A Wake-Up Call: Enterprise Risk Management at Colleges and Universities Today

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Association of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges, 2014

2014-01-01

After five years of change and upheaval, why is it that governing boards of colleges and universities continue to consider risk on a largely ad hoc basis? The findings from this recent survey, conducted by the Association of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges (AGB) and United Educators (UE), indicate a modest increase in the use of risk…

Dengue in Java, Indonesia: Relevance of Mosquito Indices as Risk Predictors

PubMed Central

Wijayanti, Siwi P. M.; Sunaryo, Sunaryo; Suprihatin, Suprihatin; McFarlane, Melanie; Rainey, Stephanie M.; Dietrich, Isabelle; Schnettler, Esther; Biek, Roman; Kohl, Alain

2016-01-01

Background No vaccine is currently available for dengue virus (DENV), therefore control programmes usually focus on managing mosquito vector populations. Entomological surveys provide the most common means of characterising vector populations and predicting the risk of local dengue virus transmission. Despite Indonesia being a country strongly affected by DENV, only limited information is available on the local factors affecting DENV transmission and the suitability of available survey methods for assessing risk. Methodology/principal findings We conducted entomological surveys in the Banyumas Regency (Central Java) where dengue cases occur on an annual basis. Four villages were sampled during the dry and rainy seasons: two villages where dengue was endemic, one where dengue cases occurred sporadically and one which was dengue-free. In addition to data for conventional larvae indices, we collected data on pupae indices, and collected adult mosquitoes for species identification in order to determine mosquito species composition and population density. Traditionally used larval indices (House indices, Container indices and Breteau indices) were found to be inadequate as indicators for DENV transmission risk. In contrast, species composition of adult mosquitoes revealed that competent vector species were dominant in dengue endemic and sporadic villages. Conclusions/significance Our data suggested that the utility of traditional larvae indices, which continue to be used in many dengue endemic countries, should be re-evaluated locally. The results highlight the need for validation of risk indicators and control strategies across DENV affected areas here and perhaps elsewhere in SE Asia. PMID:26967524

Dengue in Java, Indonesia: Relevance of Mosquito Indices as Risk Predictors.

PubMed

Wijayanti, Siwi P M; Sunaryo, Sunaryo; Suprihatin, Suprihatin; McFarlane, Melanie; Rainey, Stephanie M; Dietrich, Isabelle; Schnettler, Esther; Biek, Roman; Kohl, Alain

2016-03-01

No vaccine is currently available for dengue virus (DENV), therefore control programmes usually focus on managing mosquito vector populations. Entomological surveys provide the most common means of characterising vector populations and predicting the risk of local dengue virus transmission. Despite Indonesia being a country strongly affected by DENV, only limited information is available on the local factors affecting DENV transmission and the suitability of available survey methods for assessing risk. We conducted entomological surveys in the Banyumas Regency (Central Java) where dengue cases occur on an annual basis. Four villages were sampled during the dry and rainy seasons: two villages where dengue was endemic, one where dengue cases occurred sporadically and one which was dengue-free. In addition to data for conventional larvae indices, we collected data on pupae indices, and collected adult mosquitoes for species identification in order to determine mosquito species composition and population density. Traditionally used larval indices (House indices, Container indices and Breteau indices) were found to be inadequate as indicators for DENV transmission risk. In contrast, species composition of adult mosquitoes revealed that competent vector species were dominant in dengue endemic and sporadic villages. Our data suggested that the utility of traditional larvae indices, which continue to be used in many dengue endemic countries, should be re-evaluated locally. The results highlight the need for validation of risk indicators and control strategies across DENV affected areas here and perhaps elsewhere in SE Asia.

Incidence and risk for acute hepatitis C infection during imprisonment in Australia.

PubMed

Dolan, Kate; Teutsch, Suzy; Scheuer, Nicolas; Levy, Michael; Rawlinson, William; Kaldor, John; Lloyd, Andrew; Haber, Paul

2010-02-01

To determine hepatitis C incidence and the demographic and behavioural predictors in seronegative drug injecting prisoners. Prisoners in New South Wales, Australia who: were aged 18 years and over; reported IDU; had been continuously imprisoned; had a documented negative HCV antibody test result in prison in the last 12 months; provided written informed consent. Subjects were interviewed about their demographic characteristics and detailed risk factors for transmission prior to, and since, imprisonment. A blood sample was collected to screen for HCV antibodies by ELISA and RNA by PCR. Of 253 inmates recruited, 120 were continuously imprisoned and included in this analysis. Sixteen acquired HCV infection indicating an incidence of 34.2 per 100 person years (CI: 19.6-55.6). Risk factors for transmission included prior imprisonment, methadone treatment and greater than 10 years of education. Although the frequency of injecting was reduced in prison, 33.6% continued to inject drugs, most commonly methamphetamine, and 90% of these reported sharing injecting equipment. Prison inmates were at high risk of HCV infection, despite some reduction in high-risk behaviours and access to prevention services. To prevent HCV transmission in prisons, better prevention strategies are required.

Association between the Family Nutrition and Physical Activity screening tool and cardiovascular disease risk factors in 10-year old children

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yee, Kimbo Edward

Purpose. To examine the association of the Family Nutrition and Physical Activity (FNPA) screening tool, a behaviorally based screening tool designed to assess the obesogenic family environment and behaviors, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in 10-year old children. Methods. One hundred nineteen children were assessed for body mass index (BMI), percent body fat (%BF), waist circumference (WC), total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and resting blood pressure. A continuous CVD risk score was created using total cholesterol to HDL-cholesterol ratio (TC:HDL), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and WC. The FNPA survey was completed by parents. The associations between the FNPA score and individual CVD risk factors and the continuous CVD risk score were examined using correlation analyses. Results. Approximately 35% of the sample were overweight (19%) or obese (16%). The mean FNPA score was 24.6 +/- 2.5 (range 18 to 29). Significant correlations were found between the FNPA score and WC (r = -.35, p<.01), BMI percentile (r = -.38, p<.01), %BF (r = -.43, p<.01), and the continuous CVD risk score (r = -.22, p = .02). No significant association was found between the FNPA score and TC:HDL (r=0.10, p=0.88) or MAP (r=-0.12, p=0.20). Conclusion. Children from a high-risk, obesogenic family environment as indicated with a lower FNPA score have a higher CVD risk factor profile than children from a low-risk family environment.

Short-Term Interventions for Long-Term Needs: The Challenge of Bridging Youth and Community Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephenson, Garry; Morford, Shawn; Berry, Holly

2002-01-01

The Mill City/Gates Youth Development Project operated as a youth-at-risk program in a timber-dependent community during the timber crisis of the early 1990s. Evaluations indicate the youth activities were effective. Community support structures created by the project continue to operate 5 years after the end of funding, indicating a successful…

Denosumab for the Treatment of Osteoporosis

PubMed Central

Zaheer, Sarah; LeBoff, Meryl; Lewiecki, E. Michael

2015-01-01

Introduction Low trauma fractures due to osteoporosis are a major health concern worldwide. Despite the availability of many therapeutic compounds to reduce fracture risk, osteoporosis remains undertreated and the burden of osteoporotic fractures remains high. Denosumab is a novel agent that acts to reduce bone turnover, improve bone mineral density, and reduce fracture risk, offering a favorable efficacy and safety profile. Areas covered This review covers the pharmacology and major clinical trials with extension/post-marketing follow-up, including trials for all FDA-approved indications of denosumab to date. Expert Opinion Denosumab is an efficacious and safe osteoporosis treatment option, with current data up to 8 years of continued use showing continued improvement in bone density with sustained fracture risk reduction. Safety profiles overall are similar to placebo, with no new safety concerns in extension trials, though a theoretical increased risk of infection exists with RANKL inhibition. Future considerations include safety of prolonged treatment beyond 8 years, and efficacy/fracture risk after discontinuation or with non-adherence, given the characteristic pharmacodynamic profile of denosumab. PMID:25614274

Tuning the Brake While Raising the Stake: Network Dynamics during Sequential Decision-Making.

PubMed

Meder, David; Haagensen, Brian Numelin; Hulme, Oliver; Morville, Tobias; Gelskov, Sofie; Herz, Damian Marc; Diomsina, Beata; Christensen, Mark Schram; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard; Siebner, Hartwig Roman

2016-05-11

When gathering valued goods, risk and reward are often coupled and escalate over time, for instance, during foraging, trading, or gambling. This escalating frame requires agents to continuously balance expectations of reward against those of risk. To address how the human brain dynamically computes these tradeoffs, we performed whole-brain fMRI while healthy young individuals engaged in a sequential gambling task. Participants were repeatedly confronted with the option to continue with throwing a die to accumulate monetary reward under escalating risk, or the alternative option to stop to bank the current balance. Within each gambling round, the accumulation of gains gradually increased reaction times for "continue" choices, indicating growing uncertainty in the decision to continue. Neural activity evoked by "continue" choices was associated with growing activity and connectivity of a cortico-subcortical "braking" network that positively scaled with the accumulated gains, including pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA), inferior frontal gyrus, caudate, and subthalamic nucleus (STN). The influence of the STN on continue-evoked activity in the pre-SMA was predicted by interindividual differences in risk-aversion attitudes expressed during the gambling task. Furthermore, activity in dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) reflected individual choice tendencies by showing increased activation when subjects made nondefault "continue" choices despite an increasing tendency to stop, but ACC activity did not change in proportion with subjective choice uncertainty. Together, the results implicate a key role of dorsal ACC, pre-SMA, inferior frontal gyrus, and STN in computing the trade-off between escalating reward and risk in sequential decision-making. Using a paradigm where subjects experienced increasing potential rewards coupled with increasing risk, this study addressed two unresolved questions in the field of decision-making: First, we investigated an "inhibitory" network of regions that has so far been investigated with externally cued action inhibition. In this study, we show that the dynamics in this network under increasingly risky decisions are predictive of subjects' risk attitudes. Second, we contribute to a currently ongoing debate about the anterior cingulate cortex's role in sequential foraging decisions by showing that its activity is related to making nondefault choices rather than to choice uncertainty. Copyright © 2016 Meder, Haagensen, et al.

Impact of an Educational Text Message Intervention on Adolescents' Knowledge and High-Risk Behaviors.

PubMed

Hickman, Nichole Erin; Schaar, Gina

2018-03-01

Health care providers need to develop improved methods of educating adolescents. This study was developed to evaluate adolescents' responses to and satisfaction with an educational text message intervention to promote healthy behaviors, reduce the incidence of unhealthy behaviors, and prevent high-risk behaviors. Adolescent participants received weekly text messages regarding high-risk sexual behaviors, healthy dietary habits, exercise, drug, or alcohol use, and social issues. Results indicate adolescents learned something new, made a behavioral change, and overall liked the delivery of educational information via text message. This indicates long-term continuation of a text message intervention is a viable means to deliver adolescent health information, thereby improving an adolescent's current and future health status.

Perioperative aspirin management after POISE-2: some answers, but questions remain.

PubMed

Gerstein, Neal Stuart; Carey, Michael Christopher; Cigarroa, Joaquin E; Schulman, Peter M

2015-03-01

Aspirin constitutes important uninterrupted lifelong therapy for many patients with cardiovascular (CV) disease or significant (CV) risk factors. However, whether aspirin should be continued or withheld in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery is a common clinical conundrum that balances the potential of aspirin for decreasing thrombotic risk with its possibility for increasing perioperative blood loss. In this focused review, we describe the role of aspirin in treating and preventing cardiovascular disease, summarize the most important literature on the perioperative use of aspirin (including the recently published PeriOperative ISchemic Evaluation [POISE]-2 trial), and offer current recommendations for managing aspirin during the perioperative period. POISE-2 suggests that aspirin administration during the perioperative period does not change the risk of a cardiovascular event and may result in increased bleeding. However, these findings are tempered by a number of methodological issues related to the study. On the basis of currently available literature, including POISE-2, aspirin should not be administered to patients undergoing surgery unless there is a definitive guideline-based primary or secondary prevention indication. Aside from closed-space procedures, intramedullary spine surgery, or possibly prostate surgery, moderate-risk patients taking lifelong aspirin for a guideline-based primary or secondary indication may warrant continuation of their aspirin throughout the perioperative period.

Early Warning System for West Nile Virus Risk Areas, California, USA

PubMed Central

Ahearn, Sean C.; McConchie, Alan; Glaser, Carol; Jean, Cynthia; Barker, Chris; Park, Bborie; Padgett, Kerry; Parker, Erin; Aquino, Ervic; Kramer, Vicki

2011-01-01

The Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time (DYCAST) system is a biologically based spatiotemporal model that uses public reports of dead birds to identify areas at high risk for West Nile virus (WNV) transmission to humans. In 2005, during a statewide epidemic of WNV (880 cases), the California Department of Public Health prospectively implemented DYCAST over 32,517 km2 in California. Daily risk maps were made available online and used by local agencies to target public education campaigns, surveillance, and mosquito control. DYCAST had 80.8% sensitivity and 90.6% specificity for predicting human cases, and κ analysis indicated moderate strength of chance-adjusted agreement for >4 weeks. High-risk grid cells (populations) were identified an average of 37.2 days before onset of human illness; relative risk for disease was >39× higher than for low-risk cells. Although prediction rates declined in subsequent years, results indicate DYCAST was a timely and effective early warning system during the severe 2005 epidemic. PMID:21801622

Sexual risk behavior and STI health literacy among ethnic minority adolescent women.

PubMed

Dimmitt Champion, Jane; Harlin, Badia; Collins, Jennifer L

2013-11-01

Although information is available for prevention of sexually transmitted infection (STI/HIV), adolescents continue to engage in high risk sexual behavior particularly ethnic minority adolescent women with histories of STI or abuse. A description therefore of STI/HIV knowledge and sexual risk behavior among these women is indicated for modification of prevention efforts for sexual health promotion. African-American (n=94) and Mexican-American (n=465) adolescent women 14-18 years of age were included in the study. Assessments of sexual risk behavior and STI/HIV knowledge among these adolescent women described Mexican-American women as at higher risk of STI, pregnancy, substance use and abuse with lower levels of STI/HIV knowledge, previous HIV testing and perceptions of risk than African-American women. A focus on Mexican-American adolescent women with histories of STI and abuse is indicated for translation of community-based health promotion interventions for amelioration of potential adverse sexual health outcomes among ethnic minority adolescent women. © 2013.

Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2011-12-01

Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have explicit foci on (1) integrating physical and social vulnerability indicators across timescales, (2) analytical capacity to generate local scenarios of risk using both analogs and projections, (3) the communication of risk-based information, and (4) the support and governance of a collaborative framework for early warning structures across spatial scales.

Development of the Likelihood of Low Glucose (LLG) algorithm for evaluating risk of hypoglycemia: a new approach for using continuous glucose data to guide therapeutic decision making.

PubMed

Dunn, Timothy C; Hayter, Gary A; Doniger, Ken J; Wolpert, Howard A

2014-07-01

The objective was to develop an analysis methodology for generating diabetes therapy decision guidance using continuous glucose (CG) data. The novel Likelihood of Low Glucose (LLG) methodology, which exploits the relationship between glucose median, glucose variability, and hypoglycemia risk, is mathematically based and can be implemented in computer software. Using JDRF Continuous Glucose Monitoring Clinical Trial data, CG values for all participants were divided into 4-week periods starting at the first available sensor reading. The safety and sensitivity performance regarding hypoglycemia guidance "stoplights" were compared between the LLG method and one based on 10th percentile (P10) values. Examining 13 932 hypoglycemia guidance outputs, the safety performance of the LLG method ranged from 0.5% to 5.4% incorrect "green" indicators, compared with 0.9% to 6.0% for P10 value of 110 mg/dL. Guidance with lower P10 values yielded higher rates of incorrect indicators, such as 11.7% to 38% at 80 mg/dL. When evaluated only for periods of higher glucose (median above 155 mg/dL), the safety performance of the LLG method was superior to the P10 method. Sensitivity performance of correct "red" indicators of the LLG method had an in sample rate of 88.3% and an out of sample rate of 59.6%, comparable with the P10 method up to about 80 mg/dL. To aid in therapeutic decision making, we developed an algorithm-supported report that graphically highlights low glucose risk and increased variability. When tested with clinical data, the proposed method demonstrated equivalent or superior safety and sensitivity performance. © 2014 Diabetes Technology Society.

Dental caries experience and association to risk indicators of remote rural populations.

PubMed

Cook, Sean L; Martinez-Mier, E Angeles; Dean, Jeffrey A; Weddell, James A; Sanders, Brian J; Eggertsson, Hafsteinn; Ofner, Susan; Yoder, Karen

2008-07-01

Dental caries continues to be the most common infectious disease of childhood; however, it is no longer pandemic, but endemic in specific sectors of populations. Therefore, it is important to identify and target patients at risk of developing caries in order to develop specific preventive measures. This study aims to test dental caries risk indicators for significant associations with caries severity. Five separate, small, isolated rural villages in Mexico with varying degrees of caries prevalence were selected for this observational study. A total of 248 children were examined. Risk indicators were assessed via questionnaire and water and salt fluoride analysis. Caries severity was measured by the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS-I). Prevalence of caries ranged from 95% to 100% for the five villages. Mean total DMFS (decayed, missing, or filled surfaces-permanent teeth) and dmfs (decayed, missing, or filled surfaces-primary teeth) scores ranged from 2.5 to 5.0 and from 11.3 to 16.9, respectively. Multivariable models showed age and drinking soda between meals to be significantly associated with DMFS, and drinking juice and being female were significantly associated with dmfs. DMFS and dmfs were high in each village, significantly different between villages, and associated with specific risk indicators.

Emerging Technologies for Real-Time Continuous Monitoring of Wellbore Integrity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freifeld, B. M.

2017-12-01

Assessment of a well's integrity has traditionally been carried out through periodic wireline logging, often performed only when an operational problem was noted at the surface. There are several emerging technologies that can be installed permanently as part of the well completion and offer the ability to monitor operations while providing continuous indicators to evaluate the structural health of a well. Permanent behind casing instrumentation, such as pressure and temperature gauges can monitor for behind casing leakage. Similarly, fiber-optic distributed temperature and acoustic sensing provide additional information for assessing unwanted movement of fluid, which is indicative of problems either inside or outside of casing. Furthermore, these technologies offer the benefit of providing real-time continuous streams of information that serve as leading-indicators of wellbore problems to allow for early intervention. Additional research is still needed to develop best practices for the installation and operation of these technologies, as they increase cost and add additional risks that must be managed.

Religiosity and Risky Sexual Behaviors among an African American Church-based Population

PubMed Central

Hawes, Starlyn M.; Berkley-Patton, Jannette Y.

2014-01-01

African Americans are disproportionately burdened by STDs and HIV in the US. This study examined the relationships between demographics, religiosity, and sexual risk behaviors among 255 adult African American church-based participants. Although participants were highly religious, they reported an average of seven lifetime sex partners and most inconsistently used condoms. Several demographic variables and religiosity significantly predicted lifetime HIV-related risk factors. Taken together, findings indicated that this population is at risk for HIV. Future research should continue to identify correlates of risky sexual behavior among African American parishioners to facilitate the development of HIV risk reduction interventions in their church settings. PMID:23054481

Trends in Reported Foodborne Illness in the United States; 1996-2013.

PubMed

Powell, Mark R

2016-08-01

Retrospective review is a key to designing effective food safety measures. The analysis examines trends in the reported incidence of illness due to bacterial pathogens commonly transmitted by food in the United States during 1996-2013 with and without specifying a model form for trend. The findings indicate early declines in reported incidence followed by a period of no significant trend for Campylobacter, Listeria, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157, and Yersinia. The results are inconclusive about whether there is no trend or an increasing trend for Salmonella. While Shigella exhibits a continuous decline, Vibrio exhibits a continuous increase. Overall, the findings indicate a lack of evidence for continuous reduction in illness due to bacterial pathogens commonly transmitted by food in the United States during 1996-2013. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Update on the epidemiology of the rheumatic diseases.

PubMed

Gabriel, S E

1996-03-01

Epidemiologic studies continue to enhance our understanding of the rheumatic diseases. Such studies now indicate that 26 million American women are at risk for osteoporotic fractures. Contrary to previous recommendations, the identification and treatment of patients at risk for osteoporosis may be valuable even among very elderly people. Other epidemiologic studies suggest that the incidence of rheumatoid arthritis is decreasing and that it is a more benign disease than previously recognized. Osteoarthritis remains a leading cause of physical and work disability in North America. The roles of occupational physical activity, obesity, and highly competitive (though not low-impact) exercise as risk factors for osteoarthritis continue to be explored. Pharmacoepidemiologic research has recently demonstrated that a policy of prior authorization for prescription of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may be highly cost effective. Finally, controlled epidemiologic studies have not confirmed an association between silicone breast implants and connective tissue diseases, a conclusion recently endorsed by the American College of Rheumatology.

The NASA Continuous Risk Management Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pokorny, Frank M.

2004-01-01

As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics are established and monitored as tools for risk tracking. Also a trigger or threshold should be set on the metric data that indicates when an action is needed. Results of this tracking are usually evaluated and reported in a relevant format at weekly or monthly meetings. Choosing controls is the subsequent step, which involves the effects of the tracking. The three basic controls are: close, continue tracking, and re- plan. Finally communicate & document is the last step, but occurs throughout the process. It is vital that main risks, plans, changes, and progress are known by everyone in the project. A good way to keep everyone updated and inform other projects of common issues is by thoroughly documenting project risks. NASA sees value in risk management and believes that projects have greater probability or success by using the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process.

78 FR 65322 - Proposed Data Collections Submitted for Public Comment and Recommendations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-31

... days of this notice. Proposed Project Clostridium difficile Infection (CDI) Surveillance (0920-0892... rate and severity of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) indicate a clear need to conduct longitudinal assessments to continue to monitor changes in CDI epidemiology, including changes in risk factors...

Planning, Implementation, and Evaluation of AIDS Education Programs for Dentists.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerbert, Barbara; And Others

1991-01-01

An office-based continuing education program on acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) for dentists is described, including needs assessment, model development, local piloting, national implementation with 119 dentists, and evaluation phases. Program evaluation indicated an improvement in risk perception, knowledge, and practice resulted, but…

Online continuing education course enhances nutrition and health professionals' knowledge of food safety issues of high-risk populations.

PubMed

Wallner, Stephanie; Kendall, Patricia; Hillers, Virginia; Bradshaw, Eva; Medeiros, Lydia C

2007-08-01

To develop and evaluate the efficacy of an online continuing education course for professionals who provide food safety information to high-risk populations. A 2-credit graduate-level class was converted into six web-based modules (overview of foodborne illness, immunology, pregnancy, human immunodeficiency virus, cancer and transplants, and lifecycle) and offered to nutrition and health professionals. Participants had 8 weeks to complete the modules, pre and post questionnaires, and course evaluation. Those who successfully completed the protocol received six continuing education units from one of three professional associations. Change in knowledge was measured using pre and post questionnaires. Course efficacy was evaluated using a post-course questionnaire. A convenience sample of 140 registered dietitians/dietetic technicians registered, nurses, and extension educators were recruited through professional conferences and electronic mailing lists to take the course. Analysis of variance was used to evaluate differences in knowledge scores for all groups across five main effects (attempt, module, profession, age, and education). Course evaluation responses were used to assess course effectiveness. For each module, knowledge scores increased significantly (P<0.001) from pre to post questionnaire. Overall, knowledge scores increased from 67.3% before the modules to 91.9% afterwards. Course evaluation responses were favorable, and participants indicated that course objectives were met. Online continuing education courses, such as "Food Safety Issues for High Risk Populations," seem to be a convenient, effective option for dietetics professionals, nurses, and extension educators seeking knowledge about food safety issues of high-risk populations. Online learning is a promising delivery approach for the continuing education of health professionals.

Oral and inhaled glucocorticoid use and risk of Achilles or biceps tendon rupture: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Spoendlin, Julia; Meier, Christian; Jick, Susan S; Meier, Christoph R

2015-01-01

Tendinotoxicity of glucocorticoids (GC) has been shown, but evidence on how this translates into clinical practice remains scarce. To explore the association between oral or inhaled GC use and the risk of Achilles or biceps tendon rupture (ATR/BTR). We identified patients aged 18 to 89 years with incident ATR or BTR (1995-2013) for a matched (1:4) case-control analysis using the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We stratified oral GC use by indication, timing and duration of use, continuous versus intermittent use, cumulative dose, and average daily dose. We stratified inhaled GC use by timing and number of prescriptions. Among 8,202 cases, we observed increased odds ratios (ORs) around 3.0 for continuous oral GC use, which declined shortly after therapy cessation (similarly across indications). Odds ratios increased with average daily dose (≥ 10 mg/day, OR 4.05, 95% CI 2.32-7.08) and were elevated after one cycle of high-dose oral GC (≥ 20 mg/day). There was no effect of inhaled GC at any level of exposure. Our results provide evidence that oral GC therapy increases the risk of tendon rupture in a dose-response relationship. A single short-term high-dose GC treatment course may be sufficient transiently to increase the risk of tendon rupture.

New antithrombotic agents in the ambulatory setting.

PubMed

Gibbs, Neville M; Weightman, William M; Watts, Stephen A

2014-12-01

Many patients presenting for surgical or other procedures in an ambulatory setting are taking new antiplatelet or anticoagulant agents. This review assesses how the novel features of these new agents affect the management of antithrombotic therapy in the ambulatory setting. There have been very few studies investigating the relative risks of continuing or ceasing new antithrombotic agents. Recent reviews indicate that the new antithrombotic agents offer greater efficacy or ease of administration but are more difficult to monitor or reverse. They emphasize the importance of assessing the bleeding risk of the procedure, the thrombotic risk if the agent is ceased, and patient factors that increase the likelihood of bleeding. The timing of cessation of the agent, if required, depends on its pharmacokinetics and patients' bleeding risks. Patients at high risk of thrombotic complications may require bridging therapy. Once agreed upon, the perioperative plan should be made clear to all involved. As there are few clinical studies to guide management, clinicians must make rational decisions in relation to continuing or ceasing new antithrombotic agents. This requires knowledge of their pharmacokinetics, and a careful multidisciplinary assessment of the relative thrombotic and bleeding risks in individual patients.

Should child protection services respond differently to maltreatment, risk of maltreatment, and risk of harm?

PubMed

Fallon, Barbara; Trocmé, Nico; MacLaurin, Bruce

2011-04-01

To examine evidence available in large-scale North American datasets on child abuse and neglect that can assist in understanding the complexities of child protection case classifications. A review of child abuse and neglect data from large North American epidemiological studies including the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (CIS), the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS), and the National Incidence Studies of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (NIS). The authors of this paper argue that recent evidence from large North American epidemiological studies examining the incidence of child abuse and neglect demonstrate that children and families identified as being at risk of maltreatment present with as many household and caregiver concerns as investigations that are substantiated. In order to continue to develop appropriate services and policies for vulnerable children the authors urge continue definitional clarity for research in child maltreatment that considers the exemplars or indicators of categories, in tandem with parental and child characteristics which can provide one source of evidence-basis to meaningful child protection case classifications. Continued monitoring, refined by the dilemmas faced in practice, are critical for a continued public health investment in children's well-being, predicated upon upholding children's rights. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavioural change in injecting drug users: evaluation of an HIV/AIDS education programme.

PubMed

Martin, G S; Serpelloni, G; Galvan, U; Rizzetto, A; Gomma, M; Morgante, S; Rezza, G

1990-01-01

The results obtained from the training and follow-up of 189 IDUs who participated in a programme consisting of an audiovisual presentation, pre-/post-testing and individual counselling are presented. Syringe sharing decreased from 35% at initial contact to 12% after 6 months. Sexual behaviour proved more resistant to change. However, condom use in at-risk situations increased from 49% to 70%. IDUs under continuous methadone treatment were less likely to engage high risk drug injecting practices than the other IDUs. Results indicate that an educational programme addressed toward risk reduction may determine relevant behavioural change among IDUs.

Comparing microbial water quality in an intermittent and continuous piped water supply.

PubMed

Kumpel, Emily; Nelson, Kara L

2013-09-15

Supplying piped water intermittently is a common practice throughout the world that increases the risk of microbial contamination through multiple mechanisms. Converting an intermittent supply to a continuous supply has the potential to improve the quality of water delivered to consumers. To understand the effects of this upgrade on water quality, we tested samples from reservoirs, consumer taps, and drinking water provided by households (e.g. from storage containers) from an intermittent and continuous supply in Hubli-Dharwad, India, over one year. Water samples were tested for total coliform, Escherichia coli, turbidity, free chlorine, and combined chlorine. While water quality was similar at service reservoirs supplying the continuous and intermittent sections of the network, indicator bacteria were detected more frequently and at higher concentrations in samples from taps supplied intermittently compared to those supplied continuously (p < 0.01). Detection of E. coli was rare in continuous supply, with 0.7% of tap samples positive compared to 31.7% of intermittent water supply tap samples positive for E. coli. In samples from both continuously and intermittently supplied taps, higher concentrations of total coliform were measured after rainfall events. While source water quality declined slightly during the rainy season, only tap water from intermittent supply had significantly more indicator bacteria throughout the rainy season compared to the dry season. Drinking water samples provided by households in both continuous and intermittent supplies had higher concentrations of indicator bacteria than samples collected directly from taps. Most households with continuous supply continued to store water for drinking, resulting in re-contamination, which may reduce the benefits to water quality of converting to continuous supply. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Geographic Diversification on Risk Pooling to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Losses for Water Utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, Rachel; Characklis, Gregory W.; Serre, Marc L.

2018-04-01

As the costs and regulatory barriers to new water supply development continue to rise, drought management strategies have begun to rely more heavily on temporary conservation measures. While these measures are effective, they often lead to intermittent and unpredictable reductions in revenues that are financially disruptive to water utilities, raising concerns over lower credit ratings and higher rates of borrowing for this capital intensive sector. Consequently, there is growing interest in financial risk management strategies that reduce utility vulnerabilities. This research explores the development of financial index insurance designed to compensate a utility for drought-related losses. The focus is on analyzing candidate hydrologic indices that have the potential to be used by utilities across the US, increasing the potential for risk pooling, which would offer the possibility of both lower risk management costs and more widespread implementation. This work first analyzes drought-related financial risks for 315 publicly operated water utilities across the country and examines the effectiveness of financial contracts based on several indices both in terms of their correlation with utility revenues and their spatial autocorrelation across locations. Hydrologic-based index insurance contracts are then developed and tested over a 120 year period. Results indicate that risk pooling, even under conditions in which droughts are subject to some level of spatial autocorrelation, has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of managing financial risk.

Intergenerational Transmission of Maltreatment: A Multilevel Examination

PubMed Central

Leve, Leslie D.; Khurana, Atika; Reich, Emily B.

2015-01-01

Despite the commonly held belief that there is a high degree of intergenerational continuity in maltreatment, studies to date suggest a mixed pattern of findings. One reason for the variance in findings may be related to the measurement approach used, which includes a range of self-report and official indicators of maltreatment and both cross-sectional and longitudinal designs. This study attempted to shed light on the phenomenon of intergenerational continuity of maltreatment by examining multiple indicators of perpetration of maltreatment in young adults and multiple risk factors across different levels within an individual’s social ecology. The sample included 166 women who had been placed in out-of-home care as adolescents (>85% had a substantiated maltreatment incident) and followed into young adulthood, and included three waves of adolescent data and six waves of young adult data collected across 10 years. The participants were originally recruited during adolescence as part of a randomized controlled trial examining the efficacy of the Treatment Foster Care Oregon intervention. Analyses revealed weak to modest associations between the three indicators of perpetration of maltreatment in young adulthood, i.e., official child welfare records, self-reported child welfare system involvement, and self-reported maltreatment (r = .03–.51). Further, different patterns of prediction emerged as a function of the measurement approach. Adolescent delinquency was a significant predictor of subsequent self-reported child welfare contact, and young adult partner risk was a significant predictor of perpetration of maltreatment as indexed by both official child welfare records and self-reported child welfare contact. In addition, women who were originally assigned to the intervention condition reported perpetrating less maltreatment during young adulthood. Implications for measurement and interventions related to reducing the risk for intergenerational transmission of risk are discussed. PMID:26535935

Cannabis and Neuropsychiatry, 2: The Longitudinal Risk of Psychosis as an Adverse Outcome.

PubMed

Andrade, Chittaranjan

2016-06-01

Psychosis is one of the most serious among the adverse effects associated with cannabis use. The association between cannabis use and psychosis has been variously explored in a series of recent meta-analyses. The results of these meta-analyses show that persons who develop psychosis experience onset of psychosis about 2-3 years earlier if they are cannabis users; this effect is not observed with alcohol or other substance use. Higher levels of cannabis use are associated with greater risk of psychosis. Current cannabis abuse or dependence (but not past use or lower levels of current use) increases the risk of transition into psychosis in persons at ultrahigh risk of psychosis. About a third of patients with first-episode psychosis are cannabis users, and, at follow-up, about half of these users are found to continue their cannabis use. Continued cannabis use (in those who are treated after developing psychosis) is associated with higher risk of relapse into psychosis, and discontinuation of cannabis use reduces the risk of relapse to that in cannabis nonusers. Finally, persons with psychosis who continue to use cannabis have more severe positive symptoms and poorer levels of functioning. Because experimental studies in humans show that cannabinoids and cannabis can induce psychotic symptoms, it is reasonable to assume that the epidemiologic data indicate a causal effect of cannabis in anticipating, triggering, or exacerbating psychosis in vulnerable individuals and in worsening the course and outcome of the illness in those who continue to use the substance. Given the public health implications of these findings, the trend to legalize medical marijuana must be viewed with concern, and efforts are necessary to educate patients and the public about the serious mental and physical health risks associated with cannabis use and abuse. © Copyright 2016 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

P-Wave Indices and Risk of Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

He, Jinli; Tse, Gary; Korantzopoulos, Panagiotis; Letsas, Konstantinos P; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Kamel, Hooman; Li, Guangping; Lip, Gregory Y H; Liu, Tong

2017-08-01

Atrial cardiomyopathy is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. P-wave terminal force in lead V 1 , P-wave duration, and maximum P-wave area are electrocardiographic parameters that have been used to assess left atrial abnormalities related to developing atrial fibrillation. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine their values for predicting ischemic stroke risk. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched until December 2016 for studies that evaluated the association between P-wave indices and stroke risk. Both fixed- and random-effects models were used to calculate the overall effect estimates. Ten studies examining P-wave terminal force in lead V 1 , P-wave duration, and maximum P-wave area were included. P-wave terminal force in lead V 1 was found to be an independent predictor of stroke as both a continuous variable (odds ratio [OR] per 1 SD change, 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.25; P <0.0001) and categorical variable (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.10-2.28; P =0.01). P-wave duration was a significant predictor of incident ischemic stroke when analyzed as a categorical variable (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.37-2.52; P <0.0001) but not when analyzed as a continuous variable (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.98-1.13; P =0.15). Maximum P-wave area also predicted the risk of incident ischemic stroke (OR per 1 SD change, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.17). P-wave terminal force in lead V 1 , P-wave duration, and maximum P-wave area are useful electrocardiographic markers that can be used to stratify the risk of incident ischemic stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Treatment of cardiovascular Risk in Primary care using Electronic Decision supOrt (TORPEDO) study-intervention development and protocol for a cluster randomised, controlled trial of an electronic decision support and quality improvement intervention in Australian primary healthcare.

PubMed

Peiris, David; Usherwood, Tim; Panaretto, Katie; Harris, Mark; Hunt, Jenny; Patel, Bindu; Zwar, Nicholas; Redfern, Julie; Macmahon, Stephen; Colagiuri, Stephen; Hayman, Noel; Patel, Anushka

2012-01-01

Large gaps exist in the implementation of guideline recommendations for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk management. Electronic decision support (EDS) systems are promising interventions to close these gaps but few have undergone clinical trial evaluation in Australia. We have developed HealthTracker, a multifaceted EDS and quality improvement intervention to improve the management of CVD risk. It is hypothesised that the use of HealthTracker over a 12-month period will result in: (1) an increased proportion of patients receiving guideline-indicated measurements of CVD risk factors and (2) an increased proportion of patients at high risk will receive guideline-indicated prescriptions for lowering their CVD risk. Sixty health services (40 general practices and 20 Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services (ACCHSs) will be randomised in a 1:1 allocation to receive either the intervention package or continue with usual care, stratified by service type, size and participation in existing quality improvement initiatives. The intervention consists of point-of-care decision support; a risk communication interface; a clinical audit tool to assess performance on CVD-related indicators; a quality improvement component comprising peer-ranked data feedback and support to develop strategies to improve performance. The control arm will continue with usual care without access to these intervention components. Quantitative data will be derived from cross-sectional samples at baseline and end of study via automated data extraction. Detailed process and economic evaluations will also be conducted. The general practice component of the study is approved by the University of Sydney Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) and the ACCHS component is approved by the Aboriginal Health and Medical Research Council HREC. Formal agreements with each of the participating sites have been signed. In addition to the usual scientific forums, results will be disseminated via newsletters, study websites, face-to-face feedback forums and workshops. The trial is registered with the Australian Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN 12611000478910.

[Mega-dosages vitamin D: progressive medicine?].

PubMed

Kerstens, P J; van Ditzhuijsen, T J; van Tongeren, J H

1990-10-06

Although the risk of vitamin intoxication is well recognised, massive doses of these preparations continue to be prescribed, especially in the so-called 'alternative' medical sector. We describe a patient with hypervitaminosis D due to administration of megadoses of vitamin D in the absence of an obvious indication. Mode of action and symptoms of vitamin D intoxication are discussed. It is emphasized that vitamin preparations should only be used when strictly indicated and that close clinical and biochemical supervision is necessary.

Sleep and Hypertension

PubMed Central

Harding, Susan M.

2010-01-01

Ambulatory BP studies indicate that even small increases in BP, particularly nighttime BP levels, are associated with significant increases in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Accordingly, sleep-related diseases that induce increases in BP would be anticipated to substantially affect cardiovascular risk. Both sleep deprivation and insomnia have been linked to increases in incidence and prevalence of hypertension. Likewise, sleep disruption attributable to restless legs syndrome increases the likelihood of having hypertension. Observational studies demonstrate a strong correlation between the severity of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and the risk and severity of hypertension, whereas prospective studies of patients with OSA demonstrate a positive relationship between OSA and risk of incident hypertension. Intervention trials with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) indicate a modest, but inconsistent effect on BP in patients with severe OSA and a greater likelihood of benefit in patients with most CPAP adherence. Additional prospective studies are needed to reconcile observational studies suggesting that OSA is a strong risk factor for hypertension with the modest antihypertensive effects of CPAP observed in intervention studies. PMID:20682533

Evaluation of the Psychometric Properties of the Revised Inventory of the Dimensions of Emerging Adulthood (IDEA-R) in a Sample of Continuation High School Students.

PubMed

Lisha, Nadra E; Grana, Rachel; Sun, Ping; Rohrbach, Louise; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Reifman, Alan; Sussman, Steve

2014-06-01

It is now presumed that youth do not move directly from adolescence to adulthood, but rather pass through a transitional period, "emerging adulthood." The Revised Inventory of the Dimensions of Emerging Adulthood (IDEA-R) is a self-report instrument developed to examine the attributes of this period. "At-risk" youth appear to enter emerging adulthood developmental tasks at a slightly earlier age than general population youth. In the present study, a 21-item version of the IDEA was administered to a sample of 1676 "at-risk" continuation (alternative) high school students in Southern California. Principal component factor analysis with orthogonal rotation revealed three factors the authors labeled "Identity Exploration," "Experimentation/Possibilities," and "Independence." Overall, the measure demonstrated high internal consistency. Construct validity analyses indicated that the measure was correlated with demographics, risk behaviors, and psychological measures. The authors conclude that the IDEA-R is a useful instrument for measuring emerging adulthood in at-risk populations. © The Author(s) 2012.

GENOMIC IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL RISK FACTORS DURING ACETAMINOPHEN-INDUCED LIVER DISEASE IN SUSCEPTIBLE AND RESISTANT STRAINS OF MICE

EPA Science Inventory

Drug-induced liver disease (DILD) continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality and impair new drug development. Mounting evidence suggests that DILD is a complex, multifactorial disease in which no one factor is likely to be an absolute indicator of susceptibility. As a...

Insidious Influence of Gender Socialization on Females' Physical Activity: Rethink Pink

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mullins, Nicole M.

2015-01-01

Continually accumulating information on the health risks associated with sedentary lifestyles indicates a severe public health need for increased physical activity, as well as for careful attention to factors that can curtail it. Study and documentation of such factors, however, are not enough to promote widespread change in firmly established…

The Attention Skills and Academic Performance of Aggressive/Rejected and Low Aggressive/Popular Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Beverly J.; Petaja, Holly; Mancil, Larissa

2011-01-01

Research Findings: Aggressive/rejected children are at risk for continuing conduct and school problems. Some limited research indicates that these children have attention problems. Previous research has linked attention problems with academic performance. The current study investigated group differences in attention skills and the role of these…

Radiofrequency electromagnetic fields emitted from base stations of DECT cordless phones and the risk of glioma and meningioma (Interphone Study Group, Germany).

PubMed

Schüz, Joachim; Böhler, Eva; Schlehofer, Brigitte; Berg, Gabriele; Schlaefer, Klaus; Hettinger, Iris; Kunna-Grass, Katharina; Wahrendorf, Jürgen; Blettner, Maria

2006-07-01

The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that exposure to continuous low-level radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF EMFs) increases the risk of glioma and meningioma. Participants in a population-based case-control study in Germany on the risk of brain tumors in relation to cellular phone use were 747 incident brain tumor cases between the ages of 30 and 69 years and 1494 matched controls. The exposure measure of this analysis was the location of a base station of a DECT (Digital Enhanced Cordless Telecommunications) cordless phone close to the bed, which was used as a proxy for continuous low-level exposure to RF EMFs during the night. Estimated odds ratios were 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.29-2.33) for glioma and 0.83 (0.29-2.36) for meningioma. There was also no increasing risk observed with duration of exposure to DECT cordless phone base stations. Although the study was limited due to the small number of exposed subjects, it is still a first indication that residential low-level exposure to RF EMFs may not pose a higher risk of brain tumors.

Continuous Risk Management Course. Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammer, Theodore F.

1999-01-01

This document includes a course plan for Continuous Risk Management taught by the Software Assurance Technology Center along with the Continuous Risk Management Guidebook of the Software Engineering Institute of Carnegie Mellon University and a description of Continuous Risk Management at NASA.

Proton Pump Inhibitors in Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease: Friend or Foe.

PubMed

Gyawali, C Prakash

2017-09-01

Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use in gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) has been redefined, in light of recent advances highlighting GERD phenotypes that respond to PPIs, and fresh revelations of potential risks of long-term PPI therapy. Erosive esophagitis predicts excellent response to PPI therapy, but non-erosive reflux disease (NERD) with abnormal reflux parameters on ambulatory reflux monitoring also demonstrates a similar response. In contrast, response is suboptimal in the absence of abnormal reflux parameters. In this setting, if an alternate appropriate indication for PPI therapy does not coexist, risks may outweigh benefits of PPI therapy. Adverse events from long-term PPI therapy continue to be reported, most based on association rather than cause-and-effect. Appropriate indications need to be established before embarking on long-term PPI therapy. Future research will define true risks of long-term PPI therapy, and develop alternate management options for acid peptic diseases.

Children's cognitive ability from 4 to 9 years old as a function of prenatal cocaine exposure, environmental risk, and maternal verbal intelligence.

PubMed

Bennett, David S; Bendersky, Margaret; Lewis, Michael

2008-07-01

This study examined the effects of prenatal cocaine exposure, environmental risk, and maternal verbal intelligence on children's cognitive ability. Gender and age were examined as moderators of potential cocaine exposure effects. The Stanford-Binet IV intelligence test was administered to 231 children (91 cocaine exposed, 140 unexposed) at ages 4, 6, and 9 years. Neonatal medical risk and other prenatal exposures (alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana) were also examined for their unique effects on child IQ. Mixed models analysis indicated that prenatal cocaine exposure interacted with gender, as cocaine-exposed boys had lower composite IQ scores. Age at assessment did not moderate this relation, indicating that cocaine-exposed boys had lower IQs across this age period. A stimulating home environment and high maternal verbal IQ also predicted higher composite IQ scores. Cocaine-exposed boys had lower scores on the Abstract/Visual Reasoning subscale, with trends for lower scores on the Short-Term Memory and Verbal Reasoning subscales, as exposure effects were observed across domains. The findings indicate that cocaine exposure continues to place children at risk for mild cognitive deficits into preadolescence. Possible mechanisms for the Exposure x Gender interaction are discussed.

Adolescent neglect, juvenile delinquency and the risk of recidivism.

PubMed

Ryan, Joseph P; Williams, Abigail B; Courtney, Mark E

2013-03-01

Victims of child abuse and neglect are at an increased risk of involvement with the juvenile justice and adult correctional systems. Yet, little is known about the continuation and trajectories of offending beyond initial contact with law enforcement. Neglect likely plays a critical role in continued offending as parental monitoring, parental rejection and family relationships are instrumental in explaining juvenile conduct problems. This study sought to determine whether neglect is associated with recidivism for moderate and high risk juvenile offenders in Washington State. Statewide risk assessments and administrative records for child welfare, juvenile justice, and adult corrections were analyzed. The sample was diverse (24 % female, 13 % African American, 8 % Hispanic, 5 % Native American) and included all moderate and high risk juvenile offenders screened by juvenile probation between 2004 and 2007 (n = 19,833). Official records from child protection were used to identify juvenile offenders with a history of child neglect and to identify juvenile offenders with an ongoing case of neglect. Event history models were developed to estimate the risk of subsequent offending. Adolescents with an ongoing case neglect were significantly more likely to continue offending as compared with youth with no official history of neglect. These findings remain even after controlling for a wide range of family, peer, academic, mental health, and substance abuse covariates. Interrupting trajectories of offending is a primary focus of juvenile justice. The findings of the current study indicate that ongoing dependency issues play a critical role in explaining the outcomes achieved for adolescents in juvenile justice settings. The implications for improved collaboration between child welfare and juvenile justice are discussed.

Prioritizing Information for Quality Improvement Using Resident Assessment Instrument Data: Experiences in One Canadian Province

PubMed Central

Sales, Anne; O'Rourke, Hannah M.; Draper, Kellie; Teare, Gary F.; Maxwell, Colleen

2011-01-01

Purpose: To elicit priority rankings of indicators of quality of care among providers and decision-makers in continuing care in Alberta, Canada. Methods: We used modified nominal group technique to elicit priorities and criteria for prioritization among the quality indicators and resident/client assessment protocols developed by the interRAI consortium for use in long-term care and home care. Results: The top-ranked items from the long-term care assessment data were pressure ulcers, pain and incontinence. The top-ranked items from the home care data were pain, falls and proportion of clients at high risk for residential placement. Participants considered a variety of issues in deciding how to rank the indicators. Implications: This work reflects the beginning of a process to better understand how providers and policy makers can work together to assess priorities for quality improvement within continuing care. PMID:22294992

Occupational safety and health in Japan: current situations and the future.

PubMed

Sakurai, Haruhiko

2012-01-01

The Industrial Safety and Health Law enacted in 1972 has contributed much to the progress of occupational safety and health (OSH) activities. Many indicators including death and illness statistics show continued improvement up to date. The establishment of OSH organization within enterprises and 5-yr administrative programs formulated by the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare (MHLW) were important factors for satisfactory management. The past programs indicate that the weight of self regulation in comparison to legal control gradually increased since late 1990s. In spite of the past achievement, many hazards such as overwork, mental stress, chemical agents and others still remain to be prevented. The systematic risk assessment of unregulated chemicals by the MHLW proved to be an effective scheme for risk-based management and to deserve continued implementation. The size of human resources for OSH was estimated at 1.5 million. In view of the adverse effect on OSH by economic, social and political environment in the future, the importance of the efficiency of OSH management was indicated. Since the efficiency depends on the competence of OSH personnel and the level of scientific basis, it was concluded that the fundamental policy for the future should give high priority to education and research.

Violence prediction in the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Downey, La Vonne A; Zun, Leslie S

2007-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether the SAGE assessment survey could predict, within the Emergency Department setting, those youth at risk for engaging in violent behavior. It also examined whether those who test positive for engaging in high-risk violent behavior during the initial baseline SAGE survey were prone to continue this behavior 1 month later. This was an observation, convenience sample of young male and female patients, half of whom had injuries related to violence and half of whom had injuries unrelated to violence, who presented when a research fellow was available. They were given the SAGE aggression assessment survey and questioned about their risk behavior in the past 6 months to 1 year. Those youths were contacted 1 month after enrollment to determine the incidence of continued at-risk behavior. Demographic information was used to contact the patient on follow-up but not for identification purposes. The study was IRB-approved. The setting was a Level I pediatric and adult trauma center in an inner city with 45,000 annual visits. The inclusion criteria were: age 10-24 years, consenting patient or guardian, medically stable, and able to communicate. The exclusion criteria were: those youths who were uncooperative or refused to participate. The comparison between the SAGE overall scores of the 182 subjects with 46% who had injuries related to violence vs. 54% who presented with injuries not related to violence did not show a significant difference. Those who presented with non-violent injuries had an overall score range of 7-8 with a mean of 7.4 and those who presented with violent injuries had an overall scale of 10-11 with a mean of 10.1 out of a possible 12 total. There were, however, significant differences at the .05 or less level when looking at specific questions asking about certain behaviors such as physical fighting, shoving, needing medical attention, and kicking, in the initial survey. At the 1-month follow-up, with 118 subjects, the SAGE tool also showed differences in the areas of physical fighting, shoving, and kicking between the 56% who had injuries not related to violence vs. the 44% who did have violence-related injuries. It identified 18-50% of those who presented with violence-related injuries and who continued to engage in high-risk behavior at the 1-month follow-up. These results indicate that the SAGE survey scores based on the responses to all 12 questions is not effective in identifying those youths at risk for general violent behavior, especially with a high-risk population. A set of four questions from the 12-question SAGE survey, however, was successful at tracking specific types of at-risk behaviors. This indicates that certain questions within the SAGE survey may be effective at tracking those who engage in high-risk violent behavior. These same questions were able to track those who continued to engage in high-risk violent behaviors 1 month later.

Quality Management and Key Performance Indicators in Oncologic Esophageal Surgery.

PubMed

Gockel, Ines; Ahlbrand, Constantin Johannes; Arras, Michael; Schreiber, Elke Maria; Lang, Hauke

2015-12-01

Ranking systems and comparisons of quality and performance indicators will be of increasing relevance for complex "high-risk" procedures such as esophageal cancer surgery. The identification of evidence-based standards relevant for key performance indicators in esophageal surgery is essential for establishing monitoring systems and furthermore a requirement to enhance treatment quality. In the course of this review, we analyze the key performance indicators case volume, radicality of resection, and postoperative morbidity and mortality, leading to continuous quality improvement. Ranking systems established on this basis will gain increased relevance in highly complex procedures within the national and international comparison and furthermore improve the treatment of patients with esophageal carcinoma.

Hyperkalemia in the Hypertensive Patient.

PubMed

Lakkis, Jay Ian; Weir, Matthew R

2018-03-01

Hyperkalemia develops in a patient with systemic arterial hypertension (HTN) if one or more risk factors are present, namely chronic kidney disease (CKD) (especially severe stage 4-5 CKD), diabetes mellitus (DM), heart failure (HF), or pharmacological therapies that interfere with potassium homeostasis, mainly through renin-angiotensin-aldosterone inhibition (RAASi). Hyperkalemia is a considerable reason of morbidity (emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations) and portends a higher mortality risk in patients at risk; for instance, hyperkalemia increases the risk of mortality within 1 day of a hyperkalemic event. This review aims to identify the risk factors for high-serum potassium, highlight the risk versus benefit of RAASi in certain patient populations, and outline preventive as well as therapeutic strategies for hyperkalemia. A growing body of evidence supports the safety and efficacy of cation-exchange resins, patiromer, or sodium zirconium cyclosilicate, in patients with a compelling indication for RAASi, yet in whom such therapy was complicated by hyperkalemia, allowing these patients to benefit from continued RAASi therapy. In summary, novel cation exchange polymers present the clinician with a new and safe strategy to address hyperkalemia in patients with a compelling indication for ongoing RAASi therapy instead of withdrawal of such therapy.

Analysis of indication for laparoscopic right colectomy and conversion risks.

PubMed

Del Rio, Paolo; Bertocchi, Elisa; Madoni, Cristiana; Viani, Lorenzo; Dell'Abate, Paolo; Sianesi, Mario

2016-01-01

Laparoscopic surgery developed continuously over the past years becoming the gold standard for some surgical interventions. Laparoscopic colorectal surgery is well established as a safe and feasible procedure to treat benign and malignant pathologies. In this paper we studied in deep the role of laparoscopic right colectomy analysing the indications to this surgical procedure and the factors related to the conversion from laparoscopy to open surgery. We described the different surgical techniques of laparoscopic right colectomy comparing extra to intracorporeal anastomosis and we pointed out the different ways to access to the abdomen (multiport VS single incision). The indications for laparoscopic right colectomy are benign (inflammatory bowel disease and rare right colonic diverticulitis) and malignant diseases (right colon cancer and appendiceal neuroendocrine neoplasm): we described the good outcomes of laparoscopic right colectomy in all these illnesses. Laparoscopic conversion rates in right colectomy are reported as 12-16%; we described the different type of risk factors related to open conversion: patient-related, disease-related and surgeon-related factors, procedural factors and intraoperative complications. We conclude that laparoscopic right colectomy is considered superior to open surgery in the shortterm outcomes without difference in long-term outcomes. Conversion risks, Indication to treatment, Laparoscopy, Post-operative pain, Right colectomy.

Association of anthropometric indices with continuous metabolic syndrome in children and adolescents: the CASPIAN-V study.

PubMed

Ejtahed, Hanieh-Sadat; Qorbani, Mostafa; Motlagh, Mohammad Esmaeil; Angoorani, Pooneh; Hasani-Ranjbar, Shirin; Ziaodini, Hasan; Taheri, Majzoubeh; Ahadi, Zeinab; Beshtar, Shaghayegh; Aminaee, Tahereh; Heshmat, Ramin; Kelishadi, Roya

2017-11-01

This study aims to examine the association of anthropometric indices with continuous metabolic syndrome (cMetS) among Iranian children and adolescents. This multicentric study was conducted on 14138 students aged 7-18 years, who participated in a national surveillance program. Fasting blood sample was obtained from a subsample of 3843 randomly selected students. Physical examination including the measurement of anthropometric indices and blood pressure was conducted; fasting blood glucose and lipid profile were measured; and cMetS score was computed. Standardized residuals (z-scores) were calculated for MetS components. A higher cMetS score indicates a less favorable metabolic profile. Linear regression models were applied to determine the association between cMetS and anthropometric indices. The study participants consisted of 3843 children and adolescents (52.3% boys) with mean (SD) age of 12.45 ± 3.04 years. All anthropometric indices had positive correlation with standardized scores of mean arterial pressure, waist circumference and cMetS (P < 0.05). Standardized scores of triglycerides were positively correlated with weight and body mass index (P < 0.05). In multivariate model, general and abdominal obesity, as well as high circumferences of neck, wrist, and hip circumferences increased the standardized cMetS risk score to 1.8, 1.9, 1.6, 1.5 and 1.5, respectively (P < 0.05 for all variables). The results demonstrated that higher anthropometric indices are associated with higher cMetS risk score in children and adolescents. This information could be valuable for screening and prevention of MetS at population level. V, cross-sectional descriptive study (National surveillance study).

An investigation of concentrated and distributed strain inducing constraints for training shape memory alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parent, Pauline Marie

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is a severe mental illness characterized by high rates of engagement in distress-induced risk behavior. Unfortunately, extant laboratory-based risk paradigms have failed to account for the role of distress in precipitating risk behavior, so many questions remain about processes mechanisms that underlie this behavior. The current study examined affect as a moderator of the relationship between diagnostic status and risk behavior, as measured by a behavioral risk task, and affective and non-affective neurocognitive functioning as potential mediators of this relationship. Results indicated that individuals with BPD engaged in more risk behavior in the distress condition than in the neutral condition, whereas individuals without BPD showed a decrease in risk behavior across the two conditions. However, corresponding changes in executive functioning were not observed, suggesting the need for continued research to identify alternative mechanisms (e.g., neurocognitive, motivational) to explain this effect.

Basics of Elbow Arthroscopy Part I: Surface Anatomy, Portals, and Structures at Risk.

PubMed

Camp, Christopher L; Degen, Ryan M; Sanchez-Sotelo, Joaquin; Altchek, David W; Dines, Joshua S

2016-12-01

As our knowledge and technology advance, the indications for elbow arthroscopy continue to grow rapidly. During this expansion, a number of new portals have been described and reported using variable nomenclature and location descriptions. Accordingly, a comprehensive review of these portals is warranted. Given the concern for potential iatrogenic injury to surrounding neurovascular structures, a discussion of these critical nerves and vessels is also timely. In this work, we review pertinent surface anatomy; portal nomenclature, locations, and utility; and review distances to the nearest structures at risk.

The Ultra-Marathoners of Human Smuggling: Defending Forward Against Dark Networks That Can Transport Terrorists Across American Land Borders

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

higher-risk immigrants known as special interest aliens (SIAs) from some 35 countries of interest in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia where...terrorist organizations operate. Yet ineffectiveness and episodic targeting are indicated, in part by continued migration from those countries to the U.S

Intertwining Risk Insights and Design Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornford, Steven L.; Feather, Martin S.; Jenkins, J. Steven

2006-01-01

The state of systems engineering is such that a form of early and continued use of risk assessments is conducted (as evidenced by NASA's adoption and use of the 'Continuous Risk Management' paradigm developed by SEI). ... However, these practices fall short of theideal: (1) Integration between risk assessment techniques and other systems engineering tools is weak. (2) Risk assessment techniques and the insights they yield are only informally coupled to design decisions. (3) Individual riskassessment techniques lack the mix of breadth, fidelity and agility required to span the gamut of the design space. In this paper we present an approach that addresses these shortcomings. The hallmark of our approach is a simple representation comprising objectives (what the system is to do), risks (whose occurrence would detract from attainment of objectives) and activities (a.k.a. 'mitigations') that, if performed, will decrease those risks. These are linked to indicate by how much a risk would detract from attainment of an objective, and by how much an activity would reduce a risk. The simplicity of our representational framework gives it the breadth to encompass the gamut of the design space concerns, the agility to be utilized in even the earliest phases of designs, and the capability to connect to system engineering models and higher-fidelity risk tools. It is through this integration that we address the shortcomings listed above, and so achieve the intertwining between risk insights and design decisions needed to guide systems engineering towards superior final designs while avoiding costly rework to achieve them. The paper will use an example, constructed to be representative of space mission design, to illustrate our approach.

Attributions and behaviours of parents abused as children: a mediational analysis of the intergenerational continuity of child maltreatment (Part II).

PubMed

Dixon, Louise; Hamilton-Giachritsis, Catherine; Browne, Kevin

2005-01-01

This study extends previous research (Dixon, Browne, & Hamilton-Giachritsis, 2004) by exploring the mediational properties of parenting styles and their relation to risk factors in the intergenerational cycle of child maltreatment. Families with newborns where at least one of the parents was physically and/or sexually abused as a child (AP families) were compared, in terms of parents' attributions and behaviour, to families where the parents had no childhood history of victimization (NAP families). Information was collected from 4351 families (135 AP families) by community nurses as part of the 'health visiting' service. The same health visitor visited each family twice at home when the child was 4 to 6 weeks and 3 to 5 months of age, to assess behavioural indicators of positive parenting. Within 13 months after birth, 9 (6.7%) AP families were referred for maltreating their own child in comparison to 18 (.4%) NAP families. Assessments found a significantly higher number of risk factors and measures indicating poor parenting for AP families. Mediational analysis found that intergenerational continuity of child maltreatment was explained to a larger extent (62% of the total effect) by the presence of poor parenting styles together with the three significant risk factors (parenting under 21 years, history of mental illness or depression, residing with a violent adult). The three risk factors alone were less explanatory (53% of the total effect). This study provides an explanation for why a minority of parents abused in childhood go on to maltreat their own infant, evidencing poor parenting styles and mediating risk factors. Hence, prevention may be enhanced in AP families by the promotion of 'positive parenting' in addition to providing additional support to young parents, tackling mental illness/depression and domestic violence problems.

Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

2013-04-01

Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits of different risk management measures. The following global data, models and methodologies will be available in the platform. Some of these will be released to the public already before, such as the ISC-GEM global instrumental catalogue (released January 2013). Datasets: • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Instrumental Catalogue [1900-2009] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model • Global Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerability Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators Models: • Seismic Source Models • Ground Motion (Attenuation) Models • Physical Exposure Models • Physical Vulnerability Models • Composite Index Models (social vulnerability, resilience, indirect loss) The aforementioned models developed under the GEM framework will be combined to produce estimates of hazard and risk at a global scale. Furthermore, building on many ongoing efforts and knowledge of scientists worldwide, GEM will integrate state-of-the-art data, models, results and open-source tools into a single platform that is to serve as a "clearinghouse" on seismic risk. The platform will continue to increase in value, in particular for use in local contexts, through contributions and collaborations with scientists and organisations worldwide.

When Dread Risks Are More Dreadful than Continuous Risks: Comparing Cumulative Population Losses over Time.

PubMed

Bodemer, Nicolai; Ruggeri, Azzurra; Galesic, Mirta

2013-01-01

People show higher sensitivity to dread risks, rare events that kill many people at once, compared with continuous risks, relatively frequent events that kill many people over a longer period of time. The different reaction to dread risks is often considered a bias: If the continuous risk causes the same number of fatalities, it should not be perceived as less dreadful. We test the hypothesis that a dread risk may have a stronger negative impact on the cumulative population size over time in comparison with a continuous risk causing the same number of fatalities. This difference should be particularly strong when the risky event affects children and young adults who would have produced future offspring if they had survived longer. We conducted a series of simulations, with varying assumptions about population size, population growth, age group affected by risky event, and the underlying demographic model. Results show that dread risks affect the population more severely over time than continuous risks that cause the same number of fatalities, suggesting that fearing a dread risk more than a continuous risk is an ecologically rational strategy.

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

PubMed

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

Conception of a method for the creation of volcanic risk index maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bion, P.; Van Wyk de Vries, B.; Valentine, G.

2012-04-01

Risk index maps are a variant of risk maps, having the advantage of containing unique kinds of information - levels of risk spatially represented - and can therefore be a more effective communication tool than traditional risk maps. Nevertheless, despite their apparent simplicity, their achievement is the result of a complex risk analysis, requiring the consideration of multidisciplinary indicators, expressing different parameters of the physical and human dimensions of the environment and their interactions. The risk index is obtained in three main stages: the definition of hazard and vulnerability indicators, the transformation of the indicators into subindices through mathematical processes (formulation, standardization, weighting), and the combination of the subindices into a final index. As of now, only few attempts of risk quantification have been done, related to landslide, flood or seismic hazards, and those linked to volcanic hazards are very incomplete because of the specificities and complexities of these kinds of events and their effects. Volcanic hazards have the particularity of being of different types, moreover all events can combine together or be combined with other external events (e.g. meteorological), and they can reach and therefore affect extensive areas by different phenomena. The methodology developed here assesses risk levels in regions potentially impacted by volcanic hazards. It incorporates volcanic hazard specificities and nuances of "vulnerability" by integrating the diversity of the environmental components. It analyses the natural and human strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, which are located within the areas potentially "at risk". Consequently, it considers negative but also positive indicators (respectively aggravating and improving the potential consequences), which can be internal but also external to the volcanic hazards. The approach also considers a temporal variability of the events and their direct or indirect associated effects. The developed approach tends to be especially aimed at urban planners, who would possess a new fundamental tool for organizing the territories located "nearby" volcanoes, in which population density is continually increasing. The volcanic risk index maps would give indications on the areas with the highest risk level, and the urban planners would also be able to determine the elements causing such level. This would lead them to the possibility of proposing recommendations and adequate measures to participate to the reduction of vulnerability, in particular in limiting the exposure and the impacts associated with the volcanic hazards, which would consequently reduce the volcanic risks.

Concussions in Community-Level Rugby: Risk, Knowledge, and Attitudes.

PubMed

Martin, R Kyle; Hrubeniuk, Travis J; Witiw, Christopher D; MacDonald, Peter; Leiter, Jeff

Rugby is a popular collision sport where participants are at risk of sustaining concussions. Most research focuses on elite-level or youth divisions. Comparatively, little is known about adult community rugby. The aim of this research was to estimate the risk of sustaining a concussion during participation in community-level rugby and summarize the collective knowledge and attitudes toward concussions. Concussion symptoms will be reported frequently among community-level rugby players and a substantial proportion will report a willingness to continue participation despite the risk. Cross-sectional analysis. Level 3. An anonymous, voluntary survey was administered to all 464 senior rugby players registered in the province of Manitoba in 2015. Two primary domains were assessed: (1) concussion history from the preceding season including occurrence, symptomatology, and impact on daily activities and (2) knowledge and attitudes toward concussion risks and management. In total, 284 (61.2%) rugby players responded. Concussive symptoms were reported by 106 (37.3%). Of those, 87% were formally diagnosed with a concussion and 27% missed school and/or work as a result. The danger of playing while symptomatic was recognized by 93.7% of participants, yet 29% indicated they would continue while symptomatic. Furthermore, 39% felt they were letting others down if they stopped playing due to a concussion. Concussive symptoms were common among the study cohort and had a notable impact on daily activities. A high proportion of players were willing to continue while experiencing symptoms despite recognizing the danger. The observed discord between knowledge and attitudes implicates a culture of "playing injured." Understanding the risk of injury may affect an individual's decision to participate in community-level rugby. Moreover, evidence of discord between the knowledge and attitudes of players may direct future research initiatives and league governance.

Differentiating children with and without a history of repeated problematic sexual behavior.

PubMed

Curwen, Tracey; Jenkins, Jennifer M; Worling, James R

2014-01-01

Many adolescents who sexually offend commenced problematic sexual behaviors as children. There is little evidence to indicate which children may be at risk to continue problematic sexual behaviors and which children will desist once identified. The goal of this study was to determine variables that differentiate children who repeated problematic sexual behaviors following adult reprimand from those who did not. Predictive accuracy of 33 risk variables was investigated using 62 children assessed for problematic sexual behaviors. Eight individual variables were related to group membership, and a total score based on the combination of these variables was predictive of group membership. The results indicate variables that may assist in identifying children requiring intervention versus those likely to discontinue problematic sexual behaviors once they are identified and reprimanded.

Utility of existing diabetes risk prediction tools for young black and white adults: Evidence from the Bogalusa Heart Study.

PubMed

Pollock, Benjamin D; Hu, Tian; Chen, Wei; Harville, Emily W; Li, Shengxu; Webber, Larry S; Fonseca, Vivian; Bazzano, Lydia A

2017-01-01

To evaluate several adult diabetes risk calculation tools for predicting the development of incident diabetes and pre-diabetes in a bi-racial, young adult population. Surveys beginning in young adulthood (baseline age ≥18) and continuing across multiple decades for 2122 participants of the Bogalusa Heart Study were used to test the associations of five well-known adult diabetes risk scores with incident diabetes and pre-diabetes using separate Cox models for each risk score. Racial differences were tested within each model. Predictive utility and discrimination were determined for each risk score using the Net Reclassification Index (NRI) and Harrell's c-statistic. All risk scores were strongly associated (p<.0001) with incident diabetes and pre-diabetes. The Wilson model indicated greater risk of diabetes for blacks versus whites with equivalent risk scores (HR=1.59; 95% CI 1.11-2.28; p=.01). C-statistics for the diabetes risk models ranged from 0.79 to 0.83. Non-event NRIs indicated high specificity (non-event NRIs: 76%-88%), but poor sensitivity (event NRIs: -23% to -3%). Five diabetes risk scores established in middle-aged, racially homogenous adult populations are generally applicable to younger adults with good specificity but poor sensitivity. The addition of race to these models did not result in greater predictive capabilities. A more sensitive risk score to predict diabetes in younger adults is needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

Intergenerational Continuity in Depression: The Importance of Time-Varying Effects, Maternal Co-morbid Health Risk Behaviors and Child's Gender.

PubMed

Augustyn, Megan Bears; Fulco, Celia J; Henry, Kimberly L

2018-01-12

Intergenerational continuity in depressive symptoms is well established between mother and child, but there are still important facets of this relationship that are underexplored. We examine intergenerational continuity in depressive symptoms between mother-child dyads as a flexible function of child age and account for the potential moderating role of maternal co-morbid health risk behaviors. Using prospective, self-report data collected yearly from 413 mother-child dyads (210 mother-son dyads and 203 mother-daughter dyads) between child ages 12-17, the results indicate that the effect of maternal depressive symptoms on daughters' depressive symptoms steadily increases throughout adolescence whereas the effect of maternal depressive symptoms on sons' depressive symptoms is relatively small, stable, and non-significant during mid-adolescence before increasing in effect in later adolescence. A positive interactive effect between maternal depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence is observed for sons and maternal depressive symptoms and substance use for daughters. A negative interactive effect of maternal depressive symptoms and substance use is observed among sons. Overall, this study identifies particular subgroups for whom intervention programming is most beneficial and suggests targeting health risk behaviors of mothers to lessen the impact of maternal depressive symptoms on offspring.

Chair rise transfer detection and analysis using a pendant sensor: an algorithm for fall risk assessment in older people.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Regterschot, G Ruben H; Wahle, Fabian; Geraedts, Hilde; Baldus, Heribert; Zijlstra, Wiebren

2014-01-01

Falls result in substantial disability, morbidity, and mortality among older people. Early detection of fall risks and timely intervention can prevent falls and injuries due to falls. Simple field tests, such as repeated chair rise, are used in clinical assessment of fall risks in older people. Development of on-body sensors introduces potential beneficial alternatives for traditional clinical methods. In this article, we present a pendant sensor based chair rise detection and analysis algorithm for fall risk assessment in older people. The recall and the precision of the transfer detection were 85% and 87% in standard protocol, and 61% and 89% in daily life activities. Estimation errors of chair rise performance indicators: duration, maximum acceleration, peak power and maximum jerk were tested in over 800 transfers. Median estimation error in transfer peak power ranged from 1.9% to 4.6% in various tests. Among all the performance indicators, maximum acceleration had the lowest median estimation error of 0% and duration had the highest median estimation error of 24% over all tests. The developed algorithm might be feasible for continuous fall risk assessment in older people.

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

PubMed Central

Renaud, Fabrice G.; Kloos, Julia; Walz, Yvonne; Rhyner, Jakob

2017-01-01

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented. PMID:28248969

Europe's Skill Challenge: Lagging Skill Demand Increases Risks of Skill Mismatch. Briefing Note

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cedefop - European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, 2012

2012-01-01

The main findings of Cedefop's latest skill demand and supply forecast for the European Union (EU) for 2010-20, indicate that although further economic troubles will affect the projected number of job opportunities, the major trends, including a shift to more skill-intensive jobs and more jobs in services, will continue. Between 2008 and 2010…

Reducing the Teen Death Rate. KIDS COUNT Indicator Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shore, Rima; Shore, Barbara

2009-01-01

Life continues to hold considerable risk for adolescents in the United States. In 2006, the teen death rate stood at 64 deaths per 100,000 teens (13,739 teens) (KIDS COUNT Data Center, 2009). Although it has declined by 4 percent since 2000, the rate of teen death in this country remains substantially higher than in many peer nations, based…

Minimum intervention dentistry: periodontics and implant dentistry.

PubMed

Darby, I B; Ngo, L

2013-06-01

This article will look at the role of minimum intervention dentistry in the management of periodontal disease. It will discuss the role of appropriate assessment, treatment and risk factors/indicators. In addition, the role of the patient and early intervention in the continuing care of dental implants will be discussed as well as the management of peri-implant disease. © 2013 Australian Dental Association.

A Framework for School Safety and Risk Management: Results from a Study of 18 Targeted School Shooters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lenhardt, Ann Marie C.; Graham, Lemuel W.; Farrell, Melissa L.

2018-01-01

Targeted violence continues to pose a threat to school safety. Reported here are the results of a study of 18 cases of school shooters from 1996 to 2012. Variables examined are individual factors and behaviors, family dynamics, and triggering events. Results indicate the need for expanded school-based mental health services, threat assessment, and…

The forgotten majority: unfinished business in cardiovascular risk reduction.

PubMed

Libby, Peter

2005-10-04

Despite meaningful progress in the identification of risk factors and the development of highly effective clinical tools, deaths from cardiovascular disease continue to increase worldwide. Sparked by an obesity epidemic, the metabolic syndrome and the rising incidence of type 2 diabetes have led to an upsurge of cardiovascular risk. Although pharmacologic treatments with the statin class of drugs have reduced cholesterol levels and lowered mortality rates, several large controlled clinical trials, including the Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study, the Cholesterol and Recurrent Events trial, the Air Force/Texas Coronary Atherosclerosis Prevention studies, and Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease study, have indicated that cardiovascular events continue to occur in two thirds of all patients. Follow-up studies, such as the Heart Protection Study and the Pravastatin or Atorvastatin Evaluation and Infection Therapy/Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction-22 trials, reinforced these earlier results. Although therapy with gemfibrozil, a fibric acid derivative, showed reduced occurrence of cardiovascular events in the Helsinki Heart Study and the Veterans Affairs HDL Intervention Trial, results of other studies, e.g., the Bezafibrate Intervention Program and the Diabetes Atherosclerosis Intervention study, showed less encouraging results. Although lifestyle modifications, such as improved diet and increased exercise levels, benefit general health and the metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in particular, most people continue to resist changes in their daily routines. Thus, physicians must continue to educate their patients regarding an optimal balance of drug therapy and personal behavior.

Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.

PubMed

Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J; Linthicum, Kenneth J

2006-12-28

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness. The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.

Ibrutinib continues to influence the therapeutic landscape of chronic lymphocytic leukemia: new data presented at ASCO 2017.

PubMed

Molica, Stefano

2017-08-16

According to data presented at the 2017 American Society of Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting, with more than 4 years of follow-up, ibrutinib continues to provide clinical utility in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). However, treatment of CLL patients with high-risk cytogenetics features remains a challenge and the outcome of these hard-to-treat patients is dismal. At the 2017 ASCO Meeting, results of the GENUINE phase III trial showed that, by adding ublituximab, a glycoengineered, anti-CD20 type 1 monoclonal antibody, to ibrutinib, the overall response rate (ORR), complete response rate (CRR), and minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity may be improved in high-risk CLL patients. A further way to improve the results obtained with Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitors is the parallel use of ibrutinib with chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy. Through this investigational approach, the rate of MRD negativity was shown to be higher, implying potential eradication of CLL. These novel data indicate that ibrutinib continues to have a positive effect in CLL.

Encouraging farmers to retrofit tractors: a qualitative analysis of risk perceptions among a group of high-risk farmers in New York.

