A machine learning approach to estimation of downward solar radiation from satellite-derived data products: An application over a semi-arid ecosystem in the U.S.

PubMed Central

Flores, Alejandro; Glenn, Nancy F.; Walters, Reggie; Han, Bangshuai

2017-01-01

Shortwave solar radiation is an important component of the surface energy balance and provides the principal source of energy for terrestrial ecosystems. This paper presents a machine learning approach in the form of a random forest (RF) model for estimating daily downward solar radiation flux at the land surface over complex terrain using MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) remote sensing data. The model-building technique makes use of a unique network of 16 solar flux measurements in the semi-arid Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed and Critical Zone Observatory, in southwest Idaho, USA. Based on a composite RF model built on daily observations from all 16 sites in the watershed, the model simulation of downward solar radiation matches well with the observation data (r2 = 0.96). To evaluate model performance, RF models were built from 12 of 16 sites selected at random and validated against the observations at the remaining four sites. Overall root mean square errors (RMSE), bias, and mean absolute error (MAE) are small (range: 37.17 W/m2-81.27 W/m2, -48.31 W/m2-15.67 W/m2, and 26.56 W/m2-63.77 W/m2, respectively). When extrapolated to the entire watershed, spatiotemporal patterns of solar flux are largely consistent with expected trends in this watershed. We also explored significant predictors of downward solar flux in order to reveal important properties and processes controlling downward solar radiation. Based on the composite RF model built on all 16 sites, the three most important predictors to estimate downward solar radiation include the black sky albedo (BSA) near infrared band (0.858 μm), BSA visible band (0.3–0.7 μm), and clear day coverage. This study has important implications for improving the ability to derive downward solar radiation through a fusion of multiple remote sensing datasets and can potentially capture spatiotemporally varying trends in solar radiation that is useful for land surface hydrologic and terrestrial ecosystem modeling. PMID:28777811

Water-level conditions in the confined aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Depaul, Vincent T.; Rosman, Robert

2015-01-01

From 1998 to 2008, downward water-level trends were observed at 22 wells (29 percent), upward trends were observed at 21 wells (27 percent), and insubstantial trends at 34 wells (44 percent). Downward trends were detected most often at wells open to the Piney Point aquifer and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Upward water-level trends were most frequent in wells open to the Englishtown aquifer system in Critical Area 1 and in wells within the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in southern New Jersey.

Revisiting the Cause of the 1989-2009 Arctic Surface Warming Using the Surface Energy Budget: Downward Infrared Radiation Dominates the Surface Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sukyoung; Gong, Tingting; Feldstein, Steven B.; Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian

2017-10-01

The Arctic has been warming faster than elsewhere, especially during the cold season. According to the leading theory, ice-albedo feedback warms the Arctic Ocean during the summer, and the heat gained by the ocean is released during the winter, causing the cold-season warming. Screen and Simmonds (2010; SS10) concluded that the theory is correct by comparing trend patterns in surface air temperature (SAT), surface turbulence heat flux (HF), and net surface infrared radiation (IR). However, in this comparison, downward IR is more appropriate to use. By analyzing the same data used in SS10 using the surface energy budget, it is shown here that over most of the Arctic the skin temperature trend, which closely resembles the SAT trend, is largely accounted for by the downward IR, not the HF, trend.

Partial harvesting of hardwood sawtimber in Kentucky and Tennessee, 2002–2014

Treesearch

Thomas J. Brandeis

2017-01-01

Partial harvesting is the predominant but not exclusive cutting treatment applied to the hardwood forests of Kentucky and Tennessee. Hardwood harvest in Kentucky showed a slight downward trend from 2006 to 2014, with most of the volume harvested in partial logging operations. Tennessee did not show this same downward trend, and the amount of hardwood volume harvested...

Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance.

PubMed

Willson, R C; Hudson, H S; Frohlich, C; Brusa, R W

1986-11-28

The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019% per year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.

On the in situ aqueous alteration of soils on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amundson, Ronald; Ewing, S.; Dietrich, W.; Sutter, B.; Owen, J.; Chadwick, O.; Nishiizumi, K.; Walvoord, Michelle Ann; McKay, C.

2008-01-01

Early (>3 Gy) wetter climate conditions on Mars have been proposed, and it is thus likely that pedogenic processes have occurred there at some point in the past. Soil and rock chemistry of the Martian landing sites were evaluated to test the hypothesis that in situ aqueous alteration and downward movement of solutes have been among the processes that have transformed these portions of the Mars regolith. A geochemical mass balance shows that Martian soils at three landing sites have lost significant quantities of major rock-forming elements and have gained elements that are likely present as soluble ions. The loss of elements is interpreted to have occurred during an earlier stage(s) of weathering that may have been accompanied by the downward transport of weathering products, and the salts are interpreted to be emplaced later in a drier Mars history. Chemical differences exist among the sites, indicating regional differences in soil composition. Shallow soil profile excavations at Gusev crater are consistent with late stage downward migration of salts, implying the presence of small amounts of liquid water even in relatively recent Martian history. While the mechanisms for chemical weathering and salt additions on Mars remain unclear, the soil chemistry appears to record a decline in leaching efficiency. A deep sedimentary exposure at Endurance crater contains complex depth profiles of SO4, Cl, and Br, trends generally consistent with downward aqueous transport accompanied by drying. While no model for the origin of Martian soils can be fully constrained with the currently available data, a pedogenic origin is consistent with observed Martian geology and geochemistry, and provides a testable hypothesis that can be evaluated with present and future data from the Mars surface. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Simulated permafrost soil thermal dynamics during 1960-2009 in eight offline processed-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, S.; Gouttevin, I.; Krinner, G.; Ciais, P.

2013-12-01

Permafrost soil thermal dynamics not only determine the status of permafrost, but also have large impacts on permafrost organic carbon decomposition. Here, we used eight processed based models that participated in the Vulnerability Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (RCN) project to investigate: (1) the trends in soil temperature at different depths over the northern hemisphere permafrost region during the past five decades, and (2) which factors drive trends and inter-annual variability of permafrost soil temperature? The simulated annual soil temperature at 20cm increases by ~0.02 °C per year from 1960 to 2009 (ranging from 0.00 °C per year in CoLM to 0.04 °C per year in ISBA). Most models simulated more warming of soil in spring and winter than in summer and autumn, although there were different seasonal trends in different models. Trends in soil temperature decrease with soil depth in all models. To quantify the contributions of various factors (air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation etc.) to trends and inter-annual variation in soil temperature, we ran offline models with detrended air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation, respectively. Our results suggest that both annual air temperature and downward longwave radiation significantly correlate with annual soil temperature. Moreover, trend in air temperature and downward longwave radiation contribute 30% and 60% to trends in soil temperature (0 - 200cm), respectively, during the period 1960-2009. Spatial distributions of trend in annual soil temperature at 20cm from R01 simulations of (a) CLM4, (b) CoLM, (c) ISBA, (d) JULES, (e) LPJ_GUESS, (f) ORCHIDEE, (g) UVic and (h) UW-VIC during the period 1960-2009.

National Trends in Substance Use and Use Disorders Among Youth.

PubMed

Han, Beth; Compton, Wilson M; Blanco, Carlos; DuPont, Robert L

2017-09-01

To examine trends in the 12-month prevalence of patterns of substance use and substance use disorders (SUDs) among US youth during 2002 through 2014. Data were from 288,300 persons 12 to 17 years old who participated in the 2002 to 2014 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health. Descriptive analyses and bivariable and multivariable logistic regressions were applied. During 2002 through 2014, among US youth, the 12-month prevalence of any substance use decreased by 27.1% (from 43.2% to 31.5%); among youth users, the 12-month prevalence of SUDs decreased by 28.9% (from 27.0% to 19.2%), and the ratio of substance dependence to abuse decreased from 2.2 to 1.6. Multiple substance use was common and was associated with SUDs. During 2002 through 2014, the prevalence of using marijuana and alcohol only, using marijuana only, and having marijuana use disorders only increased, whereas most other trends were downward. Increases in age at first substance use were associated with downward trends in any substance use. Upward trends in age at first substance use, youth and parental strong disapproval of cigarette use, and youths' seatbelt-wearing prevalence and downward trends in substance use patterns were associated with the downward trend in SUDs among youth users. The 12-month prevalence of any substance use among youth and SUDs among youth users decreased during 2002 through 2014. Postponing age at first use of any substance is critical among youth in the United States. Future research is needed to better understand the interrelations between specific risk and protective factors, age at first substance use, substance use patterns, and SUDs among youth users. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Trends in the Missouri River Basin, 1993-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sprague, Lori A.; Clark, Melanie L.; Rus, David L.; Zelt, Ronald B.; Flynn, Jennifer L.; Davis, Jerri V.

2007-01-01

Trends in streamflow and concentration of total nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended sediment were determined for the period from 1993 to 2003 at selected stream sites in the Missouri River Basin. Flow-adjusted trends in concentration (the trends that would have occurred in the absence of natural changes in streamflow) and non-flow-adjusted trends in concentration (the overall trends resulting from natural and human factors) were determined. In the analysis of flow-adjusted trends, the removal of streamflow as a variable affecting concentration allowed trends caused by other factors such as implementation of best management practices to be identified. In the analysis of non-flow-adjusted trends, the inclusion of any and all factors affecting concentration allowed trends affecting aquatic ecosystems and the status of streams relative to water-quality standards to be identified. Relations between the flow-adjusted and non-flow-adjusted trends and changes in streamflow, nutrient sources, ground-water inputs, and implementation of management practices also were examined to determine the major factors affecting the trends. From 1993 to 2003, widespread downward trends in streamflow indicated that drought conditions from about 2000 to 2003 led to decreasing streamflow throughout much of the Missouri River Basin. Flow-adjusted trends in nitrite plus nitrate and ammonia concentrations were split nearly equally between nonsignificant and downward; at about one-half of the sites, management practices likely were contributing to measurable decreases in concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate and ammonia. Management practices had less of an effect on concentrations of total nitrogen; downward flow-adjusted trends in total nitrogen concentrations occurred at only 2 of 19 sites. The pattern of non-flow-adjusted trends in nitrite plus nitrate concentrations was similar to the pattern of flow-adjusted trends; non-flow-adjusted trends were split nearly equally between nonsignificant and downward. A substantial source of nitrite plus nitrate to these streams likely was ground water; because of the time required for ground water to travel to streams, there may have been a lag time between the implementation of some pollution-control strategies and improvement in stream quality, contributing to the nonsignificant trends in nitrite plus nitrate. There were more sites with downward non-flow-adjusted trends than flow-adjusted trends in both ammonia and total nitrogen concentrations, possibly a result of decreased surface runoff from nonpoint sources associated with the downward trends in streamflow. No strong relations between any of the nitrogen trends and changes in nutrient sources or landscape characteristics were identified. Although there were very few upward trends in nitrogen from 1993 to 2003, there were upward flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations at nearly one-half of the sites. At these sites, not only were pollution-control strategies not contributing to measurable decreases in total phosphorus concentrations, there was likely an increase in phosphorus loading on the land surface. There were fewer upward non-flow-adjusted than flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations; at the majority of sites, overall total phosphorus concentrations did not change significantly during this period. The preponderance of upward flow-adjusted trends and nonsignificant non-flow-adjusted trends indicates that in some areas of the Missouri River Basin, overall concentrations of total phosphorus would have been higher without the decrease in streamflow and the associated decrease in surface runoff during the study period. During the study period, phosphorus loads from fertilizer generally increased at over one-half of the sites in the basin. Upward flow-adjusted trends were related to increasing fertilizer use in the upstream drainage area, particularly in the 10 percent

Northern Hemisphere climate trends in reanalysis and forecast model predictions: The 500 hPa annual means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordi, I.; Fraedrich, K.; Sutera, A.

2010-06-01

The lead time dependent climates of the ECMWF weather prediction model, initialized with ERA-40 reanalysis, are analysed using 44 years of day-1 to day-10 forecasts of the northern hemispheric 500-hPa geopotential height fields. The study addresses the question whether short-term tendencies have an impact on long-term trends. Comparing climate trends of ERA-40 with those of the forecasts, it seems that the forecast model rapidly loses the memory of initial conditions creating its own climate. All forecast trends show a high degree of consistency. Comparison results suggest that: (i) Only centers characterized by an upward trend are statistical significant when increasing the lead time. (ii) In midilatitudes an upward trend larger than the one observed in the reanalysis characterizes the forecasts, while in the tropics there is a good agreement. (iii) The downward trend in reanalysis at high latitudes characterizes also the day-1 forecast which, however, increasing lead time approaches zero.

Influence of reproductive tract obstruction on expression of epididymal proteins and their restoration after patency.

PubMed

Li, Bing-Kun; Wang, Xiang; Liu, Chun-Xiao; Zheng, Shao-Bo; Li, Hu-Lin; Li, Li-Ping; Xu, A-Bai

2013-01-01

Vasectomy is a simple and reliable method of male contraception. A growing number of men after vasectomy request vasectomy reversal due to various reasons. The pregnancy rate is lower than the patency rate after vasovasostomy and the pregnancy rate is time dependent. In this study, we evaluated the influence of reproductive tract obstruction on expression of epididymal proteins and their restoration after patency. Adult male Wistar rats were studied 30, 60 and 120 days after vasectomy, 30 days after vasovasostomy or after sham operations. Two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, mass-spectrometric technique, multidatabase search, Western blotting and real-time PCR were used to analyze the expression regulation of epididymal proteins. Total integrated intensity and total spot area of autoradiograms showed a consistent downward trend with time after obstruction, and this trend remained after patency. The intensity of the autoradiographic spots in three patency groups showed three trends: a downward trend, similar intensity and an upward trend compared with the correspondent obstruction group, respectively. Further verified experiments on human epididymis 2 (HE2), fertilization antigen-1 (FA-1), clusterin and PH20 demonstrated that compared with the correspondent obstruction group, the translation levels of HE2 and the mRNA transcription levels of HE2 showed an upward trend in patency groups, especially in the groups of obstruction for 60 days where the expression levels of HE2 were significantly upregulated after patency (P<0.05). Reproductive tract obstruction provokes a disregulation of gene expression in the epididymis and this disregulation remained after patency. Successful reversal may recover some proteins and the recovery is time dependent. Obstruction differentially alters mRNA transcription of different proteins and the content of proteins seemed to be easier to be influenced than the gene transcription.

Impact of specialist care on clinical outcomes for medical emergencies.

PubMed

Moore, Stuart; Gemmell, Islay; Almond, Solomon; Buchan, Iain; Osman, Isameldin; Glover, Andrew; Williams, Peter; Carroll, Nadine; Rhodes, Jonathan

2006-01-01

General hospitals have commonly involved a wide range of medical specialists in the care of unselected medical emergency admissions. In 1999, the Royal Liverpool University Hospital, a 915-bed hospital with a busy emergency service, changed its system of care for medical emergencies to allow early placement of admitted patients under the care of the most appropriate specialist team, with interim care provided by specialist acute physicians on an acute medicine unit - a system we have termed 'specialty triage'. Here we describe a retrospective study in which all 133,509 emergency medical admissions from February 1995 to January 2003 were analysed by time-series analysis with correction for the underlying downward trend from 1995 to 2003. This showed that the implementation of specialty triage in May 1999 was associated with a subsequent additional reduction in the mortality of the under-65 age group by 0.64% (95% CI 0.11 to 1.17%; P=0.021) from the 2.4% mortality rate prior to specialty triage, equivalent to approximately 51 fewer deaths per year. No significant effect was seen for those over 65 or all age groups together when corrected for the underlying trend. Length of stay and readmission rates showed a consistent downward trend that was not significantly affected by specialty triage. The data suggest that appropriate specialist management improves outcomes for medical emergencies, particularly amongst younger patients.

Loads and yields of selected constituents in streams and rivers of Monroe County, New York, 1984-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, Donald A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic data collected in Monroe County since the 1980s and earlier, including long-term records of streamflow and chemical loads, provide a basis for assessment of water-management practices. All monitored streams except Northrup Creek showed a slight (nonsignificant) overall decrease in annual streamflow over their period of record; Northrup Creek showed a slight increase.The highest yields of all constituents except chloride and sulfate were at Northrup Creek; these values exceeded those of the seven Irondequoit Creek basin sites and the Genesee River site. The highest yields of dissolved chloride were at the most highly urbanized site (Allen Creek), whereas the highest yields of dissolved sulfate were at the most upstream Irondequoit Creek sites -- Railroad Mills (active) and Pittsford (inactive). Yields of all constituents in the Genesee River at the Charlotte Pump Station were within the range of those at the Irondequoit Creek basin sites.The four active Irondequoit Creek basin sites showed significant downward trends in flow-adjusted loads of ammonia + organic nitrogen, possibly from the conversion of agricultural land to suburban land. Two active sites (Allen Creek and Blossom Road) and one inactive site (Thomas Creek) showed downward trends in loads of ammonia. All active sites showed significant upward trends in dissolved chloride loads. Northrup Creek showed a significant downward trend in total phosphorus load since the improvement in phosphorus removal at the Spencerport wastewater-treatment plant, and upward trends in dissolved chloride and sulfate loads. The Genesee River at the Charlotte Pump Station showed significant downward trends in loads of ammonia + organic nitrogen and chloride, and an upward trend in loads of orthophosphate.The improved treatment or diversion of sewage-treatment-plant-effluent has produced decreased yields of some constituents throughout the county, particularly in the Irondequoit Creek basin, where the loads of nutrients delivered to Irondequoit Bay have been decreased.

MONITORING FOR POLICY-RELEVANT REGIONAL TRENDS OVER TIME

EPA Science Inventory

The term trend describes the continuing directional change in the value of an indicator, generally upward or generally downward. Many policy questions concern trend across a number of sites, such as lakes in a region, rather than trend at a single site. Power to detect regional t...

Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yajuan; Wang, Lei; Lei, Xiaoyan; Wang, Xidong

2015-11-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) is analyzed using 23 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index (GPI). The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2). Spatial distributions of July-October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTrACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982-2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multimodel ensemble (MME) mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20°N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982-1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of 20°N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.

Examination of Regional Trends in Cloud Properties over Surface Sites Derived from MODIS and AVHRR using the CERES Cloud Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, W. L., Jr.; Minnis, P.; Bedka, K. M.; Sun-Mack, S.; Chen, Y.; Doelling, D. R.; Kato, S.; Rutan, D. A.

2017-12-01

Recent studies analyzing long-term measurements of surface insolation at ground sites suggest that decadal-scale trends of increasing (brightening) and decreasing (dimming) downward solar flux have occurred at various times over the last century. Regional variations have been reported that range from near 0 Wm-2/decade to as large as 9 Wm-2/decade depending on the location and time period analyzed. The more significant trends have been attributed to changes in overhead clouds and aerosols, although quantifying their relative impacts using independent observations has been difficult, owing in part to a lack of consistent long-term measurements of cloud properties. This paper examines new satellite based records of cloud properties derived from MODIS (2000-present) and AVHRR (1981- present) data to infer cloud property trends over a number of surface radiation sites across the globe. The MODIS cloud algorithm was developed for the NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project to provide a consistent record of cloud properties to help improve broadband radiation measurements and to better understand cloud radiative effects. The CERES-MODIS cloud algorithm has been modified to analyze other satellites including the AVHRR on the NOAA satellites. Compared to MODIS, obtaining consistent cloud properties over a long period from AVHRR is a much more significant challenge owing to the number of different satellites, instrument calibration uncertainties, orbital drift and other factors. Nevertheless, both the MODIS and AVHRR cloud properties will be analyzed to determine trends, and their level of consistency and correspondence with surface radiation trends derived from the ground-based radiometer data. It is anticipated that this initial study will contribute to an improved understanding of surface solar radiation trends and their relationship to clouds.

Trends in selected streamflow statistics at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico, 1922-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Trends in selected streamflow statistics during 1922-2009 were evaluated at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations considered indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, evaluated streamflow data from streamflow-gaging stations with more than 50 years of record that were active as of 2009. The outflows into Arkansas and Louisiana were represented by 3 streamflow-gaging stations, and outflows into the Gulf of Mexico, including Galveston Bay, were represented by 16 streamflow-gaging stations. Monotonic trend analyses were done using the following three streamflow statistics generated from daily mean values of streamflow: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual maximum daily discharge, and (3) annual minimum daily discharge. The trend analyses were based on the nonparametric Kendall's Tau test, which is useful for the detection of monotonic upward or downward trends with time. A total of 69 trend analyses by Kendall's Tau were computed - 19 periods of streamflow multiplied by the 3 streamflow statistics plus 12 additional trend analyses because the periods of record for 2 streamflow-gaging stations were divided into periods representing pre- and post-reservoir impoundment. Unless otherwise described, each trend analysis used the entire period of record for each streamflow-gaging station. The monotonic trend analysis detected 11 statistically significant downward trends, 37 instances of no trend, and 21 statistically significant upward trends. One general region studied, which seemingly has relatively more upward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed, includes the rivers and associated creeks and bayous to Galveston Bay in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, the most western river basins considered (the Nueces and Rio Grande) had statistically significant downward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed.

National trends in occupational injuries before and after 1992 and predictors of workers' compensation costs.

PubMed

Bhushan, Abhinav; Leigh, J Paul

2011-01-01

Numbers and costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are significant in terms of morbidity and dollars, yet our understanding of time trends is minimal. We investigated trends and addressed some common hypotheses regarding causes of fluctuations. We pulled data on incidence rates (per 100 full-time employed workers) for injuries and illnesses from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and on costs and benefits from the National Academy of Social Insurance for 1973 through 2007. Rates reflected all injury and illness cases, lost work-time cases, and cases resulting in at least 31 days away from work. We adjusted dollar costs (premiums) and benefits for inflation and measured them per employed worker. We plotted data in time-trend charts and ran linear regressions. From 1973 to 1991, there was a weak to nonexistent downward trend for injury and illness rates, and rates were strongly and negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. From 1992 to 2007, there were strong, consistent downward trends, but no longer were there statistically significant correlations with unemployment. Significant predictors (and signs) of workers' compensation premiums for 1973-2007 included medical price inflation (positive), number of lost-time injuries (positive), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (negative), and inflation-adjusted interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds (negative). Dollars of benefits were positively and significantly predicted by medical inflation and number of lost-time cases. For 1992-2007, the Dow Jones variable was the only robust predictor of premiums; the number of injuries was not a significant positive predictor. We had two major conclusions. First, the year 1992 marked a sharp contrast in trends and correlations between unemployment and incidence rates for occupational injuries and illnesses. Second, for the entire time period (1973-2007), insurance carriers' premiums were strongly associated with returns on investments.

National Trends in Occupational Injuries Before and After 1992 and Predictors of Workers' Compensation Costs

PubMed Central

Bhushan, Abhinav; Leigh, J. Paul

2011-01-01

Objective Numbers and costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are significant in terms of morbidity and dollars, yet our understanding of time trends is minimal. We investigated trends and addressed some common hypotheses regarding causes of fluctuations. Methods We pulled data on incidence rates (per 100 full-time employed workers) for injuries and illnesses from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and on costs and benefits from the National Academy of Social Insurance for 1973 through 2007. Rates reflected all injury and illness cases, lost work-time cases, and cases resulting in at least 31 days away from work. We adjusted dollar costs (premiums) and benefits for inflation and measured them per employed worker. We plotted data in time-trend charts and ran linear regressions. Results From 1973 to 1991, there was a weak to nonexistent downward trend for injury and illness rates, and rates were strongly and negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. From 1992 to 2007, there were strong, consistent downward trends, but no longer were there statistically significant correlations with unemployment. Significant predictors (and signs) of workers' compensation premiums for 1973–2007 included medical price inflation (positive), number of lost-time injuries (positive), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (negative), and inflation-adjusted interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds (negative). Dollars of benefits were positively and significantly predicted by medical inflation and number of lost-time cases. For 1992–2007, the Dow Jones variable was the only robust predictor of premiums; the number of injuries was not a significant positive predictor. Conclusion We had two major conclusions. First, the year 1992 marked a sharp contrast in trends and correlations between unemployment and incidence rates for occupational injuries and illnesses. Second, for the entire time period (1973–2007), insurance carriers' premiums were strongly associated with returns on investments. PMID:21886322

Dental Caries (Tooth Decay)

MedlinePlus

... among some population groups. In addition, this downward trend has recently reversed for young children. The National ... Click on the links below for details about trends in dental caries as well as detailed caries ...

Summary and evaluation of the quality of stormwater in Denver, Colorado, 2006-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Michael R.; Slaughter, Cecil B.

2012-01-01

Stormwater in the Denver area was sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Urban Drainage and Flood Control District, in a network of 5 monitoring stations - 3 on the South Platte River and 2 on streams tributary to the South Platte River, Sand Creek, and Toll Gate Creek beginning in January 2006 and continuing through December 2010. Stormwater samples were analyzed at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory during 2006-2010 for water-quality properties such as pH, specific conductance, hardness, and residue on evaporation at 105 degrees Celsius; for constituents such as major ions (calcium, magnesium), organic carbon and nutrients, including ammonia plus organic nitrogen, ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate; and for metals, including total recoverable and dissolved phases of copper, lead, manganese, and zinc. Samples collected during selected storms were also analyzed for bacteriological indicators such as Escherichia coli and fecal coliform at the Metro Wastewater Reclamation Laboratory. About 200 stormwater samples collected during storms characterize the quality of storm runoff during 2006-2010. In general, the quality of stormwater (2006-2010) has improved for many water-quality constituents, many of which had lower values and concentrations than those in stormwater collected in 2002-2005. However, the physical basis, processes, and the role of dilution that account for these changes are complex and beyond the scope of this report. The water-quality sampling results indicate few exceptions to standards except for dissolved manganese, dissolved zinc, and Escherichia coli. Stormwater collected at the South Platte River below Union Avenue station had about 10 percent acute or chronic dissolved manganese exceedances in samples; samples collected at the South Platte River at Denver station had less than 5 percent acute or chronic dissolved manganese exceedances. In contrast, samples collected at Toll Gate Creek above 6th Avenue at Aurora station, Sand Creek at mouth near Commerce City station, and the South Platte River at Henderson station, each had about 30 to 50 percent exceedances of both acute and chronic dissolved manganese standards. Of the samples collected at Sand Creek at mouth near Commerce City, 1 sample exceeded the acute standard and 4 samples exceeded the chronic standard for dissolved zinc, but no samples collected from the other sites exceeded either standard for zinc. Almost all samples of stormwater analyzed for Escherichia coli exceeded Colorado numeric standards. A numerical standard for fecal coliform is no longer applicable as of 2004. Results from the 2002-2005 study indicated that the general quality of stormwater had improved during 2002-2005 compared to 1998-2001, having fewer exceedances of Colorado standards, and showing downward trends for many water-quality values and concentrations. These trends coincided with general downward or relatively similar mean streamflows for the 2002-2005 compared to 1998-2001, which indicates that dilution may be a smaller influence on values and concentrations than other factors. For this report, downward trends were indicated for many constituents at each station during 2006-2010 compared to 2002-2005. The trends for mean streamflow for 2006-2010 compared to 2002-2005 are upward at all sites except for the South Platte River at Henderson, indicating that dilution by larger flows could be a factor in the downward concentration trends. At the South Platte River below Union Avenue station, downward trends were indicated for hardness, dissolved ammonia, dissolved orthophosphate, and dissolved copper. Upward trends at South Platte River below Union Avenue were indicated for pH. At the South Platte River at Denver station, downward trends were indicated for total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, and dissolved lead, manganese, and zinc, and total recoverable zinc. An upward trend in properties and constituents at South Platte River at Denver was indicated for pH. At Toll Gate Creek above 6th Avenue at Aurora, downward trends were indicated for residue on evaporation, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, and total recoverable copper, lead, manganese, and zinc. Upward trends in properties and constituents at Toll Gate Creek above 6th Avenue at Aurora were indicated for pH, specific conductance, and dissolved nitrite plus nitrate. At Sand Creek at mouth near Commerce City, downward trends were indicated for hardness, dissolved calcium, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, and dissolved ammonia, orthophosphate, manganese, and zinc. An upward trend in properties and constituents at Sand Creek at mouth near Commerce City was indicated for pH. Downward trends at South Platte River at Henderson were indicated for specific conductance, hardness, dissolved magnesium, residue on evaporation, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, dissolved lead and manganese, and total recoverable copper, lead, manganese, and zinc.

Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean.

An overview of time trends in organic contaminant concentrations in marine mammals: going up or down?

PubMed

Law, Robin J

2014-05-15

In this article I review recent trends reported in the literature from 2008 to date for organic contaminant concentrations in marine mammal tissues worldwide, in order to get an idea of where we stand currently in relation to the control of hazardous substances. For many contaminants which have been subject to regulation regarding their production and use (e.g. organochlorine pesticides, PBDE and HBCD flame retardants, butyltins) trends are downwards. For perfluorinated compounds, trends are more mixed. For dioxins, furans and dioxin-like CBs, there are no recent data, for either concentrations or trends. For CBs overall, earlier downward trends in concentration in UK harbour porpoises following regulation beginning in the 1980s have stalled, and remain at toxicologically significant levels. This raises concerns for killer whales and bottlenose dolphins who, because of their larger size and greater bioaccumulation potential, have higher levels still, often far above accepted toxicological threshold values. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trend Damping: Under-Adjustment, Experimental Artifact, or Adaptation to Features of the Natural Environment?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harvey, Nigel; Reimers, Stian

2013-01-01

People's forecasts from time series underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones. This trend damping may occur because (a) people anchor on the last data point and make insufficient adjustment to take the trend into account, (b) they adjust toward the average of the trends they have encountered within the…

Spatio-temporal analysis of recent groundwater-level trends in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bui, Duong Du; Kawamura, Akira; Tong, Thanh Ngoc; Amaguchi, Hideo; Nakagawa, Naoko

2012-12-01

A groundwater-monitoring network has been in operation in the Red River Delta, Vietnam, since 1995. Trends in groundwater level (1995-2009) in 57 wells in the Holocene unconfined aquifer and 63 wells in the Pleistocene confined aquifer were determined by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. At each well, 17 time series (e.g. annual, seasonal, monthly), computed from the original data, were analyzed. Analysis of the annual groundwater-level means revealed that 35 % of the wells in the unconfined aquifer showed downward trends, while about 21 % showed upward trends. On the other hand, confined-aquifer groundwater levels experienced downward trends in almost all locations. Spatial distributions of trends indicated that the strongly declining trends (>0.3 m/year) were mainly found in urban areas around Hanoi where there is intensive abstraction of groundwater. Although the trend results for most of the 17 time series at a given well were quite similar, different trend patterns were detected in several. The findings reflect unsustainable groundwater development and the importance of maintaining groundwater monitoring and a database in the Delta, particularly in urban areas.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2006-01-01

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations during 1987-2003 for two stations were significant. However, concentrations during recent years appear to be lower than those for the 1970s and early 1980s but higher than those for the late 1980s and early 1990s. The fitted downward linear trend for dissolved ammonia concentrations for one station was significant. The fitted linear trends for total phosphorus concentrations for two stations were significant. Upward trends for total phosphorus concentrations occurred from the late 1980s to 2003 for most stations, but a small and insignificant downward trend occurred for one station. Continued monitoring will be needed to determine if the recent trend toward higher dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations continues in the future. For continued monitoring of water-quality trends in the upper Devils Lake Basin, an efficient sampling design consists of five major-ion, nutrient, and trace-element samples per year at three existing stream stations and at three existing lake stations. This sampling design requires the collection of 15 stream samples and 15 lake samples per year rather than 16 stream samples and 20 lake samples per year as in the 1992-2003 program. Thus, the design would result in a program that is less costly and more efficient than the 1992-2003 program but that still would provide the data needed to monitor water-quality trends in the Devils Lake Basin.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based up...

A buried marine depositional sequence (Presumpscot FM. ) N. of the marine limit, Waterboro, Maine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morency, R.E.

Subsurface investigations conducted in Waterboro, ME (York Co.) in connection with studies of two hazardous waste sites and a municipal water supply exploration project, have demonstrated that a laterally extensive sequence of marine deposits underlies surficial sediments mapped as non-esker ice contact glacio-fluvial deposits. The marine deposits consist of a fining-downwards sequence of grey, micaceous sands (fine to medium, grading down to a silty-fine sand), which grade downward into a thick ([plus minus] 30 feet) grey silt/clay unit, which itself shows a fining-downward trend. The stratigraphy is likely correlative to the Presumpscot Formation, as described by Bloom (1963). The bottommore » of the regressive marine sequence is marked at several locations by a thin layer of sand-sized biotite mica. Lodgement till was encountered only at scattered localities (in boreholes) at each site. The bedrock surface is of considerable relief, with changes of 200--300 feet over short distances detected. The sequence appears to be the record of a rapidly transgressing sea which inundated a valley where outwash had been deposited by meltwater ahead of retreating ice. As the sea retreated, up to 70 feet of sediment was deposited in a continuous, coarsening-upwards sequence. Subsequent to the marine regression, the sediments were reworked in a subaerial (braided stream) environment. The Surficial Geologic Map of Maine shows that the inland limit of late-glacial marine submergence is located approximately 8 miles southwest of Waterboro, in Alfred, Maine. The marine limit in Alfred takes the form of a NNE trending, blunt-ended embayment. The results of this study suggest that the marine embayment once extended northward from Alfred, and is now a buried feature, possibly representing a preglacial valley, which hosted an estuary in late Wisconsonian time.« less

Variation of Temperature and Precipitation in Urban Agglomeration and Prevention Suggestion of Waterlogging in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, Liu; Youjie, Jin; Jiaqi, Dai

2018-03-01

The variation trend of temperature and precipitation during flood season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin in recent 50 years and change characteristics of rainfall in five typical flood prone cities are analysed. Aiming at waterlogging problems in the urban agglomeration of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the comprehensive prevention and control suggestions are put forward. The results showed that: the temperature trend in the basin decreased and then increased, and the precipitation showed a downward-rising-downward trend, no mutation occurred; The incidence of heavy rainfall events in the five typical cities with daily rainfall more than 50mm showed an upward trend, and increased significantly after 2002. The intensity of precipitation increased gradually. Climate change makes urban agglomeration waterlogging disasters become increasingly prominent in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

PubMed Central

Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-01-01

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. PMID:26032315

Changes in the chemistry of precipitation in the United States, 1981-1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nilles, M.A.; Conley, B.E.

2001-01-01

Regulatory measures in the United States, such as Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, have primarily restricted sulfur dioxide emissions as a way to control acidic deposition. These restrictions, coupled with increasing concentrations of NH4+ in wet deposition in some regions of the U.S. and continued high emissions of nitrogen oxides have generated a significant shift in the chemistry of precipitation as measured at National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network sites. Trends in precipitation chemistry at NADP/NTN sites were evaluated for statistical significance for the period 1981-1998 using a Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test, a robust non-parametric test for detection of monotonic trends. SO42- declines were detected at 100 of the 147 sites examined while no sites exhibited increasing SO42- trends. On average, SO42- declined 35% over the period 1981-1998 with downward SO42- trends being most pronounced in the northeastern United States. In contrast, no consistent trends in NO3- concentrations were observed in precipitation in any major region of the United States. Although the majority of sites did not exhibit significant trends in NH4+ concentration, 30 sites exhibited upward trends. For Ca2+ concentration in precipitation, 64 sites exhibited a significant decreasing trend and no sites exhibited an upward trend.

Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009.

PubMed

Vijayaraghavan, Krish; DenBleyker, Allison; Ma, Lan; Lindhjem, Chris; Yarwood, Greg

2014-07-01

On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995-2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO(x), and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995-2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO(x) emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001-2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO(x), VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of the benefits of past control measures.

A trend analysis of surgical operations under a global payment system in Tehran, Iran (2005–2015)

PubMed Central

Goudari, Faranak Behzadi; Rashidian, Arash; Arab, Mohammad; Mahmoudi, Mahmood

2018-01-01

Background Global payment system is a first example of per-case payment system that contains 60 commonly used surgical operations for which payment is based on the average cost per case in Iran. Objective The aim of the study was to determine the amount of reduction, increase or no change in the trend of global operations. Methods In this retrospective longitudinal study, data on the 60 primary global surgery codes was gathered from Tehran Health Insurance Organization within the ten-year period of 2005–2015 separately, for each month. Out of 60 surgery codes, only acceptable data for 46 codes were available based on the insurance documents sent by medical centers. A quantitative analysis of time series through Regression Analysis Model using STATA software v.11 was performed. Results Some global surgery codes had an upward trend and some were downwards. Of N Codes, N83, N20, N28, N63, and N93 had an upward trend (p<0.05) and N32, N43, N81 and N90 showed a significant downward trend (p<0.05). Similarly, all H Codes except for H18 had a significant upward trend (p<0.000). As such, K Codes including K45, K56 and K81 had an increasing movement. S Codes also experienced both increasing and decreasing trends. However, none of the O Codes changed according to time. Other global surgical codes like C61, E07, M51, L60, J98 (p<0.000), I84 (p<0.031) and I86 (p<0.000) shown upward and downward trends. Total global surgeries trend was significantly upwards (B=24.26109, p<0.000). Conclusion The varying trend of global surgeries can partly reflect the behavior of service providers in order to increase their profits and minimize their costs. PMID:29765576

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

Instrumentation for remote sensing solar radiation from light aircraft.

PubMed

Howard, J A; Barton, I J

1973-10-01

The paper outlines the instrumentation needed to study, from a light aircraft, the solar radiation reflected by ground surfaces and the incoming solar radiation. A global shortwave radiometer was mounted on the roof of the aircraft and a specially designed mount was used to support a downward pointing 70-mm aerial camera, a downward pointing narrow-beam pyranometer, and, sometimes, a downward pointing global shortwave pyranometer. Calibration factors were determined for the three pyranometers by comparison with a standard Angstrom compensation pyrheliometer. Results have indicated trends in the albedos of major plant communities and have shown that the calculated albedo values vary according to whether the downward pointing instrument is narrow-beam or global. Comparisons were also made with albedos measured on the ground.

Evaluation of the impact of resident work hour restrictions on resident outpatient clinical experience.

PubMed

Patel, Shweta V; Driggers, Rita W; Zahn, Christopher M

2011-01-01

To estimate the effect of work hour restrictions on resident outpatient clinical experience. Schedule templates from academic years 1998-1999 (before work hour restrictions), 2002-2003 (when night float rotation was added in anticipation of work hour restrictions), and 2008-2009 (during work hour restrictions) were compared for outpatient clinic experience before and after work hour restrictions were implemented. Actual clinics on specific rotations and estimated patient encounters per scheduled clinic were considered. Between academic year (AY) 1998-1999 and AY 2008-2009 there was a generalized downward trend in average outpatient encounters for postgraduate year (PGY)-2, PGY-3 and PGY-4 residents (45%, 34% and 36%, respectively). For obstetrics, gynecology and ambulatory rotations, there was a downward trend in average outpatient encounters for each rotation type (61%, 14% and 63%, respectively). The average number of scheduled clinics per week was slightly decreased when comparing AY 1998-1999 to either AY 2002-2003 or AY 2008-2009. Rotation schedules before and after work hour restrictions demonstrated a downward trend in the number of scheduled outpatient encounters. These findings indicate a potential negative impact on preparation for clinical practice.

Trend analysis of ground-water levels and spring discharge in the Yucca Mountain Region, Nevada and California, 1960-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenelon, Joseph M.; Moreo, Michael T.

2002-01-01

Ground-water level and discharge data from 1960 to 2000 were analyzed for the Yucca Mountain region of southern Nevada and eastern California. Included were water-level data from 37 wells and a fissure (Devils Hole) and discharge data from five springs and from a flowing well. Data were evaluated for variability and for upward, downward, or cyclic trends with an emphasis on the period 1992-2000. Potential factors causing trends in water levels and discharge include ground-water withdrawal, infiltration of precipitation, earthquakes, evapotranspiration, barometric pressure, and earth tides. Statistically significant trends in ground-water levels or spring discharge from 1992 to 2000 were upward at 12 water-level sites and downward at 14 water-level sites and 1 spring-discharge site. In general, the magnitude of the change in water level from 1992 to 2000 was small (less than 2 feet), except where influenced by pumping or local effects such as possible equilibration from well construction or diversion of nearby surface water. Seasonal trends are superimposed on some of the long-term (1992-2000) trends in water levels and discharge. Factors causing seasonal trends include barometric pressure, evapotranspiration, and pumping. The magnitude of seasonal change in water level can vary from as little as 0.05 foot in regional aquifers to greater than 5 feet in monitoring wells near large supply wells in the Amargosa Farms area. Three major episodes of earthquake activity affected water levels in wells in the Yucca Mountain region between 1992 and 2000: the Landers/Little Skull Mountain, Northridge, and Hector Mine earthquakes. The Landers/Little Skull Mountain earthquakes, in June 1992, had the largest observed effect on water levels and on discharge during the study period. Monthly measurements of wells in the study network show that earthquakes affected water levels from a few tenths of a foot to 3.5 feet. In the Ash Meadows area, water levels remained relatively stable from 1992 to 2000, with some water levels showing small rising trends and some declining slightly. Possible reasons for water-level fluctuations at sites AD-6 (Tracer Well 3), AM-5 (Devils Hole Well), and AM-4 (Devils Hole) from 1960 to 2000 include climate change, local and regional ground-water withdrawals, and tectonic activity. In Jackass Flats, water levels from 1992 to 2000 in six wells adjacent to Fortymile Wash displayed either small upward trends or no upward or downward trend. Comparison of trends in water levels from 1983 to 2000 for these six wells shows good correlations between all wells and suggests a common mechanism controlling water levels in the area. Of the likely controls on the system--precipitation or pumping in Jackass Flats--precipitation appears to be the predominant factor controlling water levels near Fortymile Wash. Water levels in the heavily pumped Amargosa Farms area declined from about 10 to 30 feet from 1964 to 2000. Water-level declines accelerated beginning in the early 1990's as pumping rates increased substantially. Pumping in the Amargosa Farms area may affect water levels in some wells as far away as 5-14 miles. The water level at site DV-3 (Travertine Point 1 Well) and discharge at site DV-2 (Navel Spring), both in the Death Valley hydrographic area, had downward trends from 1992 to 2000. The cause of these downward trends may be linked to earthquakes, pumping in the Amargosa Farms area, or both.

Modern (1992–2011) and projected (2012–99) peak snowpack and May–July runoff for the Fort Peck Lake and Lake Sakakawea watersheds in the Upper Missouri River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamm, John F.; Todey, Dennis; Mayes Bousted, Barbara; Rossi, Shawn; Norton, Parker A.; Carter, Janet M.

2016-02-09

Annual peak snowpack was projected to have a downward trend for the Fort Peck Lake watershed and an upward trend for the lower Lake Sakakawea watershed. Projections of May–July runoff had a significant downward trend for the Fort Peck Lake, lower Lake Sakakawea, and Lake Sakakawea (combination of Fort Peck Lake and lower Lake Sakakawea) watersheds. Downward trends in projected May–July runoff indicated that power production at Fort Peck Dam might be affected particularly in the later part of the simulation (2061–99); however, confidence in projected May–July runoff for the later part of the simulation was less certain because bias-corrected air temperatures from CCSM3 and CCSM4 commonly fell outside of the observed range used for calibration. Projected May–July runoff combined for the Fort Peck Lake and lower Lake Sakakawea watersheds were on the order of magnitude of the 2011 flood for 1 simulation year for each of the CCSM-based simulations. High peak snowpack and precipitation in April, May, and June in the plains was associated with large May–July runoff events; therefore, high precipitation at lower elevations in the Fort Peck Lake and lower Lake Sakakawea watersheds was a factor in the simulation of extreme runoff events at the magnitude of the 2011 flood.

Impact of the post-2008 economic crisis on harmful drinking in the Dutch working-age population.

PubMed

de Goeij, Moniek C M; van der Wouden, Bregje; Bruggink, Jan-Willem; Otten, Ferdy; Kunst, Anton E

2016-04-01

Studies on the impact of economic crises on alcohol consumption have yielded ambiguous results. Therefore, we studied changes in trends in harmful drinking among Dutch working-age men and women after the post-2008 economic crisis started. We also assessed whether these trend changes differed across age and socioeconomic groups. We used repeated cross-sectional data from the Dutch Health Interview Survey conducted by Statistics Netherlands. Representative samples were independently drawn each month (January, 2004-December, 2013). Our working-age study population consisted of 20,140 men and 22,394 women aged 25-64. For men and women, episodic drinking was defined as drinking ≥6 glasses on one day at least once a week. Chronic drinking was defined as consuming ≥14 glasses/week for women and ≥21 for men. Segmented logistic regression was used to model trend changes separately in men and women. A downward trend in episodic and chronic drinking before the crisis slowed down after the crisis started. For episodic drinking, we observed a ceasing-of-decline among men aged 35-44/45-54/55-64, compared to a start-of-decline among those aged 25-34 (p-interaction=0.042/0.020/0.047). For chronic drinking, we observed a ceasing-of-decline among women (p=0.023) but not among men in general (p=0.238). Among men, a ceasing-of-decline did occur in those with a high income, but a start-of-decline was found among those with a low income (p-interaction=0.049). In some subgroups of the Dutch working-age population, the downward trend in episodic and chronic drinking ceased after the crisis started. This suggests that the crisis had an upward effect on harmful drinking, but only in specific populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate is changing, everything is flowing, stationarity is immortal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Montanari, Alberto

2015-04-01

There is no doubt that climate is changing -- and ever has been. The environment is also changing and in the last decades, as a result of demographic change and technological advancement, environmental change has been accelerating. These affect also the hydrological processes, whose changes in connection with rapidly changing human systems have been the focus of the new scientific decade 2013-2022 of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, entitled "Panta Rhei - Everything Flows". In view of the changing systems, it has recently suggested that, when dealing with water management and hydrological extremes, stationarity is no longer a proper assumption. Hence, it was proposed that hydrological processes should be treated as nonstationary. Two main reasons contributed to this perception. First, the climate models project a future hydroclimate that will be different from the current one. Second, as streamflow record become longer, they indicate the presence of upward or downward trends. However, till now hydroclimatic projections made in the recent past have not been verified. At the same time, evidence from quite longer records, instrumental or proxy, suggest that local trends are omnipresent but not monotonic; rather at some time upward trends turn to downward ones and vice versa. These observations suggest that improvident dismiss of stationarity and adoption of nonstationary descriptions based either on climate model outputs or observed trends may entail risks. The risks stem from the facts that the future can be different from what was deterministically projected, that deterministic projections are associated with an illusion of decreased uncertainty, as well as that nonstationary models fitted on observed data may have lower predictive capacity than simpler stationary ones. In most of the cases, what is actually needed is to revisit the concept of stationarity and try to apply it carefully, making it consistent with the presence of local trends, possibly incorporating information from deterministic predictions, whenever these prove to be reliable, and estimating the total predictive uncertainty.

Water quality of the lower Columbia River basin; analysis of current and historical water-quality data through 1994

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuhrer, Gregory J.; Tanner, Dwight Q.; Morace, Jennifer L.; McKenzie, Stuart W.; Skach, Kenneth A.

1996-01-01

Trend tests showed significant (r < 0.05) downward trends from 1973 to 1994 for three constituents at the Columbia River at Warrendale: phosphorus in unfiltered water, total dissolved solids, and specific conductance. These trends may be a consequence of more conservative agricultural practices in the area upstream from Warrendale.

Evolution of the use of noninvasive mechanical ventilation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a Spanish region, 1997-2010.

PubMed

Carpe-Carpe, Bienvenida; Hernando-Arizaleta, Lauro; Ibáñez-Pérez, M Carmen; Palomar-Rodríguez, Joaquín A; Esquinas-Rodríguez, Antonio M

2013-08-01

Noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) appeared in the 1980s as an alternative to invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in patients with acute respiratory failure. We evaluated the introduction of NIV and the results in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the Region of Murcia (Spain). A retrospective observational study based on the minimum basic hospital discharge data of all patients hospitalised for this pathology in all public hospitals in the region between 1997 and 2010. We performed a time trend analysis on hospital attendance, the use of each ventilatory intervention and hospital mortality through joinpoint regression. We identified 30.027 hospital discharges. Joinpoint analysis: downward trend in attendance (annual percentage change [APC]=-3.4, 95% CI: - 4.8; -2.0, P <.05) and in the group without ventilatory intervention (APC=-4.2%, -5.6; -2.8, P <.05); upward trend in the use of NIV (APC=16.4, 12.0; 20. 9, P <.05), and downward trend that was not statistically significant in IMV (APC=-4.5%, -10.3; 1.7). We observed an upward trend without statistical significance in overall mortality (APC=0.5, -1.3; 2.4) and in the group without intervention (APC=0.1, -1.6; 1.9); downward trend with statistical significance in the NIV group (APC=-7.1, -11.7; -2.2, P <.05) and not statistically significant in the IMV group (APC=-0,8, -6, 1; 4.8). The mean stay did not change substantially. The introduction of NIV has reduced the group of patients not receiving assisted ventilation. No improvement in results was found in terms of mortality or length of stay. Copyright © 2012 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Examining the contribution of the observed global warming trend to the California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Daithi Stone,

2014-01-01

While the SST trend mode has resulted in large SST increases that appear associated with an equatorial precipitation dipole response contrasting increases over the western Pacific and decreases over the central Pacific, the location of most of this warming is to the west of the key sensitivity areas identified in our CMIP5 composite. Removing this warming did not increase the CAM5 precipitation over California in a statistically significant manner, thus there appears to be little evidence that this long term warming trend contributed substantially to the 2013 and 2014 drought events. This result appears consistent with the lack of a long term downward trend in California precipitation. California precipitation does appear to be sensitive to north Pacific SST, and climate change models indicate substantial warming. If SST events like the unprecedented 2014 north Pacific SST anomaly become more common, California could also experience more frequent droughts. In addition, given the strong thermal control on evaporation, snowmelt, and water resources in California, the long-term warming is continuing to exert a growing stress on water availability.

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-07-13

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Ground-water hydrology of the Lower Milliken-Sarco-Tulucay Creeks area, Napa County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Michael J.

1977-01-01

Recharge within the area is generally inadequate to marginal under 1975 demand. There is insufficient recharge in the Milliken and Sarco Creeks area to support 1975 pumpage. Long-term changes in the seasonal peak water levels indicate an average decline of 1.5 feet per year (0.5 meter per year). By 1975 annual pumpage was not exceeding recharge in the Tulucay Creek area. Although a downward trend in water levels was noted in the western part of this basin in the late 1940's, the pumping distribution and its stress on the ground-water system have since changed, and no overall downward trend was evident in the Tulucay Creek area in 1975.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended on the period examined. Recent trends in Southwest precipitation are directionally consistent with anthropogenic climate change.

Trends in pesticide concentrations in streams of the western United States, 1993-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, H.M.; Domagalski, Joseph L.; Saleh, D.K.

2011-01-01

Trends in pesticide concentrations for 15 streams in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho were determined for the organophosphate insecticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon and the herbicides atrazine, s-ethyl diproplythiocarbamate (EPTC), metolachlor, simazine, and trifluralin. A parametric regression model was used to account for flow, seasonality, and antecedent hydrologic conditions and thereby estimate trends in pesticide concentrations in streams arising from changes in use amount and application method in their associated catchments. Decreasing trends most often were observed for diazinon, and reflect the shift to alternative pesticides by farmers, commercial applicators, and homeowners because of use restrictions and product cancelation. Consistent trends were observed for several herbicides, including upward trends in simazine at urban-influenced sites from 2000 to 2005, and downward trends in atrazine and EPTC at agricultural sites from the mid-1990s to 2005. The model provided additional information about pesticide occurrence and transport in the modeled streams. Two examples are presented and briefly discussed: (1) timing of peak concentrations for individual compounds varied greatly across this geographic gradient because of different application periods and the effects of local rain patterns, irrigation, and soil drainage and (2) reconstructions of continuous diazinon concentrations at sites in California are used to evaluate compliance with total maximum daily load targets.

1951 midsummer fuel moistures in Oregon and Washington national forests compared with other years.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1952-01-01

During the past four years on most Oregon and Washington national forests average midsummer fuel moisture has shown a general downward trend. Conversely, the lowering fuel moistures have caused a rising trend in midsummer forest inflammability. These trends have been brought to light by an analysis of readings from fuel moisture indicator sticks during the midsummer...

Decadal Variability and Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere From Historical Rocketsonde Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunkerton, Timothy J.

2000-01-01

Observational studies were performed using historical rocketsonde data to investigate long-term temperature trends, solar-cycle variations, and interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere. Evidence from tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude North American rocketsonde stations indicated a consistent downward trend over 25 years, with a solar cycle component superposed. The trend is about -1.4 to -2.0 K per decade and the amplitude of the decadal oscillation is about 1.1 K. Prior to trend derivation it was necessary for us to correct temperatures for aerodynamic heating in the early years. The empirically derived correction profile agrees well with a theoretical profile of Krumins and Lyons. A study was also performed of the correlation between equatorial winds and north polar temperatures in winter, showing that the entire stratospheric wind profile near the equator -- including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) -- is important to the extratropical flow, not merely the QBO component as previously thought. A strong correlation was discovered between winter polar temperatures and equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere during the preceding September, suggesting a role for the second cycle of the SAO.

Suicide and the 2008 economic recession: Who is most at risk? Trends in suicide rates in England and Wales 2001–2011

PubMed Central

Coope, Caroline; Gunnell, David; Hollingworth, William; Hawton, Keith; Kapur, Nav; Fearn, Vanessa; Wells, Claudia; Metcalfe, Chris

2014-01-01

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16–64 years old) for the period 2001–2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16–34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16–24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25–34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35–44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16–34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35–44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45–64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16–34 years, may have begun before the 2008 economic recession whilst for men aged 35–44 years old increased suicide rates mirrored recession related unemployment. This evidence suggests indicators of economic strain other than unemployment and redundancies, such as personal debt and house repossessions may contribute to increased suicide rates in younger-age men whilst for men aged 35–44 years old job loss and long-term unemployment is a key risk factor. PMID:25054280

Suicide and the 2008 economic recession: who is most at risk? Trends in suicide rates in England and Wales 2001-2011.

PubMed

Coope, Caroline; Gunnell, David; Hollingworth, William; Hawton, Keith; Kapur, Nav; Fearn, Vanessa; Wells, Claudia; Metcalfe, Chris

2014-09-01

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16-64 years old) for the period 2001-2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16-34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16-24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25-34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35-44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16-34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35-44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45-64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16-34 years, may have begun before the 2008 economic recession whilst for men aged 35-44 years old increased suicide rates mirrored recession related unemployment. This evidence suggests indicators of economic strain other than unemployment and redundancies, such as personal debt and house repossessions may contribute to increased suicide rates in younger-age men whilst for men aged 35-44 years old job loss and long-term unemployment is a key risk factor. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Analysis of water-quality trends at two discharge stations; one within Big Cypress National Preserve and one near Biscayne Bay; southern Florida, 1966-94

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lietz, A.C.

2000-01-01

An analysis of water-quality trends was made at two U.S. Geological Survey daily discharge stations in southern Florida. The ESTREND computer program was the principal tool used for the determination of water-quality trends at the Miami Canal station west of Biscayne Bay in Miami and the Tamiami Canal station along U.S. Highway 41 in the Big Cypress National Preserve in Collier County. Variability in water quality caused by both seasonality and streamflow was compensated for by applying the nonparametric Seasonal Kendall trend test to unadjusted concentrations or flow-adjusted concentrations (residuals) determined from linear regression analysis. Concentrations of selected major inorganic constituents and physical characteristics; pH and dissolved oxygen; suspended sediment; nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon species; trace metals; and bacteriological and biological characteristics were determined at the Miami and Tamiami Canal stations. Median and maximum concentrations of selected constituents were compared to the Florida Class III freshwater standards for recreation, propagation, and maintenance of a healthy, well-balanced population of fish and wildlife. The median concentrations of the water-quality constituents and characteristics generally were higher at the Miami Canal station than at the Tamiami Canal station. The maximum value for specific conductance at the Miami Canal station exceeded the State standard. The median and maximum concentrations for ammonia at the Miami and Tamiami Canal stations exceeded the State standard, whereas median dissolved-oxygen concentrations at both stations were below the State standard. Trend results were indicative of either improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Improvement in water quality at the Miami Canal station was reflected by downward trends in suspended sediment (1987-94), turbidity, (1970-78), total ammonia (1971-94), total phosphorus (1987-94), barium (1978-94), iron (1969-94), and fecal coliform (1976-94). Deterioration in water quality at the same station was indicated by upward trends in specific conductance (1966-94), dissolved solids (1966-94, 1976-94, and 1987-94), chloride (1966-94), potassium (1966-94), magnesium (1966-94), sodium (1966-94), sulfate (1966-94), silica (1966-94), suspended sediment (1974-94), total organic carbon (1970-81), and fecal streptococcus (1987-94). The downward trend in pH (1966-94) was indicative of deterioration in water quality at the Miami Canal station. Improvement in water quality at the Tamiami Canal station was reflected by downward trends in fluoride (1967-93), total ammonia (1970-92), total nitrite plus nitrate (1975-85), and barium (1978-93). Deterioration in water quality at the same station was statistically significant by upward trends in specific conductance (1967-93), dissolved solids (1967-93), chloride (1967-93), sodium (1967-93), potassium (1967-93), magnesium (1967-93), strontium (1967-93), and suspended sediment (1976-93). The downward trend in dissolved oxygen (1970-93) was indicative of deterioration in water quality.

Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Connor, J. V.; Withington, Charles F.

1979-01-01

The year 1978 marked a downward trend in geoscience education. Lobbying for geoscience education should be encouraged. Among the year's developments were the publishing of textbooks on historical geology and geomorphology. (BB)

Long‐term trends in stream water and precipitation chemistry at five headwater basins in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.; Mast, M. Alisa

1999-01-01

Stream water data from five headwater basins in the northeastern United States covering water years 1968–1996 and precipitation data from eight nearby precipitation monitoring sites covering water years 1984‐1996 were analyzed for temporal trends in chemistry using the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Concentrations of SO4declined at three of five streams during 1968–1996 (p < 0.1), and all of the streams exhibited downward trends in SO4 over the second half of the period (1984–1996). Concentrations of SO4 in precipitation declined at seven of eight sites from 1984 to 1996, and the magnitudes of the declines (−0.7 to −2.0 µeq L−1 yr−1) generally were similar to those of stream water SO4. These results indicate that changes in precipitation SO4 were of sufficient magnitude to account for changes in stream water SO4. Concentrations of Ca + Mg declined at three of five streams and five of eight precipitation sites from 1984 to 1996. Precipitation acidity decreased at five of eight sites during the same period, but alkalinity increased in only one stream. In most cases the decreases in stream water SO4 were similar in magnitude to declines in stream water Ca + Mg, which is consistent with the theory of leaching by mobile acid anions in soils. In precipitation the magnitudes of SO4 declines were similar to those of hydrogen, and declines in Ca +Mg were much smaller. This indicates that recent decreases in SO4 deposition are now being reflected in reduced precipitation acidity. The lack of widespread increases in stream water alkalinity, despite the prevalence of downward trends in stream water SO4, suggests that at most sites, increases in stream water pH and acid‐neutralizing capacity may be delayed until higher soil base‐saturation levels are achieved.

Implications of the lack of global dimming and brightening in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, T.

2017-12-01

The global temperature trend of the last half-century is widely believed to be the result of two opposing effects; aerosol cooling and greenhouse gas (GHG) warming. While the radiative effect of increasing GHG concentrations is well-constrained, that due to anthropogenic aerosols is not, in part because observational constraints on the latter are lacking. However, long-term surface measurements of downward solar radiation (DSRS), an often-used proxy for aerosol radiative forcing, are available worldwide from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). We compare DSRS changes from 1,300 GEBA stations to those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, sampled only when/where observations are available. The observed DSRS shows a strong early (1964-1990) downward trend, followed by a weaker regional trend reversal. Regional emission data for aerosols and aerosol precursors suggest that the culprit for both features was changes to the atmospheric aerosol loading. In contrast, the models show weak or negligible DSRS trends, suggesting a too weak aerosol forcing. We present sensitivity studies with a single model (CESM1.2) that aim to simultaneously reproduce the observed trends in DSRS and surface temperature.

Water quality of Rhode Island streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, J.C.; Feiffer, J.S.

1986-01-01

Water quality data collected from November 1979 through September 1983 at five stream stations within Rhode Island and one in Massachusetts show that concentrations of the common constituents were low. Mean water hardness at all sites was in the ' soft ' category. Sodium concentrations were less than 20 mg/L at two sites and less than 35 mg/L at the other sites. Mean nitrogen values for the two Blackstone River sites were in the range that could cause undesirable growths of aquatic plants. Mean phosphorus values exceeded the recommended limits for protection of aquatic life at four sites. Trace-element concentrations in the water were generally low. Those trace elements which were found in concentrations near or exceeding any standard or criterion include cadmium, chromium, lead, iron, and manganese. High concentrations of several trace elements were found in the bottom materials at several sites. The bottom materials also contained pesticides and organic chemicals including aldrin, chlordane, DDD, DDE, DDT, dieldren, endosulfan , endrin, heptachlor, Mirex, and PCB. Results of trend analysis of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and specific conductance show a downward trend in phosphorus at two sites; an upward trend in nitrogen at one site; and one downward trend and one upward trend in specific conductance. (USGS)

Nutrient concentrations and loads in the northeastern United States - Status and trends, 1975-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trench, Elaine C. Todd; Moore, Richard B.; Ahearn, Elizabeth A.; Mullaney, John R.; Hickman, R. Edward; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) began regional studies in 2003 to synthesize information on nutrient concentrations, trends, stream loads, and sources. In the northeastern United States, a study area that extends from Maine to central Virginia, nutrient data were evaluated for 130 USGS water-quality monitoring stations. Nutrient data were analyzed for trends in flow-adjusted concentrations, modeled instream (non-flow-adjusted) concentrations, and stream loads for 32 stations with 22 to 29 years of water-quality and daily mean streamflow record during 1975-2003 (termed the long-term period), and for 46 stations during 1993-2003 (termed the recent period), by using a coupled statistical model of streamflow and water quality developed by the USGS. Recent trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of one or more nutrients also were analyzed for 90 stations by using Tobit regression. Annual stream nutrient loads were estimated, and annual nutrient yields were calculated, for 47 stations for the long-term and recent periods, and for 37 additional stations that did not have a complete streamflow and water-quality record for 1993-2003. Nutrient yield information was incorporated for 9 drainage basins evaluated in a national NAWQA study, for a total of 93 stations evaluated for nutrient yields. Long-term downward trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus (18 and 19 of 32 stations, respectively) indicate regional improvements in nutrient-related water-quality conditions. Most of the recent trends detected for total phosphorus were upward (17 of 83 stations), indicating possible reversals to the long-term improvements. Concentrations of nutrients in many streams persist at levels that are likely to affect aquatic habitat adversely and promote freshwater or coastal eutrophication. Recent trends for modeled instream concentrations, and modeled reference concentrations, were evaluated relative to ecoregion-based nutrient criteria proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Instream concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus persist at levels higher than proposed criteria at more than one-third and about one-half, respectively, of the 46 stations analyzed. Long-term trends in nutrient loads were primarily downward, with downward trends in total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads detected at 12 and 17 of 32 stations, respectively. Upward trends were rare, with one upward trend for total nitrogen loads and none for total phosphorus. Trends in loads of nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen included 7 upward and 8 downward trends among 32 stations. Downward trends in loads of ammonia nitrogen and total Kjeldahl nitrogen were detected at all six stations evaluated. Long-term downward trends detected in four of the five largest drainage basins evaluated include: total nitrogen loads for the Connecticut, Delaware, and James Rivers; total Kjeldahl nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen loads for the Susquehanna River; ammonia nitrogen and nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen loads for the James River; and total phosphorus loads for the Connecticut and Delaware Rivers. No trends in load were detected for the Potomac River. Nutrient yields were evaluated relative to the extent of land development in 93 drainage basins. The undeveloped land-use category included forested drainage basins with undeveloped land ranging from 75 to 100 percent of basin area. Median total nitrogen yields for the 27 undeveloped drainage basins evaluated, including 9 basins evaluated in a national NAWQA study, ranged from 290 to 4,800 pounds per square mile per year (lb/mi2/yr). Total nitrogen yields even in the most pristine drainage basins may be elevated relative to natural conditions, because of high rates of atmospheric deposition of nitrogen in parts of the northeastern United States. Median total phosphorus yields ranged from 12 to 330 lb/mi2/yr for the 26 undeveloped basins evaluated. The undeveloped category includes some large drainage basins with point-source discharges and small percentages of developed land; in these basins, streamflow from undeveloped headwater areas dilutes streamflow in more urbanized reaches, and dampens but does not eliminate the point-source "signal" of higher nutrient loads. Median total nitrogen yields generally do not exceed 1,700 lb/mi2/yr, and median total phosphorus yields generally do not exceed 100 lb/mi2/yr, in the drainage basins that are least affected by human land-use and waste-disposal practices. Agricultural and urban land use has increased nutrient yields substantially relative to undeveloped drainage basins. Median total nitrogen yields for 24 agricultural basins ranged from 1,700 to 26,000 lb/mi2/yr, and median total phosphorus yields ranged from 94 to 1,000 lb/mi2/yr. The maximum estimated total nitrogen and total phosphorus yields, 32,000 and 16,000 lb/mi2/yr, respectively, for all stations in the region were in small (less than 50 square miles (mi2)) agricultural drainage basins. Median total nitrogen yields ranged from 1,400 to 17,000 lb/mi2/yr in 26 urbanized drainage basins, and median total phosphorus yields ranged from 43 to 1,900 lb/mi2/yr. Urbanized drainage basins with the highest nutrient yields are generally small (less than 300 mi2) and are drained by streams that receive major point-source discharges. Instream nutrient loads were evaluated relative to loads from point-source discharges in four drainage basins: the Quinebaug River Basin in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island; the Raritan River Basin in New Jersey; the Patuxent River Basin in Maryland; and the James River Basin in Virginia. Long-term downward trends in nutrient loads, coupled with similar trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations, indicate long-term reductions in the delivery of most nutrients to these streams. However, the absence of recent downward trends in load for most nutrients, coupled with instream concentrations that exceed proposed nutrient criteria in several of these waste-receiving streams, indicates that challenges remain in reducing delivery of nutrients to streams from point sources. During dry years, the total nutrient load from point sources in some of the drainage basins approached or equaled the nutrient load transported by the stream.

Interannual variability in stratiform cloudiness and sea surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.; Leovy, Conway B.

1994-01-01

Marine stratiform cloudiness (MSC)(stratus, stratocumulus, and fog) is widespread over subtropical oceans west of the continents and over midlatitude oceans during summer, the season when MSC has maximum influence on surface downward radiation and is most influenced by boundary-layer processes. Long-term datasets of cloudiness and sea surface teperature (SST) from surface observations from 1952 to 1981 are used to examine interannual variations in MSC and SST. Linear correlations of anomalies in seasonal MSC amount with seasonal SST anomalies are negative and significant in midlatitude and eastern subtropical oceans, especially during summer. Significant negative correlations between SST and nimbostratus and nonprecipitating midlevel cloudiness are also observed at midlatitudes during summer, suggesting that summer storm tracks shift from year to year following year-to-year meridional shifts in the SST gradient. Over the 30-yr period, there are significant upward trends in MSC amount over the northern midlatitude oceans and a significant downward trend off the coast of California. The highest correlations and trends occur where gradients in MSC and SST are strongest. During summer, correlations between SST and MSC anomalies peak at zero lag in midlatitudes where warm advection prevails, but SST lags MSC in subtropical regions where cold advection predominates. This difference is attributed to a tendency for anomalies in latent heat flux to compensate anomalies in surface downward radiation in warm advection regions but not in cold advection regions.

Spatiotemporal changes of freezing/thawing indices and their response to recent climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tonghua; Qin, Yanhui; Wu, Xiaodong; Li, Ren; Zou, Defu; Xie, Changwei

2018-05-01

The spatial and temporal changes of the ground surface freezing indices (GFIs), ground surface thawing indices (GTIs), air freezing indices (AFIs), and air thawing indices (ATIs) in permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) were analyzed based on the daily ground surface and air temperatures from 69 meteorological stations using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimate. The spatial patterns of the freezing indices (FIs) and thawing indices (TIs) are nearly negatively correlated. On the annual scale, the GFI and GTI are greater than the AFI and ATI in both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions. The marked upward and downward trends have been observed for the time series of TI and FI, respectively, since 1998 on the QTP. Moreover, GFI and AFI decrease more significantly in permafrost regions than in seasonally frozen ground regions; the increasing rate of GTI and ATI in the seasonally frozen ground regions is greater than that in the permafrost regions. In permafrost regions, the downward trend of FI is greater than the upward trend of TI. However, the upward trend of TI shows a more drastic change than the FI in the seasonally frozen ground regions. The results indicate that the warming in the permafrost regions is more pronounced in winter than in the other seasons. The summer warming is more pronounced than the other seasons in the seasonally frozen ground regions. The decreasing rate of AFI and GFI increases as the altitude rises, while they decrease with increasing ATI. The average decreasing rate of GFI is greater than that of the AFI in different altitudinal zones. The greatest decrease of FI occurs in permafrost regions in the hinterland of the QTP, which indicates the dominant winter warming in this region. The downward trend of FI and upward trend of TI are responsible for the reported permafrost degradation on the QTP.

Trends in snowpack chemistry and comparison to National Atmospheric Deposition Program results for the Rocky Mountains, US, 1993-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ingersoll, G.P.; Mast, M.A.; Campbell, D.H.; Clow, D.W.; Nanus, L.; Turk, J.T.

2008-01-01

Seasonal snowpack chemistry data from the Rocky Mountain region of the US was examined to identify long-term trends in concentration and chemical deposition in snow and in snow-water equivalent. For the period 1993-2004, comparisons of trends were made between 54 Rocky Mountain Snowpack sites and 16 National Atmospheric Deposition Program wetfall sites located nearby in the region. The region was divided into three subregions: Northern, Central, and Southern. A non-parametric correlation method known as the Regional Kendall Test was used. This technique collectively computed the slope, direction, and probability of trend for several sites at once in each of the Northern, Central, and Southern Rockies subregions. Seasonal Kendall tests were used to evaluate trends at individual sites. Significant trends occurred during the period in wetfall and snowpack concentrations and deposition, and in precipitation. For the comparison, trends in concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate for the two networks were in fair agreement. In several cases, increases in ammonium and nitrate concentrations, and decreases in sulfate concentrations for both wetfall and snowpack were consistent in the three subregions. However, deposition patterns between wetfall and snowpack more often were opposite, particularly for ammonium and nitrate. Decreases in ammonium and nitrate deposition in wetfall in the central and southern rockies subregions mostly were moderately significant (p<0.11) in constrast to highly significant increases in snowpack (p<0.02). These opposite trends likely are explained by different rates of declining precipitation during the recent drought (1999-2004) and increasing concentration. Furthermore, dry deposition was an important factor in total deposition of nitrogen in the region. Sulfate deposition decreased with moderate to high significance in all three subregions in both wetfall and snowpack. Precipitation trends consistently were downward and significant for wetfall, snowpack, and snow-telemetry data for the central and southern rockies subregions (p<0.03), while no trends were noted for the Northern Rockies subregion.

