[The effect of tobacco prices on consumption: a time series data analysis for Mexico].

PubMed

Olivera-Chávez, Rosa Itandehui; Cermeño-Bazán, Rodolfo; de Miera-Juárez, Belén Sáenz; Jiménez-Ruiz, Jorge Alberto; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam

2010-01-01

To estimate the price elasticity of the demand for cigarettes in Mexico based on data sources and a methodology different from the ones used in previous studies on the topic. Quarterly time series of consumption, income and price for the time period 1994 to 2005 were used. A long-run demand model was estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the existence of a cointegration relationship was investigated. Also, a model using Dinamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) was estimated to correct for potential endogeneity of independent variables and autocorrelation of the residuals. DOLS estimates showed that a 10% increase in cigarette prices could reduce consumption in 2.5% (p<0.05) and increase government revenue in 16.11%. The results confirmed the effectiveness of taxes as an instrument for tobacco control in Mexico. An increase in taxes can be used to increase cigarette prices and therefore to reduce consumption and increase government revenue.

Re-estimating temperature-dependent consumption parameters in bioenergetics models for juvenile Chinook salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plumb, John M.; Moffitt, Christine M.

2015-01-01

Researchers have cautioned against the borrowing of consumption and growth parameters from other species and life stages in bioenergetics growth models. In particular, the function that dictates temperature dependence in maximum consumption (Cmax) within the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha produces estimates that are lower than those measured in published laboratory feeding trials. We used published and unpublished data from laboratory feeding trials with subyearling Chinook Salmon from three stocks (Snake, Nechako, and Big Qualicum rivers) to estimate and adjust the model parameters for temperature dependence in Cmax. The data included growth measures in fish ranging from 1.5 to 7.2 g that were held at temperatures from 14°C to 26°C. Parameters for temperature dependence in Cmax were estimated based on relative differences in food consumption, and bootstrapping techniques were then used to estimate the error about the parameters. We found that at temperatures between 17°C and 25°C, the current parameter values did not match the observed data, indicating that Cmax should be shifted by about 4°C relative to the current implementation under the bioenergetics model. We conclude that the adjusted parameters for Cmax should produce more accurate predictions from the bioenergetics model for subyearling Chinook Salmon.

Fuel Burn Estimation Using Real Track Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterji, Gano B.

2011-01-01

A procedure for estimating fuel burned based on actual flight track data, and drag and fuel-flow models is described. The procedure consists of estimating aircraft and wind states, lift, drag and thrust. Fuel-flow for jet aircraft is determined in terms of thrust, true airspeed and altitude as prescribed by the Base of Aircraft Data fuel-flow model. This paper provides a theoretical foundation for computing fuel-flow with most of the information derived from actual flight data. The procedure does not require an explicit model of thrust and calibrated airspeed/Mach profile which are typically needed for trajectory synthesis. To validate the fuel computation method, flight test data provided by the Federal Aviation Administration were processed. Results from this method show that fuel consumed can be estimated within 1% of the actual fuel consumed in the flight test. Next, fuel consumption was estimated with simplified lift and thrust models. Results show negligible difference with respect to the full model without simplifications. An iterative takeoff weight estimation procedure is described for estimating fuel consumption, when takeoff weight is unavailable, and for establishing fuel consumption uncertainty bounds. Finally, the suitability of using radar-based position information for fuel estimation is examined. It is shown that fuel usage could be estimated within 5.4% of the actual value using positions reported in the Airline Situation Display to Industry data with simplified models and iterative takeoff weight computation.

Data-driven fuel consumption estimation: A multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yuche; Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey

Providing guidance and information to drivers to help them make fuel-efficient route choices remains an important and effective strategy in the near term to reduce fuel consumption from the transportation sector. One key component in implementing this strategy is a fuel-consumption estimation model. In this paper, we developed a mesoscopic fuel consumption estimation model that can be implemented into an eco-routing system. Our proposed model presents a framework that utilizes large-scale, real-world driving data, clusters road links by free-flow speed and fits one statistical model for each of cluster. This model includes predicting variables that were rarely or never consideredmore » before, such as free-flow speed and number of lanes. We applied the model to a real-world driving data set based on a global positioning system travel survey in the Philadelphia-Camden-Trenton metropolitan area. Results from the statistical analyses indicate that the independent variables we chose influence the fuel consumption rates of vehicles. But the magnitude and direction of the influences are dependent on the type of road links, specifically free-flow speeds of links. Here, a statistical diagnostic is conducted to ensure the validity of the models and results. Although the real-world driving data we used to develop statistical relationships are specific to one region, the framework we developed can be easily adjusted and used to explore the fuel consumption relationship in other regions.« less

Data-driven fuel consumption estimation: A multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

DOE PAGES

Chen, Yuche; Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey; ...

2017-08-12

Providing guidance and information to drivers to help them make fuel-efficient route choices remains an important and effective strategy in the near term to reduce fuel consumption from the transportation sector. One key component in implementing this strategy is a fuel-consumption estimation model. In this paper, we developed a mesoscopic fuel consumption estimation model that can be implemented into an eco-routing system. Our proposed model presents a framework that utilizes large-scale, real-world driving data, clusters road links by free-flow speed and fits one statistical model for each of cluster. This model includes predicting variables that were rarely or never consideredmore » before, such as free-flow speed and number of lanes. We applied the model to a real-world driving data set based on a global positioning system travel survey in the Philadelphia-Camden-Trenton metropolitan area. Results from the statistical analyses indicate that the independent variables we chose influence the fuel consumption rates of vehicles. But the magnitude and direction of the influences are dependent on the type of road links, specifically free-flow speeds of links. Here, a statistical diagnostic is conducted to ensure the validity of the models and results. Although the real-world driving data we used to develop statistical relationships are specific to one region, the framework we developed can be easily adjusted and used to explore the fuel consumption relationship in other regions.« less

A new method for estimating the usual intake of episodically-consumed foods with application to their distribution

PubMed Central

Midthune, Douglas; Dodd, Kevin W.; Freedman, Laurence S.; Krebs-Smith, Susan M.; Subar, Amy F.; Guenther, Patricia M.; Carroll, Raymond J.; Kipnis, Victor

2007-01-01

Objective We propose a new statistical method that uses information from two 24-hour recalls (24HRs) to estimate usual intake of episodically-consumed foods. Statistical Analyses Performed The method developed at the National Cancer Institute (NCI) accommodates the large number of non-consumption days that arise with foods by separating the probability of consumption from the consumption-day amount, using a two-part model. Covariates, such as sex, age, race, or information from a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), may supplement the information from two or more 24HRs using correlated mixed model regression. The model allows for correlation between the probability of consuming a food on a single day and the consumption-day amount. Percentiles of the distribution of usual intake are computed from the estimated model parameters. Results The Eating at America's Table Study (EATS) data are used to illustrate the method to estimate the distribution of usual intake for whole grains and dark green vegetables for men and women and the distribution of usual intakes of whole grains by educational level among men. A simulation study indicates that the NCI method leads to substantial improvement over existing methods for estimating the distribution of usual intake of foods. Applications/Conclusions The NCI method provides distinct advantages over previously proposed methods by accounting for the correlation between probability of consumption and amount consumed and by incorporating covariate information. Researchers interested in estimating the distribution of usual intakes of foods for a population or subpopulation are advised to work with a statistician and incorporate the NCI method in analyses. PMID:17000190

Using GIS-based methods and lidar data to estimate rooftop solar technical potential in US cities

DOE PAGES

Margolis, Robert; Gagnon, Pieter; Melius, Jennifer; ...

2017-07-06

Here, we estimate the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) for select US cities by combining light detection and ranging (lidar) data, a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems, and modeling of PV electricity generation. We find that rooftop PV's ability to meet estimated city electricity consumption varies widely - from meeting 16% of annual consumption (in Washington, DC) to meeting 88% (in Mission Viejo, CA). Important drivers include average rooftop suitability, household footprint/per-capita roof space, the quality of the solar resource, and the city's estimated electricity consumption. In addition to city-wide results,more » we also estimate the ability of aggregations of households to offset their electricity consumption with PV. In a companion article, we will use statistical modeling to extend our results and estimate national rooftop PV technical potential. In addition, our publically available data and methods may help policy makers, utilities, researchers, and others perform customized analyses to meet their specific needs.« less

Using GIS-based methods and lidar data to estimate rooftop solar technical potential in US cities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Margolis, Robert; Gagnon, Pieter; Melius, Jennifer

Here, we estimate the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) for select US cities by combining light detection and ranging (lidar) data, a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems, and modeling of PV electricity generation. We find that rooftop PV's ability to meet estimated city electricity consumption varies widely - from meeting 16% of annual consumption (in Washington, DC) to meeting 88% (in Mission Viejo, CA). Important drivers include average rooftop suitability, household footprint/per-capita roof space, the quality of the solar resource, and the city's estimated electricity consumption. In addition to city-wide results,more » we also estimate the ability of aggregations of households to offset their electricity consumption with PV. In a companion article, we will use statistical modeling to extend our results and estimate national rooftop PV technical potential. In addition, our publically available data and methods may help policy makers, utilities, researchers, and others perform customized analyses to meet their specific needs.« less

Estimation of cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen consumption using combined multiwavelength photoacoustic microscopy and Doppler microultrasound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Yan; Zemp, Roger

2018-01-01

The metabolic rate of oxygen consumption is an important metric of tissue oxygen metabolism and is especially critical in the brain, yet few methods are available for measuring it. We use a custom combined photoacoustic-microultrasound system and demonstrate cerebral oxygen consumption estimation in vivo. In particular, the cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen consumption was estimated in a murine model during variation of inhaled oxygen from hypoxia to hyperoxia. The hypothesis of brain autoregulation was confirmed with our method even though oxygen saturation and flow in vessels changed.

Per Capita Alcohol Consumption and Suicide Rates in the U.S., 1950-2002

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landberg, Jonas

2009-01-01

The aim of this paper was to estimate how suicide rates in the United States are affected by changes in per capita consumption during the postwar period. The analysis included Annual suicide rates and per capita alcohol consumption data (total and beverage specific) for the period 1950-2002. Gender- and age-specific models were estimated using the…

Estimation of Agricultural Water Consumption from Meteorological and Yield Data: A Case Study of Hebei, North China

PubMed Central

Yuan, Zaijian; Shen, Yanjun

2013-01-01

Over-exploitation of groundwater resources for irrigated grain production in Hebei province threatens national grain food security. The objective of this study was to quantify agricultural water consumption (AWC) and irrigation water consumption in this region. A methodology to estimate AWC was developed based on Penman-Monteith method using meteorological station data (1984–2008) and existing actual ET (2002–2008) data which estimated from MODIS satellite data through a remote sensing ET model. The validation of the model using the experimental plots (50 m2) data observed from the Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences, showed the average deviation of the model was −3.7% for non-rainfed plots. The total AWC and irrigation water (mainly groundwater) consumption for Hebei province from 1984–2008 were then estimated as 864 km3 and 139 km3, respectively. In addition, we found the AWC has significantly increased during the past 25 years except for a few counties located in mountainous regions. Estimations of net groundwater consumption for grain food production within the plain area of Hebei province in the past 25 years accounted for 113 km3 which could cause average groundwater decrease of 7.4 m over the plain. The integration of meteorological and satellite data allows us to extend estimation of actual ET beyond the record available from satellite data, and the approach could be applicable in other regions globally where similar data are available. PMID:23516537

Electric Power Consumption Coefficients for U.S. Industries: Regional Estimation and Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo

Economic activity relies on electric power provided by electrical generation, transmission, and distribution systems. This paper presents a method developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to estimate electric power consumption by different industries in the United States. Results are validated through comparisons with existing literature and benchmarking data sources. We also discuss the limitations and applications of the presented method, such as estimating indirect electric power consumption and assessing the economic impact of power outages based on input-output economic models.

Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats

PubMed Central

Tennant, David; Gosling, John Paul

2015-01-01

Vegetable oils and fats make up a significant part of the energy intake in typical European diets. However, their use as ingredients in a diverse range of different foods means that their consumption is often hidden, especially when oils and fats are used for cooking. As a result, there are no reliable estimates of the consumption of different vegetable oils and fats in the diet of European consumers for use in, for example, nutritional assessments or chemical risk assessments. We have developed an innovative model to estimate the consumption of vegetable oils and fats by European Union consumers using the European Union consumption databases and elements of probabilistic modelling. A key feature of the approach is the assessment of uncertainty in the modelling assumptions that can be used to build user confidence and to guide future development. PMID:26160467

Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats.

PubMed

Tennant, David; Gosling, John Paul

2015-01-01

Vegetable oils and fats make up a significant part of the energy intake in typical European diets. However, their use as ingredients in a diverse range of different foods means that their consumption is often hidden, especially when oils and fats are used for cooking. As a result, there are no reliable estimates of the consumption of different vegetable oils and fats in the diet of European consumers for use in, for example, nutritional assessments or chemical risk assessments. We have developed an innovative model to estimate the consumption of vegetable oils and fats by European Union consumers using the European Union consumption databases and elements of probabilistic modelling. A key feature of the approach is the assessment of uncertainty in the modelling assumptions that can be used to build user confidence and to guide future development.

Accessing and constructing driving data to develop fuel consumption forecast model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashita, Rei-Jo; Yao, Hsiu-Hsen; Hung, Shih-Wei; Hackman, Acquah

2018-02-01

In this study, we develop a forecasting models, to estimate fuel consumption based on the driving behavior, in which vehicles and routes are known. First, the driving data are collected via telematics and OBDII. Then, the driving fuel consumption formula is used to calculate the estimate fuel consumption, and driving behavior indicators are generated for analysis. Based on statistical analysis method, the driving fuel consumption forecasting model is constructed. Some field experiment results were done in this study to generate hundreds of driving behavior indicators. Based on data mining approach, the Pearson coefficient correlation analysis is used to filter highly fuel consumption related DBIs. Only highly correlated DBI will be used in the model. These DBIs are divided into four classes: speed class, acceleration class, Left/Right/U-turn class and the other category. We then use K-means cluster analysis to group to the driver class and the route class. Finally, more than 12 aggregate models are generated by those highly correlated DBIs, using the neural network model and regression analysis. Based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to evaluate from the developed AMs. The best MAPE values among these AM is below 5%.

Illicit and pharmaceutical drug consumption estimated via wastewater analysis. Part B: placing back-calculations in a formal statistical framework.

PubMed

Jones, Hayley E; Hickman, Matthew; Kasprzyk-Hordern, Barbara; Welton, Nicky J; Baker, David R; Ades, A E

2014-07-15

Concentrations of metabolites of illicit drugs in sewage water can be measured with great accuracy and precision, thanks to the development of sensitive and robust analytical methods. Based on assumptions about factors including the excretion profile of the parent drug, routes of administration and the number of individuals using the wastewater system, the level of consumption of a drug can be estimated from such measured concentrations. When presenting results from these 'back-calculations', the multiple sources of uncertainty are often discussed, but are not usually explicitly taken into account in the estimation process. In this paper we demonstrate how these calculations can be placed in a more formal statistical framework by assuming a distribution for each parameter involved, based on a review of the evidence underpinning it. Using a Monte Carlo simulations approach, it is then straightforward to propagate uncertainty in each parameter through the back-calculations, producing a distribution for instead of a single estimate of daily or average consumption. This can be summarised for example by a median and credible interval. To demonstrate this approach, we estimate cocaine consumption in a large urban UK population, using measured concentrations of two of its metabolites, benzoylecgonine and norbenzoylecgonine. We also demonstrate a more sophisticated analysis, implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Our model allows the two metabolites to simultaneously inform estimates of daily cocaine consumption and explicitly allows for variability between days. After accounting for this variability, the resulting credible interval for average daily consumption is appropriately wider, representing additional uncertainty. We discuss possibilities for extensions to the model, and whether analysis of wastewater samples has potential to contribute to a prevalence model for illicit drug use. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Illicit and pharmaceutical drug consumption estimated via wastewater analysis. Part B: Placing back-calculations in a formal statistical framework

PubMed Central

Jones, Hayley E.; Hickman, Matthew; Kasprzyk-Hordern, Barbara; Welton, Nicky J.; Baker, David R.; Ades, A.E.

2014-01-01

Concentrations of metabolites of illicit drugs in sewage water can be measured with great accuracy and precision, thanks to the development of sensitive and robust analytical methods. Based on assumptions about factors including the excretion profile of the parent drug, routes of administration and the number of individuals using the wastewater system, the level of consumption of a drug can be estimated from such measured concentrations. When presenting results from these ‘back-calculations’, the multiple sources of uncertainty are often discussed, but are not usually explicitly taken into account in the estimation process. In this paper we demonstrate how these calculations can be placed in a more formal statistical framework by assuming a distribution for each parameter involved, based on a review of the evidence underpinning it. Using a Monte Carlo simulations approach, it is then straightforward to propagate uncertainty in each parameter through the back-calculations, producing a distribution for instead of a single estimate of daily or average consumption. This can be summarised for example by a median and credible interval. To demonstrate this approach, we estimate cocaine consumption in a large urban UK population, using measured concentrations of two of its metabolites, benzoylecgonine and norbenzoylecgonine. We also demonstrate a more sophisticated analysis, implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Our model allows the two metabolites to simultaneously inform estimates of daily cocaine consumption and explicitly allows for variability between days. After accounting for this variability, the resulting credible interval for average daily consumption is appropriately wider, representing additional uncertainty. We discuss possibilities for extensions to the model, and whether analysis of wastewater samples has potential to contribute to a prevalence model for illicit drug use. PMID:24636801

Bioenergetics modeling of the annual consumption of zooplankton by pelagic fish feeding in the Northeast Atlantic

PubMed Central

Utne, Kjell Rong; Jansen, Teunis; Huse, Geir

2018-01-01

The present study uses bioenergetics modeling to estimate the annual consumption of the main zooplankton groups by some of the most commercially important planktivorous fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, namely Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) and NEA mackerel (Scomber scombrus). The data was obtained from scientific surveys in the main feeding area (Norwegian Sea) in the period 2005–2010. By incorporating novel information about ambient temperature, seasonal growth and changes in the diet from stomach content analyses, annual consumption of the different zooplankton groups by pelagic fish is estimated. The present study estimates higher consumption estimates than previous studies for the three species and suggests that fish might have a greater impact on the zooplankton community as foragers. This way, NEA mackerel, showing the highest daily consumption rates, and NSS herring, annually consume around 10 times their total biomass, whereas blue whiting consume about 6 times their biomass in zooplankton. The three species were estimated to consume an average of 135 million (M) tonnes of zooplankton each year, consisting of 53–85 M tonnes of copepods, 20–32 M tonnes of krill, 8–42 M tonnes of appendicularians and 0.2–1.2 M tonnes of fish, depending on the year. For NSS herring and NEA mackerel the main prey groups are calanoids and appendicularians, showing a peak in consumption during June and June–July, respectively, and suggesting high potential for inter-specific feeding competition between these species. In contrast, blue whiting maintain a low consumption rate from April to September, consuming mainly larger euphausiids. Our results suggest that the three species can coexist regardless of their high abundance, zooplankton consumption rates and overlapping diet. Accordingly, the species might have niche segregation, as they are species specific, showing annual and inter-annual variability in total consumption of the different prey species. These estimates and their inter-annual and inter-specific variation are fundamental for understanding fundamental pelagic predator-prey interactions as well as to inform advanced multispecies ecosystem models. PMID:29293577

Modeling Seasonality in Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Fossil Fuel Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, J. S.; Andres, R. J.

2004-05-01

Using United States data, a method is developed to estimate the monthly consumption of solid, liquid and gaseous fossil fuels using monthly sales data to estimate the relative monthly proportions of the total annual national fossil fuel use. These proportions are then used to estimate the total monthly carbon dioxide emissions for each state. From these data, the goal is to develop mathematical models that describe the seasonal flux in consumption for each type of fuel, as well as the total emissions for the nation. The time series models have two components. First, the general long-term yearly trend is determined with regression models for the annual totals. After removing the general trend, two alternatives are considered for modeling the seasonality. The first alternative uses the mean of the monthly proportions to predict the seasonal distribution. Because the seasonal patterns are fairly consistent in the United States, this is an effective modeling technique. Such regularity, however, may not be present with data from other nations. Therefore, as a second alternative, an ordinary least squares autoregressive model is used. This model is chosen for its ability to accurately describe dependent data and for its predictive capacity. It also has a meaningful interpretation, as each coefficient in the model quantifies the dependency for each corresponding time lag. Most importantly, it is dynamic, and able to adapt to anomalies and changing patterns. The order of the autoregressive model is chosen by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), which minimizes the predicted variance for all models of increasing complexity. To model the monthly fuel consumption, the annual trend is combined with the seasonal model. The models for each fuel type are then summed together to predict the total carbon dioxide emissions. The prediction error is estimated with the root mean square error (RMSE) from the actual estimated emission values. Overall, the models perform very well, with relative RMSE less than 10% for all fuel types, and under 5% for the national total emissions. Development of successful models is important to better understand and predict global environmental impacts from fossil fuel consumption.

Estimating the global public health implications of electricity and coal consumption.

PubMed

Gohlke, Julia M; Thomas, Reuben; Woodward, Alistair; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Prüss-Üstün, Annette; Hales, Simon; Portier, Christopher J

2011-06-01

The growing health risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions highlight the need for new energy policies that emphasize efficiency and low-carbon energy intensity. We assessed the relationships among electricity use, coal consumption, and health outcomes. Using time-series data sets from 41 countries with varying development trajectories between 1965 and 2005, we developed an autoregressive model of life expectancy (LE) and infant mortality (IM) based on electricity consumption, coal consumption, and previous year's LE or IM. Prediction of health impacts from the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated air pollution emissions health impact model for coal-fired power plants was compared with the time-series model results. The time-series model predicted that increased electricity consumption was associated with reduced IM for countries that started with relatively high IM (> 100/1,000 live births) and low LE (< 57 years) in 1965, whereas LE was not significantly associated with electricity consumption regardless of IM and LE in 1965. Increasing coal consumption was associated with increased IM and reduced LE after accounting for electricity consumption. These results are consistent with results based on the GAINS model and previously published estimates of disease burdens attributable to energy-related environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and water and sanitation. Increased electricity consumption in countries with IM < 100/1,000 live births does not lead to greater health benefits, whereas coal consumption has significant detrimental health impacts.

Estimating the Global Public Health Implications of Electricity and Coal Consumption

PubMed Central

Thomas, Reuben; Woodward, Alistair; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Prüss-üstün, Annette; Hales, Simon; Portier, Christopher J.

2011-01-01

Background: The growing health risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions highlight the need for new energy policies that emphasize efficiency and low-carbon energy intensity. Objectives: We assessed the relationships among electricity use, coal consumption, and health outcomes. Methods: Using time-series data sets from 41 countries with varying development trajectories between 1965 and 2005, we developed an autoregressive model of life expectancy (LE) and infant mortality (IM) based on electricity consumption, coal consumption, and previous year’s LE or IM. Prediction of health impacts from the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated air pollution emissions health impact model for coal-fired power plants was compared with the time-series model results. Results: The time-series model predicted that increased electricity consumption was associated with reduced IM for countries that started with relatively high IM (> 100/1,000 live births) and low LE (< 57 years) in 1965, whereas LE was not significantly associated with electricity consumption regardless of IM and LE in 1965. Increasing coal consumption was associated with increased IM and reduced LE after accounting for electricity consumption. These results are consistent with results based on the GAINS model and previously published estimates of disease burdens attributable to energy-related environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and water and sanitation. Conclusions: Increased electricity consumption in countries with IM < 100/1,000 live births does not lead to greater health benefits, whereas coal consumption has significant detrimental health impacts. PMID:21339091

Evaluation of the CONSUME and FOFEM fuel consumption models in pine and mixed hardwood forests of the eastern United States

Treesearch

Susan J. Prichard; Eva C. Karau; Roger D. Ottmar; Maureen C. Kennedy; James B. Cronan; Clinton S. Wright; Robert E. Keane

2014-01-01

Reliable predictions of fuel consumption are critical in the eastern United States (US), where prescribed burning is frequently applied to forests and air quality is of increasing concern. CONSUME and the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), predictive models developed to estimate fuel consumption and emissions from wildland fires, have not been systematically...

Factors influencing the consumption of alcohol and tobacco: the use and abuse of economic models.

PubMed

Godfrey, C

1989-10-01

This paper is concerned with the use of economic models in the debate about the role that tax increases and restrictions on advertising should play in reducing the health problems that arise from the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. It is argued that properly specified demand models that take account of all the important factors that influence consumption are required, otherwise inadequate modelling may lead to misleading estimates of the effects of policy changes. The ability of economics to deal with goods such as alcohol and tobacco that have addictive characteristics receives special attention. Recent advances in economic theory, estimation techniques and statistical testing are discussed, as is the problem of identifying policy recommendations from empirical results.

Effect of the tobacco price support program on cigarette consumption in the United States: an updated model.

PubMed Central

Zhang, P; Husten, C; Giovino, G

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the direct effect of the tobacco price support program on domestic cigarette consumption. METHODS: We developed an economic model of demand and supply of US tobacco to estimate how much the price support program increases the price of tobacco. We calculated the resultant increase in cigarette prices from the change in the tobacco price and the quantity of domestic tobacco contained in US cigarettes. We then assessed the reduction in cigarette consumption attributable to the price support program by applying the estimated increase in the cigarette price to assumed price elasticities of demand for cigarettes. RESULTS: We estimated that the tobacco price support program increased the price of tobacco leaf by $0.36 per pound. This higher tobacco price translates to a $0.01 increase in the price of a pack of cigarettes and an estimated 0.21% reduction in cigarette consumption. CONCLUSION: Because the tobacco price support program increases the price of cigarettes minimally, its potential health benefit is likely to be small. The adverse political effect of the tobacco program might substantially outweigh the potential direct benefit of the program on cigarette consumption. PMID:10800423

Estimation, analysis, sources, and verification of consumptive water use data in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snavely, D.S.

1988-01-01

The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River basin provides water for many uses and for wildlife habitat; thus many groups have developed strategies to manage the basin 's water resource. The International Joint Commission (IJC) is reviewing and comparing available consumptive-use data to assess the magnitude and effect of consumptive uses under present projected economic and hydraulic conditions on lake levels. As a part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey compared its own estimates of consumptive use in the United States with those generated by (1) the International Great Lakes Diversions and (2) the IJC. The U.S. Geological Survey also developed two methods of calculating consumptive-use projections for 1980 through 2000; one method yields an estimate of 6,490 cu ft/s for the year 2000; the other yields an estimate of 8,330 cu ft/s. These two projections could be considered the upper and lower limits for the year 2000. The reasons for the varying estimates are differences in (1) methods by which base year values were developed, and (2) the methods or models that were used to project consumptive-use values for the future. Acquisition of consumptive-use data from water users or governmental agencies or ministries would be desirable to minimize reliance on estimates. (USGS)

DEVELOPMENT OF A DIETARY EXPOSURE POTENTIAL MODEL FOR EVALUATING DIETARY EXPOSURE TO CHEMICAL RESIDUES IN FOOD

EPA Science Inventory

The Dietary Exposure Potential Model (DEPM) is a computer-based model developed for estimating dietary exposure to chemical residues in food. The DEPM is based on food consumption data from the 1987-1988 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey (NFCS) administered by the United States ...

Demand analysis of tobacco consumption in Malaysia.

PubMed

Ross, Hana; Al-Sadat, Nabilla A M

2007-11-01

We estimated the price and income elasticity of cigarette demand and the impact of cigarette taxes on cigarette demand and cigarette tax revenue in Malaysia. The data on cigarette consumption, cigarette prices, and public policies between 1990 and 2004 were subjected to a time-series regression analysis applying the error-correction model. The preferred cigarette demand model specification resulted in long-run and short-run price elasticities estimates of -0.57 and -0.08, respectively. Income was positively related to cigarette consumption: A 1% increase in real income increased cigarette consumption by 1.46%. The model predicted that an increase in cigarette excise tax from Malaysian ringgit (RM) 1.60 to RM2.00 per pack would reduce cigarette consumption in Malaysia by 3.37%, or by 806,468,873 cigarettes. This reduction would translate to almost 165 fewer tobacco-related lung cancer deaths per year and a 20.8% increase in the government excise tax revenue. We conclude that taxation is an effective method of reducing cigarette consumption and tobacco-related deaths while increasing revenue for the government of Malaysia.

Electric train energy consumption modeling

DOE PAGES

Wang, Jinghui; Rakha, Hesham A.

2017-05-01

For this paper we develop an electric train energy consumption modeling framework considering instantaneous regenerative braking efficiency in support of a rail simulation system. The model is calibrated with data from Portland, Oregon using an unconstrained non-linear optimization procedure, and validated using data from Chicago, Illinois by comparing model predictions against the National Transit Database (NTD) estimates. The results demonstrate that regenerative braking efficiency varies as an exponential function of the deceleration level, rather than an average constant as assumed in previous studies. The model predictions are demonstrated to be consistent with the NTD estimates, producing a predicted error ofmore » 1.87% and -2.31%. The paper demonstrates that energy recovery reduces the overall power consumption by 20% for the tested Chicago route. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates that the proposed modeling approach is able to capture energy consumption differences associated with train, route and operational parameters, and thus is applicable for project-level analysis. The model can be easily implemented in traffic simulation software, used in smartphone applications and eco-transit programs given its fast execution time and easy integration in complex frameworks.« less

Electric train energy consumption modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jinghui; Rakha, Hesham A.

For this paper we develop an electric train energy consumption modeling framework considering instantaneous regenerative braking efficiency in support of a rail simulation system. The model is calibrated with data from Portland, Oregon using an unconstrained non-linear optimization procedure, and validated using data from Chicago, Illinois by comparing model predictions against the National Transit Database (NTD) estimates. The results demonstrate that regenerative braking efficiency varies as an exponential function of the deceleration level, rather than an average constant as assumed in previous studies. The model predictions are demonstrated to be consistent with the NTD estimates, producing a predicted error ofmore » 1.87% and -2.31%. The paper demonstrates that energy recovery reduces the overall power consumption by 20% for the tested Chicago route. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates that the proposed modeling approach is able to capture energy consumption differences associated with train, route and operational parameters, and thus is applicable for project-level analysis. The model can be easily implemented in traffic simulation software, used in smartphone applications and eco-transit programs given its fast execution time and easy integration in complex frameworks.« less

Using the Bivariate Dale Model to jointly estimate predictors of frequency and quantity of alcohol use.

PubMed

McMillan, Garnett P; Hanson, Tim; Bedrick, Edward J; Lapham, Sandra C

2005-09-01

This study demonstrates the usefulness of the Bivariate Dale Model (BDM) as a method for estimating the relationship between risk factors and the quantity and frequency of alcohol use, as well as the degree of association between these highly correlated drinking measures. The BDM is used to evaluate childhood sexual abuse, along with age and gender, as risk factors for the quantity and frequency of beer consumption in a sample of driving-while-intoxicated (DWI) offenders (N = 1,964; 1,612 men). The BDM allows one to estimate the relative odds of drinking up to each level of ordinal-scaled quantity and frequency of alcohol use, as well as model the degree of association between quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption as a function of covariates. Individuals who experienced childhood sexual abuse have increased risks of higher quantity and frequency of beer consumption. History of childhood sexual abuse has a greater effect on women, causing them to drink higher quantities of beer per drinking occasion. The BDM is a useful method for evaluating predictors of the quantity-frequency of alcohol consumption. SAS macrocode for fitting the BDM model is provided.

Trip Energy Estimation Methodology and Model Based on Real-World Driving Data for Green Routing Applications: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holden, Jacob; Van Til, Harrison J; Wood, Eric W

A data-informed model to predict energy use for a proposed vehicle trip has been developed in this paper. The methodology leverages nearly 1 million miles of real-world driving data to generate the estimation model. Driving is categorized at the sub-trip level by average speed, road gradient, and road network geometry, then aggregated by category. An average energy consumption rate is determined for each category, creating an energy rates look-up table. Proposed vehicle trips are then categorized in the same manner, and estimated energy rates are appended from the look-up table. The methodology is robust and applicable to almost any typemore » of driving data. The model has been trained on vehicle global positioning system data from the Transportation Secure Data Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and validated against on-road fuel consumption data from testing in Phoenix, Arizona. The estimation model has demonstrated an error range of 8.6% to 13.8%. The model results can be used to inform control strategies in routing tools, such as change in departure time, alternate routing, and alternate destinations to reduce energy consumption. This work provides a highly extensible framework that allows the model to be tuned to a specific driver or vehicle type.« less

GHGfrack: An Open-Source Model for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Combustion of Fuel during Drilling and Hydraulic Fracturing.

PubMed

Vafi, Kourosh; Brandt, Adam

2016-07-19

This paper introduces GHGfrack, an open-source engineering-based model that estimates energy consumption and associated GHG emissions from drilling and hydraulic fracturing operations. We describe verification and calibration of GHGfrack against field data for energy and fuel consumption. We run GHGfrack using data from 6927 wells in Eagle Ford and 4431 wells in Bakken oil fields. The average estimated energy consumption in Eagle Ford wells using lateral hole diameters of 8 (3)/4 and 6 (1)/8 in. are 2.25 and 2.73 TJ/well, respectively. The average estimated energy consumption in Bakken wells using hole diameters of 6 in. for horizontal section is 2.16 TJ/well. We estimate average greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 419 and 510 tonne of equivalent CO2 per well (tonne of CO2 eq/well) for the two aforementioned assumed geometries in Eagle Ford, respectively, and 417 tonne of CO2 eq/well for the case of Bakken. These estimates are limited only to GHG emissions from combustion of diesel fuel to supply energy only for rotation of drill string, drilling mud circulation, and fracturing pumps. Sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the top three key variables in driving energy intensity in drilling are the lateral hole diameter, drill pipe internal diameter, and mud flow rate. In hydraulic fracturing, the top three are lateral casing diameter, fracturing fluid volume, and length of the lateral.

New Methodology for Estimating Fuel Economy by Vehicle Class

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, Shih-Miao; Dabbs, Kathryn; Hwang, Ho-Ling

2011-01-01

Office of Highway Policy Information to develop a new methodology to generate annual estimates of average fuel efficiency and number of motor vehicles registered by vehicle class for Table VM-1 of the Highway Statistics annual publication. This paper describes the new methodology developed under this effort and compares the results of the existing manual method and the new systematic approach. The methodology developed under this study takes a two-step approach. First, the preliminary fuel efficiency rates are estimated based on vehicle stock models for different classes of vehicles. Then, a reconciliation model is used to adjust the initial fuel consumptionmore » rates from the vehicle stock models and match the VMT information for each vehicle class and the reported total fuel consumption. This reconciliation model utilizes a systematic approach that produces documentable and reproducible results. The basic framework utilizes a mathematical programming formulation to minimize the deviations between the fuel economy estimates published in the previous year s Highway Statistics and the results from the vehicle stock models, subject to the constraint that fuel consumptions for different vehicle classes must sum to the total fuel consumption estimate published in Table MF-21 of the current year Highway Statistics. The results generated from this new approach provide a smoother time series for the fuel economies by vehicle class. It also utilizes the most up-to-date and best available data with sound econometric models to generate MPG estimates by vehicle class.« less

A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endresen, Øyvind; Sørgârd, Eirik; Behrens, Hanna Lee; Brett, Per Olaf; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.

2007-06-01

Shipping activity has increased considerably over the last century and currently represents a significant contribution to the global emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Despite this, information about the historical development of fuel consumption and emissions is generally limited, with little data published pre-1950 and large deviations reported for estimates covering the last 3 decades. To better understand the historical development in ship emissions and the uncertainties associated with the estimates, we present fuel-based CO2 and SO2 emission inventories from 1925 up to 2002 and activity-based estimates from 1970 up to 2000. The global CO2 emissions from ships in 1925 have been estimated to 229 Tg (CO2), growing to about 634 Tg (CO2) in 2002. The corresponding SO2 emissions are about 2.5 Tg (SO2) and 8.5 Tg (SO2), respectively. Our activity-based estimates of fuel consumption from 1970 to 2000, covering all oceangoing civil ships above or equal to 100 gross tonnage (GT), are lower compared to previous activity-based studies. We have applied a more detailed model approach, which includes variation in the demand for sea transport, as well as operational and technological changes of the past. This study concludes that the main reason for the large deviations found in reported inventories is the applied number of days at sea. Moreover, our modeling indicates that the ship size and the degree of utilization of the fleet, combined with the shift to diesel engines, have been the major factors determining yearly fuel consumption. Interestingly, the model results from around 1973 suggest that the fleet growth is not necessarily followed by increased fuel consumption, as technical and operational characteristics have changed. Results from this study indicate that reported sales over the last 3 decades seems not to be significantly underreported as previous simplified activity-based studies have suggested. The results confirm our previously reported modeling estimates for year 2000. Previous activity-based studies have not considered ships less than 100 GT (e.g., today some 1.3 million fishing vessels), and we suggest that this fleet could account for an important part of the total fuel consumption (˜10%).

Life Cycle Assessment of Vehicle Lightweighting: Novel Mathematical Methods to Estimate Use-Phase Fuel Consumption.

PubMed

Kim, Hyung Chul; Wallington, Timothy J; Sullivan, John L; Keoleian, Gregory A

2015-08-18

Lightweighting is a key strategy to improve vehicle fuel economy. Assessing the life-cycle benefits of lightweighting requires a quantitative description of the use-phase fuel consumption reduction associated with mass reduction. We present novel methods of estimating mass-induced fuel consumption (MIF) and fuel reduction values (FRVs) from fuel economy and dynamometer test data in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) database. In the past, FRVs have been measured using experimental testing. We demonstrate that FRVs can be mathematically derived from coast down coefficients in the EPA vehicle test database avoiding additional testing. MIF and FRVs calculated for 83 different 2013 MY vehicles are in the ranges 0.22-0.43 and 0.15-0.26 L/(100 km 100 kg), respectively, and increase to 0.27-0.53 L/(100 km 100 kg) with powertrain resizing to retain equivalent vehicle performance. We show how use-phase fuel consumption can be estimated using MIF and FRVs in life cycle assessments (LCAs) of vehicle lightweighting from total vehicle and vehicle component perspectives with, and without, powertrain resizing. The mass-induced fuel consumption model is illustrated by estimating lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission benefits from lightweighting a grille opening reinforcement component using magnesium or carbon fiber composite for 83 different vehicle models.

State energy data report 1996: Consumption estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the Combined State Energy Data System (CSEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining CSEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. CSEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public and (2) to provide themore » historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models. To the degree possible, energy consumption has been assigned to five sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility sectors. Fuels covered are coal, natural gas, petroleum, nuclear electric power, hydroelectric power, biomass, and other, defined as electric power generated from geothermal, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal energy. 322 tabs.« less

Unifying error structures in commonly used biotracer mixing models.

PubMed

Stock, Brian C; Semmens, Brice X

2016-10-01

Mixing models are statistical tools that use biotracers to probabilistically estimate the contribution of multiple sources to a mixture. These biotracers may include contaminants, fatty acids, or stable isotopes, the latter of which are widely used in trophic ecology to estimate the mixed diet of consumers. Bayesian implementations of mixing models using stable isotopes (e.g., MixSIR, SIAR) are regularly used by ecologists for this purpose, but basic questions remain about when each is most appropriate. In this study, we describe the structural differences between common mixing model error formulations in terms of their assumptions about the predation process. We then introduce a new parameterization that unifies these mixing model error structures, as well as implicitly estimates the rate at which consumers sample from source populations (i.e., consumption rate). Using simulations and previously published mixing model datasets, we demonstrate that the new error parameterization outperforms existing models and provides an estimate of consumption. Our results suggest that the error structure introduced here will improve future mixing model estimates of animal diet. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Adjustment to time of use pricing: Persistence of habits or change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebello, Derrick Michael

1999-11-01

Generally the dynamics related to residential electricity consumption under TOU rates have not been analyzed completely. A habit persistence model is proposed to account for the dynamics that may be present as a result of recurring habits or lack of information about the effects of shifting load across TOU periods. In addition, the presence of attrition bias necessitated a two-step estimation approach. The decision to remain in the program modeled in the first-step, while demand for electricity was estimated in the second-step. Results show that own-price effects and habit persistence have the most significant effect the model. The habit effects, which while small in absolute terms, are significant. Elasticity estimates show that electricity consumption is inelastic during all periods of the day. Estimates of the long-run elasticities were nearly identical to short-run estimates, showing little or no adjustment across time. Cross-price elasticities indicate a willingness to substitute consumption across periods implying that TOU goods are weak substitutes. The most significant substitution occurs during the period of 5:00 PM to 9:00 PM, when most individuals are likely to be home and active.

The effect of social interactions in the primary consumption life cycle of motion pictures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo R, César A.; Castro, Alejandra; Rodriguez-Sickert, Carlos

2006-04-01

We develop a 'basic principles' model which accounts for the primary life cycle consumption of films as a social coordination problem in which information transmission is governed by word of mouth. We fit the analytical solution of such a model to aggregated consumption data from the film industry and derive a quantitative estimator of its quality based on the structure of the life cycle.

Population drinking and fatal injuries in Eastern Europe: a time-series analysis of six countries.

PubMed

Landberg, Jonas

2010-01-01

To estimate to what extent injury mortality rates in 6 Eastern European countries are affected by changes in population drinking during the post-war period. The analysis included injury mortality rates and per capita alcohol consumption in Russia, Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria and the former Czechoslovakia. Total population and gender-specific models were estimated using auto regressive integrated moving average time-series modelling. The estimates for the total population were generally positive and significant. For Russia and Belarus, a 1-litre increase in per capita consumption was associated with an increase in injury mortality of 7.5 and 5.5 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. The estimates for the remaining countries ranged between 1.4 and 2.0. The gender-specific estimates displayed national variations similar to the total population estimates although the estimates for males were higher than for females in all countries. The results suggest that changes in per capita consumption have a significant impact on injury mortality in these countries, but the strength of the association tends to be stronger in countries where intoxication-oriented drinking is more common. Copyright 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Estimating the production, consumption and export of cannabis: The Dutch case.

PubMed

van der Giessen, Mark; van Ooyen-Houben, Marianne M J; Moolenaar, Debora E G

2016-05-01

Quantifying an illegal phenomenon like a drug market is inherently complex due to its hidden nature and the limited availability of reliable information. This article presents findings from a recent estimate of the production, consumption and export of Dutch cannabis and discusses the opportunities provided by, and limitations of, mathematical models for estimating the illegal cannabis market. The data collection consisted of a comprehensive literature study, secondary analyses on data from available registrations (2012-2014) and previous studies, and expert opinion. The cannabis market was quantified with several mathematical models. The data analysis included a Monte Carlo simulation to come to a 95% interval estimate (IE) and a sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential indicators. The annual production of Dutch cannabis was estimated to be between 171 and 965tons (95% IE of 271-613tons). The consumption was estimated to be between 28 and 119tons, depending on the inclusion or exclusion of non-residents (95% IE of 51-78tons or 32-49tons respectively). The export was estimated to be between 53 and 937tons (95% IE of 206-549tons or 231-573tons, respectively). Mathematical models are valuable tools for the systematic assessment of the size of illegal markets and determining the uncertainty inherent in the estimates. The estimates required the use of many assumptions and the availability of reliable indicators was limited. This uncertainty is reflected in the wide ranges of the estimates. The estimates are sensitive to 10 of the 45 indicators. These 10 account for 86-93% of the variation found. Further research should focus on improving the variables and the independence of the mathematical models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bioenergetics models to estimate numbers of larval lampreys consumed by smallmouth bass in Elk Creek, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schultz, Luke; Heck, Michael; Kowalski, Brandon M; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Coates, Kelly C.; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-01-01

Nonnative fishes have been increasingly implicated in the decline of native fishes in the Pacific Northwest. Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu were introduced into the Umpqua River in southwest Oregon in the early 1960s. The spread of Smallmouth Bass throughout the basin coincided with a decline in counts of upstream-migrating Pacific Lampreys Entosphenus tridentatus. This suggested the potential for ecological interactions between Smallmouth Bass and Pacific Lampreys, as well as freshwater-resident Western Brook Lampreys Lampetra richardsoni. To evaluate the potential effects of Smallmouth Bass on lampreys, we sampled diets of Smallmouth Bass and used bioenergetics models to estimate consumption of larval lampreys in a segment of Elk Creek, a tributary to the lower Umpqua River. We captured 303 unique Smallmouth Bass (mean: 197 mm and 136 g) via angling in July and September. We combined information on Smallmouth Bass diet and energy density with other variables (temperature, body size, growth, prey energy density) in a bioenergetics model to estimate consumption of larval lampreys. Larval lampreys were found in 6.2% of diet samples, and model estimates indicated that the Smallmouth Bass we captured consumed 925 larval lampreys in this 2-month study period. When extrapolated to a population estimate of Smallmouth Bass in this segment, we estimated 1,911 larval lampreys were consumed between July and September. Although the precision of these estimates was low, this magnitude of consumption suggests that Smallmouth Bass may negatively affect larval lamprey populations.

A low-cost method for estimating energy expenditure during soccer refereeing.

PubMed

Ardigò, Luca Paolo; Padulo, Johnny; Zuliani, Andrea; Capelli, Carlo

2015-01-01

This study aimed to apply a validated bioenergetics model of sprint running to recordings obtained from commercial basic high-sensitivity global positioning system receivers to estimate energy expenditure and physical activity variables during soccer refereeing. We studied five Italian fifth division referees during 20 official matches while carrying the receivers. By applying the model to the recorded speed and acceleration data, we calculated energy consumption during activity, mass-normalised total energy consumption, total distance, metabolically equivalent distance and their ratio over the entire match and the two halves. Main results were as follows: (match) energy consumption = 4729 ± 608 kJ, mass normalised total energy consumption = 74 ± 8 kJ · kg(-1), total distance = 13,112 ± 1225 m, metabolically equivalent distance = 13,788 ± 1151 m and metabolically equivalent/total distance = 1.05 ± 0.05. By using a very low-cost device, it is possible to estimate the energy expenditure of soccer refereeing. The provided predicting mass-normalised total energy consumption versus total distance equation can supply information about soccer refereeing energy demand.

A comparison of operational remote sensing-based models for estimating crop evapotranspiration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The integration of remotely sensed data into models of actual evapotranspiration has allowed for the estimation of water consumption across agricultural regions. Two modeling approaches have been successfully applied. The first approach computes a surface energy balance using the radiometric surface...

Estimating regression to the mean and true effects of an intervention in a four-wave panel study.

PubMed

Gmel, Gerhard; Wicki, Matthias; Rehm, Jürgen; Heeb, Jean-Luc

2008-01-01

First, to analyse whether a taxation-related decrease in spirit prices had a similar effect on spirit consumption for low-, medium- and high-level drinkers. Secondly, as the relationship between baseline values and post-intervention changes is confounded with regression to the mean (RTM) effects, to apply different approaches for estimating the RTM effect and true change. Consumption of spirits and total alcohol consumption were analysed in a four-wave panel study (one pre-intervention and three post-intervention measurements) of 889 alcohol consumers sampled from the general population of Switzerland. Two correlational methods, one method quantitatively estimating the RTM effect and one growth curve approach based on hierarchical linear models (HLM), were used to estimate RTM effects among low-, medium- and high-level drinkers. Adjusted for RTM effects, high-level drinkers increased consumption more than lighter drinkers in the short term, but this was not a persisting effect. Changes in taxation affected mainly light and moderate drinkers in the long term. All methods concurred that RTM effects were present to a considerable degree, and methods quantifying the RTM effect or adjusting for it yielded similar estimates. Intervention studies have to consider RTM effects both in the study design and in the evaluation methods. Observed changes can be adjusted for RTM effects and true change can be estimated. The recommended method, particularly if the aim is to estimate change not only for the sample as a whole, but for groups of drinkers with different baseline consumption levels, is growth curve modelling. If reliability of measurement instruments cannot be increased, the incorporation of more than one pre-intervention measurement point may be a valuable adjustment of the study design.

Modelling the risk of Taenia solium exposure from pork produced in western Kenya.

PubMed

Thomas, Lian F; de Glanville, William A; Cook, Elizabeth A J; Bronsvoort, Barend M De C; Handel, Ian; Wamae, Claire N; Kariuki, Samuel; Fèvre, Eric M

2017-02-01

The tapeworm Taenia solium is the parasite responsible for neurocysticercosis, a neglected tropical disease of public health importance, thought to cause approximately 1/3 of epilepsy cases across endemic regions. The consumption of undercooked infected pork perpetuates the parasite's life-cycle through the establishment of adult tapeworm infections in the community. Reducing the risk associated with pork consumption in the developing world is therefore a public health priority. The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of any one pork meal in western Kenya containing a potentially infective T. solium cysticercus at the point of consumption, an aspect of the parasite transmission that has not been estimated before. To estimate this, we used a quantitative food chain risk assessment model built in the @RISK add-on to Microsoft Excel. This model indicates that any one pork meal consumed in western Kenya has a 0.006 (99% Uncertainty Interval (U.I). 0.0002-0.0164) probability of containing at least one viable T. solium cysticercus at the point of consumption and therefore being potentially infectious to humans. This equates to 22,282 (99% U.I. 622-64,134) potentially infective pork meals consumed in the course of one year within Busia District alone. This model indicates a high risk of T. solium infection associated with pork consumption in western Kenya and the work presented here can be built upon to investigate the efficacy of various mitigation strategies for this locality.

Modelling the risk of Taenia solium exposure from pork produced in western Kenya

PubMed Central

de Glanville, William A.; Cook, Elizabeth A. J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. De C.; Handel, Ian; Wamae, Claire N.; Kariuki, Samuel; Fèvre, Eric M.

2017-01-01

The tapeworm Taenia solium is the parasite responsible for neurocysticercosis, a neglected tropical disease of public health importance, thought to cause approximately 1/3 of epilepsy cases across endemic regions. The consumption of undercooked infected pork perpetuates the parasite’s life-cycle through the establishment of adult tapeworm infections in the community. Reducing the risk associated with pork consumption in the developing world is therefore a public health priority. The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of any one pork meal in western Kenya containing a potentially infective T. solium cysticercus at the point of consumption, an aspect of the parasite transmission that has not been estimated before. To estimate this, we used a quantitative food chain risk assessment model built in the @RISK add-on to Microsoft Excel. This model indicates that any one pork meal consumed in western Kenya has a 0.006 (99% Uncertainty Interval (U.I). 0.0002–0.0164) probability of containing at least one viable T. solium cysticercus at the point of consumption and therefore being potentially infectious to humans. This equates to 22,282 (99% U.I. 622–64,134) potentially infective pork meals consumed in the course of one year within Busia District alone. This model indicates a high risk of T. solium infection associated with pork consumption in western Kenya and the work presented here can be built upon to investigate the efficacy of various mitigation strategies for this locality. PMID:28212398

The effects of a soft drink tax in the UK.

PubMed

Tiffin, Richard; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Salois, Matthew

2015-05-01

The majority of the UK population is either overweight or obese. Health economists, nutritionists and doctors are calling for the UK to follow the example of other European countries and introduce a tax on soft drinks as a result of the perception that high intakes contribute to diet-related disease. We use a demand model estimated with household-level data on beverage purchases in the UK to investigate the effects of a tax on soft drink consumption. The model is a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, and censoring is handled by applying a double hurdle. Separate models are estimated for low, moderate and high consumers to allow for a differential impact on consumption between these groups. Applying different hypothetical tax rates, we conclude that understanding the nature of substitute/complement relationships is crucial in designing an effective policy as these relationships differ between consumers depending on their consumption level. The overall impact of a soft drink tax on calorie consumption is likely to be small. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A probabilistic model of gastroenteritis risks associated with consumption of street food salads in Kumasi, Ghana: evaluation of methods to estimate pathogen dose from water, produce or food quality.

PubMed

Barker, S Fiona; Amoah, Philip; Drechsel, Pay

2014-07-15

With a rapidly growing urban population in Kumasi, Ghana, the consumption of street food is increasing. Raw salads, which often accompany street food dishes, are typically composed of perishable vegetables that are grown in close proximity to the city using poor quality water for irrigation. This study assessed the risk of gastroenteritis illness (caused by rotavirus, norovirus and Ascaris lumbricoides) associated with the consumption of street food salads using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). Three different risk assessment models were constructed, based on availability of microbial concentrations: 1) Water - starting from irrigation water quality, 2) Produce - starting from the quality of produce at market, and 3) Street - using microbial quality of street food salad. In the absence of viral concentrations, published ratios between faecal coliforms and viruses were used to estimate the quality of water, produce and salad, and annual disease burdens were determined. Rotavirus dominated the estimates of annual disease burden (~10(-3)Disability Adjusted Life Years per person per year (DALYs pppy)), although norovirus also exceeded the 10(-4)DALY threshold for both Produce and Street models. The Water model ignored other on-farm and post-harvest sources of contamination and consistently produced lower estimates of risk; it likely underestimates disease burden and therefore is not recommended. Required log reductions of up to 5.3 (95th percentile) for rotavirus were estimated for the Street model, demonstrating that significant interventions are required to protect the health and safety of street food consumers in Kumasi. Estimates of virus concentrations were a significant source of model uncertainty and more data on pathogen concentrations is needed to refine QMRA estimates of disease burden. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimated effect of alcohol pricing policies on health and health economic outcomes in England: an epidemiological model.

PubMed

Purshouse, Robin C; Meier, Petra S; Brennan, Alan; Taylor, Karl B; Rafia, Rachid

2010-04-17

Although pricing policies for alcohol are known to be effective, little is known about how specific interventions affect health-care costs and health-related quality-of-life outcomes for different types of drinkers. We assessed effects of alcohol pricing and promotion policy options in various population subgroups. We built an epidemiological mathematical model to appraise 18 pricing policies, with English data from the Expenditure and Food Survey and the General Household Survey for average and peak alcohol consumption. We used results from econometric analyses (256 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates) to estimate effects of policies on alcohol consumption. We applied risk functions from systemic reviews and meta-analyses, or derived from attributable fractions, to model the effect of consumption changes on mortality and disease prevalence for 47 illnesses. General price increases were effective for reduction of consumption, health-care costs, and health-related quality of life losses in all population subgroups. Minimum pricing policies can maintain this level of effectiveness for harmful drinkers while reducing effects on consumer spending for moderate drinkers. Total bans of supermarket and off-license discounting are effective but banning only large discounts has little effect. Young adult drinkers aged 18-24 years are especially affected by policies that raise prices in pubs and bars. Minimum pricing policies and discounting restrictions might warrant further consideration because both strategies are estimated to reduce alcohol consumption, and related health harms and costs, with drinker spending increases targeting those who incur most harm. Policy Research Programme, UK Department of Health. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A BEHAVIORAL ECONOMIC MODEL OF ALCOHOL ADVERTISING AND PRICE

PubMed Central

SAFFER, HENRY; DAVE, DHAVAL; GROSSMAN, MICHAEL

2016-01-01

SUMMARY This paper presents a new empirical study of the effects of televised alcohol advertising and alcohol price on alcohol consumption. A novel feature of this study is that the empirical work is guided by insights from behavioral economic theory. Unlike the theory used in most prior studies, this theory predicts that restriction on alcohol advertising on TV would be more effective in reducing consumption for individuals with high consumption levels but less effective for individuals with low consumption levels. The estimation work employs data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the empirical model is estimated with quantile regressions. The results show that advertising has a small positive effect on consumption and that this effect is relatively larger at high consumption levels. The continuing importance of alcohol taxes is also supported. Education is employed as a proxy for self-regulation, and the results are consistent with this assumption. The key conclusion is that restrictions on alcohol advertising on TV would have a small negative effect on drinking, and this effect would be larger for heavy drinkers. PMID:25919364

Modeling Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy Loss Resulting from Tobacco Use in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Robert M.; Anderson, John P.; Kaplan, Cameron M.

2007-01-01

Purpose: To describe the development of a model for estimating the effects of tobacco use upon Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and to estimate the impact of tobacco use on health outcomes for the United States (US) population using the model. Method: We obtained estimates of tobacco consumption from 6 years of the National Health Interview…

Analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina: the impact of price changes on consumption and government revenues.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Iglesias, Germán; Schoj, Verónica; Chaloupka, Frank; Champagne, Beatriz; González-Rozada, Martín

2017-01-01

To estimate cigarette demand and to simulate a tax policy targeted to reduce tobacco consumption. Demand was estimated using a vector error correction model. Simulation exercises present the impact of a tax increase on consumption and revenues. Changes in real income and the real price of cigarettes affect the demand for cigarettes in Argentina. The long term price elasticity is 0.279 (a 10% increase in real prices reduces cigarette consumption by 2.79% per quarter) and the long term income elasticity is 0.411 (a 10% increase in real income raises consumption by 4.11% per quarter). Even in a conservative scenario, simulations show that increasing the price of cigarettes by 100% using excise taxes would maximize revenues and reduce cigarette consumption. There is sufficient room to increase taxes, reducing cigarette consumption, while still increasing tax revenues.

A Review of Operational Water Consumption and Withdrawal Factors for Electricity Generating Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macknick, Jordan; Newmark, Robin; Heath, Garvin

2011-03-01

This report provides estimates of operational water withdrawal and water consumption factors for electricity generating technologies in the United States. Estimates of water factors were collected from published primary literature and were not modified except for unit conversions. The presented water factors may be useful in modeling and policy analyses where reliable power plant level data are not available.

The price sensitivity of cigarette consumption in Bangladesh: evidence from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Bangladesh Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2010) Surveys.

PubMed

Nargis, Nigar; Ruthbah, Ummul H; Hussain, A K M Ghulam; Fong, Geoffrey T; Huq, Iftekharul; Ashiquzzaman, S M

2014-03-01

In Bangladesh, the average excise tax on cigarettes accounted for just 38% of the average retail price of cigarettes in 2009, and 45% in 2010. Both these rates are well below the WHO recommended share of 70% of the retail price at a minimum. There is thus ample room for raising taxes on cigarettes in Bangladesh. The objective of the present work was therefore to estimate the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and the effect of tax increases on the consumption of cigarettes and on tax revenue in Bangladesh. Based on data from Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2010) of the International Tobacco Control Bangladesh Survey, we estimated the overall impact of a price change on cigarette demand using a two-part model. The total price elasticity of cigarettes was measured by the sum of the elasticity of smoking prevalence and the elasticity of average daily consumption conditional on smoking participation. The price elasticity estimates were used in a simulation model to predict changes in cigarette consumption and tax revenue from tax and price increases. The total price elasticity of demand for cigarettes was estimated at -0.49. The elasticity of smoking prevalence accounted for 59% of the total price elasticity. The price elasticity of cigarette consumption is higher for people belonging to lower socioeconomic status. Increases in taxes would result in a significant reduction in cigarette consumption while increasing tax revenue. Raising cigarette prices through increased taxation could lead to a win-win-win situation in Bangladesh: it would reduce cigarette consumption, increase tobacco tax revenue and potentially decrease socioeconomic inequities.

The Price Sensitivity of Cigarette Consumption in Bangladesh: Evidence from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Bangladesh Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2010) Surveys

PubMed Central

Nargis, Nigar; Ruthbah, Ummul H.; Hussain, AKM Ghulam; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Huq, Iftekharul; Ashiquzzaman, SM

2014-01-01

Background In Bangladesh, the average excise tax on cigarettes accounted for merely 38% in 2009 and 45% in 2010 of the average retail price of cigarettes. It is well below the WHO recommended share of 70% of the retail price at a minimum. There is thus ample room for raising taxes on cigarettes in Bangladesh. Objective The objective of the paper is to estimate the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and the effect of tax increases on the consumption of cigarettes and on tax revenue in Bangladesh. Methods Based on data from Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2010) of the International Tobacco Control Bangladesh Survey, we estimate the overall impact of a price change on cigarette demand using a two-part model. The total price elasticity of cigarettes is measured by the sum of the elasticity of smoking prevalence and the elasticity of average daily consumption conditional on smoking participation. The price elasticity estimates are used in a simulation model to predict changes in cigarette consumption and tax revenue from tax and price increases. Findings The total price elasticity of demand for cigarettes is estimated at −0.49. The elasticity of smoking prevalence accounts for 59% of the total price elasticity. The price elasticity of cigarette consumption is higher for people belonging to lower socio-economic status. Increases in taxes would result in significant reduction in cigarette consumption while tax revenue increases. Conclusion Raising cigarette price through increased taxation can lead to a win-win-win situation in Bangladesh—it will reduce cigarette consumption, increase tobacco tax revenue and potentially decrease socio-economic inequities. PMID:24105828

Alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Duffy, J C

1995-02-01

Prospective studies of alcohol and mortality in middle-aged men almost universally find a U-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and risk of mortality. This review demonstrates the extent to which different studies lead to different risk estimates, analyses the putative influence of abstention as a risk factor and uses available data to produce point and interval estimates of the consumption level apparently associated with minimum risk from two studies in the UK. Data from a number of studies are analysed by means of logistic-linear modelling, taking account of the possible influence of abstention as a special risk factor. Separate analysis of British data is performed. Logistic-linear modelling demonstrates large and highly significant differences between the studies considered in the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality. The results support the identification of abstention as a special risk factor for mortality, but do not indicate that this alone explains the apparent U-shaped relationship. Separate analysis of two British studies indicates minimum risk of mortality in this population at a consumption level of about 26 (8.5 g) units of alcohol per week. The analysis supports the view that abstention may be a specific risk factor for all-cause mortality, but is not an adequate explanation of the apparent protective effect of alcohol consumption against all-cause mortality. Future analyses might better be performed on a case-by-case basis, using a change-point model to estimate the parameters of the relationship. The current misinterpretation of the sensible drinking level of 21 units per week for men in the UK as a limit is not justified, and the data suggest that alcohol consumption is a net preventive factor against premature death in this population.

Evaluation of a chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Chernyak, Sergei M.; Rediske, Richard R.; O'Keefe, James P.

2004-01-01

We evaluated the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in both the laboratory and the field. Chinook salmon in laboratory tanks were fed alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), the predominant food of chinook salmon in Lake Michigan. Food consumption and growth by chinook salmon during the experiment were measured. To estimate the efficiency with which chinook salmon retain polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from their food in the laboratory, PCB concentrations of the alewife and of the chinook salmon at both the beginning and end of the experiment were determined. Based on our laboratory evaluation, the bioenergetics model was furnishing unbiased estimates of food consumption by chinook salmon. Additionally, from the laboratory experiment, we calculated that chinook salmon retained 75% of the PCBs contained within their food. In an earlier study, assimilation rate of PCBs to chinook salmon from their food in Lake Michigan was estimated at 53%, thereby suggesting that the model was substantially overestimating food consumption by chinook salmon in Lake Michigan. However, we concluded that field performance of the model could not be accurately assessed because PCB assimilation efficiency is dependent on feeding rate, and feeding rate of chinook salmon was likely much lower in our laboratory tanks than in Lake Michigan.

Probabilistic dietary exposure assessment taking into account variability in both amount and frequency of consumption.

PubMed

Slob, Wout

2006-07-01

Probabilistic dietary exposure assessments that are fully based on Monte Carlo sampling from the raw intake data may not be appropriate. This paper shows that the data should first be analysed by using a statistical model that is able to take the various dimensions of food consumption patterns into account. A (parametric) model is discussed that takes into account the interindividual variation in (daily) consumption frequencies, as well as in amounts consumed. Further, the model can be used to include covariates, such as age, sex, or other individual attributes. Some illustrative examples show how this model may be used to estimate the probability of exceeding an (acute or chronic) exposure limit. These results are compared with the results based on directly counting the fraction of observed intakes exceeding the limit value. This comparison shows that the latter method is not adequate, in particular for the acute exposure situation. A two-step approach for probabilistic (acute) exposure assessment is proposed: first analyse the consumption data by a (parametric) statistical model as discussed in this paper, and then use Monte Carlo techniques for combining the variation in concentrations with the variation in consumption (by sampling from the statistical model). This approach results in an estimate of the fraction of the population as a function of the fraction of days at which the exposure limit is exceeded by the individual.

Blow-up for a three dimensional Keller-Segel model with consumption of chemoattractant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Jie; Wu, Hao; Zheng, Songmu

2018-04-01

We investigate blow-up properties for the initial-boundary value problem of a Keller-Segel model with consumption of chemoattractant when the spatial dimension is three. Through a kinetic reformulation of the Keller-Segel system, we first derive some higher-order estimates and obtain certain blow-up criteria for the local classical solutions. These blow-up criteria generalize the results in [4,5] from the whole space R3 to the case of bounded smooth domain Ω ⊂R3. Lower global blow-up estimate on ‖ n ‖ L∞ (Ω) is also obtained based on our higher-order estimates. Moreover, we prove local non-degeneracy for blow-up points.

Feature-based Approach in Product Design with Energy Efficiency Consideration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D. D.; Zhang, Y. J.

2017-10-01

In this paper, a method to measure the energy efficiency and ecological footprint metrics of features is proposed for product design. First the energy consumption models of various manufacturing features, like cutting feature, welding feature, etc. are studied. Then, the total energy consumption of a product is modeled and estimated according to its features. Finally, feature chains that combined by several sequence features based on the producing operation orders are defined and analyzed to calculate global optimal solution. The corresponding assessment model is also proposed to estimate their energy efficiency and ecological footprint. Finally, an example is given to validate the proposed approach in the improvement of sustainability.

Urinary and dietary analysis of 18,470 bangladeshis reveal a correlation of rice consumption with arsenic exposure and toxicity.

PubMed

Melkonian, Stephanie; Argos, Maria; Hall, Megan N; Chen, Yu; Parvez, Faruque; Pierce, Brandon; Cao, Hongyuan; Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Slavcovich, Vesna; Gamble, Mary; Haris, Parvez I; Graziano, Joseph H; Ahsan, Habibul

2013-01-01

We utilized data from the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Araihazar, Bangladesh, to evaluate the association of steamed rice consumption with urinary total arsenic concentration and arsenical skin lesions in the overall study cohort (N=18,470) and in a subset with available urinary arsenic metabolite data (N=4,517). General linear models with standardized beta coefficients were used to estimate associations between steamed rice consumption and urinary total arsenic concentration and urinary arsenic metabolites. Logistic regression models were used to estimate prevalence odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between rice intake and prevalent skin lesions at baseline. Discrete time hazard models were used to estimate discrete time (HRs) ratios and their 95% CIs for the associations between rice intake and incident skin lesions. Steamed rice consumption was positively associated with creatinine-adjusted urinary total arsenic (β=0.041, 95% CI: 0.032-0.051) and urinary total arsenic with statistical adjustment for creatinine in the model (β=0.043, 95% CI: 0.032-0.053). Additionally, we observed a significant trend in skin lesion prevalence (P-trend=0.007) and a moderate trend in skin lesion incidence (P-trend=0.07) associated with increased intake of steamed rice. This study suggests that rice intake may be a source of arsenic exposure beyond drinking water.

Bioenergetics estimate of the effects of stocking density on hatchery production of smallmouth bass fingerlings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robel, G.L.; Fisher, W.L.

1999-01-01

Production of and consumption by hatchery-reared tingerling (age-0) smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu at various simulated stocking densities were estimated with a bioenergetics model. Fish growth rates and pond water temperatures during the 1996 growing season at two hatcheries in Oklahoma were used in the model. Fish growth and simulated consumption and production differed greatly between the two hatcheries, probably because of differences in pond fertilization and mortality rates. Our results suggest that appropriate stocking density depends largely on prey availability as affected by pond fertilization and on fingerling mortality rates. The bioenergetics model provided a useful tool for estimating production at various stocking density rates. However, verification of physiological parameters for age-0 fish of hatchery-reared species is needed.

Determinants of consumption-day amounts applicable for the estimation of usual dietary intake with a short 24-h food list.

PubMed

Freese, Johanna; Pricop-Jeckstadt, Mihaela; Heuer, Thorsten; Clemens, Matthias; Boeing, Heiner; Knüppel, Sven; Nöthlings, Ute

2016-01-01

Next to the information on frequency of food consumption, information on consumption-day amounts is important to estimate usual dietary intake in epidemiological studies. Our objective was to identify determinants of consumption-day amounts to derive person-specific standard consumption-day amounts applicable for the estimation of usual dietary intake using separate sources to assesss information on consumption probability and amount consumed. 24-h Dietary recall data from the German National Nutrition Survey II ( n  = 8522; aged 20-80 years) conducted between 2005 and 2007 were analysed for determinants of consumption-day amounts of thirty-eight food and beverage groups using LASSO variable selection for linear mixed-effects models. Determinants included sex, age, BMI, smoking status, years of education, household net income, living status and employment status. Most often, sex, age and smoking status were selected as predictors for consumption-day amounts across thirty-eight food groups. In contrast, living with a partner, employment status and household net income were less frequently chosen. Overall, different determinants were of relevance for different food groups. The number of selected determinants ranged from eight for coffee and juice to zero for cabbage, tea, root vegetables, leafy vegetables, fruit vegetables, legumes, offal, vegetable oils, and other fats. For the estimation of usual dietary intake in a combined approach with a 24-h food list, person-specific standard consumption-day amounts could be used. Sex, age and smoking status were shown to be the most relevant predictors in our analysis. Their impact on the estimation of usual dietary intake needs to be evaluated in future studies.

A computer-based matrix for rapid calculation of pulmonary hemodynamic parameters in congenital heart disease

PubMed Central

Lopes, Antonio Augusto; dos Anjos Miranda, Rogério; Gonçalves, Rilvani Cavalcante; Thomaz, Ana Maria

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: In patients with congenital heart disease undergoing cardiac catheterization for hemodynamic purposes, parameter estimation by the indirect Fick method using a single predicted value of oxygen consumption has been a matter of criticism. OBJECTIVE: We developed a computer-based routine for rapid estimation of replicate hemodynamic parameters using multiple predicted values of oxygen consumption. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using Microsoft® Excel facilities, we constructed a matrix containing 5 models (equations) for prediction of oxygen consumption, and all additional formulas needed to obtain replicate estimates of hemodynamic parameters. RESULTS: By entering data from 65 patients with ventricular septal defects, aged 1 month to 8 years, it was possible to obtain multiple predictions for oxygen consumption, with clear between-age groups (P <.001) and between-methods (P <.001) differences. Using these predictions in the individual patient, it was possible to obtain the upper and lower limits of a likely range for any given parameter, which made estimation more realistic. CONCLUSION: The organized matrix allows for rapid obtainment of replicate parameter estimates, without error due to exhaustive calculations. PMID:19641642

Per capita alcohol consumption and suicide mortality in a panel of US states from 1950 to 2002

PubMed Central

Kerr, William C.; Subbaraman, Meenakshi; Ye, Yu

2011-01-01

Introduction and Aims The relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and suicide rates has been found to vary in significance and magnitude across countries. This study utilizes a panel of time-series measures from the US states to estimate the effects of changes in current and lagged alcohol sales on suicide mortality risk. Design and Methods Generalized least squares estimation utilized 53 years of data from 48 US states or state groups to estimate relationships between total and beverage-specific alcohol consumption measures and age-standardized suicide mortality rates in first-differenced semi-logged models. Results An additional liter of ethanol from total alcohol sales was estimated to increase suicide rates by 2.3% in models utilizing a distributed lag specification while no effect was found in models including only current alcohol consumption. A similar result is found for men, while for women both current and distributed lag measures were found to be significantly related to suicide rates with an effect of about 3.2% per liter from current and 5.8% per liter from the lagged measure. Beverage-specific models indicate that spirits is most closely linked with suicide risk for women while beer and wine are for men. Unemployment rates are consistently positively related to suicide rates. Discussion and Conclusions Results suggest that chronic effects, potentially related to alcohol abuse and dependence, are the main source of alcohol’s impact on suicide rates in the US for men and are responsible for about half of the effect for women. PMID:21896069

Orbit selection of nanosatellite formation in term of fuel consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pimnoo, Ammarin; Hiraki, Koju

In nanosatellite formation mission design, orbit selection is a necessary factor. Fuel consumption is also necessary to maintain the orbit. Therefore, the best orbit should be the one of minimum fuel consumption for nanosatellite formation. The purpose of this paper is to provide a convenient way to estimate fuel consumption for a nanosatellite to keep formation flying. The formation is disturbed by J _{2} perturbation and other perturbing accelerations. Firstly, the Hill-Clohessy-Wiltshire equations are used in the analysis. Gaussian variation of parameters is included into the Hill’s equation to analyze the variation of Kaplerian orbital elements. The J _{2} perturbation and other perturbing accelerations such as atmospheric drag, solar-radiation pressure and third-body perturbations are considered. Thus, a linear model based on Hill’s equation is established to estimate fuel consumption. Finally, an example of the best orbit for formation flying with minimum fuel consumption shall be presented.

