds important key to their future success. Implications to practice and policy as well as future directions were discussed.

Evaluation of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Particle Movement in Open Channel Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, E.; Tsai, C.

2014-12-01

It is important to develop a forecast model to predict the trajectory of sediment particles when extreme flow events occur. In extreme flow environments, the stochastic jump diffusion particle tracking model (SJD-PTM) can be used to model the movement of sediment particles in response to extreme events. This proposed SJD-PTM can be separated into three main parts — a drift motion, a turbulence term and a jump term due to random occurrences of extreme flow events. The study is intended to modify the jump term, which models the abrupt changes of particle position in the extreme flow environments. The frequency of extreme flow occurrences might change due to many uncertain factors such as climate change. The study attempts to use the concept of the logistic regression and the parameter of odds ratio, namely the trend magnitude to investigate the frequency change of extreme flow event occurrences and its impact on sediment particle movement. With the SJD-PTM, the ensemble mean and variance of particle trajectory can be quantified via simulations. The results show that by taking the effect of the trend magnitude into consideration, the particle position and its uncertainty may undergo a significant increase. Such findings will have many important implications to the environmental and hydraulic engineering design and planning. For instance, when the frequency of the occurrence of flow events with higher extremity increases, particles can travel further and faster downstream. It is observed that flow events with higher extremity can induce a higher degree of entrainment and particle resuspension, and consequently more significant bed and bank erosion.

Effect of elevation on extreme precipitation of short durations: evidences of orographic signature on the parameters of Depth-Duration-Frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo; Gabriele, Salvatore; Ghezzi, Antonio; Rosso, Renzo

2015-04-01

Here, we show how atmospheric circulation and topography rule the variability of depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves parameters, and we discuss how this variability has physical implications on the formation of extreme precipitations at high elevations. A DDF is a curve ruling the value of the maximum annual precipitation H as a function of duration D and the level of probability F. We consider around 1500 stations over the Italian territory, with at least 20 years of data of maximum annual precipitation depth at different durations. We estimated the DDF parameters at each location by using the asymptotic distribution of extreme values, i.e. the so-called Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and considering a statistical simple scale invariance hypothesis. Consequently, a DDF curve depends on five different parameters. A first set relates H with the duration (namely, the mean value of annual maximum precipitation depth for unit duration and the scaling exponent), while a second set links H to F (namely, a scale, position and shape parameter). The value of the shape parameter has consequences on the type of random variable (unbounded, upper or lower bounded). This extensive analysis shows that the variability of the mean value of annual maximum precipitation depth for unit duration obeys to the coupled effect of topography and modal direction of moisture flux during extreme events. Median values of this parameter decrease with elevation. We called this phenomenon "reverse orographic effect" on extreme precipitation of short durations, since it is in contrast with general knowledge about the orographic effect on mean precipitation. Moreover, the scaling exponent is mainly driven by topography alone (with increasing values of this parameter at increasing elevations). Therefore, the quantiles of H(D,F) at durations greater than unit turn to be more variable at high elevations than at low elevations. Additionally, the analysis of the variability of the shape parameter with elevation shows that extreme events at high elevations appear to be distributed according to an upper bounded probability distribution. These evidences could be a characteristic sign of the formation of extreme precipitation events at high elevations.

Monitoring Change in Temperate Coniferous Forest Ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Darrel (Technical Monitor); Woodcock, Curtis E.

2004-01-01

The primary goal of this research was to improve monitoring of temperate forest change using remote sensing. In this context, change includes both clearing of forest due to effects such as fire, logging, or land conversion and forest growth and succession. The Landsat 7 ETM+ proved an extremely valuable research tool in this domain. The Landsat 7 program has generated an extremely valuable transformation in the land remote sensing community by making high quality images available for relatively low cost. In addition, the tremendous improvements in the acquisition strategy greatly improved the overall availability of remote sensing images. I believe that from an historical prespective, the Landsat 7 mission will be considered extremely important as the improved image availability will stimulate the use of multitemporal imagery at resolutions useful for local to regional mapping. Also, Landsat 7 has opened the way to global applications of remote sensing at spatial scales where important surface processes and change can be directly monitored. It has been a wonderful experience to have participated on the Landsat 7 Science Team. The research conducted under this project led to contributions in four general domains: I. Improved understanding of the information content of images as a function of spatial resolution; II. Monitoring Forest Change and Succession; III. Development and Integration of Advanced Analysis Methods; and IV. General support of the remote sensing of forests and environmental change. This report is organized according to these topics. This report does not attempt to provide the complete details of the research conducted with support from this grant. That level of detail is provided in the 16 peer reviewed journal articles, 7 book chapters and 5 conference proceedings papers published as part of this grant. This report attempts to explain how the various publications fit together to improve our understanding of how forests are changing and how to monitor forest change with remote sensing. There were no new inventions that resulted from this grant.

The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2.

PubMed

Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Zobel, Zachary; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R

2017-07-01

Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995-2004 and 2085-2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent advances in environmental data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhail

2016-04-01

Due to the large amount and complexity of data available nowadays in geo- and environmental sciences, we face the need to develop and incorporate more robust and efficient methods for their analysis, modelling and visualization. An important part of these developments deals with an elaboration and application of a contemporary and coherent methodology following the process from data collection to the justification and communication of the results. Recent fundamental progress in machine learning (ML) can considerably contribute to the development of the emerging field - environmental data science. The present research highlights and investigates the different issues that can occur when dealing with environmental data mining using cutting-edge machine learning algorithms. In particular, the main attention is paid to the description of the self-consistent methodology and two efficient algorithms - Random Forest (RF, Breiman, 2001) and Extreme Learning Machines (ELM, Huang et al., 2006), which recently gained a great popularity. Despite the fact that they are based on two different concepts, i.e. decision trees vs artificial neural networks, they both propose promising results for complex, high dimensional and non-linear data modelling. In addition, the study discusses several important issues of data driven modelling, including feature selection and uncertainties. The approach considered is accompanied by simulated and real data case studies from renewable resources assessment and natural hazards tasks. In conclusion, the current challenges and future developments in statistical environmental data learning are discussed. References - Breiman, L., 2001. Random Forests. Machine Learning 45 (1), 5-32. - Huang, G.-B., Zhu, Q.-Y., Siew, C.-K., 2006. Extreme learning machine: theory and applications. Neurocomputing 70 (1-3), 489-501. - Kanevski, M., Pozdnoukhov, A., Timonin, V., 2009. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. EPFL Press; Lausanne, Switzerland, p.392. - Leuenberger, M., Kanevski, M., 2015. Extreme Learning Machines for spatial environmental data. Computers and Geosciences 85, 64-73.

Minimally important difference of the Treatment Satisfaction with Medicines Questionnaire (SATMED-Q)

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A previous study has documented the reliability and validity of the Treatment Satisfaction with Medicines Questionnaire (SATMED-Q) in exploring patient satisfaction with medicines for chronic health conditions in routine medical practice, but the minimally important difference (MID) of this tool is as yet unknown. The objective of this research was to estimate the MID for the SATMED-Q total score and six constituent domains. Methods The sample of patients (456 subjects, mean age 59 years, 53% male) used for testing psychometric properties was also used to assess MID. Item #14 of the Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire for Medication (TSQM) was used as an anchor reference since it directly explores satisfaction with medicine on a 7-point ordinal scale (from extremely satisfied to extremely dissatisfied, with a neutral category). Patients were classified into four categories according to responses to this item (extremely satisfied/dissatisfied, very satisfied/dissatisfied, satisfied/dissatisfied, neither satisfied nor dissatisfied (neutral), and calculations were made for the total score and each domain of the SATMED-Q using standardised scores. The mean absolute differences in total score (and domains) between the neutral category and the satisfied/dissatisfied category were considered to be the MID. Effect sizes (ES) were also computed. Results The MID for the total score was 13.4 (ES = 0.91), while the domain values ranged from 10.3 (medical care domain, ES = 0.43) to 20.6 (impact on daily living, ES = 0.85). Mean differences in satisfaction (as measured by the total SATMED-Q score and domain scores) using the levels of satisfaction established by item #14 were significantly different, with F values ranging from 12.2 to 88.8 (p < 0.001 in all cases). Conclusion The SATMED-Q was demonstrated to be responsive to different levels of patient satisfaction with therapy in chronically ill subjects. The MID obtained was 13.4 points for the overall normalised scoring scale, and between 10.3 and 20.6 points for domains. PMID:22014277

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

How does Interactive Chemistry Influence the Representation of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in a Climate Model?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haase, S.; Matthes, K. B.

2017-12-01

Changes in stratospheric ozone can trigger tropospheric circulation changes. In the Southern hemisphere (SH), the observed shift of the Southern Annular Mode was attributed to the observed trend in lower stratospheric ozone. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), a recent study showed that extremely low stratospheric ozone conditions during spring produce robust anomalies in the troposphere (zonal wind, temperature and precipitation). This could only be reproduced in a coupled chemistry climate model indicating that chemical-dynamical feedbacks are also important on the NH. To further investigate the importance of interactive chemistry for surface climate, we conducted a set of experiments using NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) as the atmosphere component. WACCM contains a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry module in its standard configuration. It also allows for an alternative configuration, referred to as SC-WACCM, in which the chemistry (O3, NO, O, O2, CO2 and chemical and shortwave heating rates) is specified as a 2D field in the radiation code. A comparison of the interactive vs. the specified chemistry version enables us to evaluate the relative importance of interactive chemistry by systematically inhibiting the feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics. To diminish the effect of temporal interpolation when prescribing ozone, we use daily resolved zonal mean ozone fields for the specified chemistry run. Here, we investigate the differences in stratosphere-troposphere coupling between the interactive and specified chemistry simulations for the mainly chemically driven SH as well as for the mainly dynamically driven NH. We will especially consider years that are characterized by extremely low stratospheric ozone on the one hand and by large dynamical disturbances, i.e. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, on the other hand.

Nonstationary Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Drainge Infrastructure Coping with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byung Sik; Jeung, Se Jin; Lee, Dong Seop; Han, Woo Suk

2015-04-01

As the abnormal rainfall condition has been more and more frequently happen and serious by climate change and variabilities, the question whether the design of drainage system could be prepared with abnormal rainfall condition or not has been on the rise. Usually, the drainage system has been designed by rainfall I-D-F (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curve with assumption that I-D-F curve is stationary. The design approach of the drainage system has limitation not to consider the extreme rainfall condition of which I-D-F curve is non-stationary by climate change and variabilities. Therefore, the assumption that the I-D-F curve is stationary to design drainage system maybe not available in the climate change period, because climate change has changed the characteristics of extremes rainfall event to be non-stationary. In this paper, design rainfall by rainfall duration and non-stationary I-D-F curve are derived by the conditional GEV distribution considering non-stationary of rainfall characteristics. Furthermore, the effect of designed peak flow with increase of rainfall intensity was analyzed by distributed rainfall-runoff model, S-RAT(Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool). Although there are some difference by rainfall duration, the traditional I-D-F curves underestimates the extreme rainfall events for high-frequency rainfall condition. As a result, this paper suggest that traditional I-D-F curves could not be suitable for the design of drainage system under climate change condition. Keywords : Drainage system, Climate Change, non-stationary, I-D-F curves This research was supported by a grant 'Development of multi-function debris flow control technique considering extreme rainfall event' [NEMA-Natural-2014-74] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of KOREA

Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

PubMed

Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

2015-02-24

Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

Defense Science Board Task Force on Military Satellite Communication and Tactical Networking. Executive Summary

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

Communications SMC Space and Missile Systems Center SEV Space Enterprise Vision SHF Super High Frequency SINCGARS Single Channel Ground-Air Radio...Appendix D:Acronyms A2/AD Anti-Access/Area Denial ADNS Automated Digital Network System AEHF Advanced Extremely High Frequency AFSPC Air Force Space ...medium-rate modes of defense extremely high frequency (EHF) SATCOM. This reality should be considered a crisis to be dealt with immediately. In

High-Flow Arteriovenous Malformation of the Lower Extremity: Ethanolamine Oleate Sclerotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hyodoh, Hideki; Fujita, Akifumi; Hyodoh, Kazusa

2001-09-15

We report the case of a young man presenting with high-flow arteriovenous malformation (AVM), in whom percutaneous direct nidus puncture ethanolamine oleate (EO) sclerotherapy was useful in the management of the AVM. To our knowledge, this is the first report of percutaneous trans-nidus EO sclerotherapy for AVM in the extremities. Percutaneous trans-nidus sclerotherapy should be considered as an alternative choice for the management of symptomatic AVM.

Neighboring extremals of dynamic optimization problems with path equality constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, A. Y.

1988-01-01

Neighboring extremals of dynamic optimization problems with path equality constraints and with an unknown parameter vector are considered in this paper. With some simplifications, the problem is reduced to solving a linear, time-varying two-point boundary-value problem with integral path equality constraints. A modified backward sweep method is used to solve this problem. Two example problems are solved to illustrate the validity and usefulness of the solution technique.

Enzymes from Extreme Environments and Their Industrial Applications

PubMed Central

Littlechild, Jennifer A.