Empirical Research on Ecological Development Level of Resource-based Industries-Base on the data of the Silk Road Economic Belt Core Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lei; Yan, Min

2017-11-01

Industrial ecology is the epitome of sustainable development in industry level, is one effective gateway to realizing green transformation. On the basis of industrial ecology development, including resource efficiency and environmental efficiency of ecological evaluation index system, this paper evaluates the level of industrial ecology development of resource-based industries in Xinjiang using entropy method. Research shows that the overall ecological development level of resource-based industries has remained at continuous improved trend with slow improvement in resource efficiency, and relative faster improvement in environmental efficiency. With economic development entering into the period of new normal at the end of the “twelfth five year plan”, the resource efficiency of ecological development of resource-based industries demonstrated a downward trend. The overall level of industrial ecology also faced with certain fluctuations, various ecological development level of resource-based industries also presented a downward trend. To promote ecological development of resource-based industries in Xinjiang, countermeasures and suggestions are initiated.

Northern spotted owl effectiveness monitoring plan for the Northwest Forest Plan.

Treesearch

Joseph Lint; Barry Noon; Robert Anthony; Eric Forsman; Martin Raphael; Michael Collopy; Edward. Starkey

1999-01-01

This report describes options for effectiveness monitoring of long-term status and trends of the northern spotted owl to evaluate the success of the Northwest Forest Plan in arresting downward population trends, and in maintaining and restoring the habitat conditions necessary to support viable owl populations on Federal lands. It describes options to address...

Temporal trends in water-quality constituent concentrations and annual loads of chemical constituents in Michigan watersheds, 1998–2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, Christopher J.; Fogarty, Lisa R.; Duris, Joseph W.

2018-02-21

In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program for select streams in the State of Michigan. Objectives of this program were to provide assistance with (1) statewide water-quality assessments, (2) the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permitting process, and (3) water-resource management decisions. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2013 were analyzed to identify potential trends for select constituents that were sampled. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 32 stations throughout Michigan. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using either the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test or through Tobit regression. In total, 79 trends were detected in the constituents analyzed for 32 river stations sampled for the study period—53 downward trends and 26 upward trends were detected. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the State was for ammonia, with 11 downward trends and 1 upward trend estimated.In addition to trends, constituent loads were estimated for 31 stations from 2002 to 2013 for stations that were sampled 12 times per year. Loads were computed using the Autobeale load computation program, which used the Beale ratio estimator approach to estimate an annual load. Constituent loads were the largest in large watershed streams with the highest annual flows such as the Saginaw and Grand Rivers. Likewise, constituent loads were the smallest in smaller tributaries that were sampled as part of this program such as the Boardman and Thunder Bay Rivers.

The human sex odds at birth after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities.

PubMed

Scherb, Hagen; Voigt, Kristina

2011-06-01

Ever since the discovery of the mutagenic properties of ionizing radiation, the possibility of birth sex odds shifts in exposed human populations was considered in the scientific community. Positive evidence, however weak, was obtained after the atomic bombing of Japan. We previously investigated trends in the sex odds before and after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident. In a pilot study, combined data from the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Norway, Poland, and Sweden between 1982 and 1992 showed a downward trend in the sex odds and a significant jump in 1987, the year immediately after Chernobyl. Moreover, a significant positive association of the sex odds between 1986 and 1991 with Chernobyl fallout at the district level in Germany was observed. Both of these findings, temporality (effect after exposure) and dose response association, yield evidence of causality. The primary aim of this study was to investigate longer time periods (1950-2007) in all of Europe and in the USA with emphasis on the global atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout and on the Chernobyl accident. To obtain further evidence, we also analyze sex odds data near nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland. DATA AND STATISTICAL METHODS: National gender-specific annual live births data for 39 European countries from 1975 to 2007 were compiled using the pertinent internet data bases provided by the World Health Organization, United Nations, Council of Europe, and EUROSTAT. For a synoptic re-analysis of the period 1950 to 1990, published data from the USA and from a predominantly western and less Chernobyl-exposed part of Europe were studied additionally. To assess spatial, temporal, as well as spatial-temporal trends in the sex odds and to investigate possible changes in those trends after the atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities, we applied ordinary linear logistic regression. Region-specific and eventually changing spatial-temporal trends were analyzed using dummy variables coding for continents, countries, districts, municipalities, time periods, and appropriate spatial-temporal interactions. The predominantly western European sex odds trend together with the US sex odds trend (1950-1990 each) show a similar behavior. Both trends are consistent with a uniform reduction from 1950 to 1964, an increase from 1964 to 1975 that may be associated with delayed global atomic bomb test fallout released prior to the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 and again a more or less constant decrease from 1975 to 1990. In practically all of Europe, including eastern European countries, from 1975 to 1986, and in the USA from 1975 to 2002, there were highly significant uniform downward trends in the sex odds with a reduction of 0.22% to 0.25% per 10 years. In contrast to the USA, in Europe there was a highly significant jump of the sex odds of 0.20% in the year 1987 following Chernobyl. From 1987 to 2000, the European sex odds trend reversed its sign and went upward, highly significantly so, with 0.42% per 10 years relative to the downward trend before Chernobyl. The global secular trend analyses are corroborated by the analysis of spatial-temporal sex odds trends near nuclear facilities (NF) in Germany and Switzerland. Within 35 km distance from those NF, the sex odds increase significantly in the range of 0.30% to 0.40% during NF operating time. The atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout affected the human sex odds at birth overall, and the Chernobyl fallout had a similar impact in Europe and parts of Asia. The birth sex odds near nuclear facilities are also distorted. The persistently disturbed secular human sex odds trends allow the estimation of the global deficit of births in the range of several millions.

Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

2013-12-01

ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the upstrean Hing-she station raise vivestok Sing-She stations are that ammonia on a upward trend, BOD5 no significant change in trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, river pollution index (RPI) a slight downward trend. Dong-gang River Basin , but the progress of sewer construction in slow. To reduce pollation in this river effort shoul be made regulatory reform on livestock waste control and acceleration of sewer construction. Keywords: quantile regression analysis, BOD5, RPI

Global sea turtle conservation successes

PubMed Central

Mazaris, Antonios D.; Schofield, Gail; Gkazinou, Chrysoula; Almpanidou, Vasiliki; Hays, Graeme C.

2017-01-01

We document a tendency for published estimates of population size in sea turtles to be increasing rather than decreasing across the globe. To examine the population status of the seven species of sea turtle globally, we obtained 299 time series of annual nesting abundance with a total of 4417 annual estimates. The time series ranged in length from 6 to 47 years (mean, 16.2 years). When levels of abundance were summed within regional management units (RMUs) for each species, there were upward trends in 12 RMUs versus downward trends in 5 RMUs. This prevalence of more upward than downward trends was also evident in the individual time series, where we found 95 significant increases in abundance and 35 significant decreases. Adding to this encouraging news for sea turtle conservation, we show that even small sea turtle populations have the capacity to recover, that is, Allee effects appear unimportant. Positive trends in abundance are likely linked to the effective protection of eggs and nesting females, as well as reduced bycatch. However, conservation concerns remain, such as the decline in leatherback turtles in the Eastern and Western Pacific. Furthermore, we also show that, often, time series are too short to identify trends in abundance. Our findings highlight the importance of continued conservation and monitoring efforts that underpin this global conservation success story. PMID:28948215

Assessment of the value of repeated point-prevalence surveys for analyzing the trend in nosocomial infections.

PubMed

Sartor, Catherine; Delchambre, Anne; Pascal, Laurence; Drancourt, Michel; De Micco, Philippe; Sambuc, Roland

2005-04-01

To assess the value of repeated point-prevalence surveys in measuring the trend in nosocomial infections after adjustment for case mix. A 3,500-bed teaching facility composed of 4 acute care hospitals. From May 1992 to June 1996, eight point-prevalence surveys of nosocomial infections were performed in the hospitals using a sampling process. The trend of adjusted nosocomial infection rates was studied for the four surveys that collected data on indwelling catheters. Adjusted rates were calculated using a logistic regression model and a direct standardization method. From 1992 to 1996, a total of 20,238 patients were included in the 8 point-prevalence surveys. The nosocomial infection rate decreased from 8.6% in 1992 to 5% in 1996 (P < .001). The analysis of adjusted nosocomial infection rates included 9,600 patients. Four independent risk factors were identified: length of stay greater than 12 days, hospitalization in an intensive care unit, presence of an indwelling urinary catheter, and history of a surgical procedure. After adjustment for case mix, the nosocomial infection rate still showed a downward trend (from 7.2% in 1993 to 5.1% in 1996; P = .02). Adjusted prevalence rates of nosocomial infections showed a significant downward trend during the period of this study.

Forty-year trends in the flux and concentration of phosphorus in British rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civan, Aylin; Worrall, Fred; Jarvie, Helen P.; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Burt, Tim P.

2018-03-01

Given the importance of phosphorus (P) in the eutrophication of natural waters, this study considered the long-term time series of total phosphorus (TP) and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in British rivers from 1974 to 2012. The approach included not only trend analysis of fluxes and concentrations but also change point analysis. TP and TRP concentrations and fluxes in British rivers have declined since the mid-1980s. Over the last decade of the record the majority of individual sites did show significant downward trends in TP and TRP concentrations but, in 28% of cases for TRP concentration and 14% of cases for TP concentration, the decadal trend was a significant increase. Out of 230 sites, 136 showed a significant step decrease in TRP concentration; no sites showed a significant step increase. The modal year for the step changes for both TRP concentration and flux was 1997. Step changes are likely associated with improvements made at sewage treatment works to comply with the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (91/271/EEC). The decrease in TRP concentration due to the step change were in the range of 0.68% and 89% with a geometric mean of 22%, with the rest of the decrease accounted by long-term, persistent downward trend.

Fire Prevention Efforts in the Northwest

Treesearch

A.W. Lindenmuth; J.J. Keetch

1952-01-01

The frequency of forest fires in 13 northeastern states dropped about one-half from 1943 to 1950, exclusive of the fluctuations due to weather. The average downward trend and the annual observations from which the trend is determined are shown graphically in the lower chart on the other side of this page. Each dot on the chart is the ratio of fire occurrence (actual...

Relationship between Student Loan Borrowing of Money and Degree Completion for Students at Two-Year Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Easttorp, Karl

2017-01-01

The cost of a college education continues to trend upward and state funding for higher education has trended downward, shifting more of the financial burden to students through student loans. About half of all 2010-2011 financial aid originated from student loans, and total federal student loan borrowing rose 319% between 1990 and 2010.…

Recent Trends in Burn Epidemiology Worldwide: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Smolle, Christian; Cambiaso-Daniel, Janos; Forbes, Abigail A.; Wurzer, Paul; Hundeshagen, Gabriel; Branski, Ludwik K.; Huss, Fredrik; Kamolz, Lars-Peter

2017-01-01

Burn injuries have been more prevalent among low socioeconomic populations and in less developed regions. Incredible advances in burn care and social development over the recent decades, however, should have placed the incidence and severity of burns in a downwards trend. The aim of this review was to give an overview on current trends in burn epidemiology across the world. Also the socioeconomic development in countries that have published epidemiological data used in this study has been taken into account when comparing the results. There was a worldwide downwards trend of burn incidence, burn severity, length of hospital stay, and mortality rate. These findings were particularly pronounced in very highly developed countries. Data from highly and medium developed countries were more heterogeneous. No studies could be obtained from low developed countries. Comparisons between the different studies were compromised by the fact that studies emerged from specialized facilities on one hand and general hospitals on the other. Analyzed studies were also frequently focusing on limited patient populations such as “children” or “elderly”. Our findings indicate the need for an international burn database with a minimal data-set in order to obtain objective and comparable results in respect of burn epidemiology. PMID:27600982

Mesosphere-Stratosphere Coupling: Implications for Climate Variability and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldwin, Mark P.

2004-01-01

A key aspect of this project is the establishment of a causal link from circulation anomalies in the lower mesosphere and stratopause region downward through the stratosphere to the troposphere. The observational link for stratospheric sudden warmings and surface climate is fairly clear. However, our understanding of the dynamics is incomplete. We have been making significant progress in the area of dynamical mechanisms by which circulation anomalies in the stratosphere affect the troposphere. We are trying to understand the details and sequence of events that occur when a middle atmosphere (wind) anomaly propagates downward to near the tropopause. The wind anomaly could be caused by a warming or solar variations in the low-latitude stratopause region, or could have other causes. The observations show a picture that is consistent with a circulation anomaly that descends to the tropopause region, and can be detected as low as the mid-troposphere. Processes near the stratopause in the tropics appear to be important precursors to the wintertime development of the northern polar vortex. This may affect significantly our understanding of the process by which low-latitude wind anomalies in the low mesosphere and upper stratosphere evolve through the winter and affect the polar vortex.

Warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yaojie; Zhang, Yangjian; Zhu, Juntao; Huang, Ke; Zu, Jiaxing; Chen, Ning; Cong, Nan; Stegehuis, Annemiek Irene

2018-03-01

As the recent global warming hiatus and the warming on high elevations are attracting worldwide attention, this study examined the robustness of the warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau (TP) and its related driving forces. By integrating multiple-source data from 1982 to 2015 and using trend analysis, we found that the mean temperature (T mean), maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (T min) showed a slowdown of the warming trend around 1998, during the period of the global warming hiatus. This was found over both the growing season (GS) and non-growing season (NGS) and suggested a robust warming hiatus over the TP. Due to the differences in trends of T max and T min, the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) also shifted after 1998, especially during the GS temperature. The warming rate was spatially heterogeneous. The northern TP (NTP) experienced more warming than the southern TP (STP) in all seasons from 1982 to 1998, while the pattern was reversed in the period from 1998 to 2015. Water vapour was found to be the main driving force for the trend in T mean and T min by influencing downward long wave radiation. Sunshine duration was the main driving force behind the trend in T max and DTR through a change in downward shortwave radiation that altered the energy source of daytime temperature. Water vapour was the major driving force for temperature change over the NTP, while over the STP, sunshine duration dominated the temperature trend.

Pollinators: Downward Trends and Lofty Goals

EPA Science Inventory

Pollinators are essential to natural and managed landscapes. By providing critical pollination services, bees, birds, beetles, butterflies, bats and other animals enhance biodiversity and contribute to production of many nutritious foods. Honey bees alone pollinate 90 commercia...

Drivers for spatial, temporal and long-term trends in atmospheric ammonia and ammonium in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yuk S.; Braban, Christine F.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Dore, Anthony J.; Simmons, Ivan; van Dijk, Netty; Poskitt, Janet; Dos Santos Pereira, Gloria; Keenan, Patrick O.; Conolly, Christopher; Vincent, Keith; Smith, Rognvald I.; Heal, Mathew R.; Sutton, Mark A.

2018-01-01

A unique long-term dataset from the UK National Ammonia Monitoring Network (NAMN) is used here to assess spatial, seasonal and long-term variability in atmospheric ammonia (NH3: 1998-2014) and particulate ammonium (NH4+: 1999-2014) across the UK. Extensive spatial heterogeneity in NH3 concentrations is observed, with lowest annual mean concentrations at remote sites (< 0.2 µg m-3) and highest in the areas with intensive agriculture (up to 22 µg m-3), while NH4+ concentrations show less spatial variability (e.g. range of 0.14 to 1.8 µg m-3 annual mean in 2005). Temporally, NH3 concentrations are influenced by environmental conditions and local emission sources. In particular, peak NH3 concentrations are observed in summer at background sites (defined by 5 km grid average NH3 emissions < 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and in areas dominated by sheep farming, driven by increased volatilization of NH3 in warmer summer temperatures. In areas where cattle, pig and poultry farming is dominant, the largest NH3 concentrations are in spring and autumn, matching periods of manure application to fields. By contrast, peak concentrations of NH4+ aerosol occur in spring, associated with long-range transboundary sources. An estimated decrease in NH3 emissions by 16 % between 1998 and 2014 was reported by the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Annually averaged NH3 data from NAMN sites operational over the same period (n = 59) show an indicative downward trend, although the reduction in NH3 concentrations is smaller and non-significant: Mann-Kendall (MK), -6.3 %; linear regression (LR), -3.1 %. In areas dominated by pig and poultry farming, a significant reduction in NH3 concentrations between 1998 and 2014 (MK: -22 %; LR: -21 %, annually averaged NH3) is consistent with, but not as large as the decrease in estimated NH3 emissions from this sector over the same period (-39 %). By contrast, in cattle-dominated areas there is a slight upward trend (non-significant) in NH3 concentrations (MK: +12 %; LR: +3.6 %, annually averaged NH3), despite the estimated decline in NH3 emissions from this sector since 1998 (-11 %). At background and sheep-dominated sites, NH3 concentrations increased over the monitoring period. These increases (non-significant) at background (MK: +17 %; LR: +13 %, annually averaged data) and sheep-dominated sites (MK: +15 %; LR: +19 %, annually averaged data) would be consistent with the concomitant reduction in SO2 emissions over the same period, leading to a longer atmospheric lifetime of NH3, thereby increasing NH3 concentrations in remote areas. The observations for NH3 concentrations not decreasing as fast as estimated emission trends are consistent with a larger downward trend in annual particulate NH4+ concentrations (1999-2014: MK: -47 %; LR: -49 %, p < 0.01, n = 23), associated with a lower formation of particulate NH4+ in the atmosphere from gas phase NH3.

Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment.

PubMed

Jamieson, Kathleen Hall; Hardy, Bruce W

2014-09-16

This work argues that, in a polarized environment, scientists can minimize the likelihood that the audience's biased processing will lead to rejection of their message if they not only eschew advocacy but also, convey that they are sharers of knowledge faithful to science's way of knowing and respectful of the audience's intelligence; the sources on which they rely are well-regarded by both conservatives and liberals; and the message explains how the scientist arrived at the offered conclusion, is conveyed in a visual form that involves the audience in drawing its own conclusions, and capsulizes key inferences in an illustrative analogy. A pilot experiment raises the possibility that such a leveraging-involving-visualizing-analogizing message structure can increase acceptance of the scientific claims about the downward cross-decade trend in Arctic sea ice extent and elicit inferences consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change among conservatives exposed to misleadingly selective data in a partisan news source.

Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment

PubMed Central

Hall Jamieson, Kathleen; Hardy, Bruce W.

2014-01-01

This work argues that, in a polarized environment, scientists can minimize the likelihood that the audience’s biased processing will lead to rejection of their message if they not only eschew advocacy but also, convey that they are sharers of knowledge faithful to science’s way of knowing and respectful of the audience’s intelligence; the sources on which they rely are well-regarded by both conservatives and liberals; and the message explains how the scientist arrived at the offered conclusion, is conveyed in a visual form that involves the audience in drawing its own conclusions, and capsulizes key inferences in an illustrative analogy. A pilot experiment raises the possibility that such a leveraging–involving–visualizing–analogizing message structure can increase acceptance of the scientific claims about the downward cross-decade trend in Arctic sea ice extent and elicit inferences consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change among conservatives exposed to misleadingly selective data in a partisan news source. PMID:25225380

Trends in salaries of obstetrics-gynecology faculty, 2000-01 to 2008-09.

PubMed

Rayburn, William F; Fullilove, Anne M; Scroggs, James A; Schrader, Ronald M

2011-01-01

We sought to determine whether downward trends in inflation-adjusted salaries (1989-99) continued for obstetrics and gynecology faculty. Data were gathered from the Faculty Salary Survey from the Association of American Medical Colleges for academic years 2001 through 2009. We compared median physician salaries adjusted for inflation according to rank and specialty. While faculty compensation increased by 24.8% (2.5% annually), change in salaries was comparable to the cumulative inflation rate (21.3%). Salaries were consistently highest among faculty in gynecologic oncology (P < .001), next highest among maternal-fetal medicine specialists (P < .001), and were not significantly different between general obstetrics-gynecology and reproductive-endocrinology-infertility. Inflation-adjusted growth of salaries in general obstetrics-gynecology was not significantly different from that in general internal medicine and pediatrics. Growth in salaries of physician faculty in obstetrics and gynecology increased from 2000-01 through 2008-09 with real purchasing power keeping pace with inflation. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Changing regional emissions of airborne pollutants reflected in the chemistry of snowpacks and wetfall in the Rocky Mountain region, USA, 1993–2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ingersoll, George P.; Miller, Debra C.; Morris, Kristi H.; McMurray, Jill A.; Port, Garrett M.; Caruso, Brian

2016-01-01

Wintertime precipitation sample data from 55 Snowpack sites and 17 National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP)/National Trends Network Wetfall sites in the Rocky Mountain region were examined to identify long-term trends in chemical concentration, deposition, and precipitation using Regional and Seasonal Kendall tests. The Natural Resources Conservation Service snow-telemetry (SNOTEL) network provided snow-water-equivalent data from 33 sites located near Snowpack- and NADP Wetfall-sampling sites for further comparisons. Concentration and deposition of ammonium, calcium, nitrate, and sulfate were tested for trends for the period 1993–2012. Precipitation trends were compared between the three monitoring networks for the winter seasons and downward trends were observed for both Snowpack and SNOTEL networks, but not for the NADP Wetfall network. The dry-deposition fraction of total atmospheric deposition, relative to wet deposition, was shown to be considerable in the region. Potential sources of regional airborne pollutant emissions were identified from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2011 National Emissions Inventory, and from long-term emissions data for the period 1996–2013. Changes in the emissions of ammonia, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide were reflected in significant trends in snowpack and wetfall chemistry. In general, ammonia emissions in the western USA showed a gradual increase over the past decade, while ammonium concentrations and deposition in snowpacks and wetfall showed upward trends. Emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide declined while regional trends in snowpack and wetfall concentrations and deposition of nitrate and sulfate were downward.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975-2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Solbraa, Ane Kristiansen; Holme, Ingar Morten; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Resaland, Geir Kåre; Aadland, Eivind; Anderssen, Sigmund Alfred

2014-06-07

Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975-2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975–2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Methods Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975–2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Results Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Conclusions Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP. PMID:24906521

Trends of Science Ability in the National Assessment of Educational Achievement (NAEA) of Korean Ninth Graders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Hyun-Kyung; Lee, Dong-Heon; Kim, Soojin

2016-01-01

The results of the National Assessment of Educational Achievement from 2010 to 2013 have shown a downward trend in ninth graders' science average achievement scores from 2011 to 2013. The percentage of students in the Advanced level decreased dramatically from 19.95% in 2010 to 11.48% in 2013, while the percentage of students in the Basic level…

7 CFR 989.167 - Disposal of reserve raisins.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... respect to any varietal type of raisins, that a downward trend in the price received by producers for free... pallets used in the transfer to the handler from whom the raisins were transferred within 10 business days...

7 CFR 989.67 - Disposal of reserve raisins.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... raisins during the preceding crop year of all handlers in business at the time the offer is made. (3) With... other factors have caused a downward trend in the prices received by producers for free tonnage raisins...

7 CFR 989.167 - Disposal of reserve raisins.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... respect to any varietal type of raisins, that a downward trend in the price received by producers for free... pallets used in the transfer to the handler from whom the raisins were transferred within 10 business days...

Sea Ice Prediction Has Easy and Difficult Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Cutler, Matthew; Kay, Jennifer; Meier, Walter N.; Stroeve, Julienne; Wiggins, Helen

2014-01-01

Arctic sea ice follows an annual cycle, reaching its low point in September each year. The extent of sea ice remaining at this low point has been trending downwards for decades as the Arctic warms. Around the long-term downward trend, however, there is significant variation in the minimum extent from one year to the next. Accurate forecasts of yearly conditions would have great value to Arctic residents, shipping companies, and other stakeholders and are the subject of much current research. Since 2008 the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook) organized by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program) has invited predictions of the September Arctic sea ice minimum extent, which are contributed from the Arctic research community. Individual predictions, based on a variety of approaches, are solicited in three cycles each year in early June, July, and August. (SEARCH 2013).

[Study on elasticity of medical service demand at the township level in China].

PubMed

Shi, Hong-xing; Lv, Jun; Xie, Yi-ping; Wang, Ying; Jia, Jin-zhong; Chang, Feng-shui; Duan, Lin; Sun, Mei; Wang, Zhi-feng; Hao, Mo

2010-06-18

To find out the economic laws regulating medical service demand in accordance with influencing factors at the township level, thus to provide references for further adjusting the medical service demand reasonably in the future. The model of medical service demand was established to measure the elasticity of demand in 49 township health clinics in 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007. The price elasticity of outpatient and inpatient demand was stable during the four periods, and the average value was -0.029 and -0.132 respectively; the average value of income elasticity was 0.973 and 0.977, registering a downward trend in general. The medical service demand at the township level is price inelastic, indicating that it is a necessity for rural residents. The downward trend of income elasticity under the influence of some health policies illustrates a lightening in economic burden for medical service demand among rural residents in township health clinics.

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, Marina; Luo, Huiying; Rao, S. Trivikrama; Hogrefe, Christian; Mathur, Rohit; Kumar, Naresh

2017-09-01

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May-September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990-2000), the simulated and observed regional average trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000-2010 period, all observed trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed downward trend in the Southwest and Midwest but under-predicts the downward trends in observations for the other regions. Observational analysis reveals that it is the magnitude of the long-term forcing that dictates the maximum ozone exceedance potential; there is a strong linear relationship between the long-term forcing and the 4th highest or the average of the top10 ozone concentrations in both observations and model output. This finding indicates that improving the model's ability to reproduce the long-term component will also enable better simulation of ozone extreme values that are of interest to regulatory agencies.

Trends in Hospitalization and Mortality Rates Due to Acute Cardiovascular Disease in Castile and León, 2001 to 2015.

PubMed

López-Messa, Juan B; Andrés-de Llano, Jesús M; López-Fernández, Laura; García-Cruces, Jesús; García-Crespo, Julio; Prieto González, Miryam

2018-02-01

To analyze hospitalization and mortality rates due to acute cardiovascular disease (ACVD). We conducted a cross-sectional study of the hospital discharge database of Castile and León from 2001 to 2015, selecting patients with a principal discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), unstable angina, heart failure, or acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Trends in the rates of hospitalization/100 000 inhabitants/y and hospital mortality/1000 hospitalizations/y, overall and by sex, were studied by joinpoint regression analysis. A total of 239 586 ACVD cases (AMI 55 004; unstable angina 15 406; heart failure 111 647; AIS 57 529) were studied. The following statistically significant trends were observed: hospitalization: ACVD, upward from 2001 to 2007 (5.14; 95%CI, 3.5-6.8; P < .005), downward from 2011 to 2015 (3.7; 95%CI, 1.0-6.4; P < .05); unstable angina, downward from 2001 to 2010 (-12.73; 95%CI, -14.8 to -10.6; P < .05); AMI, upward from 2001 to 2003 (15.6; 95%CI, 3.8-28.9; P < .05), downward from 2003 to 2015 (-1.20; 95%CI, -1.8 to -0.6; P < .05); heart failure, upward from 2001 to 2007 (10.70; 95%CI, 8.7-12.8; P < .05), upward from 2007 to 2015 (1.10; 95%CI, 0.1-2.1; P < .05); AIS, upward from 2001 to 2007 (4.44; 95%CI, 2.9-6.0; P < .05). Mortality rates: downward from 2001 to 2015 in ACVD (-1.16; 95%CI, -2.1 to -0.2; P < .05), AMI (-3.37, 95%CI, -4.4 to -2, 3, P < .05), heart failure (-1.25; 95%CI, -2.3 to -0.1; P < .05) and AIS (-1.78; 95%CI, -2.9 to -0.6; P < .05); unstable angina, upward from 2001 to 2007 (24.73; 95%CI, 14.2-36.2; P < .05). The ACVD analyzed showed a rising trend in hospitalization rates from 2001 to 2015, which was especially marked for heart failure, and a decreasing trend in hospital mortality rates, which were similar in men and women. These data point to a stabilization and a decline in hospital mortality, attributable to established prevention measures. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Water-quality trends in the Scituate reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island, 1983-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Kirk P.

2015-01-01

Upward trends in pH were identified for nearly half of the monitoring stations for WYs 1983-2012 and may reflect regional reductions in acid precipitation. Many upward trends in alkalinity also were identified for both the WYs 1983-2012 and for WYs 2003-12 periods and are likely related to the natural weathering of structures containing concrete or, in some cases, the application of lime or fertilizers on agriculture lands. Significant trends in chloride concentrations at most stations during WYs 1983-2012 were upward; however, results for WYs 2003-12 substantiate few significant upward trends and, in a few cases, downward trends were identified in several tributary drainage areas.

Mortality from cystic fibrosis in Europe: 1994-2010.

PubMed

Quintana-Gallego, Esther; Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel; Delgado-Pecellin, Isabel; Calero, Carmen; Soriano, Joan B; Lopez-Campos, Jose Luis

2016-02-01

To date, available mortality trends due to cystic fibrosis (CF) have been limited to the analysis of certain countries in different parts of the world showing that mortality trends have been constantly decreasing. However, no studies have examined Europe as a whole. The present study aims to analyze CF mortality trends by gender within the European Union (EU) and to quantify potential years of life lost (PYLL). Deaths from the 27 EU countries were obtained from the statistical office of the EU from the years 1994-2010. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASR) were estimated for women and men using the standard European population, expressed in deaths per 1,000,000 persons. The PYLL from ages 0 up to 30 years were estimated. Trends were studied by a joinpoint regression analysis. During the study period, 5,130 deaths (2,443 in males and 2,687 in females) were identified. Females had a slightly higher mortality rate than males, with a downward trend observed for both genders. In males, the ASR changed from 1.34 in 1994 to 1.03 in 2010. In females, the ASR changed from 1.42 in 1994 to 0.92 in 2010. The mean age at death and PYLL increased for both genders. The joinpoint analysis did not identify any significant joinpoint for either gender for ASR or PYLL. Our data suggest a continued downward trend of CF mortality throughout the EU, with differences by country and gender. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001-2014.

PubMed

Souza, Eliana Amorim de; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8-1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9-4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3-6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1-4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females.

Trends in hydrophobic organic contaminants in urban and reference lake sediments across the United States, 1970-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Metre, P.C.; Mahler, B.J.

2005-01-01

A shift in national policy toward stronger environmental protection began in the United States in about 1970. Conversely, urban land use, population, energy consumption, and vehicle use have increased greatly since then. To assess the effects of these changes on water quality, the U.S. Geological Survey used sediment cores to reconstruct water-quality histories for38 urban and reference lakes across the United States. Cores were age-dated, and concentration profiles of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and chlorinated hydrocarbons were tested statistically. Significant trends in total DDT, p,p???-DDE, and total PCBs were all downward. Trends in chlordane were split evenly between upward and downward, and trends in PAHs were mostly upward. Significant trends did not occur in about one-half of cases tested. Concentrations of p,p???-DDE, p,p???-DDD, and PCBs were about one-half as likely to exceed the probable effect concentration (PEC), a sediment quality guideline, in sediments deposited in the 1990s as in 1965-1975, whereas PAHs were twice as likely to exceed the PEC in the more recently deposited sediments. Concentrations of all contaminants evaluated correlated strongly with urban land use. Upward trends in PAH concentrations, the strong association of PAH with urban settings, and rapid urbanization occurring in the United States suggest that PAHs could surpass chlorinated hydrocarbons in the threat they pose to aquatic biota in urban streams and lakes.

Occurrence of and trends in selected sediment-associated contaminants in Caddo Lake, East Texas, 1940-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Jennifer T.

2003-01-01

Bottom-sediment cores were collected from four sites in Caddo Lake in East Texas during May 2002 for analyses of radionuclides (for age dating), organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and major and trace elements, and to describe the occurrence and trends of these sediment-associated contaminants. The Goose Prairie Creek and Harrison Bayou sites receive drainage from an area that includes parts of the now-closed Longhorn Army Ammunitions Plant. The mid-lake site is relatively close to dense oil and gas operations in the lake. The Carter Lake site receives minimal discharge from developed areas. Sediment age (deposition) dates represented in the cores ranged from 1940 to 2002. The only organochlorine compounds detected in all core samples were the DDT degradation products DDE or DDD, and PCB Aroclors 1242, 1254, and 1260 were detected only at the Goose Prairie Creek site. One or more of the DDE concentrations at all sites exceeded a consensus-based threshold effect concentration (on benthic biota), but none exceeded a consensus-based probable effect concentration. The Goose Prairie Creek site had significant downward trends in concentrations of organochlorine compounds, except for no trend in DDE concentrations. The Ammunitions Plant is a possible historical source of the few organochlorine compounds detected at the Goose Prairie Creek and Harrison Bayou sites. PAH concentrations at all sites were below respective threshold effect concentrations. Highest PAH concentrations at all four sites were of C2- alkylated naphthalenes. Nearly all statistically significant PAH trends in the cores were downward. On the basis of PAH source-indicator ratios, the majority of PAH compounds appear to have originated from uncombusted sources such as leaks or spills from oil and gas operations or vehicles (automobiles, boats, aircraft) in the Caddo Lake area. Concentrations of several of the eight trace elements with threshold effect concentrations and probable effect concentrations (among 26 analyzed) were above the respective threshold effect concentrations, but all, except one lead concentration at the Goose Prairie Creek site (deposited about 1961), were below respective probable effect concentrations. Among trace element concentrations at the four sites, lead and mercury were consistently relatively high at the Goose Prairie Creek site. Again the Ammunitions Plant, because of its proximity and history of industrial activities, is the suspected primary source. Statistically significant trends in trace element concentrations were mixed, but more were downward than upward. Computations to indicate the dominant source (atmospheric fallout or drainage area) of mercury to the Caddo Lake sediment core sites (except Carter Lake) indicate that about one-third of the mercury at the Goose Prairie Creek site might result from drainage area sources. No drainage area sources were indicated for the Harrison Bayou and mid-lake sites. Arsenic, cadmium, and zinc concentrations were highest at the Carter Lake site. No relation between the relatively higher trace element concentrations and any potential source of contamination in the Carter Lake drainage area (for example, oil and gas operations, a road, a boat ramp) is indicated.

Empirical analyses on the development trend of non-ferrous metal industry under China’s new normal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C. X.; Liu, C. X.; Zhang, Q. L.

2017-08-01

The CGE model of Yunnan’s macro economy was constructed based on the input-output data of Yunnan in 2012, and the development trend of the non-ferrous metals industry (NMI) under the China’s new normal was simulated. In view of this, according to different expected economic growth, and optimized economic structure, the impact on development of Yunnan NMI was simulated. The results show that the NMI growth rate is expected to decline when the economic growth show a downward trend, but the change of the proportion is relatively small. Moreover, the structure in proportion was adjusted to realize the economic structure optimization, while the proportion of NMI in GDP will decline. In contrast, the biggest influence on the NMI is the change of economic structure. From the statistics of last two years, we can see that NMI is growing, and at the same time, its proportion is declining, which is consistent with the results of simulation. But the adjustment of economic structure will take a long time. It is need to improve the proportion of deep-processing industry, extend the industrial chain, enhance the value chain, so as to be made good use of resource advantage.

Impact of Educational Attainment on Marital Stability among Married Persons in Imo State, Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ojukwu, M. O.; Woko, S. I.; Onuoha, R. C.

2016-01-01

It has been revealed that recently there appear to be a kind of downward trend in marriage patronage in our society. The trend is prevalent in both western and non-western culture. Also, in the recent decade there seems to be a cut down in the interest of young people willing to go into marriage. This is as a result of the dwindling credibility…

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: the urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out.

PubMed

Kimani-Murage, E W; Fotso, J C; Egondi, T; Abuya, B; Elungata, P; Ziraba, A K; Kabiru, C W; Madise, N

2014-09-01

We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban-rural and intra-urban differentials. We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban-rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Edentulism trends among middle-aged and older adults in the United States: comparison of five racial/ethnic groups.

PubMed

Wu, Bei; Liang, Jersey; Plassman, Brenda L; Remle, Corey; Luo, Xiao

2012-04-01

This study examined edentulism trends among adults aged 50 and above in five ethnic groups in the United States: Asians, African Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans, and non-Hispanic Caucasians. Data came from the National Health Interview Surveys between 1999 and 2008. Respondents included 616 Native Americans, 2,666 Asians, 15,295 African Americans, 13,068 Hispanics, and 86,755 Caucasians. In 2008, Native Americans had the highest predicated rate of edentulism (23.98%), followed by African Americans (19.39%), Caucasians (16.90%), Asians (14.22%), and Hispanics (14.18%). Overall, there was a significant downward trend in edentulism rates between 1999 and 2008 (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96, 0.98). However, compared with Caucasians, Native Americans showed a significantly less decline of edentulism during this period (OR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.19). While there was a downward trend in edentulism between 1999 and 2008, significant variations existed across racial/ethnic groups. Innovative public health programs and services are essential to prevent oral health diseases and conditions for minority populations who lack access to adequate dental care. Additionally, given the increasing numbers of adults retaining their natural teeth, interventions designed to assist individuals in maintaining healthy teeth becomes more critical. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Recent trends in burn epidemiology worldwide: A systematic review.

PubMed

Smolle, Christian; Cambiaso-Daniel, Janos; Forbes, Abigail A; Wurzer, Paul; Hundeshagen, Gabriel; Branski, Ludwik K; Huss, Fredrik; Kamolz, Lars-Peter

2017-03-01

Burns have been more prevalent among low socioeconomic populations and in less developed regions. Incredible advances in burn care and social development over the recent decades, however, should have placed the incidence and severity of burns in a downwards trend. The aim of this review was to give an overview on current trends in burn epidemiology across the world. Also the socioeconomic development in countries that have published epidemiological data used in this study has been taken into account when comparing the results. There was a worldwide downwards trend of burn incidence, burn severity, length of hospital stay, and mortality rate. These findings were particularly pronounced in very highly developed countries. Data from highly and medium developed countries were more heterogeneous. No studies could be obtained from low and middle income countries. Comparisons between the different studies were compromised by the fact that studies emerged from specialized facilities on one hand and general hospitals on the other. Analyzed studies were also frequently focusing on limited patient populations such as "children" or "elderly". Our findings indicate the need for an international burn database with a minimal data-set in order to obtain objective and comparable results in respect of burn epidemiology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

An exotic long-term pattern in stock price dynamics.

PubMed

Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2012-01-01

To accurately predict the movement of stock prices is always of both academic importance and practical value. So far, a lot of research has been reported to help understand the behavior of stock prices. However, some of the existing theories tend to render us the belief that the time series of stock prices are unpredictable on a long-term timescale. The question arises whether the long-term predictability exists in stock price dynamics. In this work, we analyze the price reversals in the US stock market and the Chinese stock market on the basis of a renormalization method. The price reversals are divided into two types: retracements (the downward trends after upward trends) and rebounds (the upward trends after downward trends), of which the intensities are described by dimensionless quantities, R(t) and R(b), respectively. We reveal that for both mature and emerging markets, the distribution of either retracements R(t) or rebounds R(b) shows two characteristic values, 0.335 and 0.665, both of which are robust over the long term. The methodology presented here provides a way to quantify the stock price reversals. Our findings strongly support the existence of the long-term predictability in stock price dynamics, and may offer a hint on how to predict the long-term movement of stock prices.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: The urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out

PubMed Central

Kimani-Murage, E.W.; Fotso, J.C.; Egondi, T.; Abuya, B.; Elungata, P.; Ziraba, A.K.; Kabiru, C.W.; Madise, N.

2014-01-01

Background We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban–rural and intra-urban differentials. Methods We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Results Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban–rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. Conclusions The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. PMID:25024120

Human sensitivity to vertical self-motion.

PubMed

Nesti, Alessandro; Barnett-Cowan, Michael; Macneilage, Paul R; Bülthoff, Heinrich H

2014-01-01

Perceiving vertical self-motion is crucial for maintaining balance as well as for controlling an aircraft. Whereas heave absolute thresholds have been exhaustively studied, little work has been done in investigating how vertical sensitivity depends on motion intensity (i.e., differential thresholds). Here we measure human sensitivity for 1-Hz sinusoidal accelerations for 10 participants in darkness. Absolute and differential thresholds are measured for upward and downward translations independently at 5 different peak amplitudes ranging from 0 to 2 m/s(2). Overall vertical differential thresholds are higher than horizontal differential thresholds found in the literature. Psychometric functions are fit in linear and logarithmic space, with goodness of fit being similar in both cases. Differential thresholds are higher for upward as compared to downward motion and increase with stimulus intensity following a trend best described by two power laws. The power laws' exponents of 0.60 and 0.42 for upward and downward motion, respectively, deviate from Weber's Law in that thresholds increase less than expected at high stimulus intensity. We speculate that increased sensitivity at high accelerations and greater sensitivity to downward than upward self-motion may reflect adaptations to avoid falling.

Trends in Streamflow and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Concentrations and Loads in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes River Basins, 1975-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, David L.; Robertson, Dale M.; Hall, David W.; Saad, David A.

2009-01-01

Many actions have been taken to reduce nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and the amount of nutrients and sediment transported in streams as a result of the Clean Water Act and subsequent regulations. This report assesses how nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in selected streams have changed during recent years to determine if these actions have been successful. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in concentrations and trends in loads from 1993 to 2004 were computed for total nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, total suspended material (total suspended solids or suspended sediment), and total suspended sediment for 49 sites in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes Basins. Changes in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended-material loads were examined from 1975 to 2003 at six sites to provide a longer term context for the data examined from 1993 to 2004. Flow-adjusted trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 19 of 24 sites showed tendency toward increasing concentrations, and overall trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 16 of the 24 sites showed a general tendency toward increasing concentrations. The trends in these flow-adjusted total nitrogen concentrations are related to the changes in fertilizer nitrogen applications. Flow-adjusted trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations from 1993 to 2004 showed a widespread tendency toward decreasing concentrations. The widespread, downward trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations indicate that some of the ammonia reduction goals of the Clean Water Act are being met. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in total organic plus ammonia nitrogen concentrations from 1993 to 2004 did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations from 1993 to 2004 also did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations were upward at 24 of 40 sites. Overall trends in total phosphorus concentrations were mixed and showed no spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved phosphorus concentrations were consistently downward at all of the sites in the eastern part of the basins studied. The reduction in phosphorus fertilizer use and manure production east of the Mississippi River could explain most of the observed trends in dissolved phosphorus. Flow-adjusted trends in total suspended-material concentrations showed distinct spatial patterns of increasing tendencies throughout the western part of the basins studied and in Illinois and decreasing concentrations throughout most of Wisconsin, Iowa, and in the eastern part of the basins studied. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus were strongly related to the flow-adjusted trends in suspended materials. The trends in the flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations from 1993 to 2004 resembled those for suspended materials. The long-term, nonmonotonic trends in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended-material loads for 1975 to 2003 were described by local regression, LOESS, smoothing for six sites. The statistical significance of those trends cannot be determined; however, the long-term changes found for annual streamflow and load data indicate that the monotonic trends from 1993 to 2004 should not be extrapolated backward in time.

Streamflow and water-quality trends of the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, northern and central New Mexico, water years 1985 to 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langman, Jeff B.; Nolan, Emma O.

2005-01-01

The City of Albuquerque plans to divert San Juan-Chama Project water from the Rio Grande for potable water use. This report examines streamflow and water-quality trends in the Rio Chama and the Rio Grande for water years 1985 to 2002 following the implementation of reservoir storage agreements in northern and central New Mexico. Streamflow/water-quality stations used for this study include the Rio Grande stations of Taos, Otowi, San Felipe, and Albuquerque and the Rio Chama station of Chamita. Water years 1985 to 2002 were a period of larger than average precipitation and streamflow compared to the stations. historical averages. Annual precipitation and streamflow trended downward during the study period because of a drought during 1999 to 2002. Streamflow in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande was divided into three distinct seasonal periods that corresponded to natural and anthropogenic influences: fall/winter baseflow (November through February), snowmelt runoff (March through June), and the irrigation/monsoon (July through October) seasons. A calcium bicarbonate water type was evident at all study area stations on the Rio Chama and Rio Grande. Specific conductance increased downstream, but alkalinity and pH did not substantially change in the downstream direction. Nearly all nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations were less than 1 milligram per liter for all stations. Median trace-element concentrations and maximum radionuclide concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Anthropogenic compounds were infrequently detected in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, and concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Water quality in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande varied spatially and temporally during water years 1985 to 2002. Specific conductance increased downstream in the Rio Grande during the fall/winter baseflow and snowmelt runoff seasons but was similar at the Taos, Otowi, and San Felipe stations during the irrigation/monsoon season. This similarity was a result of the release of stored water from Abiquiu Reservoir and Cochiti Lake, which masked the natural influences that increased specific conductance in the downstream direction during the other seasons. During all seasons, pH decreased and major ion concentrations remained stable at the Albuquerque station compared with the San Felipe station, but no single influence could be identified that caused these conditions. Manganese and uranium concentrations at the Otowi and San Felipe stations were largest during the fall/winter baseflow and smallest during the snowmelt runoff, indicating that ground-water inflows likely influenced these concentrations. Water-quality temporal trends were evaluated for selected constituents during the study period and during the individual seasons. Downward trends in major ion concentrations were similar in magnitude at the Taos and Otowi stations, indicating that an upstream influence and (or) the downward trend in annual precipitation was the main reason(s) for these trends. The stations most affected by reservoirs, Chamita and San Felipe, were the only stations at which downward trends in major ions were apparent for flow-adjusted concentrations but not for seasonally correlated low-adjusted concentrations, which indicates fewer seasonal differences at these stations due to reservoir operations.

Body and diet composition of sympatric black and grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Charles C.; Fortin, Jennifer K.; Teisberg, Justin E.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Servheen, Christopher; Robbins, Charles T.; van Manen, Frank T.

2013-01-01

The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has experienced changes in the distribution and availability of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) food resources in recent decades. The decline of ungulates, fish, and whitebark pine seeds (Pinus albicaulis) has prompted questions regarding their ability to adapt. We examined body composition and diet of grizzly bears using bioelectrical impedance and stable isotopes to determine if 1) we can detect a change in diet quality associated with the decline in either ungulates or whitebark pine, and 2) the combined decline in ungulates, fish, and pine seeds resulted in a change in grizzly bear carrying capacity in the GYE. We contrasted body fat and mass in grizzly bears with a potential competitor, the American black bear (Ursus americanus), to address these questions. Grizzly bears assimilated more meat into their diet and were in better body condition than black bears throughout the study period, indicating the decline in ungulate resources did not affect grizzly bears more than black bears. We also found no difference in autumn fat levels in grizzly bears in years of good or poor pine seed production, and stable isotope analyses revealed this was primarily a function of switching to meat resources during poor seed-producing years. This dietary plasticity was consistent over the course of our study. We did not detect an overall downward trend in either body mass or the fraction of meat assimilated into the diet by grizzly bears over the past decade, but we did detect a downward trend in percent body fat in adult female grizzly bears after 2006. Whether this decline is an artifact of small sample size or due to the population reaching the ecological carrying capacity of the Yellowstone ecosystem warrants further investigation.

The auroral current circuit and field-aligned currents observed by FAST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elphic, R. C.; Bonnell, J. W.; Strangeway, R. J.; Kepko, L.; Ergun, R. E.; McFadden, J. P.; Carlson, C. W.; Peria, W.; Cattell, C. A.; Klumpar, D.; Shelley, E.; Peterson, W.; Moebius, E.; Kistler, L.; Pfaff, R.

FAST observes signatures of small-scale downward-going current at the edges of the inverted-V regions where the primary (auroral) electrons are found. In the winter pre-midnight auroral zone these downward currents are carried by upward flowing low- and medium-energy (up to several keV) electron beams. FAST instrumentation shows agreement between the current densities inferred from both the electron distributions and gradients in the magnetic field. FAST data taken near apogee (˜4000-km altitude) commonly show downward current magnetic field deflections consistent with the observed upward flux of ˜109 electrons cm-2 s-1, or current densities of several µA m-2. The electron, field-aligned current and electric field signatures indicate the downward currents may be associated with “black aurora” and auroral ionospheric cavities. The field-aligned voltage-current relationship in the downward current region is nonlinear.

Birth Order and Intellectual Development among Zimbabwean Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, David; And Others

1990-01-01

Discusses the research debate over the question whether intelligence diminishes as a function of birth order. Presents a study of Zimbabwean children confirming the general downward trend of intelligence as a function of birth order. Addresses the influence of family size. (DB)

An 80-year record of sediment quality in the lower Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Metre, Peter C.; Horowitz, Arthur J.

2013-01-01

In 1937, the US Army Corps of Engineers cut through the "neck" of a large meander on the lower Mississippi River (below the confluence with the Ohio River) forming the Caulk Neck cutoff and creating Lake Whittington, a 26-km long oxbow lake, in northern Mississippi. Since 1938, seasonal flooding and a boat channel connecting the lake with the Mississippi River have led to sediment accumulation in the lake, resulting in an 80-year record of sediment quality in the river. On the basis of an age-dated sediment core from the lake, trends in trace metals and hydrophobic organic compounds (except polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) follow well-known patterns with upward trends from the 1930s to the ca 1970s, followed by downward trends to the present. Two factors contribute to these patterns: reservoir construction and changes in emissions. The construction of seven large reservoirs on the Missouri River, in particular the closure of the Fort Randall (1953) and Gavins Point (1955) Dams, greatly reduced the load of relatively clean sediment to the Mississippi River, likely contributing to downstream increases in contaminant concentrations in the Mississippi River. Increasing anthropogenic emissions also contributed to upward trends until ca 1970 when major environmental policy actions began resulting in broad decreases in emissions and downward trends in the concentrations of most of the contaminants monitored. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and phosphorus are partial exceptions to this pattern, with increases to the 1960s and variable concentrations showing no clear trend since. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001–2014

PubMed Central

de Souza, Eliana Amorim; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8–1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9–4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3–6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1–4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females. PMID:29489990

[The relationship between unemployment rates and lost work time due to sickness absence in an economic recession].

PubMed

López López, J C; Ballesteros Polo, M; Sampere Valero, M; Sacristán Nieto, R; Alguacil García, S; Ruiz Julian, A; Santos Avila, E; García Rubia, S; López Costa, B; Martínez Martínez, J M

Different countries have shown an inverse relationship between unemployment rates (UR) and indicators of sickness absence during periods of economic recession. To evaluate the relationship between indicators of sickness absence and unemployment in Spain during 2009-2015. We obtained incidence and absenteeism rates of non-work related sickness absence (NWSA) from Social Security data, and UR from the National Institute of Statistics. The relationship between indicators of NWSA and UR in the period 2009 to 2015 was graphically described using time trend plots. Scatter plots of NWSA indicators were also made against UR. Finally, we fitted linear regression models. Incidence (IR) and absenteeism rates (AR) of NWSA showed downward trends in 2009-2013 (IR 2009=28.07%, IR 2013=20.41%; AR 2009=2.53% and AR 2013=1.86%), changing to an upward trend up to 2015 (IR 2015=22.52%, AR 2015=2.12%). Unemployment rates trended upward in 2009-2013 (UR 2009=17.86%, UR 2013=26.10%), and then changed to a downward trend through 2015 (UR 2015=22.06%). There was an inverse relationship between UR and NWSA indicators. As in previous international studies, we found an inverse relationship between unemployment rates and indicators of sickness absence in Spain. More detailed studies are needed to evaluate explanatory hypotheses, such as those associated with the effects of discipline, selection and/or changes in the workforce. Copyright belongs to the Societat Catalana de Salut Laboral.

Is a shift from research on individual medical error to research on health information technology underway? A 40-year analysis of publication trends in medical journals.

PubMed

Erlewein, Daniel; Bruni, Tommaso; Gadebusch Bondio, Mariacarla

2018-06-07

In 1983, McIntyre and Popper underscored the need for more openness in dealing with errors in medicine. Since then, much has been written on individual medical errors. Furthermore, at the beginning of the 21st century, researchers and medical practitioners increasingly approached individual medical errors through health information technology. Hence, the question arises whether the attention of biomedical researchers shifted from individual medical errors to health information technology. We ran a study to determine publication trends concerning individual medical errors and health information technology in medical journals over the last 40 years. We used the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) taxonomy in the database MEDLINE. Each year, we analyzed the percentage of relevant publications to the total number of publications in MEDLINE. The trends identified were tested for statistical significance. Our analysis showed that the percentage of publications dealing with individual medical errors increased from 1976 until the beginning of the 21st century but began to drop in 2003. Both the upward and the downward trends were statistically significant (P < 0.001). A breakdown by country revealed that it was the weight of the US and British publications that determined the overall downward trend after 2003. On the other hand, the percentage of publications dealing with health information technology doubled between 2003 and 2015. The upward trend was statistically significant (P < 0.001). The identified trends suggest that the attention of biomedical researchers partially shifted from individual medical errors to health information technology in the USA and the UK. © 2018 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Simulation of the effects of rainfall and groundwater use on historical lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows in central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul; Daamen, Ruby C.; Petkewich, Matthew D.

2014-01-01

The urbanization of central Florida has progressed substantially in recent decades, and the total population in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties more than quadrupled from 1960 to 2010. The Floridan aquifer system is the primary source of water for potable, industrial, and agricultural purposes in central Florida. Despite increases in groundwater withdrawals to meet the demand of population growth, recharge derived by infiltration of rainfall in the well-drained karst terrain of central Florida is the largest component of the long-term water balance of the Floridan aquifer system. To complement existing physics-based groundwater flow models, artificial neural networks and other data-mining techniques were used to simulate historical lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at sites throughout the area. Historical data were examined using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and other exploratory analysis techniques to assess their suitability for more intensive data-mining analysis. Linear trend analyses of meteorological data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at 21 sites indicate 67 percent of sites exhibited upward trends in air temperature over at least a 45-year period of record, whereas 76 percent exhibited downward trends in rainfall over at least a 95-year period of record. Likewise, linear trend analyses of hydrologic response data, which have varied periods of record ranging in length from 10 to 79 years, indicate that water levels in lakes (307 sites) were about evenly split between upward and downward trends, whereas water levels in 69 percent of wells (out of 455 sites) and flows in 68 percent of springs (out of 19 sites) exhibited downward trends. Total groundwater use in the study area increased from about 250 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1958 to about 590 Mgal/d in 1980 and remained relatively stable from 1981 to 2008, with a minimum of 559 Mgal/d in 1994 and a maximum of 773 Mgal/d in 2000. The change in groundwater-use trend in the early 1980s and the following period of relatively slight trend is attributable to the concomitant effects of increasing public-supply withdrawals and decreasing use of water by the phosphate industry and agriculture. On the basis of available historical data and exploratory analyses, empirical lake water-level, groundwater-level, and spring-flow models were developed for 22 lakes, 23 wells, and 6 springs. Input time series consisting of various frequencies and frequency-band components of daily rainfall (1942 to 2008) and monthly total groundwater use (1957 to 2008) resulted in hybrid signal-decomposition artificial neural network models. The final models explained much of the variability in observed hydrologic data, with 43 of the 51 sites having coefficients of determination exceeding 0.6, and the models matched the magnitude of the observed data reasonably well, such that models for 32 of the 51 sites had root-mean-square errors less than 10 percent of the measured range of the data. The Central Florida Artificial Neural Network Decision Support System was developed to integrate historical databases and the 102 site-specific artificial neural network models, model controls, and model output into a spreadsheet application with a graphical user interface that allows the user to simulate scenarios of interest. Overall, the data-mining analyses indicate that the Floridan aquifer system in central Florida is a highly conductive, dynamic, open system that is strongly influenced by external forcing. The most important external forcing appears to be rainfall, which explains much of the multiyear cyclic variability and long-term downward trends observed in lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows. For most sites, groundwater use explains less of the observed variability in water levels and flows than rainfall. Relative groundwater-use impacts are greater during droughts, however, and long-term trends in water levels and flows were identified that are consistent with historical groundwater-use patterns. The sensitivity of the hydrologic system to rainfall is expected, owing to the well-drained karst terrain and relatively thin confinement of the Floridan aquifer system in much of central Florida. These characteristics facilitate the relatively rapid transmission of infiltrating water from rainfall to the water table and contribute to downward leakage of water to the Floridan aquifer system. The areally distributed nature of rainfall, as opposed to the site-specific nature of groundwater use, and the generally high transmissivity and low storativity properties of the semiconfined Floridan aquifer system contribute to the prevalence of water-level and flow patterns that mimic rainfall patterns. In general, the data-mining analyses demonstrate that the hydrologic system in central Florida is affected by groundwater use differently during wet periods, when little or no system storage is available (high water levels), compared to dry periods, when there is excess system storage (low water levels). Thus, by driving the overall behavior of the system, rainfall indirectly influences the degree to which groundwater use will effect persistent trends in water levels and flows, with groundwater-use impacts more prevalent during periods of low water levels and spring flows caused by low rainfall and less prevalent during periods of high water levels and spring flows caused by high rainfall. Differences in the magnitudes of rainfall and groundwater use during wet and dry periods also are important determinants of hydrologic response. An important implication of the data-mining analyses is that rainfall variability at subannual to multidecadal timescales must be considered in combination with groundwater use to provide robust system-response predictions that enhance sustainable resource management in an open karst aquifer system. The data-driven approach was limited, however, by the confounding effects of correlation between rainfall and groundwater use, the quality and completeness of the historical databases, and the spatial variations in groundwater use. The data-mining analyses indicate that available historical data when used alone do not contain sufficient information to definitively quantify the related individual effects of rainfall and groundwater use on hydrologic response. The knowledge gained from data-driven modeling and the results from physics-based modeling, when compared and used in combination, can yield a more comprehensive assessment and a more robust understanding of the hydrologic system than either of the approaches used separately.

Rapid decline in carbon monoxide emissions and export from East Asia between years 2005 and 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Bo; Chevallier, Frederic; Ciais, Philippe; Yin, Yi; Deeter, Merritt N.; Worden, Helen M.; Wang, Yilong; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

2018-04-01

Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite and ground-based carbon monoxide (CO) measurements both suggest a widespread downward trend in CO concentrations over East Asia during the period 2005–2016. This negative trend is inconsistent with global bottom-up inventories of CO emissions, which show a small increase or stable emissions in this region. We try to reconcile the observed CO trend with emission inventories using an atmospheric inversion of the MOPITT CO data that estimates emissions from primary sources, secondary production, and chemical sinks of CO. The atmospheric inversion indicates a ~ ‑2% yr‑1 decrease in emissions from primary sources in East Asia from 2005–2016. The decreasing emissions are mainly caused by source reductions in China. The regional MEIC inventory for China is the only bottom up estimate consistent with the inversion-diagnosed decrease of CO emissions. According to the MEIC data, decreasing CO emissions from four main sectors (iron and steel industries, residential sources, gasoline-powered vehicles, and construction materials industries) in China explain 76% of the inversion-based trend of East Asian CO emissions. This result suggests that global inventories underestimate the recent decrease of CO emission factors in China which occurred despite increasing consumption of carbon-based fuels, and is driven by rapid technological changes with improved combustion efficiency and emission control measures.

Tuberculosis ... what dental health care workers need to know.

PubMed

Bednarsh, H; Eklund, K J

1998-01-01

After a downward trend between 1960 and 1985, the number of Tuberculosis (TB) cases has increased since 1985. While the risk of TB transmission in dental settings is low, this risk could be reduced even further by surveillance, education, and attention to patient history.

Impacts of changing markets and the housing downturn on hardwood sawmills in Wisconsin

Treesearch

Matt Bumgardner; Scott Bowe

2009-01-01

Hardwood lumber production has been on a downward trend nationally since 1999, with two distinct downturns in production evident (Figure 1). In fact, there has been only one year - 2004 - in the last nine that saw an increase in production.

Age Discrimination, Social Closure and Employment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roscigno, Vincent J.; Mong, Sherry; Byron, Reginald; Tester, Griff

2007-01-01

Age discrimination in employment has received mounting attention over the past two decades, and from various cross-cutting social science disciplines. Findings from survey and experimental analyses have revealed the pervasiveness of ageist stereotypes, while aggregate and life course analyses suggest trends toward downward occupational mobility…

Identification of nitrate long term trends in Loire-Brittany river district (France) in connection with hydrogeological contexts, agricultural practices and water table level variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, B.; Baran, N.; Bourgine, B.; Ratheau, D.

2009-04-01

The European Union (EU) has adopted directives requiring that Member States take measures to reach a "good" chemical status of water resources by the year 2015 (Water Framework Directive: WFD). Alongside, the Nitrates Directives (91/676/EEC) aims at controlling nitrogen pollution and requires Member States to identify groundwaters that contain more than 50 mg NO3 L-1 or could exceed this limit if preventive measures are not taken. In order to achieve these environmental objectives in the Loire-Brittany river basin, or to justify the non achievement of these objectives, a large dataset of nitrate concentrations (117.056 raw data distributed on 7.341 time-series) and water table level time-series (1.371.655 data distributed on 511 piezometers) is analysed from 1945 to 2007. The 156.700 sq km Loire-Brittany river basin shows various hydrogeological contexts, ranging from sedimentary aquifers to basement ones, with a few volcanic-rock aquifers. The knowledge of the evolution of agricultural practices is important in such a study and, even if this information is not locally available, agricultural practices have globally changed since the 1991 Nitrates Directives. The detailed dataset available for the Loire-Brittany basin aquifers is used to evaluate tools and to propose efficient methodologies for identifying and quantifying past and current trends in nitrate concentrations. Therefore, the challenge of this study is to propose a global and integrated approach which allows nitrate trend identifications for the whole Loire-Brittany river basin. The temporal piezometric behaviour of each aquifer is defined using geostatistical analyse of water table level time-series. This method requires the calculation of an experimental temporal variogram that can be fitted with a theoretical model valid for a large time range. Identification of contrasted behaviours (short term, annual or pluriannual water table fluctuations) allows a systematic classification of the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers. The nitrate dataset shows too many irregularities to employ traditional time-series approaches such as linear regression trend tests. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test is a robust statistical trend detection test that does not require verification of the normality of the dataset (Aguilar et al, 2007). Moreover, this test seems appropriate since it is less sensitive to missing or outlier data than a simple linear regression test. As the MK test can only detect monotonic trends, and as already done by Stuart et al., (2007) and Broers and Van der Grift (2004), the trend analyses are decennially partitioned in order to identify possible trend reversals for the studied period for each observation point. The trend identification is then spatialized by the use of the Kendall Regional (KR) test on homogenous zones characterized by their geology, their agricultural practices and their piezometric behaviour. The KR test, previously used by Frans and Helsel (2005) in the Columbia Basin Ground Water context, is quite similar to the MK test and consists of the creation of virtual regional boreholes using networks of boreholes located in the homogenous zones. This test allows the identification of regional monotonic trends, even in the zones where nitrate time-series are too small to detect significant trend per observation point. The MK test results show significant upward trends in nitrate concentrations in the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers when the test is computed on the 1945-2007 period. However, the decennial MK test shows different behaviours at smaller time scale. Some zones are characterized by a constant and significant increase in nitrate concentrations since 1945 (North-East of Brittany, North of Beauce) whereas others show a trend reversal (South of Brittany, Callovo-Oxfordian marls between Le Mans and Alençon, under covered Jurassic limestone around Poitiers). Furthermore, some rare zones show an increase in nitrate concentrations that follow a significant downward trend period (Orléans). In the nineties, a transition period may have occurred with a higher proportion of upward than downward trends (82 % against 7 % respectively) for the 1980-1990 period and a lower proportion of upward than downward trends for the 2000-2007 period (37 % against 51 % respectively). Combined with the analyse of the current groundwater nitrate concentrations, the KR test reveals zones where trends in nitrate concentrations have been significantly raising with high nitrate current mean values (> 50 mg NO3 L-1). On the other hand, some zones show a significant regional downward trend since 1995 and low current nitrate concentrations (< 20 mg NO3 L-1). Causes of trend reversals cannot be determined by the MK and KR statistical trend analyses, but the cross analyse of nitrate and water table level time-series gives a hint of a positive correlation between these two variables. Evolution of nitrate concentrations in superficial aquifers may thus depend on a combined effect of changes in both agricultural practices and evolution of water table levels linked with climatic context. References Aguilar J.B., Orban P., Dassargues A., Brouyère S., (2007) - Identification of groundwater quality trends in a chalk aquifer threatened by intensive agriculture in Belgium. Hydrogeology journal 15: 1615-1627. Broers H.P., van der Grift B., (2004) - Regional monitoring of temporal changes in groundwater quality. Journal of hydrology 296: 192-220. Frans L.M., Helsel D.R. (2005) - Evaluating regional trends in ground water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin Ground Water management Area, Washington. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5078, 7p. Stuart M.E., Chilton P.J., Kiniiburgh D.G., Cooper D.M., (2007) - Screening for long-term trends in groundwater nitrate monitoring data. Quaterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 40: 361-376. Funding The study was funded by the Loire-Brittany River Basin Agency and from proper BRGM funds.

[The epidemiological trends connected with detection of HIV, HCV, HBV and syphilis markers in blood donors in the years 2006-2009].

PubMed

Rudowska, Ewa; Basta, Lidia; Piwowarska, Grazyna; Drybańska, Bozena; Dylag, Stanisław

2011-03-01

In the recent years a great progress has been documented in infection prevention. There is more possibilities responsible for infection and its transmission. To analyze obtained epidemiological data concerned to detected infection in blood donors in the area of Blood Bank in Katowice in the years 2006-2009. Statistic calculations taking account of confirmed infections in the years 2006-2009 were analyzed in first-time donors and multiple donors, and for all donors. Tests confirming infection were performed in the IHiT in Warsaw, in RBC in Katowice, confirmation test for syphilis in the RBC in Warsaw. Only the positive confirmed results are taken into account and presented in summary. In first-time donors more frequently the markers of infection: HCV and HBV dozens of times, HIV and syphilis several times were detected. In the group of first-time donors a downward trend was detected in the number of detected infections HBV and HCV In the group of multiple donors the downward trend was documented in the number of detected antibodies associated to syphilis. In the group of multiple donors the number of detected HIV infections has been increased in the years 2008 and 2009. For monitoring trends of each type of infections, a period of four-years is not sufficiently long. This data needs a further observations.

Changes of cloudiness over tropical land during the past few decades and its link to global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arias, P.; Fu, R.; Li, W.

2007-12-01

Tropical forests play a key role in determining the global carbon-climate feedback in the 21st century. Changes in rainforest growth and mortality rates, especially in the deep and least perturbed forest areas, have been consistently observed across global tropics in recent years. Understanding the underlying causes of these changes, especially their links to the global climate change, is especially important in determining the future of the tropical rainforests in the 21st century. Previous studies have mostly focus on the potential influences from elevated atmospheric CO2 and increasing surface temperature. Because the rainforests in wet tropical region is often light limited, we explore whether cloudiness have changed, if so, whether it is consistent with that expected from changes in forest growth rate. We will report our observational analysis examining the trends in annual average shortwave (SW) downwelling radiation, total cloud cover, and cumulus cover over the tropical land regions and to link them with trends in convective available potencial energy (CAPE). ISCCP data and radiosonde records available from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Wyoming (http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html) are used to study the trends. The period for the trend analysis is 1984-2004 for the ISCCP data and 1980-2006 for the radiosondes. The results for the Amazon rainforest region suggest a decreasing trend in total cloud and convective cloud covers, which results in an increase in downwelling SW radiation at the surface. These changes of total and convective clouds are consistent with a trend of decreasing CAPE and an elevated Level of Free Convection (LFC) height, as obtained from the radiosondes. All the above mentioned trends are statistically significant based on the Mann-Kendall test with 95% of confidence. These results consistently suggest the downward surface solar radiation has been increasing since 1984, result from a decrease of convective and total cloudiness over the Southern Amazon basin, due to an increase of LFC and atmospheric thermodynamic stability. Such an increase of surface SW radiation probably has contributed to the increasing in growth rate for the forests in the Amazon forests. Currently, the same analysis is being applied using radiosonde data from the Comprehensive Aerological Reference Data Set (CARDS) over the Amazon and Congo basins and the Southeast Asia. Our objective is to identify changes in cloudiness over tropical land and identify its underlying causes, especially the link to changes in surface temperature and humidity.

State Appropriations: Drought Warning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ream, James A.

1981-01-01

After two decades of increase, state funding for higher education is drying up because of inflation and declining state revenues due to recession. States need to reemphasize the importance of higher education. Political action may be the way to reverse the downward trend in state financing of higher education. (MLW)

Trends in chemical concentration in sediment cores from three lakes in New Jersey and one lake on Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Gary R.; Ayers, Mark A.; Callender, Edward; Van Metre, Peter C.

2003-01-01

Data from this study indicate that changes in population, land use, and chemical use in the urbanized watersheds over the period of sedimentary record have contributed to upward trends in concentrations of trace elements and hydrophobic organic compounds. Although downward trends were observed for some constituents in the years after their concentrations peaked, concentrations of most constituents in urban lake cores were higher in the most recently deposited sediments than at the base of each respective core and in the reference lake cores. Similar trends in concentrations of these constituents have been observed in sediment cores from other urban lakes across the United States.

A Seasonal Trend of Single Scattering Albedo in Southern African Biomass-burning Particles: Implications for Satellite Products and Estimates of Emissions for the World's Largest Biomass-burning Source

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eck, T. F.; Holben, B. N.; Reid, J. S.; Mukelabai, M. M.; Piketh, S. J.; Torres, O.; Jethva, H. T.; Hyer, E. J.; Ward, D. E.; Dubovik, O.;

Trends in non-help-seeking for mental disorders in Germany between 1997-1999 and 2009-2012: a repeated cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Brandstetter, Susanne; Dodoo-Schittko, Frank; Speerforck, Sven; Apfelbacher, Christian; Grabe, Hans-Jörgen; Jacobi, Frank; Hapke, Ulfert; Schomerus, Georg; Baumeister, Sebastian E

2017-08-01

This study sought to examine trends in non-help-seeking for mental disorders among persons with a prevalent mental disorder (12-month prevalence) in Germany between 1997-1999 and 2009-2012. We examined data from 1909 persons aged 18-65 years who participated in two independent, repeated cross-sectional surveys (German National Interview and Examination Study 1997-1999, German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2009-2012) conducted 12 years apart. Prevalent mental disorders (12-month prevalence) were determined using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, which included information on lifetime help-seeking for mental health problems. Correlates of self-reported help-seeking were analyzed according to Andersen's Behavioral Model. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to assess time trends in the directly standardized and model-adjusted prevalence of non-help-seeking across strata of socio-economic and clinical variables. The proportion of people with a prevalent mental disorder who have never sought help in their lifetime decreased significantly from 62% (95% CI 58.7-64.7) to 57% (95% CI 52.2-60.9) between 1997-1999 and 2009-2012 in adults aged 18-65 years in Germany. Downward trends in non-help-seeking occurred in all investigated strata and reached statistical significance in women, in people who were living alone, people with medium educational level, people living in middle-sized communities, people with non-statutory health insurance, smokers, and people with co-existing somatic conditions. Despite a downward trend over the course of 12 years, a large proportion of people suffering from mental disorders are still not seeking treatment in Germany. Further efforts to increase uptake of help-seeking for mental disorders in hard-to-reach groups are warranted to continue this trend.

Projecting Changes in Climate & Air Quality for the Southeastern U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

Recent improvements in air quality in the United States have been due to significant reductions in emissions of precursors of ozone and particulate matter (PM), and these downward emissions trends are expected to continue in the next few decades. To ensure that planned air quali...

“Changes in US Regional Air Quality at 2030 Simulated Using RCP 6.0”

EPA Science Inventory

Session: Global/Regional Modeling Applications Recent improvements in air quality in the United States have been due to significant reductions in emissions of ozone and particulate matter (PM) precursors, and these downward emissions trends are expected to continue in the next...

"Changes in US Regional Air Quality at 2030 Simulated Using RCP 6.0"

EPA Science Inventory

Recent improvements in air quality in the United States have been due to significant reductions in emissions of ozone and particulate matter (PM) precursors, and these downward emissions trends are expected to continue in the next few decades. To ensure that planned air quality ...

Canadian Adoption Statistics: 1981-1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sobol, Michael P.; Daly, Kerry J.