PubMed

Sorensen, J A; May, J J; Paap, K; Purschwitz, M A; Emmelin, M

2008-01-01

Tractor rollovers continue to be one of the most frequent causes of agricultural fatalities. Despite knowledge of rollovers and the efficacy of rollover protective structures (ROPS), few New York farmers have considered installing ROPS on their unprotected tractors. Qualitative interviews conducted with an "at-risk" segment of the New York farming community indicate that there are a number of barriers to safety in general and to retrofitting, in particular. The following themes and categories emerged in relation to safety and risk taking: constant exposures to risk with positive outcomes normalizes risk; the modeling of risk by significant others positions risk as part of a farming identity; and the pressure to reduce costs, save time, and accept risk frames risk-taking as the cost-effective option (especially in regard to retrofitting, which farmers believe is both expensive and time-consuming). Recommendations for researchers planning retrofitting interventions would be to focus safety messages on the risk to significant others or on the financial impact of rollovers, and to provide financial incentives and assistance to farmers considering retrofitting.

Prescribing potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) in Germany's elderly as indicated by the PRISCUS list. An analysis based on regional claims data.

PubMed

Schubert, Ingrid; Küpper-Nybelen, Jutta; Ihle, Peter; Thürmann, Petra

2013-07-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) in the elderly as indicated by Germany's recently published list (PRISCUS) and to assess factors independently associated with PIM prescribing, both overall and separately for therapeutic groups. Claims data analysis (Health Insurance Sample AOK Hesse/KV Hesse, 18.75% random sample of insurants from AOK Hesse, Germany) is used in the study. The study population is composed of 73,665 insurants >64 years of age continuously insured in the last quarter of 2009 and either continuously insured or deceased in 2010. Prevalence estimates are standardized to the population of Germany (31 December 2010). The variables age, sex, polypharmacy, hospital stay and nursing care are assessed for their independent association with general PIM prescription and among 11 therapeutic subgroups using multivariate logistic regression analysis. In 2010, 22.0% of the elderly received at least one PIM prescription (men: 18.3%, women: 24.8%). The highest PIM prevalence was observed for antidepressants (6.5%), antihypertensives (3.8%) and antiarrhythmic drugs (3.5%). Amitriptyline, tetrazepam, doxepin, acetyldigoxin, doxazosin and etoricoxib were the most frequently prescribed PIMs. Multivariate analyses indicate that women (OR 1.39; 95% CI: 1.34-1.44) and persons with extreme polypharmacy (≥10 vs. <5 drugs: OR 5.16; 95% CI: 4.87-5.47) were at higher risk for receiving a PRISCUS-PIM. Risk analysis for therapeutic groups shows divergent associations. PRISCUS-PIMs are widely used. Educational programs should focus on drugs with high treatment prevalence and call professionals' attention to those elderly patients who are at special risk for inappropriate medication. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends in the knowledge, attitudes and practices of travel risk groups towards prevention of malaria: results from the Dutch Schiphol Airport Survey 2002 to 2009

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Previous studies investigating the travellers’ knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) profile indicated an important educational need among those travelling to risk destinations. Initiatives to improve such education should target all groups of travellers, including business travellers, those visiting friends and relatives (VFRs), and elderly travellers. Methods In the years 2002 to 2009, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted at the Dutch Schiphol Airport with the aim to study trends in KAP of travel risk groups towards prevention of malaria. The risk groups last-minute travellers, solo-travellers, business travellers, VFRs and elderly travellers were specifically studied. Results A total of 3,045 respondents were included in the survey. Travellers to destinations with a high risk for malaria had significantly more accurate risk perceptions (knowledge) than travellers to low-risk destinations. The relative risk for malaria in travellers to high-risk destinations was probably mitigated by higher protection rates against malaria as compared with travellers to low risk destinations. There were no significant differences in intended risk-taking behaviour. Trend analyses showed a significant change over time in attitude towards more risk-avoiding behaviour and towards higher protection rates against malaria in travellers to high-risk destinations. The KAP profile of last-minute travellers substantially increased their relative risk for malaria, which contrasts to the slight increase in relative risk of solo travellers, business travellers and VFRs for malaria. Conclusions The results of this sequential cohort survey in Dutch travellers suggest an annual 1.8% increase in protection rates against malaria coinciding with an annual 2.5% decrease in intended risk-seeking behaviour. This improvement may reflect the continuous efforts of travel health advice providers to create awareness and to propagate safe and healthy travel. The KAP profile of last-minute travellers, in particular, substantially increased their relative risk for malaria, underlining the continuous need for personal protective measures and malaria chemoprophylaxis for this risk group. PMID:22642661

E057: Renal Stone Risk Assessment During Space Flight: Assessment and Countermeasure Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitson, Peggy A.; Pietrzyk, Robert A.; Jones, Jeffrey A.; Sams, Clarence F.

2001-01-01

Exposure to the microgravity environment results in many metabolic and physiological changes to humans. Body fluid volumes, electrolyte levels, and bone and muscle undergo changes as the human body adapts to the weightless environment. Changes in the urinary biochemistry occur as early as flight day 3-4 in the short duration Shuttle crewmembers. Significant decreases were observed both in fluid intake and urinary output. Other significant changes were observed in the urinary pH, calcium, potassium and uric acid levels. During Shuttle missions, the risk of calcium oxalate stone formation increased early in the flight, continued at elevated levels throughout the flight and remained in the increased risk range on landing day. The calcium phosphate risk was significantly increased early in-flight and remained significantly elevated throughout the remainder of the mission. Results from the long duration Shuttle-Mir missions followed a similar trend. Most long duration crewmembers demonstrated increased urinary calcium levels despite lower dietary calcium intake. Fluid intake and urine volumes were significantly lower during the flight than during the preflight. The calcium oxalate risk was increased relative to the preflight levels during the early in-flight period and continued in the elevated risk range for the remainder of the space flight and through two weeks postflight. Calcium phosphate risk for these long duration crewmembers increased during flight and remained in the increased risk range throughout the flight and following landing. The complexity, expense and visibility of the human space program require that every effort be made to protect the health of the crewmembers and ensure the success of the mission. Results from our early investigations clearly indicate that exposure to the microgravity environment of space significantly increases the risk of renal stone formation. The early studies have indicated specific avenues for development of countermeasures for the increased renal stone risk observed during and following space flight. Increased hydration and implementation of pharmacological countermeasures are being tested for their efficacy in mitigating the in-flight risk of renal stones. Maintaining the health and well-being of crewmembers during space flight requires a means of minimizing potential detrimental health effects of microgravity. The formation of a renal stone during flight obviously has severe consequences for the affected crewmember as well as the success of the mission.

A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila

2006-01-01

In this paper, an approach for the identification, assessment, mitigation and continuous management of risks during the process of designing a space mission is presented. This approach has been developed by observing the risk patterns that occur at the Project Design Center of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX) which develops conceptual, concurrent design of Space Missions. TeamX develops an end-to-end conceptual design of a Space Mission in a matter of one or two weeks. As the risk chair in TeamX, the author has had the opportunity to observe the risk patterns that occur during design over the course of many design sessions. This paper introduces an abstraction and generalization of those patterns. Risk is defined as anything that can go wrong, along with its approximate likelihood and consequence. The indicators, and causes, and effects of these risks are cross cutting across the multiple levels of people and processes involved in the design, and the actual design product itself.

Behavioural risk factors for HIV/AIDS in a low-HIV prevalence Muslim nation: Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Gibney, L; Choudhury, P; Khawaja, Z; Sarker, M; Vermund, SH

2008-01-01

Summary A review of published and unpublished data indicates the prevalence of high-risk behaviours for HIV transmission in segments of the Bangladeshi population. These include casual unprotected sex, heterosexual as well as between males, prior to and after marriage. Intravenous drug use (IVDU) exists though illicit drugs are more commonly inhaled. There is a fear, however, that inhalers may turn to injecting drugs, as is common in neighbouring countries. The lack of public awareness of HIV/AIDS, and misconceptions about the disease, may contribute to continued high-risk behaviours by segments of the population and, thus, to the spread of HIV. Bangladesh’s proximity to India and Myanmar (countries with high HIV endemicity and a rapidly growing number of cases) increases fears of an epidemic in Bangladesh. This proximity will only be a risk factor, however, if high-risk contacts occur between nationals of these countries. PMID:10340200

Frequency and risk indicators of tooth decay among pregnant women in France: a cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Vergnes, Jean-Noel; Kaminski, Monique; Lelong, Nathalie; Musset, Anne-Marie; Sixou, Michel; Nabet, Cathy

2012-01-01

Little is known on the prevalence of tooth decay among pregnant women. Better knowledge of tooth decay risk indicators during pregnancy could help to develop follow-up protocols for women at risk, along with better prevention strategies. The aim of this study was to assess the frequency of tooth decay and the number of decayed teeth per woman in a large sample of pregnant women in France, and to study associated risk indicators. A secondary cross-sectional analysis of data from a French multicentre case-control study was performed. The sample was composed of 1094 at-term women of six maternity units. A dental examination was carried out within 2 to 4 days post-partum. Socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics were obtained through a standardised interview with the women. Medical characteristics were obtained from the women's medical records. Risk indicators associated with tooth decay were identified using a negative binomial hurdle model. 51.6% of the women had tooth decay. The mean number of decayed teeth among women having at least one was 3.1 (s.d. = 2.8). Having tooth decay was statistically associated with lower age (aOR = 1.58, 95%CI [1.03,2.45]), lower educational level (aOR = 1.53, 95%CI [1.06,2.23]) and dental plaque (aOR = 1.75, 95%CI [1.27,2.41]). The number of decayed teeth was associated with the same risk indicators and with non-French nationality and inadequate prenatal care. The frequency of tooth decay and the number of decayed teeth among pregnant women were high. Oral health promotion programmes must continue to inform women and care providers about the importance of dental care before, during and after pregnancy. Future research should also assess the effectiveness of public policies related to oral health in target populations of pregnant women facing challenging social or economic situations.

Bioactive contaminants of emerging concern in National Park waters of the northern Colorado Plateau, USA.

PubMed

Weissinger, Rebecca H; Blackwell, Brett R; Keteles, Kristen; Battaglin, William A; Bradley, Paul M

2018-05-02

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), wastewater indicators (WWIs), and pesticides (herein, Contaminants of Emerging Concern [CECs]) have been documented in surface waters throughout the world and have associated risks to aquatic life. While much research has focused on temperate and urbanized watersheds, less is known about CEC presence in semi-arid landscapes, where water availability is limited and populations are low. CEC presence in water and sediment is reported for 21 sites in eight U.S. national parks in the northern Colorado Plateau region. From 2012 to 2016, at least one PPCP and/or WWI was detected at most sites on over half of sampling visits, indicating that CECs are not uncommon even in isolated areas. CEC detections were generally fewer and at lower concentrations than in urbanized or agricultural watersheds. Consistent with studies from other U.S. regions, the most frequently detected CECs in this study include DEET, caffeine, organophosphorus flame retardants, and bisphenol A in water and fecal indicators and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediment. Maximum concentrations in this study were generally below available water quality benchmarks, sediment quality guidelines, and risk assessment thresholds associated with vertebrates. Additional work is needed to assess the potential activity of hormones, which had high reporting limits in our study, and potential bioactivity of environmental concentrations for invertebrates, microbial communities, and algae. Potential sources of CEC contamination include upstream wastewater effluent discharges and National Park Service invasive-plant-control herbicide applications. CEC occurrence patterns and similarities between continuous and isolated flow locations suggest that direct contamination from individual visitors may also occur. While our data indicate there is little aquatic health risk associated with CECs at our sites, our results demonstrate the ubiquity of CECs on the landscape and a continued need for public outreach concerning resource-use ethics and the potential effects of upstream development. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The use of proton pump inhibitors in an Italian hospital: focus on oncologic and critical non-ICU patients.

PubMed

Meli, Maria; Raffa, Maria Pia; Malta, Renato; Morreale, Ilaria; Aprea, Luigi; D'Alessandro, Natale

2015-12-01

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are among the most misused drugs both at the community and hospital level. Recently, possible risks have been underscored, suggesting the importance of limiting PPI use to proven indications. To survey the appropriateness of PPI use in a University hospital in Italy. Setting Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Policlinico 'P. Giaccone', in Palermo, Italy. A one day-observational study, reviewing patients' medical records to identify treatments with PPIs and the indications for their use. After discharge, a subgroup of the cohort was followed up to assess the continuation of therapy at home. Appropriateness was evaluated according to the indications stated in the official product information sheet and supported by the AIFA notes. Prevalence and appropriateness of PPI use in the hospital and after discharge. In the index day 62.9 % of 343 evaluable patients received a PPI. In only 29.1 % of these, the treatment could be considered appropriate. The most frequent reasons for inappropriate treatment were stress ulcer prophylaxis in low risk patients and unwarranted gastro-protection in drug treated patients. 30.9 % of patients received PPIs for uncertain indications: of these, 25.7 % were "critical" patients admitted in non-ICU wards. Furthermore, as much as 88.2 % of anticancer drug treated patients received PPIs as gastroprotective agents. At discharge 48.6 % of patients received a prescription to continue PPI therapy at home and 75.9 % of the 83 followed up patients were found to be still taking these drugs after on average 3 months from discharge. This study confirms a high proportion of inappropriate PPI therapy into the hospital that translates in a prolonged unnecessary administration in the community setting. Further studies are needed to assess the cost-effectiveness of PPI therapy in subgroups of patients at moderate risk for gastric complications to optimize current guidelines.

Bioactive contaminants of emerging concern in National Park waters of the northern Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weissinger, Rebecca H; Blackwell, Brett R.; Keteles, Kristen; Battaglin, William A.; Bradley, Paul M.

2018-01-01

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), wastewater indicators (WWIs), and pesticides (herein, Contaminants of Emerging Concern [CECs]) have been documented in surface waters throughout the world and have associated risks to aquatic life. While much research has focused on temperate and urbanized watersheds, less is known about CEC presence in semi-arid landscapes, where water availability is limited and populations are low. CEC presence in water and sediment is reported for 21 sites in eight U.S. national parks in the northern Colorado Plateau region. From 2012 to 2016, at least one PPCP and/or WWI was detected at most sites on over half of sampling visits, indicating that CECs are not uncommon even in isolated areas. CEC detections were generally fewer and at lower concentrations than in urbanized or agricultural watersheds. Consistent with studies from other U.S. regions, the most frequently detected CECs in this study include DEET, caffeine, organophosphorus flame retardants, and bisphenol A in water and fecal indicators and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediment. Maximum concentrations in this study were generally below available water quality benchmarks, sediment quality guidelines, and risk assessment thresholds associated with vertebrates. Additional work is needed to assess the potential activity of hormones, which had high reporting limits in our study, and potential bioactivity of environmental concentrations for invertebrates, microbial communities, and algae. Potential sources of CEC contamination include upstream wastewater effluent discharges and National Park Service invasive-plant-control herbicide applications. CEC occurrence patterns and similarities between continuous and isolated flow locations suggest that direct contamination from individual visitors may also occur. While our data indicate there is little aquatic health risk associated with CECs at our sites, our results demonstrate the ubiquity of CECs on the landscape and a continued need for public outreach concerning resource-use ethics and the potential effects of upstream development.

Impact of a risk management plan on Legionella contamination of dental unit water.

PubMed

Leoni, Erica; Dallolio, Laura; Stagni, Francesca; Sanna, Tiziana; D'Alessandro, Giovanni; Piana, Gabriela

2015-02-23

The study aimed to assess the prevalence of Legionella spp. in dental unit waterlines of a dental clinic and to verify whether the microbiological parameters used as indicators of water quality were correlated with Legionella contamination. A risk management plan was subsequently implemented in the dental health care setting, in order to verify whether the adopted disinfection protocols were effective in preventing Legionella colonization. The water delivered from syringes and turbines of 63 dental units operating in a dental clinic, was monitored for counts of the heterotrophic bacteria P. aeruginosa and Legionella spp. (22 °C and 37 °C). At baseline, output water from dental units continuously treated with disinfection products was more compliant with the recommended standards than untreated and periodically treated water. However, continuous disinfection was still not able to prevent contamination by Legionella and P. aeruginosa. Legionella was isolated from 36.4%, 24.3% and 53.3% of samples from untreated, periodically and continuously treated waterlines, respectively. The standard microbiological parameters used as indicators of water quality proved to be unreliable as predictors of the presence of Legionella, whose source was identified as the tap water used to supply the dental units. The adoption of control measures, including the use of deionized water in supplying the dental unit waterlines and the application of a combined protocol of continuous and periodic disinfection, with different active products for the different devices, resulted in good control of Legionella contamination. The efficacy of the measures adopted was mainly linked to the strict adherence to the planned protocols, which placed particular stress on staff training and ongoing environmental monitoring.

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

A Metaanalysis of Perceptual Organization in Schizophrenia, Schizotypy, and Other High-Risk Groups Based on Variants of the Embedded Figures Task

PubMed Central

Panton, Kirsten R.; Badcock, David R.; Badcock, Johanna C.

2016-01-01

Current research on perceptual organization in schizophrenia frequently employs shapes with regularly sampled contours (fragmented stimuli), in noise fields composed of similar elements, to elicit visual abnormalities. However, perceptual organization is multi-factorial and, in earlier studies, continuous contours have also been employed in tasks assessing the ability to extract shapes from a background. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies using closed-contour stimuli, including the Embedded Figures Test (EFT) and related tasks, both in people with schizophrenia and in healthy schizotypes and relatives, considered at increased risk for psychosis. Eleven studies met the selection criteria for inclusion in the meta-analysis, including six that used a between-groups study design (i.e., perceptual organization abilities of schizophrenia/high-risk groups were compared to healthy or clinical controls), and five that treated schizophrenia symptoms or schizotypy traits and indices of perceptual organization as continuous variables. Effect sizes and heterogeneity statistics were calculated, and the risk of publication bias was explored. A significant, moderate effect for EFT performance was found with studies that compared performance of schizophrenia/high-risk groups to a healthy or patient comparison group (d = −0.523, p < 0.001). However, significant heterogeneity was also found amongst the schizotypy, but not schizophrenia studies, as well as studies using accuracy, but not reaction time as a measure of performance. A non-significant correlation was found for the studies that examined schizophrenia symptoms or schizotypy traits as continuous variables (r = 0.012, p = 0.825). These results suggest that deficits in perceptual organization of non-fragmented stimuli are found when differences between schizophrenia/high-risk groups and comparison groups are maximized. These findings should motivate further investigation of perceptual organization abilities with closed-contour stimuli both in schizophrenia and high-risk groups, which is pertinent to current initiatives to improve the assessment and treatment of cognition in schizophrenia. PMID:26941688

A Metaanalysis of Perceptual Organization in Schizophrenia, Schizotypy, and Other High-Risk Groups Based on Variants of the Embedded Figures Task.

PubMed

Panton, Kirsten R; Badcock, David R; Badcock, Johanna C

2016-01-01

Current research on perceptual organization in schizophrenia frequently employs shapes with regularly sampled contours (fragmented stimuli), in noise fields composed of similar elements, to elicit visual abnormalities. However, perceptual organization is multi-factorial and, in earlier studies, continuous contours have also been employed in tasks assessing the ability to extract shapes from a background. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies using closed-contour stimuli, including the Embedded Figures Test (EFT) and related tasks, both in people with schizophrenia and in healthy schizotypes and relatives, considered at increased risk for psychosis. Eleven studies met the selection criteria for inclusion in the meta-analysis, including six that used a between-groups study design (i.e., perceptual organization abilities of schizophrenia/high-risk groups were compared to healthy or clinical controls), and five that treated schizophrenia symptoms or schizotypy traits and indices of perceptual organization as continuous variables. Effect sizes and heterogeneity statistics were calculated, and the risk of publication bias was explored. A significant, moderate effect for EFT performance was found with studies that compared performance of schizophrenia/high-risk groups to a healthy or patient comparison group (d = -0.523, p < 0.001). However, significant heterogeneity was also found amongst the schizotypy, but not schizophrenia studies, as well as studies using accuracy, but not reaction time as a measure of performance. A non-significant correlation was found for the studies that examined schizophrenia symptoms or schizotypy traits as continuous variables (r = 0.012, p = 0.825). These results suggest that deficits in perceptual organization of non-fragmented stimuli are found when differences between schizophrenia/high-risk groups and comparison groups are maximized. These findings should motivate further investigation of perceptual organization abilities with closed-contour stimuli both in schizophrenia and high-risk groups, which is pertinent to current initiatives to improve the assessment and treatment of cognition in schizophrenia.

ADHD, depression, and motor vehicle crashes: A prospective cohort study of continuously-monitored, real-world driving.

PubMed

Aduen, Paula A; Kofler, Michael J; Sarver, Dustin E; Wells, Erica L; Soto, Elia F; Cox, Daniel J

2018-06-01

ADHD is associated with automobile crashes, traffic fatalities, and serious road trauma, but it is unclear whether this risk is (a) driven by ADHD symptoms specifically, and (b) unique to ADHD or transdiagnostic across psychiatric disabilities, such as depression, that also have concentration problems as core symptoms. The current study provides the first prospective, continuously-monitored evaluation of crash risk related to ADHD symptoms, including the first on-road comparison of ADHD with another high-prevalence psychiatric disability (depression). A probability-based sample of 3226 drivers from six U.S. sites, including subsamples with self-reported ADHD (n = 274) and depression (n = 251), consented to have their vehicles outfitted with sophisticated data acquisition technologies to continuously monitor real-world, day-to-day driving from 'engine-on to engine-off' for 1-2 years (Mean = 440 consecutive days/driver, Mean = 9528 miles/driver). Crashes and near-crashes were objectively identified via software-based algorithms and double-coded manual validation (blinded to clinical status). Miles driven, days monitored, age, gender, education, and marital status were controlled. ADHD symptoms portended 5% increased crash risk per increase in symptom severity score (IRR = 1.05). This risk corresponded to approximately 1 biennial crash and 1 annual near-crash per driver with ADHD; crash risk doubled for drivers reporting ADHD symptom severity near the sample's maximum. Analyses based on self-reported clinical status indicated similarly elevated rates for ADHD (IRR = 1.46) and depression (IRR = 1.34) that may be related, in part, to both groups' inattention/concentration symptoms. Risk was not attenuated by ADHD usual treatment, but varied according to antidepressant medication status. Previous studies have significantly underestimated the risk for traffic crashes conveyed by ADHD and depression. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing the main hypotheses of the interpersonal-psychological theory of suicidal behavior in a large diverse sample of United States military personnel.

PubMed

Anestis, Michael D; Khazem, Lauren R; Mohn, Richard S; Green, Bradley A

2015-07-01

Preliminary data indicate the suicide rate in the United States military decreased in 2013, but the National Guard saw a continued increase. We examined the utility of the interpersonal-psychological theory of suicidal behavior (IPTS) in a sample of US military personnel drawn largely from the National Guard (n=934; 77.7% male; 59.5% white). Results indicated the interaction of thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness predicted suicidal ideation and resolved plans and preparations for suicide. In each case, risk was greatest at higher levels of both predictors. Furthermore, results indicated the interaction of thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, and acquired capability for suicide predicted prior suicide attempts. In this interaction term, the relationship between suicidal desire (thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness) and suicide attempts was significant and positive only at high levels of acquired capability. All analyses were cross-sectional. Results indicate the IPTS may be useful for conceptualizing suicide risk in the National Guard. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term prognosis in patients continuing taking antithrombotics after peptic ulcer bleeding

PubMed Central

Wang, Xi-Xu; Dong, Bo; Hong, Biao; Gong, Yi-Qun; Wang, Wei; Wang, Jue; Zhou, Zhen-Yu; Jiang, Wei-Jun

2017-01-01

AIM To investigate the long-term prognosis in peptic ulcer patients continuing taking antithrombotics after ulcer bleeding, and to determine the risk factors that influence the prognosis. METHODS All clinical data of peptic ulcer patients treated from January 1, 2009 to January 1, 2014 were retrospectively collected and analyzed. Patients were divided into either a continuing group to continue taking antithrombotic drugs after ulcer bleeding or a discontinuing group to discontinue antithrombotic drugs. The primary outcome of follow-up in peptic ulcer bleeding patients was recurrent bleeding, and secondary outcome was death or acute cardiovascular disease occurrence. The final date of follow-up was December 31, 2014. Basic demographic data, complications, and disease classifications were analyzed and compared by t- or χ2-test. The number of patients that achieved various outcomes was counted and analyzed statistically. A survival curve was drawn using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the difference was compared using the log-rank test. COX regression multivariate analysis was applied to analyze risk factors for the prognosis of peptic ulcer patients. RESULTS A total of 167 patients were enrolled into this study. As for the baseline information, differences in age, smoking, alcohol abuse, and acute cardiovascular diseases were statistically significant between the continuing and discontinuing groups (70.8 ± 11.4 vs 62.4 ± 12.0, P < 0.001; 8 (8.2%) vs 15 (21.7%), P < 0.05; 65 (66.3%) vs 13 (18.8%), P < 0.001). At the end of the study, 18 patients had recurrent bleeding and three patients died or had acute cardiovascular disease in the continuing group, while four patients had recurrent bleeding and 15 patients died or had acute cardiovascular disease in the discontinuing group. The differences in these results were statistically significant (P = 0.022, P = 0.000). The Kaplan-Meier survival curve indicated that the incidence of recurrent bleeding was higher in patients in the continuing group, and the risk of death and developing acute cardiovascular disease was higher in patients in the discontinuing group (log-rank test, P = 0.000 for both). Furthermore, COX regression multivariate analysis revealed that the hazard ratio (HR) for recurrent bleeding was 2.986 (95%CI: 067-8.356, P = 0.015) in the continuing group, while HR for death or acute cardiovascular disease was 5.216 (95%CI: 1.035-26.278, P = 0.028). CONCLUSION After the occurrence of peptic ulcer bleeding, continuing antithrombotics increases the risk of recurrent bleeding events, while discontinuing antithrombotics would increase the risk of death and developing cardiovascular disease. This suggests that clinicians should comprehensively consider the use of antithrombotics after peptic ulcer bleeding. PMID:28216980

Long-term prognosis in patients continuing taking antithrombotics after peptic ulcer bleeding.

PubMed

Wang, Xi-Xu; Dong, Bo; Hong, Biao; Gong, Yi-Qun; Wang, Wei; Wang, Jue; Zhou, Zhen-Yu; Jiang, Wei-Jun

2017-01-28

To investigate the long-term prognosis in peptic ulcer patients continuing taking antithrombotics after ulcer bleeding, and to determine the risk factors that influence the prognosis. All clinical data of peptic ulcer patients treated from January 1, 2009 to January 1, 2014 were retrospectively collected and analyzed. Patients were divided into either a continuing group to continue taking antithrombotic drugs after ulcer bleeding or a discontinuing group to discontinue antithrombotic drugs. The primary outcome of follow-up in peptic ulcer bleeding patients was recurrent bleeding, and secondary outcome was death or acute cardiovascular disease occurrence. The final date of follow-up was December 31, 2014. Basic demographic data, complications, and disease classifications were analyzed and compared by t - or χ 2 -test. The number of patients that achieved various outcomes was counted and analyzed statistically. A survival curve was drawn using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the difference was compared using the log-rank test. COX regression multivariate analysis was applied to analyze risk factors for the prognosis of peptic ulcer patients. A total of 167 patients were enrolled into this study. As for the baseline information, differences in age, smoking, alcohol abuse, and acute cardiovascular diseases were statistically significant between the continuing and discontinuing groups (70.8 ± 11.4 vs 62.4 ± 12.0, P < 0.001; 8 (8.2%) vs 15 (21.7%), P < 0.05; 65 (66.3%) vs 13 (18.8%), P < 0.001). At the end of the study, 18 patients had recurrent bleeding and three patients died or had acute cardiovascular disease in the continuing group, while four patients had recurrent bleeding and 15 patients died or had acute cardiovascular disease in the discontinuing group. The differences in these results were statistically significant ( P = 0.022, P = 0.000). The Kaplan-Meier survival curve indicated that the incidence of recurrent bleeding was higher in patients in the continuing group, and the risk of death and developing acute cardiovascular disease was higher in patients in the discontinuing group (log-rank test, P = 0.000 for both). Furthermore, COX regression multivariate analysis revealed that the hazard ratio (HR) for recurrent bleeding was 2.986 (95%CI: 067-8.356, P = 0.015) in the continuing group, while HR for death or acute cardiovascular disease was 5.216 (95%CI: 1.035-26.278, P = 0.028). After the occurrence of peptic ulcer bleeding, continuing antithrombotics increases the risk of recurrent bleeding events, while discontinuing antithrombotics would increase the risk of death and developing cardiovascular disease. This suggests that clinicians should comprehensively consider the use of antithrombotics after peptic ulcer bleeding.

Observed changes in cardiovascular risk factors among high-risk middle-aged men who received lifestyle counselling: a 5-year follow-up.

PubMed

Siren, Reijo; Eriksson, Johan G; Vanhanen, Hannu

2016-12-01

To examine the long-term impact of health counselling among middle-aged men at high risk of CVD. An observational study with a 5-year follow-up. All men aged 40 years in Helsinki have been invited to a visit to evaluate CVD risk from 2006 onwards. A modified version of the North Karelia project risk tool (CVD risk score) served to assess the risk. High-risk men received lifestyle counselling based on their individual risk profile in 2006 and were invited to a follow-up visit in 2011. Of the 389 originally high-risk men, 159 participated in the follow-up visits in 2011. Based on their follow-up in relation the further risk communication, we divided the participants into three groups: primary health care, occupational health care and no control visits. Lifestyle and CVD risk score change. All groups showed improvements in lifestyles. The CVD risk score decreased the most in the group that continued the risk communication visits in their primary health care centre (6.1 to 4.8 [95% CI -1.6 to -0.6]) compared to those who continued risk communication visits in their occupational health care (6.0 to 5.4 [95% CI -1.3 to 0.3]), and to those with no risk communication visits (6.0 to 5.9 [95% CI -0.5 to 0.4]). These findings indicate that individualized lifestyle counselling improves health behaviour and reduces total CVD risk among middle-aged men at high risk of CVD. Sustained improvement in risk factor status requires ongoing risk communication with health care providers. KEY POINTS Studies of short duration have shown that lifestyle changes reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease among high-risk individuals. Sustaining these lifestyle changes and maintaining the lower disease risk attained can prove challenging. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and individualized health counselling for high-risk men, when implemented in primary health care, have the potential to initiate lifestyle changes that support risk reduction. Attaining a sustainable reduction in CVD risk requires a willingness to engage in risk-related communication from both health care providers and the individual at high risk.

Analysis of general aviation accidents during operations under instrument flight rules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bennett, C. T.; Schwirzke, Martin; Harm, C.

1990-01-01

A report is presented to describe some of the errors that pilots make during flight under IFR. The data indicate that there is less risk during the approach and landing phase of IFR flights, as compared to VFR operations. Single-pilot IFR accident rates continue to be higher than two-pilot IFR incident rates, reflecting the high work load of IFR operations.

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: an exploration of the meanings embodied in America's last great wilderness

Treesearch

Roger W. Kaye

2000-01-01

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge has been the subject of more than 50 major studies investigating the bio-physical resources potentially threatened by oil development. This continuing project investigates the more elusive qualities at risk: the set of meanings this place holds for those who value it as wilderness. Findings indicate that these meanings may also be...

Continuous Activity Monitoring During Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ohri, Nitin, E-mail: ohri.nitin@gmail.com; Kabarriti, Rafi; Bodner, William R.

Purpose: To perform a prospective trial testing the feasibility and utility of acquiring activity data as a measure of health status during concurrent chemoradiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Ambulatory patients who were planned for treatment with concurrent chemoradiotherapy with curative intent for cancers of the head and neck, lung, or gastrointestinal tract were provided with activity monitors before treatment initiation. Patients were asked to wear the devices continuously throughout the radiation therapy course. Step count data were downloaded weekly during radiation therapy and 2 and 4 weeks after radiation therapy completion. The primary objective was to demonstrate feasibility, defined as collection ofmore » step counts for 80% of the days during study subjects' radiation therapy courses. Secondary objectives included establishing step count as a dynamic predictor of unplanned hospitalization risk. Results: Thirty-eight enrolled patients were treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy. Primary diagnoses included head and neck cancer (n=11), lung cancer (n=13), and a variety of gastrointestinal cancers (n=14). Step data were collected for 1524 of 1613 days (94%) during patients' radiation therapy courses. Fourteen patients were hospitalized during radiation therapy or within 4 weeks of radiation therapy completion. Cox regression modeling demonstrated a significant association between recent step counts (3-day average) and hospitalization risk, with a 38% reduction in the risk of hospitalization for every 1000 steps taken each day (hazard ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.83, P=.002). Inferior quality of life scores and impaired performance status were not associated with increased hospitalization risk. Conclusion: Continuous activity monitoring during concurrent chemoradiotherapy is feasible and well-tolerated. Step counts may serve as powerful, objective, and dynamic indicators of hospitalization risk.« less

Continuing or Temporarily Stopping Prestroke Antihypertensive Medication in Acute Stroke: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Woodhouse, Lisa J; Manning, Lisa; Potter, John F; Berge, Eivind; Sprigg, Nikola; Wardlaw, Joanna; Lees, Kennedy R; Bath, Philip M; Robinson, Thompson G

2017-05-01

Over 50% of patients are already taking blood pressure-lowering therapy on hospital admission for acute stroke. An individual patient data meta-analysis from randomized controlled trials was undertaken to determine the effect of continuation versus temporarily stopping preexisting antihypertensive medication in acute stroke. Key databases were searched for trials against the following inclusion criteria: randomized design; stroke onset ≤48 hours; investigating the effect of continuation versus stopping prestroke antihypertensive medication; and follow-up of ≥2 weeks. Two randomized controlled trials were identified and included in this meta-analysis of individual patient data from 2860 patients with ≤48 hours of acute stroke. Risk of bias in each study was low. In adjusted logistic regression and multiple regression analyses (using random effects), we found no significant association between continuation of prestroke antihypertensive therapy (versus stopping) and risk of death or dependency at final follow-up: odds ratio 0.96 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.14). No significant associations were found between continuation (versus stopping) of therapy and secondary outcomes at final follow-up. Analyses for death and dependency in prespecified subgroups revealed no significant associations with continuation versus temporarily stopping therapy, with the exception of patients randomized ≤12 hours, in whom a difference favoring stopping treatment met statistical significance. We found no significant benefit with continuation of antihypertensive treatment in the acute stroke period. Therefore, there is no urgency to administer preexisting antihypertensive therapy in the first few hours or days after stroke, unless indicated for other comorbid conditions. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Long-term supplementation of decaffeinated green tea extract does not modify body weight or abdominal obesity in a randomized trial of men at high risk for prostate cancer

PubMed Central

Kumar, Nagi B.; Patel, Roshni; Pow-Sang, Julio; Spiess, Philippe E.; Salup, Raoul; Williams, Christopher R.; Schell, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Background Evidence continues to demonstrate the role of obesity in prostate carcinogenesis and prognosis, underscoring the need to identify and continue to evaluate the effective interventions to reduce obesity in populations at high risk. The aim of the study was to determine the effect of daily consumption of decaffeinated green tea catechins (GTC) formulation (Polyphenon E® (PolyE)) for 1 year on biomarkers of obesity in men who are at high risk for prostate cancer. Materials and Methods A randomized, double-blinded trial was conducted targeting 97 men diagnosed with HGPIN or ASAP. Subjects were randomized to receive GTC (PolyE) (n = 49) or placebo (n = 48) for 1 year. Anthropometric data were collected at baseline, 6 and 12 months and data analyzed to observe change in weight, body mass index (indicator of obesity) and waist: hip ratio (indicator of abdominal obesity). Results Decaffeinated GTC containing 400 mgs of the bioactive catechin, EGCG administered for 1 year to men diagnosed with ASAP and HGPIN appears to be bioavailable, well tolerated but not effective in reducing biomarkers of obesity including body weight, body mass index and waist: hip ratio. Conclusions The results of our trial demonstrates that men who are obese and at high risk for prostate cancer should resort to effective weight management strategies to reduce obesity and not resort to ineffective measures such as taking supplements of green tea to reduce biomarkers of obesity. Changes in body mass index and abdominal obesity seen in other studies were potentially due to caffeine and not GTC. PMID:29228755

Exercise at Different Ages and Appendicular Lean Mass and Strength in Later Life: Results From the Berlin Aging Study II.

PubMed

Eibich, Peter; Buchmann, Nikolaus; Kroh, Martin; Wagner, Gert G; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Demuth, Ilja; Norman, Kristina

2016-04-01

Excessive loss of muscle mass in advanced age is a major risk factor for decreased physical ability and falls. Physical activity and exercise training are typically recommended to maintain muscle mass and prevent weakness. How exercise in different stages of life relates to muscle mass, grip strength, and risk for weakness in later life is not well understood. Baseline data on 891 participants at least 60 years old from the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II) were analyzed. Linear and logistic regressions of self-reported exercise in early adulthood, old age, or both on appendicular lean mass (ALM), grip strength, and a risk indicator for weakness (ALM/ body mass index cutoff) were calculated. In addition, treatment bounds are analyzed to address potential confounding using a method proposed by Oster. Analyses indicate that for men only, continuous exercise is significantly associated with higher muscle mass (SD = 0.24, p < .001), grip strength (SD = 0.18, p < .05), and lower risk for clinically relevant low muscle mass (odds ratio = 0.36, p < .01). Exercise in early adulthood alone is not significantly associated with muscle mass or strength. No significant associations were observed for women. The results of the current study underscore the importance of health programs to promote physical activity with a focus on young adults, a group known to be affected from environmentally associated decline of physical activity, and to promote the continuation of physical exercise from early adulthood into later life in general. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The application of simple metrics in the assessment of glycaemic variability.

PubMed

Monnier, L; Colette, C; Owens, D R

2018-03-06

The assessment of glycaemic variability (GV) remains a subject of debate with many indices proposed to represent either short- (acute glucose fluctuations) or long-term GV (variations of HbA 1c ). For the assessment of short-term within-day GV, the coefficient of variation for glucose (%CV) defined as the standard deviation adjusted on the 24-h mean glucose concentration is easy to perform and with a threshold of 36%, recently adopted by the international consensus on use of continuous glucose monitoring, separating stable from labile glycaemic states. More complex metrics such as the Low Blood Glucose Index (LBGI) or High Blood Glucose Index (HBGI) allow the risk of hypo or hyperglycaemic episodes, respectively to be assessed although in clinical practice its application is limited due to the need for more complex computation. This also applies to other indices of short-term intraday GV including the mean amplitude of glycemic excursions (MAGE), Shlichtkrull's M-value and CONGA. GV is important clinically as exaggerated glucose fluctuations are associated with an enhanced risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes due primarily to hypoglycaemia. In contrast, there is at present no compelling evidence that elevated short-term GV is an independent risk factor of microvascular complications of diabetes. Concerning long-term GV there are numerous studies supporting its association with an enhanced risk of cardiovascular events. However, this association raises the question as to whether the impact of long-term variability is not simply the consequence of repeated exposure to short-term GV or ambient chronic hyperglycaemia. The renewed emphasis on glucose monitoring with the introduction of continuous glucose monitoring technologies can benefit from the introduction and application of simple metrics for describing GV along with supporting recommendations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Evidence Report: Risk of Renal Stone Formation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibonga, Jean D.; Pietrzyk, Robert

2017-01-01

The formation of renal stones poses an in-flight health risk of high severity, not only because of the impact of renal colic on human performance but also because of complications that could potentially lead to crew evacuation, such as hematuria, infection, hydronephrosis, and sepsis. Evidence for risk factors comes from urine analyses of crewmembers, documenting changes to the urinary environment that are conducive to increased saturation of stone-forming salts, which are the driving force for nucleation and growth of a stone nidus. Further, renal stones have been documented in astronauts after return to Earth and in one cosmonaut during flight. Biochemical analysis of urine specimens has provided indication of hypercalciuria and hyperuricemia, reduced urine volumes, and increased urine saturation of calcium oxalate and calcium phosphate. A major contributor to the risk for renal stone formation is bone atrophy with increased turnover of the bone minerals. Dietary and fluid intakes also play major roles in the risk because of the influence on urine pH (more acidic) and on volume (decreased). Historically, specific assessments on urine samples from some Skylab crewmembers indicated that calcium excretion increased early in flight, notable by day 10 of flight, and almost exceeded the upper threshold for normal excretion (300mg/day in males). Other crewmember data documented reduced intake of fluid and reduced intake of potassium, phosphorus, magnesium, and citrate (an inhibitor of calcium stone formation) in the diet. Hence, data from both short-duration and long-duration missions indicate that space travel induces risk factors for renal stone formation that continue to persist after flight; this risk has been documented by reported kidney stones in crewmembers.

Quality Indicators for Continuous Monitoring to Improve Maternal and Infant Health in Maternity Departments: A Modified Delphi Survey of an International Multidisciplinary Panel

PubMed Central

Boulkedid, Rym; Sibony, Olivier; Goffinet, François; Fauconnier, Arnaud; Branger, Bernard; Alberti, Corinne

2013-01-01

Objective Measuring the quality of inpatient obstetrical care using quality indicators is becoming increasingly important for both patients and healthcare providers. However, there is no consensus about which measures are optimal. We describe a modified Delphi method to identify a set of indicators for continuously monitoring the quality of maternity care by healthcare professionals. Methodology and Main Findings An international French-speaking multidisciplinary panel comprising 22 obstetricians-gynaecologists, 12 midwives, and 1 paediatrician assessed potential indicators extracted from a medical literature search, using a two-round Delphi procedure followed by a physical meeting. Each panellist rated each indicator based on validity and feasibility. In the first round, 35 panellists from 5 countries and 20 maternity units evaluated 26 indicators including 15 related to the management of the overall population of pregnant women, 3 to the management of women followed from the first trimester of pregnancy, 2 to the management of low-risk pregnant women, and 6 to the management of neonates. 25 quality indicators were kept for next step. In the second round, 27 (27/35: 77%) panellists selected 17 indicators; the remaining 8 indicators were discussed during a physical meeting. The final set comprised 18 indicators. Conclusion A multidisciplinary panel selected indicators that reflect the quality of obstetrical care. This set of indicators could be used to assess and monitor obstetrical care, with the goal of improving the quality of care in maternity units. PMID:23577143

Coexistence of silver and titanium dioxide nanoparticles: enhancing or reducing environmental risks?

PubMed

Zou, Xiaoyan; Shi, Junpeng; Zhang, Hongwu

2014-09-01

Due to their bactericidal and photocatalytic characteristics, silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs) and titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO2 NPs) are widely used in the fields of environment and physiology. Once these untreated nanoparticles are released into an aquatic environment and encounter one another, there is more uncertainty about their fate and ecotoxicological risks compared with the single nanoparticles. To expand our knowledge of the health and environmental impacts of nanoparticles, we investigated the possible risk of the co-existence of TiO2 NPs and Ag NPs in an aquatic environment using ciliated protozoa (Tetrahymena pyriformis) as an aquatic animal model. In this study, silver ion (Ag(+)) release and physicochemical properties, as well as their effect on oxidative stress biomarkers, were monitored. Continuous illumination (12,000 lx) led to the 20.0% decrease in Ag(+) release in comparison with dark conditions, while TiO2 NPs and continuous illumination resulted in decreasing the Ag(+) concentration to 64.3% in contrast with Ag NPs-only suspensions. Toxicity tests indicated that different illumination modes exerted distinct effects of TiO2 NPs on the toxicity of Ag NPs: no effects, antagonism and synergism in dark, natural light and continuous light, respectively. In the presence of 1.5mg/L (18.8 μM) TiO2 NPs, the toxicity of 1.5 mg/L (13.9 μM) Ag NPs was reduced by 28.7% and increased by 6.93% in natural light and 12,000 lx of continuous light, respectively. After culturing in 12,000 lx continuous light for 24h, SOD activity of the light control surged to 1.96 times compared to the dark control (P<0.001). TiO2 NPs induced a reduction of CAT activity by an average of (36.1±1.7) % in the light. In the natural light reductions in the toxicity of Ag, NPs decrease Ag(+) concentrations via adsorption of Ag(+) onto TiO2 NPs surfaces. The enhancement of Ag NPs toxicity can contribute to the formation of activated TiO2-Ag NPs complexes in continuous light. The existence of TiO2 NPs in various illumination modes changed the surface chemistry of Ag NPs and then led to different toxicity effects. TiO2 NPs reduce the environmental risks of Ag NPs in natural light, but in continuous light, TiO2 NPs enhance the environmental risks of Ag NPs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Women’s Knowledge, Views, and Experiences Regarding Alcohol Use and Pregnancy: Opportunities to Improve Health Messages

PubMed Central

Elek, Elvira; Harris, Shelly L.; Squire, Claudia M.; Margolis, Marjorie; Weber, Mary Kate; Dang, Elizabeth Parra; Mitchell, Betsy

2017-01-01

Background Women continue to drink alcohol during pregnancy despite Surgeon Generals’ Advisory statements and educational efforts about the dangers. Purpose This focus group research study examined women’s knowledge and beliefs about alcohol consumption and its risks during pregnancy along with related perceptions of social influences and information sources in order to inform future messaging. Methods The study included 20 focus groups of 149 reproductive-age women segmented by age, pregnancy status, and race/ethnicity. Results and Discussion Women acknowledged the risks and consequences of drinking alcohol during pregnancy, but many held common misconceptions. Some women continued to drink during pregnancy or expressed intent to continue drinking until pregnancy confirmation. Findings indicated that women’s partners, families, and friends influence women’s decisions to drink or abstain from alcohol. In addition, health care providers and the Internet act as important sources of health information for women but sometimes do not adequately educate them about the risks of alcohol use and pregnancy. Translation to Health Education Practice Considerations for messaging and educational materials related to alcohol use and pregnancy include providing clear and consistent messaging (especially from health professionals), focusing on social support strategies, and utilizing electronic media. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. PMID:28261370

Unmanned aircraft system sense and avoid integrity and continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamoom, Michael B.

This thesis describes new methods to guarantee safety of sense and avoid (SAA) functions for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) by evaluating integrity and continuity risks. Previous SAA efforts focused on relative safety metrics, such as risk ratios, comparing the risk of using an SAA system versus not using it. The methods in this thesis evaluate integrity and continuity risks as absolute measures of safety, as is the established practice in commercial aircraft terminal area navigation applications. The main contribution of this thesis is a derivation of a new method, based on a standard intruder relative constant velocity assumption, that uses hazard state estimates and estimate error covariances to establish (1) the integrity risk of the SAA system not detecting imminent loss of '"well clear," which is the time and distance required to maintain safe separation from intruder aircraft, and (2) the probability of false alert, the continuity risk. Another contribution is applying these integrity and continuity risk evaluation methods to set quantifiable and certifiable safety requirements on sensors. A sensitivity analysis uses this methodology to evaluate the impact of sensor errors on integrity and continuity risks. The penultimate contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation where the estimation model is refined to address realistic intruder relative linear accelerations, which goes beyond the current constant velocity standard. The final contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation addressing multiple intruders. This evaluation is a new innovation-based method to determine the risk of mis-associating intruder measurements. A mis-association occurs when the SAA system incorrectly associates a measurement to the wrong intruder, causing large errors in the estimated intruder trajectories. The new methods described in this thesis can help ensure safe encounters between aircraft and enable SAA sensor certification for UAS integration into the National Airspace System.

ADRB2 and LEPR gene polymorphisms: synergistic effects on the risk of obesity in Japanese.

PubMed

Pereira, Tiago V; Mingroni-Netto, Regina C; Yamada, Yoshiji

2011-07-01

The objective of the present study was to validate a recently reported synergistic effect between variants located in the leptin receptor (LEPR) gene and in the β-2 adrenergic receptor (ADRB2) gene on the risk of overweight/obesity. We studied a middle-aged/elderly sample of 4,193 nondiabetic Japanese subjects stratified according gender (1,911 women and 2,282 men). The LEPR Gln223Arg (rs1137101) variant as well as both ADRB2 Arg16Gly (rs1042713) and Gln27Glu (rs1042714) polymorphisms were analyzed. The primary outcome was the risk of overweight/obesity defined as BMI ≥25 kg/m(2), whereas secondary outcomes included the risk of a BMI ≥27 kg/m(2) and BMI as a continuous variable. None of the studied polymorphisms showed statistically significant individual effects, regardless of the group or phenotype studied. Haplotype analysis also did not disclose any associations of ADRB2 polymorphisms with BMI. However, dimensionality reduction-based models confirmed significant interactions among the investigated variants for BMI as a continuous variable as well as for the risk of obesity defined as BMI ≥27 kg/m(2). All disclosed interactions were found in men only. Our results provide external validation for a male specific ADRB2-LEPR interaction effect on the risk of overweight/obesity, but indicate that effect sizes associated with these interactions may be smaller in the population studied.

Hepatitis C and the correctional population.

PubMed

Reindollar, R W

1999-12-27

The hepatitis C epidemic has extended well into the correctional population where individuals predominantly originate from high-risk environments and have high-risk behaviors. Epidemiologic data estimate that 30% to 40% of the 1.8 million inmates in the United States are infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), the majority of whom were infected before incarceration. As in the general population, injection drug use accounts for the majority of HCV infections in this group--one to two thirds of inmates have a history of injection drug use before incarceration and continue to do so while in prison. Although correctional facilities also represent a high-risk environment for HCV infection because of a continued high incidence of drug use and high-risk sexual activities, available data indicate a low HCV seroconversion rate of 1.1 per 100 person-years in prison. Moreover, a high annual turnover rate means that many inmates return to their previous high-risk environments and behaviors that are conducive either to acquiring or spreading HCV. Despite a very high prevalence of HCV infection within the US correctional system, identification and treatment of at-risk individuals is inconsistent, at best. Variable access to correctional health-care resources, limited funding, high inmate turnover rates, and deficient follow-up care after release represent a few of the factors that confound HCV control and prevention in this group. Future efforts must focus on establishing an accurate knowledge base and implementing education, policies, and procedures for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis C in correctional populations.

Aggression at Age 5 as a Function of Prenatal Exposure to Cocaine, Gender, and Environmental Risk

PubMed Central

Bendersky, Margaret; Bennett, David; Lewis, Michael

2006-01-01

Objective To examine childhood aggression at age 5 in a multiple risk model that includes cocaine exposure, environmental risk, and gender as predictors. Methods Aggression was assessed in 206 children by using multiple methods including teacher report, parent report, child’s response to hypothetical provocations, and child’s observed behavior. Also examined was a composite score that reflected high aggression across contexts. Results Multiple regression analyses indicated that a significant amount of variance in each of the aggression measures and the composite was explained by the predictors. The variables that were independently related differed depending on the outcome. Cocaine exposure, gender, and environmental risk were all related to the composite aggression score. Conclusions Cocaine exposure, being male, and a high-risk environment were all predictive of aggressive behavior at 5 years. It is this group of exposed boys at high environmental risk that is most likely to show continued aggression over time. PMID:15827351

Communicating asset risk: how name recognition and the format of historic volatility information affect risk perception and investment decisions.

PubMed

Weber, Elke U; Siebenmorgen, Niklas; Weber, Martin

2005-06-01

An experiment examined how the type and presentation format of information about investment options affected investors' expectations about asset risk, returns, and volatility and how these expectations related to asset choice. Respondents were provided with the names of 16 domestic and foreign investment options, with 10-year historical return information for these options, or with both. Historical returns were presented either as a bar graph of returns per year or as a continuous density distribution. Provision of asset names allowed for the investigation of the mechanisms underlying the home bias in investment choice and other asset familiarity effects. Respondents provided their expectations of future returns, volatility, and expected risk, and indicated the options they would choose to invest in. Expected returns closely resembled historical expected values. Risk and volatility perceptions both varied significantly as a function of the type and format of information, but in different ways. Expected returns and perceived risk, not predicted volatility, predicted portfolio decisions.

Contemporary indications for transsphenoidal pituitary surgery.

PubMed

Miller, Brandon A; Ioachimescu, Adriana G; Oyesiku, Nelson M

2014-12-01

To analyze current indications for transsphenoidal pituitary surgery. The current literature regarding transsphenoidal surgery for all subtypes of pituitary adenomas and other sellar lesions was examined. Alternate approaches for pituitary surgery were also reviewed. Transsphenoidal surgery continues to be the mainstay of surgical treatment for pituitary tumors, and has good outcomes in experienced hands. Pre- and postoperative management of pituitary tumors remains an important part of the treatment of patients with pituitary tumors. Even as medical and surgical treatment for pituitary tumors evolves, transsphenoidal surgery remains a mainstay of treatment. Outcomes after transshenoidal surgery have improved over time. Neurosurgeons must be aware of the indications, risks and alternatives to transsphenoidal pituitary surgery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring the association between perceived risks of smoking and benefits to quitting: who does not see the link?

PubMed

Lyna, Pauline; McBride, Colleen; Samsa, Greg; Pollak, Kathryn I

2002-01-01

This report explored associations between different measures of smokers' perceived risks of smoking and benefits to quitting and the extent to which these associations varied by demographic and other characteristics for 144 smokers. We hypothesized greater perceived risk of smoking would be associated with greater perceived benefits to quitting and would be strongest among smokers who were concerned about health effects of smoking and motivated to quit. Results indicated smokers' perceived themselves at risk for lung cancer regardless if they continued or quit smoking and was strongest for smokers who were older and minimized the importance of reducing lung cancer risk. There was a weak correlation between perceived risk for lung cancer when compared to nonsmokers and perception that quitting smoking would reduce lung cancer risk and was weakest for African Americans, lighters smokers, and smokers with higher intrinsic relative to extrinsic motivation for cessation. In conclusion, these subgroup differences in the relationship between perceptions of risks and benefits could be important to consider to increase the relevance and motivational potency of smoking cessation interventions.

Assessing the risks for poliovirus outbreaks in polio-free countries--Africa, 2012-2013.

PubMed

2013-09-20

In 2012, the World Health Assembly of the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the completion of polio eradication a programmatic emergency. Indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission remains uninterrupted in Nigeria (in the WHO African Region [AFR]) and in Afghanistan and Pakistan (in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region [EMR]). In the WHO AFR, multiple WPV outbreaks have occurred since 2003 after importation of indigenous West African WPV into 21 previously polio-free countries in a "WPV importation belt"* that extends across the continent. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) and WHO regional offices have used indicators of population immunity, surveillance quality, and other factors (e.g., high-risk subpopulations and proximity to WPV-affected countries) to assess the risk for outbreaks in polio-free countries and guide the implementation of risk mitigation measures to limit poliovirus transmission after WPV importation and prevent the emergence of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV). Despite risk mitigation efforts, a polio outbreak, first confirmed in May 2013, is ongoing; as of September 10, a total of 178 WPV type 1 (WPV1) cases have been reported in Somalia† (163 cases), Kenya (14 cases) and Ethiopia (1 case), after importation of WPV1 of West African origin. This report summarizes steps taken by the GPEI to assess and mitigate the risks for outbreaks after WPV importation or the emergence of cVDPV in polio-free countries within the WHO AFR's "WPV importation belt." All countries will continue to have some level of risk for WPV outbreaks as long as endemic circulation continues in Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan.

Does corticosterone mediate predator-induced responses of larval Hylarana indica?

PubMed

Joshi, A M; Wadekar, N V; Gramapurohit, N P

2017-09-15

Prey-predator interactions have been studied extensively in terms of morphological and behavioural responses of prey to predation risk using diverse model systems. However, the underlying physiological changes associated with morphological, behavioural or life historical responses have been rarely investigated. Herein, we studied the effect of chronic predation risk on larval growth and metamorphosis of Hylarana indica and the underlying physiological changes in prey tadpoles. In the first experiment, tadpoles were exposed to a caged predator from Gosner stage 25-42 to record growth and metamorphosis. Further, whole body corticosterone (CORT) was measured to determine the physiological changes underlying morphological and life historical responses of these prey tadpoles. Surprisingly, tadpoles experiencing continuous predation risk grew and developed faster and metamorphosed at a larger size. Interestingly, these tadpoles had significantly lower CORT levels. In the second experiment, tadpoles were exposed to predation risk (PR) or PR+CORT from stage 25-42 to determine the role of CORT in mediating predator-induced responses of H. indica. Tadpoles facing continuous predation risk grew and developed faster and metamorphosed at a larger size reinforcing the results of the first experiment. However, when CORT was administered along with predation risk, tadpoles grew and developed slowly leading to delayed metamorphosis. Interestingly, growth and metamorphic traits of tadpoles exposed to PR+CORT were comparable to those of the control group indicating that exogenous CORT nullified the positive effect of predation risk. Apparently, CORT mediates predator-induced morphological responses of H. indica tadpoles by regulating their physiology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Demonstrating and Communicating Research Impact. Preparing NIOSH Programs for External Review

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

and Communicating Research Impact Type Program NIOSH cross-sector (continued) Traumatic Injury Work Organization and Stress-Related Disorders Worklife ...tools, such as italics, bolded text, dashed lines, and colors, can be used to indicate subtle differences. However, finding the balance between the... balancing the potential value and risk of individual programs within a portfolio against an explicitly defined set of goals. There are several methods

Screening and Assessing Mental Health and Substance Use Disorders Among Youth in the Juvenile Justice System. A Resource Guide for Practitioners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grisso, Thomas; Underwood, Lee A.

2004-01-01

Research indicates that many youth who come into contact with the juvenile justice system may have mental health and substance use related disorders. Problems related to these conditions play a continuing role in delinquency and pose risks to the welfare of youth, juvenile justice staff, and others. Identifying troubled youth is the first step in…

[Process management in the hospital pharmacy for the improvement of the patient safety].

PubMed

Govindarajan, R; Perelló-Juncá, A; Parès-Marimòn, R M; Serrais-Benavente, J; Ferrandez-Martí, D; Sala-Robinat, R; Camacho-Calvente, A; Campabanal-Prats, C; Solà-Anderiu, I; Sanchez-Caparrós, S; Gonzalez-Estrada, J; Martinez-Olalla, P; Colomer-Palomo, J; Perez-Mañosas, R; Rodríguez-Gallego, D

2013-01-01

To define a process management model for a hospital pharmacy in order to measure, analyse and make continuous improvements in patient safety and healthcare quality. In order to implement process management, Igualada Hospital was divided into different processes, one of which was the Hospital Pharmacy. A multidisciplinary management team was given responsibility for each process. For each sub-process one person was identified to be responsible, and a working group was formed under his/her leadership. With the help of each working group, a risk analysis using failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) was performed, and the corresponding improvement actions were implemented. Sub-process indicators were also identified, and different process management mechanisms were introduced. The first risk analysis with FMEA produced more than thirty preventive actions to improve patient safety. Later, the weekly analysis of errors, as well as the monthly analysis of key process indicators, permitted us to monitor process results and, as each sub-process manager participated in these meetings, also to assume accountability and responsibility, thus consolidating the culture of excellence. The introduction of different process management mechanisms, with the participation of people responsible for each sub-process, introduces a participative management tool for the continuous improvement of patient safety and healthcare quality. Copyright © 2012 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Fungicidal activities of soil humic/fulvic acids as related to their chemical structures in greenhouse vegetable fields with cultivation chronosequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Meng; Song, Mengya; Liu, Ming; Jiang, Chunyu; Li, Zhongpei

2016-09-01

In the background of rapid expansion of plastic greenhouse vegetable production in China, many environmental risks have emerged in recent years. In this study, the soils with a chronosequence in greenhouse vegetable fields were collected and the soil humic acids (HAs) and fluvic acids (FAs) were extracted and purified. The soil HAs and FAs were found to show inhibition activities against phytopathogenic fungi for the first time. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was performed to investigate the chemical structures of HAs and FAs. The variation of relative peak areas indicated the chemical structure of HAs become more complex and stable under continuous cultivation. The PCA analysis showed HAs and FAs could be distinctly separated from each other and cultivation years mainly determined the variation. Mantel test and RDA analysis indicated the active components (aliphatic peaks for HAs and COOH, OH peaks for FAs) had positive correlation with the inhibition rates of HAs and FAs against phytopathogenic fungi. According to our research, the active fungicidal components in soil HAs and FAs decreased along with the extension of cultivation years, which made the soil suffer more risk to phytopathogenic fugi. So we believe continuous cultivation too many years in PGVP systems is inadvisable.

Fungicidal activities of soil humic/fulvic acids as related to their chemical structures in greenhouse vegetable fields with cultivation chronosequence

PubMed Central

Wu, Meng; Song, Mengya; Liu, Ming; Jiang, Chunyu; Li, Zhongpei

2016-01-01

In the background of rapid expansion of plastic greenhouse vegetable production in China, many environmental risks have emerged in recent years. In this study, the soils with a chronosequence in greenhouse vegetable fields were collected and the soil humic acids (HAs) and fluvic acids (FAs) were extracted and purified. The soil HAs and FAs were found to show inhibition activities against phytopathogenic fungi for the first time. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was performed to investigate the chemical structures of HAs and FAs. The variation of relative peak areas indicated the chemical structure of HAs become more complex and stable under continuous cultivation. The PCA analysis showed HAs and FAs could be distinctly separated from each other and cultivation years mainly determined the variation. Mantel test and RDA analysis indicated the active components (aliphatic peaks for HAs and COOH, OH peaks for FAs) had positive correlation with the inhibition rates of HAs and FAs against phytopathogenic fungi. According to our research, the active fungicidal components in soil HAs and FAs decreased along with the extension of cultivation years, which made the soil suffer more risk to phytopathogenic fugi. So we believe continuous cultivation too many years in PGVP systems is inadvisable. PMID:27597259

[CT scans in children and adolescents: only when appropriate and when optimized].

PubMed

Leiner, Tim; de Jong, Pim A; Nievelstein, Rutger A J

2013-01-01

Radiation exposure due to medical imaging has more than doubled in the Netherlands since the early 1990 s. There is increasing evidence that this is not without risk, especially in children and adolescents. A recent study in over 680,000 Australians < 19 years old at the time of imaging provides further evidence that CT scanning may induce excess cancer. In light of these findings it is of paramount importance that physicians dealing with this patient population only request CT studies if imaging is clearly indicated. New technological developments such as iterative reconstruction will ameliorate the risk for low radiation-dose malignancies, but continued vigilance is necessary.

Modelling recurrent events: comparison of statistical models with continuous and discontinuous risk intervals on recurrent malaria episodes data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Recurrent events data analysis is common in biomedicine. Literature review indicates that most statistical models used for such data are often based on time to the first event or consider events within a subject as independent. Even when taking into account the non-independence of recurrent events within subjects, data analyses are mostly done with continuous risk interval models, which may not be appropriate for treatments with sustained effects (e.g., drug treatments of malaria patients). Furthermore, results can be biased in cases of a confounding factor implying different risk exposure, e.g. in malaria transmission: if subjects are located at zones showing different environmental factors implying different risk exposures. Methods This work aimed to compare four different approaches by analysing recurrent malaria episodes from a clinical trial assessing the effectiveness of three malaria treatments [artesunate + amodiaquine (AS + AQ), artesunate + sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS + SP) or artemether-lumefantrine (AL)], with continuous and discontinuous risk intervals: Andersen-Gill counting process (AG-CP), Prentice-Williams-Peterson counting process (PWP-CP), a shared gamma frailty model, and Generalized Estimating Equations model (GEE) using Poisson distribution. Simulations were also made to analyse the impact of the addition of a confounding factor on malaria recurrent episodes. Results Using the discontinuous interval analysis, AG-CP and Shared gamma frailty models provided similar estimations of treatment effect on malaria recurrent episodes when adjusted on age category. The patients had significant decreased risk of recurrent malaria episodes when treated with AS + AQ or AS + SP arms compared to AL arm; Relative Risks were: 0.75 (95% CI (Confidence Interval): 0.62-0.89), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62-0.88) respectively for AG-CP model and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64-0.89), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62-0.87) for the Shared gamma frailty model. With both discontinuous and continuous risk intervals analysis, GEE Poisson distribution models failed to detect the effect of AS + AQ arm compared to AL arm when adjusted for age category. The discontinuous risk interval analysis was found to be the more appropriate approach. Conclusion Repeated event in infectious diseases such as malaria can be analysed with appropriate existing models that account for the correlation between multiple events within subjects with common statistical software packages, after properly setting up the data structures. PMID:25073652

Decision making with environmental indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoag, Dana L.; Ascough, James C.; Keske-Handley, C.; Koontz, Lynne; Burk, A.R.

2005-01-01

Since Ott's seminal book on environmental indices (1978), the use of indices has expanded into several natural resource disciplines, including ecological studies, environmental policymaking, and agricultural economics. However, despite their increasing use in natural resource disciplines, researchers and public decision makers continue to express concern about validity of these instruments to capture and communicate multidimensional, and sometimes disparate, characteristics of research data and stakeholder interests. Our purpose is to demonstrate how useful indices can be for communicating environmental information to decision makers. We discuss how environmental indices have evolved over four stages: 1) simple; 2) compound multicriteria; 3) the impact matrix and 4) disparate stakeholder management. We provide examples of simple and compound indices that were used by policy decision makers. We then build a framework, called an Impact Matrix (IM), that comprehensively accounts for multiple indices but lets the user decide how to integrate them. The IM was shaped from the concept of a financial risk payoff matrix and applied to ecosystem risk. While the IM offers flexibility, it does not address stakeholder preferences about which index to use. Therefore, the last phase in our evolutionary ladder includes stakeholder indices to specifically address disparate stakeholder preferences. Finally, we assert that an environmental index has the potential to increase resource efficiency, since the number of decision making resources may be reduced, and hence improve upon resource productivity

Who Should Receive a Transplant for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia?

PubMed

Dhawan, Rishi; Marks, David I

2017-04-01

Allogeneic haematopoietic cell transplantation continues to be an important curative therapy for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Traditionally accepted indications for allografting adult ALL patients need reevaluation in light of outcomes with paediatric-like intensive regimens. Minimal residual disease status and oncogenetics can be used for restratification of standard risk patients. A greater body of data on haematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) outcomes from haploidentical and cord blood donor sources has been generated in recent years. In this review, we describe the indications for allografting adult ALL patients in first complete remission (CR1). Role of minimal residual disease (MRD) in optimising HCT for ALL is delineated. We also discuss how alternative donors, haploidentical and cord blood and reduced intensity conditioning make allografts more accessible to patients with high-risk ALL. Recent data on use of monoclonal antibodies and chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-modified T cells in adult ALL patients are also reviewed.

Current and emerging indications for implantable cardiac monitors.

PubMed

Giada, Franco; Bertaglia, Emanuele; Reimers, Bernhard; Noventa, Donatella; Raviele, Antonio

2012-09-01

Implantable cardiac monitors (ICMs) continuously monitor the patient's electrocardiogram and perform real-time analysis of the heart rhythm, for up to 36 months. The current clinical use of ICMs involves the evaluation of transitory symptoms of possible arrhythmic origin, such as unexplained syncope and palpitations. Moreover, ICMs can also be used for the evaluation of difficult cases of epilepsy and unexplained falls, though current indications for their application in these sectors are less clearly defined. Finally, the ability of new-generation ICMs to automatically record arrhythmic episodes suggests that these devices could also be used to study asymptomatic arrhythmias, and thus could be proposed for the long-term evaluation of the total (symptomatic and asymptomatic) arrhythmic burden in patients at risk of arrhythmic events. In particular, ICMs may have an emerging role in the management of patients with atrial fibrillation and in those at risk of ventricular arrhythmias. ©2012, The Authors. Journal compilation ©2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mengel, Matthias; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2 °C for a warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.

Anomalous High Rainfall and Soil Saturation as Combined Risk Indicator of Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks, South Africa, 2008-2011.

PubMed

Williams, Roy; Malherbe, Johan; Weepener, Harold; Majiwa, Phelix; Swanepoel, Robert

2016-12-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic vectorborne viral disease, causes loss of life among humans and livestock and an adverse effect on the economy of affected countries. Vaccination is the most effective way to protect livestock; however, during protracted interepidemic periods, farmers discontinue vaccination, which leads to loss of herd immunity and heavy losses of livestock when subsequent outbreaks occur. Retrospective analysis of the 2008-2011 RVF epidemics in South Africa revealed a pattern of continuous and widespread seasonal rainfall causing substantial soil saturation followed by explicit rainfall events that flooded dambos (seasonally flooded depressions), triggering outbreaks of disease. Incorporation of rainfall and soil saturation data into a prediction model for major outbreaks of RVF resulted in the correctly identified risk in nearly 90% of instances at least 1 month before outbreaks occurred; all indications are that irrigation is of major importance in the remaining 10% of outbreaks.

Criminalisation of clients: reproducing vulnerabilities for violence and poor health among street-based sex workers in Canada—a qualitative study

PubMed Central

Krüsi, A; Pacey, K; Bird, L; Taylor, C; Chettiar, J; Allan, S; Bennett, D; Montaner, J S; Kerr, T; Shannon, K

2014-01-01

Objectives To explore how criminalisation and policing of sex buyers (clients) rather than sex workers shapes sex workers’ working conditions and sexual transactions including risk of violence and HIV/sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Design Qualitative and ethnographic study triangulated with sex work-related violence prevalence data and publicly available police statistics. Setting Vancouver, Canada, provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of policies that criminalise clients as the local police department adopted a sex work enforcement policy in January 2013 that prioritises sex workers’ safety over arrest, while continuing to target clients. Participants 26 cisgender and 5 transgender women who were street-based sex workers (n=31) participated in semistructured interviews about their working conditions. All had exchanged sex for money in the previous 30 days in Vancouver. Outcome measures Thematic analysis of interview transcripts and ethnographic field notes focused on how police enforcement of clients shaped sex workers’ working conditions and sexual transactions, including risk of violence and HIV/STIs, over an 11-month period postpolicy implementation (January–November 2013). Results Sex workers’ narratives and ethnographic observations indicated that while police sustained a high level of visibility, they eased charging or arresting sex workers and showed increased concern for their safety. However, participants’ accounts and police statistics indicated continued police enforcement of clients. This profoundly impacted the safety strategies sex workers employed. Sex workers continued to mistrust police, had to rush screening clients and were displaced to outlying areas with increased risks of violence, including being forced to engage in unprotected sex. Conclusions These findings suggest that criminalisation and policing strategies that target clients reproduce the harms created by the criminalisation of sex work, in particular, vulnerability to violence and HIV/STIs. The current findings support decriminalisation of sex work to ensure work conditions that support the health and safety of sex workers in Canada and globally. PMID:24889853

Attachment and attention: protection in relation to gender and cumulative social-contextual adversity.

PubMed

Fearon, R M Pasco; Belsky, Jay

2004-01-01

Data from 918 children from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care were examined to test the interrelation of attachment and attentional performance and 2 known risks for poor attentional performance: male gender and social-contextual adversity. Attachment was measured using the Strange Situation at 15 months, attentional performance by a Continuous Performance Test (CPT) and maternal questionnaires at 54 months, and social-contextual adversity by a variety of measures from birth to 54 months. Findings indicated (a) that children with secure attachment were less susceptible to the effects of cumulative risk and gender on CPT attentional performance than their insecure counterparts and that (b) no such differential risk susceptibility was evident for maternal reports of attention-related behavior problems.

Long-term effects of earlier initiated continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in Madagascar.

PubMed

Nagai, Shuko; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Rabesandratana, Norotiana; Andrianarimanana, Diavolana; Nakayama, Takeo; Mori, Rintaro

2011-12-01

To examine the long-term effects of earlier initiated continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for relatively stable low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in a resource-limited country. A randomized controlled trial with long-term follow-up was performed in LBW infants in Madagascar. Earlier continuous KMC (intervention group) was initiated as soon as possible within 24 h postbirth, and later continuous KMC (control group: conventional care) was initiated after complete stabilization. Outcome measures were mortality or readmission, nutritional indicators at 6-12 months postbirth and feeding condition at 6 months postbirth (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00531492). A total of 72 infants were followed for mortality or readmission at 6-12 months postbirth. There was no difference between the two groups (7/36 vs. 7/36, Risk ratio (RR), 1.00; 95% CIs, 0.39-2.56; p = 1.00). The proportion of exclusive breast feeding (EBF) at 6 months postbirth was significantly higher with earlier KMC than later KMC (12/29 vs. 4/26; RR 2.69; 95% CIs, 1.00-7.31; p = 0.04). There were no differences in nutritional indicators between the two groups at 6-12 months postbirth. Earlier initiated continuous KMC results in a significantly higher proportion of EBF at 6 months postbirth. Further larger-scale long-term evaluations of earlier initiated continuous KMC for LBW infants are needed. © 2011 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2011 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Genetics and alcoholism.

PubMed

Edenberg, Howard J; Foroud, Tatiana

2013-08-01

Alcohol is widely consumed; however, excessive use creates serious physical, psychological and social problems and contributes to the pathogenesis of many diseases. Alcohol use disorders (that is, alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse) are maladaptive patterns of excessive drinking that lead to serious problems. Abundant evidence indicates that alcohol dependence (alcoholism) is a complex genetic disease, with variations in a large number of genes affecting a person's risk of alcoholism. Some of these genes have been identified, including two genes involved in the metabolism of alcohol (ADH1B and ALDH2) that have the strongest known affects on the risk of alcoholism. Studies continue to reveal other genes in which variants affect the risk of alcoholism or related traits, including GABRA2, CHRM2, KCNJ6 and AUTS2. As more variants are analysed and studies are combined for meta-analysis to achieve increased sample sizes, an improved picture of the many genes and pathways that affect the risk of alcoholism will be possible.

2013 Space Radiation Standing Review Panel Status Review for: The Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure, The Risk of Acute Radiation Syndromes Due to Solar Particle Events (SPEs), The Risk Of Degenerative Tissue Or Other Health Effects From Radiation Exposure, and The Risk of Radiation Carcinogenesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2014-01-01

The Space Radiation Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) was impressed with the strong research program presented by the scientists and staff associated with NASA's Space Radiation Program Element and National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI). The presentations given on-site and the reports of ongoing research that were provided in advance indicated the potential Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure (CNS) and were extensively discussed by the SRP. This new data leads the SRP to recommend that a higher priority should be placed on research designed to identify and understand these risks at the mechanistic level. To support this effort the SRP feels that a shift of emphasis from Acute Radiation Syndromes (ARS) and carcinogenesis to CNS-related endpoints is justified at this point. However, these research efforts need to focus on mechanisms, should follow pace with advances in the field of CNS in general and should consider the specific comments and suggestions made by the SRP as outlined below. The SRP further recommends that the Space Radiation Program Element continue with its efforts to fill the vacant positions (Element Scientist, CNS Risk Discipline Lead) as soon as possible. The SRP also strongly recommends that NASA should continue the NASA Space Radiation Summer School. In addition to these broad recommendations, there are specific comments/recommendations noted for each risk, described in detail below.

Correlates of Double Risk of HIV Acquisition and Transmission Among Women who Inject Drugs in St. Petersburg, Russia.