2015-01-01

This article will discuss the importance of specific extremophilic enzymes for applications in industrial biotechnology. It will specifically address those enzymes that have applications in the area of biocatalysis. Such enzymes now play an important role in catalyzing a variety of chemical conversions that were previously carried out by traditional chemistry. The biocatalytic process is carried out under mild conditions and with greater specificity. The enzyme process does not result in the toxic waste that is usually produced in a chemical process that would require careful disposal. In this sense, the biocatalytic process is referred to as carrying out “green chemistry” which is considered to be environmentally friendly. Some of the extremophilic enzymes to be discussed have already been developed for industrial processes such as an l-aminoacylase and a γ-lactamase. The industrial applications of other extremophilic enzymes, including transaminases, carbonic anhydrases, dehalogenases, specific esterases, and epoxide hydrolases, are currently being assessed. Specific examples of these industrially important enzymes that have been studied in the authors group will be presented in this review. PMID:26528475

Validity assessment and the neurological physical examination.

PubMed

Zasler, Nathan D

2015-01-01

The assessment of any patient or examinee with neurological impairment, whether acquired or congenital, provides a key set of data points in the context of developing accurate diagnostic impressions and implementing an appropriate neurorehabilitation program. As part of that assessment, the neurological physical exam is an extremely important component of the overall neurological assessment. In the aforementioned context, clinicians often are confounded by unusual, atypical or unexplainable physical exam findings that bring into question the organicity, veracity, and/or underlying cause of the observed clinical presentation. The purpose of this review is to provide readers with general directions and specific caveats regarding validity assessment in the context of the neurological physical exam. It is of utmost importance for health care practitioners to be aware of assessment methodologies that may assist in determining the validity of the neurological physical exam and differentiating organic from non-organic/functional impairments. Maybe more importantly, the limitations of many commonly used strategies for assessment of non-organicity should be recognized and consider prior to labeling observed physical findings on neurological exam as non-organic or functional.

Review article: Paediatric status epilepticus in the pre-hospital setting: An update.

PubMed

Furyk, Jeremy; Watt, Kerriane; Emeto, Theophilus I; Dalziel, Stuart; Bodnar, Daniel; Riney, Kate; Babl, Franz E

2017-08-01

Paediatric status epilepticus (SE) is a medical emergency and a common critical condition confronting pre-hospital providers. Management in the pre-hospital environment is challenging but considered extremely important as a potentially modifiable factor on outcome. Recent data from multicentre clinical trials, quality observational studies and consensus documents have influenced management in this area, and is important to both pre-hospital providers and emergency physicians. The objective of this review was to: (i) present an overview of the available evidence relevant to pre-hospital care of paediatric SE; and (ii) assess the current pre-hospital practice guidelines in Australia and New Zealand. The review outlines current definitions and guidelines of SE management, regional variability in pre-hospital protocols within Australasia and aspects of pre-hospital care that could potentially be improved. Contemporary data is required to determine current practice in our setting. It is important that paediatric neurologists, emergency physicians and pre-hospital care providers are all engaged in future endeavours to improve clinical care and knowledge translation efforts for this patient group. © 2017 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Conducting pharmaceutical R&D in India - Critical components of entry strategies.

PubMed

Gulati, Rajiv

2008-11-01

In the face of challenges associated with expiring patents, the rising cost of R&D and pressure on pricing, most major pharmaceutical companies are seeking ways to enhance productivity, reduce costs and augment the late-stage new-product pipeline. Exploiting the R&D capabilities in India is one option that can be helpful in achieving these goals. However, considering the challenges involved, important considerations must be incorporated to ensure that an appropriate R&D strategy is meticulously implemented. In creating suitable strategies, it is important to understand the historical perspective that provides insight into the relative strengths of companies in India across the R&D value chain. In addition, the ability of a company to take risks and commit to a long-term investment will largely determine the model that is selected. To implement a given model, an understanding of cultural differences and infrastructural challenges that must be overcome is extremely important. The ultimate factor that determines success or failure, however, lies within the organization. Preparing an organization by establishing appropriate structures and processes is imperative.

Controlling extreme events on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-08-01

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network ``mobile'' can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

The Importance of Visit Notes on Patient Portals for Engaging Less Educated or Nonwhite Patients: Survey Study

PubMed Central

Gerard, Macda; Chimowitz, Hannah; Fossa, Alan; Bourgeois, Fabienne; Fernandez, Leonor

2018-01-01

Background OpenNotes, a national initiative to share clinicians’ visit notes with patients, can improve patient engagement, but effects on vulnerable populations are not known very well. Objective Our aim is to examine the importance of visit notes to nonwhite and less educated patients. Methods Patients at an urban academic medical center with an active patient portal account and ≥1 available ambulatory visit note over the prior year were surveyed during June 2016 until September 2016. The survey was designed with patients and families and assessed importance of reading notes (scale 0-10) for (1) understanding health conditions, (2) feeling informed about care, (3) understanding the provider’s thought process, (4) remembering the plan of care, and (5) making decisions about care. We compared the proportion of patients reporting 9-10 (extremely important) for each item stratified by education level, race/ethnicity, and self-reported health. Principal component analysis and correlation measures supported a summary score for the 5 items (Cronbach alpha=.93). We examined factors associated with rating notes as extremely important to engage in care using logistic regression. Results Of 24,722 patients, 6913 (27.96%) completed the survey. The majority (6736/6913, 97.44%) read at least one note. Among note readers, 74.0% (727/982) of patients with ≤high school education, 70.7% (130/184) of black patients, and 69.9% (153/219) of Hispanic/Latino patients reported that notes are extremely important to feel informed about their care. The majority of less educated and nonwhite patients reported notes as extremely important to remember the care plan (62.4%, 613/982 ≤high school education; 62.0%, 114/184 black patients; and 61.6%, 135/219 Hispanic/Latino patients) and to make care decisions (62.3%, 612/982; 59.8%, 110/184; and 58.5%, 128/219, respectively, and P<.003 for all comparisons to more educated and white patients, respectively). Among patients with the poorest self-reported health, 65.9% (499/757) found notes extremely important to be informed and to understand the provider. On multivariable modeling, less educated patients were nearly three times as likely to report notes were extremely important to engage in care compared with the most educated patients (odds ratio [OR] 2.9, 95% CI 2.4-3.3). Nonwhite patients were twice as likely to report the same compared with white patients (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.5-2.7 [black] and OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-2.9 [Hispanic/Latino and Asian], P<.001 for each comparison). Healthier patients, women, older patients, and those who read more notes were more likely to find notes extremely important to engage in care. Conclusions Less educated and nonwhite patients using the portal each assigned higher importance to reading notes for several health behaviors than highly educated and white patients, and may find transparent notes especially valuable for understanding their health and engaging in their care. Facilitating access to notes may improve engagement in health care for some vulnerable populations who have historically been more challenging to reach. PMID:29793900

Urban development under extreme hydrologic and weather conditions for El Paso-Juarez: Recommendations resulting from hydrologic modeling, GIS, and remote sensing analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barud-Zubillaga, Alberto

During the 2006 El Paso-Juarez flood there were many concerns regarding the capability of the existing stormwater system to handle 50- and 100-year flood events in El Paso, Texas and Juarez, Mexico area. Moreover in 2008, a considerable wet year from the normal 223 mm of annual precipitation for El Paso demonstrated that the area could very well received large amounts of precipitation at localized areas in short periods of time, representing a great flood threat to residents living in areas prone to flood. Some climate change projections for the area are exactly what had occurred over the last two decades; an increased number of torrential rainstorms over smaller concentrated pieces of land separated by longer years of drought between rainstorms. This study consisted in three projects focused on three critical regions within the El Paso-Juarez area that were greatly affected by the 2006 Flood. The goal was to identify if natural arroyos or the existent built stormwater system, could properly managed the projected precipitation patterns. The three projects described in this dissertation touch on the following points: (a) the importance of a reliable precipitation model that could accurately describes precipitation patterns in the region under extreme drought and wet climates conditions; (b) differences in land use/land cover characteristics as factors promoting or disrupting the possibility for flooding, and (c) limitations and capabilities of existent stormwater systems and natural arroyos as means to control flooding. Conclusions and recommendations are shown below, which apply not only to each particular project, but also to all study areas and similar areas in the El Paso-Juarez region. Urbanization can improve or worsen a pre-existing natural stormwater system if built under its required capacity. Such capacity should be calculated considering extreme weather conditions, based on a denser network of precipitation stations to capture the various microclimates found in the region and taking into account climate change predictions. Development of new areas needs to consider not only the watershed of study but its relation to other watersheds around them. Basin parameters seemed to be of low impact while comparing them with precipitation rates. High resolution DEMs, such as those derived from LiDAR can dramatically improve the accuracy and reliability of a hydrological model. Hardware capabilities and limitations however should be considered. The overall recommendations derived from this dissertation are to direct new studies, policies and regulations at the three levels of government---local, state and federal---to: limit urban development to areas of no or low potential for flooding; implementing some type of ecological, green corridors, or conservation easements to preserve these areas; build semi-natural or hybrid stormwater infrastructure to slowdown, collect, and ultimately, transport runoff to the Rio Grande or any other waterway; consider extreme wet and dry scenarios for designation of flood-prone areas and future construction of stormwater infrastructure; and design stormwater infrastructure to retrofit the existing natural and irrigation drains.

Improving Predictions and Management of Hydrological Extremes through Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Hurk, Bart; Wijngaard, Janet; Pappenberger, Florian; Bouwer, Laurens; Weerts, Albrecht; Buontempo, Carlo; Doescher, Ralf; Manez, Maria; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Hananel, Cedric; Ercin, Ertug; Hunink, Johannes; Klein, Bastian; Pouget, Laurent; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

The EU Roadmap on Climate Services can be seen as a result of convergence between the society's call for "actionable research", and the climate research community providing tailored data, information and knowledge. However, although weather and climate have clearly distinct definitions, a strong link between weather and climate services exists that is not explored extensively. Stakeholders being interviewed in the context of the Roadmap consider climate as a far distant long term feature that is difficult to consider in present-day decision taking, which is dominated by daily experience with handling extreme events. It is argued that this experience is a rich source of inspiration to increase society's resilience to an unknown future. A newly started European research project, IMPREX, is built on the notion that "experience in managing current day weather extremes is the best learning school to anticipate consequences of future climate". This paper illustrates possible ways to increase the link between information and services addressing weather and climate time scales by discussing the underlying concepts of IMPREX and its expected outcome.

An Assessment of Research Gaps Related to Deep Water Wellbore Integrity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkach, M. K.; Radonjic, M.; Kutchko, B. G.

2017-12-01

In order for a deep-water wellbore to uphold its integrity under high pressure - high temperature conditions, the wellbore must possess complete zonal isolation while surrounded in an extreme environment. Highly variable temperature and pressure ranges, shallow flow zones, as well as potentially corrosive fluids and gasses all present unique challenges to the job of the cement which maintains that zonal isolation. As such, alternative options to mainstream choices often present themselves as attractive avenues of discovery. As it is of utmost importance to maintain structural integrity under HPHT conditions, cement slurries are pumped downhole to provide zonal isolation and structural support to offshore wells. The wellbore system potentially faces a variety of temperature and pressure fluctuations from the immediate onset. These fluctuations may affect the hydration properties of the cement. It is also important to consider the chemical interactions that the cement may have at the rock-cement interface where potential degradation or annulus gaps may occur further risking a decrease in zonal isolation. This presentation intends to review some of the important issues regarding zonal isolation in HPHT conditions and to highlight critical knowledge gaps in order to generate important research questions.

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

Tambora and the mackerel year: phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Karen E.; Leavenworth, William B.; Hall, Carolyn; Mattocks, Steven; Bittner, Steven M.; Klein, Emily; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Bryan, Alexander; Rosset, Julianne; Willis, Theodore V.; Carr, Benjamin H.; Jordaan, Adrian

2017-01-01

Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future.

Tambora and the mackerel year: Phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

PubMed Central

Alexander, Karen E.; Leavenworth, William B.; Willis, Theodore V.; Hall, Carolyn; Mattocks, Steven; Bittner, Steven M.; Klein, Emily; Staudinger, Michelle; Bryan, Alexander; Rosset, Julianne; Carr, Benjamin H.; Jordaan, Adrian

2017-01-01

Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future. PMID:28116356

Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

2013-04-01

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences

PubMed Central

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Catto, Jennifer L.