1994-01-01

Obtained data on Canadian adoptions (1981-90) from adoption coordinators of all 10 provinces and 2 territories. Found downward trends in use of adoption as means of family formation across decade. By 1990, most infant adoptions were facilitated by private practitioners and agencies whereas older children were primarily adopted through public…

Assessment of surface-water quantity and quality, Eagle River watershed, Colorado, 1947-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Cory A.; Moore, Jennifer L.; Richards, Rodney J.

2011-01-01

The spatial patterns for concentrations of trace metals (aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, and zinc) indicate an increase in dissolved concentrations of these metals near historical mining areas in the Eagle River and several tributaries near Belden. In general, concentrations decrease downstream from mining areas. Concentrations typically are near or below reporting limits in Gore Creek and other tributaries within the watershed. Concentrations for trace elements (arsenic, selenium, and uranium) in the watershed usually are below the reporting limit, and no prevailing spatial patterns were observed in the data. Step-trend analysis and temporal-trend analysis provide evidence that remediation of historical mining areas in the upper Eagle River have led to observed decreases in metals concentrations in many surface-waters. Comparison of pre- and post-remediation concentrations for many metals indicates significant decreases in metals concentrations for cadmium, manganese, and zinc at sites downstream from the Eagle Mine Superfund Site. Some sites show order of magnitude reductions in median concentrations between these two periods. Evaluation of monotonic trends for dissolved metals concentrations show downward trends at numerous sites in, and downstream from, historic mining areas. The spatial pattern of nutrients shows lower concentrations on many tributaries and on the Eagle River upstream from Red Cliff with increases in nutrients downstream of major urban areas. Seasonal variations show that for many nutrient species, concentrations tend to be lowest May-June and highest January-March. The gradual changes in concentrations between seasons may be related to dilution effects from increases and decreases in streamflow. Upward trends in nutrients between the towns of Gypsum and Avon were detected for nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus. An upward trend in nitrite was detected in Gore Creek. No trends were detected in un-ionized ammonia within the ERW. Exceedances of State water-quality standards (nitrite, nitrate, and un-ionized ammonia) and levels higher than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations (total phosphorus) occur in several areas within the ERW. The majority of the exceedances are from comparisons to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency total phosphorus recommendations. A positive correlation was observed between suspended sediment and total phosphorus. An upward trend in total dissolved solids in Gore Creek may be the result of increases in chloride salts. Highly significant trends were detected in sodium, potassium, and chloride with a significant upward trend in magnesium and a weakly significant upward trend in calcium. A quantitative analysis of the relative abundance of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium to the available anions suggests that chloride salts likely are the source for the detected upward trends because chloride is the only commonly occurring anion with a trend in Gore Greek. A potential source for the observed chloride salts may be the chemical anti-icing and deicing products used during winter road maintenance in municipal areas and on Interstate-70. A downward trend in dissolved solids in the Eagle River between Gypsum and Avon may be contributing to the detected trend on the Eagle River at Gypsum. Significant downward trends were detected in specific ions such as calcium, magnesium, sulfate, and silica. Measures of total dissolved solids as well as comparisons to specific ions show that in water-quality samples within the ERW concentrations generally are lower in the headwaters, with increases downstream from Wolcott. Differences in concentrations likely result from increased abundance of salt-bearing geologic units downstream from Avon. Few sites had measured concentrations that exceeded the State standards for chloride.

Maternal and child health interventions in Nigeria: a systematic review of published studies from 1990 to 2014.

PubMed

Kana, Musa Abubakar; Doctor, Henry Victor; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Lunet, Nuno; Barros, Henrique

2015-04-09

Poor maternal and child health indicators have been reported in Nigeria since the 1990s. Many interventions have been instituted to reverse the trend and ensure that Nigeria is on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. This systematic review aims at describing and indirectly measuring the effect of the Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health (MNCH) interventions implemented in Nigeria from 1990 to 2014. PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge were searched from 1990 to April 2014 whereas POPLINE® was searched until 16 February 2015 to identify reports of interventions targeting Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health in Nigeria. Narrative and graphical synthesis was done by integrating the results of extracted studies with trends of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and under five mortality (U5MR) derived from a joint point regression analysis using Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data (1990-2013). This was supplemented by document analysis of policies, guidelines and strategies of the Federal Ministry of Health developed for Nigeria during the same period. We identified 66 eligible studies from 2,662 studies. Three interventions were deployed nationwide and the remainder at the regional level. Multiple study designs were employed in the enrolled studies: pre- and post-intervention or quasi-experimental (n = 40; 61%); clinical trials (n = 6;9%); cohort study or longitudinal evaluation (n = 3;5%); process/output/outcome evaluation (n = 17;26%). The national MMR shows a consistent reduction (Annual Percentage Change (APC) = -3.10%, 95% CI: -5.20 to -1.00 %) with marked decrease in the slope observed in the period with a cluster of published studies (2004-2014). Fifteen intervention studies specifically targeting under-five children were published during the 24 years of observation. A statistically insignificant downward trend in the U5MR was observed (APC = -1.25%, 95% CI: -4.70 to 2.40%) coinciding with publication of most of the studies and development of MNCH policies. The development of MNCH policies, implementation and publication of interventions corresponds with the downward trend of maternal and child mortality in Nigeria. This systematic review has also shown that more MNCH intervention research and publications of findings is required to generate local and relevant evidence.

Use of flow-normalization to evaluate nutrient concentration and flux changes in Lake Champlain tributaries, 1990-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medalie, Laura; Hirsch, Robert M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey evaluated 20 years of total phosphorus (P) and total nitrogen (N) concentration data for 18 Lake Champlain tributaries using a new statistical method based on weighted regressions to estimate daily concentration and flux histories based on discharge, season, and trend as explanatory variables. The use of all the streamflow discharge values for a given date in the record, in a process called "flow-normalization," removed the year-to-year variation due to streamflow and generated a smooth time series from which trends were calculated. This approach to data analysis can be of great value to evaluations of the success of restoration efforts because it filters out the large random fluctuations in the flux that are due to the temporal variability in streamflow. Results for the full 20 years of record showed a mixture of upward and downward trends for concentrations and yields of P and N. When the record was broken into two 10-year periods, for many tributaries, the more recent period showed a reversal in N from upward to downward trends and a similar reversal or reduction in magnitude of upward trends for P. Some measures of P and N concentrations and yields appear to be related to intensity of agricultural activities, point-source loads of P, or population density. Total flow-normalized P flux aggregated from the monitored tributaries showed a decrease of 30 metric tons per year from 1991 to 2009, which is about 15% of the targeted reduction established by the operational management plan for the Lake Champlain Basin.

How does electronic cigarette access affect adolescent smoking?

PubMed

Friedman, Abigail S

2015-12-01

Understanding electronic cigarettes' effect on tobacco smoking is a central economic and policy issue. This paper examines the causal impact of e-cigarette access on conventional cigarette use by adolescents. Regression analyses consider how state bans on e-cigarette sales to minors influence smoking rates among 12 to 17 year olds. Such bans yield a statistically significant 0.9 percentage point increase in recent smoking in this age group, relative to states without such bans. Results are robust to multiple specifications as well as several falsification and placebo checks. This effect is both consistent with e-cigarette access reducing smoking among minors, and large: banning electronic cigarette sales to minors counteracts 70 percent of the downward pre-trend in teen cigarette smoking for a given two-year period. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Meier, Walter N

2018-05-28

As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Subtropical Potential Vorticity Intrusion Drives Increasing Tropospheric Ozone over the Tropical Central Pacific.

PubMed

Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Graf, Hans-F; Lan, Xiaoqing; Gong, Hainan; Nath, Reshmita; Hu, Kaiming; Wang, Lin

2016-02-12

Drawn from multiple reanalysis datasets, an increasing trend and westward shift in the number of Potential Vorticity intrusion events over the Pacific are evident. The increased frequency can be linked to a long-term trend in upper tropospheric equatorial westerly wind and subtropical jets during boreal winter to spring. These may be resulting from anomalous warming and cooling over the western Pacific warm pool and the tropical eastern Pacific, respectively. The intrusions brought dry and ozone rich air of stratospheric origin deep into the tropics. In the tropical upper troposphere, interannual ozone variability is mainly related to convection associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Zonal mean stratospheric overturning circulation organizes the transport of ozone rich air poleward and downward to the high and midlatitudes leading there to higher ozone concentration. In addition to these well described mechanisms, we observe a long-term increasing trend in ozone flux over the northern hemispheric outer tropical (10-25°N) central Pacific that results from equatorward transport and downward mixing from the midlatitude upper troposphere and lower stratosphere during PV intrusions. This increase in tropospheric ozone flux over the Pacific Ocean may affect the radiative processes and changes the budget of atmospheric hydroxyl radicals.

Detection of water quality trends at high, median, and low flow in a Catskill Mountain stream, New York, through a new statistical method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murdoch, Peter S.; Shanley, James B.

2006-01-01

The effects of changes in acid deposition rates resulting from the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 should first appear in stream waters during rainstorms and snowmelt, when the surface of the watershed is most hydrologically connected to the stream. Early detection of improved stream water quality is possible if trends at high flow could be separately determined. Trends in concentrations of sulfate (SO42−), nitrate (NO3−), calcium plus magnesium (Ca2++Mg2+), and acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) in Biscuit Brook, Catskill Mountains, New York, were assessed through segmented regression analysis (SRA). The method uses annual concentration‐to‐discharge relations to predict concentrations for specific discharges, then compares those annual values to determine trends at specific discharge levels. Median‐flow trends using SRA were comparable to those predicted by the seasonal Kendall tau test and a multiple regression residual analysis. All of these methods show that stream water SO42− concentrations have decreased significantly since 1983; Ca2++Mg2+ concentrations have decreased at a steady but slower rate than SO42−; and ANC shows no trend. The new SRA method, however, reveals trends that differ at specified flow levels. ANC has increased, and NO3−concentrations have decreased at high flows, but neither has changed as significantly at low flows. The general downward trend in SO42− flattened at median flow and reversed at high flow between 1997 and 2002. The reversal of the high‐flow SO42− trend is consistent with increases in SO42− concentrations in both precipitation and soil solutions at Biscuit Brook. Separate calculation of high‐flow trends provides resource managers with an early detection system for assessing changes in water quality resulting from changes in acidic deposition.

How Have Cancer Clinical Trial Eligibility Criteria Evolved Over Time?

PubMed Central

Yaman, Anil; Chakrabarti, Shreya; Sen, Anando; Weng, Chunhua

2016-01-01

Knowledge reuse of cancer trial designs may benefit from a temporal understanding of the evolution of the target populations of cancer studies over time. Therefore, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the trends of cancer trial eligibility criteria between 1999 and 2014. The yearly distributions of eligibility concepts for chemicals and drugs, procedures, observations, and medical conditions extracted from free-text eligibility criteria of 32,000 clinical trials for 89 cancer types were analyzed. We identified the concepts that trend upwards or downwards in all or selected cancer types, and the concepts that show anomalous trends for some cancers. Later, concept trends were studied in a disease-specific manner and illustrated for breast cancer. Criteria trends observed in this study are also validated and interpreted using evidence from the existing medical literature. This study contributes a method for concept trend analysis and original knowledge of the trends in cancer clinical trial eligibility criteria. PMID:27570681

Connections between meteorological and hydrological droughts in a semi-arid basin of the middle Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Binquan; Zhu, Changchang; Liang, Zhongmin; Wang, Guoqing; Zhang, Yu

2018-06-01

Differences between meteorological and hydrological droughts could reflect the regional water consumption by both natural elements and human water-use. The connections between these two drought types were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), respectively. In a typical semi-arid basin of the middle Yellow River (Qingjianhe River basin), annual precipitation and air temperature showed significantly downward and upward trends, respectively, with the rates of -2.37 mm yr-1 and 0.03 °C yr-1 (1961-2007). Under their synthetic effects, water balance variable (represented by SPEI) showed obviously downward (drying) trend at both upstream and whole basin areas. For the spatial variability of precipitation, air temperature and the calculated SPEI, both upstream and downstream areas experienced very similar change characteristics. Results also suggested that the Qingjianhe River basin experienced near normal condition during the study period. As a whole, this semi-arid basin mainly had the meteorological drought episodes in the mid-1960s, late-1990s and the 2000s depicted by 12-month SPEI. The drying trend could also be depicted by the hydrological drought index (12-month SSI) at both upstream and downstream stations (Zichang and Yanchuan), but the decreasing trends were not significant. A correlation analysis showed that hydrological system responds rapidly to the change of meteorological conditions in this semi-arid region. This finding could be an useful implication to drought research for those semi-arid basins with intensive human activities.

[Trend in mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women and its relationship to socioeconomic factors in Colombia, 1998-2010].

PubMed

Salazar, Edwin; Buitrago, Carolina; Molina, Federico; Alzate, Catalina Arango

2015-05-01

Determine the trend in mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women and its relationship to socioeconomic factors. Descriptive study, based on the official registries of deaths reported by the National Statistics Agency, 1998-2010. The trend was analyzed using Poisson regressions. Bivariate correlations and multiple linear regression models were constructed to explore the relationship between mortality and socioeconomic factors: human development index, Gini index, gross domestic product, unsatisfied basic needs, unemployment rate, poverty, extreme poverty, quality of life index, illiteracy rate, and percentage of affiliation to the Social Security System. A total of 2 223 female deaths from external causes were recorded, of which 1 429 occurred during pregnancy and 794 in the postpartum period. The gross mortality rate dropped from 30.7 per 100 000 live births plus fetal deaths in 1998 to 16.7 in 2010. A downward curve with no significant inflection points was shown in the risk of dying from this cause. The multiple linear regression model showed a correlation between mortality and extreme poverty and the illiteracy rate, suggesting that these indicators could explain 89.4% of the change in mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women each year in Colombia. Mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women showed a significant downward trend that may be explained by important socioeconomic changes in the country, including a decrease in extreme poverty and in the illiteracy rate.

Tendencia de los egresos hospitalarios por enfermedades infecciosas intestinales en niños en Argentina, 2005-2013.

PubMed

Degiuseppe, Juan I

2017-08-01

Acute diarrhea is one of the most serious public health problems in developing countries because it is generally associated with unfavorable living conditions. The objective of this study was to analyze trends in hospital discharges for intestinal infectious disease in children under age 5 recorded in official public hospitals from Argentina in the 2005-2013 period. This was an ecological, time-series study based on data provided by the Health Statistics and Information Department, at a national and regional level. Specific hospital discharge rates were estimated, and seasonal behavior and trends were analyzed in relation to this event. In Argentina, 2 521 729 patients under age 5 were discharged in this period; of these, 9.0% were diagnosed with intestinal infectious disease. Children under age 1 accounted for a third of hospitalizations; two annual peaks (summer and winter) were observed in the seasonality analysis. Overall, a downward trend was observed, with a mild increase in the 2007-2009 period. Rates were up to 3 or 4 times higher in Northwest and Northeast Argentina than in the Pampa region. Hospital discharges for intestinal infectious disease in the public subsector account for approximately 10% of all discharges of children under age 5. This event shows a seasonal pattern, with a slightly downward trend over the past years in spite of its heterogeneous distribution across the different Argentine regions. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría

Health and safety—the downward trend in lead levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, M. G.; Wilson, D. N.

Lead has been known and used by man for thousands of years and its toxic properties have been known for almost as long. In consequence, a wide body of legislation has built up and is designed to protect individuals in both the occupational and the general environments. At the occupational level, two types of controls are widely employed, namely, lead-in-air and lead-in-blood. Limits placed on the amount of lead-in-air are designed to ensure that individuals are not exposed to unsafe levels of lead via inhalation. Currently, the most common standard is 0.15 mg m -3 but there is a clear downward trend and levels as low as 0.05 mg m -3 are mandatory in some countries. Controls on the amount of lead-in-blood give a more direct indication of the exposure experienced by individuals. The most common level presently employed is 70 μg m -3 but, as knowledge of the health effects of lead improves, lower levels are being introduced and 50 μg m -3 is now fairly common. While women are no more sensitive to lead than men, some countries do employ lower blood-lead limits for women in the workplace in order to protect any developing foetus. This paper examines the levels currently in force in various countries and describes developments which are now taking place in the legislation that is being enacted in several parts of the world. As far as the general public is concerned, only a relatively small number of countries employ controls. Where controls do exist, however, they are set at much lower levels than for the occupational environment in order to protect the most sensitive members of the population. Several countries employ limits on lead in ambient air. Traditionally, these have been set at either 1.5 or 2.0 μg m -3, but several countries are currently considering sharp downward revisions to levels of the order of 0.5 μg m -3. A few countries offer guidance on acceptable blood levels for the general population, most commonly for children. Again downward revisions are taking place but where data are available, there is a very encouraging downward trend also in average blood-lead levels found amongst members of the population. These must be due to a combination of factors which have reduced exposures to lead. The net result is that, at least in the more industrialized countries, average blood-lead levels have fallen to extremely low levels and very few individuals can be found with blood lead levels above currently accepted levels of concern.

Decadal Transition of Moisture Sources and Transport in Northwestern China During Summer From 1982 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, Lijuan; Zhong, Linhao; Ma, Zhuguo

2017-12-01

The northwestern corner of China (NWCC) experienced a decadal transition in summer precipitation during 1982-2010, with a significant upward trend in 1982-2000 (P1) but a downward one in 2001-2010 (P2). A spatially unbounded dynamic recycling model is developed to estimate the moisture sources and moisture transport variations based on ERA-Interim data. The results suggest that more than 88% of NWCC precipitation has external moisture origins in the southwest and northwest terrestrial areas. The increasing precipitation trend during P1 can be explained by the increasing moisture contribution from the southwest and decreasing contribution from the northwest. However, the opposite trends cause the decreasing precipitation trend during P2. In general, the decadal precipitation transition is mainly determined by the variation of short-distance moisture transport from central Asia, although opposite moisture transport variations exist in the Ural Mountains and Northeast Europe. The variation of the precipitation trend is closely associated with a well-organized wave train propagation from the North Atlantic to central Asia. During P1, the wave train structure consists of a titled positive phase North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), an anticyclonic circulation over Europe, and a cyclonic anomaly over central Asia, which promotes the southwest moisture flux to NWCC. But the opposite circulation pattern dominates P2. The energy dispersion due to the breakdown of the NAO determines the phase and strength of the downstream wave anomalies over Eurasia. This suggests that the summer NAO might influence the decadal variation of NWCC precipitation through the decadal modulation of the Eurasia wave train.

Trends of chlorinated organic contaminants in Great Lakes trout and walleye from 1970-1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hickey, J.P.; Batterman, S.A.; Chernyak, S.M.

2006-01-01

Levels of chlorinated organic contaminants in predator fish have been monitored annually in each of the Great Lakes since the 1970s. This article updates earlier reports with data from 1991 to 1998 for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and (Lake Erie only) walleye (Sander vitreus) to provide a record that now extends nearly 30 years. Whole fish were analyzed for a number of industrial contaminants and pesticides, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT), dieldrin, toxaphene, and mirex, and contaminant trends were quantified using multicompartment models. As in the past, fish from Lakes Michigan, Ontario, and Huron have the highest levels of PCBs, DDT, and dieldrin; Superior has the highest levels of toxaphene; and Ontario has the highest levels of mirex. In the period after curtailment of chemical use, concentrations rapidly decreased, represented by relatively short half-lives from approximately 1 to 9 years. Although trends depend on both the contaminant and the lake, in many cases the rate of decline has been decreasing, and concentrations are gradually approaching an irreducible concentration. For dioxin-like PCBs, levels have not been decreasing during the most recent 5-year period (1994 to 1998). In some cases, the year-to-year variation in contaminant levels is large, mainly because of food-web dynamics. Although this variation sometimes obscures long-term trends, the general pattern of a rapid decrease followed by slowing or leveling-off of the downward trend seems consistent across the Great Lakes, and future improvements of the magnitude seen in the 1970s and early 1980s likely will take much longer.

Prevalence of smoking among major movie characters: 1996–2004

PubMed Central

Worth, Keilah A; Cin, Sonya Dal; Sargent, James D

2006-01-01

Background Reports of a relationship between watching smoking in movies and smoking among adolescents have prompted greater scrutiny of smoking in movies by the public health community. Objective To assess the smoking prevalence among adult and adolescent movie characters, examine trends in smoking in movies over time, and compare the data with actual smoking prevalence among US adults and adolescents. Design and methods Smoking status of all major human adolescent and adult movie characters in the top 100 box office hits from 1996 to 2004 (900 movies) was assessed, and smoking prevalence was examined by Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) rating and year of release. Results The movies contained 5944 major characters, of whom 4911 were adults and 466 were adolescents. Among adult movie characters, the overall smoking prevalence was 20.6%; smoking was more common in men than in women (22.6% v 16.1%, respectively, p<0.001), and was related to MPAA rating category (26.9% for movies rated R (restricted, people aged <17 years require accompanying adult), 17.9% for PG‐13 (parents strongly cautioned that some material might be inappropriate for children) and 10.4% for G/PG (general audiences, all ages; parental guidance suggested for children), p<0.001). In 1996, the smoking prevalence for major adult movie characters (25.7%) was similar to that in the actual US population (24.7%). Smoking prevalence among adult movie characters declined to 18.4% in 2004 (p for trend <0.001), slightly below that for the US population for that year (20.9%). Examination of trends by MPAA rating showed that the downward trend in smoking among adult movie characters was statistically significant in movies rated G/PG and R, but not in those rated PG‐13. A downward trend over time was also found for smoking among adolescent movie characters. There was no smoking among adult characters in 43.3% of the movies; however, in 39% of the movies, smoking prevalence among adult characters was higher than that in the US adult population in the year of release. Conclusions Smoking prevalence among major adolescent and adult movie characters is declining, with the downward trend among adult characters weakest for PG‐13‐rated movies. Although many movies depict no adult smoking, more than one third depict smoking as more prevalent than that among US adults at the time of release. PMID:17130372

Nitrogen trends in rivers of the conterminous U.S. in the context of land use and sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stets, E.; Sprague, L. A.

2017-12-01

Tremendous efforts have been undertaken to improve the quality of water throughout the United States over the past several decades. The goal of decreasing nitrogen concentrations and fluxes from U.S. rivers has had mixed success and the results are often difficult to quantify. The U.S. Geological Survey has undertaken a study to describe trends in water quality at hundreds of river and stream locations in the conterminous U.S. using a broad data set from national, state, local, and tribal entities. This study represents the largest and most comprehensive analysis of trends in water quality in the U.S. to date. During the period 1992-2012, nitrate (NO3) decreased at 132 sites and increased at 88 sites. Total nitrogen (TN) decreased at 91 sites and increased at 55 sites. The median trend for both NO3 and TN was slightly downward, at -0.04 and -0.11 mg N L-1, respectively. For both NO3 and TN, downward trends were more common in agricultural and urban sites while upward trends were more common at undeveloped sites. Decreases in TN were largest in rivers for which NO3 was a large proportion of TN, which is indicative of significant anthropogenic nitrogen inputs. Across all sites and land use types, trends in TN were highly correlated with trends in NO3, suggesting that changes in NO3 have been a large contributor to TN trends. While overall the largest decreases in NO3 and TN primarily occurred in heavily agricultural areas, decreases were also common in watersheds with higher percentage urban development. Likewise, the largest decreases in NO3 deposition were found in more developed watersheds, suggesting that decreasing atmospheric deposition may be related to NO3 trends at the more developed locations. Despite these improvements, fluxes of nitrogen to the coastal ocean have been largely static over the past several decades, underscoring the continuing need for nutrient management in many parts of the conterminous U.S.

Market shifts: assessing changes in hardwood demand

Treesearch

Matthew Bumgardner

2007-01-01

Hardwood lumber production has trended downward nationally since 1999 as marginal mills have closed and others have consolidated in response to market conditions. Still, forests throughout Ohio continue to provide multiple benefits to landowners and all Ohioans. Important changes are taking place in hardwood markets, both domestically and abroad. With a knowledge of...

U.S. Nuclear Engineering Education: Status and Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC. Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems.

This study examines the status of and outlook for nuclear engineering (NE) in the United States. The study resulted from a concern about the downward trends in student enrollments in NE, in both graduate and undergraduate programs. Concerns have also been expressed about the declining number of U.S. university NE departments and programs, the…

The Private Management of Public Schools: The Hartford, Connecticut, Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cazares, Patricia

During the early 1990s, the Hartford, Connecticut, public school system experienced serious financial problems and a downward trend in the key indicators of educational success. In 1994 the Hartford, Connecticut, board of education granted Education Alternatives, Incorporated (EAI), a 5-year contract to manage the school district. This paper…

Wildlife habitats in managed rangelands—the Great Basin of southeastern Oregon: sage grouse.

Treesearch

Mayo W. Call; Chris Maser

1985-01-01

Decreases in sage grouse followed the decrease in sagebrush. Other factors, such as unfavorable weather conditions at hatching time and increased predation, hunting, and disease have each been important at various times in localized areas but are probably not the most important factors in the overall downward trend.

Art and Design Practices in Nigeria: The Problem of Dropping Out

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogunduyile, Sunday Roberts; Kayode, Femi; Ojo, Bankole

2008-01-01

Despite interest in the arts, art and design practice in Nigeria continues to witness a downward trend. A new orientation and redirection of priorities, skills development, and patterns of practice that are not contradictory to the code of professional conduct and ethical procedures is contemplated. This paper groups the professionally trained…

TSNA levels in machine-generated mainstream cigarette smoke: 35 years of data.

PubMed

Appleton, Scott; Olegario, Raquel M; Lipowicz, Peter J

2013-07-01

This paper characterizes historical and current tobacco specific nitrosamine (TSNA) levels in mainstream (MS) cigarette smoke of US commercial cigarettes. To conduct this analysis, we gathered 35 years of published data of 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) and N-nitrosonornicotine (NNN) levels in MS cigarette smoke. We also assessed internal data of MS smoke NNK and NNN levels generated from various market monitoring initiatives and from control cigarettes used in a multi-year program for testing cigarette ingredients. In all, we analyzed machine smoking data from 401 cigarette samples representing a wide range of products and design characteristics from multiple manufacturers and market leaders. There was no indication that TSNA levels systematically increased in cigarette MS smoke over the 35-year analysis period. In particular, TSNA levels expressed as either per cigarette or normalized for tar suggest a downward trend in MS smoke over the past 10 years. The apparent downward trend in TSNA levels in MS smoke may reflect industry and agricultural community efforts to reduce levels of TSNAs in tobacco and cigarette smoke. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gastric cancer mortality trends in Spain, 1976-2005, differences by autonomous region and sex

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of oncologic death worldwide. One of the most noteworthy characteristics of this tumor's epidemiology is the marked decline reported in its incidence and mortality in almost every part of the globe in recent decades. This study sought to describe gastric cancer mortality time trends in Spain's regions for both sexes. Methods Mortality data for the period 1976 through 2005 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th revision (codes 151 and C16, respectively). Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated by geographic area, sex, and five-year period. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to ascertain whether changes in gastric cancer mortality trends had occurred, and to estimate the annual percent change by sex and geographic area. Results Gastric cancer mortality decreased across the study period, with the downward trend being most pronounced in women and in certain regions situated in the interior and north of mainland Spain. Across the study period, there was an overall decrease of 2.90% per annum among men and 3.65% per annum among women. Generally, regions in which the rate of decline was sharpest were those that had initially registered the highest rates. However, the rate of decline was not constant throughout the study period: joinpoint analysis detected a shift in trend for both sexes in the early 1980s. Conclusion Gastric cancer mortality displayed in both sexes a downward trend during the study period, both nationally and regionally. The different trend in rates in the respective geographic areas translated as greater regional homogeneity in gastric cancer mortality by the end of the study period. In contrast, rates in women fell more than did those in men. The increasing differences between the sexes could indicate that some risk factors may be modifying the sex-specific pattern of this tumor. PMID:19785726

Variations of Runoff and Sediment Load in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China (1950-2013)

PubMed Central

Li, Na; Wang, Lachun; Zeng, Chunfen; Wang, Dong; Liu, Dengfeng; Wu, Xutong

2016-01-01

On the basis of monthly runoff series obtained in 1950–2013 and annual sediment load measured in 1956–-2013 at five key hydrological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, this study used the Mann-Kendall methods to identify trend and abrupt changes of runoff and sediment load in relation to human activities. The results were as follows: (1) The annual and flood season runoffs showed significant decreasing trends at Yichang station, and showed slight downward trends at Hankou and Datong stations, while the abrupt changes of dry season runoff at Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations occurred in about 2007 and the change points were followed by significant increasing trends. The construction of the Three Gorges Dam, which began to operate in 2003, influenced the variations of runoff in the mainstream of Yangtze River, but the effect weakened with the distance along the downstream direction from TGD. (2) Since the 1990s, annual sediment loads at Yichang, Hankou, and Datong stations have been decreasing significantly, and after 2002, the annual sediment load at Yichang dropped below that of Hankou and Datong. The dams and deforestation/forestation contributed to the significant decreasing trend of the sediment load. In addition, the Three Gorges Dam aggravated the downward trend and caused the erosion of the riverbed and riverbanks in the middle and lower reaches. (3) The runoff and sediment load flowing from Dongting Lake into the mainstream of the Yangtze River showed significant decreasing trends at Chenglingji station after 1970s, and in contrast, slight increase in the sediment flow from Poyang Lake to the mainstream of the Yangtze River at Hukou station were detected over the post-TGD period (2003–2013). The result of the study will be an important foundation for watershed sustainable development of the Yangtze River under the human activities. PMID:27479591

Variations of Runoff and Sediment Load in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China (1950-2013).

PubMed

Li, Na; Wang, Lachun; Zeng, Chunfen; Wang, Dong; Liu, Dengfeng; Wu, Xutong

2016-01-01

On the basis of monthly runoff series obtained in 1950-2013 and annual sediment load measured in 1956--2013 at five key hydrological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, this study used the Mann-Kendall methods to identify trend and abrupt changes of runoff and sediment load in relation to human activities. The results were as follows: (1) The annual and flood season runoffs showed significant decreasing trends at Yichang station, and showed slight downward trends at Hankou and Datong stations, while the abrupt changes of dry season runoff at Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations occurred in about 2007 and the change points were followed by significant increasing trends. The construction of the Three Gorges Dam, which began to operate in 2003, influenced the variations of runoff in the mainstream of Yangtze River, but the effect weakened with the distance along the downstream direction from TGD. (2) Since the 1990s, annual sediment loads at Yichang, Hankou, and Datong stations have been decreasing significantly, and after 2002, the annual sediment load at Yichang dropped below that of Hankou and Datong. The dams and deforestation/forestation contributed to the significant decreasing trend of the sediment load. In addition, the Three Gorges Dam aggravated the downward trend and caused the erosion of the riverbed and riverbanks in the middle and lower reaches. (3) The runoff and sediment load flowing from Dongting Lake into the mainstream of the Yangtze River showed significant decreasing trends at Chenglingji station after 1970s, and in contrast, slight increase in the sediment flow from Poyang Lake to the mainstream of the Yangtze River at Hukou station were detected over the post-TGD period (2003-2013). The result of the study will be an important foundation for watershed sustainable development of the Yangtze River under the human activities.

Comprehensive evaluation of long-term trends in occupational exposure: Part 1. Description of the database

PubMed Central

Symanski, E.; Kupper, L. L.; Rappaport, S. M.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of long term changes in occupational exposure among a broad cross section of industries worldwide. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature identified studies that reported historical changes in exposure. About 700 sets of data from 119 published and several unpublished sources were compiled. Data were published over a 30 year period in 25 journals that spanned a range of disciplines. For each data set, the average exposure level was compiled for each period and details on the contaminant, the industry and location, changes in the threshold limit value (TLV), as well as the type of sampling method were recorded. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to identify monotonic changes in exposure over time and simple linear regression analyses were used to characterise trends in exposure. RESULTS: About 78% of the natural log transformed data showed linear trends towards lower exposure levels whereas 22% indicated increasing trends. (The Spearman rank correlation analyses produced a similar breakdown between exposures monotonically increasing or decreasing over time.) Although the rates of reduction for the data showing downward trends ranged from -1% to -62% per year, most exposures declined at rates between -4% and -14% per year (the interquartile range), with a median value of -8% per year. Exposures seemed to increase at rates that were slightly lower than those of exposures which have declined over time. Data sets that showed downward (versus upward) trends were influenced by several factors including type and carcinogenicity of the contaminant, type of monitoring, historical changes in the threshold limit values (TLVs), and period of sampling. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the notion that occupational exposures are generally lower today than they were years or decades ago. However, such trends seem to have been affected by factors related to the contaminant, as well as to the period and type of sampling.   PMID:9764107

The bark of the branches of holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) for a retrospective study of trace elements in the atmosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drava, Giuliana, E-mail: drava@difar.unige.it; Bri

Tree bark has proved to be a useful bioindicator for trace elements in the atmosphere, however it reflects an exposure occurring during an unidentified period of time, so it provides spatial information about the distribution of contaminants in a certain area, but it cannot be used to detect temporal changes or trends, which is an important achievement in environmental studies. In order to obtain information about a known period of time, the bark collected from the annual segments of tree branches can be used, allowing analyses going back 10–15 years with annual resolution. In the present study, the concentrations ofmore » As, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were measured by atomic emission spectrometry in a series of samples covering the period from 2001 to 2013 in an urban environment. Downward time trends were significant for Cd, Pb and Zn. The only trace element showing an upward time trend was V. The concentrations of the remaining six trace elements were constant over time, showing that their presence in bark is not simply proportional to the duration of exposure. This approach, which is simple, reliable and widely applicable at a low cost, allows the “a posteriori” reconstruction of atmospheric trace element deposition when or where no monitoring programme is in progress and no other natural archives are available. - Highlights: • Branch bark allows the historical reconstruction of atmospheric trace elements. • This approach is simple, reliable, widely applicable and “a posteriori”. • Downward time trends were found for Cd, Pb and Zn; upward trend for V.« less

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981-2000.

PubMed

Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2006-05-03

The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981-2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising trend in the east than in the west, and low rates on an upward trend in the south. The downward pattern observed for cohorts born after 1920-1930 in northern, western, and southern regions suggests more favourable trends in coming years, in contrast to the eastern countries where birth-cohort pattern remains upward.

Observational Evidence for Desert Amplification Using Multiple Satellite Datasets.

PubMed

Wei, Nan; Zhou, Liming; Dai, Yongjiu; Xia, Geng; Hua, Wenjian

2017-05-17

Desert amplification identified in recent studies has large uncertainties due to data paucity over remote deserts. Here we present observational evidence using multiple satellite-derived datasets that desert amplification is a real large-scale pattern of warming mode in near surface and low-tropospheric temperatures. Trend analyses of three long-term temperature products consistently confirm that near-surface warming is generally strongest over the driest climate regions and this spatial pattern of warming maximizes near the surface, gradually decays with height, and disappears in the upper troposphere. Short-term anomaly analyses show a strong spatial and temporal coupling of changes in temperatures, water vapor and downward longwave radiation (DLR), indicating that the large increase in DLR drives primarily near surface warming and is tightly associated with increasing water vapor over deserts. Atmospheric soundings of temperature and water vapor anomalies support the results of the long-term temperature trend analysis and suggest that desert amplification is due to comparable warming and moistening effects of the troposphere. Likely, desert amplification results from the strongest water vapor feedbacks near the surface over the driest deserts, where the air is very sensitive to changes in water vapor and thus efficient in enhancing the longwave greenhouse effect in a warming climate.

Change in Unusually Hot and Cold Temperatures in the Contiguous 48 States, 1948-2015

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This map shows trends in unusually hot and cold temperatures at individual weather stations that have operated consistently since 1948. In this case, the term ??unusually hot?? refers to a daily maximum temperature that is hotter than the 95th percentile temperature during the 1948??2015 period. Thus, the maximum temperature on a particular day at a particular station would be considered ??unusually hot?? if it falls within the warmest 5 percent of measurements at that station during the 1948??2015 period. The map shows changes in the total number of days per year that were hotter than the 95th percentile. Red upward-pointing symbols show where these unusually hot days are becoming more common. Blue downward-pointing symbols show where unusually hot days are becoming less common. For more information: www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators

Intra- and intergenerational social mobility in relation to height, weight and body mass index in a British national cohort.

PubMed

Krzyżanowska, Monika; Mascie-Taylor, C G Nicholas

2011-09-01

Using a sample of 2090 father and son pairs, the extent of intra- and inter-generational social mobility (migration between social classes) was examined over a 42-year period in a British cohort in relation to height, weight and body mass index (BMI). The mean height difference between the highest and lowest social class decreased from about 4 cm in the fathers' generation to about 3 cm in the sons' generation, indicating a decline in heterogeneity in height between classes. For fathers downward intra-generational social mobility ranged between 11% and 18% while between 16% and 26% were upwardly mobile; for sons 15% were downwardly mobile and 21% upwardly mobile. On average downwardly mobile fathers were shorter by between 0.1 cm and 0.7 cm while upwardly mobile fathers were taller by, on average, 0.6 cm to 1.7 cm. For sons, the downwardly mobile were on average 0.7 cm shorter and the upwardly mobile 0.8 cm taller. For weight and BMI there were no consistent relationships with intra-generational mobility in either the fathers' or sons' generations. Inter-generationally, between 18% and 19% of sons were downwardly mobile and between 39% and 40% were upwardly mobile; the downwardly mobile were shorter by about 0.9 cm and the upwardly taller by between 0.6 cm and 1.2 cm. Sons with higher BMI were more likely to be inter-generationally downwardly mobile.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-12-01

Extreme cyclone events often occur during Arctic winters, and are of concern as they transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, which is associated with mixed-phase clouds and increased longwave downward radiation, and can cause temperatures to rise above freezing resulting in wintertime sea-ice melting or retarded sea-ice growth. With Arctic amplification and associated reduced sea-ice cover and warmer sea surface temperatures, the occurrence of extreme cyclones events could be a plausible scenario. We calculate the spatial patterns, and changes and trends of the number of extreme cyclone events in the Arctic based on ERA-Interim six-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) data for winter (November-February) 1979-2015. Further, we analyze the SLP data from the Ny-Ålesund station for the same 37 year period. We define an extreme cyclone event by an extreme low central pressure (SLP below 985 hPa, which is the 5th percentile of the Ny-Ålesund/N-ICE2015 SLP data). Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called `weather bombs') occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade, according to the Ny-Ålesund data. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones drive considerable warming in that region, consistent with the observed significant winter warming of 3 K/decade. The positive winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as "blocking-like" circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Trends in atmospheric evaporative demand in Great Britain using high-resolution meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Emma L.; Blyth, Eleanor M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Finch, Jon; Rudd, Alison C.

2017-02-01

Observations of climate are often available on very different spatial scales from observations of the natural environments and resources that are affected by climate change. In order to help bridge the gap between these scales using modelling, a new dataset of daily meteorological variables was created at 1 km resolution over Great Britain for the years 1961-2012, by interpolating coarser resolution climate data and including the effects of local topography. These variables were used to calculate atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) at the same spatial and temporal resolution. Two functions that represent AED were chosen: one is a standard form of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and the other is a derived PET measure used by hydrologists that includes the effect of water intercepted by the canopy (PETI). Temporal trends in these functions were calculated, with PET found to be increasing in all regions, and at an overall rate of 0.021 ± 0.021 mm day-1 decade-1 in Great Britain. PETI was found to be increasing at a rate of 0.019 ± 0.020 mm day-1 decade-1 in Great Britain, but this was not statistically significant. However, there was a trend in PETI in England of 0.023 ± 0.023 mm day-1 decade-1. The trends were found to vary by season, with spring PET increasing by 0.043 ± 0.019 mm day-1 decade-1 (0.038 ± 0.018 mm day-1 decade-1 when the interception correction is included) in Great Britain, while there is no statistically significant trend in other seasons. The trends were attributed analytically to trends in the climate variables; the overall positive trend was predominantly driven by rising air temperature, although rising specific humidity had a negative effect on the trend. Recasting the analysis in terms of relative humidity revealed that the overall effect is that falling relative humidity causes the PET to rise. Increasing downward short- and longwave radiation made an overall positive contribution to the PET trend, while decreasing wind speed made a negative contribution to the trend in PET. The trend in spring PET was particularly strong due to a strong decrease in relative humidity and increase in downward shortwave radiation in the spring.

Longitudinal Examination of Links Between Risk Factors for the Metabolic Syndrome and Both Age and Fasting Glucose Levels in Nondiabetic Subjects.

PubMed

Preuss, Harry G; Kaats, Gilbert R; Mrvichin, Nate; Bagchi, Debasis; Swaroop, Anand

2018-01-01

Previous evaluations in nondiabetic subjects revealed statistically significant correlations between fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels used as an estimate of insulin resistance and many components constituting the metabolic syndrome. Similar significant correlations were not found employing chronological age as the independent variable in the same nondiabetic individuals. The major purpose here was to replicate as well as corroborate the previous cross-sectional observations, emphasizing results obtained from data collected longitudinally. Material was assessed from 99 nondiabetic volunteers who had undergone 2 separate baseline measurements carried out over a minimum of 5 and up to a maximum of 20 years. Findings from the starting baseline measurements mimicked many observations perceived in the earlier published cross-sectional material. The following correlations with elements constituting the metabolic syndrome using FBG as an independent variable were once more statistically significantly positive: scale weight, fat mass, circulating levels of triglycerides and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol was once again appropriately significant in a negative direction. In contrast, the same correlations were generally nonsignificant when age replaced FBG as the independent variable. Examining the 2 data sets over the 5-20-year intervals, FBG increased statistically significantly over time. However, the average increase clinically was relatively minor: -92.1 mg/dL ± 1.1 (SEM) vs 95.1 mg/dL ± 1.1 (SEM), p < 0.007. When the actual changes (delta) in the dependent parameters were correlated with the individual passages of time (intervals in years), only downward changes in aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels were statistically significant. Fat-free mass showed a trend downward, whereas fat mass, trunk fat, and triglycerides merely demonstrated trends upward. Current findings gathered over years are consistent with the original hypothesis that maintaining relatively low, stable circulating glucose levels during aging retards the development and intensity of many common manifestations of the metabolic syndrome.

[Some sex-specific problem under especially consideration of demographic and social-economic aspects (author's transl)].

PubMed

Brännström, M; Festbaum, G; Frille, D

1981-01-01

Demographic and social-economic trends are tightly linked together, the social-economic being the determinates of this trend. For that aim the direct pecuniary living conditions are analyzed more thoroughly than usual by means of a special demographic group. Now as before the mode of action and the accuracy of aim of social-politic measures are unclear. The downward trend of the degree of pensioner's employment is discussed in connection to concretly existing material living conditions with regard to better social security payment. Recommendations are given for elderly working people from the side of work hygiene, which will be planned and realized in our process of development.

Future Educational Programs and Employment Prospects in Information Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pollack, Thomas A.

2005-01-01

Over the past several years, we have experienced a rather dramatic downward turn in demand for entry level information technology (IT) professionals. However, reports of trends at the end of 2004 indicated that job postings for IT workers reached their highest levels since 2001. This occurs at a time when the number of four year degree programs in…

Pine growth reductions in the Southeast

Treesearch

Raymond M. Sheffield; Noel D. Cost; William A. Bechtold; Joe P. McClure

1985-01-01

Periodic timber inventories in the Southeastern United States indicate that net annual growth of softwood timber there has peaked and turned downward after a long upward trend. The most pronounced declines have been measured in the growth of the yellow pines on nonindustrial private forest land, which accounts for about 69 percent of the timberland in this five-state...

Integral leadership and signal detection for high reliability organizing and learning

Treesearch

J. M. Saveland

2005-01-01

In the last ten years, the fire management community has made significant advances in firefighter safety and leadership development. Yet, there is no discernible downward trend in entrapment fatalities. While the complexity of the job and exposure of an increasing number of firefighters to increasingly severe situations has surely increased over that time frame, the...

Timber harvesting, processing, and employment in the Northwest Economic Adjustment Initiative region: changes and economic assistance.

Treesearch

Terry L. Raettig; Harriet H. Christensen

1999-01-01

The Northwest economic adjustment initiative (NWEAI) provides economic assistance to a region including western Washington, western Oregon, and northern California. Timber harvests have fallen markedly in this region since 1990. The forest products industry is the largest manufacturing sector in the region, and employment has followed the downward trend in timber...

Evaluation of physical changes in wood during colonization by Ceriporiopsis submervispora

Treesearch

Chris Hunt; Alex Wiedenhoeft; Eric Horn; Carl Houtman

2001-01-01

Mechanical, chemical, and light microscopic methods were used to observe wood cell wall changes during colonization by Ceriporiopsis submervispora. Maximum crushing load, dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), and quantitative Simon’s staining were found to be the most useful methods for tracking biopulping action. MOE and loss modulus trended downward within 2 days of...

Invasive forest defoliator contributes to the impending downward trend of oak dominance in eastern North America

Treesearch

Randall S. Morin; Andrew M. Liebhold

2016-01-01

Disturbanceby non-native insect species can be an important ecological driver shaping long-term changes in vegetation and plant species composition. While impacts of gypsy moth (Lymatria dispar L.) outbreaks in North American forests have been extensively studied, the results are quite inconsistent, particularly with respect to the amount of tree...

Degrees Conferred by Schools and Colleges of Pharmacy for the Academic Year 1980-81.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chasin, Steven H.

1982-01-01

Degrees conferred in 72 pharmacy schools (B.S., B.Pharm., Pharm.D., M.S., Ph.D., and honorary) are tabulated by college, state, and region and ethnic/minority group. Overall, the number of degrees declined five percent, following a downward trend begun in 1977-78, with variation by specific degree. (MSE)

Permanent Shift?: Library Budgets 2010

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oder, Norman

2010-01-01

It's no surprise that libraries in "LJ"'s annual budget survey reported an overall downward trend, with the expected decline in total budgets some 2.6% and the change in materials budgets 3.5%. Per capita funding is nudging down after years of steady if sometimes modest increases, with a projected decline of 1.6% in FY10. After all, the country…

An Analysis of the Strategic Planning Efforts of (Arch)Dioceses with Similar Demographic Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Semmler, Carl A.

2016-01-01

The population of the Catholic elementary schools has been on the downward trend for over half a century. Various Catholic (arch)dioceses have responded by creating strategic plans for their elementary and secondary institutions of education. Shifts in demographics and population migration have been noted in both secular and non-secular data.…

Maternal, neonatal, and child health in southeast Asia: towards greater regional collaboration.

PubMed

Acuin, Cecilia S; Khor, Geok Lin; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan; Achadi, Endang L; Htay, Thein Thein; Firestone, Rebecca; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A

2011-02-05

Although maternal and child mortality are on the decline in southeast Asia, there are still major disparities, and greater equity is key to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. We used comparable cross-national data sources to document mortality trends from 1990 to 2008 and to assess major causes of maternal and child deaths. We present inequalities in intervention coverage by two common measures of wealth quintiles and rural or urban status. Case studies of reduction in mortality in Thailand and Indonesia indicate the varying extents of success and point to some factors that accelerate progress. We developed a Lives Saved Tool analysis for the region and for country subgroups to estimate deaths averted by cause and intervention. We identified three major patterns of maternal and child mortality reduction: early, rapid downward trends (Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand); initially high declines (sustained by Vietnam but faltering in the Philippines and Indonesia); and high initial rates with a downward trend (Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar). Economic development seems to provide an important context that should be coupled with broader health-system interventions. Increasing coverage and consideration of the health-system context is needed, and regional support from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations can provide increased policy support to achieve maternal, neonatal, and child health goals. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Haemoglobin recovery among HIV-1 infected patients on zidovudine-based antiretroviral therapy and other regimens in north-central Nigeria.

PubMed

Parrish, Deidra D; Blevins, Meridith; Megazzini, Karen M; Shepherd, Bryan E; Mohammed, Mukhtar Y; Wester, C William; Vermund, Sten H; Aliyu, Muktar H

2014-04-01

We conducted a study to assess trends in haemoglobin recovery among HIV-infected patients initiated on zidovudine-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) stratified by baseline haemoglobin level. Haemoglobin data from non-pregnant adult patients initiating cART in rural north-central Nigeria between June 2009 and May 2011 were analysed using a linear mixed effects model to assess the interaction between time, zidovudine-containing regimen and baseline haemoglobin level on the outcome of subsequent haemoglobin level. Best-fit curves were created for baseline haemoglobin in the 10th, 25th, 75th and 90th percentiles. We included 313 patients with 736 measures of haemoglobin in the analysis (239 on zidovudine and 74 on non-zidovudine-containing regimens). Median haemoglobin increased over time in both groups, with differences in haemoglobin response over time related to baseline haemoglobin levels and zidovudine use (p = 0.003). The groups of patients on zidovudine at the 10th and 90th percentiles had downward sloping curves while all other groups had upward trending haemoglobin levels. Although haemoglobin levels increased overall for patients on zidovudine-containing regimens, for those in the 10th and 90th percentiles haemoglobin levels trended downward over time. These results have implications for decisions regarding when to initiate, switch from or avoid the use of zidovudine.

[Remote sensing analysis of ecological change caused by construction of the new island city: Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, Fujian Province].

PubMed

Wen, Xiao-le; Lin, Zheng-feng; Tang, Fei

2015-02-01

Pingtan Island was officially established as the 'Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone of Fujian' in 2010, and it led to a surge of construction in the island city. Based on the Landsat-5 images for 2007 and the latest Landsat-8 images for 2013, this paper studied the ecological status, the temporal trends of the ecological changes and the reasons for those changes in Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone at its early stage of construction, by using the remote sensing of ecological index (RSEI). The results showed that as an ecologically fragile area, Pingtan Island had a moderate level of overall ecological status. In the early construction period (from 2007 to 2013), the ecological status of the island showed a downward trend, with a 14% drop of RSEI from 0.511 in 2007 down to 0.450 in 2013, and approximately 36.5% of the area of the island faced the degradation of ecological status, which mainly occurred in the central and southwestern parts of the island. The reason for the degradation was mainly due to the large-scale construction which further damaged the scarce vegetation on the island. Therefore, in order to curb the downward trend of the ecological quality of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, some effective ecological protection measures must be developed and implemented during the construction.

Secular trend of sex ratio and symptom patterns among children with autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Baker, Sidney M; Milivojevich, Andrew; Kraycar, Theresa; Holt, Brett; Gade, Satya

2014-05-01

An information technology invention embodied in a website serving the interests of the autism community was designed to "let the data talk." By its use, the authors have detected a downward temporal trend in 2013 in the sex ratio of 2431 members of Autism360.org from a yearly average between 2010 and 2012 of 4.24 to 3.01 in 2013. As of the first two months of 2014, the average sex ratio is 2.69. We report contemporaneous changes in previously reported male vs female symptom patterns. Such changes suggest a convergence in which distinctive severity of certain grouped central nervous, emotional, and immune profile items in females have diminished toward that of males. The data also show correlations among these profile items that add further credence to the sex ratio findings. A wider dispersion of the female data as compared with the male data was found in the year preceding the downward trend in the mean sex ratio. The authors suggest that such a trend toward an increase in the variance of the data points to instability in the biological system-the autism spectrum. We conclude that public policy would be better served by monitoring changes in the standard deviation as compared with the mean in large data sets to better anticipate changes. The findings we report raise questions based on known sex differences in detoxification chemistry. One such question would be whether maternal, fetal, or individual exposure to a novel environmental factor may have breached the taller fence of female protection from toxins.

Origins and trends in ethane and propane in the United Kingdom from 1993 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derwent, R. G.; Field, R. A.; Dumitrean, P.; Murrells, T. P.; Telling, S. P.

2017-05-01

Continuous, high frequency in situ observations of ethane and propane began in the United Kingdom in 1993 and have continued through to the present day at a range of kerbside, urban background and rural locations. Whilst other monitored C2 - C8 hydrocarbons have shown dramatic declines in concentrations by close to or over an order of magnitude, ethane and propane levels have remained at or close to their 1993 values. Urban ethane sources appear to be dominated by natural gas leakage. Background levels of ethane associated with long range transport are rising. However, natural gas leakage is not the sole source of urban propane. Oil and gas operations lead to elevated propane levels in urban centres when important refinery operations are located nearby. Weekend versus weekday average diurnal curves for ethane and propane at an urban background site in London show the importance of natural gas leakage for both ethane and propane, and road traffic sources for propane. The road traffic source of propane was tentatively identified as arising from petrol-engined motor vehicle refuelling and showed a strong downwards trend at the long-running urban background and rural sites. The natural gas leakage source of ethane and propane in the observations exhibits an upwards trend whereas that in the UK emission inventory trends downwards. Also, inventory emissions for natural gas leakage appeared to be significantly underestimated compared with the observations. In addition, the observed ethane to propane ratio found here for natural gas leakage strongly disagreed with the inventory ratio.

Mortality reduction associated with HIV/AIDS care and antiretroviral treatment in rural Malawi: evidence from registers, coffin sales and funerals.

PubMed

Mwagomba, Beatrice; Zachariah, Rony; Massaquoi, Moses; Misindi, Dalitso; Manzi, Marcel; Mandere, Bester C; Bemelmans, Marielle; Philips, Mit; Kamoto, Kelita; Schouten, Eric J; Harries, Anthony D

2010-05-04

To report on the trend in all-cause mortality in a rural district of Malawi that has successfully scaled-up HIV/AIDS care including antiretroviral treatment (ART) to its population, through corroborative evidence from a) registered deaths at traditional authorities (TAs), b) coffin sales and c) church funerals. Retrospective study in 5 of 12 TAs (covering approximately 50% of the population) during the period 2000-2007. A total of 210 villages, 24 coffin workshops and 23 churches were included. There were a total of 18,473 registered deaths at TAs, 15781 coffins sold, and 2762 church funerals. Between 2000 and 2007, there was a highly significant linear downward trend in death rates, sale of coffins and church funerals (X(2) for linear trend: 338.4 P<0.0001, 989 P<0.0001 and 197, P<0.0001 respectively). Using data from TAs as the most reliable source of data on deaths, overall death rate reduction was 37% (95% CI:33-40) for the period. The mean annual incremental death rate reduction was 0.52/1000/year. Death rates decreased over time as the percentage of people living with HIV/AIDS enrolled into care and ART increased. Extrapolating these data to the entire district population, an estimated 10,156 (95% CI: 9786-10259) deaths would have been averted during the 8-year period. Registered deaths at traditional authorities, the sale of coffins and church funerals showed a significant downward trend over a 8-year period which we believe was associated with the scaling up HIV/AIDS care and ART.

Correlation of white female breast cancer incidence trends with nitrogen dioxide emission levels and motor vehicle density patterns.

PubMed

Chen, Fan; Bina, William F

2012-02-01

The long-term trend of female breast cancer incidence rates in the United States and some European countries demonstrates a similar pattern: an increasing trend in the last century followed by a declining trend in this century. The well-known risk factors cannot explain this trend. We compared the breast cancer incidence trends obtained from SEER data with the trend of nitrogen dioxides (NOx) emission and monitoring data as well as motor vehicle density data. The upward followed by downward trend of NOx is similar to the breast cancer incidence trend but with an offset of 20 years earlier. Motor vehicles are the major source of NOx emissions. The geographic distribution of motor vehicles density in 1970 in the observed US counties is positively correlated with breast cancer incidence rates (R(2) 0.8418, the correlation coefficient = 0.9175) in 1980-1995. Because both the time trend and geographic pattern are associated with breast cancer incidence rates, further studies on the relationship between breast cancer and air pollution are needed.

Quantifying the Uncertainties of Reanalyzed Arctic Cloud-radiation Properties Using Satellite-surface Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.; Dolinar, E. K.; Stanfield, R.

2015-12-01

Cloud and radiation processes are very important issues in Arctic climate system. Reanalyses have proved to be the essential tools to study extreme weather and climate events, especially in data-sparse region like the Arctic. Before using reanalyses products, their strengths and uncertainties should be identified. In this study, five recent reanalyses (JRA55, 20CR V2c, CFSR, ERA-Interim and MERRA) are compared with NASA CERES satellite observations with respect of cloud fraction (CF), top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface longwave (LW)/shortwave (SW) radiation fluxes during the period of 03/2000-02/2012 over the Arctic (70-90°N). 20CR V2c, CFSR, ERA-Interim and MERRA overestimate CFs, particularly during the cold season, with the positive biases of annual means from +9.6% (MERRA) to +22.9% (20CR V2c). Only JRA55 can represent its overall seasonal variation and spatial distribution but with large negative biases (nearly -15%). All reanalyses can well capture the seasonal trend of TOA SW/LW upwelling fluxes. However, in all-sky condition, all of them show positive biases of TOA SW upwelling flux along northern and eastern coasts in Greenland during the warm season (JJA). There is a good agreement between reanalyses and observation in seasonal cycle of net TOA cloud radiative effects (CRE), which are calculated by TOA SW/LW fluxes. The spatial distributions of net TOA CRE in warm season show that only JRA55 and ERA-Interim are relatively consistent with their reanalyzed CFs. As for the surface radiation, the satellite-derived results were firstly validated by Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) ground-based observations. It illustrates that average biases of satellite retrievals are +9.85 W/m2 for surface downward SW flux and +0.39 W/m2 for downward LW flux in warm season within the Arctic. The seasonal variation of SW/LW fluxes can be well represented by four of five reanalyses except MERRA. Reanalyzed surface downward SW flux in JRA55, CFSR and ERA-Interim are relatively consistent with their CF results among these reanalyses. However, the biases in TOA and surface radiation fluxes cannot only explained by biased CFs in some of reanalyses.

Social comparison in the brain: A coordinate-based meta-analysis of functional brain imaging studies on the downward and upward comparisons.

PubMed

Luo, Yi; Eickhoff, Simon B; Hétu, Sébastien; Feng, Chunliang

2018-01-01

Social comparison is ubiquitous across human societies with dramatic influence on people's well-being and decision making. Downward comparison (comparing to worse-off others) and upward comparison (comparing to better-off others) constitute two types of social comparisons that produce different neuropsychological consequences. Based on studies exploring neural signatures associated with downward and upward comparisons, the current study utilized a coordinate-based meta-analysis to provide a refinement of understanding about the underlying neural architecture of social comparison. We identified consistent involvement of the ventral striatum and ventromedial prefrontal cortex in downward comparison and consistent involvement of the anterior insula and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex in upward comparison. These findings fit well with the "common-currency" hypothesis that neural representations of social gain or loss resemble those for non-social reward or loss processing. Accordingly, we discussed our findings in the framework of general reinforcement learning (RL) hypothesis, arguing how social gain/loss induced by social comparisons could be encoded by the brain as a domain-general signal (i.e., prediction errors) serving to adjust people's decisions in social settings. Although the RL account may serve as a heuristic framework for the future research, other plausible accounts on the neuropsychological mechanism of social comparison were also acknowledged. Hum Brain Mapp 39:440-458, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Rapid Decline in Carbon Monoxide Emissions and Export from East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, B.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Yin, Y.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Q.; He, K.

2017-12-01

MOPITT satellite- and ground-based measurements both suggest of a widespread downward trend in CO concentrations over East Asia during the period 2005-2016. This negative trend is inconsistent with bottom-up inventories of CO emissions, which show a small increase or stable emissions in this region, except for the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC). We try to reconcile the observed CO trend with emission inventories using an inversion of the MOPITT CO data that provides emissions from primary sources, secondary CO production, and chemical sinks of CO. We find that the decreasing trend of -0.41% yr-1 for CO column concentrations over East Asia is mainly due to a -2.51% yr-1 decrease in emissions from primary sources over this region, or a cumulative decline of -32% from 2005 to 2016. This emission decrease is enough to counterbalance the effect of rising concentrations of CH4 in East Asia, that increase the secondary CO formation at a rate of 1.56% yr-1, according to our multispecies inversion. The reducing emissions are mainly contributed by China. The MEIC inventory is the only one to be consistent with the inversion-diagnosed regional decrease of CO emissions. According to this inventory, decreased CO emissions from four main sectors (iron and steel industries, residential sources, gasoline vehicles, and construction materials industries) in China explain 76% of the inversion-based trend of emissions from East Asia. This result suggests that global inventories underestimated the recent decrease of CO emission factors in China which occurred despite the increasing consumption of carbon-based fuels, and is driven by fast technological changes and emission control measures.

Evaluating Arctic warming mechanisms in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franzke, Christian L. E.; Lee, Sukyoung; Feldstein, Steven B.

2017-05-01

Arctic warming is one of the most striking signals of global warming. The Arctic is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth and constitutes, thus, a good test bed to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce the physics and dynamics involved in Arctic warming. Different physical and dynamical mechanisms have been proposed to explain Arctic amplification. These mechanisms include the surface albedo feedback and poleward sensible and latent heat transport processes. During the winter season when Arctic amplification is most pronounced, the first mechanism relies on an enhancement in upward surface heat flux, while the second mechanism does not. In these mechanisms, it has been proposed that downward infrared radiation (IR) plays a role to a varying degree. Here, we show that the current generation of CMIP5 climate models all reproduce Arctic warming and there are high pattern correlations—typically greater than 0.9—between the surface air temperature (SAT) trend and the downward IR trend. However, we find that there are two groups of CMIP5 models: one with small pattern correlations between the Arctic SAT trend and the surface vertical heat flux trend (Group 1), and the other with large correlations (Group 2) between the same two variables. The Group 1 models exhibit higher pattern correlations between Arctic SAT and 500 hPa geopotential height trends, than do the Group 2 models. These findings suggest that Arctic warming in Group 1 models is more closely related to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, whereas in Group 2, the albedo feedback effect plays a more important role. Interestingly, while Group 1 models have a warm or weak bias in their Arctic SAT, Group 2 models show large cold biases. This stark difference in model bias leads us to hypothesize that for a given model, the dominant Arctic warming mechanism and trend may be dependent on the bias of the model mean state.

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch rates and trends, 1991-2011.

PubMed

Lagueux, Cynthia J; Campbell, Cathi L; Strindberg, Samantha

2014-01-01

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity.

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, Fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch Rates and Trends, 1991–2011

PubMed Central

Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Strindberg, Samantha

2014-01-01

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity. PMID:24740258

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004-2014: a multi-exponential approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandolfi, Marco; Alastuey, Andrés; Pérez, Noemi; Reche, Cristina; Castro, Iria; Shatalov, Victor; Querol, Xavier

2016-09-01

In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background), located in the northeast (NE) of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004-2014) were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann-Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10) showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN) and Montseny (MSY) during 2004-2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V-Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic) and from the industrial (metallurgy mainly) source at BCN. These sources were clearly linked with anthropogenic activities, and the observed decreasing trends confirmed the effectiveness of pollution control measures implemented at European or regional/local levels. Conversely, at regional level, the contributions from sources mostly linked with natural processes, such as aged marine and aged organics, did not show statistically significant trends. The trends observed for the PM10 source contributions reflected the trends observed for the chemical tracers of these pollutant sources well.

Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

Forest statistics for Southwest Georgia, 1971

Treesearch

Herbert A. Knight

1971-01-01

Acreage of commercial forest land in this 22-county area has declined by 180,000 acres. or almost 6 percent, since 1960. Over this same period, volume of growing-stock timber increased by 581 million cubic feet, or almost 27 percent, reversing a downward trend in volume between 1951 and 1960. Softwoods have accounted for 85 percent of this net gain in volume. In 1970...

Marital and Family Characteristics of Workers, March 1974.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bureau of Labor Statistics (DOL), Washington, DC.

The Special Labor Force Report shows a substantial rise in the labor force participation rates of married women and single and divorced persons. Also explored is the downward trend of married men (55 years old or over) as members of the labor force. This decline was due mainly to early retirements and to some extent to a rising incidence of…

Business Education Practices and Trends: A Literature Review. SIDRU Research Report No. 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bujea, Eleanor

The findings of a literature review of business education in Great Britain, the United States, and Canada were as follows: business education will be in greater demand in the high school and it will be extended downward into the elementary school and upward into the postsecondary institutes, especially in the areas of keyboarding and computer…

Adolescent Substance Use: Reviewing the Effectiveness of Prevention Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skiba, David; Monroe, Jacquelyn; Wodarski, John S.

2004-01-01

U.S. youths continue to use alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs at alarmingly high rates despite a temporary downward trend in the 1980s. Among an average 500,000 individuals affected annually by substance use, youths (ages 12 to 18) rank as one of the highest groups in morbidity and mortality rates, resulting in many negative consequences. As a…

Farm Population Estimates for 1977. Rural Development Research Report No. 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banks, Vera J.

The U.S. farm population continued its long-term downward trend during 1977, indicating that the population growth characteristic of nonmetropolitan counties since 1970 has not extended to population living on farms. In the 12-month period centered on April 1977, the farm population was 7,806,000, or 450,000 fewer farm residents (5.4%) than in…

Farm Population of the United States: 1982.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banks, Vera J.; Mills, Karen M.

1983-01-01

According to estimates prepared by the Bureau of the Census and the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture, the 1982 farm population of 5,620,000, or 2.4% of the national population, continued a long downward trend. About 45% of farm residents lived in the North Central region, 35% in the South, 13% in the West,…

What Counts as Quality in Education? Australian College of Educators (ACE) National Conference Proceedings (Adelaide, Australia, September 11-12, 2014)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ghirelli, Paola S., Ed.

2014-01-01

The 2014 Australian College of Educators (ACE) National Conference was held September 11-12 in Adelaide, Australia, with the theme, "What counts as quality in education?" There has been concern with a general downward trend in Australia's performance on international measures of student achievement, but there is equal concern over the…

Length of Working Life for Men and Women, 1970. Special Labor Force Report 187. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fullerton, Howard N., Jr.; Byrne, James J.

Noting that data from 1970 working life tables indicate that since 1960 worklife expectancy has continued to edge downward for men and to lengthen for women, this report briefly discusses continuing trends in the worklife of men and women from 1900 through 1970. Women's worklife is presented in terms of single women; mothers; widowed, divorced,…

The influence of the Chinese zodiac on fertility in Hong Kong SAR.

PubMed

Yip, Paul S F; Lee, Joseph; Cheung, Y B

2002-11-01

The annual total of births in Hong Kong SAR fell substantially in the past 20 years; hence the total fertility rate (TFR) followed the downward trend and dropped to a low of 0.9 below replacement level in 2000. Despite the long-term downward trend, short-run increases in the annual total of births and the TFR were exhibited. Such temporary fertility increases are identified in the Dragon Years of 1988 and 2000. The phenomenon of fertility changes associated with zodiacal animal years is examined in this paper with a view to gaining some insight into whether Chinese cultural preferences and folklore beliefs might have influenced prospective parents' reproductive behaviour. The paper explains the underlying philosophy of the Chinese astrological tradition and discusses how zodiacal preferences affect fertility between 1976 and 2000. The paper also explores why zodiacal influences on Chinese fertility before 1976 did not exist. It is unquestionable that the Dragon Year preference exerts an influence on fertility of modern Chinese populations through zodiacal birth-timing motivations. Birth rate rise in the Dragon Year is due to changes in timing of births that will have little effect on cumulative fertility.

Long-term response of surface water acid neutralizing capacity in a central Appalachian (USA) river basin to declining acid deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kline, Kathleen M.; Eshleman, Keith N.; Garlitz, James E.; U'Ren, Sarah H.

2016-12-01

Long-term changes in acid-base chemistry resulting from declining regional acid deposition were examined using data from repeating synoptic surveys conducted within the 275 km2 Upper Savage River Watershed (USRW) in western Maryland (USA); a randomly-selected set of 40 stream reaches was sampled 36 times between 1999 and 2014 to: (1) repeatedly characterize the acid-base status of the entire river basin; (2) determine whether an extensive network of streams of varying order has shown signs of recovery in acid neutralizing capacity (ANC); and (3) understand the key factors controlling the rate of ANC recovery across the river network. Several non-parametric analyses of trends (i.e., Mann Kendall Trend: MKT tests; and Regional Kendall Trend: RKT) in streamwater acid-base chemistry suggest that USRW has significantly responded to declining acid deposition during the study period; the two most robust, statistically significant trends were decreasing surface water SO42- (∼1.5 μeq L-1 yr-1) and NO3- (∼1 μeq L-1 yr-1) concentrations-consistent with observed downward trends in regional wet S and N deposition. Basin-wide decreasing trends in K+, Mg2+, and Ca2+ were also observed, while Na+ concentrations increased. Significant ANC recovery was observed in 10-20% of USRW stream reaches (depending on the p level used), but the magnitude of the trend relative to natural variability was apparently insufficient to allow detection of a basin-wide ANC trend using the RKT test. Watershed factors, such as forest disturbances and increased application of road deicing salts, appeared to contribute to substantial variability in concentrations of NO3- and Na+ in streams across the basin, but these factors did not affect our overall interpretation of the results as a systematic recovery of USRW from regional acidification. Methodologically, RKT appears to be a robust method for identifying basin-wide trends using synoptic data, but MKT results for individual systems should be examined closely (e.g., to identify trends for specific subpopulations).

Fraser River watershed, Colorado : assessment of available water-quantity and water-quality data through water year 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Apodaca, Lori Estelle; Bails, Jeffrey B.

1999-01-01

The water-quantity and water-quality data for the Fraser River watershed through water year 1997 were compiled for ground-water and surface-water sites. In order to assess the water-quality data, the data were related to land use/land cover in the watershed. Data from 81 water-quantity and water-quality sites, which consisted of 9 ground-water sites and 72 surface-water sites, were available for analysis. However, the data were limited and frequently contained only one or two water-quality analyses per site.The Fraser River flows about 28 miles from its headwaters at the Continental Divide to the confluence with the Colorado River. Ground-water resources in the watershed are used for residential and municipal drinking-water supplies. Surface water is available for use, but water diversions in the upper parts of the watershed reduce the flow in the river. Land use/land cover in the watershed is predominantly forested land, but increasing urban development has the potential to affect the quantity and quality of the water resources.Analysis of the limited ground-water data in the watershed indicates that changes in the land use/land cover affect the shallow ground-water quality. Water-quality data from eight shallow monitoring wells in the alluvial aquifer show that iron and manganese concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary maximum contaminant level. Radon concentrations from these monitoring wells exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed maximum contaminant level. The proposed radon contaminant level is currently being revised. The presence of volatile organic compounds at two monitoring wells in the watershed indicates that land use affects the shallow ground water. In addition, bacteria detected in three samples are at concentrations that would be a concern for public health if the water was to be used as a drinking supply. Methylene blue active substances were detected in the ground water at some sites and are a possible indication of contamination from wastewater. Age of the alluvial ground water ranged from 10 to 30 years; therefore, results of land-management practices to improve water quality may not be apparent for many years.Surface-water-quality data for the Fraser River watershed are sparse. The surface-water-quality data show that elevated concentrations of selected constituents generally are related to specific land uses in the watershed. For one sample (about 2 percent; 1 of 53), dissolved manganese concentration exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary maximum contaminant level. Two samples from two surface-water sites in the watershed exceeded the un-ionized ammonia chronic criterion. Spatial distribution of nutrient species (ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and total phosphorus) shows that elevated concentrations occur primarily downstream from urban areas. Sites with five or more years of record were analyzed for temporal trends in concentration of nutrient species. Downward trends were identified for ammonia and nitrite for three surface-water sites. For nitrate, no trends were observed at two sites and a downward trend was observed at one site. Total phosphorus showed no trend for the site near the mouth of the Fraser River. Downward trends in the nutrient species may reflect changes in the wastewater-treatment facilities in the watershed. Bacteria sampling completed in the watershed indicates that more bacteria are present in the water near urban settings.The limited ground-water and surface-water data for the Fraser River watershed provide a general assessment of the quantity and quality of these resources. Concentrations of most water-quality constituents generally are less than ground- and surface-water-quality standards, but the presence of bacteria, some volatile organic compounds, methylene blue active substances, and increased nutrients in the water may indicate that land use is affecting the water quality..