Estimates of Global Rangeland Net Primary Productivity and its Consumption Based on Climate and Livestock Distribution Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; Rafique, R.; West, T. O.; Ogle, S. M.

2016-12-01

Rangelands play an important role in providing ecosystem services such as food, forage, and fuels in many parts of the world. The net primary productivity (NPP), a difference between CO2 fixed by plants and CO2 lost to autotrophic respiration, is a good indicator of the productivity of rangeland ecosystems, and their contribution to the cycling of carbon in the Earth system. In this study, we estimated the NPP of global rangelands, the consumption thereof by grazing livestock, and associated uncertainties, to better understand and quantify the contribution of rangelands to land-based carbon storage. We estimated rangeland NPP using mean annual precipitation data from Climate Research Unit (CRU), and a regression model based on global observations (Del Grosso et al., 2008). Spatial distributions of annual livestock consumption of rangeland NPP (Wolf et al., 2015) were combined with gridded annual rangeland NPP for the years 2000 - 2011. The uncertainty analysis of these estimates was conducted using a Monte Carlo approach. The rangeland NPP estimates with associated uncertainties were also compared with the total modeled GPP estimates obtained from vegetation dynamic model simulations. Our results showed that mean above-ground NPP of rangelands is 1017.5 MgC/km2, while mean below-ground NPP is 847.6 MgC/km2. The total rangeland NPP represents a significant portion of the total NPP of the terrestrial ecosystem. The livestock area requirements used to geographically distribute livestock spatially are based on optimal pasturage and are low relative to area requirements on less productive land. Even so, ca. 90% of annual livestock consumption of rangeland NPP were met with no adjustment of livestock distributions. Moreover, the results of this study allowed us to explicitly quantify the temporal and spatial variations of rangeland NPP under different climatic conditions. Uncertainty analysis was helpful in identifying the strength and weakness of the methods used to estimate rangeland NPP. Overall, the results from this study are useful in quantifying the contribution of rangelands to the carbon cycle and for providing geospatially distributed carbon fluxes associated with the production and consumption of rangeland biomass.

Variability and trends in the consumption of drugs for treating attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in Castile-La Mancha, Spain (1992-2015).

PubMed

Criado-Álvarez, J J; González González, J; Romo Barrientos, C; Mohedano Moriano, A; Montero Rubio, J C; Pérez Veiga, J P

2016-09-16

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common behavioural disorders of childhood; its prevalence in Spain is estimated at 5-9%. Available treatments for this condition include methylphenidate, atomoxetine, and lisdexamfetamine, whose consumption increases each year. The prevalence of ADHD was estimated by calculating the defined daily dose per 1,000 population per day of each drug and the total doses (therapeutic group N06BA) between 1992 and 2015 in each of the provinces of Castile-La Mancha (Spain). Trends, joinpoints, and annual percentages of change were analysed using joinpoint regression models. The minimum prevalence of ADHD in the population of Castile-La Mancha aged 5 to 19 was estimated at 13.22 cases per 1,000 population per day; prevalence varied across provinces (p<.05). Overall consumption has increased from 1992 to 2015, with an annual percentages of change of 10.3% and several joinpoints (2000, 2009, and 2012). methylphenidate represents 89.6% of total drug consumption, followed by lisdexamfetamine at 8%. Analysing drug consumption enables us to estimate the distribution of ADHD patients in Castile-La Mancha. Our data show an increase in the consumption of these drugs as well as differences in drug consumption between provinces, which reflect differences in ADHD management in clinical practice. Copyright © 2016. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

The quantitative genetics of maximal and basal rates of oxygen consumption in mice.

PubMed Central

Dohm, M R; Hayes, J P; Garland, T

2001-01-01

A positive genetic correlation between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and maximal (VO(2)max) rate of oxygen consumption is a key assumption of the aerobic capacity model for the evolution of endothermy. We estimated the genetic (V(A), additive, and V(D), dominance), prenatal (V(N)), and postnatal common environmental (V(C)) contributions to individual differences in metabolic rates and body mass for a genetically heterogeneous laboratory strain of house mice (Mus domesticus). Our breeding design did not allow the simultaneous estimation of V(D) and V(N). Regardless of whether V(D) or V(N) was assumed, estimates of V(A) were negative under the full models. Hence, we fitted reduced models (e.g., V(A) + V(N) + V(E) or V(A) + V(E)) and obtained new variance estimates. For reduced models, narrow-sense heritability (h(2)(N)) for BMR was <0.1, but estimates of h(2)(N) for VO(2)max were higher. When estimated with the V(A) + V(E) model, the additive genetic covariance between VO(2)max and BMR was positive and statistically different from zero. This result offers tentative support for the aerobic capacity model for the evolution of vertebrate energetics. However, constraints imposed on the genetic model may cause our estimates of additive variance and covariance to be biased, so our results should be interpreted with caution and tested via selection experiments. PMID:11560903

Accuracy of self-reported drinking: observational verification of 'last occasion' drink estimates of young adults.

PubMed

Northcote, Jeremy; Livingston, Michael

2011-01-01

As a formative step towards determining the accuracy of self-reported drinking levels commonly used for estimating population alcohol use, the validity of a 'last occasion' self-reporting approach is tested with corresponding field observations of participants' drinking quantity. This study is the first known attempt to validate the accuracy of self-reported alcohol consumption using data from a natural setting. A total of 81 young adults (aged 18-25 years) were purposively selected in Perth, Western Australia. Participants were asked to report the number of alcoholic drinks consumed at nightlife venues 1-2 days after being observed by peer-based researchers on 239 occasions. Complete observation data and self-report estimates were available for 129 sessions, which were fitted with multi-level models assessing the relationship between observed and reported consumption. Participants accurately estimated their consumption when engaging in light to moderate drinking (eight or fewer drinks in a single session), with no significant difference between the mean reported consumption and the mean observed consumption. In contrast, participants underestimated their own consumption by increasing amounts when engaging in heavy drinking of more than eight drinks. It is suggested that recent recall methods in self-report surveys are potentially reasonably accurate measures of actual drinking levels for light to moderate drinkers, but that underestimating of alcohol consumption increases with heavy consumption. Some of the possible reasons for underestimation of heavy drinking are discussed, with both cognitive and socio-cultural factors considered.

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.

Estimation model for habitual 24-hour urinary-sodium excretion using simple questionnaires from normotensive Koreans.

PubMed

Kong, Ji-Sook; Lee, Yeon-Kyung; Kim, Mi Kyung; Choi, Mi-Kyeong; Heo, Young-Ran; Hyun, Taisun; Kim, Sun Mee; Lyu, Eun-Soon; Oh, Se-Young; Park, Hae-Ryun; Rhee, Moo-Yong; Ro, Hee-Kyong; Song, Mi Kyung

2018-01-01

This study was conducted to develop an equation for estimation of 24-h urinary-sodium excretion that can serve as an alternative to 24-h dietary recall and 24-h urine collection for normotensive Korean adults. In total, data on 640 healthy Korean adults aged 19 to 69 years from 4 regions of the country were collected as a training set. In order to externally validate the equation developed from that training set, 200 subjects were recruited independently as a validation set. Due to heterogeneity by gender, we constructed a gender-specific equation for estimation of 24-h urinary-sodium excretion by using a multivariable linear regression model and assessed the performance of the developed equation in validation set. The best model consisted of age, body weight, dietary behavior ('eating salty food', 'Kimchi consumption', 'Korean soup or stew consumption', 'soy sauce or red pepper paste consumption'), and smoking status in men, and age, body weight, dietary behavior ('salt preference', 'eating salty food', 'checking sodium content for processed foods', 'nut consumption'), and smoking status in women, respectively. When this model was tested in the external validation set, the mean bias between the measured and estimated 24-h urinary-sodium excretion from Bland-Altman plots was -1.92 (95% CI: -113, 110) mmol/d for men and -1.51 (95% CI: -90.6, 87.6) mmol/d for women. The cut-points of sodium intake calculated based on the equations were ≥4,000 mg/d for men and ≥3,500 mg/d for women, with 89.8 and 76.6% sensitivity and 29.3 and 64.2% specificity, respectively. In this study, a habitual 24-hour urinary-sodium-excretion-estimation model of normotensive Korean adults based on anthropometric and lifestyle factors was developed and showed feasibility for an asymptomatic population.

A Behavioral Economic Model of Alcohol Advertising and Price.

PubMed

Saffer, Henry; Dave, Dhaval; Grossman, Michael

2016-07-01

This paper presents a new empirical study of the effects of televised alcohol advertising and alcohol price on alcohol consumption. A novel feature of this study is that the empirical work is guided by insights from behavioral economic theory. Unlike the theory used in most prior studies, this theory predicts that restriction on alcohol advertising on TV would be more effective in reducing consumption for individuals with high consumption levels but less effective for individuals with low consumption levels. The estimation work employs data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the empirical model is estimated with quantile regressions. The results show that advertising has a small positive effect on consumption and that this effect is relatively larger at high consumption levels. The continuing importance of alcohol taxes is also supported. Education is employed as a proxy for self-regulation, and the results are consistent with this assumption. The key conclusion is that restrictions on alcohol advertising on TV would have a small negative effect on drinking, and this effect would be larger for heavy drinkers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Associations Between Fast-Food Consumption and Body Mass Index: A Cross-Sectional Study in Adult Twins

PubMed Central

Cohen-Cline, Hannah; Lau, Richard; Moudon, Anne V.; Turkheimer, Eric; Duncan, Glen E.

2015-01-01

Obesity is a substantial health problem in the United States, and is associated with many chronic diseases. Previous studies have linked poor dietary habits to obesity. This cross-sectional study aimed to identify the association between body mass index (BMI) and fast-food consumption among 669 same-sex adult twin pairs residing in the Puget Sound region around Seattle, Washington. We calculated twin-pair correlations for BMI and fast-food consumption. We next regressed BMI on fast-food consumption using generalized estimating equations (GEE), and finally estimated the within-pair difference in BMI associated with a difference in fast-food consumption, which controls for all potential genetic and environment characteristics shared between twins within a pair. Twin-pair correlations for fast-food consumption were similar for identical (monozygotic; MZ) and fraternal (dizygotic; DZ) twins, but were substantially higher in MZ than DZ twins for BMI. In the unadjusted GEE model, greater fast-food consumption was associated with larger BMI. For twin pairs overall, and for MZ twins, there was no association between within-pair differences in fast-food consumption and BMI in any model. In contrast, there was a significant association between within-pair differences in fast-food consumption and BMI among DZ twins, suggesting that genetic factors play a role in the observed association. Thus, although variance in fast-food consumption itself is largely driven by environmental factors, the overall association between this specific eating behavior and BMI is largely due to genetic factors. PMID:26005202

Associations Between Fast-Food Consumption and Body Mass Index: A Cross-Sectional Study in Adult Twins.

PubMed

Cohen-Cline, Hannah; Lau, Richard; Moudon, Anne V; Turkheimer, Eric; Duncan, Glen E

2015-08-01

Obesity is a substantial health problem in the United States, and is associated with many chronic diseases. Previous studies have linked poor dietary habits to obesity. This cross-sectional study aimed to identify the association between body mass index (BMI) and fast-food consumption among 669 same-sex adult twin pairs residing in the Puget Sound region around Seattle, Washington. We calculated twin-pair correlations for BMI and fast-food consumption. We next regressed BMI on fast-food consumption using generalized estimating equations (GEE), and finally estimated the within-pair difference in BMI associated with a difference in fast-food consumption, which controls for all potential genetic and environment characteristics shared between twins within a pair. Twin-pair correlations for fast-food consumption were similar for identical (monozygotic; MZ) and fraternal (dizygotic; DZ) twins, but were substantially higher in MZ than DZ twins for BMI. In the unadjusted GEE model, greater fast-food consumption was associated with larger BMI. For twin pairs overall, and for MZ twins, there was no association between within-pair differences in fast-food consumption and BMI in any model. In contrast, there was a significant association between within-pair differences in fast-food consumption and BMI among DZ twins, suggesting that genetic factors play a role in the observed association. Thus, although variance in fast-food consumption itself is largely driven by environmental factors, the overall association between this specific eating behavior and BMI is largely due to genetic factors.

Reevaluation of a walleye (Sander vitreus) bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Wang, Chunfang

2013-01-01

Walleye (Sander vitreus) is an important sport fish throughout much of North America, and walleye populations support valuable commercial fisheries in certain lakes as well. Using a corrected algorithm for balancing the energy budget, we reevaluated the performance of the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for walleye in the laboratory. Walleyes were fed rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) in four laboratory tanks each day during a 126-day experiment. Feeding rates ranged from 1.4 to 1.7 % of walleye body weight per day. Based on a statistical comparison of bioenergetics model predictions of monthly consumption with observed monthly consumption, we concluded that the bioenergetics model estimated food consumption by walleye without any significant bias. Similarly, based on a statistical comparison of bioenergetics model predictions of weight at the end of the monthly test period with observed weight, we concluded that the bioenergetics model predicted walleye growth without any detectable bias. In addition, the bioenergetics model predictions of cumulative consumption over the 126-day experiment differed fromobserved cumulative consumption by less than 10 %. Although additional laboratory and field testing will be needed to fully evaluate model performance, based on our laboratory results, the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for walleye appears to be providing unbiased predictions of food consumption.

A Method for Modeling Household Occupant Behavior to Simulate Residential Energy Consumption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Brandon J; Starke, Michael R; Abdelaziz, Omar

2014-01-01

This paper presents a statistical method for modeling the behavior of household occupants to estimate residential energy consumption. Using data gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau in the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), actions carried out by survey respondents are categorized into ten distinct activities. These activities are defined to correspond to the major energy consuming loads commonly found within the residential sector. Next, time varying minute resolution Markov chain based statistical models of different occupant types are developed. Using these behavioral models, individual occupants are simulated to show how an occupant interacts with the major residential energy consuming loadsmore » throughout the day. From these simulations, the minimum number of occupants, and consequently the minimum number of multiple occupant households, needing to be simulated to produce a statistically accurate representation of aggregate residential behavior can be determined. Finally, future work will involve the use of these occupant models along side residential load models to produce a high-resolution energy consumption profile and estimate the potential for demand response from residential loads.« less

Integrated Evaluation of Reliability and Power Consumption of Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Dâmaso, Antônio; Rosa, Nelson; Maciel, Paulo

2017-11-05

Power consumption is a primary interest in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), and a large number of strategies have been proposed to evaluate it. However, those approaches usually neither consider reliability issues nor the power consumption of applications executing in the network. A central concern is the lack of consolidated solutions that enable us to evaluate the power consumption of applications and the network stack also considering their reliabilities. To solve this problem, we introduce a fully automatic solution to design power consumption aware WSN applications and communication protocols. The solution presented in this paper comprises a methodology to evaluate the power consumption based on the integration of formal models, a set of power consumption and reliability models, a sensitivity analysis strategy to select WSN configurations and a toolbox named EDEN to fully support the proposed methodology. This solution allows accurately estimating the power consumption of WSN applications and the network stack in an automated way.

Estimation of Anthropogenic Heat Emissions in Delhi, India and Their Role in Urban Heat Island Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhati, S.; Mohan, M.

2016-12-01

Energy consumption in the urban environment impacts the urban surface energy budget and leads to the emission of anthropogenic sensible heat into the atmosphere. Anthropogenic heat (AH) can vary both in time and space, and are not readily measured. In present study, anthropogenic heat emissions have been estimated using an inventory approach for Delhi. The main sources that have been considered are electricity consumption, vehicular emissions, fuel consumption in domestic sector and waste heat from power plants. Total estimated anthropogenic heat is apportioned gridwise (2 km2) and incorporated in the WRF (version 3.5) model coupled with single-layer Urban canopy model (UCM) to assess the impact of these emissions on urban heat island effect in Delhi. Vehicular emissions have been found to be highest contributor to anthropogenic heat emissions (47%) followed by electricity consumption (28%), domestic fuel consumption (16%) and waste heat from power plants (9%). Highest annual average anthropogenic heat flux was estimated to be 25.2 Wm-2. High flux zones are observed in east Delhi and densely occupied and commercial zones of Sitaram Bazar and Connaught Place. Inclusion of anthropogenic heat emissions in the model improves model performance for near surface temperature as well as urban heat island intensities. Maximum simulated night-time UHI improves from 5.95°C (without AH) to 6.24°C (with AH) against observed value of 6.68°C, thereby indicating positive contribution of anthropogenic heat emissions along with urban canopy towards UHI effect in Delhi. Similarly, spatial distribution and UHI hotspots are found to be comparatively closer to corresponding observed distribution and hotspots with anthropogenic heat emissions being added to the WRF model. Overall, relatively improved model performance is indicative of the impact of anthropogenic heat emissions in local urban meteorology and urban heat island effect in Delhi. Hence, rising population and change in land use-cover and associated anthropogenic activities call for strategic mitigation measures in the city to prevent further strengthening of heat island effect.

Dynamic Financial Constraints: Distinguishing Mechanism Design from Exogenously Incomplete Regimes*

PubMed Central

Karaivanov, Alexander; Townsend, Robert M.

2014-01-01

We formulate and solve a range of dynamic models of constrained credit/insurance that allow for moral hazard and limited commitment. We compare them to full insurance and exogenously incomplete financial regimes (autarky, saving only, borrowing and lending in a single asset). We develop computational methods based on mechanism design, linear programming, and maximum likelihood to estimate, compare, and statistically test these alternative dynamic models with financial/information constraints. Our methods can use both cross-sectional and panel data and allow for measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity. We estimate the models using data on Thai households running small businesses from two separate samples. We find that in the rural sample, the exogenously incomplete saving only and borrowing regimes provide the best fit using data on consumption, business assets, investment, and income. Family and other networks help consumption smoothing there, as in a moral hazard constrained regime. In contrast, in urban areas, we find mechanism design financial/information regimes that are decidedly less constrained, with the moral hazard model fitting best combined business and consumption data. We perform numerous robustness checks in both the Thai data and in Monte Carlo simulations and compare our maximum likelihood criterion with results from other metrics and data not used in the estimation. A prototypical counterfactual policy evaluation exercise using the estimation results is also featured. PMID:25246710

Quantifying biomass consumption and carbon release from the California Rim fire by integrating airborne LiDAR and Landsat OLI data.

PubMed

Garcia, Mariano; Saatchi, Sassan; Casas, Angeles; Koltunov, Alexander; Ustin, Susan; Ramirez, Carlos; Garcia-Gutierrez, Jorge; Balzter, Heiko

2017-02-01

Quantifying biomass consumption and carbon release is critical to understanding the role of fires in the carbon cycle and air quality. We present a methodology to estimate the biomass consumed and the carbon released by the California Rim fire by integrating postfire airborne LiDAR and multitemporal Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery. First, a support vector regression (SVR) model was trained to estimate the aboveground biomass (AGB) from LiDAR-derived metrics over the unburned area. The selected model estimated AGB with an R 2 of 0.82 and RMSE of 59.98 Mg/ha. Second, LiDAR-based biomass estimates were extrapolated to the entire area before and after the fire, using Landsat OLI reflectance bands, Normalized Difference Infrared Index, and the elevation derived from LiDAR data. The extrapolation was performed using SVR models that resulted in R 2 of 0.73 and 0.79 and RMSE of 87.18 (Mg/ha) and 75.43 (Mg/ha) for the postfire and prefire images, respectively. After removing bias from the AGB extrapolations using a linear relationship between estimated and observed values, we estimated the biomass consumption from postfire LiDAR and prefire Landsat maps to be 6.58 ± 0.03 Tg (10 12  g), which translate into 12.06 ± 0.06 Tg CO2 e released to the atmosphere, equivalent to the annual emissions of 2.57 million cars.

Quantifying biomass consumption and carbon release from the California Rim fire by integrating airborne LiDAR and Landsat OLI data

PubMed Central

Saatchi, Sassan; Casas, Angeles; Koltunov, Alexander; Ustin, Susan; Ramirez, Carlos; Garcia‐Gutierrez, Jorge; Balzter, Heiko

2017-01-01

Abstract Quantifying biomass consumption and carbon release is critical to understanding the role of fires in the carbon cycle and air quality. We present a methodology to estimate the biomass consumed and the carbon released by the California Rim fire by integrating postfire airborne LiDAR and multitemporal Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery. First, a support vector regression (SVR) model was trained to estimate the aboveground biomass (AGB) from LiDAR‐derived metrics over the unburned area. The selected model estimated AGB with an R 2 of 0.82 and RMSE of 59.98 Mg/ha. Second, LiDAR‐based biomass estimates were extrapolated to the entire area before and after the fire, using Landsat OLI reflectance bands, Normalized Difference Infrared Index, and the elevation derived from LiDAR data. The extrapolation was performed using SVR models that resulted in R 2 of 0.73 and 0.79 and RMSE of 87.18 (Mg/ha) and 75.43 (Mg/ha) for the postfire and prefire images, respectively. After removing bias from the AGB extrapolations using a linear relationship between estimated and observed values, we estimated the biomass consumption from postfire LiDAR and prefire Landsat maps to be 6.58 ± 0.03 Tg (1012 g), which translate into 12.06 ± 0.06 Tg CO2e released to the atmosphere, equivalent to the annual emissions of 2.57 million cars. PMID:28405539

Measuring spatial and temporal trends of nicotine and alcohol consumption in Australia using wastewater-based epidemiology.

PubMed

Lai, Foon Yin; Gartner, Coral; Hall, Wayne; Carter, Steve; O'Brien, Jake; Tscharke, Benjamin J; Been, Frederic; Gerber, Cobus; White, Jason; Thai, Phong; Bruno, Raimondo; Prichard, Jeremy; Kirkbride, K Paul; Mueller, Jochen F

2018-06-01

Tobacco and alcohol consumption remain priority public health issues world-wide. As participation in population-based surveys has fallen, it is increasingly challenging to estimate accurately the prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an alternative approach for estimating substance use at the population level that does not rely upon survey participation. This study examined spatio-temporal patterns in nicotine (a proxy for tobacco) and alcohol consumption in the Australian population via WBE. Daily wastewater samples (n = 164) were collected at 18 selected wastewater treatment plants across Australia, covering approximately 45% of the total population. Nicotine and alcohol metabolites in the samples were measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Daily consumption of nicotine and alcohol and its associated uncertainty were computed using Monte Carlo simulations. Nation-wide daily average and weekly consumption of these two substances were extrapolated using ordinary least squares and mixed-effect models. Nicotine and alcohol consumption was observed in all communities. Consumption of these substances in rural towns was three to four times higher than in urban communities. The spatial consumption pattern of these substances was consistent across the monitoring periods in 2014-15. Nicotine metabolites significantly reduced by 14-25% (P = 0.001-0.008) (2014-15) in some catchments. Alcohol consumption remained constant over the studied periods. Strong weekly consumption patterns were observed for alcohol but not nicotine. Nation-wide, the daily average consumption per person (aged 15-79 years) was estimated at approximately 2.5 cigarettes and 1.3-2.0 standard drinks (weekday-weekend) of alcohol. These estimates were close to the sale figure and apparent consumption, respectively. Wastewater-based epidemiology is a feasible method for objectively evaluating the geographic, temporal and weekly profiles of nicotine and alcohol consumption in different communities nationally. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Response of global soil consumption of atmospheric methane to changes in atmospheric climate and nitrogen deposition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhuang, Qianlai; Chen, Min; Xu, Kai; Tang, Jinyun; Saikawa, Eri; Lu, Yanyu; Melillo, Jerry M.; Prinn, Ronald G.; McGuire, A. David

2013-01-01

Soil consumption of atmospheric methane plays an important secondary role in regulating the atmospheric CH4 budget, next to the dominant loss mechanism involving reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH). Here we used a process-based biogeochemistry model to quantify soil consumption during the 20th and 21st centuries. We estimated that global soils consumed 32–36 Tg CH4 yr−1 during the 1990s. Natural ecosystems accounted for 84% of the total consumption, and agricultural ecosystems only consumed 5 Tg CH4 yr−1 in our estimations. During the twentieth century, the consumption rates increased at 0.03–0.20 Tg CH4 yr−2 with seasonal amplitudes increasing from 1.44 to 3.13 Tg CH4 month−1. Deserts, shrublands, and xeric woodlands were the largest sinks. Atmospheric CH4 concentrations and soil moisture exerted significant effects on the soil consumption while nitrogen deposition had a moderate effect. During the 21st century, the consumption is predicted to increase at 0.05-1.0 Tg CH4 yr−2, and total consumption will reach 45–140 Tg CH4 yr−1 at the end of the 2090s, varying under different future climate scenarios. Dry areas will persist as sinks, boreal ecosystems will become stronger sinks, mainly due to increasing soil temperatures. Nitrogen deposition will modestly reduce the future sink strength at the global scale. When we incorporated the estimated global soil consumption into our chemical transport model simulations, we found that nitrogen deposition suppressed the total methane sink by 26 Tg during the period 1998–2004, resulting in 6.6 ppb higher atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios compared to without considering nitrogen deposition effects. On average, a cumulative increase of every 1 Tg soil CH4 consumption decreased atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios by 0.26 ppb during the period 1998–2004.

Adjusting for unrecorded consumption in survey and per capita sales data: quantification of impact on gender- and age-specific alcohol-attributable fractions for oral and pharyngeal cancers in Great Britain.

PubMed

Meier, Petra Sylvia; Meng, Yang; Holmes, John; Baumberg, Ben; Purshouse, Robin; Hill-McManus, Daniel; Brennan, Alan

2013-01-01

Large discrepancies are typically found between per capita alcohol consumption estimated via survey data compared with sales, excise or production figures. This may lead to significant inaccuracies when calculating levels of alcohol-attributable harms. Using British data, we demonstrate an approach to adjusting survey data to give more accurate estimates of per capita alcohol consumption. First, sales and survey data are adjusted to account for potential biases (e.g. self-pouring, under-sampled populations) using evidence from external data sources. Secondly, survey and sales data are aligned using different implementations of Rehm et al.'s method [in (2010) Statistical modeling of volume of alcohol exposure for epidemiological studies of population health: the US example. Pop Health Metrics 8, 1-12]. Thirdly, the impact of our approaches is tested by using our revised survey dataset to calculate alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) for oral and pharyngeal cancers. British sales data under-estimate per capita consumption by 8%, primarily due to illicit alcohol. Adjustments to survey data increase per capita consumption estimates by 35%, primarily due to under-sampling of dependent drinkers and under-estimation of home-poured spirits volumes. Before aligning sales and survey data, the revised survey estimate remains 22% lower than the revised sales estimate. Revised AAFs for oral and pharyngeal cancers are substantially larger with our preferred method for aligning data sources, yielding increases in an AAF from the original survey dataset of 0.47-0.60 (males) and 0.28-0.35 (females). It is possible to use external data sources to adjust survey data to reduce the under-estimation of alcohol consumption and then account for residual under-estimation using a statistical calibration technique. These revisions lead to markedly higher estimated levels of alcohol-attributable harm.

Urinary and Dietary Analysis of 18,470 Bangladeshis Reveal a Correlation of Rice Consumption with Arsenic Exposure and Toxicity

PubMed Central

Melkonian, Stephanie; Argos, Maria; Hall, Megan N.; Chen, Yu; Parvez, Faruque; Pierce, Brandon; Cao, Hongyuan; Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Slavcovich, Vesna; Gamble, Mary; Haris, Parvez I.; Graziano, Joseph H.; Ahsan, Habibul

2013-01-01

Background We utilized data from the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Araihazar, Bangladesh, to evaluate the association of steamed rice consumption with urinary total arsenic concentration and arsenical skin lesions in the overall study cohort (N=18,470) and in a subset with available urinary arsenic metabolite data (N=4,517). Methods General linear models with standardized beta coefficients were used to estimate associations between steamed rice consumption and urinary total arsenic concentration and urinary arsenic metabolites. Logistic regression models were used to estimate prevalence odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between rice intake and prevalent skin lesions at baseline. Discrete time hazard models were used to estimate discrete time (HRs) ratios and their 95% CIs for the associations between rice intake and incident skin lesions. Results Steamed rice consumption was positively associated with creatinine-adjusted urinary total arsenic (β=0.041, 95% CI: 0.032-0.051) and urinary total arsenic with statistical adjustment for creatinine in the model (β=0.043, 95% CI: 0.032-0.053). Additionally, we observed a significant trend in skin lesion prevalence (P-trend=0.007) and a moderate trend in skin lesion incidence (P-trend=0.07) associated with increased intake of steamed rice. Conclusions This study suggests that rice intake may be a source of arsenic exposure beyond drinking water. PMID:24260455

Building and occupant characteristics as determinants of residential energy consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieves, L. A.; Nieves, A. L.

1981-10-01

The probable effects of building energy performance standards on energy consumption were studied. Observations of actual residential energy consumption that could affirm or disaffirm consumption estimates of the Department of Energy's 2.0A simulation model were obtained. Home owner's conservation investments and home purchase decisions were investigated. The investigation of determinants of household energy consumption is described. The underlying economic theory and its implications are given as well as a description of the data collection procedures, of the formulation of variables, and then of data analysis and findings. The assumptions and limitations of the energy use projections generated by the DOE 2.0A model are discussed. Actual electricity data for the houses are then compared with results of the simulation.

Quantifying Elements of a Lunar Economy Based on Resource Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenblatt, J. B.

2017-10-01

We model a simplified lunar economy from human life support, Earth materials consumption, and energy and propulsion requirement estimates, constrained by lunar elemental abundances; estimate likely imports/exports and "gross interplanetary product."

Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balatsky, Alexander V.; Balatsky, Galina I.; Borysov, Stanislav S.

The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially neededmore » immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.« less

Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

DOE PAGES

Balatsky, Alexander V.; Balatsky, Galina I.; Borysov, Stanislav S.

2015-03-20

The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially neededmore » immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.« less

Industrial steam systems and the energy-water nexus.

PubMed

Walker, Michael E; Lv, Zhen; Masanet, Eric

2013-11-19

This paper presents estimates for water consumption and steam generation within U.S. manufacturing industries. These estimates were developed through the integration of detailed, industry-level fuel use and operation data with an engineering-based steam system model. The results indicate that industrial steam systems consume approximately 3780 TBTU/yr (3.98 × 10(9) GJ/yr) to generate an estimated 2.9 trillion lb/yr (1.3 trillion kg/yr) of steam. Since a good portion of this steam is injected directly into plant processes, vented, leaked, or removed via blowdown, roughly 354 MGD of freshwater must be introduced to these systems as makeup. This freshwater consumption rate is approximately 11% of that for the entire U.S. manufacturing sector, or the total residential consumption rate of Los Angeles, the second largest city in the U.S. The majority of this consumption (>94%) can be attributed to the food, paper, petroleum refining, and chemicals industries. The results of the analyses presented herein provide previously unavailable detail on water consumption in U.S. industrial steam systems and highlight opportunities for combined energy and water savings.

Estimation and Prediction of Avoidable Health Care Costs of Cardiovascular Diseases and Type 2 Diabetes Through Adequate Dairy Food Consumption: A Systematic Review and Micro Simulation Modeling Study.

PubMed

Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jamshidi, Ahmad Reza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Mohammadi, Zahra; Mashayekhi, Atefeh; Shokraneh, Farhad; Rezai Hamami, Mohsen; Yazdani Bakhsh, Raziyeh; Shabaninejad, Hossien; Delavari, Sajad; Tehrani, Arash

2018-05-01

Recent evidence from prospective cohort studies show a relationship between consumption of dairy foods and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This association highlights the importance of dairy foods consumption in prevention of these diseases and also reduction of associated healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to estimate avoidable healthcare costs of CVD and T2D through adequate dairy foods consumption in Iran. This was a multistage modelling study. We conducted a systematic literature review in PubMed and EMBASE to identify any association between incidence of CVD and T2DM and dairy foods intake, and also associated relative risks. We obtained age- and sex-specific dairy foods consumption level and healthcare expenditures from national surveys and studies. Patient level simulation Markov models were constructed to predict the disease incidence, patient population size and associated healthcare costs for current and optimal dairy foods consumption at different time horizons (1, 5, 10 and 20 years). All parameters including costs and transition probabilities were defined as statistical distributions in the models, and all analyses were conducted by accounting for first and second order uncertainty. The systematic review results indicated that dairy foods consumption was inversely associated with incidence of T2DM, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. We estimated that the introduction of a diet containing 3 servings of dairy foods per day may produce a $0.43 saving in annual per capita healthcare costs in Iran in the first year due to saving in cost of CVD and T2DM treatment. The estimated savings in per capita healthcare costs were $8.42, $39.97 and $190.25 in 5, 10 and 20-years' time, respectively. Corresponding total aggregated avoidable costs for the entire Iranian population within the study time horizons were $33.83, $661.31, $3,138.21 and $14,934.63 million, respectively. Our analysis demonstrated that increasing dairy foods consumption to recommended levels would be associated with reductions in healthcare costs. Further randomized trial studies are required to investigate the effect of dairy foods intake on cost of CVD and T2DM in the population. © 2018 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Dietary and economic effects of eliminating shortfall in fruit intake on nutrient intakes and diet cost.

PubMed

Rehm, Colin D; Drewnowski, Adam

2016-07-07

Children in the United States do not consume the recommended amounts of fruit. The economic and dietary consequences of meeting the shortfall in fruit consumption have not been evaluated. Analyses were based on a nationally representative sample of 4-18 year-old children (n = 2,647) from the 2009-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The shortfall in total fruit consumption for each child was estimated based on the USDA MyPlate recommendations. The potential impact of filling the shortfall in total fruit consumption was projected with whole fruit alone (WF model) or a combination of 100 % fruit juice and whole fruit (FJ + WF model). Juice consumption was capped using American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) standards. The USDA national food prices database was used to estimate the cost of meeting the dietary recommendations for fruit. Selected nutrient and mineral intakes, as well as daily diet cost were estimated after eliminating the shortfall in fruit consumption. Among all children, vitamin C (+22.8 mg [95 % CI 21.4, 24.1] in the WF model and +48.1 mg [95 % CI 45.2, 51.1] in the FJ + WF model) and potassium intakes (+203 mg [95 % CI 190, 215] in WF and +263 mg [95 % CI 248, 280] in FJ + WF) were increased in both models. The FJ + WF model resulted in a marginal increase in dietary fiber (e.g., a relative change less than 10 %), while the WF model resulted in a meaningful increase in dietary fiber (e.g., a relative change greater than 10 %; +2.2 g [95 % CI 2.1, 2.3]). Conversely, the WF model resulted in only a marginal increase in calcium, while the FJ + WF model resulted in a meaningful increase in calcium (+85 mg [95 % CI 79, 89]). Calories were increased in all models (+4.5 % [95 % CI 4.1, 4.9 %] for FJ + WF and +3.5 % [95 % CI 3.2, 3.7 %] for WF). Meeting the fruit shortfall with whole fruit alone increased estimated diet costs by 9.9 % (+$0.44/d [95 % CI 0.42, 0.47]), while the fruit juice/whole fruit combination increased diet costs by 5.2 % (+$0.23/d [95 % CI 0.22, 0.25]). Meeting fruit consumption guidelines without a substantial increase in diet costs may be a challenge. Combining whole fruit with 100 % fruit juice capped at AAP standards may be one approach to meeting fruit recommendations within cost constraints. Identifying approaches to increasing whole fruit consumption in as cost-neutral a fashion as possible should be a priority.

Marine effect of introduced salmonids: Prey consumption by exotic steelhead and anadromous brown trout in the Patagonian Continental Shelf

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ciancio, J.; Beauchamp, D.A.; Pascual, M.

2010-01-01

On the basis of stable isotope analysis, we estimated the marine diet of the most abundant anadromous salmonid species in Patagonian Atlantic basins. The results were coupled with bioenergetic and population models to estimate the consumption of food by salmonids and was compared with that by seabirds, the most abundant top predators in the area. Amphipods were the main salmonid prey, followed by sprat, silversides, squid, and euphausiids. The total consumption, even assuming large anadromous salmonid populations, represented <5% of the total consumption by seabirds. We also identified the particular seabird colonies and artisanal fisheries with which salmonid trophic interactions at a more local scale could be significant. ?? 2010, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

USING TIME VARIANT VOLTAGE TO CALCULATE ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND POWER USE OF BUILDING SYSTEMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makhmalbaf, Atefe; Augenbroe , Godfried

2015-12-09

Buildings are the main consumers of electricity across the world. However, in the research and studies related to building performance assessment, the focus has been on evaluating the energy efficiency of buildings whereas the instantaneous power efficiency has been overlooked as an important aspect of total energy consumption. As a result, we never developed adequate models that capture both thermal and electrical characteristics (e.g., voltage) of building systems to assess the impact of variations in the power system and emerging technologies of the smart grid on buildings energy and power performance and vice versa. This paper argues that the powermore » performance of buildings as a function of electrical parameters should be evaluated in addition to systems’ mechanical and thermal behavior. The main advantage of capturing electrical behavior of building load is to better understand instantaneous power consumption and more importantly to control it. Voltage is one of the electrical parameters that can be used to describe load. Hence, voltage dependent power models are constructed in this work and they are coupled with existing thermal energy models. Lack of models that describe electrical behavior of systems also adds to the uncertainty of energy consumption calculations carried out in building energy simulation tools such as EnergyPlus, a common building energy modeling and simulation tool. To integrate voltage-dependent power models with thermal models, the thermal cycle (operation mode) of each system was fed into the voltage-based electrical model. Energy consumption of systems used in this study were simulated using EnergyPlus. Simulated results were then compared with estimated and measured power data. The mean square error (MSE) between simulated, estimated, and measured values were calculated. Results indicate that estimated power has lower MSE when compared with measured data than simulated results. Results discussed in this paper will illustrate the significance of enhancing building energy models with electrical characteristics. This would support different studies such as those related to modernization of the power system that require micro scale building-grid interaction, evaluating building energy efficiency with power efficiency considerations, and also design and control decisions that rely on accuracy of building energy simulation results.« less

Did the tobacco industry inflate estimates of illicit cigarette consumption in Asia? An empirical analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; McGhee, Sarah M; Townsend, Joy; Lam, Tai Hing; Hedley, Anthony J

2015-06-01

Estimates of illicit cigarette consumption are limited and the data obtained from studies funded by the tobacco industry have a tendency to inflate them. This study aimed to validate an industry-funded estimate of 35.9% for Hong Kong using a framework taken from an industry-funded report, but with more transparent data sources. Illicit cigarette consumption was estimated as the difference between total cigarette consumption and the sum of legal domestic sales and legal personal imports (duty-free consumption). Reliable data from government reports and scientifically valid routine sources were used to estimate the total cigarette consumption by Hong Kong smokers and legal domestic sales in Hong Kong. Consumption by visitors and legal duty-free consumption by Hong Kong passengers were estimated under three scenarios for the assumptions to examine the uncertainty around the estimate. A two-way sensitivity analysis was conducted using different levels of possible undeclared smoking and under-reporting of self-reported daily consumption. Illicit cigarette consumption was estimated to be about 8.2-15.4% of the total cigarette consumption in Hong Kong in 2012 with a midpoint estimate of 11.9%, as compared with the industry-funded estimate of 35.9% of cigarette consumption. The industry-funded estimate was inflated by 133-337% of the probable true value. Only with significant levels of under-reporting of daily cigarette consumption and undeclared smoking could we approximate the value reported in the industry-funded study. The industry-funded estimate inflates the likely levels of illicit cigarette consumption. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Study on highway transportation greenhouse effect external cost estimation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Chunchao; Pan, Fengming

2017-03-01

This paper focuses on estimating highway transportation greenhouse gas emission volume and greenhouse gas external cost in China. At first, composition and characteristics of greenhouse gases were analysed about highway transportation emissions. Secondly, an improved model of emission volume was presented on basis of highway transportation energy consumption, which may be calculated by virtue of main affecting factors such as the annual average operation miles of each type of the motor vehicles and the unit consumption level. the model of emission volume was constructed which considered not only the availability of energy consumption statistics of highway transportation but also the greenhouse gas emission factors of various fuel types issued by IPCC. Finally, the external cost estimation model was established about highway transportation greenhouse gas emission which combined emission volume with the unit external cost of CO2 emissions. An example was executed to confirm presented model which ranged from 2011 to 2015 Year in China. The calculated result shows that the highway transportation total emission volume and greenhouse gas external cost are growing up, but the unit turnover external cost is steadily declining. On the whole overall, the situation is still grim about highway transportation greenhouse gas emission, and the green transportation strategy should be put into effect as soon as possible.

Technology acceptance perception for promotion of sustainable consumption.

PubMed

Biswas, Aindrila; Roy, Mousumi

2018-03-01

Economic growth in the past decades has resulted in change in consumption pattern and emergence of tech-savvy generation with unprecedented increase in the usage of social network technology. In this paper, the technology acceptance value gap adapted from the technology acceptance model has been applied as a tool supporting social network technology usage and subsequent promotion of sustainable consumption. The data generated through the use of structured questionnaires have been analyzed using structural equation modeling. The validity of the model and path estimates signifies the robustness of Technology Acceptance value gap in adjudicating the efficiency of social network technology usage in augmentation of sustainable consumption and awareness. The results indicate that subjective norm gap, ease-of-operation gap, and quality of green information gap have the most adversarial impact on social network technology usage. Eventually social networking technology usage has been identified as a significant antecedent of sustainable consumption.

Functional forms and price elasticities in a discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vásquez Lavín, F. A.; Hernandez, J. I.; Ponce, R. D.; Orrego, S. A.

2017-07-01

During recent decades, water demand estimation has gained considerable attention from scholars. From an econometric perspective, the most used functional forms include log-log and linear specifications. Despite the advances in this field and the relevance for policymaking, little attention has been paid to the functional forms used in these estimations, and most authors have not provided justifications for their selection of functional forms. A discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand is estimated using six functional forms (log-log, full-log, log-quadratic, semilog, linear, and Stone-Geary), and the expected consumption and price elasticity are evaluated. From a policy perspective, our results highlight the relevance of functional form selection for both the expected consumption and price elasticity.

Development OF A Multi-Scale Framework for Mapping Global Evapotranspiration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hain, Christopher R.; Anderson, Martha C.; Schull, Mitchell; Neale, Christopher; Zhan, Xiwu

2017-01-01

As the worlds water resources come under increasing tension due to dual stressors of climate change and population growth, accurate knowledge of water consumption through evapotranspiration (ET) over a range in spatial scales will be critical in developing adaptation strategies. Remote sensing methods for monitoring consumptive water use (e.g, ET) are becoming increasingly important, especially in areas of significant water and food insecurity. One method to estimate ET from satellite-based methods, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model uses the change in mid-morning land surface temperature to estimate the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes which are then used to estimate daily ET. This presentation will outline several recent enhancements to the ALEXI modeling system, with a focus on global ET and drought monitoring.

Effects of activity and energy budget balancing algorithm on laboratory performance of a fish bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; David, Solomon R.; Pothoven, Steven A.

2012-01-01

We evaluated the performance of the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for lake trout Salvelinus namaycush that were fed ad libitum in laboratory tanks under regimes of low activity and high activity. In addition, we compared model performance under two different model algorithms: (1) balancing the lake trout energy budget on day t based on lake trout energy density on day t and (2) balancing the lake trout energy budget on day t based on lake trout energy density on day t + 1. Results indicated that the model significantly underestimated consumption for both inactive and active lake trout when algorithm 1 was used and that the degree of underestimation was similar for the two activity levels. In contrast, model performance substantially improved when using algorithm 2, as no detectable bias was found in model predictions of consumption for inactive fish and only a slight degree of overestimation was detected for active fish. The energy budget was accurately balanced by using algorithm 2 but not by using algorithm 1. Based on the results of this study, we recommend the use of algorithm 2 to estimate food consumption by fish in the field. Our study results highlight the importance of accurately accounting for changes in fish energy density when balancing the energy budget; furthermore, these results have implications for the science of evaluating fish bioenergetics model performance and for more accurate estimation of food consumption by fish in the field when fish energy density undergoes relatively rapid changes.

The Effect of the California Tobacco Control Program on Smoking Prevalence, Cigarette Consumption, and Healthcare Costs: 1989–2008

PubMed Central

Lightwood, James; Glantz, Stanton A.

2013-01-01

Background Previous research has shown that tobacco control funding in California has reduced per capita cigarette consumption and per capita healthcare expenditures. This paper refines our earlier model by estimating the effect of California tobacco control funding on current smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption per smoker and the effect of prevalence and consumption on per capita healthcare expenditures. The results are used to calculate new estimates of the effect of the California Tobacco Program. Methodology/Principal Findings Using state-specific aggregate data, current smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption per smoker are modeled as functions of cumulative California and control states' per capita tobacco control funding, cigarette price, and per capita income. Per capita healthcare expenditures are modeled as a function of prevalence of current smoking, cigarette consumption per smoker, and per capita income. One additional dollar of cumulative per capita tobacco control funding is associated with reduction in current smoking prevalence of 0.0497 (SE.00347) percentage points and current smoker cigarette consumption of 1.39 (SE.132) packs per smoker per year. Reductions of one percentage point in current smoking prevalence and one pack smoked per smoker are associated with $35.4 (SE $9.85) and $3.14 (SE.786) reductions in per capita healthcare expenditure, respectively (2010 dollars), using the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) measure of healthcare spending. Conclusions/Significance Between FY 1989 and 2008 the California Tobacco Program cost $2.4 billion and led to cumulative NIPA healthcare expenditure savings of $134 (SE $30.5) billion. PMID:23418411

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: impact on overweight and obesity in Germany.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Stolpe, Michael

2017-01-17

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) increases the risk of overweight and obesity. Taxing SSBs could decrease daily energy consumption and body weight. This model-based study evaluated the impact of a 20% SSB-sales tax on overweight and obesity in the context of Germany. The population aged 15-79 years was modelled. Taxation was assumed to affect energy consumption via demand elasticities, which affected weight and BMI. Model-based analysis was performed to estimate the tax impact on BMI in different age, gender and income groups. Implementing a 20% SSB tax reduced energy consumption mainly in younger age groups, males, and those with low income. Taxation decreased the mean BMI in younger groups, with the largest decrease in those aged 20-29 years, while effects in groups 60 years or above were minimal. In absolute terms, taxation was estimated to avoid 1,028,000 (-3% relative reduction) overweight individuals and 479,000 obese individuals (-4%). Overweight decreased the most in males aged 20-29 years (408,000 fewer cases /-22%), the same applied for obesity (204,000/-22%). An SSB tax could have significant impact on overweight and obesity, which could translate into substantial reductions of morbidity and mortality.

Energy demand and environmental implications in urban transport — Case of Delhi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, Ranjan Kumar

A simple model of passenger transport in the city of Delhi has been developed using a computer-based software called—Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) and the associated Environmental Database (EDB) model. The hierarchical structure of LEAP represents the traffic patterns in terms of passenger travel demand, mode (rail/road), type of vehicle and occupancy (persons per vehicle). Transport database in Delhi together with fuel consumption values for the vehicle types, formed the basis of the transport demand and energy consumption calculations. Emission factors corresponding to the actual vehicle types and driving conditions in Delhi is introduced into the EDB and linked to the energy consumption values for estimating total emission of CO, HC, NO x, SO 2 Pb and TSP. The LEAP model is used to estimate total energy demand and the vehicular emissions for the base year-1990/91 and extrapolate for the future—1994/95, 2000/01, 2004/05 and 2009/10, respectively. The model is run under five alternative scenarios to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement in the transport sector of Delhi and also reduce emission. The prime objective is to arrive at an optimal transport policy which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution.

Integrated Evaluation of Reliability and Power Consumption of Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Dâmaso, Antônio; Maciel, Paulo

2017-01-01

Power consumption is a primary interest in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), and a large number of strategies have been proposed to evaluate it. However, those approaches usually neither consider reliability issues nor the power consumption of applications executing in the network. A central concern is the lack of consolidated solutions that enable us to evaluate the power consumption of applications and the network stack also considering their reliabilities. To solve this problem, we introduce a fully automatic solution to design power consumption aware WSN applications and communication protocols. The solution presented in this paper comprises a methodology to evaluate the power consumption based on the integration of formal models, a set of power consumption and reliability models, a sensitivity analysis strategy to select WSN configurations and a toolbox named EDEN to fully support the proposed methodology. This solution allows accurately estimating the power consumption of WSN applications and the network stack in an automated way. PMID:29113078

Estimation of 1945 to 1957 food consumption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, D.M.; Bates, D.J.; Marsh, T.L.

This report details the methods used and the results of the study on the estimated historic levels of food consumption by individuals in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) study area from 1945--1957. This period includes the time of highest releases from Hanford and is the period for which data are being collected in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study. These estimates provide the food-consumption inputs for the HEDR database of individual diets. This database will be an input file in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Code (HEDRIC) computer model that will be used to calculate the radiation dose. Themore » report focuses on fresh milk, eggs, lettuce, and spinach. These foods were chosen because they have been found to be significant contributors to radiation dose based on the Technical Steering Panel dose decision level.« less

Modeling of lighting behaviour of a hybrid lighting system in inner spaces of Building of Electrical Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amado, L.; Osma, G.; Villamizar, R.

2016-07-01

This paper presents the modelling of lighting behaviour of a hybrid lighting system - HLS in inner spaces for tropical climate. HLS aims to mitigate the problem of high electricity consumption used by artificial lighting in buildings. These systems integrate intelligently the daylight and artificial light through control strategies. However, selection of these strategies usually depends on expertise of designer and of available budget. In order to improve the selection process of the control strategies, this paper analyses the Electrical Engineering Building (EEB) case, initially modelling of lighting behaviour is established for the HLS of a classroom and an office. This allows estimating the illuminance level of the mixed lighting in the space, and energy consumption by artificial light according to different lighting control techniques, a control strategy based on occupancy and a combination of them. The model considers the concept of Daylight Factor (DF) for the estimating of daylight illuminance on the work plane for tropical climatic conditions. The validation of the model was carried out by comparing the measured and model-estimated indoor illuminances.

Alcohol-impaired driving: average quantity consumed and frequency of drinking do matter.

PubMed

Birdsall, William C; Reed, Beth Glover; Huq, Syeda S; Wheeler, Laura; Rush, Sarah

2012-01-01

The objective of this article is to estimate and validate a logistic model of alcohol-impaired driving using previously ignored alcohol consumption behaviors, other risky behaviors, and demographic characteristics as independent variables. The determinants of impaired driving are estimated using the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) surveys. Variables used in a logistic model to explain alcohol-impaired driving are not only standard sociodemographic variables and bingeing but also frequency of drinking and average quantity consumed, as well as other risky behaviors. We use interactions to understand how being female and being young affect impaired driving. Having estimated our model using the 1997 survey, we validated our model using the BRFSS data for 1999. Drinking 9 or more times in the past month doubled the odds of impaired driving. The greater average consumption of alcohol per session, the greater the odds of driving impaired, especially for persons in the highest quartile of alcohol consumed. Bingeing has the greatest effect on impaired driving. Seat belt use is the one risky behavior found to be related to such driving. Sociodemographic effects are consistent with earlier research. Being young (18-30) interacts with two of the alcohol consumption variables and being a woman interacts with always wearing a seat belt. Our model was robust in the validation analysis. All 3 dimensions of drinking behavior are important determinants of alcohol-impaired driving, including frequency and average quantity consumed. Including these factors in regressions improves the estimates of the effects of all variables.

Abusive alcohol consumption among adolescents: a predictive model for maximizing early detection and responses.

PubMed

de Freitas Ferreira, M; de Moraes, C L; Braga, J U; Reichenheim, M E; da Veiga, G V

2018-06-01

To present a predictive model of alcohol abuse among adolescents based on prevalence projections in various population subgroups. Cross-sectional study. The sample consisted of 785 adolescents enrolled in the second year of high school in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Alcohol consumption was assessed using the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test. Socio-economic, demographic, family, individuals, and school-related variables were examined as potential predictors. The logit model was used to estimate the prevalence projections. Model fitting was examined in relation to the observed data set, and in a subset, that was generated from 200 subsamples of individuals via a bootstrap process using general fit estimators, discrimination, and calibration measures. About 25.5% of the adolescents were classified as positive for alcohol abuse. Being male, being 17-19 years old, not living with mothers, presenting symptoms suggestive of binge eating, having used a strategy of weight reduction in the last 3 months, and, especially, being a victim of family violence were important predictors of abusive consumption of alcohol. While the model's prevalence projection in the absence of these features was 8%, it reaches 68% in the presence of all predictors. Knowledge of predictive characteristics of alcohol abuse is essential for screening, early detection of positive cases, and establishing interventions to reduce consumption among adolescents. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of NARCCAP Model Projections to Develop a Future Typical Meteorological Year and Estimate the Impact of a Changing Climate on Building Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, S. L.; Takle, E. S.; Passe, U.; Kalvelage, K.

2013-12-01

Current simulations of building energy consumption use weather input files based on the past thirty years of climate observations. These 20th century climate conditions may be inadequate when designing buildings meant to function well into the 21st century. An alternative is using model projections of climate change to estimate future risk to the built environment. In this study, model-projected changes in climate were combined with existing typical meteorological year data to create future typical meteorological year data. These data were then formatted for use in EnergyPlus simulation software to evaluate their potential impact on commercial building energy consumption. The modeled climate data were taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP uses results of global climate models to drive regional climate models, also known as dynamical downscaling. This downscaling gives higher resolution results over specific locations, and the multiple global/regional climate model combinations provide a unique opportunity to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections and their impacts. Our results show a projected decrease in heating energy consumption and a projected increase in cooling energy consumption for nine locations across the United States for all model combinations. Warmer locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 30% to 45% and an increase in cooling load of around 25% to 35%. Colder locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 15% to 25% and an increase in cooling load of around 40% to 70%. The change in net energy consumption is determined by the balance between the magnitudes of heating change and cooling change. Net energy consumption is projected to increase by an average of 5% for lower-latitude locations and decrease by an average of 5% for higher-latitude locations. With these projected annual and seasonal changes presenting strong evidence for the unsuitable nature of current building practices holding up under future climate change, we recommend using our methods and results to make modifications and adaptations to existing buildings and to aid in the design of future buildings.

Changes in cigarette prices, affordability, and brand-tier consumption after a tobacco tax increase in Thailand: Evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys, 2009 and 2011

PubMed Central

Husain, Muhammad Jami; Kostova, Deliana; Mbulo, Lazarous; Benjakul, Sarunya; Kengganpanich, Mondha; Andes, Linda

2017-01-01

Despite the 2009 implementation of a tobacco tax increase in Thailand, smoking rates remained unchanged between 2009 and 2011. Prior evidence has linked cigarette tax increases to compensatory behaviours aimed at lowering the cost of smoking, such as switching to lower-priced cigarette brands. Using data from 2009 and 2011 Global Adult Tobacco Surveys in Thailand, we estimated unadjusted changes in cigarette prices paid, cigarette affordability, and consumption of cigarettes in three price categories classified as upper-, middle-, and lower-priced brand tiers (or price tertiles). We used ordered logit regression to analyse the correlates of price-tier choice and to estimate the change in price-tier consumption adjusted for demographic and region characteristics. Between 2009 and 2011, real cigarette prices increased, but the affordability of cigarettes remained unchanged overall. There was a significant reduction in the consumption of cigarette brands in the top price-tier overall, accompanied by increases in the consumption of brands in the bottom and middle price-tiers, depending on the region. Adjusted estimates from the logit models indicate that, on average, the proportion of smokers selecting brands from upper- and middle price-tiers decreased while consumption of lower price-tier brands increased during the study period. The estimated shifts in consumption from more expensive to less expensive cigarette brands and the overall lack of change in cigarette affordability in Thailand between 2009 and 2011 are both factors that may have contributed to the observed lack of change in smoking rates after the 2009 tax increase. PMID:28579499

Off-Highway Gasoline Consuption Estimation Models Used in the Federal Highway Administration Attribution Process: 2008 Updates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, Ho-Ling; Davis, Stacy Cagle

2009-12-01

This report is designed to document the analysis process and estimation models currently used by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to estimate the off-highway gasoline consumption and public sector fuel consumption. An overview of the entire FHWA attribution process is provided along with specifics related to the latest update (2008) on the Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model and the Public Use of Gasoline Model. The Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model is made up of five individual modules, one for each of the off-highway categories: agricultural, industrial and commercial, construction, aviation, and marine. This 2008 update of the off-highway models was the secondmore » major update (the first model update was conducted during 2002-2003) after they were originally developed in mid-1990. The agricultural model methodology, specifically, underwent a significant revision because of changes in data availability since 2003. Some revision to the model was necessary due to removal of certain data elements used in the original estimation method. The revised agricultural model also made use of some newly available information, published by the data source agency in recent years. The other model methodologies were not drastically changed, though many data elements were updated to improve the accuracy of these models. Note that components in the Public Use of Gasoline Model were not updated in 2008. A major challenge in updating estimation methods applied by the public-use model is that they would have to rely on significant new data collection efforts. In addition, due to resource limitation, several components of the models (both off-highway and public-us models) that utilized regression modeling approaches were not recalibrated under the 2008 study. An investigation of the Environmental Protection Agency's NONROAD2005 model was also carried out under the 2008 model update. Results generated from the NONROAD2005 model were analyzed, examined, and compared, to the extent that is possible on the overall totals, to the current FHWA estimates. Because NONROAD2005 model was designed for emission estimation purposes (i.e., not for measuring fuel consumption), it covers different equipment populations from those the FHWA models were based on. Thus, a direct comparison generally was not possible in most sectors. As a result, NONROAD2005 data were not used in the 2008 update of the FHWA off-highway models. The quality of fuel use estimates directly affect the data quality in many tables published in the Highway Statistics. Although updates have been made to the Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model and the Public Use Gasoline Model, some challenges remain due to aging model equations and discontinuation of data sources.« less

Economics of tobacco control in Pakistan: estimating elasticities of cigarette demand.

PubMed

Mushtaq, Nasir; Mushtaq, Saghir; Beebe, Laura A

2011-11-01

Despite ongoing global efforts for tobacco control, low-income countries with struggling economies have challenges to effectively implement tobacco policies and programs. Due to the complexity of the tobacco control issue and lack of comprehensive policies, tobacco use is increasing in Pakistan. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of taxes on tobacco demand in Pakistan. Various surveillance indicators of tobacco use were assessed from 2001 to 2009. Price elasticities of cigarette demand in Pakistan were investigated. During 2003-2009, annual per capita cigarette consumption increased by 30%. Analysis of economic data indicated that a 10% increase in cigarette prices would lead to 4.8% decrease in cigarette consumption while controlling for per capita income in the short term. The long-term price elasticities of cigarette demand were estimated at -1.17. The estimations provided support for myopic addiction model for cigarette consumption in Pakistan. Increasing tobacco taxes would have a significant impact on tobacco consumption in Pakistan. Cigarette consumption could decrease by 11.7% in the long term if there was a 10% increase in its price. The results of this study should benefit policymakers as it provides information on the characteristics of the cigarette consumption and cigarette demand function that may help in planning tobacco control strategies in low-income and middle-income countries.

Resource Consumption of a Diffusion Model for Prevention Programs: The PROSPER Delivery System

PubMed Central

Crowley, Daniel M.; Jones, Damon E.; Greenberg, Mark T.; Feinberg, Mark E.; Spoth, Richard L.

2012-01-01

Purpose To prepare public systems to implement evidence-based prevention programs for adolescents, it is necessary to have accurate estimates of programs’ resource consumption. When evidence-based programs are implemented through a specialized prevention delivery system, additional costs may be incurred during cultivation of the delivery infrastructure. Currently, there is limited research on the resource consumption of such delivery systems and programs. In this article, we describe the resource consumption of implementing the PROSPER (PROmoting School–Community–University Partnerships to Enhance Resilience) delivery system for a period of 5 years in one state, and how the financial and economic costs of its implementation affect local communities as well as the Cooperative Extension and University systems. Methods We used a six-step framework for conducting cost analysis, using a Cost–Procedure–Process–Outcome Analysis model (Yates, Analyzing costs, procedures, processes, and outcomes in human services: An introduction, 1996; Yates, 2009). This method entails defining the delivery System; bounding cost parameters; identifying, quantifying, and valuing systemic resource Consumption, and conducting sensitivity analysis of the cost estimates. Results Our analyses estimated both the financial and economic costs of the PROSPER delivery system. Evaluation of PROSPER illustrated how costs vary over time depending on the primacy of certain activities (e.g., team development, facilitator training, program implementation). Additionally, this work describes how the PROSPER model cultivates a complex resource infrastructure and provides preliminary evidence of systemic efficiencies. Conclusions This work highlights the need to study the costs of diffusion across time and broadens definitions of what is essential for successful implementation. In particular, cost analyses offer innovative methodologies for analyzing the resource needs of prevention systems. PMID:22325131

The association of estimated salt intake with blood pressure in a Viet Nam national survey.

PubMed

Jensen, Paul N; Bao, Tran Quoc; Huong, Tran Thi Thanh; Heckbert, Susan R; Fitzpatrick, Annette L; LoGerfo, James P; Ngoc, Truong Le Van; Mokdad, Ali H

2018-01-01

To evaluate the association of salt consumption with blood pressure in Viet Nam, a developing country with a high level of salt consumption. Analysis of a nationally representative sample of Vietnamese adults 25-65 years of age who were surveyed using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to Surveillance protocol. Participants who reported acute illness, pregnancy, or current use of antihypertensive medications were excluded. Daily salt consumption was estimated from fasting mid-morning spot urine samples. Associations of salt consumption with systolic blood pressure and prevalent hypertension were assessed using adjusted linear and generalized linear models. Interaction terms were tested to assess differences by age, smoking, alcohol consumption, and rural/urban status. The analysis included 2,333 participants (mean age: 37 years, 46% male, 33% urban). The average estimated salt consumption was 10g/day. No associations of salt consumption with blood pressure or prevalent hypertension were observed at a national scale in men or women. The associations did not differ in subgroups defined by age, smoking, or alcohol consumption; however, associations differed between urban and rural participants (p-value for interaction of urban/rural status with salt consumption, p = 0.02), suggesting that higher salt consumption may be associated with higher systolic blood pressure in urban residents but lower systolic blood pressure in rural residents. Although there was no evidence of an association at a national level, associations of salt consumption with blood pressure differed between urban and rural residents in Viet Nam. The reasons for this differential association are not clear, and given the large rate of rural to urban migration experienced in Viet Nam, this topic warrants further investigation.

The association of estimated salt intake with blood pressure in a Viet Nam national survey

PubMed Central

Bao, Tran Quoc; Huong, Tran Thi Thanh; Heckbert, Susan R.; Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; LoGerfo, James P.; Ngoc, Truong Le Van; Mokdad, Ali H.

2018-01-01

Objective To evaluate the association of salt consumption with blood pressure in Viet Nam, a developing country with a high level of salt consumption. Design and setting Analysis of a nationally representative sample of Vietnamese adults 25–65 years of age who were surveyed using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to Surveillance protocol. Participants who reported acute illness, pregnancy, or current use of antihypertensive medications were excluded. Daily salt consumption was estimated from fasting mid-morning spot urine samples. Associations of salt consumption with systolic blood pressure and prevalent hypertension were assessed using adjusted linear and generalized linear models. Interaction terms were tested to assess differences by age, smoking, alcohol consumption, and rural/urban status. Results The analysis included 2,333 participants (mean age: 37 years, 46% male, 33% urban). The average estimated salt consumption was 10g/day. No associations of salt consumption with blood pressure or prevalent hypertension were observed at a national scale in men or women. The associations did not differ in subgroups defined by age, smoking, or alcohol consumption; however, associations differed between urban and rural participants (p-value for interaction of urban/rural status with salt consumption, p = 0.02), suggesting that higher salt consumption may be associated with higher systolic blood pressure in urban residents but lower systolic blood pressure in rural residents. Conclusions Although there was no evidence of an association at a national level, associations of salt consumption with blood pressure differed between urban and rural residents in Viet Nam. The reasons for this differential association are not clear, and given the large rate of rural to urban migration experienced in Viet Nam, this topic warrants further investigation. PMID:29346423

Determinants of Antibiotic Consumption - Development of a Model using Partial Least Squares Regression based on Data from India.

PubMed

Tamhankar, Ashok J; Karnik, Shreyasee S; Stålsby Lundborg, Cecilia

2018-04-23

Antibiotic resistance, a consequence of antibiotic use, is a threat to health, with severe consequences for resource constrained settings. If determinants for human antibiotic use in India, a lower middle income country, with one of the highest antibiotic consumption in the world could be understood, interventions could be developed, having implications for similar settings. Year wise data for India, for potential determinants and antibiotic consumption, was sourced from publicly available databases for the years 2000-2010. Data was analyzed using Partial Least Squares regression and correlation between determinants and antibiotic consumption was evaluated, formulating 'Predictors' and 'Prediction models'. The 'prediction model' with the statistically most significant predictors (root mean square errors of prediction for train set-377.0 and test set-297.0) formulated from a combination of Health infrastructure + Surface transport infrastructure (HISTI), predicted antibiotic consumption within 95% confidence interval and estimated an antibiotic consumption of 11.6 standard units/person (14.37 billion standard units totally; standard units = number of doses sold in the country; a dose being a pill, capsule, or ampoule) for India for 2014. The HISTI model may become useful in predicting antibiotic consumption for countries/regions having circumstances and data similar to India, but without resources to measure actual data of antibiotic consumption.

Nutritional status and the influence of TV consumption on female body size ideals in populations recently exposed to the media.

PubMed

Jucker, Jean-Luc; Thornborrow, Tracey; Beierholm, Ulrik; Burt, D Michael; Barton, Robert A; Evans, Elizabeth H; Jamieson, Mark A; Tovée, Martin J; Boothroyd, Lynda G

2017-08-16

Television consumption influences perceptions of attractive female body size. However, cross-cultural research examining media influence on body ideals is typically confounded by differences in the availability of reliable and diverse foodstuffs. 112 participants were recruited from 3 Nicaraguan villages that differed in television consumption and nutritional status, such that the contribution of both factors could be revealed. Participants completed a female figure preference task, reported their television consumption, and responded to several measures assessing nutritional status. Communities with higher television consumption and/or higher nutritional status preferred thinner female bodies than communities with lower television consumption and/or lower nutritional status. Bayesian mixed models estimated the plausible range of effects for television consumption, nutritional status, and other relevant variables on individual preferences. The model explained all meaningful differences between our low-nutrition villages, and television consumption, after sex, was the most likely of these predictors to contribute to variation in preferences (probability mass >95% when modelling only variables with zero-order associations with preferences, but only 90% when modelling all possible predictors). In contrast, we found no likely link with nutritional status. We thus found evidence that where media access and nutritional status are confounded, media is the more likely predictor of body ideals.

Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-01-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcoholsmore » and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule.« less

Estimating average alcohol consumption in the population using multiple sources: the case of Spain.

PubMed

Sordo, Luis; Barrio, Gregorio; Bravo, María J; Villalbí, Joan R; Espelt, Albert; Neira, Montserrat; Regidor, Enrique

2016-01-01

National estimates on per capita alcohol consumption are provided regularly by various sources and may have validity problems, so corrections are needed for monitoring and assessment purposes. Our objectives were to compare different alcohol availability estimates for Spain, to build the best estimate (actual consumption), characterize its time trend during 2001-2011, and quantify the extent to which other estimates (coverage) approximated actual consumption. Estimates were: alcohol availability from the Spanish Tax Agency (Tax Agency availability), World Health Organization (WHO availability) and other international agencies, self-reported purchases from the Spanish Food Consumption Panel, and self-reported consumption from population surveys. Analyses included calculating: between-agency discrepancy in availability, multisource availability (correcting Tax Agency availability by underestimation of wine and cider), actual consumption (adjusting multisource availability by unrecorded alcohol consumption/purchases and alcohol losses), and coverage of selected estimates. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Time trends were characterized by joinpoint regression. Between-agency discrepancy in alcohol availability remained high in 2011, mainly because of wine and spirits, although some decrease was observed during the study period. The actual consumption was 9.5 l of pure alcohol/person-year in 2011, decreasing 2.3 % annually, mainly due to wine and spirits. 2011 coverage of WHO availability, Tax Agency availability, self-reported purchases, and self-reported consumption was 99.5, 99.5, 66.3, and 28.0 %, respectively, generally with downward trends (last three estimates, especially self-reported consumption). The multisource availability overestimated actual consumption by 12.3 %, mainly due to tourism imbalance. Spanish estimates of per capita alcohol consumption show considerable weaknesses. Using uncorrected estimates, especially self-reported consumption, for monitoring or other purposes is misleading. To obtain conservative estimates of alcohol-attributable disease burden or heavy drinking prevalence, self-reported consumption should be shifted upwards by more than 85 % (91 % in 2011) of Tax Agency or WHO availability figures. The weaknesses identified can probably also be found worldwide, thus much empirical work remains to be done to improve estimates of per capita alcohol consumption.

The Potential Impact of a 20% Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Obesity in South African Adults: A Mathematical Model

PubMed Central

Manyema, Mercy; Veerman, Lennert J.; Chola, Lumbwe; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Sartorius, Benn; Labadarios, Demetre; Hofman, Karen J.

2014-01-01

Background/Objectives The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa. Methods A mathematical simulation model was constructed to estimate the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity. We used consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and a previous meta-analysis of studies on own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs to estimate the shift in daily energy consumption expected of increased prices of SSBs, and energy balance equations to estimate shifts in body mass index. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the SA National Income Dynamics Survey 2012 to the lognormal distribution and shifting the mean values. Uncertainty was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. Results A 20% tax is predicted to reduce energy intake by about 36kJ per day (95% CI: 9-68kJ). Obesity is projected to reduce by 3.8% (95% CI: 0.6%–7.1%) in men and 2.4% (95% CI: 0.4%–4.4%) in women. The number of obese adults would decrease by over 220 000 (95% CI: 24 197–411 759). Conclusions Taxing SSBs could impact the burden of obesity in South Africa particularly in young adults, as one component of a multi-faceted effort to prevent obesity. PMID:25136987

Lateral Flow of Carbon From U.S. Agricultural Lands: Carbon Uptake, Consumption, and Respiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabesan, A.; West, T. O.; Roddy, A. B.; Marland, G.; Bhaduri, B. L.

2005-12-01

Net carbon exchange between biomass and the atmosphere can be estimated and modeled on a regional basis to understand the effects of land-use change on the carbon cycle and on net CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. However, within ecosystems that are managed to produce commodities for consumption (i.e., agriculture and forest lands), carbon can be transported laterally when crops or timber are harvested, in addition to being transported vertically between plants and the atmosphere. The spatial and temporal domain over which carbon uptake, transport, and release occur has implications for regional carbon studies. For example, carbon may be taken up by crops in one region, but released through human consumption in another region. Estimates of lateral transport and release of carbon may therefore contribute another dimension to bottom-up carbon modeling, and may also be used as input for comparison to top-down atmospheric modeling. Our research to date has focused on the uptake, consumption, and respiration of CO2 associated with agricultural crops and related food commodities. We estimate a net uptake of 495 Tg C on U.S. croplands in 2000. This uptake occurs primarily in the Midwestern U.S. Human respiration of CO2 contributed about 31 Tg C and livestock emitted about 77 Tg C as CO2 and CH4 in 2000. Estimates of CO2 from food wastes in municipal landfills and from human excrement in wastewater treatment plants are currently being developed. The spatial distribution of CO2 uptake and release are mapped, respectively, at the county level and at 1km resolution that is commensurate with Landscan USA population data.