2017-01-01

Phenomena such as cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms can cause extreme weather in various regions throughout the world. Although these phenomena have been examined in numerous studies, they have not all been systematically examined in combination with each other, including in relation to extreme precipitation and extreme winds throughout the world. Consequently, the combined influence of these phenomena represents a substantial gap in the current understanding of the causes of extreme weather events. Here we present a systematic analysis of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in combination with each other, as represented by seven different types of storm combinations. Our results highlight the storm combinations that most frequently cause extreme weather in various regions of the world. The highest risk of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speeds is found to be associated with a triple storm type characterized by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Our findings reveal new insight on the relationships between cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms and clearly demonstrate the importance of concurrent phenomena in causing extreme weather. PMID:28074909

Emotional intelligence in medical laboratory science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Travis

The purpose of this study was to explore the role of emotional intelligence (EI) in medical laboratory science, as perceived by laboratory administrators. To collect and evaluate these perceptions, a survey was developed and distributed to over 1,400 medical laboratory administrators throughout the U.S. during January and February of 2013. In addition to demographic-based questions, the survey contained a list of 16 items, three skills traditionally considered important for successful work in the medical laboratory as well as 13 EI-related items. Laboratory administrators were asked to rate each item for its importance for job performance, their satisfaction with the item's demonstration among currently working medical laboratory scientists (MLS) and the amount of responsibility college-based medical laboratory science programs should assume for the development of each skill or attribute. Participants were also asked about EI training in their laboratories and were given the opportunity to express any thoughts or opinions about EI as it related to medical laboratory science. This study revealed that each EI item, as well as each of the three other items, was considered to be very or extremely important for successful job performance. Administrators conveyed that they were satisfied overall, but indicated room for improvement in all areas, especially those related to EI. Those surveyed emphasized that medical laboratory science programs should continue to carry the bulk of the responsibility for the development of technical skills and theoretical knowledge and expressed support for increased attention to EI concepts at the individual, laboratory, and program levels.

What do people think about running barefoot/with minimalist footwear? A thematic analysis.

PubMed

Walton, Peter D; French, David P

2016-05-01

Barefoot running describes when individuals run without footwear. Minimalist running utilizes shoes aimed to mimic being barefoot. Although these forms of running have become increasingly popular, we still know little about how recreational runners perceive them. In-depth interviews with eight recreational runners were used to gather information about their running experiences with a focus on barefoot and minimalist running. Interviews were analysed using a latent level thematic analysis to identify and interpret themes within the data. Although participants considered barefoot running to be 'natural', they also considered it to be extreme. Minimalist running did not produce such aversive reactions. 'Support' reassured against concerns and was seen as central in protecting vulnerable body parts and reducing impact forces, but lacked a common or clear definition. A preference for practical over academic knowledge was found. Anecdotal information was generally trusted, as were running stores with gait assessment, but not health professionals. People often have inconsistent ideas about barefoot and minimalist running, which are often formed by potentially biased sources, which may lead people to make poor decisions about barefoot and minimalist running. It is important to provide high-quality information to enable better decisions to be made about barefoot and minimalist running. What is already known on this subject? There is no known work on the psychology behind barefoot and minimalist running. We believe our study is the first qualitative study to have investigated views of this increasingly popular form of running. What does this study add? The results suggest that although barefoot running is considered 'natural', it is also considered 'extreme'. Minimalist running, however, did not receive such aversive reactions. 'Support' was a common concern among runners. Although 'support' reassured against concerns and was seen as central in protecting vulnerable body parts and reducing impact forces, it lacked a common or clear definition. A preference for practical over academic knowledge was found. Anecdotal information was generally trusted, as were running stores with gait assessment, but not health professionals. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and their Economical Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Perea, N.; Emerson, D.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

2011-12-01

The frequency of occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes varies from tens to thousands of years, depending on the considered seismotectonic region of the world. However, the human and economic losses when their hypocenters are located in the neighborhood of heavily populated and/or industrialized regions, can be very large, as recently observed for the 1985 Mw 8.01 Michoacan, Mexico and the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes. Herewith, a methodology is proposed in order to estimate the probability of exceedance of: the intensities of extreme magnitude earthquakes, PEI and of their direct economical consequences PEDEC. The PEI are obtained by using supercomputing facilities to generate samples of the 3D propagation of extreme earthquake plausible scenarios, and enlarge those samples by Monte Carlo simulation. The PEDEC are computed by using appropriate vulnerability functions combined with the scenario intensity samples, and Monte Carlo simulation. An example of the application of the methodology due to the potential occurrence of extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquakes on Mexico City is presented.

The effect of extremity strength training on fibromyalgia symptoms and disease impact in an existing multidisciplinary treatment program.

PubMed

Kas, Tamara; Colby, Megan; Case, Maureen; Vaughn, Dan

2016-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of upper and lower body extremity strengthening exercise in patients with Fibromyalgia (FM) within an existing multidisciplinary treatment program. Patients between the ages of 18-65 with the medical diagnosis of FM. Comparative study design. The control and experimental group received the same multidisciplinary treatment except that the experimental group performed upper and lower extremity strengthening exercises. The Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ) was administered at evaluation and discharge from the program in order to measure change in quality of life (QOL). Statistically significant changes in FIQ scores were found for both groups. The addition of extremity strengthening in the experimental group produced an average 4 points greater reduction in FIQ score, however, these results are not considered statistically significant. This study appears to validate the success of a multidisciplinary approach in treating patients with FM, with the possibility for further benefit with the addition of extremity strengthening. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early neurodevelopmental outcomes of extremely preterm infants.

PubMed

Rogers, Elizabeth E; Hintz, Susan R

2016-12-01

Infants born at extreme preterm gestation are at risk for both death and disability. Although rates of survival have improved for this population, and some evidence suggests a trend toward decreased neuromotor impairment over the past decades, a significant improvement in overall early neurodevelopmental outcome has not yet been realized. This review will examine the rates and types of neurodevelopmental impairment seen after extremely preterm birth, including neurosensory, motor, cognitive, and behavioral outcomes. We focus on early outcomes in the first 18-36 months of life, as the majority of large neonatal studies examining neurodevelopmental outcomes stop at this age. However, this early age is clearly just a first glimpse into lifetime outcomes; the neurodevelopmental effects of extreme prematurity may last through school age, adolescence, and beyond. Importantly, prematurity appears to be an independent risk factor for adverse development, but this population demonstrates considerable variability in the types and severity of impairments. Understanding both the nature and prevalence of neurodevelopmental impairment among extremely preterm infants is important because it can lead to targeted interventions that in turn may lead to improved outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Lower-Extremity Injuries Among Contemporary Dance Students.

PubMed

van Seters, Christine; van Rijn, Rogier M; van Middelkoop, Marienke; Stubbe, Janine H

2017-10-10

To determine whether student characteristics, lower-extremity kinematics, and strength are risk factors for sustaining lower-extremity injuries in preprofessional contemporary dancers. Prospective cohort study. Codarts University of the Arts. Forty-five first-year students of Bachelor Dance and Bachelor Dance Teacher. At the beginning of the academic year, the injury history (only lower-extremity) and student characteristics (age, sex, educational program) were assessed using a questionnaire. Besides, lower-extremity kinematics [single-leg squat (SLS)], strength (countermovement jump) and height and weight (body mass index) were measured during a physical performance test. Substantial lower-extremity injuries during the academic year were defined as any problems leading to moderate or severe reductions in training volume or in performance, or complete inability to participate in dance at least once during follow-up as measured with the Oslo Sports Trauma Research Center (OSTRC) Questionnaire on Health Problems. Injuries were recorded on a monthly basis using a questionnaire. Analyses on leg-level were performed using generalized estimating equations to test the associations between substantial lower-extremity injuries and potential risk factors. The 1-year incidence of lower-extremity injuries was 82.2%. Of these, 51.4% was a substantial lower-extremity injury. Multivariate analyses identified that ankle dorsiflexion during the SLS (OR 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.52) was a risk factor for a substantial lower-extremity injury. The findings indicate that contemporary dance students are at high risk for lower-extremity injuries. Therefore, the identified risk factor (ankle dorsiflexion) should be considered for prevention purposes.

Tales from the Paleoclimate Underground: Lessons Learned from Reconstructing Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frappier, A. E.

2017-12-01

Tracing patterns of paleoclimate extremes over the past two millennia is becoming ever more important in the effort to understand and predict costly weather hazards and their varied societal impacts. I present three paleoclimate vignettes from the past ten years of different paleotempestology projects I have worked on closely, illustrating our collective challenges and productive pathways in reconstructing rainfall extremes: temporal, spatial, and combining information from disparate proxies. Finally, I aim to share new results from modeling multiple extremes and hazards in Yucatan, a climate change hotspot.

Improving the analysis of social component of flash-floods risk assessment: Application to urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque del Pozo, Jose Maria; Garcia Martin, Juan Antonio; Diez Herrero, Andres

2016-04-01

The increasing evidence of anthropogenic climate change, the respective intensification of extreme events as well as the increase in human exposure to natural hazards and their vulnerability show that the enhancement of strategies on how to reduce disaster risk and promote adaptation to extreme events is critical to increase resilience. Growing economic losses, high numbers of casualties and the disruption of livelihoods in various places of the world, at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Social vulnerability characterizes the predisposition of society to be afflicted by hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. Despite its importance, social vulnerability is often a neglected aspect of traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on economic and structural measures. The aim of this research is to identify those social characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazards, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is a Social Susceptibility Index (SSI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Analysis of demographic and socio-economic information provided by different public organisms. By adding exposure information to SSI, a Social and Infraestructure Flood Vulnerability Index (SIFVI) is created. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,226 km2). Townships that are included in this study meet two requirements: i) city centres are affected by an area where potential significant flash-flood risk exists (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01); ii) city centres are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability of flooding (as provided by Directive 2007/60/EC of 23 october 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks) acording with the preliminary assessment of flood risk made by water authorities. This analysis of social vulnerability to flash floods means an advance in relation to disaster risk reduction allowing for grouping urban areas with similar resilience. With regard to the above, strengthening of resilience is one of the most important foundation of risk mitigation.

Climate changes, environment and infection: facts, scenarios and growing awareness from the public health community within Europe.

PubMed

Bezirtzoglou, Christos; Dekas, Konstantinos; Charvalos, Ekatherina

2011-12-01

Climate change is a current global concern and, despite continuing controversy about the extent and importance of causes and of its effects, it seems likely that it will affect the incidence and prevalence of both residual and imported infections in Europe. Climate affects mainly the range of infectious diseases, whereas weather affects the timing and intensity of outbreaks. Climate change scenarios include a change distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extremes. The largest health impact from climate change for Europe doesn't come from vector borne infectious diseases. This does not mean that these types of health impacts will not arise in Europe. The ranges of several vector-borne diseases or their vectors are already changing in altitude due to warming. In addition, more intense weather events create conditions conductive to outbreaks of infectious diseases: Heavy rains leave insect breeding sites, drive rodents from burrows, and contaminate clean water systems. The incidence of mosquito-borne parasitic and viral diseases, are among those diseases most sensitive to climate. Climate change affect disease transmission by shifting the vector's geographic range and by shortening the pathogen incubation period. climate-related increases in temperature in sea surface and level would lead to higher incidence of waterborne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and seafood intoxication. Climate changes all around the world with impact in Europe are demonstrated by the fact that recent cases of cholera have been imported to Europe from Kenya, where spreading epidemic has been linked to the El Niño phenomenon, originated from the Pacific Ocean. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from aberrant climate changes could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by alterations in the human immune system caused by increased exposure to ultraviolet radiation and malnutrition due to alterations in agricultural products. Different kind of incidents in Europe with extreme weather events demonstrated effects on public health. The recent outbreak of the insect-borne Chikungunya virus in Italy in 2007 is an example of the kind of new health threat that the EU must be vigilant to confront. In addition, health effects of flooding, have been related to an excess cases of leptospirosis and campylobacter enteritis. Such examples have been demonstrated reported after flooding in the Czech Republic. Similarly, an increase of cryptosporidiosis in the United Kingdom has been related to flooding. Changing vector distributions associated with tickborne encephalitis and malaria have also been demonstrated in EU. A recently reported case of malaria in Italy in June 2008, suspected to be indigenously acquired, has shown how easily malaria could be reintroduced into several countries in the region. Another case of malaria in Greece in May 2010 affecting a young man living in a forestry region was claimed at KEELPNO-the Greek Center for disease control. Would this latest case be considered closely related to the one from Italy? If yes, then Public Health Services should elaborate plans to affront possible tickborne diseases. Heat waves are important causes of mortality on mortality are important. The deaths seen in France in 2003 from a heat wave are projected to be repeated, as heat waves become more severe. However, heat waves impacts on the transmission and severity of infectious diseases have not been elucidated. Finally scientific challenges include the elucudation of climate changes and extreme weather condition impact on infection transmission and outcome, human immune system changes and infection response, outbreak scenarios, animal and plant health and public health preparedness. European action plans to affront climate changes related health and infection problems are developed by the EU Commission at different levels and jointly by different DGs. In a few words within the EU the following points on human, animal and plant health are considered a priority: * Strengthening cooperation between the services of these three branches of health (human, animals, plants); * Developing action plans in the event of extreme weather conditions, in order to be better prepared and to react in the best way; * Gathering more reliable information on the risks of climate change whilst maintaining international cooperation, in particular with the WHO, as cooperation beyond that between Member States will be required to be more effective; * Providing additional effort to identify the most effective measures; * Improving the surveillance and the control of the animal diseases. The European Commission has decided to consider climate change, and the consequences it has on health, with greater importance whilst being aware that it is at the root of numerous diseases. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (mjo) on Extreme Rainfall Over the Central and Southern Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidinger, H.; Jones, C.; Carvalho, L. V.