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics in Hawaii, 1913-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. In Hawaii, surface-water resources are developed for both offstream uses (for example, drinking water, agriculture, and industrial uses) and instream uses (for example, maintenance of habitat and ecosystems, recreational activities, aesthetic values, maintenance of water quality, conveyance of irrigation and domestic water supplies, and protection of traditional and customary Hawaiian rights). Possible long-term trends in streamflow characteristics have important implications for water users, water suppliers, resource managers, and citizens in the State. Proper management of Hawaii's streams requires an understanding of long-term trends in streamflow characteristics and their potential implications. Effects of long-term downward trends in low flows in streams include potential loss of habitat for native stream fauna and reduced water availability for offstream and instream water uses. Effects of long-term upward trends in high flows in streams include construction of bridges and water-conveyance structures that are potentially unsafe if they are not designed with proper consideration of trends in high flows.

Nitrogen Dioxide Trend over the United States: the View from the Ground, the View from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Krotkov, Nickolay A.

2014-01-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are decreasing over the US due to environmental policies and technological change. We use observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite instrument and surface NO2 in-situ measurements from the air quality system (AQS) to quantify the trends, and to establish the relationship between the trends in tropospheric column and surface concentration. Both observations show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 35 percent according to OMI and 38 percent according to AQS. The annual reduction rates are largest in 2005-2009: -6.2 percent per year and -7 percent per year observed by OMI and AQS, respectively. We examine various factors affecting the estimated trend in OMI NO2 columns and in-situ NO2 observations. An improved understanding of trend offers valuable insights about effectiveness of emission reduction regulations on state and federal level.

Biomonitoring of metals under the water framework directive: detecting temporal trends and abrupt changes, in relation to the removal of pollution sources.

PubMed

Solaun, O; Rodríguez, J G; Borja, A; González, M; Saiz-Salinas, J I

2013-02-15

Temporal trends in metal concentrations, i.e. Ag, Cd, Cu, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn, measured in soft tissues of Mytilus galloprovincialis mussels and Crassostrea gigas oysters collected from estuarine waters within the Basque Country (Bay of Biscay), have been investigated to determine if actions undertaken have improved the environmental quality of rivers and estuaries. Data compiled between 1990 and 2010 have been analysed statistically, applying the Mann-Kendall and the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon tests. Moreover, in those cases with significant trends, the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko Adaptive (KZA) filter was applied to detect abrupt changes. Results showed significant decreasing trends for some metals, i.e. Ni, Cu, Pb and Zn, and differences between medians. Trend lines showed abrupt changes occurring between 1998 and 2002. Therefore, observed downward trends were related to increased wastewater treatment and diversions of discharges to ocean, implemented mainly during 2000-2002. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aerial Rotation Effects on Vertical Jump Performance Among Highly Skilled Collegiate Soccer Players.

PubMed

Barker, Leland A; Harry, John R; Dufek, Janet S; Mercer, John A

2017-04-01

Barker, LA, Harry, JR, Dufek, JS, and Mercer, JA. Aerial rotation effects on vertical jump performance among highly skilled collegiate soccer players. J Strength Cond Res 31(4): 932-938, 2017-In soccer matches, jumps involving rotations occur when attempting to head the ball for a shot or pass from set pieces, such as corner kicks, goal kicks, and lob passes. However, the 3-dimensional ground reaction forces used to perform rotational jumping tasks are currently unknown. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to compare bilateral, 3-dimensional, and ground reaction forces of a standard countermovement jump (CMJ0) with those of a countermovement jump with a 180° rotation (CMJ180) among Division-1 soccer players. Twenty-four participants from the soccer team of the University of Nevada performed 3 trials of CMJ0 and CMJ180. Dependent variables included jump height, downward and upward phase times, vertical (Fz) peak force and net impulse relative to mass, and medial-lateral and anterior-posterior force couple values. Statistical significance was set a priori at α = 0.05. CMJ180 reduced jump height, increased the anterior-posterior force couple in the downward and upward phases, and increased upward peak Fz (p ≤ 0.05). All other variables were not significantly different between groups (p > 0.05). However, we did recognize that downward peak Fz trended lower in the CMJ0 condition (p = 0.059), and upward net impulse trended higher in the CMJ0 condition (p = 0.071). It was concluded that jump height was reduced during the rotational jumping task, and rotation occurred primarily via AP ground reaction forces through the entire countermovement jump. Coaches and athletes may consider additional rotational jumping in their training programs to mediate performance decrements during rotational jump tasks.

Glacial inception during the late Holocene without carbon emissions from early agriculture: lessons from the stage-19 glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Tzedakis, P. C.

2013-12-01

Decreases in orbitally-forced summer insolation along with downward trends in greenhouse gases (GHG) have been precursors to incipient glaciation in the past. In the last several thousand years of the current interglacial, while summer insolation has decreased, there was a reversal of the downward trends in CH4 and CO2 concentration within the Holocene around 5,000 and 7,000 years ago. While the cause of this reversal remains unresolved, a leading hypothesis is Ruddiman's Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis that early agriculture, starting several thousand years ago, caused emissions of GHG large enough to reverse natural downward trends in CO2 and CH4 and kept Earth's climate anomalously warm, with the corollary that this may have prevented incipient glaciation during the late Holocene. Here we use the 1-degree, fully coupled Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) with climate forcings (orbital parameters and GHG) of a previous glacial inception to investigate whether glacial inception should have occurred prior to the industrial revolution if the concentrations of CH4 and CO2 had followed their natural downward trends throughout the Holocene. Tzedakis et al. [2012] show that for the previous eight interglacials, Stage 11 and Stage 19 are the best analogs of the Holocene because of their low eccentricities, and Stage 19 is a better analog than Stage 11 for the Holocene due to the in-phase relationship between obliquity and precession. Furthermore, their study suggests that 777 ka BP (777,000 years before present) is the timing of glacial inception for Stage 19, based on the occurrence of the earliest bipolar seesaw event associated with glacial melting. Not only do the orbital parameters at 777 ka BP resemble pre-industrial conditions, but the concentrations of CO2 at that time were essentially the same as their expected 'natural' pre-industrial values in the absence of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. Our multi-millennial coupled CCSM4 simulations show that the 'natural' climatic forcings (GHG, orbital parameters) during pre-industrial (corresponding here to year 1850) produce essentially the same global climate as at the glacial inception of Stage 19. The simulation of 'natural' pre-industrial climate also produces similar Northern Hemisphere permanent snow cover as at the glacial inception of Stage 19, which is almost twice as large as the permanent snow in the CCSM4 control run with observed year-1850 GHG concentrations. We also found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slows down in the simulations of the glacial inceptions and contributes to the strong cooling and growth of permanent snow cover in Northern Hemisphere polar regions. Our study provides supports for the overdue glaciation hypothesis that early agriculture may have prevented incipient glaciation during the late Holocene. Tzedakis, P. C., J. E. T. Channell, D. A. Hodell, H. F. Kleiven, and L. C. Skinner (2012), Determining the natural length of the current interglacial, Nature Geoscience, 5(2), 138-141.

Twelve-year prevalence of common neonatal congenital malformations in Zhejiang Province, China.

PubMed

Sun, Ge; Xu, Zhe-Ming; Liang, Jian-Feng; Li, Lin; Tang, Da-Xing

2011-11-01

One of the challenges that pediatricians face when examining birth defects is to understand the trends in its occurrence and provide clues to etiology. This study was undertaken to retrospectively assess the prevalence of 10 common neonatal congenital malformations by reviewing a database of all deliveries from 28 weeks up until 7 days of birth from January 1998 to December 2009 in Zhejiang Province, China. Ten common neonatal congenital malformations were selected for analysis. The incidence and the Cochran-Armitage Trend were assessed via SAS9.2. A P value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. Of 83 888 perinatals, 374 (4.46‰) suffered from congenital heart diseases (CHD), 77 (0.92‰) from congenital hydrocephalus, 32 (0.38‰) from intestinal atresia/stenosis, 36 (0.43‰) from anorectal malformations, 149 (1.78‰) from kidney malformations, 139 (3.31‰) from hypospadias (male), 178 (2.12‰) from orofacial clefts (OFC), 188 (2.24‰) from polydactyly, 62 (0.74‰) from syndactyly, and 269 (3.21‰) from accessory auricle anomaly. Their trend of prevalence varied as follows: CHD, P=0.0026; hydrocephalus, P=0.0042; intestinal atresia/stenosis, P=0.0103; anorectal malformations, P=0.4332; kidney malformations, P<0.0001; hypospadias, P=0.0021; OFC, P=0.005; polydactyly, P=0.0867; syndactyly, P=0.1941; and accessory auricle anomaly, P=0.0011. The upward trend was as follows: CHD (P=0.0026), intestinal atresia/stenosis (P=0.0103), kidney malformations (P<0.0001), hypospadias (P=0.0021), OFC (P=0.005), and accessory auricle anomaly (P=0.0011). The incidence of hydrocephalus (P=0.0042) showed a downward trend. No statistical significant trend was found in anorectal malformations (P=0.4332), polydactyly (P=0.0867) and syndactyly (P=0.1941). The incidences of CHD, intestinal atresia/stenosis, kidney malformations, hypospadias, OFC, and accessory auricle anomaly have increased in the last 12 years, but the incidences of anorectal malformations, polydactyly and syndactyly remain stable. The incidence of hydrocephalus shows a downward trend.

Procedural trends, outcomes, and readmission rates pre-and post-FDA approval for MitraClip from the National Readmission Database (2013-14).

PubMed

Panaich, Sidakpal S; Arora, Shilpkumar; Badheka, Apurva; Kumar, Varun; Maor, Elad; Raphael, Claire; Deshmukh, Abhishek; Reeder, Guy; Eleid, Mackram; Rihal, Charanjit S

2018-05-01

There are sparse clinical data on the procedural trends, outcomes and readmission rates following FDA approval and expansion of Transcatheter mitral valve repair/MitraClip ® . Whether a complex new technology can be disseminated safely and quickly is controversial. The study cohort was derived from the National Readmission Data (NRD) 2013-14. MitraClip ® was identified using appropriate International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes. The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital mortality + procedural complications. Secondary outcome included 30-day readmissions. Hierarchical two level logistic models were used to evaluate study outcomes. Our analysis included 2003 MitraClip ® procedures. Overall in-hospital mortality was 3.9%. As expected, there was a significant increase in procedural volume post-FDA approval. Importantly, a corresponding downward trend in mortality and procedural complications was observed. Significant predictors of in-hospital mortality and procedural complications included the use of vasopressors (P <0.001) and hemodynamic support (P < 0.001). Higher hospital volume (≥10 MitraClips/year) was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and complications (P = 0.02). There were 304 (15.1%) 30-day readmissions, with heart failure being the most common cause of readmission. Elective procedures had lower in-hospital mortality (P < 0.001) and lower readmission rates (P = 0.011) compared with nonelective procedures. A significant increase in MitraClip ® procedural volumes occurred post-FDA approval. Overall morbidity and mortality were low and trended downwards. Hospital procedure volume ≥10 cases were associated with lower mortality and overall complication rates. These data suggest a successful roll out of a very complex novel structural heart procedure. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driscoll, Daniel G.; Southard, Rodney E.; Koenig, Todd A.; Bender, David A.; Holmes, Robert R.

2014-01-01

During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At different times from late February 2011 through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for 211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of 11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak streamflow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages (75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years). For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to 2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima by about one-third or more. AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent. AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

Nature of the seismic crust at the Aegir Ridge: A downward continuation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Abhishek; Breivik, Asbj|rn; Mjelde, Rolf; Hanan, Barry; Ito, Garrett; Sayit, Kaan; Howell, Sam; Vogt, Peter; Pedersen, Rolf-Birger

2013-04-01

The marine seismic data are influenced by variations in the thickness and velocity of the water column which causes fluctuations in the arrival times of seismic phases. Downward continuation of the ocean-bottom seismometer data are used to remove the contributions of the water column by bring the shot and receiver at a common datum such as the seafloor. Additionally, the downward continuation focus the seismic energy and hence improves the resolution. We apply the downward continuation technique to analyze the OBS data collected along the eastern shoulder of the Aegir Ridge. The Aegir Ridge is an extinct spreading ridge in the North-East Atlantic ocean. Its proximity to the active Iceland hot-spot makes it important for understanding the process of hotspot-ridge interaction during the Oligocene. We present results of an OBS experiment, supported by single channel streamer, gravity and magnetic observations. Usable seismic data from 20 OBSs distributed along ~550 km length of the profile reveal the variations in crustal thickness and seismic velocities. Regional magnetic anomalies show a faster spreading rate towards the north and a slower spreading towards the southern end near the Iceland hotspot during the active period of the ridge. However, the observed and the predicted crustal thickness show an opposite trend. We interpret this anti-correlation between the seafloor spreading rate and the crustal thickness as a result of the interaction between the Iceland hotspot and the Aegir Ridge.

Consumer Demand for Dairy Products. A Summary Analysis. Agriculture Information Bulletin Number 537.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haidacher, Richard C.; And Others

This study analyzes the 1980s upturn in per capita consumption of dairy products in the United States. The study found that per capita consumption of total dairy products in the United States first trended downward then stagnated for the two decades prior to the early 1980s. Per capita consumption of items such as whole milk declined, whereas…

Quantitative analysis of a transpressional system, El Biod Arch, Ghadames Basin, Algeria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, S.R.; Krantz, R.W.; Akkache, K.

1996-12-31

Trap definition within the northern extension of the Hassi Touareg - Rhourde El Baguel fault zone in the western Ghadames Basin of Algeria is difficult due to complex structural geometries. The fault zone consists of a narrow system of discontinuous. locally en echelon faults. Although north-trending to the south, the zone curves to a northeast trend to the north. Reserves associated with the southern portion of the system total 1500 MMBOR and 2 TCFG. Several lines of evidence support a strike-slip component of motion for the northern segment. Horizontal slickensides have been described in cores taken from wells within themore » fault trend. Fracture patterns measured from logs taken within the NE-SW fault trend show clusters expected for right-lateral Reidel shears. Although complicated by all evaporate sequence at mid-level in the stratigraphic section, we interpret downward converging faults imaged on recent 2D seismic as positive flower profiles. Map patterns are also interpreted as right-lateral, recognizing that the 2D grid cannot resolve all of the structural complexity. To confirm the component of strike-slip fault displacement, we applied a new quantitative method relating map view structural orientations to the shear magnitude, the degree of convergence or divergence, and the magnitudes of horizontal and vertical strains. Strike-slip to convergence ratios ranging from 2:1 to 3:1 were measured in the study area. Higher ratios (10:1) measured above the salt may indicate a detachment. These ratios also fit the regional tectonic pattern: to the south, where the fault zone trends due north, structural geometries support dip-slip inversion indicative of east-west shortening. Applying the same shortening vector to the northeast-trending part of the zone suggests oblique right-lateral motion, with a strike-slip to convergence ratio of 2:1.« less

Quantitative analysis of a transpressional system, El Biod Arch, Ghadames Basin, Algeria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, S.R.; Krantz, R.W.; Akkache, K.

1996-01-01

Trap definition within the northern extension of the Hassi Touareg - Rhourde El Baguel fault zone in the western Ghadames Basin of Algeria is difficult due to complex structural geometries. The fault zone consists of a narrow system of discontinuous. locally en echelon faults. Although north-trending to the south, the zone curves to a northeast trend to the north. Reserves associated with the southern portion of the system total 1500 MMBOR and 2 TCFG. Several lines of evidence support a strike-slip component of motion for the northern segment. Horizontal slickensides have been described in cores taken from wells within themore » fault trend. Fracture patterns measured from logs taken within the NE-SW fault trend show clusters expected for right-lateral Reidel shears. Although complicated by all evaporate sequence at mid-level in the stratigraphic section, we interpret downward converging faults imaged on recent 2D seismic as positive flower profiles. Map patterns are also interpreted as right-lateral, recognizing that the 2D grid cannot resolve all of the structural complexity. To confirm the component of strike-slip fault displacement, we applied a new quantitative method relating map view structural orientations to the shear magnitude, the degree of convergence or divergence, and the magnitudes of horizontal and vertical strains. Strike-slip to convergence ratios ranging from 2:1 to 3:1 were measured in the study area. Higher ratios (10:1) measured above the salt may indicate a detachment. These ratios also fit the regional tectonic pattern: to the south, where the fault zone trends due north, structural geometries support dip-slip inversion indicative of east-west shortening. Applying the same shortening vector to the northeast-trending part of the zone suggests oblique right-lateral motion, with a strike-slip to convergence ratio of 2:1.« less

Trends in gastric cancer mortality and in the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in Portugal.

PubMed

Morais, Samantha; Ferro, Ana; Bastos, Ana; Castro, Clara; Lunet, Nuno; Peleteiro, Bárbara

2016-07-01

Portugal has the highest gastric cancer mortality rates in Western Europe, along with high prevalences of Helicobacter pylori infection. Monitoring their trends is essential to predict the burden of this cancer. We aimed to quantify time trends in gastric cancer mortality in Portugal and in each administrative region, and to compute short-term predictions, as well as to describe the prevalence of H. pylori infection, through a systematic review. Joinpoint analyses were used to identify significant changes in sex-specific trends in gastric cancer age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and to estimate annual percent changes (APC). The most recent trends were considered to compute estimates up to 2020 by adjusting Poisson regression models. We searched PubMed and IndexRMP to identify studies carried out in Portugal reporting the prevalence of H. pylori. Gastric cancer mortality has been decreasing in Portugal since 1971 in men (from ASMR=55.3/100 000; APC=-2.4, 95% confidence interval: -2.5 to -2.3) and since 1970 in women (from ASMR=28.0/100 000; APC=-2.8, 95% confidence interval: -2.9 to -2.7), although large regional differences were observed. Predicted ASMR for 2015 and 2020 were 18.8/100 000 and 16.7/100 000 for men and 8.5/100 000 and 7.4/100 000 for women, respectively. The prevalence of H. pylori varied from almost 5% at 0.5-2 years to just over 90% at 70 years or more. No consistent variation was observed since the 1990s. The downward trends in mortality rates are expected to remain in the next decades. The high prevalence of H. pylori infection across age groups and studies from different periods shows a large potential for decrease in the burden of gastric cancer in Portugal.

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

2013-01-01

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

Trends in alcohol use during moderate and severe traumatic brain injury: 18 years of neurotrauma in Pennsylvania.

PubMed

Bernier, R A; Hillary, F G

2016-01-01

Alcohol is a known risk factor for TBI, yet little is known about how rates of alcohol use at time of injury differ across demographics and the stability of alcohol-related injury over time. Further, findings examining the relationship between alcohol and outcome are mixed. This study aimed to examine changes in alcohol-positive moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (+aTBI) over two decades with focus on demographic factors, changes in +aTBI frequency over time, mortality and acute outcome. This retrospective study examined data collected from 1992-2009 by the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcome Study (PTOS). Results reveal that the proportion of +aTBI has been generally stable across years. However, there is an interaction of +aTBI incidence with mechanism of injury and age, with a downward trend in +aTBI within MVA and fall and individuals 18-30 and 71+ years. Further, consistent with several findings in the literature, alcohol was associated with higher rates of survival and better FSD scores during acute recovery. This study discusses findings in the context of a greater literature on TBI-related alcohol and outcome. The injury-alcohol profiles highlighted could be used to inform future allocation of resources toward prevention of, intervention for and care of individuals who sustain TBI.

Evidence of indiscriminate fishing effects in one of the world's largest inland fisheries.

PubMed

Ngor, Peng Bun; McCann, Kevin S; Grenouillet, Gaël; So, Nam; McMeans, Bailey C; Fraser, Evan; Lek, Sovan

2018-06-12

While human impacts like fishing have altered marine food web composition and body size, the status of the world's important tropical inland fisheries remains largely unknown. Here, we look for signatures of human impacts on the indiscriminately fished Tonle Sap fish community that supports one of the world's largest freshwater fisheries. By analyzing a 15-year time-series (2000-2015) of fish catches for 116 species obtained from an industrial-scale 'Dai' fishery, we find: (i) 78% of the species exhibited decreasing catches through time; (ii) downward trends in catches occurred primarily in medium to large-bodied species that tend to occupy high trophic levels; (iii) a relatively stable or increasing trend in catches of small-sized species, and; (iv) a decrease in the individual fish weights and lengths for several common species. Because total biomass of the catch has remained remarkably resilient over the last 15 years, the increase in catch of smaller species has compensated for declines in larger species. Our finding of sustained production but altered community composition is consistent with predictions from recent indiscriminate theory, and gives a warning signal to fisheries managers and conservationists that the species-rich Tonle Sap is being affected by heavy indiscriminate fishing pressure.

Impact of vegetation removal and soil aridation on diurnal temperature range in a semiarid region: Application to the Sahel

PubMed Central

Zhou, Liming; Dickinson, Robert E.; Tian, Yuhong; Vose, Russell S.; Dai, Yongjiu

2007-01-01

Increased clouds and precipitation normally decrease the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and thus have commonly been offered as explanation for the trend of reduced DTR observed for many land areas over the last several decades. Observations show, however, that the DTR was reduced most in dry regions and especially in the West African Sahel during a period of unprecedented drought. Furthermore, the negative trend of DTR in the Sahel appears to have stopped and may have reversed after the rainfall began to recover. This study develops a hypothesis with climate model sensitivity studies showing that either a reduction in vegetation cover or a reduction in soil emissivity would reduce the DTR by increasing nighttime temperature through increased soil heating and reduced outgoing longwave radiation. Consistent with empirical analyses of observational data, our results suggest that vegetation removal and soil aridation would act to reduce the DTR during periods of drought and human mismanagement over semiarid regions such as the Sahel and to increase the DTR with more rainfall and better human management. Other mechanisms with similar effects on surface energy balance, such as increased nighttime downward longwave radiation due to increased greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds, would also be expected to have a larger impact on DTR over drier regions. PMID:17986620

Trend of Medical Tourism Publications: An Attempt to Explore the Involved Academic Disciplines and Interests.

PubMed

Rokni, Ladan; Park, Sam-Hun

2018-02-01

Medical tourism suffers from the lack of a consensus regarding the involved categories. This study aimed to address this gap from the academic disciplines and publications perspective. Totally 1954 citations were identified through a formula of keyword search of SCOPUS. In order to classify the various subject areas, we followed the international standard classification of education (ISCED) developed by UNESCO. Moreover, the trends of publications were identified based on their popularity between 2000 and 2017. The category with the most interests on publication about medical tourism was 'health and welfare', followed by 'social science'. Even though various disciplines were involved in the medical tourism, it seems that a downward trend has been experienced since 2015. The identified key trends of medical tourism publications will benefit researchers exploring the categories of medical tourism or health travel. The results contribute to advance the state of knowledge from the academic perspective.

[Drowning mortality trends in children younger than 5 years old in Mexico, 1979-2008].

PubMed

Báez-Báez, Guadalupe Laura; Orozco-Valerio, María de Jesús; Dávalos-Guzmán, Julio César; Méndez-Magaña, Ana Cecilia; Celis, Alfredo

2012-01-01

To describe mortality trends from drowning in children younger than 5 years old. Mortality records of children younger than 5 years old were obtained from the National Health Information (SINAIS) system of Mexico from 1979 to 2008. Cause of death by asphyxia was established according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD 9th and 10th). We analyzed age, sex, federal state, year and place where the event occurred. Fatal drowning diminished from 7.64 in 1979 to 3.59 deaths per 100,000 in 2008. This trend was observed throughout the assessment period and in all federal states. Children younger than 2 years showed the highest rate of death. Mortality was higher in males than females (1.7:1). A great proportion of events happen at home. Drowning mortality among children less than 5 years old in Mexico shows a downward trend in all states.

Changing incidence of psychotic disorders among the young in Zurich.

PubMed

Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Lauber, Christoph; Warnke, Inge; Haker, Helene; Murray, Robin M; Rössler, Wulf

2007-09-01

There is controversy over whether the incidence rates of schizophrenia and psychotic disorders have changed in recent decades. To detect deviations from trends in incidence, we analysed admission data of patients with an ICD-8/9/10 diagnosis of psychotic disorders in the Canton Zurich / Switzerland, for the period 1977-2005. The data was derived from the central psychiatric register of the Canton Zurich. Ex-post forecasting with ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models was used to assess departures from existing trends. In addition, age-period-cohort analysis was applied to determine hidden birth cohort effects. First admission rates of patients with psychotic disorders were constant in men and showed a downward trend in women. However, the rates in the youngest age groups showed a strong increase in the second half of the 1990's. The trend reversal among the youngest age groups coincides with the increased use of cannabis among young Swiss in the 1990's.

Secular trend, seasonality and effects of a community-based intervention on neonatal mortality: follow-up of a cluster-randomised trial in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.

PubMed

Eriksson, Leif; Nga, Nguyen T; Hoa, Dinh T Phuong; Duc, Duong M; Bergström, Anna; Wallin, Lars; Målqvist, Mats; Ewald, Uwe; Huy, Tran Q; Thuy, Nguyen T; Do, Tran Thanh; Lien, Pham T L; Persson, Lars-Åke; Selling, Katarina Ekholm

2018-05-15

Little is know about whether the effects of community engagement interventions for child survival in low-income and middle-income settings are sustained. Seasonal variation and secular trend may blur the data. Neonatal mortality was reduced in a cluster-randomised trial in Vietnam where laywomen facilitated groups composed of local stakeholders employing a problem-solving approach for 3 years. In this analysis, we aim at disentangling the secular trend, the seasonal variation and the effect of the intervention on neonatal mortality during and after the trial. In Quang Ninh province, 44 communes were allocated to intervention and 46 to control. Births and neonatal deaths were assessed in a baseline survey in 2005, monitored during the trial in 2008-2011 and followed up by a survey in 2014. Time series analyses were performed on monthly neonatal mortality data. There were 30 187 live births and 480 neonatal deaths. The intervention reduced the neonatal mortality from 19.1 to 11.6 per 1000 live births. The reduction was sustained 3 years after the trial. The control areas reached a similar level at the time of follow-up. Time series decomposition analysis revealed a downward trend in the intervention areas during the trial that was not found in the control areas. Neonatal mortality peaked in the hot and wet summers. A community engagement intervention resulted in a lower neonatal mortality rate that was sustained but not further reduced after the end of the trial. When decomposing time series of neonatal mortality, a clear downward trend was demonstrated in intervention but not in control areas. ISRCTN44599712, Post-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The interaction of financial news between mass media and new media: Evidence from news on Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongjie; Zhang, Zuochao; Liu, Lanbiao; Shen, Dehua

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate both the contemporaneous and the lead-lag relationships between the mass media news and the new media news of the financial news on the constitute stocks of the CSI 300. The empirical results show that: (1) there exists a strong correlation between these two types of news; (2) the granger causality direction from new media news to mass media news is increasingly obvious, while the reverse direction has a downward trend; (3) new media is playing a increasingly important role in the stock market and exhibits a trend to substitutes the mass media.

Some observations on the role of planetary waves in determining the spring time ozone distribution in the Antarctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.; Mcpeters, R. D.

1986-01-01

Ozone measurements from 1970 to 1984 from the Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet and the Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet spectrometers show significant decrease in total ozone only after 1979. The downward trend is most apparent in October south of 70 deg S in the longitude zone 0 to 30 deg W where planetary wave activity is weak. Outside this longitude region, the trend in total ozone is much smaller due to strong interannual variability of wave activity. This paper gives a phenomenological description of ozone depletion in the Antarctic region based on vertical advection and transient planetary waves.

HIV decline associated with changes in risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal: analysis of population-based HIV prevalence surveys between 2001 and 2012.

PubMed

Deuba, Keshab; Ekström, Anna Mia; Tomson, Göran; Shrestha, Rachana; Marrone, Gaetano

2017-08-01

We assessed changes in HIV prevalence and risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal. A total of 7505 participants (aged 16-24 years) from key populations who were at increased risk of HIV infection (2767 people who inject drugs (PWID); 852 men who have sex with men/transgender (MSM/TG); 2851 female sex workers (FSW) and 1035 male labour migrants) were recruited randomly over a 12-year period, 2001-2012. Local epidemic zones of Nepal (Kathmandu valley, Pokhara valley, Terai Highway and West to Far West hills) were analysed separately. We found a very strong and consistent decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade in different epidemic zones among PWID and MSM/TG in Kathmandu, the capital city, most likely due to a parallel increase in safe needle and syringe use and increased condom use. A decrease in HIV prevalence in 22 Terai highway districts, sharing an open border with India, was also consistent with increased condom use among FSW. Among male labour migrants, HIV prevalence was low throughout the period in the West to Far West hilly regions. Condom use by migrant workers involved with FSW abroad increased while their condom use with Nepalese FSW declined. Other risk determinants such as mean age at starting first injection, injection frequency, place of commercial sex solicitation, their mean age when leaving to work abroad did not change consistently across epidemic zones among the young key populations under study. In Nepal, the decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade was remarkably significant and consistent with an increase in condom use and safer use of clean needles and syringes. However, diverging trends in risk behaviours across local epidemic zones of Nepal suggest a varying degree of implementation of national HIV prevention policies. This calls for continued preventive efforts as well as surveillance to sustain the observed downward trend.

The recent warming trend in North Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orsi, Anais J.; Kawamura, Kenji; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Fettweis, Xavier; Box, Jason E.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Clow, Gary D.; Landais, Amaelle; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2017-01-01

The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multidecadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30 year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms responsible for this trend. Here we present a surface temperature reconstruction over 1982–2011 at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project, 51°W, 77°N), in North Greenland, based on the inversion of borehole temperature and inert gas isotope data. We find that NEEM has warmed by 2.7 ± 0.33°C over the past 30 years, from the long-term 1900–1970 average of −28.55 ± 0.29°C. The warming trend is principally caused by an increase in downward longwave heat flux. Atmospheric reanalyses underestimate this trend by 17%, underlining the need for more in situ observations to validate reanalyses.

Longitudinal Analysis of the Relationships Between Social Support and Health-Related Quality of Life in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients.

PubMed

Liang, Yongchun; Wang, Haifang; Niu, Meie; Zhu, Xiaming; Cai, Jianzheng; Wang, Xiubei

2018-06-22

The correlation between social support and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) has been well documented, but whether social support changes or whether social support consistently plays a significant role in the various phases of the treatment process remains unknown among hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients. The aims of this study were to assess the changing trends of HRQOL and social support and evaluate the relationship between HRQOL and social support before and after transplantation. Measures were completed by 122 HSCT patients before and after transplantation. The measures administered included the Perceived Social Support Scale and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Bone Marrow Transplant questionnaire. The social support score presented a marked downward trend (F = 17.090, P < .001). The overall HRQOL was the lowest, 103.61 (SD, 19.14) at 1 month and increased steadily over time to 108.10 (SD, 19.58) at 3 months and 110.02 (SD, 18.00) at 6 months after HSCT. The generalized estimating equation models showed that social support consistently had a positive impact on HRQOL in the 6-month period post-HSCT. We confirmed a significant positive association between social support and HRQOL in HSCT recipients. However, it is noteworthy that the social support score declined during the 6-month period even while the HRQOL scores were increasing. Social support is closely related to the HRQOL; thus, clinicians should give close attention to social support to improve the HRQOL of HSCT patients. Social support should not be overlooked during the first 6 months after transplantation.

Decadal oscillation of lakes and aquifers in the upper Great Lakes region of North America: hydroclimatic implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watras, C.J.; Read, J.S.; Holman, K.D.; Liu, Z.; Song, Y.-Y.; Watras, A.J.; Morgan, S.; Stanley, E.H.

2014-01-01

We report a unique hydrologic time-series which indicates that water levels in lakes and aquifers across the upper Great Lakes region of North America have been dominated by a climatically-driven, near-decadal oscillation for at least 70 years. The historical oscillation (~13y) is remarkably consistent among small seepage lakes, groundwater tables and the two largest Laurentian Great Lakes despite substantial differences in hydrology. Hydrologic analyses indicate that the oscillation has been governed primarily by changes in the net atmospheric flux of water (P-E) and stage-dependent outflow. The oscillation is hypothetically connected to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns originating in the mid-latitude North Pacific that support the flux of moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Recent data indicate an apparent change in the historical oscillation characterized by a ~12y downward trend beginning in 1998. Record low water levels region-wide may mark the onset of a new hydroclimatic regime.

Correlations between gravitropic curvature and auxin movement across gravistimulated roots of Zea mays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, L. M.; Evans, M. L.; Hertel, R.

1990-01-01

We compared the kinetics of auxin redistribution across the caps of primary roots of 2-day-old maize (Zea mays, cv Merit) seedlings with the time course of gravitropic curvature. [3H] indoleacetic acid was applied to one side of the cap in an agar donor and radioactivity moving across the cap was collected in an agar receiver applied to the opposite side. Upon gravistimulation the roots first curved upward slightly, then returned to the horizontal and began curving downward, reaching a final angle of about 67 degrees. Movement of label across the caps of gravistimulated roots was asymmetric with preferential downward movement (ratio downward/upward = ca. 1.6, radioactivity collected during the 90 min following beginning of gravistimulation). There was a close correlation between the development of asymmetric auxin movement across the root cap and the rate of curvature, with both values increasing to a maximum and then declining as the roots approached the final angle of curvature. In roots preadapted to gravity (alternate brief stimulation on opposite flanks over a period of 1 hour) the initial phase of upward curvature was eliminated and downward bending began earlier than for controls. The correlation between asymmetric auxin movement and the kinetics of curvature also held in comparisons between control and preadapted roots. Both downward auxin transport asymmetry and downward curvature occurred earlier in preadapted roots than in controls. These findings are consistent with suggestions that the root cap is not only the site of perception but also the location of the initial redistribution of effectors that ultimately leads to curvature.

Decline in the pulp and paper industry: Effects on backward-linked forest industries and local economies

Treesearch

Consuelo Brandeis; Zhimei Guo

2016-01-01

Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills consume close to 52 percent of southern roundwood, providing a  significant market to southern forest landowners. Declining numbers of pulpwood-using mills and downward trends in mill  capacity, however, present a growing challenge to the southern forest sector. Shrinking mill  capacity affects rural communities that depend on mill...

Early-release Estimates From the 2010 MECS Show That Energy Consumption In the Manufacturing Sector Decreased Between 2006 and 2010

EIA Publications

2012-01-01

Energy consumption in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell from 21,098 trillion Btu (tBtu) in 2006 to 19,062 tBtu in 2010, a decline of almost 10% , based on preliminary estimates released from the 2010 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS). This decline continues the downward trend in manufacturing energy use since the 1998 MECS report.

Factors influencing changes in U.S. hardwood log and lumber exports from 1990 to 2011. BioResources

Treesearch

William G. Luppold; Matthew S. Bumgardner

2013-01-01

Domestic consumption of hardwood products in the United States since 2000 has trended downward, making exports the single most important market for higher grade hardwood lumber and a major market for higher value hardwood logs. Between 1990 and 2011, hardwood lumber exports increased by 46%. During most of this period, Canada was the largest export market for U.S....

The Dramatic Increase in the Rate of Low Birthweight in New York City: An Aggregate Time-Series Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joyce, Theodore

1990-01-01

Analyzes the incidence of low birth weight in New York City using monthly time-series statistical data from 1968 through 1988. Finds that a downward trend before 1984 for both Blacks and Whites has reversed, with 3,110 additional low birth weight births to Blacks and 1,385 additional low birth weight births to Whites over the numbers expected.…

Acrylamide concentrations in potato crisps in Europe from 2002 to 2011

PubMed Central

Powers, Stephen J.; Mottram, Donald S.; Curtis, Andrew; Halford, Nigel G.

2013-01-01

A dataset of manufacturers' measurements of acrylamide levels in 40,455 samples of fresh sliced potato crisps from 20 European countries for years 2002 to 2011 was compiled. This dataset is by far the largest ever compiled relating to acrylamide levels in potato crisps. Analysis of variance was applied to the data and showed a clear, significant downward trend for mean levels of acrylamide, from 763 ± 91.1 ng g−1 (parts per billion) in 2002 to 358 ± 2.5 ng g−1 in 2011; this was a decrease of 53% ± 13.5%. The yearly 95th quantile values were also subject to a clear downward trend. The effect of seasonality arising from the influence of potato storage on acrylamide levels was evident, with acrylamide in the first 6 months of the year being significantly higher than in the second 6 months. The proportion of samples containing acrylamide at a level above the indicative value of 1000 ng g−1 for potato crisps introduced by the European Commission in 2011 fell from 23.8% in 2002 to 3.2% in 2011. Nevertheless, even in 2011, a small proportion of samples still contained high levels of acrylamide, with 0.2% exceeding 2000 ng g−1. PMID:23822178

Acrylamide concentrations in potato crisps in Europe from 2002 to 2011.

PubMed

Powers, Stephen J; Mottram, Donald S; Curtis, Andrew; Halford, Nigel G

2013-01-01

A dataset of manufacturers' measurements of acrylamide levels in 40,455 samples of fresh sliced potato crisps from 20 European countries for years 2002 to 2011 was compiled. This dataset is by far the largest ever compiled relating to acrylamide levels in potato crisps. Analysis of variance was applied to the data and showed a clear, significant downward trend for mean levels of acrylamide, from 763 ± 91.1 ng g⁻¹ (parts per billion) in 2002 to 358 ± 2.5 ng g⁻¹ in 2011; this was a decrease of 53% ± 13.5%. The yearly 95th quantile values were also subject to a clear downward trend. The effect of seasonality arising from the influence of potato storage on acrylamide levels was evident, with acrylamide in the first 6 months of the year being significantly higher than in the second 6 months. The proportion of samples containing acrylamide at a level above the indicative value of 1000 ng g⁻¹ for potato crisps introduced by the European Commission in 2011 fell from 23.8% in 2002 to 3.2% in 2011. Nevertheless, even in 2011, a small proportion of samples still contained high levels of acrylamide, with 0.2% exceeding 2000 ng g⁻¹.

Evidence for a Continuous Decline in Lower Stratospheric Ozone Offsetting Ozone Layer Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Staehelin, Johannes; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stuebi, Rene; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, John;

Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Staehelin, Johannes; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stübi, Rene; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, John; Bourassa, Adam; Davis, Sean M.; Degenstein, Doug; Frith, Stacey; Froidevaux, Lucien; Roth, Chris; Sofieva, Viktoria; Wang, Ray; Wild, Jeannette; Yu, Pengfei; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Rozanov, Eugene V.

2018-02-01

Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective ozone layer around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60° S and 60° N outside the polar regions (60-90°). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60° S and 60° N has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60° S and 60° N. We find that total column ozone between 60° S and 60° N appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

Long-Term Declining Trends in Historical Wind Measurements at the Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory, 1885-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azorin-Molina, C.; Iacono, M. J.

2014-12-01

The Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory, located on the 635-foot summit of Great Blue Hill ten miles south of Boston, Massachusetts, has been the site of continuous monitoring of the local weather and climate since its founding in 1885. The meticulous, extensive and high-quality climate record maintained at this location has included the measurement of wind among many other parameters since its earliest days, and this provides a unique opportunity to examine wind speed trends at this site over nearly 130 years. Although multiple wind sensors have been in use during this time and the height of the anemometers was raised in 1908, the wind records have been made as consistent as possible through careful analysis of these changes and the application of adjustments to ensure consistency. The 30-year mean wind speed at this location has decreased from 6.8 m s-1 in the middle 20th century to its present value of 6.0 m s-1 with an increase in the rate of the decline beginning around 1980. The wind speed time series shows a significant (p < 0.05) downward trend over the entire period from 1885-2013 (-0.085 m s-1 decade-1) that is stronger and also significant for the sub-periods from 1961-2013 (-0.266 m s-1 decade-1) and 1979-2008 (-0.342 m s-1 decade-1). This declining trend persists in all seasons and has significant implications for the efficiency of wind power generation in the area, if it reflects a regional change in the near-surface wind regime. The wind instruments in use since the 19th century will be described, and the official long-term record will be compared with measurements from other wind sensors at the Observatory and surrounding locations. In addition, initial investigations of the possible causes of the wind speed decline will be presented in the context of global stilling (i.e. the theory of a widespread decline in measured near-surface wind speed), including an analysis of the wind speed change as a function of wind direction.

Photoreactor with self-contained photocatalyst recapture

DOEpatents

Gering, Kevin L.

2004-12-07

A system for the continuous use and recapture of a catalyst in liquid, comprising: a generally vertical reactor having a reaction zone with generally downwardly flowing liquid, and a catalyst recovery chamber adjacent the reaction zone containing a catalyst consisting of buoyant particles. The liquid in the reaction zone flows downward at a rate which exceeds the speed of upward buoyant migration of catalyst particles in the liquid, whereby catalyst particles introduced into the liquid in the reaction zone are drawn downward with the liquid. A slow flow velocity flotation chamber disposed below the reaction zone is configured to recapture the catalyst particles and allow them to float back into the catalyst recovery chamber for recycling into the reaction zone, rather than being swept downstream. A novel 3-dimensionally adjustable solar reflector directs light into the reaction zone to induce desired photocatalytic reactions within the liquid in the reaction zone.

Trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow characteristics at 227 streamgages in the Missouri River watershed, water years 1960-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton, Parker A.; Anderson, Mark T.; Stamm, John F.

2014-01-01

The Missouri River and its tributaries are an important resource that serve multiple uses including agriculture, energy, recreation, and municipal water supply. Understanding historical streamflow characteristics provides relevant guidance to adaptive management of these water resources. Streamflow records in the Missouri River watershed were examined for trends in time series of annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A total of 227 streamgages having continuous observational records for water years 1960–2011 were examined. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine statistical significance of trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A trend was considered statistically significant for a probability value less than or equal to 0.10 that the Kendall’s tau value equals zero. Significant trends in annual streamflow were indicated for 101 out of a total of 227 streamgages. The Missouri River watershed was divided into six watershed regions and trends within regions were examined. The western and the southern parts of the Missouri River watershed had downward trends in annual streamflow (56 streamgages), whereas the eastern part of the watershed had upward trends in streamflow (45 streamgages). Seasonal and monthly streamflow trends reflected prevailing annual streamflow trends within each watershed region.

Ground-water levels and flow near the industrial excess landfill, Uniontown, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bair, E.S.; Norris, S.E.

1989-01-01

Under an interagency contractual agreement with the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registration, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated geologic and hydrogeologic data available for the Industrial Excess Landfill (IEL) site in Uniontown, Ohio. During previous studies, ground-water contaminations was detected in observation wells installed at the site and in residential wells near the site. Water levels recorded on drillers' logs from 279 wells were used to characterize the regional ground-water flow system in the area of the IEL site. On the basis of the gross lithologic differences between the unconsolidated glacial-drift material and the indurated bedrock, and the inferred differences in their hydraulic properties, the flow system in the area of the IEL site was divided into two regional aquifers: a shallow, unconfined glacial-drift aquifer and a deeper, semiconfined bedrock aquifer. About 33 percent of the drillers' logs were from wells completed in the glacial-drift aquifer, whereas 67 percent were from wells completed in the bedrock aquifer. A composite potentiometric-surface map of the glacial drift aquifer shows that the IEL site appears to straddle a prominent ground-water ridge that trends northeast-southwest. Ground water flows radially away from this ridge, primarily to the northwest and to the southeast; as a result flow in the glacial-drift aquifer as the IEL site moves in a radial pattern away from the site in all directions. A composite, regional potentiometric-surface map of the bedrock aquifer shows a similar shows a similar elongated ground-water ridge trending northeast-southwest across the north-western corner of the IEL site; however, it does not appear that the IEL site straddles the ground-water ridge in the bedrock potentiometric surface. As a consequence of the radial-type of flow pattern in the glacial-drift aquifer at the IEL site, the direction of potential off-site movement of a contaminant at the IEL site, This radial type of flow pattern may explain the nonuniform distribution of some of the contaminants detected in observation wells and residential wells, particularly if specific contaminants were not disposed of uniformly across the site. Available data also indicate a downward flow component within the glacial-drift aquifer, as manifested by a reduction of hydraulic heads with increasing depth of wells near the site. Such downward flow is consistent with the presence of the ground-water ridge, which would serve as a local recharge area within the regional flow system. Consequently, contaminants present at the site will flow both laterally within the local flow patterns and vertically downward within the flow system.

The nanomechanical signature of liver cancer tissues and its molecular origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Mengxin; Li, Yiran; Liu, Weiren; Jin, Lei; Jiang, Xifei; Wang, Xinyan; Ding, Zhenbin; Peng, Yuanfei; Zhou, Jian; Fan, Jia; Cao, Yi; Wang, Wei; Shi, Yinghong

2015-07-01

Patients with cirrhosis are at higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the second most frequent cause of cancer-related deaths. Although HCC diagnosis based on conventional morphological characteristics serves as the ``gold standard'' in the clinic, there is a high demand for more convenient and effective diagnostic methods that employ new biophysical perspectives. Here, we show that the nanomechanical signature of liver tissue is directly correlated with the development of HCC. Using indentation-type atomic force microscopy (IT-AFM), we demonstrate that the lowest elasticity peak (LEP) in the Young's modulus distribution of surgically removed liver cancer tissues can serve as a mechanical fingerprint to evaluate the malignancy of liver cancer. Cirrhotic tissues shared the same LEP as normal tissues. However, a noticeable downward shift in the LEP was detected when the cirrhotic tissues progressed to a malignant state, making the tumor tissues more prone to microvascular invasion. Cell-level mechanistic studies revealed that the expression level of a Rho-family effector (mDia1) was consistent with the mechanical trend exhibited by the tissue. Our findings indicate that the mechanical profiles of liver cancer tissues directly varied with tumor progression, providing an additional platform for the future diagnosis of HCC.Patients with cirrhosis are at higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the second most frequent cause of cancer-related deaths. Although HCC diagnosis based on conventional morphological characteristics serves as the ``gold standard'' in the clinic, there is a high demand for more convenient and effective diagnostic methods that employ new biophysical perspectives. Here, we show that the nanomechanical signature of liver tissue is directly correlated with the development of HCC. Using indentation-type atomic force microscopy (IT-AFM), we demonstrate that the lowest elasticity peak (LEP) in the Young's modulus distribution of surgically removed liver cancer tissues can serve as a mechanical fingerprint to evaluate the malignancy of liver cancer. Cirrhotic tissues shared the same LEP as normal tissues. However, a noticeable downward shift in the LEP was detected when the cirrhotic tissues progressed to a malignant state, making the tumor tissues more prone to microvascular invasion. Cell-level mechanistic studies revealed that the expression level of a Rho-family effector (mDia1) was consistent with the mechanical trend exhibited by the tissue. Our findings indicate that the mechanical profiles of liver cancer tissues directly varied with tumor progression, providing an additional platform for the future diagnosis of HCC. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Detailed experimental procedures and supplementary figures. See DOI: 10.1039/c5nr02192h

Prediction of Three-Dimensional Downward Flame Spread Characteristics over Poly(methyl methacrylate) Slabs in Different Pressure Environments.

PubMed

Zhao, Kun; Zhou, Xiao-Dong; Liu, Xue-Qiang; Lu, Lei; Wu, Zhi-Bo; Peng, Fei; Ju, Xiao-Yu; Yang, Li-Zhong

2016-11-22

The present study is aimed at predicting downward flame spread characteristics over poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) with different sample dimensions in different pressure environments. Three-dimensional (3-D) downward flame spread experiments on free PMMA slabs were conducted at five locations with different altitudes, which provide different pressures. Pressure effects on the flame spread rate, profile of pyrolysis front and flame height were analyzed at all altitudes. The flame spread rate in the steady-state stage was calculated based on the balance on the fuel surface and fuel properties. Results show that flame spread rate increases exponentially with pressure, and the exponent of pressure further shows an increasing trend with the thickness of the sample. The angle of the pyrolysis front emerged on sample residue in the width direction, which indicates a steady-burning stage, varies clearly with sample thicknesses and ambient pressures. A global non-dimensional equation was proposed to predict the variation tendency of the angle of the pyrolysis front with pressure and was found to fit well with the measured results. In addition, the dependence of average flame height on mass burning rate, sample dimension and pressure was proposed based on laminar diffusion flame theory. The fitted exponent of experimental data is 1.11, which is close to the theoretical value.

A binaural beat constructed from a noise

PubMed Central

Akeroyd, Michael A

2012-01-01

The binaural beat has been used for over one hundred years as a stimulus for generating the percept of motion. Classically the beat consists of a pure tone at one ear (e.g. 500 Hz) and the same pure tone at the other ear but shifted upwards or downwards in frequency (e.g., 501 Hz). An experiment and binaural computational analysis are reported which demonstrate that a more powerful motion percept can be obtained by applying the concept of the frequency shift to a noise, via an upwards or downwards shift in the frequency of the Fourier components of its spectrum. PMID:21218863

Salinity Trends in the Upper Colorado River Basin Upstream From the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit, Colorado, 1986-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leib, Kenneth J.; Bauch, Nancy J.

2008-01-01

In 1974, the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act was passed into law. This law was enacted to address concerns regarding the salinity content of the Colorado River. The law authorized various construction projects in selected areas or 'units' of the Colorado River Basin intended to reduce the salinity load in the Colorado River. One such area was the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit in western Colorado. The U. S. Geological Survey has done extensive studies and research in the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit that provide information to aid the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Natural Resources Conservation Service in determining where salinity-control work may provide the best results, and to what extent salinity-control work was effective in reducing salinity concentrations and loads in the Colorado River. Previous studies have indicated that salinity concentrations and loads have been decreasing downstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit, and that the decreases are likely the result of salinity control work in these areas. Several of these reports; however, also document decreasing salinity loads upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. This finding was important because only a small amount of salinity-control work was being done in areas upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit at the time the findings were reported (late 1990?s). As a result of those previous findings, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation entered into a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey to investigate salinity trends in selected areas bracketing the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit and regions upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. The results of the study indicate that salinity loads were decreasing upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit from 1986 through 2003, but the rates of decrease have slowed during the last 10 years. The average rate of decrease in salinity load upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit was 10,700 tons/year. This accounts for approximately 27 percent of the decrease observed downstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. Salinity loads were decreasing at the fastest rate (6,950 tons/year) in Region 4, which drains an area between the Colorado River at Cameo, Colorado (station CAMEO) and Colorado River above Glenwood Springs, Colorado (station GLEN) streamflow-gaging stations. Trends in salinity concentration and streamflow were tested at station CAMEO to determine if salinity concentration, streamflow, or both are controlling salinity loads upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. Trend tests of individual ion concentrations were included as potential indicators of what sources (based on mineral composition) may be controlling trends in the upper Colorado. No significant trend was detected for streamflow from 1986 to 2003 at station CAMEO; however, a significant downward trend was detected for salinity concentration. The trend slope indicates that salinity concentration is decreasing at a median rate of about 3.54 milligrams per liter per year. Five major ions (calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chloride) were tested for trends. The results indicate that processes within source areas with rock and soil types (or other unidentified sources) bearing calcium, sodium, and sulfate had the largest effect on the downward trend in salinity load upstream from station CAMEO. Downward trends in salinity load resulting from ground-water sources and/or land-use change were thought to be possible reasons for the observed decreases in salinity loads; however, the cause or causes of the decreasing salinity loads are not fully understood. A reduction in the amount of ground-water percolation from Region 4 (resulting from work done through Federal irrigation system improvement programs as well as privately funded irrigation system improvements) has helped reduce annual salinity load from Region 4 by approxima

Ghrelin and leptin modulate the feeding behaviour of the hawksbill turtle Eretmochelys imbricata during nesting season

PubMed Central

Goldberg, Daphne Wrobel; Leitão, Santiago Alonso Tobar; Godfrey, Matthew H.; Lopez, Gustave Gilles; Santos, Armando José Barsante; Neves, Fabiana Alves; de Souza, Érica Patrícia Garcia; Moura, Anibal Sanchez; Bastos, Jayme da Cunha; Bastos, Vera Lúcia Freire da Cunha

2013-01-01

Female sea turtles have rarely been observed foraging during the nesting season. This suggests that prior to their migration to nesting beaches the females must store sufficient energy and nutrients at their foraging grounds and must be physiologically capable of undergoing months without feeding. Leptin (an appetite-suppressing protein) and ghrelin (a hunger-stimulating peptide) affect body weight by influencing energy intake in all vertebrates. We investigated the levels of these hormones and other physiological and nutritional parameters in nesting hawksbill sea turtles in Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil, by collecting consecutive blood samples from 41 turtles during the 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 reproductive seasons. We found that levels of serum leptin decreased over the nesting season, which potentially relaxed suppression of food intake and stimulated females to begin foraging either during or after the post-nesting migration. Concurrently, we recorded an increasing trend in ghrelin, which may have stimulated food intake towards the end of the nesting season. Both findings are consistent with the prediction that post-nesting females will begin to forage, either during or immediately after their post-nesting migration. We observed no seasonal trend for other physiological parameters (values of packed cell volume and serum levels of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, γ-glutamyl transferase, low-density lipoprotein, and high-density lipoprotein). The observed downward trends in general serum biochemistry levels were probably due to the physiological challenge of vitellogenesis and nesting in addition to limited energy resources and probable fasting. PMID:27293600

Ghrelin and leptin modulate the feeding behaviour of the hawksbill turtle Eretmochelys imbricata during nesting season.

PubMed

Goldberg, Daphne Wrobel; Leitão, Santiago Alonso Tobar; Godfrey, Matthew H; Lopez, Gustave Gilles; Santos, Armando José Barsante; Neves, Fabiana Alves; de Souza, Érica Patrícia Garcia; Moura, Anibal Sanchez; Bastos, Jayme da Cunha; Bastos, Vera Lúcia Freire da Cunha

2013-01-01

Female sea turtles have rarely been observed foraging during the nesting season. This suggests that prior to their migration to nesting beaches the females must store sufficient energy and nutrients at their foraging grounds and must be physiologically capable of undergoing months without feeding. Leptin (an appetite-suppressing protein) and ghrelin (a hunger-stimulating peptide) affect body weight by influencing energy intake in all vertebrates. We investigated the levels of these hormones and other physiological and nutritional parameters in nesting hawksbill sea turtles in Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil, by collecting consecutive blood samples from 41 turtles during the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 reproductive seasons. We found that levels of serum leptin decreased over the nesting season, which potentially relaxed suppression of food intake and stimulated females to begin foraging either during or after the post-nesting migration. Concurrently, we recorded an increasing trend in ghrelin, which may have stimulated food intake towards the end of the nesting season. Both findings are consistent with the prediction that post-nesting females will begin to forage, either during or immediately after their post-nesting migration. We observed no seasonal trend for other physiological parameters (values of packed cell volume and serum levels of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, γ-glutamyl transferase, low-density lipoprotein, and high-density lipoprotein). The observed downward trends in general serum biochemistry levels were probably due to the physiological challenge of vitellogenesis and nesting in addition to limited energy resources and probable fasting.

Switching Phenomena in a System with No Switches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

2010-02-01

It is widely believed that switching phenomena require switches, but this is actually not true. For an intriguing variety of switching phenomena in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. For example, financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("financial collapse"). Such switching occurs on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for a few seconds. We analyze a database containing 13,991,275 German DAX Future transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10 msec. For comparison, a database providing 2,592,531 of all S&P500 daily closing prices is used. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching phenomena have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have properties similar to those of phase transitions. We suggest that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales—such as the most recent financial crisis—are no outliers but single dramatic representatives caused by the switching between upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from very large (≈102 days) down to very small (≈10 ms).

Association of school performance indicators with implementation of the healthy kids, smart kids programme: case study.

PubMed

Nansel, Tonja R; Huang, Terry T K; Rovner, Alisha J; Sanders-Butler, Yvonne

2010-01-01

The purpose of the present analysis was to examine secular trends in school performance indicators in relationship to the implementation of a programme targeting the school food and physical activity environment. Data on available school performance indicators were obtained; retrospective analyses were conducted to assess trends in indicators in association with programme implementation; each outcome was regressed v. year, beginning with the year prior to programme implementation. The Healthy Kids, Smart Kids programme, a grass-roots effort to enhance the school food and physical activity environment in the Browns Mill Elementary School in Georgia. Data included publicly available school records from the years 1995 to 2006. The number of nurse, counselling and disciplinary referrals per 100 students demonstrated a downward trend, while standardized test scores demonstrated an upward trend beginning in the year of programme implementation. School year was a significant predictor of all indicators. Promoting nutrition and physical activity within the school environment may be a promising approach for enhancing both student health and educational outcomes.

Trend of Medical Tourism Publications: An Attempt to Explore the Involved Academic Disciplines and Interests

PubMed Central

ROKNI, Ladan; PARK, Sam-Hun

2018-01-01

Background: Medical tourism suffers from the lack of a consensus regarding the involved categories. This study aimed to address this gap from the academic disciplines and publications perspective. Methods: Totally 1954 citations were identified through a formula of keyword search of SCOPUS. In order to classify the various subject areas, we followed the international standard classification of education (ISCED) developed by UNESCO. Moreover, the trends of publications were identified based on their popularity between 2000 and 2017. Results: The category with the most interests on publication about medical tourism was ‘health and welfare’, followed by ‘social science’. Even though various disciplines were involved in the medical tourism, it seems that a downward trend has been experienced since 2015. Conclusion: The identified key trends of medical tourism publications will benefit researchers exploring the categories of medical tourism or health travel. The results contribute to advance the state of knowledge from the academic perspective. PMID:29445632

Trends in exposure to respirable crystalline silica (1986-2014) in Australian mining.

PubMed

Peters, Susan; Vermeulen, Roel; Fritschi, Lin; Musk, Aw Bill; Reid, Alison; de Klerk, Nicholas

2017-08-01

Respirable crystalline silica (RCS) has been associated with severe health risks. Exposures in Western Australia (WA) have been typically high in hard-rock mining and have reduced substantially since the mid-1900s. We described trends in RCS exposure in WA miners over the past 30 years. A total of 79 445 reported personal RCS exposure measurements, covering the years 1986-2014, were examined. Mixed-effects models were applied to estimate RCS exposure levels, including spline terms to estimate a time trend. An overall downward trend of about -8% per year was observed for RCS exposures in WA mining. Highest RCS exposure levels were modeled for base metal mining and exploration settings. Drilling occupations were among the highest exposed jobs. RCS exposure levels have fallen considerably in the last three decades. However, there are still mining occupations that may need further attention to avoid adverse health effects in these workers. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Hydrogeologic framework of the North Fork and surrounding areas, Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schubert, Christopher E.; Bova, Richard G.; Misut, Paul E.

2004-01-01

Ground water on the North Fork of Long Island is the sole source of drinking water, but the supply is vulnerable to saltwater intrusion and upconing in response to heavy pumping. Information on the area's hydrogeologic framework is needed to analyze the effects of pumping and drought on ground-water levels and the position of the freshwater-saltwater interface. This will enable water-resource managers and water-supply purveyors to evaluate a wide range of water-supply scenarios to safely meet water-use demands. The extent and thickness of hydrogeologic units and position of the freshwater-saltwater interface were interpreted from previous work and from exploratory drilling during this study.The fresh ground-water reservoir on the North Fork consists of four principal freshwater flow systems (referred to as Long Island mainland, Cutchogue, Greenport, and Orient) within a sequence of unconsolidated Pleistocene and Late Cretaceous deposits. A thick glacial-lake-clay unit appears to truncate underlying deposits in three buried valleys beneath the northern shore of the North Fork. Similar glacial-lake deposits beneath eastern and east-central Long Island Sound previously were inferred to be younger than the surficial glacial deposits exposed along the northern shore of Long Island. Close similarities in thickness and upper-surface altitude between the glacial-lake-clay unit on the North Fork and the glacial-lake deposits in Long Island Sound indicate, however, that the two are correlated at least along the North Fork shore.The Matawan Group and Magothy Formation, undifferentiated, is the uppermost Cretaceous unit on the North Fork and constitutes the Magothy aquifer. The upper surface of this unit contains a series of prominent erosional features that can be traced beneath Long Island Sound and the North Fork. Northwest-trending buried ridges extend several miles offshore from areas southeast of Rocky Point and Horton Point. A promontory in the irregular, north-facing cuesta slope extends offshore from an area southwest of Mattituck Creek and James Creek. Buried valleys that trend generally southeastward beneath Long Island Sound extend onshore northeast of Hashamomuck Pond and east of Goldsmith Inlet.An undifferentiated Pleistocene confining layer, the lower confining unit, consists of apparently contiguous units of glacial-lake, marine, and nonmarine clay. This unit is more than 200 feet thick in buried valleys filled with glacial-lake clay along the northern shore, but elsewhere on the North Fork, it is generally less than 50 feet thick and presumably represents an erosional remnant of marine clay. Its upper surface is generally 75 feet or more below sea level where it overlies buried valleys, and is generally 100 feet or less below sea level in areas where marine clay has been identified.A younger unit of glacial-lake deposits, the upper confining unit, is a local confining layer and underlies a sequence of late Pleistocene moraine and outwash deposits. This unit is thickest (more than 45 feet thick) beneath two lowland areas--near Mattituck Creek and James Creek, and near Hashamomuck Pond--but pinches out close to the northern and southern shores and is locally absent in inland areas of the North Fork. Its upper-surface altitude generally rises to near sea level toward the southern shore.Freshwater in the Orient flow system is limited to the upper glacial aquifer above the top of the lower confining unit. The upper confining unit substantially impedes the downward flow of freshwater in inland parts of the Greenport flow system. Deep freshwater within the lower confining unit in the east-central part of the Cutchogue flow system probably is residual from an interval of lower sea level. The upper confining unit is absent or only a few feet thick in the west-central part of the Cutchogue flow system and does not substantially impede the downward flow of freshwater, but the lower confining unit probably impedes the downward flow of freshwater within a southeast-trending buried valley in this area.

Carbon and Oxygen in Nearby Stars: Keys to Protoplanetary Disk Chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petigura, Erik A.; Marcy, Geoffrey W.

2011-07-01

We present carbon and oxygen abundances for 941 FGK stars—the largest such catalog to date. We find that planet-bearing systems are enriched in these elements. We self-consistently measure NC /NO , which is thought to play a key role in planet formation. We identify 46 stars with NC /NO >= 1.00 as potential hosts of carbon-dominated exoplanets. We measure a downward trend in [O/Fe] versus [Fe/H] and find distinct trends in the thin and thick disks, supporting the work of Bensby et al. Finally, we measure sub-solar NC /NO = 0.40+0.11 - 0.07, for WASP-12, a surprising result as this star is host to a transiting hot Jupiter whose dayside atmosphere was recently reported to have NC /NO >= 1 by Madhusudhan et al. Our measurements are based on 15,000 high signal-to-noise spectra taken with the Keck 1 telescope as part of the California Planet Search. We derive abundances from the [O I] and C I absorption lines at λ = 6300 and 6587 Å using the SME spectral synthesizer. Based in part on observations obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation.

[Completeness of notifications of violence perpetrated against adolescents in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil].

PubMed

Santos, Taciana Mirella Batista Dos; Cardoso, Mirian Domingos; Pitangui, Ana Carolina Rodarti; Santos, Yasmim Gabriella Cardoso; Paiva, Saul Martins; Melo, João Paulo Ramos; Silva, Lygia Maria Pereira

2016-12-01

The scope of this study was to analyze the trend of completeness of the data on violence perpetrated against adolescents registered in the State of Pernambuco between 2009 and 2012. This involved a cross-sectional survey of 5,259 adolescents, who were the victims of violence reported in SINAN-VIVA of the Pernambuco State Health Department. Simple linear regression was used to investigate the trend of completeness of the variables. The percentages of completeness were considered to be dependent variables (Y) and the number of years as independent variables (X). The results show a significant increase of 204% in the number of notifications. However, of the 34 variables analyzed, 27 (79.4%) showed a stationary trend, 6 (17.6%) a downward trend, and only one variable (2.9%) an upward trend. Completeness was considered 'Very Poor' for the variables: Education (47.3%), Full Address (21.3%), Occurrence Time (38%) and Use of Alcohol by the Attacker (47%). Therefore, despite the large increase in the number of notifications, data quality continued to be compromised, hampering a more realistic analysis of this group.

Optimum concentration gradient of the electrocatalyst, Nafion® and poly(tetrafluoroethylene) in a membrane-electrode-assembly for enhanced performance of direct methanol fuel cells.

PubMed

Liu, Jing Hua; Jeon, Min Ku; Lee, Ki Rak; Woo, Seong Ihl

2010-12-14

A combinatorial library of membrane-electrode-assemblies (MEAs) which consisted of 27 different compositions was fabricated to optimize the multilayer structure of direct methanol fuel cells. Each spot consisted of three layers of ink and a gradient was generated by employing different concentrations of the three components (Pt catalyst, Nafion® and polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)) of each layer. For quick evaluation of the library, a high-throughput optical screening technique was employed for methanol electro-oxidation reaction (MOR) activity. The screening results revealed that gradient layers could lead to higher MOR activity than uniform layers. It was found that the MOR activity was higher when the concentrations of Pt catalyst and Nafion ionomer decreased downward from the top layer to the bottom layer. On the other hand, higher MOR activity was observed when PTFE concentration increased downward from the top to the bottom layer.

Amphibian populations in the terrestrial environment: Is there evidence of declines of terrestrial forest amphibians in northwestern California?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welsh, H.H.; Fellers, G.M.; Lind, A.J.

2007-01-01

Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide; however the vast majority are species associated with aquatic habitats. Information on the status and trends of terrestrial amphibians is almost entirely lacking. Here we use data collected across a 12-yr period (sampling from 1984-86 and from 1993-95) to address the question of whether evidence exists for declines among terrestrial amphibians in northwestern California forests. The majority of amphibians, both species and relative numbers, in these forests are direct-developing salamanders of the family Plethodontidae. We examined amphibian richness and evenness, and the relative abundances of the four most common species of plethodontid salamanders. We examined evidence of differences between years in two ecological provinces (coastal and interior) and across young, mature, and late seral forests and with reference to a moisture gradient from xeric to hydric within late seral forests. We found evidence of declines in species richness across years on late seral mesic stands and in the coastal ecological province, but these differences appeared to be caused by differences in the detection of rarer species, rather than evidence of an overall pattern. We also found differences among specific years in numbers of individuals of the most abundant species, Ensatina eschscholtzii, but these differences also failed to reflect a consistent pattern of declines between the two decadal sample periods. Results showing differences in richness, evenness, and relative abundances along both the seral and moisture continua were consistent with previous research. Overall, we found no compelling evidence of a downward trend in terrestrial plethodontid salamanders. We believe that continued monitoring of terrestrial salamander populations is important to understanding mechanisms of population declines in amphibian species. Copyright 2007 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

Taking the pressure off the spring: the case of rebounding smoking rates when antitobacco campaigns ceased.

PubMed

Dono, Joanne; Bowden, Jacqueline; Kim, Susan; Miller, Caroline

2018-04-07

Smoking rates have been compared with a spring, requiring continuous downward pressure against protobacco forces, rather than a screw, which once driven down stays down. Quality antitobacco mass media campaigns put downward pressure on smoking rates. The suspension of a major Australian state campaign provided a natural experiment to assess effects on smoking. Furthermore, we document the positive influence of robust monitoring and mature advocacy on the political decision to reinstate funding. We also document the misuse by industry of South Australian smoking data from the period between Australia's implementation and subsequent evaluation of plain packaging. A time series analysis was used to examine monthly smoking prevalence trends at each of four intervention points: (A) commencement of high-intensity mass media campaign (August 2010); (B) introduction of plain packaging (December 2012), (C) defunding of campaign (July 2013); and (D) reinstatement of moderate-intensity campaign (July 2014). The suspension of the antitobacco campaign was disruptive to achieving smoking prevalence targets. There was an absence of a downward monthly smoking prevalence trajectory during the non-campaign period. Moreover, there was a significant decline in smoking prevalence during the period of high-intensity advertising, which continued after the introduction of plain packaging laws, and at the recommencement of campaign activity. While the observed declines in smoking prevalence are likely due to a combination of interventions and cannot be attributed exclusively to antitobacco advertising, the results reinforce the political decision to reinstate the campaign and demonstrate the need for maintained investment to keep downward pressure on smoking rates. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Date of Snowmelt at High Latitudes as Determined from Visible Satellite Data and Relationship with the Arctic Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, James; Robinson, Dave; Estilow, Tom; Hall, Dorothy

2012-01-01

Spring snow cover across Arctic lands has, on average, retreated approximately five days earlier since the late 1980s compared to the previous twenty years. However, it appears that since about 1990, the date the snowline first retreats north during the spring has remained nearly unchanged--in the last twenty years, the date of snow disappearance has not been occurring noticeably earlier. Snowmelt changes observed in the 1980s was step-like in nature, unlike a more continuous downward trend seen in Arctic sea ice extent. At latitude 70 deg N, several latitudinal segments (of 10 degrees) show significant (negative) trends. However, only two latitudinal segments at 60 deg N show significant trends, one positive and one negative. These variations appear to be related to variations in the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Additional observations and modeling investigations are needed to better explain past and present spring melt characteristics and peculiarities.

On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

Toxic materials, fishing, and environmental variation: simulated effects on striped bass population trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodyear, C.P.

1985-01-01

Decreased survival of larval striped bass Morone saxatilis resulting from toxic chemicals in the environment and decreased survival of adults caused by fishing both are suspected as agents contributing to the decline in the Chesapeake Bay stock since the mid-1970s. The relative power of each type of mortality to cause population declines was evaluated with simulation techniques. Equivalent levels of added mortality induced qualitatively identical and quantitatively similar trends in population simulations for all conditions examined except if strong density-dependent mortality preceded the contaminant toxicity. In this case the contaminant effect caused a greater reduction in yield, but the populationmore » did not tend toward extinction. The results indicate that the observed downward trend in the Chesapeake Bay population can be halted or reversed by a reduction in fishing mortality, even if contaminant toxicity is the proximate cause for the decline. 28 references, 1 figure, 1 table.« less

Nutrient pressures and ecological responses to nutrient loading reductions in Danish streams, lakes and coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kronvang, Brian; Jeppesen, Erik; Conley, Daniel J.; Søndergaard, Martin; Larsen, Søren E.; Ovesen, Niels B.; Carstensen, Jacob

2005-03-01

The Danish National Aquatic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (NOVA) was launched in 1988 following the adoption of the first Danish Action Plan on the Aquatic Environment in 1987 with the aim to reduce by 50% the nitrogen (N) loading and by 80% the phosphorus (P) loading to the aquatic environment. The 14 years of experience gathered from NOVA have shown that discharges of total N (TN) and P (TP) from point sources to the Danish Aquatic Environment have been reduced by 69% (N) and 82% (P) during the period 1989 2002. Consequently, the P concentration has decreased markedly in most Danish lakes and estuaries. Considerable changes in agricultural practice have resulted in a reduction of the net N-surplus from 136 to 88 kg N ha-1 yr-1 (41%) and the net P-surplus from 19 to 11 kg P ha-1 yr-1 (42%) during the period 1985 2002. Despite these efforts Danish agriculture is today the major source of both N (>80%) and P (>50%) in Danish streams, lakes and coastal waters. A non-parametric statistical trend analysis of TN concentrations in streams draining dominantly agricultural catchments has shown a significant (p<0.05) downward trend in 48 streams with the downward trend being stronger in loamy compared to sandy catchments, and more pronounced with increasing dominance of agricultural exploitation in the catchments. In contrast, a statistical trend analysis of TP concentrations in streams draining agricultural catchments did not reveal any significant trends. The large reduction in nutrient loading from point and non-point sources has in general improved the ecological conditions of Danish lakes in the form of increased summer Secchi depth, decreased chlorophyll a and reduced phytoplankton biomass. Major changes have also occurred in the fish communities in lakes, with positive cascading effects on water quality. In Danish estuaries and coastal waters only a few significant improvements in the ecological quality have been observed, although it is expected that the observed reduced nutrient concentrations are likely to improve the ecological quality of estuaries and coastal waters in Denmark in the long term.