Modeling crop residue burning experiments to evaluate smoke emissions and plume transport.

PubMed

Zhou, Luxi; Baker, Kirk R; Napelenok, Sergey L; Pouliot, George; Elleman, Robert; O'Neill, Susan M; Urbanski, Shawn P; Wong, David C

2018-06-15

Crop residue burning is a common land management practice that results in emissions of a variety of pollutants with negative health impacts. Modeling systems are used to estimate air quality impacts of crop residue burning to support retrospective regulatory assessments and also for forecasting purposes. Ground and airborne measurements from a recent field experiment in the Pacific Northwest focused on cropland residue burning was used to evaluate model performance in capturing surface and aloft impacts from the burning events. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was used to simulate multiple crop residue burns with 2 km grid spacing using field-specific information and also more general assumptions traditionally used to support National Emission Inventory based assessments. Field study specific information, which includes area burned, fuel consumption, and combustion completeness, resulted in increased biomass consumption by 123 tons (60% increase) on average compared to consumption estimated with default methods in the National Emission Inventory (NEI) process. Buoyancy heat flux, a key parameter for model predicted fire plume rise, estimated from fuel loading obtained from field measurements can be 30% to 200% more than when estimated using default field information. The increased buoyancy heat flux resulted in higher plume rise by 30% to 80%. This evaluation indicates that the regulatory air quality modeling system can replicate intensity and transport (horizontal and vertical) features for crop residue burning in this region when region-specific information is used to inform emissions and plume rise calculations. Further, previous vertical emissions allocation treatment of putting all cropland residue burning in the surface layer does not compare well with measured plume structure and these types of burns should be modeled more similarly to prescribed fires such that plume rise is based on an estimate of buoyancy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model (GEM) for Heavy- & Medium-Duty Vehicle Compliance

EPA Science Inventory

A regulatory vehicle simulation program was designed for determining greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fuel consumption by estimating the performance of technologies, verifying compliance with the regulatory standards and estimating the overall benefits of the program.

Paediatric HUS Cases Related to the Consumption of Raw Milk Sold by Vending Machines in Italy: Quantitative Risk Assessment Based on Escherichia coli O157 Official Controls over 7 years.

PubMed

Giacometti, F; Bonilauri, P; Piva, S; Scavia, G; Amatiste, S; Bianchi, D M; Losio, M N; Bilei, S; Cascone, G; Comin, D; Daminelli, P; Decastelli, L; Merialdi, G; Mioni, R; Peli, A; Petruzzelli, A; Tonucci, F; Liuzzo, G; Serraino, A

2017-11-01

A quantitative risk assessment (RA) was developed to estimate haemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) cases in paediatric population associated with the consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. The historical national evolution of raw milk consumption phenomenon since 2008, when consumer interest started to grow, and after 7 years of marketing adjustment, is outlined. Exposure assessment was based on the official Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC) microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2014, microbial growth during storage, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. In case of boiling milk before consumption, we assumed that the risk of HUS is fixed at zero. The model estimates clearly show that the public health significance of HUS cases due to raw milk STEC contamination depends on the current variability surrounding the risk profile of the food and the consumer behaviour has more impact than milk storage scenario. The estimated HUS cases predicted by our model are roughly in line with the effective STEC O157-associated HUS cases notified in Italy only when the proportion of consumers not boiling milk before consumption is assumed to be 1%. Raw milk consumption remains a source of E. coli O157:H7 for humans, but its overall relevance is likely to have subsided and significant caution should be exerted for temporal, geographical and consumers behaviour analysis. Health education programmes and regulatory actions are required to educate people, primarily children, on other STEC sources. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Use of Satellite-based Remote Sensing to inform Evapotranspiration parameters in Cropping System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhungel, S.; Barber, M. E.

2016-12-01

The objectives of this paper are to use an automated satellite-based remote sensing evapotranspiration (ET) model to assist in parameterization of a cropping system model (CropSyst) and to examine the variability of consumptive water use of various crops across the watershed. The remote sensing model is a modified version of the Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC™) energy balance model. We present the application of an automated python-based implementation of METRIC to estimate ET as consumptive water use for agricultural areas in three watersheds in Eastern Washington - Walla Walla, Lower Yakima and Okanogan. We used these ET maps with USDA crop data to identify the variability of crop growth and water use for the major crops in these three watersheds. Some crops, such as grapes and alfalfa, showed high variability in water use in the watershed while others, such as corn, had comparatively less variability. The results helped us to estimate the range and variability of various crop parameters that are used in CropSyst. The paper also presents a systematic approach to estimate parameters of CropSyst for a crop in a watershed using METRIC results. Our initial application of this approach was used to estimate irrigation application rate for CropSyst for a selected farm in Walla Walla and was validated by comparing crop growth (as Leaf Area Index - LAI) and consumptive water use (ET) from METRIC and CropSyst. This coupling of METRIC with CropSyst will allow for more robust parameters in CropSyst and will enable accurate predictions of changes in irrigation practices and crop rotation, which are a challenge in many cropping system models.

Changes in consumption of omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids in the United States during the 20th century123

PubMed Central

Blasbalg, Tanya L; Hibbeln, Joseph R; Ramsden, Christopher E; Majchrzak, Sharon F; Rawlings, Robert R

2011-01-01

Background: The consumption of omega-3 (n–3) and omega-6 (n–6) essential fatty acids in Western diets is thought to have changed markedly during the 20th century. Objective: We sought to quantify changes in the apparent consumption of essential fatty acids in the United States from 1909 to 1999. Design: We calculated the estimated per capita consumption of food commodities and availability of essential fatty acids from 373 food commodities by using economic disappearance data for each year from 1909 to 1999. Nutrient compositions for 1909 were modeled by using current foods (1909-C) and foods produced by traditional early 20th century practices (1909-T). Results: The estimated per capita consumption of soybean oil increased >1000-fold from 1909 to 1999. The availability of linoleic acid (LA) increased from 2.79% to 7.21% of energy (P < 0.000001), whereas the availability of α-linolenic acid (ALA) increased from 0.39% to 0.72% of energy by using 1909-C modeling. By using 1909-T modeling, LA was 2.23% of energy, and ALA was 0.35% of energy. The ratio of LA to ALA increased from 6.4 in 1909 to 10.0 in 1999. The 1909-T but not the 1909-C data showed substantial declines in dietary availability (percentage of energy) of n−6 arachidonic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). Predicted net effects of these dietary changes included declines in tissue n--3 highly unsaturated fatty acid status (36.81%, 1909-T; 31.28%, 1909-C; 22.95%, 1999) and declines in the estimated omega-3 index (8.28, 1909-T; 6.51, 1909-C; 3.84, 1999). Conclusion: The apparent increased consumption of LA, which was primarily from soybean oil, has likely decreased tissue concentrations of EPA and DHA during the 20th century. PMID:21367944

The Demand for Cigarettes in Tanzania and Implications for Tobacco Taxation Policy

PubMed Central

Kidane, Asmerom; Mduma, John; Naho, Alexis; Ngeh, Ernest Tingum; Hu, Teh-wei

2016-01-01

The study attempts to estimate the demand for cigarettes in Tanzania and presents simulation results on the effect of the cigarette excise tax on smoking participation, government revenue, and related topics. After briefly summarizing the magnitude and spread of cigarette consumption in the country, the paper reviews some empirical estimates from African and other countries. The 2008 Tanzanian household budget survey was used to estimate the demand for cigarettes in Tanzania. The descriptive statistics suggest that the smoking prevalence for Tanzania is 15.35 percent with low variability across expenditure (income) groups. Smoking intensity and per capita consumption were estimated at 7.08 cigarettes and 1.33 cigarettes, respectively, a relatively low value. A two-part demand equation model was used to estimate various elasticities. For the overall equation, the price elasticities of smoking participation, smoking intensity, and total elasticity were estimated at −0.879, −0.853, and −1.732, respectively. Compared to similar results in other developing countries, the estimates appear quite high. When estimated by expenditure (income) groups, the magnitude of the elasticity appears higher among high expenditure groups than among low expenditure groups. Two simulation exercises were undertaken. First, the effect of different excise rates on smoking participation rate, cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and related responses was estimated and highlighted. Second, the same exercise was undertaken to determine the effect of a given increase in the cigarette excise tax on various expenditure groups. The overall results suggest that an increase in the excise tax on cigarettes in Tanzania would reduce cigarette consumption and increase government tax revenue. PMID:27358905

The Demand for Cigarettes in Tanzania and Implications for Tobacco Taxation Policy.

PubMed

Kidane, Asmerom; Mduma, John; Naho, Alexis; Ngeh, Ernest Tingum; Hu, Teh-Wei

2015-10-01

The study attempts to estimate the demand for cigarettes in Tanzania and presents simulation results on the effect of the cigarette excise tax on smoking participation, government revenue, and related topics. After briefly summarizing the magnitude and spread of cigarette consumption in the country, the paper reviews some empirical estimates from African and other countries. The 2008 Tanzanian household budget survey was used to estimate the demand for cigarettes in Tanzania. The descriptive statistics suggest that the smoking prevalence for Tanzania is 15.35 percent with low variability across expenditure (income) groups. Smoking intensity and per capita consumption were estimated at 7.08 cigarettes and 1.33 cigarettes, respectively, a relatively low value. A two-part demand equation model was used to estimate various elasticities. For the overall equation, the price elasticities of smoking participation, smoking intensity, and total elasticity were estimated at -0.879, -0.853, and -1.732, respectively. Compared to similar results in other developing countries, the estimates appear quite high. When estimated by expenditure (income) groups, the magnitude of the elasticity appears higher among high expenditure groups than among low expenditure groups. Two simulation exercises were undertaken. First, the effect of different excise rates on smoking participation rate, cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and related responses was estimated and highlighted. Second, the same exercise was undertaken to determine the effect of a given increase in the cigarette excise tax on various expenditure groups. The overall results suggest that an increase in the excise tax on cigarettes in Tanzania would reduce cigarette consumption and increase government tax revenue.

Estimation of 1945 to 1957 food consumption. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project: Draft

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, D.M.; Bates, D.J.; Marsh, T.L.

This report details the methods used and the results of the study on the estimated historic levels of food consumption by individuals in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) study area from 1945--1957. This period includes the time of highest releases from Hanford and is the period for which data are being collected in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study. These estimates provide the food-consumption inputs for the HEDR database of individual diets. This database will be an input file in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Code (HEDRIC) computer model that will be used to calculate the radiation dose. Themore » report focuses on fresh milk, eggs, lettuce, and spinach. These foods were chosen because they have been found to be significant contributors to radiation dose based on the Technical Steering Panel dose decision level.« less

Estimation of 1945 to 1957 food consumption. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, D.M.; Bates, D.J.; Marsh, T.L.

This report details the methods used and the results of the study on the estimated historic levels of food consumption by individuals in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) study area from 1945--1957. This period includes the time of highest releases from Hanford and is the period for which data are being collected in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study. These estimates provide the food-consumption inputs for the HEDR database of individual diets. This database will be an input file in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Code (HEDRIC) computer model that will be used to calculate the radiation dose. Themore » report focuses on fresh milk, eggs, lettuce, and spinach. These foods were chosen because they have been found to be significant contributors to radiation dose based on the Technical Steering Panel dose decision level.« less

SUSTAINABILITY. Response to Comment on "Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet".

PubMed

Gerten, Dieter; Rockström, Johan; Heinke, Jens; Steffen, Will; Richardson, Katherine; Cornell, Sarah

2015-06-12

Jaramillo and Destouni claim that freshwater consumption is beyond the planetary boundary, based on high estimates of water cycle components, different definitions of water consumption, and extrapolation from a single case study. The difference from our analysis, based on mainstream assessments of global water consumption, highlights the need for clearer definitions of water cycle components and improved models and databases. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Greenhouse gas contribution of municipal solid waste collection: A case study in the city of Istanbul, Turkey.

PubMed

Korkut, Nafiz E; Yaman, Cevat; Küçükağa, Yusuf; Jaunich, Megan K; Demir, İbrahim

2018-02-01

This article estimates greenhouse gas emissions and global warming factors resulting from collection of municipal solid waste to the transfer stations or landfills in Istanbul for the year of 2015. The aim of this study is to quantify and compare diesel fuel consumption and estimate the greenhouse gas emissions and global warming factors associated with municipal solid waste collection of the 39 districts of Istanbul. Each district's greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the provision and combustion of diesel fuel was estimated by considering the number of collection trips and distances to municipal solid waste facilities. The estimated greenhouse gases and global warming factors for the districts varied from 61.2 to 2759.1 t CO 2 -eq and from 4.60 to 15.20 kg CO 2 -eq t -1 , respectively. The total greenhouse gas emission was estimated as 46.4E3 t CO 2 -eq. Lastly, the collection data from the districts was used to parameterise a collection model that can be used to estimate fuel consumption associated with municipal solid waste collection. This mechanistic model can then be used to predict future fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions associated with municipal solid waste collection based on projected population, waste generation, and distance to transfer stations and landfills. The greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by decreasing the trip numbers and trip distances, building more transfer stations around the city, and making sure that the collection trucks are full in each trip.

Cost-effectiveness of volumetric alcohol taxation in Australia.

PubMed

Byrnes, Joshua M; Cobiac, Linda J; Doran, Christopher M; Vos, Theo; Shakeshaft, Anthony P

2010-04-19

To estimate the potential health benefits and cost savings of an alcohol tax rate that applies equally to all alcoholic beverages based on their alcohol content (volumetric tax) and to compare the cost savings with the cost of implementation. Mathematical modelling of three scenarios of volumetric alcohol taxation for the population of Australia: (i) no change in deadweight loss, (ii) no change in tax revenue, and (iii) all alcoholic beverages taxed at the same rate as spirits. Estimated change in alcohol consumption, tax revenue and health benefit. The estimated cost of changing to a volumetric tax rate is $18 million. A volumetric tax that is deadweight loss-neutral would increase the cost of beer and wine and reduce the cost of spirits, resulting in an estimated annual increase in taxation revenue of $492 million and a 2.77% reduction in annual consumption of pure alcohol. The estimated net health gain would be 21 000 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with potential cost offsets of $110 million per annum. A tax revenue-neutral scenario would result in an 0.05% decrease in consumption, and a tax on all alcohol at a spirits rate would reduce consumption by 23.85% and increase revenue by $3094 million [corrected]. All volumetric tax scenarios would provide greater health benefits and cost savings to the health sector than the existing taxation system, based on current understandings of alcohol-related health effects. An equalized volumetric tax that would reduce beer and wine consumption while increasing the consumption of spirits would need to be approached with caution. Further research is required to examine whether alcohol-related health effects vary by type of alcoholic beverage independent of the amount of alcohol consumed to provide a strong evidence platform for alcohol taxation policies.

Estimation of energetic efficiency of heat supply in front of the aircraft at supersonic accelerated flight. Part 1. Mathematical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latypov, A. F.

2008-12-01

Fuel economy at boost trajectory of the aerospace plane was estimated during energy supply to the free stream. Initial and final flight velocities were specified. The model of a gliding flight above cold air in an infinite isobaric thermal wake was used. The fuel consumption rates were compared at optimal trajectory. The calculations were carried out using a combined power plant consisting of ramjet and liquid-propellant engine. An exergy model was built in the first part of the paper to estimate the ramjet thrust and specific impulse. A quadratic dependence on aerodynamic lift was used to estimate the aerodynamic drag of aircraft. The energy for flow heating was obtained at the expense of an equivalent reduction of the exergy of combustion products. The dependencies were obtained for increasing the range coefficient of cruise flight for different Mach numbers. The second part of the paper presents a mathematical model for the boost interval of the aircraft flight trajectory and the computational results for the reduction of fuel consumption at the boost trajectory for a given value of the energy supplied in front of the aircraft.

Do gamblers eat more salt? Testing a latent trait model of covariance in consumption.

PubMed

Goodwin, Belinda C; Browne, Matthew; Rockloff, Matthew; Donaldson, Phillip

2015-09-01

A diverse class of stimuli, including certain foods, substances, media, and economic behaviours, may be described as 'reward-oriented' in that they provide immediate reinforcement with little initial investment. Neurophysiological and personality concepts, including dopaminergic dysfunction, reward sensitivity and rash impulsivity, each predict the existence of a latent behavioural trait that leads to increased consumption of all stimuli in this class. Whilst bivariate relationships (co-morbidities) are often reported in the literature, to our knowledge, a multivariate investigation of this possible trait has not been done. We surveyed 1,194 participants (550 male) on their typical weekly consumption of 11 types of reward-oriented stimuli, including fast food, salt, caffeine, television, gambling products, and illicit drugs. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to compare models in a 3×3 structure, based on the definition of a single latent factor (none, fixed loadings, or estimated loadings), and assumed residual covariance structure (none, a-priori / literature based, or post-hoc / data-driven). The inclusion of a single latent behavioural 'consumption' factor significantly improved model fit in all cases. Also confirming theoretical predictions, estimated factor loadings on reward-oriented indicators were uniformly positive, regardless of assumptions regarding residual covariances. Additionally, the latent trait was found to be negatively correlated with the non-reward-oriented indicators of fruit and vegetable consumption. The findings support the notion of a single behavioural trait leading to increased consumption of reward-oriented stimuli across multiple modalities. We discuss implications regarding the concentration of negative lifestyle-related health behaviours.

Estimating Vehicle Fuel Consumption and Emissions Using GPS Big Data

PubMed Central

Kan, Zihan; Zhang, Xia

2018-01-01

The energy consumption and emissions from vehicles adversely affect human health and urban sustainability. Analysis of GPS big data collected from vehicles can provide useful insights about the quantity and distribution of such energy consumption and emissions. Previous studies, which estimated fuel consumption/emissions from traffic based on GPS sampled data, have not sufficiently considered vehicle activities and may have led to erroneous estimations. By adopting the analytical construct of the space-time path in time geography, this study proposes methods that more accurately estimate and visualize vehicle energy consumption/emissions based on analysis of vehicles’ mobile activities (MA) and stationary activities (SA). First, we build space-time paths of individual vehicles, extract moving parameters, and identify MA and SA from each space-time path segment (STPS). Then we present an N-Dimensional framework for estimating and visualizing fuel consumption/emissions. For each STPS, fuel consumption, hot emissions, and cold start emissions are estimated based on activity type, i.e., MA, SA with engine-on and SA with engine-off. In the case study, fuel consumption and emissions of a single vehicle and a road network are estimated and visualized with GPS data. The estimation accuracy of the proposed approach is 88.6%. We also analyze the types of activities that produced fuel consumption on each road segment to explore the patterns and mechanisms of fuel consumption in the study area. The results not only show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches in estimating fuel consumption/emissions but also indicate their advantages for uncovering the relationships between fuel consumption and vehicles’ activities in road networks. PMID:29561813

Estimating Vehicle Fuel Consumption and Emissions Using GPS Big Data.

PubMed

Kan, Zihan; Tang, Luliang; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhang, Xia

2018-03-21

The energy consumption and emissions from vehicles adversely affect human health and urban sustainability. Analysis of GPS big data collected from vehicles can provide useful insights about the quantity and distribution of such energy consumption and emissions. Previous studies, which estimated fuel consumption/emissions from traffic based on GPS sampled data, have not sufficiently considered vehicle activities and may have led to erroneous estimations. By adopting the analytical construct of the space-time path in time geography, this study proposes methods that more accurately estimate and visualize vehicle energy consumption/emissions based on analysis of vehicles' mobile activities ( MA ) and stationary activities ( SA ). First, we build space-time paths of individual vehicles, extract moving parameters, and identify MA and SA from each space-time path segment (STPS). Then we present an N-Dimensional framework for estimating and visualizing fuel consumption/emissions. For each STPS, fuel consumption, hot emissions, and cold start emissions are estimated based on activity type, i.e., MA , SA with engine-on and SA with engine-off. In the case study, fuel consumption and emissions of a single vehicle and a road network are estimated and visualized with GPS data. The estimation accuracy of the proposed approach is 88.6%. We also analyze the types of activities that produced fuel consumption on each road segment to explore the patterns and mechanisms of fuel consumption in the study area. The results not only show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches in estimating fuel consumption/emissions but also indicate their advantages for uncovering the relationships between fuel consumption and vehicles' activities in road networks.

Procedures used to estimate hardwood lumber consumption from 1963 to 2002

Treesearch

William Luppold; Matthew Bumgardner

2008-01-01

This paper presents an explanation for and procedures used to estimate hardwood lumber consumption by secondary hardwood processing industries from 1963 to 2002. This includes: classification of industry and industry groups, development of proxy prices used to estimate lumber consumption, assumptions used to convert dimension purchases to lumber consumption, estimation...

Accounting for Water Insecurity in Modeling Domestic Water Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galaitsis, S. E.; Huber-lee, A. T.; Vogel, R. M.; Naumova, E.

2013-12-01

Water demand management uses price elasticity estimates to predict consumer demand in relation to water pricing changes, but studies have shown that many additional factors effect water consumption. Development scholars document the need for water security, however, much of the water security literature focuses on broad policies which can influence water demand. Previous domestic water demand studies have not considered how water security can affect a population's consumption behavior. This study is the first to model the influence of water insecurity on water demand. A subjective indicator scale measuring water insecurity among consumers in the Palestinian West Bank is developed and included as a variable to explore how perceptions of control, or lack thereof, impact consumption behavior and resulting estimates of price elasticity. A multivariate regression model demonstrates the significance of a water insecurity variable for data sets encompassing disparate water access. When accounting for insecurity, the R-squaed value improves and the marginal price a household is willing to pay becomes a significant predictor for the household quantity consumption. The model denotes that, with all other variables held equal, a household will buy more water when the users are more water insecure. Though the reasons behind this trend require further study, the findings suggest broad policy implications by demonstrating that water distribution practices in scarcity conditions can promote consumer welfare and efficient water use.

Empirical cost models for estimating power and energy consumption in database servers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia Garcia, Harold Dwight

The explosive growth in the size of data centers, coupled with the widespread use of virtualization technology has brought power and energy consumption as major concerns for data center administrators. Provisioning decisions must take into consideration not only target application performance but also the power demands and total energy consumption incurred by the hardware and software to be deployed at the data center. Failure to do so will result in damaged equipment, power outages, and inefficient operation. Since database servers comprise one of the most popular and important server applications deployed in such facilities, it becomes necessary to have accurate cost models that can predict the power and energy demands that each database workloads will impose in the system. In this work we present an empirical methodology to estimate the power and energy cost of database operations. Our methodology uses multiple-linear regression to derive accurate cost models that depend only on readily available statistics such as selectivity factors, tuple size, numbers columns and relational cardinality. Moreover, our method does not need measurement of individual hardware components, but rather total power and energy consumption measured at a server. We have implemented our methodology, and ran experiments with several server configurations. Our experiments indicate that we can predict power and energy more accurately than alternative methods found in the literature.

Life cycle assessment of vehicle lightweighting: a physics-based model of mass-induced fuel consumption.

PubMed

Kim, Hyung Chul; Wallington, Timothy J

2013-12-17

Lightweighting is a key strategy used to improve vehicle fuel economy. Replacing conventional materials (e.g., steel) with lighter alternatives (e.g., aluminum, magnesium, and composites) decreases energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during vehicle use, but often increases energy consumption and GHG emissions during materials and vehicle production. Assessing the life-cycle benefits of mass reduction requires a quantitative description of the mass-induced fuel consumption during vehicle use. A new physics-based method for estimating mass-induced fuel consumption (MIF) is proposed. We illustrate the utility of this method by using publicly available data to calculate MIF values in the range of 0.2-0.5 L/(100 km 100 kg) based on 106 records of fuel economy tests by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for 2013 model year vehicles. Lightweighting is shown to have the most benefit when applied to vehicles with high fuel consumption and high power. Use of the physics-based model presented here would place future life cycle assessment studies of vehicle lightweighting on a firmer scientific foundation.

The effects of beverage type on suicide rate in Russia.

PubMed

Razvodovsky, Yury E

2011-12-01

Research evidence has suggested that the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverage may have a differential effect on suicide rate. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between the consumption of different beverage types and suicide rates in Russia. Age-standardized sex- and age-specific suicide rate for the period 1980-2005 and data on beverage-specific alcohol sale were obtained from the Russian State Statistical Committee. Time-series analytical modeling techniques (ARIMA) were used to examine the relationship between the sale of different alcoholic beverages and suicide rates. Vodka consumption as measured by sale was significantly associated with both male and female suicide rate. The consumption of beer and wine were not associated with suicide rate. The estimates of the age specific models for men were positive (except for the 75+ age group) and ranging from 0.069 (60-74 age group) to 0.123 (30-44 age group). The estimates for women were positive for the 15-29 age group (0.08), 30-44 age group (0.096) and 45-59 age group (0.057). These findings suggest that public health efforts should focus on both reducing overall consumption and changing beverage preference away from distilled spirits in order to reduce suicide rate in Russia.

Evaluation of energy consumption during aerobic sewage sludge treatment in dairy wastewater treatment plant.

PubMed

Dąbrowski, Wojciech; Żyłka, Radosław; Malinowski, Paweł

2017-02-01

The subject of the research conducted in an operating dairy wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) was to examine electric energy consumption during sewage sludge treatment. The excess sewage sludge was aerobically stabilized and dewatered with a screw press. Organic matter varied from 48% to 56% in sludge after stabilization and dewatering. It proves that sludge was properly stabilized and it was possible to apply it as a fertilizer. Measurement factors for electric energy consumption for mechanically dewatered sewage sludge were determined, which ranged between 0.94 and 1.5 kWhm -3 with the average value at 1.17 kWhm -3 . The shares of devices used for sludge dewatering and aerobic stabilization in the total energy consumption of the plant were also established, which were 3% and 25% respectively. A model of energy consumption during sewage sludge treatment was estimated according to experimental data. Two models were applied: linear regression for dewatering process and segmented linear regression for aerobic stabilization. The segmented linear regression model was also applied to total energy consumption during sewage sludge treatment in the examined dairy WWTP. The research constitutes an introduction for further studies on defining a mathematical model used to optimize electric energy consumption by dairy WWTPs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model for Estimating Acute Health Impacts from Consumption of Contaminated Drinking Water

EPA Science Inventory

This journal article discusses disease transmission models used to predict the spread of disease over time through susceptible, infected and recoverred populations, commonly used to design public intervention strategies. Amodified disease model is linked to flow and transport mod...

Comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) for food additives.

PubMed

Tennant, David R

2016-05-01

European methods for assessing dietary exposures to nutrients, additives and other substances in food are limited by the availability of detailed food consumption data for all member states. A proposed comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) applies summary data published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) in a deterministic model based on an algorithm from the EFSA intake method for food additives. The proposed approach can predict estimates of food additive exposure provided in previous EFSA scientific opinions that were based on the full European food consumption database.

Effects of docosahexaenoic acid and methylmercury on child's brain development due to consumption of fish by Finnish mother during pregnancy: a probabilistic modeling approach.

PubMed

Leino, O; Karjalainen, A K; Tuomisto, J T

2013-04-01

Fish contains both beneficial substances e.g. docosahexaenoic acids but also harmful compounds e.g. methylmercury. Importantly, the health effects caused by these two substances can be evaluated in one common end point, intelligence quotient (IQ), providing a more transparent analysis. We estimated health effects of maternal fish consumption on child's central nervous system by creating a model with three alternative maternal fish consumption scenarios (lean fish, fatty fish, and current fish consumption). Additionally, we analyzed impacts of both regular fish consumption and extreme fish consumption habits. At the individual level, the simulated net effects were small, encompassing a range of one IQ point in all scenarios. Fatty fish consumption, however, clearly generated a beneficial net IQ effect, and lean fish consumption evoked an adverse net IQ effect. In view of the current fish consumption pattern of Finnish mothers the benefits and risks seem to more or less compensate each other. This study clearly shows the significance of which fish species are consumed during pregnancy and lactation, and the results can be generalized to apply to typical western population fish consumption habits. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Texas motor vehicle operating costs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

A specific Vcost model was developed for Texas conditions based on a sophisticated fuel model for light : duty vehicles, several excellent sources of secondary vehicle cost data, and the ability to measure heavy truck fuel : consumption through both ...

Analyzing the association between fish consumption and osteoporosis in a sample of Chinese men.

PubMed

Li, Xia; Lei, Tao; Tang, Zihui; Dong, Jingcheng

2017-04-19

The main purpose of this study was to estimate the associations between frequency of fish food consumption and osteoporosis (OP) in general Chinese men. We conducted a large-scale, community-based, cross-sectional study to investigate the associations by using self-report questionnaire to access frequency of fish food intake. A total of 1092 men were available for data analysis in this study. Multiple regression models controlling for confounding factors to include frequency of fish food consumption variable were performed to investigate the relationships for OP. Positive correlations between frequency of fish food consumption and T score were reported (β = 0.084, P value = 0.025). Multiple regression analysis indicated that the frequency of fish food consumption was significantly associated with OP (P < 0.05 for model 1 and model 2). The men with high frequency of fish food consumption had a lower prevalence of OP. The findings indicated that frequency of fish food consumption was independently and significantly associated with OP. The prevalence of OP was less frequent in Chinese men preferring fish food habits. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02451397 retrospectively registered 28 May 2015.

Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American Shad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauter, Sally T.

2011-01-01

Bioenergetics modeling can be used as a tool to investigate the impact of non-native age-0 American shad (Alosa sapidissima) on reservoir and estuary food webs. The model can increase our understanding of how these fish influence lower trophic levels as well as predatory fish populations that feed on juvenile salmonids. Bioenergetics modeling can be used to investigate ecological processes, evaluate alternative research hypotheses, provide decision support, and quantitative prediction. Bioenergetics modeling has proven to be extremely useful in fisheries research (Ney et al. 1993,Chips and Wahl 2008, Petersen et al. 2008). If growth and diet parameters are known, the bioenergetics model can be used to quantify the relative amount of zooplankton or insects consumed by age-0 American shad. When linked with spatial and temporal information on fish abundance, model output can guide inferential hypothesis development to demonstrate where the greatest impacts of age-0 American shad might occur.

Bioenergetics modeling is particularly useful when research questions involve multiple species and trophic levels (e.g. plankton communities). Bioenergetics models are mass-balance equations where the energy acquired from food is partitioned between maintenance costs, waste products, and growth (Winberg 1956). Specifically, the Wisconsin bioenergetics model (Hanson et al. 1997) is widely used in fisheries science. Researchers have extensively tested, reviewed, and improved on this modeling approach for over 30 years (Petersen et al. 2008). Development of a bioenergetics model for any species requires three key components: 1) determine physiological parameters for the model through laboratory experiments or incorporate data from a closely related species, 2) corroboration of the model with growth and consumption estimates from independent research, and 3) error analysis of model parameters.

Wisconsin bioenergetics models have been parameterized for many of the salmonids and predatory fishes encountered in the lower Columbia River (Petersen and Ward 1999). The Wisconsin bioenergetics model has not been developed for American shad, however Limburg (1996) parameterized a simplified bioenergetics growth model for this species. A common application for the Wisconsin bioenergetics model is to estimate the consumption or growth of a fish population under different temperature and feeding scenarios (Ney 1993). One advantage of the bioenergetics approach is that consumption can be estimated without direct field measurements of predation rate (prey·predator^-1· day^-1; Petersen and Ward 1999). Field estimates of fish consumption are time consuming and costly to determine, and estimates may show wide variance due to environmental and sampling variability. However, the consumption parameters used in a newly developed bioenergetics model must be verified with field and laboratory estimates of consumption (Ney 1993).

The objective of this research was to parameterize a Wisconsin bioenergetics model for age-0 American shad using published physiological data on American shad and closely related alosine species. The American shad bioenergetics model will be used as a tool to explore various hypotheses about how age-0 American shad directly and indirectly affect Columbia River salmon through ecological interactions in lower Columbia River food webs. One over-arching focus of the larger research project was to identify potential interactions between age-0 American shad and juvenile salmonids, addressing potential outcomes through bioenergetics modeling scenarios. This report contains two bioenergetics modeling applications to demonstrate how these models can be used to address management questions and direct research effort. The first modeling application uses the American shad bioenergetics model described in this report to explore prey consumption by age-0 American shad (Chapter 1, this report). Dietary data on age-0 American shad and previously published reports on the diet of juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Rondorf et al. 1990, USGS unpublished data) suggested there might be considerable dietary overlap between these species in the lower Columbia River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was interested in using the American shad bioenergetics model to explore hypotheses concerning dietary overlap between age-0 American shad and emigrating fall Chinook salmon. The second modeling application uses the fall Chinook salmon bioenergetics model (Koehler et al. 2006) to explore the growth potential of juvenile fall Chinook salmon predating on age-0 American shad in the lower Columbia River. This modeling was based dietary information on a small number of age-0 fall Chinook salmon (n = 13) collected in John Day Reservoir in 1994 - 1996 (unpublished USGS data). Analysis of this dietary data found that these salmonids were feeding primarily on age-0 American shad (> 75% by weight).

Estimation of zeta potential of electroosmotic flow in a microchannel using a reduced-order model.

PubMed

Park, H M; Hong, S M; Lee, J S

2007-10-01

A reduced-order model is derived for electroosmotic flow in a microchannel of nonuniform cross section using the Karhunen-Loève Galerkin (KLG) procedure. The resulting reduced-order model is shown to predict electroosmotic flows accurately with minimal consumption of computer time for a wide range of zeta potential zeta and dielectric constant epsilon. Using the reduced-order model, a practical method is devised to estimate zeta from the velocity measurements of the electroosmotic flow in the microchannel. The proposed method is found to estimate zeta with reasonable accuracy even with noisy velocity measurements.

Actual and predicted prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in the WHO African Region.

PubMed

Popova, Svetlana; Lange, Shannon; Probst, Charlotte; Shield, Kevin; Kraicer-Melamed, Hannah; Ferreira-Borges, Carina; Rehm, Jürgen

2016-10-01

To estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region, by country. First, a comprehensive systematic literature search was performed to identify all published and unpublished studies. Then, several meta-analyses, assuming a random-effects model, were conducted to estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population for countries in the WHO African Region with two or more studies available. Lastly, for countries with less than two studies or no known data predictions were obtained using regression modelling. The estimated prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy among the general population ranged from 2.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-2.8%; Equatorial Guinea) to 12.6% (95% CI: 9.9-15.4%; Cameroon) in Central Africa, 3.4% (95% CI: 2.6-4.3%; Seychelles) to 20.5% (95% CI: 16.4-24.7%; Uganda) in Eastern Africa, 5.7% (95% CI: 4.4-7.1%; Botswana) to 14.2% (95% CI: 11.1-17.3%; Namibia) in Southern Africa, 6.6% (95% CI: 5.0-8.3%; Mauritania) to 14.8% (95% CI: 11.6-17.9%; Sierra Leone) in Western Africa, and 4.3% (95% CI: 3.2-5.3%; Algeria) in Northern Africa. The high prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy in some African countries calls for educational campaigns, screening and targeted interventions for women of childbearing age. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Heterogeneity and Risk Sharing in Village Economies*

PubMed Central

Chiappori, Pierre-André; Samphantharak, Krislert; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Townsend, Robert M.

2013-01-01

We show how to use panel data on household consumption to directly estimate households’ risk preferences. Specifically, we measure heterogeneity in risk aversion among households in Thai villages using a full risk-sharing model, which we then test allowing for this heterogeneity. There is substantial, statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated risk preferences. Full insurance cannot be rejected. As the risk sharing, as-if-complete-markets theory might predict, estimated risk preferences are unrelated to wealth or other characteristics. The heterogeneity matters for policy: Although the average household would benefit from eliminating village-level risk, less-risk-averse households who are paid to absorb that risk would be worse off by several percent of household consumption. PMID:24932226

A multispecies statistical age-structured model to assess predator-prey balance: application to an intensively managed Lake Michigan pelagic fish community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tsehaye, Iyob; Jones, Michael L.; Bence, James R.; Brenden, Travis O.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Warner, David M.

2014-01-01

Using a Bayesian model fitting approach, we developed a multispecies statistical catch-at-age model to assess trade-offs between predatory demands and prey productivities, focusing on the Lake Michigan pelagic fish community. We assessed these trade-offs in terms of predation mortalities and productivities of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and functional responses of salmonines. Our predation mortality estimates suggest that salmonine consumption has been a major driver of historical fluctuations in prey abundance, with sharp declines in alewife abundance in the 1980s and 2000s coinciding with estimated increases in predation mortalities. While Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) were food limited during periods of low alewife abundance, other salmonines appeared to maintain a (near) maximum per-predator consumption across all observed prey densities, suggesting that feedback mechanisms are unlikely to help maintain a balance between predator consumption and prey productivity in Lake Michigan. This study demonstrates that a multispecies modeling approach that combines stock assessment methods with explicit consideration of predator–prey interactions could provide the basis for tactical decision-making from a broader ecosystem perspective.

Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals

PubMed Central

Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Brower, Charles; Gilbert, Marius; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Levin, Simon A.; Robinson, Timothy P.; Teillant, Aude; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

2015-01-01

Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg−1, 148 mg⋅kg−1, and 172 mg⋅kg−1 for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health. PMID:25792457

Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals.

PubMed

Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Brower, Charles; Gilbert, Marius; Grenfell, Bryan T; Levin, Simon A; Robinson, Timothy P; Teillant, Aude; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

2015-05-05

Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg(-1), 148 mg⋅kg(-1), and 172 mg⋅kg(-1) for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health.

A quantitative analysis of household energy consumption in rural west Java: with particular emphasis on socio-economic influences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadi, S.S.

1982-01-01

A survey was conducted to estimate per capita, per household, and total energy consumption by region, by level of development, and by fuel source in rural West Java. Socio-economic conditions were also measured by using parameters that included income, family size, husband education, wife education, biomass fuelstock, level of village development, and land size. These data are tabulated and used to develop a model that can predict probabilities of fuel use, consumption, and variety.

[Impact of high salt consumption of blood pressure on a non-hypertensive population].

PubMed

Domínguez Cancino, Karen; Paredes Escobar, María Cristina

2017-12-01

Background There is conflicting evidence regarding the role of salt intake in blood pressure (BP). Aim To estimate the impact of salt consumption on the BP level of a non-hypertensive population aged between 15 and 64 years. Material and Methods Analytical-observational study using data from the National Health Survey 2009-2010. A BP cut-off point at 120/80 mmHg BP was considered to determine risk. Salt consumption was divided into four strata. The prevalence ratios (PR) were determined using the Poisson model with robust variance. The formulas of the studies of Dal Grande and Walter for the estimation of population attributable fraction (PAF) were used. Results The sample was constituted by 1,263 individuals and 24.3% had BP at risk. A statistically significant association was observed between high salt intake and risk BP with PR of 1.91 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.44-2.57) in the consumption stratum of 11 g / day and more. It was estimated that 4.7% (95% CI 4.2-5.2) of BP risk can be attributed to salt consumption, when controlling by age group, sex and educational level. Conclusions The 4.7% PAF is lower than the figure of 30% reported abroad. Interventions to reduce salt consumption in the entire population and the identification of risk groups are recommended.

Consumption of fast food, sugar-sweetened beverages, artificially-sweetened beverages and allostatic load among young adults.

PubMed

van Draanen, Jenna; Prelip, Michael; Upchurch, Dawn M

2018-06-01

This study investigates the associations between recent consumption of fast foods, sugar-sweetened beverages, and artificially-sweetened beverages on level of allostatic load, a measure of cumulative biological risk, in young adults in the US. Data from Wave IV of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health were analyzed. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the associations between consumption of fast foods, sugar-sweetened, and artificially-sweetened beverages and allostatic load. Poisson and logistic regression models were used to estimate the associations between these diet parameters and combined biomarkers of physiological subsystems that comprise our measure of allostatic load. All analyses were weighted and findings are representative of young adults in the US, ages 24-34 in 2008 (n = 11,562). Consumption of fast foods, sugar-sweetened, and artificially-sweetened beverages were associated with higher allostatic load at a bivariate level. Accounting for demographics and medication use, only artificially-sweetened beverages remained significantly associated with allostatic load. When all three dietary components were simultaneously included in a model, both sugar- and artificially-sweetened beverage consumption were associated with higher allostatic load. Differences in allostatic load emerge early in the life course and young adults consuming sugar- or artificially-sweetened beverages have higher allostatic load, net of demographics and medication use. Public health messages to young adults may need to include cautions about both sugar- and artificially-sweetened beverages.

Quantifying outdoor water consumption of urban land use/land cover: sensitivity to drought.

PubMed

Kaplan, Shai; Myint, Soe W; Fan, Chao; Brazel, Anthony J

2014-04-01

Outdoor water use is a key component in arid city water systems for achieving sustainable water use and ensuring water security. Using evapotranspiration (ET) calculations as a proxy for outdoor water consumption, the objectives of this research are to quantify outdoor water consumption of different land use and land cover types, and compare the spatio-temporal variation in water consumption between drought and wet years. An energy balance model was applied to Landsat 5 TM time series images to estimate daily and seasonal ET for the Central Arizona Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research region (CAP-LTER). Modeled ET estimations were correlated with water use data in 49 parks within CAP-LTER and showed good agreement (r² = 0.77), indicating model effectiveness to capture the variations across park water consumption. Seasonally, active agriculture shows high ET (>500 mm) for both wet and dry conditions, while the desert and urban land cover types experienced lower ET during drought (<300 mm). Within urban locales of CAP-LTER, xeric neighborhoods show significant differences from year to year, while mesic neighborhoods retain their ET values (400-500 mm) during drought, implying considerable use of irrigation to sustain their greenness. Considering the potentially limiting water availability of this region in the future due to large population increases and the threat of a warming and drying climate, maintaining large water-consuming, irrigated landscapes challenges sustainable practices of water conservation and the need to provide amenities of this desert area for enhancing quality of life.

Alcohol affordability and alcohol demand: cross-country trends and panel data estimates, 1975 to 2008.

PubMed

Nelson, Jon P

2014-04-01

Relatively little is known about cross-country differences in alcohol affordability or factors that determine differences in affordability over time. This information is potentially important for alcohol policy, especially policies that focus on higher taxes or prices to reduce total alcohol consumption. This study estimates cross-country alcohol consumption relationships using economic models incorporating income and prices and alternative models based on alcohol affordability. The data and analysis are restricted to higher income countries. Data for alcohol consumption per capita (ages 15+) are analyzed for 2 samples: first, 17 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the period 1975 to 2000; second, 22 countries in the European Union for the period from 2000 to 2008. Panel data models are utilized, with country and time fixed-effects to control for confounding influences. In economic demand models, covariates are real per capita income and real alcohol price indices. In affordability models, income is divided by prices to yield an index of alcohol affordability. Analysis of data trends reveals that much of the increase in affordability is due to rising real incomes, and not falling real prices. Economic models of demand perform slightly better statistically, but differences are not substantial as income and affordability are highly correlated. For both samples, exogenous rates of growth of alcohol consumption are negative. Price and income elasticities, on average, are within the range of prior estimates. Affordability elasticities are between 0.21 and 0.25. Although alcohol affordability is a valid concept statistically, its use in policy discussions tends to hide underlying causes of changes in affordability. A better approach is a comparison and analysis of trends and cross-country differences in real incomes and real alcohol prices together with the affordability index. Country-level analysis of income and price elasticities also is required. Copyright © 2014 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Is the density of alcohol establishments related to nonviolent crime?

PubMed

Toomey, Traci L; Erickson, Darin J; Carlin, Bradley P; Quick, Harrison S; Harwood, Eileen M; Lenk, Kathleen M; Ecklund, Alexandra M

2012-01-01

We examined the associations between the density of alcohol establishments and five types of nonviolent crime across urban neighborhoods. Data from the city of Minneapolis, MN, in 2009 were aggregated and analyzed at the neighborhood level. We examined the association between alcohol establishment density and five categories of nonviolent crime: vandalism, nuisance crime, public alcohol consumption, driving while intoxicated, and underage alcohol possession/consumption. A Bayesian approach was used for model estimation accounting for spatial auto-correlation and controlling for relevant neighborhood demographics. Models were estimated for total alcohol establishment density and then separately for off-premise establishments (e.g., liquor and convenience stores) and on-premise establishments (e.g., bars and restaurants). We found positive associations between density and each crime category. The association was strongest for public consumption and weakest for vandalism. We estimated that a 3.3%-10.9% increase across crime categories would result from a 20% increase in neighborhood establishment density. Similar results were seen for on- and off-premise establishments, although the strength of the associations was lower for off-premise density. Our results indicate that communities should consider the potential increase in nonviolent crime associated with an increase in the number of alcohol establishments within neighborhoods.

Marginal Economic Value of Streamflow: A Case Study for the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Thomas C.; Harding, Benjamin L.; Payton, Elizabeth A.

1990-12-01

The marginal economic value of streamflow leaving forested areas in the Colorado River Basin was estimated by determining the impact on water use of a small change in streamflow and then applying economic value estimates to the water use changes. The effect on water use of a change in streamflow was estimated with a network flow model that simulated salinity levels and the routing of flow to consumptive uses and hydroelectric dams throughout the Basin. The results show that, under current water management institutions, the marginal value of streamflow in the Colorado River Basin is largely determined by nonconsumptive water uses, principally energy production, rather than by consumptive agricultural or municipal uses. The analysis demonstrates the importance of a systems framework in estimating the marginal value of streamflow.

Using field data to assess model predictions of surface and ground fuel consumption by wildfire in coniferous forests of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lydersen, Jamie M.; Collins, Brandon M.; Ewell, Carol M.; Reiner, Alicia L.; Fites, Jo Ann; Dow, Christopher B.; Gonzalez, Patrick; Saah, David S.; Battles, John J.

2014-03-01

Inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wildfire provide essential information to the state of California, USA, and other governments that have enacted emission reductions. Wildfires can release a substantial amount of GHGs and other compounds to the atmosphere, so recent increases in fire activity may be increasing GHG emissions. Quantifying wildfire emissions however can be difficult due to inherent variability in fuel loads and consumption and a lack of field data of fuel consumption by wildfire. We compare a unique set of fuel data collected immediately before and after six wildfires in coniferous forests of California to fuel consumption predictions of the first-order fire effects model (FOFEM), based on two different available fuel characterizations. We found strong regional differences in the performance of different fuel characterizations, with FOFEM overestimating the fuel consumption to a greater extent in the Klamath Mountains than in the Sierra Nevada. Inaccurate fuel load inputs caused the largest differences between predicted and observed fuel consumption. Fuel classifications tended to overestimate duff load and underestimate litter load, leading to differences in predicted emissions for some pollutants. When considering total ground and surface fuels, modeled consumption was fairly accurate on average, although the range of error in estimates of plot level consumption was very large. These results highlight the importance of fuel load input to the accuracy of modeled fuel consumption and GHG emissions from wildfires in coniferous forests.

Sugar consumption and global prevalence of obesity and hypertension: an ecological analysis.

PubMed

Siervo, Mario; Montagnese, Concetta; Mathers, John C; Soroka, Katrina R; Stephan, Blossom C M; Wells, Jonathan C K

2014-03-01

The nutrition transition model provides an integrated approach to analyse global changes in food consumption and lifestyle patterns. Whether variability in food availability for consumption, lifestyle and sociodemographic factors is associated with the worldwide prevalence distribution of overweight, obesity and hypertension is unclear. Ecological analysis. Country-specific prevalence estimates of overweight, obesity and hypertension were obtained. Prevalence estimates were then matched to year- and country-specific food and energy availability for consumption of cereals, sugar, sweeteners and honey, vegetable oils, fruits, starchy roots, pulses, total vegetables, alcoholic beverages, total meat, animal fat, eggs, milk, and fish and seafood. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), urbanization rates and prevalence of physical inactivity for each country were also obtained. The overweight, obesity and hypertension databases included information from 128, 123 and seventy-nine countries, respectively. Consumption of sugar and animal products were directly associated with GDP and urbanization rates. In a multivariate regression model, physical inactivity (B = 0·01, se = 0·005, P = 0·003), cereal consumption (B = -0·02, se = 0·006, P < 0·001) and sugar consumption (B = 0·03, se = 0·01, P = 0·03) were significant predictors of obesity prevalence. Midpoint age (B = 0·21, se = 0·10, P = 0·02), prevalence of overweight (B = 0·18, se = 0·08, P = 0·02) and consumption of cereals (B = -0·22, se = 0·10, P = 0·02) were significant predictors of hypertension. Women appeared to have a significant obesity excess compared with men. High sugar consumption and sedentary lifestyle are associated with increased obesity prevalence. The non-linear association of sugar consumption with prevalence of obesity suggests that effective strategies to reduce its consumption may have differential effects in countries at different stages of the nutrition transition.

Applications of bioenergetics models to fish ecology and management: where do we go from here?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Boisclair, Daniel; Brandt, Stephen B.; Hewett, Steven W.; Kitchell, James F.; Lucas, Martyn C.; Ney, John J.

1993-01-01

Papers and panel discussions given during a 1992 symposium on bioenergetics models are summarized. Bioenergetics models have been applied to a variety of research and management questions related to fish stocks, populations, food webs, and ecosystems. Applications include estimates of the intensity and dynamics of predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling within aquatic food webs of varying trophic structure, and food requirements of single animals, whole populations, and communities of fishes. As tools in food web and ecosystem applications, bioenergetics models have been used to compare forage consumption by salmonid predators across the Laurentian Great Lakes for single populations and whole communities, and to estimate the growth potential of pelagic predators in Chesapeake Bay and Lake Ontario. Some critics say that bioenergetics models lack sufficient detail to produce reliable results in such field applications, whereas others say that the models are too complex to be useful tools for fishery managers. Nevertheless, bioenergetics models have achieved notable predictive successes. Improved estimates are needed for model parameters such as metabolic costs of activity, and more complete studies are needed of the bioenergetics of larval and juvenile fishes. Future research on bioenergetics should include laboratory and field measurements of key model parameters such as weight-dependent maximum consumption, respiration and activity, and thermal habitats actually occupied by fish. Future applications of bioenergetics models to fish populations also depend on accurate estimates of population sizes and survival rates.

Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa.

PubMed

Manyema, Mercy; Veerman, Lennert J; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Labadarios, Demetre; Hofman, Karen J

2016-05-31

Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010). We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million) in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million). Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years) from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

The effects of the Danish saturated fat tax on food and nutrient intake and modelled health outcomes: an econometric and comparative risk assessment evaluation.

PubMed

Smed, S; Scarborough, P; Rayner, M; Jensen, J D

2016-06-01

The World Health Organisation recommends governments to consider the use of fiscal policies to promote healthy eating. However, there is very limited evidence of the effect of food taxation in a real-life setting, as most evidence is based on simulation studies. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of the Danish tax on saturated fat in terms of changes in nutritional quality of the diet, that is, changes in saturated fat consumption, as well as other non-targeted dietary measures, and to model the associated changes in mortality for different age groups and genders. On the basis of household scanner data, we estimate the impact of the tax on consumption of saturated fat, unsaturated fat, salt, fruit, vegetables and fibre. The resultant changes in dietary quality are then used as inputs into a comparative risk assessment model (PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl)) to estimate the effect of these changes on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mortality. The tax resulted in a 4.0% reduction in saturated fat intake. Vegetable consumption increased, and salt consumption increased for most individuals, except younger females. We find a modelled reduction in mortality with 123 lives saved annually, 76 of them below 75 years equal to 0.4% of all deaths from NCDs. Modelling the effect of the changes in diet on health outcomes suggests that the saturated fat tax made a positive, but minor, contribution to public health in Denmark.

Theory and Techniques for Assessing the Demand and Supply of Outdoor Recreation in the United States

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell; John C. Bergstrom

1989-01-01

As the central analysis for the 1989 Renewable Resources planning Act Assessment, a household market model covering 37 recreational activities was computed for the United States. Equilibrium consumption and costs were estimated, as were likely future changes in consumption and costs in response to expected demand growth and alternative development and access policies...

Analysis of U.S. household wood energy consumption: 1967-2009

Treesearch

Nianfu Song; Francisco X. Aguilar; Stephen R. Shifley; Michael E. Goerndt

2012-01-01

The residential sector consumes about 23% of the energy derived from wood (wood energy) in the U.S. An estimated error correction model with data from 1967 to 2009 suggests that residential wood energy consumption has declined by an average 3% per year in response to technological progress, urbanization, accessibility of non-wood energy, and other factors associated...

Estimating the Marginal Causal Effect of Fish Consumption during Adolescence on Multiple Sclerosis: A Population-Based Incident Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Abdollahpour, Ibrahim; Nedjat, Saharnaz; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Kaufman, Jay S

2018-01-01

Adolescence is considered as a critical time period in multiple sclerosis (MS) etiology. Nonetheless, there are insufficient reports regarding the potential role of fresh and canned fish consumptions during adolescence in MS etiology. The authors investigated the association between fresh and canned fish consumptions and MS. This was a population-based incident case-control study conducted in Tehran. Cases (n = 547) identified from Iranian Multiple Sclerosis Society between August 7, 2013, and November 17, 2015 were included in the study. Population-based controls (n = 1,057) were recruited by random digit telephone dialing without any matching. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighing (IPTW) using 2 sets of propensity scores and model-based standardization were used to separately estimate the marginal odds ratio between fresh and canned fish consumptions in adolescence and MS. The marginal OR for fresh fish was 0.72 (95% CI 0.58-0.90; p = 0.005) in both IPTW analyses. Similarly, the marginal OR for canned fish consumption was 0.75 (95% CI 0.60-0.95; p = 0.014).The model-based standardized OR was 0.72 (95% CI 0.58-0.91; p = 0.008) for fresh and 0.73 (95% CI 0.59-0.94; p = 0.006) for canned fish consumption in adolescence. Subject to limitation of case-control studies in interpreting associations causally, this study suggests that both fresh and canned fish consumptions in adolescence can decrease the risk of MS. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Impact of military on biofuels consumption and GHG emissions: the evidence from G7 countries.

PubMed

Bildirici, Melike

2018-05-01

It was aimed to test the relation among the greenhouse gases emissions, economic growth, biofuels consumption, and militarization in G7 countries during the 1985-2015 period by Pedroni 1995 and panel Johansen tests and two long-run estimators-dynamic OLS and fully modified OLS. Long-run estimators found that economic growth and militarization have statistically significant positive impact on CO 2 emission of G7 countries. Furthermore, the panel causality tests were applied: Dumitrescu and Hurlin (Econ Model 29(4):1450-1460, 2012) and panel Granger causality. These tests determined the causal relationship between the variables. The results of this paper implied that economic growth and biofuels consumption depend on militarization, and economic growth and militarization are granger causes of the greenhouse gases emissions.

Effects off system factors on the economics of and demand for small solar thermal power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Market penetration as a function time, SPS performance factors, and market/economic considerations was estimated, and commercialization strategies were formulated. A market analysis task included personal interviews and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective SPS users. Interviews encompassed three ownership classes of electric utilities and industrial firms in the SIC codes for energy consumption. A market demand model was developed which utilized the data base developed, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential market for SPS.

Effects off system factors on the economics of and demand for small solar thermal power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1981-09-01

Market penetration as a function time, SPS performance factors, and market/economic considerations was estimated, and commercialization strategies were formulated. A market analysis task included personal interviews and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective SPS users. Interviews encompassed three ownership classes of electric utilities and industrial firms in the SIC codes for energy consumption. A market demand model was developed which utilized the data base developed, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential market for SPS.

Consumers' behavior in quantitative microbial risk assessment for pathogens in raw milk: Incorporation of the likelihood of consumption as a function of storage time and temperature.

PubMed

Crotta, Matteo; Paterlini, Franco; Rizzi, Rita; Guitian, Javier

2016-02-01

Foodborne disease as a result of raw milk consumption is an increasing concern in Western countries. Quantitative microbial risk assessment models have been used to estimate the risk of illness due to different pathogens in raw milk. In these models, the duration and temperature of storage before consumption have a critical influence in the final outcome of the simulations and are usually described and modeled as independent distributions in the consumer phase module. We hypothesize that this assumption can result in the computation, during simulations, of extreme scenarios that ultimately lead to an overestimation of the risk. In this study, a sensorial analysis was conducted to replicate consumers' behavior. The results of the analysis were used to establish, by means of a logistic model, the relationship between time-temperature combinations and the probability that a serving of raw milk is actually consumed. To assess our hypothesis, 2 recently published quantitative microbial risk assessment models quantifying the risks of listeriosis and salmonellosis related to the consumption of raw milk were implemented. First, the default settings described in the publications were kept; second, the likelihood of consumption as a function of the length and temperature of storage was included. When results were compared, the density of computed extreme scenarios decreased significantly in the modified model; consequently, the probability of illness and the expected number of cases per year also decreased. Reductions of 11.6 and 12.7% in the proportion of computed scenarios in which a contaminated milk serving was consumed were observed for the first and the second study, respectively. Our results confirm that overlooking the time-temperature dependency may yield to an important overestimation of the risk. Furthermore, we provide estimates of this dependency that could easily be implemented in future quantitative microbial risk assessment models of raw milk pathogens. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Green and black tea consumption and risk of stroke: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Arab, Lenore; Liu, Weiqing; Elashoff, David

2009-05-01

Experimental models of stroke provide consistent evidence of smaller stroke volumes in animals ingesting tea components or tea extracts. To assess whether a similar association of black or green tea consumption with reduced risk is evident in human populations, we sought to identify and summarize all human clinical and observational data on tea and stroke. We searched PubMed and Web of Science for all studies on stroke and tea consumption in humans with original data, including estimation or measurement of tea consumption and outcomes of fatal or nonfatal stroke. Data from 9 studies involving 4378 strokes among 194 965 individuals were pooled. The main outcome was the occurrence of fatal or nonfatal stroke. We tested for heterogeneity and calculated the summary effect estimate associated with consumption of >or=3 cups of tea (green or black) per day using random-effects and fixed-effects models for the homogeneous studies. Publication bias was also evaluated. Regardless of their country of origin, individuals consuming >or=3 cups of tea per day had a 21% lower risk of stroke than those consuming <1 cup per day (absolute risk reduction, 0.79; CI, 0.73 to 0.85). The proportion of heterogeneity not explained by chance alone was 23.8%. Although a randomized clinical trial would be necessary to confirm the effect, this meta-analysis suggests that daily consumption of either green or black tea equaling 3 cups per day could prevent the onset of ischemic stroke.

Risk assessment of fungal spoilage: A case study of Aspergillus niger on yogurt.

PubMed

Gougouli, Maria; Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos P

2017-08-01

A quantitative risk assessment model of yogurt spoilage by Aspergillus niger was developed based on a stochastic modeling approach for mycelium growth by taking into account the important sources of variability such as time-temperature conditions during the different stages of chill chain and individual spore behavior. Input parameters were fitted to the appropriate distributions and A. niger colony's diameter at each stage of the chill chain was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. By combining the output of the growth model with the fungus prevalence, that can be estimated by the industry using challenge tests, the risk of spoilage translated to number of yogurt cups in which a visible mycelium of A. niger is being formed at the time of consumption was assessed. The risk assessment output showed that for a batch of 100,000 cups in which the percentage of contaminated cups with A. niger was 1% the predicted numbers (median (5 th , 95 th percentiles)) of the cups with a visible mycelium at consumption time were 8 (5, 14). For higher percentages of 3, 5 and 10 the predicted numbers (median (5 th , 95 th percentiles)) of the spoiled cups at consumption time were estimated to be 24 (16, 35), 39 (29, 52) and 80 (64, 94), respectively. The developed model can lead to a more effective risk-based quality management of yogurt and support the decision making in yogurt production. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. (a) Procedures for determining the estimated annual energy consumption, the estimated annual operating costs, the energy efficiency ratings, and the efficacy...

Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. The NEMS Transportation Model comprises a series of semi-independent models which address different aspects of the transportation sector. The primary purpose of this model is to provide mid-term forecasts of transportation energy demand by fuel type including, but not limited to, motor gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and alternative fuels (such as CNG) not commonly associated with transportation. Themore » current NEMS forecast horizon extends to the year 2010 and uses 1990 as the base year. Forecasts are generated through the separate consideration of energy consumption within the various modes of transport, including: private and fleet light-duty vehicles; aircraft; marine, rail, and truck freight; and various modes with minor overall impacts, such as mass transit and recreational boating. This approach is useful in assessing the impacts of policy initiatives, legislative mandates which affect individual modes of travel, and technological developments. The model also provides forecasts of selected intermediate values which are generated in order to determine energy consumption. These elements include estimates of passenger travel demand by automobile, air, or mass transit; estimates of the efficiency with which that demand is met; projections of vehicle stocks and the penetration of new technologies; and estimates of the demand for freight transport which are linked to forecasts of industrial output. Following the estimation of energy demand, TRAN produces forecasts of vehicular emissions of the following pollutants by source: oxides of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, total carbon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds.« less

Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Part 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcoholsmore » and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level.« less

Comparisons between consumption estimates from bioenergetics simulations and field measurements for walleyes from Oneida Lake, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lantry, B.F.; Rudstam, L. G.; Forney, J.L.; VanDeValk, A.J.; Mills, E.L.; Stewart, D.J.; Adams, J.V.

2008-01-01

Daily consumption was estimated from the stomach contents of walleyes Sander vitreus collected weekly from Oneida Lake, New York, during June-October 1975, 1992, 1993, and 1994 for one to four age-groups per year. Field rations were highly variable between weeks, and trends in ration size varied both seasonally and annually. The coefficient of variation for weekly field rations within years and ages ranged from 45% to 97%. Field estimates were compared with simulated consumption from a bioenergetics model. The simulation averages of daily ration deviated from those of the field estimates by -20.1% to +70.3%, with a mean across all simulations of +14.3%. The deviations for each time step were much greater than those for the simulation averages, ranging from -92.8% to +363.6%. A systematic trend in the deviations was observed, the model producing overpredictions at rations less than 3.7% of body weight. Analysis of variance indicated that the deviations were affected by sample year and week but not age. Multiple linear regression using backwards selection procedures and Akaike's information criterion indicated that walleye weight, walleye growth, lake temperature, prey energy density, and the proportion of gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum in the diet significantly affected the deviations between simulated and field rations and explained 32% of the variance. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Advertising bans as a means of tobacco control policy: a systematic literature review of time-series analyses.

PubMed

Quentin, Wilm; Neubauer, Simone; Leidl, Reiner; König, Hans-Helmut

2007-01-01

This paper reviews the international literature that employed time-series analysis to evaluate the effects of advertising bans on aggregate consumption of cigarettes or tobacco. A systematic search of the literature was conducted. Three groups of studies representing analyses of advertising bans in the U.S.A., in other countries and in 22 OECD countries were defined. The estimated effects of advertising bans and their significance were analysed. 24 studies were identified. They used a wide array of explanatory variables, models, estimating methods and data sources. 18 studies found a negative effect of an advertising ban on aggregate consumption, but only ten of these studies found a significant effect. Two studies using data from 22 OECD countries suggested that partial bans would have little or no influence on aggregate consumption, whereas complete bans would significantly reduce consumption. The results imply that advertising bans have a negative but sometimes only narrow impact on consumption. Complete bans let expect a higher effectiveness. Because of methodological restrictions of analysing advertising bans' effects by time series approaches, also different approaches should be used in the future.

Bioenergetics in ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Farrell, Anthony P.

2011-01-01

A bioenergetics model for a fish can be defined as a quantitative description of the fish’s energy budget. Bioenergetics modeling can be applied to a fish population in a lake, river, or ocean to estimate the annual consumption of food by the fish population; such applications have proved to be useful in managing fisheries. In addition, bioenergetics models have been used to better understand fish growth and consumption in ecosystems, to determine the importance of the role of fish in cycling nutrients within ecosystems, and to identify the important factors regulating contaminant accumulation in fish from lakes, rivers, and oceans.

Estimated Global, Regional, and National Disease Burdens Related to Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption in 2010

PubMed Central

Singh, Gitanjali M.; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lim, Stephen; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2015-01-01

Background Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are consumed globally and contribute to adiposity. However, the worldwide impact of SSBs on burdens of adiposity-related cardiovascular diseases (CVD), cancers, and diabetes has not been assessed by nation, age, and sex. Methods and Results We modeled global, regional, and national burdens of disease associated with SSB consumption by age/sex in 2010. Data on SSB consumption levels were pooled from national dietary surveys worldwide. The effects of SSB intake on BMI and diabetes, and of elevated BMI on CVD, diabetes, and cancers were derived from large prospective cohort pooling studies. Disease-specific mortality/morbidity data were obtained from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We computed cause-specific population-attributable fractions for SSB consumption, which were multiplied by cause-specific mortality/morbidity to compute estimates of SSB-attributable death/disability. Analyses were done by country/age/sex; uncertainties of all input data were propagated into final estimates. Worldwide, the model estimated 184,000(95%UI=161,000–208,000) deaths/year attributable to SSB consumption: 133,000(126,000–139,000) from diabetes, 45,000(26,000–61,000) from CVD, and 6,450(4,300–8,600) from cancers. 5.0% of SSB-related deaths occurred in low-income, 70.9% in middle-income, and 24.1% in high-income countries. Proportional mortality due to SSBs ranged from <1% in Japanese >65y to 30% in Mexicans <45y. Among the 20 most populous countries, Mexico had largest absolute (405 deaths/million adults) and proportional (12.1%) deaths from SSBs. A total of 8.5(2.8, 19.2) million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were related to SSB intake (4.5% of diabetes-related DALYs). Conclusions SSBs, are a single, modifiable component of diet, that can impact preventable death/disability in adults in high, middle, and low-income countries, indicating an urgent need for strong global prevention programs. PMID:26124185

Passive smoking and cooking oil fumes (COF) may modify the association between tea consumption and oral cancer in Chinese women.

PubMed

Chen, Fa; He, Baochang; Hu, Zhijian; Huang, Jiangfeng; Liu, Fangping; Yan, Lingjun; Lin, Zheng; Zheng, Xiaoyan; Lin, Lisong; Zhang, Zuofeng; Cai, Lin

2016-05-01

To evaluate the confounding effects of passive smoking and COF exposure on association between tea and oral cancer in Chinese women. A case-control study including 207 female oral cancer cases and 480 age-matched controls was performed in Fujian, China. Data were collected with a structured questionnaire by face-to-face interviews. The effects of tea consumption on oral cancer were, respectively, adjusted for Model-1 and Model-2 using logistic regression analysis. Model-1 did not adjusted for passive smoking and COF; Model-2 included the variables in Model-1, passive smoking and COF. Tea consumption was associated with a decreased risk of oral cancer in females: The OR was 0.498 (95 % CI 0.312-0.795) for Model-1 and 0.565 (95 % CI 0.352-0.907) for Model-2. The ORs for all the categories of tea consumption estimated by Model-2 were slightly higher than Model-1. When stratified by passive smoking, the statistically significant association between tea drinking and oral cancer was only emerged in non-passive smoking women. Stratification by COF found tea drinking was still associated with a decreased risk of oral cancer for women who have light-COF exposure, but an increased risk for those who subjected to heavy exposure. A negative, multiplicative interaction was found between tea consumption and COF exposure for oral cancer, but not found between tea consumption and passive smoking. Tea consumption reduces the risk of oral cancer in Chinese women, but this effect is modified by the carcinogenic effects of passive smoking and COF exposure.

EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-12-28

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supplymore » for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level.« less

Cost-benefit analysis involving addictive goods: contingent valuation to estimate willingness-to-pay for smoking cessation.

PubMed

Weimer, David L; Vining, Aidan R; Thomas, Randall K

2009-02-01

The valuation of changes in consumption of addictive goods resulting from policy interventions presents a challenge for cost-benefit analysts. Consumer surplus losses from reduced consumption of addictive goods that are measured relative to market demand schedules overestimate the social cost of cessation interventions. This article seeks to show that consumer surplus losses measured using a non-addicted demand schedule provide a better assessment of social cost. Specifically, (1) it develops an addiction model that permits an estimate of the smoker's compensating variation for the elimination of addiction; (2) it employs a contingent valuation survey of current smokers to estimate their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a treatment that would eliminate addiction; (3) it uses the estimate of WTP from the survey to calculate the fraction of consumer surplus that should be viewed as consumer value; and (4) it provides an estimate of this fraction. The exercise suggests that, as a tentative first and rough rule-of-thumb, only about 75% of the loss of the conventionally measured consumer surplus should be counted as social cost for policies that reduce the consumption of cigarettes. Additional research to estimate this important rule-of-thumb is desirable to address the various caveats relevant to this study. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poyer, D.A.

In this report, tests of statistical significance of five sets of variables with household energy consumption (at the point of end-use) are described. Five models, in sequence, were empirically estimated and tested for statistical significance by using the Residential Energy Consumption Survey of the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Each model incorporated additional information, embodied in a set of variables not previously specified in the energy demand system. The variable sets were generally labeled as economic variables, weather variables, household-structure variables, end-use variables, and housing-type variables. The tests of statistical significance showed each of the variable sets tomore » be highly significant in explaining the overall variance in energy consumption. The findings imply that the contemporaneous interaction of different types of variables, and not just one exclusive set of variables, determines the level of household energy consumption.« less

By how much would limiting TV food advertising reduce childhood obesity?

PubMed

Veerman, J Lennert; Van Beeck, Eduard F; Barendregt, Jan J; Mackenbach, Johan P

2009-08-01

There is evidence suggesting that food advertising causes childhood obesity. The strength of this effect is unclear. To inform decisions on whether to restrict advertising opportunities, we estimate how much of the childhood obesity prevalence is attributable to food advertising on television (TV). We constructed a mathematical simulation model to estimate the potential effects of reducing the exposure of 6- to 12-year-old US children to TV advertising for food on the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Model input was based on body measurements from NHANES 2003-04, the CDC-2000 cut-offs for weight categories, and literature that relates advertising to consumption levels and consumption to body mass. In an additional analysis we use a Delphi study to obtain experts' estimates of the effect of advertising on consumption. Based on literature findings, the model predicts that reducing the exposure to zero would decrease the average BMI by 0.38 kg/m(-2) and lower the prevalence of obesity from 17.8 to 15.2% (95% uncertainty interval 14.8-15.6) for boys and from 15.9% to 13.5% (13.1-13.8) for girls. When estimates are based on expert opinion, these values are 11.0% (7.7-14.0) and 9.9% (7.2-12.4), respectively. This study suggests that from one in seven up to one in three obese children in the USA might not have been obese in the absence of advertising for unhealthy food on TV. Limiting the exposure of children to marketing of energy-dense food could be part of a broader effort to make children's diets healthier.

Computational Model for Oxygen Transport and Consumption in Human Vitreous

PubMed Central

Filas, Benjamen A.; Shui, Ying-Bo; Beebe, David C.

2013-01-01

Purpose. Previous studies that measured liquefaction and oxygen content in human vitreous suggested that exposure of the lens to excess oxygen causes nuclear cataracts. Here, we developed a computational model that reproduced available experimental oxygen distributions for intact and degraded human vitreous in physiologic and environmentally perturbed conditions. After validation, the model was used to estimate how age-related changes in vitreous physiology and structure alter oxygen levels at the lens. Methods. A finite-element model for oxygen transport and consumption in the human vitreous was created. Major inputs included ascorbate-mediated oxygen consumption in the vitreous, consumption at the posterior lens surface, and inflow from the retinal vasculature. Concentration-dependent relations were determined from experimental human data or estimated from animal studies, with the impact of all assumptions explored via parameter studies. Results. The model reproduced experimental data in humans, including oxygen partial pressure (Po2) gradients (≈15 mm Hg) across the anterior-posterior extent of the vitreous body, higher oxygen levels at the pars plana relative to the vitreous core, increases in Po2 near the lens after cataract surgery, and equilibration in the vitreous chamber following vitrectomy. Loss of the antioxidative capacity of ascorbate increases oxygen levels 3-fold at the lens surface. Homogeneous vitreous degeneration (liquefaction), but not partial posterior vitreous detachment, greatly increases oxygen exposure to the lens. Conclusions. Ascorbate content and the structure of the vitreous gel are critical determinants of lens oxygen exposure. Minimally invasive surgery and restoration of vitreous structure warrant further attention as strategies for preventing nuclear cataracts. PMID:24008409

Computational model for oxygen transport and consumption in human vitreous.