2015-12-01

Extreme rainfall is important for the Andean region because of the large contribution of these events to the seasonal totals and consequent impacts on water resources for agriculture, water consumption, industry and hydropower generation, as well as the occurrence of floods and landslides. Over Central and Southern Peruvian Andes (CSPA), rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile contributed between 44 to 100% to the total Nov-Mar 1979-2010 rainfall. Additionally, precipitation from a large majority of stations in the CSPA exhibits statistically significant spectral peaks on intraseasonal time-scales (20 to 70 days). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most important intraseasonal mode of atmospheric circulation and moist convection in the tropics and the occurrence of extreme weather events worldwide. Mechanisms explaining the relationships between the MJO and precipitation in the Peruvian Andes have not been properly described yet. The present study examines the relationships between the activity and phases of the MJO and the occurrence of extreme rainfall over the CSPA. We found that the frequency of extreme rainfall events increase in the CSPA when the MJO is active. MJO phases 5, 6 and 7 contribute to the overall occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the CSPA. However, how the MJO phases modulate extreme rainfall depends on the location of the stations. For instance, extreme precipitation (above the 90th percentile) in stations in the Amazon basin are slightly more sensitive to phases 2, 3 and 4; the frequency of extremes in stations in the Pacific basin increases in phases 5, 6 and 7 whereas phase 2, 3 and 7 modulates extreme precipitation in stations in the Titicaca basin. Greater variability among stations is observed when using the 95th and 99th percentiles to identify extremes. Among the main mechanisms that explain the increase in extreme rainfall events in the Peruvian Andes is the intensification of the easterly moisture flux anomalies, which are favored during certain phases of the MJO. Here dynamical mechanisms linking the MJO to the occurrence of extreme rainfall in stations in the Peruvian Andes are investigated using composites of integrated moisture flux and geopotential height anomalies.

Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glisan, Justin Michael

Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using climatological records, regional weather patterns, and geographical/topographical features. We compared simulated extremes with those occurring at corresponding observing stations in the U.S. National Climate Data Center's (NCDC's) Global Summary of the Day. Our analysis focused on variations in features of the extremes such as magnitudes, spatial scales, and temporal regimes. Using composites of extreme events, we also analyzed the processes producing these extremes, comparing circulation, pressure, temperature and humidity fields from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the model output. The analysis revealed the importance of atmospheric convection in the Arctic for some extreme precipitation events and the overall importance of topographic precipitation. The analysis established the physical credibility of the simulations for extreme behavior, laying a foundation for examining projected changes in extreme precipitation. It also highlighted the utility of the model for extracting behavior that one cannot discern directly from the observations, such as summer convective precipitation.

Generalized extreme gust wind speeds distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, E.; Yeung, C.

2002-01-01

Since summer 1996, the US wind engineers are using the extreme gust (or 3-s gust) as the basic wind speed to quantify the destruction of extreme winds. In order to better understand these destructive wind forces, it is important to know the appropriate representations of these extreme gust wind speeds. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the most suitable extreme value distributions for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded in large selected areas. To achieve this objective, we are using the generalized Pareto distribution as the diagnostic tool for determining the types of extreme gust wind speed distributions. The three-parameter generalized extreme value distribution function is, thus, reduced to either Type I Gumbel, Type II Frechet or Type III reverse Weibull distribution function for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded at a specific site.With the considerations of the quality and homogeneity of gust wind data collected at more than 750 weather stations throughout the United States, annual extreme gust wind speeds at selected 143 stations in the contiguous United States were used in the study. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Symmetry enhancement of extremal horizons in D  =  5 supergravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayani, U.

2018-06-01

We consider the near-horizon geometry of supersymmetric extremal black holes in un-gauged and gauged 5-dimensional supergravity, coupled to abelian vector multiplets. By analyzing the global properties of the Killing spinors, we prove that the near-horizon geometries undergo a supersymmetry enhancement. This follows from a set of generalized Lichnerowicz-type theorems we establish, together with an index theory argument. As a consequence, these solutions always admit a symmetry group.

Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2018-04-01

We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.

Microbial diversity of extreme habitats in human homes.

PubMed

Savage, Amy M; Hills, Justin; Driscoll, Katherine; Fergus, Daniel J; Grunden, Amy M; Dunn, Robert R

2016-01-01

High-throughput sequencing techniques have opened up the world of microbial diversity to scientists, and a flurry of studies in the most remote and extreme habitats on earth have begun to elucidate the key roles of microbes in ecosystems with extreme conditions. These same environmental extremes can also be found closer to humans, even in our homes. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing techniques to assess bacterial and archaeal diversity in the extreme environments inside human homes (e.g., dishwashers, hot water heaters, washing machine bleach reservoirs, etc.). We focused on habitats in the home with extreme temperature, pH, and chemical environmental conditions. We found a lower diversity of microbes in these extreme home environments compared to less extreme habitats in the home. However, we were nonetheless able to detect sequences from a relatively diverse array of bacteria and archaea. Habitats with extreme temperatures alone appeared to be able to support a greater diversity of microbes than habitats with extreme pH or extreme chemical environments alone. Microbial diversity was lowest when habitats had both extreme temperature and one of these other extremes. In habitats with both extreme temperatures and extreme pH, taxa with known associations with extreme conditions dominated. Our findings highlight the importance of examining interactive effects of multiple environmental extremes on microbial communities. Inasmuch as taxa from extreme environments can be both beneficial and harmful to humans, our findings also suggest future work to understand both the threats and opportunities posed by the life in these habitats.

Congenital candidiasis as a subject of research in medicine and human ecology.

PubMed

Skoczylas, Michał M; Walat, Anna; Kordek, Agnieszka; Loniewska, Beata; Rudnicki, Jacek; Maleszka, Romuald; Torbé, Andrzej

2014-01-01

Congenital candidiasis is a severe complication of candidal vulvovaginitis. It occurs in two forms,congenital mucocutaneous candidiasis and congenital systemic candidiasis. Also newborns are in age group the most vulnerable to invasive candidiasis. Congenital candidiasis should be considered as an interdisciplinary problem including maternal and fetal condition (including antibiotic therapy during pregnancy), birth age and rare genetic predispositions as severe combined immunodeficiency or neutrophil-specific granule deficiency. Environmental factors are no less important to investigate in diagnosing, treatment and prevention. External factors (e.g., food) and microenvironment of human organism (microflora of the mouth, intestine and genitalia) are important for solving clinical problems connected to congenital candidiasis. Physician knowledge about microorganisms in a specific compartments of the microenvironment of human organism and in the course of defined disorders of homeostasis makes it easier to predict the course of the disease and allows the development of procedures that can be extremely helpful in individualized diagnostic and therapeutic process.

[Familial hypercalcemia and hypophosphatemia: importance in differential diagnosis of disorders in calcium-phosphate metabolism].

PubMed

Zofková, I

2010-05-01

Hypercalcemia and hypophosphatemia are symptoms of two relatively rare hereditary diseases and are extraordinarily important from the standpoint of the differential diagnosis. Mutation in calcium sensing receptor gene (CaSR) clinically manifests as familial hypocalciuric hypercalcemia (FHH) or as the much more serious neonatal hyperparathyreosis. Hypercalciuric hypocalcemia is extremely rare. Prognosis for the most frequent mutations in the CaSR gene FHH is considered benign; nevertheless, if overlooked it can lead to an incorrect diagnosis of primary hyperparathyreosis, which has a fundamentally different prognosis and treatment. Familial hypophosphatemia sometimes occurs as hereditary rickets, which is a consequence of insufficient production of vitamin D-hormone or abnormal function of vitamin D receptors (VDR). The disease manifests as X-linked dominant hypophosphatemic rickets or autosomal dominant hypophosphatemic rickets. Autosomal recessive form is very rare. Oncogenic hypophosphatemia should be excluded in differential diagnosis. In this review the issues of pathogenesis, differential diagnosis and treatment of FHH and hypophosphatemic rickets are discussed.

[THE ROLE OF ESTROGENS IN THE CARCINOGENESIS OF LUNG CANCER].

PubMed

Uchikova, E; Uchikov, A; Dimitrakova, E; Uchikov, P

2016-01-01

Morbidity and mortality from lung cancer has dramatically increased in women as compared to men over the past few years. Historically, smoking has been considered the major risk factor for lung cancer regardless of gender. Several recent lines of evidence implicate gender differences in the observed differences in prevalence and histologic type which cannot be explained based on the carcinogenic action of nicotine. Several recent studies underscore the importance of reproductive and hormonal factors in the carcinogenesis of lung cancer Lung cancer morbidity and mortality in Bulgaria was 16.2/100000 women and 14.6/ 100000 women, resp. Lung cancer morbidity in Europe was 39/100000 women. Lung cancer is extremely sensitive to estrogens. The latter act directly or as effect modifiers for the relationship between smoking and lung cancer. Further research examining the relationship between serum estrogen levels and the estrogen receptor expression in normal and tumor lung tissue samples can help elucidate the importance of reproductive and hormonal (exogenous and endogenous) factors in the carcinogenesis of lung cancer.

On the evaluation of cultural and environmental public goods, and its implications for social innovation.

PubMed

Graffeo, Michele; Bonini, Nicolao

2013-01-01

Public goods (e.g., parks) and welfare services (e.g., garbage disposal and transportation policies) are extremely important for the citizens' well-being but in the complex modern societies their influence and effectiveness are affected by the citizens' support. For this reason, it is crucial to understand which are the factors that influence the citizens' perception of the benefits, costs, and risks associated to public goods and welfare services. In this chapter, we describe some psychological variables that are relevant for the evaluation process of the public goods, but that are not considered by the standard economic models. At the same time, we show that some variables of central importance for the economic models do not significantly affect the citizens' evaluations. Finally, we discuss the concept of Nudge, a policy-making approach that suggests the use of psychological mechanisms to increase the citizens' support to public provision of welfare services. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Separating Active and Passive Influences on Stomatal Control of Transpiration[OPEN

PubMed Central

McAdam, Scott A.M.; Brodribb, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

Motivated by studies suggesting that the stomata of ferns and lycophytes do not conform to the standard active abscisic acid (ABA) -mediated stomatal control model, we examined stomatal behavior in a conifer species (Metasequoia glyptostroboides) that is phylogenetically midway between the fern and angiosperm clades. Similar to ferns, daytime stomatal closure in response to moderate water stress seemed to be a passive hydraulic process in M. glyptostroboides immediately alleviated by rehydrating excised shoots. Only after prolonged exposure to more extreme water stress did active ABA-mediated stomatal closure become important, because foliar ABA production was triggered after leaf turgor loss. The influence of foliar ABA on stomatal conductance and stomatal aperture was highly predictable and additive with the passive hydraulic influence. M. glyptostroboides thus occupies a stomatal behavior type intermediate between the passively controlled ferns and the characteristic ABA-dependent stomatal closure described in angiosperm herbs. These results highlight the importance of considering phylogeny as a major determinant of stomatal behavior. PMID:24488969

Separating active and passive influences on stomatal control of transpiration.

PubMed

McAdam, Scott A M; Brodribb, Timothy J

2014-04-01

Motivated by studies suggesting that the stomata of ferns and lycophytes do not conform to the standard active abscisic acid (ABA) -mediated stomatal control model, we examined stomatal behavior in a conifer species (Metasequoia glyptostroboides) that is phylogenetically midway between the fern and angiosperm clades. Similar to ferns, daytime stomatal closure in response to moderate water stress seemed to be a passive hydraulic process in M. glyptostroboides immediately alleviated by rehydrating excised shoots. Only after prolonged exposure to more extreme water stress did active ABA-mediated stomatal closure become important, because foliar ABA production was triggered after leaf turgor loss. The influence of foliar ABA on stomatal conductance and stomatal aperture was highly predictable and additive with the passive hydraulic influence. M. glyptostroboides thus occupies a stomatal behavior type intermediate between the passively controlled ferns and the characteristic ABA-dependent stomatal closure described in angiosperm herbs. These results highlight the importance of considering phylogeny as a major determinant of stomatal behavior.

Climate risks on potato yield in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Lall, Upmanu

2016-04-01

The yield of potatoes is affected by water and temperature during the growing season. We study the impact of a suite of climate variables on potato yield at country level. More than ten climate variables related to the growth of potato are considered, including the seasonal rainfall and temperature, but also extreme conditions at different averaging periods from daily to monthly. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to jointly consider the risk of heat stress, cold stress, wet and drought. Future climate risks are investigated through the projection of future climate data. This study contributes to assess the risks of present and future climate risks on potatoes yield, especially the risks of extreme events, which could be used to guide better sourcing strategy and ensure food security in the future.

Using Space Weather for Enhanced, Extreme Terrestrial Weather Predictions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, M. H.; Lee, T. A., III

2017-12-01

Considering the complexities of the Sun-Earth system, the impacts of space weather to weather here on Earth are not fully understood. This study attempts to analyze this interrelationship by providing a theoretical framework for studying the varied modalities of solar inclination and explores the extent to which they contribute, both in formation and intensity, to extreme terrestrial weather. Using basic topologic and ontology engineering concepts (TOEC), the transdisciplinary syntaxes of space physics, geophysics, and meteorology are analyzed as a seamless interrelated system. This paper reports this investigation's initial findings and examines the validity of the question "Does space weather contribute to extreme weather on Earth, and if so, to what degree?"

Modelling Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: The Importance of Horizontal Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shields, C. A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Meehl, G. A.