Temporal trends and regional variations in gastrointestinal cancer mortality in Peru, 2005-2014.

PubMed

Hernández-Vásquez, Akram; Bendezú-Quispe, Guido; Azañedo, Diego; Huarez, Bertha; Rodríguez-Lema, Belén

2016-01-01

To estimate and analyze the evolution of mortality rates of gastrointestinal (GI) cancer in Peru and its regions between 2005-2014. We performed a nationwide secondary analysis of Peru's Health Ministry registry of deaths during the period 2005-2014, with a focus on regional differences. Deaths registered with codes C15 to C25 (malignant neoplasms of digestive organs) from the ICD-10 were included. Calculation of age-standarized mortality rates and years of life lost (YLL) due to GI cancer per 100,000 habitants were also performed. Data of 67,527 deaths from GI cancers was analyzed, 35,055 (51.91%) were women. In 2005, the number of GI cancer deaths was 6,484, for 2014, 7,532 cases were recorded. The GI cancer age-standarized mortality rates at the country level showed a decrease of 12.70% between 2005-2014. Stomach cancer presented the highest age-standarized mortality rate despite showing a downward trend in the last years, equal for gallbladder, liver and biliary tract, and esophagus cancer. Colorectal, small intestine and anus cancer show a progressive increase. In 2014, Callao (48.8), Huancavelica (48.5), La Libertad (39.6), Lambayeque (40.5) and Huanuco (38.9) had the highest rates. The three types of GI cancers with the highest rates of YLL in 2014 were stomach cancer (118.51), followed by liver and biliary tract cancer (58.68) and colorectal (44.86). GI cancer mortality in Peru is high and a priority issue in regions like Huancavelica, Huanuco, Callao, La Libertad and Lambayeque. Stomach cancer remains the most frequent GI cancer, but with a downward trend in the study period.

A nonparametric standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrological drought on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jingwen; Miao, Chiyuan; Tang, Xu; Duan, Qingyun; He, Xiaojia

2018-02-01

Drought is one of the world's most recurrent and destructive hazards, and the evolution of drought events has become increasingly complex against a background of climate change and changing human activities. Over the last five decades, there have been frequent droughts on the Loess Plateau in China. In this study, we used the nonparametric standardized runoff index (NSRI) to investigate the temporal characteristics of hydrological drought in 17 Loess Plateau catchments during the period 1961-2013. Furthermore, we used a cross-wavelet transform to reveal linkages between an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and the NSRI series. The primary results indicated that the annual and seasonal NSRI series displayed statistically significantly downward trends in all catchments, with the only exception being the winter NSRI series in Yanhe. Furthermore, our analyses showed downward trends persisting into the future in all 17 catchments except Yanhe. We also found that, overall, the risk of hydrological drought was high on the Loess Plateau, with the mean duration at the seasonal scale exceeding 4 months and the mean duration at the annual scale exceeding 12 months. Moreover, during recent years, the trend towards hydrological drought was greater in the spring than in other seasons. ENSO events were closely associated with annual and seasonal hydrological drought on the Loess Plateau, and the impact of ENSO events was stronger in the southeast of the plateau than the northwest at both seasonal and annual scales. These results may provide valuable information about the evolutionary characteristics of hydrological drought across the Loess Plateau and may also be useful for predicting and mitigating future hydrological drought on the plateau.

Trend discrepancies among three best track data sets of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jin-Jie; Wang, Yuan; Wu, Liguang

2010-06-01

The hot debate over the influence of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific over the past several decades is partly due to the diversity of TC data sets used in recent publications. This study investigates differences of track, intensity, frequency, and the associated long-term trends for those TCs that were simultaneously recorded by the best track data sets of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo, and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI). Though the differences in TC tracks among these data sets are negligibly small, the JTWC data set tends to classify TCs of category 2-3 as category 4-5, leading to an upward trend in the annual frequency of category 4-5 TCs and the annual accumulated power dissipation index, as reported by Webster et al. (2005) and Emanuel (2005). This trend and potential destructiveness over the period 1977-2007 are found only with the JTWC data set, but downward trends are apparent in the RSMC and STI data sets. It is concluded that the different algorithms used in determining TC intensity may cause the trend discrepancies of TC activity in the western North Pacific.

Downward Atmospheric Longwave Radiation in the City of Sao Paulo

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbaro, Eduardo W.; Oliveira, Amauri P.; Soares, Jacyra

2009-03-11

This work evaluates objectively the consistency and quality of a 9 year dataset based on 5 minute average values of downward longwave atmospheric (LW) emission, shortwave radiation, temperature and relative humidity. All these parameters were observed simultaneously and continuously from 1997 to 2006 in the IAG micrometeorological platform, located at the top of the IAG-USP building. The pyrgeometer dome emission effect was removed using neural network technique reducing the downward long wave atmospheric emission error to 3.5%. The comparison, between the monthly average values of LW emission observed in Sao Paulo and satellite estimates from SRB-NASA project, indicated a verymore » good agreement. Furthermore, this work investigates the performance of 10 empirical expressions to estimate the LW emission at the surface. The comparison between the models indicates that Brunt's one presents the better results, with smallest ''MBE,''''RMSE'' and biggest ''d'' index of agreement, therefore Brunt is the most indicated model to estimate LW emission under clear sky conditions in the city of Sao Paulo.« less

Federal R&D funding: 10-year trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Peter M.

Research and development (R&D) funded by the federal government has grown steadily since 1971, according to the National Science Foundation (NSF). The total federal R&D funding gained at an annual rate of 8.6% in actual dollars. Substantial gains, on the order of 15% over 1981, had originally been planned but later revised downward, close to 0%, for the fiscal year 1982. The essential features of the 10-year trend are that federal R&D funding has been mostly directed toward the military—over twice the amount of all other types of R&D funding—and while military research funding is accelerating sharply, other research funding is on the decline. In simple terms, the 10-year increases are only for national defense.

Self-organization of progress across the century of physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perc, Matjaž

2013-04-01

We make use of information provided in the titles and abstracts of over half a million publications that were published by the American Physical Society during the past 119 years. By identifying all unique words and phrases and determining their monthly usage patterns, we obtain quantifiable insights into the trends of physics discovery from the end of the 19th century to today. We show that the magnitudes of upward and downward trends yield heavy-tailed distributions, and that their emergence is due to the Matthew effect. This indicates that both the rise and fall of scientific paradigms is driven by robust principles of self-organization. Data also confirm that periods of war decelerate scientific progress, and that the later is very much subject to globalisation.

Meteorological factors controlling year-to-year variations in the spring onset of snow melt over the Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maksimovich, E.

2010-09-01

The spring onset of snow melt on the Arctic sea ice shows large inter-annual variability. Surface melt triggers positive feedback mechanisms between the albedo, snow properties and thickness, as well as sea ice thickness. Hence, it is important to quantify the factors contributing to inter-annual variability of the melt onset (MO) in various parts of the Arctic Ocean. Meteorological factors controlling surface heat budget and surface melting/freezing are the shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes and the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat. These fluxes depend on the weather conditions, including the radiative impact of clouds, heat advection and wind speed. We make use of SSM/I-based MO time series (Markus, Miller and Stroeve) and the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis on the meteorological conditions and surface fluxes, both data sets spanning the period 1989-2008 and covering recent years with a rapid sea ice decline. The advantage is that SSM/I-based MO time series are independent of the ERA-Interim data. Our objective is to investigate if there exists a physically consistent and statistically significant relationship between MO timing and corresponding meteorological conditions. Results based on the regression analysis between the MO timing and seasonal anomalies of surface longwave radiative fluxes reveal strong relationships. Synoptic scale (3-14 days) anomalies in downward longwave radiation are essential in the Western Arctic. Regarding the longer history (20-60 days) the distinct contribution from the downward longwave radiative fluxes is captured within the whole study region. Positive anomalies in the downward longwave radiation dominate over the simultaneous negative anomalies in the downward shortwave radiation. The anomalies in downward radiative fluxes are consistent with the total column water vapor, sea level pressure and 10-m wind direction. Sensible and latent heat fluxes affect surface melt timing in the Beaufort Sea and in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Basin. Stronger winds strengthen the relationship between the turbulent fluxes and the MO timing. The turbulent surface fluxes in spring are relatively weak, of the order of 1-10W/m2, compared to the downward shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes, which are of the order of 100-150W/m2. As soon as data uncertainties are comparable to the anomaly in turbulent fluxes, statistical relationships found between MO timing and preceding anomaly in turbulent fluxes do not necessarily prove their reasonal-causal relationship. This joint study of SSM/I-based MO record and the ERA-Interim meteorological fields region-wide with a focus on the seasonal transition demonstrates their consistency in time and space. Such result could be regarded as an important indicator that both data sets have the appropriate performance of the surface state in the Arctic Ocean. Nevertheless, an important additional effort is needed for to resolve better the cloud radiative and boundary layer turbulent processes over the sea ice.

Recent time trends in cancer of the oesophagus and gastric cardia in the region of Calvados in France, 1978-1995: a population based study.

PubMed

Desoubeaux, N; Le Prieur, A; Launoy, G; Maurel, J; Lefevre, H; Guillois, J M; Gignoux, M

1999-12-01

The incidence of oesophageal cancer differs from country to country, and even between areas of the same country. Many studies in recent years have shown an upward trend of a particular histologic type: adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus. It is difficult to precisely locate adenocarcinomas situated at the junction between the oesophagus and the gastric cardia. Clear criteria to define and classify such tumours are essential in order to analyse their evolution. The present study describes the changing incidence of cancers of the oesophagus and gastric cardia according to histologic type from 1978 to 1995 in Calvados, the highest-risk French region with two different topographic classifications of adenocarcinomas: one based on Misumi's criteria and the other based on local extension of cancer. In total, 1835 cancers of the oesophagus and gastric cardia were diagnosed in this period. Incidence rates for oesophageal and gastric cardia cancers standardized on the world population were 24.4/10(5) and 2.4/10(5) in men and 1.4/10(5) and 0.4/10(5) in women, respectively. The time trend in the incidence of squamous cell cancers was downward in men -0.74 (P < 10(-6)) and stable in women +0.04 (P = 0.65). Regarding adenocarcinomas, with the classification based on Misumi's categories, there was a slight but significant upward trend for oesophageal adenocarcinoma in men [mean annual variation of +0.09 (P < 10(-5))] while the tendency was downward and significant for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma [mean annual variation of -0.09 (P < 10(-4))]. When adenocarcinomas of the oesophagus and those of the gastric cardia with oesophageal involvement are taken together (second classification), there was an upward trend which was not significant in men and was significant in women. There was no such upward trend in adenocarcinomas limited to the gastric cardia and/or involving the stomach. Because of the difficulties in determining accurate localization routinely in population-based studies, it seems sensible to preclude classification biases in recommending the grouping together of gastric cardia adenocarcinomas with oesophageal adenocarcinomas, at least with those among the latter occurring in the lower third of the oesophagus.

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollmann, E. M.; Commaux, N.; Eidietis, N. W.; Lasnier, C. J.; Moyer, R. A.; Parks, P. B.; Shiraki, D.

2015-10-01

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but this phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. This IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.

Summary and Evaluation of the Quality of Stormwater in Denver, Colorado, October 2001 to October 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bossong, Clifford R.; Fleming, Andrea C.

2008-01-01

Stormwater in the Denver area was sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Urban Drainage and Flood Control District, in a network of five monitoring stations - three on the South Platte River and two on tributary streams, beginning in October 2001 and continuing through October 11, 2005. Composite samples of stormwater were analyzed at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory during water years 2003-2005 and the Metro Wastewater Reclamation District Laboratory during water year 2002 for water-quality properties such as pH, specific conductance, hardness, and residue on evaporation at 105 degrees Celsius; and for constituents such as major ions (calcium, chloride, fluoride, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and sulfate) in 2005, organic carbon and nutrients, including ammonia, nitrite plus nitrate, ammonia plus organic nitrogen, phosphorus, and orthophosphate; and for metals, including total and dissolved phases of copper, lead, manganese, and zinc. Samples analyzed for bacteriological indicators such as Escherichia coli and fecal coliform collected during selected storms also were analyzed at the Metro Wastewater Reclamation Laboratory. Discrete samples collected during selected storms were analyzed at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory for a suite of water-quality properties and constituents similar to those analyzed in the composite samples but that did not include determinations for total phases of metals. Streamflow characteristics associated with 176 composite stormwater samples indicate that most samples were collected from hydrographs classified as falling or event hydrographs and that only a few samples were collected from rising hydrographs. Results from laboratory analyses of the composite samples indicate spatial patterns in which concentrations for some constituents increase with contributing drainage area in the South Platte River and Sand Creek, but no well-defined relation with the amount of urban land cover was identified using data available from the U.S. Geological Survey National Land Cover data. Results from 22 discrete samples collected during two storms and used to obtain composited results with various weighting methods indicate that correlation coefficients between time-weighted and volume-weighted concentrations were generally at least 0.65, indicating a strong direct correlation between the two weighting methods for the stations involved in this study. In addition, the central tendency for relative percent differences between the time- and volume-weighting methods typically has an absolute value of about 10 or less, indicating good agreement for these weighting methods for data collected as part of this study. Comparison of stormwater results to numeric standards for streams developed by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment on the basis of use classifications indicates that, for water-quality properties and constituents other than bacteriological indicators, there were very few exceptions to numeric standards. Bacteriological indicators, however, such as Escherichia coli and fecal coliform consistently exceeded numeric standards in all bacteriological samples. An evaluation of laboratory results from composite samples on the basis of annual means indicates the presence of some simple upward and downward temporal trends in concentrations. In general, for annual means of results for all stations, hardness, ammonia plus organic nitrogen, total phosphorus, most dissolved metals (lead, manganese, and zinc), and all total metals (copper, lead, manganese, and zinc) all indicate annual means that decrease each year, or downward trends. Some trends were indicated only at individual stations in the network rather than at all stations. Ammonia as nitrogen at Union, Denver, and Henderson, orthophosphate at Sand Creek, and nitrite plus nitrate at Denver and Henderson all indicate decreasing annual means, or downward tr

Study of oil palm root architecture with variation of crop stage and soil type vulnerable to drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safitri, Lisma; Suryanti, Sri; Kautsar, Valensi; Kurniawan, Agung; Santiabudi, Fajar

2018-03-01

Root arhitecture is affected by watertable level, characteristic of soil, organic matter and also the crop stages. Root architecture spread horizontally and vertically which each consist of primary, secondary, tertiary and quaternary downward root. The oil palm root observation with variation of crop stage and soil type showed that the root of oil palm plant year 2008 on spodosols soil spread along 650 cm horizontally from the trunk and penetrate downward in range of 9-28 cm vertically. Planted in the same type of soil, the root of oil palm plant year 2004 spread along 650 cm horizontally and reached to downward in a larger range from 3 to 57 cm vertically. As a comparison, the root architecture of oil palm on inceptisols soil established the range much greater vertically than the previous. The root of oil palm plant year 2008 spread along 640 cm horizontally and penetrate downward in range of 52-90 cm vertically. With the variation of crop age, the root of oil palm plant year 2003 spread along 650 cm horizontally and reached to downward in a larger range from 150 to 200 cm vertically. Based on this study, root architecture of oil palm was varied and need to be detailed. The precise root architecture of oil palm allows a better understanding on hydrological properties of oil palm root particularly which is cultivated on soil type vulnerable to drought. Referring to this root architecture, it was enable to develop the study on early drought detection of oil palm to optimise production and towards oil palm sustainability.

The malleability of infant motor development: cautions based on studies of child-rearing practices in Yucatan.

PubMed

Solomons, H C

1978-11-01

Tests with the Bayley Motor Scale were given to 288 infants, equally divided by sex, in Yucatan, Mexico. These were 2 to 54 weeks in age and came from three sociocultural levels. In comparison to USA infants, early acceleration of motor development was followed by a marked downward trend. This phenomenon, if observed in a single child, may indicate progressive neurologic disease. Child-rearing practices would appear to account for the difference in pattern of test performance.

Rewetting of Monogroove Heat Pipe in Space Station Radiators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, S. H.; Shen, Ting Rong; Blake, John

1996-01-01

Experimental investigation of the rewetting characteristics of a uniformly heated grooved surface was performed, the results of which are presented in this work. It was found that, for a rewetting fluid of 2-propanol, the rewetting temperature was approx. 93-96 C for the upward-facing case and about 2 C lower for the downwardfacing case. When the initial plate temperature was higher than the rewetting temperature, the rewetting speed decreased with the initial plate temperature. The rewetting speed is also faster in the upward-facing case than in the downward-facing case for the same initial plate temperatures, which indicates a gravitational effect on rewetting. This trend is found to be consistent with the previously investigated end heating condition. The rewetting distance that is predicted by the conduction controlled model is found to be in fair agreement with the experimental data. Also, an apparatus that enables experiments to be performed in a reduced gravitational environment has been built and experiments are currently being performed. The design of this apparatus is presented along with preliminary data.

Water resources of Monroe County, New York, water years 1997-99, with emphasis on water quality in the Irondequoit Creek basin—Atmospheric deposition, ground water, streamflow, trends in water quality, and chemical loads to Irondequoit Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, Donald A.

2003-01-01

Irondequoit Creek drains 169 square miles in the eastern part of Monroe County. Over time, nutrients transported by Irondequoit Creek to Irondequoit Bay on Lake Ontario have contributed to the eutrophication of the bay. Sewage-treatment-plant effluent, a major source of nutrients to the creek and its tributaries, was eliminated from the basin in 1979 by diversion to a regional wastewater-treatment facility, but sediment and contaminants from nonpoint sources continue to enter the creek and Irondequoit Bay.This report, the fourth in a series of reports that present interpretive analyses of the hydrologic data collected in Monroe County since 1984, interprets data from four surface-water monitoring sites in the Irondequoit Creek basin—Irondequoit Creek at Railroad Mills, East Branch Allen Creek at Pittsford, Allen Creek near Rochester, and Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road. It also interprets data from three sites in the the Genesee River basin—Oatka Creek at Garbutt, Honeoye Creek at Honeoye Falls, and Black Creek at Churchville—as well as the Genesee River at Charlotte Pump Station, and also from a site on Northrup Creek at North Greece. The Northrup Creek site drains a 23.5-square-mile basin in western Monroe County, and provides information on surface-water quality in streams west of the Genesee River and on loads of nutrients delivered to Long Pond, a small eutrophic embayment of Lake Ontario. The report also includes water-level and water-quality data from nine observation wells in Ellison Park, and atmospheric-deposition data from a collection site at Mendon Ponds County Park.Average annual loads of some chemical constituents in atmospheric deposition for 1997–99 differed considerably from those for the long-term period 1984–96. Ammonia and potassium loads for 1997-99 were 144 and 118 percent greater, respectively, than for the previous period. Sodium and ammonia + organic nitrogen loads were 87 and 60 percent greater, respectively. Average annual loads of sulfate and orthophosphate for 1997-99 were 36 and 30 percent lower, respectively, than for the previous period.Loads of all nutrients deposited on the Irondequoit basin from atmospheric sources during 1997–99 greatly exceeded those transported by Irondequoit Creek. The ammonia load deposited on the basin was 139 times the load transported at Blossom Road (the most downstream site); the ammonia + organic nitrogen load was 6.3 times greater, orthophosphate 7.5 times greater, total phosphorus 1.3 times greater and nitrite + nitrate 1.5 times greater. Average yields of dissolved chloride and dissolved sulfate from atmospheric sources were much smaller than those transported by streamflow at Blossom Road.chloride was about 2 percent and sulfate about 8 percent of the amount transported.Trends in concentration of chemical constituents in surface water generally can be attributed to changes in land use, annual and seasonal variations in streamflow, and annual variations in the application of road salt to county highways and roads.Concentrations of several constituents in streams of the Irondequoit Creek basin showed statistically significant (α=0.05) trends from the beginning of their period of record through 1999. The constituent with the greatest number of significant trends was ammonia + organic nitrogen, with downward trends ranging from 4.1 to 5.6 percent per year at Allen Creek, Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road, and East Branch Allen Creek. Orthophosphate showed an upward trend of 4.1 percent per year at Irondequoit Creek at Railroad Mills (the most upstream site). Dissolved chloride showed upward trends at Railroad Mills, Allen Creek, and Blossom Road. No trends in volatile suspended solids were noted at any of the four Irondequoit basin sites.Northrup Creek showed significant downward trends in concentrations of ammonia + organic nitrogen (3.3 percent per year), total phosphorus (3.4 percent per year), and orthophosphate (5.5 percent per year), and an upward trend for dissolved sulfate (1.8 percent per year). The Genesee River at Charlotte Pump Station showed downward trends of 6.1 percent per year for ammonia + organic nitrogen and 0.1 percent per year for chloride, and upward trends of 1.7 percent per year for total phosphorus and 6.6 percent per year for orthophosphate.Mean annual yields (mass per unit area) of most constituents at the Irondequoit Creek basin sites were similar to those noted for the previous report period (1994–96). East Branch Allen Creek showed lower yields of all constituents during 1997–99 than previously, even though runoff during 1997–99 was greater. These lower yields are attributed to the construction of an upstream detention basin on East Branch Allen Creek in 1995.Statistical analysis of long-term (greater than 12 years) streamflow records for unregulated streams in Monroe County indicated that annual mean flows for water years 1997–99 were in the normal range (75th to 25th percentile), although Allen Creek continues to show a significant downward trend in mean monthly streamflow during the 1984–99 water years.

Nutrient and suspended-sediment trends, loads, and yields and development of an indicator of streamwater quality at nontidal sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, 1985-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langland, Michael; Blomquist, Joel; Moyer, Douglas; Hyer, Kenneth

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) updates information on loads of, and trends in, nutrients and sediment annually to help the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) investigators assess progress toward improving water-quality conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. CBP scientists and managers have worked since 1983 to improve water quality in the bay. In 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) established a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for the Chesapeake Bay. The TMDL specifies nutrient and sediment load allocations that need to be achieved in the watershed to improve dissolved oxygen, water-clarity, and chlorophyll conditions in the bay. The USEPA, USGS, and state and local jurisdictions in the watershed operate a CBP nontidal water-quality monitoring network and associated database that are used to update load and trend information to help assess progress toward reducing nutrient and sediment inputs to the bay. Data collected from the CBP nontidal network were used to estimate loads and trends for two time periods: a long-term period (1985-2010) at 31 "primary" sites (with storm sampling) and a 10-year period (2001-10) at 33 primary sites and 16 "secondary" sites (without storm sampling). In addition, loads at 64 primary sites were estimated for the period 2006 to 2010. Results indicate improving flow-adjusted trends for nitrogen and phosphorus for 1985 to 2010 at most of the sites in the network. For nitrogen, 21 of the 31 sites showed downward (improving) trends, whereas 2 sites showed upward (degrading) trends, and 8 sites showed no trends. The results for phosphorus were similar: 22 sites showed improving trends, 4 sites showed degrading trends, and 5 sites indicated no trends. For sediment, no trend was found at 40 percent of the sites, with 10 sites showing improving trends and 8 sites showing degrading trends. The USGS, working with CBP partners, developed a new water-quality indicator that combines the results of the 10-year trend analysis with results from a greater number of sites (64 primary sites) where loads and yields of total nitrogen and phosphorus and sediment could be calculated. The new indicator shows fewer significant trends for the 10-year time period than for the long-term time period (1985-2010). For 2001-10, total nitrogen trends were downward (improving) at 14 sites and upward (degrading) at 2 sites; no trend was found at 17 sites. For total phosphorus, 12 sites showed improving trends, 4 sites showed degrading trends, and 17 sites showed no trend. For total sediment, most sites (21) did not exhibit a significant trend; 3 sites showed improving trends, and 10 sites showed degrading trends. Few significant trends were seen at the 16 secondary sites: improving trends for total nitrogen at 4 sites, improving trends for total phosphorus at 2 sites, and a degrading trend for sediment at 1 site. Total streamflow to the Chesapeake Bay was 20 percent higher in 2010 than in 2009 and is considered to be within the normal range of flow, whereas annual streamflow at 28 sites was greater in 2010 than in 2009. No trends in daily streamflow were detected at the 31 long-term sites. Combined loads for the farthest downstream nontidal monitoring sites (called "River Input Monitoring sites") increased 33 percent for total nitrogen, 120 percent for total phosphorus, and 330 percent for total sediment from 2009 to 2010. The large increase in phosphorus and sediment loads in 2010 was caused in large part by two large storm events that occurred during the spring in the Potomac River Basin. Yields (load per watershed area) of total nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed decreased from north to south (New York to Virginia). No spatial patterns were discernible for total phosphorus or sediment.

Autobiographical Memory Specificity among Preschool-Aged Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nuttall, Amy K.; Valentino, Kristin; Comas, Michelle; McNeill, Anne T.; Stey, Paul C.

2014-01-01

"Overgeneral memory" refers to difficulty retrieving specific autobiographical memories and is consistently associated with depression and/or trauma. The present study developed a downward extension of the Autobiographical Memory Test (AMT; Williams & Broadbent, 1986) given the need to document normative developmental changes in…

Statistical trend analysis of groundwater data at Louisiana Army Ammunition Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhinge, D; Patel, J.; Skibinski, J.N.

1994-12-31

Statistical regression techniques were used to characterize temporal trends in groundwater monitoring data collected between 1980 and 1994 at Former Area P Lagoons, Louisiana Army Ammunition Plant (LAAP), a National Priorities List (NPL) site. Groundwater sampling data were evaluated for 12 wells (9 in the shallow aquifer and 3 in the deeper aquifer) and 9 contaminants of concern (COCs). A trend index (TI) was calculated from the sum of the number of improving and stable trends minus the number of deteriorating trends for each contaminant, each well, and the overall site. A positive TI indicates an improving trend for themore » site, contaminant, or well. Conversely, a negative TI indicates a deteriorating trend. The overall trend indices at the site for the shallow and deeper aquifers were found to be positive, indicating that the groundwater quality at Area P is generally improving. Interim remedial action was conducted at Area P from 1988 through 1990. The effect of remedial activities on groundwater quality was assessed by comparing the groundwater concentrations of nitro compounds measured immediately after the site remediation to those measured prior to the remedial action. The regression curves and the data indicated that a downward trend in the groundwater concentrations was observed immediately following the remediation activity at Area P. The trends from the regression analysis indicated that the overall remedy at Area P has been effective in reducing COC concentrations in groundwater.« less

Cancer incidence and mortality in children in the Mexican Social Security Institute (1996-2013).

PubMed

Fajardo-Gutiérrez, Arturo; González-Miranda, Guadalupe; Pachuca-Vázquez, Adriana; Allende-López, Aldo; Fajardo-Yamamoto, Liria Mitzuko; Rendón-Macías, Mario Enrique

2016-04-01

To identify the cancer incidence and mortality in Mexican Social Security Institute beneficiary (MSSI-B) children during 1996-2013. Both cancer cases (n=4 728) and deaths (n=2 378) were analyzed in MSSI-B children who were registered in five states of the Mexican Republic. The incidence and mortality trends and the incidences (rate x 1 000 000 children / year) of the type of cancer, age, sex, and place of residence were obtained. For both indicators (incidence and mortality), there was a downward trend for the period of 1996-2001 and a stable trend for 2002-2013. This occurred in the overall mortality and incidence trends of the Estado de México and Chiapas and in the leukemia and the acute lymphoid subgroups. The annual overall incidence was 128 cases per 1 000 000 children. Leukemia, lymphomas, and central nervous system tumors were the principal cancer groups. Cancer mortality for the period of 2002-2013 did not diminish. Interinstitutional and/or international research should be designed to improve the care of these children.

[Trend in inequalities in mortality due to external causes among the municipalities of Antioquia (Colombia)].

PubMed

Caicedo-Velásquez, Beatriz; Álvarez-Castaño, Luz Stella; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Borrell, Carme

2016-01-01

To analyse the trend in inequalities in mortality due to external causes among municipalities in Antioquia, department of Colombia, from 2000 to 2010, and its association with socioeconomic conditions. External causes included violent deaths, such as homicides, suicides and traffic accidents, among others. Ecological design of mortality trends, with the 125 municipalities of Antioquia as the unit of analysis. The age-adjusted smoothed standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was estimated for each of the municipalities by using an empirical Bayesian model. Differences in the SMR between the poorest and least poor municipalities were estimated by using a two-level hierarchical model (level-1: year, level-2: municipality). Mortality due to external causes showed a downward trend in the department in the period under review, although the situation was not similar in all municipalities. The findings showed that the risk of death from external causes significantly increased in poor and underdeveloped municipalities. Intervention is required through policies that take into account local differences in mortality due to external causes. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Association of school performance indicators with implementation of the Healthy Kids, Smart Kids program: case study

PubMed Central

Nansel, Tonja R.; Huang, Terry T.K.; Rovner, Alisha J.; Sanders-Butler, Yvonne

2009-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this analysis was to examine secular trends in school performance indicators in relationship to the implementation of a program targeting the school food and physical activity environment. Design: Data on available school performance indicators were obtained; retrospective analyses were conducted to assess trends in indicators in association with program implementation; each outcome was regressed on year, beginning with the year prior to program implementation. Setting: The Healthy Kids, Smart Kids program was a grass-roots effort to enhance the school food and physical activity environment in the Browns Mill Elementary School in Georgia. Subjects: Data included publicly available school records from the years 1995 to 2006. Results: The number of nurse, counseling, and disciplinary referrals per 100 students demonstrated a downward trend, while standardized test scores demonstrated an upward trend beginning the year of program implementation. School year was a significant predictor of all indicators. Conclusions: Promoting nutrition and physical activity within the school environment may be a promising approach for enhancing both student health and educational outcomes. PMID:19454125

Trends of abortion complications in a transition of abortion law revisions in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Gebrehiwot, Yirgu; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan

2009-03-01

Evidence from developed countries has shown that abortion-related mortality and morbidity has decreased with the liberalization of the abortion law. This study aimed to assess the trend of hospital-based abortion complications during the transition of legalization in Ethiopia in May 2005. Medical records of women with abortion complications from 2003 to 2007 were reviewed (n = 773). Abortion and its complications with regard to legalization were described by rates and ratios, and predictors of fatal outcomes were analyzed by logistic regression. The overall and abortion-related maternal mortality ratios (AMMRs) showed a non-statistically significant downward trend over the 5-year period. However, the case fatality rate of abortion increased from 1.1% in 2003 to 3.6% in 2007. Late gestational age, history of interference and presenting after new abortion legislation passed have been found to be significant predictors of mortality. Decreased trends of abortion ratio and the AMMR were identified, but the severity of abortion complications and the case fatality rate increased during the transition of legal revision.

Improving alcohol withdrawal outcomes in acute care.

PubMed

Melson, Jo; Kane, Michelle; Mooney, Ruth; Mcwilliams, James; Horton, Terry

2014-01-01

Excessive alcohol consumption is the nation's third leading cause of preventable deaths. If untreated, 6% of alcohol-dependent patients experience alcohol withdrawal, with up to 10% of those experiencing delirium tremens (DT), when they stop drinking. Without routine screening, patients often experience DT without warning. Reduce the incidence of alcohol withdrawal advancing to DT, restraint use, and transfers to the intensive care unit (ICU) in patients with DT. In October 2009, the alcohol withdrawal team instituted a care management guideline used by all disciplines, which included tools for screening, assessment, and symptom management. Data were obtained from existing datasets for three quarters before and four quarters after implementation. Follow-up data were analyzed and showed a great deal of variability in transfers to the ICU and restraint use. Percentage of patients who developed DT showed a downward trend. Incidence of alcohol withdrawal advancing to DT and, in patients with DT, restraint use and transfers to the ICU. Initial data revealed a decrease in percentage of patients with alcohol withdrawal who experienced DT (16.4%-12.9%). In patients with DT, restraint use decreased (60.4%-44.4%) and transfers to the ICU decreased (21.6%-15%). Follow-up data indicated a continued downward trend in patients with DT. Changes were not statistically significant. Restraint use and ICU transfers maintained postimplementation levels initially but returned to preimplementation levels by third quarter 2012. Early identification of patients for potential alcohol withdrawal followed by a standardized treatment protocol using symptom-triggered dosing improved alcohol withdrawal management and outcomes.

Studies on water resources carrying capacity in Tuhai river basin based on ecological footprint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chengshuai; Xu, Lirong; Fu, Xin

2017-05-01

In this paper, the method of the water ecological footprint (WEF) was used to evaluate water resources carrying capacity and water resources sustainability of Tuhai River Basin in Shandong Province. The results show that: (1) The WEF had a downward trend in overall volatility in Tuhai River Basin from 2003 to 2011. Agricultural water occupies high proportion, which was a major contributor to the WEF, and about 86.9% of agricultural WEF was used for farmland irrigation; (2) The water resources carrying capacity had a downward trend in general, which was mostly affected by some natural factors in this basin such as hydrology and meteorology in Tuhai River Basin; (3) Based on analysis of water resources ecological deficit, it can be concluded that the water resources utilization mode was in an unhealthy pattern and it was necessary to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in Tuhai River Basin; (4) In view of water resources utilization problems in the studied area, well irrigation should be greatly developed at the head of Yellow River Irrigation Area(YRIA), however, water from Yellow River should be utilized for irrigation as much as possible, combined with agricultural water-saving measures and controlled exploiting groundwater at the tail of YRIA. Therefore, the combined usage of surface water and ground water of YRIA is an important way to realize agricultural water saving and sustainable utilization of water resources in Tuhai River Basin.

Factors affecting nutrient trends in major rivers of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sprague, Lori A.; Langland, M.J.; Yochum, S.E.; Edwards, R.E.; Blomquist, J.D.; Phillips, S.W.; Shenk, G.W.; Preston, S.D.

2000-01-01

Trends in nutrient loads and flow-adjusted concentrations in the major rivers entering Chesapeake Bay were computed on the basis of water-quality data collected between 1985 and 1998 at 29 monitoring stations in the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, York, Patuxent, and Choptank River Basins. Two computer models?the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model (WSM) and the U.S. Geological Survey?s 'Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes' (SPARROW) Model?were used to help explain the major factors affecting the trends. Results from WSM simulations provided information on temporal changes in contributions from major nutrient sources, and results from SPARROW model simulations provided spatial detail on the distribution of nutrient yields in these basins. Additional data on nutrient sources, basin characteristics, implementation of management practices, and ground-water inputs to surface water were analyzed to help explain the trends. The major factors affecting the trends were changes in nutrient sources and natural variations in streamflow. The dominant source of nitrogen and phosphorus from 1985 to 1998 in six of the seven tributary basins to Chesapeake Bay was determined to be agriculture. Because of the predominance of agricultural inputs, changes in agricultural nutrient sources such as manure and fertilizer, combined with decreases in agricultural acreage and implementation of best management practices (BMPs), had the greatest impact on the trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations. Urban acreage and population, however, were noted to be increasing throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, and as a result, delivered loads of nutrients from urban areas increased during the study period. Overall, agricultural nutrient management, in combination with load decreases from point sources due to facility upgrades and the phosphate detergent ban, led to downward trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations atmany of the monitoring stations in the watershed. The loads of nutrients, however, were not reduced significantly at most of the monitoring stations. This is due primarily to higher streamflow in the latter years of the monitoring period, which led to higher loading in those years.Results of this study indicate a need for more detailed information on BMP effectiveness under a full range of hydrologic conditions and in different areas of the watershed; an internally consistent fertilizer data set; greater consideration of the effects of watershed processes on nutrient transport; a refinement of current modeling efforts; and an expansion of the non-tidal monitoring network in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

An Energetic Perspective on United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truchelut, Ryan E.; Staehling, Erica M.

2017-12-01

The extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season concluded an extended period of quiescent continental United States tropical cyclone landfall activity that began in 2006, commonly referred to as the landfall drought. We introduce an extended climatology of U.S. tropical cyclone activity based on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and use this data set to investigate variability and trends in landfall activity. The drought years between 2006 and 2016 recorded an average value of total annual ACE over the U.S. that was less than 60% of the 1900-2017 average. Scaling this landfall activity metric by basin-wide activity reveals a statistically significant downward trend since 1950, with the percentage of total Atlantic ACE expended over the continental U.S. at a series minimum during the recent drought period.

[Distribution of virtual water of crops in Beijing].

PubMed

Wang, Hong-Rui; Dong, Yan-Yan; Wang, Jun-Hong; Wang, Yan; Han, Zhao-Xing

2007-11-01

Virtual water content of grains and vegetables in Beijing's districts is calculated and analyzed for many years by irrigating water quota method, which is compared with the distribution and exploitation of groundwater in Beijing. The results indicate the virtual water content of grains shows a downward trend in all the districts, but the grain production in Yanqing district brings great pressure to the local groundwater. Secondly, the virtual water content of vegetables shows an upward trend in Shunyi District, Daxing district and Pinggu District and is accounting for more and more gradually. Thirdly, the total virtual water volume of grains is decreasing, and the total virtual water volume of vegetables is increasing and the total virtual water volume of crops in Beijing is reducing in recent years, which corresponds with the structural adjustment of policies.

Vertical tilts of tropospheric waves - Observations and theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebisuzaki, Wesley

1991-01-01

Two methods are used to investigate the vertical tilts of planetary waves as functions of zonal wavenumber and frequency. The vertical tilts are computed by cross-spectral analysis of the geopotential heights at different pressures. In the midlatitude troposphere, the eastward-moving waves had a westward tilt with height, as expected, but the westward-moving waves with frequencies higher than 0.2/d showed statistically significant eastward vertical tilts. For a free Rossby wave, this implies that the Eliassen-Palm flux is downward along with its energy propagation. A downward energy propagation suggests an upper-level source of these waves. It is proposed that the eastward-tilting waves were forced by the nonlinear interaction of stationary waves and baroclinically unstable cyclone-scale waves. The predicted vertical tilt and phase speed were consistent with the observations. In addition, simulations of a general circulation model were analyzed. In the control run, eastward-tilting waves disappeared when the sources of stationary waves were removed. This is consistent with the present theory.

[The economic crisis at the beginning of the XXI century and mortality in Spain. Trend and impact on social inequalities. SESPAS Report 2014].

PubMed

Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel; Córdoba-Doña, Juan Antonio; Bacigalupe, Amaia; Juárez, Sol; Escolar-Pujolar, Antonio

2014-06-01

This study aimed to assess the impact of the current economic crisis on mortality trends in Spain and its effect on social inequalities in mortality in Andalusia. We used data from vital statistics and the Population Register for 1999 to 2011, as provided by the Spanish Institute of Statistics, to estimate general and sex- and age-specific mortality rates. The Longitudinal Database of the Andalusian Population (2001 census cohort) was used to estimate general mortality rates and ratios by educational level. The annual percentages of change and trends were calculated using Joinpoint regressions. No significant change in the mortality trend was observed in Spain from 2008 onward. A downward trend after 1999 was confirmed for all causes and both sexes, with the exception of nervous system-related diseases. The reduction in mortality due to traffic accidents accelerated after 2003, while the negative trend in suicide was unchanged throughout the period studied. In Andalusia, social inequalities in mortality have increased among men since the beginning of the crisis, mainly due to a more intense reduction in mortality among persons with a higher educational level. Among women, no changes were observed in the pattern of inequality. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News

PubMed Central

Nghiem, Le T. P.; Papworth, Sarah K.; Lim, Felix K. S.; Carrasco, Luis R.

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics—approximated using Google search volume—varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public. PMID:27028399

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News.

PubMed

Nghiem, Le T P; Papworth, Sarah K; Lim, Felix K S; Carrasco, Luis R

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public.

Economic crisis and suicides in Spain. Socio-demographic and regional variability.

PubMed

Isabel, Ruiz-Perez; Miguel, Rodriguez-Barranco; Antonio, Rojas-Garcia; Oscar, Mendoza-Garcia

2017-04-01

Evidence from previous recessions suggests that at times of economic deterioration, suicides increase. Spain has been one of the European countries hardest hit by the financial crisis that started in 2008. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the double-dip recession in Spain on the most recent trends in suicide. Suicide data from the years 2002-2012 were obtained from the 'Death Statistic according to Cause of Death' of the National Statistics Institute (NSI). Population figures were obtained from the population estimates of the NSI. While the suicide rate decreased between 2002 and 2012, the downward trend has reversed twice, in 2008-2009, and in 2012. This rise was particularly pronounced in males, with the rate ratio of 1.12 (95 % CI 1.05-1.20) in 2008 and 1.10 (95 % CI 1.03-1.18) in 2009. Following a decrease in 2010 and 2011, suicides among males have increased again in 2012-with RR of 1.10 (95 % CI 1.03-1.18) compared to 2007, however the difference between 2011 amounted to 14 % rise-the biggest interannual change in a decade. There was a similar but less pronounced pattern in females. Regional data showed variable results. These results suggest that the Spanish economic crisis has been associated with suicide rates in 2008, 2009, and 2012. These findings are consistent with the double-dip recession that Spain experienced.

Voyager 1 Observations of a Recent Transient Disturbance in the Interstellar Medium Caused by an Energetic Solar Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurnett, D. A.; Kurth, W. S.; Stone, E. C.; Cummings, A. C.; Krimigis, S. M.; Decker, R. B.; Ness, N. F.; Burlaga, L. F.

2016-12-01

In late August 2012 the Voyager 1 spacecraft crossed the heliopause into the nearby interstellar medium. Since then the spacecraft has detected four distinct particle and field disturbances in the interstellar plasma, each believed to be produced by a shock originating from a solar event. Here we describe the fourth and most recent of these events. This event was first identified in the Low Energy Charged Particle (LECP) and Cosmic Ray (CRS) data around day 1, 2015, by the onset of a gradual downward trend in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays near 90° pitch angles. This decrease was briefly interrupted by a small recovery, and then resumed the decrease on day 100, 2015. The downward trend was followed about half a year later by the onset of intense bursts of electron plasma oscillations on day 250, 2015. The plasma oscillations continued with high intensities, the highest intensities yet observed, to about day 310, 2015, where they abruptly ended. The oscillation frequency was around 3.0 kHz, which corresponds to a local electron density of 0.11 cm-3, the highest yet measured in the interstellar medium. Near the end of the year, day 1, 2016, the downward trend in the 90° cosmic ray intensities reversed and started increasing, but has not yet returned to isotropy as of this writing. At the minimum, the 90° cosmic ray intensity at 200 MeV was depressed about 10% below the isotropic value. Overall, the new event has very similar characteristics to the three previous events, although differing in some details and of somewhat longer in duration. Most striking is the depression in the cosmic ray intensity near 90° pitch angles which in every case precedes the onset of the electron plasma oscillations. Since the electron plasma oscillations have been widely interpreted as being driven by electron beams streaming out ahead of an approaching shock (two of which have been directly detected), it appears that the depression in the cosmic ray intensities near 90° pitch angles is a precursor effect caused by reflection of cosmic rays from the magnetic field jump at the shock. Based on previous observations the shock is expected to be detected in the magnetic field around the time that the cosmic ray intensity becomes isotropic. However, as of the last magnetic field data processed, Jan. 1, 2016, no shock had been detected.

Fate and transport modeling of selected chlorinated organic compounds at Operable Unit 3, U.S. Naval Air Station, Jacksonville, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, J. Hal

2000-01-01

Ground water contaminated by the chlorinated organic compounds trichloroethene (TCE), cis-dichloroethene (DCE), and vinyl chloride (VC) has been found in the surficial aquifer beneath the Naval Aviation Depot at the U.S. Naval Air Station, Jacksonville, Florida. The affected area is designated Operable Unit 3 (OU3) and covers 134 acres adjacent to the St. Johns River. Site-specific ground-water flow modeling was conducted at OU3 using MODFLOW, and solute-transport modeling was conducted using MT3DMS. Simulations using a low dispersivity value, which resulted in the highest concentration discharging to the St. Johns River, gave the following results. At 60 years traveltime, the highest concentration of TCE associated with the Area C plume had discharged to St. Johns River at a level that exceeded 1x103 micrograms per liter (ug/L). At 100 years traveltime, the highest concentration of TCE associated with the Area D plume had discharged to the river at a level exceeding 3x103 ug/L. At 200 years traveltime, the Area B plume had not begun discharging to the river. Simulations using a first-order decay rate half-life of 13.5 years (the slowest documented) at Area G caused the TCE to degrade before reaching the St. Johns River. If the ratio of the concentrations of TCE to cis-DCE and VC remained relatively constant, these breakdown products would not reach the river. However, the actual breakdown rates of cis-DCE and VC are unknown. Simulations were repeated using average dispersivity values with the following results. At 60 years traveltime, the highest concentration of TCE associated with the Area C plume had discharged to St. Johns River at a level exceeding 4x102 ug/L. At 100 years traveltime, the highest concentration of TCE associated with the Area D plume had discharged to the river at a level exceeding 1x103 ug/L. At 200 years traveltime, the Area B plume had not begun discharging to the river. 'Pump and treat' was simulated as a remedial alternative. The concentration of TCE at Area B trended rapidly downward; however, one isolated pocket of TCE remained because of the low-permeability sediments present at this area. The concentration of TCE at Area C trended rapidly downward and was below 1 ug/L in about 16 years. The concentration of TCE at Area D also trended rapidly downward and was below 1 mg/L in about 18 years.

Corona discharges and their effect on lightning attachment revisited: Upward leader initiation and downward leader interception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerra, Marley

2014-11-01

Previous studies have suggested the possibility of using glow corona discharges to control the frequency of lightning flashes to grounded objects. In order to revisit the theoretical basis of this proposal, the self-consistent leader inception and propagation model - SLIM - is used together with a two-dimensional glow corona drift model. The analysis is performed to quantify the effect of glow corona generated at the tip of ground-based objects on the initiation and propagation of upward positive connecting leaders under the influence of downward lightning leaders. It is found that the presence of glow corona does not influence the performance of Franklin lightning rods shorter than 15 m, while it slightly reduces the lateral distance of rods up to 60 m tall by a maximum of 10%. Furthermore, the results indicate that it is not possible to suppress the initiation of upward connecting leaders by means of glow corona. It is found instead that unconventional lightning protection systems based on the generation of glow corona attract downward lightning flashes in a similar way as a standard lightning rod with the same height.

Clear-Sky Surface Solar Radiation During South China Sea Monsoon Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Po-Hsiung; Chou, Ming-Dah; Ji, Qiang; Tsay, Si-Chee; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Downward solar fluxes measured at Dungsha coral island (20 deg. 42 min. N, 116 deg. 43 min. E) during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (May-June 1998) have been calibrated and compared with radiative transfer calculations for three clear-sky days. Model calculations use water vapor and temperature profiles from radiosound measurements and the aerosol optical thickness derived from sunphotometric radiance measurements at the surface. Results show that the difference between observed and model-calculated downward fluxes is less than 3% of the daily mean. Averaged over the three clear days, the difference reduces to 1%. The downward surface solar flux averaged over the three days is 314 W per square meters from observations and 317 W per square meters from model calculations, This result is consistent with a previous study using TOGA CAORE measurements, which found good agreements between observations and model calculations. This study provides an extra piece of useful information on the modeling of radiative transfer, which fills in the puzzle of the absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere.

Trends in stage-specific breast cancer incidence in New South Wales, Australia: insights into the effects of 25 years of screening mammography.

PubMed

Jacklyn, Gemma; McGeechan, Kevin; Irwig, Les; Houssami, Nehmat; Morrell, Stephen; Bell, Katy; Barratt, Alexandra

2017-12-01

Screening mammography aims to improve breast cancer (BC) prognosis by increasing the incidence of early-stage tumours in order to decrease the incidence of late-stage cancer, but no reports have investigated these potential effects in an Australian population. Therefore we aimed to identify temporal trends in stage-specific BC in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, between 1972 and 2012. An observational study of women who received a diagnosis of BC from 1972-2012 as recorded in the NSW Cancer Registry, a population-based registry with almost complete coverage and high rates of histological verification. We analysed trends in stage-specific incidence before screening and compared them to periods after screening began. Our primary group of interest was women in the target age range of 50-69 years, though trends in women outside the target age were also assessed. Screening was not associated with lower incidence of late-stage BC at diagnosis. Incidence for all stages remained higher than prescreening levels. In women aged 50-69 years, the incidence of carcinoma in situ (CIS), localised and regional BC has more than doubled compared to the prescreening era, with incidence rate ratios ranging from 2.0 for regional (95% CI 1.95-2.13) to 121.8 for CIS (95% CI 82.58-179.72). Before the introduction of screening, there was a downward trend in distant metastatic BC incidence, and after the introduction of screening there was an increase (IRR 1.8; 95% CI 1.62-2.00). In women too young to screen the incidence of late-stage BC at diagnosis also increased, whereas localised disease was stable. The incidence of all stages of BC has increased over the past 40 years, with the greatest rise seen during the established screening period for women aged 50-69 years. Our findings suggest that some of the expected benefits of screening may not have been realised and are consistent with overdiagnosis.

HIV trend among Iranian prisoners in 1990s and 2000s; analysis of aggregated data from HIV sentinel sero-surveys

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Using the aggregated data of all sentinel sero-surveys (1991 to 2007), this study aimed to report the HIV trend among Iranian prisoners. Method Overall, we analysed the aggregated data from 397 HIV sero-surveys conducted in 72 prisons (included 155,771 prisoners) from 1991 through 2007. Results The overall HIV prevalence was 2.8% (95% CI: 1.8%-4.3%). In 1998, HIV prevalence dramatically increased to 4.5% (95% CI: 1.1%-16.8%), which later became stable at level of 2.8%. Prisons were so heterogeneous regarding HIV prevalence (0% to 13.2%). Conclusion Since the outbreak, the ministry of health has acknowledged prisoners as one of the high-risk groups for HIV, increased the number of sentinel surveys and on-site harm reduction services to better monitor and response to the HIV epidemic. The downward trend of HIV prevalence after 2005 suggests the effectiveness of such interventions which need to be continued. PMID:24257447

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Practices and attitudes of doctors and patients to downward referral in Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Yu, Wenya; Li, Meina; Nong, Xin; Ding, Tao; Ye, Feng; Liu, Jiazhen; Dai, Zhixing; Zhang, Lulu

2017-01-01

Objectives In China, the rate of downward referral is relatively low, as most people are unwilling to be referred from hospitals to community health systems (CHSs). The aim of this study was to explore the effect of doctors' and patients' practices and attitudes on their willingness for downward referral and the relationship between downward referral and sociodemographic characteristics. Methods Doctors and patients of 13 tertiary hospitals in Shanghai were stratified through random sampling. The questionnaire surveyed their sociodemographic characteristics, attitudes towards CHSs and hospitals, understanding of downward referral, recognition of the community first treatment system, and downward referral practices and willingness. Descriptive statistics, χ2 test and stepwise logistic regression analysis were employed for statistical analysis. Results Only 20.8% (161/773) of doctors were willing to accept downward referrals, although this proportion was higher among patients (37.6%, 326/866). Doctors' willingness was influenced by education, understanding of downward referral, and perception of health resources in hospitals. Patients' willingness was influenced by marital status, economic factors and recognition of the community first treatment system. Well-educated doctors who do not consider downward referral would increase their workloads and those with a more comprehensive understanding of hospitals and downward referral process were more likely to make a downward referral decision. Single-injury patients fully recognising the community first treatment system were more willing to accept downward referral. Patients' willingness was significantly increased if downward referral was cost-saving. A better medical insurance system was another key factor for patients to accept downward referral decisions, especially for the floating population. Conclusions To increase the rate of downward referral, the Chinese government should optimise the current referral system and conduct universal publicity for downward referral. Doctors and patients should promote understandings of downward referral. Hospitals should realise the necessity of downward referral, effectively reduce workloads and provide continuing education for doctors. Increasing monetary reimbursement is urgent, as is improving the medical insurance system. PMID:28373247

A direct estimate of evapotranspiration over the Amazon basin and implications for our understanding of carbon and water cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, A. L. S.; Koven, C.; Lombardozzi, D.; Bonan, G. B.

2017-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical term in the surface energy budget as well as the water cycle. There are few direct measurements of ET, and thus the magnitude and variability is poorly constrained at large spatial scales. Estimates of the annual cycle of ET over the Amazon are critical because they influence predictions of the seasonal cycle of carbon fluxes, as well as atmospheric dynamics and circulation. We estimate ET for the Amazon basin using a water budget approach, by differencing rainfall, discharge, and time-varying storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. We find that the climatological annual cycle of ET over the Amazon basin upstream of Óbidos shows suppression of ET during the wet season, and higher ET during the dry season, consistent with flux tower based observations in seasonally dry forests. We also find a statistically significant decrease in ET over the time period 2002-2015 of -1.46 mm/yr. Our direct estimate of the seasonal cycle of ET is largely consistent with previous indirect estimates, including energy budget based approaches, an up-scaled station based estimate, and land surface model estimates, but suggests that suppression of ET during the wet season is underestimated by existing products. We further quantify possible contributors to the phasing of the seasonal cycle and downward time trend using land surface models.

Water-quality characteristics and trend analyses for the Tongue, Powder, Cheyenne, and Belle Fourche River drainage basins, Wyoming and Montana, for selected periods, water years 1991 through 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Melanie L.

2012-01-01

The Powder River structural basin in northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana is an area of ongoing coalbed natural gas (CBNG) development. Waters produced during CBNG development are managed with a variety of techniques, including surface impoundments and discharges into stream drainages. The interaction of CBNG-produced waters with the atmosphere and the semiarid soils of the Powder River structural basin can affect water chemistry in several ways. Specific conductance and sodium adsorption ratios (SAR) of CBNG-produced waters that are discharged to streams have been of particular concern because they have the potential to affect the use of the water for irrigation. Water-quality monitoring has been conducted since 2001 at main-stem and tributary sites in the Tongue, Powder, Cheyenne, and Belle Fourche River drainage basins in response to concerns about CBNG effects. A study was conducted to summarize characteristics of stream-water quality for water years 2001–10 (October 1, 2000, to September 30, 2010) and examine trends in specific conductance, SAR, and primary constituents that contribute to specific conductance and SAR for changes through time (water years 1991–2010) that may have occurred as a result of CBNG development. Specific conductance and SAR are the focus characteristics of this report. Dissolved calcium, magnesium, and sodium, which are primary contributors to specific conductance and SAR, as well as dissolved alkalinity, chloride, and sulfate, which are other primary contributors to specific conductance, also are described. Stream-water quality in the Tongue, Powder, Cheyenne, and Belle Fourche River drainage basins was variable during water years 2001–10, in part because of variations in streamflow. In general, annual runoff was less than average during water years 2001–06 and near or above average during water years 2007–10. Stream water of the Tongue River had the smallest specific conductance values, sodium adsorption ratios, and major ion concentrations of the main-stem streams. Sites in the Tongue River drainage basin typically had the smallest range of specific conductance and SAR values. The water chemistry of sites in the Powder River drainage basin generally was the most variable as a result of diverse characteristics of that basin. Plains tributaries in the Powder River drainage basin had the largest range of specific conductance and SAR values, in part due to the many tributaries that receive CBNG-produced waters. Trends were analyzed using the seasonal Kendall test with flow-adjusted concentrations to determine changes to water quality through time at sites in the Tongue, Powder, Cheyenne, and Belle Fourche River drainage basins. Trends were evaluated for water years 2001–10 for 17 sites, which generally were on the main-stem streams and primary tributaries. Trends were evaluated for water years 2005–10 for 26 sites to increase the spatial coverage of sites. Trends were evaluated for water years 1991–2010 for eight sites to include water-quality data collected prior to widespread CBNG development and expand the temporal context of trends. Consistent patterns were not observed in trend results for water years 2001–10 for flow-adjusted specific conductance and SAR values in the Tongue, Powder, and Belle Fourche River drainage basins. Significant (p-values less than 0.05) upward trends in flow-adjusted specific conductance values were determined for 3 sites, a downward trend was determined for 1 site, and no significant (p-value greater than 0.05) trends were determined for 13 sites. One of the sites with a significant upward trend was the Tongue River at the Wyoming-Montana State line. No trend in flow-adjusted specific conductance values was determined for the Powder River at Moorhead, Mont. Significant upward trends in flow-adjusted SAR values were determined for 2 sites and no significant trends were determined for 15 sites. No trends in flow-adjusted SAR values were determined for the Tongue River at the Wyoming-Montana State line or for the Powder River at Moorhead, Mont. One of the sites with a significant upward trend in flow-adjusted SAR values was the Powder River at Arvada, Wyo. For water years 2005–10, significant upward trends in flow-adjusted specific conductance values were determined no significant trends were determined for 13 sites. A significant upward trend was determined for flow-adjusted specific conductance values for the Tongue River at the Wyoming-Montana State line. No trend in flow-adjusted specific conductance values was determined for the Powder River at Moorhead, Mont. Significant upward trends in flow-adjusted SAR values were determined for 4 sites, downward trends were determined for 5 sites, and no significant trend was determined for 17 sites. No trends in flow-adjusted SAR values were determined for the Tongue River at the Wyoming-Montana State line or for the Powder River at Moorhead, Mont. Results of the seasonal Kendall test applied to flow-adjusted specific conductance values for water years 1991–2010 indicated no significant trend for eight sites in the Tongue, Powder, and Belle Fourche River drainage basins. No significant trend in flow-adjusted specific conductance was determined for the Tongue River at the Wyoming-Montana State line or the Powder River at Moorhead, Mont. Results of the seasonal Kendall test applied to flow-adjusted SAR values for water years 1991–2010 indicated an upward trend for one site and no significant trend for four sites in the Powder and Belle Fourche River drainage basins. The significant upward trend in flow-adjusted SAR values was determined for the Powder River at Arvada, Wyo., for water years 1991–2010. Results indicate that CBNG development in the Powder River structural basin may have contributed to some trends, such as the upward trend in flow-adjusted SAR for the Powder River at Arvada, Wyo., for water years 1991–2010. An upward trend in flow-adjusted alkalinity concentrations for water years 2001–10 also was determined for the Powder River at Arvada, Wyo. Trend results are consistent with changes that can occur from the addition of sodium and bicarbonate associated with CBNG-produced waters to the Powder River. Upward trends in constituents at other sites, including the Belle Fourche River, may be the result of declining CBNG development, indicating that CBNG-produced waters may have had a dilution effect on some streams. The factors affecting other trends could not be determined because multiple factors could have been affecting the stream-water quality or because trends were observed at sites upstream from CBNG development that may have affected water-quality trends at sites downstream.

Precipitation Impacts of a Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.; Frei, A.; Gong, G.; Ghatak, D.; Robinson, D. A.; Kindig, D.

2009-12-01

Since the beginning of the modern satellite record in October 1978, the extent of Arctic sea ice has declined in all months, with the strongest downward trend at the end of the melt season in September. Recently the September trends have accelerated. Through 2001, the extent of September sea ice was decreasing at a rate of -7 per cent per decade. By 2006, the rate of decrease had risen to -8.9 per cent per decade. In September 2007, Arctic sea ice extent fell to its lowest level recorded, 23 per cent below the previous record set in 2005, boosting the downward trend to -10.7 per cent per decade. Ice extent in September 2008 was the second lowest in the satellite record. Including 2008, the trend in September sea ice extent stands at -11.8 percent per decade. Compared to the 1970s, September ice extent has retreated by 40 per cent. Summer 2009 looks to repeat the anomalously low ice conditions that characterized the last couple of years. Scientists have long expected that a shrinking Arctic sea ice cover will lead to strong warming of the overlying atmosphere, and as a result, affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. Recent results show clear evidence of Arctic warming linked to declining ice extent, yet observational evidence for responses of atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns is just beginning to emerge. Rising air temperatures should lead to an increase in the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere, with the potential to impact autumn precipitation. Although climate models predict a hemispheric wide decrease in snow cover as atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase, increased precipitation, particular in autumn and winter may result as the Arctic transitions towards a seasonally ice free state. In this study we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a cyclone tracking algorithm to investigate the influence of recent extreme ice loss years on precipitation patterns in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. Results show enhanced cyclone associated precipitation in autumn over Siberia for anomalously low ice years compared with anomalously high ice years along with a strengthening of the North Atlantic Storm track.

[Temporal dynamics of ethnic assortativeness in the Tsivil'sk region of Chuvashia].

PubMed

El'chinova, G I; Znichenko, R A; Ginter, E K

2003-04-01

Based on marriage records for 1950-1959, 1970-1979, and 1990-1999, ethnic assortativeness of Chuvash and Russian inhabitants of Tsivil'sk raion of the Chuvash Republic was calculated. It was shown that in half a century ethnic assortativeness of Chuvashes did not change (1.18, 1.15, and 1.15), while in Russians a clear downward trend was observed (4.20, 2.18, and 1.28). The data on ethnic assortativeness obtained were compared with those for the same populations from other regions of the Chuvashia examined earlier.

12 days of altitude exposure at 1800 m does not increase resting metabolic rate in elite rowers.

PubMed

Woods, Amy L; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Rice, Anthony; Thompson, Kevin G

2017-06-01

Four elite rowers completed a 12-day altitude training camp living at 1800 m, and training at 1800 m and 915 m, to assess changes in resting metabolic rate (RMR). RMR and body composition were assessed pre- and postcamp. Downward trends in RMR and body composition were observed postaltitude: absolute RMR (percent change: -5.2%), relative RMR (-4.6%), body mass (-1.2%), and fat mass (-4.1%). These variations are likely related to the hypoxic stimulus and an imbalance between training load and energy intake.

The downward flux of biogenic material in the NE subarctic Pacific: importance of algal sinking and mesozooplankton herbivory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, D.; Roy, S.; Wong, C. S.; Bishop, J. K.

1999-11-01

In the present study we examine factors that affect the downward flux of biogenic carbon in the NE subarctic Pacific, one of the important high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll (HNLC) regions in the open ocean. We focus on the role of mesozooplankton, since their seasonal peaks in biomass and growth are in phase with the seasonal variations in the downward POC fluxes, whereas phytoplankton biomass is more-or-less uniform year-round. The relative importance of mesozooplankton and algal sinking was examined using the pigment composition of material accumulated in short-term free-drifting sediment traps positioned just below the upper stratified surface layer (ca. 100-200 m). This was compared with the phytoplankton composition in the surface waters, and with the grazing activity (gut pigments and fecal pellet production rates) of the most abundant large copepods. We also examined whether the relationships between the downward flux of carbon and pelagic processes were similar in the coastal, continental margin and offshore HNLC regions of the NE subarctic Pacific, the latter represented by Ocean Station Papa (OSP). Our results show that grazing had a variable impact on the downward flux of biogenic carbon. Carbon-transformed pheopigments (particularly pyropheophorbide a, frequently associated with copepod grazing) represented up to 13% of the total downward POC flux inshore (in May 1996) and 8-9% at OSP in May and February 1996, respectively. This flux of pheopigments was accompanied by a large potential input of fecal pellets from large copepods (as estimated from defecation rates of freshly collected animals) only in May 1996 at OSP, suggesting that pheopigments came from other sources (other herbivores, senescing algae) in February. The larger flux of pheopigments in May was probably related to the abundance of mesozooplankton at that time of the year. During summer (August 1996), both the flux of pheopigments and the potential input of fecal pellets from large copepods were negligible at OSP, consistent with more intense pelagic recycling reported in other studies. Inshore, the flux of carbon-transformed pheopigments was slightly higher than at OSP, and its contribution to the downward POC flux in May 1996 was twice that in August 1996. In contrast, the potential input of feces carbon was higher in August than in May 1996, again suggesting other sources for pheopigments found in the traps. The contribution of sinking phytoplankton to the downward biogenic flux was negligible in summer, when prymnesiophytes (indicated by the presence of 19'-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin) and pelagophytes (19'-butanoyloxyfucoxanthin-containing) dominated in surface offshore waters. The contribution of sinking algae was maximal (9%) in winter (February 1996) at OSP, when fucoxanthin (mainly a diatom marker) dominated the carotenoid composition in the traps and when the abundance of diatoms in surface waters showed its seasonal maximum for this station. Inshore, the low contribution of diatoms (fucoxanthin) to the sinking fluxes may have resulted from inadequate sampling (i.e. the spring bloom may have been missed). Overall, we conclude that: (a) large copepods significantly influenced the downward POC flux only during spring at OSP; (b) unidentified herbivores (e.g. salps, pteropods) producing pigmented, fast-sinking fecal material likely had an important impact during winter; (c) algal sinking made a small contribution to the downward POC flux (maximum in winter); and (d) neither algal sinking nor mesozooplankton grazing had a significant influence on the downward flux of biogenic material in summer at OSP.

Monitoring progress in population health: trends in premature death rates.

PubMed

Remington, Patrick L; Catlin, Bridget B; Kindig, David A

2013-12-26

Trends in population health outcomes can be monitored to evaluate the performance of population health systems at the national, state, and local levels. The objective of this study was to compare and contrast 4 measures for assessing progress in population health improvement by using age-adjusted premature death rates as a summary measure of the overall health outcomes in the United States and in all 50 states. To evaluate the performance of statewide population health systems during the past 20 years, we used 4 measures of age-adjusted premature (<75 years of age) death rates: current rates (2009), baseline trends (1990s), follow-up trends (2000s), and changes in trends from baseline to the follow-up periods (ie, "bending the curve"). Current premature death rates varied by approximately twofold, with the lowest rate in Minnesota (268 deaths per 100,000) and the highest rate in Mississippi (482 deaths per 100,000). Rates improved the most in New York during the baseline period (-3.05% per year) and in New Jersey during the follow-up period (-2.87% per year), whereas Oklahoma ranked last in trends during both periods (-0.30%/y, baseline; +0.18%/y, follow-up). Trends improved the most in Connecticut, bending the curve downward by -1.03%; trends worsened the most in New Mexico, bending the curve upward by 1.21%. Current premature death rates, recent trends, and changes in trends vary by state in the United States. Policy makers can use these measures to evaluate the long-term population health impact of broad health care, behavioral, social, and economic investments in population health.

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hollmann, E. M.; Commaux, Nicolas J. C.; Eidietis, N. W.

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but thismore » phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. Furthermore, this IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.« less

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hollmann, E. M.; Moyer, R. A.; Commaux, N.

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but thismore » phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. This IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.« less

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

DOE PAGES

Hollmann, E. M.; Commaux, Nicolas J. C.; Eidietis, N. W.; ...

2015-10-12

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but thismore » phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. Furthermore, this IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.« less

Asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis of California electricity spot price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Qingju

2016-01-01

In this paper, we develop a new method called asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis, which is an extension of asymmetric detrended fluctuation analysis (A-DFA) and can assess the asymmetry correlation properties of series with a variable scale range. We investigate the asymmetric correlations in California 1999-2000 power market after filtering some periodic trends by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our findings show the coexistence of symmetric and asymmetric correlations in the price series of 1999 and strong asymmetric correlations in 2000. What is more, we detect subtle correlation properties of the upward and downward price series for most larger scale intervals in 2000. Meanwhile, the fluctuations of Δα(s) (asymmetry) and | Δα(s) | (absolute asymmetry) are more significant in 2000 than that in 1999 for larger scale intervals, and they have similar characteristics for smaller scale intervals. We conclude that the strong asymmetry property and different correlation properties of upward and downward price series for larger scale intervals in 2000 have important implications on the collapse of California power market, and our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms of power price.

Practices and attitudes of doctors and patients to downward referral in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Yu, Wenya; Li, Meina; Nong, Xin; Ding, Tao; Ye, Feng; Liu, Jiazhen; Dai, Zhixing; Zhang, Lulu

2017-04-03

In China, the rate of downward referral is relatively low, as most people are unwilling to be referred from hospitals to community health systems (CHSs). The aim of this study was to explore the effect of doctors' and patients' practices and attitudes on their willingness for downward referral and the relationship between downward referral and sociodemographic characteristics. Doctors and patients of 13 tertiary hospitals in Shanghai were stratified through random sampling. The questionnaire surveyed their sociodemographic characteristics, attitudes towards CHSs and hospitals, understanding of downward referral, recognition of the community first treatment system, and downward referral practices and willingness. Descriptive statistics, χ 2 test and stepwise logistic regression analysis were employed for statistical analysis. Only 20.8% (161/773) of doctors were willing to accept downward referrals, although this proportion was higher among patients (37.6%, 326/866). Doctors' willingness was influenced by education, understanding of downward referral, and perception of health resources in hospitals. Patients' willingness was influenced by marital status, economic factors and recognition of the community first treatment system. Well-educated doctors who do not consider downward referral would increase their workloads and those with a more comprehensive understanding of hospitals and downward referral process were more likely to make a downward referral decision. Single-injury patients fully recognising the community first treatment system were more willing to accept downward referral. Patients' willingness was significantly increased if downward referral was cost-saving. A better medical insurance system was another key factor for patients to accept downward referral decisions, especially for the floating population. To increase the rate of downward referral, the Chinese government should optimise the current referral system and conduct universal publicity for downward referral. Doctors and patients should promote understandings of downward referral. Hospitals should realise the necessity of downward referral, effectively reduce workloads and provide continuing education for doctors. Increasing monetary reimbursement is urgent, as is improving the medical insurance system. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Duration-dependent effects of clinically relevant oral alendronate doses on cortical bone toughness in beagle dogs

PubMed Central

Burr, David B.; Liu, Ziyue; Allen, Matthew R.

2014-01-01

Bisphosphonates (BPs) have been shown to significantly reduce bone toughness in vertebrae within one year when given at clinical doses to dogs. Although BPs also reduce toughness in cortical bone when given at high doses, their effect on cortical bone material properties when given at clinical doses is less clear. In part, this may be due to the use of small sample sizes that were powered to demonstrate differences in bone mineral density rather than bone’s material properties. Our lab has conducted several studies in which dogs were treated with alendronate at a clinically relevant dose. The goal of this study was to examine these published and unpublished data collectively to determine whether there is a significant time-dependent effect of alendronate on toughness of cortical bone. This analysis seemed particularly relevant given the recent occurrence of atypical femoral fractures in humans. Differences in the toughness of ribs taken from dogs derived from five separate experiments were measured. The dogs were orally administered saline (CON, 1 ml/kg/day) or alendronate (ALN) at a clinical dose (0.2 mg/kg/day). Treatment duration ranged from 3 months to 3 years. Groups were compared using ANOVA, and time trends analyzed with linear regression analysis. Linear regressions of the percent difference in toughness between CON and ALN at each time point revealed a significant reduction in toughness with longer exposure to ALN. The downward trend was primarily driven by a downward trend in post-yield toughness, whereas toughness in the pre-yield region was not changed relative to CON. These data suggest that a longer duration of treatment with clinical doses of ALN results in deterioration of cortical bone toughness in a time-dependent manner. As the duration of treatment is lengthened, the cortical bone exhibits increasingly brittle behavior. This may be important in assessing the role that long-term BP treatments play in the risk of atypical fractures of femoral cortical bone in humans. PMID:25445446

Public reporting influences antibiotic and injection prescription in primary care: a segmented regression analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Chenxi; Zhang, Xinping; Wan, Jie

2015-08-01

Inappropriate use and overuse of antibiotics and injections are serious threats to the global population, particularly in developing countries. In recent decades, public reporting of health care performance (PRHCP) has been an instrument to improve the quality of care. However, existing evidence shows a mixed effect of PRHCP. This study evaluated the effect of PRHCP on physicians' prescribing practices in a sample of primary care institutions in China. Segmented regression analysis was used to produce convincing evidence for health policy and reform. The PRHCP intervention was implemented in Qian City that started on 1 October 2013. Performance data on prescription statistics were disclosed to patients and health workers monthly in 10 primary care institutions. A total of 326 655 valid outpatient prescriptions were collected. Monthly effective prescriptions were calculated as analytical units in the research (1st to 31st every month). This study involved multiple assessments of outcomes 13 months before and 11 months after PRHCP intervention (a total of 24 data points). Segmented regression models showed downward trends from baseline on antibiotics (coefficient = -0.64, P = 0.004), combined use of antibiotics (coefficient = -0.41, P < 0.001) and injections (coefficient = -0.5957, P = 0.001) after PRHCP intervention. The average expenditure of patients slightly increased monthly before the intervention (coefficient = 0.8643, P < 0.001); PRHCP intervention also led to a temporary increase in average expenditure of patients (coefficient = 2.20, P = 0.307) but slowed down the ascending trend (coefficient = -0.45, P = 0.033). The prescription rate of antibiotics and injections after intervention (about 50%) remained high. PRHCP showed positive effects on physicians' prescribing behaviour, considering the downward trends on the use of antibiotics and injections and average expenditure through the intervention. However, the effect was not immediately observed; a lag time existed before public reporting intervention worked. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Die Another Day, James Bond's smoking over six decades.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Tucker, Anne

2016-09-01

We aimed to examine smoking-related content in all 24 James Bond movies in the Eon Productions series from 1962 to 2015. There were favourable downward trends for any smoking by James Bond (p=0.015 for trend), and for tobacco-related spy-gadgetry (p=0.009). Around 20% of Bond's 60 sexual partners smoked in each decade, and most recently in 2012. There were regular mentions of smoking risks to health (starting from 1967) and product placement of branded packs was present in two movies. Overall, the persisting smoking content remains problematic from a public health perspective, especially given the popularity of this movie series. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The quality of our Nation's waters-Nutrients in the Nation's streams and groundwater, 1992-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dubrovsky, N.M.; Burow, K.R.; Clark, G.M.; Gronberg, J.M.; Hamilton, P.A.; Hitt, K.J.; Mueller, D.K.; Munn, M.D.; Nolan, B.T.; Puckett, L.J.; Rupert, M.G.; Short, T.M.; Spahr, N.E.; Sprague, L.A.; Wilber, W.G.