PubMed

Girchenko, Polina; King, Elizabeth J

2017-04-01

Russia continues to experience a growing HIV epidemic, and women account for an increasing proportion of new HIV diagnoses in the country. This study aims to provide up-to-date information on factors associated with unsafe sex and drug use behaviors among women who inject drugs in St. Petersburg, Russia. In this community-based sample of 500 women who inject drugs, 64% tested positive for HIV. Women reported the following: 21% reported injection risk, 22% reported sexual risk, and 18% reported double risk. Multivariable analyses using logistic multinomial regression showed that older age is associated with increased risk behaviors. Involvement in transactional sex is associated with injection risk [aOR = 1.59 (1.02, 2.48)] but protective against sexual risk [aOR = 0.11 (0.06, 0.19)]. Exposure to sexual violence is associated with increased injection risk [aOR = 1.78 (1.01, 3.14)] and double risk [aOR = 3.38 (1.50, 7.63)]. These findings indicate the need to address both the unsafe injection and sexual risks among women who inject drugs in Russia.

Spatiotemporal analysis of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Wei; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Dong; Li, Tian-xiao; Cheng, Kun; Cui, Song

2017-06-01

Droughts are natural disasters that pose significant threats to agricultural production as well as living conditions, and a spatial-temporal difference analysis of agricultural drought risk can help determine the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the drought risk within a region. Moreover, this type of analysis can provide a theoretical basis for the identification, prevention, and mitigation of drought disasters. In this study, the overall dispersion and local aggregation of projection points were based on research by Friedman and Tukey (IEEE Trans on Computer 23:881-890, 1974). In this work, high-dimensional samples were clustered by cluster analysis. The clustering results were represented by the clustering matrix, which determined the local density in the projection index. This method avoids the problem of determining a cutoff radius. An improved projection pursuit model is proposed that combines cluster analysis and the projection pursuit model, which offer advantages for classification and assessment, respectively. The improved model was applied to analyze the agricultural drought risk of 13 cities in Heilongjiang Province over 6 years (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014). The risk of an agricultural drought disaster was characterized by 14 indicators and the following four aspects: hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and resistance capacity. The spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed. The spatial distribution results indicated that Suihua, Qigihar, Daqing, Harbin, and Jiamusi are located in high-risk areas, Daxing'anling and Yichun are located in low-risk areas, and the differences among the regions were primarily caused by the aspects exposure and resistance capacity. The temporal variation results indicated that the risk of agricultural drought in most areas presented an initially increasing and then decreasing trend. A higher value for the exposure aspect increased the risk of drought, whereas a higher value for the resistance capacity aspect reduced the risk of drought. Over the long term, the exposure level of the region presented limited increases, whereas the resistance capacity presented considerable increases. Therefore, the risk of agricultural drought in Heilongjiang Province will continue to exhibit a decreasing trend.

Comparative Study of Continuous and Pulsatile Left Ventricular Assist Devices on Hemodynamics of a Pediatric End-to-Side Anastomotic Graft

PubMed Central

Yang, Ning; Deutsch, Steven; Paterson, Eric G.; Manning, Keefe B.

2013-01-01

Although there are many studies that focus on understanding the consequence of pumping mode (continuous vs. pulsatile) associated with ventricular assist devices (VADs) on pediatric vascular pulsatility, the impact on local hemodynamics has been largely ignored. Hence, we compare not only the hemodynamic parameters indicative of pulsatility but also the local flow fields in the aorta and the great vessels originating from the aortic arch. A physiologic graft anastomotic model is constructed based on a pediatric, patient specific, aorta with a graft attached on the ascending aorta. The flow is simulated using a previously validated second-order accurate Navier–Stokes flow solver based upon a finite volume approach. The major findings are: (1) pulsatile support provides a greater degree of vascular pulsatility when compared to continuous support, which, however, is still 20% less than pulsatility in the healthy aorta; (2) pulsatile support increases the flow in the great vessels, while continuous support decreases it; (3) complete VAD support results in turbulence in the aorta, with maximum principal Reynolds stresses for pulsatile support and continuous support of 7081 and 249 dyn/cm2, respectively; (4) complete pulsatile support results in a significant increase in predicted hemolysis in the aorta; and (5) pulsatile support causes both higher time-averaged wall shear stresses (WSS) and oscillatory shear indices (OSI) in the aorta than does continuous support. These findings will help to identify the risk of graft failure for pediatric patients with pulsatile and continuous VADs. PMID:24348881

Eating disorders and disordered weight and shape control behaviors in sexual minority populations

PubMed Central

Calzo, Jerel P.; Blashill, Aaron J.; Brown, Tiffany A.; Argenal, Russell L.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review This review summarized trends and key findings from empirical studies conducted between 2011–2017 regarding eating disorders and disordered weight and shape control behaviors among lesbian, gay, bisexual, and other sexual minority (i.e., non-heterosexual) populations. Recent findings Recent research has examined disparities through sociocultural and minority stress approaches. Sexual minorities continue to demonstrate higher rates of disordered eating; disparities are more pronounced among males. Emerging data indicates elevated risk for disordered eating pathology among sexual minorities who are transgender or ethnic minorities. Dissonance-based eating disorder prevention programs may hold promise for sexual minority males. Summary Continued research must examine the intersections of sexual orientation, gender, and ethnic identities, given emergent data that eating disorder risk may be most prominent among specific subgroups. More research is needed within sexual minorities across the lifespan. There are still a lack of eating disorder treatment and prevention studies for sexual minorities. PMID:28660475

Risk factors for sporadic listeriosis in the Netherlands, 2008 to 2013.

PubMed

Friesema, I H; Kuiling, S; van der Ende, A; Heck, M E; Spanjaard, L; van Pelt, W

2015-08-06

Although the disease burden of listeriosis on population level is low, on individual level the impact is high, largely due to severe illness and a high case fatality. Identification of risk factors supports and specifies public health actions needed for prevention. We performed a case–control study to determine host- and food-related risk factors for non-perinatal listeriosis in the Netherlands. Patients with non-perinatal listeriosis reported between July 2008 and December 2013 were compared with controls from a periodic control survey who completed a questionnaire in the same period. Higher age, male sex, underlying disease, especially cancer and kidney disease, and use of immunosuppressive medicine were strong risk factors for acquiring non-perinatal listeriosis. Analysis of the food consumption in the group of cases and controls with underlying diseases did not reveal any high-risk food products. Information and advice should continue to be given to persons at risk of severe listeriosis. Univariate analyses indicate that patients using gastric acid inhibitors are at risk. It is worth adding these patients to the group of susceptible persons.

[Side effects and risk profile of lithium: critical assessment of a systematic review and meta-analysis].

PubMed

Bschor, T; Bauer, M

2013-07-01

Lithium is the only drug that obtained the highest level of recommendation for maintenance therapy in the recent German S3 guidelines on bipolar disorders. In addition it is the only drug with proven efficacy for the prevention of manic as well as depressive episodes in studies with a non-enriched design. Therefore, it is highly welcomed that The Lancet recently published a systematic review and meta-analysis on the risks and side effects of lithium. This is the most comprehensive review on this topic so far.The glomerular filtration rate and maximum urinary concentration ability are slightly reduced under lithium. More patients suffered from renal failure compared to controls; however, renal failure remains a very rare event. The review confirmed the well known suppressive effects of lithium on the thyroid. An increase of serum calcium could be observed relatively frequently, therefore, regular control of serum calcium under lithium therapy is recommended. A relevant increase in body weight is more frequent under lithium than under placebo but less frequent than under olanzapine. No statistically significant increase could be found for hair loss, skin disorders or major congenital abnormalities.Lithium treatment is a safe therapy when clinicians follow the established recommendations. Data indicate that a risk for renal failure exists especially in patients without regular monitoring or with too high lithium serum levels. A (subclinical) hypothyroidism is not an indication to stop administration of lithium but is an indication for l-thyroxin substitution therapy. In pregnancy the risks of continuing lithium should be balanced against the risks of stopping lithium together with the patient.

Development and validation of a continuous measure of patient condition using the Electronic Medical Record.

PubMed

Rothman, Michael J; Rothman, Steven I; Beals, Joseph

2013-10-01

Patient condition is a key element in communication between clinicians. However, there is no generally accepted definition of patient condition that is independent of diagnosis and that spans acuity levels. We report the development and validation of a continuous measure of general patient condition that is independent of diagnosis, and that can be used for medical-surgical as well as critical care patients. A survey of Electronic Medical Record data identified common, frequently collected non-static candidate variables as the basis for a general, continuously updated patient condition score. We used a new methodology to estimate in-hospital risk associated with each of these variables. A risk function for each candidate input was computed by comparing the final pre-discharge measurements with 1-year post-discharge mortality. Step-wise logistic regression of the variables against 1-year mortality was used to determine the importance of each variable. The final set of selected variables consisted of 26 clinical measurements from four categories: nursing assessments, vital signs, laboratory results and cardiac rhythms. We then constructed a heuristic model quantifying patient condition (overall risk) by summing the single-variable risks. The model's validity was assessed against outcomes from 170,000 medical-surgical and critical care patients, using data from three US hospitals. Outcome validation across hospitals yields an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) of ≥0.92 when separating hospice/deceased from all other discharge categories, an AUC of ≥0.93 when predicting 24-h mortality and an AUC of 0.62 when predicting 30-day readmissions. Correspondence with outcomes reflective of patient condition across the acuity spectrum indicates utility in both medical-surgical units and critical care units. The model output, which we call the Rothman Index, may provide clinicians with a longitudinal view of patient condition to help address known challenges in caregiver communication, continuity of care, and earlier detection of acuity trends. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acceptability of screening for early detection of liver disease in hazardous/harmful drinkers in primary care.

PubMed

Eyles, Caroline; Moore, Michael; Sheron, Nicholas; Roderick, Paul; O'Brien, Wendy; Leydon, Geraldine M

2013-08-01

It is estimated that one-quarter of adults in the UK drink at harmful/hazardous levels leading to increased mortality and alcohol liver disease (ALD). The Alcohol Liver Disease Detection Study (ALDDeS) aimed to test out in primary care the feasibility of alcohol misuse screening in adults, using the AUDIT questionnaire, and to assess screening harmful/hazardous alcohol users for ALD using newer non-invasive serum markers of fibrosis. To explore patients' experiences of taking part in ALDDeS and understanding of the delivery and process of screening for ALD using self-report questionnaires and feedback of liver fibrosis risk using levels of non-invasive serum markers. A nested qualitative study based in five primary care practices in the UK. From a sample of patients who were identified as drinking at harmful/hazardous levels, 30 participants were identified by maximum variation sampling for qualitative in-depth interviews. Using the principles of constant comparison the transcribed interviews were thematically analysed. Receiving a postal AUDIT questionnaire was viewed as acceptable by participants. For some completing the AUDIT increased awareness of their hazardous alcohol use and a positive blood test indicating liver fibrosis was a catalyst for behaviour change. For others, a negative blood test result provided a licence to continue drinking at hazardous levels. A limited understanding of safe drinking and of ALD was common. Educational and training needs of primary care professionals must be taken into account, so that patients with marker levels indicating low risk of fibrosis are correctly informed about the likely risks of continuing to drink at the same levels.

Falls-Related Drug Use and Risk of Falls Among Older Adults: A Study in a US Medicare Population.

PubMed

Musich, Shirley; Wang, Shaohung S; Ruiz, Joann; Hawkins, Kevin; Wicker, Ellen

2017-07-01

Approximately one-third of community-dwelling older adults fall each year, and approximately 10% have falls requiring medical services. Among other factors, research studies have linked certain medications with an increased risk of falls. The aim of this study was to examine the risk of falls relative to use patterns among new and continuing falls-related drug (FRD) users. A 10% random sample, insured in AARP ® Medicare Supplement and AARP Medicare Part D Rx plans, was utilized to define new and continuing FRD users. New users had a 12-month pre-period without FRD use, whereas continuing users had at least one FRD in the pre-period. Both groups had 12-month follow-up after initiating or continuing FRD use. Characteristics associated with the risk of falls for new and continuing users were determined using multivariate logistic regression models. Among insureds, 44% used at least one of the FRD classes. Of these, 29% were new users (N = 35,340) and 71% were continuing users (N = 121,488). Fall rates for the two subgroups were similar at 7 and 8%, respectively. Characteristics associated with the risk of falls were previous injurious fall, use of two or more classes of FRDs, older age, poorer health, and being female. New users were at higher risk than continuing users. New users of FRDs were at highest risk of falls, and continuing users were at increased risk, especially with higher numbers of FRD classes. Both groups could benefit from falls awareness and prevention programs.

[Potential health risks from consumption of water with arsenic in Colima, Mexico].

PubMed

Mendoza-Cano, Oliver; Sánchez-Piña, Ramón Alberto; Barrón-Quintana, Julián; Cuevas-Arellano, Herguin Benjamin; Escalante-Minakata, Pilar; Solano-Barajas, Ramón

2017-01-01

To estimate potential health risks due to chronic ingestion of arsenic from groundwater in Colima, Mexico. Samples were randomly taken in 36 wells from 10 local aquifers. Analysis was performed by ICP-OES following international standards. Geostatistical interpolation was performed with ArcGIS, implementing a model weighting inverse distance to estimate arsenic routes of exposure and consumption on each locality. The Hazard Quotient Ratio (HQ) and carcinogenic risk (R) for As were estimated. The weighted average HQ for arsenic in Colima is 2.41. There are HQ> 1 values indicating adverse non-cancer health effects by continuous and prolonged intake of water with arsenic, which could affect 183 832 individuals in the state. The risk of developing any type of cancer among the population in this study due to high arsenic concentrations in groundwater (R) is 1.089E-3, which could statistically cause 446 cases of cancer. Current levels of arsenic in groundwater increase carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic human health risks in Colima.

Assessing and mitigating the risks for polio outbreaks in polio-free countries - Africa, 2013-2014.

PubMed

Andre, McKenzie; Wolff, Chris G; Tangermann, Rudolf H; Chenoweth, Paul; Tallis, Graham; Kamgang, Jean Baptiste; Wassilak, Steven G F

2014-08-29

Since 1988, when the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) began, the annual number of polio cases has decreased by >99%. Only three countries remain that have never interrupted wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission: Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Since 2001, outbreaks have occurred in 31 formerly polio-free counties in Africa, with outbreaks in 25 countries caused by WPV originating in Nigeria (2-4). After the declaration of the World Health Assembly of polio eradication as a programmatic emergency in 2012, efforts to identify areas at high risk for importation-associated outbreaks and to reduce that risk have been intensified. This report updates the 2013 assessment of the risk for outbreaks attributable to importation of poliovirus in 33 countries in Africa, using indicators of childhood susceptibility to poliovirus and proximity to countries currently affected by polio . From January 2013 to August 12, 2014, outbreaks occurred in five African countries. Four of the five (Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, and Somalia) have had recent transmission (cases within the previous 12 months). Based on the current risk assessment, 15 countries are considered to be at high risk for WPV outbreaks, five at moderate-to-high risk, seven at moderate risk, and six at low risk. In 15 of the 33 countries, less than half of the population resides in areas where surveillance performance indicators have met minimum targets. Enhanced, coordinated activities to raise childhood immunity are underway in 2014 to prevent additional WPV spread. Although substantial progress toward polio eradication has occurred in Nigeria, all African countries remain at risk for outbreaks as long as WPV continues to circulate anywhere on the continent.

Consumer risk perceptions toward agricultural biotechnology, self-protection, and food demand: the case of milk in the United States.

PubMed

Zepeda, Lydia; Douthitt, Robin; You, So-Ye

2003-10-01

This study is an econometric systems approach to modeling the factors and linkages affecting risk perceptions toward agricultural biotechnology, self-protection actions, and food demand. This model is applied to milk in the United States, but it can be adapted to other products as well as other categories of risk perceptions. The contribution of this formulation is the ability to examine how explanatory factors influence risk perceptions and whether they translate into behavior and ultimately what impact this has on aggregate markets. Hadden's outrage factors on heightening risk perceptions are among the factors examined. In particular, the article examines the role of labeling as a means of permitting informed consent to mitigate outrage factors. The effects of attitudinal, economic, and demographic factors on risk perceptions are also explored, as well as the linkage between risk perceptions, consumer behavior, and food demand. Because risk perceptions and self-protection actions are categorical variables and demand is a continuous variable, the model is estimated as a two-stage mixed system with a covariance correction procedure suggested by Amemiya. The findings indicate that it is the availability of labeling, not the price difference, between that labeled milk and milk produced with recombinant bovine Somatotropin (rbST) that significantly affects consumer's selection of rbST-free milk. The results indicate that greater availability of labeled milk would not only significantly increase the proportion of consumers who purchased labeled milk, its availability would also reduce the perception of risk associated with rbST, whether consumers purchase it or not. In other words, availability of rbST-free milk translates into lower risk perceptions toward milk produced with rbST.

Adiposity and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women: Results from the UK Biobank prospective cohort.

PubMed

Guo, Wenji; Key, Timothy J; Reeves, Gillian K

2018-03-23

Body size is an important modifiable risk factor for postmenopausal breast cancer. However, it remains unclear whether direct measures of fat mass are better indicators of risk than anthropometric measures, or whether central adiposity may contribute to risk beyond overall adiposity. We analyzed data from 162,691 postmenopausal women in UK Biobank followed from 2006 to 2014. Body size was measured by trained technicians. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate relative risks. Analyses were stratified by age at recruitment, region and socioeconomic status, and adjusted for family history of breast cancer, age at menarche, age at first birth, parity, age at menopause, previous hormone replacement therapy use, smoking, alcohol intake, height, physical activity and ethnicity. We observed 2,913 incident invasive breast cancers during a mean 5.7 years of follow-up. There was a continuous increase in risk of postmenopausal breast cancer with increasing adiposity, across all measures. The point estimate, comparing women in the top (median 37.6 kg) to bottom (median 17.6 kg) quartile of body fat mass was 1.70 (95% confidence interval 1.52-1.90). The magnitudes of the associations between per SD increase in BMI and body fat mass with breast cancer risk were similar, suggesting impedance measures of fat were not substantially better indicators of risk than anthropometric measures. After adjusting for body fat mass, the associations between anthropometric measures of central adiposity and breast cancer risk were attenuated. The magnitude of risk, across all measures of adiposity, was greater in women who had been postmenopausal for 12 or more years. © 2018 The Authors International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.

Behind the cycle of violence, beyond abuse history: a brief report on the association of parental attachment to physical child abuse potential.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Christina M; Tucker, Meagan C

2011-01-01

Although the concept of a cycle of violence presumes that the transmission of violence is expressed directly across generations, the role of the overall quality of the parent-child relationship may ultimately be more influential in later parenting behavior. This study investigated whether mothers' poorer attachment to their parents was associated with their current increased child abuse potential and dysfunctional disciplinary style independent of a personal history of child abuse. A sample of 73 at-risk mothers raising children with behavior problems reported on their parental attachment, abuse potential, dysfunctional parenting style, and personal abuse history. An at-risk sample, rather than a sample of identified abuse victims or perpetrators, was studied to better examine the potential continuity or discontinuity from history of abuse to current abuse risk, allowing consideration of those who may break the cycle versus those who potentially initiate abuse in the absence of a personal history. Findings indicate that poor attachment significantly predicted both dysfunctional parenting practices and elevated child abuse potential, controlling for personal child abuse history. Such results highlight the importance of the overall quality of the relationship between the parent and child in potentially shaping future abuse risk. Findings are discussed in terms of continuity or discontinuity in the cycle of violence and future directions for research on attachment in relation to the development of later child abuse risk.

Primary prevention of coronary heart disease: integration of new data, evolving views, revised goals, and role of rosuvastatin in management. A comprehensive survey.

PubMed

Kones, Richard

2011-01-01

A recent explosion in the amount of cardiovascular risk and incipient, undetected subclinical cardiovascular pathology has swept across the globe. Nearly 70% of adult Americans are overweight or obese; the prevalence of visceral obesity stands at 53% and continues to rise. At any one time, 55% of the population is on a weight-loss diet, and almost all fail. Fewer than 15% of adults or children exercise sufficiently, and over 60% engage in no vigorous activity. Among adults, 11%-13% have diabetes, 34% have hypertension, 36% have prehypertension, 36% have prediabetes, 12% have both prediabetes and prehypertension, and 15% of the population with either diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia are undiagnosed. About one-third of the adult population, and 80% of the obese, have fatty livers. With 34% of children overweight or obese, prevalence having doubled in just a few years, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and fatty livers in children are at their highest levels ever. Half of adults have at least one cardiovascular risk factor. Not even 1% of the population attains ideal cardiovascular health. Despite falling coronary death rates for decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates in US women 35 to 54 years of age may now be increasing because of the obesity epidemic. Up to 65% of patients do not have their conventional risk biomarkers under control. Only 30% of high risk patients with CHD achieve aggressive low density lipoprotein (LDL) targets. Of those patients with multiple risk factors, fewer than 10% have all of them adequately controlled. Even when patients are titrated to evidence-based targets, about 70% of cardiac events remain unaddressed. Undertreatment is also common. About two-thirds of high risk primary care patients are not taking needed medications for dyslipidemia. Poor patient adherence, typically below 50%, adds further difficulty. Hence, after all such fractional reductions are multiplied, only a modest portion of total cardiovascular risk burden is actually being eliminated, and the full potential of risk reduction remains unrealized. Worldwide the situation is similar, with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome approaching 50%. Primordial prevention, resulting from healthful lifestyle habits that do not permit the appearance of risk factors, is the preferred method to lower cardiovascular risk. Lowering the prevalence of obesity is the most urgent matter, and is pleiotropic since it affects blood pressure, lipid profiles, glucose metabolism, inflammation, and atherothrombotic disease progression. Physical activity also improves several risk factors, with the additional potential to lower heart rate. Given the current obstacles, success of primordial prevention remains uncertain. At the same time, the consequences of delay and inaction will inevitably be disastrous, and the sense of urgency mounts. Since most CHD events arise in a large subpopulation of low- to moderate-risk individuals, identifying a high proportion of those who will go on to develop events with accuracy remains unlikely. Without a refinement in risk prediction, the current model of targeting high-risk individuals for aggressive therapy may not succeed alone, especially given the rising burden of risk. Estimating cardiovascular risk over a period of 10 years, using scoring systems such as Framingham or SCORE, continues to enjoy widespread use and is recommended for all adults. Limitations in the former have been of concern, including the under- or over-estimation of risk in specific populations, a relatively short 10-year risk horizon, focus on myocardial infarction and CHD death, and exclusion of family history. Classification errors may occur in up to 37% of individuals, particularly women and the young. Several different scoring systems are discussed in this review. The use of lifetime risk is an important conceptual advance, since ≥90% of young adults with a low 10-year risk have a lifetime risk of ≥39%; over half of all American adults have a low 10-year risk but a high lifetime risk. At age 50 the absence of traditional risk factors is associated with extremely low lifetime risk and significantly greater longevity. Pathological and epidemiological data confirm that atherosclerosis begins in early childhood, and advances seamlessly and inexorably throughout life. Risk factors in childhood are similar to those in adults, and track between stages of life. When indicated, aggressive treatment should begin at the earliest indication, and be continued for years. For those patients at intermediate risk according to global risk scores, C-reactive protein (CRP), coronary artery calcium (CAC), and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) are available for further stratification. Using statins for primary prevention is recommended by guidelines, is prevalent, but remains underprescribed. Statin drugs are unrivaled, evidence-based, major weapons to lower cardiovascular risk. Even when low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets are attained, over half of patients continue to have disease progression and clinical events. This residual risk is of great concern, and multiple sources of remaining risk exist. Though clinical evidence is incomplete, altering or raising the blood high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level continues to be pursued. Of all agents available, rosuvastatin produces the greatest reduction in LDL-C, LDL-P, and improvement in apoA-I/apoB, together with a favorable safety profile. Several recent proposals and methods to lower cardiovascular risk are reviewed. A combination of approaches, such as the addition of lifetime risk, refinement of risk prediction, guideline compliance, novel treatments, improvement in adherence, and primordial prevention, including environmental and social intervention, will be necessary to lower the present high risk burden.

Assessing potential human health hazards and benefits from subtherapeutic antibiotics in the United States: tetracyclines as a case study.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony; Popken, Douglas A

2010-03-01

Many scientists, activists, regulators, and politicians have expressed urgent concern that using antibiotics in food animals selects for resistant strains of bacteria that harm human health and bring nearer a "postantibiotic era" of multidrug resistant "super-bugs." Proposed political solutions, such as the Preservation of Antibiotics for Medical Treatment Act (PAMTA), would ban entire classes of subtherapeutic antibiotics (STAs) now used for disease prevention and growth promotion in food animals. The proposed bans are not driven by formal quantitative risk assessment (QRA), but by a perceived need for immediate action to prevent potential catastrophe. Similar fears led to STA phase-outs in Europe a decade ago. However, QRA and empirical data indicate that continued use of STAs in the United States has not harmed human health, and bans in Europe have not helped human health. The fears motivating PAMTA contrast with QRA estimates of vanishingly small risks. As a case study, examining specific tetracycline uses and resistance patterns suggests that there is no significant human health hazard from continued use of tetracycline in food animals. Simple hypothetical calculations suggest an unobservably small risk (between 0 and 1.75E-11 excess lifetime risk of a tetracycline-resistant infection), based on the long history of tetracycline use in the United States without resistance-related treatment failures. QRAs for other STA uses in food animals also find that human health risks are vanishingly small. Whether such QRA calculations will guide risk management policy for animal antibiotics in the United States remains to be seen.

Elevated Blood Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio: A Readily Available Biomarker Associated with Death due to Disease in High Risk Nonmetastatic Melanoma.

PubMed

Davis, Jeremy L; Langan, Russell C; Panageas, Katherine S; Zheng, Junting; Postow, Michael A; Brady, Mary S; Ariyan, Charlotte; Coit, Daniel G

2017-07-01

Elevated peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is associated with poor oncologic outcomes in patients with stage IV melanoma and other solid tumors, but its impact has not been characterized for patients with high-risk, nonmetastatic melanoma. Retrospective review of a melanoma database identified patients with high-risk melanoma who underwent operation with curative intent at a single institution. NLR was calculated from blood samples obtained within 2 weeks before operation. Multiple primary melanomas and concurrent hematologic or other metastatic malignancies were excluded. Cumulative incidence of death due to disease was estimated, and Gray's test was used to examine the effect of NLR on melanoma disease-specific death (DOD). Multivariable competing risks regression models assessed associated factors. Data on 1431 patients with high-risk, nonmetastatic melanoma were analyzed. Median follow-up for survivors was 4 years. High NLR (≥3 or as continuous variable) was associated with older age, male sex, thicker primaries, higher mitotic index, and more advanced nodal status. On multivariate analysis, high NLR (≥3 or as a continuous variable), older age, male sex, ulcerated primary, lymphovascular invasion, and positive nodal status were all independently associated with worse DOD. NLR is a readily available blood test that was independently associated with DOD in patients with high-risk, nonmetastatic melanoma. It is unclear whether high NLR is a passive indicator of poor prognosis or a potential therapeutic target. Further studies to evaluate the prognostic role of NLR to potentially identify those more likely to benefit from adjuvant immunotherapy may prove informative.

Drug Abuse, HIV, and HCV in Asian Countries.

PubMed

Hser, Yih-Ing; Liang, Di; Lan, Yu-Ching; Vicknasingam, Balasingam Kasinather; Chakrabarti, Amit

2016-09-01

Drug abuse and co-occurring infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Asian countries are particularly vulnerable to the deleterious consequences of these risks/problems, as they have some of the highest rates of these diseases. This review describes drug abuse, HIV, and hepatitis C (HCV) in Asian countries. The most commonly used illicit drugs include opioids, amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS), cannabis, and ketamine. Among people who inject drugs, HIV rates range from 6.3 % in China to 19 % in Malaysia, and HCV ranges from 41 % in India and Taiwan to 74 % in Vietnam. In the face of the HIV epidemics, drug policies in these countries are slowly changing from the traditional punitive approach (e.g., incarcerating drug users or requiring registration as a drug user) to embrace public health approaches, including, for example, community-based treatment options as well as harm reduction approaches to reduce needle sharing and thus HIV transmission. HIV and HCV molecular epidemiology indicates limited geographic diffusion. While the HIV prevalence is declining in all five countries, use of new drugs (e.g., ATS, ketamine) continues to increase, as well as high-risk sexual behaviors associated with drug use-increasing the risk of sexual transmission of HIV, particularly among men who have sex with men. Screening, early intervention, and continued scaling up of therapeutic options (drug treatment and recovery support, ART, long-term HIV and HCV care for drug users) are critical for effective control or continued reduction of drug abuse and co-infections.

The association between A Body Shape Index and mortality: Results from an Australian cohort.

PubMed

Grant, Janet F; Chittleborough, Catherine R; Shi, Zumin; Taylor, Anne W

2017-01-01

It is well recognised that obesity increases the risk of premature death. A Body Shape Index (ABSI) is a formula that uses waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI) and height to predict risk of premature mortality, where a high score (Quartile 4) indicates that a person's WC is more than expected given their height and weight. Our study examines the association between ABSI quartiles and all-cause-, cardiovascular- and cancer-related mortality, and primary cause of death. Self-reported demographic and biomedically measured health-related risk factor and weight data was from the baseline stage of the North West Adelaide Health Study (1999-2003, n = 4056), a longitudinal cohort of Australian adults. Death-related information was obtained from the National Death Index. Primary cause of death across ABSI quartiles was examined. The association between mortality and ABSI (quartile and continuous scores) was investigated using a Cox proportional hazards survival model and adjusting for socioeconomic, and self-reported and biomedical risk factors. The proportion of all three types of mortality steadily increased from ABSI Quartile 1 through to Quartile 4. After adjusting for demographic and health-related risk factors, the risk of all-cause mortality was higher for people in ABSI Quartile 4 (HR 2.64, 95% CI 01.56-4.47), and ABSI Quartile 3 (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.15-3.33), with a moderate association for the continuous ABSI score (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.18-1.48). ABSI is therefore positively associated with mortality in Australian adults. Different combined measures of obesity such as the ABSI are useful in examining mortality risk.

Concurrent Use of Warfarin and Antibiotics and the Risk of Bleeding in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Baillargeon, Jacques; Holmes, Holly M.; Lin, Yu-li; Raji, Mukaila A.; Sharma, Gulshan; Kuo, Yong-Fang

2011-01-01

Background Antibiotic medications are associated with an increased risk of bleeding among patients receiving warfarin. The recent availability of data from the Medicare Part D prescription drug program provides an opportunity to assess the association of antibiotic medications and the risk of bleeding in a national population of older adults receiving warfarin. Methods We conducted a case-control study nested within a cohort of 38,762 patients aged 65 years and older who were continuous warfarin users, using enrollment and claims data for a 5% national sample of Medicare beneficiaries with Part D benefits. Cases were defined as persons hospitalized for a primary diagnosis of bleeding and were matched with three control subjects on age, race, gender, and indication for warfarin. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of bleeding associated with prior exposure to antibiotic medications. Results Exposure to any antibiotic agent within the 15 days of the event/index date was associated with an increased risk of bleeding (aOR 2.01; 95% CI, 1.62-2.50). All six specific antibiotic drug classes examined [azole antifungals (aOR, 4.57; 95% CI, 1.90-11.03), macrolides (aOR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.08-3.21), quinolones (aOR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.09-2.62), cotrimoxazole (aOR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.46-5.05), penicillins (aOR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.21-2.07) and cephalosporins (aOR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.52-3.95) were associated with an increased risk of bleeding. Conclusion Among older continuous warfarin users, exposure to antibiotic agents—particularly azole antifungals—was associated with an increased risk of bleeding. PMID:22269622

Silicosis in Turkey: Is it an Endless Nightmare or is There Still Hope?

PubMed Central

Akgün, Metin

2018-01-01

Silicosis is an ancient but still life-threatening occupational lung disease because of its incurable nature. Although its risks are known in many occupational settings and effective control strategies are well established, new cases, even epidemics, continue to occur in different sectors of Turkey. Before taking action, defining the magnitude of the problem is essential. In this concise review, we aimed to present the current situation of silicosis in Turkey. According to the data available to date, silicosis continues to be a major health problem in different sectors. Sandblasting seems to have the highest risk for the development of silicosis. Disease onset at early age and history of short exposure duration may indicate intense silica exposure. After denim sandblasters, dental technicians seem to be the new and recently recognized high-risk occupation group as per the increasing reports. Because of the lack of a definite treatment of silicosis, prevention of the disease should be the main target. Better occupational disease registry systems would be useful to assess the magnitude of the problem. In addition to implementing the necessary regulations, a close inspection of the workplaces for potential risks is essential. Other social and economic factors related with the occurrence of disease, such as unregistered employment rate and unlicensed and uninsured work, should also be considered. Finally, optimal healthcare and better living conditions for patients with silicosis should be ensured. PMID:29755813

Predicting the transition from juvenile delinquency to adult criminality: Gender-specific influences in two high-risk samples.

PubMed

Rhoades, Kimberly A; Leve, Leslie D; Eddy, J Mark; Chamberlain, Patricia

2016-12-01

Most juvenile offenders desist from offending as they become adults, but many continue and ultimately enter the adult corrections system. There has been little prospective examination of which variables may predict the latter transition, particularly for women. Our aim was to find out, for men and women separately, what variables identifiable in adolescent offenders predict their continuation of offending into adult life. Participants were 61 male and 81 female youths who had been referred from the juvenile justice system for chronic delinquency and recruited into randomised controlled trials comparing Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care with group care ('treatment as usual'). All participants had attained adulthood by the time of our study. We first examined gender differences in childhood risk factors and then used Cox proportional-hazards models to estimate the relationship of potential risk factors to first adult arrest. Results indicated that, for men, juvenile justice referrals alone predicted risk of any first adult arrest as well as arrest for felony arrest specifically. Each additional juvenile referral increased the risk of any adult arrest by 9% and of adult felony arrest by 8%. For women, family violence, parental divorce and cumulative childhood risk factors, but not juvenile justice referrals, were significant predictors of adult arrest. Each additional childhood risk factor increased the risk of adult arrest by 21%. Women who experienced parental divorce were nearly three times more likely to be arrested as an adult, and those who experienced family violence 2.5 times more so than those without such experiences. We found preliminary evidence of gender differences in childhood risk factors for adult offending, and, thus potentially, for the development and use of interventions tailored differently for girls and boys and young men and young women to reduce their risk of becoming adult recidivists. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The attitude of risk taking Islamic junior high school (MTs) students in learning mathematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuni, Y.; Darhim; Turmudi

2018-05-01

This study aims to determine the risk-taking attitude of students at Islamic Junior High School (MTs) in Bekasi towards learning mathematics. This is a preliminary research to get information about risk taking attitude in order to conduct next research. Data are obtained by providing questionnaires of 20 indicators, which includes be careful in act, having peace of mind, resolute in making decisions and confident in the act. Respondents are as many as 97 students of 7th grade students of MTs and taken with random techniques from two MTs in the city of Bekasi. The research instrument was adopted from DOSPERT developed, adapted to the ability of 7th grade students of MTs. The attitude of risk taking is part of the student's responsibility attitude to the learning of mathematics, either during preparation, process or after learning mathematics. The attitude of risk taking is important to know in order to be trained continuously. Because the trained attitude of risk taking will make students succeed in learning and working later.

Risk perceptions and smoking decisions of adult Chinese men.

PubMed

Lin, Wanchuan; Sloan, Frank

2015-01-01

This study analyzes effects of changes in risk perceptions of smoking's health harms on actual and attempted quits and quitting intentions of male smokers in China. Our survey of 5000+ male smokers was conducted two years after their neighbor's lung cancer diagnosis. We use proximity to a lung cancer neighbor as an exogenous determinant of individual's smoking risk perception. We show that learning of a neighbor's lung cancer diagnosis substantially affects smokers' subjective beliefs about smoking's harms, which in turn affects decisions about continued smoking and intentions to quit. Our study findings offer important public policy implications in indicating the importance of designing health-warning messages that fit smokers' personal circumstances as opposed to warnings solely based on edicts from scientific experts and/or epidemiological evidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nickol, Craig L.

2008-01-01

A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

Health Hazard Appraisal Counseling—Continuing Evaluation

PubMed Central

LaDou, Joseph; Sherwood, John N.; Hughes, Lewis

1979-01-01

A program of annual health examinations was expanded to include counseling based on a computerized appraisal of individual patients' specific health risk factors. Data obtained from a specially designed questionnaire, laboratory tests and a physical examination yielded a health hazard appraisal showing a number of weighted risk factors and their relation to ten leading causes of death as determined for that patient. From all of this information, a “risk age” was developed which could then be compared with the patient's “true age.” The results were reviewed with each patient, and methods of correcting health hazards were stressed. The first annual retesting of a group of 107 examinees showed a net risk age reduction of 1.4 years (formerly reported in this journal). The longer term follow-up reported in this paper showed a net risk reduction of 2.38 years in a group of 26 examinees. The net risk age reduction in the two groups represented 32 and 40 percent, respectively, of the achievable risk age reduction when patients comply with suggestions made during risk reduction counseling. These findings indicate that health hazard appraisal counseling is an effective method of altering priorities of health practices. PMID:425518

Organizational sensemaking about risk controls: the case of offshore hydrocarbons production.

PubMed

Busby, J S; Collins, A M

2014-09-01

In the same way that individuals' risk perceptions can influence how they behave toward risks, how organizational members make sense of risk controls is an important influence on how they apply and maintain such controls. In this article, we describe an analysis of sensemaking about the control of risk in offshore hydrocarbons production, an industry that continues to produce disasters of societal significance. A field study of 80 interviews was conducted in five offshore oil and gas companies and the agency that regulates them. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative template analysis. This provided a categorization of the many ways of acting through which informants made sense of the risk control task, and indicated that the organizations placed substantially different emphases on different ways of acting. Nevertheless, this sensemaking fell into two broad classes: that which tended to limit or be pessimistic about organizational controls, and that which tended to extend or be optimistic about organizational controls. All the participating organizations collectively placed a balanced emphasis on these two classes. We argue that this balanced sensemaking is an adaptation rather than a deliberate choice, but that it is an important element of controlling risk in its own right. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Management Implementation Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Shayla L.

2004-01-01

Continuous Risk Management (CM) is a software engineering practice with processes, methods, and tools for managing risk in a project. It provides a controlled environment for practical decision making, in order to assess continually what could go wrong, determine which risk are important to deal with, implement strategies to deal with those risk and assure the measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. Continuous Risk Management provides many training workshops and courses to teach the staff how to implement risk management to their various experiments and projects. The steps of the CRM process are identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and control. These steps and the various methods and tools that go along with them, identification, and dealing with risk is clear-cut. The office that I worked in was the Risk Management Office (RMO). The RMO at NASA works hard to uphold NASA s mission of exploration and advancement of scientific knowledge and technology by defining and reducing program risk. The RMO is one of the divisions that fall under the Safety and Assurance Directorate (SAAD). I worked under Cynthia Calhoun, Flight Software Systems Engineer. My task was to develop a help screen for the Continuous Risk Management Implementation Tool (RMIT). The Risk Management Implementation Tool will be used by many NASA managers to identify, analyze, track, control, and communicate risks in their programs and projects. The RMIT will provide a means for NASA to continuously assess risks. The goals and purposes for this tool is to provide a simple means to manage risks, be used by program and project managers throughout NASA for managing risk, and to take an aggressive approach to advertise and advocate the use of RMIT at each NASA center.

A survey of Tennessee veterinarian and physician attitudes, knowledge, and practices regarding zoonoses prevention among animal owners with HIV infection or AIDS.

PubMed

Hill, William Allen; Petty, Gregory C; Erwin, Paul C; Souza, Marcy J

2012-06-15

To examine the attitudes, knowledge, and practices of Tennessee veterinarians and physicians engaged in clinical practice regarding the risk for and prevention of zoonoses in people with HIV infection or AIDS. Cross-sectional survey. Licensed Tennessee veterinarians and physicians engaged in clinical practice. A survey was mailed in January 2010 to 454 licensed veterinarians and 1,737 licensed physicians. 181 of 419 (43.20%) eligible veterinarians and 201 of 1,376 (14.61%) eligible physicians responded to the survey. A majority of both veterinarians (131/179 [73.18%]) and physicians (97/192 [50.52%]) indicated that veterinarians should always or almost always be involved in advising clients with HIV infection or AIDS. The majority of veterinarians (120/173 [69.36%]) indicated they always or almost always discussed with clients the potential risk to immune-compromised persons after diagnosing a zoonosis. A high proportion (88/94 [93.62%]) of physicians indicated they never or rarely initiated discussions about zoonoses with patients with HIV infection or AIDS. All physicians (94/94 [100%]) indicated they never or rarely contacted veterinarians for advice on zoonoses. Similarly, 174 of 180 (96.76%) veterinarians had never or rarely contacted physicians for advice on zoonoses risks. Only 25.97% of veterinarians and 33.33% of physicians were correctly able to identify zoonotic pathogens of greatest concern to people with HIV infection or AIDS. We identified several implications for veterinary medical and medical practice that may reduce zoonoses transmission risks for people with HIV infection or AIDS, including increased communication between veterinarians and physicians, increased communication between people with HIV infection or AIDS and health-care providers, increased availability of client educational materials, and increased participation in zoonoses continuing education opportunities by health-care providers.

Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

Objective fall risk detection in stroke survivors using wearable sensor technology: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Taylor-Piliae, Ruth E; Mohler, M Jane; Najafi, Bijan; Coull, Bruce M

2016-12-01

Stroke survivors often have persistent neural deficits related to motor function and sensation, which increase their risk of falling, most of which occurs at home or in community settings. The use of wearable technology to monitor fall risk and gait in stroke survivors may prove useful in enhancing recovery and/or preventing injuries. Determine the feasibility of using wearable technology (PAMSys™) to objectively monitor fall risk and gait in home and community settings in stroke survivors. In this feasibility study, we used the PAMSys to identify fall risk indicators (postural transitions: duration in seconds, and number of unsuccessful attempts), and gait (steps, speed, duration) for 48 hours during usual daily activities in stroke survivors (n = 10) compared to age-matched controls (n = 10). A questionnaire assessed device acceptability. Stroke survivors mean age was 70 ± 8 years old, were mainly Caucasian (60%) women (70%), and not significantly different than the age-matched controls (all P-values >0.20). Stroke survivors (100%) reported that the device was comfortable to wear, didn't interfere with everyday activities, and were willing to wear it for another 48 hours. None reported any difficulty with the device while sleeping, removing/putting back on for showering or changing clothes. When compared to controls, stroke survivors had significantly worse fall risk indicators and walked less (P < 0.05). Stroke survivors reported high acceptability of 48 hours of continuous PAMSys monitoring. The use of in-home wearable technology may prove useful in monitoring fall risk and gait in stroke survivors, potentially enhancing recovery.

The continuity and duration of depression and its relationship to non-suicidal self-harm and suicidal ideation and behavior in adolescents 12-17.

PubMed

Zubrick, Stephen R; Hafekost, Jennifer; Johnson, Sarah E; Sawyer, Michael G; Patton, George; Lawrence, David

2017-10-01

There is a significant overlap between non-suicidal self-harm and suicidal ideation and behavior in young people with both symptom continuity and symptom duration implicated in this association. A population sample of Australian 12-17 year olds. Interviewers collected measures for DSM disorders, symptom duration and continuity, and background information from their parents, while young people self-reported symptoms of depression, non-suicidal self-harm and suicidal ideation and behaviors. This report focusses on the 265 young people who met the DSM criteria for Major Depressive Disorder based on their own self-reports. Relative to young people who had at least one period 2 months or longer without symptoms since first onset, young people who had the continuous presence of depressive symptoms since their first onset had significantly higher odds for life-time self-harm, 12-month self-harm, multiple self-harm, suicidal ideation and suicide attempt within the past 12 months. The duration of depressive symptoms and the continuity of these symptoms each independently contribute to elevating the risks of non-suicidal self-harming and suicidal ideation and behaviors. Reliance on self-report from the young people and time constraints prohibiting administering diagnostic modules other than the Major Depressive Disorder and estimating self-reported co-morbidity. Among young people with a Major Depressive Disorder, self-reports about duration of depressive symptoms as well as the continuity of symptoms, each independently contributes to elevated risks of non-suicidal self-harming and suicidal ideation and behaviors. As well, un-remitting as opposed to episodic symptoms in this group of young people are common and are a powerful indicator of suffering associated with both self-harm and suicidal behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

QT variability strongly predicts sudden cardiac death in asymptomatic subjects with mild or moderate left ventricular systolic dysfunction: a prospective study.

PubMed

Piccirillo, Gianfranco; Magrì, Damiano; Matera, Sabrina; Magnanti, Marzia; Torrini, Alessia; Pasquazzi, Eleonora; Schifano, Erika; Velitti, Stefania; Marigliano, Vincenzo; Quaglione, Raffaele; Barillà, Francesco

2007-06-01

The most widely accepted marker for stratifying the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in post myocardial infarction patients is a depressed left ventricular function. Left ventricular ejection fractions (EF) of 35% or less increase the risk of sudden death but values between 35 and 40% raise concern. The underlying pathophysiological mechanism is sustained ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation, both associated with increased cardiac repolarization variability. We assessed whether the indices of QT variability from a short-term electrocardiographic (ECG) recording predict sudden death. A total of 396 subjects with chronic heart failure (CHF) due to post-ischaemic cardiomyopathy, with an EF between 35 and 40% and in NYHA class I, underwent a 5 min ECG recording to calculate the following variables: QT variance (QT(v)), QT normalized for the square of the mean QT (QTVN), and QT variability index (QTVI). Corrected QT (QT(c)) was calculated from a 12-lead ECG recording. All participants were followed for 5 years. A multivariable survival model indicated that a QTVI greater than or equal to the 80th percentile indicated a high risk of SCD [hazards ratio (HR) 4.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-13.4, P = 0.006] and, though to a lesser extent, a high risk of total mortality (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.9, P = 0.017). The model including QTVI as a continuous variable confirmed a similar high risk for SCD (HR 2.9, 95% CI 1.3-6.5, P = 0.01) and for total mortality (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.2, P = 0.008). Although asymptomatic patients with CHF who have a slightly depressed EF are at low risk of sudden death, the category is extraordinarily numerous. The QTVI could be helpful in stratifying the risk of sudden death in this otherwise undertreated population.

75 FR 20717 - Federal Housing Administration: Continuation of FHA Reform; Strengthening Risk Management Through...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-20

... Administration: Continuation of FHA Reform; Strengthening Risk Management Through Responsible FHA-Approved...) that are designed to strengthen FHA by improving its management of risk. This final rule increases the... designed to enhance FHA's risk management functions. The announcement preceded completion of an independent...

World Health Organization (WHO) infant and young child feeding indicators: associations with growth measures in 14 low-income countries.

PubMed

Marriott, Bernadette P; White, Alan; Hadden, Louise; Davies, Jayne C; Wallingford, John C

2012-07-01

Eight World Health Organization (WHO) feeding indicators (FIs) and Demographic and Health Survey data for children <24 months were used to assess the relationship of child feeding with stunting and underweight in 14 poor countries. Also assessed were the correlations of FI with country gross national income (GNI). Prevalence of underweight and stunting increased with age and ≥ 50% of 12-23-month children were stunted. About 66% of babies received solids by sixth to eighth months; 91% were still breastfeeding through months 12-15. Approximately half of the children were fed with complementary foods at the recommended daily frequency, but <25% met food diversity recommendations. GNI was negatively correlated with a breastfeeding index (P < 0.01) but not with other age-appropriate FI. Regression modelling indicated a significant association between early initiation of breastfeeding and a reduction in risk of underweight (P < 0.05), but a higher risk of underweight for continued breastfeeding at 12-15 months (P < 0.001). For infants 6-8 months, consumption of solid foods was associated with significantly lower risk of both stunting and underweight (P < 0.001), as was meeting WHO guidance for minimum acceptable diet, iron-rich foods (IRF) and dietary diversity (P < 0.001); desired feeding frequency was only associated with lower risk of underweight (P < 0.05). Timely solid food introduction, dietary diversity and IRF were associated with reduced probability of underweight and stunting that was further associated with maternal education (P < 0.001). These results identify FI associated with growth and reinforce maternal education as a variable to reduce risk of underweight and stunting in poor countries. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Initial Steps to inform selection of continuation cognitive therapy or fluoxetine for higher risk responders to cognitive therapy for recurrent major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Vittengl, Jeffrey R; Anna Clark, Lee; Thase, Michael E; Jarrett, Robin B

2017-07-01

Responders to acute-phase cognitive therapy (A-CT) for major depressive disorder (MDD) often relapse or recur, but continuation-phase cognitive therapy (C-CT) or fluoxetine reduces risks for some patients. We tested composite moderators of C-CT versus fluoxetine's preventive effects to inform continuation treatment selection. Responders to A-CT for MDD judged to be at higher risk for relapse due to unstable or partial remission (N=172) were randomized to 8 months of C-CT or fluoxetine with clinical management and assessed, free from protocol treatment, for 24 additional months. Pre-continuation-treatment characteristics that in survival analyses moderated treatments' effects on relapse over 8 months of continuation-phase treatment (residual symptoms and negative temperament) and on relapse/recurrence over the full observation period's 32 months (residual symptoms and age) were combined to estimate the potential advantage of C-CT versus fluoxetine for individual patients. Assigning patients to optimal continuation treatment (i.e., to C-CT or fluoxetine, depending on patients' pre-continuation-treatment characteristics) resulted in absolute reduction of relapse or recurrence risk by 16-21% compared to the other non-optimal treatment. Although these novel results require replication before clinical application, selecting optimal continuation treatment (i.e., personalizing treatment) for higher risk A-CT responders may decrease risks of MDD relapse and recurrence substantively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Fate of Primary Nonrefluxing Megaureter: A Prospective Outcome Analysis of the Rate of Urinary Tract Infections, Surgical Indications and Time to Resolution.

PubMed

Braga, Luis H; D'Cruz, Jennifer; Rickard, Mandy; Jegatheeswaran, Kizanee; Lorenzo, Armando J

2016-04-01

We examined data on a cohort of patients with primary nonrefluxing megaureter to determine risk factors for febrile urinary tract infection, indications for surgery and time to resolution. The records of patients younger than 24 months with primary nonrefluxing megaureter were prospectively captured from 2008 to 2015. Six a priori defined variables were studied, including gender, circumcision status, hydronephrosis SFU (Society for Fetal Urology) grade (low--1 and 2 vs high--3 and 4), continuous antibiotic prophylaxis use, ureteral dilatation (greater than 11 mm) and tortuosity. Univariate analyses and Cox hazard regression were done for febrile urinary tract infection risk factors. Resolution trends were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Mean ± SD age at the first clinic visit was 3.7 ± 4 months and mean followup was 26.3 ± 16.6 months. Of 80 patients with primary megaureter 66 (83%) had high grade hydronephrosis, 72 (90%) were male, 21 (26%) were circumcised and 40 (50%) had ureteral dilatation greater than 11 mm at baseline. Overall continuous antibiotic prophylaxis was prescribed to 34 patients (43%) and febrile urinary tract developed infection in 27 (34%) at a mean age of 5.8 months (median 3, range 1 to 24). Cox regression identified uncircumcised male gender (HR 3.4, 95% CI 1.1-10.7, p = 0.04) and lack of continuous antibiotic prophylaxis (HR 4.1, 95% CI 1.3-12.7, p = 0.01) as independent risk factors for febrile urinary tract infection. The 19 surgical patients (24%) had a larger mean ureteral diameter immediately preoperatively than those who did not require surgery (17 ± 5 vs 12 ± 4 mm, p <0.01). Kaplan-Meier curves showed that 85% of primary nonrefluxing megaureters that did not require surgery resolved in a median of 17 months. Febrile urinary tract infection developed in 34% of patients with primary nonrefluxing megaureter within the first 6 months of life. Circumcision and continuous antibiotic prophylaxis significantly decreased febrile urinary tract infection rates in those infants. Ureteral diameter 17 mm or greater was significantly associated with a higher rate of surgical intervention. Overall 76% of megaureters resolved during a median followup of 19 months. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do as I say: contradicting beliefs and attitudes towards sports concussion in Australia.

PubMed

Pearce, Alan J; Young, Janet A; Parrington, Lucy; Aimers, Nicole

2017-10-01

The objective of this study was to explore beliefs and attitudes of students studying exercise science in Australia towards sports concussion. A secondary objective explored differences between gender and previous experience of concussion. A total of 312 participants (m = 217; f = 95) responded to a series of statements ranging across a number of areas including personal attitudes and beliefs towards concussion: if they would risk playing with a concussion; their views on elite/professional athletes who continue to play after a concussion; and attitudes towards rehabilitation. Overall, attitudes revealed that it was not safe to play with a concussion, and it was believed that those who have had repeated concussions would be likely to suffer problems later in life. However, responses also indicated that they would risk playing with a concussion, and admired elite athletes who continued to play. When controlling for gender and previous concussions, males and those who sustained a previous concussion/s were more likely to continue playing. Conversely, females were more likely to complete rehabilitation prior to returning to sport. This study demonstrates in an Australian student cohort studying for a career in exercise and sports science, disparity between beliefs and attitudes regarding sports concussion.

Quantifying temporal glucose variability in diabetes via continuous glucose monitoring: mathematical methods and clinical application.

PubMed

Kovatchev, Boris P; Clarke, William L; Breton, Marc; Brayman, Kenneth; McCall, Anthony

2005-12-01

Continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) collect detailed blood glucose (BG) time series, which carry significant information about the dynamics of BG fluctuations. In contrast, the methods for analysis of CGM data remain those developed for infrequent BG self-monitoring. As a result, important information about the temporal structure of the data is lost during the translation of raw sensor readings into clinically interpretable statistics and images. The following mathematical methods are introduced into the field of CGM data interpretation: (1) analysis of BG rate of change; (2) risk analysis using previously reported Low/High BG Indices and Poincare (lag) plot of risk associated with temporal BG variability; and (3) spatial aggregation of the process of BG fluctuations and its Markov chain visualization. The clinical application of these methods is illustrated by analysis of data of a patient with Type 1 diabetes mellitus who underwent islet transplantation and with data from clinical trials. Normative data [12,025 reference (YSI device, Yellow Springs Instruments, Yellow Springs, OH) BG determinations] in patients with Type 1 diabetes mellitus who underwent insulin and glucose challenges suggest that the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals of BG rate of change that could be maximally sustained over 15-30 min are [-2,2], [-3,3], and [-4,4] mg/dL/min, respectively. BG dynamics and risk parameters clearly differentiated the stages of transplantation and the effects of medication. Aspects of treatment were clearly visualized by graphs of BG rate of change and Low/High BG Indices, by a Poincare plot of risk for rapid BG fluctuations, and by a plot of the aggregated Markov process. Advanced analysis and visualization of CGM data allow for evaluation of dynamical characteristics of diabetes and reveal clinical information that is inaccessible via standard statistics, which do not take into account the temporal structure of the data. The use of such methods improves the assessment of patients' glycemic control.

Examining the effectiveness of home-based parent aide services to reduce risk for physical child abuse and neglect: six-month findings from a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Guterman, Neil B; Tabone, Jiyoung K; Bryan, George M; Taylor, Catherine A; Napoleon-Hanger, Cynthia; Banman, Aaron

2013-08-01

This study set out to carry out a feasible, real-world, randomized clinical trial to examine the benefits of home-based paraprofessional parent aide services in reducing physical abuse and neglect risk in high-risk parents. Families were randomly assigned to receive either parent aide plus case management services (n = 73) or case management services only (n = 65), collecting in-home data on physical child abuse and neglect and proximal risk and protective factors, just prior to service initiation, and again after six months of services. Mothers receiving parent aide and case management services reported significant improvements from baseline to six-month follow-up in self-reported indicators of physical child abuse risk, as well as improvements on parental stress, mastery, depression, and anxiety, whereas mothers receiving only case management services did not. The slopes of such observed changes across groups, however, were not found to be statistically significantly different. No discernable improvements were found with regard to indicators of risk for child neglect. As the first randomized clinical trial examining the effectiveness of parent aide services, this study provides the first controlled evidence examining the potential benefits of this service modality. This study suggests promising trends regarding the benefit of parent aide services with respect to physical child abuse risk reduction and related predictors, but evidence does not appear to suggest that such services, as they are presently delivered, reduce child neglect. These findings support the continued use of parent aide services in cases of physical child abuse and also suggest careful consideration of the ways such services may be better configured to extend their impact, particularly with respect to child neglect risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Defining a Contemporary Ischemic Heart Disease Genetic Risk Profile Using Historical Data.

PubMed

Mosley, Jonathan D; van Driest, Sara L; Wells, Quinn S; Shaffer, Christian M; Edwards, Todd L; Bastarache, Lisa; McCarty, Catherine A; Thompson, Will; Chute, Christopher G; Jarvik, Gail P; Crosslin, David R; Larson, Eric B; Kullo, Iftikhar J; Pacheco, Jennifer A; Peissig, Peggy L; Brilliant, Murray H; Linneman, James G; Denny, Josh C; Roden, Dan M

2016-12-01

Continued reductions in morbidity and mortality attributable to ischemic heart disease (IHD) require an understanding of the changing epidemiology of this disease. We hypothesized that we could use genetic correlations, which quantify the shared genetic architectures of phenotype pairs and extant risk factors from a historical prospective study to define the risk profile of a contemporary IHD phenotype. We used 37 phenotypes measured in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; n=7716, European ancestry subjects) and clinical diagnoses from an electronic health record (EHR) data set (n=19 093). All subjects had genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism genotyping. We measured pairwise genetic correlations (rG) between the ARIC and EHR phenotypes using linear mixed models. The genetic correlation estimates between the ARIC risk factors and the EHR IHD were modestly linearly correlated with hazards ratio estimates for incident IHD in ARIC (Pearson correlation [r]=0.62), indicating that the 2 IHD phenotypes had differing risk profiles. For comparison, this correlation was 0.80 when comparing EHR and ARIC type 2 diabetes mellitus phenotypes. The EHR IHD phenotype was most strongly correlated with ARIC metabolic phenotypes, including total:high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (rG=-0.44, P=0.005), high-density lipoprotein (rG=-0.48, P=0.005), systolic blood pressure (rG=0.44, P=0.02), and triglycerides (rG=0.38, P=0.02). EHR phenotypes related to type 2 diabetes mellitus, atherosclerotic, and hypertensive diseases were also genetically correlated with these ARIC risk factors. The EHR IHD risk profile differed from ARIC and indicates that treatment and prevention efforts in this population should target hypertensive and metabolic disease. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Childhood Adversities Increase the Risk of Psychosis: A Meta-analysis of Patient-Control, Prospective- and Cross-sectional Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Varese, Filippo; Smeets, Feikje; Drukker, Marjan; Lieverse, Ritsaert; Lataster, Tineke; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Read, John; van Os, Jim; Bentall, Richard P.

2012-01-01

Evidence suggests that adverse experiences in childhood are associated with psychosis. To examine the association between childhood adversity and trauma (sexual abuse, physical abuse, emotional/psychological abuse, neglect, parental death, and bullying) and psychosis outcome, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, and Web of Science were searched from January 1980 through November 2011. We included prospective cohort studies, large-scale cross-sectional studies investigating the association between childhood adversity and psychotic symptoms or illness, case-control studies comparing the prevalence of adverse events between psychotic patients and controls using dichotomous or continuous measures, and case-control studies comparing the prevalence of psychotic symptoms between exposed and nonexposed subjects using dichotomous or continuous measures of adversity and psychosis. The analysis included 18 case-control studies (n = 2048 psychotic patients and 1856 nonpsychiatric controls), 10 prospective and quasi-prospective studies (n = 41 803) and 8 population-based cross-sectional studies (n = 35 546). There were significant associations between adversity and psychosis across all research designs, with an overall effect of OR = 2.78 (95% CI = 2.34–3.31). The integration of the case-control studies indicated that patients with psychosis were 2.72 times more likely to have been exposed to childhood adversity than controls (95% CI = 1.90–3.88). The association between childhood adversity and psychosis was also significant in population-based cross-sectional studies (OR = 2.99 [95% CI = 2.12–4.20]) as well as in prospective and quasi-prospective studies (OR = 2.75 [95% CI = 2.17–3.47]). The estimated population attributable risk was 33% (16%–47%). These findings indicate that childhood adversity is strongly associated with increased risk for psychosis. PMID:22461484

Association of Serum Vitamin D with the Risk of Incident Dementia and Subclinical Indices of Brain Aging: The Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Karakis, Ioannis; Pase, Matthew P; Beiser, Alexa; Booth, Sarah L; Jacques, Paul F; Rogers, Gail; DeCarli, Charles; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Wang, Thomas J; Himali, Jayandra J; Annweiler, Cedric; Seshadri, Sudha

2016-01-01

Identifying nutrition- and lifestyle-based risk factors for cognitive impairment and dementia may aid future primary prevention efforts. We aimed to examine the association of serum vitamin D levels with incident all-cause dementia, clinically characterized Alzheimer's disease (AD), MRI markers of brain aging, and neuropsychological function. Framingham Heart Study participants had baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations measured between 1986 and 2001. Vitamin D status was considered both as a continuous variable and dichotomized as deficient (<10 ng/mL), or at the cohort-specific 20th and 80th percentiles. Vitamin D was related to the 9-year risk of incident dementia (n = 1663), multiple neuropsychological tests (n = 1291) and MRI markers of brain volume, white matter hyperintensities and silent cerebral infarcts (n = 1139). In adjusted models, participants with vitamin D deficiency (n = 104, 8% of the cognitive sample) displayed poorer performance on Trail Making B-A (β= -0.03 to -0.05±0.02) and the Hooper Visual Organization Test (β= -0.09 to -0.12±0.05), indicating poorer executive function, processing speed, and visuo-perceptual skills. These associations remained when vitamin D was examined as a continuous variable or dichotomized at the cohort specific 20th percentile. Vitamin D deficiency was also associated with lower hippocampal volumes (β= -0.01±0.01) but not total brain volume, white matter hyperintensities, or silent brain infarcts. No association was found between vitamin D deficiency and incident all-cause dementia or clinically characterized AD. In this large community-based sample, low 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with smaller hippocampal volume and poorer neuropsychological function.

Predictors of Mortality in the Critically Ill Cirrhotic Patient: Is the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Enough?

PubMed

Annamalai, Alagappan; Harada, Megan Y; Chen, Melissa; Tran, Tram; Ko, Ara; Ley, Eric J; Nuno, Miriam; Klein, Andrew; Nissen, Nicholas; Noureddin, Mazen

2017-03-01

Critically ill cirrhotics require liver transplantation urgently, but are at high risk for perioperative mortality. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, recently updated to incorporate serum sodium, estimates survival probability in patients with cirrhosis, but needs additional evaluation in the critically ill. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of ICU admission MELD scores and identify clinical risk factors associated with increased mortality. This was a retrospective review of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU between January 2011 and December 2014. Patients who were discharged or underwent transplantation (survivors) were compared with those who died (nonsurvivors). Demographic characteristics, admission MELD scores, and clinical risk factors were recorded. Multivariate regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality, and measures of model performance were assessed to determine predictive accuracy. Of 276 patients who met inclusion criteria, 153 were considered survivors and 123 were nonsurvivors. Survivor and nonsurvivor cohorts had similar demographic characteristics. Nonsurvivors had increased MELD, gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, mechanical ventilation, encephalopathy, vasopressors, dialysis, renal replacement therapy, requirement of blood products, and ICU length of stay. The MELD demonstrated low predictive power (c-statistic 0.73). Multivariate analysis identified MELD score (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.05), mechanical ventilation (AOR = 4.55), vasopressors (AOR = 3.87), and continuous renal replacement therapy (AOR = 2.43) as independent predictors of mortality, with stronger predictive accuracy (c-statistic 0.87). The MELD demonstrated relatively poor predictive accuracy in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and might not be the best indicator for prognosis in the ICU population. Prognostic accuracy is significantly improved when variables indicating organ support (mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, and continuous renal replacement therapy) are included in the model. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Pediatric oncology survivorship: conveying risks and communicating information at the right time for the individual.

PubMed

McCarthy, Maria C; Campo, Monica; Drew, Sarah E

2013-09-01

To summarize and discuss recent research (2011-2013) examining the communication needs of childhood cancer survivors with respect to long-term health risks and considering the developmental needs of children, adolescents and young adults. Survivors' levels of awareness of ongoing health risks are low, indicating that clinical strategies for communicating risks and empowering young people as active partners in their own healthcare are lacking. Research examining the information needs of very young survivors is sparse. Adolescent and young adults may be particularly vulnerable given their lack of health-risk knowledge combined with expected developmental risk-taking behaviors. Strategies to manage individual information preferences of survivors are required, along with strategies to manage the triadic (child, parent, health professional) nature of communications. Internet technologies offer an important mechanism for communication of health risks to survivors, families and primary healthcare providers. International efforts must continue to articulate systematic yet flexible approaches to communication with children, adolescents and young adults that can be applied across the cancer treatment continuum and into surveillance and long-term survivorship. Information and communication needs of this population are complex and reliance on age as a proxy for capacity to participate in healthcare communication is inadequate.

Retrievable vena cava filters in trauma patients for high-risk prophylaxis and prevention of pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Allen, Todd L; Carter, Jody L; Morris, Brad J; Harker, Colleen P; Stevens, Mark H

2005-06-01

Venous thromboembolic (VTE) disease remains a significant cause of morbidity for trauma patients because many patients have injuries that may preclude effective VTE prevention and treatment. Retrievable vena cava filters may prove beneficial in this subset of trauma patients. Trauma patients at risk for VTE were identified and managed by institutional protocol. Patients who required a vena cava filter were managed with a device that could be retrieved or left in situ. A retrospective review of medical records was used to identify the use, indications, and complications associated with a retrievable filter. Fifty-three retrievable filters were placed in 51 patients. Two of these patients received a second filter, and 1 received a filter in the superior vena cava. Thirty-two filters were placed prophylactically, whereas 21 were placed for demonstrated venous thromboembolism (VTE). Retrieval was successful in 24 of 25 attempts. Twenty-nine filters became permanent: 10 for continued contraindications to anticoagulation without known VTE, 12 for known VTE and continued contraindications to anticoagulation, 1 for technical reasons, and 6 because of patient death. There were no complications of bleeding, device migration or thrombosis, infection, or pulmonary embolism. A retrievable vena cava filter appears safe and effective for the prevention of pulmonary embolism in the high-risk trauma patient who cannot receive anticoagulation.

Examination of the relation between periodontal health status and cardiovascular risk factors: serum total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and plasma fibrinogen.

PubMed

Wu, T; Trevisan, M; Genco, R J; Falkner, K L; Dorn, J P; Sempos, C T

2000-02-01

Using data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994), the authors examined the relation between periodontal health and cardiovascular risk factors: serum total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and plasma fibrinogen. A total of 10,146 participants were included in the analyses of cholesterol and C-reactive protein and 4,461 in the analyses of fibrinogen. Periodontal health indicators included the gingival bleeding index, calculus index, and periodontal disease status (defined by pocket depth and attachment loss). While cholesterol and fibrinogen were analyzed as continuous variables, C-reactive protein was dichotomized into two levels. The results show a significant relation between indicators of poor periodontal status and increased C-reactive protein and fibrinogen. The association between periodontal status and total cholesterol level is much weaker. No consistent association between periodontal status and high density lipoprotein cholesterol was detectable. Similar patterns of association were observed for participants aged 17-54 years and those 55 years and older. In conclusion, this study suggests that total cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen are possible intermediate factors that may link periodontal disease to elevated cardiovascular risk.

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Safety Management System FY 2016 Effectiveness Review and Declaration Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunt, Farren J.

Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) Integrated Safety Management System (ISMS) effectiveness review of fiscal year (FY) 2016 shows that INL has integrated management programs and safety elements throughout the oversight and operational activities performed at INL. The significant maturity of Contractor Assurance System (CAS) processes, as demonstrated across INL’s management systems and periodic reporting through the Management Review Meeting process, over the past two years has provided INL with current real-time understanding and knowledge pertaining to the health of the institution. INL’s sustained excellence of the Integrated Safety and effective implementation of the Worker Safety and Health Program is also evidencedmore » by other external validations and key indicators. In particular, external validations include VPP, ISO 14001, DOELAP accreditation, and key Laboratory level indicators such as ORPS (number, event frequency and severity); injury/illness indicators such as Days Away, Restricted and Transfer (DART) case rate, back & shoulder metric and open reporting indicators, demonstrate a continuous positive trend and therefore improved operational performance over the last few years. These indicators are also reflective of the Laboratory’s overall organizational and safety culture improvement. Notably, there has also been a step change in ESH&Q Leadership actions that have been recognized both locally and complex-wide. Notwithstanding, Laboratory management continues to monitor and take action on lower level negative trends in numerous areas including: Conduct of Operations, Work Control, Work Site Analysis, Risk Assessment, LO/TO, Fire Protection, and Life Safety Systems, to mention a few. While the number of severe injury cases has decreased, as evidenced by the reduction in the DART case rate, the two hand injuries and the fire truck/ambulance accident were of particular concern. Aggressive actions continue in order to understand the causes and define actions needed to prevent similar injuries and accidents in the future. While our injury rate is not where we want it to be, it is not the only indicator that defines our ISMS program, safety culture, and efforts to be a continuous learning organization. When reviewing the entire year’s performance, and all areas that integrate ISMS principles and core functions, INL has an “effective” ISMS program that is continually improving.« less

Comparative Efficacy and Durability of Continuation Phase Cognitive Therapy for Preventing Recurrent Depression: Design of a Double-Blinded, Fluoxetine- and Pill-Placebo–Controlled, Randomized Trial with 2-Year Follow-up

PubMed Central

Thase, Michael E.

2010-01-01

Background Major depressive disorder (MDD) is highly prevalent and associated with disability and chronicity. Although cognitive therapy (CT) is an effective short-term treatment for MDD, a significant proportion of responders subsequently suffer relapses or recurrences. Purpose This design prospectively evaluates: 1) a method to discriminate CT-treated responders at lower versus higher risk for relapse; and 2) the subsequent durability of 8-month continuation phase therapies in randomized higher risk responders followed for an additional 24-months. The primary prediction is: after protocol treatments are stopped, higher risk patients randomly assigned to continuation phase CT (C-CT) will have a lower risk of relapse/recurrence than those randomized to fluoxetine (FLX). Methods Outpatients, aged 18 to 70 years, with recurrent MDD received 12–14 weeks of CT provided by 15 experienced therapists from two sites. Responders (i.e., no MDD and 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression ≤ 12) were stratified into higher and lower risk groups based on stability of remission during the last 6 weeks of CT. The lower risk group entered follow-up for 32 months; the higher risk group was randomized to 8 months of continuation phase therapy with either C-CT or clinical management plus either double-blinded FLX or pill placebo. Following the continuation phase, higher risk patients were followed by blinded evaluators for 24 months. Results The trial began in 2000. Enrollment is complete (N=523). The follow-up continues. Conclusions The trial evaluates the preventive effects and durability of acute and continuation phase treatments in the largest known sample of CT responders collected worldwide. PMID:20451668

Anomalous High Rainfall and Soil Saturation as Combined Risk Indicator of Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks, South Africa, 2008–2011

PubMed Central

Malherbe, Johan; Weepener, Harold; Majiwa, Phelix; Swanepoel, Robert

2016-01-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic vectorborne viral disease, causes loss of life among humans and livestock and an adverse effect on the economy of affected countries. Vaccination is the most effective way to protect livestock; however, during protracted interepidemic periods, farmers discontinue vaccination, which leads to loss of herd immunity and heavy losses of livestock when subsequent outbreaks occur. Retrospective analysis of the 2008–2011 RVF epidemics in South Africa revealed a pattern of continuous and widespread seasonal rainfall causing substantial soil saturation followed by explicit rainfall events that flooded dambos (seasonally flooded depressions), triggering outbreaks of disease. Incorporation of rainfall and soil saturation data into a prediction model for major outbreaks of RVF resulted in the correctly identified risk in nearly 90% of instances at least 1 month before outbreaks occurred; all indications are that irrigation is of major importance in the remaining 10% of outbreaks. PMID:27403563

Key goals and indicators for successful aging of adults with early-onset disability.

PubMed

LaPlante, Mitchell P

2014-01-01

Substantial improvements have occurred in the longevity of several groups of individuals with early-onset disabilities, with many now surviving to advanced ages. This paper estimates the population of adults aging with early-onset disabilities at 12-15 million persons. Key goals for the successful aging of adults with early-onset disabilities are discussed, emphasizing reduction in risks for aging-related chronic disease and secondary conditions, while promoting social participation and independence. However, indicators suggest that elevated risk factors for aging-related chronic diseases, including smoking, obesity, and inactivity, as well as barriers to prevention and the diminished social and economic situation of adults with disabilities are continuing impediments to successful aging that must be addressed. Increased provider awareness that people with early-onset disabilities are aging and can age successfully and the integration of disability and aging services systems are transformative steps that will help adults with early-onset disability to age more successfully. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Borderline Personality Disorder Symptom Severity and Sexually Transmitted Infection and HIV Risk in African American Incarcerated Men.

PubMed

Scheidell, Joy D; Lejuez, Carl W; Golin, Carol E; Hobbs, Marcia M; Wohl, David A; Adimora, Adaora A; Khan, Maria R

2016-05-01

Sexually transmitted infections (STI)/HIV rates are disproportionately high among men involved in the criminal justice system. Mental health disorders, including personality disorders, are also elevated among inmates. Borderline personality disorder (BPD) may be an important risk factor for STI/HIV, yet remains relatively understudied, particularly among inmates. We used baseline data from Project DISRUPT, a cohort study of African American men being released from prison in North Carolina who were in heterosexual relationships at prison entry (n=189), to assess their STI/HIV risk in the 6 months before incarceration and BPD symptoms focused on emotional lability and relationship dysfunction. We created a continuous BPD symptom severity score and a dichotomous BPD indicator split at the top quartile of the score (BPD-TQ) to examine associations between BPD and STI/HIV outcomes using logistic regression. We also examined associations between individual symptoms and outcomes. After adjustment for sociodemographics and antisocial personality disorder, BPD-TQ was associated with sexual risk behaviors including multiple partnerships (adjusted odds ratio, 2.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-5.36) and sex with nonmonogamous partners (adjusted odds ratio, 2.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-5.51). Prevalence of previous STI (47.5% vs. 29.6%) and prevalent chlamydial infection (6.9% vs. 3.1%) seemed higher in those in BPD-TQ, although the associations were not statistically significant. Associations were similar to those with the continuous score. Borderline personality disorder symptoms most associated with STI/HIV risk were abandonment worry, mood swings, and shifts in opinions. Borderline personality disorder is strongly associated with STI/HIV risk in this sample. Researchers should further evaluate the relationship between STI/HIV and BPD, in addition to mood disorders.

Sleep problems across development: a pathway to adolescent risk taking through working memory.