2013-12-01

Understanding Earth's water cycle on a warming planet is of critical importance in society's ability to adapt to climate change. Extreme weather events, such as floods, heat waves, and drought will likely change with the water cycle as greenhouse gases continue to rise. Location, duration, and intensity of extreme events can be studied using complex earth system models. Here, we employ the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0) to evaluate extreme event impacts for different possible future forcing scenarios. Simulations applying the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to bracket the range of model responses. Because extreme weather events happen on a regional scale, there is a tendency to favor using higher resolution models, i.e. models that can represent regional features with greater accuracy. Within the CESM1.0 framework, we evaluate both the standard 1 degree resolution (1 degree atmosphere/land coupled to 1 degree ocean/sea ice), and the higher 0.5 degree resolution version (0.5 degree atmosphere/land coupled to 1 degree ocean/sea ice), focusing on extreme precipitation events, heat waves, and droughts. We analyze a variety of geographical regions, but generally find that benefits from increased horizontal resolution are most significant on the regional scale.

Identifying and Clarifying Organizational Values.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seevers, Brenda S.

2000-01-01

Of the 14 organizational values ranked by a majority of 146 New Mexico Cooperative Extension educators as extremely valued, 9 were extremely evident in organizational policies and procedures. A values audit such as this forms an important initial step in strategic planning. (SK)

A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Caballero, Rodrigo; Faranda, Davide

2017-04-01

Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on time scales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favor extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to 1 week in advance.

Effects of extreme spring temperatures on phenology: a case study from Munich and Ingolstadt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

2010-05-01

Extreme events - e.g. warm spells or heavy precipitation events - are likely to increase in the future both in frequency and intensity. Therefore, research on extreme events gains new importance; also in terms of plant development which is mostly triggered by temperatures. An arising question is how plants respond to an extreme warm spell when following an extreme cold winter season. This situation could be studied in spring 2009 in the greater area of Munich and Ingolstadt by phenological observations of flowering and leaf unfolding of birch (Betula pendula L.) and flowering of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.). The long chilling period of winter 2008 and spring 2009 was followed by an immediate strong forcing of flowering and leaf unfolding, especially for birch. This extreme weather situation diminished the difference between urban and rural dates of onset. Another important fact that could be observed in the proceeding period of December 2008 to April 2009 was the reduced temperature difference among urban and rural sites (urban heat island effect). Long-term observations (1951-2008) of the phenological network of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) were used to identify years with reduced urban-rural differences between onset times in the greater area of Munich in the past. Statistical analyses were conducted in order to answer the question whether the sequence of extreme warm and cold events leads to a decreased difference in phenological onset times or if this behaviour can be attributed to extreme warm springs themselves or to the decreased urban heat island effect which is mostly affected by general atmospheric circulation patterns.

Abnormal Uterine Bleeding

MedlinePlus

... abnormal uterine bleeding? Abnormal uterine bleeding is any heavy or unusual bleeding from the uterus (through your ... one symptom of abnormal uterine bleeding. Having extremely heavy bleeding during your period can also be considered ...

Understanding the Impact of Extreme Temperature on Crop Production in Karnataka in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahato, S.; Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

2017-12-01

The impact of extreme temperature on crop yield is seldom explored in work around climate change impact on agriculture. Further, these studies are restricted mainly to crops such as wheat and maize. Since different agro-climatic zones bear different crops and cropping patterns, it is important to explore the nature of the impact of changes in climate variables in agricultural systems under differential conditions. The study explores the effects of temperature rise on the major crops paddy, jowar, ragi and tur in the state of Karnataka of southern India. The choice of the unit of study to understand impact of climate variability on crop yields is largely restricted to availability of data for the unit. While, previous studies have dealt with this issue by replacing yield with NDVI at finer resolution, the use of an index in place of yield data has its limitations and may not reflect the true estimates. For this study, the unit considered is taluk, i.e. sub-district level. The crop yield for taluk is obtained between the year the 1995 to 2011 by aggregating point yield data from crop cutting experiments for each year across the taluks. The long term temperature data shows significantly increasing trend that ranges between 0.6 to 0.75 C across Karnataka. Further, the analysis suggests a warming trend in seasonal average temperature for Kharif and Rabi seasons across districts. The study also found that many districts exhibit the tendency of occurrence of extreme temperature days, which is of particular concern in terms of crop yield, since exposure of crops to extreme temperature has negative consequences for crop production and productivity. Using growing degree days GDD, extreme degree days EDD and total season rainfall as predictor variables, the fixed effect model shows that EDD is a more influential parameter as compared to GDD and rainfall. Also it has a statistically significant negative effect in most cases. Further, quantile regression was used to evaluate the robustness of the estimates of EDD in relation to crop yield. This showed the estimates to be robust across quantiles for most of the crops studied. Thus indicating a strong negative influence of exposure to extreme temperature on crop yield in the region.

Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: Changing properties and causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M.

2016-12-01

Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and these will be important to further understand the possible geophysical processes linking the teleconnections of each climate index on the seasonal extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin.

Atmospheric Rivers, Climate Change, and the Howard Hanson Dam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Shaffer, K.; Brettman, K.

2017-12-01

All wintertime extreme precipitation and major flooding events in Western Washington are associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow bands of elevated integrated water vapor transport (IVT) stretching from the tropical Pacific Ocean to the Pacific Northwest coast. Several studies over the last decade have suggested that climate change could impact the intensity, frequency, timing, and structure of Pacific Northwest extreme precipitation. The Howard Hanson Dam is situated on the Green River in the central Cascade Mountains in Western Washington and is operated by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in Seattle. The reservoir behind the dam has two functions: It is the main water supply for the city of Tacoma and is filled during the summer months, and it is empty during winter months when it is used for flood risk management during AR events, protecting billions of dollars of infrastructure downstream. The reservoir is maintained by the Cascade Mountains' abundant winter snowpack and precipitation. Since the reservoir behind Howard Hanson Dam must be empty before the flood season starts and is reliant on snowpack and precipitation to fill in late spring, impacts due to climate change are important for how the USACE operates and manages flood risk and water supply in the future. This work describes changes in the structure, climatology, and seasonality of cool-season atmospheric rivers influencing the west coast of North America by examining the projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations forced by the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. There are only slight changes in AR frequency and seasonality between historical (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) periods considering the most extreme days (99th percentile) in integrated water vapor transport (IVT) along the West Coast, particularly along the southern part of the U.S. west coast, where some changes in the most extreme events are statistically significant. In contrast, using the number of future days exceeding the historical 99th percentile IVT threshold produces statistically significant increases in the frequency of extreme IVT events for all winter months. The peak in future AR days appears to occur approximately one month earlier.

Polygenic determinants in extremes of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol[S

PubMed Central

Dron, Jacqueline S.; Wang, Jian; Low-Kam, Cécile; Khetarpal, Sumeet A.; Robinson, John F.; McIntyre, Adam D.; Ban, Matthew R.; Cao, Henian; Rhainds, David; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Rader, Daniel J.; Lettre, Guillaume; Tardif, Jean-Claude

2017-01-01

HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) remains a superior biochemical predictor of CVD risk, but its genetic basis is incompletely defined. In patients with extreme HDL-C concentrations, we concurrently evaluated the contributions of multiple large- and small-effect genetic variants. In a discovery cohort of 255 unrelated lipid clinic patients with extreme HDL-C levels, we used a targeted next-generation sequencing panel to evaluate rare variants in known HDL metabolism genes, simultaneously with common variants bundled into a polygenic trait score. Two additional cohorts were used for validation and included 1,746 individuals from the Montréal Heart Institute Biobank and 1,048 individuals from the University of Pennsylvania. Findings were consistent between cohorts: we found rare heterozygous large-effect variants in 18.7% and 10.9% of low- and high-HDL-C patients, respectively. We also found common variant accumulation, indicated by extreme polygenic trait scores, in an additional 12.8% and 19.3% of overall cases of low- and high-HDL-C extremes, respectively. Thus, the genetic basis of extreme HDL-C concentrations encountered clinically is frequently polygenic, with contributions from both rare large-effect and common small-effect variants. Multiple types of genetic variants should be considered as contributing factors in patients with extreme dyslipidemia. PMID:28870971

Polygenic determinants in extremes of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

PubMed

Dron, Jacqueline S; Wang, Jian; Low-Kam, Cécile; Khetarpal, Sumeet A; Robinson, John F; McIntyre, Adam D; Ban, Matthew R; Cao, Henian; Rhainds, David; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Rader, Daniel J; Lettre, Guillaume; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Hegele, Robert A

2017-11-01

HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) remains a superior biochemical predictor of CVD risk, but its genetic basis is incompletely defined. In patients with extreme HDL-C concentrations, we concurrently evaluated the contributions of multiple large- and small-effect genetic variants. In a discovery cohort of 255 unrelated lipid clinic patients with extreme HDL-C levels, we used a targeted next-generation sequencing panel to evaluate rare variants in known HDL metabolism genes, simultaneously with common variants bundled into a polygenic trait score. Two additional cohorts were used for validation and included 1,746 individuals from the Montréal Heart Institute Biobank and 1,048 individuals from the University of Pennsylvania. Findings were consistent between cohorts: we found rare heterozygous large-effect variants in 18.7% and 10.9% of low- and high-HDL-C patients, respectively. We also found common variant accumulation, indicated by extreme polygenic trait scores, in an additional 12.8% and 19.3% of overall cases of low- and high-HDL-C extremes, respectively. Thus, the genetic basis of extreme HDL-C concentrations encountered clinically is frequently polygenic, with contributions from both rare large-effect and common small-effect variants. Multiple types of genetic variants should be considered as contributing factors in patients with extreme dyslipidemia. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Compound climate extremes are receiving increasing attention because of their disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems. Risks assessments, however, generally focus on univariate statistics even when multiple stressors are considered. Concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves have been observed to cause a suite of extreme impacts on natural and human systems alike. For example, they can substantially affect vegetation health, prompting tree mortality, and thereby facilitating insect outbreaks and fires. In addition, hot droughts have the potential to trigger and intensify fires and can cause severe economical damage. By promoting disease spread, extremely hot and dry conditions also strongly affect human health. We analyse the co-occurrence of dry and hot summers and show that these are strongly correlated for many regions, inducing a much higher frequency of concurrent hot and dry summers than what would be assumed from the independent combination of the univariate statistics. Our results demonstrate how the dependence structure between variables affects the occurrence frequency of multivariate extremes. Assessments based on univariate statistics can thus strongly underestimate risks associated with given extremes, if impacts depend on multiple (dependent) variables. We conclude that a multivariate perspective is necessary in order to appropriately assess changes in climate extremes and their impacts, and to design adaptation strategies.

Towards a Multi-scale Montecarlo Climate Emulator for Coastal Flooding and Long-Term Coastal Change Modeling: The Beautiful Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rueda, A.; Alvarez Antolinez, J. A.; Hegermiller, C.; Serafin, K.; Anderson, D. L.; Ruggiero, P.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Vitousek, S.; Camus, P.; Tomas, A.; Gonzalez, M.; Mendez, F. J.

2016-02-01

Long-term coastal evolution and coastal flooding hazards are the result of the non-linear interaction of multiple oceanographic, hydrological, geological and meteorological forcings (e.g., astronomical tide, monthly mean sea level, large-scale storm surge, dynamic wave set-up, shoreline evolution, backshore erosion). Additionally, interannual variability and trends in storminess and sea level rise are climate drivers that must be considered. Moreover, the chronology of the hydraulic boundary conditions plays an important role since a collection of consecutive minor storm events can have more impact than the 100-yr return level event. Therefore, proper modeling of shoreline erosion, beach recovery and coastal flooding should consider the sequence of storms, the multivariate nature of the hydrodynamic forcings, and the different time scales of interest (seasonality, interannual and decadal variability). To address this `beautiful problem', we propose a hybrid approach that combines: (a) numerical hydrodynamic and morphodynamic models (SWAN for wave transformation, a shoreline change model, X-Beach for modeling infragravity waves and erosion of the backshore during extreme events and RFSM-EDA (Jamieson et al, 2012) for high resolution flooding of the coastal hinterland); (b) long-term data bases (observational and hindcast) of sea state parameters, astronomical tides and non-tidal residuals; and (c) statistical downscaling techniques, non-linear data mining, and extreme value models. The statistical downscaling approaches for multivariate variables are based on circulation patterns (Espejo et al., 2014), the chronology of the circulation patterns (Guanche et al, 2013) and the event hydrographs of multivariate extremes, resulting in a time-dependent climate emulator of hydraulic boundary conditions for coupled simulations of the coastal change and flooding models. ReferencesEspejo et al (2014) Spectral ocean wave climate variability based on circulation patterns, J Phys Oc, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-13-0276.1 Guanche et al (2013) Autoregressive logistic regression applied to atmospheric circulation patterns, Clim Dyn, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1690-3 Jamieson et al (2012) A highly efficient 2D flood model with sub-element topography, Proc. Of the Inst Civil Eng., 165(10), 581-595

A stochastic storm surge generator for the German North Sea and the multivariate statistical assessment of the simulation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Jensen, Jürgen; Mudersbach, Christoph

2010-05-01

Storm surges along the German North Sea coastline led to major damages in the past and the risk of inundation is expected to increase in the course of an ongoing climate change. The knowledge of the characteristics of possible storm surges is essential for the performance of integrated risk analyses, e.g. based on the source-pathway-receptor concept. The latter includes the storm surge simulation/analyses (source), modelling of dike/dune breach scenarios (pathway) and the quantification of potential losses (receptor). In subproject 1b of the German joint research project XtremRisK (www.xtremrisk.de), a stochastic storm surge generator for the south-eastern North Sea area is developed. The input data for the multivariate model are high resolution sea level observations from tide gauges during extreme events. Based on 25 parameters (19 sea level parameters and 6 time parameters) observed storm surge hydrographs consisting of three tides are parameterised. Followed by the adaption of common parametric probability distributions and a large number of Monte-Carlo-Simulations, the final reconstruction leads to a set of 100.000 (default) synthetic storm surge events with a one-minute resolution. Such a data set can potentially serve as the basis for a large number of applications. For risk analyses, storm surges with peak water levels exceeding the design water levels are of special interest. The occurrence probabilities of the simulated extreme events are estimated based on multivariate statistics, considering the parameters "peak water level" and "fullness/intensity". In the past, most studies considered only the peak water levels during extreme events, which might not be the most important parameter in any cases. Here, a 2D-Archimedian copula model is used for the estimation of the joint probabilities of the selected parameters, accounting for the structures of dependence overlooking the margins. In coordination with subproject 1a, the results will be used as the input for the XtremRisK subprojects 2 to 4. The project is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Project No. 03 F 0483 B).