2010-01-01

National Findings and Their Implications Although the use of artificial fertilizer has supported increasing food production to meet the needs of a growing population, increases in nutrient loadings from agricultural and, to a lesser extent, urban sources have resulted in nutrient concentrations in many streams and parts of aquifers that exceed standards for protection of human health and (or) aquatic life, often by large margins. Do NAWQA findings substantiate national concerns for aquatic and human health? National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) findings indicate that nutrient concentrations in streams and groundwater in basins with significant agricultural or urban development are substantially greater than naturally occurring or ?background? levels. For example, median concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus in agricultural streams are about 6 times greater than background levels. Findings also indicate that concentrations in streams routinely were 2 to 10 times greater than regional nutrient criteria recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to protect aquatic life. Such large differences in magnitude suggest that significant reductions in sources of nutrients, as well as greater use of land management strategies to reduce the transport of nutrients to streams, are needed to meet recommended criteria for streams draining areas with significant agricultural and urban development. Nitrate concentrations above the Federal drinking-water standard-or Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL)-of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L, as nit-ogen) are relatively uncommon in samples from streams used for drinking water or from relatively deep aquifers; the MCL is exceeded, however, in more than 20 percent of shallow (less than 100 feet below the water table) domestic wells in agricultural areas. This finding raises concerns for human health in rural agricultural areas where shallow groundwater is used for domestic supply and may warn of future contamination of deeper groundwater pumped from public-supply wells. Are levels of nutrients in water increasing or decreasing? A decadal assessment of trends in concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus from about 1993 to 2003 shows minimal changes in those concentrations in the majority of studied streams across the Nation, and more upward than downward trends in concentrations at sites with changes. These findings underscore the need for reductions in nutrient inputs or management strategies that would reduce transport of nutrients to streams. Upward trends were evident among all land uses, including those only minimally affected by agricultural and (or) urban development, which suggests that additional protection of some of our Nation's most pristine streams warrants consideration. The median of nitrate concentrations in groundwater from 495 wells also increased significantly from 3.2 to 3.4 mg/L (6 percent) during about the same period, and the proportion of wells with concentrations of nitrate greater than the MCL increased from 16 to 21 percent. Nitrate concentrations in water in deep aquifers are likely to increase during the next decade as shallow groundwater with elevated concentrations moves downward. The potential for future contamination of the deep aquifers requires attention because these aquifers commonly are used for public water supply, and because restoration of groundwater is costly and difficult. Long-term and consistent monitoring of nutrients, improved accounting of nutrient sources, and improved tracking and modeling of climatic and landscape changes will be essential for distinguishing trends in nutrient concentrations, understanding the causes of those trends, and accurately tracking the effectiveness of strategies implemented to manage nutrients.

The quality of our Nation's waters-Nutrients in the Nation's streams and groundwater, 1992-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dubrovsky, Neil M.; Burow, Karen R.; Clark, Gregory M.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.; Hamilton, Pixie A.; Hitt, Kerie J.; Mueller, David K.; Munn, Mark D.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Puckett, Larry J.; Rupert, Michael G.; Short, Terry M.; Spahr, Norman E.; Sprague, Lori A.; Wilber, William G.

2010-01-01

National Findings and Their ImplicationsAlthough the use of artificial fertilizer has supported increasing food production to meet the needs of a growing population, increases in nutrient loadings from agricultural and, to a lesser extent, urban sources have resulted in nutrient concentrations in many streams and parts of aquifers that exceed standards for protection of human health and (or) aquatic life, often by large margins.Do NAWQA findings substantiate national concerns for aquatic and human health?National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) findings indicate that nutrient concentrations in streams and groundwater in basins with significant agricultural or urban development are substantially greater than naturally occurring or “background” levels. For example, median concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus in agricultural streams are about 6 times greater than background levels. Findings also indicate that concentrations in streams routinely were 2 to 10 times greater than regional nutrient criteria recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to protect aquatic life. Such large differences in magnitude suggest that significant reductions in sources of nutrients, as well as greater use of land management strategies to reduce the transport of nutrients to streams, are needed to meet recommended criteria for streams draining areas with significant agricultural and urban development.Nitrate concentrations above the Federal drinking-water standard—or Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL)—of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L, as nitrogen) are relatively uncommon in samples from streams used for drinking water or from relatively deep aquifers; the MCL is exceeded, however, in more than 20 percent of shallow (less than 100 feet below the water table) domestic wells in agricultural areas. This finding raises concerns for human health in rural agricultural areas where shallow groundwater is used for domestic supply and may warn of future contamination of deeper groundwater pumped from public‑supply wells.Are levels of nutrients in water increasing or decreasing?A decadal assessment of trends in concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus from about 1993 to 2003 shows minimal changes in those concentrations in the majority of studied streams across the Nation, and more upward than downward trends in concentrations at sites with changes. These findings underscore the need for reductions in nutrient inputs or management strategies that would reduce transport of nutrients to streams. Upward trends were evident among all land uses, including those only minimally affected by agricultural and (or) urban development, which suggests that additional protection of some of our Nation’s most pristine streams warrants consideration.The median of nitrate concentrations in groundwater from 495 wells also increased significantly from 3.2 to 3.4 mg/L (6 percent) during about the same period, and the proportion of wells with concentrations of nitrate greater than the MCL increased from 16 to 21 percent. Nitrate concentrations in water in deep aquifers are likely to increase during the next decade as shallow groundwater with elevated concentrations moves downward. The potential for future contamination of the deep aquifers requires attention because these aquifers commonly are used for public water supply, and because restoration of groundwater is costly and difficult.Long-term and consistent monitoring of nutrients, improved accounting of nutrient sources, and improved tracking and modeling of climatic and landscape changes will be essential for distinguishing trends in nutrient concentrations, understanding the causes of those trends, and accurately tracking the effectiveness of strategies implemented to manage nutrients.

Racial Inequality Trends and the Intergenerational Persistence of Income and Family Structure

PubMed Central

Bloome, Deirdre

2015-01-01

Racial disparity in family incomes remained remarkably stable over the past 40 years in the United States despite major legal and social reforms. Previous scholarship presents two primary explanations for persistent inequality through a period of progressive change. One highlights continuity: because socioeconomic status is transmitted from parents to children, disparities created through histories of discrimination and opportunity denial may dissipate slowly. The second highlights change: because family income results from joining individual earnings in family units, changing family compositions can offset individuals’ changing economic chances. I examine whether black-white family income inequality trends are better characterized by the persistence of existing disadvantage (continuity) or shifting forms of disadvantage (change). I combine cross-sectional and panel analysis using Current Population Survey, Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Census, and National Vital Statistics data. Results suggest that African Americans experience relatively extreme intergenerational continuity (low upward mobility) and discontinuity (high downward mobility); both helped maintain racial inequality. Yet, intergenerational discontinuities allow new forms of disadvantage to emerge. On net, racial inequality trends are better characterized by changing forms of disadvantage than by continuity. Economic trends were equalizing but demographic trends were disequalizing; as family structures shifted, family incomes did not fully reflect labor-market gains. PMID:26456973

Trends in pediatric liver transplant donors and deceased donor circumstance of death in the United States, 2002-2015.

PubMed

Yoeli, Dor; Goss, Matthew; Galván, Nhu Thao N; Desai, Moreshwar S; Miloh, Tamir A; Rana, Abbas

2018-05-01

While much of the discussion regarding expanding the donor pool for pediatric liver transplantation has surrounded the use of technical variant grafts, little attention has been directed toward changes in the deceased donor population. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in the circumstance of the death of deceased donors used for pediatric liver transplantation. All pediatric liver transplant recipients transplanted between 2002 and 2015 were identified in the UNOS database and were categorized based on the donor circumstance of death. There was no significant correlation between year of transplantation and number of pediatric liver transplants performed, pediatric donors, split livers, or living donors. There was a significant downward trend in donors from motor vehicle fatalities and an upward trend in suicide, non-MVA, and death due to natural causes. There was also an upward trend in drowning, one of the most common mechanisms of death among non-MVA in 2015. While the number of donors who died in MVA has fallen, the number of deceased donors who died from suicide, natural causes, and non-MVA, especially drowning, has increased, maintaining the overall number of pediatric deceased donor livers transplanted. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in Central Asia’s Water Tower: Past, Present and Future

PubMed Central

Chen, Yaning; Li, Weihong; Deng, Haijun; Fang, Gonghuan; Li, Zhi

2016-01-01

The Tienshan Mountains, with its status as “water tower”, is the main water source and ecological barrier in Central Asia. The rapid warming affected precipitation amounts and fraction as well as the original glacier/snowmelt water processes, thereby affecting the runoff and water storage. The ratio of snowfall to precipitation (S/P) experienced a downward trend, along with a shift from snow to rain. Spatially, the snow cover area in Middle Tienshan Mountains decreased significantly, while that in West Tienshan Mountains increased slightly. Approximately 97.52% of glaciers in the Tienshan Mountains showed a retreating trend, which was especially obvious in the North and East Tienshan Mountains. River runoff responds in a complex way to changes in climate and cryosphere. It appears that catchments with a higher fraction of glacierized area showed mainly increasing runoff trends, while river basins with less or no glacierization exhibited large variations in the observed runoff changes. The total water storage in the Tienshan Mountains also experienced a significant decreasing trend in Middle and East Tienshan Mountains, but a slight decreasing trend in West Tienshan Mountains, totally at an average rate of −3.72 mm/a. In future, water storage levels are expected to show deficits for the next half-century. PMID:27762285

Infant mortality trend in the city of Rio Branco, AC, 1999 to 2015

PubMed Central

Ramalho, Alanderson Alves; de Andrade, Andréia Moreira; Martins, Fernanda Andrade; Koifman, Rosalina Jorge

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Analyze the trend of infant mortality in Rio Branco, state of Acre, from 1999 to 2015. METHODS An ecological observational study of a time series, in which data from deaths from the Information System on Mortality and Births of the Information System on Live Births were used. The annual percentage change was estimated using the Joinpoint software. RESULTS The infant mortality rate decreased from 26.99 in 1999 to 14.50 in 2015 per 1,000 live births, with an annual percentage change of -4.37 (95%CI -5.4– -3.4). When stratified by age components, the neonatal period presented an annual percentage change of -4.73 (95%CI -5.7– -3.7), and the post-neonatal period was -3.7 (95%CI -5.4– -2.0). Avoidability, avoidable causes and poorly defined causes showed a downward trend throughout the period and causes not clearly preventable showed an upward trend until 2008. The group of causes that contributed most to the infant deaths during the period studied was perinatal diseases, followed by malformations, infectious and parasitic diseases, and respiratory diseases. CONCLUSIONS Despite the decreasing trend in infant mortality rates in the capital compared to developed countries, it is relatively high. PMID:29641657

Spleen magnetic resonance diffusion-weighted imaging for quantitative staging hepatic fibrosis in miniature pigs: An initial study.

PubMed

Chen, Xiao-Li; Chen, Tian-Wu; Zhang, Xiao-Ming; Li, Zhen-Lin; Li, Hang; Zeng, Nan-Lin; Tang, Hong-Jie; Pu, Yu; Chen, Nan; Yang, Qi; Li, Li; Xie, Xian-Yong; Hu, Jiani

2013-11-01

To determine whether spleen diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) parameters might classify liver fibrosis stage. Sixteen miniature pigs were prospectively used to model liver fibrosis, and underwent spleen DWI by using b = 300, 500 and 800 s/mm(2) on 0, 5th, 9th, 16th and 21st weekend after the beginning of modeling. Signal intensity ratio of spleen to paraspinous muscles (S/M), spleen exponential apparent diffusion coefficient (eADC) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) for each b-value were statistically analyzed. With increasing stages of fibrosis, S/M for all b-values showed a downward trend; and spleen eADC and ADC for b = 300 s/mm(2) showed downward and upward trends, respectively (all P < 0.05). The area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) of spleen DWI parameters was 0.777 or more by S/M for classifying each fibrosis stage, and 0.65 or more by eADC and 0.648 or more by ADC for classifying stage ≥3 or cirrhosis. Among the spleen DWI parameters, S/M for b = 300 s/mm(2) was the best parameter in classifying stage 1 or more, 2 or more and 3 or more with AUC of 0.875, 0.851 and 0.843, respectively; and spleen eADC for b = 300 s/mm(2) was best in classifying stage 4 with an AUC of 0.988. Spleen DWI may be used to stage liver fibrosis. © 2013 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Ground-water level data for North Carolina, 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coble, Ronald W.; Strickland, A.G.; Bailey, M. Carl

1989-01-01

Continuous and periodic measurements in 54 key wells and water-level measurements emplaced in Coastal Plain aquifers across North Carolina in 193 supplemental wells are presented in this report. Hydrographs of selected wells show changes in ground-water storage in the State. The water table in the shallow aquifers was higher throughout most of the State in 1987 than in 1986, indicating that rain had recharged these aquifers sufficiently to replenish the deficit in ground water storage that accumulated in the western and central parts of the State during 1986. Water levels in the heavily pumped Coastal Plain aquifers show a general downward trend for the year, indicating ground water is being withdrawn from aquifer storage. Record low water levels were measured in 4 of 13 wells in the Castle Hayne aquifer; the greatest decline measured during 1987 was 0.3 ft. Water levels in wells in the Peedee, Black Creek, upper Cape Fear, and lower Cape Fear aquifers generally show downward trends. Record low water levels were measured in 4 of 8 wells in the Peedee aquifer; the maximum decline measured during 1987 was 1.5 ft. All wells in the Black Creek, upper Cape Fear, and lower Cape Fear aquifers had record low water levels for 1987, with maximum measured declines in 1987 of 8.6, 3.1, and 3.1 ft., respectively. Record high water levels were measured in two wells, one each in the Castle Hayne and Peedee aquifers. Potentiometric surface maps show the effects of major centers of pumping for the Castle Hayne, Black Creek, and lower Cape Fear aquifers of the Coastal Plain.

Seasonal variability of the parameters of the Ball-Berry model of stomatal conductance in maize (Zea mays L.) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) under well-watered and water-stressed conditions.

PubMed

Miner, Grace L; Bauerle, William L

2017-09-01

The Ball-Berry (BB) model of stomatal conductance (g s ) is frequently coupled with a model of assimilation to estimate water and carbon exchanges in plant canopies. The empirical slope (m) and 'residual' g s (g 0 ) parameters of the BB model influence transpiration estimates, but the time-intensive nature of measurement limits species-specific data on seasonal and stress responses. We measured m and g 0 seasonally and under different water availability for maize and sunflower. The statistical method used to estimate parameters impacted values nominally when inter-plant variability was low, but had substantial impact with larger inter-plant variability. Values for maize (m = 4.53 ± 0.65; g 0  = 0.017 ± 0.016 mol m -2 s -1 ) were 40% higher than other published values. In maize, we found no seasonal changes in m or g 0 , supporting the use of constant seasonal values, but water stress reduced both parameters. In sunflower, inter-plant variability of m and g 0 was large (m = 8.84 ± 3.77; g 0  = 0.354 ± 0.226 mol m -2 s -1 ), presenting a challenge to clear interpretation of seasonal and water stress responses - m values were stable seasonally, even as g 0 values trended downward, and m values trended downward with water stress while g 0 values declined substantially. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating regional trends in ground-water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin ground water management area, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2005-01-01

Trends in nitrate concentrations in water from 474 wells in 17 subregions in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area (GWMA) in three counties in eastern Washington were evaluated using a variety of statistical techniques, including the Friedman test and the Kendall test. The Kendall test was modified from its typical 'seasonal' version into a 'regional' version by using well locations in place of seasons. No statistically significant trends in nitrate concentrations were identified in samples from wells in the GWMA, the three counties, or the 17 subregions from 1998 to 2002 when all data were included in the analysis. For wells in which nitrate concentrations were greater than 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L), however, a significant downward trend of -0.4 mg/L per year was observed between 1998 and 2002 for the GWMA as a whole, as well as for Adams County (-0.35 mg/L per year) and for Franklin County (-0.46 mg/L per year). Trend analysis for a smaller but longer-term 51-well dataset in Franklin County found a statistically significant upward trend in nitrate concentrations of 0.1 mg/L per year between 1986 and 2003. The largest increase of nitrate concentrations occurred between 1986 and 1991. No statistically significant differences were observed in this dataset between 1998 and 2003 indicating that the increase in nitrate concentrations has leveled off.

Trends in evaporation of a large subtropical lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Cheng; Wang, Yongwei; Wang, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Piao, Meihua; Xiao, Wei; Lee, Xuhui

2017-07-01

How rising temperature and changing solar radiation affect evaporation of natural water bodies remains poor understood. In this study, evaporation from Lake Taihu, a large (area 2400 km2) freshwater lake in the Yangtze River Delta, China, was simulated by the CLM4-LISSS offline lake model and estimated with pan evaporation data. Both methods were calibrated against lake evaporation measured directly with eddy covariance in 2012. Results show a significant increasing trend of annual lake evaporation from 1979 to 2013, at a rate of 29.6 mm decade-1 according to the lake model and 25.4 mm decade-1 according to the pan method. The mean annual evaporation during this period shows good agreement between these two methods (977 mm according to the model and 1007 mm according to the pan method). A stepwise linear regression reveals that downward shortwave radiation was the most significant contributor to the modeled evaporation trend, while air temperature was the most significant contributor to the pan evaporation trend. Wind speed had little impact on the modeled lake evaporation but had a negative contribution to the pan evaporation trend offsetting some of the temperature effect. Reference evaporation was not a good proxy for the lake evaporation because it was on average 20.6 % too high and its increasing trend was too large (56.5 mm decade-1).

Trends in abuse and misuse of prescription opioids among older adults.

PubMed

West, Nancy A; Severtson, Stevan G; Green, Jody L; Dart, Richard C

2015-04-01

Dramatic increases in the prescriptive use of opioid analgesics during the past two decades have been paralleled by alarming increases in rates of the abuse and intentional misuse of these drugs. We examined recent trends in the abuse and misuse and associated fatal outcomes among older adults (60+ years) and compared these to trends among younger adults (20-59 years). Trend analysis using linear regression models was used to analyze 184,136 cases and 1149 deaths associated with abuse and misuse of the prescription opioids oxycodone, fentanyl, hydrocodone, morphine, oxymorphone, hydromorphone, methadone, buprenorphine, tramadol, and tapentadol that were reported to participating U.S. Poison Centers of the Researched Abuse, Diversion and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS(®)) System between 2006-Q1 and 2013-Q4. Rates of abuse and misuse of prescription opioids were lower for older adults than for younger adults; however, mortality rates among the older ages followed an increasing linear trend (P < 0.0001) and surpassed rates for younger adults in 2012 and 2013. In contrast, mortality rates among younger adults rose and fell during the period, with recent rates trending downward (P = 0.0003 for quadratic trend). Sub-analysis revealed an increasing linear trend among older adults specifically for suicidal intent (P < 0.0001), whereas these rates increased and then decreased among younger adults (P < 0.0001 for quadratic trend). Recent linear increases in rates of death and use of prescription opioids with suicidal intent among older adults have important implications as the U.S. undergoes a rapid expansion of its elderly population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Salivary cortisol values in HIV-positive people.

PubMed

Barroso, Julie; Burrage, Joe; Carlson, John; Carlson, Barbara Waag

2006-01-01

Fatigue is one of the most prevalent and troubling symptoms suffered by people with HIV infection. As part of a pilot study to examine physiological and psychosocial correlates of fatigue, the authors report results from a sample of 40 HIV-positive men and women who collected three saliva samples each over the course of a day. Few in the sample exhibited the normal salivary cortisol slope (a peak in the morning and falling throughout the day). There were four groups (N = 36) based on salivary cortisol plots: a normal downward trend (n = 7), an afternoon peak (n = 15), an afternoon drop (n = 9), and an upward trend (n = 5). The data in each of these groups were then analyzed on the key variables of sex, age, depression, state/trait anxiety, fatigue severity, CD4 count, and HIV viral load; the group that had an upward trend in cortisol values had a tendency toward more depression, more state and trait anxiety, higher fatigue severity, and higher HIV viral load. However, they also trended toward higher CD4 counts than the other three groups. The need to compare additional variables over a period of time is discussed.

Trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma, 1951–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Daniel M.; Krieger, Joshua D.; Merriman, Katherine R.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) conducted a statistical analysis of trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma for the period 1951–2011. The Mann-Kendall test was used to test for trends in annual and seasonal precipitation, annual and seasonal streamflows of 42 continuous-record USGS streamflow-gaging stations, annual pool elevations and releases from 16 USACE reservoirs, and annual releases from 11 dams on the Arkansas River. A statistically significant (p≤0.10) upward trend was observed in annual precipitation for the State, with a Sen slope of approximately 0.10 inch per year. Autumn and winter were the only seasons that had statistically significant trends in precipitation. Five of six physiographic sections and six of seven 4-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC) regions in Arkansas had statistically significant upward trends in autumn precipitation, with Sen slopes of approximately 0.06 to 0.10 inch per year. Sixteen sites had statistically significant upward trends in the annual mean daily streamflow and were located on streams that drained regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation. Expected annual rates of change corresponding to statistically significant trends in annual mean daily streamflows, which ranged from 0.32 to 0.88 percent, were greater than those corresponding to regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation, which ranged from 0.19 to 0.28 percent, suggesting that the observed trends in regional annual precipitation do not fully account for the observed trends in annual mean daily streamflows. Trends in annual maximum daily streamflows were similar to trends in the annual mean daily streamflows but were only statistically significant at seven sites. There were more statistically significant trends (28 of 42 sites) in the annual minimum daily streamflows than in the annual means or maximums. Statistically significant trends in the annual minimum daily streamflows were upward at 18 sites and downward at 10 sites. Despite autumn being the only season that had statistically significant upward trends in seasonal precipitation, statistically significant upward trends in seasonal mean streamflows occurred in every season but spring. Trends in the annual mean, maximum, and minimum daily pool elevations of USACE reservoirs were consistent between metrics for reservoirs in the White, Arkansas, and Ouachita River watersheds, while trends varied between metrics at DeQueen Lake, Millwood Lake, and Lake Chicot. Most of the statistically significant trends in pool elevation metrics were upward and gradual—Sen slopes were less than 0.37 foot per year—and were likely the result of changes in reservoir regulation plans. Trends in the annual mean and maximum daily releases from USACE reservoirs were generally upward in all HUC regions. There were few statistically significant trends in the annual mean daily releases because the reservoirs are operated to maintain a regulation stage at a downstream site according to guidelines set forth in the regulation plans of the reservoirs. The annual number of low-flow days was both increasing and decreasing for reservoirs in northern Arkansas and southern Missouri and generally increasing for reservoirs in southern Arkansas.

Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure in adults aged 18 and over in the United States, 2001-2008.

PubMed

Wright, Jacqueline D; Hughes, Jeffery P; Ostchega, Yechiam; Yoon, Sung Sug; Nwankwo, Tatiana

2011-03-25

This report presents estimates for the period 2001-2008 of means and selected percentiles of systolic and diastolic blood pressure by sex, race or ethnicity, age, and hypertension status in adults aged 18 and over. Demographic characteristics were collected during a personal interview, and blood pressures were measured during a physician examination. All estimates were calculated using the mean of up to three measurements. The final analytic sample consisted of 19,921 adults aged 18 and over with complete data. Examined sample weights and sample design variables were used to calculate nationally representative estimates and standard error estimates that account for the complex design, using SAS and SUDAAN statistical software. Mean systolic blood pressure was 122 mm Hg for all adults aged 18 and over; it was 116 mm Hg for normotensive adults, 130 mm Hg for treated hypertensive adults, and 146 mm Hg for untreated hypertensive adults. Mean diastolic blood pressure was 71 mm Hg for all adults 18 and over; it was 69 mm Hg for normotensive adults, 75 mm Hg for treated hypertensive adults, and 85 mm Hg for untreated hypertensive adults. There was a trend of increasing systolic blood pressure with increasing age. A more curvilinear trend was seen in diastolic blood pressure, with increasing then decreasing means with age in both men and women. Men had higher mean systolic and diastolic pressures than women. There were some differences in mean blood pressure by race or ethnicity, with non-Hispanic black adults having higher mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures than non-Hispanic white and Mexican-American adults, but these differences were not consistent after stratification by hypertension status and sex. These estimates of the distribution of blood pressure may be useful for policy makers who are considering ways to achieve a downward shift in the population distribution of blood pressure with the goal of reducing morbidity and mortality related to hypertension.

A Milestone-Based Evaluation System-The Cure for Grade Inflation?

PubMed

Kuo, Lindsay E; Hoffman, Rebecca L; Morris, Jon B; Williams, Noel N; Malachesky, Mark; Huth, Laura E; Kelz, Rachel R

2015-01-01

Controversy exists over the optimal use of the Milestones in the process of resident evaluation and feedback. We sought to evaluate the performance of a Milestones-based feedback system in comparison to a traditional model. The traditional evaluation system (TES) consisted of a generic 16-item survey using a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 1 to 5, and a free-text comments section. The Milestones-based evaluation system (MBES) was launched in July 2014, ranging from 0 to 4. Individual milestones were mapped to rotations based on resident educational goals by postgraduate year (PGY). The MBES consisted of a survey with a maximum of 7 items, followed by a free-text comment section. Within each evaluation system, an overall composite score was calculated for each categorical general surgical resident. To scale the 2 systems for comparison, TES scores were adjusted downward by 1 point. Descriptive statistics were performed. Univariate analysis was performed with the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. A test for trend across PGY was used for the MBES only. In the traditional system, the median score was 3.66 (range: 3.2-4.0). There was no meaningful difference in the median score by PGY. In the new system, the median score was 2.69 (range: 1.5-3.7, p < 0.01). The median score differed across PGY and increased by PGY of training (p < 0.01). There was an increase in differences between median scores by PGY. On using the milestones to facilitate faculty evaluation of resident knowledge and skill, there was a trend in increasing score by PGY of training. In the MBES, scores could be used to better discriminate resident skill and knowledge levels and resulted in improved differentiation in scoring by PGY. The use of the milestones as a basis for evaluation enabled the program to provide more meaningful feedback to residents and represents an improvement in surgical education. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plasma Creatine Kinetics After Ingestion of Microencapsulated Creatine Monohydrate with Enhanced Stability in Aqueous Solutions.

PubMed

Hone, Michelle; Kent, Robert M; Scotto di Palumbo, Alessandro; Bleiel, Sinead B; De Vito, Giuseppe; Egan, Brendan

2017-07-04

Creatine monohydrate represents one of the largest sports supplement markets. Enhancing creatine (CRE) stability in aqueous solutions, such as with microencapsulation, represents innovation potential. Ten physically active male volunteers were randomly assigned in a double-blind design to either placebo (PLA) (3-g maltodextrin; n = 5) or microencapsulated CRE (3-g creatine monohydrate; n = 5) conditions. Experimental conditions involved ingestion of the samples in a 70-mL ready-to-drink format. CRE was delivered in a novel microencapsulation matrix material consisting entirely of hydrolyzed milk protein. Three hours after ingestion, plasma creatine concentrations were unchanged during PLA, and averaged ∼45 μM. During CRE, plasma creatine concentration peaked after 30 min at 101.6 ± 14.9 μM (p < 0.05), representing a 2.3-fold increase over PLA. Thereafter, plasma creatine concentration gradually trended downwards but remained significantly elevated (∼50% above resting levels) 3 hr after ingestion. These results demonstrate that the microencapsulated form of creatine monohydrate reported herein remains bioavailable when delivered in aqueous conditions, and has potential utility in ready-to-drink formulations for creatine supplementation.

Implementation of a Diabetes Educator Care Model to Reduce Paediatric Admission for Diabetic Ketoacidosis.

PubMed

Deeb, Asma; Yousef, Hana; Abdelrahman, Layla; Tomy, Mary; Suliman, Shaker; Attia, Salima; Al Suwaidi, Hana

2016-01-01

Introduction. Diabetic Ketoacidosis (DKA) is a serious complication that can be life-threatening. Management of DKA needs admission in a specialized center and imposes major constraints on hospital resources. Aim. We plan to study the impact of adapting a diabetes-educator care model on reducing the frequency of hospital admission of children and adolescents presenting with DKA. Method. We have proposed a model of care led by diabetes educators for children and adolescents with diabetes. The team consisted of highly trained nurses. The model effectiveness is measured by comparing the rate of hospital admission for DKA over 4-year period to the baseline year prior to implementing the model. Results. There were 158 admissions for DKA over a 5-year period. Number of patients followed up in the outpatient diabetes clinics increased from 37 to 331 patients at the start and the end of the study years. Admission rate showed a downward trend over the five-year period. Percentage of admission for DKA is reduced from 210% to 1.8% (P 0.001). Conclusion. Diabetes educator care model is an effective and a sustainable measure to reduce hospital admission for DKA in children and adolescents.

Initial Movement and Continuity in Vibrato among High School and University String Players

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geringer, John M.; Allen, Michael L.; MacLeod, Rebecca B.

2005-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to investigate aspects of vibrato performance among high school and university string players. The main questions were to determine whether students consistently initiate vibrato in an upward or downward direction and whether players vibrate continuously when performing slurs. Forty high school and university…

Same Constructs, Different Results: Examining the Consistency of Two Behavior-Rating Scales with Referred Preschoolers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Myers, Carl L.; Bour, Jennifer L.; Sidebottom, Kristina J.; Murphy, Sara B.; Hakman, Melissa

2010-01-01

Broad-band or multidimensional behavior-rating scales are common tools for evaluating children. Two popular behavior-rating scales, the Behavior Assessment System for Children, Second Edition (BASC-2; Reynolds & Kamphaus, 2004) and the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL; Achenbach & Rescorla, 2000), have undergone downward extensions so that…

INGOT MOLD

DOEpatents

Mangold, A.J. Jr.; MaHaffey, J.W.; Reese, S.L.

1958-04-29

An improved ingot-mold assembly is described, consisting of a body having a cavity and a recess extending through to the bottom of the body from the cavity, and the bottom of the cavity having an internal shoulder extending downward and a plug having an external shoulder. The plug extends above the shoulders and below the bottom of the body.

Effects of afforestation on runoff and sediment load in an upland Mediterranean catchment.

PubMed

Buendia, C; Bussi, G; Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Sabater, S; Palau, A; Batalla, R J

2016-01-01

This paper assesses annual and seasonal trends in runoff and sediment load resulting from climate variability and afforestation in an upland Mediterranean basin, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). We implemented a hydrological and sediment transport distributed model (TETIS) with a daily time-step, using continuous discharge and sediment transport data collected at a monitoring station during the period 2009-2013. Once calibrated and validated, the model was used to simulate the hydrosedimentary response of the basin for the period 1971-2014 using historical climate and land use data. Simulated series were further used to (i) detect sediment transport and hydrologic trends at different temporal scales (annual, seasonal); (ii) assess changes in the contribution of extreme events (i.e. low and high flows) and (ii) assess the relative effect of forest expansion and climate variability on trends observed by applying a scenario of constant land use. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test indicated upward trends for temperature and decreasing trends (although non-significant) for precipitation. Downward trends occurred for annual runoff, and less significantly for sediment yield. Reductions in runoff were less intense when afforestation was not considered in the model, while trends in sediment yield were reversed. Results also indicated that an increase in the river's torrential behaviour may have occurred throughout the studied period, with low and high flow events gaining importance with respect to the annual contribution, although its magnitude was reduced over time. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measurement of ocular aberrations in downward gaze using a modified clinical aberrometer

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Atanu; Collins, Michael J; Read, Scott A; Davis, Brett A; Iskander, D. Robert

2011-01-01

Changes in corneal optics have been measured after downward gaze. However, ocular aberrations during downward gaze have not been previously measured. A commercial Shack-Hartmann aberrometer (COAS-HD) was modified by adding a relay lens system and a rotatable beam splitter to allow on-axis aberration measurements in primary gaze and downward gaze with binocular fixation. Measurements with the modified aberrometer (COAS-HD relay system) in primary and downward gaze were validated against a conventional aberrometer. In human eyes, there were significant changes (p<0.05) in defocus C(2,0), primary astigmatism C(2,2) and vertical coma C(3,−1) in downward gaze (25 degrees) compared to primary gaze, indicating the potential influence of biomechanical forces on the optics of the eye in downward gaze. To demonstrate a further clinical application of this modified aberrometer, we measured ocular aberrations when wearing a progressive addition lens (PAL) in primary gaze (0 degree), 15 degrees downward gaze and 25 degrees downward gaze. PMID:21412451

Summers with low Arctic sea ice linked to persistence of spring atmospheric circulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapsch, Marie-Luise; Skific, Natasa; Graversen, Rune G.; Tjernström, Michael; Francis, Jennifer A.

2018-05-01

The declining trend of Arctic September sea ice constitutes a significant change in the Arctic climate system. Large year-to-year variations are superimposed on this sea-ice trend, with the largest variability observed in the eastern Arctic Ocean. Knowledge of the processes important for this variability may lead to an improved understanding of seasonal and long-term changes. Previous studies suggest that transport of heat and moisture into the Arctic during spring enhances downward surface longwave radiation, thereby controlling the annual melt onset, setting the stage for the September ice minimum. In agreement with these studies, we find that years with a low September sea-ice concentration (SIC) are characterized by more persistent periods in spring with enhanced energy flux to the surface in forms of net longwave radiation plus turbulent fluxes, compared to years with a high SIC. Two main atmospheric circulation patterns related to these episodes are identified: one resembles the so-called Arctic dipole anomaly that promotes transport of heat and moisture from the North Pacific, whereas the other is characterized by negative geopotential height anomalies over the Arctic, favoring cyclonic flow from Siberia and the Kara Sea into the eastern Arctic Ocean. However, differences between years with low and high September SIC appear not to be due to different spring circulation patterns; instead it is the persistence and intensity of processes associated with these patterns that distinguish the two groups of anomalous years: Years with low September SIC feature episodes that are consistently stronger and more persistent than years with high SIC.

Mass extinctions and missing matter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, R. B.

1984-01-01

The possible influence of 'invisible matter' on the solar system's comet halo, and therefore on quasi-periodic cometary bombardment of the earth and consequent mass extinctions, is briefly addressed. Invisible matter consisting of small or cold interstellar molecular clouds could significantly modulate the comet background flux, while invisible matter consisting of a large population of old, dead stars with a relatively small galactic concentration probably could not. It is also shown that the downward force exerted by the Galaxy will perturb the halo, but will not produce any periodicity.

Monitoring Progress in Population Health: Trends in Premature Death Rates

PubMed Central

Catlin, Bridget B.; Kindig, David A.

2013-01-01

Introduction Trends in population health outcomes can be monitored to evaluate the performance of population health systems at the national, state, and local levels. The objective of this study was to compare and contrast 4 measures for assessing progress in population health improvement by using age-adjusted premature death rates as a summary measure of the overall health outcomes in the United States and in all 50 states. Methods To evaluate the performance of statewide population health systems during the past 20 years, we used 4 measures of age-adjusted premature (<75 years of age) death rates: current rates (2009), baseline trends (1990s), follow-up trends (2000s), and changes in trends from baseline to the follow-up periods (ie, “bending the curve”). Results Current premature death rates varied by approximately twofold, with the lowest rate in Minnesota (268 deaths per 100,000) and the highest rate in Mississippi (482 deaths per 100,000). Rates improved the most in New York during the baseline period (−3.05% per year) and in New Jersey during the follow-up period (−2.87% per year), whereas Oklahoma ranked last in trends during both periods (−0.30%/y, baseline; +0.18%/y, follow-up). Trends improved the most in Connecticut, bending the curve downward by −1.03%; trends worsened the most in New Mexico, bending the curve upward by 1.21%. Discussion Current premature death rates, recent trends, and changes in trends vary by state in the United States. Policy makers can use these measures to evaluate the long-term population health impact of broad health care, behavioral, social, and economic investments in population health. PMID:24370109

Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iles, Carley; Hegerl, Gabriele

2017-11-01

Global temperatures have undergone periods of enhanced warming and pauses over the last century, with greater variations at local scales due to internal variability of the climate system. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in decadal temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere for periods with large decadal NAO trends. Using a regression based technique we find a best estimate that trends in the NAO more than halved (reduced by 57%, 5%-95%: 47%-63%) the winter warming over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (NH; 30N-90N) from 1920-1971 and account for 45% (±14%) of the warming there from 1963-1995, with larger impacts on regional scales. Over the period leading into the so-called warming hiatus, 1989-2013, the NAO reduced NH winter warming to around one quarter (24%; 19%-31%) of what it would have been, and caused large negative regional trends, for example, in Northern Eurasia. Warming is more spatially uniform across the Northern Hemisphere after removing the NAO influence in winter, and agreement with multi-model mean simulated trends improves. The impact of the summer NAO is much weaker, but still discernible over Europe, North America and Greenland, with the downward trend in the summer NAO from 1988-2012 reducing warming by about a third in Northern Europe and a half in North America. A composite analysis using CMIP5 control runs suggests that the ocean response to prolonged NAO trends may increase the influence of decadal NAO trends compared to estimates based on interannual regressions, particularly in the Arctic. Results imply that the long-term NAO trends over the 20th century alternately masked or enhanced anthropogenic warming, and will continue to temporarily offset or enhance its effects in the future.

Random-Walk Type Model with Fat Tails for Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matuttis, Hans-Geors

Starting from the random-walk model, practices of financial markets are included into the random-walk so that fat tail distributions like those in the high frequency data of the SP500 index are reproduced, though the individual mechanisms are modeled by normally distributed data. The incorporation of local correlation narrows the distribution for "frequent" events, whereas global correlations due to technical analysis leads to fat tails. Delay of market transactions in the trading process shifts the fat tail probabilities downwards. Such an inclusion of reactions to market fluctuations leads to mini-trends which are distributed with unit variance.

A moving target: financing Medicare for the future.

PubMed

Moon, M; Segal, M; Weiss, R

Since 1997, there has been a steady downward trend in projected Medicare spending as a share of the gross domestic product (GDP), substantially improving the long-run outlook for Medicare. But even with improvements in outlook, the required share of GDP will rise by more than 70%, and the question remains as to who will pay for Medicare in the future. This report examines a limited set of tax options and a flat beneficiary premium to illustrate the size of contributions necessary to achieve several different goals, and to explore the difference that multiple years of projections can make on these requirements.

Measurements of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

The solar irradiance is the primary natural energy input into Earth's atmosphere and climate system. Understanding the long-term variations of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) over time scales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for most Sun-climate research topics. There are satellite measurements of the SSI since the 1970s that contribute to understanding the solar cycle variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24. A limiting factor for the accuracy of these results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, for which there are fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. A summary of these satellite SSI measurements, which are primarily in the ultraviolet and only recently in the visible and near infrared, will be presented. Examining SSI trends using a new analysis technique is helping to identify some uncorrected instrumental trends, which once applied to the SSI trends has the potential to provide more accurate solar cycle variability results. This new technique examines the SSI trends at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in a SSI record, and one of the most common components of these derived long-term trends is a downward trend that we attribute to being most likely from uncorrected instrument degradation. Examples of this analysis will be presented for some of the satellite SSI measurements to demonstrate this new technique and how it has potential to improve the understanding of solar cycle variability and to clarify the uncertainties of the trends.

Elderly suicide trends in the context of transforming China, 1987–2014

PubMed Central

Zhong, Bao-Liang; Chiu, Helen F. K.; Conwell, Yeates

2016-01-01

In the context of rapid ageing, understanding the time-trend of elderly suicide (ES) could inform China’s efforts on suicide prevention. We examined time-trends in Chinese ES rates (ESRs) from 1987 to 2014, a period of profound social changes. Suicide rates by residence (rural/urban), gender, and 5-year age-group (65+) in 1987–2014 were provided by the Chinese Ministry of Health. Time-trends were analyzed with joinpoint analysis. The time-trend of national ESRs was downward (average annual percent change [AAPC] = −3.7, P < 0.001): 76.6/100000 in 1987 and 30.2/100000 in 2014. However, the time-trend of corresponding percentages of ESs among the total suicides was monotonically increasing (AAPC = 3.4, P < 0.001): 16.9% in 1987 to 41.2% in 2014. The time-trends in ESRs of both rural and urban men and women were decreasing, but only the rural trends were significant (P < 0.001). Rural-urban and male-female differences in ESRs were decreasing over time (slope = −4.2 and −3.0, P ≤ 0.006), but the rural-urban and male-female ESR differences in 2014 remained large (16.3/100000 and 9.8/100000, P < 0.001). While national ESRs decreased significantly during the past three decades, the current ESR remains high in China. Further, the age-pattern of Chinese suicide is transitioning to elderly predominance. ES, particularly rural ES, should be a public health priority in China. PMID:27886219

Mathematical Formulation of the Remote Electric and Magnetic Emissions of the Lightning Dart Leader and Return Stroke

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemann, Edward M. B.

Lightning detection and geolocation networks have found widespread use by the utility, air traffic control and forestry industries as a means of locating strikes and predicting imminent recurrence. Accurate lightning geolocation requires detecting VLF radio emissions at multiple sites using a distributed sensor network with typical baselines exceeding 150 km, along with precision time of arrival estimation to triangulate the origin of a strike. The trend has been towards increasing network accuracy without increasing sensor density by incorporating precision GPS synchronized clocks and faster front-end signal processing. Because lightning radio waveforms evolve as they propagate over a finitely conducting earth, and that measurements for a given strike may have disparate propagation path lengths, accurate models are required to determine waveform fiducials for precise strike location. The transition between the leader phase and return stroke phase may offer such a fiducial and warrants quantitative modeling to improve strike location accuracy. The VLF spectrum of the ubiquitous downward negative lightning strike is able to be modeled by the transfer of several Coulombs of negative charge from cloud to ground in a two-step process. The lightning stepped leader ionizes a plasma channel downward from the cloud at a velocity of approximately 0.05c, leaving a column of charge in its path. Upon connection with a streamer, the subsequent return stroke initiates at or near ground level and travels upward at an average but variable velocity of 0.3c. The return stroke neutralizes any negative charge along its path. Subsequent dart leader and return strokes often travel smoothly down the heated channel left by a preceding stroke, lacking the halting motion of the preceding initial stepped leader and initial return stroke. Existing lightning models often neglect the leader current and rely on approximations when solving for the return stroke. In this thesis, I present an analytic solution to Maxwell's Equations for the lightning leader followed by a novel return stroke model. I model the leader as a downward propagating boxcar function of uniform charge density and constant velocity, and the subsequent return stroke is modeled as an upward propagating boxcar with a time dependent velocity. Charge conservation is applied to ensure self-consistency of the driving current and charge sources, and physical observations are used to support model development. The resulting transient electric and magnetic fields are presented at various distances and delay times and compared with measured waveforms and previously published models.

Fatal falls in the US construction industry, 1990 to 1999.

PubMed

Derr, J; Forst, L; Chen, H Y; Conroy, L

2001-10-01

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration's (OSHA's) Integrated Management Information System (IMIS) database allows for the detailed analysis of risk factors surrounding fatal occupational events. This study used IMIS data to (1) perform a risk factor analysis of fatal construction falls, and (2) assess the impact of the February 1995 29 CFR Part 1926 Subpart M OSHA fall protection regulations for construction by calculating trends in fatal fall rates. In addition, IMIS data on fatal construction falls were compared with data from other occupational fatality surveillance systems. For falls in construction, the study identified several demographic factors that may indicate increased risk. A statistically significant downward trend in fatal falls was evident in all construction and within several construction categories during the decade. Although the study failed to show a statistically significant intervention effect from the new OSHA regulations, it may have lacked the power to do so.

Principal regression analysis and the index leverage effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reigneron, Pierre-Alain; Allez, Romain; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2011-09-01

We revisit the index leverage effect, that can be decomposed into a volatility effect and a correlation effect. We investigate the latter using a matrix regression analysis, that we call ‘Principal Regression Analysis' (PRA) and for which we provide some analytical (using Random Matrix Theory) and numerical benchmarks. We find that downward index trends increase the average correlation between stocks (as measured by the most negative eigenvalue of the conditional correlation matrix), and makes the market mode more uniform. Upward trends, on the other hand, also increase the average correlation between stocks but rotates the corresponding market mode away from uniformity. There are two time scales associated to these effects, a short one on the order of a month (20 trading days), and a longer time scale on the order of a year. We also find indications of a leverage effect for sectorial correlations as well, which reveals itself in the second and third mode of the PRA.

Injuries and illnesses from wood framing in residential construction, Washington State, 1993-1999.

PubMed

Shah, Syed Mahboob Ali; Bonauto, David; Silverstein, Barbara; Foley, Michael; Kalat, John

2003-11-01

The construction industry is associated with high rates of work-related injury. We used workers compensation data to describe the injuries and illnesses, claim rates, and claim costs associated with wood framing activities in construction. From 1993 to 1999, there were 33,021 accepted state fund workers compensation claims with direct costs of over $197 million. The average annual claim rate was 45 per 100 full-time equivalent. Statistically significant downward trends were noted in claim rates for all injuries and illnesses, compensable time loss claims, eye and fall injuries. However, these trends were not statistically significantly different from those observed in all other construction risk classes combined. The information in this report can be used to guide prevention efforts and to evaluate the effectiveness of Washington state initiatives to reduce injury and illness rates in wood frame construction.

Effects of employer-sponsored health insurance costs on Social Security taxable wages.

PubMed

Burtless, Gary; Milusheva, Sveta

2013-01-01

The increasing cost of employer contributions for employee health insurance reduces the share of compensation subject to the Social Security payroll tax. Rising insurance contributions can also have a more subtle effect on the Social Security tax base because they influence the distribution of money wages above and below the taxable maximum amount. This article uses the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to analyze trends in employer health insurance contributions and the distribution of those costs up and down the wage distribution. Our analysis shows that employer health insurance contributions increased faster than overall compensation during 1996-2008, but such contributions grew only slightly faster among workers earning less than the taxable maximum than they did among those earning more. Because employer health insurance contributions represent a much higher percentage of compensation below the taxable maximum, health insurance cost trends exerted a disproportionate downward pressure on money wages below the taxable maximum.

Evolution of educational inequalities in site-specific cancer mortality among Belgian men between the 1990s and 2000s using a "fundamental cause" perspective.

PubMed

Vanthomme, Katrien; Vandenheede, Hadewijch; Hagedoorn, Paulien; Gadeyne, Sylvie

2017-07-05

According to the "fundamental cause" theory, emerging knowledge on health-enhancing behaviours and technologies results in health disparities. This study aims to assess (trends in) educational inequalities in site-specific cancer mortality in Belgian men in the 1990s and the 2000s using this framework. Data were derived from record linkage between the Belgian censuses of 1991 and 2001 and register data on mortality. The study population comprised all Belgian men aged 50-79 years during follow-up. Both absolute and relative inequality measures have been calculated. Despite an overall downward trend in cancer mortality, educational differences are observed for the majority of cancer sites in the 2000s. Generally, inequalities are largest for mortality from preventable cancers. Trends over time in inequalities are rather stable compared with the 1990s. Educational differences in site-specific cancer mortality persist in the 2000s in Belgium, mainly for cancers related to behavioural change and medical interventions. Policy efforts focussing on behavioural change and healthcare utilization remain crucial in order to tackle these increasing inequalities.

Trends in US malpractice payments in dentistry compared to other health professions - dentistry payments increase, others fall.

PubMed

Nalliah, R P

2017-01-13

Background Little is known about trends in the number of malpractice payments made against dentists and other health professionals. Knowledge of these trends will inform the work of our professional organisations.Methods The National Practitioner Data Bank (NPDB) in the United States was utilised. Data about malpractice payments against dentists, hygienists, nurses, optometrists, pharmacists, physicians (DO and MD), physicians' assistants, podiatrists, psychologists, therapists and counsellors during 2004-14 were studied. Variables include type of healthcare provider, year malpractice payment was made and range of payment amount.Results In 2004 there were 17,532 malpractice payments against the studied health professions. In 2014 there were 11,650. In 2004, the number of malpractice payments against dentists represented 10.3% of all payments and in 2014 it represented 13.4%. Number of malpractice payments against dentists in 2012-2014 increased from 1,388 to 1,555.Conclusions There is an upward pressure on the number of dental malpractice payments over the last 3 years. Concurrently, there is a downward pressure on the number of combined non-dentist healthcare professional malpractice payments.

The benefit of seat belt legislation in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

McCarthy, M

1989-09-01

Legislation for compulsory wearing of seat belts by car drivers and front seat passengers has been acclaimed as a major public health advance. Reports from other countries, and two recent evaluative studies in the United Kingdom, have suggested that legislation reduces both deaths and injuries. To assess the effect of the UK law 5 years after its implementation, trends in routine data for 1976-1987 have been reviewed. There were two sources of data: mortality statistics, published by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys in the quarterly Monitor DH4, and road accident statistics, recorded by the police and published by the Department of Transport. There is a downward trend in deaths over the period, but the data show little impact from the law. One explanation for this lack of effect is the risk compensation hypothesis, which suggests that "safety" improvements are transferred by drivers into increased performance--the amount and speed of travel. Public health policies need to take into account the complex behavioural interactions between travel and safety choices if they are to affect underlying trends.

Multi-physics modelling contributions to investigate the atmospheric cosmic rays on the single event upset sensitivity along the scaling trend of CMOS technologies.

PubMed

Hubert, G; Regis, D; Cheminet, A; Gatti, M; Lacoste, V

2014-10-01

Particles originating from primary cosmic radiation, which hit the Earth's atmosphere give rise to a complex field of secondary particles. These particles include neutrons, protons, muons, pions, etc. Since the 1980s it has been known that terrestrial cosmic rays can penetrate the natural shielding of buildings, equipment and circuit package and induce soft errors in integrated circuits. Recently, research has shown that commercial static random access memories are now so small and sufficiently sensitive that single event upsets (SEUs) may be induced from the electronic stopping of a proton. With continued advancements in process size, this downward trend in sensitivity is expected to continue. Then, muon soft errors have been predicted for nano-electronics. This paper describes the effects in the specific cases such as neutron-, proton- and muon-induced SEU observed in complementary metal-oxide semiconductor. The results will allow investigating the technology node sensitivity along the scaling trend. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Harang reversal and the interchange stability of the magnetotail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohtani, Shinichi; Gkioulidou, Matina; Wang, Chih-Ping; Wolf, Richard A.

2016-04-01

The present study addresses steady convection in the plasma sheet in terms of the interchange stability with special attention to the Harang reversal. The closure of the tail current with a field-aligned current (FAC) results from the divergence/convergence of the pressure gradient current. If the magnetotail is in a steady state, the associated change of local plasma pressure p has to balance with its advective change. Accordingly, for adiabatic transport, the flux tube entropy parameter pVγ increases and decreases along the convection path in regions corresponding to downward and upward FACs, respectively. This requirement, along with the condition for the interchange stability imposes an important constraint on the direction of convection especially in the regions of downward FACs. It is deduced that for the dusk cell, the convection in the downward R2 current has to be directed azimuthally duskward, which follows the sunward, possibly dawnward deflected, convection in the region of the premidnight upward R1 current. This duskward turn of convection takes place in the vicinity of the R1-R2 demarcation, and it presumably corresponds to the Harang reversal. For the dawn cell the convection in the postmidnight downward R1 current has to deflect dawnward, and then it proceeds sunward in the upward R2 current. The continuity of the associated ionospheric currents consistently reproduces the assumed FAC distribution. The proposed interrelationships between the convection and FACs are also verified with a quasi-steady plasma sheet configuration and convection reproduced by a modified Rice Convection Model with force balance.

High-Energy Particle Showers Observed at Ground Level in Coincidence with Downward Lightning Leaders at the Telescope Array Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belz, John; Abbasi, Rasha; Le Von, Ryan; Krehbiel, Paul; Remington, Jackson; Rison, William

Terrestrial Gamma Ray Flashes (TGFs) detected by satellite observations have been shown to be generated by upward propagating negative leaders at altitudes of about 10 to 12 km above Mean Sea Level (MSL), and have durations ranging between a few hundred microseconds and a few milliseconds. The Telescope Array Cosmic Ray observatory, designed to observe air showers induced by ultra high energy cosmic rays, includes a surface scintillator detector (SD) covering approximately 700 square kilometers on a 1.2 km grid. Following the observation of anomalous SD triggers correlated with local lightning activity, a Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and slow electric field antenna were installed at the TA site in order to characterize the lightning associated with these anomalous triggers. In this talk, we present evidence that the anomalous triggers are produced during the initial breakdown phase of fast, downward propagating, negative leaders above the detectors which produced the triggers. The durations of the high energy radiation are a few hundred microseconds, similar to satellite observations of TGFs. The triggers were produced within a few hundred microseconds of the initiation of the leaders, when the leaders were at an altitude of about 3 to 4 km MSL. The TA scintillation detectors are not optimized for gamma ray detection, however we present the results of simulations demonstrating that the fluxes observed are consistent with this picture. We conclude that the anomalous triggers observed by TA are clearly due to high energy radiation produced by the fast downward propagating negative leaders, and are probably downward-directed TGFs.

Long-term patterns of urinary pyroglutamic acid in healthy humans.

PubMed

Lord, Richard S

2016-02-01

An investigation of human biological variation in urinary organic acids, including pyroglutamic acid along with 39 other compounds, was previously reported in which levels were determined for 8 weeks in healthy adult subjects. Here, unique, 4-week-long physiological trends for one of those compounds, pyroglutamic acid (PGA), are reported. When PGA levels for an individual rose above 40 μg/mg creatinine, 4-week downward progressions occurred until levels reached values near 15 μg/mg creatinine and the pattern was reversed when levels for an individual were below that level in the early weeks of the study. The pattern was especially prominent among 8 of the 13 menstruating female subjects suggesting a possible association with metabolic stress of the menstrual cycle. However, it also appeared in 3 of the 8 male subjects where other sources of metabolic stress may be present. The menstrual association is consistent with estrogen-mediated increase in oxidative stress. Since PGA is linked to glutathione turnover, the consistency of extreme values across all individuals displaying the pattern indicates that 15 and 40 μg/mg creatinine may represent limits that trigger shifts in sulfur amino acid metabolism. This is the first observation of approximate month-long cyclic responses in a glutathione-related urinary marker in humans. © 2016 The Author. Physiological Reports published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Physiological Society and The Physiological Society.

Association Between Gun Law Reforms and Intentional Firearm Deaths in Australia, 1979-2013.

PubMed

Chapman, Simon; Alpers, Philip; Jones, Michael

2016-07-19

Rapid-fire weapons are often used by perpetrators in mass shooting incidents. In 1996 Australia introduced major gun law reforms that included a ban on semiautomatic rifles and pump-action shotguns and rifles and also initiated a program for buyback of firearms. To determine whether enactment of the 1996 gun laws and buyback program were followed by changes in the incidence of mass firearm homicides and total firearm deaths. Observational study using Australian government statistics on deaths caused by firearms (1979-2013) and news reports of mass shootings in Australia (1979-May 2016). Changes in intentional firearm death rates were analyzed with negative binomial regression, and data on firearm-related mass killings were compared. Implementation of major national gun law reforms. Changes in mass fatal shooting incidents (defined as ≥5 victims, not including the perpetrator) and in trends of rates of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and suicides, and total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population. From 1979-1996 (before gun law reforms), 13 fatal mass shootings occurred in Australia, whereas from 1997 through May 2016 (after gun law reforms), no fatal mass shootings occurred. There was also significant change in the preexisting downward trends for rates of total firearm deaths prior to vs after gun law reform. From 1979-1996, the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 3.6 (95% CI, 3.3-3.9) per 100,000 population (average decline of 3% per year; annual trend, 0.970; 95% CI, 0.963-0.976), whereas from 1997-2013 (after gun law reforms), the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) per 100,000 population (average decline of 4.9% per year; annual trend, 0.951; 95% CI, 0.940-0.962), with a ratio of trends in annual death rates of 0.981 (95% CI, 0.968-0.993). There was a statistically significant acceleration in the preexisting downward trend for firearm suicide (ratio of trends, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.970-0.993), but this was not statistically significant for firearm homicide (ratio of trends, 0.975; 95% CI, 0.949-1.001). From 1979-1996, the mean annual rate of total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths was 10.6 (95% CI, 10.0-11.2) per 100,000 population (average increase of 2.1% per year; annual trend, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.016-1.026), whereas from 1997-2013, the mean annual rate was 11.8 (95% CI, 11.3-12.3) per 100,000 (average decline of 1.4% per year; annual trend, 0.986; 95% CI, 0.980-0.993), with a ratio of trends of 0.966 (95% CI, 0.958-0.973). There was no evidence of substitution of other lethal methods for suicides or homicides. Following enactment of gun law reforms in Australia in 1996, there were no mass firearm killings through May 2016. There was a more rapid decline in firearm deaths between 1997 and 2013 compared with before 1997 but also a decline in total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths of a greater magnitude. Because of this, it is not possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths can be attributed to the gun law reforms.

Mortality trends for tuberculosis in European Union countries, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Al-Rahamneh, Moad J; Al-Rahamneh, Anas; Guillén-Grima, Francisco; Arnedo-Pena, Alberto; Aguinaga-Ontoso, Inés

The objective of this study was to update and analyze tuberculosis (TB) mortality data in the European Union between 2000 and 2010 separately for men and women and try to detect if there have been any changes in trends in each country and the association with the economic situation and inequalities. Data were extracted for tuberculosis deaths in 2000-2010 for 29 European Union countries and for Switzerland, via the World Health Organization (WHO) European detailed mortality database (DMDB), using the Mortality tabulation list 1 (MTL1) codes for men and women separately for one age group (20-85+). We estimated age-standardised mortality rates, and analyzed data using the Joinpoint Regression Program for men and women separately in the European Union overall and by individual country for each year. Between 2000 and 2010, there were 68,771 recorded tuberculosis deaths in the European Union and the mortality rates were higher for men than women in the entire study zone. Overall, TB mortality rates declined linearly for both genders, but more in women than in men (from 5.43/100,000 in 2000 to 2.59/100,000 in 2010 in men and from 1.37/100,000 in 2000 to 0.51/100,000 in 2010 in women). There was decline in both genders for the entire study period, with a significant Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) of -8.1 for women and -7 for men when alpha<0.05 and with a 95% confidence interval (CI). A higher tuberculosis mortality was associated with lower economic resources and greater inequalities. TB mortality rates in the European Union decreased overall in 2000-2010 for both genders. Men have higher TB mortality rates than women in all countries. Our findings were consistent with the downward TB mortality trend in many other countries worldwide. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valentino, Eleonora Di; Mersini-Houghton, Laura, E-mail: valentin@iap.fr, E-mail: mersini@physics.unc.edu

The 2015 Planck data release has placed tight constraints on the allowed class of inflationary models. The current data favors concave downwards inflationary potentials while offering interesting hints on possible deviations from the standard picture of CMB perturbations. We here test the predictions of the theory of the origin of the universe from the landscape multiverse, against the most recent Planck data, for the case of concave downwards inflationary potentials, such as the Starobinsky model of inflation. By considering the quantum entanglement correction of the multiverse, we can place a lower limit on the local 'SUSY breaking' scale b >more » 1.2 × 10{sup 7} GeV at 95% c.l. from Planck TT+lowTEB. We find that this limit is consistent with the range for b that allows the landscape multiverse to explain a serie of anomalies present in the current data.« less

Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2016-06-22

For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends. We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%-1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%-2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%-1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05). We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.

Health impacts of rapid economic changes in Thailand.

PubMed

Tangcharoensathien, V; Harnvoravongchai, P; Pitayarangsarit, S; Kasemsup, V

2000-09-01

The economic crisis in Thailand in July 1997 had major social implications for unemployment, under employment, household income contraction, changing expenditure patterns, and child abandonment. The crisis increased poverty incidence by 1 million, of whom 54% were the ultra-poor. This paper explores and explains the short-term health impact of the crisis, using existing data and some special surveys and interviews for 2 years during 1998-99. The health impacts of the crisis are mixed, some being negative and some being positive. Household health expenditure reduced by 24% in real terms; among the poorer households, institutional care was replaced by self-medication. The pre-crisis rising trend in expenditure on alcohol and tobacco consumption was reversed. Immunization spending and coverage were sustained at a very high level after the crisis, but reports of increases in diphtheria and pertussis indicate declining programme quality. An increase in malaria, despite budget increases, had many causes but was mainly due to reduced programme effectiveness. STD incidence continued the pre-crisis downward trend. Rates of HIV risky sexual behaviour were higher among conscripts than other male workers, but in both groups there was lower condom use with casual partners. HIV serosurveillance showed a continuation of the pre-crisis downward trend among commercial sex workers (CSW, both brothel and non-brothel based), pregnant women and donated blood; this trend was slightly reversed among male STD patients and more among intravenous drug users. Condom coverage among brothel based CSW continued to increase to 97.5%, despite a 72% budget cut in free condom distribution. Poverty and lack of insurance coverage are two major determinants of absence of or inadequate antenatal care, and low birthweight. The Low Income Scheme could not adequately cover the poor but the voluntary Health Card Scheme played a health safety net role for maternal and child health. Low birthweight and underweight among school children were observed during the crisis. The impact of the crisis on health was minimal in some sectors but not in the others if the pre-crisis condition is efficient and healthy and vice versa. We demonstrated some key health status parameters during the 2-year period after the 1997 crisis but do not have firm conclusions on the impact of the economic crisis on health status, as our observation is too short and there is uncertainty on how long the crisis will last.

Decreasing incidence of cutaneous chemical burns in a resource limited burn centre: is this a positive effect of modernization?

PubMed

Nnabuko, R E E; Okoye, C P; Ogbonnaya, I S; Isiwele, Egi

2017-01-01

Burns present a devastating injury to patients. Burns caused by chemical agents, present a worse scenario. In a resource limited country like Nigeria, readily available sources of these corrosive agents are mainly from lead-acid battery vendors and to some extent local small scale soap manufacturers who use caustic soda. We hypothesized that with the reduction in small scale soap manufacturing and increasing trend towards modernization in the use of dry cell batteries, chemical burns may be on the decline, and we sought to investigate this. The records of all acute burn patients seen at the Burns and Plastic Department of the National Orthopaedic Hospital Enugu Nigeria between January 2011 and December 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. The results were compared to similar studies carried out at the same centre. A questionnaire was administered to corrosive chemical (sulphuric and caustic soda) vendors to assess the trends in product sales and use in recent times. A total of 624 acute burn cases were treated during the period; among which, 12 cases (1.9%) were chemical burns. When compared with previous studies at the centre, Chemical burn cases were  recorded as the lowest rate. The median age of patients was 24 years. There were eight males and four females. Interpersonal assault was the commonest mechanism of injury with sulphuric acid suspected to be the commonest agent in 83.3% of the cases, while 16.7% of the cases were from accidental use of caustic soda. The head and neck as well as the upper limbs were the most affected (30%). Twenty-six questionnaires to lead-acid vendors were analyzed and revealed that all respondents noticed a marked downward trend in the sale of either sulphuric acid or caustic soda, and they attributed this to the ready availability of imported alternatives to locally manufactured soap or wet lead-acid batteries. Ease of use, durability and convenience of the dry cell batteries were cited as principal reasons. There appears to be a downward trend in the prevalence of chemical burns in our study compared to previous studies in the centre which may be due to reduced availability and access of corrosive chemicals to the general public. Further prospective multicentre studies to confirm this are recommended.

DOES FIELD DATA SHOW DOWNWARD MOBILIZATION OF DNAPL DURING THERMAL REMEDIATION?

EPA Science Inventory

The question of will DNAPLs be mobilized downward during thermal remediation has been asked many times. Indeed, downward mobilization of DNAPLs during steam injection has been observed in the lab. The mechanism for this downward mobilization was the concentration of the contami...

The self-consistent parallel electric field due to electrostatic ion-cyclotron turbulence in downward auroral-current regions of the Earth's magnetosphere. IV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasperse, John R.; Basu, Bamandas; Lund, Eric J.; Grossbard, Neil

2010-06-01

The physical processes that determine the self-consistent electric field (E∥) parallel to the magnetic field have been an unresolved problem in magnetospheric physics for over 40 years. Recently, a new multimoment fluid theory was developed for inhomogeneous, nonuniformly magnetized plasma in the guiding-center and gyrotropic approximation that includes the effect of electrostatic, turbulent, wave-particle interactions (see Jasperse et al. [Phys. Plasmas 13, 072903 (2006); Jasperse et al., Phys. Plasmas13, 112902 (2006)]). In the present paper and its companion paper [Jasperse et al., Phys. Plasmas 17, 062903 (2010)], which are intended as sequels to the earlier work, a fundamental model for downward, magnetic field-aligned (Birkeland) currents for quasisteady conditions is presented. The model includes the production of electrostatic ion-cyclotron turbulence in the long-range potential region by an electron, bump-on-tail-driven ion-cyclotron instability. Anomalous momentum transfer (anomalous resistivity) by itself is found to produce a very small contribution to E∥; however, the presence of electrostatic, ion-cyclotron turbulence has a very large effect on the altitude dependence of the entire quasisteady solution. Anomalous energy transfer (anomalous heating and cooling) modifies the density, drift, and temperature altitude profiles and hence the generalized parallel-pressure gradients and mirror forces in the electron and ion momentum-balance equations. As a result, |E∥| is enhanced by nearly a factor of 40 compared to its value when turbulence is absent. The space-averaged potential increase associated with the strong double layer at the bottom of the downward-current sheet is estimated using the FAST satellite data and the multimoment fluid theory.

Trends in ethnic disparities in stroke incidence in Auckland, New Zealand, during 1981 to 2003.

PubMed

Carter, Kristie; Anderson, Craig; Hacket, Maree; Feigin, Valery; Barber, P Alan; Broad, Joanna B; Bonita, Ruth

2006-01-01

Although geographical variations in stroke rates are well documented, limited data exist on temporal trends in ethnic-specific stroke incidence. We assessed trends in ethnic-specific stroke rates using standard diagnostic criteria and community-wide surveillance procedures in Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) in 1981 to 1982, 1991 to 1992, and 2002 to 2003. Indirect and direct methods were used to adjust first-ever (incident) and total (attack) rates for changes in the structure of the population and reported with 95% CIs. Ethnicity was self-defined and categorized as "NZ/European," "Maori," "Pacific peoples," and "Asian and other." Stroke attack (19%; 95% CI, 11% to 26%) and incidence rates (19%; 95% CI, 12% to 24%) declined significantly in NZ/Europeans from 1981 to 1982 to 2002 to 2003. These rates remained high or increased in other ethnic groups, particularly for Pacific peoples in whom stroke attack rates increased by 66% (95% CI; 11% to 225%) over the periods. Some favorable downward trends in vascular risk factors, such as cigarette smoking, were counterbalanced by increasing age, body mass index, and diabetes in certain ethnic groups. Divergent trends in ethnic-specific stroke incidence and attack rates, and of associated risk factors, have occurred in Auckland over recent decades. The findings provide mixed views as to the future burden of stroke in populations undergoing similar lifestyle and structural changes.

Temporal trends of Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn in mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from the Spanish North-Atlantic coast 1991-1999.

PubMed

Besada, V; Fumega, J; Vaamonde, A

2002-04-15

Temporal trends for heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn) in mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from the Galician and Cantabrian areas in Spain, where samples were yearly collected from 1991 to 1999, are presented. This study was carried out by the Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo of the Instituto Español de Oceanografia (I.E.O.) as part of the Spanish contribution to the Joint Assessment and Monitoring Programme (JAMP) of the OSPAR Convention. The experimental work and subsequent statistical treatment, following OSPAR procedures and guidelines, are described. In order to carry out the statistical treatment of the data, median values of the different shell length classes were used for each contaminant, year and area. The Kendall T-b correlation coefficient was used with the purpose of demonstrating the existence of a downward significant temporal trend in the pollution levels, according to the advice of ICES Working Group on Statistical Aspects of Environmental Monitoring. A decrease of copper levels was detected in Vigo, Pontevedra and Arosa, of mercury in Pontevedra and A Coruña, of lead in Vigo, Pontevedra, A Coruña and Bilbao and of zinc in Pontevedra and A Coruña. However, a cadmium positive trend was registered at Ria de Vigo. No significant trends were detected in the other cases.

What goes up must . . . Keep going up? Cultural differences in cognitive styles influence evaluations of dynamic performance.

PubMed

Ferris, D Lance; Reb, Jochen; Lian, Huiwen; Sim, Samantha; Ang, Dionysius

2018-03-01

Past research on dynamic workplace performance evaluation has taken as axiomatic that temporal performance trends produce naïve extrapolation effects on performance ratings. That is, we naïvely assume that an individual whose performance has trended upward over time will continue to improve, and rate that individual more positively than an individual whose performance has trended downward over time-even if, on average, the 2 individuals have performed at an equivalent level. However, we argue that such naïve extrapolation effects are more pronounced in Western countries than Eastern countries, owing to Eastern countries having a more holistic cognitive style. To test our hypotheses, we examined the effect of performance trend on expectations of future performance and ratings of past performance across 2 studies: Study 1 compares the magnitude of naïve extrapolation effects among Singaporeans primed with either a more or less holistic cognitive style, and Study 2 examines holistic cognitive style as a mediating mechanism accounting for differences in the magnitude of naïve extrapolation effects between American and Chinese raters. Across both studies, we found support for our predictions that dynamic performance trends have less impact on the ratings of more holistic thinkers. Implications for the dynamic performance and naïve extrapolation literatures are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Long Term Trend Analysis and Assessment of Water Quality in the Penchala River, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, M. F.; Haris, H. B.; Mohd Sidek, L. B.