PubMed

Thomas, April Gile; Monahan, Kathryn C; Lukowski, Angela F; Cauffman, Elizabeth

2015-02-01

Problematic sleep can be detrimental to the development of important cognitive functions, such as working memory, and may have the potential for negative behavioral consequences, such as risk-taking. In this way, sleep problems may be particularly harmful for youth-whose cognitive abilities are still developing and who are more susceptible to risky behavior. Using data from a large, national, longitudinal study, continuity and change in sleep problems were examined from 2 to 15 years of age and associated with deficits in working memory at age 15 and risk taking behaviors at age 18. Participants (N = 1,364 children; 48.3% female) were assessed for sleep problems (parent-report), working memory (behavioral task), and risk taking behavior (youth self-report). The sample was predominantly White (80.4%); additional races represented in the sample included Black/African American (12.9%), Asian/Pacific Islander (1.6%), American Indian/Eskimo/Aleut (.4%), and Other (4.7%). The findings suggest that sleep problems are likely to cascade across development, with sleep problems demonstrating continuity from infancy to early childhood, early childhood to middle childhood, and middle childhood to adolescence. Although sleep problems in infancy, early childhood, and middle childhood were not directly related to adolescent working memory, sleep problems during adolescence were associated with poorer adolescent working memory. In turn, these deficits in working memory were related to greater risk taking in late adolescence. In summary, the present results suggest that sleep problems in earlier periods are indicative of risk for sleep problems later in development, but that sleep problems in adolescence contribute uniquely to deficits in working memory that, in turn, lead to risky behavior during late adolescence.

Body mass index and cardiovascular disease in the Asia-Pacific Region: an overview of 33 cohorts involving 310 000 participants.

PubMed

Ni Mhurchu, C; Rodgers, A; Pan, W H; Gu, D F; Woodward, M

2004-08-01

Few prospective data from the Asia-Pacific region are available relating body mass index (BMI) to the risks of stroke and ischaemic heart disease (IHD). Our objective was to assess the age-, sex-, and region-specific associations of BMI with cardiovascular disease using individual participant data from prospective studies in the Asia-Pacific region. Studies were identified from literature searches, proceedings of meetings, and personal communication. All studies had at least 5000 person-years of follow-up. Hazard ratios were calculated from Cox models, stratified by sex and cohort, and adjusted for age at risk and smoking. The first 3 years of follow-up were excluded in order to reduce confounding due to disease at baseline. A total of 33 cohort studies, including 310 283 participants, contributed 2 148 354 person-years of follow-up, during which 3332 stroke and 2073 IHD events were observed. There were continuous positive associations between baseline BMI and the risks of ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, and IHD, with each 2 kg/m(2) lower BMI associated a 12% (95% CI: 9, 15%) lower risk of ischaemic stroke, 8% (95% CI: 4, 12%) lower risk in haemorrhagic stroke, and 11% (95% CI: 9, 13%) lower risk of IHD. The strengths of all associations were strongly age dependent, and there was no significant difference between Asian and Australasian cohorts. This overview provides the most reliable estimates to date of the associations between BMI and cardiovascular disease in the Asia-Pacific region, and the first direct comparisons within the region. Continuous relationships of approximately equal strength are evident in both Asian and Australasian populations. These results indicate considerable potential for cardiovascular disease reduction with population-wide lowering of BMI.

What is safety?: Miracles, benefit-risk assessments, and the "right to try".

PubMed

DeTora, Lisa M

2017-07-01

Public discourse is full of quick solutions to health care problems like cancer and rare diseases. Among these is Right to Try legislation for experimental therapies. Right to Try legislation is based on the premise that all experimental agents in clinical trials are safe and guaranteed to produce miracles. Unfortunately, this notion is at odds with expert understanding, which indicates that the benefits and risks of drug products can only be understood together and evaluated incrementally and over time. The current manuscript examines why benefit to risk considerations, a lynchpin of the ethical conduct of clinical research since the Nuremberg Code, might be easily elided from public discourse. This paper considers guidelines for regulatory writing, which routinely separate discussions of effectiveness and safety, as a possible source for some confusion. The internationally-accepted ICH M4E (Common Technical Document) guideline published in 2016 now provides additional guidance for composing Benefits and Risks Conclusions, which weigh and consider effectiveness and safety together. Yet fundamental differences in understanding the "safety" of medicinal products continue to exist between experts in biomedicine, politicians, and healthcare activists. Examining differences in the understanding of "safety" between experts and non-experts also may help explain the source for flawed logic about the safety of investigational products in Right To Try narratives. No drug product is 100% safe. Continuing to weigh benefits and risks together is an important intellectual practice necessary to safeguard human health worldwide, and testing clinical safety is the only way to provide meaningful protections to patients. Science, not miracles, can ensure the protection of patients in clinical research as well as clinical practice. Weighing benefits and risks is an essential intellectual act that informs public health. Science, not miracles, can guide this work. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Friends, sisters, and wives: Social support and social risks in peer relationships among men who have sex with men (MSM) in India

PubMed Central

Tomori, Cecilia; Srikrishnan, Aylur K.; Ridgeway, Kathleen; Solomon, Sunil S.; Mehta, Shruti H.; Solomon, Suniti; Celentano, David D.

2016-01-01

Globally men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk for HIV. Many HIV-prevention efforts rely on community outreach and mobilization to engage MSM. This study examines peer relationships and their potential role in HIV-prevention through 31 focus group discussions (FGDs) and 121 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with 363 MSM across 15 sites in India. Results indicate that MSM receive social support in friendships, sex-worker collaborations, constructed kin relationships, and romantic partnerships. Access to these relationships, however, is uneven across MSM, and can carry risks of disclosure of same-sex behavior and exclusion based on HIV-positive status. Positive peer relationships can serve as the basis of community empowerment, education and couple-based interventions for MSM, and peer counselors can also provide a buffer against the social risks of peer relationships and facilitate linkage to care and continued engagement in treatment. These insights can improve HIV-interventions for MSM in India and elsewhere. PMID:27459166

Stability in the drinking habits of older problem-drinkers recruited from nontreatment settings.

PubMed

Walton, M A; Mudd, S A; Blow, F C; Chermack, S T; Gomberg, E S

2000-03-01

Few prospective studies have examined older problem-drinkers not currently in treatment to determine the stability in alcohol problems over time. Seventy-eight currently drinking, older adults meeting a diagnosis of alcohol abuse or dependence were recruited via advertising to complete a health interview; 48 were reinterviewed approximately 3 years later. Participants were categorized based on alcohol consumption (risk) and alcohol-related diagnostic symptoms (problem) at baseline and follow-up. At follow-up, few older adults (11.4%) were resolved using both risk and problem criteria. Alcohol risk/problem groups were not significantly stable between baseline and follow-up. Health problems was the most common reason for changing drinking habits. Average and maximum consumption at baseline and follow-up were significant markers of follow-up risk group and follow-up alcohol-related consequences, respectively, with maximum consumption being more robust. The course of alcohol problems among older adults fluctuates over time, and heavy drinking appears to be the best indicator of problem continuation.

Distal & Proximal Influences on Men's Intentions to Resist Condoms: Alcohol, Sexual Aggression History, Impulsivity, and Social-Cognitive Factors

PubMed Central

Davis, Kelly Cue; Danube, Cinnamon L.; Neilson, Elizabeth C.; Stappenbeck, Cynthia A.; Norris, Jeanette; George, William H.; Kajumulo, Kelly F.

2015-01-01

Recent scientific evidence demonstrates that many young men commonly resist condom use with their female sex partners and that both alcohol intoxication and a history of sexual aggression may increase the risk of condom use resistance (CUR). Using a community sample of heterosexual male non-problem drinkers with elevated sexual risk (N=311), this alcohol administration study examined the direct and indirect effects of intoxication and sexual aggression history on men's CUR intentions through a sexual risk analogue. State impulsivity, CUR-related attitudes, and CUR-related self-efficacy were assessed as mediators. Results demonstrated that alcohol intoxication directly increased CUR intentions, and sexual aggression history both directly and indirectly increased CUR intentions. These findings highlight the importance of addressing both alcohol use and sexual aggression in risky sex prevention programs, as well as indicate the continued worth of research regarding the intersection of men's alcohol use, sexual aggression, and sexual risk behaviors, especially CUR. PMID:26156881

Mortality of workers at the Hanford site: 1945-1981

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilbert, E.S.; Petersen, G.R.; Buchanan, J.A.

1989-01-01

Analyses of mortality of workers at the Hanford Site were updated to include an additional three years of data (1979-81). Deaths occurring in the state of Washington in the years 1982-85 were also evaluated. Hanford workers continued to exhibit a strong healthy worker effect with death rates substantially below those of the general U.S. population. Comparisons by level of radiation exposure within the Hanford worker population provided no evidence of a positive correlation of radiation exposure and mortality from all cancers combined or of mortality from leukemia. Estimates of cancer risk due to radiation were negative, but confidence intervals weremore » wide, indicating that the data were consistent with no risk and with risks several times larger than estimates provided by major groups concerned with risk assessment. Of 18 categories of cancer analyzed, a correlation of borderline statistical significance was identified for female genital cancers (p = 0.05), but was interpreted as probably spurious. The previously identified correlation for multiple myeloma persisted (p = 0.002).« less

Enhancing sediment flux control and natural hazard risk mitigation through a structured conceptual planning approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simoni, S.; Vignoli, G.; Mazzorana, B.

2017-08-01

Sediment fluxes from mountain rivers contribute to shape the geomorphologic features of lowland rivers and to establish the physical basis for an optimal set of ecosystem functions and related services to people. Through significant public funding, the hydro-morphological regimes of mountain rivers in the European Alps have been progressively altered over the last century, with the aim to provide a safe dwelling space, to boost transport, mobility and to support economic growth. We claim that the underlying planning weaknesses contribute to determine these inefficient resource allocations, since flood risk is still high and the ecosystem services are far from being optimal. Hence, with the overall aim to enhance sediment flux control and hazard risk mitigation in such heavily modified alpine streams, we propose a structured design workflow which guides the planner through system analysis and synthesis. As a first step the proposed workflow sets the relevant planning goals and assesses the protection structure functionality. Then a methodology is proposed to achieve the goals. This methodology consists in characterising the hydrologic basin of interest and the sediment availability and determining the sediment connectivity to channels. The focus is set on the detailed analysis of existing river cross sections where the sediment continuity is interrupted (e.g. slit and check dams). By retaining relevant sediment volumes these structures prevent the reactivation of hydro-morphological and associated ecological functionalities. Since their actual performance can be unsatisfying with respect to flood risk mitigation (e.g. mainly old structures), we introduce specific efficiency indicators as a support for the conceptual design stage to quantify effects related to sediment flux control and risk management. The proposed planning approach is then applied to the Gadria system (stream, slit dam, retention basin and culvert), located in South Tyrol, Italy. This case study shows that design excellence is needed to re-establish the sediment continuity, while keeping flood risk below acceptable levels. Moreover, the detailed hydraulic analyses highlight that the slit dam is oversized and it could be redesigned to improve sediment continuity and to reduce maintenance costs.

Toward a cumulative ecological risk model for the etiology of child maltreatment

PubMed Central

MacKenzie, Michael J.; Kotch, Jonathan B.; Lee, Li-Ching

2011-01-01

The purpose of the current study was to further the integration of cumulative risk models with empirical research on the etiology of child maltreatment. Despite the well-established literature supporting the importance of the accumulation of ecological risk, this perspective has had difficulty infiltrating empirical maltreatment research and its tendency to focus on more limited risk factors. Utilizing a sample of 842 mother-infant dyads, we compared the capacity of individual risk factors and a cumulative index to predict maltreatment reports in a prospective longitudinal investigation over the first sixteen years of life. The total load of risk in early infancy was found to be related to maternal cognitions surrounding her new role, measures of social support and well-being, and indicators of child cognitive functioning. After controlling for total level of cumulative risk, most single factors failed to predict later maltreatment reports and no single variable provided odd-ratios as powerful as the predictive power of a cumulative index. Continuing the shift away from simplistic causal models toward an appreciation for the cumulative nature of risk would be an important step forward in the way we conceptualize intervention and support programs, concentrating them squarely on alleviating the substantial risk facing so many of society’s families. PMID:24817777

Characterizing high school students who play drinking games using latent class analysis.

PubMed

Borsari, Brian; Zamboanga, Byron L; Correia, Christopher; Olthuis, Janine V; Van Tyne, Kathryne; Zadworny, Zoe; Grossbard, Joel R; Horton, Nicholas J

2013-10-01

Heavy alcohol use and its associated negative consequences continue to be an important health issue among adolescents. Of particular concern are risky drinking practices such as playing drinking games. Although retrospective accounts indicate that drinking game participation is common among high school students, it has yet to be assessed in current high school students. Utilizing data from high school students who reported current drinking game participation (n=178), we used latent class analysis to investigate the negative consequences resulting from gaming and examined underlying demographic and alcohol-related behavioral characteristics of students as a function of the resultant classes. Three classes of "gamers" emerged: (1) a "lower-risk" group who had a lower probability of endorsing negative consequences compared to the other groups, (2) a "higher-risk" group who reported that they experienced hangovers and difficulties limiting their drinking, got physically sick, and became rude, obnoxious, or insulting, and (3) a "sexual regret" group who reported that they experienced poor recall and unplanned sexual activity that they later regretted. Although the frequency of participating in drinking games did not differ between these three groups, results indicated that the "lower-risk" group consumed fewer drinks in a typical gaming session compared to the other two groups. The present findings suggest that drinking games are common among high school students, but that mere participation and frequency of play are not necessarily the best indicators of risk. Instead, examination of other constructs such as game-related alcohol consumption, consequences, or psychosocial variables such as impulsivity may be more useful. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety of continuing aspirin therapy during spinal surgery: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Chenggui; Wang, Guodong; Liu, Xiaoyang; Li, Yang; Sun, Jianmin

2017-11-01

Questions whether to continue or discontinue aspirin administration in the perioperative period of spinal surgery has not been systematically evaluated. The present systematic review is carried out to assess the impact of continuing aspirin administration on the bleeding and cardiovascular events in perispinal surgery period. Studies were retrieved through MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Springer Link Databases (search terms, aspirin, continue or discontinue, and spinal fusion), bibliographies of the articles retrieved, and the authors' reference files. We included studies that enrolled patients who underwent spinal surgery who were anticoagulated with aspirin alone and that reported bleeding or cardiovascular events as an outcome. Study quality was assessed using a validated form. 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was pooled to give summary estimates of bleeding and cardiovascular risk. We identified 4 studies assessing bleeding risk associated with aspirin continuation or cardiovascular risk with aspirin discontinuation during spinal surgery. The continuation of aspirin will not increase the risk of blood loss during the spinal surgery (95% CI, -111.72 to -0.59; P = .05). Also, there was no observed increase in the operative time (95% CI, -33.29 to -3.89; P = .01) and postoperative blood transfusion (95% CI, 0.00-0.27; P = .05). But as for the cardiovascular risk without aspirin continuation and mean hospital length of stay with aspirin continuation, we did not get enough samples to make an accurate decision about their relations with aspirin. Patients undergoing spinal surgery with continued aspirin administration do not have an increased risk for bleeding. In addition, there is no observed increase in the operation time and postoperative blood transfusion.

Measuring polio immunity to plan immunization activities.

PubMed

Voorman, Arend; Lyons, Hil M

2016-11-21

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative is closer than ever to achieving a polio-free world. Immunization activities must still be carried out in non-endemic countries to maintain population immunity at levels which will stop poliovirus from spreading if it is re-introduced from still-infected areas. In areas where there is no active transmission of poliovirus, programs must rely on surrogate indicators of population immunity to determine the appropriate immunization activities, typically caregiver-reported vaccination history obtained from non-polio acute flaccid paralysis patients identified through polio surveillance. We used regression models to examine the relationship between polio vaccination campaigns and caregiver-reported polio vaccination history. We find that in many countries, vaccination campaigns have a surprisingly weak impact on these commonly used indicators. We conclude that alternative criteria and data, such as routine immunization indicators from vaccination records or household surveys, should be considered for planning polio vaccination campaigns, and that validation of such surrogate indicators is necessary if they are to be used as the basis for program planning and risk assessment. We recommend that the GPEI and similar organizations consider or continue devoting additional resources to rigorously study population immunity and campaign effectiveness in at-risk countries. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Relational Psychotherapy Mothers’ Group: A developmentally informed intervention for at-risk mothers

PubMed Central

Luthar, Suniya S.; Suchman, Nancy E.

2012-01-01

The Relational Psychotherapy Mothers’ Group (RPMG), a developmentally informed, supportive psychotherapy designed to serve heroin-addicted mothers with children up to 16 years of age, aims at addressing psychosocial vulnerabilities, and facilitating optimal parenting, among at-risk mothers. We present preliminary evidence on the efficacy of RPMG as an “add on” treatment in comparison with standard methadone counseling alone. At the end of the 24-week treatment period, mothers receiving RPMG plus standard methadone counseling demonstrated lower levels of risk for child maltreatment, greater involvement with their children, and more positive psychosocial adjustment than women who received methadone counseling alone. Children of RPMG participants also reflected fewer problems in multiple areas. At 6 months posttreatment, RPMG recipients continued to be at a relative advantage, although the magnitude of group differences was often attenuated. Notably, urinalyses indicated that RPMG mothers showed greater improvements in levels of opioid use over time than comparison mothers. PMID:10847626

Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

PubMed

Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

2017-06-01

Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

Prevention of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug-induced gastropathy.

PubMed

Schlansky, Barry; Hwang, Joo Ha

2009-01-01

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are widely used for their analgesic, antipyretic, and antiinflammatory properties, and aspirin is increasingly employed in the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease and ischemic stroke. Despite undisputed therapeutic efficacy for these indications, all NSAIDs impart a considerable risk of peptic ulcer disease and upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. A growing body of evidence supports an association between non-aspirin NSAIDs and acute coronary syndromes, and an expanding understanding of the gastroduodenal effects of aspirin, COX-2 selective agents, clopidogrel, and Helicobacter pylori synergism fuel controversies in NSAID use. In this review, we discuss risk stratification of patients taking NSAIDs and the appropriate application of proven gastro-protective strategies to decrease the incidence of gastrointestinal hemorrhage based upon an individualized assessment of risk for potential toxicities. Prevention of NSAID-related gastropathy is an important clinical issue, and therapeutic strategies for both the primary and secondary prevention of adverse events are continually evolving.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in atmospheric dustfall from the industrial corridor in Hubei Province, Central China.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiaquan; Qu, Chengkai; Qi, Shihua; Cao, Junji; Zhan, Changlin; Xing, Xinli; Xiao, Yulun; Zheng, Jingru; Xiao, Wensheng

2015-10-01

Thirty atmospheric dustfall samples collected from an industrial corridor in Hubei Province, central China, were analyzed for 16 USEPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to investigate their concentrations, spatial distributions, sources, and health risks. Total PAH concentrations (ΣPAHs) ranged from 1.72 to 13.17 µg/g and averaged 4.91 µg/g. High molecular weight (4-5 rings) PAHs averaged 59.67% of the ΣPAHs. Individual PAH concentrations were not significantly correlated with total organic carbon, possibly due to the semi-continuous inputs from anthropogenic sources. Source identification studies suggest that the PAHs were mainly from motor vehicles and biomass/coal combustion. The incremental lifetime cancer risks associated with exposure to PAHs in the dustfall ranged from 10(-4) to 10(-6); these indicate potentially serious carcinogenic risks for exposed populations in the industrial corridor.

Posttraumatic stress symptoms, PTSD, and risk factors among lower Manhattan residents 2-3 years after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

PubMed

DiGrande, Laura; Perrin, Megan A; Thorpe, Lorna E; Thalji, Lisa; Murphy, Joseph; Wu, David; Farfel, Mark; Brackbill, Robert M

2008-06-01

Manhattan residents living near the World Trade Center may have been particularly vulnerable to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after the September 11, 2001 (9/11) terrorist attacks. In 2003-2004, the authors administered the PTSD Checklist to 11,037 adults who lived south of Canal Street in New York City on 9/11. The prevalence of probable PTSD was 12.6% and associated with older age, female gender, Hispanic ethnicity, low education and income, and divorce. Injury, witnessing horror, and dust cloud exposure on 9/11 increased risk for chronic PTSD. Postdisaster risk factors included evacuation and rescue and recovery work. The results indicate that PTSD is a continued health problem in the local community. The relationship between socioeconomic status and PTSD suggests services must target marginalized populations. Followup is necessary on the course and long-term consequences of PTSD.

Evaluation of the Psychometric Properties of the Revised Inventory of the Dimensions of Emerging Adulthood (IDEA-R) in a Sample of Continuation High School Students

PubMed Central

Lisha, Nadra E.; Grana, Rachel; Sun, Ping; Rohrbach, Louise; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Reifman, Alan; Sussman, Steve

2013-01-01

It is now presumed that youth do not move directly from adolescence to adulthood, but rather pass through a transitional period, “emerging adulthood.” The Revised Inventory of the Dimensions of Emerging Adulthood (IDEA-R) is a self-report instrument developed to examine the attributes of this period. “At-risk” youth appear to enter emerging adulthood developmental tasks at a slightly earlier age than general population youth. In the present study, a 21-item version of the IDEA was administered to a sample of 1676 “at-risk” continuation (alternative) high school students in Southern California. Principal component factor analysis with orthogonal rotation revealed three factors the authors labeled “Identity Exploration,” “Experimentation/Possibilities,” and “Independence.” Overall, the measure demonstrated high internal consistency. Construct validity analyses indicated that the measure was correlated with demographics, risk behaviors, and psychological measures. The authors conclude that the IDEA-R is a useful instrument for measuring emerging adulthood in at-risk populations. PMID:22786874

Primary prevention of coronary heart disease: integration of new data, evolving views, revised goals, and role of rosuvastatin in management. A comprehensive survey

PubMed Central

Kones, Richard

2011-01-01

A recent explosion in the amount of cardiovascular risk and incipient, undetected subclinical cardiovascular pathology has swept across the globe. Nearly 70% of adult Americans are overweight or obese; the prevalence of visceral obesity stands at 53% and continues to rise. At any one time, 55% of the population is on a weight-loss diet, and almost all fail. Fewer than 15% of adults or children exercise sufficiently, and over 60% engage in no vigorous activity. Among adults, 11%–13% have diabetes, 34% have hypertension, 36% have prehypertension, 36% have prediabetes, 12% have both prediabetes and prehypertension, and 15% of the population with either diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia are undiagnosed. About one-third of the adult population, and 80% of the obese, have fatty livers. With 34% of children overweight or obese, prevalence having doubled in just a few years, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and fatty livers in children are at their highest levels ever. Half of adults have at least one cardiovascular risk factor. Not even 1% of the population attains ideal cardiovascular health. Despite falling coronary death rates for decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates in US women 35 to 54 years of age may now be increasing because of the obesity epidemic. Up to 65% of patients do not have their conventional risk biomarkers under control. Only 30% of high risk patients with CHD achieve aggressive low density lipoprotein (LDL) targets. Of those patients with multiple risk factors, fewer than 10% have all of them adequately controlled. Even when patients are titrated to evidence-based targets, about 70% of cardiac events remain unaddressed. Undertreatment is also common. About two-thirds of high risk primary care patients are not taking needed medications for dyslipidemia. Poor patient adherence, typically below 50%, adds further difficulty. Hence, after all such fractional reductions are multiplied, only a modest portion of total cardiovascular risk burden is actually being eliminated, and the full potential of risk reduction remains unrealized. Worldwide the situation is similar, with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome approaching 50%. Primordial prevention, resulting from healthful lifestyle habits that do not permit the appearance of risk factors, is the preferred method to lower cardiovascular risk. Lowering the prevalence of obesity is the most urgent matter, and is pleiotropic since it affects blood pressure, lipid profiles, glucose metabolism, inflammation, and atherothrombotic disease progression. Physical activity also improves several risk factors, with the additional potential to lower heart rate. Given the current obstacles, success of primordial prevention remains uncertain. At the same time, the consequences of delay and inaction will inevitably be disastrous, and the sense of urgency mounts. Since most CHD events arise in a large subpopulation of low- to moderate-risk individuals, identifying a high proportion of those who will go on to develop events with accuracy remains unlikely. Without a refinement in risk prediction, the current model of targeting high-risk individuals for aggressive therapy may not succeed alone, especially given the rising burden of risk. Estimating cardiovascular risk over a period of 10 years, using scoring systems such as Framingham or SCORE, continues to enjoy widespread use and is recommended for all adults. Limitations in the former have been of concern, including the under- or over-estimation of risk in specific populations, a relatively short 10-year risk horizon, focus on myocardial infarction and CHD death, and exclusion of family history. Classification errors may occur in up to 37% of individuals, particularly women and the young. Several different scoring systems are discussed in this review. The use of lifetime risk is an important conceptual advance, since ≥90% of young adults with a low 10-year risk have a lifetime risk of ≥39%; over half of all American adults have a low 10-year risk but a high lifetime risk. At age 50 the absence of traditional risk factors is associated with extremely low lifetime risk and significantly greater longevity. Pathological and epidemiological data confirm that atherosclerosis begins in early childhood, and advances seamlessly and inexorably throughout life. Risk factors in childhood are similar to those in adults, and track between stages of life. When indicated, aggressive treatment should begin at the earliest indication, and be continued for years. For those patients at intermediate risk according to global risk scores, C-reactive protein (CRP), coronary artery calcium (CAC), and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) are available for further stratification. Using statins for primary prevention is recommended by guidelines, is prevalent, but remains underprescribed. Statin drugs are unrivaled, evidence-based, major weapons to lower cardiovascular risk. Even when low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets are attained, over half of patients continue to have disease progression and clinical events. This residual risk is of great concern, and multiple sources of remaining risk exist. Though clinical evidence is incomplete, altering or raising the blood high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level continues to be pursued. Of all agents available, rosuvastatin produces the greatest reduction in LDL-C, LDL-P, and improvement in apoA-I/apoB, together with a favorable safety profile. Several recent proposals and methods to lower cardiovascular risk are reviewed. A combination of approaches, such as the addition of lifetime risk, refinement of risk prediction, guideline compliance, novel treatments, improvement in adherence, and primordial prevention, including environmental and social intervention, will be necessary to lower the present high risk burden. PMID:21792295

Management of antithrombotic therapy during cardiac implantable device surgery.

PubMed

AlTurki, Ahmed; Proietti, Riccardo; Birnie, David H; Essebag, Vidal

2016-06-01

Anticoagulants are commonly used drugs that are frequently encountered during device placement. Deciding when to halt or continue the use of anticoagulants is a balance between the risks of thromboembolism versus bleeding. Patients taking warfarin with a high risk of thromboembolism should continue to take their warfarin without interruption during device placement while ensuring their international normalized ratio remains below 3. For patients who are taking warfarin and have low risk of thromboembolism, either interrupted or continued warfarin may be used, with no evidence to clearly support either strategy. There is little evidence to support continuing direct acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for device implantation. The timing of halting these medications depends largely on renal function. If bleeding occurs, warfarin׳s anticoagulation effect is reversible with vitamin K and activated prothrombin complex concentrate. There are no DOAC reversal agents currently available, but some are under development. Regarding antiplatelet agents, aspirin alone can be safely continued while clopidogrel alone may also be continued, but with a slightly higher bleeding risk. Dual antiplatelet therapy for bare-metal stent/drug-eluting stent implanted within 4 weeks/6 months, respectively, should be continued due to high risk of stent thrombosis; however, if they are implanted after this period, then clopidogrel can be halted 5 days before the procedure and resumed soon after, while aspirin is continued. If the patient is taking both aspirin and warfarin, aspirin should be halted 5 days prior to the procedure, while warfarin is continued.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Dib, Gerges

This project involved the development of enhanced risk monitors (ERMs) for active components in Advanced Reactor (AdvRx) designs by integrating real-time information about equipment condition with risk monitors. Health monitoring techniques in combination with predictive estimates of component failure based on condition and risk monitors can serve to indicate the risk posed by continued operation in the presence of detected degradation. This combination of predictive health monitoring based on equipment condition assessment and risk monitors can also enable optimization of maintenance scheduling with respect to the economics of plant operation. This report summarizes PNNL’s multi-year project on the development andmore » evaluation of an ERM concept for active components while highlighting FY2016 accomplishments. Specifically, this report provides a status summary of the integration and demonstration of the prototypic ERM framework with the plant supervisory control algorithms being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and describes additional case studies conducted to assess sensitivity of the technology to different quantities. Supporting documentation on the software package to be provided to ONRL is incorporated in this report.« less

The Development of an HIV Risk Environment Scale of Exotic Dance Clubs.

PubMed

Sherman, Susan G; Brantley, Meredith R; Zelaya, Carla; Duong, Quyen; Taylor, Ralph B; Ellen, Jon M

2017-07-01

Exotic dancers have received little research attention despite evidence of high-risk behaviours within exotic dance clubs (EDCs). We developed and assessed the reliability and validity of a risk environment score, examining differences between dancers (n = 107) and other staff (n = 172). In the summer of 2013, anonymous surveys were administered via A-CASI in EDCs (N = 26) in Baltimore among exotic dancers and staff. Surveys consisted of a brief demographic section followed by 65 statements. The overall domain had an alpha = 0.77 and subdomains had the following: social (alpha = 0.87), economic (alpha = 0.92), drug (alpha = 0.89), and policy (alpha = 0.66). In a factor analysis, each domain contributed significantly to the overall latent construct. The results indicate a high level of HIV/STI risk for dancers in EDCs and underscore the need for targeted interventions in these environments. As we continue to unpack the function of the broader environment in STI/HIV risk transmission, the scale could be instructive for other settings.

Validating the Hamilton Anatomy of Risk Management-Forensic Version and the Aggressive Incidents Scale.

PubMed

Cook, Alana N; Moulden, Heather M; Mamak, Mini; Lalani, Shams; Messina, Katrina; Chaimowitz, Gary

2018-06-01

The Hamilton Anatomy of Risk Management-Forensic Version (HARM-FV) is a structured professional judgement tool of violence risk developed for use in forensic inpatient psychiatric settings. The HARM-FV is used with the Aggressive Incidents Scale (AIS), which provides a standardized method of recording aggressive incidents. We report the findings of the concurrent validity of the HARM-FV and the AIS with widely used measures of violence risk and aggressive acts, the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20, Version 3 (HCR-20 V3 ) and a modified version of the Overt Aggression Scale. We also present findings on the predictive validity of the HARM-FV in the short term (1-month follow-up periods) for varying severities of aggressive acts. The results indicated strong support for the concurrent validity of the HARM-FV and AIS and promising support for the predictive accuracy of the tool for inpatient aggression. This article provides support for the continued clinical use of the HARM-FV within an inpatient forensic setting and highlights areas for further research.

Incident reporting.

PubMed

Wilson, J

Healthcare delivery is a risky business. People view the NHS in the same light as other commercial businesses such as the hotel, retail and airline industries. The White Paper 'The New NHS: Modern, Dependable' (Secretary of State for Health, 1997) places statutory responsibilities on managers and clinicians to provide a quality service and to have accountability for clinical governance and performance management. Quality and risk are two sides of the same coin, i.e. if you have good quality you have low risk, and this firmly supports the clinical effectiveness agenda. Healthcare organizations in all sectors of care delivery need to demonstrate their high levels of achievement and commitment to continuous quality improvements. Risk management is a process for identifying, assessing and evaluating risks which have adverse effects on the quality, safety and effectiveness of service delivery, and taking positive action to eliminate or reduce them. Having an open, honest and blame-free organization which is open to improving processes and systems of care is a big step towards having staff who are committed to quality and getting things right. Near-miss, incident and indicator recording and reporting are cornerstones of any quality and risk management system.

Operation condition for continuous anti-solvent crystallization of CBZ-SAC cocrystal considering deposition risk of undesired crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimaru, Momoko; Nakasa, Miku; Kudo, Shoji; Takiyama, Hiroshi

2017-07-01

Crystallization operation of cocrystal production has deposition risk of undesired crystals. Simultaneously, continuous manufacturing processes are focused on. In this study, conditions for continuous cocrystallization considering risk reduction of undesired crystals deposition were investigated on the view point of thermodynamics and kinetics. The anti-solvent cocrystallization was carried out in four-component system of carbamazepine, saccharin, methanol and water. From the preliminary batch experiment, the relationships among undesired crystal deposition, solution composition decided by mixing ratio of solutions, and residence time for the crystals were considered, and then the conditions of continuous experiment were decided. Under these conditions, the continuous experiment was carried out. The XRD patterns of obtained crystals in the continuous experiment showed that desired cocrystals were obtained without undesired crystals. This experimental result was evaluated by using multi-component phase diagrams from the view point of the operation point's movement. From the evaluation, it was found that there is a certain operation condition which the operation point is fixed with time in the specific domain without the deposition risk of undesired single component crystals. It means the possibility of continuous production of cocrystals without deposition risk of undesired crystals was confirmed by using multi-component phase diagrams.

[New developments in psychiatry].

PubMed

Conus, Philippe; Herrera, Fabrice; Berney, Sylvie; Gailland, Bénédicte; Beretta, Véronique; Vandenberghe, Frederik; Eap, Chin B

2016-01-13

Three issues are discussed: i) While number of psychiatric beds has been reduced in most countries and although treatments proposed in psychiatric hospitals have evolved, they continue to be viewed as asylums implementing constraints. Considering this prevents their adequate use and leads to patients' stigmatisation, promotion of a better knowledge of contemporary hospital treatments is needed. 2) In addition, most psychiatric disorders emerging during adolescence and early adulthood, it is important to develop accessible care on university campuses. 3) While risk of weight gain and metabolic syndrome under neuroleptics or mood stabilisers is known, there is a need for the development of that are easy to identify. A 5% increase in weight during the first month of treatment indicates the risk for important later weight gain.

The incidence of un-indicated preoperative testing in a tertiary academic ambulatory center: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Onuoha, Onyi C; Hatch, Michael B; Miano, Todd A; Fleisher, Lee A

2015-01-01

Despite existing evidence and guidelines advocating for appropriate risk stratification, ambulatory surgery in low-risk patients continues to be accompanied by a battery of routine tests prior to surgery. Using a single-center retrospective cohort study, we aimed to quantify the incidence of un-indicated preoperative testing in an academic ambulatory center by utilizing recommendations by the recently developed American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) "Choosing Wisely" Top-5 list. We utilized data from the EPIC medical records of 3111 patients who had ambulatory surgery at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania during a 6-month period. Data were abstracted from laboratory studies- complete blood count, electrolyte panel, coagulation studies, and cardiac studies-stress test, and echocardiogram obtained within 30 days prior to surgery. Preoperative tests obtained from each patient were categorized into "indicated" (ASA ≥ 3) and "un-indicated" (ASA 1 and 2) tests, and percentages were reported. During the study period, 52.9 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) 37.6-66.4) of all patients had at least one un-indicated laboratory test performed preoperatively. Further analysis revealed variation in the incidence of preoperative ordering between tests; 73 % of all complete blood counts (CBCs), 70 % of all metabolic panels, and 49 % of all coagulation studies were considered un-indicated by "Top-5 List" criteria. Stated differently, of the patients included in the sample, 51 % of patients received an un-indicated CBC, 41 % an un-indicated metabolic panel, and 16 % un-indicated coagulation studies. Twelve percent of "any un-indicated preoperative test" were obtained from ASA 1 healthy patients. Of the 587 patients less than 36 years old, 331 (56 %) had at least one test that was deemed un-indicated. Forty-one patients had either an echocardiogram or stress test ordered and performed within 30 days of surgery. Of these, eight (19.5 %) studies were un-indicated as determined by chart review. The incidence of ordering "at least one un-indicated preoperative test" in low-risk patients undergoing low-risk surgery remains high even in academic tertiary institutions. In the emerging era of optimizing patient safety and financial accountability, further studies are needed to better understand the problem of overuse while identifying modifiable attitudes and institutional influences on perioperative practices among all stakeholders involved. Such information would drive the development of feasible interventions.

Rift Valley Fever Risk Map Model and Seroprevalence in Selected Wild Ungulates and Camels from Kenya

PubMed Central

Ruder, Mark G.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Tucker, Compton J.; Ateya, Leonard O.; Oriko, Abuu A.; Gacheru, Stephen; Wilson, William C.

2013-01-01

Since the first isolation of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in the 1930s, there have been multiple epizootics and epidemics in animals and humans in sub-Saharan Africa. Prospective climate-based models have recently been developed that flag areas at risk of RVFV transmission in endemic regions based on key environmental indicators that precede Rift Valley fever (RVF) epizootics and epidemics. Although the timing and locations of human case data from the 2006–2007 RVF outbreak in Kenya have been compared to risk zones flagged by the model, seroprevalence of RVF antibodies in wildlife has not yet been analyzed in light of temporal and spatial predictions of RVF activity. Primarily wild ungulate serum samples from periods before, during, and after the 2006–2007 RVF epizootic were analyzed for the presence of RVFV IgM and/or IgG antibody. Results show an increase in RVF seropositivity from samples collected in 2007 (31.8%), compared to antibody prevalence observed from 2000–2006 (3.3%). After the epizootic, average RVF seropositivity diminished to 5% in samples collected from 2008–2009. Overlaying maps of modeled RVF risk assessments with sampling locations indicated positive RVF serology in several species of wild ungulate in or near areas flagged as being at risk for RVF. Our results establish the need to continue and expand sero-surveillance of wildlife species Kenya and elsewhere in the Horn of Africa to further calibrate and improve the RVF risk model, and better understand the dynamics of RVFV transmission. PMID:23840512

Rift Valley Fever Risk Map Model and Seroprevalence in Selected Wild Ungulates and Camels from Kenya

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britch, Seth C.; Binepal, Yatinder S.; Ruder, Mark G.; Kariithi, Henry M.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Tucker, Compton J.; Ateya, Leonard O.; Oriko, Abuu A.;

Criminalisation of clients: reproducing vulnerabilities for violence and poor health among street-based sex workers in Canada-a qualitative study.

PubMed

Krüsi, A; Pacey, K; Bird, L; Taylor, C; Chettiar, J; Allan, S; Bennett, D; Montaner, J S; Kerr, T; Shannon, K

2014-06-02

To explore how criminalisation and policing of sex buyers (clients) rather than sex workers shapes sex workers' working conditions and sexual transactions including risk of violence and HIV/sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Qualitative and ethnographic study triangulated with sex work-related violence prevalence data and publicly available police statistics. Vancouver, Canada, provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of policies that criminalise clients as the local police department adopted a sex work enforcement policy in January 2013 that prioritises sex workers' safety over arrest, while continuing to target clients. 26 cisgender and 5 transgender women who were street-based sex workers (n=31) participated in semistructured interviews about their working conditions. All had exchanged sex for money in the previous 30 days in Vancouver. Thematic analysis of interview transcripts and ethnographic field notes focused on how police enforcement of clients shaped sex workers' working conditions and sexual transactions, including risk of violence and HIV/STIs, over an 11-month period postpolicy implementation (January-November 2013). Sex workers' narratives and ethnographic observations indicated that while police sustained a high level of visibility, they eased charging or arresting sex workers and showed increased concern for their safety. However, participants' accounts and police statistics indicated continued police enforcement of clients. This profoundly impacted the safety strategies sex workers employed. Sex workers continued to mistrust police, had to rush screening clients and were displaced to outlying areas with increased risks of violence, including being forced to engage in unprotected sex. These findings suggest that criminalisation and policing strategies that target clients reproduce the harms created by the criminalisation of sex work, in particular, vulnerability to violence and HIV/STIs. The current findings support decriminalisation of sex work to ensure work conditions that support the health and safety of sex workers in Canada and globally. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Business continuity strategies for cyber defence: battling time and information overload.

PubMed

Streufert, John

2010-11-01

Can the same numbers and letters which are the life blood of modern business and government computer systems be harnessed to protect computers from attack against known information security risks? For the past seven years, Foreign Service officers and technicians of the US Government have sought to maintain diplomatic operations in the face of rising cyber attacks and test the hypothesis that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. As eight out of ten attacks leverage known computer security vulnerabilities or configuration setting weaknesses, a pound of cure would seem to be easy to come by. Yet modern security tools present an unusually consequential threat to business continuity - too much rather than too little information on cyber problems is presented, harking back to a phenomenon cited by social scientists in the 1960s called 'information overload'. Experience indicates that the longer the most serious cyber problems go untreated, the wider the attack surface adversaries can find. One technique used at the Department of State, called 'risk scoring', resulted in an 89 per cent overall reduction in measured risk over 12 months for the Department of State's servers and personal computers. Later refinements of risk scoring enabled technicians to correct unique security threats with unprecedented speed. This paper explores how the use of metrics, special care in presenting information to technicians and executives alike, as well as tactical use of organisational incentives can result in stronger cyber defences protecting modern organisations.

International testicular cancer incidence trends: generational transitions in 38 countries 1900-1990.

PubMed

Znaor, Ariana; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Laversanne, Mathieu; Jemal, Ahmedin; Bray, Freddie

2015-01-01

Rapid increases in testicular cancer incidence have marked the second half of the last century. While these secular rises, observed mainly in countries attaining the highest levels of human development, appear to have attenuated in the last decade, rates continue to increase in countries transiting toward high developmental levels. The purpose of our study was to provide a comprehensive analysis and presentation of the cohort-specific trends in testicular cancer incidence rates in 38 countries worldwide. We used an augmented version of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series to analyze testicular cancer incidence in men aged 15-54 in 38 countries, via age-period-cohort analysis. In many European countries, the USA, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, there is a continuation of the increasing risk among successive generations, yet rates are attenuating in male cohorts born since the 1970s in several Northern European countries, in contrast to the steeply increasing trends in recent cohorts in Southern Europe. Incidence rates have also been increasing in the populations traditionally at rather low risk, such as in the Philippines, Singapore, China, and Costa Rica. The attenuation of testicular cancer risk in younger generations (in the most developed countries) alongside concomitant increases (in countries undergoing developmental change) is indicative of a global transition in the risk of testicular cancer. While identifying the underlying causes remains a major challenge, increasing awareness and adapting national healthcare systems to accommodate a growing burden of testicular cancer may prevent future avoidable deaths in young men.

Go Grrrls: A Randomized Controlled Trial of a Gender-Specific Intervention to Reduce Sexual Risk Factors in Middle School Females.

PubMed

LeCroy, Craig Winston; McCullough Cosgrove, Jenny; Cotter, Katie; Fordney, Marie

2018-04-01

Adolescent females continue to face health consequences associated with risky sexual behaviors such as unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases. The purpose of this study was to investigate the efficacy of a gender-specific intervention targeted to early adolescent females. This study used an intent to treat randomized clinical trial comparing a broad-based female empowerment curriculum with a dose-matched science and technology female leadership curriculum. The sample ( N = 801) was recruited from schools and was implemented in community-based settings mostly in an after school context. Assessments were conducted at baseline, postintervention, 6-, and 18-month follow-up time periods. Both groups in the study obtained good implementation and engagement. The average attendance rate was 81% of program sessions. There were significant differences between the two groups favoring the intervention group on measures of sexually transmitted disease knowledge and condom technical skills. On a measure of condom self-efficacy, there was a significant trend. At the postassessment, there was a significant difference on the intentions to reduce sexual risk behaviors. Both the intervention and control groups made gains on the self-assertive behavior scale. Gender-specific programs for early adolescent females can help reduce indicators that are related to sexual risk reduction. More long-term follow-up is needed to assess impact on sexual behaviors. Efforts directed at a younger population of females should continue to be researched for potential in reducing sexual risks.

The Fatigue Approach to Vibration and Health: is it a Practical and Viable way of Predicting the Effects on People?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandover, J.

1998-08-01

The fatigue approach assumes that the vertebral end-plates are the weak link in the spine subjected to shock and vibration, and fail as a result of material fatigue. The theory assumes that end-plate damage leads to degeneration and pain in the lumbar spine. There is evidence for both the damage predicted and the fatigue mode of failure so that the approach may provide a basis for predictive methods for use in epidemiology and standards. An available data set from a variety of heavy vehicles in practical situations was used for predictions of spinal stress and fatigue life. Although there was some disparity between the predictive methods used, the more developed methods indicated fatigue lives that appeared reasonable, taking into account the vehicles tested and our knowledge of spinal degeneration. It is argued that the modelling and fatigue approaches combined offer a basis for estimating the effects of vibration and shock on health. Although the human variables are such that the approach, as yet, only offers rough estimates, it offers a good basis for understanding. The approach indicates that peak values are important and large peaks dominate risk. The method indicates that long term r.m.s. methods probably underestimate the risk of injury. The BS 6841Wband ISO 2631Wkweightings have shortcomings when used where peak values are important. A simple model may be more appropriate. The principle can be applied to continuous vibration as well as high acceleration events so that one method can be applied universally to continuous vibrations, high acceleration events and mixtures of these. An endurance limit can be hypothesised and, if this limit is sufficiently high, then the need for many measurements can be reduced.

State of the Nigerian child - neglect of child and adolescent mental health: a review.

PubMed

Atilola, O; Ayinde, O O; Emedoh, C T; Oladimeji, O

2015-05-01

As most child health initiatives in Nigeria lack a child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) strategy, CAMH issues have remained obscure to the country's policy-makers. The lack of current and representative epidemiological data on the mental health of Nigerian children continues to be a barrier to advocacy for CAMH policy initiatives. In view of the importance of CAMH to national development, there must be a continued search for ways of bringing the state of CAMH in Nigeria to the attention of policy-makers. To use information from UNICEF's State of the World's Children as proxy data to speculate on the state of child mental health in Nigeria. With a view to discussing its CAMH implications, social and health indicators in the Nigerian child were extracted from UNICEF's 2012 edition. Most of the social and health indicators assessed reflect significant mental health risks. Up to 65% of households live on less than US$1·25 per day, child malnutrition is evident in up to 40% of children, and the primary and secondary school net enrolment ratios are only 63% and 25%, respectively. In addition, the rate of attendance for antenatal care was 45%, and only 39% of deliveries were supervised by skilled birth attendants. Child labour and under-age marriage is very common. A literature review demonstrates that children living in these circumstances are at significant risk of mental health problems. Current data on the state of Nigerian children contain indices that can serve as proxy information for the state of CAMH in the country. Policy-makers need to invest more in pre-emptive child health initiatives as a way of preserving the physical and mental health of children.

Transmission of Staphylococcus aureus from maternity unit staff members to newborns disclosed through spa typing.

PubMed

Matussek, Andreas; Taipalensuu, Jan; Einemo, Ing-Marie; Tiefenthal, Malena; Löfgren, Sture

2007-03-01

We observed previously that newborn infants are colonized with Staphylococcus aureus, even if their mothers do not carry S aureus. This observation indicated a cross colonization, and, thus, a risk for nosocomial infection, although the infants are roomed in with their mothers. The S aureus colonization of infants, their parents, and staff members was measured at 3 maternity units. Possible transmission routes were determined using spa typing of S aureus isolates. Infants had the highest S aureus carriage (45%) compared with fathers (39%), mothers (27%), and staff members (27%). In 13 out of 44 colonized infants, transmission from staff members was indicated. This transmission was more frequent than was transmission from their own parents (11 cases), and occurred even in cases when parents were colonized with S aureus of other spa types. We confirm a high level of transmission of S aureus from staff members to infants, indicating a risk for patient safety, which necessitates continuing work with implementing scientific evidence for infection control. The spa typing is a rapid and valuable epidemiological tool, and it can be used in improving hospital hygiene control programs.

Predicting Family Burden Following Childhood Traumatic Brain Injury: A Cumulative Risk Approach

PubMed Central

Josie, Katherine Leigh; Peterson, Catherine Cant; Burant, Christopher; Drotar, Dennis; Stancin, Terry; Wade, Shari L.; Yeates, Keith; Taylor, H. Gerry

2015-01-01

Objective To examine the utility of a cumulative risk index (CRI) in predicting the family burden of injury (FBI) over time in families of children with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Participants One hundred eight children with severe or moderate TBI and their families participated in the study. Measures The measures used in the study include the Socioeconomic Composite Index, Life Stressors and Social Resources Inventory—Adult Form, Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, Child Behavior Checklist, Children’s Depression Inventory, McMaster Family Assessment Device, Brief Symptom Inventory, and Family Burden of Injury Interview. In addition, information on injury-related risk was obtained via medical charts. Methods Participants were assessed immediately, 6, and 12 months postinjury and at a 4-year extended follow-up. Results Risk variables were dichotomized (ie, high- or low-risk) and summed to create a CRI for each child. The CRI predicted the FBI at all assessments, even after accounting for autocorrelations across repeated assessments. Path coefficients between the outcome measures at each time point were significant, as were all path coefficients from the CRI to family burden at each time point. In addition, all fit indices were above the recommended guidelines, and the χ2 statistic indicated a good fit to the data. Conclusions The current study provides initial support for the utility of a CRI (ie, an index of accumulated risk factors) in predicting family outcomes over time for children with TBI. The time period immediately after injury best predicts the future levels of FBI; however, cumulative risk continues to influence the change across successive postinjury assessments. These results suggest that clinical interventions could be proactive or preventive by intervening with identified “at-risk” subgroups immediately following injury. PMID:19033828

Quantitative Evaluation of the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) for Comparing Herbicides

PubMed Central

Kniss, Andrew R.; Coburn, Carl W.

2015-01-01

Various indicators of pesticide environmental risk have been proposed, and one of the most widely known and used is the environmental impact quotient (EIQ). The EIQ has been criticized by others in the past, but it continues to be used regularly in the weed science literature. The EIQ is typically considered an improvement over simply comparing the amount of herbicides applied by weight. Herbicides are treated differently compared to other pesticide groups when calculating the EIQ, and therefore, it is important to understand how different risk factors affect the EIQ for herbicides. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the EIQ as an environmental indicator for herbicides. Simulation analysis was conducted to quantify relative sensitivity of the EIQ to changes in risk factors, and actual herbicide EIQ values were used to quantify the impact of herbicide application rate on the EIQ Field Use Rating. Herbicide use rate was highly correlated with the EIQ Field Use Rating (Spearman’s rho >0.96, P-value <0.001) for two herbicide datasets. Two important risk factors for herbicides, leaching and surface runoff potential, are included in the EIQ calculation but explain less than 1% of total variation in the EIQ. Plant surface half-life was the risk factor with the greatest relative influence on herbicide EIQ, explaining 26 to 28% of the total variation in EIQ for actual and simulated EIQ values, respectively. For herbicides, the plant surface half-life risk factor is assigned values without any supporting quantitative data, and can result in EIQ estimates that are contrary to quantitative risk estimates for some herbicides. In its current form, the EIQ is a poor measure of herbicide environmental impact. PMID:26121252

Quantitative Evaluation of the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) for Comparing Herbicides.

PubMed

Kniss, Andrew R; Coburn, Carl W

2015-01-01

Various indicators of pesticide environmental risk have been proposed, and one of the most widely known and used is the environmental impact quotient (EIQ). The EIQ has been criticized by others in the past, but it continues to be used regularly in the weed science literature. The EIQ is typically considered an improvement over simply comparing the amount of herbicides applied by weight. Herbicides are treated differently compared to other pesticide groups when calculating the EIQ, and therefore, it is important to understand how different risk factors affect the EIQ for herbicides. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the EIQ as an environmental indicator for herbicides. Simulation analysis was conducted to quantify relative sensitivity of the EIQ to changes in risk factors, and actual herbicide EIQ values were used to quantify the impact of herbicide application rate on the EIQ Field Use Rating. Herbicide use rate was highly correlated with the EIQ Field Use Rating (Spearman's rho >0.96, P-value <0.001) for two herbicide datasets. Two important risk factors for herbicides, leaching and surface runoff potential, are included in the EIQ calculation but explain less than 1% of total variation in the EIQ. Plant surface half-life was the risk factor with the greatest relative influence on herbicide EIQ, explaining 26 to 28% of the total variation in EIQ for actual and simulated EIQ values, respectively. For herbicides, the plant surface half-life risk factor is assigned values without any supporting quantitative data, and can result in EIQ estimates that are contrary to quantitative risk estimates for some herbicides. In its current form, the EIQ is a poor measure of herbicide environmental impact.

Angiotensin-II receptor 1 antagonist fetopathy--risk assessment, critical time period and vena cava thrombosis as a possible new feature.

PubMed

Oppermann, Marc; Padberg, Stephanie; Kayser, Angela; Weber-Schoendorfer, Corinna; Schaefer, Christof

2013-03-01

Angiotensin-II receptor 1 antagonists (AT₁-antagonists) may cause severe and even lethal fetopathy in late pregnancy. However, exposure still occurs in spite of warnings in package leaflets. This study aimed to assess the risk of fetopathy, the sensitive time window, and possible new symptoms in prospective as well as retrospective cases with AT₁-antagonist treatment during the second or third trimester of pregnancy. Patients were enrolled by the Berlin Institute for Clinical Teratology and Drug Risk Assessment in Pregnancy between 1999 and 2011 through risk consultation. Symptoms defined as indicative of AT₁-antagonist fetopathy were: oligo-/anhydramnios, renal insufficiency, lung hypoplasia, joint contractures, skull hypoplasia and fetal/neonatal death. In 5/29 (17%) prospectively enrolled cases with AT₁-antagonist exposure beyond the first trimester oligo-/anhydramnios was diagnosed. Two infants showed additional symptoms of fetopathy. The risk is more than 30% if treatment continues beyond the 20th week of pregnancy. Oligo-/anhydramnios was reversible after AT₁-antagonist withdrawal. Among 16 retrospective case reports, three infants presented with a thrombosis of the inferior vena cava in the vicinity of the renal veins. Four out of 13 live births did not survive. Our survey suggests that the risk increases with duration of AT₁-antagonist treatment into late pregnancy and oligo-/anhydramnios may be reversible after AT₁-antagonist discontinuation. Thrombosis of inferior vena cava may be a new feature of AT₁-antagonist fetopathy. AT₁-antagonist medication during pregnancy constitutes a considerable risk and must be discontinued immediately. In case of indicative diagnostic findings in either the fetus or newborn, previous maternal AT₁-antagonist exposure should be considered. © 2012 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2012 The British Pharmacological Society.

Sun exposure and risk of melanoma

PubMed Central

Oliveria, S A; Saraiya, M; Geller, A C; Heneghan, M K; Jorgensen, C

2006-01-01

Background As skin cancer education programmes directed to children and adolescents continue to expand, an epidemiological basis for these programmes is necessary to target efforts and plan for further evaluation. Aims To summarise the epidemiological evidence on sun exposure during childhood and adolescence and melanoma risk. Methods A literature review was conducted using Medline (1966 to December 2004) to identify articles relating to sun exposure and melanoma. The review was restricted to studies that included sun exposure information on subjects 18 years of age or younger. Results Migrant studies generally indicate an increased melanoma risk in individuals who spent childhood in sunny geographical locations, and decreasing melanoma risk with older age at arrival. Individuals who resided in geographical locations close to the equator or close to the coast during childhood and/or adolescence have an increased melanoma risk compared to those who lived at higher latitudes or never lived near the coast. The intermittent exposure hypothesis remains controversial; some studies indicate that children and adolescents who received intermittent sun exposure during vacation, recreation, or occupation are at increased melanoma risk as adults, but more recent studies suggest intermittent exposure to have a protective effect. The majority of sunburn studies suggest a positive association between early age sunburn and subsequent risk of melanoma. Conclusion Future research efforts should focus on: (1) clarifying the relation between sun exposure and melanoma; (2) conducting prospective studies; (3) assessing sun exposure during different time periods of life using a reliable and quantitative method; (4) obtaining information on protective measures; and (5) examining the interrelations between ability to tan, propensity to burn, skin type, history of sunburns, timing and pattern of sun exposure, number of nevi, and other host factors in the child and adolescent populations. PMID:16326797

Challenges of DHS and MIS to capture the entire pattern of malaria parasite risk and intervention effects in countries with different ecological zones: the case of Cameroon.

PubMed

Massoda Tonye, Salomon G; Kouambeng, Celestin; Wounang, Romain; Vounatsou, Penelope

2018-04-06

In 2011, the demographic and health survey (DHS) in Cameroon was combined with the multiple indicator cluster survey. Malaria parasitological data were collected, but the survey period did not overlap with the high malaria transmission season. A malaria indicator survey (MIS) was also conducted during the same year, within the malaria peak transmission season. This study compares estimates of the geographical distribution of malaria parasite risk and of the effects of interventions obtained from the DHS and MIS survey data. Bayesian geostatistical models were applied on DHS and MIS data to obtain georeferenced estimates of the malaria parasite prevalence and to assess the effects of interventions. Climatic predictors were retrieved from satellite sources. Geostatistical variable selection was used to identify the most important climatic predictors and indicators of malaria interventions. The overall observed malaria parasite risk among children was 33 and 30% in the DHS and MIS data, respectively. Both datasets identified the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the altitude as important predictors of the geographical distribution of the disease. However, MIS selected additional climatic factors as important disease predictors. The magnitude of the estimated malaria parasite risk at national level was similar in both surveys. Nevertheless, DHS estimates lower risk in the North and Coastal areas. MIS did not find any important intervention effects, although DHS revealed that the proportion of population with an insecticide-treated nets access in their household was statistically important. An important negative relationship between malaria parasitaemia and socioeconomic factors, such as the level of mother's education, place of residence and the household welfare were captured by both surveys. Timing of the malaria survey influences estimates of the geographical distribution of disease risk, especially in settings with seasonal transmission. In countries with different ecological zones and thus different seasonal patterns, a single survey may not be able to identify all high risk areas. A continuous MIS or a combination of MIS, health information system data and data from sentinel sites may be able to capture the disease risk distribution in space across different seasons.

Analysis of spatial dynamic of epizootic process of bluetongue and its risk factors.

PubMed

Bouchemla, Fayssal; Popova, Olga Mikhailovna; Agoltsov, Valerey Alexandrovich

2017-10-01

The study was undertaken to find out the spatial dynamic occurrence and patterns of the global spread of bluetongue (BT) disease for the period from 1996 to 2016, as well as the assessment of the risk of occurrence and its spread in 2017-2018. Outbreaks (serum samples were collected from clinically healthy as well as suspected animals in infected points) were confirmed and reported officially by veterinary departments which represent different geographical regions in the world to World Organization for Animal Health. These reports explained that ELISA and polymerase chain reaction were used to identify the BT disease, taking in the account number of infected, dead animals, and focus of BT infection in all susceptible animals from 1996 to 2016. Once conventional statistical population was defined (an observational study), we had classified data as well as possible to answer to our aim, using descriptive statistics methods, including the test of the relationship between different epizootiological indicators. The spatial dynamic study of BT's occurrence and its spread in the world over the two past decades was presented by different epizootic indicators. The given analysis includes assessment and measurement of risk factors. It was built too, regression models, and allowed to put different forecasts on the different epizootic indicators in the years 2017-2018 by the extrapolation method. We had also determined that, in 2017, BT continues to spread with the total expectancy of 3.4 focus of infection (number of diseased animals in a single unfavorable point) and mortality of about 26 %; these rates tend to decrease in 2018. At abused points by BT, up to 78.4% of animals are mixed (more than one type) and in 21.6% - uniform. By this way, the relative risk of the incidence of appearance-abused points in mixed households has 3.64, which might be considered higher for the BT dissemination. Moreover, between the enzootic index and other epizootiological indicators had revealed an inverse correlation, i.e., to an increase in the level of enzootic index among the cattle population would be formed population less sensitive to BT. Cluster analysis was done, which had demonstrated the zoning of risk levels in the world and the occurrence of the disease intensity in the period 1996-2016 years. Then, assess connection degree of the dynamic of BT tension with geographical and socioeconomic conditions background 0.66 and 0.68, respectively. It is important to define a variety of BT risk factors and assess their influence on BT occurrence. However, the most important is to define the overlapping coinfluence between them that cause serious losses. To have an out of BT territory needs to make an emphasis of co-influence of risk factors on this zone. Was predicted a continue hits of disease in the next year with weight moderation through one year. Far from statists, to assess the given forecast may have a serious variety, taken in account problems of actual climate change in the world.

Benchmarking Global Food Safety Performances: The Era of Risk Intelligence.

PubMed

Valleé, Jean-Charles Le; Charlebois, Sylvain

2015-10-01

Food safety data segmentation and limitations hamper the world's ability to select, build up, monitor, and evaluate food safety performance. Currently, there is no metric that captures the entire food safety system, and performance data are not collected strategically on a global scale. Therefore, food safety benchmarking is essential not only to help monitor ongoing performance but also to inform continued food safety system design, adoption, and implementation toward more efficient and effective food safety preparedness, responsiveness, and accountability. This comparative study identifies and evaluates common elements among global food safety systems. It provides an overall world ranking of food safety performance for 17 Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) countries, illustrated by 10 indicators organized across three food safety risk governance domains: risk assessment (chemical risks, microbial risks, and national reporting on food consumption), risk management (national food safety capacities, food recalls, food traceability, and radionuclides standards), and risk communication (allergenic risks, labeling, and public trust). Results show all countries have very high food safety standards, but Canada and Ireland, followed by France, earned excellent grades relative to their peers. However, any subsequent global ranking study should consider the development of survey instruments to gather adequate and comparable national evidence on food safety.

The importance of retesting the hearing screening as an indicator of the real early hearing disorder.

PubMed

Silva, Daniela Polo Camargo da; Lopez, Priscila Suman; Ribeiro, Georgea Espíndola; Luna, Marcos Otávio de Mesquita; Lyra, João César; Montovani, Jair Cortez

2015-01-01

Early diagnosis of hearing loss minimizes its impact on child development. We studied factors that influence the effectiveness of screening programs. To investigate the relationship between gender, weight at birth, gestational age, risk factors for hearing loss, venue for newborn hearing screening and "pass" and "fail" results in the retest. Prospective cohort study was carried out in a tertiary referral hospital. The screening was performed in 565 newborns through transient evoked otoacoustic emissions in three admission units before hospital discharge and retest in the outpatient clinic. Gender, weight at birth, gestational age, presence of risk indicators for hearing loss and venue for newborn hearing screening were considered. Full-term infants comprised 86% of the cases, preterm 14%, and risk factors for hearing loss were identified in 11%. Considering the 165 newborns retested, only the venue for screening, Intermediate Care Unit, was related to "fail" result in the retest. Gender, weight at birth, gestational age and presence of risk factors for hearing loss were not related to "pass" and/or "fail" results in the retest. The screening performed in intermediate care units increases the chance of continued "fail" result in the Transient Otoacoustic Evoked Emissions test. Copyright © 2015 Associação Brasileira de Otorrinolaringologia e Cirurgia Cérvico-Facial. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

A new molecular predictor of distant recurrence in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer adds independent information to conventional clinical risk factors.

PubMed

Filipits, Martin; Rudas, Margaretha; Jakesz, Raimund; Dubsky, Peter; Fitzal, Florian; Singer, Christian F; Dietze, Otto; Greil, Richard; Jelen, Andrea; Sevelda, Paul; Freibauer, Christa; Müller, Volkmar; Jänicke, Fritz; Schmidt, Marcus; Kölbl, Heinz; Rody, Achim; Kaufmann, Manfred; Schroth, Werner; Brauch, Hiltrud; Schwab, Matthias; Fritz, Peter; Weber, Karsten E; Feder, Inke S; Hennig, Guido; Kronenwett, Ralf; Gehrmann, Mathias; Gnant, Michael

2011-09-15

According to current guidelines, molecular tests predicting the outcome of breast cancer patients can be used to assist in making treatment decisions after consideration of conventional markers. We developed and validated a gene expression signature predicting the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy. RNA levels assessed by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissue were used to calculate a risk score (Endopredict, EP) consisting of eight cancer-related and three reference genes. EP was combined with nodal status and tumor size into a comprehensive risk score, EPclin. Both prespecified risk scores including cutoff values to determine a risk group for each patient (low and high) were validated independently in patients from two large randomized phase III trials [Austrian Breast and Colorectal Cancer Study Group (ABCSG)-6: n = 378, ABCSG-8: n = 1,324]. In both validation cohorts, continuous EP was an independent predictor of distant recurrence in multivariate analysis (ABCSG-6: P = 0.010, ABCSG-8: P < 0.001). Combining Adjuvant!Online, quantitative ER, Ki67, and treatment with EP yielded a prognostic power significantly superior to the clinicopathologic factors alone [c-indices: 0.764 vs. 0.750, P = 0.024 (ABCSG-6) and 0.726 vs. 0.701, P = 0.003 (ABCSG-8)]. EPclin had c-indices of 0.788 and 0.732 and resulted in 10-year distant recurrence rates of 4% and 4% in EPclin low-risk and 28% and 22% in EPclin high-risk patients in ABCSG-6 (P < 0.001) and ABCSG-8 (P < 0.001), respectively. The multigene EP risk score provided additional prognostic information to the risk of distant recurrence of breast cancer patients, independent from clinicopathologic parameters. The EPclin score outperformed all conventional clinicopathologic risk factors. ©2011 AACR.

Multimethod Prediction of Physical Parent-Child Aggression Risk in Expectant Mothers and Fathers with Social Information Processing Theory

PubMed Central

Rodriguez, Christina M.; Smith, Tamika L.; Silvia, Paul J.

2015-01-01

The Social Information Processing (SIP) model postulates that parents undergo a series of stages in implementing physical discipline that can escalate into physical child abuse. The current study utilized a multimethod approach to investigate whether SIP factors can predict risk of parent-child aggression (PCA) in a diverse sample of expectant mothers and fathers. SIP factors of PCA attitudes, negative child attributions, reactivity, and empathy were considered as potential predictors of PCA risk; additionally, analyses considered whether personal history of PCA predicted participants’ own PCA risk through its influence on their attitudes and attributions. Findings indicate that, for both mothers and fathers, history influenced attitudes but not attributions in predicting PCA risk, and attitudes and attributions predicted PCA risk; empathy and reactivity predicted negative child attributions for expectant mothers, but only reactivity significantly predicted attributions for expectant fathers. Path models for expectant mothers and fathers were remarkably similar. Overall, the findings provide support for major aspects of the SIP model. Continued work is needed in studying the progression of these factors across time for both mothers and fathers as well as the inclusion of other relevant ecological factors to the SIP model. PMID:26631420

75 FR 23582 - Federal Housing Administration: Continuation of FHA Reform-Strengthening Risk Management Through...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-04

...-AI81 Federal Housing Administration: Continuation of FHA Reform-- Strengthening Risk Management Through... Federal Housing Administration (FHA) that are designed to strengthen FHA by improving its management of risk. Although the preamble to the final rule correctly provides that the revised net worth...

Microbial Diversity Aboard Spacecraft: Evaluation of the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castro, Victoria A.; Thrasher, Adrianna N.; Healy, Mimi; Ott, C. Mark; Pierson, Duane L.

2003-01-01

An evaluation of the microbial flora from air, water, and surface samples provided a baseline of microbial diversity onboard the International Space Station (ISS) to gain insight into bacterial and fungal contamination during the initial stages of construction and habitation. Using 16S genetic sequencing and rep-PeR, 63 bacterial strains were isolated for identification and fingerprinted for microbial tracking. The use of these molecular tools allowed for the identification of bacteria not previously identified using automated biochemical analysis and provided a clear indication of the source of several ISS contaminants. Fungal and bacterial data acquired during monitoring do not suggest there is a current microbial hazard to the spacecraft, nor does any trend indicate a potential health risk. Previous spacecraft environmental analysis indicated that microbial contamination will increase with time and require continued surveillance.

[CBO guideline 'Deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism; revision of the earlier guidelines. Dutch Organization for Quality Assurance in Hospitals].

PubMed

Büller, H R; van der Meer, J; Oudkerk, M

2000-08-05

Diagnosis of clinically suspected deep venous thrombosis is based on a clinical score, serial compression ultrasonography and D-dimer assay. For the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism perfusion scintigraphy, ventilation scintigraphy, echography of the leg veins and pulmonary angiography in that order lead to the lowest mortality, morbidity and costs. Diagnostics with spiral CT followed by pulmonary angiography leads to equal mortality and fewer angiography procedures. Decision rules based on anamnesis, physical examination, blood gas analysis and chest radiograph have proved to be insufficiently reliable. The present D-dimer assays have too little sensitivity and too much variability. Thrombo-prophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin is indicated for general surgery, joint replacement of the knee or hip, cranial and spinal surgery, subarachnoid haemorrhage after surgical treatment of an aneurysm, acute myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke or spinal cord lesion, intensive care patients, patients with acute paralysis due to a neuromuscular disorder, and bedridden patients with a risk factor. Prophylaxis has to be continued as long as the indication exists. In the acute phase of deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism treatment with (low-molecular-weight) heparin in an adequate dose is necessary. When started at the same time as coumarin derivatives the treatment with heparin has to be continued for at least 5 days. The risk of postthrombotic syndrome after deep venous thrombosis will be lowered by carrying compression stockings for at least 2 years after the event.

Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

2002-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGICAL DYNAMICS OF ENHANCED HIV RISK REDUCTION AMONG PEER INTERVENTIONISTS

PubMed Central

Dickson-Gomez, Julia; Weeks, Margaret R.; Convey, Mark; Li, Jianghong

2014-01-01

The authors present a model of interactive social psychological and relational feedback processes leading to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk reduction behavior change among active drug users trained as Peer Health Advocates (PHAs). The model is supported by data from qualitative interviews with PHAs and members of their drug-using networks in the Risk Avoidance Partnership (RAP) project. Results suggest three mutually reinforcing social psychological processes that motivate PHAs to provide HIV prevention intervention to their peers and to reduce their own risk behaviors: development of a prosocial identity, positive social reinforcement from drug users and community members, and cognitive dissonance associated with continued risk behavior while engaging in health advocacy. These processes directly influence peer interventionists’ motivation and efficacy to continue giving intervention to their peers, and to reduce their HIV risk behaviors. The authors discuss implications of the model for continued research on effective HIV prevention in high-risk groups. PMID:25414528

Year 6 Post-Remediation Biomonitoring and Phase II Source Investigation at the United Heckathorn Superfund Site, Richmond, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kohn, Nancy P.; Evans, Nathan R.

The Heckathorn Superfund Site in Richmond, California, encompasses the property of the former United Heckathorn pesticide packaging plant and the adjacent waterway, Lauritzen Channel. The site was used from 1945 to 1966 by several operators to produce various agricultural chemicals. The site was placed on the National Priorities List of Superfund sites in 1990, which resulted in the removal of pesticide-contaminated soil from the upland portion of the site and dredging the marine portion of the site. Post-remediation marine monitoring and associated studies conducted through 2002 indicate that the contamination in the channel continues to pose a significant risk tomore » biota and human health. This report documents continued marine monitoring and source investigation studies conducted in 2003.« less

Early Right Ventricular Assist Device Use in Patients Undergoing Continuous-Flow Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation: Incidence and Risk Factors From the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support.

PubMed

Kiernan, Michael S; Grandin, E Wilson; Brinkley, Marshall; Kapur, Navin K; Pham, Duc Thinh; Ruthazer, Robin; Rame, J Eduardo; Atluri, Pavan; Birati, Edo Y; Oliveira, Guilherme H; Pagani, Francis D; Kirklin, James K; Naftel, David; Kormos, Robert L; Teuteberg, Jeffrey J; DeNofrio, David

2017-10-01

To investigate preimplant risk factors associated with early right ventricular assist device (RVAD) use in patients undergoing continuous-flow left ventricular assist device (LVAD) surgery. Patients in the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support who underwent primary continuous-flow-LVAD surgery were examined for concurrent or subsequent RVAD implantation within 14 days of LVAD. Risk factors for RVAD implantation and the combined end point of RVAD or death within 14 days of LVAD were assessed with stepwise logistic regression. We compared survival between patients with and without RVAD using Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards modeling. Of 9976 patients undergoing continuous-flow-LVAD implantation, 386 patients (3.9%) required an RVAD within 14 days of LVAD surgery. Preimplant characteristics associated with RVAD use included interagency registry for mechanically assisted circulatory support patient profiles 1 and 2, the need for preoperative extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or renal replacement therapy, severe preimplant tricuspid regurgitation, history of cardiac surgery, and concomitant procedures other than tricuspid valve repair at the time of LVAD. Hemodynamic determinants included elevated right atrial pressure, reduced pulmonary artery pulse pressure, and reduced stroke volume. The final model demonstrated good performance for both RVAD implant (area under the curve, 0.78) and the combined end point of RVAD or death within 14 days (area under the curve, 0.73). Compared with patients receiving an isolated LVAD, patients requiring RVAD had decreased 1- and 6-month survival: 78.1% versus 95.8% and 63.6% versus 87.9%, respectively ( P <0.0001 for both). The need for RVAD implantation after LVAD is associated with indices of global illness severity, markers of end-organ dysfunction, and profiles of hemodynamic instability. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Cyber crime: can a standard risk analysis help in the challenges facing business continuity managers?

PubMed

Vande Putte, Danny; Verhelst, Marc

Risk management has never been easy. Finding efficient mitigating measures is not always straightforward. Finding measures for cyber crime, however, is a really huge challenge because cyber threats are changing all the time. As the sophistication of these threats is growing, their impact increases. Moreover, society and its economy have become increasingly dependent on information and communication technologies. Standard risk analysis methodologies will help to score the cyber risk and to place it in the risk tolerance matrix. This will allow business continuity managers to figure out if there is still a gap with the maximum tolerable outage for time-critical business processes and if extra business continuity measures are necessary to fill the gap.

Mission Continuity Planning: Strategically Assessing and Planning for Threats to Operations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Qayoumi, Mohammad H.

This book covers the principles of risk and risk management and offers a framework for analyzing the significant, often unforeseen threats facing higher education institutions today. It examines the critical elements of a disaster preparedness plan and addresses business continuity and mission continuity planning. The book also provides tools for…

Risks for the development of outcomes related to occupational allergies: an application of the asthma-specific job exposure matrix compared with self-reports and investigator scores on job-training-related exposure.

PubMed

Suarthana, E; Heederik, D; Ghezzo, H; Malo, J-L; Kennedy, S M; Gautrin, D

2009-04-01

Risks for development of occupational sensitisation, bronchial hyper-responsiveness, rhinoconjunctival and chest symptoms at work associated with continued exposure to high molecular weight (HMW) allergens were estimated with three exposure assessment methods. A Cox regression analysis with adjustment for atopy and smoking habit was carried out in 408 apprentices in animal health technology, pastry making, and dental hygiene technology with an 8-year follow-up after training. The risk of continued exposure after training, estimated by the asthma-specific job exposure matrix (JEM), was compared with self-reports and investigator scores on job-training-related exposure. Associations between outcomes and work duration in job(s) related to training were also evaluated. Exposure to animal-derived HMW allergens, subsequent to the apprenticeship period, as estimated by the JEM, was associated with a significantly increased risk for occupational sensitisation (hazard ratio (HR) 6.4; 95% CI 2.3 to 18.2) and rhinoconjunctival symptoms at work (HR 2.6; 95% CI 1.1 to 6.2). Exposure to low molecular weight (LMW) agents significantly increased the risk of developing bronchial hyper-responsiveness (HR 2.3; 95% CI 1.1 to 5.4). Exposure verification appeared to be important to optimise the sensitivity and the specificity, as well as HRs produced by the JEM. Self-reports and investigator scores also indicated that further exposure to HMW allergens increased the risk of developing occupational allergies. The agreement between self-reports, investigator scores, and the JEM were moderate to good. There was no significant association between respiratory outcomes and work duration in jobs related to training. The asthma-specific JEM could estimate the risk of various outcomes of occupational allergies associated with exposure to HMW and LMW allergens, but it is relatively labour intensive. Exposure verification is an important integrated step in the JEM that optimised the performance of the matrix.

Can volunteering in later life reduce the risk of dementia? A 5-year longitudinal study among volunteering and non-volunteering retired seniors.