The hydrometeorological implications of zoning laws: Can land use regulations of urban density and sprawl improve a city's resilience?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bou-Zeid, E.; Ryu, Y. H.; Smith, J. A.; Newburn, D. A.

2015-12-01

The intensification of heat waves and of the hydrological cycle due to global climate change pose particularly high risks to urban residents. Cities are already hotter than their surroundings due to the urban heat island effect and are known to result in local intensification of rainfall and flooding due to their coupled impacts on the surface and the lower atmosphere. These interacting local and global changes can adversely affect the health and well being of urban residents, and city administrators are increasing efforts to mitigate and adapt to the potential disruptions though various infrastructure and preparedness programs. However, as cities worldwide continue to expand, a key decision is how to manage that urban sprawl and regulate its spatial features to aid in the mitigation and adaptation effort. This study assesses whether alternative zoning regulations that modify the density and extent of a metropolitan region, but have a minimal impact on total population and demographic growth, have an appreciable impact on its response to extreme weather events, and as such, whether they can be used to increase urban resilience. We consider Baltimore (the city and its surrounding suburbs), which in 1967 adopted one of the first urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in the United States, as our test case. Departing from the urban extent circa 1900, we create alternative land use patterns that, compared to the actual current land use baseline, would have resulted from drastically different policy scenarios and approaches to zoning that the city would have undertaken. We consider various alternatives where the city is smaller and denser, due to stricter regulation, versus larger and less dense than the actual baseline, while maintaining the same total population. Our findings indicate that lower densities have significant benefits: compared to the current landscape and to denser patterns, they reduce both extreme temperatures during heat waves and spatio-temporal rainfall peaks. While the particular findings hold for Baltimore and many cities with comparable climates, the conclusion that zoning laws and the resulting spatial patterns for urban density have important implications on a city's response to changing climate and extreme weather are more broadly applicable.

A comparison of two global datasets of extreme sea levels and resulting flood exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Ward, Philip J.

2017-04-01

Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6 m. With a mean bias of -0.2 m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea-level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure.

The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meresa, Hadush K.; Romanowicz, Renata J.

2017-08-01

This paper aims to quantify the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the Biala Tarnowska River at Koszyce gauging station, south Poland. The approach followed is based on several climate projections obtained from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, raw and bias-corrected realizations of catchment precipitation, and flow simulations derived using multiple hydrological model parameter sets. The projections cover the 21st century. Three sources of uncertainty are considered: one related to climate projection ensemble spread, the second related to the uncertainty in hydrological model parameters and the third related to the error in fitting theoretical distribution models to annual extreme flow series. The uncertainty of projected extreme indices related to hydrological model parameters was conditioned on flow observations from the reference period using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach, with separate criteria for high- and low-flow extremes. Extreme (low and high) flow quantiles were estimated using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution at different return periods and were based on two different lengths of the flow time series. A sensitivity analysis based on the analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model parameters can be larger than the climate model variability and the distribution fit uncertainty for the low-flow extremes whilst for the high-flow extremes higher uncertainty is observed from climate models than from hydrological parameter and distribution fit uncertainties. This implies that ignoring one of the three uncertainty sources may cause great risk to future hydrological extreme adaptations and water resource planning and management.

Acclimatization to extreme heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

2017-12-01

Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

Spatio-temporal variations in storm surges along the North Atlantic coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcos, Marta; Woodworth, Philip

2017-04-01

Extreme sea levels along the coasts of the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have been investigated using hourly tide gauge records compiled in the recently released GESLA-2 data set (www.gesla.org). These regions are among the most densely monitored coasts worldwide, with more than 300 high frequency quality-controlled tide gauge time series available. Here we estimate the storm surge component of extreme sea levels using both tidal residuals and skew surges, for which we explore the spatial and temporal coherency of their intensities, duration and frequency. We quantify the relationship of extremes with dominant large scale climate patterns and discuss the impact of mean sea level changes. Finally, we test the assumption of stationarity of the probability of extreme occurrence and to which extent it holds when mean sea level changes are considered in combination with storm surges.

Conditional probability of rainfall extremes across multiple durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2017-04-01

The conditional probability that extreme rainfall will occur at one location given that it is occurring at another location is critical in engineering design and management circumstances including planning of evacuation routes and the sitting of emergency infrastructure. A challenge with this conditional simulation is that in many situations the interest is not so much the conditional distributions of rainfall of the same duration at two locations, but rather the conditional distribution of flooding in two neighbouring catchments, which may be influenced by rainfall of different critical durations. To deal with this challenge, a model that can consider both spatial and duration dependence of extremes is required. The aim of this research is to develop a model that can take account both spatial dependence and duration dependence into the dependence structure of extreme rainfalls. To achieve this aim, this study is a first attempt at combining extreme rainfall for multiple durations within a spatial extreme model framework based on max-stable process theory. Max-stable processes provide a general framework for modelling multivariate extremes with spatial dependence for just a single duration extreme rainfall. To achieve dependence across multiple timescales, this study proposes a new approach that includes addition elements representing duration dependence of extremes to the covariance matrix of max-stable model. To improve the efficiency of calculation, a re-parameterization proposed by Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998) is used to reduce the number of parameters necessary to be estimated. This re-parameterization enables the GEV parameters to be represented as a function of timescale. A stepwise framework has been adopted to achieve the overall aims of this research. Firstly, the re-parameterization is used to define a new set of common parameters for marginal distribution across multiple durations. Secondly, spatial interpolation of the new parameter set is used to estimate marginal parameters across the full spatial domain. Finally, spatial interpolation result is used as initial condition to estimate dependence parameters via a likelihood function of max-stable model for multiple durations. The Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment near Sydney in Australia was selected as case study for this research. This catchment has 25 sub-daily rain gauges with the minimum record length of 24 years over a region of 300 km × 300 km area. The re-parameterization was applied for each station for durations from 1 hour to 24 hours and then is evaluated by comparing with the at-site fitted GEV. The evaluation showed that the average R2 for all station is around 0.80 with the range from 0.26 to 1.0. The output of re-parameterization then was used to construct the spatial surface based on covariates including longitude, latitude, and elevation. The dependence model showed good agreements between empirical extremal coefficient and theoretical extremal coefficient for multiple durations. For the overall model, a leave-one-out cross-validation for all stations showed it works well for 20 out of 25 stations. The potential application of this model framework was illustrated through a conditional map of return period and return level across multiple durations, both of which are important for engineering design and management.

Recovery of phosphorus compounds from thermally-processed wastes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czechowska-Kosacka, A.; Pawłowski, L.; Niedbala, G.; Cel, W.

2018-05-01

Depletion of phosphorus deposits is one of the most serious global problems, which may soon lead to a crisis in food production. It is estimated that if the current living standard is maintained, the available reserves will be depleted in 130 years. Considering the principle of sustainable development, searching for alternative phosphorus sources is extremely important. The work presented the results of the research on the possibility of utilizing wastes as a source of phosphorus. The studies were conducted on poultry manure. The physicochemical properties of phosporus-rich wastes were determined as well. The fertilizing properties of ashes from poultry manure combustion – obtained from different systems, i.e. caged and barn production. The assimilability of phosphorus from the obtained ashes was determined. Potential applications of phosphorus-rich ashes were proposed as well.

A Rare Case of Phyllodes Tumor Metastasis to the Stomach Presenting as Anemia.

PubMed

Choi, Do Il; Chi, Ho Seok; Lee, Sang Ho; Kwon, Youngmee; Park, Seog Yun; Sim, Sung Hoon; Park, In Hae; Lee, Keun Seok

2017-07-01

Metastasis of a phyllodes tumor to the stomach is an extremely rare condition with important clinical implications. A 44-year-old woman was initially diagnosed with a phyllodes tumor in her right breast in 2008, and subsequently presented to an outpatient clinic with dizziness on December 16, 2013. We found that she had severe anemia (hemoglobin levels, 6.7 g/dL), and we quickly performed esophagogastroduodenoscopy to identify the cause. This procedure revealed large ulcerofungating masses with active bleeding in the stomach. Histopathological examination revealed that the masses were consistent with phyllodes tumor metastases. In patients with a metastatic phyllodes tumor presenting as anemia, gastric metastasis should be considered as one of the differential diagnoses because overlooking the possibility might have dire consequences if cytotoxic chemotherapy were administered.

Bilateral atraumatic medial meniscal tears in a 17-year-old rower

PubMed Central

Taylor, Taryn Lise; Frankovich, Renata; Rumball, Jane

2009-01-01

Meniscal injury produces disability in a large portion of the population, and sports injuries are a common cause. Atraumatic meniscal tears may occur after repetitive low-energy loading. Rowing is a highly technical sport and very demanding on an athlete’s body. There are numerous reports on patellofemoral and iliotibial band friction syndrome in rowers but there is an extremely low incidence of meniscal tears reported in these athletes. This is a unique case report of a young adolescent athlete who suffered bilateral medical meniscal tears during sporting activity. Rowing is a low impact sport making this an unusual occurrence, especially in a young individual. This case report highlights the importance of considering all training activities when trying to isolate the mechanism of injury in an athlete. PMID:21686387

Oral dirofilariasis.

PubMed

Janardhanan, Mahija; Rakesh, S; Savithri, Vindhya

2014-01-01

Filariasis affecting animals can rarely cause infections in human beings through the accidental bite of potential vectors. The resulting infection in man, known as zoonotic filariasis occur worldwide. Human dirofilariasis, the most common zoonotic filariasis, is caused by the filarial worm belonging to the genus Dirofilaria. Dirofilarial worms, which are recognized as pathogenic in man can cause nodular lesions in the lung, subcutaneous tissue, peritoneal cavity or eyes. Oral dirofilariasis is extremely rare and only a few cases have been documented. We report an interesting case of dirofilariasis due to Dirofilaria repens involving buccal mucosa in a patient who presented with a facial swelling. The clinical features, diagnostic issues and treatment aspects are discussed. This paper stresses the importance of considering dirofilariasis as differential diagnosis for subcutaneous swelling of the face, especially in areas where it is endemic.

Significance of vapor phase chemical reactions on CVD rates predicted by chemically frozen and local thermochemical equilibrium boundary layer theories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gokoglu, Suleyman A.

1988-01-01

This paper investigates the role played by vapor-phase chemical reactions on CVD rates by comparing the results of two extreme theories developed to predict CVD mass transport rates in the absence of interfacial kinetic barrier: one based on chemically frozen boundary layer and the other based on local thermochemical equilibrium. Both theories consider laminar convective-diffusion boundary layers at high Reynolds numbers and include thermal (Soret) diffusion and variable property effects. As an example, Na2SO4 deposition was studied. It was found that gas phase reactions have no important role on Na2SO4 deposition rates and on the predictions of the theories. The implications of the predictions of the two theories to other CVD systems are discussed.

Catalogue of extreme wave events in Ireland: revised and updated for 14 680 BP to 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Laura; Renzi, Emiliano; Dudley, John M.; Clancy, Colm; Dias, Frédéric

2018-03-01

This paper aims to extend and update the survey of extreme wave events in Ireland that was previously carried out by O'Brien et al. (2013). The original catalogue highlighted the frequency of such events dating back as far as the turn of the last ice age and as recent as 2012. Ireland's marine territory extends far beyond its coastline and is one of the largest seabed territories in Europe. It is therefore not surprising that extreme waves have continued to occur regularly since 2012, particularly considering the severity of weather during the winters of 2013-2014 and 2015-2016. In addition, a large number of storm surges have been identified since the publication of the original catalogue. This paper updates the O'Brien et al. (2013) catalogue to include events up to the end of 2017. Storm surges are included as a new category and events are categorised into long waves (tsunamis and storm surges) and short waves (storm and rogue waves). New results prior to 2012 are also included and some of the events previously documented are reclassified. Important questions regarding public safety, services and the influence of climate change are also highlighted. An interactive map has been created to allow the reader to navigate through events: https://drive.google.com/open?id=19cZ59pDHfDnXKYIziYAVWV6AfoE&usp=sharing.