PubMed

Filas, Benjamen A; Shui, Ying-Bo; Beebe, David C

2013-10-15

Previous studies that measured liquefaction and oxygen content in human vitreous suggested that exposure of the lens to excess oxygen causes nuclear cataracts. Here, we developed a computational model that reproduced available experimental oxygen distributions for intact and degraded human vitreous in physiologic and environmentally perturbed conditions. After validation, the model was used to estimate how age-related changes in vitreous physiology and structure alter oxygen levels at the lens. A finite-element model for oxygen transport and consumption in the human vitreous was created. Major inputs included ascorbate-mediated oxygen consumption in the vitreous, consumption at the posterior lens surface, and inflow from the retinal vasculature. Concentration-dependent relations were determined from experimental human data or estimated from animal studies, with the impact of all assumptions explored via parameter studies. The model reproduced experimental data in humans, including oxygen partial pressure (Po2) gradients (≈15 mm Hg) across the anterior-posterior extent of the vitreous body, higher oxygen levels at the pars plana relative to the vitreous core, increases in Po2 near the lens after cataract surgery, and equilibration in the vitreous chamber following vitrectomy. Loss of the antioxidative capacity of ascorbate increases oxygen levels 3-fold at the lens surface. Homogeneous vitreous degeneration (liquefaction), but not partial posterior vitreous detachment, greatly increases oxygen exposure to the lens. Ascorbate content and the structure of the vitreous gel are critical determinants of lens oxygen exposure. Minimally invasive surgery and restoration of vitreous structure warrant further attention as strategies for preventing nuclear cataracts.

Rational addiction to alcohol: panel data analysis of liquor consumption.

PubMed

Baltagi, Badi H; Griffin, James M

2002-09-01

Utilizing a panel data set of 42 states over the period 1959-1994, this paper estimates a rational addiction model for liquor consumption for the US. The empirical evidence is consistent with the rational addiction hypothesis proposed by Becker and Murphy. However, the results are sensitive to the assumption of homogeneity across states or over time. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An evaluation of the carbon balance technique for estimating emission factors and fuel consumption in forest fires

Treesearch

Nelson, Jr. Ralph M.

1982-01-01

Eighteen experimental fires were used to compare measured and calculated values for emission factors and fuel consumption to evaluate the carbon balance technique. The technique is based on a model for the emission factor of carbon dioxide, corrected for the production of other emissions, and which requires measurements of effluent concentrations and air volume in the...

College as Country Club: Do Colleges Cater to Students' Preferences for Consumption? NBER Working Paper No. 18745

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacob, Brian; McCall, Brian; Stange, Kevin M.

2013-01-01

This paper investigates whether demand-side market pressure explains colleges' decisions to provide consumption amenities to their students. We estimate a discrete choice model of college demand using micro data from the high school classes of 1992 and 2004, matched to extensive information on all four year colleges in the U.S. We find that most…

Socio-economic dietary inequalities in UK adults: an updated picture of key food groups and nutrients from national surveillance data.

PubMed

Maguire, Eva R; Monsivais, Pablo

2015-01-14

Socio-economic differences in diet are a potential contributor to health inequalities. The present study provides an up-to-date picture of socio-economic differences in diet in the UK, focusing on the consumption of three food groups and two nutrients of public health concern: fruit and vegetables; red and processed meat; oily fish; saturated fats; non-milk extrinsic sugars (NMES). We analysed data for 1491 adults (age ≥ 19 years) from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2011. Socio-economic indicators were household income, occupational social class and highest educational qualification. Covariate-adjusted estimates for intakes of fruit and vegetables, red and processed meat, and both nutrients were estimated using general linear models. Covariate-adjusted OR for oily fish consumption were derived with logistic regression models. We observed consistent socio-economic gradients in the consumption of the three food groups as estimated by all the three indicators. Contrasting highest and lowest levels of each socio-economic indicator, we observed significant differences in intakes for the three food groups and NMES. Depending on the socio-economic indicator, highest socio-economic groups consumed up to 128 g/d more fruit and vegetables, 26 g/d less red and processed meat, and 2·6% points less NMES (P< 0·05 for all). Relative to lowest socio-economic groups, highest socio-economic groups were 2·4 to 4·0 times more likely to eat oily fish. No significant patterns in saturated fat consumption were apparent. In conclusion, socio-economic differences were identified in the consumption of food groups and one nutrient of public health importance. Aligning dietary intakes with public health guidance may require interventions specifically designed to reduce health inequalities.

THE SHEFFIELD ALCOHOL POLICY MODEL - A MATHEMATICAL DESCRIPTION.

PubMed

Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel; Angus, Colin; Holmes, John

2014-09-30

This methodology paper sets out a mathematical description of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0, a model to evaluate public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction in the UK. Policies that can be appraised include a minimum price per unit of alcohol, restrictions on price discounting, and broader public health measures. The model estimates the impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers, retailers and government tax revenues. The synthesis of public and commercial data sources to inform the model structure is described. A detailed algebraic description of the model is provided. This involves quantifying baseline levels of alcohol purchasing and consumption by age and gender subgroups, estimating the impact of policies on consumption, for example, using evidence on price elasticities of demand for alcohol, quantification of risk functions relating alcohol consumption to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and finally monetary valuation of the consequences. The results framework, shown for a minimum price per unit of alcohol, has been used to provide policy appraisals for the UK government policy-makers. In discussion and online appendix, we explore issues around valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions, and ongoing plans for further development. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

AERIS : State-of-the-Practice Scan of Environmental Models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-24

This report has been developed under the Track 1 effort of Phase 1 of the AERIS program and presents the findings of the state-of-the-practice scan of environmental models to estimate environmental impacts (emissions, fuel consumption, etc.) due to c...

Human campylobacteriosis related to the consumption of raw milk sold by vending machines in Italy: Quantitative risk assessment based on official controls over four years.

PubMed

Giacometti, Federica; Bonilauri, Paolo; Amatiste, Simonetta; Arrigoni, Norma; Bianchi, Manila; Losio, Marina Nadia; Bilei, Stefano; Cascone, Giuseppe; Comin, Damiano; Daminelli, Paolo; Decastelli, Lucia; Merialdi, Giuseppe; Mioni, Renzo; Peli, Angelo; Petruzzelli, Annalisa; Tonucci, Franco; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

2015-09-01

A quantitative risk assessment (RA) model was developed to describe the risk of campylobacteriosis linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. Exposure assessment was based on the official microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2011, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. Two separate RA models were developed, one for the consumption of boiled milk and the other for the consumption of raw milk, and two different dose-response (D-R) relationships were considered. The RA model predicted no human campylobacteriosis cases per year either in the best (4°C) storage conditions or in the case of thermal abuse in case of boiling raw milk, whereas in case of raw milk consumption the annual estimated campylobacteriosis cases depend on the dose-response relationships used in the model (D-R I or D-R II), the milk time-temperature storage conditions, consumer behaviour and age of consumers, namely young (with two cut-off values of ≤5 or ≤6 years old for the sensitive population) versus adult consumers. The annual estimated cases for young consumers using D-R II for the sensitive population (≤5 years old) ranged between 1013.7/100,000 population and 8110.3/100,000 population and for adult consumers using D-R I between 79.4/100,000 population and 333.1/100,000 population. Quantification of the risks associated with raw milk consumption is necessary from a public health perspective and the proposed RA model represents a useful and flexible tool to perform future RAs based on local consumer habits to support decision-making on safety policies. Further educational programmes for raw milk consumers or potential raw milk consumers are required to encourage consumers to boil milk to reduce the associated risk of illness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social and economic value of Portuguese community pharmacies in health care.

PubMed

Félix, Jorge; Ferreira, Diana; Afonso-Silva, Marta; Gomes, Marta Vargas; Ferreira, César; Vandewalle, Björn; Marques, Sara; Mota, Melina; Costa, Suzete; Cary, Maria; Teixeira, Inês; Paulino, Ema; Macedo, Bruno; Barbosa, Carlos Maurício

2017-08-29

Community pharmacies are major contributors to health care systems across the world. Several studies have been conducted to evaluate community pharmacies services in health care. The purpose of this study was to estimate the social and economic benefits of current and potential future community pharmacies services provided by pharmacists in health care in Portugal. The social and economic value of community pharmacies services was estimated through a decision-model. Model inputs included effectiveness data, quality of life (QoL) and health resource consumption, obtained though literature review and adapted to Portuguese reality by an expert panel. The estimated economic value was the result of non-remunerated pharmaceutical services plus health resource consumption potentially avoided. Social and economic value of community pharmacies services derives from the comparison of two scenarios: "with service" versus "without service". It is estimated that current community pharmacies services in Portugal provide a gain in QoL of 8.3% and an economic value of 879.6 million euros (M€), including 342.1 M€ in non-remunerated pharmaceutical services and 448.1 M€ in avoided expense with health resource consumption. Potential future community pharmacies services may provide an additional increase of 6.9% in QoL and be associated with an economic value of 144.8 M€: 120.3 M€ in non-remunerated services and 24.5 M€ in potential savings with health resource consumption. Community pharmacies services provide considerable benefit in QoL and economic value. An increase range of services including a greater integration in primary and secondary care, among other transversal services, may add further social and economic value to the society.

GDP and efficiency of Russian economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borodachev, Sergey M.

2018-01-01

The goal is to study GDP (gross domestic product) as an unobservable characteristic of the Russian national economy state on the basis of more reliable observed data on gross output (systems output) and final consumption (systems control). To do this, the dynamic Leontief model is presented in a system-like form and its parameters and GDP dynamics are estimated by the Kalman filter (KF). We consider that all previous year's investments affect the growth of the gross output by the next year. The weights of these investments in the sum are equal to unity and decrease in geometric progression. The estimation of the model parameters was carried out by the maximum likelihood method. The original data on the gross output and final consumption in the period from 1995 to 2015 years where taken from the Rosstat website, where maximally aggregated economy of Russia is reflected in the system of national accounts. The growth of direct costs and capital expenditures at gross output increase has been discovered, which indicates the extensive character of the development of the economy. Investments are being absorbed 2 - 4 years; any change of them causes a surge of commissioned fixed assets fluctuation with a period of 2 years. Then these parameter values were used in the KF to estimate the states of the system. The emerging tendency of the transition of GDP growth to its fall means that the rate of growth of final consumption is higher than the rate of GDP growth. In general, the behavior of the curve of Rosstat GDP obviously follows the declared investments, whereas in the present calculation it is closer to the behavior of final consumption. Estimated GDP and investments that really increased it were significantly less after the crisis of 2008-2009 years than officially published data.

Do gamblers eat more salt? Testing a latent trait model of covariance in consumption

PubMed Central

Goodwin, Belinda C.; Browne, Matthew; Rockloff, Matthew; Donaldson, Phillip

2015-01-01

A diverse class of stimuli, including certain foods, substances, media, and economic behaviours, may be described as ‘reward-oriented’ in that they provide immediate reinforcement with little initial investment. Neurophysiological and personality concepts, including dopaminergic dysfunction, reward sensitivity and rash impulsivity, each predict the existence of a latent behavioural trait that leads to increased consumption of all stimuli in this class. Whilst bivariate relationships (co-morbidities) are often reported in the literature, to our knowledge, a multivariate investigation of this possible trait has not been done. We surveyed 1,194 participants (550 male) on their typical weekly consumption of 11 types of reward-oriented stimuli, including fast food, salt, caffeine, television, gambling products, and illicit drugs. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to compare models in a 3×3 structure, based on the definition of a single latent factor (none, fixed loadings, or estimated loadings), and assumed residual covariance structure (none, a-priori / literature based, or post-hoc / data-driven). The inclusion of a single latent behavioural ‘consumption’ factor significantly improved model fit in all cases. Also confirming theoretical predictions, estimated factor loadings on reward-oriented indicators were uniformly positive, regardless of assumptions regarding residual covariances. Additionally, the latent trait was found to be negatively correlated with the non-reward-oriented indicators of fruit and vegetable consumption. The findings support the notion of a single behavioural trait leading to increased consumption of reward-oriented stimuli across multiple modalities. We discuss implications regarding the concentration of negative lifestyle-related health behaviours. PMID:26551907

An investigation on the determinants of carbon emissions for OECD countries: empirical evidence from panel models robust to heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence.

PubMed

Dogan, Eyup; Seker, Fahri

2016-07-01

This empirical study analyzes the impacts of real income, energy consumption, financial development and trade openness on CO2 emissions for the OECD countries in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model by using panel econometric approaches that consider issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Results from the Pesaran CD test, the Pesaran-Yamagata's homogeneity test, the CADF and the CIPS unit root tests, the LM bootstrap cointegration test, the DSUR estimator, and the Emirmahmutoglu-Kose Granger causality test indicate that (i) the panel time-series data are heterogeneous and cross-sectionally dependent; (ii) CO2 emissions, real income, the quadratic income, energy consumption, financial development and openness are integrated of order one; (iii) the analyzed data are cointegrated; (iv) the EKC hypothesis is validated for the OECD countries; (v) increases in openness and financial development mitigate the level of emissions whereas energy consumption contributes to carbon emissions; (vi) a variety of Granger causal relationship is detected among the analyzed variables; and (vii) empirical results and policy recommendations are accurate and efficient since panel econometric models used in this study account for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in their estimation procedures.

Emissions from ships in the northwestern United States.

PubMed

Corbett, James J

2002-03-15

Recent inventory efforts have focused on developing nonroad inventories for emissions modeling and policy insights. Characterizing these inventories geographically and explicitly treating the uncertaintiesthat result from limited emissions testing, incomplete activity and usage data, and other important input parameters currently pose the largest methodological challenges. This paper presents a commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions inventory for Washington and Oregon using detailed statistics regarding fuel consumption, vessel movements, and cargo volumes for the Columbia and Snake River systems. The inventory estimates emissions for oxides of nitrogen (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and oxides of sulfur (SOx). This analysis estimates that annual NOx emissions from marine transportation in the Columbia and Snake River systems in Washington and Oregon equal 6900 t of NOx (as NO2) per year, 2.6 times greater than previous NO, inventories for this region. Statewide CMV NO, emissions are estimated to be 9,800 t of NOx per year. By relying on a "bottom-up" fuel consumption model that includes vessel characteristics and transit information, the river system inventory may be more accurate than previous estimates. This inventory provides modelers with bounded parametric inputs for sensitivity analysis in pollution modeling. The ability to parametrically model the uncertainty in commercial marine vessel inventories also will help policy-makers determine whether better policy decisions can be enabled through further vessel testing and improved inventory resolution.

Safe Upper-Bounds Inference of Energy Consumption for Java Bytecode Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Navas, Jorge; Mendez-Lojo, Mario; Hermenegildo, Manuel V.

2008-01-01

Many space applications such as sensor networks, on-board satellite-based platforms, on-board vehicle monitoring systems, etc. handle large amounts of data and analysis of such data is often critical for the scientific mission. Transmitting such large amounts of data to the remote control station for analysis is usually too expensive for time-critical applications. Instead, modern space applications are increasingly relying on autonomous on-board data analysis. All these applications face many resource constraints. A key requirement is to minimize energy consumption. Several approaches have been developed for estimating the energy consumption of such applications (e.g. [3, 1]) based on measuring actual consumption at run-time for large sets of random inputs. However, this approach has the limitation that it is in general not possible to cover all possible inputs. Using formal techniques offers the potential for inferring safe energy consumption bounds, thus being specially interesting for space exploration and safety-critical systems. We have proposed and implemented a general frame- work for resource usage analysis of Java bytecode [2]. The user defines a set of resource(s) of interest to be tracked and some annotations that describe the cost of some elementary elements of the program for those resources. These values can be constants or, more generally, functions of the input data sizes. The analysis then statically derives an upper bound on the amount of those resources that the program as a whole will consume or provide, also as functions of the input data sizes. This article develops a novel application of the analysis of [2] to inferring safe upper bounds on the energy consumption of Java bytecode applications. We first use a resource model that describes the cost of each bytecode instruction in terms of the joules it consumes. With this resource model, we then generate energy consumption cost relations, which are then used to infer safe upper bounds. How energy consumption for each bytecode instruction is measured is beyond the scope of this paper. Instead, this paper is about how to infer safe energy consumption estimations assuming that those energy consumption costs are provided. For concreteness, we use a simplified version of an existing resource model [1] in which an energy consumption cost for individual Java opcodes is defined.

Gene–Environment Correlation: Difficulties and a Natural Experiment–Based Strategy

PubMed Central

Li, Jiang; Liu, Hexuan; Guo, Guang

2013-01-01

Objectives. We explored how gene–environment correlations can result in endogenous models, how natural experiments can protect against this threat, and if unbiased estimates from natural experiments are generalizable to other contexts. Methods. We compared a natural experiment, the College Roommate Study, which measured genes and behaviors of college students and their randomly assigned roommates in a southern public university, with observational data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health in 2008. We predicted exposure to exercising peers using genetic markers and estimated environmental effects on alcohol consumption. A mixed-linear model estimated an alcohol consumption variance that was attributable to genetic markers and across peer environments. Results. Peer exercise environment was associated with respondent genotype in observational data, but not in the natural experiment. The effects of peer drinking and presence of a general gene–environment interaction were similar between data sets. Conclusions. Natural experiments, like random roommate assignment, could protect against potential bias introduced by gene–environment correlations. When combined with representative observational data, unbiased and generalizable causal effects could be estimated. PMID:23927502

Price impact on urban residential water demand: A dynamic panel data approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ArbuéS, Fernando; BarberáN, Ramón; Villanúa, Inmaculada

2004-11-01

In this paper, we formulate and estimate a model of residential water demand with the aim of evaluating the potential of pricing policies as a mechanism for managing residential water. The proposed econometric model offers a new perspective on urban water demand analysis by combining microlevel data with a dynamic panel data estimation procedure. The empirical application suggests that residential users are more responsive to a lagged average price specification. Another result of the estimated model is that price is a moderately effective tool in reducing residential water demand within the present range of prices, with the estimated values for income elasticity and "elasticity of consumption with respect to family size" reinforcing this conclusion.

Effects of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Caries and Treatment Costs.

PubMed

Schwendicke, F; Thomson, W M; Broadbent, J M; Stolpe, M

2016-11-01

Caries increment is affected by sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. Taxing SSBs could reduce sugar consumption and caries increment. The authors aimed to estimate the impact of a 20% SSB sales tax on caries increment and associated treatment costs (as well as the resulting tax revenue) in the context of Germany. A model-based approach was taken, estimating the effects for the German population aged 14 to 79 y over a 10-y period. Taxation was assumed to affect beverage-associated sugar consumption via empirical demand elasticities. Altered consumption affected caries increments and treatment costs, with cost estimates being calculated under the perspective of the statutory health insurance. National representative consumption and price data were used to estimate tax revenue. Microsimulations were performed to estimate health outcomes, costs, and revenue impact in different age, sex, and income groups. Implementing a 20% SSB sales tax reduced sugar consumption in nearly all male groups but in fewer female groups. The reduction was larger among younger than older individuals and among those with low income. Taxation reduced caries increment and treatment costs especially in younger (rather than older) individuals and those with low income. Over 10 y, mean (SD) net caries increments at the population level were 82.27 (1.15) million and 83.02 (1.08) million teeth at 20% and 0% SSB tax, respectively. These generated treatment costs of 2.64 (0.39) billion and 2.72 (0.35) billion euro, respectively. Additional tax revenue was 37.99 (3.41) billion euro over the 10 y. In conclusion and within the limitations of this study's perspective, database, and underlying assumptions, implementing a 20% sales tax on SSBs is likely to reduce caries increment, especially in young low-income males, thereby also reducing inequalities in the distribution of caries experience. Taxation would also reduce treatment costs. However, these reductions might be limited in the total population.

Predicting Energy Performance of a Net-Zero Energy Building: A Statistical Approach

PubMed Central

Kneifel, Joshua; Webb, David

2016-01-01

Performance-based building requirements have become more prevalent because it gives freedom in building design while still maintaining or exceeding the energy performance required by prescriptive-based requirements. In order to determine if building designs reach target energy efficiency improvements, it is necessary to estimate the energy performance of a building using predictive models and different weather conditions. Physics-based whole building energy simulation modeling is the most common approach. However, these physics-based models include underlying assumptions and require significant amounts of information in order to specify the input parameter values. An alternative approach to test the performance of a building is to develop a statistically derived predictive regression model using post-occupancy data that can accurately predict energy consumption and production based on a few common weather-based factors, thus requiring less information than simulation models. A regression model based on measured data should be able to predict energy performance of a building for a given day as long as the weather conditions are similar to those during the data collection time frame. This article uses data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Net-Zero Energy Residential Test Facility (NZERTF) to develop and validate a regression model to predict the energy performance of the NZERTF using two weather variables aggregated to the daily level, applies the model to estimate the energy performance of hypothetical NZERTFs located in different cities in the Mixed-Humid climate zone, and compares these estimates to the results from already existing EnergyPlus whole building energy simulations. This regression model exhibits agreement with EnergyPlus predictive trends in energy production and net consumption, but differs greatly in energy consumption. The model can be used as a framework for alternative and more complex models based on the experimental data collected from the NZERTF. PMID:27956756

Predicting Energy Performance of a Net-Zero Energy Building: A Statistical Approach.

PubMed

Kneifel, Joshua; Webb, David

2016-09-01

Performance-based building requirements have become more prevalent because it gives freedom in building design while still maintaining or exceeding the energy performance required by prescriptive-based requirements. In order to determine if building designs reach target energy efficiency improvements, it is necessary to estimate the energy performance of a building using predictive models and different weather conditions. Physics-based whole building energy simulation modeling is the most common approach. However, these physics-based models include underlying assumptions and require significant amounts of information in order to specify the input parameter values. An alternative approach to test the performance of a building is to develop a statistically derived predictive regression model using post-occupancy data that can accurately predict energy consumption and production based on a few common weather-based factors, thus requiring less information than simulation models. A regression model based on measured data should be able to predict energy performance of a building for a given day as long as the weather conditions are similar to those during the data collection time frame. This article uses data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Net-Zero Energy Residential Test Facility (NZERTF) to develop and validate a regression model to predict the energy performance of the NZERTF using two weather variables aggregated to the daily level, applies the model to estimate the energy performance of hypothetical NZERTFs located in different cities in the Mixed-Humid climate zone, and compares these estimates to the results from already existing EnergyPlus whole building energy simulations. This regression model exhibits agreement with EnergyPlus predictive trends in energy production and net consumption, but differs greatly in energy consumption. The model can be used as a framework for alternative and more complex models based on the experimental data collected from the NZERTF.

Parameterization models for pesticide exposure via crop consumption.

PubMed

Fantke, Peter; Wieland, Peter; Juraske, Ronnie; Shaddick, Gavin; Itoiz, Eva Sevigné; Friedrich, Rainer; Jolliet, Olivier

2012-12-04

An approach for estimating human exposure to pesticides via consumption of six important food crops is presented that can be used to extend multimedia models applied in health risk and life cycle impact assessment. We first assessed the variation of model output (pesticide residues per kg applied) as a function of model input variables (substance, crop, and environmental properties) including their possible correlations using matrix algebra. We identified five key parameters responsible for between 80% and 93% of the variation in pesticide residues, namely time between substance application and crop harvest, degradation half-lives in crops and on crop surfaces, overall residence times in soil, and substance molecular weight. Partition coefficients also play an important role for fruit trees and tomato (Kow), potato (Koc), and lettuce (Kaw, Kow). Focusing on these parameters, we develop crop-specific models by parametrizing a complex fate and exposure assessment framework. The parametric models thereby reflect the framework's physical and chemical mechanisms and predict pesticide residues in harvest using linear combinations of crop, crop surface, and soil compartments. Parametric model results correspond well with results from the complex framework for 1540 substance-crop combinations with total deviations between a factor 4 (potato) and a factor 66 (lettuce). Predicted residues also correspond well with experimental data previously used to evaluate the complex framework. Pesticide mass in harvest can finally be combined with reduction factors accounting for food processing to estimate human exposure from crop consumption. All parametric models can be easily implemented into existing assessment frameworks.

Evaluation of a Mysis bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chipps, S.R.; Bennett, D.H.

2002-01-01

Direct approaches for estimating the feeding rate of the opossum shrimp Mysis relicta can be hampered by variable gut residence time (evacuation rate models) and non-linear functional responses (clearance rate models). Bioenergetics modeling provides an alternative method, but the reliability of this approach needs to be evaluated using independent measures of growth and food consumption. In this study, we measured growth and food consumption for M. relicta and compared experimental results with those predicted from a Mysis bioenergetics model. For Mysis reared at 10??C, model predictions were not significantly different from observed values. Moreover, decomposition of mean square error indicated that 70% of the variation between model predictions and observed values was attributable to random error. On average, model predictions were within 12% of observed values. A sensitivity analysis revealed that Mysis respiration and prey energy density were the most sensitive parameters affecting model output. By accounting for uncertainty (95% CLs) in Mysis respiration, we observed a significant improvement in the accuracy of model output (within 5% of observed values), illustrating the importance of sensitive input parameters for model performance. These findings help corroborate the Mysis bioenergetics model and demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for estimating Mysis feeding rate.

How to estimate green house gas (GHG) emissions from an excavator by using CAT's performance chart

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajji, Apif M.; Lewis, Michael P.

2017-09-01

Construction equipment activities are a major part of many infrastructure projects. This type of equipment typically releases large quantities of green house gas (GHG) emissions. GHG emissions may come from fuel consumption. Furthermore, equipment productivity affects the fuel consumption. Thus, an estimating tool based on the construction equipment productivity rate is able to accurately assess the GHG emissions resulted from the equipment activities. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the environmental impact for a common construction activity. This paper delivers sensitivity analysis and a case study for an excavator based on trench excavation activity. The methodology delivered in this study can be applied to a stand-alone model, or a module that is integrated with other emissions estimators. The GHG emissions are highly correlated to diesel fuel use, which is approximately 10.15 kilograms (kg) of CO2 per gallon of diesel fuel. The results showed that the productivity rate model as the result from multiple regression analysis can be used as the basis for estimating GHG emissions, and also as the framework for developing emissions footprint and understanding the environmental impact from construction equipment activities introduction.

Consumption of Whole-Grain Bread and Risk of Colorectal Cancer among Norwegian Women (the NOWAC Study).

PubMed

Bakken, Toril; Braaten, Tonje; Olsen, Anja; Kyrø, Cecilie; Lund, Eiliv; Skeie, Guri

2016-01-13

There is evidence that consumption of foods containing dietary fiber decreases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Whole grains contain dietary fiber, as well as a range of micronutrients and bioactive compounds, but the association between the consumption of whole grains and the risk of CRC remains less studied. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between whole-grain bread consumption and CRC incidence among Norwegian women, using data from a prospective cohort study (the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study). Dietary intake was estimated from the food-frequency questionnaires of 78,254 women in the cohort (median age: 55 years), and these women were then followed up for CRC incidence. During the 9 years of median follow-up, 795 women were diagnosed with CRC (316 proximal, 193 distal, 218 rectal). Associations between whole-grain bread consumption and the risk of CRC (including colorectal subsites) were investigated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. When compared to the low consumption group, the hazard ratio for CRC was 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-1.09) for the high consumption group and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.72-1.02) for the medium consumption group in a multivariable model. Overall, no association between whole-grain bread consumption and CRC was found.

Estimating the potential of taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages to reduce consumption and generate revenue.

PubMed

Andreyeva, Tatiana; Chaloupka, Frank J; Brownell, Kelly D

2011-06-01

Beverage taxes came into light with increasing concerns about obesity, particularly among youth. Sugar-sweetened beverages have become a target of anti-obesity initiatives with increasing evidence of their link to obesity. Our paper offers a method for estimating revenues from an excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages that governments of various levels could direct towards obesity prevention. We construct a model projecting beverage consumption and tax revenues based on best available data on regional beverage consumption, historic trends and recent estimates of the price elasticity of sugar-sweetened beverage demand. The public health impact of beverage taxes could be substantial. An estimated 24% reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption from a penny-per-ounce sugar-sweetened beverage tax could reduce daily per capita caloric intake from sugar-sweetened beverages from the current 190-200 cal to 145-150 cal, if there is no substitution to other caloric beverages or food. A national penny-per-ounce tax on sugar-sweetened beverages could generate new tax revenue of $79 billion over 2010-2015. A modest tax on sugar-sweetened beverages could both raise significant revenues and improve public health by reducing obesity. To the extent that at least some of the tax revenues get invested in obesity prevention programs, the public health benefits could be even more pronounced. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methods for Analysis of Urban Energy Systems: A New York City Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, Bianca

This dissertation describes methods developed for analysis of the New York City energy system. The analysis specifically aims to consider the built environment and its' impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several contributions to the urban energy systems literature were made. First, estimates of annual energy intensities of the New York building stock were derived using a statistical analysis that leveraged energy consumption and tax assessor data collected by the Office of the Mayor. These estimates provided the basis for an assessment of the spatial distribution of building energy consumption. The energy consumption estimates were then leveraged to estimate the potential for combined heat and power (CHP) systems in New York City at both the building and microgrid scales. In aggregate, given the 2009 non-baseload GHG emissions factors for electricity production, these systems could reduce citywide GHG emissions by 10%. The operational characteristics of CHP systems were explored further considering different prime movers, climates, and GHG emissions factors. A combination of mixed integer linear programing and controlled random search algorithms were the methods used to determine the optimal capacity and operating strategies for the CHP systems under the various scenarios. Lastly a multi-regional unit commitment model of electricity and GHG emissions production for New York State was developed using data collected from several publicly available sources. The model was used to estimate average and marginal GHG emissions factors for New York State and New York City. The analysis found that marginal GHG emissions factors could reduce by 30% to 370 g CO2e/kWh in the next 10 years.

Highway Effects on Vehicle Performance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

A user-friendly model for personal computers, "Vehicle/Highway Performance Predictor," was developed to estimate fuel consumption and exhaust emissions related to modes of vehicle operations on highways of various configurations and traffic controls ...

Vodka and Violence: Alcohol Consumption and Homicide Rates in Russia

PubMed Central

Pridemore, William Alex

2002-01-01

In Russia, rates of alcohol consumption and homicide are among the highest in the world, and already-high levels increased dramatically after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Rates of both, however, vary greatly among Russia’s 89 regions. We took advantage of newly available vital statistics and socioeconomic data to examine the regional covariation of drinking and lethal violence. Log-log models were employed to estimate the impact of alcohol consumption on regional homicide rates, controlling for structural factors thought to influence the spatial distribution of homicide rates. Results revealed a positive and significant relationship between alcohol consumption and homicide, with a 1% increase in regional consumption of alcohol associated with an approximately 0.25% increase in homicide rates. In Russia, higher regional rates of alcohol consumption are associated with higher rates of homicide. PMID:12453810

Vodka and violence: alcohol consumption and homicide rates in Russia.

PubMed

Pridemore, William Alex

2002-12-01

In Russia, rates of alcohol consumption and homicide are among the highest in the world, and already-high levels increased dramatically after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Rates of both, however, vary greatly among Russia's 89 regions. We took advantage of newly available vital statistics and socioeconomic data to examine the regional covariation of drinking and lethal violence. Log-log models were employed to estimate the impact of alcohol consumption on regional homicide rates, controlling for structural factors thought to influence the spatial distribution of homicide rates. Results revealed a positive and significant relationship between alcohol consumption and homicide, with a 1% increase in regional consumption of alcohol associated with an approximately 0.25% increase in homicide rates. In Russia, higher regional rates of alcohol consumption are associated with higher rates of homicide.

Gradient boosting machine for modeling the energy consumption of commercial buildings

DOE PAGES

Touzani, Samir; Granderson, Jessica; Fernandes, Samuel

2017-11-26

Accurate savings estimations are important to promote energy efficiency projects and demonstrate their cost-effectiveness. The increasing presence of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) in commercial buildings has resulted in a rising availability of high frequency interval data. These data can be used for a variety of energy efficiency applications such as demand response, fault detection and diagnosis, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) optimization. This large amount of data has also opened the door to the use of advanced statistical learning models, which hold promise for providing accurate building baseline energy consumption predictions, and thus accurate saving estimations. The gradientmore » boosting machine is a powerful machine learning algorithm that is gaining considerable traction in a wide range of data driven applications, such as ecology, computer vision, and biology. In the present work an energy consumption baseline modeling method based on a gradient boosting machine was proposed. To assess the performance of this method, a recently published testing procedure was used on a large dataset of 410 commercial buildings. The model training periods were varied and several prediction accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the model's performance. The results show that using the gradient boosting machine model improved the R-squared prediction accuracy and the CV(RMSE) in more than 80 percent of the cases, when compared to an industry best practice model that is based on piecewise linear regression, and to a random forest algorithm.« less

Gradient boosting machine for modeling the energy consumption of commercial buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Touzani, Samir; Granderson, Jessica; Fernandes, Samuel

Accurate savings estimations are important to promote energy efficiency projects and demonstrate their cost-effectiveness. The increasing presence of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) in commercial buildings has resulted in a rising availability of high frequency interval data. These data can be used for a variety of energy efficiency applications such as demand response, fault detection and diagnosis, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) optimization. This large amount of data has also opened the door to the use of advanced statistical learning models, which hold promise for providing accurate building baseline energy consumption predictions, and thus accurate saving estimations. The gradientmore » boosting machine is a powerful machine learning algorithm that is gaining considerable traction in a wide range of data driven applications, such as ecology, computer vision, and biology. In the present work an energy consumption baseline modeling method based on a gradient boosting machine was proposed. To assess the performance of this method, a recently published testing procedure was used on a large dataset of 410 commercial buildings. The model training periods were varied and several prediction accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the model's performance. The results show that using the gradient boosting machine model improved the R-squared prediction accuracy and the CV(RMSE) in more than 80 percent of the cases, when compared to an industry best practice model that is based on piecewise linear regression, and to a random forest algorithm.« less

Total materials consumption; an estimation methodology and example using lead; a materials flow analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biviano, Marilyn B.; Wagner, Lorie A.; Sullivan, Daniel E.

1999-01-01

Materials consumption estimates, such as apparent consumption of raw materials, can be important indicators of sustainability. Apparent consumption of raw materials does not account for material contained in manufactured products that are imported or exported and may thus under- or over-estimate total consumption of materials in the domestic economy. This report demonstrates a methodology to measure the amount of materials contained in net imports (imports minus exports), using lead as an example. The analysis presents illustrations of differences between apparent and total consumption of lead and distributes these differences into individual lead-consuming sectors.

Estimates of consumptive use and ground-water return flow using water budgets in Palo Verde Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Owen-Joyce, Sandra J.; Kimsey, Steven L.

1987-01-01

Palo Verde Valley, California, is an agricultural area in the flood plain of the Colorado River where irrigation water is diverted from the river and groundwater is discharged to a network of drainage ditches and (or) the river. Consumptive use by vegetation and groundwater return flow were calculated using water budgets. Consumptive use by vegetation was 484,000 acre-ft in 1981, 453,600 acre-ft in 1982, 364,400 acre-ft in 1983, and 374,300 acre-ft in 1984. The consumptive-use estimates are most sensitive to two measured components of the water budget, the diversion at Palo Verde Dam and the discharge from drainage ditches to the river. Groundwater return flow was 31,700 acre-ft in 1981, 24,000 acre-ft in 1982, 2,500 acre-ft in 1983, and 7 ,900 acre-ft in 1984. The return-flow estimates are most sensitive to discharge from drainage ditches; various irrigation requirements and crop areas, particularly alfalfa; the diversion at Palo Verde Dam; and the estimate of consumptive use. During increasing flows in the river, the estimate of groundwater return flow is sensitive also to change in groundwater storage. Change in groundwater storage was estimated to be -5,700 acre-ft in 1981, -12,600 acre-ft in 1982, 5,200 acre-ft in 1983, and 11 ,600 acre-ft in 1984. Changes in storage can be a significant component in the water budget used to estimate groundwater return flow but is negligible in the water budget used to estimate consumptive use. Change in storage was 1 to 3% of annual consumptive use. Change in storage for the area drained by the river ranged from 7 to 96% of annual groundwater return flow during the 4 years studied. Consumptive use calculated as diversions minus return flows was consistently lower than consumptive use calculated in a water budget. Water-budget estimates of consumptive use account for variations in precipitation, tributary inflow, river stage, and groundwater storage. The calculations for diversions minus return flows do not account for these components, which can be large enough to affect the estimates of consumptive use. (Author 's abstract)

Modeling global macroclimatic constraints on ectotherm energy budgets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grant, B.W.; Porter, W.P.

1992-12-31

The authors describe a mechanistic individual-based model of how global macroclimatic constraints affect the energy budgets of ectothermic animals. The model uses macroclimatic and biophysical characters of the habitat and organism and tenets of heat transfer theory to calculate hourly temperature availabilities over a year. Data on the temperature dependence of activity rate, metabolism, food consumption and food processing capacity are used to estimate the net rate of resource assimilation which is then integrated over time. They present a new test of this model in which they show that the predicted energy budget sizes for 11 populations of the lizardmore » Sceloporus undulates are in close agreement with observed results from previous field studies. This demonstrates that model tests rae feasible and the results are reasonable. Further, since the model represents an upper bound to the size of the energy budget, observed residual deviations form explicit predictions about the effects of environmental constraints on the bioenergetics of the study lizards within each site that may be tested by future field and laboratory studies. Three major new improvements to the modeling are discussed. They present a means to estimate microclimate thermal heterogeneity more realistically and include its effects on field rates of individual activity and food consumption. Second, they describe an improved model of digestive function involving batch processing of consumed food. Third, they show how optimality methods (specifically the methods of stochastic dynamic programming) may be included to model the fitness consequences of energy allocation decisions subject to food consumption and processing constraints which are predicted from the microclimate and physiological modeling.« less

A likelihood-based biostatistical model for analyzing consumer movement in simultaneous choice experiments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Measures of animal movement versus consumption rates can provide valuable, ecologically relevant information on feeding preference, specifically estimates of attraction rate, leaving rate, tenure time, or measures of flight/walking path. Here, we develop a simple biostatistical model to analyze repe...

Planktivory in the changing Lake Huron zooplankton community: Bythotrephes consumption exceeds that of Mysis and fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, D.B.; Hunter, R. Douglas; Warner, D.M.; Chriscinske, M.A.; Roseman, E.F.

2011-01-01

Oligotrophic lakes are generally dominated by calanoid copepods because of their competitive advantage over cladocerans at low prey densities. Planktivory also can alter zooplankton community structure. We sought to understand the role of planktivory in driving recent changes to the zooplankton community of Lake Huron, a large oligotrophic lake on the border of Canada and the United States. We tested the hypothesis that excessive predation by fish (rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, bloater Coregonus hoyi) and invertebrates (Mysis relicta, Bythotrephes longimanus) had driven observed declines in cladoceran and cyclopoid copepod biomass between 2002 and 2007. We used a field sampling and bioenergetics modelling approach to generate estimates of daily consumption by planktivores at two 91-m depth sites in northern Lake Huron, U.S.A., for each month, May-October 2007. Daily consumption was compared to daily zooplankton production. Bythotrephes was the dominant planktivore and estimated to have eaten 78% of all zooplankton consumed. Bythotrephes consumption exceeded total zooplankton production between July and October. Mysis consumed 19% of all the zooplankton consumed and exceeded zooplankton production in October. Consumption by fish was relatively unimportant - eating only 3% of all zooplankton consumed. Because Bythotrephes was so important, we explored other consumption estimation methods that predict lower Bythotrephes consumption. Under this scenario, Mysis was the most important planktivore, and Bythotrephes consumption exceeded zooplankton production only in August. Our results provide no support for the hypothesis that excessive fish consumption directly contributed to the decline of cladocerans and cyclopoid copepods in Lake Huron. Rather, they highlight the importance of invertebrate planktivores in structuring zooplankton communities, especially for those foods webs that have both Bythotrephes and Mysis. Together, these species occupy the epi-, meta- and hypolimnion, leaving limited refuge for zooplankton prey. Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Influence of Smallmouth Bass predation on recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch in South Dakota glacial lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Willis, D.W.; Blackwell, B. G.; Chipps, Steven R.; Bacula, T. D.; Wuellner, M.R.

2015-01-01

We estimated the influence of predation by Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu on recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch Perca flavescens in two northeastern South Dakota glacial lakes. We estimated a likely range in consumption of age-0 Yellow Perch using Smallmouth Bass diet information from two time periods when age-0 Yellow Perch constituted high (2008) and low (2012 and 2013) proportions of Smallmouth Bass diets, and bass population size estimates as inputs in a bioenergetics model. The proportion of age-0 Yellow Perch consumed by the Smallmouth Bass populations was determined by comparing estimates of consumption with estimates of age-0 perch production. During 2008, age-0 Yellow Perch constituted between 0% and 42% of Smallmouth Bass diets by weight, whereas during 2012 and 2013, age-0 perch constituted between 0% and 20% of bass diets by weight. Across both lakes and time periods, production of age-0 Yellow Perch ranged from 0.32 to 1.78 kg·ha−1·week−1. Estimates of Smallmouth Bass consumption measured during the same intervals ranged from 0.06 to 0.33 kg·ha−1·week−1, equating to consumption of between 1% and 34% of the available Yellow Perch biomass. Given current conditions relative to Smallmouth Bass abundance and consumption dynamics and production of age-0 Yellow Perch, it does not appear that Smallmouth Bass predation acts as a singular factor limiting recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch in our study lakes. However, future research and management initiatives should recognize that the long-term impact of Smallmouth Bass predation is not static and will likely fluctuate depending on environmental (e.g., temperature) and biotic (e.g., trends in macrophyte abundance, predator and prey population structure and abundance, and predatory fish assemblage dynamics) characteristics.

The Accuracy and Correction of Fuel Consumption from Controller Area Network Broadcast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lijuan; Gonder, Jeffrey D; Wood, Eric W

Fuel consumption (FC) has always been an important factor in vehicle cost. With the advent of electronically controlled engines, the controller area network (CAN) broadcasts information about engine and vehicle performance, including fuel use. However, the accuracy of the FC estimates is uncertain. In this study, the researchers first compared CAN-broadcasted FC against physically measured fuel use for three different types of trucks, which revealed the inaccuracies of CAN-broadcast fueling estimates. To match precise gravimetric fuel-scale measurements, polynomial models were developed to correct the CAN-broadcasted FC. Lastly, the robustness testing of the correction models was performed. The training cycles inmore » this section included a variety of drive characteristics, such as high speed, acceleration, idling, and deceleration. The mean relative differences were reduced noticeably.« less

An in vitro assessment of bioaccessibility of arsenicals in rice and the use of this estimate within a probabilistic exposure model.

PubMed

Trenary, Heather R; Creed, Patricia A; Young, Andrea R; Mantha, Madhavi; Schwegel, Carol A; Xue, Jianping; Kohan, Michael J; Herbin-Davis, Karen; Thomas, David J; Caruso, Joseph A; Creed, John T

2012-07-01

In this study, an in vitro synthetic gastrointestinal extraction protocol was used to estimate bioaccessibility of different arsenicals present in 17 rice samples of various grain types that were collected across the United States. The across matrix average for total arsenic was 209 ng/g±153 (\\[xmacr]±2σ). The bioaccessibility estimate produced an across matrix average of 61%±19 (\\[xmacr]±2σ). The across matrix average concentrations of inorganic arsenic (iAs) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) were 81 ng/g±67.7 and 41 ng/g±58.1 (\\[xmacr]±2σ), respectively. This distribution of iAs concentrations in rice was combined with the distribution of consumption patterns (from WWEIA) in a Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulator model to estimate population-based exposures. The mean consumption rate for the population as a whole was 15.7 g per day resulting in a 0.98 μg iAs per day exposure. The mean consumption rate for children 1-2 years old was 7 g per day resulting in a 0.48 μg iAs per day exposure. Presystemic biotransformation of DMA in rice was examined using an in vitro assay containing the anaerobic microbiota of mouse cecum. This assay indicated that DMA extracted from the rice was converted to dimethylthioarsinic acid, although a second oxygen-sulfur exchange to produce DMDTA was not observed.

Satellite Supported Estimates of Human Rate of NPP Carbon Use on Land: Challenges Ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imhoff, M. L.; Bounoua, L.; Zhang, P.; Wolfe, R. E.

2010-12-01

The human demand for products of photosynthesis is a powerful measure of the aggregate impact of human action on the biosphere and indicator of societal vulnerability to climate change. We show results from several studies that use satellite and statistical data to estimate the amount of Earth’s net primary production (NPP) on land required to support regional and global use of food, fiber and NPP-based fuel products across a ten-year period. Earth’s planetary NPP ‘supply’ was estimated using AVHRR vegetation index and MODIS derived NPP products to establish a baseline extending from 1982 - 2005. NPP carbon ‘demand’ was estimated by applying biophysical models to consumption data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization to calculate the annual amount of NPP required for the products consumed. Results show that globally, humans consume more than 20% of Earth’s total net primary production on land and that both populations and per capita consumption increased between 1995 and 2005. Regionally, the NPP-carbon balance percentage varies from 6% to over 70% and locally from near 0% to over 30,000% in major urban areas. Large uncertainties exist in both supply and demand calculations but while the supply trend varies in sign demand continues to rise. Scenarios modeling the impact of per capita consumption, population growth, and technology suggest that NPP demand as percent of supply is likely to increase substantially in the next 40 years despite better harvesting and processing efficiencies.

Bovine meat versus pork in Toxoplasma gondii transmission in Italy: A quantitative risk assessment model.

PubMed

Belluco, Simone; Patuzzi, Ilaria; Ricci, Antonia

2018-03-23

Toxoplasma gondii is a widespread zoonotic parasite with a high seroprevalence in the human population and the ability to infect almost all warm blooded animals. Humans can acquire toxoplasmosis from different transmission routes and food plays a critical role. Within the food category, meat is of utmost importance, as it may contain bradyzoites inside tissue cysts, which can potentially cause infection after ingestion if parasites are not inactivated through freezing or cooking before consumption. In Italy, the most commonly consumed meat-producing animal species are bovines and pigs. However, T. gondii prevalence and consumption habits for meat of these animal species are very different. There is debate within the scientific community concerning which of these animal species is the main source of meat-derived human toxoplasmosis. The aim of this work was to build a quantitative risk assessment model to estimate the yearly probability of acquiring toxoplasmosis infection due to consumption of bovine meat and pork (excluding cured products) in Italy, taking into account the different eating habits. The model was fitted with data obtained from the literature regarding: bradyzoite concentrations, portion size, dose-response relation, prevalence of T. gondii in bovines and swine, meat consumption and meat preparation habits. Alternative handling scenarios were considered. The model estimated the risk per year of acquiring T. gondii infection in Italy from bovine and swine meat to be 0.034% and 0.019%, respectively. Results suggest that, due to existing eating habits, bovine meat can be a not negligible source of toxoplasmosis in Italy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Game Design and Analysis for Price-Based Demand Response: An Aggregate Game Approach.

PubMed

Ye, Maojiao; Hu, Guoqiang

2016-02-18

In this paper, an aggregate game is adopted for the modeling and analysis of energy consumption control in smart grid. Since the electricity users' cost functions depend on the aggregate energy consumption, which is unknown to the end users, an average consensus protocol is employed to estimate it. By neighboring communication among the users about their estimations on the aggregate energy consumption, Nash seeking strategies are developed. Convergence properties are explored for the proposed Nash seeking strategies. For energy consumption game that may have multiple isolated Nash equilibria, a local convergence result is derived. The convergence is established by utilizing singular perturbation analysis and Lyapunov stability analysis. Energy consumption control for a network of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems is investigated. Based on the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, it is shown that the players' actions converge to a neighborhood of the unique Nash equilibrium nonlocally. More specially, if the unique Nash equilibrium is an inner Nash equilibrium, an exponential convergence result is obtained. Energy consumption game with stubborn players is studied. In this case, the actions of the rational players can be driven to a neighborhood of their best response strategies by using the proposed method. Numerical examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Risk assessment of Salmonella in Danish meatballs produced in the catering sector.

PubMed

Møller, Cleide O de A; Nauta, Maarten J; Schaffner, Donald W; Dalgaard, Paw; Christensen, Bjarke B; Hansen, Tina B

2015-03-02

A modular process risk model approach was used to assess health risks associated with Salmonella spp. after consumption of the Danish meatball product (frikadeller) produced with fresh pork in a catering unit. Meatball production and consumption were described as a series of processes (modules), starting from 1.3kg meat pieces through conversion to 70g meatballs, followed by a dose response model to assess the risk of illness from consumption of these meatballs. Changes in bacterial prevalence, concentration, and unit size were modelled within each module. The risk assessment was built using observational data and models that were specific for Salmonella spp. in meatballs produced in the catering sector. Danish meatballs are often pan-fried followed by baking in an oven before consumption, in order to reach the core temperature of 75°C recommended by the Danish Food Safety Authority. However, in practice this terminal heat treatment in the oven may be accidentally omitted. Eleven production scenarios were evaluated with the model, to test the impact of heat treatments and cooling rates at different room temperatures. The risk estimates revealed that a process comprising heat treatment of meatballs to core temperatures higher than 70°C, and subsequent holding at room temperatures lower than 20°C, for no longer than 3.5h, were very effective in Salmonella control. The current Danish Food Safety Authority recommendation of cooking to an internal temperature of 75°C is conservative, at least with respect to Salmonella risk. Survival and growth of Salmonella during cooling of meatballs not heat treated in oven had a significant impact on the risk estimates, and therefore, cooling should be considered a critical step during meatball processing. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Estimating the cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to the European Common Agricultural Policy on dietary saturated fats.

PubMed

Lloyd-Williams, Ffion; O'Flaherty, Martin; Mwatsama, Modi; Birt, Christopher; Ireland, Robin; Capewell, Simon

2008-07-01

To estimate the burden of cardiovascular disease within 15 European Union countries (before the 2004 enlargement) as a result of excess dietary saturated fats attributable to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). A spreadsheet model was developed to synthesize data on population, diet, cholesterol levels and mortality rates. A conservative estimate of a reduction in saturated fat consumption of just 2.2 g was chosen, representing 1% of daily energy intake. The fall in serum cholesterol concentration was then calculated, assuming that this 1% reduction in saturated fat consumption was replaced with 0.5% monounsaturated and 0.5% polyunsaturated fats. The resulting reduction in cardiovascular and stroke deaths was then estimated, and a sensitivity analysis conducted. Reducing saturated fat consumption by 1% and increasing monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat by 0.5% each would lower blood cholesterol levels by approximately 0.06 mmol/l, resulting in approximately 9800 fewer coronary heart disease deaths and 3000 fewer stroke deaths each year. The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to CAP appears substantial. Furthermore, these calculations were conservative estimates, and the true mortality burden may be higher. The analysis contributes to the current wider debate concerning the relationship between CAP, health and chronic disease across Europe, together with recent international developments and commitments to reduce chronic diseases. The reported mortality estimates should be considered in relation to the current CAP and any future reforms.

By how much would limiting TV food advertising reduce childhood obesity?

PubMed Central

Van Beeck, Eduard F.; Barendregt, Jan J.; Mackenbach, Johan P.

2009-01-01

Background: There is evidence suggesting that food advertising causes childhood obesity. The strength of this effect is unclear. To inform decisions on whether to restrict advertising opportunities, we estimate how much of the childhood obesity prevalence is attributable to food advertising on television (TV). Methods: We constructed a mathematical simulation model to estimate the potential effects of reducing the exposure of 6- to 12-year-old US children to TV advertising for food on the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Model input was based on body measurements from NHANES 2003–04, the CDC-2000 cut-offs for weight categories, and literature that relates advertising to consumption levels and consumption to body mass. In an additional analysis we use a Delphi study to obtain experts’ estimates of the effect of advertising on consumption. Results: Based on literature findings, the model predicts that reducing the exposure to zero would decrease the average BMI by 0.38 kg/m−2 and lower the prevalence of obesity from 17.8 to 15.2% (95% uncertainty interval 14.8–15.6) for boys and from 15.9% to 13.5% (13.1–13.8) for girls. When estimates are based on expert opinion, these values are 11.0% (7.7–14.0) and 9.9% (7.2–12.4), respectively. Conclusion: This study suggests that from one in seven up to one in three obese children in the USA might not have been obese in the absence of advertising for unhealthy food on TV. Limiting the exposure of children to marketing of energy-dense food could be part of a broader effort to make children's diets healthier. PMID:19324935

Comparison of Vehicle-Broadcasted Fuel Consumption Rates against Precise Fuel Measurements for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Engines

DOE PAGES

Pink, Alex; Ragatz, Adam; Wang, Lijuan; ...

2017-03-28

Vehicles continuously report real-time fuel consumption estimates over their data bus, known as the controller area network (CAN). However, the accuracy of these fueling estimates is uncertain to researchers who collect these data from any given vehicle. To assess the accuracy of these estimates, CAN-reported fuel consumption data are compared against fuel measurements from precise instrumentation. The data analyzed consisted of eight medium/heavy-duty vehicles and two medium-duty engines. Varying discrepancies between CAN fueling rates and the more accurate measurements emerged but without a vehicular trend-for some vehicles the CAN under-reported fuel consumption and for others the CAN over-reported fuel consumption.more » Furthermore, a qualitative real-time analysis revealed that the operating conditions under which these fueling discrepancies arose varied among vehicles. A drive cycle analysis revealed that while CAN fueling estimate accuracy differs for individual vehicles, that CAN estimates capture the relative fuel consumption differences between drive cycles within 4% for all vehicles and even more accurately for some vehicles. Furthermore, in situations where only CAN-reported data are available, CAN fueling estimates can provide relative fuel consumption trends but not accurate or precise fuel consumption rates.« less

Comparison of Vehicle-Broadcasted Fuel Consumption Rates against Precise Fuel Measurements for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Engines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pink, Alex; Ragatz, Adam; Wang, Lijuan

Vehicles continuously report real-time fuel consumption estimates over their data bus, known as the controller area network (CAN). However, the accuracy of these fueling estimates is uncertain to researchers who collect these data from any given vehicle. To assess the accuracy of these estimates, CAN-reported fuel consumption data are compared against fuel measurements from precise instrumentation. The data analyzed consisted of eight medium/heavy-duty vehicles and two medium-duty engines. Varying discrepancies between CAN fueling rates and the more accurate measurements emerged but without a vehicular trend-for some vehicles the CAN under-reported fuel consumption and for others the CAN over-reported fuel consumption.more » Furthermore, a qualitative real-time analysis revealed that the operating conditions under which these fueling discrepancies arose varied among vehicles. A drive cycle analysis revealed that while CAN fueling estimate accuracy differs for individual vehicles, that CAN estimates capture the relative fuel consumption differences between drive cycles within 4% for all vehicles and even more accurately for some vehicles. Furthermore, in situations where only CAN-reported data are available, CAN fueling estimates can provide relative fuel consumption trends but not accurate or precise fuel consumption rates.« less

The global contribution of energy consumption by product exports from China.

PubMed

Tang, Erzi; Peng, Chong

2017-06-01

This paper presents a model to analyze the mechanism of the global contribution of energy usage by product exports. The theoretical analysis is based on the perspective that contribution estimates should be in relatively smaller sectors in which the production characteristics could be considered, such as the productivity distribution for each sector. Then, we constructed a method to measure the global contribution of energy usage. The simple method to estimate the global contribution is the percentage of goods export volume compared to the GDP as a multiple of total energy consumption, but this method underestimates the global contribution because it ignores the structure of energy consumption and product export in China. According to our measurement method and based on the theoretical analysis, we calculated the global contribution of energy consumption only by industrial manufactured product exports in a smaller sector per industry or manufacturing sector. The results indicated that approximately 42% of the total energy usage in the whole economy for China in 2013 was contributed to foreign regions. Along with the primary products and service export in China, the global contribution of energy consumption for China in 2013 by export was larger than 42% of the total energy usage.

Isotopic assessment of marine food consumption by natural-foraging chacma baboons on the Cape Peninsula, South Africa.

PubMed

Lewis, Matthew C; West, Adam G; O'Riain, M Justin

2018-01-01

Stable isotope analysis has been used to investigate consumption of marine resources in a variety of terrestrial mammals, including humans, but not yet in extant nonhuman primates. We sought to test the efficacy of stable isotope analysis as a tool for such studies by comparing isotope- and observation-based estimates of marine food consumption by a troop of noncommensal, free-ranging chacma baboons. We determined δ 13 C and δ 15 N values of baboon hair (n = 9) and fecal samples (n = 144), and principal food items (n = 362). These values were used as input for diet models, the outputs of which were compared to observation-based estimates of marine food consumption. Fecal δ 13 C values ranged from -29.3‰ to -25.6‰. δ 15 N values ranged from 0.9‰ to 6.3‰ and were positively correlated with a measure of marine foraging during the dietary integration period. Mean (± SD) δ 13 C values of adult male and female baboon hairs were -21.6‰ (± 0.1) and -21.8‰ (± 0.3) respectively, and corresponding δ 15 N values were 5.0‰ (± 0.3) and 3.9‰ (± 0.2). Models indicated that marine contributions were ≤10% of baboon diet within any season, and contributed ≤17% of dietary protein through the year. Model output and observational data were in agreement, both indicating that despite their abundance in the intertidal region, marine foods comprised only a small proportion of baboon diet. This suggests that stable isotope analysis is a viable tool for investigating marine food consumption by natural-foraging primates in temperate regions. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predicting the health impact of lowering salt consumption in Turkey using the DYNAMO health impact assessment tool.

PubMed

Erkoyun, E; Sözmen, K; Bennett, K; Unal, B; Boshuizen, H C

2016-11-01

To estimate the impact of three daily salt consumption scenarios on the prevalence and incidence of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease in 2025 in the Turkish population aged ≥30 years using the DYNAMO Health Impact Assessment tool. Statistical disease modelling study. DYNAMO health impact assessment was populated using data from Turkey to estimate the prevalence and incidence of IHD and cerebrovascular disease in 2025. TurkSTAT data were used for demographic data, and national surveys were used for salt consumption and disease-specific burden. Three salt consumption scenarios were modelled: (1) reference scenario: mean salt consumption stays the same from 2012-2013 until 2025; (2) gradual decline: daily salt intake reduces steadily by 0.47 g per year by lowering salt intake from bread by 50% and from table salt by 40% by 2025; and (3) World Health Organization (WHO) advice: daily salt intake of 5 g per day from 2013 until 2025. The gradual decline scenario would lead to a decrease in the prevalence of IHD and cerebrovascular disease by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, and a decrease in the incidence by 0.6 and 0.4 per 1000, respectively. Following WHO's advice would lead to a decrease in the prevalence of IHD and cerebrovascular disease by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively, and a decrease in the incidence by 1.0 and 0.7 per 1000, respectively. This model indicates that Turkey can lower its future cardiovascular disease burden by following the gradual decline scenario. Following WHO's advice would achieve an even greater benefit. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding consumption-related sucralose emissions - A conceptual approach combining substance-flow analysis with sampling analysis.

PubMed

Neset, Tina-Simone Schmid; Singer, Heinz; Longrée, Philipp; Bader, Hans-Peter; Scheidegger, Ruth; Wittmer, Anita; Andersson, Jafet Clas Martin

2010-07-15

This paper explores the potential of combining substance-flow modelling with water and wastewater sampling to trace consumption-related substances emitted through the urban wastewater. The method is exemplified on sucralose. Sucralose is a chemical sweetener that is 600 times sweeter than sucrose and has been on the European market since 2004. As a food additive, sucralose has recently increased in usage in a number of foods, such as soft drinks, dairy products, candy and several dietary products. In a field campaign, sucralose concentrations were measured in the inflow and outflow of the local wastewater treatment plant in Linköping, Sweden, as well as upstream and downstream of the receiving stream and in Lake Roxen. This allows the loads emitted from the city to be estimated. A method consisting of solid-phase extraction followed by liquid chromatography and high resolution mass spectrometry was used to quantify the sucralose in the collected surface and wastewater samples. To identify and quantify the sucralose sources, a consumption analysis of households including small business enterprises was conducted as well as an estimation of the emissions from the local food industry. The application of a simple model including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis indicates that at present not one large source but rather several small sources contribute to the load coming from households, small business enterprises and industry. This is in contrast to the consumption pattern seen two years earlier, which was dominated by one product. The inflow to the wastewater treatment plant decreased significantly from other measurements made two years earlier. The study shows that the combination of substance-flow modelling with the analysis of the loads to the receiving waters helps us to understand consumption-related emissions. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Intake of sugar-sweetened non-alcoholic beverages and body mass index: A national sample of Chilean school children].

PubMed

Araneda, Jacqueline; Bustos, Patricia; Cerecera, Francisco; Amigo, Hugo

2015-01-01

To estimate the association between the intake of sugar-sweetened non-alcoholic beverages and body mass index (BMI) in Chilean school children. Food consumption frequency data were analyzed for school children aged 6 to 18. The association between consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and BMI was estimated by multivariate lineal regression models. Sugar-sweetened beverages are consumed on a daily basis by 92% (95%CI:90-94) of subjects with daily intake medians of 424 mL (p25-p75:212-707). Every extra daily portion of sugar-sweetened beverages consumed by school children aged 6 to 13 is associated with 0.13 BMI z-scores (95%CI:0.04-0.2;p=0.01). School children consume sugar-sweetened beverages daily with intake medians close to 0.5L. There is an association between sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and higher BMI in Chilean school children.

Trophic interactions and consumption rates of subyearling Chinook Salmon and nonnative juvenile American Shad in Columbia River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haskell, Craig A.; Beauchamp, David A.; Bollins, Stephen M

2017-01-01

We used a large lampara seine coupled with nonlethal gastric lavage to examine the diets and estimate consumption rates of subyearling Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha during July and August 2013. During August we also examined the diet and consumption rates of juvenile American Shad Alosa sapidissima, a potential competitor of subyearling Chinook Salmon. Subyearling Chinook Salmon consumed Daphnia in July but switched to feeding on smaller juvenile American Shad in August. We captured no juvenile American Shad in July, but in August juvenile American Shad consumed cyclopoid and calanoid copepods. Stomach evacuation rates for subyearling Chinook Salmon were high during both sample periods (0.58 h−1 in July, 0.51 h−1 in August), and daily ration estimates were slightly higher than values reported in the literature for other subyearlings. By switching from planktivory to piscivory, subyearling Chinook Salmon gained greater growth opportunity. While past studies have shown that juvenile American Shad reduce zooplankton availability for Chinook Salmon subyearlings, our work indicates that they also become important prey after Daphnia abundance declines. The diet and consumption data here can be used in future bioenergetics modeling to estimate the growth of subyearling Chinook Salmon in lower Columbia River reservoirs.

Nonintrusive Load Monitoring Based on Advanced Deep Learning and Novel Signature.

PubMed

Kim, Jihyun; Le, Thi-Thu-Huong; Kim, Howon

2017-01-01

Monitoring electricity consumption in the home is an important way to help reduce energy usage. Nonintrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is existing technique which helps us monitor electricity consumption effectively and costly. NILM is a promising approach to obtain estimates of the electrical power consumption of individual appliances from aggregate measurements of voltage and/or current in the distribution system. Among the previous studies, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based models have been studied very much. However, increasing appliances, multistate of appliances, and similar power consumption of appliances are three big issues in NILM recently. In this paper, we address these problems through providing our contributions as follows. First, we proposed state-of-the-art energy disaggregation based on Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM-RNN) model and additional advanced deep learning. Second, we proposed a novel signature to improve classification performance of the proposed model in multistate appliance case. We applied the proposed model on two datasets such as UK-DALE and REDD. Via our experimental results, we have confirmed that our model outperforms the advanced model. Thus, we show that our combination between advanced deep learning and novel signature can be a robust solution to overcome NILM's issues and improve the performance of load identification.

Nonintrusive Load Monitoring Based on Advanced Deep Learning and Novel Signature

PubMed Central

Le, Thi-Thu-Huong; Kim, Howon

2017-01-01

Monitoring electricity consumption in the home is an important way to help reduce energy usage. Nonintrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is existing technique which helps us monitor electricity consumption effectively and costly. NILM is a promising approach to obtain estimates of the electrical power consumption of individual appliances from aggregate measurements of voltage and/or current in the distribution system. Among the previous studies, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based models have been studied very much. However, increasing appliances, multistate of appliances, and similar power consumption of appliances are three big issues in NILM recently. In this paper, we address these problems through providing our contributions as follows. First, we proposed state-of-the-art energy disaggregation based on Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM-RNN) model and additional advanced deep learning. Second, we proposed a novel signature to improve classification performance of the proposed model in multistate appliance case. We applied the proposed model on two datasets such as UK-DALE and REDD. Via our experimental results, we have confirmed that our model outperforms the advanced model. Thus, we show that our combination between advanced deep learning and novel signature can be a robust solution to overcome NILM's issues and improve the performance of load identification. PMID:29118809

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT): Version 2d: Installation Guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-09-01

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) is a software system that models aircraft performance in space and time to estimate fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and air quality consequences. AEDT facilitates environmental review activities required ...

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m 2 ofmore » suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft 2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.« less

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

DOE PAGES

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer; ...

2018-01-05

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m 2 ofmore » suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft 2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.« less

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer; Phillips, Caleb; Elmore, Ryan

2018-02-01

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m2 of suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.

Consumption of Whole-Grain Bread and Risk of Colorectal Cancer among Norwegian Women (the NOWAC Study)

PubMed Central

Bakken, Toril; Braaten, Tonje; Olsen, Anja; Kyrø, Cecilie; Lund, Eiliv; Skeie, Guri

2016-01-01

There is evidence that consumption of foods containing dietary fiber decreases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Whole grains contain dietary fiber, as well as a range of micronutrients and bioactive compounds, but the association between the consumption of whole grains and the risk of CRC remains less studied. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between whole-grain bread consumption and CRC incidence among Norwegian women, using data from a prospective cohort study (the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study). Dietary intake was estimated from the food-frequency questionnaires of 78,254 women in the cohort (median age: 55 years), and these women were then followed up for CRC incidence. During the 9 years of median follow-up, 795 women were diagnosed with CRC (316 proximal, 193 distal, 218 rectal). Associations between whole-grain bread consumption and the risk of CRC (including colorectal subsites) were investigated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. When compared to the low consumption group, the hazard ratio for CRC was 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72–1.09) for the high consumption group and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.72–1.02) for the medium consumption group in a multivariable model. Overall, no association between whole-grain bread consumption and CRC was found. PMID:26771634

[Trends of tobacco demand in Mexico: 1992-1998].

PubMed

Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Campuzano-Rincón, Julio César; Carreón-Rodríguez, Víctor Gerardo; Knaul, Felicia; López-Antuñano, Francisco Javier; Hernández-Avila, Mauricio

2002-01-01

This paper aims at describing the behavior of tobacco's demand in Mexico across four one-year periods: 1992, 1994, 1996, and 1998, as well as to estimate a cigarette demand function. A cross-sectional study with longitudinal analysis was conducted. Information sources were the Encuesta Nacional de Ingreso y Gasto de los Hogares (ENIGH) (National Survey of Household Income and Spending) (NHSIS) and the tobacco pack prices reported by the Procuraduría Federal del Consumidor (Profeco) (Federal Office of Consumer's Protection) (FOCP). Spending, income, and prices were deflated to 1994 prices; the population was stratified into quintiles of real income, by rural and urban areas. Indicators of daily consumption of cigarettes and packs were constructed and prices per pack calculated. Adjusted prevalence figures were estimated. Logistic and linear regression models were used for statistical inference; a cigarette demand function was estimated using multivariate logistic regression, to find socioeconomic determinants of cigarette consumption. The adjusted prevalence of household tobacco spending fell from 22.4 to 9.9% between 1992 and 1998. Households allocated more than 4% of their income to tobacco consumption. A trend between income level and cigarette spending was observed, with the first quintile (the poorest population) allocated a greater share of their income than higher quintiles. The average daily consumption of cigarettes increased from 7.5 to 9.8 between 1992 and 1998. It was estimated that 90% of "smoker homes" consumed up to one package per day. The proportion of non-filter cigarettes increased from 0.4 to 4.8% between 1992-1998, with a bigger increase in 1996. Finally, it was found that the most important determinants of spending were prices and income. Policies focusing on tobacco prices would help to reduce tobacco consumption and improve the health of the Mexican population.

Estimated anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the land surface of the conterminous United States--1992, 1997, and 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sprague, Lori A.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus to each county in the conterminous United States and to the watersheds of 495 surface-water sites studied as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program were quantified for the years 1992, 1997, and 2002. Estimates of inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus from biological fixation by crops (for nitrogen only), human consumption, crop production for human consumption, animal production for human consumption, animal consumption, and crop production for animal consumption for each county are provided in a tabular dataset. These county-level estimates were allocated to the watersheds of the surface-water sites to estimate watershed-level inputs from the same sources; these estimates also are provided in a tabular dataset, together with calculated estimates of net import of food and net import of feed and previously published estimates of inputs from atmospheric deposition, fertilizer, and recoverable manure. The previously published inputs are provided for each watershed so that final estimates of total anthropogenic nutrient inputs could be calculated. Estimates of total anthropogenic inputs are presented together with previously published estimates of riverine loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus for reference.

Using multi-level data to estimate the effect of an 'alcogenic' environment on hazardous alcohol consumption in the former Soviet Union.

PubMed

Murphy, Adrianna; Roberts, Bayard; Ploubidis, George B; Stickley, Andrew; McKee, Martin

2014-05-01

The purpose of this study was to assess whether alcohol-related community characteristics act collectively to influence individual-level alcohol consumption in the former Soviet Union (fSU). Using multi-level data from nine countries in the fSU we conducted a factor analysis of seven alcohol-related community characteristics. The association between any latent factors underlying these characteristics and two measures of hazardous alcohol consumption was then analysed using a population average regression modelling approach. Our factor analysis produced one factor with an eigenvalue >1 (EV=1.28), which explained 94% of the variance. This factor was statistically significantly associated with increased odds of CAGE problem drinking (OR=1.40 (1.08-1.82)). The estimated association with EHD was not statistically significant (OR=1.10 (0.85-1.44)). Our findings suggest that a high number of beer, wine and spirit advertisements and high alcohol outlet density may work together to create an 'alcogenic' environment that encourages hazardous alcohol consumption in the fSU. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of a rise in cigarette price on cigarette consumption, tobacco taxation revenues, and of smoking-related deaths in 28 EU countries-- applying threshold regression modelling.

PubMed

Yeh, Chun-Yuan; Schafferer, Christian; Lee, Jie-Min; Ho, Li-Ming; Hsieh, Chi-Jung

2017-09-21

European Union public healthcare expenditure on treating smoking and attributable diseases is estimated at over €25bn annually. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies of the EU. This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and smoking-caused deaths in 28 EU countries. Employing panel data for the years 2005 to 2014 from Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we used income as a threshold variable and applied threshold regression modelling to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations. The results showed that there was an income threshold effect on cigarette prices in the 28 EU countries that had a gross national income (GNI) per capita lower than US$5418, with a maximum cigarette price elasticity of -1.227. The results of the simulated analysis showed that a rise of 10% in cigarette price would significantly reduce cigarette consumption as well the total death toll caused by smoking in all the observed countries, but would be most effective in Bulgaria and Romania, followed by Latvia and Poland. Additionally, an increase in the number of MPOWER tobacco control policies at the highest level of achievment would help reduce cigarette consumption. It is recommended that all EU countries levy higher tobacco taxes to increase cigarette prices, and thus in effect reduce cigarette consumption. The subsequent increase in tobacco tax revenues would be instrumental in covering expenditures related to tobacco prevention and control programs.