2014-12-01

Rapid urban expansion produces negative impacts on the natural environment, especially river water quality. Studies assessing long term changes of water quality have been recognized as a key tool for understanding ongoing processes in watersheds and for providing an essential background for evaluation of rapid changes within industrialized and populated urban areas. Unfortunately, only limited studies are available for developing countries such as Malaysia. Thus, a long term study was conducted to evaluate water quality trends at Pencala river basin that has undergone extensive land use changes related to industrial, agricultural and urban activities. Fifteen physical and chemical variables were analysed in river water samples collected every month over a period of 13 years, between 1997 and 2009. The trend study was performed using the Mann-Kendall Seasonal test and the Sen's Slope estimator. Results revealed that most water quality parameters showed a downward trend for yearly average concentration. The water quality index (WQI) for Pencala River was improved from Class V to Class IV, according to National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia. BOD, COD, NH3-N and SS show trends toward decreasing concentrations over time. The improvements seen in water quality appear to be the result of improved wastewater treatment and other water quality improvement efforts achieved through government initiative. Continued long-term and high frequency monitoring is necessary to establish plans and policies for effective water resources management.

Improved survival after stroke: is admission to hospital the major explanation? Trend analyses of the Auckland Regional Community Stroke Studies.

PubMed

Carter, Kristie N; Anderson, Craig S; Hackett, Maree L; Barber, P Alan; Bonita, Ruth

2007-01-01

There is uncertainty regarding the impact of changes in stroke care and natural history of stroke in the community. We examined factors responsible for trends in survival after stroke in a series of population-based studies. We used statistical models to assess temporal trends in 28-day and 1-year case fatality after first-ever stroke cases registered in 3 stroke incidence studies undertaken in Auckland, New Zealand, over uniform 12-month calendar periods in 1981-1982 (n = 1,030), 1991-1992 (1,305) and 2001-2002 (1,423). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the significance of pre-defined 'patient', 'disease' and 'service/care' factors on these trends. Overall, there was a 40% decline in 28-day case fatality after stroke over the study periods, from 32% (95% confidence interval, 29-35%) in 1981-1982 to 23% (21-25%) in 1991-1992 and then 19% (17-21%) in 2002-2003. Similar relative declines were seen in 1-year case fatality. In regression models, the trends were still significant after adjusting for patient and disease factors. However, further adjustment for care factors (higher hospital admission and neuroimaging) explained most of the improvement in survival. These data show significant downwards trends in case fatality after stroke in Auckland over 20 years, which can largely be attributed to improved stroke care associated with increases in hospital admission and brain imaging during the acute phase of the illness.

Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

2014-01-01

Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2017-04-01

This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.

Trends in cardiovascular diseases and cancer mortality in 45 countries from five continents (1980-2010).

PubMed

Araújo, Fábio; Gouvinhas, Cláudia; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Azevedo, Ana; Lunet, Nuno

2014-08-01

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancer are worldwide main causes of death with mortality trends varying across countries with different levels of economic development. We analysed trends in CVD and cancer mortality for 37 European countries, five high-income non-European countries and four leading emerging economies (BRICS) using data from the World Health Organization database for the period 1980-2010. In high-income countries, CVD mortality trends are characterized by steep declines over the last decades, while a downward trend in cancer mortality started more recently and was less pronounced. This resulted in the gradual convergence of the CVD and cancer mortality rates, and the latter are already higher in some countries. The absolute number of CVD deaths decreased in most settings, while cancer deaths increased in nearly all countries. Among the BRICS, China and South Africa share a similar pattern of no meaningful variation in both CVD and cancer age-standardized mortality rates and an increase in the overall number of deaths by these causes. Brazil presents trends similar to those of high-income countries, except for the still increasing number of CVD deaths. The substantial decreases in CVD mortality over the last decades have overcome the impact of the growth and ageing of populations in the overall number of deaths, while stabilization in the number of cancer deaths was observed only in some of the high-income countries. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vrieling, Anton; deBeurs, K. M.; Brown, Molly E.

2011-01-01

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Growth and condition of alewives in Lake Michigan, 1984-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Holuszko, Jeffrey D.; DeSorcie, Timothy J.

2003-01-01

Diets of salmonines in Lake Michigan have been dominated by alewives Alosa pseudoharengus since the 1960s, and information on alewife population dynamics is critical to the management of salmonine fisheries. We monitored alewife size at age and condition (K) at several different locations in Lake Michigan during fall 1984–2001. Alewives were aged by enumerating annuli on otoliths. The results indicated that alewife length at age did not trend upward or downward between 1984 and the late 1990s but decreased from the late 1990s to 2001. Alewife weight at age was relatively constant between 1984 and the mid-1990s but decreased from the mid-1990s to 2001. Mean condition for a given alewife age was, on average, 13.7% higher during 1984–1994 than during 1995–2001. This decline in alewife condition was not a density-dependent response by the alewife population because alewife abundance trended neither upward nor downward during 1984–2001. The decline in alewife condition was possibly due to the lakewide decrease in the abundance of Diporeia spp. during the 1990s. Apparently, the availability of the large-bodied invertebrates Diporeia and Mysis spp. was an important regulator of adult alewife growth because alewives attained a substantially larger size in Lake Michigan, where these invertebrates were relatively important constituents of the adult alewife diet, than in Lake Ontario, where these invertebrates were not readily eaten by adult alewives. For age-2 or older females, mean length was 2–9 mm greater than for males. Alewife size at age and condition were slightly higher on the eastern side of Lake Michigan than on the western side.

Spatio-temporal representativeness of ground-based downward solar radiation measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, Matthias; Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris

2017-04-01

Surface solar radiation (SSR) is most directly observed with ground based pyranometer measurements. Besides measurement uncertainties, which arise from the pyranometer instrument itself, also errors attributed to the limited spatial representativeness of observations from single sites for their large-scale surrounding have to be taken into account when using such measurements for energy balance studies. In this study the spatial representativeness of 157 homogeneous European downward surface solar radiation time series from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) and the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) were examined for the period 1983-2015 by using the high resolution (0.05°) surface solar radiation data set from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF SARAH) as a proxy for the spatiotemporal variability of SSR. By correlating deseasonalized monthly SSR time series form surface observations against single collocated satellite derived SSR time series, a mean spatial correlation pattern was calculated and validated against purely observational based patterns. Generally decreasing correlations with increasing distance from station, with high correlations (R2 = 0.7) in proximity to the observational sites (±0.5°), was found. When correlating surface observations against time series from spatially averaged satellite derived SSR data (and thereby simulating coarser and coarser grids), very high correspondence between sites and the collocated pixels has been found for pixel sizes up to several degrees. Moreover, special focus was put on the quantification of errors which arise in conjunction to spatial sampling when estimating the temporal variability and trends for a larger region from a single surface observation site. For 15-year trends on a 1° grid, errors due to spatial sampling in the order of half of the measurement uncertainty for monthly mean values were found.

Nutritional and productive performance of dairy cows fed corn silage or sugarcane silage with or without additives.

PubMed

de Andrade, Felipe Leite; Rodrigues, João Paulo Pacheco; Detmann, Edenio; Valadares Filho, Sebastião de Campos; Castro, Marcelo Messias Duarte; Trece, Aline Souza; Silva, Tadeu Eder; Fischer, Vivian; Weiss, Kirsten; Marcondes, Marcos Inácio

2016-04-01

The objective of this study was to compare the intake, digestibility, and performance of dairy cows fed corn silage, fresh sugarcane, and sugarcane ensiled in three different forms. Twenty-five Holstein cows at 114 ± 12.6 days in milk (DIM) were used. A randomized block design was adopted, using an arrangement of repeated measures over time. The following treatments were tested: corn silage (CS); fresh sugarcane (FS); sugarcane silage without additives (SCS); sugarcane silage enriched with calcium oxide at 5 g/kg of forage (SCSc); and sugarcane silage enriched with Lactobacillus buchneri at 5 × 10(4) cfu/kg of forage (SCSb). The roughage to concentrate ratio was 60:40 for the CS diet and 40:60 for the sugarcane-based diets. The dry matter intake (DMI) as a function of body weight had a downward trend for the cows fed sugarcane silage, compared with those fed FS. The sugarcane silages had higher digestibilities of dry matter (DM), organic matter (OM), and neutral detergent fiber (NDFap), compared with FS. The use of L. buchneri or calcium oxide improved the diet's digestibility. The use of FS, sugarcane silage, or sugarcane silage with additives had no effects on milk and fat-corrected milk yield, compared to corn silage. Cows fed FS presented lower milk total solids content and had a downward trend for milk fat, compared with cows fed sugarcane-silage diets. Cows fed sugarcane silages produced milk with higher casein stability in the alcohol test than cows fed fresh-sugarcane diet. Sugarcane silage, with or without additives, did not reduce the intake of dairy cows, and the use of additives improved the fiber's digestibility.

Algae viability over time in a ballast water sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gollasch, Stephan; David, Matej

2018-03-01

The biology of vessels' ballast water needs to be analysed for several reasons, one of these being performance tests of ballast water management systems. This analysis includes a viability assessment of phytoplankton. To overcome logistical problems to get algae sample processing gear on board of a vessel to document algae viability, samples may be transported to land-based laboratories. Concerns were raised how the storage conditions of the sample may impact algae viability over time and what the most appropriate storage conditions were. Here we answer these questions with a long-term algae viability study with daily sample analysis using Pulse-Amplitude Modulated (PAM) fluorometry. The sample was analysed over 79 days. We tested different storage conditions: fridge and room temperature with and without light. It seems that during the first two weeks of the experiment the viability remains almost unchanged with a slight downwards trend. In the continuing period, before the sample was split, a slightly stronger downwards viability trend was observed, which occurred at a similar rate towards the end of the experiment. After the sample was split, the strongest viability reduction was measured for the sample stored without light at room temperature. We concluded that the storage conditions, especially regarding temperature and light exposure, have a stronger impact on algae viability compared to the storage duration and that inappropriate storage conditions reduce algal viability. A sample storage time of up to two weeks in a dark and cool environment has little influence on the organism viability. This indicates that a two week time duration between sample taking on board a vessel and the viability measurement in a land-based laboratory may not be very critical.

DOES FIELD DATA SHOW DOWNWARD MOBILIZATION OF DNAPL DURING THERMAL REMEDIATION? (ABSTRACT)

EPA Science Inventory

The question of will DNAPLs be mobilized downward during thermal remediation has been asked many times. Indeed, downward mobilization of DNAPLs during steam injection has been observed in the lab. The mechanism for this downward mobilization was the concentration of the contami...

Recent changes in the trends of teen birth rates, 1981-2006.

PubMed

Wingo, Phyllis A; Smith, Ruben A; Tevendale, Heather D; Ferré, Cynthia

2011-03-01

To explore trends in teen birth rates by selected demographics. We used birth certificate data and joinpoint regression to examine trends in teen birth rates by age (10-14, 15-17, and 18-19 years) and race during 1981-2006 and by age and Hispanic origin during 1990-2006. Joinpoint analysis describes changing trends over successive segments of time and uses annual percentage change (APC) to express the amount of increase or decrease within each segment. For teens younger than 18 years, the decline in birth rates began in 1994 and ended in 2003 (APC: -8.03% per year for ages 10-14 years; APC: -5.63% per year for ages 15-17 years). The downward trend for 18- and 19-year-old teens began earlier (1991) and ended 1 year later (2004) (APC: -2.37% per year). For each study population, the trend was approximately level during the most recent time segment, except for continuing declines for 18- and 19-year-old white and Asian/Pacific Islander teens. The only increasing trend in the most recent time segment was for 18- and 19-year-old Hispanic teens. During these declines, the age distribution of teens who gave birth shifted to slightly older ages, and the percentage whose current birth was at least their second birth decreased. Teen birth rates were generally level during 2003/2004-2006 after the long-term declines. Rates increased among older Hispanic teens. These results indicate a need for renewed attention to effective teen pregnancy prevention programs in specific populations. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Recent Trends in Imaging Use in Hospital Settings: Implications for Future Planning.

PubMed

Levin, David C; Parker, Laurence; Rao, Vijay M

2017-03-01

To compare trends in utilization rates of imaging in the three hospital-based settings where imaging is conducted. The nationwide Medicare Part B databases for 2004-2014 were used. All discretionary noninvasive diagnostic imaging (NDI) CPT codes were selected and grouped by modality. Procedure volumes of each code were available from the databases and converted to utilization rates per 1,000 Medicare enrollees. Medicare's place-of-service codes were used to identify imaging examinations done in hospital inpatients, hospital outpatient departments (HOPDs), and emergency departments (EDs). Trends were observed over the life of the study. Trendlines were strongly affected by code bundling in echocardiography in 2009, nuclear imaging in 2010, and CT in 2011. However, even aside from these artifactual effects, important trends could be discerned. Inpatient imaging utilization rates of all modalities are trending downward. In HOPDs, the utilization rate of conventional radiographic examinations (CREs) is declining but rates of CT, MRI, echocardiography, and noncardiac ultrasound (US) are increasing. In EDs, utilization rates of CREs, CT, and US are increasing. In the 3 years after 2011, when no further code bundling occurred, the total inpatient NDI utilization rate dropped 15%, whereas the rate in EDs increased 12% and that in HOPDs increased 1%. The trends in utilization of NDI in the three hospital-based settings where imaging occurs are distinctly different. Radiologists and others who are involved in deciding what kinds of equipment to purchase and where to locate it should be cognizant of these trends in making their decisions. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

State-by-State Variation in the Number of Children and Young Adults in Nursing Homes, 2005-2012.

PubMed

Jin, Evan; Agrawal, Rishi

2017-12-01

Objectives One goal of Healthy People 2020 is to reduce the number of children and young adults living in nursing homes. However, little is known about the prevalence of nursing home use among children and young adults on a state-by-state basis. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of nursing home use among children and young adults in each state from 2005 to 2012. The study also looked for prevalence trends between 2005 and 2012. Methods The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Minimum Data Set and US Census data were used to calculate the prevalence of nursing home residents among children and young adults aged 0-30 in each US state in 2012 and assess trends in each state from 2005 to 2012. Results In 2012, the prevalence of nursing home residents among children and young adults aged 0-30 varied across states, ranging from 14 in 100,000 (New Jersey) to 0.8 in 100,000 (Alaska). Testing for trends from 2005 to 2012 also revealed significant trends (p < 0.05), with Florida trending upward with borderline statistical significance (p = 0.05) and six states trending downward. Conclusion There is wide variation in the prevalence of nursing home residents among children and young adults aged 0-30 across states. There is also variation in the nursing home prevalence trends across states. Observed variations may represent potential opportunities for some states to reduce their population of children and young adults in nursing homes.

Musical trends and predictability of success in contemporary songs in and out of the top charts

PubMed Central

Interiano, Myra; Kazemi, Kamyar; Wang, Lijia; Yang, Jienian; Yu, Zhaoxia

2018-01-01

We analyse more than 500 000 songs released in the UK between 1985 and 2015 to understand the dynamics of success (defined as ‘making it’ into the top charts), correlate success with acoustic features and explore the predictability of success. Several multi-decadal trends have been uncovered. For example, there is a clear downward trend in ‘happiness’ and ‘brightness’, as well as a slight upward trend in ‘sadness’. Furthermore, songs are becoming less ‘male’. Interestingly, successful songs exhibit their own distinct dynamics. In particular, they tend to be ‘happier’, more ‘party-like’, less ‘relaxed’ and more ‘female’ than most. The difference between successful and average songs is not straightforward. In the context of some features, successful songs pre-empt the dynamics of all songs, and in others they tend to reflect the past. We used random forests to predict the success of songs, first based on their acoustic features, and then adding the ‘superstar’ variable (informing us whether the song’s artist had appeared in the top charts in the near past). This allowed quantification of the contribution of purely musical characteristics in the songs’ success, and suggested the time scale of fashion dynamics in popular music. PMID:29892348

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

The stable isotope composition of halite and sulfate of hyperarid soils and its relation to aqueous transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amundson, Ronald; Barnes, Jaime D.; Ewing, Stephanie; Heimsath, Arjun; Chong, Guillermo

2012-12-01

Halite (NaCl) and gypsum or anhydrite (CaSO4) are water-soluble minerals found in soils of the driest regions of Earth, and only modest attention has been given to the hydrological processes that distribute these salts vertically in soil profiles. The two most notable chloride and sulfate-rich deserts on earth are the Dry Valleys of Antarctica and the Atacama Desert of Chile. While each is hyperarid, they possess very different hydrological regimes. We first show, using previously published S and O isotope data for sulfate minerals, that downward migration of water and sulfate is the primary mechanism responsible for depth profiles of sulfate concentration, and S and O isotopes, in both deserts. In contrast, we found quite different soluble Cl concentration and Cl isotope profiles between the two deserts. For Antarctic soils with an ice layer near the soil surface, the Cl concentrations increase with decreasing soil depth, whereas the ratio of 37Cl/35Cl increases. Based on previous field observations by others, we found that thermally driven upward movement of brine during the winter, described by an advection/diffusion model, qualitatively mimics the observed profiles. In contrast, in the Atacama Desert where rare but relatively large rains drive Cl downward through the profiles, Cl concentrations and 37Cl/35Cl ratios increased with depth. The depth trends in Cl isotopes are more closely explained by a Rayleigh-like model of downward fluid flow. The isotope profiles, and our modeling, reveal the similarities and differences between these two very arid regions on Earth, and are relevant for constraining models of fluid flow in arid zone soil and vadose zone hydrology.

Surface-Water Quality Conditions and Long-Term Trends at Selected Sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, Water Years 1993-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barr, Miya N.; Davis, Jerri V.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. These data are collected as part of the Missouri Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network and constitute a valuable source of reliable, impartial, and timely information for developing an improved understanding of water resources in the State. Six sites from the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network, with data available from the 1993 through 2008 water years, were chosen to compare water-quality conditions and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen, selected physical properties, total suspended solids, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal indicator bacteria, and selected trace elements. The six sites used in the study were classified in groups corresponding to the physiography, main land use, and drainage basin size, and represent most stream types in Missouri. Long-term trends in this study were analyzed using flow-adjusted and non-flow adjusted models. Highly censored datasets (greater than 5 percent but less than 50 percent censored values) were not flow-adjusted. Trends that were detected can possibly be related to changes in agriculture or urban development within the drainage basins. Trends in nutrients were the most prevalent. Upward flow-adjusted trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen) concentrations were identified at the Elk River site, and in total phosphorus concentrations at the South Fabius and Grand River sites. A downward flow-adjusted trend was identified in total phosphorus concentrations from Wilson Creek, the only urban site in the study. The downward trend in phosphorus possibly was related to a phosphorus reduction system that began operation in 2001 at a wastewater treatment plant upstream from the sampling site. Total suspended solids concentrations indicated an upward non-flow adjusted trend at the two northern sites (South Fabius and Grand Rivers). The increase in total suspended solids concentrations could be because of soil erosion from land cultivated for row crops. Most trace element data examined in the study were highly censored and could not be used for flow-adjusted trend analyses. Water-quality conditions were assessed to explore relations between data from sites and to the State water-quality standards where applicable for selected constituents. Streamflow varied at each site because of drainage area, land use, and groundwater inputs. Dissolved oxygen and water temperature were similar at all sites except the urban site located on Wilson Creek. Specific conductance was similar between the most northern (South Fabius and Grand River sites) and the most southern sites (Current and Elk River sites). Total suspended solids concentrations were near the method reporting level at all sites, except the northern sites. Streams in northern Missouri are more turbid than streams in southern Missouri and are affected by large volumes of sediment deposition because of soil erosion from land cultivated for row crops. Geometric means of Escherichia coli were calculated from the recreational seasons within the study period. Only the Grand River site exceeded the whole-body-contact standard for frequently used waters. The South Fabius and Grand River sites and the Wilson Creek site had statistically larger densities of both fecal indicator bacteria types than the remaining sites.

Children's Knowledge of Deceptive Gaze Cues and Its Relation to Their Actual Lying Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarthy, Anjanie; Lee, Kang

2009-01-01

Eye gaze plays a pivotal role during communication. When interacting deceptively, it is commonly believed that the deceiver will break eye contact and look downward. We examined whether children's gaze behavior when lying is consistent with this belief. In our study, 7- to 15-year-olds and adults answered questions truthfully ("Truth" questions)…

Images of Bottomside Irregularities Observed at Topside Altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, William J.; Gentile, Louise C.; Shomo, Shannon R.; Roddy, Patrick A.; Pfaff, Robert F.

2012-01-01

We analyzed plasma and field measurements acquired by the Communication/ Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite during an eight-hour period on 13-14 January 2010 when strong to moderate 250 MHz scintillation activity was observed at nearby Scintillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA) ground stations. C/NOFS consistently detected relatively small-scale density and electric field irregularities embedded within large-scale (approx 100 km) structures at topside altitudes. Significant spectral power measured at the Fresnel (approx 1 km) scale size suggests that C/NOFS was magnetically conjugate to bottomside irregularities similar to those directly responsible for the observed scintillations. Simultaneous ion drift and plasma density measurements indicate three distinct types of large-scale irregularities: (1) upward moving depletions, (2) downward moving depletions, and (3) upward moving density enhancements. The first type has the characteristics of equatorial plasma bubbles; the second and third do not. The data suggest that both downward moving depletions and upward moving density enhancements and the embedded small-scale irregularities may be regarded as Alfvenic images of bottomside irregularities. This interpretation is consistent with predictions of previously reported theoretical modeling and with satellite observations of upward-directed Poynting flux in the low-latitude ionosphere.

Assessment of primary and secondary ambient particle trends using satellite aerosol optical depth and ground speciation data in the New England region, United States

PubMed Central

Lee, Hyung Joo; Kang, Choong-Min; Coull, Brent A.; Bell, Michelle L.; Koutrakis, Petros

2014-01-01

The effectiveness of air pollution emission control policies can be evaluated by examining ambient pollutant concentration trends that are observed at a large number of ground monitoring sites over time. In this paper, we used ground monitoring measurements in conjunction with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data to investigate fine particulate matter (PM2.5; particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm) trends and their spatial patterns over a large U.S. region, New England, during 2000–2008. We examined the trends in rural and urban areas to get a better insight about the trends of regional and local source emissions. Decreases in PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3) were more pronounced in urban areas than in rural ones. In addition, the highest and lowest PM2.5 decreases (μg/m3) were observed for winter and summer, respectively. Together, these findings suggest that primary particle concentrations decreased more relative to secondary ones. This is also supported by the analysis of the speciation data which showed that downward trends of primary pollutants including black carbon were stronger than those of secondary pollutants including sulfate. Furthermore, this study found that ambient primary pollutants decreased at the same rate as their respective source emissions. This was not the case for secondary pollutants which decreased at a slower rate than that of their precursor emissions. This indicates that concentrations of secondary pollutants depend not only on the primary emissions but also on the availability of atmospheric oxidants which might not change during the study period. This novel approach of investigating spatially varying concentration trends, in combination with ground PM2.5 species trends, can be of substantial regulatory importance. PMID:24906074

A kinetic study of blinking responses in cats

PubMed Central

Trigo, José Alberto; Roa, Laura; Gruart, Agnès; Delgado-García, José María

2003-01-01

Reflexively evoked and eye-related eyelid responses were recorded using the search coil in a magnetic field technique in alert cats. The downward phase of a blink was a large (up to 21 deg), fast (up to 2000 deg s−1) eyelid displacement in the closing direction, with an almost fixed rise time duration (15-20 ms); its maximum velocity was achieved in ≈10 ms. Upward eyelid motion was separated into two phases. The first phase consisted of a fast eyelid displacement, with a short duration (≈30 ms) and a maximum velocity up to 900 deg s−1. The second phase had an exponential-like form, lasting for 200–400 ms, and a maximum velocity ranging between 30 and 250 deg s−1. Maximum blink velocity in the downward direction was linearly related to maximum velocity of the first upward phase. The first phase in the upward direction was never observed if the eyelid stayed closed for a long period (> 50 ms) or moved slowly in the closing direction before it started to open. In these two cases, the upswing motion of the blink reflex contained only the exponential-like movement characteristic of the second upward phase, and maximum velocity in the downward direction was not related to that of the eyelid upward displacement. Mean duration of eyelid downward saccades was ≈130 ms, and their peak velocities ranged between 50 and 440 ms. A physiological model is presented explaining the active and passive forces involved in both reflex and saccadic eyelid responses. A second-order system seems to be appropriate to describe the postulated biomechanical model. PMID:12665614

On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chunlüe; He, Yanyi; Wang, Kaicun

2018-06-01

Reanalyses are widely used because they add value to routine observations by generating physically or dynamically consistent and spatiotemporally complete atmospheric fields. Existing studies include extensive discussions of the temporal suitability of reanalyses in studies of global change. This study adds to this existing work by investigating the suitability of reanalyses in studies of regional climate change, in which land-atmosphere interactions play a comparatively important role. In this study, surface air temperatures (Ta) from 12 current reanalysis products are investigated; in particular, the spatial patterns of trends in Ta are examined using homogenized measurements of Ta made at ˜ 2200 meteorological stations in China from 1979 to 2010. The results show that ˜ 80 % of the mean differences in Ta between the reanalyses and the in situ observations can be attributed to the differences in elevation between the stations and the model grids. Thus, the Ta climatologies display good skill, and these findings rebut previous reports of biases in Ta. However, the biases in theTa trends in the reanalyses diverge spatially (standard deviation = 0.15-0.30 °C decade-1 using 1° × 1° grid cells). The simulated biases in the trends in Ta correlate well with those of precipitation frequency, surface incident solar radiation (Rs) and atmospheric downward longwave radiation (Ld) among the reanalyses (r = -0.83, 0.80 and 0.77; p < 0.1) when the spatial patterns of these variables are considered. The biases in the trends in Ta over southern China (on the order of -0.07 °C decade-1) are caused by biases in the trends in Rs, Ld and precipitation frequency on the order of 0.10, -0.08 and -0.06 °C decade-1, respectively. The biases in the trends in Ta over northern China (on the order of -0.12 °C decade-1) result jointly from those in Ld and precipitation frequency. Therefore, improving the simulation of precipitation frequency and Rs helps to maximize the signal component corresponding to regional climate. In addition, the analysis of Ta observations helps represent regional warming in ERA-Interim and JRA-55. Incorporating vegetation dynamics in reanalyses and the use of accurate aerosol information, as in the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), would lead to improvements in the modelling of regional warming. The use of the ensemble technique adopted in the twentieth-century atmospheric model ensemble ERA-20CM significantly narrows the uncertainties associated with regional warming in reanalyses (standard deviation = 0.15 °C decade-1).

Did policies to abate atmospheric emissions from traffic have a positive effect in London?

PubMed

Font, Anna; Fuller, Gary W

2016-11-01

A large number of policy initiatives are being taken at the European level, across the United Kingdom and in London to improve air quality and reduce population exposure to harmful pollutants from traffic emissions. Trends in roadside increments of nitrogen oxides (NO X ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), particulate matter (PM), black carbon (CBLK) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were examined at 65 London monitoring sites for two periods of time: 2005-2009 and 2010-2014. Between 2005 and 2009 there was an overall increase in NO 2 reflecting the growing evidence of real world emissions from diesel vehicles. Conversely, NO 2 decreased by 10%·year -1 from 2010 onwards along with PM 2.5 (-28%·year -1 ) and black carbon (-11%·year -1 ). Downwards trends in air pollutants were not fully explained by changes in traffic counts therefore traffic exhaust emission abatement policies were proved to be successful in some locations. PM 10 concentrations showed no significant overall change suggesting an increase in coarse particles which offset the decrease in tailpipe emissions; this was especially the case on roads in outer London where an increase in the number of Heavy Good Vehicles (HGVs) was seen. The majority of roads with increasing NO X experienced an increase in buses and coaches. Changes in CO 2 from 2010 onwards did not match the downward predictions from reduced traffic flows and improved fleet efficiency. CO 2 increased along with increasing HGVs and buses. Polices to manage air pollution provided differential benefits across London's road network. To investigate this, k-means clustering technique was applied to group roads which behaved similarly in terms of trends to evaluate the effectiveness of policies to mitigate traffic emissions. This is the first time that London's roadside monitoring sites have been considered as a population rather than summarized as a mean behaviour only, allowing greater insight into the differential changes in air pollution abatement policies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Ecological study of road traffic injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region: country economic level, road user category and gender perspectives.

PubMed

Sengoelge, Mathilde; Laflamme, Lucie; El-Khatib, Ziad

2018-02-13

The Eastern Mediterranean region has the second highest number of road traffic injury mortality rates after the African region based on 2013 data, with road traffic injuries accounting for 27% of the total injury mortality in the region. Globally the number of road traffic deaths has plateaued despite an increase in motorization, but it is uncertain whether this applies to the Region. This study investigated the regional trends in both road traffic injury mortality and morbidity and examined country-based differences considering on income level, categories of road users, and gender distribution. Register-based ecological study linking data from Global Burden of Disease Study with the United Nations Statistics Division for population and World Bank definition for country income level. Road traffic injury mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years were compiled for all ages at country level in 1995, 2005, 2015 and combined for a regional average (n = 22) and a global average (n = 122). The data were stratified by country economic level, road user category and gender. Road traffic injury mortality rates in the Region were higher than the global average for all three reference years but suggest a downward trend. In 2015 mortality rates were more than twice as high in low and high income countries compared to global income averages and motor vehicle occupants had a 3-fold greater mortality than the global average. Severe injuries decreased by more than half for high/middle income countries but remained high for low income countries; three times higher for males than females. Despite a potential downward trend, inequalities in road traffic injury mortality and morbidity burden remain high in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Action needs to be intensified and targeted to implement and enforce safety measures that prevent and mitigate severe motor vehicle crashes in high income countries especially and invest in efforts to promote public, active transport for vulnerable road users in the resource poor countries of the Region.

Chinese mitten crab surveys of San Joaquin River basin and Suisun Marsh, California, 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

May, Jason T.; Brown, Larry R.

2001-01-01

Juvenile Chinese mitten crabs (Eriocheir sinensis) are known to use both brackish and freshwater habitats as rearing areas. The objectives of this study were to examine the habitat use and potential effects of mitten crabs in the freshwater habitats of the San Joaquin River drainage up-stream of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. After several unsuccessful attempts to catch or observe mitten crabs by trapping, electrofishing, and visual observations, the study was redirected to determine the presence of crabs in the San Joaquin River (in the vicinity of Mossdale) and Suisun Marsh. Monthly surveys using baited traps in the San Joaquin River were done from June through November 2000 and in the Suisun Marsh from August through October 2000. No mitten crabs were caught in the San Joaquin River Basin and only one mitten crab was caught in Suisun Marsh. Surveys were conducted at 92 locations in the San Joaquin River Basin by deploying 352 traps for 10,752 hours of trapping effort; in Suisun Marsh, 34 locations were investigated by deploying 150 traps for 3,600 hours of trapping effort. The baited traps captured a variety of organisms, including catfishes (Ictularidae), yellowfin gobies (Acantho-gobius flavimanus), and crayfish (Decapoda). It is unclear whether the failure to capture mitten crabs in the San Joaquin River Basin and Suisun Marsh was due to ineffective trapping methods, or repre-sents a general downward trend in populations of juvenile mitten crabs in these potential rearing areas or a temporary decline related to year-class strength. Available data (since 1998) on the number of mitten crabs entrained at federal and state fish salvage facilities indicate a downward trend in the number of crabs, which may indicate a declining trend in use of the San Joaquin River Basin by juvenile mitten crabs. Continued monitoring for juvenile Chinese mitten crabs in brackish and freshwater portions of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basins is needed to better assess the potential population variability of this relatively new invasive species and the possible management strategies.

First Atmospheric Science Results from the Mars Exploration Rovers Mini-TES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Michael D.; Wolff, Michael J.; Lemmon, Mark T.; Spanovich, Nicole; Banfield, Don; Budney, Charles J.; Clancy, R. Todd; Ghosh, Amitabha; Landis, Geoffrey A.; Smith, Peter;

Potential Effects of Health Care Policy Decisions on Physician Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia, Christopher; Goodrich, Michael

2011-01-01

Many regions in America are experiencing downward trends in the number of practicing physicians and the number of available physician hours, resulting in a worrisome decrease in the availability of health care services. Recent changes in American health care legislation may induce a rapid change in the demand for health care services, which in turn will result in a new supply-demand equilibrium . In this paper we develop a system dynamics model linking physician availability to health care demand and profitability. We use this model to explore scenarios based on different initial conditions and describe possible outcomes for a range of different policy decisions.

First Atmospheric Science Results from the Mars Exploration Rovers Mini-TES.

PubMed

Smith, Michael D; Wolff, Michael J; Lemmon, Mark T; Spanovich, Nicole; Banfield, Don; Budney, Charles J; Clancy, R Todd; Ghosh, Amitabha; Landis, Geoffrey A; Smith, Peter; Whitney, Barbara; Christensen, Philip R; Squyres, Steven W

2004-12-03

Thermal infrared spectra of the martian atmosphere taken by the Miniature Thermal Emission Spectrometer (Mini-TES) were used to determine the atmospheric temperatures in the planetary boundary layer and the column-integrated optical depth of aerosols. Mini-TES observations show the diurnal variation of the martian boundary layer thermal structure, including a near-surface superadiabatic layer during the afternoon and an inversion layer at night. Upward-looking Mini-TES observations show warm and cool parcels of air moving through the Mini-TES field of view on a time scale of 30 seconds. The retrieved dust optical depth shows a downward trend at both sites.

Variation of psilocybin and psilocin levels with repeated flushes (harvests) of mature sporocarps of Psilocybe cubensis (Earle) Singer.

PubMed

Bigwood, J; Beug, M W

1982-05-01

Analysis of Psilocybe cubensis (Earle) Singer grown in controlled culture showed that the level of psilocin was generally zero in the first (or sometimes even the second) fruiting of the mushroom from a given culture and that the level reached a maximum by the fourth flush. The level of psilocybin, which was nearly always at least twice the level of psilocin, showed no upward or downward trend as fruiting progressed, but was variable over a factor of four. Samples obtained from outside sources had psilocybin levels varying by over a factor of ten from one collection to the next.

Galileo Probe Doppler Residuals as the Wave-Dynamical Signature of Weakly Stable, Downward-Increasing Stratification in Jupiter's Deep Wind Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allison, Michael; Atkinson, David H.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Doppler radio tracking of the Galileo probe-to-orbiter relay, previously analyzed for its in situ measure of Jupiter's zonal wind at the equatorial entry site, also shows a record of significant residual fluctuations apparently indicative of varying vertical motions. Regular oscillations over pressure depth in the residual Doppler measurements of roughly 1-8 Hz (increasing upward), as filtered over a 134 sec window, are most plausibly interpreted as gravity waves, and imply a weak, but downward increasing static stability within the 5 - 20 bar region of Jupiter's atmosphere. A matched extension to deeper levels of an independent inertial stability constraint from the measured vertical wind shear at 1 - 4 bars is roughly consistent with a static stability of approximately 0.5 K/km near the 20 bar level, as independently detected by the probe Atmospheric Structure Instrument.

Testing predictions of the quantum landscape multiverse 1: the Starobinsky inflationary potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Valentino, Eleonora; Mersini-Houghton, Laura

2017-03-01

The 2015 Planck data release has placed tight constraints on the allowed class of inflationary models. The current data favors concave downwards inflationary potentials while offering interesting hints on possible deviations from the standard picture of CMB perturbations. We here test the predictions of the theory of the origin of the universe from the landscape multiverse, against the most recent Planck data, for the case of concave downwards inflationary potentials, such as the Starobinsky model of inflation. By considering the quantum entanglement correction of the multiverse, we can place a lower limit on the local `SUSY breaking' scale b > 1.2 × 107 GeV at 95% c.l. from Planck TT+lowTEB. We find that this limit is consistent with the range for b that allows the landscape multiverse to explain a serie of anomalies present in the current data.

Evidence for ion heat flux in the light ion polar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biddle, A. P.; Moore, T. E.; Chappell, C. R.

1985-01-01

Cold flowing hydrogen and helium ions have been observed using the retarding ion mass spectrometer on board the Dynamics Explorer 1 spacecraft in the dayside magnetosphere at subauroral latitudes. The ions show a marked flux asymmetry with respect to the relative wind direction. The observed data are fitted by a model of drifting Maxwellian distributions perturbed by a first order-Spritzer-Haerm heat flux distribution function. It is shown that both ion species are supersonic just equatorward of the auroral zone at L = 14, and the shape of asymmetry and direction of the asymmetry are consistent with the presence of an upward heat flux. At L = 6, both species evolve smoothly into warmer subsonic upward flows with downward heat fluxes. In the case of subsonic flows the downward heat flux implies a significant heat source at higher altitudes. Spin curves of the spectrometer count rate versus the spin phase angle are provided.

Detection of temperature trends within the course of the year using "shifting subseasons"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, Monika; Pokorna, Lucie

2015-04-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there are seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in Central and Eastern Europe. Daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations in Europe during the period 1961-2000 are employed to precisely locate the seasonal and subseasonal trends within the course of the year. Linear trends are calculated for moving "subseasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "shifting trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in Eastern Europe. Two regions stand out: in Iceland and the Eastern Mediterranean, the trends during the year are weak, positive in summer and mostly negative in winter, reaching statistical significance at only few stations. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in Eastern and Southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in Western and Central Europe in February, April, and late June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Our results suggest that using different time scales, apart from the conventional three-month seasons or common months, is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

Recent Uptrend in Whole-Grain Intake Is Absent for Low-Income Adolescents, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2005–2012

PubMed Central

Leung, Cindy W.; Leak, Tashara M.; Laraia, Barbara A.

2017-01-01

Introduction Whole-grain consumption reduces risk of chronic disease, yet adolescents consume suboptimal amounts. It is unclear whether trends in consumption of whole grains have been positive among adolescents, and research assessing disparities by socioeconomic status is limited. The objective of our study was to evaluate recent trends in whole-grain consumption by US adolescents. Methods We examined data on 3,265 adolescents aged 13 to18 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2012. Intake of whole and refined grains was analyzed by using generalized linear models, and odds of no whole-grain intake were examined with logistic regression, adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic factors. We evaluated trends and examined heterogeneity of trends with respect to annual household income. Results Daily whole-grain consumption among adolescents increased overall by about a quarter-ounce–equivalent per day (oz-eq/d) (P trend <.001). We found a significant relationship between whole-grain intake and income. Daily whole grains (recommended as ≥3 oz-eq/d), increased (0.6 to 1.0 oz-eq/d) among high-income adolescents (P trend < .001) but remained at 0.5 oz-eq/d for low-income adolescents. The ratio of whole grains to total grains (recommended to be at least 50%) rose from 7.6% to 14.2% for high-income adolescents (P trend < .001), with no significant trend for the low-income group. Consumption of refined grains did not change. Odds of having no whole grains trended downward, but only for the high-income adolescents (P trend = .01). Conclusion These data show significant (albeit modest) trends toward increased intake of whole grains among high-income adolescents nationwide that are absent among low-income peers. Future interventions and policies should address barriers to whole-grain consumption among this vulnerable group. PMID:28682743

Recent Uptrend in Whole-Grain Intake Is Absent for Low-Income Adolescents, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2005-2012.

PubMed

Tester, June M; Leung, Cindy W; Leak, Tashara M; Laraia, Barbara A

2017-07-06

Whole-grain consumption reduces risk of chronic disease, yet adolescents consume suboptimal amounts. It is unclear whether trends in consumption of whole grains have been positive among adolescents, and research assessing disparities by socioeconomic status is limited. The objective of our study was to evaluate recent trends in whole-grain consumption by US adolescents. We examined data on 3,265 adolescents aged 13 to18 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2012. Intake of whole and refined grains was analyzed by using generalized linear models, and odds of no whole-grain intake were examined with logistic regression, adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic factors. We evaluated trends and examined heterogeneity of trends with respect to annual household income. Daily whole-grain consumption among adolescents increased overall by about a quarter-ounce-equivalent per day (oz-eq/d) (P trend <.001). We found a significant relationship between whole-grain intake and income. Daily whole grains (recommended as ≥3 oz-eq/d), increased (0.6 to 1.0 oz-eq/d) among high-income adolescents (P trend < .001) but remained at 0.5 oz-eq/d for low-income adolescents. The ratio of whole grains to total grains (recommended to be at least 50%) rose from 7.6% to 14.2% for high-income adolescents (P trend < .001), with no significant trend for the low-income group. Consumption of refined grains did not change. Odds of having no whole grains trended downward, but only for the high-income adolescents (P trend = .01). These data show significant (albeit modest) trends toward increased intake of whole grains among high-income adolescents nationwide that are absent among low-income peers. Future interventions and policies should address barriers to whole-grain consumption among this vulnerable group.

Trends in pesticide concentrations in corn-belt streams, 1996-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Daniel J.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Lorenz, David L.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Martin, Jeffrey D.

2009-01-01

Trends in the concentrations of commonly occurring pesticides in the Corn Belt of the United States were assessed, and the performance and application of several statistical methods for trend analysis were evaluated. Trends in the concentrations of 11 pesticides with sufficient data for trend assessment were assessed at up to 31 stream sites for two time periods: 1996–2002 and 2000–2006. Pesticides included in the trend analyses were atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, simazine, metribuzin, prometon, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon.The statistical methods applied and compared were (1) a modified version of the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test (SEAKEN), (2) a modified version of the Regional Kendall test, (3) a parametric regression model with seasonal wave (SEAWAVE), and (4) a version of SEAWAVE with adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q). The SEAKEN test is a statistical hypothesis test for detecting monotonic trends in seasonal time-series data such as pesticide concentrations at a particular site. Trends across a region, represented by multiple sites, were evaluated using the regional seasonal Kendall test, which computes a test for an overall trend within a region by computing a score for each season at each site and adding the scores to compute the total for the region. The SEAWAVE model is a parametric regression model specifically designed for analyzing seasonal variability and trends in pesticide concentrations. The SEAWAVE-Q model accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic trends from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use.There was broad, general agreement between unadjusted trends (no adjustment for streamflow effects) identified by the SEAKEN and SEAWAVE methods, including the regional seasonal Kendall test. Only about 10 percent of the paired comparisons between SEAKEN and SEAWAVE indicated a difference in the direction of trend, and none of these had differences significant at the 10-percent significance level. This consistency of results supports the validity and robustness of all three approaches as trend analysis tools. The SEAWAVE method is favored, however, because it has less restrictive data requirements, enabling analysis for more site/pesticide combinations, and can incorporate adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q) with substantially fewer measurements than the flow-adjustment procedure used with SEAKEN.Analysis of flow-adjusted trends is preferable to analysis of non-adjusted trends for evaluating potential effects of changes in pesticide use or management practices because flow-adjusted trends account for the influence of flow-related variability.Analysis of flow-adjusted trends by SEAWAVE-Q showed that all of the pesticides assessed, except simazine and acetochlor, were dominated by varying degrees of concentration downtrends in one or both analysis periods. Atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin—all major corn herbicides, as well as prometon and chlorpyrifos, showed more prevalent concentration downtrends during 1996–2002 compared to 2000–2006. Diazinon had no clear trends during 1996–2002, but had predominantly downward trends during 2000–2006. Acetochlor trends were mixed during 1996–2002 and slightly upward during 2000–2006, but most of the trends were not statistically significant. Simazine concentrations trended upward at most sites during both 1996–2002 and 2000–2006.Comparison of concentration trends to agricultural-use trends indicated similarity in direction and magnitude for acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin. Concentration downtrends for atrazine, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon were steeper than agricultural-use downtrends at some sites, indicating the possibility that agricultural management practices may have increasingly reduced transport to streams (particularly atrazine) or, for chlorpyrifos and diazinon, that nonagricultural uses declined substantially. Concentration uptrends for simazine generally were steeper than agricultural-use uptrends, indicating the possibility that nonagricultural uses of this herbicide increased during the study period.

Dental Caries in American Indian Toddlers after a Community-Based Beverage Intervention

PubMed Central

Maupomé, Gerardo; Karanja, Njeri; Ritenbaugh, Cheryl; Lutz, Tam; Aickin, Mikel; Becker, Thomas

2014-01-01

Objective/Setting The Toddler Overweight and Tooth decay prevention Study (TOTS) was an overweight and early childhood caries (ECC) project in the Pacific Northwest USA. It targeted American Indian (AI) toddlers from birth, to effect changes in breastfeeding and sweetened beverage consumption. Design/Intervention/Participants The intervention cohort was children born in three communities during 12 months; expectant mothers were identified through prenatal visits, and recruited by tribal coordinators. The local comparison cohorts were children in those communities who were 18–30 months at study start. A control longitudinal cohort consisted of annual samples of children aged 18–30 months in a fourth community, supplying secular trends. Outcome measures d1–2mfs was used to identify incident caries in intervention, comparison, and control cohorts after 18-to-30 months of follow-up in 2006. Results No missing or filled teeth were found. For d1t, all three intervention cohorts showed statistically significant downward intervention effects, decreases of between 0.300 and 0.631 in terms of the fraction of affected mouths. The results for d2t were similar but of smaller magnitudes, decreases of between 0.342 and 0.449; these results met the 0.05 level for significance in two of three cases. In light of an estimated secular increase in dental caries in the control site, all three intervention cohorts showed improvements in both d1t and d2t. Conclusions Simple interventions targeting sweetened beverage availability (in combination with related measures) reduced high tooth decay trends, and were both feasible and acceptable to the AI communities we studied. PMID:21305835

[Changes in smoking prevalence among adolescents in Spain].

PubMed

Villalbí, Joan R; Suelves, Josep M; García-Continente, Xavier; Saltó, Esteve; Ariza, Carles; Cabezas, Carmen

2012-01-01

To analyse information on adolescent use of tobacco in Spain from different school surveys. Data on daily smoking prevalence by sex at the end of compulsory education is extracted and figures are compared, analysing trends. The five representative studies on adolescents in Spain are reviewed: The National Survey on Drug Use in Secondary School Children (Encuesta estatal sobre uso de drogas en estudiantes de secundaria (ESTUDES); Survey of Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC-ECERS); Surveillance System of Risk Factors Associated With Non-Transmittable diseases in the Young Population (Sistema de Vigilancia de Factores de Riesgo Asociados a Enfermedades No Transmisibles dirigido a población Juvenil)(SIVFRENT-J); Study of Risk Factors in Secondary School Children (Estudio de factores de riesgo en estudiantes de secundaria) (FRESC); Surveillance Study of Health Behaviour in Adolescents (Estudio de Monitorización de las Conductas de Salud de los Adolescentes) (EMCSAT). The prevalence of daily smokers varies among studies, in boys from 8.5 to 13.3% and in girls from 12.7 to 16.4%. Although some series show variations, the trend from 1993 to 2008 is downwards. With data from recent years, weighted annual declines in smoking prevalence in adolescence can be estimated to be 6.47% for boys and 6.96% for girls. There is a decreasing pattern in adolescent daily smoking prevalence in Spain from the different existing studies, which provide consistent data, although surveillance must be kept due to fluctuations. This is in agreement with tobacco sales statistics and health surveys in the adult population. However, the pace of change should be more rapid and constant. © 2010 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic gradients in all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality among immigrants and long-term residents using linked death records in Ontario, Canada

PubMed Central

Khan, Anam M; Urquia, Marcelo; Kornas, Kathy; Henry, David; Cheng, Stephanie Y; Bornbaum, Catherine

2017-01-01

Background Immigrants have been shown to possess a health advantage, yet are also more likely to reside in arduous economic conditions. Little is known about if and how the socioeconomic gradient for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality differs according to immigration status. Methods Using several linked population-based vital and demographic databases from Ontario, we examined a cohort of all deaths in the province between 2002 and 2012. We constructed count models, adjusted for relevant covariates, to attain age-adjusted mortality rates and rate ratios for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality across income quintile in immigrants and long-term residents, stratified by sex. Results A downward gradient in age-adjusted all-cause mortality was observed with increasing income quintile, in immigrants (males: Q5: 13.32, Q1: 20.18; females: Q5: 9.88, Q1: 12.51) and long-term residents (males: Q5: 33.25, Q1: 57.67; females: Q5: 22.31, Q1: 36.76). Comparing the lowest and highest income quintiles, male and female immigrants had a 56% and 28% lower all-cause mortality rate, respectively. Similar trends were observed for premature and avoidable mortality. Although immigrants had consistently lower mortality rates compared with long-term residents, trends only differed statistically across immigration status for females (p<0.05). Conclusions This study illustrated the presence of income disparities as it pertains to all-cause, premature, and avoidable mortality, irrespective of immigration status. Additionally, the immigrant health advantage was observed and income disparities were less pronounced in immigrants compared with long-term residents. These findings support the need to examine the factors that drive inequalities in mortality within and across immigration status. PMID:28289039

Four years (2011-2015) of total gaseous mercury measurements from the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, Katie A.; Neves, Luis M.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Fleming, Zoe L.; Kentisbeer, John

2017-04-01

Mercury is a chemical with widespread anthropogenic emissions that is known to be highly toxic to humans, ecosystems and wildlife. Global anthropogenic emissions are around 20 % higher than natural emissions and the amount of mercury released into the atmosphere has increased since the industrial revolution. In 2005 the European Union and the United States adopted measures to reduce mercury use, in part to offset the impacts of increasing emissions in industrialising countries. The changing regional emissions of mercury have impacts on a range of spatial scales. Here we report 4 years (December 2011-December 2015) of total gaseous mercury (TGM) measurements at the Cape Verde Observatory (CVO), a global WMO-GAW station located in the subtropical remote marine boundary layer. Observed total gaseous mercury concentrations were between 1.03 and 1.33 ng m-3 (10th, 90th percentiles), close to expectations based on previous interhemispheric gradient measurements. We observe a decreasing trend in TGM (-0.05 ± 0.04 ng m-3 yr-1, -4.2 % ± 3.3 % yr-1) over the 4 years consistent with the reported decrease of mercury concentrations in North Atlantic surface waters and reductions in anthropogenic emissions. The decrease was more visible in the summer (July-September) than in the winter (December-February), when measurements were impacted by air from the African continent and Sahara/Sahel regions. African air masses were also associated with the highest and most variable TGM concentrations. We suggest that the less pronounced downward trend inclination in African air may be attributed to poorly controlled anthropogenic sources such as artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) in West Africa.

Control chart pattern recognition using RBF neural network with new training algorithm and practical features.

PubMed

Addeh, Abdoljalil; Khormali, Aminollah; Golilarz, Noorbakhsh Amiri

2018-05-04

The control chart patterns are the most commonly used statistical process control (SPC) tools to monitor process changes. When a control chart produces an out-of-control signal, this means that the process has been changed. In this study, a new method based on optimized radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is proposed for control chart patterns (CCPs) recognition. The proposed method consists of four main modules: feature extraction, feature selection, classification and learning algorithm. In the feature extraction module, shape and statistical features are used. Recently, various shape and statistical features have been presented for the CCPs recognition. In the feature selection module, the association rules (AR) method has been employed to select the best set of the shape and statistical features. In the classifier section, RBFNN is used and finally, in RBFNN, learning algorithm has a high impact on the network performance. Therefore, a new learning algorithm based on the bees algorithm has been used in the learning module. Most studies have considered only six patterns: Normal, Cyclic, Increasing Trend, Decreasing Trend, Upward Shift and Downward Shift. Since three patterns namely Normal, Stratification, and Systematic are very similar to each other and distinguishing them is very difficult, in most studies Stratification and Systematic have not been considered. Regarding to the continuous monitoring and control over the production process and the exact type detection of the problem encountered during the production process, eight patterns have been investigated in this study. The proposed method is tested on a dataset containing 1600 samples (200 samples from each pattern) and the results showed that the proposed method has a very good performance. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tendency for age-specific mortality with hypertension in the European Union from 1980 to 2011.

PubMed

Tao, Lichan; Pu, Cunying; Shen, Shutong; Fang, Hongyi; Wang, Xiuzhi; Xuan, Qinkao; Xiao, Junjie; Li, Xinli

2015-01-01

Tendency for mortality in hypertension has not been well-characterized in European Union (EU). Mortality data from 1980 to 2011 in EU were used to calculate age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR, per 100,000), annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to compare the changes in tendency. Mortality rates in the most recent year studied vary between different countries, with the highest rates observed in Slovakia men and Estonia women. A downward trend in ASMR was demonstrated over all age groups. Robust decreases in ASMR were observed for both men (1991-1994, APC = -13.54) and women (1996-1999, APC = -14.80) aged 55-65 years. The tendency of systolic blood pressure (SBP) from 1980 to 2009 was consistent with ASMR, and the largest decrease was observed among Belgium men and France women. In conclusion, SBP associated ASMR decreased significantly on an annual basis from 1980 to 2009 while a slight increase was observed after 2009. Discrepancies in ASMR from one country to another in EU are significant during last three decades. With a better understanding of the tendency of the prevalence of hypertension and its mortality, efforts will be made to improve awareness and help strict control of hypertension.

Tendency for age-specific mortality with hypertension in the European Union from 1980 to 2011

PubMed Central

Tao, Lichan; Pu, Cunying; Shen, Shutong; Fang, Hongyi; Wang, Xiuzhi; Xuan, Qinkao; Xiao, Junjie; Li, Xinli

2015-01-01

Tendency for mortality in hypertension has not been well-characterized in European Union (EU). Mortality data from 1980 to 2011 in EU were used to calculate age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR, per 100,000), annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to compare the changes in tendency. Mortality rates in the most recent year studied vary between different countries, with the highest rates observed in Slovakia men and Estonia women. A downward trend in ASMR was demonstrated over all age groups. Robust decreases in ASMR were observed for both men (1991-1994, APC = -13.54) and women (1996-1999, APC = -14.80) aged 55-65 years. The tendency of systolic blood pressure (SBP) from 1980 to 2009 was consistent with ASMR, and the largest decrease was observed among Belgium men and France women. In conclusion, SBP associated ASMR decreased significantly on an annual basis from 1980 to 2009 while a slight increase was observed after 2009. Discrepancies in ASMR from one country to another in EU are significant during last three decades. With a better understanding of the tendency of the prevalence of hypertension and its mortality, efforts will be made to improve awareness and help strict control of hypertension. PMID:25932090

Vestibular stimulation interferes with the dynamics of an internal representation of gravity.

PubMed

De Sá Teixeira, Nuno Alexandre; Hecht, Heiko; Diaz Artiles, Ana; Seyedmadani, Kimia; Sherwood, David P; Young, Laurence R

2017-11-01

The remembered vanishing location of a moving target has been found to be displaced downward in the direction of gravity (representational gravity) and more so with increasing retention intervals, suggesting that the visual spatial updating recruits an internal model of gravity. Despite being consistently linked with gravity, few inquiries have been made about the role of vestibular information in these trends. Previous experiments with static tilting of observers' bodies suggest that under conflicting cues between the idiotropic vector and vestibular signals, the dynamic drift in memory is reduced to a constant displacement along the body's main axis. The present experiment aims to replicate and extend these outcomes while keeping the observers' bodies unchanged in relation to physical gravity by varying the gravito-inertial acceleration using a short-radius centrifuge. Observers were shown, while accelerated to varying degrees, targets moving along several directions and were required to indicate the perceived vanishing location after a variable interval. Increases of the gravito-inertial force (up to 1.4G), orthogonal to the idiotropic vector, did not affect the direction of representational gravity, but significantly disrupted its time course. The role and functioning of an internal model of gravity for spatial perception and orientation are discussed in light of the results.

Peculiar Abundances Observed in the Hot Subdwarf OB Star LB 3241

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chayer, Pierre; Dupuis, J.; Dixon, W. V.; Giguere, E.

2010-01-01

We present a spectral synthesis analysis of the hot subdwarf OB star LB 3241. The analysis is based on spectra obtained by the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE). With an effective temperature of 41,000 K and a gravity of log g = 5.7, the position of LB 3241 in a Teff-log g diagram suggests that it has evolved from the extreme horizontal branch. Such stars evolve into white dwarfs without ascending the asymptotic giant branch after the helium core exhaustion. Arsenic (Z = 33), selenium (34), and tellurium (52) are observed in the atmosphere of LB 3241, and are a first for a hot subdwarf star. LB 3241 shows peculiar chemical abundances that exhibit trends observed in cooler sdB stars. The content of its atmosphere in light elements is about a factor ten lower than that of the Sun, except for nitrogen which has a solar abundance. The Fe abundance is consistent with a solar abundance, but abundances of elements beyond the iron peak (As, Se, Te, Pb) show enrichments over the solar values by factors ranging from 10 to 300. These observations suggest that competing mechanisms must counterbalance the effects of the downward diffusion. The FUSE observations also suggest that LB 3241 is a radial velocity variable.

On shapes and motion of an elongated bubble in downward liquid pipe flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fershtman, A.; Babin, V.; Barnea, D.; Shemer, L.

2017-11-01

In stagnant liquid, or in a steady upward liquid pipe flow, an elongated (Taylor) bubble has a symmetric shape. The translational velocity of the bubble is determined by buoyancy and the liquid velocity profile ahead of it. In downward flow, however, the symmetry of the bubble nose can be lost. Taylor bubble motion in downward flow is important in numerous applications such as chemical plants and cooling systems that often contain countercurrent gas-liquid flow. In the present study, the relation between the Taylor bubble shape and its translational velocity is investigated experimentally in a vertical pipe for various downward liquid flow rates. At higher downward velocities, the bubble may be forced by the background flow to propagate downward against buoyancy. In order to include those cases as well in our experimental analysis, the bubbles were initially injected into stagnant liquid, whereas the downward flow was initiated at a later stage. This experimental procedure allowed us to identify three distinct modes of translational velocities for a given downward background liquid flow; each velocity corresponds to a different bubble shape. Hydrodynamic mechanisms that govern the transition between the modes observed in the present study are discussed.

Stratospheric cooling and downward planetary-wave propagation in the lowermost stratosphere during the 2010-11 winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishii, K.; Nakamura, H.; Orsolini, Y. J.

2012-04-01

Dynamical cooling in the polar stratosphere is induced by weakening of E-P flux convergence (i.e. anomalous divergence) in the stratosphere. As the E-P flux convergence is mainly contributed to by upward planetary-wave (PW) propagation from the troposphere, the intensity of its propagation is well correlated with the E-P flux convergence and the polar stratospheric temperature. Recent studies (Orsolini et al. 2009, QJRMS; Nishii et al. 2010, GRL) pointed out that a tropospheric blocking high over the western Pacific, whose anomalous circulation is projected strongly onto the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern, tends to weaken the upward PW propagation and thus lower the polar stratospheric temperature. In this study, we present a possibility that downward PW propagation in the lowermost stratosphere can also cause the E-P flux divergence in the polar stratosphere and thereby the stratospheric cooling. On the basis of prominent downward events of the 100-hPa E-P flux averaged over the mid- to high-latitudes in the northern hemisphere, we performed a lag composite analysis for each of the terms of the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) equation. In the composite time evolution, downward E-P flux in the lowermost stratosphere and the E-P flux divergence aloft are evident around the reference date, followed by persistent cooling of the polar stratosphere for more than two weeks. About one week before the reference date, enhanced upward E-P flux and its convergence lead to the deceleration of upper-stratospheric zonal winds and thus the weakening of their vertical shear , which may result in the formation of a turning surface for upward-propagating PWs. Our results are overall consistent with Harnik (2009, JGR), who showed that a short pulse of upward-propagating PWs forms a turning surface in the upper stratosphere, where the PWs that subsequently propagate upward can be reflected back. By taking above results into consideration, we analyzed the prolonged cold 2010-11 winter. We found that while three cooling events in December and January were accompanied by tropospheric WP pattern events, cooling in February and March was led by downward-propagating PW events.

Surface mount component jig

DOEpatents

Kronberg, James W.

1990-08-07

A device for bending and trimming the pins of a dual-inline-package component and the like for surface mounting rather than through mounting to a circuit board comprises, in a first part, in pin cutter astride a holder having a recess for holding the component, a first spring therebetween, and, in a second part, two flat members pivotally interconnected by a hinge and urged to an upward peaked position from a downward peaked position by a second spring. As a downward force is applied to the pin cutter it urges the holder downward, assisted by the first spring and a pair of ridges riding on shoulders of the holder, to carry the component against the upward peaked flat members which guide the pins outwardly. As the holder continues downwardly, the flat members pivot to the downward peaked position bending the pins upwardly against the sides of the holder. When the downward movement is met with sufficient resistance, the ridges of the pin cutter ride over the holder's shoulders to continue downward to cut any excess length of pin.

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2014-01-01

Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

Projected growth in pharmacy education and research, 2010 to 2015.

PubMed

Knapp, Katherine K; Manolakis, Michael; Webster, Andrew A; Olsen, Keith M

2011-08-10

To determine projected growth in pharmacy education and research from 2010 to 2015 and to relate findings to external and internal factors. An e-mail survey instrument was sent to all US pharmacy deans, and responses were used to estimate growth in the number of first-professional-degree doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) graduates, residents/fellows, graduate students, faculty members, graduate research faculty members, and postdoctoral fellows. Results were related to the national economy, trends in faculty vacancies, growth trends in other health professions, pharmacist roles, and healthcare reform. Five-year growth projections were: 58% increase in the number of residents/fellows, 23% in postdoctoral fellows, 21% in entry-level PharmD graduates, 19% in graduate/research faculty members, 17% in graduate students, and 13% in total pharmacy faculty members. Residencies/fellowships showed the highest projected growth rates (58%). Graduate education and research data suggest a growing research enterprise. Faculty vacancy trends were downward and this suggests better faculty availability in coming years. Substantial growth is expected from 2010 to 2015 in all areas of pharmacy education. External factors and how well the profession is able to demonstrate its contribution to resolving healthcare problems may influence the actual growth rates achieved.

[Trends and inequalities in risk behaviors among adolescents: a comparison of birth cohorts in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil].

PubMed

Arroyave, Leidy Johanna Ocampo; Restrepo-Méndez, María Clara; Horta, Bernardo Lessa; Menezes, Ana Maria Baptista; Gigante, Denise Petrucci; Gonçalves, Helen

2016-10-10

This study focuses on trends and inequalities in health risk behaviors among adolescents. A cross-sectional study compared two birth cohorts in the city of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. The sample included 1,281 adolescents from the 1982 cohort and 4,106 from the 1993 cohort, followed in 2001 and 2011, respectively. The study recorded alcohol intake, illegal drug use, smoking, sexual initiation < 16 years, lack of condom use, and multiple sex partners. Total prevalence rates were calculated for each cohort, stratified by gender and per capita income, besides absolute and relative measures of inequality. There was a decrease from 2001 to 2011 in prevalence rates for trying alcohol, illegal drug use, smoking, and lack of condom use, and an increase in the number of sex partners. The gap between boys and girls increased for non-use of condoms and decreased for the other behaviors. The gap between income groups decreased for sexual initiation before 16 years of age and increased for episodes of intoxication. Socioeconomic inequalities persist, despite the downward trend in prevalence of risk behaviors.

Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years.

PubMed

Tanoue, Masahiro; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Ikeuchi, Hiroaki

2016-10-26

The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections.

Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years

PubMed Central

Tanoue, Masahiro; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Ikeuchi, Hiroaki

2016-01-01

The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections. PMID:27782160

[Homicides in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: an analysis of lethal violence].

PubMed

Cardoso, Francisca Letícia Miranda Gadelha; Cecchetto, Fátima Regina; Corrêa, Juliana Silva; de Souza, Tiago Oliveira

2016-04-01

The evolution of rates were analyzed for the following categories: murder, larceny, bodily harm followed by death, homicide for resistance to police resulting in death, policeman killed, missing persons and dead bodies found in the state and city of Rio de Janeiro and in Integrated Public Security Area 16 (AISP 16). An ecological study was conducted for the period from 2002 to 2013, using data from the Public Security Institute. To analyze the time trend and evolution of murder charges, resistance to police resulting in death and missing persons rates, Joinpoint regression was performed, using these rates as the dependent variables and the calendar year as the independent variable. For the other categories only the time trends of the rates were analyzed for the relative change in rates at the beginning and end of the period. There were falls in rates in all categories, except for missing persons. The murder rate showed a significant downward trend in the three locations. The results contributed to definition of the pattern of violence in the three locations based on the dialogue between the social sciences, public health and safety that made it possible to establish subjective and objective aspects linked to the study findings.

Oral cavity cancer trends over the past 25 years in Hong Kong: a multidirectional statistical analysis.

PubMed

Ushida, Keisuke; McGrath, Colman P; Lo, Edward C M; Zwahlen, Roger A

2015-07-24

Even though oral cavity cancer (OCC; ICD 10 codes C01, C02, C03, C04, C05, and C06) ranks eleventh among the world's most common cancers, accounting for approximately 2 % of all cancers, a trend analysis of OCC in Hong Kong is lacking. Hong Kong has experienced rapid economic growth with socio-cultural and environmental change after the Second World War. This together with the collected data in the cancer registry provides interesting ground for an epidemiological study on the influence of socio-cultural and environmental factors on OCC etiology. A multidirectional statistical analysis of the OCC trends over the past 25 years was performed using the databases of the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. The age, period, and cohort (APC) modeling was applied to determine age, period, and cohort effects on OCC development. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to find secular trend changes of both age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates. The APC model detected that OCC development in men was mainly dominated by the age effect, whereas in women an increasing linear period effect together with an age effect became evident. The joinpoint regression analysis showed a general downward trend of age-standardized incidence rates of OCC for men during the entire investigated period, whereas women demonstrated a significant upward trend from 2001 onwards. The results suggest that OCC incidence in Hong Kong appears to be associated with cumulative risk behaviors of the population, despite considerable socio-cultural and environmental changes after the Second World War.

The Italian national trends in smoking initiation and cessation according to gender and education.

PubMed

Sardu, C; Mereu, A; Minerba, L; Contu, P

2009-09-01

OBJECTIVES. This study aims to assess the trend in initiation and cessation of smoking across successive birth cohorts, according to gender and education, in order to provide useful suggestion for tobacco control policy. STUDY DESIGN. The study is based on data from the "Health conditions and resort to sanitary services" survey carried out in Italy from October 2004 to September 2005 by the National Institute of Statistics. Through a multisampling procedure a sample representative of the entire national territory was selected. In order to calculate trends in smoking initiation and cessation, data were stratified for birth cohorts, gender and education level, and analyzed through the life table method. The cumulative probability of smoking initiation, across subsequent generations, shows a downward trend followed by a plateau. This result highlights that there is not a shred of evidence to support the hypothesis of an anticipation in smoking initiation. The cumulative probability of quitting, across subsequent generations, follows an upward trend, highlighting the growing tendency of smokers to become an "early quitter", who give up within 30 years of age. Results suggest that the Italian antismoking approach, for the most part targeted at preventing the initiation of smoking emphasising the negative consequences, has an effect on the early smoking cessation. Health policies should reinforce the existing trend of "early quitting" through specific actions. In addition our results show that men with low education exhibit the higher probability of smoking initiation and the lower probability of early quitting, and therefore should be targeted with special attention.

Recent trends in the variability of halogenated trace gases over the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurst, Dale F.; Bakwin, Peter S.; Elkins, James W.

1998-10-01

Recent trends in the atmospheric variability of seven halogenated trace gases are determined from three years (November 1994 through October 1997) of hourly gas chromatographic measurements at a 610 m tower in North Carolina and 17 months (June 1996 through October 1997) of similar measurements at a 450 m tower in Wisconsin. Production of five of these gases, CCl3F (CFC-11), CCl2F2 (CFC-12), CCl2FCClF2 (CFC-113), CH3CCl3 (methyl chloroform), and CCl4 (carbon tetrachloride), is now strictly regulated in the United States and other developed countries under international legislation. C2Cl4 (tetrachloroethene) and SF6 (sulfur hexafluoride) are currently produced without restriction, but requests for voluntary cutbacks in C2Cl4 emissions have been made, at least in the United States. Atmospheric variability of these gases is examined at several sampling heights on the towers, but trends are deduced using only nighttime data at the top sampling level of each tower to minimize variability driven by local emissions and the diurnal cycle of the planetary boundary layer, leaving regional emissions as the main source of day-to-day variability. Significant downward trends are determined for CFC-12, CFC-113, CH3CCl3, and C2Cl4 variability at both towers, reflecting decreased emissions of these gases in two regions of the United States. Trends in CFC-11, CCl4, and SF6 variability at both towers are not significantly different from zero.

New Visualizations Highlight New Information on the Contrasting Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Trends Since the Late 1970s

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2016-01-01

Month-by-month ranking of 37 years (1979-2015) of satellite-derived sea-ice extents in the Arctic and Antarctic reveals interesting new details in the overall trends toward decreasing sea-ice coverage in the Arctic and increasing sea-ice coverage in the Antarctic. The Arctic decreases are so definitive that there has not been a monthly record high in Arctic sea-ice extents in any month since 1986, a time period during which there have been 75 monthly record lows. The Antarctic, with the opposite but weaker trend toward increased ice extents, experienced monthly record lows in 5 months of 1986, then 6 later monthly record lows scattered through the dataset, with the last two occurring in 2006, versus 45 record highs since 1986. However, in the last three years of the 1979-2015 dataset, the downward trends in Arctic sea-ice extents eased up, with no new record lows in any month of 2013 or 2014 and only one record low in 2015,while the upward trends in Antarctic ice extents notably strengthened, with new record high ice extents in 4 months (August-November) of 2013, in 6 months (April- September) of 2014, and in 3 months (January, April, and May) of 2015. Globally, there have been only 3 monthly record highs since 1986 (only one since 1988), whereas there have been 43 record lows, although the last record lows (in the 1979-2015 dataset) occurred in 2012.

Environmental Change in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone, Northern China: Patterns, Drivers, and Implications.

PubMed

Jiang, Chong; Wang, Fei

2016-01-28

Chengde city is located in the agro-pastoral transitional zone in northern China near the capital city of Beijing, which has experienced large-scale ecological construction in the past three decades. This study quantitatively assessed the environmental changes in Chengde through observation records of water resources, water environment, atmospheric environment, and vegetation activity and investigated the possible causes. From the late 1950s to 2002, the streamflow presented a downward trend induced by climate variability and human activities, with contribution ratios of 33.2% and 66.8%, respectively. During 2001-2012, the days of levels I and II air quality presented clear upward trends. Moreover, the air pollutant concentration was relatively low compared with that in the adjacent areas, which means the air quality has improved more than that in the neighboring areas. The water quality, which deteriorated during 1993-2000, began to improve in 2002. The air and water quality changes were closely related to pollutant emissions induced by anthropogenic activities. During 1982-2012, the vegetation in the southeastern and central regions presented restoration trends, whereas that in the northwestern area showed degradation trends. The pixels with obvious degradation trends correlated significantly with annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. Ecological engineering also played a positive role in vegetation restoration. This analysis can be beneficial to environment managers in the active response and adaptation to the possible effects of future climate change, population growth, and industrial development and can be used to ensure sustainable development and environmental safety.

Regional trends in aquatic recovery from acidification in North America and Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoddard, J.L.; Jeffries, D.S.; Lukewille, A.; Clair, T.A.; Dillon, P.J.; Driscoll, C.T.; Forsius, M.; Johannessen, M.; Kahl, J.S.; Kellogg, J.H.; Kemp, A.; Mannlo, J.; Monteith, D.T.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Patrick, S.; Rebsdorl, A.; Skjelkvale, B.L.; Stainton, M.P.; Traaen, T.; Van Dam, H.; Webster, K.E.; Wleting, J.; Wllander, A.

1999-01-01

Rates of acidic deposition from the atmosphere ('acid rain') have decreased throughout the 1980s and 1990s across large portions of North America and Europe. Many recent studies have attributed observed reversals in surface-water acidification at national and regional scales to the declining deposition. To test whether emissions regulations have led to widespread recovery in surface-water chemistry, we analysed regional trends between 1980 and 1995 in indicators of acidification (sulphate, nitrate and base-cation concentrations, and measured (Gran) alkalinity) for 205 lakes and streams in eight regions of North America and Europe. Dramatic differences in trend direction and strength for the two decades are apparent. In concordance with general temporal trends in acidic deposition, lake and stream sulphate concentrations decreased in all regions with the exception of Great Britain all but one of these regions exhibited stronger downward trends in the 1990s than in the 1980s. In contrast, regional declines in lake and stream nitrate concentrations were rare and, when detected, were very small. Recovery in alkalinity, expected wherever strong regional declines in sulphate concentrations have occurred, was observed in all regions of Europe, especially in the 1990s, but in only one region (of five) in North America. We attribute the lack of recovery in three regions (south/central Ontario, the Adirondack/Catskill mountains and midwestern North America) to strong regional declines in base-cation concentrations that exceed the decreases in sulphate concentrations.