PubMed

Griep, Yannick; Hanson, Linda Magnusson; Vantilborgh, Tim; Janssens, Laurens; Jones, Samantha K; Hyde, Martin

2017-01-01

We propose that voluntary work, characterized by social, physical and cognitive activity in later life is associated with fewer cognitive problems and lower dementia rates. We test these assumptions using 3-wave, self-reported, and registry data from the 2010, 2012, and 2014 Swedish National Prescribed Drug Register. We had three groups of seniors in our data: 1) no volunteering (N = 531), 2) discontinuous volunteering (N = 220), and 3) continuous volunteering (N = 250). We conducted a path analysis in Mplus to investigate the effect of voluntary work (discontinuously and continuously) on self-reported cognitive complaints and the likelihood of being prescribed an anti-dementia treatment after controlling for baseline and relevant background variables. Our results indicated that seniors, who continuously volunteered, reported a decrease in their cognitive complaints over time, whereas no such associations were found for the other groups. In addition, they were 2.44 (95%CI [1.86; 3.21]) and 2.46 (95%CI [1,89; 3.24]) times less likely to be prescribed an anti-dementia treatment in 2012 and 2014, respectively. Our results largely support the assumptions that voluntary work in later life is associated with lower self-reported cognitive complaints and a lower risk for dementia, relative to those who do not engage, or only engage episodically in voluntary work.

Can volunteering in later life reduce the risk of dementia? A 5-year longitudinal study among volunteering and non-volunteering retired seniors

PubMed Central

Hanson, Linda Magnusson; Vantilborgh, Tim; Janssens, Laurens; Jones, Samantha K.; Hyde, Martin

2017-01-01

We propose that voluntary work, characterized by social, physical and cognitive activity in later life is associated with fewer cognitive problems and lower dementia rates. We test these assumptions using 3-wave, self-reported, and registry data from the 2010, 2012, and 2014 Swedish National Prescribed Drug Register. We had three groups of seniors in our data: 1) no volunteering (N = 531), 2) discontinuous volunteering (N = 220), and 3) continuous volunteering (N = 250). We conducted a path analysis in Mplus to investigate the effect of voluntary work (discontinuously and continuously) on self-reported cognitive complaints and the likelihood of being prescribed an anti-dementia treatment after controlling for baseline and relevant background variables. Our results indicated that seniors, who continuously volunteered, reported a decrease in their cognitive complaints over time, whereas no such associations were found for the other groups. In addition, they were 2.44 (95%CI [1.86; 3.21]) and 2.46 (95%CI [1,89; 3.24]) times less likely to be prescribed an anti-dementia treatment in 2012 and 2014, respectively. Our results largely support the assumptions that voluntary work in later life is associated with lower self-reported cognitive complaints and a lower risk for dementia, relative to those who do not engage, or only engage episodically in voluntary work. PMID:28301554

Developmental Trajectories of Cigarette Smoking from Adolescence to the Early Thirties: Personality and Behavioral Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Brook, David W.; Brook, Judith S.; Zhang, Chenshu; Whiteman, Martin; Cohen, Patricia; Finch, Stephen J.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify distinct trajectories of cigarette smoking from ages 14 to 32, and to examine adolescent personality factors that distinguish trajectories of smoking behavior. Participants (N=975) were randomly selected and followed prospectively since 1975. Follow-up data on cigarette use and personality and behavioral attributes were collected at five points in time, using structured interviews given in private by trained interviewers. Of these subjects, 746 comprised the cohort used in this study. Growth mixture modeling identified five smoking trajectory groups: nonsmokers, occasional smokers, late starters, quitters, and heavy/continuous smokers. Adolescent personality and behavioral risk factors such as lower ego integration, more externalizing behavior, and lower educational aspirations distinguished the trajectory groups. No gender differences were noted. The findings supported the hypotheses indicating multiple distinct trajectory groups of smoking behavior. Smoking behavior appeared in early adolescence and most often continued into adulthood. Emotional difficulties (i.e., lower ego integration), externalizing behavior, and lower educational aspirations in early adolescence were associated both with smoking at an early age and with continuing to smoke into the thirties. To be more effective, smoking prevention programs should target personality and behavioral variations, before smoking becomes habitual, particularly focused on characteristics reflecting behavioral problems as manifested in emotional difficulties, externalizing behavior, and low educational aspirations in early adolescence. The implications for research, prevention, and treatment are discussed. PMID:18686175

Effects of changes along the risk chain on flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duha Metin, Ayse; Apel, Heiko; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Interactions of hydrological and socio-economic factors shape flood disaster risk. For this reason, assessment of flood risk ideally takes into account the whole flood risk chain from atmospheric processes, through the catchment and river system processes to the damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Since very different processes at various scales are interacting along the flood risk, the impact of the single components is rather unclear. However for flood risk management, it is required to know the controlling factor of flood damages. The present study, using the flood-prone Mulde catchment in Germany, discusses the sensitivity of flood risk to disturbances along the risk chain: How do disturbances propagate through the risk chain? How do different disturbances combine or conflict and affect flood risk? In this sensitivity analysis, the five components of the flood risk change are included. These are climate, catchment, river system, exposure and vulnerability. A model framework representing the complete risk chain is combined with observational data to understand how the sensitivities evolve along the risk chain by considering three plausible change scenarios for each of five components. The flood risk is calculated by using the Regional Flood Model (RFM) which is based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, 1D river network, 2D hinterland inundation and damage estimation models. The sensitivity analysis covers more than 240 scenarios with different combinations of the five components. It is investigated how changes in different components affect risk indicators, such as the risk curve and expected annual damage (EAD). In conclusion, it seems that changes in exposure and vulnerability seem to outweigh changes in hazard.

Demonstrating PQS Effectiveness and Driving Continual Improvement: Evidence-Based Risk Reduction.

PubMed

Ramnarine, Emma; O'Donnell, Kevin

2018-04-18

Product knowledge grows and evolves during the life of a product. In order to maintain a state of control and deliver product with consistent quality throughout its commercial life, continuous improvement and product lifecycle management become essential. The practical link between product and process knowledge, risk-based control strategies, and continual improvement and innovation can be made stronger through evidence-based risk reduction. Regulatory relief and flexibility in post approval change management and overall product lifecycle management will only be possible with effective application of science and risk-based concepts and demonstrated effectiveness of the PQS in assuring a state of control. Copyright © 2018, Parenteral Drug Association.

Effect of xylitol versus sorbitol: a quantitative systematic review of clinical trials.

PubMed

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2012-08-01

This study aimed to appraise, within the context of tooth caries, the current clinical evidence and its risk for bias regarding the effects of xylitol in comparison with sorbitol. Databases were searched for clinical trials to 19 March 2011. Inclusion criteria required studies to: test a caries-related primary outcome; compare the effects of xylitol with those of sorbitol; describe a clinical trial with two or more arms, and utilise a prospective study design. Articles were excluded if they did not report computable data or did not follow up test and control groups in the same way. Individual dichotomous and continuous datasets were extracted from accepted articles. Selection and performance/detection bias were assessed. Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate attrition bias. Egger's regression and funnel plotting were used to investigate risk for publication bias. Nine articles were identified. Of these, eight were accepted and one was excluded. Ten continuous and eight dichotomous datasets were extracted. Because of high clinical heterogeneity, no meta-analysis was performed. Most of the datasets favoured xylitol, but this was not consistent. The accepted trials may be limited by selection bias. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate a high risk for attrition bias. The funnel plot and Egger's regression results suggest a low publication bias risk. External fluoride exposure and stimulated saliva flow may have confounded the measured anticariogenic effect of xylitol. The evidence identified in support of xylitol over sorbitol is contradictory, is at high risk for selection and attrition bias and may be limited by confounder effects. Future high-quality randomised controlled trials are needed to show whether xylitol has a greater anticariogenic effect than sorbitol. © 2012 FDI World Dental Federation.

An ecological risk assessment of nonnative boas and pythons as potentially invasive species in the United States.

PubMed

Reed, Robert N

2005-06-01

The growing international trade in live wildlife has the potential to result in continuing establishment of nonnative animal populations in the United States. Snakes may pose particularly high risks as potentially invasive species, as exemplified by the decimation of Guam's vertebrate fauna by the accidentally introduced brown tree snake. Herein, ecological and commercial predictors of the likelihood of establishment of invasive populations were used to model risk associated with legal commercial imports of 23 species of boas, pythons, and relatives into the United States during the period 1989-2000. Data on ecological variables were collected from multiple sources, while data on commercial variables were collated from import records maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Results of the risk-assessment models indicate that species including boa constrictors (Boa constrictor), ball pythons (Python regius), and reticulated pythons (P. reticulatus) may pose particularly high risks as potentially invasive species. Recommendations for reducing risk of establishment of invasive populations of snakes and/or pathogens include temporary quarantine of imports to increase detection rates of nonnative pathogens, increasing research attention to reptile pathogens, reducing the risk that nonnative snakes will reach certain areas with high numbers of federally listed species (such as the Florida Keys), and attempting to better educate individuals purchasing reptiles.

The Relationship Between HIV Risk, High-Risk Behavior, Religiosity, and Spirituality Among Black Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM): An Exploratory Study.

PubMed

Watkins, Tommie L; Simpson, Cathy; Cofield, Stacey S; Davies, Susan; Kohler, Connie; Usdan, Stuart

2016-04-01

Blacks in the USA, including black men who have sex with men (MSM), tend to have stronger religious and spiritual affiliations compared with other racial/ethnic populations. HIV and STD incidence rates continue to rise among Black MSM. Using data from the CDC Brothers y Hermanos (ByHS) project, this study examined correlations between high-risk behavior, e.g., substance use and high-risk sexual behavior (e.g., condom use history, unprotected sexual intercourse, HIV infection status, and STD infection status) religiosity, spirituality, age, among Black MSM (N = 1141). This exploratory study examined whether religiosity and spirituality were associated with high-risk behavior and high-risk sexual behavior among Black MSM. Religiosity and spirituality indices were compiled from the ByHS data. The religiosity index was significantly associated with HIV infection and use of cocaine, crack, and poppers as well as marginally associated with ecstasy use. Spirituality was significantly associated with HIV infection status, STD infection status, alcohol use, and crack use. Given these relationships, current and future HIV prevention models targeting Black MSM should consider the potential importance of the roles of religiosity and spirituality in the lives of Black MSM to increase the efficacy of risk reduction interventions.

An integrated environmental risk assessment and management framework for enhancing the sustainability of marine protected areas: the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve case study in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Xu, Elvis G B; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Morton, Brian; Lee, Joseph H W

2015-02-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs), such as marine parks and reserves, contain natural resources of immense value to the environment and mankind. Since MPAs may be situated in close proximity to urbanized areas and influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. continuous discharges of contaminated waters), the marine organisms contained in such waters are probably at risk. This study aimed at developing an integrated environmental risk assessment and management (IERAM) framework for enhancing the sustainability of such MPAs. The IERAM framework integrates conventional environmental risk assessment methods with a multi-layer-DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) conceptual approach, which can simplify the complex issues embraced by environmental management strategies and provide logical and concise management information. The IERAM process can generate a useful database, offer timely update on the status of MPAs, and assist in the prioritization of management options. We use the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve in Hong Kong as an example to illustrate the IERAM framework. A comprehensive set of indicators were selected, aggregated and analyzed using this framework. Effects of management practices and programs were also assessed by comparing the temporal distributions of these indicators over a certain timeframe. Based on the obtained results, we have identified the most significant components for safeguarding the integrity of the marine reserve, and indicated the existing information gaps concerned with the management of the reserve. Apart from assessing the MPA's present condition, a successful implementation of the IERAM framework as evocated here would also facilitate better-informed decision-making and, hence, indirectly enhance the protection and conservation of the MPA's marine biodiversity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The development of a vulnerabilities indicator library for coastal flood risk management at a European scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, Damon; Viavattene, Christophe; Priest, Sally; Micou, Paula; Parker, Dennis

2015-04-01

Recent and historic low-frequency, high-impact events (Xynthia, Ligurian Flash Floods, the 1953 North Sea storm surge etc) have demonstrated the flood risks faced by exposed coastal areas in Europe. The hazard probability is likely to increase due to a changing climate with more frequent and violent instances of surge-driven floods, wind damage, erosion, overtopping and rain-driven flash flooding. The number and value of receptors in the coastal area also increases due to continued economic development and population growth. As part of the FP7 EU RISCKIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts toolkit) project, a coastal vulnerability indicator library has been produced incorporating ecosystems, built environment, human population, critical infrastructure and the overall characteristics of the coastal system. The library will include data at European, national and local levels and will be gathered, in large part, through a multitude of interviews with various members of the coastal community at 11 case study sites across Europe. The presentation will give a brief outline of the challenges in developing vulnerability indicators - particularly for countries where specific data is limited or lacking - and how the library will be organised to facilitate the use of the data. Finally, the presentation will describe how the vulnerability library will feed into a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF). The CRAF will evaluate coastal risk at regional scale and identify "hot spots" to assist coastal practitioners to choose the best prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures for their coast. The work described in this abstract was supported by the European Community's 7th Framework Programme through the grant to the budget of RISC-KIT, contract no. 603458, and by contributions by the partner institutes.

A study of changes in genetic and environmental influences on weight and shape concern across adolescence.

PubMed

Wade, Tracey D; Hansell, Narelle K; Crosby, Ross D; Bryant-Waugh, Rachel; Treasure, Janet; Nixon, Reginald; Byrne, Susan; Martin, Nicholas G

2013-02-01

The goal of the current study was to examine whether genetic and environmental influences on an important risk factor for disordered eating, weight and shape concern, remained stable over adolescence. This stability was assessed in 2 ways: whether new sources of latent variance were introduced over development and whether the magnitude of variance contributing to the risk factor changed. We examined an 8-item WSC subscale derived from the Eating Disorder Examination (EDE) using telephone interviews with female adolescents. From 3 waves of data collected from female-female same-sex twin pairs from the Australian Twin Registry, a subset of the data (which included 351 pairs at Wave 1) was used to examine 3 age cohorts: 12 to 13, 13 to 15, and 14 to 16 years. The best-fitting model contained genetic and environmental influences, both shared and nonshared. Biometric model fitting indicated that nonshared environmental influences were largely specific to each age cohort, and results suggested that latent shared environmental and genetic influences that were influential at 12 to 13 years continued to contribute to subsequent age cohorts, with independent sources of both emerging at ages 13 to 15. The magnitude of all 3 latent influences could be constrained to be the same across adolescence. Ages 13 to 15 were indicated as a time of risk for the development of high levels of WSC, given that most specific environmental risk factors were significant at this time (e.g., peer teasing about weight, adverse life events), and indications of the emergence of new sources of latent genetic and environmental variance over this period. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farzan, Shohreh F.; Karagas, Margaret R.; Section of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Department of Community and Family Medicine and Norris Cotton Cancer Center, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, NH 03756

Background: There is a growing body of evidence that prenatal and early childhood exposure to arsenic from drinking water can have serious long-term health implications. Objectives: Our goal was to understand the potential long-term health and disease risks associated with in utero and early life exposure to arsenic, as well as to examine parallels between findings from epidemiological studies with those from experimental animal models. Methods: We examined the current literature and identified relevant studies through PubMed by using combinations of the search terms “arsenic”, “in utero”, “transplacental”, “prenatal” and “fetal”. Discussion: Ecological studies have indicated associations between in uteromore » and/or early life exposure to arsenic at high levels and increases in mortality from cancer, cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease. Additional data from epidemiologic studies suggest intermediate effects in early life that are related to risk of these and other outcomes in adulthood. Experimental animal studies largely support studies in humans, with strong evidence of transplacental carcinogenesis, atherosclerosis and respiratory disease, as well as insight into potential underlying mechanisms of arsenic's health effects. Conclusions: As millions worldwide are exposed to arsenic and evidence continues to support a role for in utero arsenic exposure in the development of a range of later life diseases, there is a need for more prospective studies examining arsenic's relation to early indicators of disease and at lower exposure levels. - Highlights: • We review in utero and early-life As exposure impacts on lifelong disease risks. • Evidence indicates that early-life As increases risks of lung disease, cancer and CVD. • Animal work largely parallels human studies and may lead to new research directions. • Prospective studies and individual exposure assessments with biomarkers are needed. • Assessing intermediary endpoints may aid early intervention and establish causality.« less

Continuing to drive while sleepy: the influence of sleepiness countermeasures, motivation for driving sleepy, and risk perception.

PubMed

Watling, Christopher N; Armstrong, Kerry A; Obst, Patricia L; Smith, Simon S

2014-12-01

Driver sleepiness is a major contributor to road crashes. The current study sought to examine the association between perceptions of effectiveness of six sleepiness countermeasures and their relationship with self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy among 309 drivers after controlling for the influence of age, sex, motivation for driving sleepy, and risk perception of sleepy driving. The results demonstrate that the variables of age, sex, motivation, and risk perception were significantly associated with self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy and only one countermeasure was associated with self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy. Further, it was found that age differences in self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy was mediated by participants' motivation and risk perception. These findings highlight modifiable factors that could be focused on with interventions that seek to modify drivers' attitudes and behaviours of driving while sleepy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ER/LA Opioid Analgesics REMS: Overview of Ongoing Assessments of Its Progress and Its Impact on Health Outcomes.

PubMed

Cepeda, M Soledad; Coplan, Paul M; Kopper, Nathan W; Maziere, Jean-Yves; Wedin, Gregory P; Wallace, Laura E

2017-01-01

Opioid abuse is a serious public health concern. In response, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) determined that a risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) for extended-release and long-acting (ER/LA) opioids was necessary to ensure that the benefits of these analgesics continue to outweigh the risks. Key components of the REMS are training for prescribers through accredited continuing education (CE), and providing patient educational materials. The impact of this REMS has been assessed using diverse metrics including evaluation of prescriber and patient understanding of the risks associated with opioids; patient receipt and comprehension of the medication guide and patient counseling document; patient satisfaction with access to opioids; drug utilization and changes in prescribing patterns; and surveillance of ER/LA opioid misuse, abuse, overdose, addiction, and death. The results of these assessments indicate that the increasing rates of opioid abuse, addiction, overdose, and death observed prior to implementation of the REMS have since leveled off or started to decline. However, these benefits cannot be attributed solely to the ER/LA opioid analgesics REMS since many other initiatives to prevent abuse occurred contemporaneously. These improvements occurred while preserving patient access to opioids as a large majority of patients surveyed expressed satisfaction with their access to opioids. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine.

ER/LA Opioid Analgesics REMS: Overview of Ongoing Assessments of Its Progress and Its Impact on Health Outcomes

PubMed Central

Cepeda, M. Soledad; Kopper, Nathan W.; Maziere, Jean-Yves; Wedin, Gregory P.; Wallace, Laura E.

2017-01-01

Objective. Opioid abuse is a serious public health concern. In response, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) determined that a risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) for extended-release and long-acting (ER/LA) opioids was necessary to ensure that the benefits of these analgesics continue to outweigh the risks. Key components of the REMS are training for prescribers through accredited continuing education (CE), and providing patient educational materials. Methods. The impact of this REMS has been assessed using diverse metrics including evaluation of prescriber and patient understanding of the risks associated with opioids; patient receipt and comprehension of the medication guide and patient counseling document; patient satisfaction with access to opioids; drug utilization and changes in prescribing patterns; and surveillance of ER/LA opioid misuse, abuse, overdose, addiction, and death. Results and Conclusions. The results of these assessments indicate that the increasing rates of opioid abuse, addiction, overdose, and death observed prior to implementation of the REMS have since leveled off or started to decline. However, these benefits cannot be attributed solely to the ER/LA opioid analgesics REMS since many other initiatives to prevent abuse occurred contemporaneously. These improvements occurred while preserving patient access to opioids as a large majority of patients surveyed expressed satisfaction with their access to opioids. PMID:27373304

Cryptosporidium surveillance and risk factors in the United States.

PubMed

Yoder, Jonathan S; Beach, Michael J

2010-01-01

Surveillance for Cryptosporidium in the United States indicates that the reported incidence of infection has increased dramatically since 2004. The reasons for this increase are unclear but might be caused by an actual increase in incidence, improved surveillance, improved awareness about cryptosporidiosis, and/or increases in testing practices resulting from the licensing of the first-ever treatment for cryptosporidiosis. While regional differences remain, the incidence of cryptosporidiosis appears to be increasing across the United States. Onset of illness is most common during the summer, particularly among younger children. Cryptosporidiosis case reporting also influences outbreak detection and reporting; the recent rise in cases coincides with an increase in the number of reported cryptosporidiosis outbreaks, particularly in treated recreational water venues. Risk factors include ingesting contaminated recreational or drinking water, exposure to infected animals, having close contacts with cryptosporidiosis, travel to disease-endemic areas, and ingestion of contaminated food. Advances in molecular characterization of clinical specimens have improved our understanding of the changing epidemiology and risk factors. Prevention and control of cryptosporidiosis requires continued efforts to interrupt the transmission of Cryptosporidium through water, food, and contact with infected persons or animals. Of particular importance is continued improvement and monitoring of drinking water treatment and advances in the design, operation, and management of recreational water venues coupled with behavioral changes among the swimming public. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The role of fathers in child and adolescent psychopathology: make room for daddy.

PubMed

Phares, V; Compas, B E

1992-05-01

This review summarizes research concerning the relation between paternal factors and child and adolescent psychopathology. When compared with mothers, fathers continue to be dramatically underrepresented in developmental research on psychopathology. However, findings from studies of children of clinically referred fathers and nonreferred samples of children and their fathers indicate that there is substantial association between paternal characteristics and child and adolescent psychopathology. Findings from studies of fathers of clinically referred children are stronger for fathers' effects on children's externalizing than internalizing problems. In most cases the degree of risk associated with paternal psychopathology is comparable to that associated with maternal psychopathology. Evidence indicates that the presence of paternal psychopathology is a sufficient but not necessary condition for child or adolescent psychopathology.

HIV/AIDS among adolescents in Eastern Europe: knowledge of HIV/AIDS, social representations of risk and sexual activity among school children and homeless adolescents in Russia, Georgia and the Ukraine.

PubMed

Goodwin, Robin; Kozlova, Alexandra; Nizharadze, George; Polyakova, Galina

2004-05-01

The two studies reported here focus on knowledge and representations of HIV/AIDS (study 1) plus sexual behaviour and hedonistic values (study 2) among 14-17-year-old school children and similar aged shelter children. Results indicate that shelter children are more sexually active, less knowledgeable about means of HIV transmission and are more likely to hold stereotyped representations of those most at risk of infection. Russian respondents were the most sexually active, a finding which could at least be partly explained by their higher levels of hedonistic values. These findings are discussed in the context of a climate of continuing social change in this region.

Associations between adolescent risk for restrictive disordered eating and long-term outcomes related to somatic symptoms, body mass index, and poor well-being.

PubMed

Landstedt, Evelina; Hammarström, Anne; Fairweather-Schmidt, A Kate; Wade, Tracey

2018-05-01

To date, no longitudinal, community-based studies have examined the association between disordered eating emerging in adolescence and long-term physical well-being. This study sought to explore the longitudinal associations between risk for restrictive disordered eating (DE-R; those not presenting with binge-purge symptoms) in adolescence and trajectories of functional somatic symptoms (FSS) and body mass index (BMI), and several indicators of poor physical well-being across early- to mid-adulthood, including medication, number of doctor visits, and sick leave. Data were obtained from the Northern Swedish Cohort Study (N = 1,001), a prospective longitudinal study including four time points from age 16 to 42 years. A cumulative measure of DE-R risk was computed. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify subpopulation trajectories of FSS and BMI. The three-step method for auxiliary variables and logistic regressions were used to assess associations between DE-R and the trajectory classes as well as indicators of poor physical well-being. Three trajectories were identified for FSS. A gender by BMI interaction led to a classification of four BMI trajectories in men, but three in women. The presence of DE-R risk in adolescence increased odds of unfavourable FSS development, increasing BMI in women, and continually low BMI in men. Indicators of poor physical well-being at ages 21, 30, and 42 years were associated with DE-R risk in adolescence. Data spanning nearly three decades suggest that physical well-being impairment is related to DE-R risk measured earlier in life, underscoring the urgency for targeted, gender-sensitive preventive interventions for teenagers. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Disordered eating is linked to poor physical and mental well-being and quality of life. No longitudinal studies have examined long-term physical well-being consequences of adolescent disordered eating risk. What does this study add? Non-purging disordered eating symptoms in adolescence predict adverse physical well-being outcomes in middle-aged men and women. Targeted interventions and preventative work during adolescence are needed. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Current recommendations: what is the clinician to do?

PubMed

Manson, Joann E

2014-04-01

Menopausal hormone therapy (HT) has complex biologic effects but continues to have an important clinical role in the management of vasomotor and other menopausal symptoms. The rational use of menopausal HT requires balancing the potential benefits and risks of treatment. Findings from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) and other randomized clinical trials have helped to clarify the benefits and risks of HT and have provided insights to improve decision making. Several clinical characteristics have utility in identifying women for whom benefits of HT are likely to outweigh the risks. Age and time since menopause are strong predictors of health outcomes and absolute risks associated with HT, and differences by age have been particularly apparent for estrogen alone. In the WHI trial of conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) alone, younger women (50-59 years) had more favorable results for all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and the global index, but not for stroke and venous thrombosis. Age trends were less clear for CEE + medroxyprogesterone acetate, owing to increased risks of breast cancer, stroke, and venous thrombosis in all age groups. Absolute risks of adverse events were lower in younger than in older women in both trials, however. Other predictors of lower vascular risk from HT include favorable lipid status and absence of the metabolic syndrome. Transdermal administration may be associated with lower risks of venous thrombosis and stroke, but additional research is needed. The use of risk stratification and personalized risk assessment offers promise for improved benefit-risk profile and safety of HT. One approach to decision making is presented. Key elements include: assessment of whether the patient has moderate to severe menopausal symptoms, the primary indication for initiating systemic HT (vaginal estrogen may be used to treat genitourinary symptoms in the absence of vasomotor symptoms); understanding the patient's own preference regarding therapy; evaluating the patient for the presence of any contraindications to HT, as well as the time since menopause onset and baseline risks of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer; reviewing carefully the benefits and risks of treatment with the patient, giving more emphasis to absolute than to relative measures of effect; and, if HT is initiated, regularly reviewing the patient's need for continued treatment. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013-2052.

PubMed

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Cochi, Stephen L; Wassilak, Steven G F; Thompson, Kimberly M

2015-09-24

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative plans for coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) after interrupting all wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission, but many questions remain related to long-term poliovirus risk management policies. We used an integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to simulate possible futures and estimate the health and economic outcomes of maintaining the 2013 status quo of continued OPV use in most developing countries compared with OPV cessation policies with various assumptions about global inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) adoption. Continued OPV use after global WPV eradication leads to continued high costs and/or high cases. Global OPV cessation comes with a high probability of at least one outbreak, which aggressive outbreak response can successfully control in most instances. A low but non-zero probability exists of uncontrolled outbreaks following a poliovirus reintroduction long after OPV cessation in a population in which IPV-alone cannot prevent poliovirus transmission. We estimate global incremental net benefits during 2013-2052 of approximately $16 billion (US$2013) for OPV cessation with at least one IPV routine immunization dose in all countries until 2024 compared to continued OPV use, although significant uncertainty remains associated with the frequency of exportations between populations and the implementation of long term risk management policies. Global OPV cessation offers the possibility of large future health and economic benefits compared to continued OPV use. Long-term poliovirus risk management interventions matter (e.g., IPV use duration, outbreak response, containment, continued surveillance, stockpile size and contents, vaccine production site requirements, potential antiviral drugs, and potential safer vaccines) and require careful consideration. Risk management activities can help to ensure a low risk of uncontrolled outbreaks and preserve or further increase the positive net benefits of OPV cessation. Important uncertainties will require more research, including characterizing immunodeficient long-term poliovirus excretor risks, containment risks, and the kinetics of outbreaks and response in an unprecedented world without widespread live poliovirus exposure.

Continuous-flow automation and hemolysis index: a crucial combination.

PubMed

Lippi, Giuseppe; Plebani, Mario

2013-04-01

A paradigm shift has occurred in the role and organization of laboratory diagnostics over the past decades, wherein consolidation or networking of small laboratories into larger factories and point-of-care testing have simultaneously evolved and now seem to favorably coexist. There is now evidence, however, that the growing implementation of continuous-flow automation, especially in closed systems, has not eased the identification of hemolyzed specimens since the integration of preanalytical and analytical workstations would hide them from visual scrutiny, with an inherent risk that unreliable test results may be released to the stakeholders. Along with other technical breakthroughs, the new generation of laboratory instrumentation is increasingly equipped with systems that can systematically and automatically be tested for a broad series of interferences, the so-called serum indices, which also include the hemolysis index. The routine implementation of these technical tools in clinical laboratories equipped with continuous-flow automation carries several advantages and some drawbacks that are discussed in this article.

Spatial modeling of wild bird risk factors to investigate highly pathogenic A(H5N1) avian influenza virus transmission

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prosser, Diann J.; Hungerford, Laura L.; Erwin, R. Michael; Ottinger, Mary Ann; Takekawa, John Y.; Newman, Scott H.; Xiao, Xianming; Ellis, Erie C.

2016-01-01

One of the longest-persisting avian influenza viruses in history, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A(H5N1), continues to evolve after 18 years, advancing the threat of a global pandemic. Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae), are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV, and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using GIS and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 and 30 km resolutions and for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance across species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on prevalence values then totaled across species. Spatial patterns of the model output differed between seasons, with higher WAB and WPR in the northern and western regions of China for the breeding season and in the southeast for the wintering season. Uncertainty measures indicated highest error in southeastern China for both WAB and WPR. We also explored the effect of resampling waterfowl layers from 1 km to 30 km resolution for multi-scale risk modeling. Results indicated low average difference (less than 0.16 and 0.01 standard deviations for WAB and WPR, respectively), with greatest differences in the north for the breeding season and southeast for the wintering season. This work provides the first geospatial models of waterfowl abundance available for China. The indices provide important inputs for modeling disease transmission risk at the interface of poultry and wild birds. These models are easily adaptable, have broad utility to both disease and conservation needs, and will be available to the scientific community for advanced modeling applications.

Earthquake risk perception in Bucharest, Romania.

PubMed

Armaş, Iuliana

2006-10-01

The Municipality of Bucharest is one of the capitals with the highest seismic risk in the world. Bucharest is particularly vulnerable to seismic hazard due to: the high density of inhabitants, especially within the residential districts with blocks of flats; the old public utility fund; the out-of-date infrastructure; the numerous industrial parks that are undergoing a restructuring process, not to mention the inefficient organization of civil protection and poor education of the population regarding seismic risk. This research was designed to examine the attitudes and perceptions of people living with the risk of an earthquake hazard in Bucharest. We were interested in how attitudes and perceptions differ depending on gender, age, education, residential area and socioeconomic status, characteristics of seismic hazard, degree of risk exposure, degree of danger, and casualty awareness. At the same time, we compare the results of this study with those from a previous and similar enquiry in 1997. The statistical processing has indicated a significant difference between the declared perception of seismic risk and the independent variables of gender, age, level of education, level of attachment to the residential area, and degree to which the subjects consider they may be affected and could retrieve their losses. Due to the continuous decrease of their living standard, the most vulnerable is the aged population. The feelings toward the residential area is another factor of statistical significance for the population's seismic danger perception. A strong affective bond offers a feeling of safety and leads to the neglect and even total denial of the hazard. In the case of independent variables regarding the type of dwelling, its age, and property form, deviations of empiric values from the theoretical distribution are not relevant for the correlation searched for, which indicates that this issue goes beyond the above-mentioned criteria.

Prognostic discrimination in "good-risk" chronic granulocytic leukemia.

PubMed

Sokal, J E; Cox, E B; Baccarani, M; Tura, S; Gomez, G A; Robertson, J E; Tso, C Y; Braun, T J; Clarkson, B D; Cervantes, F

1984-04-01

The prognostic significance of disease features recorded at the time of diagnosis was examined among 813 patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive, nonblastic chronic granulocytic leukemia (CGL) collected from six European and American series. The survival pattern for this population was typical of "good-risk" patients, and median survival was 47 mo. There were multiple interrelationships among different disease features, which led to highly significant correlations with survival for some that had no primary prognostic significance, such as hematocrit. Multivariable regression analysis indicated that spleen size and the percentage of circulating blasts were the most important prognostic indicators. These features, and age, behaved as continuous variables with progressively unfavorable import at higher values. The platelet count did not influence survival significantly at values below 700 X 10(9)/liter but was increasingly unfavorable above this level. Basophils plus eosinophils over 15%, more than 5% marrow blasts, and karyotypic abnormalities in addition to the Ph1 were also significant unfavorable signs. The Cox model, generated with four variables representing percent blasts, spleen size, platelet count, and age, provided a useful representation of risk status in this population, with good fit between predicted and observed survival over more than a twofold survival range. A hazard function derived from half of the patient population successfully segregated the remainder into three groups with significantly different survival patterns. We conclude that it should be possible to identify a lower risk group of patients with a 2-yr survival of 90%, subsequent risk averaging somewhat less than 20%/yr and median survival of 5 yr, an intermediate group, and a high-risk group with a 2-yr survival of 65%, followed by a death rate of about 35%/yr and median survival of 2.5 yr.

2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society Guidelines for the Management of Dyslipidemia for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in the Adult.

PubMed

Anderson, Todd J; Grégoire, Jean; Pearson, Glen J; Barry, Arden R; Couture, Patrick; Dawes, Martin; Francis, Gordon A; Genest, Jacques; Grover, Steven; Gupta, Milan; Hegele, Robert A; Lau, David C; Leiter, Lawrence A; Lonn, Eva; Mancini, G B John; McPherson, Ruth; Ngui, Daniel; Poirier, Paul; Sievenpiper, John L; Stone, James A; Thanassoulis, George; Ward, Richard

2016-11-01

Since the publication of the 2012 guidelines new literature has emerged to inform decision-making. The 2016 guidelines primary panel selected a number of clinically relevant questions and has produced updated recommendations, on the basis of important new findings. In subjects with clinical atherosclerosis, abdominal aortic aneurysm, most subjects with diabetes or chronic kidney disease, and those with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥ 5 mmol/L, statin therapy is recommended. For all others, there is an emphasis on risk assessment linked to lipid determination to optimize decision-making. We have recommended nonfasting lipid determination as a suitable alternative to fasting levels. Risk assessment and lipid determination should be considered in individuals older than 40 years of age or in those at increased risk regardless of age. Pharmacotherapy is generally not indicated for those at low Framingham Risk Score (FRS; <10%). A wider range of patients are now eligible for statin therapy in the FRS intermediate risk category (10%-19%) and in those with a high FRS (> 20%). Despite the controversy, we continue to advocate for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol targets for subjects who start therapy. Detailed recommendations are also presented for health behaviour modification that is indicated in all subjects. Finally, recommendation for the use of nonstatin medications is provided. Shared decision-making is vital because there are many areas in which clinical trials do not fully inform practice. The guidelines are meant to be a platform for meaningful conversation between patient and care provider so that individual decisions can be made for risk screening, assessment, and treatment. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in nitrogen budget and potential risk to the environment over 20years (1990-2010) in the agroecosystems of the Haihe Basin, China.

PubMed

Zheng, Mengmeng; Zheng, Hua; Wu, Yingxia; Xiao, Yi; Du, Yihua; Xu, Weihua; Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiaoke; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2015-02-01

The nitrogen balance can serve as an indicator of the risk to the environment of nitrogen loss from agricultural land. To investigate the temporal and spatial changes in agricultural nitrogen application and its potential threat to the environment of the Haihe Basin in China, we used a database of county-level agricultural statistics to calculate agricultural nitrogen input, output, surplus intensity, and use efficiency. Chemical fertilizer nitrogen input increased by 51.7% from 1990 to 2000 and by 37.2% from 2000 to 2010, concomitant with increasing crop yields. Simultaneously, the nitrogen surplus intensity increased by 53.5% from 1990 to 2000 and by 16.5% from 2000 to 2010, presenting a continuously increased environmental risk. Nitrogen use efficiency decreased from 0.46 in 1990 to 0.42 in 2000 and remained constant at 0.42 in 2010, partly due to fertilizer composition and type improvement. This level indicates that more than half of nitrogen inputs are lost in agroecosystems. Our results suggest that although the improvement in fertilizer composition and types has partially offset the decrease in nitrogen use efficiency, the environmental risk has still increased gradually over the past 20 years, along with the increase in crop yields and nitrogen application. It is important to achieve a better nitrogen balance through more effective management to significantly reduce the environmental risk, decrease nitrogen surplus intensity, and increase nitrogen use efficiency without sacrificing crop yields. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Beating Obesity: Factors Associated with Interest in Workplace Weight Management Assistance in the Mining Industry.

PubMed

Street, Tamara D; Thomas, Drew L

2017-03-01

Rates of overweight and obese Australians are high and continue to rise, putting a large proportion of the population at risk of chronic illness. Examining characteristics associated with preference for a work-based weight-loss program will enable employers to better target programs to increase enrolment and benefit employees' health and fitness for work. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken at two Australian mining sites. The survey collected information on employee demographics, health characteristics, work characteristics, stages of behavior change, and preference for workplace assistance with reaching a healthy weight. A total of 897 employees participated; 73.7% were male, and 68% had a body mass index in the overweight or obese range. Employees at risk of developing obesity-related chronic illnesses (based on high body mass index) were more likely to report preference for weight management assistance than lower risk employees. This indicates that, even in the absence of workplace promotion for weight management, some at risk employees want workplace assistance. Employees who were not aware of a need to change their current nutrition or physical activity behaviors were less likely to seek assistance. This indicates that practitioners need to communicate the negative effects of excess weight and promote the benefits of a healthy lifestyle to increase the likelihood of weight management. Weight management programs should provide information, motivation. and trouble-shooting assistance to meet the needs of at-risk mining employees, including those who are attempting to change and maintain behaviors to achieve a healthy weight and be suitably fit for work.

A continuation of the Asia-Pacific Risk Index for natural disasters: extending the record for an updated analysis from 1900-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Daniell, Trevor; Daniell, Katherine; Khazai, Bijan; Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann

2016-04-01

In 2010, an Asia-Pacific risk index was created for the CECAR5 (Civil Engineering Conference for the Asia-Pacific Region) by Daniell et al. (2010a) for floods and earthquakes, using empirical and analytical risk data for direct as well as socio-economic community vulnerability. The socio-economic situation of countries can aggravate the physical risk of natural disaster impacts, as demonstrated by the impacts of earthquakes in Christchurch and Tohoku 2011; add to this a number of deadly typhoon (Haiyan 2013), cyclone (Yasi 2011), flood (Thailand 2011), bushfire and weather effects, and significant changes to the index in 2010 have been seen. At least 10,000 historical events have been recorded since 1900 across the Asia-Pacific region (western Pacific). The database for global socio-economic indicators was produced to allow comparison of countries in terms of their socio-economic situation for use in risk studies. In addition, a global damaging natural disasters database (CATDAT) has been created over the last 14 years to better understand the historical impact of natural disasters on the Asia-Pacific region as well as globally. Simplified hazard models have been used in conjunction with historical damage data added to human exposure. Post-flood and post-typhoon loss models have been produced this methodology. The relative country level rural and urban building inventories and historical building trends are used to define levels of vulnerability, exposure and hazard. From this, physical and community risk indices are derived for the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. It was found that the vulnerabilities in communities of developing countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines can further intensify the impact from direct damages by many times, showing the increased need for earthquake and flood risk reduction policy. Trends based on HDI and other indicators within the fields of economy, poverty, demographics, governance and environment are also presented, showing the influence of these factors on country-level fragility and resilience showing Philippines and Japan to be the highest at risk countries in absolute and relative terms. (a) Daniell, J.E., Daniell, K.A., Daniell, T.M. & B. Khazai: A country level physical and community risk index in the Asia-Pacific region for earthquakes and floods, Paper No. 0392, 5th CECAR Conference Proceedings, Sydney, Australia, 2010.

Risk determinants of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SMEs) - an exploratory study in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Ariful; Tedford, Des

2012-08-01

The smooth running of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SMEs) presents a significant challenge irrespective of the technological and human resources they may have at their disposal. SMEs continuously encounter daily internal and external undesirable events and unwanted setbacks to their operations that detract from their business performance. These are referred to as `disturbances' in our research study. Among the disturbances, some are likely to create risks to the enterprises in terms of loss of production, manufacturing capability, human resource, market share, and, of course, economic losses. These are finally referred to as `risk determinant' on the basis of their correlation with some risk indicators, which are linked to operational, occupational, and economic risks. To deal with these risk determinants effectively, SMEs need a systematic method of approach to identify and treat their potential effects along with an appropriate set of tools. However, initially, a strategic approach is required to identify typical risk determinants and their linkage with potential business risks. In this connection, we conducted this study to explore the answer to the research question: what are the typical risk determinants encountered by SMEs? We carried out an empirical investigation with a multi-method research approach (a combination of a questionnaire-based mail survey involving 212 SMEs and five in-depth case studies) in New Zealand. This paper presents a set of typical internal and external risk determinants, which need special attention to be dealt with to minimize operational risks of an SME.

Sustaining a Mature Risk Management Process: Ensuring the International Space Station for a Vibrant Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raftery, Michael; Carter-Journet, Katrina

2013-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) risk management methodology is an example of a mature and sustainable process. Risk management is a systematic approach used to proactively identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate, and document risks to help management make risk-informed decisions that increase the likelihood of achieving program objectives. The ISS has been operating in space for over 14 years and permanently crewed for over 12 years. It is the longest surviving habitable vehicle in low Earth orbit history. Without a mature and proven risk management plan, it would be increasingly difficult to achieve mission success throughout the life of the ISS Program. A successful risk management process must be able to adapt to a dynamic program. As ISS program-level decision processes have evolved, so too has the ISS risk management process continued to innovate, improve, and adapt. Constant adaptation of risk management tools and an ever-improving process is essential to the continued success of the ISS Program. Above all, sustained support from program management is vital to risk management continued effectiveness. Risk management is valued and stressed as an important process by the ISS Program.

Patterns of change in withdrawal symptoms, desire to smoke, reward motivation and response inhibition across 3 months of smoking abstinence.

PubMed

Dawkins, Lynne; Powell, Jane H; Pickering, Alan; Powell, John; West, Robert

2009-05-01

We have demonstrated previously that acute smoking abstinence is associated with lowered reward motivation and impaired response inhibition. This prospective study explores whether these impairments, along with withdrawal-related symptoms, recover over 3 months of sustained abstinence. Participants completed a 12-hour abstinent baseline assessment and were then allocated randomly to quit unaided or continue smoking. All were re-tested after 7 days, 1 month and 3 months. Successful quitters' scores were compared with those of continuing smokers, who were tested after ad libitum smoking. Goldsmiths, University of London. A total of 33 smokers who maintained abstinence to 3 months, and 31 continuing smokers. Indices demonstrated previously in this cohort of smokers to be sensitive to the effect of nicotine versus acute abstinence: reward motivation [Snaith-Hamilton pleasure scale (SHAPS), Card Arranging Reward Responsivity Objective Test (CARROT), Stroop], tasks of response inhibition [anti-saccade task; Continuous Performance Task (CPT)], clinical indices of mood [Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS)], withdrawal symptoms [Mood and Physical Symptoms Scale (MPSS)] and desire to smoke. SHAPS anhedonia and reward responsivity (CARROT) showed significant improvement and plateaued after a month of abstinence, not differing from the scores of continuing smokers tested in a satiated state. Mood, other withdrawal symptoms and desire to smoke all declined from acute abstinence to 1 month of cessation and were equivalent to, or lower than, the levels reported by continuing, satiated smokers. Neither group showed a change in CPT errors over time while continuing smokers, but not abstainers, showed improved accuracy on the anti-saccade task at 3 months. Appetitive processes and related affective states appear to improve in smokers who remain nicotine-free for 3 months, whereas response inhibition does not. Although in need of replication, the results suggest tentatively that poor inhibitory control may constitute a long-term risk factor for relapse and could be a target for intervention.

Benefits and risks of shared services in healthcare.

PubMed

Kennewell, Suzanne; Baker, Laura

2016-05-16

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the experiences of staff in a large, public health service involved in transitioning support services to a shared services model. It aims to understand their perceptions of the benefits and risks arising from this change. Design/methodology/approach - Thematic analysis of qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with both service provider and customer agency staff was used to identify, analyze and report patterns of benefits and risks within data. Findings - Staff expressed the need for relevant subject-matter-experts to work within customer agencies to facilitate effective communication between the customer agency and shared services provider, reflecting observations found in out-sourcing literature. Research limitations/implications - Results point to significant challenges continuing to occur for shared services in healthcare. Risks identified suggest a more intimate relationship between clinical and support services than previously discussed. Originality/value - Previous discussion of the shared services model has not considered the skills, knowledge and ability required by staff in the customer agency. This research indicates that in the absence of such consideration, the concepts of the shared services model are weakened.

Impaired risk evaluation in people with Internet gaming disorder: fMRI evidence from a probability discounting task.

PubMed

Lin, Xiao; Zhou, Hongli; Dong, Guangheng; Du, Xiaoxia

2015-01-02

This study examined how Internet gaming disorder (IGD) subjects modulating reward and risk at a neural level under a probability-discounting task with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Behavioral and imaging data were collected from 19 IGD subjects (22.2 ± 3.08 years) and 21 healthy controls (HC, 22.8 ± 3.5 years). Behavior results showed that IGD subjects prefer the probabilistic options to fixed ones and were associated with shorter reaction time, when comparing to HC. The fMRI results revealed that IGD subjects show decreased activation in the inferior frontal gyrus and the precentral gyrus when choosing the probabilistic options than HC. Correlations were also calculated between behavioral performances and brain activities in relevant brain regions. Both of the behavioral performance and fMRI results indicate that people with IGD show impaired risk evaluation, which might be the reason why IGD subjects continue playing online games despite the risks of widely known negative consequence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Role of Surgery and Radiation Therapy in the Management of Gestational Trophoblastic Disease

PubMed Central

Hanna, Rabbie K.

2010-01-01

The primary management of hydatidiform moles remains surgical evacuation followed by human chorionic gonadotropin level monitoring. Although suction dilatation and evacuation is the most frequent technique for molar evacuation, hysterectomy is a viable option in older patients who do not wish to preserve fertility. Despite advances in chemotherapy regimens for treating malignant gestational trophoblastic neoplasia, hysterectomy and other extirpative procedures continue to play a role in the management of patients with both low-risk and high-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia. Primary hysterectomy can reduce the amount of chemotherapy required to treat low-risk disease, whereas surgical resections, including hysterectomy, pulmonary resections, and other extirpative procedures, can be invaluable for treating highly selected patients with persistent, drug-resistant disease. Radiation therapy is also often incorporated into the multimodality therapy of patients with high-risk metastatic disease. This review discusses the indications for and the role of surgical interventions during the management of women with hydatidiform moles and malignant gestational trophoblastic neoplasia and reviews the use of radiation therapy in the treatment of women with malignant gestational trophoblastic neoplasia. PMID:20495216

Weekly variations in feelings of trust predict incident STI within a prospective cohort of adolescent women from a US city.

PubMed

Matson, Pamela A; Fortenberry, J Dennis; Chung, Shang-En; Gaydos, Charlotte A; Ellen, Jonathan M

2018-03-24

Feelings of intimacy, perceptions of partner concurrency (PPC) and perceptions of risk for an STD (PRSTD) are meaningful and dynamic attributes of adolescent sexual relationships. Our objective was to examine whether variations in these STI-associated feelings and perceptions predicted incident Chlamydia trachomatis and/or Neisseriagonorrhoeae infection within a prospective cohort of urban adolescent women. A cohort of clinic-recruited women aged 16-19 completed daily surveys on feelings and risk perceptions about each current sex partner on a smartphone continuously for up to 18 months. Urine was tested for C. trachomatis and N. gonorrhoeae every 3 months. Daily responses were averaged across the week. As overall means for trust, closeness and commitment were high, data were coded to indicate any decrease in feelings from the previous week. PRSTD and PPC were reverse coded to indicate any increase from the previous week. An index was created to examine the cumulative effect of variation in these feelings and perceptions. Generalised linear models were used to account for correlation among repeated measures within relationships. For each week that there was a decrease in trust, there was a 45% increase in the risk of being infected with an STI at follow-up (relative risk (RR) 1.45, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.78, P=0.004). Neither a decrease in closeness or commitment, nor an increase in PRSTD or PPC was associated with an STI outcome. Cumulatively, the index measure indicated that a change in an additional feeling or perception over the week increased the odds of an STI by 14% (RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.29, P=0.026). A decrease in feelings of trust towards a main partner may be a more sensitive indicator of STI risk than PRSTD, PPC or commitment. The next generation of behavioural interventions for youth will need strategies to address feelings of intimacy within adolescent romantic relationships. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Strategies for continuous evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of HPV-16/18-AS04-adjuvanted vaccine.

PubMed

Angelo, Maria-Genalin; Taylor, Sylvia; Struyf, Frank; Tavares Da Silva, Fernanda; Arellano, Felix; David, Marie-Pierre; Dubin, Gary; Rosillon, Dominique; Baril, Laurence

2014-11-01

The HPV types 16/18-AS04-adjuvanted cervical cancer vaccine, Cervarix(®) (HPV-16/18-vaccine, GlaxoSmithKline, Belgium) was first approved in 2007 and is licensed in 134 countries for the prevention of persistent infection, premalignant cervical lesions and cervical cancer caused by oncogenic HPV. Benefit-risk status requires continual re-evaluation as vaccine uptake increases, as the epidemiology of the disease evolves and as new information becomes available. This paper provides an example of benefit-risk considerations and risk-management planning. Evaluation of the benefit-risk of HPV-16/18-vaccine post-licensure includes studies with a range of designs in many countries and in collaboration with national public agencies and regulatory authorities. The strategy to assess benefit versus risk will continue to evolve and adapt to the changing HPV-16/18-vaccine market.

The role of physicians in a community-wide program for prevention of cardiovascular disease: the Minnesota Heart Health Program.

PubMed Central

Mittelmark, M B; Leupker, R V; Grimm, R; Kottke, T E; Blackburn, H

1988-01-01

The Minnesota Heart Health Program (MHHP) aims to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality by reducing risk factors among the mass of residents in three midwestern communities. A major aspect of the program is the involvement of community physicians because they have high credibility as citizen leaders, especially on health issues. In the MHHP, physicians contributed in a number of ways. The initial contacts with physicians resulted in their providing support and introductions to other community leaders, whose active support was also gained. Physicians sit as members of the central Community Advisory Borads of MHHP and serve on the executive committees of these boards. All MHHP issues related to medical practice are brought before Physicians' Advisory Groups in each community for resolution. Primary care physicians attend MHHP continuing education programs. In a survey of 109 physicians in one of the MHHP communities, 95 percent of respondents believed cigarette smoking to be an important risk factor for CVD, but only 15 percent judged themselves to be effective in dealing with patients who smoked. Forty-one percent of respondents said that elevated blood cholesterol is an important risk factor, but only 20 percent felt effective in treating the condition. Only 18 percent of the physicians in the sample believed that a poor eating pattern plays a substantial role in CVD, and 9 percent felt effective in counseling patients about eating habits. This pattern of results indicates the need not only for continuing education about risk factors for CVD, but also for training to improve patient counseling skills. PMID:3136495

New lasers and light sources - old and new risks?

PubMed

Paasch, Uwe; Schwandt, Antje; Seeber, Nikolaus; Kautz, Gerd; Grunewald, Sonja; Haedersdal, Merete

2017-05-01

Recent developments (new wavelengths, treatment concepts, and combinations) in the field of lasers, intense pulsed light (IPL), LED, as well as new energy and light sources have opened up new therapeutic options that extend beyond mere aesthetic indications. Thus, while fractional lasers used to be employed to merely treat wrinkles, the same devices - in the context of laser-assisted drug delivery - have now become important tools in the treatment of scars, field cancerization, and epithelial tumors. The requirements posed to physicians, both with respect to establishing the indication and conducting treatment, have been growing along with the increase in technological complexity as well as the rising number of comorbidities and comedications in a patient population that continues to age. At the same time, home-use devices have been introduced for a variety of indications. These devices are characterized by low power and special safety features aimed at preventing accidents, risks, and side effects. Despite the reduced efficacy of such self-treatment devices, there is an increased risk of misuse, given that the basic prerequisite for adequate treatment cannot be ensured, to wit, the exact diagnosis and therapeutic indication. Consequently, during hair removal or anti-wrinkle treatment, pigmented lesions and cutaneous neoplasms may be altered, thus giving rise to expected, unexpected and new side effects and complications. In the aforementioned setting, it is important that all potential users of these new technologies be properly trained in a manner that ensures those treated a maximum of safety and efficacy in accordance with the guiding principle "diagnosis certa - ullae therapiae fundamentum". © 2017 Deutsche Dermatologische Gesellschaft (DDG). Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Electroconvulsive therapy for major depression in borderline personality disorder].

PubMed

Gescher, D M; Malevani, J

2012-03-01

Depressive disorder is a serious and frequent complication in borderline personality disorder (BPD), however, its severity tends to be neglected particularly if symptoms are short-lived or inconsistent as is common in patients with BPD. Yet the high frequency in these patients requires especially rapid and effective therapy to reduce the risks of vital endangerment, chronification and psychosocial impairment. Efficient crisis intervention is essential for continuity of the disease-specific multimodal therapy enabling lasting remission and social and vocational rehabilitation in BPD. In particular with regard to the high incidence of poor or failed pharmacological responses in patients with BPD, electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is of significant relevance among antidepressant treatment options. Despite the wide consensus on its efficacy, there are only few selected trials on ECT for major depression (MD) in BPD. This review summarises the published original studies on this issue, and critically scrutinises indication, benefits and risks of ECT for MD in BPD. It contributes to a focused, discriminating view on ECT and thus enables an optimised patient-oriented, efficient indication for MD in BPD. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Distribution of metals and metalloids in dried seaweeds and health risk to population in southeastern China.

PubMed

Chen, Qing; Pan, Xiao-Dong; Huang, Bai-Fen; Han, Jian-Long

2018-02-23

Concern about metals and metalloids, especially heavy metals in seaweeds has risen due to potential health risk. This study investigated the distribution of 10 metals and metalloids in 295 dried seaweeds (brown and red) and estimated the possible health risk via hazard index (HI). Elements in seaweeds can be sequenced in descending order by mean values: Al > Mn > As > Cu > Cr > Ni > Cd > Se > Pb > Hg. The levels of Cd, Cu, Mn and Ni in red seaweeds were significantly higher than those in brown seaweeds (P < 0.01). Correlation analysis showed contents of Ni-Cr (r = 0.59, P < 0.01) in seaweeds had moderate positive correlations. Seaweeds from different geographical origins had diverse element distribution. Risk assessment showed that HI at mean level was less than the threshold of 1. It indicates that for the general people there is low health risk to these elements by the intake of seaweeds. Furthermore, in terms of the confirmative toxicity of some metals, such as Cd, Pb and Hg, surveillance of metals in seaweeds should be performed continuously.

From the Medical Board of the National Psoriasis Foundation: Perioperative management of systemic immunomodulatory agents in patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis.

PubMed

Choi, Young M; Debbaneh, Maya; Weinberg, Jeffrey M; Yamauchi, Paul S; Van Voorhees, Abby S; Armstrong, April W; Siegel, Michael; Wu, Jashin J

2016-10-01

Treatment with systemic immunomodulatory agents is indicated for patients with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis. In these patients, surgery may confer an increased risk of infectious or surgical complications. We conducted a literature review to examine studies addressing the use of methotrexate, cyclosporine, and targeted immunomodulatory agents (tumor necrosis factor-alfa inhibitors, interleukin [IL]-12/23 inhibitors, IL-17 inhibitors) in patients undergoing surgery. We examined 46 total studies; the majority were retrospective studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease. One study in patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis reviewed 77 procedures and did not find an elevated risk of postoperative complications with tumor necrosis factor-alfa and IL-12/23 inhibitors even with major surgeries. Based on level III evidence, infliximab, adalimumab, etanercept, methotrexate, and cyclosporine can be safely continued through low-risk operations in patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis. For moderate- and high-risk surgeries, a case-by-case approach should be taken based on the patient's individual risk factors and comorbidities. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing exposure risks for freshwater tilapia species posed by mercury and methylmercury.

PubMed

Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; You, Shu-Han; Yang, Ying-Fei; How, Chun Ming; Tseng, Yi-Ting; Chen, Wei-Yu; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-08-01

Waterborne and dietborne exposures of freshwater fish to mercury (Hg) in the forms of inorganic (Hg(II)) and organic (methylmercury or MeHg) affect their growth, development, and reproduction. However, an integrated mechanistic risk model framework to predict the impact of Hg(II)/MeHg on freshwater fish is lacking. Here, we integrated biokinetic, physiological and biogeographic data to calibrate and then establish key risk indices-hazardous quotient and exceedance risk-for freshwater tilapia species across geographic ranges of several major rivers in Taiwan. We found that Hg(II) burden was highest in kidney followed by gill, intestine, liver, blood, and muscle. Our results showed that Hg was less likely to pose mortality risk (mortality rate less than 5 %) for freshwater tilapia species. However, Hg is likely to pose the potential hazard to aquatic environments constrained by safety levels for aquatic organisms. Sensitivity analysis showed that amount of Hg accumulated in tilapia was most influenced by sediment uptake rate. Our approach opens up new possibilities for predicting future fish population health with the impacts of continued Hg exposure to provide information on which fish are deemed safe for human consumption.

Is there a specific fracture ‘cascade'?

PubMed Central

Melton, L Joseph; Amin, Shreyasee

2013-01-01

Different kinds of epidemiologic data provide varying views of the relationships among the main osteoporotic fractures. Descriptive incidence data indicate that distal forearm fractures typically occur earlier than vertebral fractures that, in turn, precede hip fractures late in life. In addition, relative risk estimates document the fact that one osteoporotic fracture increases the risk of subsequent ones. These two observations support the notion of a ‘fracture cascade' and justify the recent emphasis on secondary prevention, that is, more aggressive treatment of patients presenting with a fracture in order to prevent recurrences. However, the absolute risk of a subsequent fracture given an initial one is modest, and the degree to which the second fracture can be attributed to the first one is unclear. Moreover, the osteoporotic fractures encountered in the majority of patients are the first one experienced, and even these initial fractures lead to substantial morbidity and cost. These latter points reemphasize the importance of primary prevention, that is, the management of bone loss and other risk factors to prevent the first fracture. Continued efforts are needed to refine risk assessment algorithms so that candidates for such fracture prophylaxis can be identified more accurately and efficiently. PMID:24575296

Effect of Dietary Countermeasures and Impact of Gravity on Renal Calculi Size Distributions Predicted by PBE-System and PBE-CFD Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kassemi, M.; Thompson, D.; Goodenow, D.; Gokoglu, S.; Myers, J.

2016-01-01

Renal stone disease is not only a concern on earth but can conceivably pose a serious risk to the astronauts health and safety in Space. In this work, two different deterministic models based on a Population Balance Equation (PBE) analysis of renal stone formation are developed to assess the risks of critical renal stone incidence for astronauts during space travel. In the first model, the nephron is treated as a continuous mixed suspension mixed product removal crystallizer and the PBE for the nucleating, growing and agglomerating renal calculi is coupled to speciation calculations performed by JESS. Predictions of stone size distributions in the kidney using this model indicate that the astronaut in microgravity is at noticeably greater but still subcritical risk and recommend administration of citrate and augmented hydration as effective means of minimizing and containing this risk. In the second model, the PBE analysis is coupled to a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for flow of urine and transport of Calcium and Oxalate in the nephron to predict the impact of gravity on the stone size distributions. Results presented for realistic 3D tubule and collecting duct geometries, clearly indicate that agglomeration is the primary mode of size enhancement in both 1g and microgravity. 3D numerical simulations seem to further indicate that there will be an increased number of smaller stones developed in microgravity that will likely pass through the nephron in the absence of wall adhesion. However, upon reentry to a 1g (Earth) or 38g (Mars) partial gravitational fields, the renal calculi can lag behind the urinary flow in tubules that are adversely oriented with respect to the gravitational field and grow agglomerate to large sizes that are sedimented near the wall with increased propensity for wall adhesion, plaque formation, and risk to the astronauts.

Continuous Risk Management: An Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, Linda; Hammer, Theodore F.

1999-01-01

Software risk management is important because it helps avoid disasters, rework, and overkill, but more importantly because it stimulates win-win situations. The objectives of software risk management are to identify, address, and eliminate software risk items before they become threats to success or major sources of rework. In general, good project managers are also good managers of risk. It makes good business sense for all software development projects to incorporate risk management as part of project management. The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to implement risk management. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This is an introductory tutorial to continuous risk management based on this course. The rational for continuous risk management and how it is incorporated into project management are discussed. The risk management structure of six functions is discussed in sufficient depth for managers to understand what is involved in risk management and how it is implemented. These functions include: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

Atrial fibrillation incrementally increases dementia risk across all CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VASc strata in patients receiving long-term warfarin.

PubMed

Graves, Kevin G; May, Heidi T; Jacobs, Victoria; Bair, Tami L; Stevens, Scott M; Woller, Scott C; Crandall, Brian G; Cutler, Michael J; Day, John D; Mallender, Charles; Osborn, Jeffrey S; Peter Weiss, J; Jared Bunch, T

2017-06-01

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at higher risk for developing dementia. Warfarin is a common therapy for the prevention of thromboembolism in AF, valve replacement, and thrombosis patients. The extent to which AF itself increases dementia risk remains unknown. A total 6030 patients with no history of dementia and chronically anticoagulated with warfarin were studied. Warfarin management was provided through a Clinical Pharmacy Anticoagulation Service. Patients were stratified by warfarin indication of AF (n=3015) and non-AF (n=3015) and matched by propensity score (±0.01). Patients were stratified by the congestive heart failure, hypertension, age >75 years, diabetes, stroke (CHADS 2 ) score calculated at the time of warfarin initiation and followed for incident dementia. The average age of the AF cohort was 69.3±11.2 years, and 52.7% were male; average age of non-AF cohort was 69.3±10.9 years, and 51.5% were male. Increasing CHADS 2 score was associated with increased dementia incidence, P trend=.004. When stratified by warfarin indication, AF patients had an increased risk of dementia incidence. After multivariable adjustment, AF patients continued to display a significantly increased risk of dementia when compared with non-AF patients across all CHADS 2 scores strata. In patients receiving long-term warfarin therapy, dementia risk increased with increasing CHADS 2 scores. However, the presence of AF was associated with higher rates of dementia across all CHADS 2 score strata. These data suggest that AF contributes to the risk of dementia and that this risk is not solely attributable to anticoagulant use. Dementia may be an end manifestation of a systemic disease state, and AF likely contributes to its progression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Skin antiseptics and the risk of operating theatre fires.

PubMed

Spigelman, Allan D; Swan, Judith R

2005-07-01

Following press reports of patients catching fire or receiving chemical burns in the operating theatre, a review was conducted on the flammability of skin antiseptics. The purpose of the paper was to clarify confusion regarding povidine-iodine (Betadine), which had been reported as being flammable, and also to determine the use of alcohol-based solutions in the Hunter Area Health Service. A risk assessment was conducted and risk reduction strategies outlined. Risk assessment was made following a literature review and an audit of 10 operating theatres in the Hunter Area Health Service. Risk for operating room fires from alcohol-based skin antiseptics was confirmed. Antiseptics in aqueous solutions only smoulder. The Hunter Health survey indicated that although alcohol-based solutions were not used in operating theatres, they were used in anaesthetic bays for insertion of epidural and central line catheters. Strategies to reduce the risk of fire include discontinuation of use of alcohol-based skin antiseptics in operating theatres; using fire retardant surgical drapes; installing over-current protection devices on electrical equipment; minimizing flammable conditions by avoiding nitrous oxide and using the lowest required concentration of inspired oxygen; use of non-flammable cuffed endotracheal tubes; education and training of operating theatre personnel in fire hazards. Operating theatre fires continue to be a major risk for patient safety. In order to reduce this risk, the strategies outlined here should be followed.

Associations Between Ultrafine Particles and Co-Pollutant Concentrations in the Tampa Bay Area.

PubMed

Desai, Ushang; Watson, Alain

2016-05-01

Ultrafine particles (UFPs) are ubiquitous in urban air and have been recognized as a risk to human health. The aim of this study was to measure the relationships among ultrafine particles and other ambient air pollutants and meteorological factors in the Tampa Bay Area. This study measured continuous UFPs, black carbon, oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitric oxide (NO), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter having an aerodynamic diameter of 10 microns or less (PM10), relative humidity, wind speed, and ambient temperature during January to March 2014. Moreover, the study compared the relationship between UFPs and various co-pollutants daily, including during morning rush hour periods. This study found a moderate correlation among UFPs and black carbon, NO(x), NO2, and NO during hourly continuous measurements and rush hour periods, and a low level of correlation among UFPs and CO, O3, SO2, PM10, relative humidity, wind speed, and ambient temperature. This study indicates that co-pollutants should not be used as a surrogate to assess the human health risk from ultrafine particles exposure.

3 CFR - Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to the Risk of Nuclear Proliferation Created...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 3 The President 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to the Risk of Nuclear Proliferation Created by the Accumulation of Weapons-Useable Fissile Material in the Territory of the Russian Federation Presidential Documents Other Presidential Documents Notice of June 18, 2009 Continuation of the National...

3 CFR - Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to the Risk of Nuclear Proliferation Created...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 3 The President 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to the Risk of Nuclear Proliferation Created by the Accumulation of Weapons-Usable Fissile Material in the Territory of the Russian Federation Presidential Documents Other Presidential Documents Notice of June 17, 2011 Continuation of the National...

Healthcare system resiliency: The case for taking disaster plans further - Part 2.

PubMed

Hiller, Michael; Bone, Eric A; Timmins, Michael L

2015-01-01

For the most part, top management is aware of the costs of healthcare downtime. They recognise that minimising downtime while fulfilling risk management standards, namely, 'duty of care' and 'standard of care', are among the most difficult challenges they face, especially when coupled with the increasing pressure for continued service availability with the frequency of incidents. Through continuous operational availability and greater resiliency demands a new, combined approach has emerged, which necessitates that the disciplines of: (1) enterprise risk management; (2) emergency response planning; (3) business continuity management including IT disaster recovery; (4) crisis communications be addressed with strategies and techniques designed and integrated into a singular, seamless approach. It is no longer feasible to separate these disciplines. By integrating them as the gateway for service continuity, the organisation can enhance its ability to run as a business by helping to identify risks and prepare for change, prioritise work efforts, flag problems and pinpoint important areas that underpin the overarching business continuity processes. The driver of change in staying ahead of the risk curve, and the entry point of a true resiliency strategy, begins with identifying the synergies of the aforementioned disciplines and integrating each of them to jointly contribute to service continuance.

Risk assessment for job burnout with a mobile health web application using questionnaire data: a proof of concept study.

PubMed

von Känel, Roland; van Nuffel, Marc; Fuchs, Walther J

2016-01-01

Job burnout has become a rampant epidemic in working societies, causing high productivity loss and healthcare costs. An easy accessible tool to detect clinically relevant risk may bear the potential to timely avert the dire sequelae of burnout. As a start, we performed a proof of concept study to test the utilization of a mobile health web application for a free and anonymous burnout risk assessment with established questionnaires. We designed a client-side javascript web application for users who filled out demographic and psychometric data forms over the internet. Users were recruited through social media, back links from hospital websites, and search engine optimization. Similar to population-based studies, we used the Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey (MBI-GS) to calculate a burnout risk index (BRIX). As additional mental health burden indices, users filled out the Perceived Stress Scale, Insomina Severity Index, and Profile of Mood States. Within six months, the MBI-GS was completed by 11,311 users (median age 33 years, 85 % women) of whom 20.0 % had no clinically relevant burnout risk, 54.7 % had mild-to-moderate risk, and 25.3 % had high risk. In the 2947 users completing all questionnaires, female sex ( B  = -0.03), cohabiting ( B  = -0.03), negative affect ( B  = 0.46), positive affect ( B  = -0.20), perceived stress ( B  = 0.18), and insomnia symptoms ( B  = 0.04) explained 56.2 % of the variance in the continuously scaled BRIX. The reliability was good to excellent for all psychometric scales. The weighting of the BRIX with mental health burden indices primarily modified the risk in users with mild-to-moderate burnout risk. A low-threshold web application can reliably assess the risk of job burnout. As the bulk of users had clinically relevant burnout scores, a web application may be useful to target employees at risk. The clinical value of the BRIX and its modification with coexistent/absent mental health burden awaits evaluation with work and health outcomes.

Frequency analysis of urban runoff quality in an urbanizing catchment of Shenzhen, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Huapeng; Tan, Xiaolong; Fu, Guangtao; Zhang, Yingying; Huang, Yuefei

2013-07-01

This paper investigates the frequency distribution of urban runoff quality indicators using a long-term continuous simulation approach and evaluates the impacts of proposed runoff control schemes on runoff quality in an urbanizing catchment in Shenzhen, China. Four different indicators are considered to provide a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts: total runoff depth, event pollutant load, Event Mean Concentration, and peak concentration during a rainfall event. The results obtained indicate that urban runoff quantity and quality in the catchment have significant variations in rainfall events and a very high rate of non-compliance with surface water quality regulations. Three runoff control schemes with the capacity to intercept an initial runoff depth of 5 mm, 10 mm, and 15 mm are evaluated, respectively, and diminishing marginal benefits are found with increasing interception levels in terms of water quality improvement. The effects of seasonal variation in rainfall events are investigated to provide a better understanding of the performance of the runoff control schemes. The pre-flood season has higher risk of poor water quality than other seasons after runoff control. This study demonstrates that frequency analysis of urban runoff quantity and quality provides a probabilistic evaluation of pollution control measures, and thus helps frame a risk-based decision making for urban runoff quality management in an urbanizing catchment.

Utilizing Social Action Theory as a Framework to Determine Correlates of Illicit Drug Use Among Young Men Who Have Sex with Men

PubMed Central

Traube, Dorian E.; Holloway, Ian W.; Schrager, Sheree M.; Kipke, Michele D.

2011-01-01

Background Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) continue to be at elevated risk for substance use; however, models explaining this phenomenon have often focused on a limited array of explanatory constructs. Purpose This study utilizes Social Action Theory (SAT) as a framework to address gaps in research by documenting the social, behavioral, and demographic risk factors associated with illicit drug use among YMSM. Methods Structural equation modeling was used to apply SAT to a cross-sectional sample of 526 men from the Healthy Young Men Study, a longitudinal study of substance use and sexual risk behavior among YMSM in Los Angeles. Results The final model possessed very good fit statistics (CFI = 0.936, TLI = 0.925, RMSEA = 0.040) indicating that SAT is appropriate for use with YMSM. Conclusions Substance use interventions for YMSM could be enhanced by employing SAT as conceptualized in this study and using a multi-targeted strategy for impacting illicit drug use. PMID:21644802

Risk Communication of Groundwater Quality in Northern Malawi, Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, R.

2011-12-01

Malawi lies in Africa's Great Rift Valley. Its western border is defined by Lake Malawi, the third largest lake in Africa. Over 80% of Malawians live in rural areas and 90% of the labor force is associated with agriculture. More than half of the population lives below the poverty line. Area characteristics indicate a high likelihood of nitrate and total coliform in community drinking water. Infants exposed to high nitrate are at risk of developing methemoglobinemia. In addition, diarrheal diseases from unsafe drinking water are one of the top causes of mortality in children under five. Without sufficient and sustainable supplies of clean water, these challenges will continue to threaten Malawi's ability to overcome the devastating impact of diarrheal diseases on its population. Therefore, Malawi remains highly dependent on outside assistance and influence to reduce or eliminate the threat posed by unsafe drinking water. This research presents a literature review of nitrate and total coliform groundwater quality and a proposed risk communication plan for drinking water in northern Malawi.

Efficient and Flexible Climate Analysis with Python in a Cloud-Based Distributed Computing Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, C.

2017-12-01

As climate models become progressively more advanced, and spatial resolution further improved through various downscaling projects, climate projections at a local level are increasingly insightful and valuable. However, the raw size of climate datasets presents numerous hurdles for analysts wishing to develop customized climate risk metrics or perform site-specific statistical analysis. Four Twenty Seven, a climate risk consultancy, has implemented a Python-based distributed framework to analyze large climate datasets in the cloud. With the freedom afforded by efficiently processing these datasets, we are able to customize and continually develop new climate risk metrics using the most up-to-date data. Here we outline our process for using Python packages such as XArray and Dask to evaluate netCDF files in a distributed framework, StarCluster to operate in a cluster-computing environment, cloud computing services to access publicly hosted datasets, and how this setup is particularly valuable for generating climate change indicators and performing localized statistical analysis.

Influence of parental depressive symptoms on adopted toddler behaviors: an emerging developmental cascade of genetic and environmental effects.

PubMed

Pemberton, Caroline K; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Leve, Leslie D; Natsuaki, Misaki N; Shaw, Daniel S; Reiss, David; Ge, Xiaojia

2010-11-01

This study examined the developmental cascade of both genetic and environmental influences on toddlers' behavior problems through the longitudinal and multigenerational assessment of psychosocial risk. We used data from the Early Growth and Development Study, a prospective adoption study, to test the intergenerational transmission of risk through the assessment of adoptive mother, adoptive father, and biological parent depressive symptoms on toddler behavior problems. Given that depression is often chronic, we control for across-time continuity and find that in addition to associations between adoptive mother depressive symptoms and toddler externalizing problems, adoptive father depressive symptoms when the child is 9 months of age were associated with toddler problems and associated with maternal depressive symptoms. Findings also indicated that a genetic effect may indirectly influence toddler problems through prenatal pregnancy risk. These findings help to describe how multiple generations are linked through genetic (biological parent), timing (developmental age of the child), and contextual (marital partner) pathways.

Influence of Parental Depressive Symptoms on Adopted Toddler Behaviors: An Emerging Developmental Cascade of Genetic and Environmental Effects

PubMed Central

Pemberton, Caroline K.; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.; Leve, Leslie D.; Natsuaki, Misaki N.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Reiss, David; Ge, Xiaojia

2011-01-01

This study examined the developmental cascade of both genetic and environmental influences on toddlers’ behavior problems through the longitudinal and multi-generational assessment of psychosocial risk. We used data from the Early Growth and Development Study, a prospective adoption study, to test the intergenerational transmission of risk through the assessment of adoptive mother, adoptive father, and biological parent depressive symptoms on toddler behavior problems. Given that depression is often chronic, we control for across-time continuity and find that in addition to associations between adoptive mother depressive symptoms and toddler externalizing problems, adoptive father depressive symptoms when the child is 9-months of age were associated with toddler problems and associated with maternal depressive symptoms. Findings also indicated that a genetic effect may indirectly influence toddler problems through prenatal pregnancy risk. These findings help to describe how multiple generations are linked through genetic (biological parent), timing (developmental age of the child), and contextual (marital partner) pathways. PMID:20883583

Why herd size matters - mitigating the effects of livestock crashes.