Estimated Global, Regional, and National Disease Burdens Related to Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption in 2010.

PubMed

Singh, Gitanjali M; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lim, Stephen; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2015-08-25

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are consumed globally and contribute to adiposity. However, the worldwide impact of SSBs on burdens of adiposity-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancers, and diabetes mellitus has not been assessed by nation, age, and sex. We modeled global, regional, and national burdens of disease associated with SSB consumption by age/sex in 2010. Data on SSB consumption levels were pooled from national dietary surveys worldwide. The effects of SSB intake on body mass index and diabetes mellitus, and of elevated body mass index on CVD, diabetes mellitus, and cancers were derived from large prospective cohort pooling studies. Disease-specific mortality/morbidity data were obtained from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We computed cause-specific population-attributable fractions for SSB consumption, which were multiplied by cause-specific mortality/morbidity to compute estimates of SSB-attributable death/disability. Analyses were done by country/age/sex; uncertainties of all input data were propagated into final estimates. Worldwide, the model estimated 184 000 (95% uncertainty interval, 161 000-208 000) deaths/y attributable to SSB consumption: 133 000 (126 000-139 000) from diabetes mellitus, 45 000 (26 000-61 000) from CVD, and 6450 (4300-8600) from cancers. Five percent of SSB-related deaths occurred in low-income, 70.9% in middle-income, and 24.1% in high-income countries. Proportional mortality attributable to SSBs ranged from <1% in Japanese >65 years if age to 30% in Mexicans <45 years of age. Among the 20 most populous countries, Mexico had largest absolute (405 deaths/million adults) and proportional (12.1%) deaths from SSBs. A total of 8.5 (2.8, 19.2) million disability-adjusted life years were related to SSB intake (4.5% of diabetes mellitus-related disability-adjusted life years). SSBs are a single, modifiable component of diet that can impact preventable death/disability in adults in high-, middle-, and low-income countries, indicating an urgent need for strong global prevention programs. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Photochemically consumed hydrocarbons and their relationship with ozone formation in two megacities of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, C.; Wang, J.; Liu, S.; Shao, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhu, T.; Shiu, C.; Lai, C.

2010-12-01

Two on-site continuous measurements of ozone and its precursors in two megacities of China were carried out in an urban site of Beijing and a suburban site near Guangzhou in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) to estimate precursor consumption and to assess its relationship with oxidant (O3+NO2) formation level. An observation-based method (OBM) with the precursor consumption concept was adopted to assess the relationship between oxidant production and amounts of photochemically consumed non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). In this approach, the ratio of ethylbenzene to m,p-xylenes was used to estimate the degree of photochemical processing, as well as the amounts of photochemically consumed NMHCs by reacting with OH. By trying to correlate the observed oxidant with the observed NMHC concentration, the two areas both revealed nearly no to low correlation between them. However, it existed fair to good correlations (R2=0.68 for Beijing, 0.53 for PRD) between the observed oxidant level and the degree of photochemical processing (ethylbenzene/m,p-xylenes). Furthermore, after taking the approach of consumption to estimate the consumed amounts of NMHCs, an interesting finding reveals that the definite correlation existed between the observed oxidant level and the total consumed NMHCs. The good correlations (R2=0.83 for Beijing, 0.81 for PRD) implies that the ambient oxidant level correlated to the amount of consumed NMHCs. The results of the two megacities in China by using the OBM with the precursor consumption concept can provide another pathway to explore the relationship between photochemically produced oxidant and consumed precursors, and will be helpful to validate model results and to reduce uncertainty of model predictions. However, the method has some room for uncertainty, as injection of fresh precursor emissions and additional boundary ozone involved, etc. could affect the estimation of consumed NMHCs and observed oxidant levels. Assistance of approaches in assessing the influence of the interfering factors would be helpful to acquire more reliable inferences of relationship between oxidant formation and precursor consumption.

Price Elasticity of Alcohol Demand in India.

PubMed

Kumar, Santosh

2017-05-01

Using a household survey conducted in 2014, this study estimates price elasticity of demand (PED) for beer, country liquor and spirits in India. Ordinary least-square models were used to estimate the responsiveness in alcohol demand due to price change. A large number of control variables were included to adjust for potential confounding in the model. Inter-district variation in alcohol consumption is adjusted for by including district fixed effects. Alcohol prices are negatively associated with demand for alcoholic beverages. The PED ranged from -0.14 for spirits to -0.46 for country liquor. Low level of education was positively associated with spirits consumption. The magnitude of elasticity varied by rural-urban, education and gender. Results indicate that a policy mix of price controls and awareness campaigns would be most effective in tackling the adverse effects of harmful drinking in India. The demand for beer, country liquor and spirits is negatively associated with its own price. The elasticity estimates ranged from -0.14 for spirits to -0.44 for country liquor. The elasticity estimates varied by rural-urban, gender and by education levels of the drinkers. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

Development of a bioenergetics model for the threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hovel, Rachel A.; Beauchamp, David A.; Hansen, Adam G.; Sorel, Mark H.

2016-01-01

The Threespine Stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus is widely distributed across northern hemisphere ecosystems, has ecological influence as an abundant planktivore, and is commonly used as a model organism, but the species lacks a comprehensive model to describe bioenergetic performance in response to varying environmental or ecological conditions. This study parameterized a bioenergetics model for the Threespine Stickleback using laboratory measurements to determine mass- and temperature-dependent functions for maximum consumption and routine respiration costs. Maximum consumption experiments were conducted across a range of temperatures from 7.5°C to 23.0°C and a range of fish weights from 0.5 to 4.5 g. Respiration experiments were conducted across a range of temperatures from 8°C to 28°C. Model sensitivity was consistent with other comparable models in that the mass-dependent parameters for maximum consumption were the most sensitive. Growth estimates based on the Threespine Stickleback bioenergetics model suggested that 22°C is the optimal temperature for growth when food is not limiting. The bioenergetics model performed well when used to predict independent, paired measures of consumption and growth observed from a separate wild population of Threespine Sticklebacks. Predicted values for consumption and growth (expressed as percent body weight per day) only deviated from observed values by 2.0%. Our model should provide insight into the physiological performance of this species across a range of environmental conditions and be useful for quantifying the trophic impact of this species in food webs containing other ecologically or economically important species.

Simulation and analysis of three congested weigh stations using Westa

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

A user-friendly model for personal computers, "Vehicle/Highway Performance Predictor," was developed to estimate fuel consumption and exhaust emissions related to modes of vehicle operations on highways of various configurations and traffic controls ...

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT): Version 2b: Installation Guide : [December 2015

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-12-01

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) is a software system that models aircraft performance in space and time to estimate fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and air quality consequences. AEDT facilitates environmental review activities required ...

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT): Version 2b: Installation Guide : [June 2016

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) is a software system that models aircraft performance in space and time to estimate fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and air quality consequences. AEDT facilitates environmental review activities required ...

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT): Version 2b: Installation Guide : [July 2015

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-07-01

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) is a software system that models aircraft performance in space and time to estimate fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and air quality consequences. AEDT facilitates environmental review activities required ...

10 CFR 431.205 - Units to be tested.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... to ensure that— (a) Any represented value of estimated input power demand or other measure of energy consumption of a basic model for which consumers would favor lower values shall be no less than the higher of...

The Intergenerational Transmission of Generosity

PubMed Central

Wilhelm, Mark O.; Brown, Eleanor; Rooney, Patrick M.; Steinberg, Richard

2008-01-01

This paper estimates the correlation between the generosity of parents and the generosity of their adult children using regression models of adult children’s charitable giving. New charitable giving data are collected in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and used to estimate the regression models. The regression models are estimated using a wide variety of techniques and specification tests, and the strength of the intergenerational giving correlations are compared with intergenerational correlations in income, wealth, and consumption expenditure from the same sample using the same set of controls. We find the religious giving of parents and children to be strongly correlated, as strongly correlated as are their income and wealth. The correlation in the secular giving (e.g., giving to the United Way, educational institutions, for poverty relief) of parents and children is smaller, similar in magnitude to the intergenerational correlation in consumption. Parents’ religious giving is positively associated with children’s secular giving, but in a more limited sense. Overall, the results are consistent with generosity emerging at least in part from the influence of parental charitable behavior. In contrast to intergenerational models in which parental generosity towards their children can undo government transfer policy (Ricardian equivalence), these results suggest that parental generosity towards charitable organizations might reinforce government policies, such as tax incentives aimed at encouraging voluntary transfers. PMID:19802345

Estimation of oxygen consumption during cycling and rowing.

PubMed

Baig, Dur-e-Zehra; Savkin, Andrey V; Celler, Branko G

2012-01-01

The aim of this paper is to develop estimator that can predict oxygen consumption (V(O2)) during cycling and rowing exercises, by using non-invasive and easily measurable quantities such as heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RespR) and frequency of exercising activity. The frequency of exercise is quantified as a universal measure of exercise intensity and is known as Exercise Rate (ER). This ER is responsible for deviation in V(O2) (ΔV(O2)), HR (ΔHR), and RespR (ΔRespR) from their respective baseline measurements during exercise. Therefore, ΔV(O2) can be estimated from Δ, ΔRespR and ER. The resting measured of V(O2) is referred as V(O(2rest)); this is computed from the physical fitness of an individual. The Hammerstein model is adopted for the estimation of ΔV(O2). Results in this study demonstrate that the developed estimators for each type of exercise are capable of estimating V(O2) by adding up V(O(2rest)) and ΔV(O2) at various intensities during cycling and rowing.

Assessing the role of access and price on the consumption of fruits and vegetables across New York City using agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Zhang, Donglan; Thapa, Janani R; Madondo, Kumbirai; Yi, Stella; Fisher, Elisa; Griffin, Kerry; Liu, Bian; Wang, Youfa; Pagán, José A

2018-01-01

Most residents in New York City (NYC) do not consume sufficient fruits and vegetables every day. Difficulties with access and high prices of fruits and vegetables in some neighborhoods contribute to different consumption patterns across NYC neighborhoods. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to predict dietary behaviors of individuals at the borough and neighborhood levels. Model parameters were estimated from the 2014 NYC Community Health Survey, United States Census data, and the literature. We simulated six hypothetical interventions designed to improve access and reduce the price of fruits and vegetables. We found that all interventions would lead to increases in fruit and vegetable consumption but the results vary substantially across boroughs and neighborhoods. For example, a 10% increase in the number of fruit/vegetable vendors combined with a 10% decrease in the prices of fruits and vegetables would lead to a median increase of 2.28% (range: 0.65%-4.92%) in the consumption of fruits and vegetables, depending on neighborhood. We also found that the impact of increasing the number of vendors on fruit/vegetable consumption is more pronounced in unhealthier local food environments while the impact of reducing prices on fruits/vegetable consumption is more pronounced in neighborhoods with low levels of education. An agent-based model of dietary behaviors that takes into account neighborhood context has the potential to inform how fruit/vegetable access and pricing strategies may specifically work in tandem to increase the consumption of fruits and vegetables at the local level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karstensen, J.; Peters, G. P.; Andrew, R. M.

2014-09-01

Several studies have connected emissions of greenhouse gases to economic and trade data to quantify the causal chain from consumption to emissions and climate change. These studies usually combine data and models originating from different sources, making it difficult to estimate uncertainties in the end results. We estimate uncertainties in economic data, multi-pollutant emission statistics and metric parameters, and use Monte Carlo analysis to quantify contributions to uncertainty and to determine how uncertainty propagates to estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions for the year 2007. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants included, the metric and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are largely dominated by the climate sensitivity and the parameters associated with the warming effects of CO2. The economic data have a relatively small impact on uncertainty at the global and national level, while much higher uncertainties are found at the sectoral level. Our results suggest that consumption-based national emissions are not significantly more uncertain than the corresponding production based emissions, since the largest uncertainties are due to metric and emissions which affect both perspectives equally. The two perspectives exhibit different sectoral uncertainties, due to changes of pollutant compositions. We find global sectoral consumption uncertainties in the range of ±9-±27% using the global temperature potential with a 50 year time horizon, with metric uncertainties dominating. National level uncertainties are similar in both perspectives due to the dominance of CO2 over other pollutants. The consumption emissions of the top 10 emitting regions have a broad uncertainty range of ±9-±25%, with metric and emissions uncertainties contributing similarly. The Absolute global temperature potential with a 50 year time horizon has much higher uncertainties, with considerable uncertainty overlap for regions and sectors, indicating that the ranking of countries is uncertain.

Modeling nonlinear responses of DOC transport in boreal catchments in Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasurinen, Ville; Alfredsen, Knut; Ojala, Anne; Pumpanen, Jukka; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Futter, Martyn N.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Berninger, Frank

2016-07-01

Stream water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations display high spatial and temporal variation in boreal catchments. Understanding and predicting these patterns is a challenge with great implications for water quality projections and carbon balance estimates. Although several biogeochemical models have been used to estimate stream water DOC dynamics, model biases common during both rain and snow melt-driven events. The parsimonious DOC-model, K-DOC, with 10 calibrated parameters, uses a nonlinear discharge and catchment water storage relationship including soil temperature dependencies of DOC release and consumption. K-DOC was used to estimate the stream water DOC concentrations over 5 years for eighteen nested boreal catchments having total area of 68 km2 (varying from 0.04 to 67.9 km2). The model successfully simulated DOC concentrations during base flow conditions, as well as, hydrological events in catchments dominated by organic and mineral soils reaching NSEs from 0.46 to 0.76. Our semimechanistic model was parsimonious enough to have all parameters estimated using statistical methods. We did not find any clear differences between forest and mire-dominated catchments that could be explained by soil type or tree species composition. However, parameters controlling slow release and consumption of DOC from soil water behaved differently for small headwater catchments (less than 2 km2) than for those that integrate larger areas of different ecosystem types (10-68 km2). Our results emphasize that it is important to account for nonlinear dependencies of both, soil temperature, and catchment water storage, when simulating DOC dynamics of boreal catchments.

Do foreign direct investment and renewable energy consumption affect the CO2 emissions? New evidence from a panel ARDL approach to Kyoto Annex countries.

PubMed

Mert, Mehmet; Bölük, Gülden

2016-11-01

This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the potential of renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in 21 Kyoto countries using an unbalanced panel data. For this purpose, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis was tested using panel cointegration analysis. Panel causality tests show that there are significant long-run causalities from the variables to carbon emissions, renewable energy consumption, fossil fuel energy consumption and inflow foreign direct investments. The results of our model support the pollution haloes hypothesis which states that FDI brings in clean technology and improves the environmental standards. However, an inverted U-shaped relationship (EKC) was not supported by the estimated model for the 21 Kyoto countries. This means that economic growth cannot ensure environmental protection itself or environmental goals cannot await economic growth. Another important finding is that renewable energy consumption decreases carbon emissions. Based on the empirical results, some important policy implications emerge. Kyoto countries should stimulate the FDI inflows and usage of renewable energy consumption to mitigate the air pollution and meet the emission targets. This paper provides new insights into environment and energy policies through FDI inclusion.

Fuel consumption impacts of auto roof racks

DOE PAGES

Chen, Yuche; Meier, Alan

2016-03-23

The after-market roof rack is one of the most common components attached to a vehicle for carrying over-sized items, such as bicycles and skis. It is important to understand these racks' fuel consumption impacts on both individual vehicles and the national fleet because they are widely used. We estimate the national fuel consumption impacts of roof racks using a bottom-up approach. Our model incorporates real-world data and vehicle stock information to enable assessing fuel consumption impacts for several categories of vehicles, rack configurations, and usage conditions. In addition, the model draws on two new data-gathering techniques, on-line forums and crowd-sourcing.more » The results show that nationwide, roof racks are responsible for 0.8‰ of light duty vehicle fuel consumption in 2015, corresponding to 100 million gallons of gasoline per year. Sensitivity analyses show that results are most sensitive to the fraction of vehicles with installed roof racks but carrying no equipment. Here, the aerodynamic efficiency of typical roof racks can be greatly improved and reduce individual vehicle fuel consumption; however, government policies to minimize extensive driving with empty racks--if successful--could save more fuel nationally.« less

Assessing actual evapotranspiration via surface energy balance aiming to optimize water and energy consumption in large scale pressurized irrigation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awada, H.; Ciraolo, G.; Maltese, A.; Moreno Hidalgo, M. A.; Provenzano, G.; Còrcoles, J. I.

2017-10-01

Satellite imagery provides a dependable basis for computational models that aimed to determine actual evapotranspiration (ET) by surface energy balance. Satellite-based models enables quantifying ET over large areas for a wide range of applications, such as monitoring water distribution, managing irrigation and assessing irrigation systems' performance. With the aim to evaluate the energy and water consumption of a large scale on-turn pressurized irrigation system in the district of Aguas Nuevas, Albacete, Spain, the satellite-based image-processing model SEBAL was used for calculating actual ET. The model has been applied to quantify instantaneous, daily, and seasonal actual ET over high- resolution Landsat images for the peak water demand season (May to September) and for the years 2006 - 2008. The model provided a direct estimation of the distribution of main energy fluxes, at the instant when the satellite overpassed over each field of the district. The image acquisition day Evapotranspiration (ET24) was obtained from instantaneous values by assuming a constant evaporative fraction (Λ) for the entire day of acquisition; then, monthly and seasonal ET were estimated from the daily evapotranspiration (ETdaily) assuming that ET24 varies in proportion to reference ET (ETr) at the meteorological station, thus accounting for day to day variation in meteorological forcing. The comparison between the hydrants water consumption and the actual evapotranspiration, considering an irrigation efficiency of 85%, showed that a considerable amount of water and energy can be saved at district level.

Energy consumption analysis of graphene based all spin logic device with voltage controlled magnetic anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhizhong; Zhang, Yue; Zheng, Zhenyi; Wang, Guanda; Su, Li; Zhang, Youguang; Zhao, Weisheng

2017-05-01

All spin logic device (ASLD) is a promising option to realize the ultra-low power computing systems. However, the low spin transport efficiency and the non-local switching of the detector have become two key challenges of the ASLD. In this paper, we analyze the energy consumption of a graphene based ASLD with the ferromagnetic layer switching assistance by voltage control magnetic anisotropy (VCMA) effect. This structure has significant potential towards ultra-low power consumption: the applied voltage can not only shorten switching time of the ferromagnetic layer, but also decreases the critical injection current; the graphene channel enhances greatly the spin transport efficiency. By applying the approximate circuit model, the impact of material configurations, interfaces and geometry can be synthetically studied. An accurate physic model was also developed, based on which, we carry out the micro-magnetic simulations to analyze the magnetization dynamics. Combining these electrical and magnetic investigations, the energy consumption of the proposed ASLD can be estimated. With the optimizing parameters, the energy consumption can be reduced to 2.5 pJ for a logic operation.

Diffusion and Monod kinetics model to determine in vivo human corneal oxygen-consumption rate during soft contact lens wear

PubMed Central

Del Castillo, Luis F.; da Silva, Ana R. Ferreira; Hernández, Saul I.; Aguilella, M.; Andrio, Andreu; Mollá, Sergio; Compañ, Vicente

2014-01-01

Purpose We present an analysis of the corneal oxygen consumption Qc from non-linear models, using data of oxygen partial pressure or tension (pO2) obtained from in vivo estimation previously reported by other authors.1 Methods Assuming that the cornea is a single homogeneous layer, the oxygen permeability through the cornea will be the same regardless of the type of lens that is available on it. The obtention of the real value of the maximum oxygen consumption rate Qc,max is very important because this parameter is directly related with the gradient pressure profile into the cornea and moreover, the real corneal oxygen consumption is influenced by both anterior and posterior oxygen fluxes. Results Our calculations give different values for the maximum oxygen consumption rate Qc,max, when different oxygen pressure values (high and low pO2) are considered at the interface cornea-tears film. Conclusion Present results are relevant for the calculation on the partial pressure of oxygen, available at different depths into the corneal tissue behind contact lenses of different oxygen transmissibility. PMID:25649636

Simulating the potential effects of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on the energy budget and tax revenues for Onondaga County, New York

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balogh, Stephen B.

My objectives were to predict the energetic effects of a large increase in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and their implications on fuel tax collections in Onondaga County. I examined two alternative taxation policies. To do so, I built a model of county energy consumption based on prorated state-level energy consumption data and census data. I used two scenarios to estimate energy consumption trends over the next 30 years and the effects of PHEV on energy use and fuel tax revenues. I found that PHEV can reduce county gasoline consumption, but they would curtail fuel tax revenues and increase residential electricity demand. A one-cent per VMT tax on PHEV users provides insufficient revenue to replace reduced fuel tax collection. A sales tax on electricity consumption generates sufficient replacement revenue at low PHEV market shares. However, at higher shares, the tax on electricity use would exceed the current county tax rate. Keywords: electricity, energy, gasoline, New York State, Onondaga County, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, transportation model, tax policy

78 FR 71731 - 2014 Standards for the Renewable Fuel Standard Program

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-29

... of E85 Consumption c. Proposed Projection of E85 Consumption in 2014 d. Estimating Total Ethanol Consumption in 2014 2. Estimating Availability of Non-Ethanol Renewable Fuel Volumes a. Non-Ethanol Cellulosic... Biofuel c. Option 3: Availability, Growth, and Limits on Ethanol Consumption D. Summary of Proposed Volume...

Anchoring and Estimation of Alcohol Consumption: Implications for Social Norm Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lombardi, Megan M.; Choplin, Jessica M.

2010-01-01

Three experiments investigated the impact of anchors on students' estimates of personal alcohol consumption to better understand the role that this form of bias might have in social norm intervention programs. Experiments I and II found that estimates of consumption were susceptible to anchoring effects when an open-answer and a scale-response…

Fate of organic microcontaminants in wastewater treatment and river systems: An uncertainty assessment in view of sampling strategy, and compound consumption rate and degradability.

PubMed

Aymerich, I; Acuña, V; Ort, C; Rodríguez-Roda, I; Corominas, Ll

2017-11-15

The growing awareness of the relevance of organic microcontaminants on the environment has led to a growing number of studies on attenuation of these compounds in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and rivers. However, the effects of the sampling strategies (frequency and duration of composite samples) on the attenuation estimates are largely unknown. Our goal was to assess how frequency and duration of composite samples influence uncertainty of the attenuation estimates in WWTPs and rivers. Furthermore, we also assessed how compound consumption rate and degradability influence uncertainty. The assessment was conducted through simulating the integrated wastewater system of Puigcerdà (NE Iberian Peninsula) using a sewer pattern generator and a coupled model of WWTP and river. Results showed that the sampling strategy is especially critical at the influent of WWTP, particularly when the number of toilet flushes containing the compound of interest is small (≤100 toilet flushes with compound day -1 ), and less critical at the effluent of the WWTP and in the river due to the mixing effects of the WWTP. For example, at the WWTP, when evaluating a compound that is present in 50 pulses·d -1 using a sampling frequency of 15-min to collect a 24-h composite sample, the attenuation uncertainty can range from 94% (0% degradability) to 9% (90% degradability). The estimation of attenuation in rivers is less critical than in WWTPs, as the attenuation uncertainty was lower than 10% for all evaluated scenarios. Interestingly, the errors in the estimates of attenuation are usually lower than those of loads for most sampling strategies and compound characteristics (e.g. consumption and degradability), although the opposite occurs for compounds with low consumption and inappropriate sampling strategies at the WWTP. Hence, when designing a sampling campaign, one should consider the influence of compounds' consumption and degradability as well as the desired level of accuracy in attenuation estimations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of flexible fuel vehicle and life-cycle fuel consumption and emissions of selected pollutants and greenhouse gases for ethanol 85 versus gasoline.

PubMed

Zhai, Haibo; Frey, H Christopher; Rouphail, Nagui M; Gonçalves, Gonçalo A; Farias, Tiago L

2009-08-01

The objective of this research is to evaluate differences in fuel consumption and tailpipe emissions of flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs) operated on ethanol 85 (E85) versus gasoline. Theoretical ratios of fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for both fuels are estimated based on the same amount of energy released. Second-by-second fuel consumption and emissions from one FFV Ford Focus fueled with E85 and gasoline were measured under real-world traffic conditions in Lisbon, Portugal, using a portable emissions measurement system (PEMS). Cycle average dynamometer fuel consumption and emission test results for FFVs are available from the U.S. Department of Energy, and emissions certification test results for ethanol-fueled vehicles are available from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. On the basis of the PEMS data, vehicle-specific power (VSP)-based modal average fuel and emission rates for both fuels are estimated. For E85 versus gasoline, empirical ratios of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions agree within a margin of error to the theoretical expectations. Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were found to be typically lower. From the PEMS data, nitric oxide (NO) emissions associated with some higher VSP modes are higher for E85. From the dynamometer and certification data, average hydrocarbon (HC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission differences vary depending on the vehicle. The differences of average E85 versus gasoline emission rates for all vehicle models are -22% for CO, 12% for HC, and -8% for NOx emissions, which imply that replacing gasoline with E85 reduces CO emissions, may moderately decrease NOx tailpipe emissions, and may increase HC tailpipe emissions. On a fuel life cycle basis for corn-based ethanol versus gasoline, CO emissions are estimated to decrease by 18%. Life-cycle total and fossil CO2 emissions are estimated to decrease by 25 and 50%, respectively; however, life-cycle HC and NOx emissions are estimated to increase by 18 and 82%, respectively.

Cancer incidence attributable to insufficient fibre consumption in Alberta in 2012

PubMed Central

Grundy, Anne; Poirier, Abbey E.; Khandwala, Farah; McFadden, Alison; Friedenreich, Christine M.; Brenner, Darren R.

2017-01-01

Background: Insufficient fibre consumption has been associated with a increased risk of colorectal cancer. The purpose of this study was to estimate the proportion and absolute number of cancers in Alberta that could be attributed to insufficient fibre consumption in 2012. Methods: The number and proportion of colorectal cancers in Alberta attributable to insufficient fibre consumption were estimated using the population attributable risk. Relative risks were obtained from the World Cancer Research Fund's 2011 Continuous Update Project on colorectal cancer, and the prevalence of insufficient fibre consumption (< 23 g/d) was estimated using dietary data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project. Age- and sex-specific colorectal cancer incidence data for 2012 were obtained from the Alberta Cancer Registry. Results: Between 66% and 67% of men and between 73% and 78% of women reported a diet with insufficient fibre consumption. Population attributable risk estimates for colorectal cancer were marginally higher in men, ranging from 6.3% to 6.8% across age groups, whereas in women they ranged from 5.0% to 5.5%. Overall, 6.0% of colorectal cancers or 0.7% of all cancers in Alberta in 2012 were estimated to be attributable to insufficient fibre consumption. Interpretation: Insufficient fibre consumption accounted for 6.0% of colorectal cancers in Alberta in 2012. Increasing fibre consumption in Alberta has the potential to reduce to the future burden of colorectal cancer in the province. PMID:28401112

AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) to Estimate the Pattern and Correlates of Alcohol Consumption among the Adult Population of West Bengal, India: A Community Based Cross-sectional Study

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Introduction Pattern of alcohol consumption substantially changed in India with in last 20 to 25 years. Excessive alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for various morbidity and mortality. So, scientific study to identify alcohol consumption patterns and its correlates will be helpful to formulate preventive strategies. Aim To estimate the pattern of alcohol consumption and to determine its correlates, among the adult population of the state of West Bengal in India. Materials and Methods A community based cross-sectional study was conducted among the adult population of the state of West Bengal at Gram Panchayat (GP) level. Ninety-nine (n=99) adult (≥ 18 years) men and women of Guchati GP at Paschim Medinipur district, was selected using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) technique. The study participants were interviewed using a pre-designed and pre-tested schedule. Results It was estimated that the prevalence of low risk drinking or abstinence (Zone I) was 65.5% (95% CI 55.5% to 75.5%) and the prevalence of alcohol use in excess of low-risk (Zone II) was 17.6% (95% CI 7.6% to 27.6%), and the prevalence of harmful and hazardous drinking (Zone III) was 8.5% (95% CI 0% to 18.5%) and the prevalence alcohol dependence (Zone-IV) was 8.4% (0% to 18.4%). Logistic regression model shows that “gender” (p = 0.00) and “employment status” (p = 0.01) added significantly to the model with adjusted odds ratio of 82.27 (95% CI 18.17-372.58) and 0.13 (0.03–0.66). Conclusion There is a need for comprehensive screening and treatment programme to deal with the problems of Alcohol Use Disorders among adults to achieve good health and well being for sustainable development. PMID:28571168

AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) to Estimate the Pattern and Correlates of Alcohol Consumption among the Adult Population of West Bengal, India: A Community Based Cross-sectional Study.

PubMed

Sau, Arkaprabha

2017-04-01

Pattern of alcohol consumption substantially changed in India with in last 20 to 25 years. Excessive alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for various morbidity and mortality. So, scientific study to identify alcohol consumption patterns and its correlates will be helpful to formulate preventive strategies. To estimate the pattern of alcohol consumption and to determine its correlates, among the adult population of the state of West Bengal in India. A community based cross-sectional study was conducted among the adult population of the state of West Bengal at Gram Panchayat (GP) level. Ninety-nine (n=99) adult (≥ 18 years) men and women of Guchati GP at Paschim Medinipur district, was selected using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) technique. The study participants were interviewed using a pre-designed and pre-tested schedule. It was estimated that the prevalence of low risk drinking or abstinence (Zone I) was 65.5% (95% CI 55.5% to 75.5%) and the prevalence of alcohol use in excess of low-risk (Zone II) was 17.6% (95% CI 7.6% to 27.6%), and the prevalence of harmful and hazardous drinking (Zone III) was 8.5% (95% CI 0% to 18.5%) and the prevalence alcohol dependence (Zone-IV) was 8.4% (0% to 18.4%). Logistic regression model shows that "gender" (p = 0.00) and "employment status" (p = 0.01) added significantly to the model with adjusted odds ratio of 82.27 (95% CI 18.17-372.58) and 0.13 (0.03-0.66). There is a need for comprehensive screening and treatment programme to deal with the problems of Alcohol Use Disorders among adults to achieve good health and well being for sustainable development.

Establishing safe and potentially efficacious fortification contents for folic acid and vitamin B12.

PubMed

Dary, Omar

2008-06-01

Determining the micronutrient contents infortified foods depends not only on the health goal (additional intake to complement the diet), but also on ensuring that fortification does not raise micronutrient intakes beyond the Tolerable Upper Intake Level (UL), i.e., the safe limit. Technological incompatibility and cost may also restrict the fortification contents. For folic acid, the limiting factor is safety, while for vitamin B12, it is cost. However, adequate fortification contents that are both safe and efficacious can be estimated for both nutrients. In order to obtain the maximum benefit from the fortification programs, three different formulas responding to three categories of consumption, as specified by the median and 95th percentile of consumption, are proposed. The model presented is based on the estimation of a Feasible Fortification Level (FFL), which then is used to determine the average, minimum, and maximum contents of the nutrients during production, taking into consideration the acceptable variation of the fortification process. Finally, the regulatory parameters, which support standards and enforcement, are calculated by reducing the proportion of the nutrient that is degraded during the usual marketing process of the fortified food. It is expected that this model will establish a common standard for food fortification, and improve the reliability and enforcement procedures of these programs. The model was applied to flours as vehicles for folic acid in the United States, Guatemala, and Chile. Analysis of the data revealed that, with the exception of Chile, where wheat flour consumption is very high and probably within a narrow range, supplementation with folic acid is still needed to cover individuals at the low end of consumption. This is especially true when the difference in flour consumption is too wide, as in the case of Guatemala, where the proportional difference between consumption at the 95th percentile of the nonpoor group is as high as 100 times the consumption at the 5th percentile of the extremely poor group. Adoption of fortification content for staple foods near the safe limit brings together the need of restricting the voluntary addition of the specific nutrient to other foods and to dietary supplements.

A revised econometric model of the domestic pallet market

Treesearch

Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

1983-01-01

The purpose of this revised model is to project estimates of consumption and price of wooden pallets in the short term. This model differs from previous ones developed by Schuler and Wallin (1979 and 1980) in the following respects: The structure of the supply side of the market is more realistically identified (from an economic theory point of view) by including...

Maté drinking and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in South America: pooled results from two large multicenter case-control studies.

PubMed

Lubin, Jay H; De Stefani, Eduardo; Abnet, Christian C; Acosta, Gisele; Boffetta, Paolo; Victora, Cesar; Graubard, Barry I; Muñoz, Nubia; Deneo-Pellegrini, Hugo; Franceschi, Silvia; Castellsagué, Xavier; Ronco, Alvaro L; Dawsey, Sanford M

2014-01-01

Maté tea is a nonalcoholic infusion widely consumed in southern South America, and may increase risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and other cancers due to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and/or thermal injury. We pooled two case-control studies: a 1988 to 2005 Uruguay study and a 1986 to 1992 multinational study in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, including 1,400 cases and 3,229 controls. We computed ORs and fitted a linear excess OR (EOR) model for cumulative maté consumption in liters/day-year (LPDY). The adjusted OR for ESCC with 95% confidence interval (CI) by ever compared with never use of maté was 1.60 (1.2-2.2). ORs increased linearly with LPDY (test of nonlinearity; P = 0.69). The estimate of slope (EOR/LPDY) was 0.009 (0.005-0.014) and did not vary with daily intake, indicating maté intensity did not influence the strength of association. EOR/LPDY estimates for consumption at warm, hot, and very hot beverage temperatures were 0.004 (-0.002-0.013), 0.007 (0.003-0.013), and 0.016 (0.009-0.027), respectively, and differed significantly (P < 0.01). EOR/LPDY estimates were increased in younger (<65) individuals and never alcohol drinkers, but these evaluations were post hoc, and were homogeneous by sex. ORs for ESCC increased linearly with cumulative maté consumption and were unrelated to intensity, so greater daily consumption for shorter duration or lesser daily consumption for longer duration resulted in comparable ORs. The strength of association increased with higher maté temperatures. Increased understanding of cancer risks with maté consumption enhances the understanding of the public health consequences given its purported health benefits.

Are Alcohol Taxation and Pricing Policies Regressive? Product-Level Effects of a Specific Tax and a Minimum Unit Price for Alcohol.

PubMed

Vandenberg, Brian; Sharma, Anurag

2016-07-01

To compare estimated effects of two policy alternatives, (i) a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol and (ii) specific (per-unit) taxation, upon current product prices, per capita spending (A$), and per capita consumption by income quintile, consumption quintile and product type. Estimation of baseline spending and consumption, and modelling policy-to-price and price-to-consumption effects of policy changes using scanner data from a panel of demographically representative Australian households that includes product-level details of their off-trade alcohol spending (n = 885; total observations = 12,505). Robustness checks include alternative price elasticities, tax rates, minimum price thresholds and tax pass-through rates. Current alcohol taxes and alternative taxation and pricing policies are not highly regressive. Any regressive effects are small and concentrated among heavy consumers. The lowest-income consumers currently spend a larger proportion of income (2.3%) on alcohol taxes than the highest-income consumers (0.3%), but the mean amount is small in magnitude [A$5.50 per week (95%CI: 5.18-5.88)]. Both a MUP and specific taxation will have some regressive effects, but the effects are limited, as they are greatest for the heaviest consumers, irrespective of income. Among the policy alternatives, a MUP is more effective in reducing consumption than specific taxation, especially for consumers in the lowest-income quintile: an estimated mean per capita reduction of 11.9 standard drinks per week (95%CI: 11.3-12.6). Policies that increase the cost of the cheapest alcohol can be effective in reducing alcohol consumption, without having highly regressive effects. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Energy consumption estimation of an OMAP-based Android operating system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, Gabriel; Juárez, Eduardo; Castro, Juan José; Sanz, César

2011-05-01

System-level energy optimization of battery-powered multimedia embedded systems has recently become a design goal. The poor operational time of multimedia terminals makes computationally demanding applications impractical in real scenarios. For instance, the so-called smart-phones are currently unable to remain in operation longer than several hours. The OMAP3530 processor basically consists of two processing cores, a General Purpose Processor (GPP) and a Digital Signal Processor (DSP). The former, an ARM Cortex-A8 processor, is aimed to run a generic Operating System (OS) while the latter, a DSP core based on the C64x+, has architecture optimized for video processing. The BeagleBoard, a commercial prototyping board based on the OMAP processor, has been used to test the Android Operating System and measure its performance. The board has 128 MB of SDRAM external memory, 256 MB of Flash external memory and several interfaces. Note that the clock frequency of the ARM and DSP OMAP cores is 600 MHz and 430 MHz, respectively. This paper describes the energy consumption estimation of the processes and multimedia applications of an Android v1.6 (Donut) OS on the OMAP3530-Based BeagleBoard. In addition, tools to communicate the two processing cores have been employed. A test-bench to profile the OS resource usage has been developed. As far as the energy estimates concern, the OMAP processor energy consumption model provided by the manufacturer has been used. The model is basically divided in two energy components. The former, the baseline core energy, describes the energy consumption that is independent of any chip activity. The latter, the module active energy, describes the energy consumed by the active modules depending on resource usage.

Power Consumption Optimization in Tooth Gears Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanatnikov, N.; Harlamov, G.; Kanatnikova, P.; Pashmentova, A.

2018-01-01

The paper reviews the issue of optimization of technological process of tooth gears production of the power consumption criteria. The authors dwell on the indices used for cutting process estimation by the consumed energy criteria and their applicability in the analysis of the toothed wheel production process. The inventors proposed a method for optimization of power consumptions based on the spatial modeling of cutting pattern. The article is aimed at solving the problem of effective source management in order to achieve economical and ecological effect during the mechanical processing of toothed gears. The research was supported by Russian Science Foundation (project No. 17-79-10316).

The Economic Gains of Achieving Reduced Alcohol Consumption Targets for Australia

PubMed Central

Magnus, Anne; Cadilhac, Dominique; Sheppard, Lauren; Cumming, Toby; Pearce, Dora; Carter, Rob

2012-01-01

Objectives. To inform prevention policy, we estimated the economic benefits to health, production, and leisure in the 2008 Australian population of a realistic target reduction in per capita annual adult alcohol consumption. Methods. We chose a target of 6.4 liters annually per capita on average. We modeled lifetime health benefits as fewer incident cases of alcohol-related disease, deaths, and disability adjusted life years. We estimated production gains with surveyed participation and absenteeism rates. We valued gains with friction cost and human capital methods. We estimated and valued household production and leisure gains from time-use surveys. Results. A reduction of 3.4 liters of alcohol consumed annually per capita would result in one third fewer incident cases of disease (98 000), deaths (380), working days lost (5 million), days of home-based production lost (54 000), and a A$ 789-million health sector cost reduction. Workforce production had a A$ 427 million gain when we used the friction cost method. By contrast, we estimated a loss of 28 000 leisure days and 1000 additional early retirements. Conclusions. Economic savings and health benefits from reduced alcohol consumption may be substantial—particularly in the health sector with reduced alcohol-related disease and injury. PMID:22594720

Consumptive use and resulting leach-field water budget of a mountain residence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stannard, David; Paul, William T.; Laws, Roy; Poeter, Eileen P.

2010-01-01

Consumptive use of water in a dispersed rural community has important implications for maximum housing density and its effects on sustainability of groundwater withdrawals. Recent rapid growth in Colorado, USA has stressed groundwater supplies in some areas, thereby increasing scrutiny of approximate methods developed there more than 30 years ago to estimate consumptive use that are still used today. A foothills residence was studied during a 2-year period to estimate direct and indirect water losses. Direct losses are those from evaporation inside the home, plus any outdoor use. Indirect loss is evapotranspiration (ET) from the residential leach-field in excess of ET from the immediately surrounding terrain. Direct losses were 18.7% of water supply to the home, substantially larger than estimated historically in Colorado. A new approach was developed to estimate indirect loss, using chamber methods together with the Penman–Monteith model. Indirect loss was only 0.9% of water supply, but this value probably was anomalously low due to a recurring leach-field malfunction. Resulting drainage beneath the leach-field was 80.4% of water supply. Guidelines are given to apply the same methodology at other sites and combine results with a survey of leach-fields in an area to obtain more realistic average values of ET losses.

Ocular oxygen consumption: estimates using vitreoperfusion in the cat.

PubMed

Blair, Norman P; Liu, Ting; Warren, Keith A; Glaser, David A; Kennedy, Marc; Tran, Huan; Larson, Christopher A; Atluri, Prasant; Saidel, Michael A; Blair, Michael P

2004-02-01

Little is known about the ocular oxygen consumption rate (QO2) in human diseases. Alterations in QO2 must occur in many conditions, such as retinal ischemia. We present a method of estimating QO2 that eventually could be used in patients during vitrectomy surgery. We performed vitreoperfusion (i.e., perfusion of the vitreous cavity after vitrectomy) in 14 cat eyes with no ocular blood flow. The solution contained nutrients at a high partial pressure of oxygen (PO2). In eight eyes, the retinas were undisturbed (Group 1), and in six eyes, we excised the retinas (Group 2). We estimated QO2 in both groups on the basis of the temporal decline of PO2 in the vitreoperfusion solution according to a pharmacokinetic model. The mean and standard deviation of QO2 was 3.2 +/- 0.8 microL/min in Group 1 and 0.4+/- 0.7 microL/min in Group 2, with the difference being the retinal contribution, 88%. In Group 1, metabolism, bulk flow, and diffusion accounted for 82, 13, and 5%, respectively, of the oxygen loss from the vitreoperfusion solution. We estimated ocular oxygen consumption by means of vitreoperfusion. Eventually, the pathophysiology of human diseases may be clarified by similar measurements during vitrectomy.

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT): Version 2c Service Pack 2: Installation Guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) is a software system that models aircraft performance in space and time to estimate fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and air quality consequences. AEDT facilitates environmental review activities required ...

Estimating the cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to the European Common Agricultural Policy on dietary saturated fats

PubMed Central

O’Flaherty, Martin; Mwatsama, Modi; Birt, Christopher; Ireland, Robin; Capewell, Simon

2008-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate the burden of cardiovascular disease within 15 European Union countries (before the 2004 enlargement) as a result of excess dietary saturated fats attributable to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Methods A spreadsheet model was developed to synthesize data on population, diet, cholesterol levels and mortality rates. A conservative estimate of a reduction in saturated fat consumption of just 2.2 g was chosen, representing 1% of daily energy intake. The fall in serum cholesterol concentration was then calculated, assuming that this 1% reduction in saturated fat consumption was replaced with 0.5% monounsaturated and 0.5% polyunsaturated fats. The resulting reduction in cardiovascular and stroke deaths was then estimated, and a sensitivity analysis conducted. Findings Reducing saturated fat consumption by 1% and increasing monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat by 0.5% each would lower blood cholesterol levels by approximately 0.06 mmol/l, resulting in approximately 9800 fewer coronary heart disease deaths and 3000 fewer stroke deaths each year. Conclusion The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to CAP appears substantial. Furthermore, these calculations were conservative estimates, and the true mortality burden may be higher. The analysis contributes to the current wider debate concerning the relationship between CAP, health and chronic disease across Europe, together with recent international developments and commitments to reduce chronic diseases. The reported mortality estimates should be considered in relation to the current CAP and any future reforms. PMID:18670665

Coffee, tea, caffeine intake and risk of adult glioma in 3 prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Holick, Crystal N.; Smith, Scott G.; Giovannucci, Edward; Michaud, Dominique S.

2009-01-01

Current data suggest that caffeinated beverages may be associated with lower risk of glioma. Caffeine has different effects on the brain, some which could play a role in brain carcinogenesis, and coffee has been consistently associated with reduced risk of liver cancer, thus suggesting a potential anticarcinogenic effect. A total of 335 incident cases of gliomas (men = 133, women = 202) were available from three independent cohort studies. Dietary intake was assessed by food-frequency questionnaires obtained at baseline and during follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between consumption of coffee, tea, carbonated beverages, caffeine, and glioma risk adjusting for age and total caloric intake. Estimates from each cohort were pooled using a random-effects model. Consumption of five or more cups of coffee and tea a day compared to no consumption was associated with a decrease risk of glioma (RR = 0.60; 95% CI: 0.41–0.87; p-trend = 0.04). Inverse, although weaker, associations were also observed between coffee, caffeinated coffee, tea, carbonated beverages and glioma risk. No association was observed between decaffeinated coffee and glioma risk. Among men, a statistically significant inverse association was observed between caffeine consumption and risk of glioma (RR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.26–0.81; p-trend = 0.03); the association was weaker among women. Our findings suggest that consumption of caffeinated beverages, including coffee and tea, may reduce the risk of adult glioma, but further research is warranted to confirm these findings in other populations. PMID:20056621

Input-output modeling for urban energy consumption in Beijing: dynamics and comparison.

PubMed

Zhang, Lixiao; Hu, Qiuhong; Zhang, Fan

2014-01-01

Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect) energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making.

Input-Output Modeling for Urban Energy Consumption in Beijing: Dynamics and Comparison

PubMed Central

Zhang, Lixiao; Hu, Qiuhong; Zhang, Fan

2014-01-01

Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect) energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making. PMID:24595199

Developing a tool to estimate water withdrawal and consumption in electricity generation in the United States.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, M.; Peng, J.; NE)

2011-02-24

Freshwater consumption for electricity generation is projected to increase dramatically in the next couple of decades in the United States. The increased demand is likely to further strain freshwater resources in regions where water has already become scarce. Meanwhile, the automotive industry has stepped up its research, development, and deployment efforts on electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Large-scale, escalated production of EVs and PHEVs nationwide would require increased electricity production, and so meeting the water demand becomes an even greater challenge. The goal of this study is to provide a baseline assessment of freshwater use inmore » electricity generation in the United States and at the state level. Freshwater withdrawal and consumption requirements for power generated from fossil, nonfossil, and renewable sources via various technologies and by use of different cooling systems are examined. A data inventory has been developed that compiles data from government statistics, reports, and literature issued by major research institutes. A spreadsheet-based model has been developed to conduct the estimates by means of a transparent and interactive process. The model further allows us to project future water withdrawal and consumption in electricity production under the forecasted increases in demand. This tool is intended to provide decision makers with the means to make a quick comparison among various fuel, technology, and cooling system options. The model output can be used to address water resource sustainability when considering new projects or expansion of existing plants.« less

Bioenergetic model estimates of interannual and spatial patterns in consumption demand and growth potential of juvenile pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in the Gulf of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, Jamal H.; Beauchamp, David A.; Cross, Alison D.; Farley, Edward V.; Murphy, James M.; Helle, John H.; Walker, Robert V.; Myers, Katherine W.

2009-12-01

A bioenergetic model of juvenile pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) was used to estimate daily prey consumption and growth potential of four ocean habitats in the Gulf of Alaska during 2001 and 2002. Growth potential was not significantly higher in 2002 than in 2001 at an alpha level of 0.05 ( P=0.073). Average differences in growth potential across habitats were minimal (slope habitat=0.844 g d -1, shelf habitat=0.806 g d -1, offshore habitat=0.820 g d -1, and nearshore habitat=0.703 g d -1) and not significantly different ( P=0.630). Consumption demand differed significantly between hatchery and wild stocks ( P=0.035) when examined within year due to the interaction between hatchery verses wild origin and year. However, the overall effect of origin across years was not significant ( P=0.705) due to similar total amounts of prey consumed by all juvenile pink salmon in both study years. We anticipated that years in which ocean survival was high would have had high growth potential, but this relationship did not prove to be true. Therefore, modeled growth potential may not be useful as a tool for forecasting survival of Prince William Sound hatchery pink salmon stocks. Significant differences in consumption demand and a two-fold difference in nearshore abundance during 2001 of hatchery and wild pink salmon confirmed the existence of strong and variable interannual competition and the importance of the nearshore region as being a potential competitive bottleneck.

Bioenergetic model estimates of interannual and spatial patterns in consumption demand and growth potential of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in the Gulf of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, J.H.; Beauchamp, D.A.; Cross, A.D.; Farley, E.V.; Murphy, J.M.; Helle, J.H.; Walker, R.V.; Myers, K.W.

2009-01-01

A bioenergetic model of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) was used to estimate daily prey consumption and growth potential of four ocean habitats in the Gulf of Alaska during 2001 and 2002. Growth potential was not significantly higher in 2002 than in 2001 at an alpha level of 0.05 (P=0.073). Average differences in growth potential across habitats were minimal (slope habitat=0.844 g d-1, shelf habitat=0.806 g d-1, offshore habitat=0.820 g d-1, and nearshore habitat=0.703 g d-1) and not significantly different (P=0.630). Consumption demand differed significantly between hatchery and wild stocks (P=0.035) when examined within year due to the interaction between hatchery verses wild origin and year. However, the overall effect of origin across years was not significant (P=0.705) due to similar total amounts of prey consumed by all juvenile pink salmon in both study years. We anticipated that years in which ocean survival was high would have had high growth potential, but this relationship did not prove to be true. Therefore, modeled growth potential may not be useful as a tool for forecasting survival of Prince William Sound hatchery pink salmon stocks. Significant differences in consumption demand and a two-fold difference in nearshore abundance during 2001 of hatchery and wild pink salmon confirmed the existence of strong and variable interannual competition and the importance of the nearshore region as being a potential competitive bottleneck.

[Fire behavior of Quercus mongolica leaf litter fuelbed under zero-slope and no-wind conditions. II. Analysis and modelling of fireline intensity, fuel consumption, and combustion efficiency].

PubMed

Zhang, Ji-Li; Liu, Bo-Fei; Di, Xue-Ying; Chu, Teng-Fei; Jin, Sen

2013-12-01

Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) is an important constructive and accompanying species in mixed broadleaf-conifer forest in Northeast China, In this paper, a laboratory burning experiment was conducted under zero-slope and no-wind conditions to study the effects of fuel moisture content, loading, and thickness on the fireline intensity, fuel consumption, and combustion efficiency of the Mongolian oak leaf litter fuelbed. The fuel moisture content, loading, and thickness all had significant effects on the three fire behavior indices, and there existed interactions between these three affecting factors. Among the known models, the Byram model could be suitable for the prediction of local leaf litter fire intensity only after re-parameterization. The re-estimated alpha and beta parameters of the re-parameterized Byram model were 98.009 and 1.099, with an adjusted determination coefficient of 0.745, the rooted mean square error (RMSE) of 8.676 kW x m(-1), and the mean relative error (MRE) of 21%, respectively (R2 = 0.745). The re-estimated a and b by the burning efficiency method proposed by Albini were 0.069 and 0.169, and the re-estimated values were all higher than 93%, being mostly overestimated. The Consume model had a stronger suitability for the fuel. The R2 of the general linear models established for fireline intensity, fuel consumption, and burning efficiency was 0.82, 0.73 and 0.53, and the RMSE was 8.266 kW x m(-1) 0.081 kg x m(-2), and 0.203, respectively. In low intensity surface fires, the fine fuels could not be completely consumed, and thus, to consider the leaf litter and fine fuel in some forest ecosystems being completely consumed would overestimate the carbon release from forest fires.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jama, M.A.

This study sought to examine energy-consumption patterns in a cross section of rural households in Kenya and to analyze how these use patterns relate to socio-economic, demographic, institutional, and energy market factors. The models specified were demands for fuelwood, charcoal, kerosene, commercial heat energy, and aggregate energy. For fuelwood, a probit analysis was utilized to determine the conditional probability of fuelwood consumption and a least-squares regression to determine quantity consumed. Ordinary regression was used to estimate demand for the other fuels. The research indicates that household incomes, family size, improved ceramic stoves, other fuels, and occupation are the most influentialmore » variables on consumption of various fuels. The quantities of fuelwood, charcoal, and kerosene consumed are not very responsive to changes in income. Aggregate energy is income-inelastic and a normal good, while woodfuel and kerosene are inferior products. The model indicates that redirection of a 10% increase in income, so that only the low-income households benefit, would cause only a small, 1% increase in fuelwood consumption.« less

Mechanics based model for predicting structure-induced rolling resistance (SRR) of the tire-pavement system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakiba, Maryam; Ozer, Hasan; Ziyadi, Mojtaba; Al-Qadi, Imad L.

2016-11-01

The structure-induced rolling resistance of pavements, and its impact on vehicle fuel consumption, is investigated in this study. The structural response of pavement causes additional rolling resistance and fuel consumption of vehicles through deformation of pavement and various dissipation mechanisms associated with inelastic material properties and damping. Accurate and computationally efficient models are required to capture these mechanisms and obtain realistic estimates of changes in vehicle fuel consumption. Two mechanistic-based approaches are currently used to calculate vehicle fuel consumption as related to structural rolling resistance: dissipation-induced and deflection-induced methods. The deflection-induced approach is adopted in this study, and realistic representation of pavement-vehicle interactions (PVIs) is incorporated. In addition to considering viscoelastic behavior of asphalt concrete layers, the realistic representation of PVIs in this study includes non-uniform three-dimensional tire contact stresses and dynamic analysis in pavement simulations. The effects of analysis type, tire contact stresses, pavement viscoelastic properties, pavement damping coefficients, vehicle speed, and pavement temperature are then investigated.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Apte, Michael G.; Mendell, Mark J.; Sohn, Michael D.

Through mass-balance modeling of various ventilation scenarios that might satisfy the ASHRAE 62.1 Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Procedure, we estimate indoor concentrations of contaminants of concern (COCs) in California “big box” stores, compare estimates to available thresholds, and for selected scenarios estimate differences in energy consumption. Findings are intended to inform decisions on adding performance-based approaches to ventilation rate (VR) standards for commercial buildings. Using multi-zone mass-balance models and available contaminant source rates, we estimated concentrations of 34 COCs for multiple ventilation scenarios: VRmin (0.04 cfm/ft2 ), VRmax (0.24 cfm/ft2 ), and VRmid (0.14 cfm/ft2 ). We compared COC concentrationsmore » with available health, olfactory, and irritant thresholds. We estimated building energy consumption at different VRs using a previously developed EnergyPlus model. VRmax did control all contaminants adequately, but VRmin did not, and VRmid did so only marginally. Air cleaning and local ventilation near strong sources both showed promise. Higher VRs increased indoor concentrations of outdoor air pollutants. Lowering VRs in big box stores in California from VRmax to VRmid would reduce total energy use by an estimated 6.6% and energy costs by 2.5%. Reducing the required VRs in California’s big box stores could reduce energy use and costs, but poses challenges for health and comfort of occupants. Source removal, air cleaning, and local ventilation may be needed at reduced VRs, and even at current recommended VRs. Also, alternative ventilation strategies taking climate and season into account in ventilation schedules may provide greater energy cost savings than constant ventilation rates, while improving IAQ.« less

Measuring selected PPCPs in wastewater to estimate the population in different cities in China.

PubMed

Gao, Jianfa; O'Brien, Jake; Du, Peng; Li, Xiqing; Ort, Christoph; Mueller, Jochen F; Thai, Phong K

2016-10-15

Sampling and analysis of wastewater from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) has become a useful tool for understanding exposure to chemicals. Both wastewater based studies and management and planning of the catchment require information on catchment population in the time of monitoring. Recently, a model has been developed and calibrated using selected pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) measured in influent wastewater for estimating population in different catchments in Australia. The present study aimed at evaluating the feasibility of utilizing this population estimation approach in China. Twenty-four hour composite influent samples were collected from 31 WWTPs in 17 cities with catchment sizes from 200,000-3,450,000 people representing all seven regions of China. The samples were analyzed for 19 PPCPs using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry in direct injection mode. Eight chemicals were detected in more than 50% of the samples. Significant positive correlations were found between individual PPCP mass loads and population estimates provided by WWTP operators. Using the PPCP mass load modeling approach calibrated with WWTP operator data, we estimated the population size of each catchment with good agreement with WWTP operator values (between 50-200% for all sites and 75-125% for 23 of the 31 sites). Overall, despite much lower detection and relatively high heterogeneity in PPCP consumption across China the model provided a good estimate of the population contributing to a given wastewater sample. Wastewater analysis could also provide objective PPCP consumption status in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth observation based assessment of the water production and water consumption of Nile Basin agro-ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bastiaanssen, Wim G.M.; Karimi, Poolad; Rebelo, Lisa-Maria; Duan, Zheng; Senay, Gabriel; Muthuwatte, Lal; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2014-01-01

The increasing competition for water resources requires a better understanding of flows, fluxes, stocks, and the services and benefits related to water consumption. This paper explains how public domain Earth Observation data based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Second Generation Meteosat (MSG), Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and various altimeter measurements can be used to estimate net water production (rainfall (P) > evapotranspiration (ET)) and net water consumption (ET > P) of Nile Basin agro-ecosystems. Rainfall data from TRMM and the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) RainFall Estimates (RFE) products were used in conjunction with actual evapotranspiration from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) and ETLook models. Water flows laterally between net water production and net water consumption areas as a result of runoff and withdrawals. This lateral flow between the 15 sub-basins of the Nile was estimated, and partitioned into stream flow and non-stream flow using the discharge data. A series of essential water metrics necessary for successful integrated water management are explained and computed. Net water withdrawal estimates (natural and humanly instigated) were assumed to be the difference between net rainfall (Pnet) and actual evapotranspiration (ET) and some first estimates of withdrawals—without flow meters—are provided. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems withdraw large volumes of groundwater, which exceed water withdrawals for the irrigation sector. There is a strong need for the development of more open-access Earth Observation databases, especially for information related to actual ET. The fluxes, flows and storage changes presented form the basis for a global framework to describe monthly and annual water accounts in ungauged river basins.

State energy price and expenditure report 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-06-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 States and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the United States. The price and expenditure estimates developed in the State Energy Price and Expenditure Data System (SEPEDS) are provided by energy source and economic sector and are published for the years 1970 through 1994. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures and the documentation for those estimates are taken from the State Energy Data Report 1994, Consumption Estimates (SEDR), published in October 1996. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimatesmore » by the consumption estimates, which are adjusted to remove process fuel; intermediate petroleum products; and other consumption that has no direct fuel costs, i.e., hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, solar, and photovoltaic energy sources. Documentation is included describing the development of price estimates, data sources, and calculation methods. 316 tabs.« less

Using probabilistic modeling to evaluate human exposure to organotin in drinking water transported by polyvinyl chloride pipe.

PubMed

Fristachi, Anthony; Xu, Ying; Rice, Glenn; Impellitteri, Christopher A; Carlson-Lynch, Heather; Little, John C

2009-11-01

The leaching of organotin (OT) heat stabilizers from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipes used in residential drinking water systems may affect the quality of drinking water. These OTs, principally mono- and di-substituted species of butyltins and methyltins, are a potential health concern because they belong to a broad class of compounds that may be immune, nervous, and reproductive system toxicants. In this article, we develop probability distributions of U.S. population exposures to mixtures of OTs encountered in drinking water transported by PVC pipes. We employed a family of mathematical models to estimate OT leaching rates from PVC pipe as a function of both surface area and time. We then integrated the distribution of estimated leaching rates into an exposure model that estimated the probability distribution of OT concentrations in tap waters and the resulting potential human OT exposures via tap water consumption. Our study results suggest that human OT exposures through tap water consumption are likely to be considerably lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) "safe" long-term concentration in drinking water (150 microg/L) for dibutyltin (DBT)--the most toxic of the OT considered in this article. The 90th percentile average daily dose (ADD) estimate of 0.034 +/- 2.92 x 10(-4)microg/kg day is approximately 120 times lower than the WHO-based ADD for DBT (4.2 microg/kg day).

Models and signal processing for an implanted ethanol bio-sensor.

PubMed

Han, Jae-Joon; Doerschuk, Peter C; Gelfand, Saul B; O'Connor, Sean J

2008-02-01

The understanding of drinking patterns leading to alcoholism has been hindered by an inability to unobtrusively measure ethanol consumption over periods of weeks to months in the community environment. An implantable ethanol sensor is under development using microelectromechanical systems technology. For safety and user acceptability issues, the sensor will be implanted subcutaneously and, therefore, measure peripheral-tissue ethanol concentration. Determining ethanol consumption and kinetics in other compartments from the time course of peripheral-tissue ethanol concentration requires sophisticated signal processing based on detailed descriptions of the relevant physiology. A statistical signal processing system based on detailed models of the physiology and using extended Kalman filtering and dynamic programming tools is described which can estimate the time series of ethanol concentration in blood, liver, and peripheral tissue and the time series of ethanol consumption based on peripheral-tissue ethanol concentration measurements.

Bioenergetics assessment of fish and crayfish consumption by river otter (Lontra canadensis): integrating prey availability, diet, and field metabolic rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dekar, Matthew P.; Magoulick, Daniel D.; Beringer, J.

2010-01-01

River otters (Lontra canadensis) are important predators in aquatic ecosystems, but few studies quantify their prey consumption. We trapped crayfish monthly as an index of availability and collected otter scat for diet analysis in the Ozark Mountains of northwestern Arkansas, USA. We measured otter daily energy expenditure (DEE) with the doubly labeled water method to develop a bioenergetics model for estimating monthly prey consumption. Meek's crayfish (Orconectes meeki) catch-per-unit-effort was positively related to stream temperature, indicating that crayfish were more available during warmer months. The percentage frequency of occurrence for crayfish in scat samples peaked at 85.0% in summer and was lowest (42.3%) in winter. In contrast, the percentage occurrence of fish was 13.3% in summer and 57.7% in winter. Estimates of DEE averaged 4738 kJ·day-1 for an otter with a body mass of 7842 g. Total biomass consumption ranged from 35 079 to 52 653 g·month-1 (wet mass), corresponding to a high proportion of fish and crayfish in the diet, respectively. Otter consumption represents a large fraction of prey production, indicating potentially strong effects of otters on trophic dynamics in stream ecosystems.

Analysis of Vibrio vulnificus Infection Risk When Consuming Depurated Raw Oysters.

PubMed

Deng, Kai; Wu, Xulei; Fuentes, Claudio; Su, Yi-Cheng; Welti-Chanes, Jorge; Paredes-Sabja, Daniel; Torres, J Antonio

2015-06-01

A beta Poisson dose-response model for Vibrio vulnificus food poisoning cases leading to septicemia was used to evaluate the effect of depuration at 15 °C on the estimated health risk associated with raw oyster consumption. Statistical variability sources included V. vulnificus level at harvest, time and temperature during harvest and transportation to processing plants, decimal reductions (SV) observed during experimental circulation depuration treatments, refrigerated storage time before consumption, oyster size, and number of oysters per consumption event. Although reaching nondetectable V. vulnificus levels (<30 most probable number per gram) throughout the year and a 3.52 SV were estimated not possible at the 95% confidence level, depuration for 1, 2, 3, and 4 days would reduce the warm season (June through September) risk from 2,669 cases to 558, 93, 38, and 47 cases per 100 million consumption events, respectively. At the 95% confidence level, 47 and 16 h of depuration would reduce the warm and transition season (April through May and October through November) risk, respectively, to 100 cases per 100 million consumption events, which is assumed to be an acceptable risk; 1 case per 100 million events would be the risk when consuming untreated raw oysters in the cold season (December through March).

Potential benefits of minimum unit pricing for alcohol versus a ban on below cost selling in England 2014: modelling study.

PubMed

Brennan, Alan; Meng, Yang; Holmes, John; Hill-McManus, Daniel; Meier, Petra S

2014-09-30

To evaluate the potential impact of two alcohol control policies under consideration in England: banning below cost selling of alcohol and minimum unit pricing. Modelling study using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.5. England 2014-15. Adults and young people aged 16 or more, including subgroups of moderate, hazardous, and harmful drinkers. Policy to ban below cost selling, which means that the selling price to consumers could not be lower than tax payable on the product, compared with policies of minimum unit pricing at £0.40 (€0.57; $0.75), 45 p, and 50 p per unit (7.9 g/10 mL) of pure alcohol. Changes in mean consumption in terms of units of alcohol, drinkers' expenditure, and reductions in deaths, illnesses, admissions to hospital, and quality adjusted life years. The proportion of the market affected is a key driver of impact, with just 0.7% of all units estimated to be sold below the duty plus value added tax threshold implied by a ban on below cost selling, compared with 23.2% of units for a 45 p minimum unit price. Below cost selling is estimated to reduce harmful drinkers' mean annual consumption by just 0.08%, around 3 units per year, compared with 3.7% or 137 units per year for a 45 p minimum unit price (an approximately 45 times greater effect). The ban on below cost selling has a small effect on population health-saving an estimated 14 deaths and 500 admissions to hospital per annum. In contrast, a 45 p minimum unit price is estimated to save 624 deaths and 23,700 hospital admissions. Most of the harm reductions (for example, 89% of estimated deaths saved per annum) are estimated to occur in the 5.3% of people who are harmful drinkers. The ban on below cost selling, implemented in the England in May 2014, is estimated to have small effects on consumption and health harm. The previously announced policy of a minimum unit price, if set at expected levels between 40 p and 50 p per unit, is estimated to have an approximately 40-50 times greater effect. © Brennan et al 2014.

Potential benefits of minimum unit pricing for alcohol versus a ban on below cost selling in England 2014: modelling study

PubMed Central

Meng, Yang; Holmes, John; Hill-McManus, Daniel; Meier, Petra S

2014-01-01

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of two alcohol control policies under consideration in England: banning below cost selling of alcohol and minimum unit pricing. Design Modelling study using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.5. Setting England 2014-15. Population Adults and young people aged 16 or more, including subgroups of moderate, hazardous, and harmful drinkers. Interventions Policy to ban below cost selling, which means that the selling price to consumers could not be lower than tax payable on the product, compared with policies of minimum unit pricing at £0.40 (€0.57; $0.75), 45p, and 50p per unit (7.9 g/10 mL) of pure alcohol. Main outcome measures Changes in mean consumption in terms of units of alcohol, drinkers’ expenditure, and reductions in deaths, illnesses, admissions to hospital, and quality adjusted life years. Results The proportion of the market affected is a key driver of impact, with just 0.7% of all units estimated to be sold below the duty plus value added tax threshold implied by a ban on below cost selling, compared with 23.2% of units for a 45p minimum unit price. Below cost selling is estimated to reduce harmful drinkers’ mean annual consumption by just 0.08%, around 3 units per year, compared with 3.7% or 137 units per year for a 45p minimum unit price (an approximately 45 times greater effect). The ban on below cost selling has a small effect on population health—saving an estimated 14 deaths and 500 admissions to hospital per annum. In contrast, a 45p minimum unit price is estimated to save 624 deaths and 23 700 hospital admissions. Most of the harm reductions (for example, 89% of estimated deaths saved per annum) are estimated to occur in the 5.3% of people who are harmful drinkers. Conclusions The ban on below cost selling, implemented in the England in May 2014, is estimated to have small effects on consumption and health harm. The previously announced policy of a minimum unit price, if set at expected levels between 40p and 50p per unit, is estimated to have an approximately 40-50 times greater effect. PMID:25270743

Improving Large-scale Biomass Burning Carbon Consumption and Emissions Estimates in the Former Soviet Union based on Fire Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westberg, D. J.; Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N.; Parfenova, E. I.; Kukavskaya, E.; de Groot, B.; McRae, D.; Conard, S. G.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.

2012-12-01

Estimating the amount of biomass burned during fire events is challenging, particularly in remote and diverse regions, like those of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Historically, we have typically assumed 25 tons of carbon per hectare (tC/ha) is emitted, however depending on the ecosystem and severity, biomass burning emissions can range from 2 to 75 tC/ha. Ecosystems in the FSU span from the tundra through the taiga to the forest-steppe, steppe and desserts and include the extensive West Siberian lowlands, permafrost-lain forests and agricultural lands. Excluding this landscape disparity results in inaccurate emissions estimates and incorrect assumptions in the transport of these emissions. In this work, we present emissions based on a hybrid ecosystem map and explicit estimates of fuel that consider the depth of burning based on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Specifically, the ecosystem map is a fusion of satellite-based data, a detailed ecosystem map and Alexeyev and Birdsey carbon storage data, which is used to build carbon databases that include the forest overstory and understory, litter, peatlands and soil organic material for the FSU. We provide a range of potential carbon consumption estimates for low- to high-severity fires across the FSU that can be used with fire weather indices to more accurately estimate fire emissions. These data can be incorporated at ecoregion and administrative territory scales and are optimized for use in large-scale Chemical Transport Models. Additionally, paired with future climate scenarios and ecoregion cover, these carbon consumption data can be used to estimate potential emissions.

Heating with Biomass in the United Kingdom: Lessons from New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, E. J. S.; Coulson, G.; Butt, E. W.; Forster, P. M.; Jones, J. M.; Williams, A.

2017-03-01

In this study we review the current status of residential solid fuel (RSF) use in the UK and compare it with New Zealand, which has had severe wintertime air quality issues for many years that is directly attributable to domestic wood burning in heating stoves. Results showed that RSF contributed to more than 40 μg m-3 PM10 and 10 μg m-3 BC in some suburban locations of New Zealand in 2006, with significant air quality and climate impacts. Models predict RSF consumption in New Zealand to decrease slightly from 7 PJ to 6 PJ between 1990 and 2030, whereas consumption in the UK increases by a factor of 14. Emissions are highest from heating stoves and fireplaces, and their calculated contribution to radiative forcing in the UK increases by 23% between 2010 and 2030, with black carbon accounting for more than three quarters of the total warming effect. By 2030, the residential sector accounts for 44% of total BC emissions in the UK and far exceeds emissions from the traffic sector. Finally, a unique bottom-up emissions inventory was produced for both countries using the latest national survey and census data for the year 2013/14. Fuel- and technology-specific emissions factors were compared between multiple inventories including GAINS, the IPCC, the EMEP/EEA and the NAEI. In the UK, it was found that wood consumption in stoves was within 30% of the GAINS inventory, but consumption in fireplaces was substantially higher and fossil fuel consumption is more than twice the GAINS estimate. As a result, emissions were generally a factor of 2-3 higher for biomass and 2-6 higher for coal. In New Zealand, coal and lignite consumption in stoves is within 24% of the GAINS inventory estimate, but wood consumption is more than 7 times the GAINS estimate. As a result, emissions were generally a factor of 1-2 higher for coal and several times higher for wood. The results of this study indicate that emissions from residential heating stoves and fireplaces may be underestimated in climate models. Emissions are increasing rapidly in the UK which may result in severe wintertime air quality reductions, as seen in New Zealand, and contribute to climate warming unless controls are implemented such as the Ecodesign emissions limits.

Coffee and green tea consumption is associated with insulin resistance in Japanese adults.

PubMed

Pham, Ngoc Minh; Nanri, Akiko; Kochi, Takeshi; Kuwahara, Keisuke; Tsuruoka, Hiroko; Kurotani, Kayo; Akter, Shamima; Kabe, Isamu; Sato, Masao; Hayabuchi, Hitomi; Mizoue, Tetsuya

2014-03-01

Higher coffee and green tea consumption has been suggested to decrease risk of type 2 diabetes, but their roles in insulin resistance (IR) and insulin secretion remain unclear. This study examined the association between habitual consumption of these beverages and markers of glucose metabolism in a Japanese working population. Participants were 1440 Japanese employees (1151 men and 289 women) aged 18-69years. Consumption of coffee and green tea was ascertained via a validated brief diet history questionnaire. Multilevel linear regression was used to estimate means (95% confidence intervals) of fasting insulin, fasting plasma glucose, homeostatic model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR), homeostatic model assessment of β-cell function (HOMA-β) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) with adjustment for potential confounding variables. Coffee consumption was significantly, inversely associated with HOMA-IR (P for trend=0.03), and the association appeared to be confined to overweight subjects (BMI≥25kg/m(2)) (P for trend=0.01, P for interaction=0.08). Unexpectedly, green tea consumption was positively associated with HOMA-IR (P for trend=0.02), though there was no dose-response relationship among daily consumers of green tea. Neither coffee nor green tea consumption was associated with HOMA-β and HbA1c. Our findings indicate that coffee consumption may be associated with decreased IR, but not with insulin secretion. The positive association between green tea consumption and IR warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumption of cigarettes and combustible tobacco--United States, 2000-2011.