Explicit Computations of Instantons and Large Deviations in Beta-Plane Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurie, J.; Bouchet, F.; Zaboronski, O.

2012-12-01

We use a path integral formalism and instanton theory in order to make explicit analytical predictions about large deviations and rare events in beta-plane turbulence. The path integral formalism is a concise way to get large deviation results in dynamical systems forced by random noise. In the most simple cases, it leads to the same results as the Freidlin-Wentzell theory, but it has a wider range of applicability. This approach is however usually extremely limited, due to the complexity of the theoretical problems. As a consequence it provides explicit results in a fairly limited number of models, often extremely simple ones with only a few degrees of freedom. Few exception exist outside the realm of equilibrium statistical physics. We will show that the barotropic model of beta-plane turbulence is one of these non-equilibrium exceptions. We describe sets of explicit solutions to the instanton equation, and precise derivations of the action functional (or large deviation rate function). The reason why such exact computations are possible is related to the existence of hidden symmetries and conservation laws for the instanton dynamics. We outline several applications of this apporach. For instance, we compute explicitly the very low probability to observe flows with an energy much larger or smaller than the typical one. Moreover, we consider regimes for which the system has multiple attractors (corresponding to different numbers of alternating jets), and discuss the computation of transition probabilities between two such attractors. These extremely rare events are of the utmost importance as the dynamics undergo qualitative macroscopic changes during such transitions.

Analysis of muscle activation in lower extremity for static balance.

PubMed

Chakravarty, Kingshuk; Chatterjee, Debatri; Das, Rajat Kumar; Tripathy, Soumya Ranjan; Sinha, Aniruddha

2017-07-01

Balance plays an important role for human bipedal locomotion. Degeneration of balance control is prominent in stroke patients, elderly adults and even for majority of obese people. Design of personalized balance training program, in order to strengthen muscles, requires the analysis of muscle activation during an activity. In this paper we have proposed an affordable and portable approach to analyze the relationship between the static balance strategy and activation of various lower extremity muscles. To do that we have considered Microsoft Kinect XBox 360 as a motion sensing device and Wii balance board for measuring external force information. For analyzing the muscle activation pattern related to static balance, participants are asked to do the single limb stance (SLS) exercise on the balance board and in front of the Kinect. Static optimization to minimize the overall muscle activation pattern is carried out using OpenSim, which is an open-source musculoskeletal simulation software. The study is done on ten normal and ten obese people, grouped according to body mass index (BMI). Results suggest that the lower extremity muscles like biceps femoris, psoas major, sartorius, iliacus play the major role for both maintaining the balance using one limb as well as maintaining the flexion of the other limb during SLS. Further investigations reveal that the higher muscle activations of the flexed leg for normal group demonstrate higher strength. Moreover, the lower muscle activation of the standing leg for normal group demonstrate more headroom for the biceps femoris-short-head and psoas major to withstand the load and hence have better static balance control.

Importance of whole-body imaging with complete coverage of hands and feet in alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma staging.

PubMed

Scheer, Monika; Dantonello, Tobias; Brossart, Peter; Dilloo, Dagmar; Schweigerer, Lothar; Feuchtgruber, Simone; Sparber-Sauer, Monika; Vokuhl, Christian; Bielack, Stefan S; Klingebiel, Thomas; Koscielniak, Ewa; von Kalle, Thekla

2018-05-01

Alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma commonly arises in the extremities and is characterized by aggressive biology and high frequency of metastases. Whole-body imaging is increasingly employed in pediatric oncology but not recommended as standard in the staging of soft-tissue sarcomas. After observing patients with a large symptomatic alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma lesion and a smaller silent lesion in the more distal part of an extremity we sought to estimate the frequency of this constellation. We retrospectively evaluated the data of prospectively registered paediatric patients (age <21 years) with alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma in the SoTiSaR (Soft Tissue Sarcoma Registry) of the Cooperative Weichteilsarkom Studiengruppe (CWS) 09/2011-04/2015 with regard to whole-body imaging. Seventy-five patients were eligible. Images of 57 patients had been submitted for reference consultation, including 80 whole-body examinations in 36 patients. Among them were 5 patients (14%, 95% confidence interval 3-25%) who had been diagnosed because of a symptomatic lesion while an additional silent lesion in the distal part of an extremity had remained unnoticed and had only been detected by later whole-body imaging. It is noteworthy that in 42 (53%) of all 80 whole-body examinations, the hands and feet had been only partially covered or completely excluded. In alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma silent lesions can be overlooked when the distal parts of the limbs are not thoroughly examined and not completely covered by imaging. Missing them influences treatment decisions and prognosis. Our results should be considered when evaluating the potential role of whole-body imaging in rhabdomyosarcoma.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

Complicated Lower Extremity Wound Caused by Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura Leading to Hypercoagulable State: A Team Approach for Limb Salvage

PubMed Central

Simman, Richard; Haluschak, John; Jackson, Sarah

2010-01-01

This article describes a complicated lower extremity wound due to hypercoagulable state caused by immune thrombocytopenic purpura. A team approach was important to limb salvage. A literature review is included. PMID:24527141

A global analysis of the asymmetric effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Renard, Benjamin; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth; Lang, Michel

2015-11-01

The global and regional influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on extreme precipitation was analyzed using a global database comprising over 7000 high quality observation sites. To better quantify possible changes in relatively rare design-relevant precipitation quantiles (e.g. the 1 in 10 year event), a Bayesian regional extreme value model was used, which employed the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - a measure of ENSO - as a covariate. Regions found to be influenced by ENSO include parts of North and South America, southern and eastern Asia, South Africa, Australia and Europe. The season experiencing the greatest ENSO effect varies regionally, but in most of the ENSO-affected regions the strongest effect happens in boreal winter, during which time the 10-year precipitation for |SOI| = 20 (corresponding to either a strong El Niño or La Niña episode) can be up to 50% higher or lower than for SOI = 0 (a neutral phase). Importantly, the effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation is asymmetric, with most parts of the world experiencing a significant effect only for a single ENSO phase. This finding has important implications on the current understanding of how ENSO influences extreme precipitation, and will enable a more rigorous theoretical foundation for providing quantitative extreme precipitation intensity predictions at seasonal timescales. We anticipate that incorporating asymmetric impacts of ENSO on extreme precipitation will help lead to better-informed climate-adaptive design of flood-sensitive infrastructure.

Temperature extremes in Alaska: temporal variability and circulation background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulikowska, Agnieszka; Walawender, Jakub P.; Walawender, Ewelina

2018-06-01

The aims of this study are to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of extremely warm days (WDs) and warm spells (WSs) in summer as well as extremely cold days (CDs) and cold spells (CSs) in winter in Alaska in the years 1951-2015 and to determine the role of atmospheric circulation in their occurrence. The analysis is performed using daily temperature maxima (T MAX) and minima (T MIN) measured at 10 weather stations in Alaska as well as mean daily values of sea level pressure and wind direction at the 850 hPa isobaric level. WD (CD) is defined as a day with T MAX above the 95th (T MIN below the 5th) percentile of a probability density function calculated from observations, and WS (CS) equals at least three consecutive WDs (CDs). Frequency of the occurrence and severity of warm and cold extremes as well as duration of WSs and CSs is analyzed. In order to characterize synoptic conditions during temperature extremes, the objective classification scheme of advection types considering jointly the direction of the air influx and type of pressure system is employed. The results show that the general trend is towards the warmer temperatures, and the warming is greater in the winter than summer and for T MAX as opposed to T MIN. This is reflected in changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of temperature extremes which are much more pronounced in the case of winter cold extremes (decreasing tendencies) than summer warm extremes (increasing tendencies). The occurrence of temperature extremes is generally favored by anticyclonic weather with advection direction indicating air mass flows from the interior of the North American continent as well as the south (warm extremes in summer) and north (cold extremes in winter).

Extremely Fast Numerical Integration of Ocean Surface Wave Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

sub-processor must be added as shown in the blue box of Fig. 1. We first consider the Kadomtsev - Petviashvili (KP) equation ηt + coηx +αηηx + βη ...analytic integration of the so-called “soliton equations ,” I have discovered how the GFT can be used to solved higher order equations for which study...analytical study and extremely fast numerical integration of the extended nonlinear Schroedinger equation for fully three dimensional wave motion

The Support of Air Operations Under Extreme Hot and Cold Weather Conditions (Les Operatons Aeriennes en Environnement Extreme Chaud/Froid)

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-10-01

particular subject’s water turnover data could be considered triglyceride , high density lipoprotein ( HDL ), low density an outlier (20). Ali results are... Cholesterol and triglycerides values tended to decrease pre- retrospectively distinguish the bars enough to accurately rate to post-study. Further...there was an increase in the HDL them individually. However, the field data show that even fraction and a decrease in the LDL fraction of cholesterol

The architecture of adaptive neural network based on a fuzzy inference system for implementing intelligent control in photovoltaic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimazov, R.; Shidlovskiy, S.

2018-05-01

In this paper, we consider the architecture of the algorithm for extreme regulation in the photovoltaic system. An algorithm based on an adaptive neural network with fuzzy inference is proposed. The implementation of such an algorithm not only allows solving a number of problems in existing algorithms for extreme power regulation of photovoltaic systems, but also creates a reserve for the creation of a universal control system for a photovoltaic system.

Crossed asymmetry in Russell-Silver syndrome.

PubMed Central

Qazi, Q H; Kassner, E G; Ganapathy, C

1977-01-01

Since the initial report by Silver et al (1953), more than 50 examples of the Russell-Silver syndrome have been reported. Unilateral congenital asymmetry of the extremities has been considered one of the major features of this disorder (Silver, 1964). We recently observed a child with otherwise typical features of the Russell-Silver syndrome who had enlargement of the right hand and of the left lower extremity. We know of no other recorded example of crossed asymmetry in this clinical entity. Images PMID:839508

Tornado risks and design windspeeds for the Oak Ridge Plant Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1975-08-01

The effects of tornadoes and other extreme winds should be considered in establishing design criteria for structures to resist wind loads. Design standards that are incorporated in building codes do not normally include the effects of tornadoes in their wind load criteria. Some tornado risk models ignore the presence of nontornadic extreme winds. The purpose of this study is to determine the probability of tornadic and straight winds exceeding a threshold value in the geographical region surrounding the Oak Ridge, Tennessee plant site.

Changes in intensity of precipitation extremes in Romania on very hight temporal scale and implications on the validity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busuioc, Aristita; Baciu, Madalina; Breza, Traian; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Stoica, Cerasela; Baghina, Nina

2016-04-01

Many observational, theoretical and based on climate model simulation studies suggested that warmer climates lead to more intense precipitation events, even when the total annual precipitation is slightly reduced. In this way, it was suggested that extreme precipitation events may increase at Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate under global warming and constraint of constant relative humidity. However, recent studies show that the relationship between extreme rainfall intensity and atmospheric temperature is much more complex than would be suggested by the CC relationship and is mainly dependent on precipitation temporal resolution, region, storm type and whether the analysis is conducted on storm events rather than fixed data. The present study presents the dependence between the very hight temporal scale extreme rainfall intensity and daily temperatures, with respect to the verification of the CC relation. To solve this objective, the analysis is conducted on rainfall event rather than fixed interval using the rainfall data based on graphic records including intensities (mm/min.) calculated over each interval with permanent intensity per minute. The annual interval with available a such data (April to October) is considered at 5 stations over the interval 1950-2007. For Bucuresti-Filaret station the analysis is extended over the longer interval (1898-2007). For each rainfall event, the maximum intensity (mm/min.) is retained and these time series are considered for the further analysis (abbreviated in the following as IMAX). The IMAX data were divided based on the daily mean temperature into bins 2oC - wide. The bins with less than 100 values were excluded. The 90th, 99th and 99.9th percentiles were computed from the binned data using the empirical distribution and their variability has been compared to the CC scaling (e.g. exponential relation given by a 7% increase per temperature degree rise). The results show a dependence close to double the CC relation for temperatures less than ~ 220C and negative scaling rates for higher temperatures. This behaviour is similar for all the 5 analysed stations over the common interval 1950-2007. This scaling is more exactly for the 90th percentile, while for the higher percentiles the rainfall intensity in response to warming exceeds sometimes the CC rate. For Bucuresti-Filaret station, the results are similar over a longer interval (1898-2007) showing that these findings are robust. Similar techniques has been previously applied to the hourly rainfall intensities recorded at 9 stations (including the 5 ones) and the results are slightly different: the 90th percentile shows dependence close to the CC relation for all temperatures; the 99th and 99.9th percentiles exhibit rates close to double the CC rate for temperatures between ~ 100C and ~ 220C and negative scaling rates for higher temperatures. In conclusion, these results show that the dependence between the extreme precipitation intensity and atmospheric temperature in Romania is mainly dependent on the temporal precipitation resolution and the degree of the extreme precipitation event (moderate or stronger); these findings are mainly in agreenment with the conclusions presented by previous international studies (mentioned above), with some regional specific features, showing the importance of the regional studies. The results presented is this study were funded by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) through the research project CLIMHYDEX, "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania", code PNII-ID-2011-2-0073 (http://climhydex.meteoromania.ro).