PubMed

Næss, Marius Warg; Bårdsen, Bård-Jørgen

2013-01-01

Analysing the effect of pastoral risk management strategies provides insights into a system of subsistence that have persevered in marginal areas for hundreds to thousands of years and may shed light into the future of around 200 million households in the face of climate change. This study investigated the efficiency of herd accumulation as a buffer strategy by analysing changes in livestock holdings during an environmental crisis in the Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway. We found a positive relationship between: (1) pre- and post-collapse herd size; and (2) pre-collapse herd size and the number of animals lost during the collapse, indicating that herd accumulation is an effective but costly strategy. Policies that fail to incorporate the risk-beneficial aspect of herd accumulation will have a limited effect and may indeed fail entirely. In the context of climate change, official policies that incorporate pastoral risk management strategies may be the only solution for ensuring their continued existence.

Deterrence and Risk Preferences in Sequential Attacker-Defender Games with Continuous Efforts.

PubMed

Payyappalli, Vineet M; Zhuang, Jun; Jose, Victor Richmond R

2017-11-01

Most attacker-defender games consider players as risk neutral, whereas in reality attackers and defenders may be risk seeking or risk averse. This article studies the impact of players' risk preferences on their equilibrium behavior and its effect on the notion of deterrence. In particular, we study the effects of risk preferences in a single-period, sequential game where a defender has a continuous range of investment levels that could be strategically chosen to potentially deter an attack. This article presents analytic results related to the effect of attacker and defender risk preferences on the optimal defense effort level and their impact on the deterrence level. Numerical illustrations and some discussion of the effect of risk preferences on deterrence and the utility of using such a model are provided, as well as sensitivity analysis of continuous attack investment levels and uncertainty in the defender's beliefs about the attacker's risk preference. A key contribution of this article is the identification of specific scenarios in which the defender using a model that takes into account risk preferences would be better off than a defender using a traditional risk-neutral model. This study provides insights that could be used by policy analysts and decisionmakers involved in investment decisions in security and safety. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Differences in breast-feeding initiation and continuation by maternal diabetes status.

PubMed

Oza-Frank, Reena; Chertok, Ilana; Bartley, Adam

2015-03-01

To examine (i) the prevalence of and associations between breast-feeding initiation and continuation by maternal diabetes status and (ii) the reasons for not initiating and/or continuing breast-feeding by maternal diabetes status. Secondary data analyses of a population-based cross-sectional study were conducting using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS), 2009-2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the associations between breast-feeding initiation and continuation by diabetes status. Thirty states and New York City, USA. Mothers of recently live-born infants, selected by birth certificate sampling. Among 72755 women, 8.8 % had gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and 1.7 % had pregestational diabetes mellitus (PDM). Breast-feeding initiation was similar among GDM and no diabetes mellitus (NDM) women (80.8 % v. 82.2 %, respectively, P=0.2), but continuation was lower among GDM (65.7 % v. 68.8 %, respectively, P=0.01). PDM women had lower initiation and continuation compared with NDM (78.2 %, P=0.03 and 60.4 %, P<0.01, respectively). In adjusted analyses, current smoking status was a significant effect modifier for initiation, but not for continuation. Differences in breast-feeding initiation and continuation prevalence by maternal diabetes status may reflect differences in prenatal education, indicating the need for increased efforts among PDM women. Additionally, non-smoking women with PDM or GDM would benefit from additional breast-feeding education.

Food and Agriculture Policy in Europe.

PubMed

Birt, Christopher A

2016-01-01

Diet includes many risk factors for the most common non-communicable diseases (NCDs), but diets consumed in Europe and in other parts of the developed world are not being modified sufficiently to take account of health priorities concerning, in particular, the prevention of NCDs, while much excess mortality and morbidity could be prevented by government actions to regulate appropriately both the agricultural and food industries, and to apply appropriate taxes and subsidies to promote healthier nutrition. In Europe, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) continues to promote production of saturated fat rich foods and sugar, with scarce attempts to promote increased production of fruit and vegetables. Meanwhile, the food industry continues to market secondary food products rich in sugar, salt and saturated fats. Powerful lobbies seek to block reform; however, necessary reforms are indicated in the interests of improved nutritional health.

Food and Agriculture Policy in Europe

PubMed Central

Birt, Christopher A

2016-01-01

Diet includes many risk factors for the most common non-communicable diseases (NCDs), but diets consumed in Europe and in other parts of the developed world are not being modified sufficiently to take account of health priorities concerning, in particular, the prevention of NCDs, while much excess mortality and morbidity could be prevented by government actions to regulate appropriately both the agricultural and food industries, and to apply appropriate taxes and subsidies to promote healthier nutrition. In Europe, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) continues to promote production of saturated fat rich foods and sugar, with scarce attempts to promote increased production of fruit and vegetables. Meanwhile, the food industry continues to market secondary food products rich in sugar, salt and saturated fats. Powerful lobbies seek to block reform; however, necessary reforms are indicated in the interests of improved nutritional health. PMID:29546152

Multimethod prediction of physical parent-child aggression risk in expectant mothers and fathers with Social Information Processing theory.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Christina M; Smith, Tamika L; Silvia, Paul J

2016-01-01

The Social Information Processing (SIP) model postulates that parents undergo a series of stages in implementing physical discipline that can escalate into physical child abuse. The current study utilized a multimethod approach to investigate whether SIP factors can predict risk of parent-child aggression (PCA) in a diverse sample of expectant mothers and fathers. SIP factors of PCA attitudes, negative child attributions, reactivity, and empathy were considered as potential predictors of PCA risk; additionally, analyses considered whether personal history of PCA predicted participants' own PCA risk through its influence on their attitudes and attributions. Findings indicate that, for both mothers and fathers, history influenced attitudes but not attributions in predicting PCA risk, and attitudes and attributions predicted PCA risk; empathy and reactivity predicted negative child attributions for expectant mothers, but only reactivity significantly predicted attributions for expectant fathers. Path models for expectant mothers and fathers were remarkably similar. Overall, the findings provide support for major aspects of the SIP model. Continued work is needed in studying the progression of these factors across time for both mothers and fathers as well as the inclusion of other relevant ecological factors to the SIP model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-intensity interval training or continuous training, combined or not with fasting, in obese or overweight women with cardiometabolic risk factors: study protocol for a randomised clinical trial

PubMed Central

Van Bavel, Diogo; de Moraes, Roger; Tibiriça, Eduardo V

2018-01-01

Introduction Physical inactivity and increased caloric intake play important roles in the pathophysiology of obesity. Increasing physical activity and modifying eating behaviours are first-line interventions, frequently hampered by lack of time to exercise and difficulties in coping with different diets. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) may be a time-efficient method compared with moderate-intensity continuous training (CT). Conversely, diets with a fasting component may be more effective than other complex and restrictive diets, as it essentially limits caloric intake to a specified period without major diet composition changes. Therefore, the combination of HIIT and fasting may provide incremental benefits in terms of effectiveness and time efficiency in obese and sedentary populations. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of HIIT versus CT, combined or not with fasting, on microcirculatory function, cardiometabolic parameters, anthropometric indices, cardiorespiratory fitness and quality of life in a population of sedentary overweight or obese women with cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods and analysis Sedentary women aged 30–50 years, with a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 and cardiometabolic risk factors, will be randomised to HIIT performed in the fasting state, HIIT performed in the fed state, CT in the fasting state or CT in the fed state. Cardiometabolic parameters, anthropometric indices, cardiorespiratory fitness, quality of life and microvascular function (cutaneous capillary density and microvascular reactivity evaluated by laser speckle contrast imaging) will be evaluated before initiation of the interventions and 16 weeks thereafter. Ethics and dissemination The trial complies with the Declaration of Helsinki and has been approved by the local ethics committee (Instituto Nacional de Cardiologia, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). All patients provide written informed consent before enrolment and randomisation. The study’s results will be disseminated to the healthcare community by publications and presentations at scientific meetings. Trial registration number NCT03236285. PMID:29705753

Combining the ASA Physical Classification System and Continuous Intraoperative Surgical Apgar Score Measurement in Predicting Postoperative Risk.

PubMed

Jering, Monika Zdenka; Marolen, Khensani N; Shotwell, Matthew S; Denton, Jason N; Sandberg, Warren S; Ehrenfeld, Jesse Menachem

2015-11-01

The surgical Apgar score predicts major 30-day postoperative complications using data assessed at the end of surgery. We hypothesized that evaluating the surgical Apgar score continuously during surgery may identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications. We retrospectively identified general, vascular, and general oncology patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Logistic regression methods were used to construct a series of predictive models in order to continuously estimate the risk of major postoperative complications, and to alert care providers during surgery should the risk exceed a given threshold. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of a model utilizing a continuously measured surgical Apgar score relative to models that use only preoperative clinical factors or continuously monitored individual constituents of the surgical Apgar score (i.e. heart rate, blood pressure, and blood loss). AUROC estimates were validated internally using a bootstrap method. 4,728 patients were included. Combining the ASA PS classification with continuously measured surgical Apgar score demonstrated improved discriminative ability (AUROC 0.80) in the pooled cohort compared to ASA (0.73) and the surgical Apgar score alone (0.74). To optimize the tradeoff between inadequate and excessive alerting with future real-time notifications, we recommend a threshold probability of 0.24. Continuous assessment of the surgical Apgar score is predictive for major postoperative complications. In the future, real-time notifications might allow for detection and mitigation of changes in a patient's accumulating risk of complications during a surgical procedure.

Objective Assessment of Fall Risk in Parkinson's Disease Using a Body-Fixed Sensor Worn for 3 Days

PubMed Central

Weiss, Aner; Herman, Talia; Giladi, Nir; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M.

2014-01-01

Background Patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) suffer from a high fall risk. Previous approaches for evaluating fall risk are based on self-report or testing at a given time point and may, therefore, be insufficient to optimally capture fall risk. We tested, for the first time, whether metrics derived from 3 day continuous recordings are associated with fall risk in PD. Methods and Materials 107 patients (Hoehn & Yahr Stage: 2.6±0.7) wore a small, body-fixed sensor (3D accelerometer) on lower back for 3 days. Walking quantity (e.g., steps per 3-days) and quality (e.g., frequency-derived measures of gait variability) were determined. Subjects were classified as fallers or non-fallers based on fall history. Subjects were also followed for one year to evaluate predictors of the transition from non-faller to faller. Results The 3 day acceleration derived measures were significantly different in fallers and non-fallers and were significantly correlated with previously validated measures of fall risk. Walking quantity was similar in the two groups. In contrast, the fallers walked with higher step-to-step variability, e.g., anterior-posterior width of the dominant frequency was larger (p = 0.012) in the fallers (0.78±0.17 Hz) compared to the non-fallers (0.71±0.07 Hz). Among subjects who reported no falls in the year prior to testing, sensor-derived measures predicted the time to first fall (p = 0.0034), whereas many traditional measures did not. Cox regression analysis showed that anterior-posterior width was significantly (p = 0.0039) associated with time to fall during the follow-up period, even after adjusting for traditional measures. Conclusions/Significance These findings indicate that a body-fixed sensor worn continuously can evaluate fall risk in PD. This sensor-based approach was able to identify transition from non-faller to faller, whereas many traditional metrics were not successful. This approach may facilitate earlier detection of fall risk and may in the future, help reduce high costs associated with falls. PMID:24801889

Airline business continuity and IT disaster recovery sites.

PubMed

Haji, Jassim

2016-01-01

Business continuity is defined as the capability of the organisation to continue delivery of products or services at acceptable predefined levels following a disruptive incident. Business continuity is fast evolving to become a critical and strategic decision for any organisation. Transportation in general, and airlines in particular, is a unique sector with a specialised set of requirements, challenges and opportunities. Business continuity in the airline sector is a concept that is generally overlooked by the airline managements. This paper reviews different risks related to airline processes and will also propose solutions to these risks based on experiences and good industry practices.

Beta-blockade after myocardial infarction: practical implications of major clinical trials.

PubMed

Rehnqvist, N; Olsson, G

1987-01-01

A survey of the literature concerning 20 years' experience of beta-blockade after myocardial infarction indicates that several positive effects are achieved and that these are neither marginal nor transient. Mortality is reduced during the first year from about 10 to 7%. This has been shown for the individual beta-blockers metoprolol, propranolol, and timolol, and also when the data on all beta-blocker trials have been pooled. The effect is further enhanced if therapy continues. Patients at high risk of mortality can be separated fairly accurately from those at low risk. Thus, prophylactic treatment with the sole purpose of reducing mortality can be individualized. Effects on reinfarction are also already present after 1 year and are enhanced during further follow-up. It has not yet been possible, however, to identify those patients in whom this end-point will not be influenced. Furthermore, during extended follow-up, the proportion of asymptomatic patients who are free of side effects increases during treatment with beta-blockade, whereas it decreases during placebo therapy, due mostly to increased numbers of patients suffering from complications such as reinfarction, angina pectoris, cerebrovascular incidents, arrhythmias, or disturbances in the peripheral circulation. Twenty percent of patients experienced improved fitness when beta-blockade treatment was withdrawn, which balances the beneficial effects. No other drugs have been shown to have comparable beneficial effects. We conclude that the practical implications of the clinical trials indicate that beta-blockade should be continued for at least 3 years after myocardial infarction in patients without severe side effects.

Release of cadmium in contaminated paddy soil amended with NPK fertilizer and lime under water management.

PubMed

Han, Xiao-Qing; Xiao, Xi-Yuan; Guo, Zhao-Hui; Xie, Ye-Hua; Zhu, Hui-Wen; Peng, Chi; Liang, Yu-Qin

2018-05-03

Agricultural soils contaminated with cadmium (Cd) pose a risk to receiving surface water via drainage or runoff. A 90-day laboratory incubation experiment was conducted to investigate the release characteristics and transformation of Cd from contaminated paddy soil amended with agrochemical (NPK fertilizer) and lime (L) under water management regimes of continuous flooding (F) and drying-wetting cycles (DW). The result showed that the dissolved Cd concentrations in overlying water of the fertilizer treatment under flooding (NPK+F) and drying-wetting (NPK+DW) reached up to 81.0 μg/L and 276 μg/L, and were much higher than that from the corresponding controls without NPK fertilizer addition at the end of experiment. The Cd concentration showed significantly negative correlation with overlying water pH, but positive correlation with soil redox potential and concentrations of dissolved total nitrogen, sulfate and manganese in overlying water (P < 0.05), indicating that drying-wetting cycles and N fertilizer addition may enhance soil Cd release. The Cd concentrations in overlying water from all treatments except NPK+L+F treatment exceeded the Cd threshold limit of Chinese Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (10 μg/L Grade V) and poses potential risk to surface water quality. Meanwhile, the proportion of Cd in the acid-soluble fraction from all incubated soil except NPK+L+F treatment increased compared to before incubation. The results indicated that continuous flooding was a reasonable water management candidate coupled with lime addition for immobilizing soil Cd. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Kathleen M; Lamoureux, Christine; Molodecky, Natalie A; Lyons, Hil; Grassly, Nicholas C; Tallis, Graham

2017-05-26

The international spread of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks continues to threaten eradication of poliomyelitis and in 2014 a public health emergency of international concern was declared. Here we describe a risk scoring system that has been used to assess country-level risks of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks, to inform prioritisation of mass vaccination planning, and describe the change in risk from 2014 to 2016. The methods were also used to assess the risk of emergence of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Potential explanatory variables were tested against the reported outbreaks of wild poliomyelitis since 2003 using multivariable regression analysis. The regression analysis was translated to a risk score and used to classify countries as Low, Medium, Medium High and High risk, based on the predictive ability of the score. Indicators of population immunity, population displacement and diarrhoeal disease were associated with an increased risk of both wild and vaccine-derived outbreaks. High migration from countries with wild cases was associated with wild outbreaks. High birth numbers were associated with an increased risk of vaccine-derived outbreaks. Use of the scoring system is a transparent and rapid approach to assess country risk of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Since 2008 there has been a steep reduction in the number of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks and the reduction in countries classified as High and Medium High risk has reflected this. The risk of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks has varied geographically. These findings highlight that many countries remain susceptible to poliomyelitis outbreaks and maintenance or improvement in routine immunisation is vital.

Intercomparison of active, passive and continuous instruments for radon and radon progeny measurements in the EML chamber and test facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

George, A.C.; Knutson, E.O.; Tu, K.W.

1995-12-01

The results from the May 1995 Intercomparison of Active, Passive and Continuous Instruments for Radon and Radon Progeny Measurement conducted in the EML radon exposure and test facility are presented. Represented were 13 participants that measure radon with open faced and diffusion barrier activated carbon collectors, 10 with nuclear alpha track detectors, 9 with short-term and long-term electret/ionization chambers, and 13 with active and passive commercial electronic continuous monitors. For radon progeny, there were four participants that came in person to take part in the grab sampling methodology for measuring individual radon progeny and the potential alpha energy concentration (PAEC).more » There were 11 participants with continuous and integrating commercial electronic instruments that are used for measuring the PAEC. The results indicate that all the tested instruments that measure radon fulfill their intended purpose. All instruments and methods used for grab sampling for radon progeny did very well. However, most of the continuous and integrating electronic instruments used for measuring the PAEC or working level appear to underestimate the potential risk from radon progeny when the concentration of particles onto which the radon progeny are attached is <5,000 cm{sup -3}.« less

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: Assessment of risk to the Lockheed Model L-1011 commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.

Service provision and quality outcomes in home health for rural Medicare beneficiaries at high risk for unplanned care.

PubMed

Mroz, Tracy M; Andrilla, C Holly A; Garberson, Lisa A; Skillman, Susan M; Patterson, Davis G; Larson, Eric H

2018-06-11

Multiple barriers exist to providing home health care in rural areas. This study examined relationships between service provision and quality outcomes among rural, fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries who received home health care between 2011 and 2013 for conditions associated with high-risk for unplanned care. More skilled nursing visits, visits by more types of providers, more timely care, and shorter lengths of stay were associated with significantly higher odds of hospital readmission and emergency department use and significantly lower odds of community discharge. Results may indicate unmeasured clinical severity and care needs among this population. Additional research regarding the accuracy of current severity measures and adequacy of case-mix adjustment for quality metrics is warranted, especially given the continued focus on value-based payment policies.

The Role of the Omental Microenvironment in Ovarian Cancer Metastatic Colonization

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

Council for Continuing Medical Education (ACCME) through the joint sponsorship of the American Society for Clinical Pathology (ASCP) and the American...Society for Investigative Pathology (ASIP). ASCP is accredited by the ACCME to provide continuing medical education for physicians. The ASCP designates this...cancer risk in high-risk women, 2) offer pharmacological-, nutritional -, and immunological-based risk reduction strategies coupled with biological

Characteristics of undernourished older medical patients and the identification of predictors for undernutrition status.

PubMed

Feldblum, Ilana; German, Larisa; Castel, Hana; Harman-Boehm, Ilana; Bilenko, Natalya; Eisinger, Miruna; Fraser, Drora; Shahar, Danit R

2007-11-02

Undernutrition among older people is a continuing source of concern, particularly among acutely hospitalized patients. The purpose of the current study is to compare malnourished elderly patients with those at nutritional risk and identify factors contributing to the variability between the groups. The study was carried out at the Soroka University Medical Center in the south of Israel. From September 2003 through December 2004, all patients 65 years-of-age or older admitted to any of the internal medicine departments, were screened within 72 hours of admission to determine nutritional status using the short version of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF). Patients at nutritional risk were entered the study and were divided into malnourished or 'at risk' based on the full version of the MNA. Data regarding medical, nutritional, functional, and emotional status were obtained by trained interviewers. Two hundred fifty-nine elderly patients, 43.6% men, participated in the study; 18.5% were identified as malnourished and 81.5% were at risk for malnutrition according to the MNA. The malnourished group was less educated, had a higher depression score and lower cognitive and physical functioning. Higher prevalence of chewing problems, nausea, and vomiting was detected among malnourished patients. There was no difference between the groups in health status indicators except for subjective health evaluation which was poorer among the malnourished group. Lower dietary score indicating lower intake of vegetables fruits and fluid, poor appetite and difficulties in eating distinguished between malnourished and at-risk populations with the highest sensitivity and specificity as compare with the anthropometric, global, and self-assessment of nutritional status parts of the MNA. In a multivariate analysis, lower cognitive function, education <12 years and chewing problems were all risk factors for malnutrition. Our study indicates that low food consumption as well as poor appetite and chewing problems are associated with the development of malnutrition. Given the critical importance of nutritional status in the hospitalized elderly, further intervention trials are required to determine the best intervention strategies to overcome these problems.

Continuous spinal drain following endoscopic third ventriculostomy: a proposal to change the definition of failure.

PubMed

Ozisik, Pinar; Roth, Jonathan; Beni-Adani, Liana; Constantini, Shlomi

2011-11-01

This study evaluates the safety, efficacy, and indications for continuous lumbar drainage (CLD) in patients following endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV). We retrospectively reviewed the clinical data of 22 consecutive patients treated between 1996 and 2010 with CLD after ETV. The decision to insert a CLD was made in selected patients only. CLD was inserted in cases of high measured intracranial pressure (12 patients), clinical symptoms indicative of continuing hydrocephalus (2 patients), and "prophylactically" in 8 patients, based either on the clinical condition of patients before ETV or on technical difficulties during the ETV procedure, which seemed to increase the risk of ETV failure. CLD insertion took place either in the operating room immediately following the ETV procedure or under very specific conditions and with close patient monitoring in an ICU setting. Only four patients eventually required shunting, all within 1 month after ETV. Therefore, the overall ETV success rate was 81.8% (18/22 patients). Of the 14 patients suffering from measured or clinically observed continuing hydrocephalus, 12 (85%) ultimately recovered without the need for a permanent shunt. Without the CLD, some of these patients would probably have been declared "failures" and referred for a standard shunt. CLD provided a time window following ETV for the absorption system to recover and return to full functionality. Selective usage of CLD is a reasonable and safe method to gain time and possibly facilitates the recovery of absorption capacity following ETV. CLD should be considered before conceding a post-ETV patient as a failure.

Risk behaviors in a rural community with a known point-source exposure to chronic wasting disease

PubMed Central

Garruto, Ralph M; Reiber, Chris; Alfonso, Marta P; Gastrich, Heidi; Needham, Kelsey; Sunderman, Sarah; Walker, Sarah; Weeks, Jennifer; DeRosa, Nicholas; Faisst, Eric; Dunn, John; Fanelli, Kenneth; Shilkret, Kenneth

2008-01-01

Background The emergence and continuing spread of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in cervids has now reached 14 U.S. states, two Canadian provinces, and South Korea, producing a potential for transmission of CWD prions to humans and other animals globally. In 2005, CWD spread for the first time from the Midwest to more densely populated regions of the East Coast. As a result, a large cohort of individuals attending a wild game feast in upstate New York were exposed to a deer that was subsequently confirmed positive for CWD. Methods Eighty-one participants who ingested or otherwise were exposed to a deer with chronic wasting disease at a local New York State sportsman's feast were recruited for this study. Participants were administered an exposure questionnaire and agreed to follow-up health evaluations longitudinally over the next six years. Results Our results indicate two types of risks for those who attended the feast, a Feast Risk and a General Risk. The larger the number of risk factors, the greater the risk to human health if CWD is transmissible to humans. Long-term surveillance of feast participants exposed to CWD is ongoing. Conclusion The risk data from this study provide a relative scale for cumulative exposure to CWD-infected tissues and surfaces, and those in the upper tiers of cumulative risk may be most at risk if CWD is transmissible to humans. PMID:18577220

Genomic Changes in Normal Breast Tissue in Women at Normal Risk or at High Risk for Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Danforth, David N.

2016-01-01

Sporadic breast cancer develops through the accumulation of molecular abnormalities in normal breast tissue, resulting from exposure to estrogens and other carcinogens beginning at adolescence and continuing throughout life. These molecular changes may take a variety of forms, including numerical and structural chromosomal abnormalities, epigenetic changes, and gene expression alterations. To characterize these abnormalities, a review of the literature has been conducted to define the molecular changes in each of the above major genomic categories in normal breast tissue considered to be either at normal risk or at high risk for sporadic breast cancer. This review indicates that normal risk breast tissues (such as reduction mammoplasty) contain evidence of early breast carcinogenesis including loss of heterozygosity, DNA methylation of tumor suppressor and other genes, and telomere shortening. In normal tissues at high risk for breast cancer (such as normal breast tissue adjacent to breast cancer or the contralateral breast), these changes persist, and are increased and accompanied by aneuploidy, increased genomic instability, a wide range of gene expression differences, development of large cancerized fields, and increased proliferation. These changes are consistent with early and long-standing exposure to carcinogens, especially estrogens. A model for the breast carcinogenic pathway in normal risk and high-risk breast tissues is proposed. These findings should clarify our understanding of breast carcinogenesis in normal breast tissue and promote development of improved methods for risk assessment and breast cancer prevention in women. PMID:27559297

Evaluation of Two New Indices of Blood Pressure Variability Using Postural Change in Older Fallers.

PubMed

Goh, Choon-Hian; Ng, Siew-Cheok; Kamaruzzaman, Shahrul B; Chin, Ai-Vyrn; Poi, Philip J H; Chee, Kok Han; Imran, Z Abidin; Tan, Maw Pin

2016-05-01

To evaluate the utility of blood pressure variability (BPV) calculated using previously published and newly introduced indices using the variables falls and age as comparators.While postural hypotension has long been considered a risk factor for falls, there is currently no documented evidence on the relationship between BPV and falls.A case-controlled study involving 25 fallers and 25 nonfallers was conducted. Systolic (SBPV) and diastolic blood pressure variability (DBPV) were assessed using 5 indices: standard deviation (SD), standard deviation of most stable continuous 120 beats (staSD), average real variability (ARV), root mean square of real variability (RMSRV), and standard deviation of real variability (SDRV). Continuous beat-to-beat blood pressure was recorded during 10 minutes' supine rest and 3 minutes' standing.Standing SBPV was significantly higher than supine SBPV using 4 indices in both groups. The standing-to-supine-BPV ratio (SSR) was then computed for each subject (staSD, ARV, RMSRV, and SDRV). Standing-to-supine ratio for SBPV was significantly higher among fallers compared to nonfallers using RMSRV and SDRV (P = 0.034 and P = 0.025). Using linear discriminant analysis (LDA), 3 indices (ARV, RMSRV, and SDRV) of SSR SBPV provided accuracies of 61.6%, 61.2%, and 60.0% for the prediction of falls which is comparable with timed-up and go (TUG), 64.4%.This study suggests that SSR SBPV using RMSRV and SDRV is a potential predictor for falls among older patients, and deserves further evaluation in larger prospective studies.

[Organprotection in cardiac risk patients--rational of perioperative beta-adrenoceptor-antagonists and statins].

PubMed

Hanss, Robert; Bein, Berthold

2010-04-01

The number of patients with limited organ function is steadily increasing due to the aging of the population. Consequently, a growing number of patients needing surgery is accompanied by serious comorbidities. These patients are at high risk of perioperative organ dysfunction. In this context cardiac events (e.g. cardiac arrhythmias, angina or myocardial infarction) play a major role with significant impact on postoperative care, long term outcome and economic sequelae. Thus, anaesthesiologists must prevent such events in the perioperative period. Besides general measures such as adequate analgesia, protection from stressful events and sufficient volume replacement, medical intervention with beta-blockers or HMG-CoA-reductase-inhibitors (statins) are necessary to reduce the incidence of perioperative cardiac events. Both beta-blockers and HMG-CoA-reductase-inhibitors are known to exhibit pleiotropic effects (defined as additional cardioprotective effects) besides the primary blockade of the beta-adrenergic receptor or the inhibition of the synthesis of serum cholesterol, respectively. Both groups of drugs improve cardiac function, decrease inflammatory response, decrease activation of blood coagulation and stabilize endothelial plaques. Based on the current literature the following recommendations are published concerning the perioperative administration of beta-blockers: (i) Patients who are on beta-blockers on a regular basis following guidelines concerning chronic treatment of cardiovascular diseases should continue this medication throughout the perioperative period; (ii) a sufficient indicator of an adequate therapy is the baseline heart rate. It should not exceed 60-70bpm at rest; (iii) the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) is a widely accepted score to estimate the patient's perioperative cardiac risk; (iv) patients with a RCRI > or =3 should not be scheduled for routine surgery without sufficient beta-adrenergic-receptor blockade; (v) in patients at high cardiac risk based on the RCRI who are scheduled for emergency surgery beta-blocker-therapy should not be initiated de novo perioperatively. However, for perioperative treatment of tachycardia or hypertension beta-blockers are the drug of first choice. Concerning perioperative statin-therapy the following recommendations are suggested: (i) chronic statin-therapy should be continued throughout surgery and the perioperative period; (ii) in patients without chronic statin-therapy scheduled for vascular surgery this treatment should be started perioperativly; (iii) no data is available concerning other patient populations; (iv) if statin-therapy is indicated it should be started independently from baseline serum LDL-C-concentration; (v) side effects of statin-therapy are rare and usually not live threatening, thus treatment is considered to be without serious risks to the patient. Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart. New York.

Developmental timing and continuity of exposure to interparental violence and externalizing behavior as prospective predictors of dating violence.

PubMed

Narayan, Angela J; Englund, Michelle M; Egeland, Byron

2013-11-01

This study investigated the prospective pathways of children's exposure to interparental violence (EIPV) in early and middle childhood and externalizing behavior in middle childhood and adolescence as developmental predictors of dating violence perpetration and victimization at ages 23 and 26 years. Participants (N = 168) were drawn from a longitudinal study of low-income families. Path analyses examined whether timing or continuity of EIPV predicted dating violence and whether timing or continuity of externalizing behavior mediated these pathways. Results indicated that EIPV in early childhood directly predicted perpetration and victimization at age 23. There were significant indirect effects from EIPV to dating violence through externalizing behavior in adolescence and life stress at age 23. Independent of EIPV, externalizing behavior in middle childhood also predicted dating violence through externalizing behavior in adolescence and life stress at age 23, but this pathway stemmed from maltreatment. These results highlight that the timing of EIPV and both the timing and the continuity of externalizing behavior are critical risks for the intergenerational transmission of dating violence. The findings support a developmental perspective that negative early experiences and children's externalizing behavior are powerful influences for dating violence in early adulthood.

Developmental Timing and Continuity of Exposure to Interparental Violence and Externalizing Behavior as Prospective Predictors of Dating Violence

PubMed Central

Narayan, Angela J.; Englund, Michelle M.; Egeland, Byron

2014-01-01

This study investigated the prospective pathways of children's exposure to interparental violence (EIPV) in early and middle childhood and externalizing behavior in middle childhood and adolescence as developmental predictors of dating violence perpetration and victimization at ages 23 and 26 years. Participants (N = 168) were drawn from a longitudinal study of low-income families. Path analyses examined whether timing or continuity of EIPV predicted dating violence and whether timing or continuity of externalizing behavior mediated these pathways. Results indicated that EIPV in early childhood directly predicted perpetration and victimization at age 23. There were significant indirect effects from EIPV to dating violence through externalizing behavior in adolescence and life stress at age 23. Independent of EIPV, externalizing behavior in middle childhood also predicted dating violence through externalizing behavior in adolescence and life stress at age 23, but this pathway stemmed from maltreatment. These results highlight that the timing of EIPV and both the timing and continuity of externalizing behavior are critical risks for the intergenerational transmission of dating violence. Findings support a developmental perspective that negative early experiences and children's externalizing behavior are powerful influences for dating violence in early adulthood. PMID:24229543

Postoperative vocal fold palsy in patients undergoing thyroid surgery with continuous or intermittent nerve monitoring.

PubMed

Schneider, R; Sekulla, C; Machens, A; Lorenz, K; Nguyen Thanh, P; Dralle, H

2015-10-01

Continuous monitoring of electromyographic (EMG) amplitudes of the vocal muscles detects impending injury of the recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) during thyroid operations earlier than intermittent EMG monitoring. This may alert the surgeon to stop a manoeuvre causing stretching or pressure on the RLN, with better recovery of nerve function. Patients with intact preoperative RLN function who underwent thyroid surgery for benign disease between January 2011 and September 2014 under continuous intraoperative nerve monitoring (CIONM) or intermittent intraoperative nerve monitoring (IIONM) were included in this observational study conducted at a tertiary surgical centre. For CIONM, combined EMG events indicative of imminent nerve injury were defined as an EMG amplitude decrease of 50 per cent or more and a latency increase of 10 per cent relative to baseline values. The rates of early and permanent palsy for the two groups of patients were compared. There were 1526 patients, 788 of whom (1314 nerves at risk) underwent thyroid surgery using CIONM and 738 (965 nerves at risk) had IIONM. With the use of CIONM, 63 (82 per cent) of 77 combined events were reversible during the operation. No permanent vocal fold palsy occurred with CIONM, whereas four unilateral permanent vocal fold palsies (0·4 per cent) were diagnosed after IIONM (P = 0·019). Operation with CIONM resulted in fewer permanent vocal fold palsies compared with IIONM after thyroid surgery in patients with benign disease. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Waiting for Disasters: A Risk Reduction Assessment of Technological Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovins, Jane; Winningham, Sam

2010-05-01

This session provides a risk reduction/mitigation assessment of natural hazards causation of technological disasters and possible solution. People use technology in an attempt to not only control their environment but nature itself in order to make them feel safe and productive. Most strategies for managing hazards followed a traditional planning model i.e. study the problem, identify and implement a solution, and move on to the next problem. This approach is often viewed as static model and risk reduction is more of an upward, positive, linear trend. However, technological disasters do not allow risk reduction action to neatly fit this upward, positive, linear trend with actual or potential threats to the environment and society. There are different types of technological disasters, including industrial accidents; pipeline ruptures; accidents at power, water and heat supply systems and other lines of communication; sudden collapse of buildings and mines; air crashes; shipwrecks; automobile and railway accidents to name a few. Natural factors can play an essential role in triggering or magnifying technological disasters. They can result from the direct destruction of given technical objects by a hazardous natural process such as the destruction of an atomic power plant or chemical plant due to an earthquake. Other examples would include the destruction of communications or infrastructure systems by heavy snowfalls, strong winds, avalanches. Events in the past ten years clearly demonstrate that natural disasters and the technological disasters that accompany them are not problems that can be solved in isolation and risk reduction can play an important part. Risk reduction was designed to head off the continuing rising financial and structural tolls from disasters. All Hazard Risk Reduction planning was supposed to include not only natural, but technological, and human-made disasters as well. The subsequent disaster risk reduction (DRR) indicators were to provide the corner stone to sustained risk reduction. We are able to look at the ongoing work by UNISDR and other partners to develop DRR indicators to track progress toward the goals outlined in the Hyogo Framework for Action adopted by 168 countries in Kobe, Japan in January 2005. In addition, we can look at various global examples. Therefore the true question we shall address is whether or not the DRR indicators form a virtuous circle was created with risk reduction with a series of positive events triggering a self-perpetuating pattern of other positive occurrences or a vicious circle.

Doxorubicin: Comparison between 3-h continuous and bolus intravenous administration paradigms on cardio-renal axis, mitochondrial sphingolipids and pathology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kamendi, Harriet, E-mail: harriet_kamendi@kandih.com; Zhou, Ying, E-mail: yingzhou526@gmail.com; Crosby, Meredith, E-mail: Meredith.crosby@astrazeneca.com

Doxorubicin (DOX) is a potent and effective broad-spectrum anthracycline antitumor agent, but its clinical usefulness is restricted by cardiotoxicity. This study compared pharmacokinetic, functional, structural and biochemical effects of single dose DOX bolus or 3-h continuous iv infusion (3-h iv) in the Han–Wistar rat to characterize possible treatment-related differences in drug safety over a 72 h observation period. Both DOX dosing paradigms significantly altered blood pressure, core body temperature and QA interval (indirect measure of cardiac contractility); however, there was no recovery observed in the bolus iv treatment group. Following the 3-h iv treatment, blood pressures and QA interval normalizedmore » by 36 h then rose above baseline levels over 72 h. Both treatments induced biphasic changes in heart rate with initial increases followed by sustained decreases. Cardiac injury biomarkers in plasma were elevated only in the bolus iv treatment group. Tissue cardiac injury biomarkers, cardiac mitochondrial complexes I, III and V and cardiac mitochondrial sphingolipids were decreased only in the bolus iv treatment group. Results indicate that each DOX dosing paradigm deregulates sinus rhythm. However, slowing the rate of infusion allows for functional compensation of blood pressure and may decrease the likelihood of cardiac myocyte necrosis via a mechanism associated with reduced mitochondrial damage. - Highlights: • Despite damaging cardiomyocytes, continuous iv doxorubicin improves cardiovascular outcomes. • This study supports administration of doxorubicin via slow continuous iv infusion limits acute cardio-toxicity. • This study supports use of metabolomic-derived lipid biomarkers for improved quantification of cardiovascular risk. • This study supports systems-based physiological approach to generate a data that can greatly inform risk assessments.« less

Geotechnical approach for occupational safety risk analysis of critical slope in open pit mining as implication for earthquake hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munirwansyah; Irsyam, Masyhur; Munirwan, Reza P.; Yunita, Halida; Zulfan Usrina, M.

2018-05-01

Occupational safety and health (OSH) is a planned effort to prevent accidents and diseases caused by work. In conducting mining activities often occur work accidents caused by unsafe field conditions. In open mine area, there is often a slump due to unstable slopes, which can disrupt the activities and productivity of mining companies. Based on research on stability of open pit slopes conducted by Febrianti [8], the Meureubo coal mine located in Aceh Barat district, on the slope of mine was indicated unsafe slope conditions, it will be continued research on OSH for landslide which is to understand the stability of the excavation slope and the shape of the slope collapse. Plaxis software was used for this research. After analyzing the slope stability and the effect of landslide on OSH with Job Safety Analysis (JSA) method, to identify the hazard to work safety, risk management analysis will be conducted to classified hazard level and its handling technique. This research aim is to know the level of risk of work accident at the company and its prevention effort. The result of risk analysis research is very high-risk value that is > 350 then the activity must be stopped until the risk can be reduced to reach the risk value limit < 20 which is allowed or accepted.

Perceptions of risk to HIV infection among adolescents in Uganda: are they related to sexual behaviour?

PubMed

Kibombo, Richard; Neema, Stella; Ahmed, Fatima H

2007-12-01

Uganda has been hailed as a success story in the fight against HIV that has seen a reversal in prevalence from a peak of 15% in 1991 to about 6.5% currently Since 1992, the largest and most consistent declines in HIV have occurred among the 15-19-year-olds. While many studies have examined how key behavior changes (Abstinence, Be faithful and Condom use) have contributed to the decline in HIV prevalence, few have studied the relationship between sexual behaviors and risk perception. Using data from the 2004 National Survey of Adolescents, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to examine the strength of the association between risky sexual behavior and perceived risk among 12-19-year-old adolescents in Uganda. After controlling for other correlates of sexual behavior such as age, education, residence, region and marital status, the findings indicate highly significant positive association between perceived risk and risky sexual behavior among males but not females. The findings reveal that, regardless of their current sexual behavior, most female adolescents in Uganda feel at great risk of HIV infection. The findings also show that adolescents with broken marriages are much more vulnerable to high risk sexual behaviors than other categories of adolescents. These results further emphasize the need for a holistic approach in addressing the social, economic and contextual factors that continue to put many adolescents at risk of HIV infection.

Assessment of Inhalation Risk to Public Health in the Southern Ural

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrikh, D. V.; Ivanova, S. V.; Riabchikova, I. A.

2017-11-01

A large number of iron and steel companies in the Southern Ural cause severe air pollution in the towns of Karabash (Chelyabinsk region), Sibay (Republic of Bashkortostan), Gai (Orenburg region). The article aims to assess the inhalation effects of hazardous substances on the Southern Ural population. The analysis focused on cancer and non-cancer risks to public health that arise from the surface air pollution caused by the metallurgical industry emissions. The assessment was carried out on the basis of methodological guidelines R 2.1.10.1920-04 using modern sanitary and hygienic standards. We analysed the level of ambient air pollution in the impact area of the metallurgical industry of Karabash, Sibay and Gai over the past eleven years. We established that the ambient air of all the studied towns contain carcinogenic substances that cause unacceptable cancer risks. Formaldehyde has the main share in this risk. We calculated the hazard quotients HQ for the identified priority pollutants and the total hazard indices HI. It is shown that the non-cancer inhalation risk to the Southern Ural population exceeds the safe level manyfold. Sulfur dioxide has the main share in this risk. The conducted assessment showed that in 2006-2016, there was a continuous inhalation exposure of the population to hazardous substances. Sanitary and technological solutions that will allow a reduction of risk to acceptable values are required.

40 CFR 264.93 - Hazardous constituents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... the ground-water quality; (vii) The potential for health risks caused by human exposure to waste... quality; (viii) The potential for health risks caused by human exposure to waste constituents; (ix) The... 264.93 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SOLID WASTES (CONTINUED...

When can immunotherapy for insect sting allergy be stopped?

PubMed

Müller, Ulrich R; Ring, Johannes

2015-01-01

Stings by Hymenoptera (honey bees, vespids, ants) can cause systemic allergic reactions (SARs). Venom immunotherapy (VIT) is highly effective and reduces an allergic patient's risk of a recurrent SAR to less than 5-20%. The risk of a recurrent SAR to a re-sting decreases the longer VIT is continued. The recommended duration of VIT is at least 3 to 5 years. Risk factors for recurrent SARs to a sting after stopping VIT have been identified and discussed: Recommendations concerning stopping VIT: For patients without any of the identified risk factors, VIT should be continued for 5 rather than 3 years. In patients with definite risk factors, a longer duration of VIT has to be discussed before stopping it. In mast cell disorders, VIT for life is recommended. Because of the residual risk of SARs after VIT, all patients are advised to carry an epinephrine autoinjector indefinitely and to continue to take measures to avoid Hymenoptera stings. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The emotional and professional wellbeing of Australian midwives: A comparison between those providing continuity of midwifery care and those not providing continuity.

PubMed

Fenwick, Jennifer; Sidebotham, Mary; Gamble, Jenny; Creedy, Debra K

2018-02-01

Continuity of midwifery care contributes to significant positive outcomes for women and babies. There is a perception that providing continuity of care may negatively impact on the wellbeing and professional lives of midwives. To compare the emotional and professional wellbeing as well as satisfaction with time off and work-life balance of midwives providing continuity of care with midwives not providing continuity. Online survey. Measures included; Copenhagen Burnout Inventory (CBI); Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale-21; and Perceptions of Empowerment in Midwifery Scale (PEMS-Revised). The sample (n=862) was divided into two groups; midwives working in continuity (n=214) and those not working in continuity (n=648). Mann Whitney U tests were used to compare the groups. The continuity group had significantly lower scores on each of the burnout subscales (CBI Personal p=.002; CBI Work p<.001; CBI Client p<.001) and Anxiety (p=.007) and Depression (p=.004) sub-scales. Midwives providing continuity reported significantly higher scores on the PEMs Autonomy/Empowerment subscale (p<.001) and the Skills and Resources subscale (p=.002). There was no difference between the groups in terms of satisfaction with time off and work-life balance. Our results indicate that providing continuity of midwifery care is also beneficial for midwives. Conversely, midwives working in shift-based models providing fragmented care are at greater risk of psychological distress. Maternity service managers should feel confident that re-orientating care to align with the evidence is likely to improve workforce wellbeing and is a sustainable way forward. Copyright © 2017 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ionizing radiation: future etiologic research and preventive strategies.

PubMed

Darby, S C; Inskip, P D

1995-11-01

Estimates of cancer risks following exposure to ionizing radiation traditionally have been based on the experience of populations exposed to substantial (and known) doses delivered over short periods of time. Examples include survivors of the atomic bombings at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and persons treated with radiation for benign or malignant disease. Continued follow-up of these populations is important to determine the long-term effects of exposure in childhood, to characterize temporal patterns of excess risk for different types of cancer, and to understand better the interactions between radiation and other host and environmental factors. Most population exposure to radiation occurs at very low dose rates. For low linear energy transfer (LET) radiations, it often has been assumed that cancer risks per unit dose are lower following protracted exposure than following acute exposure. Studies of nuclear workers chronically exposed over a working lifetime provide data that can be used to test this hypothesis, and preliminary indications are that the risks per unit dose for most cancers other than leukemia are similar to those for acute exposure. However, these results are subject to considerable uncertainty, and further information on this question is needed. Residential radon is the major source of population exposure to high-LET radiation. Current estimates of the risk of lung cancer due to residential exposure to radon and radon daughters are based on the experience of miners exposed to much higher concentrations. Data indicate that lung cancer risk among miners is inversely associated with exposure rate, and also is influenced by the presence of other lung carcinogens such as arsenic in the mine environment. Further study of populations of radon-exposed miners would be informative, particularly those exposed at below-average levels. More direct evidence on the effects of residential exposure to radon also is desirable but might be difficult to come by, as risks associated with radon levels found in most homes might be too low to be quantified accurately in epidemiological studies.

Ionizing radiation: future etiologic research and preventive strategies.

PubMed Central

Darby, S C; Inskip, P D

1995-01-01

Estimates of cancer risks following exposure to ionizing radiation traditionally have been based on the experience of populations exposed to substantial (and known) doses delivered over short periods of time. Examples include survivors of the atomic bombings at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and persons treated with radiation for benign or malignant disease. Continued follow-up of these populations is important to determine the long-term effects of exposure in childhood, to characterize temporal patterns of excess risk for different types of cancer, and to understand better the interactions between radiation and other host and environmental factors. Most population exposure to radiation occurs at very low dose rates. For low linear energy transfer (LET) radiations, it often has been assumed that cancer risks per unit dose are lower following protracted exposure than following acute exposure. Studies of nuclear workers chronically exposed over a working lifetime provide data that can be used to test this hypothesis, and preliminary indications are that the risks per unit dose for most cancers other than leukemia are similar to those for acute exposure. However, these results are subject to considerable uncertainty, and further information on this question is needed. Residential radon is the major source of population exposure to high-LET radiation. Current estimates of the risk of lung cancer due to residential exposure to radon and radon daughters are based on the experience of miners exposed to much higher concentrations. Data indicate that lung cancer risk among miners is inversely associated with exposure rate, and also is influenced by the presence of other lung carcinogens such as arsenic in the mine environment. Further study of populations of radon-exposed miners would be informative, particularly those exposed at below-average levels. More direct evidence on the effects of residential exposure to radon also is desirable but might be difficult to come by, as risks associated with radon levels found in most homes might be too low to be quantified accurately in epidemiological studies. PMID:8741792

Angiotensin‐II receptor 1 antagonist fetopathy – risk assessment, critical time period and vena cava thrombosis as a possible new feature

PubMed Central

Oppermann, Marc; Padberg, Stephanie; Kayser, Angela; Weber‐Schoendorfer, Corinna; Schaefer, Christof

2013-01-01

Aims Angiotensin‐II receptor 1 antagonists (AT1‐antagonists) may cause severe and even lethal fetopathy in late pregnancy. However, exposure still occurs in spite of warnings in package leaflets. This study aimed to assess the risk of fetopathy, the sensitive time window, and possible new symptoms in prospective as well as retrospective cases with AT1‐antagonist treatment during the second or third trimester of pregnancy. Methods Patients were enrolled by the Berlin Institute for Clinical Teratology and Drug Risk Assessment in Pregnancy between 1999 and 2011 through risk consultation. Symptoms defined as indicative of AT1‐antagonist fetopathy were: oligo‐/anhydramnios, renal insufficiency, lung hypoplasia, joint contractures, skull hypoplasia and fetal/neonatal death. Results In 5/29 (17%) prospectively enrolled cases with AT1‐antagonist exposure beyond the first trimester oligo‐/anhydramnios was diagnosed. Two infants showed additional symptoms of fetopathy. The risk is more than 30% if treatment continues beyond the 20th week of pregnancy. Oligo‐/anhydramnios was reversible after AT1‐antagonist withdrawal. Among 16 retrospective case reports, three infants presented with a thrombosis of the inferior vena cava in the vicinity of the renal veins. Four out of 13 live births did not survive. Conclusions Our survey suggests that the risk increases with duration of AT1‐antagonist treatment into late pregnancy and oligo‐/anhydramnios may be reversible after AT1‐antagonist discontinuation. Thrombosis of inferior vena cava may be a new feature of AT1‐antagonist fetopathy. AT1‐antagonist medication during pregnancy constitutes a considerable risk and must be discontinued immediately. In case of indicative diagnostic findings in either the fetus or newborn, previous maternal AT1‐antagonist exposure should be considered. PMID:22816796

Intergenerational continuity of child abuse among adolescent mothers: authoritarian parenting, community violence, and race.

PubMed

Valentino, Kristin; Nuttall, Amy K; Comas, Michelle; Borkowski, John G; Akai, Carol E

2012-05-01

Among the negative sequelae of child maltreatment is increased risk for continuity of maltreatment into subsequent generations. Despite acknowledgment in the literature that the pathways toward breaking the cycle of maltreatment are likely the result of dynamic interactions of risk and protective factors across multiple ecological levels, few studies have followed high-risk samples of maltreated and nonmaltreated parents over time to evaluate such processes. In the current investigation, exposure to community violence and authoritarian parenting attitudes were evaluated as predictors of the intergenerational continuity of abuse, and the moderating effect of African American race was examined. The sample included 70 mothers and their 18-year-old children, who have been followed longitudinally since the third trimester of the adolescent mothers' pregnancy. Results revealed that among mothers with a child abuse history, higher exposure to community violence and lower authoritarian parenting attitudes were associated with increased risk for intergenerational continuity of abuse. The relation of authoritarian parenting attitudes to intergenerational continuity was moderated by race; the protective effects of authoritarian parenting were limited to the African American families only. The salience of multiple ecological levels in interrupting the intergenerational continuity of child abuse is discussed, and implications for preventive programs are highlighted.

Patterns of change in withdrawal symptoms, desire to smoke, reward motivation, and response inhibition across three months of smoking abstinence

PubMed Central

Dawkins, Lynne; Powell, Jane H.; Pickering, Alan; Powell, John; West, Robert

2009-01-01

Aims We have previously demonstrated that acute smoking abstinence is associated with lowered reward motivation and impaired response inhibition. This prospective study explores whether these impairments, along with withdrawal-related symptoms, recover over three months of sustained abstinence. Design Participants completed a 12-hour abstinent baseline assessment and were then randomly allocated to quit unaided or continue smoking. All were re-tested after 7 days, 1 month and 3 months. Successful quitters’ scores were compared with those of continuing smokers, who were tested after ad libitum smoking. Setting Goldsmiths, University of London. Participants 33 smokers who maintained abstinence to 3 months, and 31 continuing smokers. Measurements Indices previously demonstrated in this cohort of smokers to be sensitive to the effect of nicotine vs. acute abstinence: reward motivation (SHAPS, CARROT, Stroop); tasks of response inhibition (antisaccade task; CPT) and clinical indices of mood (HADS), withdrawal symptoms (MPSS) and desire to smoke. Findings SHAPS anhedonia and reward responsivity (CARROT) showed significant improvement and plateaued after a month of abstinence, not differing from the scores of continuing smokers tested in a satiated state. Mood, other withdrawal symptoms and desire to smoke all declined from acute abstinence to 1 month of cessation and were equivalent, or lower than, the levels reported by continuing, satiated smokers. Neither group showed a change in CPT errors over time whilst continuing smokers, but not abstainers, showed improved accuracy on the antisaccade task at 3 months. Conclusion Appetitive processes and related affective states appear to improve in smokers who remain nicotine-free for 3 months whereas response inhibition does not. Although in need of replication, the results tentatively suggest that poor inhibitory control may constitute a long-term risk factor for relapse and could be a target for intervention. PMID:19344444

Efficacy of Prophylactic Uterine Artery Embolization before Obstetrical Procedures with High Risk for Massive Bleeding

PubMed Central

Ko, Heung Kyu; Ko, Gi Young; Gwon, Dong Il; Kim, Jin Hyung; Han, Kichang; Lee, Shin-Wha

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate the safety and efficacy of prophylactic uterine artery embolization (UAE) before obstetrical procedures with high risk for massive bleeding. Materials and Methods A retrospective review of 29 female patients who underwent prophylactic UAE from June 2009 to February 2014 was performed. Indications for prophylactic UAE were as follows: dilatation and curettage (D&C) associated with ectopic pregnancy (cesarean scar pregnancy, n = 9; cervical pregnancy, n = 6), termination of pregnancy with abnormal placentation (placenta previa, n = 8), D&C for retained placenta with vascularity (n = 5), and D&C for suspected gestational trophoblastic disease (n = 1). Their medical records were reviewed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of UAE. Results All women received successful bilateral prophylactic UAE followed by D&C with preservation of the uterus. In all patients, UAE followed by obstetrical procedure prevented significant vaginal bleeding on gynecologic examination. There was no major complication related to UAE. Vaginal spotting continued for 3 months in three cases. Although oligomenorrhea continued for six months in one patient, normal menstruation resumed in all patients afterwards. During follow-up, four had subsequent successful natural pregnancies. Spontaneous abortion occurred in one of them during the first trimester. Conclusion Prophylactic UAE before an obstetrical procedure in patients with high risk of bleeding or symptomatic bleeding may be a safe and effective way to manage or prevent serious bleeding, especially for women who wish to preserve their fertility. PMID:28246515

Differential sensitivity of developmental stages of the South American toad to a fungicide based on fludioxonil and metalaxyl-M.

PubMed

Svartz, Gabriela; Acquaroni, Mercedes; Pérez Coll, Cristina

2018-06-07

Agricultural fungicide application in Argentina has increased twice since 2008, with Maxim® XL (2.5% fludioxonil +1% metalaxyl-M) as one of the most used fungicide formulation. The toxicity of this pesticide on Rhinella arenarum was assessed by means of continuous (from embryo and larval development) and 24-h pulse exposure standardized bioassays. Lethality was concentration- and exposure time-dependent. Maxim® XL caused a progressive lethal effect along the bioassays with higher toxicity on embryos than larvae, obtaining 50% lethal concentrations at 96, 336, and 504 h of 10.85, 2.89, and 1.71 mg/L for embryos, and 43.94, 11.79, and 5.76 mg/L for larvae respectively. Lethal 504-h no observed effect concentration values for embryos and larvae were 1 and 2.5 mg/L respectively. A stage-dependent toxicity of Maxim® XL was also demonstrated within the embryo development, with early stages more sensitive than the later ones, and blastula as the most sensitive developmental stage. The risk quotients obtained for chronic risk assessment determined a potential threat for the survival and continuity of R. arenarum populations under these conditions. The results indicate that the levels of the fungicide reaching amphibian habitats could be risky for the early development of this amphibian species. This study also emphasizes the necessity to evaluate the chronic effects of fungicides in pesticide risk assessment.

Risk of in-hospital complications after radical cystectomy for urinary bladder carcinoma: population-based follow-up study of 7608 patients

PubMed Central

Hemelrijck, Mieke; Thorstenson, Andreas; Smith, Philip; Adolfsson, Jan; Akre, Olof

2013-01-01

Objective To evaluate the risk of different in-hospital complications for patients undergoing a radical cystectomy (RC), as limited nationwide population data on short- and long-term complications after RC is available, despite it being the standard treatment for localised muscle-invasive urinary bladder cancer (UBC). Patients and Methods In all, 7608 persons underwent a RC after UBC diagnosis, as registered in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1964 and 2008. We estimated the frequency and incidences and calculated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Results Urinary tract infection/septicaemia was the most common complication following radical cystectomy, with an incidence of 90.4 per 1,000 person years. There was a higher risk of urinary tract infection among patients who had a continent cutaneous reservoir (HR: 1.11 (0.94–1.30) or orthotopic neobladder 1.21 (1.05–1.39) than among those with ileal conduit. Similarly, continent cutaneous reservoir and orthotopic neobladder were associated with increased risks for wound and abdominal wall hernias, stones in the urinary tract, hydronephrosis and nephrostomy tube treatment, and kidney failure. In contrast, risk of bowel obstruction was lower among those with orthotopic neobladder than those with ileal conduit (HR: 0.64 (0.50–0.81)) and those with continent cutaneous reservoir (HR: 0.92 (0.73–1.16). Conclusions In-hospital complications after RC are numerous and continue to accumulate for many years after surgery, indicating the need for life-long follow-up of these patients. Comparison between different types of diversion should, however, be made with care because of potential confounding by indication. PMID:23906011

Optimizing Security of Cloud Computing within the DoD

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

information security governance and risk management; application security; cryptography; security architecture and design; operations security; business ...governance and risk management; application security; cryptography; security architecture and design; operations security; business continuity...20 7. Operational Security (OPSEC).........................................................20 8. Business Continuity Planning (BCP) and Disaster

Stopping versus continuing acetylsalicylic acid before coronary artery bypass surgery: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 14 randomized controlled trials with 4499 patients.

PubMed

Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros Oliveira; Soares, Artur Freire; Miranda, Rodrigo Gusmão Albuquerque; Araújo, Mayara Lopes; Menezes, Alexandre Motta; Silva, Frederico Pires Vasconcelos; Lima, Ricardo Carvalho

2017-11-01

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of continuing versus stopping aspirin [acetylsalicylic acid (ASA)] preoperatively in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL/Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CCTR), ClinicalTrials.gov, Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO), Literatura Latino Americana em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS), Google Scholar and reference lists of relevant articles were searched for randomized controlled trials that reported efficacy outcomes of myocardial infarction and mortality, and safety outcomes of blood loss, packed red blood cell transfusion and surgical re-exploration were compared between groups. Fourteen studies fulfilled our eligibility criteria and included a total of 4499 patients (2329 for 'continuing ASA' and 2170 for 'stopping ASA'). In the pooled analysis, continuing aspirin therapy did not reduce the risk of myocardial infarction [risk ratio 0.834, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.688-1.010; P = 0.063] or operative mortality (risk ratio 1.384, 95% CI 0.727-2.636; P = 0.323). Preoperative ASA increased postoperative chest tube drainage (mean difference 143 ml, 95% CI 39-248 ml; P = 0.007) and packed red blood cell transfusion (mean difference 142 ml, 95% CI 55-228; P = 0.001) but did not increase the risk of surgical re-exploration (risk ratio 1.316, 95% CI 0.910-1.905; P = 0.145). This meta-analysis found no statistically significant difference regarding the risk of operative mortality and myocardial infarction between the 'continuing ASA' and 'stopping ASA' strategies. On the other hand, the mean volume of blood loss and packed red blood cell transfusion was higher in the 'continuing ASA' group, but this finding did not translate into higher risk of reoperation for bleeding. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Dietary cholesterol, heart disease risk and cognitive dissonance.

PubMed

McNamara, Donald J

2014-05-01

In the 1960s, the thesis that dietary cholesterol contributes to blood cholesterol and heart disease risk was a rational conclusion based on the available science at that time. Fifty years later the research evidence no longer supports this hypothesis yet changing the dietary recommendation to limit dietary cholesterol has been a slow and at times contentious process. The preponderance of the clinical and epidemiological data accumulated since the original dietary cholesterol restrictions were formulated indicate that: (1) dietary cholesterol has a small effect on the plasma cholesterol levels with an increase in the cholesterol content of the LDL particle and an increase in HDL cholesterol, with little effect on the LDL:HDL ratio, a significant indicator of heart disease risk, and (2) the lack of a significant relationship between cholesterol intake and heart disease incidence reported from numerous epidemiological surveys. Over the last decade, many countries and health promotion groups have modified their dietary recommendations to reflect the current evidence and to address a now recognised negative consequence of ineffective dietary cholesterol restrictions (such as inadequate choline intake). In contrast, health promotion groups in some countries appear to suffer from cognitive dissonance and continue to promote an outdated and potentially hazardous dietary recommendation based on an invalidated hypothesis. This review evaluates the evidence for and against dietary cholesterol restrictions and the potential consequences of such restrictions.

Emerging dilemmas in the diagnosis and management of gastroesophageal reflux disease

PubMed Central

Kahrilas, Peter; Yadlapati, Rena; Roman, Sabine

2017-01-01

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is common, but less so than widely reported because of inconsistencies in definition. In clinical practice, the diagnosis is usually based on a symptom assessment without testing, and the extent of diagnostic testing pursued should be limited to that which guides management or which protects the patient from the risks of a potentially morbid treatment or an undetected early (or imminent) esophageal adenocarcinoma or which does both. When testing is pursued, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy is the most useful initial diagnostic test because it evaluates for the major potential morbidities (Barrett’s, stricture, and cancer) associated with GERD and facilitates the identification of some alternative diagnostic possibilities such as eosinophilic esophagitis. However, endoscopy is insensitive for diagnosing GERD because most patients with GERD have non-erosive reflux disease, a persistent diagnostic dilemma. Although many studies have tried to objectify the diagnosis of GERD with improved technology, this is ultimately a pragmatic diagnosis based on response to proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy, and, in the end, response to PPI therapy becomes the major indication for continued PPI therapy. Conversely, in the absence of objective criteria for GERD and the absence of apparent clinical benefit, PPI therapy is not indicated and should be discontinued. PPIs are well tolerated and safe, but nothing is perfectly safe, and in the absence of measurable benefit, even a miniscule risk dominates the risk-benefit assessment. PMID:29034088

Alcohol consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: effect modification by hypercholesterolemia: the Third Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005).

PubMed

Jang, Hyeongap; Jang, Won-Mo; Park, Jong-Heon; Oh, Juhwan; Oh, Mu-Kyung; Hwang, Soo-Hee; Kim, Yong-Ik; Lee, Jin-Seok

2012-01-01

While the protective nature of moderate alcohol consumption against diabetes mellitus is well known, inconsistent findings continue to be reported. The possibility of different mixes of effect modifiers has been raised as a reason for those inconsistent findings. Our study aim was to examine potential effect modifiers that can change the effect of alcohol consumption on type 2 diabetes. From data in the third Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 3,982 individuals over the age of 30 years who had not been diagnosed with diabetes were selected for inclusion in the study population. Breslow and Day's test and the Wald test between hypercholesterolemia and alcohol consumption in a multiple logistic regression model were used to assess effect modification. Odds ratios for diabetes stratified by alcohol consumption strata and assessed using Breslow and Day's tests for homogeneity indicated that hypercholesterolemia was not a significant confounding factor (p=0.01). However, the Wald test for interaction terms, which is a conservative method of effect modification, was significant (p=0.03). The results indicate that moderate alcohol consumption is not necessarily protective for type 2 diabetes mellitus, if a person has hypercholesterolemia. People who have hypercholesterolemia should be aware of the risk associated with alcohol consumption, a risk that contrasts with the reported protective effect of moderate alcohol consumption on diabetes.

Monitoring, exposure and risk assessment of sulfur dioxide residues in fresh or dried fruits and vegetables in China.

PubMed

Lou, Tiantian; Huang, Weisu; Wu, Xiaodan; Wang, Mengmeng; Zhou, Liying; Lu, Baiyi; Zheng, Lufei; Hu, Yinzhou

2017-06-01

Sulfur dioxide residues in 20 kinds of products collected from 23 provinces of China (Jilin, Beijing, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, Sichuan, Gansu, Neimenggu, Xinjiang and Hainan) were analysed, and a health risk assessment was performed. The detection rates of sulfur dioxide residues in fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, dried vegetables and dried fruits were 11.1-95.9%, 12.6-92.3%, 70.3-80.0% and 26.0-100.0%, respectively; the mean concentrations of residues were 2.7-120.8, 3.8-35.7, 26.9-99.1 and 12.0-1120.4 mg kg -1 , respectively. The results indicated that fresh vegetables and dried products are critical products; the daily intakes (EDIs) for children were higher than others; the hazard indexes (HI) for four groups were 0.019-0.033, 0.001-0.005, 0.007-0.016 and 0.002-0.005 at P50, respectively. But the HI was more than 1 at P99 by intake dried fruits and vegetables. Although the risk for consumers was acceptable on the whole, children were the most vulnerable group. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses indicated that the level of sulfur dioxide residues was the most influential variable in this model. Thus, continuous monitoring and stricter regulation of sulfites using are recommended in China.

Approving cancer treatments based on endpoints other than overall survival: an analysis of historical data using the PACE Continuous Innovation Indicators™ (CII).

PubMed

Brooks, Neon; Campone, Mario; Paddock, Silvia; Shortenhaus, Scott; Grainger, David; Zummo, Jacqueline; Thomas, Samuel; Li, Rose

2017-01-01

There is an active debate about the role that endpoints other than overall survival (OS) should play in the drug approval process. Yet the term 'surrogate endpoint' implies that OS is the only critical metric for regulatory approval of cancer treatments. We systematically analyzed the relationship between U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval and publication of OS evidence to understand better the risks and benefits of delaying approval until OS evidence is available. Using the PACE Continuous Innovation Indicators (CII) platform, we analyzed the effects of cancer type, treatment goal, and year of approval on the lag time between FDA approval and publication of first significant OS finding for 53 treatments approved between 1952 and 2016 for 10 cancer types (n = 71 approved indications). Greater than 59% of treatments were approved before significant OS data for the approved indication were published. Of the drugs in the sample, 31% had lags between approval and first published OS evidence of 4 years or longer. The average number of years between approval and first OS evidence varied by cancer type and did not reliably predict the eventual amount of OS evidence accumulated. Striking the right balance between early access and minimizing risk is a central challenge for regulators worldwide. We illustrate that endpoints other than OS have long helped to provide timely access to new medicines, including many current standards of care. We found that many critical drugs are approved many years before OS data are published, and that OS may not be the most appropriate endpoint in some treatment contexts. Our examination of approved treatments without significant OS data suggests contexts where OS may not be the most relevant endpoint and highlights the importance of using a wide variety of fit-for-purpose evidence types in the approval process.

A retrospective study of horses investigated for weight loss despite a good appetite (2002-2011).

PubMed

Metcalfe, L V A; More, S J; Duggan, V; Katz, L M

2013-05-01

Weight loss despite a good appetite is a frequent diagnostic challenge for equine veterinarians; however, there are few objective reports and little descriptive information regarding risk factors and prognostic indicators. To provide a descriptive epidemiological analysis of horses evaluated for weight loss despite a good appetite and evaluate relationships between historical and clinicopathological findings and final outcome (survival vs. nonsurvival) to identify risk factors and prognostic indicators. Medical records of horses referred for investigation of weight loss despite a good appetite were reviewed. Data collated included history, case details, clinical and diagnostic findings, diagnoses and outcome. Univariable associations were evaluated with a Mann-Whitney U test (continuous data), Fisher's exact test (categorical or binary data) or Pearson's rank correlation (continuous data), with P≤0.05 significant. Forty cases met the inclusion criteria. Total protein (P = 0.004) and albumin concentrations (P = 0.0008) at admission were higher in survivors than nonsurvivors, with total protein (r(2) = 0.31; P = 0.002) and albumin (r(2) = 0.36; P = 0.0002) positively correlated with outcome. Hypoproteinaemic (P = 0.008, odds ratio (OR) = 12, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.99-72.4) and hypoalbuminaemic (P = 0.0009, OR = 28, 95% CI = 2.94-266.6) animals were at greater odds for nonsurvival. Body condition score was positively correlated with total protein (r(2) = 0.16; P = 0.05) and albumin (r(2) = 0.53; P<0.0001) concentrations at admission and duration of clinical signs (r(2) = 0.19; P = 0.03). The severity of hypoproteinaemia and hypoalbuminaemia were related with nonsurvival. Body condition score and albumin concentration could potentially be used as prognostic indicators for survival. These findings highlight the importance of body condition assessment in conjunction with clinicopathological evaluation in horses with weight loss despite a good appetite. © 2012 EVJ Ltd.

Presence, distribution and risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in rice-wheat continuous cropping soils close to five industrial parks of Suzhou, China.

PubMed

Li, Yong; Long, Ling; Ge, Jing; Yang, Li-Xuan; Cheng, Jin-Jin; Sun, Ling-Xiang; Lu, Changying; Yu, Xiang-Yang

2017-10-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) accumulated in agricultural soils are likely to threaten human health and ecosystem though the food chain, therefore, it is worth to pay more attention to soil contamination by PAHs. In this study, the presence, distribution and risk assessment of 16 priority PAHs in rice-wheat continuous cropping soils close to industrial parks of Suzhou were firstly investigated. The concentrations of the total PAHs ranged from 125.99 ng/g to 796.65 ng/g with an average of 352.94 ng/g. Phenanthrene (PHE), fluoranthene (FLT), benzo [a] anthracene (BaA) and pyrene (PYR) were the major PAHs in those soil samples. The highest level of PAHs was detected in the soils around Chemical plant and Steelworks, followed by Printed wire board, Electroplate Factory and Paper mill. The composition of PAHs in the soils around Chemical plant was dominated by 3-ring PAHs, however, the predominant compounds were 4, 5-ring PAHs in the soils around other four factories. Meanwhile, the concentration of the total PAHs in the soils close to the factories showed a higher level of PAHs in November (during rice harvest) than that in June (during wheat harvest). Different with other rings of PAHs, 3-ring PAHs in the soils around Chemical plant and Steelworks had a higher concentration in June. The results of principal component analysis and isomeric ratio analysis suggested that PAHs in the studied areas mainly originated from biomass, coal and petroleum combustion. The risk assessment indicated that higher carcinogenic risk was found in those sites closer to the industrial park. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Treatment-resistant and insufficiently treated depression and all-cause mortality following myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Scherrer, Jeffrey F; Chrusciel, Timothy; Garfield, Lauren D; Freedland, Kenneth E; Carney, Robert M; Hauptman, Paul J; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Owen, Richard; Lustman, Patrick J

2012-02-01

Depression is a known risk factor for mortality after an acute myocardial infarction. Patients with treatment-responsive depression may have a better prognosis than those with treatment-resistant depression. We sought to determine whether mortality following acute myocardial infarction was associated with treatment-resistant depression. Follow-up began after myocardial infarction and continued until death or censorship. Depression was counted as present if diagnosed any time during the study period. Treatment for depression was defined as receipt of 12 or more weeks of continuous antidepressant therapy at a therapeutic dose during follow-up. Treatment-resistant depression was defined as use of two or more antidepressants plus augmentation therapy, receipt of electroconvulsive therapy or use of monoamine oxidase inhibitors. Mean duration of follow-up was 39 months. During follow-up of 4037 patients with major depressive disorder who had had a myocardial infarction, 6.9% of those with insufficiently treated depression, 2.4% of those with treated depression and 5.0% of those with treatment-resistant depression died. A multivariable survival model that adjusted for sociodemographics, anxiety disorders, beta-blocker use, mortality risk factors and health service utilisation indicated that compared with treated patients, insufficiently treated patients were 3.04 (95% CI 2.12-4.35) times more likely and patients with treatment-resistant depression were 1.71 (95% CI 1.05-2.79) times more likely to die. All-cause mortality following an acute myocardial infarction is greatest in patients with depression who are insufficiently treated and is a risk in patients with treatment-resistant depression. However, the risk of mortality associated with treatment-resistant depression is partly explained by comorbid disorders. Further studies are warranted to determine whether changes in depression independently predict all-cause mortality.

Awareness levels about breast cancer risk factors, early warning signs, and screening and therapeutic approaches among Iranian adult women: a large population based study using latent class analysis.

PubMed

Tazhibi, Mahdi; Feizi, Awat

2014-01-01

Breast cancer (BC) continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality among women throughout the world and in Iran. Lack of awareness and early detection program in developing country is a main reason for escalating the mortality. The present research was conducted to assess the Iranian women's level of knowledge about breast cancer risk factors, early warning signs, and therapeutic and screening approaches, and their correlated determinants. In a cross-sectional study, 2250 women before participating at a community based screening and public educational program in an institute of cancer research in Isfahan, Iran, in 2012 were investigated using a self-administered questionnaire about risk factors, early warning signs, and therapeutic and screening approaches of BC. Latent class regression as a comprehensive statistical method was used for evaluating the level of knowledge and its correlated determinants. Only 33.2%, 31.9%, 26.7%, and 35.8% of study participants had high awareness levels about screening approaches, risk factors, early warning signs and therapeutic modalities of breast cancer, respectively, and majority had poor to moderate knowledge levels. Most effective predictors of high level of awareness were higher educational qualifications, attending in screening and public educational programs, personal problem, and family history of BC, respectively. Results of current study indicated that the levels of awareness among study population about key elements of BC are low. These findings reenforce the continuing need for more BC education through conducting public and professional programs that are intended to raise awareness among younger, single women and those with low educational attainments and without family history.

Diastolic wall strain is associated with incident heart failure in African Americans: Insights from the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

PubMed

Kamimura, Daisuke; Suzuki, Takeki; Hall, Michael E; Wang, Wanmei; Winniford, Michael D; Shah, Amil M; Rodriguez, Carlos J; Butler, Kenneth R; Mosley, Thomas H

2018-05-01

Increased left ventricular (LV) myocardial stiffness may be associated with impaired LV hemodynamics and incident heart failure (HF). However, an indicator that estimates LV myocardial stiffness easily and non-invasively is lacking. The purpose of this study was to determine whether diastolic wall strain (DWS), an echocardiographic estimator of LV myocardial stiffness, is associated with incident HF in a middle-aged community-based cohort of African Americans. We investigated associations between DWS and incident HF among 1528 African Americans (mean age 58.5 years, 66% women) with preserved LV ejection fraction (EF ≥50%) and without a history of cardiovascular disease in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Participants with the smallest DWS quintile (more LV myocardial stiffness) had a higher LV mass index, higher relative wall thickness, and lower arterial compliance than those in the larger four DWS quintiles (p<0.01 for all). Over a mean follow-up of 15.6 years, there were 251 incident HF events (incidence rate: 10.9 per 1000 person-years). After adjustment for traditional risk factors and incident coronary artery disease, both continuous and categorical DWS were independently associated with incident HF (HR 1.21, 95%CI 1.04-1.41 for 0.1 decrease in continuous DWS, p=0.014, HR 1.40, 95%CI 1.05-1.87 for the smallest DWS quintile vs other combined quintiles, p=0.022). DWS was independently associated with an increased risk of incident HF in a community-based cohort of African Americans. DWS could be used as a qualitative estimator of LV myocardial stiffness. Copyright © 2017 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public policy, human consequences: the gap between biomedicine and psychosocial reality.

PubMed

McMurtry, Robert; Bultz, Barry D

2005-09-01

Despite evidence-based research demonstrating the high prevalence rates of emotional distress, medical systems continue to focus their attention on biomedical aspects of treatment leaving a significant gap in patient care. This paper reflects on values and policy and suggests that we are unlikely to change health care systems unless we routinely address comprehensive aspects of the patient's experience. If we do not measure indicators of emotional distress, we risk not responding to this significant aspect of the cancer experience. The key message to health care providers here is: what we measure is what we act upon.

Risk Evaluation of Business Continuity Management by Using Green Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gang, Chen

IT disasters can be seen as the test of the ability in communities and firms to effectively protect their information and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. In this paper, we use a literature meta-analysis method to identify potential research directions in Green Business Continuity Management (GBCM). The concept and characteristics of GBCM are discussed. We analysis the connotation and the sources of green technology risk. An assessment index system is established from the perspectives of GBCM. A fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is introduced to assess the risks of green technology in Business Continuity Management.