PubMed

2012-08-03

Smoking cigarettes and other combustible tobacco products causes adverse health outcomes, particularly cancer and cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. A priority of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is to develop innovative, rapid-response surveillance systems for assessing changes in tobacco use and related health outcomes. The two standard approaches for measuring smoking rates and behaviors are 1) surveying a representative sample of the public and asking questions about personal smoking behaviors and 2) estimating consumption based on tobacco excise tax data. Whereas CDC regularly publishes findings on national and state-specific smoking rates from public surveys, CDC has not reported consumption estimates. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), which previously provided such estimates, stopped reporting on consumption in 2007. To estimate consumption for the period 2000-2011, CDC examined excise tax data from the U.S. Department of Treasury's Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB); consumption estimates were calculated for cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, pipe tobacco, and small and large cigars. From 2000 to 2011, total consumption of all combustible tobacco decreased from 450.7 billion cigarette equivalents to 326.6, a 27.5% decrease; per capita consumption of all combustible tobacco products declined from 2,148 to 1,374, a 36.0% decrease. However, while consumption of cigarettes decreased 32.8% from 2000 to 2011, consumption of loose tobacco and cigars increased 123.1% over the same period. As a result, the percentage of total combustible tobacco consumption composed of loose tobacco and cigars increased from 3.4% in 2000 to 10.4% in 2011. The data suggest that certain smokers have switched from cigarettes to other combustible tobacco products, most notably since a 2009 increase in the federal tobacco excise tax that created tax disparities between product types.

Decreasing the Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in South Africa: The Impact of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages.

PubMed

Manyema, Mercy; Veerman, J Lennert; Chola, Lumbwe; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Labadarios, Demetre; Hofman, Karen

2015-01-01

Type 2 diabetes poses an increasing public health burden in South Africa (SA) with obesity as the main driver of the epidemic. Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) is linked to weight gain and reducing SSB consumption may significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the burden of diabetes in SA. We constructed a life table-based model in Microsoft Excel (2010). Consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations were used to estimate changes in daily energy intake and its projected impact on BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Diabetes relative risk and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on diabetes burden. Diabetes cost estimates were obtained from the South African Council for Medical Schemes. Over 20 years, a 20% SSB tax could reduce diabetes incident cases by 106 000 in women (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 70 000-142 000) and by 54 000 in men (95% UI: 33 000-80 000); and prevalence in all adults by 4.0% (95% UI: 2.7%-5.3%). Cumulatively over twenty years, approximately 21 000 (95% UI: 14 000-29 000) adult T2DM-related deaths, 374 000 DALYs attributed to T2DM (95% UI: 299 000-463 000) and over ZAR10 billion T2DM healthcare costs (95% UI: ZAR6.8-14.0 billion) equivalent to USD860 million (95% UI: USD570 million-USD1.2 billion) may be averted. Fiscal policy on SSBs has the potential to mitigate the diabetes epidemic in South Africa and contribute to the National Department of Health goals stated in the National NCD strategic plan.

Regional alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality in Great Britain: novel insights using retail sales data.

PubMed

Robinson, Mark; Shipton, Deborah; Walsh, David; Whyte, Bruce; McCartney, Gerry

2015-01-07

Regional differences in population levels of alcohol-related harm exist across Great Britain, but these are not entirely consistent with differences in population levels of alcohol consumption. This incongruence may be due to the use of self-report surveys to estimate consumption. Survey data are subject to various biases and typically produce consumption estimates much lower than those based on objective alcohol sales data. However, sales data have never been used to estimate regional consumption within Great Britain (GB). This ecological study uses alcohol retail sales data to provide novel insights into regional alcohol consumption in GB, and to explore the relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality. Alcohol sales estimates derived from electronic sales, delivery records and retail outlet sampling were obtained. The volume of pure alcohol sold was used to estimate per adult consumption, by market sector and drink type, across eleven GB regions in 2010-11. Alcohol-related mortality rates were calculated for the same regions and a cross-sectional correlation analysis between consumption and mortality was performed. Per adult consumption in northern England was above the GB average and characterised by high beer sales. A high level of consumption in South West England was driven by on-trade sales of cider and spirits and off-trade wine sales. Scottish regions had substantially higher spirits sales than elsewhere in GB, particularly through the off-trade. London had the lowest per adult consumption, attributable to lower off-trade sales across most drink types. Alcohol-related mortality was generally higher in regions with higher per adult consumption. The relationship was weakened by the South West and Central Scotland regions, which had the highest consumption levels, but discordantly low and very high alcohol-related mortality rates, respectively. This study provides support for the ecological relationship between alcohol-related mortality and alcohol consumption. The synthesis of knowledge from a combination of sales, survey and mortality data, as well as primary research studies, is key to ensuring that regional alcohol consumption, and its relationship with alcohol-related harms, is better understood.

Cancers in Australia in 2010 attributable to the consumption of alcohol.

PubMed

Pandeya, Nirmala; Wilson, Louise F; Webb, Penelope M; Neale, Rachel E; Bain, Christopher J; Whiteman, David C

2015-10-01

To estimate the proportion and numbers of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 that are attributable to alcohol consumption. We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancers causally associated with alcohol consumption using standard formulae incorporating prevalence of alcohol consumption and relative risks associated with consumption and cancer. We also estimated the proportion change in cancer incidence (potential impact fraction [PIF]) that might have occurred under the hypothetical scenario that an intervention reduced alcohol consumption, so that no-one drank >2 drinks/day. An estimated 3,208 cancers (2.8% of all cancers) occurring in Australian adults in 2010 could be attributed to alcohol consumption. The greatest numbers were for cancers of the colon (868) and female breast cancer (830). The highest PAFs were for squamous cell carcinomas of the oral cavity/pharynx (31%) and oesophagus (25%). The incidence of alcohol-associated cancer types could have been reduced by 1,442 cases (4.3%)--from 33,537 to 32,083--if no Australian adult consumed >2 drinks/day. More than 3,000 cancers were attributable to alcohol consumption and thus were potentially preventable. Strategies that limit alcohol consumption to guideline levels could prevent a large number of cancers in Australian adults. © 2015 The Authors.

Energy Performance Monitoring and Optimization System for DoD Campuses

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-01

estimated that, on average, the EPMO system exceeded the energy consumption reduction target of 20% and improved occupant thermal comfort by reducing the...dynamic models, operational and thermal comfort constraints, and plant efficiency in the same framework (Borrelli and Keviczky, 2008; Borrelli, Pekar...optimization modeling language uses the models described above in conjunction with information such as: thermal comfort constraints, equipment constraints, and

Enhanced monitoring of the temporal and spatial relationships between water demand and water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, C. A.; Aggett, G. R.; Hattendorf, M. J.

2007-12-01

Better information on evapotranspiration (ET) is essential to better understanding of consumptive use of water by crops. RTi is using NASA Earth-sun System research results and METRIC (Mapping ET at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration) to increase the repeatability and accuracy of consumptive use estimates. METRIC, an image-processing model for calculating ET as a residual of the surface energy balance, utilizes the thermal band on various satellite remote sensors. Calculating actual ET from satellites can avoid many of the assumptions driving other methods of calculating ET over a large area. Because it is physically based and does not rely on explicit knowledge of crop type in the field, a large potential source of error should be eliminated. This paper assesses sources of error in current operational estimates of ET for an area of the South Platte irrigated lands of Colorado, and benchmarks potential improvements in the accuracy of ET estimates gained using METRIC, as well as the processing efficiency of consumptive use demand for large irrigated lands. Examples highlighting how better water planning decisions and water management can be achieved via enhanced monitoring of the temporal and spatial relationships between water demand and water availability are provided.

Analyzing Long-run Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Kingdom of Bahrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naser, Hanan

2017-11-01

Since the relation between energy consumption and economic growth is important to design effective energy policies that will promote economic growth, this study investigates the short run dynamics and causality among energy consumption, co2 emissions, oil prices and economic growth in Kingdom of Bahrain. To do so, annual data that covers the period from 1960 till 2015. Empirical work tests for unit root, co-integration relationship using Johansen (1988) approach and then estimate both long and short run dynamics using the vector error correction model (VECM). Results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the suggested variables. Since economic growth has a predictive power to estimate the energy demand of Kingdom of Bahrain, it is recommended that the government of Bahrain and policy designers shed the light on energy efficiency strategies and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth in order to move towards sustainability.

Computer model to simulate testing at the National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mineck, Raymond E.; Owens, Lewis R., Jr.; Wahls, Richard A.; Hannon, Judith A.

1995-01-01

A computer model has been developed to simulate the processes involved in the operation of the National Transonic Facility (NTF), a large cryogenic wind tunnel at the Langley Research Center. The simulation was verified by comparing the simulated results with previously acquired data from three experimental wind tunnel test programs in the NTF. The comparisons suggest that the computer model simulates reasonably well the processes that determine the liquid nitrogen (LN2) consumption, electrical consumption, fan-on time, and the test time required to complete a test plan at the NTF. From these limited comparisons, it appears that the results from the simulation model are generally within about 10 percent of the actual NTF test results. The use of actual data acquisition times in the simulation produced better estimates of the LN2 usage, as expected. Additional comparisons are needed to refine the model constants. The model will typically produce optimistic results since the times and rates included in the model are typically the optimum values. Any deviation from the optimum values will lead to longer times or increased LN2 and electrical consumption for the proposed test plan. Computer code operating instructions and listings of sample input and output files have been included.

Tracking Biases: An Update to the Validity and Reliability of Alcohol Retail Sales Data for Estimating Population Consumption in Scotland

PubMed Central

Henderson, Audrey; Robinson, Mark; McAdams, Rachel; McCartney, Gerry; Beeston, Clare

2016-01-01

Aims To highlight the importance of monitoring biases when using retail sales data to estimate population alcohol consumption. Methods Previously, we identified and where possible quantified sources of bias that may lead to under- or overestimation of alcohol consumption in Scotland. Here, we update findings by using more recent data and by quantifying emergent biases. Results Underestimation resulting from the net effect of biases on population consumption in Scotland increased from −4% in 2010 to −7% in 2013. Conclusion Biases that might impact on the validity and reliability of sales data when estimating population consumption should be routinely monitored and updated. PMID:26419684

Estimating tobacco consumption in remote Aboriginal communities using retail sales data: some challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

MacLaren, David; Redman-MacLaren, Michelle; Clough, Alan

2010-07-01

To describe and discuss challenges and opportunities encountered when estimating tobacco consumption in six remote Aboriginal communities using tobacco sales data from retail outlets. We consider tobacco sales data collected from retail outlets selling tobacco to six Aboriginal communities in two similar but separate studies. Despite challenges--including: not all outlets provided data; data not uniform across outlets (sales and invoice data); change in format of data; personnel change or management restructures; and anomalies in data and changes in community populations--tobacco consumption was estimated and returned through project newsletters and community feedback sessions. Amounts of tobacco sold were returned using graphs in newsletters and pictures of items common to the community in community feedback sessions. Despite inherent limitations of estimating tobacco consumption using tobacco sales data, returning the amount of tobacco sold to communities provided an opportunity to discuss tobacco consumption and provide a focal point for individual and community action. Using this method, however, may require large and sustained changes be observed over time to evaluate whether initiatives to reduce tobacco consumption have been effective. Estimating tobacco consumption in remote Aboriginal communities using tobacco sales data from retail outlets requires careful consideration of many logistical, social, cultural and geographic challenges.

Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials.

PubMed

Poças, Maria F; Oliveira, Jorge C; Brandsch, Rainer; Hogg, Timothy

2010-07-01

The use of probabilistic approaches in exposure assessments of contaminants migrating from food packages is of increasing interest but the lack of concentration or migration data is often referred as a limitation. Data accounting for the variability and uncertainty that can be expected in migration, for example, due to heterogeneity in the packaging system, variation of the temperature along the distribution chain, and different time of consumption of each individual package, are required for probabilistic analysis. The objective of this work was to characterize quantitatively the uncertainty and variability in estimates of migration. A Monte Carlo simulation was applied to a typical solution of the Fick's law with given variability in the input parameters. The analysis was performed based on experimental data of a model system (migration of Irgafos 168 from polyethylene into isooctane) and illustrates how important sources of variability and uncertainty can be identified in order to refine analyses. For long migration times and controlled conditions of temperature the affinity of the migrant to the food can be the major factor determining the variability in the migration values (more than 70% of variance). In situations where both the time of consumption and temperature can vary, these factors can be responsible, respectively, for more than 60% and 20% of the variance in the migration estimates. The approach presented can be used with databases from consumption surveys to yield a true probabilistic estimate of exposure.

[Retrospective analysis of Mexican National Addictions Survey, 2008. Bias identification and correction].

PubMed

Romero-Martínez, Martín; Téllez-Rojo Solís, Martha María; Sandoval-Zárate, América Andrea; Zurita-Luna, Juan Manuel; Gutiérrez-Reyes, Juan Pablo

2013-01-01

To determine the presence of bias on the estimation of the consumption sometime in life of alcohol, tobacco or illegal drugs and inhalable substances, and to propose a correction for this in the case it is present. Mexican National Addictions Surveys (NAS) 2002, 2008, and 2011 were analyzed to compare population estimations of consumption sometime in life of tobacco, alcohol or illegal drugs and inhalable substances. A couple of alternative approaches for bias correction were developed. Estimated national prevalences of consumption sometime in life of alcohol and tobacco in the NAS 2008 are not plausible. There was no evidence of bias on the consumption sometime in life of illegal drugs and inhalable substances. New estimations for tobacco and alcohol consumption sometime in life were made, which resulted in plausible values when compared to other data available. Future analyses regarding tobacco and alcohol using NAS 2008 data will have to rely on these newly generated data weights, that are able to reproduce the new (plausible) estimations.

A model of the dynamics of household vegetarian and vegan rates in the U.K.

PubMed

Waters, James

2018-08-01

Although there are many studies of determinants of vegetarianism and veganism, there have been no previous studies of how their rates in a population jointly change over time. In this paper, we present a flexible model of vegetarian and vegan dietary choices, and derive the joint dynamics of rates of consumption. We fit our model to a pseudo-panel with 23 years of U.K. household data, and find that while vegetarian rates are largely determined by current household characteristics, vegan rates are additionally influenced by their own lagged value. We solve for equilibrium rates of vegetarianism and veganism, show that rates of consumption return to their equilibrium levels following a temporary event which changes those rates, and estimate the effects of campaigns to promote non-meat diets. We find that a persistent vegetarian campaign has a significantly positive effect on the rate of vegan consumption, in answer to an active debate among vegan campaigners. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the percent of the population meeting USDA Food Patterns fruit and vegetable intake recommendations

PubMed Central

Moore, Latetia V; Dodd, Kevin W; Thompson, Frances E; Grimm, Kirsten A; Kim, Sonia A; Scanlon, Kelley S

2015-01-01

Most Americans do not eat enough fruits and vegetables with significant variation by state. State-level self-reported frequency of fruit and vegetable consumption is available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). However, BRFSS cannot be used to directly compare states’ progress towards national goals because of incongruence in units used to measure intake and because distributions from frequency data are not reflective of usual intake. To help states track progress, we developed scoring algorithms from external data and applied them to 2011 BRFSS data to estimate the percent of each state’s adult population meeting United States Department of Agriculture Food Patterns fruit and vegetable intake recommendations. We used 24 hour dietary recall data from the 2007–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to fit sex- and age-specific models that estimate probabilities of meeting recommendations as functions of reported consumption frequency, race/ethnicity, and poverty-income ratio adjusting for intra-individual variation. Regression parameters derived from these models were applied to BRFSS to estimate percent meeting recommendations. We estimate that 7–18% of state populations met fruit recommendations and 5–12% met vegetable recommendations. Our method provides a new tool for states to track progress towards meeting dietary recommendations. PMID:25935424

Exploring the link between environmental pollution and economic growth in EU-28 countries: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?

PubMed Central

Armeanu, Daniel; Vintilă, Georgeta; Gherghina, Ştefan Cristian; Drăgoi, Mihaela Cristina; Teodor, Cristian

2018-01-01

This study examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis (EKC), considering the primary energy consumption among other country-specific variables, for a panel of the EU-28 countries during the period 1990–2014. By estimating pooled OLS regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors in order to account for cross-sectional dependence, the results confirm the EKC hypothesis in the case of emissions of sulfur oxides and emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds. In addition to pooled estimations, the output of fixed-effects regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors support the EKC hypothesis for greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas emissions intensity of energy consumption, emissions of nitrogen oxides, emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and emissions of ammonia. Additionally, the empirical findings from panel vector error correction model reveal a short-run unidirectional causality from GDP per capita growth to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a bidirectional causal link between primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, since there occurred no causal link between economic growth and primary energy consumption, the neo-classical view was confirmed, namely the neutrality hypothesis. PMID:29742169

Exploring the link between environmental pollution and economic growth in EU-28 countries: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?

PubMed

Armeanu, Daniel; Vintilă, Georgeta; Andrei, Jean Vasile; Gherghina, Ştefan Cristian; Drăgoi, Mihaela Cristina; Teodor, Cristian

2018-01-01

This study examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis (EKC), considering the primary energy consumption among other country-specific variables, for a panel of the EU-28 countries during the period 1990-2014. By estimating pooled OLS regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors in order to account for cross-sectional dependence, the results confirm the EKC hypothesis in the case of emissions of sulfur oxides and emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds. In addition to pooled estimations, the output of fixed-effects regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors support the EKC hypothesis for greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas emissions intensity of energy consumption, emissions of nitrogen oxides, emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and emissions of ammonia. Additionally, the empirical findings from panel vector error correction model reveal a short-run unidirectional causality from GDP per capita growth to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a bidirectional causal link between primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, since there occurred no causal link between economic growth and primary energy consumption, the neo-classical view was confirmed, namely the neutrality hypothesis.

WaterSense Program: Methodology for National Water Savings Analysis Model Indoor Residential Water Use

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitehead, Camilla Dunham; McNeil, Michael; Dunham_Whitehead, Camilla

2008-02-28

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) influences the market for plumbing fixtures and fittings by encouraging consumers to purchase products that carry the WaterSense label, which certifies those products as performing at low flow rates compared to unlabeled fixtures and fittings. As consumers decide to purchase water-efficient products, water consumption will decline nationwide. Decreased water consumption should prolong the operating life of water and wastewater treatment facilities.This report describes the method used to calculate national water savings attributable to EPA?s WaterSense program. A Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, the National Water Savings (NWS) analysis model, accompanies this methodology report. Version 1.0more » of the NWS model evaluates indoor residential water consumption. Two additional documents, a Users? Guide to the spreadsheet model and an Impacts Report, accompany the NWS model and this methodology document. Altogether, these four documents represent Phase One of this project. The Users? Guide leads policy makers through the spreadsheet options available for projecting the water savings that result from various policy scenarios. The Impacts Report shows national water savings that will result from differing degrees of market saturation of high-efficiency water-using products.This detailed methodology report describes the NWS analysis model, which examines the effects of WaterSense by tracking the shipments of products that WaterSense has designated as water-efficient. The model estimates market penetration of products that carry the WaterSense label. Market penetration is calculated for both existing and new construction. The NWS model estimates savings based on an accounting analysis of water-using products and of building stock. Estimates of future national water savings will help policy makers further direct the focus of WaterSense and calculate stakeholder impacts from the program.Calculating the total gallons of water the WaterSense program saves nationwide involves integrating two components, or modules, of the NWS model. Module 1 calculates the baseline national water consumption of typical fixtures, fittings, and appliances prior to the program (as described in Section 2.0 of this report). Module 2 develops trends in efficiency for water-using products both in the business-as-usual case and as a result of the program (Section 3.0). The NWS model combines the two modules to calculate total gallons saved by the WaterSense program (Section 4.0). Figure 1 illustrates the modules and the process involved in modeling for the NWS model analysis.The output of the NWS model provides the base case for each end use, as well as a prediction of total residential indoor water consumption during the next two decades. Based on the calculations described in Section 4.0, we can project a timeline of water savings attributable to the WaterSense program. The savings increase each year as the program results in the installation of greater numbers of efficient products, which come to compose more and more of the product stock in households throughout the United States.« less

Cost, Energy, and Environmental Impact of Automated Electric Taxi Fleets in Manhattan.

PubMed

Bauer, Gordon S; Greenblatt, Jeffery B; Gerke, Brian F

2018-04-17

Shared automated electric vehicles (SAEVs) hold great promise for improving transportation access in urban centers while drastically reducing transportation-related energy consumption and air pollution. Using taxi-trip data from New York City, we develop an agent-based model to predict the battery range and charging infrastructure requirements of a fleet of SAEVs operating on Manhattan Island. We also develop a model to estimate the cost and environmental impact of providing service and perform extensive sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our predictions. We estimate that costs will be lowest with a battery range of 50-90 mi, with either 66 chargers per square mile, rated at 11 kW or 44 chargers per square mile, rated at 22 kW. We estimate that the cost of service provided by such an SAEV fleet will be $0.29-$0.61 per revenue mile, an order of magnitude lower than the cost of service of present-day Manhattan taxis and $0.05-$0.08/mi lower than that of an automated fleet composed of any currently available hybrid or internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). We estimate that such an SAEV fleet drawing power from the current NYC power grid would reduce GHG emissions by 73% and energy consumption by 58% compared to an automated fleet of ICEVs.

A simulation model to predict the fiscal and public health impact of a change in cigarette excise taxes.

PubMed

van Walbeek, Corné

2010-02-01

(1) To present a model that predicts changes in cigarette consumption and excise revenue in response to excise tax changes, and (2) to demonstrate that, if the industry has market power, increases in specific taxes have better tobacco control consequences than increases in ad valorem taxes. All model parameters are user-determined. The model calculates likely changes in cigarette consumption, smoking prevalence and excise tax revenues due to an excise tax change. The model is applicable to countries that levy excise tax as specific or ad valorem taxes. For a representative low-income or middle-income country a 20% excise tax increase decreases cigarette consumption and industry revenue by 5% and increases excise tax revenues by 14%, if there is no change in the net-of-tax price. If the excise tax is levied as a specific tax, the industry has an incentive to raise the net-of-tax price, enhancing the consumption-reducing impact of the tax increase. If the excise tax is levied as an ad valorem tax, the industry has no such incentive. The industry has an incentive to reduce the net-of-tax price in response to an ad valorem excise tax increase, undermining the public health and fiscal benefits of the tax increase. This paper presents a simple web-based tool that allows policy makers and tobacco control advocates to estimate the likely consumption, fiscal and mortality impacts of a change in the cigarette excise tax. If a country wishes to reduce cigarette consumption by increasing the excise tax, a specific tax structure is better than an ad valorem tax structure.

Averting obesity and type 2 diabetes in India through sugar-sweetened beverage taxation: an economic-epidemiologic modeling study.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Agrawal, Sutapa; Stuckler, David; Popkin, Barry; Ebrahim, Shah

2014-01-01

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population. Using consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%-5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%-1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014-2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5-10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0-2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014-2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations. Sustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations.

Quantitative diet reconstruction of a Neolithic population using a Bayesian mixing model (FRUITS): The case study of Ostorf (Germany).

PubMed

Fernandes, Ricardo; Grootes, Pieter; Nadeau, Marie-Josée; Nehlich, Olaf

2015-07-14

The island cemetery site of Ostorf (Germany) consists of individual human graves containing Funnel Beaker ceramics dating to the Early or Middle Neolithic. However, previous isotope and radiocarbon analysis demonstrated that the Ostorf individuals had a diet rich in freshwater fish. The present study was undertaken to quantitatively reconstruct the diet of the Ostorf population and establish if dietary habits are consistent with the traditional characterization of a Neolithic diet. Quantitative diet reconstruction was achieved through a novel approach consisting of the use of the Bayesian mixing model Food Reconstruction Using Isotopic Transferred Signals (FRUITS) to model isotope measurements from multiple dietary proxies (δ 13 C collagen , δ 15 N collagen , δ 13 C bioapatite , δ 34 S methione , 14 C collagen ). The accuracy of model estimates was verified by comparing the agreement between observed and estimated human dietary radiocarbon reservoir effects. Quantitative diet reconstruction estimates confirm that the Ostorf individuals had a high protein intake due to the consumption of fish and terrestrial animal products. However, FRUITS estimates also show that plant foods represented a significant source of calories. Observed and estimated human dietary radiocarbon reservoir effects are in good agreement provided that the aquatic reservoir effect at Lake Ostorf is taken as reference. The Ostorf population apparently adopted elements associated with a Neolithic culture but adapted to available local food resources and implemented a subsistence strategy that involved a large proportion of fish and terrestrial meat consumption. This case study exemplifies the diversity of subsistence strategies followed during the Neolithic. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The impact of taxation on tobacco consumption in Mexico.

PubMed

Jiménez-Ruiz, J A; Sáenz de Miera, B; Reynales-Shigematsu, L M; Waters, H R; Hernández-Avila, M

2008-04-01

The price of cigarettes to consumers in Mexico, and Latin America in general, remains low in comparison with other regions of the world. In Mexico, taxes represented 59% of the total price of cigarettes in 2006, compared to 75% or more in many high-income countries. The feasibility of raising taxes on cigarettes in Mexico--to both discourage consumption and increase revenues--is an important policy question. Using household survey data, we undertake a pooled cross-sectional analysis of the demand for cigarettes in Mexico. We use a two-part model to estimate the price elasticity of cigarettes. This model controls for the selection effect that arises from the fact that the impact of price on the decision to smoke or not is estimated using all households in the dataset. The results indicate that price is a significant factor in household decisions concerning smoking and the number of cigarettes smoked. Holding other factors constant, our simulations show that a 10% increase in the cigarette tax in Mexico--calculated as a percentage of the price--yields a 12.4% increase in the price to the consumer, a 6.4% decrease in consumption of cigarettes and a 15.7% increase in the revenue yielded by the tax. In Mexico, there are strong arguments for increasing cigarette taxes. Revenue raised could be used to further prevent tobacco consumption and to finance current funding shortages for the treatment of diseases related to smoking.

Pre-pregnancy fried food consumption and the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Bao, Wei; Tobias, Deirdre K.; Olsen, Sjurdur F.; Zhang, Cuilin

2014-01-01

Aims/hypothesis Fried foods are frequently consumed in Western countries. However, the health effects of frequent fried food consumption in humans are not well understood. We aimed to prospectively examine the association between pre-pregnancy fried food consumption and risk of incident gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Methods We included 21,079 singleton pregnancies from 15,027 women in the Nurses’ Health Study II cohort. Since 1991 and every 4 years thereafter, we collected diet information, including consumption of fried foods at home and away from home, using a validated food frequency questionnaire. We used generalised estimating equations with log-binomial models to estimate the RRs and 95% CIs. Results We documented 847 incident GDM pregnancies during 10 years of follow-up. After adjustment for age, parity, dietary and non-dietary factors, the RRs (95% CIs) of GDM among women who consumed total fried foods 1–3, 4–6 and ≥ 7 times/week, compared with those who consumed it less than once/week, were 1.13 (0.97, 1.32), 1.31 (1.08, 1.59) and 2.18 (1.53, 3.09), respectively (p for trend < 0.001). The association persisted after further adjustment for BMI (p for trend = 0.01). When analysed separately, we found a significant association of GDM with fried food consumption away from home, but not with fried food consumption at home. Conclusions/interpretation Frequent fried food consumption, particularly away from home, was significantly associated with a greater risk of incident GDM. Our study indicates potential benefits of limiting fried food consumption in the prevention of GDM in women of reproductive age. PMID:25303998

Home Sweet Home: Parent and Home Environmental Factors in Adolescent Consumption of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages.

PubMed

Bogart, Laura M; Elliott, Marc N; Ober, Allison J; Klein, David J; Hawes-Dawson, Jennifer; Cowgill, Burton O; Uyeda, Kimberly; Schuster, Mark A

2017-07-01

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are key contributors to obesity among youth. We investigated associations among parental and home-related factors (parental attitudes and consumption; home availability) regarding 3 types of SSBs-soda, sports drinks, and fruit-flavored drinks-with consumption of each type of SSB in a general school-based sample of adolescents. Data were collected across 3 school semesters, from 2009 to 2011. A total of 1313 seventh grade student-parent dyads participated. Students completed in-class surveys across 9 schools in a large Los Angeles school district; their parents completed telephone interviews. Youth were asked about their SSB consumption (soda, sports drinks, and fruit-flavored drinks), and parents were asked about their attitudes, consumption, and home availability of SSBs. We estimated expected rates of youth SSB consumption for hypothetical parents at very low (5th) and very high (95th) percentiles for home/parental risk factors (ie, they consumed little, had negative attitudes, and did not keep SSBs in the home; or they consumed a lot, had positive attitudes, and did keep SSBs in the home). Youth of lower-risk parents (at the 5th percentile) were estimated to drink substantially less of each type of beverage than did youth of higher-risk parents (at the 95th percentile). For example, youth with higher-risk parents averaged nearly double the SSB consumption of youth of lower-risk parents (2.77 vs 1.37 glasses on the previous day; overall model significance F 22,1312  = 3.91, P < .001). Results suggest a need to focus on parental and home environmental factors when intervening to reduce youths' SSB consumption. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the marine resources consumed in raising a king penguin chick: an energetics approach.

PubMed

Halsey, L G; Butler, P J; Fahlman, A; Bost, C-A; Woakes, A J; Handrich, Y

2008-01-01

Accurate estimates of penguin energetics would represent an important contribution to our understanding of the trophodynamics of the Southern Ocean ecosystem and our ability to predict effects of environmental change on these species. We used the heart rate-rate of oxygen consumption technique to estimate rate of energy expenditure in adult king penguins raising a chick, in combination with data from the literature on changes in adult mass, chick energy requirements, and prey energy density. Our model estimated a variety of energetic costs and quantities of prey consumption related to raising a king penguin chick during the austral summer. The total energy requirements of a king penguin chick at the Crozet Archipelago from hatching until reaching a mass of 8 kg 90 d later is 271 MJ, representing the consumption of 38.4 kg of myctophid fish. A successfully breeding male requires 0.78 kg d(-1) of fish during the entirety of the incubation period and 1.14 kg d(-1) during the subsequent 90 d of chick rearing. Assuming the same energy requirements for females, the estimated 580,000 pairs of king penguins that breed successfully at Crozet each year, together with their chicks, consume a total of around 190,000 tons of fish during the incubation and summer rearing periods combined. If, due to depletion of fish stocks, the diet of breeders and chicks during the summer becomes identical to the typical diet of adults during the austral winter, the mass of prey required by both adults and chicks combined (where the chick still reaches 8 kg after 90 d) would increase by more than 25%.

The next mesothelioma wave: mortality trends and forecast to 2030 in Brazil.

PubMed

Algranti, Eduardo; Saito, Cézar Akiyoshi; Carneiro, Ana Paula Scalia; Moreira, Bruno; Mendonça, Elizabete Medina Coeli; Bussacos, Marco Antonio

2015-10-01

There are limited data on mesothelioma mortality in industrializing countries, where, at present, most of the asbestos consumption occurs. To analyze temporal trends and to calculate mortality rates from mesothelioma and cancer of the pleura in Brazil from 2000 to 2012 and to estimate future mortality rates. We retrieved records of deaths from mesothelioma (ICD-10C45) and cancer of the pleura (ICD-10C38.4) from 2000 to 2012 in adults aged 30 years and over. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated. Rate ratios of mean crude mortality for selected municipalities were compared to the Brazilian rate. A regression was carried out of the annual number of deaths against asbestos consumption using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The best model was chosen to estimate the future burden and peak period of deaths. There were 929C45 and 1379 C38.4 deaths. The ratio of men to women for C45 was 1.4. A positive trend in C45 numbers was observed in Brazil (p=0.0012), particularly in São Paulo (p=0.0004) where ASMRs presented an increasing linear trend (p=0.0344). Selected municipalities harboring asbestos manipulation presented 3.7-11 fold rate ratios of C45 compared to Brazil. GAM presented best fits for latencies of 34 years or more. It is estimated that the peak incidence of C45 mortality will occur between 2021 and 2026. The observed ASMRs and the gender ratio close to 1 suggest underreporting. Even so, deaths are increasing and mesothelioma clusters were identified. Compared to industrialized countries Brazil displays a 15-20 year lag in estimated peak mesothelioma mortality which is consistent with the lag of asbestos peak consumption in the country. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The energy trilogy: An integrated sustainability model to bridge wastewater treatment plant energy and emissions gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Talibi, A. Adhim

An estimated 4% of national energy consumption is used for drinking water and wastewater services. Despite the awareness and optimization initiatives for energy conservation, energy consumption is on the rise owing to population and urbanization expansion and to commercial and industrial business advancement. The principal concern is since energy consumption grows, the higher will be the energy production demand, leading to an increase in CO2 footprints and the contribution to global warming potential. This research is in the area of energy-water nexus, focusing on wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) energy trilogy -- the group of three related entities, which includes processes: (1) consuming energy, (2) producing energy, and (3) the resulting -- CO2 equivalents. Detailed and measurable energy information is not readily obtained for wastewater facilities, specifically during facility preliminary design phases. These limitations call for data-intensive research approach on GHG emissions quantification, plant efficiencies and source reduction techniques. To achieve these goals, this research introduced a model integrating all plant processes and their pertinent energy sources. In a comprehensive and "Energy Source-to-Effluent Discharge" pattern, this model is capable of bridging the gaps of WWTP energy, facilitating plant designers' decision-making for meeting energy assessment, sustainability and the environmental regulatory compliance. Protocols for estimating common emissions sources are available such as for fuels, whereas, site-specific emissions for other sources have to be developed and are captured in this research. The dissertation objectives were met through an extensive study of the relevant literature, models and tools, originating comprehensive lists of processes and energy sources for WWTPs, locating estimation formulas for each source, identifying site specific emissions factors, and linking the sources in a mathematical model for site specific CO2 e determination. The model was verified and showed a good agreement with billed and measured data from a base case study. In a next phase, a supplemental computational tool can be created for conducting plant energy design comparisons and plant energy and emissions parameters assessments. The main conclusions drawn from this research is that current approaches are severely limited, not covering plant's design phase and not fully considering the balance of energy consumed (EC), energy produced (EP) and the resulting CO2 e emission integration. Finally their results are not representative. This makes reported governmental and institutional national energy consumption figures incomplete and/or misleading, since they are mainly considering energy consumptions from electricity and some fuels or certain processes only. The distinction of the energy trilogy model over existing approaches is based on the following: (1) the ET energy model is unprecedented, prepared to fit WWTP energy assessment during the design and rehabilitation phases, (2) links the energy trilogy eliminating the need for using several models or tools, (3) removes the need for on-site expensive energy measurements or audits, (4) offers alternatives for energy optimization during plant's life-cycle, and (5) ensures reliable GHG emissions inventory reporting for permitting and regulatory compliance.

Diffusion and Monod kinetics model to determine in vivo human corneal oxygen-consumption rate during soft contact lens wear.

PubMed

Del Castillo, Luis F; da Silva, Ana R Ferreira; Hernández, Saul I; Aguilella, M; Andrio, Andreu; Mollá, Sergio; Compañ, Vicente

2015-01-01

We present an analysis of the corneal oxygen consumption Qc from non-linear models, using data of oxygen partial pressure or tension (P(O2) ) obtained from in vivo estimation previously reported by other authors. (1) METHODS: Assuming that the cornea is a single homogeneous layer, the oxygen permeability through the cornea will be the same regardless of the type of lens that is available on it. The obtention of the real value of the maximum oxygen consumption rate Qc,max is very important because this parameter is directly related with the gradient pressure profile into the cornea and moreover, the real corneal oxygen consumption is influenced by both anterior and posterior oxygen fluxes. Our calculations give different values for the maximum oxygen consumption rate Qc,max, when different oxygen pressure values (high and low P(O2)) are considered at the interface cornea-tears film. Present results are relevant for the calculation on the partial pressure of oxygen, available at different depths into the corneal tissue behind contact lenses of different oxygen transmissibility. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Espana.

Quantifying the Consumptive Landscape in the Potomac Watershed Upstream From Washington DC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearns, M.; Zegre, N.; Fernandez, R.

2017-12-01

Some of the largest and fastest-growing eastern cities depend upon Appalachian headwaters for their fresh water. Today's relative abundance of water may be at risk: changes in climate and land use could alter the availability of surface water and human consumption could increase to meet the needs of a growing population and economy. Neither the supply of surface water nor the various withdrawals that support our population, irrigation, energy, and industry are distributed uniformly throughout our watersheds. This study correlates surface water withdrawals, consumptive use coefficients, and land-use/land-cover datasets to create a model for quantifying anthropogenic water consumption. The model suggests a method for downscaling and redistributing USGS county-level surface water withdrawals to 30 meter cells. Initially completed for the Potomac River watershed upstream from Washington DC's public supply intake, this approach could easily scale regionally or nationally. When combined with runoff estimates over the same landscape, the net-production or net-consumption of an area of interest may be calculated at high resolution. By better understanding the spatial relationship between hydrologic supply and demand, we can seek to improve the efficiency and security of our water resources.

Determination of irrigation pumpage in parts of Kearny and Finney Counties, southwestern Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindgren, R.J.

1982-01-01

Irrigation pumpage was determined for parts of Kearny and Finney Counties in Southwestern Kansas using crop-acreage data and consumptive, irrigation-water requirements. Irrigated acreages for 1974-80 were compiled for wheat, grain sorghum, corn, and alfalfa using records from the U.S. Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service. Consumptive-irrigation requirements were computed using a soil-moisture model. The model tabulated monthly soil-moisture and crop-water demand for various crops and computed the volume of irrigation water needed to maintain the available moisture at 50% for loamy soils or at 60% for sandy soils. Irrigated acres in the study area increased from 265,000 acres during 1974 to 321,000 acres during 1980. Irrigation pumpage increased from 584,000 acre-feet during 1974 to 738,000 acre-feet during 1980. Decreased consumptive-irrigation requirements during 1979 resulted in a comparatively small irrigation-pumpage estimate of 458,000 acre-feet. (USGS)

Adjustment for survey non‐representativeness using record‐linkage: refined estimates of alcohol consumption by deprivation in Scotland

PubMed Central

Gorman, Emma; Leyland, Alastair H.; McCartney, Gerry; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Rutherford, Lisa; Graham, Lesley; Robinson, Mark

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and aims Analytical approaches to addressing survey non‐participation bias typically use only demographic information to improve estimates. We applied a novel methodology which uses health information from data linkage to adjust for non‐representativeness. We illustrate the method by presenting adjusted alcohol consumption estimates for Scotland. Design Data on consenting respondents to the Scottish Health Surveys (SHeSs) 1995–2010 were linked confidentially to routinely collected hospital admission and mortality records. Synthetic observations representing non‐respondents were created using general population data. Multiple imputation was performed to compute adjusted alcohol estimates given a range of assumptions about the missing data. Adjusted estimates of mean weekly consumption were additionally calibrated to per‐capita alcohol sales data. Setting Scotland. Participants 13 936 male and 18 021 female respondents to the SHeSs 1995–2010, aged 20–64 years. Measurements Weekly alcohol consumption, non‐, binge‐ and problem‐drinking. Findings Initial adjustment for non‐response resulted in estimates of mean weekly consumption that were elevated by up to 17.8% [26.5 units (18.6–34.4)] compared with corrections based solely on socio‐demographic data [22.5 (17.7–27.3)]; other drinking behaviour estimates were little changed. Under more extreme assumptions the overall difference was up to 53%, and calibrating to sales estimates resulted in up to 88% difference. Increases were especially pronounced among males in deprived areas. Conclusions The use of routinely collected health data to reduce bias arising from survey non‐response resulted in higher alcohol consumption estimates among working‐age males in Scotland, with less impact for females. This new method of bias reduction can be generalized to other surveys to improve estimates of alternative harmful behaviours. PMID:28276110

Changes in the carbon footprint of Japanese households in an aging society.

PubMed

Shigetomi, Yosuke; Nansai, Keisuke; Kagawa, Shigemi; Tohno, Susumu

2014-06-03

As the aging and low birthrate trends continue in Japan, and as changes in the working population and consumption patterns occur, new factors are expected to have an impact on consumption-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We present the impacts of changes in the composition of Japanese households on GHG emission structures using current (2005) consumption-based accounting on the commodity sectors that are expected to require priority efforts for reducing emissions in 2035. This is done using the Global Link Input-Output model (GLIO) and domestic household consumption data and assuming that recent detailed consumption expenditures based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) will continue into the future. The results show that consumption-based GHG emissions derived from Japanese household consumption in 2035 are estimated to be 1061 Mt-CO2eq (4.2% lower than in 2005). This study can be used to reveal more information and as a resource in developing policies to more meticulously and efficiently reduce emissions based on emission and import rates for each domestic and overseas commodity supply chain.

Disparity between state fish consumption advisory systems for Methylmercury and US Environmental Protection Agency recommendations: a case study of the South Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Kimberly; Drenner, Ray W.; Chumchal, Matthew M.; Donato, David I.

2015-01-01

Fish consumption advisories are used to inform citizens in the United States about noncommercial game fish with hazardous levels of methylmercury (MeHg). The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) suggests issuing a fish consumption advisory when concentrations of MeHg in fish exceed a human health screening value of 300 ng/g. However, states have authority to develop their own systems for issuing fish consumption advisories for MeHg. Five states in the south central United States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas) issue advisories for the general human population when concentrations of MeHg exceed 700 ng/g to 1000 ng/g. The objective of the present study was to estimate the increase in fish consumption advisories that would occur if these states followed USEPA recommendations. The authors used the National Descriptive Model of Mercury in Fish to estimate the mercury concentrations in 5 size categories of largemouth bass–equivalent fish at 766 lentic and lotic sites within the 5 states. The authors found that states in this region have not issued site-specific fish consumption advisories for most of the water bodies that would have such advisories if USEPA recommendations were followed. One outcome of the present study may be to stimulate discussion between scientists and policy makers at the federal and state levels about appropriate screening values to protect the public from the health hazards of consuming MeHg-contaminated game fish.

Understanding trends in Australian alcohol consumption-an age-period-cohort model.

PubMed

Livingston, Michael; Raninen, Jonas; Slade, Tim; Swift, Wendy; Lloyd, Belinda; Dietze, Paul

2016-09-01

To decompose Australian trends in alcohol consumption into their age, period (survey year) and cohort (birth year/generation) components. In particular, we aimed to test whether recent declines in overall consumption have been influenced by reductions in drinking among recently born cohorts. Seven cross-sectional waves of the Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey (1995-2013). Age, period and cohort effects were estimated using a linear and logistic cross-classified random-effects models (CCREMs). Australia A total of 124 440 Australians (69 193 females and 55 257 males), aged 14-79 years. Whether or not respondents consumed alcohol in the 12 months prior to the survey and, for those who did, the estimated volume of pure alcohol consumed, derived using standard quantity-frequency survey questions. Controlling for age and period effects, there was significant variation in drinking participation and drinking volume by birth cohort. In particular, male cohorts born between the 1965 and 1974 and female cohorts born between 1955 and 1974 reported higher rates of drinking participation (P < 0.05), while the most recent cohorts (born in the 1990s) had lower rates of participation (P < 0.01). Among drinkers, the most recently born cohort also had sharply lower average consumption volumes than older cohorts for both men and women (P < 0.01). Recent birth cohorts (born between 1995 and 1999) in Australia report significantly lower rates of both drinking participation and drinking volume than previous cohorts, controlling for their age distribution and overall changes in population drinking. These findings suggest that the recent decline in alcohol consumption in Australia has been driven by declines in drinking among these recently born cohorts. These trends are consistent with international shifts in youth drinking. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

An Approach to Cluster EU Member States into Groups According to Pathways of Salmonella in the Farm-to-Consumption Chain for Pork Products.

PubMed

Vigre, Håkan; Domingues, Ana Rita Coutinho Calado; Pedersen, Ulrik Bo; Hald, Tine

2016-03-01

The aim of the project as the cluster analysis was to in part to develop a generic structured quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) model of human salmonellosis due to pork consumption in EU member states (MSs), and the objective of the cluster analysis was to group the EU MSs according to the relative contribution of different pathways of Salmonella in the farm-to-consumption chain of pork products. In the development of the model, by selecting a case study MS from each cluster the model was developed to represent different aspects of pig production, pork production, and consumption of pork products across EU states. The objective of the cluster analysis was to aggregate MSs into groups of countries with similar importance of different pathways of Salmonella in the farm-to-consumption chain using available, and where possible, universal register data related to the pork production and consumption in each country. Based on MS-specific information about distribution of (i) small and large farms, (ii) small and large slaughterhouses, (iii) amount of pork meat consumed, and (iv) amount of sausages consumed we used nonhierarchical and hierarchical cluster analysis to group the MSs. The cluster solutions were validated internally using statistic measures and externally by comparing the clustered MSs with an estimated human incidence of salmonellosis due to pork products in the MSs. Finally, each cluster was characterized qualitatively using the centroids of the clusters. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverage but Not Diet Soda Consumption Is Positively Associated with Progression of Insulin Resistance and Prediabetes.

PubMed

Ma, Jiantao; Jacques, Paul F; Meigs, James B; Fox, Caroline S; Rogers, Gail T; Smith, Caren E; Hruby, Adela; Saltzman, Edward; McKeown, Nicola M

2016-12-01

Previous studies have shown an inconsistent relation between habitual beverage consumption and insulin resistance and prediabetes. The objective of the present study was to test the hypothesis that the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), rather than diet soda, is associated with long-term progression of insulin resistance and the development of prediabetes. We analyzed the prospective association between cumulative mean consumption of SSBs or diet soda and incident prediabetes (n = 1685) identified across a median of 14 y of follow-up in participants [mean ± SD age: 51.9 ± 9.2 y; 59.6% women; mean ± SD body mass index (BMI; kg/m 2 ): 26.3 ± 4.4] of the Framingham Offspring cohort. The prospective association between beverage consumption and change in homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR; n = 2076) over ∼7 y was also analyzed. The cumulative mean consumption of SSBs and diet soda was estimated by using food-frequency questionnaires. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models and linear regression models were implemented to estimate the HRs of incident prediabetes and change in HOMA-IR, respectively. After adjustment for multiple potential confounders, including baseline BMI, we observed that SSB intake was positively associated with incident prediabetes (P-trend < 0.001); the highest SSB consumers (>3 servings/wk; median: 6 servings/wk) had a 46% higher risk of developing prediabetes than did the SSB nonconsumers (HR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.16, 1.83). Higher SSB intake was also associated with a greater increase in HOMA-IR (P-trend = 0.006). No prospective associations were observed between diet soda intake and risk of prediabetes (P-trend = 0.24) or changes in HOMA-IR (P-trend = 0.25). These associations were similar after additional adjustment for change in BMI. Regular SSB intake, but not diet soda intake, is associated with a greater increase in insulin resistance and a higher risk of developing prediabetes in a group of middle-aged adults. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverage but Not Diet Soda Consumption Is Positively Associated with Progression of Insulin Resistance and Prediabetes123

PubMed Central

Ma, Jiantao; Jacques, Paul F; Meigs, James B; Fox, Caroline S; Rogers, Gail T; Smith, Caren E; Hruby, Adela; Saltzman, Edward; McKeown, Nicola M

2016-01-01

Background: Previous studies have shown an inconsistent relation between habitual beverage consumption and insulin resistance and prediabetes. Objective: The objective of the present study was to test the hypothesis that the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), rather than diet soda, is associated with long-term progression of insulin resistance and the development of prediabetes. Methods: We analyzed the prospective association between cumulative mean consumption of SSBs or diet soda and incident prediabetes (n = 1685) identified across a median of 14 y of follow-up in participants [mean ± SD age: 51.9 ± 9.2 y; 59.6% women; mean ± SD body mass index (BMI; kg/m2): 26.3 ± 4.4] of the Framingham Offspring cohort. The prospective association between beverage consumption and change in homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR; n = 2076) over ∼7 y was also analyzed. The cumulative mean consumption of SSBs and diet soda was estimated by using food-frequency questionnaires. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models and linear regression models were implemented to estimate the HRs of incident prediabetes and change in HOMA-IR, respectively. Results: After adjustment for multiple potential confounders, including baseline BMI, we observed that SSB intake was positively associated with incident prediabetes (P-trend < 0.001); the highest SSB consumers (>3 servings/wk; median: 6 servings/wk) had a 46% higher risk of developing prediabetes than did the SSB nonconsumers (HR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.16, 1.83). Higher SSB intake was also associated with a greater increase in HOMA-IR (P-trend = 0.006). No prospective associations were observed between diet soda intake and risk of prediabetes (P-trend = 0.24) or changes in HOMA-IR (P-trend = 0.25). These associations were similar after additional adjustment for change in BMI. Conclusion: Regular SSB intake, but not diet soda intake, is associated with a greater increase in insulin resistance and a higher risk of developing prediabetes in a group of middle-aged adults. PMID:27934644

Autotune Calibrates Models to Building Use Data

ScienceCinema

None

2018-01-16

Models of existing buildings are currently unreliable unless calibrated manually by a skilled professional. Autotune, as the name implies, automates this process by calibrating the model of an existing building to measured data, and is now available as open source software. This enables private businesses to incorporate Autotune into their products so that their customers can more effectively estimate cost savings of reduced energy consumption measures in existing buildings.

Tracking Biases: An Update to the Validity and Reliability of Alcohol Retail Sales Data for Estimating Population Consumption in Scotland.

PubMed

Henderson, Audrey; Robinson, Mark; McAdams, Rachel; McCartney, Gerry; Beeston, Clare

2016-05-01

To highlight the importance of monitoring biases when using retail sales data to estimate population alcohol consumption. Previously, we identified and where possible quantified sources of bias that may lead to under- or overestimation of alcohol consumption in Scotland. Here, we update findings by using more recent data and by quantifying emergent biases. Underestimation resulting from the net effect of biases on population consumption in Scotland increased from -4% in 2010 to -7% in 2013. Biases that might impact on the validity and reliability of sales data when estimating population consumption should be routinely monitored and updated. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press.

Validation study of the Tanaka and Kawasaki equations to estimate the daily sodium excretion by a spot urine sample.

PubMed

Mill, José Geraldo; Rodrigues, Sérgio Lamêgo; Baldo, Marcelo Perim; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Szwarcwald, Celia Landmann

2015-12-01

To validate Tanaka and Kawasaki's formulas to calculate the salt intake by the sodium/creatinine ratio in spot of urine. Two hundred and seventy two adults (20 - 69 years old; 52.6% women) with 24 h urine collection and two urinary spots collected on the same day (while fasting - spot 1 - or not fasting - spot 2). Anthropometry, blood pressure and fasting blood were measured on the same day. The analysis of agreement between salt consumption measured in the 24 h urine test and urinary spots were determined by the Pearson's correlation (r) and the Bland & Altman method. The mean salt consumption measured by the 24 h sodium excretion was 10.4 ± 5.3 g/day. The correlation between the measured 24 h sodium excretion and the estimation based on spots 1 and 2, respectively, was only moderated according to Tanaka (r = 0.51 and r = 0.55; p < 0.001) and to Kawasaki (r = 0.52 and r = 0.54; p < 0.001). We observed an increasing underestimation of salt consumption by Tanaka to increasing salt consumption and conversely, an overestimation of consumption by the Kawasaki formula. The estimation of salt consumption (difference between measured and calculated salt consumption lower than 1 g/day) was adequate only when the consumption was between 9 - 12 g/day (Tanaka) and 12 - 18 g/day (Kawasaki). Spot urine sampling is adequate to estimate salt consumption only among individuals with an actual consumption near the population mean.

Economic and public health impact of 2007-2010 tobacco tax increases in Ukraine.

PubMed

Ross, Hana; Stoklosa, Michal; Krasovsky, Konstantin

2012-07-01

To evaluate the impact of the dynamic 2007-2010 tobacco tax policy in Ukraine on cigarette prices, cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenue and the tobacco industry's price strategy. Using data on cigarette sales, cigarette prices, income and tobacco control policies, price elasticities of cigarette demand in Ukraine were estimated using two methods. Annual data were used to generate point price elasticity estimates, while monthly data were used in a two-step Engle-Granger procedure. The point price elasticity estimate is data sensitive and ranges from -0.11 to -0.62, centring around -0.32. The regression model estimates a long-run price elasticity of -0.28. Cigarette consumption fell by 13% in 2009 and 15% in 2010 while the tax revenue increased by US$700 million and by US$500 million in 2009 and 2010, respectively, compared to the previous year. Tax increases have changed the tobacco industry's price strategy from one of shielding consumers from the impact of smaller tax hikes in 2007-2008, to one of increasing industry net-of-tax prices, after recent, larger tax increases. The higher real tobacco excise taxes of 2009 and 2010 have significantly reduced tobacco consumption in Ukraine, resulting in encouraging public health and fiscal gains. It will be important for cigarette prices/taxes to keep pace with inflation and income growth for this impact to be sustained.

Dynamics of Metabolism and Decision Making During Alcohol Consumption: Modeling and Analysis.

PubMed

Giraldo, Luis Felipe; Passino, Kevin M; Clapp, John D; Ruderman, Danielle

2017-11-01

Heavy alcohol consumption is considered an important public health issue in the United States as over 88 000 people die every year from alcohol-related causes. Research is being conducted to understand the etiology of alcohol consumption and to develop strategies to decrease high-risk consumption and its consequences, but there are still important gaps in determining the main factors that influence the consumption behaviors throughout the drinking event. There is a need for methodologies that allow us not only to identify such factors but also to have a comprehensive understanding of how they are connected and how they affect the dynamical evolution of a drinking event. In this paper, we use previous empirical findings from laboratory and field studies to build a mathematical model of the blood alcohol concentration dynamics in individuals that are in drinking events. We characterize these dynamics as the result of the interaction between a decision-making system and the metabolic process for alcohol. We provide a model of the metabolic process for arbitrary alcohol intake patterns and a characterization of the mechanisms that drive the decision-making process of a drinker during the drinking event. We use computational simulations and Lyapunov stability theory to analyze the effects of the parameters of the model on the blood alcohol concentration dynamics that are characterized. Also, we propose a methodology to inform the model using data collected in situ and to make estimations that provide additional information to the analysis. We show how this model allows us to analyze and predict previously observed behaviors, to design new approaches for the collection of data that improves the construction of the model, and help with the design of interventions.

A bioenergetic model for zebrafish Danio rerio (Hamilton)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chizinski, C.J.; Sharma, Bibek; Pope, K.L.; Patino, R.

2008-01-01

A bioenergetics model was developed from observed consumption, respiration and growth rates for zebrafish Danio rerio across a range (18-32?? C) of water temperatures, and evaluated with a 50 day laboratory trial at 28?? C. No significant bias in variable estimates was found during the validation trial; namely, predicted zebrafish mass generally agreed with observed mass. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Financial risk protection from social health insurance.

PubMed

Barnes, Kayleigh; Mukherji, Arnab; Mullen, Patrick; Sood, Neeraj

2017-09-01

This paper estimates the impact of social health insurance on financial risk by utilizing data from a natural experiment created by the phased roll-out of a social health insurance program for the poor in India. We estimate the distributional impact of insurance on of out-of-pocket costs and incorporate these results with a stylized expected utility model to compute associated welfare effects. We adjust the standard model, accounting for conditions of developing countries by incorporating consumption floors, informal borrowing, and asset selling which allow us to separate the value of financial risk reduction from consumption smoothing and asset protection. Results show that insurance reduces out-of-pocket costs, particularly in higher quantiles of the distribution. We find reductions in the frequency and amount of money borrowed for health reasons. Finally, we find that the value of financial risk reduction outweighs total per household costs of the insurance program by two to five times. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Consumption dynamics of the adult piscivorous fish community in Spirit Lake, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, H.; Pierce, C.L.; Larscheid, J.G.

2004-01-01

At Spirit Lake, one of Iowa's most important fisheries, walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) is one of the most popular species with anglers. Despite a century of walleye stocking and management in Spirit Lake, walleye growth rate, size structure, and angler harvest continue to decline. Our purpose was to determine the magnitude and dynamics of walleye population consumption relative to those of other piscivorous species in Spirit Lake, which would allow managers to judge the feasibility of increasing the abundance, growth rate, and size structure of the walleye population. We quantified food consumption by the adult piscivorous fish community in Spirit Lake over a 3-year period. Data on population dynamics, diet, energy density, and water temperature from 1995 to 1997 were used in bioenergetics models to estimate total consumption by walleye, yellow perch Perca flavescens, smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu, largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides, black crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus, and northern pike Esox lucius. Estimated annual consumption by the piscivorous community varied roughly fourfold, ranging from 154,752 kg in 1995 to 662,776 kg in 1997. Walleyes dominated total consumption, accounting for 68, 73, and 90% (1995-1997, respectively) of total food consumption. Walleyes were also the dominant consumers of fish, accounting for 76, 86, and 97% of piscivorous consumption; yellow perch followed, accounting for 16% of piscivorous consumption in 1995 and 12% in 1996. Yellow perch were the predominant fish prey species in all 3 years, accounting for 68, 52, and 36% of the total prey consumed. Natural reproduction is weak, so high walleye densities are maintained by intensive stocking. Walleye stocking drives piscivorous consumption in Spirit Lake, and yearly variation in the cannibalism of stocked walleye fry may be an important determinant of walleye year-class strength and angler success. Reducing walleye stocking intensity, varying stocking intensity from year to year, and attempting to match stocking intensity with the abundance of prey species other than walleye may improve the walleye fishery in Spirit Lake.

Assessment of Energy Efficiency Improvement in the United States Petroleum Refining Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrow, William R.; Marano, John; Sathaye, Jayant

2013-02-01

Adoption of efficient process technologies is an important approach to reducing CO 2 emissions, in particular those associated with combustion. In many cases, implementing energy efficiency measures is among the most cost-effective approaches that any refiner can take, improving productivity while reducing emissions. Therefore, careful analysis of the options and costs associated with efficiency measures is required to establish sound carbon policies addressing global climate change, and is the primary focus of LBNL’s current petroleum refining sector analysis for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The analysis is aimed at identifying energy efficiency-related measures and developing energy abatement supply curves andmore » CO 2 emissions reduction potential for the U.S. refining industry. A refinery model has been developed for this purpose that is a notional aggregation of the U.S. petroleum refining sector. It consists of twelve processing units and account s for the additional energy requirements from steam generation, hydrogen production and water utilities required by each of the twelve processing units. The model is carbon and energy balanced such that crud e oil inputs and major refinery sector outputs (fuels) are benchmarked to 2010 data. Estimates of the current penetration for the identified energy efficiency measures benchmark the energy requirements to those reported in U.S. DOE 2010 data. The remaining energy efficiency potential for each of the measures is estimated and compared to U.S. DOE fuel prices resulting in estimates of cost- effective energy efficiency opportunities for each of the twelve major processes. A combined cost of conserved energy supply curve is also presented along with the CO 2 emissions abatement opportunities that exist in the U.S. petroleum refinery sector. Roughly 1,200 PJ per year of primary fuels savings and close to 500 GWh per y ear of electricity savings are potentially cost-effective given U.S. DOE fuel price forecasts. This represents roughly 70 million metric tonnes of CO 2 emission reductions assuming 2010 emissions factor for grid electricity. Energy efficiency measures resulting in an additional 400 PJ per year of primary fuels savings and close to 1,700 GWh per year of electricity savings, and an associated 24 million metric tonnes of CO 2 emission reductions are not cost-effective given the same assumption with respect to fuel prices and electricity emissions factors. Compared to the modeled energy requirements for the U.S. petroleum refining sector, the cost effective potential represents a 40% reduction in fuel consumption and a 2% reduction in electricity consumption. The non-cost-effective potential represents an additional 13% reduction in fuel consumption and an additional 7% reduction in electricity consumption. The relative energy reduction potentials are mu ch higher for fuel consumption than electricity consumption largely in part because fuel is the primary energy consumption type in the refineries. Moreover, many cost effective fuel savings measures would increase electricity consumption. The model also has the potential to be used to examine the costs and benefits of the other CO 2 mitigation options, such as combined heat and power (CHP), carbon capture, and the potential introduction of biomass feedstocks. However, these options are not addressed in this report as this report is focused on developing the modeling methodology and assessing fuels savings measures. These opportunities to further reduce refinery sector CO 2 emissions and are recommended for further research and analysis.« less

Surveying alcohol and other drug use through telephone sampling: a comparison of landline and mobile phone samples.

PubMed

Livingston, Michael; Dietze, Paul; Ferris, Jason; Pennay, Darren; Hayes, Linda; Lenton, Simon

2013-03-16

Telephone surveys based on samples of landline telephone numbers are widely used to measure the prevalence of health risk behaviours such as smoking, drug use and alcohol consumption. An increasing number of households are relying solely on mobile telephones, creating a potential bias for population estimates derived from landline-based sampling frames which do not incorporate mobile phone numbers. Studies in the US have identified significant differences between landline and mobile telephone users in smoking and alcohol consumption, but there has been little work in other settings or focussed on illicit drugs. This study examined Australian prevalence estimates of cannabis use, tobacco smoking and risky alcohol consumption based on samples selected using a dual-frame (mobile and landline) approach. Respondents from the landline sample were compared both to the overall mobile sample (including respondents who had access to a landline) and specifically to respondents who lived in mobile-only households. Bivariate comparisons were complemented with multivariate logistic regression models, controlling for the effects of basic demographic variables. The landline sample reported much lower prevalence of tobacco use, cannabis use and alcohol consumption than the mobile samples. Once demographic variables were adjusted for, there were no significant differences between the landline and mobile respondents on any of the alcohol measures examined. In contrast, the mobile samples had significantly higher rates of cannabis and tobacco use, even after adjustment. Weighted estimates from the dual-frame sample were generally higher than the landline sample across all substances, but only significantly higher for tobacco use. Landline telephone surveys in Australia are likely to substantially underestimate the prevalence of tobacco smoking by excluding potential respondents who live in mobile-only households. In contrast, estimates of alcohol consumption and cannabis use from landline surveys are likely to be broadly accurate, once basic demographic weighting is undertaken.

Ecosystem water imbalances created during ecological restoration by afforestation in China, and lessons for other developing countries.

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Zhang, Junze; Chen, Li; Zhao, Tingyang

2016-12-01

Land degradation is a global environmental problem that jeopardizes human safety and socioeconomic development. To alleviate severe soil erosion and desertification due to deforestation and overgrazing, China has implemented historically unprecedented large-scale afforestation. However, few studies have accounted for the resulting imbalance between water supply (primarily precipitation) and water consumption (evapotranspiration), which will affect ecosystem health and socioeconomic development. We compared the water balance results between restoration by means of afforestation and restoration using the potential natural vegetation to guide future ecological restoration planning and environmental policy development. Based on estimates of water consumption from seven evapotranspiration models, we discuss the consequences for water security using data obtained since 1952 under China's large-scale afforestation program. The models estimated that afforestation will increase water consumption by 559-2354 m 3 /ha annually compared with natural vegetation. Although afforestation is a potentially important approach for environmental restoration, China's current policy has not been tailored to local precipitation conditions, and will have therefore exacerbated water shortages and decrease the ability to achieve environmental policy goals. Our analysis shows how, both in China and around the world, future ecological restoration planning must account for the water balance to ensure effective and sustainable environmental restoration policy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Exploring relationships between building and transportation energy use of residents in U.S. metropolitan regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pede, Timothy J.

There is much potential to decrease energy consumption in the U.S. by encouraging compact, centralized development. Although many studies have examined the extent to which built environment and demographic factors are related to household energy use, few have considered both building and transportation energy together. We hypothesized that residents living further from city centers, or urban cores, consume more energy for both purposes than their inner city counterparts, resulting in a direct relationship between building and transportation energy usage. This hypothesis was tested with two case studies. The first focused on New York City. Annual building energy per unit of parcels, or tax lots, containing large multi-family structures was compared to the daily transportation energy use per household of traffic analysis zones (TAZs) (estimated with a regional travel demand model). Transportation energy showed a strong spatial pattern, with distance to urban core explaining 63% of variation in consumption. Building energy use was randomly distributed, resulting in a weak negative correlation with transportation energy. However, both correlation with distance to urban core and transportation energy became significant and positive when portion of detached single-family units for TAZs was used as a proxy for building energy. Structural equation models (SEMs) revealed a direct relationship between log lot depth and both uses of energy, and inverse relationship between portion of attached housing units and transportation energy. This supports the notion that sprawling development increases both the building and transportation energy consumption of households. For the second analysis, annual building and automobile energy use per household were estimated for block groups across the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan regions with Esri Consumer Expenditure Data. Both forms of energy consumption per household were lowest in inner cities and increased at greater distances from urban cores. Although there may be some error in estimates from modeled expenditure data, characteristics associated with lower energy use, such as portion of attached housing units and commuters that utilize transit or pedestrian modes, were negatively correlated with distance to urban core. Overall, this work suggests there are spatial patterns to household energy consumption, with households further from urban cores using more building and transportation energy. There is the greatest gain in efficiency to be had by suburban residents.

Using RAQMS Chemical Transport Model, Aircraft In-situ and Satellite Data to Verify Ground-based Biomass Burning Emissions from the Extreme Fire Event in Boreal Alaska 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Pierce, R. B.; Al-Saadi, J. A.; Alvarado, E.; Sandberg, D. V.; Ottmar, R. D.; Kittaka, C.; McMillian, W. W.; Sachse, G. W.; Warner, J. X.; Szykman, J. J.

2006-12-01

Current climate change scenarios are predicted to result in increased biomass burning, particularly in boreal regions. Biomass burning events feedback to the climate system by altering albedo (affecting the energy balance) and by direct and indirect fire emissions. Additionally, fire emissions influence air quality and human health downwind of burning. Biomass burning emission estimates are difficult to quantify in near-real-time and accurate estimates are useful for large-scale chemical transport models, which could be used to warn the public of potential health risks and for climate modeling. In this talk, we describe a methodology to quantify emissions, validate those emission estimates, transport the emissions and verify the resultant CO plume 100's of kilometers from the fire events using aircraft in-situ and satellite data. First, we developed carbon consumption estimates that are specifically designed for near-real-time use in conjunction with satellite-derived fire data for regional- to global-chemical transport models. Large-scale carbon consumption estimates are derived for 10 ecozones across North America and each zone contains 3 classes of severity. The estimates range is from a low severity 3.11 t C ha-1 estimate from the Western Taiga Shield to a high severity 59.83 t C ha-1 estimate from the Boreal Cordillera. These estimates are validated using extensive supplementary ground-based Alaskan data. Then, the RAQMS chemical transport model ingests these data and transports CO from the Alaskan 2004 fires across North America, where results are compared with in-situ flight CO data measured during INTEX-A and satellite-based CO data (AIRS and MOPITT). Ground-based CO is 6 to 14 times greater than the typically modeled fire climatology. RAQMS often overestimates CO in the biomass plumes in comparison to satellite- derived CO data and we suspect this may be due to the satellite instruments low sensitivity to planetary boundary layer CO, which is prevalent in the near field plumes, and also the assumption of high-severity fires throughout the burning season. RAQMS underestimates biomass CO in comparison to in-situ CO data (146 out of 148 ascents and descents), and we suspect this may be due to RAQMS difficulty in defining narrow fire plumes due to the 1.4° x 1.4° resolution.

Price elasticities of alcohol demand: evidence from Russia.

PubMed

Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Roberts, Bayard; McKee, Martin

2015-03-01

In this paper, we estimate price elasticities of demand of several types of alcoholic drinks, using 14 rounds of data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey-HSE, collected from 1994 until 2009. We deal with potential confounding problems by taking advantage of a large number of control variables, as well as by estimating community fixed effect models. All in all, although alcohol prices do appear to influence consumption behaviour in Russia, in most cases the size of effect is modest. The finding that two particularly problematic drinks-cheap vodka and fortified wine-are substitute goods also suggests that increasing their prices may not lead to smaller alcohol consumption. Therefore, any alcohol pricing policies in Russia must be supplemented with other measures, such as restrictions on numbers of sales outlets or their opening times.

Influence of fire frequency on carbon consumption in Alaskan blackspruce forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, E.; Kasischke, E. S.

2014-12-01

Increasing temperatures and drier conditions within the boreal forests of Alaska have resulted in increases in burned area and fire frequency, which alter carbon storage and emissions. In particular, analyses of satellite remote sensing data showed that >20% of the area impacted by fires in interior Alaska occurred in areas that had previously burned since 1950 (e.g., short to intermediate interval fires). Field studies showed that in immature black spruce forests ~ 35 to 55 years old organic layers experienced deep burning regardless of topographic position or seasonality of burning, factors that control depth of burning in mature black spruce forests. Here, refinements were made to a carbon consumption model to account for variations in fuel loads and fraction of carbon consumed associated with fire frequency based on quantifying burned area in recently burned sites using satellite imagery. An immature black spruce (Picea mariana) fuel type (including stands of ~0-50 years) was developed which contains new ground-layer carbon consumption values in order to more accurately account for differences between various age classes of black spruce forest. Both versions of the model were used to assess carbon consumption during 100 fire events (over 4.4 x 10^6 ha of burned area) from two recent ultra-large fire years (2004 and 2005). Using the improved model to better attribute fuel type and consumption resulted in higher ground-layer carbon consumption (4.9% in 2004 and 6.8% in 2005) than previously estimated. These adjustments in ground-layer burning resulted in total carbon consumption within 2004 and 2005 of 63.5 and 42.0 Tg of carbon, respectively. Results from this research could be incorporated into larger scale modeling efforts to better assess changes in the climate-fire-vegetation dynamics in interior Alaskan boreal forests, and to understand the impacts of these changes on carbon consumption and emissions.

Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karstensen, J.; Peters, G. P.; Andrew, R. M.

2015-05-01

Several studies have connected emissions of greenhouse gases to economic and trade data to quantify the causal chain from consumption to emissions and climate change. These studies usually combine data and models originating from different sources, making it difficult to estimate uncertainties along the entire causal chain. We estimate uncertainties in economic data, multi-pollutant emission statistics, and metric parameters, and use Monte Carlo analysis to quantify contributions to uncertainty and to determine how uncertainty propagates to estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions for the year 2007. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants included, the metric and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are largely dominated by the climate sensitivity and the parameters associated with the warming effects of CO2. Based on our assumptions, which exclude correlations in the economic data, the uncertainty in the economic data appears to have a relatively small impact on uncertainty at the national level in comparison to emissions and metric uncertainty. Much higher uncertainties are found at the sectoral level. Our results suggest that consumption-based national emissions are not significantly more uncertain than the corresponding production-based emissions since the largest uncertainties are due to metric and emissions which affect both perspectives equally. The two perspectives exhibit different sectoral uncertainties, due to changes of pollutant compositions. We find global sectoral consumption uncertainties in the range of ±10 to ±27 % using the Global Temperature Potential with a 50-year time horizon, with metric uncertainties dominating. National-level uncertainties are similar in both perspectives due to the dominance of CO2 over other pollutants. The consumption emissions of the top 10 emitting regions have a broad uncertainty range of ±9 to ±25 %, with metric and emission uncertainties contributing similarly. The absolute global temperature potential (AGTP) with a 50-year time horizon has much higher uncertainties, with considerable uncertainty overlap for regions and sectors, indicating that the ranking of countries is uncertain.

Sociodemographic differences in fast food price sensitivity.