Population surveys in Greenland 1993-2009: temporal trend of PCBs and pesticides in the general Inuit population by age and urbanisation.

PubMed

Bjerregaard, Peter; Pedersen, Henning Sloth; Nielsen, Nina O; Dewailly, Eric

2013-06-01

The purpose of the study was to analyse temporal trends (1993-2009) of the concentrations of organochlorine contaminants (14 congeners of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and 11 pesticides) in the blood of Greenland Inuit according to age and urbanisation. Statistical determinants for the contaminant concentrations included (for PCB congener 153) age (Δr(2)=0.35), marine diet (Δr(2)=0.10), smoking (Δr(2)=0.02), and sex (Δr(2)=0.01) with comparable results for other organochlorine contaminants. After adjustment for age, diet, smoking, and sex a significant decreasing trend was present for all contaminants ranging from 41% for mirex to 56% for hexachlorobenzene. The temporal trend was most pronounced among participants below the age of 65 years. The decrease started later in villages than in towns. The decrease was present in all age groups and in the capital, other towns, and villages. The decrease is probably due to a combination of reduced concentrations of the contaminants in the wildlife and a slight temporal reduction in the consumption of marine mammals. The significant downwards trend of legacy POPs shows that the legislation works but it must be kept in mind that according to the cumulated scientific evidence there are a multitude of non-regulated persistent organic contaminants in the diet as well as high levels of methylmercury. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal reference evapotranspiration changes in humid and semi-arid regions of Iran: past trends and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nouri, Milad; Homaee, Mehdi; Bannayan, Mohammad

2017-06-01

This study was undertaken to investigate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) changes in semi-arid and humid regions of Iran during the past (1966-2010) and future (2011-2099). For detecting possible trend in ET0 over 1966-2010, the Mann-Kendall trend test was employed. The outputs of Hadley Centre coupled model version 3 (HadCM3) and the third generation couple global climate model (CGCM3) under A2, B2, and A1B emission scenarios were also used to simulate the future ET0 changes by statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicated upward trends in annual ET0 during 1966-2010 in the most sites. Furthermore, the significant increasing ET0 trends were identified for 54.5, 18.2, 27.3, 22.7, and 36.3% of studied locations during winter, spring, summer, autumn, and entire year, respectively. Positive trends in ET0 were mostly found in northeast, west, and northwest Iran, and insignificant downward ET0 trends were primarily detected in southwestern and southern stations in 1966-2010. The ET0 changes were attributed to wind speed changes in semi-arid regions and mean temperature changes in humid areas in the past period. An increase in ET0 was projected under all scenarios due mainly to temperature rise and declined relative humidity in the investigated regions from 2011 to 2100. Averaged over all stations, the lowest and highest ET0 increment were, respectively, modeled for autumn and summer using CGCM3 outputs and winter and autumn using HadCM3 outputs. Given significant ET0 increase over the twenty-first century, appropriate adaptive measures are required to reduce negative impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural productions.

[Breast cancer in México: a 10-year trend analysis on incidence and age at diagnosis].

PubMed

Salinas-Martínez, Ana María; Juárez-Ruiz, Abigail; Mathiew-Quirós, Álvaro; Guzmán-De la Garza, Francisco Javier; Santos-Lartigue, Adriana; Escobar-Moreno, César

2014-01-01

Breast cancer is an important public health problem. Some countries have achieved a downward trend while in others, continues ascending. In México, information on incidence and age at diagnosis is isolated in time, and knowledge on trend analysis is lacking. To examine the 2003-2012 trend of the incidence rate and age at diagnosis of breast cancer in the northeast of México. We also analyze the trend of positivity to nodes, hormone receptors and HER2; and its association with age at diagnosis. This is an epidemiological study of breast cancer patients in a tertiary care hospital in Monterrey, México (n = 3,488). Only new cases with a histology report were included; if this was not available, the cytology result was considered. Trend analysis was performed using the JoinPoint regression program Version 3.5. The breast cancer incidence rate increased from 26.7 to 49.8 per 100,000 between 2003 and 2011 (p < 0.05). The adjusted rate showed an annual percentage rate of change of +6.2% (95%CI 4.2, 8.2). The mean age was 55.7 ± 13.7 years and remained stable over time. Nodes, hormone receptors and HER2 positivity rate also remained stable over time. Age < 50 years increased twice the risk for positivity to nodes (OR 2.0, 95%CI 1.4, 2.7), ER-PR- (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4, 2.4) and ER-PR-HER2- (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.5, 2.5). The 10-year analysis showed a significant upward trend. This study represents a first effort in our country, for determining patterns on incidence and age at diagnosis of breast cancer, as well as that of biomarkers.

Detection and estimation trends linked to air quality and mortality on French Riviera over the 1990-2005 period.

PubMed

Sicard, Pierre; Mangin, Antoine; Hebel, Pierre; Malléa, Patrick

2010-03-15

There is a profound relation between human health and well being from the one side and air pollution levels from the other. Air quality in South of France and more specifically in Nice, is known to be bad, especially in summer. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test has been developed for detecting and estimating monotonic trends in the time series and applied in our study at annual values of pollutants air concentrations and mortality. An important objective of many environmental monitoring programs is to detect changes or trends in pollution levels over time. Over the period 1990-2005, concerning the emissions of main pollutants, we obtained significant decreasing trends. By considering the ozone mean values in urban areas over the 1997-2005 period, an increase of 3.0% year(-1) was obtained with annual averages and 3.9% year(-1) with median values. A clear increasing trend for PM(10) ambient concentrations is obtained. In addition, we observed an increase of the Olea (and Grass) pollination season. Over the same period, an annual change rate of +0.31% year(-1) for "airway diseases" and of +2.50% year(-1) for "unknown causes" were identified in the "Alpes Maritimes" county. To see the results, there seems to be a short-term link between the levels of these pollutants and mortality for respiratory causes. The other pollutants concentration showed a downward trend reflecting the reduction policy of the emissions. In addition, we obtained significant decreasing trends concerning the "ischemic heart diseases" (-1.20% year(-1)) and "asthma" (-4.03% year(-1)) categories. No significant gender-related difference was identified for these groups.

Description and assessment of regional sea-level trends and variability from altimetry and tide gauges at the northern Australian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharineiat, Zahra; Deng, Xiaoli

2018-05-01

This paper aims at providing a descriptive view of the low-frequency sea-level changes around the northern Australian coastline. Twenty years of sea-level observations from multi-mission satellite altimetry and tide gauges are used to characterize sea-level trends and inter-annual variability over the study region. The results show that the interannual sea-level fingerprint in the northern Australian coastline is closely related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, with the greatest influence on the Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, and the Timor Sea. The basin average of 14 tide-gauge time series is in strong agreement with the basin average of the altimeter data, with a root mean square difference of 18 mm and a correlation coefficient of 0.95. The rate of the sea-level trend over the altimetry period (6.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) estimated from tide gauges is slightly higher than that (6.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr) from altimetry in the time interval 1993-2013, which can vary with the length of the time interval. Here we provide new insights into examining the significance of sea-level trends by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test is applied to assess if the trends are significant (upward or downward). Apart from a positive rate of sea-level trends are not statistically significant in this region due to the effects of natural variability. The findings suggest that altimetric trends are not significant along the coasts and some parts of the Gulf Carpentaria (14°S-8°S), where geophysical corrections (e.g., ocean tides) cannot be estimated accurately and altimeter measurements are contaminated by reflections from the land.

Role of extratropical cyclones in the recently observed increase in poleward moisture transport into the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villamil-Otero, Gian A.; Zhang, Jing; He, Juanxiong; Zhang, Xiangdong

2018-01-01

Poleward atmospheric moisture transport (AMT) into the Arctic Ocean can change atmospheric moisture or water vapor content and cause cloud formation and redistribution, which may change downward longwave radiation and, in turn, surface energy budgets, air temperatures, and sea-ice production and melt. In this study, we found a consistently enhanced poleward AMT across 60°N since 1959 based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis. Regional analysis demonstrates that the poleward AMT predominantly occurs over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions, contributing about 57% and 32%, respectively, to the total transport. To improve our understanding of the driving force for this enhanced poleward AMT, we explored the role that extratropical cyclone activity may play. Climatologically, about 207 extratropical cyclones move across 60°N into the Arctic Ocean each year, among which about 66 (32% of the total) and 47 (23%) originate from the North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean, respectively. When analyzing the linear trends of the time series constructed by using a 20-year running window, we found a positive correlation of 0.70 between poleward yearly AMT and the integrated cyclone activity index (measurement of cyclone intensity, number, and duration). This shows the consistent multidecadal changes between these two parameters and may suggest cyclone activity plays a driving role in the enhanced poleward AMT. Furthermore, a composite analysis indicates that intensification and poleward extension of the Icelandic low and accompanying strengthened cyclone activity play an important role in enhancing poleward AMT over the North Atlantic region.

The Productivity Dynamics of China's Environmentally Friendly Production Technologies in terms of Wastewater Treatment Techniques

PubMed Central

Yang, Fuxia; Xu, Jiangchuan

2018-01-01

Low economic profit usually reduces the incentive of producers to operate their wastewater treatment technologies effectively. It is necessary to investigate the performance of environmentally friendly production technologies that reduce wastewater discharges and generate economic outputs simultaneously (EPTWs) in China over the past decade. In this paper, we apply the Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index widely used in the field of economics to evaluate the productivity change of EPTWs for 30 administrative provinces in China during 2003–2015. The pathways of the productivity change are further identified by decomposing the productivity index into two components: technological change and technical efficiency change. The results show that China's environmental productivity index associated with wastewater reduction had undergone a downward trend, and evident spatial disparities are observed among the 30 provincial regions. Moreover, the changes of China's environmental productivity over the whole studied period can mainly be attributed to technological progress, while the technical efficiency component has contributed little, although its annual contributing rate is in an increasing trend. PMID:29789803

Climate change, weather and road deaths.

PubMed

Robertson, Leon

2018-06-01

In 2015, a 7% increase in road deaths per population in the USA reversed the 35-year downward trend. Here I test the hypothesis that weather influenced the change in trend. I used linear regression to estimate the effect of temperature and precipitation on miles driven per capita in urbanizedurbanised areas of the USA during 2010. I matched date and county of death with temperature on that date and number of people exposed to that temperature to calculate the risk per persons exposed to specific temperatures. I employed logistic regression analysis of temperature, precipitation and other risk factors prevalent in 2014 to project expected deaths in 2015 among the 100 most populous counties in the USA. Comparison of actual and projected deaths provided an estimate of deaths expected without the temperature increase. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Observation and analysis on skin cancer induced by UVB irradiation using optical coherence tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yunxia; Wu, Shulian; Li, Hui; Zheng, Xiaoxiao

2014-09-01

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) are the prevalent skin cancers, which have a quite high incidence in the white race. In recent years, however, their incidences have been increasing in the yellow race, resulting in a great threat to the public health. According to researches, chronics UVB irradiation (280nm~320nm) is the major culprit of skin cancer in humans. In our study, the model of UVB induced skin cancer was established firstly. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) combined with the histopathology was exploited to monitor the morphologic and histological changes of the process of UVB induced skin cancer. Meanwhile, this canceration process was systematically studied and analyzed from the perspective of tissue optics. The attenuation coefficient (μt) has a rising trend in the epidermis, but which shows a downward trend in the dermis. The results are conducive to understand the process of UVB-induced skin cancer and further be able to provide a reference for medical researchers.

Losing confidence in medicine in an era of medical expansion?

PubMed

Zheng, Hui

2015-07-01

Has the expansion of the medical field inspired more or less confidence in medicine among the American public? This study investigates how confidence in medicine has changed over the past three decades, whether this trend is uniform across social groups and which aspects of medicine are most affected. Data are from repeated cross-sectional U.S. General Social Surveys spanning the years 1973-2008, including the 2002 Doctors and Patients Module and the 1998 Pressing Issues in Health and Medical Care Module. Americans' confidence in medicine has declined continuously over the past three decades, and the extent of this decline did not vary by gender, age group, cohort, or income level. Analysis of differences across socio-demographic groups suggests that confidence in medicine is related to trust in doctors' ethics but different from obedience to doctors' authority. Therefore, the downward trend in confidence in medicine may suggest a decline in public trust in doctors' ethics, but not necessarily a decline in obedience to doctors' authority. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Attributing regional trends of evapotranspiration and gross primary productivity with remote sensing: a case study in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Xingguo; Chen, Xuejuan; Hu, Shi; Liu, Suxia; Xia, Jun

2017-01-01

Attributing changes in evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial for impact and adaptation assessment of the agro-ecosystems to climate change. Simulations with the VIP model revealed that annual ET and GPP slightly increased from 1981 to 2013 over the North China Plain. The tendencies of both ET and GPP were upward in the spring season, while they were weak and downward in the summer season. A complete factor analysis illustrated that the relative contributions of climatic change, CO2 fertilization, and management to the ET (GPP) trend were 56 (-32) %, -28 (25) %, and 68 (108) %, respectively. The decline of global radiation resulted from deteriorated aerosol and air pollution was the principal cause of GPP decline in summer, while air warming intensified the water cycle and advanced the plant productivity in the spring season. Generally, agronomic improvements were the principal drivers of crop productivity enhancement.

Analysis of Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of E-Commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, J.; Zhang, S.

2017-09-01

This paper aims to study the relationship between e-commerce development and geographical characteristics using data of e-commerce, economy, Internet, express delivery and population from 2011 to 2015. Moran's I model and GWR model are applied to analyze the spatial pattern of E-commerce and its influencing factors. There is a growth trend of e-commerce from west to east, and it is obvious to see that e-commerce development has a space-time clustering, especially around the Yangtze River delta. The comprehensive factors caculated through PCA are described as fundamental social productivity, resident living standard and population sex structure. The first two factors have positive correlation with e-commerce, and the intensity of effect increases yearly. However, the influence of population sex structure on the E-commerce development is not significant. Our results suggest that the clustering of e-commerce has a downward trend and the impact of driving factors on e-commerce is observably distinct from year to year in space.

Management of undescended testis may be improved with educational updates and new transferring model.

PubMed

Yi, Wei; Sheng-de, Wu; Lian-Ju, Shen; Tao, Lin; Da-Wei, He; Guang-Hui, Wei

2018-05-24

To investigate whether management of undescended testis (UDT) may be improved with educational updates and new transferring model among referring providers (RPs). The age of orchidopexies performed in Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were reviewed. We then proposed educational updates and new transferring model among RPs. The age of orchidopexies performed after our intervention were collected. Data were represented graphically and statistical analysis Chi-square for trend were used. A total of 1543 orchidopexies were performed. The median age of orchidopexy did not matched the target age of 6-12 months in any subsequent year. Survey of the RPs showed that 48.85% of their recommended age was below 12 months. However, only 25.50% of them would directly make a surgical referral to pediatric surgery specifically at this point. After we proposed educational updates, tracking the age of orchidopexy revealed a statistically significant trend downward. The management of undescended testis may be improved with educational updates and new transferring model among primary healthcare practitioners.

[Research of prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, 1984-2015].

PubMed

Li, F Y; Tan, H Z; Ren, G H; Jiang, Q; Wang, H L

2017-03-10

Objective: To analyze the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, and provide scientific evidence for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Methods: The changes of infection rates of Schistosoma ( S .) japonicum among residents and cattle in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 were analyzed by using dynamic trend diagram; and the time regression model was used to fit the infection rates of S. japonicum , and predict the recent infection rate. Results: The overall infection rates of S. japonicum in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 showed downward trend (95.29% in residents and 95.16% in cattle). By using the linear regression model, the actual values of infection rates in residents and cattle were all in the 95% confidence intervals of the value predicted; and the prediction showed that the infection rates in the residents and cattle would continue to decrease from 2016 to 2020. Conclusion: The prevalence of schistosomiasis was in decline in Hunan. The regression model has a good effect in the short-term prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence.

Mineralogy as a function of depth in the prehistoric Makaopuhi tholeiitic lava lake, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, B.W.; Moore, J.G.

1968-01-01

The electron probe X-ray microanalyzer has been used to determine the compositional variability of the groundmass minerals and glass in 10 specimens from a complete 225-foot section of the prehistoric tholeiitic lava lake of Makaopuhi Crater, Hawaii. The order of beginning of crystallization was: (1) chromite, (2) olivine, (3) augite, (4) plagioclase, (5) pigeonite, (6) iron-titanium oxides and orthopyroxene, (7) alkali feldspar and apatite, and (8) glass. Although the lake is chemically tholeiitic throughout, the occurrence of ferromagnesian minerals is as though there were a gradation from alkali olivine basalt in the upper chill downwards to olivine tholeiite. Groundmass olivine decreases downwards and disappears at about 20 feet. Pigeonite is absent in the uppermost 5??2 feet, then increases in amount down to 20 feet, below which augite and pigeonite coexist in constant 2:1 proportions. Strong zoning and metastable compositions characterize the pyroxenes of the chilled zones, but these features gradually disappear towards the interior of the lake to give way to equilibrium pyroxenes. Relatively homogeneous poikilitic orthopyroxene (??? Ca4Mg70Fe26) occurs in the olivine cumulate zone, having formed partly at the expense of pre-existing olivine, augite, and pigeonite (??? Ca8Mg66Fe26). The growth of orthopyroxene is believed to have been facilitated by the slower cooling rate and higher volatile pressure at depth, and by the rise in Mg/Fe ratio of the liquid due to the partial dissolution of settled olivine. Unlike olivine and pyroxene, feldspar is least zoned in the upper and lower chilled regions. The greatest range of compositional zoning in feldspar occurs at 160 to 190 feet, where it extends continuously from Or1.0Ab22An77 to Or64Ab33An3. The feldspar fractionation trend in the An-Ab-Or triangle gradually shifts with depth toward more "equilibrium" trends, even though the zoning becomes more extreme. The variation with depth in the initial (core) composition of the plagioclase suggests the influence of either slow nucleation and growth (undercooling) or slow diffusion in the liquid, relative to the rate of cooling. Idiomorphic opaque inclusions in olivine phenocrysts are chrome-spinels showing continuous variation from 60 percent chromite to 85 percent ulvospinel and to magnetite-rich spinel. A pre-eruption trend of increasing Al with decreasing Cr can be recognized in chromites from the upper chill. Most of the inclusions show a trend of falling Cr and Al, toward an ulvospinelmagnetite solid solution which is progressively poorer in Usp with depth. This trend was produced by solid state alteration of the chromite inclusions during cooling in the lava lake. Ilmenite (average Ilm91Hm9) coexists with variably oxidized titaniferous magnetite in the basalt groundmass. Estimated oxygen fugacities agree well with other independent determinations in tholeiitic basalt. No sulfide phase has been detected. Fractional crystallization produced a groundmass glass of granitic composition. Average, in percent, is: SiO2, 75.5; Al2O3, 12.5; K2O, 5.7; Na2O, 3.1; CaO, 0.3; MgO, 0.05; total FeO, 1.2; and TiO2, 0.8. Normative Or> Ab. Minor changes in glass composition with depth are consistent with a greater approach towards the granite minimum. Incipient devitrification precluded reliable analysis of glass from the lower half of the section. The SiO2-phase associated with devitrification contains alkalis and Al and is believed to be cristobalite. Needle-like apatite crystals in the groundmass glass are Siand Fe-bearing fluorapatites containing appreciable rare earths (predominantly Ce) and variable Cl. The grain-size and maximum An content of the cores of plagioclase grains were controlled by cooling rate and are at a maximum at the center of the section. The most homogeneous pyroxene (and olivine, Moore and Evans, 1967), most equilibrium pyroxene trends, most abundant alkali feldspar, and most equilibrium feldspar trends are found at 160

Regional Kendall test for trend

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helsel, D.R.; Frans, L.M.

2006-01-01

Trends in environmental variables are often investigated within a study region at more than one site. At each site, a trend analysis determines whether a trend has occurred. Yet often also of interest is whether a consistent trend is evident throughout the entire region. This paper adapts the Seasonal Kendall trend test to determine whether a consistent regional trend occurs in environmental variables.

Upside-down spiders build upside-down orb webs: web asymmetry, spider orientation and running speed in Cyclosa.

PubMed

Nakata, Kensuke; Zschokke, Samuel

2010-10-07

Almost all spiders building vertical orb webs face downwards when sitting on the hubs of their webs, and their webs exhibit an up-down size asymmetry, with the lower part of the capture area being larger than the upper. However, spiders of the genus Cyclosa, which all build vertical orb webs, exhibit inter- and intraspecific variation in orientation. In particular, Cyclosa ginnaga and C. argenteoalba always face upwards, and C. octotuberculata always face downwards, whereas some C. confusa face upwards and others face downwards or even sideways. These spiders provide a unique opportunity to examine why most spiders face downwards and have asymmetrical webs. We found that upward-facing spiders had upside-down webs with larger upper parts, downward-facing spiders had normal webs with larger lower parts and sideways-facing spiders had more symmetrical webs. Downward-facing C. confusa spiders were larger than upward- and sideways-facing individuals. We also found that during prey attacks, downward-facing spiders ran significantly faster downwards than upwards, which was not the case in upward-facing spiders. These results suggest that the spider's orientation at the hub and web asymmetry enhance its foraging efficiency by minimizing the time to reach prey trapped in the web.

Upside-down spiders build upside-down orb webs: web asymmetry, spider orientation and running speed in Cyclosa

PubMed Central

Nakata, Kensuke; Zschokke, Samuel

2010-01-01

Almost all spiders building vertical orb webs face downwards when sitting on the hubs of their webs, and their webs exhibit an up–down size asymmetry, with the lower part of the capture area being larger than the upper. However, spiders of the genus Cyclosa, which all build vertical orb webs, exhibit inter- and intraspecific variation in orientation. In particular, Cyclosa ginnaga and C. argenteoalba always face upwards, and C. octotuberculata always face downwards, whereas some C. confusa face upwards and others face downwards or even sideways. These spiders provide a unique opportunity to examine why most spiders face downwards and have asymmetrical webs. We found that upward-facing spiders had upside-down webs with larger upper parts, downward-facing spiders had normal webs with larger lower parts and sideways-facing spiders had more symmetrical webs. Downward-facing C. confusa spiders were larger than upward- and sideways-facing individuals. We also found that during prey attacks, downward-facing spiders ran significantly faster downwards than upwards, which was not the case in upward-facing spiders. These results suggest that the spider's orientation at the hub and web asymmetry enhance its foraging efficiency by minimizing the time to reach prey trapped in the web. PMID:20462900

Optical Forces on Non-Spherical Nanoparticles Trapped by Optical Waveguides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan Ahmed, Dewan; Sung, Hyung Jin

2011-07-01

Numerical simulations of a solid-core polymer waveguide structure were performed to calculate the trapping efficiencies of particles with nanoscale dimensions smaller than the wavelength of the trapping beam. A three-dimensional (3-D) finite element method was employed to calculate the electromagnetic field. The inlet and outlet boundary conditions were obtained using an eigenvalue solver to determine the guided and evanescent mode profiles. The Maxwell stress tensor was considered for the calculation of the transverse and downward trapping efficiencies. A particle at the center of the waveguide showed minimal transverse trapping efficiency and maximal downward trapping efficiency. This trend gradually reversed as the particle moved away from the center of the waveguide. Particles with larger surface areas exhibited higher trapping efficiencies and tended to be trapped near the waveguide. Particles displaced from the wave input tended to be trapped at the waveguide surface. Simulation of an ellipsoidal particle showed that the orientation of the major axis along the waveguide's lateral z-coordinate significantly influenced the trapping efficiency. The particle dimensions along the z-coordinate were more critical than the gap distance (vertical displacement from the floor of the waveguide) between the ellipsoid particle and the waveguide. The present model was validated using the available results reported in the literature for different trapping efficiencies.

Escaping and repairing behaviors of the termite Odontotermes formosanus (Blattodea: Termitidae) in response to disturbance

PubMed Central

Wen, Yuzhen; Layne, Michael; Sun, Zhaohui; Ma, Tao

2018-01-01

The escaping behavior of termites has been documented under laboratory conditions; however, no study has been conducted in a field setting due to the difficulty of observing natural behaviors inside wood or structures (e.g., nests, tunnels, etc.). The black-winged termite, Odontotermes formosanus (Shiraki), is a subterranean macrotermitine species which builds extensive mud tubes on tree trunks. In the present study, 41 videos (totaling ∼2,700 min) were taken on 22 colonies/subcolonies of O. formosanus after their mud tubes were partially damaged by hand. In general, termites consistently demonstrated three phases of escape, including initiation (wandering near the mud-tube breach), individual escaping (single termites moving downward), and massive, unidirectional escaping flows (groups of termites moving downward). Downward moving and repairing were the dominant behavioral activities of individuals and were significantly more frequent than upward moving, turning/backward moving, or wandering. Interestingly, termites in escaping flows moved significantly faster than escaping individuals. Repairing behavior was observed shortly after the disturbance, and new mud tubes were preferentially constructed from the bottom up. When predators (i.e., ants) were present, however, termites stopped moving and quickly sealed the mud-tube openings by capping the broken ends. Our study provides an interesting example that documents an animal (besides humans) simultaneously carrying out pathway repairs and emergency evacuation without congestion. PMID:29576978

Escaping and repairing behaviors of the termite Odontotermes formosanus (Blattodea: Termitidae) in response to disturbance.

PubMed

Xiong, Hongpeng; Chen, Xuan; Wen, Yuzhen; Layne, Michael; Sun, Zhaohui; Ma, Tao; Wen, Xiujun; Wang, Cai

2018-01-01

The escaping behavior of termites has been documented under laboratory conditions; however, no study has been conducted in a field setting due to the difficulty of observing natural behaviors inside wood or structures (e.g., nests, tunnels, etc.). The black-winged termite, Odontotermes formosanus (Shiraki), is a subterranean macrotermitine species which builds extensive mud tubes on tree trunks. In the present study, 41 videos (totaling ∼2,700 min) were taken on 22 colonies/subcolonies of O. formosanus after their mud tubes were partially damaged by hand. In general, termites consistently demonstrated three phases of escape, including initiation (wandering near the mud-tube breach), individual escaping (single termites moving downward), and massive, unidirectional escaping flows (groups of termites moving downward). Downward moving and repairing were the dominant behavioral activities of individuals and were significantly more frequent than upward moving, turning/backward moving, or wandering. Interestingly, termites in escaping flows moved significantly faster than escaping individuals. Repairing behavior was observed shortly after the disturbance, and new mud tubes were preferentially constructed from the bottom up. When predators (i.e., ants) were present, however, termites stopped moving and quickly sealed the mud-tube openings by capping the broken ends. Our study provides an interesting example that documents an animal (besides humans) simultaneously carrying out pathway repairs and emergency evacuation without congestion.

Intermittent Reconnection Downflow Enhancements In A Simulated Flux Rope Eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kliem, Bernhard; Linton, M. G.

2009-05-01

Supra-arcade downflows in X-ray and EUV flare emissions and post-eruption inflows in coronagraph data have been interpreted to be signatures of the downward reconnection outflow from a vertical (flare) current sheet. These downflows show an intermittent occurrence pattern, indicating that the reconnection is bursty in time or patchy in space, or both. We present MHD simulations of such reconnection in the realistic configuration of a vertical current sheet formed beneath and driven by an erupting flux rope. The reconnection is found to develop bursty outflows, both upward and downward, with the upward outflows generally showing the stronger variablity. While the reconnection starts early in the rise of the flux rope and its peak upward outflow velocity is closely correlated with the rope's rise velocity, the burstiness develops in a clear fashion only as the rope's height has increased from the initial position by about an order of magnitude, so that the current sheet has reached a sufficient vertical extent. The reconnection downflow shows a series of enhancements, each of them starting at a successively greater height from a newly developed magnetic X line. The plasma temporarily accelerated downward in such an enhancement soon turns into a gradual deceleration and then eventually comes to rest on top of previously accelerated plasma. These findings are consistent with the observations of intermittent downflows.

Look Up for Healing: Embodiment of the Heal Concept in Looking Upward.

PubMed

Leitan, N D; Williams, B; Murray, G

2015-01-01

Conceptual processing may not be restricted to the mind. The heal concept has been metaphorically associated with an "up" bodily posture. Perceptual Symbol Systems (PSS) theory suggests that this association is underpinned by bodily states which occur during learning and become instantiated as the concept. Thus the aim of this study was to examine whether processing related to the heal concept is promoted by priming the bodily state of looking upwards. We used a mixed 2x2 priming paradigm in which 58 participants were asked to evaluate words as either related to the heal concept or not after being primed to trigger the concept of looking up versus down (Direction--within subjects). A possible dose-response effect of priming was investigated via allocating participants to two 'strengths' of prime, observing an image of someone whose gaze was upward/downward (low strength) and observing an image of someone whose gaze was upward/downward while physically tilting their head upwards or downwards in accord with the image (high strength) (Strength--between subjects). Participants responded to words related to heal faster than words unrelated to heal across both "Strength" conditions. There was no evidence that priming was stronger in the high strength condition. The present study found that, consistent with a PSS view of cognition, the heal concept is embodied in looking upward, which has important implications for cognition, general health, health psychology, health promotion and therapy.

Evolution of the Equatorial Oscillation in Saturn's Stratosphere Between 2005 and 2010 from Cassini/CIRS Limb Data Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guerlet, S.; Fouchet, T.; Bezard, B.; Flasar, F. M.; Simon-Miller, A. A.

2011-01-01

We present an analysis of thermal infrared spectra acquired in limb viewing geometry by Cassini/CIRS in February 2010. We retrieve vertical profiles of Saturn's stratospheric temperature from 20 hPa to 10 (exp -2) hPa, at 9 latitudes between 20 deg N and 20 deg S. Using the gradient thermal wind equation, we derive a map of the zonal wind field. Both the temperature and the zonal wind vertical profiles exhibit an oscillation in the equatorial region. These results are compared to the temperature and zonal wind maps obtained from 2005-2006 CIRS limb data, when this oscillation was first reported. In both epochs, strong temperature anomalies at the equator (up to 20K) are consistent with adiabatic heating (cooling) due to a sinking (rising) motion at a speed of 0.1 - 0.2 mm/s. Finally, we show that the altitude of the maximum eastward wind has moved downwards by 1.3 scale heights in 4.2 years, hence with a 'phase' speed of approximately 0.5 mm/s. This rate is consistent with the estimated period of 14.7 years for the equatorial oscillation, and requires a local zonal acceleration of 1.1 x 10(exp -6) m.s(exp -2) at the 2.5 hPa pressure level. This downward propagation of the oscillation is consistent with it being driven by absorption of upwardly propagating waves.

[Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality in Costa Rica between the years 1920-2009].

PubMed

Evans-Meza, Ronald; Pérez-Fallas, José; Bonilla-Carrión, Roger

To analyze the trend in mortality from cerebrovascular diseases in Costa Rica and its impact on overall mortality from 1920 to 2009. Crude rates by triennium and quinquennium were obtained. We also obtanied age standardized rates in the age group 35-74 years during the period 1970-2009. Finally we got the death percentage from stroke in relation to overall mortality. The trend for the period 1920-1969 was to the upside (r=0.82, r 2 =0.67, betha 0.30; P≤0.00) whereas for the period 1970 occurred otherwise (r=0.42, r 2 =0.18, betha -0064; P=0.01). Adjusted for the group 35-74 years between 1970-2009 rates decreased by 58.03% was statistically significant trend for both sexes; men r2=0.94, betha: -0.73; women: r2=0.97, betha: 0.95. The maximum percentage of mortality from stroke in relation to the overall mortality was 7.22 in the period 1985-1989 reached down to 5.92% in 2005-2009. In the Latin American context, stroke mortality rates in Costa Rica are low but still represent a serious public health problem by the high mortality, morbidity and disability that they cause, despite a downward trend. Copyright © 2016 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Economic drivers of mineral supply

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Lorie A.; Sullivan, Daniel E.; Sznopek, John L.

2003-01-01

The debate over the adequacy of future supplies of mineral resources continues in light of the growing use of mineral-based materials in the United States. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the quantity of new materials utilized each year has dramatically increased from 161 million tons2 in 1900 to 3.2 billion tons in 2000. Of all the materials used during the 20th century in the United States, more than half were used in the last 25 years. With the Earth?s endowment of natural resources remaining constant, and increased demand for resources, economic theory states that as depletion approaches, prices rise. This study shows that many economic drivers (conditions that create an economic incentive for producers to act in a particular way) such as the impact of globalization, technological improvements, productivity increases, and efficient materials usage are at work simultaneously to impact minerals markets and supply. As a result of these economic drivers, the historical price trend of mineral prices3 in constant dollars has declined as demand has risen. When price is measured by the cost in human effort, the price trend also has been almost steadily downward. Although the United States economy continues its increasing mineral consumption trend, the supply of minerals has been able to keep pace. This study shows that in general supply has grown faster than demand, causing a declining trend in mineral prices.

Geohydrology of the Stockton Formation and cross-contamination through open boreholes, Hatboro Borough and Warminster Township, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, R.A.; Macchiaroli, Paola; Towle, M.T.

1996-01-01

The study area consists of a 9-square-mile area underlain by sedimentary rocks of the middle arkose member of the Stockton Formation of Upper Triassic age. In the Hatboro area, the Stockton Formation strikes approximately N. 65 degrees E. and dps approximately 9 degrees NW. The rocks are chiefly arkosic sandstone and siltstone. Rocks of the Stocton Formation form a complex, heterogeneous, multiaquifer system consisting of a series of gently dipping lithologic units with different hydraulic properties. Most ground water in the unweathered zone moves through a network of interconnecting secondary openigns-fractures, bedding plans, and joints. Ground water is unconfined in the shallower part of the aquifer and semiconfined or confined in the deeper part of the aquifer. Nearly all deep wells in the Stockton Formation are open to several water-bearing zones and are multiaquifer wells. Each water-bearing zone usually has a different hydraulic head. Where differences in hydraulic head exist between water-bearing zones, water in the well bore flows under nonpumping conditions in the direction of decreasing head. Determination of the potential for borehole flow was based on caliper, natural-gamma, single- point-resistance, fluid-resistivity, and (or) fluid-temperature logs that were run in 162 boreholes 31 to 655 feet deep. The direction and rate of borehole-fluid movement were determined in 83 boreholes by the bring-tracing method and in 10 boreholes by use of a heat-pulse flowmeter. Borehole flow was measurable in 65 of the 93 boreholes (70 percent). Fluid movement at rates up to 17 gallons per minute was measured. Downward flow was measured in 36 boreholes, and upward flow was measured in 23 boreholes, not including those boreholes in which two directions of flow were measured. Both upward and downward vertical flow was measured in six boreholes; these boreholes are 396 to 470 feet deep and were among the deepest boreholes logged. Fluid movement was upward in the upper part of the borehole and downward in the lower part of the borehole in two boreholes. Fluid movement wad downward in the upper part of the borehole and upward in the lower part of the borehole in three boreholes. Groung-water contamination by volatile organic compounds (VOC's) is widespread in the study area. Detectable concentrations of VOC's were present in water samples from 24 wells sampled in Hatboro Brough and in water samples for 10 of 14 wells (71 percent) samples in Warminster Township. Samples of borehole flow from nine boreholes in the industrial area of Hatboro were collected for laboratory analysis to estimate the quantity of VOC's in borehole flow. Downward flow was measured in all of these boreholes. Concentrations of TCE, TCA, and 1,1-DCE as great at 5,800, 1,400 and 260 micrograms per liter, respectively, show that some water moving downward in the aquifer through these open boreholes is highly contaminated and that open boreholes may contribute substantially to ground-water contamination. An estimated 14.7 gallons per year of VOC's were moving downward through the nine open boreholes sampled from the contaminated, upper part of the aquifer to the lower part, which is tapped by public supply wells. Borehole geophysical logs were used as a guide to design and construct monitor-well networks at three National Priorities List sites in the area. An open borehole was dirlled, and a suite of geophysical logs was run. Interpretation of geophysical logs enabled the identification of water-bearing zones that produce and receive water; these are zones that should not be connected. From the logs, discrete intervals to be monitored were selected. In the Stockton Formation, the same water-bearing zone may not be intersected in adjacent boreholes, especially if it is a vertical fracture with a diffident magnetic orientation than that of the adjacent boreholes. In most areas of the stockton Formation, depth of water-bearing zones in an are

Relationship of ultrasound signal intensity with SonoVue concentration at body temperature in vitro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xin; Li, Jing; He, Xiaoling; Wu, Kaizhi; Yuan, Yun; Ding, Mingyue

2014-04-01

In this paper, the relationship between image intensity and ultrasound contrast agent (UCA) concentration is investigated. Experiments are conducted in water bath using a silicon tube filled with UCA (SonoVue) at different concentrations (100μl/l to 6000μl/l) at around 37 °C to simulate the temperature in human body. The mean gray-scale intensity within the region of interest (ROI) is calculated to obtain the plot of signal intensity to UCA concentration. The results show that the intensity firstly exhibits a linear increase to the peak at approximately 1500μl/l then appears a downward trend due to the multiple scattering (MS) effects.

Solvent Hold Tank Sample Results for MCU-15-129-130-131: January 2015 Monthly Sample

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fondeur, F. F.; Taylor-Pashow, K. M. L.

2015-02-19

SRNL received one set of SHT samples (MCU-15-129, MCU-15-130, and MCU-15-131), pulled on 01/25/2015 for analysis. The samples were combined and analyzed for composition. Analysis of the composite sample MCU-15-129-130-131 indicated low concentrations of the suppressor (TiDG), of the extractant (MaxCalix), and of the modifier (CS-7SB) in the solvent relative to their nominal values. This analysis confirms a downward trend of these components. No impurities were found in this solvent. The laboratory will continue to monitor the quality of the solvent in particular for any new impurity or degradation of the solvent components.

Detecting Changes in Newspaper Reporting of Suicide after a Statewide Social Marketing Campaign.

PubMed

Abbott, Michele; Ramchand, Rajeev; Chamberlin, Margaret; Marcellino, William

2018-06-01

A social marketing campaign was introduced in California in 2012, promoting media adherence to consensus-based guidelines on reporting about suicide. We examine adherence to these guidelines by applying quantitative scores to articles in California and a national control group in two six-month intervals prior to and following campaign implementation. Utilizing a difference-in-difference approach, we found no significant effect of the campaign, though the type of article content was a significant indicator of the overall score. Findings also demonstrated a nation-wide downward trend in the quality of reporting. Qualitative results suggest a need for more flexible guidelines in light of a technologically driven news culture.

The Meth Project and Teen Meth Use: New Estimates from the National and State Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

PubMed

Anderson, D Mark; Elsea, David

2015-12-01

In this note, we use data from the national and state Youth Risk Behavior Surveys for the period 1999 through 2011 to estimate the relationship between the Meth Project, an anti-methamphetamine advertising campaign, and meth use among high school students. During this period, a total of eight states adopted anti-meth advertising campaigns. After accounting for pre-existing downward trends in meth use, we find little evidence that the campaign curbed meth use in the full sample. We do find, however, some evidence that the Meth Project may have decreased meth use among White high school students. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Water resources in a rapidly growing region-Oakland County, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aichele, Stephen S.

2005-01-01

Despite considerable expansion of urban areas, streamflow characteristics at most sites have not been affected. However, at several sites in areas of the county that are both supplied by ground water and sewered, statistically significant downward trends in low-flow stream discharges have been noted between 1970 and 2003. Stream chemistry, compared to a previous study of county water resources prepared in 1972, has generally improved, with marked decreases in concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfate. Chloride concentrations, however, have increased dramatically in river and lake water across the county. Detectable concentrations of personal-care products, flame retardants, and petroleum fuel compounds were identified at all river sites sampled. 

Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallejo, J. J.; Hejduk, M. D.; Stamey, J. D.

2015-01-01

A simple model is proposed to predict the behavior of Probabilities of Collision (P(sub c)) for conjunction events. The model attempts to predict the location and magnitude of the peak P(sub c) value for an event by assuming the progression of P(sub c) values can be modeled to first order by a downward-opening parabola. To incorporate prior information from a large database of past conjunctions, the Bayes paradigm is utilized; and the operating characteristics of the model are established through a large simulation study. Though the model is simple, it performs well in predicting the temporal location of the peak (P(sub c)) and thus shows promise as a decision aid in operational conjunction assessment risk analysis.

Molecular genetic investigations of root gravitropism and other complex growth behaviors using Arabidopsis and Brachypodium as models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson, Patrick; Barker, Richard; Miller, Nathan; Su, Shih-Hao; Su, Shih-Heng

2016-07-01

When growing on hard surfaces, Arabidopsis roots tend to grown downward, as dictated by positive gravitropism. At the same time, surface-derived stimuli promote a wavy pattern of growth that is superimposed to a rightward root-skewing trend. This behavior is believed to facilitate obstacle avoidance in soil. To better understand these complex behaviors, we have isolated and characterized mutations that affect them. Some of these mutations were shown to affect gravitropism whereas others did not. Within the latter group, most of the mutations affected mechanisms that control anisotropic cell expansion. We have also characterized mutations that affect early steps of gravity signal transduction within the gravity-sensing columella cells of the root cap. Upon reorientation within the gravity field, starch-filled plastids sediment to the bottom-side of these cells, triggering a pathway that leads to re-localization of auxin efflux facilitators to the bottom membrane. Lateral auxin transport toward the bottom flank ensues, leading to gravitropic curvature. Several of the mutations we characterized affect genes that encode proteins associated with the vesicle trafficking pathway needed for this cell polarization. Other mutations were shown to affect components of the plastid outer envelope protein import complex (TOC). Their functional analysis suggests an active role for plastids in gravity signal transduction, beyond a simple contribution as sedimenting gravity susceptors. Because most cultivated crops are monocots, not dicots like Arabidopsis, we have also initiated studies of root-growth behavior with Brachypodium distachyon. When responding to a gravistimulus, the roots of Brachypodium seedlings develop a strong downward curvature that proceeds until the tip reaches a ~50-degree curvature. At that time, an oscillatory tip movement occurs while the root continues its downward reorientation. These root-tip oscillations also occur if roots are allowed to simply grow downward on vertical surfaces, or fully embedded in agar-containing medium. Brachypodium distachyon accessions differ in their gravisensitivity, kinetics of gravitropism and occurrence, periodicity and amplitude of tip oscillations. Mathematical models are being built to fit the data, and used to estimate growth, gravitropism and oscillation parameters for incorporation into Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) algorithms aimed at identifying contributing loci. This work was supported by grants from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and from the National Science Foundation (NSF).

PLASMA DIAGNOSTICS OF AN EIT WAVE OBSERVED BY HINODE/EIS AND SDO/AIA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veronig, A. M.; Kienreich, I. W.; Muhr, N.

2011-12-10

We present plasma diagnostics of an Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) wave observed with high cadence in Hinode/Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) sit-and-stare spectroscopy and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly imagery obtained during the HOP-180 observing campaign on 2011 February 16. At the propagating EIT wave front, we observe downward plasma flows in the EIS Fe XII, Fe XIII, and Fe XVI spectral lines (log T Almost-Equal-To 6.1-6.4) with line-of-sight (LOS) velocities up to 20 km s{sup -1}. These redshifts are followed by blueshifts with upward velocities up to -5 km s{sup -1} indicating relaxation of the plasma behind the wave front.more » During the wave evolution, the downward velocity pulse steepens from a few km s{sup -1} up to 20 km s{sup -1} and subsequently decays, correlated with the relative changes of the line intensities. The expected increase of the plasma densities at the EIT wave front estimated from the observed intensity increase lies within the noise level of our density diagnostics from EIS Fe XIII 202/203 A line ratios. No significant LOS plasma motions are observed in the He II line, suggesting that the wave pulse was not strong enough to perturb the underlying chromosphere. This is consistent with the finding that no H{alpha} Moreton wave was associated with the event. The EIT wave propagating along the EIS slit reveals a strong deceleration of a Almost-Equal-To -540 m s{sup -2} and a start velocity of v{sub 0} Almost-Equal-To 590 km s{sup -1}. These findings are consistent with the passage of a coronal fast-mode MHD wave, pushing the plasma downward and compressing it at the coronal base.« less

Dynamic interaction of a downward plane jet and a cough jet with respect to particle transmission: An analytical and experimental study.

PubMed

Cao, Guangyu; Liu, Shichao; Boor, Brandon E; Novoselac, Atila

2017-08-01

A cough jet can travel beyond the breathing zone of the source person, and thus, infectious viral- and bacterial-laden particles can be transported from the source person to others in close proximity. To reduce the interpersonal transmission of coughed particles, the objective of this study was to analytically and experimentally investigate the performance of downward plane jets with various discharge velocities. Chamber measurements were conducted to examine the interaction between a transient cough jet (discharge velocities of 12 m/sec and 16 m/sec) and a steady downward plane jet (discharge velocities from 1.0-8.5 m/sec) with respect to the transport of and human exposure to coughed particles. The results show that a relatively high-speed cough can easily penetrate a downward plane jet with a discharge velocity of less than 6 m/sec. A downward plane jet with a discharge velocity of 8.5 m/sec can bend the cough jet to a certain extent. In this study, momentum comparison of the cough jet and the downward plane jet shows that the value of personal exposure to coughed particles depends on the ratio of jet momentums. The results show that when the two momentums are equivalent or if the downward plane jet has a greater momentum, the cough jet is deflected downward and does not reach the breathing zone of the target thermal dummy. Using the ratio of the two momentums, it may be estimated whether the transmission of a cough jet can be controlled. A trajectory model was developed based on the ratio of the two momentums of a cough jet and a downward jet and was validated using the experimental data. In addition, the predicted trajectory of the cough jet agreed well with the results from smoke visualization experiments. This model can be used to guide the design of downward plane jet systems for protection of occupants from coughed particles.

Inverse consistent non-rigid image registration based on robust point set matching

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Robust point matching (RPM) has been extensively used in non-rigid registration of images to robustly register two sets of image points. However, except for the location at control points, RPM cannot estimate the consistent correspondence between two images because RPM is a unidirectional image matching approach. Therefore, it is an important issue to make an improvement in image registration based on RPM. Methods In our work, a consistent image registration approach based on the point sets matching is proposed to incorporate the property of inverse consistency and improve registration accuracy. Instead of only estimating the forward transformation between the source point sets and the target point sets in state-of-the-art RPM algorithms, the forward and backward transformations between two point sets are estimated concurrently in our algorithm. The inverse consistency constraints are introduced to the cost function of RPM and the fuzzy correspondences between two point sets are estimated based on both the forward and backward transformations simultaneously. A modified consistent landmark thin-plate spline registration is discussed in detail to find the forward and backward transformations during the optimization of RPM. The similarity of image content is also incorporated into point matching in order to improve image matching. Results Synthetic data sets, medical images are employed to demonstrate and validate the performance of our approach. The inverse consistent errors of our algorithm are smaller than RPM. Especially, the topology of transformations is preserved well for our algorithm for the large deformation between point sets. Moreover, the distance errors of our algorithm are similar to that of RPM, and they maintain a downward trend as whole, which demonstrates the convergence of our algorithm. The registration errors for image registrations are evaluated also. Again, our algorithm achieves the lower registration errors in same iteration number. The determinant of the Jacobian matrix of the deformation field is used to analyse the smoothness of the forward and backward transformations. The forward and backward transformations estimated by our algorithm are smooth for small deformation. For registration of lung slices and individual brain slices, large or small determinant of the Jacobian matrix of the deformation fields are observed. Conclusions Results indicate the improvement of the proposed algorithm in bi-directional image registration and the decrease of the inverse consistent errors of the forward and the reverse transformations between two images. PMID:25559889

Impact of infection control interventions on rates of Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia in National Health Service acute hospitals, East Midlands, UK, using interrupted time-series analysis.

PubMed

Newitt, S; Myles, P R; Birkin, J A; Maskell, V; Slack, R C B; Nguyen-Van-Tam, J S; Szatkowski, L

2015-05-01

Reducing healthcare-associated infection (HCAI) is a UK national priority. Multiple national and regional interventions aimed at reduction have been implemented in National Health Service acute hospitals, but assessment of their effectiveness is methodologically challenging. To assess the effectiveness of national and regional interventions undertaken between 2004 and 2008 on rates of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and meticillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) bacteraemia within acute hospitals in the East Midlands, using interrupted time-series analysis. We used segmented regression to compare rates of MRSA and MSSA bacteraemia in the pre-intervention, implementation, and post-intervention phases for combined intervention packages in eight acute hospitals. Most of the change in MSSA and MRSA rates occurred during the implementation phase. During this phase, there were significant downward trends in MRSA rates for seven of eight acute hospital groups; in four, this was a steeper quarter-on-quarter decline compared with the pre-intervention phase, and, in one, an upward trend in the pre-intervention phase was reversed. Regarding MSSA, there was a significant positive effect in four hospital groups: one upward trend during the pre-intervention phase was reversed, two upward trends plateaued, and in one hospital group an indeterminate trend decreased significantly. However, there were significant increasing trends in quarterly MSSA rates in four hospital groups during the implementation or post-intervention periods. The impact of interventions varied by hospital group but the overall results suggest that national and regional campaigns had a beneficial impact on MRSA and MSSA bacteraemia within the East Midlands. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pneumonia Mortality in Children Aged <5 Years in 56 Countries: A Retrospective Analysis of Trends from 1960 to 2012.

PubMed

Wu, Jie; Yang, Shigui; Cao, Qing; Ding, Cheng; Cui, Yuanxia; Zhou, Yuqing; Li, Yiping; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Xu, Kaijin; Ruan, Bing; Li, Lanjuan

2017-10-30

Pneumonia is now the second leading cause of death for children aged <5 years worldwide. However, analyses of the long-term evolution of under-5 mortality from pneumonia are still scarce in the literature. We aimed to explore long-term trends of under-5 mortality from pneumonia in 56 countries from 1960 to 2012. Data on under-5 mortality from pneumonia were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. Long-term trends were assessed for 56 countries and for 4 national income transition groups. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to detect distinct period segments of long-term trends and estimate the annual percent of changes of each period segment. The average mortality rate from pneumonia for children aged 0-4 years in 56 countries declined from 163.0 per 100000 children (95% confidence interval [CI], 119.4 to 212.8) in 1960 to 9.9 per 100000 children (95% CI, 6.4 to 13.4) in 2012, with an average annual percent of change of -5.6% (95% CI, -7.2% to -3.9%). The temporal trends of childhood mortality were different between national income transition groups. Our findings suggest a striking overall downward trend in under-5 mortality from pneumonia between 1960 and 2012. However, the rate and absolute terms of decline differ by national income transition group. These variable patterns between national income transition groups may inform further intervention setting and priority setting. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatial and temporal variability of fluoride concentrations in groundwater resources of Larestan and Gerash regions in Iran from 2003 to 2010.

PubMed

Amini, Hassan; Haghighat, Gholam Ali; Yunesian, Masud; Nabizadeh, Ramin; Mahvi, Amir Hossein; Dehghani, Mohammad Hadi; Davani, Rahim; Aminian, Abd-Rasool; Shamsipour, Mansour; Hassanzadeh, Naser; Faramarzi, Hossein; Mesdaghinia, Alireza

2016-02-01

There is discrepancy about intervals of fluoride monitoring in groundwater resources by Iranian authorities. Spatial and temporal variability of fluoride in groundwater resources of Larestan and Gerash regions in Iran were analyzed from 2003 to 2010 using a geospatial information system and the Mann-Kendall trend test. The mean concentrations of fluoride for the 8-year period in the eight cities and 31 villages were 1.6 and 2.0 mg/l, respectively; the maximum values were 2.4 and 3.8 mg/l, respectively. Spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal variability of fluoride in overall groundwater resources were relatively constant over the years. However, results of the Mann-Kendall trend test revealed a monotonic trend in the time series of one city and 11 villages for the 8-year period. Specifically, one city and three villages showed positive significant Kendall's Tau values, suggesting an upward trend in fluoride concentrations over the 8-year period. In contrast, seven villages displayed negative significant Kendall's Tau values, arguing for a downward trend in fluoride concentrations over the years. From 2003 to 2010, approximately 52 % of the Larestan and Gerash areas have had fluoride concentrations above the maximum permissible Iranian drinking water standard fluoride level (1.4 mg/l), and about 116,000 people were exposed to such excess amounts. Therefore, our study supports for a close monitoring of fluoride concentrations from health authorities in monthly intervals, especially in villages and cities that showed positive trend in fluoride concentrations. Moreover, we recommend simultaneous implementation of cost-effective protective measures or interventions until a standard fluoride level is achieved.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.

PubMed

Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L; Jarup, Lars; Quinn, Mike; Jick, Susan; Elliott, Paul

2003-01-01

Concern has been expressed in recent years about worsening male reproductive health, possibly mediated by increasing exposures to environmental endocrine-disrupting agents. Trends suggested large increases in cryptorchidism in Britain and the United States between the 1950s and 1980s, although published data on recent trends have been scarce. We examined numbers of orchidopexy procedures, as a marker for cryptorchidism, using routine hospital admission data for England, Wales, and Scotland for fiscal years 1992-1993 through 1998-1999. Annual trends in orchidopexy rates were analyzed by age, in-patient admission versus day case, and geographical region. Orchidopexy rates were also obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) for England to cross-validate the hospital admissions data. Orchidopexy rates for boys 0-14 years old fell by 33% (from 23.5 to 15.8 per 10,000 population) between 1992 and 1998, with the steepest decline (50%) in 5-9-year-olds. The decreasing trend for 0-14-year-olds was evident in every region in England, in Wales, and in Scotland. Rates remained stable for men 15 or more years old, at 0.7 per 10,000. There was a marked shift from in-patient to day-case procedures. Rates from the GPRD showed a similar downward trend to the hospital data. Our findings could represent either an underlying decrease in the frequency of undescended testis or a fairly dramatic improvement in the diagnosis of cryptorchidism--resulting in fewer orchidopexies performed for retractile testis--in Great Britain during the 1990s, or both. Either way, our findings do not support the postulate of a recent worsening of male reproductive health of the scale suggested by some recent commentators on the endocrine disruptor hypothesis.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.

PubMed Central

Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L; Jarup, Lars; Quinn, Mike; Jick, Susan; Elliott, Paul

2003-01-01

Concern has been expressed in recent years about worsening male reproductive health, possibly mediated by increasing exposures to environmental endocrine-disrupting agents. Trends suggested large increases in cryptorchidism in Britain and the United States between the 1950s and 1980s, although published data on recent trends have been scarce. We examined numbers of orchidopexy procedures, as a marker for cryptorchidism, using routine hospital admission data for England, Wales, and Scotland for fiscal years 1992-1993 through 1998-1999. Annual trends in orchidopexy rates were analyzed by age, in-patient admission versus day case, and geographical region. Orchidopexy rates were also obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) for England to cross-validate the hospital admissions data. Orchidopexy rates for boys 0-14 years old fell by 33% (from 23.5 to 15.8 per 10,000 population) between 1992 and 1998, with the steepest decline (50%) in 5-9-year-olds. The decreasing trend for 0-14-year-olds was evident in every region in England, in Wales, and in Scotland. Rates remained stable for men 15 or more years old, at 0.7 per 10,000. There was a marked shift from in-patient to day-case procedures. Rates from the GPRD showed a similar downward trend to the hospital data. Our findings could represent either an underlying decrease in the frequency of undescended testis or a fairly dramatic improvement in the diagnosis of cryptorchidism--resulting in fewer orchidopexies performed for retractile testis--in Great Britain during the 1990s, or both. Either way, our findings do not support the postulate of a recent worsening of male reproductive health of the scale suggested by some recent commentators on the endocrine disruptor hypothesis. PMID:12515691

Secondhand smoke exposure in cars and rooms: trend comparisons among subpopulations of nonsmoking U.S. middle and high school students.

PubMed

McIntire, Russell K; Macy, Jonathan T; Seo, Dong-Chul; Nelson, Ashlyn A; Kolbe, Lloyd J

2014-06-01

Young people in the United States are exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) primarily in 2 settings: homes and cars. Recently, researchers reported that the prevalence of U.S students exposed to SHS in cars decreased from 2000 to 2009; however, comparisons of trends across school levels, gender, and racial/ethnic groups were not assessed. Moreover, no studies have examined trends of exposure to SHS in rooms. We used data from the 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009 waves of the National Youth Tobacco Survey, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of U.S. middle and high school students. For SHS in cars and rooms, we identified exposure trends among nonsmokers from 2000 to 2009 and compared trends across subpopulations with binary logistic regression. We identified significant downward linear trends in SHS in cars and rooms for nearly all measured subpopulations of nonsmoking students from 2000 to 2009. SHS exposure in cars and rooms declined at a significantly greater rate for males than for females. SHS exposure in cars declined at a significantly greater rate for non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks than for NH Whites. SHS exposure in rooms declined at a significantly greater rate for NH Whites than for Hispanics and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders. Although prevalence of exposure to SHS in cars and rooms among nonsmoking U.S. middle and high school students has declined from 2000 to 2009, the rates of decline were not equal across genders and racial/ethnic groups. Identification of these differing rates of exposure can help the public health community advocate for interventions focused on reducing adolescent SHS exposure.

Trends in cancer mortality in Spain: the influence of the financial crisis.

PubMed

Ferrando, Josep; Palència, Laia; Gotsens, Mercè; Puig-Barrachina, Vanessa; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Bartoll, Xavier; Borrell, Carme

2018-02-13

To determine if the onset of the economic crisis in Spain affected cancer mortality and mortality trends. We conducted a longitudinal ecological study based on all cancer-related deaths and on specific types of cancer (lung, colon, breast and prostate) in Spain between 2000 and 2013. We computed age-standardised mortality rates in men and women, and fit mixed Poisson models to analyse the effect of the crisis on cancer mortality and trends therein. After the onset of the economic crisis, cancer mortality continued to decline, but with a significant slowing of the yearly rate of decline (men: RR = 0.987, 95%CI = 0.985-0.990, before the crisis, and RR = 0.993, 95%CI = 0.991-0.996, afterwards; women: RR = 0.990, 95%CI = 0.988-0.993, before, and RR = 1.002, 95%CI = 0.998-1.006, afterwards). In men, lung cancer mortality was reduced, continuing the trend observed in the pre-crisis period; the trend in colon cancer mortality did not change significantly and continued to increase; and the yearly decline in prostate cancer mortality slowed significantly. In women, lung cancer mortality continued to increase each year, as before the crisis; colon cancer continued to decease; and the previous yearly downward trend in breast cancer mortality slowed down following the onset of the crisis. Since the onset of the economic crisis in Spain the rate of decline in cancer mortality has slowed significantly, and this situation could be exacerbated by the current austerity measures in healthcare. Copyright © 2018 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Potential for downward leakage to the Floridan Aquifer, Green Swamp area, central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grubb, H.F.

1977-01-01

A qualitative evaluation of the potential for downward leakage from the surficial sand aquifer to the underlying Floridan aquifer was made for the Green Swamp area (about 870 sq mi) in central Florida. Downward leakage, or recharge, is limited under natural conditions owing to the nearness to land surface of the potentiometric surface of both the sand aquifer and the underlying Floridan aquifer. Continuous cores of the unconsolidated section were obtained at 74 sites in the study area and were evaluated for downward leakage potential based on grain-size distribution. Sand percentage was estimated for each interval or bed from microscopic examination of the core samples. The four maps prepared from this data show sand thickness, clay thickness, relative vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining beds and the relative potential for downward leakage. About 20 percent (178 sq mi) of the area classified has a relatively good potential for downward leakage; almost 50 percent of the area has a relatively poor potential. (Woodard-USGS)

A Statistical Analysis of Loop-Top Motion in Solar Limb Flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holman, Gordon D.; Sui, Linhui; Brosius, D. G.; Dennis, Brian R.

2005-01-01

Previous studies of hot, thermal solar flare loops imaged with the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) have identified several flares for which the loop top shrinks downward early in the impulsive phase and then expands upward later in the impulsive phase (Sui & Holman 2003; Sui, Holman & Dennis 2004; Veronig et al. 2005). This early downward motion is not predicted by flare models. We study a statistical sample of RHESSI flares to assess how common this evolution is and to better characterize it. In a sample of 88 flares near the solar lin$ that show identifiable loop structure in RHESSI images, 66% (58 flares) showed downward loop-top motion followed by upward motion. We therefore conclude that the early downward motion is a frequent characteristic of flare loops. We obtain the distribution of the timing of the change from downward to upward motion relative to flare start and peak times. We also obtain the distributions of downward and upward speeds.

The upper mantle structure of the central Rio Grande rift region from teleseismic P and S wave travel time delays and attenuation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slack, P.D.; Davis, P.M.; Baldridge, W.S.; Olsen, K.H.; Glahn, A.; Achauer, U.; Spence, W.

1996-01-01

The lithosphere beneath a continental rift should be significantly modified due to extension. To image the lithosphere beneath the Rio Grande rift (RGR), we analyzed teleseismic travel time delays of both P and S wave arrivals and solved for the attenuation of P and S waves for four seismic experiments spanning the Rio Grande rift. Two tomographic inversions of the P wave travel time data are given: an Aki-Christofferson-Husebye (ACH) block model inversion and a downward projection inversion. The tomographic inversions reveal a NE-SW to NNE-SSW trending feature at depths of 35 to 145 km with a velocity reduction of 7 to 8% relative to mantle velocities beneath the Great Plains. This region correlates with the transition zone between the Colorado Plateau and the Rio Grande rift and is bounded on the NW by the Jemez lineament, a N52??E trending zone of late Miocene to Holocene volcanism. S wave delays plotted against P wave delays are fit with a straight line giving a slope of 3.0??0.4. This correlation and the absolute velocity reduction imply that temperatures in the lithosphere are close to the solidus, consistent with, but not requiring, the presence of partial melt in the mantle beneath the Rio Grande rift. The attenuation data could imply the presence of partial melt. We compare our results with other geophysical and geologic data. We propose that any north-south trending thermal (velocity) anomaly that may have existed in the upper mantle during earlier (Oligocene to late Miocene) phases of rifting and that may have correlated with the axis of the rift has diminished with time and has been overprinted with more recent structure. The anomalously low-velocity body presently underlying the transition zone between the core of the Colorado Plateau and the rift may reflect processes resulting from the modern (Pliocene to present) regional stress field (oriented WNW-ESE), possibly heralding future extension across the Jemez lineament and transition zone.

Trends in added sugar intake and food sources in a cohort of older Australians: 15 years of follow-up from the Blue Mountains Eye Study.

PubMed

Moshtaghian, H; Louie, J C Y; Charlton, K E; Probst, Y C; Gopinath, B; Mitchell, P; Flood, V M

2017-06-01

The trend of added sugar (AS) intake has not been investigated in the Australian population, including in older adults. The present study aimed to assess trends and food sources of AS intake among a cohort of older Australians during 15 years of follow-up. Dietary data from participants of the Blue Mountains Eye Study (1264 men and 1614 women), aged ≥49 years at baseline, were collected. Dietary intakes were assessed at 5-yearly intervals (1992-94 to 2007-09) using a 145-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). AS content of FFQ food items was estimated using a stepwise systematic method. Trends for AS intake between baseline and the three follow-up periods were assessed using linear mixed modelling. In men, the mean (SEM) percentage of energy provided by AS intake (EAS%) declined from 10.4% (0.1%) at baseline to 9.4% (0.2%) at 15-year follow-up (P trend = 0.028). Women's mean (SEM) EAS% intake at baseline and 15-year follow-up was 9.2% (0.1%) and 8.8% (0.2%), respectively (P trend = 0.550). EAS% intake of men was significantly higher than that of women for 10 years (P < 0.05). Sugar products (table sugar, syrup, jam and honey) were the major sources of AS at all-time points and contributed to more than 40% and 35% of AS intake in men and women, respectively. Intake of sugar products decreased in men during follow-up (P trend < 0.001). An overall downward trend was observed in AS intake in both genders, however, was only significant for men during 15 years of follow-up. Table sugar and sugar-containing spreads represent the major source of AS in this cohort of older Australians. © 2016 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Contrasting rainfall declines in northern and southern Tanzania: Potential differential impacts of west Pacific warming and east Pacific cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, L.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Pedreros, D. H.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.

2015-12-01

Here, we present analysis of a new 1900-2014 rainfall record for the Greater Horn of Africa with high station density (CenTrends), and evaluate potential climate change "hot spots" in Tanzania. We identify recent (1981-2014) downward trends in Tanzanian rainfall, use CenTrends to place these in a longer historical context, and relate rainfall in these regions to decadal changes in global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). To identify areas of concern, we consider the potential food security impacts of the recent rainfall declines and also rapid population growth. Looking forward, we consider what the links to SSTs might mean for rainfall in the next several decades based on SST projections. In addition to CenTrends, we use a variety of geographic data sets, including 1981-2014 rainfall from the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPSv2.0), simulated crop stress from the USGS Geospatial Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (GeoWRSI) model, NOAA Extended Reconstructed SSTs (ERSST v4), SST projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and land cover and population maps from SERVIR, WorldPOP, and CIESIN's Gridded Population of the World. The long-term CenTrends record allows us to suggest an interesting dichotomy in decadal rainfall forcing. During the March to June season, SSTs in the west Pacific appear to be driving post-1980 rainfall reductions in northern Tanzania. In the 2000s, northern Tanzania's densely populated Pangani River, Internal Drainage, and Lake Victoria basins experienced the driest period in more than a century. During summer, negative trends in southern Tanzania appear linked to a negative SST trend in the Nino3.4 region. Since the SST trend in the west (east) Pacific appears strongly influenced by global warming (natural decadal variability), we suggest that water resources in northern Tanzania may face increasing challenges, but that this will be less the case in southern Tanzania.

Lung cancer mortality trends in 36 European countries: secular trends and birth cohort patterns by sex and region 1970-2007.

PubMed

Bray, Freddie Ian; Weiderpass, Elisabete

2010-03-15

Smoking is a major contributor to all-cause mortality in Europe and accounts for one-fifth of the cancer-related deaths. Monitoring the tobacco epidemic via an analysis of lung cancer trends is essential in helping countries arrest the effects of tobacco epidemic in the region. The study aims to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the temporal patterns of lung cancer mortality in Europe, emphasizing country- and sex-specific differences. National lung cancer mortality data were extracted from the WHO mortality databank by age, sex, year of death (1970-2007) for 36 countries in Europe. Trends in lung cancer mortality in men have tended to decrease in many European countries during the last two decades, particularly in North and Western Europe. Among women, mortality rates are still increasing in many countries, although in a few populations, rates are beginning to stabilize, notably in the high-risk countries within Eastern Europe (Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic), and in Northern Europe (Denmark, Iceland and the United Kingdom). Men and women are clearly in very different phases of the smoking epidemic, and, as reflected in the mortality rates by birth cohort, the stage varies widely by country within each European region. That lung cancer mortality trends in men are on a downwards path in most European countries while female rates continue to rise, points to an urgent need for national and European prevention strategies that target tobacco cessation and prevention among European women.

Brain cancer incidence trends in relation to cellular telephone use in the United States.

PubMed

Inskip, Peter D; Hoover, Robert N; Devesa, Susan S

2010-11-01

The use of cellular telephones has grown explosively during the past two decades, and there are now more than 279 million wireless subscribers in the United States. If cellular phone use causes brain cancer, as some suggest, the potential public health implications could be considerable. One might expect the effects of such a prevalent exposure to be reflected in general population incidence rates, unless the induction period is very long or confined to very long-term users. To address this issue, we examined temporal trends in brain cancer incidence rates in the United States, using data collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Log-linear models were used to estimate the annual percent change in rates among whites. With the exception of the 20-29-year age group, the trends for 1992-2006 were downward or flat. Among those aged 20-29 years, there was a statistically significant increasing trend between 1992 and 2006 among females but not among males. The recent trend in 20-29-year-old women was driven by a rising incidence of frontal lobe cancers. No increases were apparent for temporal or parietal lobe cancers, or cancers of the cerebellum, which involve the parts of the brain that would be more highly exposed to radiofrequency radiation from cellular phones. Frontal lobe cancer rates also rose among 20-29-year-old males, but the increase began earlier than among females and before cell phone use was highly prevalent. Overall, these incidence data do not provide support to the view that cellular phone use causes brain cancer.

Environmental Change in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone, Northern China: Patterns, Drivers, and Implications

PubMed Central

Jiang, Chong; Wang, Fei

2016-01-01

Chengde city is located in the agro–pastoral transitional zone in northern China near the capital city of Beijing, which has experienced large-scale ecological construction in the past three decades. This study quantitatively assessed the environmental changes in Chengde through observation records of water resources, water environment, atmospheric environment, and vegetation activity and investigated the possible causes. From the late 1950s to 2002, the streamflow presented a downward trend induced by climate variability and human activities, with contribution ratios of 33.2% and 66.8%, respectively. During 2001–2012, the days of levels I and II air quality presented clear upward trends. Moreover, the air pollutant concentration was relatively low compared with that in the adjacent areas, which means the air quality has improved more than that in the neighboring areas. The water quality, which deteriorated during 1993–2000, began to improve in 2002. The air and water quality changes were closely related to pollutant emissions induced by anthropogenic activities. During 1982–2012, the vegetation in the southeastern and central regions presented restoration trends, whereas that in the northwestern area showed degradation trends. The pixels with obvious degradation trends correlated significantly with annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. Ecological engineering also played a positive role in vegetation restoration. This analysis can be beneficial to environment managers in the active response and adaptation to the possible effects of future climate change, population growth, and industrial development and can be used to ensure sustainable development and environmental safety. PMID:26828508

Falling caesarean section rate and improving intra-partum outcomes: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Amin, Pina; Zaher, Summia; Penketh, Richard; Cherian, Sobha; Collis, Rachel E; Sanders, Julia; Bhal, Kiron

2018-02-19

To evaluate caesarean section (CS) rates and moderate to severe hypoxaemic ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE) rates with other core intra-partum outcomes following reconfiguration of maternity services in Cardiff, South Wales, UK. Cohort study of births from 2006 to 2015. A University tertiary referral centre for foetal and maternal medicine with 6000 births/year, University Hospital of Wales, United Kingdom. Data relating to births from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2015 were extracted from the computerized maternity database on a yearly basis. Case notes of all mothers and babies for the same duration were hand searched for documentation of HIE. HIE data was also collected prospectively by neonatologist (SC) and obstetrician (PA). Incidence of caesarean section births, babies with moderate to severe HIE, instrumental vaginal births, obstetric anal sphincter injuries (OASIS) associated with instrumental delivery, and major post-partum haemorrhage (MPPH) of 2500 mL or more. During this 10-year period, a downward trend in emergency CS rate was seen from 15.6% in 2006 to 10.5% in 2015, reducing total CS rate from 25.5% in 2006 to 21.2% in 2015. A downward trend in the incidence of moderate and severe HIE was seen over the same period. There was an increase in operative vaginal births (OVB) from 12.8% to 15%. The rate of spontaneous vaginal births (SVB) remained stable. The incidence of OASIS remained constant and MPPH rate has fallen. Following amalgamation of two medium sized obstetric units and the opening of a Midwifery Led Unit (MLU), core intrapartum outcomes have improved. Contributing factors are the introduction of regular multidisciplinary training with enhanced team working, compulsory education for obstetricians and midwives on cardiotocograph (CTG) interpretation, increased consultant presence on delivery suite, robust risk management systems and broad multidisciplinary agreement on clinical guidelines promoting vaginal birth.