Comparison of filters for concentrating microbial indicators and pathogens in lake-water samples

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, Donna S.; Stelzer, Erin A.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Huitger, Carrie; Bushon, Rebecca N.; Ip, Hon S.; Ware, Michael W.; Villegas, Eric N.; Gallardo, Vincent; Lindquist, H.D. Alan

2013-01-01

Bacterial indicators are used to indicate increased health risk from pathogens and to make beach closure and advisory decisions; however, beaches are seldom monitored for the pathogens themselves. Studies of sources and types of pathogens at beaches are needed to improve estimates of swimming-associated health risks. It would be advantageous and cost-effective, especially for studies conducted on a regional scale, to use a method that can simultaneously filter and concentrate all classes of pathogens from the large volumes of water needed to detect pathogens. In seven recovery experiments, stock cultures of viruses and protozoa were seeded into 10-liter lake water samples, and concentrations of naturally occurring bacterial indicators were used to determine recoveries. For the five filtration methods tested, the highest median recoveries were as follows: glass wool for adenovirus (4.7%); NanoCeram for enterovirus (14.5%) and MS2 coliphage (84%); continuous-flow centrifugation (CFC) plus Virocap (CFC+ViroCap) for Escherichia coli (68.3%) and Cryptosporidium (54%); automatic ultrafiltration (UF) for norovirus GII (2.4%); and dead-end UF for Enterococcus faecalis (80.5%), avian influenza virus (0.02%), and Giardia (57%). In evaluating filter performance in terms of both recovery and variability, the automatic UF resulted in the highest recovery while maintaining low variability for all nine microorganisms. The automatic UF was used to demonstrate that filtration can be scaled up to field deployment and the collection of 200-liter lake water samples.

Comparison of Filters for Concentrating Microbial Indicators and Pathogens in Lake Water Samples

PubMed Central

Stelzer, Erin A.; Brady, Amie M. G.; Huitger, Carrie; Bushon, Rebecca N.; Ip, Hon S.; Ware, Michael W.; Villegas, Eric N.; Gallardo, Vicente; Lindquist, H. D. Alan

2013-01-01

Bacterial indicators are used to indicate increased health risk from pathogens and to make beach closure and advisory decisions; however, beaches are seldom monitored for the pathogens themselves. Studies of sources and types of pathogens at beaches are needed to improve estimates of swimming-associated health risks. It would be advantageous and cost-effective, especially for studies conducted on a regional scale, to use a method that can simultaneously filter and concentrate all classes of pathogens from the large volumes of water needed to detect pathogens. In seven recovery experiments, stock cultures of viruses and protozoa were seeded into 10-liter lake water samples, and concentrations of naturally occurring bacterial indicators were used to determine recoveries. For the five filtration methods tested, the highest median recoveries were as follows: glass wool for adenovirus (4.7%); NanoCeram for enterovirus (14.5%) and MS2 coliphage (84%); continuous-flow centrifugation (CFC) plus Virocap (CFC+ViroCap) for Escherichia coli (68.3%) and Cryptosporidium (54%); automatic ultrafiltration (UF) for norovirus GII (2.4%); and dead-end UF for Enterococcus faecalis (80.5%), avian influenza virus (0.02%), and Giardia (57%). In evaluating filter performance in terms of both recovery and variability, the automatic UF resulted in the highest recovery while maintaining low variability for all nine microorganisms. The automatic UF was used to demonstrate that filtration can be scaled up to field deployment and the collection of 200-liter lake water samples. PMID:23263948

Cost-effectiveness analysis of valsartan versus losartan and the effect of switching.

PubMed

Baker, Timothy M; Goh, Jowern; Johnston, Atholl; Falvey, Heather; Brede, Yvonne; Brown, Ruth E

2012-01-01

Losartan will shortly become generic, and this may encourage switching to the generic drug. However, valsartan was shown in a meta-analysis to be statistically superior in lowering blood pressure (BP) to losartan. This paper examines the costs of treatment with these two drugs and the potential consequences of switching established valsartan patients to generic losartan. A US payer cost-effectiveness model was developed incorporating the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events related to systolic blood pressure (SBP) control comparing valsartan to continual losartan and switching from valsartan to generic losartan. The model, based upon a meta-analysis by Nixon et al. and Framingham equations, included first CVD event costs calculated from US administrative data sets and utility values from published sources. The modeled outcomes were number of CVD events, costs and incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and life-year (LY). Fewer patients had fatal and non-fatal CVD events with valsartan therapy compared with continual losartan and with patients switched from valsartan to generic losartan. The base-case model results indicated that continued treatment with valsartan had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $27,268 and $25,460 per life year gained, and $32,313 and $30,170 per QALY gained, relative to continual losartan and switching treatments, respectively. Sensitivity analyses found that patient discontinuation post-switching was a sensitive parameter. Including efficacy offsets with lowered adherence or discontinuation resulted in more favorable ratios for valsartan compared to switching therapy. The model does not evaluate post-primary CVD events and considers change in SBP from baseline level as the sole predictor of CVD risk. Valsartan appears to be cost-effective compared to switching to generic losartan and switching to the generic drug does not support a cost offset argument over the longer term. Physicians should continue to consider the needs of individual patient and not cost offsets.

Soil moisture monitoring for crop management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, Dale

2015-07-01

The 'Risk management through soil moisture monitoring' project has demonstrated the capability of current technology to remotely monitor and communicate real time soil moisture data. The project investigated whether capacitance probes would assist making informed pre- and in-crop decisions. Crop potential and cropping inputs are increasingly being subject to greater instability and uncertainty due to seasonal variability. In a targeted survey of those who received regular correspondence from the Department of Primary Industries it was found that i) 50% of the audience found the information generated relevant for them and less than 10% indicted with was not relevant; ii) 85% have improved their knowledge/ability to assess soil moisture compared to prior to the project, with the most used indicator of soil moisture still being rain fall records; and iii) 100% have indicated they will continue to use some form of the technology to monitor soil moisture levels in the future. It is hoped that continued access to this information will assist informed input decisions. This will minimise inputs in low decile years with a low soil moisture base and maximise yield potential in more favourable conditions based on soil moisture and positive seasonal forecasts

Modern risk stratification in coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Ginghina, C; Bejan, I; Ceck, C D

2011-11-14

The prevalence and impact of cardiovascular diseases in the world are growing. There are 2 million deaths due to cardiovascular disease each year in the European Union; the main cause of death being the coronary heart disease responsible for 16% of deaths in men and 15% in women. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Romania is estimated at 7 million people, of which 2.8 million have ischemic heart disease. In this epidemiological context, risk stratification is required for individualization of therapeutic strategies for each patient. The continuing evolution of the diagnosis and treatment techniques combines personalized medicine with the trend of therapeutic management leveling, based on guidelines and consensus, which are in constant update. The guidelines used in clinical practice have involved risk stratification and identification of patient groups in whom the risk-benefit ratio of using new diagnostic and therapeutic techniques has a positive value. Presence of several risk factors may indicate a more important total risk than the presence / significant increase from normal values of a single risk factor. Modern trends in risk stratification of patients with coronary heart disease are polarized between the use of simple data versus complex scores, traditional data versus new risk factors, generally valid scores versus personalized scores, depending on patient characteristics, type of coronary artery disease, with impact on the suggested therapy. All known information and techniques can be integrated in a complex system of risk assessment. The current trend in risk assessment is to identify coronary artery disease in early forms, before clinical manifestation, and to guide therapy, particularly in patients with intermediate risk, which can be classified in another class of risk based on new obtained information.

Improving Our Odds: Success through Continuous Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.

2009-01-01

Launching a rocket, running a business, driving to work and even day-to-day living all involve some degree of risk. Risk is ever present yet not always recognized, adequately assessed and appropriately mitigated. Identification, assessment and mitigation of risk are elements of the risk management component of the "continuous improvement" way of life that has become a hallmark of successful and progressive enterprises. While the application of risk management techniques to provide continuous improvement may be detailed and extensive, the philosophy, ideals and tools can be beneficially applied to all situations. Experiences with the use of risk identification, assessment and mitigation techniques for complex systems and processes are described. System safety efforts and tools used to examine potential risks of the Ares I First Stage of NASA s new Constellation Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) presently being designed are noted as examples. Recommendations from lessons learned are provided for the application of risk management during the development of new systems as well as for the improvement of existing systems. Lessons learned and suggestions given are also examined for applicability to simple systems, uncomplicated processes and routine personal daily tasks. This paper informs the reader of varied uses of risk management efforts and techniques to identify, assess and mitigate risk for improvement of products, success of business, protection of people and enhancement of personal life.

Growing pains: How risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth.

PubMed

Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

2014-08-01

In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals' decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Near-infrared spectroscopy as a predictor of clinical deterioration: a case report of two infants with duct-dependent congenital heart disease.

PubMed

Mebius, Mirthe J; du Marchie Sarvaas, Gideon J; Wolthuis, Diana W; Bartelds, Beatrijs; Kneyber, Martin C J; Bos, Arend F; Kooi, Elisabeth M W

2017-03-16

Some infants with congenital heart disease are at risk of in-hospital cardiac arrest. To better foresee cardiac arrest in infants with congenital heart disease, it might be useful to continuously assess end-organ perfusion. Near-infrared spectroscopy is a non-invasive method to continuously assess multisite regional tissue oxygen saturation. We report on two infants with duct-dependent congenital heart disease who demonstrated a gradual change in cerebral and/or renal tissue oxygen saturation before cardiopulmonary resuscitation was required. In both cases, other clinical parameters such as heart rate, arterial oxygen saturation and blood pressure did not indicate that deterioration was imminent. These two cases demonstrate that near-infrared spectroscopy might contribute to detecting a deteriorating clinical condition and might therefore be helpful in averting cardiopulmonary collapse and need for resuscitation in infants with congenital heart disease.

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

Reducing risks from hazardous glacier lakes in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru): Six decades of experience and perspectives for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portocarrero, Cesar; Cochachin, Alejo; Frey, Holger; González, Cesar; Haeberli, Wilfried; Huggel, Christian

2016-04-01

Outbursts from glacier lakes at various spatial and temporal scales have had marked geomorphological effects in many mountain ranges. In many glacierized Andean mountain regions substrates of human settlements made out of flood and debris-flow deposits are testimonies of such events. Examples in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are the towns of Caraz, Carhuaz or parts of Huaraz. Continued glacier shrinking since the end of the Little Ice Age caused the formation or enlargement of numerous lakes. The outburst of Laguna Palcacocha, destroying the centre of Huaraz and causing more than 1800 losses of life in December 1941, marked the beginning of systematic risk reduction work in Peru. Corresponding efforts included glacier and lake inventories, hazard assessments, definition of high-risk situations, and completion of engineering work for lake-level lowering in more than 30 cases. The latter comprises outlet reinforcements on morainic dams as well as artificial tunnels in bedrock thresholds. This work has been remarkably efficient as documented in the latest case of the Laguna Huallcacocha (Carhuaz-Ancash), where the earlier made installations withstood the erosive power of an impact wave from an ice avalanche in 2015. In the case of the Laguna 513, the impact wave and far-reaching flood caused by a rock/ice avalanche from Nevado Hualcán in April 2010 showed that the risk had been essentially reduced by the preventive lake-level lowering in the early 1990s but not to zero. Risk assessments, planning, construction and non-structural risk reduction efforts continue. Work is in progress to increase the safety of Laguna Palcacocha where extensive assessments and model calculations had been carried out. Risks related to rock/ice avalanches into lakes from steep icy slopes and related to de-buttressing processes as well as long-term permafrost degradation increases. Based on morphological indications and numerical modelling (GlabTop) an inventory of possible future lakes likely to form with continued atmospheric warming and glacier retreat has been compiled. The possibility of monitoring the stability of slopes around lakes using satellite-based radar interferometry techniques has been tested in the case of Laguna Parón and a number of other lakes. Hence risk reduction measures applied to critical glacier lakes is based on rigorous science and research progress. For the future it is essential to integrate risk reduction with water resource management because shrinking glaciers reduce water availability during the dry season when various economic sectors depend on melt water. First experiences with development of multi-purpose projects combining risk and water resource management have shown the associated scientific, technical, social and legal challenges. A multi-disciplinary process involving multiple institutions and actors is necessary to secure sustainable development in the Andes of Peru, and related experiences are valuable for other high-mountain regions as well.

Preanalytical errors in medical laboratories: a review of the available methodologies of data collection and analysis.

PubMed

West, Jamie; Atherton, Jennifer; Costelloe, Seán J; Pourmahram, Ghazaleh; Stretton, Adam; Cornes, Michael

2017-01-01

Preanalytical errors have previously been shown to contribute a significant proportion of errors in laboratory processes and contribute to a number of patient safety risks. Accreditation against ISO 15189:2012 requires that laboratory Quality Management Systems consider the impact of preanalytical processes in areas such as the identification and control of non-conformances, continual improvement, internal audit and quality indicators. Previous studies have shown that there is a wide variation in the definition, repertoire and collection methods for preanalytical quality indicators. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry Working Group on Laboratory Errors and Patient Safety has defined a number of quality indicators for the preanalytical stage, and the adoption of harmonized definitions will support interlaboratory comparisons and continual improvement. There are a variety of data collection methods, including audit, manual recording processes, incident reporting mechanisms and laboratory information systems. Quality management processes such as benchmarking, statistical process control, Pareto analysis and failure mode and effect analysis can be used to review data and should be incorporated into clinical governance mechanisms. In this paper, The Association for Clinical Biochemistry and Laboratory Medicine PreAnalytical Specialist Interest Group review the various data collection methods available. Our recommendation is the use of the laboratory information management systems as a recording mechanism for preanalytical errors as this provides the easiest and most standardized mechanism of data capture.

Outcome of new benzodiazepine prescriptions to older adults in primary care.

PubMed

Simon, Gregory E; Ludman, Evette J

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the indications for benzodiazepine use, and the baseline characteristics, duration of use and clinical outcomes of older primary care patients prescribed benzodiazepines. Computerized records were used to identify outpatients (n=129) aged >or=60 years who received new benzodiazepine prescriptions from primary care physicians of a group model managed care organization. A baseline telephone survey assessed indications for prescription, sleep quality (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index), depression (Symptom Checklist depression scale and Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV), alcohol use (CAGE) and functional status (SF-36). A 2-month follow-up survey assessed benzodiazepine use, sleep quality and depression. The most common indications for prescription were insomnia (42%) and anxiety (36%). At baseline, participants reported moderate sleep disturbance (mean Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index=9.3, S.D.=4.0), only 15% met criteria for current depressive episode and only 3% reported at-risk alcohol use. After 2 months, 30% of participants used benzodiazepines at least daily. Both those continuing daily use and those not continuing daily use reported significant improvements in sleep quality and depression, with no difference between groups in rates of improvement. Initial benzodiazepine prescriptions to older adults are typically intended for the treatment of anxiety or insomnia, with little evidence for occult depression or alcohol abuse. A significant minority develops a pattern of long-term use, raising concerns about tolerance and dependence.

Integrated Risk Research. Case of Study: Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Jaimes, M.

2015-12-01

This integrated risk research include the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such hazard identification, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. We determined risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37ºN, 92.25ºW. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed mainly to earthquakes, landslides and floods. We developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic zonation, landslides and flood susceptibility using standard methodologies. Vulnerability was quantified from data collected from local families interviews considering five social variables: characteristics of housing construction, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing community plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception. Local families surveyed were randomly selected considering a sample statistically significant. Our results were spatially represented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Structural vulnerability curves were generated for typical housing constructions. Our integrated risk analysis demonstrates that the community of Motozintla has a high level of structural and socio-economical risk to floods and earthquakes. More than half of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan and perceive that they are in high risk to landslides and floods. Although the community is located in a high seismic risk zone, most of the local people believe that cannot be impacted by a large earthquake. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support local decision makers in developing an integrated comprehensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program.

Federal interagency communication strategies for addressing radiation emergencies and other public health crises.

PubMed

Miller, Charles W; McCurley, M Carol

2011-11-01

Federal agencies have a variety of roles and responsibilities related to communicating with the public before, during, and after a radiological emergency. To better understand the various efforts currently underway, the Radiation Studies Branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a roundtable of representatives from federal agencies with responsibility for communicating with the public about radiation emergencies. Roundtable participants shared valuable information about efforts underway to develop information and messages for a variety of audiences and agreed that continued interagency coordination and dialogue about communication before, during, and after an event are needed. The group suggested several strategies for future collaborative efforts and indicated a desire to continue working together to develop and assess messages for radiological emergency preparedness and response. The group also recommended that more work be done to determine whether messages need to be packaged or tailored for specific special populations and suggested that more research be conducted to answer questions about specific audience/cultural needs around communicating radiation risks. Since this roundtable, attendees have continued to work together to develop and test messages for the public.

Motivations for contralateral prophylactic mastectomy as a function of socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Baptiste, Dadrie F; MacGeorge, Erina L; Venetis, Maria K; Mouton, Ashton; Friley, L Brooke; Pastor, Rebekah; Hatten, Kristen; Lagoo, Janaka; Clare, Susan E; Bowling, Monet W

2017-02-01

Despite no demonstrated survival advantage for women at average risk of breast cancer, rates of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) continue to increase. Research reveals women with higher socioeconomic status (SES) are more likely to select CPM. This study examines how indicators of SES, age, and disease severity affect CPM motivations. Patients (N = 113) who underwent CPM at four Indiana University affiliated hospitals completed telephone interviews in 2013. Participants answered questions about 11 CPM motivations and provided demographic information. Responses to motivation items were factor analyzed, resulting in 4 motivational factors: reducing long-term risk, symmetry, avoiding future medical visits, and avoiding treatments. Across demographic differences, reducing long-term risk was the strongest CPM motivation. Lower income predicted stronger motivation to reduce long-term risk and avoid treatment. Older participants were more motivated to avoid treatment; younger and more-educated patients were more concerned about symmetry. Greater severity of diagnosis predicted avoiding treatments. Reducing long-term risk is the primary motivation across groups, but there are also notable differences as a function of age, education, income, and disease severity. To stop the trend of increasing CPM, physicians must tailor patient counseling to address motivations that are consistent across patient populations and those that vary between populations.

Young women's education and behavioural risk trajectories: clarifying their association with unintended-pregnancy resolution.

PubMed

Gomez-Scott, Jessica; Cooney, Teresa M

2014-06-01

In the USA, most pregnancies occurring to teenage women are unplanned, making both the decisions regarding their resolution and the consequences of those decisions important topics of inquiry. Substantial debate surrounds the potential consequences for young women of either carrying an unintended pregnancy to term or voluntarily terminating it. The present study utilises data from The US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health prospectively to examine the predictors of pregnancy resolution decisions in terms of young women's educational goals and their engagement in risk behaviours. Additionally, the long-term consequences of these decisions for education and risk-taking behaviours are identified. Results indicate that young women with strong educational goals have a greater likelihood of terminating an unintended pregnancy than those with low aspirations, and that pregnancy termination predicts higher educational attainment compared to motherhood. Risk behaviours did not predict pregnancy-resolution decisions, but young women who became mothers reported lower rates of subsequent substance use and fewer sexual partners post-pregnancy than those who terminated the pregnancy or who had never been pregnant. Motherhood appears to be a catalyst for lifestyle change among young women, limiting substance use and sexual partnering, in contrast to abortion, which appears to allow adolescents to continue risk-taking trajectories.

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Colorectal Cancer Risk-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2017-09-20

Diet and chronic inflammation of the colon have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). The possible link between inflammatory potential of diet, measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ), and CRC has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from nine studies were eligible, of which five were case-control and four were cohort studies. Results from meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII scores, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CRC. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed an overall 40% increased risk of CRC with moderate evidence of heterogeneity [relative risk (RR) = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26, 1.55; I ² = 69%, p < 0.001]. When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CRC of 7% for a 1-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the four prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet in preventing CRC. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CRC.

Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

PubMed

von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

2016-03-01

Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

Quality indicators for enteral and parenteral nutrition therapy: application in critically ill patients "at nutritional risk".

PubMed

Oliveira Filho, Ronaldo Sousa; Ribeiro, Lia Mara Kauchi; Caruso, Lucia; Lima, Patricia Azevedo; Damasceno, Náglia Raquel Teixeira; García Soriano, Francisco

2016-09-20

Quality Indicators for Nutritional Therapy (QINT) allow a practical assessment of nutritional therapy (NT) quality. To apply and monitor QINT for critically ill patients at nutritional risk. Cross sectional study including critically ill patients > 18 years old, at nutritional risk, on exclusive enteral (ENT) or parenteral nutritional therapy (PNT) for > 72 hours. After three consecutive years, 9 QINT were applied and monitored. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS version 17.0. A total of 145 patients were included, 93 patients were receiving ENT, among then 65% were male and the mean age was 55.7 years (± 17.4); 52 patients were receiving PNT, 67% were male and the mean age was 58.1 years (± 17.4). All patients (ENT and PNT) were nutritionally screened at admission and their energy and protein needs were individually estimated. Only ENT was early initiated, more than 70% of the prescribed ENT volume was infused and there was a reduced withdrawal of enteral feeding tube. The frequency of diarrhea episodes and digestive fasting were not adequate in ENT patients. The proper supply of energy was contemplated only for PNT patients and there was an expressive rate of oral intake recovery in ENT patients. After three years of research, the percentage of QINT adequacy varied between 55%-77% for ENT and 60%-80% for PNT. The results were only made possible by the efforts of a multidisciplinary team and the continuous re-evaluation of the procedures in order to maintain the nutritional assistance for patients at nutritional risk.

Current implications of past DDT indoor spraying in Oman.

PubMed

Booij, Petra; Holoubek, Ivan; Klánová, Jana; Kohoutek, Jiří; Dvorská, Alice; Magulová, Katarína; Al-Zadjali, Said; Čupr, Pavel

2016-04-15

In Oman, DDT was sprayed indoors during an intensive malaria eradication program between 1976 and 1992. DDT can remain for years after spraying and is associated with potential health risk. This raises the concern for human exposure in areas where DDT was used for indoor spraying. Twelve houses in three regions with a different history of DDT indoor spraying were chosen for a sampling campaign in 2005 to determine p,p'-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (p,p'-DDT), p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p'-DDE) and p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (p,p'-DDD) levels in indoor air, dust, and outdoor soil. Although DDT was only sprayed indoor, p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDD were also found in outdoor soil. The results indicate that release and exposure continue for years after cessation of spraying. The predicted cancer risk based on concentrations determined in 2005, indicate that there was still a significant cancer risk up to 13 to 16years after indoor DDT spraying. A novel approach, based on region-specific half-lives, was used to predict concentrations in 2015 and showed that more than 21years after spraying, cancer risk for exposure to indoor air, dust, and outdoor soil are acceptable in Oman for adults and young children. The model can be used for other locations and countries to predict prospective exposure of contaminants based on indoor experimental measurements and knowledge about the spraying time-schedule to extrapolate region-specific half-lives and predict effects on the human population years after spraying. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Post-Fire Forest Resilience Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

Evaluating post-fire forest resilience using GIS and multi-criteria analysis: an example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece.

PubMed

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

Dietary Inflammatory Index and risk of esophageal squamous cell cancer in a case-control study from Iran

PubMed Central

Shivappa, Nitin; Hébert, James R.; Rashidkhani, Bahram

2015-01-01

Background Diet and inflammation have been suggested to be important risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). In this study, we examined the ability of the dietary inflammatory index (DII) to predict ESCC in a case-control study conducted in Iran. Methods This study included 47 ESCC cases and 96 controls hospitalized for acute non-neoplastic diseases. The DII was computed based on dietary intake assessed by a previously validated food frequency questionnaire. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for age, energy, sex, BMI, years of education, physical activity, smoking and gastro-esophageal reflux. Results Subjects with higher DII scores (i.e., with a more pro-inflammatory diet) had a higher risk of ESCC, with the DII being used as both a continuous variable (ORcontinuous 3.58, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.76–7.26; one unit increase corresponding to ≈16% of its range in the current study) and a categorical variable (ORdii>1.20 vs ≤ 1.208.24, 95%CI 2.03–33.47). Conclusion These results indicate that a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with increased risk of ESCC. PMID:26400625

Experimental evaluation of the Continuous Risk Profile (CRP) approach to the current Caltrans methodology for high collision concentration location identification

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-03-31

This report evaluates the performance of Continuous Risk Profile (CRP) compared with the : Sliding Window Method (SWM) and Peak Searching (PS) methods. These three network : screening methods all require the same inputs: traffic collision data and Sa...

Experimental evaluation of the Continuous Risk Profile (CRP) approach to the current Caltrans methodology for high collision concentration location identification.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-03-01

This report evaluates the performance of Continuous Risk Profile (CRP) compared with the : Sliding Window Method (SWM) and Peak Searching (PS) methods. These three network : screening methods all require the same inputs: traffic collision data and Sa...

Long-Term Study of Safe Internet Use of Young Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Valcke, M.; De Wever, B.; Van Keer, H.; Schellens, T.

2011-01-01

The Internet is an evolving medium that continuously presents new functionalities. Accordingly, also children's Internet usage changes continuously. This requires being vigilant about related Internet risk behavior and safe Internet use. The present article presents a structured overview of Internet risks and summarizes approaches to foster safe…

A New Technique for Mitigating Risk on US College Campuses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Stephanie; White, Rebecca J.; Hertz, Giles

2008-01-01

High-profile criminal acts continue to plague United States (US) college campuses despite recent efforts to implement more aggressive risk mitigation practices, such as criminal background checks. Despite these efforts, incidents such as the most recent shootings at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University continue to demonstrate that,…

Enhancing infrastructure resilience through business continuity planning.

PubMed

Fisher, Ronald; Norman, Michael; Klett, Mary

2017-01-01

Critical infrastructure is crucial to the functionality and wellbeing of the world around us. It is a complex network that works together to create an efficient society. The core components of critical infrastructure are dependent on one another to function at their full potential. Organisations face unprecedented environmental risks such as increased reliance on information technology and telecommunications, increased infrastructure interdependencies and globalisation. Successful organisations should integrate the components of cyber-physical and infrastructure interdependencies into a holistic risk framework. Physical security plans, cyber security plans and business continuity plans can help mitigate environmental risks. Cyber security plans are becoming the most crucial to have, yet are the least commonly found in organisations. As the reliance on cyber continues to grow, it is imperative that organisations update their business continuity and emergency preparedness activities to include this.

Using smartphones to decrease substance use via self-monitoring and recovery support: study protocol for a randomized control trial.

PubMed

Scott, Christy K; Dennis, Michael L; Gustafson, David H

2017-08-10

Alcohol abuse, other substance use disorders, and risk behaviors associated with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) represent three of the top 10 modifiable causes of mortality in the US. Despite evidence that continuing care is effective in sustaining recovery from substance use disorders and associated behaviors, patients rarely receive it. Smartphone applications (apps) have been effective in delivering continuing care to patients almost anywhere and anytime. This study tests the effectiveness of two components of such apps: ongoing self-monitoring through Ecological Momentary Assessments (EMAs) and immediate recovery support through Ecological Momentary Interventions (EMIs). The target population, adults enrolled in substance use disorder treatment (n = 400), are being recruited from treatment centers in Chicago and randomly assigned to one of four conditions upon discharge in a 2 × 2 factorial design. Participants receive (1) EMAs only, (2) EMIs only, (3) combined EMAs + EMIs, or (4) a control condition without EMA or EMI for 6 months. People in the experimental conditions receive smartphones with the apps (EMA and/or EMI) specific to their condition. Phones alert participants in the EMA and EMA + EMI conditions at five random times per day and present participants with questions about people, places, activities, and feelings that they experienced in the past 30 min and whether these factors make them want to use substances, support their recovery, or have no impact. Those in the EMI and EMA + EMI conditions have continual access to a suite of support services. In the EMA + EMI condition, participants are prompted to use the EMI(s) when responses to the EMA(s) indicate risk. All groups have access to recovery support as usual. The primary outcome is days of abstinence from alcohol and other drugs. Secondary outcomes are number of HIV risk behaviors and whether abstinence mediates the effects of EMA, EMI, or EMA + EMI on HIV risk behaviors. This project will enable the field to learn more about the effects of EMAs and EMIs on substance use disorders and HIV risk behaviors, an understanding that could potentially make treatment and recovery more effective and more widely accessible. ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT02132481 . Registered on 5 May 2014.

[Continuous bladder irrigation following transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP)].

PubMed

Nojiri, Yoshikatsu; Okamura, Kikuo; Kinukawa, Tsuneo; Ozawa, Hideo; Saito, Shiro; Okumura, Kazuhiro; Terai, Akito; Takei, Mineo

2007-09-01

We investigated whether continuous bladder irrigation after Transurethral Resection of the Prostate (TURP) would prevent catheter obstruction by the clot. We analyzed data from 761 patients registered in "a multi-institutional study of TURP clinical pathway" sponsored by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare between 2001 and 2003. The difference of clinical backgrounds of the cases, resected weight, operating time, risk of being feverish, risk of catheter obstruction and chance of postoperative Transurethral Fulguration (TUF) between each institution were investigated. The risk factor of catheter obstruction is characterized and the significance of continuous bladder irrigation is discussed. The incidence of catheter obstruction in the four institutions, in which 90% or more of patients underwent continuous bladder irrigation, was significantly lower than that in the three institutions, in which continuous bladder irrigation was performed in selected patients whose hematuria was severe (4.4% VS 12.9%, p<0.001). There was no difference in the frequency of either pyrexia or postoperative TUF. Logistic regression analysis showed that significant factors for catheter obstruction are continuous bladder irrigation, resected tissue weight and preoperative urinary infection. Routine continuous bladder irrigation achieved a lower incidence of catheter obstruction. However, we recommend that urologists should decide whether to perform routine continuous irrigation, considering the frequency of catheter obstruction, safety, labor and cost.

Mild cognitive impairment: baseline and longitudinal structural MR imaging measures improve predictive prognosis.

PubMed

McEvoy, Linda K; Holland, Dominic; Hagler, Donald J; Fennema-Notestine, Christine; Brewer, James B; Dale, Anders M

2011-06-01

To assess whether single-time-point and longitudinal volumetric magnetic resonance (MR) imaging measures provide predictive prognostic information in patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This study was conducted with institutional review board approval and in compliance with HIPAA regulations. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants or the participants' legal guardians. Cross-validated discriminant analyses of MR imaging measures were performed to differentiate 164 Alzheimer disease (AD) cases from 203 healthy control cases. Separate analyses were performed by using data from MR images obtained at one time point or by combining single-time-point measures with 1-year change measures. Resulting discriminant functions were applied to 317 MCI cases to derive individual patient risk scores. Risk of conversion to AD was estimated as a continuous function of risk score percentile. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were computed for risk score quartiles. Odds ratios (ORs) for the conversion to AD were computed between the highest and lowest quartile scores. Individualized risk estimates from baseline MR examinations indicated that the 1-year risk of conversion to AD ranged from 3% to 40% (average group risk, 17%; OR, 7.2 for highest vs lowest score quartiles). Including measures of 1-year change in global and regional volumes significantly improved risk estimates (P = 001), with the risk of conversion to AD in the subsequent year ranging from 3% to 69% (average group risk, 27%; OR, 12.0 for highest vs lowest score quartiles). Relative to the risk of conversion to AD conferred by the clinical diagnosis of MCI alone, MR imaging measures yield substantially more informative patient-specific risk estimates. Such predictive prognostic information will be critical if disease-modifying therapies become available. http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101975/-/DC1. RSNA, 2011

Motivations for entry into sex work and HIV risk among mobile female sex workers in India.

PubMed

Saggurti, Niranjan; Verma, Ravi K; Halli, Shiva S; Swain, Suvakanta N; Singh, Rajendra; Modugu, Hanimi Reddy; Ramarao, Saumya; Mahapatra, Bidhubhusan; Jain, Anrudh K

2011-09-01

This paper assesses the reasons for entry into sex work and its association with HIV risk behaviours among mobile female sex workers (FSWs) in India. Data were collected from a cross-sectional survey conducted in 22 districts across four high HIV prevalence states in India during 2007-2008. Analyses were limited to 5498 eligible mobile FSWs. The reasons given by FSWs for entering sex work and associations with socio-demographic characteristics were assessed. Reported reasons for entering sex work include poor or deprived economic conditions; negative social circumstances in life; own choice; force by an external person; and family tradition. The results from multivariate analyses indicate that those FSWs who entered sex work due to poor economic conditions or negative social circumstances in life or force demonstrated elevated levels of current inconsistent condom use as well as in the past in comparison with those FSWs who reported entering sex work by choice or family tradition. This finding indicates the need for a careful assessment of the pre-entry contexts among HIV prevention interventions since these factors may continue to hinder the effectiveness of efforts to reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS in India and elsewhere.

Chaos, Poverty, and Parenting: Predictors of Early Language Development

PubMed Central

Vernon-Feagans, Lynne; Garrett-Peters, Patricia; Willoughby, Mike; Mills-Koonce, Roger

2011-01-01

Studies have shown that distal family risk factors like poverty and maternal education are strongly related to children's early language development. Yet, few studies have examined these risk factors in combination with more proximal day-to-day experiences of children that might be critical to understanding variation in early language. Young children's exposure to a chronically chaotic household may be one critical experience that is related to poorer language, beyond the contribution of SES and other demographic variables. In addition, it is not clear whether parenting might mediate the relationship between chaos and language. The purpose of this study was to understand how multiple indicators of chaos over children's first three years of life, in a representative sample of children living in low wealth rural communities, were related to child expressive and receptive language at 36 months. Factor analysis of 10 chaos indicators over five time periods suggested two factors that were named household disorganization and instability. Results suggested that after accounting for thirteen covariates like maternal education and poverty, one of two chaos composites (household disorganization) accounted for significant variance in receptive and expressive language. Parenting partially mediated this relationship although household disorganization continued to account for unique variance in predicting early language. PMID:23049162

The knowledge, attitudes and practices of wintersun vacationers to the Gambia toward prevention of malaria: is it really that bad?

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Each year clusters of imported malaria cases are observed in Dutch wintersun vacationers returning from The Gambia. To gain more insight in the travel health preparation and awareness of these travellers, the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of this travel group was studied by analysing the data of the Continuous Dutch Schiphol Airport Survey. Methods In the years 2002 to 2009 a questionnaire-based survey was conducted at the Dutch Schiphol Airport with the aim to study the KAP, i.e. accuracy of risk perception (“knowledge”), intended risk-avoiding behaviour (“attitude”) and use of personal protective measures and malaria chemoprophylaxis (“practice”) toward prevention malaria in travellers to The Gambia. Travellers to other high-risk destinations served as controls. Results The KAP of travellers to The Gambia toward prevention of malaria was significantly better than that observed in other travellers. Trend analyses indicated that attitude improved over time in both groups but knowledge did not change. Only in travellers to high-risk countries other than The Gambia significant increases in protection rates were observed over time. Conclusions The KAP of travellers to The Gambia toward prevention of malaria was better than that observed in travellers to destinations other than The Gambia. Trend analyses revealed a significant improvement of intended risk avoiding behaviour but not in protection rates or risk perception. PMID:24581328

Subclinical Early Post-Traumatic Seizures Detected by Continuous EEG Monitoring in a Consecutive Pediatric Cohort

PubMed Central

Arndt, Daniel H; Lerner, Jason T; Matsumoto, Joyce H; Madikians, Andranik; Yudovin, Sue; Valino, Heather; McArthur, David L; Wu, Joyce Y; Leung, Michelle; Buxley, Farzad; Szeliga, Conrad; Van Hirtum-Das, Michele; Sankar, Raman; Brooks-Kayal, Amy; Giza, Christopher C

2015-01-01

Summary Purpose Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in children and early post-traumatic seizures (EPTS) are a contributing factor to ongoing acute damage. Continuous video EEG monitoring (cEEG) was utilized to assess the burden of clinical and electrographic EPTS. Methods Eighty-seven consecutive, unselected (mild – severe), acute TBI patients requiring pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission at 2 academic centers were prospectively monitored with cEEG per established clinical TBI protocols. Clinical and subclinical seizures and status epilepticus (SE, clinical and subclinical) were assessed for their relation to clinical risk factors and short-term outcome measures. Key findings Of all patients, 42.5% (37/87) had seizures. Younger age (p=0.002) and mechanism (abusive head trauma - AHT, p<0.001) were significant risk factors. Subclinical seizures occurred in 16.1% (14/87), 6 of whom had only subclinical seizures. Risk factors for subclinical seizures included: younger age (p<0.001), AHT (p<0.001) and intraaxial bleed (p<0.001). Status Epilepticus (SE) occurred in 18.4% (16/87) with risk factors including: younger age (p<0.001), AHT (p<0.001), and intraaxial bleed (p=0.002). Subclinical SE was detected in 13.8% (12/87) with significant risk factors including: younger age (p<0.001), AHT (p=0.001), and intraaxial bleed (p=0.004). Subclinical seizures were associated with lower discharge KOSCHI score (p=0.002). SE and subclinical SE were associated with increased hospital length of stay (p=0.017 and p=0.041 respectively) and lower hospital discharge KOSCHI (p=0.007 and p=0.040 respectively). Significance cEEG monitoring significantly improves detection of seizures/SE and is the only way to detect subclinical seizures/SE. cEEG may be indicated after pediatric TBI, particularly in younger children, AHT cases, and those with intraaxial blood on CT. PMID:24032982

Suicide Risk at Young Adulthood: Continuities and Discontinuities From Adolescence

PubMed Central

Hooven, Carole; Snedker, Karen A.; Thompson, Elaine Adams

2011-01-01

Young adult suicide is an important social problem, yet little is known about how risk for young adult suicide develops from earlier life stages. In this study the authors report on 759 young adults who were potential high school dropouts as youth. At both adolescence and young adulthood, measures of suicide risk status and related suicide risk factors are collected. With a two-by-two classification on the basis of suicide risk status at both adolescence and young adulthood, the authors distinguish four mutually exclusive groups reflecting suicide risk at two life stages. Using ANOVA and logistic regression, both adolescent and young adult suicide risk factors are identified, with evidence of similarity between risk factors at adolescence and at young adulthood, for both individual-level and social-context factors. There is also support for both continuity and discontinuity of adolescent suicide risk. Implications for social policy are discussed. PMID:23129876

Application impact analysis: a risk-based approach to business continuity and disaster recovery.

PubMed

Epstein, Beth; Khan, Dawn Christine

2014-01-01

There are many possible disruptions that can occur in business. Overlooking or under planning for Business Continuity requires time, understanding and careful planning. Business Continuity Management is far more than producing a document and declaring business continuity success. What is the recipe for businesses to achieve continuity management success? Application Impact Analysis is a method for understanding the unique Business Attributes. This AIA Cycle involves a risk based approach to understanding the business priority and considering business aspects such as Financial, Operational, Service Structure, Contractual Legal, and Brand. The output of this analysis provides a construct for viewing data, evaluating impact, and delivering results, for an approved valuation of Recovery Time Objectives (RTO).

Cannabis use in young people: the risk for schizophrenia.

PubMed

Casadio, Paola; Fernandes, Cathy; Murray, Robin M; Di Forti, Marta

2011-08-01

Cannabis is one of the most commonly used illicit drugs, and despite the widely held belief that it is a safe drug, its long-term use has potentially harmful consequences. To date, the research on the impact of its use has largely been epidemiological in nature and has consistently found that cannabis use is associated with schizophrenia outcomes later in life, even after controlling for several confounding factors. While the majority of users can continue their use without adverse effects, it is clear from studies of psychosis that some individuals are more vulnerable to its effects than others. In addiction, evidence from both epidemiological and animal studies indicates that cannabis use during adolescence carries particular risk. Further studies are warranted given the increase in the concentration of the main active ingredient (Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol) in street preparations of cannabis and a decreasing age of first-time exposure to cannabis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Italian intersocietary consensus document on aspirin therapy in primary cardiovascular prevention].

PubMed

Volpe, Massimo; Abrignani, Maurizio Giuseppe; Borghi, Claudio; Coccheri, Sergio; Gresele, Paolo; Patti, Giuseppe; Trimarco, Bruno; De Caterina, Raffaele

2014-01-01

The indications for the use of aspirin in primary cardiovascular prevention continue to be a source of intense debate, with major international guidelines providing conflicting advices. This document, written by delegates of the main Italian scientific societies dealing with cardiovascular prevention and modeled on a similar document by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Thrombosis, reviews the evidence in favor and against the use of aspirin therapy in primary prevention based on data cumulated so far, including recent data linking aspirin with cancer protection. While awaiting the results of several ongoing studies, this document argues for a pragmatic approach to the use of low-dose aspirin in primary cardiovascular prevention, and suggests its use in patients at high cardiovascular risk, defined as ≥2 major cardiovascular events (death, myocardial infarction, or stroke) projected per 100 person-years, who are not at increased risk of bleeding.

Improving risk-stratification of Diabetes complications using temporal data mining.

PubMed

Sacchi, Lucia; Dagliati, Arianna; Segagni, Daniele; Leporati, Paola; Chiovato, Luca; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2015-01-01

To understand which factor trigger worsened disease control is a crucial step in Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) patient management. The MOSAIC project, funded by the European Commission under the FP7 program, has been designed to integrate heterogeneous data sources and provide decision support in chronic T2D management through patients' continuous stratification. In this work we show how temporal data mining can be fruitfully exploited to improve risk stratification. In particular, we exploit administrative data on drug purchases to divide patients in meaningful groups. The detection of drug consumption patterns allows stratifying the population on the basis of subjects' purchasing attitude. Merging these findings with clinical values indicates the relevance of the applied methods while showing significant differences in the identified groups. This extensive approach emphasized the exploitation of administrative data to identify patterns able to explain clinical conditions.

Do family dinners reduce the risk for early adolescent substance use? A propensity score analysis.

PubMed

Hoffmann, John P; Warnick, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

The risks of early adolescent substance use on health and well-being are well documented. In recent years, several experts have claimed that a simple preventive measure for these behaviors is for families to share evening meals. In this study, we use data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Study of Youth (n = 5,419) to estimate propensity score models designed to match on a set of covariates and predict early adolescent substance use frequency and initiation. The results indicate that family dinners are not generally associated with alcohol or cigarette use or with drug use initiation. However, a continuous measure of family dinners is modestly associated with marijuana frequency, thus suggesting a potential causal impact. These results show that family dinners may help prevent one form of substance use in the short term but do not generally affect substance use initiation or alcohol and cigarette use.

A review of new drugs and indications in 2002: financial speculation or better patent care?

PubMed

2003-04-01

(1) Once again, our review of drug developments in France in 2002 shows that, in an unfettered market drugs that offer patients no concrete advantages are announced with the biggest fanfare, while drugs that represent real therapeutic advance risk going unnoticed. (2) Regulatory agencies continue to fail in their duty to provide health professionals and patients with the information they need to cut through the hype and to use (correctly) the drugs with the best risk-benefit ratios. (3) The draft modifications to the European Regulation on medicinal products published in 2002 would have made the situation even worse (and may still do so). Fortunately, the European Parliament reined in the Commission's eagerness to please the drugs industry. But all of us who want to see a European drugs policy that serves patients' best interests rather than stockholders' portfolios must remain vigilant in 2003.

Seroprevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi in blood donors at the National Blood Transfusion Services--Guyana.

PubMed

Bwititi, P T; Browne, J

2012-09-01

Blood transfusion is an important transmission route of Trypanosoma cruzi (T cruzi), a major parasitic infection in Central and South America. The limited treatment options are most effective in acute Chagas' infection. At present, there is no current data on the prevalence of T cruzi in the blood donor population of Guyana. This information is necessary to protect the supply of the blood donation programme. This study sought to determine the prevalence of T cruzi in the blood supply at the National Blood Transfusion Services of Guyana with the hope of providing knowledge to the on-going surveillance for Chagas' disease worldwide and therefore address the risk of its spread by blood transfusion. Two commercialized ELISAs utilizing crude or recombinant T cruzi antigens were used to study 2000 blood samples voluntarily donated for the purpose of altruistic or family replacement donation retrospectively. The results showed that approximately 1 in 286 donations tested positive for antibodies to T cruzi. These results indicate that T cruzi continues to be a risk in Guyana and there is a need to continue screening donated blood. Trypanosoma cruzi is a life-long infection and infected persons may be asymptomatic chronic carriers of the disease. Education, housing improvement, and controlled use of insecticides should be introduced to contain Chagas' disease.

Comparative Effectiveness of Risk-Stratified Care Management in Reducing Readmissions in Medicaid Adults With Chronic Disease.

PubMed

Hewner, Sharon; Wu, Yow-Wu Bill; Castner, Jessica

2016-01-01

Hospitalized adult Medicaid recipients with chronic disease are at risk for rehospitalization within 90 days of discharge, but most research has focused on the Medicare population. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of population-based care management intensity on inpatient readmissions in Medicaid adults with pre-existing chronic disease. Retrospective analyses of 2,868 index hospital admissions from 2012 New York State Medicaid Data Warehouse claims compared 90-day post-discharge utilization in populations with and without transitional care management interventions. High intensity managed care organization interventions were associated with higher outpatient and lower emergency department post-discharge utilization than low intensity fee-for-service management. However, readmission rates were higher for the managed care cases. Shorter time to readmission was associated with managed care, diagnoses that include heart and kidney failure, shorter length of stay for index hospitalization, and male sex; with no relationship to age. This unexpected result flags the need to re-evaluate readmission as a quality indicator in the complex Medicaid population. Quality improvement efforts should focus on care continuity during transitions and consider population-specific factors that influence readmission. Optimum post-discharge utilization in the Medicaid population requires a balance between outpatient, emergency and inpatient services to improve access and continuity.

SmartFABER: Recognizing fine-grained abnormal behaviors for early detection of mild cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Riboni, Daniele; Bettini, Claudio; Civitarese, Gabriele; Janjua, Zaffar Haider; Helaoui, Rim

2016-02-01

In an ageing world population more citizens are at risk of cognitive impairment, with negative consequences on their ability of independent living, quality of life and sustainability of healthcare systems. Cognitive neuroscience researchers have identified behavioral anomalies that are significant indicators of cognitive decline. A general goal is the design of innovative methods and tools for continuously monitoring the functional abilities of the seniors at risk and reporting the behavioral anomalies to the clinicians. SmartFABER is a pervasive system targeting this objective. A non-intrusive sensor network continuously acquires data about the interaction of the senior with the home environment during daily activities. A novel hybrid statistical and knowledge-based technique is used to analyses this data and detect the behavioral anomalies, whose history is presented through a dashboard to the clinicians. Differently from related works, SmartFABER can detect abnormal behaviors at a fine-grained level. We have fully implemented the system and evaluated it using real datasets, partly generated by performing activities in a smart home laboratory, and partly acquired during several months of monitoring of the instrumented home of a senior diagnosed with MCI. Experimental results, including comparisons with other activity recognition techniques, show the effectiveness of SmartFABER in terms of recognition rates. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A food industry perspective on folic acid fortification.

PubMed

Schaller, D R; Olson, B H

1996-03-01

The U.S. Public Health Service (PHS) has recommended that all women of childbearing years, capable of becoming pregnant, consume 400 micrograms folic acid/d to reduce their risk of having a neural tube defect (NTD)-affected pregnancy. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration subsequently proposed a folate fortification scheme for cereal grains, which also allowed the continued fortification of breakfast cereals at 0.1 mg per serving. To determine the contribution of ready-to-eat breakfast cereals (RTEC) to folate intakes in women of childbearing years, data were analyzed from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's 1989-1991 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals and 1987-1988 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey. Women consuming RTEC have higher intakes of folate than women reporting no RTEC consumption. Recent reports indicate that most women are unaware of the PHS recommendation to consume more folate, and many health professionals are not advising women of the need to consume adequate folate during childbearing years. The food industry has been an effective communicator of health and nutrition messages and should be encouraged to raise awareness about the role of folate in NTDs. Better analysis also needs to be conducted to identify women at risk of low folate intakes, so that targeted education efforts can be made and appropriate vehicles identified for delivering folate to these women.

A comparison of prevalence estimates for selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2008.

PubMed

Li, Chaoyang; Balluz, Lina S; Ford, Earl S; Okoro, Catherine A; Zhao, Guixiang; Pierannunzi, Carol

2012-06-01

To compare the prevalence estimates of selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions among three national health surveys in the United States. Data from adults aged 18 years or older who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=807,524), the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=44,262), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) during 2007 and 2008 (n=5871) were analyzed. The prevalence estimates of current smoking, obesity, hypertension, and no health insurance were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.7% to 3.9% (relative differences: 2.3% to 20.2%). The prevalence estimate of poor or fair health from BRFSS was similar to that from NHANES, but higher than that from NHIS. The prevalence estimates of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.0% to 0.8% (relative differences: 0.2% to 17.1%). While the BRFSS continues to provide invaluable health information at state and local level, it is reassuring to observe consistency in the prevalence estimates of key health indicators of similar caliber between BRFSS and other national surveys. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Emerging Applications of Stem Cell and Regenerative Medicine to Sports Injuries

PubMed Central

Ajibade, David A.; Vance, Danica D.; Hare, Joshua M.; Kaplan, Lee D.; Lesniak, Bryson P.

2014-01-01

Background: The treatment of sports-related musculoskeletal injuries with stem cells has become more publicized because of recent reports of high-profile athletes undergoing stem cell procedures. There has been increased interest in defining the parameters of safety and efficacy and the indications for potential use of stem cells in clinical practice. Purpose: To review the role of regenerative medicine in the treatment of sports-related injuries. Study Design: Review. Method: Relevant studies were identified through a PubMed search combining the terms stem cells and cartilage, ligament, tendon, muscle, and bone from January 2000 to August 2013. Studies and works cited in these studies were also reviewed. Results: Treatment of sports-related injuries with stem cells shows potential for clinical efficacy from the data available from basic science and animal studies. Conclusion: Cell-based therapies and regenerative medicine offer safe and potentially efficacious treatment for sports-related musculoskeletal injuries. Basic science and preclinical studies that support the possibility of enhanced recovery from sports injuries using cell-based therapies are accumulating; however, more clinical evidence is necessary to define the indications and parameters for their use. Accordingly, exposing patients to cell-based therapies could confer an unacceptable risk profile with minimal or no benefit. Continued clinical testing with animal models and clinical trials is necessary to determine the relative risks and benefits as well as the indications and methodology of treatment. PMID:26535296

ATTITUDES ABOUT AND HIV RISK RELATED TO THE “MOST COMMON PLACE” MSM MEET THEIR SEX PARTNERS: COMPARING MEN FROM BATHHOUSES, BARS/CLUBS, AND CRAIGSLIST.ORG

PubMed Central

Grov, Christian; Crow, Thomas

2018-01-01

This study examined attitudes toward the most common place where men who have sex with men (MSM) met their recent male sex partners. In 2009–2010, MSM were surveyed in bars/clubs, bathhouses, and on Craigslist.org. We found strong but differential overlap between venue of recruitment and participants’ most common place: 81% of men from Craigslist indicated their most common place was the Internet, 65% of men from bathhouses indicated their most common place was bathhouses, and 47% of men from bars/clubs indicated their most common place was bars/clubs. In general, interest in seeing more information on drugs/alcohol and HIV and interacting with a health outreach worker in participants’ most common place ranged from “agree” to “strongly agree.” However, men whose most common place was bars/clubs rated these items lowest on average. Rates of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) were high (43%), thus targeted efforts in bars/clubs, bathhouses, and on the Internet may be ideal venues for reaching high-risk MSM. Although most common place was unrelated to UAI, it was related to factors that contextualize men’s encounters (e.g., attitudes toward HIV status disclosure, and perceptions about barebacking, anonymous sex, and alcohol use). Outreach providers should consider these contextualizing aspects as they continue to retool their efforts. PMID:22468972

[Overview of indicators in the context of environment and health].

PubMed

Tobollik, Myriam; Kabel, Claudia; Mekel, Odile; Hornberg, Claudia; Plaß, Dietrich

2018-06-01

Evidence-based political measures need reliable information about the health status of a population and the determinants affecting health. Here, environment and health indicators can provide helpful additional insights. This article provides an overview of existing indicators in the field of environment and health. There are single indicators and indicator sets describing solely the environment or health as well as some indicators integrating both aspects. The indicator sets cover classical epidemiological indicators but also summary measures of population health, which combine mortality and morbidity as well as simple descriptions of the exposure towards environmental risks. The indicator sets mostly cover water and air quality related aspects. For some of the indicators their influence on health is also presented. Furthermore, environment related health indicators are part of sustainability indicator sets. There are indicators on the international, European, national, and municipal level. All indicator sets aim to support policy-making by advising on measures and setting priorities in the area of environment and health protection. However not all indicators reflect the effect of the environment on health adequately. Therefore, further development of the existing indicators is necessary to reflect current progress (e. g. political needs) and to include new scientific evidence in the field of environment and health. A continuous provision, review, and interpretation of meaningful indicators is required to identify trends and to react to these in order to protect the environment and health. This is necessary to adequately pursue the precautionary principle.

A pragmatic randomized trial of a polypill-based strategy to improve use of indicated preventive treatments in people at high cardiovascular disease risk.

PubMed

Patel, Anushka; Cass, Alan; Peiris, David; Usherwood, Tim; Brown, Alex; Jan, Stephen; Neal, Bruce; Hillis, Graham S; Rafter, Natasha; Tonkin, Andrew; Webster, Ruth; Billot, Laurent; Bompoint, Severine; Burch, Carol; Burke, Hugh; Hayman, Noel; Molanus, Barbara; Reid, Christopher M; Shiel, Louise; Togni, Samantha; Rodgers, Anthony

2015-07-01

Most individuals at high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk worldwide do not receive any or optimal preventive drugs. We aimed to determine whether fixed dose combinations of generic drugs ('polypills') would promote use of such medications. We conducted a randomized, open-label trial involving 623 participants from Australian general practices. Participants had established CVD or an estimated five-year CVD risk of ≥15%, with indications for antiplatelet, statin and ≥2 blood pressure lowering drugs ('combination treatment'). Participants randomized to the 'polypill-based strategy' received a polypill containing aspirin 75 mg, simvastatin 40 mg, lisinopril 10 mg and either atenolol 50 mg or hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg. Participants randomized to 'usual care' continued with separate medications and doses as prescribed by their doctor. Primary outcomes were self-reported combination treatment use, systolic blood pressure and total cholesterol. After a median of 18 months, the polypill-based strategy was associated with greater use of combination treatment (70% vs. 47%; relative risk 1.49, (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30 to 1.72) p < 0.0001; number needed to treat = 4.4 (3.3 to 6.6)) without differences in systolic blood pressure (-1.5 mmHg (95% CI -4.0 to 1.0) p = 0.24) or total cholesterol (0.08 mmol/l (95% CI -0.06 to 0.22) p = 0.26). At study end, 17% and 67% of participants in polypill and usual care groups, respectively, were taking atorvastatin or rosuvastatin. Provision of a polypill improved self-reported use of indicated preventive treatments. The lack of differences in blood pressure and cholesterol may reflect limited study power, although for cholesterol, improved statin use in the polypill group counter-balanced use of more potent statins with usual care. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Differential Risk of Hypertension Among Lean and Nonlean Rural Subjects in Relation to Decadal Changes in Anthropometry.

PubMed

Deshpande-Joshi, Sayali S; Rao, Shobha

2018-02-09

Assessing risk of hypertension in relation to decadal changes in anthropometry among cohort of young rural Indian men. Subjects (n = 140) were measured in 2005 and 2015 for blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), body fat (BF), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and additionally for visceral fat (VF) at follow-up. Decadal changes showed significant (p < 0.001) increase in mean anthropometric measures and in prevalence of overall obesity (BMI ≥25 kg/m 2 ) from 3.6% to 37.1%; adiposity (BF ≥25%) from 5.1% to 40.9%; and central obesity (WHR ≥0.9) from 0.7% to 24.3%. Prevalence of hypertension increased (20.7% to 27.1%) but was not statistically significant. VF correlated significantly (p < 0.001) with decadal changes (Δ) in BMI, BF, WC, and WHR, and the correlations were stronger (r = 0.90, 0.78, 0.84, and 0.56, respectively) for lean (baseline BMI < median) subjects than nonlean (baseline BMI ≥median) subjects (r = 0.68, 0.40, 0.61, and 0.43, respectively). Risk of hypertension was significant (odds ratio [OR] = 11.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.8-42.8) for subjects with higher ΔBMI (≥4.7 kg/m 2 ) compared with those with lower ΔBMI (<4.7 kg/m 2 ) among lean but was not significant among nonlean subjects. This was also true for change in other adiposity indicators, indicating greater vulnerability of lean subjects. Further, among lean subjects, ORs reduced considerably after adjusting for VF, whereas among nonlean subjects ORs continued to remain nonsignificant but showing independent significance for VF. For similar level of change in adiposity indicators, lean subjects were at greater risk of hypertension than nonlean subjects, probably due to higher VF deposition.

Precursors of developmental dyslexia: an overview of the longitudinal Dutch Dyslexia Programme study.

PubMed

van der Leij, Aryan; van Bergen, Elsje; van Zuijen, Titia; de Jong, Peter; Maurits, Natasha; Maassen, Ben

2013-11-01

Converging evidence suggests that developmental dyslexia is a neurobiological disorder, characterized by deficits in the auditory, visual, and linguistic domains. In the longitudinal project of the Dutch Dyslexia Programme, 180 children with a familial risk of dyslexia (FR) and a comparison group of 120 children without FR (noFR) were followed from the age of 2 months up to 9 years. Children were assessed on (1) auditory, speech, and visual event-related potentials every half year between 2 and 41 months; (2) expressive and receptive language, motor development, behaviour problems, and home-literacy environment by questionnaires at the age of 2 and 3; (3) speech-language and cognitive development from 47 months onwards; and (4) preliteracy and subskills of reading, and reading development during kindergarten and Grades 2 and 3. With regard to precursors of reading disability, first analyses showed specific differences between FR and noFR children in neurophysiological, cognitive, and early language measures. Once reading tests administered from age 7 to 9 years were available, the children were divided into three groups: FR children with and without dyslexia, and controls. Analyses of the differences between reading groups yielded distinct profiles and developmental trajectories. On early speech and visual processing, and several cognitive measures, performance of the non-dyslexic FR group differed from the dyslexic FR group and controls, indicating continuity of the influence of familial risk. Parental reading and rapid naming skills appeared to indicate their offspring's degree of familial risk. Furthermore, on rapid naming and nonverbal IQ, the non-dyslexic FR group performed similarly to the controls, suggesting protective factors. There are indications of differences between the FR and control groups, irrespective of reading outcome. These results contribute to the distinction between the deficits correlated to dyslexia as a manifest reading disorder and deficits correlated to familial risk only. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accounting for clinical action reduces estimates of gender disparities in lipid management for diabetic veterans.

PubMed

Vimalananda, Varsha G; Miller, Donald R; Hofer, Timothy P; Holleman, Robert G; Klamerus, Mandi L; Kerr, Eve A

2013-07-01

Women with diabetes have higher low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels than men, resulting in apparent disparities between genders on quality indicators tied to LDL thresholds. To investigate whether gender disparities persist when accounting for clinical action with statins or cardiovascular risk. Retrospective cohort study. Veterans Health Administration patients (21,780 women and 646,429 men) aged 50-75 with diabetes. Threshold measure: LDL < 100 mg/dL; clinical action measure: LDL < 100 mg/dL; or LDL ≥ 100 mg/dL and the patient was prescribed a moderate or high-dose statin at the time of the test; or LDL ≥ 100 mg/dL and the patient received other appropriate clinical action within 90 days; adherence: continuous multiple interval measure of gaps in dispensed medication (CMG). Women were much less likely to have LDL < 100 mg/dL than were men (55 % vs. 68 %). This disparity narrowed from 13 % to 6 % for passing the clinical action measure (79 % vs. 85 %). These gender differences persisted among those with ischemic heart disease (IHD). Women had a lower odds of passing the clinical action measure (odds ratio 0.68, 95 % confidence interval 0.66-0.71). Among those with IHD, the gender gap increased with age. Differences in pass rates were explained by women's higher LDL levels, but not by their slightly worse adherence (3 % higher CMG). Women and men veterans receive more similar quality of care for lipids in diabetes than previously indicated. Less reassuringly, the remaining gender differences appear to be as common in women at high cardiovascular risk as in those at low risk. Rather than focus on simply improving LDL levels in all women with diabetes, future efforts should ensure that patients with high cardiovascular risk are appropriately treated with statins when clinically indicated, feasible, and concordant with patient preferences.

Continuity of cannabis use and violent offending over the life course.

PubMed

Schoeler, T; Theobald, D; Pingault, J-B; Farrington, D P; Jennings, W G; Piquero, A R; Coid, J W; Bhattacharyya, S

2016-06-01

Although the association between cannabis use and violence has been reported in the literature, the precise nature of this relationship, especially the directionality of the association, is unclear. Young males from the Cambridge Study of Delinquent Development (n = 411) were followed up between the ages of 8 and 56 years to prospectively investigate the association between cannabis use and violence. A multi-wave (eight assessments, T1-T8) follow-up design was employed that allowed temporal sequencing of the variables of interest and the analysis of violent outcome measures obtained from two sources: (i) criminal records (violent conviction); and (ii) self-reports. A combination of analytic approaches allowing inferences as to the directionality of associations was employed, including multivariate logistic regression analysis, fixed-effects analysis and cross-lagged modelling. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that compared with never-users, continued exposure to cannabis (use at age 18, 32 and 48 years) was associated with a higher risk of subsequent violent behaviour, as indexed by convictions [odds ratio (OR) 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.19-23.59] or self-reports (OR 8.9, 95% CI 2.37-46.21). This effect persisted after controlling for other putative risk factors for violence. In predicting violence, fixed-effects analysis and cross-lagged modelling further indicated that this effect could not be explained by other unobserved time-invariant factors. Furthermore, these analyses uncovered a bi-directional relationship between cannabis use and violence. Together, these results provide strong indication that cannabis use predicts subsequent violent offending, suggesting a possible causal effect, and provide empirical evidence that may have implications for public policy.

Nine-Year Core Study Data for Sientra's FDA-Approved Round and Shaped Implants with High-Strength Cohesive Silicone Gel.

PubMed

Stevens, W Grant; Calobrace, M Bradley; Harrington, Jennifer; Alizadeh, Kaveh; Zeidler, Kamakshi R; d'Incelli, Rosalyn C

2016-04-01

Since approval in March 2012, data on Sientra's (Santa Barbara, CA) silicone gel implants have been updated and published regularly to provide immediate visibility to the continued safety and performance of these devices. The 9 year follow-up data support the previously published data confirming the ongoing safety and efficacy of Sientra silicone gel breast implants. The authors provide updated 9 year study data for Sientra's round and shaped silicone gel breast implants. The Core Study is an ongoing 10 year study that enrolled 1788 patients with 3506 Sientra implants across four indications (primary augmentation, revision-augmentation, primary reconstruction, and revision-reconstruction). For the safety analysis, Kaplan-Meier risk rates were calculated to evaluate postoperative complications, including all breast implant-related adverse effects. For the effectiveness analyses, results were presented through 8 years as patient satisfaction scores were assessed at even years. Through 9 years, the overall risk of capsular contracture was 12.6%. Smooth devices (16.6%, 95% CI, 14.2%, 19.5%) had a statistically significantly higher rate of capsular contracture compared to textured devices (8.0%, 95% CI, 6.2%, 10.4%). Out of the 610 reoperations in 477 patients, over half of all reoperations were due to cosmetic reasons (n = 315; 51.6%). Patient satisfaction remains high through 8 years, with 90% of primary augmentation patients indicating their breast implants look natural and feel soft. The 9-year follow-up data from the ongoing Core Study of the Sientra portfolio of HSC and HSC+ silicone gel breast implants reaffirm the very strong safety profile as well as continued patient satisfaction. 2 Therapeutic. © 2016 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Understanding the legal trade of cattle and camels and the derived risk of Rift Valley Fever introduction into and transmission within Egypt

PubMed Central

Chevalier, Veronique; Busquets, Núria; Calistri, Paolo; Casal, Jordi; Attia, Mohamed; Elbassal, Rehab; Hosni, Heba; Farrag, Hatem; Hassan, Noura; Tawfik, Rasha; Abd Elkader, Sohair; Bayomy, Shahin

2018-01-01

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne zoonosis, which may cause significant losses for the livestock sector and have serious public health implications. Egypt has been repeatedly affected by RVF epidemics, mainly associated to the importation of animals from sub-Saharan countries, where the disease is endemic. The objective of our study was the improvement of the surveillance and control strategies implemented in Egypt. In order to do that, first we evaluated the legal trade of live animals into and within Egypt. Then, we assessed the risk of Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) transmission within the country using a multi-criteria evaluation approach. Finally, we combined the animal trade and the risk of RVFV transmission data to identify those areas and periods in which the introduction of RVFV is more likely. Our results indicate that the main risk of RVFV introduction is posed by the continuous flow of large number of camels coming from Sudan. The risk of RVFV transmission by vectors is restricted to the areas surrounding the Nile river, and does not vary significantly throughout the year. Imported camels are taken to quarantines, where the risk of RVFV transmission by vectors is generally low. Then, they are taken to animal markets or slaughterhouses, many located in populated areas, where the risk of RVFV transmission to animals or humans is much higher. The measures currently implemented (quarantines, vaccination or testing) seem to have a limited effect in reducing the risk of RVFV introduction, and therefore other (risk-based) surveillance strategies are proposed. PMID:29351273

Mortality predictors in a 60-year follow-up of adolescent males: exploring delinquency, socioeconomic status, IQ, high-school drop-out status, and personality.

PubMed

Trumbetta, Susan L; Seltzer, Benjamin K; Gottesman, Irving I; McIntyre, Kathleen M

2010-01-01

To examine whether socioeconomic status (SES), high school (HS) completion, IQ, and personality traits that predict delinquency in adolescence also could explain men's delinquency-related (Dq-r) mortality risk across the life span. Through a 60-year Social Security Death Index (SSDI) follow-up of 1812 men from Hathaway's adolescent normative Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) sample, we examined mortality risk at various ages and at various levels of prior delinquency severity. We examined SES (using family rent level), HS completion, IQ, and MMPI indicators simultaneously as mortality predictors and tested for SES (rent level) interactions with IQ and personality. We ascertained 418 decedents. Dq-r mortality peaked between ages 45 years to 64 years and continued through age 75 years, with high delinquency severity showing earlier and higher mortality risk. IQ and rent level failed to explain Dq-r mortality. HS completion robustly conferred mortality protection through ages 55 years and 75 years, explained IQ and rent level-related risk, but did not fully explain Dq-r risk. Dq-r MMPI scales, Psychopathic Deviate, and Social Introversion, respectively, predicted risk for and protection from mortality by age 75 years, explaining mortality risk otherwise attributable to delinquency. Wiggins' scales also explained Dq-r mortality risk, as Authority Conflict conferred risk for and Social Maladjustment and Hypomania conferred protection from mortality by age 75 years. HS completion robustly predicts mortality by ages 55 years and 75 years. Dq-r personality traits predict mortality by age 75 years, accounting, in part, for Dq-r mortality.

Nocturnal continuous glucose monitoring: accuracy and reliability of hypoglycemia detection in patients with type 1 diabetes at high risk of severe hypoglycemia.

PubMed

Bay, Christiane; Kristensen, Peter Lommer; Pedersen-Bjergaard, Ulrik; Tarnow, Lise; Thorsteinsson, Birger

2013-05-01

A reliable method to detect biochemical nocturnal hypoglycemia is highly needed, especially in patients with recurrent severe hypoglycemia. We evaluated reliability of nocturnal continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) in patients with type 1 diabetes at high risk of severe hypoglycemia. Seventy-two type 1 diabetes patients with recurrent severe hypoglycemia (two or more events within the last year) participated for 4 nights in blinded CGM recordings (Guardian(®) REAL-Time CGMS and Sof-Sensor(®); Medtronic MiniMed, Northridge, CA). Blood was drawn hourly from 23:00 to 07:00 h for plasma glucose (PG) measurements (gold standard). Valid data were obtained in 217 nights. The sensitivity of CGM was 65% (95% confidence interval, 53-77%) below 4 mmol/L, 40% (24-56%) below 3 mmol/L, and 17% (0-47%) below 2.2 mmol/L. PG and CGM readings correlated in the total measurement range (Spearman's ρ=0.82; P<0.001). In the normo- and hyperglycemic ranges CGM underestimated PG by 1.1 mmol/L (0.9-1.2 mmol/L) (P<0.001); in contrast, in the hypoglycemic range (PG<4 mmol/L) CGM overestimated PG levels by 1.0 mmol/L (P<0.001). The mean absolute relative differences in the hypo- (≤3.9 mmol/L), normo- (4-9.9 mmol/L), and hyperglycemic (≥10 mmol/L) ranges were 45% (37-53%), 23% (22-25%), and 20% (19-21%), respectively. Continuous glucose error grid analysis indicated a clinical accuracy of 56%, 99%, and 93% in the hypo-, normo-, and hyperglycemic ranges, respectively. The accuracy in the hypoglycemic range of nocturnal CGM data using Sof-Sensor is suboptimal in type 1 diabetes patients at high risk of severe hypoglycemia. To ensure clinical useful sensitivity in detection of nocturnal hypoglycemic episodes, an alarm threshold should not be lower than 4 mmol/L.

Measuring mining safety with injury statistics: lost workdays as indicators of risk.

PubMed

Coleman, Patrick J; Kerkering, John C

2007-01-01

Mining in the United States remains one of the most hazardous industries, despite significant reductions in fatal injury rates over the last century. Coal mine fatality rates, for example, have dropped almost a thousand-fold since their peak in 1908. While incidence rates are very important indicators, lost worktime measures offer an alternative metric for evaluating job safety and health performance. The first objective of this study examined the distributions and summary statistics of all injuries reported to the Mine Safety and Health Administration from 1983 through 2004. Over the period studied (1983-2004), there were 31,515,368 lost workdays associated with mining injuries, for an equivalent of 5,700 person-years lost annually. The second objective addressed the problem of comparing safety program performance in mines for situations where denominator data were lacking. By examining the consequences of injuries, comparisons can be made between disparate operations without the need for denominators. Total risk in the form of lost workday sums can help to distinguish between lower- and higher-risk operations or time periods. Our method was to use a beta distribution to model the losses and to compare underground coal mining to underground metal/nonmetal mining from 2000 to 2004. Our results showed the probability of an injury having 10 or more lost workdays was 0.52 for coal mine cases versus 0.35 for metal/nonmetal mine cases. In addition, a comparison of injuries involving continuous mining machines over 2001-2002 versus 2003-2004 showed that the ratio of average losses in the later period to those in the earlier period was approximately 1.08, suggesting increasing risks for such operations. This denominator-free safety measure will help the mining industry more effectively identify higher-risk operations and more realistically evaluate their safety improvement programs. Attention to a variety of metrics concerning the performance of a job safety and health program will enhance industry's ability to manage these programs and reduce risk.

Ecological, Social and Biological Risk Factors for Continued Trypanosoma cruzi Transmission by Triatoma dimidiata in Guatemala

PubMed Central

Bustamante, Dulce M.; De Urioste-Stone, Sandra M.; Juárez, José G.; Pennington, Pamela M.

2014-01-01

Background Chagas disease transmission by Triatoma dimidiata persists in Guatemala and elsewhere in Central America under undefined ecological, biological and social (eco-bio-social) conditions. Methodology Eco-bio-social risk factors associated with persistent domiciliary infestation were identified by a cross-sectional survey and qualitative participatory methods. Quantitative and qualitative data were generated regarding Trypanosoma cruzi reservoirs and triatomine hosts. Blood meal analysis and infection of insects, dogs and rodents were determined. Based on these data, multimodel inference was used to identify risk factors for domestic infestation with the greatest relative importance (>0.75). Principal Findings Blood meal analysis showed that 64% of 36 bugs fed on chickens, 50% on humans, 17% on dogs; 24% of 34 bugs fed on Rattus rattus and 21% on Mus musculus. Seroprevalence among 80 dogs was 37%. Eight (17%) of 46 M. musculus and three (43%) of seven R. rattus from households with infected triatomines were infected with T. cruzi Distinct Typing Unit I. Results from interviews and participatory meetings indicated that vector control personnel and some householders perceived chickens roosting and laying eggs in the house as bug infestation risk factors. House construction practices were seen as a risk factor for bug and rodent infestation, with rodents being perceived as a pest by study participants. Multimodel inference showed that house infestation risk factors of high relative importance are dog density, mouse presence, interior wall plaster condition, dirt floor, tile roofing and coffee tree presence. Conclusions/Significance Persistent house infestation is closely related to eco-bio-social factors that maintain productive T. dimidiata habitats associated with dogs, chickens and rodents. Triatomine, dog and rodent infections indicate active T. cruzi transmission. Integrated vector control methods should include actions that consider the role of peridomestic animals in transmission and community memberś level of knowledge, attitudes and practices associated with the disease and transmission process. PMID:25170955

Sleeping sickness in Uganda: revisiting current and historical distributions.

PubMed

Berrang-Ford, Lea; Odiit, Martin; Maiso, Faustin; Waltner-Toews, David; McDermott, John

2006-12-01

Sleeping sickness is a parasitic, vector-borne disease, carried by the tsetse fly and prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa. The disease continues to pose a public health burden in Uganda, which experienced a widespread outbreak in 1900-1920, and a more recent outbreak in 1976-1989. The disease continues to spread to uninfected districts. This paper compares the spatial distributions of sleeping in Uganda for the 1900-1920 outbreak period with current disease foci, and discusses information gaps and implications arising for future research, prevention and control. Population census records for 1911 and sleeping sickness records from Medical and Sanitary Reports of the Ugandan Protectorate for 1905-1936 were extracted from the Uganda Archives. Current sleeping sickness distribution data were provided by the Ministry of Health, Uganda. These were used to develop sleeping sickness distribution maps for comparison between the early 1900s and the early 2000s. The distribution of sleeping sickness from 1905-1920 shows notable differences compared to the current distribution of disease. In particular, archival cases were recorded in south-west and central Uganda, areas currently free of disease. The disease focus has moved from lakeshore Buganda (1905-1920) to the Busoga and south-east districts. Archival sleeping sickness distributions indicate the potential for a much wider area of disease risk than indicated by current disease foci. This is compounded by an absence of tsetse distribution data, continued political instability in north-central Uganda, continued spread of disease into new districts, and evidence of the role of livestock movements in spreading the parasite. These results support concerns as to the potential mergence of the two disease foci in the south-east and north-west of the country.

Freshman Engineering Students At-Risk of Non-Matriculation: Self-Efficacy for Academic Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ernst, Jeremy V.; Bowen, Bradley D.; Williams, Thomas O.

2016-01-01

Students identified as at-risk of non-academic continuation have a propensity toward lower academic self-efficacy than their peers (Lent, 2005). Within engineering, self-efficacy and confidence are major markers of university continuation and success (Lourens, 2014 Raelin, et al., 2014). This study explored academic learning self-efficacy specific…

Domains of Risk in the Developmental Continuity of Fire Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarty, Carolyn A.; McMahon, Robert J.