PubMed

Meyer, Katie A; Guilkey, David K; Ng, Shu Wen; Duffey, Kiyah J; Popkin, Barry M; Kiefe, Catarina I; Steffen, Lyn M; Shikany, James M; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2014-03-01

Fiscal food policies (eg, taxation) are increasingly proposed to improve population-level health, but their impact on health disparities is unknown. To estimate subgroup-specific effects of fast food price changes on fast food consumption and cardiometabolic outcomes. Twenty-year follow-up (5 examinations) in a biracial US prospective cohort: Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) (1985/1986-2005/2006, baseline N = 5115). Participants were aged 18 to 30 years at baseline; design indicated equal recruitment by race (black vs white), educational attainment, age, and sex. Community-level price data from the Council for Community and Economic Research were temporally and geographically linked to study participants' home address at each examination. Participant-reported number of fast food eating occasions per week, body mass index (BMI), and homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) from fasting glucose and insulin concentrations. Covariates included individual-level and community-level social and demographic factors. In repeated measures regression analysis, multivariable-adjusted associations between fast food price and consumption were nonlinear (quadratic, P < .001), with significant inverse estimated effects on consumption at higher prices; estimates varied according to race (interaction P = .04), income (P = .07), and education (P = .03). At the 10th percentile of price ($1.25/serving), blacks and whites had mean fast food consumption frequency of 2.20 (95% CI, 2.07-2.33) and 1.55 (1.45-1.65) times/wk, respectively, whereas at the 90th percentile of price ($1.53/serving), respective mean consumption estimates were 1.86 (1.75-1.97) and 1.50 (1.41-1.59) times/wk. We observed differential price effects on HOMA-IR (inverse for lower educational status only [interaction P = .005] and at middle income only [interaction P = .02]) and BMI (inverse for blacks, less education, and middle income; positive for whites, more education, and high income [all interaction P < .001]). We found greater fast food price sensitivity on fast food consumption and insulin resistance among sociodemographic groups that have a disproportionate burden of chronic disease. Our findings have implications for fiscal policy, particularly with respect to possible effects of fast food taxes among populations with diet-related health disparities.

Wholesale data for surveillance of Australian Aboriginal tobacco consumption in the Northern Territory.

PubMed

Thomas, David P; Fitz, Joseph W; Johnston, Vanessa; Townsend, Joanne; Kneebone, Warwick

2011-07-01

Effective monitoring of trends in tobacco use is an essential element of tobacco control policy. Monitoring tobacco consumption using tobacco wholesale data has advantages over other methods of surveillance. In the present work, a research project that monitored tobacco consumption in 25 remote Aboriginal communities and its translation to a policy to implement this monitoring routinely in the entire Northern Territory of Australia is described. Tobacco consumption and trends were estimated using wholesale (or occasionally sales) data from all retail outlets in 25 remote Aboriginal communities. Self-reported consumption was estimated from the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey in 2008. Local consumption results were fed back in posters to local organisations and health staff. Estimates of consumption from wholesale data and self-report were similar (6.8 and 6.7 cigarettes/day/person aged 15 and over). Consumption was higher in the tropical Top End than in arid Central Australia, and 24% of tobacco was consumed as loose tobacco. The overall trend in monthly consumption was not significantly different from 0. Local communities could be ranked by their local trends in monthly consumption. Monitoring tobacco consumption using wholesale tobacco data is a practical and unobtrusive surveillance method that is being introduced as a new condition of tobacco retail licenses in the Northern Territory of Australia. It overcomes some problems with consumption estimates from routine surveys, enables rapid feedback and use of results and is particularly well suited for hard-to-reach discrete populations, such as remote Aboriginal communities in Australia. It has already been used to evaluate the impact of local tobacco control activities.

Estimates of Dietary Exposure to Bisphenol A (BPA) from Light Metal Packaging using Food Consumption and Packaging usage Data: A Refined Deterministic Approach and a Fully Probabilistic (FACET) Approach

PubMed Central

Oldring, P.K.T.; Castle, L.; O'Mahony, C.; Dixon, J.

2013-01-01

The FACET tool is a probabilistic model to estimate exposure to chemicals in foodstuffs, originating from flavours, additives and food contact materials. This paper demonstrates the use of the FACET tool to estimate exposure to BPA (bisphenol A) from light metal packaging. For exposure to migrants from food packaging, FACET uses industry-supplied data on the occurrence of substances in the packaging, their concentrations and construction of the packaging, which were combined with data from a market research organisation and food consumption data supplied by national database managers. To illustrate the principles, UK packaging data were used together with consumption data from the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) dietary survey for 19–64 year olds for a refined deterministic verification. The UK data were chosen mainly because the consumption surveys are detailed, data for UK packaging at a detailed level were available and, arguably, the UK population is composed of high consumers of packaged foodstuffs. Exposures were run for each food category that could give rise to BPA from light metal packaging. Consumer loyalty to a particular type of packaging, commonly referred to as packaging loyalty, was set. The BPA extraction levels used for the 15 types of coating chemistries that could release BPA were in the range of 0.00005–0.012 mg dm−2. The estimates of exposure to BPA using FACET for the total diet were 0.0098 (mean) and 0.0466 (97.5th percentile) mg/person/day, corresponding to 0.00013 (mean) and 0.00059 (97.5th percentile) mg kg−1 body weight day−1 for consumers of foods packed in light metal packaging. This is well below the current EFSA (and other recognised bodies) TDI of 0.05 mg kg−1 body weight day. These probabilistic estimates were compared with estimates using a refined deterministic approach drawing on the same input data. The results from FACET for the mean, 95th and 97.5th percentile exposures to BPA lay between the lowest and the highest estimates from the refined deterministic calculations. Since this should be the case, for a fully probabilistic compared with a deterministic approach, it is concluded that the FACET tool has been verified in this example. A recent EFSA draft opinion on exposure to BPA from different sources showed that canned foods were a major contributor and compared results from various models, including those from FACET. The results from FACET were overall conservative. PMID:24405320

Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

PubMed

Smith, Matthew R; Micha, Renata; Golden, Christopher D; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Myers, Samuel S

2016-01-01

Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent estimates by the USDA for historical US nutrition and find very good agreement for 21 of 23 nutrients, though sodium and dietary fiber will require further improvement.

Assessment of food intake input distributions for use in probabilistic exposure assessments of food additives.

PubMed

Gilsenan, M B; Lambe, J; Gibney, M J

2003-11-01

A key component of a food chemical exposure assessment using probabilistic analysis is the selection of the most appropriate input distribution to represent exposure variables. The study explored the type of parametric distribution that could be used to model variability in food consumption data likely to be included in a probabilistic exposure assessment of food additives. The goodness-of-fit of a range of continuous distributions to observed data of 22 food categories expressed as average daily intakes among consumers from the North-South Ireland Food Consumption Survey was assessed using the BestFit distribution fitting program. The lognormal distribution was most commonly accepted as a plausible parametric distribution to represent food consumption data when food intakes were expressed as absolute intakes (16/22 foods) and as intakes per kg body weight (18/22 foods). Results from goodness-of-fit tests were accompanied by lognormal probability plots for a number of food categories. The influence on food additive intake of using a lognormal distribution to model food consumption input data was assessed by comparing modelled intake estimates with observed intakes. Results from the present study advise some level of caution about the use of a lognormal distribution as a mode of input for food consumption data in probabilistic food additive exposure assessments and the results highlight the need for further research in this area.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Natural and Processed Cheeses

PubMed Central

Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Lee, Jeeyeon; Ha, Jimyeong; Yoon, Yohan

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10−11) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α1 = 1, α2 = 91; α1 = 1, α2 = 309)×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be −2.35 and −2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10−14 and 3.58×10−14, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by consumption cheese is low, and it can be used to establish microbial criteria for C. perfringens on natural and processed cheeses. PMID:26954204

The effect of tobacco consumption and body mass index on complications and hospital stay after inguinal hernia surgery.

PubMed

Lindström, D; Sadr Azodi, O; Bellocco, R; Wladis, A; Linder, S; Adami, J

2007-04-01

The extent to which lifestyle factors such as tobacco consumption and obesity affect the outcome after inguinal hernia surgery has been poorly studied. This study was undertaken to assess the effect of smoking, smokeless tobacco consumption and obesity on postoperative complications after inguinal hernia surgery. The second aim was to evaluate the effect of tobacco consumption and obesity on the length of hospital stay. A cohort of 12,697 Swedish construction workers with prospectively collected exposure data on tobacco consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 1968 onward were linked to the Swedish inpatient register. Information on inguinal hernia procedures was collected from the inpatient register. Any postoperative complication occurring within 30 days was registered. In addition to this, the length of hospitalization was calculated. The risk of postoperative complications due to tobacco exposure and BMI was estimated using a multiple logistic regression model and the length of hospital stay was estimated in a multiple linear regression model. After adjusting for the other covariates in the multivariate analysis, current smokers had a 34% (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.04, 1.72) increased risk of postoperative complications compared to never smokers. Use of "Swedish oral moist snuff" (snus) and pack-years of tobacco smoking were not found to be significantly associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. BMI was found to be significantly associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications (P = 0.04). This effect was mediated by the underweighted group (OR 2.94; 95% CI 1.15, 7.51). In a multivariable model, increased BMI was also found to be significantly associated with an increased mean length of hospital stay (P < 0.001). There was no statistically significant association between smoking or using snus, and the mean length of hospitalization after adjusting for the other covariates in the model. Smoking increases the risk of postoperative complications even in minor surgery such as inguinal hernia procedures. Obesity increases hospitalization after inguinal hernia surgery. The Swedish version of oral moist tobacco, snus, does not seem to affect the complication rate after hernia surgery at all.

Water use, ground-water recharge and availability, and quality of water in the Greenwich area, Fairfield County, Connecticut and Westchester County, New York, 2000-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mullaney, John R.

2004-01-01

Ground-water budgets were developed for 32 small basin-based zones in the Greenwich area of southwestern Connecticut, where crystalline-bedrock aquifers supply private wells, to determine the status of residential ground-water consumption relative to rates of ground-water recharge and discharge. Estimated residential ground-water withdrawals for small basins (averaging 1.7 square miles (mi2)) ranged from 0 to 0.16 million gallons per day per square mile (Mgal/d/mi2). To develop these budgets, residential ground-water withdrawals were estimated using multiple-linear regression models that relate water use from public water supply to data on residential property characteristics. Average daily water use of households with public water supply ranged from 219 to 1,082 gallons per day (gal/d). A steady-state finite-difference ground-water- flow model was developed to track water budgets, and to estimate optimal values for hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (0.05 feet per day) and recharge to the overlying till deposits (6.9 inches) using nonlinear regression. Estimated recharge rates to the small basins ranged from 3.6 to 7.5 inches per year (in/yr) and relate to the percentage of the basin underlain by coarse- grained glacial stratified deposits. Recharge was not applied to impervious areas to account for the effects of urbanization. Net residential ground-water consumption was estimated as ground-water withdrawals increased during the growing season, and ranged from 0 to 0.9 in/yr. Long-term average stream base flows simulated by the ground-water-flow model were compared to calculated values of average base flow and low flow to determine if base flow was substantially reduced in any of the basins studied. Three of the 32 basins studied had simulated base flows less than 3 in/yr, as a result of either ground-water withdrawals or reduced recharge due to urbanization. A water-availability criteria of the difference between the 30-day 2-year low flow and the recharge rate for each basin was explored as a method to rate the status of water consumption in each basin. Water consumption ranged from 0 to 14.3 percent of available water based on this criteria for the 32 basins studied. Base-flow water quality was related to the amount of urbanized area in each basin sampled. Concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus, chloride, indicator bacteria, and the number of pesticide detections increased with basin urbanization, which ranged from 18 to 63 percent of basin area.

Projecting the Water and Electric Consumption of Polytechnic University of the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, Jackie D.; Mercado, Joseph; Bautista, Lincoln A.; Baccay, Edcon B.

2017-03-01

This study investigates water and electric consumption in Polytechnic University of the Philippines - Sta. Mesa using a time series analysis. The researchers analyzed the water and electric usage separately. Electric consumption was examined in terms of pesos and kilowatt-hour, while water consumption was analyzed in pesos and cubic meter. The data are gathered from the university limited only from January 2009 to July 2015 in a monthly based record. The aim is to forecast the water and electric usage of the university for the years 2016 and 2017. There are two main statistical treatments that the researchers conducted to be able to formulate mathematical models that can estimate the water and electric consumption of the said school. Using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), electric usage was forecasted in peso and kilowatt-hour, and water usage in peso and cubic meter. Moreover, the predicted values of the consumptions are compared to the actual values using Paired T-test to examine whether there is a significant difference. Forecasting accurately the water and electric consumption would be helpful to manage the budget allotted for the water and electric consumption of PUP - Sta. Mesa for the next two years.

Is response to price equal for those with higher alcohol consumption?

PubMed

Byrnes, Joshua; Shakeshaft, Anthony; Petrie, Dennis; Doran, Christopher M

2016-01-01

To determine if taxation policies that increase the price of alcohol differentially reduce alcohol consumption for heavy drinkers in Australia. A two-part demand model for alcohol consumption is used to determine the price elasticity of alcohol. Quantile regression is used to determine the price elasticity estimates for various levels of consumption. The study uses Australian data collected by the National Drug Strategy Household Survey for the years 2001, 2004 and 2007. Measures of individual annual alcohol consumption were derived from three waves of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey; alcohol prices were taken from market research reports. For the overall population of drinkers, a 1% increase in the price of alcohol was associated with a 0.96% (95% CI -0.35%, -1.57%) reduction in alcohol consumption. For those in the highest 10% of drinkers by average amount consumed, a 1% increase in the price of alcohol was associated with a 1.26% (95% CI 0.82%, 1.70%) reduction in consumption. Within Australia, policies that increase the price of alcohol are about equally effective in relative terms for reducing alcohol consumption both for the general population and among those who drink heavily.

Tobacco, alcohol and illicit drugs during pregnancy and risk of neuroblastoma: systematic review.

PubMed

Müller-Schulte, Eloise; Kurlemann, Gerhard; Harder, Anja

2017-11-21

To determine whether prenatal and perinatal maternal consumption of alcohol, tobacco and/or illicit drugs is associated with risk of neuroblastoma. Medline and Embase (both from inception to February 2017), and reference lists of included studies. To be eligible, a study had to be an original report including data on intake of alcohol, tobacco smoking and/or consumption of illicit drugs during pregnancy and risk of neuroblastoma in the child. From eligible studies, data study characteristics as well as effect measures and confounders were extracted. We assessed unadjusted and confounder-adjusted estimates, performed risk of bias analysis, constructed random-effects models and assessed heterogeneity. We identified 14 case-control studies (1987-2016) involving a total of 3114 children with neuroblastoma. Meta-analysis of unadjusted estimates showed an association between alcohol (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.49), tobacco (OR 1.22; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.44) and illicit drug consumption during pregnancy and risk of neuroblastoma during childhood, with illicit drug consumption showing the strongest association (OR 3.26; 95% CI 1.36 to 7.86). However, adjusted estimates were highly heterogeneous. All studies were at high risk of bias. Smoking, alcohol or illicit drugs during pregnancy might play a role in the development of neuroblastoma. However, well-designed studies are needed to assess whether these exposures are causal and whether time period during pregnancy, dose or co-consumption of substances is critical. Registration number CRD42016036165. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Estimating the size of illicit tobacco consumption in Brazil: findings from the global adult tobacco survey.

PubMed

Iglesias, Roberto Magno; Szklo, André Salem; Souza, Mirian Carvalho de; de Almeida, Liz Maria

2017-01-01

Brazil experienced a large decline in smoking prevalence between 2008 and 2013. Tax rate increases since 2007 and a new tobacco tax structure in 2012 may have played an important role in this decline. However, continuous tax rate increases pushed up cigarette prices over personal income growth and, therefore, some consumers, especially lower income individuals, may have migrated to cheaper illicit cigarettes. To use tobacco surveillance data to estimate the size of illicit tobacco consumption before and after excise tax increases. We defined a threshold price and compared it with purchasing prices obtained from two representative surveys conducted in 2008 and 2013 to estimate the proportion of illicit cigarette use among daily smokers. Generalised linear model was specified to understand whether the absolute difference in proportions over time differed by sociodemographic groups and consumption levels. Our findings were validated using an alternative method. Total proportion of illicit daily consumption increased from 16.6% to 31.1% between 2008 and 2013. We observed a pattern of unadjusted absolute decreases in cigarette smoking prevalence and increases in the proportion of illicit consumption, irrespective of gender, age, educational level, area of residence and amount of cigarettes consumed. The strategy of raising taxes has increased government revenues, reduced smoking prevalence and resulted in an increased illicit trade. Surveillance data can be used to provide information on illicit tobacco trade to help in the implementation of WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) article 15 and the FCTC Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Social interactions, trust and risky alcohol consumption.

PubMed

Seid, Abdu Kedir

2016-12-01

The association of social capital and alcohol consumption is one of the most robust empirical findings in health economics of the past decade. However, the direction of the relationship between the two is heavily dependent on which dimension of social capital is studied and which alcohol measure is used. In this paper, we examine the effect of social interactions and generalised trust on drinking in the general Danish population survey. Participants (n = 2569) were recruited as part of a larger study. The double-hurdle model for the volume of alcohol consumption and the multivariate logistic model for heavy episodic drinking were estimated. We found evidence that social networking with male friends, membership in voluntary organisations, and generalised trust were significantly associated with the mean volume of alcohol consumption and heavy drinking. We also observed that social support at the community level had a buffering effect against heavy episodic drinking. The findings support previous findings in which social interactions and generalised trust were found to predict individuals' volume of drinking and heavy episodic drinking. However, the results varied across the indicators.

Cigarette consumption per adult of each sex in various countries.

PubMed Central

Todd, G F

1978-01-01

Estimates of cigarette consumption per adult male and female available from surveys in eight countries are examined and the figures of national consumption per adult implied by the surveys are compared with national averages obtained from government data and other sources. The errors likely to be found in the surveys are considered and corrected figures are calculated. Estimates are also made of cigarette consumption per woman of childbearing age. PMID:744820

SPS market analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goff, H. C.

1980-05-01

A market analysis task included personal interviews by GE personnel and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective small solar thermal power systems (SPS) users. Over 500 firms were contacted, including three ownership classes of electric utilities, industrial firms in the top SIC codes for energy consumption, and design engineering firms. A market demand model was developed which utilizes the data base developed by personal interviews and surveys, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential markets for SPS.

Does the choice of neighbourhood supermarket access measure influence associations with individual-level fruit and vegetable consumption? A case study from Glasgow.

PubMed

Thornton, Lukar E; Pearce, Jamie R; Macdonald, Laura; Lamb, Karen E; Ellaway, Anne

2012-07-27

Previous studies have provided mixed evidence with regards to associations between food store access and dietary outcomes. This study examines the most commonly applied measures of locational access to assess whether associations between supermarket access and fruit and vegetable consumption are affected by the choice of access measure and scale. Supermarket location data from Glasgow, UK (n = 119), and fruit and vegetable intake data from the 'Health and Well-Being' Survey (n = 1041) were used to compare various measures of locational access. These exposure variables included proximity estimates (with different points-of-origin used to vary levels of aggregation) and density measures using three approaches (Euclidean and road network buffers and Kernel density estimation) at distances ranging from 0.4 km to 5 km. Further analysis was conducted to assess the impact of using smaller buffer sizes for individuals who did not own a car. Associations between these multiple access measures and fruit and vegetable consumption were estimated using linear regression models. Levels of spatial aggregation did not impact on the proximity estimates. Counts of supermarkets within Euclidean buffers were associated with fruit and vegetable consumption at 1 km, 2 km and 3 km, and for our road network buffers at 2 km, 3 km, and 4 km. Kernel density estimates provided the strongest associations and were significant at a distance of 2 km, 3 km, 4 km and 5 km. Presence of a supermarket within 0.4 km of road network distance from where people lived was positively associated with fruit consumption amongst those without a car (coef. 0.657; s.e. 0.247; p0.008). The associations between locational access to supermarkets and individual-level dietary behaviour are sensitive to the method by which the food environment variable is captured. Care needs to be taken to ensure robust and conceptually appropriate measures of access are used and these should be grounded in a clear a priori reasoning.

Does the choice of neighbourhood supermarket access measure influence associations with individual-level fruit and vegetable consumption? A case study from Glasgow

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Previous studies have provided mixed evidence with regards to associations between food store access and dietary outcomes. This study examines the most commonly applied measures of locational access to assess whether associations between supermarket access and fruit and vegetable consumption are affected by the choice of access measure and scale. Method Supermarket location data from Glasgow, UK (n = 119), and fruit and vegetable intake data from the ‘Health and Well-Being’ Survey (n = 1041) were used to compare various measures of locational access. These exposure variables included proximity estimates (with different points-of-origin used to vary levels of aggregation) and density measures using three approaches (Euclidean and road network buffers and Kernel density estimation) at distances ranging from 0.4 km to 5 km. Further analysis was conducted to assess the impact of using smaller buffer sizes for individuals who did not own a car. Associations between these multiple access measures and fruit and vegetable consumption were estimated using linear regression models. Results Levels of spatial aggregation did not impact on the proximity estimates. Counts of supermarkets within Euclidean buffers were associated with fruit and vegetable consumption at 1 km, 2 km and 3 km, and for our road network buffers at 2 km, 3 km, and 4 km. Kernel density estimates provided the strongest associations and were significant at a distance of 2 km, 3 km, 4 km and 5 km. Presence of a supermarket within 0.4 km of road network distance from where people lived was positively associated with fruit consumption amongst those without a car (coef. 0.657; s.e. 0.247; p0.008). Conclusions The associations between locational access to supermarkets and individual-level dietary behaviour are sensitive to the method by which the food environment variable is captured. Care needs to be taken to ensure robust and conceptually appropriate measures of access are used and these should be grounded in a clear a priori reasoning. PMID:22839742

Thailand's energy security: Strategic Petroleum Reserve and its economic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leesombatpiboon, Poonpat

This dissertation studies Thailand's energy security from three related perspectives, the role of oil on the Thai macroeconomy, the sectoral demand for oil in Thailand, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) policy for the Thai economy. The first part of my dissertation estimates an error correction model of aggregate production function for Thailand. Thai economic growth is modeled as a function of labor, capital, and oil consumption. Unlike previous studies that focus on testing the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, I focus on measuring the elasticity of economic growth with respect to oil consumption and oil prices. I find a cointegration relationship between GDP, capital, labor, and oil consumption. The results suggest that there exists a constant-return-to-scale characteristic in Thailand's aggregate production function with the contribution of labor, oil, and capital to output around 68, 19, and 13 percent respectively. The long-run and short-run contribution of oil consumption to the economy appears to be fairly close, suggesting that oil has a critical role in the Thai economy. In the short run, oil shortages have a much more severe impact on Thai economy than the effects of an oil price shock. For example, a 10 percent shortfall in oil consumption might cause economic growth to shrink by 2 percent within the same year while a sharp10 percent rise in oil prices canlead output growth to a fall by about 0.5 percent. The response of output to increases and decreases in oil prices is found to be asymmetric in the short run. The second part of my dissertation examines the short-run and long-run determinants of final oil consumption in seven major economic sectors in Thailand. Two different approaches are compared. The first approach uses dynamic panel data estimation techniques taking into account oil consumption of the whole economy in an aggregate manner. The second approach employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) error correction framework to model oil demand in each economic sector separately. The results show that the dynamic panel data approach appears to give estimates consistent with the economic theory. The signs on the coefficients are correct and the magnitude of long-run responses is larger than that of the short-run responses. The single sector model approach yields similar but richer results. Since constant slopes are not imposed across sectors the characteristics and dynamics and responses can differ across sectors. The third part of my dissertation develops a simple Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the economic consequences of the SPR for a "small oil-importing economy." This economy is subject to the risk of oil shocks. Government policy-makers attempt to mitigate the macroeconomic impacts of the shocks by establishing a SPR. The assigned values of the parameters in the model aim to reflect the basic characteristics of the Thai economy. The simulation results show that the impulse responses of key economic variables for different degrees of oil shocks follow the same pattern. When the degree of the shock increases, the magnitude of the stock drawdown increases, which helps lower the negative impact on economic welfare. I examine the welfare effects from alternative sizes of the SPR and the opportunity cost for the economy that result when it has to sacrifice additional resources to maintain and operate the SPR. This lowers the level of resources available for production and consumption in the long run. There exists a trade-off relationship between the sacrificed welfare in the long run and the less volatile welfare in the short run.

Power optimization of digital baseband WCDMA receiver components on algorithmic and architectural level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schämann, M.; Bücker, M.; Hessel, S.; Langmann, U.

2008-05-01

High data rates combined with high mobility represent a challenge for the design of cellular devices. Advanced algorithms are required which result in higher complexity, more chip area and increased power consumption. However, this contrasts to the limited power supply of mobile devices. This presentation discusses the application of an HSDPA receiver which has been optimized regarding power consumption with the focus on the algorithmic and architectural level. On algorithmic level the Rake combiner, Prefilter-Rake equalizer and MMSE equalizer are compared regarding their BER performance. Both equalizer approaches provide a significant increase of performance for high data rates compared to the Rake combiner which is commonly used for lower data rates. For both equalizer approaches several adaptive algorithms are available which differ in complexity and convergence properties. To identify the algorithm which achieves the required performance with the lowest power consumption the algorithms have been investigated using SystemC models regarding their performance and arithmetic complexity. Additionally, for the Prefilter Rake equalizer the power estimations of a modified Griffith (LMS) and a Levinson (RLS) algorithm have been compared with the tool ORINOCO supplied by ChipVision. The accuracy of this tool has been verified with a scalable architecture of the UMTS channel estimation described both in SystemC and VHDL targeting a 130 nm CMOS standard cell library. An architecture combining all three approaches combined with an adaptive control unit is presented. The control unit monitors the current condition of the propagation channel and adjusts parameters for the receiver like filter size and oversampling ratio to minimize the power consumption while maintaining the required performance. The optimization strategies result in a reduction of the number of arithmetic operations up to 70% for single components which leads to an estimated power reduction of up to 40% while the BER performance is not affected. This work utilizes SystemC and ORINOCO for the first estimation of power consumption in an early step of the design flow. Thereby algorithms can be compared in different operating modes including the effects of control units. Here an algorithm having higher peak complexity and power consumption but providing more flexibility showed less consumption for normal operating modes compared to the algorithm which is optimized for peak performance.

Estimating household water demand using revealed and contingent behaviors: Evidence from Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheesman, Jeremy; Bennett, Jeff; Son, Tran Vo Hung

2008-11-01

This article estimates the water demand of households using (1) municipal water exclusively and (2) municipal water and household well water in the capital city of Dak Lak Province in Vietnam. Household water demands are estimated using a panel data set formed by pooling household records of metered municipal water consumption and their stated preferences for water consumption contingent on hypothetical water prices. Estimates show that households using municipal water exclusively have very price inelastic demand. Households using municipal and household well water have more price elastic, but still inelastic, simultaneous water demand and treat municipal water and household well water as substitutes. Household water consumption is influenced by household water storage and supply infrastructure, income, and socioeconomic attributes. The demand estimates are used to forecast municipal water consumption by households in Buon Ma Thuot following an increase to the municipal water tariff to forecast the municipal water supply company's revenue stream following a tariff increase and to estimate the consumer surplus loss resulting from municipal water supply shortages.

United States Data Center Energy Usage Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shehabi, Arman; Smith, Sarah; Sartor, Dale

This report estimates historical data center electricity consumption back to 2000, relying on previous studies and historical shipment data, and forecasts consumption out to 2020 based on new trends and the most recent data available. Figure ES-1 provides an estimate of total U.S. data center electricity use (servers, storage, network equipment, and infrastructure) from 2000-2020. In 2014, data centers in the U.S. consumed an estimated 70 billion kWh, representing about 1.8% of total U.S. electricity consumption. Current study results show data center electricity consumption increased by about 4% from 2010-2014, a large shift from the 24% percent increase estimated frommore » 2005-2010 and the nearly 90% increase estimated from 2000-2005. Energy use is expected to continue slightly increasing in the near future, increasing 4% from 2014-2020, the same rate as the past five years. Based on current trend estimates, U.S. data centers are projected to consume approximately 73 billion kWh in 2020.« less

Apparent Consumption vs. Total Consumption--A Lead-Acid Battery Case Study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilburn, David R.; Buckingham, David A.

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report compares estimates of U.S. apparent consumption of lead with estimates of total U.S. consumption of this mineral commodity from a materials flow perspective. The difference, attributed to the amount of lead contained in imported and exported products, was found to be significant for this sector. The study also assesses the effects of including mineral commodities incorporated in manufactured products on the interpretation of observed trends in minerals consumption and trade. Materials flow is a systems approach to understanding what happens to the materials we use from the time a material is extracted, through its processing and manufacturing, to its ultimate disposition. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides accurate and detailed mineral production and mineral commodity consumption statistics that are essential for government, nongovernment organizations, and the public to gain a better understanding of how and where materials are used and their effect on the environment and society. Published statistics on mineral apparent consumption are limited to estimates of consumption of raw material forms (ore, concentrate, and [or] refined metal). For this study, apparent consumption is defined as mine production + secondary refined production + imports (concentrates and refined metal) ? exports (concentrates and refined metal) + adjustments for government and industry stock changes. These estimates do not account for the amount of mineral commodities contained in manufactured products that are imported to the United States, nor do they deduct the amount of these mineral commodities contained in manufactured products that are exported from the United States. When imports or exports of manufactured products contribute significantly to the total use of a particular raw material, an estimate of consumption that does not consider the incorporated forms of these mineral commodities within imported or exported manufactured products can be either under- or overreported (depending on the net trade flow). Factors that influence consumption and trade patterns include variations in industry structure, labor or financial markets, legislation, and technology. As U.S. trade patterns of manufactured products change, omitting mineral commodities incorporated into these goods as part of U.S. mineral commodity consumption estimates may affect the interpretation of observed trends in minerals consumption and trade. Although it may be desirable to include minerals contained in manufactured products as part of consumption estimates, collection and estimation of these data are sometimes difficult. Consumption and trade data for every traded product may not be readily available. Compiling comprehensive consumption statistics for mineral commodities, which have many end uses, each including multiple products, may be time consuming. For these reasons, studies of all mineral commodities are not feasible. Mineral commodity selection for this study is based on data accessibility considerations and the relative importance of lead contained in imported and exported products when considered part of total U.S. lead consumption. Lead was selected for this initial evaluation of total mineral consumption because of the need to understand the consumption pattern of this potentially toxic metal and its compounds, the relative simplicity of this sector?s end-use structure, and the availability of trade data. This study draws upon the findings of an earlier lead consumption study (Biviano and others, 1999) conducted by the USGS for the period 1984 to 1993, but uses a different study methodology for an industry whose structure has changed from that considered in the earlier study. Figure 1 shows the quantity of material contributing to U.S. total consumption of lead metal from domestic and foreign industrial sectors in 2004, based upon trade data reported by the USGS and the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC). For

Green Routing Fuel Saving Opportunity Assessment: A Case Study on California Large-Scale Real-World Travel Data: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Lei; Holden, Jacob; Gonder, Jeff

New technologies, such as connected and automated vehicles, have attracted more and more researchers for improving the energy efficiency and environmental impact of current transportation systems. The green routing strategy instructs a vehicle to select the most fuel-efficient route before the vehicle departs. It benefits the current transportation system with fuel saving opportunity through identifying the greenest route. This paper introduces an evaluation framework for estimating benefits of green routing based on large-scale, real-world travel data. The framework has the capability to quantify fuel savings by estimating the fuel consumption of actual routes and comparing to routes procured by navigationmore » systems. A route-based fuel consumption estimation model, considering road traffic conditions, functional class, and road grade is proposed and used in the framework. An experiment using a large-scale data set from the California Household Travel Survey global positioning system trajectory data base indicates that 31% of actual routes have fuel savings potential with a cumulative estimated fuel savings of 12%.« less

Green Routing Fuel Saving Opportunity Assessment: A Case Study on California Large-Scale Real-World Travel Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Lei; Holden, Jacob; Gonder, Jeffrey D

New technologies, such as connected and automated vehicles, have attracted more and more researchers for improving the energy efficiency and environmental impact of current transportation systems. The green routing strategy instructs a vehicle to select the most fuel-efficient route before the vehicle departs. It benefits the current transportation system with fuel saving opportunity through identifying the greenest route. This paper introduces an evaluation framework for estimating benefits of green routing based on large-scale, real-world travel data. The framework has the capability to quantify fuel savings by estimating the fuel consumption of actual routes and comparing to routes procured by navigationmore » systems. A route-based fuel consumption estimation model, considering road traffic conditions, functional class, and road grade is proposed and used in the framework. An experiment using a large-scale data set from the California Household Travel Survey global positioning system trajectory data base indicates that 31% of actual routes have fuel savings potential with a cumulative estimated fuel savings of 12%.« less

[Consumption of alcohol and other drugs by the active population in Spain].

PubMed

Benavides, Fernando G; Ruiz-Forès, Núria; Delclós, Jordi; Domingo-Salvany, Antònia

2013-01-01

To describe consumption patterns of alcohol and other drugs in the active population in Spain by gender. Based on 15,082 active persons selected from the Domiciliary Survey of Alcohol and Drugs (Encuesta Domiciliaria de Alcohol y Drogas [EDADES]) 2007, we estimated prevalences for high-risk alcohol consumption (>50 g/day in males, >30 g/day in females), daily intake of tranquilizers, cannabis consumption in the last 30 days, and consumption of any other illegal drug in the last 12 months, by employment status, economic sector and occupational categories. Odds ratios (OR) and their confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated by logistic regression models. The following prevalences were found: high-risk alcohol consumption, 3.4%; daily use of tranquilizers, 2.3%; cannabis consumption in the last 30 days, 7.9%; and consumption of any illegal drug in the last 12 months, 11.9%. Except for tranquilizer use, prevalences were higher in men than in women. Consumption of tranquilizers (OR = 1.68; 95%CI: 1.04-2.73), cannabis and other illegal drugs were all higher in unemployed men than in employed men, while only tranquilizer consumption was higher in unemployed women (OR = 1.70; 95% CI: 1.23-2.34). High-risk alcohol consumption was greater among men engaged in the catering, primary production and construction sectors in comparison to manufacturing industries: OR = 1.63 (95% CI: 1.11-2.38), OR = 1.52 (95% CI: 1.04-2.20), and OR = 1.50 (95% CI: 1.10-2.04), respectively. For women, those in catering showed higher consumptions of cannabis (OR = 2.34; 95% CI: 1.28-4.27) and of other illegal drugs (OR = 2.85; 95% CI: 1.71-4.76); the latter were also higher in commerce, transport and administration sectors than in manufacturing industries. These findings could serve as a useful reference for companies wanting to carry out preventive programs, and also for future studies assessing the impact of preventive measures. Copyright © 2012 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

The Validity of US Nutritional Surveillance: USDA's Loss-Adjusted Food Availability Data Series 1971-2010

PubMed Central

Archer, Edward; Thomas, Diana M.; McDonald, Samantha M.; Pavela, Gregory; Lavie, Carl J.; Hill, James O.; Blair, Steven N.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the validity of the 1971-2010 United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) loss-adjusted food availability (LAFA) per capita caloric consumption estimates. Estimated total daily energy expenditure (TEE) was calculated for nationally representative samples of US adults, 20-74 years, using the Institute of Medicine's predictive equations with “low-active” (TEE L-ACT) and “sedentary” (TEE SED) physical activity values. TEE estimates were subtracted from LAFA estimates to create disparity values (kcal/d). A validated mathematical model was applied to calculate expected weight change in reference individuals resulting from the disparity. From 1971-2010, the disparity between LAFA and TEE L-ACT varied by 394 kcal/d—(P < 0.001), from −205 kcal/d (95% CI: −214, −196) to +189 kcal/d (95% CI: 168, 209). The disparity between LAFA and TEE SED varied by 412 kcal/d (P < 0.001), from −84 kcal/d (95% CI: −93, −76) to +328 kcal/d (95% CI: 309, 348). Our model suggests that if LAFA estimates were actually consumed, reference individuals would have lost ∼1-4 kg/y from 1971-1980 (an accumulated loss of ∼ 12 to ∼36kg), and gained ∼ 3-7 kg/y from 1988-2010 (an accumulated gain of ∼42 to ∼98 kg). These estimates differed from the actual measured increments of 10 kg and 9 kg in reference men and women, respectively, over the 39-year period. The USDA LAFA data provided inconsistent, divergent estimates of per capita caloric consumption over its 39-year history. The large, variable misestimation suggests that the USDA LAFA per capita caloric intake estimates lack validity and should not be used to inform public policy. PMID:27914522

A stochastic ensemble-based model to predict crop water requirements from numerical weather forecasts and VIS-NIR high resolution satellite images in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelosi, Anna; Falanga Bolognesi, Salvatore; De Michele, Carlo; Medina Gonzalez, Hanoi; Villani, Paolo; D'Urso, Guido; Battista Chirico, Giovanni

2015-04-01

Irrigation agriculture is one the biggest consumer of water in Europe, especially in southern regions, where it accounts for up to 70% of the total water consumption. The EU Common Agricultural Policy, combined with the Water Framework Directive, imposes to farmers and irrigation managers a substantial increase of the efficiency in the use of water in agriculture for the next decade. Ensemble numerical weather predictions can be valuable data for developing operational advisory irrigation services. We propose a stochastic ensemble-based model providing spatial and temporal estimates of crop water requirements, implemented within an advisory service offering detailed maps of irrigation water requirements and crop water consumption estimates, to be used by water irrigation managers and farmers. The stochastic model combines estimates of crop potential evapotranspiration retrieved from ensemble numerical weather forecasts (COSMO-LEPS, 16 members, 7 km resolution) and canopy parameters (LAI, albedo, fractional vegetation cover) derived from high resolution satellite images in the visible and near infrared wavelengths. The service provides users with daily estimates of crop water requirements for lead times up to five days. The temporal evolution of the crop potential evapotranspiration is simulated with autoregressive models. An ensemble Kalman filter is employed for updating model states by assimilating both ground based meteorological variables (where available) and numerical weather forecasts. The model has been applied in Campania region (Southern Italy), where a satellite assisted irrigation advisory service has been operating since 2006. This work presents the results of the system performance for one year of experimental service. The results suggest that the proposed model can be an effective support for a sustainable use and management of irrigation water, under conditions of water scarcity and drought. Since the evapotranspiration term represents a staple component in the water balance of a catchment, as outstanding future development, the model could also offer an advanced support for water resources management decisions at catchment scale.

Coffee consumption modifies risk of estrogen-receptor negative breast cancer

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Breast cancer is a complex disease and may be sub-divided into hormone-responsive (estrogen receptor (ER) positive) and non-hormone-responsive subtypes (ER-negative). Some evidence suggests that heterogeneity exists in the associations between coffee consumption and breast cancer risk, according to different estrogen receptor subtypes. We assessed the association between coffee consumption and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in a large population-based study (2,818 cases and 3,111 controls), overall, and stratified by ER tumour subtypes. Methods Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using the multivariate logistic regression models fitted to examine breast cancer risk in a stratified case-control analysis. Heterogeneity among ER subtypes was evaluated in a case-only analysis, by fitting binary logistic regression models, treating ER status as a dependent variable, with coffee consumption included as a covariate. Results In the Swedish study, coffee consumption was associated with a modest decrease in overall breast cancer risk in the age-adjusted model (OR> 5 cups/day compared to OR≤ 1 cup/day: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.99, P trend = 0.028). In the stratified case-control analyses, a significant reduction in the risk of ER-negative breast cancer was observed in heavy coffee drinkers (OR> 5 cups/day compared to OR≤ 1 cup/day : 0.43, 95% CI: 0.25, 0.72, P trend = 0.0003) in a multivariate-adjusted model. The breast cancer risk reduction associated with higher coffee consumption was significantly higher for ER-negative compared to ER-positive tumours (P heterogeneity (age-adjusted) = 0.004). Conclusions A high daily intake of coffee was found to be associated with a statistically significant decrease in ER-negative breast cancer among postmenopausal women. PMID:21569535

Assessment of seasonality in exposure to dioxins, furans and dioxin-like PCBs by using long-term food-consumption data.

PubMed

Feinberg, M; Soler, L; Contenot, S; Verger, P

2011-04-01

According to the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance related to uncertainties in dietary exposure assessment, exposure assessment based on short-term food-consumption surveys, such as 24-h recalls or 2-day records, tend to overestimate long-term exposure because of the assumption that the dietary pattern will be similar day after day over a lifetime. The aim of this study was to make an assessment of dietary exposure to polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), also called 'dioxins' and 'dioxin-like PCBs', using long-term household purchase and consumption survey data collected by TNS-Secodip. Weekly purchases of the major dioxins and dl-PCB vector products of these contaminants were collected for 328 single-person households, who participated at TNS-Secodip consumption surveys from 2003 to 2005 and who were single-person households in order to estimate better their consumption. These data were combined with average contamination levels of food products. Weekly gross average exposure was estimated at 10.2 pg toxic equivalent (WHO TEQ) kg(-1) bw week(-1) (95% confidence interval [9.6, 10.9]). According to the typical shape of the distribution of individual weekly exposures, it is sensible to fit an exponential law to these data. The mean was therefore 12.1 pg WHO TEQ kg(-1) bw week(-1). This value is higher than the arithmetic mean because it better takes into account inter-individual variability. It was estimated that about 20% of persons in this sample were exceeding the current health-based guidance value mainly due to high consumption of seafood and/or dairy products. Thanks to long survey duration (3 years) and the weekly recording of food consumption, it was possible to demonstrate the actual seasonality of dietary exposure to dioxins and dl-PCBs with a maximum between March and September; similar seasonality is observable for fish consumption. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were adjusted to the time series and it was demonstrated that the number of times the upper limit of confidence intervals exceeds the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) is about 15 weeks per year on average. Finally, compared with the results obtained from data collected in the short-term surveys (1 week), this study does not suggest that short-term consumption surveys tend to overestimate the long-term exposure.

Acute effects of dobutamine on myocardial oxygen consumption and cardiac efficiency measured using carbon-11 acetate kinetics in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Beanlands, R S; Bach, D S; Raylman, R; Armstrong, W F; Wilson, V; Montieth, M; Moore, C K; Bates, E; Schwaiger, M

1993-11-01

The aim of this study was to use positron emission tomography (PET)-derived carbon (C)-11 acetate kinetics to determine the effects of dobutamine on oxidative metabolism and its effects on myocardial efficiency in a group of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy. Dobutamine is known to improve myocardial function but may do so at the expense of myocardial oxygen consumption, which could be a potential deleterious effect. Carbon-11 acetate kinetics correlate with myocardial oxygen consumption as shown in animal models. Combining these scintigraphic measurements of oxygen consumption with estimates of cardiac work results in a work-metabolic index, which reflects cardiac efficiency. Eight patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy underwent dynamic PET imaging, echocardiography and hemodynamic measurements. Seven of these patients were also studied while receiving dobutamine. Direct measurements of myocardial oxygen consumption using coronary sinus catheterization were obtained with eight of the PET studies to validate C-11 acetate in patients with cardiomyopathy. The mean (+/- SD) C-11 clearance rate significantly increased with dobutamine from 0.105 +/- 0.027 to 0.155 +/- 0.023 min-1 (p = 0.001). Directly measured myocardial oxygen consumption had a linear relation to the mean C-11 clearance rate (r = 0.8, p = 0.018). Dobutamine was noted to significantly reduce systemic vascular resistance as well as the severity of mitral regurgitation. The work-metabolic index determined using hemodynamic variables and PET data increased from 2 +/- 0.7 x 10(4) to 2.6 +/- 0.6 x 10(4) (p = 0.04). Efficiency, estimated by employing the oxygen consumption to k2 relation, also increased from 13 +/- 4.5% to 16.9 +/- 6.4% (p = 0.04). Despite an increase in myocardial oxygen consumption, dobutamine led to an increase in work-metabolic index in patients with dilated nonischemic cardiomyopathy. Dobutamine reduced systemic vascular resistance and mitral regurgitation, suggesting that in this group of patients, it had important vasodilatory action in addition to its inotropic effects. The use of the C-11 acetate PET for determining myocardial oxygen consumption and estimating efficiency could potentially complement existing clinical measures of ventricular performance and may allow improved and objective evaluation of therapy in patients with heart failure.

Validation of survey information on smoking and alcohol consumption against import statistics, Greenland 1993-2010.

PubMed

Bjerregaard, Peter; Becker, Ulrik

2013-01-01

Questionnaires are widely used to obtain information on health-related behaviour, and they are more often than not the only method that can be used to assess the distribution of behaviour in subgroups of the population. No validation studies of reported consumption of tobacco or alcohol have been published from circumpolar indigenous communities. The purpose of the study is to compare information on the consumption of tobacco and alcohol obtained from 3 population surveys in Greenland with import statistics. Estimates of consumption of cigarettes and alcohol using several different survey instruments in cross-sectional population studies from 1993-1994, 1999-2001 and 2005-2010 were compared with import statistics from the same years. For cigarettes, survey results accounted for virtually the total import. Alcohol consumption was significantly under-reported with reporting completeness ranging from 40% to 51% for different estimates of habitual weekly consumption in the 3 study periods. Including an estimate of binge drinking increased the estimated total consumption to 78% of the import. Compared with import statistics, questionnaire-based population surveys capture the consumption of cigarettes well in Greenland. Consumption of alcohol is under-reported, but asking about binge episodes in addition to the usual intake considerably increased the reported intake in this population and made it more in agreement with import statistics. It is unknown to what extent these findings at the population level can be inferred to population subgroups.

An accounting system for water and consumptive use along the Colorado River, Hoover Dam to Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Owen-Joyce, Sandra J.; Raymond, Lee H.

1996-01-01

An accounting system for estimating and distributing consumptive use of water by vegetation to water users was developed for the Colorado River to meet the requirements of a U.S. Supreme Court decree and used with data from calendar year 1984. The system is based on a water-budget method to estimate total consumptive use by vegetation which is apportioned to agricultural users by using percentages of total evapotranspiration by vegetation estimated from digital-image analysis of satellite data.

Production and consumption of major wood products in the Lake States: perspectives and trends.

Treesearch

Gerald J. Gray; Paul V. Ellefson; David C. Lothner

1986-01-01

Estimates are developed of primary and secondary wood products production and consumption in the Lake States (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) between 1960 and 1980. Consumption estimates are derived through application of the use-factor approach. Increased cooperation among forestry agencies in the three states appears to hold significant regional benefits.

State space model approach for forecasting the use of electrical energy (a case study on: PT. PLN (Persero) district of Kroya)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniati, Devi; Hoyyi, Abdul; Widiharih, Tatik

2018-05-01

Time series data is a series of data taken or measured based on observations at the same time interval. Time series data analysis is used to perform data analysis considering the effect of time. The purpose of time series analysis is to know the characteristics and patterns of a data and predict a data value in some future period based on data in the past. One of the forecasting methods used for time series data is the state space model. This study discusses the modeling and forecasting of electric energy consumption using the state space model for univariate data. The modeling stage is began with optimal Autoregressive (AR) order selection, determination of state vector through canonical correlation analysis, estimation of parameter, and forecasting. The result of this research shows that modeling of electric energy consumption using state space model of order 4 with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value 3.655%, so the model is very good forecasting category.

Perlite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bolen, W.P.

2013-01-01

Domestic production and prices of crude processed perlite in the United States were estimated to have increased in 2012 compared with 2011. Perlite trade, both imports and exports, slowed in 2012 compared with 2011. With imports of perlite down by about 13 percent and domestic production up slightly, the balance resulted in a consumption decrease of about 20 kt (22,000 st). The estimated amount of processed perlite sold or used from U.S. mines in 2012 rose to 424 kt (467,000 st) from the upwardly revised total of 420 kt (463,000 st) sold or used in 2011. U.S. consumption of crude processed perlite increased in 2010 and 2011, but 2012 consumption was estimated to have decreased by about 3 percent to 557 kt (614,000 st). However, these 2012 estimates are still 19 percent higher than the consumption of 2009, when only 468 kt (516,000 st) of perlite was consumed (Table 1). Significantly increased U.S. construction activity during late 2012 likely indicates increased consumption of building materials, the leading market for perlite.

Do High Consumers of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Respond Differently to Price Changes? A Finite Mixture IV-Tobit Approach.

PubMed

Etilé, Fabrice; Sharma, Anurag

2015-09-01

This study compares the impact of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) tax between moderate and high consumers in Australia. The key methodological contribution is that price response heterogeneity is identified while controlling for censoring of consumption at zero and endogeneity of expenditure by using a finite mixture instrumental variable Tobit model. The SSB price elasticity estimates show a decreasing trend across increasing consumption quantiles, from -2.3 at the median to -0.2 at the 95th quantile. Although high consumers of SSBs have a less elastic demand for SSBs, their very high consumption levels imply that a tax would achieve higher reduction in consumption and higher health gains. Our results also suggest that an SSB tax would represent a small fiscal burden for consumers whatever their pre-policy level of consumption, and that an excise tax should be preferred to an ad valorem tax. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dietary consumption of advanced glycation end products and pancreatic cancer in the prospective NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

PubMed

Jiao, Li; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael; Zimmerman, Thea Palmer; Duan, Zhigang; Chen, Liang; Kahle, Lisa; Risch, Adam; Subar, Amy F; Cross, Amanda J; Hollenbeck, Albert; Vlassara, Helen; Striker, Gary; Sinha, Rashmi

2015-01-01

Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are a heterogeneous group of compounds present in uncooked foods as well as in foods cooked at high temperatures. AGEs have been associated with insulin resistance, oxidative stress, and chronic inflammation in patients with diabetes. Dietary AGEs are an important contributor to the AGE pool in the body. N(ϵ)-(carboxymethyl)lysine (CML) AGE is one of the major biologically and chemically well-characterized AGE markers. The consumption of red meat, which is CML-AGE rich, has been positively associated with pancreatic cancer in men. With the use of a published food CML-AGE database, we estimated the consumption of CML AGE in the prospective NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study and evaluated the association between CML-AGE consumption and pancreatic cancer and the mediating effect of CML AGE on the association between red meat consumption and pancreatic cancer. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs for pancreatic cancer. During an average of 10.5 y of follow-up, we identified 2193 pancreatic cancer cases (1407 men and 786 women) from 528,251 subjects. With the comparison of subjects in the fifth and the first quintiles of CML-AGE consumption, we observed increased pancreatic cancer risk in men (HR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.93, P-trend = 0.003) but not women (HR: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.72, P-trend = 0.42). Men in the highest quintile of red meat consumption had higher risk of pancreatic cancer (HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.70), which attenuated after adjustment for CML-AGE consumption (HR: 1.20; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.53). Dietary CML-AGE consumption was associated with modestly increased risk of pancreatic cancer in men and may partially explain the positive association between red meat and pancreatic cancer. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico.

PubMed

Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Zepeda-Tello, Rodrigo; Rodrigues, Eliane R; Colchero, M Arantxa; Rojas-Martínez, Rosalba; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Rivera-Dommarco, Juan; Meza, Rafael

2017-01-01

What effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico? Using recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario. Ten years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches. The sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available.

Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico

PubMed Central

Zepeda-Tello, Rodrigo; Rodrigues, Eliane R.; Colchero-Aragonés, Arantxa; Rojas-Martínez, Rosalba; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Rivera-Dommarco, Juan; Meza, Rafael

2017-01-01

Study question What effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico? Methods Using recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario. Study answer and limitations Ten years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches. What this study adds The sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available. PMID:28520716

[Potential health risks from consumption of water with arsenic in Colima, Mexico].

PubMed

Mendoza-Cano, Oliver; Sánchez-Piña, Ramón Alberto; Barrón-Quintana, Julián; Cuevas-Arellano, Herguin Benjamin; Escalante-Minakata, Pilar; Solano-Barajas, Ramón

2017-01-01

To estimate potential health risks due to chronic ingestion of arsenic from groundwater in Colima, Mexico. Samples were randomly taken in 36 wells from 10 local aquifers. Analysis was performed by ICP-OES following international standards. Geostatistical interpolation was performed with ArcGIS, implementing a model weighting inverse distance to estimate arsenic routes of exposure and consumption on each locality. The Hazard Quotient Ratio (HQ) and carcinogenic risk (R) for As were estimated. The weighted average HQ for arsenic in Colima is 2.41. There are HQ> 1 values indicating adverse non-cancer health effects by continuous and prolonged intake of water with arsenic, which could affect 183 832 individuals in the state. The risk of developing any type of cancer among the population in this study due to high arsenic concentrations in groundwater (R) is 1.089E-3, which could statistically cause 446 cases of cancer. Current levels of arsenic in groundwater increase carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic human health risks in Colima.

Milk cow feed intake and milk production and distribution estimates for Phase 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beck, D.M.; Darwin, R.F.; Erickson, A.R.

1992-04-01

This report provides initial information on milk production and distribution in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project Phase I study area. The Phase I study area consists of eight countries in central Washington and two countries in northern Oregon. The primary objective of the HEDR Project is to develop estimates of the radiation doses populations could have received from Hanford operations. The objective of Phase I of the project was to determine the feasibility of reconstructing data, models, and development of preliminary dose estimates received by people living in the ten countries surrounding Hanford from 1944 to 1947. Onemore » of the most important contributors to radiation doses from Hanford during the period of interest was radioactive iodine. Consumption of milk from cows that ate vegetation contaminated with iodine is likely the dominant pathway of human exposure. To estimate the doses people could have received from this pathway, it is necessary to estimate the amount of milk that the people living in the Phase I area consumed, the source of the milk, and the type of feed that the milk cows ate. The objective of the milk model subtask is to identify the sources of milk supplied to residents of each community in the study area as well as the sources of feeds that were fed to the milk cows. In this report, we focus on Grade A cow's milk (fresh milk used for human consumption).« less

Cumulative receipt of an anti-poverty tax credit for families did not impact tobacco smoking among parents.

PubMed

Pega, Frank; Gilsanz, Paola; Kawachi, Ichiro; Wilson, Nick; Blakely, Tony

2017-04-01

The effect of anti-poverty tax credit interventions on tobacco consumption is unclear. Previous studies have estimated short-term effects, did not isolate the effects of cumulative dose of tax credits, produced conflicting results, and used methods with limited control for some time-varying confounders (e.g., those affected by prior treatment) and treatment regimen (i.e., study participants' tax credit receipt pattern over time). We estimated the longer-term, cumulative effect of New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) on tobacco consumption, using a natural experiment (administrative errors leading to exogenous variation in FTC receipt) and methods specifically for controlling confounding, reverse causation, and treatment regimen. We extracted seven waves (2002-2009) of the nationally representative Survey of Family, Income and Employment including 4404 working-age (18-65 years) parents in families. The exposure was the total numbers of years of receiving FTC. The outcomes were regular smoking and the average daily number of cigarettes usually smoked at wave 7. We estimated average treatment effects using inverse probability of treatment weighting and marginal structural modelling. Each additional year of receiving FTC affected neither the odds of regular tobacco smoking among all parents (odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.94-1.11), nor the number of cigarettes smoked among parents who smoked regularly (rate ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.03). We found no evidence for an association between the cumulative number of years of receiving an anti-poverty tax credit and tobacco smoking or consumption among parents. The assumptions of marginal structural modelling are quite demanding, and we therefore cannot rule out residual confounding. Nonetheless, our results suggest that tax credit programme participation will not increase tobacco consumption among poor parents, at least in this high-income country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Practical Guide for Estimating Dietary Fat and Fiber Using Limited Food Frequency Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neale, Anne Victoria; And Others

1992-01-01

A methodology is presented for estimating daily intake of dietary fat and fiber based on limited food frequency data. The procedure, which relies on National Food Consumption Survey data and daily consumption rates, can provide baseline estimates of dietary patterns for health promotion policymakers. (SLD)

Calibrating acoustic acceleration transmitters for estimating energy use by wild adult Pacific salmon.

PubMed

Wilson, S M; Hinch, S G; Eliason, E J; Farrell, A P; Cooke, S J

2013-03-01

This study is the first to calibrate acceleration transmitters with energy expenditure using a vertebrate model species. We quantified the relationship between acoustic accelerometer output and oxygen consumption across a range of swim speeds and water temperatures for Harrison River adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). First, we verified that acceleration transmitters with a sampling frequency of 10 Hz could be used as a proxy for movement in sockeye salmon. Using a mixed effects model, we determined that tailbeat frequency and acceleration were positively correlated (p<0.0001), independent of tag ID. Acceleration (p<0.0001) was positively related to swim speed while fork length (p=0.051) was negatively related to swim speed. Oxygen consumption and accelerometer output (p<0.0001) had a positive linear relationship and were temperature dependent (p<0.0001). There were no differences in swim performance (F(2,12)=1.023, p=0.820) or oxygen consumption (F(1,12)=0.054, p=0.332) between tagged and untagged individuals. Five tagged fish were released into the Fraser River estuary and manually tracked. Of the five fish, three were successfully tracked for 1h. The above relationships were used to determine that the average swim speed was 1.25±0.03 body lengths s(-1) and cost of transport was 3.39±0.17 mg O(2) kg(-1)min(-1), averaged across the three detected fish. Acceleration transmitters can be effectively used to remotely evaluate fine-scale behavior and estimate energy consumption of adult Pacific salmon throughout their homeward spawning migration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear analysis of gait kinematics to track changes in oxygen consumption in prolonged load carriage walking: a pilot study.

PubMed

Schiffman, Jeffrey M; Chelidze, David; Adams, Albert; Segala, David B; Hasselquist, Leif

2009-09-18

Linking human mechanical work to physiological work for the purpose of developing a model of physical fatigue is a complex problem that cannot be solved easily by conventional biomechanical analysis. The purpose of the study was to determine if two nonlinear analysis methods can address the fundamental issue of utilizing kinematic data to track oxygen consumption from a prolonged walking trial: we evaluated the effectiveness of dynamical systems and fractal analysis in this study. Further, we selected, oxygen consumption as a measure to represent the underlying physiological measure of fatigue. Three male US Army Soldier volunteers (means: 23.3 yr; 1.80 m; 77.3 kg) walked for 120 min at 1.34 m/s with a 40-kg load on a level treadmill. Gait kinematic data and oxygen consumption (VO(2)) data were collected over the 120-min period. For the fractal analysis, utilizing stride interval data, we calculated fractal dimension. For the dynamical systems analysis, kinematic angle time series were used to estimate phase space warping based features at uniform time intervals: smooth orthogonal decomposition (SOD) was used to extract slowly time-varying trends from these features. Estimated fractal dimensions showed no apparent trend or correlation with independently measured VO(2). While inter-individual difference did exist in the VO(2) data, dominant SOD time trends tracked and correlated with the VO(2) for all volunteers. Thus, dynamical systems analysis using gait kinematics may be suitable to develop a model to predict physiologic fatigue based on biomechanical work.

Environmental impacts on the diversity of methane-cycling microbes and their resultant function

PubMed Central

Aronson, Emma L.; Allison, Steven D.; Helliker, Brent R.

2013-01-01

Methane is an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas that is produced and consumed in soils by microorganisms responding to micro-environmental conditions. Current estimates show that soil consumption accounts for 5–15% of methane removed from the atmosphere on an annual basis. Recent variability in atmospheric methane concentrations has called into question the reliability of estimates of methane consumption and calls for novel approaches in order to predict future atmospheric methane trends. This review synthesizes the environmental and climatic factors influencing the consumption of methane from the atmosphere by non-wetland, terrestrial soil microorganisms. In particular, we focus on published efforts to connect community composition and diversity of methane-cycling microbial communities to observed rates of methane flux. We find abundant evidence for direct connections between shifts in the methane-cycling microbial community, due to climate and environmental changes, and observed methane flux levels. These responses vary by ecosystem and associated vegetation type. This information will be useful in process-based models of ecosystem methane flux responses to shifts in environmental and climatic parameters. PMID:23966984

Feeding dynamics, consumption rates and daily ration of wahoo Acanthocybium solandri in Indo-Pacific waters.

PubMed

Perelman, J N; Schmidt, K N; Haro, I; Tibbetts, I R; Zischke, M T

2017-05-01

This study reports the diet composition of 363 wahoo Acanthocybium solandri captured from the Indo-Pacific. The study also provides the first estimates of consumption and daily ration for the species worldwide, which are important parameters for ecosystem models and may improve ecosystem-based fisheries management. Thirty-four prey taxa were identified from A. solandri stomachs with Scombridae having the highest relative importance. Actinopterygii comprised 96% of the total prey wet mass, of which 29% were epipelagic fishes, with 22% alone from Scombridae. There was no significant relationship between fish size and the size of prey items consumed. Feeding intensity, as measured by stomach fullness, did not significantly differ either among seasons or reproductive activity. The mean daily consumption rate was estimated as 344 g day -1 , which corresponded to a mean daily ration of 2·44% body mass day -1 . The results from this study suggest A. solandri is an opportunistic predator similar to other pelagic piscivores, worldwide. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Renewable energy rebound effect?: Estimating the impact of state renewable energy financial incentives on residential electricity consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, Beth A.

Climate change is a well-documented phenomenon. If left unchecked greenhouse gas emissions will continue global surface warming, likely leading to severe and irreversible impacts. Generating renewable energy has become an increasingly salient topic in energy policy as it may mitigate the impact of climate change. State renewable energy financial incentives have been in place since the mid-1970s in some states and over 40 states have adopted one or more incentives at some point since then. Using multivariate linear and fixed effects regression for the years 2002 through 2012, I estimate the relationship between state renewable energy financial incentives and residential electricity consumption, along with the associated policy implications. My hypothesis is that a renewable energy rebound effect is present; therefore, states with renewable energy financial incentives have a higher rate of residential electricity consumption. I find a renewable energy rebound effect is present in varying degrees for each model, but the results do not definitively indicate how particular incentives influence consumer behavior. States should use caution when adopting and keeping renewable energy financial incentives as this may increase consumption in the short-term. The long-term impact is unclear, making it worthwhile for policymakers to continue studying the potential for renewable energy financial incentives to alter consumer behavior.

State policies targeting junk food in schools: racial/ethnic differences in the effect of policy change on soda consumption.

PubMed

Taber, Daniel R; Stevens, June; Evenson, Kelly R; Ward, Dianne S; Poole, Charles; Maciejewski, Matthew L; Murray, David M; Brownson, Ross C

2011-09-01

We estimated the association between state policy changes and adolescent soda consumption and body mass index (BMI) percentile, overall and by race/ethnicity. We obtained data on whether states required or recommended that schools prohibit junk food in vending machines, snack bars, concession stands, and parties from the 2000 and 2006 School Health Policies and Programs Study. We used linear mixed models to estimate the association between 2000-2006 policy changes and 2007 soda consumption and BMI percentile, as reported by 90 730 students in 33 states and the District of Columbia in the Youth Risk Behavior Survey, and to test for racial/ethnic differences in the associations. Policy changes targeting concession stands were associated with 0.09 fewer servings of soda per day among students (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.17, -0.01); the association was more pronounced among non-Hispanic Blacks (0.19 fewer servings per day). Policy changes targeting parties were associated with 0.07 fewer servings per day (95% CI = -0.13, 0.00). Policy changes were not associated with BMI percentile in any group. State policies targeting junk food in schools may reduce racial/ethnic disparities in adolescent soda consumption, but their impact appears to be too weak to reduce adolescent BMI percentile.

Economic and environmental benefits of higher-octane gasoline.

PubMed

Speth, Raymond L; Chow, Eric W; Malina, Robert; Barrett, Steven R H; Heywood, John B; Green, William H

2014-06-17

We quantify the economic and environmental benefits of designing U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) to attain higher fuel economy by utilizing higher octane (98 RON) gasoline. We use engine simulations, a review of experimental data, and drive cycle simulations to estimate the reduction in fuel consumption associated with using higher-RON gasoline in individual vehicles. Lifecycle CO2 emissions and economic impacts for the U.S. LDV fleet are estimated based on a linear-programming refinery model, a historically calibrated fleet model, and a well-to-wheels emissions analysis. We find that greater use of high-RON gasoline in appropriately tuned vehicles could reduce annual gasoline consumption in the U.S. by 3.0-4.4%. Accounting for the increase in refinery emissions from production of additional high-RON gasoline, net CO2 emissions are reduced by 19-35 Mt/y in 2040 (2.5-4.7% of total direct LDV CO2 emissions). For the strategies studied, the annual direct economic benefit is estimated to be $0.4-6.4 billion in 2040, and the annual net societal benefit including the social cost of carbon is estimated to be $1.7-8.8 billion in 2040. Adoption of a RON standard in the U.S. in place of the current antiknock index (AKI) may enable refineries to produce larger quantities of high-RON gasoline.

A Global 1 Degree by 1 Degree Distribution of Atmospheric/Soil CO2 Consumption by Continental Weathering and of Riverine HCO3 Yield (DB1012)

DOE Data Explorer

Suchet, Philippe Amiotte [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Center de Geochimie de la Surface, Strasbourg Cedex, France; Probst, Jean-Lue [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Center de Geochimie de la Surface, Strasbourg Cedex, France

1995-01-01

The mission of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) of Strasbourg Cedex, France is to study "The Global Carbon Cycle and its Perturbation by Man and Climate, the Terrestrial Biosphere". With the support of the Environment Programme of the European Communities, modeling of the spatial distribution of atmospheric-soil CO2 consumption by chemical weathering of continental rocks have been and are being conducted. One of the major results of these studies is a set of global maps which show the distribution of CO2 consumption (FCO2) and the transport of bicarbonate (FHCO3-) from rivers to the ocean, each in moles per kilometer squared per year (mol km2/yr). Continental weathering influences the geologic carbon cycle (Trabalka, 1985). The largest natural exchange fluxes of carbon occur between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biota, and between the atmosphere and the ocean surface waters (Houghton, et. al. 1990). River carbon input to the oceans is a component of the estimate of global air-sea CO2 fluxes (Sarminento and Sundquist 1992). It is estimated that about 0.3 gigatons of carbon per year (GtC/yr) are consumed by the chemical erosion of continental rocks and transferred as HCO3- to the oceans (Berner et. al. 1983; Meybeck 1987; and Probst 1992), while the flux of particulate and dissolved organic carbon transported by rivers to the oceans is estimated to be about 0.4 GtC/yr (Probst 1992). On the whole, about 0.7 GtC/yr are transferred by continental erosion from the soil-biosphere reservoir to the oceans. A model developed by Amiotte Suchet and Probst (1993) calculates the flux of atmospheric-soil CO2 consumed by the chemical erosion of continental rock (i.e., rock weathering) and the bicarbonate river transfer to the ocean. This model is based on a set of empirical relationships between FCO2 and the drainage (runoff) on the major rock types outcropping on the continents. The model assumes that the consumption of atmospheric CO2 by continental weathering is primarily influenced by drainage, and the different types of rocks outcropping the continents. This data base contains estimates of the net flux of atmospheric-soil CO2 (FCO2) produced by the Amiotte Suchet and Probst model and the associated bicarbonate river flux (FHCO3-). These variables are referenced to a 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude world grid. The grid contains 64,800 records (i.e. grid cells) originating at -180 degrees West longitude by -90 degrees North latitude, and extending to 180 degrees West longitude by 90 degrees North latitude.

Something from nothing: Estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies

PubMed Central

Büchs, Milena; Schnepf, Sylke V.

2017-01-01

Consumption surveys often record zero purchases of a good because of a short observation window. Measures of distribution are then precluded and only mean consumption rates can be inferred. We show that Propensity Score Matching can be applied to recover the distribution of consumption rates. We demonstrate the method using the UK National Travel Survey, in which c.40% of motorist households purchase no fuel. Estimated consumption rates are plausible judging by households’ annual mileages, and highly skewed. We apply the same approach to estimate CO2 emissions and outcomes of a carbon cap or tax. Reliance on means apparently distorts analysis of such policies because of skewness of the underlying distributions. The regressiveness of a simple tax or cap is overstated, and redistributive features of a revenue-neutral policy are understated. PMID:29020029

Quantifying the Risk of Human Toxoplasma gondii Infection Due to Consumption of Domestically Produced Lamb in the United States.

PubMed

Guo, Miao; Mishra, Abhinav; Buchanan, Robert L; Dubey, Jitender P; Hill, Dolores E; Gamble, H Ray; Pradhan, Abani K

2016-07-01

Toxoplasma gondii is a prevalent protozoan parasite worldwide. Human toxoplasmosis is responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in the United States, and meat products have been identified as an important source of T. gondii infections in humans. The goal of this study was to develop a farm-to-table quantitative microbial risk assessment model to predict the public health burden in the United States associated with consumption of U.S. domestically produced lamb. T. gondii prevalence in market lambs was pooled from the 2011 National Animal Health Monitoring System survey, and the concentration of the infectious life stage (bradyzoites) was calculated in the developed model. A log-linear regression and an exponential doseresponse model were used to model the reduction of T. gondii during home cooking and to predict the probability of infection, respectively. The mean probability of infection per serving of lamb was estimated to be 1.5 cases per 100,000 servings, corresponding to ∼6,300 new infections per year in the U.S. Based on the sensitivity analysis, we identified cooking as the most effective method to influence human health risk. This study provided a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework for T. gondii infection through consumption of lamb and quantified the infection risk and public health burden associated with lamb consumption.

Estimation of groundwater consumption by phreatophytes using diurnal water table fluctuations: A saturated‐unsaturated flow assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loheide, Steven P.; Butler, James J.; Gorelick, Steven M.

2005-01-01

Groundwater consumption by phreatophytes is a difficult‐to‐measure but important component of the water budget in many arid and semiarid environments. Over the past 70 years the consumptive use of groundwater by phreatophytes has been estimated using a method that analyzes diurnal trends in hydrographs from wells that are screened across the water table (White, 1932). The reliability of estimates obtained with this approach has never been rigorously evaluated using saturated‐unsaturated flow simulation. We present such an evaluation for common flow geometries and a range of hydraulic properties. Results indicate that the major source of error in the White method is the uncertainty in the estimate of specific yield. Evapotranspirative consumption of groundwater will often be significantly overpredicted with the White method if the effects of drainage time and the depth to the water table on specific yield are ignored. We utilize the concept of readily available specific yield as the basis for estimation of the specific yield value appropriate for use with the White method. Guidelines are defined for estimating readily available specific yield based on sediment texture. Use of these guidelines with the White method should enable the evapotranspirative consumption of groundwater to be more accurately quantified.

Effects of beverage alcohol price and tax levels on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies.

PubMed

Wagenaar, Alexander C; Salois, Matthew J; Komro, Kelli A

2009-02-01

We conducted a systematic review of studies examining relationships between measures of beverage alcohol tax or price levels and alcohol sales or self-reported drinking. A total of 112 studies of alcohol tax or price effects were found, containing 1003 estimates of the tax/price-consumption relationship. Studies included analyses of alternative outcome measures, varying subgroups of the population, several statistical models, and using different units of analysis. Multiple estimates were coded from each study, along with numerous study characteristics. Using reported estimates, standard errors, t-ratios, sample sizes and other statistics, we calculated the partial correlation for the relationship between alcohol price or tax and sales or drinking measures for each major model or subgroup reported within each study. Random-effects models were used to combine studies for inverse variance weighted overall estimates of the magnitude and significance of the relationship between alcohol tax/price and drinking. Simple means of reported elasticities are -0.46 for beer, -0.69 for wine and -0.80 for spirits. Meta-analytical results document the highly significant relationships (P < 0.001) between alcohol tax or price measures and indices of sales or consumption of alcohol (aggregate-level r = -0.17 for beer, -0.30 for wine, -0.29 for spirits and -0.44 for total alcohol). Price/tax also affects heavy drinking significantly (mean reported elasticity = -0.28, individual-level r = -0.01, P < 0.01), but the magnitude of effect is smaller than effects on overall drinking. A large literature establishes that beverage alcohol prices and taxes are related inversely to drinking. Effects are large compared to other prevention policies and programs. Public policies that raise prices of alcohol are an effective means to reduce drinking.

Avoidable cancers in the Nordic countries-The impact of alcohol consumption.