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Moving in extreme environments: what's extreme and who decides?

PubMed

Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

2014-01-01

Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term 'extreme' typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals' behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteoporosis) may be as important but much less discernable. Modern societies have increasingly sought to protect people from such stressors and, in that way, minimise their adverse effects. Regulations are thus established, and advice is provided on what is 'acceptable' exposure. Examples include work/rest cycles in the heat, hydration regimes, rates of ascent to and duration of stay at altitude and diving depth. While usually valuable and well intentioned, it is important to realise the breadth and importance of limitations associated with such guidelines. Regulations and advisories leave less room for self-determination, learning and perhaps adaptation. Regulations based on stress (e.g. work/rest cycles relative to WBGT) are more practical but less direct than those based on strain (e.g. core temperature), but even the latter can be substantively limited (e.g. by lack of criterion validation and allowance for behavioural regulation in the research on which they are based). Extreme Physiology & Medicine is publishing a series of reviews aimed at critically examining the issues involved with self- versus regulation-controlled human movement acutely and chronically in extreme environments. These papers, arising from a research symposium in 2013, are about the impact of people engaging in such environments and the effect of rules and guidelines on their safety, enjoyment, autonomy and productivity. The reviews will cover occupational heat stress, sporting heat stress, hydration, diving, extreme loading, chronic unloading and high altitude. Ramifications include factors such as health and safety, productivity, enjoyment and autonomy, acute and chronic protection and optimising adaptation.

Minimum important differences for the patient-specific functional scale, 4 region-specific outcome measures, and the numeric pain rating scale.

PubMed

Abbott, J Haxby; Schmitt, John

2014-08-01

Multicenter, prospective, longitudinal cohort study. To investigate the minimum important difference (MID) of the Patient-Specific Functional Scale (PSFS), 4 region-specific outcome measures, and the numeric pain rating scale (NPRS) across 3 levels of patient-perceived global rating of change in a clinical setting. The MID varies depending on the external anchor defining patient-perceived "importance." The MID for the PSFS has not been established across all body regions. One thousand seven hundred eight consecutive patients with musculoskeletal disorders were recruited from 5 physical therapy clinics. The PSFS, NPRS, and 4 region-specific outcome measures-the Oswestry Disability Index, Neck Disability Index, Upper Extremity Functional Index, and Lower Extremity Functional Scale-were assessed at the initial and final physical therapy visits. Global rating of change was assessed at the final visit. MID was calculated for the PSFS and NPRS (overall and for each body region), and for each region-specific outcome measure, across 3 levels of change defined by the global rating of change (small, medium, large change) using receiver operating characteristic curve methodology. The MID for the PSFS (on a scale from 0 to 10) ranged from 1.3 (small change) to 2.3 (medium change) to 2.7 (large change), and was relatively stable across body regions. MIDs for the NPRS (-1.5 to -3.5), Oswestry Disability Index (-12), Neck Disability Index (-14), Upper Extremity Functional Index (6 to 11), and Lower Extremity Functional Scale (9 to 16) are also reported. We reported the MID for small, medium, and large patient-perceived change on the PSFS, NPRS, Oswestry Disability Index, Neck Disability Index, Upper Extremity Functional Index, and Lower Extremity Functional Scale for use in clinical practice and research.

Nutrition security under extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, A.

2017-12-01

Nutrition security under extreme events. Zero hunger being one of the Sustainable Development Goal from the United Nations, food security has become a trending research topic. However extreme events impact on global food security is not yet 100% understood and there is a lack of comprehension of the underlying mechanisms of global food trade and nutrition security to improve countries resilience to extreme events. In a globalized world, food is still a highly regulated commodity and a strategic resource. A drought happening in a net food-exporter will have little to no effect on its own population but the repercussion on net food-importers can be extreme. In this project, we propose a methodology to describe and quantify the impact of a local drought to human health at a global scale. For this purpose, nutrition supply and global trade data from FAOSTAT have been used with domestic food production from national agencies and FAOSTAT, global precipitation from the Climate Research Unit and health data from the World Health Organization. A modified Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) has been developed to measure the level of resilience of one country to a drought happening in another country. This index describes how a country is dependent of importation and how diverse are its importation. Losses of production and exportation due to extreme events have been calculated using yield data and a simple food balance at country scale. Results show that countries the most affected by global droughts are the one with the highest dependency to one exporting country. Changes induced by droughts also disturbed their domestic proteins, fat and calories supply resulting most of the time in a higher intake of calories or fat over proteins.

Ongoing change of site conditions important for sustainable forest management planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidló, András; Horváth, Adrienn; Gulyás, Krisztina; Gálos, Borbála

2016-04-01

Observed tree mortality of the last decades has shown that the vulnerable forest ecosystems are especially affected by the recurrent, long lasting droughts, heat waves and their consequences. From all site conditions climate is changing the fastest, in this way it can be the largest threatening factor in the 21st century. Beyond climate, soil characteristics are playing an important influencing role. Until now, silvicultural technologies and species preferences of many countries are prescribed by binding regulation based on climate conditions that are assumed to be constant over time. Therefore the aim of our research was to investigate the ongoing and projected change of site conditions that are considered to be of primary importance in terms of tree species selection. For a case study region in Hungary (Keszthely Mountains, near to Lake Balaton) long-term climate tendencies have been determined for the period 1961-2100, as well as a detailed soil sample analysis has been carried out including ~100 sites. Results show a 0.5 degree increase of temperature and a 6-7 % decrease of the precipitation amount for the summer months in the last decades. For the future, significant warming and drying of summers is expected. Decrease of the summer precipitation sum can exceed 25 % until the end of the century, probability of extreme hot days may increase. These tendencies together with the unfavourable soil conditions and biotic damages can be the reason of the ongoing forest dieback. One of the characteristic soil type of the region is rendzina with a thin topsoil layer and an unfavourable water holding capacity. These properties are limiting the amount of available water for plants, especially in case of intense precipitation events. Black pine stands planted on rendzinas after many years of grazing; therefore erosion may have played a significant role. Not only microclimate conditions but also soil types show a large diversity within a relatively small distance. However, tree mortality has been observed also in stands on favourable soils (rusty brown forest soil, brown earth, lessivated brown forest soil) because these soil sites can only mitigate the damage of extremes. Consequently, there is ongoing change of site conditions that are important for the sustainable forest management planning. Therefore it is an urgent need to rethink regulations considering the changing climate and soil conditions in order to decide about sustainable tree species preference and to maintain forest cover. Keywords: climate change impacts, forest mortality, adaptation, sustainable forest management planning Acknowledgements: Research is supported by the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded research project.

A comprehensive scoring system to evaluate patient-centred risk factors regarding lower extremity amputation.

PubMed

Miller, M S; Newgent, E W; O'Connell, S M; Broadus, C

2017-10-01

Care of the patient with a presumed life- or limb-threatening lower extremity wound poses many challenges. The mindset regarding potential outcomes of such conditions is mostly driven by the experiences and expertise of those providing the care. This mindset generally appears as two primary actions presented to the afflicted patient: attempted resolution of the problem via medical, surgical or combination treatment, with the hope of low recurrence risk, or exacerbation and amputation-amputations at a level sufficient to, at least in the mind of the surgeon, eliminate the problem. Achieving the former outcome is dependent on a number of factors associated with both patient and caregiver. If healing is achieved, the secondary goal of prevention of recurrence may be no less arduous, with failure most likely resulting in amputation. Clearly, these considerations appear to be based more on the health professionals perception, of the patient's physical and medical status rather than on patient-centred considerations. This article will review considerations and recommendations for lower extremity amputation, and the short- and long-term implications. Based on our research, there is clear need for a set of criteria against which to weigh not just the medical issues, but also definitive patient-centred issues when considering a lower extremity amputation. We offer a set of patient-centred, easily verified and recognised criteria that we believe addresses this need. The goal of the Miller-Newgent Amputation Scale (MENACE) is to provide a decision base from which to consider and evaluate all factors in determining the need for a lower extremity amputation. This involves identification of patient-centred issues, which are likely to produce satisfactory short- and long-term physical and quality-of-life outcomes if the amputation does proceed.

Shoe and Field Surface Risk Factors for Acute Lower Extremity Injuries Among Female Youth Soccer Players.

PubMed

OʼKane, John W; Gray, Kristen E; Levy, Marni R; Neradilek, Moni; Tencer, Allan F; Polissar, Nayak L; Schiff, Melissa A

2016-05-01

To describe acute lower extremity injuries and evaluate extrinsic risk factors in female youth soccer. Nested case-control study. Youth soccer clubs in Seattle, WA. Female soccer players (n = 351) ages 11 to 15 years randomly selected from 4 soccer clubs from which 83% of their players were enrolled with complete follow-up for 92% of players. Injured players were interviewed regarding injury, field surface, shoe type, and position. Uninjured controls, matched on game or practice session, were also interviewed. The association between risk factors and acute lower extremity injury using logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). One hundred seventy-three acute lower extremity injuries occurred involving primarily the ankle (39.3%), knee (24.9%), and thigh (11.0%). Over half (52.9%) recovered within 1 week, whereas 30.2% lasted beyond 2 weeks. During practices, those injured were approximately 3-fold (OR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.49-5.31) more likely to play on grass than artificial turf and 2.4-fold (95% CI, 1.03-5.96) more likely to wear cleats on grass than other shoe and surface combinations. During games, injured players were 89% (95% CI, 1.03-4.17) more likely to play defender compared with forward. Half of the acute lower extremity injuries affected the ankle or knee. Grass surface and wearing cleats on grass increased training injuries. The majority, 64%, of female youth soccer players' acute injuries involve the ankle and knee and injury prevention strategies in this age group should target these areas. When considering playing surfaces for training, communities and soccer organizations should consider the third-generation artificial turf a safe alternative to grass.

Climate services for an urban area (Baia Mare City, Romania) with a focus on climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Dana; Dragota, Carmen-Sofia; Mihalache, Sorin

2013-04-01

The Baia Mare Urban System is located in the north-western part of Romania, with around 200,000 inhabitants and represents one of the most important former mining areas in the country, whose socioeconomic profile and environmental conditions have greatly changed over the last 20 years during the transition and post-transition period. Currently the mining is closed in the area, but the historical legacy of this activity has implications in terms of economic growth, social and cultural developments and environmental quality. Baia Mare city lies in an extended depression, particularly sheltered by the mountain and hilly regions located in the north and respectively, in the south-south-eastern part of it, which explains the high frequency of calm conditions and low airstream channeling occurrences. This urban system has a typically moderate temperate-continental climate, subject to frequent westerly airflows (moist), which moderate the thermal regime (without depicting severe extremes, both positive and negative) and enhance the precipitation one (entailing a greater frequency of wet extremes). During the reference period (1971-2000), the climate change signal in the area is rather weak and not statistically significant. However, since the mid 1980s, the warming signal became more evident from the observational data (Baia Mare station), showing a higher frequency of dry spells and positive extremes. The modelling experiments covering the 2021-2050 time horizon using regional (RM5.1/HadRM3Q0/RCA3) and global (ARPEGE/HadCM3Q0/BCM/ECHAM5) circulation models carried out within the ECLISE FP7 project suggest an ongoing temperature rise, associated to an intensification of temperature and precipitation extremes. In this context, the aim of this study was to evaluate how the local authorities consider and include climate change in their activity, as well as in the development plans (e.g. territorial, economic and social development plans). Individual interviews have been undertaken with key institutions focusing on environmental, health and urban development issues. The survey was conducted in order to identify the local authorities' perception and needs on climate change information and the importance of climate services for the city and institution's activity. Generally, the results suggest that the selected institutions are poorly aware of the potential impacts of climate change and associated extremes in the area, but they showed a real interest for future climate estimations necessary to undertake reliable adaptation measures. At institutional level, do not exist specialized departments (job positions) to tackle or manage climate information and climate-related aspects, this not being a pressing or priority issue for the city. The climate services aspects are seen with interest mainly in supplying climate scenarios and models for a relatively short term (next 10 or 15 years), the climate information being in this way included in the local planning strategies.

Monitoring groundwater variation by satellite and implications for in-situ gravity measurements.

PubMed

Fukuda, Yoichi; Yamamoto, Keiko; Hasegawa, Takashi; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Nishijima, Jun; Taniguchi, Makoto

2009-04-15

In order to establish a new technique for monitoring groundwater variations in urban areas, the applicability of precise in-situ gravity measurements and extremely high precision satellite gravity data via GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) was tested. Using the GRACE data, regional scale water mass variations in four major river basins of the Indochina Peninsula were estimated. The estimated variations were compared with Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (SVATS) models with a river flow model of 1) globally uniform river velocity, 2) river velocity tuned by each river basin, 3) globally uniform river velocity considering groundwater storage, and 4) river velocity tuned by each river basin considering groundwater storage. Model 3) attained the best fit to the GRACE data, and the model 4) yielded almost the same values. This implies that the groundwater plays an important role in estimating the variation of total terrestrial storage. It also indicates that tuning river velocity, which is based on the in-situ measurements, needs further investigations in combination with the GRACE data. The relationships among GRACE data, SVATS models, and in-situ measurements were also discussed briefly.