2005-01-01

Juvenile fire setting is a serious, dangerous, and costly behavior. The majority of research examining youth fire setting has been cross-sectional. We sought to examine early risk attributes that could differentiate fire setters from non-fire setters, in addition to examining their association with the developmental continuity of fire-setting…

Adolescent Neglect, Juvenile Delinquency and the Risk of Recidivism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Joseph P.; Williams, Abigail B.; Courtney, Mark E.

2013-01-01

Victims of child abuse and neglect are at an increased risk of involvement with the juvenile justice and adult correctional systems. Yet, little is known about the continuation and trajectories of offending beyond initial contact with law enforcement. Neglect likely plays a critical role in continued offending as parental monitoring, parental…

Alterations of choroidal blood flow regulation in young healthy subjects with complement factor H polymorphism.

PubMed

Told, Reinhard; Palkovits, Stefan; Haslacher, Helmuth; Frantal, Sophie; Schmidl, Doreen; Boltz, Agnes; Lasta, Michael; Kaya, Semira; Werkmeister, René M; Garhöfer, Gerhard; Schmetterer, Leopold

2013-01-01

A common polymorphism in the complement factor H gene (rs1061170, Y402H) is associated with a high risk of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). In the present study we hypothesized that healthy young subjects homozygous for the high-risk haplotype (CC) show abnormal choroidal blood flow (ChBF) regulation decades before potentially developing the disease. A total of 100 healthy young subjects were included in the present study, of which 4 subjects were excluded due to problems with genotyping or blood flow measurements. ChBF was measured continuously using laser Doppler flowmetry while the subjects performed isometric exercise (squatting) for 6 minutes. The increase in ChBF was less pronounced than the response in ocular perfusion pressure (OPP), indicating for some degree of choroidal blood flow regulation. Eighteen subjects were homozygous for C, 47 subjects were homozygous for T and 31 subjects were heterozygous (CT). The increase in OPP during isometric exercise was not different between groups. By contrast the increase in ChBF was more pronounced in subjects homozygous for the high risk C allele (p = 0.041). This was also evident from the pressure/flow relationship, where the increase in ChBF in homozygous C carriers started at lower OPPs as compared to the other groups. Our data indicate that the regulation of ChBF is abnormal in rs1061170 CC carriers. So far this polymorphism has been linked to age related macular degeneration (AMD) mainly via inflammatory pathways associated with the complement system dysfunction. Our results indicate that it could also be related to vascular factors that have been implicated in AMD pathogenesis.

Overview of adult congenital heart transplants

PubMed Central

Morales, David

2018-01-01

Transplantation for adult patients with congenital heart disease (ACHD) is a growing clinical endeavor in the transplant community. Understanding the results and defining potential high-risk patient subsets will allow optimization of patient outcomes. This review summarizes the scope of ACHD transplantation, the mechanisms of late ventricular dysfunction, the ACHD population at risk of developing heart failure, the indications and potential contraindications for transplant, surgical considerations, and post-transplant outcomes. The findings reveal that 3.3% of adult heart transplants occur in ACHD patients. The potential mechanisms for the development of late ventricular dysfunction include a morphologic systemic right ventricle, altered coronary perfusion, and ventricular noncompaction. The indications for transplant in ACHD patients include systemic ventricular failure refractory medical therapy, Fontan patients failing from chronic passive pulmonary circulation, and progressive cyanosis leading to functional decline. Transplantation in ACHD patients can be quite complex and may require extensive reconstruction of the branch pulmonary arteries, systemic veins, or the aorta. Vasoplegia, bleeding, and graft right ventricular dysfunction can complicate the immediate post-transplant period. The post-transplant operative mortality ranges between 14% and 39%. The majority of early mortality occurs in ACHD patients with univentricular congenital heart disease. However, there has been improvement in operative survival in more contemporary studies. In conclusion, the experience with cardiac transplantation for ACHD patients with end-stage heart failure is growing, and high-risk patient subsets have been defined. Significant strides have been made in developing evidence-based guidelines of indications for transplant, and the intraoperative management of complex reconstruction has evolved. With proper patient selection, more aggressive use of mechanical circulatory support, and earlier referral of patients with failing Fontan physiology, outcomes should continue to improve. PMID:29492392

An investigation of gender differences in a representative sample of juveniles detained in Connecticut.

PubMed

Grigorenko, Elena L; Sullivan, Tami; Chapman, John

2015-01-01

As the number of females served by the juvenile justice system in the United States continues to grow, both in absolute terms and relative to the number of males, it is important to understand both the general and specific characteristics of delinquent girls and boys regarding their patterns of offending and risk variables. Using systematic random sampling, 20% of all admittees to the state-run juvenile detention centers in the state of Connecticut, USA, were included in a chart review study, forming a sample (n = 371, 30.2% girls, age range 11-19 years; mean age = 14.45, sd = 1.05) that was analyzed for gender differences with regard to characteristics of offenses. These characteristics were examined for their potential associations with indicators of risk that are routinely collected at admission to detention. Findings indicate a complex set of associations between indicators of offense and risk, highlighting the importance not only of gender, but also of racial/ethnic differences, whose modulating effects appear to be important in understanding these associations. Specifically, girls in detention are characterized by a number of dimensions, some of which align with those for boys and some that are more gender-specific. For example, girls, as a group, demonstrated higher levels of substance abuse, suicide ideation, victimization, and mental-health variability, but these higher scores are more characteristic of girls from minority backgrounds. More research is needed to understand the profiles of juveniles in detention as the variables considered in this work that map onto the literature at large have resulted in effects of small magnitude. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in Biometric Health Indices Within an Employer-Sponsored Wellness Program With Outcome-Based Incentives.

PubMed

Fu, Patricia Lin; Bradley, Kent L; Viswanathan, Sheila; Chan, June M; Stampfer, Meir

2016-07-01

To evaluate changes in employees' biometrics over time relative to outcome-based incentive thresholds. Retrospective cohort analysis of biometric screening participants (n = 26 388). Large employer primarily in Western United States. Office, retail, and distribution workforce. A voluntary outcome-based biometric screening program, incentivized with health insurance premium discounts. Body mass index (BMI), cholesterol, blood glucose, blood pressure, and nicotine. Followed were participants from their first year of participation, evaluating changes in measures. On average, participants who did not meet the incentive threshold at baseline decreased their BMI (1%), glucose (8%), blood pressure (systolic 9%, diastolic 8%), and total cholesterol (8%) by year 2 with improvements generally sustained or continued during each additional year of participation. On average, individuals at high health risk who participated in a financially incentivized biometric assessment program improved their health indices over time. Further research is needed to understand key determinants that drive health improvement indicated here. © The Author(s) 2016.

Spatial and temporal ecological risk assessment of unionized ammonia nitrogen in Tai Lake, China (2004-2015).

PubMed

Li, Yabing; Xu, Elvis Genbo; Liu, Wei; Chen, Yi; Liu, Hongling; Li, Di; Liu, Zhengtao; Giesy, John P; Yu, Hongxia

2017-06-01

Ammonia toxicity varies largely due to its pH- and temperature-dependent speciation (unionized ammonia nitrogen, NH 3 -N). The seasonal and long-term trend of ammonia risk in ecologically significant sections of Tai Lake, China was unknown. In this study, a two-level (deterministic and quantitative) method was developed to assess the special ecological risks posed by NH 3 -N at 37 sites during two seasons (February and September) of 2014 in Tai Lake. The long-term temporal (2004-2015) risk posed by NH 3 -N was also assessed by comparing annual quantitative risk values (probability of exceeding acute or chronic threshold values) in three key sections of Tai Lake. The results indicated the species living in the Tai Lake were at a 0.04% and 32.45% chance of risk due to acute exposure, and a 1.97% and 92.05% chance of risk due to chronic exposure in February and September of 2014, respectively. Alarmingly, the chronic ecological risks of NH 3 -N in the Lanshanzui section of the Tai Lake remained >30% from 2004 to 2011. The chronic risk of NH 3 -N in all three key sections of Tai Lake started to decrease in 2011. This was likely the consequence of the control practice of eutrophication implemented in the Tai Lake. A significant decline in diversity of the benthic invertebrate community of the Tai Lake could be associated with continuous exposure to ammonia over decades given different sensitivity of taxa to ammonia. The results laid a scientific foundation for risk assessment and management of ammonia in Tai Lake, China, and the developed two-level risk assessment approach can also be applied to other similar aquatic regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

General practitioners' clinical expertise in managing suicidal young people: implications for continued education.

PubMed

Michail, Maria; Tait, Lynda; Churchill, Dick

2017-09-01

Aim To examine general practitioners' (GPs) clinical expertise in assessing, communicating with, and managing suicidal young people aged 14-25 to inform the development of an educational intervention for GPs on youth suicide prevention. Suicide is the second leading cause of death for young people worldwide. GPs are ideally suited to facilitate early identification and assessment of suicide risk. However, GPs' levels of competence, knowledge, and attitudes towards suicidal young people have not yet been explored. A cross-sectional survey on GPs' levels of confidence in assessing and managing young people at risk of suicide; knowledge of risk factors and warning signs of suicide in young people; attitudes towards young suicidal people; and training preferences on managing suicide risk. Findings Seventy GPs completed the survey (30 males). The majority of GPs reported high levels of confidence in assessing and managing suicidality in young people. Experienced GPs demonstrated high levels of knowledge of suicide risk factors in young people but low levels of knowledge of warning signs that might indicate heightened risk. Although 48% of GPs disagreed that maintaining compassionate care is difficult with those who deliberately self-harm, GPs perceived communication with young people to be difficult, with one-third reporting frustration in managing those at risk of suicide. A total of 75% of GPs said they would be interested in receiving further training on assessing and managing young people at risk of suicide. The study has important implications for providing specialist training to support GPs in assessing and managing youth suicide risk and facilitating attitudinal change. GP education on youth suicide risk assessment and management should promote a holistic understanding and assessment of risk and its individual, social and contextual influences in line with clinical recommendations to facilitate therapeutic engagement and communication with young people.

Lung cancer risk by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a Mediterranean industrialized area.

PubMed

Cuadras, Anna; Rovira, Enric; Marcé, Rosa Maria; Borrull, Francesc

2016-11-01

This study focuses on characterizing the chronic risk assessment from inhalation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for people living near the largest chemical complex in the Mediterranean area. Eighteen PAHs were determined in the atmospheric gas and particle phases, counting PM 10 and total suspended particles. The lifetime lung cancer risk from PAH exposure was estimated, and the contribution was assessed by phases. The results obtained with the continuous lifetime scenario were compared with those obtained with different chronic scenarios. The estimated chronic risk was also compared with those reported in previous studies. PAHs were present at higher concentration in the gas phase (>84 %) with a major contribution of the most volatile PAHs, and an equitable distribution of heavy PAHs between gas and particle phases was observed. Petroleum combustion and traffic emissions were suggested as the main sources, but the influence of petrogenic sources cannot be ruled out. The estimated average lifetime lung cancer risk in this study ranged between 3.2 × 10 -5 and 4.3 × 10 -5 . The gas phase accounted for the most significant contribution to the total risk (>60 %). Fluoranthene (FluT), dibenzo(a,h)anthracene (DahA) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), as a whole, made the greatest contribution to the total risk (>80 %). BaP-bound PM 10 accounted for a small contribution of the total risk (10 %). Chronic exposures lower than total lifetime hours could even pose a risk >10 -5 . The results also showed that BaP-bound PM 10 , according to current legislation, may not be a good indicator of the real risk by PAH exposure. Concerning previous studies, the economic situation may have an impact on reducing the cancer risk by PAH inhalation.

Decentralized peri-urban wastewater treatment technologies assessment integrating sustainability indicators.

PubMed

Mena-Ulecia, Karel; Hernández, Heykel Hernández

2015-01-01

Selection of treatment technologies without considering the environmental, economic and social factors associated with each geographical context risks the occurrence of negative impacts that were not properly foreseen, working against the sustainable performance of the technology. The principal aim of this study was to evaluate 12 technologies for decentralized treatment of domestic wastewater applicable to peri-urban communities using sustainability approaches and, at the same time, continuing a discussion about how to address a more integrated assessment of overall sustainability. For this, a set of 13 indicators that embody the environmental, economic and social approach for the overall sustainability assessment were used by means of a target plot diagram as a tool for integrating indicators that represent a holistic analysis of the technologies. The obtained results put forward different degrees of sustainability, which led to the selection of: septic tank+land infiltration; up-flow anaerobic reactor+high rate trickling filter and septic tank+anaerobic filter as the most sustainable and attractive technologies to be applied in peri-urban communities, according to the employed indicators.

Business continuity and pandemic preparedness: US health care versus non-health care agencies.

PubMed

Rebmann, Terri; Wang, Jing; Swick, Zachary; Reddick, David; delRosario, John Leon

2013-04-01

Only limited data are available on US business continuity activities related to biologic events. A questionnaire was administered to human resource professionals during May-July 2011 to assess business continuity related to biologic events, incentives businesses are providing to maximize worker surge capacity, and seasonal influenza vaccination policy. Linear regressions were used to describe factors associated with higher business continuity and pandemic preparedness scores. The χ(2) and Fisher exact tests compared health care versus non-health care businesses on preparedness indicators. Possible business continuity and pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0.5 to 27 and 0 to 15, with average resulting scores among participants at 13.2 and 7.3, respectively. Determinants of business continuity and pandemic preparedness were (1) business size (larger businesses were more prepared), (2) type of business (health care more prepared), (3) having human resource professional as company disaster planning committee member, and (4) risk perception of a pandemic in the next year. Most businesses (63.3%, n = 298) encourage staff influenza vaccination; 2.1% (n = 10) mandate it. Only 10% of businesses (11.0%, n = 52) provide employee incentives, and fewer than half (41.0%, n = 193) stockpile personal protective equipment. Despite the recent H1N1 pandemic, many US businesses lack adequate pandemic plans. It is critical that businesses of all sizes and types become better prepared for a biologic event. Copyright © 2013 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Discharge prescribing of enteral opioids after initiation as a weaning strategy from continuous opioid infusions in the Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Kram, Bridgette; Weigel, Kylie M; Kuhrt, Michelle; Gilstrap, Daniel L

To evaluate the proportion of patients receiving a hospital discharge prescription for a scheduled enteral opioid following initiation as a weaning strategy from a continuous opioid infusion in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Retrospective, observational study. Five adult ICUs at a large, quaternary care academic medical center. Endotracheally intubated, opioid-naive adults receiving a continuous opioid infusion with a concomitant scheduled enteral opioid initiated. Exclusion criteria were receipt of fewer than two enteral opioid doses, documentation of a long-acting opioid as a home medication, the indication for the enteral opioid was not a weaning strategy, death during hospital admission or discharge to hospice. None. The proportion of ICU and hospital survivors who received a discharge prescription for a scheduled enteral opioid, total duration of continuous opioid infusion, duration of continuous opioid infusion after initiation of an enteral opioid therapy, total duration of enteral therapy, ICU and hospital length of stay. Of 62 included patients, 19 patients (30.6 percent) received a new prescription for a scheduled enteral opioid at hospital discharge. The median duration of enteral opioid therapy was longer for patients who received a discharge prescription compared to those who did not (20.09 vs 8.89 days, p = 0.02), though the remaining endpoints were not different. Utilizing scheduled enteral opioids as a weaning strategy from continuous opioid infusions may place patients at risk of ICU-acquired physical dependence on opioids.

Absence of early epileptiform abnormalities predicts lack of seizures on continuous EEG.

PubMed

Shafi, Mouhsin M; Westover, M Brandon; Cole, Andrew J; Kilbride, Ronan D; Hoch, Daniel B; Cash, Sydney S

2012-10-23

To determine whether the absence of early epileptiform abnormalities predicts absence of later seizures on continuous EEG monitoring of hospitalized patients. We retrospectively reviewed 242 consecutive patients without a prior generalized convulsive seizure or active epilepsy who underwent continuous EEG monitoring lasting at least 18 hours for detection of nonconvulsive seizures or evaluation of unexplained altered mental status. The findings on the initial 30-minute screening EEG, subsequent continuous EEG recordings, and baseline clinical data were analyzed. We identified early EEG findings associated with absence of seizures on subsequent continuous EEG. Seizures were detected in 70 (29%) patients. A total of 52 patients had their first seizure in the initial 30 minutes of continuous EEG monitoring. Of the remaining 190 patients, 63 had epileptiform discharges on their initial EEG, 24 had triphasic waves, while 103 had no epileptiform abnormalities. Seizures were later detected in 22% (n = 14) of studies with epileptiform discharges on their initial EEG, vs 3% (n = 3) of the studies without epileptiform abnormalities on initial EEG (p < 0.001). In the 3 patients without epileptiform abnormalities on initial EEG but with subsequent seizures, the first epileptiform discharge or electrographic seizure occurred within the first 4 hours of recording. In patients without epileptiform abnormalities during the first 4 hours of recording, no seizures were subsequently detected. Therefore, EEG features early in the recording may indicate a low risk for seizures, and help determine whether extended monitoring is necessary.

Absence of early epileptiform abnormalities predicts lack of seizures on continuous EEG

PubMed Central

Westover, M. Brandon; Cole, Andrew J.; Kilbride, Ronan D.; Hoch, Daniel B.; Cash, Sydney S.

2012-01-01

Objective: To determine whether the absence of early epileptiform abnormalities predicts absence of later seizures on continuous EEG monitoring of hospitalized patients. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 242 consecutive patients without a prior generalized convulsive seizure or active epilepsy who underwent continuous EEG monitoring lasting at least 18 hours for detection of nonconvulsive seizures or evaluation of unexplained altered mental status. The findings on the initial 30-minute screening EEG, subsequent continuous EEG recordings, and baseline clinical data were analyzed. We identified early EEG findings associated with absence of seizures on subsequent continuous EEG. Results: Seizures were detected in 70 (29%) patients. A total of 52 patients had their first seizure in the initial 30 minutes of continuous EEG monitoring. Of the remaining 190 patients, 63 had epileptiform discharges on their initial EEG, 24 had triphasic waves, while 103 had no epileptiform abnormalities. Seizures were later detected in 22% (n = 14) of studies with epileptiform discharges on their initial EEG, vs 3% (n = 3) of the studies without epileptiform abnormalities on initial EEG (p < 0.001). In the 3 patients without epileptiform abnormalities on initial EEG but with subsequent seizures, the first epileptiform discharge or electrographic seizure occurred within the first 4 hours of recording. Conclusions: In patients without epileptiform abnormalities during the first 4 hours of recording, no seizures were subsequently detected. Therefore, EEG features early in the recording may indicate a low risk for seizures, and help determine whether extended monitoring is necessary. PMID:23054233

Evolving Use of Natriuretic Peptides as Part of Strategies for Heart Failure Prevention.

PubMed

McDonald, Ken; Wilkinson, Mark

2017-01-01

Heart failure (HF) remains one of the major cardiovascular challenges to the Western world. Once established, HF is characterized by compromised life expectancy and quality of life with considerable dependence on hospital care for episodic clinical deterioration. Much is understood about the risk factors that predispose to the development of HF. With such a broad range of factors, it is clear that there is a large population at risk, potentially in excess of 25% of the adult population. Therein lies the major challenge at the outset of our efforts to prevent HF. With such a large population at risk, how do we develop an effective prevention strategy? HF prevention requires a multimodal approach. In this review, we focus primarily on the role of natriuretic peptide (NP) as a tool in a prevention strategy. Prevention of HF is a major public health challenge, underlined by the concerning epidemiological trends, the associated costs, and the continued difficulty to find effective therapies for the growing number of patients with preserved systolic function HF. Population-based approaches focusing on lifestyle and risk factor control have made some impact but not to a satisfactory level and also tend to result in a uniform approach across a population with different risk profiles. Individualizing risk is therefore required, with emerging data indicating that NP-guided risk stratification and intervention can reduce downstream incident HF and other cardiovascular events. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Bayesian structured additive regression modeling of epidemic data: application to cholera

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background A significant interest in spatial epidemiology lies in identifying associated risk factors which enhances the risk of infection. Most studies, however, make no, or limited use of the spatial structure of the data, as well as possible nonlinear effects of the risk factors. Methods We develop a Bayesian Structured Additive Regression model for cholera epidemic data. Model estimation and inference is based on fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The model is applied to cholera epidemic data in the Kumasi Metropolis, Ghana. Proximity to refuse dumps, density of refuse dumps, and proximity to potential cholera reservoirs were modeled as continuous functions; presence of slum settlers and population density were modeled as fixed effects, whereas spatial references to the communities were modeled as structured and unstructured spatial effects. Results We observe that the risk of cholera is associated with slum settlements and high population density. The risk of cholera is equal and lower for communities with fewer refuse dumps, but variable and higher for communities with more refuse dumps. The risk is also lower for communities distant from refuse dumps and potential cholera reservoirs. The results also indicate distinct spatial variation in the risk of cholera infection. Conclusion The study highlights the usefulness of Bayesian semi-parametric regression model analyzing public health data. These findings could serve as novel information to help health planners and policy makers in making effective decisions to control or prevent cholera epidemics. PMID:22866662

Isotemporal Substitution Analysis for Physical Activity, Television Watching, and Risk of Depression

PubMed Central

Mekary, Rania A.; Lucas, Michel; Pan, An; Okereke, Olivia I.; Willett, Walter C.; Hu, Frank B.; Ding, Eric L.

2013-01-01

The isotemporal substitution model (ISM) was previously developed as a methodology to study the time-substitution effects of 1 type of activity for another in a data setting with continuous outcomes. To demonstrate the application of ISM with a dichotomous outcome, we prospectively examined the associations of different activities with various activity displacements with depression risk among 32,900 US women from the Nurses' Health Study who were free from depressive symptoms at baseline (in 1996). During a 10-year follow-up, 5,730 incident depression cases were documented. Results from the ISMs indicated that for each physical activity, differences in magnitude of effects of each activity type were observed, dependent on the activity being displaced/substituted. Notably, an isotemporal substitution gradient was found for television watching, in which its association with depression risk varied by its substitution for slow-, average-, or brisk-paced walking in a gradient toward high depression risk when television watching replaced a faster walking pace (relative risk = 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 1.31). Conversely, no association with depression was found for replacement of television watching with 60 minutes/day of slow walking, whereas a lower depression risk (relative risk = 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.76, 0.95) was found when 60 minutes/day of brisk walking replaced 60 minutes/day of television watching. Thus, the ISM could offer a more meaningful alternative to the standard nonsubstitution models to support public health recommendations. PMID:23785112

Influences of a Church-Based Intervention on Falls Risk Among Seniors.

PubMed

Briggs, Morgan; Morzinski, Jeffrey A; Ellis, Julie

2017-08-01

Prior studies illustrate that community-based programs effectively decrease falls risk in older adults and that faith-based programs improve health behaviors. The literature is unclear whether faith-based initiatives reduce seniors' fall risks. To tackle this gap, a long-term partnership led by 10 urban churches, a nearby nursing school, and a medical school developed a study with 3 objectives: determine baseline health concerns associated with falls (eg, depression, polypharmacy), implement a nurse-led, faith-based health education initiative for community-dwelling African American seniors at-risk of hospitalization, and assess pre- to post -program fall frequency. The 100 Healthy, At-Risk Families study team implemented 8 monthly educational health sessions promoting self-care and social support. Community nurses led the 60- to 90-minute sessions at each of 10 churches. To collect study data, nurses interviewed enrolled seniors pre- and post-intervention. Descriptive and comparison statistics were analyzed in Excel and Statistical Package for Social Sciences. Senior data at baseline found high rates of polypharmacy and physical imbalance, and no significant depression or gaps in social support. There was not a statistically significant change pre- to post-program in fall frequency "in prior year." Study findings reveal insights about African American senior health and fall risks. Church settings may provide a protective, psychosocial buffer for seniors, while polypharmacy and mobility/balance concerns indicate need for continued attention to fall risks. No increase in pre- to post-program falls was encouraging.

Perceptions of risk to HIV Infection among Adolescents in Uganda: Are they Related to Sexual Behaviour?

PubMed Central

Kibombo, Richard; Neema, Stella; Ahmed, Fatima H.

2008-01-01

Uganda has been hailed as a success story in the fight against HIV that has seen a reversal in prevalence from a peak of 15% in 1991 to about 6.5% currently. Since 1992, the largest and most consistent declines in HIV have occurred among the 15–19-year-olds. While many studies have examined how key behavior changes (Abstinence, Be faithful and Condom use) have contributed to the decline in HIV prevalence, few have studied the relationship between sexual behaviors and risk perception. Using data from the 2004 National Survey of Adolescents, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to examine the strength of the association between risky sexual behavior and perceived risk among 12–19-year-old adolescents in Uganda. After controlling for other correlates of sexual behavior such as age, education, residence, region and marital status, the findings indicate highly significant positive association between perceived risk and risky sexual behavior among males but not females. The findings reveal that, regardless of their current sexual behavior, most female adolescents in Uganda feel at great risk of HIV infection. The findings also show that adolescents with broken marriages are much more vulnerable to high risk sexual behaviors than other categories of adolescents. These results further emphasize the need for a holistic approach in addressing the social, economic and contextual factors that continue to put many adolescents at risk of HIV infection. PMID:18458740

Sibling Influence on Mexican-Origin Adolescents’ Deviant and Sexual Risk Behaviors: The Role of Sibling Modeling

PubMed Central

Whiteman, Shawn D.; Zeiders, Katharine H.; Killoren, Sarah E.; Rodriguez, Sue Annie; Updegraff, Kimberly A.

2013-01-01

Purpose A growing body of research indicates that siblings uniquely influence each other’s health risk behaviors during adolescence and young adulthood. Mechanisms underlying these associations, however, are largely unknown because they are rarely tested directly. The present study addressed this gap by examining the role of sibling modeling in explaining changes in Mexican-origin youths’ deviant and sexual risk behaviors over time. Methods The sample included 380 Mexican-origin siblings (older sibling age: M = 21.18, SD = 1.59; younger sibling age: M = 18.19, SD = .46) from (N = 190) families. Participants provided self-reports of their sibling relationship qualities, including modeling, as well as their engagement in deviant and sexual risk taking behaviors in two home interviews across a two-year span. Results A series of residualized regression models revealed that younger siblings’ perceptions of modeling moderated the links between older siblings’ deviant and sexual risk behaviors and younger siblings’ subsequent behaviors in those same domains. Specifically, high levels of modeling predicted stronger associations between older siblings’ earlier and younger siblings’ later risk behaviors controlling for younger siblings’ earlier behaviors as well as variables that have been used as proxies for social learning in previous research. Conclusions Social learning mechanisms, especially modeling, are salient processes through which older siblings transmit norms and expectations regarding participation in health risk behaviors. Future research should continue to explore the ways in which siblings influence each other because such processes are emerging targets for intervention and prevention. PMID:24287013

Informed renesting decisions: the effect of nest predation risk.

PubMed

Pakanen, Veli-Matti; Rönkä, Nelli; Thomson, Robert L; Koivula, Kari

2014-04-01

Animals should cue on information that predicts reproductive success. After failure of an initial reproductive attempt, decisions on whether or not to initiate a second reproductive attempt may be affected by individual experience and social information. If the prospects of breeding success are poor, long-lived animals in particular should not invest in current reproductive success (CRS) in case it generates costs to future reproductive success (FRS). In birds, predation risk experienced during breeding may provide a cue for renesting success. Species having a high FRS potential should be flexible and take predation risk into account in their renesting decisions. We tested this prediction using breeding data of a long-lived wader, the southern dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii. As predicted, dunlin cued on predation risk information acquired from direct experience of nest failure due to predation and ambient nest predation risk. While the overall renesting rate was low (34.5%), the early season renesting rate was high but declined with season, indicating probable temporal changes in the costs and benefits of renesting. We develop a conceptual cost-benefit model to describe the effects of the phase and the length of breeding season on predation risk responses in renesting. We suggest that species investing in FRS should not continue breeding in short breeding seasons in response to predation risk but without time constraints, their response should be similar to species investing in CRS, e.g. within-season dispersal and increased nest concealment.

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Cardiovascular Risk and Mortality-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2018-02-12

Diet and chronic inflammation have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related mortality. The possible link between the inflammatory potential of diet measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ) and CVD has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from 14 studies were eligible, of which two were case-control, eleven were cohort, and one was cross-sectional. Results from the random-effects meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CVD. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed a 36% increased risk of CVD incidence and mortality, with moderate evidence of heterogeneity (relative risk (RR) = 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 1.57; heterogeneity index I ² = 69%, p < 0.001). When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CVD risk and mortality of 8% for each one-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet for preventing CVD incidence and related mortality. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with increased risk of CVD and CVD mortality. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CVD incidence and mortality.

Implicit Messages Regarding Unhealthy Foodstuffs in Chinese Television Advertisements: Increasing the Risk of Obesity.

PubMed

Chang, Angela; Schulz, Peter J; Schirato, Tony; Hall, Brian J

2018-01-04

Previous studies indicated that television (TV) advertising is associated with higher rates of obesity. The rate of obesity and overweight continues to rise in mainland China, bringing into question whether TV advertising to young audiences might be partly to blame. This study investigated messaging delivered through TV advertisements regarding healthy and unhealthy foodstuffs. A total of 42 major food brands and 480 advertisements were analysed for content in this study. The results showed that the majority of TV spots advertised products with poor nutritional content and had a potential to mislead audiences concerning products' actual nutritional value. The tactics of repetition and appeals of premium offerings on food brands have a potential to influence the purchase intentions. Additional qualitative observation involving the social bond, social context and cultural factors pertaining to mood alterations were highlighted. The discussion addressed product attributes reflected by culture and the implicit messages of marketing claims may increase the risk of obesity. Thus, public health policymakers and researchers were encouraged to act urgently to evaluate the obesity risks of unhealthy food advertised in the media and to support healthy foods.

Emotional Intelligence: An Untapped Resource for Alcohol and Other Drug Related Prevention among Adolescents and Adults

PubMed Central

Coelho, Ken Russell

2012-01-01

Alcohol and Other Drug abuse in adolescents and adults continues to be a major public health problem in the United States. Care in intervention programs aimed at high risk populations identified occurs after the maladaptive behavioral delinquency has occurred, and only then is an individual afforded the opportunity to join an intervention program. The focus of this paper is to illustrate and highlight the value of prevention programs which emphasize altering maladaptive behavior before the behavior becomes problematic. Emotional Intelligence is not only an indicator of alcohol and other drug abuse, but is linked to emotional competence, social and emotional learning, the development of healthy and life promoting behavior, and has been proven to reduce some of the risk factors associated with alcohol and other drug abuse in adolescents and adults. This paper seeks to recognize the significance of Emotional Intelligence as a desirable health promoting attribute and to establish the importance of its conceptual use in a prevention based model for reducing associated high risk behaviors. PMID:22570777

Sex hormones, aging, and Alzheimer’s disease

PubMed Central

Barron, Anna M.; Pike, Christian J.

2012-01-01

A promising strategy to delay and perhaps prevent Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is to identify the age-related changes that put the brain at risk for the disease. A significant normal age change known to result in tissue-specific dysfunction is the depletion of sex hormones. In women, menopause results in a relatively rapid loss of estradiol and progesterone. In men, aging is associated with a comparatively gradual yet significant decrease in testosterone. We review a broad literature that indicates age-related losses of estrogens in women and testosterone in men are risk factors for AD. Both estrogens and androgens exert a wide range of protective actions that improve multiple aspects of neural health, suggesting that hormone therapies have the potential to combat AD pathogenesis. However, translation of experimental findings into effective therapies has proven challenging. One emerging treatment option is the development of novel hormone mimetics termed selective estrogen and androgen receptor modulators. Continued research of sex hormones and their roles in the aging brain is expected to yield valuable approaches to reducing the risk of AD. PMID:22201929

Real-time assessment of fog-related crashes using airport weather data: a feasibility analysis.

PubMed

Ahmed, Mohamed M; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung; Yu, Rongjie

2014-11-01

The effect of reduction of visibility on crash occurrence has recently been a major concern. Although visibility detection systems can help to mitigate the increased hazard of limited-visibility, such systems are not widely implemented and many locations with no systems are experiencing considerable number of fatal crashes due to reduction in visibility caused by fog and inclement weather. On the other hand, airports' weather stations continuously monitor all climate parameters in real-time, and the gathered data may be utilized to mitigate the increased risk for the adjacent roadways. This study aims to examine the viability of using airport weather information in real-time road crash risk assessment in locations with recurrent fog problems. Bayesian logistic regression was utilized to link six years (2005-2010) of historical crash data to real-time weather information collected from eight airports in the State of Florida, roadway characteristics and aggregate traffic parameters. The results from this research indicate that real-time weather data collected from adjacent airports are good predictors to assess increased risk on highways. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chromium carcinogenicity: California strategies.

PubMed

Alexeeff, G V; Satin, K; Painter, P; Zeise, L; Popejoy, C; Murchison, G

1989-10-01

Hexavalent chromium was identified by California as a toxic air contaminant (TAC) in January 1986. The California Department of Health Services (CDHS) concurred with the findings of the International Agency for Research on Cancer that there is sufficient evidence to demonstrate the carcinogenicity of chromium in both animals and humans. CDHS did not find any compelling evidence demonstrating the existence of a threshold with respect to chromium carcinogenesis. Experimental data was judged inadequate to assess potential human reproductive risks from ambient exposures. Other health effects were not expected to occur at ambient levels. The theoretically increased lifetime carcinogenic risk from a continuous lifetime exposure to hexavalent chromium fell within the range 12-146 cancer cases per nanogram hexavalent chromium per cubic meter of air per million people exposed, depending on the potency estimate used. The primary sources found to contribute significantly to the risk of exposure were chrome platers, chromic acid anodizing facilities and cooling towers utilizing hexavalent chromium as a corrosion inhibitor. Evaluation of genotoxicity data, animal studies and epidemiological studies indicates that further consideration should be given to the potential carcinogenicity of hexavalent chromium via the oral route.

[Impact of cigarette package health warnings with pictures in Mexico: results from a survey of smokers in Guadalajara].

PubMed

Thrasher, James F; Pérez-Hernández, Rosaura; Arillo-Santillán, Edna; Barrientos-Gutiérrez, Inti

2012-06-01

Evaluate the impact of the first pictorial health warning labels (HWLs) on cigarette packs in Mexico. Cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of 1 765 adult smokers from Guadalajara, Mexico, 2010. Logistic regression models were estimated to determine the association between recall of having purchased a pack with a pictorial HWL and psychosocial variables indicating their impact. 58% reported having purchased a pack with one of the pictorial HWLs, and these were considered the exposed population. Exposed smokers reported a greater frequency of thinking about smoking-related risks (34 vs. 25% p=0.003), and thinking about quitting smoking (23 vs. 14% p=0.001). Exposure to pictorial HWLs was also associated with a greater acceptability of HWLs as a means of communicating with smokers (93 vs. 87% p<0.001), as was the perception that the government communicates well about tobacco-related health risks (68 vs. 55% p<0.001). Pictorial HWLs have made smokers think more about these risks and about quitting smoking. This policy should continue to be exploited as a cost-effective educational intervention.

A winning combination: the 3Cs of business continuity.

PubMed

Glendon, Lee

2013-01-01

Contingency planning is a natural part of business life and is used across identified strategic, financial and operational risks. But is it being done well and is it the right approach all of the time? This paper shows how contingency planning forms one layer of a three-line defence termed 'the 3Cs of business continuity': contingency planning; continuity capability; crisis response. Collectively, 'the 3Cs' help organisations deliver a robust response to the risks that can be seen and those that cannot.

Incidence, Etiology and Risk Factors for Travelers Diarrhea during a Hospital Ship-Based Military Humanitarian Mission: Continuing Promise 2011 (Open Access Publishers Version)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-12

RESEARCH ARTICLE Incidence, Etiology and Risk Factors for Travelers ’ Diarrhea during a Hospital Ship- Based Military Humanitarian Mission: Continuing...Development Foundation, Bali, Indonesia ☯ These authors contributed equally to this work. *mark.s.riddle10.mil@mail.mil Abstract Travelers ’ diarrhea (TD) is...the most common ailment affecting travelers , including deployed U.S. military. Continuing Promise 2011 was a 5-month humanitarian assistance/disaster

Socioeconomic Status, Marital Status Continuity and Change, Marital Conflict, and Mortality

PubMed Central

Choi, Heejeong; Marks, Nadine F.

2010-01-01

Objectives We investigated (1) whether being continuously married compared to other marital status trajectories over 5 years attenuates the adverse effects of lower education and lower income on longevity, (2) whether being in higher-conflict as well as lower-conflict marriage compared to being single provides a buffer against SES inequalities in mortality, and (3) whether the conditional effects of marital factors on the SES-mortality association vary by gender. Method We estimated logistic regression models with data from adults aged 30 or older who participated in the National Survey of Families and Households 1987–2002. Results Being continuously married, compared to being continuously never married or making a transition to separation/divorce, buffered mortality risks among men with low income. Mortality risk for low income men was also lower in higher-conflict marriages compared to being never married or previously married. Discussion Marriage ameliorates mortality risks for some low income men. PMID:21273502

Socioeconomic status, marital status continuity and change, marital conflict, and mortality.

PubMed

Choi, Heejeong; Marks, Nadine F

2011-06-01

The authors investigated (a) whether being continuously married compared with other marital status trajectories over 5 years attenuates the adverse effects of lower education and lower income on longevity, (b) whether being in higher conflict as well as lower conflict marriage compared with being single provides a buffer against socioeconomic status inequalities in mortality, and (c) whether the conditional effects of marital factors on the SES-mortality association vary by gender. The authors estimated logistic regression models with data from adults aged 30 or above who participated in the National Survey of Families and Households 1987- 2002. Being continuously married, compared with being continuously never married or making a transition to separation/divorce, buffered mortality risks among men with low income. Mortality risk for low-income men was also lower in higher conflict marriages compared with being never married or previously married. Marriage ameliorates mortality risks for some low-income men.

Counselor-Level Predictors of Sustained Use of an Indicated Preventive Intervention for Aggressive Children.

PubMed

Lochman, John E; Powell, Nicole P; Boxmeyer, Caroline L; Qu, Lixin; Sallee, Meghann; Wells, Karen C; Windle, Michael

2015-11-01

Despite widespread concern about the frequent failure of trained prevention staff to continue to use evidence-based programs following periods of intensive training, little research has addressed the characteristics and experiences of counselors that might predict their sustained use of a program. The current study follows a sample of school counselors who were trained to use an indicated preventive intervention, the Coping Power program, in an earlier dissemination study, and determines their levels of continued use of the program's child and parent components in the 2 years following the counselors' intensive training in the program. Counselor characteristics and experiences were also examined as predictors of their sustained use of the program components. The Coping Power program addresses children's emotional regulation, social cognitive processes, and increases in positive interpersonal behaviors with at-risk children who have been screened to have moderate to high levels of aggressive behavior. The results indicated that counselors' perceptions of interpersonal support from teachers within their schools, their perceptions of the effectiveness of the program, and their expectations for using the program were all predictive of program use over the following 2 years. In addition, certain counselor personality characteristics (i.e., conscientiousness) and the level of actual teacher-rated behavior change experienced by the children they worked with during training were predictors of counselors' use of the program during the second year after training. These results indicate the central importance of teacher support and of child progress during training in the prediction of counselors' sustained use of a prevention program.

Renal Stone Risk During Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitson, Peggy A.; Pietrzyk, Robert A.; Sams, Clarence F.; Pak, Charles Y. C.; Jones, Jeffrey A.

1999-01-01

Space flight produces a number of metabolic and physiological changes in the crewmembers exposed to microgravity. Following launch, body fluid volumes, electrolyte levels, and bone and muscle undergo changes as the human body adapts to the weightless environment. Changes in the urinary chemical composition may lead to the potentially serious consequences of renal stone formation. Previous data collected immediately after space flight indicate changes in the urine chemistry favoring an increased risk of calcium oxalate and uric acid stone formation (n = 323). During short term Shuttle space flights, the changes observed include increased urinary calcium and decreased urine volume, pH and citrate resulting in a greater risk for calcium oxalate and brushite stone formation (n = 6). Results from long duration Shuttle/Mir missions (n = 9) followed a similar trend and demonstrated decreased fluid intake and urine volume and increased urinary calcium resulting in a urinary environment saturated with the calcium stone-forming salts. The increased risk occurs rapidly upon exposure to microgravity, continues throughout the space flight and following landing. Dietary factors, especially fluid intake, or pharmacologic intervention can significantly influence the urinary chemical composition. Increasing fluid intake to produce a daily urine output of 2 liters/day may allow the excess salts in the urine to remain in solution, crystals formation will not occur and a renal stone will not develop. Results from long duration crewmembers (n = 2) who had urine volumes greater than 2.5 L/day minimized their risk of renal stone formation. Also, comparisons of stone-forming risk in short duration crewmembers clearly identified greater risk in those who produced less than 2 liters of urine/day. However, hydration and increased urine output does not correct the underlying calcium excretion due to bone loss and only treats the symptoms and not the cause of the increased urinary salts. Dietary modification and promising pharmacologic treatments may also be used to reduce the potential risk for renal stone formation. Potassium citrate is being used clinically to increase the urinary inhibitor levels to minimize the development of crystals and the growth of renal stones. Bisphosphonates are a class of drugs recently shown to help in patients with osteoporosis by inhibiting the loss of bones in elderly patients. This drug could potentially prevent the bone loss observed in astronauts and thereby minimize the increase in urinary calcium and reduce the risk for renal stone development. Results of NASA's renal stone risk assessment program clearly indicate that exposure to microgravity changes the urinary chemical environment such that there is an increased risk for supersaturation of stone-forming salts, including calcium oxalaie and brushite. These studies have indicated specific avenues for development of countermeasures for the increased renal stone risk observed during and following space flight. Increased hydration and implementation of pharmacologic countermeasures should largely mitigate the in-flight risk of renal stones.

[Theoretical model study about the application risk of high risk medical equipment].

PubMed

Shang, Changhao; Yang, Fenghui

2014-11-01

Research for establishing a risk monitoring theoretical model of high risk medical equipment at applying site. Regard the applying site as a system which contains some sub-systems. Every sub-system consists of some risk estimating indicators. After quantizing of each indicator, the quantized values are multiplied with corresponding weight and then the products are accumulated. Hence, the risk estimating value of each subsystem is attained. Follow the calculating method, the risk estimating values of each sub-system are multiplied with corresponding weights and then the product is accumulated. The cumulative sum is the status indicator of the high risk medical equipment at applying site. The status indicator reflects the applying risk of the medical equipment at applying site. Establish a risk monitoring theoretical model of high risk medical equipment at applying site. The model can monitor the applying risk of high risk medical equipment at applying site dynamically and specially.

Outcome Probability versus Magnitude: When Waiting Benefits One at the Cost of the Other

PubMed Central

Young, Michael E.; Webb, Tara L.; Rung, Jillian M.; McCoy, Anthony W.

2014-01-01

Using a continuous impulsivity and risk platform (CIRP) that was constructed using a video game engine, choice was assessed under conditions in which waiting produced a continuously increasing probability of an outcome with a continuously decreasing magnitude (Experiment 1) or a continuously increasing magnitude of an outcome with a continuously decreasing probability (Experiment 2). Performance in both experiments reflected a greater desire for a higher probability even though the corresponding wait times produced substantive decreases in overall performance. These tendencies are considered to principally reflect hyperbolic discounting of probability, power discounting of magnitude, and the mathematical consequences of different response rates. Behavior in the CIRP is compared and contrasted with that in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). PMID:24892657

Comparison of multiple obesity indices for cardiovascular disease risk classification in South Asian adults: The CARRS Study.

PubMed

Patel, Shivani A; Deepa, Mohan; Shivashankar, Roopa; Ali, Mohammed K; Kapoor, Deksha; Gupta, Ruby; Lall, Dorothy; Tandon, Nikhil; Mohan, Viswanathan; Kadir, M Masood; Fatmi, Zafar; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Narayan, K M Venkat

2017-01-01

We comparatively assessed the performance of six simple obesity indices to identify adults with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in a diverse and contemporary South Asian population. 8,892 participants aged 20-60 years in 2010-2011 were analyzed. Six obesity indices were examined: body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-height ratio (WHtR), waist-hip ratio (WHR), log of the sum of triceps and subscapular skin fold thickness (LTS), and percent body fat derived from bioelectric impedance analysis (BIA). We estimated models with obesity indices specified as deciles and as continuous linear variables to predict prevalent hypertension, diabetes, and high cholesterol and report associations (prevalence ratios, PRs), discrimination (area-under-the-curve, AUCs), and calibration (index χ2). We also examined a composite unhealthy cardiovascular profile score summarizing glucose, lipids, and blood pressure. No single obesity index consistently performed statistically significantly better than the others across the outcome models. Based on point estimates, WHtR trended towards best performance in classifying diabetes (PR = 1.58 [1.45-1.72], AUC = 0.77, men; PR = 1.59 [1.47-1.71], AUC = 0.80, women) and hypertension (PR = 1.34 [1.26,1.42], AUC = 0.70, men; PR = 1.41 [1.33,1.50], AUC = 0.78, women). WC (mean difference = 0.24 SD [0.21-0.27]) and WHtR (mean difference = 0.24 SD [0.21,0.28]) had the strongest associations with the composite unhealthy cardiovascular profile score in women but not in men. WC and WHtR were the most useful indices for identifying South Asian adults with prevalent diabetes and hypertension. Collection of waist circumference data in South Asian health surveys will be informative for population-based CVD surveillance efforts.

Disparities in Health Care Quality Indicators among US Children with Special Health Care Needs According to Household Language Use.

PubMed

Yu, Stella; Lin, Sue; Strickland, Bonnie

2015-01-01

Lower health care utilization and less favorable health outcomes have been demonstrated in children from Non-English Primary Language households (NEPL) in previous studies. This study examines prevalence of health care quality indicators among US children with special health care needs (CSHCN) and their association with household language use. We used data from the 2009-2010 National Survey of Children with Special Health Care Needs, restricted to an analytic sample of 40,242 children. Logistic regression models were used to examine the effects of primary household language on the attainment of the 6 health care quality indicators for CSHCN. Compared to CSHCN from English primary language households (EPL), CSHCN from NEPL households had 31% higher odds of not feeling like partners in health care decision-making. They had 67% higher odds of lacking care through a medical home and 42% higher odds of reporting inadequate health insurance. NEPL children had 32% higher odds of not receiving early and continuous screening for special health care needs. NEPL youths had 69% higher odds of not receiving services for transition to adulthood. Minority race/ethnicity, lower income and families other than two biological parents all conferred additional risks to not attaining quality indicators. Publicly insured or uninsured CSHCN were also at higher risk. Our study provides compelling evidence that significant disparities exist for CSHCN by primary household language status across all health care quality indicators. Establishment of effective surveillance systems and targeting of outreach programs in both developed and developing countries may lead to improved understanding of health care needs and quality of services and reduction of health disparities for this underserved population.

NZ Government's trend analysis of hospitalised self-harm is misleading.

PubMed

Langley, John; Cryer, Colin; Davie, Gabrielle

2008-04-01

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the trends published in the New Zealand (NZ) Government's 2006 Suicide Trends document for hospitalised self-harm are misleading. Analysis of incident self-harm events resulting in hospitalisation and reference to published material on injury outcome indicators for the NZ Injury Prevention Strategy (NZIPS). The significant increase in rates of self-harm hospitalisation presented in Suicide Trends from 1989 to a large extent reflect changes in recording practice rather than any change in self-harm in the community. Indicators with significantly fewer threats to validity suggest there has been little, if any, increase in the incidence of self-harm. The authors of Suicide Trends did not adequately specify how they defined a case and, moreover, their methods were not consistent with those used for the NZIPS indicators. The methodological challenges to producing valid indicators for the purposes of measuring trends in important non-fatal injury are substantial. Unless we accept that the usual methods of measuring trends in non-fatal injury are misleading and commit to taking up the challenge to produce and use better indicators, we will continue to run the risk of misleading ourselves and the public.

Early Intervention to Support the Academic Recovery of First-Year Students at Risk of Non-Continuation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lizzio, Alf; Wilson, Keithia

2013-01-01

The widening participation agenda and related concerns about student retention require a more systematic focus on supporting student success. This paper describes a process designed with the dual goals of supporting the short-term academic recovery of students at risk of non-continuation due to early difficulties with assessment and developing…

SENSITIVITY OF NORMAL THEORY METHODS TO MODEL MISSPECIFICATION IN THE CALCULATION OF UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMITS ON THE RISK FUNCTION FOR CONTINUOUS RESPONSES. (R825385)

EPA Science Inventory

Normal theory procedures for calculating upper confidence limits (UCL) on the risk function for continuous responses work well when the data come from a normal distribution. However, if the data come from an alternative distribution, the application of the normal theory procedure...

Model Continuation High Schools: Social-Cognitive Factors That Contribute to Re-Engaging At-Risk Students Emotionally, Behaviorally, and Cognitively towards Graduation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sumbera, Becky

2017-01-01

This three-phase, two-method qualitative study explored and identified policies, programs, and practices that school-site administrators perceived as most effective in reengaging at-risk students emotionally, behaviorally, and cognitively at 10 California Model Continuation High Schools (MCHS). Eccles' expectancy-value theoretical framework was…

Assessment of the risk of solar ultraviolet radiation to amphibians. III. Prediction of impacts in selected northern midwestern wetlands.

PubMed

Diamond, Stephen A; Peterson, Gregory S; Tietge, Joseph E; Ankley, Gerald T

2002-07-01

Solar ultraviolet radiation, especially UVB (280-320 nm), has been hypothesized to be at least partially responsible for adverse effects (e.g., declines and malformations) in amphibian species throughout the world. Evaluation of this hypothesis has been limited by the paucity of high-quality UV dose-response data and reliable estimates of typical UV doses that occur in amphibian habitats. In this preliminary risk assessment for effects of UV radiation on amphibians, dose-response relationships quantified in outdoor experiments were compared with UV exposure estimates for 26 wetlands in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. A comparison of wetland doses, derived from model prediction, historical data, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) characterization, with experimental effects levels for green (R. clamitans), northern leopard (R. pipiens), and mink (R. septentrionalis) frogs indicated that the risk of mortality and malformations due to UV exposure is low for the majority of wetlands evaluated. Wetland UV dose, averaged over the entire breeding season, exceeded effects doses for mortality for all three species in two of the 26 wetlands examined and for one species in an additional wetland. On the basis of evidence that shorter term doses caused mortality in amphibian larvae, 3-day doses were also evaluated. In three of the wetlands examined, 3-day doses in excess of 85% of full sunlight (the level that appeared to trigger effects in controlled experimentation) occurred at frequencies ranging 22-100% for all three species and at frequencies ranging from 15% to 58% for R. pipiens and R. septentrionalis in three additional wetlands. Risk of malformation in R. pipiens was apparent in five of the 26 wetlands evaluated. Overall, estimated UVB doses in 21 of the wetlands never exceeded experimental effects doses for mortality or malformations. These results suggest that most amphibians are not currently at significant risk for UVB effects in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin wetlands. However, continued reduction of ozone and other global climate change effects may increase UV doses in wetlands, suggesting that the risk of UV to amphibians should continue to be monitored and studied.

Harmonised pesticide risk trend indicator for food (HAPERITIF): The methodological approach.

PubMed

Calliera, Maura; Finizio, Antonio; Azimonti, Giovanna; Benfenati, Emilio; Trevisan, Marco

2006-12-01

To provide a harmonised European approach for pesticide risk indicators, the Sixth EU Framework Programme recently financed the HAIR (HArmonised environmental Indicators for pesticide Risk) project. This paper illustrates the methodology underlying a new indicator-HAPERITIF (HArmonised PEsticide RIsk Trend Indicator for Food), developed in HAIR, for tracking acute and chronic pesticide risk trends for consumers. The acute indicator, HAPERITIF(ac), is based on the ratio between an estimated short-term intake (ESTI), calculated as recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO), and the acute reference dose (ARfD); the chronic indicator HAPERITIF(chr) is based on the ratio between an estimated daily intake (EDI) and the admissible daily intake (ADI). HAPERITIF can be applied at different levels of aggregation. Each level gives information for proper risk management of pesticides to reduce the risk associated with food consumption. An example of application using realistic scenarios of pesticide treatments on a potato crop in central-northern Italy is reported to illustrate the different steps of HAPERITIF. Copyright 2006 Society of Chemical Industry.

Impact of obesity and body fat distribution on cardiovascular risk factors in Hong Kong Chinese.

PubMed

Thomas, G Neil; Ho, Sai-Yin; Lam, Karen S L; Janus, Edward D; Hedley, Anthony J; Lam, Tai Hing

2004-11-01

Body fat distribution has been reported to differentially contribute to the development of cardiovascular risk. We report the relative associations between general and central obesity and risk factors in 2893 Chinese subjects recruited from the Hong Kong population. Anthropometric parameters [waist circumference (WC) and BMI], surrogate measures of insulin resistance (fasting plasma glucose and insulin, oral glucose tolerance test, 2 hours glucose and insulin), fasting lipids (total, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and triglycerides) and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured. General obesity was classified as BMI > or =25.0 kg/m(2) and central obesity as a WC > or =80 or > or =90 cm in women and men, respectively. A total of 39.2% of the population was found to be obese. Obesity per se increased the levels of the risk factors, but central adiposity contributed to a greater extent to adverse high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, triglyceride, and insulin resistance levels. There was a continuous relationship between increasing obesity, both general and central, and cardiovascular risk, with lowest risk associated with the lowest indices of obesity. In the 1759 nonobese subjects divided into quartiles of BMI or WC, the levels of the cardiovascular risk factors still significantly increased with increasing quartiles of adiposity. Central adiposity appears to contribute to a greater extent than general adiposity to the development of cardiovascular risk in this population. The relationship between obesity parameters and risk is a continuum, with risk factors significantly increasing even at levels usually considered nonobese. These observations support the proposed redefinition of overweight and obesity in Asian populations using lower cut-off points.

Clinical risk and depression (continuing education credit).

PubMed

Sharkey, S

1997-01-22

This article provides information and guidance to nurses on clinical risks in mental health, particularly that of depression. It relates to UKCC professional development category: Reducing risk and Care enhancement.

Does a too risk-averse approach to the implementation of new radiotherapy technologies delay their clinical use?

PubMed

Garcia, R; Nyström, H; Fiorino, C; Thwaites, D

2015-07-01

Radiotherapy is a generally safe treatment modality in practice; nevertheless, recent well-reported accidents also confirm its potential risks. However, this may obstruct or delay the introduction of new technologies and treatment strategies/techniques into clinical practice. Risks must be addressed and judged in a realistic context: risks must be assessed realistically. Introducing new technology may introduce new possibilities of errors. However, delaying the introduction of such new technology therefore means that patients are denied the potentially better treatment opportunities. Despite the difficulty in quantitatively assessing the risks on both sides of the possible choice of actions, including the "lost opportunity", the best estimates should be included in the overall risk-benefit and cost-benefit analysis. Radiotherapy requires a sufficiently high level of support for the safety, precision and accuracy required: radiotherapy development and implementation is exciting. However, it has been anxious with a constant awareness of the consequences of mistakes or misunderstandings. Recent history can be used to show that for introduction of advanced radiotherapy, the risk-averse medical physicist can act as an electrical fuse in a complex circuit. The lack of sufficient medical physics resource or expertise can short out this fuse and leave systems unsafe. Future technological developments will continue to present further safety and risk challenges. The important evolution of radiotherapy brings different management opinions and strategies. Advanced radiotherapy technologies can and should be safely implemented in as timely a manner as possible for the patient groups where clinical benefit is indicated.

Indications, Contraindications, and Complications of Mesh in Surgical Treatment of Pelvic Organ Prolapse

PubMed Central

Ellington, David R.; Richter, Holly E.

2013-01-01

Women are seeking care for pelvic organ prolapse (POP) in increasing numbers and a significant proportion of them will undergo a second repair for recurrence. This has initiated interest by both surgeons and industry to utilize and design prosthetic mesh materials to help augment longevity of prolapse repairs. Unfortunately, the introduction of transvaginal synthetic mesh kits for use in women was done without the benefit of Level 1 data to determine its utility compared to native tissue repair. This report summarizes the potential benefit/risks of transvaginal synthetic mesh use for POP and recommendations regarding its continued use. PMID:23563869

Adverse events after anthrax vaccination reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), 1990-2007.

PubMed

Niu, Manette T; Ball, Robert; Woo, Emily Jane; Burwen, Dale R; Knippen, Maureen; Braun, M Miles

2009-01-07

During the period March 1, 1998 to January 14, 2007, approximately 6 million doses of Anthrax vaccine adsorbed (AVA) vaccine were administered. As of January 16, 2007, 4753 reports of adverse events following receipt of AVA vaccination had been submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). Taken together, reports to VAERS did not definitively link any serious unexpected risk to this vaccine, and review of death and serious reports did not show a distinctive pattern indicative of a causal relationship to AVA vaccination. Continued monitoring of VAERS and analysis of potential associations between AVA vaccination and rare, serious events is warranted.

Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

2008-11-01

In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

Evaluating the 100 year floodplain as an indicator of flood risk in low-lying coastal watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebastian, A.; Brody, S.; Bedient, P. B.

2013-12-01

The Gulf of Mexico is the fastest growing region in the United States. Since 1960, the number of housing units built in the low-lying coastal counties has increased by 246%. The region experiences some of the most intense rainfall events in the country and coastal watersheds are prone to severe flooding characterized by wide floodplains and ponding. This flooding is further exacerbated as urban development encroaches on existing streams and waterways. While the 100 year floodplain should play an important role in our ability to develop disaster resilient communities, recent research has indicated that existing floodplain delineations are a poor indicator of actual flood losses in low-lying coastal regions. Between 2001 and 2005, more than 30% of insurance claims made to FEMA in the Gulf Coast region were outside of the 100 year floodplain and residential losses amounted to more than $19.3 billion. As population density and investments in this region continue to increase, addressing flood risk in coastal communities should become a priority for engineers, urban planners, and decision makers. This study compares the effectiveness of 1-D and a 2-D modeling approaches to spatially capture flood claims from historical events. Initial results indicate that 2-D models perform much better in coastal environments and may serve better for floodplain modeling helping to prevent unintended losses. The results of this study encourage a shift towards better engineering practices using existing 2-D models in order to protect resources and provide guidance for urban development in low-lying coastal regions.

Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

PubMed

Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

2018-08-01

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wildlife toxicity extrapolations: NOAEL versus LOAEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fairbrother, A.; Berg, M. van den

1995-12-31

Ecotoxicological assessments must rely on the extrapolation of toxicity data from a few indicator species to many species of concern. Data are available from laboratory studies (e.g., quail, mallards, rainbow trout, fathead minnow) and some planned or serendipitous field studies of a broader, but by no means comprehensive, suite of species. Yet all ecological risk assessments begin with an estimate of risk based on information gleaned from the literature. One is then confronted with the necessity of extrapolating toxicity information from a limited number of indicator species to all organisms of interest. This is a particularly acute problem when tryingmore » to estimate hazards to wildlife in terrestrial systems as there is an extreme paucity of data for most chemicals in all but a handful of species. This section continues the debate by six panelists of the ``correct`` approach for determining wildlife toxicity thresholds by debating which toxicity value should be used for setting threshold criteria. Should the lowest observable effect level (LOAEL) be used or is it more appropriate to use the no observable effect level (NOAEL)? What are the short-comings of using either of these point estimates? Should a ``benchmark`` approach, similar to that proposed for human health risk assessments, be used instead, where an EC{sub 5} or EC{sub 10} and associated confidence limits are determined and then divided by a safety factor? How should knowledge of the slope of the dose-response curve be incorporated into determination of toxicity threshold values?« less

Stopping decisions: information order effects on nonfocal evaluations.

PubMed

Yu, Michael; Gonzalez, Cleotilde

2013-08-01

We investigated how the order in which information is presented affects when a person decides to stop performing a task. A stopping decision is a decision to stop performing a task on the basis of a sequence of cues. Previous order-effects models do not account for how these contexts limit available working memory for making such decisions. Participants decided how long to perform a task known as the Work Hazard Game that began by rewarding points but later cost points if work continued after an unannounced "emergency." An additive sequence of cues indicated the probability of an emergency. Study I involved a three-group design with cue sequences that indicated the same risk at each decision point but whose final cue presented a high, medium, or low probability. Study 2 had a 2 x 2 design with high or low final cues and an easy or a challenging task. In Study I, participants stopped sooner when the most recent cue presented a high rather than low probability (p = .09), despite the same emergency risk. In Study 2, participants stopped sooner when the most recent cue presented a high rather than low probability for the challenging task but not for the easy task (p = .08). Stopping decisions appear sensitive to the most recent cue observed while experiencing task load. Participants responded to the same risks differently only on the basis of a change in presentation. Findings may be relevant for research and training for hazardous jobs, such as subsurface coal mining, fishing, and trucking.

Twenty-five-year experience with the Björk-Shiley convexoconcave heart valve: a continuing clinical concern.

PubMed

Blot, William J; Ibrahim, Michel A; Ivey, Tom D; Acheson, Donald E; Brookmeyer, Ron; Weyman, Arthur; Defauw, Joseph; Smith, J Kermit; Harrison, Donald

2005-05-31

The first Björk-Shiley convexoconcave (BSCC) prosthetic heart valves were implanted in 1978. The 25th anniversary provided a stimulus to summarize the research data relevant to BSCC valve fracture, patient management, and current clinical options. Published and unpublished data on the risks of BSCC valve fracture and replacement were compiled, and strategies for identifying candidates for prophylactic valve reoperation were summarized. By December 2003, outlet strut fractures (OSFs), often with fatal outcomes, had been reported in 633 BSCC valves (0.7% of 86,000 valves implanted). Fractures still continue to occur, but average rates of OSFs in 60 degrees valves are now <0.1% per year. OSF risk varies markedly by valve characteristics, especially valve angle and size, with weaker effects associated with other manufacturing variables. OSF risks are mildly lower among women than men but decline sharply with advancing age. The risks of valve replacement typically greatly exceed those of OSF. By comparing individualized estimated risks of OSF versus valve replacement, guidelines have been developed to identify the small percentage of BSCC patients (mostly younger men) who would be expected to have a gain in life expectancy should reoperative surgery be performed. Twenty-five years after the initial BSCC valve implants, fractures continue to occur. Continued monitoring of BSCC patients is needed to track and quantify risks and enable periodic updating of guidelines for patients and their physicians.

Successful implementation of clinical practice guidelines for pressure risk management in a home nursing setting.

PubMed

Kapp, Suzanne

2013-10-01

This paper reports an initiative which promoted evidence-based practice in pressure risk assessment and management among home nursing clients in Melbourne, Australia. The aim of this study was to evaluate the introduction and uptake of the Australian Wound Management Association Guidelines for the Prediction and Prevention of Pressure Ulcers. In 2007 a pilot study was conducted. Nurse perspectives (n=21) were obtained via survey and a client profile (n=218) was generated. Audit of the uptake and continued use of the pressure risk screening tool, during the pilot study and later once implemented as standard practice organizational wide, was conducted. Nurses at the pilot site successfully implemented the practice guidelines, pressure risk screening was adopted and supporting resources were well received. Most clients were at low risk of pressure ulcer development. The pilot site maintained and extended their pilot study success, ensuring more than 90% of clients were screened for pressure risk over the 18 months which followed. All other sites performed less well initially, however subsequently improved, meeting the pilot sites success after 18 months. Two years later, the organization continues to screen more than 90% of all clients for pressure risk. Implementation of clinical practice guidelines was successful in the pilot project and pressure risk screening became a well-adopted practice. Success continued following organizational wide implementation. Pilot study findings suggest it may be prudent to monitor the pressure ulcer risk status of low risk clients so as to prevent increasing risk and pressure ulcer development among this group. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Association of Environmental Indicators with Teen Alcohol Use and Problem Behavior: Teens’ Observations vs. Objectively-Measured Indicators

PubMed Central

Byrnes, Hilary F.; Miller, Brenda A.; Morrison, Christopher N.; Wiebe, Douglas J.; Woychik, Marcie; Wiehe, Sarah E.

2017-01-01

Most prior studies use objectively measured data (e.g., census-based indicators) to assess contextual risks. However, teens’ observations might be more important for their risk behavior. Objectives: 1) determine relationships between observed and objective indicators of contextual risks 2) determine relations of observed and objective indicators with teen alcohol use and problem behavior. Teens aged 14–16 (N=170) carried GPS-enabled smartphones for one month, with locations documented. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) measured teens’ observations via texts regarding risk behaviors and environmental observations. Objective indicators of alcohol outlets and disorganization were spatially joined to EMAs based on teens’ location at the time of the texts. Observed and objective disorganization, and objective indicators of alcohol outlets were related to alcohol use. Observed disorganization was related to problem behavior, while objective indicators were unrelated. Findings suggest the importance of considering teens’ observations of contextual risk for understanding influences on risk behavior and suggest future directions for research and prevention strategies. PMID:28061392

Investigating the relationship between neighborhood poverty and mortality risk: A marginal structural modeling approach

PubMed Central

Do, D. Phuong; Wang, Lu; Elliott, Michael R.

2013-01-01

Extant observational studies generally support the existence of a link between neighborhood context and health. However, estimating the causal impact of neighborhood effects from observational data has proven to be a challenge. Omission of relevant factors may lead to overestimating the effects of neighborhoods on health while inclusion of time-varying confounders that may also be mediators (e.g., income, labor force status) may lead to underestimation. Using longitudinal data from the 1990 to 2007 years of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study investigates the link between neighborhood poverty and overall mortality risk. A marginal structural modeling strategy is employed to appropriately adjust for simultaneous mediating and confounding factors. To address the issue of possible upward bias from the omission of key variables, sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of results against unobserved confounding is conducted. We examine two continuous measures of neighborhood poverty – single-point and a running average. Both were specified as piece-wise linear splines with a knot at 20 percent. We found no evidence from the traditional naïve strategy that neighborhood context influences mortality risk. In contrast, for both the single-point and running average neighborhood poverty specifications, the marginal structural model estimates indicated a statistically significant increase in mortality risk with increasing neighborhood poverty above the 20 percent threshold. For example, below 20 percent neighborhood poverty, no association was found. However, after the 20 percent poverty threshold is reached, each 10 percentage point increase in running average neighborhood poverty was found to increase the odds for mortality by 89 percent [95% CI = 1.22, 2.91]. Sensitivity analysis indicated that estimates were moderately robust to omitted variable bias. PMID:23849239

Bioavailability of heavy metals in fresh water Tilapia nilotica (Oreachromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758): potential risk to fishermen and consumers.

PubMed

El-Sadaawy, Manal M; El-Said, Ghada F; Sallam, Neama A

2013-01-01

The study was undertaken to assess the accumulation of some heavy metals (Cr, Co, Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb and Cd) in different tissues (muscle, gills, heart, liver, brain, bone and skin) of Tilapia nilotica. It is one of the most edible fish species in Egypt and was collected from a commercial fish farm in order to evaluate their potential risk to fishermen and consumers. This fish farm is fed with discharged water containing agricultural, industrial, sewage and domestic wastes. The length-weight relation and condition factor calculation of Tilapia nilotica samples showed a significant linear regression (r(2) = 0.920) and an average condition factor of 4.1 g/cm(3). This indicated that the health status for the studied fish samples was good. Metal pollution index (MPI) values for the determined heavy metals in the different tissues reflected that the muscle was the only tissue that had the lowest content. Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake (PTWI) values for the investigated heavy metals were lower than those reported for the permissible limits. The data were evaluated by using ANOVA statistical analysis. For appraising the human health risk effects of heavy metals in fish muscle, estimated dietary intake (EDI) and hazard quotient (HQ) were determined. HQ levels indicated that Cr and Co were the only heavy metals among the determined ones that had values more than unity. Also, their relative contributions in fish consumptions were Cr> Co> Pb> Ni> Cu> Cd> Zn. The highest average HQ value of chromium determined in this study referred to the possible adverse effects of Cr on human health. Accordingly, the potential public health risks from dietary exposure to hazardous contaminants in fish species from fish farms must be continually subjected to research, regulation and debate.

Homocysteine is the confounding factor of metabolic syndrome-confirmed by siMS score.

PubMed

Srećković, Branko; Soldatovic, Ivan; Colak, Emina; Mrdovic, Igor; Sumarac-Dumanovic, Mirjana; Janeski, Hristina; Janeski, Nenad; Gacic, Jasna; Dimitrijevic-Sreckovic, Vesna

2018-04-06

Abdominal adiposity has a central role in developing insulin resistance (IR) by releasing pro-inflammatory cytokines. Patients with metabolic syndrome (MS) have higher values of homocysteine. Hyperhomocysteinemia correlates with IR, increasing the oxidative stress. Oxidative stress causes endothelial dysfunction, hypertension and atherosclerosis. The objective of the study was to examine the correlation of homocysteine with siMS score and siMS risk score and with other MS co-founding factors. The study included 69 obese individuals (age over 30, body mass index [BMI] >25 kg/m2), classified into two groups: I-with MS (33 patients); II-without MS (36 patients). Measurements included: anthropometric parameters, lipids, glucose regulation parameters and inflammation parameters. IR was determined by homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). ATP III classification was applied for diagnosing MS. SiMS score was used as continuous measure of metabolic syndrome. A significant difference between groups was found for C-reactive protein (CRP) (p<0.01) apolipoprotein (Apo) B, HOMA-IR and acidum uricum (p<0.05). siMS risk score showed a positive correlation with homocysteine (p=0.023), while siMS score correlated positively with fibrinogen (p=0.013), CRP and acidum uricum (p=0.000) and homocysteine (p=0.08). Homocysteine correlated positively with ApoB (p=0.036), HbA1c (p=0.047), HOMA-IR (p=0.008) and negatively with ApoE (p=0.042). Correlation of siMS score with homocysteine, fibrinogen, CRP and acidum uricum indicates that they are co-founding factors of MS. siMS risk score correlation with homocysteine indicates that hyperhomocysteinemia increases with age. Hyperhomocysteinemia is linked with genetic factors and family nutritional scheme, increasing the risk for atherosclerosis.

Potential sources of bias in the use of Escherichia coli to measure waterborne diarrhoea risk in low-income settings.

PubMed

Ercumen, Ayse; Arnold, Benjamin F; Naser, Abu Mohd; Unicomb, Leanne; Colford, John M; Luby, Stephen P

2017-01-01

Escherichia coli is the standard water quality indicator for diarrhoea risk. Yet, the association between E. coli and diarrhoea is inconsistent across studies without a systematic assessment of methodological differences behind this variation. Most studies measure water quality cross-sectionally with diarrhoea, risking exposure misclassification and reverse causation. Studies use different recall windows for self-reported diarrhoea; longer periods increase potential outcome misclassification through misrecall. Control of confounding is inconsistent across studies. Additionally, diarrhoea measured in unblinded intervention trials can present courtesy bias. We utilised measurements from a randomised trial of water interventions in Bangladesh to assess how these factors affect the E. coli-diarrhoea association. We compared cross-sectional versus prospective measurements of water quality and diarrhoea, 2-versus 7-day symptom recall periods, estimates with and without controlling for confounding and using measurements from control versus intervention arms of the trial. In the control arm, 2-day diarrhoea prevalence, measured prospectively 1 month after water quality, significantly increased with log 10 E. coli (PR = 1.50, 1.02-2.20). This association weakened when we used 7-day recall (PR = 1.18, 0.88-1.57), cross-sectional measurements of E. coli and diarrhoea (PR = 1.11, 0.79-1.56) or did not control for confounding (PR = 1.20, 0.88-1.62). Including data from intervention arms led to less interpretable associations, potentially due to courtesy bias, effect modification and/or reverse causation. By systematically addressing potential sources of bias, our analysis demonstrates a clear relationship between E. coli in drinking water and diarrhoea, suggesting that the continued use of E. coli as an indicator of waterborne diarrhoea risk is justified. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

High-intensity interval training or continuous training, combined or not with fasting, in obese or overweight women with cardiometabolic risk factors: study protocol for a randomised clinical trial.

PubMed

De Lorenzo, Andrea; Van Bavel, Diogo; de Moraes, Roger; Tibiriça, Eduardo V

2018-04-28

Physical inactivity and increased caloric intake play important roles in the pathophysiology of obesity. Increasing physical activity and modifying eating behaviours are first-line interventions, frequently hampered by lack of time to exercise and difficulties in coping with different diets. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) may be a time-efficient method compared with moderate-intensity continuous training (CT). Conversely, diets with a fasting component may be more effective than other complex and restrictive diets, as it essentially limits caloric intake to a specified period without major diet composition changes. Therefore, the combination of HIIT and fasting may provide incremental benefits in terms of effectiveness and time efficiency in obese and sedentary populations. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of HIIT versus CT, combined or not with fasting, on microcirculatory function, cardiometabolic parameters, anthropometric indices, cardiorespiratory fitness and quality of life in a population of sedentary overweight or obese women with cardiometabolic risk factors. Sedentary women aged 30-50 years, with a body mass index ≥25 kg/m 2 and cardiometabolic risk factors, will be randomised to HIIT performed in the fasting state, HIIT performed in the fed state, CT in the fasting state or CT in the fed state. Cardiometabolic parameters, anthropometric indices, cardiorespiratory fitness, quality of life and microvascular function (cutaneous capillary density and microvascular reactivity evaluated by laser speckle contrast imaging) will be evaluated before initiation of the interventions and 16 weeks thereafter. The trial complies with the Declaration of Helsinki and has been approved by the local ethics committee (Instituto Nacional de Cardiologia, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). All patients provide written informed consent before enrolment and randomisation. The study's results will be disseminated to the healthcare community by publications and presentations at scientific meetings. NCT03236285. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality in urban areas of Spanish cities, 1996–2007

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background While research continues into indicators such as preventable and amenable mortality in order to evaluate quality, access, and equity in the healthcare, it is also necessary to continue identifying the areas of greatest risk owing to these causes of death in urban areas of large cities, where a large part of the population is concentrated, in order to carry out specific actions and reduce inequalities in mortality. This study describes inequalities in amenable mortality in relation to socioeconomic status in small urban areas, and analyses their evolution over the course of the periods 1996–99, 2000–2003 and 2004–2007 in three major cities in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Alicante, Castellón, and Valencia). Methods All deaths attributed to amenable causes were analysed among non-institutionalised residents in the three cities studied over the course of the study periods. Census tracts for the cities were grouped into 3 socioeconomic status levels, from higher to lower levels of deprivation, using 5 indicators obtained from the 2001 Spanish Population Census. For each city, the relative risks of death were estimated between socioeconomic status levels using Poisson’s Regression models, adjusted for age and study period, and distinguishing between genders. Results Amenable mortality contributes significantly to general mortality (around 10%, higher among men), having decreased over time in the three cities studied for men and women. In the three cities studied, with a high degree of consistency, it has been seen that the risks of mortality are greater in areas of higher deprivation, and that these excesses have not significantly modified over time. Conclusions Although amenable mortality decreases over the time period studied, the socioeconomic inequalities observed are maintained in the three cities. Areas have been identified that display excesses in amenable mortality, potentially attributable to differences in the healthcare system, associated with areas of greater deprivation. Action must be taken in these areas of greater inequality in order to reduce the health inequalities detected. The causes behind socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality must be studied in depth. PMID:24690471