PubMed

Andersson, Therese M-L; Engholm, Gerda; Pukkala, Eero; Stenbeck, Magnus; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Storm, Hans; Weiderpass, Elisabete

2018-05-05

Alcohol consumption is an important and preventable cause of cancer. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden in the Nordic countries linked to alcohol and estimate the potential for cancer prevention by changes in alcohol consumption. Using the Prevent macro-simulation model, the number of cancer cases in the Nordic countries over a 30-year period (2016-2045) was modelled for six sites, under different scenarios of changing alcohol consumption, and compared to the projected number of cases if constant alcohol consumption prevailed. The studied sites were colorectal, post-menopausal breast, oral cavity and pharynx, liver, larynx as well as oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The alcohol consumption was based on the categories of non-drinkers/occasional drinkers, light drinkers (<=12.5 g alcohol per day), moderate drinkers (>12.5 and ≤ 50 g/day) and heavy drinkers (>50 g/day). About 83,000 cancer cases could be avoided in the Nordic countries in a 30-year period if alcohol consumption was entirely eliminated, which is 5.5% of the expected number of cases for the six alcohol-related cancer types. With a 50% reduction in the proportion with moderate alcohol consumption by year 2025, 21,500 cancer cases could be avoided. The number of avoidable cases was highest for post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancer, but the percentage was highest for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The results from this study can be used to understand the potential impact and significance of primary prevention programmes targeted towards reducing the alcohol consumption in the Nordic countries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association of coffee consumption with risk of colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Gan, Yong; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Shengchao; Li, Liqing; Cao, Shiyi; Mkandawire, Naomie; Ji, Kun; Herath, Chulani; Gao, Chao; Xu, Hong; Zhou, Yanfeng; Song, Xingyue; Chen, Shanquan; Chen, Yawen; Yang, Tingting; Li, Jing; Qiao, Yan; Hu, Sai; Yin, Xiaoxv; Lu, Zuxun

2017-03-21

A meta-analysis was performed to assess the association of coffee consumption with colorectal cancer and to investigate the shape of the association. Relevant prospective cohort studies were identified by a comprehensive search of the PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases from their inception through August 2015. Either a random-effects model or fixed-effects model was used to compute the pooled risk estimates when appropriate. Linear and nonlinear dose-response meta-analyses were also performed. Nineteen prospective cohort studies involving 2,046,575 participants and 22,629 patients with colorectal cancer were included. The risk of colon cancer was decreased by 7% for every 4 cups per day of coffee (RR=0.93, 95%CI, 0.88-0.99; P=0.199). There was a threshold approximately five cups of coffee per day, and the inverse association for colorectal cancer appeared to be stronger at a higher range of intake. However, a nonlinear association of rectal cancer with coffee consumption was not observed (P for nonlinearity = 0.214). In conclusion, coffee consumption is significantly associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer at ≥ 5 cups per day of coffee consumption. The findings support the recommendations of including coffee as a healthy beverage for the prevention of colorectal cancer.

Association of coffee consumption with risk of colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shengchao; Li, Liqing; Cao, Shiyi; Mkandawire, Naomie; Ji, Kun; Herath, Chulani; Gao, Chao; Xu, Hong; Zhou, Yanfeng; Song, Xingyue; Chen, Shanquan; Chen, Yawen; Yang, Tingting; Li, Jing; Qiao, Yan; Hu, Sai; Yin, Xiaoxv; Lu, Zuxun

2017-01-01

A meta-analysis was performed to assess the association of coffee consumption with colorectal cancer and to investigate the shape of the association. Relevant prospective cohort studies were identified by a comprehensive search of the PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases from their inception through August 2015. Either a random-effects model or fixed-effects model was used to compute the pooled risk estimates when appropriate. Linear and nonlinear dose-response meta-analyses were also performed. Nineteen prospective cohort studies involving 2,046,575 participants and 22,629 patients with colorectal cancer were included. The risk of colon cancer was decreased by 7% for every 4 cups per day of coffee (RR=0.93, 95%CI, 0.88-0.99; P=0.199). There was a threshold approximately five cups of coffee per day, and the inverse association for colorectal cancer appeared to be stronger at a higher range of intake. However, a nonlinear association of rectal cancer with coffee consumption was not observed (P for nonlinearity = 0.214). In conclusion, coffee consumption is significantly associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer at ≥ 5 cups per day of coffee consumption. The findings support the recommendations of including coffee as a healthy beverage for the prevention of colorectal cancer. PMID:27078843

Riparian vegetation and its water use during 1995 along the Mojave River, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lines, Gregory C.; Bilhorn, Thomas W.

1996-01-01

The extent and areal density of riparian vegetation, including both phreatophytes and hydrophytes, were mapped along the 100-mile main stem of the Mojave River during 1995. Mapping was aided by vertical false-color infrared and low-level oblique photographs. However, positive identification of plant species and plant physiological stress required field examination. The consumptive use of ground water and surface water by different areal densities of riparian plant communities along the main stem of the Mojave River was estimated using water-use data from a select group of studies in the southwestern United States. In the Alto subarea of the Mojave basin management area, consumptive water use during 1995 by riparian vegetation was estimated to be about 5,000 acre-feet upstream from the Lower Narrows and about 6,000 acre-feet downstream in the transition zone. In the Centro and Baja subareas, consumptive water use was estimated to be about 3,000 acre-feet and 2,000 acre-feet, respectively, during 1995. Consumptive water use by riparian vegetation in the Afton area, downstream from the Baja subarea, was estimated to be about 600 acre-feet during 1995. Consumptive water use by riparian vegetation during 1995 is considered representative of "normal" hydrologic conditions along the Mojave River. Barring major changes in the areal extent and density of riparian vegetation, the 1995 consumptive-use estimates should be fairly representative of riparian vegetation water use during most years. Annual consumptive use, however, could vary from the 1995 estimates as much as plus or minus 50 percent because of extreme hydrologic conditions (periods of high water table following extraordinarily large runoff in the Mojave River or periods of extended drought).

Decreasing the Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in South Africa: The Impact of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages

PubMed Central

Manyema, Mercy; Veerman, J. Lennert; Chola, Lumbwe; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Labadarios, Demetre; Hofman, Karen

2015-01-01

Introduction Type 2 diabetes poses an increasing public health burden in South Africa (SA) with obesity as the main driver of the epidemic. Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) is linked to weight gain and reducing SSB consumption may significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the burden of diabetes in SA. Methods and Findings We constructed a life table-based model in Microsoft Excel (2010). Consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations were used to estimate changes in daily energy intake and its projected impact on BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Diabetes relative risk and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on diabetes burden. Diabetes cost estimates were obtained from the South African Council for Medical Schemes. Over 20 years, a 20% SSB tax could reduce diabetes incident cases by 106 000 in women (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 70 000–142 000) and by 54 000 in men (95% UI: 33 000–80 000); and prevalence in all adults by 4.0% (95% UI: 2.7%-5.3%). Cumulatively over twenty years, approximately 21 000 (95% UI: 14 000–29 000) adult T2DM-related deaths, 374 000 DALYs attributed to T2DM (95% UI: 299 000–463 000) and over ZAR10 billion T2DM healthcare costs (95% UI: ZAR6.8–14.0 billion) equivalent to USD860 million (95% UI: USD570 million–USD1.2 billion) may be averted. Conclusion Fiscal policy on SSBs has the potential to mitigate the diabetes epidemic in South Africa and contribute to the National Department of Health goals stated in the National NCD strategic plan. PMID:26575644

Chlorination of humic materials: Byproduct formation and chemical interpretations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reckhow, D.A.; Singer, P.C.; Malcolm, R.L.

1990-01-01

Ten aquatic humic and fulvic acids were isolated and studied with respect to their reaction with chlorine. Yields of TOX, chloroform, trichloroacetic acid, dichloroacetic acid, dichloroacetonitrile, and 1,1,1-trichloropropanone were measured at pH 7 and 12. Humic acids produced higher concentrations than their corresponding fulvic acids of all byproducts except 1,1,1-trichloropropanone. Chlorine consumption and byproduct formation were related to fundamental chemical characteristics of the humic materials. A statistical model was proposed for activated aromatic content based on 13C NMR and base titration data. The values estimated from this model were found to be well correlated with chlorine consumption. Specific byproduct formation was related to UV absorbance, nitrogen content, or the activated aromatic content. ?? 1990 American Chemical Society.

Added sugars and periodontal disease in young adults: an analysis of NHANES III data.

PubMed

Lula, Estevam C O; Ribeiro, Cecilia C C; Hugo, Fernando N; Alves, Cláudia M C; Silva, Antônio A M

2014-10-01

Added sugar consumption seems to trigger a hyperinflammatory state and may result in visceral adiposity, dyslipidemia, and insulin resistance. These conditions are risk factors for periodontal disease. However, the role of sugar intake in the cause of periodontal disease has not been adequately studied. We evaluated the association between the frequency of added sugar consumption and periodontal disease in young adults by using NHANES III data. Data from 2437 young adults (aged 18-25 y) who participated in NHANES III (1988-1994) were analyzed. We estimated the frequency of added sugar consumption by using food-frequency questionnaire responses. We considered periodontal disease to be present in teeth with bleeding on probing and a probing depth ≥3 mm at one or more sites. We evaluated this outcome as a discrete variable in Poisson regression models and as a categorical variable in multinomial logistic regression models adjusted for sex, age, race-ethnicity, education, poverty-income ratio, tobacco exposure, previous diagnosis of diabetes, and body mass index. A high consumption of added sugars was associated with a greater prevalence of periodontal disease in middle [prevalence ratio (PR): 1.39; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.89] and upper (PR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.85) tertiles of consumption in the adjusted Poisson regression model. The upper tertile of added sugar intake was associated with periodontal disease in ≥2 teeth (PR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.52) but not with periodontal disease in only one tooth (PR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.54, 1.34) in the adjusted multinomial logistic regression model. A high frequency of consumption of added sugars is associated with periodontal disease, independent of traditional risk factors, suggesting that this consumption pattern may contribute to the systemic inflammation observed in periodontal disease and associated noncommunicable diseases. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

Energy use of televisions and video cassette recorders in the U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meier, Alan; Rosen, Karen

1999-03-01

In an effort to more accurately determine nationwide energy consumption, the U.S. Department of Energy has recently commissioned studies with the goal of improving its understanding of the energy use of appliances in the miscellaneous end-use category. This study presents an estimate of the residential energy consumption of two of the most common domestic appliances in the miscellaneous end-use category: color televisions (TVs) and video cassette recorders (VCRs). The authors used a bottom-up approach in estimating national TV and VCR energy consumption. First, they obtained estimates of stock and usage from national surveys, while TV and VCR power measurements andmore » other data were recorded at repair and retail shops. Industry-supplied shipment and sales distributions were then used to minimize bias in the power measurement samples. To estimate national TV and VCR energy consumption values, ranges of power draw and mode usage were created to represent situations in homes with more than one unit. Average energy use values for homes with one unit, two units, etc. were calculated and summed to provide estimates of total national TV and VCR energy consumption.« less

Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis in Canadian broiler chicken breast from retail to consumption.

PubMed

Smadi, Hanan; Sargeant, Jan M

2013-02-01

The current quantitative risk assessment model followed the framework proposed by the Codex Alimentarius to provide an estimate of the risk of human salmonellosis due to consumption of chicken breasts which were bought from Canadian retail stores and prepared in Canadian domestic kitchens. The model simulated the level of Salmonella contamination on chicken breasts throughout the retail-to-table pathway. The model used Canadian input parameter values, where available, to represent risk of salmonellosis. From retail until consumption, changes in the concentration of Salmonella on each chicken breast were modeled using equations for growth and inactivation. The model predicted an average of 318 cases of salmonellosis per 100,000 consumers per year. Potential reasons for this overestimation were discussed. A sensitivity analysis showed that concentration of Salmonella on chicken breasts at retail and food hygienic practices in private kitchens such as cross-contamination due to not washing cutting boards (or utensils) and hands after handling raw meat along with inadequate cooking contributed most significantly to the risk of human salmonellosis. The outcome from this model emphasizes that responsibility for protection from Salmonella hazard on chicken breasts is a shared responsibility. Data needed for a comprehensive Canadian Salmonella risk assessment were identified for future research. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

EDMONDS, JAMES A.; LINK, ROBERT; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T.

Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-seriesmore » observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.« less

Life cycle assessment modelling of waste-to-energy incineration in Spain and Portugal.

PubMed

Margallo, M; Aldaco, R; Irabien, A; Carrillo, V; Fischer, M; Bala, A; Fullana, P

2014-06-01

In recent years, waste management systems have been evaluated using a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. A main shortcoming of prior studies was the focus on a mixture of waste with different characteristics. The estimation of emissions and consumptions associated with each waste fraction in these studies presented allocation problems. Waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration is a clear example in which municipal solid waste (MSW), comprising many types of materials, is processed to produce several outputs. This paper investigates an approach to better understand incineration processes in Spain and Portugal by applying a multi-input/output allocation model. The application of this model enabled predictions of WTE inputs and outputs, including the consumption of ancillary materials and combustibles, air emissions, solid wastes, and the energy produced during the combustion of each waste fraction. © The Author(s) 2014.

Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS): effects of container size adjustments on estimates of alcohol consumption across Hispanic national groups.

PubMed

Caetano, Raul; Mills, Britain A; Harris, T Robert

2012-01-01

This study was conducted to examine discrepancies in alcohol consumption estimates between a self-reported standard quantity-frequency measure and an adjusted version based on respondents' typically used container size. Using a multistage cluster sample design, 5,224 Hispanic individuals 18 years of age and older were selected from the household population in five metropolitan areas of the United States: Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Houston, and Los Angeles. The survey-weighted response rate was 76%. Personal interviews lasting an average of 1 hour were conducted in respondents' homes in either English or Spanish. The overall effect of container adjustment was to increase estimates of ethanol consumption by 68% for women (range across Hispanic groups: 17%-99%) and 30% for men (range: 14%-42%). With the exception of female Cuban American, Mexican American, and South/Central American beer drinkers and male Cuban American wine drinkers, all percentage differences between unadjusted and container-adjusted estimates were positive. Second, container adjustments produced the largest change for volume of distilled spirits, followed by wine and beer. Container size adjustments generally produced larger percentage increases in consumption estimates for the higher volume drinkers, especially the upper tertile of female drinkers. Self-reported alcohol consumption based on standard drinks underreports consumption when compared with reports based on the amount of alcohol poured into commonly used containers.

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... OTHER PRODUCTS REQUIRED UNDER THE ENERGY POLICY AND CONSERVATION ACT (âAPPLIANCE LABELING RULEâ) Testing... water use rates of covered products are those found in the following standards: (1) Showerheads and... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5...

Applicability of western chemical dietary exposure models to the Chinese population.

PubMed

Zhao, Shizhen; Price, Oliver; Liu, Zhengtao; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

2015-07-01

A range of exposure models, which have been developed in Europe and North America, are playing an increasingly important role in priority setting and the risk assessment of chemicals. However, the applicability of these tools, which are based on Western dietary exposure pathways, to estimate chemical exposure to the Chinese population to support the development of a risk-based environment and exposure assessment, is unclear. Three frequently used modelling tools, EUSES, RAIDAR and ACC-HUMANsteady, have been evaluated in terms of human dietary exposure estimation by application to a range of chemicals with different physicochemical properties under both model default and Chinese dietary scenarios. Hence, the modelling approaches were assessed by considering dietary pattern differences only. The predicted dietary exposure pathways were compared under both scenarios using a range of hypothetical and current emerging contaminants. Although the differences across models are greater than those between dietary scenarios, model predictions indicated that dietary preference can have a significant impact on human exposure, with the relatively high consumption of vegetables and cereals resulting in higher exposure via plants-based foodstuffs under Chinese consumption patterns compared to Western diets. The selected models demonstrated a good ability to identify key dietary exposure pathways which can be used for screening purposes and an evaluative risk assessment. However, some model adaptations will be required to cover a number of important Chinese exposure pathways, such as freshwater farmed-fish, grains and pork. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Averting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes in India through Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxation: An Economic-Epidemiologic Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Basu, Sanjay; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Agrawal, Sutapa; Stuckler, David; Popkin, Barry; Ebrahim, Shah

2014-01-01

Background Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population. Methods and Findings Using consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%–5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%–1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014–2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5–10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0–2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014–2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations. Conclusion Sustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24409102

50 CFR 300.181 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... filing of an entry summary for consumption with customs authorities, in proper form, with estimated duties attached. Entry for consumption, for purposes of this subpart, has the same meaning as entry for consumption, withdrawal from warehouse for consumption, or entry for consumption of merchandise from a foreign...

50 CFR 300.181 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... filing of an entry summary for consumption with customs authorities, in proper form, with estimated duties attached. Entry for consumption, for purposes of this subpart, has the same meaning as entry for consumption, withdrawal from warehouse for consumption, or entry for consumption of merchandise from a foreign...

50 CFR 300.181 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... filing of an entry summary for consumption with customs authorities, in proper form, with estimated duties attached. Entry for consumption, for purposes of this subpart, has the same meaning as entry for consumption, withdrawal from warehouse for consumption, or entry for consumption of merchandise from a foreign...

Association between Smoking Status and Food and Nutrient Consumption in Japanese: a Large-Scale Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Endoh, Kaori; Kuriki, Kiyonori; Kasezawa, Nobuhiko; Tohyama, Kazushige; Goda, Toshinao

2015-01-01

In Japan, in comparison with the rest of the world the death rate of lung cancer is low although the smoking rate is relatively high. This is the so-called "Japanese smoking paradox". A healthy diet is proposed to attenuate the risk without quitting smoking. We here examined the relationships between smoking status (SS) and the consumption of food and nutrient in Japan. Totals of 5,587 men and 2,718 women were divided into three (non-smokers, smokers and heavy smokers) and two (non-smokers and smokers) groups, respectively, according to pack-year, which represents the amount of smoking over a long period. Food and nutrient consumption was estimated with a validated food frequency questionnaire. Using general linear models, food and nutrient consumption was estimated for each group in men and women, separately. In men, SS was positively related to consumption of rice, 3 alcoholic beverages, carbohydrate, alcohol and other 8 foods/nutrients (p<0.05 for all) and negatively to those of protein animal, fat, fatty acids, dietary fiber, isoflavones and 36 other foods/nutrients (p<0.05 for all). In women, SS was positively associated with intake of 13 foods/nutrients, while being negatively associated with those of rice, energy, dietary fiber, and 14 other foods/nutrients (p<0.05 for all). Our results support lower intake of vegetables and fruits rich in antioxidants, which are thought as preventive factors for many diseases, in smokers.

Alcohol demand and risk preference.

PubMed

Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

2008-12-01

Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6-8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use.

Effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol on different income and socioeconomic groups: a modelling study

PubMed Central

Holmes, John; Meng, Yang; Meier, Petra S; Brennan, Alan; Angus, Colin; Campbell-Burton, Alexia; Guo, Yelan; Hill-McManus, Daniel; Purshouse, Robin C

2014-01-01

Summary Background Several countries are considering a minimum price policy for alcohol, but concerns exist about the potential effects on drinkers with low incomes. We aimed to assess the effect of a £0·45 minimum unit price (1 unit is 8 g/10 mL ethanol) in England across the income and socioeconomic distributions. Methods We used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM) version 2.6, a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model, to assess effects of a minimum unit price policy. SAPM accounts for alcohol purchasing and consumption preferences for population subgroups including income and socioeconomic groups. Purchasing preferences are regarded as the types and volumes of alcohol beverages, prices paid, and the balance between on-trade (eg, bars) and off-trade (eg, shops). We estimated price elasticities from 9 years of survey data and did sensitivity analyses with alternative elasticities. We assessed effects of the policy on moderate, hazardous, and harmful drinkers, split into three socioeconomic groups (living in routine or manual households, intermediate households, and managerial or professional households). We examined policy effects on alcohol consumption, spending, rates of alcohol-related health harm, and opportunity costs associated with that harm. Rates of harm and costs were estimated for a 10 year period after policy implementation. We adjusted baseline rates of mortality and morbidity to account for differential risk between socioeconomic groups. Findings Overall, a minimum unit price of £0·45 led to an immediate reduction in consumption of 1·6% (−11·7 units per drinker per year) in our model. Moderate drinkers were least affected in terms of consumption (−3·8 units per drinker per year for the lowest income quintile vs 0·8 units increase for the highest income quintile) and spending (increase in spending of £0·04 vs £1·86 per year). The greatest behavioural changes occurred in harmful drinkers (change in consumption of −3·7% or −138·2 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £4·01), especially in the lowest income quintile (−7·6% or −299·8 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £34·63) compared with the highest income quintile (−1·0% or −34·3 units, with an increase in spending of £16·35). Estimated health benefits from the policy were also unequally distributed. Individuals in the lowest socioeconomic group (living in routine or manual worker households and comprising 41·7% of the sample population) would accrue 81·8% of reductions in premature deaths and 87·1% of gains in terms of quality-adjusted life-years. Interpretation Irrespective of income, moderate drinkers were little affected by a minimum unit price of £0·45 in our model, with the greatest effects noted for harmful drinkers. Because harmful drinkers on low incomes purchase more alcohol at less than the minimum unit price threshold compared with other groups, they would be affected most by this policy. Large reductions in consumption in this group would however coincide with substantial health gains in terms of morbidity and mortality related to reduced alcohol consumption. Funding UK Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council (grant G1000043). PMID:24522180

Effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol on different income and socioeconomic groups: a modelling study.

PubMed

Holmes, John; Meng, Yang; Meier, Petra S; Brennan, Alan; Angus, Colin; Campbell-Burton, Alexia; Guo, Yelan; Hill-McManus, Daniel; Purshouse, Robin C

2014-05-10

Several countries are considering a minimum price policy for alcohol, but concerns exist about the potential effects on drinkers with low incomes. We aimed to assess the effect of a £0·45 minimum unit price (1 unit is 8 g/10 mL ethanol) in England across the income and socioeconomic distributions. We used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM) version 2.6, a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model, to assess effects of a minimum unit price policy. SAPM accounts for alcohol purchasing and consumption preferences for population subgroups including income and socioeconomic groups. Purchasing preferences are regarded as the types and volumes of alcohol beverages, prices paid, and the balance between on-trade (eg, bars) and off-trade (eg, shops). We estimated price elasticities from 9 years of survey data and did sensitivity analyses with alternative elasticities. We assessed effects of the policy on moderate, hazardous, and harmful drinkers, split into three socioeconomic groups (living in routine or manual households, intermediate households, and managerial or professional households). We examined policy effects on alcohol consumption, spending, rates of alcohol-related health harm, and opportunity costs associated with that harm. Rates of harm and costs were estimated for a 10 year period after policy implementation. We adjusted baseline rates of mortality and morbidity to account for differential risk between socioeconomic groups. Overall, a minimum unit price of £0.45 led to an immediate reduction in consumption of 1.6% (-11.7 units per drinker per year) in our model. Moderate drinkers were least affected in terms of consumption (-3.8 units per drinker per year for the lowest income quintile vs 0.8 units increase for the highest income quintile) and spending (increase in spending of £0.04 vs £1.86 per year). The greatest behavioural changes occurred in harmful drinkers (change in consumption of -3.7% or -138.2 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £4.01), especially in the lowest income quintile (-7.6% or -299.8 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £34.63) compared with the highest income quintile (-1.0% or -34.3 units, with an increase in spending of £16.35). Estimated health benefits from the policy were also unequally distributed. Individuals in the lowest socioeconomic group (living in routine or manual worker households and comprising 41.7% of the sample population) would accrue 81.8% of reductions in premature deaths and 87.1% of gains in terms of quality-adjusted life-years. Irrespective of income, moderate drinkers were little affected by a minimum unit price of £0.45 in our model, with the greatest effects noted for harmful drinkers. Because harmful drinkers on low incomes purchase more alcohol at less than the minimum unit price threshold compared with other groups, they would be affected most by this policy. Large reductions in consumption in this group would however coincide with substantial health gains in terms of morbidity and mortality related to reduced alcohol consumption. UK Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council (grant G1000043). Copyright © 2014 Holmes et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The association of Self-concept with Substance Abuse and Problematic Use of Video Games in University Students: A Structural Equation Model.

PubMed

Chacón Cuberos, Ramón; Zurita Ortega, Félix; Castro Sánchez, Manuel; Espejo Garcés, Tamara; Martínez Martínez, Asunción; Ruiz-Rico Ruiz, Gerardo

2017-07-14

This study aims to define and contrast an explanatory model of consumption of alcohol, tobacco consumption, and problematic use of video games based on self-concept and its dimensions in a sample of university students. The research was conducted with a sample of 490 students from the province of Granada (Spain), aged between 20 and 29 years (M = 22.80 ± 3.63), with a homogeneous distribution by gender. The instruments used were the Self-concept Form-5 Questionnaire (García & Musitu, 1999), the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (Saunders, Aasland, Babor, De la Fuente, & Grant, 1993), the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (Heatherton, Kozlowski, Frecker, & Fagerström, 1991) and the Questionnaire for Experiences Related to Video Games (Chamarro et al., 2014). A model of structural equations was estimated, which was adjusted properly, χ2(8) = 19.843, p = .011; CFI = .963, NFI = .943, IFI = .965, RMSEA = .055. As main results, a positive relationship between social and physical self-concept and consumption of alcohol was obtained, as well as a negative relationship between social self-concept and problematic use of videogames. Academic dimension was negatively related to alcohol and video game use. Furthermore, alcohol consumption was positively related to tobacco consumption and use of video games. It is concluded that levels of self-concept may represent a risk factor in substance abuse and digital leisure, and their study and consideration are appropriate.

Russia-specific relative risks and their effects on the estimated alcohol-attributable burden of disease.

PubMed

Shield, Kevin D; Rehm, Jürgen

2015-05-10

Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the burden of disease globally. This burden is estimated using Relative Risk (RR) functions for alcohol from meta-analyses that use data from all countries; however, for Russia and surrounding countries, country-specific risk data may need to be used. The objective of this paper is to compare the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using Russia-specific alcohol RRs with the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using alcohol RRs from meta-analyses. Data for 2012 on drinking indicators were calculated based on the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Data for 2012 on mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost by cause were obtained by country from the World Health Organization. Alcohol Population-Attributable Fractions (PAFs) were calculated based on a risk modelling methodology from Russia. These PAFs were compared to PAFs calculated using methods applied for all other countries. The 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs) for the alcohol PAFs were calculated using a Monte Carlo-like method. Using Russia-specific alcohol RR functions, in Russia in 2012 alcohol caused an estimated 231,900 deaths (95% UI: 185,600 to 278,200) (70,800 deaths among women and 161,100 deaths among men) and 13,295,000 DALYs lost (95% UI: 11,242,000 to 15,348,000) (3,670,000 DALYs lost among women and 9,625,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age. This compares to an estimated 165,600 deaths (95% UI: 97,200 to 228,100) (29,700 deaths among women and 135,900 deaths among men) and 10,623,000 DALYs lost (95% UI: 7,265,000 to 13,754,000) (1,783,000 DALYs lost among women and 8,840,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age caused by alcohol when non-Russia-specific alcohol RRs were used. Results indicate that if the Russia-specific RRs are used when estimating the health burden attributable to alcohol consumption in Russia, then the total estimated burden will be more than if RRs from meta-analyses are used. Furthermore, additional research is needed to understand which aspects of the Russian style of drinking cause the most harm.

Relationships between nicotine and cotinine concentrations in maternal milk and saliva.

PubMed

Jacob, Nelly; Golmard, Jean-Louis; Berlin, Ivan

2015-08-01

Breastfeeding may be impaired due to nicotine excreted into the milk of smoking mothers. We investigated the relationships between nicotine and cotinine concentrations in maternal milk and saliva among breastfeeding smokers. The 41 mothers reported their cigarette consumption between waking up and milk and saliva sampling. The median sampling time took place four days after delivery. Nicotine and cotinine concentrations were determined by liquid chromatography and UV detection, after a single-step saliva or three-step milk liquid-to-liquid extraction. The median (interquartile range) concentrations in milk and saliva were 7 (6-22) and 27 (4-207) μg/L for nicotine and 24 (5-111) and 22 (4-120) μg/L for cotinine, respectively. Milk cotinine was positively associated with saliva cotinine (p < 0.0001) and cigarette consumption (p = 0.039) and inversely associated with the time since the last cigarette (p = 0.0004, model R(2) = 0.90). Milk nicotine was associated with saliva nicotine concentration (p = 0.0017) and cigarette consumption (p = 0.0023, model R(2) = 0.63). Saliva nicotine concentration was not a very good estimate of milk nicotine concentration in breastfeeding mothers. Saliva cotinine concentration may be used instead of milk cotinine concentration to estimate tobacco or nicotine exposure among breastfed neonates or infants. ©2015 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effectiveness of a Parent Health Report in Increasing Fruit and Vegetable Consumption Among Preschoolers and Kindergarteners.

PubMed

Hunsaker, Sanita L; Jensen, Chad D

2017-05-01

To determine the effectiveness of a parent health report on fruit and vegetable consumption among preschoolers and kindergarteners. Pre-post open design trial and a randomized controlled trial. A university-sponsored preschool and kindergarten. A total of 63 parents of preschool and kindergarten students participated in the pre-post open design trial and 65 parents participated in the randomized controlled trial. Parents in intervention groups were given a parent health report providing information about their child's fruit and vegetable intake as well as recommendations for how to increase their child's fruit and vegetable consumption. Change in fruit and vegetable consumption. Latent growth curve modeling with Bayesian estimation. Vegetable consumption increased by 0.3 servings/d in the open trial and 0.65 servings/d in the randomized trial. Fruit consumption did not increase significantly in either study. Results from both an open trial and a randomized controlled trial suggested that the parent health report may be a beneficial tool to increase vegetable consumption in preschoolers and kindergarteners. Increases in vegetable consumption can lead to the establishment of lifelong habits of healthy vegetable intake and decrease risk for chronic diseases. Copyright © 2017 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NEMS Freight Transportation Module Improvement Study

EIA Publications

2015-01-01

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) contracted with IHS Global, Inc. (IHS) to analyze the relationship between the value of industrial output, physical output, and freight movement in the United States for use in updating analytic assumptions and modeling structure within the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) freight transportation module, including forecasting methodologies and processes to identify possible alternative approaches that would improve multi-modal freight flow and fuel consumption estimation.

Policy Effects in Hyperbolic vs. Exponential Models of Consumption and Retirement

PubMed Central

Gustman, Alan L.; Steinmeier, Thomas L.

2012-01-01

This paper constructs a structural retirement model with hyperbolic preferences and uses it to estimate the effect of several potential Social Security policy changes. Estimated effects of policies are compared using two models, one with hyperbolic preferences and one with standard exponential preferences. Sophisticated hyperbolic discounters may accumulate substantial amounts of wealth for retirement. We find it is frequently difficult to distinguish empirically between models with the two types of preferences on the basis of asset accumulation paths or consumption paths around the period of retirement. Simulations suggest that, despite the much higher initial time preference rate, individuals with hyperbolic preferences may actually value a real annuity more than individuals with exponential preferences who have accumulated roughly equal amounts of assets. This appears to be especially true for individuals with relatively high time preference rates or who have low assets for whatever reason. This affects the tradeoff between current benefits and future benefits on which many of the retirement incentives of the Social Security system rest. Simulations involving increasing the early entitlement age and increasing the delayed retirement credit do not show a great deal of difference whether exponential or hyperbolic preferences are used, but simulations for eliminating the earnings test show a non-trivially greater effect when exponential preferences are used. PMID:22711946

Policy Effects in Hyperbolic vs. Exponential Models of Consumption and Retirement.

PubMed

Gustman, Alan L; Steinmeier, Thomas L

2012-06-01

This paper constructs a structural retirement model with hyperbolic preferences and uses it to estimate the effect of several potential Social Security policy changes. Estimated effects of policies are compared using two models, one with hyperbolic preferences and one with standard exponential preferences. Sophisticated hyperbolic discounters may accumulate substantial amounts of wealth for retirement. We find it is frequently difficult to distinguish empirically between models with the two types of preferences on the basis of asset accumulation paths or consumption paths around the period of retirement. Simulations suggest that, despite the much higher initial time preference rate, individuals with hyperbolic preferences may actually value a real annuity more than individuals with exponential preferences who have accumulated roughly equal amounts of assets. This appears to be especially true for individuals with relatively high time preference rates or who have low assets for whatever reason. This affects the tradeoff between current benefits and future benefits on which many of the retirement incentives of the Social Security system rest.Simulations involving increasing the early entitlement age and increasing the delayed retirement credit do not show a great deal of difference whether exponential or hyperbolic preferences are used, but simulations for eliminating the earnings test show a non-trivially greater effect when exponential preferences are used.

SPS market analysis. [small solar thermal power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goff, H. C.

1980-01-01

A market analysis task included personal interviews by GE personnel and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective small solar thermal power systems (SPS) users. Over 500 firms were contacted, including three ownership classes of electric utilities, industrial firms in the top SIC codes for energy consumption, and design engineering firms. A market demand model was developed which utilizes the data base developed by personal interviews and surveys, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential markets for SPS.

Estimation of Breast Cancer Incident Cases and Medical Care Costs Attributable to Alcohol Consumption Among Insured Women Aged <45 Years in the U.S.

PubMed

Ekwueme, Donatus U; Allaire, Benjamin T; Parish, William J; Thomas, Cheryll C; Poehler, Diana; Guy, Gery P; Aldridge, Arnie P; Lahoti, Sejal R; Fairley, Temeika L; Trogdon, Justin G

2017-09-01

This study estimated the percentage of breast cancer cases, total number of incident cases, and total annual medical care costs attributable to alcohol consumption among insured younger women (aged 18-44 years) by type of insurance and stage at diagnosis. The study used the 2012-2013 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, cancer incidence data from two national registry programs, and published relative risk measures to estimate the: (1) alcohol-attributable fraction of breast cancer cases among younger women by insurance type; (2) total number of breast cancer incident cases attributable to alcohol consumption by stage at diagnosis and insurance type among younger women; and (3) total annual medical care costs of treating breast cancer incident cases attributable to alcohol consumption among younger women. Analyses were conducted in 2016; costs were expressed in 2014 U.S. dollars. Among younger women enrolled in Medicaid, private insurance, and both groups, 8.7% (95% CI=7.4%, 10.0%), 13.8% (95% CI=13.3%, 14.4%), and 12.3% (95% CI=11.4%, 13.1%) of all breast cancer cases, respectively, were attributable to alcohol consumption. Localized stage was the largest proportion of estimated attributable incident cases. The estimated total number of breast cancer incident alcohol-attributable cases was 1,636 (95% CI=1,570, 1,703) and accounted for estimated total annual medical care costs of $148.4 million (95% CI=$140.6 million, $156.1 million). Alcohol-attributable breast cancer has estimated medical care costs of nearly $150 million per year. The current findings could be used to support evidence-based interventions to reduce alcohol consumption in younger women. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Water use in Georgia by county for 2005; and water-use trends, 1980-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fanning, Julia L.; Trent, Victoria P.

2009-01-01

Consumptive water use was determined for each category of use and compiled for each county. Estimation techniques vary for each water-use category. While consumptive use varied for each county in 2005, from about 1 percent to nearly 100 percent of total withdrawals, consumptive-use estimates for the entire State totaled 1,310 Mgal/d, about 24 percent of total withdrawals.

A Machine Learning Method for Power Prediction on the Mobile Devices.

PubMed

Chen, Da-Ren; Chen, You-Shyang; Chen, Lin-Chih; Hsu, Ming-Yang; Chiang, Kai-Feng

2015-10-01

Energy profiling and estimation have been popular areas of research in multicore mobile architectures. While short sequences of system calls have been recognized by machine learning as pattern descriptions for anomalous detection, power consumption of running processes with respect to system-call patterns are not well studied. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy neural network (FNN) for training and analyzing process execution behaviour with respect to series of system calls, parameters and their power consumptions. On the basis of the patterns of a series of system calls, we develop a power estimation daemon (PED) to analyze and predict the energy consumption of the running process. In the initial stage, PED categorizes sequences of system calls as functional groups and predicts their energy consumptions by FNN. In the operational stage, PED is applied to identify the predefined sequences of system calls invoked by running processes and estimates their energy consumption.

Alcohol advertising bans and alcohol abuse.

PubMed

Young, D J

1993-07-01

Henry Saffer [Saffer (1991) Journal of Health Economics 10, 65-79] concludes that bans on broadcast advertising for alcoholic beverages reduce total alcohol consumption, motor vehicle fatalities, and cirrhosis deaths. A reexamination of his data and procedures reveals a number of flaws. First, there is evidence of reverse causation: countries with low consumption/death rates tend to adopt advertising bans, creating a (spurious) negative correlation between bans and consumption/death rates. Second, even this correlation largely disappears when the estimates are corrected for serial correlation. Third, estimates based on the components of consumption--spirits, beer and wine--mostly indicate that bans are associated with increased consumption.

Quantifying the global contribution of alcohol consumption to cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Manthey, Jakob; Imtiaz, Sameer; Neufeld, Maria; Rylett, Margaret; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-05-25

The global impact of alcohol consumption on deaths due to cardiomyopathy (CM) has not been quantified to date, even though CM contains a subcategory for alcoholic CM with an effect of heavy drinking over time as the postulated underlying causal mechanism. In this feasibility study, a model to estimate the alcohol-attributable fraction (AAF) of CM deaths based on alcohol exposure measures is proposed. A two-step model was developed based on aggregate-level data from 95 countries, including the most populous (data from 2013 or last available year). First, the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM per 1,000,000 adults was predicted using a negative binomial regression based on prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) and adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC) (n = 52 countries). Second, the proportion of alcoholic CM among all CM deaths (i.e., AAF) was predicted using a fractional response probit regression with alcoholic CM crude mortality rate (from Step 1), AUD prevalence, APC per drinker, and Global Burden of Disease region as predictions. Additional models repeated these steps by sex and for the wider Global Burden of Disease study definition of CM. There were strong correlations (>0.9) between the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM and the AAFs, supporting the modeling strategy. In the first step, the population-weighted mean crude mortality rate was estimated at 8.4 alcoholic CM deaths per 1,000,000 (95% CI: 7.4-9.3). In the second step, the global AAFs were estimated at 6.9% (95% CI: 5.4-8.4%). Sex-specific figures suggested a lower AAF among females (2.9%, 95% CI: 2.3-3.4%) as compared to males (8.9%, 95% CI: 7.0-10.7%). Larger deviations between observed and predicted AAFs were found in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The model proposed promises to fill the gap to include AAFs for CM into comparative risk assessments in the future. These predictions likely will be underestimates because of the stigma involved in all fully alcohol-attributable conditions and subsequent problems in coding of alcoholic CM deaths.

Consumption of Pornography, Perceived Peer Norms, and Condomless Sex.

PubMed

Wright, Paul J; Tokunaga, Robert S; Kraus, Ashley

2016-08-01

Sexual scripts in pornography rarely include condoms. Many U.S. college students consume pornography and have unprotected sex. Yet no study appears to have investigated whether pornography consumption is correlated with having unprotected sex among U.S. college students. This article reports results from two studies of pornography consumption and condomless sex among U.S. college students. Pornography consumption was directly associated with a higher likelihood of condomless sex in study 1. This finding was replicated in study 2. Study 2 also explored whether perceptions of peers' use of condoms partially mediates the association between pornography consumption and condomless sex. Pornography consumption was associated with lower estimations of peers' condom use, and lower estimations of peers' condom use were associated with personally engaging in condomless sex.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis of fish and EPA+DHA consumption in 17 US and European cohorts.

PubMed

Mozaffarian, Dariush; Dashti, Hassan S; Wojczynski, Mary K; Chu, Audrey Y; Nettleton, Jennifer A; Männistö, Satu; Kristiansson, Kati; Reedik, Mägi; Lahti, Jari; Houston, Denise K; Cornelis, Marilyn C; van Rooij, Frank J A; Dimitriou, Maria; Kanoni, Stavroula; Mikkilä, Vera; Steffen, Lyn M; de Oliveira Otto, Marcia C; Qi, Lu; Psaty, Bruce; Djousse, Luc; Rotter, Jerome I; Harald, Kennet; Perola, Markus; Rissanen, Harri; Jula, Antti; Krista, Fischer; Mihailov, Evelin; Feitosa, Mary F; Ngwa, Julius S; Xue, Luting; Jacques, Paul F; Perälä, Mia-Maria; Palotie, Aarno; Liu, Yongmei; Nalls, Nike A; Ferrucci, Luigi; Hernandez, Dena; Manichaikul, Ani; Tsai, Michael Y; Kiefte-de Jong, Jessica C; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Rallidis, Loukianos; Ridker, Paul M; Rose, Lynda M; Buring, Julie E; Lehtimäki, Terho; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Lemaitre, Rozenn; Salomaa, Veikko; Knekt, Paul; Metspalu, Andres; Borecki, Ingrid B; Cupples, L Adrienne; Eriksson, Johan G; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Bandinelli, Stefania; Siscovick, David; Franco, Oscar H; Deloukas, Panos; Dedoussis, George; Chasman, Daniel I; Raitakari, Olli; Tanaka, Toshiko

2017-01-01

Regular fish and omega-3 consumption may have several health benefits and are recommended by major dietary guidelines. Yet, their intakes remain remarkably variable both within and across populations, which could partly owe to genetic influences. To identify common genetic variants that influence fish and dietary eicosapentaenoic acid plus docosahexaenoic acid (EPA+DHA) consumption. We conducted genome-wide association (GWA) meta-analysis of fish (n = 86,467) and EPA+DHA (n = 62,265) consumption in 17 cohorts of European descent from the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) Consortium Nutrition Working Group. Results from cohort-specific GWA analyses (additive model) for fish and EPA+DHA consumption were adjusted for age, sex, energy intake, and population stratification, and meta-analyzed separately using fixed-effect meta-analysis with inverse variance weights (METAL software). Additionally, heritability was estimated in 2 cohorts. Heritability estimates for fish and EPA+DHA consumption ranged from 0.13-0.24 and 0.12-0.22, respectively. A significant GWA for fish intake was observed for rs9502823 on chromosome 6: each copy of the minor allele (FreqA = 0.015) was associated with 0.029 servings/day (~1 serving/month) lower fish consumption (P = 1.96x10-8). No significant association was observed for EPA+DHA, although rs7206790 in the obesity-associated FTO gene was among top hits (P = 8.18x10-7). Post-hoc calculations demonstrated 95% statistical power to detect a genetic variant associated with effect size of 0.05% for fish and 0.08% for EPA+DHA. These novel findings suggest that non-genetic personal and environmental factors are principal determinants of the remarkable variation in fish consumption, representing modifiable targets for increasing intakes among all individuals. Genes underlying the signal at rs72838923 and mechanisms for the association warrant further investigation.

Egg consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes: a prospective study and dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wallin, Alice; Forouhi, Nita G; Wolk, Alicja; Larsson, Susanna C

2016-06-01

In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between egg consumption and type 2 diabetes risk in the Cohort of Swedish Men and to conduct a meta-analysis to summarise available prospective evidence on this association. We followed 39,610 men (aged 45-79 years) from 1998 up to 2012 for incident type 2 diabetes. Egg consumption was assessed at baseline using a food frequency questionnaire. HRs (95% CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. We searched PubMed (up to 14 December 2015) and reference lists of retrieved articles to identify eligible studies for meta-analysis. During the 15 years of follow up, 4,173 men were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Compared with men who consumed eggs <1 time/week, the multivariable-adjusted HRs were 0.98 (95% CI 0.92, 1.05), 1.11 (95% CI 0.99, 1.24) and 1.11 (95% CI 0.95, 1.29) for egg consumption 1-2, 3-4 and ≥5 times/week, respectively (p trend = 0.06). In a random-effects dose-response meta-analysis, heterogeneity in the overall estimate was partly explained by differences across regions. The overall HRs for type 2 diabetes for each 3 times/week increment in consumption were 1.18 (95% CI 1.13, 1.24) in five US studies (I (2) = 0%) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.90, 1.05) in seven non-US studies. Our findings in Swedish men do not support an association between egg consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes. In a meta-analysis, frequent egg consumption was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes in US studies only. Egg consumption habits and associated overall dietary patterns may differ between populations and could potentially explain the discrepancies between reported results. Given the inconsistent results, this relationship warrants further study.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis of fish and EPA+DHA consumption in 17 US and European cohorts

PubMed Central

Dashti, Hassan S; Wojczynski, Mary K; Chu, Audrey Y; Nettleton, Jennifer A; Männistö, Satu; Kristiansson, Kati; Reedik, Mägi; Lahti, Jari; Houston, Denise K; Cornelis, Marilyn C; van Rooij, Frank J. A; Dimitriou, Maria; Kanoni, Stavroula; Mikkilä, Vera; Steffen, Lyn M; de Oliveira Otto, Marcia C; Qi, Lu; Psaty, Bruce; Djousse, Luc; Rotter, Jerome I; Harald, Kennet; Perola, Markus; Rissanen, Harri; Jula, Antti; Krista, Fischer; Mihailov, Evelin; Feitosa, Mary F; Ngwa, Julius S; Xue, Luting; Jacques, Paul F; Perälä, Mia-Maria; Palotie, Aarno; Liu, Yongmei; Nalls, Nike A; Ferrucci, Luigi; Hernandez, Dena; Manichaikul, Ani; Tsai, Michael Y; Kiefte-de Jong, Jessica C; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Rallidis, Loukianos; Ridker, Paul M; Rose, Lynda M; Buring, Julie E; Lehtimäki, Terho; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Lemaitre, Rozenn; Salomaa, Veikko; Knekt, Paul; Metspalu, Andres; Borecki, Ingrid B; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Eriksson, Johan G; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Bandinelli, Stefania; Siscovick, David; Franco, Oscar H; Deloukas, Panos; Dedoussis, George; Chasman, Daniel I; Raitakari, Olli; Tanaka, Toshiko

2017-01-01

Background Regular fish and omega-3 consumption may have several health benefits and are recommended by major dietary guidelines. Yet, their intakes remain remarkably variable both within and across populations, which could partly owe to genetic influences. Objective To identify common genetic variants that influence fish and dietary eicosapentaenoic acid plus docosahexaenoic acid (EPA+DHA) consumption. Design We conducted genome-wide association (GWA) meta-analysis of fish (n = 86,467) and EPA+DHA (n = 62,265) consumption in 17 cohorts of European descent from the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) Consortium Nutrition Working Group. Results from cohort-specific GWA analyses (additive model) for fish and EPA+DHA consumption were adjusted for age, sex, energy intake, and population stratification, and meta-analyzed separately using fixed-effect meta-analysis with inverse variance weights (METAL software). Additionally, heritability was estimated in 2 cohorts. Results Heritability estimates for fish and EPA+DHA consumption ranged from 0.13–0.24 and 0.12–0.22, respectively. A significant GWA for fish intake was observed for rs9502823 on chromosome 6: each copy of the minor allele (FreqA = 0.015) was associated with 0.029 servings/day (~1 serving/month) lower fish consumption (P = 1.96x10-8). No significant association was observed for EPA+DHA, although rs7206790 in the obesity-associated FTO gene was among top hits (P = 8.18x10-7). Post-hoc calculations demonstrated 95% statistical power to detect a genetic variant associated with effect size of 0.05% for fish and 0.08% for EPA+DHA. Conclusions These novel findings suggest that non-genetic personal and environmental factors are principal determinants of the remarkable variation in fish consumption, representing modifiable targets for increasing intakes among all individuals. Genes underlying the signal at rs72838923 and mechanisms for the association warrant further investigation. PMID:29236708

Palm oil taxes and cardiovascular disease mortality in India: economic-epidemiologic model

PubMed Central

Babiarz, Kim S; Ebrahim, Shah; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Stuckler, David; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D

2013-01-01

Objective To examine the potential effect of a tax on palm oil on hyperlipidemia and on mortality due to cardiovascular disease in India. Design Economic-epidemiologic model. Modeling methods A microsimulation model of mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke among Indian populations was constructed, incorporating nationally representative data on systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and cardiovascular event history, and stratified by age, sex, and urban/rural residence. Household expenditure data were used to estimate the change in consumption of palm oil following changes in oil price and the potential substitution of alternative oils that might occur after imposition of a tax. A 20% excise tax on palm oil purchases was simulated over the period 2014-23. Main outcome measures The model was used to project future mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke, as well as the potential effect of a tax on food insecurity, accounting for the effect of increased food prices. Results A 20% tax on palm oil purchases would be expected to avert approximately 363 000 (95% confidence interval 247 000 to 479 000) deaths from myocardial infarctions and strokes over the period 2014-23 in India (1.3% reduction in cardiovascular deaths) if people do not substitute other oils for reduced palm oil consumption. Given estimates of substitution of palm oil with other oils following a 20% price increase for palm oil, the beneficial effects of increased polyunsaturated fat consumption would be expected to enhance the projected reduction in deaths to as much as 421 000 (256 000 to 586 000). The tax would be expected to benefit men more than women and urban populations more than rural populations, given differential consumption and cardiovascular risk. In a scenario incorporating the effect of taxation on overall food expenditures, the tax may increase food insecurity by <1%, resulting in 16 000 (95% confidence interval 12 000 to 22 000) deaths. Conclusions Curtailing palm oil intake through taxation may modestly reduce hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular mortality, but with potential distributional consequences differentially benefiting male and urban populations, as well as affecting food security. PMID:24149818

Sizing the cannabis market: a demand-side and user-specific approach in seven European countries.

PubMed

van Laar, Margriet; Frijns, Tom; Trautmann, Franz; Lombi, Linda

2013-06-01

Demand-based estimates of total cannabis consumption rarely consider differences among different user types and variation across countries. To describe cannabis consumption patterns and estimate annual consumption for different user types across EU Member States, a web survey in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and United Kingdom (England & Wales) collected data on cannabis use patterns from 3,922 persons who had consumed cannabis at least once in the past year. They were classified into four groups based on their number of use days in the past 12 months: infrequent users or chippers (<11 days), occasional users (11-50 days), regular users (51-250 days) and intensive users (>250 days). User type specific data on typical amounts consumed were matched with data on numbers of users per user type estimated from existing population surveys, taking differences in mode of consumption, age and gender into account. Estimates were supplemented with data from populations of problem users to compensate for under coverage. Results showed remarkably consistent differences among user groups across countries. Both the average number of units consumed per typical use day and the average amount of cannabis consumed per unit increased across user types of increasing frequency of use. In all countries except Portugal, intensive users formed the smallest group of cannabis users but were responsible for the largest part of total annual cannabis consumption. Annual cannabis consumption varied across countries but confidence intervals were wide. Results are compared with previous estimates and discussed in the context of improving estimation methods.

Working Toward the Very Low Energy Consumption Building of the Future |

Science.gov Websites

systems engineering methods that have transformed other industries, including the aircraft and automobile Merced and United Technologies are studying the use of sensors and occupancy estimating methods to , occupancy dynamics models, and energy control methods. The team will test whether this technology can

ALUMINUM BIOAVAILABILITY FROM DRINKING WATER IS VERY LOW AND IS NOT APPRECIABLY INFLUENCED BY STOMACH CONTENTS OR WATER HARDNESS. (R825357)

EPA Science Inventory

The objectives were to estimate aluminum (Al) oral bioavailability under conditions that model its consumption in drinking water, and to test the hypotheses that stomach contents and co-administration of the major components of hard water affect Al absorption. Rats received intra...

Avoidable cost of alcohol abuse in Canada.

PubMed

Rehm, Jürgen; Patra, Jayadeep; Gnam, William H; Sarnocinska-Hart, Anna; Popova, Svetlana

2011-01-01

To estimate avoidable burden and avoidable costs of alcohol abuse in Canada for the year 2002. A policy effectiveness approach was used. The impact of six effective and cost-effective alcohol policy interventions aimed to reduce alcohol consumption was modeled. In addition, the effect of privatized alcohol sales that would increase alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable costs was also modeled. The effects of these interventions were compared with the baseline (aggregate) costs obtained from the second Canadian Study of Social Costs Attributable to Substance Abuse. It was estimated that by implementing six cost-effective policies from about 900 million to two billion Canadian dollars per year could be saved in Canada. The greatest savings due to the implementation of these interventions would be achieved in the lowering of productivity losses, followed by health care, and criminality. Substantial increases in burden and cost would occur if Canadian provinces were to privatize alcohol sales. The implementation of proven effective population-based interventions would reduce alcohol-attributable burden and its costs in Canada to a considerable degree. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Estimating aboveground forest biomass carbon and fire consumption in the U.S. Utah High Plateaus using data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program, Landsat, and LANDFIRE

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Xuexia; Liu, Shuguang; Zhu, Zhiliang; Vogelmann, James E.; Li, Zhengpeng; Ohlen, Donald O.

2011-01-01

The concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and greatly affecting global climate and socio-economic systems. Actively growing forests are generally considered to be a major carbon sink, but forest wildfires lead to large releases of biomass carbon into the atmosphere. Aboveground forest biomass carbon (AFBC), an important ecological indicator, and fire-induced carbon emissions at regional scales are highly relevant to forest sustainable management and climate change. It is challenging to accurately estimate the spatial distribution of AFBC across large areas because of the spatial heterogeneity of forest cover types and canopy structure. In this study, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, Landsat, and Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project (LANDFIRE) data were integrated in a regression tree model for estimating AFBC at a 30-m resolution in the Utah High Plateaus. AFBC were calculated from 225 FIA field plots and used as the dependent variable in the model. Of these plots, 10% were held out for model evaluation with stratified random sampling, and the other 90% were used as training data to develop the regression tree model. Independent variable layers included Landsat imagery and the derived spectral indicators, digital elevation model (DEM) data and derivatives, biophysical gradient data, existing vegetation cover type and vegetation structure. The cross-validation correlation coefficient (r value) was 0.81 for the training model. Independent validation using withheld plot data was similar with r value of 0.82. This validated regression tree model was applied to map AFBC in the Utah High Plateaus and then combined with burn severity information to estimate loss of AFBC in the Longston fire of Zion National Park in 2001. The final dataset represented 24 forest cover types for a 4 million ha forested area. We estimated a total of 353 Tg AFBC with an average of 87 MgC/ha in the Utah High Plateaus. We also estimated that 8054 Mg AFBC were released from 2.24 km2 burned forest area in the Longston fire. These results demonstrate that an AFBC spatial map and estimated biomass carbon consumption can readily be generated using existing database. The methodology provides a consistent, practical, and inexpensive way for estimating AFBC at 30-m resolution over large areas throughout the United States.

The impact of clean indoor-air laws and cigarette smuggling on demand for cigarettes: an empirical model.

PubMed

Yurekli, A A; Zhang, P

2000-03-01

This study examines the impact of clean indoor-air laws and smuggling activities on states' per capita cigarette consumption and revenues by using a static demand model. The analysis was based on data for 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC) of the United Sates over the period 1970-1995. The estimated price elasticities of demand for cigarettes ranged from -0.48 to -0.62, indicating that a 10% increase in price would reduce consumption per capita by 4.8% to 6.2%. Anti-smoking laws had a significant negative impact on per capita consumption. In 1995, consumption was reduced by 4.7 packs per capita among states with anti-smoking laws, or 1.1 billion fewer packs of cigarettes consumed. Both short-distance smuggling between neighbouring states and long-distance smuggling from Kentucky, North Carolina and Virginia existed and were significant. Smuggling activities from military bases and Indian reservations, however, were not significant. On average, 6% of states' tax revenues were lost due to smuggling activities in 1995. Results also showed that short-distance smuggling was less important than long-distance smuggling as a source of the revenue loss. Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimates of U.S. Biomass Energy Consumption 1992

EIA Publications

1994-01-01

This report is the seventh in a series of publications developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to quantify the biomass derived primary energy used by the U.S. economy. It presents estimates of 1991 and 1992 consumption.

Estimates of dietary exposure to bisphenol A (BPA) from light metal packaging using food consumption and packaging usage data: a refined deterministic approach and a fully probabilistic (FACET) approach.

PubMed

Oldring, P K T; Castle, L; O'Mahony, C; Dixon, J

2014-01-01

The FACET tool is a probabilistic model to estimate exposure to chemicals in foodstuffs, originating from flavours, additives and food contact materials. This paper demonstrates the use of the FACET tool to estimate exposure to BPA (bisphenol A) from light metal packaging. For exposure to migrants from food packaging, FACET uses industry-supplied data on the occurrence of substances in the packaging, their concentrations and construction of the packaging, which were combined with data from a market research organisation and food consumption data supplied by national database managers. To illustrate the principles, UK packaging data were used together with consumption data from the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) dietary survey for 19-64 year olds for a refined deterministic verification. The UK data were chosen mainly because the consumption surveys are detailed, data for UK packaging at a detailed level were available and, arguably, the UK population is composed of high consumers of packaged foodstuffs. Exposures were run for each food category that could give rise to BPA from light metal packaging. Consumer loyalty to a particular type of packaging, commonly referred to as packaging loyalty, was set. The BPA extraction levels used for the 15 types of coating chemistries that could release BPA were in the range of 0.00005-0.012 mg dm(-2). The estimates of exposure to BPA using FACET for the total diet were 0.0098 (mean) and 0.0466 (97.5th percentile) mg/person/day, corresponding to 0.00013 (mean) and 0.00059 (97.5th percentile) mg kg(-1) body weight day(-1) for consumers of foods packed in light metal packaging. This is well below the current EFSA (and other recognised bodies) TDI of 0.05 mg kg(-1) body weight day(-1). These probabilistic estimates were compared with estimates using a refined deterministic approach drawing on the same input data. The results from FACET for the mean, 95th and 97.5th percentile exposures to BPA lay between the lowest and the highest estimates from the refined deterministic calculations. Since this should be the case, for a fully probabilistic compared with a deterministic approach, it is concluded that the FACET tool has been verified in this example. A recent EFSA draft opinion on exposure to BPA from different sources showed that canned foods were a major contributor and compared results from various models, including those from FACET. The results from FACET were overall conservative.

An Australian stocks and flows model for asbestos.

PubMed

Donovan, Sally; Pickin, Joe

2016-10-01

All available data on asbestos consumption in Australia were collated in order to determine the most common asbestos-containing materials remaining in the built environment. The proportion of asbestos contained within each material and the types of products these materials are most commonly found in was also determined. The lifetime of these asbestos containing products was estimated in order to develop a model that projects stocks and flows of asbestos products in Australia through to the year 2100. The model is based on a Weibull distribution and was built in an excel spreadsheet to make it user-friendly and accessible. The nature of the products under consideration means both their asbestos content and lifetime parameters are highly variable, and so for each of these a high and low estimate is presented along with the estimate used in the model. The user is able to vary the parameters in the model as better data become available. © The Author(s) 2016.

Methodologies for assessing the use-phase power consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of telecommunications network services.

PubMed

Chan, Chien A; Gygax, André F; Wong, Elaine; Leckie, Christopher A; Nirmalathas, Ampalavanapillai; Kilper, Daniel C

2013-01-02

Internet traffic has grown rapidly in recent years and is expected to continue to expand significantly over the next decade. Consequently, the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of telecommunications service-supporting infrastructures have become an important issue. In this study, we develop a set of models for assessing the use-phase power consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of telecom network services to help telecom providers gain a better understanding of the GHG emissions associated with the energy required for their networks and services. Due to the fact that measuring the power consumption and traffic in a telecom network is a challenging task, these models utilize different granularities of available network information. As the granularity of the network measurement information decreases, the corresponding models have the potential to produce larger estimation errors. Therefore, we examine the accuracy of these models under various network scenarios using two approaches: (i) a sensitivity analysis through simulations and (ii) a case study of a deployed network. Both approaches show that the accuracy of the models depends on the network size, the total amount of network service traffic (i.e., for the service under assessment), and the number of network nodes used to process the service.

Tea Consumption and Health-Related Quality of Life in Older Adults.

PubMed

Pan, C-W; Ma, Q; Sun, H-P; Xu, Y; Luo, N; Wang, P

2017-01-01

Although tea consumption has been reported to have various health benefits in humans, its association with health-related quality of life (HRQOL) has not been investigated directly. We aimed to examine the relationship between tea consumption and HRQOL among older Chinese adults. We analyzed community-based cross-sectional data of 5,557 older Chinese individuals aged 60 years or older who participated in the Weitang Geriatric Diseases study. Information on tea consumption and HRQOL assessed by the European Quality of Life-5 dimensions (EQ-5D) were collected by questionnaires. We estimated the relationship of tea consumption and the EQ-5D index score using linear regression models and the association between tea consumption and self-reported EQ-5D health problems using logistic regression models. The EQ-5D index score was higher for habitual tea drinkers than their counterparts. In multivariate linear analyses controlling for socio-demographic conditions, health conditions, and lifestyle habits, the differences in ED-5D index score between individuals with and without tea drinking habits was 0.012 (95% confidence interval, 0.006-0.017). In multivariate logistic analyses, habitual tea drinking was inversely associated with reporting of problems in EQ-5D dimensions mobility (odds ration [OR], 0.44; 95% CI: 0.23-0.84); pain/discomfort (OR, 0.74; 95% CI: 0.61-0.90); and anxiety/depression (OR, 0.60; 95% CI: 0.38-0.97). These associations were more evident for black or oolong tea than green tea. Habitual tea consumption was associated with better HRQOL in older adults.

Oxygen consumption of a pneumatically controlled ventilator in a field anesthesia machine.

PubMed

Szpisjak, Dale F; Javernick, Elizabeth N; Kyle, Richard R; Austin, Paul N

2008-12-01

Field anesthesia machines (FAM) have been developed for remote locations where reliable supplies of compressed medical gases or electricity may be absent. In place of electricity, pneumatically controlled ventilators use compressed gas to power timing circuitry and actuate valves. We sought to determine the total O(2) consumption and ventilator gas consumption (drive gas [DG] plus pneumatic control [PC] gas) of a FAM's pneumatically controlled ventilator in mechanical models of high (HC) and low (LC) total thoracic compliance. The amount of total O(2) consumed by the Magellan-2200 (Oceanic Medical Products, Atchison, KS) FAM with pneumatically controlled ventilator was calculated using the ideal gas law and the measured mass of O(2) consumed from E cylinders. DG to the bellows canister assembly was measured with the Wright Respirometer Mk 8 (Ferraris Respiratory Europe, Hertford, UK). PC gas consumption was calculated by subtracting DG and fresh gas flow (FGF) from the total O(2) consumed from the E cylinder. The delivered tidal volume (V(T)) was measured with a pneumotach (Hans Rudolph, KS City, MO). Three different V(T) were tested (500, 750, and 1000 mL) with two lung models (HC and LC) using the Vent Aid Training Test Lung (MI Instruments, Grand Rapids, MI). Respiratory variables included an I:E of 1:2, FGF of 1 L/min, and respiratory rate of 10 breaths/min. Total O(2) consumption was directly proportional to V(T) and inversely proportional to compliance. The smallest total O(2) consumption rate (including FGF) was 9.3 +/- 0.4 L/min in the HC-500 model and the largest was 15.9 +/- 0.5 L/min in the LC-1000 model (P < 0.001). The mean PC circuitry consumption was 3.9 +/- 0.24 L/min or 390 mL +/- 24 mL/breath. To prepare for loss of central DG supply, patient safety will be improved by estimating cylinder duration for low total thoracic compliance. Using data from the smaller compliance and greatest V(T) model (LC-1000), a full O(2) E cylinder would be depleted in <42 min, whereas a full H cylinder would last approximately 433 min.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aden, Nathaniel; Qin, Yining; Fridley, David

Buildings are at the locus of three trends driving China's increased energy use and emissions: urbanization, growing personal consumption, and surging heavy industrial production. Migration to cities and urban growth create demand for new building construction. Higher levels of per-capita income and consumption drive building operational energy use with demand for higher intensity lighting, thermal comfort, and plug-load power. Demand for new buildings, infrastructure, and electricity requires heavy industrial production. In order to quantify the implications of China's ongoing urbanization, rising personal consumption, and booming heavy industrial sector, this study presents a lifecycle assessment (LCA) of the energy use andmore » carbon emissions related to residential and commercial buildings. The purpose of the LCA model is to quantify the impact of a given building and identify policy linkages to mitigate energy demand and emissions growth related to China's new building construction. As efficiency has become a higher priority with growing energy demand, policy and academic attention to buildings has focused primarily on operational energy use. Existing studies estimate that building operational energy consumption accounts for approximately 25% of total primary energy use in China. However, buildings also require energy for mining, extracting, processing, manufacturing, and transporting materials, as well as energy for construction, maintenance, and decommissioning. Building and supporting infrastructure construction is a major driver of industry consumption--in 2008 industry accounted for 72% of total Chinese energy use. The magnitude of new building construction is large in China--in 2007, for example, total built floor area reached 58 billion square meters. During the construction boom in 2007 and 2008, more than two billion m{sup 2} of building space were added annually; China's recent construction is estimated to account for half of global construction. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) developed an integrated LCA model to capture the energy and emissions implications of all aspects of new buildings from material mining through construction, operations, and decommissioning. Over the following four sections, this report describes related existing research, the LBNL building LCA model structure and results, policy linkages of this lifecycle assessment, and conclusions and recommendations for follow-on work. The LBNL model is a first-order approach to gathering local data and applying lifecycle assessment to buildings in the Beijing area--it represents one effort among a range of established, predominantly American and European, LCA models. This report identifies the benefits, limitations, and policy applications of lifecycle assessment modeling for quantifying the energy and emissions impacts of specific residential and commercial buildings.« less

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

PubMed

Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

2016-05-07

One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia. Adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways would reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71%, depending on their stringency. The health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent many climate-related deaths. Strengthening of public health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy. Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the application of the generalized monod kinetics model to describe the human corneal oxygen-consumption rate during soft contact lens wear.

PubMed

Compañ, V; Aguilella-Arzo, M; Del Castillo, L F; Hernández, S I; Gonzalez-Meijome, J M

2017-11-01

This work is an analysis of the application of the generalized Monod kinetics model describing human corneal oxygen consumption during soft contact lens wear to models previously used by Chhabra et al. (J Biomed Mater Res B Appl Biomater, 2009a;90:202-209, Optom Vis Sci 2009b;86:454-466) and Larrea and Büchler (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci 2009;50:1076-1080). We use oxygen tension from in vivo estimations provided by Bonanno [Bonanno et al., Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci 2002;43:371-376, and Bonanno et al 2009]. We consider four hydrogel and six silicone hydrogel lenses. The cornea is considered a single homogeneous layer, with constant oxygen permeability regardless of the type of lens worn. Our calculations yield different values for the maximum oxygen consumption rate Q c,max , whith differents oxygen tensions (high and low p c ) at the cornea-tears interface. Surprisingly, for both models, we observe an increase in oxygen consumption near an oxygen tension of 105 mmHg until a maximum is reached, then decreasing for higher levels of oxygen pressure. That is, when lowering the pressure of oxygen, the parameter Q c,max initially increases depending on the intensity of the change in pressure. Which, it could be related with the variation of the pH. Furthermore, it is also noted that to greater reductions in pressure, this parameter decreases, possibly due to changes in the concentration of glucose related to the anaerobic respiration. The averaged in vivo human corneal oxygen consumption rate of 1.47 × 10 -4 cm 3 of O 2 /cm 3 tissue s, with Monod kinetics model, considering all the lenses studied, is smaller than the average oxygen consumption rate value obtained using the Larrea and Büchler model. The impact that these calculations have on the oxygen partial pressure available at different depths in the corneal tissue is presented and discussed, taking into consideration previous models used in this study. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater, 105B: 2269-2281, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sociodemographic differences in fast food price sensitivity

PubMed Central

Meyer, Katie A.; Guilkey, David K.; Ng, Shu Wen; Duffey, Kiyah J.; Popkin, Barry M.; Kiefe, Catarina I.; Steffen, Lyn M.; Shikany, James M.; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2014-01-01

Importance Fiscal food policies (e.g., taxation) are increasingly proposed to improve population-level health, but their impact on health disparities is unknown. Objective We estimated subgroup-specific effects of fast food price changes on fast food consumption and cardio-metabolic outcomes, hypothesizing inverse associations between fast food price with fast food consumption, BMI, and insulin resistance and stronger associations among blacks (vs. whites) and participants with relatively lower education or income. Design 20-year follow-up (5 exams) in a biracial U.S. prospective cohort: Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) (1985/86–2005/06, baseline n=5,115). Participants Aged 18–30 at baseline; designed for equal recruitment by race (black/white), educational attainment, age, and gender. Exposures Community-level price data from the Council for Community and Economic Research (C2ER) temporally- and geographically-linked to study participants’ home address at each exam. Main outcome and measures Participant-reported number of fast food eating occasions per week; BMI (kg/m2) from clinical assessment of weight and height; homeostatic model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) from fasting glucose and insulin. Covariates included individual- and community-level social and demographic factors. Results In repeated measures regression, multivariable-adjusted associations between fast food price and consumption were non-linear (quadratic, p<0.001), with significant inverse estimated effects on consumption at higher prices; estimates varied according to race (interaction term p=0.04), income (p=0.07), and education (p=0.03). For example, at the 10th percentile of price ($1.25/serving), blacks and whites had mean fast food consumption (times/week) of 2.2 (95% CI: 2.1–2.3) and 1.6 (1.5–1.7), respectively, while at the 90th percentile of price ($1.53/serving), respective mean consumption estimates were 1.9 (1.8–2.0) and 1.5 (1.4–1.6). We observed differential price effects on HOMA-IR (inverse for lower educational status and at middle income) and BMI (inverse for blacks, lower education, and middle income; positive for whites, high education, and high income). Conclusions We found greater fast food price sensitivity on fast food consumption and insulin resistance among sociodemographic groups that have a disproportionate burden of chronic disease. Our findings have implications for fiscal policy approaches related to diet, particularly with respect to possible effects of fast food taxes among populations with diet-related health disparities. PMID:24424384

Early-release Estimates From the 2010 MECS Show That Energy Consumption In the Manufacturing Sector Decreased Between 2006 and 2010

EIA Publications

2012-01-01

Energy consumption in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell from 21,098 trillion Btu (tBtu) in 2006 to 19,062 tBtu in 2010, a decline of almost 10% , based on preliminary estimates released from the 2010 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS). This decline continues the downward trend in manufacturing energy use since the 1998 MECS report.

Assessment of the influence of energy under-reporting on intake estimates of four food additives.

PubMed

Gilsenan, M B; Gibney, M J

2004-03-01

Under-reporting has been identified as an important source of uncertainty in food chemical exposure assessments. The objective of the present study was to assess the influence of under-reporting on food additive intake estimates. Dietary survey data were derived from the North-South Ireland Food Consumption Survey (2001). Data from the Republic of Ireland (n = 958) were used. Energy under-reporters were identified using a ratio of energy intakes to estimated basal metabolic rate. First, food categories (n = 26) included in an assessment of exposure of four food additives were created and patterns of food intakes (i.e. likelihood of consumption, frequency of consumption and reported portion size) between acceptable and under-reporters compared. Second, for each food additive, deterministic intake estimates for the total sample (i.e. acceptable and under-reporters), under-reporters and acceptable reporters were calculated and compared. Differential reporting of the majority of food categories between acceptable and under-reporters was recorded. Under-reporters were less likely to record the consumption of a given food and more likely to under-report the frequency of consumption and portion size compared with acceptable reporters. Food additive intake estimates amongst acceptable reporters were higher than corresponding intake estimates amongst the total sample of reporters and amongst under-reporters. With the exception of one food additive (erythrosine), ratios of upper percentile additive intakes amongst acceptable reporters to corresponding intake estimates amongst the total sample of reporters did not exceed 1.06 when results were expressed as total population or consumer-only intakes. Findings illustrated that energy under-reporting does not materially influence estimates of food additive exposure based on the four food additives studied. However, a number of situations were identified where the under-reporting might exert a more significant impact on resulting exposure estimates.